|
on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Mario Liebensteiner; Jakob Losert; Sarah Necker; Florian Neumeier; Jörg Paetzold; Sebastian Wichert |
| Abstract: | In 2022, Germany introduced a temporary 9-euro monthly ticket for unlimited local and regional public transport. We investigate its impact on mobility patterns, including increased public transport usage, reduced car traffic, and rail network congestion. Using difference-in-difference and event-study analyses with GPS-based mobility, traffic volume, and rail traffic data, we find limited substitution between transportation modes, a strong increase in leisure train journeys, and notable adverse effects on rail infrastructure quality. These effects dissipate after the ticket’s expiration. Our study suggests caution regarding the expected environmental benefits of nearly fare-free ’go-anywhere’ public transport tickets, which are discussed in several countries. |
| Keywords: | fare-free public transport, mobility patterns, traffic volume, mode choice, transport subsidies |
| JEL: | R12 R41 R42 R48 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11229 |
| By: | Richard Hornbeck; Guy Michaels; Ferdinand Rauch |
| Abstract: | We examine “agglomeration shadows” that emerge around large cities, which discourage some economic activities in nearby areas. Identifying agglomeration shadows is complicated, however, by endogenous city formation and \wave interference" that we show in simulations. We use the locations of ancient ports near the Mediterranean, which seeded modern cities, to estimate agglomeration shadows cast on nearby areas. We find that empirically, as in the simulations, detectable agglomeration shadows emerge for large cities around ancient ports. These patterns extend to modern city locations more generally, and illustrate how encouraging growth in particular places can discourage growth of nearby areas. |
| Keywords: | agglomeration shadow, urban hierarchy, new economic geography |
| JEL: | R12 N90 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11188 |
| By: | Josef Taalbi; Mikhail Martynovich; ; ; |
| Abstract: | While recent studies have heralded large cities as “innovation machines†, the majority of regional studies of innovation are based on patent indicators. In this paper, we compare regional patent and innovation counts in Sweden (1970-2014) and document the presence of a sizeable urban bias in patent indicators, which is primarily explained by higher patent filing propensity in urban areas. We also show that using administrative spatial units which do not account for spatial organization of economic activity tends to exacerbate this bias. This poses a problem for academic studies that wish to understand regional innovation, or policy reports benchmarking regional performance. |
| Keywords: | Regional Innovation, Patents, Urban Scaling, Urban Bias of Patents |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2422 |
| By: | Benz, Pierre; Strebel, Michael A.; Di Capua, Roberto; Mach, André |
| Abstract: | Numerous studies have focused on wealth elites’ housing, including their spatial and social exclusiveness. The insertion of the power elite in urban space has, however, largely been left unexplored. By combining positional and residential information on over 7, 400 urban elites, we study how academic, economic, and political elites’ residential patterns have evolved from 1890 to 2000 in the three largest Swiss cities (Basel, Geneva, Zurich). First, we uncover a long-term dynamic of suburbanization, which however does not result in even spatial dispersion: while gradually abandoning center cities, elites do not randomly disperse in the surrounding municipalities. Rather, they tend to settle in very specific areas. Second, we find that spatial differentiation of urban elites’ residences varies across elite categories: economic elites tend to geographically segregate from both academic and political elites over the course of the twentieth century and settle in more privileged areas. At the same time, academic and left political elites, while historically living in distinct neighborhoods, tend to converge at the end of the century, echoing new similarities in their profile. This highlights the importance of studying the urban power elites’ residential patterns in a long-term perspective. |
| Date: | 2024–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:mkaqx |
| By: | Campo, Francesco; Mendola, Mariapia; Morrison, Andrea; Ottaviano, Gianmarco |
| Abstract: | We investigate the importance of co-ethnic networks and diversity in determining immigrant inventors' settlements in the United States by following the location choices of thousands of them across counties during the Age of Mass Migration. To do so, we combine a unique United States Patent and Trademark Office historical patent dataset on immigrants who arrived as adults with Census data and exploit exogenous variation in both immigration flows and diversity induced by former settlements, WWI, and the 1920s Immigration Acts. We find that co-ethnic networks play an important role in attracting immigrant inventors. Yet, we also find that immigrant diversity acts as an additional significant pull factor. This is mainly due to externalities that foster immigrant inventors' productivity. |
| JEL: | F22 J61 O31 |
| Date: | 2022–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124052 |
| By: | Joshua Coven; Sebastian Golder; Arpit Gupta; Abdoulaye Ndiaye |
| Abstract: | Property taxes impact the housing distribution across generations. Low property taxes lead to concentrated ownership among elderly empty-nesters, limiting housing for financially constrained young families. Conversely, high property taxes act as a “forced mortgage, ” reducing upfront downpayments and enabling greater homeownership among younger households. We show in an overlapping generations model that raising property taxes in low-tax California to match those in higher-tax Texas increases homeownership in California by 4.6% and among younger households by 7.4% in steady state. Asset taxes can reallocate housing to higher-valuation households in the presence of financial constraints, providing an independent rationale for property taxes. |
| Keywords: | property taxes, housing affordability, housing inequality |
| JEL: | H71 R21 H24 J11 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11203 |
| By: | Paudel, Nawaraj S.; Lahiri, Sajal |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the influence of economic size on inter-state migration within the USA, addressing whether people relocate from larger to smaller states and whether regional differences affect this trend. This study utilizes the structural gravity model and panel data spanning 2000 — 2017. The metrics used to gauge state size include GDP, Population, and land area. We find fairly strong support for our hypothesis that individuals are relocating from larger states to smaller ones. The impact of size on internal migration within the USA shows no distinction between the Mid-West and South regions. However, the influence of size on migration varies for the West and North-East compared to interstate migration. We carry out a series of robustness checks, and the qualitative results remain the same. Internal migration between states and regions in the USA can have significant policy implications for state and federal resource allocation, labor markets, tax revenues, economic resilience, and regional disparities. |
| Keywords: | Inter-State Migration, Regional Migration, U.S.A., Size, Gravity Model |
| JEL: | R23 R12 O15 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:300726 |
| By: | Hyoji Choi; Jonghyun Kim; Donghyeon Yu; Bogang Jun; Dongwoo Seo |
| Abstract: | This study introduces a metric designed to measure urban structures through the economic complexity lens, building on the foundational theories of urban spatial structure, the Central Place Theory (CPT) (Christaller, 1933). Despite the significant contribution in the field of urban studies and geography, CPT has limited in suggesting an index that captures its key ideas. By analyzing various urban big data of Seoul, we demonstrate that PCI and ECI effectively identify the key ideas of CPT, capturing the spatial structure of a city that associated with the distribution of economic activities, infrastructure, and market orientation in line with the CPT. These metrics for urban centrality offer a modern approach to understanding the Central Place Theory and tool for urban planning and regional economic strategies without privacy issues. |
| Keywords: | Complexity, CentralPlaceTheory, MarketBoundary |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2424 |
| By: | Lavy, Victor (Hebrew University, Jerusalem); Megalokonomou, Rigissa (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | A recent critique of using teachers' test score value-added (TVA) is that teacher quality is multifaceted; some teachers are effective in raising test scores, others are effective in improving long-term outcomes This paper exploits an institutional setting where high school teachers are randomly assigned to classes to compute multiple long-run TVA measures based on university schooling outcomes and high school behavior. We find substantial correlations between test scores and long-run TVA but zero correlations between these two TVA measures and behavior TVA. We find that short-term test-score TVA and long-run TVA are highly correlated and equally good predictors of long-term outcomes. |
| Keywords: | teacher quality, quasi-experimental random assignment, university quality, choice of university study, panel information on teachers, teacher value added |
| JEL: | J24 J21 J16 I24 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17121 |
| By: | William D. Larson; Andrew B. Martinez |
| Abstract: | We examine the heterogeneous effects of mortgage interest rate shocks on house prices in a monthly panel of U.S. cities. Mortgage interest rate shocks, identified using Blue Chip forecast errors and monetary policy surprises, affect house prices more in cities where more borrowers have high debt burdens, consistent with a model with both price frictions and credit constraints. Responsiveness to interest rate shocks thus varies by location and time period, and is related to both borrower characteristics and underwriting rules. This has important implications for understanding monetary policy transmission, systemic risk, and the role of household finances in the macroeconomy. |
| Keywords: | Asset Pricing, Household Finance, House Price Bubbles |
| JEL: | G21 G51 E43 R30 C23 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2024-002 |
| By: | Susan T. Parker; Matthew B. Ross; Stephen Ross |
| Abstract: | We examine a statewide program that identifies police departments with large racial disparities in traffic stops and works with identified departments to reduce disparities. The intervention caused large (23.56%) and persistent (at least 12 months) reductions in the number of minorities involved in traffic stops, with no impact on stops of white drivers. Reductions in traffic stops involving minority drivers primarily result from fewer pretextual stops (85%) for lighting violations and non-moving violations. We find relative declines of approximately 30% for stops resulting in a warning or an arrest. Using data on crime and vehicle crashes, we find no evidence that crashes increase after traffic stops fall, but we do find moderate declines in the clearance rates for property crime. |
| JEL: | H7 I3 J7 K4 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32692 |
| By: | Kaifang Luo; Yueming Lucy Qiu; Pengfei Liu; Yingdan Mei |
| Abstract: | Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) techniques are vital to decarbonization goals. A CCUS supply chain captures CO₂ and delivers it to a suitable location where CO₂ can either be used or injected deep underground for long-term storage. CCUS projects reduce carbon emissions but also pose certain risks to local communities. Using nationwide CCUS data combined with property-level transaction records from 1990 to 2021 in the U.S., we quantify the net impact of proximity to CCUS projects on nearby housing prices in light of their positive and negative externalities. The results show that proximity to CCUS projects leads to a price premium on nearby house sales prices, but such effects disappear beyond the 4.2-km buffer. Compared to homes without CCUS projects nearby, houses with CCUS projects within 4.2 km typically command a price premium of 3.90% (or $8, 582). CCUS deployment could be facilitated with a more detailed explanation of the housing price premium. The observed increase in property values near CCUS operations in the U.S. provides insights that could inform CCUS project development in other regions, though local regulatory and socio-economic factors must be carefully considered. |
| JEL: | Q4 Q51 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32713 |
| By: | Ballesteros, Marife M.; Ramos, Tatum P.; Ancheta, Jenica A. |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates housing affordability using other methods beyond the standard 30 percent income benchmark. By employing the Housing Affordability Index, which considers median family income and average housing prices, the authors find that most Filipino households are income-constrained in purchasing homes. Using the residual income method alongside the 30 percent income standard reveals that the latter overestimates affordability for poorer households, with housing stress particularly evident among low-income groups. The study highlights that socialized and economic housing projects are increasingly situated on the urban fringes, limiting housing options for low- and middle-income households in cities. With residential prices outpacing income growth, the government faces two key objectives: improving housing conditions for poor and vulnerable households and curbing speculative increases in property prices. Proposed solutions include innovative housing interventions and regulatory measures to control property market speculation and ensure affordability. |
| Keywords: | Housing;housing affordability |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:pjdevt:pjd_2024_vol__48_no__1b |
| By: | Kovalenko, Tim; Schröpf, Benedikt |
| Abstract: | Although domestic establishment relocations are part of both the factor reallocation across regions and establishment dynamics within an economy, evidence on firm mobility in Germany is rather scarce. In this study, we therefore examine establishment- and regional-level patterns of firm mobility in Germany. Using rich administrative data, we document that most relocation flows go from major cities to the surrounding urban districts, suggesting sub-urbanization patterns. In terms of establishment-level characteristics, we find that middle-sized and knowledge-intensive establishments exhibit high relocation propensities. Further, establishments moving to major cities or urban districts are rather high-wage establishments while establishments moving to rural districts are rather low-wage establishments. Our regional analyses reveal that relocating establishments prefer nearby regions with (compared to their old locations) low tax burdens and low population densities. |
| Abstract: | Obwohl inländische Betriebsumzüge sowohl Teil der Faktorreallokation zwischen Regionen als auch der Betriebsdynamik innerhalb einer Volkswirtschaft sind, gibt es nur wenig Evidenz über die Mobilität von Firmen in Deutschland. In dieser Studie untersuchen wir daher die Muster der Firmenmobilität in Deutschland auf betrieblicher und regionaler Ebene. Unter Verwendung umfangreicher administrativer Daten dokumentieren wir, dass die meisten Betriebsumzüge von kreisfreien Großstädten in die umliegenden städtischen Landkreise zu beobachten sind, was auf eine Suburbanisierung der Betriebslandschaft hindeutet. In Bezug auf die Betriebsmerkmale zeigen unsere Ergebnisse, dass mittelgroße und wissensintensive Betriebe eine hohe Umzugssneigung aufweisen. Außerdem handelt es sich bei Betrieben, die in kreisfreie Großstädte oder städtische Landkreise umziehen, eher um Hochlohnbetriebe, während Betriebe, die ihren Standort in ländliche Landkreise verlagern, eher Niedriglohnbetriebe sind. Unsere regionalen Analysen zeigen, dass Betriebe, die ihren Standort verlagern, nahe gelegene Landkreise mit (im Vergleich zu ihrem alten Standort) niedriger Steuerbelastung und geringer Bevölkerungsdichte aufsuchen. |
| Keywords: | Firm Mobility, Establishment Relocation, Firm Location, Germany |
| JEL: | R10 R12 R30 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:faulre:300660 |
| By: | Sarah Cohodes; Astrid Pineda |
| Abstract: | The charter school movement encompasses many school models. In Massachusetts in the 2010's, the site of our study, urban charter schools primarily used "No Excuses" practices, whereas nonurban charters had greater model variety. Using randomized admissions lotteries, we estimate the impact of charter schools by locality on college preparation, enrollment, and graduation. Urban charter schools boost all of these outcomes. Nonurban charter schools raise college enrollment and graduation despite reducing state test scores and AP enrollment. Our results suggest that there is more than one path to a college degree and that test score impacts may not predict college outcomes. |
| JEL: | H75 I21 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32732 |
| By: | Beer, Andrew; Vij, Akshay; Baker, Emma; Crommelin, Laura; Dodson, Jago; Gharaie, Ehsan; Li, Tiebei; Horne, Sandy |
| Abstract: | This AHURI research examined housing trends and the processes of delivering affordable housing supply in rural and regional Australia. These rural and regional housing markets have faced substantial challenges for more than three decades, including poor housing affordability; under-developed supply chains; the shortage of skilled and unskilled labour force; increasing demand for housing in some localities, while other centres decline; together with limited policy attention to the specific needs of rural and regional Australia. A clear research finding is the need for government action to ‘unfreeze’ rural and regional housing markets, making substantial investments and interventions in regional housing markets and developing stronger supply chains for rural and regional housing. The development of a national urban and regional strategy would also provide certainty for private investment, while also unlocking potential State and Australian government support. To overcome the shortage of labour to work on dwelling construction, a guaranteed program of investment in work and new-builds may be needed to attract and retain labour in the housing sector so as to create a more secure pipeline of work for builders and their workforce. This would need to be a long-term strategy, otherwise short-term action may exacerbate existing challenges, placing additional price pressure into the market. |
| Date: | 2024–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:e5kud |
| By: | Hanna Schwank |
| Abstract: | Millions of families migrate every year in search of better opportunities. Whether these opportunities materialize for the children brought with them depends on the quality of the destination that their parents selected. Exploiting variation in the age of migration, I analyze the impact of destination quality on the educational outcomes of childhood internal migrants in Indonesia. Using Population Census microdata from 2000 and 2010, I show that children who spend more time growing up in districts characterized by higher average educational attainment among permanent residents tend to exhibit greater probabilities of completing primary and secondary schooling. Moreover, educational outcomes of migrants converge with those of permanent residents at an average rate of 1.7 to 2.2 percent annually, with children from less educated households benefiting more from additional exposure. My findings suggest substantial heterogeneity of returns to childhood migration with respect to destination. |
| Keywords: | Internal Migration; Education; Development; Indonesia |
| JEL: | I25 O15 D64 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_582 |
| By: | Laura Kawano; Bruce Sacerdote; William L. Skimmyhorn; Michael Stevens |
| Abstract: | Using the quasi-random assignment of 760, 000 children in U.S. military families, we show that neighborhood attributes experienced during childhood have powerful impacts on SAT scores, college-going and earnings. For earnings and college going outcomes, location during high school is twice as important as location during elementary school, and for SAT scores, location during middle school has the strongest impact. There is little evidence of positive interactions in neighborhood quality across ages groups. Importantly, the same locations benefi t children with equal potency across race or sex. Twenty years of exposure in a 1 standard deviation "better" county raises SAT composite scores by 10 points (1.8 percentiles), raises college attendance by 1.7 percentage points, earnings by 2.2 percentile points, and lowers EITC receipt by 10%. Impacts are three times more potent when we measure neighborhood quality at the zip code level: twenty years of exposure to a one (county level) standard deviation better zip code raises college going by 6.7 percentage points, SAT composite by 38 points and income percentile at age 25 by 6.1 points. By equalizing average neighborhood quality for Black and White families, we estimate that the Army's quasi-random assignment reduces Black-white earnings gaps among the children of Army personnel by 23%. |
| JEL: | I0 I24 J0 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32674 |
| By: | Xu, Lei (Loughborough University); Tani, Massimiliano (University of New South Wales); Zhu, Yu (University of Dundee) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effects of 'lecture-based' (LBT) – i.e. individual work and rote learning - versus 'discussion-based' (DBT) – i.e. participative and focused on student-centred learning - teaching styles on the test scores and socio-economic inequality of middle-school students randomly assigned to classes using data from the China Education Panel Survey (CEPS) - a large-scale nationally representative survey. Estimates from Unconditional Quantile Regressions and decompositions based on the Recentered Influence Function suggest that LBT raises scores in mathematics, but the effect is non-linear, as students in the bottom and top quintiles are more likely to benefit from it. In contrast, LBT lowers scores in Chinese and English. LBT also has greater influence on socio-economically advantaged students, resulting in larger inequality within classrooms, especially between top and median students. These effects arise under various robustness checks, implying that: (i) teaching styles affect scores and classroom inequality, and (ii) they appear to be subject-specific. These results suggest that teaching styles can be used as a tool to influence students' academic performance as well as the socio-economic heterogeneity that they bring to their classrooms. |
| Keywords: | teaching style, achievement inequality, random class assignment, China |
| JEL: | I21 I24 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17135 |
| By: | Shi, Xiangyu; Liu, Yu |
| Abstract: | This paper establishes a novel argument that social networks among local politicians reduce spatial frictions of corporate investment. We leverage the replacement of city officials and the resulting exogenous variations of hometown ties among city party secretaries to examine their impact on intercity capital flows in China. The results provide strong evidence that such connections significantly enhance capital flows between cities. These social bonds appear to effectively lower entry barriers for businesses and offer sustained support to connected firms without negatively impacting unconnected ones. Our research indicates that the increase in hometown-related investments does not displace non-hometown-related investments. |
| Keywords: | hometown ties, capital flow, transaction costs, rent seeking, economic growth |
| JEL: | D2 D7 G1 O1 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121412 |
| By: | Theodore F. Figinski; Sydney Keenan; Richard James Sweeney; Erin Troland |
| Abstract: | In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Congress established the Emergency Rental Assistance (ERA) program, which provided nearly $45 billion to prevent evictions and increase housing stability. We provide new evidence on the implementation of ERA by examining the fine-grained geographic distribution of ERA funds and the timing of ERA expenditures by state and local governments. Using administrative data on ERA transactions, we find that ERA sent more funds per renting household to census tracts with higher pre-pandemic eviction filing rates, higher poverty rates, higher shares of Black renters, higher shares of renting households with children, and higher shares of renting single mothers. Our results suggest that ERA was largely successful in reaching communities that were most likely to have the highest risk of eviction. We also document that ERA spending increased substantially around the expiration of the federal eviction moratorium and at a time when eviction filings were increasing, which may confound quasi-experimental analysis of ERA. |
| Keywords: | Eviction filings; Pandemic relief programs; Emergency rental assistance |
| JEL: | R28 H20 H52 |
| Date: | 2024–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-55 |
| By: | Baker, Jerome; Carlson, Nathan; Heuser, Katie; Strangeway, Rachel |
| Abstract: | Oxford Street is the western boundary of University of California, Berkeley campus and connects the university to downtown Berkeley and the BART station. Oxford for All is a vision developed by the UC Berkeley Department of City and Regional Planning Transportation Studio that envisions an Oxford Street that seeks to serve all users, regardless of ability or mode choice. To better understand the planning context and needs of the corridor’s residents, the project team conducted the following: Historical context research, Academic literature review, Review of relevant planning documents and plans, Interviews with professional and academic subject matter experts, Case studies of other urban university campuses, Review of planned developments, Pedestrian and cyclist counts, Community outreach event, Survey of businesses. This work revealed that Oxford Street does not serve all road users adequately. The street design prioritizes driving, with wide streets, narrow sidewalks, and poor facilities for pedestrians and bicyclists. The lack of character means the street is a psychological boundary between Berkeley’s downtown and campus. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2023–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt53g9g83t |
| By: | Richard K. Mansfield |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how spatial frictions that differ among heterogeneous workers and establishments shape the geographic and demographic incidence of alternative local labor demand shocks, with implications for the appropriate level of government at which to fund local economic initiatives. LEHD data featuring millions of job transitions facilitate estimation of a rich two-sided labor market assignment model. The model generates simulated forecasts of many alternative local demand shocks featuring different establishment compositions and local areas. Workers within 10 miles receive only 11.2% (6.6%) of nationwide welfare (employment) short-run gains, with at least 35.9% (62.0%) accruing to out-of-state workers, despite much larger per-worker impacts for the closest workers. Local incidence by demographic category is very sensitive to shock composition, but different shocks produce similar demographic incidence farther from the shock. Furthermore, the remaining heterogeneity in incidence at the state or national level can reverse patterns of heterogeneous demographic impacts at the local level. Overall, the results suggest that reduced-form approaches using distant locations as controls can produce accurate estimates of local shock impacts on local workers, but that the distribution of local impacts badly approximates shocks' statewide or national incidence. |
| JEL: | J23 J61 R23 R58 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32706 |
| By: | Price V. Fishback; Jessamyn Schaller; Evan J. Taylor |
| Abstract: | We examine racial discrimination in the New Deal by examining access to work relief. The Federal Government prohibited racial discrimination in work relief programs. However, eligibility was determined by local and state administrators. We estimate Black-white gaps in work relief access separately by county. The results show that about 40 percent of Blacks resided in counties with equal or better access than similar whites. Access for Black men was much worse in the South. We find that Black access was better in areas where Black and white workers were complementary and where more public and private resources were available. |
| JEL: | J08 J45 J78 N32 N42 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32681 |
| By: | Xavier Giroud; Ernest Liu; Holger Mueller |
| Abstract: | The vast majority of U.S. inventors work for firms that also have inventors and plants in other tech clusters. Using merged USPTO–U.S. Census Bureau plant-level data, we show that larger tech clusters not only make local inventors more productive but also raise the productivity of inventors and plants in other clusters, which are connected to the focal cluster through their parent firms' networks of innovating plants. Cross-cluster innovation spillovers do not depend on the physical distance between clusters, and plants cite disproportionately more patents from other firms in connected clusters, across large physical distances. To rationalize these findings, and to inform policy, we develop a tractable model of spatial innovation that features both within- and cross-cluster innovation spillovers. Based on our model, we derive a sufficient statistic for the wedge between the social and private returns to innovation in a given location. Taking the model to the data, we rank all U.S. tech clusters according to this wedge. While larger tech clusters exhibit a greater social-private innovation wedge, this is not because of local knowledge spillovers, but because they are well-connected to other clusters through firms' networks of innovating plants. In counterfactual exercises, we show that an increase in the interconnectedness of U.S. tech clusters raises the social-private innovation wedge in (almost) all locations, but especially in tech clusters that are large and well-connected to other clusters. |
| JEL: | G30 O30 R30 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32677 |
| By: | Farrell, Graham (University of Leeds); Lovelace, Robin; O'Hern, Steve |
| Abstract: | This study uses data from Operation Snap (OpSnap), the UK police’s national system to receive road users’ video evidence of road traffic offences. Data from one police force area for 39 months (January 2021 to March 2024) (N = 20, 364 records) is analysed. Half were submitted by vehicle drivers (49.8%), a third by cyclists (34.7%), 7.2% by pedestrians, 2.2% by horse riders, 0.2% by motorcyclists, and 5.8% were unknown. We estimate that, relative to road distance travelled, cyclists were 20 times more likely to submit video evidence than vehicle drivers. The most common offences overall were driving ‘without reasonable consideration to others’ or ‘without due care and attention’. Half (53.5%) of reported cases resulted in the recommended disposal of an educational course, % no further action 12.6% conditional offer, and 1.6% resulted in court appearance. A research agenda using OpSnap data is outlined that could emerge if national datasets are compiled and responsibly opened-up and made available for research and policy-making: data-driven research should identify hotspot locations and other correlates of dangerous and antisocial road use at regional, and local levels; research projects should investigate disposal-related decision-making, video quality, and the role of supporting evidence; offence concentration (recidivism, repeat submitters of evidence, spatial hotspots) and case progression including court cases should be explored with reference to new video evidence. We conclude that datasets derived from publicly-uploaded video submission portals have the potential to transform evidence-based policy and practice locally, nationally and internationally. |
| Date: | 2024–07–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:cgjmr |
| By: | Lusine Ivanov-Davtyan |
| Abstract: | How does exposure to a war outside the immediate conflict area influence the educational performance of pupils, and how does this collective impact differ from that of direct family exposure? To address these questions, I link individual-level victim data from the 2020 Armenian-Azerbaijani war with individual school records from periods before and after the conflict. Capitalizing on the lottery-based draft system of Armenian Army and using constructed individual-level data, I find that exposure to war-related casualties at the school level (collective affectedness) prompts a shift in performance towards subjects that increase options for migration and safer living conditions. This results in decreased proficiency in native language and history studies. In contrast, family-level affectedness shapes patriotism and group identity, leading to improved performance in cultural and homeland-related subjects. These findings demonstrate how war affects schooling trajectories, potentially leading to long-term economic effects even decades later. |
| Keywords: | Education, Schooling Performance, Localized War, Violent Conflict |
| JEL: | F51 I25 O12 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp784 |
| By: | Meriem Naimi Ait-Aoudia (Institute of Architecture and Urban Planning, Blida1 University); Samira Khettab (Institute of Architecture and Urban Planning, Blida1 University); Oumelkheir Boukratem (Institute of Architecture and Urban Planning, Blida1 University) |
| Abstract: | he COVID-19 pandemic advent has put the spotlight back on debates about the relationship between urban planning and health-related issues, prompting a certain amount of research works worldwide. This study set out to build an analysis grid for this relationship on the basis of a literature review and apply it to the case study. To this end, our work used two levels of bibliographical analysis: the first level focused on review of research papers, which helped identify three topics related to the consequences of coronavirus disease and subsequent restrictive measures on urban uses, namely public open space, mobility, and online uses. Our study considers these latter because of their impacts on urban use and, by ricochet, on urban planning and design. The next level based exclusively on original articles review, allowed more in-depth investigations, to break down these topics into sub-topics, and to define criteria for analyzing them, which mainly include use patterns and behavioral changes and perceptions. Drawing from the insights revealed by these studies, the present article endeavors to examine the Algerian case with the aim of nourishing the debate on the resilience of cities to health crises and suggesting better guidance for urban planning and design measures. |
| Keywords: | Algeria COVID-19 Pandemics Sustainable city Urban resilience Urban uses, Algeria, COVID-19, Pandemics, Sustainable city, Urban resilience, Urban uses, COVID-19 pandemics Urban resilience Sustainable city Urban uses Algeria, pandemics |
| Date: | 2024–03–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04629281 |
| By: | Philipp Ager (University of Mannheim, CEPR); Viktor Malein (Lund University) |
| Abstract: | The paper evaluates the long-run impact of charity nurseries for disadvantaged children in early 20th-century New York. Access to charity nurseries with kindergarten instruction raised children’s years of education and reduced their likelihood of working in low-skilled jobs later in life. Instead, exposed children were more likely to work in jobs requiring higher cognitive and language skills. The effects were strongest for children from the most disadvantaged immigrant groups at that time. Our findings suggest that kindergarten instruction in charity nurseries helped immigrant children better understand teachers’ instructions and learning materials which improved their economic outcomes in adulthood. |
| Keywords: | Age of Mass Migration, Charity Nurseries, Child Care, Disadvantaged Children, Kindergarten Instruction, New York City |
| JEL: | I21 I26 J13 J15 N31 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0263 |
| By: | Keith Finlay; Elizabeth Luh; Michael G. Mueller-Smith |
| Abstract: | The United States criminal justice system is characterized by substantial disparities in outcomes across racial and ethnic groups. Understanding these disparities requires accurate measures of race and ethnicity of people involved in the justice system. We document how race and ethnicity are recorded by administrative agents and how operational concerns limit corrections to misreported race and ethnicity. To understand the impacts of these administrative processes, this paper uses novel linkages between person-level microdata from the Criminal Justice Administrative Records System (CJARS) and race and ethnicity composites from U.S. Census Bureau census and administrative records, mostly composed of self-reported or family-reported race/ethnicity, to quantify mismeasurement of race and ethnicity in the justice system. We find that 17 percent of misdemeanor and felony defendants and 10 percent of prison inmates have an agency-recorded label that does not concord with the composite measure, largely driven by justice agencies poorly measuring people identified in Census Bureau data as Hispanic, Asian, Pacific Islander, or American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN). Using estimated correspondences between agency-recorded and the composite race and ethnicity, we reweight federal series on imprisonment rates and show that those series, which currently rely on small survey samples to impute racial and ethnic population shares, have substantially underestimated the incarceration rates of Whites, Blacks, and AIANs. |
| JEL: | J15 K42 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32657 |
| By: | Esser, Hartmut (University of Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | The question of the effects of ability tracking remains unresolved even after decades of research. This is also due to the fact that specific regulations for the stringency of implementing differentiation according to ability and achievement have not been taken into account. The issue is the conditionalization of the effects of ability tracking within differentiating systems. The question is analysed using the example of the German federal states: There are clear differences in the regulation of differentiation (binding nature of recommendations and/or stronger organizational control of schools) and with the "National Educational Panel Study" (NEPS) a data set is available that contains all the information necessary to identify the effects. Three sequentially related aspects of the effects of stringency are analyzed: Sorting and educational attainment, structuring of school classes and educational achievement in secondary school. For educational attainment, there was an increase in achievement at the end of elementary school and greater equality of achievement at the transition without an increase in social inequality. The structuring of school classes showed a decoupling of cognitive and social segregation. And for achievement in secondary school, was an increase in the effects of cognitive composition without an increase in the effects of social background or social segregation, especially in the lower performance areas. This is practically the opposite of the assumptions known from most international comparative studies, according to which strict differentiation does not improve achievement, but only reinforces the effects of social background. |
| Keywords: | ability tracking, educational achievement, educational inequality, school effects, German Federal States |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17167 |
| By: | Patrick Lehnert; Madison Dell; Uschi Backes-Gellner; Eric Bettinger |
| Abstract: | Despite worldwide expansion of higher education, the impact of higher education institutions on local economic activity is still poorly understood. We analyze the local economic effects of branch campus openings in Tennessee and Texas, two states representative of the underlying U.S. enrollment patterns. To overcome the lack of adequate data, we use a novel proxy for regional economic activity based on daytime satellite imagery. Applying different panel methods—traditional difference-in-differences (DD), heterogeneity-robust DD, and instrumental variables—we find positive effects. Independent data show an increase in college graduates and employment in the sectors aligned with programs offered at branch campuses. |
| JEL: | I23 I25 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32679 |
| By: | Michel Beine; Michel Bierlaire; Evangelos Paschalidis; Silvia Varotto; Andreas B. Vortisch |
| Abstract: | We address the question of the impact of a possible Trump reelection on the location choices of potential Mexican migrants. We use migration aspiration data from the Gallup World Poll Surveys which provide the preferred location choices of Mexican respondents before, during and after the Trump Presidency. We show that Trump presidency led to an increase in disapproval rates about the US leadership among Mexican respondents, which in turn led to a reduced level of attractiveness of the US location. Using a Cross-Nested Logit model that allows to account for the heterogeneity in the substitution patterns between alternative locations to the US, we simulate the impact of a possible reelection of Donald Trump based on different scenarios about these dis-approval rates. We find that such a reelection would lead to an increase in the number of stayers in Mexico but would also create heterogeneous immigration pressures from Mexico across potential foreign locations. In particular, countries such as Canada, the UK, Germany, Spain, and France would face significantly higher increases in Mexican immigration pressures. We also show that the reelection of Donald Trump would lower the skill content of Mexican potential immigrants in the US and would induce an opposite effect in destinations that are perceived as close substitutes. |
| Keywords: | location choice models, migration aspirations, Mexican immigrants, substitution effects |
| JEL: | C25 F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11195 |
| By: | Selim, Tarek |
| Abstract: | This research uses mapped urbanization, PESTEL analysis, Smart City projects, and socioeconomic impacts to analyze the MENA region’s outlook on smart mobility. Countries in the MENA region are implementing large-scale smart mobility projects to combat modern urbanization challenges such as traffic congestion, informality, and pollution. Smart mobility in MENA has the potential to solve many of the urbanization challenges facing the region as well as enhance the quality of life of its growing population. Yet the two critical factors of (a) political stability and (b) adequate financial resources are strong necessary conditions for positive longterm impact. With a forward-looking young population and vivid demographics of modern cultural development, many of the MENA countries are expected to pioneer in smart mobility systems in usage and longer-term co-production. Affordability, accessibility, and efficiently usable are production conditions for social acceptance of smart mobility systems in the MENA region, such that citizen self-interests should be aligned with country economic gains. Long term recommended strategies for smart mobility in the MENA region include (1) intensive development of electrified public transportation for mass transport, (2) expansion into uncovered geographical areas using AI monitoring systems, (3) smart mobility investments to be used as a catalyst for economic diversification away from non-renewable energy sources, and (4) smart mobility eco-friendly impacts to lead the region towards long term zero emissions. Finally, (5) a mega Arab World smart mobility railways network is highly recommended, connecting the Gulf countries to Egypt to the Maghreb region, which has the potential to accelerate the MENA region towards higher levels of livelihood and sustainability and enhance the world trade outlook at large. |
| Keywords: | Middle East and North Africa, Smart Mobility, Smart Cities, Urbanization, Future Outlook |
| JEL: | H44 L86 L91 O53 R42 |
| Date: | 2024–06–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121453 |
| By: | Philipp Ager (University of Mannheim, CEPR); Maja U. Pedersen (University of Southern Denmark); Paul Sharp (University of Southern Denmark, CAGE, CEPR); Xanthi Tsoukli (University of Bamberg) |
| Abstract: | This study provides a comprehensive understanding of the Great Fire’s effects on London’s economic geography. Our analysis reveals both continuity and change. There was a swift postfire recovery accompanied by some shift in economic activity towards the City of Westminster by 1690, with markets spreading outside the City, but financial services largely remaining inside. Analysis of London Hearth Tax records further illustrates a significant change in the wealth distribution, with wealthier households returning to fire-impacted areas, reshaping the city’s housing and social structure. |
| Keywords: | Great Fire of London, Economic Geography, Location of economic activity |
| JEL: | N23 N93 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0261 |
| By: | Kornfeld, Robert (US Bureau of Economic Analysis); Fraumeni, Barbara M. (Central University of Finance and Economics) |
| Abstract: | The recent debates on infrastructure spending have led to renewed interest in the measurement of infrastructure and its effects on growth and well-being. This paper updates estimates of one important type of infrastructure capital—highways and streets. We compare BEA's capital measures with more readily understood physical measures of road and lane miles, road quality and usage, and other measures from Highway Statistics (HS) data from FHWA. We also use the HS data and related research to disaggregate investment in highways and streets into more detailed types, such as new construction, repair and resurfacing, and bridge work, and apply separate depreciation rates to each type to produce updated estimates of net wealth stocks and depreciation. Relative to published BEA estimates, constant-price depreciation is revised up by about $9–$12 billion annually in recent years, and constant-price net stocks are revised down by about 22 percent. For the period from 2007 forward, net stocks per capita are flat in the published BEA estimates but decline slightly in the revised estimates. In addition, we update Fraumeni's (2007) estimates of productive stocks that are converted to wealth stocks to facilitate a comparison. These updated wealth estimates also show lower net stocks and higher depreciation than in the published BEA estimates. We hope this paper encourages discussion about how to measure infrastructure capital, particularly highways and streets, and its effects. |
| Keywords: | depreciation, infrastructure, highways, streets, capital stocks |
| JEL: | E01 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17156 |
| By: | Federico S. Mandelman; Yang Yu; Francesco Zanetti; Andrei Zlate |
| Abstract: | We document a steady decline in low-skilled immigration that began with the onset of the Great Recession in 2007, which was associated with labor shortages in low-skilled service occupations and a decline in the skill premium. Falling returns to high-skilled jobs coincided with a decline in the educational attainment of native-born workers. We develop and estimate a stochastic growth model with endogenous immigration and training to account for these facts and study macroeconomic performance and welfare. Lower immigration leads to higher wages for low-skilled workers and higher consumer prices. Importantly, the decline in the skill premium discourages the training of native workers, persistently reducing aggregate productivity and welfare. Stimulus policies during the COVID-19 pandemic, amid a widespread shortage of low-skilled immigrant labor, exacerbated the rise in consumer prices and reduced welfare. We show that the 2021-2023 immigration surge helped to partially alleviate existing labor shortages and restore welfare. |
| Keywords: | immigration, skill premium, task upgrading, heterogeneous workers |
| JEL: | F16 F22 F41 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11202 |
| By: | Rene A. Iwo; Elizabeth Frankenberg; Cecep Sumantri; Duncan Thomas |
| Abstract: | The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was an extremely destructive event in Aceh, Indonesia, killing over 160, 000 people and destroying infrastructure, homes, and livelihoods over miles of coastline. In its immediate aftermath, affected populations faced a daunting array of challenges. At the population level, questions of how the disaster affected children’s and parents’ aspirations for education and whether it permanently disrupted schooling progression are critical in understanding how shocks affect human capital in the short and long term. We use longitudinal data from the Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery (STAR) to examine how disaster exposure affects educational aspirations and eventual attainment. We find that damage to one’s community depresses aspirations in the short term but that this weakens with time. With respect to educational attainment 15 years after the event, children’s aspirations, parents’ education, and family socioeconomic status are more important determinants of whether children complete high school and go on to tertiary schooling than disaster exposure. While these results likely reflect, at least in part, the successful post-tsunami reconstruction program, they also establish enormous resilience among survivors who bore the brunt of the tsunami. |
| JEL: | I20 O12 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32702 |
| By: | Maria Petrova; Gregor Schubert; Bledi Taska; Pinar Yildirim |
| Abstract: | Career opportunities and expectations shape people’s decisions and can diminish over time. In this paper, we study the career implications of automation and robotization using a novel data set of resumes from approximately 16 million individuals from the United States. We calculate the lifetime "career value" of various occupations, combining (1) the likelihood of future transitions to other occupations, and (2) the earning potential of these occupations. We first document a downward trend in the growth of career values in the U.S. between 2000 and 2016. While wage growth slows down over this time period, the decline in the average career value growth is mainly due to reduced upward occupational mobility. We find that robotization contributes to the decline of average local labor market career values. One additional robot per 1000 workers decreased the average local market career value by $3.9K between 2004 and 2008 and by $2.48K between 2008 and 2016, corresponding to 1.7% and 1.1% of the average career values from the year 2000. In commuting zones that have been more exposed to robots, the average career value has declined further between 2000 and 2016. This decline was more pronounced for low-skilled individuals, with a substantial part of the decline coming from their reduced upward mobility. We document that other sources of mobility mitigate the negative effects of automation on career values. We also show that the changes in career values are predictive of investment in long-term outcomes, such as investment into schooling and housing, and voting for a populist candidate, as proxied by the vote share of Trump in 2016. We also find further evidence that automation affected both the demand side and supply side of politics. |
| JEL: | J01 L6 M0 M20 M29 M55 O14 O3 P0 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32655 |
| By: | Antonio Ciccone; Jan Nimczik |
| Abstract: | The scale effects that have become an integral part of growth theory imply that productivity should be increasing in population size. We use newly digitized data to estimate the relation between GDP per worker and refugee settlements in West Germany following the arrival of 8 million WWII refugees—more than 15% of the West German population in 1949. Our approach builds on the county-level analysis of the relation between GDP per capita growth and refugee settlements in Peters (2022). As we find that his estimates do not reflect the effect on GDP per capita, we also provide corrected per-capita estimates. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth, scale effects, productivity, population shocks, immigration |
| JEL: | O1 O4 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_579 |
| By: | Pedro Dal Bó; Carolina Lopez |
| Abstract: | This study uses individual-level census data from Argentina to examine the socioeconomic disparities between Native and non-Native people. Native people fare worse across a variety of indicators, including housing, education, employment, and health. On average, the observed disparities amount to 12 percent of the standard deviation and persist even after controlling for factors such as geographic location. Furthermore, there are differences in the intergenerational transmission of education between Natives and non-Natives: for each level of education of the parents, the children of Natives have, on average, fewer years of education than the children of non-Natives. Finally, the study also reveals large differences between Native groups: while some achieve average outcomes that surpass those of the non-Native population, others significantly lag behind. Notably, these differences are correlated with a characteristic of their pre-Columbian economy: the practice of agriculture. |
| JEL: | I3 J15 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32704 |
| By: | Gaffney, Edward (Central Bank of Ireland); McCann, Fergal (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | A diverse set of entity types operate in the Irish mortgage market. We explore the role of these various bank and non-bank entities in mortgage refinancing patterns from 2017, looking at both from whom mortgage borrowers switch, and to whom they switch, using rich credit registry data. Looking at where borrowers switch to, we show that non-bank lenders are a particularly cyclical, interest-rate-sensitive source of financing, consistently increasing their share of mortgage switchers from 2019 to the turning point of the interest rate cycle in mid-2022, followed by a collapse in switching market share in late 2022 and 2023. On the question of from whom mortgage switchers originate, we highlight that mortgage customers at non-lending non-bank firms had a structurally lower propensity to switch than customers of banks over the period 2017 to 2023. However, higher-credit quality portfolios at these servicers have had similar rates of switching to those at retail banks, while those with higher credit risk are the groups that have had lowest propensity to switch. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:fsnote:5/fs/24 |
| By: | Dahl, Gordon B.; Felfe, Christina; Frijters, Paul; Rainer, Helmut |
| Abstract: | What happens when immigrant girls are given increased opportunities to integrate into the workplace and society, but their parents value more traditional cultural outcomes? We answer this question in the context of a reform which granted automatic birthright citizenship to eligible immigrant children born in Germany after 1 January 2000. Using survey data, we collected from students in 57 schools and comparing those born in the months before vs. after the reform, we find the introduction of birthright citizenship lowers measures of life satisfaction and self-esteem for immigrant girls by 0.32 and 0.25 standard deviations, respectively. This is especially true for Muslims, where parents are likely to prefer more traditional cultural outcomes than their daughters. Moreover, we find that Muslim girls granted birthright citizenship are less integrated into German society: they are both more socially isolated and less likely to self-identify as German. Exploring mechanisms for these unintended drops in well-being and assimilation, we find that immigrant Muslim parents invest less in their daughters’ schooling and that these daughters receive worse grades in school if they are born after the reform. Parents are also less likely to speak German with these daughters. Consistent with a rise in intra-family conflict, birthright citizenship results in disillusionment where immigrant Muslim girls believe their chances of achieving their educational goals are lower and the perceived odds of having to forgo a career for a family rise. In contrast, immigrant boys experience, if anything, an improvement in well-being, integration, and schooling outcomes. Taken together, the findings point towards immigrant girls being pushed by parents to conform to a role within traditional culture, whereas boys are allowed to take advantage of the opportunities that come with citizenship. To explain these findings, we construct a simple game-theoretic model which builds on Akerlof and Kranton (2000), where identity-concerned parents constrain their daughter’s choices, and hence lower their daughter’s well-being, when faced with the threat of integration. Alternative models can explain some of the findings in isolation. |
| Keywords: | cultural identity; immigrant assimilation; intergenerational conflict |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2022–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124064 |
| By: | Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes; Monica Deza; Genti Kostandini; Tianyuan Luo |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of granting access to driver licenses to undocumented immigrants on their offspring’s access to early childhood education (ECE). Using individual-level data from the ACS, we find that granting driving privileges to undocumented immigrants leads to a 6% increase in ECE attendance among Hispanic children with likely undocumented parents. We explore potential mechanisms and find that these laws enhance mobility, driving autonomy, and English proficiency among likely undocumented immigrants. These laws also increase hourly wages among likely undocumented mothers, which may increase their bargaining power and financial resources. The findings highlight the positive externalities of extending driving privileges to undocumented immigrants. |
| JEL: | I24 J15 J6 J68 K37 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32723 |
| By: | Esther Duflo; Pascaline Dupas; Elizabeth Spelke; Mark P. Walsh |
| Abstract: | We provide experimental evidence on the intergenerational impacts of secondary education subsidies in a low-income context, leveraging a randomized controlled trial and 15-year longitudinal follow-up. For young women, receiving a scholarship for secondary school delays childbearing and marriage, and reduces unwanted pregnancies. Female scholarship recipients are more likely to marry a partner with tertiary education and their children have better early childhood development outcomes. In particular, we document a 45% reduction in under-three mortality as well as cognitive development gains of 0.25 standard deviations of test scores once children are of school age. The primary mechanism seems to be that more-educated caregivers have the knowledge and skills to safeguard their children’s health and stimulate their cognitive development. In contrast, we find no evidence of a positive impact for the children of male scholarship recipients, who tend to marry less educated partners. Together, these results suggest a key role for maternal education in child outcomes. We also estimate the cost-benefit ratio for secondary school scholarships and find that the impact on child survival alone is sufficient to make them a highly cost-effective investment. |
| JEL: | I26 J13 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32742 |
| By: | Belloc, Ignacio |
| Abstract: | This paper studies convergence in family house prices across 364 counties in the US from 1975 to 2022. We use the club convergence test to contrast the null hypothesis of full convergence, and if it is rejected, to identify endogenously convergence clubs that follow the same convergence pattern. We reject the hypothesis of absolute convergence and identify six different convergence clubs. We also explore some determinants that could explain the formation of clubs, and find that certain weather conditions, income level and education variables are correlated with the final subgroups identified by the club convergence test. Specifically, clubs with low family house price indexes are characterized by a lower income levels, a higher percentage of the population with college degrees, and a greater frequency of extreme weather conditions over the last two decades, such as extreme hot and cold days. In the current emergency context where these extreme weather conditions are becoming more frequent, and climate models continue to predict that their importance will continue increasing, these results are important to understand the impacts of climate change on family housing markets and adopt suitable mitigation policies. |
| Keywords: | Family house prices; convergence clubs; US counties; income; education; weather |
| JEL: | D10 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121487 |
| By: | Jésus Fernández-Villaverde; Tomohide Mineyama; Dongho Song; Jesús Fernández-Villaverde |
| Abstract: | After decades of rising global economic integration, the world economy is now fragmenting. To measure this phenomenon, we introduce an index of geopolitical fragmentation derived from various empirical indicators. This index is developed using a flexible dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility. We then employ structural vector autoregressions and local projections to assess the causal effects of changes in fragmentation. Our analysis demonstrates that increased fragmentation negatively impacts the global economy, with emerging economies suffering more than advanced ones. Notably, we document a key asymmetry: fragmentation has an immediate negative effect, while the benefits of reduced fragmentation unfold gradually. A sectoral analysis within OECD economies reveals that industries closely linked to global markets —such as manufacturing, construction, finance, and wholesale and retail trade— are adversely affected. Finally, we examine the interaction between fragmentation and the economic dynamics of regional economic blocs, highlighting significant differences in the impacts across various geopolitical blocs. |
| Keywords: | dynamic factor model, causality, geopolitical fragmentation, fragmentation index |
| JEL: | C11 C33 E00 F01 F20 F40 F60 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11192 |
| By: | Di Feng; Yun Liu |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a novel measurement of informational size to school choice problems, which inherits its ideas from Mount and Reiter (1974). This concept measures a matching mechanism's information size by counting the maximal relevant preference and priority rankings to secure a certain pairwise assignment of a student to a school across all possible matching problems. Our analysis uncovers two key insights. First, the three prominent strategy-proof matching mechanisms, the deferred acceptance (DA) mechanism, the top trading cycles (TTC) mechanism, and the serial dictatorship (SD) mechanism, is (strictly) less informative than the non-strategy-proof immediate acceptance (IA) mechanism. This result highlights a previously omitted advantage of IA in term of its information demand, which partially explain the its popularity in real-world matching problems especially when acquiring information is both pecuniarily and cognitively costly. Second, when the matching problem contains at least four students, the TTC demands less information compared to the DA to implement a desired allocation. The issue of comparison between TTC and DA has puzzled researchers both in theory (Gonczarowski and Thomas, 2023) and in experiment (Hakimov and Kubler, 2021). Our result responds to this issue from an informational perspective: in experiments with relatively fewer students, agents tend to prefer DA over TTC as DA requires fewer information to secure one's allocation in all problems (Guillen and Veszteg, 2021), while the opposite is true when the market size increases (Pais et al., 2011). Among others, our informational size concept offers a new perspective to understand the differences in auditability (Grigoryan and Moller, 2024), manipulation vulnerability (Pathak and Sonmez, 2013), and privacy protection (Haupt and Hitzig, 2022), among some commonly used matching mechanisms. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2407.11273 |
| By: | Ivanov, Ivan T.; Zimmermann, Tom |
| Abstract: | We study the determinants of local governments' reliance on bank loans using granular data from the Federal Reserve. Governments that are larger, riskier, rely on historically stable revenue sources, or have higher spending relative to revenues are more likely to borrow from banks. Declines in revenues, reductions in bond market access, and relationships with financial advisers and underwriters all strongly predict higher bank loan reliance. While resemblance between bank loans and bonds is limited, loans afford governments significant financial flexibility not otherwise available in the municipal bond market. The frequent loan renegotiation and credit line use are both highly responsive to changes in credit quality, thereby tailoring debt contracts to changes in government fundamentals. The largest entities find this flexibility most useful with nearly 45% of entities in the top revenue quintile obtaining a bank loan by 2017. |
| Keywords: | local government borrowing, debt heterogeneity, fiscal shocks |
| JEL: | H74 G21 G32 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:300681 |
| By: | Ekoh, Susan |
| Abstract: | Cities are increasingly affected by the changing climate and a corresponding mobility and immobility of people. Hence, localising global and national frameworks and policies on climate im/mobility at the city level is increasingly important. This discussion paper examines how urban governance in two West African cities, Accra and Dakar, addresses climate im/mobility, focusing on the role of power in shaping urban climate governance processes. The study applies a qualitative approach, involving a review of climate action plans for both cities and interviews with key informants in the field, to investigate the presence or absence of climate im/mobility considerations in urban governance and the power dynamics influencing these processes. Results show that diverse interests of stakeholders significantly influence urban climate governance and its linkages to im/mobility. Power is observed in the interests of involved actors, in the limited financial capacity of both cities, lack of transferred competence and limited knowledge on climate im/mobility. The study recommends better vertical coordination, allocation of competencies to city authorities, equitable policy development, enhanced knowledge sharing, and the addressing of data gaps to improve urban responses to climate-induced mobility challenges. These findings are relevant for stakeholders and policy-makers working to integrate climate im/mobility into urban governance frameworks. |
| Keywords: | multi-level governance, climate im/mobility, cities, power, climate action |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:300856 |
| By: | Simon Baumgartinger-Seiringer (Department of Geography and Regional Research, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria); Balazs Pager (Department of Geography and Regional Research, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria); Michaela Trippl (Department of Geography and Regional Research, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria) |
| Abstract: | This article focuses on regions in industrial transitions (RITs) in the context of climate change mitigation and their varying paths towards sustainability, drawing on rich data from 11 regions in 9 countries in the Danube area in Europe. Inspired by recent work on green regional vulnerability, challenge-oriented regional innovation systems and transformative resilience, the article conceptualizes regional industrial transition pathways as the outcome of a complex interplay between distinct geographies of (1) vulnerability to, (2) preparedness for, and (3) responsiveness to transition pressures. Empirically, the article employs a mixed-method approach, combining quantitative analyses of regional structural conditions (focusing on vulnerability and preparedness) with qualitative investigations of agency of regional and non-regional actors (focusing on responsiveness). In doing so, the article unravels diverse pathways that regions adopt to navigate industrial transitions. We contend that these insights hold important implications for the design of tailor-made regional industrial transition strategies. |
| Keywords: | Regions in industrial transitions, vulnerability, preparedness, responsiveness, transformative resilience |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoe:wpaper:2403 |
| By: | Andrew F. Haughwout; Donghoon Lee; Daniel Mangrum; Joelle Scally; Wilbert Van der Klaauw |
| Abstract: | Mortgage balances, the largest component of U.S. household debt, grew by only $77 billion (0.6 percent) in the second quarter of 2024, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data. This modest increase reflects a substantial slowdown in mortgage origination; only $374 billion was originated during the second quarter, compared to an average of about $1 trillion per quarter between 2021 and 2022. Meanwhile, after nearly thirteen years of decline, balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) have begun to rebound, gaining 20 percent since bottoming out at the end of 2021. In this post, we consider the factors behind this upswing, finding that HELOCs have likely become an attractive alternative to cash-out refinancings amid higher interest rates. |
| Keywords: | Consumer Credit Panel (CCP); HELOC; Home equity lines of credit |
| JEL: | D11 |
| Date: | 2024–08–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:98633 |
| By: | Dang, Hai-Anh (World Bank); Do, Minh N.N. (National Economics University Vietnam); Nguyen, Cuong Viet (National Economics University Vietnam) |
| Abstract: | Very few studies have examined the impacts of both climate change and air pollution on student education outcomes, particularly in a developing country setting. Analyzing a rich database consisting of household and school surveys, test scores, and temperature and air pollution data over the past decade for Viet Nam, we find that a 1 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentration in the month preceding exams leads to 0.015 and 0.010 standard deviation decreases in math and reading scores, respectively. We also find some indicative evidence of stronger impacts of air pollution for younger, primary school students who reside in urban areas and in districts with higher temperatures. While we find some mixed effects of temperature, we do not find significant effects on students' test scores for temperature extremes and air pollution over the past 12 months. Our findings offer policy-relevant inputs for the country's ongoing efforts to fight air pollution. |
| Keywords: | air pollution, climate change, weather extremes, education, Viet Nam |
| JEL: | O12 I10 Q53 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17160 |
| By: | Berninger, Marc; Bossong, Paul; Schiereck, Dirk; Steinhardt, Marcel |
| Abstract: | Bond issues often result in negative revaluations of the market value of equity. These market reactions are usually explained by negative signals and asymmetric information about the use of the proceeds. In industries with rather transparent investment opportunities these arguments are not applicable and we expect to find no negative revaluations. Consequently, analysing the stock price reactions to 2299 bond issues by real estate companies between 1996 and 2019, we observe none to positive reactions on the announcement of an upcoming bond issue. The findings underpin the necessity for controlling of industry effects in empirical studies on capital structure decisions. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:149020 |
| By: | Chen, Angie; Romero, Sandra; Zhuang, Winnie |
| Abstract: | The Link21 Program includes a new train crossing under the San Francisco Bay, which will improve connectivity between the Peninsula/Downtown San Francisco and the East Bay, as well as improve service frequency and mitigate congestion across the Bay Bridge. Six concepts have been developed for Link21, two of which involve a BART transfer station in the Jack London District. The scope of our project involves an existing conditions analysis and plans/policies review prior to conducting a BART station siting process for a potential Jack London BART station. Jack London is one of Oakland’s oldest business districts and is located south of Downtown Oakland, bisected from the city core by Interstate 980 and Interstate 880 overhead. Jack London’s position by the Oakland Estuary waterfront positions itself as a hub for port/industrial activities, commuter ferry passengers, intercity rail (Amtrak) passengers, and tourism. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2023–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt7qw2b8q6 |
| By: | Raj Chetty; Will S. Dobbie; Benjamin Goldman; Sonya Porter; Crystal Yang |
| Abstract: | We show that intergenerational mobility changed rapidly by race and class in recent decades and use these trends to study the causal mechanisms underlying changes in economic mobility. For white children in the U.S. born between 1978 and 1992, earnings increased for children from high-income families but decreased for children from low-income families, increasing earnings gaps by parental income (“class”) by 30%. Earnings increased for Black children at all parental income levels, reducing white- Black earnings gaps for children from low-income families by 30%. Class gaps grew and race gaps shrank similarly for non-monetary outcomes such as educational attainment, standardized test scores, and mortality rates. Using a quasi-experimental design, we show that the divergent trends in economic mobility were caused by differential changes in childhood environments, as proxied by parental employment rates, within local communities defined by race, class, and childhood county. Outcomes improve across birth cohorts for children who grow up in communities with increasing parental employment rates, with larger effects for children who move to such communities at younger ages. Children’s outcomes are most strongly related to the parental employment rates of peers they are more likely to interact with, such as those in their own birth cohort, suggesting that the relationship between children’s outcomes and parental employment rates is mediated by social interaction. Our findings imply that community-level changes in one generation can propagate to the next generation and thereby generate rapid changes in economic mobility. |
| JEL: | H0 J0 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32697 |
| By: | Jeffrey T. Denning; Lesley J. Turner |
| Abstract: | This paper documents several facts about graduate program graduation rates using administrative data covering public and nonprofit graduate students in Texas. Despite conventional wisdom that most graduate students complete their programs, only 58 percent of who started their program in 2004 graduated within 6 years. Between the 2004 and 2013 entering cohorts, graduate student completion rates grew by 10 percentage points. Graduation rates vary widely by field of study--ranging from an average of 81 percent for law programs to 53 percent for education programs. We also find large differences in graduation rates across institutions. On average, 72 percent of students who entered programs in flagship public universities graduated in 6 years compared to only 57 percent of those who entered programs in non-research intensive (non-R1) institutions. Graduate students who do not complete may face negative consequences due to lower average earnings and substantial levels of student debt. |
| JEL: | I20 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32749 |
| By: | Ioannis Tikoudis; Andrea Papu Carrone; Rose Mba Mebiame; Nicolina Lamhauge; Katherine Hassett; Olof Bystrom |
| Abstract: | This paper offers new insights on household choices related to transport, based on data from the third OECD Survey on Environmental Policies and Individual Behaviour Change (EPIC). The analysis explores the role of key factors determining the choice of fuel type in vehicles and the choice of transport mode in trips. The study uses choice experiment data to estimate the importance of key drivers of electric vehicle purchase decisions and to project future adoption rates of electric vehicles. Results show that income, location and environmental awareness play important roles in the choice of whether to own a vehicle, and its fuel type. Convenient access to charging, such as at home or workplace, can significantly increase the likelihood of choosing an electric vehicle. |
| Keywords: | car ownership, electric vehicle adoption, EV subsidies, fuel type choice, household behaviour, mode choice, range anxiety, recharging infrastructure |
| JEL: | C25 D12 D91 Q54 R40 |
| Date: | 2024–07–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:246-en |
| By: | Christian Vedel (University of Southern Denmark) |
| Abstract: | Is geography destiny? What is the role of first-nature geography in determining prosperity? This paper estimates the effect of randomly removing and introducing favorable first-nature geography to a specific region using a difference in difference design. In 1825 a storm created a new natural navigable waterway, bringing trade and prosperity to the otherwise relatively isolated northwestern Denmark. 700 years prior, the same event happened in reverse, when a previous channel closed up between 1086 and 1208. The elasticity of geography-induced market access is estimated to be 1.6, corresponding to 26.7 percent population growth within a generation of the event. Demonstrated mechanisms include trade, fertility, fishing, and the rise of manufacturing. The central finding is replicated in reverse in a register of dated archaeological sites. The 1086-1208 closing caused fewer buildings and sites containing coins. The general insight is the same: First-nature geography determines the levels and location of prosperity. |
| Keywords: | First-nature, Trade, Geography, Infrastructure, Natural Experiment |
| JEL: | N01 N73 O18 R1 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0262 |
| By: | Gabriella Conti (University College London); Sören Kliem (Institute for Applied Science Jena); Malte Sandner (Technical University Nürnberg) |
| Abstract: | We study the impacts of a prenatal and infancy home visiting program targeting disadvantaged families on mental health outcomes, assessed through diagnostic interviews. The program significantly reduced the prevalence of mental health conditions for both mothers and children, measured at primary-school age, and broke the intergenerational association of these conditions. The impacts are predominantly associated with a particular delivery model, wherein a single home visitor interacts with the family, as opposed to a model involving two home visitors. |
| Keywords: | diagnostic interviews |
| JEL: | I12 J21 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2024-014 |
| By: | Richard Audoly; Miles Guerin; Giorgio Topa; Roshie Xing |
| Abstract: | Has labor demand changed since the COVID-19 pandemic? In this post, we leverage detailed data on the universe of U.S. online job listings to study the dynamics of labor demand pre- and post-COVID. We find that there has been a significant shift in listings out of the central cities and into the “fringe” portion of large metro areas, smaller metro areas, and rural areas. We also find a substantial decline in job listings in computer and mathematical and business and financial operations occupations, and a corresponding increase in job openings in sales, office and administrative support, food preparation, and especially healthcare occupations. These patterns (by geography and by occupation) are interconnected: the biggest declines in job listings by occupation occurred in the largest and densest geographies, and the strongest increases in job listings by occupation occurred in the smaller and less populated geographies. |
| Keywords: | labor demand; COVID; job postings |
| JEL: | J23 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:98634 |
| By: | López Bóo, Florencia (Inter-American Development Bank); de la Paz Ferro, Maria (Inter-American Development Bank); Carneiro, Pedro (University College London) |
| Abstract: | Delivering early childhood programs at scale is a major policy challenge. One way to do so is by using existing public infrastructure. This paper experimentally assesses the short-term impacts of a new government home visiting program integrated into health care services. The program changed the allocation of time for community health workers, asking them to carry out early childhood development-related tasks. We find that access to the program has a positive but modest impact on home environment quality and no impact on child development nor on children's health status. Our results point to the importance of workload, supervision and buy-in from delivery actors to enhance fidelity of interventions. |
| Keywords: | early childhood, parenting |
| JEL: | J10 I10 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17130 |