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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Alessandro Maravalle; Aida Caldera Sánchez; Alberto González Pandiella |
| Abstract: | Access to adequate housing remains challenging in Mexico as many low- and middle- income households cannot afford purchasing a house because of high housing prices and limited access to credit. An underdeveloped housing rental market and insufficient supply of social and affordable housing force many households to resort to self-build or to reside in informal settlements. Administrative fragmentation and lack of coordination across levels of government favours a disordered urban development that provokes residential segregation, with vulnerable groups often living in peripheral areas with limited access to jobs, transport and urban services. Housing policies have recently become more targeted towards low-income households, which is commendable. Expanding the range of housing subsidies and fostering the development of a social rental housing sector would be valuable additional steps to improve access to housing for low-income households. Reforming the fiscal and legal framework to encourage private investment into rental housing and promoting public-private partnerships could boost the supply of affordable housing. Tasking states with ensuring that municipalities comply with federal and state urban and housing legislation and improving coordination across urban, housing and transport infrastructure could ease the implementation of national policies and reduce residential segregation. |
| Keywords: | Housing Affordability, Housing Market, Land-use Regulations, Social Housing, Urban Mobility |
| JEL: | H24 R21 R31 R38 R48 R52 |
| Date: | 2024–05–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1801-en&r=ure |
| By: | Anita Schiller; Aurelie Slechten |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effects of oil and gas extraction activities on the educational outcomes of high school students in Texas, focusing on potential variations in these impacts among different demographic groups. We use school-level data from the Texas Academic Performance Reports between 2012-2020, with school performance measured by average scores on the American College Test (ACT). The primary variable of interest is the exposure to oil and gas activities, measured by changes in oil and gas revenues within each school district. The empirical approach controls for school characteristics, and student demographics. To address endogeneity concerns, we adopt an instrumental variable approach. Although the overall impact of oil and gas operations on average school ACT scores is not statistically significant, these activities do influence the relationship between student socioeconomic status and academic achievement. Specifically, for schools situated within districts that receive substantial oil and gas revenues, a small increase in the proportion of economically disadvantaged students is associated with a substantial decline in ACT scores. |
| Keywords: | natural resources, oil and gas activities, human capital, education |
| JEL: | H75 I21 I24 R23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lan:wpaper:411897926&r=ure |
| By: | Loukaitou-Sideris, Anastasia PhD; Circella, Giovanni PhD; Lecompte, Maria Carolina MSc; Rossignol, Lucia; Ozbilen, Basar |
| Abstract: | This study discusses the potential economic and development impacts that high-speed rail (HSR) may bring to California. The research reviews the reported impacts of HSR implementation in various countries, particularly in Europe, and case studies of selected HSR station-cities in France, Spain, and Italy. The analysis suggests that HSR could bring economic development to the state and stimulate population growth but might eventually lead to gentrification in certainlocations. Not all station-cities experience the same impacts, and certain conditions may foster greater economic development. Station location and connectivity to downtown areas would be particularly important in influencing these impacts, while peripheral stations would be less able to attract land use development and relocation of activities. The availability of rail service to larger cities (and connections to other major markets) and the coordination with urban planning and policy are key to determining the development of areas around HSR stations. The study indicates that for HSR to bring about desired economic development, the planning and design of stations and services must be integrated with the vision and urban plans of each station-city. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, High-speed rail, economic development, rail stations, transportation planning, California |
| Date: | 2024–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt5s93r8wb&r=ure |
| By: | Gomes, Alexandra; Burdett, Ricky |
| Abstract: | Background: In recent years, significant research has focused on understanding urban health inequalities across different locations and spatial scales in cities. At the same time, public health practitioners recognise the need for collaborative efforts beyond traditional health programs to address policy decisions impacting environmental quality and urban health. Despite this, there is a notable gap in the exploration of how spatial variations at the neighbourhood level compare with varying health levels. This research aims to bridge this gap, emphasizing the importance of understanding spatial dynamics to enhance the effectiveness of public health interventions and inform policy decisions in cities. Methods: In order to tease out potential associations between varying levels of urban health outcomes and socio-economic and spatial factors, this study focusses on female healthy life expectancy, child obesity, and diabetes within 12 London neighbourhoods situated in the boroughs of Southwark and Lambeth. It employs a combination of spatial clustering techniques, Geographic Information System (GIS) data, and mapping techniques to visually represent and provide a fine-grained analysis of specific areas in London in order to uncovering the strength and nature of the relationships between health levels and the spatial, demographic, and socio-economic characteristics of different urban neighbourhoods. Results: This research offers valuable insights into the complex dynamics of health outcomes across South London communities and emphasizes that holistic interventions, including how better housing, support for active lifestyles, and improved environmental management, can enhance health outcomes, and reduce disparities in cities. Conclusions: In essence, this study underscores the importance of analysing space in conjunction with social conditions when examining cities and neighbourhoods, providing valuable insights for discussions among local policymakers and academics. |
| Keywords: | Geographic Information System mapping (GIS mapping); health inequalities; London; neighbourhoods; socio-spatial inequalities |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2024–03–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122689&r=ure |
| By: | Taylor Higgins; Federico Martellozzo; Filippo Randelli |
| Abstract: | This work aims at investigating and problematizing the effectiveness of regulating short term rental (STR) in the housing sector, by comparing 9 different policies applied in a matching number of cities worldwide. The research focuses on the municipality of Florence, and takes it as a ground zero case study, given that so far regulamentation and monitoring policies in Italy have been absent or at least negligible. The paper aims at providing a comparative analysis of the effects imputable to the hipotetical application of several housing policies to the case study of Florence. Although many cities are experiencing the same dynamics (overtourism, gentrification, commercial use of private apartments), there is not a regulation fitting all of them. While the goal of regulation could be quite similar (reducing the overtourism and limiting commercial style STRs), the underlying processes and consequences differ per city. In this paper we argue that an adequate and data-driven policy can be implemented to ensure that the positive effects of new companies like Airbnb stay within the community and that the majority of hosts using the platform are representative of the community, not multinational commercial operations. The analysis of the Florence case study are based on spatial GIS techniques fuelled by Airbnb scaped data and other data base. Results shows that shifting from a laissez faire approach (which is the status quo) to even the weakest of such policies can have a large impact on dynamics of supply within short term and long term rental housing. |
| Keywords: | short term rentals, AIRbnb, spatial analysis, GIS, housing policies |
| JEL: | Q18 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2023_10.rdf&r=ure |
| By: | Jan David Bakker; Alvaro Garcia Marin; Andrei V. Potlogea; Nico Voigtländer; Yang Yang |
| Abstract: | Does international trade affect the growth of cities, and vice versa? Assembling disaggregate data for four countries, we document a novel stylized fact: Export activity is disproportionately concentrated in larger cities – even more so than overall economic activity. We rationalize this fact by marrying a standard quantitative spatial economics model with a heterogeneous firm model that features selection into the domestic and the export market. Our model delivers novel predictions for the bi-directional interactions between trade and urban dynamics: On the one hand, trade liberalization shifts employment towards larger cities, and on the other hand, liberalizing land use raises exports. We structurally estimate the model using data for the universe of Chinese manufacturing and French firms. We find that trade policies have quantitatively meaningful impacts on urban outcomes and vice versa, and that the aggregate effects of trade and urban policies differ from more standard models that do not account for the interaction between trade and cities. In addition, a distinguishing prediction of our model – which we confirm in the data – is that local trade elasticities vary systematically with city size, so that a country's aggregate trade elasticity depends on the spatial distribution of production within its borders. |
| JEL: | F1 R1 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32377&r=ure |
| By: | Márcio Mateus |
| Abstract: | In this paper we investigate the determinants of the loss given default (LGD) of mortgage loans in Portugal. Exploring loan-level data from the Portuguese Central Credit Register, we show that the original LTV (oLTV) ratio is by far the most important determinant of the LGD of mortgage loans, but the relation between these two variables is not linear. A higher oLTV ratio is associated with a higher LGD of mortgage loans, but only above a certain threshold. We provide evidence that the critical area in the relationship between these two variables lies in a range between 80% and 100%. Our results also highlight the importance of the house price cycle history in explaining the LGD, with distinct short and long-term effects. In the short-term we find a negative correlation between house prices and LGD, meaning that a house price increase just before loan origination seems to contribute to the decrease of the LGD in the future. In the long-term the correlation is positive, which suggests that the higher the house price has increased in the past, the higher the future LGD is expected to be. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202318&r=ure |
| By: | Julius Berger; Waldemar Marz |
| Abstract: | We identify and examine a novel welfare channel of fuel economy standards through the in-teraction with public transit and households’ location choices. A stricter emission standard for cars decreases the marginal cost of driving and triggers a shift in modal choice from public to private transport and a rise in carbon emissions. In the long run, the modal shift exacerbates the increase in the average commute length that results from lower driving costs, as well as traffic congestion. The annual welfare cost for a 50 percent emission reduction goal in a setting calibrated with U.S. data turns out 8 percent (equiv. to 54 USD p.c.) higher than when neglecting public transport. With a larger role of public transport as in Europe, this effect rises to 12 percent (equiv. to 83 USD p.c.). An alternative fuel tax policy, by contrast, induces a modal shift towards public transport and reduces the average commute, urban congestion and the welfare cost of emission reductions. |
| Keywords: | fuel economy standards, public transport, monocentric city, fuel tax, carbon emissions |
| JEL: | H23 Q48 R13 R48 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11061&r=ure |
| By: | da Cruz, Nuno F.; Alrasheed, Dhari; Alrabe, Muneerah; al-Khonaini, Abdullah |
| Abstract: | As a city-state, Kuwait represents an instructive case-study to investigate barriers to sustainable urban development. Among the many challenges faced by the country, the spatial configuration of the metropolis – and the various adverse effects that stem from it – is a key area of concern. In this study, we focus on spatial segregation and measure it at the metropolitan and governorate levels to determine just how serious the problem really is. The results confirm the existence of a highly divided society. Without being able to make causality claims (given the limitations in the data), our evidence points to potential drivers of different nature. A key working hypothesis of our investigation was that urban governance arrangements in Kuwait may be an important part of the story behind these spatial patterns. The empirical findings of our analysis of the governance network of spatial planning in Kuwait strongly support this notion and allow us to draw some policy recommendations to break urban Kuwait’s ‘vicious cycle’, where popular aspirations around unsustainable practices send strong signals to the institutions tasked with formulating policy which, once implemented, recreate societal expectations. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122858&r=ure |
| By: | Derek Neal; Joseph Root |
| Abstract: | Research on centralized school assignment mechanisms often focuses on whether parents who participate in specific mechanisms are likely to truthfully report their preferences or engage in various costly strategic behaviors. However, a growing literature suggests that parents may not know enough about the school options available to them to form complete preference rankings. We develop a simple model that explains why it is not surprising that many participants in school assignment mechanisms possess limited information about the schools available to them. We then discuss policies that could improve both the information that participants bring to school assignment mechanisms and the quality of the schools in their choice sets. |
| JEL: | I20 I28 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32378&r=ure |
| By: | Stephen J. Redding; Daniel M. Sturm |
| Abstract: | We use the German bombing of London during the Second World War as an exogenous source of variation to provide evidence on neighborhood effects. We construct a newly-digitized dataset at the level of individual buildings on wartime destruction, property values, and socioeconomic composition in London before and after the Second World War. We develop a quantitative spatial model, in which heterogeneous groups of individuals endogenously sort across locations in response to differences in natural advantages, wartime destruction and neighborhood effects. We find substantial and highly localized neighborhood effects, which magnify the direct impact of wartime destruction, and make a substantial contribution to observed patterns of spatial sorting across locations. |
| JEL: | F16 N9 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32333&r=ure |
| By: | Kawaguchi, Daiji (University of Tokyo); Kawata, Keisuke (University of Tokyo); Okamoto, Chigusa (University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | Demand externality generated by the agglomeration of commercial activities is a potential source of city formation. We study the impact of a large-scale urban redevelopment program involving the construction of a shopping complex at the center of Tokyo. The redevelopment program increased the land price and commercial building use in its neighborhood. It also increased the total sales of neighborhood firms but not their profits. We argue that the redevelopment program generated substantial demand externality but the benefit fell on the landlord. |
| Keywords: | demand externality, shopping externality, urban redevelopment program |
| JEL: | R12 R14 R52 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16925&r=ure |
| By: | Arranz, Ana Muñoz |
| Abstract: | Introduction: It has been stated that housing plays a major role in the process of integration of migrants and refugees into a society, as housing location, accessibility, affordability and habitability among other factors, have direct impact on the ability of inhabitants to seek employment and access education and healthcare. However, there seems to be little literature about the integration outcomes and the improvement of wellbeing after different housing policies and housing solutions have been implemented. This research aims at reviewing the existing literature regarding housing interventions of any kind for migrants in European Mediterranean countries, with a focus on inclusion related outcomes. Methods: A scoping review was performed including different sources of information. Results: The review analysed 26 records -comprising 103 housing projects- with various study designs. The housing interventions were categorised into eight main types: collective accommodation, camps, squats, flatsharing, full apartments in only-migrants buildings, full apartments in mixed population buildings, financial support for housing, and other non-material interventions. Each type of intervention showed different integration outcomes and good practices associated with it, which have been categorised into 13 domains. Conclusions: Measuring integration is complex due to various factors, including the absence of a consensus definition and its multifaceted nature. This review reveals heterogeneous and scant outcome measures and employing Ager and Strang's integration framework facilitates categorisation and understanding. The reviewed good practices often lack supporting evidence, but frequently noted integration facilitators include stable housing and support in employment, education and social relations. Overall, while widely recognised as vital, robust evidence on housing interventions' impact on migrant integration is lacking, calling for further research. |
| Date: | 2024–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:beh4s&r=ure |
| By: | Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Dijkstra, Lewis; Poelman, Hugo |
| Abstract: | While in recent times many regions have flourished, many others are stuck—or are at risk of becoming stuck—in a development trap. Such regions experience decline in economic growth, employment, and productivity relative to their neighbors and to their own past trajectories. Prolonged periods in development traps are leading to political dissatisfaction and unrest. Such discontent is often translated into support for antisystem parties at the ballot box. In this article we study the link between the risk, intensity, and duration of regional development traps and the rise of discontent in the European Union (EU)—proxied by the support for Eurosceptic parties in national elections between 2013 and 2022—using an econometric analysis at a regional level. The results highlight the strong connection between being stuck in a development trap, often in middle- or high-income regions, and support for Eurosceptic parties. They also suggest that the longer the period of stagnation, the stronger the support for parties opposed to European integration. This relationship remains robust whether considering only the most extreme Eurosceptic parties or including parties with more moderate levels of Euroscepticism. |
| Keywords: | discontent; euroscepticism; development trap; economic growth; employment; productivity; regions; EU; Taylor & Francis deal |
| JEL: | D72 R58 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–04–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122411&r=ure |
| By: | Andres Rodriguez-Pose; Zhuoying You; ; |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics are revolutionising production, yet their potential to stimulate innovation and change innovation patterns remains underexplored. This paper examines whether AI and robotics can spearhead technological innovation, with a particular focus on their capacity to deliver where other policies have mostly failed: less developed cities and regions. We resort to OLS and IV-2SLS methods to probe the direct and moderating influences of AI and robotics on technological innovation across 270 Chinese cities. We further employ quantile regression analysis to assess their impacts on innovation in more and less innovative cities. The findings reveal that AI and robotics significantly promote technological innovation, with a pronounced impact in cities at or below the technological frontier. Additionally, the use of AI and robotics improves the returns of investment in science and technology (S&T) on technological innovation. AI and robotics moderating effects are often more pronounced in less innovative cities, meaning that AI and robotics are not just powerful instruments for the promotion of innovation but also effective mechanisms to reduce the yawning gap in regional innovation between Chinese innovation hubs and the rest of the country. |
| Keywords: | AI, robotics, China, technological innovation, territorial inequality |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2412&r=ure |
| By: | Rajat Verma; Eunhan Ka; Satish V. Ukkusuri |
| Abstract: | The growth in availability of large-scale GPS mobility data from mobile devices has the potential to aid traditional travel demand models (TDMs) such as the four-step planning model, but those processing methods are not commonly used in practice. In this study, we show the application of trip generation and trip distribution modeling using GPS data from smartphones in the state of Indiana. This involves extracting trip segments from the data and inferring the phone users' home locations, adjusting for data representativeness, and using a data-driven travel time-based cost function for the trip distribution model. The trip generation and interchange patterns in the state are modeled for 2025, 2035, and 2045. Employment sectors like industry and retail are observed to influence trip making behavior more than other sectors. The travel growth is predicted to be mostly concentrated in the suburban regions, with a small decline in the urban cores. Further, although the majority of the growth in trip flows over the years is expected to come from the corridors between the major urban centers of the state, relative interzonal trip flow growth will likely be uniformly spread throughout the state. We also validate our results with the forecasts of two travel demand models, finding a difference of 5-15% in overall trip counts. Our GPS data-based demand model will contribute towards augmenting the conventional statewide travel demand model developed by the state and regional planning agencies. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.13211&r=ure |
| By: | Andres Gomez-Lievano; Michail Fragkias |
| Abstract: | There are many benefits and costs that come from people and firms clustering together in space. Agglomeration economies, in particular, are the manifestation of centripetal forces that make larger cities disproportionately more wealthy than smaller cities, pulling together individuals and firms in close physical proximity. Measuring agglomeration economies, however, is not easy, and the identification of its causes is still debated. Such association of productivity with size can arise from interactions that are facilitated by cities ("positive externalities"), but also from more productive individuals moving in and sorting into large cities ("self-sorting"). Under certain circumstances, even pure randomness can generate increasing returns to scale. In this chapter, we discuss some of the empirical observations, models, measurement challenges, and open question associated with the phenomenon of agglomeration economies. Furthermore, we discuss the implications of urban complexity theory, and in particular urban scaling, for the literature in agglomeration economies. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.13178&r=ure |
| By: | Philip Oreopoulos; Chloe Gibbs; Michael Jensen; Joseph Price |
| Abstract: | Mastery learning - the process by which students must demonstrate proficiency with a single topic before moving on - is well recognized as one of the most effective ways to learn, yet many teachers struggle or remain unsure about how to implement it into a classroom setting. This study evaluates a program to encourage greater mastery learning through technology and proactive continuous teacher support. Focusing on elementary and middle school mathematics, teachers receive weekly coaching in how to use Computer Assisted Learning (CAL) for helping students follow a customized roadmap of incremental progress. Results from two field experiments indicate significant Intent To Treat effects on math performance of 0.12 - 0.22 standard deviations. Further analysis indicates that these gains are from students in classrooms with at least an average of 35 minutes of practice per week. Teachers able to achieve high-dosage practice have a high degree of initial buy-in, a clear implementation strategy for when practice occurs, and a willingness to closely monitor progress and follow-up with struggling students. |
| JEL: | I2 J18 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32388&r=ure |
| By: | González González, Diego |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of childhood obesity on the academic performance and human capital accumulation of high school students using data from Spain. To address potential endogeneity issues, we exploit the exogenous variation in obesity within peer groups. Specifically, we use the prevalence of obesity by gender in students' classes as an instrumentalvariable for individual obesity. The results indicate that obesity has a negative impact on academic achievement, particularly on general scores for girls, cognitive abilities as measured by CRT scores, financial abilities, and English grades for both boys and girls. In addition, we found a negative impact of obesity on girls' mathematics scores, while boys experienced a positive impact. We identify several key drivers of these effects, including teacher bias, psychological well-being, time preferences, and expectations related to labor market discrimination. Our analysis sheds light on the multiple influences of childhood obesity on academic outcomes and highlights the need for targeted interventions. |
| Keywords: | Childhood obesity; Academic performance; Human capital accumulation; Cognitive abilities; Peer effects |
| JEL: | I10 I12 I15 I18 I21 |
| Date: | 2024–04–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:werepe:43822&r=ure |
| By: | Lukas Mahler; Minchul Yum |
| Abstract: | We use a human capital formation model to compare extending school time to private education subsidies in mitigating the adverse effects of school closures. The impact on inequality and mobility depends crucially on the substitutability between private and public inputs. |
| Keywords: | School Closures, Inequality, Intergenerational Mobility, Parental Investments, Substitutability |
| JEL: | E24 I24 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_539&r=ure |
| By: | Alessandro Caiumi; Giovanni Peri |
| Abstract: | In this article we revive, extend and improve the approach used in a series of influential papers written in the 2000s to estimate how changes in the supply of immigrant workers affected natives' wages in the US. We begin by extending the analysis to include the more recent years 2000-2022. Additionally, we introduce three important improvements. First, we introduce an IV that uses a new skill-based shift-share for immigrants and the demographic evolution for natives, which we show passes validity tests and has reasonably strong power. Second, we provide estimates of the impact of immigration on the employment-population ratio of natives to test for crowding out at the national level. Third, we analyze occupational upgrading of natives in response to immigrants. Using these estimates, we calculate that immigration, thanks to native-immigrant complementarity and college skill content of immigrants, had a positive and significant effect between +1.7 to +2.6\% on wages of less educated native workers, over the period 2000-2019 and no significant wage effect on college educated natives. We also calculate a positive employment rate effect for most native workers. Even simulations for the most recent 2019-2022 period suggest small positive effects on wages of non-college natives and no significant crowding out effects on employment. |
| JEL: | F22 J21 J69 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32389&r=ure |
| By: | Bhuiya, Md. MusfiqurMd. Musfiqur Rahman; Barajas, Jesus M. PhD; Venkataram, Prashanth S. PhD |
| Abstract: | We interviewed eight subject-matter experts in California in 2023 tounderstand how travel behavior and priorities may change in response to direct experience with road collisions. Expertsrepresented a variety of perspectives, including medical doctors, advocates for active transportation safety, and advocates for people with disabilities. Their diverse specialties enabled us to capture a variety of concerns without triggering emotionally sensitive areas for people who have directly experienced road collisions. These experts identified common themes, including mental stress from the prospect of returning to driving—especially on freeways, lesser incidence of long-term changes in travel modes after experiencing a collision, dependence on others for rides in private vehicles, and changing routes or times of day of travel when traveling independently. These experts also explained how people’s mode choices are also affected by general concerns about collisions in the news more than by specific personal experiences with near misses. Interview subjects’ spoke of more specific concerns as well. These included but were not limited to, bicyclists using sidewalks instead of bike lanes when both are present, feeling stigmatized from using public transit or paratransit after experiencing a collision, and concerns with motorists treating bicyclists badly. These initial interviewsclarify areas of focus and methodology for future qualitative and quantitative studies on the intersection oftransportation safety and travel behavior change, particularly as they involve people who have directly experienced road collisions. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Vulnerable road users, crash victims, travel behavior, traffic crashes, near crashes, mental stress, trauma |
| Date: | 2024–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt2gf1409z&r=ure |
| By: | Lee, Kyung Min; Kim, Mee Jung; Brown, J. David; Earle, John S.; Liu, Zhen |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the contributions of immigrant entrepreneurs to innovation in the U.S. using linked survey-administrative data on 199, 000 firms with a rich set of innovation measures and other firm and owner characteristics. We find that not only are immigrants more likely than natives to own businesses, but on average their firms display more innovation activities and outcomes. Immigrant-owned firms are particularly more likely to create completely new products, improve previous products, use new processes, and engage in both basic and applied R&D, and their efforts are reflected in substantially higher levels of patents and productivity. Immigrant owners are slightly less likely than natives to imitate products of others and to hire more employees. Delving into potential explanations of the immigrant-native differences, we study other characteristics of entrepreneurs, access to finance, choice of industry, immigrant self-selection, and effects of diversity. We find that the immigrant innovation advantage is robust to controlling for detailed characteristics of firms and owners, it holds in both high-tech and non-high-tech industries and, with the exception of productivity, it tends to be even stronger in firms owned by diverse immigrant-native teams and by diverse immigrants from different countries. The evidence from nearly all measures that immigrants tend to operate more innovative and productive firms, together with the higher share of business ownership by immigrants, implies large contributions to U.S. innovation and growth. |
| Date: | 2024–04–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:3kycm&r=ure |
| By: | Stefan Raychev (University of Plovdiv Paisii Hilendarski); Yuliyan Mollov (University of Plovdiv Paisii Hilendarski) |
| Abstract: | This article presents the cohesion policy in the EU and analyzes the role of decentralization for the sustainable development of the European regions at the NUTS 2 level. It examines the regional policy in the EU member states and its relationship with the decentralization and social progress of the regions. The study also covers sustainable urban development in Europe. Trends and effects of decentralization on economic growth and regional inequalities are discussed. A methodology based on statistical analysis is used to compare the social progress of European regions. A comprehensive approach is applied to reveal relationships and dependencies between indicators of a socio-economic nature within EU NUTS 2 level regions. In this sense, the methodology uses statistical software tools to reveal trends in the structural aspect of regional development and thus draw conclusions and recommendations for policies and measures aimed at increasing the effectiveness of fiscal regionalization. Incorporating principles of green economics into regional policy and decentralization efforts can drive the adoption of sustainable practices, such as renewable energy deployment, eco-friendly infrastructure development, and the promotion of green industries. The integration of green economic strategies within regional governance structures empowers regions to pursue environmentally conscious initiatives, contributing to the overall transition towards a low-carbon and resource-efficient economy. |
| Keywords: | Green transition, Region development, Social-progress index of regions, Decentralization, Cohesion, Sustainable development |
| JEL: | R11 Q01 R58 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:14115972&r=ure |
| By: | De Paula, Jônatas; Hosein, Tarick |
| Abstract: | The disproportionate increase in urbanized areas in relation to populations resulting in the spread of low-density urban settlements is recognized as a sustainable development challenge globally, including in Caribbean SIDS. This phenomenon has numerous adverse effects on urban settlements’ capacity to adapt to the impacts of climate change, such as the increased vulnerability of critical infrastructure to climate disasters; the formation of informal settlements in risk-prone areas; an increase in impervious surfaces affecting floods’ spatial patterns and increasing related risks; and the destruction of ecosystems affecting natural services critical to climate change adaption. Cognisant of these challenges, the 2030 Agenda proposed the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicator 11.3.1 —ratio of land consumption rate to population growth rate— as a global methodology to measure this phenomenon. This study utilizes this and other secondary indicators to measure urban expansion in Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago between 2000 and 2020, and to compare urban densities with other regions and Caribbean SIDS. The study concludes that the Urban Centres in these two countries have been expanding their built-up surfaces at a faster rate than the growth of their respective populations. In addition, the built-up area per capita in these countries’ urban settlements is significantly higher than in other selected Caribbean SIDS. The study concludes by suggesting critical implications of these findings for public policy in several sectors, and proposes additional questions for future research. |
| Date: | 2024–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col033:69166&r=ure |
| By: | Lee, Wang-Sheng (Monash University); Khalil, Umair (Deakin University); Johnston, David W. (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impacts of religiosity on criminal activity using a city-wide shock to religious sentiment from a 2015 Papal visit. Using daily data on all reported offences between 2010 and 2015 in Philadelphia at the census tract level and a difference-in-differences approach, we demonstrate significant reductions in less serious crimes in the week of the visit and for several weeks following. Reductions are particularly pronounced for drug offences and in historically Christian areas. Notably, similar crime effects are not found for President Obama's 2015 visit, suggesting changes in police deployment do not drive results. |
| Keywords: | economics of religion, deviant behavior, crime |
| JEL: | D74 I25 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16933&r=ure |
| By: | Steven N. Durlauf; Gueyon Kim; Dohyeon Lee; Xi Song |
| Abstract: | This paper studies long-run differences in intergenerational occupational mobility between Black and White Americans. Combining data from linked historical censuses and contemporary large-scale surveys, we provide a comprehensive set of mobility measures based on Markov chains that trace the short- and long-run dynamics of occupational differences. Our findings highlight the unique importance of changes in mobility experienced by the 1940–1950 birth cohort in shaping the current occupational distribution and reducing the racial occupational gap. We further explore the properties of continuing occupational inequalities and argue that these disparities are better understood by a lack of exchange mobility rather than structural mobility. Thus, contemporary occupational disparities cannot be expected to disappear based on the occupational dynamics seen historically. |
| JEL: | J15 J62 N31 N32 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32370&r=ure |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Rural regions across the OECD depend on a wide range of economic engines for growth, as well as the quality of place to attract and retain people. Social innovation seeks new answers to social and environmental problems, using new solutions that improve the quality of life for individuals and communities. Social innovation can be a tool to create vibrancy in rural areas by filling public service gaps, experimenting with new business models, and creating a stronger sense of community. However, not all rural areas are equally equipped to engage in social innovation. This paper provides guidance for policy makers and proposes an approach alongside a dashboard of indicators for measuring readiness and capacity to engage with social innovation in rural areas. |
| Keywords: | local ecosystem, measurement of social innovation, rural development, rural innovation, social economy, social entrepreneurship, social innovation |
| JEL: | I30 L31 O35 R11 O38 |
| Date: | 2024–05–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:cfeaaa:2024/4-en&r=ure |
| By: | Stone, Wendy; Veeroja, Piret; Goodall, Zoë; Horton, Ella; Duff, Cameron |
| Abstract: | This AHURI research examines the participation of social housing tenants in developing social housing policy. With tenants increasingly presenting with more complex health, housing and social care needs, developing ways they can participate in social housing policy can lead to a range of positive benefits: from improving the way housing and associated essential social services are provided to giving tenants a heightened sense of autonomy and a stronger sense of belonging within their communities. The guiding principle for tenant participation is that those most affected by a policy or organisational decision ought to be involved in the decision making process. Internationally there is a relatively well-established understanding that complex systems, such as social housing systems, require the viewpoints of multiple stakeholders and that evidence-based policy making is best supported by including diverse voices such as lived experience experts and advocates. Successful tenant programs include understanding that tenants and housing providers can have different ideas of what participation should look like and what it should achieve; programs can be compromised by power imbalances between tenants and housing providers, which can limit tenant autonomy and also lead to conflict. For policy co-design to work well, there must be respect and recognition of the expertise of all participants involved in the policy making process, which may require workforce training and changing cultural norms. The research proposes sharing of best-practice examples of tenant participation and program practice guidelines between housing organisations and across sectors through a new Australian Housing Clearinghouse model. |
| Date: | 2024–04–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ksx8j&r=ure |
| By: | Fays, Valentine (University of Mons); Mahy, Benoît (University of Mons); Rycx, François (Free University of Brussels) |
| Abstract: | This article is the first to examine how 1st-generation migrants affect the employment of workers born in the host country according to their origin, distinguishing between natives and 2nd-generation migrants. To do so, we take advantage of access to a unique linked employer-employee dataset for the Belgian economy enabling us to test these relationships at a quite precise level of the labour market, i.e. the firm level. Fixed effect estimates, including a large number of covariates, suggest complementarity between the employment of 1st-generation migrants and workers born in Belgium (both natives and 2nd-generation migrants, respectively). Several sensitivity tests, considering different levels of aggregation, workers' levels of education, migrants' region of origin, workers' occupations, and sectors corroborate this conclusion. |
| Keywords: | 1st- and 2nd-generation migrants, substitutability, complementarity, moderating factors |
| JEL: | J15 J24 J62 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16887&r=ure |
| By: | Chandra, Sonal; Chong, Terence Tai Leung |
| Abstract: | India has enacted several affirmative action policies since the 1990s to benefit the lower castes. This paper investigates if caste still affect an individual’s income in India today. Previous studies in this field have focused on specific regions or castes, and there is a dearth of pan-India empirical studies using panel data to investigate the relationship between caste and income. There is also a lack of studies that highlight the factors that help accentuate or ameliorate the caste-based income disparity in India. This paper addresses these gaps. The sample used for this paper is composed of respondents from all across India. Using the Indian Human Development Survey (IHDS) panel data, it is found that although the impact of caste on income has reduced, lower caste individuals’ income is still lower than that of their upper caste counterparts. The paper also finds evidence that the effects of caste on income are ameliorated in rural areas and that higher state-level GDP per capita and attainment of at least high school-level qualifications also contribute to reducing the impact of caste on income. Finally, this paper finds that the lower the caste, the stronger the ameliorating effect of attaining a high school-level qualification and state-level GDP per capita. |
| Keywords: | Caste; Income Disparity; India |
| JEL: | D31 J71 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–04–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120639&r=ure |
| By: | Jos\'e M. Gaspar |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of economic integration on spatial development in a model where all consumers are inter-regionally mobile and have heterogeneous preferences regarding their residential location choices. This heterogeneity is the unique dispersion force in the model. We show that, under reasonable values for the elasticity of substitution among varieties of consumption goods, a higher trade integration always promotes more symmetric patterns, irrespective of the functional form of the dispersion force. We also show that an increase in the degree of heterogeneity in preferences for location leads to less spatial inequality. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.09796&r=ure |
| By: | Kacker, Kanishka (Indian Statistical Institute); Gupta, Ridhima (South Asian University); Ali , Saif (Indraprastha Institute of Information Technology) |
| Abstract: | Will reducing traffic congestion bring health benefits? We use high frequency data from Uber for Delhi – a city that experiences high levels of air pollution and traffic congestion - to answer this question. Exploiting information by time of day for every day of 2018 at the neighborhood level that covers over 16000 possible trips during each of these time periods, we employ an econometric framework that models wind direction together with day, month, time-of-day and trip fixed effects to remove important sources of unobserved heterogeneity. Congestion has a non-linear, dynamic impact on pollution raising it sharply by over a standard deviation. The pattern of response shown by the results is consistent with known information regarding vehicular emissions and ambient air pollution, suggesting bias in the estimates to be low. Simulations using parameters from epidemiological studies suggest congestion may be responsible for up to 40% of all premature deaths from pulmonary and heart disease in Delhi. |
| Keywords: | air pollution; traffic congestion; vehicular regulation |
| JEL: | L91 O18 Q53 R41 |
| Date: | 2023–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunefd:2023_010&r=ure |
| By: | Silvia Angerer; Hanna Brosch; Daniela Glätzle-Rützler; Philipp Lergetporer; Thomas Rittmannsberger |
| Abstract: | We present representative evidence of discrimination against migrants through an incentivized choice experiment with over 2, 000 participants. Decision makers allocate a fixed endowment between two receivers. To measure discrimination, we randomly vary receivers’ migration background and other attributes, including education, gender, and age. We find that discrimination against migrants by the general population is both widespread and substantial. Our causal moderation analysis shows that migrants with higher education and female migrants experience significantly less discrimination. Discrimination is more pronounced among decision makers who are male, non-migrants, have rightwing political preferences, and live in regions with lower migrant shares. |
| Keywords: | discrimination, representative sample, migration, experiment |
| JEL: | C91 C93 J15 D90 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inn:wpaper:2024-06&r=ure |
| By: | Pablo Zarate; Mathias Dolls; Steven J. Davis; Nicholas Bloom; Jose Maria Barrero; Cevat Giray Aksoy |
| Abstract: | We use two surveys to assess why work from home (WFH) varies so much across countries and people. A measure of cultural individualism accounts for about one-third of the cross-country variation in WFH rates. Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US score highly on individualism and WFH rates, whereas Asian countries score low on both. Other factors such as cumulative lockdown stringency, population density, industry mix, and GDP per capita also matter, but they account for less of the variation. When looking across individual workers in the United States, we find that industry mix, population density and lockdown severity help account for current WFH rates, as does the partisan leaning of the county in which the worker resides. We conclude that multiple factors influence WFH rates, and technological feasibility is only one of them. |
| JEL: | E0 G0 L0 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32374&r=ure |
| By: | Cory McCartan; Robin Fisher; Jacob Goldin; Daniel E. Ho; Kosuke Imai |
| Abstract: | The estimation of racial disparities in various fields is often hampered by the lack of individual-level racial information. In many cases, the law prohibits the collection of such information to prevent direct racial discrimination. As a result, analysts have frequently adopted Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG) and its variants, which combine individual names and addresses with Census data to predict race. Unfortunately, the residuals of BISG are often correlated with the outcomes of interest, generally attenuating estimates of racial disparities. To correct this bias, we propose an alternative identification strategy under the assumption that surname is conditionally independent of the outcome given (unobserved) race, residence location, and other observed characteristics. We introduce a new class of models, Bayesian Instrumental Regression for Disparity Estimation (BIRDiE), that take BISG probabilities as inputs and produce racial disparity estimates by using surnames as an instrumental variable for race. Our estimation method is scalable, making it possible to analyze large-scale administrative data. We also show how to address potential violations of the key identification assumptions. A validation study based on the North Carolina voter file shows that BISG+BIRDiE reduces error by up to 84% when estimating racial differences in party registration. Finally, we apply the proposed methodology to estimate racial differences in who benefits from the home mortgage interest deduction using individual-level tax data from the U.S. Internal Revenue Service. Open-source software is available which implements the proposed methodology. |
| JEL: | C10 H22 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32373&r=ure |
| By: | Degrave, Anne |
| Abstract: | Informational capacity is widely viewed as a fundamental dimension of state power and a factor of economic development. However, there is little direct evidence on the consequences of historical investments in legibility. I analyze the case of the French Napoleonic cadaster, an ambitious land survey which aimed at equalizing the distribution of taxation following the Revolution. Exploiting detailed spatial and tem-poral variation over four decades and 2, 697 cantons, I find that the cadaster had little impact on state power, including fiscal capacity. In the long run, areas that received a centralized cadaster collect more taxes than others, suggesting that how information capacity is built matters for fiscal capacity. The cadaster also led to shifts in land use, promoting public works and the privatization of communal land, but had no clear impact on economic development. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:129320&r=ure |
| By: | Michael A. Clemens (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | Legal and illegal markets often coexist. In theory, marginal legalization can either substitute for the remaining parallel market, or complement it via scale effects. I study migrants crossing without prior authorization at the US southwest border, where large-scale unlawful crossing coexists with substantial, varying, and policy-constrained lawful crossing. I test whether lawful and unlawful crossing are gross substitutes or complements, using lag-augmented local projections to analyze a monthly time-series on the full universe of 10, 658, 497 inadmissible migrants encountered from October 2011 through July 2023. Expanded lawful crossings cause reduced unlawful crossings, an effect that grows over time and reaches elasticity -0.3 after approximately 10 months. That is, in this case, expanded activity on the lawful market substitutes for the parallel market, even net of scale effects. This deterrent effect explains approximately 9 percent of the overall variance in unlawful crossings. In an ancillary finding, I fail to reject a null effect of depenalizing unlawful crossings on future attempted unlawful crossings. |
| Keywords: | Labor Mobility, Immigrant Workers, International Migration, Illegal Behavior, Enforcement of Law |
| JEL: | F22 J61 K42 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp24-10&r=ure |
| By: | Leogrande, Angelo |
| Abstract: | The following article analyzes Italian companies with more than 10 employees that use online sales tools. The data used were acquired from the ISTAT-BES database. The article first presents a static analysis of the data aimed at framing the phenomenon in the context of Italian regional disparities. Subsequently, a clustering with k-Means algorithm is proposed by comparing the Silhouette coefficient and the Elbow method. The investigation of the innovative and technological determinants of the observed variable is carried out through the application of a panel econometric model. Finally, different machine learning algorithms for prediction are compared. The results are critically discussed with economic policy suggestions. |
| Date: | 2024–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:y3t4j&r=ure |
| By: | Nadeem Ul Haque (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad); Saba Anwar (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad) |
| Abstract: | The transport and logistics infrastructure plays a critical role in domestic commerce in facilitating buying and selling. In fact, transport infrastructure is the asset that increases the productivity of other players in the ecosystem like trucks (Baldwin & Dixon, 2008). |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:rrepot:2024:9&r=ure |
| By: | Pedro Teles; João Brogueira de Sousa |
| Abstract: | We study preferential tax schemes for high-skill immigrants such as those adopted in Europe in the past two decades. The overall assessment is negative. While they induce a very large immigration surplus tilted towards the low-skill, they may also give rise to an emigration deficit that more than offsets the surplus. The unilateral adoption is ambiguous in its welfare effects for both high- and low-skill workers, but the multilateral adoption is unambiguous in redistributing from low-skill to high-skill workers. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202321&r=ure |
| By: | Chakraborty, Debapriya PhD; Konstantinou, Theodora PhD; Gutierrez Lopez, Julia Beatriz MSc; Tal, Gil |
| Abstract: | The primary metric for measuring electric vehicle (EV) adoption growth is new car sales. However, to enable mass market penetration, EV adoption in the used car market will play a crucial role. The used vehicle market is relatively under-studied or has been studied mostly for specific regions. This project analyzed US national consumer expenditure survey data that tracks households' expenditure on vehicle acquisition and operation. The study aim is to understand new versus used vehicle choice behavior and the consequent cost of vehicle ownership, with the larger aim of determining how much households who generally buy used vehicles can gain or lose if they transition from a used internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) to a used EV. A choice model and cluster analysis showed that ownership of used vehicles is influenced by family size, income, housing tenure, and age. For lower-income renters, current vehicle ownership and purchase costs tend to constitute a high fraction of their household income, raising concerns related to equity and suggesting that these households in particular should be considered in policies to encourage the EV transition. Moreover, while at present the average price paid for a used ICEV is approximately $18, 000, the price of a comparable used EV can range between $14, 000 (e.g., lower electric range Nissan Leaf) to $50, 000 (high-range Tesla), suggesting the need for incentives to encourage the used EV market. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Electric vehicles, used vehicle industry, automobile ownership, households, choice models, operating costs |
| Date: | 2024–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3jh4f34x&r=ure |
| By: | Matthew A. Kraft; Melissa Arnold Lyon |
| Abstract: | We examine the state of the U.S. K-12 teaching profession over the last half century by compiling nationally representative time-series data on four interrelated constructs: occupational prestige, interest among students, the number of individuals preparing for entry, and on-the-job satisfaction. We find a consistent and dynamic pattern across every measure: a rapid decline in the 1970s, a swift rise in the 1980s extending into the mid 1990s, relative stability, and then a sustained decline beginning around 2010. The current state of the teaching profession is at or near its lowest levels in 50 years. We identify and explore a range of hypotheses that might explain these historical patterns including economic and sociopolitical factors, education policies, and school environments. |
| JEL: | I20 J21 J45 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32386&r=ure |
| By: | Martti Kaila |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of income-based criminal punishments on crime. In Finland, speeding tickets become income-dependent if the driver’s speed exceeds the speeding limit by more than 20 km/h, leading to a substantial jump in the size of the speeding ticket. Contrary to predictions of a traditional Becker model, individuals do not bunch below the fine hike. Instead, the speeding distributions are smooth at the cutoff. However, I demonstrate that the size of the realized speeding ticket has sizable but short-lived impacts on reoffending ex-post. I use a regression discontinuity design to show that fines that are 200 euros larger decrease reoffending by 15 percent in the following six months. After 12 months, the effect disappears. My empirical results are consistent with an explanation that people operate under information frictions. To illustrate this, I construct a Becker model with misperception and learning that can explain all the empirical findings. |
| Keywords: | deterrence, learning, optimization frictions, regression discontinuity design, income-based fines |
| JEL: | K40 K42 D83 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11064&r=ure |
| By: | Souza, Danilo; Maciel, Mateus |
| Abstract: | In the context of increasing violence, public security reforms are commonly advocated as a solution to the problem despite the lack of empirical evidence. We address this question by evaluating the effect of the Pacto pela Vida program, a comprehensive reform on the public security of the state of Pernambuco, Brazil. We document a reduction of 16 homicides per 100, 000 inhabitants following the program implementation. We show that a reduction in crimes occurring on the streets and associated with young males and firearm availability are likely to have contributed to the program’s effect. |
| Keywords: | crime, reform, policy evaluation, Brazil |
| JEL: | H7 |
| Date: | 2024–03–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120653&r=ure |
| By: | Katja Maria Kaufmann; Mark Jeffrey Spils |
| Abstract: | We analyze the short- and long-run effects of a policy change in Dutch secondary schools, which aimed at increasing the fraction of STEM graduates overall and in particular among previously underrepresented groups. Mandatory STEM hours were reduced in the STEM field, which is a prerequisite for enrolling in a STEM major at university. Hours decreased more strongly in the academic track (required for enrollment in research universities) than in the technical track (required for universities of applied sciences). Employing a difference-in-difference approach with Dutch administrative data, we find that the policy led to a significant increase in the take-up of the STEM field in high school, especially for women. In the longer-run, however, enrollment in STEM majors at university did not increase. Instead, after the policy change previously underrepresented groups, such as women and individuals from low-income families, were even relatively less likely to pursue a STEM degree. The decrease of women graduating from STEM was primarily driven by women with STEM parents, suggesting that it was due to negative signals about their preparedness for a STEM major. |
| Keywords: | STEM, curriculum change, major choice, educational, labor and family formation outcomes |
| JEL: | I23 I28 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_536&r=ure |
| By: | Kaz Miyagiwa (Department of Economics, Florida International University); Yoshiyasu Ono (Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University) |
| Abstract: | We examine the effect of international immigration on the host-country economy in the dynamic model capable of generating full employment as well as secular unemployment in equilibrium. It is shown that the effect of immigration depends on the host country's employment conditions and immigration magnitudes. If full employment prevails initially, a small inflow of immigrants boosts aggregate demand and improves welfare for host-country residents; a massive influx of immigrants leads to secular stagnation. If unemployment prevails initially, immigration always decreases aggregate demand and worsens unemployment. Furthermore, remittances by immigrants are always harmful to the host country under full employment but can beneficial under stagnation. |
| Keywords: | immigration, secular stagnation, unemployment, aggregate demand, remittances |
| JEL: | F16 F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fiu:wpaper:2403&r=ure |
| By: | Martha Friendly; Gordon Cleveland; Sue Colley; Rachel Vickerson; Carolyn Ferns; Carley Holt; Gabriel Eidelman; Spencer Neufeld (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | Child care is a necessity for millions of Canadian families, but has been hampered by the scarcity of cost-effective spaces. In 2021, the federal government made a budget commitment to provide parents with, on average, $10-a-day regulated child care spaces within the next five years. Soon after, it introduced the Canada-wide Early Learning and Child Care (CWELCC) program, implemented through federal–provincial/territorial multilateral agreements. With the notable exception of Ontario (and at one point Alberta), child care in Canada has not historically been delivered by municipalities. The CWELCC provides an opportunity for a significantly enhanced role for municipalities to increase access to quality child care as the order of government closest to those who are affected. The eighth report in the Who Does What series from the Institute on Municipal Finance and Governance (IMFG) and the Urban Policy Lab examines the role that municipalities can play in child care and their ability to fund, manage, and deliver child care in response to the increased demand. Martha Friendly reviews international precedents for federally funded and municipally managed and/or delivered child care with a view to learning from their experiences and considers the advantages that a heightened municipal role could play in strengthening Canada’s newest social program as it rolls out. Gordon Cleveland and Sue Colley investigate the roles and responsibilities of the different levels of government and how they will change in light of the CWELCC, with a focus on actions that Ontario will need to take over the next 20 years. Rachel Vickerson and Carolyn Ferns discuss how governments can play a role in addressing the dire need for early child care educators. Carley Holt proposes a roadmap for municipalities that brings stakeholders together to establish distinct approaches for their communities. |
| Keywords: | Canada, municipalities, child care, intergovernmental relations, children, CWELCC |
| JEL: | J13 J18 H70 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mfg:mfgwdw:8&r=ure |
| By: | Ballesteros, Marife M.; Lorenzo, Pauline Joy M.; Ramos, Tatum P.; Ancheta, Jenica A.; Rodil, Amillah S. |
| Abstract: | The Philippine government has promoted and institutionalized the delivery of basic services in resettlement sites through various flagship housing programs and the issuance of policies, guidelines, and/or standards. Existing literature suggests, however, that most resettlement sites lack the basic services and the social and economic opportunities to ensure the development of liveable and sustainable communities. The study notes that resettlement projects must be carefully planned in terms of both the processes and the physical design. Government laws and policies must be translated into clear minimum standards that are adopted at the national and subnational level. To formulate these standards, the authors reviewed existing local and international policies and guidelines on resettlement housing and examined the good practices in selected resettlement projects and among project implementers. The policy mapping and case study led to the identification of policy and implementation gaps, which were used in the development and refinement of the assessment tool for resettlement planning. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | social housing;resettlement projects;settlement planning;resettlement standards |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2024-02&r=ure |
| By: | Gubitz, Andrea; Toedter, Karl-Heinz; Ziebarth, Gerhard |
| Abstract: | Despite the "interest rate turnaround" initiated by the ECB in the second half of 2022 as a late reaction to the clearly underestimated persistence of high inflation rates in the euro area, real interest rates are by no means to be regarded as restrictive, neither in the ex post nor in the ex ante view. However, banks have been quite quick to adopt stricter lending guidelines, and demand in housing construction and mortgage lending has plummeted. Against this background, the paper discusses the importance of cash flow effects in annuity loans and in particular analyses the so-called front-loading effect. Accordingly, even if inflation rates are fully anticipated and real market and lending interest rates remain unchanged, higher nominal rates lead to strong additional financial burdens in the first phases of the typically mortgages with long maturities. Such liquidity effects can severely reduce the ability or willingness to pay of private investors in the household sector. This is particularly true for long-run loans in the form of a percentage annuity, as an additional maturity shortening effect occurs here. These types of fixed term loans are quite popular in Germany. Looking ahead, there is also a real risk to the stock of housing loans if there is a refinancing of the large stock of cheap housing loans, a risk that also has implications for macroeconomic and financial stability. |
| Abstract: | Trotz der von der EZB eingeleiteten "Zinswende" in der zweiten Jahreshälfte 2022 als späte Reaktion auf die deutlich unterschätzte Persistenz hoher Inflationsraten im Euroraum sind die Realzinsen sowohl in der ex post Betrachtung als auch in der ex ante Betrachtung keineswegs als restriktiv einzuschätzen. Die Banken haben allerdings recht rasch strengere Vergaberichtlinien beschlossen, und die Nachfrage im Wohnungsbau und bei den Hypothekarkrediten ist stark eingebrochen. Der Beitrag thematisiert vor diesem Hintergrund die Bedeutung von Zahlungsstromeffekten bei Annuitätenkrediten und analysiert hier vor allem den sog. front-loading Effekt. Danach führen höhere Nominalzinsen selbst bei vollständig antizipierten Inflationsraten und unveränderten Realzinsen zu starken finanziellen Zusatzbelastungen in den ersten Phasen der typischerweise langen Kreditlaufzeit. Derartige Liquiditätseffekte können die Zahlungsfähigkeit bzw. die Zahlungsbereitschaft der privaten Investoren empfindlich verringern. Dies gilt vor allem bei Darlehen in Form der Prozentannuität, da hier zusätzlich ein Laufzeitenverkürzungseffekt auftritt. Solche Darlehen sind in Deutschland recht populär. Mit Blick auf die Zukunft besteht auch eine reale Gefahr für den Bestand an Wohnungsbaukrediten, wenn es zu einer Refinanzierung des großen Bestands an günstigen Wohnungsbaukrediten kommt, ein Risiko, das auch Auswirkungen auf die makroökonomische und finanzielle Stabilität hat. |
| Keywords: | ECB, monetary policy, liquidity effects of interest rate policy, front loading effects, housing finance, mortgage |
| JEL: | G21 G51 E59 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hawdps:294836&r=ure |
| By: | Ben Ost; Weixiang Pan; Douglas A. Webber |
| Abstract: | We examine how a student's field of degree and institution attended contribute to the labor market outcomes of young graduates. Administrative panel data that combines student transcripts with matched employer-employee records allow us to provide the first decomposition of premia into individual and firm-specific components. We find that both major and institutional premia are more strongly related to the firm-specific component of wages than the individual-specific component of wages. On average, a student's major is a more important predictor of future wages than the selectivity of the institution attended, but major premia (and their relative ranking) can differ substantially across institutions, suggesting the importance of program-level data for prospective students and their parents. |
| Keywords: | College major; Higher education; Wage decomposition; Returns to institution; Firm effect; College premium |
| JEL: | I23 I26 I21 |
| Date: | 2024–04–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-18&r=ure |
| By: | Wibbenmeyer, Matthew (Resources for the Future); Joiner, Emily (Resources for the Future); Lennon, Connor; Walls, Margaret A. (Resources for the Future); Ma, Lala (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | The costs of natural disasters in the United States have increased in recent years, and, among disaster types, losses to wildfires have risen most sharply. The distribution of costs across households depends, in part, on household incomes and relative willingness to accept (WTA) wildfire risk. Studies have shown that households living in high wildfire hazard areas have higher incomes on average, but this could change with changes in risks, market environments (e.g., insurance), and regulation. In this paper, we use a discrete choice residential sorting model to study relative WTA wildfire hazard among households with different levels of income and wildfire experience. A spatial discontinuity in California’s natural hazard disclosure laws allows us to distinguish aversion to hazard, when it is made salient to buyers at the time of purchase, from preferences toward correlated amenities, such as forest cover. We have three core findings. First, regulatory disclosure matters. In areas where disclosure is required, households are averse to fire hazard. Second, aversion is increasing in income, which suggests that lower-income households may replace high-income households in high-hazard areas, raising concerns about distributional justice. Finally, individual experience with wildfire events does not increase aversion to hazard, suggesting that experience is not a replacement for disclosure in motivating informed decision-making. |
| Date: | 2024–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-24-05&r=ure |
| By: | Jinyong Hahn; Guido Kuersteiner; Andres Santos; Wavid Willigrod |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the testability of identifying restrictions commonly employed to assign a causal interpretation to two stage least squares (TSLS) estimators based on Bartik instruments. For homogeneous effects models applied to short panels, our analysis yields testable implications previously noted in the literature for the two major available identification strategies. We propose overidentification tests for these restrictions that remain valid in high dimensional regimes and are robust to heteroskedasticity and clustering. We further show that homogeneous effect models in short panels, and their corresponding overidentification tests, are of central importance by establishing that: (i) In heterogenous effects models, interpreting TSLS as a positively weighted average of treatment effects can impose implausible assumptions on the distribution of the data; and (ii) Alternative identifying strategies relying on long panels can prove uninformative in short panel applications. We highlight the empirical relevance of our results by examining the viability of Bartik instruments for identifying the effect of rising Chinese import competition on US local labor markets. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.17049&r=ure |
| By: | Pallabi Chakraborty (Tata Institute of Social Science) |
| Abstract: | I examine the association between the friendship-relative (FR) network and borrowings from market lenders in the context of Indian households. I explore various channels that may affect the observed associations, if any. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:indi23:01&r=ure |
| By: | Pedro Portugal; Hugo Reis; Paulo Guimarães; Ana Rute Cardoso |
| Abstract: | Do more educated workers earn higher wages partly because they have access to high-paying firms and occupations? We rely on linked employer-employee data on Portugal to combine the estimation of AKM models with the decomposition of the returns to schooling. We exploit exogenous variation in education driven by changes in compulsory education. We show that education provides access to better-paying workplaces and occupations: 30% of the overall return to education operates through the workplace channel and 12% through the occupationchannel. The remainder is associated exclusively with the individual. Match quality plays a modest role in the returns to education. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202322&r=ure |
| By: | Tibesigwa, Byela (University of Dar Es Salaam); Ntuli, Herbert (EfD - Environmental Policy Research Unit (EPRU) in the School of Economics at the University of Cape Town); Muta, Telvin (Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology (JKUAT) in Nairobi, Kenya) |
| Abstract: | We are living in a crisis era, with competing land-use for finite land and ill-informed myopic urban land-use policies that remain stagnant, in a world with rapidly changing urban environment, such as the mushrooming urban agriculture. While smallholder farms in and around cities, in sub-Saharan Africa, provide many ecosystem services including boosting household income and nutrition, access to land constrains these benefits. This paper examines the willingness to pay for urban farm plots, using a random parameter logit model. The estimation reveals that the marginal WTP for irrigation is US$19.47 per plot. With regard to plot size, households are willing to pay US$6.09 per hectare, while WTP for the distance to the plot is US$3.95per km per annum. WTP for an irrigated plot is about three times that of plot size and almost five times that of distance to the plot, a signal of adaptation to climate change due to extreme weather changes and water shortages in Tanzania. There is a high preference for mixed cropping, i.e., mixed vegetables and fruits. Approximately 10% of the households prefer purely subsistence farming, i.e., retaining all harvest for own consumption. The remaining 90% prefer semi-subsistence, where 57% would retain a quarter of the harvest for consumption, 27% would retain half and 6% would retain three-quarters, suggesting that farms would increase urban households’ food security. Our paper nudges policymakers to interrogate current policies and craft future inclusive green economy strategies that include urban agriculture and irrigation infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | land; urban farms; agriculture ecosystems; WTP; green economy; Tanzania |
| JEL: | Q57 |
| Date: | 2022–12–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunefd:2022_019&r=ure |
| By: | Ignacio Sarmiento Barbieri (Universidad de los Andes); Eric Chiang (University of Nevada); José Vázquez (University of Illinois) |
| Abstract: | As online course offerings become increasingly prevalent in institutions of higher learning, online assessments offer several key advantages, including reduced administrative costs, the ability to use a variety of multimedia resources, and faster results. To reduce the potential for academic dishonesty in online assessments, various proctoring solutions exist, though their effectiveness has not been studied in depth. Using randomized controlled trials, thispaper analyzes the role of human proctors used in online assessments, a preventative measure used in testing centers and classroom settings where students complete assessments online but under supervision. Moreover, we study the effect of self-reported test anxiety on exam scores, which can be heightened in the presence of a proctor, creating a negative effect on student performance. Our analysis also investigates the effect of proctoring and anxiety by gender andgrade point average to further explore the impact that proctoring has on student performance |
| Keywords: | Academic integrity, Proctoring methods, Test anxiety |
| JEL: | A20 A22 I20 I23 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:320&r=ure |
| By: | Thomas Goldring; Brian Jacob; Daniel Kreisman; Michael Ricks |
| Abstract: | In 2015, Michigan increased its Career and Technical Education (CTE) funding and changed its funding formula to reimburse programs-based student progression through program curricula. Although this change nearly doubled program completion rates, student enrollment and persistence were unaffected; instead, administrators accelerated student progress by reorganizing course curricula around notches in the new funding formula. As a result of response heterogeneity, 30% of the funding increase is transferred away from high-poverty districts to more affluent ones, underscoring how supply-side responses to loopholes shape the incidence of public services. |
| JEL: | I20 I21 I22 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32390&r=ure |
| By: | Joris Wauters (Economics and Research Department, National Bank of Belgium); Zivile Zekaite (Irish Economic Analysis Division, Central Bank of Ireland); Garo Garabedian (Monetary Policy Division, Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | The ECB concluded its strategy review in 2021 with a plan to include owner-occupied housing (OOH) costs in its inflation measure in the future. This paper uses the Bundesbank’s online household panel to study how household expectations would react to this change. We conducted a survey experiment with different information treatments and compared long-run expectations for euro area overall inflation, interest rates, and OOH inflation. Long-run expectations are typically higher for OOH inflation than overall inflation, and both are unanchored from the ECB’s target at the time of the survey. We find significantly higher inflation expectations under the treatment where OOH costs are assumed to be fully included in the inflation measure. This information effect is heterogeneous as, among others, homeowners and respondents with low trust in the ECB react more strongly. However, inflation expectations remain stable when information about past OOH inflation is also given. Careful communication design could thus prevent expectations from becoming more de-anchored. |
| Keywords: | Owner-occupied housing costs, survey experiment, inflation measurement, inflation expectations, ECB |
| JEL: | D83 D84 E31 E50 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:202405-449&r=ure |
| By: | Christoph Riedl; Tom Grad; Christopher Lettl |
| Abstract: | Crowdsourcing has evolved as an organizational approach to distributed problem solving and innovation. As contests are embedded in online communities and evaluation rights are assigned to the crowd, community members face a tension: they find themselves exposed to both competitive motives to win the contest prize and collaborative participation motives in the community. The competitive motive suggests they may evaluate rivals strategically according to their self-interest, the collaborative motive suggests they may evaluate their peers truthfully according to mutual interest. Using field data from Threadless on 38 million peer evaluations of more than 150, 000 submissions across 75, 000 individuals over 10 years and two natural experiments to rule out alternative explanations, we answer the question of how community members resolve this tension. We show that as their skill level increases, they become increasingly competitive and shift from using self-promotion to sabotaging their closest competitors. However, we also find signs of collaborative behavior when high-skilled members show leniency toward those community members who do not directly threaten their chance of winning. We explain how the individual-level use of strategic evaluations translates into important organizational-level outcomes by affecting the community structure through individuals' long-term participation. While low-skill targets of sabotage are less likely to participate in future contests, high-skill targets are more likely. This suggests a feedback loop between competitive evaluation behavior and future participation. These findings have important implications for the literature on crowdsourcing design, and the evolution and sustainability of crowdsourcing communities. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.14141&r=ure |
| By: | Yohannes , Dereje (Addis Ababa University); Lindskog, Annika (University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of positive and negative rainfall shocks on child labor in agricultural households in Ethiopia. We are the first to investigate how the presences of a public works program affect the child labor response to rainfall shocks. We also investigate heterogeneity with respect to access to local credit markets, and we use the timing of survey collection and Ethiopia’s two growing seasons to investigate both immediate effects of rainfall variation in the Belg (short rainy season) and more long-term effects of rainfall variation in the Meher (long rainy season). Using household panel data matched with geospatial rainfall data, we find the following: (1) the prevalence of child labor is higher after a positive Meher-season rainfall shock and lower after a negative one, in line with a productivity effect which dominates possible income effects. (2) The immediate impact of a negative Belg season rainfall shock is, however, to increase child labor, probably because tasks typically carried out by children, such as fetching water and herding livestock, take longer during droughts. (3) The PSNP mitigates the child labor effects of positive Meher season rainfall shocks. (4) Access to credit mitigates the increase in agricultural work hours but exacerbates the increase in household work hours immediately after a negative Belg season rainfall shock. |
| Keywords: | Rainfall shock; Child Labor; PSNP; Credit Market; Ethiopia |
| JEL: | J13 |
| Date: | 2023–12–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunefd:2023_017&r=ure |
| By: | Villalobos, Laura (Department of Economics and Finance, and Department of Environmental Studies, Salisbury University); Gomez, Julian D. (Universidad de Los Andes); Garcia, Jorge H. (Universidad de Los Andes) |
| Abstract: | High temperatures hinder learning. An e ective solution is to control the environment. However, technologies such as air conditioning are seldom adopted in developing countries. Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) are more widely available and could o er an alternative solution by increasing the amount of instruction, allowing the re-allocation of activities, boosting productivity, or improving the quality of instruction. Using data from Colombia, we con rm that heat a ects test scores, and we show that ICTs compensate up to 15 percent of this e ect when used by teachers to teach and for pedagogic purposes. |
| Keywords: | Weather and learning; Adaptation; Climate Change; Economics of Education; Information and Communication Technologies (ICT); Developing Country; Computer Programs |
| JEL: | H54 J24 O15 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2023–04–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunefd:2023_006&r=ure |
| By: | Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio; Özak, Ömer (Southern Methodist University) |
| Abstract: | We explore the effect of historical ethnic borders on contemporary conflict in Africa. We document that the intensive and extensive margins of contemporary conflict are higher close to historical ethnic borders. Exploiting variations across artificial regions within an ethnicity's historical homeland and a theory-based instrumental variable approach, we find that regions crossed by historical ethnic borders have 27 percentage points higher probability of conflict and 7.9 percentage points higher probability of being the initial location of a conflict. We uncover several key underlying mechanisms: competition for agricultural land, population pressure, cultural similarity, and weak property rights. |
| Date: | 2024–05–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:k76mt&r=ure |
| By: | Alberto Bucci (ICEA & DEMM, University of Milan); Lorenzo Carbonari (DEF, University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Giovanni Trovato (DEF, University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Pedro Trivin (DEMM, University of Milan) |
| Abstract: | Building on Lucas (1988), we develop a model in which the impact of population dynamics on per capita GDP and human capital depends on the balance of intertemporal altruism effects towards future generations and class-size effects on an individual’s education investment. We show that there is a critical level of the class-size effect that determines whether a decline in population growth will lead to a decrease or an increase in a country’s long-run growth rate of real per capita income. We take the model to OECD data, using a semi-parametric technique. This allows us to classify countries into groups based on their long-term growth trajectories, revealing patterns not captured by previous studies on the topic. |
| Keywords: | Long-run economic growth; Depopulation; Class-size effects; Human capital investment. |
| JEL: | J11 O11 O41 |
| Date: | 2024–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:575&r=ure |
| By: | Sergio A. De Raco; Viktoriya Semeshenko |
| Abstract: | In this paper we compare Skill-Relatedness Networks (SRNs) for selected countries, that is to say statistically significant inter-industrial interactions representing latent skills exchanges derived from observed labor flows, a kind of industry spaces. Using data from Argentina (ARG), Germany (DEU) and Sweden (SWE), we compare their SRNs utilizing an information-theoretic method that permits to compare networks of "non-aligned" nodes, which is the case of interest. For each SRN we extract its portrait, a fingerprint of structural measures of the distributions of their shortest paths, and calculate their pairwise divergences. This allows us also to contrast differences in structural (binary) connectivity with differences in the information provided by the (weighted) skill relatedness indicator (SR). We find that, in the case of ARG, structural connectivity is very different from their counterpart in DEU and SWE, but through the glass of SR the distances analyzed are all substantially smaller and more alike. These results qualify the role of the SR indicator as revealing some hidden dimension different from connectivity alone, providing empirical support to the suggestion that industry spaces may differ across countries. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.12193&r=ure |