|
on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Kristian S. Blickle; Evan Perry; João A. C. Santos |
| Abstract: | Using unique nationwide property-level mortgage, flood risk, and flood map data, we analyze whether lenders respond to flood risk that is not captured in FEMA flood maps. We find that lenders are less willing to originate mortgages and charge higher rates for lower LTV loans that face “un-mapped” flood risk. This effect is weaker for high income applicants, as well as non-banks and small local banks. However, we find evidence that non-banks and local banks are more likely to securitize/sell mortgages to borrowers prone to flood risk. Taken together, our results are indicative that mortgage lenders are aware of flood risk outside FEMA’s identified flood zones. |
| Keywords: | flood risk; flood maps; bank lending; climate change; natural disasters; Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data; FEMA; credit constraints |
| JEL: | G20 G23 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:98187&r= |
| By: | Felix Aidala; Andrew F. Haughwout; Benjamin Hyman; Jason Somerville; Wilbert Van der Klaauw |
| Abstract: | The U.S. housing market has had a tumultuous few years. After falling to record lows during the pandemic, the average 30-year mortgage rate rapidly increased in 2022 and 2023 and now hovers near a two-decade high of 7.2 percent. For those that locked in a low mortgage rate prior to 2022, this steep increase has significantly increased the cost of moving, as taking out a mortgage at current rates would potentially increase their monthly housing payment by hundreds or thousands of dollars, even if the amount they borrowed remained unchanged. As shown by Ferreira et al. (2011), this lock-in effect has the potential to reduce geographic mobility and turnover in the housing market and has gained the attention of Federal Reserve leaders. In this post, we utilize special questions from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s 2023 and 2024 SCE Housing Surveys to estimate the extent to which mortgage rate lock-in is suppressing U.S. household’s moving plans. |
| Keywords: | mortgage rates; lock in; mobility |
| JEL: | R2 R3 |
| Date: | 2024–05–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:98183&r= |
| By: | Maysen Yen |
| Abstract: | Public transit has often been proposed as a solution to the spatial mismatch hypothesis but the link between public transit accessibility and employment has not been firmly established in the literature. Los Angeles provides an interesting case study – as the city has transformed from zero rail infrastructure before the 1990s to a large network consisting of subway, light rail, and bus rapid transit servicing diverse neighborhoods. I use confidential panel data from the American Community Survey, treating route placement as endogenous, which is then instrumented by the distance from the centroid of each tract in LA to a hypothetical Metro route. Overall, I find proximity to Metro stations increases employment for residents, which is robust to using both a binary and continuous measure of distance. Additionally, I find evidence that increased job density in neighborhoods near new transit stations is contributing to the employment increase. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:24-22&r= |
| By: | Angel Espinoza E. |
| Abstract: | Improving public transport infrastructure changes local market conditions. In this paper, I examine the impact of the construction and operation of "Metrobus", Mexico City's Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system on consumer prices in chain stores, street vendors, and small family-owned (mom and pop) stores. I do so through a panel event study design. I consider the construction and operation of BRT as two different phenomena; while the former is associated to street closures, the latter reduces transportation costs. I show that only prices in mom and pop stores respond to changes in local market conditions produced by the introduction of BRT. For these businesses, construction pressures prices downwards; in contrast, operation is associated with partial price recoveries. I cannot reject a null effect in prices from chain stores or street vendors. |
| Keywords: | Public Transportation;Local Markets;Price Formation |
| JEL: | L11 L92 R12 R42 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2024-02&r= |
| By: | Sean Lewis-Faupel; Nicholas Tenev |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates gaps in access to and the cost of housing credit by race and ethnicity using the near universe of U.S. mortgage applications. Our data contain borrower creditworthiness variables that have historically been absent from industry-wide application data and that are likely to affect application approval and loan pricing. We find large unconditional disparities in approval and pricing between racial and ethnic groups. After conditioning on key elements of observable borrower creditworthiness, these disparities are smaller but remain economically meaningful. Sensitivity analysis indicates that omitted factors as predictive of approval/pricing and race/ethnicity as credit score can explain some of the pricing disparities but cannot explain the approval disparities. Taken together, our results suggest that credit score, income, and down payment requirements significantly contribute to disparities in mortgage access and affordability but that other systemic barriers are also responsible for a large share of disparate outcomes in the mortgage market. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2405.00895&r= |
| By: | Marco Bardoscia (Bank of England.); Adrian Carro (Banco de España.); Marc Hinterschweiger (Bank of England.); Mauro Napoletano (Université Côte D’Azur, CNRS, GREDEG.); Lilit Popoyan (Queen Mary University of London.); Andrea Roventini (Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna.); Arzu Uluc (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | We develop a macroeconomic agent-based model to study the joint impact of borrower- and lender-based prudential policies on the housing and credit markets and the economy more widely. We perform three experiments: (i) an increase of total capital requirements; (ii) an introduction of a loan-to-income (LTI) cap on mortgages to owner-occupiers; and (iii) a joint introduction of both experiments at the same time. Our results suggest that tightening capital requirements leads to a sharp decrease in commercial and mortgage lending, and housing transactions. When the LTI cap is in place, house prices fall sharply relative to income, and the homeownership rate decreases. When both policy instruments are combined, we find that housing transactions and prices drop. Both policies have a positive impact on real GDP and unemployment, while there is no material impact on inflation and the real interest rate. |
| Keywords: | Prudential policies; Housing market; Macroeconomy; Agent-based models. |
| JEL: | C63 D1 D31 E58 G21 G28 R2 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgs:wpaper:118&r= |
| By: | Marta Cota; Ante Sterc |
| Abstract: | Are households with low financial skills disadvantaged in the mortgage market? Using stochastic record linking, we construct a unique U.S. dataset encompassing a rich set of mortgage details and borrowers’ characteristics, including their objective financial literacy measure. We find that households with low financial literacy are up to 4% more likely to search less and lock in at 15-20 b.p. higher rates. Upon origination, unskilled borrowers face a 35-45% higher mortgage delinquency and end up with a 30% lower likelihood of refinancing. Overall, for a $100, 000 loan, the potential losses from low financial literacy are more than $9, 329 over the mortgage duration. To understand how financial education, more accessible mortgages, or mortgage rate changes affect households with low financial literacy, we formulate and calibrate a mortgage search model with heterogeneous search frictions and endogenous financial skills. Our model estimates show that search intensity and financial skill variations contribute to 55% and 10% of mortgage rate variations, respectively. We find that i) more accessible mortgages lead to a higher delinquency risk among low-skilled households, ii) financial education mitigates the adverse effects of increased accessibility, and iii) low mortgage rates favor high-skilled homeowners and, by reinforcing refinancing activity, deepen consumption differences across different financial skill levels. |
| Keywords: | mortgage refinancing, mortgage search, financial skills, financial education, consumption inequality |
| JEL: | E21 G51 G53 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp780&r= |
| By: | Zhi-Chun Li; De-Ping Yu; André de Palma (CY Cergy Paris Université, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | We propose an analytical solvable model for household residential location choice in a linear monocentric city corridor with bottleneck congestion. Households are heterogeneous in terms of their income. The bottleneck is located between central downtown and adjacent suburb. The urban equilibrium is formulated as the solution of differential equations. We analytically explore the distributional effects of bottleneck capacity expansion on households and the bottleneck capacity investment issues under no toll and first-best and second-best tolls. The results show that the benefits of different-income households from bottleneck capacity expansion change with toll schemes. Specifically, under the no toll and first-best toll, those who gain most are the mid-income households residing at the bottleneck and in a suburban location (close to the bottleneck) respectively, whereas those who gain least are the poorest or richest households. Under the second-best toll, there are two possible cases: the poorest households gain most while the richest households gain least, or the mid-income households residing at the bottleneck gain most while the richest or poorest households gain least. With constant return to scale for capacity investment, self-financing principle still holds for the first-best and second-best tolling in the urban spatial context. Ignoring the changes in urban spatial structure due to household relocation may cause overinvestment or underinvestment in optimal bottleneck capacity under the no toll, but definitely underinvestment under the first-best and second-best tolls. |
| Keywords: | Bottleneck congestion; urban spatial structure; heterogeneous households; capacity expansion; distributional effect; congestion tolling; self-financing |
| JEL: | R13 R14 R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2024-04&r= |
| By: | Justin Contat (Federal Housing Finance Agency); William M. Doerner (Federal Housing Finance Agency); Robert N. Renner (Federal Housing Finance Agency); Malcolm J. Rogers (Federal Housing Finance Agency) |
| Abstract: | Natural disasters can disrupt housing markets, causing destruction to communities and distress to economic activity. To estimate the effects of disasters on home prices, publicly-available data on property damages are often used to classify "treated" properties. However, by design these data lack precise geospatial information, leading to measurement error in the treatment variable as aggregate measures must be used. We leverage leading difference-in-differences and synthetic control methodologies across various treatments and levels of geography to measure price effects with such data following Hurricane Ian's unexpected landfall in southwest Florida during September 2022, coinciding with the state's initial recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Empirical results suggest positive, time-varying price effects, though we place caveats on these results as there may be many mechanisms underway; our results should be interpreted as descriptive correlations and not causal effects for various reasons. Our main contribution is methodological, highlighting the importance of robustness checks, functional form, statistical techniques, and testing across different samples. Additionally, quicker access to high quality public data could enhance quantitatively-informed conversations on natural disaster effects. |
| Keywords: | causal inference, hurricane, model selection, natural experiment, real estate valuation |
| JEL: | C52 Q54 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hfa:wpaper:24-04&r= |
| By: | Vidar Christiansen; Odd E. Nygård |
| Abstract: | The paper discusses the tax treatment of commuting where wages and housing cost vary across locations. An income tax distorts the locational choices of agents, who dislike commuting and have preferences for place of residence Wages, housing cost and commuting cost determine how subsidising or taxing commuting affects behaviour and social efficiency. A subsidy encourages commuting and induces agents to choose a more favourable living place. The analysis clarifies the circumstances in which the subsidy alleviates or exacerbates the tax distortions, also where housing is tax favoured, as is often the case. The distributional impact depends on the effects of wages on commuting. An empirical illustration based on Norwegian data shows how one can infer efficiency effects of responses to subsidies on commuting. |
| Keywords: | income tax, commuting, commuter cost, subsidies on commuting, place of residence |
| JEL: | H21 H24 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11080&r= |
| By: | Adelia Fatikhova; Fabrizio Fusillo; Sandro Montresor; |
| Abstract: | This work investigates the role of external exchanges of green knowledge on the regional development of new green technological specializations. We extend the recombinant knowledge framework to commodity-embodied knowledge and posit that inter-industry inter-regional flows of commodities, in which new green knowledge gets incorporated, are a channel through which regions can increase their opportunities of specializing in new green technologies and diversify in a more exploratory manner. We further expect these dynamics to be stronger when foreign rather than domestic embodied flows are concerned. By combining the EUREGIO input-output database with patent data, we test our hypotheses on a sample of 237 EU (NUTS2) regions over the period 2000-2019. We measure the regions’ centrality in the network of inter-regional flows of embodied green knowledge (GreenFlowNet) and exploit regional network centrality in a model of related diversification for green technologies. Results show that the centrality of regions in the network is positively associated with green diversification, making this process more exploratory. We also find that the regional ability to acquire new green-techs is mainly associated with the centrality in outward flows of green knowledge towards other regions rather than inward ones. Lastly, we find that regions’ green-tech diversification seems to be enabled (at the extensive margin) primarily by their centrality in the foreign network and accelerated (at the intensive margin) by their centrality in the domestic one. Policy implications are drawn accordingly. |
| Keywords: | green technologies, diversification, relatedness, knowledge networks |
| JEL: | R11 R15 O52 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2413&r= |
| By: | N. Edward Coulson (University of California, Irvine); Thao Le (Georgia State University); Victor Ortego-Marti (Department of Economics, University of California Riverside); Lily Shen (Clemson University) |
| Abstract: | We utilize state-level differences in the legal relationship between landlords and tenants to estimate their impact on rental housing affordability. We construct a Tenant Rights Index (TRI) spanning 1997 to 2016 to assess its effects on eviction rates and rental market outcomes. Increased TRI correlates with higher median rent, lower vacancy rates, and increased homelessness. To rationalize our findings, we develop a search and matching model of the rental market with free entry of both landlords and tenants, and an endogenous eviction mechanism. In our environment, more stringent eviction regulations reduce evictions and raise the relative demand for housing. However, stricter regulations also lead to higher rents and lower vacancy rates. We calibrate the model to the US rental market to quantitatively assess the mechanism in our model. An increase in eviction costs has a larger impact on the eviction rate and market tightness, with a relatively smaller effect on rents and vacancy rates. Our findings suggest that while stringent regulations may reduce evictions, they could lead to unintended consequences such as inflated house prices and heightened homelessness. Policymakers must carefully balance these potential drawbacks against the goal of tenant protection to avoid exacerbating existing housing affordability challenges. |
| Keywords: | Tenant Rights, Eviction, Rent Affordability, Landlord-Tenant Laws |
| JEL: | I38 K25 R13 R28 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucr:wpaper:202404&r= |
| By: | Juan Melo |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the distribution of public school expenditures across U.S. school districts using a bayesian maximum entropy model. Covering the period 2000-2016, I explore how inter-jurisdictional competition and household choice influence spending patterns within the public education sector, providing a novel empirical treatment of the Tiebout hypothesis within a statistical equilibrium framework. The analysis reveals that these expenditures are characterized by sharply peaked and positively skewed distributions, suggesting significant socioeconomic stratification. Employing Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, I fit these patterns into a statistical equilibrium model to elucidate the roles of competition, as well as household mobility and arbitrage in shaping the distribution of educational spending. The analysis reveals how the scale parameters associated with competition and household choice critically shape the equilibrium outcomes. The model and analysis offer a statistical basis for shaping policy measures intended to affect distributional outcomes in scenarios characterized by the decentralized provision of local public goods. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.17700&r= |
| By: | Brandtjen, Roland |
| Abstract: | In Europe exist over 200 languages of which only 24 are official languages of the EU. What effect do have minority and regional languages onto prosperity? Is there any correlation between the language use and regional GDP per capita? How does affect the meaning of an own regional language the regional wealth? These questions have not been answered yet in the scientific literature. To answer them, data of the German Bundesländer, the Regions of France and Italy, the autonomous communities and cities of Spain, the British constituency countries and Cornwall, as well as Monaco, Andorra, Liechtenstein, San Marino, Greenland, the Faroe Islands, Åland, the Isle of Man, the Bailiwick of Guernsey, the Bailiwick of Jersey and Gibraltar This paper attempts to examine and fill a scientific gap on this topic by means of the comparison of economic data with results of adapted quantitative surveys. From 2019 and 2023, these surveys have been conducted in all mentioned regions. They are analysed by descriptive statistics. Correlation between regional language use and regional wealth, meaning of regional language use for the population and regional prosperity as well as the meaning of own unique culture for the regional population are calculated and interpreted. The paper concludes with a Conclusion, the bibliography and an annex. |
| Keywords: | Language, Minority rights, Economy, European Charter of Regional and Minority Languages, Language Protection, Prosperity |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iubhbm:294844&r= |
| By: | Daniel A. Dias; Joao B. Duarte |
| Abstract: | Being a homeowner is one of the tenets of the American dream. In general, relative to renting, people see homeownership as a path to wealth through the usual appreciation of the house prices and the forced savings through mortgage payments but also a path to financial stability through more stable and predictable housing costs (Young et al., 2023). |
| Date: | 2024–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2024-05-03-2&r= |
| By: | Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina; Marcén, Miriam; Morales, Marina; Sevilla, Almudena |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; school closures; parental labor supply; United States; (CoG PARENTIME-770839; PID2020-114354RA-I00 |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122402&r= |
| By: | Arcak, Murat PhD; Kurzhanskiy, Alexander A. PhD |
| Abstract: | The increasing use of transportation network companies and delivery services has transformed the utilization of curb space, resulting in a lack of parking and contributing to congestion. No systematic method exists for identifying curb usage patterns, but emerging machine learning technologies and low-tech data sources, such as dashboard cameras mounted on vehicles that routinely travel the area, have the potential of monitoring curb usage. To demonstrate how video data can be used to recognize usage patterns, we conducted a case study on Bancroft Way in Berkeley, CA. The project collected video footage with GPS data from a dashboard camera installed on a shuttle bus that circles the area. We trained a machine learning model to recognize different types of delivery vehicles in the data images, and then used the model to visualize curbside usage trends. The findings include identifying hot spots, analyzing arrival patterns by delivery vehicle type, detecting bus lane blockage, and assessing the impact of parking on traffic flow. The proof-ofconcept study demonstrated that machine learning techniques, when coupled with affordable hardware like a dashboard camera, can reveal curb usage patterns. The data can be used to efficiently manage curb space, facilitate goods movement, improve traffic flow, and enhance safety. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Curb side parking, computer vision, visual texture recognition, data collection, cameras, GPS, demonstration project |
| Date: | 2024–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt7vf362bp&r= |
| By: | Tselios, Vassilis; Rodriguez-Pose, Andres |
| Abstract: | Poverty reduction and the tackling of social exclusion are overarching goals of development and welfare policies. This paper explores the extent to which decentralization contributes to poverty and social exclusion alleviation in European countries and regions. We find evidence that increases in central government transfers of political, administrative and fiscal authority to subnational tiers of government reduce poverty and address social exclusion at the national level. This, however, mainly happens in countries with a high degree of governance quality and, fundamentally, in urban areas. The link between decentralization and poverty and social exclusion alleviation is more uniform at the regional level, as greater regional autonomy is connected to lower poverty and social exclusion, regardless of the quality of regional government. Hence, when regional governments have the capacity to design their own independent policies, a reduction of poverty and social exclusion and improvements in well-being generally ensue. |
| Keywords: | decentralisation; poverty; social exclusion; quality of governance; urban areas; Europe; decentralization; Membership Research Grant (MeRSA) |
| JEL: | H11 H53 I32 R11 |
| Date: | 2022–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:115545&r= |
| By: | Albiez, Janine (Swiss Coordination Centre for Research in Education); Strazzeri, Maurizio (Bern University of Applied Sciences); Wolter, Stefan C. (University of Bern) |
| Abstract: | We examine the association between the personality trait grit and post-compulsory educational choices and trajectories using a large survey linked to administrative student register data. Exploiting cross sectional variation in students' self-reported grit in the last year of compulsory school, we find that an increase in students' grit is associated with a higher likelihood to start a vocational education instead of a general education. This association is robust to the inclusion of cognitive skill measures and a comprehensive set of other students' background characteristics. Moreover, using novel data on skill requirements of around 240 vocational training occupations, we find that grittier vocational education students sort into math-intensive training occupations. Similarly, students in general education with more grit select themselves more often into the math-intensive track. Finally, we do not find evidence that students with a higher grit have lower dropout rates in post-compulsory education. |
| Keywords: | non-cognitive skills, personality traits, grit, educational choices |
| JEL: | D01 I20 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16945&r= |
| By: | Hideo Akabayashi (Faculty of Economics, Keio University); Ryuichi Tanaka (Institute of Social Science, University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | We present new estimates of the internal rate of return to early childhood education. Utilizing the nationwide expansion of preschool education in Japan between 1960 and 1980, we initially assess the impact of preschool attendance on high school graduation and college enrollment for men. Subsequently, we compute the social rate of return to preschool attendance for men by drawing upon national wage statistics to project expected wage trajectories and referencing government documents to account for the social cost of preschools. Our findings indicate a social rate of return ranging from 5.7% to 8.1%, consistent with previous estimates in the literature. |
| Keywords: | Internal rate of return, Universal preschool expansion, Kindergarten, Nursery school |
| JEL: | I22 I28 H75 |
| Date: | 2024–04–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:2024-011&r= |
| By: | Guichard, Lucas (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Machado, Joël (LISER) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the externalities arising from a bilateral asylum policy - the list of safe origin countries - relying on a tractable model. Using self-collected monthly data, we estimate that including one origin country on the safe list of a given destination decreases asylum applications from that origin to that destination by 29%. We use a counterfactual policy simulation to quantify the spillover effects occurring across origin and destination countries. Individuals from targeted origin countries move to alternative destinations. Individuals from untargeted origins divert from alternative destinations. The magnitude of the externalities depends on the size of the affected flows. |
| Keywords: | migration, asylum seekers, asylum policy, safe origin country, refugee |
| JEL: | F22 K37 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16935&r= |
| By: | Nilsson, Peter (Institute for International Economic Studies & Linnaeus University); Tarduno, Matthew (University of Illinois at Chicago); Tebbe, Sebastian (School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California San Diego) |
| Abstract: | We provide a framework for setting congestion charges that reflect emission and congestion externalities and policy responses, such as vehicle ownership, driving, and residential sorting. Using Swedish administrative microdata, we identify these responses by exploiting a temporary exemption for alternative fuel vehicles and variation in individuals’ exposure to congestion charges. We find that commuters respond by adopting exempted alternative fuel vehicles, shifting trips away from fossil fuel toward alternative fuel vehicles, and changing where they live and work. We combine the estimated responses with the framework to recover an optimal congestion charge of €9.46 per crossing in Stockholm. |
| Keywords: | congestion pricing; |
| JEL: | R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2024–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vxesta:2024_007&r= |
| By: | Fournier, Nicholas PhD; Patire, Anthony PhD; Skabardonis, Alexander PhD |
| Abstract: | Dynamic toll pricing based on demand can increase transportation revenue while also incentivizing travelers to avoid peak traffic periods. However, given the unpredictable nature of traffic, travelers lack the information necessary to accurately predict congestion, so dynamic pricing has minimal effect on demand. Dynamic toll pricing also poses equity concerns for those who lack other travel options. This research explores a potential remedy to these concerns by using a simple “futures market” pricing mechanism in which travelers can lock in a toll price for expected trips by prepaying for future tolls, with the future price increasing as more travelers book an overlapping time slot. This approach encourages travelers to avoid driving during the peak periods when pricing increases toward capacity or to purchase trips in advance when the price remains low or discounted, thus using infrastructure capacity more efficiently. Travelers that do not prepurchase their trip are subject to the real-time market price, which is determined by dynamic congestion pricing. This futures-market mechanism can augment existing toll collection technologies and provide travelers with sufficient pricing information and purchasing options to preplan their travel and avoid excessive prices. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Congestion pricing, tolls, traffic congestion, elasticity (Economics), travel demand, congestion management systems |
| Date: | 2023–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt6g34r2mx&r= |
| By: | Dyer, Travis; Köchling, Gerrit; Limbach, Peter |
| Abstract: | We show that investors acquire more public information about firms to which they are more socially proximate. On average, a standard deviation increase in the Social Connectedness Index (Bailey et al., 2018) between a firm's headquarter county and a searcher county is associated with 30% more EDGAR filing downloads from the searcher county. The effect of social proximity on traditional investment research is distinct from the effect of geographic proximity. We find similar results studying headquarter relocations, investor-level data, and EDGAR downloads from European regions, for which physical distance should be irrelevant. Social proximity matters more during times of high market-wide uncertainty and for firms with weaker information environments. Finally, information gathered by socially proximate investors predicts short-term earnings and stock returns, but also heightened volatility. Collectively, the evidence indicates that social networks mitigate informational frictions and foster information acquisition in financial markets. |
| Keywords: | Corporate disclosures, EDGAR, Geography, Information acquisition, Social networks, Social connections |
| JEL: | D80 D83 G10 G41 M40 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:294838&r= |
| By: | Alizade, Jeyhun (WZB Berlin Social Science Center) |
| Abstract: | Concern that immigration worsens crime problems is prevalent across Western publics. How does it shape electoral politics? Prior research asserted a growing left-right divide in immigration attitudes and voting behavior due to educational realignment. In contrast, I argue that leftist voters are more conservative on immigrant crime than leftist parties, which can drive highly-educated progressives (so-called `cosmopolitans') to right-wing parties. I demonstrate this voter-party mismatch using survey data from 14 Western European countries linked with expert ratings of party positions. A panel survey from Germany further shows that concern about immigrant crime increases vote intention for the center right among voters of the Greens – the party of leftist cosmopolitans. A conjoint experiment among German voters replicates this defection effect and shows that it persists even if the center right stigmatizes immigrants or adopts conservative socio-cultural issue positions. Repercussions of immigration can in fact drive leftist cosmopolitans to the right. |
| Date: | 2024–04–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:h967e&r= |
| By: | Alexander Bick; Adam Blandin; Karel Mertens; Hannah Rubinton |
| Abstract: | Interstate migration by working-age adults in the US declined substantially during the Great Recession and remained subdued through 2019. We document that interstate migration rose sharply following the 2020 Covid-19 outbreak, nearly recovering to pre-Great recession levels, and provide evidence that this reversal was primarily driven by the rise in work from home (WFH). Before the pandemic, interstate migration by WFH workers was consistently 50% higher than for commuters. Since the Covid-19 outbreak, this migration gap persisted while the WFH share tripled. Using quasi-panel data and plausibly exogenous changes in employer WFH policies, we address concerns about omitted variables or reverse causality and conclude that access to WFH induces greater interstate migration. An aggregate accounting exercise suggests that over half of the rise in interstate migration since 2019 can be accounted for by the rise in the WFH share. Moreover, both actual WFH and pre-pandemic WFH potential, based on occupation shares, can account for a sizable share of cross-state variation in migration. |
| Keywords: | interstate migration; work from home; remote work; labor mobility |
| JEL: | J11 J22 J61 O15 R10 |
| Date: | 2024–05–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:98267&r= |
| By: | De Vera, Micole (University College London); Garcia-Brazales, Javier (CEMFI); Rello, Luz (IE University) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate a reading intervention involving 600 third-grade students in Chilean schools catering to disadvantaged populations. The intervention features an adaptive computer game designed to identify and improve weaknesses in literacy and cognitive skills, and is complemented by a mobile library and advice to parents to increase student's interest and parental involvement. We first quantify the impact on non-cognitive skills and academic perceptions. We find that, after just three months of intervention, treated students are 20–30 percent of a standard deviation more likely to believe that their performance is better than that of their peers, to like school, to have stronger grit, and to have a more internal locus-of-control. Gains in aspirations and self-confidence are particularly large for students that we identify as at-risk-of-dyslexia. These improvements are reflected in better performance on a nation-wide, standardized language test. Our results show that non-cognitive skills, particularly of at-risk-of-dyslexia students, can be changed through a short, light-touch, and cost-effective education technology intervention. |
| Keywords: | field experiment, computer-based reading intervention, non-cognitive skills, Chile, dyslexia |
| JEL: | I24 I31 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16937&r= |
| By: | Alexander Moog |
| Abstract: | Internal migration is an essential aspect to study labor mobility. I exploit the German statutory minimum wage introduction in 2015 to estimate its push and pull effects on internal migration using a 2% sample of administrative data. In a conditional fixed effects Poisson difference-in-differences framework with a continuous treatment, I find that the minimum wage introduction leads to an increase in the out-migration of low-skilled workers with migrant background by 25% with an increasing tendency over time from districts where a high share of workers are subject to the minimum wage (high-bite districts). In contrast the migration decision of native-born low-skilled workers is not affected by the policy. However, both native-born low-skilled workers and those with a migrant background do relocate across establishments, leaving high-bite districts as their workplace. In addition, I find an increase for unemployed individuals with a migrant background in out-migrating from high-bite districts. These results emphasize the importance of considering the effects on geographical labor mobility when implementing and analyzing policies that affect the determinants of internal migration. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.19590&r= |
| By: | Diogo G. C. Britto; Roberto Hsu Rocha; Paolo Pinotti; Breno Sampaio |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effect of having a child on parents’ criminal behavior using rich administrative data from Brazil. Fathers’ criminal activity sharply increases by up to 10% during the pregnancy period, and by up to 30% two years after birth, while mothers experience only a transitory decline in criminal activity around childbirth. The effect on fathers lasts for at least six years and can explain at least 5% of the overall male crime rate. Domestic violence within the family also increases after childbirth, reflecting both increases in actual violence and women’s propensity to report. The generalized increase in fathers’ crime stands in sharp contrast with previous evidence from developed countries, where childbirth is associated with significant and enduring declines in criminal behavior by both parents. Our findings can be explained by the costs of parenthood and the pervasiveness of poverty among newly formed Brazilian families. Consistent with this explanation, we provide novel evidence that access to maternity benefits largely offsets the increase in crime by fathers after childbirth. |
| Keywords: | crime, parenthood, maternity benefits |
| JEL: | D10 J13 K42 H55 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11083&r= |
| By: | Silvia Angerer (UMIT TIROL - Private University for Health Sciences and Health Technology); Hanna Brosch (Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Management, Heilbronn Campus); Daniela Glätzle-Rützler (University of Innsbruck); Philipp Lergetporer (Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Management, Heilbronn & ifo Institute); Thomas Rittmansberger (Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Management) |
| Abstract: | We present representative evidence of discrimination against migrants through an incentivized choice experiment with over 2, 000 participants. Decision makers allocate a fixed endowment between two receivers. To measure discrimination, we randomly vary receivers’ migration background and other attributes, including education, gender, and age. We find that discrimination against migrants by the general population is both widespread and substantial. Our causal moderation analysis shows that migrants with higher education and female migrants experience significantly less discrimination. Discrimination is more pronounced among decision makers who are male, non-migrants, have right-wing political preferences, and live in regions with lower migrant shares. |
| Keywords: | discrimination, representative sample, migration, experiment |
| JEL: | C91 C93 J15 D90 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aiw:wpaper:35&r= |
| By: | Shuhei Nishitateno and Paul J. Burke |
| Abstract: | In October 2003 four contiguous prefectures in Greater Tokyo introduced Low Emission Zones (LEZs) from which diesel trucks and buses without particulate filters have been banned from entering. This paper analyzes the effects of this large-scale intervention on air quality, new vehicle registrations, and birthweights. We use a matching approach to construct a control group comparable to the designated areas in terms of propensity scores based on municipality characteristics during the pre-intervention period and apply a difference-in-differences design. We find evidence that the intervention led to reductions in hourly particulate matter concentrations and the incidence of low birthweights in the Greater Tokyo LEZ relative to the control group. We also find that the LEZs led to increases in registrations of new trucks and buses. This is not the case for passenger cars, which were exempt from the regulations. Our paper provides the first evidence of a significant link between LEZs and reduced incidence of low birthweights. |
| JEL: | Q53 R48 I18 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2024-2&r= |
| By: | Tjaden, Jasper; Heidland, Tobias |
| Abstract: | In 2015, German Chancellor Angela Merkel decided to allow over a million asylum seekers to cross the border into Germany. One key concern was that her decision would signal an open‐door policy to aspiring migrants worldwide – thus further increasing migration to Germany and making the country permanently more attractive to irregular and humanitarian migrants. This ‘pull‐effect’ hypothesis has been a mainstay of policy discussions ever since. With the continued global rise in forced displacement, not appearing welcoming to migrants has become a guiding principle for the asylum policy of many large receiving countries. In this article, we exploit the unique case study that Merkel's 2015 decision provides for answering the fundamental question of whether welcoming migration policies have sustained effects on migration towards destination countries. We analyze an extensive range of data on migration inflows, migration aspirations and online search interest between 2000 and 2020. The results reject the ‘pull effect’ hypothesis while reaffirming states’ capacity to adapt to changing contexts and regulate migration. |
| Keywords: | migration, policy, refugee, pull effect, Germany |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:294184&r= |
| By: | Jeronimo Carballo; Richard Mansfield; Charles Adam Pfander |
| Abstract: | Multi-establishment firms account for around 60% of U.S. workers’ primary employers, providing ample opportunity for workers to change their work location without changing their employer. Using U.S. matched employer-employee data, this paper analyzes workers’ access to and use of such between-establishment job transitions, and estimates the effect on workers’ earnings growth of greater access, as measured by proximity of employment at other within-firm establishments. While establishment transitions are not perfectly observed, we estimate that within-firm establishment transitions account for 7.8% percent of all job transitions and 18.2% of transitions originating from the largest firms. Using variation in worker’s establishment locations within their firms’ establishment network, we show that having a greater share of the firm’s jobs in nearby establishments generates meaningful increases in workers’ earnings: a worker at the 90th percentile of earnings gains from more proximate within-firm job opportunities can expect to enjoy 2% higher average earnings over the following five years than a worker at the 10th percentile with the same baseline earnings. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:24-24&r= |
| By: | Pablo Zarate; Mathias Dolls; Steven J. Davis; Nicholas Bloom; Jose Maria Barrero; Cevat Giray Aksoy |
| Abstract: | We use two surveys to assess why work from home (WFH) varies so much across countries and people. A measure of cultural individualism accounts for about one-third of the cross-country variation in WFH rates. Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US score highly on individualism and WFH rates, whereas Asian countries score low on both. Other factors such as cumulative lockdown stringency, population density, industry mix, and GDP per capita also matter, but they account for less of the variation. When looking across individual workers in the United States, we find that industry mix, population density and lockdown severity help account for current WFH rates, as does the partisan leaning of the county in which the worker resides. We conclude that multiple factors influence WFH rates, and technological feasibility is only one of them. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11081&r= |
| By: | Li, Shuo (Faculty of Business and Economics, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China); Wang, Min (China Center for Economic Research, National School of Development, Peking University, Beijing, China) |
| Abstract: | The paper provides a comprehensive investigation of the effects of environmental regulations on Chinese firms’ extensive margins. Using registration information of all firms in 35 industries from 1991 to 2010, we show that environmental regulations deter firm entry, increase firm exit and reduce the net entry of firms. Specifically, in response to such regulations, large, long-lived and private entrants are less likely to enter the market, and small and long-lived incumbents are more likely to exit. This concentrates the market and expands the state sector in pollution-intensive industries. Moreover, the entrants are more heavily regulated than incumbents. We also find evidence that, in response to environmental regulations, firms in regulated locations are more likely to create new firms in pollution-intensive industries in unregulated areas. However, these spatial spillover effects are negligible, posing little threat to the estimation of environmental regulatory impacts on firm entry in our setting and therefore alleviating the concern of pollution relocation. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Regulation; Firm Entry; Firm Exit; Equity Investment; Spatial Spillover; Inter-city Investment |
| JEL: | L51 O44 Q52 Q58 R38 |
| Date: | 2022–10–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunefd:2022_015&r= |
| By: | Eduardo Amaral Haddad; Karim El Aynaoui; Abdelaaziz Ait Ali; Mahmoud Arbouch; Hamza Saoudi; Inacio F. Araujo |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to quantify the economic loss from the earthquake that hit Morocco on September 8, 2023, and to evaluate the impact of the five-year reconstruction plan, that will account for roughly 8.5% of GDP. Given the geographically concentrated location of the earthquake, which hit some provinces in the central part of Morocco, the methodology used relies on an inter- province inter-industry Input-Output (IIO) table for Morocco. Assuming that the resources to be spent on infrastructure reconstruction efforts equal the actual loss of capital stock suffered in the provinces, a partial hypothetical extraction is operated on the Moroccan IIO system to simulate the damages suffered by each sector. The reconstruction plan’s impact on the economy is simulated for the period 2023-2028, using official information on households’ transfers and residential reconstruction aid, in addition to the investment efforts to rehabilitate the affected areas. Our findings suggest that the earthquake will lead to a growth loss of 0.24% of Morocco’s GDP in 2023. The reconstruction plan’s impact on Morocco’s overall economic growth is expected to be mild. However, it is likely to significantly affect the gross regional product (GRP) of the affected provinces, with the magnitude of the effect depending heavily on whether the allocated funds represent new injections into the economy, or merely reallocations of investments across regions. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaper:rp-0724&r= |
| By: | Mestler, Logan |
| Abstract: | Equitable resource allocation within K-12 public schools across the United States is critical. It can ensure that socioeconomic circumstances do not hinder students’ abilities to attain their fullest potential. This paper provides introductory information to contextualize this topic and then explores a variety of related obstacles to equity. These barriers include challenges in the domains of teacher and administrator quality, rural education, and access to college preparation programming. A number of possible recommendations are then proposed in the form of revitalized finance models, universal education savings accounts, charter schools, educator-related resources, and sports equipment donations. Overall, this paper’s comprehensive analysis can help promote equity and enhance students’ lives. |
| Date: | 2024–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:yf8m3&r= |
| By: | Hsieh, Chih Sheng; Deer, Lachlan (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Koenig, Michael; Vega-Redondo, Fernando |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:d03852a7-c5e7-4be0-8583-1cee0d69bea7&r= |
| By: | Muntasir Chaudhury (East West University); Szilvia Papai (Concordia University and CIREQ) |
| Abstract: | We study three basic welfare axioms for school choice mechanisms with a reserve or quota-based affirmative action policy, namely non-wastefulness, respecting the affirmative action policy, and minimal responsiveness, and show that none of the previously proposed mechanisms satisfy all of them. Then we introduce a new mechanism which satisfies these three axioms. This mechanism issues immediate acceptances to minority students for minority reserve seats and otherwise it employs deferred acceptance. We analyze the fairness and incentive properties of this newly proposed affirmative action mechanism and provide possibility and impossibility results which highlight the trade-offs. |
| Keywords: | school choice, affirmative action, minority reserves, non-wastefulness, minimal responsiveness, deferred acceptance, immediate acceptance, priority violations, strategyproofness |
| JEL: | C78 D47 D63 D78 |
| Date: | 2024–05–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crd:wpaper:24001&r= |
| By: | Antonio Di Paolo (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona); Khalifany-Ash Shidiqi (Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta and University of Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyse the effect of educational attainments on interethnic marriages in Indonesia, a multi-ethnic emerging country. The empirical analysis is based on data from the Java Island obtained from the 2014 wave of the Indonesian Family Life Survey, combined with administrative data about the location and year of establishment of Higher Education Institutions (HEI). To estimate causal effects, we exploit variation in exposure to HEI by birth year and district of residence in an IV/TSLS framework. Specifically, we employ as instrument for education the number of HEI located in a radius of 10 kilometres from the centroid of the district of residence at age 18. The analysis is carried out at the individual level, with separate estimations for males and females. The results indicate that years of schooling, college attendance and completion positively affect the likelihood of exogamy, i.e. having a partner from a different ethnicity. The estimated coefficients are somewhat larger for females than for males, and all the robustness checks provide stable results, supporting their causal interpretation. The effect of schooling does not appear to be heterogeneous depending on parental education, and mixed parental ethnicity. However, it is lower for individuals with Javanese ethnicity compared to those belonging to other ethnic groups. We also analyse potential mechanisms, highlighting that migration/residential location and changes in social norms could be significant channels underlying the causal chain between higher education expansion, educational attainments, and interethnic marriages. Overall, the results reported in this paper point out that the increase in educational attainments induced by the expansion of higher education could contribute to the reduction of ethnic segregation. |
| Keywords: | Education, interethnic marriages, higher education expansion, Indonesia JEL classification: I21, I23, J12 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:202403&r= |
| By: | Zoltán Szücs |
| Abstract: | This article proposes to present the state of affairs of French municipal police forces, and to provide a review of the relevant scientific literature at the moment of the creation of the municipal police of Paris. This municipal police was born in a context of low levels of sense of insecurity, but high levels of different kinds of public nuisance, justifying the focus of its activities on the disturbances of public tranquillity. To keep this focus, one of the major issues is to maintain a clear and complementary share of competences with the forces of the national police. However, our article alerts on some difficulties to do so : according to our estimates on panel data, increasing municipal police force size are on average accompanied by a simultaneous drop in the national police force size on a local level in France, generating a substitution effect. In addition, a series of operational choices – in terms of recruitment, equipment, resource allocation – will impact if the new municipal police can efficiently address the issues of public tranquillity, which also depends on the level of trust and legitimacy recognized by the population. |
| Keywords: | policing ; municipal police ; public policies ; security ; public tranquillity |
| JEL: | H41 K40 K42 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2024-15&r= |
| By: | Goldring, Thomas (Georgia State University); Jacob, Brian A. (University of Michigan); Kreisman, Daniel (Georgia State University); Ricks, Michael D. (University of Nebraska-Lincoln) |
| Abstract: | In 2015, Michigan increased it Career and Technical Education (CTE) funding and changed its funding formula to reimburse programsbased student progression through program curricula. Although this change nearly doubled program completion rates, student enrollment and persistence were unaffected; instead, administrators accelerated student progress by reorganizing course curricula around notches in the new funding formula. As a result of response heterogeneity, 30% of the funding increase is transferred away from high-poverty districts to more affluent ones, underscoring how supply-side responses to loopholes shape the incidence of public services. |
| Keywords: | career and technical education, school funding, loopholes |
| JEL: | I21 J24 I24 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16943&r= |
| By: | Yi Ji; Myrto Oikonomou; Carlo Pizzinelli; Mr. Ippei Shibata; Ms. Marina Mendes Tavares |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of changes in commuting time on welfare and labor supply in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Utilizing data from the American Time Use Survey, we observe a shift in commuting time and working hours across occupations with varying ability of telework after the pandemic. We develop a household model of labor supply that accounts for commuting time, and we characterize how changes in commuting time impact individuals' and spouses' labor supply. We calibrate the model to the data. Our findings reveal that the observed post-pandemic decline in commuting time yields significant welfare gains: between 1.5 to 4.5 percent of consumption equivalents for households where at least one spouse experiences reduced commuting. |
| Keywords: | Commuting time; Working from home; Labor Supply; Welfare Gains |
| Date: | 2024–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/094&r= |
| By: | Sid Bhatia; Samuel Gedal; Himaya Jeyakumar Grace Lee; Ravinder Chopra; Daniel Roman; Shrijani Chakroborty |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market and proposes a novel blockchain-based protocol for real estate transactions. Our analysis includes a detailed review of price trends, volatility, and correlations within the cryptocurrency market, focusing on major assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tether. We provide a critical assessment of the impact of significant market events, such as the FTX bankruptcy, highlighting the vulnerabilities and resilience of the crypto market. The study also explores the potential of blockchain technology to innovate real estate transactions by enabling the secure and transparent handling of property deeds without traditional intermediaries. We introduce a blockchain protocol that reduces transaction costs, enhances security, and increases transparency, making real estate transactions more accessible and efficient. Our proposal aims to leverage the inherent benefits of blockchain to address real-world challenges in real estate transactions, providing a scalable and secure platform for property sales in a global market. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2405.02547&r= |
| By: | Dmytro Holod; Joe Peek; Gökhan Torna |
| Abstract: | This study provides direct evidence of the value to banks arising from relationship lending by estimating the market premium placed on banking organizations’ small business loan portfolios. Using data from the small business loan survey contained in the June bank Call Reports, we find that small commercial and industrial (C&I) loans add value to community banks both in absolute terms and relative to the value contributed by larger C&I loans. The value‐enhancing effect of small business loans is observed primarily at small community banks, and it was present during the Great Recession as well as during periods of more normal economic conditions. Furthermore, the value creation emanates primarily from the smallest relationship‐based C&I loans, those with original values of $100, 000 or less, and at the smallest community banks. By contrast, small commercial real estate (CRE) loans, being relatively more transactional than C&I loans, do not contribute additional value to community banking organizations. The evidence is consistent with a positive role played by small banks making relationship‐based loans to small firms. |
| Keywords: | small business lending; relationship lending; community banks; bank value; commercial and industrial (C&I) lending; commercial real estate (CRE) loans |
| JEL: | G21 G28 G31 |
| Date: | 2024–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:98190&r= |
| By: | Clemens, Michael A. (George Mason University) |
| Abstract: | Legal and illegal markets often coexist. In theory, marginal legalization can either substitute for the remaining parallel market, or complement it via scale effects. I study migrants crossing without prior authorization at the US southwest border, where large-scale unlawful crossing coexists with substantial, varying, and policy-constrained lawful crossing. I test whether lawful and unlawful crossing are gross substitutes or complements, using lag-augmented local projections to analyze a monthly time-series on the full universe of 10, 658, 497 inadmissible migrants encountered from October 2011 through July 2023. Expanded lawful crossings cause reduced unlawful crossings, an effect that grows over time and reaches elasticity -0.3 after approximately 10 months. That is, in this case, expanded activity on the lawful market substitutes for the parallel market, even net of scale effects. This deterrent effect explains approximately 9 percent of the overall variance in unlawful crossings. In an ancillary finding, I fail to reject a null effect of depenalizing unlawful crossings on future attempted unlawful crossings. |
| Keywords: | migrant, immigrant, border, unauthorized, undocumented, illegal, unlawful, black market, legal, legalize, depenalize, decriminalize, shadow, parallel market, illicit, clandestine, smuggler, wall, fence, irregular, refugee, asylum |
| JEL: | F22 J61 K42 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16940&r= |
| By: | Stienen, Valentijn (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:93ad9ed2-53a0-49d2-8dbe-44da3da98da8&r= |
| By: | Justine Hervé (Stevens Institute of Technology); Subha Mani (Fordham University, the Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, IZA and GLO); Jere Behrman (University of Pennsylvania); Ramanan Laxminarayan (One Health Trust and Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | Food coma, also known as postprandial somnolence, is a commonly cited reason for experiencing reduced alertness during mid-afternoon worldwide. By using exogenous variation in the timing of tests and, hence, by extension, plausibly exogenous variation in the temporal distance between an individual’s last meal and the time of test, we examine the causal impact of postprandial somnolence on cognitive capacities. Analyzing novel time use data on ~ 4, 600 Indian adolescents and young adults, we find that testing within an hour after a meal reduces test-takers’ scores on English, native language, math, and Raven’s tests by 8, 8, 8, and 16 percent, respectively, compared to test-takers who took the tests more than an hour after their meal. We further find that the negative effect of postprandial somnolence on cognition operates through increased feelings of fatigue and depletion of cognitive resources that become more pronounced while dealing with more challenging test questions. |
| Keywords: | Post-meal fatigue, Cognitive skills, Low-stakes tests, India, Adolescents |
| JEL: | I12 I18 I21 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–04–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pen:papers:24-011&r= |
| By: | Fernanda Brollo |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of automation on the U.S. labor market from 2000 to 2007, specifically examining whether more generous social protection programs can mitigate negative effects. Following Acemoglu and Restrepo (2020), the study finds that areas with higher robot adoption reduced employment and wages, in particular for workers without collegue degree. Notably, the paper exploits differences in social protection generosity across states and finds that areas with more generous unemployment insurance (UI) alleviated the negative effects on wages, especially for less-skilled workers. The results suggest that UI allowed displaced workers to find better matches The findings emphasize the importance of robust social protection policies in addressing the challenges posed by automation, contributing valuable insights for policymakers. |
| Keywords: | Automation; Innovation; Gen-AI; Social Protection; Social Assistance; Social Safety Nets; Labor Market; Unemployment Insurance |
| Date: | 2024–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/095&r= |
| By: | Fontana, S.;; Guccio, C.;; Pignataro, G.;; Romeo, D.; |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to assess the impact of a cash transfer programme implemented in Italy since 2014, known as the '80 euro bonus', on health outcomes as gauged by mortality rates. Using municipality-level data over the period 2010-2019 and a difference-in-differences approach, we find a significant reduction in mortality rates associated with the size of cash transfers and the number of recipients in the municipality. This effect remains robust across several checks. Furthermore, at the provincial level, we observe sustained decreases in mortality rates, especially for cancer and cardiovascular diseases, in the areas with a higher concentration of cash transfer recipients. These results support the positive impact of increased financial resources on health outcomes and highlight the role of cash transfers as effective tools for public health policies. |
| Keywords: | cash transfer; personal income; health outcomes; mortality rate; local communities; difference-in-difference; |
| JEL: | C23 E32 H24 I10 I18 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:24/04&r= |
| By: | Patire, Anthony D. PhD; Dion, Francois PhD; Bayen, Alexandre M. PhD |
| Abstract: | This report explores opportunities for employing autonomous driving technology to dampen stop-and-go waves on freeways. If successful, it could reduce fuel consumption and emissions. This technology was tested in an on-road experiment with 100 vehicles over one week. Public stakeholders were engaged to assess the planning effort and feasibility of taking the technology to the next level: a pilot involving 1000+ vehicles over several months. Considerations included the possible geographical boundaries, target fleets of vehicles, and suitable facilities such as bridges or managed lanes. Flow smoothing technology may improve the user experience and operations of managed lanes or bridges, however it may require external incentives such as reduced tolls to entice the traveling public to use it. This must be matched with other goals such as verifying vehicle occupancy. It might be possible for some hybrid solution that addresses both challenges to provide a way forward. A concept of operations needs to be developed specifically for a target road geometry and a California partner. This concept should benefit from lessons learned from previous pilot projects and will need to be defined so as to achieve both (1) a penetration rate sufficient to achieve measurable effects; and (2) sufficient quality and quantity of data to confirm benefits. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Autonomous vehicles, connected vehicles, traffic flow, advanced traffic management systems, demonstration projects |
| Date: | 2024–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt726964qq&r= |
| By: | Matthew Klesta |
| Abstract: | The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s Community Issues Survey (CIS) collects information semiannually from direct service providers to monitor economic conditions and identify issues impacting low- and moderate-income (LMI) households in the Fourth District, a region that includes Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky, and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. In March 2024, we surveyed nearly 600 organizations that directly serve LMI individuals and communities across our District and received 100 responses (17 percent response rate). The results of this survey are summarized here and provide insights into how organizations and the households they serve are faring as they continue to navigate the impacts of inflation. |
| Keywords: | LMI; Fourth District; economic conditions |
| Date: | 2024–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:c00034:98209&r= |
| By: | Magan, Mohamed; Hassan, Hashi; Leight, Jessica; Hirvonen, Kalle; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Rakshit, Deboleena |
| Abstract: | Somalia is among the most impoverished nations globally, grappling with severe poverty, persistent armed conflicts, and recurrent droughts and floods, leading to a humanitarian crisis marked by substantial internal displacement. The site of this evaluation, Baidoa, has 517 sites for internally displaced persons (IDPs), housing nearly 600, 000 households. Notably, 64% of the residents in these sites are women and girls. The 2nd Somali High-Frequency Survey revealed that poverty is particularly pronounced in IDP settlements, compounded by high unemployment rates and a lack of income-generating opportunities, thereby exacerbating the challenging circumstances in this area. This brief reports findings from a qualitative assessment conducted in January 2024 exploring the effects of severe floods in Baidoa and the role of the Ultra-Poor Graduation (UPG) intervention in protecting households from these shocks. |
| Keywords: | conflicts; flooding; households; poverty; women; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Somalia |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:othbrf:141613&r= |