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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M.; Baum-Snow, Nathaniel; Jedwab, Remi |
| Abstract: | Tall buildings are central to facilitating sustainable urbanization and growth in cities worldwide. We estimate average elasticities of city population and built area to aggregate city building heights of 0.12 and -0.17, respectively, indicating that the largest global cities in developing economies would be at least one-third smaller on average without their tall buildings. Land saved from urban development by post-1975 tall building construction is over 80% covered in vegetation. To isolate the effects of technology-induced reductions in the cost of height from correlated demand shocks, we use interactions between static demand factors and the geography of bedrock as instruments for observed 1975-2015 tall building construction in 12, 877 cities worldwide, a triple difference identification strategy. Quantification using a canonical urban model suggests that the technology to build tall generates a potential global welfare gain of 4.8%, of which only about one-quarter has been realized. Estimated welfare gains from relaxing existing height constraints are 5.9%in the developed world and 3.1% in developing economies. |
| Keywords: | urban density; international buildings heights; skyscrapers; tall buildings; sustainable urbanization; city growth; commercial real estate; housing supply; urban sprawl; land savings; housing affordability; geographical constraints; environment |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R14 R31 R33 O18 O13 |
| Date: | 2023–11–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121293&r=ure |
| By: | Biasi, Barbara (Yale School of Management); Lafortune, Julien (Public Policy Institute of California); Schönholzer, David (Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | This paper identifies which investments in school facilities help students and are valued by homeowners. Using novel data on school district bonds, test scores, and house prices for 29 U.S. states and a research design that exploits close elections with staggered timing, we show that increased school capital spending raises test scores and house prices on average. However, impacts differ vastly across types of funded projects. Spending on basic infrastructure (such as HVAC) or on the removal of pollutants raises test scores but not house prices; conversely, spending on athletic facilities raises house prices but not test scores. Socio-economically disadvantaged districts benefit more from capital outlays, even conditioning on project type and the existing capital stock. Our estimates suggest that closing the spending gap between high- and low-SES districts and targeting spending towards high-impact projects may close as much as 25% of the observed achievement gap between these districts. |
| Keywords: | test scores, school capital, school expenditures, real estate |
| JEL: | H41 H75 I22 I24 R30 R53 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16713&r=ure |
| By: | Bertoni, Marco; Heller-Sahlgren, Gabriel; Silva, Olmo |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of attending a free school in England - that is, a new start-up school that enjoys considerable autonomy while remaining in the state sector. We analyse the effects of two secondary free schools with different teaching philosophies: one follows a 'no excuse' paradigm, while the other one adopts a 'classical liberal', knowledge-rich approach. We establish causal effects exploiting admission lotteries and a distance-based regression discontinuity design. Both schools have a strong positive impact on student test scores on average. However, we also find heterogeneous effects: the 'no excuse' school mostly benefits boys, while the 'classical liberal' school mainly benefits White British and non-poor students. Both schools similarly reduce student absences and school mobility. Peer quality, teacher characteristics, and inspectorate ratings cannot fully explain the schools' effectiveness. Instead, a quantitative text analysis of the schools' 'vision and ethos' statements shows that the 'no excuse' and 'classical liberal' philosophies adopted by the two free schools clearly set them apart from the counterfactual schools where rejected applicants enrol, and likely explain their heterogeneous effects. |
| Keywords: | school autonomy; quasi-markets; free schools; achievement; schools |
| JEL: | I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2023–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121281&r=ure |
| By: | Di Cataldo, Marco; Ferranna, Licia; Gerolimetto, Margherita; Magrini, Stefano |
| Abstract: | This article analyzes institutional changes in local governance structures as determinants of wage premium and innovation capacity of urban areas. By combining individual and metropolitan area data for the US, we study the role of institutional fragmentation, related to the number of local governments operating in an area, and institutional coordination, stemming from the creation of authorities fostering the collaboration of local governments. Our findings suggest that more fragmented institutional landmarks do not benefit the wage competitiveness and innovativeness of urban areas. If anything, they harm them. Conversely, stronger coordination among local governments boosts the productivity of functional regions by increasing their wage premium and improving their capacity to innovate. Coordination agreements between different counties or municipalities are especially relevant in the case of urban areas modifying their functional borders over time. These findings provide key insights into the economic effects of reforming the governance structure of metropolitan areas. |
| Keywords: | innovation; institutional coordination; institutional fragmentation; local governance; US MSAs; wage premium |
| JEL: | H70 R12 R23 J30 |
| Date: | 2023–01–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:117956&r=ure |
| By: | Navarro, Adoracion M. |
| Abstract: | Making a comprehensive comparison of subnational levels of infrastructure development in the Philippines is difficult due to the uneven availability of data on infrastructure indicators across geo-political areas. This study shows this is possible at the regional level by developing a demonstration composite subnational infrastructure development index. The study constructed a regional infrastructure development index by picking indicators based on representativeness in the infrastructure subsectors and the uniform availability of data across regions. It also presents one useful application of the index: analyzing the link between subnational infrastructure development and internal migration through a Poisson regression. It then uses the Balik Probinsya Bagong Pag-asa Program, a program engineering the return migration of low-income Filipino families from cities to provinces, to illustrate the usefulness of the regression results in conducting an evidence-based policy analysis. The relationships established through econometric regression and the trends in inter-regional migration show that migration is a phenomenon. Filipino migrants vote with their feet based on demographic and economic factors, including the level of infrastructure development in their origin and destination. Engineering the return to destinations that Filipino migrants left in the first place does not guarantee that they will stay there, given the determinant demographic and economic factors. The resources spent on such engineering can be used instead for programs that minimize spatial development inequities, such as by improving infrastructure to attract investments and jobs. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | infrastructure;regional development;internal migration;return migration;Balik Probinsya Bagong Pag-Asa;Poisson regression |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2023-20&r=ure |
| By: | Sofoklis Goulas; Rigissa Megalokonomou; Yi Zhang |
| Abstract: | Recent research has shown that females make classrooms more conducive to effective learning. We identify the effect of a higher share of female classmates on students’ disruptive behavior, engagement, test scores, and major choices in disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged schools. We exploit the random assignment of students to classrooms in early high school in Greece. We combine rich administrative data with hand-collected student-level data from a representative sample of schools that feature two novel contributions. Unlike other gender peer effects studies, a) we use a rich sample of schools and students that contains a large and diverse set of school qualities, and household incomes, and b) we measure disruption and engagement using misconduct-related (unexcused) teacher-reported and parent-approved (excused) student class absences instead of self-reported measures. We find four main results. First, a higher share of female classmates improves students’ current and subsequent test scores in STEM subjects and increases STEM college participation, especially for girls. Second, a higher share of female classmates is associated with reduced disruptive behavior for boys and improved engagement for girls, which indicates an increase in overall classroom learning productivity. Third, disadvantaged students—those who attend low-quality schools or reside in low-income neighborhoods—drive the baseline results; they experience the highest improvements in their classroom learning productivity and their STEM outcomes from a higher share of female classmates. Fourth, disadvantaged females randomly assigned to more female classmates in early high school choose college degrees linked to more lucrative or prestigious occupations 2 years later. Our results suggest that classroom interventions that reduce disruption and improve engagement are more effective in disadvantaged or underserved environments. |
| Keywords: | gender peer effects, natural experiment, classroom learning productivity, STEM careers, quasi-random variation, disadvantaged students |
| JEL: | J16 J24 I24 I26 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10864&r=ure |
| By: | Bauluz, Luis; Bukowski, Pawel; Fransham, Mark; Lee, Annie Seong; López Forero, Margarita; Novokmet, Filip; Breau, Sébastien; Lee, Neil; Malgouyres, Clément; Schularick, Moritz; Verdugo, Gregory |
| Abstract: | The rise of economic inequalities in advanced economies has been often linked with the growth of spatial inequalities within countries, yet there is limited comparative research that studies the relationship between national and subnational economic inequality. This paper presents the first systematic attempt to create internationally comparable evidence showing how different countries perform in terms of geographic wage inequalities. We create cross-country comparable measures of spatial wage disparities between and within similarly-defined local labour market areas (LLMAs) for Canada, France, (West) Germany, the UK and the US since the 1970s, and assess their contribution to national inequality. By the end of the 2010s, spatial inequalities in LLMA mean wages are similar in Canada, France, Germany and the UK; the US exhibits the highest degree of spatial inequality. Over the study period, spatial inequalities have nearly doubled in all countries, except for France where spatial inequalities have fallen back to 1970s levels. Due to a concomitant increase in within-place inequality, the contribution of places in explaining national wage inequality has remained fairly constant over the 40-year study period, except in the UK where we document a significant increase. Whilst common global social, economic and technological shocks are important drivers of spatial inequality, this variation in levels and trends of spatial inequality opens the way to comparative research exploring the role of national institutions in mediating how global shocks translate into economic disparities between places. |
| Keywords: | regional inequality; wage inequality; local labour markets; ES/V013548/1; EXC 2126/1– 390838866 |
| JEL: | J3 R1 R23 |
| Date: | 2023–08–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121290&r=ure |
| By: | Joan Martín-Montaner (Universitat Jaume I and Instituto de Economía Internacional); Francisco Requena (Universitat de València); Guadalupe Serrano (Universitat de València) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the determinants of the internal and foreign migrants’ decision regarding their employment status and examine the importance of second-language proficiency in bilingual language economies. When arriving at a bilingual territory, migrants must decide which languages to learn. If one of the languages predominates in economic activity, there are less incentives for migrants to make the effort of learning the second language. However, if a local language contributes to build or strengthen a regional identity, learning it could help immigrants’ immersion in the receiving region. We use the Spanish Census in 2001, which exceptionally asked all participants about their knowledge of the co-official language in the bilingual regions. Our results show that second-language proficiency reduces the probability of being unemployed and stimulates self-employment. The impact becomes stronger among foreign migrants without Spanish as a first language and migrants arriving after primary school and living in non-urban areas. |
| Keywords: | Immigrant's assimilation, languages proficiency, labor market, self-employment, sequential logit |
| JEL: | J21 J22 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eec:wpaper:2404&r=ure |
| By: | Sarah Kiesl-Reiter (ifo Institute); Melanie Lührmann (Royal Holloway, University of London); Jonathan Shaw (Institute for Fiscal Studies, London); Joachim Winter (LMU Munich) |
| Abstract: | Subjective house price expectations drive individual housing choices and market dynamics. We study the formation of subjective expectations about local house prices using novel survey data from Britain, a country with high homeownership rates and widely varying local housing dynamics. There is a substantial and heterogeneous perception gap and individuals extrapolate strongly from perceived but not from realized past price changes. In addition, expectations are predicted by wider, easily observable measures of local economic conditions, especially among individuals with low financial sophistication. Individuals residing in local housing markets where past prices are less informative or less observable rely more strongly on local economic conditions in their belief formation. Our results emphasize the role of heterogeneity in expectations formation processes, and their underlying information set. |
| Keywords: | subjective expectations; housing markets; local economic conditions; |
| JEL: | D12 D84 |
| Date: | 2024–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:491&r=ure |
| By: | Badarinza, Cristian (National University of Singapore); Ramadorai, Tarun (Imperial College Business School and CEPR); Siljander, Juhana (Imperial College Business School); Tripathy, Jagdish (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | We study the aggregate implications of reference dependent and loss averse preferences in the housing market. Motivated by micro evidence, we embed optimizing homeowners with these preferences into a dynamic search and matching equilibrium model with rich heterogeneity and realistic constraints. We assess the model using large and granular administrative data tracking buyers and sellers in the UK housing market; the predictions match regional and time variation in price growth and transaction volumes. The model shows that behavioral frictions in a decentralized market can link nominal quantities with real outcomes; and reveals that the distribution of potential nominal gains in the housing market is a key policy-relevant statistic. |
| Keywords: | Reference dependence; behavioral frictions; housing |
| JEL: | D12 D91 G51 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:1054&r=ure |
| By: | Alberto Hidalgo |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to fill this gap by examining the impact of tourism on urban transformation using a dataset of hotel openings in Madrid from 2001-2010. I show that hotel openings positively impact the number of establishments and employment by using the number of protected buildings as an instrumental variable to account for the non-random distribution of hotel openings. Interestingly, hotel openings contribute to changes in the composition of the economic activities and the business structures, enhancing tourist-oriented corporate-owned businesses over other individualowned companies. Finally, economic effects extend to the real estate market, increasing rental prices and residential investment. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2024-03&r=ure |
| By: | Haapamäki, Taina; Riukula, Krista; Väänänen, Touko |
| Abstract: | Abstract In economics, the regional densification of economic activity is referred to as agglomeration. The effects of agglomeration are often referred to when discussing the wider economic benefits of transportation infrastructure projects. The magnitude of these effects has not been extensively studied in Finland. In this brief, we present results from a study that examines the effect of agglomeration on productivity in the Helsinki region. Agglomeration, defined as job-to-job accessibility, was found to have a positive effect on employees’ wages. However, the results at the establishment-level are less precise and statistically insignificant. According to the results, increased accessibility increases other operating expenses such as rents, potentially explaining the lack of statistically significant effects on establishment-level productivity. The results indicate that agglomeration benefits are predominantly intraregional, with interregional accessibility having little impact on these benefits. Consequently, the ratio between agglomeration benefits and direct benefits of transportation infrastructure projects varies depending on the project. Taxes and similar payments on increased wages due to accessibility increases could be included as a separate item in cost-benefit analysis. |
| Keywords: | Agglomeration, Productivity, Transport project, Cost-benefit analysis, Accessibility, Wider economic impacts |
| JEL: | R12 R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2024–01–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:132&r=ure |
| By: | Jonathan Eggleston; Chase Sawyer |
| Abstract: | Social capital, the strength of people’s friendship networks and community ties, has been hypothesized as an important determinant of survey participation. Investigating this hypothesis has been difficult given data constraints. In this paper, we provide insights by investigating how response rates and nonresponse bias in the American Community Survey are correlated with county-level social network data from Facebook. We find that areas of the United States where people have more exclusive and homogenous social networks have higher nonresponse bias and lower response rates. These results provide further evidence that the effects of social capital may not be simply a matter of whether people are socially isolated or not, but also what types of social connections people have and the sociodemographic heterogeneity of their social networks. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:24-01&r=ure |
| By: | Dienes, Christian; Schneck, Stefan; Wolter, Hans-Jürgen |
| Abstract: | This research note examines the relationship between start-up rates and GDP per capita growth in urban and rural regions in Germany. Hereby, we take into account that urban and rural areas differ markedly in their resource endowment for entrepreneurship, which might be responsible for different effects of start-up activity on regional development. Therefore, we examine the growth implications rural entrepreneurship might have on the local economy. Our results suggest that new business formation is positively associated with economic growth in rural areas. In urban districts, however, the effect of start-up activity is insignificant. Therefore, regional development is less dependent on the emergence of new businesses in urban counties. The results also unveil that the often-cited inverse U-shaped relationship between entrepreneurship and GDP growth is mainly evident in rural areas. |
| Keywords: | Regional growth, entrepreneurship, start-up rate |
| JEL: | L26 O18 O47 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifmwps:281788&r=ure |
| By: | Zaitsev Ilya (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University); Klachkova Olga (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University) |
| Abstract: | The study uses gravity models to estimate the impact of the spread of information and communication technologies (ICT) on migration flows between Russian regions. Based on data on migration by education for 2015–2019, the trend that the spread of the Internet in the regions of destination leads to an increase in the flow of migrants with higher education has been revealed. On the other hand, for migrants with a low level of education, migration decreases if the Internet becomes more accessible in the regions of destination. Thus, for migrants with higher education, the channels of information and communication mostly prevail, and for the rest a channel of better living conditions is more common. |
| Keywords: | interregional migration, gravity models, regions of Russia, information and communication technologies, education |
| JEL: | L86 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upa:wpaper:0065&r=ure |
| By: | Yue Sun; Liqiu Zhao; Zhong Zhao (Renmin University of China) |
| Abstract: | Under China’s household registration (hukou) system, children with rural hukou lack equal access to education in urban areas. This paper investigates the causal effect of hukou status on children’s education by exploiting an exogenous change in hukou status induced by the hukou reform in 1998. Before the reform, children could only inherit their mother’s hukou status. Post-1998, newborns and preschoolers gained the ability to inherit either their father’s or mother’s hukou status, creating a unique exogenous opportunity for children with urban fathers and rural mothers to obtain urban hukou. Using China’s 2010 population census data, we employ a difference-in-differences strategy to examine the impact of hukou status on children’s education. Our findings reveal that the younger cohorts exposed to the reform are 15.1 percentage points more likely to have urban hukou and 18.9 percentage points more likely to be at the appropriate grade level for their age. Moreover, the effect is more pronounced amongst girls and children from educated families or large cities. |
| Keywords: | Hukou reform, grade-for-age, education equality, rural-urban disparity |
| JEL: | I24 I28 O15 R28 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2024-004&r=ure |
| By: | Zuchowski, David |
| Abstract: | Russia's attacks against Ukraine have triggered massive and unexpected migration movements. In this paper, I examine the impact of the inflow of Ukrainians that resulted from Russia's aggression in 2014 on local migration patterns in Poland. For identification, I use an instrumental variable approach drawing on unique historical data on the forced resettlement of Ukrainians in Poland after World War II. The results show that the regional inflow of immigrants decreases both internal and international out-migration of the Polish population. I provide supportive evidence that the decrease in out-migration is due to the upscaling of local labor markets. |
| Abstract: | Die Angriffe von Russland auf die Ukraine haben massive und unerwartete Migrationsbewegungen ausgelöst. In diesem Artikel untersuche ich die Auswirkungen des Zustroms ukrainischer Arbeitskräfte infolge der russischen Aggression im Jahr 2014 auf lokale Migrationsbewegungen in Polen. Zur Identifizierung der Effekte verwende ich einen Instrumentalvariablenansatz, der sich auf einzigartige historische Daten zur Zwangsumsiedlung ukrainischer Familien in Polen nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg stützt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die regionale Zuwanderung sowohl die interne als auch die internationale Abwanderung der polnischen Bevölkerung verringert. Ich finde Indizien dafür, dass dieser Rückgang der Abwanderung auf das Hochskalieren der lokalen Arbeitsmärkte zurückzuführen ist. |
| Keywords: | Migration, immigrant workers, Poland, Ukraine |
| JEL: | F22 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:281188&r=ure |
| By: | Jakubowski, Maciej (University of Warsaw); Gajderowicz, Tomasz (University of Warsaw); Patrinos, Harry A. (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in significant disruption in schooling worldwide. This paper uses global test score data to estimate learning losses. It models the effect of school closures on achievement by predicting the deviation of the most recent results from a linear trend using data from all rounds of the Programme for International Student Assessment. Scores declined by an average of 14 percent of a standard deviation, roughly equal to seven months of learning. Losses were greater for students in schools that faced relatively longer closures, boys, immigrants, and disadvantaged students. Educational losses may translate into significant national income losses over time. |
| Keywords: | student achievement, learning loss, COVID-19, PISA, international large-scale assessments |
| JEL: | I19 I20 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16731&r=ure |
| By: | Bentolila, Samuel (CEMFI, Madrid); Cabrales, Antonio (University College London); Jansen, Marcel (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the causal impact of dual vocational education and training (VET) on the labor market insertion of youth. Using matched education and social security records, we estimate the causal impact of a major reform that introduced a new dual track, which combines firm- and school-based training, on the labor market outcomes of the first three dual VET cohorts in the Spanish region of Madrid. The control group is composed of individuals who graduated in the same fields and years in school-based VET. Selection into dual VET is dealt with using a distance-based instrumental variable. Dual VET is found to generate sizeable improvements in employment and earnings, but no significant impact on job quality. The results are not driven by pre-reform differences in the quality of the schools that adopted dual VET and the higher retention rate of dual VET graduates only partly explains the dual premium. |
| Keywords: | dual vocational education and training, school-to-work transi- tion, Spain |
| JEL: | D92 G33 J23 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16688&r=ure |
| By: | Thomas van Huizen; Madelon Jacobs; Matthijs Oosterveen |
| Abstract: | In many countries, teachers' track recommendations are used to allocate students to secondary school tracks. Previous studies have shown that students from families with low socioeconomic status (SES) receive lower track recommendations than their peers from high SES families, conditional on standardized test scores. It is often argued this indicates teacher bias. However, this claim is invalid in the presence of measurement error in test scores. We discuss how measurement error in test scores generates a biased coefficient of the conditional SES gap, and consider three empirical strategies to address this bias. Using administrative data from the Netherlands, we find that measurement error explains 35 to 43% of the conditional SES gap in track recommendations. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.04200&r=ure |
| By: | Tang, Cheng Keat; Gibbons, Steve |
| Abstract: | Overhead electrical power lines and pylons have long raised concerns regarding the effects of electromagnetic fields on health, noise pollution and the visual impact on rural landscapes. These issues are once again salient because of the need for new lines to connect sources of renewable energy to the grid. In this study we provide new evidence on the cost implied by these externalities, as revealed in house prices. We use a spatial difference-in-difference approach that compares price changes in neighbourhoods that are close to overhead power lines, before and after they are constructed, with price changes in comparable neighbourhoods further away. Our findings suggest that the construction of new overhead pylons reduces prices by 3.6% for properties up to 1200 meters away, suggesting the impacts extend further than previously estimated. |
| Keywords: | externalities; overhead power lines; pylons; house prices; revealed preferences |
| JEL: | R32 Q48 Q51 |
| Date: | 2023–08–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121288&r=ure |
| By: | Tijan Bah |
| Keywords: | Irregular migration, migration deterrence, information interventions, vocational training, cash transfer, randomized experiment. |
| JEL: | O15 F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nva:unnvaa:wp05-2022&r=ure |
| By: | Murphy, Michael J.; Grundy, Emily |
| Abstract: | Introduction: Housing is a major influence on health. Housing tenure is associated with housing conditions, affordability, and security and is an important dimension of housing. In the UK there have been profound changes in both housing conditions and the distribution of households by tenure over the past century, that is during the lifetimes of the current population. Methods: We firstly reviewed and summarise changes in housing conditions, housing policy and tenure distribution as they provide a context to possible explanations for health variations by housing tenure, including health related selection into different tenure types. We then use 2015-2021 data from a large nationally representative UK survey to analyse associations between housing tenure and self-reported disability among those aged 40-69 controlling for other socio-demographic factors also associated with health. We additionally examine changes in the association between housing tenure and selfreported disability in the population aged 25 and over in the first two decades of the 21st century and project trends forward to 2030. Results: Results show that associations between housing tenure and disability by tenure were stronger than for any other indicator of socio-economic position considered with owner-occupiers having the best, and social renters the worst, health. Differences were particularly marked in reported mental health conditions and in economic activity, with 28% of social renters being economically inactive due to health problems, compared with 4% of owneroccupiers. Rates of disability have increased over time, and become increasingly polarised by tenure. By 2020 the age standardised disability rate among tenants of social housing was over twice as high as that for owner occupiers, with projections indicating further increases in both levels, and differentials in, disability by 2030. Discussion: These results have substantial implications for housing providers, local authorities and for public health. |
| Keywords: | housing tenure; disability; housing policy; housing and public health; inequality; United Kingdom; grant “Families; households and health in ageing populations: Projections and implications” (Grant Reference: ES/T014083/1).; UKRI fund |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–01–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120247&r=ure |
| By: | Kauma, Bridget; Mion, Giordano |
| Abstract: | We propose a new data resource that attempts to overcome limitations of standard firm-level datasets for the UK (like the ARD/ABS) by building on administrative data covering the population of UK firms with at least one employee. We also construct a similar dataset for France and use both datasets to: 1) Provide some highlights of the data and an overall picture of the evolution of aggregate UK and French productivity and markups: 2) Analyse the spatial distribution of productivity in both countries at a fine level of detail - 228 Travel to Work Areas (TTWAs) for the UK and 297 Zones da'emploi (ZEs) for France - while focusing on the role of economic density. Our findings suggest that differences in firm productivity across regions are magnified in the aggregate by an increasing productivity return of density along the productivity distribution. |
| Keywords: | firm-level dataset; merging; BSD; FAME; VAT; FICUS; FARE; productivity; markups; UK; France; regional disparities; density |
| JEL: | R12 D24 |
| Date: | 2023–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121301&r=ure |
| By: | Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven J.; Hansen, Stephen; Lambert, Peter John; Sadun, Raffaella; Taska, Bledi |
| Abstract: | The pandemic catalyzed an enduring shift to remote work. To measure and characterize this shift, we examine more than 250 million job vacancy postings across five English-speaking countries. Our measurements rely on a state-of-the-art language-processing framework that we fit, test, and refine using 30, 000 human classifications. We achieve 99% accuracy in flagging job postings that advertise hybrid or fully remote work, greatly outperforming dictionary methods and also outperforming other machine-learning methods. From 2019 to early 2023, the share of postings that say new employees can work remotely one or more days per week rose more than three-fold in the U.S and by a factor of five or more in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the U.K. These developments are highly non-uniform across and within cities, industries, occupations, and companies. Even when zooming in on employers in the same industry competing for talent in the same occupations, we find large differences in the share of job postings that explicitly offer remote work. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19; hybrid working; employment; Consolidator Grant 864863; STICERD PhD research grant; e Booth School of Business |
| JEL: | C50 E24 M54 O33 R3 |
| Date: | 2023–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121302&r=ure |
| By: | Bruna Borges; Gabriel Leite; Ricardo Madeira; Luis Meloni |
| Abstract: | Several programs focus on the professional development of school principals by assuming that the quality of management affects the school’s functioning and, therefore, students’ learning. However, little is known about what skills we should develop to translate better school management into proficiency. In this paper, we propose a survey instrument to measure thirteen managerial practices specifically designed to capture variations between schools within a context of scarce resources and limited autonomy. Then, we assess the impact of a school management program (Jovem de Futuro) – with proven effects on students’ proficiency – on these practices, exploiting the program’s phase-in randomization strategy. We find that receiving the program increased the overall management practices index, especially improving the schools’ evaluation processes. Analyzing each dimension separately, we observe that the program affects how principals pursue pre-established targets, use assessments to learn about student learning, identify school leaders, and attribute responsibilities to the school’s management team. |
| Keywords: | School management practices; Impact evaluation; Educational economics; Human capital |
| JEL: | I20 M10 J01 L38 |
| Date: | 2024–02–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spa:wpaper:2024wpecon3&r=ure |
| By: | Shaikh, Sameer (Central Bank of Ireland); Kilgarriff, Paul (Central Bank of Ireland); Gaffney, Edward (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | This Note assesses entry rates of mortgages into arrears since 2012 using loan-level data for Irish domestic banks, with a focus on the monetary tightening period from June 2022 to June 2023. Entry into mortgage arrears reached very low levels by mid-2022 and has remained low, though increasing slightly in 2023. Mortgages with a history of performance problems are more likely to enter arrears, as are mortgages that originated before 2009 and older borrowers. Since 2022, tracker-rate mortgages have been more likely to miss payments than other mortgages. Although most flows into arrears are among mortgages with historical repayment challenges and tracker mortgages, 16 per cent of borrowers entering arrears were on fixed or standard variable rates with no history of mortgage non-performance. |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:fsnote:9/fs/23&r=ure |
| By: | Ivan Soraperra; Joël van der Weele; Marie Claire Villeval (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Shaul Shalvi |
| Abstract: | We experimentally study the social transmission of "inconvenient" information about the externalities generated by one's own decision. In the laboratory, we pair uninformed decision makers with informed senders. Compared to a setting where subjects can choose their information directly, we find that social interactions increase selfish decisions. On the supply side, senders suppress almost 30 percent of "inconvenient" information, driven by their own preferences for information and their beliefs about the decision maker's preferences. On the demand side, about one-third of decision makers avoids senders who transmit inconvenient information ("shooting the messenger"), which leads to assortative matching between information-suppressing senders and information-avoiding decision makers. Having more control over information generates opposing effects on behavior: selfish decision makers remain ignorant more often and donate less, while altruistic decision makers seek out informative senders and give more. We discuss applications to information sharing in social networks and to organizational design |
| Keywords: | Social interactions, Information avoidance, Assortative matching, Ethical behavior, Experiment |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04369898&r=ure |
| By: | H. Champeaux; E. Gautrain; K. Marazyan |
| Abstract: | Bride price customs are widespread in many developing countries. While the economic literature has widely investigated the implications of such transfers on women's welfare, little is known about their consequences on men's premarital behavior. In this paper, we exploit a quasi-natural experiment of a school-building program in Indonesia (INPRES) to investigate the relationship between marriage norms and the internal migrations of young men in age to marry. Based on empirical and theoretical settings of the literature, we rely on the effects of the INPRES program on girls' education and the parents' expectations on their daughters' bride price. Combining anthropological, administrative, and individual-based datasets, we implement a triple-difference approach. We find that men with bride price customs were more likely to migrate to areas more economically attractive than their district of origin. In contrast, no evidence exists of such behavior for men from ethnic groups without marriage payments. We interpret these results as evidence for the fact that men migrate to accumulate resources at destination to meet the parents' bride price expectations and marry at home. We also highlight that these migration strategies are implemented by the less advantaged males in their origin marriage market (latter-borns or from lower social class). These findings suggest that the interaction between marital norms and policies can result in unintended consequences, such as increasing premarital migration. |
| Keywords: | migration;marriage market;cultural norms;Indonesia;marriage payments |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:202402&r=ure |
| By: | Thomas Breda (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, IPP - Institut des politiques publiques); Joyce Sultan Parraud (IPP - Institut des politiques publiques); Lola Touitou (IPP - Institut des politiques publiques) |
| Abstract: | When and where do gender gaps in school performance appear, and what is the role of school in their early evolution? While there is no gap in mathematics performance at the start of first grade, a gap in favor of boys appears and widens during the first year of primary school. Using standardized national assessments administered during first grade (CP) to more than 2.5 million pupils in France between 2018 and 2022, we show that this relative drop in girls' performance is observed for all the cohorts and most of the exercises assessed. The greatest drop-off occurs among the best-performing girls at the start of first grade (those in the top 1 % initially). These girls lose an average of nearly 7 percentile ranks at the start of second grade compared with boys in the same initial percentile. The aggregate dynamic is observed across all social categories and family configurations, and throughout the country. Girls lose slightly less ground compared to boys in classes where the top student in math is a girl, and in priority public schools (REP or REP+). However, characteristics of the school environment explain only a small part of the overall dynamics, suggesting that the girls are losing ground compared to boys in every strata of society. |
| Keywords: | Gender gaps, Math performance, Education |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ipppap:halshs-04414597&r=ure |
| By: | Sarah McNamara (ZEW Mannheim); Guido Neidhöfer (ZEW Mannheim); Patrick Lehnert (University of Zurich) |
| Abstract: | We estimate intergenerational mobility of education for people born 1940-1999 at the subnational level for 40 European countries. The result is a panel of mobility indices for 105 mesoregions (NUTS1), and 215 microregions (NUTS2). We use these indices to make three contributions. First, we describe the geography of intergenerational mobility in Europe. Second, adapting a novel weighting procedure based on cohorts’ relative economic contribution, we transform cohort-linked measures into annual measures of intergenerational mobility for each region. Third, we investigate the relationship between intergenerational mobility and innovation, and find robust evidence that higher mobility is associated with increased innovation. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational Mobility, Equality of Opportunity, Human Capital, Innovation, Regional Economic Performance, Europe |
| JEL: | D63 I24 J62 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2024-664&r=ure |
| By: | Kevin Bl\"attler; Hannes Wallimann; Widar von Arx |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we assess the impact of a fare-free public transport policy for overnight guests on travel mode choice to a Swiss tourism destination. The policy directly targets domestic transport to and from a destination, the substantial contributor to the CO2 emissions of overnight trips. Based on a survey sample, we identify the effect with the help of the random element that the information on the offer from a hotelier to the guest varies in day-to-day business. We estimate a shift from private cars to public transport due to the policy of, on average, 16.9 and 11.6 percentage points, depending on the application of propensity score matching and causal forest. This knowledge is relevant for policy-makers to design future offers that include more sustainable travels to a destination. Overall, our paper exemplifies how such an effect of comparable natural experiments in the travel and tourism industry can be properly identified with a causal framework and underlying assumptions. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.14945&r=ure |
| By: | Francisco Estrada; Veronica Lupi; Wouter Botzen; Richard S.J. Tol (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, BN1 9SL Falmer, United Kingdom) |
| Abstract: | The social cost of carbon (SCC) serves as a concise gauge of climate change's economic impact, often reported at the global and country level. SCC values are disproportionately high for less-developed, populous countries. Assessing the contributions of urban and non-urban areas to the SCC can provide additional insights for climate policy. Cities are essential for defining global emissions, influencing warming levels and associated damages. High exposure and concurrent socioenvironmental problems exacerbate climate change risks in cities. Using a spatially explicit integrated assessment model, the SCC is estimated at USD$137-USD$579/tCO2, rising to USD$262-USD$1, 075/tCO2 when including urban heat island (UHI) warming. Urban SCC dominates, with both urban exposure and the UHI contributing significantly. A permanent 1% reduction of the UHI in urban areas yields net present benefits of USD$484-USD$1, 562 per urban dweller. Global cities have significant leverage and incentives for a swift transition to a low-carbon economy, and for reducing local warming. |
| Keywords: | climate change; climate impacts; urban heat island effect; social cost of carbon |
| JEL: | Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:0424&r=ure |
| By: | Nedoncelle, Clément; Marchal, Léa; Aubry, Amandine; Héricourt, Jérôme |
| Abstract: | The impact of immigration on native workers' wages has been a topic of long-standing debate. This meta-analysis reviews 42 studies published between 1987 to 2019, offering a comprehensive assessment of reduced-form estimates of the wage effect of immigration. The results confirm that immigration has a negligible effect on native wages. However, a more pronounced wage impact is observable for the U.S. and in recent years. Our analysis underscores the influence of methodological advances and increased data availability in shaping wage effect estimates. Results also highlight the role of the estimator (OLS vs. IV-2SLS, as well as the use of shift-share instruments) in determining the sign and magnitude of the estimated wage effect. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Labour Market, Meta-Analysis, Wage |
| JEL: | C80 J61 J15 J31 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kcgwps:281775&r=ure |
| By: | Bergeaud, Antonin; Guillouzouic, Arthur |
| Abstract: | Following Bergeaud et al. (2022), we construct a new measure of proximity between industrial sectors and public research laboratories. Using this measure, we explore the underlying network of knowledge linkages between scientific fields and industrial sectors in France. We show empirically that there exists a significant negative correlation between the geographical distance between firms and laboratories and their scientific proximity, suggesting strongly localized spillovers. Moreover, we uncover some important differences by field, stronger than when using standard patent-based measures of proximity. |
| Keywords: | knowledge spillovers; technological distance; public laboratories |
| JEL: | O32 O38 R12 |
| Date: | 2023–11–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121289&r=ure |
| By: | Thomas Breda (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Julien Grenet (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Marion Monnet (IREDU - Institut de Recherche sur l'Education : Sociologie et Economie de l'Education [Dijon] - UB - Université de Bourgogne - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE]); Clémentine van Effenterre (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | We show in a large-scale field experiment that a brief exposure to female role models working in scientific fields affects high school students' perceptions and choice of undergraduate major. The classroom interventions reduced the prevalence of stereotypical views on jobs in science and gender differences in abilities. They also made high-achieving girls in Grade 12 more likely to enrol in selective and male-dominated STEM programs in college. Comparing treatment effects across the 56 role model participants, we find that the most effective interventions are those that improved students' perceptions of STEM careers without overemphasizing women's under-representation in science. |
| Keywords: | Role models, Gender gap, STEM, Stereotypes, Choice of study |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04012314&r=ure |
| By: | Estelle Cantillon; Li Chen; Juan Sebastian Pereyra Barreiro |
| Abstract: | AA classic trade-off that school districts face when deciding which matching algorithm to use is that it is not possible to always respect both priorities and preferences. The student-proposing deferred acceptance algorithm (DA) respects priorities but can lead to inefficient allocations. We identify a new condition on school choice markets under which DA is efficient. Our condition generalizes earlier conditions by placing restrictions on how preferences and priorities relate to one another only on the parts that are relevant for the assignment. Whenever there is a unique allocation that respects priorities, our condition captures all the environments for which DA is efficient. We show through stylized examples and simulations that our condition significantly expands the range of known environments for which DA is efficient. We also discuss how our condition sheds light on existing empirical findings. |
| Keywords: | Matching, envyfreeness, fairness, effciency, priorities, preferences, mutually best pairs |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/368382&r=ure |
| By: | Titus Galama (University of Southern California); Andrei Munteanu (Universite du Quebec a Montreal); Kevin Thom (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee) |
| Abstract: | Using linked records from the 1880 to 1940 full-count United States decennial censuses, we estimate the effects of parental exposure to compulsory schooling (CS) laws on the human capital outcomes of children, exploiting the staggered roll-out of state CS laws in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. CS reforms not only increased the educational attainment of exposed individuals, but also that of their children. We find that one extra year of maternal (paternal) exposure to CS increased children's educational attainment by 0.015 (0.016) years - larger than the average effects on the parents themselves, and larger than the few existing intergenerational estimates from studies of more recent reforms. We find particularly large effects on black families and first-born sons. Exploring mechanisms, we find suggestive evidence that higher parental exposure to CS affected children's outcomes through higher own human capital, marriage to more educated spouses, and a higher propensity to reside in neighborhoods with greater school resources (teacher-to-student ratios) and with higher average educational attainment. |
| Keywords: | Census, educational attainment, 19th century, maternal education, racial disparities |
| JEL: | E24 H52 J15 J12 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2024-003&r=ure |
| By: | Weerachart Kilenthong; Sartja Duangchaiyoosook; Wasinee Jantorn; Varunee Khruapradit |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the effectiveness of intensive and hands-on on-site training for preschool teachers using a randomized controlled trial in rural Thailand. The main finding is that the intervention led to an increase in the effectiveness of the classroom in terms of children’s cognitive skills by almost 50 percent relative to the control group. The on-site training intervention is cost-effective, costing 32.7 USD per student. Further investigation reveals that its specificity regarding the teaching approach or curriculum and detailed weekly teaching plans could be critical to its success. |
| Keywords: | Teacher training; Teacher professional development; Early childhood; School readiness; On-site training; Randomized controlled trial |
| JEL: | I21 I25 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:215&r=ure |
| By: | David Escamilla-Guerrero; Andrea Papadia; Ariell Zimran |
| Abstract: | The effects of immigration are reasonably well understood in developed countries, but they are far more poorly understood in developing ones despite the importance of these countries as immigrant destinations. We address this shortcoming by studying the effects of immigration to Brazil during the Age of Mass Migration on its agricultural sector in 1920. This context benefits from the widely recognized value of historical perspective in studies of the effects of immigration. But unlike studies that focus on the United States to understand the effects of migration from poor to rich countries, our context is informative of developing countries’ experience because Brazil in this period was unique among major migrant destinations as a low-income country with a large agricultural sector and weak institutions. Instrumenting for a municipality’s immigrant share using the interaction of aggregate immigrant inflows and the expansion of Brazil’s railway network, we find that a greater immigrant share in a municipality led to an increase in farm values. We show that the bulk of the effect of immigration can be explained by more intense cultivation of land, which we attribute to temporary immigrants exerting greater labor effort than natives. Finally, we find that it is unlikely that immigration’s effect on agriculture slowed Brazil’s structural transformation. |
| Date: | 2024–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_211&r=ure |
| By: | Tabuga, Aubrey D.; Vargas, Anna Rita P.; Baino, Madeleine Louise S. |
| Abstract: | The challenges faced by farming communities, such as typhoons, floods, droughts, volcanic eruptions, and pest infestations, can pose significant costs to their livelihoods. This study examines the resilience of upland farming households using a small yet novel survey conducted in the municipality of Atok in Benguet. To analyze resilience, the study explores indicators based on the conceptual framework Schipper and Langston (2015) put forward, namely learning, options, and flexibility. Principal Components Analysis (PCA) was applied for index creation, while ordered logistic regression was employed to assess recovery levels of farming households. The findings show that factors contributing to the learning dimension of resilience include wealth/assets, strategic positioning within social networks, and access to transportation proxied by vehicle ownership. The study recommends targeted interventions for households in lower-income brackets, peripheral network positions, and those lacking their own means of transportation, especially focusing on enhancing learning capacities. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | resilience;upland farming;recovery;agricultural sector |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2023-24&r=ure |
| By: | Gallardo, Roberto |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2024–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ncrcrd:339557&r=ure |
| By: | Wayne Passmore; Roger Sparks |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes a model of the mortgage market, considering scenarios with and without government-sponsored mortgage securitization. Conventional wisdom says that securitization, by fostering diversification and creating a “safe†asset in the form of mortgage-backed security (MBS), will reduce risk and enhance liquidity, thereby mitigating financial crises. We construct a strategic-game framework to model the interaction between the securitizer and banks. In this framework, the securitizer initiates the process by setting the MBS contract terms, which includes the guaranteed rate and the criterion that qualifies a mortgage for securitization. The bank then selects which qualifying mortgages to exchange for the MBS. Our investigation leads to a key result: government-sponsored securitization, somewhat counterintuitively, is more likely to exacerbate the severity and frequency of financial crises. |
| Keywords: | Financial Crises; Government Sponsored; Mortgage Market; Mortgage-backed securities (MBS); Securitization |
| Date: | 2024–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-02&r=ure |
| By: | Pratap Singh, Anuj (Central Bank of Ireland); Yao, Fang (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | How has debt service capacity of Irish households evolved in the inflationary and rising interest rate environment? Survey data from September 2023 shows that the majority of household borrowers remain resilient in this environment, but a considerable proportion remain at risk due to low levels of liquid savings useable for debt servicing. We find that one in two mortgage borrowers report having less than three months of savings to service their debts in the event of prolonged income loss. This may be driven by difficulty in saving, as we find 31 per cent of mortgage borrowers report zero monthly savings out of income, while 51 per cent report zero excess savings accumulated during the pandemic. Moreover, the survey suggests that vulnerable borrowers may be more likely to enter arrears or take on further debts if the economic environment stays the same or worsens. |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:fsnote:8/fs/23&r=ure |
| By: | Anson Zhou (The University of Hong Kong) |
| Abstract: | Teachers account for less than 5% of the workforce but have disproportionate impacts on the achievements of future generations. This paper studies how the reward structure of teachers affects income inequality at the aggregate level. I show that, in a dynamic environment, there is a two-way relationship between teacher quality and population-wide human capital distribution. On the one hand, the dispersion of human capital governs the occupation selection effect on teacher quality. On the other hand, deteriorating teacher quality elevates the dispersion itself through children’s human capital formation. Exploiting empirical evidence on duty-to-bargain laws, I identify the model in closed form and quantify the proposed mechanism. Counterfactual results suggest that rewarding teachers’ human capital, e.g., through performance-based compensations, has large dynamic spillover effects such as reducing aggregate income inequality and boosting intergenerational mobility. |
| Keywords: | teachers, human capital, inequality |
| JEL: | I24 J24 J31 J45 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2024-001&r=ure |
| By: | Andrew M. Dumont |
| Abstract: | In the United States, long-term changes in the nature of the economy – including advances in technological innovation and automation, declines in the extraction of certain energy resources, increases in globalization, and a shift to the "knowledge-based" economy – have coincided with disproportionately negative employment outcomes in many rural, or "nonmetro, " communities, especially for prime working-age men and those with less than a high school degree. |
| Date: | 2024–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2024-01-19-1&r=ure |
| By: | Hans Bonesrønning; Jon Marius Vaag Iversen |
| Abstract: | We use data from a large field experiment where young students were pulled out of their regular classes and offered mathematics instruction in small homogenous groups, to investigate the importance of the tutors’ instructional practices. The analyzes are limited to low achievers, and the instructional practices are characterized by the degree of individualization and the tutors’ allocation of attention between students. Tutors who spent much time with avoidant students were associated with a treatment effect of approximately 0.20 SD while tutors who spent little time with these students were associated with no significant treatment effects. |
| Keywords: | tutoring, tutor quality |
| JEL: | I20 I21 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10878&r=ure |
| By: | Osiris Jorge Parcero |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at a country's optimal central-government optimal policy in a setting where its two identical local jurisdictions compete to attract footloose multinationals to their sites, and where the considered multinationals strictly prefer this country to the rest of the world. For the sake of realism the model allows the local jurisdictions to choose between firm-specific and non-firm-specific policies. We show that the implementation of the jurisdictional firm-specific policy is weakly welfare dominant. Hence the frequent calls for the central government to ban the former type of policies go against the advice of this paper. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.04243&r=ure |
| By: | John C. Driscoll; Jessica N. Flagg; Bradley Katcher; Kamila Sommer |
| Abstract: | In the early stages of the pandemic, income support and forbearance programs led consumer loan delinquency rates to fall to near-record lows for borrowers across the credit score distribution. Since the second half of 2021, however, delinquency rates have risen, and by 2023:Q3, overall rates for auto and credit card loans had risen above their pre-pandemic levels. |
| Date: | 2024–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2024-01-12&r=ure |
| By: | Shengwen Shi (School of Economics, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai, China); Jian'an Zhang (School of Economics, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai, China) |
| Abstract: | For most developing countries, increasing the equalization of basic public services is widely recognized as an effective channel to improve people's sense of contentment. However, for many emerging economies like China, the equalization level of basic public services may often be neglected in the trade-off between the speed and quality of development. Taking the Yangtze River Delta region of China as an example, this paper first adopts the coupling coordination degree model to explore current status of basic public services in this region, and then uses Moran's I index to study the overall equalization level of development there. Moreover, this paper uses the Theil index to analyze the main reasons for the spatial differences in the level of public services, followed by the AF method to accurately identify the exact weaknesses of the 40 counties of 10 cities with the weakest level of basic public service development. Based on this, this paper provides targeted optimization initiatives and continues to explore the factors affecting the growth of the level of public service equalization through the convergence model, verifying the convergence trend of the degree of public service equalization, and ultimately providing practical policy recommendations for promoting the equalization of basic public services. |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.06134&r=ure |
| By: | Liu, Dr Ziang |
| Abstract: | This article studies the long-term wage development in China between 1530 and 1840. In the long run, nominal wages moved in tandem with prices, but did not respond as quickly as the increase in prices. Real wages experienced two substantial falls between the 1620s-1650s and the 1740s-1760s, but remained relatively stable in the remainder of the period examined. Rural-urban wage disparities suggest that the agricultural sector, rather than urban industries, continued to absorb surplus labour. A comparison of wages in Lower Yangzi China and England suggests that the wage gap widens after 1700. |
| Keywords: | wage; living standard; labour market; early modern China; great divergence; Elsevier deal |
| JEL: | N30 N15 J21 J31 |
| Date: | 2023–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121169&r=ure |
| By: | Raphaël Franck; Victor Gay |
| Abstract: | This study argues that urbanization changed the relationship between the occupation of candidates running in parliamentary elections and their electoral success. To identify local-level variation in urbanization, we leverage exogenous changes to the boundaries of electoral constituencies in the 1928, 1932, and 1936 French parliamentary elections. The results suggest that urbanization was detrimental to the electoral success of lawyers but beneficial to that of employees and workers. This electoral effect of urbanization was especially felt on the left of the political spectrum, whereby left-wing employees and workers crowded out left-wing lawyers. |
| Keywords: | elections, political representation, urbanization |
| JEL: | D72 K16 N44 N94 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10885&r=ure |
| By: | Byrne, Shane (Central Bank of Ireland and Trinity College Dublin); Devine, Kenneth (Central Bank of Ireland and University College Dublin); King, Michael (Trinity College Dublin); McCarthy, Yvonne (Central Bank of Ireland); Palmer, Christopher (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, NBER, and J-PAL) |
| Abstract: | Under-refinancing limits the transmission of accommodative monetary policy to the household sector and costs mortgage holders in many countries a significant fraction of income annually. We test whether targeted communication can reduce the attention frictions that inhibit transmission by partnering with a large bank to analyze a field experiment testing messages sent to 12, 000 Irish households. While we find only small effects of disclosure design improvements, a reminder letter increases refinancing by 76%, from 8.9% to 15.7%. To interpret this reminder effect, we extend and estimate a mixture model of inattentive financial decision-making to allow for disclosure treatment effects on attention. We find that reminders increase the likelihood mortgage holders are attentive by over 60%, from 24% to 39%. A conservative back-of-the-envelope cost-effectiveness calculation implies that the average reminder letter generated e42 of mortgage borrower consumption (e605 per refinancing household). Our results illustrate that regulatory interventions to enhance lenders’ communication to customers, such as refinancing reminders - or, in a more theoretical setup, targeted central bank communications - could have a larger effect on refinancing than a standard policy rate cut. Reminders could further strengthen the refinancing channel and stimulate local consumption even when policy rates are at the zero-lower bound or set in a monetary union. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy transmission, inattention, refinancing, central bank communication, disclosure. |
| JEL: | D83 E58 G21 G28 G51 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:wpaper:6/rt/23&r=ure |
| By: | Friedman, Sam; Gronwald, Victoria; Summers, Andrew; Taylor, Emma |
| JEL: | N0 E6 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121396&r=ure |
| By: | Jonathan Colmer; Suvy Qin; John Voorheis; Reed Walker |
| Abstract: | This paper uses administrative tax records linked to Census demographic data and high-resolution measures of fine small particulate (PM2.5) exposure to study the evolution of the Black-White pollution exposure gap over the past 40 years. In doing so, we focus on the various ways in which income may have contributed to these changes using a statistical decomposition. We decompose the overall change in the Black-White PM2.5 exposure gap into (1) components that stem from rank-preserving compression in the overall pollution distribution and (2) changes that stem from a reordering of Black and White households within the pollution distribution. We find a significant narrowing of the Black-White PM2.5 exposure gap over this time period that is overwhelmingly driven by rank-preserving changes rather than positional changes. However, the relative positions of Black and White households at the upper end of the pollution distribution have meaningfully shifted in the most recent years. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:24-04&r=ure |
| By: | Falilou Fall; Priscilla Fialho; Tony Huang |
| Abstract: | Infrastructure investment has been low in Brazil over the last decades, leaving significant gaps in all infrastructure sectors. To close these gaps, public investment will need to increase and become more effective, while additional private resources need to be mobilised. Improving strategic planning and effectively translating it into budget allocations over time would increase the quality of infrastructure projects. Promoting foreign participation in public procurement would raise competition and value for public money, while strengthening the governance of SOEs would enhance the quality of infrastructure services. Minimising policy and judicial risks would help to leverage more private infrastructure financing, including at longer maturities, while ensuring an adequate risk sharing between public and private actors. |
| Keywords: | Financial Risk and Management, Financing Policy, Government Investment, Infrastructure, Road Maintenance, Transportation Planning |
| JEL: | G32 H54 L91 R42 |
| Date: | 2024–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1790-en&r=ure |
| By: | L. Serafini; E. Marrocu; R. Paci |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the impact of the Smart Specialisation Strategy (S3) and Industry 4.0 (I4) initiatives during the 2014-2020 programming period on firms' performance in Italy. By analysing European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)-funded projects under these frameworks, we use OpenCoesione data and a Difference-in-Differences approach to assess the effectiveness of S3 and I4 initiatives. Our results reveal that projects integrating I4 technologies within the S3 framework (S3I4 projects) significantly enhance firms' performance. This is particularly evident when compared to projects funded under other ERDF initiatives. The study highlights the importance of aligning S3 and I4 strategies with regional economic profiles and innovation capacities to maximise their impact. Our analysis underscores the role of these initiatives in driving innovation and economic growth. The results offer key insights for policymakers, suggesting that focused and strategic investment in S3 and I4 can lead to more effective regional innovation and development. |
| Keywords: | Industry 4.0;Innovation and firm Performance;Cohesion Policy;Counterfactual Impact Analysis;Smart Specialisation Strategy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:202403&r=ure |
| By: | Maczulskij, Terhi; Kanninen, Ohto; Karhunen, Hannu; Tahvonen, Ossi |
| Abstract: | Abstract The paper investigates the impact of involuntary job loss on severe debt problems in Finland, where up to 50% of income may be subject to wage garnishment for 25 years. We use linked employer-employee data combined with unique administrative records covering debt enforcements from 2007 to 2018. Our event study analysis uncovers a robust and persistent impact of job loss, characterized by plant closures and mass layoffs, on debt-related challenges. Specifically, displaced workers have a 5% higher likelihood of enforced debts in the year of displacement compared to the control group. This effect increases, peaking at 16% four years post-displacement and maintaining a substantial level of roughly 10% nine years afterwards. Effects are particularly large for unpaid taxes, penal orders and fines, while job loss demonstrates only a modest impact on unpaid social or healthcare payments and alimonies. Moreover, these effects are more profound among males, less educated, and individuals already burdened with excessive debt, such as mortgages, prior to displacement. |
| Keywords: | Default, Debt enforcement, Involuntary job loss, Employer-employee data |
| JEL: | D14 G51 J64 J65 |
| Date: | 2024–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:wpaper:115&r=ure |
| By: | Virginia Minni |
| Abstract: | How are wages set within a multinational firm? Combining cross-country data on wages and labor regulations with personnel records of a large multinational firm, I find that wage setting depends on the rank of the employee in the firm hierarchy. For managers, wages are set by the headquarters regardless of local labor market conditions. For factory workers, wages are adjusted according to country-specific wages and labor regulations. These results suggest that the multinational's internal labor market shields managers against changes in external market conditions, while the firm adapts to local labor markets for factory workers. |
| Keywords: | multinationals, firm wage-setting, inequality |
| Date: | 2024–01–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1975&r=ure |
| By: | Mr. Nicolas End |
| Abstract: | Identifying the causal impact of capital inflows on growth and development has been a perennial challenge. This paper proposes a new way to investigate the effect of capital flows on recipient emerging and developing economies, using shift-share instruments and correcting for indirect flows. It finds a significantly beneficial effect of loan and bond inflows on economic performance, which materializes after a few years. It also finds some confirmation that the absorptive capacity of recipient economies depends on their fundamentals. |
| Keywords: | Capital flows; economic growth; shift-share instrument |
| Date: | 2024–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/015&r=ure |
| By: | Adolfo Cristobal Campoamor; Osiris Jorge Parcero |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a two blocks and three regions economic geography model that can account for the most salient stylized facts experienced by Eastern European transition economies during the period 1990 2005. In contrast to the existing literature, which has favored technological explanations, trade liberalization is the only driving force. The model correctly predicts that in the first half of the period, trade liberalization led to divergence in GDP per capita, both between the West and the East and within the East. Consistent with the data, in the second half of the period, this process was reversed and convergence became the dominant force. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.05107&r=ure |
| By: | Chen, Kelly (Boise State University); Jiang, Xuan (Jinan University) |
| Abstract: | Most colleges allow low-performing students to make a repeated attempt for the same course, but little is known about its implications for the academic success of these students. Using the variations in repetition induced by the cancellation and reversal of a university GPA policy to correct for student selection, we quantify the effects of course repetition on below-average students' subsequent outcomes. We find that students develop greater interest, persist longer, and perform better in a given subject upon repetition in comparison to their non-repeating classmates who receive the same initial-attempt grade. The observed repetition effects are particularly pronounced for the students who are exposed to the college environment and/or a subject matter for the first time and are entirely explained by the gains in learning. Importantly, while boosting graduation rates, a moderate number of repetitions during a student's undergraduate career is not found to cause any disruptions to the student's routine progress in pursuing a degree. |
| Keywords: | course repetition, grade replacement, college student success, graduation, time-to-degree |
| JEL: | I23 I24 J24 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16690&r=ure |
| By: | Theodoros Chatzivasileiadis; Ignasi Cortes Arbues; Jochen Hinkel; Daniel Lincke; Richard S.J. Tol (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, BN1 9SL Falmer, United Kingdom) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the long-term economic impact of sea-level rise (SLR) on coastal regions in Europe, focusing on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Using a novel dataset covering regional SLR and economic growth from 1900 to 2020, we quantify the relationships between SLR and regional GDP per capita across 79 coastal EU & UK regions. Our results reveal that the current SLR has already negatively influenced GDP of coastal regions, leading to a cumulative 4.7% loss at 39 cm of SLR. Over the 120 year period studied, the actualised impact of SLR on the annual growth rate is between -0.02% and 0.04%. Extrapolating these findings to future climate and socio-economic scenarios, we show that in the absence of additional adaptation measures, GDP losses by 2100 could range between -6.3% and -20.8% under the most extreme SLR scenario (SSP5-RCP8.5 High-end Ice, or -4.0% to -14.1% in SSP5-RCP8.5 High Ice). This statistical analysis utilising a century-long dataset, provides an empirical foundation for designing region-specific climate adaptation strategies to mitigate economic damages caused by SLR. Our evidence supports the argument for strategically relocating assets and establishing coastal setback zones when it is economically preferable and socially agreeable, given that protection investments have an economic impact. |
| Keywords: | climate change; sea level rise |
| JEL: | Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:0324&r=ure |
| By: | Jerg Gutmann; Pascal Langer; Matthias Neuenkirch |
| Abstract: | In this first empirical analysis of how sanctions affect international migration, we apply two estimation strategies, a panel difference-in-differences model and an event study approach. Our dataset covers 79, 791 dyad-year observations, reflecting migration flows from 157 origin countries to 32 (largely OECD) destination countries between 1961 and 2018. The data supports that UN and joint EU-US sanctions increase emigration from target countries by around 20 percent. Our event study results for joint EU-US sanctions imply a gradual increase in emigration over the course of a sanction episode. The impact of UN sanctions on international migration is smaller and less persistent. Moreover, the effects are driven by target countries with fewer political rights and civil liberties, where emigration substitutes for the costly voicing of dissent. Finally, our results do not support systematic gender differences in the effect of sanctions on migration. |
| Keywords: | exit, gender differences, international sanctions, migration, voice |
| JEL: | F22 F51 J16 O15 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10882&r=ure |
| By: | Epetia, Ma. Christina F.; Ocbina, John Joseph S.; Librero, Kimberly R. |
| Abstract: | This study explores the potential impact of school closures on in-person learning and parents’ labor supply in terms of paid employment and hours of work. Using a probit model, it finds that regardless of educational attainment, women with school-age children face a lower probability of being on paid employment, but the same cannot be observed among men with school-age children. The Heckman model was applied to estimate the log of hours of work. Conditional on employment, it was observed that school closures do not significantly determine the log of hours of work for both men and women with school-age children. However, further disaggregating the estimates by education reveals that female college graduates—and, to some extent, male college graduates—with school-age children tend to work more hours during school closures. In contrast, school closures do not affect the work hours of less educated men and women with children. Overall, the results suggest that school closures have a negative effect on employment at the extensive margin for women, but there is no evidence of reduced labor supply at the intensive margins. Policies aimed at preserving employment and mitigating human capital deterioration can thus address the cost of school closures on women’s labor supply. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | labor supply;COVID-19 pandemic;school closures;gender differentials |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2023-26&r=ure |
| By: | KATO Rui; MIYAKAWA Daisuke; YANAOKA Masaki; YUKIMOTO Shinji |
| Abstract: | The use of GPS location data is increasingly common in recent years. In this paper, we use individual-level GPS location data to measure the size of factory-level populations and to forecast the leasing demand of the transaction partners of the companies for which the factory-level population is measured. First, we use GPS location data to measure changes in the population at the main factories of companies in the manufacturing industry. Second, using such measured data and their lease contract data, we construct a machine learning-based prediction model of leasing demand within the company’s suppliers. Except for the periods when corporate activities were greatly disturbed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the use of the GPS location data improves the prediction power of the leasing demand. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:24005&r=ure |
| By: | Efthymios Pavlidis |
| Abstract: | Periodically collapsing bubbles, if they exist, induce asymmetric dynamics in asset prices. In this paper, I show that unit root quantile autoregressive models can approximate such dynamics by allowing the largest autoregressive root to take values below unity at low quantiles, which correspond to price crashes, and above unity at upper quantiles, that correspond to bubble expansions. On this basis, I employ two unit root tests based on quantile regressions to detect bubbles. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that the two tests have good size and power properties, and can outperform recursive least-squares-based tests that allow for time variation in persistence. The merits of the two tests are further illustrated in three empirical applications that examine Bitcoin, U.S. equity and U.S. housing markets. In the empirical applications, special attention is given to the issue of controlling for economic fundamentals. The estimation results indicate the presence of asymmetric dynamics that closely match those of the simulated bubble processes. |
| Keywords: | rational bubbles, unit root quantile autoregressions, cryptocurrencies, U.S. house prices, S&P 500 |
| JEL: | C12 C22 G10 R30 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lan:wpaper:404203101&r=ure |
| By: | Barbaglia, Luca (European Commission); Fatica, Serena (European Commission); Rho, Caterina (European Commission) |
| Abstract: | We document that European banks charge higher interest rates on loans granted to firms in areas at high risk of flooding. At 6 basis points, the average risk premium is rather small, and does not adequately reflect the deterioration of loan performance in the aftermath of flood episodes, however. Firms in flooded counties are more likely to default on their loans than non-disaster firms. Floods reduce securitised credit in the local markets, suggesting that physical risks associated with climate change are borne within the banking sector. |
| Keywords: | climate change, loan default, loan pricing, natural disasters |
| JEL: | C55 G21 Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrs:wpaper:202314&r=ure |
| By: | Bellaumay, Rémy |
| Abstract: | When people dream of emigration, do they want to go to a rich country or for a happy one? While on an international scale, the two often go hand in hand, the Gallup World Poll, which asks questions about emigration aspirations, shows that the two elements come into play separately: countries with greater average life satisfaction exert an attraction beyond their wealth and historical proximity to countries of origin. Plans to emigrate in the next year, more concrete than aspirations or hopes, follow a similar pattern with only some modifications due to regulatory and geographical constraints. The persistence of life satisfaction of destination countries as a predictor indicates the force of attraction of the possibility of a better life. Where people actually go may be different from the place that they hoped to go – attesting to the power of immigration barriers. Once arrived in the host country, immigrants' life satisfaction tends to be lower than that of the native-born – however, the ranking of countries is the same whether we consider the criterion of their satisfaction or that of the native-born. |
| Keywords: | Wellbeing, Migration |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:notobe:2316b&r=ure |
| By: | Robin Jarry (LIRMM | ICAR - Image & Interaction - LIRMM - Laboratoire d'Informatique de Robotique et de Microélectronique de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UM - Université de Montpellier); Marc Chaumont (LIRMM | ICAR - Image & Interaction - LIRMM - Laboratoire d'Informatique de Robotique et de Microélectronique de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UM - Université de Montpellier, UNIMES - Université de Nîmes); Laure Berti-Équille (UMR 228 Espace-Dev, Espace pour le développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - AU - Avignon Université - UR - Université de La Réunion - UG - Université de Guyane - UA - Université des Antilles - UM - Université de Montpellier, AMU - Aix Marseille Université); Gérard Subsol (LIRMM | ICAR - Image & Interaction - LIRMM - Laboratoire d'Informatique de Robotique et de Microélectronique de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | In remote sensing, deep spatio-temporal models, i.e., deep learning models that estimate information based on Satellite Image Time Series obtain successful results in Land Use/Land Cover classification or change detection. Nevertheless, for socioeconomic applications such as poverty estimation, only deep spatial models have been proposed. In this paper, we propose a test-bed to compare spatial and spatio-temporal paradigms to estimate the evolution of Nighttime Light (NTL), a standard proxy for socioeconomic indicators. We applied the test-bed in the area of Zanzibar, Tanzania for 21 years. We observe that (1) both models obtain roughly equivalent performances when predicting the NTL value at a given time, but (2) the spatio-temporal model is significantly more efficient when predicting the NTL evolution. |
| Keywords: | Zanzibar, Tanzania, Deep learning, Time series analysis, Estimation, Predictive models, Satellite images, Standards, Remote sensing |
| Date: | 2023–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04268542&r=ure |
| By: | Jiayang Li; Qianni Wang; Liyang Feng; Jun Xie; Yu Marco Nie |
| Abstract: | The lack of a unique user equilibrium (UE) route flow in traffic assignment has posed a significant challenge to many transportation applications. The maximum-entropy principle, which advocates for the consistent selection of the most likely solution as a representative, is often used to address the challenge. Built on a recently proposed day-to-day (DTD) discrete-time dynamical model called cumulative logit (CULO), this study provides a new behavioral underpinning for the maximum-entropy UE (MEUE) route flow. It has been proven that CULO can reach a UE state without presuming travelers are perfectly rational. Here, we further establish that CULO always converges to the MEUE route flow if (i) travelers have zero prior information about routes and thus are forced to give all routes an equal choice probability, or (ii) all travelers gather information from the same source such that the so-called general proportionality condition is satisfied. Thus, CULO may be used as a practical solution algorithm for the MEUE problem. To put this idea into practice, we propose to eliminate the route enumeration requirement of the original CULO model through an iterative route discovery scheme. We also examine the discrete-time versions of four popular continuous-time dynamical models and compare them to CULO. The analysis shows that the replicator dynamic is the only one that has the potential to reach the MEUE solution with some regularity. The analytical results are confirmed through numerical experiments. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2401.08013&r=ure |
| By: | Bachir El Murr (Université Libanaise); Genane Youness (LINEACT - Laboratoire d'Innovation Numérique pour les Entreprises et les Apprentissages au service de la Compétitivité des Territoires - CESI - CESI : groupe d’Enseignement Supérieur et de Formation Professionnelle - HESAM - HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université, CEDRIC - MSDMA - CEDRIC. Méthodes statistiques de data-mining et apprentissage - CEDRIC - Centre d'études et de recherche en informatique et communications - ENSIIE - Ecole Nationale Supérieure d'Informatique pour l'Industrie et l'Entreprise - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - HESAM - HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université); Rola Assaf |
| Abstract: | COVID-19 pandemic still impact higher education system, stakeholders and environment all around the world. Students, teachers, academic institutions and education decision makers were shocked by an atypical new context they promptly put in face, asking drastic change in behavior and procedures at individual, familial and institutional levels. Full lockdown and closing campuses enforced students and teachers staying and sticking home, fronting unusual domestic for work atmosphere and unacquainted online learning and teaching technologies. Consequent back to classroom framework also imposes new sanitary and social distancing conditions leading to new teaching and learning habits that affected in many ways the performance of teaching. The aim of this paper is to apprehend all the challenges that may arise in similar critical situations to make convenient decisions helping to avoid the education system shutdown or to benefit from the previous experience to adapt future behaviors and perform tools and practices. For such purpose, the present paper reviews all the determinant factors of the teaching performance in both alternative online and classroom modes of dispensing courses in the COVID-19 Lebanese context, using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling approach (PLS-SEM). It appears that all manifest variables corresponding to latent variables have a reflective measurement model. After the convergence of the algorithm of Partial Lest Square (PLS), the structural path significance test of both inner and outer model is verified by a bootstrap procedure with 1000 subsamples. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19 Impact Online and Classroom Teaching Performance Partial Least Squares -Structural Equation Modeling Bootstrap Goodness of Fit, COVID-19 Impact, Online and Classroom Teaching Performance, Partial Least Squares -Structural Equation Modeling, Bootstrap, Goodness of Fit |
| Date: | 2024–01–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04395911&r=ure |
| By: | Uchenna, Efobi; Joseph, Ajefu |
| Abstract: | This research examines the effect of internally displaced persons (IDPs) resettlement on the anthropometric outcomes of the host community's children in Nigeria. Our identification strategy characterizes affected children based on distance heterogeneities between the household and the closest IDP camp, as well as the child's birth year. We find that children residing within a 50-kilometer radius of the settlement with birth years after the IDP settlement in their community are less likely to be underweight, stunted, or wasted. Importantly, we contend that these findings arise because mothers benefited from changes in agricultural food prices, which led to increased agricultural productivity. Furthermore, the settlement resulted in a rise in donor-related activities in their community, namely immunization campaigns. In our data, we explore these mechanisms, demonstrating a significant likelihood of mothers participating in agricultural labor versus services or other professional employment and a significant increase in vaccination intake for affected children. |
| Keywords: | Anthropometric Measures, Child Wellbeing, Forced Migration, IDPs, Nigeria, Vulnerability |
| JEL: | F35 J13 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1381&r=ure |
| By: | Amior, Michael (Hebrew University, Jerusalem); Stuhler, Jan (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | We argue that the arrival of immigrants with low reservation wages can strengthen the monopsony power of firms. Firms can exploit "cheap" migrant labor by offering lower wages, though at the cost of forgoing potential native hires who demand higher wages. This monopsonistic trade-off can lead to large negative effects on native employment, which exceed those in competitive models, and which are concentrated among low-paying firms. To validate these predictions, we study changes in wage premia and employment across the firm pay distribution, during a large immigration wave in Germany. These adverse effects are not inevitable, and may be ameliorated through policies which constrain firms' monopsony power over migrants. |
| Keywords: | immigration, monopsony, firms |
| JEL: | J31 J42 J61 J64 J11 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16692&r=ure |
| By: | Becker, Malte (Kiel Institute for the World Economy); Krüger, Finja (Kiel Institute for the World Economy); Heidland, Tobias (Kiel Institute for the World Economy) |
| Abstract: | We explore whether attitudes toward immigration and their determinants known from well-studied high-income countries also hold in so far understudied low-income settings where the economic, societal, and geopolitical circumstances differ markedly. Using a causal framework based on experimental and survey data in Uganda and Senegal, we extend the literature by introducing a new concept - power concerns - to test whether perceptions of foreign influence in business and politics affect attitudes toward immigrants. Furthermore, we provide evidence of the perceptions of Chinese immigrants in Africa, whose increasing presence is highly controversial and politicized. |
| Keywords: | attitudes toward immigration, China in Africa, migration, experiment, conjoint |
| JEL: | F22 O15 O55 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16734&r=ure |
| By: | Albert, Jose Ramon G.; Tabuga, Aubrey D.; Vizmanos, Jana Flor V.; Muñoz, Mika S.; Hernandez, Angelo C.; Habitan, Ma. Teresa |
| Abstract: | As the country witnesses a steady export of its human resources, it becomes imperative to explore not only the immediate impacts of labor migration on the Philippine economy but also its long-term consequences on both the overseas Filipino workers and the families they leave behind. This study examines the various effects of labor migration on OFWs and their families, including the economic benefits and social costs (e.g., family dynamics, child outcomes in terms of labor, health, education) of the diaspora, and what the government has done to assist these modern-day heroes. Remittances sent home by OFWs have become a major contributor to the Philippine economy, representing around 10 percent of gross domestic product. This provides income for families and supports consumer spending. However, labor migration has led to divided families and complex transnational relationships between OFWs and their families in the Philippines. While remittances support loved ones, being miles away from loved ones can cause psychic pains. Findings from interviews with OFWs and their families also suggest that young OFWs dream of retiring early but may not be provided systematic support for financial literacy. The paper calls for strengthening the reinforcement of legal frameworks, enhancing the labor market, improving social protection programs for OFWs and their families, equipping them with the necessary skills to achieve financial sustainability, and regularly monitoring OFW conditions for evidence-informed policymaking. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | labor migration;overseas Filipino workers;OFW;labor export;diaspora |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2023-17&r=ure |
| By: | Bräuer, Richard |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a model that explains both recently documented facts about the decline of disruptive innovation and the decline in productivity growth as the result of large firms trying to monopolize technologies by poaching inventors from disruptive activities. To come to this conclusion, the paper builds an endogenous growth model with inventor labor markets on which firms can interact strategically. To inform this model, I perform an event study of the effect of disruptive inventions on their technology fields using PATSTAT (1980-2010). I document that technology classes without disruption slowly trend towards incrementalism and that after a disruption, more patents get registered and research becomes less incremental. |
| Keywords: | disruptive innovation, general equilibrium, general purpose technology, innovation strategies, inventor labor markets, microeconometrics |
| JEL: | J24 J42 J44 O12 O33 O41 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:281190&r=ure |