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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Andrei Munteanu (Department of Economics, University of Quebec in Montreal) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of school choice on academic achievement. I use differences in the number of schools across similar Romanian towns, generating variation in school choice for local students, who compete for seats via test scores. I find that more school choice results in increased sorting of students by admission scores across different schools. Sorting widens achievement gaps between high- and low-admission score students. High-scorers having access to better teachers and peer effects are the primary factors explaining these widening gaps. Lastly, between-school competition via school choice does not increase average achievement levels. |
| Keywords: | education, school choice, sorting, inequality, peers, teachers |
| JEL: | I24 I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grc:wpaper:24-03&r=ure |
| By: | Justin Beaudoin (Department of Economics, Acadia University); Justin Tyndall (University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization and Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa) |
| Abstract: | Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems have become increasingly common in US cities. BRT stations provide a local amenity by improving transportation options for local residents, but may also represent a local nuisance due to noise or displacement of other road users. We estimate whether BRT is priced into local real estate by studying a recently opened BRT project in Vancouver, Washington. We use a difference-in-difference method with both hedonic and repeat sales estimators to test for a price effect. We estimate a 5-7% price premium for homes located within a 20 minute walk of a BRT station. Overall, BRT generated new real estate value that exceeded the project’s construction costs by a factor of six. We discuss how government could leverage future residential property value increases to fund construction of BRT projects. |
| Keywords: | Transportation, Transit, Bus Rapid Transit, Real Estate |
| JEL: | R30 R32 R38 R40 R42 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hae:wpaper:2023-3&r=ure |
| By: | Andrei Munteanu |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of school choice on academic achievement, by using differences in the number of schools across similar Romanian towns, generating variation in school choice for local students, who compete for seats via test scores. The author finds that more school choice results in increased sorting of students by admission scores across different schools. Sorting widens achievement gaps between high- and low-admission score students. High-scorers having access to better teachers and peer effects are the primary factors explaining these widening gaps. Lastly, between-school competition via school choice does not increase average achievement levels. |
| Keywords: | education, schoolchoice, sorting, inequality, peers, teachers. |
| JEL: | I24 I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsi:creeic:2401&r=ure |
| By: | Shawn Berry |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this article is to propose a novel model of the effects of changes in shelter and driving costs on car commuting distances in the overheated Toronto housing market from 2011 to 2016. The model borrows from theoretical concepts of microeconomics and urban geography to examine the Toronto housing market. Using 2011 and 2016 Census data for census metropolitan areas (CMAs) and census agglomerations (CAs) in Southern Ontario and computed driving costs, the model of car commuting distance is based on variables of allocation of monthly household income to monthly shelter costs and driving costs as a function of the car driving distance to Toronto. Using this model, we can predict the effect on car commuting distance due to changes in any of the variables. The model also offers an explanation for communities of Toronto car commuters beyond a driving radius that we might expect for daily commuting. The model confirms that increases in shelter costs in the Toronto housing market from 2011 to 2016 have forced the boundaries of feasible housing locations outward, and forced households to move farther away, thus increasing car commuting distance. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.11343&r=ure |
| By: | Redding, Stephen J. |
| Abstract: | Economic activity is highly unevenly distributed within cities, as reflected in the concentration of economic functions in specific locations, such as finance in the Square Mile in London. The extent to which this concentration reflects natural advantages versus agglomeration forces is central to a range of public policy issues, including the impact of local taxation and transport infrastructure improvements. This paper reviews recent quantitative urban models, which incorporate both differences in natural advantages and agglomeration forces and can be taken directly to observed data on cities. We show that these models can be used to estimate the strength of agglomeration forces and evaluate the impact of transportation infrastructure improvements on welfare and the spatial distribution of economic activity. |
| Keywords: | cities; commuting; transportation; urban economics |
| JEL: | R00 |
| Date: | 2023–01–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121373&r=ure |
| By: | Lavecchia, Adam M. (McMaster University); Oreopoulos, Philip (University of Toronto); Spencer, Noah (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | This study finds substantial reductions to criminal activity from the introduction of a comprehensive high school support program for disadvantaged youth living in the largest public housing project in Toronto. The program, called Pathways to Education, bundles supports such as regular coaching, tutoring, group activities, free public transportation tickets and bursaries for postsecondary education. In this paper, we use a difference-in-differences approach that compares students living in public housing communities where the program was offered to those living in communities where the program was not offered over time. We find that eligibility for Pathways reduces the likelihood of being charged with a crime by 32 percent at its Regent Park location. This effect is driven by a reduction in charges for breaking and entering, theft, mischief, other traffic offenses and Youth Criminal Justice Act offenses. |
| Keywords: | youth programs, education and crime, at-risk youth |
| JEL: | I24 I26 I28 L31 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16724&r=ure |
| By: | Martin Iseringhausen |
| Abstract: | We study the role of regional housing markets in the transmission of US monetary policy. Using a FAVAR model over 1999q1–2019q4, we find sizeable heterogeneity in the responses of US states to a contractionary monetary policy shock. Part of this regional variation is due to differences in housing supply elasticities, household debt overhang, and housing wealth (volatility). Our analysis indicates that house prices and consumption respond more in supply-inelastic states and in states with large household debt imbalances, where negative housing wealth effects bite more strongly and borrowing constraints become more binding. Moreover, financial stability risks increase sharply in these areas as mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures surge, worsening banks’ balance sheets. Finally, monetary policy may have a stronger effect on housing tenure decisions in supply-inelastic states, where the homeownership rate and price-to-rent ratios decline by more. Our findings stress the importance of regional housing supply conditions in assessing the macrofinancial effects of rising interest rates. |
| Keywords: | Credit conditions, FAVAR, house prices, monetary policy, regional data, supply elasticities |
| JEL: | C23 E32 E52 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–02–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stm:wpaper:59&r=ure |
| By: | Goehausen, Johannes (Leibniz Univeristät Hannover); Thomsen, Stephan L. (Leibniz University of Hannover) |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of rental price changes on college enrollment rates. We exploit cross-district variation in the size and timing of local rental price booms in Germany during the 2010s. A one standard deviation increase in apartment rents decreased per-capita college enrollment by 1.1 percentage points on average. The effect was driven by first-year students moving long distances and was more pronounced in less densely populated locations. Housing costs - the largest component of students' expenditures and an important location factor - have contributed to the slowdown in higher education expansion and reduced the skill-binding effect of universities, exacerbating regional inequality. |
| Keywords: | college enrollments, housing market, apartment rents |
| JEL: | I23 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16726&r=ure |
| By: | Ben Gilbert (Department of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines); Hannah Gagarin (Department of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines); Ben Hoen (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory) |
| Abstract: | The goals of this paper are twofold: we first aim to quantify the impact of US wind development on local communities in terms of earnings and employment for workers and establishments. Second, we examine and then illustrate how the use of data aggregated to arbitrary spatial units (i.e., counties) can lead to biased economic impact estimates. We accomplish these goals using disaggregated, geocoded data on the universe of workers and establishments from 23 states who participated in their state’s unemployment insurance program. We compare estimates of regional economic spillovers from aggregating this data in two ways. First, we aggregate to increasing 20-mile rings around the location of wind projects (and matched control locations) and estimate impacts in a difference-in-differences framework. Second, we aggregate to the county level and then use county centroids to further aggregate county-level data to increasing 20-mile rings before re-estimating the same specifications. We find that the average wind project causes employment at establishments within 20 miles to increase by between 3.5 to 4.5 percent, whereas we find no discernible average effect on employment at greater distances, or for earnings at any distance. We find that the employment effect persists for as many as four years after the project arrives. Using worker data, we find employment and earnings effects of similar aggregate magnitude, but spread across further distances from the wind project. This is consistent with wind development spurring economic activity at nearby establishments, which improves employment prospects for workers who may commute to those establishments. Results using county-aggregated data are much smaller and mostly statistically insignificant. This has implications not just for policymakers, but for researchers who aim to continue to understand how burgeoning energy sectors such as wind impact local areas. |
| Keywords: | wind power, employment, income, geographic spillovers |
| JEL: | J2 J3 Q4 R12 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mns:wpaper:wp202301&r=ure |
| By: | Amine C-L. Ouazad |
| Abstract: | Discrete choice models with social interactions or spillovers may exhibit multiple equilibria. This paper provides a systematic approach to enumerating them for a quantitative spatial model with discrete locations, social interactions, and elastic housing supply. The approach relies on two homotopies. A homotopy is a smooth function that transforms the solutions of a simpler city where solutions are known, to a city with heterogeneous locations and finite supply elasticity. The first homotopy is that, in the set of cities with perfectly elastic floor surface supply, an economy with heterogeneous locations is homotopic to an economy with homogeneous locations, whose solutions can be comprehensively enumerated. Such an economy is epsilon close to an economy whose equilibria are the zeros of a system of polynomials. This is a well-studied area of mathematics where the enumeration of equilibria can be guaranteed. The second homotopy is that a city with perfectly elastic housing supply is homotopic to a city with an arbitrary supply elasticity. In a small number of cases, the path may bifurcate and a single path yields two or more equilibria. By running the method on thousands of cities, we obtain a large number of equilibria. Each equilibrium has different population distributions. We provide a method that is computationally feasible for economies with a large number of locations choices, with an empirical application to the City of Chicago. There exist multiple ``counterfactual Chicagos'' consistent with the estimated parameters. Population distribution, prices, and welfare are not uniquely pinned down by amenities. The paper's method can be applied to models in trade and IO. Further applications of algebraic geometry are suggested. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.10181&r=ure |
| By: | Gortazar, Lucas; Hupkau, Claudia; Roldan-Mones, Antonio |
| Abstract: | We provide evidence from a randomized controlled trial on the effectiveness of a novel, 100-percent online math tutoring program, targeted at secondary school students from highly disadvantaged neighborhoods. The intensive, eight-week-long program was delivered by qualified math teachers in groups of two students during after-school hours. The intervention significantly increased standardized test scores (+0.26 SD) and end-of-year math grades (+0.48 SD), while reducing the probability of repeating the school year. The intervention also raised aspirations, as well as self-reported effort at school. |
| Keywords: | schools; online tutoring; mentoring; RCT; mathematics; child outcomes |
| JEL: | C93 I20 I28 H75 |
| Date: | 2023–03–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121342&r=ure |
| By: | Hwanoong Lee; Changsu Ko; Wookun Kim |
| Abstract: | We exploit a series of public-sector entity relocations in South Korea as an exogenous source of variation in public sector employment to estimate the local employment multiplier. We find that the introduction of one public sector employment position increases private sector employment by one unit, primarily driven by the service sector. Consistent with existing literature, we document that the effect of public employment on private employment is highly localized. In addition to changes in private employment, we also discover that the relocations led to a positive net influx of residents into the treated neighborhoods; this effect is also localized. Lastly, by estimating the local employment multiplier for each relocation site, we document the heterogeneity of the local employment multiplier and provide suggestive evidence that this het-erogeneity is shaped by the local economic environment's capacity to accommodate additional general equilibrium responses. |
| Keywords: | employment multiplier, public employment, spatial spillover, migration, heterogeneity |
| JEL: | H31 J45 J61 R11 R23 R58 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10870&r=ure |
| By: | Yvonne Giesing |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of technological change on immigration flows as well as the labor market outcomes of migrants versus natives. We analyse and compare the effects of two different automation technologies: Industrial robots and artificial intelligence. We exploit data provided by the Industrial Federation of Robotics as well as online job vacancy data on Germany, a highly automated economy and the main destination for migrants in Europe. We apply an instrumental variable strategy and identify how robots decrease the wage of migrants across all skill groups, while neither having a significant impact on the native population nor immigration flows. In the case of AI, we determine an increase in the wage gap as well as the unemployment gap of migrant and native populations. This applies to the low-, medium- and high-skilled and is indicative of migrants facing displacement effects, while natives might benefit from productivity and complementarity effects. In addition, AI leads to a significant inflow of immigrants. Policymakers should devote special attention to the migration population when designing mitigation policies in response to technological change to avoid further increases in inequality between migrants and natives. |
| Keywords: | technological change, AI, robots, immigration |
| JEL: | F22 J15 J61 J78 O15 O33 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10876&r=ure |
| By: | Jose Montalban; Rosa Sanchis-Guarner; Felix Weinhardt |
| Abstract: | Using administrative data, we estimate the effect of home broadband speed on student-level value-added test scores. Our headline estimate relies on jumps in connection quality between close neighbours that occur across thousands of invisible telephone exchange station catchment-area boundaries. We find that increasing speed by 1 Mbit/s increases test scores by 1.37 percentile ranks, equivalent to 5% of a standard deviation. School-level factors or broadband take-up cannot explain this. Instead, the positive effects are concentrated among high-ability and non-free-school-meal eligible students and result from more education-oriented internet use. Differences in ICT quality can thus lead to increasing education inequalities. |
| Keywords: | broadband, education, spatial regression discontinuity |
| Date: | 2024–02–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1979&r=ure |
| By: | Massimiliano Ferraresi (University of Ferrara); Benedikt Herrmann, European Commission, JRC-Ispra; Luisa Loiacono (University of Ferrara); Leonzio Rizzo (University of Ferrara & IEB); Riccardo Secomandi (University of Ferrara) |
| Abstract: | Can fiscal autonomy affect per-capita income levels? The existing literature shows mixed results on the impact of fiscal autonomy on GDP growth, it often uses cross-country datasets comparing nations with different socio-economic contexts. Even when it digs into the subnational entities of a nation either financial indexes or institutional dummies are used as proxies for fiscal autonomy: both can imply endogeneity due either to measurement errors or reverse causality. We empirically investigate the impact of fiscal autonomy on per-capita income stimulated by the proper use of local financial resources. We do this by exploiting an Italian natural experiment comparing the impact on per-capita income of the use of own resources in municipalities belonging to the autonomous provinces of Trento and Bolzano, which manage almost all their taxes autonomously, to those belonging to the neighbouring regions of Veneto and Lombardy, which manage only a small fraction of taxes paid by their citizens. We use a spatial fuzzy regression discontinuity design to compare similar municipalities on the border between the provinces of Trento and Bolzano and Lombardy and Veneto. We find that the higher the level of local financial fiscal autonomy, proxied by the ratio of own tax revenue to total revenue, the higher the level of per-capita income. The proxy is instrumented with a dummy indicating municipalities with a real institutional fiscal autonomy : those belonging to the provinces of Trento and Bolzano. This allows us to interpret the proxy as an exogenous variation indicating institutional fiscal autonomy. We find that a 10 percentage points increase in financial fiscal autonomy increases per-capita income by 3%. Hence, our results suggest that local governments that are more accountable and closer to citizens, manage their revenues in a more efficient way than in the case when they receive transfers from the centre. |
| JEL: | H71 H72 R11 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipu:wpaper:112&r=ure |
| By: | Kathryn Baragwanath Vogel; Gordon H. Hanson; Amit Khandelwal; Chen Liu; Hogeun Park |
| Abstract: | This paper integrates daytime and nighttime satellite imagery into a spatial general-equilibrium model to evaluate the returns to investments in new motorways. Our approach has particular value in developing-country settings in which granular data on economic activity are scarce. To demonstrate our method, we use multi-spectral imagery—publicly available across the globe—to evaluate India’s varied road construction projects in the early 2000s. Estimating the model requires only remotely-sensed data, while evaluating welfare impacts requires one year of population data, which are increasingly available through public sources. We find that India’s road investments from this period improved aggregate welfare, particularly for the largest and smallest urban markets. The analysis further reveals that most welfare gains accrued within Indian districts, demonstrating the potential benefits of using of high spatial resolution of satellite images. |
| JEL: | O1 R1 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32047&r=ure |
| By: | Andrew Coleman (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the literature that examines the circumstances when house prices are likely to become unsustainable. It argues that there are 2 types of unsustainability: - The first type happens when there is a widespread increase in demand for better quality housing, or a rapid increase in population, which leads to a construction boom. Since the number of new houses typically built by the construction sector is much smaller than the stock of houses, the boom may run up against capacity constraints for several years during which time prices rise and then fall back to normal levels. This type of boom could be managed by a central bank but there would be other trade-offs to consider. - The second type of price unsustainability happens when there are technical or regulatory changes that reduce the usual cost of producing new houses. This type of unsustainability reflects supply factors and is typically outside the domain of the central bank. - The paper argues that the demand for better quality housing (which cannot be quickly met from new supply) is a major reason for unsustainable house prices, and a reason why house price cycles are often so different from price cycles in other industries. |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2023/01&r=ure |
| By: | Sari Pekkala Kerr; William R. Kerr; Kendall E. Smith |
| Abstract: | We study the long-run career mobility of young immigrants, mostly refugees, from Vietnam who moved to the United States during 1989-1995. This third and final migration wave of young Vietnamese immigrants was sparked by unexpected events that culminated in the Amerasian Homecoming Act. Characteristics of the wave also minimized selection effects regarding who migrated. Small differences in the age at arrival, specifically being 14-17 years old on entry compared to 18-21, resulted in substantial differences in future economic outcomes. Using Census Bureau data, we characterize the different career profiles of young vs. older immigrants, and we quantify explanatory factors like education, language fluency, and persistence from initial employers. |
| JEL: | F22 J15 J44 J61 J71 L26 M13 M51 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32067&r=ure |
| By: | Cortes, Kalena E. (Texas A&M University); Kortecamp, Karen (George Washington University); Loeb, Susanna (Stanford University); Robinson, Carly D. (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the results from a randomized controlled trial of Chapter One, an early elementary reading tutoring program that embeds part-time tutors into the classroom to provide short bursts of 1:1 instruction. Eligible kindergarten students were randomly assigned to receive supplementary tutoring during the 2021-22 school year (N=818). The study occurred in a large Southeastern district serving predominantly Black and Hispanic students. Students assigned to the program were over two times more likely to reach the program's target reading level by the end of kindergarten (70% vs. 32%). The results were largely homogenous across student populations and extended to district-administered assessments. These findings provide promising evidence of an affordable and sustainable approach for delivering personalized reading tutoring at scale. |
| Keywords: | high-impact tutoring, literacy gains, randomized control trial |
| JEL: | I20 I21 I24 I26 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16712&r=ure |
| By: | Oguzhan Cepni (Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics, Porcelaenshaven 16A, Frederiksberg DK-2000, Denmark; Ostim Technical University, Ankara, Turkiye); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Christian Pierdzioch (Department of Economics, Helmut Schmidt University, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O.B. 700822, 22008 Hamburg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | We examine the predictive power of national housing market-related behavioral variables, along with their connectedness at the state level, in forecasting US aggregate economic activity (such as the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth), as opposed to solely relying on state-level housing price return connectedness. Our results reveal that while standard linear regression models show statistically insignificant differences in forecast accuracy between the connectedness of housing price returns and behavioral variables, quantile regression models, which capture growth-at-risk, demonstrate significant forecasting improvements. Specifically, state-level connectedness of housing sentiment enhances forecast accuracy at lower quantiles of economic activity, indicative of downturns, whereas connectedness of housing attention is more effective at upper quantiles, corresponding to upturns. The results for GDP growth, however, are less conclusive. These findings underscore the importance of incorporating regional heterogeneity and behavioral aspects in economic forecasting. |
| Keywords: | Housing price, Housing sentiment and attention, Connectedness, Economic activity, Forecasting, Quantile predictive regressions |
| JEL: | C22 C32 C53 E30 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202401&r=ure |
| By: | Li, Xiaoyin; Winters, John |
| Abstract: | This paper examines U.S. female fertility during 2005-2019. Small areas had higher fertility rates than large MSAs during each year. Both experienced fertility declines between 2005 and 2019. However, decreased fertility was more pronounced for large MSAs, and the fertility gap between large and small areas widened considerably. Investigation by age group reveals that diverging fertility across large and small areas is driven by women ages 25-34. We also use multivariate regression analysis for ages 25-34 to consider relationships between individual-level and area-level characteristics and spatial divergence in fertility. Employment patterns, foreign-born status, and local housing costs are notable factors. |
| Date: | 2024–02–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genstf:202402081437060000&r=ure |
| By: | Nicholas Lawson (Department of Economics, University of Quebec in Montreal) |
| Abstract: | In recent decades, there has been a lengthy debate about the fiscal costs or benefits of immigration, and much of the literature has found fiscal impacts that are close to zero. However, these studies have ignored the possibility that immigrants may be victims of wage discrimination in the labour market, despite evidence of such discrimination in various countries. In the presence of such discrimination, existing estimates of the fiscal impact of immigration will be biased: if immigrants are paid less than their marginal products, then someone else is receiving that income ? mostly likely the firm?s owners or other workers ? and paying taxes on it, and that fiscal benefit is ignored by a model that disregards discrimination. In this paper, I evaluate the quantitative importance of this mechanism, by calibrating a search-and-matching model to Canadian data and simulating the fiscal impact of increases in immigration. When the model and calibration omits wage discrimination against immigrants, the average fiscal impact of immigration is negative, but it becomes positive if discrimination explains the wage gaps between natives and immigrant workers: at an economy-wide level, an annual fiscal cost of about $3 billion in the absence of discrimination becomes a fiscal benefit of about $4 billion in the presence of discrimination. My results indicate that wage discrimination against immigrants could significantly affect our estimates of the fiscal impact of immigration. |
| Keywords: | discrimination, immigration, fiscal benefits |
| JEL: | H27 J61 J79 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grc:wpaper:24-01&r=ure |
| By: | Anomita Ghosh (National Council of Applied Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | I investigate how allowing lower tuition for undocumented students at public colleges improves education outcomes, and changes institutional pricing patterns. I use administrative data and a residual method to quantify the actual number of undocumented students at school level in the pre-reform period. Exploiting the reforms staggered adoption across states and time, as well as variation in the intensity of exposure to the reform across institutions. I find a higher enrollment of undocumented students at the treated states ‘more exposed’ community colleges. Transfer, technical and vocational colleges drive the enrollment outcomes. In contrast to enrollment, there is strong evidence of higher graduation of undocumented students at both 2-year and 4-year colleges in the treated states. I also observe that students at these ‘more exposed’ institutions experience modest tuition reductions. There is negligible displacement of Americans in treated public colleges. My findings indicate that the education benefits to undocumented students come with no significant unintended costs to other students. I estimate that the reform costs around $16.4 million per year on average. |
| Keywords: | Subsidies, Education, Pricing, Incidence, Major Choice, Undocumented Students, Documented students. |
| JEL: | I22 I23 I28 J15 K37 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:153&r=ure |
| By: | Aksoy, Cevat Giray; Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven J.; Dolls, Mathias; Zarate, Pablo |
| Abstract: | The pandemic triggered a large, lasting shift to work from home (WFH). To study this shift, we survey full-time workers who finished primary school in 27 countries as of mid-2021 and early 2022. Our cross-country comparisons control for age, gender, education, and industry and treat the U.S. mean as the baseline. We find, first, that WFH averages 1.5 days per week in our sample, ranging widely across countries. Second, employers plan an average of 0.7 WFH days per week after the pandemic, but workers want 1.7 days. Third, employees value the option to WFH 2-3 days per week at 5 percent of pay, on average, with higher valuations for women, people with children and those with longer commutes. Fourth, most employees were favorably surprised by their WFH productivity during the pandemic. Fifth, looking across individuals, employer plans for WFH levels after the pandemic rise strongly with WFH productivity surprises during the pandemic. Sixth, looking across countries, planned WFH levels rise with the cumulative stringency of government-mandated lockdowns during the pandemic. We draw on these results to explain the big shift to WFH and to consider some implications for workers, organization, cities, and the pace of innovation. |
| Keywords: | covid-19; working from home; productivity; Becker Friedman Institute |
| JEL: | D20 E24 J20 L23 |
| Date: | 2023–05–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121327&r=ure |
| By: | Anomita Ghosh (National Council of Applied Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | Do temporary labor supply programs cause physicians to move to and stay in undesirable areas? To what extent do these programs improve the health of the elderly and nonelderly population in those areas? I investigate these questions by studying state and local loan repayment programs for new eligible physicians which were rolled out over the last four decades in hundreds of counties across US states. Leveraging a new longitudinal dataset that tracks all physicians from medical school to mid-career, and exploiting both space and time variation, I find that these policies increase the number of physicians by 5% in treated counties relative to untreated counties in the state. The inflows of physicians are driven by higher paying eligible specialities. The programs continue to influence physicians’ location decisions even after they end effects persist for at least ten years after the minimum obligation period. Furthermore, the programs modestly spur trainees to enter eligible specialities in treated states by substituting away from ineligible specialities. Treated counties also see the elderly increase their visits to physicians while reducing those to the emergency rooms. Using patient level data from California, I demonstrate these results are not driven by selective admission of patients to treated hospitals. Overall, my findings emphasize the importance of policies that reduce financial frictions for highly skilled professionals –- in shaping not only their migration and labor market trajectories, but also the health outcomes of people in their communities. |
| Keywords: | labor supply, state and local government, migration flows, occupational choice, adverse health events, health expenditures |
| JEL: | H75 J24 J32 J61 I18 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:154&r=ure |
| By: | Messina, Julián (Universidad de Alicante); Sanz-de-Galdeano, Anna (Universidad de Alicante); Terskaya, Anastasia (University of Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | Utilizing comprehensive administrative data from Brazil, we investigate the impact of peer effects on wages, considering both within-gender and cross-gender dynamics. Since the average productivity of both individuals and their peers is unobservable, we estimate these values using worker fixed effects while accounting for occupational and firm sorting. Our findings reveal that within-gender peer effects have approximately twice the influence of cross-gender peer effects on wages for both males and females. Furthermore, we observe a reduction in the disparity between these two types of peer effects in settings characterized by greater gender equality. |
| Keywords: | peer effects, gender, matched employer-employee data, identity, wage determination |
| JEL: | J16 J24 J31 M12 M54 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16721&r=ure |
| By: | Takuma Sugiyama (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | To protect native workers, discussions on immigration restrictions have emerged. However, limited studies have analyzed the economic impact of such restrictions on native workers. Past literature demonstrated a small effect of immigration restrictions on the labor outcomes of native workers, attributing it to capital substitution. Notably, this analysis focused on restrictions on low-skilled immigrants. Past literature of theoretical analysis highlighted that labor scarcity affects labor outcomes differently based on the substitutability of labor and capital. Anticipating a distinct impact, this paper examined the restriction of skilled immigrants exploiting the H-1B visa restrictions after 2004. The analysis, using triple differences estimation, revealed a significantly positive impact on labor outcomes of natives. Additionally, the visa restrictions positively impacted capital accumulation. These results suggest that the shortage of skilled labor supply induced capital accumulation. Nevertheless, capital investment could not fully adjust to the lack of labor supply, resulting in improved labor outcomes for natives. |
| Keywords: | Immigration; Labor Economics; Labor Policy; Technological Change |
| JEL: | J15 J18 J22 J31 J44 J61 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2024-01&r=ure |
| By: | Escamilla-Guerrero, David (University of St Andrews); Papadia, Andrea (University of York); Zimran, Ariell (Vanderbilt University) |
| Abstract: | The effects of immigration are reasonably well understood in developed countries, but they are far more poorly understood in developing ones despite the importance of these countries as immigrant destinations. We address this shortcoming by studying the effects of immigration to Brazil during the Age of Mass Migration on its agricultural sector in 1920. This context benefits from the widely recognized value of historical perspective in studies of the effects of immigration. But unlike studies that focus on the United States to understand the effects of migration from poor to rich countries, our context is informative of developing countries' experience because Brazil in this period was unique among major migrant destinations as a low-income country with a large agricultural sector and weak institutions. Instrumenting for a municipality's immigrant share using the interaction of aggregate immigrant inflows and the expansion of Brazil's railway network, we find that a greater immigrant share in a municipality led to an increase in farm values. We show that the bulk of the effect of immigration can be explained by more intense cultivation of land, which we attribute to temporary immigrants exerting greater labor effort than natives. Finally, we find that it is unlikely that immigration's effect on agriculture slowed Brazil's structural transformation. |
| Keywords: | immigration, developing countries, effects of immigration, age of mass migration, Brazil, agriculture |
| JEL: | F22 J61 N36 N56 O13 O15 Q15 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16741&r=ure |
| By: | Titus Galama (Department of Economics, University of Southern California); Andrei Munteanu (Department of Economics, University of Quebec in Montreal); Kevin Thom (Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee) |
| Abstract: | Using linked records from the 1880 to 1940 full-count United States decennial censuses, we estimate the effects of parental exposure to compulsory schooling (CS) laws on the human capital outcomes of children, exploiting the staggered roll-out of state CS laws in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. CS reforms not only increased the educational attainment of exposed individuals, but also that of their children. We find that one extra year of maternal (paternal) exposure to CS increased children's educational attainment by 0.015 (0.016) years - larger than the average effects on the parents themselves, and larger than the few existing intergenerational estimates from studies of more recent reforms. We find particularly large effects on black families and first-born sons. Exploring mechanisms, we find suggestive evidence that higher parental exposure to CS affected children's outcomes through higher own human capital, marriage to more educated spouses, and a higher propensity to reside in neighborhoods with greater school resources (teacher-to-student ratios) and with higher average educational attainment. |
| Keywords: | education, inequalities, compulsory schooling, human capital, intergenerational transmission, geographic sorting, assortative mating, racial inequalities |
| JEL: | E24 H52 I24 I25 I26 J15 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grc:wpaper:24-02&r=ure |
| By: | Bindler, Anna Louisa; Hjalmarsson, Randi; Machin, Stephen Jonathan; Rubio, Melissa |
| Abstract: | Using data on 100 years of 19th century criminal trials at London's Old Bailey, this paper offers clear evidence of disparate treatment of Irish-named defendants and victims by English juries. We measure surname Irishness and Englishness using place of birth in the 1881 census. Irish-named defendants are 11% less likely to plea, 3% more likely to be convicted by the jury, and 16% less likely to receive a jury recommendation for mercy. These disparities are: (i) largest for violent crimes and for defendants with more distinctive Irish surnames; (ii) robust to case characteristic controls and proxies for signals associated with Irish surnames (social class, Irish county of origin, criminality); (iii) particularly visible for Irish defendants in cases with English victims; and (iv) spill-over onto English-named defendants with Irish co-defendants. Disparate treatment is first visible in the 1830s, after which it grows, then persists through to the end of the century. In particular, the gap in jury conviction rates became larger during the twenty years after the Irish Potato Famine-induced migration to London. We do not find evidence, however, that the first bombing campaign of the Irish Republican Brotherhood (in 1867 and the 1880s) further exacerbated these disparities. |
| Keywords: | Irish; crime; criminal law; discrimination; economic history |
| JEL: | K42 K14 J15 N33 N93 |
| Date: | 2023–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121339&r=ure |
| By: | David M. Cutler; J. Travis Donahoe |
| Abstract: | Opioid overdose death rates in the United States have risen continuously for over three decades, increasing 2, 142 percent in total from 1990 to 2020. This is surprising. One might expect drug epidemics to be self-limiting, as policy and individual behavior reacts to observed deaths. We study why opioid deaths have risen so greatly and for so long. We consider three reasons for a prolonged epidemic: exogenous and continuing changes in demand or supply, and spillovers in demand for opioids across users, which we term “thick market externalities.” We show there is no evidence of sufficiently large exogenous changes in the demand or supply of opioids that could explain such a prolonged increase in death rates. We test for spillovers using county-level data on opioid deaths from 1991–2018 and opioid shipments from 2006–2009, combined with data on friendships and distance between counties. Estimating a model with addiction and spatial spillovers, we find large spillovers in opioid use and deaths across areas. A shock that increases opioid death rates by 1 in an index county causes 0.38 to 0.76 more deaths in other counties because of spillovers. Because opioids are addictive, this leads to even more deaths and spillovers in future years. In some specifications, these effects are large enough to generate a continuously increasing epidemic without any ongoing changes in demand or supply. We estimate spillovers explain 84 to 92 percent of opioid deaths from 1990 to 2018 and are the main reason deaths have increased for so long. |
| JEL: | D62 I12 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32055&r=ure |
| By: | Justin Tyndall (University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization and Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa) |
| Abstract: | Pedestrian deaths in the US have risen in recent years. Concurrently, US vehicles have increased in size, which may pose a safety risk for pedestrians. In particular, the increased height of vehicle front-ends may present a danger for pedestrians in a crash, as the point of vehicle contact is more likely to occur at the pedestrian’s chest or head. I merge US crash data with a public data set on vehicle dimensions to test for the impact of vehicle height on the likelihood that a struck pedestrian dies. After controlling for crash characteristics, I estimate a 10 cm increase in the vehicle’s front-end height is associated with a 22% increase in fatality risk. I estimate that a cap on front-end vehicle heights of 1.25 meters would reduce annual US pedestrian deaths by 509. |
| Keywords: | Transportation, Safety, Health Traffic fatalities, Externalities |
| JEL: | I1 R41 R42 R48 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hae:wpaper:2024-1&r=ure |
| By: | Luca Barbaglia; Lorenzo Frattarolo; Niko Hauzenberger; Dominik Hirschbuehl; Florian Huber; Luca Onorante; Michael Pfarrhofer; Luca Tiozzo Pezzoli |
| Abstract: | Timely information about the state of regional economies can be essential for planning, implementing and evaluating locally targeted economic policies. However, European regional accounts for output are published at an annual frequency and with a two-year delay. To obtain robust and more timely measures in a computationally efficient manner, we propose a mixed-frequency dynamic factor model that accounts for national information to produce high-frequency estimates of the regional gross value added (GVA). We show that our model produces reliable nowcasts of GVA in 162 regions across 12 European countries. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.10054&r=ure |
| By: | van Oosterhout, Kars (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Human capital in the region); Bakens, Jessie (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Labour market and training); Cörvers, Frank (RS: GSBE MORSE, RS: FdR Research Group ITEM, RS: GSBE - MACIMIDE, ROA / Human capital in the region) |
| Abstract: | Distance can form a barrier to enrolment in a university programme, particularly when it requires a student to move out of the parental home. |
| JEL: | R23 I22 I23 I24 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–01–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umaror:2024001&r=ure |
| By: | Joop Adema; Cevat Giray Aksoy; Yvonne Giesing; Panu Poutvaara |
| Abstract: | During 2022, about eight million Ukrainians were displaced from Ukraine due to the Russian invasion. Whether these individuals will return holds great significance for Ukraine’s reconstruction and is pivotal in shaping integration strategies in host countries. We used Facebook ads to recruit a panel of Ukrainian refugees in Europe, starting in June 2022. Six waves carried out in 2022 and 2023 allow us to examine the causal impact of local conflict intensity on refugees’ return intentions and integration. We find that less than 10% of Ukrainian refugees express a desire to permanently settle abroad. While the duration of time spent abroad leads to a higher proportion of refugees being employed, it does not diminish their intentions to return. Conflict intensity in one’s home municipality decreases current return intentions, but it has only a small impact on plans to return once safety is restored. |
| Keywords: | conflict, Ukraine, migration, refugees, return migration |
| JEL: | D74 F22 J24 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10877&r=ure |
| By: | Charu Jain (National Council of Applied Economic Research); Ruchi Jain (National Council of Applied Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses one of the most critical yet overlooked problems of excessive absence of students in primary grades in India. Considering the intuitive link between students’ attendance and achievements, this paper empirically investigates the incidence and causes of chronic absenteeism while examining the variations in the attainment of foundational skills of primary students. Using data from the India Human Development Survey, round II, the authors find a continuous decline in the attainment of foundational skills among students, as the absenteeism rate increases from ‘normal’ to ‘chronic’, clearly indicating that attendance works! Further, the logistic regression model shows that poor health conditions of a child, larger school distance, extra school working hours, teaching factors, and harsh punishments are among the major contributing factors leading to chronic absence among students. Early attention and strict policy interventions are required due to their direct implications on the cognitive growth of young minds, and quality and productivity of the overall school education. |
| Keywords: | Attendance, Learning Outcomes, Primary Education, Chronic Absenteeism, Gender, Human Development |
| JEL: | I21 I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:157&r=ure |
| By: | Anton Bobrov (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco); Rupal Kamdar (Indiana University); Mauricio Ulate (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) |
| Abstract: | U.S. monetary-policy decisions are made by the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Seven of these members, coming from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, inherently represent national-level interests. The remaining five members, a rotating group of presidents from the 12 Federal Reserve districts, come instead from sub-national jurisdictions. Does this structure have relevant implications for the monetary policy-making process? In this paper, we first build a panel dataset on economic activity across Fed districts. We then provide evidence that regional economic conditions influence the voting behavior of district presidents. Specifically, a regional unemployment rate that is one percentage point higher than the U.S. level is associated with an approximately nine percentage points higher probability of dissenting in favor of looser policy at the FOMC. This result is statistically significant, robust to different specifications, and indicates that the regional component in the structure of the FOMC could matter for monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy, FOMC, Regional Economic Conditions, Taylor Rule |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inu:caeprp:2024002&r=ure |
| By: | Haan, Peter (DIW Berlin); Wnuk, Izabela (DIW Berlin) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of increasing foreign staffing on the labor market outcomes of native workers in the German long-term care sector. Using administrative social security data covering the universe of long-term care workers and policy-induced exogenous variation, we find that increased foreign staffing reduces labor shortages but has diverging implications for the careers of native workers in the sector. While it causes a transition of those currently employed to jobs with better working conditions, higher wages, and non-manual tasks, it simultaneously diminishes re-employment prospects for the unemployed natives with LTC experience. |
| Keywords: | immigration, shift-share instrument, long-term care, EU enlargement |
| JEL: | J61 I11 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16749&r=ure |
| By: | William E. Bendinelli; Humberto F. A. J. Bettini; Alessandro V. M. Oliveira |
| Abstract: | This paper develops an econometric model of flight delays to investigate the influence of competition and dominance on the incentives of carriers to maintain on-time performance. We consider both the route and the airport levels to inspect the local and global effects of competition, with a unifying framework to test the hypotheses of 1. airport congestion internalization and 2. the market competition-quality relationship in a single econometric model. In particular, we examine the impacts of the entry of low cost carriers (LCC) on the flight delays of incumbent full service carriers in the Brazilian airline industry. The main results indicate a highly significant effect of airport congestion self-internalization in parallel with route-level quality competition. Additionally, the potential competition caused by LCC presence provokes a global effect that suggests the existence of non-price spillovers of the LCC entry to non-entered routes. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.09174&r=ure |
| By: | Axelle Arquié; Thomas Grjebine |
| Abstract: | Relying on rich administrative data, this paper examines the adaptive capabilities of the French labor market in the aftermath of large-scale layoffs in the manufacturing sector. We assess both individual and aggregate effects of these shocks, using a unique quantitative definition of mass layoffs. We first show that displaced workers suffer a long-lasting increase in the probability of being unemployed and, for those who find a job, a decrease in their salary. While mass layoffs entail costs for displaced workers, there is a possible social benefit if they result in productive reallocation of workers to the most innovative companies and in the creation of new firms. Remarkably, our findings indicate that firms that hire displaced workers exhibit lower investment rates, decreased value added, and a reduced workforce, with a higher proportion of employees on fixed-term contracts. Additionally, mass layoffs do not contribute to the enhancement of allocative efficiency, as the most skilled workers are less likely to be matched with the most successful establishments. Furthermore, we assess the extent to which local economies adapt to these shocks, revealing that, six years after the mass layoff event, the local unemployment rate is 12% higher in comparison to unaffected regions. Lastly, the affected areas experience a diminished share of new establishment creation. |
| Keywords: | Mass layoffs;Sorting |
| JEL: | J31 J42 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2024-03&r=ure |
| By: | Shima, Mst. Urmi Akter; Hasan, Mohammad Monirul |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the intricate dynamics of land transformation and its correlation with rising surface temperatures in Gazipur District, Bangladesh, amid rapid urbanization and climate change. As urban areas attract more inhabitants, Gazipur experiences alarming rates of urbanization, contributing significantly to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon. The depletion of water bodies exacerbates this effect, posing severe consequences for the regional climate and environment. Conducted as an integrated study utilizing Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS), this research spans the years 2000 to 2021. Landsat 7 & 8 satellite imagery products were employed to analyze land cover changes and recover Land Surface Temperature (LST). Remote sensing techniques enabled the examination of the impact of vegetation cover changes on surface temperature, revealing a strong correlation between LST and land cover classes. Results indicate a substantial reduction in water bodies, decreasing from 33% to 0.01%, and a parallel decline in vegetation cover. These areas are increasingly converted into built-up spaces, contributing to rising temperatures that fluctuate between 28℃ and 35℃. The findings underscore the significance of land cover classes in influencing surface temperature variations. The study not only adds depth to the understanding of Gazipur's evolving landscape but also contributes valuable insights into the intricate relationship between land transformation, urbanization, and climate change. |
| Keywords: | Vegetation coverage, Land Surface Temperature, Environmental Sustainability, Climate Change, Urbanization |
| JEL: | Q23 Q24 Q25 Q56 Q57 R14 R52 |
| Date: | 2022–08–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119867&r=ure |
| By: | David Roodman |
| Abstract: | Hjort and Poulsen (2019) frames the staggered arrival of submarine Internet cables on the shores of Africa circa 2010 as a difference-in-differences natural experiment in broadband access. The paper finds positive impacts on individual- and firm-level employment and nighttime light emissions. These results are largely ascribable to geocoding errors; to discontinuities from a satellite changeover at end-2009; and to a definition of the treated zone that has unclear technological basis, is narrower than the spatial resolution of nearly all the data sources, and is weakly representative of the geography of broadband availability. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.13694&r=ure |
| By: | David A. Keiser; Bhashkar Mazumder; David Molitor; Joseph S. Shapiro; Brant J. Walker |
| Abstract: | The quality and inequality of US drinking water investments have gained attention after recent environmental disasters in Flint, Michigan, and elsewhere. We compare the formula-based targeting of subsidized loans provided under the Safe Drinking Water Act with the targeting of congressional drinking water earmarks (“pork barrel” spending). Earmarks are often critiqued for potentially privileging wealthier and more politically connected communities. We find that earmarks target Black, Hispanic, and low-income communities, partly due to targeting water systems serving large populations. Earmark and loan targeting differ significantly across all the demographics we analyze. Compared to Safe Drinking Water Act loans, earmarks disproportionately target Hispanic communities but not Black or low-income communities. |
| JEL: | H2 I1 P0 Q5 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32058&r=ure |
| By: | Charlotte Cavaillé (Ford School of Public Policy - University of Michigan [Ann Arbor] - University of Michigan System); Karine Van der Straeten (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Research shows that opposition to policies that redistribute across racial divides has affected the development of the American welfare state. Are similar dynamics at play in Western Europe? For many scholars, the answer is yes. In contrast, we argue that researchers' understanding of the political economy of redistribution in diversifying European countries is too incomplete to reach a conclusion on this issue. First, existing evidence is inconsistent with the assumption—ubiquitous in this line of research—of a universal distaste for sharing resources with people who are culturally, ethnically, and racially different. Second, important historical and institutional differences between the United States and Europe preclude any straightforward transposition of the American experience to the European case. We discuss what we see as the most promising lines of inquiry going forward. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04379228&r=ure |
| By: | Popov, Vladimir; Konchakov, Roman; Didenko, Dmitry |
| Abstract: | This paper is an empirical test of what is called a unified theory of inequality and growth (Galor and Zeira, 1988, 1993; Galor and Moav, 2004; Galor, 2012) – in early stages of industrialization inequality enhanced the process of development by channeling resources towards individuals whose marginal propensity to save is higher, thus enhancing physical and human capital accumulation. In later stages of development, however, equality has stimulated human capital formation and growth and unequal distribution of income became a hurdle for economic development. A number of studies have found that human capital is higher and more evenly distributed in countries with lower income and wealth inequalities. In particular, Baten and Hippe (2018) argued that inequality in the distribution of land ownership in Europe (including Russia) in the 19th century had a negative impact on human capital formation (as measured by numeracy rate) as landowners did not have incentives to promote educational institutions or were not willing to pay the necessary taxes. In contrast, we find that in the regions of Russian Empire in 1897 uneven distribution of land was associated with higher levels of human capital (as measured by the average years of schooling and literacy rate), whereas the distribution of the human capital across the regional population (as measured by literacy and the proportions of inhabitants with higher, secondary and primary education) was more even. The difference in the results is caused by the different measurements of land inequality; our result is totally consistent with the unified theory of the inequality and growth. |
| Keywords: | educational attainment, school enrollment, inequality, land distribution, growth. |
| JEL: | D63 I23 J24 N93 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–01–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119796&r=ure |
| By: | Meens-Eriksson, Sef (Department of Economics, Umeå University) |
| Abstract: | General features of waste treatment markets include comprehensive regulations and high fixed capital costs. Hence, firms operating in them have substantial local market power, which is used to mark up prices through spatial price discrimination (Granlund and Meens-Eriksson, 2023). This paper examines effects of waste treatment firms’ spatial price discrimination on Swedish municipalities’ welfare and costs of waste disposal, as well as the associated distributional implications. Results show that the Equivalent Variation is 3.3% of a municipality’s cost for residual waste disposal, on average. Further, the welfare loss disproportionately affects a small number of municipalities, with 10% accounting for 62% of consumer welfare loss. Nearly the entire loss in consumer welfare is redistributed to firms. Considering political ambitions to transform the waste management sector, an alternative scenario is simulated, involving closure of the smallest 20% of waste incineration plants. This would increase the disposal cost for about a quarter of municipalities, and the negative welfare effect within this group would be 12% of their cost of waste disposal. |
| Keywords: | Spatial price discrimination; welfare effects; equivalent variation; waste economics |
| JEL: | D43 D60 L11 L13 Q53 |
| Date: | 2024–02–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:umnees:1021&r=ure |
| By: | Jonathan M. Colmer; Suvy Qin; John L. Voorheis; Reed Walker |
| Abstract: | This paper uses administrative tax records linked to Census demographic data and high-resolution measures of fine small particulate (PM2.5) exposure to study the evolution of the Black-White pollution exposure gap over the past 40 years. In doing so, we focus on the various ways in which income may have contributed to these changes using a statistical decomposition. We decompose the overall change in the Black-White PM2.5 exposure gap into (1) components that stem from rank-preserving compression in the overall pollution distribution and (2) changes that stem from a reordering of Black and White households within the pollution distribution. We find a significant narrowing of the Black-White PM2.5 exposure gap over this time period that is overwhelmingly driven by rank-preserving changes rather than positional changes. However, the relative positions of Black and White households at the upper end of the pollution distribution have meaningfully shifted in the most recent years. |
| JEL: | H0 H4 Q5 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32060&r=ure |
| By: | Lindsay Cattell; Cay Bradley |
| Abstract: | This brief provides reflections from four Mathematica evaluation technical assistance (TA) liaisons based on their experiences in working with grantees awarded as part of a Federal interagency initiative, the Performance Partnership Pilots for Disconnected Youth (P3). |
| Keywords: | Evaluation technical assistance, P3, Performance Partnerships Pilots for Disconnected Youth |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:0b27f6f24c9448c9816bfb278a9212cc&r=ure |
| By: | Tanmay Ghosh; Nithin Nagaraj |
| Abstract: | The decision making involved behind the mode choice is critical for transportation planning. While statistical learning techniques like discrete choice models have been used traditionally, machine learning (ML) models have gained traction recently among the transportation planners due to their higher predictive performance. However, the black box nature of ML models pose significant interpretability challenges, limiting their practical application in decision and policy making. This study utilised a dataset of $1350$ households belonging to low and low-middle income bracket in the city of Bengaluru to investigate mode choice decision making behaviour using Multinomial logit model and ML classifiers like decision trees, random forests, extreme gradient boosting and support vector machines. In terms of accuracy, random forest model performed the best ($0.788$ on training data and $0.605$ on testing data) compared to all the other models. This research has adopted modern interpretability techniques like feature importance and individual conditional expectation plots to explain the decision making behaviour using ML models. A higher travel costs significantly reduce the predicted probability of bus usage compared to other modes (a $0.66\%$ and $0.34\%$ reduction using Random Forests and XGBoost model for $10\%$ increase in travel cost). However, reducing travel time by $10\%$ increases the preference for the metro ($0.16\%$ in Random Forests and 0.42% in XGBoost). This research augments the ongoing research on mode choice analysis using machine learning techniques, which would help in improving the understanding of the performance of these models with real-world data in terms of both accuracy and interpretability. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.13977&r=ure |
| By: | Battiston, Diego Ezequiel; Blanes I Vidal, Jordi; Kirchmaier, Tom; Szemeredi, Katalin |
| Abstract: | We study the interaction between horizontal (peer) and vertical (manager) social factors in workers' motivation. In our setting, individuals work using open-plan desks. Using a natural experiment, we identify a sharp increase in workers' productivity following the occupation of adjacent desks. We link this peer pressure effect to two key aspects of the worker-manager relation. First, we find stronger peer pressure when managers monitor workers less. Second, we find stronger peer pressure among workers performance-evaluated by the same manager. In a set of counterfactual exercises, we illustrate how organisations could take advantage of these interdependencies to increase worker productivity. |
| Keywords: | social incentives; teamwork; peer pressure; monitoring; managers; peer effects; organisations; productivity |
| JEL: | D23 M11 |
| Date: | 2023–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121319&r=ure |