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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Parker, Madeleine E.G. MPA; Chapple, Karen PhD; Park, Yuju MCP |
| Abstract: | This report highlights risk and prioritization factors for housing developments with expiring affordability protections, focused on preserving transit-accessible affordable housing. It presents a regional framework for identifying and preserving subsidized affordable housing in the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) region (Los Angeles, Imperial, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ventura counties). First, we analyze data from the California Housing Partnership (CHPC) and the National Housing Preservation Database (NHPD) to understand risk factors for expiring housing units, and design a prioritization tool for entities in the region to use when prioritizing developments to focus preservation and anti-displacement efforts. Second, we highlight affordable housing preservation policy solutions and characteristics unique to the Southern California context. Third, we draw on the strategies and experiences of other jurisdictions in the United States with experience strategizing around affordable housing preservation efforts to present key lessons and takeaways. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Housing, affordability, public transit, development, land use, regional planning, policy analysis, risk analysis, community land trusts |
| Date: | 2023–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt4g71n0ks&r=ure |
| By: | Francisco Nobre (University of Surrey); Diogo Jardim Goncalves (University of Bristol); Ronize Cruz (University of Coimbra) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we make use of the rapid expansion of short-term rentals in Portugal, based on a policy change in 2014, to estimate the effects on house prices. Using a novel dataset consisting of property transaction data, from 2010 to 2017, for the metropolitan areas of Lisbon and Porto, we causally identify the impact of these reforms through a two-way fixed effects model, at the quarterly level, where we control for property specific characteristics and location and time fixed effects. The evidence suggests that a one-unit increment in the number of local lodging establishments results in a 0.17% increase in the value of transaction, which is ensured by a set of robustness exercises. Stronger effects are found for properties with four or more bedrooms, owned by citizens outside of the European Union, in the municipality of Porto and at the upper quantiles. We also document a decrease in the number of transactions of new buildings and a positive effect on the value of commercial properties. |
| JEL: | R12 R23 R30 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sur:surrec:1023&r=ure |
| By: | Jesse Matheson (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S1 4DT, UK); Brendon McConnell (University of Southampton, UK); James Rockey (University of Birmingham, UK); Argyris Sakalis (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S1 4DT, UK) |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of the working from home (WFH) shift on neighborhood-level burglary rates, employing detailed street-level crime data and a neighborhood WFH measure. We find a one standard deviation increase in WFH (9.5pp) leads to a persistent 4% drop in burglaries. A spatial search model identifies two deterrence channels: occupancy, as burglars avoid occupied houses, and “eyes on the street”. We provide evidence supporting both channels. Despite crime displacement to low WFH areas offseting 30% of the burglary reduction, a hedonic pricing model reveals significant willingness to pay for high WFH areas, especially those with high ex-ante burglary risk. |
| Keywords: | Working From Home, Property Crime, Spatial Spillovers, Hedonic House Price Models |
| JEL: | H75 K42 R20 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2023020&r=ure |
| By: | Sam Sims (UCL Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities, University College London); Harry Fletcher-Wood (Ambition Institute); Thomas Godfrey-Faussett (Ambition Institute); Peps Mccrea (Ambition Institute); Stefanie Meliss (Ambition Institute) |
| Abstract: | Teacher education/training often incorporates observable examples of focal teaching practices - models. Yet, there is little causal evidence on the benefits of models or how best to design them. We used a classroom simulator experiment to test the effects of video models on trainee teachers' skills, knowledge, and self-efficacy in relation to using retrieval practice at the end of a primary school science unit. Results showed that models improved participants' skills, but not their knowledge or self-efficacy. Adding annotations to the models had no additional benefit. Incorporating models in initial teacher training can help new teachers make better use of evidence-based teaching practices. |
| Keywords: | teachers, professional development, models |
| JEL: | I20 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucl:cepeow:23-09&r=ure |
| By: | Pape Sakho (Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar, Sénégal); Gaele Lesteven (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Momar Diongue (Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar, Sénégal); Pascal Pochet (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | [Short excerpt] Africa's major cities are growing at a rapid pace. In Dakar, Senegal's capital, for instance, the population has almost doubled in 20 years, reaching 4 million inhabitants today. But in most metropolises, like Dakar, planning isn't keeping up with the expansion. One example of this is the city's transport system. Public transport plays a fundamental role in providing access to any city. However, in many cities, it's lacking, particularly in areas of urban sprawl. This worsens the quality of life for people living in these areas, where there is a shortage of jobs and amenities. |
| Keywords: | Dakar -- Senegal, Daily urban mobility, Clandestine taxi, Informal transport, Transport system |
| Date: | 2023–02–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04023754&r=ure |
| By: | Pedro Carneiro (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Yyannú Cruz-Aguayo (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Francesca Salvati (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Norbert Schady (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of classroom rank on children’s learning using a unique experiment from Ecuador. Within each school, students were randomly assigned to classrooms in every grade between kindergarten and 6th grade. Students with the same ability can have different classroom ranks because of the (random) peer composition of their classroom. Children with higher beginning-of-grade classroom rank have significantly higher test scores at the end of that grade. The impact of classroom rank is larger for younger children and grows over time. Higher classroom rank also improves executive function, child happiness, and teacher perceptions of student ability. |
| Date: | 2023–08–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:cwp19/23&r=ure |
| By: | Zemlyanskii Dmitriy (Землянский, Дмитрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Chuzhenkova, Valeria (Чуженькова, Валерия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Abdullaev, Alexander (Абдуллаев, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kalinovskiy, Leonid (Калиновский, Леонид) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kulikov, Vladimir (Куликов, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Medvednikova, Darina (Медведникова, Дарина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Shampurov, Ivan (Шампуров, Иван) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The study examines debt situation in 189 urban districts of Russia with more than 100 thousand inhabitants in 2015-2020 and assesses key factors determining level of budget debt. The relevance of the study is established by the fact that an overwhelming majority of large urban municipalities in Russia currently have a significant budget debt. The public debt burden significantly limits the cities’ ability to plan and finance urban projects and therefore becomes a key constraint on their development at the present stage. At the same time, the scale and dynamics of municipal debt in Russian cities remain poorly researched. The goal of the study was to identify key factors determining formation of the debt burden in the 189 largest urban districts in Russia and to assess the impact of the debt burden on the level and dynamics of their socio-economic development. The following tasks were completed: analyzing the level of municipal debt burden in the largest cities in 2015-2020 and creating a classification of large cities by the scale and dynamics of debt; determining key factors of formation of the debt burden in large urban districts and calculating their impact, as well as forecasting the debt situation of the largest centers. The analysis was carried out on the basis of the municipal debt volume and structure indicators, collected from the official portals of local administrations and data on the execution of budgets of urban districts of the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat). The following key research methods, among others, were used: statistical and economic analysis, mapping and GIS analysis, infographic construction methods and comparative analysis. The results of the study showed that although the country's large cities are characterized on average by a relatively favorable level of debt burden, significant differences in the debt situation between cities remain. Only 37 large urban districts had no debt at the end of the study period, while about 1/3 (53 out of 189) had a debt burden exceeding 50%, and 15% of cities are approaching its critical level. It is proved that at the present stage, municipal debt is not a real tool for the implementation of urban development projects, but is mainly directed to cover the budget deficit and fulfill basic social responsibilities by the end of the fiscal year. It has been revealed that the greatest influence on the debt situation in large cities is exerted by the factor of the city's population (the level of debt burden increases with population growth), as well as the factor of having a regional capital status (regional capitals have higher debt). The factors of the budgetary and financial situation in municipality, as well as economic factors (apart from several cities) resulted to be insignificant. The absence of high correlations of the debt burden of large urban districts with key indicators of the financial and socio-economic situation suggests a high influence of other institutional factors. It is proved that an increased level of debt burden leads to a decline in migration appeal and investment activity in large cities. The growth of debt slows down the rate of wages increase. The forecast of the debt situation in large cities showed that if the current trends persist in the next three years, even a greater deterioration in the debt situation of the country's largest centers can be expected, as well as an increase in their differentiation by debt. The measures planned for introduction in 2022 in order to limit the volume of municipal debt will have little effect and will not result in a significant reduction in the debt burden of cities. All in all, the findings of the study form a negative forecast of the development of Russian large cities for the coming years. The current situation warrants an urgent need to revise the fiscal policy and the power distribution system at the local government level towards expanding the financial and managerial capabilities of municipalities. |
| Keywords: | Municipal debt, municipal borrowings, municipal budget, debt obligations, debt burden, factors of debt, forecasting debt, cities of Russia, urban districts of the Russian Federation, urban development |
| JEL: | H63 H68 H72 R12 R51 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w2022097&r=ure |
| By: | Arpit Gupta; Candy Martinez; Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh |
| Abstract: | The conversion of brown office buildings to green apartments can contribute towards a solution to three pressing issues: oversupply of office in a hybrid-and-remote-work world, shortage of housing, and excessive greenhouse gas emissions. We propose a set of criteria to identify commercial office properties that are are physically suitable for conversion, yielding about 11% of all office buildings across the U.S. We present a pro-forma real estate model that identifies parameters under which these conversions are financially viable. We highlight several policy levers available to federal, state, and local governments that could accelerate the conversion, and that may be necessary should policymakers desire the creation of affordable housing. We highlight the role that the Inflation Reduction Act could play. |
| JEL: | G1 Q51 Q54 Q58 R21 R23 R32 R38 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31530&r=ure |
| By: | Malakhov, Vladimir (Малахов, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Simon, Mark (Симон, Марк) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Letnyakov, Denis (Летняков, Денис) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Motin, Aleksandr (Мотин, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Jurina, Kristina (Юрина, Кристина) (State Academic University for the Humanities); Pralkova, Marina (Пралькова, Марина) (The Moscow School of Social and Economic Sciences); Vasilchenko, Aleksey (Васильченко, Алексей) (The Moscow School of Social and Economic Sciences); Kandaurova, Elena (Кандаурова, Елена) (The Moscow School of Social and Economic Sciences) |
| Abstract: | In recent years, the focus of urban studies has been gradually shifting from the issue of “ethnic enclaves” to the infrastructure created by migrants. The problem of territorially closed migrant communities in big cities does not lose its relevance, however, the settlement factor ceases to be a universal explanatory model for analyzing the dynamics of social integration. The attention of researchers is increasingly attracted by market, medical, information and entertainment infrastructures, through which members of migrant communities are involved in building new social ties without rigid reduction to their place of residence. In Russia, just as in Europe, migrants accumulate various resources through labor and neighborhood relations, as well as through participation in public organizations. However, how these relations are localized in the Russian cities and what institutions mediate them remains poorly understood. This work sheds light on the specifics of the post-Soviet context through comparison with the situation in Western European megacities. |
| Keywords: | migrant spaces, infrastructure, public and non-public, ethnic entrepreneurship, migrant settlement |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220110&r=ure |
| By: | Suss, Joel; Kemeny, Thomas; Connor, Dylan Shane |
| Abstract: | Wealth inequality has been sharply rising in the United States and across many other high-income countries. Due to a lack of data, we know little about how this trend has unfolded across locations within countries. Investigating this subnational geography of wealth is crucial, as from one generation to the next, wealth powerfully shapes opportunity and disadvantage across individuals and communities. Using machine-learning-based imputation to link newly assembled national historical surveys conducted by the U.S. Federal Reserve to population survey microdata, the data presented in this paper addresses this gap. The Geographic Wealth Inequality Database (“GEOWEALTH”) provides the first estimates of the level and distribution of wealth at various geographical scales within the United States from 1960 to 2020. The GEOWEALTH database enables new lines of investigation into the contribution of spatial wealth disparities to major societal challenges including wealth concentration, spatial income inequality, social mobility, housing unaffordability, and political polarization. |
| JEL: | J1 N0 |
| Date: | 2023–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:119980&r=ure |
| By: | Dee, Thomas Sean (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | The broad and substantial educational harm caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has motivated large federal, state, and local investments in academic recovery. However, the success of these efforts depends in part on students’ regular school attendance. Using newly collected data, I show that the rate of chronic absenteeism among U.S. public-school students grew substantially as students returned to in-person instruction. Specifically, between the 2018-19 and 2021-22 school years, the share of students chronically absent grew by 13.5 percentage points—a 91-percent increase that implies an additional 6.5 million students are now chronically absent. Enrollment loss, COVID-19 case rates, and school masking policies are not associated with the state-level growth in chronic absenteeism. This suggests the sharp rise in chronic absenteeism reflects other important barriers to learning (e.g., declining youth mental health, academic disengagement) that merit further scrutiny and policy responses. |
| Date: | 2023–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:bfg3p&r=ure |
| By: | Alex Coad (Waseda University); Clemens Domnick (European Commission - JRC); Pietro Santoleri (European Commission - JRC); Stjepan Srhoj (University of Split) |
| Abstract: | Policy-makers and scholars often assume that a higher incidence of high-growth firms (HGFs) is synonymous with vibrant regional economic dynamics, and that HGF shares are persistent over time as Entrepreneurial Ecosystems (EEs) have slowly-changing features. In this paper we test these hypotheses, which are deeply rooted in the EE literature. We draw upon Eurostat data for up to 20 countries over the period 2008-2020 and study HGF shares in NUTS-3 regions in Europe. Analysis of regional rankings yields the puzzling finding that the leading EEs in Europe, apparently, are in places such as southern Spain and southern Italy. These places would not normally be considered Europe’s foremost entrepreneurial hotspots. Additional results do not provide strong support for the hypothesis that more developed regions feature higher HGF shares. We do find evidence consistent with HGF shares displaying persistency over time. However, we show that more developed regions do not have higher persistence in their HGF shares, and that the strength in persistence does not increase across the HGFs distribution, which does not support path-dependency as the main mechanism behind the observed persistence. Overall, we call for a more nuanced interpretation of both regional HGF shares and the EEs literature. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurial Ecosystems, High-Growth Firms, Persistence, Firm Growth, Entrepreneurship Policy, Regional Policy |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:wpaper:202302&r=ure |
| By: | Koen Frenken; Frank Neffke; Alje van Dam |
| Abstract: | The capability framework in evolutionary economic geography views regional economic development as a process of related diversification through the acquisition of capabilities that render a regional economy more complex. Using this framework, we synthesize seven theoretical notions that hitherto remained rather disconnected: relatedness, complementarity, variety, complexity, diversification, agents of structural change, and related variety. We formulate a constructive critique of the capability framework, relaxing the overly restrictive assumption that the presence of capabilities in a region is both necessary and sufficient for complex products to be produced in a region. Instead, we argue that the complexity of a regional economy depends primarily on the institutions that support firms to coordinate production in complex value chains within and across regions. The augmented framework allows for closer integration of evolutionary and relational approaches in economic geography, providing new links between the literatures on clusters, innovation systems and global production networks. |
| Keywords: | diversification, relatedness, complexity, institution, value chain |
| JEL: | B52 O1 O43 R1 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2318&r=ure |
| By: | Karagiannaki, Eleni |
| Abstract: | Using data from Understanding Society, this paper investigates for the first time the scale and the drivers of ethnic disparities in wealth across the net worth distribution (until recently assessed at the mean or the median). The analysis reveals that apart from people in the Indian ethnic group, all other ethnic minority groups have substantially less net worth than the White British group across the distribution and are less likely to hold high-return assets and more likely to hold financial debt. The picture in terms of housing wealth is similar: the Indian ethnic group comes out as the group with the higher housing wealth than any other ethnic group. By contrast, in terms of net financial wealth all ethnic minority groups including the Indian ethnic group have substantially less wealth (including very high levels of indebtedness) than the White British group. The wealth disadvantage of ethnic minority groups with lower net worth holdings relative to the White British group, is reduced but remains substantial across the distribution, even after accounting for differences in observable characteristics. The scale of the differences that is explained by observable characteristics varies across the distribution and across groups but their effect is generally stronger at below the median. Analysis by wealth component shows that observable characteristics explain a larger share of the ethnic gaps in financial wealth than the ethnic gaps in housing wealth. This is especially the case at below the median financial wealth levels where the financial wealth disadvantage of most ethnic groups, is fully explained by differences in observable characteristics. By contrast, differences in observable characteristics have a negligible effect in explaining the lower net housing wealth of ethnic minority groups with lower housing wealth across the housing wealth distribution, suggesting that ethnic minority groups face unobserved disadvantages, which translate into lower housing wealth. By contrast, differences in observable characteristics fully explain the housing wealth advantage of people in the Indian ethnic group. |
| Keywords: | ethnic minority group; wealth; ousing; assets; debt; inequality; decomposition |
| JEL: | D31 E21 E24 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:119885&r=ure |
| By: | Adam Scavette |
| Abstract: | New Jersey voters approved legalized gambling for Atlantic City in a 1976 referendum, making it the second state after Nevada in 1931. The state explicitly leveraged the city's regional monopoly, which it held from 1978 through 1992, on casinos east of the Mississippi River as an economic development strategy to revive the blighted seaside resort town. The literature on the economic development effects of casinos suggests that sparsely populated areas without nearby competing gambling venues tend to benefit the most. Using a difference-in-differences approach, I model the economic impact of casino legalization on the Atlantic City Metropolitan Area (Atlantic County, NJ) across five-, ten-, and fifteen-year treatment horizons. I find a significant positive impact of legalized casinos on personal income and housing prices for only the five-year treatment horizon, and significant positive impacts for payroll employment and wages across all three treatment horizons. |
| Keywords: | casinoes; monopoly; economic development |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedrwp:96399&r=ure |
| By: | Zemlyanskiy, Dmitriy (Землянский, Дмитрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Chuzhenkova, Valeria (Чуженькова, Валерия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Abdullaev, Alexander (Абдуллаев, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kalinovskiy, Leonid (Калиновский, Леонид) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kulikov, Vladimir (Куликов, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Medvednikova, Darina (Медведникова, Дарина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Shampurov, Ivan (Шампуров, Иван) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The research work is dedicated to a comprehensive analysis of the socio-economic development of Russian cities in 2015-2019 and reflects both the current level of territorial development and the dynamics of key parameters for the period analyzed. Russian cities regularly become the subject of discussion among representatives of government authorities and the scientific community, as one of the key factors of the socio-economic development of the country as a whole. Contemporary urban scientists usually limit their studies of the current state and peculiarities of social and economic development to just a single municipality or small groups of cities. The goal of this study is to determine the main trends in the socio-economic development of Russian cities between 2015 and 2019. To achieve this goal, the following objectives were formulated: setting up a database of key socio-economic indicators of Russian cities (in the period from 2015 to 2019); a systemic review of socioeconomic development trends of Russian cities; identification of main problems and resources of socio-economic development of cities; classification of the cities by the current socio-economic development level. The input data for the research work is taken from the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation for Municipalities (Database of Indicators of Municipalities, Rosstat), with data from ministries and departments, open sources, including analytical reports, geoinformation systems data, etc. The following research methods are used: analysis of literature and open sources, statistical analysis, econometric and GIS analysis, qualitative comparative analysis, mapping. The results are as follows: an overview of trends in the socio-economic development of Russian cities in 2010- 2020 is developed; approaches and methods for assessing the socio-economic development of Russian cities are studied; a database of indicators of socio-economic development of cities for the period 2015-2019 is set up, and an analysis of the structure and features of the database is carried out; the features of socio-economic development of cities depending on population, geographical location, administrative status are studied; the key problems of socio-economic development of cities at the present stage are considered; the classification of Russian cities by socio-economic development level is proposed; a forecast of socio-economic development trends of Russian cities in the short run is made; the Atlas “Socio-economic development of Russian cities in 2015-2019” is compiled. According to the results, the key trends in the socio-economic development of cities are as follows: the preservation of substantial differentiation in terms of socio-economic development; increasing hyper-centralization of population and resources in metropolitan agglomerations; accelerating depopulation of cities; polarization of the settlement system; reduction of the population incomes and city budgets. The most important problems of socio-economic development of cities at the present stage are as follows: a shortage of demographic and migration resources for quantitative growth; slow post-industrial transformation together with a shortage of investment for the development of large and medium-sized enterprises; low level of budgetary independence and a shortage of budget funds for the implementation of development projects. The Atlas of Cities, compiled by the authors based on the results of the work, provides a detailed illustration of trends and problems, supported by an analysis of 40 key statistical properties of the socio-economic development of Russian cities. The Atlas materials will be useful in guiding competent government decisions regarding urban development. They will be helpful to executive authorities of various levels, local stakeholders, and representatives of the expert and a wide range of experts and analysts. |
| Keywords: | Cities, urban agglomerations, economic development, economic growth, urban infrastructure, social development, human capital, urban environment, urban development index |
| Date: | 2021–11–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220157&r=ure |
| By: | Chia-Jung Tsai (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); R. Gordon Rinderknecht (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Emilio Zagheni (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we examined the role media plays in moderating the relationship between refugee influx and anti-immigration attitudes across German regions. Specifically, we focused on the salience of refugees in local news media in each region, and we explored the extent to which such attention heightened the connection between increasing refugees in an area and growth in anti-immigration views. We conducted this analysis using data from the German Socio-Economic-Panel (2011-2017), asylum applications data from the Federal Office of Statistics, and the Gdelt database, which is a real-time news database. Using a mixed effect approach, we found that the effect of refugee influx on anti-immigration attitudes across regions was moderated as expected by the salience of refugees in local news, albeit in former East Germany but not in former West Germany. We contend that this difference between East and West Germany relates to East Germany’s relatively stronger ethnonationalist attitudes. Based on this, we conclude that refugee salience in media plays an essential, albeit inconsistent, role in characterizing changes in population composition as threatening, and thus in triggering anti-immigration attitudes. |
| Keywords: | Germany, attitude, immigration, media, refugees |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-035&r=ure |
| By: | Rostislav, Kirill (Ростислав, Кирилл) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ponomarev, Yury (Пономарев, Юрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The transportation system is less variable than settlement patterns or the allocation of economic activity. This necessitates checking the optimality of spending on the development of transportation networks. Previous work in this area proposed criteria for the optimal development of transport networks for a single mode of transportation. The study demonstrates how, with the help of carrying capacity, a multilayer network can be “collapsed” to a representation convenient for working with the usual tools of spatial general equilibrium models. The possibilities of the new approach have been tested on the example of the Kaliningrad oblast. It was found that the distribution of the carrying capacity between the urban districts of the Kaliningrad region is not optimal: the carrying capacity of the roads in the latitudinal direction is insufficient. It follows from the model that new investments in road construction should bring the carrying capacity of roads between municipalities closer to such levels that the ratios of carrying capacity between pairs of adjacent territories correspond to those in the model with a zero lower limit of the optimal carrying capacity value. |
| Date: | 2021–11–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220131&r=ure |
| By: | Boucher, Vincent (Université Laval); Rendall, Michelle (Monash University); Ushchev, Philip (Higher School of Economics (HSE)); Zenou, Yves (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | There is substantial empirical evidence showing that peer effects matter in many activities. The workhorse model in empirical work on peer effects is the linear-in-means (LIM) model, whereby it is assumed that agents are linearly affected by the mean action of their peers. We develop a new general model of peer effects that relaxes the linear assumption of the best-reply functions and the mean peer behavior and that encompasses the spillover, conformist model, and LIM model as special cases. Then, using data on adolescent activities in the U.S., we structurally estimate this model. We find that for many activities, individuals do not behave according to the LIM model. We run some counterfactual policies and show that imposing the mean action as an individual social norm is misleading and leads to incorrect policy implications. |
| Keywords: | peer effects, spillovers, conformism, policies |
| JEL: | C31 D04 D85 Z13 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16354&r=ure |
| By: | Murray, Cameron (The University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | • After eight years of rents rising slower than other consumer prices, rents have now begun rising more quickly. • If this is a rental crisis today, then almost every year for the past two centuries has been a rental crisis. • The rental price adjustments being observed in Australia and globally in 2022 and 2023 reflect the normal operation of housing markets. • Cheaper housing is usually achieved by public provision of subsidised rental or ownership options, as it was historically in Australia, and is today in many places. • Outside of these effective options, outcomes in private rental markets can be marginally improved by smoothing out sudden changes in rents. • This can be done by regulating how quickly rents can be increased in a period, usually at a rate linked to a local price index, such as CPI inflation plus 3% points. • To avoid tenants being evicted in order to raise rents above this limit, protections can be enacted to enable tenants to stay, even at the end of a fixed-term lease, by limiting evictions to only being allowed for three reasons: 1. The landlord selling 2. The landlord moving into the home 3. Major renovations being undertaken. • Claims that supply will fix rents, or stories about landlords selling if rents are regulated in any way, should be ignored. These stories are told by groups whose financial interests align with higher rents, not lower rents. |
| Date: | 2023–07–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:6mctg&r=ure |
| By: | Johannes Gessner; Wolfgang Habla; Ulrich J. Wagner |
| Abstract: | Under pressure to reduce CO2 emissions, companies are beginning to replace subsidized company car schemes with so-called mobility budgets that employees can spend on leisure and commuting trips, using a broad range of transport modes. Given their novelty, little is known about how mobility budgets should be designed to encourage sustainable choices. Since prices play a limited role in this subsidized setting, our study focuses on behavioral interventions. In a field experiment with 341 employees of a large German company, we test whether social comparisons, either in isolation or in combination with a climate-related moral appeal, can change the use of different means of transportation. We find strong evidence for a reduction in car-related mobility in response to the combined treatment, which is driven by changes in taxi and ride-sharing services. This is accompanied by substitution towards micromobility, i.e., transport modes such as shared e-scooters or bikes, but not towards public transport. We do not find any effects of the social comparison alone. Our results demonstrate that small, norm-based nudges can change transportation behavior, albeit for a limited time. |
| Keywords: | mobility behavior, randomized experiment, nudging, descriptive norm, injunc- tive norm, social norms, moral appeal, habit formation |
| JEL: | C93 D04 D91 L91 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2023_451&r=ure |
| By: | Jorge Guzman; Fiona Murray; Scott Stern; Heidi L. Williams |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the establishment of major U.S. Federal programs seeking to harness the potential of regional innovation ecosystems, we assess the promise and challenges of place-based innovation policy interventions. Relative to traditional research grants, place-based innovation policy interventions are not directed toward a specific research project but rather aim to reshape interactions among researchers and other stakeholders within a given geographic location. The most recent such policy - the NSF “Engines” program - is designed to enhance the productivity and impact of the investments made within a given regional innovation ecosystem. The impact of such an intervention depends on whether, in its implementation, it induces change in the behavior of individuals and the ways in which knowledge is distributed and translated within that ecosystem. While this logic is straightforward, from it follows an important insight: innovation ecosystem interventions – Engines -- are more likely to succeed when they account for the current state of a given regional ecosystem (latent capacities, current bottlenecks, and economic and institutional constraints) and when they involve extended commitments by multiple stakeholders within that ecosystem. We synthesize the logic, key dependencies, and opportunities for real-time assessment and course correction for these place-based innovation policy interventions. |
| JEL: | D78 L2 O3 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31541&r=ure |
| By: | Patrick T. Harker |
| Abstract: | Philadelphia Fed President and CEO Patrick Harker delivered remarks at the Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center Members’ Meeting in Philadelphia. Harker spoke about the effects that monetary policy is having on the housing market and about the impact of shelter inflation on the overall economy. The toll of persistently high inflation “is falling most heavily on those least able to bear it, ” Harker said, noting that “the Fed has been working to slow the economy modestly and bring it more in line with supply.” Harker reiterated the Fed’s commitment to its 2 percent inflation target and underscored the fact that the “economy isn’t the Federal Reserve, or interest rates, or numbers in a data report. The economy is people.” |
| Date: | 2023–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpsp:96040&r=ure |
| By: | Lomteva, Elena (Ломтева, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Bedareva, Larisa (Бедарева, Лариса) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Polushkina, Elena (Полушкина, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Polushkina, Anna (Полушкина, Анна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | This scientific report presents the findings of a study of regional systems of secondary vocational education during the forced transition to distance learning. The large-scale lockdown of vocational educational institutions during the pandemic and the need to switch to distance learning as soon as possible revealed a number of problems: distance learning technologies are not used in eight regions of the Russian Federation to train either skilled workers and employees or secondary level specialists; e-learning and distance learning in the Russian Federation are used by no more than 20% of secondary vocational education institutions; teachers and industrial training supervisors do not possess the necessary skills to integrate digital technologies into the education process. The paper considers the directions of transformation of regional systems of secondary vocational education associated with the introduction of distance learning technologies and an increase in the enrollment. The study is based on an analysis of statistical data describing the current status of regional secondary vocational education systems, including statistical reporting forms. The work is important for the regional vocational education systems and is the basis for the implementing new principles of building regional vocational education systems and the development of new social partnership mechanisms ensuring active involvement of labor market participants in vocational education. |
| Date: | 2021–11–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220141&r=ure |
| By: | Heidmann, Laure; Neirac, Lucie; Andreu, Sandra; Conceiçao, Pierre; Eteve, Yann; Fabre, Marianne; Vourc'h, Ronan |
| Abstract: | In March 2020, schools in France closed for two months due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using data from the national assessments, we measure the impact of this unprecedented crisis on the learning of 800, 000 students who were in first grade during the school closures. We show that students' learning progress dropped after the lockdown by 10% standard deviation from a normal year in mathematics, and even more dramatically in French with a decrease of 15% standard deviation. The crisis exacerbated pre-existing inequalities since students from disadvantaged schools were the most affected. We also find that the effects are particularly strong in domains where the school plays a fundamental role in reducing social inequalities in early learning, namely reading and writing. |
| Date: | 2023–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qn9a8&r=ure |
| By: | Keisuke Kondo (Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry) |
| Abstract: | This presentation introduces the new community-contributed command spgen, which computes spatially lagged variables in Stata. Spatial econometric analysis has gained attention from researchers and policymakers, and demand for its use is continuously growing among Stata users. The Sp commands are provided on Stata version 15 or later and facilitate handling of spatial data and estimation of spatial econometric models. The newly developed command spgen provides the extended function of the spgenerate command in the Sp commands to deal with a large-sized spatial dataset, such as mesh data and grid square statistics. The computation of spatially lagged variables requires a spatial weight matrix, which mathematically describes the spatially dependent structures in the matrix. However, when the spatial weight matrix is too large for the computer specs, the matrix operations may be unable to calculate spatially lagged variables in the Sp commands. The spgen command deals with this problem and provides some interesting examples of spatial data analysis. |
| Date: | 2023–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:usug23:09&r=ure |
| By: | Loginov, Dmitriy (Логинов, Дмитрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Semionova, Elena (Семионова, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Tokareva, Galina (Токарева, Галина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Yakovlev, Ivan (Яковлев, Иван) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The uneven territorial and population development of the educational infrastructure and the labor market, the differentiation of educational aspirations and resource capabilities of different social groups, the possibility of enrolment to educational organizations in different regions of Russia based on the examination results explain the relevance of researching the scale, motives, directions and restrictions of educational migration of the Russian school graduates. It is important to find out what groups of modern youth and their families develop the attitudes towards educational migration, what resources are required to implement these attitudes, which directions of actual and potential educational migration in the context of regions and types of settlements there are. Revealing stable routes of educational migration of the Russian youth is an urgent research problem. The main goal of this work is to determine the directions and factors of the planned educational migration of the 9th and 11th grade schoolchildren for receiving secondary vocational and higher education, on the basis of sociological data. The objectives of the study are, in particular, to identify the grounds for demand by households with schoolchildren in graduation grades to receive secondary vocational and higher education outside the settlement or region of current residence; identification of the motives for obtaining education outside the settlement or region of current residence; analysis of the educational trajectories of schoolchildren in graduation grades involving educational migration. The methodology of sociological research involves the use of a combined quantitative and qualitative toolkit, carried out using specially developed field documents. The main findings of the study are as follows: it was discovered that the parents are divided into two groups of comparable size – those inclined towards educational migration (56%) and those planning to receive vocational education in the settlement of residence; the composition of these groups varied significantly depending on the settlement types and educational aspirations; to a large extent, when planning to receive secondary vocational education and higher education, the younger generation repeats the educational trajectory of their parents, reproducing the family status. The research results can be used in the interests of public education authorities to assess the consequences of educational migration for the socio-economic development of the regions of the Russian Federation. |
| Keywords: | educational migration, educational strategies of schoolchildren in the 9th and 11th grades, vocational education, higher education |
| JEL: | I21 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220106&r=ure |
| By: | Stéphane Gauthier (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Fanny Henriet (Paris School of Economics) |
| Date: | 2023–08–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:23/22&r=ure |
| By: | Bingley, Paul (VIVE - The Danish Centre for Applied Social Science); Cappellari, Lorenzo (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Ovidi, Marco (Catholic University Milan) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the stages of childhood at which parental job loss is most consequential for their child's education. Using Danish administrative data linking parents experiencing plant closures to their children, we compare end-of-school outcomes to matched peers and to closures hitting after school completion age. Parental job loss disproportionally reduces test taking, scores, and high school enrolment among children exposed during infancy (age 0-1). Effects are largest for low-income families and low-achieving children. The causal chain from job loss to education likely works through reduced family income. Maternal time investment partially offsets the effect of reduced income. |
| Keywords: | parental labor market shocks, intergenerational mobility, child development |
| JEL: | J13 D10 I24 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16367&r=ure |
| By: | Statodubrovskaya, Irina (Стародубровская, Ирина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sitkevich, Daniil (Ситкевич, Даниил) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Relevance: Migration processes largely determine the face of the modern world. Their results lead to serious problems of intercultural communication, and successful approaches of solving them have not yet been developed. Different attempts both to pursue a policy of assimilation and to introduce the principles of multiculturalism often do not have a positive effect. Subject of research: Adaptation strategies of Northern Caucasian migrants in St. Petersburg. The purpose of this work is to analyze the processes of adaptation of Northern Caucasian migrants to the social and cultural environment of the metropolis, as well as to identify factors affecting its success. The scientific novelty of the preprint will consist in the description of foreign cultural internal migration in Russia from the point of view of various migration theories. |
| Keywords: | Urbanization, migration, adaptation, Northern Caucasus, St. Petersburg |
| JEL: | J15 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220114&r=ure |
| By: | Christophe Muller (Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques); Ahmed Yousuf (Aix Marseille Université Économiques) |
| Abstract: | Using daily and monthly level nightlight products from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Black Marble suite (NASA and Administration (2199)) and extrapolating hartal-related violence data with a keyword search from the geocoded Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) database, we investigate the impact of such events on economic activity in Bangladesh. We focus our investigation first at daily level and secondly at monthly level. At daily level, we utilize autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) estimation to factor in the deeply autoregressive nature of daily nightlights, to identify immediate (within-day) effects from hartals, individually for key subdistricts. At the monthly level, to factor in the emergent consequent spatial dependence, we analyze countrywide dynamics using a split-panel jackknife bias-corrected maximum-likelihood estimations to see overall effects from lagged hartal event counts. At daily level, over 2012–21, in the capital Dhaka, we find that daily hartals have an immediate statistically significant impact of -0.9 percent on daily nightlights. However, this effect does not hold across all subdistricts and only does so for a select number of subdistricts. At the monthly level, we find evidence of statistically significant countrywide effects of 1.6 percent. |
| Date: | 2023–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:fsug23:06&r=ure |
| By: | Nikulin, Alexander (Никулин, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The article aims at identifying the main employment types of foreign migrants in the Russian countryside. The authors describe different employment types of migrants in the Russian agriculture and in a number of foreign countries; they also conducted a quantitative and qualitative study of the Russian agricultural sector potential for attracting foreign labor migrants, identified the regional features of labor migration to rural areas, including in the historical perspective; analyzed the types of informal economic and social relations of migrant workers with local rural communities. |
| Date: | 2021–11–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220134&r=ure |
| By: | Bennhoff, Frederik H. (University of Zurich); García, Jorge Luis (Clemson University); Leaf, Duncan Ermini (University of Southern California) |
| Abstract: | We demonstrate the social efficiency of investing in high-quality early childhood education using newly collected data from the HighScope Perry Preschool Project. The data analyzed are the longest follow-up of any randomized early childhood education program. Annual observations of participant outcomes up to midlife allow us to provide a cost-benefit analysis without relying on forecasts. Adult outcomes on the participants' children and siblings allow us to quantify spillover benefits. The program generates a benefit-cost ratio of 6.0 (p-value = 0.03). Spillover benefits increase this ratio to 7.5 (p-value = 0.00). |
| Keywords: | cost-benefit analysis, early childhood education, intergenerational mobility, intergenerational program evaluation, life-cycle benefits, spillover effects |
| JEL: | J13 I28 C93 H43 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16370&r=ure |
| By: | Beverly Lapham; Daniel Teeter |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we provide evidence of frictions associated with trade in goods and services among Canadian provinces. We examine empirical relationships between sector- and industry-level trade flows and trading frictions associated with intra-provincial trade, inter-provincial trade, and international trade. We also develop a novel method for estimating the magnitude of differences across provinces, industries, and time in relative inter-provincial trade frictions. We find that the ranking of these relative inter- provincial frictions across provinces and the degree of regional dispersion varies considerably across the sectors and industries we study. In addition, we find considerably more geographic dispersion in the frictions that provinces face as sellers of goods and services than those which they face in their roles as buyers. Finally, we evaluate quantitative associations between two Canadian inter-provincial regional trade agreements and inter-provincial trade flows for a variety of industries. We document considerable variation across sectors and manufacturing sub-industries in our estimates of the relationships between these provincial trade agreements and trade flows. For example, trade agreements signed among western provinces around 2010 are positively associated with trade flows in the mining sector, textiles, petroleum, and transportation equipment, but are negatively associated with trade flows in agricultural goods and manufactured food products. |
| Keywords: | Intra-regional and inter-regional trade frictions, Trade agreements, Structural gravity |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:wpaper:1507&r=ure |
| By: | David Guerrero (AME-SPLOTT - Systèmes Productifs, Logistique, Organisation des Transports et Travail - Université Gustave Eiffel); Jean-Claude Thill (UNC - University of North Carolina [Charlotte] - UNC - University of North Carolina System) |
| Abstract: | This chapter analyses port competition from a hinterland perspective. It focuses on a set of countries of Central Europe for which there is not a clear geographical advantage of one port over another. Such contestable hinterlands seem particularly relevant for an appreciation of factors that can tip the balance in favor of certain port alternatives, minimizing the statistical noise induced by distance effects. With the expansion of the European Union towards the East and the subsequent development of East-West transport links, such as the Rhein-Main-Danube canal, increased competition between ports can be expected. This paper tests this idea for different industries, by using a spatial interaction model on data on container shipments to the United States. Sailing frequency is used as a measure of port attractiveness and truck drive time as geographical separation. We also identify preferential ties between source countries and ports and barrier effects in the organization of hinterlands. Against expectations, the results highlight the path dependence in the North-South organization of hinterlands, with a persistent split between Switzerland, mostly oriented towards Rotterdam and Antwerp, and the other countries of Central Europe, historically tied to German ports, while Mediterranean ports are largely disregarded. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04166277&r=ure |
| By: | Armin Schäfer (Johannes Gutenberg-University Mainz, Germany) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between the election performance of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and voter turnout in the German federal elections. It analyses data from a variety of sources, including data from the 299 constituencies, data from 979 neighbourhoods in 30 cities, and two individual-level datasets, including panel data and the post-election cross-section of the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES). The paper finds that the AfD was successful in mobilising former non-voters in the 2017 federal election, but there was no further mobilisation in the 2021 election. The conclusion is that populist parties are unlikely to succeed in increasing voter turnout in the long run. |
| Date: | 2023–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jgu:wpaper:2312&r=ure |
| By: | Klyachko, Tatiana (Клячко, Татьяна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Fedotov, Alexander (Федотов, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kovalenko, Alexey (Коваленко, Алексей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Blinova, Tatiana (Блинова, Татьяна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the correspondence between the structure of training personnel with higher education and the prospective sectoral structure of the subjects of the federation. Comparison of the structure of personnel training in the context of integrated multidisciplinary groups with the prospective structure of regional economies in the context of types of economic activity revealed that the disproportion in provision of needs of regional economies with specialists of relevant specialization in education is observed in 76 subjects of the Russian Federation; moreover, for 11 multidisciplinary training areas, this disproportion is noted in more than a quarter of the subjects of the federation. This scientific work shows a new trend in the development of the system of additional professional education – a faster growth in the volume of professional retraining programs with the assignment of a new qualification, which may indicate the growing role of the additional professional education system, to compensate the shortage of personnel with higher education through the retraining of specialists with unpopular qualifications in the labor market, and giving them new competencies that meet the demands of the labor market. Based on the results of the analysis, measures are proposed to align the training structure of personnel with higher education to the future structure of regional economies. The material was prepared based on the results of research work on the research topics "11.1 Analysis of the effectiveness of existing networks of public and private universities in the Russian regions in the context of the rapid development of distance learning technologies" and "11.4 Research of long-term development trends in the system of continuing professional education ", carried out within the framework of the state assignment to RANEPA. |
| Keywords: | CONTINUING PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION, ADDITIONAL PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION, LONG-TERM DEVELOPMENT, STAFF DEMAND, STAFF WITH HIGHER EDUCATION, STRUCTURE OF STAFF TRAINING, STRUCTURE OF GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT |
| Date: | 2021–11–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220140&r=ure |
| By: | Riku Laine (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Mikko Aaltonen; Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Pekka Martikainen (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Life-course criminology has recently begun to focus on the sociohistorical context, with the use of multi-cohort studies. However, those studies have mostly concentrated on offending or aggregate crime rates. Desistance research, in turn, has largely overlooked the impact of the broader sociohistorical context. Based on recent work on the sociohistorical context and offending, we propose that context can also shape the desistance process. We examined the employment, housing, and marriages of Finnish first-time prisoners released between 1995 and 2014 (N = 23 358) until 2019. We quantified the link between selected macro-level indicators and these three outcomes using applied age-period-cohort-models. The results showed that the outcomes evolved in separate ways post-release. Employment and marriage became more common, but only employment showed distinct periodical changes. The probability of living in housing remained relatively stable. A higher level of national unemployment was associated with all outcomes. The association between background factors and the outcomes changed depending on release year. Post-prison societal integration should not be measured by recidivism alone. Desistance studies should address the societal context when comparing different times or countries. Early studies may require replication if the associations between demographic factors and desistance outcomes are subject to change. |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-037&r=ure |
| By: | Reanos, Miguel Tovar; Curtis, John; Pillai, Arya; Meier, David |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp751&r=ure |