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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Daniel Oeter; Simon Wiersma |
| Abstract: | In recent years, Berlin has been the scene of various government interventions in the local real estate market, especially in the residential sector. Alongside measures like the "Mietpreisbremse" (rent brake) and the "Mietendeckel" (rent cap), the establishment of so-called "Erhaltungsgebiete" (urban preservation areas) is one of the most dominant state interventions in the Berlin real estate market. In Germany, urban preservation area statutes are regulations that can be enacted by the municipalities based on the special urban development law according to the German Building Code (BauGB). Since 1995, Berlin has established 74 urban preservation areas to preserve the composition of the local residential population and to avoid segregation and gentrification. This study provides insights into how the designation of urban preservation areas affects local housing prices and whether the objectives pursued by the regulator are achieved. Therefore, a unique data set, including 370, 000 apartment transactions between 1984 and 2020, is analyzed. In combination with spatial data, a staggered difference-in-difference approach is used to investigate the real estate price development before and after the implementation of the respective regulation in comparison to non-regulated properties. |
| Keywords: | Berlin; housing market; housing policies; Staggered Difference-in Difference |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_229&r=ure |
| By: | Robert Lasser; Fabian Hollinetz |
| Abstract: | We use generalized additive models to predict residential real estate prices in Germany. Creating a single model for the whole country would fail to account for spatial heterogeneity in model outputs while too finely grained spatial units would lead to bias due to data sparsity. To overcome this problem, we subdivided Germany into clusters that pool as much data as possible, while also being sufficiently small to retain internal homogeneity. To this end, we employed the SKATER algorithm developed by Assunção et al. (2006) to group spatial units based on postal codes into clusters. The algorithm uses minimum spanning trees to identify regions that share similar characteristics regarding urbanization level, average real estate prices and the number of observed real estate listings. We use real estate listings data to build separate models specific to each of the resulting 25 clusters. In doing so, improve the overall accuracy of our model outputs, i.e. real estate prices on Germany, by capturing regional differences in urbanization and socioeconomic factors. |
| Keywords: | clustering algorithm, residential real estate, GAM, automatic valuation models |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_306&r=ure |
| By: | Stephan D. Whitaker |
| Abstract: | This Data Brief updates the figures that appeared in "Urban and Regional Migration Estimates: Will Your City Recover from the Pandemic?" with data for 2023 Q2 for all series. Migration estimates will enable us to track which urban neighborhoods and metro areas are returning to their old migration patterns and where the pandemic has permanently shifted migration trends. |
| Keywords: | urban economics; regional economics; COVID-19 pandemic; urban migration; Regional migration |
| Date: | 2023–11–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:c00003:97307&r=ure |
| By: | Marcelo DEL Cajias; Anna Freudenreich |
| Abstract: | In this paper, the most influential variables that affect the liquidity (inverse of time on market) of rental apartments are analysed empirically for the city of Munich. Therefore, the random forest machine learning technique based on decision trees is applied. Micro data for more than 100, 000 observations on the residential rental market from 2013 to 2021 is used. As a first step, the main housing, social and spatial predictors of liquidity on the residential rental market are revealed. Results show that the price as well as the size have the greatest impact on the liquidity of residential apartments. From the geographic variables the distances to the next hairdresser, bakery and school are most important. Second, this paper analyses how the survival probability of residential rental apartments responds to these major characteristics. And third, the partial dependency of cost and size on the survival probability is revealed. Hence, the segmentation of dwellings generated by the decision tree methodology results in a deep and profound understanding of the driving factors of liquidity. Although the decision tree methodology has been applied frequently on the real estate market for the analysis of prices, its use for examining liquidity is completely novel. To the best of the authors’ knowledge this is the first paper, to apply a decision tree approach to liquidity analysis on the real estate market. |
| Keywords: | housing; Machine Learning; Random forest; Time on Market |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_35&r=ure |
| By: | Nikolas Müller; Kwast Dennis |
| Abstract: | The lockdowns imposed by COVID-19 put inner cities and high streets to a test. In the meantime, visitor frequencies have returned to pre-pandemic levels. Nevertheless, retailers' sales have not recovered to the same extent. The aim of the paper is to clarify whether a so-called “social transformation” of the inner city is taking place and whether or not it is part of the reason. For this purpose, based on mass-mobile-data in a comparative GIS-multi-layer-approach (mix of methods), different analyses were conducted in the downtown area of major German cities (i.e. Berlin, Hamburg, Köln, Frankfurt, and Leipzig) in the years 2019 (Pre-COVID) and 2022 ("Past"-pandemic). The results show: visitor frequencies have positively regenerated, the temporal use of high streets has changed slightly, the catchment area has changed massively, and accordingly the user groups changed seriously. The social transformation of the inner city is thus in full motion, affecting retail business models and thus the business models of asset managers with real estate in inner cities. Consequently, the results call for a stronger focus on the new user groups and their demands on the inner city. The results are also relevant for policymakers and urban planners, as they make hitherto unmeasurable changes transparent. |
| Keywords: | Mass-mobile-data; social transformation; Urban and regional analysis; Urban Development |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_93&r=ure |
| By: | Colin Jones; Terry Brooke; Neil Dunse |
| Abstract: | The context to this research is office and industrial property market cycles in three Canadian cities - Calgary, Edmonton, and Vancouver. Each of the three cities has a distinct economic base and, as a result, has significantly different commercial property construction cycles. The variations in the primary office and industrial user groups shape these markets and affect investment cycles. The three cities are shown to be rarely in the same phase of a development/investment cycle. The paper examines the implications for the structure of their property stock and the operation of individual city markets. The key focus is on the role of property market cycles in the emergence and changes in office sub-markets. The analysis encompasses annual office building construction cycles in each market on a building-by-building basis over the past 100 years. The analysis is based on traditional multiple regression models and compared to the output of a machine learning model. The results are considered in the context of local and regional policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Canadian cities; property market dynamics; Submarkets; Urban Cycles |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_84&r=ure |
| By: | Anja M. Hahn; Sofie R. Waltl; Sanela Omerovic |
| Abstract: | We use a large sample of residential dwellings transactions to test for a variety of changes in the Austrian real estate market triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. To account for the country's heterogeneous topography as well as degree and type of economic activity, we build hierarchically structured hedonic pricing models. We strategically expand these models by various direct and indirect COVID-19 measures and check their importance over several phases of the pandemic. We find strong co-movement of residential real estate prices with the intensity of the pandemic measured via the timing of strict lock-downs, incidence rates and mobility rates. After a severe downturn of prices and quantities during the first lock-down, both measures recovered rapidly and followed largely accelerating trends thereafter. In addition to that, the pandemic led to relative changes across different segments of the Austrian residential real estate property market: Apartments not offering some kind of open space lost in value as compared to those having access to such amenities. The degree of relative value loss is significant from the second lock-down onward. Between the start of the pandemic and 28 February 2022 the total relative gap in prices amounts to 11.61 percentage points. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; housing market; housing preferences; Spatial Distribution |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_147&r=ure |
| By: | Jonas Wogh; Nils Kok; Jaap Bos |
| Abstract: | Bidding wars, whereby multiple buyers compete for a property and place bids in excess of the initial list price, have become increasingly common in residential real estate markets. However, there is only scarce empirical evidence on their causes and even less evidence on their direct and indirect effects. We link bidding behavior to shocks to local demand by leveraging quasi-experimental variation from a generous tax exemption policy in the Dutch housing market. In those local markets most affected by the policy, the share of transactions above list price increased significantly, compared to less exposed markets. Importantly, this impact of the tax exemption on transaction outcomes is not driven by treated buyers alone but spills over to other buyers, who also increase their bids. Both effects last well beyond the period in which the tax exemption policy exists. The policy also has important wealth effects that outweigh the original tax exemption. Finally, we show that the demand shock does not have a uniform effect, as it is most pronounced in markets that were relatively tight to begin with. |
| Keywords: | Bidding Wars; Demand Shock; Overbidding; Spillovers |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_62&r=ure |
| By: | James Conklin; Kristopher Gerardi; Lauren Lambie-Hanson |
| Abstract: | This paper documents large racial disparities in the ability of homeowners to access their housing wealth without moving. During the 2018–2021 period, Black homeowners’ mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW) product applications were rejected at almost double the rate of White homeowners (44% versus 23%), while Hispanic and Asian homeowners also experienced significantly higher denial rates (32% and 30%, respectively). These racial disparities in denials are much larger than those associated with purchase and rate/term refinance mortgage applications. Controlling for loan and borrower characteristics commonly used in the underwriting process significantly reduces the MEW disparities, with the Black-White denial rate gap falling by approximately 83%, and the Hispanic-White gap falling by 73%. Credit scores and debt-to-income ratios are the most important factors explaining the racial gaps, while differences in loan-to-value ratios contribute only modestly. Large disparities remain after controlling for underwriting factors, and these “residual” disparities vary significantly across lenders. While there are numerous potential drivers of the residual disparities, the pa per shows that they tend to be larger in geographic areas characterized by more racial animus, which suggests that discriminatory forces may play a role. |
| Keywords: | housing wealth; mortgage; home equity; racial disparities |
| JEL: | G21 G51 J15 |
| Date: | 2023–11–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:97266&r=ure |
| By: | Julius Range; Lars Jagemann |
| Abstract: | This study examines how recurrent changes in policy approaches and measures have affected housing construction activity and housing transactions in Germany. The increasing uncertainty of market participants due to these changes and the subsequent adjustments of the market form the basis of many studies in this field. In order to examine the political unpredictability and thus establish a link to the real estate construction sector, a real estate-specific, regionally differentiated index is developed from several reports. In doing so, we observe regional as well as national newspaper articles from 2010 onwards. In addition to the private transaction volume, we also analyze the main determinants of property development decision making. We have found that political changes and housing activity are related. Thus, due to an external shock, private real estate transactions are expceted to decline, which therefore affects the attitude of developers. The results of the study prove the influence of political changes on housing construction as well as transactions and contribute to the traceability of German housing activity. |
| Keywords: | Housing Policy; political uncertainty; Real Estate Development; Sentiment Analysis |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_150&r=ure |
| By: | Anthony Lepinteur; Giorgia Menta; Sofie R. Waltl |
| Abstract: | Participants of an online Luxembourgish study are presented fake real-estate advertisements and tasked to make an offer to the shown properties. A random subset is also shown sellers' names that are strongly framed to signal their origins. Our randomised procedure allows us to conclude that, keeping everything else constant, sellers with African-sounding surnames are systematically offered lower prices. Our most conservative estimates suggest that the average racial penalty stemming from the demand-side of the housing market is equal to 22, 000 euros. Last, we show that this penalty hides important differences across respondents: it is null for the youngest and most educated ones as well as those without any personal ties to an African diaspora, but can amount up to around 65, 000 euros for those above 40 years of age and without post-secondary education. |
| Keywords: | African Sellers; Racial Prejudices; Randomised Online Experiment; Real Estate Advertisements |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_8&r=ure |
| By: | Song Shi; Xunpeng Shi |
| Abstract: | Foreign capital and buyers are often blamed for pushing up housing prices and reducing the supply of affordable housing in Australia. We examine this issue by assessing the impact of Chinese macroprudential policies, such as the limitation on currency transactions (LCT), on Sydney housing prices. Using propensity score matching and difference-in-differences techniques, we find that the LCT policy issued by the People’s Bank of China in 2017 had a strongly negative impact (about -3%) on housing prices in suburbs with larger concentrations of Chinese residents, which are measured by multiple cutoff points—hereafter, Chinese suburbs—in Sydney, Australia. The results are consistent with home bias abroad, which implies that Chinese capital for residential real estate overseas most likely flows to predominately Chinese neighbourhoods in the destination city. We also find evidence that the relationship between this Chinese macroprudential policy and overseas housing prices is more direct to Chinese suburbs, with little impact on housing prices outside Chinese neighbourhoods within the studied period. |
| Keywords: | capital flight; Chinese buyers; foreign investment; limitation on currency transactions |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_149&r=ure |
| By: | Xiaodan Liu; Anupam Nanda; Sotirios Thanos |
| Abstract: | Distance and commuting costs are well-established as key determinants of location choice for place of work and place of residence. However, technological changes in recent decades have greatly affected these factors. Moreover, triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, the widespread adoption of various forms of flexible working, work-from-home (WFH), and hybrid working, enabled by digital infrastructure and services, has been increasingly evident in our daily lives and appears to be prevailing even after the pandemic. As workers are increasingly able to choose residence locations farther away from the place they work, it raises a significant question: how are urban markets affected by the introduction of new ways of working and infrastructure improvements? In this study, a simple two-city model is employed for analysing the patterns of induced changes in aggregate population and employment levels and their impacts on property prices and rents. We also analyse the implications for productivity and the provision of local amenities and look at the possibility of the inequality gap widening due to varying levels of access to new work patterns. This research has substantial implications for policy-making and investment decisions. |
| Keywords: | infrastructure improvements; new urban equilibrium; work patterns |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_295&r=ure |
| By: | Chien-Wen Peng; Yu-Hui Chen; Chunghsien Yang |
| Abstract: | Under the strict land use regulation, the illegal residential use properties face the risk of being fined and the intensity of law enforcement and the possibility of being legalized will affect their prices. This study examines the influences of property right restrictions and rent seeking behavior on housing price by using the transaction data of illegal residential properties in commercial and entertainment district, Dawan north section, Taipei City. The empirical results show that the price of illegal residential use properties is about 21% discount of legal residential use properties. When Taipei City Government strength its law enforcement, the price discount of illegal residential properties increases to 26%. The empirical results confirm that property right restrictions do have profound influences on property prices, and the price gap between illegal and legal use properties depends on intensity of law enforcement. Since land use regulation and its law enforcement will affect not only the quality of environment, but also the value of property rights, equality among land owners, and government authority. We suggest the governments have a more long-term and comprehensive land use planning and regulation, and a stricter enforcement to avoid speculation activities. |
| Keywords: | Housing Price; Land use regulation; Property Rights Restrictioin; Rent Seeking |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_51&r=ure |
| By: | Shaun Bond; Shawn McCoy; Ian McDonough |
| Abstract: | The economic consequences of weather and climate disasters in the United States are of significant concern to institutional investors. In this paper we study commercial real estate market outcomes in response to natural disasters. In particular, we draw on recent research examining resilient regions and show how measures of resiliency may predict which markets and property types recover more quickly from natural disasters. We first investigate the price and cash flow impacts of a natural disaster to understand how market signals are responding to the occurrence of extreme climate events. Second, we consider how investors are responding to, and potentially mitigating, evolving climate risks by examining capital expenditure strategies in areas before and after extreme events occur. In each case we investigate these questions in the context of the economic resiliency of the region in which the property is located. |
| Keywords: | commercial real estate; Hurricanes; Institutional Investors; Natural disasters |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_38&r=ure |
| By: | Qiulin; Bin Chi Ke; Michael White; Bing Zhu |
| Abstract: | During the pandemic time, the UK government introduced Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) rate reduction to stimulate the housing market. Reduced Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) rates would apply for residential properties purchased from 8 July 2020 to 30 September 2021 inclusive. According to the policy, the temporary nil rate band of £500, 000 would be in place until 30 June 2021, then extended to 30 September 2021. Thereafter, the nil rate band would return to the standard amount of £125, 000 on 1 October 2021. The purpose of SDLT reduction was to support the housing market and the jobs and businesses which relied on it. At the same time, it would lower the transaction costs of moving home to maintain the liquidity of the housing market. Evidence suggests the stamp duty holiday made a positive impact on the property market. In this research, we investigate how the tax temporary reduction affects housing prices in the UK, using all housing transactions in the UK from March 2020 to December 2021inclusive, three months pre and post-SDLT cut with quasi-experimental variation from reduction. We also examine whether the effect was consistent across all price bands. |
| Keywords: | Housing Price; stamp duty; Transaction tax; UK |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_339&r=ure |
| By: | Hearne, David; Yerushalmi, Erez |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the association between proximity to bicycle networks and house prices in Greater Manchester using hedonic and spatial regressions. Given the challenges of congestion and pollution, many cities across the world are implementing policies to improve bicycling facilities and other active modes of transport. Bicycle lanes are a solution that could potentially provide significant amenities to residents, but they require investment and the appropriation of limited land. Drawing on a large dataset of approximately 253, 000 transactions, over a 9-year period, we find that a 1 km reduction in distance to the nearest bicycle network is associated with property values being around 3.2% higher, on average, and 7.3% higher in the central borough of Manchester. We also provide an applied example to rank new bicycle routes by comparing their benefit-to-cost ratios. |
| Date: | 2023–11–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:akf:cafewp:24&r=ure |
| By: | Francois Viruly; Uche Ordor |
| Abstract: | This research considers how private and public entities across the African continent continue to perpetuate projects that are often refered to as African urban fantasies. It suggests that although very few projects achieve their urban visions, they continue to be marketed based on narratives that include urban concepts such as Eco-Cities , Smart cities, and the promise of sophisticated urban lifestyles based on the principles of New Urbanism . There is growing evidence indicating that these proposed large developments have little relevance to their local context and are usually based on an unrealistic understanding of the market. Moreover, these projects reflect a complicated interrelationships between the objectives of private and public sector players. From a policy perspective it often includes the provision of financial incentives and urban Infrastructure. This research builds on existing reserach. It draws conclusions regarding the objectives, the institutional arrangements, and the challenges that characterise such projects . The research develops a theoretical framework that could be used to better understand the development of large African Urban projects. |
| Keywords: | African Cities; Institutions; Property Development; Urbanism |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_191&r=ure |
| By: | Bastian Krämer; Moritz Stang; Vanja Doskoc; Wolfgang Schäfers; Friedrich Tobias |
| Abstract: | The use of Automated Valuation Models (AVMs) in the context of traditional real estate valuations and their performance has been discussed in the academic community for several decades. Most studies focus on finding which method is best suited for estimating property values. One aspect that has not yet been studied scientifically is the appropriate choice of the spatial training level. The published research on AVMs usually deals with a manually defined region and fails to test the methods used on different spatial levels. The aim of our research is thus to investigate the impact of training AVM algorithms at different spatial levels in terms of valuation accuracy. We use a dataset with about 1.2 million residential properties from Germany and test four different methods, namely Ordinary Least Square, Generalized Additive Models, eXtreme Gradient Boosting and Deep Neural Network. Our results show that the right choice of spatial training level can have a major impact on the model performance, and that this impact varies across the different methods. |
| Keywords: | Automated Valuation Models; Machine Learning; Model Performance; Spatial Training Level |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_120&r=ure |
| By: | Craig Sylvera |
| Abstract: | Local elections are often contested on the grounds of public safety, but do elected officials have any power to curb crime or poor police behavior? Black mayors have particular interest in the issue because Black communities are routinely victimized by high levels of crime and fragile police-community relations. Using data on elections of first-time Black mayors, I find that police forces add more Black officers, a finding that is especially true for mayors with executive authority. Officers arrest 48 fewer potential Black offenders per 10, 000 Black residents for crimes where they have the ability to exercise discretion, a finding commensurate with the overall reduction in crime. This effect is not visible for similar white arrests. Using changes in the levels of arrests and officers induced by pivotal Black elections, I then estimate the correlation of an additional officer on race-specific arrests. An additional Black officer is related to large reductions in discretionary Black arrests, perhaps suggesting increasing the presence and visibility of Black officers may offer a solution to the “over-policing, under-policing” problem Black communities face. |
| Keywords: | mayor; race; police; crime; local government |
| JEL: | J15 K42 H76 |
| Date: | 2023–11–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:97293&r=ure |
| By: | Ben Sprung-Keyser; Sonya Porter |
| Abstract: | We examine how place shapes the production of human capital across the lifecycle. We ask: do those places that most effectively produce human capital in childhood also have local labor markets that do so in adulthood? We begin by modeling wages across place as driven by 1) location-specific wage premiums, 2) adult human capital accumulation due to local labor market exposure, and 3) childhood human capital accumulation. We construct estimates of location wage premiums using AKM style estimates of movers across US commuting zones and validate these estimates using evidence from plausibly exogenous out migration from New Orleans in response to Hurricane Katrina. Next, we examine differential earnings trajectories among movers to construct estimates of human capital accumulation due to labor market exposure. We validate these estimates using wage changes of multi-time movers. Finally, we estimate the impact of place on childhood human capital production using age variation in moves during childhood. Crucially, our estimates of location wage premiums and adult human capital accumulation allow us to construct estimates of the causal effect of place during childhood that are not confounded by correlated labor market exposure. Using these estimates, we show there is a tradeoff between those places that most effectively produce human capital in childhood and the local labor markets that do so in adulthood. We find that each 1-rank increase in earnings due to adult labor market exposure trades off with a 0.43 rank decrease in earnings due to the local childhood environment. This pattern is closely linked to city size, as adult human capital accumulation generally increases with city size, while childhood human capital accumulation falls. These divergent trajectories are associated with differences in both the physical structure of cities and the nature of social interaction therein. There is no tradeoff present in the largest cities, which provide greater exposure to high-wage earners and higher levels of local investment. Finally, we examine how these patterns are reflected in local rents. Location wage premia are heavily capitalized into rents, but the determinants of lifecycle human capital accumulation are not. |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:23-54&r=ure |
| By: | Qiulin Ke; Michael White |
| Abstract: | MEES is a measure to improve buildings’ energy efficiency. However, whether this legislation will achieve its goals is not certain. Since the implementation of MEES, limited evidence of possible impact and effectiveness has been published, especially there is no post-implementation evidence. In this paper, we investigate whether price differentials exist between the EPC-labeled office buildings and nonlabelled buildings; then we further investigate whether the premiums/discount are affected by the level of rating if the price differentials exist, especially for the ones below MEES. We use a much larger sample of office buildings across England and Wales. We use the data of the office buildings, their hedonic features, and the rents from Costar. The EPCs are from data from the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government with which the EPC assessment and rating reports are registered. The proportion of energy performance-certified buildings in our sample has increased significantly to above 50% of the total sample. 12, 514 investment office buildings with the full information at the end of 2021 are included in the study, among them, 55% of the office buildings have valid EPC ratings. This is the first study of UK commercial real estate with such a large sample to examine the effect of the EPC on commercial real estate value and provide some post-implementation evidence of the effectiveness of the MEES regulation. |
| Keywords: | EPC; Office Building; rental premium; UK |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_341&r=ure |
| By: | Yayi Wei |
| Abstract: | There is an intense debate regarding the relationship between the firm performance and the degree of geographic diversification. Yet, the results are inconsistent. Learning from the literature of international business, we divide the overall geographic diversification into intra-provincial and inter-provincial diversification to obtain a clearer insight of this relationship. In this research, we manually collected data from listed Chinese real estate firms’ annual reports over 10 years. Using both the property-based and the sold-area-based measurement of geographic diversification level, we find that a more diversified strategy would lead to better firm performance when diversifying within a specific province. Meanwhile, firms would confront a firm value reduction at the first stage and then higher firm performance when diversifying across provinces. These findings add to the extant literature on the impact of geographic diversification on firm performance and shed light on the expanding strategy for real estate firms. The future work of this study is to examine the moderating effect of the geographic distance between firms’ headquarters and properties in each city on this relationship. |
| Keywords: | Firm Performance; Inter-provincial diversification; Intra-provincial diversification |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_212&r=ure |
| By: | Aly Karam; Robert Simons; Amad Almsaodi; Samuel Owusu Agyemang |
| Abstract: | The Greater Cairo Region (GCR) is considered by Statista (2021) as the twelfth urban agglomeration in the world with a population of 21 million. According to Aqarmap, there are around 800 gated communities in the GCR with around 20, 000 listings currently for sale. A hedonic regression model is used to determine the factors affecting the listing prices of these apartments. Factors such as unit size, finish, views, floor height, community amenities, distance to highway interchanges, shopping centers, sales terms, developer reputation and proximity to poor residential areas are included. The model R2 is .63. Controlling for location and sale date, results show that list price most affected by unit size, level of finish, and cash sales terms. We believe this is the first housing regression model focusing on Cairo. |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:afr:wpaper:afres2023-025&r=ure |
| By: | Aya Nasreddine; Yasmine Essafi Zouari |
| Abstract: | In this article, we use the framework of inflation beta to test the capacity of physical residential real estate to hedge against inflation and its components, and compare it to the inflation hedge ability of various financial assets. Specifically, the housing asset is represented by the residential market in the communes of the “Grand Paris” metropolis with the different components of inflation. We start by analyzing the residential market in this area, its fundamentals, characteristics and dynamic. Then, applying the hierarchical clustering technique, we divide the Greater Paris area into five homogenous groups of communes and test its hedging ability using both correlation and regression analysis. Residential assets are confirmed to be a hedge against inflation, particularly against its unexpected component and thanks to its capital return rather than the rental return. On the other hand, the listed real estate does not provide the same hedging properties and thus cannot be considered as a substitute for this aim. |
| Keywords: | Direct housing; Grand Paris Metropolis; Hedging ability; Inflation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_261&r=ure |
| By: | Martin Kahanec; Martin Guzi |
| Abstract: | The welfare magnet hypothesis, also referred to as welfare shopping or welfare tourism, that migrants make location choices based on the provision of welfare benefits in alternative destinations, has resonated in the academic as well as public discourse on migration. This chapter summarizes theoretical models behind the welfare magnet hypothesis and reviews the empirical evidence on welfare-induced migration. The literature is inconclusive on the matter. Whereas there are theoretical arguments why welfare might matter for migration flows and several studies find a small positive association between welfare and migration, other studies find no such effects. In particular, some studies show that controlling for the endogeneity of welfare in the welfare-migration nexus reduces or eliminates the effect of welfare generosity on immigration. On the other hand, recent quasi-experimental studies demonstrate some effects of welfare on the location choices of asylees and refugees. Exploring a unique European dataset, this chapter contributes to this literature by providing some evidence that better accessibility of social assistance for immigrants is associated with larger immigrant inflows. Overall, the consensus in the literature is that the effects of welfare on migration are relatively small compared to other drivers of migration. The chapter concludes with highlighting the broader implications of the welfare magnet hypothesis and provides guidance for future research about it. |
| JEL: | H53 J15 J61 J68 |
| Date: | 2023–11–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:dpaper:65&r=ure |
| By: | Floris Blok; Angelika Brändle; Ante Busic; Franz Fuerst; Marius Zumwald |
| Abstract: | Using a hedonic regression, we examine the relationship between natural hazard exposure and residential rents using a sample of 18.339 dwellings in Switzerland. Hillslope debris flow and storm hazard are found to be associated with a significant discount across the study area. Flooding and surface runoff hazard are associated with significant discounts outside of urban areas, but results are inconsistent within urban areas. We explore some possible explanations for this finding. Results on the effect of avalanches, debris flow, landslides, hail and rockfall on rents are inconclusive. Exposure to heat is not associated with lower rents in Switzerland. Similarly, we find no evidence that increased exposure to flooding and surface runoff (in the form of living on the ground floor) is associated with lower rents relative to dwellings on higher floor levels. Furthermore, we find that the “MINERGIE” energy-efficiency rating is associated with a small premium depending on the general standard of the building. |
| Keywords: | Energy Efficiency; Hedonic Price Method; Natural hazards; Residential Rents |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_258&r=ure |
| By: | Siyan Liu; Laura D. Quinby |
| Abstract: | Homeownership is one of the largest sources of retirement wealth for most households and is promoted as a key tool for wealth accumulation. However, a long history of discrimination in the housing market has constrained the ability of Black households to accumulate housing wealth relative to their White counterparts. Consequently, Black households approaching retirement are less likely to own homes and, when they do, they see lower wealth accumulation compared to White homeowners. This brief, which is based on a recent paper, focuses on the homeowners. The goal is to determine what share of the age-55 housing wealth gap is due to disadvantage at the time of first purchase – namely, less parental assistance with the mortgage down payment – and what share is due to slower appreciation of subsequent housing wealth? To isolate the impact of these factors, the analysis compares older Black and White homeowners who seem equally able to accumulate housing wealth based on their socioeconomic characteristics, but who still ended up with different outcomes. The discussion proceeds as follows. The first section provides background on how older Black families faced disadvantage in nearly every aspect of the housing market. The second section outlines the data and methodology used to evaluate the racial housing wealth gap over the lifecycle for otherwise similar homeowners. The third section presents the results, which show that both factors – disparities at first purchase and subsequent appreciation – play an important role in explaining the gap at age 55. The final section concludes that future research should consider how structural changes in the housing market over the past 30 years might have alleviated some barriers for younger homebuyers. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:issbrf:ib2023-07&r=ure |
| By: | Paola Amoruso; Massimo Mariani; Domenico Frascati; Francesco d'Ercole |
| Abstract: | After the crisis due to the pandemic, 2022 has generally been characterized by recovery of construction sector; however there has been recorded a constant upward trend in prices of building materials. The Italian government, with the Ministerial Decree of the Ministry of Infrastructure of 12th May 2022, confirms the substantial increase in building prices in the last year in Italy. The main causes of this trend have been identified in particular geopolitical events as the war in Ukraine and the rising cost of energy. In the light of the above, various measures aimed at countering the substantial increase in the materials of construction products have been implemented through various regulatory changes. The present research aims to analyze real estate market behavior characterizing the Italian context relating it to price trend of building materials. The main practical implication of this research is to investigate the variation of house prices, distinguishing new buildings from existing ones, compared to the cost of raw materials, in order to forecast the consequence of geopolitical events on residential market. |
| Keywords: | House Prices; price building materials; real estate; Residential Market |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_104&r=ure |
| By: | Farley Ishaak |
| Abstract: | Data on commercial real estate (CRE) transactions differs in many ways from owner occupied housing transactions. CRE has low transaction numbers, is more heterogeneous and can also be traded as a company share deal. There is one more aspect in which CRE differs: it is often sold in portfolios. In this setup, multiple real estate properties are sold in one transaction. This is also called a portfolio sale. In the construction of real estate price indices, a portfolio sale is problematic, because it includes properties of various types in various locations. In the construction of price indices, portfolio sales, therefore, must be broken down into separate properties. This study examines the price index construction problems, caused by portfolio sales, provides possible solutions for handling them and assesses the usability of these options by discussing the advantages and disadvantages. This study uses official data on commercial real estate transactions from the Land Registry Office, official valuations and official information on buildings in the Netherlands. The assessment involves simulations in which one on one sales are constructed as if they were sold in portfolio sales. This allows us to assess which breakdown estimation methods deliver solid approximations for the original transaction prices. The provided solutions will provide compilers of CRE price indices handles on how to cope with portfolio sales and the simulation technique will provide them a way to assess the results. |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_293&r=ure |
| By: | Kelly Bishop; Jakob Dowling; Nicolai V. Kuminoff; Alvin Murphy |
| Abstract: | The real economic cost of homeownership depends on an intricate system of taxes and subsides that vary over time and across the United States. We incorporate the key features of this system into a framework for measuring the annual user-cost of housing and we use it to document how housing costs and subsidies varied over time, across space, and with household demographics in 2016-2017. Then we examine how the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 subsequently reduced subsidies and increased the relative cost of housing. We report how these changes varied by geography, homeownership, race, and voting behavior. |
| JEL: | H2 R2 R3 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31824&r=ure |
| By: | Hendrik Jenett |
| Abstract: | This study analyses the time-varying composition of real estate values by using an artificial neural network approach to identify whether and how certain indicators’ impacts on property values fluctuate over time. Therefore, cross-sectional property and macroeconomic data from the United States is applied, spanning a period from 1999 to 2021. In times of normal economic activity, property values are made up of two-thirds of physical attributes and one-third of the macroeconomic environment. During crises periods and times of high uncertainty, like the Global Financial Crisis, the share of the economies impact increases by roughly 5%, meaning that sudden economic changes have a higher impact on property values during crises periods versus normal times. However, these changes in the composition of real estate values varies even from one crisis to another, which confirms the dynamic relationship between the US macroeconomy and the housing market. Moreover, this study provides evidence that neural networks are capable of detecting non-linearities in property values especially during times of financial volatility. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Neural Network; Explainable Artificial Intelligence; Macroeconomy; Valuation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_183&r=ure |
| By: | Martijn Dröes; Marc Francke; Yumei Wang |
| Abstract: | Unlike many other major asset classes, when buying a physical asset like real estate, the legal date of the transfer of ownership is typically somewhere after the date of purchase. Using residential real estate as an example, we hypothesize that this period, the time-to-close, has a positive impact on transactions prices as a seller wants to be compensated by the buyer for the expected losses in terms of foregone house price appreciation, interest payments of a bridge loan, and any short-term rental costs over the time-to-close period. We show corroborative empirical evidence using a combination of administrative and realtor data from the Netherlands. Our results imply that the time-to-close is a fundamental part of the transaction process of physical assets and, as such, plays an important role in the price determination of such assets. |
| Keywords: | legal date of transfer of ownership, real estate, asset price of physical assets, seemingly unrelated regression |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_99&r=ure |
| By: | Fan, Ying (Department of Building and Real Estate, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University); Fu, Yuqi (Department of Construction Management, Tsinghua University); Yang, Zan (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology); Chen, Ming (Department of Building and Real Estate, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study consumer search in a housing market subject to objective frictions induced by intermediaries and psychological frictions intrinsic to tenants themselves. Using rental data from a leading real estate brokerage company during 2016 and 2018, we find a unimodal distribution of objective search frictions and a bimodal distribution of psychological search frictions revealed by tenants’ search behaviors. This bimodal distribution originates from divergent search strategies of tenants with different search criteria. Furthermore, psychological search frictions explain the deviation between a tenant’s actual choice and stated preference, and enhance the degree of overpay/mark-up in the deal. These effects of psychological frictions led by divergent search strategies hold when we consider the expertise/incentive of agents and the rigidity/opportunity cost of tenants’ search. Aggregately, psychological search frictions result in a dispersed and asymmetric distribution of rent residuals. |
| Keywords: | Search strategy: Friction; Rental Market; China |
| JEL: | D83 D91 R30 |
| Date: | 2023–11–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:kthrec:2023_011&r=ure |
| By: | Tony ShunTe Yuo; Chantalle Elisabeth Rietdijk; Yu-An Yang |
| Abstract: | In recent years, climate change has caused severe impacts on various countries and exacerbated the impact of natural disasters on human settlements. Due to Taiwan's high risk of multiple natural disasters and complex terrain changes, the impact and damage of disasters it faces are more severe than most countries. This makes Taiwan a suitable research site to observe and discuss the impact of natural disasters on human settlements. Research on natural disaster risk has long focused on the impact of a single disaster. However, the impact of disasters is often multiple and related to the vulnerability of the regional environment. In this case, the assessment of terrain is critical. On the premise of natural disaster prevention, the livable environment and areas not suitable for development should be defined first. Through the integration of topography and natural disasters, this study uses a geographic information system to explore the relationship between Taiwan's livable environment, unsuitable development areas, and the current population distribution and agglomeration; By contrasting the spatial distribution of disasters such as landslides, flooding, and land subsidence, we explore how the diversity of natural disasters directly affects the living environment and indirectly causes fluctuations in housing prices. |
| Keywords: | Disaster prevention; housing market; Livable environment; Multi-hazard risk |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_145&r=ure |
| By: | Kramon, Eric; Hamory, Joan; Baird, Sarah; Miguel, Edward |
| Abstract: | The impact of urban migration on ethnic politics is the subject of long-standing debate. “First-generation” modernization theories predict that urban migration should reduce ethnic identification and increase trust between groups. “Second-generation” modernization perspectives argue the opposite: Urban migration may amplify ethnic identification and reduce trust. We test these competing expectations with a three-wave panel survey following more than 8, 000 Kenyans over a 15-year period, providing novel evidence on the impact of urban migration. Using individual fixed effects regressions, we show that urban migration leads to reductions in ethnic identification; ethnicity's importance to the individual diminishes after migrating. Yet urban migration also reduces trust between ethnic groups, and trust in people generally. Urban migrants become less attached to their ethnicity but more suspicious. The results advance the literature on urbanization and politics and have implications for the potential consequences of ongoing urbanization processes around the world. |
| Keywords: | Human Society, Demography, Reduced Inequalities, Applied Economics, Political Science, Political Science & Public Administration, Applied economics, Policy and administration, Political science |
| Date: | 2022–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt7ws369zg&r=ure |
| By: | Michael White; Alla Koblyakova |
| Abstract: | The post financial crisis tightening of mortgage conditions and changes in mortgage market regulation are the focus of this paper, considering variation across both UK regions and household types. The methodological approach employs a double hurdle model. A truncated regression and its empirical specification seek to reflect the presence of credit constraints, accounting for significant changes in financial regulatory regime. The econometric focus of the paper is the second hurdle (the demand for mortgage debt) in the double hurdle model, and the impact of mortgage type on this hurdle. Models employ Understanding Society Survey (USS) Data, covering newly originated mortgages for the period 2001-2018. The paper finds that since 2008 the North of England, Yorkshire, East Midlands, Wales, and Northern Ireland experience issues with access to both variable and fixed rate mortgage funds, while Scotland and the West Midlands had limited access to fixed rate mortgage credits. First-time buyers continue to be constrained by mortgage credit funds. Furthermore, we consider lenders’ profitability motives, constraining the supply of fixed rate funds for liquidity constrained (low income) households. Policy implications of this research include awareness of potential asymmetric responses to changing lending conditions within the mortgage market across regions which may assist in designing improved financial regulatory measures and housing affordability programs. |
| Keywords: | Credit Constraints; Double Hurdle Model; Mortgage Demand |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_287&r=ure |
| By: | Faranani Gethe; Prisca Simbanegavi |
| Abstract: | The issue of urban decay is a common challenge experienced globally, characterised by the deterioration of buildings, declining economic activity, and increasing crime and unemployment rates. Urban regeneration policies have been introduced to revitalise infrastructure, housing, and economic activities while reducing unemployment and crime. However, such policies often raise concerns about gentrification, which may lead to the displacement of low-income residents from regenerated areas. This paper aims to develop a conceptual framework that can mitigate the negative effects of gentrification resulting from urban regeneration. A systematic literature review is employed to propose the conceptual framework, which draws from sociological institutionalism and investment theories to reduce gentrification effects by engaging all stakeholders. The context of Johannesburg, South Africa is particularly important in guiding future urban regeneration policies and practices to ensure equitable distribution of regeneration benefits among all community members. |
| Keywords: | Gentrification; Investment theories; Urban decay; Urban Regeneration |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_278&r=ure |
| By: | Massimo Biasin; Andrea Delle Foglie; Emanuela Giacomini |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the risk-adjusted performance contribution of ESG REITs and real estate companies from a portfolio management perspective by comparing the diversification benefit of investing in conventional real estate indexes compared to ESG real estate indexes. Using a sample of European REITs and real estate companies from January 2006 to September 2022, we construct a set of novel ESG real estate indexes and shed light on the effect of ESG real estate investments in the portfolio risk-adjusted performance, testing three different models. The results suggest that the performance of portfolios using different strategies and levels of ESG screening in the real estate asset class varied, with the portfolio with the most stringent ESG requirements for real estate having the highest levels of volatility and return and the real estate portfolios with environmental screening having the best risk-adjusted performance. However, a socially responsible real estate portfolio would produce valuable positive externalities as real estate drives almost 40% of global emissions. |
| Keywords: | asset allocation; Esg; real estate companies; REITs |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_72&r=ure |
| By: | Melanie Zhang; Anupam Nanda |
| Abstract: | This study examines international real estate investors’ strategy choices and the implications for the commercial real estate (CRE) market. The empirical work adopts a network analysis framework to quantify the market connections of the institutional investors and their influences, with a two-stage endogenous binary model employed to address foreign investors’ incentives to choose strategic partnerships and strengthen the bargaining power in the host market. We first show network patterns and dynamics. We also highlight the impact of network formation on transaction pricing. The findings from selected CRE markets in England indicate that investors with broker representation, foreign investors, and those working with external management partners achieve pricing premia in property purchases. The local experience accumulated from past transactions strengthens bargaining power. Compared to London and non-London markets, it also looks at how the institutional environment might affect the prices of goods and services in both places. |
| Keywords: | commercial real estate; international investor; Network Analysis |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_89&r=ure |
| By: | Martin Schnauss; Patrick Spieler |
| Abstract: | Holistic real estate strategies have to fulfill different interests and demands. Not only do qualitative and quantitative goals have to be reconciled, but also conflicting goals have to be resolved. This paper investigates how to create a real estate rating that captures the dynamic developments of real estate over its life cycle. A proprietary model is presented that is based on a dynamically evolving utility analysis and takes into account both changes in condition and the changing requirements of user groups. This dynamic model for a real estate rating therefore not only offers the possibility of depicting future developments of a property, but also has the potential to derive correspondingly comprehensible and needs-based real estate strategies. A dynamized utility analysis, especially in combination with a system dynamic modeling, offers the potential to develop needs-based real estate strategies over the entire life cycle of real estate. The developed model is applied to a simulation and evaluated by experts from the real estate industry. As a result, a needs-based real estate strategy is derived. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic; Rating; real estate; Simulation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_92&r=ure |
| By: | Bowen Yan |
| Abstract: | Environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) is extensively researched in the economic sector, but there is a gap in ESG literature in the real estate sector. This paper examines how ESG factors affect the London office market from the perspectives of occupiers and investors. Using a quantitative approach, the paper analyzes the preference of tenants to lease green across different industries, the correlation between a company's ESG rating and its occupancy cost in the London office market, the impact of ESG performance on its ability to attract and retain tenants in the London office market, and the extent to which ESG considerations affect rental pricing in the London office market. Preliminary results of the study indicate that ESG ratings are positively correlated with occupancy costs, that office buildings with higher BREEAM ratings generate more rental premiums and that tenants in specific sectors are more willing to pay a green premium. The study's adoption of stakeholder theory provides a broader perspective on the role of the London office market in society and emphasizes the importance of creating value for all stakeholders. The paper provides evidence to demonstrate the significance of ESG considerations in the London office market. The findings have important implications for real estate practitioners, investors, and policymakers interested in sustainable and socially responsible real estate practices. |
| Keywords: | CSR; Esg; London office market; Sustainable Real Estate |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_169&r=ure |
| By: | Bottasso, Anna (University of Genoa); Conti, Maurizio (University of Genoa); Ferrara, Antonella Rita (University of Calabria); Robbiano, Simone (University of Eastern Piedmont) |
| Abstract: | The focus of this study is to assess the causal impact of the connection of a local area to a high-speed rail network (HSR) on firms' total factor productivity (TFP). The quasi-random location of the HSR station in the Italian city of Reggio Emilia is exploited in a Difference-in Differences (DiD) research design applied to a large sample of firms, observed over the period 2010-2018. The results suggest that the opening of the HSR station improved treated firms' TFP of about 5%; in particular, such effect is larger for firms closer to the HSR station and slightly increases over the sample period. We also find that the impact of the connection to the HSR station is heterogeneous across industries and depends on firms' size and past productivity. Overall results are robust to a large number of sensitivity checks and falsification tests. |
| Keywords: | transport infrastructure, Difference-in-Differences, total factor productivity |
| JEL: | C50 D24 L92 R30 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16572&r=ure |
| By: | Yoann Morin; Martin Regnaud; Marie Breuille; Julie Le Gallo |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the impact of the rent control regulation implemented by the city of Paris since July 2019 on the rental market. We take advantage of the mass of data available in real time on SeLoger platform with the ads published by professional realtors, with a database of 422, 874 observations from January 1, 2018, to July 31, 2022. We apply a difference- in-differences model, where control units are located in eight major French cities in which the rental market is particularly tense but not regulated during the period of analysis. We show that the rent control policy decreased rents by 3.2% in Paris on average but that the policy is heterogeneous depending on dwelling characteristics. In particular, we find that small apartments are more affected by the policy than others. |
| Keywords: | Difference in differences; Paris; Rent Control; Rental market |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_225&r=ure |
| By: | Zhenyu Su; Paloma Taltavull de La Paz |
| Abstract: | This study examines the daily time series data of the short-term rental market, including Airbnb room bookings, rental supply, and asking rents, from 2015 to 2022 in 16 Asia-Pacific cities. The analysis employs a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach to investigate the causal relationships among the variables and to estimate the short-run and long-run dynamics of the market. The study reveals that the short-term rental market exhibits a high degree of volatility, with considerable fluctuations in rental supply and asking rents across the cities and over time. Furthermore, the study shows that Airbnb bookings have a significant impact on rental supply and asking rents, indicating the importance of the platform in the market. The findings also suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a substantial effect on the short-term rental market, with reduced bookings, supply, and rents during periods of strict pandemic control measures. The study provides insights into the dynamics of the short-term rental market in the Asia-Pacific region over an extended period, highlighting the importance of considering both short-term and long-term factors, including pandemic-related effects. |
| Keywords: | Airbnb; Asia-Parcific Cities; rent cycles; Short-term rental market |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_214&r=ure |
| By: | Anupam Nanda; Sotirios Thanos; Eero Valtonen |
| Abstract: | Over the years, various forms of developer obligations have been considered in English planning and development policies. The most recent major addition to the developer applications was the Community Infrastructure Levy, which has been available for local planning authorities since 2010. The levy is a non-negotiable developer obligation that a local planning authority can, but does not have to, adopt. The levy is used in combination with negotiable developer obligations, which have a scaled-back scope after the adoption of the levy. Although there is a vast amount of literature focusing on developer obligations, the introduction of new developer obligations within the existing set of obligations has been studied much less. Our paper aims to fill this gap by studying the factors affecting the adoption likelihood of the community infrastructure levy as well as its impact on the housing supply. Our study can guide decision-makers regarding the design of the developer obligations framework. They also offer valuable insight into how new instruments will work within the existing developer obligations framework. |
| Keywords: | Community Infrastructure Levy; Developer Obligations; Housing Supply |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_294&r=ure |
| By: | K. Pun Winichakul; Ning Zhang |
| Abstract: | To what extent have immigrants contributed to the growth of the United States arts sector? In this paper, we explore the impact of immigration during the Age of Mass Migration on the development of the arts in the U.S. over the past century. In the short run, our results suggest that immigration helped produce greater numbers of native artists. Over a century later, the bene fits to the arts persist. Counties with greater historical immigration house more arts businesses and nonprofit organizations that generate more revenue, employ a larger proportion of the community, and earn more federal arts grants. When considering potential mechanisms, our analysis suggests that greater interaction between the aggregate immigrant population and natives led to increased exposure to new arts experiences and ideas, creating arts markets that persisted in the long run. This channel is further supported by positive links between the presence of immigrants from certain countries of origin and the growth of art forms popular in those countries, and evidence of long-run benefits to the arts that cannot be attributed to higher income in a causal mediation analysis. Altogether, our results highlight the important role that immigrants played in the development of the arts in America. |
| Date: | 2022–12–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:993&r=ure |
| By: | Kenechi Ifeanacho; Nonso Ewurum; Njideka Aguome |
| Abstract: | Housing is one of the three basic needs of man alongside food and clothing. Housing is globally recognized as a fundamental human right. Housing has a positive impact on man’s welfare, health, efficiency, social behavior, satisfaction, and employment opportunities etc. Man’s access to housing can be frustrated by discrimination, and this discrimination occurs on various grounds. This study reviewed extant literatures on housing discrimination with the aim of revealing key findings, and gaps in literatures so as to set up future research agenda. The study made use of literatures extracted from Google scholar. . This study found that the housing discrimination occurs along the line of gender, race, ethnicity, religion, language, age, marital status, disabilities, income level, occupation, immigration status, family size, sexual orientation, nationality, color of skin, gender identity, victims of domestic violence, and ex-offenders. Most studies on housing discrimination has been carried out in United States, Germany, and Canada. This study found that there is paucity of study on housing discrimination in Nigeria, and there is need to fill this gap in literature. |
| Keywords: | housing; Housing Discrimination; housing market; Rental Housing |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_186&r=ure |
| By: | Wilhelm Breuer; Jonas Englert |
| Abstract: | Institutional investors, such as insurance companies and funds, can increase the risk-adjusted return of their real estate portfolio by directly or indirectly granting real estate loans. This is the central finding of our study. Real estate loans, also known as real estate private debt (REPD), which are not issued through bonds but are granted directly by banks and institutional investors, are an ideal addition to a real estate portfolio, according to the study. Contrary to its relevance, this topic has received little attention in the literature so far, so that there are currently no comparable studies. Within the scope of the work, the diversification potentials that can be achieved in this way were examined. For the US market, the Giliberto Levy Commercial Mortgage Performance Index (GLCMPI) provides publicly accessible data for an analysis of the performance of REPD. The "NCREIF Property Index" (NPI) was used as a benchmark for the property portfolio to be diversified. Portfolio theory formed the theoretical foundation of the study. The indices were evaluated over the largest possible observation period from 1978 – 2021. |
| Keywords: | Diversification; Investment Management; Real Estate Private Debt; Sharp Ratio |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_234&r=ure |
| By: | Fernanda Antunes |
| Abstract: | Flexible workspace providers are substantial occupiers of commercial real estate in the UK that usually lease large proportions of a building over a significant period. The covenant strength of these tenants is not as straightforward as blue-chip companies. While providers offer diversity to a building and an additional amenity to other existing tenants, their covenant strength might not be as compelling as their peers given that they depend on volatile revenue streams obtained from subletting the space through a membership scheme. The covenant strength impacts default probabilities during the lease and is a dynamic that is factored into the risk premium component of the capitalisation rate. In the grey literature, there is some evidence that the share flexible workspace providers occupy in a building can drive capitalisation rates up or down, reflecting the risk of this tenancy. Therefore, the valuation of a freehold that houses flexible workspace providers as tenants is not uncomplicated and the yields applied to capitalise the rental income need to be properly considered. This research analyses transaction information from CoStar to investigate the impact of flexible workspace tenancy on capitalisation rates in the London market. Preliminary findings suggest that office buildings with less than 40% of their total net internal area occupied by flexible workspace providers produce little to no loss in value. |
| Keywords: | Capitalisation rates; Covenant strength; Flexible workspace; Valuation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_160&r=ure |
| By: | Göksu Sabuncuolu; Kerem Yavuz Arslanli |
| Abstract: | "This paper discusses new developments based on blockchain in real estate development and proposes that the integration of the methods used in Turkey into the blockchain will contribute to industry development, especially to the division of large-scale lands into smaller digital units. The real estate ecosystem, which is one of the largest sectors in the world, will be made more liquid and accessible by changing traditional methods used to develop real estate with establishing new links for digitization which is called tokenization. Concepts such as land trading, deed registration, and property rights, will be recorded in a distributed ledger based on blockchain technology to ensure faster and more reliable transaction integrity. For small investors, expensive property that seems impossible to buy will be tokenized into the portfolio of dozens of different investors, accelerating the sector’s growth. This study covers the general characteristics of blockchain technology the integration of tokenization into land development, and the digitization effects of land development in the real estate sector, starting with the sectors in which this technology is used. The research will create a model that covers regulation, blockchain-based smart contracts, security token offerings, and the financial part of crowdfunding." |
| Keywords: | Crowdfunding; Real Estate, Blockchain; Security Token Offerings; Tokenization, |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_242&r=ure |
| By: | Luyi Qiu |
| Abstract: | Coordination development across various subsystems, particularly economic, social, cultural, and human resources subsystems, is a key aspect of urban sustainability that has a direct impact on the quality of urbanization. Hangzhou Metropolitan Circle composing Hangzhou, Huzhou, Jiaxing, Shaoxing, was the first metropolitan circle approved by National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) as a demonstration of economic transformation. To evaluate the coupling degree of the four cities and to analyze the coordinative development in the three systems (Digital Economy System, Regional Innovation System, and Talent Employment System), panel data of these four cities during the period 2015-2022 were collected. The development level of these three systems were evaluated using standard deviation and comprehensive development index evaluation. The results are as follows: (1) the coupling coordination degree of the four cities in Hangzhou Metropolitan Circle has significant regional differences, with Hangzhou being a leader while Huzhou, Jiaxing, Shaoxing have shown steady but slow progress in the coupling development of the three systems; and (2) the development of digital economy and talent employment are the breakthrough points for construction in Huzhou, Jiaxing, Shaoxing. Related suggestions are made based on the coupling coordination results of the Hangzhou Metropolitan Circle. |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2310.19008&r=ure |
| By: | Manuel T. Valdés; Mar C. Espadafor; Risto Conte Keivabu (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | -In late 2018, the government of Madrid instituted a low emission zone (LEZ) in the central district of the city, aiming primarily to alleviate traffic-related emissions and enhance air quality. Extensive research has documented the adverse effects of air pollution on academic performance. Consequently, the success of Madrid’s LEZ in reducing traffic-related emissions could potentially translate into improved performance among students schooled in the designated area. Through a difference-in-differences design, we demonstrate the policy's effectiveness in improving air quality during the four years following its implementation. Subsequently, we show a noteworthy increase of 0.17 standard deviations in the average EvAU scores (high-stakes examinations for university admittance) of high schools within the LEZ, a crucial advantage for gaining entry into the most competitive university programs. Importantly, our findings reveal positive spillover effects in the surroundings of the LEZ area and a larger effect the longer and earlier the exposure to cleaner air. In sum, our study offers compelling empirical evidence of the beneficial educational impacts resulting from the implementation of a low emission zone successful in improving air quality. |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-048&r=ure |
| By: | Rasmus Bøgh Holmen (Institute of Transport Economics - UiO - University of Oslo) |
| Abstract: | Spatial proximity to other economic activities – occasionally labeled as ‘market access' and ‘economic density' – is associated with good economic performance. How the impulses from economic activities diminish over space is known as ‘agglomeration decay' or ‘distance decay'. Although market access functions and the associated agglomeration decay constitute an important topic within spatial economic research, the phenomenon is seldom studies in a rural setting or addressed by non-linear estimation techniques. In this paper, we estimate the market access function in the relatively rural regions of Southern parts of Norway. We approximate market access in the national road network by alternative market access functions with power and exponential distance decay, applying ordinary non-linear least squares (NLS) and non-linear mixed effects (NLME). We apply labor productivity as the outcome variable, employment and population as alternative measures for potential market connections and traveling time as distance measure. In the regression, we control for capital intensity, industry structure and annual growth trend, as well as mixed effect in case of the NLME model. Compared to previous findings in the literature, we find evidence of relative sharp agglomeration decay in a rural setting, involving power and exponential distance decay parameters of about 2.3 and 0.07 respectively. Comparisons of the log likelihood from the estimation of market access functions suggest that exponential distance decay involve a slightly better fit than power distance decay. In addition, employment involves slightly more explanatory power than population as a measure for potential market connections. |
| Keywords: | Urban economics, Rural economics, Productivity, Wider economic impacts, Market access, road constructions, agglomeration decay, Distance decay |
| Date: | 2022–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04242899&r=ure |
| By: | Joise, Topu; Goenka, Narsimha; Wangyel, Sangay; Shaturaev, Jakhongir |
| Abstract: | Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) have emerged as a transformative force revolutionizing mobility and transportation trends in Asia. This conceptual paper explores the current state of transportation infrastructure, traffic congestion, and environmental concerns in the region. Additionally, it analyzes the impact of ITS in enhancing efficiency, safety, sustainability, and accessibility. The paper investigates the challenges hindering widespread ITS adoption and proposes strategies to overcome these barriers. Through case studies from various Asian countries, it highlights successful implementation and identifies policy implications. The paper concludes by emphasizing the crucial role of government policies, public-private partnerships, and technological innovations in shaping the future of transportation systems in Asia. |
| Keywords: | Intelligent Transportation Systems; Mobility; Transportation trends; Asia; Transportation infrastructure; Traffic congestion |
| JEL: | H4 R40 R41 R49 |
| Date: | 2023–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118994&r=ure |
| By: | Jonathan Wood; Sotirios Thanos; Anupam Nanda |
| Abstract: | Alcohol outlets are ubiquitous in UK urban centres and play a significant role both in the development of the built environment and in how people interact with urban spaces. There is a well established literature focusing on the health and social outcomes of the density and distribution of alcohol outlet. However, there is a clear research gap in examining how socioeconomic and urban characteristics impact the density and distribution of alcohol outlets. Factors relevant to the study of the density and distribution of the alcohol outlet industry are diverse but can be fitted into two main categories: variations in the rate of change in alcohol outlets densities; and variations in the change in market share between alcohol outlet typologies. This research takes a longitudinal approach applying panel count regression analysis techniques to model adaptations in the alcohol market across two UK cities, Manchester and Nottingham. Manchester and Nottingham make representative study areas for the UK context, with wide variation in urban density and socioeconomic characteristics. A novel dataset is employed that contains spatio-temporal counts of alcohol outlets across the study areas for the years 2002 to 2020. A high specificity of alcohol outlet characteristics allows for the creation of niche outlet typologies, allowing for the granular analysis of the wide range of sub-markets reflecting the market heterogeneity. |
| Keywords: | Alcohol Outlets; Location Patterns |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_309&r=ure |
| By: | Juan Huang; Weerachart Kilenthong |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the China Household Income Project 2018 dataset to estimate returns to education for various Hukou-migration subgroups. We overcome the endogeneity problem of years of schooling using an instrument based on the Great Expansion of Higher Education policy. Our results indicate that the highest returns are for urban native workers (27.4%), followed by urban Hukou-converted (25.0%) and rural native workers (14.7%). In contrast, the returns to education for rural-urban migrant workers are insignificant. Further analyses suggest that Hukou conversion significantly increased the returns to education for rural-origin people by enabling them access to better job opportunities. |
| Keywords: | returns to education; Hukou system; migration; China |
| JEL: | I24 I26 J15 J61 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:210&r=ure |
| By: | Fanchao Liao; Jaap Vleugel; Gustav B\"osehans; Dilum Dissanayake; Neil Thorpe; Margaret Bell; Bart van Arem; Gon\c{c}alo Homem de Almeida Correia |
| Abstract: | Electric mobility hubs (eHUBS) are locations where multiple shared electric modes including electric cars and e-bikes are available. To assess their potential to reduce private car use, it is important to investigate to what extent people would switch to eHUBS modes after their introduction. Moreover, people may adapt their behaviour differently depending on their current travel mode. This study is based on stated preference data collected in Amsterdam. We analysed the data using mixed logit models. We found users of different modes not only have a varied general preference for different shared modes, but also have different sensitivity for attributes such as travel time and cost. Compared to car users, public transport users are more likely to switch towards the eHUBS modes. People who bike and walk have strong inertia, but the percentage choosing eHUBS modes doubles when the trip distance is longer (5 or 10 km). |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2310.19036&r=ure |
| By: | Michael Levere; Jeffrey Hemmeter; David Wittenburg |
| Abstract: | We explore the extent to which schools affect children’s applications to Supplemental Security Income (SSI). Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, schools varied in the extent to which they offered in-person learning during the 2020-21 school year. We use this variation to better understand the way schools, potentially through teacher referrals and informal networks, influence applications to SSI. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:crrwps:wp2023-05&r=ure |
| By: | Monwabisi Mdleleni; Kolawole Ijasan |
| Abstract: | Cell phone tower deployment is globally met with public concerns relating to the aesthetically unappealing nature, health risks associated the electromagnetic field (EMF) emissions from these devices, and as a result, the negative effect of these devices on property values for properties in close proximity to these devices. As such, this study analyses the impact of cell phone towers on the house prices. Using a GIS tool to determine distance of cell phone towers to the houses, the study employed a hedonic price model using sales prices of residential transactions between 2012 and 2022 for Randpark Ridge, Johannesburg, to determine the actual impact of proximity to cell phone towers on house prices. In the Johannesburg context, the results of the study found that were no statistically significant findings that suggest there is a correlation between the presence of cell phone towers in close proximity and house prices. The findings of the study were contrary to the findings of the majority of similar studies, where cell phone towers were found to have a negative impact on the price of houses. Due to the limitations of line-of-sight confirmation, budget constraints and time limitations, there is difficulty in using the findings for generalizability. |
| Keywords: | cell phone towers; Hedonic price model; House Prices; Property Values |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_275&r=ure |
| By: | Dominik Kowitzke |
| Abstract: | I conduct an empirical analysis of household living space consumption based on microdata from the German Socio-Economic Panel. At the stage of the family life-cycle when children launch from home, frequently, no adjustment of living space takes place by the parental household, the then so-called empty nest household. In many cases, this doesn't happen due to market frictions like political interventions which lower the mobility of elderly households. I claim that a better utilization of this space would improve housing markets suffering from a lack of dwellings. Supplying this space to the market can substitute new dwelling construction and prevent related environmental harm. Thus, I quantify the total amount of excess living space in Germany related to this life-cycle effect using a multiply linear regression model to approximate the potential of living space creation by comparing empty nest households to a control group. On average, empty nest households consume 11 m2 more than the control group. Further, the application of a fixed effects model shows that if empty nest households move, they downsize significantly by about 16 m2. Moreover, I estimate environmental effects related to the substitution of housing construction. In short, my results show that there is a significant amount of vacant space in so-called empty nest households. Thus, measurements which support older households with freeing-up living space would ease tight housing markets and prevent environmental harm. |
| Keywords: | Empty nests; Living space; Overhousing |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_259&r=ure |
| By: | Antonin Bergeaud; Cyril Verluise |
| Abstract: | Innovation is an important driver of potential growth but quantitative evidence on the dynamics of innovative activities in the long-run are hardly documented due to the lack of data, especially in Europe. In this paper, we introduce PatentCity, a novel dataset on the location and nature of patentees from the 19th century using information derived from an automated extraction of relevant information from patent documents published by the German, French, British and US Intellectual Property offices. This dataset has been constructed with the view of facilitating the exploration of the geography of innovation and includes additional information on citizenship and occupation of inventors |
| Keywords: | history of innovation, patent, text as data |
| Date: | 2022–04–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:poidwp:033&r=ure |
| By: | Alexander Carlo; Nils Kok; Piet Eichholtz |
| Abstract: | Pension funds worldwide have experienced increasing allocations to alternative assets, the most important being real estate. The question is, however, what the drivers of that real estate allocation are. We exploit the global pension fund database of CEM to shed light on this issue. We find that pension funds’ strategic allocation (net of performance effects) to real estate is the result of the historical performance of the asset class compared to other asset classes and that pension funds adjust their actual allocation percentage quickly to the strategic allocation: we find allocation reductions in years after high returns, and increases in years after low returns. Market risk attitudes – measured by the credit risk spread and the term spread – do not play a role in the overall real estate allocations. Last, we observe that while pension funds’ allocation to real estate has grown over time, this is not the case after we adjust for capital appreciation: In terms of physical real estate assets, pension funds’ portfolios are generally shrinking, with the US leading the way. |
| Keywords: | Capital flows; Pension funds; real estate |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_74&r=ure |
| By: | Linde Kattenberg; Nils Kok; Piet Eichholtz |
| Abstract: | Energy efficiency in the housing market is considered an important tool to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions, as well as to enhance national energy independence and protect consumer balance sheets. Home insulation plays an important role in improving the energy efficiency of a home. However, the impact of insulation measures on actual gas consumption is typically based on engineering predictions, and the efficacy of insulation measures is subject to debate. This study exploits a unique home insulation sample, combined with detailed household data on actual gas consumption before and after these interventions, and information on the socio-economic characteristics of occupants. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we document that home insulation reduces gas consumption by about 20%, on average, both for owner-occupied and rental homes. For the latter, the treatment is plausibly exogenous. We find no evidence of a temporal rebound effect: the reduction in gas consumption is consistent up to ten years after the intervention. At 2022 gas prices, the average treatment effect translates into an €866 reduction in the annual gas bill, and an average rate of return of 41.6% on the initial investment. |
| Keywords: | Energy Efficiency; insulation; Residential |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_57&r=ure |
| By: | Juan M. Sanchez; Olivia Wilkinson |
| Abstract: | Sixteen percent of individuals with mortgages used forbearance between April 2020 and December 2021. For those requesting mortgage relief, how long did forbearance last? |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; mortgage forbearance |
| Date: | 2022–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:94322&r=ure |
| By: | Ann-Marie Sommerfeld (Friedrich Schiller University Jena) |
| Abstract: | Exploiting the age-at-enrollment policies in 16 German states as exogenous source of variation, I examine whether the schooling of the oldest child in a migrant household affects parents' integration. My analysis links administrative records on primary school enrollment cutoff dates with micro data from the German Socioeconomic Panel (GSOEP). Using a regression discontinuity design around the school enrollment cutoff and an instrumental variable approach I show that children's schooling improves the integration of parents along several dimensions, such as labor market outcomes, financial worries, and German language skills. Labor market outcomes are most positively affected for mothers. Additional analysis of underlying mechanisms suggests that results are driven by gains in disposable time and exposure to the German language and culture. |
| Keywords: | international migration, assimilation, integration, education, schooling, family, regression discontinuity, instrumental variables |
| JEL: | F22 I24 I26 J16 |
| Date: | 2023–11–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2023-018&r=ure |
| By: | Stephen V. Burks (University of Minnesota Morris); Arne Kildegaard (University of Minnesota Morris); Jason W. Miller (Michigan State University); Kristen Monaco (Federal Maritime Commission) |
| Abstract: | The U.S. trucking industry has been calling out a shortage of truck drivers for nearly forty years, since soon after its economic deregulation in 1980. Burks and Monaco (2019) provided evidence that the overall truck driver labor market works about as well as any blue collar labor market, and suggested persistently high driver turnover uniquely at long-distance truckload firms (central to long distance freight but employing only 20% of tractor-trailer truckers) drives the shortage perception. The American Trucking Associations (ATA) agreed with the location of the problem, but argued that a driver shortage and high turnover are distinct, and that a long-term shortage does exist. We review the evidence for a shortage and find it unconvincing. We also review empirical evidence that long-distance truckload has had persistently high-turnover since the mid-1980s. To explain this, we provide a simple model of long-distance truckload cost minimization in which there is a tradeoff between the costs of turnover and two other costs, higher pay to offset bad working conditions (compensating differentials), and running trucks out-of-route to get drivers home regularly (inefficient capital use). We show that high turnover is likely structural because it is part of the least-cost mixture. We then use our model to analyze the potential impacts of two technological changes (truck simulators and partially automated trucks), and a key policy championed by the ATA to “fix the shortage, ” interstate teenaged truckers. We show that these are likely to have results opposite to those the industry and policy makers expect. |
| Keywords: | long-distance motor carrier; driver turnover; driver shortage; truckload; less-thantruckload; costs; teenaged truck drivers; partially automated trucks; Truck Transportation |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notcdx:2023-11&r=ure |
| By: | Nandkumar Nayar; McKay Price; Ke Shen |
| Abstract: | Recent research has shown that macroeconomic uncertainty is a signifcant factor that is contemporaneously incorporated into asset returns. Therefore, it should not have a role in predicting future returns. At the same time, separate research has demonstrated that illiquidity is related to future returns. We examine the interplay between these two dynamics in a commercial real estate setting, where (il)liquidity is a defining characteristic of the asset class. Empirical tests confirm the absence of return predictability for liquid assets (publicly traded property portfolios). However, we find significant return predictability predicated on ex ante macroeconomic uncertainty when we examine assets that are not as liquid (directly held property portfolios). Our findings are robust to several refinements, including adjustments for delays in the transaction closing process to establish transaction prices in the directly held market, controls for leverage inherent in publicly traded real estate asset returns, and pro-cyclical liquidity variation in private real estate markets. |
| Keywords: | commercial real estate; Liquidity; Macroeconomic uncertainty; Price return predictability |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_29&r=ure |
| By: | Cevat Giray Aksoy; Jose Maria Barrero; Nicholas Bloom; Steven J. Davis; Mathias Dolls; Pablo Zarate |
| Abstract: | The pandemic triggered a large, lasting shift to work from home (WFH). To study this shift, we survey full-time workers who finished primary school in 27 countries as of mid-2021 and early 2022. Our cross-country comparisons control for age, gender, education, and industry and treat the U.S. mean as the baseline. We find, first, that WFH averages 1.5 days per week in our sample, ranging widely across countries. Second, employers plan an average of 0.7 WFH days per week after the pandemic, but workers want 1.7 days. Third, employees value the option to WFH 2-3 days per week at 5 percent of pay, on average, with higher valuations for women, people with children and those with longer commutes. Fourth, most employees were favorably surprised by their WFH productivity during the pandemic. Fifth, looking across individuals, employer plans for WFH levels after the pandemic rise strongly with WFH productivity surprises during the pandemic. Sixth, looking across countries, planned WFH levels rise with the cumulative stringency of government-mandated lockdowns during the pandemic. We draw on these results to explain the big shift to WFH and to consider some implications for workers, organization, cities, and the pace of innovation. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, working from home, productivity |
| Date: | 2023–05–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1920&r=ure |
| By: | François Fall; Thanh Tam Nguyen-Huu (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie) |
| Abstract: | In Hotelling's fundamental model (1929), the geographical distance and high transportation costs grant firms present in a market a certain power over local buyers in their neighborhoods. Starting from his model, this study shows that in the competition between a bank and a microfinance institution (MFI), geographical distance and transportation costs alone are no longer sufficient for attributing market power to the firms present. In fact, the introduction of psychological distanceand education level in the model alter the Hotelling's results. Psychological proximity (trust) and the educational level of the client play determinant roles in dividing the credit market between a bank and an MFI. |
| Keywords: | C72, D43, spatial competition bank microfinance market power G21 O17 C72 D43, spatial competition, bank, microfinance, market power G21, O17 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04248194&r=ure |
| By: | Antonin Bergeaud; Arthur Guillouzouic; Emeric Henry; Clement Malgouyres |
| Abstract: | Introducing a new measure of scientific proximity between private firms and public research groups and exploiting a multi-billion euro financing program of academic clusters in France, we provide causal evidence of spillovers from academic research to private sector firms. Firms in the top quartile of exposure to the funding shock increase their R&D effort by 20% compared to the bottom quartile. We exploit reports produced by funded clusters, complemented by data on labor mobility and R&D public-private partnerships, to provide evidence on the channels for these spillovers. We show that spillovers are driven by outsourcing of R&D activities by the private to the public sectors and, to a lesser extent, by labor mobility from one to the other and by informal contacts. We discuss the policy implications of these findings. |
| Keywords: | knowledge spillovers, policy instruments, technological distance |
| Date: | 2022–10–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:poidwp:041&r=ure |
| By: | Anthony J. Venables; Patricia G.Rice |
| Abstract: | Spatial variation in the productivity of different sectors is a determinant of sectoral location, with consequences for wages, rents and the cost-of-living in each area. This paper develops an analytical framework which shows how productivity advantage in a highly tradable sector translates into higher nominal wages, rents, and cost of living in an area; in contrast, high physical productivity in non-tradables may result in lower wages, rents and revenue productivity. The theory’s prediction that an area’s bias towards highly tradable activities is positively correlated with its earnings is confirmed by empirical analysis of earnings data for the ITL3 areas of GB. As suggested by the theory, two factors drive this effect. Approximately one-third is a direct result of sectoral composition – on average across GB, tradable sectors pay higher wages. The remaining two-thirds is an equilibrium effect, arising as a productivity advantage in tradables translates into higher local employment and factor prices. While our primary analysis is on recent data, we show that our approach also captures the impact of the structural change that occurred in Britain during the 1970s and 1980s on regional earnings disparities. |
| Date: | 2023–01–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:996&r=ure |
| By: | YASUI Kengo; SANO Shinpei; KUME Koichi; TSURU Kotaro |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically analyzes the relationship between graduation from single-sex high schools and individual-level educational and labor market outcomes using individual data from the “Internet Survey on Intergenerational Education and Training, and Cognitive and Non-cognitive Abilities†conducted in 2019 by the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry. First, we estimated differences in educational and labor market outcomes for single-sex school graduates compared to co-educational graduates using OLS, controlling for a comprehensive set of variables on socio-economic background, grades, and educational resources of schools in the prefecture of residence during their middle school years, and lessons and experiences during their elementary school years, as well as a private high school dummy and the level of academic achievement (college enrollment rate) of high school peers. The results showed that the probability of graduation from a prestigious university and wages were higher for males from boys' schools, while for females, wages were lower for those who graduated from girls' schools. The findings were more pronounced in the high quintile of the wage distribution for males and in the low quintile for females. However, when the percentage of single-sex high schools in the prefecture of residence at age 15 was used as an instrumental variable in the estimation, it was shown that education in girls' schools did not cause wage reductions. This suggests that at the time when the subjects of the analysis (in their late 20s to 50s at the time of the survey) were educated in high school, girls or their families, who did not value labor market outcomes in terms of wages, selected to go to girls' schools. It should be noted, though, that such a preference is not observed for women in the higher quintiles of the wage distribution. |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:23042&r=ure |
| By: | Badr Hayar; Jan Muckenhaupt; Bing Zhu |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between ESG ratings and the operational, financial and market performance of Public Real Estate Companies (PRECs). By investigating a large sample of listed real estate firms from 2015 to 2021 in 35 countries, we find a positive relationship between overhead ESG metrics (and its sub-components) and firms’ market performance. Furthermore, we observe a negative relationship between ESG-Scores and the net operating income, general and administrative costs and financial costs. Our results remain robust after correcting for selection bias. Our results suggest that firms engaged in more socially responsible practices suffer from more financial costs and thus, have lower operational and financial performance. On the other hand, the stock market appreciates any decent investment in ESG, by overvaluing the corresponding companies. |
| Keywords: | Esg; Listed Real Estate; Performance; Public Real Estate Companies |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_71&r=ure |
| By: | Bontemps, Christian; Cherbonnier, Frédéric; Magnac, Thierry |
| Abstract: | The existence of transaction taxes reduces transactions, and in the case of housing, reduces household mobility and affects the costs of downsizing in dire times. We construct and estimate an overlapping generation model in which households are heterogeneous in age and earnings, and prudential regulation and the tax system are modeled in fine detail. These housing and public policies are likely to affect markets globally, and clearing both rental and property markets is important when evaluating them. We use the institutional and data setting of France, where transactions taxes are some of the highest in Europe, and evaluate the counterfactual impact of reducing transaction taxes from 14% to 6%, similar to US levels. The impact on transactions is strong, but the impact on welfare remains limited. |
| Keywords: | Heterogenous agents; dynamic structural models; general equilibrium; housing;; transaction taxes |
| JEL: | C68 D15 D58 H31 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:128690&r=ure |
| By: | Mark Andrew; James Culley |
| Abstract: | Leaseholds are finite assets sold at a discount to its freehold value. The government intends to make it easier and cheaper for lessees to renew their lease or purchase the freehold interest. We analyse the potential financial implications of leasehold reform from changing the extended lease length and eliminating the marriage value payment beyond the distribution of a premium reduction. Lessees who extend a short lease will benefit from a premium reduction and from the increase in the extended leasehold value from a long to a very long lease. We argue that lessees’ who do not extend also benefit from the capitalisation of the premium reduction into short leasehold prices. We find that there will be regional variations in the increase in the short leasehold stock value, decreases in housing affordability and in how financial gains are distributed among different lessee types. Some of these outcomes contradict current government policy. We also find that owning a freehold share does not protect against selling at a price discount. Key words: leasehold reform, marriage value payment, capitalised leasehold prices. |
| Keywords: | Government Policy; Hedonic Modelling; Leasehold Reform; Option Pricing |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_65&r=ure |
| By: | Victor Medina-Olivares; Finn Lindgren; Raffaella Calabrese; Jonathan Crook |
| Abstract: | In credit risk analysis, survival models with fixed and time-varying covariates are widely used to predict a borrower's time-to-event. When the time-varying drivers are endogenous, modelling jointly the evolution of the survival time and the endogenous covariates is the most appropriate approach, also known as the joint model for longitudinal and survival data. In addition to the temporal component, credit risk models can be enhanced when including borrowers' geographical information by considering spatial clustering and its variation over time. We propose the Spatio-Temporal Joint Model (STJM) to capture spatial and temporal effects and their interaction. This Bayesian hierarchical joint model reckons the survival effect of unobserved heterogeneity among borrowers located in the same region at a particular time. To estimate the STJM model for large datasets, we consider the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) methodology. We apply the STJM to predict the time to full prepayment on a large dataset of 57, 258 US mortgage borrowers with more than 2.5 million observations. Empirical results indicate that including spatial effects consistently improves the performance of the joint model. However, the gains are less definitive when we additionally include spatio-temporal interactions. |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2311.04008&r=ure |
| By: | Muhammad Yusaimi Hamid; Muhammad Najib Razali; Rohaya Abdul Jalil |
| Abstract: | This abstract discusses the increasing importance of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors in the real estate industry in Asia and Malaysia, where many listed property companies have begun to adopt ESG practices. However, the effectiveness of these initiatives on company performance remains unclear. This problem statement aims to investigate the potential benefits of integrating ESG practices into the operations of listed real estate companies and to identify the specific ESG factors that are most important in driving performance. Previous studies have shown mixed results, and there is a need to investigate the specific ESG factors that are most important in driving the performance of listed real estate companies in Asia and Malaysia. While academic research has been supportive of the increased value of ESG in real estate investing, this research aims to examine major real estate challenges and topics such as climate change risk issues, energy efficiency, and decarbonization frameworks. The significance of ESG in real estate investment decision-making for real estate investors globally moving ahead has been established, notably around the topics of climate risk reduction, climate resilience, and zero-carbon initiatives. |
| Keywords: | Asian; Esg; Listed Property Companies; Literature |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_281&r=ure |
| By: | Bridget Kauma; Giordano Mion |
| Abstract: | We propose a new data resource that attempts to overcome limitations of standard firm-level datasets for the UK (like the ARD/ABS) by building on administrative data covering the population of UK firms with at least one employee. We also construct a similar dataset for France and use both datasets to: 1) Provide some highlights of the data and an overall picture of the evolution of aggregate UK and French productivity and markups: 2) Analyse the spatial distribution of productivity in both countries at a fine level of detail - 228 Travel to Work Areas (TTWAs) for the UK and 297 Zones da'emploi (ZEs) for France - while focusing on the role of economic density. Our findings suggest that differences in firm productivity across regions are magnified in the aggregate by an increasing productivity return of density along the productivity distribution. |
| Keywords: | firm-level dataset, merging, BSD, FAME, VAT, FICUS, FARE, productivity, markups, UK, France, regional disparities, density |
| Date: | 2023–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1955&r=ure |
| By: | Simon Thaler; David Koch |
| Abstract: | Assessing the condition of a property is an important part of determining its value. To assess the condition of, for example, a house, certain exterior and interior characteristics are evaluated according to a scheme in which each characteristic is weighted for the final condition classification. Since property valuation depends on the experience of the appraiser, professionals and court appraisers predominantly do the determination of a condition classification. A condition assessment can also be made from pictures and does not require an on-site visit. Therefore, this article examines the extent to which students, as a sample of the general (unexpierenced) population, evaluate the condition of single-family homes based on pictures of the exterior. We compare the evaluation by students with an evaluation by professional evaluators following a standardised scheme. In addition, we investigate how colours and distance of the photographer, among other factors, affect the condition classification assigned by students. The results of this work provide information about the extent to which lay people are able to evaluate single-family houses. We find the wisdom of the crowd comes to approx. 60% correct condition class predictions. Furthermore, the depiction of pools upwardly biases the predictions of the students sample. Colour or grey scale seems not to have an impact. |
| Keywords: | Condition Assessment |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_122&r=ure |
| By: | Olayiwola Oladiran; Steven Devaney; Abbas Muhammad |
| Abstract: | The recent accelerated growth in PropTech and real estate innovation has created enormous opportunities for investors and entrepreneurs. Data from Unissu (2022) reveals that in 2010, PropTech attracted an investment capital of approximately $900 million and by 2021, the PropTech sector attracted approximately $18 bn. As expected, PropTech investment capital flow has been uneven across world economies. A huge proportion of this capital is concentrated in North American, Western European and core Asian economies, suggesting an uneven distribution of PropTech capital across world regions and economies. Research has shown that macroeconomic, demographic, geopolitical, institutional, and legal factors influence real estate capital flow. However, the impact of these factors on PropTech capital flow has not been explored. This research, therefore, aims to explore some of the key factors that attract PropTech investors to various countries and world regions. The study uses OLS models to explore core PropTech investment pull forces and further uses machine learning algorithms to forecast future PropTech capital concentration. |
| Keywords: | Funding; Investment; macroeconomic; proptech |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_274&r=ure |
| By: | Elias Einio; Josh Feng; Xavier Jaravel |
| Abstract: | Innovators are intrinsically-motivated individuals who use ideas to create new goods and services. This raises the possibility that their social backgrounds may affect the direction of their innovative activity. Consistent with this "social push" channel, we document that innovators create products that are more likely to be purchased by customers similar to them along observable dimensions including gender, age, and socioeconomic status, both across and within detailed industries. Next, we provide causal evidence that social experience affects the direction of a person's innovative activity. Specifically, being exposed to peers from a lower-income group increases an entrepreneur's propensity to create necessity products, without affecting her rates of entrepreneurship and entrepreneurial income. We incorporate this channel into a general equilibrium model to assess its implications for cost-of-living inequality and long-run growth when there is unequal access to the innovation system. |
| Keywords: | innovators social background, social push |
| Date: | 2022–07–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:poidwp:036&r=ure |
| By: | Nandkumar Nayar; McKay Price; Ke Shen |
| Abstract: | Recent research has shown that macroeconomic uncertainty is a signifcant factor that is contemporaneously incorporated into asset returns. Therefore, it should not have a role in predicting future returns. At the same time, separate research has demonstrated that illiquidity is related to future returns. We examine the interplay between these two dynamics in a commercial real estate setting, where (il)liquidity is a defining characteristic of the asset class. Empirical tests confirm the absence of return predictability for liquid assets (publicly traded property portfolios). However, we find significant return predictability predicated on ex ante macroeconomic uncertainty when we examine assets that are not as liquid (directly held property portfolios). Our findings are robust to several refinements, including adjustments for delays in the transaction closing process to establish transaction prices in the directly held market, controls for leverage inherent in publicly traded real estate asset returns, and pro-cyclical liquidity variation in private real estate markets. |
| Keywords: | commercial real estate; Liquidity; Macroeconomic uncertainty; Price return predictability |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_23&r=ure |
| By: | Marin, Anca Monica; Glăvan, Eugen (Romanian Academy); Chiș, Alin; Corad, Bogdan |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the spatial differences in EU funds absorption among Romanian rural municipalities through the 2014-2020 programming period. The absorption capacity for EU funds is measured by the volume of spent EU funds by inhabitant, for each Romanian rural municipality. The results of the analysis highlight the importance of the territorial dimension when studying the distribution of EU funds among the rural municipalities of Romania. Affiliation with a specific development region (NUTS 2), county (NUTS 3) or a functional urban area (FUA) is used to differentiate the volume of absorbed EU funds. Levels of fiscal capacity, locality development, EU and state budget funding experience, and population dynamics in 2021 compared to those in 2014 are also used to distinguish between categories of municipalities receiving EU funds. In Romania, rural municipalities with higher levels of absorbed EU funding are, to a statistically higher extent, located in development regions in the Center, North‒West, South West and West of the country; in communes with no change, or even an increase, in population between 2021 and 2014; in the highest quartile of fiscal capacity and in communes with experience with EU funding from the preceding programming period. This article adds to the growing body of territorial evidence and can be used as a policy instrument to more closely examine the intervention tools embedded in EU funding policy. From a systemic approach, the results of the analysis are valuable for the design of integrated place-based strategies for EU, national and local level stakeholders, with the ultimate goal of improving quality of life for citizens living in rural areas. |
| Date: | 2023–01–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:vwbq2&r=ure |
| By: | Sandra M. Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses occupational trajectories of refugees from their last job in the home country to their first and current jobs in Austria and the role of co-ethnic and Austrian social networks in job search, using data from a large-scale survey of recognised refugees from Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran who have predominantly come to Austria since 2010, thereby covering the strong refugee wave of 2015 2016. The results corroborate a U-shaped pattern, with a sharp initial occupational loss followed by a rather moderate occupational recovery. Although native social networks play no role for occupational changes, co-ethnic social networks – particularly when used as a stand-alone job search strategy – prove detrimental along the entire trajectory. However, co-ethnic social networks are beneficial if used in combination with the Austrian labour market service or NGOs. Some refugees prove particularly vulnerable, such as older refugees or highly educated refugees who undergo more pronounced initial occupational downgrading, with subsequent occupational upgrading either limited or absent. |
| Keywords: | Refugees, labour market integration, occupational trajectories, social capital |
| JEL: | J15 J24 J62 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:232&r=ure |
| By: | Vivek Sharma |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a Two-Agent New Keynesian (TANK) model with collateral- constrained borrowers and a time-varying shock to loan-to-value (LTV) ratios. A temporary tightening in lending standards in this model leads to a sizable drop in macroeconomic aggregates and significant macroeconomic fluctuations. The analysis shows that effects of shocks to LTV ratios are highly non-linear and state-dependent in the sense that amplification of shocks depends crucially on steady-state LTV ratios. Shocks when LTV ratios are already high lead to effects which are substantially stronger than when the steady-state LTV ratios are comparatively lower. The results in this paper also show that permanent LTV shocks lead to permanent decline in housing prices – a 10 percentage point decline in steady-state LTV ratio from 0.95 results in more than 0.3% decline in housing prices. A novel finding in this paper is that a permanent tightening in lending standards leads to a permanent decline in wages. Additionally, other shocks such as TFP shocks, housing demand shocks and labor supply shocks also show clear state dependence and have highly persistent effects. |
| Keywords: | Loan-to-Value (LTV) Shocks, Housing Price, Macroeconomic Fluctuations |
| JEL: | E32 E44 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2023-58&r=ure |
| By: | Jane Stonehouse; Kevin Muldoon-Smith |
| Abstract: | Before the Global Pandemic, the UK office sector was already changing as businesses required flexible and agile workspace due to the changing nature of work. Compulsory lockdowns during 2020-2022 quickly accelerated these changes in the way of working - employees were able to work from home, if feasible to do so and for a time ordered to do so. Reflecting this trend, there is now an emerging emphasis on creating spaces that support value-added activities that require people to once again meet and work together. There is a considerable amount of research being published on how the office building can cater for hybrid working. However, using a case study of leading real estate employers, this research project follows the employees as they work in new work formats. The initial findings reported in this paper help to understand how people are acting and responding to this situation. The intention is that in time this will allow a framework to be created for businesses planning their workspace, organisational change, and wider academic debate. |
| Keywords: | Employee experience; Flexibility; Hybrid; workspace |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_58&r=ure |
| By: | Julia Braun |
| Abstract: | After the great turmoil of the latest financial crisis, the criticism of the regulatory frameworks became increasingly stronger. The rules that banks needed to comply with are presumed to be procyclical and unable to prevent and mitigate the extent of strong financial and economic cycles. As a result, Basel III introduced a set of macroprudential tools to overcome these regulatory shortfalls. One tool that strives to counteract the issue of procyclicality is the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB). This paper introduces a heterogeneous agent-based model that investigates the implication of the new regulatory measure. We develop a housing and a financial market where economic agents trade residential property that is financed by financial institutions. To examine the macroeconomic performance of the CCyB, we evaluate the dynamics of key stability indicators of the housing and the financial market under four different market conditions: in an undisturbed market and in times of three different structural shocks. Computational experiments reveal that the CCyB is effective in stabilizing the housing and the financial market in all market settings. But the extent of the stabilizing effect varies according to market conditions. In the shock scenarios, the CCyB performs better in dampening market fluctuations and increasing banking soundness. Although the new macroprudential tool helps to mitigate economic fluctuations and to stabilize market conditions in the aftermath of a crisis, it is not able to prevent any of the crises tested. |
| Keywords: | Agent-Based Model; Basel III; Countercyclical capital buffer; Housing market stability |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_18&r=ure |
| By: | Ming Shann Tsai; Shu Ling Chiang |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effects of investor sentiment on the price adjustment behaviors for real estate investment trust (REIT) and the stock prices by applying the threshold error correction (EC) model. We defined the regimes and estimated the endogenously threshold level by the five investor sentiment proxies: the VIX index, the VXO index, the put/call ratio, and two search volume indexes provided by Google Trends. The empirical results reveal that there are asymmetric effects of investor sentiment on the price adjustment behaviors for both the REIT and stock returns. The coefficients of price adjustment are significantly negative values under most regimes constructed by the different investor sentiment proxies. Moreover, the adjustment degree in upper regime is greater than that in lower regime. Thus, if market participants are strongly bearish or their attention level was high (i.e., in the upper regime), they will quickly adjust their portfolios in response to an economic shock. For all regimes, the efficiency of the price adjustment behavior is greater in the REIT market than in the stock market. The results also reveal the significant lead-lag relationships between the REIT and stock markets under the most regimes. |
| Keywords: | Asymmetric; Cointegration; Price Adjustments; Threshold Error Correction Model |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_167&r=ure |
| By: | Cara Hatcher |
| Abstract: | A key challenge for the UK is the current housing crisis. Part of this challenge is the funding of Social Housing Providers (SHPs) and the tensions this causes within such organisations. This paper examines this situation through the perspective of board directors within these organisations. Increasingly, SHPs are now encouraged to operate entrepreneurially with less central government funding available. Within this context, the role of the board director has become increasingly challenging due to political, social, and financial pressures. The consequence is a new turbulence between tenant and society and the mediating role of the housing board. This paper analyses the funding and social tensions of SHPs using an innovative multi-layered research methodology including, a detailed documentary analysis of practices relating to decision making capabilities, and in-depth interviews with board directors as they seek to mediate the tension between state, market and civil society via SHP board decision making. The paper concludes that SHPs need to consider adapting their provision to meet the needs of the community (civil society). These findings shed new light on the working practices of the SHP under the context of austerity and new modes of housing governance. |
| Keywords: | Decision Making; Social Housing; Social Housing Providers; Third Sector |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_41&r=ure |
| By: | Heiko Leonhard |
| Abstract: | The rise of blockchain technology has led to the creation of a new generation of virtual world projects, which have attracted a range of commercial activities. The economic potential of these virtual environments has caused an increase in the virtual land market. While there are many virtual worlds, the land in each is limited in size and ideally cannot be changed, which reduces investment hold-up issues and constraints. Thanks to publicly available open-source technology, it is now possible to easily explore these new blockchain-based virtual land markets and its price dynamics. This study provides guidance on how to adequately model virtual land price indices. The study analyzes one of the first and most relevant large-scale blockchain- based virtual worlds, Decentraland. The data set used in the study is compiled from secondary market sales from the most relevant NFT (non-fungible token) marketplace. Using information on identical virtual land parcels, the study develops a weekly repeat sales index of prices for the period between January 2019 and August 2022. The study also performs several performance tests, which show that the repeat sales method provides superior index estimates compared to using an arithmetic price average or median price, which are often used in the market for virtual land. In addition to serving as a price benchmark, a virtual land market index can be appealing for asset pricing studies, as it can be used as a proxy for an unobservable market portfolio. Therefore, research on the physical real estate market can guide any research of virtual land markets. |
| Keywords: | blockchain; Metaverse; Price Index; Repeat Sales Model |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_152&r=ure |
| By: | Aristide Houndetoungan (Department of Economics, Thema, Cy Cergy Paris Université); Asad Islam (Centre for Development Economics and Sustainability (CDES) and Department of Economics, Monash University, and J-PAL); Michael Vlassopoulos (Economics Department, Social Sciences, University of Southampton, and IZA.); Yves Zenou (Department of Economics, Monash University, CEPR, and IZA) |
| Abstract: | Social networks play an important role in various aspects of life. While extensive research has explored factors such as gender, race, and education in network formation, one dimension that has received less attention is the gender of one’s child. Children tend to form friendships with same gender peers, potentially leading their parents to interact based on their child’s gender. Focusing on households with children aged 3-5, we leverage a rich dataset from rural Bangladesh to investigate the role of children’s gender in parental network formation. We estimate an equilibrium model of network formation that considers a child’s gender alongside other socioeconomic factors. Counterfactual analyses reveal that children’s gender significantly shapes parents’ network structure. Specifically, if all children share the same gender, households would have approximately 15% more links, with a stronger effect for families having girls. Importantly, the impact of children’s gender on network structure is on par with or even surpasses that of factors such as income distribution, parental occupation, education, and age. These findings carry implications for debates surrounding coed versus single-sex schools, as well as policies that foster inter-gender social interactions among children. |
| Keywords: | Social networks, early childhood, network formation, gender |
| JEL: | C57 D85 J16 O12 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2023-23&r=ure |
| By: | Ferrari, Alessandro; Loseto, Marco |
| Abstract: | Using administrative data on mortgages issued in Italy between 2018 and 2019, this paper estimates loan demand elasticities to maturity and interest rate. We findthat households are responsive to both contract terms: a 1% decrease in interestrate increases the average loan size by 0.22% whereas a commensurable increasein maturity increases loan demand by 0.30%. This evidence suggests that creditconstraints are relevant in this market. Things change substantially when movingalong the distribution of contract maturities: short term borrowers are unresponsive to their contract lengthwhile maturity elasticities are higher for long term borrowers. JEL Classification: D12, D14, D15, G11, G51 |
| Keywords: | credit demand, household finance, maturity, mortgage |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20232859&r=ure |
| By: | Anda DAVID; Gibson MUDIRIZA; Joanna GROTTE; Ariane DE LANNOY; Murray LEIBBRANDT |
| Abstract: | Assessing the labour market situation for young people is a critical area of research that has attracted the attention of scholars and policymakers globally. However, understanding the complexity of the labour market for youth, particularly in developing countries, requires a comprehensive, multidimensional approach. We address this need by developing a Youth Labour Market Index (YLMI) for South Africa, incorporating ten indicators that capture the unique youth labour market situation from various perspectives. Drawing on nationally representative data from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey for the period 2013-2023, the YLMI provides a nuanced understanding of the labour market for 15-35-year-olds, and further allows for the identification of variations in the labour market’s functionality for various subgroups of the youth population. The study reveals alarmingly low YLMI scores for South Africa and its nine provinces, which have decreased over time. Significant gender and rural-urban disparities in the distribution of the YLMI scores are observed, and the YLMI scores exhibit an unequal spatial distribution, with lower values concentrated in provinces in former homeland areas. Further analysis reveals that the working conditions and education dimensions are the primary contributors to the low YLMI score, highlighting their role as major drivers of the underperforming youth labour market. Specifically, relative unemployment, skills mismatch, vulnerable employment, and lack of secondary education are the key indicators contributing to the low YLMI scores, with vulnerable employment being particularly critical. These results highlight that the South African labour market for youth is highly dysfunctional and has worsened over time. A defunct labour market entrenches inequality by contributing to further unemployment, pointing to an urgent need for policymakers to address the deteriorating situation. The YLMI provides a valuable tool for informing and targeting the necessary policies and interventions to promote a well-functioning labour market for youth. |
| Keywords: | Afrique du Sud |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2023–09–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en15919&r=ure |
| By: | Bury, Yannick; Feld, Lars P.; Köhler, Ekkehard A. |
| Abstract: | With an outstandingly long data set of Swiss cantonal public finances we study whether the Swiss subnational level runs sustainable fiscal policies. Going back to the year 1905, we test for stationarity of cantonal public debt, revenue and spending and for cointegration between cantonal revenues and expenditures. Based on time series properties, we estimate individual fiscal reaction functions for each canton and for the panel of cantons as a whole. Using second generation panel-modelling which accounts for heterogeneity in cantonal fiscal policy, structural breaks and cross-sectional dependence among the cantons, our results show that the cantons run sustainable policies. Moreover, our results provide evidence that fiscal institutions can explain part of the heterogeneity in cantonal fiscal reactions to increased debt. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Sustainability, Fiscal Institutions, Swiss Cantons |
| JEL: | H62 H77 H72 C23 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:aluord:279787&r=ure |
| By: | Ashani Amarasinghe (School of Economics, University of Sydney and and SoDa Laboratories, Monash University;); Pushkar Maitra (Department of Economics, Monash University); Yuchen Zhong (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economics and Social Research, University of Melbourne) |
| Abstract: | Better economic outcomes can prevail when governments at different levels of hierarchy are politically aligned. This often happens because upper level governments are more willing to transfer resources to, and invest in public goods in, aligned constituencies. In this paper we examine whether such political alignment causally affects security. We consider the case of the Naxalite insurgency in India, an issue of significant public safety and security. We focus on close elections and use a regression discontinuity (RD) design, which allows us to examine the causal impact of electing an aligned candidate on security. Our RD estimates show that the election of an aligned candidate leads to a significant reduction in violence. Examining the role of local natural resource activity, i.e., mining, as an underlying mechanism, we find that this negative effect is driven by constituencies close to mining areas. These findings confirm the relevance of political alignment in delivering security within constituencies, and the potential role played by local mining activity. |
| Keywords: | Political alignment, Naxalite insurgency, security, India |
| JEL: | H11 H41 H56 D72 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2023-22&r=ure |
| By: | Anil Kashyap |
| Abstract: | Property development are highly capital intensive, most real projects opt for bank or institutional finances, to finance the construction. In a construction-linked payment (CLP) plan, buyers, developers and financial institutions come together, to ensure participation of each stakeholder. BIM can be used to support construction-linked payments, which are payments made to contractors based on the progress of construction work. By using BIM, stakeholders can monitor the progress of the project in real time and track the completion of specific tasks. This allows for more accurate and timely payments to be made to developer, based on the items of the work that has actually been completed. This would serves dual purpose, firstly that money released by financial institutions will be used on the project for which it is allocated and also with BIM model, the nearly exact dates of payments required can be predicted with more accuracy and certainty. These digital advances in construction projects would help on time and on budget. This helps to ensure that payments are made based on actual progress, rather than estimates or assumptions. |
| Keywords: | Building Information Modelling; Construction Linked Payment; Developer; Stakeholder |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_262&r=ure |
| By: | Costola, Michele; Iacopini, Matteo; Wichers, Casper |
| Abstract: | A novel spatial autoregressive model for panel data is introduced, which incorporates multilayer networks and accounts for time-varying relationships. Moreover, the proposed approach allows the structural variance to evolve smoothly over time and enables the analysis of shock propagation in terms of time-varying spillover effects. The framework is applied to analyse the dynamics of international relationships among the G7 economies and their impact on stock market returns and volatilities. The findings underscore the substantial impact of cooperative interactions and highlight discernible disparities in network exposure across G7 nations, along with nuanced patterns in direct and indirect spillover effects. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian inference, International relationships, Multilayer networks, Spatial autoregressive model, Time-varying networks, Stochastic volatility |
| JEL: | C11 C33 C51 C58 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:279783&r=ure |
| By: | Badariah Din |
| Abstract: | Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) is gaining wide acceptance by many state’s governments in Malaysia due to its potential to create a liveable neighbourhood with enhanced mobility. Therefore, the present study to examine criteria that are considered critical for the success of TOD adoptions based on integrated perceptions from residents and retail operators who live nearby or work at the selected northern KTM commuter stations in Malaysia. The data for this study were gathered from a survey on 360 residents who used the Northern KTM commuter train service. Descriptive and inferential technique was performed to analyse the data and produce the findings. The findings of this study shown that there were significant differences in travel behaviour patterns (companions, frequencies, and walking durations) with respect to respondents’ travel purposes. Moreover, it was revealed that land-use diversity and walkable design as important TOD principles that contribute to their quality of life. Besides residents’ perspectives, the present study also considered the retail operators’ viewpoints in estimating the impact of TOD adoption on quality of life. Unlike residents’ perspectives, retail operators’ quality of life was assessed in terms of business performance and business well-being. “Density” principle showed positive impacts on both retailers’ business performance and business well-being. The findings of this research would serve as a base but critical information to direct future National Estate Development Plan. |
| Keywords: | critical success factors; Malaysia; Quality of Lifer; transit-oriented development |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_351&r=ure |
| By: | Alemán, Christian; Busch, Christopher; Ludwig, Alexander; Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül |
| Abstract: | We develop a method that identifies the effects of nationwide policy, i.e., policy implemented across all regions at the same time. The core idea is to track outcome paths in terms of stages rather than time, where a stage of a regional outcome at time t is its location on the support of a reference path. The method proceeds in two steps. First, a normalization maps the time paths of regional outcomes onto the reference path-using only pre-policy data. This uncovers cross-regional heterogeneity of the stage at which policy is implemented. Second, this stage variation identifies policy effects inside a window of stages where a stage-leading region provides the no-policy counterfactual path for non-leading regions that are subject to policy inside that window. We assess our method's performance with Monte-Carlo experiments, illustrate it with empirical applications, and show that it captures heterogeneous policy effects across stages. |
| Keywords: | Stages, Identification, Policy Effects, Nationwide Policy, Macroeconomics |
| JEL: | C01 E00 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:279568&r=ure |
| By: | Ivàn José Barreda Tarrazona (Universitat Jaume I de Castelló, Spain); Agnès Festré (Université Côte d'Azur, France; GREDEG CNRS); Stein Østbye (University of Tromsø, Norway) |
| Abstract: | The social fabric, generally recognized as essential for economic and social transactions, is often referred to as Social Capital (SC). In this paper, we explore to what extent inexpensive attitudinal survey data can be a substitute for more expensive experimental data as a metric of SC, using a cross-country design. We use data from two standard subject pools (located in Spain and France) and a mixed-method approach in the sense of presenting validated attitudinal survey questions from the SC section of the latest wave of World Values Survey (WVS) to our participants, in addition to games for eliciting SC through actions and beliefs. Our data can be compared to publicly available WVS data at the relevant regional level as well as the national level. The main takeaway from our study is that SC measured by survey items consistently is higher in Spain than in France regardless of item and spatial resolution (nation, region, lab), whereas SC measured by choices and beliefs in incentivised games consistently is higher in France. This may confirm that there is reason for scepticism concerning the validity of survey measures in the context of social capital, not least since we, as opposed to in earlier studies, have data on group specific items used in the latest wave of WVS pertaining to trust in personal relations as well as more distant relations, all consistently pointing in the same direction regardless of spatial resolution. In this version of the paper we are concentrating on aggregates. Work remain to be done on the individual level. |
| Keywords: | social capital, mixed-method, cross-cultural, lab experiments |
| JEL: | Q12 C22 D81 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2023-13&r=ure |
| By: | Jerome Picault; Arnaud Simon |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to study the evolution of office prices on the Paris market through the construction of a hedonic price index. The underlying heterogeneity of assets included in the index is a serious source of bias if not correctly considered. To solve this problem, we propose a methodology enabling to develop an indicator of perceived location quality in our model. This indicator is based, first, on the identification of a set of characteristics that contribute to the location quality of an office. Second, each attribute is weighted with a collection of preferences through surveys realized with professionals of commercial real estate. The tests we have realized so far seems to suggest two main results. First, when controlling of location quality with our perceived quality indicator, the growth of office prices in Paris seems to have been more important during the 2010 decade than the one expressed by the indices used by CRE professionals. This increase of price seems to accelerate around 2015, which is the period where the European central bank launched a program of Quantitative easing to support the economic growth in the European Union. Second, the investigation of the coefficients of the location quality indicator seems to indicate that the sensitivity of prices to it has risen during the period. This observation could reveal an increase of the price of centrality during the period. |
| Keywords: | Centrality; commercial real estate investment; Hedonic Index; perceived quality |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_181&r=ure |
| By: | Stephen Lee |
| Abstract: | Cross-sectional dispersion is an attractive metric in examining the volatility of the market at any one point in time. It is even more useful if total dispersion is decomposed into its beta and non-market components, helping fund managers understand whether there are still investment opportunities, even during financial, economic, and political crises. Using monthly data for 11 sectors and 15 regions from the MSCI database in the UK, over the period from 2002:4 to 2022:12, we draw a number of conclusions. First, in times of market crisis, there is a sharp increase in cross-sectional dispersion. Second, beta risk dominates non-market risk, especially in times of market stress, which suggests that fund managers have very few investment opportunities that can outperform the market. Third, the amount of beta and non-market risk has grown considerably, relative to that in regional portfolios, following the results of the BREXIT referendum, the COVID era, and especially in the political uncertainty following the resignation of Boris Johnson. However, even in periods of market stress sectors display greater levels of non-market risk than regional portfolios, which indicates that fund managers could still have found potentially attractive investment opportunities, even during those periods. As such, sector allocation should be the first level of analysis in constructing real estate portfolios. Fund managers, however, need to carefully examine the size and sources of non-market return dispersion to determine their optimal investment approach at any one point in time. |
| Keywords: | Beta dispersion; Dispersion; monthly data; Non-market dispersion |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_155&r=ure |
| By: | Filomena, Mattia; Picchio, Matteo |
| Abstract: | We analyse how unemployment affects individuals' social networks, leisure activities, and the related satisfaction measures. Using the LISS panel, a representative longitudinal survey of the Dutch population, we estimate the effects by inverse propensity score weighting in a difference-in-differences design in order to deal with unobserved heterogeneity and unbalanced covariate distribution between treated and control units potentially associated with the dynamics of the outcome variables. We find that, after job loss, individuals increase their network size by strengthening their closest contacts within the family, spending more time with neighbors, and making more use of social media. Although they devote their extra leisure time mostly to private activities, our results do not support the hypothesis of social exclusion following unemployment. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment, job loss, social exclusion, leisure, social satisfaction, doubly robust difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | I31 J01 J64 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1346&r=ure |
| By: | Marin Ferry (ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - Université Gustave Eiffel, LEDA-DIAL - Développement, Institutions et Modialisation - LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Marine de Talancé (ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - Université Gustave Eiffel, LEDA-DIAL - Développement, Institutions et Modialisation - LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Miguel Niño-Zarazúa |
| Abstract: | Soaring levels of public debt in low-income countries are fuelling concerns about their ability to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, such as free access to primary education. In the late 1990s and 2000s, international financial institutions introduced a series of debt relief initiatives aimed to restore debt sustainability among highly indebted countries. This study examines the impact of these initiatives on primary school attendance. We exploit the temporal variation in the implementation of these policies, in combination with individual-level data from 177 Demographic and Health Surveys covering more than 1.5 million school-age children from 44 low-income countries to implement difference-in-differences and spatial difference-in-discontinuity estimators. Results suggest that debt relief initiatives, by freeing up additional public resources, have significantly contributed to increasing primary school attendance in heavily indebted countries. Impact heterogeneity analysis also shows that debt relief has been effective at reducing wealth-based, intergenerational, religious, ethnic and spatial inequalities in education. Our results provide robust evidence to assert that debt relief, in combination with other financing sources, can contribute to improving educational outcomes in highly indebted poor countries. |
| Keywords: | Debt relief, Education, Financing for development |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04258128&r=ure |
| By: | Bart Cockx (Department of Economics, Ghent University. CESifo (Munich), IRES (UCLouvain), IZA (Bonn), ROA (Maastricht University).); Jinkai Li (Department of Economics, Ghent University.); Erga Luo (Department of Agricultural Economics and Management, Zhejiang University.) |
| Abstract: | In 2015, 15% of all children in China were left behind in the countryside because at least one of their parents migrated to a city. We implement an event study analysis between 2010 and 2018 on five waves of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) to investigate the dynamic effects of parental migration on the health of left behind young children (LBC). While we find a gradual increase in medical expenditures, we do not detect any significant impact on the incidence of sickness. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the incidence of overweight declines gradually since their parents’ first migration and reports suggestive evidence for mental health improvement. We argue that these long-term positive effects on health and health consumption can be explained by the transitory nature of migration, the high-quality substitution of the caregiver role by grandparents, and by a reorientation in family expenditures, partly induced by government policy. |
| Keywords: | young left-behind children; parental migration; Hukou system; long-term impact on health; event study analysis; mechanisms analysis |
| JEL: | I15 J10 J61 |
| Date: | 2023–11–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2023019&r=ure |
| By: | Grillitsch, Markus (CIRCLE, Lund University); Asheim, Björn (CIRCLE, Lund University); Fünfschilling, Lea (CIRCLE, Lund University); Kelmenson, Sophie (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill); Lowe, Nicola (CIRCLE, Lund University); Lundquist, Karl Johan (CIRCLE, Lund University); Mahmoud, Yahia (CIRCLE, Lund University); Martynovich, Mikhail (CIRCLE, Lund University); Mattson, Pauline (CIRCLE, Lund University); Miörner, Johan (CIRCLE, Lund University); Nilsson, Magnus (CIRCLE, Lund University); Schubert, Torben (CIRCLE, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | Rescaling as a concept has been used to investigate and explain shifting patterns in economic and industrial development. This ranges from processes explaining the shift towards globalisation in the 1980s to current calls for shifts towards decarbonisation, national security, and more even development, which profoundly affect the organisation of economies and industries. This paper aims to unpack the notion of rescaling, identify and elaborate on different dimensions of rescaling, and use rescaling as conceptual and analytical lens to discuss and understand shifting patterns in economic and industrial development. We explore the potential of rescaling to capture the complex processes underpinning such shifts in patterns with a unifying language that connects multiple disciplinary perspectives. It is also relevant from a societal perspective as rescaling has been used as a strategy to affect the patterns in economic and industrial development. |
| Keywords: | economic development; industrial dynamics; globalisation; technological regimes; industrial policy; sustainable development |
| JEL: | F02 F50 F60 L50 L60 O10 O30 |
| Date: | 2023–11–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2023_011&r=ure |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Ireland is home to a vibrant social enterprise community, active in essential sectors such as health, care, and education, as well as local development and cultural and creative sectors. This report provides an in-depth analysis of social entrepreneurship and social enterprises in Ireland. It identifies the country’s strengths and challenges and provides policy recommendations. An action plan with concrete and actionable measures is also provided to support Ireland in the development of its new national social enterprise policy. Following an overview of the socio-economic landscape (Chapter 1), the report describes factors underpinning social entrepreneurship, social enterprises and the social economy in the context of Ireland (Chapter 2); analyses the institutional and legal framework around social enterprises (Chapter 3); explores conditions and opportunities for access to finance and funding (Chapter 4); navigates developments in access to public and private markets for social enterprises (Chapter 5); looks at the existing state of social impact measurement and data availability on social enterprises (Chapter 6) and concludes with skills and business development for social entrepreneurship (Chapter 7). |
| Keywords: | local development, policy ecosystem, social economy, social enterprise, social entrepreneurship, social impact, social innovation |
| JEL: | L31 L33 L38 O35 |
| Date: | 2023–11–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:cfeaaa:2023/20-en&r=ure |
| By: | Bram De Rock; Mariia Kovaleva; Tom Potoms |
| Abstract: | To analyze the impact of changes in the value of marriage on household decisions, we present a limited commitment framework of household behavior in which decisions are made regarding labor supply, divorce and housing demand over the lifecycle. We identify and estimate our structural model using exogenous variation in female labor supply and divorce rates due to the White v. White case in England. We conclude that limited commitment dampens the added worker effect, while the changes in the value of marriage due to a housing price shock have an asymmetric impact on individual welfare both across gender and marital state. We also show that tightening the credit market in different ways can lead to opposite behavior in terms of household savings and female labor supply. |
| Keywords: | Limited commitment, divorce legislation, value of marriage, housing demand, labor supply, credit market policy. |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/364446&r=ure |
| By: | Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos (University of Essex); Kaas, Leo (Goethe University Frankfurt); Lochner, Benjamin (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | Firms and workers predominately match via job postings, networks of personal contacts or the public employment agency, all of which help to ameliorate labor market frictions. In this paper we investigate the extent to which these search channels have differential effects on labor market outcomes. Using novel linked survey-administrative data we document that (i) low-wage firms and low-wage workers are more likely to match via networks or the public agency, while high-wage firms and high-wage workers succeed more often via job postings; (ii) job postings help firms the most in poaching and attracting high-wage workers and help workers the most in climbing the job ladder. To evaluate the implications of these findings for employment, wages and labor market sorting, we structurally estimate an equilibrium job ladder model featuring two-sided heterogeneity, multiple search channels and endogenous recruitment effort. The estimation reveals that networks are the most cost-effective channel, allowing firms to hire quickly, yet attracting workers of lower average ability. Job postings are the most costly channel, facilitate hiring workers of higher ability, and matter most for worker-firm sorting. Although the public employment agency provides the lowest hiring probability, its removal has sizeable consequences, with aggregate employment declining by at least 1.4 percent and rising bottom wage inequality. |
| Keywords: | search channels, on-the-job search, recruitment effort, sorting, wage dispersion |
| JEL: | E24 J23 J31 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16583&r=ure |