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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Kim, Jung Ho; Lee, Dayoung; Hwang, Junseok; Lee, Junmin |
| Abstract: | In the relentless pursuit of urban prosperity and sustainability, cities worldwide are undergoing transformative changes, spurred by the Fourth Industrial Revolution and digital transformation(DX). At the forefront of this evolution are Smart Cities, which leverage cutting-edge information and communication technologies (ICT) to enhance public services and improve the overall quality of life for their inhabitants. These technologically advanced cities utilize data-driven decision-making to optimize various sectors, from mobility to governance, promising a new era of urban living. However, technologies that enable smart cities to develop, also risk deepening the digital divide. ICT infrastructure is a crucial element to smart cities' development, but it often overlooks the disparities in digital access and skills among different demographic groups. Preliminary research predominantly focuses on the technological and industrial components necessary for developing smart cities but falls short in addressing the social dimension, particularly the digital divide. This study aims to bridge this gap by exploring the digital divide within the context of Korean smart cities. The research conducts an empirical analysis of whole South Korean 229 cities and analyzes the impact of ICT infrastructure provision, knowledge-intensive industry specialization, and local governance capability alleviating or exacerbating digital divide. |
| Keywords: | Smart City, Digital Divide, ICT Infrastructure, Knowledge-Intensive Indusrtry, Governance Capability, Spatial Autocorrelation |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb24:302514 |
| By: | Ying Chen; Paul Cheshire; Xiangqing Wang; You-Sin Wang |
| Abstract: | Home delivery reduced the value of cities as locations to access variety in durable consumption goods. Food delivery services (FDS) are doing the same for restaurants. Home-streaming of sports or home-delivered restaurant meals are close but not perfect substitutes for the live experiences. Here we investigate the impact of FDS in Beijing. Employing a Bartik IV strategy, we find that a one standard deviation increase in the number of FDS-accessible restaurants generates a 7.1% increase in property values. The premium is estimated as equivalent to half a top-quality school. FDS appears to be changing how cities deliver welfare from consumption services and so modifies urban land rents and housing attributes. Its value and that of restaurant variety increase with household size but seems to reduce the value of well-equipped kitchens. |
| Keywords: | food delivery services, impact of choice in consumer services, hedonic analysis, changing urban consumption patterns |
| Date: | 2024–09–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2031 |
| By: | Arnone, Massimo; Leogrande, Angelo; Drago, Carlo; Costantiello, Alberto |
| Abstract: | This research explores how regional socioeconomic variables affect the perception of social trust and support networks (PYCC) in Italian regions, and examines the implications for public policy designed to strengthen social cohesion. This study examines the variable "People You Can Count On" (PYCC) from the ISTAT-BES dataset, focusing on its distribution across Italian regions between 2013 and 2022. Using clustering through a k-Means algorithm optimized with the Silhouette coefficient and the Elbow method, three distinct clusters of regions emerged, highlighting significant differences in social support networks. An econometric model was employed to estimate the PYCC variable, factoring in socioeconomic indicators such as employment rates, income inequality, and social participation. The results indicate a complex interplay between socioeconomic conditions and social trust, with regions in the South and Islands showing increased community support, while many Northern regions experienced declines. The study suggests that areas with lower economic conditions often foster stronger social networks, driven by necessity. These findings underline the importance of targeted public policies aimed at fostering social cohesion, particularly in regions facing economic challenges. Policy implications include enhancing education, supporting small enterprises, and promoting social housing and welfare initiatives. Strengthening community participation and volunteering are also highlighted as critical strategies to build resilient support networks. Overall, the research provides valuable insights into the regional disparities of social trust and the role of socioeconomic factors in shaping community support across Italy. |
| Keywords: | Altruism, Social Trust, k-Means, Machine-Learning, Silhouette Coefficient, Elbow Method, Panel Data, Regional Disparities |
| JEL: | D6 D63 D64 D9 J21 |
| Date: | 2024–09–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122076 |
| By: | Rivard, Alexandre; Merkley, Eric; Stecula, Dominik (University of Pennsylvania) |
| Abstract: | A key barrier to ensuring the growth of the housing supply is local opposition to development, often called NIMBYism (Not In My Back Yard). We use pre-registered studies on representative samples of Canadians and Americans to explore the values-based correlates of opposition to local housing development, as well as opposition to public policies designed to remedy the housing crisis. We find that nativism, racial resentment, and moral traditionalism are generally associated with opposition to local housing development, with traditionalism also associated with housing policy opposition. Free-market attitudes and egalitarianism are associated with support for housing policy, particularly when the policies are ideologically consistent. Support for affordable housing is concentrated among those with low racial resentment, traditionalism, nativism, and free-market support, and high levels of egalitarianism. |
| Date: | 2024–09–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:8gkyv |
| By: | Syaikhu Usman |
| Keywords: | regional autonomy, decentralization, local politics |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:3669 |
| By: | Strombotne, Kiersten (Boston University); Day, Sophia (NYC Dept. of Health and Mental Hygiene); Konty, Kevin (NYC Dept. of Health and Mental Hygiene); Fletcher, Jason M. (University of Wisconsin-Madison) |
| Abstract: | Children form social ties along dimensions of gender and race/ethnicity, and thus may differ greatly in exposure to peer health and also in reactivity to peer influence. This paper estimates heterogeneity in the peer effects of obesity along dimensions of gender, race/ethnicity, and socio-economic status for grade-mates within schools. Using data from the New York City (NYC) FITNESSGRAM initiative on over 1.6 million children in grades K-8, we find that males and females are equally responsive to peer effects. We estimate larger differences by race/ethnicity, immigration status and home language, but find no statistically significant differences in peer effects by socio-economic status. Taken together, these findings suggest that policies that reduce obesity could simultaneously widen some existing health disparities due to the heterogeneities in peer effects we uncover. Understanding the dynamics of peer influence is essential for designing policies and programs that seek to leverage social interactions for better health outcomes. |
| Keywords: | peer effects, children, adolescents, obesity, health disparities |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17292 |
| By: | Busso, Matias (Inter-American Development Bank); Montaño, Sebastián (University of Maryland); Muñoz-Morales, Juan S. (IÉSEG School of Management); Pope, Nolan G. (University of Maryland) |
| Abstract: | Teacher quality is a key factor in improving student academic achievement. As such, educational policymakers strive to design systems to hire the most effective teachers. This paper examines the effects of a national policy reform in Colombia that established a merit-based teacher-hiring system intended to enhance teacher quality and improve student learning. Implemented in 2005 for all public schools, the policy ties teacher-hiring decisions to candidates' performance on an exam evaluating subject-specific knowledge and teaching aptitude. The implementation of the policy led to many experienced contract teachers being replaced by high exam-performing novice teachers. We find that though the policy sharply increased pre-college test scores of teachers, it also decreased the overall stock of teacher experience and led to sharp decreases in students' exam performance and educational attainment. Using a difference-in-differences strategy to compare the outcomes of students from public and private schools over two decades, we show that the hiring reform decreased students' performance on high school exit exams by 8 percent of a standard deviation, and reduced the likelihood that students enroll in and graduate from college by more than 10 percent. The results underscore that relying exclusively on specific ex ante measures of teacher quality to screen candidates, particularly at the expense of teacher experience, may unintentionally reduce students' learning gains. |
| Keywords: | teachers, teaching experience, teacher screening, Colombia, test scores, college enrollment |
| JEL: | I25 I28 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17294 |
| By: | Koussihouede, Oswald; Alidou, Sahawal; MSossou, Damase |
| Keywords: | education, Senegal, primary schools |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iob:wpaper:2024.07 |
| By: | Fletcher, Jason |
| Abstract: | A maturing literature across the social sciences suggests important impacts of the intergenerational transmission of crime as well as peer effects that determine youth criminal activities. This paper explores these channels by examining gender-specific effects of maternal and paternal incarceration from both own-parents and classmate-parents. This paper also adds to the literature by exploiting across-cohort, within school exposure to peer parent incarceration to enhance causal inference. While the intergenerational correlations of criminal activities are similar by gender (father-son/mother-son), the results suggest that peer parent incarceration transmits effects largely along gender lines, which is suggestive of specific learning mechanisms. Peer maternal incarceration increases adolescent female criminal activities and reduces male crime and the reverse is true for peer paternal incarceration. These effects are strongest for youth reports of selling drugs and engaging in physical violence. In contrast, the effects of peer parental incarceration on other outcomes, such as GPA, do not vary by gender. |
| Date: | 2024–09–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:35a8w |
| By: | Congressional Budget Office |
| Abstract: | CBO discusses the outlook for housing starts over the next 30 years and describes the methodology behind its projections. (Housing starts are the number of new single-family and multifamily housing units on which construction has been started.) |
| JEL: | E27 O18 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:report:60191 |
| By: | Valentina Sontheim |
| Abstract: | Do detracked classes affect students from different socio-economic backgrounds differently? In the Swiss education system, students are assigned to one of two tracks based on prior achievements at age twelve: approximately 70% are placed in an advanced track and roughly 30% in a basic track. After this assignment, students may either be grouped into classes based on their track or placed in mixed classes with students from both tracks. While tracking is common in many countries, the evidence on its impact remains inconclusive. Understanding this impact is crucial for optimizing school systems to improve students' labor market outcomes later in life. To evaluate the effect of detracked classes, I exploit a unique detracking reform in one Swiss canton, using a difference-in-differences design. This reform, implemented in 2015, changed only how students were grouped into classes, while track assignments remained the same. Before 2015, classes were tracked, meaning they contained only students from either the advanced or basic track. After the reform, classes were detracked, meaning students from both tracks were placed together, while tracks were still assigned. Using individual-level register data for the entire population of Swiss students from 2012 to 2022, I show that the reform dramatically altered class compositions in terms of peers' background characteristics. Since track assignment is correlated with socio-economic background, advanced track students, on average, had for example fewer native speakers in their classes after the reform, and vice versa for basic track students. The likelihood of being assigned to further education, which enables students to pursue tertiary education, increased for the average student due to detracking. My heterogeneity analysis reveals that the overall positive effects were concentrated among socio-economically disadvantaged students. For students whose parents are not tertiary educated and who are not native in the regional language, the probability of further academic education nearly doubled, while more advantaged students did not experience any negative effects. I can rule out changes in curricula, teacher quantity and quality, and motivational factors as mechanisms for these findings, and interpret my main estimates as the causal effects of detracked classes. |
| Keywords: | Education, Inequality, Peer Effects, Detracking |
| JEL: | I24 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iso:educat:0229 |
| By: | Preis, Benjamin |
| Abstract: | Researchers regularly attempt to identify individual housing units as either owner-occupied or renter-occupied. But the data sources available to do so are rarely purpose-built for answering that question. This paper explores the most common approaches used in the literature to identify rental properties in the United States, namely by identifying properties based on characteristics listed within a tax assessment database. This study shows the possible problems associated with the current approaches to identify rental properties based on homestead exemptions or address matching. An underutilized data source — local rental registries — are introduced as a possible alternative in the cities that have them. Differences between rental registries and tax assessment databases are discussed, and the number, count, and type of rental units are compared in five cities. I identify possible sources of disagreement between data sources. This paper cautions researchers who opt to use tax assessment databases, or proprietary data sources, to identify rental units. |
| Date: | 2024–09–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:afzdx |
| By: | Giovanni Bernardo; Pasquale Commendatore; Giovanni Fosco |
| Abstract: | People move for various reasons, including economic, social, political, demographic, and environmental factors. Environmental quality, in particular, plays a crucial role in migration decisions. This study examines the relationship between air pollution (measured as the maximum number of days in which at least one monitoring station detects an excess of 50 µg/m3 of PM10 above the established limit) and internal migration in Italy. Employing a difference-in-differences (diff-in-diff) strategy, our analysis reveals a negative relationship between air pollution and internal migration. We exploit two major legislative interventions in environmental regulation — LD 152/2006 and LD 155/2010 — as exogenous shocks affecting air pollution. We find that these environmental regulations significantly reduced the number of pollution exceeding days in municipal areas, thereby enhancing the attractiveness of those areas more committed to reducing urban emissions. Specifically, the combined effect of the two decrees led to an increase of approximately three new citizens per 1, 000 inhabitants in the more committed areas, highlighting the importance of proactive environmental policies in influencing migration patterns and improving urban livability. |
| Keywords: | Air pollution, Migration, Environmental policy |
| JEL: | O15 Q53 Q56 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pie:dsedps:2024/312 |
| By: | Carrozzo, Salvatore (University of Naples Parthenope); Lodigiani, Elisabetta (University of Padova); Venturini, Alessandra (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | The consumption of cultural goods can play a crucial role in the social and economic integration of immigrants into their destination country. In this paper, we investigate the effect of the cultural national program, IoStudio, designed to enhance the consumption of cultural goods among upper secondary students in Italy, on post-secondary investment in education and early labor market conditions among young immigrants. Using data from a unique survey conducted by the Institute for Multiethnic Studies (ISMU) on a representative sample of the entire immigrant population in the Italian Lombardy region and employing a difference-in-differences estimator, we find that the IoStudio policy has positive effects on investment in post-secondary education. Additionally, young foreigners exposed to the policy exhibit higher earnings, at least in the short run, when they enter the labour market. We claim that cultural consumption by immigrants is a relevant concern, deserving close attention in terms of increasing social capital and labour market inclusion. |
| Keywords: | cultural participation, migrants, integration, Italy |
| JEL: | Z11 J61 J62 I26 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17307 |
| By: | Léonard Moulin; Valeria Maria Urbano |
| Abstract: | Congestion pricing, also referred to as road pricing, is a form of Pigouvian taxation designed to limit or reduce vehicular traffic within a specific area. These systems aim to encourage changes in driving behavior and the choice of transportation mode. An example of a congestion pricing system is the Milan Area C charging zone, which operates on a fixed-rate basis. In recent years, two modifications to the restrictions have been introduced: i) limitations on vehicle types allowed to enter the zone, and ii) a 50 percent increase in congestion charges. By using open data from Area C vehicle access and mobile phone data on overall presence in the area, this study seeks to evaluate the effectiveness of these two restriction policies within the AREA C congestion policy. The findings indicate that both restrictions influenced the choice of transportation mode, with vehicle type limitations having a greater impact than price increases. This evidence showing the effectiveness of vehicle type restrictions and increased charges could support the enhancement of pricing policies and vehicle limitations in Milan and similar cities. Moreover, demographic factors, including the proportion of women and elderly people in the area, significantly influence transportation choices, underscoring the importance of equitable policy implementation to enhance acceptance and effectiveness among more vulnerable groups. |
| Keywords: | congestion charge, road pricing, mobile phone data, traffic congestion, transport, behavior, Milano, Italy, COLLECTE DES DONNEES / DATA COLLECTION, CIRCULATION URBAINE / URBAN TRAFFIC, COMPORTEMENT / BEHAVIOUR, ITALIE / ITALY, TRANSPORT / TRANSPORT |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idg:wpaper:ow6aajiba-ruexq09xdg |
| By: | John List; Haruka Uchida |
| Abstract: | An unsettling stylized fact is that decorated early childhood education programs improve cognitive skills in the short-term, but lose their efficacy after a few years. We implement a field experiment with two stages of randomization to explore the underpinnings of the fade-out effect. We first randomly assign preschool access to children, and then partner with the local school district to randomly assign the same children to classmates throughout elementary school. We find that the fade-out effect is critically linked to the share of classroom peers assigned to preschool access-with enough treated peers the classic fade-out effect is muted. Our results highlight a paradoxical insight: while the fade-out effect has been viewed as a devastating critique of early childhood programs, our results highlight that fade-out is a key rational for providing early education to all children. This is because human capital accumulation is inherently a social activity, leading early education programs to deliver their largest benefits at scale when everyone receives such programs. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:feb:framed:00797 |
| By: | Pascal Beckers; Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Ksenija Ivanović; Sandra M. Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Friedrich Poeschel; Alireza Sabouniha (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of labour shortages on migration aspirations and destination preferences among individuals from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia. Using a two-stage Heckman selection model, we analyse data from the OeNB Euro Survey and the World Bank’s STEP Measurement Program. The results indicate that labour shortages significantly influence migration decisions individuals are more likely to aspire to migrate if there is a shortage of workers in their occupation in the aspired destination countries, while shortages in their home country reduce migration aspirations. These findings suggest that both origin and destination countries should consider labour market conditions when formulating migration policies. For destination countries, highlighting demand for specific skills can attract needed workers, while Western Balkan countries should address the education-labour market mismatch to mitigate local shortages. Policy co-ordination between regions is crucial to manage migration flows and address skill gaps without exacerbating local shortages. |
| Keywords: | migration drivers, migration aspirations/desires, destination decision, choice model |
| JEL: | F22 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:252 |
| By: | Kristian S. Blickle; Evan Perry; João A. C. Santos |
| Abstract: | In support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) creates flood maps that indicate areas with high flood risk, where mortgage applicants must buy flood insurance. The effects of flood insurance mandates were discussed in detail in a prior blog series. In 2021 alone, more than $200 billion worth of mortgages were originated in areas covered by a flood map. However, these maps are discrete, whereas the underlying flood risk may be continuous, and they are sometimes outdated. As a result, official flood maps may not fully capture the true flood risk an area faces. In this post, we make use of unique property-level mortgage data and find that in 2021, mortgages worth over $600 billion were originated in areas with high flood risk but no flood map. We examine what types of lenders are aware of this “unmapped” flood risk and how they adjust their lending practices. We find that—on average—lenders are more reluctant to lend in these unmapped yet risky regions. Those that do, such as nonbanks, are more aggressive at securitizing and selling off risky loans. |
| Keywords: | floods; climate change; mortgages |
| JEL: | G21 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:98848 |
| By: | Brian Bell; Philip Johnson |
| Abstract: | We examine the wage and occupation outcomes for cohorts of immigrants who arrived in the UK since 2002. Using the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) with a matched migrant identifier, we can follow a 1% sample of all workers (native and migrant) within and across jobs. This also allows us to identify relative attrition rates between natives and migrants. The work focuses in particular on workers who arrived in the UK since 2004 as part of EU expansion. Consistent with prior work, we find substantial evidence of occupational downgrading for these migrants. Importantly, the panel data allows us to track these workers in subsequent years and we find very little evidence of substantial labour market improvement from initial entry. This result is robust to accounting for non-random attrition. |
| Keywords: | wages, immigration |
| Date: | 2024–09–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2032 |
| By: | Blit, Joel; Skuterud, Mikal; Zhang, Ruiwen |
| Abstract: | A key objective of Canada's International Education Strategy (2014) isto leverage Canada's postsecondary institutions to attract and retain the world's "best and brightest" students to raise the average skill of the Canadian population and boost economic growth. However, evidence suggests that Canada's former international students experience significant labour market integration challenges, and the Strategy overlooks these challenges. The earnings disparities of former international students, and Canadian immigrants more generally, are usually interpreted as evidence of skill underutilization owing to employer discrimination against racial and ethnic minorities. Hard evidence of skill underutilization is, however, scant due to a dearth of data providing direct measures of workers' skills. Our study brings new evidence to bear on the skill underutilization hypothesis by examining a unique linkage of student records from the University of Waterloo, including students' grades, with immigration data from Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada and T1 income tax returns from the Canada Revenue Agency. UWaterloo is best known for its academic programs in computer science, mathematics, and engineering, which has earned it the moniker the "MIT of the North." Evidence that UWaterloo's international student graduates struggle in Canadian labour markets relative to their Canadian-born counterparts graduating from the same academic programs with similar academic standing provides a direct test of the skill underutilization hypothesis. The evidence also offers critical lessons on whether policy efforts to realize the full economic potential of international students are best directed at augmenting employer hiring behaviour through DEI initiatives, for example, or at improving the attraction and selection of international talent and promoting skill formation, including language training. |
| Keywords: | Migration policy, Students, Strategy, Labor market integration, Canada |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:clefwp:303035 |
| By: | Popov, Vladimir; Konchakov, Roman; Didenko, Dmitry |
| Abstract: | The previous research with incomplete data revealed that zemstva expenditure on education per capita were higher in regions with low level of education, but these spending did not make much of a difference – human capital in these regions remained relatively low (Popov, Konchakov, Didenko, 2024). The results reported in this paper provide additional and more rigorous proof that zemstva activities and the increase in their spending for education in 1897-1913 contributed to the spread of primary education and to the decline in the inequality of the distribution of human capital not only between the regions |
| Keywords: | educational attainment, school enrollment, inequality, land distribution, growth |
| JEL: | D63 I24 J24 N93 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–09–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122162 |
| By: | Ghasemi, Parisa (University of Coimbra); Teixeira, Paulino (University of Coimbra); Carreira, Carlos (University of Coimbra) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we investigate the impact of the share of the foreign labor force on the wage of native workers in Portugal between 2010 and 2019 using linked employer-employee data from Quadros de Pessoal. By leveraging job characteristics from the O*NET skill taxonomy, we create more homogeneous skill groups, enabling a precise analysis of immigration's impact on specific skill sets. The empirical analysis, focusing on occupation-experience groups, reveals a positive association between native wages and immigrant shares. In contrast, when groups are based on education-experience, the relationship appears negative. These contradictory findings suggest that the impact of immigration on native wages varies significantly depending on how labor markets are segmented. Furthermore, our analysis demonstrates a positive and statistically significant effect on native wages in high-skilled occupations, while native wages in low-skilled occupations are negatively affected due to increased competition. Our findings highlight the importance of considering occupation classification over simple education levels and suggest that diverse results in existing literature may be due to sample averaging. |
| Keywords: | immigration, native wages, native-immigrants' complementarities |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17266 |
| By: | Goulas, Sofoklis (Brookings Institution); Gunawardena, Bhagya N. (RMIT University); Megalokonomou, Rigissa (Monash University); Zenou, Yves (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | Using Greek administrative data, we examine the impact of being randomly assigned to a classroom with a same-gender top-performing student on both short- and long-term educational outcomes. These top performers are tasked with keeping classroom attendance records, which positions them as role models. Both male and female students are influenced by the performance of a same-gender top performer and experience both spillover and conformist effects. However, only female students show significant positive effects from the presence of a same-gender role model. Specifically, female students improved their science test scores by 4 percent of a standard deviation, were 2.5 percentage points more likely to choose a STEM track, and were more likely to apply for and enroll in a STEM university degree 3 years later. These effects were most pronounced in lower-income neighborhoods. Our findings suggest that same-gender peer role models could reduce the underrepresentation of qualified females in STEM fields by approximately 3 percent. We further validate our findings through a lab-in-the-field experiment, in which students rated the perceived influence of randomized hypothetical top-performer profiles. The results suggest that the influence of same-gender top performers is primarily driven by exposure-related factors (increased perception of distinction feasibility and self-confidence) rather than direct interactions. |
| Keywords: | role models, random peer group formation, natural experiment, lab-in-the-field experiment, gender gap, self-confidence, STEM |
| JEL: | J24 J16 I24 I26 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17271 |
| By: | Francesco D'Alessandro (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy); Enrico Santarelli (, Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy - Global Labor Organization (GLO), Essen, Germany); Marco Vivarelli (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy – UNU-MERIT, Maastricht, The Netherlands – IZA, Bonn, Germany) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we integrate the insights of the Knowledge Spillover Theory of Entrepreneurship and Innovation (KSTE+I) with Schumpeter's idea that innovative entrepreneurs creatively apply available local knowledge, possibly mediated by Marshallian, Jacobian and Porter spillovers. In more detail, in this study we assess the degree of pervasiveness and the level of opportunities brought about by AI technologies by testing the possible correlation between the regional AI knowledge stock and the number of new innovative ventures (that is startups patenting in any technological field in the year of their foundation). Empirically, by focusing on 287 Nuts-2 European regions, we test whether the local AI stock of knowledge exerts an enabling role in fostering innovative entry within AI-related local industries (AI technologies as focused enablers) and within non AI-related local industries, as well (AI technologies as generalised enablers). Results from Negative Binomial fixed-effect and Poisson fixed-effect regressions (controlled for a variety of concurrent drivers of entrepreneurship) reveal that the local AI knowledge stock does promote the spread of innovative startups, so supporting both the KSTE+I approach and the enabling role of AI technologies; however, this relationship is confirmed only with regard to the sole high-tech/AI-related industries. |
| Keywords: | KSTE+I, Artificial Intelligence, innovative entry, enabling technologies |
| JEL: | O33 L26 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie5:dipe0039 |
| By: | Nishesh Chalise; Alice Kassens; William M. Rodgers; Nicole Summers-Gabr |
| Abstract: | An analysis examines the rates of U.S. young adults who aren’t in school or working—that is, “disconnected”—by where they live and by race and ethnicity. |
| Keywords: | young adults; education; labor markets |
| Date: | 2024–08–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:98704 |
| By: | Kipchumba, Elijah (Trinity College Dublin); Porter, Catherine (Lancaster University); Serra, Danila (Texas A&M University); Sulaiman, Munshi (BRAC University) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the impact of a role model intervention on the gender attitudes, college aspirations and education outcomes of youths in Somalia. In 2018, we randomly selected elementary schools to receive a visit from a college student. Within each treatment school, we selected four grades, two to receive a visit from a female college student and two from a male college student. The "role models" gave unscripted talks about their personal study journeys, including challenges and strategies to overcome setbacks. Six months after the intervention we found a significant and large impact of (only) female role models on boys' and girls' attitudes toward gender equality but no impact on college aspirations. Data collected two and four years later from the cohorts graduating primary school produce smaller and non-significant treatment effects on the survey outcomes, but positive impacts on enrollment in high school and a lower probability of early marriage as reported by teachers. |
| Keywords: | role models, education, gender, aspirations, field experiment, Somalia |
| JEL: | J16 O12 I25 C93 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17261 |
| By: | Hayo, Bernd (University of Marburg); Roth, Duncan H.W. (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | A sizeable literature analyses how immigration affects attitudes towards migrants and discusses differences between socio-economic groups and their potential correlation with perceived concerns about labour market competition. Against the background of the large-scale influx of refugees into Germany between 2015 and 2016, this paper uses data from a unique and representative survey of the German population to assess whether respondents express fears of job loss due to immigration. We focus on the importance of perceptions of migrants' ability to do one's job in relation to these fears. Moreover, we compare concerns about refugees with those about EU migrants and propose several hypotheses. Our findings indicate that: (i) Respondents are more likely to view EU migrants as potential competitors in the labour market. (ii) Workers in blue-collar occupations and without tertiary education are more likely to view migrants as potential competitors on the labour market. (iii) The perception of potential competition from migrants strongly predicts fear of job loss. Once we control for this perception, occupation and skill levels are no longer significantly related to the probability of reporting fear of job loss. Moreover, there are no longer significant differences between the two migrant groups. (iv) Anti-migrant sentiments are also associated with concerns about job loss. |
| Keywords: | refugees, EU migration, immigration, labour market, perceptions, competition, job loss, Germany |
| JEL: | F22 J61 D84 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17278 |
| By: | Sule Alan; Michela Carlana; Marinella Leone |
| Abstract: | We evaluate an intervention designed to increase teachers’ awareness of social isolation by providing them with their own students’ social network and information on developmental risks associated with social exclusion. Using friendship data and incentive-compatible measures of antisocial and prosocial behavior, we find that the intervention reduces social isolation and antisocial behavior without improving prosocial behavior. The reduction in antisocial behavior leads to better economic outcomes in treated classrooms, measured by average payoffs and the Gini coefficient. Our findings highlight the personal and communal benefits of alleviating social exclusion and antisocial peer relationships in schools. |
| JEL: | C93 I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32954 |
| By: | Daniel, Lyrian; Lang, Michaela; Barlow, Cynthia; Phibbs, Peter; Baker, Emma; Hamilton, Ian |
| Abstract: | Housing that is in poor physical condition has direct negative health impacts for occupants, is more expensive to run and reduces Australia’s ability to mitigate and adapt to climate change. This research investigates what is needed to lift the quality of Australian housing to align with international standards so as to address problems associated with aged and ill-performing housing stock in both the owned and rented sectors. The research explores different strategies for improving housing through voluntary programs and mandatory legislation, and found: a national strategy to improve residential building quality should be developed mandatory disclosure of dwelling energy performance could improve how markets consider the performance of houses offered for sale or lease more appropriate accounting methods of the benefits provided by improved housing standards are needed. To improve the building quality of Australian housing stock, it is important to investigate how and why governments make policy about the quality of Australian housing stock. Change is difficult because of both the challenges of getting government attention and pressure from strong property industry lobbyists, but it is not impossible. One of the sharp lessons from the case studies is that having research evidence is not enough; change needs key elements such as building a convincing narrative to tell a plausible story of a social problem (including coverage of the evidence in the popular media) together with a ‘coalition of support’. A national strategy to improve residential building quality should be developed and include the following regulatory mechanisms: improved performance standards for new houses; mandatory disclosure of dwelling energy performance; and minimum housing standards for the rental sector. |
| Date: | 2024–09–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:6592m |
| By: | Martin Grote; Jean-François Wen |
| Abstract: | Property taxes are often under-exploited sources of local public revenues. A broad-based tax, raised at modest rates, can potentially generate significantly higher revenues in many countries, and meet most of the costs of improved local public services. This note provides a practical guide to designing and implementing reforms to recurrent taxes on immoveable property and real estate transfer taxes. It addresses the fundamental policy choices regarding the property tax base and tax rate, and the key functions of the tax administration for managing collections – valuation, billing, and enforcement. The advice in the note stems from a review of the literature and insights gained from the experiences of the Fiscal Affairs Department in delivering capacity development on property taxes. It covers and updates some of the analytical work by Norregaard (2013) while providing granular advice on practical aspects of reforming property taxes. The note is motivated by the resource mobilization needs of developing countries, but the design considerations are also pertinent for advanced and emerging market economies seeking to increase the revenue productivity of property taxes. |
| Keywords: | property tax; recurrent tax; real estate; real property transfer tax; tax reform; implement property tax reform; property tax tax collection; revenue identity; property tax administration; property tax system; Tax administration core functions; Transaction tax; Estate tax; Africa |
| Date: | 2024–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfhtn:2024/006 |
| By: | Bernard Deschamps; Philippe Gachon; Michel Leclerc; Mathieu Boudreault (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | In Québec, flood damage costs have risen sharply over the past 40 years, partly due to population and property growth in flood-prone areas. This phenomenon is exacerbated by extreme weather events, such as torrential rains, some of which are on the rise in southern Québec in spring. Today, these costs are primarily covered by provincial and federal financial assistance programs and, to a lesser extent, by private insurance. These cost-sharing mechanisms give rise to moral hazard because they do not encourage municipalities or disaster victims to reduce risk. Municipalities need to be included in cost sharing because of their crucial role in land use planning and risk management. Similarly, disaster victims need to be included because they also have a role to play in reducing risk. This paper proposes and analyzes an economic contribution mechanism for municipalities that distributes the cost of damage to residential buildings more equitably. (Equity refers to a fair and just distribution of the financial burden based on the relative level of exposure to risk and the ability to reduce the risk for all parties involved.) The contribution is calculated for three medium-sized municipalities in Québec based on the sum of the average annual damage to each of the residential buildings located in their jurisdictions, and on property values. Three observations are drawn from this analysis: 1) a municipality's level of exposure is not correlated with its property value; 2) the low damage rate of a majority of buildings located in flood-prone areas justifies maintaining these buildings in these zones, provided that mitigation measures are implemented; and 3) relocating a minimum number of buildings would considerably reduce the municipality's economic contribution to damage costs. Implementing an economic contribution mechanism for municipalities and exposed citizens is intended to reduce the moral hazard and inequity generated by the current approach and encourage municipalities to implement mitigation and risk reduction measures. All stakeholders could equitably finance these measures. |
| Keywords: | flood damage, flood risk sharing, moral hazard, economic equity, municipal contribution |
| JEL: | H76 H84 Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mfg:wpaper:69 |
| By: | Shin, Hyun Bang |
| Abstract: | While appreciating the novelty of conceptualizing urban state venturism, this commentary proposes that the state’s role as capital can be clearly evidenced by the urbanization of state capital, which involves the active deployment of state-owned corporations in the global East amid the region’s pursuit of rapid and developmental urbanization and industrialization. |
| Keywords: | urban state venturism; urbanization of state capital; state capitalism; state developmentalism; global East |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–09–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125354 |
| By: | Dean Corbae; Andrew Glover; Michael Nattinger |
| Abstract: | We develop a simple equilibrium model of rental markets for housing in which eviction occurs endogenously. Both landlords and renters lack commitment; a landlord evicts a delinquent tenant if they do not expect total future rent payments to cover costs, while tenants cannot commit to paying more rent than they would be able or willing to pay given their outside option of searching for a new rental. Renters who are persistently delinquent are more likely to be evicted and pay more per quality-adjusted unit of housing than renters who are less likely to be delinquent. Evictions due to a tenant’s inability to pay are never socially efficient, and lead to lower quality investment in housing and too few vacancies relative to the socially optimal allocation. Government policies that restrict landlords’ ability to evict can improve welfare relative to laissez-faire, but a full moratorium on evictions only raises welfare when it is temporarily adopted in response to a large adverse shock. Finally, rent support can effectively eliminate evictions even without covering all missed rent and delivers significantly larger gains than eviction restrictions. |
| JEL: | E60 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32898 |
| By: | Hernández de Rojas, Félix; Pita, Pilar Rodríguez; Pérez Martínez, Jorge Emiliano |
| Abstract: | Lately, we have seen a growing concern for competitiveness, strategic autonomy, and the rising of digital divide in the European Digital Single Market. To tackle these issues, in 2023 the EU1 set forth the Digital Decade program that "empowers businesses and people in a human-centred, sustainable and more prosperous digital future"2, with the aim of attracting investment and creating an innovative and digital ecosystem "made in Europe". However, Europe faces a set of barriers that arise from the cultural, linguistic, and societal differences that exist between the Member States and that do not exist in other largely populated countries in Asia or America. Throughout our research, we have clustered the 240 NUTS2 regions of the EU by their digitalisation, based on the Digital Economy and Society Index, and their competitiviness, based on the EU Regional Competitiviness Index, and their respective variables. we have made use of the Moran's I and Geary's C that allows us to determine the degree of clustering of EU regions and giving us a hint on which regions are more susceptible to "digital contagion", and which regions are most likely of be left behind because of lack of this phenomena. Our research identifies the above aspects and analyzes them within the heterogeneity of digitalization situations in the regions, identifying those where this "digital contagion" or "spatial spillover" works satisfactorily and where it does not, as well as considering whether national or EU policies are relevant to this end. |
| Keywords: | Digital Contagion, Spatial Autocorrelation, NUTS2, European Union, Competitivity |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb24:302495 |
| By: | Turati, Riccardo (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes whether natives with a network abroad have a distinctive cultural stance compared to similar individuals without such connections within the same region. Using individual-level data on connectedness from the Gallup World Poll across 2, 256 within-country regions over 148 countries, it characterizes the cultural stance based on three traits: pro-social behavior, religiosity and gender-egalitarian attitudes. The paper shows that natives who have a connection abroad are characterized by stronger pro-social behavior, religiosity and genderegalitarian attitudes. To address potential biases arising from omitted variables, it controls for an extensive array of individual characteristics and region-by-year fixed effects. The results are also consistent after employing comprehensive measures of connectedness, employing matching techniques, and assessing selection biases related to unobservable factors. Finally, by leveraging both country and individual-level heterogeneity, the analysis indicates that the pro-social behavior stance of connected individuals is fairly consistent across different contexts and individuals, while the findings on religiosity and gender-egalitarian attitudes are more sensitive to local and individual factors. The paper therefore shows that factors enhancing or dampening this relation are cultural trait specific. |
| Keywords: | cultural traits, connectedness, social remittances, international migration |
| JEL: | F22 O15 Z10 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17270 |
| By: | Manaka, Kyoko; Kikuchi, Hinata; Nakamura, Akihiro |
| Abstract: | Efforts to promote the widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), which contribute to the realization of a carbon-neutral society, are being discussed. According to the Japan Automobile Dealers Association, the share of EVs in new passenger car sales was approximately 1.16% in the period ending December 2024, with a total share of about 1.85%. Past surveys related to Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs)indicate that factors such as driving range and vehicle specifications, as well as the availability of charging facilities, are key to their widespread adoption (Pysalska et al., 2022; Phillipsen et al., 2020; Khan et al., 2017; Kudoh and Motose, 2010). There are different types of EV charging facilities, such as regular recharging facilities which take several hours to charge for a 100 km drive and fast charging facilities which take about 30 minutes to charge for a 100 km drive. The installation cost of the former is relatively low, and it can be installed in individual homes using subsidies. In contrast, the installation cost of the latter ranges from 10 to 20 million yen, making it impractical for individual homes and used by the public in a manner similar to current gasoline stations. Additionally, there are Super-fast charging facilities called Superchargers, dedicated to Tesla vehicles, which allow significantly faster charging than fast charging facilities. Currently, fast charging facilities are mainly installed in locations such as automobile dealerships, convenience stores, roadside stations, and expressways (SA/PA), with 40% of installations at automobile dealerships, while only 10% are at convenience stores and roadside stations/highways (Source: March 2023, e-mobility power charging spot list). On the other hand, regular recharging facilities are installed mainly in destinations with long stay times such as hotels and shopping malls, in addition to individual home installations. The necessity for adequate recharging facilities is evident as BEV usage can only become widespread if users have convenient access to recharging options. In Japan, over 29, 000 recharging facilities exist, with approximately 70% being regular recharging facilities and 30% being fast recharging facilities. It is relatively easy to install in detached houses but challenging in apartment buildings. According to the "Housing and Land Statistics Survey" by the Statistics Bureau of Japan in 2018, 53.6% of households live in detached houses, and 43.5% live in apartment buildings, with the percentage of apartment dwellers reaching 71% in Tokyo. This higher ratio in urban areas presents a challenge to the widespread installation of charging facilities. While installing regular recharging facilities in individual homes is relatively easy, in apartment-type residences, it is necessary to obtain approval from the residents' association, which is organized by the inhabitants, to install charging facilities in communal parking areas. these households face significant constraints in installing personal recharging stations in their parking spaces. This is one reason why apartment dwellers hesitate to purchase BEVs. Charging facilities remain idle when not in use and are suitable for shared use. In fact, public fast recharging facilities are used as shared infrastructure. While regular recharging facilities are generally installed in individual homes and are not typically considered for shared use, the advancement of ICT and the widespread ownership of smartphones suggest that shared use of regular recharging facilities in individual homes would be quite feasible. Previous studies highlight the critical role of ICT in optimizing various services and systems, including transportation. For instance, Benevolo et al. (2016) and Jittrapirom et al. (2017) emphasize how ICT can enhance smart mobility and user-centered mobility services. Breidbach and Brodie (2017) discuss the sharing economy's reliance on ICT for facilitating value co-creation and engagement. Billhardt et al. (2019) demonstrate how ICT improves the matching efficiency of cab dispatch services. These studies would indicate that ICT may contribute the matching efficiency of recharging facilities online. In Japan, currently, it is possible to search for recharging facilities online, but there are not many facilities that can be reserved via apps. If recharging facilities become more widely available, and if it becomes possible to check their real-time availability and make reservations using a smartphone app, this is likely to increase the willingness to purchase EVs. Especially in Japanese urban areas with a high ratio of apartment dwellers, the efficient use of infrastructure, including regular recharging facilities, is essential for high EV adoption rates. Based on this awareness, this study aims to explore the impact of enhanced availability of charging facilities, such as through sharing and online reservations, on the intention to purchase BEVs in urban areas of Japan with high apartment dwelling ratios. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb24:302467 |
| By: | Rodríguez-Puello, Gabriel; Rickardsson, Jonna |
| Abstract: | Little is known about the spatial diffusion of the effects of economic shocks on the labor market. We use the mining boom resulting from the unexpected increase in the international prices of resources, geocoded microdata originating from administrative registers of individuals in Sweden, and dynamic difference-in-differences specifications to assess the spatial diffusion of economic shocks on labor market outcomes; we focus specifically on people to determine who is affected by the mining boom. We find consistent short- and long-lasting positive effects of the mining boom on individual earnings that spread as far as 83 km from the mining site. We also find a large gain in earnings and employment for residents directly employed in the mining sector, accompanied by significant spillover effects in other sectors. Furthermore, we find evidence of the migration of young, nonmarried, and highly educated individuals to the mining area, who obtain benefits from the mining boom in terms of earnings and employment; this is especially true for migrants who relocate to work directly in the mining sector. |
| Date: | 2024–09–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:tzmf2 |
| By: | Rahim Darma |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:3648 |
| By: | Lavrič, Mitja; Lenarčič, Črt |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we focus on the analysis of the drivers of LSTI ratio dynamics. Against this backdrop, we try to bridge this gap by introducing an average synthetic LSTI calculation and examine how various factors affect the LSTI ratio of borrowers that took out consumer and housing loans in Slovenia based on monthly frequency data spanning from the beginning of 2020 to the end of 2023. We note that the general growth of the incomes of consumers who took out loans inhibited the growth of the average LSTI ratio. Factors affecting the LSTI ratio had an offsetting effect on the LSTI ratio of consumers who took out a consumer loan, while factors affecting the LSTI ratio caused an increase in the LSTI ratio of consumers who took out a housing loan. One of the more important factors that influenced the growth of the LSTI ratio of consumers who took out a housing loan was the increase in the interest rate for housing loans. |
| Keywords: | Macroprudential policy, LSTI Ratio, Borrower-Based Measures. |
| JEL: | C10 C40 E58 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122036 |
| By: | AUTERI Davide (European Commission - JRC); ATTARDO Carmelo (European Commission - JRC); BERZI Matteo (European Commission - JRC); DORATI Chiara (European Commission - JRC); ALBINOLA Federico; BAGGIO Lara; BUCCIARELLI Giuseppe; BUSSOLARI Ioris; DIJKSTRA Lewis (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Quantitative indicators at the local level play an increasingly important role in the formulation and evaluation of regional policies. Regional statistical indicators are available from several sources, but comparability of their time-series is often affected by breaks caused by boundary changes (split or merge of regions) that modify the shape of the concerned areas over time. ARDECO (Annual Regional Database of the European Commission) aims to offer full comparability of long and harmonised time-series of demographic and socio-economic variables at the regional and sub-regional level. ARDECO is released on a quarterly basis, with two major releases in correspondence of the public availability of the AMECO Spring (May) and Autumn (November) economic forecasts. The two major releases are complemented by a release in March, which includes the annual update of regional accounts from Eurostat, and by an interim release during the summer. In case of need, minor versions are also released at other times of the year. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:termod:202402 |
| By: | Stephan Heblich; Stephen J. Redding; Yanos Zylberberg |
| Abstract: | We examine the distributional consequences of trade using the New World Grain Invasion that occurred in the second half of the 19th century. We use a newly-created dataset on population, employment by sector, property values, and poor law transfers for over 10, 000 parishes in England and Wales from 1801–1901. In response to this trade shock, we show that locations with high wheat suitability experience population decline, rural-urban migration, structural transformation away from agriculture, increases in welfare transfers, and declines in property values, relative to locations with low wheat suitability. We develop a quantitative spatial model to evaluate the income distributional consequences of this trade shock. Undertaking counterfactuals for the Grain Invasion, we show that geography is an important dimension along which these income distributional consequences occur. |
| JEL: | F14 F16 F66 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32958 |
| By: | Arindrajit Dube; Michael Reich; Akash Bhatt; Denis Sosinskiy |
| Abstract: | Dube, Lester and Reich (2010, DLR), using state minimum wage discontinuities across bordering counties and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, did not detect negative minimum wage effects on restaurant employment. Jha, Neumark and Rodriguez-Lopez (2024, JNR) claim that looking within multi-state commuting zones and using County Business Patterns data provides a superior approach to DLR and does find disemployment effects. We show that JNR’s results are confounded by parallel trends violations in the 1990s, when minimum wage events were rare and small in magnitude; JNR’s outmoded two-way-fixed-effects model amplifies the biases introduced by these violations. Our estimates using their specifications and data on only post-2000 data fail to detect disemployment effects. The same results hold using QCEW and ACS datasets. Our preferred event study difference-in-differences approach, which analyzes only data that fall clearly within an event’s window, also does not detect negative employment effects. This result holds whether we compare across all states, look within commuting zones or within border county pairs, and regardless of the data set or time period. |
| JEL: | J20 J39 J88 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32902 |
| By: | Rhys Murrian (Department of Economics and SoDa Labs, Monash University); Paul A. Raschky (Department of Economics and SoDa Labs, Monash University); Klaus Ackermann (Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics and SoDa Labs, Monash University) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates how an individual’s network influences their purchase and subsequent use of experience goods. Utilising data on the network and game-ownership of over 108 million users from the world’s largest video game platform, we analyse whether a user’s friendship network influences their decision to purchase single-player video games. Our identification strategy uses an instrumental variable (IV) approach that employs the temporal lag of purchasing decisions from second degree friends. We find strong peer effects in the individual game adoption in the contemporary week. The effect is stronger if the friend who purchased the game is an old friend compared to a key player in the friendship network. Comparing the results to adoption decisions for a major label game, we find peer effects of a similar size and duration. However, the time subsequently spent playing the games is higher for players who were neither influenced by a peer who is a key player nor an old friend. Considering the increasing importance of online networks on consumption decisions, our findings offer some first insights on the heterogeneity of peer effects between old and key player friends and also provide evidence in consumers' biases in social learning. |
| Keywords: | networks, experience goods, product adoption, taste projection |
| JEL: | D12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajr:sodwps:2024-03 |
| By: | Yang, Dongkyu |
| Abstract: | The idea that labor scarcity can induce economic development has been long hypothesized (Hicks, 1932; Habakkuk, 1962), but the evidence is scarce, especially on non-agricultural development. In this paper, I assess the role of the Second Great Migration (1940-1970) on the subsequent structural change in the American South between 1970 and 2010. Empirical results using shift-share instruments show that out-migration incentivized physical capital investment and capital-augmenting technical change, increasing capital and output per worker in both agriculture and manufacturing at least until 2010. Labor reallocated from agriculture to nonagriculture. I then develop and calibrate a dynamic spatial equilibrium model that allows substitution between factors of production, factor-biased technical change, and Heckscher–Ohlin forces in trade. The quantitative results indicate that the adjustments to the Second Great Migration could have contributed to 7% of the total decrease in agricultural employment between 1940 and 2010 in the South. The contribution analyses suggest that labor-capital substitution played a leading role in economic adjustment to the migration, with capital-biased technical change and the quasi-Rybczynski effect playing important supplementary roles. |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:dtxn4 |
| By: | Carrieri, Vincenzo (University of Calabria); de Blasio, G. (International Monetary Fund); Ferrara, Andreas (University of Warwick); Nisticò, Rosanna (University of Calabria) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides insights into the design of effective location-based policies. In the context of European regional policy, we use algorithms to predict regions that are likely to underutilize funding and identify the key determinants of their low absorptive capacity. We then use a regression discontinuity design (RDD) to document that EU funds are ineffective in recipients predicted to have low absorptive capacity while increasing output and employment in high-capacity regions. Our approach allows early identification and targeting of interventions to increase regional spending capacity based on publicly available data and standard algorithms, thereby facilitating implementation by policymakers. |
| Keywords: | program design, location-based policies, machine learning |
| JEL: | C21 F35 H77 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17308 |
| By: | Benison Thomas (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Trinh Le (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | Home equity release refers to financial products that allow people to access the equity that is tied up in their own homes. Home equity is a large part of household wealth in New Zealand, making it an important asset that could potentially be used to fund retirement. However, the take-up of equity release products such as reverse mortgages is very low. This research examines whether home equity release schemes currently available in the New Zealand market provide value for money and how they might provide a suitable form of retirement income for some people. The available data confirm the existence of many households with low retirement income and high housing wealth, highlighting those who stand to potentially gain from home equity release. Assessments of the features and costs of current home release schemes, alongside worked examples using realistic values, highlight the scenarios when home equity release may (or may not) be beneficial. Depending on current circumstances and future financial needs, home equity release may be a suitable form of retirement income for some retirees but not for others. |
| Keywords: | Home equity release; reverse mortgage; wealth decumulation; retirement |
| JEL: | J14 J26 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtu:wpaper:24_03 |
| By: | Sara MacLennan |
| Abstract: | Being on the move can spiral our mood up or down. There is well-known evidence that walking and cycling can directly improve our mental health as well as our physical health1; many of us have experienced feelings of freedom when driving a car or riding a bicycle; as well as the moments of calm when sitting in a comfortable train, being carried across the country. Yet public transport can induce stress when crowded, as can a commute by car and evidence tends to show that commuting in general is not enjoyed. Not moving when we should be is even worse: surveys of wellbeing 'in the moment' show that one of the very few things which people rate as worse than commuting is waiting while commuting: waiting in a traffic jam, or waiting for a bus that seems like it will never come. |
| Keywords: | transport, roads, travel |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepops:65 |
| By: | Stefania Albanesi; Domonkos F. Vamossy |
| Abstract: | Credit scores are critical for allocating consumer debt in the United States, yet little evidence is available on their performance. We benchmark a widely used credit score against a machine learning model of consumer default and find significant misclassification of borrowers, especially those with low scores. Our model improves predictive accuracy for young, low-income, and minority groups due to its superior performance with low quality data, resulting in a gain in standing for these populations. Our findings suggest that improving credit scoring performance could lead to more equitable access to credit. |
| JEL: | C45 D14 E27 G21 G24 G5 G51 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32917 |
| By: | Günther, Maria; Höcker, Martin Christian; Pfnür, Andreas |
| Abstract: | In the current dynamic business environment, companies are faced with a wide range of economic and social changes. Through the ongoing war for talent, employer branding is becoming increasingly relevant for companies to attract and retain employees. Simultaneously, the change in social values leads to sustainability becoming a decisive criterion for many employees when choosing their employer. In response to these changes, many companies are focusing on a sustainability-oriented employer brand. Corporate real estate (CRE) can contribute to the employer branding success by meeting the employee’s sustainability requirements and communicating the sustainability-oriented employer brand. However, the increasing pluralisation of social values means that the sustainability orientations and employee requirements can differ greatly from one another. Therefore, companies and their corporate real estate management (CREM) must know their employer brand target group and which sustainability requirements they place on CRE. The aim of the present study is to analyse these real estate-related sustainability requirements of employees. By examining the relevance of the respective sustainability dimensions (ecological, economic, social) from the employees' perspective, a "fit" between employee requirements and CRE can be established in order to contribute to successful employer branding. This study analyses survey data from N = 937 German office workers. Hierarchical cluster analysis is applied to identify employee groups and their assessment of the relevance of the sustainability dimensions in the real estate context. The cluster analysis reveals a general importance of all three sustainability dimensions for the identified employee groups. However, user satisfaction and, thus, social sustainability are rated highest for all identified groups. The results suggest that the perception of sustainability-related impacts of office properties has a decisive influence on the employees' assessment. Thus, CREM can positively influence the perception of the company's real estate as well as the company itself through sustainable action. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:149745 |
| By: | Dardati, Evangelina; Laurent, Thibault; Margaretic, Paula; Thomas-Agnan, Christine |
| Abstract: | Using a comprehensive dataset of bilateral migration flows and employing the Palmer index as a proxy for climate change, we demonstrate that conflict acts as an amplifying mechanism for climate-induced migration. Our results show that, as drought conditions worsen, middle- and high-income countries experiencing conflict are more inclined to have higher rates of international out-migration. In particular, we find that one standard deviation contraction in the Palmer index, indicating drier conditions, is associated with a 12% increase in out-migration flows from middle/high-income countries experiencing conflict. We also explore spatial autocorrelation and observe positive and significant origin-and destination-spatial dependence effects. Our findings contribute to understanding the intricate dynamics of climate change, conflict, and international migration while offering insights into migration patterns across countries. |
| Keywords: | Migration flows, climate change, conflict, droughts |
| JEL: | C31 F22 Q34 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:129726 |
| By: | Trinidad, Jose Eos (The University of Chicago); Lancet, Daniel; Wang, Lin-Chiun |
| Abstract: | Empirical information on education nonprofits is needed to understand their impact, variation, and distribution. Using tax data from 233, 897 nonprofits, this paper highlights three clusters of nonprofits (educational institutions, professional improvement organizations, associational groups), subdivided into ten groups and 29 types. It presents their distribution and offers other insights. Spatially, nonprofits are prevalent in large states and cities, but the top 500 cities only make up half of all nonprofits. Temporally, there has been an explosion of nonprofits founded since 2010, many driven by professional rather than associational organizations. Financially, more than half of nonprofits reported zero revenue and assets. We discuss various data strengths and limitations, opportunities for new research, and contribution to education policy and politics. |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9u8v6 |
| By: | Yueling Huang |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on employment. Exploiting variation in AI adoption across US commuting zones using a shift-share approach, I find that during 2010-2021, commuting zones with higher AI adoption have experienced a stronger decline in the employment-to-population ratio. Moreover, this negative employment effect is primarily borne by the manufacturing and lowskill services sectors, middle-skill workers, non-STEM occupations, and individuals at the two ends of the age distribution. The adverse impact is also more pronounced on men than women. |
| Keywords: | Artificial intelligence; technology; labor; local labor markets; shift share |
| Date: | 2024–09–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/199 |
| By: | Corinth, Kevin (American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research); O’Rourke, Thomas (American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research); Winship, Scott (American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | There have been several attempts to measure social capital—the value inhering in relationships—at an aggregate level, but researchers lack comprehensive individual-level social capital measures. Using a combination of direct linkage and imputation across several nationally representative datasets, we produce a comprehensive measure of social capital at the individual level. We validate our measure by aggregating it to the state level, finding strong correlations with existing state-level social capital measures. We document substantial social capital disparities between white Americans, on the one hand, and black and Hispanic Americans, on the other, as well as a strong educational gradient, which is comparatively weaker for Hispanics. We also provide new evidence on the relationship between income and social capital, using a comprehensive measure of income. We find that social capital increases with income but at a decreasing rate. The source of income matters, as an extra $10, 000 in market income is associated with a 0.23 standard deviation increase in social capital for those with the lowest levels of market income, while an extra $10, 000 in government transfer income is associated with a 0.08 standard deviation decrease. |
| Keywords: | social capital, comprehensive income, inequality |
| JEL: | Z13 J12 D31 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17257 |
| By: | Vincent P. Roberdel (Eindhoven University of Technology); Ioulia V. Ossokina (Eindhoven University of Technology); Vladimir A. Karamychev (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Theo A. Arentze (Eindhoven University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Energy efficiency improvements in low income housing are increasingly used as a policy instrument to alleviate poverty. Our paper shows that this may come at the expense of reduced environmental benefits. We follow 125, 000 Dutch low-income households during eight years and exploit a quasi-experimental policy that diminished the heat losses in their homes. We pay specific attention to the policy effects at the very left tail of the income distribution. While the average after-policy reduction in natural gas consumption for heating amounts to 22%, the poorest only save 16%. We build and calibrate a microeconomic model explaining this pattern from substitution between thermal comfort and other goods, and use it to compute welfare trade-offs of the policies. |
| Keywords: | Energy-efficient homes, Social housing, Poverty, Quasi-experiment, Retrofit, Welfare effects |
| JEL: | D12 Q4 Q48 Q5 |
| Date: | 2023–12–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20230082 |
| By: | Bernardi, Marta; Zeller, Sarah; Rotich, Rebecca |
| Abstract: | The study provides empirical evidence that a targeted policy can backfire because information signals affect non-targeted units. Specifically, the analysis of the policy aimed at regulating the harvesting of juvenile fish in Peru's Anchovy Fishery, by temporarily closing areas with high juvenile catch percentages, reveals an unintended increase of 48% in the overall seasonal juvenile catch percentage. This appears to be due to substantial spatial and temporal spillovers generated by the policy that reduces search costs for fishers. The study combines administrative micro-data used by the regulator to generate closures with biologically richer data from fishing firms. All results are easily computationally reproducible within a 5-hour time frame, except for the synthetic controls robustness check, which takes a considerable amount of time (appr. 64 hours) but works. We stress the robustness and reproducibility of the study by testing whether the analysis is robust to the use of different types of standard errors, and the findings appear unaffected. Overall, the full analysis and graphic outputs of the paper are reproducible using the publicly available complementary data and code from the AEJ website despite minor code interpretability challenges. |
| Keywords: | information spillovers, targeted policies, place-based policies, fisheries, Peru |
| JEL: | Q28 O13 Q56 D83 Q22 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:156 |
| By: | Crowner, Jarah; Chen, Katherine L. |
| Abstract: | Motor vehicle traffic fatalities are a public health problem in the United States. In 2022, there were 42, 514 people killed and another 2.38 million people injured on U.S. roadways (National Center for Statistics and Analysis [NCSA], 2024). These fatalities are a leading cause of death and kill over 116 people each day. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS), in 2022, for people ages 15-24, motor vehicle crashes were the leading cause of death in the United States (CDC, 2022). Across all age groups, motor vehicle crashes are in the top 10 leading causes of death. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt9b88z0gs |
| By: | Riukula, Krista; Väänänen, Touko |
| Abstract: | Abstract Effects on labour market outcomes are often referred to when discussing the wider economic benefits of transport projects. However, research on the topic in the Finnish context is scarce. Thus, proponents of transport projects may put exaggerated hopes on the labour market effects when arguing for the projects. This review aims to give researchers a good starting point for analyzing the labour market effects of transport projects in Finland. We review theoretical frameworks and recent empirical literature on the effects of transport projects and accessibility on the labour market. We discuss the available data sources in Finland and methodological considerations for analyzing causal effects. Furthermore, we explore the integration of labour market impacts into cost-benefit analyses considering, for example, the risk of double-counting benefits. |
| Keywords: | Transport project, Labour market, Wider economic impacts, Empirical research |
| JEL: | R42 H43 J68 H54 |
| Date: | 2024–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:wpaper:120 |
| By: | Leogrande, Angelo; Drago, Carlo; Arnone, Massimo |
| Abstract: | The article explores the diffusion of online sales tools among Italian enterprises with at least ten employees, considering regional inequalities through methods that help address economic policy. The study gives an overall assessment of the adoption of e-commerce among Italian SMEs, using multiple methods that help to identify regional disparities and provide insight for policymakers. The data were obtained from the ISTAT-BES database. Analysis was applied using the k-Means machine learning algorithm by comparing the Silhouette coefficient vs. the Elbow method. The elbow method reveals greater expository capacity, and the optimal number of clusters equals 3. The econometric analysis used the following methods: Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Panel Data with Random Effects, Weighted Least Squares-WLS, and Dynamic Panels at 1 Stage. The results show that cultural and creative employment and regular internet users are positively associated with SMEs active in e-commerce while negatively associated with the family's availability of at least one computer and internet connection. Finally, the article compares different machine learning algorithms to predict the future value of SMEs active in e-commerce. The results are discussed critically. |
| Keywords: | e-Commerce, Small and Medium Enterprises, Regional Inequalities, Panel Data, k-Means, Machine-Learning. |
| JEL: | O3 O30 O31 O32 O33 O34 O38 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122115 |
| By: | Nicholas Bloom; Gordon B. Dahl; Dan-Olof Rooth |
| Abstract: | There has been a dramatic rise in disability employment in the US since the pandemic, a pattern mirrored in other countries as well. A similar increase is not found for any other major gender, race, age or education demographic. At the same time, work from home has risen four-fold. This paper asks whether the two are causally related. Analyzing CPS and ACS microdata, we find the increase in disability employment is concentrated in occupations with high levels of working from home. Controlling for compositional changes and labor market tightness, we estimate that a 1 percentage point increase in work from home increases full-time employment by 1.1% for individuals with a physical disability. A back of the envelope calculation reveals that the post pandemic increase in working from home explains 80% of the rise in full-time employment. Wage data suggests that WFH increased the supply of workers with a disability, likely by reducing commuting costs and enabling better control of working conditions. |
| JEL: | J14 J20 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32943 |
| By: | Lakhwinder Singh (Punjabi University, Patiala); Nirvikar Singh (University of California, Santa Cruz, USA); Prakarsh Singh (Plaksha University, Mohali, Punjab) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the state of Punjab’s economy, reasons for its current situation, prospects for growth, and policies to enable that growth. Punjab’s economy is characterized by slow growth, societal challenges, and environmental degradation. We identify four interrelated issues that act as constraints on the Punjab economy. First, driven largely by dependence on the central government’s food procurement policy, and its specific nature, the state remains heavily agricultural in a narrow manner. Second, Punjab’s fiscal situation is constrained in ways that make fiscal policy dysfunctional: related causal factors include the agricultural structure and the state’s political economy. Both physical and soft infrastructure have been negatively affected by the problems in public finances. Third, a combination of regional and domestic politics during an era of liberalization has disadvantaged the state, with existing manufacturing industries declining, and new industries and services not emerging rapidly enough. Fourth, both individual human capital and institutional or organizational capital have either failed to develop, or have deteriorated in some dimensions over recent decades, making Punjab less innovative and less attractive for new investment. The paper argues that prospects for meaningful economic development in Punjab will depend on collaboration between the state and national governments, including fiscal support from the latter to deal with switching costs and accumulated fiscal issues. We also discuss several specific policy areas, including agricultural diversification, industrial development and innovation, cross-border services, and decentralization to the local level. |
| Keywords: | : Punjab, India, growth, development, agriculture, industrialization, public finances |
| JEL: | H70 O13 O14 O15 O43 |
| Date: | 2024–05–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:169 |
| By: | Görlitz, Katja (Hochschule der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (HdBA)); Heß, Pascal (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Tamm, Marcus (Hochschule der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (HdBA)) |
| Abstract: | This study provides a policy evaluation of laws allowing early school enrollment of children, i.e., enrollment before the official school starting age. It investigates the effects of early enrollment on educational attainment, wages and employment. While the school starting age is usually determined by children's date of birth and legal cutoffs, some German states allowed early enrollment in some years. Exploiting state and cohort variation, the results show that male early enrollees attain fewer years of schooling, enter the labor market earlier and have a larger labor market attachment at around age 16. Positive wage effects persist until approximately age 35. Results for women roughly resemble those for men but they are less convincingly estimated. |
| Keywords: | early enrollment policy, early school entry, wages, employment, school starting age |
| JEL: | I28 J21 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17303 |
| By: | Francesco G. Caloia (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Kees van Ginkel (Deltares Delft); David-Jan Jansen (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | We study whether floods can affect financial stability through a credit risk channel. Our focus is on the Netherlands, a country situated partly below sea level, where insurance policies exclude property damages caused by some types of floods. Using geocoded data for close to EUR 650 billion in real estate exposures, we consider possible implications of such floods for bank capital. For a set of 38 adverse scenarios, we estimate that flood-related property damages lead to capital declines that mostly range between 30 and 50 basis points. We highlight how starting-point loan-to-value ratios are one important driver of capital impacts. Our estimates focus on property damages as the main transmission channel and are also subject to a number of assumptions. If climate change continues, more frequent floods or flood-related macrofinancial disruptions may have stronger implications for financial stability than our estimates so far indicate. |
| Keywords: | floods, financial stability, real estate, credit risk, climate change |
| JEL: | G21 Q54 R30 |
| Date: | 2023–12–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20230083 |
| By: | Ma, Mingye (University of Southampton); Riener, Gerhard (University of Southampton); Xu, Youzong (University of Nottingham Ningbo China) |
| Abstract: | We explore the role of self- and peer evaluations in education, with a particular emphasis on gender differences. We construct a model of (self-)deception to predict outcomes for scenarios with and without self-evaluation. By using unique data from a first-year economics class at a Sino-UK university, we examine how students assess their own and their peers' contributions to group projects under varying self-assessment conditions. Our findings reveal a significant self-serving bias across both genders, though with subtle distinctions. Women, despite greater societal recognition, exhibit smaller self-social evaluation gaps (SSEG). The variation in abstention rates between treatments is mainly attributed to lowerperforming males. These findings indicate that the possibility of self-assessment influences rating behavior, potentially exacerbating gender disparities and affecting gender equity. |
| Keywords: | higher education, incentives, field experiment, peer evaluation, gender |
| JEL: | D01 D91 I23 C93 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17267 |
| By: | Carter, Charles (University of Bath); Delaney, Judith M. (University of Bath); Papps, Kerry L. (University of Bradford) |
| Abstract: | We exploit a spatial discontinuity in the wages paid by the United Kingdom's National Health Service to examine how wages affect the duration of time a vacancy is advertised. NHS workers in inner London are mandated by law to be paid an extra 4.3% more than those who work in outer London. We use a regression discontinuity design and estimate an elasticity of duration with respect to wages of -6.3. This number is larger than reported by previous studies and suggests that firms can fill worker shortages faster by raising wages. This also highlights the importance this margin of worker recruitment when analysing firm search and job match. Our results are robust to various checks including a placebo test using fictitious borders and are robust to changes in the bandwidth and the duration measure. The estimates are similar across all occupational groups in the NHS and are not limited to jobs that require specific skills such as nurses and therapists. Our results provide evidence for policy makers which suggests that increasing the wages paid to NHS workers may lead to increased cost savings by reducing the need to hire expensive agency staff and may also lead to better health outcomes of the population through reduced staff shortages. |
| Keywords: | vacancy duration, wages, employer search |
| JEL: | J22 J23 J31 J38 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17273 |
| By: | Gary Cornwall; Marina Gindelsky |
| Abstract: | Inequality statistics are usually calculated from high-quality, comprehensive survey or administrative microdata. Naturally, this data is typically available with a lag of at least 9 months from the reference period. In turbulent times, there is interest in knowing the distributional impacts of observable aggregate business cycle and policy changes sooner. In this paper, we use an elastic net, a generalized model that incorporates lasso and ridge regressions as special cases, to nowcast the overall Gini coefficient and quintile level income shares. National accounts data, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, are used (starting in 2000) as features instead of the underlying microdata to produce a series of distributional nowcasts for 2020–2022. These nowcasts predict turning points with at least 85 percent accuracy across all metrics and minimal errors relative to na¨ıve models. We find we could plausibly create advance inequality estimates approximately one month after the end of the calendar year, reducing the present lag by almost a year. |
| Keywords: | inequality, income distribution, national accounts, nowcasting, machine learning |
| JEL: | C52 C53 D31 E01 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2024-003 |
| By: | Johannes Boehm; Thomas Chaney |
| Abstract: | What caused the end of antiquity, the shift of economic activity away from the Mediterranean towards northern Europe? We assemble a large database of coin flows between the 4th and 10th century and use it to document the shifting patterns of exchange during this time period. We build a dynamic model of trade and money where coins gradually diffuse along trade routes. We estimate the parameters of this model and recover time-varying bi-lateral trade flows and real consumption from data on the spatial and temporal distribution of coins. Our estimates suggest that technical progress, increased minting, and to a lesser degree the fall in trade flows over the newly formed border between Islam and Christianity contributed to the relative growth of Muslim Spain and the Frankish lands of northern Europe and the decline of the Roman-Byzantine world. Our estimates are consistent with the increased urbanization of western and northern Europe relative to the eastern Mediterranean from the 8th to the 10th century. |
| Keywords: | gravity models, international trade, market access, diffusion |
| Date: | 2024–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2030 |
| By: | Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre (Sabanci University); Akyol, Pelin (Bilkent University); Aydemir, Abdurrahman B. (Sabanci University); Demirci, Murat (Koc University); Kirdar, Murat Güray (Bogazici University) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the intergenerational effects of the 1997 compulsory schooling reform in Turkey, which extended compulsory schooling from five to eight years, on the developmental outcomes of children aged 36 to 59 months. We draw upon data from the 2018 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey, which features a comprehensive module on early childhood development (ECD), and estimate the impact of mothers' exposure to education reform using RDD. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in maternal educational attainment and corresponding enhancements in children's readiness to learn. Exploring the underlying mechanisms, we find a notable expansion in the number and variety of activities parents, especially fathers, engage in with their children. In a further examination of parental outcomes, we find evidence pointing to narrower educational and age disparities between partners, suggesting an improvement in mothers' agency—aligned with the heightened engagement of fathers with their children. Despite the typical emphasis on mothers in ECD research, our study indicates a significant enhancement in fathers' involvement with their children accompanied by improvement in children's cognitive outcomes. |
| Keywords: | compulsory education, early child development, parental investment, mother's agency, cognitive skills |
| JEL: | H52 I26 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17249 |
| By: | Winters-Michaud, Clayton P.; Haro, Alfredo; Callahan, Scott; Bigelow, Daniel P. |
| Abstract: | The United States has a total land area of 2.26 billion acres. In 2017, the major uses of land were grassland pasture and rangeland at 659 million acres (29 percent of the U.S. total), forest-use land at 622 million acres (28 percent), cropland at 390 million acres (17 percent), special uses (primarily parks and wildlife areas) at 318 million acres (14 percent), miscellaneous other uses (such as wetlands, tundra, and unproductive woodlands) at 197 million acres (9 percent), and urban land at 74 million acres (3 percent). This study presents findings from the most recent (2017) inventory of U.S. major land uses, drawing on data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, the U.S. Department of Transportation, the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Department of the Interior, and various other sources. The data sources are collected for each State to estimate the use of several broad classes and subclasses of agricultural and nonagricultural land over time. National and regional trends in land use are discussed using earlier major land-use estimates dating back to 1945. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Crop Production/Industries, Land Economics/Use, Livestock Production/Industries, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersib:345316 |
| By: | Clément Cariou (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Amélie Charles (Audencia Business School, Nantes); Olivier Darné (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we develop nowcasting models for the Pays-de-la-Loire's jobseekers, a dynamic French regional economy. We ask whether these regional nowcasts are more accurate by only using the regional data or by combining the national and regional data. For this purpose, we use penalized regressions, random forest and dynamic factor models as well as dimension reduction approaches. The best nowcasting performance is provided by the DFM estimated on the regional and regional-national databases as well as the Elastic-Net model with a prior screening step for which the national data are the most frequently selected data. For the latter, it appears that the Change in foreign orders in the industry sector, the OECD Composite leading indicator and the BdF Business sentiment indicator are among the major predictors. |
| Keywords: | Jobseekers nowcasting regional data variable selection penalized regression factor model. JEL Classification: C53 C55 E01 E17 O40, Jobseekers, nowcasting, regional data, variable selection, penalized regression, factor model. JEL Classification: C53, C55, E01, E17, O40 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04675599 |
| By: | Alrababah, Ala; Marble, William; Mousa, Salma; Siegel, Alexandra Arons (University of Colorado Boulder) |
| Abstract: | Positive intergroup contact has been shown to improve attitudes toward stigmatized minorities. A concern with the contact paradigm is that it may place unreasonable demands on minorities to be high-performers. Are minorities judged more harshly for under-achieving relative to the majority group? Conversely, are minorities more readily rewarded for their success? We use evidence from English top-tier soccer to answer these questions. We measure how journalists and fans react to players’ performances, using objective measures of performance. We find little evidence of discrimination based on nationality and ethnicity. These results are consistent across three diverse datasets consisting of millions of social media posts, hundreds of thousands of newspaper articles, and tens of thousands of Fantasy Premier League transfers. The discrimination we do uncover — when players perform extremely poorly — is small in magnitude, and often runs counter to the expected direction. Journalists and fans punish poor performances, but not differentially so based on player identity. The results suggest that minorities need not uphold ‘model minority’ myths in order to be accepted. |
| Date: | 2024–09–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:7d2cu |