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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Buckle, Caitlin; Werner, Greta; Marshall, Nancy; Searle, Glen; Osbaldiston, Nick; Sarkar, Somwrita; Kundu, Durba; Gurran, Nicole |
| Abstract: | This study examines the place-based factors (i.e. that may be specific to a place) that influence people moving to and from Australian regional and rural areas and considers policy solutions for managing the impacts of this change. People moving to regional cities and towns favour being close to the coast and having easy access to larger cities while also having a warmer and wetter climate. New AHURI research examines the place-based factors (i.e. that may be specific to a place) that influence people moving to and from Australian regional areas and considers policy solutions for managing the impacts of these changes. Growth is positively related to connectivity, such as by being close to major railways, roads, airports and larger cities and employment centres. Internet connection speeds may also be a factor in migration to certain non-metropolitan areas, with technological advancements and favourable economic conditions enabling former city dwellers to telecommute from smaller regional locations. Access to hospitals and available health infrastructure can be significant considerations for people considering moving to a regional city. A key challenge in regional areas is that for vacancies in key employment sectors, local residents may not have requisite skills and attracting key workers from city locations can be challenging as housing challenges, reduced services (i.e. childcare) and other factors of liveability, and lack of job opportunities for a spouse, can be a disincentive. The liveability of each regional location is very important in creating a healthy and ‘deep’ population, i.e. one that stays and thrives in the region. Overcoming blockages to liveability, such as childcare; housing needs and supply; and transport infrastructure, as well as increasing local education and training opportunities for local workers, requires creative solutions. |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:pt9df |
| By: | Georgy Malginov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sergey Sternik (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2023, the Russian real estate market was in the stage of strong recovery growth after the 2022 turmoil. Its main driver was the mechanism of state support for mortgages, which boosted demand, ensuring the predominance of mortgage transactions in the total volume of transactions in Russian cities. Indicators of market consumer activity, especially in terms of mortgage lending, and price dynamic show that predictions of stagnation did not come true. Both primary and secondary segments were marked by an increase in growth rates during the year. Given the unambiguously positive economic situation (GDP growth of 3.6% and the real disposable household income growth of 5.4%), the volume of housing construction grew at a faster pace. At the same time, in contrast to 2022 and several previous years, the increase in the commissioning of apartment buildings was much higher than the results of individual housing construction. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, residential property prices, housing market, housing construction |
| JEL: | H82 K11 L32 L33 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2024-1334 |
| By: | Bøje-Kovács, Bence János (Aalborg University, Department of the Built Environment); Mulalic, Ismir (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Schultz-Nielsen, Marie Louise (ROCKWOOL Foundation Research) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate the impact of municipal mergers on residential mobility in a quasi-natural experiment setting by examining how local economic environment and neighborhood composition respond to the loss of local public administration. Utilizing comprehensive neighborhood-level data from Denmark spanning 1996 to 2015, we find that the loss of the town-hall triggers emigration, leading to a re-duction in locally supplied public goods. This affects the local housing market and job availability, leading to lower housing prices, higher wages, and longer com-mutes. Ultimately, the loss of the town-hall bears major negative consequences for inhabitants. |
| Keywords: | Municipal amalgamation; Regional migration; Neighborhood characteristics; Local labor markets |
| JEL: | H75 J23 R23 R53 |
| Date: | 2024–08–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2024_012 |
| By: | Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt; Nikodem Szumilo; Jagdish Tripathy; Gabriel Ahlfeldt |
| Abstract: | We quantify the housing-consumption channel in mortgage demand according to which households borrow more following house-price increases since housing and non-housing consumption are imperfect substitutes. To identify this channel, we take a structural approach to mortgage demand and supply, exploiting exogenous variation in house-price growth and a unique dataset with matched transaction-price and mortgage information. We estimate an elasticity of mortgage borrowing to house-prices of 0.82. Counterfactual analysis of the general-equilibrium of housing and mortgage markets shows that, sans housing-consumption channel, mortgage and house-price growth in the UK would have been 50% and 31% lower, respectively, since the 1990s. |
| Keywords: | house prices, mortgage demand, housing consumption, consumption channel, property taxes |
| JEL: | G11 G21 R21 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11255 |
| By: | Norbert Pfeifer (University of Graz, Austria); Miriam Steurer (University of Graz, Austria) |
| Abstract: | Penalized regression splines provide a flexible way to model spatial variation in real estate prices. However, when extrapolating to areas without data support, splines tend to "overshoot" and produce highly implausible estimates. Such data-poor locations are often of particular interest in urban economics (e.g., parks or beaches), as they can be used to infer the value of amenities. We introduce a spline construction method that addresses this overshooting problem by introducing helper point values in data gap areas prior to estimating the penalized regression spline surface. We estimate these helper point values using a decision-tree-based algorithm (XGBoost) that can effectively cluster and average local price levels. We find that the introduction of helper points eliminates the overshooting behavior in data gap areas, while preserving the flexibility of the spline surface elsewhere. We illustrate our approach using data for new apartment transactions in Vienna, Austria in 2020. |
| Keywords: | Real Estate Prices, Price Surface, Penalized Regression Splines, Spatial Machine Learning. |
| JEL: | C14 C43 C45 R31 C51 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grz:wpaper:2024-11 |
| By: | Tobias Herbst; Moritz Kuhn; Farzad Saidi |
| Abstract: | Houses are the most important asset on American households’ balance sheets, rendering the U.S. economy sensitive to house prices. There is a consensus that credit conditions affect house prices, but to what extent remains controversial, as an expansion in credit supply often coincides with changes in house price expectations. To address this longstanding question, we rely on novel microdata on the universe of mortgages guaranteed under the Veterans Administration (VA) loan program. We use the expansion of eligibility of veterans for the VA loan program following the Gulf War to estimate a long-lived effect of credit supply on house prices. We then exploit the segmentation of the conventional mortgage market from program eligibility to link this sustained house price growth to developments in the initially unaffected segment of the credit market. We uncover a net increase in credit for all other residential mortgage applicants that aligns closely with the evolution of house price growth, which supports the view that credit-induced house price shocks are amplified by beliefs. |
| Keywords: | credit supply, mortgages, beliefs, house prices, veterans |
| JEL: | E21 G20 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_586 |
| By: | Steve Gibbons; Stephan Heblich; Edward W. Pinchbeck |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the reversibility of the effects of transport infrastructure investments, based on a programme that removed much of the rail network in Britain during the mid-20th Century. We find that a 10% loss in rail access between 1950 and 1980 caused a persistent 3% decline in local population relative to unaffected areas, implying that the 1 in 5 places most exposed to the cuts saw 24 percentage points less population growth than the 1 in 5 places that were least exposed. The cuts reduced local jobs and shares of skilled workers and young people. |
| JEL: | H5 N74 R1 R40 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32800 |
| By: | Jonghyun Kim (Inha University); Donghyeon Yu (Inha University); Dongwoo Seo (Inha University); Hyoji Choi (Inha University); Bogang Jun (Inha University) |
| Abstract: | This study introduces a metric designed to measure urban structures through the economic complexity lens, building on the foundational theories of urban spatial structure, the Central Place Theory (CPT) (Christaller, 1933). Despite the significant contribution in the field of urban studies and geography, CPT has limited in suggesting an index that captures its key ideas. By analyzing various urban big data of Seoul, we demonstrate that PCI and ECI effectively identify the key ideas of CPT, capturing the spatial structure of a city that associated with the distribution of economic activities, infrastructure, and market orientation in line with the CPT. These metrics for urban centrality offer a modern approach to understanding the Central Place Theory and tool for urban planning and regional economic strategies without privacy issues. |
| Keywords: | Complexity, Central Place Theory, Market Boundary |
| JEL: | O18 R12 R30 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inh:wpaper:2024-5 |
| By: | Victor Lavy; Rigissa Megalokonomou |
| Abstract: | A recent critique of using teachers’ test score value-added (TVA) is that teacher quality is multifaceted; some teachers are effective in raising test scores, others are effective in improving long-term outcomes This paper exploits an institutional setting where high school teachers are randomly assigned to classes to compute multiple long-run TVA measures based on university schooling outcomes and high school behavior. We find substantial correlations between test scores and long-run TVA but zero correlations between these two TVA measures and behavior TVA. We find that short-term test-score TVA and long-run TVA are highly correlated and equally good predictors of long-term outcomes. |
| Keywords: | teacher quality, quasi-experimental random assignment, university quality, choice of university study, panel information on teachers, teacher value added |
| JEL: | J24 J21 J16 I24 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11216 |
| By: | Sebastien Box-Couillard; Peter Christensen |
| Abstract: | We report evidence from the largest study of racial price differentials in the U.S. housing market, using a panel of 40 million repeat-sales transactions. We find that price premiums facing Black and Hispanic homebuyers are ubiquitous and systematically higher in neighborhoods with a larger share of non-white residents. We find that non-white buyers purchase at a premium when buying from sellers from outside their group. Consistent with predictions from theoretical models, we find higher premiums in supply-constrained markets. Leveraging exogenous variation in racial segregation, we find that racial segregation leads to larger price premiums paid by Black homebuyers. |
| JEL: | H0 R0 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32815 |
| By: | Lingwei Cheng; Cameron Drayton; Alexandra Chouldechova; Rhema Vaithianathan |
| Abstract: | The demand for housing assistance across the United States far exceeds the supply, leaving housing providers the task of prioritizing clients for receipt of this limited resource. To be eligible for federal funding, local homelessness systems are required to implement assessment tools as part of their prioritization processes. The Vulnerability Index Service Prioritization Decision Assistance Tool (VI-SPDAT) is the most commonly used assessment tool nationwide. Recent studies have criticized the VI-SPDAT as exhibiting racial bias, which may lead to unwarranted racial disparities in housing provision. Such criticisms have led certain jurisdictions to develop alternative tools. Using data from one such prioritization tool, called the Allegheny Housing Assessment (AHA), we use descriptive and quantitative analysis to assess whether the replacement of the VI-SPDAT with the AHA impacts racial disparities in housing allocation. We find that the VI-SPDAT tended to assign higher risk scores to white clients and lower risk scores to Black clients, and that white clients were served at a higher rates pre-AHA deployment. While post-deployment service decisions became better aligned with the AHA score, and the distribution of AHA scores is similar across racial groups, we do not find evidence of a corresponding decrease in disparities in service rates. We attribute the persistent disparity to the use of Alt-AHA, a survey-based tool that is used in cases of low data quality, as well as group differences in eligibility-related factors, such as chronic homelessness and veteran status. We discuss the implications for housing service systems seeking to reduce racial disparities in their service delivery. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2407.21209 |
| By: | Barbour, Elisa; Alvarez-Coria, Rosanely; Anderson, Hayden; Hosseinzade, Rey; Turner, Katherine; Handy, Susan |
| Abstract: | Vehicle travel, measured as vehicle-miles traveled (VMT), dropped precipitously in California following “stay-in-place” orders issued by the state and counties as a response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Although VMT rebounded relatively quickly, the state has an opportunity to leverage other changes in household travel behavior so as to achieve its VMT reduction goals while enhancing transportation equity. This report reviews the available evidence on changes in household travel behavior resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic and provides an overview of potential state, regional, and local-level policies that could help to preserve changes that help to reduce VMT and reverse those that tend to increase VMT. The review focuses on alternatives to driving, specifically telecommuting, public transit, ride-hailing, e-shopping, and active travel and micro-mobility. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, telecommuting, public transit, ride-hailing, e-shopping, active travel, micro-mobility |
| Date: | 2023–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt5q0076tq |
| By: | Hyoji Choi (Inha University); Frank Neffke (Harvard University); Donghyeon Yu (Inha University); Bogang Jun (Inha University) |
| Abstract: | This study explores how the relatedness density of amenities influences consumer buying patterns, focusing on multi-purpose shopping preferences. Using Seoul¡¯s credit card data from 2018 to 2023, we find a clear preference for shopping at amenities close to consumers¡¯ residences, particularly for trips within a 2 km radius, where relatedness density significantly influences purchasing decisions. The COVID-19 pandemic initially reduced this effect at shorter distances but rebounded in 2023, suggesting a resilient return to pre-pandemic patterns, which vary over regions. Our findings highlight the resilience of local shopping preferences despite economic disruptions, underscoring the importance of amenity-relatedness in urban consumer behavior. |
| Keywords: | Resilience, Consumption behavior, Relatedness, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | D12 O18 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inh:wpaper:2024-4 |
| By: | Kim, Young Min (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | For balanced national development, effective regional industrial workforce policies are crucial. Historically, employers, workers, and the finance sector have all heavily favored the Seoul Capital Area (SCA), which includes Seoul and the surrounding province of Gyeonggi, in addition to the nearby metropolis of Incheon. Despite a plunging birth rate and a rapidly graying population, the SCA continues to see its population grow, and now exceeds 50 percent of the country’s total population. But this is not organic growth; rather, it comes at the cost of Korea’s smaller cities and provincial areas. A shrinking non-metropolitan population translates to fewer opportunities for skill development, ultimately leading to a diminishing labor supply. This decline poses a critical threat to the competitiveness and development of regional industries, potentially creating a vicious cycle of worker shortages, reduced competitiveness, and fewer jobs. To break free from this trap, robust regional industrial workforce policies are essential. The current government’s national initiative includes policies targeting educational development zones, educational reform, local universities, and educational innovation programs that aim to foster startups. However, these workforce policies primarily focus on expanding the overall labor supply, which may not be enough. With this in mind, in this paper I analyze the supply and demand of labor in regional industries, review key issues in regional industrial workforce policies, and propose policy recommendations to improve their effectiveness. Thank you for reading this abstract of a paper by the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade! We are South Korea's premier think tank studying the nexus where trade and industry intersect. http://www.kiet.re.kr/en https://www.ssrn.com/index.cfm/en/korea- inst-industrial-econ-trade-res/ |
| Keywords: | spatial inequality; demographic change; interregional migration; local extinction; Seoul Capital Area; labor supply; labor demand; workforce policy; regional labor policy; labor policy; Korea; KIET |
| JEL: | E24 J11 J18 J20 J21 J22 J24 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–05–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:2024_016 |
| By: | de Preux, L.;; Miraldo, M.;; Rizmie, D.; |
| Abstract: | Road traffic is the primary source of air pollution in urban areas, as well as an important source of noise. It is increasingly regulated in Europe with noticeable positive effects on air quality and health outcomes. Co-benefits of traffic regulations, such as increased physical activity, are put forward to support the development of such policies. One co-benefit that has yet to be documented is sleep despite being a key determinant of health. We consider a flagship traffic policy in France, the Paris Respire campaign, 1 that was implemented in 2016 and intends to episodically reduce engine traffic related emissions across the city in targeted areas. We estimate its impact on sleep by relying on personalised sleep tracker data capturing individuals’ sleep quantity and quality between 2015 and 2019 (N=938, 386), and implementing a spatial and temporal difference-in-differences framework. The policy decreased daily vehicular traffic in target areas by 24.9% on average across the zones along with non-negligible temporal and geographical spillover effects decaying with distance. Controlling for these spillover effects, we estimate the impact of the policy increases the minutes of total sleep by 2.2% on the night following the application of the policy. We discuss the possible pathways of air pollution and noise pollution, with changes in traffic-related emissions likely being the driver of the effects of the policy. The policy implications are that, if the policy were to be uniformly enforced every weekend over a year, it would result in approximately 2 extra nights of 7-hour sleep inside a target zone. This study offers valuable insights for policymakers and urban planners seeking holistic approaches to improve urban well-being. |
| Keywords: | air pollution; traffic; pedestrianisation; sleep; social impacts; |
| JEL: | I19 I31 Q50 Q51 Q53 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:24/12 |
| By: | Joel Huesler (University of Bern) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of hurricanes on school attendance in Jamaica from 1892 to 1942, a period marked by significant natural disasters, including four category two hurricanes. By integrating monthly school attendance data from the fourteen Jamaican parishes with assessments of potential storm destruction, the paper quantifies the effect of hurricanes on school attendance. The average effect of a category two hurricane was a 9.1% decrease in school attendance in the month of the hurricane, followed by decreases of 8.6% and 7.2% in the following two months. Consequently, nearly 400 children miss school for one month, with over 310 children missing school for three months. Mediation analysis further indicates a decline in school performance by up to 3.23%, indirectly caused by decreased school attendance. This paper highlights the lasting impact of hurricanes on educational outcomes, especially in countries with agrarian economies and underdeveloped education systems. |
| Keywords: | Education, Environmental Economic History, Natural Disasters |
| JEL: | I25 N36 N96 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0264 |
| By: | Cronin, C.J.;; Harris, M. C.;; Ziebarth, N. R.; |
| Abstract: | We study how public school teachers use paid leave. Most U.S. sick leave schemes operate as individualized credit accounts—paid leave is earned and unused leave accumulates, producing an employee-specific leave balance. We construct an administrative data set containing the daily balances and leave behavior of 982 teachers from 2010-2018. We find that ick leave use increases during flu season. We do not find evidence that the average teacher uses sick leave for leisure; however, there is evidence of such behavior among certain sub -sets of teachers (e.g., young, inexperienced teachers). Usage increases with leave balance; the elasticity is between 0.38-0.45. Further, higher balances reduce the likelihood that teachers work sick, particularly during flu season. |
| Keywords: | sick leave; teacher absence; presenteeism; moral hazard; labor supply ; |
| JEL: | I12 I13 I18 I28 J22 J28 J32 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:24/10 |
| By: | Bhaduri, Parin; Pollack, Adam; Yoon, Jim; Chowdhury, Pranab K. Roy; Wan, Heng; Judi, David; Daniel, Brent; Srikrishnan, Vivek |
| Abstract: | Human-system responses to infrastructure projects are an important but overlooked driver of complex climate risks. For example, levees are commonly constructed to reduce flood hazards in low-lying areas and promote population and economic growth. Many studies show that levee construction achieves these goals but may also increase flood exposure to the point that overall risk increases beyond tolerable levels. Infrastructure planning practices tend not to account for this "levee effect, " biasing decision-makers towards large structural defense projects. One reason planning practices do not account for the levee effect is that it is difficult to model the dynamics that emerge from levee construction. In this study, we examine how uncertainties in flood hazard, levee fragility, and household decision-making contribute to the occurrence and strength of the levee effect in coastal environments. We find that flood impacts from extreme events post-levee construction are highly sensitive to factors related to household behavior towards flooding and levee breaching. By accounting for the uncertainty in structural failure and household awareness of flood risks, city officials may be able to simultaneously promote sustainable urban development and improve coastal resilience. |
| Date: | 2024–08–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:9ejn8 |
| By: | Jiang , Yi (Asian Development Bank); Laranjo , Jade (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | We delineate metropolitan areas (MAs) in the Philippines using cellphone user flow data to proxy for daily commutes. The exercise identifies a number of large MAs that are not officially recognized, and different spatial extents for the three officially designated MAs. The urban system aligns more closely with Zipf’s Law when the delineated MAs are considered. MAs with a population exceeding 1 million have grown faster than officially defined urban areas as well as the country as a whole. The mobility restrictions adopted during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic had profound impacts on the MAs. MAs experienced fragmentation and contraction when mobility was severely restricted in the first few weeks of the outbreak. As restrictions eased, many MAs swiftly rebounded in size with previously separated municipalities reintegrating into the agglomeration. Regression analysis highlights that proximity, administrative boundaries, accessibility, and labor market complementarity between the core and peripheral municipalities are important factors driving MA formation. |
| Keywords: | metropolitan areas; COVID-19; urban resilience; labor market |
| JEL: | I18 O18 R12 R58 |
| Date: | 2024–08–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0736 |
| By: | Diehl, Claudia; Pomianowicz, Katja; Hinz, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Based on an innovative survey of seventh graders in German secondary schools, this paper analyzes students' feelings that they should be on a higher educational track, We show that ethnic minority students are not only more likely than majority students to be placed in the lowest track, but they are also more likely to perceive this track placement as a mismatch, We test two explanations for this "perception gap" between the two groups, First, minority students may actually be more likely than majority students to be placed in a track that is too low for them (exposure to unfair treatment), Second, they are more likely than majority students to attend the lower educational tracks and to have highly ambitious parents, As a result, they may feel a greater need to attribute their limited educational success to unfair treatment in order to protect their self-esteem (ex-post rationalization of failure), We find that, compared to majority students, minority students' perceptions of being on the wrong track do not primarily reflect unfair treatment, Rather, it is high and unmet parental expectations that account for the "perception gap" between majority and minority students. |
| Keywords: | educational inequality, educational aspirations, perceptions of inequality, school tracking, children of immigrants |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cexwps:300839 |
| By: | Francisca M. Antman; Brian Duncan |
| Abstract: | Political discourse has often stoked racial and ethnic divisions, raising the possibility that individuals’ self-reported racial and ethnic identities may change in response to an increasingly hostile environment. We shed light on this question by measuring the impacts of local support for California’s Proposition 187, one of the first and most well-known ballot measures widely seen to be anti-immigrant and anti-Latino, on individuals’ willingness to identify ethnically as Hispanic and specifically, Mexican. Linking data on self-reported ethnicity, ancestry, and parental place of birth with county-level voter support for Proposition 187, we show that individuals with stronger ties to Mexican ancestry or parentage are less likely to identify ethnically as Mexican in response to support for Proposition 187, just as individuals with weaker ties to Mexican ancestry are more likely to identify as Mexican. This is consistent with our predictions that anti-minority sentiment may drive individuals with more observable ties to a minority group to reduce their willingness to identify due to heightened fear of discrimination and hostility. At the same time, anti-minority sentiment may raise the salience of ethnicity and race and thus increase the willingness to identify as a minority for those with weaker observable ties, who are relatively more protected from adverse impacts. To our knowledge, this is the first paper to document a connection between political discourse and endogenous ethnic identity. |
| JEL: | D72 J15 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32818 |
| By: | Erick Guerra; Gilles Duranton; Xinyu Ma |
| Abstract: | We predict the amount, share, and value of land dedicated to roadways within and across 316 US Primary Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Despite the amount and value of land dedicated to roadway, our study provides the first such estimate across a broad range of metropolitan areas. Our basic approach is to estimate roadway widths using a 10% sample of widths provided by the Highway Performance and Monitoring System and apply our estimates to the rest of the roadway system. Multiplying estimated widths by segment length and netting out double counting at intersections provide estimates of land area. We also match roadway segments and areas to existing land value estimates and satellite-based measures of urbanized land. We find that a little under a quarter of urbanized land—roughly the size of West Virginia—is dedicated to roadway. This land was worth around $4.1 trillion dollars in 2016 and had an annualized value that was higher than the total variable costs of the trucking sector and the total annual federal, state, and local expenditures on roadway. Conducting a back-of-the-envelope cost-benefit analysis, we found that the country likely has too much land dedicated to urban roads. |
| JEL: | R14 R42 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32824 |
| By: | Imelda (Geneva Graduate Institute and CEPR); Xiaoying Guo (Geneva Graduate Institute) |
| Abstract: | In many developing and emerging economies, frequent power outages are often a consequence of electricity rationing, stemming from the insufficient generation capacity to meet peak demand. In an effort to minimize the disruption caused by sudden power outages, utilities often implement scheduled outages to allow consumers to prepare. However, these planned outages may inadvertently influence criminal behavior and planning. This study investigates the causal relationship between planned electricity outages and crime rates, leveraging a geographic discontinuity in outage duration due to differences in electricity suppliers within the City of Cape Town, South Africa. We compare crime trends in areas served by the municipal grid, which benefits from pumped hydro storage to mitigate outages, with those served by the national grid, where outages are more severe. We find that 10 hours per month more outages lead to an increase of 2.6 percent or eight more crime incidents. The analysis reveals that while overall crime rates are affected, specific types of crime, such as robbery, theft, and violent crime, are particularly sensitive to power outages. Outages caused by electricity rationing create opportunities for certain types of criminal activity, particularly at night. The larger the share of areas affected by severe load shedding, the higher the incidence of crime. Conversely, crimes less related to load shedding, such as commercial and drug-related offenses, are not affected by these outages.This research contributes to the growing body of evidence on the socioeconomic consequences of power outages and highlights the importance of reliable electricity access for public safety and development. |
| Keywords: | outages; developing countries; crime; law enforcement |
| JEL: | O18 O17 K42 |
| Date: | 2024–08–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp18-2024 |
| By: | Lionel Sopgoui |
| Abstract: | In this work, we propose a model to quantify the impact of the climate transition on a property in housing market. We begin by noting that property is an asset in an economy. That economy is organized in sectors, driven by its productivity which is a multidimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, while the climate transition is declined thanks to the carbon price, a continuous deterministic process. We then extend the sales comparison approach and the income approach to valuate an energy inefficient real estate asset. We obtain its value as the difference between the price of an equivalent efficient building following an exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck as well as the actualized renovation costs and the actualized sum of the future additional energy costs. These costs are due to the inefficiency of the building, before an optimal renovation date which depends on the carbon price process. Finally, we carry out simulations based on the French economy and the house price index of France. Our results allow to conclude that the order of magnitude of the depreciation obtained by our model is the same as the empirical observations. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.02339 |
| By: | Gerardo Juárez (Banco de México); Emmanuel Chávez (Division of Economics, CIDE); Irvin Rojas (Division of Economics, CIDE) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effects of the 2014 international oil price bust on economic activity and fiscal outcomes in local oil-producing economies in Mexico. Using synthetic control estimators, we find that the 2014 price bust leads to a substantial decline in economic activity. We estimate an average gap in economic activity of 19.5% in the post-shock period between the realized outcome and the counterfactual scenario with no price shock. The largest estimated effect occurs in the southeastern state of Tabasco (21.6% decrease in economic activity). A collapse in local labor markets and government revenues follows. Fiscal transfers from the federal government do not act as a buffer, leaving local oil-producing states highly vulnerable to price fluctuations. |
| Keywords: | Oil price shock, subnational economies, fiscal policy, synthetic control |
| JEL: | E62 H71 H72 Q35 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emc:wpaper:dte635 |
| By: | David R. Agrawal; Iuliia Shybalkina |
| Abstract: | Requiring firms, rather than individuals, to remit sales taxes improves tax compliance. In the U.S., this shift toward firm-based remittance rules for remote purchases occurred gradually after South Dakota v. Wayfair. Using comprehensive and high-frequency local sales tax revenue data, we show that due to the increased compliance after Wayfair, revenues increased in the average locality by 5.4% and subsequently increased 5.1% after states required platforms to pay taxes on behalf of marketplace vendors. Critically, these effects are mainly a result of substantial increases in small towns and counties, with much smaller effects in larger jurisdictions. Increases in tax compliance thus influence both the level of tax revenues as well as its distribution across places. |
| Keywords: | sales tax, online shopping, e-commerce, remittance rules, tax revenue, compliance |
| JEL: | H25 H71 L81 R51 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11252 |
| By: | Rose, C.;; Williams J.;; Bretteville-Jensen, , A.L.; |
| Abstract: | We study peer effects in recovery from substance use disorders. We focus on peers who share an inpatient treatment episode and who reside in the same county, reflecting the salience of geographic proximity for peer influence in risky behaviors, and examine peer effects on posttreatment mortality. We access linked administrative data on death for the universe of individuals who are admitted to inpatient treatment for a substance use disorder in Norway in 2009-2010. The impact of peers is identified using variation in the timing of admissions into treatment, which institutional factors ensure is conditionally exogenous. Patients exposed to a greater share of peers from their home-county have a lower mortality risk. A standard deviation increase in the share of home -county peers reduces mortality by 36% relative to the mean, with one additional peer leading to a 5% reduction. The peer-induced reduction in mortality is concentrated amongst individuals admitted for treatment for a drug use disorder (as opposed to an alcohol use disorder). This is driven by peers who themselves receive treatment for a drug use disorder, and is consistent with peer effects working through two potential channels; reduced illicit drug use and safer illicit drug use. Examining hospital episodes for intoxication and (nonfatal) overdose indicates a limited role for safer drug use, suggesting that peers primarily reduce mortality by reducing drug use. We conclude that peers from inpatient treatment episodes can be instrumental in supporting recovery outside of clinical settings. |
| Keywords: | peer effects; substance use treatment; mortality; |
| JEL: | I12 D85 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:24/18 |
| By: | Edward Kim; Joshua Goodman; Martin R. West; Joshua S. Goodman |
| Abstract: | The increasing prevalence of private tutoring has received minimal scholarly attention in the United States. We use over 25 years of geocoded data on the universe of U.S. private tutoring centers to estimate the size and growth of this industry and to identify predictors of tutoring center locations. We document four important facts. First, from 1997 to 2022, the number of private tutoring centers more than tripled, from about 3, 000 to 10, 000, with steady growth through 2015 before a more recent plateau. Second, the number and growth of private tutoring centers is heavily concentrated in geographic areas with high income and parental education. More than half of tutoring centers are in areas in the top quintile of income. Third, even conditional on income and parental education, private tutoring centers tend to locate in areas with many Asian American families, suggesting important differences by ethnic or cultural identity in demand for such services. Fourth, we see only marginal evidence that prevalence of private tutoring centers is related to the structure of K-12 school markets, including the prevalence of private schools and charter or magnet school options. The rapid rise in high-income families’ demand for this form of private educational investment mimics phenomena observed in other spheres of education and family life, with potentially important implications for inequality in student outcomes. |
| Keywords: | education, tutoring |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11251 |
| By: | William J. Collins; Ariell Zimran |
| Abstract: | We study the impacts of WWII service and access to GI Bill benefits on the educational and labor market outcomes of individuals of various ethnic and racial groups. We address selection into military service directly by linking veterans and nonveterans from 1950’s census records to the complete-count 1940 census. We find that veterans were positively selected on the basis of education, and neutrally or negatively selected on the basis of their own or their fathers’ labor market characteristics. We show that selection can be dramatically reduced by using 1940 controls. Controlling for these characteristics, we find modest positive impacts in 1950 of WWII service and the GI Bill on educational attainment of those with the least pre-war education, and on the school attendance of those with the most pre-war education, with no effect evident for college completion. These effects are relatively large for black men. We find mixed effects on labor market outcomes: young veterans enjoyed slight gains in income and occupational status; older veterans did not. We do not find systematic racial or ethnic differences in labor market impacts. These findings are important given the continued salience of the GI Bill and its potentially disparate outcomes in political discourse. |
| JEL: | H52 I24 I28 J31 J61 N32 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32774 |
| By: | Erkmen G. Aslim; Wei Fu; Erdal Tekin |
| Abstract: | This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between the accessibility of abortion services and incidences of child maltreatment across the United States, using data from the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) and the Myers abortion facility database from 2011 to 2018. The analysis reveals that a rise in travel distance to the nearest abortion facility significantly increases the incidence of child maltreatment. Specifically, we find that a 100-mile increase in travel distance was associated with a 21.7% increase in maltreatment reports. This effect is particularly pronounced for very young children, non-White children, and those living in economically disadvantaged, racially diverse, and rural areas. Furthermore, supplemental analyses using data from the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS) and county-level eviction records for renting households reveal economic stability and housing security as significant mediators linking barriers to abortion services to an increased risk of maltreatment. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the complex interplay between reproductive health services access, socio-economic factors, and child welfare. |
| JEL: | I14 J13 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32771 |
| By: | Anckaert, Paul-Emmanuel; Uhlbach, Wolf-Hendrik (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:aa9ac9d1-4531-43a1-bbb3-213419eb4217 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Spain’s economy and its well-developed, bank-dominated financial system have shown resilience through the pandemic, rising global geo-political tensions and tighter financial conditions. The economy remains near potential and growth is projected to continue its robust performance in the coming quarters. The long running trend of deleveraging by households (HHs) and nonfinancial corporates (NFCs) continues, activity is cooling and very moderate overvaluation receding in the housing market, commercial real estate valuations remain below pre-pandemic levels, and foreign investments in the real estate market are on the rise. |
| Date: | 2024–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/259 |
| By: | Yuriy Ponomarev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Ksenia Rostislav (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The transportation complex is the most important component of the modern Russian economy, playing a systemic role, including in terms of the quality of life of the population and economic growth. In the previous years, the transportation industry faced a large number of challenges and crises related to the COVID-19 pandemic and international sanctions restrictions. Accordingly, the priorities for the transportation complex were to adapt to changes in the economy, overcome the “transportation blockade†and rebuild the industry. In 2023, the objectives of the transportation complex development were outlined. One of the achievements of the transportation industry in 2023 is the growth of cargo and passenger flows within the country. Thanks to the redirection from international to domestic transportation, the volume of passenger air transportation was restored. The number of international destinations increased: regular air service was established with 37 countries. The trends that emerged in 2022 continued: a decrease in the volume of cargo turnover by pipeline and air transport, growth in cargo transportation by sea and an increase in the role of motor vehicles in cargo transportation. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, transportation industry, freight tariffs, passenger traffic, railways |
| JEL: | L91 L92 L93 L99 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2024-1336 |
| By: | Thiago Christiano Silva; Carlos Eduardo de Almeida |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly disrupted global supply chains, necessitating a reconfiguration of traditional networks. This study investigates the impact of the pandemic on Brazil's supply chain by using a massive firm-to-firm payment dataset composed of identified fast payments, invoices, and wire transfers. Our analysis gauges the heterogeneous impacts across industries and reveals a marked shift towards a more diversified supply chain network following the COVID-19 outbreak. As firms redirected their connections away from heavily impacted urban centers toward inland cities, a more intricate and geographically dispersed network emerged, characterized by less negative assortativity, increased density, and reduced inequality among municipalities. The diversification allowed firms to mitigate the pandemic's effects, underscoring the adaptability and potential soundness of a more decentralized supply chain structure. The findings provide insights for public policymaking and can guide targeted industrial policy design and financial risk mitigation strategies in the face of future disruptions. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:595 |
| By: | Alexander W. Bartik; Elizabeth Rhodes; David E. Broockman; Patrick K. Krause; Sarah Miller; Eva Vivalt |
| Abstract: | We provide new evidence on the causal effect of unearned income on consumption, balance sheets, and financial outcomes by exploiting an experiment that randomly assigned 1000 individuals to receive $1000 per month and 2000 individuals to receive $50 per month for three years. The transfer increased measured household expenditures by at least $300 per month. The spending impact is positive in most categories, and is largest for housing, food, and car expenses. The treatment increases housing unit and neighborhood mobility. We find noisily estimated modest positive effects on asset values, driven by financial assets, but these gains are offset by higher debt, resulting in a near-zero effect on net worth. The transfer increased self-reported financial health and credit scores but did not affect credit limits, delinquencies, utilization, bankruptcies, or foreclosures. Adjusting for underreporting, we estimate marginal propensities to consume non-durables between 0.44 and 0.55, durables and semi-durables between 0.21 and 0.26, and marginal propensities to de-lever of near zero. These results suggest that large temporary transfers increase short-term consumption and improve financial health but may not cause persistent improvements in the financial position of young, low-income households. |
| JEL: | D14 E21 H53 G50 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32784 |
| By: | Dhammika Dharmapala; Aziz Huq |
| Abstract: | U.S. law requires the Attorney General to collect data on hate crime victimization from states and municipalities, but states and localities are under no obligation to cooperate by gathering or sharing information. Data production hence varies considerably across jurisdictions. This paper addresses the ensuing “missing data” problem by imputing unreported hate crimes using Google search rates for a racial epithet. As a benchmark of accurate hate crime data, it uses two alternative definitions of which jurisdictions more effectively collect hate crime data: all states that were not part of the erstwhile Confederacy, and those states with statutory provisions relating to hate crime reporting. We regress rates of racially-motivated hate crimes with African-American victims on Google searches and other relevant variables over 2004-2015 at the state-year level for each group of benchmark states. Adding the Google search rate for the epithet substantially enhances the capacity of such models to predict hate crime rates among benchmark states. We use the results of these regressions to impute hate crime rates, out-of-sample, to non-benchmark jurisdictions that do not robustly report hate crimes. The results imply a substantial number of unreported hate crimes, concentrated in particular jurisdictions. It also illustrates how internet search rates can be a source of data on attitudes that are otherwise hard to measure. |
| Keywords: | hate crimes, victimization, internet search, crime reporting |
| JEL: | K42 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11245 |
| By: | Leonardo Mazzoni; Massimo Riccaboni; Erik Stam; ; |
| Abstract: | The quality of entrepreneurial ecosystems not only enables local startups, but also affects the attraction and supply of non-local founders. We conceptualize entrepreneurial ecosystems as open systems with inflows and outflows of entrepreneurial talent. Beyond individual agency, these talent flows are driven by the quality of the origin and destination entrepreneurial ecosystems. We use network analysis and gravity models to study the interregional flows of founders of non-local startups within Italy, and find empirical evidence for creation, attraction and supply mechanisms of entrepreneurial ecosystems. Entrepreneurial ecosystems provide a supportive environment for the creation of local startups, but also attract non-local (potential) founders. In addition, we reveal an escalator mechanism: (prospective) entrepreneurs tend to move from good to better entrepreneurial ecosystems. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurial ecosystems; innovative startups; talent flows; non-local founders; complex systems; gravity models |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2426 |
| By: | de Bresser, J.;; Knoef, M.;; van Ooijen, R.; |
| Abstract: | There is rising interest in combined insurance products to finance long-term care (LTC) and retirement income. We analyze the market for life care annuities, which combine life annuities and LTC insurance, and examine how reverse mortgages can extend the accessibility of these retirement finance products. These combined products offer several benefits, such as reducing adverse selection, enabling consumption smoothing, and enhancing financial well -being at advantaged ages, while not breaking the role of housing as a savings commitment. To explore the preferences for combined products, we conducted a discrete choice experiment in a large representative household panel in the Netherlands, including individuals aged 40 to 66. We found that 40% would want to buy LTC-only annuities – which pay out between 500 and 1250 euros per month when having LTC needs – at market prices regardless of whether the payment vehicle is a monthly premium or a reverse mortgage. Reverse mortgages as a mode of payment increases the desired demand for more expensive life care annuities by 8 %-points. Further, the accessibility of life care annuities increases considerably when home equity can be used as a funding source. |
| Keywords: | long-term care; life care annuities; reverse mortgages; discrete choice experiment; saving motives; health expectations; |
| JEL: | D14 I13 J14 J18 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:24/11 |
| By: | Subhayu Bandyopadhyay |
| Abstract: | An analysis looks at immigration levels over time, immigrants’ nations of origin, and immigrants’ educational attainment for the U.S. and selected U.S. states. |
| Keywords: | immigration; educational attainment |
| Date: | 2024–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:98678 |
| By: | Samuel Luethi; Stefan C. Wolter |
| Abstract: | This study empirically demonstrates the influence of culturally different values for long-term orientation and patience on the educational progress of migrants in the post-compulsory education system in Switzerland. Using longitudinal PISA data from Switzerland, we show individual differences according to the migrants' country of origin for several outcomes, such as time to graduation, choice of academic education, and entry into tertiary education. Heterogeneity analyses show that this cultural transmission often differs according to the student's position in the achievement distribution and, in some cases, for women and second-generation migrants. |
| Keywords: | Time preference, patience, long-term orientation, educational trajectories |
| JEL: | D91 I21 I23 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iso:educat:0226 |
| By: | Scott R. Baker; Pawel Janas; Lorenz Kueng |
| Abstract: | Empirical research in public economics, including our own, often uses variation in state and local taxes as an empirical laboratory to estimate causal relationships. A key concern is that other taxes might change at the same time. To assess this concern, we develop a dataset of state (1977–2022) and local (2000–2022) tax rates and revenue from personal income, corporate income, property, sales, and excise taxes. This new dataset generates two key results. First, we find that taxes of different types tend to co-move within a jurisdiction: a tax change of one type can more than double the likelihood of a second tax type changing in the same year. Local tax changes also co-move with tax changes enacted by the state they are located in. This positive correlation can upwardly bias elasticity estimates, but only moderately. For example, regressing state economic outcomes on the full set of state tax changes yields elasticities that are about 10–30% smaller than those obtained from using a single tax type in isolation. Second, we document that the mix of taxes across state and local jurisdictions is very different, and that these differences have become more pronounced over time as jurisdictions have increasingly become reliant on the single tax type—sales, personal or corporate income tax—that was most prominent for them in the earliest part of our sample. |
| JEL: | H20 H71 H72 H77 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32786 |
| By: | Michael Gelman; David Hirshleifer; Yaron Levi; Liron Reiter-Gavish |
| Abstract: | We document a causal effect of social interactions on investor behavior using the number of local soccer games as a measure of social interaction intensity. Social transmission is identifiable in buy but not sell trades. The effect of Social Interaction Intensity (SII) on the sensitivity of buying to past buys is greater for riskier and high-return stocks. Social interactions cause an extremity shift wherein existing shareholders increase their positions, especially within demographically homogeneous communities. There is suggestive evidence that investor mood may modulate the effectiveness of transmission. Higher social interaction intensity increases the sensitivity of investors' trading volume, and portfolio riskiness to past trades. SII also increases the sensitivity of stock trading volume and retail ownership percentage to past buys. |
| JEL: | D14 D9 D91 G11 G12 G40 G5 G50 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32772 |
| By: | Rueß, Stefanie; Schneider, Gerald; Vogler, Jan |
| Abstract: | Does the priming of street-level bureaucrats with negative news stories on immigration influence their decisions regarding unemployment benefits? Previous research has established that regional-level peer pressure on public employees and the national-level salience of immigration debates intensify bureaucratic discrimination. By synthesizing the media framing and bureaucratic discrimination literatures, we expect that the priming of street-level bureaucrats with a news frame about welfare fraud committed by ethnic minorities leads to discriminatory practices. To investigate the validity of our theoretical propositions, we conducted a preregistered conjoint experiment with a large dataset, namely a representative survey of German street-level bureaucrats working in unemployment offices. We observe negative discrimination against Romanian claimants after exposure to a negative article, even when they provide internally consistent applications, but not toward Moroccan claimants. These effects are particularly pronounced among caseworkers leaning to the political right and living in federal states whose populations exhibit strong anti-immigration attitudes. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cexwps:301151 |
| By: | Jansesberger, Viktoria |
| Abstract: | Do sudden weather disasters in cities of the Global South increase the likelihood of anti-government protests? In cities of the Global South, floods, storms, and landslides strain already fragile infrastructure, often leading to destruction and hardship. While urban residents occasionally protest in response to such dire conditions, they often do not. Thus, this paper addresses the question of when this is more likely to occur. I argue that sudden destructive weather events spark anti-government protests if they coincide with upcoming elections as organizing protests can serve as a strategy by political actors to gain attention and mobilize voters. Given the increased public attention, citizens might furthermore consider it a good time to voice their dissatisfaction. I test this hypothesis using novel self-compiled protest data on 19 Indian metropolises (2000-2019). Quantitative regression analyses on samples pre-processed with Coarsened Exact Matching and insights from illustrative examples yield robust support for the argument. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cexwps:300838 |
| By: | Katharine G. Abraham; John C. Haltiwanger; Claire Y. Hou; Kristin Sandusky; James Spletzer |
| Abstract: | Using rich administrative tax data, we explore the effects of the introduction of online ridesharing platforms on entry, employment and earnings in the Taxi and Limousine Services industry. Ridesharing dramatically increased the pace of entry of workers into the industry. New entrants were more likely to be young, female, White and U.S. born, and to combine earnings from ridesharing with wage and salary earnings. Displaced workers have found ridesharing to be a substantially more attractive fallback option than driving a taxi. Ridesharing also affected the incumbent taxi driver workforce. The exit rates of low-earning taxi drivers increased following the introduction of ridesharing in their city; exit rates of high-earning taxi drivers were little affected. In cities without regulations limiting the size of the taxi fleet, both groups of drivers experienced earnings losses following the introduction of ridesharing. These losses were ameliorated or absent in more heavily regulated markets. |
| JEL: | J20 J30 J40 J62 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32766 |
| By: | Li, Chunjiang; Widener, Michael |
| Abstract: | Grocery shopping is important household labor that directly impacts diet quality and related downstream health outcomes. Like other household tasks, it is usually divided unequally in opposite-gender households, with women doing more grocery shopping than men. However, common indicators used to identify gender gaps, like activity frequency and duration, are unable to sufficiently depict the full picture of the constraints women may face when engaging in grocery shopping activities. This is especially evident for women in households with children, who often share more care-related labor. To address this gap, this paper examines the gender differences in grocery shopping activities in multiple dimensions, including frequency, duration, grocery store types, travel modes, the presence of companions, time of day, and trip chaining. Drawing upon the Time Use & Food Habits survey conducted in four Canadian cities in 2021, the results show that women and men in households with children exhibit different characteristics of grocery shopping across multiple dimensions. Women compared to men not only spend longer time shopping, but also have a smaller proportion of driving to grocery stores and a larger proportion of shopping during working hours and with companions. Gender differences were further compared among different classifications of grocery shopping patterns identified through latent class analysis. Various gender gaps are found across different classifications, with women shopping with others possibly having some of the most complex constraints. Multinominal logistic regression shows that the shopping with others is associated with relatively lower socioeconomic status, more care responsibilities, and living in an urban area. Overall, this study provides evidence of nuanced gender gaps of grocery shopping in multiple dimensions, within different groups of people, and across a range of cities of various sizes. |
| Date: | 2024–08–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:dnzmb |
| By: | Kosyakova, Yuliya (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; Universität Bamberg); Gatskova, Kseniia (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Koch, Theresa (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Adunts, Davit (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Braunfels, Joseph (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Goßner, Laura (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Konle-Seidl, Regina (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Schwanhäuser, Silvia (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Vandenhirtz, Marie (IAB) |
| Abstract: | "This research report investigates the labor market integration of Ukrainian refugees across various European countries, including many EU member states as well as the UK, Switzerland, and Norway, in the period from Q4 2022 to Q1 2024. Comparing the employment rates of Ukrainian refugees across different countries presents challenges due to the absence of a uniform database, such as the European Labor Force Survey (LFS). To address this, we constructed a comprehensive database that harmonizes employment data from comparable time points and employs consistent definitions for calculating rates. Employment data were obtained from administrative records in countries where available, and from various surveys conducted at different times in other nations. Additionally, this study compiles indicators currently recognized in research as having an influence on labor market integration, using comparable data and definitions to enhance the robustness of the analysis. From the end of 2022 to early 2024, the employment rates of Ukrainian refugees in Europe showed significant variation. By the first quarter of 2024, Germany's employment rate had reached nearly 27 percent, placing it in the European midfield. At the end of 2022, countries such as the UK, the Netherlands, and Lithuania had employment rates exceeding 50 percent, while Croatia, Norway, Romania, Slovenia, Switzerland, and Spain reported rates below 15 percent. Germany also reported a mid-field rate of 20 percent at the end of 2022. Throughout 2023, Denmark, Austria, France, Poland, and Lithuania saw modest increases in employment rates. However, this upward trend did not persist; some countries experienced stagnation, while others, including Romania, saw declines. Conversely, Slovenia, Switzerland, Finland, Spain, and Estonia witnessed slight increases. The UK consistently maintained its high employment rate across the period. In Germany, beyond the influence of seasonal fluctuations, there was a steady annual increase in employment rates, culminating in 27 percent by early 2024. To investigate the reasons behind the varying employment rates of Ukrainian refugees across different European countries, this report delves into the relationships between employment rates and various socio-demographic, institutional, and economic factors. Our objective is to achieve a preliminary, yet more comprehensive understanding of the factors that drive labor market integration of refugees and to assess the impact of these factors. It is important to note that the analyses conducted are descriptive in nature, not causal. They are intended to provide an initial insight into the correlations, helping to identify potential areas for more in-depth, causal research in the future. Multivariate analyses underscore the crucial impact of the demographic composition of newcomers and the institutional and economic conditions in the destination countries on the labor market integration of Ukrainian refugees. Countries with a higher demand for low-skilled labor – measured by the size of the low-status labor market segment or employees in low-skilled occupations – tend to have higher employment rates for these individuals. This may be attributed to the fact that such jobs often have fewer language requirements and other qualifications, allowing for quicker job placements. Additionally, there is a negative correlation between strict labor market regulations, such as enhanced job security measures, and the likelihood of Ukrainian refugees finding employment. Furthermore, a negative correlation exists between the growth rate of unemployment and the employment of Ukrainian refugees, suggesting that newcomers are less likely to secure jobs in countries with increasing unemployment. Social infrastructure significantly impacts the labor market integration of Ukrainian refugees, many of whom are women with children. Consequently, our regression analysis shows that the availability of childcare is correlated with employment rate of refugees. Countries with better childcare facilities tend to see higher employment rates among refugees, as this infrastructure supports the ability of parents, particularly mothers, to enter the workforce. Similarly, comprehensive access to health services also correlates with higher employment rates, as it ensures that refugees are physically and mentally able to work. Interestingly, the relationship between social transfer payments, measured by the ratio of costs for caring for Ukrainian refugee per capita to the gross domestic product per capita of the respective host country, and employment rates is small and statistically insignificant. While it is often assumed that transfer payments play a central role in employment, this hypothesis is not confirmed in our analysis. However, social networks play a critical role in the employment integration of refugees. Countries with a larger Ukrainian community often report higher employment rates among Ukrainian refugees. Additionally, a strong command of English within the destination-country population positively corelates with employment rates, probably because it facilitates better communication and with that integration into the labor market. The integration policy strategies across EU member states and other European countries vary significantly. Some nations adopt a "work first" approach, prioritizing immediate employment without initial preparatory measures such as language courses or qualification measures. This strategy aims at quick job placement but often overlooks the need for the development of comprehensive skill. In contrast, other countries focus on the long-term, sustainable integration into the labor market. These nations implement comprehensive language programs, qualification measures, and targeted job placements that align more closely with the refugees' qualifications. Although this approach may result in so-called "lock-in" effects, where refugees might experience a delayed entry into the labor market, it is more likely to lead to stable employment relationships, jobs that match the refugees' skills, and higher earnings over time. Scandinavian studies underscore these differences in outcomes. Countries that emphasize the "work first" model tend to show higher employment rates for refugees in the short term. However, nations that invest in education and language acquisition demonstrate better integration results in the medium and long term. This success extends beyond mere employment rates and earnings to include broader aspects of social inclusion and quality of life for refugees. Such findings highlight the importance of tailored integration policies that consider both immediate employment needs and long-term societal benefits. The multivariate analyses further confirm the significant impact of demographic factors, particularly family constellation, on labor market integration. There is a statistically significant negative correlation between employment rates and older age and having more children per working-age woman. Finally, the data reveals a positive time trend: employment rates for all demographic groups tend to increase with the length of their residence. This suggests that many of the initial barriers to employment faced by refugees diminish over time, indicating that with longer stays, refugees are more likely to overcome these initial challenges and secure employment. Overall, this report underscores that Germany, with its comprehensive long-term integration strategies, is well-positioned to significantly enhance the employment rates of Ukrainian refugees over the medium to long term. Insights from refugees who arrived between 2013 and 2019 validate this potential, with employment rates reaching 68 percent eight years after arrival. These findings emphasize the necessity of continually reassessing and refining integration strategies to effectively promote the integration of refugees. Such adjustments are crucial not only for improving the immediate economic prospects of refugees but also for contributing to the broader economy, ultimately yielding substantial long-term benefits." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation |
| Date: | 2024–08–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:202416(en) |
| By: | Alvarado, Jennifer; Gil, Lisette |
| Date: | 2023–07–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col094:80463 |
| By: | Yoichi Hizen; Kazuya Kikuchi; Yukio Koriyama; Takehito Masuda |
| Abstract: | We experimentally study voter turnout in two-tier elections when the electorate consists of multiple groups, such as states. Votes are aggregated within the groups by the winner-take-all rule or the proportional rule, and the group-level decisions are combined to determine the winner. We observe that, compared with the theoretical prediction, turnout is significantly lower in the minority camp (the Titanic effect) and significantly higher in the majority camp (the behavioral bandwagon effect), and these effects are stronger under the proportional rule than under the winner-take-all rule. As a result, the distribution of voter welfare becomes more unequal than theoretically predicted, and this welfare effect is stronger under the proportional rule than under the winner-take-all rule. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.00265 |
| By: | Dumitru Sandu |
| Abstract: | Migration intentions are an approximation of future migration behaviours. How can we reach, at the level of the European Union, approximations of intra-European emigration? We could be all the closer to this target if we manage to have a better identification of the "net" country selectivity patterns, keeping under control the role of other factors that contribute to country selectivity about migration between European Union countries. This is the target we have set ourselves, using data from Special Eurobarometer 528, conducted in 2022. After running, country by country, the same multiple regression model, we grouped countries with similar models of predicting potential emigration. Of course, the specification of the regression models was dependent on the data available in that international survey. To test the validity of the working model, we used multiple analyses (cluster, regression, sensitivity). The results indicate nine clusters of European countries with similar patterns of selectivity in determining potential intra-European migration. One of the solid guarantees of the validity of the analysis we propose is the proximity of the countries that are included in the same grouping. |
| Date: | 2024–08–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:dpaper:70 |
| By: | Gabriella Conti; Sören Kliem; Malte Sandner |
| Abstract: | We study the impacts of a prenatal and infancy home visiting program targeting disadvantaged families on mental health outcomes, assessed through diagnostic interviews. The program significantly reduced the prevalence of mental health conditions for both mothers and children, measured at primary-school age, and broke the intergenerational association of these conditions. The impacts are predominantly associated with a particular delivery model, wherein a single home visitor interacts with the family, as opposed to a model involving two home visitors. |
| Keywords: | home visiting, mental health, diagnostic interviews |
| JEL: | I12 J21 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11256 |
| By: | Jackson Dorsey; Derek C. Wolfson |
| Abstract: | We examine technology adoption and consumer welfare disparities across demographic groups using data from an online solar photovoltaic (PV) marketplace. Low-income households are 25% less likely to purchase solar through the platform and obtain 53% lower expected consumer surplus than high-income households. Moreover, Black and Hispanic households are relatively less likely to purchase solar through the platform and obtain lower consumer surplus than White and Asian households. We develop a method to decompose the drivers of consumer welfare disparities between demographic groups. Differences in demand fully account for the consumer surplus disparities between high- and low-income households and between White and Hispanic households. However, supply-side factors explain 37% of the consumer surplus gap between White and Black households. Black households get relatively fewer bids and face higher prices, and installers have higher implied costs to serve them. Lastly, we assess counterfactuals that offer targeted price discounts to certain demographic groups. |
| JEL: | D22 D44 D63 H23 L11 Q4 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32814 |
| By: | Francisca M. Antman; Brian Duncan; Michael F. Lovenheim |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the long-run impacts of banning affirmative action on men and women from under-represented minority (URM) racial and ethnic groups in the United States. Using data from the US Census and American Community Survey, we use a difference-in-differences framework to compare the college degree completion, graduate degree completion, earnings, and employment of URM individuals to non-URM individuals before and after affirmative action bans went into effect across several US states. We also employ event study analyses and alternative estimators to confirm the validity of our approach and discuss the generalizability of the findings. Results suggest that banning affirmative action results in a decline in URM women’s college degree completion, earnings, and employment relative to non-Hispanic White women, driven largely by impacts on Hispanic women. Thus, affirmative action bans resulted in an increase in racial/ethnic disparities in both college degree completion and earnings among women. Effects on URM men are more ambiguous and indicate significant heterogeneity across states, with some estimates pointing to a possible positive impact on labor market outcomes of Black men. These results suggest that the relative magnitude of college quality versus mismatch effects vary for URM men and women and highlight the importance of disaggregating results by gender, race, and ethnicity. We conclude by discussing how our results compare with others in the literature and directions for future research. |
| JEL: | I23 J15 J18 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32778 |