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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Jarod Apperson (Spelman College, Department of Economics); Carycruz Bueno (Department of Economics, Wesleyan University) |
| Abstract: | Little is known about how students exposed to violence affect peers. Combining nine years of student data with geocoded police records from a large urban school district, I measure spillovers using plausibly exogenous variation in peer group composition. My results suggest a peer’s exposure to violence has little effect on academic achievement. Adding an additional peer exposed to at-home violence to a classroom of 20 students reduces English and math scores by 0.006 standard deviations, an amount not statistically distinguishable from zero. Results are measured precisely enough to reject achievement reductions greater than 0.017 standard deviations with ninety-five percent confidence. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wes:weswpa:2024-011 |
| By: | Thiemo Fetzer (The University of Warwick and University of Bonn & CEPR); Jacob Edenhofer (University of Oxford); Prashant Garg (Imperial College Business School) |
| Abstract: | Support for right-wing populist parties is characterised by considerable regional heterogeneity and especially concentrated in regions that have experienced economic decline. It remains unclear, however, whether the spatial externalities of local decline, including homelessness and crime, boost support for populist parties, even among those not directly affected by such decline. In this paper, we contribute to filling this gap in two ways. First, we gather novel data on a particularly visible form of local decline, high-street vacancies, that comprise 83, 000 premises in England and Wales. Second, we investigate the influence of local decline on support for the right-wing populist UK Independence Party (UKIP) between 2009 and 2019. We find a significant positive association between high-street vacancy rates and UKIP support. These results enhance our understanding of how changes in the lived environment shape political preferences and behaviour, particularly in relation to right-wing populism. |
| Keywords: | Local Economic Conditions, Populism, High-street Vacancies, Unemployment, Urban Transformation |
| JEL: | D72 R11 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:335 |
| By: | Letizia Gambi; Kristof De Witte |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the education outcomes at the end of primary ed ucation in the presence of multiple shocks. Using the exact same formative test since 2019, we document how learning deficits accumulate over time due to existing negative trends in a school system and the amplifying effects of disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Comparing the standardised test data at school level from the Flemish region of Belgium before and after the school closures suggests that in three years’ time the grade 6 school education outcomes decreased on average by -0.47 SD in the Dutch language, -0.31 SD in the French foreign language, -0.12 SD in mathematics, -0.11 SD in science and remained the same in social sciences. At student level, the estimates present the same significance and direction of the sign, although with lower magnitude. The learning deficits seem to accelerate over time, partly driven by the weak performance of the best-performing students, and exacerbated in schools with high shares of teacher shortages. Controlling for time varying and school fixed effects, one percentage point increase in unfilled vacancies is associated with a a decrease of -0.04 SD in the Dutch language, and -0.05 SD in math pro ficiency. Summer schools seem to mitigate part of the learning deficits. The within-school inequality in test scores has not been reduced since the start of the pandemic. Despite an ongoing increase in between-school inequality in test scores, it slowed down in both 2021 and 2022. |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:leerwp:746839 |
| By: | Hannah Kotula (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); David C. Maré (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper summarises distinct housing and demographic patterns across neighbourhoods in New Zealand’s main urban areas, using data from the 2018 Census of Population and Dwellings. It uses exploratory factor analysis to classify neighbourhood types. It contributes background information for a broader research programme - WERO: Working to End Racial Oppression. |
| Keywords: | Housing markets; housing-market discrimination |
| JEL: | J15 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtu:wpaper:24_53 |
| By: | Greg Buchak; Gregor Matvos; Tomasz Piskorski; Amit Seru |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the recent National Association of Realtors (NAR) settlement, this note examines the effects of reduced real estate agent commissions on home prices, housing turnover, and consumer welfare. Using a calibrated dynamic structural search model of the housing market, we explore how lowering agent commissions might influence market equilibrium. Our analysis highlights the importance of accounting for the dynamic nature of the housing market, consumer heterogeneity, and general equilibrium effects when assessing these outcomes. Contrary to the claims of some media commentators and consumer advocates, our findings suggest that reducing agent fees generally leads to higher house prices. This occurs because lower future transaction costs increase the value of housing as a durable asset. While reduced agent fees typically enhance consumer welfare by lowering the cost of homeownership, we find that most of these benefits are likely to accrue to current homeowners rather than prospective buyers. Furthermore, financially constrained households may see diminished benefits due to the expected rise in home prices. Our analysis also offers insights into the redistributive effects of technological innovations in the housing market aimed at reducing transaction costs. |
| JEL: | G0 G2 G50 L0 R20 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32855 |
| By: | Schmitz, Gloria M. |
| Abstract: | Personal protective equipment (PPE) litter plagued the urban environment during the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on data from 15 neighborhoods in the Boston, Massachusetts, United States, including primary geocoded PPE waste data, and socioeconomic and social capital data from secondary datasets, this study used hot spots-cold spots analysis and bivariate Spearman correlations to examine spatial patterns, and associations between PPE waste and key variables. The results showed that neighborhoods with lower social capital and lower median household income had higher amounts of PPE litter overall and per 100, 000 residents. Areas with more high-tech waste bins had less PPE litter, whereas PPE litter tended to cluster around major hospital and medical facility locations. These findings can help inform urban and regional policymakers about where to place smart Wi-Fi-enabled waste receptacles, ways to target public information campaigns aimed at enhancing urban waste-reduction dynamics, and how to optimize waste collection using geospatial metrics. |
| Date: | 2024–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:d2k5s |
| By: | Jack Liebersohn; Jesse Rothstein |
| Abstract: | Rising interest rates can create “mortgage rate lock” for homeowners with fixed rate mortgages, who can hold onto their low rates as long as they stay in their homes but would have to take on new mortgages with higher rates if they moved. We show mobility rates fell in 2022 and 2023 for homeowners with mortgages, as market rates rose. We observe both absolute declines and declines relative to homeowners without mortgages, who are unaffected by mortgage rate lock. Mobility declines are not explained by changes in home values. Overall, our estimates imply that rising interest rates reduced mobility in 2022 and 2023 for households with mortgages by 16% and caused $20 billion of deadweight loss. |
| JEL: | G51 R21 R23 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32781 |
| By: | Broockman, David; Elmendorf, Christopher S.; Kalla, Joshua |
| Abstract: | Voter support for anti-development policies contributes to America's acute housing shortage. Prevailing theories of support for anti-development policies emphasize NIMBYism (opposition to housing nearby) and homeowners' self-interest. We offer an additional explanation drawing on symbolic politics theory. This theory argues that voters have positive or negative affect towards various symbols, often developed early in life; later, they evaluate policies based on their affect towards relevant symbols. In line with the theory, we show that affect towards salient symbols powerfully explain anti-development preferences. First, homeowner-renter gaps in support for increasing density in cities are negligible, but affect towards cities powerfully predicts support for density. Next, experiments show that affect towards developers, government entities, and new housing's residents also explain anti-development preferences when policies make these symbols visible; homeownership and NIMBYism often fail to predict patterns we find. Finally, consistent with a role for socialization, historical public opinion data suggests that birth cohort helps explain affect towards cities. |
| Date: | 2024–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:surv9 |
| By: | Anne Brockmeyer; Francisco Garfias; Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato |
| Abstract: | Can the provision of public goods strengthen the fiscal capacity of governments in developing countries and move them toward an equilibrium of widespread tax compliance? We present evidence of the impact of local public infrastructure on tax compliance, leveraging a large public investment experiment and individual property tax records from Mexico City. Despite the salience and large effects of these investments on access to infrastructure, property values, and local economic development, we find no changes in property tax compliance and can rule out even small increases. These null effects persist even when taxpayers are reminded about the tax-benefit link. |
| JEL: | H41 H71 O23 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32776 |
| By: | Autor, David (MIT); Dorn, David (University of Zurich); Hanson, Gordon H. (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | Previous research finds that the greater geographic mobility of foreign than native-born workers facilitates labor market adjustment to shifting regional economic conditions. We examine immigration's role in enabling U.S. commuting zones to respond to manufacturing job loss caused by import competition from China. Although foreign-born population headcounts fell by a larger proportion than those of the native-born in trade-exposed regions, the contribution of immigration to labor market adjustment in this episode was small. Because most U.S. immigrants arrived in the country after manufacturing regions were already mature, few took jobs in industries that later saw import surges. The foreign-born population share in regions with high trade exposure was only three-fifths that in regions with low exposure. Immigration may do more to aid adjustment to cyclical shocks, in which job loss follows recent hiring booms, than to aid adjustment to secular decline, in which hiring booms occurred longer ago. |
| Keywords: | immigration, import competition, geographic labor mobility, manufacturing decline, job loss |
| JEL: | E24 F14 F16 J23 J31 L60 O47 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17213 |
| By: | QIN, Abby Youran |
| Abstract: | Media effects research overwhelmingly focuses on mass media’s influence on the individual. Much less attention is paid to media’s ecological effects, that is, media’s influence on places – counties, cities, towns, and so on. In this chapter, I will first briefly trace the history of communication studies to explain the field’s orientation toward individual-level analyses. Then, I will discuss the methodological importance of considering spatial dependence and heterogeneity in aggregate-level analyses. Finally, I will demonstrate how to incorporate spatial methods in communication research through a study of the relationship between local news availability and non-institutional political engagement in the United States. |
| Date: | 2024–08–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:karxm |
| By: | Xiaojuan Yu (Zhongnan University of Economics and Law and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Vincent A.C. van den Berg (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how the interaction between human-driven vehicles (HVs) cruising for parking and autonomous vehicles (AVs) traveling back and forth affects travel behavior and congestion. To capture the spatial distribution of parking, we develop a continuous spatial optimization model, with a discrete choice logit model governing the choice between the two modes. Various congestion externalities are considered in the proposed model. Using optimal control method, we derive the social optimum under user-equilibrium constraints and compare it to the unpriced user equilibrium. Without pricing, the introduction of AVs may increase or lower congestion depending on whether cruising or traveling back and forth dominates. Thus, AVs may be underused or overused, as the marginal external benefit of switching to AVs may be positive or negative. In our numerical model, with optimal pricing, the introduction of AVs always reduces travel costs. In terms of parking, the introduction of AVs is efficient in reducing parking demand and results in a smaller and less compact city. The efficiency of pricing is significantly impacted by the congestion interactions. When only one congestion type exists, it increases with the degree of congestion. However, when both congestion types exist, the efficiency of pricing is ambiguous. Specifically, when both HVs’ cruising congestion and AVs’ back-and-forth congestion are heavy, the efficiency of pricing is lower. Our proposed model reveals that the effects of AVs on travel and urban equilibrium may be more difficult to assess and less beneficial than often thought. Our numerical study provides policy insights into actions that regulators could consider for the operation of AVs. |
| Keywords: | Autonomous vehicles, Cruising, Parking pricing, Congestion |
| JEL: | R41 R42 R48 |
| Date: | 2024–05–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20240032 |
| By: | Schiff, Maurice |
| Abstract: | Ability drain's (𝐴𝐷) impact on host countries is significant: 30 percent of US Nobel laureates since 1906 are immigrants, and they or their children founded 40 percent of Fortune 500 companies. The article first provides a detailed description of the multiple home country benefits generated by the brain and ability drains. Second, as brain drain (𝐵𝐷) and gain (𝐵𝐺) have been studied extensively while 𝐴𝐷 has not, I examine migration's impact on ability (𝑎) as well as on education (ℎ) and productive human capital 𝑠 = 𝑠(𝑎, ℎ), both for home country residents and skilled migrants, under the 'vetting' immigration system (e.g., US H-1B program), which accounts for 𝑠. Findings are: i) Education increases with ability; ii) Migration reduces (raises) home country residents' (migrants') average ability, with an ambiguous (positive) impact on the average level of ℎ and 𝑠; thus, migrants' average ability and education is higher than that of non-migrants; iii) These effects increase with inequality in ability's distribution; iv) The model and empirical studies suggest that 𝐴𝐷 ≥ 𝐵𝐷 for educated US immigrants from 42 developing countries, with an average real income about twice their home country income; v) A net drain or decline in average 𝑠 holds for any net 𝐵𝐷 (𝑁𝐵𝐷 = 𝐵𝐷 − 𝐵𝐺), and for an 𝐴𝐷 that is a fraction of our estimate. Thus, in order to correctly assess the impact of skilled migration, home and host countries' policymakers need to incorporate its effect on average ability in the analysis. |
| Keywords: | Migration, points system, vetting system, ability drain, brain drain, brain gain |
| JEL: | F22 J24 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1478 |
| By: | Edoardo di Porto (University of Naples Federico II Complesso Universitario di Monte Sant’Angelo, Via Cintia, 21, 80126 Napoli, Italia); Angela Parenti (University of Pisa, Via Ridolfi 10, 56124 Pisa, Italy); Sonia Paty (Université Lumière Lyon 2, CNRS, Université Jean- Monnet Saint-Etienne, emlyon business school, GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne UMR 5824, 35 rue Raulin, 69007 Lyon, FRANCE) |
| Abstract: | We study the causal impact of integration on electoral participation, based on the French experience of intermunicipal cooperation (2001-2018) in which integrated municipalities transfer certain responsibilities and fiscal revenues from the lower municipal level to the higher intermunicipal level. Using a discontinuity design analysis with an exogenous population-based rule, we find that voter turnout for municipal elections decreases significantly within newly highly integrated communities. A supplementary event study analysis shows that these municipalities face a significant decrease in fiscal revenues for about two years after the decision to cooperate. These results suggest that when less is at stake, in terms of responsibilities and fiscal revenues in highly integrated municipalities, citizens feel less involved and electoral participation decreases. Furthermore, exploiting a 2014 electoral reform, this loss in participation is found to be long-lasting. |
| Keywords: | Decentralization, integration, electoral participation, fiscal revenues, cooperation, quasi-natural experiment |
| JEL: | H2 H3 H7 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:2409 |
| By: | Antman, Francisca M. (University of Colorado, Boulder); Duncan, Brian (University of Colorado Denver) |
| Abstract: | Political discourse has often stoked racial and ethnic divisions, raising the possibility that individuals' self-reported racial and ethnic identities may change in response to an increasingly hostile environment. We shed light on this question by measuring the impacts of local support for California's Proposition 187, one of the first and most well-known ballot measures widely seen to be anti-immigrant and anti-Latino, on individuals' willingness to identify ethnically as Hispanic and specifically, Mexican. Linking data on self-reported ethnicity, ancestry, and parental place of birth with county-level voter support for Proposition 187, we show that individuals with stronger ties to Mexican ancestry or parentage are less likely to identify ethnically as Mexican in response to support for Proposition 187, just as individuals with weaker ties to Mexican ancestry are more likely to identify as Mexican. This is consistent with our predictions that anti-minority sentiment may drive individuals with more observable ties to a minority group to reduce their willingness to identify due to heightened fear of discrimination and hostility. At the same time, anti-minority sentiment may raise the salience of ethnicity and race and thus increase the willingness to identify as a minority for those with weaker observable ties, who are relatively more protected from adverse impacts. To our knowledge, this is the first paper to document a connection between political discourse and endogenous ethnic identity. |
| Keywords: | immigrants, Hispanic/Latino, ethnic identity, elections |
| JEL: | J15 D72 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17195 |
| By: | Berliant, Marcus; Tabuchi, Takatoshi |
| Abstract: | To investigate questions related to migration and trade, a model of regional or international development is created by altering Melitz and Ottaviano (2008) to include a labor market. The model is then applied to analyze poverty traps and the home market effect. We find that in the spatial economics context of migration but no trade, poverty can persist unless population in one region of many is pushed past a threshold. Then growth commences. In the context of trade but no migration, the home market effect holds for a range of parameters, similar to previous literature. However, unlike previous literature, we find that if populations in the countries are large, the home market effect can be reversed. |
| Keywords: | Monopolistic competition; Poverty trap; Home market effect; Labor market clearing |
| JEL: | F12 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–07–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121619 |
| By: | Ogawa, Akinobu; Kondoh, Haruo |
| Abstract: | Many studies show that fiscal redistribution among regions carried out by a national government undermines the cost efficiency of local governments. In Japan, a unique fiscal system, the Hometown Tax Donation (HTD) system, was launched in 2008. Citizens may donate some of their inhabitant taxes to a different local government than their own. We examine the effects of the HTD using panel data of Japanese municipalities and stochastic frontier analysis. We find that revenue received by other regions leads to a misestimation of the cost of public services, even if this redistribution is based on residents’ intentions. |
| Keywords: | Cost efficiency of local governments; Intergovernmental fiscal transfer; Donation of inhabitant tax; Hometown tax donation system (HTD) |
| JEL: | H27 H71 |
| Date: | 2024–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121688 |
| By: | Kristof De Witte; Panagiotis Takis ILIOPOULOS |
| Abstract: | The fiscal behavior of local governments has gained significant attention from academia and policymakers due to decentralization reforms transferring power from central to lower levels of government. As local governments assume more responsibilities for public goods and services, understanding their expenditure composition and trade-offs becomes crucial. While existing literature has examined the factors influencing the size of local government budgets, less attention has been given to the decision-making mechanisms and trade-offs within budget allocations. This study investigates the expenditure composition of 300 Flemish municipalities, using an unsupervised clustering algorithm and a binary logistic regression framework. Our results are indicative of how local governments tend to prioritize specific policy areas in the design of their budgets, when they operate under strict institutional and fiscal constraints such as a balanced budget rule. We observe that municipalities prioritizing social care for the elderly allocate fewer resources to education, mobility, and environmental initiatives. Municipalities emphasizing administration services, mobility, safety, and social services sacrifice both care services for the elderly and have reduced budgets for primary education. The budget composition patterns are influenced by the age structure and ethnic diversity of local communities and the politico-ideological position of electorates. |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:leerwp:746856 |
| By: | Ande Shen; Jiwei Zhou |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the causal impact of education opportunities on rural areas by exploiting the higher education expansion (HEE) in China in 1999. By utilizing the detailed census data, the cohort-based difference-in-differences design indicates that the HEE increased college attendance and encouraged more people to attend senior high schools and that the effect is more significant in rural areas. Then we apply a similar approach to a novel panel data set of rural villages and households to examine the effect of education opportunities on rural areas. We find contrasting impacts on income and life quality between villages and households. Villages in provinces with higher HEE magnitudes underwent a drop in the average income and worse living facilities. On the contrary, households sending out migrants after the HEE experienced an increase in their per capita income. The phenomenon where villages experienced a ``brain drain'' and households with migrants gained after the HEE is explained by the fact that education could serve as a way to overcome the barrier of rural-urban migration. Our findings highlight the opposed impacts of education opportunities on rural development and household welfare in rural areas. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.12915 |
| By: | D’Alessandro, Francesco (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Santarelli, Enrico (University of Bologna); Vivarelli, Marco (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we integrate the insights of the Knowledge Spillover Theory of Entrepreneurship and Innovation (KSTE+I) with Schumpeter's idea that innovative entrepreneurs creatively apply available local knowledge, possibly mediated by Marshallian, Jacobian and Porter spillovers. In more detail, in this study we assess the degree of pervasiveness and the level of opportunities brought about by AI technologies by testing the possible correlation between the regional AI knowledge stock and the number of new innovative ventures (that is startups patenting in any technological field in the year of their foundation). Empirically, by focusing on 287 Nuts-2 European regions, we test whether the local AI stock of knowledge exerts an enabling role in fostering innovative entry within AI-related local industries (AI technologies as focused enablers) and within non AI-related local industries, as well (AI technologies as generalised enablers). Results from Negative Binomial fixed-effect and Poisson fixed-effect regressions (controlled for a variety of concurrent drivers of entrepreneurship) reveal that the local AI knowledge stock does promote the spread of innovative startups, so supporting both the KSTE+I approach and the enabling role of AI technologies; however, this relationship is confirmed only with regard to the sole high-tech/AI-related industries. |
| Keywords: | KSTE+I, Artificial Intelligence, innovative entry, enabling technologies |
| JEL: | O33 L26 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17206 |
| By: | Kuan-Ming Chen; Janet Currie; Hui Ding; Wei-Lun Lo |
| Abstract: | This study uses administrative health insurance records in Taiwan to examine changes in child mental health treatment around four school milestones including: Primary and middle school entry, high stakes testing for high school, and high stakes testing for college entry. Leveraging age cutoffs for school entry in Taiwan, we compare August-born children to children born in September of the same year. The former hit all the milestones one year earlier than the latter, enabling us to identify each milestone’s effect. We find that entry into both primary school and middle schools is associated with increases in mental health prescribing, not only for ADHD but also for depression. Middle school entry is also associated with increases in the prescribing of anti-anxiety and antipsychotic medications. Perhaps surprisingly, there is no run-up in the use of psychiatric medications prior to high-stakes tests. But the use of psychiatric medications falls sharply following the tests. These effects are stronger in counties where both parents and children have higher educational aspirations. Hence, the use of psychiatric drugs increases at junctures when educational stresses increase and falls when these stresses are relieved. |
| JEL: | I1 I12 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32842 |
| By: | Thiemo Fetzer; Benjamin Guin; Felipe Netto; Farzad Saidi |
| Abstract: | This paper uncovers if and how insurance companies react to shocks to collateral in their portfolio of securitized assets. We address this question in the context of commercial real estate cash flow shocks, which are informationally opaque to holders of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). Using detailed micro data, we show that cash flow shocks during the COVID-19 pandemic predict CRE mortgage delinquency, especially those stemming from lease expiration of offices, reflecting lower demand for these properties. Insurers react to such cash flow shocks by selling more exposed CMBS - mirrored by a surge in small banks holding CMBS - and the composition of their CMBS portfolio affects their trading behavior in other assets. Our results indicate that institutional investors actively monitor underlying asset risk, and even gain an informational advantage over some banks. |
| Keywords: | Insurance Sector, Risk Management, Mortgage Default, Commercial Real Estate, CMBS, Workfrom-home |
| JEL: | G20 G21 G22 G23 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_590 |
| By: | Mattia Filomena (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Marche Polytechnic University); Matteo Picchio (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Marche Polytechnic University); Alessia Lo Turco (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (UNIVPM)) |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of globalization on workplace accidents in the Italian manufacturing sector from 2008 to 2019. We focus on both the local intensity of import exposure to China and the share of foreign-born residents. To handle potential endogeneity concerns, we instrument the import exposure to China with that of other high-income countries and local immigration exposure with historical co-national local settlements. Our findings highlight a worsening of workplace safety following an increase in import competition, especially for male workers. An inspection of the channels suggests that the effect works through an increasing workload. |
| Keywords: | Workplace injuries, globalization, import competition, immigration, shift-share instruments. |
| JEL: | F16 I1 J28 J61 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wpaper:488 |
| By: | Letizia Gambi; Kristof De Witte |
| Abstract: | This paper takes stock of the long-term evolution of the trend in student achievement in the final year of primary education in Flanders, Belgium. Using panel data with standardised test scores, we assess the average change in students’ test scores between-cohorts, by comparing most recent cohorts with either the pre-pandemic levels (the year 2019), or the year 2021. We show that while the 2023 cohort underperform compared to pre-pandemic levels (-0.27 SD in ‘reading comprehension’, -0.18 SD in ‘geometry’, -0.12 SD in ‘technology’, and -0.17 SD in ‘social science – time’), a catch-up in learning between-cohorts takes place, with the 2023 cohort catching up with the 2021 cohort, regardless of the base year. Furthermore, we find that high-performing students (p75-p95), who had previously experienced an especially pronounced negative trend in test scores in 2022, now perform at levels observed in previous years. Furthermore, we observe an improvement in test scores across all schools, irrespective of their SES composition, in all subjects and content subdomains, except for listening. The trend analysis of specific content subdomains within multiple subjects, which is lacking in the literature, provide a nuanced understanding of the dynamics at play, offering valuable insights for education systems beyond that of Flanders. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:leerwp:746866 |
| By: | Francesco Zanetti; Federico S. Mandelman; Yang Yu; Andrei Zlate |
| Abstract: | We document a steady decline in low-skilled immigration that began with the onset of the Great Recession in 2007, which was associated with labor shortages in low-skilled service occupations and a decline in the skill premium. Falling returns to high-skilled jobs coincided with a decline in the educational attainment of native-born workers. We develop and estimate a stochastic growth model with endogenous immigration and training to account for these facts and study macroeconomic performance and welfare. Lower immigration leads to higher wages for low-skilled workers and higher consumer prices. Importantly, the decline in the skill premium discourages the training of native workers, persistently reducing aggregate productivity and welfare. Stimulus policies during the COVID-19 pandemic, amid a widespread shortage of low-skilled immigrant labor, exacerbated the rise in consumer prices and reduced welfare. We show that the 2021-2023 immigration surge helped to partially alleviate existing labor shortages and restore welfare. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnn:wpaper:24-013e |
| By: | Fix, Blair |
| Abstract: | When it comes to rising house prices, nearly everyone has a theory about the cause. There’s ‘too much foreign money’. There are ‘too many immigrants’. There’s ‘too little construction’. And so on. What unites these explanations is that they appeal, in some way, to the idea that rising prices are caused by a mismatch between supply and demand. And surely that’s true, right? Yes, it is true … in the same way that death is caused by dying. But of course, that’s circular logic. And so it goes with ‘supply and demand’. Since prices are always caused by the interplay between what we want and what we can get, evoking ‘supply and demand’ leads us pretty much nowhere. Worse, it often puts the focus on short-term patterns, when the real scientific payoff lies in studying price trends over the long term. Speaking of the long term, many people assume that rising house prices are a recent problem. But in the United States, the pattern dates to the early 1970s. For almost a century before that, US house prices had been dropping against income. And so Americans treated their house like a ‘commodity’ — a thing they bought to live in. But from 1972 onward, house prices began to slowly appreciate against income. And so Americans started to treat their house like an ‘asset’. It’s this transformation — from commodity-like depreciation to asset-like appreciation — that is the real story of house prices. And the truth is that this story can’t be understood using popular scapegoats. To see why US house prices headed south and then north, we need to forget about supply and demand and instead, peer into the belly of industrialism. We need to ground house prices in the use of energy. Now, if going from prices to energy sounds like a non sequitur, I’ll show you why it makes sense. And I’ll show you how, when we bring debt into the energy fold, we can explain almost all of the historical variation in US house prices. The lesson here is simple yet disturbing. When it comes to rising house prices, the trend has less to do with a ‘supply crisis’, and more to do with basic physical limits to industrial supply chains. |
| Keywords: | assets, commodities, debt, distribution, housing, energy, price, United States |
| JEL: | P1 O18 R3 E3 E31 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:301792 |
| By: | Samuel Luethi |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the labour market effects of firm-based (or dual) vocational education and training (VET), i.e. when training takes place in a firm rather than in a school. Using Swiss administrative data, I compare the school-to-work transition between graduates of dual and school-based VET, both of whom have the same curriculum and diploma. To identify the causal effect, I rely on an instrumental variable strategy, using the distance to the nearest full-time VET school as instrument. The empirical analysis shows that dual VET is more effective in securing first employment, especially in occupations with loose labour market conditions as well as for men. However, dual VET graduates are less likely to progress to higher education, suggesting that both forms of VET have a comparative advantage. As for causal channels, heterogeneous results indicate that dual VET is particularly effective in developing noncognitive skills. |
| Keywords: | apprenticeship, school-based VET, school-to-work transition |
| JEL: | J24 I21 J41 C26 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iso:educat:0227 |
| By: | Hornok, Cecília; Raeskyesa, Dewa Gede Sidan |
| Abstract: | Economic zones can be powerful drivers of economic growth in developing countries. However, less is known about their distributional impact on the local society. This paper provides empirical evidence from Indonesian provinces on the relationship between economic zones and within-province income inequality. We apply fixed-effects panel estimation to province-level data for the whole of Indonesia, which we then complement with separate studies on the opening of three economic zones in three provinces using the synthetic control method. The results suggest that the above relationship is positive overall. The estimated rise in income inequality after a zone opens is, however, relatively small on average and may be short-lived. Moreover, the average estimate masks large regional differences, which suggests that the inequality implications of economic zone policies depend on local conditions. One possible explanation for the rise in inequality is that the unskilled population benefits disproportionately less from the policy. |
| Keywords: | Economic zones, Income distribution, Indonesia, Place-based policy, Synthetic control method |
| JEL: | D31 F63 O15 O25 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:301881 |
| By: | Moritz Mendel |
| Abstract: | Individuals from low-income backgrounds perform worse than their higher income peers in school. If individuals from low-income backgrounds enter university, they are more likely to do so after dropping out of high school or finishing vocational training. I refer to trajectories that involve vocational training or high school dropout before entering university as alternative paths to university. This paper asks whether alternative paths to university promote social mobility. To reach this goal, I specify a dynamic model of education that follows individuals from low-income backgrounds in the Netherlands during adolescence and early adulthood. The model shows that despite initial achievement gaps, many individuals from low-income backgrounds have high returns from finishing a bachelor’s degree later. They face substantial dropout risk, however, when entering higher education. Alternative paths to university substantially increase university graduation rates and wages among individuals from low-income backgrounds. The main explanation for this result is that many individuals from low-income backgrounds face substantial uncertainty when deciding about their future education at sixteen. Imposing flexibility between different educational careers consequently improves outcomes significantly. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, Education, Vocational Training |
| JEL: | I2 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_592 |
| By: | Borges, Jose Victor (Departamento de Economia, Universidade de São Paulo); Zamboni, Gabriel (Departamento de Economia, Universidade de São Paulo); Haddad, Eduardo A. (Departamento de Economia, Universidade de São Paulo) |
| Abstract: | There are considerable differences in Portugal’s economy between regions and economic sectors. This work aims to generate an analysis of the country’s economy considering five main themes: current economic situation, future competitiveness, social inequality, regional inequality, and decarbonization of the economy. Based on the Portuguese interregional input-output matrix of 2017 and using established methods in input-output analysis, we developed a typological view based on indicators calculated at the sectoral and regional levels of the country – 7 regions and 65 sectors. The results show the relative strengths and weaknesses for each sector and region. With the results, we transformed each index into a score with a value between 0 and 1. Finally, we developed a tool that allows choosing the level of importance for each of the five dimensions of analysis and for each indicator, in order to generate a weighted average score for each sector and region by dimension and also a global weighted average score across all dimensions. This type of analysis enables the formulation of strategies for creating public policies or investment plans aimed at strengthening social, regional, and environmental development according to the social planner’s preferences. |
| Keywords: | Multidimensional indicators; Socioeconomic typologies; Spatial analysis; Policy targeting |
| JEL: | R10 |
| Date: | 2024–08–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nereus:2024_010 |
| By: | John Mondragon |
| Abstract: | I use an episode of relatively tight credit supply in the jumbo mortgage market to quantify the importance of price and non-price credit supply mechanisms in explaining changes in borrowing. Following market disruptions in March 2020, borrowers with jumbo loans saw significantly tighter credit supply conditions relative to borrowers with conforming loans. As a result, jumbo borrowers were 50 percent less likely to refinance and when they refinanced they borrowed 4-6 percent less than counterfactual borrowers facing looser credit conditions. The reduction in borrowing may have been caused by both an increase in the price and a change in a non-price mechanism, a decline in the availability of cash-out refinances. Decomposing the total effect into a price and cash-out channel, I find that that the cash-out channel accounts for two to three times as much of the decline as the price effect, and together both explain 70-80 percent of the total decline. This suggests that non-price mechanisms can be least as important as prices in clearing credit markets, a fact which is not adequately explained by current models of credit markets. |
| Keywords: | credit supply; prices; mortgage markets |
| Date: | 2024–08–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:98687 |
| By: | Nocito, Samuel (Sapienza University of Rome); Venturini, Alessandra (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the effect of a financial education program on migrants, emphasizing the importance of inter-institutional cooperation. The Italian case study, the "Welcome-ED" project—a partnership between the Municipality of Turin and the Turin Museum of Savings (MoS)—aimed to provide tailored financial education to diverse migrant groups, relying on cooperation with various local migration center entities: cooperatives, non-profit associations, and provincial centers for adult education. Our evaluation reveals a significant positive increase in migrants' financial literacy after participating in the project. Furthermore, when we redefine the MoS evaluation criteria employing a model from Item Response Theory (IRT), we document that the post-course migrants' greatest improvement was in the topic identified as most difficult by the IRT model. The study documents variations in the project's results, with migrants from cooperatives and non-profit associations benefiting more than those from provincial centers for adult education, primarily due to the different compositions of the migrant groups served. Our findings also highlight the significance of financial education for African migrants, a substantial part of migrants in Europe. The program evaluation underscores the essential role of cooperation between public and private institutions, cooperatives, and non-profit associations in expanding the reach and effectiveness of financial education projects for migrants. We finally emphasize the strengths and limitations of the program, providing recommendations for future enhancement of similar initiatives. |
| Keywords: | migrants, institutions, cooperatives, non-profit, financial literacy |
| JEL: | D14 L30 J15 P13 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17214 |
| By: | Shizhen Wang; Stanimira Milcheva |
| Abstract: | We propose an impossible trinity of human space usage between home, workplace, and amenity in this paper to explain mobility pattern changes and shifts in demand for space during COVID-19. We developed detailed time usage and location visit profiles for 60, 131 people in England and Wales by analyzing about 120 million cell phone location and timestamp records from March 2020 and 2021. We found that both at-home time and amenity visits increased during COVID-19, while workplace visits decreased. Individual visits to different locations are determined by three key factors: individual preference measured by pre-pandemic location visit frequency, time constraints influenced by work-from-home, and space accessibility. We also find that WFH improves equality of individual amenity usage between people of different incomes. Low-income and middle-income people saw an 8% and 4% increase in additional amenity visits, respectively, compared to high-income people during the pandemic. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.02942 |
| By: | Carycruz Bueno (Department of Economics, Wesleyan University); Tim R. Sass (Department of Economics, Georgia State University) |
| Abstract: | Traditionally, teacher salaries have been determined solely by experience and educational attainment. This has led to chronic shortages of teachers in particular subject areas, such as math, science, and special education. There is a small literature which finds that bonuses and loan forgiveness can ameliorate subject- specific teacher shortages by substantially increasing retention of teachers in such “high-need” subjects. In contrast to prior work, we find that Georgia’s bonus system for early-career math and science teachers has not increased teacher retention in these subject areas. The lack of efficacy can be traced to four key elements of the design and implementation of Georgia’s bonus system: uncertainty in program funding, ex-post payments that are not conditional on future employment, an eligibility cap based on years of experience, and poor communication about the program to teachers. Our findings demonstrate the need to carefully design and implement bonus systems to achieve the potential benefits of differential pay structures. |
| Keywords: | STEM teacher shortages, teacher bonus pay, teacher recruitment and retention |
| JEL: | I21 I28 J20 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wes:weswpa:2024-010 |
| By: | Heidland, Tobias; Wichardt, Philipp C |
| Abstract: | This paper connects insights from the literature on cosmopolitan worldviews and the effects of perspective-taking in political science, (intergroup) anxiety in social psychology, and identity economics in a vignette-style experiment. In particular, we asked German respondents about their attitudes towards a Syrian refugee, randomizing components of his description (N = 662). The main treatment describes the refugee as being aware of and empathetic towards potential worries in the German population about cultural change, costs, and violence associated with refugee inflows. This perspective-taking by the refugee increases the reported ability to empathize with the refugee and, especially for risk-averse people, reported sympathy and trust. We argue that acknowledging the potential concerns of the host population relieves the tension between an anxious and a cosmopolitan/open part of people’s identities. Moreover, relieved tension renders people less defensive; i.e. when one aspect of identity is already acknowledged (expressing anxieties), it has less influence on actual behavior (expressing sympathy). In addition, previous contact with foreigners and a higher willingness to take risks are important factors in determining an individual’s willingness to interact with refugees. |
| Keywords: | intergroup contact, intergroup anxiety, perspective-taking, identity, migration, inte-gration, refugees |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:301392 |
| By: | Shan Huang; Yuan Yuan; Yi Ji |
| Abstract: | The diffusion of novel information through social networks is essential for dismantling echo chambers and promoting innovation. Our study examines how two major types of viral channels, specifically Direct Messaging (DM) and Broadcasting (BC), impact the well-known "strength of weak ties" in disseminating novel information across social networks. We conducted a large-scale empirical analysis, examining the sharing behavior of 500, 000 users over a two-month period on a major social media platform. Our results suggest a greater capacity for DM to transmit novel information compared to BC, although DM typically involves stronger ties. Furthermore, the "strength of weak ties" is only evident in BC, not in DM where weaker ties do not transmit significantly more novel information. Our mechanism analysis indicates that the content selection by both senders and recipients, contingent on tie strength, contributes to the observed differences between these two channels. These findings expand both our understanding of contemporary weak tie theory and our knowledge of how to disseminate novel information in social networks. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.03579 |
| By: | Kitano, Shinichi |
| Abstract: | In rural development research, social capital (SC) complements the causal gap between the endowment of resources and other capital in a community and the performance of collective actions, such as common-pool resource management. However, the concept of SC is ambiguous and its measurement is controversial. This study focuses on rural SC and attempts to measure it inductively using data (994 communities) related to various collective actions (22 types), rather than deductively piling up the detailed components of SC, as several studies have done. Hierarchical latent variable models are used to understand the hierarchical structure of SC. We used spatial regression models to examine the policy’s causal impacts on SC accumulation while considering spatial heterogeneity. The results show that SC has spatial heterogeneity and a hierarchical structure, depending on the internal (bonding-type) and external (bridging-type) components, as well as on the difference between general activities and collective agricultural actions. The SC accumulation is strongly correlated with traditional and agriculture-related activities. Furthermore, policies increase comprehensive SC by approximately 20% but are more effective for internal SC than for external SC. These results suggest the need for policy options such as agglomeration bonuses when expanding the range of collective actions. Other findings indicate that the reinforcement of agricultural corporations and educational facilities are also effective in accumulating SC. |
| Keywords: | social capital, inductive measurement, heterogeneity, policy impact, hierarchical structure, spatial regression |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:301789 |
| By: | Gardner, Charles (Mercury Publication) |
| Abstract: | Minimum lot sizes are perhaps the most common form of land use regulation in the United States and one of the most important for determining the form and density of urban areas. American jurisprudence regarding lot minimums has nonetheless been plagued b |
| Date: | 2023–10–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajw:wpaper:12482 |
| By: | Arthur Lewbel (Boston College); Xi Qu (Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University); Xun Tang (Department of Economics, Rice University) |
| Abstract: | We propose an adjusted 2SLS estimator for social network models when the network links reported in samples are subject to two-sided misclassification errors (due, e.g., to recall errors by survey respondents, or lapses in data input). Misclassified links make all covariates endogenous, and add a new source of correlation between the structural errors and peer outcomes (in addition to simultaneity), thus invalidating conventional estimators used in the literature. We resolve these issues by adjusting endogenous peer outcomes with estimates of the misclassification rates and constructing new instruments that exploit properties of the noisy network measures. Simulation results confirm our adjusted 2SLS estimator corrects the bias from a naive, unadjusted 2SLS estimator which ignores misclassification and uses conventional instruments. We apply our method to study peer effects in household decisions to participate in a microfinance program in Indian villages. |
| Keywords: | Social Network, Link Misclassification |
| JEL: | D11 D13 |
| Date: | 2024–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:1079 |
| By: | Salla Kalin; Antoine B. Levy; Mathilde Muñoz |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether and why pensioners move across borders in response to tax rate differentials. In 2013, retirees relocating to Portugal became eligible to a full tax exemption of foreign-source pensions. Contrary to the broadly held belief that seniors "age in place", we find substantial international mobility responses to the reform, concentrated among wealthy and educated pensioners in higher-tax origin countries. The implied migration elasticity of the stock of foreign pensioners to the net-of-tax rate is large (between 1.5 and 2) and increases at longer horizons. Tax-induced retirement migration clusters in space, and exhibits amplification and hysteresis patterns consistent with agglomeration through endogenous amenities. We show such forces theoretically and empirically have significant implications for optimal tax rates, and for the limited efficacy of unilateral policy responses to tax competition, like the source-based taxation of pensions. |
| JEL: | H21 H31 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32890 |
| By: | Benček, David; Schneiderheinze, Claas |
| Abstract: | Comparing emigration rates of countries at different stages of economic development, an inverse u-shape emerges. Since the “migration hump” peaks at an average income of 6000 to 10 000 USD, economic progress in developing countries is often assumed to increase migration consistently. However, it is poorly understood to what extend country-level characteristics, individual incomes and other dimensions of development evoke this pattern, which limits its value for causal inference and concrete policy advice. In this paper we focus on the role of economic growth and investigate whether in developing countries emigration indeed increases with economic progress at shorter more policy-relevant time periods of up to 10 years. Using 35 years of data on migration flows to OECD destinations, we successfully reproduce the hump-shape in the cross-section. However, our more rigorous fixed effects panel estimations that exploit the variation over time robustly feature contrasting results: emigration rates fall as incomes increase. This finding holds independent of the level of income a country starts out at. In contrast to prevailing development emigration narratives, our results imply that rising individual incomes discourage emigration and hence conducive economic policies can reduce emigration. Our findings do not rule out that other slow-moving development dimensions such as educational advancement, demographic change, and structural economic transformation could still increase migration in the long term. |
| Keywords: | International migration, Economic development, Development assistance |
| JEL: | F22 F63 O15 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:301403 |
| By: | Gelvez, Juan David (University of Maryland) |
| Abstract: | Why do governments prevent crime in some places and not others? Who are the primary beneficiaries of the security provision? This paper examines how the incumbent uses crime prevention projects as a pork-barrel good, in order to finance swing-voter municipalities. Using a mixed-method approach, which includes the analysis of a granular dataset of crime prevention funds and interviews with policymakers and bureaucrats, I study how electoral incentives can explain differences in security provision in Colombia. To do so, I conduct several fixed effect models and a regression discontinuity design that measures the effects of electoral results on money distribution, taking advantage of party alignment and margin of victory. I also interviewed policymakers and bureaucrats to shed light on the mechanisms behind these results. My study suggests that electoral competition, party alignment between national and local politicians, and the minister’s interest play pivotal roles in shaping security provisions across the country |
| Date: | 2024–02–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:znyq5 |
| By: | McGinnity, Frances; Russell, Helen; Alamir, Anousheh |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp779 |
| By: | Joaquín Matías Liwski (Department of Economics, Universidad de San Andrés) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the diverse impacts of corporate acquisitions on employees with data from Brazil’s formal employment sector (RAIS survey, 2007-2015) and the Thomson Reuters SDC Platinum Database. Employing a matched event studies design, I navigate labor market complexities, revealing heterogeneous effects at individual and firm levels. Notably, the analysis uncovers a significant short-term increase in log-wages for individuals in acquired firms, particularly in the immediate 0 to 1 years following events; however, separation outcomes predominantly occur in the same year as the acquisition. Job changes play a pivotal role, with incumbents and voluntary leavers experiencing positive outcomes, while involuntary terminations lead to declines, also in the long-run. The study explores age-related, educational, skill-based, and occupational differences, showing diverse impacts across these dimensions. Additionally, firm size emerges as a critical factor, influencing log-wages and separation outcomes. Ultimately, the change in firm productivity or firm-specific wage premiums drives observed effects, underlining one mechanism of M&A impacts on the workforce. |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sad:ypaper:14 |
| By: | Eunsik Chang; Sandra Orozco-Aleman; María Padilla-Romo |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of mothers' long-term pre-conception exposure to local violence on birth outcomes. Using administrative data from Mexico and two different empirical strategies, our results indicate that mothers' long-term exposure to local violence prior to conception has detrimental effects on infant health at birth. The results suggest that loss of women's human capital and deterioration of mental health are potential underlying mechanisms behind the adverse effects, highlighting intergenerational consequences of exposure to local violence. Our findings shed light on the welfare implications of local violence that are not captured in in-utero exposure to violence. |
| JEL: | I12 J13 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32806 |
| By: | Lukas Rosenberger; W. Walker Hanlon; Carl Hallmann |
| Abstract: | How did Britain sustain faster rates of economic growth than comparable European countries, such as France, during the Industrial Revolution? We argue that Britain possessed an important but underappreciated innovation advantage: British inventors worked in technologies that were more central within the innovation network. We offer a new approach for measuring the innovation network using patent data from Britain and France in the late-18th and early-19th century. We show that the network influenced innovation outcomes and demonstrate that British inventors worked in more central technologies within the innovation network than French inventors. Drawing on recently developed theoretical tools, and using a novel estimation strategy, we quantify the implications for technology growth rates in Britain compared to France. Our results indicate that the shape of the innovation network, and the location of British inventors within it, explains an important share of the more rapid technological change and industrial growth in Britain during the Industrial Revolution. |
| JEL: | N13 O30 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32875 |
| By: | Howard Bodenhorn |
| Abstract: | Studies of modern misdemeanor adjudication find that courts set bail higher than is required to reasonably assure that nonviolent defendants who pose no immediate threat to the community will appear for trial. Some defendants languish in jail for extended periods during which time they lose income, employment, and the ability to provide an effective defense for themselves. This paper considers the downstream consequences of bail setting in an urban, southern police court in the 1910s. I find that defendants unwilling or unable to post cash bail were not more likely to be convicted or to be incarcerated than defendants who posted bail. Conditional on conviction, however, defendants who posted bail and returned for their hearings were about half as likely to serve time. Among those who served time, defendants who posted bail served just 6 percent as much time as defendants who did not post bail. The ability to post bail was correlated with unobserved income or wealth and I find evidence that defendants who did not post bail and served on the chain gang were employed in low-income jobs and likely faced a binding cash-in-advance constraint. |
| JEL: | K14 N0 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32887 |
| By: | Jirjahn, Uwe; Rienzo, Cinzia |
| Abstract: | Working from home reduces real-time visibility of employees within the physical space of the workplace. This makes it difficult to monitor employees' work behavior. Employers may instead monitor employees' outputs and provide incentives through performance pay. The crucial question is what type of performance pay employers provide to incentivize employees who work from home. Using British panel data, we find that working from home decreases the likelihood of solely receiving individual performance pay. It increases the likelihood of receiving collective performance pay - with or without individual performance pay. This pattern also holds in instrumental variable estimations accounting for endogeneity. Our findings fit theoretical considerations. Working from home means that employees have less opportunities to socialize at work entailing the tendency that they focus on personal achievement and neglect collaboration. Solely rewarding individual performance may reinforce this tendency. By contrast, employers reward collective performance as it counteracts the adverse effects of working from home by providing incentives for collaboration, helping on the job and information sharing. |
| Keywords: | Remote work, face-to-face interaction, helping on the job, information sharing, individual performance pay, profit sharing |
| JEL: | J22 J33 M50 M52 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1481 |
| By: | Petach, Luke |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect of religion on the economic progress of Black Americans after Reconstruction. Southern religious institutions-particularly the Southern Baptist church-played a key role in the development of the Lost Cause mythology that helped legitimate the white supremacist political order which dominated the American South well into the twentieth century. Using county-level data on religious adherence from the 1860 Census and data on county economic characteristics from the full count Census for the years 1850 to 1910, I show that from 1870 onward Black incomes, Black literacy rates, the share of Black individuals with "high-skill" occupations, and the share of Black individuals with manufacturing occupations were lower in counties with a greater pre-Civil War Baptist membership share. This finding is robust to county-fixed effects, year-fixed effects, state-specific linear time trends, and controlling for the county slave population share prior to 1860. No such negative effect on Black economic outcomes exists for the Catholic church, which never formally recognized the Confederacy. I highlight the relationship between Baptist church membership and Lost Cause ideology by demonstrating a positive effect of Baptist membership on Confederate monument construction, lynching, and showings of D.W. Griffith's Birth of a Nation. |
| Keywords: | Economics of Religion, Stratification Economics, Economic History, Post- Reconstruction, Lost Cause |
| JEL: | Z12 Z13 J15 N31 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1480 |
| By: | Da Hoang; Duong Trung Le; Ha Nguyen; Mr. Nikola Spatafora |
| Abstract: | We use a new dataset to estimate the impact of temperature on economic activity at a more geographically and temporally disaggregated level than the existing literature. Analyzing 30-kilometer grid cells at a monthly frequency, temperature has a negative, highly statistically significant, and quantitatively large effect on output: a 1 °C increase in monthly temperature is associated with a 0.77 percent reduction in nighttime lights, a proxy for local economic activity. The effects of even a temporary increase in temperature persist for almost one year after the shock. Increases in temperature have an especially large, negative impact on growth in poorer countries, indicating that they are more vulnerable to the impact of climate change. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; temperature; economic growth; nighttime lights |
| Date: | 2024–08–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/178 |
| By: | Joanne Tan |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the extent to which FDI has fragmented across countries, the ways it has done so, using a modified gravity approach. The paper finds that FDI fragmentation is, for now, not a widespread phenomenon. Instead, fragmentation is circumscribed in two ways. First, the paper finds that geo-economic fragmentation has occurred only for certain industries that likely have strategic value, including computer manufacturing, information and communications, transport, as well as professional, scientific and technical services. Secondly, fragmentation appears to be more pronounced for outward FDI from the US, notably in a shift of US FDI from China to advanced Europe and the rest of Asia. This shift appears to be driven by both the intensive and extensive margin. Fragmentation is also more pronounced for immediate rather than ultimate FDI, with evidence of ultimate parent companies aligning the geopolitical mix of their intermediaries more closely to that of their final FDI host destinations. Overall, the results suggest that fragmentation, where found, may be a response to targeted policies that have placed curbs on certain types of FDI on national security grounds, rather than an indiscriminate breakup of investment links between non-ally countries. |
| Keywords: | Fragmentation; Foreign Direct Investment |
| Date: | 2024–08–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/179 |
| By: | Singh, Tejendra Pratap |
| Abstract: | National estimates suggest that a large fraction of the United States population is unable to cover modest emergency expenses using liquid savings. At the same time, natural disasters are increasing in frequency, intensity, and duration with ever-expanding destruction potential. Using exposure to natural disasters, I examine if defendants are more likely to default on their legal financial obligations. Constructing a novel dataset of defendants with traffic citations in Oklahoma, I find that natural disaster exposure increases the likelihood that the defendant defaults on their legal debt. The effect appears immediately after the disaster exposure and persists for more than 100 days following the natural disaster. I do not uncover significant heterogeneity in legal debt default likelihood by defendant characteristics, potentially due to a lack of statistical power. These estimates suggest that interventions designed to provide reprieve for legal debt repayment may alleviate defendants getting entangled in the criminal justice system, a phenomenon that is extremely costly economically and socially. |
| Date: | 2024–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:mygch |