nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2023‒08‒28
sixty-one papers chosen by
Steve Ross, University of Connecticut

  1. Urban and Regional Migration Estimates: Will Your City Recover from the Pandemic? By Stephan D. Whitaker
  2. The Effect of School Zone on Housing Prices: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment in New Zealand By Peng Sun; Jeremy Clark; Tom Coupé
  3. Single Family Schoolyards: Residential Zoning and School Segregation. By Oklobdzija, Stan Nguyen
  4. Do Remote Workers Deter Neighborhood Crime? Evidence from the Rise of Working from Home By Jesse Matheson; Brendon McConnell; James Rockey; Argyris Sakalis
  5. Does homeownership reduce crime? A radical housing reform from the UK By Disney, Richard; Gathergood, John; Machin, Stephen; Sandi, Matteo
  6. Eviction and Poverty in American Cities By Robert Collinson; John Eric Humphries; Nicholas Mader; Davin Reed; Daniel Tannenbaum; Winnie van Dijk
  8. Spatial wage inequality in North America and Western Europe: Changes between and within local labour markets 1975-2019 By Bauluz, Luis; Bukowski, P.; Fransham, M.; Lee, A.; López Forero, M.; Novokmet, Filip; Breau, S.; Lee, Neil; Malgouyres, Clément; Schularick, Moritz; Verdugo, Gregory
  9. The effect of classroom rank on learning throughout elementary school: experimental evidence from Ecuador By Pedro Carneiro; Yyannú Cruz-Aguayo; Norbert Schady; Francesca Salvati
  10. Household Mobility, Networks, and Gentrification of Minority Neighborhoods in the US By Fernando V. Ferreira; Jeanna H. Kenney; Benjamin Smith
  11. The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on KPS Student Enrollment and NWEA Test Scores By Randall W. Eberts
  12. KEY TRENDS IN THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF CITIES-REGIONAL CENTERS OF THE FAR EASTERN FEDERAL DISTRICT By Zemlyanskii, Dmitriy (Землянский, Дмитрий); Chuzhenkova, Valeria (Чуженькова, Валерия); Abdullaev, Alexander (Абдуллаев, Александр); Kalinovskiy, Leonid (Калиновский, Леонид); Medvednikova, Darina (Медведникова, Дарина)
  13. Patterns in the mobility and ownership of private cars and alternative transport modes: the focus on Warsaw and Poland By Shahriar Akhavan; Maciej Grzenda; Anna Nicińska; Joanna Rachubik; Satia Rożynek; Jakub Zawieska; Grzegorz Kula
  14. Land Use Efficiency Tool Improvements May Help Governments Meet Sustainability Targets Equitably By Nguyen, Peter; Barajas, Jesus M
  15. Black empowerment and white mobilization: The effects of the Voting Rights Act By Andrea Bernini; Giovanni Facchini; Marco Tabellini; Cecilia Testa
  16. Long-Run Effects of Super Low Fertility on Housing Markets By Jangyoun Lee; Hyunduk Suh
  17. Raise your voice! Activism and peer effects in online social networks By Alejandra Agustina Martínez
  18. Migration and trust: Evidence on assimilation from internal migrants By Diego Marino Fages
  19. Customer Discrimination and Ethnic Team Composition By Rinne, Ulf; Sonnabend, Hendrik; Wolters, Leonie
  20. Incorporating Short Data into Large Mixed-Frequency VARs for Regional Nowcasting By Gary Koop; Stuart McIntyre; James Mitchell; Aubrey Poon; Ping Wu
  21. Information campaigns and migration perceptions By Erminia Florio
  22. Minimum Tax Rates and Tax Competition: Evidence from Property Tax Limits in Finland By Teemu Lyytikäinen
  23. Aggregation of Information and Communications Industry and Self-organization Simulation Using an Agent-based Model (Japanese) By NAKAMURA Ryohei; NAGAMUNE Takeshi; HAYASHI Syuusei
  24. Permanent Residency and Refugee Immigrants’ Skill Investment By Jacob Nielsen Arendt; Christian Dustmann; Hyejin Ku
  25. Does Sending Teachers Abroad Enhance Their Quality and Ability? By NISHIHATA Masaya; TAHARA Hidenori; KOBAYASHI Yohei
  26. Entry and Exit of Firms in the First Phase of Regional Revitalization: Revolving door economy and creative destruction (Japanese) By NAKAMURA Ryohei
  27. The Geographic Distribution of the Foreign-born and Japanese Populations (2005-2022) (Japanese) By NAKAMURA Ryohei
  28. The increase in partisan segregation in the United States By Jacob R. Brown; Enrico Cantoni; Ryan D. Enos; Vincent Pons; Emilie Sartre
  29. Rewarding allegiance: Political alignment and fiscal outcomes in local government By Christa N. Brunnschweiler; Samuel K. Obeng
  30. Understanding Rationality and Disagreement in House Price Expectations By Zigang Li; Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh; Wang Renxuan
  31. Nighttime Light Pollution and Economic Activities: A Spatio-Temporal Model with Common Factors for US Counties By Bresson, Georges; Etienne, Jean-Michel; Lacroix, Guy
  32. Job Displacement and Migrant Labor Market Assimilation By Balgova, Maria; Illing, Hannah
  33. Social Connections and COVID-19 Vaccination By Basu, Arnab K.; Chau, Nancy H.; Firsin, Oleg
  34. Why is the Roy-Borjas model unable to predict international migrant selection on education? Evidence from urban and rural Mexico By Leopold, Stefan; Ruhose, Jens; Wiederhold, Simon
  35. Cities looking for waste heat: The dilemmas of energy and industry nexuses in French metropolitan areas By Antoine Fontaine; Laurence Rocher
  36. Education and Later-Life Mortality: Evidence from a School Reform in Japan By Masuda, Kazuya; Shigeoka, Hitoshi
  37. Place-Based Energy Inequality for Ethnicities in Nepal By Rabindra Nepal; Rohan Best; Madeline Taylor
  38. Local Economic Growth and Infant Mortality By Andreas Kammerlander; Günther G. Schulze
  39. Causal Effects in Matching Mechanisms with Strategically Reported Preferences By Marinho Bertanha; Margaux Luflade; Ismael Mourifi\'e
  40. Fast but multi-partisan: Bursts of communication increase opinion diversity in the temporal Deffuant model By Fatemeh Zarei; Yerali Gandica; Luis Enrique Correa Rocha
  41. Is Self-Employment for Migrants? Evidence from Italy By Brunetti, Marianna; Zaiceva, Anzelika
  42. Air Pollution and Education Investment By Cheng, Zhiming; Guo, Liwen; Tani, Massimiliano; Cook, Sarah
  43. Socio-spatial Inequalities in a Context of "Great Economic Wealth". Case study of neighbourhoods of Luxembourg City By Natalia Zdanowska
  44. Temperature variability and long-run economic development By Linsenmeier, Manuel
  45. Creative Reallocation of Curbs, Streets, Sidewalks Accelerated by the Pandemic May be Here to Stay By Shaheen, Susan PhD; Cohen, Adam; Broader, Jacquelyn
  46. Measuring productivity in networks: A game-theoretic approach By Nizar Allouch; Luis A.Guardiola; A. Meca
  47. When Your Bootstraps Are Not Enough: How Demand and Supply Interact to Generate Learning in Settings of Extreme Poverty By Alex Eble; Maya Escueta
  48. Hidden Havens: State and Local Governments as Tax Havens? By David R. Agrawal
  49. Changes in Risk Appreciation, and Short Memory of House Buyers When the Market is Hot, a Case Study of Christchurch, New Zealand By Emil Mendoza; Fabian Dunker; Marco Reale
  50. Economic Analysis of Smart Roadside Infrastructure Sensors for Connected and Automated Mobility By Laurent Kloeker; Gregor Joeken; Lutz Eckstein
  51. Effects of E-commerce on Local Labor Markets By Bauer, Anahid; Fernández Guerrico, Sofía
  52. Is the mobility of inhabitants of deprived neighbourhoods specific? Evidence from France (2008 - 2019) By Thibault Isambourg; Louafi Bouzouina; Dominique Mignot
  53. Functional Differencing in Networks By St\'ephane Bonhomme; Kevin Dano
  54. Elements of a theory of local community By Bellanca, Nicolò
  55. International Migrants and Indigenous Residents in the Russian Labor Market: An Empirical Analysis Based on Labor Force Survey Data By Kartseva Marina A. (Карцева Марина); Florinskaya Julia F. (Флоринская Юлия)
  56. Entrepreneurship in China's Structural Transitions: Network Expansion and Overhang By Ruochen Dai; Dilip Mookherjee; Kaivan Munshi; Xiaobo Zhang
  57. Commercial Electricity Demand Modeling: Do Regional Differences Matter? By Jeyhun Mikayilov; Abdulelah Darandary
  58. Understanding the Impact of In-Home Biodiversity on Urban Residents’ Perception of Biodiversity Loss: A Bayesian Mindsponge Framework Approach By Duong, Thi Minh Phuong
  59. Housing, Household Debt, and the Business Cycle: An Application to China and Korea By Amir Sufi
  60. Working from Home, Worker Sorting and Development By David Atkin; Antoinette Schoar; Sumit Shinde
  61. School commuting, carbon footprint and sociospatial implications By Thibault Isambourg; Emmanuelle Lacan

  1. By: Stephan D. Whitaker
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic caused a massive change in the movement of people at both the neighborhood and the regional levels in the United States. New migration estimates will enable us to track which urban neighborhoods and metro areas are returning to their old migration patterns and where the pandemic has permanently shifted migration trends.
    Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; Urban economics; Public health - Economic aspects
    Date: 2023–08–03
  2. By: Peng Sun; Jeremy Clark (University of Canterbury); Tom Coupé (University of Canterbury)
    Abstract: We analyse a quasi-experiment where a much sought-after state secondary school with no close substitutes unexpectedly reduced its enrolment zone twice over a three-year period. We use difference-in-differences to estimate the impact of the two downsizings on housing sales prices. We use controls for housing characteristics for pooled cross section or housing fixed effects for repeat sales, test for parallel trends, and conduct numerous robustness checks. In our main analysis we find the first downsizing may decrease housing prices between 3.2% to 12.9%, with most estimates statistically significant, while the second downsizing may decrease prices between 2.1% to 7.2%, with most estimates insignificant. Tests in the pre-treatment period suggest parallel trends cannot be rejected, though some cross section interactions are significant when the two downsizings are analysed separately. We conclude the school zone’s first downsizing likely had a negative effect on housing prices of a small to moderate magnitude.
    Keywords: School housing price premium, difference-in-differences, hedonic house pricing models
    JEL: I24 I28 R32 R38
    Date: 2023–08–01
  3. By: Oklobdzija, Stan Nguyen (Tulane University)
    Abstract: Though the Supreme Court’s 1955 decision in Brown v. Board of Education outlawed explicit segregation of public schools, segregation has remained stubbornly persistent in the intervening decades. What explains continuous racial segregation in the absence of explicit policy? One possible driver is America’s built environment–designed with similar segregationist impulses but not subject to corrective legal action. Zoning and land use policy may inhibit residential mobility which in turns leads to segregated schools. I investigate this drawing on data from over 150 million residential parcels provided by Zillow. I find that school districts whose boundaries include a higher proportion of single-family parcels have a higher proportion of White students and more racial concentration than districts whose boundaries include more mixed types of housing. However, I do not find that districts with more single-family parcels have more racially segregated student populations compared to the larger metro area. These findings help illuminate how land use policy influences educational segregation and contributes to literature on how policies that regulate the built environment affect racial sorting.
    Date: 2023–07–08
  4. By: Jesse Matheson (University of Sheffield); Brendon McConnell (University of Southampton); James Rockey (University of Birmingham); Argyris Sakalis (University of Sheffield)
    Abstract: We examine the impact of the working from home (WFH) shift on neighborhood-level burglary rates, employing detailed street-level crime data and a neighborhood WFH measure. We find a one standard deviation increase in WFH (9.5pp) leads to a persistent 4% drop in burglaries. A spatial search model identifies two deterrence channels: occupancy, as burglars avoid occupied houses, and \eyes on the street". We provide evidence supporting both channels. Despite crime displacement to low WFH areas offseting 30% of the burglary reduction, a hedonic pricing model reveals significant willingness to pay for high WFH areas, especially those with high ex-ante burglary risk.
    Keywords: Working From Home, Property Crime, Spatial Spillovers, Hedonic House Price Models.
    JEL: H75 K42 R20
    Date: 2023–07
  5. By: Disney, Richard; Gathergood, John; Machin, Stephen; Sandi, Matteo
    Abstract: “Right to Buy” (RTB), a large-scale natural experiment whereby incumbent tenants in public housing could buy properties at heavily-subsidised prices, increased the UK homeownership rate by over 10 percentage points between its 1980 introduction and the 1990s. This paper studies the impact of this reform on crime by leveraging exogenous variation in eligibility for the policy. Results show that RTB generated significant property crime reductions. Behavioural changes of incumbent tenants and renovation of public properties were the main drivers of this crime reduction. This is evidence of a novel means by which subsidised homeownership and housing policy can reduce criminality.
    Keywords: crime; ownership; pubic housing; OUP deal
    JEL: H44 K14 R31
    Date: 2023–06–05
  6. By: Robert Collinson; John Eric Humphries; Nicholas Mader; Davin Reed; Daniel Tannenbaum; Winnie van Dijk
    Abstract: More than two million U.S. households have an eviction case filed against them each year. Policymakers at the federal, state, and local levels are increasingly pursuing policies to reduce the number of evictions, citing harm to tenants and high public expenditures related to homelessness. We study the consequences of eviction for tenants using newly linked administrative data from two major urban areas: Cook County (which includes Chicago) and New York City. We document that prior to housing court, tenants experience declines in earnings and employment and increases in financial distress and hospital visits. These pre-trends pose a challenge for disentangling correlation and causation. To address this problem, we use an instrumental variables approach based on cases randomly assigned to judges of varying leniency. We find that an eviction order increases homelessness and hospital visits and reduces earnings, durable goods consumption, and access to credit in the first two years. Effects on housing and labor market outcomes are driven by impacts for female and Black tenants. In the longer-run, eviction increases indebtedness and reduces credit scores.
    JEL: H0 I30 I32 J01 R0 R28 R38
    Date: 2023–07
  7. By: Park, Youngjun; Han, Sumin
    Abstract: Rapid advancements in deep learning technology have shown great promise in helping us better understand the spatio-temporal characteristics of human mobility in urban areas. There exist two main approaches to spatial deep learning models for urban space - a convolutional neural network (CNN) which originated from visual data like satellite image, and a graph convolutional network (GCN) which is based on the urban topologies such as road network and regional boundaries. However, compared to language-based models that have recently achieved notable success, deep learning models for urban space still need further development. In this study, we propose a novel approach that addresses the trajectories of a trip as sentences of a language and adapts techniques like word embedding from natural language processing to gain insights into human mobility patterns in urban areas. Our approach involves processing sequences of spatial units that are generated by a human agent's trajectory, treating them as akin to word sequences in a language. Specifically, we represent individual trajectories as sequences of spatial vector units using 50×50 meters grid cells to divide the urban area. This representation captures the spatio-temporal changes of the trip, and enables us to employ natural language processing techniques, such as word embeddings and attention mechanisms, to analyze the urban trajectory sequences. Additionally, we leverage word embedding models from language processing to acquire compressed representations of the trajectory. These compressed representations contain richer information about the features, while minimizing the computational load.
    Date: 2023–06–17
  8. By: Bauluz, Luis; Bukowski, P.; Fransham, M.; Lee, A.; López Forero, M.; Novokmet, Filip; Breau, S.; Lee, Neil; Malgouyres, Clément; Schularick, Moritz; Verdugo, Gregory
    Abstract: The rise of economic inequalities in advanced economies has been often linked with the growth of spatial inequalities within countries, yet there is limited comparative research that studies the relationship between national and subnational economic inequality. This paper presents the first systematic attempt to create internationally comparable evidence showing how different countries perform in terms of geographic wage inequalities. We create cross-country comparable measures of spatial wage disparities between and within similarly-defined local labour market areas (LLMAs) for Canada, France, (West) Germany, the UK and the US since the 1970s, and assess their contribution to national inequality. By the end of the 2010s, spatial inequalities in LLMA mean wages are similar in Canada, France, Germany and the UK; the US exhibits the highest degree of spatial inequality. Over the study period, spatial inequalities have nearly doubled in all countries, except for France where spatial inequalities have fallen back to 1970s levels. Due to a concomitant increase in within-place inequality, the contribution of places in explaining national wage inequality has remained fairly constant over the 40-year study period, except in the UK where we document a significant increase. Whilst common global social, economic and technological shocks are important drivers of spatial inequality, this variation in levels and trends of spatial inequality opens the way to comparative research exploring the role of national institutions in mediating how global shocks translate into economic disparities between places.
    Keywords: regional inequality, wage inequality, local labour markets
    JEL: J3 R1 R23
    Date: 2023
  9. By: Pedro Carneiro; Yyannú Cruz-Aguayo; Norbert Schady; Francesca Salvati
    Abstract: We study the impact of classroom rank on children’s learning using a unique experiment from Ecuador. Within each school, students were randomly assigned to classrooms in every grade between kindergarten and 6th grade. Students with the same ability can have different classroom ranks because of the (random) peer composition of their classroom. Children with higher beginning-of-grade classroom rank have significantly higher test scores at the end of that grade. The impact of classroom rank is larger for younger children and grows over time. Higher classroom rank also improves executive function, child happiness, and teacher perceptions of student ability.
    Date: 2023–08–14
  10. By: Fernando V. Ferreira; Jeanna H. Kenney; Benjamin Smith
    Abstract: We study how recent gentrification shocks impact Black and Hispanic neighborhoods, including where minority households move to after a shock and if the subsequent spatial distribution of households within a labor market area affects segregation. We first report that household moves from a given neighborhood are concentrated to a few destinations. For minority neighborhoods, destinations tend to have similar minority shares but are farther away from downtown. Those mobility patterns are partially explained by neighborhood networks. We then use Bartik-style labor market income shocks to show that gentrification has many effects. In Black neighborhoods, gentrification increases house prices and reduces the share of Black households while increasing the share of White households. For movers from Black neighborhoods, gentrification increases the share of movers going to top 1 and 2 destinations based on neighborhood networks and increases the share of households moving out of the MSA, but does not change the pattern of households moving to neighborhoods with similar Black shares that are farther away from downtown areas. Hispanic neighborhoods have negligible effects from gentrification. Finally, our model reveals that overall labor market area segregation decreases after a gentrification shock because highly Black neighborhoods become less segregated.
    JEL: J61 R0
    Date: 2023–07
  11. By: Randall W. Eberts (W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research)
    Abstract: This report focuses on the COVID-19 pandemic in the Kalamazoo Public Schools District in Kalamazoo, Michigan, which closed its doors to students from mid-March 2020 to June 2021. During this time, instruction transitioned from face-to-face to virtual, with students having three options for virtual instruction. In addition to individual KPS student data, the study looks at the NWEA national sample as presented in several publications and technical appendices. The study addresses three basic questions, as well as examining students’ race/ethnicity and poverty status, summer learning loss to determine the change in achievement gains, and attendance rates as an example of students not receiving face-to-face instruction. The first question asks whether the pandemic, which began in March of 2020, adversely affected student enrollment. The second question examines how achievement gains based on the NWEA math tests during the 2020–2021 pandemic school year compared to prepandemic and post-school-closure trends. The third question examines the variability of NWEA math test scores during the pandemic compared to the school years before and after the 2020–2021 pandemic school year. We find that student enrollment declined during and after the pandemic school year for at least two years, which is more than appears to be the case in all but the first few years of the century. In addressing the second question, we found that achievement gains rebounded after KPS schools opened, although achievement gains are not as high as in the prepandemic school year. It also appears that the lower grades were more resilient than the upper grades during this period. Regarding the third question, we found that test scores were more variable at the low end of the distribution than at the high end and that variability increased in the year following school closure.
    Keywords: Education, students, NWEA tests, grades 3 through 8, COVID-19 pandemic
    JEL: I21 I24
    Date: 2023–07
  12. By: Zemlyanskii, Dmitriy (Землянский, Дмитрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Chuzhenkova, Valeria (Чуженькова, Валерия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Abdullaev, Alexander (Абдуллаев, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kalinovskiy, Leonid (Калиновский, Леонид) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Medvednikova, Darina (Медведникова, Дарина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The research work presents a comprehensive analysis of the socio-economic development of the cities in Russia’s Far Eastern Federal District (DFO) and reflects both the current level of territorial development and the dynamics of key parameters over the period under review. The study is relevant due to the fact that Russian cities in recent years have regularly become the subject of discussion and analysis, both among the scientific community and among government representatives. The cities of the Far East are a priority given the remoteness of the territories and the number of projects implemented here in recent years. The goal of the study is to perform basic diagnostics of the socio-economic development of the regional centers of the Far Eastern Federal District and to identify medium- and long-term trends in the development of regional capitals of the macro region. To achieve this goal, the following objectives are identified: conducting socio-economic diagnostics of the socio-economic situation of the DFO regional capitals; comparing the development context of the DFO regional capitals ; identifying sustainable medium- and long-term trends (the choice of a time slice depends on the availability of data for each indicator). The work relies on open data sources. First of all, these include Rosstat data (data from the Rosstat website, the statistical collections of the department, EMISS (Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistics System) and BDPMO (Municipal Formations Performance Database) databases). For the parts of the work where there are no special links to the data source, Rosstat data is used. In addition, departmental data of the Federal Treasury, the Federal Tax Service, the Federal Air Transport Agency, etc. was used for individual sections. The key research methods used were: statistical analysis, economic analysis, mapping and GIS analysis, infographic construction methods and comparative analysis. The results of the study showed a significant differentiation between the DFO regional capitals in terms of the socio-economic development level and its dynamics in recent years. The best situation is observed in the capitals of extractive regions (due to high salaries and tax revenues of mining companies), as well as the key macro-regional centers, the largest in terms of population, Vladivostok and Khabarovsk, although the latter is noticeably inferior in terms of the residents’ personal income and local budget indicators. The situation is the worst in other regional centers along the Southern border of the Far Eastern Federal District, where low income compared to the national level fails to stimulate the development of market service industries, the share of "shadow" employment is high, and the real sectors of the urban economy are characterized by extended depression and low investment appeal, despite the potential of extractive industry development and trans-border opportunities. The research materials will be useful to the executive authorities at different levels, urban stakeholders and a broad range of experts and analysts.
    Keywords: Urban agglomerations, Far Eastern Federal District, regional centers of the Far East, regional development factors, socio-economic development, cities of Russia, urban districts of the Russian Federation, urban development
    JEL: R12 R23 R51 O18
    Date: 2022–09
  13. By: Shahriar Akhavan (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Maciej Grzenda (Warsaw University of Technology); Anna Nicińska (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Joanna Rachubik (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Satia Rożynek (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Jakub Zawieska (Warsaw School of Economics); Grzegorz Kula (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)
    Abstract: This article presents an extensive analysis of the private ownership of cars and other transport modes in Warsaw, Poland, with a focus on understanding mobility patterns and exploring sustainable alternatives to private car usage. It provides a comprehensive description of car ownership trends, highlighting the high and growing number of cars per capita in Poland, particularly in Warsaw. The existing transport system in Warsaw, including the public transport network and related policies, is summarized. A literature review examines institutional, socio-economic, and individual factors influencing mobility behaviors and the dynamics of recent changes in car usage and alternative modes of transport. The analysis identifies barriers and opportunities for the adoption of sustainable mobility solutions, while discussing policy implications at the national and international levels.
    Keywords: mobility systems, car ownership, public transportation, consumer preferences, sustainable mobility, urban communities
    JEL: R41 R48 R53 R58 Q54 O18
    Date: 2023
  14. By: Nguyen, Peter; Barajas, Jesus M
    Abstract: A variety of web-based mapping and quantitative analysis tools can help planners evaluate whether a given land use efficiency strategy can meet goals, but there has been limited information about the coverage, breadth, and availability of these tools. These tools can assist in the regional implementation of greenhouse gas reduction strategies through land use development. As such, decisionmakers would benefit from knowing which of these tools could serve their needs. Researchers at UC Davis studied methods and tools available to regional and local governments to evaluate the land use efficiency and equity of their policies and plans. The research team then conducted a workshop with regional and local government representatives to identify efficacy, gaps, and potential improvements for these tools. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Equity (justice), land use, sustainable development, transportation planning, vehicle miles of travel
    Date: 2023–08–01
  15. By: Andrea Bernini; Giovanni Facchini; Marco Tabellini; Cecilia Testa
    Abstract: The 1965 Voting Rights Act (VRA) paved the road to Black empowerment. How did southern whites respond? Leveraging newly digitized data on county-level voter registration rates by race between 1956 and 1980, and exploiting pre-determined variation in exposure to the federal intervention, we document that the VRA increases both Black and white political participation. Consistent with the VRA triggering counter mobilization, the surge in white registrations is concentrated where Black political empowerment is more tangible and salient due to the election of African Americans in county commissions. Additional analysis suggests that the VRA has long-lasting negative effects on whites’ racial attitudes.
    Keywords: Civil Rights, Race, Voting Behaviour, Enfranchisement
    Date: 2023
  16. By: Jangyoun Lee (Incheon National University); Hyunduk Suh (Inha University)
    Abstract: The total fertility rate (TFR) in Korea fell to the historically lowest value of 0.78, reaching the state of super low fertility, also similarly observed in other East Asian countries. We quantitatively assess future implications of super low fertility on housing markets using an overlapping generations (OLG) general equilibrium model, which features housing markets and demographic transitions. The results predict that while the current housing boom will continue in the near future, real housing prices will eventually decline after 2035 because of low fertility. Among government policies, increasing the housing supply or the birth rate can mitigate this long-term housing boom-bust cycle and is welfare-improving for currently young generations. Meanwhile, stricter caps on the LTV ratio are ineffective in stabilizing the housing cycle and welfare-reducing except for old generations.
    Keywords: super low fertility, OLG model, housing markets, housing supply, LTV policy
    JEL: J11 J13 R21
    Date: 2023–08
  17. By: Alejandra Agustina Martínez
    Abstract: Do peers influence individuals’ involvement in political activism? To provide a quantitative answer, I study Argentina’s abortion rights debate through Twitter - the social media platform. Pro-choice and pro-life activists coexisted online, and the evidence suggests peer groups were not too polarized. I develop a model of strategic interactions in a network - allowing for heterogeneous peer effects. Next, I estimate peer effects and test whether online activism exhibits strategic substitutability or complementarity. I create a novel panel dataset - where links and actions are observable - by combining tweets’ and users’ information. I provide a reduced-form analysis by proposing a network-based instrumental variable. The results indicate strategic complementarity in online activism, both from aligned and opposing peers. Notably, the evidence suggests homophily in the formation of Twitter’s network, but it does not support the hypothesis of an echo-chamber effect.
    Keywords: political activism; Peer effects; Social networks; Social media
    Date: 2023
  18. By: Diego Marino Fages
    Abstract: I study whether internal migrants assimilate culturally to the locals. Investigating this question with observational data has been challenging because it requires disentangling assimilation from sorting and because data on immigrants before migrating is typically not available. I overcome this challenge by studying the Swiss context, which provides an ideal setting for two reasons. First, as a result of its history, Switzerland presents substantial cultural differences between its regions. Second, the Swiss Household Panel tracks individuals for a long period before and after they move. I exploit these two features to compare early and late migrants in a difference-in-difference framework. I focus specifically on trust in strangers, one of the most important components of culture and which has been shown to predict growth and other desirable economic, social and political outcomes. I find a statistically and economically significant evidence on assimilation of migrants moving to higher and lower trust cantons, and this assimilation starts in the first few years. Finally, using the Sorted Effects Method, I find that assimilation is driven by the youngest immigrants, which is in line with the impressionable years hypothesis in psychology.
    Keywords: Trust, Assimilation, Migration, Switzerland, Impressionable years hypothesis
    Date: 2023
  19. By: Rinne, Ulf (IZA); Sonnabend, Hendrik (Fern Universität Hagen); Wolters, Leonie (Fern Universität Hagen)
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between customer preferences and ethnic team composition in German professional soccer. Ethnic team composition is measured using facial recognition techniques, player names, and nationality. The study uses a difference-in-differences approach to show that after New Year’s Eve 2015-16, third-division teams focusing on local and regional fans increased the share of native players by 6.4 to 12.2 percent compared to first- and second-division teams. Additionally, we find that in strongholds of the right-wing populist party AfD, a one-standard-deviation increase in the regional voting share for this party is associated with an increase in the share of native players by 3.1 to 3.6 percentage points. When examining the impacts of these changes in ethnic team composition on team productivity and economic success, we find that a higher share of (native) German is neither associated with better performance outcomes nor higher attendance rates.
    Keywords: discrimination, labor market, soccer, ethnicity, facial recognition
    JEL: J15 J44 J71 Z22
    Date: 2023–07
  20. By: Gary Koop (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde); Stuart McIntyre (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde); James Mitchell (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland; Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence); Aubrey Poon (Orebro University; Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence); Ping Wu (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)
    Abstract: Interest in regional economic issues coupled with advances in administrative data is driving the creation of new regional economic data. Many of these data series could be useful for nowcasting regional economic activity, but they suffer from a short (albeit constantly expanding) time series which makes incorporating them into nowcasting models problematic. Regional nowcasting is already challenging because the release delay on regional data tends to be greater than that at the national level, and “short†data imply a “ragged edge†at both the beginning and the end of regional data sets, which adds a further complication. In this paper, via an application to the UK, we develop methods to include a wide range of short data into a regional mixed-frequency VAR model. These short data include hitherto unexploited regional VAT turnover data. We address the problem of the ragged edge at both the beginning and end of our sample by estimating regional factors using different missing data algorithms that we then incorporate into our mixed-frequency VAR model. We find that nowcasts of regional output growth are generally improved when we condition them on the factors, but only when the regional nowcasts are produced before the national (UK-wide) output growth data are published.
    Keywords: Regional data, Mixed-frequency data, Missing data, Nowcasting, Factors, Bayesian methods, Real-time data, Vector autoregressions
    JEL: C32 C53 E37
    Date: 2023–04
  21. By: Erminia Florio (University of Rome "Tor Vergata" & HEC Montréal)
    Abstract: The research studies the effect of information campaigns on migration on perceptions and intentions to migrate among high school students in Dakar, Senegal. Through a randomized experiment, I analyze the role of expectations, migration perceptions, and intention to migrate and assess if (and, if so, which) actors and information content are effective the most in shaping students’ migration intention and perceptions. I find that students display a high level of distrust in domestic labor markets, and the information treatment with an external expert reduces the misperceptions on some measures of labor market statistics but has no effect on the perception of the illegal journey. In addition, narratives reduce the willingness to migrate illegally, but none of the treatments has impacts on the intention to migrate. The effect of narratives is stronger for students with close family members abroad.
    Keywords: Migration intentions, information provision, expectations
    JEL: O15 D83 F22
    Date: 2023–07–31
  22. By: Teemu Lyytikäinen
    Abstract: This paper analyzes how minimum local property tax rates affect local tax policy choice. In Finland, central government has raised the limits on property tax rates several times in the past 30 years. I construct a measure of forced tax rate increases caused by these reforms and examine how municipalities respond to forced increases in nearby municipalities. Results for the property tax on business properties indicate that neighbors' forced tax rate increases lead to higher tax rates, after a reform of the tax base equalization system which increased incentives to compete for the tax base. Before the equalization reform, the tax rates on business properties were unaffected by neighbors' forced tax rate increases. I find some indications that forced increases in the residential property tax rate lead to lower tax rates in neighboring municipalities four years later. Analysis of government bills shows that the introduction of minimum tax rates was partly motivated by concerns regarding horizontal and vertical tax competition. Forced property tax rate increases have a clear and lasting effect on tax revenue in affected municipalities, implying that the tax capacity of central government as regards other tax bases likely increased.
    JEL: H70 H71 H77
    Date: 2023–07
  23. By: NAKAMURA Ryohei; NAGAMUNE Takeshi; HAYASHI Syuusei
    Abstract: As a preliminary step to conducting a self-organization simulation of the concentration and dispersion of the information and communications industry, we will quantify the spatial concentration of the information and communications industry in large cities in Japan. Spatial analysis of the information and communications industry in Sapporo, Sendai, Hiroshima, and Fukuoka, which are regional core cities, in addition to the 23 wards of Tokyo, was conducted using Chocho data from the "Economic Census." As a result of detecting spatial autocorrelation in small area units in each city, hotspots indicating concentration of information and communications business establishments were detected in the city center of each city. At the same time, we were able to confirm the influence of the economy of agglomeration, which is the premise of the self-organization model, and also recognized that the information and communications industry is an industry that is suitable candidate for simulation of the self-organization phenomenon. Krugman (1996) first formulated the self-organization phenomenon in the city and clarified the emergence principle of the peripheral city, but it was limited to numerical simulation. After that, Kumar et al. (2007) used actual data to show the possibility of applying Krugman's self-organization model to predict the concentration and dispersion of firms. In this paper, we examined whether the self-organization model is effective for reproducing and predicting the accumulation and dispersion of the information and communications industry in Japanese cities by using the agent-based model.
    Date: 2023–08
  24. By: Jacob Nielsen Arendt; Christian Dustmann; Hyejin Ku
    Abstract: We analyze an immigration reform in Denmark that tightened refugee immigrants’ eligibility criteria for permanent residency to incentivize their labor market attachment and acquisition of local language skills. Contrary to what the reform intended, the overall employment of those affected decreased while their average language proficiency remained largely unchanged. This was caused by a disincentive effect, where individuals with low pre-reform labor market performance reduced their labor supply. Our findings suggest that stricter permanent residency rules, rather than incentivizing refugees’ skill investment, may decrease the efforts of those who believe they cannot meet the new requirements.
    Keywords: immigrant assimilation, refugee integration, labor supply, language proficiency, human capital
    JEL: J22 J24 J61
    Date: 2023
  25. By: NISHIHATA Masaya; TAHARA Hidenori; KOBAYASHI Yohei
    Abstract: It is widely acknowledged that teacher quality is one of the crucial factors in improving student achievement. However, empirically validated strategies for improving the quality of existing teachers are not necessarily apparent. We investigate the effect of the Japanese education policy which sends teachers abroad to overseas educational institutions on teacher quality and ability. We find that, on average, dispatched teachers report 0.2 and 0.4–0.6 standard deviation improvements in their self-assessed curriculum management skills and cross-cultural understanding, respectively, over a decade, compared to their non-dispatched counterparts. Notably, less experienced teachers are more likely to improve self-assessed curriculum management skills, whereas more experienced teachers tend to become confident in their school administration skills. Interestingly, dispatched teachers feel more confident about their cross-cultural understanding regardless of their years of experience. Overall, sending teachers abroad is an effective strategy to develop their skills, which are increasingly important as globalization progresses.
    Date: 2023–07
  26. By: NAKAMURA Ryohei
    Abstract: The growth of regional economies requires an economic metabolism in which high-productivity firms newly enter the market, while low-productivity firms exit the market, resulting in a shift in labor and other production factors. A "revolving door" economy is an economy in which firms that enter the market exist only for a short time, withdraw and enter the market repeatedly, and new entrants do not contribute to productivity improvement. This means that if new entrants are not sufficiently innovative compared to incumbents, even if the rate of entry into business rises, they will simply be replaced by companies whose productivity level is not significantly higher, and this will not lead to job creation or improved productivity. A contrasting concept is the replacement of companies by Schumpeter's “creative destruction.†The high level of technology and productivity of new firms entering the market drives inefficient incumbents out of the market. Looking at the statistics, there is a tendency for large cities to have both higher business entry and exit rates, but the difference between the entry and exit rates is greater in metropolitan areas. Although it depends on the regional characteristics, location competitiveness is generally higher in metropolitan areas, and there is a tendency for the turnover rate to be comparatively higher or the survival period to be shorter. Before and after regional revitalization, we will examine whether or not there is a departure from the revolving door economy by industry and region, using economic census and TSR (Tokyo Shoko Research) data.
    Date: 2023–08
  27. By: NAKAMURA Ryohei
    Abstract: The growth of regional economies requires an economic metabolism in which high-productivity firms newly enter the market, while low-productivity firms exit the market, resulting in a shift in labor and other production factors. A "revolving door" economy is an economy in which firms that enter the market exist only for a short time, withdraw and enter the market repeatedly, and new entrants do not contribute to productivity improvement. This means that if new entrants are not sufficiently innovative compared to incumbents, even if the rate of entry into business rises, they will simply be replaced by companies whose productivity level is not significantly higher, and this will not lead to job creation or improved productivity. A contrasting concept is the replacement of companies by Schumpeter's “creative destruction.†The high level of technology and productivity of new firms entering the market drives inefficient incumbents out of the market. Looking at the statistics, there is a tendency for large cities to have both higher business entry and exit rates, but the difference between the entry and exit rates is greater in metropolitan areas. Although it depends on the regional characteristics, location competitiveness is generally higher in metropolitan areas, and there is a tendency for the turnover rate to be comparatively higher or the survival period to be shorter. Before and after regional revitalization, we will examine whether or not there is a departure from the revolving door economy by industry and region, using economic census and TSR (Tokyo Shoko Research) data.
    Date: 2023–08
  28. By: Jacob R. Brown; Enrico Cantoni; Ryan D. Enos; Vincent Pons; Emilie Sartre
    Abstract: This paper provides novel evidence on trends in geographic partisan segregation. Using two individual-level panel datasets covering the near universe of the U.S. population between 2008 and 2020, we leverage information on individuals’ party affiliation to construct two key indicators: i) the fraction of Democrats among voters affiliated with either major party, which reveals that partisan segregation has increased across geographical units, at the tract, county, and congressional district levels; ii) The dissimilarity index, which measures differences in the partisan mix across distinct sub-units and highlights that partisan segregation has also increased within geographical units. Tracking individuals across election years, we decompose changes in partisan segregation into different sources: voter migration, generational change, older voters entering the electorate, and voters changing their partisanship or their registration status. The rise in partisan segregation is mostly driven by generational change, in Democratic-leaning areas, and by the increasing ideological conformity of stayers, in Republican-leaning areas.
    Date: 2023
  29. By: Christa N. Brunnschweiler; Samuel K. Obeng
    Abstract: We examine how local governments’ political alignment with central government affects subnational fiscal outcomes. In theory, alignment could be rewarded for example with more intergovernmental transfers, or swing voters in unaligned constituencies could be targeted instead. We analyze data from Ghana, which has a complex decentralized system that seeks to preclude political alignment effects. District Chief Executives (DCEs) are centrally appointed local administrators loyal to the ruling party, while district Members of Parliament (MPs) may belong to another party. A formula for central transfer distribution aims to limit the influence of party politics. Using a new dataset for 1994-2018 and a close election regression discontinuity design we find that despite this system, there is evidence of politically-motivated local fiscal outcomes. Aligned districts receive lower transfers and have lower district expenditure and internally generated funds, indicating swing-voter targeting. Results suggest that district fragmentations have weakened these effects. We also show strong electoral cycle effects, with mid-term peaks in fiscal outcomes.
    Keywords: political alignment, Ghana, regression discontinuity, electoral cycles, fiscal federalism
    Date: 2023
  30. By: Zigang Li; Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh; Wang Renxuan
    Abstract: Professional house price forecast data are consistent with a rational model where agents must learn about the parameters of the house price growth process and the underlying state of the housing market. Slow learning about the long-run mean can generate forecast bias, a response of forecasts to lagged realizations, sluggish response of forecasts to contemporaneous realizations, and over-reaction to forecast revisions. Introducing behavioral biases, either over-confidence or diagnostic expectations, helps the model further improve its predictions for short-horizon over-reaction and dispersion. Using panel data for a cross-section of forecasters and a term structure of forecasts are important for generating these results.
    JEL: E37 E7 G40 G50 R32
    Date: 2023–07
  31. By: Bresson, Georges (University of Paris 2); Etienne, Jean-Michel (Université Paris-Sud); Lacroix, Guy (Université Laval)
    Abstract: Excessive nighttime light is known to have detrimental effects on health and on the environment (fauna and flora). The paper investigates the link between nighttime light pollution and economic growth, air pollution, and urban density. We propose a county model of consumption which accounts for spatial interactions. The model naturally leads to a dynamic general nesting spatial model with unknown common factors. The model is estimated with data for 3071 continental US counties from 2012–2019 using a quasi-maximum likelihood estimator. Short run and long run county marginal effects emphasize the importance of spillover effects on radiance levels. Counties with high levels of radiance are less sensitive to additional growth than low-level counties. This has implications for policies that have been proposed to curtail nighttime light pollution.
    Keywords: nighttime light pollution, air pollution, GDP, satellite data, space-time panel data model
    JEL: C23 Q53
    Date: 2023–07
  32. By: Balgova, Maria (IZA); Illing, Hannah (University of Bonn)
    Abstract: This paper sheds new light on the barriers to migrants' labor market assimilation. Using administrative data for Germany from 1997-2016, we estimate dynamic difference-in-differences regressions to investigate the relative trajectory of earnings, wages, and employment following mass layoff separately for migrants and natives. We show that job displacement affects the two groups differently even when we systematically control for pre-layoff differences in their characteristics: migrants have on average higher earnings losses, and they find it much more difficult to find employment. However, those who do find a new job experience faster wage growth compared to displaced natives. We examine several potential mechanisms and find that these gaps are driven by labor market conditions, such as local migrant networks and labor market tightness, rather than migrants' behavior.
    Keywords: immigration, job displacement, job search
    JEL: J62 J63 J64
    Date: 2023–07
  33. By: Basu, Arnab K. (Cornell University); Chau, Nancy H. (Cornell University); Firsin, Oleg (Cornell University)
    Abstract: This paper unpacks the effects of social networks on monthly county-level COVID19 vaccinations in the US. To parse out short-term community-level externalities where people help each other overcome immediate access barriers, from learning spillovers regarding vaccine efficacy that naturally take time, we distinguish between the contemporaneous and dynamic network effects of vaccination exposure. Leveraging an extensive list of controls and network proxies including Facebook county-to-county links, we find evidence showing positive, stage-of-pandemic dependent contemporaneous friendship network effects. We also consistently find null dynamic network effect, suggesting that social exposure to vaccination has had limited effect on alleviating COVID vaccine hesitancy.
    Keywords: friendship network, COVID-19, vaccine uptake
    JEL: I12 D83 H12
    Date: 2023–07
  34. By: Leopold, Stefan; Ruhose, Jens; Wiederhold, Simon
    Abstract: The Roy-Borjas model predicts that international migrants are less educated than nonmigrants because the returns to education are generally higher in developing (migrant-sending) than in developed (migrant-receiving) countries. However, empirical evidence often shows the opposite. Using the case of Mexico-U.S. migration, we show that this inconsistency between predictions and empirical evidence can be resolved when the human capital of migrants is assessed using a two-dimensional measure of occupational skills rather than by educational attainment. Thus, focusing on a single skill dimension when investigating migrant selection can lead to misleading conclusions about the underlying economic incentives and behavioral models of migration.
    Keywords: education, international migration, occupational skills, selection
    JEL: F22 J24 J61 O15
    Date: 2023
  35. By: Antoine Fontaine (EVS - Environnement, Ville, Société - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Mines Saint-Étienne MSE - École des Mines de Saint-Étienne - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon - INSA Lyon - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon - Université de Lyon - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - ENSAL - École nationale supérieure d'architecture de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Laurence Rocher (EVS - Environnement, Ville, Société - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Mines Saint-Étienne MSE - École des Mines de Saint-Étienne - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon - INSA Lyon - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon - Université de Lyon - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - ENSAL - École nationale supérieure d'architecture de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The sharp increase in and volatility of fossil fuel prices, due in particular to the Russian–Ukrainian conflict, is a powerful incentive for cities to accelerate their energy transition. Yet urban authorities have limited power over the construction of energy policies and the management of networks, and they remain dependent on remote and mainly carbon-intensive imported sources of energy. The recovery of waste heat from waste incineration or industrial emissions and its use in heating networks represents a solution for cities to control part of their energy supply, to develop their own capacities for action and to implement local transition strategies, in addition to the development of renewable energies. Based on the analysis of four case studies in France between 2019 and 2022, in the context preceding the current energy crisis, this article examines how cities are trying to develop waste heat recovery and the role this energy resource plays in the decarbonisation of urban energy systems. The analysis highlights that the emergence of these projects is more broadly part of the renegotiation dynamics of energy, ecological and economic relationships between cities and industries, and that their implementation results in the construction of new urban energy nexuses. The use of waste heat makes it possible to improve the energy efficiency of industrial and urban energy systems, sometimes significantly, but it must be seen as a transitional solution because it can temporarily increase cities' dependency on high-carbon and energy-inefficient industrial activities.
    Keywords: Urban nexus, Waste heat, Energy transition, Infrastructure, Public policy
    Date: 2023
  36. By: Masuda, Kazuya (Hitotsubashi University); Shigeoka, Hitoshi (Simon Fraser University)
    Abstract: We examine the mortality effects of a 1947 school reform in Japan, which extended compulsory schooling from primary to secondary school by as much as 3 years. The abolition of secondary school fees also indicates that those affected by the reform likely came from disadvantaged families who could have benefited the most from schooling. Even in this relatively favorable setting, we fail to find that the reform improved later-life mortality up to the age of 87 years, although it significantly increased years of schooling. This finding suggests limited health returns to schooling at the lower level of educational attainment.
    Keywords: education, later-life mortality, secondary school, Japan, regression discontinuity design
    JEL: H52 I12 I21 I28
    Date: 2023–07
  37. By: Rabindra Nepal; Rohan Best; Madeline Taylor
    Abstract: This paper assesses ethnic differences for four energy outcomes using a survey of 6, 000 households in Nepal. These four outcomes are avoiding open wick lamps, having a solar lighting system, living in a neighbourhood with street lighting, and having a connection to the national grid. We find large differences across ethnic groups, with the Madhesi group having distinct energy outcomes, for each of the four dimensions. However, progressively more detailed locational variables explain much of the difference. Our interactive analysis then suggests that some of the remaining variation is explained by socioeconomic variables of having a financial account, school attendance, or membership of a women’s group. However, ethnic inequality for the most place-based outcome, of living in an area with street lighting, is not reduced by education or women’s group membership. Our results therefore suggest that ethnic inequality in place-based energy outcomes may not be addressed by policies promoting education and community group participation. Policies to increase the proportions of households with access to financial accounts may have broader effectiveness in reducing ethnic energy inequality across many energy dimensions.
    Keywords: ethnicity, financial account, grid, open wick lamp, solar lighting system, street light
    JEL: D14 O13 Q40 Q53
    Date: 2023–07
  38. By: Andreas Kammerlander; Günther G. Schulze (Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg)
    Abstract: We show, for the rst time, a causal eect of local economic growth on infant mortality. We use geo-referenced data for non-migrating mothers from 46 developing countries and 128 DHS survey rounds and combine it with nighttime luminosity data at a granular level. Using mother xed eects we show that an increase in local economic activity signicantly reduces the probability that the same mother loses a further child before its first birthday.
    Keywords: local economic growth, child mortality, nighttime lights
    JEL: I15 O18
    Date: 2021–09
  39. By: Marinho Bertanha; Margaux Luflade; Ismael Mourifi\'e
    Abstract: A growing number of central authorities use assignment mechanisms to allocate students to schools in a way that reflects student preferences and school priorities. However, most real-world mechanisms give students an incentive to be strategic and misreport their preferences. In this paper, we provide an identification approach for causal effects of school assignment on future outcomes that accounts for strategic misreporting. Misreporting may invalidate existing point-identification approaches, and we derive sharp bounds for causal effects that are robust to strategic behavior. Our approach applies to any mechanism as long as there exist placement scores and cutoffs that characterize that mechanism's allocation rule. We use data from a deferred acceptance mechanism that assigns students to more than 1, 000 university-major combinations in Chile. Students behave strategically because the mechanism in Chile constrains the number of majors that students submit in their preferences to eight options. Our methodology takes that into account and partially identifies the effect of changes in school assignment on various graduation outcomes.
    Date: 2023–07
  40. By: Fatemeh Zarei; Yerali Gandica; Luis Enrique Correa Rocha
    Abstract: Human interactions create social networks forming the backbone of societies. Individuals adjust their opinions by exchanging information through social interactions. Two recurrent questions are whether social structures promote opinion polarisation or consensus in societies and whether polarisation can be avoided, particularly on social media. In this paper, we hypothesise that not only network structure but also the timings of social interactions regulate the emergence of opinion clusters. We devise a temporal version of the Deffuant opinion model where pairwise interactions follow temporal patterns and show that burstiness alone is sufficient to refrain from consensus and polarisation by promoting the reinforcement of local opinions. Individuals self-organise into a multi-partisan society due to network clustering, but the diversity of opinion clusters further increases with burstiness, particularly when individuals have low tolerance and prefer to adjust to similar peers. The emergent opinion landscape is well-balanced regarding clusters' size, with a small fraction of individuals converging to extreme opinions. We thus argue that polarisation is more likely to emerge in social media than offline social networks because of the relatively low social clustering observed online. Counter-intuitively, strengthening online social networks by increasing social redundancy may be a venue to reduce polarisation and promote opinion diversity.
    Date: 2023–07
  41. By: Brunetti, Marianna (University of Rome Tor Vergata); Zaiceva, Anzelika (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia)
    Abstract: Using a unique Italian dataset covering the period 2004-2020, we assess the immigrant-native gap in entrepreneurship and investigate channels behind it. The data allows us to account for many observable characteristics as well as for risk aversion, which is usually not observed, yet crucial for the self-employment decision. Unlike most of the existing empirical literature, we find that immigrants in Italy are less likely to be self-employed. The negative gap is confirmed when propensity score matching methodology is used. Heterogeneity analysis suggests that the negative gap is larger for men, for economic migrants and those coming from Sub-Saharan Africa, while it is not significant for mixed immigrant-native couples, for highly skilled, and for migrants from Asia and Oceania. The largest gap is found for those working in the agricultural sector. Regarding additional channels, we explore the role of access to credit, including the informal one, and whether migrants are credit constrained, as well as the importance of migrant networks, easiness of doing business, and expenditures on services for migrants. Despite finding significant correlations between self-employment and some of these factors, none of them seem to decrease the magnitude of the negative gap.
    Keywords: immigrants, self-employment, gender, intermarriage, propensity score matching
    JEL: F22 J21 O15 J15
    Date: 2023–07
  42. By: Cheng, Zhiming (University of New South Wales); Guo, Liwen (University of New South Wales); Tani, Massimiliano (University of New South Wales); Cook, Sarah (University of Nottingham)
    Abstract: Our study focuses on exploring the impact of air pollution on household investment in children's education in China. Air pollution poses a significant risk to some cities in northern China. We have used panel data from secondary schools in Shandong Province in 2017 and 2020 and discovered that a rise of one standard deviation of PM2.5 leads to a 9.6-44.6 percentage point decrease in the likelihood of parents spending on their children's education. The impact of air pollution on household education investment is mediated by parents' and children's educational expectations and household incomes. Our findings also indicate that high school students are more likely to receive higher education investment than middle school students, even at the same level of air pollution. The results of our study suggest that air pollution can lead to a decrease in human capital accumulation due to changes in parental behaviors induced by air pollution.
    Keywords: air pollution, education investment, China
    JEL: Q53 I20 D10
    Date: 2023–07
  43. By: Natalia Zdanowska
    Abstract: In spite of being one of the smallest and wealthiest countries in the European Union in terms of GDP per capita, Luxembourg is facing socio-economic challenges due to recent rapid urban transformations. This article contributes by approaching this phenomenon at the most granular and rarely analysed geographical level - the neighbourhoods of the capital, Luxembourg City. Based on collected empirical data covering various socio-demographic dimensions for 2020-2021, an ascending hierarchical classification on principal components is set out to establish neighbourhoods' socio-spatial patterns. In addition, Chi2 tests are carried out to examine residents' socio-demographic characteristics and determine income inequalities in neighbourhoods. The results reveal a clear socio-spatial divide along a north-west south-east axis. Moreover, classical factors such as gender or citizenship differences are revealed to be poorly determinant of income inequalities compared with the proportion of social benefits recipients and single residents.
    Date: 2023–07
  44. By: Linsenmeier, Manuel
    Abstract: This study examines the effects of temperature variability on long-run economic development. To identify causal effects, a novel econometric strategy is employed, based on spatial first-differences. Economic activity is proxied by satellite data on nightlights. Drawing on climate science, the study distinguishes between temperature variability on three time scales: day-to-day, seasonal, and interannual variability. The results indicate that day-to-day temperature variability has a statistically significant, negative effect on economic activity, while seasonal variability has a smaller but also negative effect. The effect of interannual variability is positive at low temperatures, but negative at high temperatures. Furthermore, the results suggest that daily temperature levels have a non-linear effect on economic activity with an optimal temperature around 15 degrees Celsius. However, most of the estimated effects of variability cannot be explained with this non-linearity and instead seem to be due to larger uncertainty about future temperature realisations. The empirical effects can be found in both urban and rural areas, and they cannot be explained by the distribution of agriculture. The results indicate that projected changes of temperature variability might add to the costs of anthropogenic climate change especially in relatively warm and currently relatively poor regions.
    Keywords: climate; temperature; nightlights; day-to-day variability; seasonal variability; interannual variability; 2300776; UKRI fund
    JEL: Q54 Q56 R11 R12 R14 O13
    Date: 2023–09–01
  45. By: Shaheen, Susan PhD; Cohen, Adam; Broader, Jacquelyn
    Abstract: Curb space has been traditionally designed for private vehicle parking, public transit, and passenger and commercial loading. However, in recent years, a growing number of newservices and activities have increased the demand for limited curb space, including passenger pick-up and drop-off; last-mile delivery (e.g., courier network services, personal delivery devices); electric vehicle (EV) charging; micromobility parking and use (e.g., personally owned and shared bikes and scooters); and carsharing services. The curb serves a variety of functions such as vehicle and device storage (including personally owned and shared vehicles and devices), outdoor dining and retail, greenspace, and other uses. These changes are contributing to a notable shift in how people access and use the curb, and how public agencies plan, prioritize, and manage curbside interactions.
    Keywords: Engineering
    Date: 2023–07–01
  46. By: Nizar Allouch; Luis A.Guardiola; A. Meca
    Abstract: Measuring individual productivity (or equivalently distributing the overall productivity) in a network structure of workers displaying peer effects has been a subject of ongoing interest in many areas ranging from academia to industry. In this paper, we propose a novel approach based on cooperative game theory that takes into account the peer effects of worker productivity represented by a complete bipartite network of in- teractions. More specifically, we construct a series of cooperative games where the characteristic function of each coalition of workers is equal to the sum of each worker intrinsic productivity as well as the productivity of other workers within a distance discounted by an attenuation factor. We show that these (truncated) games are balanced and converge to a balanced game when the distance of influence grows large. We then provide an explicit formula for the Shapley value and propose an alternative coalitionally stable distribution of productivity which is computationally much more tractable than the Shapley value. Lastly, we characterize this alternative distribution based on three sensible properties of a logistic network. This analysis enhances our understanding of game-theoretic analysis within logistics networks, offering valuable insights into the peer effects’ impact when assessing the overall productivity and its distribution among workers.
    Keywords: Productivity; peer effects; complete bipartite networks; cooperative games
  47. By: Alex Eble; Maya Escueta
    Abstract: In settings of extreme poverty, how do demand and supply combine to produce child learning? In rural Gambia, caregivers with high aspirations for their children's future, measured before children start school, invest substantially more than others in children’s education. Despite this, essentially no children are literate or numerate three years later. When villages receive a highly impactful, teacher-focused supply-side intervention, however, children of high-aspirations caregivers are 25 percent more likely to achieve literacy and numeracy than others in the same village. We estimate patterns of substitutability and complementarity between demand and supply in generating learning that change with skill difficulty.
    JEL: I24 I25 I28 I3 O12 O15
    Date: 2023–06
  48. By: David R. Agrawal
    Abstract: An international tax haven is usually a low-tax jurisdiction that seeks to attract investment by foreign investors. But, there are many state and local jurisdictions within federal systems that set zero tax rates on personal or corporate income, consumption, property, and wealth in an effort to attract activity from other high-tax jurisdictions. I discuss whether subnational tax havens are distinct from intense tax competition. I conclude that in a federal system, the economic implications of the two may be similar, but the policy responses differ subtly. A survey of the empirical evidence on the effect of zero or very low tax rates indicates that the lowest tax jurisdiction may disproportionately benefit from non-real base shifting, but real and avoidance responses also arise in response to smaller tax differentials between non-havens. Turning to the corporate income tax, I discuss how legal rules such as formula apportionment, economic nexus, and incorporation rules influence tax competition and the avoidance behaviors of multistate companies.
    Keywords: tax haven, tax competition, state and local public finance, regulatory competition, corporate charters
    JEL: H71 H73 H77 K22 K34 R51
    Date: 2023
  49. By: Emil Mendoza; Fabian Dunker; Marco Reale
    Abstract: In this paper house prices in Christchurch are analyzed over three distinct periods of time: post-2011 earthquake, pre-COVID-19 lockdown, and post-COVID-19 lockdown using the well-established hedonic price model. Results show that buyers, in periods that are temporally distant from the 2011 Christchurch earthquake, value the risk of potential earthquake damage to a property differently from buyers soon after the earthquake. We find that there are observable shifts in hedonic prices across the different time periods, specifically for section size pre and post COVID-19 lockdown.
    Date: 2023–07
  50. By: Laurent Kloeker; Gregor Joeken; Lutz Eckstein
    Abstract: Smart roadside infrastructure sensors in the form of intelligent transportation system stations (ITS-Ss) are increasingly deployed worldwide at relevant traffic nodes. The resulting digital twins of the real environment are suitable for developing and validating connected and automated driving functions and for increasing the operational safety of intelligent vehicles by providing ITS-S real-time data. However, ITS-Ss are very costly to establish and operate. The choice of sensor technology also has an impact on the overall costs as well as on the data quality. So far, there is only insufficient knowledge about the concrete expenses that arise with the construction of different ITS-S setups. Within this work, multiple modular infrastructure sensor setups are investigated with the help of a life cycle cost analysis (LCCA). Their economic efficiency, different user requirements and sensor data qualities are considered. Based on the static cost model, a Monte Carlo simulation is performed, to generate a range of possible project costs and to quantify the financial risks of implementing ITS-S projects of different scales. Due to its modularity, the calculation model is suitable for diverse applications and outputs a distinctive evaluation of the underlying cost-benefit ratio of investigated setups.
    Date: 2023–07
  51. By: Bauer, Anahid (MINES ParisTech); Fernández Guerrico, Sofía (Université Libre de Bruxelles)
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of e-commerce on local labor markets. We exploit cross-market variation in e-commerce price advantage stemming from the enactment of the Amazon Tax-state-level legislation that mandates state sales taxes collection to out-of-state online retailers. Introducing out-of-state sales taxes lowered employment and reduced wages in transportation and warehousing, industries complementary to e-commerce. Within the in-state retail sector, the decline in brick-and-mortar employment is somewhat offset by an increase in employment in warehouse clubs and supercenters. Our results are consistent with a general equilibrium model in which consumers substitute e-commerce for big-box purchases, crowding out brick-and-mortar retail.
    Keywords: e-commerce, retail, employment, Amazon Tax
    JEL: H71 J2 L81 O33
    Date: 2023–07
  52. By: Thibault Isambourg (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Louafi Bouzouina (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Dominique Mignot (TS2 - Département Transport, Santé, Sécurité - Université de Lyon - Université Gustave Eiffel)
    Abstract: Mobility in deprived neighbourhoods is attracting growing interest in both the political and scientific spheres, driven by the growing need to take better account of the social challenges of mobility. So, the French urban policy which aims to reduce urban territorial inequalities (known as "Politique de la ville") has confirmed its determination to work towards mobility in the neighbourhoods it covers. However, knowledge of mobility in these neighbourhoods remains sketchy and sparse, with studies mostly conducted on the scale of urban units. This analysis sheds light on the specific mobility practices in these disadvantaged neighbourhoods, adopting a diachronic approach (2008-2019) and for the first time representative of the French territory. People living in poor neighbourhoods suffer from unequal access to speed, which in turn compresses the length of their trips. Indeed, their modal practices are more environment-friendly, with less reliance on the car (the faster mode) and more on public transport and walking. The estimation of an econometric model makes it possible to clarify this, showing that these modal differences are not based solely on the particularities of these neighbourhoods (high unemployment rates, more frequent location in large urban units, etc.). In addition, the model also reveals that inequalities in motorisation do not entirely explain these modal disparities, contrasting on this point with previous literature.
    Abstract: La mobilité des quartiers populaires jouit d'un intérêt croissant, autant dans le champ politique que scientifique, poussé par la montée de l'impératif d'une meilleure prise en compte des enjeux sociaux de la mobilité. C'est dans ce sens que la Politique de la ville, qui vise à la réduction des inégalités territoriales urbaines, a acté de sa volonté d'œuvrer pour la mobilité des quartiers de son zonage d'action. Pourtant, la connaissance de la mobilité dans ces quartiers reste sommaire et clairsemée dans des études pour la plupart à l'échelle d'agglomérations. Cette analyse permet de mettre en lumière les spécificités de mobilité dans ces quartiers défavorisés, adoptant une approche diachronique (2008-2019) et pour la première fois représentative du territoire français. Les habitants des quartiers pauvres subissent un inégal accès à la vitesse, comprimant en retour la portée de leur déplacement. En effet, les pratiques modales y sont plus sobres, moins portées sur la voiture (mode pourtant plus rapide) et davantage sur les transports collectifs et la marche. L'estimation d'un modèle économétrique permet de préciser cela, montrant notamment que ces différences modales ne reposent pas uniquement sur les particularités de ces quartiers (taux de chômage élevés, localisation plus fréquente en grandes agglomérations, etc.). En outre, le modèle révèle aussi que les inégalités de motorisation n'expliquent pas entièrement ces disparités modales, contrastant sur ce point avec la littérature antérieure.
    Keywords: daily mobility, sociospatial inequalities, French "Politique de la ville", disadvantage neighbourhoods, modal choice, choix modaux, inégalités sociospatiales, Politique de la ville / urban policy, quartiers populaires, mobilité quotidienne
    Date: 2023–06–28
  53. By: St\'ephane Bonhomme; Kevin Dano
    Abstract: Economic interactions often occur in networks where heterogeneous agents (such as workers or firms) sort and produce. However, most existing estimation approaches either require the network to be dense, which is at odds with many empirical networks, or they require restricting the form of heterogeneity and the network formation process. We show how the functional differencing approach introduced by Bonhomme (2012) in the context of panel data, can be applied in network settings to derive moment restrictions on model parameters and average effects. Those restrictions are valid irrespective of the form of heterogeneity, and they hold in both dense and sparse networks. We illustrate the analysis with linear and nonlinear models of matched employer-employee data, in the spirit of the model introduced by Abowd, Kramarz, and Margolis (1999).
    Date: 2023–07
  54. By: Bellanca, Nicolò (University of Florence (Italy))
    Abstract: This essay reflects on why local communities continue to exist and spread. Why does the planet not become one place without borders? Why, instead, do we humans prefer to cluster in communities that are neither “too wide” nor “too narrow”? What characterizes today’s form of community? Why do these communities take root in places? Why, finally, are local communities a “sufficient cause” for socio-economic development? The answer to these questions is drawn from multiple strands of literature, which seek to provide coherent and complementary arguments.
    Date: 2023–07–10
  55. By: Kartseva Marina A. (Карцева Марина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Florinskaya Julia F. (Флоринская Юлия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: Millions of international migrants are living in Russia today. This paper, based on Rosstat’s “Selective Observation of Migrant Labor” survey conducted in 2019, provides an econometric comparative analysis of the labor market situation for migrants arriving to Russia since 1992 vs. the local population. The migrants’ situation is compared by multiple indicators, depending on the duration of their residence in Russia – less than one year; one to five years; 5 years or more. It is demonstrated that the migration has no statistically significant effect on the availability of paid employment. At the same time, the sectoral structure of employment, as well as the structure of employment in terms of occupational groups, show significant differences depending on the period of migrants’ stay in Russia. Recent migrants, living in Russia for less than 5 years, are significantly more likely to work in construction and trade, and much less likely to go into healthcare, education, or public administration, compared to those who have been living in Russia for more than 5 years. At the same time, old-timer migrants are much more likely to be middle or top-level specialists, or to hold managerial positions. The most notable differences between the situations of recent and old-timer migrants, as well as the locals, can be observed in labor relations between the employee and the employer. All other things being equal, recent migrants are significantly more likely to have no formal employment contract, as opposed to old-timer migrants or the locals. The longer the migrants stay in Russia, the more they adapt to the Russian labor market, and with a sufficiently long period of residence, the labor market shows almost no difference between the situations of migrants and the locals.
    Keywords: migrants, labor market, employment structure, duration of stay
    JEL: J61 R23
    Date: 2022–10
  56. By: Ruochen Dai; Dilip Mookherjee; Kaivan Munshi; Xiaobo Zhang
    Abstract: This research examines the determinants of entrepreneurship in the initial transition from agriculture to industrial production and the subsequent transition to higher value exporting in China. Using data covering the universe of registered firms over the 1994-2009 period, we find that individuals born in rural counties with higher agricultural productivity and population density had a greater propensity to enter domestic production in the first transition, but that this association was reversed in the second transition to exporting. This is despite the fact that revenues (and productivity) were increasing more steeply over time for firms drawn from denser birth counties in both activities. The model that we develop to reconcile these facts incorporates a productivity enhancing role for hometown (birth county) networks. We provide causal evidence, using shift-share instruments, that these networks of firms were active and that more densely populated rural counties gave rise to networks that were more effective at increasing the revenues of their members, both in domestic production and exporting. While this generated faster transition in the first stage, the incumbent (more successful) domestic networks drawn from denser counties created a disincentive to subsequently enter exporting. Our analysis identifies a novel dynamic inefficiency that could arise in any developing economy where (overlapping) networks are active.
    JEL: O11 O12 O14
    Date: 2023–07
  57. By: Jeyhun Mikayilov; Abdulelah Darandary (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: One of the key benefits of understanding regional electricity consumption and its response to policy changes is enhancing the decision-making process. In Saudi Arabia, energy policies are set at the national level, and assessing their impacts at the regional level provides valuable insights for assessing the impact of previous and future policies. The regions of Saudi Arabia have unique social and economic characteristics (Mikayilov et al. 2020b) and are expected to react differently to changing policies.
    Date: 2023–06–25
  58. By: Duong, Thi Minh Phuong
    Abstract: The article employed the theoretical reasoning capacity of mindsponge theory to explore how urban residents’ subjective experiences and perceptions of pet and plant diversity in their houses can influence their beliefs about biodiversity loss.
    Date: 2023–07–21
  59. By: Amir Sufi
    Abstract: China and South Korea both experienced substantial increases in household debt through 2021, and now both countries face a weakening economy. This essay gleans lessons from the “credit-driven household demand channel” (e.g., Mian and Sufi 2018) to explore how the two economies will fare in the years ahead. On the positive side, neither country is at risk of a severe financial crisis, and both countries have a strong current account position. On the negative side, consumer spending in both countries could be quite weak in the years ahead. For China, the biggest risk is that distortions in the production sector aimed at boosting the property market were a major driver of growth during the boom, and it is unclear how growth can continue to be sustained with the property market stumbling.
    JEL: E30 G01
    Date: 2023–07
  60. By: David Atkin; Antoinette Schoar; Sumit Shinde
    Abstract: A growing literature explores the impact of home-based versus office-based work. Differences in productivity may arise due to a treatment effect of the office or from workers with different abilities sorting into office or home work. We conduct an RCT in the data entry sector in India that exogenously allocates workers to the home or office. We find that the productivity of workers randomly assigned to working from home is 18% lower than those in the office. Two-thirds of the effect manifests itself from the first day of work with the remainder due to quicker learning by office workers over time. We find negative selection effects for office-based work: workers who prefer home-based work are 12% faster and more accurate at baseline. We also find a negative selection on treatment: workers who prefer home work are substantially less productive at home than at the office (27% less compared to 13% less for workers who prefer the office). These negative selection effects are partially explained by subgroups that likely face bigger constraints on selecting into office work, such as those with children or other home care responsibilities as well as poorer households.
    JEL: J01 J10 J22 J24 J46
    Date: 2023–07
  61. By: Thibault Isambourg (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, TRANSDEV - parent); Emmanuelle Lacan (Département de la gironde)
    Abstract: Rising several issues, home-to-school mobility provides an international literature from various fields. Medical disciplines warn of decline in active travelling as a major public health problem. Social sciences study this mobility in the light of the substantial pollutant emission it generates, the role it plays in the children's quality of life and its influence on their behaviour as adults. Nevertheless, the French literature's exploration of the subject remains timid. Relying on a survey conducted in Gironde, a French department, we propose a modelling and an analysis of greenhouse gases emitted by these trips. Three factors emerge: density, gender, and communal standard of living, even after econometric control. The discussion ended by pointing out the benefits of a policy to tackle social and gender-based inequalities in mobility by promoting active transportation.
    Abstract: Par ses multiples enjeux, la mobilité scolaire quotidienne fournit une littérature internationale issue de champs divers. Les disciplines médicales alertent du déclin des modes actifs comme un problème majeur de santé publique. Les sciences sociales étudient cette mobilité à l'instar des émissions polluantes substantielles qui en sont dégagées, de la place qu'elle tient dans la qualité de vie des enfants et son influence sur les comportements qu'ils auront étant adultes. Nonobstant, l'exploration du sujet par la littérature française reste timide. À l'appui d'une enquête menée dans le Département de la Gironde, nous calculons et analysons les gaz à effet de serre rejetés par ces déplacements. Trois facteurs explicatifs ressortent : la densité, le genre et le niveau de vie, cela même après l'exercice de contrôle économétrique. Le propos est clôturé en pointant l'intérêt et les pistes d'actions d'une politique de lutte contre les inégalités sociales et genrées de mobilité par la promotion des modes actifs
    Keywords: Modal behaviour, Greenhouse gases GHG, sociospatial inequalities, Youth, Home-to-school mobility, Comportements modaux, CO2, Gaz à effet de serre (GES), Inégalités sociospatiales, Jeunes, Mobilité scolaire
    Date: 2023–06–28

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