|
on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Jesse Matheson; Brendon McConnell; James Rockey; Argyris Sakalis; Jesse A. Matheson |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we provide the first evidence of the effect of the shift to remote work on crime. We examine the impact of the rise of working from home (WFH) on neighborhood-level burglary rates, exploiting geographically granular crime data and a neighborhood WFH measure. We document three key findings. First, a one standard deviation increase in neighborhood WFH (9.5pp) leads to a persistent 4% drop in burglaries. This effect is large, explaining more than half of the 30% decrease in burglaries across England and Wales since 2019. Second, this treatment effect exhibits heterogeneity according to the remote work capacity of contiguous neighborhoods. Specifically, being surrounded by relatively high WFH neighborhoods can entirely offset the crime-reducing benefit of a given neighborhood’s WFH potential. This is consistent with the predictions of a spatial search model of criminal activity that we develop in the paper. Finally, we document large welfare gains to the decrease in burglary. We estimate welfare gains using a hedonic house price model. Our most conservative estimates show the welfare gains are £24.5billion (1% of 2022 UK GDP), but the true gains are likely much higher. These estimates suggest the reduction in burglaries are among the most important consequences of the rise in WFH. |
| Keywords: | working from home, property crime, spatial spillovers, hedonic house price models |
| JEL: | H75 K42 R20 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10924&r=ure |
| By: | Bruno Albuquerque; Martin Iseringhausen; Frederic Opitz |
| Abstract: | We study the role of regional housing markets in the transmission of US monetary policy. Using a FAVAR model over 1999q1–2019q4, we find sizeable heterogeneity in the responses of US states to a contractionary monetary policy shock. Part of this regional variation is due to differences in housing supply elasticities, household debt overhang, and housing wealth (volatility). Our analysis indicates that house prices and consumption respond more in supply-inelastic states and in states with large household debt imbalances, where negative housing wealth effects bite more strongly and borrowing constraints become more binding. Moreover, financial stability risks increase sharply in these areas as mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures surge, worsening banks’ balance sheets. Finally, monetary policy may have a stronger effect on housing tenure decisions in supply-inelastic states, where the homeownership rate and price-to-rent ratios decline by more. Our findings stress the importance of regional housing supply conditions in assessing the macrofinancial effects of rising interest rates. |
| Keywords: | Credit conditions; FAVAR; house prices; monetary policy; regional data; supply elasticities |
| Date: | 2024–02–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/023&r=ure |
| By: | Gan Jin; Günther G. Schulze (Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg) |
| Abstract: | Can colonialism affect today’s urban outcomes? This paper examines the long-run impact of Concessions - foreign-run enclaves established in the late nineteenth century inside Chinese cities by European settlers for residence and investment purposes. They soon became the new economic hubs of their hosting cities. By using a unique dataset of geo-referenced apartment transactions and by employing a spatial regression discontinuity approach to identify the causality, we find that apartments located inside historical Concession areas command a price premium of 17% compared to similar homes just outside of the Concession boundaries. We show that the long-run economic effect of Concessions may be explained by better access to urban facilities in these areas. |
| Keywords: | Colonialism, Housing price, Urbanization, Persistence, China |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fre:wpaper:47&r=ure |
| By: | MORI Tomoya; MURAKAMI Daisuke |
| Abstract: | Many countries are expected to face rapidly declining and aging populations. Meanwhile, urbanization continues worldwide, preserving the power law for city size distribution at the country level. We have developed a spatial statistical model based on the theory of economic agglomeration to predict the future geographic distribution of the population at the 1 km grid level. The model considers growth factors for cities and grids, while maintaining the power law for city size distribution at the country level. Japan is an ideal case study of a shrinking economy. It highlights the challenges that the rest of Asia and the world are likely to face. Cities in aging regions will decline more rapidly, shifting the center of gravity of the country's population distribution. Smaller cities are more vulnerable to population decline, but with declining transportation and communication costs, even large cities are not immune to elimination. The future urban economy will revolve around fewer and more distant larger cities. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:24028&r=ure |
| By: | Umut Unal; Bernd Hayo; Isil Erol |
| Abstract: | We are grateful to the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation for partially funding the acquisition of data from the Regional Real Estate Information System (RIWIS) and to Duncan Roth of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) for providing us with the early unemployment rate series at the district level in Germany. We would also like to thank the participants at the Southwestern Society of Economists in association with the Federation of Business Disciplines, held in Houston, TX, 8-11 March 2023, for helpful comments and the organizers of that conference for awarding us the ‘McGraw Hill / Irwin Distinguished Paper Award’. We would also like to thank the participants of the AsRES GCREC Joint International Real Estate Conference in Hong Kong SAR, the MAGKS Workshop in Rauischholzhausen and the research seminars at Toyo University in Tokyo and Masaryk University in Brno. Finally, we thank the anonymous reviewers and the editor for their insightful comments and suggestions. |
| Keywords: | Immigration; Housing prices; Rents; Instrumental variable; IV quantile regression; German housing market |
| JEL: | J61 R23 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/368061&r=ure |
| By: | Charlotte Liotta (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, TU - Technical University of Berlin / Technische Universität Berlin); Paolo Avner (World Bank Group); Vincent Viguié (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Harris Selod (World Bank Group); Stephane Hallegatte (World Bank Group) |
| Abstract: | Opposition to climate policies is partly due to their impacts on inequality. But with most economic studies focused on income inequalities, the quantitative spatial effect of economic climate policy instruments is poorly understood. Here, using a model derived from the standard urban model of urban economics, we simulate a fuel tax in Cape Town, South Africa, decomposing its impacts by income class, housing type, and location, and over different timeframes, assuming that agents gradually adapt. We find that in the short term, there are both income and spatial inequalities, with low-income households or suburban dwellers more negatively impacted. These inequalities persist in the medium and long terms, as the poorest households, living in informal or subsidized housing, have few or no ways to adapt to fuel price increases by changing housing type, size or location, or transportation mode. Lowincome households living in formal housing are also impacted by the tax over the long term due to complex effects driven by competition with richer households in the housing market. Complementary policies promoting a flexible labor market, affordable public transportation, or subsidies that help lowincome households live closer to employment centers will be key to the social acceptability of climate policies. |
| Keywords: | Urban Economics, Land Use - Transport Integrated Models, Fuel Taxation, Emission Mitigation, Redistributive Impacts, Housing Markets |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04447509&r=ure |
| By: | Yan, Xiaoqin; Bao, Honglin; Leppard, Tom; Davis, Andrew |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the cultural ties in American sociology defined by the shared usage of cultural symbols across schools. Cultural symbols are operationalized as research focuses from the dissertations of a school’s graduates. We construct a unique pairwise dataset including 6, 441 school pairs across 114 schools, detailing their dyadic relationships (e.g., geographical co-residence) and cultural proximity inferred from dissertations. We build a socio-cultural network where a school sends a tie to another when their proximity is sufficiently high. We design information theory-driven computational linguistic methods to identify gatekeeping symbols co-used by reciprocally connected schools within the same cultural niche, differentiating them from other schools in the network. Our findings reveal two major school clusters and their research trajectories, with one representing dominant trends in relatively esoteric areas like sociology of culture, economic life, organizations, and politics and the other a more explicit focus on social problems. Employing dyadic-cluster-robust inference with school-fixed effects, we discern key determinants that shape cultural convergence and distinction, including school prestige, geographical co-residence, and institutional classification. In sum, our study proposes a pipeline for measuring the strengths and symbols of cultural ties across schools and understanding the factors that influence the development of duality between schools and schools of thought. |
| Date: | 2024–02–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qvyj8&r=ure |
| By: | Aizawa, Hiroki; Kono, Tatsuhito |
| Abstract: | Local governments have recently adopted place-based policies in order to revitalize decayed shopping areas in downtown areas. Developing a multipurpose shopping model, we quantitatively evaluate the welfare impacts of place-based policies for downtown retail agglomeration. In the model, retail stores are under monopolistic competition, and households are free to choose where to reside. Results show that, whether or not place-based policies are efficient depends on the recipients of government subsidies, even if the policies promote retail agglomeration in downtown areas. We show that the total benefits of location subsidies to households and location subsidies to stores are 566 and −342 million JPY per year, respectively. |
| Keywords: | Agglomeration; Monopolistic competition; Multipurpose shopping; Place-based policy. |
| JEL: | L1 R3 R48 |
| Date: | 2024–02–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120113&r=ure |
| By: | David N. Figlio; Cassandra Hart; Krzysztof Karbownik |
| Abstract: | Using a rich dataset that merges student-level school records with birth records, and leveraging three alternative identification strategies, we explore how increase in access to charter schools in twelve districts in Florida affects students remaining in traditional public schools (TPS). We consistently find that competition stemming from the opening of new charter schools improves reading—but not math—performance and it also decreases absenteeism of students who remain in the TPS. Results are modest in magnitude. |
| JEL: | H75 I21 I22 I28 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32120&r=ure |
| By: | Ferguson, Beth; Sanguinetti, Angela |
| Abstract: | Micromobility—transportation using lightweight vehicles such as bicycles or scooters—has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, traffic congestion, and air pollution, particularly when it is used to replace private vehicle use and for first- and last-mile travel in conjunction with public transit. The design of the built environment in and around public transit stations plays a key role in the integration of public transit and micromobility. The San Francisco Bay Area is a potential testbed for innovative and adaptive transit station design features that support micromobility, since it has relatively high public transit and shared micromobility usage, as well as high micromobility usage rates for trips to and from transit. The region’s Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) heavy rail stations are in the operation zone of seven shared micromobility operators. |
| Keywords: | Architecture |
| Date: | 2024–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt4tr5c0dm&r=ure |
| By: | Dessouky, Maged; Mahtab, Zuhayer |
| Abstract: | Ridesharing can help reduce traffic congestion, greenhouse gas emissions and increase accessibility to transportation in major metropolitan areas across the United States. A robust rideshare system needs to take uncertainties such as traffic congestion and passenger cancellations into account. In this report, the authors propose a data-driven stochastic rideshare system that integrates those sources of uncertainties. Instead of assuming a probability distribution, the approach learns the underlying distribution in travel times and passenger cancellations from historical data. The authors first provide a mathematical model of the problem. Later they propose a stochastic average approximation approach for solving the routing and flexible pickup and drop-off selection problem. They also propose a Branch-and-Price heuristic and Adaptive Large Neighborhood Search-basedmetaheuristic to solve the underlying rideshare routing problem. To validate the approach, the authors construct test cases based on the New York City taxicab dataset. Numerical results show that the proposed branch and price-based solution approach can efficiently solve small instances while being close to the true optimum. On the other hand, the ALNS-based approach can solve medium to large instances with a small computational time budget while being robust to uncertainties. The proposed approach can help transportation officials and rideshare planners design more robust rideshare systems to alleviate traffic congestion in California. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Rideshare, Routing, Stochastic Optimization |
| Date: | 2024–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt2s1487wk&r=ure |
| By: | Konstantin A. Kholodilin; Sebastian Kohl; Florian Müller |
| Abstract: | Housing bubbles and crashes are catastrophic events for economies, implying enormous destruction of housing wealth, financial default risks, construction unemployment, and business cycle downturns. This paper investigates whether governmental housing policies can affect economies’ propensity to build up speculative house price bubbles. Specifically, we focus on the liberalization effects of rent and credit regulation as well as homeownership and austerity policies. Drawing on a long-run time series from 16 countries since 1870, we identify speculative price bubbles through explosive root tests, corroborated by a narrative approach. Estimating logit models, we find that tighter rent and credit controls make bubbles less likely to emerge by dampening price increases, while certain homeownership and tenant subsidies and government austerity increase the likelihood of bubbles. The paper illustrates the logic of rent, credit, homeownership and austerity effects with two case studies. |
| Keywords: | speculative house price bubbles, rent control, homeowner taxation, explosive roots, panel data logit model |
| JEL: | C43 O18 R38 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2061&r=ure |
| By: | Felipe M. Gonçalves; Elisa Jácome; Emily K. Weisburst |
| Abstract: | How does immigration enforcement affect public safety? Heightened enforcement could reduce crime by deterring and incapacitating immigrant offenders or, alternatively, increase crime by discouraging victims from reporting offenses. We study the U.S. Secure Communities program, which expanded interior enforcement against unauthorized immigrants. Using national survey data, we find that the program reduced the likelihood that Hispanic victims reported crimes to police and increased the victimization of Hispanics. Total reported crimes are unchanged, masking these opposing effects. We provide evidence that reduced Hispanic reporting is the key driver of increased victimization. Our findings underscore the importance of trust in institutions as a central determinant of public safety. |
| JEL: | J15 K37 K42 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32109&r=ure |
| By: | Camilo Pereira, Ana Paula; Boldrine Abrita, Mateus; Rondina Neto, Angelo; Amorim Souza Centuriao, Daniel; Stradiotto Vignandi, Rafaella; Espíndola Junior, Guilherme; Marques, Nelagley; Aparecida de Moraes Weber, Vanessa; Franco Maciel, Ruberval |
| Abstract: | The Latin American Integration Route (RILA) is a bioceanic road under implementation that aims to connect the state of Mato Grosso do Sul to the ports of Northern Chile for the flow of Brazilian production. Thus, this work aims to present a correlated analysis theoretically and analytically on the modals of transportation infrastructure currently installed in the spatial clipping of part of the RILA road, which is the state of Mato Grosso do Sul. Thus, it is understood that transportation activities constitute a strategic sector of the economy, giving mobility and integration to the most diverse production and distribution chains of goods, as well as the displacement of people through the territory. From this perspective, the analyses and data presented seek to contribute to the specific approach related to the importance of transport systems and the infrastructure network of territorial circulation in the spatial scope of RILA, envisioning the need to promote public policies articulated to long-term planning, offering theoretical and technical subsidies that enable the economic dynamics that this transport corridor can foster in all its articulation scales. |
| Keywords: | RILA; territorial circulation; transportation, logistics, Mato Grosso do Sul |
| JEL: | R42 R58 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120003&r=ure |
| By: | ITF |
| Abstract: | Like-for-like replacement of fossil-fuel-powered vehicles by identical electric-powered vehicles is thought to be the main uptake pathway for electric vehicle (EV) uptake. However, what characterises global passenger and freight EV markets is the emerging uptake of smaller, lighter and shorter-ranged vehicle types specially designed for urban areas. A shift towards a broader EV uptake could be an opportunity for more sustainable and electric urban mobility systems – with comparatively lower electricity and charging infrastructure demand and battery materials needs, lower emissions and safer city streets. This report identifies the main use cases that could be part of such a broader and sustainable EV uptake. It also quantifies the sustainability impacts of different EV uptake scenarios that vary in vehicle fleet composition and degrees of electrification ambition. Finally, it gives recommendations on how authorities could leverage the passenger and freight EV transition for more sustainable cities. |
| Date: | 2023–09–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:123-en&r=ure |
| By: | McNamara, Sarah; Neidhöfer, Guido; Lehnert, Patrick |
| Abstract: | We estimate intergenerational mobility of education for people born 1940-1999 at the subnational level for 40 European countries. The result is a panel of mobility indices for 105 mesoregions (NUTS1), and 215 microregions (NUTS2). We use these indices to make three contributions. First, we describe the geography of intergenerational mobility in Europe. Second, adapting a novel weighting procedure based on cohorts' relative economic contribution, we transform cohort-linked measures into annual measures of intergenerational mobility for each region. Third, we investigate the relationship between intergenerational mobility and innovation, and find robust evidence that higher mobility is associated with increased innovation. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational Mobility, Equality of Opportunity, Human Capital, Innovation, Regional Economic Performance, Europe |
| JEL: | D63 I24 J62 O15 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:283012&r=ure |
| By: | Jeffry Frieden (Harvard University); Richard S.Grossman (Department of Economics, Wesleyan University); Daniel Lowery (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | We investigate how Reconstruction affected Black political participation and socioeconomic advancement after the American Civil War. We use the location of federal troops and Freedmen’s Bureau offices to indicate more intensive federal enforcement of civil rights. We find greater political empowerment and socio-economic advances by Blacks where Reconstruction was more rigorously enforced and that those effects persisted at least until the early twentieth century, although these advances were weaker in cotton-plantation zones. We suggest a mechanism leading from greater Black political power to higher local property taxes, through to higher levels of Black schooling and greater Black socio-economic achievement. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wes:weswpa:2024-003&r=ure |
| By: | Denis Fernandes Alves; Raul da Mota Silveira; Andre Luis Squarize Chagas; Tatiane Almeida de Menezes |
| Abstract: | [This study addresses COVID-19 infection and its relationship with the city's constructive intensity, commuting time to work, and labor market dynamics during the lockdown period. Microdata from formal workers in the city of Recife are used, adjusting a probability model for disease contraction. We identified positive and significant relationships between these urban characteristics and increased contagion, controlling for various factors such as neighborhood, individual characteristics, comorbidities, occupations, and economic activities. Our results indicate that greater distance to employment increases the probability of infection. The same applies to constructive intensity, suggesting that residences in denser areas, such as apartments in buildings, condominiums, and informal settlements, elevate the chances of contracting the disease. It is also observed that formal workers with completed higher education have lower infection risks, while healthcare professionals on the frontline of combating the disease face higher risks. Overall, the lockdown was effective in reducing contagion by limiting people's mobility during the specified period.] |
| Keywords: | Commuting; floor-area-ratio (FAR); lockdown; COVID-19; Recife |
| JEL: | C38 C21 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spa:wpaper:2024wpecon07&r=ure |
| By: | Adamopoulou, Effrosyni; Greenwood, Jeremy; Guner, Nezih; Kopecky, Karen A. |
| Abstract: | The role of friends in the US opioid epidemic is examined. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health (Add Health), adults aged 25-34 and their high school best friends are focused on. An instrumental variable technique is employed to estimate peer effects in opioid misuse. Severe injuries in the previous year are used as an instrument for opioid misuse in order to estimate the causal impact of someone misusing opioids on the probability that their best friends also misuse. The estimated peer effects are significant: Having a best friend with a reported serious injury in the previous year increases the probability of own opioid misuse by around 7 percentage points in a population where 17 percent ever misuses opioids. The effect is driven by individuals without a college degree and those who live in the same county as their best friends. |
| Keywords: | opioid, peer-group effects, friends, instrumental variables, Add Health, severe injuries |
| JEL: | C26 D10 I12 J11 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:283015&r=ure |
| By: | Yifan Gong; Todd R. Stinebrickner; Ralph Stinebrickner; Yuxi Yao |
| Abstract: | We examine the initial post-college geographic location decisions of students from hometowns in the Appalachian region that often lack substantial high-skilled job opportunities, focusing on the role of non-pecuniary considerations. Novel survey questions in the spirit of the contingent valuation approach allow us to measure the full non-pecuniary benefits of each relevant geographic location, in dollar equivalents. A new specification test is designed and implemented to provide evidence about the quality of these non-pecuniary measures. Supplementing perceived location choice probabilities and expectations about pecuniary factors with our new non-pecuniary measures allows us to estimate a stylized model of location choice and obtain a comprehensive understanding of the importance of pecuniary and non-pecuniary factors. We also combine the non-pecuniary measures with realized location and earnings outcomes to characterize inequality in overall welfare. |
| JEL: | J0 J32 J38 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32127&r=ure |
| By: | Seunghoon Lee (University of Missouri) |
| Abstract: | While flood damage is determined by both flood intensity and population exposure, the US has predominantly focused on managing the former, with limited success. This paper studies whether a Home Seller Disclosure Requirement can reduce flood exposure and thus flood damage. Leveraging two quasi-experimental variations of the policy, I first show that mandating flood risk disclosure lowers the population living in high-risk areas. Further, using a hydrological measure of flood intensity, I find that it reduces the probability of flood damage by 31 percent. These findings illustrate that easing information frictions can promote voluntary adaptation to natural disasters. |
| Keywords: | Natural disaster, Disclosure, Adaptation, Damage function |
| JEL: | D83 Q51 Q54 R21 R23 R28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:umc:wpaper:2402&r=ure |
| By: | Peter Haan; Izabela Wnuk |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of increasing foreign staffing on the labor market outcomes of native workers in the German long-term care sector. Using administrative social security data covering the universe of long-term care workers and policy-induced exogenous variation, we find that increased foreign staffing reduces labor shortages but has diverging implications for the careers of native workers in the sector. While it causes a transition of those currently employed to jobs with better working conditions, higher wages, and non-manual tasks, it simultaneously diminishes re-employment prospects for the unemployed natives with LTC experience. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, shift-share instrument, long-term care, EU Enlargement |
| JEL: | J61 I11 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2070&r=ure |
| By: | Lopes, João; Martins, Pedro S.; Oliveira, Célia; Ferreira, João; Oliveira, João Tiago; Crato, Nuno |
| Abstract: | Many children in primary grades show difficulties with reading fluency, hardly reading text or doing it effortfully and fruitlessly, making intervention programs for struggling readers a priority for researchers and schools. This paper analyzes the results of a reading intervention program for 182 second grade struggling readers from public schools. Students received a multi-component program, including repeated readings, word recognition, morphological analysis, text interpretation, and writing skills. Participants received about fifty 45-minute intervention sessions over the school year. Using a difference-in-differences, quasi-experimental within-group longitudinal design (three-point measurements), we found that the intervention group progressed significantly faster than a classmate control group in all reading outcomes (speed, accuracy, and expressiveness). By the end of the school year, differences between the intervention and control groups in accuracy and expressiveness become small but are still large in reading speed. |
| Keywords: | struggling readers, intervention program, reading speed, accuracy, expressiveness, difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | I21 I26 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1394&r=ure |
| By: | Provan, James Albert; Lane, Laura; Horne Rowan, Jessica |
| Abstract: | People who use wheelchairs can benefit in many ways from living in homes which are designed to meet their needs. They can enjoy a much greater independence and ability to do everyday tasks such as showering, cooking, using all areas of the house and garden, being able to work, and using all the amenities of their home. This can lead to an overall increase in their confidence and wellbeing, including engagement in social and community life. Accessible homes can also be much safer, reducing risks of accidents or falls at home, and considerably reduce the need for other people to be regularly available to assist with everyday life – including family members, informal carers, or local authority care and support staff. Recent proposals to change planning regulations will mean, once implemented, that all new homes are required to meet an inclusive design standard called the ‘accessible and adaptable design standard’, which is set out in building regulations in ‘Approved Document M’. This has been widely welcomed by many disabled people and others, as it will provide homes that can be adapted to meet many of the changing needs of households over time. But there are still no regulations which require the building of a basic proportion of new homes to a standard which meets the needs of wheelchair users. LSE Housing and Communities were commissioned by Habinteg Housing Association to review the existing evidence around the potential benefits to individual wheelchair users and the public purse of increasing the availability of wheelchair accessible housing to meet current needs, and compare those benefits to the additional costs of building to that accessible standard. We also interviewed 17 wheelchair users about their experiences of living in, or their lack of, accessible housing. |
| Keywords: | housing; disability; wheelchair user; cost-benefit analysis; qualitative research; accessibility; new build |
| JEL: | I30 |
| Date: | 2023–09–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121508&r=ure |
| By: | John J. Donohue; Alex Oktay; Amy L. Zhang; Matthew Benavides |
| Abstract: | We study the opposing deterrent and enabling effects of guns carried by law-abiding citizens on violent crime, using the location of shooting ranges as an instrument. Our incident-level data based on admittedly imperfect data from the Gun Violence Archive suggests that defensive gun use (DGU) by crime victims may decrease the probability of their injury or death, while increasing the risk of death or injury by the criminal suspects. However, in the aggregate, higher numbers of defensive gun uses—which proxies for more gun carrying and use—are associated with higher numbers of violent crimes, injuries, and fatalities among victims and suspects alike. We hypothesize that this equilibrium effect arises because more guns being carried and used by citizens produce more incentive and opportunities for criminals to acquire guns, leading to a commensurate increase in the incidence and lethality of crime. In summary, our analysis supports the conclusion that the widespread carrying and use of guns is overall more likely to enable violent crimes than to deter them. |
| JEL: | I18 K42 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32108&r=ure |
| By: | Ariel Kalil; Susan Mayer; Philip Oreopoulos; Rohen Shah |
| Abstract: | Programs that engage young children in movement and song to help them learn are popular but experimental evidence on their impact is sparse. We use an RCT to evaluate the effectiveness of Big Word Club (BWC), a classroom program that uses music and dance videos for 3-5 minutes per day to increase vocabulary. We conducted a field experiment with 818 preschool and kindergarten students in 47 schools in three U.S. states. We find that treated students scored higher on a test of words targeted by the program (0.30 SD) after four months of use and this effect persisted for two months. |
| JEL: | D91 I20 J10 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32132&r=ure |
| By: | Barbara Boelmann (University of Cologne, Department of Economics and ECONtribute: Markets Public Policy, SSC, Universitätsstraße 22, 50937 Cologne, Germany) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that the local availability of universities acted as a catalyst in the catch-up of women in higher education that has been documented for developed countries in the latter half of the 20th century. It uses the foundation of new univer- sities in the 1960s and 1970s in West German regions which previously did not have a university as a case study to understand how women’s mobility and education decisions interact. I first document women’s low regional mobility in post-war West Germany along with their low educational attainment. Second, I exploit that the university expansion exogenously brought universities to women’s doorsteps in a difference-in- differences (DiD) strategy. Comparing regions which experienced a university opening within 20 km to those where no university was opened, I show that women benefited more than men from a close-by university opening, closing the local gender gap in university education by about 72%. Third, I provide evidence that local universities partly increased university education through reduced costs, while part of the effect is due to higher expected returns, highlighting an important second channel through which universities promote education to local youths. |
| Keywords: | college gender gap, geographic mobility, university expansion |
| JEL: | I23 I24 I28 J16 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:280&r=ure |
| By: | Andersson, Angelica (Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI); ITN, Linköping University, Sweden); Kristoffersson, Ida (Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI)); Daly, Andrew (ITS, University of Leeds, United Kingdom); Börjesson, Maria (Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI); IEI, Linköping University, Sweden) |
| Abstract: | The accuracy of a transport demand model’s predictions is inherently limited by the quality of the underlying data. This issue has been highlighted by the decline in response rates for transport surveys, which have traditionally served as the primary data source for estimating transport demand models. At the same time, mobile phone network data, not requiring active participation from subjects, have become increasingly available. However, some key trip and traveller characteristics enhancing the prediction power of the estimated models are not collected in mobile phone network data. In this paper we therefore investigate what can be gained from combining mobile phone network data with travel survey data, using the strengths of each data source, to estimate long-distance mode choice models. We propose and estimate a set of mode choice demand models on joint mobile phone network data and travel survey data. We show that combining the two data sources produces more credible estimates than models estimated on each data source separately. The travel survey should preferably include the variables: travel party size, cars per household licence, licence holding, in addition to origin, destination, mode, trip purpose, age, and gender of the respondent. |
| Keywords: | Data combination; Discrete choice modelling; Latent class model; Longdistance mode choice; Mobile phone network data; Transport elasticities; Transport planning; Planning practice |
| JEL: | R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2024–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vtiwps:2024_001&r=ure |
| By: | Matthews, Ben |
| Abstract: | The paper demonstrates simulating Victimization Divides (Hunter and Tseloni, 2016) using an example from the Crime Survey for England and Wales. The simulation method is based on King et al. (2000). |
| Date: | 2024–02–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:k8j9e&r=ure |
| By: | ITF |
| Abstract: | Automation of vehicles and in the workplace is transforming the transport industry. This report investigates the impacts of automation on the workforce in urban transport. It explores ways to help the labour market transition towards automated technologies without social disruptions. The report also examines how algorithms could improve employment opportunities and job quality in the transport industry. |
| Date: | 2023–09–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:122-en&r=ure |
| By: | Xiao Chen; Hanwei Huang; Jiandong Ju; Ruoyan Sun; Jialiang Zhang |
| Abstract: | We study infectious diseases in a spatial epidemiology model with forward-looking individuals who weigh disease environments against economic opportunities when moving across regions. This endogenous mobility allows regions to share risk and health resources, resulting in positive epidemiological externalities for regions with high R0s. We develop the Normalized Hat Algebra to analyze disease and mobility dynamics. Applying our model to US data, we find that cross-state mobility controls that hinder risk and resource sharing increase COVID-19 deaths and decrease social welfare. Conversely, by enabling "self-containment" and "self-healing, " endogenous mobility reduces COVID-19 infections by 27.6% and deaths by 22.1%. |
| Keywords: | SIRD model, spatial economy, endogenous mobility, basic reproduction number, Normalized Hat Algebra, containment policies, Covid-19 |
| Date: | 2024–02–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1981&r=ure |
| By: | Andrew McLennan (School of Economics, University of Queensland); Shino Takayama (School of Economics, University of Queensland); Yuki Tamura (Center for Behavioral Institutional Design, NYU Abu Dhabi) |
| Abstract: | We show that the application of the Generalized Constrained Probabilistic Serial mechanism of Balbuzanov (2022) (which generalizes the Probabilistic Serial mechanism of Bogomolnaia and Moulin (2001)) to school choice has attractive properties. The mechanism is intuitively simple, assigning to each student, at each moment in the unit interval, probability of receiving a seat in her favorite school among those that are available then. It is sd-efficient and effectively strategy proof. We provide an algorithm, based on a generalization of Hall’s marriage theorem, for computing the mechanism, which has been implemented, and seems likely to have reasonable running times even for the world’s largest school choice problems. |
| Keywords: | School Choice, Object Allocation, Efficiency, Fairness, Strategy Proofness, Probabilistic Serial Mechanism, Hall’s Marriage Theorem.; School Choice, Object Allocation, Efficiency, Fairness, Strategy Proofness, Probabilistic Serial Mechanism, Hall’s Marriage Theorem |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qld:uq2004:668&r=ure |
| By: | ITF |
| Abstract: | How young people use transport matters for society. Transport connects them to education, work, friends and other opportunities. Mobility patterns of the younger generation also matter for sustainability, economic development, liveability, health and well-being. Yet, young people’s views are rarely factored into transport policy explicitly. This report addresses the gap by reviewing young citizens’ travel patterns and behaviours, identifying their expectations regarding mobility and life opportunities and investigating their mobility-relevant experiences, capabilities and skills. To maximise the potential of youth, it is important that governments, communities, and other stakeholders ensure all young people have access to safe and affordable transport. It is also important to engage young people in the planning and implementation of transport initiatives so that their needs are met. |
| Date: | 2024–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:128-en&r=ure |
| By: | OKOSHI Hirofumi; MUKUNOKI Hiroshi |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the effects of network externality on the policy competition between two countries regarding their attempts to attract a multinational enterprise (MNE). The two countries have different numbers of consumers and endogenously set a tax/subsidy on the MNE. The larger country has a local firm with a large market. Network externality makes the larger country with the local firm more attractive to the MNE because the resulting larger supply amplifies the network size. The MNE's location in the larger country can also benefit the local firm despite fiercer competition with the MNE while also benefiting consumers in all countries. Fiscal competition increases the likelihood of a larger country hosting the MNE when the network externality is large, but it promotes the MNE's location in a small country when the network externality is small. A location change from a smaller to a larger country, induced by fiscal competition, improves both countries' welfare or their joint welfare when the network externality is significant. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:24024&r=ure |
| By: | Massimo Bordignon (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Tommaso Colussi (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Francesco Porcelli |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates the impact of populist governments on public policies and finances. We focus on Italian local governments (i.e. municipalities) over the 2010-2019 period, when a populists, i.e. the Five Stars Movement, became the most voted party in the country. We first document that the re-election probability of incumbent mayors drops by half when they are populist. While populist mayors are not less qualified than mainstream parties, they are significantly younger and less experienced. Estimates from a stacked diff-in-diff design comparing early to not-yet treated municipalities show that the populist government experience significantly worsen municipal finances. Populist mayors also fail to promote social and environmental policies that align with the political demands of their voters, possibly contributing to their difficulties in securing re-election. |
| Keywords: | Populism, Local Governments, Fiscal Policy, Inequality. |
| JEL: | H70 H72 P43 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie1:def132&r=ure |
| By: | Hafsa Nawaz; Sarah Maham (School of Economics and Social Sciences, IBA Karachi) |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aho:ibaess:wpsil1&r=ure |
| By: | Aaron A. Moore; Alexandra Caporale (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the continued relevance of statutorily required public hearings as effective forums for participation in planning in Canada, and whether provincial and municipal governments should seek to reform or remove them from the planning process. We examine the entire rezoning and amendment process in four cities: Toronto and Brampton in Ontario, and Vancouver and Surrey in British Columbia, by drawing on the findings of our earlier study (Moore and Caporale 2023) and an additional 27 interviews we conducted with stakeholders familiar with the respective planning processes. Based on our analysis, we find that statutory public hearings are a necessary part of the planning process, but in their current form are ineffectual forums for public participation. We suggest several reforms to address their current failings. |
| Keywords: | urban planning; urban politics; Canada; public hearings; public consultation, public participation |
| JEL: | P11 Z18 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mfg:wpaper:66&r=ure |
| By: | Jonathan Colmer; Suvy Qin; John Voorheis; Reed Walker |
| Abstract: | This paper uses administrative tax records linked to Census demographic data and high-resolution measures of fine small particulate (PM2.5) exposure to study the evolution of the Black-White pollution exposure gap over the past 40 years. In doing so, we focus on the various ways in which income may have contributed to these changes using a statistical decomposition. We decompose the overall change in the Black-White PM2.5 exposure gap into (1) components that stem from rank-preserving compression in the overall pollution distribution and (2) changes that stem from a reordering of Black and White households within the pollution distribution. We find a significant narrowing of the Black-White PM2.5 exposure gap over this time period that is overwhelmingly driven by rank-preserving changes rather than positional changes. However, the relative positions of Black and White households at the upper end of the pollution distribution have meaningfully shifted in the most recent years. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10895&r=ure |
| By: | Hope Harvey; Kristin L. Perkins |
| Abstract: | With a record number of older adults facing housing affordability challenges, shared households may provide an important private housing safety net if other household members contribute to housing costs. Using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, we describe the prevalence and characteristics of older adults’ shared households (defined as those that include any adult besides the householder and householder’s romantic partner). This includes intergenerational households and co-residence with other extended family and non-kin. We explore the safety net function of shared households by examining whether and how much older adults contribute towards shared housing costs, and how this varies across household types. These descriptive analyses improve our understanding of the composition and potential financial impacts of shared households for older adults. |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:crrwps:wp2023-16&r=ure |
| By: | Laatsit, Mart (CIRCLE, Lund University); Boschma, Ron (Utrecht University) |
| Abstract: | Policy networks are an important source of information for policy making. Yet, we have only a limited understanding of how policy networks are structured among innovation policy makers and which factors shape their structure. This paper studies how proximities can explain what drives the connections in policy networks. More specifically, we look at innovation policy networks between EU member states. We use social network analysis based on our own data to map the networks of the 28 EU innovation policy directors, consisting of 756 potential connections, and study the proximities shaping these networks. Geographical and cultural proximity turn out to be strong predictors for symmetric and asymmetric ties, but we do not find a relationship between policy proximity (in terms of similarities in business environment regulations and innovation policy) and policy network formation between countries. |
| Keywords: | Innovation policy; policy networks; proximities; policy proximity; social network analysis |
| JEL: | O33 O38 |
| Date: | 2024–02–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2024_003&r=ure |
| By: | Matthias Flückiger; Mario Larch; Markus Ludwig; Luigi Pascali |
| Abstract: | In the latter half of the fourth millennium BC, our ancestors witnessed a remarkable transformation, progressing from simple agrarian villages to complex urban civilizations. In regions as far apart as the Nile Valley, Mesopotamia, Central Asia, and the Indus Valley, the first states appeared together with writing, cities with populations exceeding 10, 000, and unprecedented socio-economic inequalities. The cause of this “Urban Revolution†remains unclear. We present new empirical evidence suggesting that the discovery of bronze and the ensuing long-distance trade played a crucial role. Using novel panel data and 2SLS techniques, we demonstrate that trade corridors linking metal mines to fertile lands were more likely to experience the Urban Revolution. We propose that transit bottlenecks facilitated the emergence of a new taxing elite. We formally test this appropriability theory and provide several case studies in support. |
| JEL: | D02 F10 H10 N40 O43 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1878&r=ure |
| By: | Ganglmair, Bernhard; Helmers, Christian; Love, Brian J. |
| Abstract: | Because judges exercise discretion in how they handle and decide cases, heterogeneity across judges can affect case outcomes and, thus, preferences among litigants for particular judges. However, selection obscures the causal mechanisms that drive these preferences. We overcome this challenge by studying the introduction of random case assignment in a venue (the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas) that previously experienced a high degree of case concentration before one judge (Alan Albright), whom litigants could select with virtual certainty. To assess Albright's importance to patent enforcers, we examine how case filing patterns changed following the adoption of random case allocation and show that case filings in the Western District of Texas decreased significantly at both the intensive and extensive margins. Moreover, to shed light on why litigants prefer Judge Albright, we compare motions practice and case management metrics across randomly assigned cases and show that cases assigned to Albright were both scheduled to proceed to trial relatively quickly and less likely to raise the issue of patentable subject matter. |
| Keywords: | Judicial assignments, judge shopping, forum shopping, litigation, patents, U.S |
| JEL: | K4 O3 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:283013&r=ure |
| By: | Syrengelas, Konstantinos; Cheptea, Angela; Hucket, Marilyne |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats23:339539&r=ure |
| By: | Alan Manning; Graham Mazeine |
| Abstract: | Return migration is important, but how many migrants leave and who is poorly understood. This paper proposes a new method for estimating return migration rates using aggregated repeated cross-sectional data, treating the number of migrants in a group who arrived in a particular year as an unobserved fixed effect, and the observed number (including, importantly, observed zeroes) in the arrival or subsequent years as observations from a Poisson distribution. Compared to existing methods, this allows us to estimate return rates for many more migrant groups, allowing more in-depth analysis of the factors that influence return migration rates. We apply this method to US data and find a decreasing hazard, with most returns occurring by eight years after arrival, when about 13% of migrants have left. The return rate is significantly lower for women, those who arrive at a young age, and those from poorer; it is higher for those on non-immigrant visas for work or study. We also provide suggestive evidence that, conditional on their country of origin, those with lower education are more likely to return. |
| Keywords: | return migration |
| Date: | 2024–02–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1980&r=ure |
| By: | Sakketa, Tekalign Gutu |
| Abstract: | Africa is currently undergoing the most rapid urbanisation process globally, and this trend is forecast to persist in the coming decades. Many believe that this ongoing rapid urbanisation process is changing the social fabric and reshaping social cohesion. This study explores the theoretical channels through which urbanisation affects social cohesion and provides empirical evidence of their interrelationship. Specifically, the study asks: given the vast social, economic, cultural, political and environmental transformation associated with urbanisation, is there a link between urbanisation and social cohesion? Combining a novel national panel data set on social cohesion from Afrobarometer with urbanisation and other socioeconomic data from world development indicators, the study shows that urbanisation is negatively correlated with the three attributes of social cohesion, namely trust, inclusive identity, and cooperation for the common good. These associations persist even after controlling for country socioeconomic conditions and year fixed effects. Moreover, the magnitude of this association varies across attributes, with trust and inclusive identity showing a higher correlation than cooperation for the common good. Urbanisation-induced change in economic and environmental structure, such as employment, infrastructure, and pollution, are the main channels affecting social cohesion. Overall, the findings underscore the need for inclusive urban development and policies focused on ameliorating social fragmentation resulting from rapid urbanisation unfolding across Africa. |
| Keywords: | Urbanisation, social cohesion, trust, inclusive identity, cooperation for the common good, Africa |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:282980&r=ure |
| By: | Deniz Karaoglan (Gebze Technical University, Department of Economics, Kocaeli, Turkey); Serap Sagir (Middle East Technical University, Department of Economics, Ankara, Turkey); Meltem Dayioglu (Middle East Technical University, Department of Economics, Ankara, Turkey); Durdane Sirin Saracoglu (Middle East Technical University, Department of Economics, Ankara, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we investigate the relationship between mother’s education level and the development of young children in Turkey using representative microdata from the 2018 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey (TDHS). The data include detailed information about the developmental status of young children of 36-to-59 months old. We find that only when the mother has at least a high school level education, there is a positive impact on the child’s developmental status as summarized the Early Childhood Development (ECD) index, which is an index constructed based on the child’s four developmental domains. We also show that the household’s wealth is also positively associated with the child’s developmental status, particularly in the socio-emotional and the learning readiness domains. |
| Keywords: | Early Childhood Development, Mother’s education, Socioeconomic status, Turkey |
| JEL: | C5 I00 O15 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:2303&r=ure |
| By: | Ozgur Sarı (Sinop University/Sociology Department, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | Today, the number of cities participating in the child-friendly city movement is increasing both around the world and in Turkey. The main reason for this trend is the concern of creating a city image. In today's neo-liberal policies and global economy, cities have become competing actors alongside national economies. In order for a city to be privileged in this competitive environment, it must be different and attractive from other cities. For this reason, it has become popular to participate in the child-friendly city process today. The new criteria, which were blended based on the Netherlands Delft-based KISS, the South African Republic Johannesburg-based Chawla criteria, and the Francis and Lorenzo criteria, were as follows: The common and most basic criterion in all criteria is security. It is important that the city in which it is located is safe above all else. It is extremely important that children and parents feel safe in the relevant space. Therefore, the first criterion is the distance from the dangers and the safety criterion. The second important criterion is the existence of clean environment and green areas, which are as vital as security. The third common criterion is the existence of play, socialization and activity areas. The fourth criterion is accessibility and freedom of movement, and the fifth criterion is the existence of suitable, safe and accessible transportation routes, pedestrian paths and bicycle paths. Within the framework of the common criteria determined, 171 people were interviewed in game parks across Istanbul. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 171 parents who were randomly selected. During the interviews, seven demographic questions, seven open-ended questions, and five Likert-style test questions were presesnted. The results were thematically analyzed to understand whether Istanbul is a child-friendly city or not. It has been discussed what deficiencies exist for Istanbul and what needs to be done to meet the criteria. |
| Keywords: | Child Friendly Cities Initiative, Delft Criteria, Chawla Criteria |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0311&r=ure |
| By: | Samantha L. Strachan (Alabama A&M University, Normal, Alabama, USA); D'Ajanae Ballard (Alabama A&M University, Normal, Alabama, USA) |
| Abstract: | This paper will briefly expound on how a teacher preparation program, at an Historically Black College and University (HBCU), pairs graduate research assistants with mentors to support their development as teachers-in-training and burgeoning researchers. We will focus on the Black women who serve as graduate research assistants and explore how mentoring can be used as a tool to support their growth and development in academic environments. The author and co-author of this paper will serve as an example of the mentor-mentee relationship. |
| Keywords: | Black women, mentorship, HBCU, teacher education, teaching profession |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0343&r=ure |
| By: | Leogrande, Angelo; Costantiello, Alberto; Leogrande, Domenico |
| Abstract: | In the following article, we analyse the determinants of the number of physicians in the context of ISTAT BES-Benessere Equo Sostenibile data among twenty Italian regions in the period 2004-2022. We apply Panel Data with Random Effects, Panel Data with Fixed Effects, and Pooled OLS-Ordinary Least Squares. We found that the number of Physicians among Italian regions is positively associated, among others, to “Trust in the Police and Firefighters”, “Net Income Inequality”, and negatively associated, among others, to “Research and Development Intensity” and “Soil waterproofing by artificial cover”. Furthermore, we apply the k-Means algorithm optimized with the Silhouette Coefficient and we find the presence of two clusters. Finally, we confront eight different machine-learning algorithms to predict the future value of physicians and we find that the PNN-Probabilistic Neural Network is the best predictive algorithm. |
| Date: | 2023–11–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:92wnh&r=ure |
| By: | Wallace, Moira |
| Abstract: | Over the last two decades, England has seen two enormous waves of change in the government’s approach to children and young people. The first wave of change was conducted by the 1997-2010 Labour government and involved significant public spending increases, new cross-cutting approaches and large-scale national and area-based prevention programmes. The second wave of change, after 2010, was conducted first by the Coalition, then by the Conservatives, with the priority being deficit reduction and austerity across government spending, alongside reducing central government intervention and making structural changes to the school system. This report, covering the period 1997 to 2019, focuses on how these changes played out in relation to 11–18-year-olds, across a range of indicators – child poverty, attainment at age 16, post-16 participation, school exclusion, school absence, teenage pregnancy, adolescent alcohol use, adolescent drug use, and youth offending. |
| Keywords: | children; youth; young people; child poverty; adolescence; teenagers; inequality |
| JEL: | I00 |
| Date: | 2023–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121571&r=ure |
| By: | Ellora Derenoncourt; Chi Hyun Kim; Moritz Kuhn; Moritz Schularick |
| Abstract: | The difference in the average wealth of Black and white Americans narrowed in the first century after the Civil War, but remained large and even widened again after 1980. Given high levels of wealth concentration both historically and today, dynamics at the average may not capture important heterogeneity in racial wealth gaps across the distribution. This paper looks into the historical evolution of the Black and white wealth distributions since Emancipation. The picture that emerges is an even starker one than racial wealth inequality at the mean. Tracing, for the first time, the evolution of wealth of the median Black household and the gap between the typical Black and white household over time, we estimate that the majority of Black households only began to dispose of measurable wealth around World War II. While the civil rights era brought substantial wealth gains for the median Black household, the gap between Black and white wealth at the median has not changed much since the 1970s. The top and the bottom of the wealth distribution show even greater persistence, with Black households consistently over-represented in the bottom half of the wealth distribution and under-represented in the top-10% over the past seven decades. |
| Keywords: | Racial wealth inequality, distribution |
| JEL: | D31 E21 J15 N11 N12 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_507&r=ure |
| By: | Jens Ludwig; Sendhil Mullainathan; Ashesh Rambachan |
| Abstract: | We calculate the social return on algorithmic interventions (specifically their Marginal Value of Public Funds) across multiple domains of interest to economists—regulation, criminal justice, medicine, and education. Though these algorithms are different, the results are similar and striking. Each one has an MVPF of infinity: not only does it produce large benefits, it provides a “free lunch.” We do not take these numbers to mean these interventions ought to be necessarily scaled, but rather that much more R&D should be devoted to developing and carefully evaluating algorithmic solutions to policy problems. |
| JEL: | C45 C54 D61 H40 I00 K00 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32125&r=ure |
| By: | Getachew, Abis; Höckel, Lisa Sofie; Kuhnt, Jana; Muhumad, Abdirahman A.; von Schiller, Armin |
| Abstract: | In pursuit of employment opportunities and increased productivity, governments and donors have the highest ambitions for technical and vocational education and training (TVET) systems. Most prominently, TVET is expected to facilitate access to employment and a qualified workforce by offering its graduates skills that the labour market demands. Beyond its employment impacts, TVET supporters also anticipate that it will improve societal outcomes such as inclusion, gender equality and social cohesion. Access to the labour market plays an essential role in allowing displaced populations to sustain their livelihoods and to foster socio-economic integration. Long-term displacement situations and a decline in resettlement opportunities have spurred the quest for local integration in countries of first asylum. It is in this context that TVET has gained additional salience in the past decade. Does TVET live up to these promises? Overall, systematic empirical evidence on the impact of TVET is limited and often inconsistent. In terms of employment and income, evidence suggests that there is a small positive effect, but time plays an important factor. Often, impacts are only seen in the medium- to long-term, and in general, programmes tend to work better for the long-term unemployed. Evidence of societal effects is even more limited; there is a large gap of knowledge on the potential social cohesion impacts of TVET. Given the amount of funding and the high expectations found in the policy discourse, it is essential to better understand if and how TVET measures contribute to achieving their self-declared goals. In this brief, we present the results of an accompanying research study of an inclusive TVET programme implemented by the German development cooperation organisation Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) in Ethiopia. In this programme, host and refugee participants are jointly trained, with the explicit goals of fostering social cohesion and improving employment opportunities. The results indicate that while the social cohesion effect seems remarkable on several dimensions, the income and employment effect is at best weak and materialises only for specific groups of individuals. Qualitative and quantitative evidence supports the validity of the approach to achieve social cohesion. More than design or implementation problems, the lack of stronger employment effects appears to be driven by structural context conditions like limited labour market absorption capacity, legal work permission constraints, gender barriers and similar hindering factors. We derive the following main recommendations from the analysis: TVET measures need a careful context analysis (including labour market capacities, legal work barriers) to ensure that the necessary conditions for TVET to succeed are in place. This is particularly relevant in terms of employment effects, which appear to be elusive.Inclusive TVET measures seem to be an effective tool to improve social cohesion. However, if social cohesion effects are valued not just as an 'add-on' to employment effects but as primary goals, the question arises if alternative interventions might be more efficient. This question is particularly salient given the modest evidence regarding employment and income effects.The evidence base of the impact of (inclusive) TVET programmes needs to be expanded. Knowledge gaps that need to be closed include TVET's impact on displaced populations, its potential societal effects, differential gender effects, and medium- to long-term employment and income effects. |
| Keywords: | Ethiopia, GIZ, social coehsion, forced displacement and miration, TVET |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:idospb:283122&r=ure |
| By: | Dahlberg, Matz (Uppsala University); Egebark, Johan (Arbetsförmedlingen); Vikman, Ulrika (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy) |
| Abstract: | This study uses a randomized control trial (RCT) to evaluate a new program for increased labor market integration of refugees. The program has immediate and substantial short-run effects on employment, corresponding to around 15 percentage points. The effect lasts for three years but eventually fades out, as the control group catches up and reaches the long-run employment level of about 50 percent. We show that the program boosts language skills in the short run, and that this channel explains an increasing share of the effect on employment. Using survey data, we finally measure if the program affects integration in other dimensions, such as psychological, social, political, and navigational integration. Our findings suggest that faster labor market integration in the short run does not lead to increased general integration in the long run. |
| Keywords: | Refugee immigration; Multidimensional integration; Randomized control trial; Field experiment; Labor market program; Employment; |
| JEL: | C93 J08 J15 |
| Date: | 2023–12–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2023_023&r=ure |
| By: | Cederlöf, Jonas (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the consequences of job loss. While previous literature has relied on mass layof fs and plant closures for identification, I exploit discontinuities in the likelihood of dis placement generated by a last-in-first-out rule used at layof fs in Sweden. Matching data on individual layof f notifications to administrative records, I find that permanent earnings losses are only found among workers losing their job in mass layof fs, whereas workers dis placed in smaller layof fs fully recover. Auxiliary analysis suggests that large layof fs increase exposure to non-employment, prolong unemployment and cause workers to leave the labor force, conceivably by affecting the local labor market |
| Keywords: | last-in-first-out; job loss; displaced worker; mass layoff; earnings loss; |
| JEL: | J63 J64 J65 |
| Date: | 2024–02–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2024_002&r=ure |
| By: | Camila Scur, Mayara; Centuriao, Daniel; Niel Berlinck, Christian; Kelly Luciano Batista, Eugênia; Libonati, Renata; Rodrigues, Julia; Valle Nunes, André; Couto Garcia, Leticia; Fernandes, G. Wilson; Alves Damasceno-Junior, Geraldo; de Matos Martins Pereira, Alexandre; Anderson, Liana; Manuel Ochoa-Quintero, Jose; da Rosa Oliveira, Maxwell; Bandini Ribeiro, Danilo; O. Roque, Fabio |
| Abstract: | The Pantanal, the Earth's largest continuous wetland, experienced severe impacts from wildfires in 2019 and, particularly, in 2020. The surge in wildfires can be attributed to several factors, including climate extremes, inadequate fire management, ineffective policymaking, as well as commercial and demographic dynamics. Understanding the economic effects of wildfires is crucial for guiding resource allocation toward prevention and firefighting efforts. This study aims to examine the economic losses resulting from the catastrophic wildfires in the Brazilian Pantanal region during 2019 and 2020. By utilizing publicly available datasets and data obtained from representatives of public and private institutions, we constructed scenarios to simulate the fire's impacts on economic input-output matrices. Through the application of structural impact analysis, we can simulate variations in output, value-added, and income by considering demand variation scenarios resulting from external shocks. Our findings reveal that the economic impact of the wildfires extends beyond the burned areas, affecting other regions of Brazil, such as São Paulo and Paraná. The lack of a comprehensive public database encompassing different scales (municipal, state, and national), along with a clear methodology for calculating and reporting firefighting expenses, hinders accurate prediction of economic losses and impedes proactive investments in wildfire prevention. |
| Keywords: | structural impact analysis, natural disasters, input-output models, S2iD portal, tele-coupling |
| JEL: | Q15 Q57 |
| Date: | 2023–10–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119399&r=ure |
| By: | Antea Barišić; Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Michael Landesmann (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the complex interplay between technology adoption, specifically robotisation and digitalisation, and international migration within the EU and other advanced economies, including Australia, the UK, Japan, Norway and the US, over the period 2001-2019. Utilising a gravity model approach grounded in neoclassical migration theory, the study analyses how technological advancements influence migration flows. It examines two key technological variables the extent of digitalisation, represented by ICT capital per person employed, and the adoption of industrial robots, measured by the stock of robots per thousand workers. The research uniquely integrates these technological factors into migration analysis, considering both push and pull effects. Additionally, it accounts for various other migration determinants such as macroeconomic conditions, demography and policy factors. The findings reveal insightful dynamics about the relationships between technological progress, labour market conditions and migration patterns, contributing significantly to the current literature and informing future migration policies and the impact of technology adoption. |
| Keywords: | Robot adoption, digitalisation, novel innovation, migrant workers |
| JEL: | O33 F22 D24 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:242&r=ure |