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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Borraz, Fernando; Carozzi, Felipe; Gonzalez Pampillon, Nicolas; Zipitría, Leandro |
| Abstract: | We study how local grocery markets within a city are affected by changes in housing markets. Our empirical strategy exploits a shift in the spatial distribution of construction activity induced by a large-scale, place-based tax exemption in the city of Montevideo. The introduction of new housing stock induced by the policy causes a reduction in grocery prices of 2.3 percent and an increase in locally available product varieties. Using insights from a multiproduct model of imperfect competition and estimates for different types of stores, we show these changes are the result of incumbents' response to an increase in local demand. |
| Keywords: | (JEL L81; O18; R22; R23; R31; R38) |
| JEL: | R31 R23 O18 L81 R22 R38 |
| Date: | 2024–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:119854&r=ure |
| By: | Lepage, Louis-Pierre (Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | I evaluate the impact of Islamist terrorist attacks, taken as exogenous shocks which may change individual perceptions towards Middle Easterners and Muslims, on the real-estate market. Using detailed property-level transactions data, I find that US property prices immediately near mosques fell by 5% in the two years following 9/11. I find little evidence of changes in the number of transactions, but an increase of up to 30% in the fraction of Middle Eastern and North African households locating near mosques, indicating increased ethnic and religious sorting from 9/11. Additional evidence suggests that price decreases across areas are in line with increased prejudice. |
| Keywords: | housing market; terrorism; household sorting; discrimination |
| JEL: | J15 R30 |
| Date: | 2024–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sofiwp:2023_009&r=ure |
| By: | Steinhoff, Brigitte |
| Abstract: | The article outlines the critical situation of affordable housing in Germany, highlighting the government's goal to create 400, 000 new flats annually to address dwelling shortages. Despite this target, the actual construction completions in 2022 were only 295, 300, with projections indicating a decline to 175, 000 by 2025. This shortfall is attributed to rising construction costs, land prices, and interest rates, making it financially unviable for investors to offer affordable rents. The lack of affordable housing is primarily a distribution issue, with high demand in cities and conurbations leading to a cost spiral and financial burdens for low- and middle-income households. To combat this, federal and state governments have introduced subsidy programmes aimed at increasing affordable housing. However, investments in publicly subsidised housing are not seen as attractive due to economic viability concerns and psychological barriers, including prejudices and misinformation among potential investors. Moreover, there are community concerns regarding the development of affordable housing, often referred to as the "not-in-my-backyard" (NIMBY) syndrome. These concerns revolve around the fear of negative impacts on communities, such as the loss of green spaces, increased traffic, and potential social issues like crime and poverty. Despite these challenges, the article emphasizes the importance of affordable housing as a corrective measure in the housing market and the need for public awareness and debate on this issue. |
| Keywords: | Affordable housing, framing the issue of affordable housing, not-in-my- backyard, social acceptability, policy programmes in Germany |
| JEL: | M14 M38 R21 |
| Date: | 2024–01–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120455&r=ure |
| By: | Pereira dos Santos, João (Queen Mary University of London); Strohmaier, Kristina (University of Tuebingen) |
| Abstract: | Residency by Investment programs have become integral to contemporary migration policies, providing a distinct pathway for individuals to acquire a new legal status through financial investments. In this paper, we study the extent to which "golden visas" impact real estate housing markets. Using the population of transactions records from 2007 to 2019, we analyse the introduction of the Golden Visa Program in Portugal in 2012. We first present descriptive bunching evidence around the €500, 000 threshold, revealing potential price distortions. Merging the transaction data to property tax records, we then conduct a difference-in-differences analysis assessing the golden visa impact on the discrepancy between transaction prices and fiscal values. This analysis uncovers a "Golden Visa Premium, " where transaction prices exceed fiscal values by an average of around €38, 000 at the investment threshold, indicating a more than 10% price increase in high-end housing prices. Finally, survey data from the Portuguese population indicates widespread support for ending the program, particularly among the elderly, educated residents in Lisbon. |
| Keywords: | residency by investment, housing, Portugal |
| JEL: | R21 R38 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16857&r=ure |
| By: | Asmae AQZZOUZ; Nathalie PICARD |
| Abstract: | This study examines the influence of local taxes on household migration behavior between French municipalities (“communes”). We consider five tenure status categories and four categories of household head age. Our findings partially support Tiebout "voting with feet" theory, especially among young flat renters in the private sector, flat owners and social housing renters. A surprising result is related to the introduction of the municipality size in the regression, which dramatically affects the coefficient measuring the effect of local tax rates on migration probability. This suggests that a large part of the “Tiebout effect” usually found in the literature is an artefact caused by the spurious correlation between municipality size and local tax rates. |
| Keywords: | Residential mobility, local taxes, local public expenditures, heterogeneity, local amenities, life cycle. |
| JEL: | H71 H72 R23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2024-12&r=ure |
| By: | Grunau, Philipp; Hoffmann, Florian; Lemieux, Thomas; Titze, Mirko |
| Abstract: | We study the wage and employment effects of a German place-based policy using a research design that exploits conditionally exogenous EU-wide rules governing the program parameters at the regional level. The place-based program subsidi- zes investments to create jobs with a subsidy rate that varies across labor market regions. The analysis uses matched data on the universe of establishments and their employees, establishment-level panel data on program participation, and regional scores that generate spatial discontinuities in program eligibility and generosity. These rich data enable us to study the incidence of the place-based program on different groups of individuals. We find that the program helps establishments create jobs that disproportionately benefit younger and less-educated workers. Funded establishments increase their wages but, unlike employment, wage gains do not persist in the long run. Employment effects estimated at the local area level are slightly larger than establishment-level estimates, suggesting limited spillover effects. Using subsidy rates as an instrumental variable for actual subsidies indicates that it costs approximately EUR 25, 000 to create a new job in the economically disadvantaged areas targeted by the program. |
| Keywords: | local labor market, matched employer-employee data, place-based policies |
| JEL: | D04 H25 J21 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:289442&r=ure |
| By: | David Card; Jesse Rothstein; Moises Yi |
| Abstract: | We use detailed location information from the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) database to develop new evidence on the effects of spatial mismatch on the relative earnings of Black workers in large US cities. We classify workplaces by the size of the pay premiums they offer in a two-way fixed effects model, providing a simple metric for defining “good” jobs. We show that: (a) Black workers earn nearly the same average wage premiums as whites; (b) in most cities Black workers live closer to jobs, and closer to good jobs, than do whites; (c) Black workers typically commute shorter distances than whites; and (d) people who commute further earn higher average pay premiums, but the elasticity with respect to distance traveled is slightly lower for Black workers. We conclude that geographic proximity to good jobs is unlikely to be a major source of the racial earnings gaps in major U.S. cities today. |
| JEL: | J31 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32252&r=ure |
| By: | Neil Bhutta; Aurel Hizmo; Daniel R. Ringo |
| Abstract: | We assess racial discrimination in mortgage approvals using confidential data on mortgage applications. Minority applicants tend to have significantly lower credit scores, higher leverage, and are less likely than White applicants to receive algorithmic approval from raceblind government-automated underwriting systems (AUS). Observable applicant-risk factors explain most of the racial disparities in lender denials. Further, we exploit the AUS data to show there are risk factors we do not directly observe, and our analysis indicates that these factors explain at least some of the residual 1-2 percentage point denial gaps. Overall, we find that differential treatment has played a more limited role in generating denial disparities in recent years than suggested by previous research. |
| Keywords: | mortgage; mortgage approval; discrimination; mortgage lender; automated underwriting; credit score; fair lending |
| JEL: | G21 G28 R30 R51 |
| Date: | 2024–03–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:97985&r=ure |
| By: | Dan Ben-Moshe (BGU); David Genesove (The Hebrew University of Jerusalem) |
| Keywords: | Housing, regulation, stochastic frontier, real estate |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bgu:wpaper:2302&r=ure |
| By: | Francesco Chiocchio (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros) |
| Abstract: | How do property taxes affect house prices, homeownership, and welfare? I focus on Italy, a country with high homeownership, an outdated property tax system, and failed reform attempts. As in many other countries, owner-occupied houses are exempt from property taxes in Italy. Additionally, property taxes are calculated using outdated cadastral values. I show that using cadastral values creates a regressive property tax since cadastral values are relatively lower for more expensive housing units. I develop a life-cycle model with endogenous homeownership to assess the effects of reforming the current system. My findings show that removing the owner-occupied exemption and adjusting cadastral values to market values increases government property tax revenues as a percentage of GDP by over 0.8 percentage points but also increases homeownership rates by 1.2 percentage points. The increase in homeownership results from lower property tax rates on smaller houses. Finally, I show that in the short run, the reform increases the welfare of young households but lowers the welfare of older ones. In the long run, welfare increases for new generations. Higher welfare is mainly due to the decrease in house prices in equilibrium. |
| Keywords: | Property taxes and assessment, housing markets, homeownership, wealth accumulation and bequests. |
| JEL: | D15 H24 H31 R21 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2024_2404&r=ure |
| By: | Geoff Boeing; Jaehyun Ha |
| Abstract: | Street networks allow people and goods to move through cities, but they are vulnerable to disasters like floods, earthquakes, and terrorist attacks. Well-planned network design can make a city more resilient and robust to such disruptions, but we still know little about worldwide patterns of vulnerability, or worldwide empirical relationships between specific design characteristics and resilience. This study quantifies and measures the vulnerability of the street networks of every urban area in the world then models the relationships between vulnerability and street network design characteristics. To do so, we simulate over 2.4 billion trips across more than 8, 000 urban areas in 178 countries, while also simulating network disruption events representing floods, earthquakes, and targeted attacks. We find that disrupting high-centrality nodes severely impacts network function. All else equal, networks with higher connectivity, fewer chokepoints, or less circuity are less vulnerable to disruption's impacts. This study thus contributes a new global understanding of network design and vulnerability to the literature. We argue that these design characteristics offer high leverage points for street network resilience and robustness that planners should emphasize when designing or retrofitting urban networks. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2403.10636&r=ure |
| By: | van Lent, Max (Leiden University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the relationship between the creative abilities of study peers and academic achievement. We conduct a novel large scale field experiment at university, where students are randomized into work groups based on their score on a creativity test prior to university entry. We first show that the creative abilities of peers matter for a student's academic achievement. A one standard deviation higher creativity peer group improves study performance by 8.4 to 10 percentage points. Notably, this effect is driven by the average group creativity, there is no special impact of creative superstars. Further analysis suggests that students exposed to creative peers become more creative, but do not adjust their overall study effort. This is in line with the idea that creative approaches and questions of peers help students to master the study material better. Overall, our study highlights the importance of peer effects of creative students in shaping academic outcomes. |
| Keywords: | peer effects, academic achievement, creativity, field experiment |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16847&r=ure |
| By: | Steinhoff, Brigitte |
| Abstract: | Affordable housing is rare in many German cities and municipalities. Publicly social housing in terms of its quality, sustainability, and affordability is a contemporary issue which is more relevant than ever. The federal and state governments have initiated subsidy programs to increase social housing units, but private investors have been hesitant due to perceived economic risks and psychological barriers. Psychological barriers to investment in affordable housing exist and are significant. Prejudices are prevalent and, together with misinformation, lead to misperceptions among potential investors. Besides investors' concerns and doubts, the population and neighbourhood of affordable housing projects have their doubts and fears. The paper deals with the question of how society deals with new affordable housing and what is the impact on people and society in Germany. Expert interviews provide information about the knowledge base on social acceptability of new affordable housing. The study offers a unique opportunity to understand personal attitudes towards new low- and moderate-income housing. The findings show that there is a basic understanding of affordable housing. Through meticulous execution, it yields dependable statistics on experts' opinions and behaviours. The findings serve as a crucial basis for making informed decisions and guiding future research initiatives within the affordable housing sector. |
| Keywords: | Affordable housing; Germany; publicly social new rental housing; framing the issue of affordable housing; not-in-my-backyard; social acceptability |
| JEL: | M14 M38 R21 |
| Date: | 2024–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120448&r=ure |
| By: | Paul S. Willen |
| Abstract: | Rising rents, often attributed to a shortage of available housing, spotlight the urgent need to accelerate housing construction, particularly in Boston and other “superstar cities” where rents have been rising acutely. This report looks at the potential efficacy and costs of one particular policy option to jump-start residential construction: incentivizing developers to build by granting them tax abatements for new construction. |
| Keywords: | tax abatement; housing supply; Housing - Boston |
| JEL: | H20 |
| Date: | 2024–03–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbcq:97983&r=ure |
| By: | Neil Bhutta (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Andreas Fuster (École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne; Swiss Finance Institute; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)); Aurel Hizmo (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) |
| Abstract: | Comparing mortgage rates that borrowers obtain to rates that lenders could offer for the same loan, we find that many homeowners significantly overpay for their mortgage, with overpayment varying across borrower types and with market interest rates. Survey data reveal that borrowers' mortgage knowledge and shopping behavior strongly correlate with the rates they secure. We also document substantial variation in how expensive and profitable lenders are, without any evidence that expensive loans are associated with a better borrower experience. Despite many lenders operating in the US mortgage market, limited borrower sophistication may provide lenders with market power. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2421&r=ure |
| By: | Boeing, Geoff (Northeastern University); Ha, Jaehyun |
| Abstract: | Street networks allow people and goods to move through cities, but they are vulnerable to disasters like floods, earthquakes, and terrorist attacks. Well-planned network design can make a city more resilient and robust to such disruptions, but we still know little about worldwide patterns of vulnerability, or worldwide empirical relationships between specific design characteristics and resilience. This study quantifies and measures the vulnerability of the street networks of every urban area in the world then models the relationships between vulnerability and street network design characteristics. To do so, we simulate over 2.4 billion trips across more than 8, 000 urban areas in 178 countries, while also simulating network disruption events representing floods, earthquakes, and targeted attacks. We find that disrupting high-centrality nodes severely impacts network function. All else equal, networks with higher connectivity, fewer chokepoints, or less circuity are less vulnerable to disruption's impacts. This study thus contributes a new global understanding of network design and vulnerability to the literature. We argue that these design characteristics offer high leverage points for street network resilience and robustness that planners should emphasize when designing or retrofitting urban networks. |
| Date: | 2024–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:tk93y&r=ure |
| By: | Athira Vinod |
| Abstract: | Under the Right to Education Act (2009), the Indian government introduced a policy that required private schools to reserve 25% of primary school places for children from socially disadvantaged households. This paper examines the impact of the RTE Act’s reservation policy on private school expenditure by socially disadvantaged households. Leveraging the age of school entry and using a difference-in-difference approach, this paper finds a significant decrease in private school fees for disadvantaged children post-policy. This reduction is more pronounced in districts with higher enrolment rates under the policy. The change is attributed to a rise in low-cost private schools post-policy, facilitating cheaper education for disadvantaged students. Moreover, there exists a strong correlation between the growth of low-cost schools and increased policy enrolments at the district level. |
| Keywords: | Private schools, Disadvantaged groups, Right to Education Act, Reservation policy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notcre:24/02&r=ure |
| By: | Dominik Boddin; Daniel Marcel te Kaat; Chang Ma; Alessandro Rebucci |
| Abstract: | We document a housing portfolio channel of quantitative easing (QE) transmission exploiting variation in German household data in a difference-in-differences setting around QE adoption in 2015. We find that QE encourages households with larger initial bond positions to rebalance more toward second homes. Rebalancing is especially pronounced among higher-income and church-affiliated households with stronger tax incentives to purchase and rent out properties. We also show that, in regions more exposed to this channel, house prices increase more than rents, and sale listings decrease more than rental ones, suggesting that the rental supply may increase in response to QE. |
| JEL: | E0 G11 R0 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32211&r=ure |
| By: | Gough, Ian; Horn, Stefan; Rogers, Charlotte; Tunstall, Rebecca |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses a neglected aspect of the UK housing crisis: how to rapidly but fairly decarbonise the housing stock to meet tough net zero targets while meeting housing needs of the entire population. To do so the authors adopt a radical approach based on sufficiency. The sufficiency approach is based on determining both a housing floor – a decent minimum standard for all – and a housing ceiling - above which lies unsustainable excess. The authors define these thresholds in terms of bedrooms and floorspace and analyse the distribution of housing in England. They find that excess housing is widespread, concentrated in home ownership, particularly outright ownership, and characterised by above average emissions per square metre. They conclude that current policies based solely on energy efficiency and increasing housing supply cannot achieve agreed decarbonisation goals while securing decent accommodation for those who are housing deprived. To do this will require new policies that distinguish between sufficient and excess housing and more effective use of the housing stock to meet housing needs within planetary boundaries. |
| Keywords: | sufficiency; fair decarbonisation; minima-floors; maximaceilings; excess housing; housing distribution; sufficiency policy |
| JEL: | R21 |
| Date: | 2024–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122477&r=ure |
| By: | Emanuele Bacchiocchi; Andrea Bastianin; Graziano Moramarco |
| Abstract: | We estimate the short-run effects of severe weather shocks on local economic activity and assess cross-border spillovers operating through economic linkages between U.S. states. We measure weather shocks using a detailed county-level database on emergency declarations triggered by natural disasters and estimate their impacts with a monthly Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model for the U.S. states. Impulse responses highlight significant country-wide macroeconomic effects of weather shocks hitting individual regions. We also show that (i) taking into account economic interconnections between states allows capturing much stronger spillover effects than those associated with mere spatial adjacency, (ii) geographical heterogeneity is critical for assessing country-wide effects of weather shocks, and (iii) network effects amplify the local impacts of these shocks. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2403.10907&r=ure |
| By: | Dinarte Diaz, Lelys (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Globally, 150 million adolescents report being victims of or engaging in peer-to-peer violence in and around school. One strategy to reduce this risk is to occupy youth in after-school programs (ASP). Yet, the question remains: how does peer group composition affect the effectiveness of an ASP? I address this question by randomly assigning youths to either a control, homogeneous, or heterogeneous peer group within an ASP implemented in El Salvador. I find that, unlike homogeneous groups, heterogeneous peer groups do help students avoid violence. These results are relevant to public policy discussions on optimal group composition for violence reduction programs. |
| Keywords: | peer effects, violence, integration, tracking, after-school programs |
| JEL: | I29 K42 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16830&r=ure |
| By: | Essbaumer, Elisabeth |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes peer effects at the University of St. Gallen (HSG) in Switzerland. The identification strategy relies on randomized student groups to investigate how graduates’ outcomes are affected by the social composition of their peer groups. The results indicate that a 10 percentage points higher share of peers with low socio-economic status (SES) leads to a 5.08% increase in graduates’ income one year after graduation. The effect is strongest on other low-SES students and functions through an adoption of job searching behavior, occupational choices and labor supply. I do not find evidence in this sample that the outcomes of low-SES students are negatively affected by high-SES peer exposure. |
| Keywords: | peer effects, social mobility, human capital, educational mobility |
| JEL: | D64 J62 I24 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usg:econwp:2024:01&r=ure |
| By: | Andrew Garin; Jonathan L. Rothbaum |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the long-run effects of government-led construction of manufacturing plants on the regions where they were built and on individuals from those regions. Specifically, we examine publicly financed plants built in dispersed locations outside of major urban centers for security reasons during the United States' industrial mobilization for World War II. Wartime plant construction had large and persistent impacts on local development, characterized by an expansion of relatively high-wage manufacturing employment throughout the postwar era. These benefits were shared by incumbent residents; we find men born before WWII in counties where plants were built earned $1, 200 (in 2020 dollars) or 2.5 percent more per year in adulthood relative to those born in counterfactual comparison regions, with larger benefits accruing to children of lower-income parents. The balance of evidence suggests that these individuals benefited primarily from the local expansion of higher-wage jobs to which they had access as adults, rather than because of developmental effects from exposure to better environments during childhood. |
| JEL: | H56 J31 J62 N42 R11 R53 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32265&r=ure |
| By: | Misuraca, Roberta; Zimmermann, Klaus F. |
| Abstract: | A scarce literature deals with the consumption implications of cultural assimilation and integration, ethnic clustering and diasporas, the marginal propensity to consume, home production and allocation of time, ethnic consumption, migration, and trade, as well as native consumption responses. Consumption patterns reflect how migrants integrate into their new environment while preserving their cultural origins. The identity formation may also affect economic and societal relations between the involved countries. |
| Keywords: | ethnic identity, ethnic imports, ethnic niches, ethnic clusters, diaspora, ethnic goods, cultural assimilation, ethnosizer, consumption propensity, home production, allocation of time |
| JEL: | E21 J15 Z10 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1412&r=ure |
| By: | Suss, Joel; Kemeny, Tom; Connor, Dylan S. |
| Abstract: | Wealth inequality has been sharply rising in the United States and across many other high-income countries. Due to a lack of data, we know little about how this trend has unfolded across locations within countries. Examining the subnational geography of wealth is crucial because, from one generation to the next, it shapes the distribution of opportunity, disadvantage, and power across individuals and communities. By employing machine-learning-based imputation to link national historical surveys conducted by the U.S. Federal Reserve to population survey microdata, the data presented in this article addresses this gap. The Geographic Wealth Inequality Database (“GEOWEALTH-US”) provides the first estimates of the level and distribution of wealth at various geographical scales within the United States from 1960 to 2020. The GEOWEALTH-US database enables new lines of investigation into the contribution of spatial wealth disparities to major societal challenges including wealth concentration, income inequality, social mobility, housing unaffordability, and political polarization. |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2024–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122377&r=ure |
| By: | Lee, Neil |
| Abstract: | Two of the canonical approaches in regional studies are global production networks (GPNs) and evolutionary economic geography (EEG). Recent geopolitical and economic events have shown the importance of both theories in explaining regional economic change. Yet they remain discrete and separate, and there is now consensus that, together, they could explain more. A vibrant debate on the relationship between these two approaches is needed, starting with identifying unifying themes and areas of analytical difference, to develop a research agenda for future work which can better explain regional change. |
| Keywords: | complexity; evolutionary economic geography; global production networks; global value chains; relatedness; T&F deal |
| JEL: | D00 F23 |
| Date: | 2024–03–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121961&r=ure |
| By: | Desmond Ang; Panka Bencsik; Jesse M. Bruhn; Ellora Derenoncourt |
| Abstract: | We document a sharp rise in gunshots coupled with declining 911 call volume across thirteen major US cities in the aftermath of the murder of George Floyd. National survey data also indicate that victims of crime became less likely to report their victimization to law enforcement due to mistrust of police. Our results suggest that high-profile acts of police violence may erode community engagement with law enforcement and highlight the call-to-shot ratio as a natural measure of attitudes towards the police. |
| JEL: | K40 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32243&r=ure |
| By: | Felix Chopra (University of Copenhagen, CEBI); Christopher Roth (University of Cologne, ECONtribute, MPI for Collective Goods Bonn,); Johannes Wohlfart (University of Copenhagen, CEBI) |
| Abstract: | How do households adjust their spending behavior in response to changes in home price expectations? We conduct a field experiment with a sample of Americans that links survey data on home price expectations to actual spending behavior as measured in a rich home-scanner dataset. In the experiment we exogenously vary households' home price expectations by providing them with different expert forecasts. Homeowners do not adjust their spending in response to exogenously higher home price expectations, consistent with wealth effects and higher expected housing costs offsetting each other. However, renters reduce their spending in response to an increase in home price expectations. We provide evidence that the effects on renters operate through an increase in expected rental costs and higher expected costs of a future home that many renters intend to buy. Our evidence has implications for the role of asset price expectations in business cycle dynamics and consumption inequality. |
| Keywords: | Consumption, Expectations, Home prices, Homeowner, Information, Renter |
| JEL: | D14 D83 D84 E03 E21 |
| Date: | 2023–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kucebi:2303&r=ure |
| By: | Athira Vinod |
| Abstract: | Using longitudinal school data from India, this paper examines enrolment trends of socially disadvantaged children post the Right to Education (RTE) Act, which mandated the reservation of 25% of private school places for such children. Post-RTE, a significant increase is observed in disadvantaged children attending private schools. Difference-in-differences analysis reveals greater increases in schools previously below the 25% quota, especially those participating in the reservation policy. The results are however driven by a ‘substitution’ of places, where private schools are replacing free places under the policy with fee-paying disadvantaged children. |
| Keywords: | Private schools, Disadvantaged groups, Right to Education Act, Reservation policy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notcre:24/01&r=ure |
| By: | Lucas javaudin; André de Palma (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | Transport simulators can be used to compute the equilibrium between transporta- tion demand and supply within complex transportation systems. However, despite their theoretical foundations, there is a lack of comparative analysis between simula- tor results and theoretical models in the literature. In this paper, we bridge this gap by introducing METROPOLIS2, a novel mesoscopic transport simulator capable of simulating agents’ travel decisions (including mode, departure-time, and route choice), based on discrete-choice theory within a dynamic, continuous-time framework. We demonstrate METROPOLIS2’s functionality through its application to the single-road bottleneck model and validate its ability to replicate analytical results. Furthermore, we provide a comprehensive overview of METROPOLIS2 in large-scale scenarios. Fi- nally, we compare METROPOLIS2’s results with those of the original METROPOLIS1 simulator in a simulation of Paris, highlighting its speed and ability to converge to an equilibrium. |
| Keywords: | transport simulation; agent-based modeling; bottleneck; dynamic traffic assignment; discrete-choice models |
| JEL: | C63 R4 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2024-03&r=ure |
| By: | Ngai, L. Rachel; Sheedy, Kevin D. |
| Abstract: | This article documents the role of inflows (new listings) and outflows (sales) in explaining the volatility and comovement of housing-market variables. An “ins versus outs” decomposition shows that both flows are quantitatively important for housing-market volatility. The correlations between sales, prices, new listings, and time-to-sell are stable over time, whereas the signs of their correlations with houses for sale are found to be time-varying. A calibrated search-and-matching model with endogenous inflows and outflows and shocks to housing demand matches many of the stable correlations and predicts that the correlations with houses for sale depend on the source and persistence of shocks. |
| Keywords: | housing-market cyclicality; inflows and outflows; search frictions; match quality; Rachel Ngai acknowledges support from the British Academy Mid-Career Fellowship; Wiley deal |
| JEL: | R31 E32 R21 E22 |
| Date: | 2024–03–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121451&r=ure |
| By: | Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Bartalucci, Federico; Kurmanov, Bakhytzhan; Rau, Genadiy; Nigmetov, Kaisar |
| Abstract: | Growing disparities in wealth, well-being, and access to services in Kazakhstan have raised serious concerns among policymakers, especially since the January 2022 protests. This paper evaluates these regional inequalities and presents the findings from Kazakhstan’s inaugural well-being survey. The survey, based on global best practices, involves 4, 032 face-to-face interviews with a diverse sample across all 20 regions, ensuring representation. The resulting indices—the Subjective Well-Being Index and the Regional Well-Being Index—highlight both within-region and between-region disparities. Notably, the indices reveal significant variations in well-being, with certain regions reporting notably lower satisfaction levels across dimensions like trust in institutions, satisfaction with financial and housing conditions, health care and education quality, and personal security perceptions. |
| Keywords: | well-being survey; inequality; Kazakhstan; regional development |
| JEL: | P25 P28 R58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122341&r=ure |
| By: | Barbara Boelmann |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that the local availability of universities acted as a catalyst in the catch-up of women in higher education that has been documented for developed countries in the latter half of the 20th century. It uses the foundation of new universities in the 1960s and 1970s in West German regions which previously did not have a university as a case study to understand how women’s mobility and education decisions interact. I first document women’s low regional mobility in post-war West Germany along with their low educational attainment. Second, I exploit that the university expansion exogenously brought universities to women’s doorsteps in a difference-indifferences (DiD) strategy. Comparing regions which experienced a university opening within 20 km to those where no university was opened, I show that women benefited more than men from a close-by university opening, closing the local gender gap in university education by about 72%. Third, I provide evidence that local universities partly increased university education through reduced costs, while part of the effect is due to higher expected returns, highlighting an important second channel through which universities promote education to local youths. |
| Keywords: | college gender gap, geographic mobility, university expansion |
| JEL: | I23 I24 I28 J16 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_518&r=ure |
| By: | Berriochoa, Kattalina; Busemeyer, Marius R. |
| Abstract: | The rise of knowledge economies is transforming labor markets with substantial socio-political implications. Recent literature suggests that these economies foster voters who, due to the current or potential experience of upward mobility, are less likely to support far-right parties. Using novel survey data for the case of Germany, we examine this assertion by analyzing the association between the local share of knowledge-based economic activity and individual mobility perceptions and vote choices. We find that individual mobility perceptions are - somewhat counterintuitively - more negative in thriving local knowledge economies (LKEs). We also examine how these local economic contexts and mobility perceptions explain vote choices, focusing on support for the Greens and the right-wing populist AfD, finding that electoral support for the Greens is strongly and positively associated with well-developed LKEs and less influenced by mobility perceptions, while the latter matters more in the case of support for the AfD. Yet, we also find that thriving LKEs can reinforce the impact of static mobility perceptions increasing support for the AfD. Our analysis shows that LKEs, while a sign of positive economic growth, can also lead to friction between individuals with different perceptions of mobility likely reflecting the winners and losers of technological and labor market changes at the local level. |
| Keywords: | Political Preferences, Inequality, Knowledge Economy, Populism, Local Context |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cexwps:287740&r=ure |
| By: | Michela Carlana; Eliana La Ferrara |
| Abstract: | We study the Tutoring Online Program (TOP), where: (i) tutoring is entirely online; (ii) tutors are volunteer university students, matched with underprivileged middle school students. We leverage random assignment to estimate effects during and after the pandemic (2020 and 2022), investigating channels of impact. Three hours of individual tutoring per week increased math performance by 0.23 SD in 2020 and 0.20 SD in 2022. Higher-dosage yielded stronger effects, while group tutoring smaller effects. TOP enhanced students’ aspirations, socio-emotional skills and psychological well-being, but only during school closures. We also estimate the impact of TOP on tutors, finding increases in empathy. |
| JEL: | I21 I24 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32272&r=ure |
| By: | Ahmet Duhan Yassa |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of urban sprawl and urban mobility on long-term fuel consumption after the 2011 Van earthquake in Türkiye. Both province-level synthetic control and firm-level difference-in-differences (DID) analyses indicate a statistically significant increase in fuel consumption in Van after the earthquake, even though there was no dramatic change in the main determinants of fuel consumption in the province in this period. Findings from the satellite-supported population density images and sensor-level traffic density data reveal that rising population density in peripheral regions and increasing urban mobility within the province are the potential drivers of the rise in fuel consumption. While the impact of the Van earthquake on fuel consumption, the foreign trade deficit and greenhouse gas emissions was limited given the size of the city, the results highlight the potential impact of other major disasters that have occurred in the recent past and are expected to occur in the future. |
| Keywords: | Urban sprawl, Fuel consumption, Earthquake, Synthetic control, Greenhouse gas emissions, Trade deficit |
| JEL: | Q54 R11 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2401&r=ure |
| By: | Moez Kilani; André de Palma (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | We analyze spatial competition on a circle between firms that have multiple outlets and face quadratic transport costs. The equilibrium is a two-stage Nash game: first, firms decide on their locations and then set their prices. We are able to solve analytically simple multi-outlet cases, but for the general case, we require an algorithm to enumerate all non-isomorphic configurations. While price equilibria are explicit and unique, solving the full two-stage game requires numerical methods. In the location game, we consider two scenarios: either firms cannot jump one outlet over a competitors’ outlet, or firms have the flexibility to locate outlets anywhere on the circle. The solution involves a balance between cannibalization, market protection, and spatial monopoly power. We compare prices, profits, and transport costs for all possible configurations. With flexible locations, the firms’ market areas are contiguous. In this case, surprisingly, each firm acts as a spatial monopoly. If regulations enforce that each firm must set the same price for its outlets, head-to-head competition prevails, leading to decreased profits for the firms but to a better-off situation for consumers. |
| Keywords: | Spatial competition, circle, multi-product oligopoly, price-location equilibria, coin change problem |
| JEL: | L13 R32 R53 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2023-18&r=ure |
| By: | Leogrande, Angelo |
| Abstract: | In the following article I take into consideration the role of knowledge workers in the Italian regions. The analysed data refers to the ISTAT-BES database. The metric analysis consists of an in-depth analysis of the trends of the regions and macro-regions, followed by clustering with the k-Means algorithm, the application of machine learning algorithms for prediction, and the presentation of an econometric model with panel methods date. The results are also critically discussed in light of the North-South divide and the economic policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Innovation, Innovation and Invention, Management of Technological Innovation and R&D, Technological Change, Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital |
| JEL: | O3 O30 O31 O32 O33 O34 |
| Date: | 2024–03–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120550&r=ure |
| By: | Liu, Yi; Matsumura, Toshihiro |
| Abstract: | We formulate a duopoly model with international location choice in the presence of global common ownership. We theoretically examine how payoff interdependence caused by overlapping ownership such as common and cross ownership affects location and production choices, and resulting welfare. We find that positive payoff interdependence enhances international location diversification, which may improve global welfare. |
| Keywords: | Overlapping ownership; Transport costs; Welfare-improving production substitution; Spatial Cournot; Market-oriented location; Cost-oriented location |
| JEL: | F12 L13 R32 |
| Date: | 2024–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120495&r=ure |
| By: | Yutong Chen; Amalia R. Miller; Carmit Segal; Melissa K. Spencer |
| Abstract: | This chapter examines the impact of COVID-19 shutdowns on domestic violence (DV) in the United States. Despite widespread concerns that pandemic shutdowns could increase DV, initial studies found mixed evidence that varied across data sources and locations. We review the evolving literature on the effects of the pandemic and highlight results from studies that examine multiple measures of DV across a common set of large cities. These studies show that the conflicting early results are due to opposite effects of pandemic shutdowns on two measures of DV in police data: an increase in domestic violence 911 calls and a decrease in DV crime reports. In theory, this divergence can come from either higher DV reporting rates, possibly because of additional media attention to DV and greater third-party calling, or from lower policing intensity for DV crimes. Prior evidence from police data and other sources supports the conclusion that the increase in calls came from greater reporting, while the incidence of criminal DV decreased. Finally, we present new evidence drawing on police and hospitals records from across the state of California to show that DV crimes and hospital emergency department (ED) visits were both lower during pandemic shutdowns. |
| JEL: | I18 J12 J16 K42 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32259&r=ure |
| By: | Monica Deza; Thanh Lu; Johanna Catherine Maclean; Alberto Ortega |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of losing health insurance on criminal activity by leveraging one of the most substantial Medicaid disenrollments in U.S. history, which occurred in Tennessee in 2005 and lead to 190, 000 non–elderly and non–disabled adults without dependents unexpectedly losing coverage. Using police agency–level data and a difference–in–differences approach, we find that this mass insurance loss increased total crime rates with particularly strong effects for non–violent crime. We test for several potential mechanisms and find that our results may be explained by economic stability and access to healthcare, in particular mental healthcare. |
| JEL: | I1 I12 I13 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32227&r=ure |
| By: | Paolo Buonanno; Francesco Cinnirella; Elona Harka; Marcello Puca |
| Abstract: | Access to useful knowledge is crucial for fostering modern economic growth. We show, for the first time, that knowledge accumulated and stored in monasteries was useful for innovation. In 1866, anticlerical legislation in Italy led to the suppression of religious orders, the expropriation of their properties, and the transfer of their manuscripts to local public libraries. From a contemporary survey on public libraries, we construct a unique dataset on municipalities which received monastic volumes. This information is then linked to newly digitized annual data on patents issued in Italy between 1863 and 1883. Difference-in-differences estimates show that municipalities exposed to an influx of monastic manuscripts experienced a significant increase in innovation. The effect is driven by the increase in the number of manuscripts in previously existing libraries. We show that the innovation advantage also persisted in the long run and had no impact on human capital. |
| Keywords: | books, manuscripts, knowledge, religion, monastery, libraries, patents |
| JEL: | N33 O30 Z12 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11015&r=ure |
| By: | Mauricio Acuña; Roberto Alvarez; Cristobal Avarca |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study the pandemic's effects on the academic results of a group of university level students in a Chilean School of Economics and Business. We ask whether students from better socio-economic conditions outperformed those from poorer families. The hypothesis is that higher resources in terms of studying and living conditions, internet connections, and computer access would have contributed to increasing the gap among students from dissimilar backgrounds. Results obtained are consistent with this hypothesis, especially for those students coming from public schools. Using a differences-in-differences approach with fixed effects, we find an increase of about 40-50% in course dropping-out rates and about 30% reduction in course passing rates compared with students from private schools. Given the fact that some policies, mostly benefitting poorer students were implemented during the period, we can conclude that the gap could have potentially been even larger during the pandemic. We also find evidence showing that, after controlling for socioeconomic status, women and students with lower admission scores were less affected, while no significant effect was found between regular and special admission types. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udc:wpaper:wp556&r=ure |
| By: | Nathaniel Pattison (Southern Methodist University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role that late housing payments play in helping households cope with job loss. The key idea is that the ability to postpone housing payments often operates as a valuable source of informal credit for households facing income or expense shocks. Using a stylized model, I first show that late payments can reduce the costs of income shocks and offset the disadvantages of consumption commitments. I then empirically examine the prevalence and consequences of missed housing payments after job loss. Missed housing payments are common, especially among renters, and provide substantial liquidity during unemployment. Indeed, the amount of informal credit from missed payments exceeds existing estimates of formal credit card borrowing during unemployment. Lastly, I examine the consequences of missed payments. The large majority of missed payments do not lead to evictions or other forced moves. Instead, households are able to fall behind on housing payments while remaining in the same residence, consistent with missed payments providing an important source of informal credit. |
| Keywords: | consumption smoothing, job loss, housing, borrowing, credit, eviction, unemployment, household finance |
| JEL: | D14 E21 E24 G51 J64 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smu:ecowpa:2401&r=ure |
| By: | Choi, S.; Goyal, S.; Guo, F.; Moisan, F. |
| Abstract: | Social interactions shape individual behavior and public policy increasingly uses networks to improve effectiveness. It is therefore important to understand if the theoretical predictions on the relation between networks and individual choice are empirically valid. This paper tests a key result in the theory of games on networks: an individual’s action is proportional to their (Bonacich) centrality. Our experiment shows that individual efforts increase in centrality but at a rate of increase that is lower than the theoretical prediction. These departures from equilibrium are accompanied by significant departures in individual earnings from theoretical predictions. We propose a model of network based imitation decision rule to explain these deviations. |
| JEL: | C92 D83 D85 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–01–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camjip:2401&r=ure |
| By: | Bo Li |
| Abstract: | Empirical business cycle studies using cross-country data usually cannot achieve causal relationships while within-country studies mostly focus on the bust period. We provide the first causal investigation into the boom period of the 1999-2010 U.S. cross-metropolitan business cycle. Using a novel research design, we show that credit expansion in private-label mortgages causes a differentially stronger boom (2000-2006) and bust (2007-2010) cycle in the house-related industries in the high net-export-growth areas. Most importantly, our unique research design enables us to perform the most comprehensive tests on theories (hypotheses) regarding the business cycle. We show that the following theories (hypotheses) cannot explain the cause of the 1999-2010 U.S. business cycle: the speculative euphoria hypothesis, the real business cycle theory, the collateral-driven credit cycle theory, the business uncertainty theory, and the extrapolative expectation theory. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2403.04104&r=ure |
| By: | Rauh, C.; Valladares-Esteban, A. |
| Abstract: | In the US economy, Black men, on average, receive lower wages than White men, and the difference increases over the working life. The employment rate and the number of hours worked are also lower for Blacks, but the gap is nearly constant. Together these facts suggest that on-the-job human capital accumulation might explain the diverging wages. However, the wage gap and its evolution over the lifecycle cannot be explained by differences in accumulated experience or educational attainment for the cohort we analyze. Instead, the combination of experience and test scores measured at ages 17-22 accounts for the wage gap and its growth. We propose an on-the-job human capital accumulation model with heterogeneity in the initial human capital endowment and the lifelong ability to accumulate human capital, and endogenous labor supply at the extensive and intensive margins to explain the evolution of the Black-White wage gap over the lifecycle. We discipline the distribution of the ability to accumulate human capital using the power of test scores to predict earnings growth in the data. We find that if the pre-market distributions were the same for Blacks and Whites, the racial gap in hourly earnings would be closed by 84%, with the remaining gap opening throughout life due to higher labor supply amongst White men. That is, the unequal conditions with which men in the two groups enter the labor market are likely to be the key determinant of the differences over the lifecycle. |
| Keywords: | Employment gap, Inequality, Labor supply decision, Lifecycle, Racial gap, Wage gap |
| JEL: | J15 J24 J31 J64 |
| Date: | 2023–04–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camjip:2310&r=ure |
| By: | Xiaoming Cai; Pieter Gautier; Ronald Wolthoff; Pieter A. Gautier |
| Abstract: | This paper considers a random search model where some locations provide sellers with better chances of meeting many buyers than other locations (for example popular shopping streets or the first page of a search engine). When sellers are heterogeneous in terms of the quality of their product and/or the probability that a given buyer likes their product, it is desirable that sellers of high-quality niche products sort into the best locations. We show that this does not always happen in a decentralized market. Finally, we allow for endogenous location distributions and show that more trades are realized when locations are similar (in which case the aggregate matching function is urn-ball) but that quality weighted trade can be higher when locations are heterogeneous. |
| Keywords: | search frictions, spatial equilibrium, sorting |
| JEL: | C78 D44 D83 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10978&r=ure |
| By: | Gold, Robert; Lehr, Jakob |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that regional policies can decrease populist support. We focus on the "development objective" (Objective-1) of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), meant to support lagging-behind regions. For causal inference, we exploit three sources of quasi-exogenous variation in a Regression-Discontinuity-Design (RDD), a Difference-in-Differences framework (DiD), and with matching techniques. Using NUTS3-level panel data on the outcomes of elections to the EU parliament, observed over the period 1999-2019, we consistently find that Objective-1 transfers reduces the vote share of right-fringe parties by about 2.5 pp. Left-fringe party support is not affected. Complementary analyses of individual-level survey data from the Eurobarometer show that the European Regional Policy increases trust in democratic institutions and decreases discontent with the EU. |
| Keywords: | Populism, Regional Policies, European Integration, Regression Discontinuity Design |
| JEL: | D72 H54 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:287756&r=ure |
| By: | Tom Kirchmaier; Ekaterina Oparina |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the relationship between a police officer's workload and the likelihood of statement withdrawal of domestic abuse victims. We focus our analysis on high-risk cases reported to Greater Manchester Police from January 2014 to March 2019. Using this unique dataset, combined with institutional knowledge, we show that adding 10 more cases to a police officer's monthly workload is associated with an increase of the probability of statement withdrawal of 3 percentage points, or 17% of the average withdrawal rate in our sample. The increased workload is likely to be the outcome of a substantial reduction in the police budget, implying that this paper provides additional indirect evidence of the secondary costs of austerity policies. |
| Keywords: | workload, productivity, police, austerity |
| Date: | 2024–03–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1985&r=ure |
| By: | Kevin J. Mumford; Richard W. Patterson; Anthony Yim |
| Abstract: | What happens when college students are not able to enroll in the courses they want? We use a natural experiment at Purdue University in which first-year students are conditionally randomly assigned to oversubscribed courses. Compared to students who are assigned a requested course, those who are shut out are 40% less likely to ever take the oversubscribed course and 30% less likely to ever take a course in the same subject. While a course shutout is equally likely to occur to female and male students who requested the course, shutouts are much more disruptive for female students. In the short run, shutouts decrease the credits female students earn as well as their GPA. In the long-run, shutouts increase the probability female students drop out of school in the first year, decrease the probability they choose majors in STEM fields (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math), decrease cumulative GPA, and decrease the probability of graduating within four years. In contrast, shutouts have no effects on short-run credits earned, dropout, majoring in STEM, cumulative GPA, or four-year graduation for male students. Shutouts do have one large measurable long-run impact on male students—shutouts significantly increase the probability that men choose a major from the business school. |
| JEL: | I23 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11005&r=ure |
| By: | Dany Bahar; Rebecca J. Brough; Giovanni Peri |
| Abstract: | The inflow of refugees and their subsequent integration can be an important challenge for both the refugees themselves and the host society. Policy interventions can improve the lives and economic success of refugees and of their communities. In this paper, we review the socioeconomic integration policy interventions focused on refugees and the evidence surrounding them. We also highlight some interesting topics for future research and stress the need to rigorously evaluate their effectiveness and implications for the successful integration of refugees. |
| JEL: | H53 J15 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32266&r=ure |
| By: | Antona, Laura |
| Abstract: | Singapore’s labor-migration regime has come under much scrutiny for the ways in which it unequally positions employers vis-à-vis their migrant “workers.” One domestic worker, Rosamie, described the work permit she was issued as a “curse, ” as it bound her to her employers as property, leaving her vulnerable to exploitation and violence. Drawing on ethnographic research, this article argues that multiscalar geographies of bodily (dis)possession are produced by Singapore’s labor-migration regime, which shape migrant domestic workers’ everyday lives. By engaging directly with the concepts of possession and dispossession, this article reveals the ways in which migrant domestic workers are themselves rendered bodily possessions in Singapore; with the state, employers, employment agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and ghosts all involved in creating this dynamic. Indeed, as I demonstrate, the permanence, freedoms, and authority of both employers and (shelter-based) ghosts stood in stark contrast to the disposability, unfreedom, and powerlessness that domestic workers (particularly those residing in shelters) often experienced and felt. I also explain how domestic workers’ lack of autonomy and bodily (dis)possession was (re)produced at different geographic scales: within the nation, individual dwelling spaces, and the body. |
| Keywords: | ES/J500070/1; Taylor & Francis deal |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–03–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121458&r=ure |
| By: | MUKOYAMA Toshihiko; NAKAKUNI Kanato; NIREI Makoto |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the Japanese economy during the Great Recession period (2007-2009). The Japanese GDP declined considerably during this period, despite little exposure to the US housing market, and exports declined significantly. Motivated by this fact, we construct a multi-sector, multi-region, and small open economy model. Each region has a representative consumer, and regions and sectors are linked through input-output linkages and consumers’ final demand. We measure the export shocks in each region using trade statistics. Using our model, we quantitatively evaluate how the decline in export demand propagates throughout the country. We find that export shocks account for a significant portion of the GDP decline in many regions. To inspect the mechanism, we conduct counterfactual exercises in which the change in GDP is decomposed within and across regions, as well as within and across sectors. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:24038&r=ure |
| By: | Julius D\"uker; Alexander Rieber |
| Abstract: | We investigate how to efficiently set up work groups to boost group productivity, individual satisfaction, and learning. Therefore, we conduct a natural field experiment in a compulsory undergraduate course and study differences between self-selected and randomly assigned groups. We find that self-selected groups perform significantly worse on group assignments. Yet, students in self-selected groups learn more and are more satisfied than those in randomly assigned groups. The effect of allowing students to pick group members dominates the effect of different group compositions in self-selected groups: When controlling for the skill, gender, and home region composition of groups, the differences between self-selected and randomly formed groups persist almost unaltered. The distribution of GitHub commits per group reveals that the better average performance of randomly assigned groups is mainly driven by highly skilled individuals distributed over more groups due to the assignment mechanism. Moreover, these highly skilled individuals contribute more to the group in randomly formed groups. We argue that this mechanism explains why self-selected groups perform worse on the projects but acquire more knowledge than randomly formed groups. These findings are relevant for setting up workgroups in academic, business, and governmental organizations when tasks are not constrained to the skill set of specific individuals. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2403.12694&r=ure |
| By: | Marco Letta; Pierluigi Montalbano; Adriana Paolantonio |
| Abstract: | The complex relationship between climate shocks, migration, and adaptation hampers a rigorous understanding of the heterogeneous mobility outcomes of farm households exposed to climate risk. To unpack this heterogeneity, the analysis combines longitudinal multi-topic household survey data from Nigeria with a causal machine learning approach, tailored to a conceptual framework bridging economic migration theory and the poverty traps literature. The results show that pre-shock asset levels, in situ adaptive capacity, and cumulative shock exposure drive not just the magnitude but also the sign of the impact of agriculture-relevant weather anomalies on the mobility outcomes of farming households. While local adaptation acts as a substitute for migration, the roles played by wealth constraints and repeated shock exposure suggest the presence of climate-induced immobility traps. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2403.09470&r=ure |
| By: | MORIKAWA Masayuki |
| Abstract: | This study presents evidence on the use of work-from-home practice and its productivity in late 2023 when social and economic activity returned to normal after the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. The results generally confirm the predictions based on the analysis during the pandemic. Those who are productive while working from home have continued to use this workstyle and those who are less productive at home have returned to their usual workplaces. Although mean productivity at home has increased through learning and selection effects, productivity at home has not reached the same level as that of the traditional workplace. Therefore, adjustments in the percentage and frequency of remote workers are likely to continue for some time. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:24010&r=ure |
| By: | Lowe, Ricardo Henrique Jr.; irizarry, yasmiyn; Montufar, Shania; Vargas, Edward; López, Nancy |
| Abstract: | This study leverages sample data from the American Community Survey (ACS) to assess how changes to the 2020 race question influence the odds of multi-race classification for Black Latinos. Our results suggest that most Black Latino origin groups exhibit higher odds of multi-race classification in the modified race question compared to the pre-2020 race question. The reclassification of single-race Black Latinos as multiracial is particularly notable for Dominicans and Hondurans. Our findings also reveal that Black Latinos who provided multiple origin responses that are ethno-racially distinct (i.e. Nigerian and Panamanian) are nearly 21 percent less likely to be classified as multiracial in the modified race question. This finding suggests that the coding schemes used in the modified race question may be overclassifying single-race Black Latinos as multiracial. In fact, we find substantial drops in single-race Black Latino origin group counts between samples, which coincides with a relative surge in multi-race classifications. Ultimately, this study underscores the ethical consequences of misclassifying single-race Black Latino responses as multiracial while also emphasizing the broader methodological implications in how official changes to question wording and coding schemes lead to artificial population shifts that are not attributed to natural demographic change. |
| Date: | 2024–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5g6vs&r=ure |
| By: | Jelena Reljic; Francesco Zezza |
| Abstract: | We contribute to the long-standing debate on the Italian North–South divide by assessing the impact of public spending on social infrastructure - including education, healthcare, childcare and social assistance - on the gender employment gap over the last two decades, using a P-SVAR analysis. These investments, while not explicitly targeting women, may increase both their labour supply - by reducing the unpaid care work burden - and pro-women labour demand through job creation in care sectors that predominantly employ women. Our research reveals a positive and long-lasting impact of social infrastructure expenditure on private investment, GDP and employment in all areas of the country. However, the reduction of the gender employment gap is detected only in the South and among high-skilled women. These results stress the need for targeted policies to fill the investment gaps in social infrastructure, aiming for a more inclusive labour market, particularly in Southern regions, which suffer from chronic underinvestment and structural challenges. |
| Keywords: | Social infrastructure; Gender inequality; Fiscal Policy; Panel SVAR; Italian regions |
| JEL: | C33 E24 H30 J16 J18 J21 R58 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp246&r=ure |
| By: | Zepeda Gil, Raul |
| Abstract: | One of the main inquiry topics within crime and conflict studies is how inequalities or poverty fosters or deters participation in organised violence. Since the late 1990s, the increase in violence in Latin America has boosted the use of Global North criminology and conflict studies to explain this phenomenon. Although helpful, the question about the link between inequality and violence remains elusive. Instead, this research uses occupational mobility and life course approaches to analyse the latest Mexican inmate survey data. With this data, we can understand the factors behind youth recruitment into violent criminal organisations during the current drug war. The main findings point to youth transitions from school and low-skilled manual employment towards criminal violent activities as an option out of work precariousness. This research proposes researching transitions to organised violence as an occupational choice in market economies and post-conflict settlements as a possible causal mechanism that explains inequalities and violence. |
| Keywords: | Latin America; occupational mobility; conflict; crime; violence |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–03–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122539&r=ure |
| By: | Sarami Foroushani, Taraneh; Balali, Hamid; Movahedi, Reza; Partelow, Stefan |
| Abstract: | Sustainable access to groundwater remains a key challenge for local users, managers and policy makers, particularly in arid agricultural regions such as Iran. Identifying and assessing the status of diverse sustainability indicators using local knowledge can act as a step in the right direction for often invisible and hard to measure resources, especially when developed through inclusive approaches that include expert stakeholder inputs. In this article, we apply Ostrom's social-ecological systems framework (SESF) to assess how the local knowledge of key informant stakeholders can be used to assess the sustainability of groundwater resources on the Hamadan-Bahar plain in Iran. We evaluate the importance of each of the SESF’s first-tier variables based on 52 indicators attained from literature review and expert insights. Local knowledge is used to assess the sustainability status of each indicator through a survey of 22 key informants. For data analysis, we use the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and the Shannon Entropy methodologies to weight and rank indicators based on the data provided on their influence on sustainability. Findings suggest that the Resource System (RS) and Resource Unit (RU) indicators have the most positive influence on sustainability. In contrast, the Governance System (GS), Actor (A) and Interaction (I) first-tier variables were evaluated as less stable, along with Outcomes (O). This suggests that social factors and diverse outcomes may need further attention in the region to ensure management and policy development that can better enable sustainable outcomes. This analysis also demonstrates the usefulness of a comprehensive science-based framework for organizing, analyzing and presenting a wide range of complex information to inform policymakers and planners. |
| Keywords: | Groundwater management, local knowledge, knowledge co-production, sustainability indicators, socio-ecological systems (SES), stakeholder inclusion, water governance, commons |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:289209&r=ure |
| By: | Nadeem Ul Haque (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad); Muhammad Jehangir Khan (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad); Iram Nadeem (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad) |
| Abstract: | The role of universities has changed worldwide, moving away from the traditional model to one that is more contemporary and business-oriented. Universities are now acting as centers of advanced education and research, assuming the role of stakeholder organizations with greater administrative autonomy and ï¬ nancial independence (Bleiklie and Kogan, 2007). |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:rrepot:2024:5&r=ure |
| By: | Eva M. Berger; Ernst Fehr; Henning Hermes; Daniel Schunk; Kirsten Winkel |
| Abstract: | Working memory capacity is a key component of executive functioning and is thought to play an important role for a wide range of cognitive and noncognitive skills such as fluid intelligence, math, reading, the inhibition of pre-potent impulses or more general self-regulation abilities. Because these abilities substantially affect individuals’ life trajectories in terms of health, education, and earnings, the question of whether working memory (WM) training can improve them is of considerable importance. However, whether WM training leads to spillover effects on these other skills is contested. Here, we examine the causal impact of WM training embedded in regular school teaching by a randomized educational intervention involving a sample of 6–7 years old first graders. We find substantial immediate and lasting gains in working memory capacity. In addition, we document positive spillover effects on geometry, Raven’s fluid IQ measure, and the ability to inhibit pre-potent impulses. Moreover, these spillover effects emerge over time and only become fully visible after 12–13 months. Finally, we document that three years after the intervention the children who received training have a roughly 16 percentage points higher probability of entering the academic track in secondary school. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11010&r=ure |
| By: | Sari, Virgi; Tiwari, Sailesh |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the spatial heterogeneity in the human capital potential of Indonesia’s next generation by constructing and analyzing sub-national human capital indices (HCI) for 34 provinces and 514 districts in Indonesia. The paper identifies data and methodological constraints in the construction of these sub-national indices and proposes and implements strategies to overcome these challenges. Several interesting findings emerge from the analysis. First, Indonesian’s young generation can only achieve 53% of their future productivity relative to the full benchmark of health and education. Second, the variation in aggregate human capital potential across space in Indonesia is staggering: some parts of country are almost at par with countries like Vietnam and China while others have human capital levels that are comparable to Chad, Niger, and Sierra Leone. Third, differences in learning outcomes as measured by harmonized test scores account for the largest share of the variation in human capital across Indonesia, suggesting that the challenge of providing quality education remains one of the most important obstacles to equalizing opportunities for the next generation of Indonesians. And fourth, the correlation between government spending and performance on HCI at the district level appears rather weak, reinforcing conclusions reached by other recent studies that have highlighted the importance of focusing on the quality of spending. Finally, this paper also shows that Indonesia’s human capital registered a modest improvement from 0.50 in 2013 to 0.53 in 2018 with stronger progress observed among the already top performing provinces. |
| Keywords: | education; human capital; Indonesia; inequality; poverty; Springer deal |
| JEL: | I20 J24 P36 |
| Date: | 2024–03–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122167&r=ure |
| By: | Gergely Horvath |
| Abstract: | We experimentally study effort provision and network formation in the linear-quadratic game characterized by positive externality and complementarity of effort choices among network neighbors. We compare experimental outcomes to the equilibrium and efficient allocations and study the impact of group size and linking costs. We find that individuals overprovide effort relative to the equilibrium level on the network they form. However, their payoffs are lower than the equilibrium payoffs because they create fewer links than it is optimal which limits the beneficial spillovers of effort provision. Reducing the linking costs does not significantly increase the connectedness of the network and the welfare loss is higher in larger groups. Individuals connect to the highest effort providers in the group and ignore links to relative low effort providers, even if those links would be beneficial to form. This effect explains the lack of links in the network. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2403.05913&r=ure |
| By: | KONISHI Yoko; OGAWA Hikaru; IGEI Naoya; ITO Chiemi |
| Abstract: | Japan has a unique program called Furusato Nozei (tax payments to hometowns), which allows people to donate a portion of their taxes to their favorite municipalities in return for a gift. The program also provides a measure (called one-stop special measure) that allows donors to receive a tax deduction without filing a final tax return if they donate to five or fewer municipalities. This study verifies how this "limit constraint" measure, which sets a limit on the number of municipalities, affects donors' choices using the results of an original questionnaire survey on the use of the Furusato Nozei program in 2022. Clarifying the characteristics of donors by estimating a usage probability model, we examine the changes in donor behavior and the usage satisfaction for the program by donors facing the upper limit constraint. The analysis confirms that the limit constraint (1) suppresses the number of donation destinations and creates a clustering towards the upper limit level, (2) raises the donation amount per donation and decreases the number of municipalities receiving donations, and (3) leads to a decline in satisfaction with the program. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:24009&r=ure |
| By: | Nazir, Khurram; Lodhi, Muhammad Saeed; Ahmad, Zia; Ahmad, Saba |
| Abstract: | Pakistan is one of the third-world countries where technological adaptation is in its initial stages, with several initiatives/projects in the pipeline and others awaited to accomplish for setting the benchmark in their respective areas. Similarly, to meet the dire need for time, the communication sector is also working on advancements and automation in transportation by implementing Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) along its major highways. However, shifting from traditional to modern practices in the transportation sector has shown minimal progress; it has proven a tiresome and laborious process, putting the interest of foreign investors at stack as well. This research, therefore, is meant primarily to elaborate on the Barrier factors hindering the Effectiveness and Development of the Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) Projects in Pakistan and their addresses prudently by measuring their impact in terms of system, function ability, and potential benefits. The analysis will be made using the Partial Least Square technique of the "Structural Equation Modeling" method (PLS-SEM) by constructing and analyzing the data collected from various sources with the help of a questionnaire; the reliability will be established using the Crone batch alpha technique. The results demonstrated remarkable dependence on the Effectiveness & Development (E&D) of ITS on the failure of Policy & Governance, Financial and Technical drought, lack of Exposure and Infrastructure integration, and Rapid urbanization. |
| Keywords: | Intelligent Transportation System, Green Mobility, Sound infrastructure, Smart Mobility, Geographic Information System, Internet of Things, Project Risks. |
| JEL: | R42 |
| Date: | 2023–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120367&r=ure |
| By: | Leogrande, Angelo |
| Abstract: | In this article I analysed the trend of innovation in the production system in the Italian regions using ISTAT-BES data. After presenting a static analysis and innovation trends of the production system, I present a clustering with a k-Means algorithm optimized with the Silhouette coefficient. Subsequently, an econometric analysis is presented for estimating the determinants of innovation in production systems. Finally, the results are critically discussed with economic policy recommendations. |
| Keywords: | Innovation, Innovation and Invention, Management of Technological Innovation and R&D, Technological Change, Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital |
| JEL: | O30 O31 O32 O33 O34 |
| Date: | 2024–03–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120542&r=ure |
| By: | Pierre LESUISSE |
| Abstract: | Recurrently in the literature, we find that public spending on education has an ambiguous impact on economic growth. Using the World Bank’s World Development Indicators, we revisit an endogenous growth model of Blankenau et al. (2007), over the last thirty years. By integrating the fiscal impact on growth of public spending, we analyze the empirical relationship between public spending on education and economic development. We do not observe significant results among countries belonging to upper-middle and high-income groups. Using Data Envelopment Analysis à la Ji and Lee (2010), we compute a performance measure of public spending on education to generate human capital (measured through Expected Human Capital index from Lim et al. (2018) or Years of Schooling from Barro and Lee (2013)). Once we control for the performance of public spending, we find a positive and significant impact of increased spending on education. This is particularly the case in high performing countries. We then decompose public spending on education by level (primary, secondary and tertiary). We only find significant impact for primary education expenditure. |
| Keywords: | Education; Endogenous growth; Fiscal policy; Performance. |
| JEL: | H52 O11 O47 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2024-10&r=ure |
| By: | Chiovelli, Giorgio; Fergusson, Leopoldo (Universidad de los Andes); Martínez, Luis R. (University of Chicago); Torres, Juan David (Universidad de los Andes); Valencia Caicedo, Felipe (University of British Columbia) |
| Abstract: | We study the fiscal and political consequences of state modernization in the Spanish colonial empire in Latin America. We focus on the introduction of a new corps of provincial governors called intendants in the late 18th century. Leveraging the staggered adoption of the reform and administrative fiscal microdata, we show that the intendancy system sizably increased Crown revenue by strengthening state presence in the periphery and disrupting local elite capture. Politically, the reform reduced rebellions by previously exploited indigenous peoples. However, naming patterns reveal that the intendants heightened anti-Spanish sentiment among Creole elites, plausibly contributing to the nascent independence movement. |
| Keywords: | State Capacity; Taxation; Bureaucracy; Conflict; Elites; Colonialism; Independence; Latin America |
| JEL: | D73 D74 H71 N46 P48 |
| Date: | 2024–04–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021106&r=ure |
| By: | Francesco Avvisati; Janine Buchholz; Mario Piacentini; Luis Francisco Vargas Madriz |
| Abstract: | If test-takers do not engage with the assessment, the reliability of test scores and the validity of inferences about their proficiency may suffer. Test-taker disengagement is particularly likely in low-stakes assessments and, according to prior research, for certain types of students. But levels of engagement may also be related to aspects that test developers can manipulate, such as item characteristics. This paper investigates which item characteristics are associated with two indicators of test-taker disengagement, rapid guessing and breakoffs, in an international assessment of reading. Analyses of data from almost 500 000 students from 67 countries and economies that took part in the 2018 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) show that rapid guessing was observed mainly on simple multiple-choice questions. Breakoffs were more likely in the presence of idiosyncratic selected-response formats, such as hot spot or matching tasks. Both rapid guessing and breakoffs were more frequent on tasks involving long and complex texts. |
| Date: | 2024–04–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaab:312-en&r=ure |
| By: | Dražanová, Lenka; Gonnot, Jérôme; Heidland, Tobias; Krüger, Finja |
| Abstract: | Public attitudes toward immigration have attracted much scholarly interest and extensive empirical research in recent years. Despite a sizeable theoretical and empirical literature, no firm conclusions have been drawn regarding the factors affecting immigration opinion. We address this gap through a formal meta-analysis derived from the literature regarding immigration attitudes from the top journals of several social science disciplines in the years 2009–2019 and based on a population of 1185 estimates derived from 144 unique analyses on individual-level factors affecting attitudes to immigration. The meta-analytical findings show that two individual-level characteristics are most significantly associated with attitudes to immigration -- education (positively) and age (negatively). Our results further reveal that the same individual characteristics do not necessarily explain immigration policy attitudes and attitudes toward immigrants' contribution. The findings challenge several conventional micro-level theories of attitudes to immigration. The meta-analysis can inform future research when planning the set of explanatory variables to avoid omitting key determinants. |
| Keywords: | Meta-analysis, attitudes toward immigration, public opinion, migration, intergroup relations |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:287732&r=ure |
| By: | Landini, Fabio; Rinaldi, Riccardo |
| Abstract: | The article examines the drivers of migrant atypical employment in the manufacturing sector of the Emilia-Romagna region. By drawing on administrative data based on mandatory communications we document that, even in an industry characterized by high quality of productions and occupations, migrants have a disproportionally higher likelihood to be hired through either fixed-term or agency contracts compared to natives. We interpret this evidence through a set of alternative theories, including human capital theory, dual labour market processes, the use of precarious contracts as screening devices and institutional segmentation theories. The empirical analysis reveals that while migrant employment through fixed-term contracts is consistent with screening purposes, the hiring of migrants with agency contracts is driven by processes of institutional segmentation, through which employers shift the costs of flexibility to the most vulnerable and less organized segments within the labour force, such as migrants. Managerial and policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | job quality, migrant workers, manufacturing, nonstandard employment |
| JEL: | D22 J28 J41 L23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1409&r=ure |