nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2023‒05‒08
63 papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Classroom Competition, Student Effort, and Peer Effects By Mark R. Rosenzweig; Bing Xu
  2. Immigration and the Slope of the Labor Demand Curve: The Role of Firm Heterogeneity in a Model of Regional Labor Markets By Andrea Ariu; Tobias Müller; Tuan Nguyen
  3. Navigating the Geography of Regional Disparities: Market Access and the Core-Periphery Divide By Gabrielle Gambuli
  4. Which transport modes do people use for travelling to coworking spaces (CWSs)? By Stéphanie Souche-Le Corvec
  5. Long Shadow of the U.S. Mortgage Expansion: Evidence from Local Labour Markets By Mitra, Aruni; Wei, Mengying
  6. Web-scraping housing prices in real-time: The Covid-19 crisis in the UK By Jean-Charles Bricongne; Baptiste Meunier; Sylvain Pouget
  7. Homophily and Transmission of Behavioral Traits in Social Networks By Palaash Bhargava; Daniel L. Chen; Matthias Sutter; Camille Terrier
  8. In and Out of Privileged and Disadvantaged Neighborhoods in Sweden – On the Importance of Country of Birth By Gustafsson, Björn Anders; Österberg, Torun
  9. Ready for School? Effects on School Starters of Establishing School Psychology Offices in Norway By Martin Flatø; Bernt Bratsberg; Andreas Kotsadam; Fartein Ask Torvik; Ole Røgeberg; Camilla Stoltenberg
  10. Local and National Concentration Trends in Jobs and Sales: The Role of Structural Transformation By David Autor; Christina Patterson; John Van Reenen
  11. Selective schooling and social mobility in England By Buscha, Franz; Gorman, Emma; Sturgis, Patrick
  12. Parental Investment, School Choice, and the Persistent Benefits of Intervention in Early Childhood By Lei Wang; Yiwei Qian; Nele Warrinnier; Orazio Attanasio; Scott Rozelle; Sean Sylvia
  13. Consumption Segregation By Corina Boar; Elisa Giannone
  14. Intergenerational home ownership By Blanden, Jo; Eyles, Andrew; Machin, Stephen
  15. How Does Local Cost-of-Living Affect Retirement? By Laura D. Quinby; Gal Wettstein
  16. Who uses green mobility? Exploring profiles in developed countries By Echeverría, Lucía; Gimenez-Nadal, J. Ignacio; Molina, José Alberto
  17. COVID-19 Working Paper: Migration, Local Mobility, and the spread of COVID-19 in Rural America By Nelson, Peter; Cromartie, John
  18. The presence of White students and the emergence of Black-White within-school inequalities: two interaction-based mechanisms By Jo\~ao M. Souto-Maior
  19. LOCAL LABOUR TASKS AND PATENTING IN US COMMUTING ZONES By Marialuisa Divella; Alessia Lo Turco; Alessandro Sterlacchini
  20. The Decline of Routine Tasks, Education Investments, and Intergenerational Mobility By Patrick Bennett; Kai Liu; Kjell Salvanes
  21. State Taxation of Nonresident Income and the Location of Work By David R. Agrawal; Kenneth Tester
  22. Beyond Racial Attitudes: The Role of Outside Options in the Dynamics of White Flight By Peter Q. Blair
  23. European Housing Markets at a Turning Point – Risks, Household and Bank Vulnerabilities, and Policy Options By Petia Topalova; Ms. Laura Valderrama; Ms. Marina Marinkov; Patrik Gorse
  24. Forecasting housing investment By Martínez, Carlos Cañizares; de Bondt, Gabe; Gieseck, Arne
  25. Opioid Mortality in the US: Quantifying the Direct and Indirect Impact of Sociodemographic and Socioeconomic Factors By Fischer, Manfred M.; Gopal, Sucharita
  26. Cycling in the Aftermath of COVID-19: An Empirical Estimation of the Social Dynamics of Bicycle Adoption in Paris By Guilhem Lecouteux; Léonard Moulin
  27. Centrally Coordinated Schedules and Routes of Airport Shuttles with LAX Terminals as Application Area By Ioannou, Petros; Chen, Pengfei
  28. Crime and economic conditions in the United States Revisited By Ogundari, Kolawole
  29. Can Workers Still Climb the Social Ladder as Middling Jobs Become Scarce? Evidence from Two British Cohorts By Cecilia Garcia-Peñalosa; Fabien Petit; Tanguy van Ypersele
  30. What Can Historically Black Colleges and Universities Teach about Improving Higher Education Outcomes for Black Students? By Gregory Price; Angelino Viceisza
  31. The impact of area level mental health interventions on outcomes for secondary school pupils: Evidence from the HeadStart programme in England By Sarah Cattan; Ruth Gilbert; Suzet Tanya Lereya; Yeosun Yoon; Jessica Deighton
  32. Interrupting inertia: evidence from a mortgage refinancing field trial By Byrne, Shane; Devine, Kenneth; McCarthy, Yvonne
  33. Peer Prediction for Peer Review: Designing a Marketplace for Ideas By Alexander Ugarov
  34. Economic impacts of low-carbon transport strategies for Jordan By Philip Adams; Louise Roos
  35. Closing the Psychological Distance: The Effect of Social Interactions on Team Performance By Hattori, Keisuke; Yamada, Mai
  36. The health effects of universal early childhood interventions: evidence from Sure Start By Sarah Cattan; Gabriella Conti; Christine Farquharson; Rita Ginja; Maud Pecher
  37. Discrimination on the Child Care Market: A Nationwide Field Experiment By Henning Hermes; Philipp Lergetporer; Fabian Mierisch; Frauke Peter; Simon Wiederhold
  38. Immigrant assimilation in health care utilisation in Spain By Zuleika Ferre; Patricia Triunfo; Jos\'e-Ignacio Ant\'on
  39. Capitalising the Network Externalities of New Land Supply in the Metaverse By Kanis Saengchote; Voraprapa Nakavachara; Yishuang Xu
  40. Apalancamiento, ciclo financiero y económico By Valdivia Coria, Joab Dan
  41. Diversity Fosters Learning in Environments with Experimentation and Social Learning By Cunha, Douglas; Monte, Daniel
  42. The education backlash: How assimilative primary school education affects insurgency in areas of ethnic conflict By Tugba Bozcaga; Asli Cansunar
  43. Relative Performance Feedback and Long-Term Tasks – Experimental Evidence from Higher Education By Raphael Brade; Oliver Himmler; Robert Jaeckle
  44. The role of the structure of social relations in achieving academic success By Cherenkova Kseniya; Mirzoyan Ashot
  45. Exploring Tools for Maximizing the Potential for Electrified Transit Buses in Mexico By Tal, Gil; Benoliel, Peter K; Garcia Sanchez, Juan Carlos; Hernandez Rios, Kevin
  46. Household joblessness in US metropolitan areas during the COVID19 pandemic: polarization and the role of educational profiles By Biegert, Thomas; Özcan, Berkay; Rossetti Youlton, Magdalena
  47. Social Entrepreneurship as a Tool to Promoting Sustainable Development in Low-Income Communities: An Empirical Analysis By Sauermann, Miklas Pascal
  48. Trends in the Female Longevity Advantage of 19th-Century Birth Cohorts: Exploring the Role of Place and Fertility By Fletcher, Jason M.; Topping, Michael; Joo, Won-tak
  49. Physicians Treating Physicians: Relational and Informational Advantages in Treatment and Survival By Chen, Stacey H.; Chen, Jennjou; Chuang, Hongwei; Lin, Tzu-Hsin
  50. Asymmetric networks, clientelism and their impacts: households' access to workfare employment in rural India By Anindya Bhattacharya; Anirban Kar; Alita Nandi
  51. Measuring the Characteristics and Employment Dynamics of U.S. Inventors By Ufuk Akcigit; Nathan Goldschlag
  52. Identity, Communication, and Conflict: An Experiment By Bhaumik, Sumon K.; Chowdhury, Subhasish M.; Dimova, Ralitza; Fromell, Hanna
  53. Cooperation, Fairness, and Rational Altruism in the Making of the Modern Living Standards. The Case of Maresme (1853-2022) By Jose Luis Martinez-Gonzalez
  54. The local economic development effects of income transfers in South Africa. The Social Relief of Distress grant By Sophie PLAGERSON; Senzelwe MTHEMBU; Thandi SIMELANE; Khuliso MATIDZA; Anita MWANDA
  55. Calibrating Macroprudential Policies in Europe Amid Rising Housing Market Vulnerability By Ms. Laura Valderrama
  56. Mexico Electrified: Updating Mass Transit Vehicles to Help Meet Paris Climate Goals By Benoliel, Peter; Hernandez Rios, Kevin; Garcia Sanchez, Juan Carlos; Tal, Gil
  58. Where Have All the "Creative Talents" Gone? Employment Dynamics of US Inventors By Ufuk Akcigit; Nathan Goldschlag
  59. Assessment of the contribution of the unobserved economy to the macroeconomic indicators of the regions of the Russian Federation By Kiselev Sergei; Samsonov Valery; Seitov Sanat; Filimonov Ilya
  60. Trade Networks and Natural Disasters: Diversion, not Destruction By Gigout, Timothee; London, Melina
  61. Robots at work: new evidence with recent data By Almeida, Derick; Sequeira, Tiago
  62. The accelerated value of social skills in knowledge work and the COVID-19 pandemic By Lordan, Grace; Josten, Cecily
  63. Decline of a Tourist Destination in the Context of COVID-19 : Conservatism or (R)evolution in the Hotel Industry By Nathalie Jarraud

  1. By: Mark R. Rosenzweig; Bing Xu
    Abstract: This paper studies how rewards based on class rank affect student effort and performance using a game-theoretic classroom competition model and data from the resettlement of Southeast Asian refugees in the US. The paper finds that variation in the presence of strong or weak students changes the incentives and test scores of incumbent students depending on their ability group in accord with the competition model, with increases in the number of strong students lowering effort among strong and weak incumbents but raising the test scores of weak incumbents. The results suggest that competition induced by rank-based rewards within homogeneous ability groups lowers overall effort levels, while the presence of strong students directly augments the performance, but not the effort levels, of weak students despite the competition. The paper also rules out a number of alternative explanations for these school composition effects, including disruptions, teacher-initiated changes in curriculum in response to changing class composition, selective incumbent-student school exit, and endogenous responses of refugee location choices to school performance.
    JEL: I21 I24 J15
    Date: 2023–04
  2. By: Andrea Ariu; Tobias Müller; Tuan Nguyen
    Abstract: In this paper, we provide new explanations for the puzzling findings in the literature that migrants do not decrease natives’ wages, and that skilled immigration can actually increase them. We develop a model with regional labor markets and heterogeneous firms in which workers of different skill levels are imperfect substitutes, but for a given skill level, natives and migrants are perfect substitutes within a firm. In this setting, a skilled labor supply shock due to immigration has two consequences. First, it induces skill-intensive firms and skill-abundant regions to expand. These across-firm and across-region reallocations reduce the within-firm and within-region substitution between skilled and unskilled workers, thus limiting relative wage adjustments. Second, the average native’s wage can be partially sheltered from the negative effect of immigration depending on the geographical settlement patterns of immigrants. Both mechanisms make natives and migrants appear as imperfect substitutes at the aggregate level. Quantitatively, our simulations show that the negative impact of immigration on natives' wage is halved when the across-firm and across-region reallocation mechanisms are at work. Finally, both theory and simulations show that when these mechanisms are coupled with human-capital externalities that are skill-neutral at the firm level but skill-biased on aggregate, skilled immigration can increase absolute and relative skilled wages. Therefore, firm heterogeneity, local labor markets, and human-capital externalities are crucial for understanding the impact of immigration on natives’ wages.
    Keywords: immigration, firm heterogeneity, wages
    JEL: F22 J61 J31
    Date: 2023
  3. By: Gabrielle Gambuli (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of market proximity on subnational development worldwide, considering the heterogeneous effects on core and peripheral regions, as well as on countries with different income levels. A gravity-based market potential index is revised to accurately assess distances for land and maritime trips to better capture geographic limitations. Estimations are performed in cross-section with country-fixed effects, by addressing endogeneity issues with instrumental variables. Robustness checks are also conducted with panel data on a smaller sample. The findings reveal that regions with better access to markets and port experience higher regional income per capita, with the effect being higher for wealthier regions. Peripheral regions consistently exhibit a 2 percentage point lower elasticity to market potential compared to core regions. The paper also highlights the potential negative impact of proximity to foreign markets on peripheral regions. These results suggest that policies which aim at improving the connectivity of peripheral regions to core domestic markets could help mitigate the adverse effects of foreign competition and reduce regional disparities within countries.
    Keywords: International Trade, Market Potential, Economic Geography, Regional Development, Core-Periphery.
    JEL: F14 F15 O18 R11
    Date: 2023
  4. By: Stéphanie Souche-Le Corvec (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: There are many different ways of practicing coworking, and many different forms of CoWorking Spaces (CWSs). In this paper, we define CWSs in economic and spatial terms, and we provide some explanations on the transport mode used to travel to. Is the transport mode used to get to CWSs the same as that which is usually used for travel for work purposes? Does the spatial location of the CWS (in large city - medium-sized town - rural community) have an impact on the transport mode choice? The key issue is determining whether these new working spaces favor a shift in travel behavior toward practices less centered on the car. We use a survey of coworkers conducted in 2019 in the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes Region (AURA), from which data is processed using a binomial logit model. The estimation results show that the mode choice for traveling to CWSs does not allow us to identify a characteristic that is fundamentally different from mode choice for work purpose. However, the availability of a parking place in CWSs is identified as a possible public policy level.
    Keywords: Transport modes, Mode choice, Coworking, Binomial logit model
    Date: 2023–06
  5. By: Mitra, Aruni; Wei, Mengying
    Abstract: We construct U.S. county-level credit supply shocks by interacting the mortgage growth of multi-market lenders with a county’s initial exposure to those lenders. The credit shocks did not impact the local labour markets during the credit boom but had a negative effect during the Great Recession. While local unemployment rates recovered post-Recession, wage growth remained depressed. Further, a long-run increase in older firms’ employment share suggests a credit-induced reduction in business dynamism and labour demand. A mechanism through occasionally binding financial constraints tied to house prices can qualitatively explain these asymmetric effects of credit shocks in booms and busts.
    Keywords: mortgage lending, credit supply shocks, local labour markets
    JEL: E24 E32 E44 G01 G20
    Date: 2023–04–05
  6. By: Jean-Charles Bricongne (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France, LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [2022-...] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, LIEPP - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire d'évaluation des politiques publiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Baptiste Meunier (Centre de recherche de la Banque Centrale européenne - Banque Centrale Européenne, AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Sylvain Pouget (Grenoble INP ENSIMAG - École nationale supérieure d'informatique et de mathématiques appliquées - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)
    Abstract: While official statistics provide lagged and aggregate information on the housing market, extensive information is available publicly on real-estate websites. By web-scraping them for the UK on a daily basis, this paper extracts a large database from which we build timely and highly granular indicators. One originality of the dataset is to focus on the supply side of the housing market, allowing to compute innovative indicators reflecting the sellers' perspective such as the number of new listings posted or how prices fluctuate over time for existing listings. Matching listing prices in our dataset with transacted prices from the notarial database, using machine learning, also measures the negotiation margin of buyers. During the Covid-19 crisis, these indicators demonstrate the freezing of the market and the "wait-and-see" behaviour of sellers. They also show that listing prices after the lockdown experienced a continued decline in London but increased in other regions.
    Keywords: Housing, Real time, Big data, Web-scraping, High frequency, United Kingdom
    Date: 2023–03
  7. By: Palaash Bhargava; Daniel L. Chen; Matthias Sutter; Camille Terrier
    Abstract: Social networks are a key factor of success in life, but they are also strongly segmented on gender, ethnicity, and other demographic characteristics (Jackson, 2010). We present novel evidence on an understudied source of homophily: behavioral traits. Behavioral traits are important determinants of life outcomes. While recent work has focused on how these traits are influenced by the family environment, or how they can be affected by childhood interventions, little is known about how these traits are related to social networks. Based on unique data collected using incentivized experiments on more than 2, 500 French high-school students, we find high levels of homophily across all ten behavioral traits that we study. Notably, the extent of homophily depends on similarities in demographic characteristics, in particular with respect to gender. Furthermore, the larger the number of behavioral traits that students share, the higher the overall homophily. Using network econometrics, we show that the observed homophily is not only an outcome of endogenous network formation, but is also a result of friends influencing each others’ behavioral traits. Importantly, the transmission of traits is larger when students share demographic characteristics, such as gender, have longer periods of friendship, or are friends with more popular individuals.
    Keywords: homophily, social networks, behavioural traits, peer effects, experiments
    JEL: D85 C91 D01 D90
    Date: 2023
  8. By: Gustafsson, Björn Anders (University of Gothenburg); Österberg, Torun (University of Gothenburg)
    Abstract: Moves into and out of privileged neighborhoods as well as moves into and out of disadvantaged neighborhoods in metropolitan Sweden are studied using register data on all moves by adults that took place between 2004 and 2006. Based on estimated multivariate models, we find that, for all four types of moves, age, education, household income, household composition and its changes, as well as labor market status and its changes, matter. However, in addition, where the person was born can matter, as, with some exceptions, foreign-born people are less likely than natives with the same characteristics to move into a privileged neighborhood. Furthermore, foreign-born are typically less likely than natives with the same characteristics to move out of the metropolitan regions. However, considerable heterogeneity in probabilities to move between those born in different categories of countries is found. Adults born in high-income countries are, in many cases, moving similarly to natives with the same characteristics, while this is typically not found among people born in low-income countries. The latter might be due to fewer assets, lesser social capital, discrimination in the housing market or in housing finance, or by choice.
    Keywords: residental mobility, neighbourhoods, immigrants, Sweden
    JEL: J15 J61 R23
    Date: 2023–03
  9. By: Martin Flatø; Bernt Bratsberg; Andreas Kotsadam; Fartein Ask Torvik; Ole Røgeberg; Camilla Stoltenberg
    Abstract: We consider long-term impacts of establishing school psychology offices in Norway, which introduced ‘maturity testing’ to advice parents and school boards on school starting age. In the early reform period, children born close to the normative age cut-off who reached school-starting age after the establishment were more likely to finish compulsory schooling late, and experienced higher earnings as adults. When offices were instead able to block delayed school entry after a legislative change, having an office in operation led to a reduction in the likelihood of late graduation for the youngest children in each cohort, and no long-term benefits.
    Keywords: school psychology, maturity, school readiness, redshirting, school starting age, Norway
    JEL: I21 I24 I26 I28 J24 N34
    Date: 2023
  10. By: David Autor; Christina Patterson; John Van Reenen
    Abstract: National industrial concentration in the U.S. has risen sharply since the early 1980s, but there remains dispute over whether local geographic concentration has followed a similar trend. Using near population data from the Economic Censuses, we confirm and extend existing evidence on national U.S. industrial concentration while providing novel evidence on local concentration. We document that the Herfindhahl index of local employment concentration, measured at the county-by-NAICS six-digit-industry cell level, fell between 1992 and 2017 even as local sales concentration rose. The divergence between national and local employment concentration trends is attributable to the structural transformation of U.S. economic activity: both sales and employment concentration rose within industry-by-county cells; but reallocation of sales and employment from relatively concentrated Manufacturing industries (e.g., steel mills) towards relatively un-concentrated Service industries (e.g. hair salons) reduced local concentration. A stronger between-sector shift in employment relative to sales drove the net fall in local employment concentration. Holding industry employment shares at their 1992 level, average local employment concentration would have risen by about 9% by 2017. Instead, it fell by 5%. Falling local employment concentration may intensify competition for recent market entrants. Simultaneously, rising within industry-by-geography concentration may weaken competition for incumbent workers who have limited sectoral mobility. To facilitate analysis, we have made data on these trends available for download.
    JEL: E23 J42 L10 L11 L22 R11 R12
    Date: 2023–04
  11. By: Buscha, Franz; Gorman, Emma; Sturgis, Patrick
    Abstract: We assess whether changing from an academically selective to a comprehensive schooling system promotes social mobility, using England as a case study. Over a period of two decades, the share of pupils in academically selective schools in England declined sharply and differentially by area. Using a sample of census records matched to data on selective schooling, we exploit temporal and geographic variation in the proportion of pupils attending selective schools to estimate the effects of schooling system on intergenerational social mobility. Our results provide no support for the contention that the move from selective to comprehensive schooling had a notable effect on social mobility in England. The findings are robust to a battery of sensitivity and robustness checks.
    Keywords: social mobility; selective schooling; grammar schools; ES/R00627X/1; CeLSIUS is supported by the ESRC under project ES/V003488/1
    JEL: I21 I28 J18 J24
    Date: 2023–04–01
  12. By: Lei Wang (Shaanxi Normal University); Yiwei Qian (Stanford University); Nele Warrinnier (Queen Mary University of London and LICOS, KU Leuven); Orazio Attanasio (Yale University, the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS)); Scott Rozelle (Stanford University); Sean Sylvia (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)
    Abstract: We present evidence from a randomized experiment testing the impacts of a six-month early childhood home-visiting program on child outcomes at school entry. Two and a half years after completion of the program, we find persistent effects on child working memory - a key skill of executive functioning that plays a central role in children’s development of cognitive and socio-emotional skills. We also find that the program had persistent effects on parental time investments and preschool enrolment decisions. Children were enrolled earlier and in higher quality preschools, the latter reflecting a shift in preferences over preschool attributes toward quality. Our findings imply an important role for the availability of high-quality subsequent schooling in sustaining the impacts of early intervention programs.
    Keywords: Early Childhood Development, Parenting, China, Poverty
    JEL: J13 I21 I28 H11
  13. By: Corina Boar; Elisa Giannone
    Abstract: This paper introduces consumption segregation, a new margin of residential segregation, and examines its patterns, causes, and discusses its aggregate consequences. We use new longitudinal and highly granular data to measure consumption segregation in the United States and document that it is high but relatively stable over the past 15 years, with substantial regional variation. We find that income segregation plays a more prominent role than other forms of segregation in driving consumption segregation, mainly due to the inability to smooth shocks to income. We illustrate a new mechanism through which, in the presence of social comparisons, consumption segregation can exacerbate wealth inequality.
    JEL: E20 R2
    Date: 2023–04
  14. By: Blanden, Jo; Eyles, Andrew; Machin, Stephen
    Abstract: This paper studies intergenerational links in home ownership, an increasingly important wealth marker and a measure of economic status in itself. Repeated cross sectional UK data show that home ownership rates have fallen rapidly over time, most markedly amongst younger people in more recent birth cohorts. Evidence from British birth cohorts data supplemented by the Wealth and Assets Survey show a significant rise through time in the intergenerational persistence of home ownership, as home ownership rates shrank disproportionately among those whose parents did not own their own home. Given the close connection between home ownership and wealth, these results on strengthening intergenerational persistence in home ownership are therefore also suggestive of a fall in intergenerational housing wealth mobility over time.
    Keywords: cohorts; housing; intergenerational mobility; wealth
    JEL: R31 J11 D31 J62
    Date: 2023–04–05
  15. By: Laura D. Quinby; Gal Wettstein
    Abstract: Households across the United States face very different cost-of-living, largely due to variations in housing expenses. Over the last 50 years, house prices have risen fastest in already expensive areas. To attract workers despite high prices, these local labor markets offer more wages and/or fringe benefits. Wage levels directly affect retirement security through Social Security benefits, which, by design, replace a higher share of pre-retirement earnings for workers at the bottom of the national earnings distribution, not taking local price levels into account. As a result, households in high-cost areas could face a replacement-rate penalty if their employers offer higher wages. The questions are: 1) How large is this penalty in practice? and 2) Do workers respond to the penalty by adjusting their behavior? This brief, based on a recent paper, uses the Health and Retirement Study to document the relationship between local cost-of-living – captured by housing prices – and Social Security replacement rates. It then explores whether households in high-cost areas compensate for lower replacement rates by responding in three possible ways: saving more during their working years; retiring later; and/or moving to a lower-cost area when they retire. The discussion proceeds as follows. The first section provides background on the link between local cost-of-living and Social Security replacement rates. The second section describes the data and methodology. The third section presents results for the association between local cost-of-living, replacement rates, and household behavior. The final section concludes that Social Security replacement rates are lower in moreexpensive areas, but the gap is somewhat smaller than anticipated because earnings have only partially kept up with the cost of financing a house. In response to the gap that does exist, households – especially the more educated – save more; and some homeowners move after retirement.
    Date: 2022–12
  16. By: Echeverría, Lucía; Gimenez-Nadal, J. Ignacio; Molina, José Alberto
    Abstract: Mobility gives individuals access to different daily activities, facilities, and places, but at the cost of imposing environmental externalities. The sustainable growth of society is linked to green mobility (e.g., public transport, walking, cycling) as a way to alleviate individual carbon footprints. This study explores the socio-demographic profile of individuals performing green travel (public and active modes of transport) and identifies cross-country differences in green travel behavior. We rely on information from the Multinational Time Use Study, MTUS, for Bulgaria, Canada, Spain, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States, from 2000 to 2019. We estimate Ordinary Least Squares regressions modelling individual decisions regarding green mobility. Our results indicate that the socio-demographic and family profile of travelers is not homogenous across green modes of transport, with walking as a mode of travel exhibiting a much more consistent profile, across countries, in comparison to the use of public transport and cycling. Results indicate that some countries are more prone to green travel, and that transport infrastructure is a factor in the proportion of time spent on both public and active transport. Our findings help in understanding who is committed to green mobility, while revealing interesting systematic differences across countries
    Keywords: Perfil del Viajero; Medios de Transporte; Transporte No Motorizado; Transporte Público; 2000-2019;
    Date: 2022–09
  17. By: Nelson, Peter; Cromartie, John
    Abstract: This paper examines how movement between and within communities was linked to the initial arrival and spread of Coronavirus (COVID-19) infections into and through nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) counties. Drawing on data from governmental and non-governmental sources, the analysis reveals patterns of hierarchical diffusion, with COVID-19 infections quickly spreading to progressively smaller places during the first 3 months of 2020. COVID-19 arrived earlier in nonmetro counties with stronger migration ties to metro regions. Once present in a nonmetro county, the infection spread more quickly in those where populations were less able to limit day-to-day movements, and overall nonmetro counties were less able to limit day-to-day mobility compared to metro counties. From April through June 2020, counties where mobility remained high (similar to pre-pandemic levels) showed COVID-19 infection rates twice those of counties with greater reductions in day-to-day mobility. While infection rates increased across all nonmetro counties through summer 2020, the gap persisted between counties with reduced local mobility and those with high mobility. These findings suggest that in the absence of medical interventions (e.g., vaccines and treatment), limiting movement between and within places may slow the spread of highly contagious viruses, and certain types of places may be less able to implement these nonmedical tactics and may therefore be at greater risk in future pandemics. The analysis also suggests that more risk-prone communities may benefit from more robust testing programs.
    Keywords: Community/Rural/Urban Development, Environmental Economics and Policy, Health Economics and Policy
    Date: 2022–11–02
  18. By: Jo\~ao M. Souto-Maior
    Abstract: This article investigates mechanism-based explanations for a well-known empirical pattern in sociology of education, namely, that Black-White unequal access to school resources -- defined as advanced coursework -- is the highest in racially diverse and majority-White schools. Through an empirically calibrated and validated agent-based model, this study explores the dynamics of two qualitatively informed mechanisms, showing (1) that we have reason to believe that the presence of White students in school can influence the emergence of Black-White advanced enrollment disparities and (2) that such influence can represent another possible explanation for the macro-level pattern of interest. Results contribute to current scholarly accounts of within-school inequalities, shedding light into policy strategies to improve the educational experiences of Black students in racially integrated settings.
    Date: 2023–04
  19. By: Marialuisa Divella (Department of Political Sciences, Universita' degli Studi di Bari); Alessia Lo Turco (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (UNIVPM)); Alessandro Sterlacchini (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (UNIVPM))
    Abstract: In this paper we adopt a task approach to measure the local pool of capabilities which can more effectively spur innovation. By focusing on the core activities that workers undertake in their jobs, we build an abstract task intensity measure of occupations to proxy the ability in analysing and solving complex problems, as well as in coordinating and integrating people with different knowledge endowments, that should be especially relevant for the process of invention and innovation. We thus estimate the relationship between the local abstract intensity and the inventive performance, proxied by granted patents, of US Commuting Zones during the period 2000-2015. The evidence provided, robust to a wide array of sensitivity checks, points to the extent of workers’ engagement in abstract tasks across Commuting Zones as a crucial determinant of the local inventive activity.
    Keywords: human capital, labour tasks, local abstract intensity, patents, US Commuting Zones
    JEL: R10 R12 O31 O33
    Date: 2023–04
  20. By: Patrick Bennett (University of Liverpool); Kai Liu (University of Cambridge); Kjell Salvanes (Norwegian School of Economics)
    Abstract: How does a large structural change to the labor market affect education investments made at young ages? Exploiting differential exposure to the national decline in routine-task intensity across local labor markets, we show that the secular decline in routine tasks causes major shifts in education investments of high school students, where they invest less in vocational-trades education and increasingly invest in college education. Our results highlight that labor demand changes impact inequality in the next generation. Low-ability and low-SES students are most responsive to task-biased demand changes and, as a result, intergenerational mobility in college education increases.
    Keywords: Local labor markets, routine tasks, task-biased demand change, human capital, college, intergenerational mobility
    JEL: I24 J23 J24 J62
    Date: 2023–03
  21. By: David R. Agrawal; Kenneth Tester
    Abstract: Prior studies show that taxes matter for the residential locations of high-income earners. But, states raise a significant share of revenue from nonresidents. Using variation in state tax rates, we provide causal evidence on the effect of the net-of-tax rate on the location of labor supply for professional golfers. State taxes induce high-income earners to shift employment to low-tax states without a residence change. The elasticity of working in a state is 0.34, and consistent with superstar phenomenon, increases with earnings. Our results suggest a novel margin of mobility responses for top-earners: the spatial relocation of labor supply by nonresidents.
    Keywords: state taxes, superstars, taxing the rich, avoidance, mobility, high-frequency labor supply
    JEL: J22 J61 H26 H73 R50
    Date: 2023
  22. By: Peter Q. Blair
    Abstract: When the fraction of minorities in a neighborhood exceeds the tipping point white flight accelerates. I develop a revealed-preference method to estimate the tipping points of 38, 000 census tracts and the preferences of households for minority neighbors in the 123 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) covered by these census tracts over 40 years (1970-2010). I find that the average tipping point in an MSA initially covaries more with the racial attitudes of households than the outside options that they face but that this relationship reverses overtime. Ignoring outside options would obscure the declining role that racial attitudes play in understanding segregation.
    JEL: J60 R21 R23
    Date: 2023–04
  23. By: Petia Topalova; Ms. Laura Valderrama; Ms. Marina Marinkov; Patrik Gorse
    Abstract: European housing markets are at a turning point as the cost-of-living crisis has eroded real incomes and the surge in interest rates has made borrowers more vulnerable to financial distress. This paper aims to (i) shed light on the risks in European housing markets, (ii) quantify household vulnerabilties, (iii) assess banking sector implications and (iv) examine policies’ effectiveness using simulations based on microdata from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) and EU statistics on income and living conditions (EU-SILC). Under the baseline IMF macroeconomic forecast, the share of households that could struggle to meet basic expenses could rise by 10 pps reaching a third of all households by end 2023. Under an adverse scenario, 45 percent of households could be financially stretched, representing over 40 percent of mortgage debt and 45 percent of consumer debt. The impact on the banking sector seems contained under the baseline forecast, though there are pockets of vulnerability. A 20 percent house price correction could deplete CET1 capital by 100-300 basis points. Fiscal measures, such as subsidies to the bottom income tercile, could save 7 percent of households from financial distress at an estimated cost of 0.8 percent of GDP.
    Keywords: Housing markets; overvaluation; affordability; household vulnerability; tenure status; income distribution; consumption; financial stability; targeted support; macroprudential policy.
    Date: 2023–03–24
  24. By: Martínez, Carlos Cañizares; de Bondt, Gabe; Gieseck, Arne
    Abstract: This study applies a model averaging approach to conditionally forecast housing investment in the largest euro area countries and the euro area. To account for substantial modelling uncertainty, it estimates many vector error correction models (VECMs) using a wide set of short and long-run determinants and selects the most promising specifications based on in-sample and out-of-sample criteria. Our results highlight marked cross-country heterogeneity in the key drivers of housing investment which calls for country-specific housing market policies. A pseudo out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that our model averaging approach beats a battery of ambitious benchmark models, including BVARs, FAVARs, LASSO and Ridge regressions. This suggests that there is ample scope for model averaging tools in forecast exercises, notably as they also help to reduce model uncertainty and can be used to assess forecast uncertainty. JEL Classification: C32, C51, C52, C53, E22
    Keywords: Housing investment, model and forecast averaging, Tobin’s Q, VECM
    Date: 2023–04
  25. By: Fischer, Manfred M.; Gopal, Sucharita
    Abstract: This paper employs a spatial Durbin panel data model, an extension of the cross-sectional spatial Durbin model to a panel data framework, to quantify the impact of a set of sociodemographic and socioeconomic factors that influence opioid-related mortality in the US. The empirical model uses a pool of 49 US states over six years from 2014 to 2019, and a nearest-neighbor matrix that represents the topological structure between the states. Calculation of direct (own-state) and indirect (cross-state spillovers) effects estimates is based on Bayesian estimation and inference reflecting a proper interpretation of the marginal effects for the model that involves spatial lags of the dependent and independent variables. The study provides evidence that opioid mortality depends not only on the characteristics of the state itself (direct effects), but also on those of nearby states (indirect effects). Direct effects are important, but externalities (spatial spillovers) are more important. The sociodemographic structure (age and race) of a state is important whereas economic distress of a state is less so, as indicated by the total impact estimates. The methodology and the research findings provide a useful template for future empirical work using other geographic locations or shifting interest to other epidemics.
    Keywords: Spatial Durbin panel data model; Bayesian econometrics; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; direct (own state) effects; indirect (cross-state spatial spillover) effects; inferential statistics
    Date: 2023–04–21
  26. By: Guilhem Lecouteux (Université Côte d'Azur; GREDEG, CNRS, France); Léonard Moulin (INED)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to measure the role of social inuence in transport mode switch to cycling. We propose an original approach to measure in the context of a natural experiment the inuence of social factors on individual intentions within the theory of interpersonal behaviour, by modelling explicitly the diusion of cycling within the population. We consider the time period following the end of the rst COVID-19- lockdown in May 2020 in Paris, France, and estimate a simple model of social imitation based on data from the City of Paris' Open Data initiative, integrating also in our estimation geographical and temporal xed-eects, as well as controls for the level of precipitation. We nd that the increasing adoption of cycling between May and July 2020 can indeed be explained as the result of a new social dynamic tending to increase the switching rate between transport modes.
    Keywords: Coronapistes, social imitation, urban design, cycling adoption, COVID-19, theory of interpersonal behaviour
    Date: 2023–02
  27. By: Ioannou, Petros; Chen, Pengfei
    Abstract: Today’s airport terminals face a critical problem of traffic congestion in the terminal area partly caused by uncoordinated shuttle operations. The congestion near pick-up and drop-off points negatively affects passenger traffic leading to unnecessary idling, delays and congestion with negative impact on air quality and mobility. The need for an intelligent shuttle management system becomes more urgent with the development of information technologies, battery electric shuttles and autonomous vehicles. In this project, we developed a centrally coordinated shuttle scheduling and routing management system for mixed fleets of diesel and electric shuttles using a digital twin of LAX to LA downtown traffic road network by optimizing the total combined cost of energy consumption and travel time. A Co-Simulation Optimization method is used to solve the problem. The objective is to reduce congestion at the designated pick up and drop off points due to different shuttles showing up at these points during overlapping time windows which exceed the curb capacity. Another objective is to integrate into the system mixed fleet of shuttles that include diesel and battery operated. The proposed centrally coordinated shuttle scheduling and routing management system takes into account the characteristics of mixed shuttle fleets and is shown to reduce the operational cost such as energy consumption and delays. The results also suggest the deployment of electric shuttles in order to reduce emissions and improve air quality further. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Shuttle Scheduling and Routing, Load Balancing System, Co-Simulation, Mixed Shuttle Fleet, Electric Shuttle, Autonomous Shuttle
    Date: 2023–04–01
  28. By: Ogundari, Kolawole
    Abstract: Conventional wisdom shows that crime exhibits a countercyclical pattern-trending up during recessions and down during economic expansion. This observation makes the analyzes of the determinants of the crime of interest to researchers to inform policy. To this end, the present study employs historical data to analyze the effects of economic conditions on crime rates in the U.S. The analysis is based on balanced panel data from all 50 states and the district of Columbia on violent and property crime rates covering from 1976-2019. We employed the linear and dynamic panel models, while four indicators of economic conditions were considered in this study. The empirical results show that these commonly used economic indicators significantly affect crime rates. Specifically, we found that unemployment rates and income inequality increased crime rates, while personal income and economic growth decreased crime rates. This shows that continued efforts to reduce unemployment and inequality coupled with policies to boost personal income and economic growth are vital to restrain future crime increases in the U.S. However, these findings are supported by the linear and dynamic model specifications employed in this study.
    Keywords: Crime rates, Property crime, Violent crime, economic conditions, determinants, U.S
    JEL: K00 O1
    Date: 2021–09–10
  29. By: Cecilia Garcia-Peñalosa; Fabien Petit; Tanguy van Ypersele
    Abstract: The increase in employment polarization observed in several high-income economies has coincided with a reduction in inter-generational mobility. This paper argues that the disappearance of middling jobs can drive changes in mobility, notably by removing a stepping stone towards high-paying occupations for those from less well-off family backgrounds. Using data from two British cohorts who entered the labour market at two points in time with very different degrees of employment polarization, we examine how parental income affects both entry occupations and occupational upgrading over careers. We find that transitions across occupations are key to mobility and that the impact of parental income has grown over time. At regional level, using a shift-share IV-strategy, we show that the impact of parental income has increased the most in regions experiencing the greatest increase in polarisation. This indicates that the disappearance of middling jobs played a role in the observed decline in mobility.
    Keywords: British cohort, inter-generational mobility, job polarization, parental income, occupational transition
    JEL: J21 J24 J62 O33 R23
    Date: 2023
  30. By: Gregory Price; Angelino Viceisza
    Abstract: Historically Black colleges and universities are institutions that were established prior to 1964 with the principal mission of educating Black Americans. In this essay, we focus on two main issues. We start by examining how Black College students perform across HBCUs and non-HBCUs by looking at a relatively broad range of outcomes, including college and graduate school completion, job satisfaction, social mobility, civic engagement, and health. HBCUs punch significantly above their weight, especially considering their significant lack of resources. We then turn to the potential causes of these differences and provide a glimpse into the “secret sauce” of HBCUs. We conclude with potential implications for HBCU and non-HBCU policy.
    JEL: I21 J01 J15 Z13
    Date: 2023–04
  31. By: Sarah Cattan (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Ruth Gilbert (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Suzet Tanya Lereya; Yeosun Yoon; Jessica Deighton
    Date: 2022–10–13
  32. By: Byrne, Shane (Central Bank of Ireland); Devine, Kenneth (Central Bank of Ireland); McCarthy, Yvonne (Central Bank of Ireland)
    Abstract: A widespread tendency for mortgage holders to forego opportunities to reduce their repayment burden through refinancing has been well documented. This puzzle has persisted in spite of considerable regulatory and public attention to the topic. In this Letter, we conduct a randomised controlled trial on a sample of circa 12, 000 mortgage holders to test how targeted enhancements to an existing disclosure can prompt greater take-up of advantageous refinancing opportunities. The results show the best performing enhancement delivered a 76 per cent increase in the number of refinances completed, when compared against the pre-existing standard disclosure. Refinancers benefit materially, saving on average €1, 209 just within the first 12 months after action. We observe that reminders substantially drive the increased uptake, and that the incorporation of personalised euro savings estimates as part of the menu of refinancing options presented to consumers can also help them to more easily weigh-up their opportunities and make the best informed choices . These results demonstrate the value of integrating behavioural economics into consumer protection policymaking.
    Date: 2022–12
  33. By: Alexander Ugarov
    Abstract: The paper describes a potential platform to facilitate academic peer review with emphasis on early-stage research. This platform aims to make peer review more accurate and timely by rewarding reviewers on the basis of peer prediction algorithms. The algorithm uses a variation of Peer Truth Serum for Crowdsourcing (Radanovic et al., 2016) with human raters competing against a machine learning benchmark. We explain how our approach addresses two large productive inefficiencies in science: mismatch between research questions and publication bias. Better peer review for early research creates additional incentives for sharing it, which simplifies matching ideas to teams and makes negative results and p-hacking more visible.
    Date: 2023–03
  34. By: Philip Adams; Louise Roos
    Abstract: Greenhouse gas emissions in Jordan come primarily from the combustion of refined oil products in transport. Hence, plans to reduce emissions focus primarily on the transport sector. These plans, often detailed from a technological point of view, seldom present reasoned economic measures of likely consequences. This paper provides an assessment of the likely economic costs and benefits for Jordan of two typical schemes to reduce the environmental effects of transport. Both relate to the delivery of passenger services. The first is to encourage the uptake of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) at the expense of Internal Combustion Vehicles (ICVs) and, to a lesser extent, hybrid vehicles. The second is to invest in new public transport infrastructure -- phase 2 of the Bus Rapid Transport system -- assisting to reduce the use of private vehicles principally in urban areas. The analysis is based on scenarios to 2050 constructed using a large model of Jordan's economy, named JorGE. JorGE is calibrated to data for 2020 and has a detailed industrial classification. That classification recognizes electricity produced by several different conventional fossil fuel and renewable technologies and a number of road transport service industries. The road transport industries distinguish passenger from freight services. For passenger services there are separate industries producing public transport services and private transport services. The latter is further disaggregated into services provided by the three different passenger vehicle types -- ICVs, EVs and Hybrids.
    Keywords: CGE modelling, electric vehicles (BEV), internal combustion vehicles (ICV), greenhouse gas, public transport
    JEL: C68 R41
    Date: 2023–04
  35. By: Hattori, Keisuke; Yamada, Mai
    Abstract: Social interactions in the workplace can generate reciprocal peer effects and narrow the psychological distance for team prosociality among coworkers. Incorporating such a psychological interdependence into a team production model, we investigate how the optimal social interactions characterized by the type of task the team is performing (complementary or substitutable tasks) and the vertical and horizontal structure of the team (with or without leadership). We find that in the case of complementary tasks, social interactions can enhance team performance not only for horizontal teams but also for vertical teams led by more prosocial leaders, by narrowing the prosociality gap among members and resolving task bottlenecks. On the other hand, in the cases of horizontal and vertical teams performing substitutable tasks and vertical teams performing complementary tasks supported by a more prosocial follower, social interactions can actually decrease team performance. Our results provide important implications for organizations in considering when, for what type of team, by whom, and to what extent to promote social interaction within teams that bring members' personal (psychological) distances closer, as a means of enhancing organizational effectiveness.
    Keywords: team production; social interaction; prosociality; reciprocity; team leadership; peer effects
    JEL: C72 D21 M50
    Date: 2023–04–12
  36. By: Sarah Cattan (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Gabriella Conti (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Christine Farquharson (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Rita Ginja (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Maud Pecher (Institute for Fiscal Studies)
    Date: 2022–10–13
  37. By: Henning Hermes; Philipp Lergetporer; Fabian Mierisch; Frauke Peter; Simon Wiederhold
    Abstract: emails from fictitious parents to > 18, 000 early child care centers across Germany, asking if there is a slot available and how to apply. Randomly varying names to signal migration background, we find that migrants receive 4.4 percentage points fewer responses. Responses to migrants also contain substantially fewer slot offers, are shorter, and less encouraging. Exploring channels, discrimination against migrants does not differ by the perceived educational background of the email sender. However, it does differ by regional characteristics, being stronger in areas with lower shares of migrants in child care, higher right-wing vote shares, and lower financial resources. Discrimination on the child care market likely perpetuates existing inequalities of opportunities for disadvantaged children.
    Keywords: child care, discrimination, information provision, inequality, field experiment
    JEL: J13 J18 J22 C93
    Date: 2023–04
  38. By: Zuleika Ferre; Patricia Triunfo; Jos\'e-Ignacio Ant\'on
    Abstract: Abundant evidence has tracked the labour market and health assimilation of immigrants, including static analyses of differences in how foreign-born and native-born residents consume health care services. However, we know much less about how migrants' patterns of health care usage evolve with time of residence, especially in countries providing universal or quasi-universal coverage. We investigate this process in Spain by combining all the available waves of the local health survey, which allows us to separately identify period, cohort, and assimilation effects. We find that the evidence of health assimilation is limited and solely applies to migrant females' visits to general practitioners. Nevertheless, the differential effects of ageing on health care use between foreign-born and native-born populations contributes to the convergence of utilisation patterns in most health services after 20 years in Spain. Substantial heterogeneity over time and by region of origin both suggest that studies modelling future welfare state finances would benefit from a more thorough assessment of migration.
    Date: 2023–04
  39. By: Kanis Saengchote; Voraprapa Nakavachara; Yishuang Xu
    Abstract: When land becomes more connected, its value can change because of network externalities. This idea is intuitive and appealing to developers and policymakers, but documenting their importance is empirically challenging because it is difficult to isolate the determinants of land value in practice. We address this challenge with real estate in The Sandbox, a virtual economy built on blockchain, which provides a series of natural experiments that can be used to estimate the causal impact of land-based of network externalities. Our results show that when new land becomes available, the network value of existing land increases, but there is a trade-off as new land also competes with existing supply. Our work illustrates the benefits of using virtual worlds to conduct policy experiments.
    Date: 2023–03
  40. By: Valdivia Coria, Joab Dan
    Abstract: This paper provides pioneering estimates of the impact of loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, also known as leverage, on economic growth in Bolivia. The analysis reveals the pro-cyclicality between the economic and financial cycles, confirming the stylized facts. We emphasize the significance of recognizing the interplay between these cycles to attain greater stability and foster economic growth. The findings suggest that shocks in the loan-to-value (LTV) ratios trigger a rise in housing prices and greater consumption by entrepreneurs, leading to an increase in economic growth and employment levels. However, we also confirm the notion that leverage can be a double-edged tool, as its excessive utilization can disrupt markets and destabilize the overall economy.
    Keywords: Real bussines cycles (RBC), financial frictions, loan to value (LTV), bayesian estimation.
    JEL: E21 E32 E44
    Date: 2022–08
  41. By: Cunha, Douglas; Monte, Daniel
    Abstract: We study long-lived rational agents who learn through experimentation and observing each other’s actions. Experimentation and social learning, even when combined, often lead to learning failures as agents may stop experimenting due to the Rothschild effect or social conformity. We show that when there is diversity in preferences, there will be complete learning in the limit, thereby overcoming these learning failures. Our analysis demonstrates the critical interaction between experimentation, social learning, and diversity and provides a new rationale for the increasingly held view that diversity is crucial in institutions.
    Keywords: two armed bandits, social learning, diversity
    JEL: D00 D83
    Date: 2023–04–18
  42. By: Tugba Bozcaga; Asli Cansunar
    Abstract: Education is a public service, assumed to be highly valued by citizens, allowing politicians to use it to reward their co-ethnics. However, nation-states have also used education to create loyal citizens, leaving politicians in times of heightened threat of ethnic mobilization. This study investigates whether assimilatory national public investments in ethnic minority areas induce violence.
    Keywords: Education, Social mobilization, Assimilation, Insurgency, Ethnic conflict, Turkey
    Date: 2023
  43. By: Raphael Brade; Oliver Himmler; Robert Jaeckle
    Abstract: We present first experimental evidence that relative performance feedback improves both the speed and quality with which challenging long-term tasks are completed. Providing university students with ongoing relative feedback on accumulated course credits accelerates graduation by 0.12 SD, and also improves grades by 0.063 SD. Treatment effects are concentrated among students with medium pre-treatment graduation probabilities: when these students are informed about an above-average performance, their outcomes improve – otherwise their outcomes deteriorate. Combined with survey evidence, this pattern of results suggests that learning about own ability is a plausible mechanism.
    Keywords: relative performance feedback, rank, natural field experiment, higher education, perceived ability, belief updating
    JEL: C93 D83 D91 I21 I23 I24
    Date: 2023
  44. By: Cherenkova Kseniya (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University); Mirzoyan Ashot (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University)
    Abstract: This paper assesses the impact of the network of social interactions on the academic results of students who studied at the Faculty of Economics of Lomonosov Moscow State University in 2021-2022 academic year in the third year of study. The study examines the impact of social interaction on compulsory math subjects of 2-3 courses: Mathematical statistics and Econometrics. Data on the structure of the social network was collected using a survey, which allows you to accurately determine which students influence each other. Effect effect social interaction was assessed using a linear-averaged model. To eliminate the effect of self-selection, a tool is formed with which the presence of the influence of "friends through one handshake", which is exogenous, is checked. The stability of the results is checked by forming a fake network with a random structure of connections. In the work, it was possible to identify the effect of the influence of social interactions on the results of the econometrics exam: on average, all other things being equal, the better the student's friends study, the better he studies by himself. At the same time, there was no significant effect of social ties on the results of the exam in Mathematical Statistics: this can be explained by the fact that students took the exam remotely. Additional research is required to test this hypothesis .
    Keywords: Social connections, students, academic success, neighbor effect, network effects
    JEL: A22 A29
    Date: 2022–12
  45. By: Tal, Gil; Benoliel, Peter K; Garcia Sanchez, Juan Carlos; Hernandez Rios, Kevin
    Keywords: Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2023–04–12
  46. By: Biegert, Thomas; Özcan, Berkay; Rossetti Youlton, Magdalena
    Abstract: The authors use Current Population Survey 2016 to 2021 quarterly data to analyze changes in household joblessness across metropolitan areas in the United States during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. The authors first use shift-share analysis to decompose the change in household joblessness into changes in individual joblessness, household compositions, and polarization. The focus is on polarization, which is the result of the unequal distribution of individual joblessness across households. The authors find that the rise in household joblessness during the pandemic varies strongly across U.S. metropolitan areas. The initial stark increase and subsequent recovery are due largely to changes in individual joblessness. Polarization contributes notably to household joblessness but to varying degree. Second, the authors use metropolitan area–level fixed-effects regressions to test whether the educational profile of the population is a helpful predictor of changes in household joblessness and polarization. They measure three distinct features: educational levels, educational heterogeneity, and educational homogamy. Although much of the variance remains unexplained, household joblessness increased less in areas with higher educational levels. The authors show that how polarization contributes to household joblessness is shaped by educational heterogeneity and educational homogamy.
    Keywords: household joblessness; Covid-19; polarization; educational profiles; metropolitan areas; coronavirus; Research Support Fund
    JEL: N0 R14 J01
    Date: 2023–03–27
  47. By: Sauermann, Miklas Pascal
    Abstract: Social entrepreneurship has emerged as a critical driver for promoting sustainable development in low-income communities facing pressing social and environmental challenges. However, the factors that contribute to the success of such initiatives and the obstacles faced by social entrepreneurs remain poorly understood. This study employs a mixed-methods approach, drawing on data collected from surveys of 60 community members and interviews with 20 social entrepreneurs operating in low-income communities to examine the role of social entrepreneurship in fostering sustainable development. The results reveal that successful social entrepreneurship initiatives in low-income communities require strong leadership, community engagement, funding accessibility, and adaptability. Moreover, social entrepreneurship has the potential to advance sustainable development through the provision of innovative solutions to complex social and environmental problems, the promotion of local economic development, and the enhancement of community resilience. However, the study also highlights several challenges social entrepreneurs face in low-income communities, including navigating complex regulatory environments, securing funding, and establishing community trust. Addressing these obstacles requires collaboration between social entrepreneurs, policymakers, and other stakeholders, as well as the development of tailored support mechanisms that address the unique needs of social entrepreneurship initiatives.
    Keywords: Social Entrepreneurship, Sustainable Development, Low-Income Communities, Impact Assessment
    JEL: L31 Q01
    Date: 2023–03–27
  48. By: Fletcher, Jason M. (University of Wisconsin-Madison); Topping, Michael (University of Wisconsin-Madison); Joo, Won-tak (University of Wisconsin-Madison)
    Abstract: This paper uses massive online genealogy data from the United States over the 19th century to estimate period and cohort-based sex differences in longevity. Following previous work, we find a longevity reversal in the mid-19th century that expanded rapidly for at least a half century. For measures of conditional survival past childbearing age, females enjoyed a longevity advantage for the whole century. Unlike most mortality databases of this period, genealogical data allows analysis of spatial patterns and of the impacts of fertility on longevity. Our results suggest very limited evidence of spatial (state) variation in these patterns. We do, however, find evidence that the associations between fertility and longevity partially explain the trends.
    Keywords: longevity, sex differences, US, genealogy
    JEL: J11
    Date: 2023–03
  49. By: Chen, Stacey H. (University of Tokyo); Chen, Jennjou (National Chengchi University); Chuang, Hongwei (International University of Japan); Lin, Tzu-Hsin (National Taiwan University)
    Abstract: We use the medical specialties of physician-patients with advanced cancer to study the role of knowledge versus networks in treatment choices and patient survival by matching comparable patients with doctors and admission periods to control unobserved doctor quality. Physician-patients are less likely to have surgery, radiation, or checkups and more likely to receive targeted therapy, spend more on drugs, enjoy a higher survival rate, and spend less on coinsurance than non-physician-patients. Knowledge mechanisms play a crucial role because the network effect explains some, but not all, patterns. For less informed physician-patients, possessing a network is equivalent to reducing medical knowledge.
    Keywords: physician quality, social ties, communication, information
    JEL: D83 I11 J44
    Date: 2023–03
  50. By: Anindya Bhattacharya; Anirban Kar; Alita Nandi
    Abstract: In this paper we explore two intertwined issues. First, using primary data we examine the impact of asymmetric networks, built on rich relational information on several spheres of living, on access to workfare employment in rural India. We find that unidirectional relations, as opposed to reciprocal relations, and the concentration of such unidirectional relations increase access to workfare jobs. Further in-depth exploration provides evidence that patron-client relations are responsible for this differential access to such employment for rural households. Complementary to our empirical exercises, we construct and analyse a game-theoretical model supporting our findings.
    Date: 2023–04
  51. By: Ufuk Akcigit; Nathan Goldschlag
    Abstract: Innovation is a key driver of long run economic growth. Studying innovation requires a clear view of the characteristics and behavior of the individuals that create new ideas. A general lack of rich, large-scale data has constrained such analyses. We address this by introducing a new dataset linking patent inventors to survey, census, and administrative microdata at the U.S. Census Bureau. We use this data to provide a first look at the demographic characteristics, employer characteristics, earnings, and employment dynamics of inventors. These linkages, which will be available to researchers with approved access, dramatically increases the scope of what can be learned about inventors and innovative activity.
    JEL: O3 O4
    Date: 2023–03
  52. By: Bhaumik, Sumon K. (University of Sheffield); Chowdhury, Subhasish M. (University of Sheffield); Dimova, Ralitza (University of Manchester); Fromell, Hanna (Aarhus University)
    Abstract: We investigate experimentally the effects of information about native/immigrant identity, and the ability to communicate a self-chosen personal characteristic towards the rival on conflict behavior. In a two-player individual contest with British and Immigrant subjects in the UK we find that neither information about identity nor communicating self-characteristics significantly affect the average level of conflict. Both of those, however, significantly affect players' strategies, in the sense of the extent they involve conflict over time. Overall, the results indicate that inter-personal communication may help to mitigate high intensity conflicts when the identities are common knowledge among rivals.
    Keywords: conflict, experiment, identity, immigrant, communication
    JEL: C72 C91 D72
    Date: 2023–03
  53. By: Jose Luis Martinez-Gonzalez (Universitat de Barcelona – Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain)
    Abstract: Can attitudes and beliefs within each community, as well as their social capital, explain some of the differences in their development? Conducting a macro study in the Maresme region using data from the Contribution Territorial, which includes 5, 412 agricultural farms, 2, 537 owners, and 13 municipalities (1853-1864), we find levels of rational altruism approaching 50%, confirming recent evidence from experimental economics studies. A particularly interesting finding is the correlation between the most altruistic municipalities 160 years ago and those today with higher levels of human capital and per capita family income, as well as the influence of certain study variables on the prosocial behavior of local oligarchies. This result suggests that the attitudes, beliefs, values, and informal rural rules of the past are factors that complement the quality of national institutions today. Economic history not only helps to explain the origins and different trajectories of local economic development, but, more importantly, informs us that investing in regional policies that promote community spirit is a worthwhile endeavor for the future.
    Keywords: Altruism, peasant communities, human capital, informal institutions, development, social change, collective action
    JEL: B52 D03 D64 N33 O43
    Date: 2023–04
  54. By: Sophie PLAGERSON; Senzelwe MTHEMBU; Thandi SIMELANE; Khuliso MATIDZA; Anita MWANDA
    Abstract: Following the onset of COVID-19 in April 2020, this qualitative study considered the effects of the Social Relief of Distress (SRD) grant on local economies in five urban and peri-urban locations in South Africa, through the perspectives of informal traders. In a context of acute inequality, the SRD was introduced at a time of economic, health and social crisis due to the onset of COVID and measures implemented to limit its spread and was a key policy mechanism intended to ameliorate the differential effects of these measures on vulnerable groups. Key findings from the study are that:(i) widespread receipt of the SRD led to an increase in customer demand within local economies;(ii) the SRD played a redistributive role by extending a social protection mechanism to previously excluded constituencies including informal workers and unemployed youth;(iii) the SRD helped informal trader businesses survive and in some cases new businesses were initiated;(iv) the SRD supported the circulation of people, goods and money and stimulated higher transaction intensity in different sectors (food and non-food) and across value chains;(v) economic multipliers associated with the SRD included the ability to afford transport costs for traders and customers and the ability for traders to stock small items.Although the SRD could not reverse the negative impacts of COVID-19, and cannot be considered a standalone intervention, it did function as an effective shock-responsive mechanism for households and local economies. The detection of economic multipliers in a time of emergency, signals the potential for a long term intervention that could be beneficial to local economies.
    Keywords: Afrique du Sud
    JEL: Q
    Date: 2023–04–05
  55. By: Ms. Laura Valderrama
    Abstract: Housing market developments are in the spotlight in Europe. Over-stretched valuations amid tightening financial conditions and a cost-of-living crisis have increased risks of a sustained downturn and exposed challenging trade-offs for macroprudential policy between ensuring financial system resilience and smoothing the macro-financial cycle. Against this backdrop, this paper provides detailed considerations regarding how to (re)set macroprudential policy tools in response to housing-related systemic risk in Europe, providing design solutions to avoid unintended consequences during a tightening phase, and navigating the trade-offs between managing the build-up of vulnerabilities and the macro-financial cycle in a downturn. It also proposes a novel framework to measure the effectiveness of tools and avoid overlaps by quantifying the risks addressed by different macroprudential instruments. Finally, it introduces a taxonomy allowing to assess a country’s macroprudential stance and whether adjustments to current policy settings are warranted—such as the relaxation of capital-based tools and possibly some borrower-based measures in the event of a more severe downturn.
    Keywords: Housing markets; household vulnerability; income distribution; economic cycle; financial stability; macroprudential policy.
    Date: 2023–03–24
  56. By: Benoliel, Peter; Hernandez Rios, Kevin; Garcia Sanchez, Juan Carlos; Tal, Gil
    Keywords: Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2023–04–01
  57. By: Heikkinen, Daan
    Abstract: Schools have been forced to introduce new learning styles due to the recent pandemic crisis as a result of the necessity to cope with the epidemic in order to cope with the situation. While this new learning environment will certainly result in a number of students being able to adapt to it successfully, the extent to which they will be able to do so will be different from student to student, since most of them are being exposed to this type of environment for the first time. In this research, the aim of the study was to assess the degree to which the students were able to adjust to the new ways of learning in order to assess the level of adaptation. Based on the availability of their schools in the survey, we conducted a survey of all students across all schools in Asia, out of which 850 of them were randomly sampled across all schools in Asia in accordance with their accessibility. Data was collected by means of a questionnaire that was developed by the researcher in order to collect the data required for the research project. It should be noted that the respondents in this study were not subjected to any coercions for participating in the study, and therefore all ethical issues were considered when participating. We answered the research questions by using means, and hypothesis one was tested by using quantitative techniques at a significance level of 0.08, in order for the hypothesis to be tested. The majority of the students found distance education to be an uncomfortable and a data-consuming experience at the beginning of the study, as it was established during the course of the study. According to the research conducted by the author, the ability of students enrolled in public schools compared to those enrolled in private schools to adapt to new learning methods was significantly different between those enrolled in public and private schools. In conclusion, it was found that students are getting used to the new learning style introduced by their schools as a result of the fact that they only have that option of learning in their schools.
    Keywords: Learners' adaptive abilities, learning economy, new learning styles; schoolchildren's learning, learning and development in the wake of the pandemic.
    JEL: D8 D83 O3 O33
    Date: 2023–03–20
  58. By: Ufuk Akcigit; Nathan Goldschlag
    Abstract: How are inventors allocated in the US economy and does that allocation affect innovative capacity? To answer these questions, we first build a model of creative destruction where an inventor with a new idea has the possibility to work for an entrant or incumbent firm. If the inventor works for the entrant the innovation is implemented and the entrant displaces the incumbent firm. Strategic considerations encourage the incumbent to hire the inventor, offering higher wages, and then not implement the inventor's idea. To test this prediction, we combine data on the employment history of over 760 thousand U.S. inventors with information on jobs from the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) Program at the U.S. Census Bureau. Our results show that (i) inventors are increasingly concentrated in large incumbents, less likely to work for young firms, and less likely to become entrepreneurs, and (ii) when an inventor is hired by an incumbent, compared to a young firm, their earnings increases by 12.6 percent and their innovative output declines by 6 to 11 percent. We also show that these patterns are robust and not driven by life cycle effects or occupational composition effects.
    JEL: O3 O4
    Date: 2023–03
  59. By: Kiselev Sergei (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University); Samsonov Valery (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University); Seitov Sanat (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University); Filimonov Ilya (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University)
    Abstract: The purpose of this article is to assess the impact of the results of unobserved economic activity on the value of the main macroeconomic indicator at the regional level in the Russian Federation – the gross regional product. The article uses the definition of the category "unobservable economy", first formally formulated in the 1993 SNA, developed by the UN Statistical Commission. Based on it, a statistical assessment of the shadow economy in the subjects of the Russian Federation from 2010 to 2020 was carried out by improving the existing methodology of Rosstat due to the fact that at the regional level, the GVA is not adjusted for operations that are not observed by direct statistical methods. The relative scales of the unobservable component were measured, i.e. its share in GRP in 80 subjects of the Russian Federation. The calculations refuted the main hypothesis that Moscow has the largest relative scale of the unobserved economy. For example, in 2020, the Sakha Republic turned out to be such a region of Russia (36.6% against the federal 13.0%).certain students were randomly included in the control group and the treatment group.
    Keywords: Unobserved economy, gross regional product
    JEL: C10 C12 C49
    Date: 2023–02
  60. By: Gigout, Timothee (Banque de France); London, Melina (European Commission)
    Abstract: We study how international trade networks react to natural disasters. We combine exhaustive firm-to-firm trade credit and disaster data and use a dynamic difference-in-differences identification strategy. We establish the causal effect of natural disasters abroad on the size, shape and quality of French exporters' international trade networks. We find evidence of large and persistent disruptions to international buyer-supplier relationships. This leads to a restructuring of the trade network of the largest French exporters and a change in trade finance sources for affected countries. We find strong and permanent negative effects on the trade credit sales of French suppliers to affected destinations. The largest firms are driving the response, both on the supplier and buyer side. Trade network restructuring towards unaffected destinations is higher for large multinationals trading more homogeneous products. This effect operates exclusively through a reduction in the number of buyers. This induces a negative shift in the distribution of the quality of buyers in the destination affected by the natural disaster.
    Keywords: Firm Dynamics; Trade Networks; Natural Disaster, Granularity
    JEL: E32 F14 F23 F44 L14
    Date: 2023–02
  61. By: Almeida, Derick; Sequeira, Tiago
    Abstract: We reassess the relationship between robotization and the growth in labor productivity with more recent data. We discover that the effect of robot density in the growth productivity substantially decreased in the post-2008 period. In this period, the lower positive effect of robot density in the growth of labor productivity is less dependent on the increase in value added. The data analysis dismisses any positive effect of robotization on hours worked. Results are confirmed by several robustness checks, cross-sectional (and panel-data) IV and quantile regression analysis. By means of the quantile regression analysis, we learn that the effect of robots on labor productivity is stronger for low productivity sectors and that in the most recent period, the effect of robotization felt significantly throughout the distribution. This highlights one of the possible sources of stagnation in the era of robotization and have implication both for labor market and R&D policies.
    Keywords: New General Purpose Technologies, Robotization, Labor Productivity, Productivity Growth, Stagnation
    JEL: E23 J23 O30
    Date: 2023
  62. By: Lordan, Grace; Josten, Cecily
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has brought with it a debate around which skills will be the most valuable in its aftermath. This study discusses the relevance of social skills in this debate and presents new evidence that shows its necessity. Specifically, we focus on knowledge workers and highlight that the importance of social skills was increasing pre-COVID-19 for these workers and that this importance has increased further during the pandemic, particularly for those in management roles. This study has also emphasised that we are at the beginning of the learning curve in understanding how social skills can be taught effectively to adults, and in particular knowledge workers. Establishing this evidence base is particularly important as governments around the world reconsider their skills agenda as a way to build up their economies post COVID-19.
    Keywords: coronavirus; Covid-19
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2021–05–03
  63. By: Nathalie Jarraud (TREE - Transitions Energétiques et Environnementales - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour)
    Abstract: Identify the outlook for the hotel industry in a declining and crisis situation
    Keywords: COVID-19, Hotel industry, Tourism, Crisis
    Date: 2023–03–27

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