nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2023‒11‒06
fifty-two papers chosen by
Steve Ross, University of Connecticut

  1. Good Schools or Good Students?: Evidence on School Effects from Universal Random Assignment of Students to High Schools By Cristia, Julian P.; Bastos, Paulo; Beomsoo, Kim; Malamud, Ofer
  2. The Lasting Impact of Historical Residential Security Maps on Experienced Segregation By Daniel Aaronson; Daniel Hartley; Bhashkar Mazumder
  3. Permanent School Closures and Crime: Evidence from Scotland By Daniel Borbely; Markus Gehrsitz; Stuart McIntyre; Gennaro Rossi
  4. School and Crime By Jones, Todd R.; Karger, Ezra
  5. The Effects of Exposure to Refugees on Crime: Evidence from the Greek Islands By Megalokonomou, Rigissa; Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis
  6. Understanding Urban Economies, Land Use, and Social Dynamics in the City: Big Data and Measurement By Saiz, Albert; Salazar-Miranda, Arianna
  7. The effect of urban trees on house prices: evidence from cut-down trees in Amsterdam By Jan Rouwendal; Lynn Bouwknegt
  8. Starting the School Year on the Right Foot. Effects of a Summer Learning Program Targeting Vulnerable Students in Italy By Azzolini, Davide; Bazzoli, Martina; Burlacu, Sergiu; Rettore, Enrico
  9. Racial Differences in Parent Response to COVID Schooling Policies By Micah Y. Baum; Brian Jacob
  10. Tourism usage of digital collaborative economy platforms in Europe: situation, behaviours and implication for the digital policies By Mendieta-Aragón, Adrián; Rodríguez-Fernández, Laura; Navío-Marco, Julio
  11. Agglomeration and Congestion in Latin America By Gómez-Lobo, Andrés; Sánchez González, Santiago; González Mejia, Vileydy; Calatayud, Agustina
  12. Welcoming Remarks: A speech at the FedCommunities event "Keys to Opportunity in the Housing Market: Research on Strategies for Preserving and Expanding Rental Housing Affordability, " Washington, D.C., Sept. 26, 2023 By Michelle W. Bowman
  13. Do shared E-bikes reduce urban carbon emissions? By Li, Qiumeng; Fuerst, Franz; Luca, Davide
  14. Marshall meets Bartik: Revisiting the mysteries of the trade By Yasusada Murata; Ryo Nakajima
  15. Estimation of Welfare Effects in Hedonic Difference-in-Differences: The Case in School Redistricting By Xiaozhou Ding; Christopher Bollinger; Michael Clark; William Hoyt; William H. Hoyt
  16. Disentangling Small-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Adoption: A Spatial Analysis of Decision Factors and Localized Interactions in Germany By Tobias Stein; Lisa Sieger; Christoph Weber
  17. K–12 Schools in Ohio Are Separate and Unequal By Dionissi Aliprantis; Mukund Jayaram
  18. Insider Insights on Refinancing Mistakes Offered by Real Estate Funding Solutions By , olaoyegodwin
  19. Customary Land Conversion in African Cities By Picard, Pierre M.; Selod, Harris
  20. Valuing the Virtual: The Impact of Fiber to the Home (FTTH) on Property Prices in France By Guiffard, Jean-Baptiste
  21. Household Liquidity and Macroeconomic Stabilization: Evidence from Mortgage Forbearance By Sean Chanwook Lee; Omeed Maghzian
  22. Italy’s National Recovery and Resilient Plan: Will it Narrow the North-South Productivity Gap? By Luciano Mauro; Francesco Pigliaru
  23. Do bigger legislatures lead to bigger government? Evidence from a Brazilian municipal council reform By Schneider, Rodrigo; Veras, Henrique
  24. The Impact of Immigration on the Employment Dynamics of European Regions By Edo, Anthony; Özgüzel, Cem
  25. The Effect of Childhood Environment on Political Behavior: Evidence from Young U.S. Movers, 1992–2021 By Jacob R. Brown; Enrico Cantoni; Sahil Chinoy; Martin Koenen; Vincent Pons
  26. From Wells to Wealth? Government Transfers and Human Capital By Acuna, Julio; Balza, Lenin; Gómez Parra, Nicolás
  27. Investigating Inefficiencies in the German Rental Housing Market: The Impact of Disclosing Total Costs on Energy Efficiency Appreciation By Lisa Sieger
  28. Do Creative Industries Enhance Employment Growth? Regional Evidence from Colombia By Campi, Mercedes; Dueñas, Marco; Ciarli, Tommaso
  29. Consumption Segregation By Corina Boar; Elisa Giannone
  30. The Wage Effects of Employers' Associations: A Case Study of the Private Schools Sector By Martins, Pedro S.
  31. The Environmental Cost of Easy Credit: The Housing Channel By Manuel Adelino; David T. Robinson
  32. Natural Resource Windfalls In Nonproducing Areas By Ome, Alejandro; Pérez, Javier
  33. Loans for the "Little Fellow:" Credit, Crisis, and Recovery in the Great Depression By Sarah Quincy
  34. Why Choose Career Technical Education? Disentangling Student Preferences from Program Availability By Brian A. Jacob; Michael D. Ricks
  35. A brief overview of theoretical and empirical approaches to solving transport problems and problems on the development of transport networks By Rostislav, Kirill (Ростислав, Кирилл); Rusakov, Dmitry (Русаков, Дмитрий); Saprykin, Matvey (Сапрыкин, Матвей)
  36. Sheltering in Place? A Closer Look at Pandemic Rental Instability in Six Southeastern States By Pearse Haley; Grace Meagher; Sarah Stein
  37. Unintended Consequences of Youth Entrepreneurship Programs: Experimental Evidence from Rwanda By Blimpo, Moussa P.; Pugatch, Todd
  38. Far East and Far North: how to prevent an outflow of young people By Lyashok, Victor (Ляшок, Виктор); Mkrtchyan, Nikita (Мкртчян, Никита); Florinskaya, Yuliya (Флоринская, Юлия)
  39. Migrants and local development in the Italian Inner Areas: opportunities and critical issues By Giulia Lang
  40. The Within-Country Distribution of Brain Drain and Brain Gain Effects: A Case Study on Senegal By Bocquier, Philippe; Cha’Ngom, Narcisse; Docquier, Frédéric; Machado, Joël
  41. Learning from experts: Energy efficiency in residential buildings By Billio, Monica; Casarin, Roberto; Costola, Michele; Veggente, Veronica
  42. Toward a competence model of data literacy for middle and secondary school By Deryabin, Andrey (Дерябин, Андрей); Popov, Alexander (Попов, Александр)
  43. Urban water security: Assessing the impacts of metering and pricing in Aotearoa New Zealand By Thomas Benison; Julia Talbot-Jones
  44. Flood Risk Mapping and the Distributional Impacts of Climate Information By Joakim A. Weill
  45. Firm employment dynamics in Kazakhstan after sudden Russian immigration By David R. DeRemer; Yelzhas Kadyr; Aigerim Yergabulova
  46. Outward and Upward Construction: A 3D Analysis of the Global Building Stock By Remi Jedwab; Thomas Esch; Klaus Deininger; Daniela Palacios-Lopez
  47. Geographic Variation in Healthcare Utilization: The Role of Physicians By Ivan Badinski; Amy Finkelstein; Matthew Gentzkow; Peter Hull
  48. Take the train and climb the social ladder. The role of geographical mobility in the fight against inequality in Quebec By Yacine Boujija; Marie Connolly; Xavier St-Denis
  49. Tax-Induced Emigration: Who Flees High Taxes? Evidence from the Netherlands By José Victor C. Giarola; Olivier Marie; Frank Cörvers; Hans Schmeets
  50. Effects of Supply, Demand, and Labor Market Shocks in the Mexican Manufacturing Sector By Colunga L. Fernando; Torre Cepeda Leonardo
  51. Are Immigrants Particularly Entrepreneurial? Policy Lessons from a Selective Immigration System By Green, David A.; Liu, Huju; Ostrovsky, Yuri; Picot, Garnett
  52. Real Effects of Rollover Risk: Evidence from Hotels in Crisis By Anthony A. DeFusco; Charles G. Nathanson; Michael Reher

  1. By: Cristia, Julian P.; Bastos, Paulo; Beomsoo, Kim; Malamud, Ofer
    Abstract: How much do schools differ in their effectiveness? Recent studies that seek to answer this question account for student sorting using random assignment generated by central allocation mechanisms or oversubscribed schools. However, the resulting estimates, while causal, may also reflect peer effects due to differences in peer quality of non-randomized students. We exploit universal random assignment of students to high schools in certain areas of South Korea to provide estimates of school effects that may better reflect the effects of school practices. We find significant effects of schools on scores in high-stakes college entrance exams: a 1 standard deviation increase in school quality leads to 0.06-0.08 standard deviations higher average academic achievement in Korean and English languages. Analogous estimates from areas of South Korea that do not use random assignment, and therefore include the effects of student sorting and peer effects, are substantially higher.
    Keywords: School effects;Universal random assignment;Peer effects;School inputs
    JEL: I21 J24
    Date: 2022–07
  2. By: Daniel Aaronson; Daniel Hartley; Bhashkar Mazumder
    Abstract: We study the impact of the 1930s HOLC residential security maps on experienced segregation based on cell phone records which track visits out of and into home neighborhoods. We compare adjacent neighborhoods, one of which was assigned a lower grade for creditworthiness than the other. We use a sample of neighborhood borders which, based on estimated propensity scores, are likely to have been drawn for idiosyncratic reasons. Neighborhoods on the lower graded side of the border are associated with more visits to other historically lower graded destination neighborhoods. Today, these destination neighborhoods tend to have lower household income and, in some cases, lower educational attainment. We find that these disparities in visits are not driven by work commutes, very local visits, or differences in income. We also find similar disparities for incoming visits. Finally, we study the impact of the maps on non-residential segregation at the city level, based on a comparison of cities around a population cutoff that determined whether a city was included in the HOLC program. Using transition matrices, we describe visit probabilities across the distribution of home and destination neighborhood incomes. In cities with HOLC maps, visits across neighborhood income lines are less common, but this effect is less pronounced for the richest home neighborhoods. These findings suggest that these historical “redlining” maps affect non-residential segregation and the social interactions of urban residents in the present day.
    Keywords: Redlining; Access to credit; experienced segregation; Mobility
    JEL: R23 N32 N92 G21 J15
    Date: 2023–09
  3. By: Daniel Borbely (Department of Economics, Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, UK); Markus Gehrsitz (Fraser of Allander Institute, Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK and Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), Bonn, Germany); Stuart McIntyre (Fraser of Allander Institute, Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK); Gennaro Rossi (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S1 4DT, UK)
    Abstract: In this article we study the effects of permanent school closures on crime. We leverage the closure of over 300 schools in Scotland between the school years 2006/07 and 2018/19, and employ a staggered difference-in-differences design on a matched sample. We find that neighbourhoods affected by school closures experience a reduction in crime of about 9% of a standard deviation, relative to areas where schools remained open. This effect is mainly driven by a reduction in violent and property crimes. We provide evidence on several mechanisms explaining the negative crime effect, such as changes in neighbourhood composition and reductions in school-level segregation.
    Keywords: Crime, School Closures, Neighbourhoods
    JEL: I38 R20 K42
    Date: 2023–10
  4. By: Jones, Todd R. (Mississippi State University); Karger, Ezra (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)
    Abstract: Criminal activity is seasonal, peaking in the summer and declining through the winter. We provide the first evidence that arrests of children and reported crimes involving children follow a different pattern: peaking during the school year and declining in the summer. We use a regression discontinuity design surrounding the exact start and end dates of the school year to show that this pattern is caused by school: children aged 10–17 are roughly 50% more likely to be involved in a reported crime during the beginning of the school year relative to the weeks before school begins. This sharp increase is driven by student-on-student crimes occurring in school and during school hours. We use the timing of these patterns and a seasonal adjustment to argue that school increases reported crime rates (and arrests) involving 10–17-year-old offenders by 47% (41%) annually relative to a counterfactual where crime rates follow typical seasonal patterns. School exacerbates preexisting sex-based and race-based inequality in reported crime and arrest rates, increasing both the Black-white and male-female gap in reported juvenile crime and arrest rates by more than 40%.
    Keywords: school, crime, academic calendar, regression discontinuity
    JEL: I2 K4
    Date: 2023–10
  5. By: Megalokonomou, Rigissa (Monash University); Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis (Bangor University)
    Abstract: Recent political instability in the Middle East has triggered one of the largest influxes of refugees into Europe. The different departure points along the Turkish coast generate exogenous variation in refugee arrivals across Greek islands. We construct a new dataset on the number and nature of crime incidents and arrested offenders at island level using official police records and newspaper reports. Instrumental variables and difference-in-differences are employed to study the causal relationship between immigration and crime. We find that a 1-percentage-point increase in the share of refugees on destination islands increases crime incidents by 1.7-2.5 percentage points compared with neighboring unexposed islands. This is driven by crime incidents committed by refugees; there is no change in crimes committed by natives on those islands. We find a significant rise in property crime, knife attacks, and rape, but no increase in drug crimes. Results based on reported crimes exhibit a similar pattern. Our findings highlight the need for government provision in terms of infrastructure, social benefits, quicker evaluation for asylum, and social security.
    Keywords: crime, migration, natural experiment, Greek islands, difference-in-differences, shiftshare instrumental variable
    JEL: F61 F22 K42 J15
    Date: 2023–10
  6. By: Saiz, Albert (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Salazar-Miranda, Arianna (MIT)
    Abstract: Recent advancements in data collection have expanded the tools and information available for urban and spatial-based research. This paper presents an overview of spatial big data sources used in urban science and urban economics, with the goal of directing and enriching future research by other applied economists. We structure our discussion around data origins and analytical methods, discussing geographic information maps, GPS and CDR, textual repositories, social media, credit card transactions, street imagery, sensor readings, volumetric data, street patterns, transportation metrics, public records, geocoded historical data, business analytics, real estate transactions, and crowdsourced input. While aiming to provide an overarching perspective, we also touch upon common challenges in urban big data research, especially those unique to data collection, analysis, and inference.
    Keywords: urban big data
    JEL: J01 C80 R00 R32 R58
    Date: 2023–10
  7. By: Jan Rouwendal (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Lynn Bouwknegt (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of urban trees on house prices in Amsterdam by utilizing a detailed data set of trees that were cut-down near the house. By using exogenous reasons the tree was cut-down such as disease or storm, unobserved heterogeneity can be dealt with, and a causal effect established. We use a staggered difference-in-difference approach to hedonic pricing analysis. We find an effect of 1.19 percent decrease in house prices when a tree is cut-down within 75 meters of the house. The effect is largest when trees within that area are scarce. This provides further evidence that urban trees are a valued aesthetic amenity for home owners and should be treated accordingly.
    JEL: D62 Q51 R31
    Date: 2023–10–12
  8. By: Azzolini, Davide (FBK-IRVAPP); Bazzoli, Martina (FBK-IRVAPP); Burlacu, Sergiu (FBK-IRVAPP); Rettore, Enrico (University of Padova)
    Abstract: We conducted a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the impact of a summer learning program for vulnerable students across ten cities in Italy (N=1, 038). The program had two components: educational workshops in small groups (88 hours) and personalized tutoring (12 hours). Results indicate significant improvements in reading comprehension and marginally in grammar. Improvements in arithmetic and geometry are smaller albeit significant when aggregated into a single mathematics score. Effects were most pronounced among primary school students and among students with special needs or from vulnerable environments. The program compensated for summer learning loss, as treatment group students returned to school in September with higher learning levels than before the summer, while the control group experienced learning setbacks, predominantly in mathematics. While the study clearly shows that students start the new year with a higher level of competencies, it does not definitively establish the lasting impact of these effects. An explorative analysis of noncognitive skills provides conflicting insights: an increase in students' interest in acquiring new competencies suggests potential enduring effects, but the emergence of dissatisfaction with traditional school activities and heightened school-related stress raises concerns about reduced engagement with conventional schooling.
    Keywords: summer learning loss, achievement gap, field experiment, metropolitan suburbs
    JEL: I24
    Date: 2023–10
  9. By: Micah Y. Baum; Brian Jacob
    Abstract: This paper examines whether school COVID-19 policies influenced enrollment differently by student age and race/ethnicity. Unlike much prior research, we (i) analyze enrollments for virtually the entire U.S. public school population for both the 2020-21 and 2021-22 school years, (ii) compare enrollment trends within districts in order to isolate subgroup heterogeneity from district characteristics, and (iii) account for district selection into preferred learning modes. Analyzing data on over 9, 000 districts that serve more than 90% of public school students in the U.S., we find enrollment responses to COVID policies differed notably. We find that White enrollments declined more than Black, Hispanic, and Asian enrollments in districts that started the 2020-21 school year virtually, but in districts that started in-person the reverse was true: non-White enrollments declined more than White enrollments. Moreover, Black, Hispanic, and Asian families responded more than White families to higher COVID-19 death rates in the months preceding the start of the 2021 school year. In 2021-22, enrollment differences by the previous year’s learning mode persisted. Racial/ethnic differences did not vary by whether the district required masking in classrooms. These findings are consistent with the greater risk faced by communities of color during the pandemic and demonstrate an additional source of disparate impact from COVID policies.
    JEL: I1 I20 I21
    Date: 2023–10
  10. By: Mendieta-Aragón, Adrián; Rodríguez-Fernández, Laura; Navío-Marco, Julio
    Abstract: This research analyses how tourists using digital sharing economy platforms have behaved in the European Union, whether there are differences between European regions and how they have evolved with the pandemic. Using spatial econometric techniques, this study provides a comparative analysis, in space and time, that identifies regional inequalities in terms of the intensity of demand for accommodation offered on digital sharing economy platforms. In particular, different clusters of high intensity of collaborative tourism have been detected, and spatial spillover effects and interdependencies of European regions in collaborative tourism have been recognised, finding a positive spatial autocorrelation in the intensity rate of collaborative tourism. An effect of tourist destination saturation on the use of accommodation offered on digital sharing economy platforms has also been observed. Several digital public policy implications have been discussed, promoting regulatory coordination at the interregional and pan-European levels to avoid inequalities and imbalances across Europe.
    Keywords: Digital tourism, platforms' economy, digital policies, European regions, sharing, ESDA, spatial models
    Date: 2023
  11. By: Gómez-Lobo, Andrés; Sánchez González, Santiago; González Mejia, Vileydy; Calatayud, Agustina
    Abstract: In this paper we explore the possible impact of urban congestion on agglomeration economies for a cross-section set of cities in Latin America. We use travel time data from Tom Tom to estimate wage regressions equations controlling for city size and congestion. We use population in each city in the 19th and early 20th century as instruments for current city size (measures by population). In our baseline estimates, we find an elasticity of wages to city size of 0.05, very similar to previous research in the region. When congestion is included in the estimation, we find that agglomeration economies are reduced. This holds even after using rain-days and average yearly as an instrument for congestion. Our results imply that congestion is a drag on economic productivity. This indirect cost of congestion is considerably larger economically than the direct cost measured as the loss of valuable time for citizens.
    Keywords: automovil;aglomeración;congestión;economic productivity;agglomeration economies
    JEL: R41 R48
    Date: 2022–02
  12. By: Michelle W. Bowman
    Date: 2023–09–26
  13. By: Li, Qiumeng; Fuerst, Franz; Luca, Davide
    Abstract: Under the threat of climate change, many global cities nowadays are promoting shared commuting modes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Shared electric bikes (e-bikes) are emerging modes that compete with bikes, cars, or public transit. However, there is a lack of empirical evidence for the net effect of shared e-bikes on carbon emissions, as shared e-bikes can substitute for both higher carbon emissions modes and cleaner commuting modes. Using a large collection of spatio-temporal trajectory data of shared e-bike trips in two provincial cities (Chengdu and Kunming) in China, this study develops a travel mode substitution model to identify the changes in travel modes due to the introduction of shared e-bike systems and to quantify the corresponding impact on net carbon emissions. We find that, on average, shared e-bikes decrease carbon emissions by 108–120 g per kilometre. More interestingly, the reduction effect is much stronger in underdeveloped non-central areas with lower density, less diversified land use, lower accessibility, and lower economic level. Although the actual carbon reduction benefits of shared e-bike schemes are far from clear, this study bears important policy implications for exploring this emerging micro-mobility mode to achieve carbon reduction impacts.
    Keywords: carbon emissions; E-bikes; micro-mobility; sharing economy; substitution effects; yrban context
    JEL: J1
    Date: 2023–10–01
  14. By: Yasusada Murata (College of Economics, Nihon University); Ryo Nakajima (Department of Economics, Keio University)
    Abstract: We identify a causal effect of top inventor inflows on patent productivity of local inventors by combining the idea-generating process described by Marshall (1890) with the Bartik (1991) instruments involving state taxes and commuting zone characteristics of the United States. We find that the local productivity gains go beyond organizational boundaries and co-inventor relationships, which implies the partially nonexcludable good nature of knowledge in a spatial economy and pertains to the mysteries of the trade in the air. Our counterfactual experiment suggests that the spatial distribution of inventive activity is substantially distorted by the presence of heterogeneity in state taxes.
    Keywords: knowledge spillovers, knowledge sharing, Bartik instruments, mysteries of the trade, idea-generating process
    JEL: R12 O31 J61 C26
    Date: 2023–09–28
  15. By: Xiaozhou Ding; Christopher Bollinger; Michael Clark; William Hoyt; William H. Hoyt
    Abstract: The difference-in-differences (DID) approach that identifies the capitalization of amenities through changes in housing prices has been widely used in the literature of hedonic estimation in the past decade. However, concerns have been raised about how to interpret the estimated capitalization effects as changes in welfare. Following an approach developed by Banzhaf (2021), we estimate the capitalization of school redistricting in a generalized DID framework that incorporates general equilibrium effects. When comparing estimates from our generalized DID model to the conventional DID model, we find significant differences in both the capitalization effects and welfare changes associated with the school redistricting.
    Keywords: difference-in-differences, hedonics, welfare, school quality
    JEL: H40 I20 R20
    Date: 2023
  16. By: Tobias Stein; Lisa Sieger; Christoph Weber (Chair for Management Sciences and Energy Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen)
    Abstract: The existence of spatial patterns in the adoption of small-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) systems is widely accepted in the academic literature. The diffusion of these systems depends on decisions of heterogenous units, often households, that form their decision based on unit characteristics and attitudes, the built environment, economic and physical factors, as well as peer effects. When including several of these factors, many studies use macro-level datasets, which have a limited ability to capture ‘real’ small-scale spatial patterns. Using data on a 1 km² grid level for Germany, we identify spatial patterns of adoption while also controlling for highly localized explanatory variables. Spatial dependence is estimated and tested with spatial econometric models. Using this set of small-scale data, we show that spatial clustering affects the adoption of residential PV systems, which is increasing with larger neighborhood sizes. Further, the presence of large-scale PV installations has strong direct and also indirect, i.e., spillover effects on the adoption of rooftop PV installations. Finally, spillover effects from defined neighborhoods are found to become statistically insignificant with larger distances, promoting the use of such small-scale data.
    Keywords: Solar PV adoption, Spatial econometrics, Adoption behavior, Energy transition
    JEL: C31 Q28 Q55 R12
    Date: 2023–10
  17. By: Dionissi Aliprantis; Mukund Jayaram
    Abstract: Schools are one of the main determinants of lifetime employment and wages. In the 1950s and 60s, many Black leaders were concerned that Supreme Court rulings outlawing the racial segregation of schools might not effectively eliminate school segregation. This Economic Commentary uses data from Ohio to show that, even today, Black and white students attend largely separate K–12 schools that provide unequal educational opportunity.
    Keywords: education; racial inequality; Education - Ohio
    Date: 2023–10–16
  18. By: , olaoyegodwin
    Abstract: Refinancing your real estate investment can be a smart financial move, but it's not without its pitfalls. As many property owners and investors have discovered, refinancing mistakes can be costly. To navigate this complex terrain successfully, it's crucial to have a deep understanding of the process and the potential pitfalls to avoid. In this article, we turn to the experts at Real Estate Funding Solutions to provide invaluable insights into refinancing mistakes and how to steer clear of them.
    Date: 2023–10–12
  19. By: Picard, Pierre M. (University of Luxembourg); Selod, Harris (World Bank)
    Abstract: We propose an urban land use model to discuss the conversion of customary agricultural land to formal and informal residential land in a developing country city. Because customary land sales are insecure, migrant buyers face a risk of eviction, which affects land markets in non-trivial ways. Both tenure risk and asymmetric information cause the city extent and population to be too small. Empirical tests of the model for Bamako, Mali, confirm the existence of tenure insecurity and information asymmetry in the primary but not in the secondary land market, consistently with information revelation after initial sales by customary holders.
    Keywords: urbanization, land markets, property rights, land tenure formalization, market failure
    JEL: O12 R14 P14
    Date: 2023–09
  20. By: Guiffard, Jean-Baptiste
    Abstract: This paper examines the value that households place on broadband internet access, explicitly focusing on the impact of eligibility for Fiber to the Home (FTTH) technology on property prices. Using a Spatial Discontinuity Design based on the border of fiber eligibility zones which have significantly expanded under France's Plan Très Haut-Débit, I find that FTTH eligibility is a significant determinant of property prices, with an average increase of 1.7 percent (2.4 percent for houses). I also consider heterogeneities in FTTH valuation based on socioeconomic characteristics, local factors and income levels. These findings highlight the growing importance of fast and reliable Internet access for households and have important implications for policymakers and Internet service providers.
    Keywords: Telecommunication, Broadband Internet, FTTH, Impact Evaluation, Regression Discontinuity Design, Hedonic Price, House market
    JEL: L96 R31 R38
    Date: 2023
  21. By: Sean Chanwook Lee; Omeed Maghzian
    Abstract: We estimate the impact of household liquidity provision on macroeconomic stabilization using the 2020 CARES Act mortgage forbearance program. We leverage intermediation frictions in forbearance induced by mortgage servicers to identify the effect of reducing short-term payments with little change in long-term debt obligations on local labor market outcomes. Following statewide business reopenings, a 1 percentage point increase in the share of mortgages in forbearance leads to a 30 basis point increase in monthly employment growth in nontradable industries. In a model incorporating geographical heterogeneity in intermediation frictions, these responses imply a household-level marginal propensity to consume out of increased liquidity that aligns with existing estimates for direct fiscal transfers. The implied debt-financed fiscal multiplier effects of forbearance are sizable but depend on the repayment terms of deferred payments and the monetary policy stance.
    Keywords: mortgage forbearance; liquidity; debt relief; CARES Act; employment; labor market
    JEL: G21 G23 G28 G51
    Date: 2023–09–10
  22. By: Luciano Mauro (Università di Trieste); Francesco Pigliaru (Università di Cagliari and CRENoS)
    Abstract: We develop an endogenous growth model to simulate the long-term impact of Italy’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) on the persistent North-South productivity gap. Our model underscores public investment as a catalyst for sustained economic growth and highlights the reliance of local government quality on the surrounding social capital. In regions with low social capital, local investment management diminishes efficiency due to prevalent misappropriation. In contrast, centralized management enhances the effectiveness of public action in these situations. The NRRP’s overall effect therefore relies on the government level to which investment management is assigned. Our quantitative exercises show that compared to centralization, decentralization weakens the NRRP’s impact on the relative position of the South. However, even under our best scenario — centralized management — the NRRP only slightly reduces the North-South productivity gap from 75% to 76.4%. Finally, our research highlights the pivotal role of a reform aimed at maintaining central control over Southern public investments well beyond 2026, when the NRRP’s actions and governance are due to stop. This type of reform can potentially yield more substantial, positive, and lasting impacts on the region.
    Keywords: Social capital, Regional convergence, Economic growth, Decentralization
    JEL: O4 N9 R5
    Date: 2023–09
  23. By: Schneider, Rodrigo; Veras, Henrique
    Abstract: Do bigger legislatures lead to bigger government? We exploit a Brazilian reform that allocated the number of municipal council seats based on population thresholds in a regression discontinuity design. We find that larger councils have significantly higher public expenditures on social goods and legislative costs. Increased spending is partly financed by significantly higher local tax revenues and is driven by a less salient form of tax to voters – on services – than property taxes. As a potential explanation for our findings, we show that, more council seats led to greater political diversity.
    Keywords: legislature size; municipal councils; local taxes; government expenditure; regression discontinuity; Brazil
    JEL: D72 H72 R51
    Date: 2023–09–29
  24. By: Edo, Anthony (CEPII, Paris); Özgüzel, Cem (OECD)
    Abstract: This paper provides the first evidence on the regional impact of immigration on native employment in a cross-country framework. By exploiting the richness of the European Labour Force Surveys and past censuses, we show that the rise in the share of immigrants across European regions over the 2010-2019 period had a modest impact on the employment-to-population rate of natives. However, the effects are highly uneven across regions and workers, and over time. First, the short-run estimates show adverse employment effects in response to immigration, while these effects disappear in the longer run. Second, low-educated native workers experience employment losses due to immigration, whereas high-educated ones are more likely to experience employment gains. Third, the presence of institutions that provide employment protection and high coverage of collective wage agreements exert a protective effect on native employment. Finally, economically dynamic regions can better absorb immigrant workers, resulting in little or no effect on the native workforce.
    Keywords: immigration, employment, labour supply, employment dynamics
    JEL: F22 J21 J61
    Date: 2023–09
  25. By: Jacob R. Brown; Enrico Cantoni; Sahil Chinoy; Martin Koenen; Vincent Pons
    Abstract: We ask how childhood environment shapes political behavior. We measure young voters’ participation and party affiliation in nationally comprehensive voter files and reconstruct their childhood location histories based on their parents’ addresses. We compare outcomes of individuals who moved between the same origin and destination counties but at different ages. Those who spend more time in the destination are more influenced by it: Growing up in a county where their peers are 10 percentage points more likely to become Republicans makes them 4.7 percentage points more likely to become Republican themselves upon entering the electorate. The effects are of similar magnitude for Democratic partisanship and turnout. These exposure effects are primarily driven by teenage years, and they persist but decay after the first election. They reflect both state-level factors and factors varying at a smaller scale such as peer effects.
    JEL: D72 P0
    Date: 2023–10
  26. By: Acuna, Julio; Balza, Lenin; Gómez Parra, Nicolás
    Abstract: To study the causal impact of oil royalties on human capital, we exploit quasi-experimental variation arising from a law in Ecuador that transfers resources to municipalities regardless of their oil-producing status. We find that royalties increase the likelihood of students completing primary and secondary education. Students reaching high school are also more likely to pass and excel on the exit exam. Furthermore, schools are more likely to remain open, increase their size, and become more road-accessible. However, the likelihood of students pursuing higher education decreases as they face steeper opportunity costs when labor demand increases.
    JEL: I25 O13 O15 Q32 Q35
    Date: 2022–05
  27. By: Lisa Sieger (Chair for Management Sciences and Energy Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen)
    Abstract: Energy efficiency and renewable energy are key pillars of the energy transition that is high on the political agenda of governments in face of the climate crisis. Germany, however, is underperforming in its emissions reduction goals. There is still room for improvement, especially in the building sector – but this is often associated with high upfront investments. There is evidence that the market for energy efficiency in the German rental housing market is inefficient, resulting in underinvestment. To investigate these inefficiencies, this study estimates a hedonic pricing model combined with a total-cost-of-use perspective based on the observation of warm rents for a sample of 3, 903, 473 rental offers from 2014 to 2021. In a “perfect world†, the effect of the energy performance score given in energy performance certificates as an indicator of energy consumption or demand, respectively, is expected to be zero, as corresponding costs are already included in the warm rent. If the coefficient is significantly different from zero, it can be interpreted as measure for inefficiencies. The study further investigates whether disclosing heating costs in real estate advertisements could lead to a better appreciation of energy efficiency in the rental market and thus contribute to closing the information gap. Results show that the market for energy efficiency is indeed inefficient; however, the disclosure of full information can help to overcome these inefficiencies. These results lead to several important policy implications.
    Keywords: energy efficiency, rental housing market, information asymmetry, hedonic pricing
    JEL: C31 Q40 R21 R31
    Date: 2023–10
  28. By: Campi, Mercedes; Dueñas, Marco; Ciarli, Tommaso
    Abstract: Do creative industries have positive spillovers for the local economy in middle-income countries, for instance by attracting creative workers who benefit entrepreneurs and workers in other industries? Creative industries are considered highly innovative and productive and several studies in high-income countries have revealed such spillovers. However, the institutional and economic settings in middle-income countries may not be as conducive to them. Creative industries represented between 2.7 and 3.3 percent of Colombian employment in 2008 and 2017. Using granular employment data, we study their agglomeration patterns between 2008 and 2017. We nd agglomeration in the largest cities (Bogota, Medellin, and Cartagena) and in a few smaller cities. Using methodologies from prior studies yields a positive relationship between creative industry agglomeration and employment in non-creative services industries. However, after controlling for endogeneity using a shift-share instrumental variable approach, we nd, contrary to analyses of high-income countries, no signicant impact of an increase of creative industries employment on employment growth in other industries.
    Keywords: agglomerations;employment growth;Colombia
    JEL: Z18 O10 D62
    Date: 2022–02
  29. By: Corina Boar; Elisa Giannone
    Abstract: This paper introduces consumption segregation, a new margin of residential segregation, and examines its patterns, causes, and discusses its aggregate consequences. We use new longitudinal and highly granular data to measure consumption segregation in the United States and document that it is high but relatively stable over the past 15 years, with substantial regional variation. We find that income segregation plays a more prominent role than other forms of segregation in driving consumption segregation, mainly due to the inability to smooth shocks to income. We illustrate a new mechanism through which, in the presence of social comparisons, consumption segregation can exacerbate wealth inequality.
    JEL: E20 R2
    Date: 2023–09
  30. By: Martins, Pedro S. (Nova School of Business and Economics)
    Abstract: Does employers' association (EA) membership affect wages? Such effects, positive or negative, could follow from increased productivity, employer collusion, or other channels. We analyse this question drawing on matched employer-employee panel data, including time-varying EA affiliation and worker mobility. We consider the case of private schools in Portugal, 2010-2020, and its single EA, and develop a method to define the sector's scope. We find that school fixed effects reduce the EA wage premium considerably. However, such positive premium remains, especially when focusing on the key occupation of the industry (teachers) and when considering EA firms that follow firm-specific (non-EA) collective agreements. We also find that there is an EA wage premium for schools that join the EA, while the EA premium does not disappear for schools that leave the EA.
    Keywords: employers organisations, worker mobility, social dialogue
    JEL: J53 J62 L40
    Date: 2023–09
  31. By: Manuel Adelino; David T. Robinson
    Abstract: Heating, cooling, and powering the residential housing stock accounts for about one-fifth of total annual greenhouse gas emissions in the US. Home size is a key determinant of energy intensity. The average newly built single-family home is 50% larger than in the 1950s. Using distinct identification strategies spanning the last four decades of banking history, we show that more abundant credit increases average new home size. It also facilitates more construction but does not produce offsetting increases in home quality or durability. These results highlight potential environmental costs associated with monetary policies that expand access to credit.
    JEL: G30 Q43 R21 R31
    Date: 2023–10
  32. By: Ome, Alejandro; Pérez, Javier
    Abstract: We study the impact of natural resource royalties on educational outcomes in Colombia. We analyze a reform enacted in 2012 that made the distribution of these royalties more equitable. Before the reform, most royalties were assigned to the regions where the natural resources were exploited; with the reform non-producing regions started to receive royalties. We estimate the impact of the reform on regions that most benefited from it, using the international price of oil as an instrument in a difference-in-differences framework. We found positive impacts on enrollment in primary, secondary, and high schools, but no conclusive evidence on academic achievement at any of these levels.
    Keywords: royalties;public finance;instrumental variables;transformación productiva;Extractivas;región andina;Andea Region
    JEL: C26 H52 H72 O13 O54
    Date: 2022–06
  33. By: Sarah Quincy
    Abstract: This paper identifies how bank branching benefited local economies during the Great Depression. Using archival data and narrative evidence, I show how Bank of America's branch network in 1930s California created an internal capital market to diversify away local liquidity shortfalls, allowing it to maintain 49 percent higher credit growth from 1929 to 1933 than competing banking offices. The bank's presence caused smaller city property value contractions and stronger recoveries through 1940. Linked individual data show the bank’s proximity hastened the transition away from agricultural employment and towards human capital-intensive sectors in the 1930s, generating industrialization and higher wages.
    JEL: E44 G01 G21 N22 R23
    Date: 2023–10
  34. By: Brian A. Jacob; Michael D. Ricks
    Abstract: This paper presents the first evidence of how students make career technical education (CTE) course-taking decisions. Among the universe of Michigan high-schoolers we find large disparities in CTE access and participation by gender, race, and income. We decompose participation gaps between supply (access) and demand (preferences) with a simple discrete choice model. We find that student preferences for CTE content drive participation gaps by gender, inequities in access drive gaps by income, and school-level supply and demand factors combine to create the gaps by race. Policy simulations highlight the importance of accessible CTE delivery models within comprehensive high schools.
    JEL: I0 I20 I21 I28 J01 J08
    Date: 2023–10
  35. By: Rostislav, Kirill (Ростислав, Кирилл) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Rusakov, Dmitry (Русаков, Дмитрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Saprykin, Matvey (Сапрыкин, Матвей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The paper presents a brief review of some aspects of existing theoretical and empirical research on transportation and transport networks development problems. Despite the fact that in general this direction is well developed in the research literature, in practice some issues require more detailed consideration, in particular, approaches to modeling the transportation of various goods over a multilayer network, representation of transportation and other costs, setting the criteria of optimality of network development. In addition, this paper considers cost functions and variables determining them, the influence of borders on the transport system, optimal routing and its paradoxes.
    Keywords: Spatial Models, Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion, Travel Time, Safety and Accidents
    JEL: C31 R41
    Date: 2023–10–11
  36. By: Pearse Haley; Grace Meagher; Sarah Stein
    Abstract: From a federal policy standpoint, the plan to stabilize renter households through the COVID-19 pandemic hinged on two actions: the implementation of a nationwide eviction moratorium and the disbursement of emergency rental assistance. This plan relied on four key expectations. First, a federal eviction moratorium was expected to prevent the displacement of renters during the pandemic. Second, it was anticipated that rental relief funds needed to quickly reach households in need to offset growing arrearages. Third, it was assumed that working members of renter households would resume their previous jobs after a relatively quick disruption. Finally, rent was expected to remain relatively stable over the course of the pandemic in order for households to resume covering payments. In this paper we explore a variety of data to assess how these expectations played out. We focus on six southeastern states as our study area, finding that across these states eviction moratoria appear to have been less effective while Emergency Rental Assistance disbursement experienced delays. We also look at the dynamic between local job and housing markets to discuss places within these states where deeper employment losses, slower recovery, and steeper rent increases produced a particularly difficult environment for lower-wage renters to stay in place during and after the pandemic.
    Keywords: Affordable housing; Emergency Rental Assistance; eviction; rental instability; COVID-19; CARES Act; CDC moratorium; Unemployment Insurance; rent; rent increases; housing cost; employment loss; economic recovery; housing data; employment data; data limitations
    JEL: H73 H76 H77 H83 I3 R1 R2 R3 R5
    Date: 2023–10–17
  37. By: Blimpo, Moussa P.; Pugatch, Todd
    Abstract: The persistently high employment share of the informal sector makes entrepreneurship a necessity for youth in many developing countries. We exploit exogenous variation in the implementation of Rwanda's entrepreneurship education reform in secondary schools to evaluate its effect on student economic outcomes up to three years after graduation. Using a randomized controlled trial, we evaluated a three-year intensive training for entrepreneurship teachers, finding pedagogical changes as intended and increased entrepreneurial activity among students. In this paper, we tracked students following graduation and found that increased entrepreneurship persisted one year later, in 2019. Students from treated schools were six percentage points more likely to be entrepreneurs, an increase of 19 percent over the control mean. However, gains in entrepreneurship faded after three years, in 2021. Employment was six percentage points lower in the treatment group. By some measures, income and profits were lower in the treatment group, with no robust differences in these outcomes overall. Lower incomes and profits were concentrated among marginal students induced into entrepreneurship by the program. Youth entrepreneurship programs may therefore steer some participants away from their comparative advantage. Nonetheless, the program increased university enrollment, suggesting the potential for higher long run returns.
    Keywords: entrepreneurship education, youth employment, secondary school, pedagogy, randomized controlled trials, Rwanda
    JEL: I25 I26 I28 J24 O12 O15
    Date: 2023
  38. By: Lyashok, Victor (Ляшок, Виктор) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Mkrtchyan, Nikita (Мкртчян, Никита) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Florinskaya, Yuliya (Флоринская, Юлия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The outflow of the population of young working age from the regions of the Far East and the Far North is a serious constraint on the economic and social development of these regions. Unfavorable climatic working and living conditions, underdeveloped economic and social infrastructure, distance from development centers, relatively low wages and lack of career and personal prospects - these factors encourage a significant part of young people to leave the region of the Far East and Far North. The objectives of the study are to answer the following questions: • What is the scale of departure of young people from the Far Eastern Federal District and the Far North? • What are the reasons for their departure? • How reliable are disposal volume statistics? • Is it possible for at least some of the young people to return to the regions of origin and under what conditions? The study was conducted on the basis of Rosstat statistics on the volume and structure of internal migration in Russia for 2011-2020, the results of a sample survey of the labor force in 2029-2022, as well as Rosstat reports “Socio-economic situation in Russia” in 2018-2022. The study shows that published statistics underestimate the real scale of the outflow of young workers from the regions of the Far East and Far North due to the so-called “auto-return” process. The North and Far East are losing young people during migration exchanges with large and major cities in the European part of the country. Large cities of the North and Far East compensate for the loss due to the influx from the periphery of these same regions. Retaining young people in the labor markets of the regions where they were born is only possible if there is an influx of investment into the regional economy and social sphere, and this process should not have the character of a short-term campaign, but be a long-term guarantee for several generations of workers.
    Keywords: young working age population, labor market, workplaces, salary, working career, migration, auto-return, Far East, Far North and equated areas
    JEL: R23 J6
    Date: 2023–10–11
  39. By: Giulia Lang (Department of Social Sciences and Economics, Sapienza University of Rome)
    Abstract: As a result of the management of the health emergency linked to the spread of the Coronavirus, the debate on the Inner Areas has been enriched with new insights: there is a renewed interest in these territories both in the world of academic research and in public debate. The pandemic phenomenon has led to the emergence of alternative paths to the logic of agglomeration and has led some scholars to theorize that in the future it will be possible a return to the small villages. In this regard, it's worth highlighting that today many administrations of small villages - thanks to the spread of certain processes also facilitated by the pandemic - want to offer services in a new way, different from the city model, through innovative practices. In addition, in recent years a further line of reflection has developed on the relationship between possible rebirths of inner areas and migrations. It is an interesting and at times controversial line of research that attempts to understand the delicate interaction between small places, that were marginalised for too long compared to the great global processes, and immigration. Through various documentary sources, the research aims to provide new insights into the Italian inner areas and the identification of possible case studies. This paper aims to better understand the phenomena related to small villages and their potential for growth.
    Keywords: Inner areas, Migration, Southern Italy, Calabria, Local development
    JEL: P25 R23 R38 O35
    Date: 2023–05
  40. By: Bocquier, Philippe (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg); Cha’Ngom, Narcisse (LISER); Docquier, Frédéric (LISER); Machado, Joël (LISER)
    Abstract: Existing empirical literature provides converging evidence that selective emigration enhances human capital accumulation in the world's poorest countries. However, the within-country distribution of such brain gain effects has received limited attention. Focusing on Senegal, we provide evidence that the brain gain mechanism primarily benefits the wealthiest regions that are internationally connected and have better access to education. Conversely, human capital responses are negligible in regions lacking international connectivity, and even negative in better connected regions with inadequate educational opportunities. These results extend to internal migration, implying that highly vulnerable populations are trapped in the least developed areas.
    Keywords: human capital, migration, selection, brain drain, brain gain, Senegal
    JEL: J24 J61 O15 R23 E24
    Date: 2023–10
  41. By: Billio, Monica; Casarin, Roberto; Costola, Michele; Veggente, Veronica
    Abstract: Measuring and reducing energy consumption constitutes a crucial concern in public policies aimed at mitigating global warming. The real estate sector faces the challenge of enhancing building efficiency, where insights from experts play a pivotal role in the evaluation process. This research employs a machine learning approach to analyze expert opinions, seeking to extract the key determinants influencing potential residential building efficiency and establishing an efficient prediction framework. The study leverages open Energy Performance Certificate databases from two countries with distinct latitudes, namely the UK and Italy, to investigate whether enhancing energy efficiency necessitates different intervention approaches. The findings reveal the existence of non-linear relationships between efficiency and building characteristics, which cannot be captured by conventional linear modeling frameworks. By offering insights into the determinants of residential building efficiency, this study provides guidance to policymakers and stakeholders in formulating effective and sustainable strategies for energy efficiency improvement.
    Keywords: Energy efficiency, Energy Performance Certificate, Machine learning, Tree-based models, big data
    JEL: C10 C53 C50
    Date: 2023
  42. By: Deryabin, Andrey (Дерябин, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Popov, Alexander (Попов, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The study examines the practices of teaching data literacy for adolescents. The intersections of data literacy with statistical literacy, quantitative thinking, computational skills, and Data Science are explored. A competence model for data literacy is introduced with key competency clusters – technical, scientific, and social – aligned with the components of a scientific practice and data mining research cycle. The conclusions underscore the importance of students engaging in the exploration and modeling of socio-humanitarian data as part of their learning process. This content, firstly, aligns most closely with the sociocognitive specificity of the age, secondly, it lays the foundations for students’ interdisciplinary understanding of contemporary phenomena, which is in demand across a wide range of professions. Future directions encompass refining the data literacy model, creating methodological resources for developing data literacy within education systems, and providing pedagogical guidance and materials for educators adopting data literacy techniques.
    Keywords: data literacy, curriculum, data science, data science, machine learning, socio-humanitarian knowledge, educational programs, competency-based approach to learning
    Date: 2023–09–11
  43. By: Thomas Benison (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Julia Talbot-Jones (Victoria University of Wellington)
    Abstract: With urbanisation and climate change placing increasing pressure on water security around the world, demand-side mechanisms, such as metering and pricing, have emerged as core components of urban water management. Yet the impacts of metering and pricing on water production and consumption in Aotearoa New Zealand are not well understood. This constrains the ability of decision-makers to make targeted wellbeing improvements for the communities they serve. In this paper, we endeavour to estimate the impact of metering and pricing on urban water consumption in Aotearoa. We collect data on residential water production and consumption from 67 local councils and provide comparisons of water use across regions and over time, with particular attention given to Tauranga and Wellington. Our experience reveals the extent of the drinking water data gaps in urban areas in Aotearoa, raising questions about how evidence is being used to inform the design of urban water policy in Aotearoa and issues of public accountability.
    Keywords: Data gaps; demand management; drinking water; metering; policy; pricing
    JEL: Q21 Q25 Q28
    Date: 2023–10
  44. By: Joakim A. Weill
    Abstract: This paper examines the provision of official flood risk information in the United States and its distributional impacts on residential flood insurance take-up. Assembling new data on all flood maps produced after Hurricane Katrina, I first document that updated maps decreased the number of properties zoned in high-risk floodplains and incorrectly omitted five million properties that should have been rezoned inside these areas. Removals and omissions disproportionately occurred in neighborhoods with more Black and Hispanic residents. Leveraging the staggered timing of map updates, I estimate they decreased flood insurance take-up and exacerbated racial disparities in insurance coverage. These effects are driven by beliefs about risks and regulatory constraints. Correcting flood maps could increase welfare by $20 billion annually, but past updates decreased welfare due to distorted risk and price signals.
    Keywords: Applied Econometrics; Climate Adaptation; Disaster Insurance; Environmental Inequalities; Flood Risk; Information Provision
    JEL: G52 R52 H40 Q58 R14 D40 Q54
    Date: 2023–10–11
  45. By: David R. DeRemer (Nazarbayev University, Graduate School of Business); Yelzhas Kadyr (KU Leuven, Faculteit Economie en Bedrijfswetenschappen, Vlaams Instituut voor Economie en Samenleving (VIVES)); Aigerim Yergabulova (Nazarbayev University, Graduate School of Business)
    Abstract: Kazakhstan was the top destination country for Russian immigrants in 2022, a year when Russian emigration sharply increased due to new international sanctions and war mobilization. The circumstances offer a rare opportunity to explore how a large sudden skill-abundant immigration within an economic union affects firm employment dynamics for a middle-income receiving country. Kazakhstan and Russia share the world's longest continuous land border, so immigration effects are regionally dispersed rather than concentrated solely in cities, and Kazakhstan offers business registers data to explore firm-level employment dynamics. Absent fine regional data on immigration flows, our empirical approach uses a pre-war share of the Russian population in 215 districts of Kazakhstan as a reduced-form instrument for the treatment of Russian immigration. We find no pre-war trends in firm employment growth related to the Russian district population shares. Using difference-in-differences estimation, we find large effects of 2022 Russian immigration on the employment growth for Kazakhstan's incumbent firms in more affected regions. The employment growth is larger for small firms, young foreign-owned firms, older domestic firms, and ICT firms, and results are robust to the exclusion or inclusion of Kazakhstan's two major cities of Almaty and Astana. We estimate that Kazakhstan's regions, excluding the two major cities, would have experienced a private sector employment fall of 86, 500 in 2022 rather than the actual increase of 21, 500 if Russian immigration flows had not occurred.
    Keywords: gender pay inequality, occupations, foreign ownership, Kazakhstan
    Date: 2023–09
  46. By: Remi Jedwab (George Washington University); Thomas Esch (DLR-DFD); Klaus Deininger (World Bank); Daniela Palacios-Lopez (DLR-DFD)
    Abstract: The developing world has built structures on an unprecedented scale to accommodate population growth, demographic change, and urbanisation. The horizontal and vertical structuring of the building stock resulting from this "megatrend construction" strongly influences urban and rural poverty, sustainability, resilience, and quality of life. However, due to data constraints, little is known about how and why 3D building patterns vary globally, and in the developing world in particular. This study uncovers novel facts on global 3D building patterns as a result of outward and upward preferences in construction and investigates their relation to the development process. To this end, novel ground-breaking high-resolution data on the area, height, and volume of the global building stock is combined with a unique series of analyses undertaken at different spatial domains. The results show that building stocks per capita increase convexly with income, but that income only explains two-thirds of international volume differences. Additionally, while building upwards systematically drives international volume differences, low-rise buildings, not high-rise buildings, still dominate construction patterns. Also, megatrend construction is not just a phenomenon of megacities, as small settlements account for the largest share of global building volume. Finally, the presented analyses on construction preferences help assess construction needs by providing crowding measures and forecasting volume requirements in major developing economies.
    Keywords: World in 3D; Construction; Urbanization; Vertical and Horizontal Expansion; Development Process; Global Socio-Economic Development; Housing; Poverty; Sustainability
    Date: 2023–09
  47. By: Ivan Badinski; Amy Finkelstein; Matthew Gentzkow; Peter Hull
    Abstract: We study the role of physicians in driving geographic variation of US healthcare utilization. We estimate a model that separates variation in average utilization of Medicare beneficiaries due to physicians, non-physician supply side factors, and patient demand. The model is identified by migration of patients and physicians across areas, as well as by variation in within-area matching. We find that physicians vary greatly in the intensity with which they treat otherwise similar patients, and that at least a third of geographic differences in healthcare utilization can be explained by differences in average physician treatment intensity. Conservatively, physicians are three times as important as non-physician supply-side factors in explaining geographic variation. Around three-fifths of physicians’ role comes from differences across areas in physician practice styles within the same specialty, while the other two-fifths reflects differences across areas in physician specialty mix.
    JEL: H51 I1 I11
    Date: 2023–10
  48. By: Yacine Boujija; Marie Connolly; Xavier St-Denis
    Abstract: Despite initiatives to promote equality of opportunity, the reproduction of inequalities from generation to generation has worsened in Quebec in recent decades. Youth who grew up in a less advantaged environment are more likely to remain at the bottom of the ladder as adults. We know that education is a key factor in social mobility. A CIRANO study looks at the issue from another angle, that of geographic mobility. The authors follow the career paths of nearly 1.4 million young people and show that the lack of social mobility affects more strongly young people who grew up outside major cities, particularly those who still live there in their early thirties. This study is the first to examine the influence of geographic mobility on intergenerational income transmission in Quebec. It is based on Statistics Canada’s Intergenerational Income Database (IID), which has a longitudinal structure that tracks children to late stages of adult life. The data come from the Canada Revenue Agency’s tax data files and provide access to parent and child income information from 1978 to 2016. In terms of geographic mobility, analyses show that the deterioration of social mobility in Quebec is mainly the result of two phenomena: on the one hand, the deterioration of the socio-economic status of young people residing outside major urban centres at age 16 and having grown up in a family at the bottom of the income distribution, and improving the situation of young people from the same regions who grew up in families at the top of the income distribution. → Read the full report The authors will present the analyses and results of their study on October 30, 2023. Further details will be available soon. Despite initiatives to promote equality of opportunity, the reproduction of inequalities from generation to generation has worsened in Quebec in recent decades. Youth who grew up in a less advantaged environment are more likely to remain at the bottom of the ladder as adults. We know that education is a key factor in social mobility. A CIRANO study looks at the issue from another angle, that of geographic mobility. The authors follow the career paths of nearly 1.4 million young people and show that the lack of social mobility affects more strongly young people who grew up outside major cities, particularly those who still live there in their early thirties. This study is the first to examine the influence of geographic mobility on intergenerational income transmission in Quebec. It is based on Statistics Canada’s Intergenerational Income Database (IID), which has a longitudinal structure that tracks children to late stages of adult life. The data come from the Canada Revenue Agency’s tax data files and provide access to parent and child income information from 1978 to 2016. In terms of geographic mobility, analyses show that the deterioration of social mobility in Quebec is mainly the result of two phenomena: on the one hand, the deterioration of the socio-economic status of young people residing outside major urban centres at age 16 and having grown up in a family at the bottom of the income distribution, and improving the situation of young people from the same regions who grew up in families at the top of the income distribution. → Read the full report The authors will present the analyses and results of their study on October 30, 2023. Further details will be available soon.
    Keywords: Intergenerational transmission of income, internal migration, rural regions, urban regions, Quebec, inequalities, human capital, Intergenerational transmission of income, internal migration, rural regions, urban regions, Quebec, inequalities, human capital
    Date: 2023–10–02
  49. By: José Victor C. Giarola (Maastricht University); Olivier Marie (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Frank Cörvers (Maastricht University); Hans Schmeets (Maastricht University)
    Abstract: We study the impact of a policy change in the Netherlands that reduced preferential tax treatment duration for high-skilled migrants arriving from specific countries in certain years. Utilizing comprehensive tax and population data, we document substantial tax-induced emigration responses, primarily driven by the top 1% of earners. Highly mobile individuals within the top 5% also emigrate sooner, particularly to competing countries offering tax-breaks to attract skilled workers. Crucially, we uncover no change in mobility behavior among lower-earning workers. The increased tax receipts from lower-income individuals who remain offset the loss from fleeing high earners, making the policy fiscally cost-neutral.
    Keywords: Taxation, immigration, labor income, Netherlands.
    JEL: F22 H31 J61
    Date: 2023–10–12
  50. By: Colunga L. Fernando; Torre Cepeda Leonardo
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the contribution of supply and demand shocks, and labor market shocks, to the evolution of regional production and inflation of manufactured goods in Mexico within the context of the pandemic. Under the identification of a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregressive (SBVAR) model with sign restrictions, it is found that since 2021, external demand shocks increased their contribution relative to local shocks in explaining the growth of manufactured goods production in all regions except the South; meanwhile, external supply shocks increased their positive contribution in explaining inflationary pressures across all regions. On the other hand, from 2022 onwards, labor supply shocks have contributed to the behavior of the production and inflation of manufactured goods in the Northern and North-Central regions.
    Keywords: External shocks;Inflation;Manufacturing;SVAR
    JEL: E31 F41 R11
    Date: 2023–10
  51. By: Green, David A. (University of British Columbia, Vancouver); Liu, Huju (Statistics Canada); Ostrovsky, Yuri (Statistics Canada); Picot, Garnett (Institute for Research on Public Policy, and Research and Evaluation Branch, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada)
    Abstract: Firm ownership is a dening feature of immigrant adaptation: 41% of immigrants own a firm at some point in their first 10 years post-arrival. We use Canadian data linking immigrant arrival records with individual and firm tax data to examine the process of entering firm ownership for immigrants. Higher immigrant firm ownership rates are mainly due to nonincorporated firm ownership, which looks like a last resort. Human capital plays no role in the opening of preferable, incorporated firms. Immigrants are not more entrepreneurial in terms of opening incorporated firms with employees, and standard policy levers appear to have limited effects.
    Keywords: immigration, entrepreneurs, human capital
    JEL: J61
    Date: 2023–10
  52. By: Anthony A. DeFusco; Charles G. Nathanson; Michael Reher
    Abstract: We show how firms scheduled to roll over debt in a crisis strategically reduce operations, regardless of their liquidity constraints. Our research design utilizes contractual features of commercial mortgages that generate as-good-as-random variation in whether debt is scheduled to mature during a crisis or just before. Once the crisis begins, borrowers cut labor expenses and produce less output at properties collateralizing loans coming due during the crisis, especially high-leverage loans. These effects hold with owner fixed-effects, consistent with strategic default and not liquidity constraints as the dominant mechanism. A parsimonious model of debt overhang with rollover risk rationalizes these results.
    JEL: G01 G3 R3
    Date: 2023–10

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