nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2023‒02‒20
76 papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Local retail prices, product varieties and neighborhood change By Borraz, Fernando; Carozzi, Felipe; Gonzalez Pampillon, Nicolas
  2. The Economics of Cities: From Theory to Data By Stephen J. Redding
  3. A Tale of Tier 3 Cities By Mr. Kenneth Rogoff; Yuanchen Yang
  4. More Roads or Public Transit? Insights from Measuring City-Center Accessibility By Lucas J. Conwell; Fabian Eckert; Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak
  5. Regulating For-Hire Autonomous Vehicles for An Equitable Multimodal Transportation Network By Jing Gao; Sen Li
  6. Investment incentives of rent controls and gentrification – Evidence from German micro data By Vera Baye; Valeriya Dinger
  7. The role of spatial inequalities on youth migration decisions: Empirical evidence from Nigeria By Amare, Mulubrhan; Abay, Kibrom A.; Chamberlin, Jordan
  8. The refugee mobility puzzle: Why do refugees move to cities with high unemployment rates once residence restrictions are lifted? By Wiedner, Jonas; Schaeffer, Merlin
  9. Do Wildfires Harm Student Learning? By Ge We
  10. Changing the Odds: Student Achievement after Introduction of a Middle School Math Intervention By Julian R. Betts; Andrew C. Zau; Karen Volz Bachofer; Dina Polichar
  11. Peak-Hour Road Congestion Pricing: Experimental Evidence and Equilibrium Implications By Gabriel Kreindler
  12. The Effect of Credit Constraints on Housing Prices: (Further) Evidence from a Survey Experiment By Tom Cusbert
  13. Defensible Space, Housing Density, and Diablo-North Wind Events: Impacts on Loss Rates for Homes in Northern California Wildfires By Schmidt, James
  14. Research on the Impact of Innovative City and Smart City Construction on Digital Economy: Evidence from China By Zhanpeng Huang
  15. Trading Places: Mobility Responses of Native and Foreign-Born Adults to the China Trade Shock By David Autor; David Dorn; Gordon H. Hanson
  16. Healthcare assimilation of immigrants By Catia Batista; Ana Beatriz Gomes
  17. Background matters, but not whether parents are immigrants: outcomes of children born in Denmark By Fjaellegaard Jensen, Mathias; Manning, Alan
  18. Can grit be taught? Lessons from a nationwide field experiment with middle-school students By Santos, Indhira; Petroska-Beska, Violeta; Carneiro, Pedro; Eskreis-Winkler, Lauren; Munoz Boudet, Ana Maria; Berneil, Ines; Krekel, Christian; Arias, Omar; Duckworth, Angela
  19. School Choice with Farsighted Students By Atay, Ata; Mauleon, Ana; Vannetelbosch, Vincent
  20. Sprouting Cities: How Rural America Industrialized By Fabian Eckert; John Juneau; Michael Peters
  21. Rural Households Hit Hardest by Inflation in 2021-22 By Rajashri Chakrabarti; Dan Garcia; Maxim L. Pinkovskiy
  22. Bringing underprivileged middle-school students to the opera: cultural mobility or cultural compliance? By Philippe Coulangeon; Denis Fougère
  23. Electoral Accountability and Local Support for National Policies By Alabrese, Eleanora; Liberini, Federica; Porcelli, Francesco; Redoano, Michela; Russo, Antonio
  24. Spatial differentiation of socio-economic development of the Far Eastern macroregion By Aleksandra Kislenok; Elena Sukhareva
  25. Increasing Highway Capacity Induces More Auto Travel By Volker, Jamey; Handy, Susan
  26. Natural Disasters, Epidemics and Intergovernmental Relations: More or Less Decentralisation? By Luiz de Mello; Jo‹o Tovar Jalles
  27. Exploring European Regional Trade By Santamaria, Marta; Ventura, Jaume; Yesilbayraktar, Ugur
  28. Migration out of poverty: The case of post-war migration in Mozambique By Maimuna Ibraimo; Eva-Maria Egger
  29. The Design of Teacher Assignment: Theory and Evidence By Julien Combe; Olivier Tercieux; Camille Terrier
  30. Social networks and mental health: the experience of Cape-Verdean migrants in Portugal By Catia Batista; Rita Neves
  31. The Effects of Subsidized Flood Insurance on Real Estate Markets By Garbarino, Nicola; Guin, Benjamin; Lee, Jonathan
  32. Integrating immigrants as a tool for broad development By Catia Batista; Jules Gazeaud; Julia Seither
  33. Understanding the Travel Needs of Underserved Populations That Rely on Transportation Network Companies in the San Francisco Bay Area By Shaheen, Susan; Cohen, Adam; Gosselin, Kate; Broader, Jacquelyn
  34. High school and exam scores: Does their predictive validity for academic performance vary with programme selectivity? By Pedro Luis Silva; Carla Sá; Ricardo Biscaia; Pedro N. Teixeira
  35. Border Apprehensions and Federal Sentencing of Hispanic Citizens in the United States By Simone Bertoli; Morgane Laouenan; Jérôme Valette
  36. The future geography of industries and occupations By Milene Tessarin; Deyu Li; Sergio Petralia; Ron Boschma
  37. Optimal minimum wages By Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M.; Roth, Duncan; Seidel, Tobias
  38. The 4IR and Regional Capacity By Lee, Won Bok
  39. Sparse production networks By Bernard, Andrew B.; Zi, Yuan
  40. The effects of parental union dissolution on children’s test scores By Holm, Mathilde Lund; Fallesen, Peter; Heinesen, Eskil
  41. Deterrence or Backlash? Arrests and the Dynamics of Domestic Violence By Sofia Amaral; Gordon B. Dahl; Victoria Endl-Geyer; Timo Hener; Helmut Rainer
  42. Climate change concerns and information spillovers from socially-connected friends By Mayer, Maximilian
  43. Selecting only the best and brightest? An assessment of migration policy selectivity and its effectiveness By Glenn Rayp; Ilse Ruyssen; Samuel Standaert
  44. Taste of home: Birth town bias in Geographical Indications By Resce, Giuliano; Vaquero-Piñeiro, Cristina
  45. Common Subcontracting, Multimarket Contact, and Airline Prices By Gaurab Aryal; Dennis J. Campbell; Federico Ciliberto; Ekaterina A. Khmelnitskaya
  46. Updating the Induced Travel Calculator By Volker, Jamey; Handy, Susan
  47. Gender Gap and Parenthood Penalties in Business Travel from 2001 to 2017: Occupational Variations and Associations with Technology Use By Hristina Gaydarska; Miwa Matsuo
  48. Local Labor Market Impacts of the Energy Transition: Prospects and Policies By Gordon H. Hanson
  49. Labor Supply Shocks and Capital Accumulation: The Short and Long Run Effects of the Refugee Crisis in Europe By Lorenzo Caliendo; Luca David Opromolla; Fernando Parro; Alessandro Sforza
  50. The effect of minority bank ownership on minority credit By Hurtado, Agustin; Sakong, Jung
  51. Financial access and labor market outcomes: evidence from credit lotteries By Bernardus F Nazar Van Doornik; Armando Gomes; David Schoenherr; Janis Skrastins
  52. Effects of the Minimum Wage on U.S. County Labor Markets By Otterby, Dawn; Crawley, Andrew; Gabe, Todd
  53. Mandatory Seatbelt Laws and Traffic Fatalities: A Reassessment By D. Mark Anderson; Yang Liang; Joseph J. Sabia
  54. Social push and the direction of innovation By Einiö, Elias; Feng, Josh; Jaravel, Xavier
  55. Time Savings When Working from Home By Cevat Giray Aksoy; Jose Maria Barrero; Nicholas Bloom; Steven J. Davis; Mathias Dolls; Pablo Zarate
  56. Do wildfires burn tourism intentions? The case of Portugal By João Cerejeira; Rita Sousa; Carolina Bernardo; António Bento-Gonçalves
  57. The Structural and Productivity Effects of Infrastructure Provision in Developed and Developing Countries By Boto-Garcia, David; Leoni, Veronica
  58. Women’s Rights and the Gender Migration Gap By Jerg Gutmann; Léa Marchal; Betül Simsek
  59. The effect of primary school education on preventive behaviours during COVID-19 in Japan By Eiji Yamamura; Yoshiro Tsutsui; Fumio Ohtake
  60. How Can Municipalities in British Columbia and Québec Contribute to Flood Risk Reduction? By Bernard Deschamps; Michael Bourdeau-Brien; Mathieu Boudreault
  61. Using Taxes to Attract the Creative Class in the Presence of a Region-Specific Rent By Batabyal, Amitrajeet; Yoo, Seung Jick
  62. State financialization: Permanent austerity, financialized real estate and the politics of public assets in Italy By Félix Adisson; Ludovic Halbert
  63. Statistical inference for the logarithmic spatial heteroskedasticity model with exogenous variables By Bing Su; Fukang Zhu; Ke Zhu
  64. Charity in the time of austerity: in search of the 'Big Society' By Gibbons, Stephen; Hilber, Christian A. L.
  65. Own-source budget revenues in the regions of the Russian Far East By Aleksei Novitskii; Ilya Shevchenko
  66. Residential Location and the Male-Female Gap in Labor Market Outcomes - A Lesson from Newcomers to Israel By Moshe Buchinsky; Chemi Gotlibovski; Osnat Lifshitz
  67. Strategic Behavior with Tight, Loose and Polarized Norms By Eugen Dimant; Michele Gelfand; Anna Hochleitner; Silvia Sonderegger
  68. Processes analogous to ecological interactions and dispersal shape the dynamics of economic activities By Victor Boussange; Didier Sornette; Heike Lischke; Lo\"ic Pellissier
  69. Measuring Returns to Experience Using Supervisor Ratings of Observed Performance: The Case of Classroom Teachers By Courtney A. Bell; Jessalynn K. James; Eric S. Taylor; James Wyckoff
  70. Decentralisation, Unfunded Mandates, and the Regional Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic By AndrŽs Rodr’guez-Pose; Miquel Vidal-Bover
  71. Does Less Education Harm Health? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in a Developing Country By Mallick, Debdulal; Khalil, Islam; Nicholas, Aaron
  72. Regional Disparities in Europe By Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan; Mr. Christian H Ebeke; Mr. Davide Malacrino; Louise Rabier; Melih Firat
  73. News Diffusion in Social Networks and Stock Market Reactions By David Hirshleifer; Lin Peng; Qiguang Wang
  74. Trade and Regional Economic Development By Mathias Bühler
  75. Seven Economic Facts About the U.S. Racial Wealth Gap By Darlene Booth-Bell; Kristen Broady; Taylor Griffin
  76. Benchmarking Plans for Community-based Small Business Resilience across Gulf Coast Counties By Guo, Ziyi; Wang, Yan

  1. By: Borraz, Fernando; Carozzi, Felipe; Gonzalez Pampillon, Nicolas
    Abstract: We study how local grocery prices within a city are affected by changes in housing markets. Our empirical strategy is based on an exogenous shift in the spatial distribution of construction activity induced by a large-scale, place-based tax exemption in the city of Montevideo. We provide instrumental variable estimates showing that the relative price of grocery goods decreases in areas within the city that experience more residential development: the estimated elasticity of grocery prices to newly-built residential space lies between -3 and -4%. Using a multi-product model of imperfect competition, we show that this negative effect can result from either an expansion in product varieties or firm entry. We report evidence supporting the varieties channel, with new residential development causing an increase in varieties of groceries available locally, and evidence of changes in the composition of stores.
    Keywords: retail prices; housing stock; neighborhood change
    JEL: R23 R32
    Date: 2022–01–20
  2. By: Stephen J. Redding
    Abstract: Economic activity is highly unevenly distributed within cities, as reflected in the concentration of economic functions in specific locations, such as finance in the Square Mile in London. The extent to which this concentration reflects natural advantages versus agglomeration forces is central to a range of public policy issues, including the impact of local taxation and transport infrastructure improvements. This paper reviews recent quantitative urban models, which incorporate both differences in natural advantages and agglomeration forces, and can be taken directly to observed data on cities. We show that these models can be used to estimate the strength of agglomeration forces and evaluate the impact of transportation infrastructure improvements on welfare and the spatial distribution of economic activity.
    JEL: R32 R41 R52
    Date: 2023–01
  3. By: Mr. Kenneth Rogoff; Yuanchen Yang
    Abstract: This paper provides new estimates of the housing stock, construction rates and price developments by city tier in China in order to understand where imbalances might be concentrated, and the implications of any significant contraction. We also update estimates of the size of China’s rapidly evolving real estate sector through 2021, allowing one to look at the initial impact of COVID-19, as well as extending the analysis to incorporate urban-expansion related infrastructure construction. We argue that China overall faces imbalances between supply and demand for housing stock, but the problem is significantly deeper outside tier 1 cities.
    Keywords: China; Real Estate; Macro Economy; sector vulnerability; housing stock estimation; infrastructure construction; infrastructure investment; construction rate; Housing; Stocks; Infrastructure; Housing prices; Depreciation
    Date: 2022–09–30
  4. By: Lucas J. Conwell; Fabian Eckert; Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak
    Abstract: We propose a theory-inspired measure of the accessibility of a city's center: the size of the surrounding area from which it can be reached within a specific time. Using publicly available optimal-routing software, we compute these "accessibility zones" for the 109 largest US and European cities, separately for cars and public transit commutes. Compared with European cities, US cities are half as accessible via public transit and twice as accessible via cars. Car accessibility zones are always larger than public transit zones, making US cities more accessible overall. However, US cities' car orientation comes at the cost of less green space, more congestion, and worse health and pollution externalities.
    JEL: Q5 R0 R4
    Date: 2023–01
  5. By: Jing Gao; Sen Li
    Abstract: This paper assesses the equity impacts of for-hire autonomous vehicles (AVs) and investigates regulatory policies that promote the spatial and social equity in future autonomous mobility ecosystems. To this end, we consider a multimodal transportation network, where a ride-hailing platform operates a fleet of AVs to offer mobility-on-demand services in competition with a public transit agency that offers transit services on a transportation network. A game-theoretic model is developed to characterize the intimate interactions between the ride-hailing platform, the transit agency, and multiclass passengers with distinct income levels. An algorithm is proposed to compute the Nash equilibrium of the game and conduct an ex-post evaluation of the performance of the obtained solution. Based on the proposed framework, we evaluate the spatial and social equity in transport accessibility using Theil index, and find that although the proliferation of for-hire AVs in the ride-hailing network improves overall accessibility, the benefits are not fairly distributed among distinct locations or population groups, implying that the deployment of AVs will enlarge the existing spatial and social inequity gaps in the transportation network if no regulatory intervention is in place. To address this concern, we investigate two regulatory policies that can improve transport equity: (a) a minimum service-level requirement on ride-hailing service, which improves the spatial equity in the transport network; (b) a subsidy on ride-hailing trips that serve as first/last-mile connection to public transit, which promotes the use of public transit and improves the social equity of the transport network. We show that the minimum service-level requirement entails a trade-off: as a higher minimum service level is imposed, the spatial inequity reduces, but the social inequity will be exacerbated. In contrast...
    Date: 2023–01
  6. By: Vera Baye (University of Osnabrueck); Valeriya Dinger (University of Osnabrueck and Leeds University Business Schoo)
    Abstract: We empirically document that the effectiveness of the German rent control introduced in 2015 in achieving rental housing affordability is limited. Exploring the reasons for this limited effectiveness we focus on the impact of the rent control on the yield on rental housing investments proxied by rent-price ratios which we derive by matching micro-level quotes on similar objects offered for rent and for sale. Exploiting the temporal, regional, and objectspecific variation generated by the design of the rent control we identify a causal negative effect of the rent control on the yield of rental objects subject to the regulation. Further, we zoom into the spillovers across regulated objects and objects in the affected markets that were exempt from the regulation and find rising yields for the exempted objects, suggesting that the regulation contributed to gentrification via a shift of rental housing supply away from the regulated segment.
    Keywords: rent control, micro data, rent-price ratio, housing affordability, housing supply
    JEL: R38 R31 E65 R21 R23 R10
    Date: 2023–01–31
  7. By: Amare, Mulubrhan; Abay, Kibrom A.; Chamberlin, Jordan
    Abstract: We combine nationally representative data from Nigeria with spatiotemporal data from remote sensing and other sources to study how young migrants respond to observable characteristics of potential destinations, both in absolute terms and relative to origin locations. Migrants prefer destinations with better welfare, land availability and intensity of economic activity. We also find that migrants prefer shorter distances and those destinations with better urban amenities and infrastructure. However, responses vary by type of migrant and migration. For example, rural-rural migrants are more responsive to land availability and agricultural potential, while rural-urban and urban-urban migrants are more responsive to welfare and economic vibrancy (measured by nightlight intensity) in destinations. Distance induces varying impact on migration choices of poor and non-poor migrants as well as across more educated and less educated migrants. Longer distances discourage migration for female migrants, poorer migrants and less educated migrant while the implication for the non-poor and more educated migrants appears to be negligible. This is intuitive because poorer and less educated migrants have liquidity constraints to finance high migration costs. Our results suggest potential scope for predicting how labor mobility responds to alternative regional development policies.
    Keywords: NIGERIA; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; data; data analysis; destinations; development policies; economics; educational opportunities; labour; land; land access; migration; migrants; provenance; remote sensing; welfare; spatiotemporal data
    Date: 2022
  8. By: Wiedner, Jonas; Schaeffer, Merlin (WZB Berlin Social Science Center)
    Abstract: Social science research demonstrates that dispersal policies and restrictions on the freedom of residence have inhibited refugees’ socio-economic integration. The dominant explanation is that such policies prevent refugees from moving to places where they can employ their skills most fruitfully. However, previous studies of refugees’ actual residential choices in Europe provide little evidence that refugees move to places with good employment prospects. The combination of negative effects of residence restrictions and emerging evidence of disadvantaging secondary migration forms what we call the ‘refugee mobility puzzle’. In this study, we address this puzzle and ask: What attracts refugees to deprived areas, and can their seemingly unfortunate residential choices be understood as moves to labor market opportunity after all? Empirically, we draw on the IAB-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Refugees, track the location of more than 2, 500 refugee respondents, and estimate discrete choice models across all German counties and postcodes. Our results confirm the existence of the refugee-mobility puzzle and complicate recent critiques of dispersal policies and restrictions by suggesting that refugees’ need for affordable housing and their desire to be close to (co-ethnic) friends and family may turn into an unintended lock-in factor in the mid- and long-run.
    Date: 2023–01–23
  9. By: Ge We (Department of Economics, University of Tennessee)
    Abstract: I evaluate the effect of wildfire smoke on primary and middle school students’ English Language Arts (ELA) and math achievement across the United States. To estimate students’ exposure to wildfires at the school district level, I merge satellite-based wildfire smoke plume boundaries and 1km-grid daily PM2.5 values with school district locations, and weight the exposure by census tract population. I find that recent drifting wildfire smoke plumes significantly lower ELA and math test scores. When I proxy the wildfire intensity by PM2.5, results suggest that severe wildfires generate lasting effects on young students in primary school. Effects are only transitory for students in middle school. Further analysis reveals that Black students in primary school and economically disadvantaged students are more negatively affected than others. Males are more affected by unhealthy air quality in elementary ELA and middle school math than female students. Overall, findings suggest that more environmental and educational policy responses are needed to protect students with the increase in wildfire occurrence and intensity
    Keywords: Wildfire, Academic Performance, Education Disparity
    JEL: I21 I24 Q54
    Date: 2022–02
  10. By: Julian R. Betts; Andrew C. Zau; Karen Volz Bachofer; Dina Polichar
    Abstract: The paper evaluates math performance at four high-need middle schools during a four-year intervention, which was designed to help math teachers diagnose students’ areas of need and to design lesson plans responsive to those needs. Before the intervention began, the researchers pre-selected four comparison schools by matching based on achievement and also on demographics. A difference-in-difference analysis finds a significant increase of about 0.11 standard deviation in test scores per year for students in the program schools. Supplementary event study and synthetic control analyses to detect year-by-year effects lack precision but are weakly suggestive of a smaller impact in year 1 than later years. A cost analysis considers the affordability of extending similar programs.
    JEL: I2 I21 I24 I28
    Date: 2023–01
  11. By: Gabriel Kreindler
    Abstract: Developing country megacities suffer from severe road traffic congestion, yet the level of congestion is not a direct measure of equilibrium inefficiency. I study the peak-hour traffic congestion equilibrium in Bangalore. To measure travel preferences, I use a model of departure time choice to design a field experiment with congestion pricing policies and implement it using precise GPS data. Commuter responses in the experiment reveal moderate schedule inflexibility and a high value of time. I then show that in Bangalore, traffic density has a moderate and linear impact on travel delay. My policy simulations with endogenous congestion indicate that optimal congestion charges would lead to a small reduction in travel times, and small commuter welfare gains. This result is driven primarily by the shape of the congestion externality. Overall, these results suggest limited commuter welfare benefits from peak-spreading traffic policies in cities like Bangalore.
    JEL: C93 D62 H23 O1 R40
    Date: 2023–01
  12. By: Tom Cusbert (Reserve Bank of Australia)
    Abstract: The response of housing prices to financing conditions is determined by the effect on the marginal buyer, not the average household. I use heterogeneous willingness to pay (WTP) data from a stated preference experiment in Fuster and Zafar (2021) to estimate the effects of changes in mortgage rates and collateral constraints on housing prices by analysing the structure of housing demand curves. This work builds on their research, which focused on average changes in WTP. Relaxing down payment constraints has a large average effect on WTP, but the effect on price is less than half as large. Financially constrained households tend to respond more to relaxed constraints, but those households often have WTPs that are too low to affect market prices. Changing the mortgage rate has the same average effect on WTPs and on market prices, because there is no systematic relationship between a household's response to mortgage rates and their location on the demand curve. I use a heterogeneous user cost model of individual WTPs to understand how household heterogeneity determines the structure of overall housing demand. An empirical model using observable household characteristics allows the experimental findings to be applied to other household survey data to simulate the effects of credit conditions. The simulated effects of easing collateral constraints in Australia are fairly stable over the past 20 years, and show a similar pattern to the US results.
    Keywords: credit; housing; collateral constraints
    JEL: G21 G51 R21 R38
    Date: 2023–01
  13. By: Schmidt, James
    Abstract: If a house is exposed to a wildfire, what is the probability that it will be destroyed? How is the risk of loss affected by vegetation cover near the home (i.e., defensible space), the proximity to other homes, and wind levels? This study addresses these questions with an analysis of 36, 777 single-family homes involved in ten recent Northern California wildfires. Two logistic regression models are constructed, one for Diablo-North Wind (DNW) fires and another for fires with more moderate winds. Vegetation cover within 50 meters and housing density within 100 meters of each house are identified as statistically significant variables. But the models including those two variables alone are relatively weak predictors of structure loss. The addition of an autocovariate derived from the outcomes for nearby houses substantially improves prediction accuracy. The autocovariate partially accounts for events during fires, such as wind changes or structure-to-structure fire spread, which influence the fate of multiple homes in close proximity. The effect on classification accuracy is illustrated for the Coffee Park neighborhood in the 2017 Tubbs Fire. Increases in housing density appear to have little effect on loss rates in moderate wind fires, but can raise loss rates by 35% in DNW fires. A 10% reduction in vegetation cover near homes is estimated to reduce loss probability by 4-6% in most situations, but by only 1-2% when high winds are combined with high housing density. Loss rates are 20-60% higher in DNW fires compared to moderate wind fires for the same levels of vegetation cover and housing density. Previous studies and Red Flag Warning data indicate that the San Francisco Bay Area is most at risk for Diablo-North winds, followed by the Northern Sierras. The higher elevations found in the Sierras south of Lake Tahoe tend to reduce the chances for DNW-type events.
    Keywords: : Wildfire; Diablo wind; North wind; Mono wind; Tubbs Fire; Camp Fire; Butte Fire; Valley Fire; Carr Fire; CZU Lightning Complex Fire; LNU Lightning Complex Fire; North Complex Fire; Dixie Fire; Caldor Fire; Claremont-Bear Fire; Santa Rosa; Paradise; San Francisco Bay Area; Sierra Nevada; structure loss; vegetation cover; housing density; RAWS; Red Flag Warning; defensible space; wildfire risk; NDVI; public power shutoffs; spatial autocorrelation; autocovariate; AUC; Moran’s I statistic; logistic regression;
    JEL: C31 Q23 Q54
    Date: 2023–01–28
  14. By: Zhanpeng Huang
    Abstract: Does the national innovation city and smart city pilot policy, as an important institutional design to promote the transformation of old and new dynamics, have an important impact on the digital economy? What are the intrinsic mechanisms? Based on the theoretical analysis of whether smart city and national innovation city policies promote urban digital economy, this paper constructs a multi-temporal double difference model based on a quasi-natural experiment with urban dual pilot policies and systematically investigates the impact of dual pilot policies on the development of digital economy. It is found that both smart cities and national innovation cities can promote the development of digital economy, while there is a synergistic effect between the policies. The mechanism test shows that the smart city construction and national innovation city construction mainly affect the digital economy through talent agglomeration effect, technology agglomeration effect and financial agglomeration effect.
    Date: 2023–01
  15. By: David Autor; David Dorn; Gordon H. Hanson
    Abstract: Previous research finds that the greater geographic mobility of foreign than native-born workers following economic shocks helps to facilitate local labor market adjustment to shifting regional economic conditions. We examine the role that immigration may have played in enabling U.S. commuting zones to respond to manufacturing job loss caused by import competition from China. Although population headcounts of the foreign-born fell by more than those of the native-born in regions exposed to the China trade shock, the overall contribution of immigration to labor market adjustment in this episode was small. Because most U.S. immigrants arrived in the country after manufacturing regions were already mature, few took up jobs in industries that would later see increased import penetration from China. The foreign-born share of the working-age population in regions with high trade exposure was only three-fifths that in regions with low exposure. Immigration thus appears more likely to aid adjustment to cyclical shocks, in which job loss occurs in regions that had recent booms in hiring, rather than facilitating adjustment to secular regional decline, in which hiring booms occurred in the more distant past.
    JEL: E24 F14 F16 J23 J31 L60 O47 R12 R23
    Date: 2023–01
  16. By: Catia Batista; Ana Beatriz Gomes
    Abstract: Full access to healthcare is an important driver of immigrant integration. Existing literature shows that there are multiple de facto barriers for migrants to access healthcare even when they are legally entitled to them. This paper examines how time since arrival impacts immigrants’ access to healthcare, a novel research question adding to the existing literature on migrant assimilation. We use survey data collected from about 800 Cape Verdean immigrants in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area. The findings show that immigrants do assimilate in terms of access to healthcare. These results are robust when controlling for sample selection.
    Keywords: Migration, Integration, Assimilation, Healthcare, Cape Verde, Portugal
    JEL: O15 F22 J61 I15
    Date: 2022
  17. By: Fjaellegaard Jensen, Mathias; Manning, Alan
    Abstract: On average, children born in Denmark with immigrant parents (first-generation locals) have lower earnings, higher unemployment, less education, more welfare transfers, and more criminal convictions than children with local-born parents. This is different from the US where first-generation locals often have better unconditional outcomes. However, like the US, when we condition on parental socio-economic characteristics, first-generation locals generally perform as well or better than the children of locals. There is little distinctive about being a child of immigrants, other than the fact that they are more likely to come from deprived backgrounds.
    JEL: J15 J61 J62 N34
    Date: 2022–10–17
  18. By: Santos, Indhira; Petroska-Beska, Violeta; Carneiro, Pedro; Eskreis-Winkler, Lauren; Munoz Boudet, Ana Maria; Berneil, Ines; Krekel, Christian; Arias, Omar; Duckworth, Angela
    Abstract: We study whether a particular socio-emotional skill - grit (the ability to sustain effort and interest towards long-term goals) - can be cultivated through a large-scale program, and how this affects student learning. Using a randomized control trial, we evaluate the first nationwide implementation of a low-cost intervention designed to foster grit and self-regulation among sixth and seventh-grade students in primary schools in North Macedonia (about 33, 000 students across 350 schools). The results of this interventions are mixed. Exposed students report improvements in self-regulation, in particular the perseverance-of-effort facet of grit, relative to students in a control condition. Impacts on students are larger when both students and teachers are exposed to the curriculum than when only students are treated. For disadvantaged students, we also find positive impacts on grade point averages, with gains of up to 28 percent of a standard deviation one-year post-treatment. However, while this intervention made students more perseverant and industrious, it reduced the consistency-of-interest facet of grit. This means that exposed students are less able to maintain consistent interests for long periods.
    Keywords: socioemotional skills; grit; GPAs; middle-school students; field experiment; RCT
    JEL: C93 D91 I20
    Date: 2022–10–17
  19. By: Atay, Ata; Mauleon, Ana (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium); Vannetelbosch, Vincent (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium)
    Abstract: We consider priority-based school choice problems with farsighted students. We show that a singleton set consisting of the matching obtained from the Top Trading Cycles (TTC) mechanism is a farsighted stable set. However, the matching obtained from the Deferred Acceptance (DA) mechanism may not belong to any farsighted stable set. Hence, the TTC mechanism provides an assignment that is not only Pareto efficient but also farsightedly stable. Moreover, looking forward three steps ahead is already sufficient for stabilizing the matching obtained from the TTC.
    Keywords: School choice ; top trading cycle ; stable sets ; farsighted students
    JEL: C70 C78
    Date: 2022–11–21
  20. By: Fabian Eckert; John Juneau; Michael Peters
    Abstract: We study the joint process of urbanization and industrialization in the US economy between 1880 and 1940. We show that only a small share of aggregate industrialization is accounted for by the relocation of workers from remote rural areas to industrial hubs like Chicago or New York City. Instead, most sectoral shifts occurred within rural counties, dramatically transforming their sectoral structure. Most industrialization within counties occurred through the emergence of new "factory" cities with notably higher manufacturing shares rather than the expansion of incumbent cities. In contrast, today's shift towards services seems to benefit large incumbent cities the most.
    JEL: E0 R11
    Date: 2023–01
  21. By: Rajashri Chakrabarti; Dan Garcia; Maxim L. Pinkovskiy
    Abstract: To conclude our series, we present disparities in inflation rates by U.S. census region and rural status between June 2019 and the present. Notably, rural households were hit by inflation the hardest during the 2021-22 inflationary episode. This is intuitive, as rural households rely on transportation, and especially on motor fuel, to a much greater extent than urban households do. More generally, the recent rise in inflation has affected households in the South more than the national average, and households in the Northeast by less than the national average, though this difference has decreased in the last few months. Once again, these changes in inflation patterns can be explained by transportation inflation driving a large extent of price rises during 2021 and much of 2022, with housing and food inflation lately coming to the fore.
    Keywords: inflation; inequality; rural areas; census; Regions
    JEL: D63 E31
    Date: 2023–01–18
  22. By: Philippe Coulangeon (CRIS - Centre de recherche sur les inégalités sociales (Sciences Po, CNRS) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Denis Fougère (CRIS - Centre de recherche sur les inégalités sociales (Sciences Po, CNRS) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This article assesses the impact of a two-year long project-based learning program conducted by the National Opera of Paris in a large number of middle schools located in underprivileged areas, aiming at preventing school dropout and tackling educational inequalities by providing disadvantaged students with the opportunity to discover the world of opera. Taking a counterfactual approach (propensity score matching), we measure the impact of participation in the program on final exam and continuous assessment grades. The analysis displays mixed results: a significant and positive impact for the students who participate in the program for its whole duration (two years), at least for continuous assessment scores, but a negative impact for those who leave the program after only one year. The contrast between the effects of full and partial participation in the program suggests that these may be primarily due to a selection effect in favor of the most culturally and socially compliant students, in line with Bourdieu's and Passeron's reproduction theory (1997 [1970]) rather than a mobility effect (DiMaggio, 1982) resulting from the transfer of cultural capital to disadvantaged students.
    Keywords: project-based learning, middle school, statistical matching, mixed method, cultural capital
    Date: 2022
  23. By: Alabrese, Eleanora (University of Warwick); Liberini, Federica (QMUL); Porcelli, Francesco (University of Bari); Redoano, Michela (University of Warwick); Russo, Antonio (University of Sheffield)
    Abstract: We study the provision of information by local governments that supports individual compliance with nationwide regulation, and how this provision relates to the electoral process. We use information about individual mobility (compliance with the lockdown) and Facebook posts by Italian local governments during the Covid 19 pandemic. We show that in municipalities where mayors were up for reelection, local governments provided significantly more covid-related information. This information caused a significant decrease in mobility and excess mortality. However, these effects seem to arise only in the northern regions of the country, where the impact of the pandemic was more severe. JEL Codes: TBD
    Keywords: Covid ; Elections ; Facebook
    Date: 2023
  24. By: Aleksandra Kislenok; Elena Sukhareva (Federal Autonomous Scientific Institution «Eastern State Planning Centre»)
    Abstract: The article presents the results of a comparative assessment of the level of socio-economic development of municipalities in the Far Eastern subjects of the Russian Federation within the framework of a macroregion without considering regional affiliation. On their basis, 215 municipalities (municipal and urban districts) are grouped into three blocks: leading territories, catch-up development territories and lagging (problem) territories. The analysis of the territorial neighborhood of different types of municipalities was conducted.
    Keywords: territorial backwardness, evaluating socio-economic development, municipalities, Far Eastern Macroregion, spatial development
    JEL: P35 P25 O15 O21
    Date: 2022–12
  25. By: Volker, Jamey; Handy, Susan
    Abstract: Building additional roadway capacity—via constructing entirely new roadways or extending or adding lanes to existing roadways—is often proposed as a solution to traffic congestion and even as a way to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The logic for the latter is that increasing roadway capacity increases average vehicle speeds, which improves vehicle fuel efficiency and reduces per-mile emissions of GHGs and local air pollutants. But that logic relies on the flawed assumption that the amount that people drive does not change when the time it takes to drive places changes. In fact, the amount that people drive does respond to changes in driving times. Empirical research demonstrates that as roadway supply increases, vehicle miles traveled (VMT) generally does, too. This is the “induced travel” effect—a net increase in VMT across the roadway network due to an increase in roadway capacity, which ultimately erodes any initial increases in travel speeds and causes increased GHG emissions. Researchers at the University of California, Davis reviewed the empirical research on induced travel to understand the likely effects of adding roadway capacity in a variety of contexts. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Calculators, Traffic forecasting, Travel demand, Vehicle miles of travel
    Date: 2023–01–01
  26. By: Luiz de Mello (OECD, Economics Department); Jo‹o Tovar Jalles (Instituto Superior de Economia e Gest‹o (ISEG), Universidade de Lisboa)
    Abstract: The subnational governments, at the regional and local levels, play an important role in the prevention, management and recovery from natural disasters and pandemics/epidemics. These jurisdictions are responsible for issuing and monitoring compliance with several aspects of regulation that are essential for risk prevention, including land use and construction codes; for providing frontline services that are crucial for effective crisis management, including health care, civil protection, and public order and safety; and for rebuilding lost or damaged physical infrastructure in the recovery phase. This paper provides empirical evidence based on impulse response functions that the occurrence of natural disasters and the outbreak of pandemics/epidemics are associated with an increase in the subnational shares of government spending and revenue in the years following these shocks. These decentralisation effects vary according to specific shocks and are conditional on the business cycle: they tend to be stronger when the shocks materialise during cyclical expansions.
    Date: 2023–01
  27. By: Santamaria, Marta (University of Warwick.); Ventura, Jaume (CREI, Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Barcelona School of Economics.); Yesilbayraktar, Ugur (Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Barcelona School of Economics)
    Abstract: We use the new dataset of trade flows across 269 European regions in 24 countries constructed in Santamaría et al. (2020) to systematically explore for the first time trade patterns within and across country borders. We focus on the differences between home trade, country trade and foreign trade. We document the following facts : (i) European regional trade has a strong home and country bias, (ii) geographic distance and national borders are important determinants of regional trade, but cannot explain the strong regional home bias and (iii) the home bias is heterogeneous across regions and seems to be driven by political regional borders.
    Date: 2023
  28. By: Maimuna Ibraimo; Eva-Maria Egger
    Abstract: Internal migration plays an important role in the economic development of individuals, their families, and their country. This study describes Mozambique's most common migration patterns from 1992 until 2017 using data from three population censuses. We focus on the most important moves between regions, provinces, and rural and urban areas. Further, we document the characteristics of migrants to assess selection patterns. In the final step, we estimate the relationship between migration and multidimensional poverty by applying inverse probability weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA).
    Keywords: Internal migration, Migration, Mozambique, Poverty, Regression analysis
    Date: 2023
  29. By: Julien Combe (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, X - École polytechnique); Olivier Tercieux (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Camille Terrier (UNIL - Université de Lausanne = University of Lausanne, CEP - LSE - Centre for Economic Performance - LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR, CESifo - CESifo)
    Abstract: To assign teachers to schools, a modified version of the well-known deferred acceptance mechanism has been proposed in the literature and is used in practice. We show that this mechanism fails to be fair and efficient for both teachers and schools. We identify a class of strategy-proof mechanisms that cannot be improved upon in terms of both efficiency and fairness. Using a rich dataset on teachers' applications in France, we estimate teachers preferences and perform a counterfactual analysis. The results show that these mechanisms perform much better than the modified version of deferred acceptance. For instance, the number of teachers moving from their positions more than triples under our mechanism.
    Date: 2022–11
  30. By: Catia Batista; Rita Neves
    Abstract: Immigrant integration is an inherently stressful process that implies psychological challenges. To moderate the impact of the post-migration stressors, social support may play an important role. Using survey data on recently arrived Cape-Verdean migrants in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area, we analyse the role of both destination and home social networks on migrants’ mental health. We find that destination networks significantly reduce overall anxiety and female migrants’ emotional distress. However, larger home networks lead to an increase in overall anxiety and are associated with poorer mental health indicators for female migrants, who may be subject to larger pressure to send financial remittances back home. However, home networks have a positive effect in reducing male migrants’ emotional distress.
    Keywords: International migration, Immigration, Mental health, Social networks, Gender, Cape-Verde, Portugal
    Date: 2022
  31. By: Garbarino, Nicola (Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich and Ifo Institute for Economic Research); Guin, Benjamin (Bank of England); Lee, Jonathan (University of Glasgow)
    Abstract: Subsidised insurance against extreme weather events improves its affordability among households in high-risk areas but it can weaken the risk signal via property prices. Leveraging a granular data set of all property transactions and flooding in England, we study the effects of a reinsurance scheme which lowers insurance premiums for at-risk properties. We document that the introduction of this scheme increases prices and transaction volumes of flood-prone properties. This fully offsets the negative direct effects of flooding on property prices, with high-income areas and high-value properties benefiting relatively more. Our findings speak to the debate on transition risk and wealth redistribution in response to public interventions addressing climate change.
    Keywords: House prices; flood risk; flood insurance; climate risks
    JEL: G21 Q54
    Date: 2022–09–30
  32. By: Catia Batista; Jules Gazeaud; Julia Seither
    Abstract: International migration can contribute importantly to sustainable economic growth. The effects of migration for both origin and host countries, however, depend on immigrant integration. We experimentally evaluate the impact of information and migrants’ aspirations on immigrant integration using a field experiment among Cape Verdean immigrants in Portugal. The interventions promote integration outcomes such as migration status regularization and better quality employment of migrants. They furthermore affect those left behind. While the impact on material remittances is muted, targeting migrant integration barriers improves democratic processes and attitudes over gender equity in origin countries. In addition, providing immigrants with better information sources about integration processes affects migration intentions and expectations of prospective migrants.
    Keywords: Irregular migration, Integration, Remittances, Field experiment
    JEL: O12 O15 F22
    Date: 2022
  33. By: Shaheen, Susan; Cohen, Adam; Gosselin, Kate; Broader, Jacquelyn
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2022–11–01
  34. By: Pedro Luis Silva (Centre for Research in Higher Education Policies, School of Economics and Management (FEP); and IZA Institute of Labor Economics); Carla Sá (NIPE/Center for Research in Economics and Management, University of Minho; and Centre for Research in Higher Education Policies (CIPES)); Ricardo Biscaia (Centre for Research in Higher Education Policies (CIPES), Portugal; and School of Economics and Management (FEP), University of Porto, Portugal); Pedro N. Teixeira (Centre for Research in Higher Education Policies (CIPES), Portugal and School of Economics and Management (FEP), University of Porto, Portugal and IZA Institute of Labor Economics, Germany)
    Abstract: Students are admitted into higher education based on their past performance.This paper compares two measures of past cognitive skills: teacher and national exam scores. By using a nationwide dataset, we look at how the predictive power of teacher assessment and exam scores for selecting successful students may vary with the degree of selectivity of higher education programmes. We find that teacher scores predict students’ performance in higher education more accurately, and its predictive power remains the same independently of the selectivity programme indicator considered. We found that national exam scores are noisier and only gain relevance for highly selective programmes. Furthermore, we explore national exams’ volatility and institutional selectivity as potential mechanisms to justify the results. Our results provide solid policy hints on the role that high school scores and admission exams should have for access and performance in higher education.
    Keywords: Admission Exams; Teacher Scores; Higher Education; Selectivity.
    JEL: I23 I21 I20 J24
    Date: 2022
  35. By: Simone Bertoli; Morgane Laouenan; Jérôme Valette
    Abstract: We provide evidence that Hispanic citizens receive significantly longer sentences than non-Hispanic citizens in the Federal Criminal Justice System in the United States when a higher number of illegal aliens are apprehended along the southwest border. Apprehensions can increase the salience of Hispanic ethnic identity, which is associated with persistent negative stereotypes, and can also deteriorate attitudes toward Hispanics. We rule out concerns that apprehensions might convey legally relevant information to judges. Thus, we provide direct evidence for time-varying discrimination toward Hispanic defendants. Our estimated effect is only at play for defendants without a heavy previous criminal record.
    Keywords: Immigration;Ethnic Identity;Discrimination;Attitudes;Salience;Sentences
    JEL: K42 J15 F22
    Date: 2023–01
  36. By: Milene Tessarin; Deyu Li; Sergio Petralia; Ron Boschma
    Abstract: In this report we evaluate the opportunities for regional diversification in Europe over the last decade. We use microdata from the European Labour Force Survey to empirically test the entry and exit of occupational specializations at the regional level. Our results show that NUTS 2 regions are more likely to diversify into new occupations that are related to their existing local labour markets. So, the new opportunities for diversification are path-dependent, that is, they depend on the previous (occupational) production structure of the regions. Relatedness is especially important for diversifying toward complex occupations, thus increasing the potential economic benefits of the regions. However, there are significant regional heterogeneities in this related diversification process. Relatedness is positively associated with occupational specialization, but it loses strength as GDP per capita increases among European regions. Finally, we point out some policy orientations that can guide the paths of occupational diversification for European regions.
    Date: 2023–01
  37. By: Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M.; Roth, Duncan; Seidel, Tobias
    Abstract: We develop a quantitative spatial model with heterogeneous firms and a monopsonistic labour market to derive minimum wages that maximize employment or welfare. Quantifying the model for German micro regions, we find that the German minimum wage, set at 48% of the national mean wage, has increased aggregate worker welfare by about 2.1% at the cost or reducing employment by about 0.3%. The welfare-maximizing federal minimum wage, at 60% of the national mean wage, would increase aggregate worker welfare by 4%, but reduce employment by 5.6%. An employment-maximizing regional wage, set at 50% of the regional mean wage, would achieve a similar aggregate welfare effect and increase employment by 1.1%.
    Keywords: general equilibrium; minimum wage; monopsony; employment; Germany; inequality
    JEL: J31 J58 R12
    Date: 2022–01–20
  38. By: Lee, Won Bok (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade)
    Abstract: We are now in the midst of a major transformation called the Fourth Industrial Revolution and related technologies and industries are rapidly developing and converging, bringing about great changes throughout the industrial ecosystem. However, as response measures to the 4IR are mainly designed at the central government level, regional responses are insufficient considering demand for changes in local industries and regional innovation systems. Therefore, in order to receive budgetary support from the central government, local governments have not properly evaluated the capacity of the regions in which they reside, and only major 4IR issues are discovered and presented. The role of the region is very important in enhancing national competitiveness and growing into a leading country through the 4IR. In an era of decentralization, regions have been forced to better plan and implement policies that address issues previously considered to be under the purview of the central government, such as population cliffs, job creation, and securing future growth engines. In order to reduce policy trial and error and maximize the effects of 4IR response policies, it is necessary to accurately grasp the current status of related technologies and industries, improve regional competitiveness and reduce the possibility of worsening regional imbalances. This paper seeks to grasp the current status of technologies and industries related to the 4IR, analyze current conditions in consideration of regional characteristics and capabilities, and propose appropriate response measures.
    Keywords: Industry 4.0; Fourth Industrial Revolution; 4IR; innovation; regional innovation; Korea
    JEL: O35 R11
    Date: 2021–12–01
  39. By: Bernard, Andrew B.; Zi, Yuan
    Abstract: Firm-to-firm connections in domestic and international production networks play a fundamental role in economic outcomes. Firm heterogeneity and the sparse nature of firm-to-firm connections implicitly discipline network structure. We find that a large group of well-established statistical relationships are not useful in improving our understanding of production networks. We propose an "elementary" model for production networks based on random matching and firm heterogeneity and characterize the families of statistics and data generating processes that may raise underidentification concerns in more complex models. The elementary model is a useful benchmark in developing "instructive" statistics and informing model construction and selection.
    Keywords: firm-to-firm networks; model selection; balls-and-bias; buyer-seller matching; underidentification
    JEL: F11 F14
    Date: 2022–10–17
  40. By: Holm, Mathilde Lund; Fallesen, Peter (ROCKWOOL Foundation); Heinesen, Eskil
    Abstract: This study provides evidence on the immediate and long-term effects of parental separation and union dissolution on children’s test scores. We use administrative full population data on parents moving out of the joint home and national school-administered low-stakes test. First, a staggered event-study design finds long-term negative effects on test scores with indications of a dynamic effect increasing by time since separation. Results hold when applying recent innovation in difference-in-differences methods. Further, the decline in test scores originates from the middle of the skill distribution. Second, we demonstrate plausible indications of an immediate negative effect of parental separation on children’s test scores using a regression discontinuity design, with the difference in time between test date and parental separation as the running variable.
    Date: 2023–01–14
  41. By: Sofia Amaral; Gordon B. Dahl; Victoria Endl-Geyer; Timo Hener; Helmut Rainer
    Abstract: There is a vigorous debate on whether arrests for domestic violence (DV) will deter future abuse or create a retaliatory backlash. We study how arrests affect the dynamics of DV using administrative data for over 124, 000 DV emergency calls (999 calls) for West Midlands, the second most populous county in England. We take advantage of conditional random assignment of officers to a case by call handlers, combined with systematic differences across police officers in their propensity to arrest suspected batterers. We find that an arrest reduces future DV calls in the ensuing year by 51%. This reduction is not driven by reduced reporting due to fear of retaliation, but instead a decline in repeat victimization. We reach this conclusion based on a threshold reporting model and its testable implications regarding (i) the severity of repeat DV calls and (ii) victim versus third-party reporting. Exploring mechanisms, we find that arrest virtually eliminates the large spike in re-victimization which occurs in the 48 hours after a call, consistent with arrest facilitating a cooling off period during a volatile, at-risk time. In the longer run, we estimate a sizeable deterrence effect. Substantiating this, arrest increases the probability an offender is charged with a crime. Our findings suggest that if the goal is to lower the number of domestic violence incidents, police should lower their threshold for arrest, not decriminalize domestic violence.
    JEL: J12 J16 K42
    Date: 2023–01
  42. By: Mayer, Maximilian
    Abstract: This paper studies the role of social connections in shaping individuals' concerns about climate change. I combine granular climate data, region-level social network data and survey responses for 24 European countries in order to document large information spillovers. Individuals become more concerned about climate change when their geographically distant friends living in sociallyconnected regions have experienced large increases in temperatures since 1990. Exploring the heterogeneity of the spillover effects, I uncover that the learning via social networks plays a central role. Further, results illustrate the important role of social values and economic preferences for understanding how information spillovers affect individual concerns.
    Keywords: beliefs, climate change, information spillovers, social networks
    JEL: D01 D62 D64 D8 Q5
    Date: 2023
  43. By: Glenn Rayp; Ilse Ruyssen; Samuel Standaert (-)
    Abstract: This paper introduces a new set of comprehensive and cross-country-comparable indexes of migration policy selectivity. Crucially, these reflect the multidimensional nature of the differential treatment of migrants. We use these indexes to study the evolution of migration policy selectivity and estimate how they affect migration flows. Combining all publicly available and relevant data since WWII, we build three composite indexes that identify selectivity in terms of skills, economic resources and nationality. First, we use these to characterise migration policies in 42 countries between 1990 and 2014. Second, we analyse the effectiveness of migration policy selectivity by estimating its impact on migration flows. Each of the three dimensions of selectivity is found to affect the size and structure of migration flows significantly.
    Keywords: Migration Policy, International Migration, Selectivity, Effectiveness
    JEL: F22 C43 P16 C32
    Date: 2023–01
  44. By: Resce, Giuliano; Vaquero-Piñeiro, Cristina
    Abstract: We investigate the role of local favoritism in the Geographical Indications (GIs) quality scheme, one of the main pillars of agri-food policy in the EU. Taking advantage of a rich and unique municipalities' geo-referenced database over the 2000-2020 period, we evaluate whether the birthplaces of Regional council members are favored in the acknowledgment of GIs in Italy. To address the potential confounding effects and selection biases, we combine a Difference in Difference strategy with machine learning methods for counterfactual analysis. Results reveal that councilors' birth municipalities are more likely to obtain their products certified as GIs. The birth town bias is more substantial in areas where the level of institutional quality is lower, there is higher corruption, and lower government efficiency, suggesting that the mediation of politicians is determinant where the formal standardized procedures are muddled.
    Keywords: Political Economy; Geographical Indications; Political representation; Electoral success; Local Development.
    JEL: D72 L66 Q18 R11
    Date: 2023–02–07
  45. By: Gaurab Aryal; Dennis J. Campbell; Federico Ciliberto; Ekaterina A. Khmelnitskaya
    Abstract: In the US airline industry, independent regional carriers fly passengers on behalf of different national airlines, giving rise to $\textit{common subcontracting}$. On the one hand, we find that subcontracting is associated with lower prices, confirming the accepted notion that regional airlines can fly passengers at lower costs. On the other hand, we find that $\textit{common}$ subcontracting is associated with higher prices. These two countervailing effects suggest that the growth of regional carriers can have anticompetitive implications for the airline industry. In line with the literature, we continue to find that multimarket contact among national airlines is associated with higher prices.
    Date: 2023–01
  46. By: Volker, Jamey; Handy, Susan
    Abstract: Expanding roadway capacity often leads to commensurate increases vehicle miles traveled (VMT). This is the “induced travel” effect—a net increase in VMT across the roadway network due to an increase in roadway capacity. This increase in VMT erodes any initial reduction in congestion and causes increased greenhouse gas and local air pollutant emissions. Yet highway expansion projects continue to be proposed across the US, often using congestion relief—and sometimes greenhouse gas reductions— as a justification for adding lanes. The existence of these rosy projections about highway expansion projects indicates that the induced travel effect is often not fully accounted for in travel demand models or in the environmental review process for the projects, as prior research has shown.1 With these problems in mind, researchers at the University of California, Davis developed and launched an online tool in 2019—the NCST Induced Travel Calculator—to help agencies estimate the VMT induced annually by adding lanes to major roadways in California’s urbanized counties. With Calculator use increasing, the UC Davis researchers initiated a project to update the Calculator and improve its functionality based on recent data and empirical research. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Calculators, Traffic forecasting, Travel demand, Vehicle miles of travel
    Date: 2023–01–01
  47. By: Hristina Gaydarska (Center for iPS Cell Research and Applicaton, Kyoto University, JAPAN); Miwa Matsuo (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN)
    Abstract: This paper evaluates transitions in gender differences and parenthood penalties in the chance of business travel, focusing on variations by occupation and technology usage. Although literature documents that women and parents of small children are substantially less likely to travel for business, particularly long ones, little research has explored changes in the gap. Moreover, not much attention has been given to whether they vary by business travel distance, occupation, or technology adaptations. This study analyzes domestic intra-regional business travel likelihood by different distance thresholds, using three U.S. National Household Travel Surveys from 2001 to 2017. By employing the Probit model, our analysis finds narrowing gender gaps and parenthood penalties in business mobility, thanks to the shrinking travel needs. Internet-savvy workers, in particular, experienced narrower gender gaps, especially among those without small children. The conditional prediction suggests a disappearing gender gap and parenthood gap for the sales and service workers, even for trips over 50 miles per day. Contrary, the gender gap in business mobility among the professional and managerial workers persistently remained in 2017 for long-distance trips. The declining trend in the gender gap and parenthood penalty for the business travel likelihood is a vital sign for reducing inequalities and work-life balances.
    Keywords: Business travel; Gender gap; Internet (non) savvy; ICT development
    JEL: R4 J16
    Date: 2023–02
  48. By: Gordon H. Hanson
    Abstract: Society’s transition toward more sustainable energy sources is well underway. But substantially reducing the use of fossil fuels to generate electricity, to power vehicles, and to manufacture the stuff of everyday life will profoundly disrupt the communities that currently dedicate themselves to carbon-intensive industries. In this paper, I consider the potential for adverse labor market consequences from the energy transition and the suitability of existing policies to counteract them. Top of mind in this discussion is to avoid repeating the painful adjustment to globalization and automation, which in recent decades brought concentrated job loss and long-lasting economic distress to local labor markets that had been specialized in manufacturing. I begin by mapping the spatial distribution of employment in fossil-fuel-intensive activities across US commuting zones from 2000 forward. Then, using the labor market consequences of the post-1980 decline of coal as a backdrop, I discuss policy options for easing adjustment to the energy transition, including letting market forces work, reinforcing the social safety net, and expanding place-based policies.
    JEL: J6 Q3
    Date: 2023–01
  49. By: Lorenzo Caliendo; Luca David Opromolla; Fernando Parro; Alessandro Sforza
    Abstract: European countries experienced a large increase in labor supply due to the influx of Ukrainian refugees after the 2022 Russia invasion. We study its dynamic effects in a spatial model with forward-looking households of different skills, trade, and endogenous capital accumulation. We find that real GDP increases in Europe in the long term, with large distributional effects across countries and skill groups. In the short run, an increase in the supply of labor strains the use of capital structures that takes time to build. Over time, countries that build capital structures increase output, resulting in potential long run benefits.
    JEL: F1 F16
    Date: 2023–01
  50. By: Hurtado, Agustin; Sakong, Jung
    Abstract: We study the effect of racial minority bank ownership on minority credit access. Using new data for 87 million minority borrowers, we present four main findings. First, minority-owned banks specialize in same-race mortgage lending. Over 70 percent of their mortgages go to borrowers of bank owners' same race. Second, the effect of minority bank ownership on minority credit is large and exceeds that of minority loan officers. We find that minority borrowers applying for mortgages in banks whose owners are of the same minority group are nine percentage points more likely to be approved than minority borrowers in non-minority banks. This effect is over six times that of a minority loan officer. Third, the default rate of minority banks' same-race borrowers is much lower than that of otherwise-identical borrowers of other races, and Asian banks drive this difference. Fourth, evidence from plausibly exogenous bank collapses suggests that the effect of Asian bank ownership might reflect an expansion rather than a reallocation of credit to Asian borrowers. Our findings are consistent with minority bank ownership reducing information frictions and improving credit allocations.
    Date: 2022
  51. By: Bernardus F Nazar Van Doornik; Armando Gomes; David Schoenherr; Janis Skrastins
    Abstract: We assess the employment and income effects of access to credit dedicated to investment in individual mobility by exploiting time-series variation in access to credit through random lotteries for participants in a group-lending mechanism in Brazil. We find that access to credit for investment in individual mobility increases formal employment rates and salaries, yielding an annual rate of return of 12 percent. Consistent with a geographically broader job search, individuals transition to jobs farther from home and public transportation. Our results suggest that accessing distant labor markets through credit for investment in individual mobility yields high and persistent returns.
    Keywords: access to credit, household finance, labor mobility, spatial mismatch
    JEL: D14 G23 J62 R20 R23
    Date: 2023–01
  52. By: Otterby, Dawn; Crawley, Andrew; Gabe, Todd
    Abstract: This study investigates the impacts of the minimum wage on U.S. regional labor markets. The empirical analysis uses panel data covering ten years and (most) U.S. counties to examine the relationship between the minimum wage and several key components of the labor market. Following past research, we use data on the number of people in the labor force to represent labor supply, but—as an extension to the literature—we use job postings data as a measure of labor demand. Consistent with previous studies, our findings show a positive relationship between the number of people in the labor force and a county’s minimum wage. The results, however, show that the relationship between job postings and the minimum wage is not statistically significant in the full-sample analysis of U.S. counties. Additional analyses also suggest that metropolitan and urban labor markets react differently to changes in the minimum wage when compared to their non-metropolitan and rural counterparts.
    Keywords: Minimum Wage, U.S. Counties, Job Postings
    JEL: J38 J64 R11 R50
    Date: 2023–01–20
  53. By: D. Mark Anderson; Yang Liang; Joseph J. Sabia
    Abstract: Using data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System for the period 1983-1997, Cohen and Einav (Review of Economics and Statistics 2003; 85(4): 828–843) found that mandatory seatbelt laws were associated with a 4 to 6 percent reduction in traffic fatalities among motor vehicle occupants. After successfully replicating their two-way fixed effects estimates, we (1) add 22 years of data (1998-2019) to capture additional seatbelt policy variation and observe a longer post-treatment period, (2) employ the interaction-weighted estimator proposed by Sun and Abraham (2021) to address potential bias due to heterogeneous and dynamic treatment effects, and (3) estimate event-study models to investigate pre-treatment trends and explore lagged post-treatment effects. Consistent with Cohen and Einav (2003), our updated estimates show that primary seatbelt laws are associated with a 5 to 9 percent reduction in fatalities among motor vehicle occupants. Estimated effects of secondary seatbelt laws are smaller in magnitude and sensitive to model choice.
    JEL: I12 K32 K42
    Date: 2023–01
  54. By: Einiö, Elias; Feng, Josh; Jaravel, Xavier
    Abstract: Innovators are intrinsically-motivated individuals who use ideas to create new goods and services. This raises the possibility that their social backgrounds may affect the direction of their innovative activity. Consistent with this "social push" channel, we document that innovators create products that are more likely to be purchased by customers similar to them along observable dimensions including gender, age, and socioeconomic status, both across and within detailed industries. Next, we provide causal evidence that social experience affects the direction of a person's innovative activity. Specifically, being exposed to peers from a lower-income group increases an entrepreneur's propensity to create necessity products, without affecting her rates of entrepreneurship and entrepreneurial income. We incorporate this channel into a general equilibrium model to assess its implications for cost-of-living inequality and long-run growth when there is unequal access to the innovation system.
    Keywords: innovators social background; social push
    JEL: R14 J01 L81 J1
    Date: 2022–07–13
  55. By: Cevat Giray Aksoy; Jose Maria Barrero; Nicholas Bloom; Steven J. Davis; Mathias Dolls; Pablo Zarate
    Abstract: We quantify the commute time savings associated with work from home, drawing on data for 27 countries. The average daily time savings when working from home is 72 minutes in our sample. We estimate that work from home saved about two hours per week per worker in 2021 and 2022, and that it will save about one hour per week per worker after the pandemic ends. Workers allocate 40 percent of their time savings to their jobs and about 11 percent to caregiving activities. People living with children allocate more of their time savings to caregiving.
    JEL: D10 J22 L23 R41
    Date: 2023–01
  56. By: João Cerejeira (NIPE/Center for Research in Economics and Management, University of Minho, Portugal; and CIPES – Centre for Research in Higher Education Policies); Rita Sousa (NIPE/Center for Research in Economics and Management, University of Minho, Portugal); Carolina Bernardo (University of Minho, Portugal); António Bento-Gonçalves (CECS – Communication and Society Research Centre, University of Minho)
    Abstract: Fire intensity and size incite visitation decrease and recreational losses, relevant tourism variables for European economies. As a result of climate change, this reality is becoming more evident. Due to significant gaps in analyzing the relationship between wildfires and tourism demand, this paper aims to explain how tourism demand reacts to wildfires in Portugal. We use a novel approach in these studies and estimate a spatial econometric model to analyze the relationship between total burned areas and overnight stays in a touristic establishment in a given municipality and its neighbouring municipalities. Our results show that wildfires negatively affect the overnight stays in the same location but also cause spillover effects in neighbouring municipalities. Also, the wildfire occurrences are positively related to the number of overnight stays after three months, suggesting a delay in tourism activities.
    Keywords: tourism, wildfires, spatial econometrics
    JEL: O13 Q54 Q56 L83
    Date: 2023
  57. By: Boto-Garcia, David; Leoni, Veronica
    Abstract: Despite volcanic eruptions are among the most detrimental phenomena for tourism activities, few studies have explored their effects on tourism arrivals. This study investigates the dynamic effects of Cumbre Vieja eruption (La Palma Island, Spain) on domestic tourism demand at the municipal level. By exploring mobile-phone geo-position data in a quasi-experimental setting, we analyse the variation in local, peninsular and domestic tourists in La Palma municipalities as compared to non-treated municipalities in other islands in the Canary Archipelago after the eruption. Our event study estimates point to an average drop of about 41% in domestic tourism during the eruption, with a further decrease of around 55% in the following four months. Our findings offer valuable insights about island tourism-dependent economies’ resilience to natural disasters.
    Date: 2022
  58. By: Jerg Gutmann; Léa Marchal; Betül Simsek
    Abstract: This is the first global study of how institutionally entrenched gender discrimination affects the gender migration gap (GMG) using data on 158 origin and 37 destination countries over the period 1961-2019. We estimate a gravity equation derived from a random utility maximization model of migration that accounts for migrants’ gender. Instrumental variable estimates indicate that increasing gender equality in economic or political rights generally deepens the GMG, i.e., it reduces female emigration relative to that of men. In line with our theoretical model, this average effect is driven by higher-income countries. In contrast, increased gender equality in rights reduces the GMG in lower-income countries by facilitating female emigration.
    Keywords: discrimination, gender equality, individual rights, migration, RUM model
    JEL: F22 J16 J71 K38 O15 P48
    Date: 2023
  59. By: Eiji Yamamura; Yoshiro Tsutsui; Fumio Ohtake
    Abstract: Education plays a critical role on promoting preventive behaviours against the spread of pandemics. In Japan, hand-washing education in primary schools was positively correlated with preventive behaviours against COVID-19 transmission for adults in 2020 during the early stages of COVID-19 [1]. The following year, the Tokyo Olympics were held in Japan, and a state of emergency was declared several times. Public perceptions of and risks associated with the pandemic changed drastically with the emergence of COVID-19 vaccines. We re-examine whether effect of hand-washing education on preventive behaviours persisted by covering a longer period of the COVID-19 pandemic than previous studies. 26 surveys were conducted nearly once a month for 30 months from March 2020 (the early stage of COVID-19) to September 2022 in Japan. By corresponding with the same individuals across surveys, we comprehensively gathered data on preventive behaviours during this period. In addition, we asked about hand-washing education they had received in their primary school. We used the data to investigate how and the degree to which school education is associated with pandemic mitigating preventive behaviours. We found that hand-washing education in primary school is positively associated with behaviours such as hand washing and mask wearing as a COVID-19 preventive measure, but not related to staying at home. We observed a statistically significant difference in hand washing between adults who received childhood hand-washing education and those who did not. This difference persisted throughout the study period. In comparison, the difference in mask wearing between the two groups was smaller, but still statistically significant. Furthermore, there was no difference in staying at home between them.
    Date: 2023–01
  60. By: Bernard Deschamps; Michael Bourdeau-Brien; Mathieu Boudreault (University of Toronto)
    Abstract: Flood-related losses are on the rise in Canada and private insurance remains costly or unavailable in high-risk areas. Despite the introduction of overland flood insurance in 2015, following the federal government’s invitation to the insurance industry to participate in flood risk-sharing, federal and provincial disaster financial assistance programs still cover a large portion of these costs. As the risks increase, governments are questioning the sustainability of using taxpayers’ money to finance such losses, leaving municipalities with significant residual risk. The growing number of people and assets occupying flood-prone areas, including public infrastructure, has contributed to the sharp increase in flood damage costs. Based on a literature review and discussions with experts, this paper describes the municipal role in flood-risk management, and shows how provincial and federal financial assistance to municipalities for flood damage in British Columbia and Québec may be counterproductive in fostering flood-risk management at the municipal level. We conclude that municipalities can play a more proactive role in incorporating risk reduction as the key objective of disaster financial assistance and propose three specific policy instruments to help reduce the growing number of people living in flood zones: flood mapping, land-use planning, and the relocation of high-risk properties.
    Keywords: risk governance, policy instruments, disaster financial assistance, land-use planning, flood-risk mapping
    JEL: H77 Q54 R11
    Date: 2023–02
  61. By: Batabyal, Amitrajeet; Yoo, Seung Jick
    Abstract: We analyze interregional competition between two regions A and B that use taxes to attract a representative creative class member (the entrepreneur). This entrepreneur establishes a firm in either region A or B and this action guarantees her profit. However, if the entrepreneur locates in region A then she also obtains a stochastic, location-specific rent that is either high with positive probability or low with positive complementary probability. In this setting, we accomplish three tasks. First, given values of the two tax rates, we determine the payoff to the entrepreneur in the two regions for the two possible values of the location-specific rent in A. Second, we ascertain when the entrepreneur will locate in A for both values of the rent and when she will locate in B. Finally, we compute the tax rate that B will set and then specify a condition which ensures that the entrepreneur locates in B.
    Keywords: Creative Class, Entrepreneur, Interregional Competition, Region-Specific Rent, Tax
    JEL: H25 R11
    Date: 2022–11–10
  62. By: Félix Adisson (LATTS - Laboratoire Techniques, Territoires et Sociétés - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Gustave Eiffel); Ludovic Halbert (LATTS - Laboratoire Techniques, Territoires et Sociétés - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Gustave Eiffel)
    Abstract: Inspired by Streeck's consolidation state theory, this paper develops a theoretical framework of the restructuring of the state in late-stage financialized capitalism. It observes how in Italy, an emblematic consolidation state, the use of public real estate investment funds supports assetization, that is how state properties are gradually transformed into financial assets via multilevel and multi-sector politics of public assets. As it explores the institutional and material rearrangements underpinning the restructuring of the Italian state, the paper shows how permanent austerity and financialization mutually reinforce each other, with the result that state organizations internalize a financial investor's viewpoint, while statecraft increasingly rely on financial actors, instruments and capital. The conclusion discusses how this theoretical framework can be extended beyond Italy and to other public assets.
    Keywords: financialization, austerity, assetization, state, real estate, Italy
    Date: 2022
  63. By: Bing Su; Fukang Zhu; Ke Zhu
    Abstract: The spatial dependence in mean has been well studied by plenty of models in a large strand of literature, however, the investigation of spatial dependence in variance is lagging significantly behind. The existing models for the spatial dependence in variance are scarce, with neither probabilistic structure nor statistical inference procedure being explored. To circumvent this deficiency, this paper proposes a new generalized logarithmic spatial heteroscedasticity model with exogenous variables (denoted by the log-SHE model) to study the spatial dependence in variance. For the log-SHE model, its spatial near-epoch dependence (NED) property is investigated, and a systematic statistical inference procedure is provided, including the maximum likelihood and generalized method of moments estimators, the Wald, Lagrange multiplier and likelihood-ratio-type D tests for model parameter constraints, and the overidentification test for the model diagnostic checking. Using the tool of spatial NED, the asymptotics of all proposed estimators and tests are established under regular conditions. The usefulness of the proposed methodology is illustrated by simulation results and a real data example on the house selling price.
    Date: 2023–01
  64. By: Gibbons, Stephen; Hilber, Christian A. L.
    Abstract: The years after the election of the UK's coalition government in 2010 saw a decline in central funding to local government and a fall in expenditure on a range of local services, including social services. These cuts were backed by a theory that individuals in the community would step in with voluntary action (the 'Big Society') to fill the void left by withdrawal of public support, a specific case of the argument that government activity crowds-out that of private individuals. This paper asks to what extent this vision materialised. Using a large panel survey of individuals linked to detailed local government income and spending data for the period from 2008/9 until 2016/7 we estimate the effect of local public services spending and central government funding on individual caring, voluntary and charitable behaviour. We find some evidence of an association between Local Authority (LA) expenditure cuts and increases in voluntary activity and charitable giving in the area. Using central government funding cuts as an exogenous source of variation in LA spending, we find no effects on any aspects of individual caring, voluntary or charitable action. Overall, we find little support for the proposition that (cutting) public sector spending crowds out (increases) individual philanthropic activities.
    Keywords: public spending; social care; charitable giving; crowding out hypothesis; Big Society
    JEL: D64 H50 I11 I30 N30
    Date: 2022–10–10
  65. By: Aleksei Novitskii; Ilya Shevchenko (Federal Autonomous Scientific Institution «Eastern State Planning Centre»)
    Abstract: The current state and main trends in the development of tax and non-tax revenues of the consolidated budgets of the regions in the Russian Far East are considered. The structure of tax and non-tax budget revenues by types of taxes and types of economic activity is given. An assessment of the real growth rates of budget revenues in the regions of the Russian Far East for the periods 2013-2021 and 2019-2021 is given. The factors that negatively affected the volume of budget revenues are considered, such as the growth of tax expenses due to expansion of preferential taxation regimes, and the reduction in the share of tax revenues credited to regional budgets. An assessment of the volume and structure of tax revenues received by the federal budget from the territory of the Russian Far East is given.
    Keywords: budget system, consolidated budget, regional budget revenues, tax revenues, russian far east
    JEL: E62 H75 H76
    Date: 2022–12
  66. By: Moshe Buchinsky (UCLA - University of California [Los Angeles] - UC - University of California, NBER - National Bureau of Economic Research [New York] - NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research, ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Chemi Gotlibovski (MTA - The Academic College of Tel Aviv-Yaffo); Osnat Lifshitz (Reichman University [Herzliya])
    Abstract: We estimated two dynamic programing models, one for men and one for women, on a sample of immigrants who arrived in Israel from the Former Soviet Union (FSU) between 1989 and 1995. Following the literature, we assume that the household maximizes its expected utility based only on the husband's human capital. Therefore, the family's residential location decision is based on the husband's labor market opportunities. We study the potential effect of this assumed behavior on the labor market's gender gaps. In the model estimated for men, we endogenize the decisions regarding residential location, employment location, and occupational choices. In contrast, in the model estimated for women the family's residential location is taken as given. Using the estimated parameters from the two models and a number of counterfactual simulations, we are able to decompose the observed gender wage gap into two parts–one based on behavioral differences and the other based on the lower labor market returns for women. The simulations indicate that if women had the same labor market returns and the same preferences as men, their outcomes would have been similar to those of men. Moreover, the simulations show that even without any changes in their labor market conditions, women would have gained in terms of both job quality and wages if the family's residential location was based on their human capital.
    Keywords: Family migration, Gender wage gap, Household Labor Supply, Residential Location
    Date: 2023
  67. By: Eugen Dimant; Michele Gelfand; Anna Hochleitner; Silvia Sonderegger
    Abstract: Descriptive norms – the behavior of other individuals in one’s reference group – play a key role in shaping individual decisions. When characterizing the behavior of others, a standard approach in the literature is to focus on average behavior. In this paper, we argue both theoretically and empirically that not only averages but also the shape of the whole distribution of behavior can play a crucial role in how people react to descriptive norms. Using a representative sample of the U.S. population, we experimentally investigate how individuals react to strategic environments that are characterized by different distributions of behavior, focusing on the distinction between tight (i.e., characterized by low behavioral variance), loose (i.e., characterized by high behavioral variance), and polarized (i.e., characterized by u-shaped behavior) environments. We find that individuals indeed strongly respond to differences in the variance and shape of the descriptive norm they are facing: loose norms generate greater behavioral variance and polarization generates polarized responses. In polarized environments, most individuals prefer extreme actions – which expose them to considerable strategic risk – to intermediate actions that minimize such risk. Importantly, we also find that relative to tight environments, in polarized and loose environments, personal traits and values play a larger role in determining actual behavior. This provides important insights into how individuals navigate environments that contain strategic uncertainty.
    Keywords: cooperation, descriptive norms, variance, peer effects
    JEL: C91 D01
    Date: 2023
  68. By: Victor Boussange; Didier Sornette; Heike Lischke; Lo\"ic Pellissier
    Abstract: The processes of ecological interactions, dispersal and mutations shape the dynamics of biological communities, and analogous eco-evolutionary processes acting upon economic entities have been proposed to explain economic change. This hypothesis is compelling because it explains economic change through endogenous mechanisms, but it has not been quantitatively tested at the global economy level. Here, we use an inverse modelling technique and 59 years of economic data covering 77 countries to test whether the collective dynamics of national economic activities can be characterised by eco-evolutionary processes. We estimate the statistical support of dynamic community models in which the dynamics of economic activities are coupled with positive and negative interactions between the activities, the spatial dispersal of the activities, and their transformations into other economic activities. We find strong support for the models capturing positive interactions between economic activities and spatial dispersal of the activities across countries. These results suggest that processes akin to those occurring in ecosystems play a significant role in the dynamics of economic systems. The strength-of-evidence obtained for each model varies across countries and may be caused by differences in the distance between countries, specific institutional contexts, and historical contingencies. Overall, our study provides a new quantitative, biologically inspired framework to study the forces shaping economic change.
    Date: 2023–01
  69. By: Courtney A. Bell; Jessalynn K. James; Eric S. Taylor; James Wyckoff
    Abstract: We study the returns to experience in teaching, estimated using supervisor ratings from classroom observations. We describe the assumptions required to interpret changes in observation ratings over time as the causal effect of experience on performance. We compare two difference-in-differences strategies: the two-way fixed effects estimator common in the literature, and an alternative which avoids potential bias arising from effect heterogeneity. Using data from Tennessee and Washington, DC, we show empirical tests relevant to assessing the identifying assumptions and substantive threats—e.g., leniency bias, manipulation, changes in incentives or job assignments—and find our estimates are robust to several threats.
    JEL: I2 J24 M5
    Date: 2023–01
  70. By: AndrŽs Rodr’guez-Pose (Ca–ada Blanch Centre and Department of Geography and Environment, London School of Economics); Miquel Vidal-Bover (OECD Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities)
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has sparked a surge in the number and scope of governmental interventions, both in centralised and decentralised states. Decentralisation theories and recent empirical studies suggest that highly decentralised systems are more resilient to shocks and cope better with adversity. Yet, little is still known about how decentralised governments have coped with the COVID-19 health emergency. Using an original dataset of 445 regions across 26 OECD countries, this article finds that COVID-19-related mortality rates are not connected to the degree of fiscal and political decentralisation, but rather are tied to the mismatch between the two dimensions, also known as unfunded mandates. Large unfunded mandates are positively associated with higher COVID-19 mortality rates. Fiscal and political decentralisation, by contrast, become statistically insignificant, when unfunded mandates are considered. Hence, better Ñnot moreÑdecentralisation is needed, as unfunded mandates are a threat to the capacity of subnational authorities to address the COVID-19 emergency. In emergency situations, the dysfunctionality caused by unfunded mandates undermines the effectiveness of the response of the relevant public authorities to pressing challenges.
    Date: 2023–01
  71. By: Mallick, Debdulal; Khalil, Islam; Nicholas, Aaron
    Abstract: We investigate the effects on health outcomes resulting from a reduction in years of schooling in Egypt in 1988, a policy change that moves in the opposite direction in relation to the extant literature. We exploit this policy change as a natural experiment and employ a fuzzy regression discontinuity design to investigate a wide range of objectively measured health outcomes and behaviors. Despite the policy’s adverse effect on years of schooling and students’ ability to complete educational milestones, there is no effect on any of the health outcomes. Our results (or lack thereof) add to the complexity and nuance of the findings in the literature that is focused on the effect of increasing compulsory schooling (or school leaving age), particularly in developing countries.
    Keywords: Education; Health; Natural experiment; Fuzzy regression discontinuity
    JEL: C99 I12 I20
    Date: 2023–01
  72. By: Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan; Mr. Christian H Ebeke; Mr. Davide Malacrino; Louise Rabier; Melih Firat
    Abstract: While the level of disparities across regions in 10 advanced European economies studied in this paper mostly reflects productivity gaps, the increase since the Great Recession has resulted from diverging unemployment rates. Following the pandemic, this could be further exacerbated given teleworkability rates are lower in poorer regions than in high-income regions, making them ex-ante more vulnerable to the pandemic’s likely material impact on the prevalence of remote work. Preliminary evidence from 2020 confirms that regional disparities between countries increased during 2020. A further concern is that the pandemic might accelerate the automation of jobs across Europe, something which often happens following recessions. While lagging regions have lower ex-ante vulnerabilities against the routinization, the transformation of jobs through sectors with higher routinization rates in these regions could increase their vulnerability to technological change over time. The green transition could also lead to challenges for regions that have benefitted from carbon-intensive growth strategies. Finally, the paper discusses the role for policies—including placed-based ones—in reducing disparities in the face of the aforementioned short, medium, and long-term risks.
    Keywords: Regional inequality; teleworkability; automation; climate change; workability rate; growth tradeoff; productivity gap; The Green; IMF staff calculation; Greenhouse gas emissions; COVID-19; Employment; Climate policy; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Europe
    Date: 2022–09–30
  73. By: David Hirshleifer; Lin Peng; Qiguang Wang
    Abstract: We study how the social transmission of public news influences investors' beliefs and securities markets. Using an extensive dataset to measure investor social networks, we find that earnings announcements from firms in higher-centrality locations generate stronger immediate price and trading volume reactions. Post announcement, such firms experience weaker price drifts but higher and more persistent volume. This evidence suggests that while greater social connectedness facilitates timely incorporation of news into prices, it also triggers opinion divergence and excessive trading. We provide a model of these effects and present further supporting evidence with granular data based on StockTwits messages and household trading records.
    JEL: G11 G12 G14 G4 G41
    Date: 2023–01
  74. By: Mathias Bühler (LMU)
    Abstract: A central argument for trade liberalization is that when the `gains from trade' are shared, countries see large gains in economic development. In this paper, I empirically evaluate this argument and assess the impact of elite capture on regional development. Africa provides a unique study ground because the arbitrary placement of country borders during the colonial period partitioned hundreds of ethnic groups across borders. This partitioning is a source of variation in population heterogeneity and cross-country connectedness that is independent of economic considerations. Thus, African borders provide both a credible instrument for bilateral trade flows and enable the assignment of trade flows ---and their impacts--- to individuals. I find that while ethnic networks increase trade flows, increased trade activity decreases subnational economic development when measured by satellite data or individual wealth. I show that this counter-intuitive result comes from elite groups capturing the gains from trade, with detrimental impacts on trust and democratic progress in society.
    Date: 2023–02–02
  75. By: Darlene Booth-Bell; Kristen Broady; Taylor Griffin
    Abstract: Using data from the 2019 Survey of Consumer Finances and the U.S. Census Bureau, along with data and research from other sources, this paper presents seven economic facts about the racial wealth gap in the U.S. We present data on racial disparities in income, employment, homeownership, education, access to credit, and retirement savings – all factors that contribute to a significant and persistent gap in net worth between households of different races and ethnicities, particularly between Black households and White households. While none of the economic factors listed fully explains the racial wealth gap, each factor, along with a history of racism and discrimination has contributed to the extreme wealth inequality in America today.
    Keywords: wealth inequality; income; education; credit
    JEL: D31 D63 E24 I24
    Date: 2022–07
  76. By: Guo, Ziyi; Wang, Yan
    Abstract: Community-based small businesses (CSB) bear the brunt of environmental shocks aggravated by climate change, thus requiring appended community support. This research addresses the knowledge gap existing in the increasingly convergent field of hazard and climate adaptation planning research. It examines the inadequate local commitments to CSB resilience. The study establishes an integrated CSB Resilience Framework with 11 local planning objectives across five dimensions and evaluates relevant plans of 56 Gulf Coast counties using Natural Language Processing. Our evaluation results outline the inadequate planning focus on CSB resilience that is distinct by community typologies. Tailored improvement strategies can be suggested accordingly.
    Date: 2023–01–25

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