|
on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Karen Chapple; Julia Greenberg; Jackelyn Hwang; Jae Sik Jeon; Bina Shrimali; Iris Zhang |
| Abstract: | The San Francisco Bay Area is an extreme case of a constrained housing market, with job growth outpacing new housing production and resulting in supply shortages and price spikes that date back at least 30 years. The Bay Area’s structural shortage of housing that is affordable at all income levels affects the regional economy by increasing commuting and housing costs, which creates barriers to full economic participation, especially for lower income workers. An array of solutions have been considered, including subsidized housing production, affordable housing preservation, and tenant protection programs. However, there is little evaluation research available to inform which housing solutions will be most effective in stabilizing communities so that those who wish to stay are able to, even in the midst of an influx of newcomers. This study seeks to fill this gap by examining the impacts of market-rate development, subsidized development, and tenant protections, including rent stabilization and just cause for evictions protections, on movers. Specifically, this study builds two unique and cross-validated datasets on mobility and links them to a bespoke block-level housing construction database. We use granular data on individual and household mobility to assess how specific housing interventions impact both direct and indirect displacement by looking at moves both out of and into neighborhoods with different characteristics in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area. Our research reveals that new market-rate construction in a neighborhood results in a slight increase in people of all income levels moving in and moving out, i.e., churn. The increase in rates of displacement (involuntary moves) for very low- to moderate-socio-economic groups is not as high as commonly feared, at 0.5% to 2% above normal rates. However, the highest socio-economic group disproportionately benefits from new market-rate housing production—they are the least likely to move out and the most likely to move into neighborhoods with new construction. We also find that rent stabilization and just cause eviction protections help residents of the lowest socio-economic status remain in their neighborhoods. At the same time, these protections may have exclusionary impacts as we find that fewer low-income people move into neighborhoods with tenant protections. Together, these findings suggest that equitable solutions to the housing crisis will require more than just upzoning and tenant protections—these are complementary solutions, but not enough. Preserving unsubsidized affordable housing and substantially expanding social housing would help mitigate displacement and exclusion while addressing the housing affordability crisis through market rate housing production and tenant protections. Social housing is the provision of rental or homeownership units affordable at a moderate income or below, and is run by a public or nonprofit entity. To work, it would need to be widely implemented, requiring government investment at levels that match the urgency of the housing crisis. |
| Keywords: | housing; market-rate development; subsidized development; tenant protections; rent stabilization; social housing |
| Date: | 2022–03–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfcw:93849&r=ure |
| By: | Belchior, Carlos Alberto (University of Zurich); Gonzaga, Gustavo (Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio)); Ulyssea, Gabriel (University College London) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impacts of neighborhoods on the economic outcomes of adults. We exploit one of the world's largest housing lottery programs and administrative data linking lottery registration, formal employment, and access to social programs in Brazil. Receiving a house has positive impacts on housing quality and reduces household expenditures but has negative effects on beneficiaries' neighborhood characteristics. On average, the program has a negative impact on the probability of being formally employed but no effect on the quality of jobs. Poorer individuals, however, experience better formal employment outcomes and lower welfare dependency. We find no differential impacts by distance to beneficiaries' previous homes or jobs. Leveraging a double-randomization design to allocate houses, we show that there are significant differences in effects across neighborhoods and we propose a framework to estimate the relative importance of potential underlying mechanisms. Network quality, amenities and crime play a very limited role, while labor market access explains 82-93% of the observed differences in neighborhood effects. |
| Keywords: | neighborhood effects, housing programs, labor markets |
| JEL: | H75 I38 O18 R23 R38 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16113&r=ure |
| By: | Francisco Amaral (MacroFinance Lab, University of Bonn); Martin Dohmen (MacroFinance Lab, University of Bonn); Moritz Schularick (MacroFinance Lab, University of Bonn, Sciences Po Paris); Jonas Zdrzalek (University of Cologne and MacroFinance Lab, University of Bonn) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces new real estate price indices for 18 major German cities and their neighborhoods (Stadtbezirke) as well as a new composite indicator for the German housing market – the German Real Estate Index (GREIX). The series are constructed on the basis of long-run transaction level data from the Gutachteraussch¨ usse. The novel data set marks a significant advancement in promoting transparency in the German real estate market and provides researchers with an unparalleled resource to study housing market dynamics in Germany. We highlight five core insights: 1. The new indices underscore the shortcomings of existing housing price indices that tend to be unsuited to capture price cycles at higher frequency. Only the transaction level data provide a reliable reading of housing market trends at high frequencies. 2. The neighborhood data, for the first time, allow to track substantial polarization of housing markets within and across cities over the past decades. The price gap between the most and least expensive neighborhoods in Germany has more than doubled over the past 30 years, while the price gap between the most and least expensive city in our sample has almost tripled over the same period. 3. Despite the current downturn, German home owners have witnessed considerably wealth gains during the decade-long housing boom. The best performing city since 2000 was Berlin with cumulative gains after inflation of 160%. In particular homeowners in Hamburg-Eppendorf, Munich-Maxvorstadt and Berlin-Kreuzberg registered real price increases of more than 180%. For a typical 100 square meter apartment in Berlin, the associated rise in real wealth amounts to approximately 300.000 Euros. 4. Since 2022, rising interest rates have triggered a pronounced correction in the German real estate market that is still under way. In inflation-adjusted terms, some cities have already seen price drops in the vicinity of 20%, for the country as a whole prices are down by close to 15% from peak in inflation-adjusted terms, and close to 8% in nominal terms. 5. We build a state-of-the-art dynamic factor prediction model to nowcast Q2 price developments on the basis of available data. The data point to further weakness ahead, but the pace of the decline appears to be moderating. Prices are likely to decrease by additional 2% in nominal terms, bringing the decline from peak to 19% in inflation-adjusted terms for the country as a whole. |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:231&r=ure |
| By: | Gehr, Katja (University of Würzburg); Pflüger, Michael P. (University of Würzburg) |
| Abstract: | This paper extends the urban growth model of Duranton and Puga (2022) to explore the impact of cities on local firms and households and the aggregate economy of Germany. We adopt alternative micro-foundations for agglomeration economies and a non-linear specification of human capital accumulation. This allows us to characterize the social optimum and to bring the model in line with semi-endogenous growth. We also innovate by incorporating consumptive amenities and fiscal transfers into the model. On the empirical side we exploit the structural equations of the model and rich sets of micro-data for Germany's labor markets, housing rents, and household travel-to-work data, to estimate the population elasticities of urban benefits and costs. We are the first to establish elasticities for urban costs for Germany, an estimated elasticity of commuting costs with respect to distance travelled of 0.071, and an estimate for the population elasticity of travel congestion of 0.068. Our estimates for static and dynamic agglomeration elasticities are 0.017 and 0.020, respectively. We innovate on the calibration strategy to capture the important role of consumptive amenities and fiscal transfers in Germany. The model innovations and calibration are shown to be strongly supported by several pieces of evidence. Our key policy counterfactual is a proportionate increase of the population in Germany's Top Seven metropolises by 10% which implies a significant overall welfare benefit of 1.12% per person. This involves mild losses for city incumbents but strong gains for city newcomers. We also address the effects of a counter-factual shift to the social optimum and a counterfactual removal of fiscal transfers. Our final exercise evaluates the implications of cities and agglomeration economies for aggregate growth in Germany. We find that these account for 0.011 additional percentage points of growth in income per capita per year. |
| Keywords: | city systems, urban growth, agglomeration and dispersion economies, land-use regulations |
| JEL: | C52 R12 D24 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16127&r=ure |
| By: | Alex Combs; Erin Troland |
| Abstract: | This paper explores an under-studied channel for school finance inequality: property assessment. School districts have historically relied on local tax revenues (typically property taxes) to fund schools, which can generate disparities in funding across districts. Many states passed school finance reforms that give more state funding to poorer districts. These formulas typically discourage school districts from offsetting state funding by reducing local tax rates ("crowd out"). However, many reforms have not adequately addressed another source of inequality: property assessment accuracy and equity. Moreover, state reform can unintentionally subsidize property underassessment. We analyze a state government intervention to address property assessment inequities within and across school districts. We use difference-in-differences and county- and school district-level administrative data to find the intervention boosted assessments by 32 percent. Assessment equity improved substantially and local property revenues temporarily increased by 17 percent. Local fiscal and institutional capacity played a role in assessment inequity pre-reform. Our results suggest that underassessment can compound funding inequality across districts in states that rely on property wealth to fund schools. Therefore, effective state oversight in property assessments is needed to ensure the integrity of funding systems that distribute state funding to districts on the basis of their assessed property wealth. |
| Keywords: | Property assessment; school finance reform; Inequality |
| JEL: | H71 H75 I28 I24 |
| Date: | 2023–05–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2023-24&r=ure |
| By: | Naoki Tani (Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University); Yuki Uemura (Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University) |
| Abstract: | We analyze fiscal transfer policies using a quantitative spatial general equilibrium model given heterogeneous local productivities and amenities, migration of young and elderly population, and inter-regional trade. We confirm that fiscal transfers improve welfare by reducing congestion in urban areas and increasing public services and real wages in rural areas. Contrary to the literature, introducing mobility of elderly population indicates possibility of optimal transfers that enable the central government to accomplish welfare gains without sacrificing national output. We calibrate the model to the Japanese economy and conduct some counterfactual simulations. The results show that Japans’ central government’s current fiscal transfers improve welfare of young and old population by 17.5% and 20.4%, respectively, compared with a zero-transfer case. However, they reduce national output by 12.5%. If the central government makes the transfers at a uniform rate across regions, it improves welfare of working and old population by 20.3% and 27.2%, respectively, compared with the zero-transfer case, without reducing the national output. |
| Keywords: | Economic geography; Place-based policies; Population aging; Agglomeration force |
| JEL: | H20 H77 R12 R13 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:1093&r=ure |
| By: | Tilley, Lucas (The Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI)) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies a large-scale educational expansion to evaluate whether shocks to school inputs have an impact on the academic achievement of adult education students. I analyze the spillover effects of a Swedish policy that temporarily doubled enrollment in adult education, thus putting considerable strain on school inputs. Since the policy targeted individuals age 25 and over, my analysis focuses on individuals under age 25 to mitigate concerns that changes in student composition drive my findings. First, I establish that students in regions subject to larger enrollment shocks experienced stronger negative shocks to peer quality and school resources such as teacher credentials and perpupil expenditure. Then, I show that the stronger negative shocks to peer quality and school resources coincided with larger increases in course dropout. Taken together, the two sets of results suggest a causal link between school inputs and course dropout. |
| Keywords: | adult education; educational expansion; per-pupil spending; school resources; student achievement; teacher credentials |
| JEL: | I20 I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2023–04–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2023_009&r=ure |
| By: | Constant, Amelie F.; Schüller, Simone; Zimmermann, Klaus F. |
| Abstract: | The role of ethnic clustering in ethnic identity formation has remained unexplored, mainly due to missing detailed data. This study closes the knowledge gap for Germany by employing a unique combination of datasets, the survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel and disaggregated information at low geographical levels from the last two but still unexploited full German censuses, 1970 and 1987. Utilizing the exogenous placement of immigrants during the recruitment era in the 1960s and 1970s we find that local co-ethnic concentration affects immigrants' ethnic identity. While residential ethnic clustering strengthens immigrants' retention of an affiliation with their origin (minority identity), it weakens identification with the host society (majority identity). The effects are nonlinear and become significant only at relatively high levels of co-ethnic concentration for the minority identity and at very low levels of local concentration for the majority identity. The findings are robust to an instrumental variable approach. |
| Keywords: | ethnic minorities, residential segregation, ethnic identity, spatial dispersion, ethnic clustering, ethnic enclaves |
| JEL: | J15 R23 Z10 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1282&r=ure |
| By: | Gerard Domènech-Arumí |
| Abstract: | I use registry data and an original survey recording exact addresses to study the effects of neighborhood immigration on perceptions and preferences for redistribution in Barcelona. Exposure to European or American migrants is associated with lower perceived immigration and more redistribution demand. The opposite is true for Asian or African migrants. Quasi-random variation in exposure to new immigrant inflows in the neighborhood largely confirms descriptive results and suggests that sizeable inflows increase the support for anti-immigration parties. Differences inincome, language, and skin tone between immigrants and natives are mechanisms at play. This work highlights new implications of racial segregation. |
| Keywords: | Neighborhood Characteristics, Migration, Redistribution |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/359122&r=ure |
| By: | Carlos Cañizares Martínez |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to empirically identify the state of the US housing market and to set state-dependent policy rules to smooth the housing cycle. I do so by estimating a three states Markov-switching model of housing prices in which mortgage debt is the state-dependent variable. As a result, the housing market state might be classified as being in housing booms fueled by credit, normal or implosion times. Second, I propose a state-contingent policy rule fed with the probabilities of being in each state. I apply such rule to set a housing countercyclical capital buffer (SCCyB) and a time-varying home mortgage interest deduction rule. Finally, I show that such rules have forecasting ability to predict the charge-off rates on real estate residential loans. The significance of this study is that it informs policymakers about the state of the housing market mechanically while it also provides a simple rule that allows the implementation of state-contingent macroprudential policy. Further, the structure of such rule is general enough to be applied to other policy tools. |
| Keywords: | Housing prices, non-linear modeling, Markov switching model, housing demand, household debt, macroprudential policy. |
| JEL: | C22 C24 G51 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mib:wpaper:513&r=ure |
| By: | Paolo Emilio Mistrulli (Bank of Italy); Md Taslim Uddin (Independent University Bangladesh); Alberto Zazzaro (University of Naples Federico II, CSEF and MoFiR.) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we explore empirically whether immigrants, other things being equal, pay more for mortgages than natives and whether the probability that banks approve their loan applications is systematically lower. To this aim, we use two extensive and unique dataset of mortgage contracts and banks’ requests for initial information about potential mortgagors drawn from the Italian Credit Register for the period 2011-2016, and survey data from the Survey on Household Income and Wealth conducted by the Bank of Italy for the period 2006-2016. We find that immigrants pay 19-24 basis points more than native Italians on single-name mortgages and 28-40 basis points more on jointly-owned ones. This interest rate gap narrows significantly, but does not disappear, when immigrant borrowers’ credit history lengthens or if they borrow from a cooperative bank. Finally we find that immigrants have a 2.7% smaller chance of getting a mortgage compared to natives, which decreases for mortgage applications submitted to cooperative banks. Overall, our findings suggest that the disparity of treatment of immigrants in the Italian mortgage market is mostly due to a greater difficulty of banks in assessing the credit-worthiness of culturally distant borrowers. However, we also detect that cultural distance may fuel persistent disparity between migrants and natives. |
| Keywords: | Immigrants; discrimination; mortgage lending; interest rates; loan approval. |
| JEL: | G21 J15 J71 |
| Date: | 2023–05–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:675&r=ure |
| By: | Francesco Andreoli (Department of Economics (University of Verona)); Vincenzo Prete (Department of Economics (University of Verona)); Claudio Zoli (Department of Economics (University of Verona)) |
| Abstract: | We develop dominance criteria to assess the patterns of residential ethnic segregation and urban income deprivation across neighborhoods of a city. The results combine aggregate information on inequality and residential segregation within neighborhoods and disparities across neighborhoods in average incomes. We use this methodology to investigate the dynamic of these phenomena in four American Metropolitan Statistical Areas from 1990 to 2012. |
| Keywords: | Deprivation, Segregation, Spatial Inequality |
| JEL: | D31 D63 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ver:wpaper:03/2023&r=ure |
| By: | Loviglio, Annalisa (University of Bologna) |
| Abstract: | I study how schools impact student performance and educational attainment throughout secondary education, and show that school quality cannot be easily captured by any type of rankings because students with differing characteristics and abilities benefit from different school inputs. To do so, I estimate a dynamic structural model of cognitive skills accumulation and schooling decision using rich administrative data from middle schools in Barcelona. I then simulate the outcomes that each student would have achieved in every school in the sample. Notably, the school environment has a crucial impact on the educational attainment of students from less advantaged family background and low-ability students who are at greater risk of leaving school. Moreover, the schools that would yield the highest final test scores for these students – provided they do not drop out – are not the ones that would maximize their likelihood of graduating and enrolling in further education. The results suggest that evaluating and comparing schools using only standardized assessments is insufficient for serving the needs of disadvantaged students, who require schools that enhance educational attainment rather than just test scores. |
| Keywords: | school value-added, educational choices, educational attainment, retention |
| JEL: | I20 J24 C35 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16111&r=ure |
| By: | Michael Klien; Peter Huber; Peter Reschenhofer; Gerlinde Gutheil-Knopp-Kirchwald; Gerald Kössl (Austrian Federation of Limited-Profit Housing Associations) |
| Abstract: | This Research Brief provides an overview of the main findings of the study "The Price-Dampening Effect of Non-profit Housing". The study examined the impact of non-profit housing in Austria on the for-profit housing segment in a historical and regional perspective. The focus was on rental housing. By analysing micro census and register data from the last 50 years, the study concludes that non-profit housing associations have a significant impact on the overall Austrian housing market, both in terms of quality and rent levels. It has been shown that a 10 percent increase in the share of non-profit housing associations leads to an average decrease in non-regulated rents of 30 to 40 cents per m2. On average, this corresponds to about 5 percent cheaper rents in the non-regulated rental sector due to the price-dampening effect of GBV. |
| Keywords: | Austria, Housing, Rent, Ownership, Prices |
| Date: | 2023–05–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:rbrief:y:2023:i:6&r=ure |
| By: | Jaller, Miguel; Qian, Xiaodong; Joby, Raina; Xiao, Runhua Ivan |
| Abstract: | This research studies the potential of bikeshare services to bridge the gap between Affordable Housing Communities (AHC) and transit services to improve transport accessibility of the residents. In doing so, the study develops an agent-based simulation optimization modeling (ABM) framework for the optimal design of the bikesharing station network considering improving accessibility as the objective. The study discusses measures of accessibility and uses travel times in a multi-modal network. Focusing on the city of Sacramento, CA, the study gathered information related to affordable housing communities, detailed transit services, demographic information, and other relevant data. This ABM framework is used to run three stages of travel demand modelling: trip generation, trip distribution and mode split to find the travel time differences under the availability of new bikesharing stations. The model is solved with a genetic algorithm approach. The results of the optimization and ABM-based simulation indicate the share of bike and bike & transit trips in the network under different scenarios. Key results indicate that about 60% of the AHCs are within 25-minute active travel time when the number of stations range from 25 to 75, and when the number of stations is increased to 100, most AHCs are within 40 mins of active mode distance and all of them are less than an hour away. In terms of accessibility, for example, having a larger network of stations (e.g., 100) increases by 70% the number of Points of Interest (for work, health, recreation, and other) within a 30-minute travel time. This report then provides some general recommendations for the planning of the bikesharing network considering information about destination choices as well as highlighting the past and current challenges in housing and transit planning. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Affordable housing, bikeshare, transit, accessibility |
| Date: | 2023–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9mp4g0xz&r=ure |
| By: | William J. Collins; Gregory Niemesh |
| Abstract: | Income and home ownership both surged in the United States between 1940 and 1960. We use cross-place variation in changes in real income to assess the importance of income gains to the mid-century home ownership boom. OLS and IV estimates suggest that a large share of the overall increase in home ownership was attributable to wage gains that were both large on average and widely spread across workers. This research complements the literatures on how New Deal mortgage market innovations and the World War II and Korean War GI Bills promoted home ownership in this period. |
| JEL: | J31 N32 N92 R21 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31249&r=ure |
| By: | Ahm Mehbub Anwar; Abu Toasin Oakil; Abdelrahman Muhsen; Anvita Arora (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | The Riyadh metro system is being implemented as a sustainable transport option that will offer reliable, affordable and comfortable urban mobility. It is important to understand the factors influencing the likelihood that people will use the new metro system. Thus, this study’s key objective is to investigate the underlying factors that drive people to use the metro instead of their current transport modes. |
| Keywords: | Land use -Transport interaction, Spatial economice model, Transit Oriented Development, Urban energy model |
| Date: | 2023–11–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2022-dp17&r=ure |
| By: | Singhal, Puja; Sommer, Stephan; Kaestner, Kathrin; Pahle, Michael |
| Abstract: | Rental housing where tenants are responsible for their own energy bills but landlords are responsible for energy retrofits may pose a particular challenge in achieving optimal rates of investments in energy efficiency. In this paper, we investigate the severity of this split-incentive problem in thermal efficiency investments in the German housing market, where the share of renters is among the highest in the European Union and the majority of rented apartments is owned by private individuals. Using data on energy performance scores from Germany's largest online housing market platform between 2019 and 2021, we find economically small differences in the energy efficiency levels between apartments that are offered for sale for own use compared to those that are rented out on the housing market. These findings suggest that there may not be a critical energy efficiency deficit due to the high share of renters in the multi apartment building sector. |
| Keywords: | Energy efficiency, split-incentives, housing market, owner-renter problem |
| JEL: | Q41 Q50 Q54 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:992&r=ure |
| By: | Kusum Mundra; Ruth Uwaifo Oyelere |
| Abstract: | Housing is a basic need and is intricately connected to a household’s health and wellness. The current pandemic has exposed the housing vulnerability for certain subgroups of the population and further jeopardized these household’s health and stability. Using the Household Pulse Survey (HPS) launched by the US Census Bureau in April 2020, we examine the correlates of housing vulnerability during the pandemic. We explore both subjective and objective measures of vulnerability. We find that households who said they tend to worry more frequently are significantly more housing vulnerable and this is more acute for renters. We explore heterogeneity in the evolution of housing vulnerability along demographic characteristics such as ethnicity and housing type (renter vs owner) during the pandemic. Our main results suggest that an individual’s perception on their housing vulnerability in the immediate future is on average higher than the objective evaluation of their current vulnerability. In addition, not being employed, lower levels of education and household size all increase home vulnerability. We also find significant heterogeneity across race in the evolution of vulnerability during the pandemic (2000-2022) with a “chilling effect” on Asians. |
| Keywords: | Renter, Homeowner, Housing vulnerability, Pandemic, Ethnicity, Asian |
| JEL: | R2 R3 J10 I31 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:run:wpaper:2023-003&r=ure |
| By: | Camilla Mastromarco; Laura Serlenga; Yongcheol Shin |
| Abstract: | We develop a unified stochastic frontier model which controls for the local spatial correlation and the global factor dependence as well as parameter heterogeneity, simultaneously. We then propose the regional productivity network analysis to examine the diffusion impacts of the capital intensity on the labour productivity in the EU. We apply the proposed approach to the dataset consisting of 202 regions in the EU15 countries over 1980-2019, and convincingly unveil that the technological shock diffuses from efficient regions operating on or near the frontier to inefficient regions. This suggests that policies to enhance domestic absorption capacity appear better suited to net receivers of technological shocks whilst policies to attract more R&D investments are appropriate to their transmitters. In this regard we stress the importance of investing European funds in peripheral regions to address regional inequality and polarisation. |
| Keywords: | spatial stochastic frontier model with factors and heterogeneity, CCEX-IV estimator, regional productivity network analysis in the EU, efficiency clusters |
| JEL: | C13 C33 D24 O47 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10404&r=ure |
| By: | Walls, Margaret A. (Resources for the Future); Wibbenmeyer, Matthew (Resources for the Future); Lennon, Connor; Ma, Lala |
| Abstract: | Damages from wildfires have increased dramatically in recent years. This study uses a boundary discontinuity design to estimate the effect of wildfire hazard disclosure on house prices. Using the universe of single-family sales transactions from the Zillow ZTRAX program in California from 2015 through 2022, we find that, on average, homes that faced disclosure requirements sold for approximately 4.3 percent less than nearby homes that did not. Price impacts are higher in recent years, following several damaging wildfires. Our findings highlight the use of disclosure regulations to ensure that disaster risks are reflected in housing markets. |
| Date: | 2023–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-23-26&r=ure |
| By: | Jorge E. Galán (Banco de España); Matías Lamas (Banco de España); Raquel Vegas (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | In this study we disentangle the effect of roots from other confounding factors to explain differences in immigrants’ outcomes in the mortgage market. Using loan-level data from the Spanish Credit Register complemented with data on securitized mortgages over a complete financial cycle, we identify that foreign-born borrowers with shallow roots to the host country pay higher mortgage rates at origination than similar debtors that are better-settled. We also find that weak roots are associated with higher default rates and with greater incentives to go into default in negative equity situations. Overall, we show that rootedness explains differential loan conditions at origination and default behavior in mortgages. From a policy perspective, our results have important implications for understanding the potential consequences of moving away from recourse mortgage regimes, and for the effectiveness of macroprudential policy. |
| Keywords: | immigrants, mortgage terms, recourse mortgages, roots, strategic default. |
| JEL: | C25 J15 G21 R20 R30 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2203&r=ure |
| By: | Debora Di Gioacchino; Laura Sabani; Stefano Usai |
| Abstract: | Using survey data, we contribute to the literature on temporal evolution of educational attainment by parental background by providing the estimates of the intergenerational education mobility in Italian regions across seven birth cohorts. Results of intergenerational correlation between parents and children’s education show that in the last fifty years mobility increased in almost all regions, although for the youngest cohorts this decline seems to have ended. Northeast regions and Central regions are the most mobile, followed by Northwest and South regions. This pattern is robust to alternative measures of relative mobility. As expected, we find that - at least for the youngest cohorts - there is a negative correlation between mobility and economic factors such as unemployment and poverty. This suggests that credit constraints explain bottom tail persistence in education. A positive correlation between the intergenerational education mobility and the degree of inequality as measured by the GINI coefficient exists across Italian regions, consistent with the "Great Gatsby curve" documented across countries. In addition, we find a positive association between mobility, indexes of social capital and the number of graduates in the regions. Measures of school quality (PISA test) are positively correlated with regional educational mobility. |
| Keywords: | EIntergenerational Mobility; Education and Inequality; Italy; Geography |
| JEL: | J62 I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp240&r=ure |
| By: | Francisco B. Galarza; Joanna Kámiche Zegarra; Rosario Gómez |
| Abstract: | We study the role of subnational institutions in forest conservation in a context in which areas near roads are prone to deforestation. We develop an index of institutionalism to examine the extent to which local institutions can contribute to mitigate the road infrastructure’s adverse effect on deforestation. Using a large dataset from Peru, home to the second largest portion of the Amazon rainforest, we find that a higher value of our index of local institutions is significantly correlated with lower deforestation. However, the effect of our institutions index is not sufficiently large to offset the deforesting effect that closeness to roads has, at least not for relatively short distances to road. These results are robust to different specifications of our institutions index and to the inclusion of a large set of control variables. |
| Keywords: | Environment and development, deforestation, infrastructure, institutions |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apc:wpaper:192&r=ure |
| By: | Murray, Cameron (The University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | There is widespread confusion in policy debates about housing supply and price when it comes to the process of housing development, specifically, who chooses to develop housing and how that housing gets approved by relevant public agencies. The first confusion is that is it commonly assumed or implied that the choice to build housing is made by builders of housing, the construction companies, who want to maximise their turnover. This is wrong. Only property owners can choose to build new homes. The incentive of property owners is not to maximise the rate of new dwelling development, but the total economic return on their property rights over time. The second confusion is to ignore the difference between development approvals (DAs) and building approvals (BAs), sometimes known as construction certificates. Development approvals are given to property owners who choose to apply to assess their proposed project against the planning system if needed for their intended use. They happen at an early stage in the process of developing property, usually prior to pre-sales. They are flexible and while bound by zoning codes, processes exist in the planning system to permit projects that exceed zoning codes, and a property can be granted multiple planning approvals over time. Across the property market, a large buffer stock of projects with development approval exists at any point in time, which allows developers to easily adjust sales rates, and later construction rates, to match highly variable market cycles. Building approvals happen later in the development process, after a planning approval (if required) and after pre-sales have demonstrated market demand. It is the last regulatory step prior to construction and a buffer stock of these approvals is not maintained. |
| Date: | 2023–05–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:8tb7v&r=ure |
| By: | Christian Dustmann; Rasmus Landersø; Lars Højsgaard Andersen |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effects of Denmark’s Start Aid welfare reform that targets refugees. Implemented in 2002, it enables us to study not only the reform’s immediate effects, but also its longer-term consequences, and its repeal a decade later. The reform-induced large transfer cuts led to an increase in employment rates, but only in the short run. Overall, the reform increased poverty rates and led to a rise in subsistence crime. Moreover, local demand conditions generate substantial heterogeneity in the reform’s effects on immediate and longer-term employment. |
| Keywords: | social assistance, welfare state, labor market outcomes, labor demand, migration |
| JEL: | E64 I30 J60 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10386&r=ure |
| By: | Alessio Baldassarre (Ministry of Economy and Finance); Danilo Carullo (Ministry of Economy and Finance); Paolo Di Caro (University of Catania); Elisa Fusco (Sogei SpA Italy); Pasquale Giacobbe (University of Calabria); Carlo Orecchia (Ministry of Economy and Finance) |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of this paper is to present an innovative approach to estimate the Italian inter-regional trade flows in terms of final and intermediate consumption. It contributes to the literature in several ways. The first innovative feature concerns the data used in the analysis. We reconstruct the flow of households’ final consumption by using administrative data from the Italian VAT returns. The result is then used for estimating a traditional gravity model for final consumption trade; the estimated coefficients are furtherly exploited to compute the flows of intermediate consumption. The second contribution relates to the modeling approach: we combine the literature on gravity models with a spatial autoregressive specification, to take into account spatial dependence in the bilateral flows, and a geographically weighted regression estimator, to control for behavioral instability of data over space. In addition to that, our model controls for commodity dependence by including them as a fixed effect in a pseudo-panel view, where the time dimension captures the commodities dynamics. Therefore, the strategy here introduced is useful to consider both local level economic relations and spillovers, existing between regions, and the link among different types of products. |
| Keywords: | Inter-regional flows; Gravity models; O-D Spatial autoregressive models; Geographically Weighted Regression |
| JEL: | C21 D57 R15 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahg:wpaper:wp2023-18&r=ure |
| By: | Mario Alloza (Banco de España); Víctor González-Díez (Banco de España); Enrique Moral-Benito (Banco de España); Patrocinio Tello-Casas (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the differences in accessibility to services between rural and urban areas in EU countries. According to our analysis, rural areas in Spain have worse accessibility to services than their European counterparts, while the differences are not significant in the case of urban areas. The availability of information at the municipal level in Spain means a deficit in the accessibility to services of rural as opposed to urban municipalities may be documented within each region. There are also some idiosyncrasies in the remoteness and fiscal structures of rural municipalities that might partly explain this deficit. |
| Keywords: | services accessibility, rural areas, urban areas, Spain |
| JEL: | R10 I31 J11 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:opaper:2122e&r=ure |
| By: | Rémy Le Boennec (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Following the Covid-19 pandemic, many working from home (WFH) arrangements have been contracted between firms and working households. While firms can save space at the workplace, additional housing surface areas are required for home-based activities. Can these partial transfers of activities from work- to residential places be compatible with urban sprawl containment? In this paper, we use a standard urban economics monocentric model to determine the extent to which urban sprawl containment may be achieved despite WFH, depending on the type of agent that pays for the additional housing costs required for home-based activities. We compare three WFH scenarios with a reference case without WFH: (1) If additional housing costs are entirely paid by households, (2) If such costs are entirely paid by firms, and (3) If they are partially paid by firms (for the share of home-based activities only). We emphasize two main results: first, a better urban sprawl containment is achieved in the case where households pay for the additional housing surface areas required to perform home-based activities, compared to the case where firms partially or totally pay for these additional costs; second, urban sprawl containment may even be better achieved in this scenario compared with the reference case (without WFH arrangements) at a specific double condition that must be fulfilled by the wage rate. |
| Keywords: | Working from home, Home-based activities, Urban sprawl, Urban economics, Monocentric model, Commuting cost |
| Date: | 2023–05–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04095748&r=ure |
| By: | Volker, Jamey M.B. Ph.D; Hosseinzade, Reyhane; Handy, Susan L. Ph.D |
| Abstract: | In 2018, pursuant to Senate Bill (SB) 743 (2013), the Governor’s Office of Planning and Research (OPR) and the California NaturalResources Agency promulgated regulations and technical guidance that eliminated automobile level of service (LOS) as a transportation impact metric for land development projects under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA), and replaced it with Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT). The authors investigated how local governments have been implementing the LOS-to-VMT shift for land development projects, and how that differs from past practice. They also explored whether local governments monitor the actual VMT impacts from completed land use developments and what methods are available to do so. Their findings indicate that all responding jurisdictions acknowledged the mandatory LOS-to-VMT shift, but were in varying stages ofimplementing the shift. For those jurisdictions that had adopted VMT impact significance thresholds, most adhered closely to OPR’s recommendations. They also mostly tried to use apples-to-apples methods of calculating baseline VMT levels (for setting thresholds) and estimating project-level VMT, often relying on travel demand model outputs for both. However, most jurisdictions gave short shrift to VMT monitoring. Another important aspect of SB 743 implementation is how LOS will continue to be used outside of CEQA. The authors found that jurisdictions uniformly continue to employ LOS outside of CEQA. However, those LOS analyses are not necessarily as comprehensive and expensive as they would have been for CEQA purposes. The authors found a consensus amongst their interviewees that swapping LOS for VMT could streamline development in urban areas. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Law, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Vehicle miles traveled, VMT estimation, VMT mitigation, VMT monitoring, level of service, CEQA, environmental review |
| Date: | 2023–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt01f8m0xn&r=ure |
| By: | Gary Koop; Gary Koop; Stuart McIntyre; James Mitchell; Aubrey Poon; Ping Wu |
| Abstract: | Interest in regional economic issues coupled with advances in administrative data is driving the creation of new regional economic data. Many of these data series could be useful for nowcasting regional economic activity, but they suffer from a short (albeit constantly expanding) time series which makes incorporating them into nowcasting models problematic. Regional nowcasting is already challenging because the release delay on regional data tends to be greater than that at the national level, and "short" data imply a "ragged edge" at both the beginning and the end of regional data sets, which adds a further complication. In this paper, via an application to the UK, we develop methods to include a wide range of short data into a regional mixed-frequency VAR model. These short data include hitherto unexploited regional VAT turnover data. We address the problem of the ragged edge at both the beginning and end of our sample by estimating regional factors using different missing data algorithms that we then incorporate into our mixed-frequency VAR model. We find that nowcasts of regional output growth are generally improved when we condition them on the factors, but only when the regional nowcasts are produced before the national (UK-wide) output growth data are published. |
| Keywords: | Regional data; Mixed-frequency data; Missing data; Nowcasting; Factors; Bayesian methods; Real-time data; Vector autoregressions |
| JEL: | C32 C53 E37 |
| Date: | 2023–05–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:96086&r=ure |
| By: | Marisa Hidalgo-Hidalgo (Department of Economics, Universidad Pablo de Olavide); Dunia López-Pintado (Department of Economics, Universidad Pablo de Olavide) |
| Abstract: | We present new evidence on ability peer effects in education focusing on a context where first-year students from a Spanish university are randomly organized into pairs within their classroom to collaborate on activities throughout the semester. We focus on how the composition of the pair according to abilities determines collaborative (the activities realized in pairs) and individual (the final exam) achievements. We find positive pair peer effects for the collaborative outcomes, but negative pair peer effects for the individual score. That is, the higher the ability of the partner, the lower one's outcome in the final exam. This second finding is stronger the larger the difference in ability and is mainly driven by men when interacting with other more able men. |
| Keywords: | peer effects, higher education, gender, collaborative tasks. |
| JEL: | D62 I21 I23 J16 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pab:wpaper:23.07&r=ure |
| By: | Matthew S. Jaremski; David C. Wheelock |
| Abstract: | This paper provides quantitative evidence on interbank transmission of financial distress in the Panic of 1907 and ensuing recession. Originating in New York City, the panic led to payment suspensions and emergency currency issuance in many cities. Data on the universe of interbank connections show that i) suspension was more likely in cities whose banks had closer ties to banks at the center of the panic, ii) banks with such links were more likely to close in the panic and recession, and iii) banks responded to the panic by rearranging their correspondent relationships, with implications for network structure. |
| JEL: | E44 G21 N11 N12 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31270&r=ure |
| By: | Foged, Mette (University of Copenhagen); van der Werf, Cynthia (Inter-American Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether language classes raises refugees' language proficiency and improves their socio-economic integration. Our identification strategy leverages the opening, closing, and gradual expansion of local language training centers in Denmark, as well as the quasi-random assignment of the refugees to locations with varying proximity to a language training center. First, we show that refugees' distance from the assigned language training center is as good as random conditional on initial placement. Second, we show that a one-hour decrease in commuting time increases total hours of class attended by 46 to 71. Third, we use this novel identification strategy to show that 100 additional hours of language class increases fluency in the Danish language by 8-9 percent, post-language training human capital acquisition by 11-13 percent and improve the integration of the refugees in the communities where they were initially placed, as measured by the lower exit rates from those same communities and an almost 70 percent reduction in mobility to the largest, most immigrant-dense cities in Denmark. |
| Keywords: | refugee integration, language skills |
| JEL: | J60 J24 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16091&r=ure |
| By: | Lorenzo Lucchini; Ollin Langle-Chimal; Lorenzo Candeago; Lucio Melito; Alex Chunet; Aleister Montfort; Bruno Lepri; Nancy Lozano-Gracia; Samuel P. Fraiberger |
| Abstract: | Mobile phone data have played a key role in quantifying human mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic. Existing studies on mobility patterns have primarily focused on regional aggregates in high-income countries, obfuscating the accentuated impact of the pandemic on the most vulnerable populations. By combining geolocation data from mobile phones and population census for 6 middle-income countries across 3 continents between March and December 2020, we uncovered common disparities in the behavioral response to the pandemic across socioeconomic groups. When the pandemic hit, urban users living in low-wealth neighborhoods were less likely to respond by self-isolating at home, relocating to rural areas, or refraining from commuting to work. The gap in the behavioral responses between socioeconomic groups persisted during the entire observation period. Among low-wealth users, those who used to commute to work in high-wealth neighborhoods pre-pandemic were particularly at risk, facing both the reduction in activity in high-wealth neighborhood and being more likely to be affected by public transport closures due to their longer commute. While confinement policies were predominantly country-wide, these results suggest a role for place-based policies informed by mobility data to target aid to the most vulnerable. |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2305.06888&r=ure |
| By: | Shaheen, Susan PhD; Martin, Elliot PhD; Stocker, Adam |
| Abstract: | Transportation Network Companies (TNCs, also known as ridehailing and ridesourcing) have expanded across California over the past decade and changed the way people travel. Using a smartphone, travelers can quickly summon a vehicle from almost anywhere and know what the estimated wait time, travel time, and cost will be before stepping into the vehicle. While TNCs are clearly addressing an unmet need for travelers, their growing popularity has raised a number of policy questions, including if TNCs are shifting people away from public transit and other travel modes (e.g., carshare, walking, biking). |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2023–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt6rb1j5wb&r=ure |
| By: | Lena Abou El-Komboz (ifo Institute, LMU Munich); Thomas Fackler (ifo Institute, LMU Munich, CESifo, Laboratory for Innovation Science at Harvard) |
| Abstract: | Software engineering is a field with strong geographic concentration, with Silicon Valley as the epitome of a tech cluster. Yet, most studies on the productivity effects of agglomerations measure innovation with patent data, thus capturing only a fraction of the industry's activity. With data from the open source platform GitHub, our study contributes an alternative proxy for productivity, complementing the literature by covering a broad range of software engineering. With user activity data covering the years 2015 to 2021, we relate cluster size to an individual's productivity. Our findings suggest that physical proximity to a large number of other knowledge workers in the same field leads to spillovers, increasing productivity considerably. In further analyses, we confirm the causal relationship with an IV approach and study heterogeneities by cluster size, initial productivity and project characteristics. |
| Keywords: | agglomeration effects; knowledge spillovers; open source; online collaboration; |
| JEL: | D62 J24 O33 O36 R32 |
| Date: | 2023–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:399&r=ure |
| By: | Ying Chen (University of Nottingham Ningbo China); Tom Lane (University of Nottingham Ningbo China); Stuart McDonald (University of Nottingham Ningbo China) |
| Abstract: | We experimentally explore public good production levels, and the endogenous formation of network structures to facilitate output sharing, among agents with heterogeneous production costs or valuations. Results corroborate the key theoretical insights of Kinateder & Merlino (2017) characterizing how agents form core-periphery networks. However, subjects often produce more and form denser networks than predicted, which sometimes reduces efficiency. There is some tendency for behaviour to converge towards the theoretical equilibrium over repeated play. Our results help us understand the emergence of the ‘law of the few’ in realworld networks, and suggest it is driven by endogenous sorting of heterogeneous agents. |
| Keywords: | Local public goods; Network formation; Experiment; Heterogeneity |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notcdx:2023-02&r=ure |
| By: | Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina (University of California, Merced); Ibanez, Ana Maria (Inter-American Development Bank); Rozo, Sandra V. (World Bank); Traettino, Salvador (Inter-American Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | How do policies that ease the integration of immigrants shape their fertility decisions? We use a panel survey of undocumented Venezuelan migrants in Colombia to compare the fertility decisions of households before and after the launch of an amnesty program that granted such migrants a labor permit and access to social services. Our results suggest the amnesty reduced the likelihood that program beneficiaries would have a child due to better labor market opportunities for women and greater access to family planning resources through health care services. |
| Keywords: | migration, refugees, amnesties, Latin America |
| JEL: | F22 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16170&r=ure |
| By: | Liqun Zhuge; Kevin Lang |
| Abstract: | Hukou, China’s household registration system, affects access to public services and signals the strength of a person’s local social network, guanxi. We use a collective model and data on household consumption and spouses’ hukou status to show that hukou plays a crucial role in determining within-family bargaining power. Wives who bring the family more lucrative hukou enjoy significantly higher bargaining power than other wives. Still, these wives have less bargaining power than their husbands. Large differences in preferences between husbands and wives, especially regarding alcohol, tobacco, and clothing, allow us to identify these disparities. |
| JEL: | J10 J12 J16 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31237&r=ure |
| By: | Bryant G. Hopkins; Katharine O. Strunk; Scott A. Imberman; Adrea J. Truckenmiller; Matthew Guzman; Marisa H. Fisher |
| Abstract: | We use data from Michigan and an interrupted time series (ITS) strategy to show how the COVID-19 pandemic impacted new special education classifications and discontinuations. We find a substantial decrease in K-5 classifications and discontinuations during the 2019-20 and 2020-21 school years. Classifications fell by 19 and 12 percent in these years, respectively, with smaller but still significant reductions in discontinuations. Districts with remote schooling and Black, Asian, and economically disadvantaged students saw larger decreases in classifications. While rates returned to trend in 2021-22, there was little “catch up” beyond that to make up for these delays, suggesting that as of that year many students had not yet gained access to services for which they may be eligible. |
| JEL: | I10 I20 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31261&r=ure |
| By: | Rozo, Sandra V. (World Bank); Quintana, Alejandra (Columbia University); Urbina, Maria José (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | How does easing the economic integration of forced migrants affect native voting behaviors in the Global South? This paper assesses how the regularization of half a million Venezuelan forced migrants affected the electoral choices of Colombian natives by comparing election results in municipalities with higher and lower take-up rates for a program that supports forced migrants. The findings show negligible impacts on native voting behavior. The study then conducted a survey experiment to investigate the lack of voter response. Even after receiving information about the program, Colombian voters showed no changes in voting intentions or prosocial views toward migrants. This suggests that their indifference did not stem from a lack of awareness about the program. In contrast, the electoral indifference of natives may be explained by the fact that the program did not change labor and crime outcomes for native Colombians, and most migrants remained in the informal sector despite benefiting from the program through improvements in labor conditions and better access to public services. |
| Keywords: | refugees, amnesties, electoral outcomes |
| JEL: | D72 F02 F22 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16171&r=ure |
| By: | Kamhon Kan; Tat-Kei Lai (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Using data from the European Values Study and exploiting the compulsory schooling reforms in 13 European countries for identification, we find education to enhance generalized trust. We also find that this effect partly arises from the fact that people learn to form social capital through cooperating and interacting with others in school. |
| Keywords: | Education, Generalized trust, Compulsory schooling reforms, European Values Study |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03274924&r=ure |
| By: | Anna Laura Baraldi (Department of Economics, University of Campania); Erasmo Pagani (Department of Law, University of Naples Federico II); Marco Stimolo (Department of Economic and Social Sciences, Università Politecnica delle Marche) |
| Abstract: | Organised crime tightens its corrupting influence on politics through violent intimidation. Anti-crime measures that increase the cost of corruption but not of the exercise of violence might accordingly lead mafia-style organizations to retaliate by resorting to violence in lieu of bribery. On the other hand, this kind of anti-crime measure might also induce criminal clans to go inactive, owing to the lower expected payoff from the “business” of influencing politics, which would reduce violence. To determine which of these possible effects is prevalent, we undertake an empirical assessment of the impact of city council dissolution for mafia influence in Italy as prescribed by Decree Law 164/1991 in discouraging violence against politicians in the period 2010-2019. Our difference-in-differences analysis shows that in the dissolved municipalities the enforcement of the Law reduces violence and that the effect persists (at least) for two electoral rounds. The most likely driving channel of this result is the renewed pool of politicians elected after compulsory administration. These findings are robust to a series of endogeneity tests. |
| Keywords: | Organized Crime, Violence, Anti-corruption measures, Spillovers |
| JEL: | C25 D73 D78 I38 K42 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2023.10&r=ure |
| By: | Kyra Hanemaaijer (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Olivier Marie (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Marco Musumeci (Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | What are the consequences of religious obligations conflicting with civic duties? We investigate this question by evaluating changes in the performance of practicing Muslim students when end-of-secondary-school exams and Ramadan overlapped in the Netherlands. Using administrative data on exam takers and a machine learning model to individually predict fasting probability, we estimate that the grades and pass rate of compliers dropped significantly. This negative impact was especially strong for low achievers and those from religiously segregated schools. Investigating mechanisms, we find suggestive evidence that not being able to sleep in the morning before an afternoon exam was particularly detrimental to performance. |
| Keywords: | Religion, Productivity, Ramadan, Education, The Netherlands |
| JEL: | I2 I24 Z12 J15 |
| Date: | 2023–04–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20230030&r=ure |
| By: | Johansson, Magnus (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)); Vierth, Inge (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)); Holmgren, Kristina (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)); Cullinane, Kevin (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to determine how policy instruments targeting a modal shift of long-haul freight transport from road to rail or shipping might affect the distribution of freight tonne-kilometers across the different modes of transport in Sweden. The analysis is conducted in two steps. First, possible developments of freight tonne-kilometers until 2030 and 2040 are compared to base figures for 2017. This is done by developing a set of alternative forecast models where different assumptions and scenarios prevail and analyzing these using Sweden’s national freight transport model SAMGODS. Second, the effects of two hypothetical modal shift policy instruments – a wear and tear tax for road traffic and an ecobonus scheme to promote shipping by rail and sea – are analysed with respect to modal split in the base year of 2017 and for the forecast year 2040. The analysis involves the aggregation of calculated modal shares across each of the SAMGODS model's vehicle/ship types – i.e., six road freight vehicles, eleven freight train variants and 22 ship types. Given the conditions that are assumed in the forecasts, the amount of freight tonne- kilometers is calculated to increase by between 31% and 53 % between 2017 and 2040. The increase is generally largest for maritime transport, followed by road transport and smallest for rail transport. The concept developed in this paper can be useful in studying impacts of different types of technology shifts and policy packages. |
| Keywords: | Freight transport; Modal split; Transport work; Forecast models; Policy analysis |
| JEL: | O21 O33 R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2023–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vtiwps:2023_004&r=ure |
| By: | Daniel Crisóstomo Wainstock; Oded Galor; Marc Klemp |
| Abstract: | Evidence suggests that the Out of Africa Migration has impacted the degree of intra-population genetic and phenotypic diversity across the globe. This paper provides the first evidence that this migration has shaped cultural diversity. Leveraging a folklore catalogue of 958 oral traditions across the world, we show that ethnic groups further away from East Africa along the migratory routes have lower folkloric diversity. This pattern is consistent with the compression of genetic, phenotypic, and phonemic traits along the Out of Africa migration routes, setting conditions for the emergence and proliferation of differential cultural diversity and economic development across the world. |
| Keywords: | diversity, Out of Africa, culture |
| JEL: | Z10 O10 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10379&r=ure |
| By: | Eric A. Hanushek; Matthew Joyce-Wirtz |
| Abstract: | School finance court cases have proceeded one or more times in all but two states. Plaintiffs ask the courts to rule that the existing funding formula is unconstitutional under state constitutions, and the defendants call for continuation of the existing finance formula. By compiling and analyzing the universe of such cases, we can accurately describe the nature of the cases, the decisions made, and the long run impact on overall financing of schools. Defendants win a slight majority of decisions with, surprisingly, their victories coming most frequently in low spending states and in low achieving states. And, while plaintiff victories on average yield an immediate increase in funding, they have no influence on long run growth in school spending. |
| JEL: | H4 I22 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31271&r=ure |
| By: | Gupta, Anushri; Panagiotopoulos, Panos; Bowen, Frances |
| Abstract: | Smart city projects require complex coordination of resources, but research on how capabilities form at the city-ecosystem level remains scarce. This article develops a multi-level approach to capability development in smart city ecosystems through an empirical study of London’s city data. We analyse the London case to discover how two ecosystem-level capabilities – data provisioning and data insights – developed through global, configural and shared aggregation processes. We find that the emergence process changes as the smart city ecosystem develops, requiring different coordination and resource mobilisation mechanisms at various stages. We contribute to the capability development and smart city literatures by focusing on ecosystem-level capabilities linked to collective city-level outcomes rather than the capabilities of the leading city authority. Insights from the study are of value to city authorities considering how to scale up and organise smart city initiatives in support of urban development goals. |
| Keywords: | capabilities; city data ecosystems; multi-level theory; smart cities; urban sustainability; EP/R006865/1; Sage deal |
| JEL: | J50 |
| Date: | 2023–03–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:118457&r=ure |
| By: | Berliant, Marcus; Tabuchi, Takatoshi |
| Abstract: | To investigate questions related to migration and trade, a model of regional or international development is created by altering Melitz and Ottaviano (2008) to include a labor market. The model is then applied to analyze poverty traps and the home market effect. We find that in the spatial economics context of migration but no trade, poverty can persist unless population in one region of many is pushed past a threshold. Then growth commences. In the context of trade but no migration, the home market effect holds for a range of parameters, similar to previous literature. However, unlike previous literature, we find that if populations in countries are highly asymmetric, the home market effect can be reversed. |
| Keywords: | Monopolistic competition; Poverty trap; Home market effect |
| JEL: | F12 R11 |
| Date: | 2023–05–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:117405&r=ure |
| By: | Sotarauta, Markku (Tampere University); Grillitsch, Markus (CIRCLE, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | The regional development studies community increasingly considers the significance of agency when working to reveal the secrets of local and regional development. While the rapidly emerging literature on agency has increased our understanding of what people do or fail to do for their regions, many scholars have faced challenges incorporating novel conceptual lenses in a discipline more accustomed to studying structures. With the aim to contribute to a collective learning process, we analyze 27 review reports received for a special issue in Regional Studies on “Agency and Regional Development Against All Odds”. We found challenges, for instance, related to articulating the contribution, conceptual layering and drift, and slippery research questions. These three challenges point to the need to decide on the main concept and theory (the hero of the dish), which is particularly challenging and daunting when it requires sacrificing safe conceptual terrain and exploring a more unknown, emerging field. The authors of the special issue have responded brilliantly to the reviewers’ recommendations and with these reflections, we hope to share this learning experience. The work, however, continues - to improve our capacity to study human agency, we must take pains to clarify meta-theoretical commitments, elaborate middle-range theories, and experiment with a variety of methods. The growing body of work on the relationships between human agency and structures is an exciting ontological, theoretical, and methodological programme in the making. |
| Keywords: | Agency and structure; methodology; regional development |
| JEL: | B52 R10 R50 |
| Date: | 2023–06–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2023_006&r=ure |
| By: | Ambre Maucorps (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Roman Römisch (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Thomas Schwab; Nina Vujanović (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Closing the prosperity gap between regions has always been a key political aspiration of the European Union – and cohesion policy is the primary means to achieve that goal. Europe is currently undergoing a digital and green transition that is drastically changing the way its economy works. How well prepared are regions to capitalise on the twin transition? And what impact will it have on regional cohesion in Europe? Our study finds that greening and digitalising the economy will likely widen the gap between rich and poor regions in Europe. |
| Keywords: | EU, EU regions, regional development, digitalisation, green transition, cohesion |
| JEL: | R11 O21 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:467&r=ure |
| By: | Keith Finlay; Michael G. Mueller-Smith; Brittany Street |
| Abstract: | Children's indirect exposure to the justice system through biological parents or co-resident adults is both a marker of their own vulnerability and a measure of the justice system's expansive reach in society. Estimating the size of this population for the United States has historically been hampered by inadequate data resources, including the inability to (1) observe non-incarceration events, (2) follow children throughout their childhood, and (3) measure adult non-biological parent cohabitants. To overcome these challenges, we leverage billions of restricted administrative and survey records linked with Criminal Justice Administrative Records System data, and find substantially larger exposure rates than previously reported: prison - 9% of children born between 1999-2005, felony conviction - 18%, and any criminal charge - 39%. Charge exposure rates exceed 60% for Black, American Indian, and low-income children. While broader definitions reach a more expansive population, strong and consistently negative correlations with childhood well-being suggest these remain valuable predictors of vulnerability. Finally, we document substantial geographic variation in exposure, which we leverage in a movers design to estimate the effect of living in a high-exposure county during childhood. We find that children moving into high-exposure counties are more likely to experience post-move exposure events and exhibit significantly worse outcomes by age 26 on multiple dimensions (earnings, criminal activity, teen parenthood, mortality); impacts are strongest for those who moved at earlier ages. |
| JEL: | I32 J12 K14 K42 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31262&r=ure |
| By: | Auer, Judith; Link, Steffen; Plötz, Patrick |
| Abstract: | Adequate public charging infrastructure for battery electric trucks (BETs) is crucial for electrifying road freight transport and, thus, curtailing greenhouse gas emissions. Although manufacturer announcements on BET sales targets are promising, many logistic companies still question their technical feasibility due to the limited all-electric range and insufficient public charging infrastructure. Therefore, knowing the attractiveness of truck stop locations and their relevance for ensuring operational schedules is essential to facilitate the coordinated deployment of public charging infrastructure while its profitability is almost pre-secured. This paper aims to characterize current truck stop locations and evaluate possible public charging station locations for BETs via multi-criteria analyses using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) data. This study benefits from real-world truck stop location data, including geo-coordinates and occupancy data, and uses several GIS data sources to enhance the data and verify the presence of distinct truck-relevant features. Features may comprise the proximity to the TEN-T highway network or infrastructure availability, such as fueling stations or rest areas. Additionally, correlation and archetypal analysis are applied to better understand truck stops and their feature dependencies. The results demonstrate the high attractiveness of industrial areas with many potential business destinations along the TEN-T network. However, no particular feature determines the attractiveness of truck stop locations, but the distinct feature combination is decisive. The archetypal analysis reveals three extremes that may constitute the backbone of a public German charging infrastructure network: (1) industry hotspots, (2) hosted rest areas or truck stops along the TEN-T network, (3) and public truck parking areas with additional services. Finally, 1, 648 public parking and rest areas in Germany are identified using OpenStreetMaps.org (OSM) data, and their attractiveness for future BET charging infrastructure is evaluated. These results are provided in an interactive HTML-based map. |
| Keywords: | Charging infrastructure site selection, Multi-criteria decision analysis, GIS, Battery electric trucks |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s042023&r=ure |
| By: | Eduardo Gutiérrez (Banco de España); Enrique Moral-Benito (Banco de España); Roberto Ramos (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | The year 2020 was marked by net migration dynamics in Spain that resulted in an increase in the rural population at the expense of the urban population, interrupting the secular trend towards greater urbanisation prevailing since the middle of the last century. According to the findings of this paper, the demographic momentum of rural areas was attributable both to higher population inflows from elsewhere in the country and, in particular, to a slowdown in outflows from rural areas. In addition, a regression analysis shows that the demographic dynamics during the rural exodus (1950-1990), the percentage of second homes and accessibility to services, both physical and digital, are explanatory factors when characterising municipal-level population changes during the pandemic. 2020 represents a unique period, marked by strict restrictions on movement and on activity, along with stringent social distancing measures. This setting, along with the modest levels of remote working, raise significant doubts and uncertainty as to the extent to which the slowdown in urbanisation observed in that year will continue over a longer time horizon. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, pandemic, population, migrations, Spanish municipalities |
| JEL: | J11 R10 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:opaper:2206e&r=ure |
| By: | Arnold, Fabian (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)); Lilienkamp, Arne (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)); Namockel, Nils (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)) |
| Abstract: | The transformation of the energy system causes increasing stress on distribution grid components. However, flexible EV charging, if incentivized adequately, can help mitigate this impact by reducing peaks in loads and feed-in. A comprehensive regional analysis is necessary to understand the potential of EV charging ŕexibility for reducing peaks on regional and national levels. To this end, we estimate regional residual demand time series for Germany for the years 2019, 2030 and 2045. We focus on modelling private EV diffusion via sigmoid functions and deriving driving and charging profiles based on micro mobility data. Further, we distinguish two deployment schemes for EV flexibility: (1) all EVs contribute to flattening the national residual load curve; (2) local EVs contribute to flattening regional residual load curves. We find that the residual load curves change structurally as positive and negative peaks in residual demand increase over the years on the regional and national levels. Although the absolute ŕexibility potential of EV home charging increases with the number of vehicles, its marginal utility to reduce load peaks declines. Especially in load-dominated regions, the national deployment of ŕexibility can result in higher regional demand peaks compared to a scenario without charging flexibility. The two approaches of flexibility activation can be contradictory in their effects: While regional incentivization is less efficient in reaching the smoothing in the national residual demand curve, national incentivization can even lead to increased strain on the local level. |
| Keywords: | Flexibility; Electric vehicles; Residual load; Energy transition; Charging profiles |
| JEL: | C61 D47 O33 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2023–05–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:ewikln:2023_004&r=ure |
| By: | U.M. Gragnolati; L. Moretti; R. Ricciuti |
| Abstract: | Similarly to other countries, the development of an early national railway network took place in Italy during the second half of the 19th century. Railroads were then regarded as carriers of modernity that could reach isolated areas, expand market potential, and favor the structural transition from an agricultural economy toward an industrial one. Did the newly constructed railways actually have medium-run effects on the development and structure of industrial sectors at the local level? We bring new evidence to the existing literature by looking at the case of Sardinia. According to our estimates, municipalities that received a railway station during the 19th century did not have a significantly higher future probability to host at least one industrial firm, as compared to municipalities without a railway station. However, in those municipalities that received a railway station during the 19th century, specific industrial sub-sectors such as foodstuff and metal processing had higher employment by 1911. Moreover, these industrial sub-sectors tended also to display more firms in those municipalities that received a railway station, although this latter effect is statistically weaker. These outcomes are especially strong in locations having direct access to the main railway line with standard gauge rails, while the effects of secondary narrow gauge lines do not find a similar empirical support. Results are robust to a large set of control variables and district fixed effects and to the use of an instrumental variable based on least-cost paths. |
| Keywords: | Early railways;Industrial development;Developing economy;Insular economy;Least cost paths |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:202307&r=ure |
| By: | Brynjolfsson, Erik; Buffington, Catherine; Goldschlag, Nathan; Li, J. Frank; Miranda, Javier; Seamans, Robert |
| Abstract: | We use data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures to study the characteristics and geography of investments in robots across U.S. manufacturing establishments. We find that robotics adoption and robot intensity (the number of robots per employee) is much more strongly related to establishment size than age. We find that establishments that report having robotics have higher capital expenditures, including higher information technology (IT) capital expenditures. Also, establishments are more likely to have robotics if other establishments in the same Core-Based Statistical Area (CBSA) and industry also report having robotics. The distribution of robots is highly skewed across establishments' locations. Some locations, which we call Robot Hubs, have far more robots than one would expect even after accounting for industry and manufacturing employment. We characterize these Robot Hubs along several industry, demographic, and institutional dimensions. The presence of robot integrators and higher levels of union membership are positively correlated with being a Robot Hub. |
| Keywords: | labor, manufacturing, robot, technology adoption |
| JEL: | L64 O34 O36 O4 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:72023&r=ure |
| By: | Hie Joo Ahn; Choongryul Yang |
| Abstract: | We study the role of homeownership in the effectiveness of monetary policy on households' expectations. Empirically, we find that homeowners revise down their near-term inflation expectations and their optimism about future labor market conditions in response to a rise in mortgage rates, while renters are less likely to do so. We further show that the monetary-policy component of mortgage-rate changes creates the difference in expectation revisions between homeowners and renters. This result suggests that homeowners are attentive to news on interest rates and adjust their expectations accordingly in a manner consistent with the intended effect of monetary policy. We characterize these findings using a rational inattention model with two types of households---homeowners and renters. |
| Keywords: | Inflation expectations; Homeownership; Rational inattention |
| JEL: | D83 D84 E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2022–10–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2022-65&r=ure |
| By: | Baker, Emma; Moore, Trivess; Daniel, Lyrian; Caines, Rachel; Padilla, Hector; Lester, Laurence |
| Abstract: | This research examines the preferences and trade-offs of tenants during social housing retrofit programs, particularly in regard to implementing circular economy (CE) practices. The study looks beyond the relatively narrow consideration of energy efficiency, to respond to the broader requirements of the social housing sector—to incorporate and balance tenant needs with provider mandates, budgetary limitations, and wider social policy. Retrofitting, or upgrading, existing social housing stock has been proposed as a cost-efficient solution to concerns around energy efficiency, thermal performance, and quality issues. The research found that households’ preferences for housing retrofit and upgrade options did not necessarily align with evidence of optimal retrofit priorities and do not align with the typical activities which receive government funding. For example, commonly provided retrofit measures (such as draft sealing) were not widely valued, while less common interventions that were less focussed on energy efficiency (such as a deep clean) were highly regarded by consumer households. The objectives underlying retrofit programs are rarely explicit and vary greatly between stakeholders: social housing providers may be largely motivated to assist their tenants to avoid energy poverty; industry groups seem principally focussed on sustainability outcomes; and many tenants’ main motivation is wanting homes that are more liveable, efficient, clean and warm. These different, and often competing, objectives obviously limit successful outcomes. Retrofit and quality improvements that are undertaken with a short term focus, based on whatever funding or opportunities are available at that point in time, constrains all stakeholders from longer term planning or strategic coordination, but also reduces the opportunity to use CE principles in retrofit activities. |
| Date: | 2023–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:bn42s&r=ure |
| By: | Carola Binder; Pei Kuang; Li Tang |
| Abstract: | We study how US consumers’ house price expectations respond to verbal and non-verbal communication about interest rate changes using several large online surveys. Verbal communication about interest rate hikes leads to little response of average house price expectations but large heterogeneity among household groups. Communication about rate hikes combined with a simple explanation of the mortgage rate channel causes large downward revisions to house price expectations. Consumers interpret heterogeneously Chair Powell’s voice tone and body language at the press conference which significantly influence their house price expectations. More negative evaluations are associated with larger upward revisions to house price expectations. |
| JEL: | E30 E31 E52 E7 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31232&r=ure |
| By: | Diego Rybski; Antonio Ciccone |
| Abstract: | Power-law city-size distributions are a statistical regularity researched in many countries and urban systems. In this history of science treatise we reconsider Felix Auerbach’s paper published in 1913. We review his analysis and find (i) that a constant absolute concentration, as introduced by him, is equivalent to a power-law distribution with exponent ≈ 1, (ii) that Auerbach describes this equivalence, and (iii) that Auerbach also pioneered the empirical analysis of city-size distributions across countries, regions, and time periods. We further investigate his legacy as reflected in citations and find that important follow-up work, e.g. A.J. Lotka 1925 and Zipf 1949, does give proper reference to his discovery – but other does not. For example, only approximately 20% of cityrelated works citing Zipf 1949 also cite Auerbach 1913. To our best knowledge, A.J. Lotka 1925 was the first to describe the power-law rank-size rule as it is analyzed today. M. Saibante 1928, building on Auerbach and Lotka, investigated the power-law rank-size rule across countries, regions, and time periods. G.K. Zipf’s achievement was to embed these findings in his monumental 1949 book. We suggest that the use of “Auerbach-Lotka-Zipf law†(or “ALZ-law†) is more appropriate than “Zipf’s law for cities†, which also avoids confusion with Zipf’s law for word frequency. We end the treatise with biographical notes on Auerbach. |
| Keywords: | zipf's law for cities, empirical city size distributions |
| JEL: | B00 R12 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2023_424&r=ure |
| By: | Sara Sofie Abrahamsson; Aline Bütikofer; Krzysztof Karbownik |
| Abstract: | Using spatial and temporal variation in openings of fast food restaurants in Norway between 1980 and 2007, we study the effects of changes in the supply of high caloric nutrition on the health and cognitive ability of young adult males. Our results indicate that exposure to these establishments during childhood and adolescence increases BMI and has negative effects on cognition. Heterogeneity analysis does not reveal meaningful differences in the effects across groups, including for those with adverse prenatal health or high paternal BMI, an exception being that cognition is only affected by exposure at ages 0--12 and this effect is mediated by paternal education. |
| JEL: | I12 I20 J13 L66 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31226&r=ure |
| By: | Marie Connolly (Department of Economics, University of Quebec in Montreal); Catherine Haeck (Department of Economics, University of Quebec in Montreal); Anne Mei Le Bourdais-Coffey (Department of Economics, University of Quebec in Montreal) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we exploit intergenerationally-linked tax files and Census data to first document the intergenerational income transmission between individuals who immigrated to Canada as children—the 1.5 generation—and their parents. We find that the correlation between parental income rank and child income rank becomes stronger the older the child is at arrival. We then try to get at the causal effect of the age at immigration by estimating a model in which child rank is explained by interactions between age at arrival and the average predicted rank of second-generation immigrants from the same region of origin, living in the same region in Canada, from the same birth cohort, given their parental income. The model gives us the rate at which children from the 1.5 generation catch up to second-generation immigrants. We find that up to age 10, the relation between age at immigration and income is flat, but starting at age 11, each year is associated with 3.3 fewer percentile ranks. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational income mobility, immigrants, 1.5 generation, age at immigration, Canada |
| JEL: | J62 J61 J15 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grc:wpaper:23-03&r=ure |
| By: | Christine de la Maisonneuve; Balazs Egert; David Turner |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a new measure of human capital, which distinguishes both quality and quantity components, to estimate the long-term effect of the Covid-19-related school closures on aggregate productivity through the human capital channel. Productivity losses build up over time and are estimated to range between 0.4% and 2.1% after 45 years, for 12 weeks and 2 years of school closure, respectively. These results appear to be broadly consistent with earlier findings in the literature. Two opposing effects might influence these estimates. Online teaching would lower economic costs while learning losses in tertiary education (not considered here) would inflate them. Policies aimed at improving the quality of education and adult training will be needed to offset or, at least, alleviate the impact of the pandemic on human capital. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, human capital, PISA, PIAAC, productivity, education policies, OECD countries |
| JEL: | E24 I19 I20 I25 I26 I28 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10396&r=ure |
| By: | Vera Freundl; Pietro Sancassani |
| Abstract: | What makes a good teacher? This is one of the central questions in the economics of education. General teacher qualifications, such as education level or advanced degrees, tend to be poor predictors of teacher quality. Instead, some studies have shown that subject-specific qualifications predict teacher quality better. However, the vast majority of such studies are based on data from the United States. It is therefore unclear to what extent the findings can be generalized to other nations, as teacher education programs vary widely across countries. The lack of international evidence is particularly problematic for developing economies, which would arguably benefit most from improving student achievement. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:econpb:_51&r=ure |
| By: | Opatrny, Matej; Havranek, Tomas; Irsova, Zuzana; Scasny, Milan |
| Abstract: | Class size reduction mandates are frequent and invariably justified by studies reporting positive effects on student achievement. Yet other studies report no effects, and the literature as a whole awaits correction for potential publication bias. Moreover, if identification drives results systematically, the relevance of individual studies will vary. We build a sample of 1, 767 estimates collected from 62 studies and for each estimate codify 42 factors reflecting estimation context. We employ recently developed nonlinear techniques for publication bias correction and Bayesian model averaging techniques that address model uncertainty. The results suggest publication bias among studies featured in top five economics journals, but not elsewhere. The implied class size effect is zero for all identification approaches except Tennessee's Student/Teacher Achievement Ratio project. The effect remains zero for disadvantaged students and across subjects, school types, and countries. |
| Keywords: | Class size, student learning, meta-analysis, publication bias, Bayesian model averaging |
| JEL: | C83 H52 I21 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:270952&r=ure |
| By: | Pascal Frucquet (LIREM - Laboratoire de Recherche en Management (LIREM) - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour); David Carassus (LIREM - Laboratoire de Recherche en Management (LIREM) - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour); Didier Chabaud (UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne); Pierre Marin (CREG - Centre de recherche et d'études en gestion - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour) |
| Keywords: | Smart City, Public Value, Governance, Co-creation |
| Date: | 2023–04–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04095700&r=ure |
| By: | Michael Dinerstein; Constantine Yannelis; Ching-Tse Chen |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the effects of the 2020 student debt moratorium that paused payments for student loan borrowers. Using administrative credit panel data, we show that the payment pause led to a sharp drop in student loan payments and delinquencies for borrowers subject to the debt moratorium, as well as an increase in credit scores. We find a large stimulus effect, as borrowers substitute increased private debt for paused public debt. Comparing borrowers whose loans were frozen with borrowers whose loans were not frozen due to differences in whether the government owned the loans, we show that borrowers used the new liquidity to increase borrowing on credit cards, mortgages, and auto loans rather than avoid delinquencies. The effects are concentrated among borrowers without prior delinquencies, who saw no change in credit scores, and we see little effects following student loan forgiveness announcements. The results highlight an important complementarity between liquidity and credit, as liquidity increases the demand for credit even as the supply of credit is fixed. |
| JEL: | G51 I22 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31247&r=ure |
| By: | Patricia Cortés |
| Abstract: | Most of the literature on how immigration affects the labor market focuses on the outcomes of natives in direct competition with immigrants. This paper reviews a growing literature on an alternative channel. Immigrants, particularly low-skilled women, are disproportionately represented in the household services sector, a global phenomenon that is seen to some extent in most regions. A simple time-use model suggests that by lowering the price of market-provided household services, immigrant workers allow high-skilled native women to reduce their unpaid household production and increase their participation in the labor market. I review existing evidence that the presence of foreign domestic workers has increased the labor supply of high-skilled native women, has helped narrow the gender earnings gap in high-paying powered occupations, and that these advances have not come at the cost of native women investing less time in their children or having lower birth rates. I discuss the policy implications of these results, as well as some ethical considerations. |
| JEL: | J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31234&r=ure |
| By: | Chinh Thi Tuyet Mai; Akira Hibiki |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes an in-depth study of the short- and long-term effects of floods on the cognitive development of school-aged children. Specifically, we exploit individual-level microdata from a longitudinal study of childhood poverty in Vietnam. Our analyses indicate that floods immediately imposed negative impacts on children’s cognitive skills, but these impacts would be mitigated in the long run. Changes in child schooling, time allocation between school and work, and household food consumption (child nutrition) appear to be potential channels behind these impacts. Girls, older children, firstborn children, and children belonging to ethnic minorities are more vulnerable to the adverse effects of flooding. Our results suggest that policies to alleviate the credit constraints of households in the above groups could mitigate the damage imposed by natural disasters on human capital accumulation. |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:toh:tupdaa:36&r=ure |