nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2023‒08‒14
forty-nine papers chosen by
Steve Ross, University of Connecticut

  1. Local Option Sales Taxes, Metropolitan Planning Organizations, and SB 375: A Question of Priorities By Barbour, Elisa; Thoron, Noah
  2. Technology Diffusion across Regions By Sebbesen, Anja
  3. Sibling Spillovers May Enhance the Efficacy of Targeted School Policies By David N. Figlio; Krzysztof Karbownik; Umut Özek
  4. Analysis of factors that affect road traffic accidents in Bahir Dar city, North Western Ethiopia By Khan, Zahid
  5. Learning during the Pandemic: Evidence from Uzbekistan By Iqbal, Syedah Aroob; Patrinos, Harry A.
  6. Black Empowerment and White Mobilization: The Effects of the Voting Rights Act By Andrea Bernini; Giovanni Facchini; Marco Tabellini; Cecilia Testa
  7. Digitalization of the Housing Search: Homeseekers, Gatekeepers, and Market Legibility By Boeing, Geoff; Harten, Julia; Sanchez-Moyano, Rocio
  8. Furthering the Vision of the Fair Housing Act: A speech at Fair Housing at 55—Advancing a Blueprint for Equity" National Fair Housing Alliance 2023 National Conference, Washington, D.C., July 18th 2023 By Michael S. Barr
  9. Geographic and Socioeconomic Variation in Healthcare: Evidence from Migration By Péter Elek; Anita Győrfi; Nóra Kungl; Dániel Prinz
  10. Game Based Learning ?Human Body? in Greek Primary School students By Dimitris Anastasopoulos; George Sarafoglou; Eleni Tsami
  11. Aging and regional productivity growth in Germany By Bode, Eckhardt; Dohse, Dirk; Stolzenburg, Ulrich
  12. Pro-environment Attitudes and Worker Commuting Behavior By Gimenez-Nadal, José Ignacio; Molina, José Alberto; Velilla, Jorge
  13. The Spillover Effects of Top Income Inequality By Joshua D. Gottlieb; David Hémous; Jeffrey Hicks; Morten Olsen
  14. Road Maintenance and Local Economic Development By Gertler, Paul J; Gonzalez-Navarro, Marco; Gracner, Tadeja; Rothenberg, Alexander
  15. Climate Change and the Geography of the U.S. Economy By Sylvain Leduc; Daniel J. Wilson
  16. Striking evidence: The impact of railway strikes on competition from intercity bus services in Germany By Beestermöller, Matthias Gerhard; Jessen-Thiesen, Levke; Sandkamp, Alexander-Nikolai
  17. Can Leviathan City Governments Use Tax Policy to Attract the Creative Class? By Batabyal, Amitrajeet; Beladi, Hamid
  18. The Effects of Cash for Clunkers on Local Air Quality By Ines Helm; Nicolas Koch; Alexander Rohlf
  19. Immigration and support for anti-immigrant parties in Europe By Jäger, Julian
  20. Remote Work, Foreign Residents, and the Future of Global Cities By Joao Guerreiro; Sergio Rebelo; Pedro Teles
  21. Political Preferences and the Spatial Distribution of Infrastructure: Evidence from California's High-Speed Rail By Pablo D. Fajgelbaum; Cecile Gaubert; Nicole Gorton; Eduardo Morales; Edouard Schaal
  22. 2022-2023 Campus Travel Survey Telecommuting Trends: Before and After COVID 19 Pandemic By Jain, Aakansha
  23. Organized Crime, Corruption and Economic Growth By Tamara Fioroni; Andrea Mario Lavezzi; Giovanni Trovato
  24. Successful Replication of "The Long-Run Effects of Sports Club Vouchers for Primary School Children (2022)" By Bacon, Felix; Bello, Abdel-Hamid; Brown, Myriam; Morris, Todd; Renée, Laëtitia
  25. Natural Resources, Demand for Skills, and Schooling Choices By Bütikofer, Aline; Dalla-Zuanna, Antonio; Salvanes, Kjell G.
  26. Migration, Search and Skill Heterogeneity By Myrto Oikonomou
  27. How institutions shape the economic returns of public investment in European regions By Inmaculada C. Alvarez; Inmaculada C. Alvarez; Luis Orea; Andrés Rodríguez-Pose
  28. Universities that matter for regional knowledge base renewal - the role of multilevel embeddedness By Nils Grashof; Holger Graf
  29. Nobody’s gonna slow me down? The effects of a transportation cost shock on firm performance and behavior By Branco, Catarina; Dohse, Dirk C.; Pereira dos Santos, João; Tavares, José
  30. Road Maintenance and Local Economic Development: Evidence from Indonesia's Highways By Gertler, Paul J; Gonzalez-Navarro, Marco; Gracner, Tadeja; Rothenberg, Alexander
  31. State-Level Trucking Employment and the COVID-19 Pandemic in the U.S: Understanding Heterogenous Declines and Rebounds By Phares, Jonathan; Miller, Jason W.; Burks, Stephen V.
  32. Where do gazelles and high-growth firms occur in Germany? By Tomenendal, Matthias; Raffer, Christian
  33. The creation of digital innovative start-ups: the role of digital knowledge spillovers and digital skill endowment By Alessandra Colombelli; Emilio Paolucci; Elisabetta Raguseo; Gianluca Elia
  34. Law-Abiding Immigrants: The Incarceration Gap Between Immigrants and the US-born, 1850–2020 By Ran Abramitzky; Leah Platt Boustan; Elisa Jácome; Santiago Pérez; Juan David Torres
  35. Access and Exposure to Local News Media in the Digital Era: Evidence from U.S. Media Markets By Minji Bang; Lucie L'Heude; Andrew Postlewaite; Holger Sieg
  36. Enhancing Human Capital in Children: A Case Study on Scaling By Francesco Agostinelli; Ciro Avitabile; Matteo Bobba
  37. Expectation Formation, Local Sampling and Belief Traps: A new Perspective on Education Choices By Simon Gleyze; Philippe Jehiel
  38. Social segregation, misperceptions, and emergent cyclical choice patterns By Mayerhoffer, Daniel; Schulz-Gebhard, Jan
  39. Natural disasters and voter gratitude: What is the role of prevention policies? By Carla Morvan; Sonia Paty
  40. Environmental Migration and Labor Market By JANG, Youngook
  41. Drought and Migration during the Great Depression By Sichko, Christopher T.
  42. Ethnic conflict: the role of ethnic representation By Sonia Bhalotra; Irma Clots-Figueras; Lakshmi Iyer
  43. Policy Diffusion Through Elections By Hitoshi Shigeoka; Yasutora Watanabe
  44. Municipal and sub-federal debt market in Russia in 2022 By Shadrin Artem
  45. Cheaper and Faster: The Role of Air Services Agreements on Transportation By Charlotte Emlinger; Amélie Guillin
  46. Fostering Decent Jobs in MENA Countries: Segmented Employment, Occupational Mobility and Formalising Informality By Philippe Adair; Vladimir Hlasny
  47. Inequalities in regional excess mortality and life expectancy during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe By Tamás Hajdu; Judit Krekó; Csaba G. Tóth
  48. Analysis of the Dynamics of Social Interactions in an Associative Society: A Case Study in Pedagung Village, Bantarbolang District By Hasanah, Hilmatul
  49. Flood Risk Shocks, Flood Insurance, and Migration By Xiao, Keliang

  1. By: Barbour, Elisa; Thoron, Noah
    Abstract: This report considers the role of local option sales taxes (LOSTs) for transportation in influencing spending patterns in regional transportation plans adopted by Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) in California’s four largest metropolitan regions. Through quantitative analysis of information on LOST measures placed on the ballot from 1976 to 2022, and through case studies of recent LOSTs placed on the ballot in two counties, patterns in LOST expenditure by mode and purpose are compared over time and across regions, and with spending allocated by MPOs in their long-range regional transportation plans. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Law, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Local Option Sales Taxes (LOSTs), county sales tax measures for transportation, Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs), Senate Bill 375, transportation funding and finance in California
    Date: 2023–07–01
  2. By: Sebbesen, Anja
    Abstract: Until recently, the geographical coverage of empirical studies on regional technology diffusion was usually rather limited or biased towards the industrialized world. This paper extends the sample of analysis and investigates regional TFP growth and the factors determining productivity spillovers for an extensive amount of regions. Nonlinearities in the effects of the explanatory variables as well as spatial spillovers are considered in the estimation model. The findings confirm a robust direct impact of technological catch-up on regional TFP growth. Catch-up speeds increase with higher levels of human capital and in countries with larger inflows of FDI. Furthermore, positive spatial spillovers of technology levels are observed.
    Keywords: Regional TFP growth; transmission channels; spatial spillovers; human capital; spatial switching regression
    Date: 2023–07
  3. By: David N. Figlio; Krzysztof Karbownik; Umut Özek
    Abstract: Public policies often target individuals but within-family externalities of such interventions are understudied. Using a regression discontinuity design, we document how a third grade retention policy affects both the target children and their younger siblings. The policy improves test scores of both children while the spillover is up to 30% of the target child effect size. The effects are particularly pronounced in families where one of the children is disabled, for boys, and in immigrant families. Candidate mechanisms include improved classroom inputs and parental school choice.
    JEL: D13 I20 J13
    Date: 2023–06
  4. By: Khan, Zahid
    Abstract: Analysis of factors that affect road traffic accidents in Bahir Dar city, North Western Ethiopia
    Date: 2023–06–24
  5. By: Iqbal, Syedah Aroob (Consultant (World Bank and ILO)); Patrinos, Harry A. (World Bank)
    Abstract: School closures induced by the COVID-19 pandemic led to concerns about student learning. This paper evaluates the effect of school closures on student learning in Uzbekistan, using a unique dataset that allows assessing change in learning over time. The findings show that test scores in math for grade 5 students improved over time by 0.29 standard deviation despite school closures. The outcomes among students who were assessed in 2019 improved by an average of 0.72 standard deviation over the next two years, slightly lower than the expected growth of 0.80 standard deviation. The paper explores the reasons for no learning loss.
    Keywords: COVID-19, learning loss, school closures, social inequality, digital divide
    JEL: I21 I24
    Date: 2023–06
  6. By: Andrea Bernini; Giovanni Facchini; Marco Tabellini; Cecilia Testa
    Abstract: The 1965 Voting Rights Act (VRA) paved the road to Black empowerment. How did southern whites respond? Leveraging newly digitized data on county-level voter registration rates by race between 1956 and 1980, and exploiting pre-determined variation in exposure to the federal intervention, we document that the VRA increases both Black and white political participation. Consistent with the VRA triggering counter-mobilization, the surge in white registrations is concentrated where Black political empowerment is more tangible and salient due to the election of African Americans in county commissions. Additional analysis suggests that the VRA has long-lasting negative effects on whites' racial attitudes.
    JEL: D72 H70 J15 N92
    Date: 2023–07
  7. By: Boeing, Geoff (Northeastern University); Harten, Julia; Sanchez-Moyano, Rocio
    Abstract: In recent years, digitalization has reshaped the housing search. Today, online platforms facilitate housing market information exchange and expand the legibility of the housing market for sellers, buyers, landlords, and renters. Such platforms can democratize information access and diversify homeseekers’ information supplies. This in turn can expand choice sets, increase search radii, reduce search costs, and sideline traditional gatekeepers to help homeseekers realize a more efficient housing search with a superior outcome. However, certain market participants benefit more than others, and the promise of digitalization is muted by its drawbacks. This paper explores how these online platforms shape the housing search by influencing information supplies, presentation, and consumption. Tensions arise as old gatekeepers develop new strategies to maintain power in the digital realm and new gatekeepers emerge to capitalize on digital trends. Policymakers can play an important role in maintaining and developing the societal benefits of housing market digitalization while better mitigating its harms.
    Date: 2023–03–01
  8. By: Michael S. Barr
    Date: 2023–07–18
  9. By: Péter Elek (Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Corvinus University of Budapest); Anita Győrfi (Vienna Graduate School of Economics); Nóra Kungl (Vienna Graduate School of Economics); Dániel Prinz (World Bank)
    Abstract: We study variation in healthcare utilization across geographies and socioeconomic groups in Hungary. Exploiting migration across geographic regions and relying on high-quality administrative data on healthcare use and income we show that the role of place-specific supply factors is heterogeneous across types of care and across socioeconomic groups. Overall, place-specific factors account for 68% of the variation in outpatient spending and 35% of the variation in drug spending, but almost none of the variation in inpatient spending. Place effects explain four-fifth of outpatient spending variation for non-employed working-age individuals, but less than two-fifth for individuals with above-median wage incomes. There is a positive association between place effects and outpatient capacity, especially for low-income individuals. These results suggest that access to healthcare varies especially for low-income people even in a context with universal coverage.
    Keywords: healthcare utilization, healthcare supply, regional variation, socioeconomic status
    JEL: I11 I14 C23
    Date: 2023–06
  10. By: Dimitris Anastasopoulos (University of Ioannina); George Sarafoglou (University of Piraeus); Eleni Tsami (University of Piraeus)
    Abstract: The aim of this study is to make ?the human body? more friendly to primary school students. Differentiated teaching and distance game ? based teaching is not familiar to Schools (teachers and students). This survey is an innovation for the Greek Education and makes a teaching proposal in this field. The proposal is about ?the human body? and how children 6-12 years old learn to use them in their everyday life. It is known that children in these ages of 6-12 years are not familiar enough with the human body. The game is designed by a large trans-disciplinary research team from different Universities in Greece. The research team consists of mathematicians, geologists, physicists, chemists, computer scientists, doctors and biologists. The game ? based teaching guides children to learn with fun and solve problems in all school subjects, this study focus in ?Human Body?. The teaching proposal is based on the students? books of the primary school. The primary school students prefer the game-based learning, they learn easily and pleasantly. It is an initial research that started in 2021 and will be completed in 2023. The aim is to expand to all levels of education and to become the main teaching method for all students in schools.
    Keywords: Game-based learning, problem solving, primary education, human body
    JEL: I29 I21
    Date: 2022–10
  11. By: Bode, Eckhardt; Dohse, Dirk; Stolzenburg, Ulrich
    Abstract: We investigate the effects of aging on regional productivity growth, the mechanisms and the strength of which are not well-understood. We focus on two different manifestations of population aging—workforce aging and an increasing share of retirees—and investigate channels through which aging may impact on regional productivity growth for a panel of German counties 2000–2019. We find that workforce aging is more negatively associated with productivity growth in urban than in nonurban regions. A likely reason is that aging is detrimental to innovative and knowledge-intensive activities, which are heavily concentrated in cities. We also find a negative association between the share of the retired population and productivity growth in regions with a small household services sector. A likely reason is that older people’s disproportionate demand for local household services (including health care, recreation) requires a re-allocation of resources from more productive manufacturing or business services to less productive household services. Regions specialized more in highly productive industries have more to lose in this process.
    Keywords: Workforce aging, Population aging, Productivity growth, Regional analysis, Germany
    JEL: E24 J11 J24 J26 R11
    Date: 2023
  12. By: Gimenez-Nadal, José Ignacio (University of Zaragoza); Molina, José Alberto (University of Zaragoza); Velilla, Jorge (University of Zaragoza)
    Abstract: The private vehicle is, for most developed countries, the prevalent commuting mode of workers, and one of the main source of CO2 emissions. The choice of the mode of transport for commuting trips clearly depends on individual preferences, and it may be that pro-environmental attitudes and values are related to environmental awareness and minimization of harm to the environment. This paper explores how pro-environmental attitudes and values relate to commuting behaviors, using data from the American Time Use Survey for the period 2003-2019. We focus on the time spent commuting, and on commuting modes. The results show that, net of observable factors, regions in which social attitudes are more pro-environmental are related to longer commuting times, but also to a higher percentage of active commuters and public transit commuters. These results suggest that policies aimed at shifting pro-environmental social values may help in reducing the use of private vehicles and encourage green means of transport, in order to reduce the environmental costs of commuting.
    Keywords: pro-environmental attitudes, commuting time, transport mode, American Time Use Survey, American Values Survey, general social survey
    JEL: A13 Q52 R41
    Date: 2023–06
  13. By: Joshua D. Gottlieb; David Hémous; Jeffrey Hicks; Morten Olsen
    Abstract: Top income inequality in the United States has increased considerably within occupations. This phenomenon has led to a search for a common explanation. We instead develop a theory where increases in income inequality originating within a few occupations can “spill over” through consumption into others. We show theoretically that such spillovers occur when an occupation provides non divisible services to consumers, with physicians our prime example. Examining local income inequality across U.S. regions, the data suggest that such spillovers exist for physicians, dentists, and real estate agents. Estimated spillovers for other occupations are consistent with the predictions of our theory.
    Keywords: Income inequality, Assignment model, Occupational inequality, Superstars
    JEL: D31 J24 J31 O15
    Date: 2023–06
  14. By: Gertler, Paul J; Gonzalez-Navarro, Marco; Gracner, Tadeja; Rothenberg, Alexander
    Keywords: transport infrastructure, road maintenance, Economic Development
    Date: 2023–07–19
  15. By: Sylvain Leduc; Daniel J. Wilson
    Abstract: This paper examines how the spatial distribution of people and jobs in the United States has been and will be impacted by climate change. Using novel county-level weather data from 1951 to 2020, we estimate the longer-run effects of weather on local population, employment, wages, and house prices using a panel distributed lag model. The historical results point to long-lasting negative effects of extreme temperatures on each of these outcomes. We highlight that a long lag structure is necessary to appropriately capture the longer-run effects of climate change, as short-run effects are often small and imprecisely estimated. Using county-level weather projections based on alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, we use the estimated models to project the spatial distribution of these local economic outcomes out to 2050. The results point to substantial reallocations of people and jobs across the country over the next three decades, with mobility increasing by between 33 and 100 percent depending on the scenario. Population and employment are projected to shift away from the Sunbelt and toward the North and Mountain West. We document that this would, in fact, be a continuation of a historical pattern: Over the past four decades the relationship between population growth and hot climates across the United States has turned from strongly positive to slightly negative. We present a spatial equilibrium model to interpret the results, highlighting the impacts of climate change on amenities and productivity, and find significant roles for both channels in accounting for our empirical findings.
    Keywords: climate change; economy; panel data
    Date: 2023–07–13
  16. By: Beestermöller, Matthias Gerhard; Jessen-Thiesen, Levke; Sandkamp, Alexander-Nikolai
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of the largest rail strikes in German history on intercity buses - a then newly liberalised market. Using unique booking data of bus services, we exploit variation in rail service cancellations across routes to show that the disruption in rail transport increases bus ticket sales. Crucially, the effect persists beyond the strike, indicating that travellers do not return to their originally preferred mode of transport. It is particularly pronounced for passengers travelling on weekends. The findings suggest that customers were previously under-experimenting. Beyond transportation, our results highlight the importance of service reliability, as temporary disruptions can cause customers to permanently switch to competitors.
    Keywords: Experimentation, inter-modal substitution, learning, optimisation, strike, switching costs, transport
    JEL: C81 D83 L92 R41
    Date: 2023
  17. By: Batabyal, Amitrajeet; Beladi, Hamid
    Abstract: We focus on an aggregate economy of two nearby cities A and B and study whether it is possible for the leviathan governments in these two cities to use taxes τ^A and τ^B to attract members of the so-called creative class. The creative class population is fixed and members locate either in city A or B depending on the utility from such location. In this setting, we accomplish five tasks. First, given the two taxes, we determine the value of a metric ζ that describes how the creative class population partitions into cities A and B. Second, for a given partition of the creative class population, we state the budget constraints confronting the governments in cities A and B. Third, we state and solve the decision problems of the two governments when they act as independent leviathans and maximize tax revenue. Fourth, we ascertain the efficient taxes that maximize the sum of tax revenues in the aggregate economy. Finally, we discuss the implications of our analysis for tax policy.
    Keywords: Creative Class, Leviathan City Government, Tax Policy, Tax Revenue
    JEL: H20 R11 R50
    Date: 2023–01–09
  18. By: Ines Helm; Nicolas Koch; Alexander Rohlf
    Abstract: We study the effects of a large car scrappage scheme in Germany on new car purchases and local air quality by combining vehicle registration data with data on local air pollutant emissions. For identification we exploit cross-sectional variation across districts in the number of cars eligible for scrappage. The scheme had substantial effects on car purchases and did not simply reallocate demand across time in the short-term. Nevertheless, about half of all subsidized buyers benefited from windfall gains. The renewal of the car stock improved local air quality suggesting substantial mortality benefits that likely exceed the cost of the policy. While policy take-up is somewhat smaller in urban districts, improvements in air quality and health tend to be larger due to a higher car density.
    Keywords: cash for clunkers, local air quality, car scrappage schemes, emissions, car rebate
    JEL: H20 H23 Q53 Q58
    Date: 2023
  19. By: Jäger, Julian
    Abstract: My paper analyzes the link between immigration and support for anti-immigrant parties in Europe. I assemble a unique data set on the share of foreigners for 356 regions in 26 European countries and construct a novel scale for the anti-immigrant position of political parties. I find that Europeans are less supportive of anti-immigrant parties in regions with a higher share of foreigners, consistent with group contact theory. The negative association is driven by Europeans with proredistribution attitudes and is stronger among those with tertiary education, who live in the city, are in the labor force, of younger age, and female. I address several endogeneity concerns, e.g., using a shift-share instrumental variable approach, which provides evidence for a causal channel.
    Keywords: Europe, Immigration, Political preferences
    JEL: D72 J15 Z13
    Date: 2023
  20. By: Joao Guerreiro; Sergio Rebelo; Pedro Teles
    Abstract: As remote work opportunities expand, more people are seeking residence in foreign destinations. The resulting surge in foreign residents generates capital gains for property owners but negatively impacts renters and creates potentially important production, congestion, and amenities externalities. We study the optimal policy toward foreign residents in a model with key features emphasized in policy discussions. Using this model, we provide sufficient statistics to evaluate the impact of an influx of foreign residents and to calculate the tax/transfer policies required to implement the optimal policy. This policy involves implementing transfers to internalize agglomeration, congestion, and other potential externalities. Importantly, we find that it is not optimal to restrict, tax, or subsidize home purchases by foreign residents.
    JEL: H00 J61 R3 R58
    Date: 2023–06
  21. By: Pablo D. Fajgelbaum; Cecile Gaubert; Nicole Gorton; Eduardo Morales; Edouard Schaal
    Abstract: How do political preferences shape transportation policy? We study this question in the context of California's High-Speed Rail (CHSR). Combining geographic data on votes in a referendum on the CHSR with a model of its expected economic benefits, we estimate the weight of economic and non-economic considerations in voters' preferences. Then, comparing the proposed distribution of CHSR stations with alternative placements, we use a revealed-preference approach to estimate policymakers' preferences for redistribution and popular approval. While voters did respond to expected real-income benefits, non-economic factors were a more important driver of the spatial distribution of voters' preferences for the CHSR. While the voter-approved CHSR would have led to modest income gains, proposals with net income losses also would have been approved due to political preferences. For the planner, we identify strong preferences for popular approval. A politically-blind planner would have placed the stations closer to dense metro areas in California.
    JEL: D72 O18 R10 R42
    Date: 2023–07
  22. By: Jain, Aakansha
    Abstract: Every year the UC Davis Campus Travel Survey includes questions related to travel to campus during different days in the reference week. Respondents from all role groups indicate how often they travel to the campus during the reference week for school or work. They also indicate the reasons for not coming to work in-person during the same time period. Travel to campus was highly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic in the 2020-2021 school year as campus switched to remote instruction. In 2021-22, the campus returned to in-person working and instruction which led to increased physical travel. Travel to campus further increased in 2022-23 as more students and staff returned to campus for in-person learning and working. This report discusses some of the key results from the survey on questions related to physical travel to campus and reasons for no travel to campus before and after COVID-19 pandemic. It presents a comparative analysis of physical travel to campus during the reference week across three years, 2019-20, 2021-22, and 2022-23. The report also provides details on how telecommuting patterns changed before and after the pandemic among both students and employees.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, College students, Mode choice, Travel behavior, Travel surveys, Universities and colleges
    Date: 2023–06–01
  23. By: Tamara Fioroni; Andrea Mario Lavezzi; Giovanni Trovato
    Abstract: In this paper we study the relationship between organized crime, corruption and economic growth. To shed light on this nexus, we propose a growth model in which organized crime can embezzle public spending by corrupting and threatening public officers. Then we bring the empirical implications of the model to data from Italian regions, as stylized facts show that less developed regions are characterized by the highest levels of corruption and of presence of criminal organizations of Mafia-type. Our main findings are: i) the per capita GDP dynamics of Italian regions in the period considered is characterized by multiple regimes identified by the initial level of organized crime, a finding consistent with a multiple steady state growth dynamics (e.g. Durlauf and Johnson, 1995); ii) in the regions with the higher levels of organized crime the estimated share of embezzled public expenditure is higher and, moreover, public expenditure has a negative effect on per capita GDP. Differently, in the regions with lower levels of organized crime the estimated share of embezzled public expenditure is lower and the effect of public expenditure on per capita income is positive.
    Keywords: Corruption, Organized crime, Economic growth, Public expenditure
    JEL: K42 O17 R11 O23
    Date: 2023–07–01
  24. By: Bacon, Felix; Bello, Abdel-Hamid; Brown, Myriam; Morris, Todd; Renée, Laëtitia
    Abstract: Marcus, Siedler and Ziebarth (2022 American Economic Journal: Economic Policy) examine the long-run health effects of a universal sports-club voucher program that was introduced in Saxony for primary school children in 2009. In 2018, the authors designed a survey that targeted the affected cohorts and nearby cohorts in Saxony and two neighboring states, and use a differences-in-differences identification strategy that exploits variation across states and cohorts in policy exposure. The authors document that treated individuals have knowledge of the program and recall receiving and redeeming the vouchers at higher rates, but find no effects on any health outcomes or behaviors. We successfully reproduce the main results of the paper exactly using data available in the paper's replication package and new Stata and R code. We also verify the robustness of the results using different outcomes, different control variables, different sample restrictions and different inference methods.
    Date: 2023
  25. By: Bütikofer, Aline (Norwegian School of Economics); Dalla-Zuanna, Antonio (Bank of Italy); Salvanes, Kjell G. (Norwegian School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper studies the consequences of the buildup of a new economic sector—the Norwegian petroleum industry—on investment in human capital. We assess both short-term and long-term effects for a broad set of educational margins, by comparing individuals in regions exposed to the new sector with individuals in unexposed regions. Importantly, we analyze how the effects and the mechanisms change as the sector develops. Our results indicate that an initial increase in the high school dropout rate is short-lived both because dropouts get their degrees later as adults, and because later-born cohorts adapt to the new needs of the industry by enrolling more in vocational secondary education. We also observe a decrease in academic high school and college enrollment except for engineering degrees. Financial incentives to both completing high school and field of study, are the most likely channels driving these effects.
    Keywords: human capital, labor markets and school enrollment, education, skill-biased technical change
    JEL: I J
    Date: 2023–07
  26. By: Myrto Oikonomou
    Abstract: Cross-border migration can act as an important adjustment mechanism to country-specific shocks. Yet, depending on who moves, it can have unintended consequences for business cycle stability. This paper argues that the skill composition of migration plays a critical role. When migration flows become more concentrated in skilled labor an important trade-off arises. On the one hand, migration releases unemployment pressures for the origin countries. On the other hand, it generates negative compositional effects (the so-called “brain drain” effects) and skill imbalances, which reduce supply capacity in origin countries. This paper analyses quantitatively the impact of cyclical migration in an open-economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with endogenous migration flows, trade linkages, search and matching frictions, and skill heterogeneity. I apply this framework to the case of the Greek emigration wave following the European Debt Crisis. What I find is that emigration flows implied strong negative effects for capital formation, leading to more than a 15 percentage point drop in investment. Rather than stabilizing the Greek business cycle, labor mobility led to a deeper and more protracted recession.
    Keywords: Migration; Matching Frictions; Skill Heterogeneity
    Date: 2023–06–30
  27. By: Inmaculada C. Alvarez; Inmaculada C. Alvarez; Luis Orea; Andrés Rodríguez-Pose
    Abstract: In this paper, we examine the impact of institutional quality on the returns of key drivers of economic growth in 230 European Union (EU) NUTS-2 regions from 2009 to 2017. To estimate region-specific elasticities, we employ a latent class modelling approach, considering the quality of government and the degree of authority in each region as mediators. Our findings reveal significant variation in the returns to education, physical capital investment, and innovation across regions. Moreover, we observe that changes in government quality and regional authority influence the ability of EU regions to leverage different types of investment effectively. These results emphasize the importance of considering the government quality in regions where investments are made in order to maximize the returns on European Cohesion investment
    Date: 2023
  28. By: Nils Grashof (Friedrich Schiller University Jena, School of Economics and Business Administration); Holger Graf (Friedrich Schiller University Jena, School of Economics and Business Administration)
    Abstract: We analyze the role of universities or, more generally higher education institutions (HEIs), in terms of their regional and international embeddedness for regional knowledge base renewal. We assume that the introduction of radical patents in the sense of novel technological combinations contributes to the renewal of the knowledge base. For our empirical study, we combine information from patent applications, scientific publications and higher education statistics. We find that HEIs contribute most to knowledge base renewal if they have a strong research output and are locally embedded. International research embeddedness of HEIs benefits regional development only if combined with a central position in the regional network.
    Keywords: higher education institutions, universities, knowledge base renewal, radical innovation, SNA, embeddedness
    JEL: I20 I23 I25 O3 R11
    Date: 2023–07–20
  29. By: Branco, Catarina; Dohse, Dirk C.; Pereira dos Santos, João; Tavares, José
    Abstract: We study the firm-level responses to a substantial increase in transportation costs in the wake of a quasi-experiment that introduced tolls in a subset of Portuguese highways. Exploiting a unique dataset encompassing the universe of Portuguese private firms, we find that the introduction of tolls caused a substantial decrease in turnover (−10.2%) and productivity (−4.3%) in treated firms vis-à-vis firms in the comparison group. In response to the tolls, firms substantially cut employment-related expenses and purchases of other inputs. Labor costs were reduced by both employment cuts and a decrease in average wages. While firms did not increase inventory, there is some evidence for increased firm exit, in particular by firms in tradables sectors.
    Keywords: Road tolls, Infrastructure, Firm performance, Firm behavior, Location, Portugal
    JEL: R48 L25 R12
    Date: 2023
  30. By: Gertler, Paul J; Gonzalez-Navarro, Marco; Gracner, Tadeja; Rothenberg, Alexander
    Date: 2022–09–01
  31. By: Phares, Jonathan (Iowa State University); Miller, Jason W. (Michigan State University); Burks, Stephen V. (University of Minnesota, Morris)
    Abstract: Some of the U.S. states saw sharper declines in truck transportation payrolls at the onset of the COVID-19 shutdown, and others displayed differing trajectories in the rebound of truck transportation payrolls during the economic recovery. Analyzing why provides theoretical and practical insights regarding labor dynamics in the trucking sector. In this vein we extend factor market rivalry theory regarding labor dynamics in the trucking sector: we suggest that trucking firms have compound relations with demand generating sectors in that they may compete for the same workers. Sectors differ in how output changes affect both their demand for trucking freight and the extent of their labor poaching; this creates differing net effects on trucking employment. We create a state-level archival data set of truck transportation establishment payrolls from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which we combine with other archival sources. We test our hypotheses via discontinuous growth curve models estimated using the mixed effects modeling framework. Effects vary by time period and industry, but manufacturing and natural resource extraction stand out in perhaps surprising ways, and changes in demand for local freight movements are especially important. Our results align with our theory and have important implications for managers and policy makers.
    Keywords: truck transportation, motor carrier, COVID-19, pandemic shutdown, pandemic recovery, trucking employment
    JEL: J21 L92 R41
    Date: 2023–06
  32. By: Tomenendal, Matthias; Raffer, Christian
    Abstract: There is still a rather small number of studies on gazelles in Germany, home to Europe's largest economy and its capital Berlin, one of Europe's main startup hubs. In particular, a recent overview on the occurrence of gazelles in Germany, which differentiates gazelles (up to five years old) from other high-growth firms (no age restriction) is missing. Applying descriptive statistics to a data set of 5, 328 high-growth firms we provide such an overview in terms of regional and sectoral distribution of German gazelles as well as their spatial link to regional business clusters. We find that most German high-growth firms (and equally gazelles) exist in the most populated German states. They mostly exist in traditional business sectors like construction and manufacturing. Relatively more gazelles than older high-growth firms exist in the sector of further business-related services. In the sectors construction, information and communication, further business-related services, and art, entertainment and recreation, we identify weak but significant positive spatial associations between the number of cluster initiatives and the number of gazelles. No such association exists for the entirety of high-growth firms in Germany.
    Keywords: gazelles, German gazelles, high-growth firms, distribution of gazelles, occurrence of gazelles, clusters, cluster embeddedness
    Date: 2023
  33. By: Alessandra Colombelli; Emilio Paolucci; Elisabetta Raguseo (Polito - Politecnico di Torino = Polytechnic of Turin , CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon); Gianluca Elia
    Abstract: Abstract Building on the Knowledge Spillover Theory of Entrepreneurship (KSTE) and the Digital Entrepreneurial Ecosystem (DEE) approach, this paper investigates the relationship between the local availability of digital knowledge (i.e., digital knowledge spillovers and digital skill endowment) and the creation of digital innovative start-ups in Italian NUTS3 regions. The obtained results show that both elements are significant for the creation of digital innovative start-ups at the province level, and a two-fold contribution has been made: from a theory perspective, an extension of KSTE to digital settings has been used to assess the relevance of geographical issues, while, from a DEE perspective, the study contributes by empirically analyzing the specific characteristics of the local ecosystem that can affect the creation of digital innovative start-ups. Finally, we discuss the implications for entrepreneurship and technology policy at the local level.
    Keywords: Digital start-ups, Digital knowledge spillovers, Digital skill endowment, Knowledge Spillover Theory of Entrepreneurship
    Date: 2023–06–08
  34. By: Ran Abramitzky; Leah Platt Boustan; Elisa Jácome; Santiago Pérez; Juan David Torres
    Abstract: We combine full-count Census data (1850–1940) with Census/ACS samples (1950–2020) to provide the first nationally representative long-run series (1850–2020) of incarceration rates for immigrants and the US-born. As a group, immigrants had higher incarceration rates than US-born white men before 1870, similar rates between 1880-1950, and lower rates since 1960. Although there are substantial differences in incarceration by origin country, the relative decline in incarceration since 1960 occurred among immigrants from all sending regions. This decline cannot be explained by changes in immigrants’ observable characteristics or immigration policy, but may reflect immigrants’ resilience to economic shocks.
    JEL: K4 N31
    Date: 2023–07
  35. By: Minji Bang; Lucie L'Heude; Andrew Postlewaite; Holger Sieg
    Abstract: Using a new comprehensive survey of adults in large U.S. media markets we show that minority and low-skill individuals, who are heavily exposed to shocks to the local economy, typically have stronger preferences for and stronger ex- posure to local news than high-skill and white individuals. At the same time, these disadvantaged individuals have been negatively affected by the impact of the digital revolution on news provision. In particular, high-skill and white indi- viduals have more rapidly embraced online and social media while low-skill and minority individuals still heavily rely on local television and other traditional news providers. These differences in provider choices are important because the digital revolution has reduced the quality of traditional news providers while the quality and quantity of online and social media have substantially in- creased. To gain additional insights into the welfare consequence of the digital revolution and assess potential policy interventions, we develop and estimate a model of news production and demand for local news. Our model is based on a time-allocation, discrete bundle-choice framework. Our findings suggest that the loss of the local newspaper (television) reduces welfare on average by $923 ($1064) which is well above the annual subscription costs in most markets. Finally, we study policies that subsidize online or social media to offset the loss of the local newspaper or television station.
    JEL: C0 L0 P0 R0
    Date: 2023–07
  36. By: Francesco Agostinelli; Ciro Avitabile; Matteo Bobba
    Abstract: This paper provides novel insights into the science of scaling by examining an educational mentoring program in Mexico. Our analysis encompasses two separate field experiments, and takes advantage of a unique opportunity to learn from the government's implementation of the program on a large scale. While the originally implemented program at scale demonstrates limited effectiveness, the introduction of a new modality with enhanced mentor training significantly improves children's outcomes. This improvement is observed in both the field experiment and the subsequent large-scale government adoption. We also find that the new program's enhanced mentor-parent interactions stimulate parental engagement at the community-school level, which emerges as a critical factor in facilitating the program's scalability.
    JEL: C90 C93 D02 I3 J1
    Date: 2023–06
  37. By: Simon Gleyze (Uber); Philippe Jehiel (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, UCL - University College of London [London])
    Abstract: Lack of diversity in higher education is partly driven by long-run belief distortions about admission chances at elite colleges. We depart from the rational expectation framework and propose a simple model of expectation formation in which students estimate their admission chances by sampling a pool of given size τ of peers who previously applied to elite colleges. Assuming students consider peers with abil-ity as close as possible to their own, two types of inefficiencies arise in steady state: high-achieving disadvantaged students self-select out of elite colleges, and average students from advantaged families apply to elite colleges even though their true admission chances are null. We then explore the working of the model when students from several possibly dissimilar neighborhoods compete for the same positions, thereby highlighting externalities related to the comparative neighborhood com-positions. Several policy instruments such as quotas or the mixing of neighborhoods are considered.
    Date: 2023–07
  38. By: Mayerhoffer, Daniel; Schulz-Gebhard, Jan
    Abstract: This paper examines the puzzle of why economic inequality has not resulted in political countermeasures to mitigate it, and proposes that the reason is due to misperceptions of economic inequality caused by segregation in social networks. We model taxation and voting behavior with an exponential income distribution and a Random Geometric Graph-type model to represent homophily, which leads to people perceiving their own income rank and income to be close to the middle. We find that people base their beliefs about mean income on a compound of the true mean and their local perception in the network, and that higher homophily causes lower implemented tax rates, which explains why redistribution preferences appear decoupled from actual inequality. In a dynamic extension, we also demonstrate that a rich set of dynamic behaviours can emerge from rational updating beliefs about efficiency. Misperceptions not only decrease redistribution in a static setting, they also hinder agents from adapting and learning towards the unbiased tax rate in a dynamic sense. As policy implications, we suggest two measures to counteract this: educating people about the actual income distribution and promoting diversity to reduce homophily.
    Keywords: Inequality, redistribution, perception, bias, networks
    Date: 2023
  39. By: Carla Morvan (Université Lyon 2, CNRS, Université Jean Monnet Saint-Étienne, GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne UMR 5824, F-69130, Ecully, FRANCE); Sonia Paty (Université Lyon 2, CNRS, Université Jean Monnet Saint-Étienne, GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne UMR 5824, F-69130, Ecully, FRANCE)
    Abstract: Natural disasters and related prevention policies can affect voter decisions. In this study, we analyze how the occurrence of natural disasters changes voters’ behavior at municipal elections and how prevention policies can mitigate the impact of such catastrophic events on budget accounts and might potentially be rewarded by citizens in upcoming elections. We exploit original data on French municipalities where incumbents sought reelection between 2008 and 2020. To estimate the probability of re-election at the municipal level in the event of a natural disaster we apply a Heckman model based strategy to avoid selection bias. We find that the occurrence of natural disasters significantly decreases the chances of reelection of incumbent mayors. However, although we show that natural hazard prevention plans significantly mitigate the impact of catastrophic events on budget accounts, citizens do not reward such prevention policies in upcoming elections. We confirm the hypothesis of myopia: voters reward incumbents for delivering investment spending or decreasing debt but not for investing in spending on disaster preparedness.
    Keywords: Elections, natural disasters, prevention policies, natural experiment
    JEL: D72 Q54
    Date: 2023
    Abstract: This report highlights the significant impact of climate change on migration patterns and the need for Korea to prepare for the influx of climate migrants. While natural disasters have historically caused population displacement, the effects of climate change-induced slow-onset changes, such as rising sea levels and droughts, are increasingly evident. Environmental migration disrupts social, labor, and industrial structures in sending and receiving countries, particularly through labor migration, which affects wages, employment rates, production costs, commodity prices, and business cycles. The study by Jang et al. (2022) investigates regional patterns of environmental migration and the potential labor market implications. Although Korea is currently unaffected, it is projected to experience an increase in climate migrants in the near future, as Southeast Asian and South Asian countries facing climate and environmental challenges contribute significantly to Korea's migrant population. The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the socio-economic characteristics of potential migrants to develop appropriate policies to mitigate the negative impacts of this anticipated influx. By proactively addressing these challenges, Korea can better prepare for the future dynamics of climate-induced migration and its impact on society, labor markets, and industrial sectors.
    Keywords: migration; climate change; environmental migration; labor market
    Date: 2023–07–12
  41. By: Sichko, Christopher T.
    Keywords: Labor and Human Capital, International Development, Community/Rural/Urban Development
    Date: 2023
  42. By: Sonia Bhalotra; Irma Clots-Figueras; Lakshmi Iyer
    Abstract: We investigate the impact of the political representation of minority groups on the incidence of ethnic conflict in India. We code data on Hindu-Muslim violence and Muslim political representation in India and leverage quasi-random variation in legislator religion generated by the results of close elections. We find that the presence of Muslim legislators results in a large and significant decline in Hindu-Muslim conflict. The average result is driven by richer states and those with greater police strength.
    Keywords: Conflict, Violence, Religion, political representation, Elections
    Date: 2023
  43. By: Hitoshi Shigeoka; Yasutora Watanabe
    Abstract: Staggered difference-in-differences designs are pervasive in policy evaluations but little is known about the mechanisms of policy diffusion: How and why do such policies spread across jurisdictions? In this study, we highlight the role of elections in policy diffusion in settings where municipal elections are asynchronous due to historical reasons. First, we empirically show the presence of policy diffusion using neighbors’ election cycles as instruments for neighbors’ policy adoption. Second, we further demonstrate interactions of municipalities’ election cycles with neighbors’ adoption and show that they follow neighbors’ policy only during their own election timing, indicating that policy diffuses through elections.
    JEL: D04 D78 H73 H75
    Date: 2023–07
  44. By: Shadrin Artem (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: According to data released by the RF Ministry of Finance, against the backdrop of deteriorating economic dynamic, the consolidated debt of the subjects and municipalities of the Russian Federation amounted to Rb3.16 trillion, or 2.09% of GDP, as of January 1, 2023. Despite an increase by Rb 312.1 bn in nominal terms, it declined in real terms by 3.4%, or 0.9% of GDP. As of January 1, 2022, its size was Rb2.85 trillion, or 2.18% of GDP. The volume of accumulated debt of the subjects of the Russian Federation stood at Rb2.79 trillion as of early 2023, with the share of budget loans in the total volume of accumulated debt grew at an outpacing rate from 55.4% to 71.0%. Accordingly, the share of market borrowings declined: the share of accumulated debt in the form of debt securities in the total amount of accumulated debt contracted from 32.3% to 23.4%, in the form of bank loans — from 10.4% to 4.5%.
    Keywords: Russian economy, regional and municipal finances, loan market, debt market
    JEL: H71 H72 H74 H76
    Date: 2023
  45. By: Charlotte Emlinger; Amélie Guillin
    Abstract: We assess the impact of bilateral air services agreements (ASAs) on air transportation using an unique dataset providing direct observations of bilateral air transport cost and time for a standardized good, for 1, 190 country-pairs, between 2011 and 2015. Our results show that ASAs reduce transportation cost by 8% while they only impact transportation time for landlocked countries and RTA members. Our estimates also reveal that bilateral trade decreases cost of transport, which highlights the role of backhauling in air transportation.
    Keywords: Transport Cost;Transport Time;Air Services Agreements;Trade
    JEL: F14 F13 L91
  46. By: Philippe Adair; Vladimir Hlasny
    Date: 2023
  47. By: Tamás Hajdu (Centre for Economic and Regional Studies); Judit Krekó (Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Budapest Institute for Policy Analysis); Csaba G. Tóth (Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Corvinus University of Budapest)
    Abstract: Using data for 201 regions (NUTS 2) in Europe, we examine the mortality burden of the COVID-19 pandemic and how the mortality inequalities between regions changed between 2020 and 2022. We show that over the three years of the pandemic, not only did the level of excess mortality rate change considerably, but also its geographical distribution. Focusing on life expectancy as a summary measure of mortality conditions, we find that the variance of regional life expectancy increased sharply in 2021. This was due to a much higher-than-average excess mortality in regions with lower pre-pandemic life expectancy. While the life expectancy inequality has returned to its pre-pandemic level in 2022, the observed life expectancy in almost all regions is far below that expected without the pandemic.
    Keywords: COVID-19, excess mortality, life expectancy, inequality
    JEL: I10 I14 I18
    Date: 2023–06
  48. By: Hasanah, Hilmatul
    Abstract: This research examines the dynamics of social interaction in a community association located in Pedagung Village, Bantarbolang Subdistrict, Pemalang Regency. Data researcher collected through participant observation, in-depth interviews, and documentation. The results showed that social interaction in the community association of Pedagung village consists of various types of social interaction, such as cooperation, assimilation, and acculturation. This social interaction is well-established and sustainable because it is based on actual needs, effectiveness, efficiency, and self-adjustment to the truth. Furthermore, social interaction in the associative society of Pedagung village affects the social dynamics of the community by creating solidarity and cohesion.
    Date: 2023–06–16
  49. By: Xiao, Keliang
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy, Labor and Human Capital, Community/Rural/Urban Development
    Date: 2023

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