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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Daniel Hartley; Jonathan D. Rose |
| Abstract: | We study the impacts of blockbusting, i.e. large-scale racial turnover of urban neighborhoods orchestrated by real estate professionals using aggressive and discriminatory practices. In a panel of census tracts across large cities in the postwar United States, we compare tracts subjected to blockbusting activity to similar neighboring tracts not subjected to blockbusting. We find that blockbusting caused substantially lower house values over the next few decades. To understand the mechanisms behind this effect, we analyze property-level data in one neighborhood of Baltimore, Maryland. We find that new residents that purchased their properties through blockbusters were charged higher prices and had higher foreclosure rates than new residents that purchased directly from existing property owners. |
| Keywords: | blockbusting; wealth-gap; housing finance discrimination |
| JEL: | G21 N22 N92 R23 R51 |
| Date: | 2023–01–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:95623&r=ure |
| By: | Niels Kuiper; Mark Van Duijn; Arno Van der Vlist |
| Abstract: | This paper presents stylized facts on urban housing development and neighborhood change using parcel level registry data from the Netherlands between 2013-2020. We propose a methodology to detect and subsequently classify development clusters over space and time. Using this approach, we are able to provide a number of novel insights on urban housing development. First, we find that urban housing supply mostly results in densification of urban areas. This is the result of both infill development and the redevelopment of residential and non-residential areas in higher densities. Second, urban housing development is highly heterogeneous and different types of development occur in distinctly different neighborhoods. We find, for example, that housing development in neighborhoods with a lower socio-economic status almost exclusively consists of development as part of urban renewal schemes. Finally, we also find that urban housing development is highly concentrated, with 20% of the largest development clusters supplying roughly 80% of new urban housing units. |
| Keywords: | (Re)development; Clustering; Housing Supply; Neighborhoods |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_193&r=ure |
| By: | Thomas Vogl |
| Abstract: | The spread of coworking spaces has increased over the last decade with the rise of freelancers, itinerant workers, and commuters. This activity, which is strongly driven by a spirit of sociability, independence, shared values, and synergy, tends more and more to break away from the typical working districts of the city, becoming satellite stations that record a significant growth in mid-sized and small town areas.The objective of this study was to identify coworking spaces (CSs) in peripheral areas of Germany and find determinants of their real estate markets. Based on desk research, we constructed our own database of 1202 CS. In order to identify peripheral areas in Germany we considered the data from a urban hierarchy and real estate perspective. Further, we collected relevant real estate market data by a desk research for the identified regions.The second-highest number of CSs were found to operate in office market peripheries. This should be explained by a search for lower office rents, which are sought out by CSs. Most CSs in peripheral areas of Germany were only recently established in tourist-oriented regions in the south and north of Germany. |
| Keywords: | Coworking; Peripheral areas; Real Estate Market |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_143&r=ure |
| By: | Paloma Taltavull de La Paz; Raúl Pérez; Francisco Juarez; Zhenyu Su |
| Abstract: | The paper builds the cycles of transactions and prices in the short term rental market from 2015 to 2021 for 46 European and Asian cities to understand how short-term tenants move across the cities. Having the cycles at the city level, the paper builds a panel and estimates a supply-demand model for the short-term rental market and analyses the endogenous relationship and ripple effect among cities using the VECM framework. Results suggest the existence of links between cities, both in short-term rental contracts and prices, supporting the hypothesis that short-term rental market visitors choose cities clustered in networks and that those networks compete with each other as alternative destinations. The evidence suggests that, through the technological platforms and individually, a particular city network is chosen as an alternative to others, revealing tastes changes and inducing segmentation in rental price growth and investment. |
| Keywords: | Cities; population mobility; rental prices, ; short term rental market |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_134&r=ure |
| By: | Anna Choi; Pureum Kim; Abraham Park |
| Abstract: | Causal studies on the effect of air quality on house prices, specifically focusing on a large metropolitan area, are rare and difficult to obtain because of potential endogeneity from residential sorting. In this study, we use the Aliso Canyon gas leak as a natural experiment to examine the effect of air quality on housing prices of Los Angeles City. Using a spatial difference-in-differences model, we estimate that houses within the 5-mile radius of the gas well experienced a 3% discount in price during the leak, and an additional 4.4% discount after the well was sealed and the air quality was restored. The decrease in price lasted beyond 18 months, with houses closer to the leak suffering higher discounts. We conclude that air quality degradation has a direct and longer term negative impact on house prices. |
| Keywords: | Air Quality; gas leak; Housing Price |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_71&r=ure |
| By: | Pierre Vidal |
| Abstract: | In the absence of any empirical estimation, standard theoretical models of the housing market follow the framework developed for the job market that assume a Cobb-Douglas form with constant returns to scale for the matching function. The present study aims to fill the gap and provides a first estimate of a matching function for the housing market. To that end, we assemble a unique dataset, through Internet traffic analysis, with measurements of the numbers of home buyers and home sellers active in the forty-four largest urban areas in France, from October 2013 to June 2017. We confirm that a Cobb-Douglas form fits the data well. However, our results indicate decreasing rather than constant returns to scale. Two extensions of the baseline model random matching are explored. The first accounts for the intensity of the buyers’ search, the second, for some characteristics of the market participants. Both bring evidence that these elements matter in the way buyers and sellers meet and transact and that the matching on the housing market is not purely random. |
| Keywords: | Internet data; Matching function; Matching market |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_173&r=ure |
| By: | Carlos Cañizares Martínez (Department of Economic and Monetary Analysis, National Bank of Slovakia, Slovakia; Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to empirically identify the state of the US housing market and to set state-dependent policy rules to smooth the housing cycle. I do so by estimating a three states Markov-switching model of housing prices in which mortgage debt is the state-dependent variable. As a result, the housing market state might be classified as being in housing booms fueled by credit, normal or implosion times. Second, I propose a state-contingent policy rule fed with the probabilities of being in each state. I apply such rule to set a housing counter-cyclical capital buffer (SCCyB) and a time-varying home mortgage interest deduction rule. Finally, I show that such rules have forecasting ability to predict the charge-off rates on real estate residential loans. The significance of this study is that it informs policymakers about the state of the housing market mechanically while it also provides a simple rule that allows the implementation of state-contingent macroprudential policy. Further, the structure of such rule is general enough to be applied to other policy tools. |
| Keywords: | Housing prices, non-linear modeling, Markov switching model, housing demand, household debt, macroprudential policy |
| JEL: | C22 C24 G51 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rim:rimwps:23-04&r=ure |
| By: | Alexis Pourcelot; Alain Coen |
| Abstract: | The goal of this paper is to show whether the Greater Paris housing market is integrated and can be defined globally or whether housing submarkets are present. Therefore, our aim is to understand whether macroeconomic shocks are homogeneous across the metropolis and to check for the presence of ripple effects. For this purpose, we implement a panelvector autoregressive model at the metropolis and submarket levels to capture, through impulse response functions, the consequences of macroeconomic shocks on housing prices. In a second step, we perform a spatial panel-vector autoregressive model to test for the presence of ripple effects and to check for robustness. We find the presence of housing submarkets and hence heterogeneous reactions of house prices to macroeconomic shocks across submarkets. Finally, we notice the presence of ripple effects in some submarkets. |
| Keywords: | House Prices; ripple effects; Spatial dependencies; SpVAR |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_104&r=ure |
| By: | Xun Bian; Erik Devos; Zifeng Feng |
| Abstract: | We investigate the relation between commercial real estate (CRE) returns and regional innovativeness and find that regions with more innovation exhibit higher total returns on commercial property. And, when we investigate the extent to which income return and capital return on commercial properties are related to local innovativeness, we report a positive relation between innovativeness and income return but little to no association between innovativeness and capital return. Our paper also provides some initial evidence, suggesting that local innovativeness is related to better future CRE performance. Overall, this paper suggests that innovativeness of a region is economically and statistically positively related to CRE returns, adding to a budding literature investigating CRE returns, as well as a large literature researching innovation. |
| Keywords: | commercial real estate; Innovation; Returns |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_39&r=ure |
| By: | Marina Mileo Gorzig; Deborah Rho |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of a policy that restricted the use of background checks, eviction history, income minimums, and credit history in rental housing applications in Minneapolis. |
| Keywords: | discrimination, race, ethnicity, immigration, housing, Refugees |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:328ebf2da2ac47578c475f5717953dda&r=ure |
| By: | Jaroslaw Morawski; Anetta Proskurovska |
| Abstract: | The introduction of blockchain-based solutions to the real estate transaction process has received significant attention in the recent years. However, there is still little clarity as to what the impact of such step might be on the dynamics of the real estate market. We build an agent-based model calibrated on the Swedish market and use it in a simulation analysis to study how redesigning of the house sale process with blockchain can affect housing price dynamics. First, the model looks at the traditional transaction setup using the sequence of interactions between parties as is typical in Sweden today. In the second step, we simulate a streamlined transactional workflow orchestrated by a hypothetical blockchain smart contract and compare its outcome with that of the traditional process. Our main goal is to investigate whether streamlining housing transactions via permissioned blockchain application exacerbates market volatility and generates flash crashes. At this point, the analysis is still ongoing and the results are outstanding. |
| Keywords: | blockchain; housing market; Simulation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_187&r=ure |
| By: | Muhammed Oguzhan Mete; Tahsin Yomralioglu |
| Abstract: | Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Machine Learning methods are widely used in mass real estate valuation practices. Focusing on the physical attributes of properties, locational criteria are insufficiently used during the price prediction process. Whereas, locational criteria like proximity to important places, sea or forest views, flat topography are some of the spatial factors that extremely affect the real estate value. In this study, a hybrid approach is developed by integrating GIS and Machine Learning for automated mass valuation of residential properties in Turkey and the United Kingdom. GIS-based Nominal Valuation Method was applied to produce a land value map by carrying out proximity, terrain, and visibility analyses. Besides, ensemble regression methods like XGBoost, CatBoost, LightGBM, and Random Forest are built for price prediction. Spatial criteria scores obtained from GIS analyses were included in the price prediction data for feature enrichment purpose. Results showed that adding locational factors to the real estate price data increased the prediction accuracy dramatically. It also demonstrated that Random Forest was the most successful regression model compared to other ensemble methods. |
| Keywords: | GIS; Machine Learning; Mass Valuation; Real Estate Valuation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_177&r=ure |
| By: | Gianluca Mattarocci; Gibilaro Lucia |
| Abstract: | Brownfield redevelopment projects are frequently perceived as riskier with respect to greenfield investment and the financing opportunities may be more limited and more expensive. Different financial aid projects have been developed for supporting regeneration projects and empirical evidence had shown that all the buildings near the intervention area will benefit from a price increase once the brownfield project is complete.The paper considers the Connecticut market and the evaluates the characteristics of the brownfield projects that had access to a financial aid program (loan or grant) and the impact of the regeneration process on the liquidity of the housing market and the gap between the price and the appraisal value of the residential unit. Results show that the financial aid determines a lower concentration because of a wider urban area that will be available to satisfy housing demand and the average price increases in the surrounding area and it will be more consistent with appraisal valuation. |
| Keywords: | Brownfield; housing market; Regeneration project; Spillover effect |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_14&r=ure |
| By: | Rainald Borck; Philipp Schrauth |
| Abstract: | We use worldwide satellite data to analyse how population size and density affect urban pollution. We find that density significantly increases pollution exposure. Looking only at urban areas, we find that population size affects exposure more than density. Moreover, the effect is driven mostly by population commuting to core cities rather than the core city population itself. We analyse heterogeneity by geography and income levels. By and large, the influence of population on pollution is greatest in Asia and middle-income countries. A counterfactual simulation shows that PM2.5 exposure would fall by up to 36% and NO2 exposure up to 53% if within countries population size were equalized across all cities. |
| Keywords: | Population density, air pollution, gridded data |
| JEL: | Q53 R12 |
| Date: | 2022–12–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0008&r=ure |
| By: | Illing, Hannah (University of Bonn) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the labor market effects of out- and in-migration in the context of cross-border commuting. It investigates an EU policy reform that granted Czech citizens full access to the German labor market, resulting in a Czech commuter outflow across the border to Germany. Exploiting the fact that the reform specifically impacted the Czech and German border regions, I use a matched difference-in-differences design to estimate its effects on local labor markets in both countries. Using a novel dataset on Czech regions, I show that municipalities in the Czech border region experienced a decrease in unemployment rates due to the worker outflow, and a corresponding increase in vacancies. For German border municipalities, I find evidence for slower employment growth (long-term) and slower wage growth (short-term), but no displacement effects for incumbent native workers. |
| Keywords: | out-migration, in-migration, local labor markets |
| JEL: | J61 J15 R23 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15930&r=ure |
| By: | Johari H.N. Amar; Tanja Tyvimaa |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of beneficial externality generated by the World Heritage List (WHL) on residential property values in order to offer new insights into heritage discourses. The study uses the hedonic price model to estimate empirically the difference in prices for residential properties located in the Old Rauma World Heritage. The study uses residential sales transaction data from the City of Rauma from January 2005 to September 2012 drawn from an online database called KVKL Hintaseurantapalvelu managed by the Central Federation of Finnish Real Estate Agencies. The research results indicate a positive, but insignificant, relationship between the property sale prices (Euros/sqm) and heritage designation. However, the total sale prices are higher in Old Rauma as the residential properties are significantly larger in Old Rauma compared to other properties in Rauma. |
| Keywords: | Property Values; Residential Property; UNESCO; world heritage designation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_21&r=ure |
| By: | Y. Bekkouche; Kenneth Houngbedji (DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Oswald Koussihouede |
| Abstract: | We combined information on daily rainfall at school locations and standardized test scores to study how learning outcomes at primary schools are affected by precipitation during school days in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our results suggest that student test scores are lower in schools that are exposed to more rainy days during the academic year. Students in locations that had more rainy school days are also more likely to experience grade repetition. We tested the mechanisms through which rainfall affects learning outcomes in our study area and found that teachers are more likely to be absent in locations with more rainy school days. We discuss the implications of these results and draw attention to policy options to mitigate learning loss during rainy school days. |
| Keywords: | Education, Children, Climate, I21, Q54 |
| Date: | 2023–01–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03962882&r=ure |
| By: | Arnab Bhattacharjee; Ornella Maietta; Fernanda Mazzotta |
| Abstract: | Innovativeness of a firm improves not only its own survival chances but can also generate externalities on its neighboring firms. We empirically examine the role of agglomeration economies in how innovativeness affects firm survival in Southern Italy, using spatial weights to model spillovers. Spatial Durbin probit model estimates confirm that innovation is a determinant of firm survival not only for firms that are themselves innovative but also ones located close to other innovative firms. Definition of spatial scale and weight plays an important role. Spillover benefits are enhanced by agglomeration economies, but only at a very local scale. |
| Keywords: | Firm survival, Spatial models, Innovation, Spillovers, Southern Italian SMEs |
| JEL: | L20 O3 D22 C21 C41 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsr:niesrd:546&r=ure |
| By: | Kwan Ok Lee |
| Abstract: | We analyze the impact of newly developed malls on the shopping trip behavior of nearby residents. Using the difference-in-differences approach and big data from a major taxi company in Singapore, we find that households residing within 800 meters from the new mall are significantly less likely to take taxis to other shopping destinations after the mall opening. This travel behavior change encompasses both intensive (share of the number of shopping trips out of total taxi trips originated from each residential building) and extensive (share of shopping trip distance out of total taxi trip distance) margin responses. We further demonstrate that the magnitude of this shopping trip reduction is more significant during PM peak hours and for residential buildings that are located farther from the Central Business District and in less self-sufficient communities. Our research provides suggestive evidence on the significant role of neighborhood retail amenities to the change in mode and destination choices for shopping. An important policy implication is that improving self-sufficiency for suburban neighborhoods could not only enhance the wellbeing of their residents but also increase aggregate welfare by reducing the level of congestion. |
| Keywords: | congestion; neighborhood mall; retail amenity; shopping trip |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_133&r=ure |
| By: | Acton, Riley (Miami University); Orr, Cody (U.S. Census Bureau); Rogers, Salem (Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of increased school spending in rural American school districts by leveraging the introduction and subsequent expansion of Wisconsin's Sparsity Aid Program. We find that the program, which provides additional state funding to small and isolated school districts, increased spending in eligible districts by 2% annually and that districts primarily allocated funds to areas with low baseline budget shares. This increased spending has little effect on standardized test scores, but modestly increases college enrollment and completion for students with a low likelihood of attending or completing college. |
| Keywords: | school finance, educational attainment, rural schools |
| JEL: | H75 I21 I22 R51 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15915&r=ure |
| By: | Stanimira Milcheva; Lingshan Xie |
| Abstract: | We explore investor expectations about the effects of work from home (WFH) for the commercial real estate sector. We assess how differences in WFH exposure of listed real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the largest European economies – Germany, France and the UK – during the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic affect their abnormal returns. We measure WFH exposure as REIT’s exposure to the office sector, central business districts (CBDs) and WFH tenants. To capture tenant’s strong commitment to working from home in the future, we construct a variable for tenant WFH intensity using tenant WFH announcements between March and June 2020. We show that REITs with higher WFH exposure have significantly negative abnormal returns independently of their domicile, sector specialization or CBD exposure. Equity investors look at REIT portfolio composition and WFH announcements by tenants to assess the likelihood of WFH in the long term and the associated drop in office demand. |
| Keywords: | commercial real estate; Real Estate Investment Trusts; Stock returns; Work from Home |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_129&r=ure |
| By: | Patrick McAllister; Peter Wyatt; Edward Shepherd |
| Abstract: | Focussing on the firm level, this paper investigates the importance of specialist land promoters in the strategic housing land market in the UK. Planning data for the period 2018-19 were collected and analysed to estimate the proportion of large housing sites where outline consent was granted to specialist land promoters. The paper makes three contributions. Firstly, it maps the diversity of organisations that promote land through the UK planning system and demonstrates the diversity and definitional fuzziness of the organisations operating in the contemporary UK land market. Secondly, in contrast to prior studies which have grouped specialist land promoters with other types of market actor, it was found that specialist land promoters made a relatively small contribution to the supply of housing land in the study period. Finally, the paper shows that housebuilders accounted for a minority of planning consents for residential development, thereby suggesting that the degree of vertical integration in the land and housing development sector in the UK may be lower than presumed. |
| Keywords: | housing; Land; Promotion |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_253&r=ure |
| By: | Anthony Krakah (Ghana Statistical Service); Gonzague Vannoorenberghe (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)) |
| Abstract: | We analyze how the spatial concentration of economic activity affects innovation among firms in Ghana. We use the 2014 census of all establishments to map economic activity at a precise geographic level and the responses to a detailed survey of more than 5000 firms to capture measures of innovation and firm-level characteristics. We find a strong positive effect of the overall density of economic activity on innovation (urbanization economies) but a negative effect of the density of employment in an establishment’s sector (localization economies). Several questions in the survey allow us to address the issue of endogeneity and shed some light on the mechanisms. We control for many firm characteristics and confirm our results on a subsample of establishments declaring that their location is that of their founder’s origin, i.e. firms with a plausibly exogenous geographic location. We find that firms in regions with denser economic activity report less problems to access funding and knowledge, while the presence of firms in the same sector is associated with more uncertainty about the gains from innovating. |
| Keywords: | innovation, development, localization, urbanization, externalities, Ghana |
| JEL: | R10 R11 R12 O14 O18 |
| Date: | 2023–02–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2023005&r=ure |
| By: | Flynn, Justin A.; Circella, Giovanni; Venkataram, Prashanth S. |
| Abstract: | People with disabilities often encounter more and different problems with transportation compared to their socioeconomic peers without disabilities, but their desires for transportation mode choices, usage frequencies, activity frequencies, and neighborhood features have been poorly understood. The authors have begun to rectify those deficiencies with this study, developed in close cooperation with disability advocacy organizations (DAOs). The authors conducted a focus group in 2021 November involving 20 adults with various disabilities across California, including rural, suburban, and urban parts of the major coastal metropolitan areas as well as areas in the interior of the state. Focus group participants’ comments evinced a broad theme of problems for people with disabilities arising from car-oriented land use patterns, as they asked for more street lighting, seating, and shade, more frequent public transit service with more geographic coverage, and similar support for infrequent yet critical longer-distance trips. Based on focus group participants’ suggestions and pre-testing as well as feedback from DAOs, the authors developed a survey of adults across California to capture how disability affects the choices and desires that people make for transportation mode frequencies, activity frequencies, and neighborhood features. The survey collected nearly 2, 000 cleaned responses, reflecting the diversity in disability, geography, and socioeconomic conditions in California. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Disability, transportation, focus group, survey, mix |
| Date: | 2023–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0340w08s&r=ure |
| By: | Akimova V.V. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Mikhaylov A.A. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Semyonova R.I. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration); Zemtsov S.P. (The Russian Presidential Academy Of National Economy And Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Economic activity is distributed unevenly, following human resettlement, so that high-concentration zones (large cities urban agglomerations) are combined with uninhabited lands. The relevance of the work is due to the close attention of the scientific community and governments to regional development. Scientific novelty is associated with the generalization of the factors of regional development. The objective of the work was to analyze the key theoretical approaches and empirical studies of the regional development factors. The text describes the main models of regional growth, analyzes the role of basic determinants, with a separate chapter devoted to entrepreneurial capital. In the course of the work, the following findings and conclusions were obtained: studies of regional development are widely covered in the literature, with several dozen regional development theories currently distinguished; each theory characterizes various aspects of this process. The determinants of regional development can be subdivided into factors of the first nature (those of natural origin) and the second nature (those of anthropogenic origin). The prospects and further areas of the study include an econometric assessment of the regional development factors in Russia (such as human capital, institutional conditions, technological development, etc.) and identification of new factors (embeddedness of entrepreneurship, influence of digital technologies, etc.). The paper is based on the materials of research work carried out in accordance with the RANEPA State Assignment for 2021. |
| Keywords: | regional development, regional growth, economic development, spatial policy, entrepreneurship |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w2022046&r=ure |
| By: | Bruhn, Simon; Grebel, Thomas |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that regional variation in the efficiency of labor allocation among German manufacturing plants plays a critical role in explaining regional disparities in productivity. In fact, we show that over 50% of the East-West productivity gap is associated with a less efficient labor allocation in former East Germany. Yet, we also demonstrate that the mere focus on East-West comparisons hides partially large differences between the German federal states. These results suggest that regional productivity differences could be substantially narrowed by a more efficient labor allocation among plants. With respect to the underlying causes, we find evidence that the regional differences in allocative efficiency are significantly correlated with differences in export intensity, market concentration and plant size. |
| Keywords: | Regional productivity gap, productivity decomposition, allocative efficiency, labor allocation |
| JEL: | E24 J24 L11 L25 O47 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tuiedp:172&r=ure |
| By: | Ben Lockwood; Martin Simmler; Eddy H.F. Tam; Benjamin Lockwood |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of commercial property taxation on vacancy rates and rents in the UK, using a new data-set, and exploiting exogenous variations in property tax rates from reliefs in the UK system: small business rate relief (SBRR), retail relief and empty property relief. We estimate that the retail relief reduces vacancies by 85%, and SBRR relief by up to 49%, while empty property exemption increases them by up to 89%. The effect of retail relief on clusters of urban properties (the “High St”) is no different to its overall effect. SBRR increases (decreases) the likelihood that a property is occupied by a small (large) business. We also use data on asking prices for rental properties to study the effect of reliefs on rental rates. Rental rates move in the opposite direction to vacancy rates, except in the case of empty property relief. All these findings are consistent with a novel model of directed search in the commercial property market, also presented in the paper. |
| Keywords: | commercial property, vacancy, occupancy, property taxation |
| JEL: | H25 H32 R30 R38 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10252&r=ure |
| By: | Wing Sin Lau |
| Abstract: | The paper explores the relationship between ESG factors and the rental income and property value with a zoom in the study of cloud based smart locker operators. The key sustainability attributes researched in the paper cover tenant’s expectations and property value in relationship to ESG factors. Given the increasing popularity of cloud based smart locker operator in partnership with building owner and manager to provide alternatives to last mile logistic delivery to minimize cost and carbon emissions. E-commerce is significantly growing with no sign of slowing down hence cloud-based technology smart locker offered 24/7 contactless pick up and real time parcel status update with the benefit to reduce carbon emissions materially per parcel unit. Sensitivity of rental income and property value to the captioned sustainability factors associated to the Sustainability Development Goals (SDGs) highlighted by high transparent real estate markets in Hong Kong is being studied. The author aims to provide insights in how smart locker operators managed to develop last mile delivery solution for e commerce logistics supported by technology and create win-win with property owner as real estate investors and lenders putting more emphasis of ESG factors in financing decisions. |
| Keywords: | ESG Factors; Property Value; Rental Income; Smart locker operators |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_36&r=ure |
| By: | Carozzi, Felipe; Roth, Sefi |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of urban density on the exposure of city dwellers to air pollution using data from the United States urban system. Exploiting geological features to instrument for density, we find an economically and statistically significant pollution-density elasticity of 0.14. We assess the health implications of these estimates and find that increased density in an average city leads to sizeable mortality costs. Our findings highlight the possible trade-off between reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, which is associated with denser cities according to prior empirical research, and preserving local air quality and human health within cities. |
| Keywords: | air pollutiuon; cities; density; health; UK Cities’ seed fund |
| JEL: | Q53 R11 |
| Date: | 2023–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:117385&r=ure |
| By: | Flynn, Justin A.; Circella, Giovanni; Venkataram, Prashanth S. |
| Abstract: | People with disabilities travel less than their peers without disabilities. Much research about the travel patterns of people with disabilities focuses on problems they experience with specific transportation modes, under the assumption that fixing those specific problems is enough to fully include people with disabilities in the broader world. This doesn’t account for the connections of different transportation modes to land use patterns, and it presumes what people with disabilities want without asking them. This project aims to understand the extent to which disability may affect the choices and desires that people have for transportation mode usage frequencies, activity frequencies, and neighborhood features. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Disability, transportation, focus group, survey, mix |
| Date: | 2023–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt149741f5&r=ure |
| By: | Katarzyna Kania; Joanna Wegrzyn |
| Abstract: | In the face of ongoing climate change, increasing importance is being attached to the implementation of sustainable development principles. The construction sector has been identified as one of the key sectors in terms of its potential contribution to achieving environmental goals.In Poland, the number of residential buildings with environmental certificates (BREEAM, LEED) is small, and particular technological solutions are more often the part of activities referred to as "greenwashing". The market situation in Poland makes it unnecessary for developers to strive for customers who care about the characteristics of green properties, because there is no external pressure on market development in such terms. Therefore, developers do not mobilize to scope out the needs of potential customers for sustainable housing. The aim of the research is to check the level of awareness among potential apartment buyers. The research is a part of a larger project that aims to identify the importance of sustainability in housing among stakeholders such as residents, developers, managers and local authorities. |
| Keywords: | housing preferences; housing stakeholders; real estate; Sustainable Housing |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_189&r=ure |
| By: | Ramon Sotelo |
| Abstract: | After II World War a subsidy system called 1. Förderweg was implemented in West-Germany to cope with the challenges of housing shortage after and due to the war. In the late 80ties of the last century this policy was left behind. During the first decade of this century public housing policy was based on the conception `Germany is built´and therefore there is no need to build new dwellings. After the GFC and the forthcoming European development, heavy capital inflows, low interest rates, and advantages within the common currency Germany experienced a relatively strong growth and with rather inflexible rents in the housing stock a felt shortage of affordable housing. Although migration is the dominant political topic, housing policy is becoming important, again. This paper based on a report for the Bundesverband der Deuschen Wohnungs- und Immobilienunternehmen (GdW) identifies possibilities of effective housing policy by separating the three main instruments of housing policy, the subsidy of the demand, the purchase of rights for housing, and the subsidy of the supply. |
| Keywords: | Affordable Housing; Housing Policy; Rent Control |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_251&r=ure |
| By: | Xuwen Gao; Wenquan Liang; Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak; Ran Song |
| Abstract: | About 11% of the Chinese population are rural-urban migrants with a rural hukou that severely restricts their children's access to urban schools. As a result, 69 million children are left behind in rural areas. We use two regression-discontinuity designs - based on school enrollment age cutoffs and a 2014 policy change that more severely restricted migrants' access to schooling - to document that migrants become discontinuously more likely to leave middle-school-aged daughters (but not sons) behind in poor rural areas without either parent present exactly when schooling becomes expensive and restricted. The effect is larger when the daughter has a male sibling. Migrant parents send significantly less remittances back to daughters than sons. Although China's hukou mobility restrictions are not gender-specific in intent, they have larger adverse effects on girls. Rural residents adjacent to cities that experience shocks to labor demand after China's accession to the WTO are more likely to separate from children to take advantage of new opportunities in cities. Those workers earn much more and advance economically, but longitudinal data reveals that their children complete fewer years of schooling, remain poor, and have worse mental and physical health later in life. |
| JEL: | J13 J16 R23 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30990&r=ure |
| By: | Julius Range |
| Abstract: | Examining German residential construction activity using quarterly flows of building permits, this study investigates the linkage between politics and housing supply. Applying separate dynamic time series regression models for commercial property developers and owner-occupiers proves the heterogeneity of decision-making concerning considered external factors. The approach finds quarterly flows of building permits for residential property developments to be negative correlated with significant changes in election polls triggered by exogenous shocks. Owner-occupier building activity is found to be positive associated with household’s savings rate appearing to increase during times of crises. Slumps in construction activity are further identified during COVID-19 lockdown periods. The study results prove the impact of political surrounding factors on decision making processes related to residential construction contributing to the comprehensibility of German construction activity. |
| Keywords: | political uncertainty; residential construction |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_248&r=ure |
| By: | Darlington Agbonifi (Department of Economics, University of Verona); Daniele Cufari (Department of Economics, University of Verona); Riccardo Magnani; Francesco Pecci; Federico Perali (Department of Economics, University of Verona); Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo |
| Abstract: | This study estimates the socio-economic impact of investments related to the Institutional Development Contract (CIS) for the city of Taranto on different categories of households, labor markets (skilled and unskilled), and enterprises in Italy by developing a multi-regional SAM (MR-SAM) model with inter-regional trade. The model is designed and implemented both at the level of Apulia region, to estimate the intraregional impact, and at the national level, to estimate the interregional spillover effects and the supply chain linkages. The study finds that the interregional effects are more than one half of the intraregional ones, with more than 26 percent of the interregional impact accruing to the Lombardy region and about 60 percent captured by the regions in the North of Italy. The model also shows that while the local Taranto economy is highly connected with the rest of the Apulia region, it has only weak linkages with the regions of Southern Italy. The ratio between the impact on added value at the national level and the total investment of the CIS is slightly more than 2. The study also suggests that impact analyses considering the area on which the public investment is developed as an island unconnected to the entire economic system may be misleading, because they provide no information about the propagation of the effects outside the administrative limits of the local economy, even though these effects may be crucial to fuel a desirable regional distribution of economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Interregional trade, multi-regional input-output (MR-SAM) analysis, PNRR, Taranto (Apulia, Italy) |
| JEL: | C67 D57 F14 Q56 Q58 R15 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:awm:wpaper:15&r=ure |
| By: | Michael Dalton; Matthew Dey; Mark Loewenstein |
| Abstract: | https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers /2022/ec220080.htm |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bls:wpaper:553&r=ure |
| By: | Marcelo Cajias; Anett Wins |
| Abstract: | Whilst there is a broad consensus that energy efficiency as measured by the environmental performance certificates leads to higher asking rents, there is little evidence about investment strategies that consider energy efficiency as an optimisation factor. This paper focusses on identifying the conditions that lead to the highest increase in the willingness to pay for energy-conscious refurbishment. By making use of more than 1.5 m observations in Germany and the UK we disaggregate the expected willingness to pay to spatial, socioeconomic, and hedonic characteristics via Generalized Additive Models (GAMs). In a simulation study, we show that an investment strategy in residential real estate can be optimised via intelligent asset selection considering energy efficiency as an optimisation factor. |
| Keywords: | Energy Performance Certificate; housing; Machine Learning; Non linear effects |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_88&r=ure |
| By: | Pauline Rossi (CREST, Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France); Yun Xiao (University of Gothenburg, Göteborg, Sweden) |
| Abstract: | This article uses China’s family planning policies to quantify and explain spillovers in fertility decisions. We test whether ethnic minorities decreased their fertility in response to the policies, although only the majority ethnic group, the Han Chinese, were subject to birth quotas. We exploit the policy rollout and variation in pre-policy age-specific fertility levels to construct a measure of the negative shock to Han fertility. Combining this measure with variation in the local share of Han, we estimate that a woman gives birth to 0.63 fewer children if the average completed fertility among her peers is exogenously reduced by one child. The fertility response of minorities is driven by cultural proximity with the Han and by higher educational investments, suggesting that spillovers operate through both social and economic channels. These results provide evidence that social multipliers can accelerate fertility transitions. |
| Keywords: | Fertility, Family planning, China, Spillovers, Peer Effects, Partial population experiment. |
| JEL: | C36 D1 J11 J13 O15 O53 |
| Date: | 2022–10–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crs:wpaper:2023-05&r=ure |
| By: | Remo Nitschke; Felix Roesel |
| Abstract: | Why do public policies change little over time in individual places, sometimes for centuries? We investigate different mechanisms for policy persistence. Several city mayors serving in democratic Weimar Germany were expelled by the Nazis in 1933, but re-installed by the Allies after World War II. We find that pre-Nazi patterns in public debt re-appear in cities with a re-installed mayor, albeit all city debt defaulted after the war. We do not find such correlations in a matched sample of cities where the Weimar mayor did not return to office. Historical public debt does also not predict debt today in East Germany and in former German cities in present-day Poland—places where political elites or most of the population changed. We conclude that elite persistence dominates place-based features such as geography or population preferences in explaining persistent policies. |
| Keywords: | elite persistence, public debt, fiscal policy, Weimar Germany |
| JEL: | H63 H74 N44 N94 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10251&r=ure |
| By: | Alban Moura (Banque centrale du Luxembourg, Département Economie et Recherche); Olivier Pierrard (Banque centrale du Luxembourg, Département Economie et Recherche) |
| Abstract: | Not so well. We reach this conclusion by evaluating the empirical performance of a benchmark DSGE model with real estate and collateral constraints. We estimate the model from U.S. data using Bayesian methods and assess its fit along various dimensions. We find that the model is strongly rejected when tested against unrestricted Bayesian VARs and cannot replicate the persistence of real estate prices and various comovements between aggregate demand, real estate prices, and debt. Performance does not improve with alternative definitions of real estate prices, estimation samples, or detrending approaches. Our results raise doubts about the ability of current DSGE models with real estate and collateral constraints to deliver credible policy insights and identify the dimensions in need of improvement. |
| Keywords: | real estate; housing; DSGE models; collateral constraints; model evaluation |
| JEL: | C52 E32 E44 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2023007&r=ure |
| By: | Georgia Warren-Myers |
| Abstract: | Anticipated climate change impacts on the real estate sector has the potential for devastating value implications, in both the short and long term. Businesses, organisations, governments, and real estate owners and occupiers are currently tackling a changing policy environment relating to emissions reporting. In addition, a greater understanding of a range of climate change risks and the exposure of assets to a raft of risks is seeing an altering in assessment and action to future proof their businesses and assets. Valuers, in their pivotal role of evaluating real estate markets and assessing market values will need to consider how this changing environment, shifting understanding of traditional risk considerations and how policy and climate and transitional risks are incorporated into valuation practice. This paper presents current valuation practice challenges identified in valuing real estate and consideration of sustainability, emissions and climate change risks. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change; Risks; sustainability; Valuation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_47&r=ure |
| By: | Dimitrios Papastamos; Dimitris Karlis; Angelos Kekempanos; Antonios Alexandridis |
| Abstract: | Automatic valuation systems have found several applications in real estate market. It is common to build such systems on historical data aiming at predicting new properties in a comprehensive manner. In recent days it is common that the data are collected not based on valuations but from other sources and, hence, they can be incomplete. The paper aims at examining the effect of such incomplete data in the prediction accuracy. We apply a nearest neighbor imputation technique to see how the proportion of missing information can affect the results but also to reveal for separate variables their impact and importance in the derivations. We make use of a real valuation data set from a Greek financial institution, and we see how much the proportion of missingness impacts the results but also that there are variables that when missing it is very difficult to impute them. |
| Keywords: | error; imputation; Prediction |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_211&r=ure |
| By: | Martin Schnauss; Müller Katja; Patrick Spieler |
| Abstract: | There are numerous historic and monumental properties scattered all over the nooks and crannies of Nigerian Cities which are in ruins due to poor management and neglect. Despite the facts that historic buildings play vital roles as places of tourism and recreation thus enhancing economic development and growth of many countries yet many of such sites in Nigeria are poorly managed. The study which is exploratory in nature seeks to discover why such properties are not properly managed and what can be done to sustain such properties so that they do not go into extinction. The study adopts a survey approach and makes use of online surveys to reach out to Property Managers on the role they play in the management of such properties, barriers to effective management and likely solutions for sustainable management of such properties. |
| Keywords: | Cybernetic Systems; Hospital Complexes; Portfolio Management; System Dynamics |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_110&r=ure |
| By: | Peter Parlasca FRICS |
| Abstract: | The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) affected all European countries. House prices were affected later and with some exceptions in European Countries. It could be illuminating to compare this downturn with the latest Corona crisis.How developed the housing markets in the European countries during the Corona crisis and the follwing recovery compared to the periods after the GFC? First results of the analysis underline that on one hand market activity (turnover) declined during the pandamic. However, prices went up all over Europe.Comparing the developments since 2008 it is worth mentioning that GDP recovery after the GFC allowed nearly in all countries passing the pre-crisis level before the Corona crisis hit again the European economies in 2020.In contrast to the economic developments, housing markets in various European countries did not reach the pre-crisis level until 2019 and sometimes not until 2021 either although the upswing of the housing markets started in Europe around 2014. In a small number of European countries prices doubled between 2008 and 2021. |
| Keywords: | Corona crisis; economic development during crises; housing market activity (turnover); Housing Prices |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_95&r=ure |
| By: | Marcelo Delajara (Anker Research Institute); Rocío Espinosa (Anker Research Institute); Lorenzo León (Anker Research Institute); Jesús David Aban Tomayo (Anker Research Institute); Martha Anker (Anker Research Institute); Richard Anker (Anker Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | This report estimates a living income and living wage for rural areas and small towns in the state of Nayarit (Mexico) for 2022 with a focus on tobacco-growing municipalities. About 48% of the population in these municipalities live in rural areas. This percentage is similar in the rest of the Nayarit municipalities (46%), with the exception of Tepic and Bahía de Banderas, where the population is mainly urban. The poverty rates in the study municipalities are in general higher than the average for Nayarit as a whole and closer to the average for Mexico. The living income and living wage were estimated using the Anker and Anker (2017) Methodology and data from both primary and secondary sources. Local food prices and housing costs were collected through a price survey in the six study municipalities in places where workers shop and live. The costs of goods and services other than food and housing were inferred from secondary data sources representative for the rural and urban areas of Nayarit. The main secondary data sources for this study are the National Income and Expenditure Survey, the National Occupation and Employment Survey, and the Population and Housing Census. The living income for a typical size reference family in the study area in 2022 was MXN 17, 535 (USD 857) per month and the living wage for full-time workers in the area was MXN 12, 410 (USD 607), which consists of a take-home pay of MXN 10, 500 (USD 513) and MXN 1, 910 (USD 93) in income and social security taxes. |
| Keywords: | living income, living wage, Anker Methodology, tobacco, Nayarit, Mexico. |
| JEL: | J30 J50 J80 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iad:glliwa:220101&r=ure |
| By: | Emir Malikov; Jingfang Zhang; Shunan Zhao; Subal C. Kumbhakar |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the long-standing interest in understanding the role of location for firm performance, this paper provides a semiparametric methodology to accommodate locational heterogeneity in production analysis. Our approach is novel in that we explicitly model spatial variation in parameters in the production-function estimation. We accomplish this by allowing both the input-elasticity and productivity parameters to be unknown functions of the firm's geographic location and estimate them via local kernel methods. This allows the production technology to vary across space, thereby accommodating neighborhood influences on firm production. In doing so, we are also able to examine the role of cross-location differences in explaining the variation in operational productivity among firms. Our model is superior to the alternative spatial production-function formulations because it (i) explicitly estimates the cross-locational variation in production functions, (ii) is readily reconcilable with the conventional production axioms and, more importantly, (iii) can be identified from the data by building on the popular proxy-variable methods, which we extend to incorporate locational heterogeneity. Using our methodology, we study China's chemicals manufacturing industry and find that differences in technology (as opposed to in idiosyncratic firm heterogeneity) are the main source of the cross-location differential in total productivity in this industry. |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2302.13430&r=ure |
| By: | Robin Lindsey; Ioannis Tikoudis; Katherine Hassett |
| Abstract: | This report takes stock of scientific findings to date regarding the distributional effects of policies discouraging car use in urban areas. These policies include cordon tolls, distance-based charges, fuel taxes, parking measures and public transport subsidies. The report describes the mechanisms responsible for the distributional effects of these policies and offers insights regarding how such policies can be designed to minimise adverse equity outcomes. It also provides recommendations regarding the design and procedural modifications that standard instruments require in order to be more acceptable to the public and to governments. Finally, it identifies a number of issues that warrant further research in the pursuit of greater equity in the outcomes of urban road transport policies. |
| Keywords: | environmental externalities, fuel tax, income distribution, inequality, road pricing |
| JEL: | D63 H23 Q52 Q54 R40 Q56 |
| Date: | 2023–03–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:211-en&r=ure |
| By: | Hang Lai; Stanimira Milcheva |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the term structure of discount rates over the very long run, using the repeat-sales housing transactions and the unique housing contract of leaseholds in England and Wales. We estimate the price discounts and price appreciation discounts for 0-300 years leaseholds maturities relative to very long-run leaseholds and deprive the implied discount rates. We apply hedonic and augmented repeat sales regression for our empirical analysis under various types of restrictions. We find the results support the declining discount rate schedule, implying the benefit of the far future should be discounted at very low rates. In addition, although the declining trend remains consistent, poor and rich region have a different reaction in terms of QE. Before QE, the difference in the average discount rate in the two regions is only 0.2%. It increases to 2.1% during QE, with households in the rich region applying a significantly low average discount rate of 1%, suggesting that monetary policy could affect households’ preference of riskiness, especially households in the rich region. |
| Keywords: | Asset Pricing; Declining Discount Rates; Hedonic Model; Repeat Sales Model |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_10&r=ure |
| By: | Stephen Lee |
| Abstract: | A safe haven is an asset that is unrelated or negatively related to other assets in highly uncertain or turmoil markets. Therefore, a safe haven asset has the ability to mitigate risk and increase returns in extreme market conditions. A hedge is an asset that is negative related to other assets, on average, but does not have safe haven features during periods of market stress. While, a diversifier is an asset that has an imperfect positive correlation with other assets, on average, and like a hedge does not offer safe haven features.While, private real estate provides diversification benefits to stocks it may also be a hedge or safe haven asset as it is a hedge against inflation and the majority of real estate returns comes from rent payable in all market cycles. Yet as far as the author is aware, no study has examined whether private real estate is a safe haven or hedger in the US. Using monthly transaction based real estate data and both OLS and quantile regression we find that private real estate is both a “weak hedge” and a “weak a safe haven” asset. In other words, private real estate is more than a diversifier. |
| Keywords: | Hedger or Safe Haven; Monthly Transaction Data; Private real estate; Quantile Regression |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_20&r=ure |
| By: | Alain Coen; Patrick Lecomte; Saadallah Zaiter |
| Abstract: | The aim of this study is to analyze the role of Chinese foreign direct investments (FDIs) in the dynamics of real estate in the Asia-Pacific region after the global financial crisis. We use a linear asset pricing model including macroeconomic risk factors and develop a metric to measure FDIs in the real estate sector. Based on panel econometrics, our robust results report that Chinese FDIs significantly influence Asia-Pacific region’s public real estate markets, shedding new light on China’s economic internationalization in the Asia and the Pacific region. We also provide strong evidence that our findings are not driven by a reverse causality phenomenon, whereby a country with superior performance of public real estate sector is in better position to attract Chinese FDIs. |
| Keywords: | Asia-Pacific region; Chinese foreign direct investments; Macroeconomic risks; REITs |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_56&r=ure |
| By: | Islam Ibrahim; Heidi Falkenbach |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the effect of corporate regional diversification on the cost of debt securities. It observes the yield spreads on debt securities issued by U.S. REITs and employs asset-level data to measure portfolio diversification levels across NCREIF regions. By utilizing a Herfindahl-Hirschman index-based measure of diversification, the results show that, on average, a one standard deviation increase in regional diversification increases the spread by nearly 8 basis points. Also, expanding to one additional NCREIF region increases the spread by nearly 4 basis points. Put differently, in our sample, being amongst the most diversified tercile could increase the spread premium by about 26 basis points, while maintaining a low level of diversification (falling in the least diversified tercile) could reduce the spread by about 12 basis points. These results are robust to controlling for credit rating and other potential confounders. The findings highlight a latent channel for the so-called corporate diversification discount. |
| Keywords: | Cost of debt; Diversification; REIT; Yield spread |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_40&r=ure |
| By: | Lelys Dinarte-Diaz; Maria Marta Ferreyra; Tatiana Melguizo; Angelica Sanchez |
| Abstract: | Short-cycle higher education programs (SCPs), lasting two or three years, capture about a quarter of higher education enrollment in the world and can play a key role enhancing workforce skills. In this paper, we estimate the program-level contribution of SCPs to student academic and labor market outcomes, and study how and why these contributions vary across programs. We exploit unique administrative data from Colombia on the universe of students, institutions, and programs to control for a rich set of student, peer, and local choice set characteristics. We find that program-level contributions account for about 60-70 percent of the variation in student-level graduation and labor market outcomes. Our estimates show that programs vary greatly in their contributions, across and especially within fields of study. Moreover, the estimated contributions are strongly correlated with program outcomes but not with other commonly used quality measures. Programs contribute more to formal employment and wages when they are longer, have been provided for a longer time, are taught by more specialized institutions, and are offered in larger cities. |
| Keywords: | short-cycle programs, value added, quality, higher education |
| JEL: | I22 I23 I26 J24 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10262&r=ure |
| By: | Louis Johner; Martin Hoesli; Jon Lekander |
| Abstract: | Pension funds aim to hold assets that match their future liabilities. We expand extant research by considering a long period encompassing various economic regimes. Using return data for four asset classes in Sweden over a 145-year period, we investigate the out-of-sample performance of portfolios optimized using several approaches and compare them with that of a naïve allocation. We then turn to analyzing the drivers of asset allocations, in particular multi-family properties, over time. The usefulness of holding residential real estate to hedge pension liabilities is assessed. Our analyses make it possible to gauge the benefits of holding residential properties in various economic environments. |
| Keywords: | Long-term; Multi-Family Properties; Pension fund; Portfolio Allocation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_232&r=ure |
| By: | Gianluca Valeri; Massimo Biasin; Emanuela Giacomini |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to try to understand if investments in the "green" lead to benefits for real estate investors and therefore if these benefits outweigh the costs. Therefore, attention was paid (i) to the classification and numerosity census of real estate (RE) investments screening for environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria based, within the ESG-framework, on their compliance score with environmental factors; (ii) to the effect that green property criteria have on the property value and expected yield considering implied risk. The survey of “green” RE investments and their performance characteristics contributes to the analysis of the role of sustainable investments in the strategic asset allocation decisions and portfolio diversification in the context of variance-minimizing investments. The analysis was carried out by comparing sustainable investments made in the EU member countries over the last decade. |
| Keywords: | environmental, social and governance (ESG); green innovation performance; impact investments; RE investment |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_202&r=ure |
| By: | Masafumi KOZUKA (Faculty of Economics, Setsunan University / Research Fellow, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University) |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koe:wpaper:2303&r=ure |
| By: | Grillitsch, Markus (CIRCLE, Lund University); Coenen, Lars (Western Norway University of Applied Sciences); Morgan, Kevin (Cardiff University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we consider if and how regional policy can be designed to foster sustainability (the wellbeing of people and planet) as well as being a catalyst for innovation and development. Focusing on the entrepreneurial discovery process, the paper explores its role and limitations in balancing directionality and subsidiarity in regional development. In its original conception, it was designed to direct regional development towards promising future opportunities building on existing strengths. We argue that while the rationale of the entrepreneurial discovery process serves innovation-driven competitiveness, it lacks sufficient sensitivity to the social and environmental dimensions of sustainability. Rather than retrofitting the missing dimensions of sustainability, the logic needs to be rethought from the basics, which we do by asking if and under which conditions the entrepreneurial discovery process directs regional development to deliver on human wellbeing and environmental impact. We argue that this depends on the nature of existing opportunities, on how development is framed and on who is engaged in the discovery process. To this end we argue that regional policy needs to i) adopt a more capacious perspective to change processes and policy agency, taking action if needed to reconfigure the opportunity space, and ii) adopt a broader perspective on discovery processes, which goes beyond the realm of entrepreneurs and business alone and integrates the lessons learned from experimentation processes in and across a variety of domains. For this to happen, it is necessary to develop the institutional capacity for a regional development strategy that is sensitive to multiple (and sometimes conflicting) societal goals. |
| Keywords: | regional innovation policy; smart specialisation; partnerships for regional innovation; sustainability transitions; discovery process; opportunity space |
| JEL: | O10 O20 O38 R10 R58 |
| Date: | 2023–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2023_001&r=ure |
| By: | Mr. Adrian Alter; Elizabeth M. Mahoney; Cristian Badarinza |
| Abstract: | During the past two decades, the commercial real estate (CRE) market has been impacted by major disruptions, including the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. Using granular data from the U.S., we document how these crises have unfolded and elaborate on the role of heterogeneity and underlying shocks. Both a set of reduced-form approaches and a structural framework suggest a prominent role for demand-side local factors in the short run, along with significant shifts in preferences during crisis episodes. However, valuations become more closely linked to macro-financial factors over the long term. A one-standard deviation tightening in financial conditions is associated with a drop of about 3% in CRE prices in the following quarter, with a stronger impact on the retail sector and milder effects in states where household indebtedness is lower. |
| Keywords: | Non-residential Real Estate; Financial Conditions; Liquidity; Big Data; level data; CRE price; household indebtedness; CRE market; CRE transaction; COVID-19; Real estate prices; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global; Middle East and Central Asia |
| Date: | 2023–01–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/015&r=ure |
| By: | Gao, Xing; Meng, Jing; Ling, Yantao; Liao, Maolin; Cao, Mengqiu |
| Abstract: | Entrepreneurship is an important determinant of innovation and growth with an uneven spatial distribution. In addition, the mechanism of entrepreneurship is affected by administrative hierarchies. However, the driving forces behind the spatial differences are not clear. Therefore, this study aims to examine the key determinants of entrepreneurship by clarifying the roles of localisation economies and intellectual property rights (IPRs) protection from 2008 to 2017 using a Bayesian analysis of multi-level spatial correlation. The empirical results indicate that localisation economies and IPRs protection have a major influence on entrepreneurship. In particular, although it is insignificant, the role of localisation economies at prefecture level is important, because the impact of supplier linkages at provincial level is negative. The effects of IPRs protection at both prefecture and provincial levels are significant in all the models, and its effect increases with the improvement in model performance. Moreover, these determinants vary across different spatial scales. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship; IPRs protection; localisation economies; multi-level models; spatial random effects; 51808392; 72173133; EP/R035148/1; chool Funding from the University of Westminster; and National Conditions Research Project of Research Institute for Eco-civilization; Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (Taicang 2022) . |
| JEL: | J1 C1 |
| Date: | 2022–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:114290&r=ure |
| By: | Oluwaseun Fajana; Chen Zheng; Masaki Mori |
| Abstract: | Rethinking the claim on the negative association between social interaction and the decision to move into homeownership from renting. A hypothetical shortcoming of related literature is that social interaction is taken as exogenous while neglecting the problem of moral hazards, arising from information asymmetry. In this paper, these shortcomings are confronted conceptually with reference to Gronevetter(1973) tie strenghth hypothesis and empirically using the self-reported panel information from a representative British household panel. The conclusions suggest that the value of social interaction for homeownership may be uncovered, where it is observed indirectly in the individual’s utility function, as an other-regarding preference rather than directly in the individuals’ deep preferences for homeowenrship. Consequences for social and housing policy are further discussed. |
| Keywords: | Decision Framing; Homeownership; Information Diffusion; Word of Mouth |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_166&r=ure |
| By: | Alves, Guillermo |
| Abstract: | One-fourth of the world’s urban population lives in slums and the number of slum residents grew from 650 million in 1990 to 1 billion in 2018. Existing explanations for slum growth focus on rural-urban migration and poverty. While these factors are relevant for rapidly urbanizing low-income countries, slum growth is frequent in highly urbanized, middle-income countries in Latin America. This paper provides evidence from Brazil that local government actions can increase slum growth without changes in poverty or immigration. Using a regression discontinuity design in close elections, I find that victories by a center-left, pro-poor party in the 2000 municipal election strongly increased the share of households living in slums in 2010 compared to 2000. I explore the mechanisms behind this result with a novel panel of census tracts and data on municipalities’ policies, expenditures, and sociodemographics. A more permissive attitude towards the formation of new slums is the main candidate to explain the observed effect. |
| Keywords: | Economía, Investigación socioeconómica, Pobreza, Vivienda, |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbl:dblwop:2006&r=ure |
| By: | Shaheen, Susan; Cohen, Adam; Broader, Jacquelyn |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt8xc1k3rw&r=ure |
| By: | Dieckelmann, Daniel; Hempell, Hannah S.; Jarmulska, Barbara; Lang, Jan Hannes; Rusnák, Marek |
| Abstract: | The acceleration of house price growth amidst falling interest rates to record-low levels across euro area countries between 2015 and 2021 has sparked renewed interest in the link between the two variables. Asset-pricing theory suggests that real house prices respond to changes in real interest rates in a non-linear fashion. This non-linearity should be especially pronounced at very low real interest rates. Most existing empirical studies estimate models with a con-stant semi-elasticity, thereby ruling out by design the potential non-linearities between house prices and interest rates. To address this issue, we estimate a panel model for the euro area countries with a constant interest rate elasticity (as opposed to a constant semi-elasticity), which is consistent with asset pricing theory. Our empirical results suggest that, in a low interest rate environment such as the period between 2015 and 2021, non-linearities in the house price response to interest rate changes are important: an increase of real interest rates from ultra-low levels could lead to downward pressure on real house prices three to eight times higher than the literature suggests. JEL Classification: E43, E52, R21, R30 |
| Keywords: | elasticity, house prices, interest rates, non-linearity |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20232789&r=ure |
| By: | Berliant, Marcus |
| Abstract: | Workers generally commute on a daily basis, so we model commuting as a repeated game. The folk theorem implies that for sufficiently large discount factors, the repeated commuting game has as a Nash equilibrium any feasible strategy that is uniformly better than the minimax strategy payoff for a commuter in the one shot game, repeated over the infinite horizon. This includes the efficient equilibria. An example where the efficient payoffs strictly dominate the one shot Nash equilibrium payoffs is provided. Our conclusions pose a challenge to congestion pricing in that equilibrium selection could be at least as effective in improving welfare. We examine evidence from St. Louis to determine what equilibrium strategies are actually played in the repeated commuting game. |
| Keywords: | Repeated game; Nash equilibrium; Commuting; Folk theorem |
| JEL: | R41 |
| Date: | 2023–02–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116529&r=ure |
| By: | Patrick Lecomte |
| Abstract: | The implementation of smart technologies in the built environment poses many new issues to the real estate sector. Among these issues is behavioural control of building occupants thanks to increasingly sophisticated smart real estate’s technological apparatus. Behavioural control in digital space (e.g., the internet) has generated passionate arguments about human dignity. Stances founded on technology or ethics foster a Manichean perspective, either by focusing on technological innovation and ignoring the negative consequences of embedding smart technology in human lives for the former, or by condemning the very use of digital technology altogether in the name of human freedom for the latter. By doing so, they tend to obscure our ability to rationally assess the impact of technology on space users in smart buildings. This paper applies an economic approach to determine the nature of control in smart real estate and proposes the blueprint for a code of digital governance in the real estate sector. Based on Lecomte (2019, 2020, 2021), it concludes by ascertaining the need for regulators to step in, for instance through tougher ad hoc privacy laws designed for the built environment. |
| Keywords: | Big data; Control; Digital Technology; smart building |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_219&r=ure |
| By: | Konrad Hedemann; Bing Zhu; Werner Lang |
| Abstract: | Green leases in commercial real estate have gained widespread attention from real estate investors in recent years. As an appendix to the lease contract, a green lease is designed to reduce energy consumption in buildings and ensure compliance with climate targets in their markets. Using a unique database, we study 7, 246 leases in 376 commercial assets to determine whether green leases lead to higher investment returns. Using a propensity score matching method, we find significant green lease premiums on investment returns in commercial assets. A 1% increase in green leases raises the rent by 0.23% and the net asset value by 0.38%, and decreases the operational expenditure ratio by 0.02% on average. The highest premiums were observed in Germany, with increases in rent of 0.40%, and in France, where the net asset value increased by 0.56%. The highest premium on leakage was 0.02%, in Germany, and the highest premium on yield was -0.01% in France. |
| Keywords: | commercial real estate; Green Leases; investment return; Tenant Engagement |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_127&r=ure |
| By: | Andreas Link |
| Abstract: | The Renaissance era in Western Europe was marked by a flourishing of economic and cultural life that gave rise to numerous discoveries and inventions. This paper studies the role played by Greek migrants in this process. Using a newly constructed dataset on Greek migrants in Europe after the fall of Constantinople in 1453, I show that a Greek presence in the second half of the fifteenth century increased city growth in the sixteenth century. In terms of mechanisms, I find that a Greek presence increased the available knowledge stock in astronomy, mathematics, and medicine – fields in which ancient Greek and Byzantine scholars were especially advanced. Finally, I document an increase in upper-tail human capital and inventions in these cities. In this way, the findings illustrate the important role of Greek migrants in disseminating scientific knowledge in early modern Europe and show their positive impact on city growth during that time. |
| Keywords: | Economic development, economic history, human capital, innovation, migration |
| JEL: | N13 N33 O15 O33 O47 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bav:wpaper:223_link&r=ure |
| By: | Elisa Failache (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Nicolás Fiori (Universidad de la República (Uruguay)); Noemi Katzkowicz (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Alina Machado (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Luciana Méndez (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | This article provides empirical evidence about the effects of COVID-19 on university students' educational outcomes in the first year of enrollment for a developing country, Uruguay. To do this, we use administrative microdata from the public university students from 2017 to 2020. Our findings show that students enrolled in 2020 are more likely to drop out and take fewer courses but are more prone to obtain larger scores than the previous generations. These effects are more pronounced for males and students from lower socioeconomic backgrounds. In addition, using survey data, we find that the lack of access to bibliographic material, the lack of interaction with teachers and students, and not having adequate resources is associated with a reduction in the number of approved courses, a less average score, and enrollment in fewer courses. Moreover, the possibility of having classes at any time, taking courses from home and avoiding the travelling time increase the number of approved courses and the average score. Finally, we observe that employed students do relatively worse than non-employed students. |
| Keywords: | pandemic, university, educational outcomes |
| JEL: | I23 I24 I25 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-02-22&r=ure |
| By: | Sylvia A. Allegretto (Center for Economic and Policy Research); Dave Graham-Squire (University of California San Francisco) |
| Abstract: | Rolling waves of consolidation have significantly decreased the number of hospital systems in the U.S. potentially affecting industry quality, prices, efficiency, wages and more. This research concerns the growth in hospital system consolidation in local labor markets and its effect on registered nurse wages. We first use a nonparametric preprocessing data step via matching methods to define MSA-specific samples of workers analogous to nurses outside of the hospital sector. This step enables an accounting of heterogeneous MSA-specific baseline wage growth, and yields a standardized measure of nurse wage growth across MSAs used to set up a multi-site quasi-experiment. We then run a parsimonious linear model; market size matters, for every 0.1 increase in consolidation in smaller-MSAs, real hourly nurse wage growth decreased by $0.70 (p-value of 0.038). Though not the primary aim of this study, a secondary finding is that real hourly wages for nurses grew less than that of comparable workers by $4.08. |
| Keywords: | monopsony, hospital consolidation, imperfect competition, matching methods for data preprocessing. |
| JEL: | C55 I11 J01 J42 |
| Date: | 2023–01–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:wpaper:inetwp197&r=ure |
| By: | Fynn, Lynn-Livia; Pollermann, Kim |
| Abstract: | Community-led local development (CLLD), initiated as LEADER in 1991, is a bottom-up-oriented, participatory approach driven by cooperation between local actors in rural areas. It forms part of regional development programmes (RDPs), which are the basis of funding in rural areas in the EU. Through LEADER/CLLD, budgets are allocated to LEADER regions on the local level to support the implementation of projects in line with so-calledlocal development strategies (LDS), which state the distinct objectives for local development in each region. This contribution focusses on one of the LEADER features, namely "LEADER cooperation", which explicitly supports cooperation between rural communities from two or more different regions through joint projects. The two main types of cooperation are 1. inter-territorial cooperation between two or more LAGs or comparable groups within a Member State and 2. transnational cooperation between two or more LAGs or comparable groups from different Member States. In our contribution, we present and discuss the state of implementation (experiences with different types, topics) as well as administrative aspects and outcomes of cooperation projects based on data from the evaluation of LEADER in four German federal states . In a first analysis of results, the larger time investment required in supraregional cooperation and different project selection criteria are identified as common challenges faced during the planning and management of LEADER cooperation projects while knowledge gain is widely seen as an added benefit. |
| Keywords: | LEADER, cooperation project, rural partnership, Germany |
| JEL: | R58 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:268882&r=ure |
| By: | Qiulin Ke; Michael White |
| Abstract: | With buildings accounting for 40% of the UK carbon footprint, environmental issues are becoming a significant focus for the commercial property industry. Since 2007 almost all units marketed for sale or lease have been required to exhibit an Energy Performance Certificate providing a rating of the energy efficiency of the unit from A (very efficient) to G (least efficient) as assessed by a specialist surveyor. However, there has been no consensus in the academic literature that energy efficiency is associated with higher transaction values and rents. But whether the behaviour of investors and tenants have changed due to the pressure of climate change. In this study, using a unique data set of existing office property rents and energy efficiency rating across the UK in 2021, we did not find that a better rating automatically gives rise to a higher rent. Other factors obviously come in to play too - for example, how recently the building may have been refurbished, other services the building provides such as a food service, bicycle shed, etc. The data also revealed that buildings with lower ratings commanded a higher rent than those with a superior EPC rating. |
| Keywords: | Energy Performance Certificate (EPC); Office Building; Office Rent; UK |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_94&r=ure |
| By: | Mathias Bühler |
| Abstract: | A central argument for trade liberalization is that when the ‘gains from trade’ are shared, countries see large gains in economic development. In this paper, I empirically evaluate this argument and assess the impact of elite capture on regional development. Africa provides a unique study ground because the arbitrary placement of country borders during the colonial period partitioned hundreds of ethnic groups across borders. This partitioning is a source of variation in population heterogeneity and cross-country connectedness that is independent of economic considerations. Thus, African borders provide both a credible instrument for bilateral trade flows and enable the assignment of trade flows —and their impacts— to individuals. I find that while ethnic networks increase trade flows, increased trade activity decreases subnational economic development when measured by satellite data or individual wealth. I show that this counter-intuitive result comes from elite groups capturing the gains from trade, with detrimental impacts on trust and democratic progress in society. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10270&r=ure |
| By: | Paloma Taltavull; Stanley McGreal; Tony McGough; Deborah Leshinsky |
| Abstract: | The family law courts in Australia are currently ill equipped to assess property valuations in regard to divorce. Judges face conflicts in the system, and there appears to be a lack of clarity regarding current market valuations. Judges look at valuations from both sides, resulting in outcomes that can be harmful to litigants and wasteful to society. While judges face the same valuation uncertainty as the parties themselves, expert witnesses will consequently continue to be called by the courts. This situation has prompted the interest in this study to evaluate the necessity for a review of court decisions. |
| Keywords: | Not always what you wish for - Post divorce and housing; Valuation and appraisal; Valuation Family law and divorce; Women and Housing and matrimonial home |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_254&r=ure |
| By: | Ana Aizcorbe; Jeffrey C. Chen |
| Abstract: | The arrival of new merchants poses problems for measuring inflation, and many think the resulting biases in the official statistics are nontrivial. The BLS methods treat identical commodities sold by different merchants as distinct, different goods but to the extent the goods are close substitutes then the CPI will be biased upward by an estimated 0.08 percentage point per year (Moulton 2017). There have not been many empirical studies to inform these estimates, owing to the paucity of the highly granular merchant-level data required. Studies based on external non-BLS sources have typically used a unit value index that essentially treats goods sold at different merchants as perfect substitutes, a controversial assumption. We also use a unit value index but with a different interpretation: We view a quality adjusted price index as the target and demonstrate that, in our context, the unit value index we calculate may be viewed as an upper bound to this unobserved target. Using detailed data from email receipts, we find that the arrival and growth of ride-sharing services in New York City likely imparted a nontrivial bias in the official price indexes for that city: a lower bound of 0.5 percentage point per year over the period 2015–2017. We attribute the magnitude of the bias to the sustained growth of ride sharing over this period, from 40 percent of the market in 2015 to 70 percent by 2017. |
| Keywords: | inflation measurement, price indices |
| JEL: | C43 E31 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsr:escoed:escoe-dp-2023-02&r=ure |
| By: | Ms. Alina Carare; Mr. Yorbol Yakhshilikov; Catherine Koh |
| Abstract: | Undocumented migration from the Northern Triangle countries (El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras) to the United States has been steadily increasing over the past 30 years, accelerating at times. The paper investigates what factors could explain this fact, by estimating an investment decision model, using annual data over 1990-2019. Economic labor market conditions (real wages and unemployment rates, especially in the U.S.) play a major role in explaining undocumented migration. Less explored drivers of undocumented migration tied to living conditions at home also explain well undocumented migration (natural disasters, coffee production, higher temperatures, and homicide rates). Tighter border enforcement measures act as a deterrent, and perceptions regarding changes of these measures could also drive up undocumented migration at times. Policies that address the root causes of migration at home, including with the U.S. help, are essential in reducing the difference between perceived benefits and expected costs of migration. |
| Keywords: | International migration; undocumented migration; U.S. Department of Agriculture; investment decision theory; U.S. Department of Homeland Security; NT country; Migration; Real wages; Income; Unemployment rate; Natural disasters; Caribbean; Western Hemisphere; Global |
| Date: | 2023–01–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/017&r=ure |
| By: | Okwuchi Juliet Akalemeaku |
| Abstract: | There are numerous historic and monumental properties scattered all over the nooks and crannies of Nigerian Cities which are in ruins due to poor management and neglect. Despite the facts that historic buildings play vital roles as places of tourism and recreation thus enhancing economic development and growth of many countries yet many of such sites in Nigeria are poorly managed. The study which is exploratory in nature seeks to discover why such properties are not properly managed and what can be done to sustain such properties so that they do not go into extinction. The study adopts a survey approach and makes use of online surveys to reach out to Property Managers on the role they play in the management of such properties, barriers to effective management and likely solutions for sustainable management of such properties. |
| Keywords: | Barriers, Historic, Monumental and Sustainable Management |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_115&r=ure |
| By: | Carine Milcent (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Many governments have sought to enhance patient choice in hospital by intensifying competitive pressure on hospital administrations that results in an improvement in efficiency, quality, and innovation. However, there is mixed evidence on whether patients travel past their local hospitals to seek better quality care and whether higherincome patients are those most sensitive to respond to competitive pressures. Using detailed data from 17 million inpatient stays admitted in France during 2019, this paper explores the attributes of hospital ownership as determinants of patients' choice for healthcare. We found that, in general, patients travel for their care, with just one-quarter of them going to the nearest hospital. In fact, the most vulnerable patients (i.e., those socioeconomically deprived, and very aged) are mostly treated in local public hospitals with the lowest quality service level, and with large variability in quality as well, while those with less socioeconomic deprivation seek care at higher-quality for-profit hospitals. Our counterfactual simulations show that admission to university hospitals attenuates existing inequalities. However, whether it delays the healthcare access sought by this population remains an open question. |
| Keywords: | Deprivation, Ageing, Inequality, Patient choice, Demand for healthcare, Rural areas, Quality, Distance |
| Date: | 2023–01–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03960599&r=ure |
| By: | Anna Matas (Institut d’Economia de Barcelona (IEB) / Universitat de Barcelona); Antonio Russo (Loughborough University); Jos Van Ommeren (Vu Amsterdam); Maria Börjesson (Vti and Linköping University); Daniel Albalate (Universitat de Barcelona); Xavier Fageda (Universitat de Barcelona) |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ieb:report:ieb_report_1_2022&r=ure |
| By: | McKay Price; Vladimir A. Gatchev; Nandkumar Nayar; Ajai Singh |
| Abstract: | DeAngelo, Gonçalves, and Stulz (2018) offer a “credit-card” perspective of debt and document that firms periodically deleverage to restore financial flexibility. However, the valuation consequences of deleveraging have been left unexplored. Lines of credit, closely monitored by the associated lending institutions, represent the closest analog to corporate credit-cards. Employing a sample of equity issuances, we find that deleveraging via repayments of credit lines is viewed favorably by markets. We posit that repayments replenish credit lines and restore financial flexibility, while preserving bank monitoring (Acharya, Almeida, Ippolito, Perez, 2014). We refer to the integrated beneficial effect as Monitored Financial Flexibility. |
| Keywords: | Credit lines; Deleveraging; Monitored financial flexibility; Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_121&r=ure |
| By: | Koen Voorend (Anker Research Institute); Richard Anker (Anker Research Institute); Martha Anker (Anker Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the argument that the cost of a decent standard of living is lower for migrants than for nationals when the former have family members left behind in a low-wage, low-cost country. The wage differential between the host country and the country of origin is not only a motivating factor behind migration, but also partly a reflection of differences in the cost of living. This paper therefore analyses whether, following this rationale, a lower wage for migrant workers can be in a sense justified if one ignores ethical concerns around the need for “equal pay for equal work” argument. We analyze this argument for Nicaraguan migrants in rural Costa Rica based on two existing living wage studies which found that the cost of a basic but decent living standard is 2.5 times higher in the receiving country Costa Rica. We f ind that the empirical foundation for justifying a lower wage for migrants based on migrants having lower living costs because their family members left behind have lower living costs is not confirmed. This unexpected result is due to two main factors: (i) migrants have double costs for some expenditures (like housing) as well as considerable migration-related costs such as fees, increased phone costs, and costs for transfers, and (ii) the contribution to family income of a spouse is considerably lower for migrants because their spouse is earning in a low wage country. |
| Keywords: | Living wage, migration, immigrant workers, agricultural labor markets, discrimination, living costs. |
| JEL: | D1 D10 J3 J43 J6 J7 J8 O1 O15 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iad:glliwa:210501&r=ure |
| By: | Maurizio d'Amato |
| Abstract: | The introduction in International Valuation Standards of Cyclical Assets raises several questions to the community of real estate professionals and academician (IVS 105 Valuation Approaches and Methods para 50.09 lett d). Cyclical Assets can be defined as property whose value is “influenced by upturn and downturn of the market in a significant way” (d’Amato et al., 2019). Ordinary direct capitalization is normally considered pro cyclical in its present form (De Lisle Grissom, 2011), for this reason alternative approach to direct capitalization may be useful in the determination of robust opinion of value. The valuation standards propose an alternative determination of terminal value in the Discounted Cash Flow Analysis, recommending that for cyclical assets, the terminal value should consider...” the cyclical nature of the asset and should not be performed in a way that assumes “peak” or “trough” levels of cash flows in perpetuity” (IVS 105 Valuation Approaches and Methods para 50.21 lett e). The paper propose different solutions to the problem. |
| Keywords: | Cyclical Asset; Property Market Cycle; Valuation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_236&r=ure |
| By: | Alexander Carlo; Nils Kok; Piet Eichholtz |
| Abstract: | Infrastructure has become an important part of institutional investors´ alternative asset portfolios all over the world. This paper documents that larger pension funds, public pension funds, and pension funds with a larger allocation to alternative assets are more likely to invest in infrastructure, and to manage it internally. Smaller pension funds make more use of intermediated external investment approaches, face higher investment costs and realize lower returns. We observe significant economies of scale for the investment performance of pension fund investments in infrastructure, while financial intermediation does not seem to lead to worse performance. Overall, as an institutional investment, infrastructure has proven to be the best-performing asset class over the 2007-2018 time period. The increase in infrastructure allocations by pension funds seem to be justified from a risk/return point of view. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure; investment performance; Pension fund; Real Assets |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_146&r=ure |
| By: | Randall Akee; Donn L. Feir; Marina Mileo Gorzig; Samuel Myers; Jr. |
| Abstract: | The relationship between local economic factors and “deaths of despair†are different for Native Americans than for white Americans. Higher employment measures are associated with higher proportions of Native American deaths attributed to alcohol and drug use. |
| Keywords: | Indigenous, Native American, Deaths of Despair, Economic development, Extraction industries, Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women and Girls (MMIWG) |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:66dbdc8916ee47bc912dd4bfa721f6eb&r=ure |
| By: | Kangasharju, Aki; Kauhanen, Antti; Kalmbach, Aino; Valkonen, Tarmo |
| Abstract: | Abstract The decline of working age population makes it difficult to find employees. In this report we analyze the evolution of immigrant employment in Finland and the fiscal impact of immigration as well as the effect on the labor market. We show that the number of employed immigrants as well as immigrants’ employment rate in Finland has increased. We review the economic impacts of immigration. We show that the fiscal impact of immigration depends heavily on the characteristics of immigrants and the time of immigration and therefore no general conclusions can be made on the economic impact. However, we show that full-time employees pay more taxes than receive direct income transfers and therefore their direct fiscal impact is positive. This is true also for employees employed at the lowest pay grades in the collective agreements. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Employment, Public finance |
| JEL: | J61 E24 |
| Date: | 2023–03–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:report:136&r=ure |
| By: | Matthew Turner; Neil Mehrotra; Juan Pablo Uribe |
| Abstract: | We pose the problem of managing the interstate as an optimal capital stock problem and define user cost as the charge per vehicle mile travelled that rationalizes observed investments in lane miles and pavement quality. We find that user cost is the sum of the opportunity cost of lane miles, pavement quality, and depreciation. Each depends on the price of lane miles and pavement quality. We estimate these prices and evaluate user cost. Despite large increases in the price of lane miles and pavement quality, user cost declines almost 50% from 1992-2008 due to lower interest rates and higher usage. Increased materials costs largely explain the increasing price of pavement quality, and we reject several common hypotheses for the increase in the price of lane miles. |
| JEL: | E22 R42 R53 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30989&r=ure |
| By: | Bhargava, Apoorv; Gόrnicka, Lucyna; Xie, Peichu |
| Abstract: | Sector-specific macroprudential regulations can increase the riskiness of credit to other sec-tors. First, using cross-country bank-level data we find that after a tightening of household-specific macroprudential policy during a credit expansion, banks with larger portfolios of residential mortgages increase their corporate lending by more than banks with smaller mortgage portfolios. Second, we compute three country-level measures of the riskiness of corporate credit allocation based on firm-level data. Consistently across the measures, an unexpected tightening of household-specific macroprudential tools during a credit expansion is followed by an increase in riskiness of corporate credit. These effects are quantitatively meaningful: the riskiness of corporate credit increases by around 10 percent of the historical standard deviation following an unexpected policy tightening. Further evidence from bank lending standards surveys suggests that the leakage effects are stronger for larger firms com-pared to SMEs, consistent with recent evidence on the use of personal real estate as loan collateral by small firms. JEL Classification: G21, G28, G38 |
| Keywords: | corporate credit risk, corporate loan growth, macroprudential regulations, sector-specific financial regulations |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20232784&r=ure |
| By: | Brano Glumac |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to support a better decision in choosing the most suitable vacant office(building) to house new tenants. In order to achieve that a decision support tool (DSS) based on three methods is proposed. First, a discrete choice model (DCM) can estimate the future tenants' rent willingness to pay (WTP) based on the data generated with an online experiment. Second, a multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) used a pair-wise comparison of building experts to establish the weight of criteria for a building transformation potential. Afterwards, an MCDA “multiplied” with the officially published cost approximation for five different levels of transformation. Lastly, rent WTP from DCM and transformation costs from MCDA are included in a discounted cash flow (DCF). With this DCF we can rank many buildings that are available on the market and make their preselection. The possibilities of this tool have been tested in a case study. Although applying decision tools for the building transformation projects has been studied, this paper suggests a specific tool that supports the transition from office space to housing for young people. |
| Keywords: | DCF; discrete choice model; pairwise comparison; Real Options |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2022–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:2022_258&r=ure |
| By: | Gislain S. GANDJON FANKEM (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Dieudonné TAKA (Douala, Cameroon); Sévérin TAMWO (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | This article fills the lack of work on the link between return migration and social cohesion in the country of origin of migration. For the first time, we assess the effect of skills acquired abroad by return migrants on social relations and quality of life in Cameroon using original survey data from the Institute of Demographic Training and Research. The main results, based on a probit model, show that formal and informal competences acquired abroad reduce the likelihood that return migrants will improve social relations and increase the probability that they will increase quality of life in their home country. These results remain robust to the inclusion of return migrants from African and non-democratic countries. Correcting for the endogeneity of skills acquired abroadby two-stage probit model with instrumental variablesdoes not alter these conclusions. Our results seem to corroborate the hypothesis that migration contributes to the transfer of norms and practices from destination countries to countries of origin. |
| Keywords: | Return migrants; skills; social relations; quality of life; Cameroon |
| JEL: | F22 O55 C3 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:23/011&r=ure |
| By: | Jacopo Bassetto; Giuseppe Ippedico |
| Abstract: | Brain drain is a growing concern for many countries experiencing large emigration rates of their highly educated citizens. While several European countries have designed preferential tax schemes to attract high-skilled individuals, there is limited empirical evidence on the effectiveness of fiscal incentives in a context of brain drain, and on migration responses beyond top earners. In this paper we investigate the effects of the Italian 2010 tax scheme “Controesodo”, which granted a generous income tax exemption to young high-skilled expatriates who relocate to Italy. Eligibility requires a college degree as well as being born in 1969 or later, which creates suitable quasi-experimental conditions to identify the effect of tax incentives. Using a Triple Difference design and administrative data on return migration, we find that eligible individuals are 27% more likely to move back to Italy post-reform. Additionally, using social security data from the main origin country of Italian returnees (Germany), we uncover significant effects throughout the wage distribution, suggesting that mobility in response to tax incentives is a broad phenomenon not limited to top earners. A cost-benefit analysis reveals that the direct fiscal impact of the reform – a lower bound of the total effect in the presence of human capital externalities – is marginally positive, by virtue of the tax scheme targeting young high-skilled individuals. |
| JEL: | J60 H20 F22 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10271&r=ure |
| By: | Jonathan V. Hall; John J. Horton; Daniel T. Knoepfle |
| Abstract: | Following Uber-initiated fare increases, drivers make more money per trip and, initially, more per hour-worked. Drivers begin to work more hours. However, this increase in hours-worked—combined with a reduction in demand from a higher fare—has a business stealing effect, with drivers spending a smaller fraction of working hours transporting passengers. This market adjustment brings the hourly earnings rate back to about the rate that prevailed before the fare increase, in roughly two months. Passengers are partially compensated for higher prices by shorter wait times, but during the period covered by our data, fare increases likely reduced passenger welfare. |
| JEL: | J01 R4 R41 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30883&r=ure |
| By: | Hiroshi Nishi; Kazuhiro Okuma |
| Abstract: | Recent crises show that the market economy does not function autonomously but needs re-silient social, natural, and institutional foundations. Accordingly, fiscal sustainability cannot be ignored, and the government’s role in fiscal policy and social infrastructure provision is becoming increasingly important. We build a Kaleckian dynamic model that can comprehen-sively analyse the growth, distribution, and employment rate of the government’s social infra-structure and debt accumulation under alternative growth and distribution regimes. The model allows for not only wage-led growth (WLG) and profit-led growth (PLG) regimes but also labour-market-led (LML) and goods-market-led (GML) distribution regimes. Particular attention is paid to the demand effects of fiscal policy and productivity growth effect of social infrastructure investment. Our model derives the following results. A combination of alterna-tive growth and distribution regimes is important for stability. This demonstrates that the cy-clical behaviours of the WLG/GML and PLG/LML regimes are highly contrasting. When gov-ernment debt also changes in the long run, the Domar condition is required for stability. In contrast to the principally Kaleckian nature, the long-run economic growth rate depends not on demand or fiscal parameters but on supply side parameters determining the natural growth rate. Based on these results, we explain that the government can still play an im-portant role in stabilising the economy, improving the quality of social infrastructure, and achieving a resilient economy. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal policy, social infrastructure, Kaleckian model, growth regime, distribution regime |
| JEL: | E11 E12 E25 H54 O40 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2304&r=ure |
| By: | Pinka Chatterji; Chun-Yu Ho; Xue Wu |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether loss of locally available hospital-based obstetric services affects racial/ethnic disparities in intrapartum care access and birth outcomes in rural areas of the US. To conduct causal inference, we combine difference-in-difference and propensity score matching methods to control for observable and time-invariant unobservable heterogeneity across counties. Using data from Vital Statistics birth certificate records from 2005-2018 from rural counties in the mainland US, our empirical analysis reaches several findings. Women in counties that lost obstetric services are more likely to receive intrapartum care outside their counties of residence and to deliver in an urban county compared to women in matched counties. Nonetheless, there are no consistent effects of obstetric unit closure on maternal and infant health in the full sample. Among Black mothers, however, obstetric unit closure is not associated with delivering in an urban county, and there is a more consistent pattern of negative effects of closure on infant health. Importantly, the adoption of scope-of-practice laws for certified nurse midwives, the adoption of telehealth payment parity laws and the ACA Medicaid expansions have implications for narrowing racial/ethnic disparities in health in response to obstetric unit closures. |
| JEL: | I0 I1 I11 I14 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30986&r=ure |
| By: | Zhang, Xin (Beijing Normal University); Chen, Xi (Yale University); Zhang, Xiaobo (Peking University) |
| Abstract: | This paper offers one of the first evidence in a developing country context that transitory exposure to high temperatures may disrupt low-stakes cognitive activities across a range of age cohorts. By matching eight years of repeated cognitive tests among all the participants in a nationally representative longitudinal survey in China with weather data according to the exact time and geographic location of their assessment, we show that exposure to a temperature above 32 °C on the test date, relative to a moderate day within 22–24 °C, leads to a sizable decline in their math scores by 0.066 standard deviations (equivalent to 0.23 years of education). Also, the effect on the math test scores becomes more pronounced as people age, especially for males and the less educated. However, the test takers living in hotter regions or those with air conditioning installed on site are less vulnerable to extreme high temperatures, indicating the role of adaptation. |
| Keywords: | cognition, high temperatures, climate change, adaptation, age gradients |
| JEL: | I24 Q54 Q51 D91 J14 J16 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15972&r=ure |
| By: | Stefania Basiglio (University of Bari); Daniela Del Boca (University of Turin and Collegio Carlo Alberto); Chiara Pronzato (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the impact of “Coding Girls†, an educational enrichment program designed to address the underrepresentation of women and girls in the fields of science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) in Italy by stimulating young female students’ interest in programming and science and encouraging them to consider careers in STEMrelated fields. Implemented in ten secondary schools in Turin (Italy) over the period 2019- 2022, the Coding Girls program provided lab-based computer programming instruction as well as introductory talks on specific topics in STEM. The program was evaluated by randomized controlled trial. Our results show that Coding Girls had a significant and positive impact on male and female students’ programming skills and on their awareness of gender differences in the workforce. However, it did not seem to affect girls’ aspirations to pursue higher education in STEM-related disciplines. The gender stereotypes children are exposed to from a very young age tend to steer girls and young women to the humanities. This bias is deeply entrenched and difficult to modify. |
| Keywords: | gender, STEM, higher educational choice |
| JEL: | J16 I23 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2023-006&r=ure |
| By: | Beatrice Baaba Tawiah (Paderborn University); Valentin Schiele (University of Paderborn) |
| Abstract: | This paper replicates the analysis of Schneeweis et al. (2014) using their sample as well as an extended sample. Schneeweis et al. (2014) use the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) dataset and exploit compulsory schooling reforms implemented in six European countries to analyse the impact of education on cognitive functioning decades after leaving school. They find a positive effect of education on memory scores and some evidence of a protective effect of education on the decline in verbal fluency. Our results support their findings when we use the same waves as they do, but also when we extend the sample by including more countries and interview waves and use different variables for years of education. |
| Keywords: | Replication; Education; Cognitive abilities;Compulsory schooling |
| JEL: | I21 D91 J14 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdn:dispap:102&r=ure |
| By: | Brian Adams; Lara Loewenstein; Hugh Montag; Randal Verbrugge |
| Abstract: | https://www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers /2022/ec220100.htm |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bls:wpaper:555&r=ure |
| By: | Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Stavroula Yfanti; Menelaos Karanasos; Jiaying Wu |
| Abstract: | This study examines the macro drivers of the time-varying (dynamic) connectedness between eleven European tourism sectors. Financial integration between the travel and leisure markets, measured by their dynamic correlations or co-movement, is explained by common global fundamentals. The empirical results provide new evidence on the counter-cyclical behaviour of the correlations; in particular, stronger cross-country interdependence can be attributed to economic slowdowns characterized by higher uncertainty and geopolitical risk, tighter credit and liquidity conditions, and sluggish economic and real estate activity. Further, economic and political uncertainty is found to intensify the macro effects on tourism correlations. Finally, crises such as the 2008 financial turmoil, the subsequent European debt crisis, and the recent Covid-19 pandemic crash, also magnify the impact of macro drivers on the evolution of co-movement and integration in the tourism sector. |
| Keywords: | cross-country tourism correlations, economic policy uncertainty, financial/health crisis, financial integration, sectoral contagion, travel and leisure industry |
| JEL: | C32 D80 G01 L83 Z39 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10269&r=ure |
| By: | De Bacco, Caterina; Contisciani, Martina; Cardoso Silva, Jon; Safdari, Hadiseh; Borges, Gabriela Lima; Baptista, Diego; Sweet, Tracy; Young, Jean-Gabriel; Jeremy, Koster; Ross, Cody T; McElreath, Richard; Redhead, Daniel; Power, Eleanor |
| Abstract: | Social network data are often constructed by incorporating reports from multiple individuals. However, it is not obvious how to reconcile discordant responses from individuals. There may be particular risks with multiply reported data if people’s responses reflect normative expectations—such as an expectation of balanced, reciprocal relationships. Here, we propose a probabilistic model that incorporates ties reported by multiple individuals to estimate the unobserved network structure. In addition to estimating a parameter for each reporter that is related to their tendency of over- or under-reporting relationships, the model explicitly incorporates a term for ‘mutuality’, the tendency to report ties in both directions involving the same alter. Our model’s algorithmic implementation is based on variational inference, which makes it efficient and scalable to large systems. We apply our model to data from a Nicaraguan community collected with a roster-based design and 75 Indian villages collected with a name-generator design. We observe strong evidence of ‘mutuality’ in both datasets, and find that this value varies by relationship type. Consequently, our model estimates networks with reciprocity values that are substantially different than those resulting from standard deterministic aggregation approaches, demonstrating the need to consider such issues when gathering, constructing, and analysing survey-based network data. |
| Keywords: | social network data; mutuality; reliability; variational inference; latent network; network measurement; OUP deal |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2023–02–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:117271&r=ure |