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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Stefano Colonnello; Roberto Marfè; Qizhou Xiong |
| Abstract: | We build a granular dataset of residential property yields using rental and sale listings from a major German real estate platform. Equipped with more than 1.5 million property-level rent-to-price ratios, we document a novel heterogeneity puzzle. About one-third of dispersion in yields can be explained neither by an extensive array of property-specic observable features, nor by accounting for any possi- ble below-zip code-level time-varying factor through a richxed effects structure. Unexplained yield heterogeneity is sizable and economically signicant. Whereas property yields predict returns and rent growth rates, we show that their time-series variation largely originates at a highly local level. Our evidence may point to the importance of heterogeneity in investors' beliefs and preferences, as opposed to a battery of alternative explanations for which we directly test. |
| Keywords: | Housing, Rent-to-Price Ratio, Geographic Heterogeneity |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wpaper:716&r=ure |
| By: | Yoshifumi Konishi (Department of Economics, Keio University); Akari Ono (Graduate School of Economics, Keio University) |
| Abstract: | Economists are increasingly concerned with the heterogeneous impacts of transportation infrastructure investments on economic outcomes, particularly the phenomenon known as the gStraw Effect h: Core cities that were already in economic prosperity may gain more, and peripheral cities may lose, from large transportation projects. We empirically investigate whether such an effect manifests in the case of the Great Seto Bridges in Japan, a 70-billion-dollar project implemented as part of the gBuilding-a-new-Japan h initiative in the 1980s-1990s. We employ the recently developed recentered instrumental variable approach in the difference-in-differences design, exploiting the sharp decline in transport costs and its differential impacts on market access levels across cities of different economic prosperity as exogenous sources of variation. We find that, contrary to the straw effect, large peripheral cities gain more than core cities, rather than lose, from the megaproject. We also demonstrate that the distribution of winners and losers from the megaproject depends on where the associated cost reductions occur in the existing network structures. |
| Keywords: | Market Access, Transportation Investment, Core-Periphery Model, Economic Geography, Quantitative Spatial Model |
| JEL: | O18 R4 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–02–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:2024-003&r=ure |
| By: | Marie Hogan; Michael T. Owyang |
| Abstract: | While rent-control policies can mean more affordable housing for some, research shows they can also lead to a decline in the supply and quality of rental housing. |
| Keywords: | rent control; housing affordability; housing supply; housing quality; rental housing |
| Date: | 2024–02–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:97815&r=ure |
| By: | Tobias R\"uttenauer |
| Abstract: | This handbook chapter provides an essential introduction to the field of spatial econometrics, offering a comprehensive overview of techniques and methodologies for analysing spatial data in the social sciences. Spatial econometrics addresses the unique challenges posed by spatially dependent observations, where spatial relationships among data points can significantly impact statistical analyses. The chapter begins by exploring the fundamental concepts of spatial dependence and spatial autocorrelation, and highlighting their implications for traditional econometric models. It then introduces a range of spatial econometric models, particularly spatial lag, spatial error, and spatial lag of X models, illustrating how these models accommodate spatial relationships and yield accurate and insightful results about the underlying spatial processes. The chapter provides an intuitive understanding of these models compare to each other. A practical example on London house prices demonstrates the application of spatial econometrics, emphasising its relevance in uncovering hidden spatial patterns, addressing endogeneity, and providing robust estimates in the presence of spatial dependence. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2402.09895&r=ure |
| By: | Milena Almagro; Felipe Barbieri; Juan Camilo Castillo; Nathaniel G. Hickok; Tobias Salz |
| Abstract: | We characterize optimal urban transportation policies in the presence of congestion and environmental externalities and evaluate their welfare and distributional effects. We present a framework of a municipal government that implements different transportation equilibria through its choice of public transit policies—prices and frequencies—as well as road pricing. The government faces a budget constraint that introduces monopoly-like distortions. We apply this framework to Chicago, for which we construct a new dataset that comprehensively captures transportation choices. We find that road pricing alone leads to large welfare gains by reducing externalities, but at the expense of consumers (travelers), whose surplus falls even if road pricing revenues are fully rebated. The largest losses are borne by middle income consumers, who are most reliant on cars. We find that the optimal price of public transit is close to zero and goes along with a reduction in the frequency of buses and an increase in the frequency of trains. Combining these transit policies with road pricing eliminates budget constraints. This allows the government to implement higher transit frequencies and even lower prices, in which case consumer surplus increases after rebates. |
| JEL: | L0 L97 R0 R4 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32185&r=ure |
| By: | Dan Anderberg; Gordon B. Dahl; Cristina Felfe; Helmut Rainer; Thomas Siedler |
| Abstract: | What makes diversity unifying in some settings but divisive in others? We examine how the mixing of ethnic groups in German schools affects intergroup cooperation and trust. We leverage the quasi-random assignment of students to classrooms within schools to obtain variation in the type of diversity that prevails in a peer group. We combine this with a large-scale, incentivized lab-in-field-experiment based on the investment game, allowing us to assess the in-group bias of native German students in their interactions with fellow natives (in-group) versus immigrants (out-group). We find in-group bias peaks in culturally polarized classrooms, where the native and immigrant groups are both large, but have different religious or language backgrounds. In contrast, in classrooms characterized by non-cultural polarization, fractionalization, or a native supermajority, there are significantly lower levels of own-group favoritism. In terms of mechanisms, we find empirical evidence that culturally polarized classrooms foster negative stereotypes about immigrants' trustworthiness and amplify taste-based discrimination, both of which are costly and lead to lower payouts. In contrast, accurate statistical discrimination is ruled out by design in our experiment. These findings suggest that extra efforts are needed to counteract low levels of inclusivity and trust in culturally polarized environments. |
| JEL: | J15 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32177&r=ure |
| By: | David N. Figlio; Cassandra M.D. Hart; Krzysztof Karbownik |
| Abstract: | Using a rich dataset that merges student-level school records with birth records, and leveraging three alternative identification strategies, we explore how increase in access to charter schools in twelve districts in Florida affects students remaining in traditional public schools (TPS). We consistently find that competition stemming from the opening of new charter schools improves reading—but not math—performance and it also decreases absenteeism of students who remain in the TPS. Results are modest in magnitude. |
| JEL: | H75 I21 I22 I28 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10938&r=ure |
| By: | Luigi Minale (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Rudi Rocha (São Paulo School of Business Administration, Getulio Vargas Foundation); Bruno Vigna (BNDES) |
| Abstract: | The article investigates the long-term economic effects of immigrant diversity. Focusing on the large immigration wave experienced by Brazil at the turn of the twentieth century, we ask whether municipalities in the State of São Paulo that received a population of immigrants characterized by a more diverse mix of origin countries ended up having better long-term economic outcomes. To identify causal effects, we leverage on unique historical individual-level data in immigrants arriving in São Paulo between 1880 and 1920, and develop an instrumental variable strategy that combines time variation in the composition of immigrants arriving from overseas with the timing of the railway network expansion in the state. We find that a one standard deviation increase in accumulated immigrant diversity in 1920 is associated with a 7-8% higher income per capita in 2000. This effect is economically relevant and robust to various identification tests. Furthermore, when exploring the mechanisms through which immigrant diversity affected long-term development, we document that municipalities that hosted more a more diverse pool of immigrants experienced (i) larger proportions of employment in manufacturing and services as well as greater occupational diversity within manufacturing in the long-term; (ii) higher investment in public goods, as measured by municipal spending on education; (iii) and higher education outputs in the long-run. |
| Keywords: | birthplace diversity, immigration, long-term development |
| JEL: | C36 N36 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2408&r=ure |
| By: | Pyddoke, Roger (Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI)); Lind, Joar (Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI)) |
| Abstract: | Cities around the world contemplate how the transports of the city can be greened by shifting passenger transport demand from private car to more sustainable modes. Car users in cities frequently do not fully pay for the externalities (for example congestion, delays, accidents, noise, and air pollution) they cause other car users and citizens. This paper models and compares the effects of welfare optimized parking charges, congestion taxes, and kilometre taxes in Malmö and Uppsala in Sweden, internalization of externalities, welfare and shift of demand from car use to other modes. The results indicate that there is a significant potential for improvement in social welfare and for shifting mode from car to other modes by pricing car use externalities by all three instruments. The increased costs per trip imposed on car users by the instrument vary by a factor two from about EUR 1 to about EUR 2. |
| Keywords: | parking charge; congestion tax; kilometre tax; Sweden; welfare; optimization; mode shift |
| JEL: | R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2024–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vtiwps:2024_002&r=ure |
| By: | Gaddis, S. Michael (NWEA); Crabtree, Charles (Dartmouth College); Holbein, John B.; Pfaff, Steven |
| Abstract: | Although numerous studies document different forms of discrimination in the U.S. public education system, very few provide plausibly causal estimates. Thus, it is unclear to what extent public school principals discriminate against racial and ethnic minorities. Moreover, no studies test for heterogeneity in racial/ethnic discrimination by individual-level resource needs and school-level resource strain – potentially important moderators in the education context. Using a correspondence audit, we examine bias against Black, Hispanic, and Chinese American families in interactions with 52, 792 public K-12 principals in 33 states. Our research provides causal evidence that Hispanic and Chinese American families face significant discrimination in initial interactions with principals, regardless of individual-level resource needs. Black families, however, only face discrimination when they have high resource needs. Additionally, principals in schools with greater resource strain discriminate more against Chinese American families. This research uncovers complexities of racial/ethnic discrimination in the K-12 context because we examine multiple racial/ethnic groups and test for heterogeneity across individual- and school-level variables. These findings highlight the need for researchers conducting future correspondence audits to expand the scope of their research to provide a more comprehensive analysis of racial/ethnic discrimination in the U.S. |
| Date: | 2024–02–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:zq4hn&r=ure |
| By: | Seltzer, Andrew J.; Wadsworth, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | The growth of public transport networks in the late-nineteenth and early-twentieth centuries had profound effects on commuting in the industrialized world, yet the consequences for labor markets during this important period of historical development remains largely unstudied. This paper draws on a unique dataset combining individual commuting and wage information for working-class residents of London, circa 1930, to analyze, for the first time, the nature of and returns to commuting shortly after when networks were first built. A sizeable majority of working-class Londoners worked within a short walk of their residence in 1890. By 1930, over 70 percent commuted at least one kilometer. Commuting allowed workers to search for jobs over a wider geographic area and across a larger number of potential employers. This, in turn, potentially increased workers’ bargaining power and improved employer-employee matching. We show that wage returns to commuting were on the order of 1.5–3.5 percent per kilometer travelled. Access to public transport increased both the probability of commuting and distance commuted but had little or no direct effect on the probability of being employed or on earnings. We argue that these results are consistent with a search and matching framework; commuting led to workers finding jobs more suited to their skills and to better matches with employers. We also provide descriptive evidence from contemporary sources to describe the impact of commuting on improving quality of life by reducing urban crowding. |
| Keywords: | commuting; labor markets; earnings; London |
| JEL: | N94 R40 N34 J31 N73 |
| Date: | 2023–09–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120895&r=ure |
| By: | Robert Forster; Destan Kirimhan; Xiaojin Sun |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and its mortgage lending implications for the affected Gulf coast areas. We construct a unique dataset by using information from the Shoreline Cleanup Assessment Technique program and mapping those observations to the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act lending dataset. Our difference-in-differences estimation results show that denial rates of mortgage applications rise between 2 and 6% as a result of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, whilst accounting for fixed effects at the lender and census tract levels. We also find that the effect is larger on refinance mortgages compared to home purchase mortgages, and national banks respond more aggressively compared to other mortgage lenders. |
| Keywords: | Mortgage Lending, Environmental Damage, Oil Spill, Difference-in-Differences |
| JEL: | G21 Q53 R11 |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:liv:livedp:202219&r=ure |
| By: | Aysun Hiziroglu Aygün (Istanbul Technical UniversityAuthor-Name: Abdullah Tirgil; Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the causal relationship between education and mental health in Turkey. We rely on the quasi-experimental setting created by the 1997 compulsory education reform that raised the compulsory years of schooling from five to eight years. Using regression discontinuity design, we use the birth year to indicate reform exposure and identify the causal effects of longer years of schooling on mental health. Our results demonstrate a sizable negative impact of education on the mental health scale. We present evidence that the reform had a more adverse effect on men's mental health. There is also heterogeneity by the place of residence, as the longer school years led people who live in urban areas to experience worse mental health outcomes. By investigating possible mechanisms, we show that those with at least a middle school education did not invest more in their health than those without a middle school diploma. We explain the evidence for the adverse effects of education on mental health, especially experienced by those who face higher competition in the labor market, by the lack of an increase in household income despite the longer years in school. |
| Date: | 2024–01–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1703&r=ure |
| By: | Giovanni Dosi; Anna Snaidero |
| Abstract: | This paper delves into geographical agglomeration patterns of economic activities focusing on the connection between these agglomeration tendencies and sectoral patterns of innovative activities. Within a broad evolutionary perspective, we refine upon incumbent statistical models, trying to distinguish between intra- and inter-sectoral agglomerative forces, conditional on different types of sectoral innovative activities. Utilizing data spanning three distinct years, a decade apart, we investigate the systematic nature of spatial distributions, the relationship between agglomeration drivers and technological paradigms, and shifts in agglomerative tendencies over time. Our findings suggest that economic space is far from uniform, but the spatial heterogeneity differs across sectors as it is driven by various factors, including increasing returns, urbanization advantages, and sector-specific forms of knowledge generation and diffusion. |
| Keywords: | spatial agglomeration, evolutionary economic geography, increasing returns, externalities, knowledge specificities, Pavitt taxonomy |
| Date: | 2024–03–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2024/07&r=ure |
| By: | Charlotte Liotta (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, TU - Technical University of Berlin / Technische Universität Berlin, MCC - Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change - PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research); Vincent Viguié (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Felix Creutzig (MCC - Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change - PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, TU - Technical University of Berlin / Technische Universität Berlin) |
| Abstract: | City-level policies are increasingly recognized as key components of strategies to reduce transport greenhouse gas emissions. However, at a global scale, their total efficiencies, costs, and practical feasibility remain unclear. Here, we use a spatially-explicit monocentric urban economic model, systematically calibrated on 120 cities worldwide, to analyze the impact of four representative policies aiming at mitigating transportation GHG emissions, also accounting for their economic welfare impacts and health co-benefits. Applying these policies in all cities, we find that total transportation GHG emissions can be reduced by 31% in 15 years, compared with the baseline scenario. However, the consequences of the same policies vary widely between cities, with specific effects depending on the policy considered, income level, population growth rate, spatial organization, and existing public transport supply. Impacts on transport emissions span from high to almost zero, and consequences in terms of welfare can either be positive or negative. Applying welfareincreasing policy portfolios captures most of the emission reductions: overall, they reduce emissions by 22% in 15 years. Our results highlight that there is no one-size-fits-all policy. However, with context-specific strategies, large emission reductions can globally be achieved while improving welfare. |
| Date: | 2023–05–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04445981&r=ure |
| By: | Gaurab Aryal; Charles Murry; Pallavi Pal; Arnab Palit |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the effects of bundling demand for broadband internet by K-12 schools. In 2014, New Jersey switched from decentralized procurements to a new procurement system that bundled schools into four regional groups. Using an event study approach, we find that, on average, prices for participants decreased by one-third, and broadband speed purchased increased sixfold. We bound the change in school expenditures due to the program and find that participants saved at least as much as their total "E-rate" subsidy from the federal government. Under weak assumptions on demand, we show that participating schools experienced large welfare gains. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2402.07277&r=ure |
| By: | Lehrer, Steven (Queen's University); Lepage, Louis-Pierre (Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University); Sousa Pereira, Nuno (University of Porto) |
| Abstract: | We study how exposure of employers to immigrants, both at the market and at the individual firm level, mitigates immigrant-native disparities. We use administrative employee-employer matched data from Portugal, which provides a unique setting given that it experienced almost no immigration until the early 2000s followed by substantial immigration waves. Focusing on the evolution of market wages across successive immigration cohorts, we find that increased employer exposure to immigrant groups can account for up to 25% of the wage convergence between immigrants and natives over the last two decades. We also document that individual-level exposure of firms to immigrants plays an important role, influencing future hiring and remuneration of immigrants. Our results provide new insights into how barriers to hiring different worker groups shape economic inequality, with novel implications for immigration policies. |
| Keywords: | immigration; immigrant-native wage gaps |
| JEL: | J15 J31 |
| Date: | 2024–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sofiwp:2024_002&r=ure |
| By: | Lorenzo Alderighi (European University Institute); Rosario Maria Ballatore (Bank of Italy); Marco Tonello (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we estimate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on hidden drop-outs, a new indicator of failure to acquire the minimum skills deemed necessary to obtain a high school diploma. We use the exogenous variation induced by the pandemic by comparing two cohorts of students from the same school, one affected and the other not affected by the pandemic. We find that the indicator increased by 8.6 percentage points. The effect is stronger for students with lower levels of prior achievement, those from lower-income households, but also for those who showed emotional distress during the standardized tests and those who report lower educational aspirations. |
| Keywords: | hidden drop-outs, secondary education, school failure, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | I21 I24 I18 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_794_23&r=ure |
| By: | Moritz Kuhn; Iourii Manovskii; Xincheng Qiu |
| Abstract: | Spatial differences in labor market performance are large and highly persistent. Using data from the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom, we document striking similarities across these countries in the spatial differences in unemployment, vacancies, and job filling, finding, and separation rates. The novel facts on the geography of vacancies and job filling are instrumental in guiding and disciplining the development of a theory of local labor market performance. We find that a spatial version of a Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model with endogenous separations and on-the-job search quantitatively accounts for all the documented empirical regularities. The model also quantitatively rationalizes why differences in job-separation rates have primary importance in inducing differences in unemployment across space while changes in the job-finding rate are the main driver in unemployment fluctuations over the business cycle. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment; Search and matching; Vacancies; Local labor markets |
| JEL: | J64 E24 E32 R13 J63 |
| Date: | 2024–02–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmoi:97900&r=ure |
| By: | Baum, Christopher F.; Lööf, Hans; Stephan, Andreas; Zimmermann, Klaus F. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the wage earnings of fully-employed previous refugee immigrants in Sweden. Using administrative employer-employee data from 1990 onwards, about 100, 000 refugee immigrants who arrived between 1980 and 1996 and were granted asylum, are compared to a matched sample of native-born workers. Employing recentered influence function (RIF) quantile regressions to wage earnings for the period 2011-2015, the occupational-task-based Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition approach shows that refugees perform better than natives at the median wage, controlling for individual and firm characteristics. This overperformance is due to female refugee immigrants, who have-relative to their endowment-higher wages than comparable native-born female peers up to the 8th decile of the wage distribution. Given their endowments, refugee immigrant females perform better than native females across all occupational tasks studied, including non-routine cognitive tasks. A remarkable similarity exists in the relative wage distributions among various refugee groups, suggesting that cultural differences and the length of time spent in the host country do not significantly affect their labor market performance. |
| Keywords: | refugees, wage earnings gap, occupational sorting, employer-employee data, correlated random effects model, Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition |
| JEL: | C23 F22 J24 J6 O15 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1400&r=ure |
| By: | Stefania Bortolotti; Annalisa Loviglio |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of a personalized mentoring program on university enrollment choices and academic outcomes. Conducting a randomized controlled trial among 337 high school students, we find that the program significantly influences students' decisions, increasing the likelihood of choosing a field aligned with their mentor's by 22 percentage points, representing a 45% increase from the baseline. Notably, the program also shifts preferences towards STEM/Economics fields, enhancing prospective wages by 3.1-3.7%, without negatively impacting university performance. These findings underscore the mentorship's potential to guide students towards more informed and beneficial educational choices. |
| JEL: | A20 C93 I23 I26 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp1192&r=ure |
| By: | Galarza, Francisco (Universidad del Pacífico); Kámiche Zegarra, Joanna (Universidad del Pacífico); Gómez de Zea, Rosario (Universidad del Pacífico) |
| Abstract: | We study the role of subnational institutions in forest conservation in a context in which areas near roads are prone to deforestation. We develop an index of institutionalism to examine the extent to which local institutions can contribute to mitigate the road infrastructure’s adverse effect on deforestation. Using a large dataset from Peru, home to the second largest portion of the Amazon rainforest, we find that a higher value of our index of local institutions is significantly correlated with lower deforestation. However, the effect of our institutions index is not sufficiently large to offset the deforesting effect that closeness to roads has, at least not for relatively short distances to road. These results are robust to different specifications of our institutions index and to the inclusión of a large set of control variables. |
| Keywords: | Environment and development, deforestation, infrastructure, institutions. |
| JEL: | D02 O18 Q56 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pai:wpaper:23-03&r=ure |
| By: | Fedorova, Natalia; Kandler, Anne; McElreath, Richard |
| Abstract: | Investments in housing influence migration and landscape construction, making them a key component of human-environment interactions. However, the strategic decision-making that builds residential landscapes is an underdeveloped area of research in evolutionary approaches to human behavior. We develop a model of strategic settlement and fit it to data from Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. We construct a stochastic dynamic programming model to explore the trade-offs between building, moving, and saving over time, finding different trade-offs depending on optimisation scenarios. Household strategies are estimated using data on 825 households that settled in the Ger districts between 1942 and 2020. The Ger districts are areas of self-built housing that feature both mobile dwellings (gers) and immobile houses (bashins). Using Approximate Bayesian Computation, we find the parameters of our dynamic programming model that best fit the empirical data. The model is able to capture the time horizon of housing changes and their bi-directionality, showing that moving from a bashin to ger can also be an optimal strategy. However, the model under-predicts some types of dwelling change; we discuss deviations from model predictions in relation to housing changes. We identify a more detailed exploration of risk and population mixes of strategies as key steps for future research |
| Date: | 2024–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:d4uvs&r=ure |
| By: | Sarah Soleiman (SAMM - Statistique, Analyse et Modélisation Multidisciplinaire (SAmos-Marin Mersenne) - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne); Julien Randon-Furling (SAMM - Statistique, Analyse et Modélisation Multidisciplinaire (SAmos-Marin Mersenne) - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne); Marie Cottrell (SAMM - Statistique, Analyse et Modélisation Multidisciplinaire (SAmos-Marin Mersenne) - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Date: | 2022–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03900972&r=ure |
| By: | Julian Granna; Stefan Lang; Nikolaus Umlauf |
| Abstract: | Modeling real estate prices in the context of hedonic models often involves fitting a Generalized Additive Model, where only the mean of a (lognormal) distribution is regressed on a set of variables without taking other parameters of the distribution into account. Thus far, the application of regression models that model the full conditional distribution of the prices, has been infeasible for large data sets, even on powerful machines. Moreover, accounting for heterogeneity of effects regarding time and location, is often achieved by naive stratification of the data rather than on a model basis. A novel batchwise backfitting algorithm is applied in the context of a structured additive distributional regression model, which enables us to efficiently model all distributional parameters of the price distribution. Using a large German dataset of apartment asking prices with over one million observations, we employ a model-based clustering algorithm to capture the heterogeneity of covariate effects on the parameters with respect to location. We thus identify clusters that are homogeneous with respect to the influence of location on price. A boosting type algorithm of the batchwise backfitting algorithm is then used to automatically determine the variables relevant for modelling the location and scale parameters in each regional cluster. This allows for a different influence of variables on the distribution of prices depending on the location and price segment of the dwelling. |
| Keywords: | IWLS proposals, MCMC, multiplicative interaction effects, structured additive predictor |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inn:wpaper:2024-02&r=ure |
| By: | Ainoa Aparicio Fenoll; Nadia Campaniello; Ignacio Monzon |
| Abstract: | Do parents take into account their children’s ability when deciding on their education? If so, are parents’ perceptions accurate? We study this by analyzing a key educational decision. Parents choose whether their children start elementary school one year early. Do they select high ability kids to start early? We propose a novel methodology to identify the sign and strength of selection into early starting. We find robust evidence of positive selection. Had they started regularly, early starters would have obtained test scores 0.2 standard deviations higher than the average student. Our simple methodology applies to RDD settings in general. |
| Keywords: | School starting age; Selection; Children; Education; Treatment effects |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wpaper:704&r=ure |
| By: | Ricardo Dahis; Christiane Szerman |
| Abstract: | Changes in political boundaries aimed at devolving power to local governments are common in many countries. We examine the economic consequences of redistricting through the creation of smaller government units. Exploiting reforms that led to sharp variations in the number of government units in Brazil, we show that voluntary redistricting increases the size of the public sector, public services delivery, and economic activity in new local governments over the long term. The gains in economic activity are not offset by losses elsewhere and are stronger in peripheral and remote backward areas neglected by their parent governments. We provide evidence that decentralizing decision-making power boosts local development in disadvantaged areas beyond simply gains in fiscal revenues. |
| Keywords: | redistricting, decentralization, public goods, development |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10927&r=ure |
| By: | Antonio Accetturo (Bank of Italy); Francesca Modena (Bank of Italy); Giacomo Ziglio (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the impact of a regional policy aimed at fostering permanent employment after the COVID-19 recession. Using administrative micro data from the Italian private sector, we estimate the impact of subsidies on permanent employment by examining variations in their implementation across regions and over time. We find that, on average, the effect on the hiring of previously unemployed people is limited, but the impact on the conversion of fixed-term contracts to permanent ones is positive and sizeable. However, we observe that the average effect masks great heterogeneity across age groups, with young people - for whom subsidies were more generous - benefiting the most. Furthermore, we find no evidence that this regional policy encouraged employee poaching. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, Employment subsidies, Hiring, Place-based policy, Policy evaluation |
| JEL: | J21 J41 J48 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_808_23&r=ure |
| By: | Stone, Wendy; Sharam, Andrea; Goodall, Zoë; reynolds, margaret; Sinclair, Sarah; Faulkner, Debbie; James, Amity; Zhang, Thomas |
| Abstract: | With peoples’ gender having a real impact of their ability to find safe, affordable housing, new AHURI research highlights that policy makers and support services need to develop secure and accurate data collection and collation practices in order to improve outcomes. It is critically important that researchers can provide confidence to participants and end-users that gender-related data will be gathered respectfully, treated securely, stored securely and used only for legitimate evidence and policy purposes. This research presents evidence that housing opportunities, pathways, assistance and impacts are gendered. This is particularly the case when the often co-existing and cumulative lifetime impacts of educational attainment, critical life events, family formation and/or relationship dissolution are included in the analysis. For example, for people aged 18—34, there is only a marginal difference in housing precarity (i.e. the condition of having unstable or insecure housing that does not meet adequate standards of affordability, quality or security) experienced overall between male and female respondents; however, for lone parents, 10.4 per cent of lone fathers are in a precarious housing situation while 14.6 per cent of lone mothers experience precarity—a reflection of the gendered nature of housing precarity. The research also developed the Gendered Housing Framework through which gender-responsiveness can be assessed in housing and homelessness policy and practice, including data adequacy in census, survey and administrative data collections. |
| Date: | 2024–02–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5g7b3&r=ure |
| By: | Soyoka OKAMURA; Yotaro UENO; Toma YAMAGOSHI; Hisaki KONO |
| Abstract: | We revisit the empirical investigation of the importance of national institutions for sub-regional economic development using more accurate nighttime light data. In contrast to the original study by Michalopoulos and Papaioannou (2014), we find that national institutions matter even after controlling for ethnic-homeland fixed effects, and even in areas far from the capital. This suggests that the spatial imprecision and blurring of nighttime light data attenuated the association between national institutions and economic activity in their analysis. Nevertheless, our analyses generally corroborate their argument, particularly regarding the role of the limited penetration of national institutions in African countries. |
| Keywords: | Consistency, Nighttime lights, DMSP, VIIRS, national institutions. |
| JEL: | O10 O43 N17 R12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kue:epaper:e-23-008&r=ure |
| By: | Asyahid, Esa A. (Warwick University) |
| Abstract: | Although local government splits have been widely implemented in developing countries, there is limited empirical evidence on their effects on economic activities. This study investigates the impacts of district splits on household business activities using a rich household-level panel dataset that spans over 20 years and covers an episode of massive district splits in Indonesia. Using a difference-in-differences approach, I found that district splits do not improve non-farm business revenue growth. Instead, they drive more businesses to exit from the industry. On the other hand, district splits improve farm business revenue growth and entry into this industry. However, the growth effect is not driven by productivity improvement as expected, but solely the result of land input expansion, which is likely acquired in unsustainable ways. Additionally, district splits decrease out-migration, aligning with the Tiebout sorting model. Taken together, these findings add another argument for the need to reevaluate the current practices and regulations on local government splits. |
| Keywords: | D13 ; D73 ; H77 JEL classifications: local government splitting ; Indonesia ; household business ; difference-indifference |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:wrkesp:70&r=ure |
| By: | Martijn Huysmans; Niels Gheyle |
| Abstract: | The European Parliament represents the citizens of the European Union. However, individual Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) also face incentives to represent more narrow regional economic interests. Geographical Indications such as Feta or Champagne are an ideal policy area to study regional representation. Their defined regions provide clear incentives and a reliable measurement of regional representation. This article codes and analyses the written questions on Geographical Indications posed by MEPs during the period 2009-2019. Descriptively, we find that MEPs often mention products from their region. We also find that MEPs focus their questions on contentious products and on politicized free trade agreements. Quantitatively, logit regressions provide evidence for more regional representation by MEPs from countries with regional lists for EP elections. We conclude with the implications of our research for representation in the European Union, and the idea of transnational lists. |
| Keywords: | European Parliament, Regional Representation, Parliamentary Questions, Geographical Indications, Trade Agreements |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:use:tkiwps:2309&r=ure |
| By: | Anne Fournier (ERUDITE – Université Gustave Eiffel) |
| Abstract: | Feeding the expanding global population while reducing the environmental impact of farming and food supply is among the main challenges of the century. Cities, which host the large majority of the past decade demographic growth, are at the forefront. They are increasingly considering the relevance of developing policies to explicitly support less-intensive production and/or rebuild their foodshed so as to reduce their reliance on long-distance food transport. In this paper, we develop a spatial theoretical model to describe and discuss both economic and environmental implications of farming practices change and relocation strategies. We highlight that, compared to the market outcome, promoting less-intensive and local farming may improve the welfare provided that the marginal opportunity cost of urban land remains low enough. However, we also show that the conversion from conventional to alternative farming does not necessarily reduce GHG emissions and may, as a consequence, offset the positive effect on welfare. We finally conduct numerical simulations so as to illustrate the ambiguous impacts of food relocation. |
| Keywords: | Urban Foodprint, Land Allocation, Food Supply Chains, Greenhouse Gas, Sustainability |
| JEL: | F12 Q54 Q56 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fae:wpaper:2024.04&r=ure |
| By: | Joel Elvery |
| Abstract: | Occupational mixes and wage distributions in the Fourth District’s metro areas mirror both national trends and departures from them that reflect the District’s unique economic makeup. Changes in occupational mix spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic were similar in District metro areas and the nation. |
| Keywords: | regional economies; wage distributions; occupations; COVID-19 pandemic |
| Date: | 2024–03–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:c00003:97904&r=ure |
| By: | Chagas, André Luis Squarize (Departamento de Economia, Universidade de São Paulo); Andrade, Luiza (Departamento de Economia, Universidade de São Paulo) |
| Abstract: | Difference-in-differences (DID) has long been a staple in estimating treatment effects in applied econometrics, with recent advancements relaxing traditional assumptions to explore heterogeneous and spillover effects. While heterogeneous effects analysis examines causal impacts across diverse groups and periods, spillover effects analysis delves into the influence of treatments on neighboring units. Incorporating spatial dependence within the DID framework, Spatial Difference-in-Differences (SDID) models have emerged as a powerful tool for analyzing such effects, particularly in settings where observations represent fixed geographical units. This study contributes to the literature by explicitly formalizing underlying assumptions and employing an SDID model to analyze the impact of Brazil’s Priority Municipalities List on deforestation in the Amazon region. Utilizing both traditional DID and SDID methodologies, we uncover significant reductions in deforestation odds ratios within listed municipalities and neighboring unlisted municipalities. Furthermore, we introduce an event study approach linked with SDID to explore the policy’s anticipatory effects. Our findings underscore the effectiveness of the Priority Municipalities List in curbing deforestation and highlight the importance of spatially explicit methodologies in environmental policy evaluation. This article advances methodological discussions surrounding SDID estimation and provides empirical insights into the efficacy of targeted environmental policies in combating deforestation in sensitive ecosystems like the Amazon. |
| Keywords: | Spatial diff-in-diff; spillover effects; spatial event study; causal inference; deforestation; Brazilian Amazon |
| JEL: | C21 C23 K32 Q50 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–03–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nereus:2024_002&r=ure |
| By: | Jeanet Sinding Bentzen (University of Copenhagen, CAGE, CEPR); Nina Boberg-Fazlić (TU Dortmund University, CEPR); Paul Sharp (University of Southern Denmark, CAGE, CEPR); Christian Volmar Skovsgaard (University of Southern Denmark); Christian Vedel (University of Southern Denmark) |
| Abstract: | The cultural assimilation of immigrants into the host society is often equated with prospects for economic success, with religion seen as a potential barrier. We investigate the role of ethnic enclaves and churches for the assimilation of Danish Americans using a difference-indifferences setting. Following the ordination of a divisive religious figure in 1883, this otherwise small and homogeneous group split into rival Lutheran revivalist camps - so-called “Happy” and “Holy” Danes. The former sought the preservation of Danish culture and tradition, while the latter encouraged assimilation. We use data from the US census and Danish American church and newspaper archives, and find that Danish Americans living in a county with a “Happy” church chose more Danish names for their children. Newspapers read by “Holy Danes” saw a more rapid Anglicization of the language used. Religious beliefs thus facilitated assimilation. Divergence in behaviour only emerged following the religious division. |
| Keywords: | Assimilation, Danish Americans, enclaves, immigration, religion |
| JEL: | F22 J61 N31 N32 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0253&r=ure |
| By: | Abagna, Matthew Amalitinga; Hornok, Cecília; Mulyukova, Alina |
| Abstract: | This paper provides empirical evidence on the impact of a prominent place-based policy - Special Economic Zones (SEZs) - on the economic well-being of African households. We compile a novel dataset on repeated cross-sections of households living in various distance bands around SEZs in 10 African countries over the period of 1990 to 2020. Exploiting time variation in SEZ establishment, the estimation yields that households in the vicinity of SEZs become significantly wealthier compared to the national average after SEZs are established. The effect is most pronounced for households within 10 km and decays rapidly with distance. We show that this result is not driven by the residential sorting of wealthier households in SEZ neighbourhoods. The rise in wealth is strongest towards the middle of the wealth distribution and goes hand in hand with increased access to household utilities, higher consumption of durable goods, higher levels of education, and a shift away from agricultural activities - patterns that we interpret as indicative of an urbanization trend and the strengthening of the middle class. |
| Keywords: | special economic zone, place-based policy, household wealth, Africa |
| JEL: | F6 F21 O15 O25 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:283892&r=ure |
| By: | J V M Sarma ((Corresponding Author)Professor in charge of the Centre for Public Finance, Madras School of Economics, Chennai) |
| Abstract: | Non-tax revenues in the form of cost recoveries of public services provided by governments are the most important source of revenue for urban local governments in India. However, most governments lack rational pricing policy for these services and generally charge token prices, which may hardly relate to their supply and distribution costs. The financial sustainability of the drinking water supply system involves ‘cost recovery’ principle, and the tariff rate structures should be designed in such a way that revenue yield should compensate the operation and maintenance cost. However, the current water pricing practices are deficient in the sense that often the price of urban water supply is lower than the costs incurred for its provision. In this paper it is attempted to design an objective tariff system that is efficient, adequate, equitable and is suitable for recovery of the costs involved in the drinking water sector. The model basically aims at linking the water tariff rates to the volumetric consumption of water, with adequate progressivity. |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mad:wpaper:2023-244&r=ure |
| By: | Matthias Flückiger; Mario Larch; Markus Ludwig; Luigi Pascali |
| Abstract: | In the latter half of the fourth millennium BC, our ancestors witnessed a remarkable transformation, progressing from simple agrarian villages to complex urban civilizations. In regions as far apart as the Nile Valley, Mesopotamia, Central Asia, and the Indus Valley, the first states appeared together with writing, cities with populations exceeding 10, 000, and unprecedented socio-economic inequalities. The cause of this “Urban Revolution” remains unclear. We present new empirical evidence suggesting that the discovery of bronze and the ensuing long-distance trade played a crucial role. Using novel panel data and 2SLS techniques, we demonstrate that trade corridors linking metal mines to fertile lands were more likely to experience the Urban Revolution. We propose that transit bottlenecks facilitated the emergence of a new taxing elite. We formally test this appropriability theory and provide several case studies in support. |
| Keywords: | urban civilizations, long-distance trade, metal trade, transit bottlenecks |
| JEL: | D02 F10 H10 N40 O43 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10929&r=ure |
| By: | Gaurav Chiplunkar; Erin M. Kelley; Gregory V. Lane |
| Abstract: | We study how job-seekers share information about jobs within their social network, and its implications for firms. We randomly increase the amount of competition for a job and find that job-seekers are: (i) less likely to share information about the job with their peers; and (ii) choose to selectively share it with fewer higher ability peers. This lowers the quality of applicants received by firms, subsequent hires made, and performance on the job — suggesting that firms who rely on social networks to disseminate job information may see lower quality applicants than expected for their most competitive positions. While randomly offering higher wages attracts better talent, it is not able to fully overcome these strategic disincentives in information sharing |
| JEL: | L14 M51 O12 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32171&r=ure |
| By: | Grosjean, Pauline (UNSW Sydney); Jha, Saumitra (Stanford U); Vlassopoulos, Michael (U of Southampton and IZA, Bonn); Zenou, Yves (Monash U and IZA, Bonn) |
| Abstract: | We study the dynamics between local segregation, partisanship, and political polarization. We exploit large-scale, exogenous and high-stakes peer assignment due to universal conscription of soldiers assigned from each of 34, 947 municipalities to French infantry regiments during WWI. We find that municipalities with soldiers serving with the same line regiment converge in their post-war voting behaviors. Soldiers from rural municipalities exposed to more leftist regimental peers become more leftist for the first time after the war, while adjacent municipalities assigned to the right are inoculated against the left. We provide evidence that these differences reflect persuasive information exchanged among peers when the stakes for cooperation and trust are high rather than group conformity. These differences further lead to the emergence of sharp and enduring post-war discontinuities across 435 regimental boundaries that are reflected, not only in voting, but also in violent civil conflicts between Collaborators and Resistants during WWII. |
| JEL: | D74 L14 N44 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:4142&r=ure |
| By: | Raffaello Bronzini (coordinator) (Bank of Italy); Massimiliano Bolis (Bank of Italy); Federica Daniele (Ocse, Parigi); Claudia Di Carmine (Bank of Italy); Luigi Leva (Bank of Italy); Francesco Montaruli (Bank of Italy); Elena Romito (Bank of Italy); Daniele Ruggeri (Bank of Italy); Elisa Scarinzi (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | The report examines the Rome metropolitan area’s economy from the early 2000s to the eve of the pandemic. For over nearly two decades the capital’s per capita value-added dynamic has been lower than that of the other major Italian and European cities, owing to an unsatisfactory output per worker trend. In the face of a decline in the public sector, in large companies, and in investments, there has been a rapid rise in employment in low knowledge-intensive services, which is also due to a significant increase in tourist flows. As a result, there has been a significant decrease in specialization in knowledge-intensive services and a significant increase in low-skilled occupations. Despite these dynamics, Rome’s economy retains a number of strengths, including: the continued centrality of knowledge-intensive services and the high degree of internationalization of those for businesses, the significant weight of workers with a higher education, a high company birth rate, and a large portion of public research. |
| Keywords: | urban economics, structural change, labor productivity, inequalities |
| JEL: | R10 R11 L16 J24 O47 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_793_23&r=ure |
| By: | Bruno F. Oliveira; Alessandro V. M. Oliveira |
| Abstract: | This work focuses on trying to understand how the construction of an airline's network is made. For this purpose, the case of Azul was studied, investigating which and how factors affect the decision of this airline to enter domestic routes, in addition to analyzing how the merger of Azul with the regional airline Trip affected the company's network planning. For this, an academic study was conducted using an econometric model to understand the airline's entry model. The results show that Azul's business model is based on connecting new destinations, not yet served by its competitors, to one of its hubs, and consistently avoiding routes or airports dominated by other airlines. Regarding the effects of the merger, the results suggest that Azul moved away from its original entry model, based on JetBlue, to a model more oriented towards regional aviation, entering shorter routes and regional airports. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2402.13278&r=ure |
| By: | Tadao Hoshino |
| Abstract: | This study introduces a novel spatial autoregressive model in which the dependent variable is a function that may exhibit functional autocorrelation with the outcome functions of nearby units. This model can be characterized as a simultaneous integral equation system, which, in general, does not necessarily have a unique solution. For this issue, we provide a simple condition on the magnitude of the spatial interaction to ensure the uniqueness in data realization. For estimation, to account for the endogeneity caused by the spatial interaction, we propose a regularized two-stage least squares estimator based on a basis approximation for the functional parameter. The asymptotic properties of the estimator including the consistency and asymptotic normality are investigated under certain conditions. Additionally, we propose a simple Wald-type test for detecting the presence of spatial effects. As an empirical illustration, we apply the proposed model and method to analyze age distributions in Japanese cities. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2402.14763&r=ure |
| By: | Giovanni Carnazza (University of Pisa); Raffaele Lagravinese (University of Bari); Paolo Liberati (Roma Tre University); Irene Torrini (Bocconi University) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the dynamics of health care mobility in Italy, where citizens have the freedom to access medical treatment across regions. More than half a million patients, primarily from the Southern regions, engage in healthcare mobility, resulting in a total expenditure of €3.7 billion in 2019. Leveraging a unique dataset spanning from 2002 to 2019, this research examines financial transactions, utilizes network analysis, and identifies influencing factors through a gravity model. Socioeconomic disparities and the availability of specialized services are key drivers of this mobility. Regions with higher healthcare quality and the presence of private licensed hospitals attract a larger number of patients. This study offers valuable insights into the intricacies of interregional healthcare mobility, which can inform healthcare policy and promote regional equity considerations. |
| Keywords: | Italian health system, network analysis, gravity model, decentralisation |
| JEL: | H75 I14 I18 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bai:series:series_wp_01-2024&r=ure |
| By: | Reynolds, Margaret; Parkinson, Sharon; De Vries, Jacqueline; Hulse, Kath |
| Abstract: | This research analyses the ABS Census to reveal changes in the supply of private rental housing affordable and available to lower-income households (Q1 and Q2 households) over both the short term (2016–21) and the longer term (1996–2021). It also provides analysis of how COVID-19 policy and population responses temporarily altered the long-run structural trajectory of the private rental sector (PRS) in Australia. In 2021, the Australian PRS housed more than 2.363 million households, a 17 per cent increase of nearly 340, 000 households since the 2016 Census. This growth has been greater than total household growth in each intercensal period since 1996. Between 2016 and 2021 PRS growth was concentrated at mid-market levels; in dwellings renting from around $300–$530 per week ($2021). This continues a major change trend first established in 2011, reinforcing the structural shift to a market concentration of dwellings renting at mid-to-higher levels. The long-term shift in the national distribution of PRS household incomes reveals the growth of households with incomes at mid to high levels ($1, 246 a week and above). In 1996, these ‘wealthier’ households comprised 40 per cent of all PRS households (or 489, 000 households); in 2021, they comprised 64 per cent (or 1, 519, 000 households), a 211 per cent increase. In comparison, the total number of PRS households increased by 91 per cent between 1996 and 2021 (from 1, 234, 000 households to 2, 362, 000). Over the same time frame, there has been a relatively constant total number of lower income renters in the PRS; 508, 000 households in1996 and 488, 000 in 2024. Nevertheless, there was a shortage of 348, 000 affordable and available private rental homes for very-low income (Q1) households in 2021 and that, as a result, 82 per cent of Q1 PRS households paid unaffordable rents. |
| Date: | 2024–02–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:h3tfk&r=ure |
| By: | Ying Wu; Garvit Arora; Xuan Mei |
| Abstract: | Forecasting the loss given default (LGD) for defaulted Commercial Real Estate (CRE) loans poses a significant challenge due to the extended resolution and workout time associated with such defaults, particularly in CCAR and CECL framework where the utilization of post-default information, including macroeconomic variables (MEVs) such as unemployment (UER) and various rates, is restricted. The current environment of persistent inflation and resultant elevated rates further compounds the uncertainty surrounding predictive LGD models. In this paper, we leverage both internal and public data sources, including observations from the COVID-19 period, to present a list of evidence indicating that the growth rates of the Consumer Price, such as Year-over-Year (YoY) growth and logarithmic growth, are good leading indicators for various CRE related rates and indices. These include the Federal Funds Effective Rate and CRE market sales price indices in key locations such as Los Angeles, New York, and nationwide, encompassing both apartment and office segments. Furthermore, with CRE LGD data we demonstrate how incorporating CPI at the time of default can improve the accuracy of predicting CRE workout LGD. This is particularly helpful in addressing the common issue of early downturn underestimation encountered in CRE LGD models. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2402.15498&r=ure |
| By: | Huang, Justin (U of Michigan); Kaul, Rupali (INSEAD); Narayanan, Sridhar (Stanford U) |
| Abstract: | Social networks utilize award recognition and front pages to motivate user content creation, facilitate consumer discovery of content, and provide attention and recognition to the best content. Past research shows that such attention and recognition increase the volume of content shared on the networks. But how do these affect the nature of content shared on platforms? Do they cause creators to share content similar to that which received attention and recognition? Or do creators take risks and create different content? We investigate these questions in the context of a digital art-sharing social network. We implement a randomized controlled experiment to induce exogenous variation in attention and recognition provided to users' content. Using a transfer learning machine learning algorithm, we convert complex images into lower-level features to analyze changes in content novelty. We find that awarded creators produce more novel content, relative to both the awarded content and their past work. This result is robust to a variety of ways in which we classify image content. Our results illustrate the importance of tools that induce attention and recognition to the creation and development of diverse content by social media creators and give insights into factors that motivate content creation. |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:4040&r=ure |
| By: | Alison Andrew; Orazio Attanasio; Britta Augsburg; Lina Cardona-Sosa; Monimalika Day; Michele Giannola; Sally Grantham-McGregor; Pamela Jervis; Costas Meghir; Marta Rubio-Codina |
| Abstract: | Early childhood interventions aim to promote skill acquisition and poverty reduction. While their short-term success is well established, research on longer-term effectiveness is scarce, particularly in LDCs. We present results of a randomized scalable intervention in India, that affected developmental outcomes in the short-term, including cognition (0.36 SD p=0.005), receptive language (0.26 SD p=0.03) and expressive language (0.21 SD p=0.03). After 4.5 years, when the children were on average 7.5 years old, IQ was no longer affected, but impacts persisted relative to the control group in numeracy (0.330 SD, p=0.007) and literacy (0.272 SD, p=0.064) driven by the most disadvantaged. |
| JEL: | I25 I30 I38 J13 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32165&r=ure |
| By: | Ronak Maheshwari (Research Scholar (Corresponding Author), Madras School of Economics, Gandhi Mandapam Road, Chennai-600 025 (India)); Brinda Viswanathan (Professor, Madras School of Economics, Gandhi Mandapam Road, Chennai) |
| Abstract: | The Right to Education Act of 2010 makes education a fundamental right for children aged six to fourteen years. Between 18 and 21 years, the activities of young adults diverge into pursuing further education or entering the labor force, or Not in Educational Employment and Training (NEET). Very few studies analyze the factors involved in these three choices and in particular, how the role of family and non-family networks varies across these activity statuses of youth in India after controlling for other covariates. This study attempts to fill this gap based on an empirical analysis of boys aged 18-21 years from the IHDS data for 2005-06 and 2011-12. The results from the discrete choice multinomial logit model show that, after controlling for socio-economic status, the primary source of household income, and parents’ education, both family and non-family networks increase the odds of enrolling in higher education or training compared to NEET while non-family networks favor workforce participation compared to NEET. The results further highlight that in addition to the number of ties the types of ties have a greater influence on the work-activity-related decisions of the youth. |
| Keywords: | Higher Education; Labor Force Participation; NEET; Social Networks; Youth Labor |
| JEL: | I23 J24 J64 N30 P36 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mad:wpaper:2024-255&r=ure |
| By: | Alexandra T Tapsoba (ISSP - Institut Supérieur des Sciences de la Population - UJZK - Université Joseph Ki-Zerbo [Ouagadougou], LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [2022-...] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Jean-Louis Combes (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [2022-...] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Pascale Combes Motel (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [2022-...] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | Abstract The year 2019 marked an unprecedented step in violence in Burkina Faso. Before 2018, attacks targeted central government officials and expatriates. In 2019, the victims of sexual assaults, attacks, abductions or forced disappearances and assassinations were mostly local civilians. The surge in these violent attacks against civilians generates population movements. As of 2023, internally displaced people represent about 10% of the total population in the country. Several observers point to the youth of the attackers. This study investigates the motives that could drive young people to resort to violence in the country. It aims to highlight youth resentment's effect on violence against civilians in the country as of 2019. It takes advantage of one of the latest nationwide United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF)-sponsored surveys conducted in Burkina Faso before some parts of the country became inaccessible because of attacks. Among other information, this survey collected data on youth resentment towards the ability of their kinship to fulfil their needs in 2018, namely before the shift in violence against civilians. We merge this survey into an original dataset that gathers data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), mining data from the MINEX project and distance data computed using Burkina Faso's roads information. The results of an event count model show that youth resentment matters in understanding the occurrence of conflicts. Moreover, the presence of mining companies, the remoteness of infrastructures, ethnic diversity and polarisation also significantly affect violence against civilians. |
| Keywords: | conflicts, youth resentment, relative deprivation, Burkina Faso |
| Date: | 2024–01–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04416513&r=ure |
| By: | Jordi Brandts (Instituto de Análisis Económico and Barcelona School of Economics); Isabel Busom (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona.); Cristina Lopez-Mayan (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | Citizens’ ability to make informed and thoughtful choices when voting for policy proposals rests on their awareness of and access to accurate information about the costs and benefits that each proposal entails. We study whether specific social factors affect the disposition to drop a misconception, the belief that rent control increases the availability of affordable housing. We design an online experiment to test whether giving voice, aggregate social information and disaggregate social information increase the effect of a video explaining the evidence on the consequences of rent control policies. While voice and aggregate social information do not have an additional effect relative to a control group that is shown the same video, supplying disaggregate social has an additional impact on updating beliefs. Furthermore, we find that changes in beliefs widely translate into intended voting and recommending the video. Finally, although ideological position and a zero–sum mentality are correlated with the initial misconception, these two factors do not thwart the disposition to update beliefs after receiving experts’ information. |
| Keywords: | Misconceptions, Policy beliefs, Communication, Social information, Online experiments, Refutation. JEL classification: A1, A2, C9, D83, D9 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:202402&r=ure |
| By: | Luis Bauluz; Pawel Bukowski; Mark Fransham; Annie Seong Lee; Neil Lee; Margarita Lopez Forero; Filip Novokmet; Moritz Schularick |
| Abstract: | Tackling inequality between regions within a country has become a political priority across much of the advanced world. Luis Bauluz, Pawel Bukowski, Mark Fransham, Annie Seong Lee, Neil Lee, Margarita Lopez Forero, Filip Novokmet and Moritz Schularick highlight that contrary to popular belief, inequality has been falling in some European countries and that geographical inequality in wages is not a major contributor to national income inequality. |
| Keywords: | Economic geography, Wages, equality |
| Date: | 2024–02–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:674&r=ure |