|
on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Breidenbach, Philipp; Jäger, Philipp; Taruttis, Lisa |
| Abstract: | Exploiting regional heterogeneity in population dynamics across more than 10,000 municipalities in Germany, we provide robust empirical evidence that population aging depresses real estate prices and rents. Using millions of individual real estate offers and detailed demographic data on the municipality level, we estimate that average sales prices in 2020 would have been up to 12% higher, if the population age distribution had been the same as in 2008. We show that population aging does not only reduce prices but also increases the availability of real estate. Moreover, we document substantial heterogeneity in price responses by dwelling type, real estate characteristics and urban-rural status which suggest that a lower demand for living space and live-cycle dissaving are driving our results. We predict that population aging will continue to put downward pressure on real estate prices and exacerbate regional disparities in Germany. |
| Keywords: | Real estate prices,population aging,Germany |
| JEL: | J11 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:953&r=ure |
| By: | Gruhl, Henri; Volkhausen, Nicolas; Pestel, Nico; aus dem Moore, Nils |
| Abstract: | This paper studies whether people's perception of improvements in local air quality are reflected in the housing market based on comprehensive data on real estate prices from Germany. Using a quasi-experimental research design, we exploit the staggered introduction of Low Emission Zones (LEZs) across German cities, lowering urban air pollution by limiting the access of high-emitting vehicles. We find that residents value the presence of LEZs, reflected by roughly 2% higher apartment rents. Estimates are similar, albeit smaller in magnitude, for properties for purchase. The results are driven by earlier LEZ implementations and LEZs in areas with relatively higher pre-intervention pollution levels. |
| Keywords: | Low emission zone,policy evaluation,house prices,externalities |
| JEL: | I18 R21 Q51 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:977&r=ure |
| By: | Beer, Andrew; Crommelin, Laura; Vij, Akshay; Dodson, Jago; Dühr, Stefanie; Pinnegar, Simon |
| Abstract: | This Inquiry final report brings together three separate research projects to examine the capacity of Australia’s smaller cities to assist in managing population growth, including international and national migration; and provides advice on which policy instruments and programs are most likely to redirect population movements to these places. Absolute population growth was highest amongst smaller cities located in coastal regions next to the two major cities in south-east Australia. By contrast, population decline was concentrated in inland and remote towns, particularly in centres associated with resource industries. International migration was largely similar, with most relocating to larger regional urban centres; few international arrivals choose smaller cities as their first destination. The report outlines a number of potential policy direction options: • develop and activate land use planning to support the development of smaller cities • develop a portfolio of place-based policies that seek to concentrate investment in a limited number of smaller cities • encourage the growth of further education in smaller cities • expedite the growth of smaller cities as preferred places of residence for older Australians, including retirees The policy options are not mutually exclusive. Governments could potentially implement a portfolio of actions to maximise the prospects of smaller cities and associated regions. The diversity of regional cities needs to be clearly acknowledged, as does the desire for greater local input in planning. Translating this into greater localised land use planning capacity will provide the best chance of ensuring growth happens for regional cities, not just to them. |
| Date: | 2022–08–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:3rafw&r=ure |
| By: | Pan, Alexandra; Shaheen, Susan PhD |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread lockdowns across the world in early 2020, with major implications to spatial and temporal commuting patterns as a result of increased work from home (also known as telework) activities. There has been a high degree of uncertainty on what work from home impacts will persist in the future. In this report, we first conduct a thorough review of news articles, published reports, and peer-reviewed literature to summarize telework trends. We also use scenario planning to bring together ten experts from academia, public sector, industry, and commercial real estate in two 1.5-hour long workshops to discuss the impacts of telework on transportation, housing, commercial real estate, and land use. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, COVID-19, telework, telemobility, travel behavior, commuting, transportation policy, land use |
| Date: | 2022–11–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt23x277qd&r=ure |
| By: | Giménez-Nadal, José Ignacio; Molina, José Alberto; Velilla, Jorge |
| Abstract: | This paper explores school commuting behaviors of children who attend primary school, high-school, or University, using time use data for a set of countries obtained from the Multinational Time Use Study. We focus on the duration of school commutes, and how they correlate with individual and family characteristics. We also explore the transport modes used, and whether the commuting is done alone. The results show significant differences in school commuting times across countries. Furthermore, we find more time devoted to commuting, and higher rates of commuting done alone, as the schooling level of respondents increases. Means of transport are relatively similar within countries, although they change significantly across countries. This analysis is the first exploration of school, high-school, and University commuting behavior, using time use data that make the results comparable. Our analysis opens doors for future research, and may serve planners in terms of policies promoting specific student mobility. |
| Keywords: | school commuting,transport mode,commuting alone,time use data,MTUS data |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1194&r=ure |
| By: | Li, Tiebei; Denham, Todd; Dodson, Jago; Vij, Akshay |
| Abstract: | This research investigates patterns and dynamics of population, migration and economic change in Australian regional urban centres 2011–2016 through the changing economic profile and performance of Australia’s regional urban centres and assesses how demographic and migration patterns are shaping and responding to economic change. The contribution of regional urban centres to Australia’s economic and population growth has been a topic of growing policy interest in the past two decades, as a result of rapid growth in the major cities and concerns for parts of regional Australia that have experienced population decline. Associated with these trends is the distribution of economic activity and employment—particularly as traditional regional strengths such as agriculture, manufacturing and mining have declined as sources of employment in recent decades. This analysis identifies three significant trends: larger and metropolitan-proximate regional urban centres are generally increasing in population more rapidly than other regional urban centres; coastal urban centres have experienced faster population growth rates than inland urban centres; and population losses tend to be concentrated in inland, smaller, remote and often resource-reliant towns. |
| Date: | 2022–08–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:h8ypx&r=ure |
| By: | Hager, Anselm; Hilbig, Hanno (Harvard University); Vief, Robert |
| Abstract: | Affordable housing is a key challenge of the 21st century. A pivotal driver of growing housing prices is residents' opposition to construction, a phenomenon known as NIMBYism ("Not In My Backyard"). To make housing more affordable, city governments are increasingly implementing rent control policies. Does rent control---by making tenants more likely to stay in their apartments---spark NIMBYism and thus exacerbate the housing crisis? We study the case of Berlin, which recently passed a sweeping rent control law. Leveraging two discontinuities in the policy, we show that rent control made tenants less NIMBY. Specifically, tenants in rent controlled apartments became more likely to approve of local-level construction and immigration, compared to tenants in non-rent-controlled apartments. We argue that the decline in NIMBYism is likely due to an economic channel. Tenants in urban centers associate construction and immigration with displacement pressures and gentrification. Rent control alleviates these concerns by providing financial and residential security. |
| Date: | 2022–10–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:kwjem&r=ure |
| By: | aus dem Moore, Nils; Brehm, Johannes; Breidenbach, Philipp; Ghosh, Arijit; Gruhl, Henri |
| Abstract: | The frequency and severity of fluvial floods are expected to increase due to climate change. This paper investigates whether flood risk perception in the housing market changes across a country after the occurrence of a catastrophic fluvial flood. Using a comprehensive geocoded German house price data set and official flood risk maps, we exploit the July 2021 fluvial flood that was salient across Germany as an exogenous variation to causally measure the flood risk valuation update in a difference-in-differences setup. While we find that house prices decreased in the most inundated regions, no price changes occurred in flood risk regions that were not directly affected. This finding indicates that people did not update their risk perception after indirect exposure. With this paper, we contribute to the understanding of the impact of a salient flood on flood risk capitalization in places without direct exposure. |
| Keywords: | Flood risk,home prices,risk updating |
| JEL: | Q54 Q51 D81 R31 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:976&r=ure |
| By: | Kemeny, Tom; Storper, Michael |
| Abstract: | Spatial income disparities have increased in the United States since 1980. Growth in this form of inequality is linked to major social, economic and political challenges. Yet, contemporary patterns, and how they relate to those of the past, remain insufficiently well understood. Building on population survey microdata spanning 1940-2019, this paper uses group-based trajectory modelling techniques to identify distinct sets of local labor markets based on the evolution of their income levels. We find that the increase in spatial inequality since 1980 is almost entirely driven by a small number of populous, economically-important, and resiliently high-performing `superstar' city-regions. Meanwhile, since 1940, much of the rest of the urban system has continued to converge toward the mean. We examine the demographic, economic and social characteristics of these different trajectories, identifying catch-up regions, declining regions, long-term winners, and possible future superstars. There is considerable turbulence within the convergence process, consisting of regions that are moving both upward and downward in the system. We conclude by exploring implications for the American urban-regional system in the mid-21st century, considering the challenges in overcoming the growing split between superstar locations and the rest of the country. |
| Date: | 2022–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:wnd8t&r=ure |
| By: | Pulgar, Javier; Ramírez, Diego; Candia, Cristian |
| Abstract: | People perceive, interpret, and assess others’ behaviors to build social ties even at young ages, affected by local contexts, which can lead, in the end, to improving learning experiences, resolving complex tasks, or creating companies. After the recent healthcare crisis due to COVID-19, online and hybrid social interactions are more prevalent in current social relationships and particularly relevant in education because information communication technologies now modulate behaviors. Here, we explore the role of social behaviors and their local contexts in building social networks and driving individual network centrality. Chilean education configuration provides a natural setting for exploring social relationships because students remain in the same group eight hours per day during their entire primary (eight years) and secondary (four years) school years. Thus, in the social mix of the classroom, students would show and witness their and others’ behaviors in both academic and social activities. We conduct two studies in different educational levels: i) primary school students (858 students from 45 different classrooms) and ii) secondary (191 students from eight different classrooms) to test cognitive and social drivers for network centrality. In the first study, we map the network collaboration for 3rd, 4th, and 5th-grade students. We find that 3rd-grade students exhibit more connections in their social networks than older students. Besides, we observe that social perception of popularity, prosociality, aggressiveness, and social preferences drive network centrality. In the second study, we separated secondary students into two different local contexts: hybrid and online teaching modalities. We find that students exhibit more network connectivity in the hybrid setting, and good student perception does not drive individual network centrality. On the other hand, in classrooms performing online teaching, the perception of good students is positively associated with network centrality. These results support the idea that students behave by following and interpreting social behaviors in their interactions, even in young populations. The availability and use of information for tie formation are dependable on students’ cognitive maturity and accessibility to face-to-face interactions, where popularity and pro-social behavior, for instance, become more evident. |
| Date: | 2022–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:yh8qc&r=ure |
| By: | Neil Bhutta; Aurel Hizmo; Daniel R. Ringo |
| Abstract: | We assess racial discrimination in mortgage approvals using new data on mortgage applications. Minority applicants tend to have significantly lower credit scores, higher leverage, and are less likely than white applicants to receive algorithmic approval from race-blind government automated underwriting systems (AUS). Observable applicant- risk factors explain most of the racial disparities in lender denials. Further, we exploit the AUS data to show there are risk factors we do not directly observe, and our analysis indicates that these factors explain at least some of the residual 1-2 percentage point denial gaps. Overall, we find that differential treatment has played a limited role in generating denial disparities in recent years. |
| Keywords: | Discrimination; Fair lending; Automated underwriting; Credit score; Mortgage lending |
| JEL: | R30 R51 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2022–10–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2022-67&r=ure |
| By: | Elizabeth U. Cascio; Ethan G. Lewis |
| Abstract: | In the late 1930s, the NAACP launched a campaign to equalize Black and white teacher salaries in the de jure segregated schools of the American South. Using newly collected county panel data spanning three decades, this paper first documents heterogeneous within-state impacts of the campaign on teacher salaries. In states that reinforced successful NAACP litigation by introducing universal minimum salary schedules based on objective criteria, the relatively large wage penalty historically suffered by Black teachers in districts with higher Black enrollment shares disappeared by the mid-1950s. In states that resisted by adopting salary schedules using the National Teacher Examination as a measure of teaching efficacy, that penalty remained. In the second part of the paper, we estimate the effect of teacher pay on educational attainment exploiting variation in Black salary gains over time across counties with different Black enrollment shares, and across states by whether subsequent state policy reinforced or resisted court rulings favorable to the NAACP. We find that Black teacher salary gains contributed to the large reductions in racial inequality in school enrollment and grade progression in the South at mid-century. |
| JEL: | H7 I2 J15 N32 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30631&r=ure |
| By: | William M. Doerner (Federal Housing Finance Agency); Wenzhen Lin (Syracuse University) |
| Abstract: | House price seasonality has been increasing over the last decade, but adjustments have remained largely unchanged in commonly used public data. This paper shows how seasonal adjustments work -- both theoretically and applied to observed transactions -- when constructing house price indices (HPI). In this paper, we find the seasonality in the housing market is not uniform across geographies. Evidence is provided about where adjustments are more necessary, how often they should be recalculated, and how the weather-related variables, social and industry characteristics impact difference between adjusted and non-adjusted HPI. Using the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)'s entire suite of public indices, we update adjustments that have been provided by the FHFA and offer new adjustments for over 400 metropolitan areas and other geographies, which haven't been provided before. We find the difference between previous and updated adjusted indices are relatively small, with slightly improvement in recent years. |
| Keywords: | seasonality, house price, real estate valuation, X-13 |
| JEL: | C5 E3 R1 R3 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hfa:wpaper:22-03&r=ure |
| By: | Viktor Stojkoski; Philipp Koch; Cesar A. Hidalgo; |
| Abstract: | Did migrants help make Paris a center for the arts and Vienna a beacon of classical music? Or was the rise of these knowledge agglomerations a sole consequence of local actors? Here, we use data on the biographies of more than 22,000 famous historical individuals born between the years 1000 and 2000 to estimate the contribution of famous immigrants, emigrants, and locals to the knowledge specializations of European regions. We find that the probability that a region develops a specialization in a new activity (physics, philosophy, painting, music, etc.) grows with the presence of immigrants with knowledge on that activity and of immigrants specialized in related activities. We also find that the probability that a region loses one of its existing areas of specialization decreases with the presence of immigrants specialized in that activity and in related activities. In contrast, we do not find robust evidence that locals with related knowledge play a statistically significant role in a region entering or exiting a new specialization. These findings advance our understanding of the role of migration in the historical formation of knowledge agglomerations. nations. |
| Keywords: | migration, knowledge spillovers, relatedness, economic history |
| JEL: | N13 N93 O15 O33 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2231&r=ure |
| By: | Borg, Gabriele; Passaro, Diego Gentile; Hermo, Santiago |
| Abstract: | The recent rise of sub-national minimum wage (MW) policies in the US has resulted in significant dispersion of MW levels within metropolitan areas. In this paper, we study the effect of MW changes on local housing rental markets exploiting the placed-based nature of MW policies. For each location we define both the log MW where the average resident works (the “workplace MW”) and the log MW in the location itself (the “residence MW”). We derive a partial-equilibrium model of a housing market in which MW levels in each location affect housing demand by changing the income of commuters and the prices of non-tradable consumption. The model shows that the workplace MW has a positive effect on rents whereas the residence MW has a negative effect. We construct a ZIP code by month panel using rents data from Zillow, and use a difference-in-differences design to estimate the effect of residence and workplace MW changes on median housing rents. Our baseline results imply that a 10 percent increase in the workplace MW and no change in the residence MW will increase rents by 0.69 percent (SE=0.29). If the residence MW also increases by 10 percent, then rents will increase by 0.47 percent (SE=0.16). We use our results to study the incidence of two counterfactual MW policies: a federal MW increase and a city MW increase. We estimate that landlords pocket 9.2 and 11.0 cents for every dollar increase in worker income in areas affected by these policies. However, the incidence varies systematically across space. |
| Date: | 2022–07–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:zj2sm&r=ure |
| By: | Thiel, Patrick |
| Abstract: | In 2017, the German federal government passed the Railroad Noise Protection Act to reduce the noise emitted by freight trains. This paper evaluates the effects of this law on house prices by using regional variation comparing affected homes close to train tracks and homes in greater distance before and after the introduction of the national strategy. The difference-in-difference framework suggests an increase in house prices by 0.5% to 2.5% for houses close to the tracks considering different time periods for the act being passed and its complete implementation. A heterogeneity analysis reveals increasing effects with reduced distance to tracks. It also shows that those with the highest general noise burden gain the most from the Railroad Noise Protection Act. |
| Keywords: | House prices,hedonic price function,railroad noise,Railroad Noise Protection Act |
| JEL: | O18 Q53 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:981&r=ure |
| By: | Lee, Shu En; Lim, Jing Zhi; Shen, Lucas |
| Abstract: | Social segregation has profound impacts on socioeconomic outcomes. Using anonymized GPS records for Singapore which we spatially join to census records, we examine daily movement across geographically-refined neighborhoods. We show that the GPS-derived data detect segregation by poverty, even with an imperfect proxy, and in the presence of targeted urban policies aimed at social integration. The findings bode well for the use of GPS data in general to measure social segregation. |
| Keywords: | Social segregation; GPS; Mobile Phone Data; Singapore; Mobility |
| JEL: | D31 J15 R23 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:115318&r=ure |
| By: | Roberto Brunetti (Univ Rennes, CNRS, CREM - UMR 6211, F-35000 Rennes); Carl Gaigné (INRAE, UMR1302, SMART Rennes (France) and CREATE, Laval University, Quebec (Canada)); Fabien Moizeau (Univ Rennes, CNRS, CREM - UMR 6211, F-35000 Rennes) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of the credit market on urban land rents and the implications for tax policy. We introduce two credit market imperfections in the canonical urban land use model: a borrowing cost and a down-payment requirement. We first show that both imperfections lower equilibrium land prices in the most attractive locations within a city. This downward effect is more likely to occur when land is scarce as well as when cities are large and endowed with inefficient transport infrastructures. However, only the down-payment requirement generates utility differentials among homogeneous households (symmetry-breaking). We further show that the Henry George Theorem, which posits that a confiscatory tax on land rents is sufficient to finance public goods, needs to be amended in the presence of credit market imperfections as aggregate land rents are lower than public expenditures. Depending on the nature of mortgage market imperfections, we derive optimal tax schedules. |
| Keywords: | Credit constraint; Land use; Henry George Theorem; Land taxation; Local public good |
| JEL: | H20 R14 R21 R50 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tut:cremwp:2022-07&r=ure |
| By: | Cainelli, Giulio; Ganau, Roberto |
| Abstract: | Economic geographers and regional economists have traditionally analysed the mechanisms driving learning processes and the diffusion of knowledge among local economic actors. During the past decade, the concept of «related variety» has been frequently used to denote an agglomeration force able to explain knowledge-related advantages for firms and geographically bounded productive systems, and which arises from the heterogeneity of local industries. Besides this concept, more recent studies have emphasised the role of firm heterogeneity as an alternative – but not substitute – mecha-nism for knowledge creation and diffusion. This paper discusses the factors driving the emergence of knowledge spillovers within agglomerative spaces, and conducts a critical comparison between the concepts of industrial related variety and firm heterogeneity as two potential sources of local knowledge externalities, and, thus, of local economic development. |
| Keywords: | agglomeration economies; knowledge spillovers; related variety |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2021–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:114858&r=ure |
| By: | Hollingsworth, Alex; Huang, Mike; Rudik, Ivan (Cornell University); Sanders, Nicholas |
| Abstract: | We study how ambient lead exposure impacts learning in elementary school by leveraging a natural experiment where a large national automotive racing organization switched from leaded to unleaded fuel. We find increased levels and duration of exposure to lead negatively affect academic performance, shift the entire academic performance distribution, and negatively impact both younger and older children. The average treated student in our setting has an expected income reduction of $5,200 in present value terms. Avoiding said treatment has an effect size similar to improving teacher value added by one-fourth of a standard deviation, reducing class size by 3 students, or increasing school spending per pupil by $750. The marginal impacts of lead are larger in impoverished, non-white counties, and among students with greater duration of exposure, even after controlling for the total quantity of exposure. |
| Date: | 2022–09–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:wz73u&r=ure |
| By: | Kear, Mark; McCann, Laura Elizabeth (University of Arizona); Hibberd, Robert; Hannah, Corrie |
| Abstract: | Efforts to measure and map spatial variation in vulnerability have long employed manufactured and mobile homes (MH) as an indicator of vulnerability. This practice reinforces perceptions of MH as a inferior form of home. We present a novel approach to measuring social vulnerability among MH residents that seeks to internally differentiate the MH population and produce deeper insights into the complex relationship between housing type, social vulnerability, and housing insecurity. We apply logistic principal component analysis (LPCA) to census microdata from 1,094 MH households in Pima County, Arizona to identify components with variable loadings consistent with social vulnerability and housing security interpretations. Four vulnerability profiles emerge from this analysis. Profiles were corroborated using interview data from 72 MH households. The article provides new insights into within-housing-type variation in the relationship between vulnerability and housing insecurity, and (ii) the role of housing type in mediating that relationship. |
| Date: | 2022–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:g3fys&r=ure |
| By: | Georgios Tsiachtsiras (University of Bristol and University of Bath, United Kingdom.); Deyun Yin (School of Economics and Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China.); Ernest Miguelez (Univ. Bordeaux, CNRS, BSE, UMR 6060, Avenue Léon Duguit, 33608 Pessac, France and AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona, Spain.); Rosina Moreno (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the e?ect of the High Speed Rail (HSR) network expansion on local innovation in China during the period 2008-2016. Using exogenous variation arising from a novel instrument - courier’s stations during the Ming dynasty, we ?nd solid evidence that the opening of a HSR station increases cities’ innovation activity. We also explore the role of inter-city technology di?usion as being behind the surge of local innovation. To do it, we compute least-cost paths between city-pairs, over time, based on the opening and speed of each HSR line, and obtain that an increase in a city’s connectivity to other cities specialized in a speci?c technological ?eld, through the HSR network, increases the probability for the city to specialize in that same technological ?eld. We interpret it as evidence of knowledge di?usion. |
| Keywords: | High speed rail, Innovation, Technology Di?usion, Patents, Specialization. JEL classification: R40, O18, O30, O33. |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202220&r=ure |
| By: | Johannes Buggle (University of Vienna [Vienna]); Thierry Mayer (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Seyhun Orcan Sakalli (King‘s College London); Mathias Thoenig (UNIL - Université de Lausanne = University of Lausanne, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the push and pull factors involved in the outmigration of Jews facing persecution in Nazi Germany from 1933 to 1941. Our empirical investigation makes use of a unique individual-level dataset that records the migration history of the Jewish community in Germany over the period. Our analysis highlights new channels, specific to violent contexts, through which social networks affect the decision to flee. We first estimate a structural model of migration where individuals base their own migration decision on the observation of persecution and migration among their peers. Identification rests on exogenous variations in local push and pull factors across peers who live in different cities of residence. Then we perform various experiments of counterfactual history to quantify how migration restrictions in destination countries affected the fate of Jews. For example, removing work restrictions for refugees in the recipient countries after the Nuremberg Laws (of 1935) would have led to an increase in Jewish migration out of Germany in the range of 12 to 20%, and a reduction in mortality due to prevented deportations in the range of 6 to 10%. |
| Keywords: | Refugees,Migration Policy,Counterfactual History,Nazi Germany |
| Date: | 2022–04–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03799567&r=ure |
| By: | Gerald KOESSL (Austrian Federation of Limited-Profit Housing Associations) |
| Abstract: | Limited-profit housing plays a significant role in Austria’s housing market. Around a quarter of all households live in homes owned or managed by a limited-profit housing association (LPHA). These associations are characterised by a distinct business model, based on the premise of cost-recovery and revolving funds. By deviating both from the logic of for-profit housing and from public housing, LPHAs occupy a distinct ‘Third Sector’ role in Austria’s housing market. This paper describes the key mechanisms and principles of limited-profit housing, including how they are financed, how rents are set, what components are included in price calculations and how they use revolving funds to finance future affordable housing construction. The paper also elaborates the impact of the limited-profit business model on rent levels and draws on a recent study to demonstrate their wider economic impacts. |
| Keywords: | affordable housing, cost-rent, revolving fund, economic impact, Austria |
| JEL: | P13 E21 R31 |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crc:wpaper:2204&r=ure |
| By: | Congressional Budget Office |
| Abstract: | The Housing Trust Fund and the Capital Magnet Fund provide grants to increase and preserve the supply of affordable rental housing and to increase homeownership for low-income households. The funds are financed through fees paid by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), on new mortgage guarantees that they make. |
| JEL: | G21 G28 H53 I30 I38 |
| Date: | 2022–11–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:report:58427&r=ure |
| By: | Badi H. Baltagi; Ying Deng; Jing Li; Zhenlin Yang |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of urban density, city government efficiency, and medical resources on COVID-19 infection and death outcomes in China. We adopt a simultaneous spatial dynamic panel data model to account for (i) the simultaneity of infection and death outcomes, (ii) the spatial pattern of the transmission, (iii) the inter-temporal dynamics of the disease, and (iv) the unobserved city- and time-specific effects. We find that, while population density increases the level of infections, government efficiency significantly mitigates the negative impact of urban density. We also find that the availability of medical resources improves public health outcomes conditional on lagged infections. Moreover, there exists significant heterogeneity at different phases of the epidemiological cycle. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, urban density, government efficiency, cities |
| JEL: | R10 R50 I18 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10037&r=ure |
| By: | Brehm, Johannes; Pestel, Nico; Schaffner, Sandra; Schmitz, Laura |
| Abstract: | Low Emission Zones (LEZs) reduce local air pollution by restricting emission-intensive vehicles from accessing designated areas and have been shown to improve population health. Little is known about the effects of driving restriction policies on other areas of life. This paper studies the effects of LEZs on the educational achievements of elementary school students in Germany, measured by secondary-school transition rates. Using school-level data from North-Rhine Westphalia (NRW), Germany's largest federal state, we exploit the staggered adoption of LEZs since 2008 in a difference-indifferences framework. Our results imply that LEZs increased rates of transition to the academic track by 0.9-1.6 percentage points in NRW. Our findings on the district level for all of Germany confirm the external validity of these findings. Using geo-referenced data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we provide suggestive evidence that a reduction in the prevalence of respiratory infections is a vital channel through which LEZs affect schooling outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Low emission zone,education,air quality,Germany |
| JEL: | I21 J24 Q52 Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:980&r=ure |
| By: | Todd, P.; Zhang, W. |
| Abstract: | This paper develops and estimates a spatial general equilibrium job search model to study the effects of local and universal (federal) minimum wage policies on employment, wages, job postings, vacancies, migration/commuting, and welfare. In the model, workers, who differ in terms of location and education levels, search for jobs locally and in a neighboring area. If they receive remote offers, they decide whether to migrate or commute. Firms post vacancies in multiple locations and make offers subject to minimum wage constraints. The model is estimated using multiple databases, including the American Community Survey (ACS) and Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI), and exploiting minimum wage variation across state borders as well as time series variation (2005-2015). Results show that local minimum wage increases lead firms to post fewer wage offers in both local and neighboring areas and lead lower education workers to reduce interstate commuting. An out-of-sample validation finds that model forecasts of commuting responses to city minimum wage hikes are similar to patterns in the data. A welfare analysis shows how minimum wage effects vary by worker type and with the minimum wage level. Low skill workers benefit from local wage increases up to $10.75/hour and high skill workers up to $12.25/hour. The greatest per capital welfare gain (including both workers and firms) is achieved by a universal minimum wage increase of $12.75/hour. |
| Keywords: | spatial equilibrium, minimum wage, labor relocation, commuting |
| JEL: | J61 J63 J64 J68 R12 R13 |
| Date: | 2022–11–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2265&r=ure |
| By: | Fedeli, Emanuele; Triventi, Moris |
| Abstract: | The educational system is a crucial institutional arena for the long-term successful integration of the children of immigrants into destination countries. We study the consequences of the presence of students with a migration background on various student outcomes in Italy, a country that experienced a rapid increase in immigration fluxes. We enrich the literature in several ways: 1) we analyze not only students’ competencies but also their well-being and social integration; 2) we investigate the joint effects of two dimensions of migrants’ presence in the classroom, namely immigrant concentration and ethno-linguistic diversity; 3) we develop an analytical design to make exposure to a level of immigrant share and ethnolinguistic diversity conditionally random. We use data collected by the National Institute for the Evaluation of the Italian School System on the entire population of students enrolled in the fifth grade (primary education) in 2014–15 (INVALSI, 2015) (n=222,365) Our findings suggest that immigrant concentration and ethno-linguistic diversity in the classroom have limited detrimental effects on student outcomes; their minor effects are widely independent of each other and approximately linear. There is weak evidence of heterogeneous impacts across students with different migration backgrounds; the impact is tiny and appears to be concentrated exclusively on first-generation students. Implications for theoretical debate and educational policies are discussed in relation to the findings. |
| Date: | 2022–07–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:uk73m&r=ure |
| By: | Ala-Mantila, Sanna; Kurvinen, Antti; Karhula, Aleksi |
| Abstract: | As a result of the ongoing urbanization megatrend, cities have an increasingly critical role in the search for sustainability. To create sustainable strategies for cities and to follow up if they induce desired effects proper metrics on the development of neighborhoods are needed. In this paper, we introduce a neighborhood classification framework and demonstrate its use through an analysis of the 20 largest cities in Finland. The high-quality data available for Finland provided solid grounds for development, but the framework is widely applicable to other locations. The classification is freely available for use and has a multitude of potential applications. |
| Date: | 2022–09–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:vw9pb&r=ure |
| By: | Neal, Zachary P.; Neal, Jennifer Watling (Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | Demographic changes in the United States have resulted in cities with fewer children and more singles. However, a focus on building family friendly communities remains common among regional and urban political actors. There appears to be a mismatch between the demographic reality of US communities and political actors' focus. In this research note, we use a sample of 170 Michigan policymakers and a representative sample of 943 Michigan adults to investigate how different demographic groups are prioritized when it comes to neighborhoods, and whether it matters for residents' neighborhood experiences. We find that both groups de-prioritize the neighborhood needs and preferences of singles and couples without children, who consequently experience significantly lower levels of neighborhood satisfaction. We conclude by recommending that regional and urban political actors balance the neighborhood needs of different groups, and that researchers disaggregate the impacts of urban political outcomes by relationship and parenthood status. |
| Date: | 2022–09–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:wprsh&r=ure |
| By: | Lubna Hassan (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.); Aqeel Chaudhry (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.); Hafiz Hanzla Jalil (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.) |
| Abstract: | The private housing societies and their legality has gained much traction in popular media and policy circles lately. CDA estimates that of 204 housing societies in Islamabad, 140 are illegal. Our study of the status of other 64 “Authorized” societies suggests that only 22 housing societies have the required documents. |
| Keywords: | Private Housing Societies, Islamabad, |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:umonog:2021:5&r=ure |
| By: | Nils Braakmann; Arnaud Chevalier; Tanya Wilson |
| Abstract: | We provide first evidence that temporal variations in the expected returns to crime affect the location of property crime. Our identification strategy relies on the widely-held perception in the UK that households of South Asian descent store gold jewellery at home. Price movements on the international market for gold exogenously affect the expected gains from burgling these households, which become relatively more lucrative targets as the gold price increases. Using a neighbourhood-level panel on reported crime and difference-in-differences, we find that burglaries in South Asian neighbourhoods are more sensitive to variations in the gold price than other neighbourhoods in the same municipality, confirming that burglars react rationally to variations in the expected returns to their activities. We conduct a battery of tests on neighbourhood and individual data to eliminate alternative explanations. |
| Keywords: | Crime; Gold prices; Returns to crime; Becker model; Optimal Foraging Theory; Criminal Behaviour; Crime Location |
| JEL: | K42 J19 |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gla:glaewp:2022_10&r=ure |
| By: | Denteh, Augustine; Asare, Samuel; Senadza, Bernardin |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of increasing the length of senior high school education on immediate academic performance. We exploit a unique natural experiment that extended high school duration by one year in Ghana from 2007 to 2009. Following the policy’s reversal, the 2009 and 2010 high school entry cohorts experienced exogenously different years of schooling but took the same exit examination in 2013. Using administrative data on the two student cohorts, we find that the extra year of high school substantially increased performance in all subjects. We find the most economically significant improvement in achievement for two core subjects with the lowest historical pass rates—Core Mathematics and Integrated Science. Analysis by gender demonstrates that the policy closed preexisting achievement gaps in favor of female students for Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) subjects. The results suggest that relaxing learning time constraints may improve academic achievement and close gender gaps in STEM fields. |
| Date: | 2022–08–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:jh9q6&r=ure |
| By: | Julia Bachtrögler-Unger; Mathias Dolls; Carla Krolage; Paul Schüle; Hannes Taubenböck; Matthias Weigand |
| Abstract: | We present a novel approach for analyzing the effects of EU cohesion policy on local economic activity. For all municipalities in the border area of the Czech Republic, Germany and Poland, we collect project-level data on EU funding in the period between 2007 and 2013. Using night light emission data as a proxy for economic development, we show that the receipt of a higher amount of EU funding is associated with increased economic activity at the municipal level. Our paper demonstrates that remote sensing data can provide an effective way to model local economic development also in Europe, where no comprehensive cross-border data is available at such a spatially granular level. |
| Keywords: | regional development, EU cohesion policy, remote sensing |
| JEL: | R11 O18 H54 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10056&r=ure |
| By: | Julio Cáceres-Delpiano; Eugenio Giolito |
| Abstract: | Using administrative data for Chile, we study the impact of School Starting Age (SSA) on the characteristics of the school of first enrollment. After addressing the usual concerns of endogeneity using minimum age requirements and an RD-design, we uncover gains associated with a delay of school entry at the start of the student's school life. SSA is associated with an enrollment in a school with an approximately 0.1 standard deviations higher average in standardized test scores, an increase of approximately 0.17 years in the average education of the peers' parents, and an increase of 4 percentage points in the probability of being enrolled in a private school. The heterogeneity analysis by parents' education reveals the largest gain in the probability of enrollment in a voucher school among less-educated families. We also show that the impact on school's standardized test scores occurs among girls. This heterogeneity by parents' education and student's gender differs from that reported in previous studies. |
| Keywords: | Latin America; Chile; Early Entry; Schools´ characteristics |
| JEL: | A21 I24 I25 I28 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cem:doctra:840&r=ure |
| By: | Wang, Xize (National University of Singapore); Liu, Tao |
| Abstract: | Although residential crowding has many well-being implications, its connection to mental health is yet to be widely examined. Using survey data from 1613 residents in Beijing, China, we find that living in a crowded place – measured by both square metres per person and persons per bedroom – is significantly associated with a higher risk of depression. We test for the mechanisms of such associations and find that the residential crowding–depression link arises through increased living space-specific stress rather than increased life stress. We also identify the following subgroups that have relatively stronger residential crowding–depression associations: females, those living with children, those not living with parents, and those living in non-market housing units. Our findings show that inequality in living space among urban residents not only is an important social justice issue but also has health implications. |
| Date: | 2022–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:cy8hz&r=ure |
| By: | Jason R. Bailey; Davide Lauria; W. Brent Lindquist; Stefan Mittnik; Svetlozar T. Rachev |
| Abstract: | We consider the use of P-spline generalized additive hedonic models for real estate prices in large U.S. cities, contrasting their predictive efficiency against linear and polynomial based generalized linear models. Using intrinsic and extrinsic factors available from Redfin, we show that GAM models are capable of describing 84% to 92% of the variance in the expected ln(sales price), based upon 2021 data. As climate change is becoming increasingly important, we utilized the GAM model to examine the significance of environmental factors in two urban centers on the northwest coast. The results indicate city dependent differences in the significance of environmental factors. We find that inclusion of the environmental factors increases the adjusted R-squared of the GAM model by less than one percent. |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2210.14266&r=ure |
| By: | Niebuhr, Annekatrin (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; Univ. Kiel); Peters, Jan Cornelius (Thünen Institute); Roth, Duncan (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "This paper analyzes how dynamic agglomeration effects differ between foreign and native workers using administrative data on individual employment biographies. According to our results, both groups benefit, on average, equally from gathering work experience in large labor markets. The exception are low-skilled foreign workers, who receive a lower premium for big city experience than low-skilled natives. Providing new evidence on the sources of dynamic agglomeration effects, we show that this difference disappears once we consider the sectors, tasks and establishments, in which foreign and native workers gather experience. More generally, our results indicate that, on average, around 50% of the return of an additional year of experience gained in the densest regions can be ascribed to the acquisition of experience in higher-quality jobs in large cities." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Integrierte Erwerbsbiografien |
| JEL: | J31 J61 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2022–11–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202224&r=ure |
| By: | Justin Contat (Federal Housing Finance Agency); Malcolm Rogers (Federal Housing Finance Agency) |
| Abstract: | We document changes in national housing supply and liquidity during the COVID-19 era using a suite of monthly indices, ranging from summary statistics (mean and median time on the market, proportion of homes sold, etc.) to more advanced econometric indices that can address censoring and unobserved heterogeneity. Our results indicate a sharp structural break in most of the indices near the start of COVID-19 in March 2020, though each index’s most likely break date varies by a few months. Our findings suggest that the start of the pandemic saw a supply decrease, followed by an immediate and sustained price increase. Listings became more likely to be withdrawn, but those that sold did so faster relative to pre-COVID levels, indicating a change in the distribution of housing market liquidity. Finally, our results suggest that there were different types of structural breaks, specifically changes in the level, slope, and seasonality of the indices. |
| Keywords: | housing supply, housing liquidity, COVID-19, structural breaks |
| JEL: | C22 R30 R31 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hfa:wpaper:22-02&r=ure |
| By: | Eduardo Duque; Juan Pablo Torres-Martinez |
| Abstract: | In classical school choice contexts there exists a centralized assignment procedure that is stable and strategy-proof: the Gale-Shapley student-optimal stable mechanism. We show that this property is not satisfied when externalities are incorporated into the model, even in scenarios in which students are primarily concerned about their own placement (weak externalities). Indeed, although weak externalities have no effects on stability, there are school choice contexts in which no stable and strategy-proof mechanism exists. Furthermore, we show that stability and strategy-proofness are compatible if and only if schools' priorities are Ergin-acyclic. This strong effect of weak externalities on incentives is related to the incompatibility between stability, strategy-proofness, and non-bossiness in classical school choice problems. |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udc:wpaper:wp542&r=ure |
| By: | Ando, Michihito; Mori, Hiroaki; Yamaguchi, Shintaro |
| Abstract: | The evidence for the effects of early childhood education on risky behavior in adolescence is limited. This paper studies the consequences of a reform of a large-scale universal kindergarten program in Japan. Exploiting a staggered expansion of kindergartens across regions, we estimate the effects of the reform using an event study model. Our estimates indicate that the reform significantly reduced juvenile violent arrests and the rate of teenage pregnancy, but we do not find that the reform increased the high school enrollment rate. We suspect that improved non-cognitive skills can account for the reduction of risky behavior in adolescence. |
| Date: | 2022–08–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:rnkgs&r=ure |
| By: | Leroutier, Marion; Quirion, Philippe |
| Abstract: | Tackling car emissions in urban areas: Shift, Avoid, Improve |
| Date: | 2022–07–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:f5kmd&r=ure |
| By: | Anna Marenzi (Department of Economics, University Of Venice CÃ Foscari; CRIEP); Dino Rizzi (Department of Economics, University Of Venice CÃ Foscari; CRIEP); Michele Zanette (Department of Economics, University Of Venice CÃ Foscari; CRIEP); Francesca Zantomio (Department of Economics, University Of Venice CÃ Foscari; CRIEP; HEDG (York)) |
| Abstract: | We show how regional governments affect the appropriate – in terms of territorial equity - assignment of a national LTC benefit. We analyse a three-layers setting, where eligibility criteria are defined by the central government (which bears the fiscal cost of transfers) but the assignment decision is taken by regional medical commissions, while applications are activated by individual potential beneficiaries. Combining administrative and survey data, and accounting for regional variation in eligibility prevalence, we document large territorial disparities in need-adjusted benefit assignment. We investigate the determinants of such disparities both in terms of individuals’ differential propensity to claim, and of regional discretionary behaviour, as shaped by the underlying quality of regional institutions. Regional discretion appears to play a major role, with local institutional quality accounting for about one fifth of explained variation in need-adjusted benefit coverage. Lower regional institutional quality results in more opportunistic benefit adjudication decisions, although the relationship is attenuated in highly deprived areas. |
| Keywords: | Territorial equity, regional discretion, multi-level government, institutional quality, long-term care, benefit targeting |
| JEL: | C13 H11 H53 H75 J14 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2022:15&r=ure |
| By: | Metz-Peeters, Maike |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the effects of binding speed limits on crash frequency on German motorways. Various geo-spatial data sources are merged to a new data set providing rich information on roadway characteristics for 500-meter segments of large parts of the German motorway network. The empirical analysis uses a causal forest, which allows to estimate the effects of speed limits on crash frequency under fairly weak assumptions about the underlying data generating process and provides insights into treatment effect heterogeneity. The paper is the first to explicitly discuss possible pitfalls and potential solutions when applying causal forests to geo-spatial data. Substantial negative effects of three levels of speed limits on accident rates are found, being largest for severe, and especially fatal crash rates, while effects on light crash rates are rather moderate. The heterogeneity analysis suggest that the effects are larger for less congested roads, as well as for roads with entrance and exit ramps, while heterogeneity regarding shares of heavy traffic is inconclusive. |
| Keywords: | Crash frequency,speed limits,German Autobahn,causal machine learning,causal forest,spatial machine learning |
| JEL: | R41 R42 R48 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:982&r=ure |
| By: | Costa-Font, Joan; Vilaplana-Prieto, Cristina |
| Abstract: | Individual preferences for ‘ageing in place’ (AIP) in old age are not well understood. One way to test the strength of AIP preference is to investigate the effect of health shocks on residential mobility to smaller size or value dwellings, which we refer to as 'housing downsizing'. This paper exploits more than a decade worth of longitudinal data to study older people's housing decisions across a wide range of European countries. We estimate the effect of health shocks on the probability of different proxies for housing downsizing (residential mobility, differences in home value, home value to wealth ratio), considering the potential endogeneity of the health shock to examine the persistence of AIP preferences. Our findings suggest that consistently with the AIP hypothesis, every decade of life, the likelihood of downsizing decreases by two percentage points (pp). However, the experience of a health shock partially reverts such culturally embedded preference for AIP by a non-negligible magnitude on residential mobility (9pp increase after the onset of a degenerative illness, 9.3pp for other mental disorders and 6.5pp for ADL), home value to wealth ratio and the new dwelling’s size (0.6 and 1.2 fewer rooms after the onset of a degenerative illness or a mental disorder). Such estimates are larger in northern and central European countries. |
| Keywords: | ageing in place; housing downsizing; health shocks at old age; Europe; residential mobility; mental degenerative mental illness; mental disorder |
| JEL: | I18 J61 R31 |
| Date: | 2022–10–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:117189&r=ure |
| By: | Milene Simone Tessarin; Carlos Roberto Azzoni; ; |
| Abstract: | This study explores the importance of labour pool and geographical concentration as essential factors that help shape pathways for innovation and influence the speed with which technological change can occur. To do so, we propose an approach based on human capital and the workers’ skills that contribute to innovation. Being able to capture this broader range of professionals is crucial to assess regional innovation in Less Developed Countries, such as Brazil and other Latin American countries, as their productive structure concentrates on lower technological industries and innovative activities not centred on R&D. We created a measure of innovative potential that can be used at different levels of regional disaggregation. We analyze 374 relevant Brazilian Labour Market Areas (LMA), employing data on occupations from the Annual Report of Social Information, from 2003 to 2018. Although innovative activities are heavily concentrated in a few regions, empirical evidence suggests that a shift has occurred since the early 2000s, with lagging regions making progress faster. Nonetheless, our results show that such convergence is still slight, given the distance between the leading and lagging regions’ innovative performance. Factors related to the region’s previous capacities, such as the stock of workers with innovative skills, manufacturing industry share, and the number of large firms have a positive association with innovative activity in a region. Although the convergence in the innovative potential among Brazilian regions, the movement is too slow to indicate a transformation of the country as a whole to levels similar to those of developed nations. |
| Keywords: | regional innovation, regional inequality, skills of workers, structural change |
| JEL: | O30 O33 R11 J24 L16 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2227&r=ure |
| By: | Ralph, Kelcie; Klein, Nicholas J. (Conrell University); Thigpen, Calvin; Brown, Anne |
| Abstract: | We surveyed transportation students and the U.S. public to explore consensus and divergence in policy preferences. We find considerable agreement among planning students, which may be a strength—it is easier to pursue shared goals—or a weakness—too much consensus can lead to echo chambers and disconnection. Engineering students and the public shared some planner-preferred views (like expanding transit) but disagreed with planning students about the role of transportation and appropriate policy tools, especially road widening. Our results suggest that diverging policy preferences are, at least in part, a reflection of planning’s signature pedagogy. |
| Date: | 2022–06–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:2gk7b&r=ure |
| By: | Juan Carlos Cuestas (IEI and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we aim to analyse how interest rates and returns on natural gas prices affect returns on house price for the case of Spain. To do we estimate time series models controlling for a series of variables related to the well-being of the economy. Hence, we estimate SVAR models to assess how shocks transmit to the returns on house prices. Additionally, we estimate a NARDL model to judge whether there is a differential effect between increases and decreases in gas prices returns and interest rates on the returns of housing prices. We find that gas prices have a positive impact on housing price returns and that there is an asymmetric effect; drops in gas price returns have a milder effect on house price returns than increases. |
| Keywords: | House prices, Spain, natural gas, supply shocks, interest rates, expectations |
| JEL: | C22 R21 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2022/13&r=ure |
| By: | Pina-Sánchez, Jose (University of Leeds); brunton-smith, ian; Buil-Gil, David (University of Manchester); Cernat, Alexandru |
| Abstract: | It has been long known that police recorded crime data is susceptible to substantial measurement error. However, despite its limitations, police data is widely used in regression models exploring the causes and effects of crime. Furthermore, because of the complex error mechanisms affecting police data, attempts to adjust for their impact are rare and tailored to specific settings (crime types, measurement models, outcome models, and precursors or consequences of crime). Here we introduce rcme: Recounting Crime with Measurement error, a new R package to enable sensitivity assessments of the impact of measurement error in analyses using police recorded crime rates across a wide range of settings. Using two real world examples – i) the link from violent crime to disorder, and ii) the role of collective efficacy in mitigating criminal damage – we demonstrate how rcme can be used to summarise the impacts of measurement error in empirical models used in research and practice. |
| Date: | 2022–06–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:sbc8w&r=ure |
| By: | Khan, Muhammad Salar; Jamil, Kamil; Malik, Ammar A. |
| Abstract: | The case of Lahore’s Bus Rapid Transit and Mass Transit investments in this Chapter documents a series of challenges: overlapping roles and responsibilities across a multitude of uncoordinated authorities; proactive opposition to urban developments by civil society groups and opposition political parties; and large-scale untargeted subsidies resulting in unsustainable operational losses. Projects like Lahore Rapid Mass Transit System (LRMTS) involve many conflicting decisions, competing stakeholders, equally appealing alternatives, and booming budgets. Such projects require careful analysis. Multiple lenses—from urban policy, transport policy, and public policy process to public administration theory and public finance—can be employed to analyze these projects. For any such project to be successfully designed and implemented, all stakeholders would have to set aside political and cognitive biases and other narrow interests, prioritize organizational values, and place atop public interest. Finally, any similar project in the region would demand careful mitigation planning, judicious financing schemes, strong historical heritage protection, transparency, and, lastly, a robust in-house capacity to ensure the maintenance of the infrastructure. |
| Date: | 2022–11–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:2zj8m&r=ure |
| By: | Elbert, R. |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:134473&r=ure |
| By: | Fox, Sean; Wolf, Levi John (University of Bristol) |
| Abstract: | The quintessence of urbanity is a sustained geographic concentration of strangers. Physical congregation—or corporeal copresence—has wide-ranging environmental and social consequences that produce urban contexts. In practical terms, this means that demographic criteria alone are sufficient to classify a location, settlement, or region as more or less urban. We use a series of thought experiments to demonstrate the conceptual limitations of popular definitions of urbanity, such as the economic structure of a community, the presence of physical infrastructure, the political or administrative status of a geographic unit, or the degree of connectivity between people. We show that these are not essential to what makes a place urban but are instead common epiphenomena associated with places that have a sustained geographic concentration of strangers. This definition does not require a settlement to be permanent, allowing for ephemeral urbanity (dense but temporary settlements), resolving many classic exceptions to previous definitions of urbanity. We suggest that urbanity is best conceptualised and measured on a continuum and discuss how this can be done empirically to advance our theoretical and practical understanding of urban places and urban systems globally. |
| Date: | 2022–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qfvry&r=ure |
| By: | Hauptmeier, Sebastian; Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric; Renault, Théodore |
| Abstract: | Using regionally disaggregated data on economic activity, we show that risk sharing plays a key role in shaping the real effects of monetary policy. With weak risk sharing, monetary policy shocks trigger a strong and durable response in output. With strong risk sharing, the response is attenuated, and output reverts to its initial level over the medium term. The attenuating impact of risk sharing via credit and factor markets concentrates over a two-year horizon, whereas fiscal risk sharing operates over longer horizons. Fiscal risk sharing especially benefits poorer regions by shielding them against persistent output contractions after tightening shocks. JEL Classification: C32, E32, E52 |
| Keywords: | local projections, monetary policy, quantile regressions, regional heterogeneity, risk sharing |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20222746&r=ure |
| By: | Jamme, Hue-Tam; Connor, Dylan |
| Abstract: | Internet-of-Things (IoT) innovations are reconfiguring our societies and our day-to-day lives. But how do these new technologies enter our communities, and when they do, will they complement or dislocate existing activity? This paper raises these questions with respect to a rapidly proliferating class of “smart vending technologies.” We focus on one particularly prominent case in this class: the smart pizza vending machines that are now spreading across France. Relying on an exclusive and newly constructed database, we examine the diffusion of these machines across over 30,000 French communities. We find that the quality of a community’s internet infrastructure is predictive of its adoption of smart vending technology. Contrary to our expectations, however, neither the large, dense, and most connected urban centers, nor the rural food deserts are the first adopters of these machines: instead, small but well-connected communities are at the vanguard of this technological change. We speculate that these machines are arriving in places with attractive consumer bases and internet conditions, but which lack 24/7 on-demand food options. Our findings highlight the bottom-up conditions that are giving rise to the rapid penetration of IoT technologies, which are sure to have long lasting local impacts. |
| Date: | 2022–08–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ca2f7&r=ure |
| By: | Pina-Sánchez, Jose (University of Leeds); Geneletti, Sara; Veiga, Ana; Morales, Ana; Guilfoyle, Eoin |
| Abstract: | Large research efforts have been directed at the exploration of ethnic disparities in the criminal justice system, documenting harsher treatment of minority ethnic defendants, across offence types, criminal justice decisions, and jurisdictions. However, most studies on the topic have relied on observational data, which can only approximate ‘like with like’ comparisons. As a result, researchers, practitioners and policy-makers have often been wary of interpreting such disparities as evidence of discrimination. We use causal diagrams to lay out explicitly the different ways estimates of ethnic discrimination derived from observational data could be biased. Beyond the commonly acknowledged problem of unobserved case characteristics, we also discuss other less well-known, yet likely more consequential problems: measurement error in the form of racially-determined case characteristics or as a result of high heterogeneity within the ‘Whites’ reference group, and selection bias from non-response and missing offender’s ethnicity data. We apply such causal framework to review findings from two recent studies showing ethnic disparities in custodial sentences imposed at the Crown Court (England and Wales), questioning whether the reported disparities should be interpreted as evidence of discrimination. We also use simulations to recreate the most comprehensive of those studies, and demonstrate how the reported ethnic disparities appear robust to a problem of unobserved case characteristics. We conclude that ethnic disparities observed in the Crown Court are likely reflecting evidence of direct discrimination in sentencing. |
| Date: | 2022–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:k8bsg&r=ure |
| By: | Englmaier, Florian (University of Munich); Muehlheusser, Gerd (University of Hamburg); Roider, Andreas (University of Regensburg); Wallmeier, Niklas (University of Hamburg) |
| Abstract: | We study management practices and performance of public sector organizations in Germany. For a representative sample of municipalities, we provide survey evidence for substantial heterogeneity in the use of structured management practices. This heterogeneity is not driven by differences across states, regional types, or population size. Moreover, we document a systematic positive relationship between the degree of structured management and a diverse set of performance measures capturing municipalities' attractiveness for citizens and firms. Topic modelling (LDA) of survey responses suggests that management styles differ indeed in the extent of structured management, with many municipalities displaying relatively little of it. |
| Keywords: | management practices, public sector organizations, local government, municipal performance, World Management Survey (WMS) |
| JEL: | D20 D73 H11 H73 R50 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15676&r=ure |
| By: | Max Berre (Audencia Business School) |
| Abstract: | While startup valuations are influenced by revenues, risks, age, and macroeconomic conditions, specific causality is traditionally a black box. Because valuations are not disclosed, roles played by other factors (industry, geography, and intellectual property) can often only be guessed at. VC valuation research indicates the importance of establishing a factor-hierarchy to better understand startup valuations and their dynamics, suggesting the wisdom of hiring data-scientists for this purpose. Bespoke understanding can be established via construction of hierarchical prediction models based on decision trees and random forests. These have the advantage of understanding which factors matter most. In combination with OLS, the also tell us the circumstances of when specific causalities apply. This study explores the deterministic role of categorical variables on the valuation of start-ups (i.e. the joint-combination geographic, urban, and sectoral denomination-variables), in order to be able to build a generalized valuation scorecard approach. Using a dataset of 1,091 venture-capital investments, containing 1,044 unique EU and EEA, this study examines microeconomic, sectoral, and local-level impacts on startup valuation. In principle, the study relies on Fixedeffects and Joint-fixed-effects regressions as well as the analysis and exploration of divergent micropopulations and fault-lines by means of non-parametric approaches combining econometric and machinelearning techniques. |
| Date: | 2022–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03829877&r=ure |
| By: | Belloc, Ignacio (University of Zaragoza); Gimenez-Nadal, J. Ignacio (University of Zaragoza); Molina, José Alberto (University of Zaragoza) |
| Abstract: | Climate change and global warming are problems that currently affect the daily lives of the world population and, to the extent that climate projections are less than optimistic, understanding how individuals respond to extreme weather conditions is essential for the correct design of public policies. One of the human behaviors that can be most affected by extreme weather conditions is that of personal travel, including commuting, an activity that is done daily by millions of workers worldwide. Within this framework, we estimate the effects of weather conditions on daily commuting and travel choices, by examining daily variations in weather conditions within counties in the US. To that end, we use timeuse diary information from the American Time Use Survey 2003-2019 and daily weather information at the county level for a sample of US workers, finding significant relationships between daily weather conditions, commuting time, and travel choices. Rainy days, high temperatures, and snowfall are associated with a statistically significant lower proportion of commuting time done by public transit and walking, whereas the relationship is found to be positive for the proportion of commuting time by car. With additional analysis, we find that the greatest substitution from greener modes of transport towards the private car is concentrated on days with greater precipitation and higher temperatures. Finally, our results suggest adaptation to higher temperatures in warmer places. |
| Keywords: | weather, commuting, green mobility, workers, American Time Use Survey |
| JEL: | R4 J22 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15661&r=ure |
| By: | Murray, Cameron (The University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | Hot rental markets generated many popular news headlines during 2022. Australian news consumers have read that “Renters are getting smashed” in Melbourne, and that the rental market is “extremely challenging” in Sydney, and ever that “Renters competing 'Hunger Games-style' as number of rental properties dwindles”.These headlines are certainly very shocking, and no doubt attract clicks. As well as rental data, vacancy rates of rental property is a metric that is commonly quoted in media reports to provide insights into the economic processes happening in the rental market. “National vacancy rates hit record low” was an October 2022 headline. But like all economic data, reported rental prices and vacancy rates need to be properly interpreted. Understanding what these metrics mean in terms of underlying economics is tricky.This note explains how several different popular rental price and housing vacancy metrics are created and provides commentary on how they should be interpreted. A clear explanation of popular rental metrics shows how it can be simultaneously true that the rate of growth of rental prices for new contracts was at record highs in mid-2022, but the average rental price paid across all dwellings was still lower than in 2018. Often different metrics have similar names but measure different things, and subject to different errors and short-term variation, which means caution is needed to use them to interpret underlying economic processes. For example, rental vacancy measures the short-term variation in advertising for rentals and should not be assumed to measure the number of unoccupied dwellings across the housing market. |
| Date: | 2022–10–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:dbgka&r=ure |
| By: | Smith, Michael E. (Arizona State Universityh) |
| Abstract: | I explore the different ways historical and archaeological data can be deployed to contribute to research on urban sustainability science, emphasizing issues of argumentation and epistemology. I organize the discussion around three types of argument. The urban trajectory argument exploits the long time series of early cities and urban regions to examine change at a long time scale. The sample size argument views the role of early cities as adding to the known sample of settlements to increase understanding of urban similarities and differences. The laboratory argument uses data from past cities to explicitly test models derived from contemporary cities. Each argument is examined for three contrasting epistemological approaches: heuristic analogs, focused case studies, and quantitative studies. These approaches form a continuum leading from lesser to greater scientific rigor and from qualitative to quantitative frameworks. Much past-present argumentation requires inductive logic, also called reasoning by analogy. Sustainability scientists have confused this general form of argument with its weakest version, known as heuristic analogs. I stress ways to improve methods of argumentation, particularly by moving research along the continuum from weaker to stronger arguments. |
| Date: | 2022–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:3fy5b&r=ure |
| By: | Wang, Xize (National University of Singapore); Liu, Tao |
| Abstract: | As a vital aspect of individual’s quality of life, mental health has been included as an important component of the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals. This study focuses on a specific aspect of mental health: depression, and examines its relationship with commute patterns. Using survey data from 1,528 residents in Beijing, China, we find that every 10 additional minutes of commute time is associated with 1.1% higher probability of depression. We test for the mechanisms of the commute-depression link and find that commute is associated with depression as a direct stressor rather than triggering higher work stress. When decomposing commute time into mode-specific time, we found that time on mopeds/motorcycles has the strongest association with depression. Moreover, the commute-depression associations are stronger for older workers and blue-collar workers. Hence, policies that could reduce commute time, encourage work from home, improve job-housing balance or increase motorcyclists’ safety would help promote mental health. |
| Date: | 2022–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:dj8av&r=ure |
| By: | Park, Yujin (Chung-Ang University); Zhao, Qunshan; Guldmann, Jean-Michel; Wentz, Elizabeth |
| Abstract: | Shading is an effective heat-mitigation strategy, with tree and building shades naturally cooling down heated surfaces, especially in a hot-arid climate. However, increasing shades through tree planting and building arrangement often implies opportunity costs, such as water/maintenance costs for trees and loss of solar access for buildings. It is thus important to better quantify the cooling effectiveness of shade to make strategic decisions. Urban landscape involving trees and buildings creates shades of varying size and location at different times. This study examines the extent to which shade reduces land surface temperature (LST) by considering its areal coverage, overall duration, and time of day in a hot arid residential environment. Based on a fine-resolution 3D surface model (1m/pixel), land cover classification (1m/pixel), and high-resolution thermal imagery (6m/pixel) for Tempe, Arizona, USA, hourly shade calculations are conducted from 7:30 to 13:30 on July 12, 2011. The relationships among the observed LST at 13:30, land cover types, and shade characteristics are analyzed using linear and spatial regression. The results show that the cooling effect of shade is cumulative, rather than instantaneous, as surface cooling by earlier shade persists to some degree to later times. An area of 6×6m can generate a LST reduction of 2.3℃ at 13:30 if that area shifted from zero to 100% shade in the early morning. The same shift in shade for the whole morning and the entire period (7:30-13:30) would lower LST by 8.3℃ and 11.3℃, respectively. The importance of temporal shade planning for urban heat mitigation is discussed. |
| Date: | 2022–10–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:hbxsy&r=ure |
| By: | Tomasiello, Diego Bogado; Santos, Daniel Herszenhut Meirelles; Oliveira, João Lucas Albuquerque; Braga, Carlos Kaue Vieira; Pereira, Rafael H. M. |
| Abstract: | Cumulative accessibility measures allow one to estimate the number of opportunities that can be reached within a given travel time threshold. They have become the most commonly used metric in transport research and planning because of how simple it makes to calculate and communicate accessibility results. However, cumulative opportunity measures require an ad-hoc choice of a single travel time threshold, which can importantly influence the conclusions of transport project evaluations and equity analyses. In this paper, we introduce the time interval cumulative accessibility measure, a new accessibility metric that mitigates the impacts of arbitrary choices of trip duration on cumulative accessibility analyses while keeping its computation and communicability advantages. The proposed indicator estimates the average or the median number of opportunities that can be reached considering multiple minute-by-minute travel time cutoffs within a given travel time interval. We demonstrate the new metric in a case study assessing how a planned subway expansion will likely impact employment accessibility in Fortaleza, Brazil. Using sensitivity analyses with Monte Carlo simulations, we demonstrate that the selection of travel time thresholds can substantially bias the results of accessibility levels and that such biases are not evenly distributed in space, having important implications for equity analyses. We also show that the proposed time interval cumulative opportunity metric makes the results of accessibility estimates and inequality analyses significantly less sensitive to ad-hoc methodological choices while yielding results that are very similar to those found with traditional threshold-based cumulative measures. Future accessibility-oriented transport research and planning could greatly benefit from the way in which the proposed time interval cumulative opportunity measure provides more robust accessibility estimates without compromising the communicability of results. |
| Date: | 2022–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ux5ah&r=ure |
| By: | Lockwood, Ben (University of Warwick); Porcelli, Francesco (University of Bari and CAGE); Redoano, Michela (University of Warwick); Schiavone, Antonio (University of Bologna) |
| Abstract: | We exploit the introduction of an open data online platform - part of a transparency program initiated by the Italian Government in late 2014 - as a natural experiment to analyse the effect of data disclosure on mayors’ expenditure and public good provision. First, we analyse the effect of the program by comparing municipalities on the border between ordinary and special regions, exploiting the fact that the latter regions did not participate in the program. We find that mayors in ordinary regions immediately change their behaviour after data disclosure by improving the disclosed indicators, and that the reaction depends also on their initial relative performance, a yardstick competition effect. Second, we investigate the effect of mayors’ attention to data disclosure within treated regions by tracking their daily accesses to the platform, which we instrument with the daily publication of newspaper articles mentioning the program. We find that mayors react to data disclosure by decreasing spending via a reduction of service provision, resulting in an aggregate decrease in efficiency. Overall, mayors seem to target variables that are disclosed on the website at the expense of variables that are less salient. |
| Keywords: | open data ; local government ; media coverage ; OpenCivitas JEL Codes: H72 ; H79 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:wqapec:17&r=ure |
| By: | Monroy-Gómez-Franco, Luis Angel (The City College of New York) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I show how the decomposition of intergenerational persistence indicators into their structural and positional components allows to gain a better understanding of the determinants of the heterogeneity in intergenerational mobility at the subnational level. The crucial element for the separate analysis of positional and structural mobility is the use of regionally defined instead of nationally defined quantiles. This constitutes a departure of the current consensus in the estimations of mobility rates at the subnational level in economics. Using the Mexican case as an example, I show that in terms of positional mobility, there are no significant differences across the regions of the country. This contrast with the existing results and their interpretations, particularly regarding intergenerational mobility in the south region of the country. This highlights the importance of incorporating positional measures into the battery of tools used for intranational analysis. |
| Date: | 2022–08–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:zgfvk&r=ure |
| By: | Nygaard, Christian; van den Nouwelant, Ryan; Glackin, Stephen; Martin, Chris; Sisson, Alistair |
| Abstract: | This study investigated how filtering contributes to market-provided low-income housing in Australia. It critiques the conceptualisation of filtering as a source of housing for low-income households, tests for the presence of filtering dynamics in housing markets (using Melbourne and Sydney as case studies) and considers policy options for enhancing (if so desired) filtering as a policy tool. Filtering is a market-based process whereby the supply of new, higher quality dwellings for higher- and middle-income households may also lead to additional supply of dwellings for lower income households. As properties age and their perceived quality drops, over time they move down the economic hierarchy through successively lower market segments or sub-markets, becoming a supply of ‘naturally occurring affordable housing’. Research into Melbourne and Sydney market dynamics found filtering is incompatible as a reliable source of additional affordable housing for low-income households in Australian cities. To enhance the role that filtering can play in the provision of affordable housing for low-income households, both more supply and more responsiveness of new supply to market signals are needed. In addition, Policy options to better enable filtering to generate a supply of affordable housing for low-income households are likely to be impractical and politically undesirable. |
| Date: | 2022–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ph8as&r=ure |
| By: | Linsenmeier, Manuel |
| Abstract: | This study estimates causal effects of temperature variability on long-run economic development, which are not accounted for in most estimates of the costs of future climate change. For identification I use a novel research design based on spatial first-differences. Economic activity is proxied by nightlights. Informed by the underlying physical mechanisms, I distinguish between day-to-day, seasonal, and interannual variability. The results suggest an economically large and statistically significant negative effect of day-to-day variability on economic activity. Regarding seasonal variability, I find a smaller but also negative effect. The estimated effect of interannual variability is positive at low and negative at high temperatures. These effects are robust, they can be identified in urban and rural areas, and they cannot be explained with the spatial distribution of agriculture. The results suggest that temperature variability will add to the costs of anthropogenic climate change, especially in relatively warm and currently relatively poor regions. |
| Date: | 2021–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:xvucn&r=ure |
| By: | Andrew F. Haughwout; Donghoon Lee; Daniel Mangrum; Joelle Scally; Wilbert Van der Klaauw |
| Abstract: | Total household debt balances continued their upward climb in the third quarter of 2022 with an increase of $351 billion, the largest nominal quarterly increase since 2007. This rise was driven by a $282 billion increase in mortgage balances, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt & Credit from the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data. Mortgages, historically the largest form of household debt, now comprise 71 percent of outstanding household debt balances, up from 69 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019. An increase in credit card balances was also a boost to the total debt balances, with credit card balances up $38 billion from the previous quarter. On a year-over-year basis, this marked a 15 percent increase, the largest in more than twenty years. Here, we take a closer look at the variation in credit card trends for different demographics of borrowers using our Consumer Credit Panel (CCP), which is based on credit reports from Equifax. |
| Keywords: | consumer credit; panel; credit cards |
| JEL: | D14 |
| Date: | 2022–11–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:95102&r=ure |
| By: | William Gatt (Central Bank of Malta) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses Bayesian techniques and Maltese data over the period 2001–2019 to estimate the parameters of MEDSEA-FIN, one of the Central Bank of Malta’s DSGE models. The model captures linkages between the housing sector, banks and the rest of the economy via a borrowing collateral constraint. The paper shows that the data is informative on a subset of the parameters, and documents that the dynamic properties of the estimated model are in line with similar DSGE models estimated for other countries. The results corroborate recent empirical findings for Malta documented in other studies. The model is used to decompose recent macroeconomic data and shows that housing demand shocks were important drivers of house prices and credit. Shocks from the euro area also drove a significant share of macroeconomic fluctuations. The paper also shows that the model survives external validation tests. Although the model remains somewhat stylized along some dimensions, estimation makes it suitable for policy analysis related to housing and credit markets and associated macroprudential policies. |
| JEL: | C11 C32 C51 E21 E32 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mlt:wpaper:0522&r=ure |
| By: | Acuff, Christopher |
| Abstract: | Despite the relative infrequency of successful city-county consolidation campaigns, local government officials and reformers continue revisiting the possibilities and perceived benefits associated with consolidation. While studies analyzing campaigns for and against consolidation efforts exist, little is known beyond factors at the city and/or county level. For this reason, it is important dig deeper and explore the differences at smaller geographic levels. Utilizing demographic, geographic, and electoral data, this study examines the factors that contribute to support (or opposition) to consolidation at the voting precinct-level in reform efforts over the last two decades. Results indicate that factors related to higher levels of education, home values, and larger Hispanic populations tend to increase the vote share in favor of consolidation, while areas with larger median household incomes tend to show lower levels of support. These findings help extend our understanding of boundary change and voting in local referenda in the United States. |
| Date: | 2022–08–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:pb7ug&r=ure |
| By: | Aksoy, Cevat Giray; Barrero, Jose Maria (Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico); Bloom, Nick; Davis, Steven J.; Dolls, Mathias; Zarate, Pablo |
| Abstract: | The pandemic triggered a large, lasting shift to work from home (WFH). To study this shift, we survey full-time workers who finished primary school in 27 countries as of mid 2021 and early 2022. Our cross-country comparisons control for age, gender, education, and industry and treat the U.S. mean as the baseline. We find, first, that WFH averages 1.5 days per week in our sample, ranging widely across countries. Second, employers plan an average of 0.7 WFH days per week after the pandemic, but workers want 1.7 days. Third, employees value the option to WFH 2-3 days per week at 5 percent of pay, on average, with higher valuations for women, people with children and those with longer commutes. Fourth, most employees were favorably surprised by their WFH productivity during the pandemic. Fifth, looking across individuals, employer plans for WFH levels after the pandemic rise strongly with WFH productivity surprises during the pandemic. Sixth, looking across countries, planned WFH levels rise with the cumulative stringency of government-mandated lockdowns during the pandemic. We draw on these results to explain the big shift to WFH and to consider some implications for workers, organization, cities, and the pace of innovation. |
| Date: | 2022–09–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:q4dyg&r=ure |
| By: | Pawson, Hal; Martin, Chris; Lawson, Julie; Whelan, Stephen; Aminpour, Fatemeh |
| Abstract: | This research reviewed first homebuyer (FHB) assistance programs in Australia and seven comparator countries: Canada, Finland, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, Singapore and the UK. It considered to what degree such assistance are effective in expanding access to home ownership to those whose entry would be otherwise delayed or impossible, or in making more affordable and less risky the cost of home ownership. Current Australian first homebuyer assistance measures primarily act to bring forward first home purchase for households already close to doing so, rather than opening home-ownership access to households otherwise excluded. In doing so, these measures add to demand and hence to house prices. An ‘effective’ FHB-assistance mechanism or instrument is one that can be credited with ‘additionality’, as it makes first home ownership possible for people who would be otherwise excluded or—in fact far more likely—significantly accelerates access to owner-occupation. An ‘efficient’ initiative is one that is effective at an acceptably modest unit cost and with minimum administrative complexity. FHB interventions can be demand-side or supply side measures. A demand-side intervention involves a benefit directly received by the consumer, effectively boosting FHB-purchasing power, and include homebuyer grants and tax concessions, low-deposit mortgage products and shared equity arrangements). Supply-side interventions directly relate to the provision or use of housing; this covers the disposal of government-owned assets, funding channelled through property developers or suppliers, and regulatory instruments that affect housing production or use of housing assets. The eight countries assessed have substantial diversity in terms of policy approaches to supporting home ownership; supply-side approaches are more common in a number of comparator countries. Australia stands out as it is overwhelmingly reliant on demand-side instruments and lacks a strategic framework. |
| Date: | 2022–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:mjbv8&r=ure |
| By: | Nassal, Lea Maria; Paul, Marie |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effects of long-distance moves of married couples on both spouses' earnings, employment and job characteristics based on a new administrative dataset from Germany. Employing difference-in-difference propensity score matching and accounting for spouses' premove employment biographies, we show that men's earnings increase significantly after the move, whereas women suffer large losses in the first years. Men's earnings increases are mainly driven by increasing wages and switches to slightly larger and better paying firms. Investigating effect heterogeneity with respect to pre-move relative earnings or for whose job opportunity couples move, confirms strong gender asymmetries in gains to moving. |
| Keywords: | Long-distance moves,labor market careers,gender gap |
| JEL: | J61 J16 R23 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:973&r=ure |
| By: | François-Xavier de Vaujany (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Stefan Haefliger (City University London); Paula Ungureanu (UNIMORE - Università degli Studi di Modena e Reggio Emilia) |
| Abstract: | The adventure of the Research Group on Collaborative Spaces (RGCS) started as a working group in 2014. Gathering researchers from Paris, London and Montreal, it aimed at exploring and understanding further collaborative spaces and their relationships through multiple dimensions (work, innovation, management, knowledge, urban geography, competitive advantage, mobility, etc.). People from different fields (e.g.,management, organization studies, sociology of work, urban sociology, economic geography, philosophy, anthropology...) joined what was and still is a very exciting discussion. As "spaces and places whose facilities, aesthetics codes, temporalities, enacted values, atmospheres, and spatial configurations are aimed at fostering horizontal collaborations" (de Vaujany et al., 2018: 102), "collaborative spaces" pervade urban landscapes and more and more, our countryside. Coworking spaces, makerspaces, Fablabs, hackerspaces and labs in general, both internal or external (independent) embody and condense the search for open collaborations and horizontality which has been for along time at the heart our societies and their ‘management'. |
| Date: | 2022–10–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03827462&r=ure |
| By: | Fan, Huiying; Lu, Hongyu; Guin, Angshuman; Watkins, Kari E; Guensler, Randall |
| Abstract: | Many transit providers changed their schedules and route configurations during the COVID-19 pandemic, providing more frequent bus service on major routes and curtailing other routes, to reduce the risk of COVID-19 exposure. This research first assessed the changes in MARTA service configurations by reviewing the pre-pandemic vs. during-pandemic General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) files. Energy use per route for a typical week was calculated for pre-pandemic, during-closure, and post-closure periods by integrating GTFS data with MOVES-Matrix transit energy and emission rates. MARTA automated passenger count (APC) data were appended to the routes, and the energy use per passenger mile was compared across routes for the three periods. The results showed that the coupled effect of shift in transit frequency and decrease in ridership from 2019 to 2020 increased route-level energy use for more than 87% of the routes and per-passenger mile energy use for more than 98% of the routes. In 2021, although MARTA service had largely returned to pre-pandemic conditions, ridership remained in an early stage of recovery. Total energy use decreased to about the pre-pandemic level, but per-passenger energy use remained higher than pre-pandemic for more than 91% of the routes. The results confirm that while total energy use is more closely associated with trip schedules and routes, per-passenger energy use depends on both trip service and ridership. The results also indicated a need for data-based transit planning, to help avoid inefficiency associated with over-provision of service or inadequate social distancing protection caused by under-provision of service. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Transit service, transit energy use, pandemic, pandemic recovery, transit ridership |
| Date: | 2022–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt2x1320p5&r=ure |
| By: | Zhaoyingzi Dong; Siqi Sun; Pierre-Alexandre Balland; Weiwen Zhang |
| Abstract: | Accelerating the development of green technologies is essential to achieve a green transition, but green technologies tend to be more radical and complex. It means that they require significant efforts to scale and we need to understand all possible levers of green technological change. In this paper, we investigate whether environmental regulation can provide opportunities for path-breakthrough and complex technology diversification during the green transition process. The analysis is based on patenting activities in Chinese cities from 2003 to 2016. Our results show that cities with tighter environmental regulations are more likely to branch into new green technology spaces. In addition, environmental regulations help cities enter less related and more complex green domains. This study provides significant policy implications for the green transition literature. |
| Keywords: | Environmental regulation; Technology diversification; Green innovation; Relatedness; Complexity |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2226&r=ure |
| By: | Thoresen, Stian; O'Brien, Patricia; O’Donovan, Mary-Ann; Walter, Brontë; Mueller, Arne; Westermann, Greta; Whittle, Erin; Buchanan, Angus |
| Abstract: | This research investigated Individual Supported Living (ISL) arrangements, which have been developed to provide appropriate and preferred homes for persons with intellectual disabilities and high support needs. ISL may take different forms. It is not focussed solely on the physical housing setting, as the nature of supports available to the individual is central to the model. It may include a mix of formal and informal supports, as well as opportunities for individual growth and development across a range of social and community roles tailored to the needs, preferences, strengths, vulnerabilities and ambitions of the individual. The ISL Framework is built around three fundamental assumptions: All adults with disabilities can live in an ISL arrangement if they are provided with the appropriate supports. Persons with disabilities do not have to live together. Persons with disabilities in an ISL arrangement do not have to live alone or independently. Study participants highlighted the benefits of quality ISL arrangements and the challenges in developing and maintaining them. Coordination of disability and housing policies and practices will enhance the sustainability of these arrangements. This includes the need to recognise and coordinate access to affordable and suitable housing, as well as in-home support. Three interrelated areas for further policy development were identified in addition to the need for a national framework and guidance to support the establishment and continuation of ISL arrangements. |
| Date: | 2022–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:a4p3h&r=ure |
| By: | Monroy-Gómez-Franco, Luis Angel (The City College of New York) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I propose a new framework for analysing the short and long-run effects of temporary educational disruptions on the learning progression of children. The framework integrates into a coherent model recent advances in the literature on learning acquisition (Kaffenberger, 2021; Kaffenberger and Pritchett, 2020b, 2021) and the literature on estimating the immediate costs of instructional disruptions (Neidhöfer et al., 2021). The integrated framework includes explicit modelling of continuous parental investments, filling a gap in the literature related to the Potential Pedagogical Function and other explicit models of learning progression and acquisition. In the same way, the model considers the role of economic resources as part of the resources employed by parents to mitigate the effects of a temporary shock in instruction., expanding the notion of attenuation capacity developed by Neidhöfer et al. (2021). Finally, I take this framework to the data to estimate the potential effects of the instructional disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico. The estimates suggest that, for the Mexican cohort affected by the instructional disruption, the potential persistent loss in learning with respect to the counterfactual lies on average between 20% and 90% of the learning acquired during a usual school year, depending on the effectiveness of the remote learning policies implemented during 2020 and 2021. These results already consider the mitigating role of parental investments. Furthermore, my results suggest substantial variation between inhabitants from different regions of the country and inside inhabitants of the same region, being the South of the country the region where the losses are the largest. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper) |
| Date: | 2022–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:kvtjd&r=ure |
| By: | Dodini, Samuel (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Løken, Katrine (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Willén, Alexander (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | This paper isolates the impact of labor market competition on firms, workers, and communities. A shock to labor mobility from Sweden to Norway caused a substantial increase in labor competition for Swedish firms on the border with Norway. Using unique register data linked across the two countries, we show that Swedish firms respond by raising wages and reducing their workforces. The retained workers are of lower quality, resulting in a drop in value added and an increasing probability of market exit. Communities experience population flight, declining business activity, increased inequality, and increased support for worker protection parties. Norwegian firms benefit through cheaper labor costs, and there is evidence of Norwegian workers being displaced. The communities see increased support for anti-integration parties. We conclude that shocks to labor market competition, while benefiting certain workers, may have detrimental effects on local communities due to adverse effects on firm survival and business activity. |
| Keywords: | Labor Market Competition; Outside Options; Labor Mobility; Inequality; Community Development |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J42 J61 J62 |
| Date: | 2022–11–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2022_017&r=ure |
| By: | Bruno Venditto (Institute for Studies on the Mediterranean – ISMed-CNR); Ndumba J. Kamwanyah (University of Namibia, UNAM); Christian H. Nekare (University of Namibia, UNAM) |
| Abstract: | Scientists are in agreement that climate change is a real threat to people and the planet, worldwide. Human activities are believed to be the primary cause for this change. In countries, such as Namibia, in which the majority of people in rural areas largely depend on rainfed agriculture and water resources for their livelihood, the rapid changing climate may mean that more people will likely move to the urban centres, no matter restrictive migration measures in place. The intricate relationship between climate change and human mobility, however, is a phenomenon not yet very well-articulated or established. In Namibia, while migrating to an urban area in some instances might offer potential opportunities -in the form of employment, better economic status and standard of living for migrants- but the move not only comes with negative effects and challenges for the migrants but also for urban governance in delivering services to the increasing urban masses. This study used a hybrid methodological approach by which a critical analysis and the consolidation of the existing literature on climate change, migration and urbanisation was combined and complemented with supplementary in-depth interviews carried out with 13 participants with a migratory background. The objective of the study was to investigates the nexus between climate change and migration, and subsequently examines the relevance of climate induced rural-urban mobility in Namibia. The findings of the study indicate that Namibia’s increasing changing climate patterns magnifies the existing problems of rural-urban migration, resulting in Namibia’s internal migration phenomenon to be determined by more than the usual factors of rural-urban migration. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, urbanisation, migration, Namibia |
| JEL: | O15 O55 Q54 R11 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:awm:wpaper:14&r=ure |
| By: | Alvero, AJ; Luqueño, Leslie; Pearman, Francis; antonio, anthony lising |
| Abstract: | To answer questions about the relationships between intersectionality, geography, and textual production, we analyze a corpus of essays written by every in-state Latinx identifying applicant (n = 254,820 essays submitted by 83,538 applicants) to the University of California system over two admissions cycles (2015-2017). After computationally modeling the essay content and style of the essays, we then predict different identity characteristics of applicants and spatial characteristics of their school communities. Essay content and style are very strong predictors of nearly all of the different outcomes and data compared and are stronger than previously reported results on similar data. We complement these results with an analysis of applicants that were misclassified in our studies and found that first gen., low income women from areas with high proportions of White residents and lower median income had the highest rates of misclassification. |
| Date: | 2022–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:pt6b2&r=ure |
| By: | Martin Guzi; Martin Kahanec; Lucia Mýtna Kureková |
| Abstract: | Across European Union (EU) labor markets, immigrant and native populations exhibit disparate labor market outcomes, signifying widespread labor market hierarchies. While significant resources have been invested in migration and integration policies, it remains unclear whether these contribute to or mitigate labor market hierarchies between natives and immigrants. Using a longitudinal model based on individual-level EU LFS and country-level DEMIG POLICY and POLMIG databases, we explore variation in changes of immigration and integration policies across Western EU member states to study how they are associated with labor market hierarchies in terms of unemployment and employment quality gaps between immigrant and native populations. Our findings imply that designing less restrictive policies may help mitigate immigrant-native labor market hierarchies by reducing existing labor market disadvantages of immigrants and making the most of their potential. |
| Keywords: | decomposition, immigrant-native gaps, labor market, DEMIG POLICY database, immigrant integration, hierarchies |
| JEL: | J15 J18 J61 K37 |
| Date: | 2022–11–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:dpaper:62&r=ure |
| By: | Guivis Zeufack Nkemgha (University of Bamenda, Bamenda, Cameroon); Tii N. Nchofoung (University of Dschang, Cameroon); Fabien Sundjo (University of Bamenda, Bamenda, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | Examining the value-added link between infrastructure and industrialization is fundamental to achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 9, which consists of building resilient infrastructure, promoting inclusive and sustainable industrialization and fostering innovation. The objectives of this paper are to analyse the effect of infrastructures on industrialisation and how financial development and human capital modulate this effect in 33 African countries during the period 2003-2019 through the system GMM methodology. The results show that infrastructural development has a direct enhancing effect on industrialisation in Africa. When the indirect effect regressions through the modulating effects of financial development and human capital are considered, the net effects are equally positive though the results vary across the different specifications of infrastructure and the specific transmission channel considered. For instance, the indirect effect through the interaction of electricity and transport infrastructures with financial development and human capital produced a negative net effect. The thresholds of financial development and human capital required to nullify these negative effects are provided and practical policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | infrastructures, industrialization, financial development, human capital |
| JEL: | H54 L60 O55 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:22/091&r=ure |
| By: | Molina, Renato; Rudik, Ivan (Cornell University) |
| Abstract: | Hurricanes are among the costliest natural disasters in the world, with a significant portion of their impact linked to whether forecasts can accurately predict hurricanes’ intensity and path. In this paper, we estimate the economic impacts of the official hurricane forecasts in the US and the value of improving them. We reconstruct county-level forecasts of storm track, wind speed, and precipitation for all major hurricanes in the US from 2005 to 2021, and we link them with data on hurricane damages and federal emergency expenditures to either protect or recover from hurricanes. We find that protective expenditures exponentially increase with the forecast wind speed and with the degree of uncertainty about the forecast. Correspondingly, we find that forecast errors are costly: underestimating wind speed can result in damages up to an order of magnitude larger than if the forecast had been accurate. Finally, we estimate the marginal social value of improving forecasts and find that for the average county, a reduction in forecast uncertainty by one standard deviation would reduce total protective expenditures and subsequent damages by over half a million dollars. This value is larger for higher-intensity storms or when conditions make forecasts more uncertain. Our results suggest that forecast improvements since 2009 have generated benefits that are orders of magnitude greater than the cumulative budget for operating and improving the hurricane forecast system. |
| Date: | 2022–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:sqtjr&r=ure |
| By: | Martin Guzi (Masaryk University, CELSI, IZA and GLO); Martin Kahanec (Central European University, CELSI, University of Economics in Bratislava, and GLO); Lucia Mýtna Kureková (Institute for Forecasting, Centre of Social and Psychological Sciences, Slovak Academy of Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Across European Union (EU) labor markets, immigrant and native populations exhibit disparate labor market outcomes, signifying widespread labor market hierarchies. While significant resources have been invested in migration and integration policies, it remains unclear whether these contribute to or mitigate labor market hierarchies between natives and immigrants. Using a longitudinal model based on individual-level EU LFS and country-level DEMIG POLICY and POLMIG databases, we explore variation in changes of immigration and integration policies across Western EU member states to study how they are associated with labor market hierarchies in terms of unemployment and employment quality gaps between immigrant and native populations. Our findings imply that designing less restrictive policies may help mitigate immigrant-native labor market hierarchies by reducing existing labor market disadvantages of immigrants and making the most of their potential. |
| Keywords: | decomposition, immigrant-native gaps, labor market, DEMIG POLICY database, immigrant integration, hierarchies. |
| JEL: | J15 J18 J61 K37 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mub:wpaper:2022-12&r=ure |
| By: | Adhikari, Tamanna (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | Ongoing inflationary conditions will reduce real incomes of those households whose wage growth is not in line with the increase in prices. In this Note, I measure the effect of general expenditure inflation on households’ mortgage repayment capacity. By defining a basket of essential items, I assess the availability of income after essential expenditure that remains to service mortgage payments, before and after an inflationary shock. The baseline and downside scenarios for 2022, in which inflation significantly exceeds nominal income growth, could lead to distress levels increasing by one-quarter to one-third respectively. Simulations show disproportionate increases in risk for lower-income, rural and older mortgage holders. Using supervisory data on Irish-domiciled non-public debt MMFs (i.e., LVNAVs and VNAVs), we provide robust graphical and econometric evidence indicating that MMFs voluntarily holding more Public-Debt Assets (PDAs) than required by MMF regulations, experienced lower outflows during the COVID-19 crisis. There is also evidence of resilience effects associated with having deposit buffers above requirements. |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:fsnote:6/fs/22&r=ure |
| By: | McCann, Mark (University of Glasgow); Mitchell, Kirstin; Broccatelli, Chiara; Purcell, Carrie; Simpson, Sharon; McDaid, Lisa; Elliott, Lawrie; Moore, Laurence |
| Abstract: | Background: The traditional focus of adolescent sexual behaviour research is on risk and adverse outcomes and on first vaginal intercourse as a portent of risk. This preoccupation with first sex limits research on social processes of sexual development and is out of step with the contemporary reality of young people’s early sexual experiences in which vaginal sex (if it happens at all) often follows a wide range of intimate and sexual experiences. Aim: With an innovative approach combining latent class analysis and social network analysis, we assessed how sexual knowledge, positive norm adherence, confidence and sexual activity are patterned across school-year social networks and explored the extent to which individualist and social influence theories could explain these patterns. Methods: We analysed cross-sectional survey data from 10 school year-group (students age 14-16) from the STis And Sexual Health (STASH) feasibility study. Students completed measures on sexual health knowledge, norms, confidence and behaviours, and named up to six friends in their year group. We used Latent Class Analysis to categorise patterns of sexual behaviour, and Exponential Random Graph Models to assess how sexual behaviour, knowledge, norms and confidence related to friendship ties. Results: Of 1,446 students 21% (n=309) did not report any sexual experience (inactive), 42% (602) reported some sexual experience but not oral or vaginal sex, and 22% (323) had oral and/or vaginal sex. Friendship ties were more likely between students who had similar levels of competencies (knowledge, norms and confidence). Friendships were also more likely between students who were sexually inactive (OR 1.73 95% CI 1.54, 1.95), and between students who reported oral/vaginal sex (OR 1.77 95% CI 1.46, 2.15). Active but not oral/vaginal sex students were slightly less likely (OR 0.86 95% CI 0.75, 0.99) to have friendship ties with each other. Interpretation: Our findings suggest that peer influence operating on sexual health competencies may occur independently of current sexual behaviour and there may not be strong naturally occurring social influence process to initiate pre-intercourse sexual behaviours. Our findings suggest that sexual health interventions acting on network influences are justified and that the focus of such interventions should shift from first intercourse to patterning of developing sexual repertoires. |
| Date: | 2022–10–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:upx27&r=ure |
| By: | Dany Bahar; Bo Cowgill; Jorge Guzman |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that providing undocumented immigrants with an immigration pardon, or amnesty, increases their economic activity in the form of higher entrepreneurship. Using administrative census data linked to the complete formal business registry, we study a 2018 policy shift in Colombia that made nearly half a million Venezuelan undocumented migrants eligible for a pardon. Our identification uses quasi-random variation in the amount of time available to get the pardon, introducing a novel regression discontinuity approach to study this policy. Receiving the pardon has small initial effects but raises formal firm formation to close to parity with native Colombians by 2022. This impact is concentrated on individuals active in the labor force, and on sole proprietorships rather than sociedades (limited liability entities). The new firms created include both employer and non-employer firms and are relatively low on assets. In panel data specifications, the effect of the pardon on firm formation is twice the effect of migration. Our heterogeneous effects suggest a mechanism whereby legalization induces greater investments of time in developing new firms. |
| JEL: | J26 K37 L26 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30624&r=ure |
| By: | Gaurav Dhamija (Indian Institute of Technology, Hyderabad); Gitanjali Sen (Department Of Economics, Shiv Nadar University) |
| Abstract: | Background: Changes in climatic conditions have increased the variability in rainfall patterns worldwide. A negative rainfall shock faced by children in the initial 1000 days of life and the resulting malnutrition can harm the likelihood of children’s survival, overall growth, development of the brain, motor skills, and cognitive abilities, leading to poor performance in education and labor market. While the existing findings about the long-run outcomes are mixed, it is essential to understand the nuances in such an estimation. Methods: Using the exogenous variation in rainfall in India, we estimate the impact of adverse shocks at birth on the cognitive abilities of children at ages 5, 8, 12, and 15, on educational attainments, and the likelihood of studying STEM at higher secondary school. Results: The Young Lives Survey data from Andhra Pradesh, India, presents evidence of the negative impact of rainfall shocks at birth on cognitive abilities from age 5 to 8, attenuating at age 12. Using nationally representative data, while we investigate the impact of adverse rainfall shocks at birth on academic performance measured by the high school grades and STEM choice at higher secondary school, we do not find a persistent impact. Conclusion: We unfold the impact of rainfall shocks on a chain of outcomes connected to long-run educational pursuits, as it helps to identify the most crucial stage for policymaking. Since STEM subjects are strongly associated with the labor market, connecting the association with early life shocks seems to be an essential addition to the literature. While we find evidence of reduced cognitive abilities in the early years, those do not seem to persist in the long run. The potential sample selection or attrition biases and the estimates of those biases can explain the nuances of estimating the long-run impact of adverse shocks at birth. |
| Keywords: | Rainfall shocks, Education, STEM, Cognitive Development, Young Lives, India. |
| JEL: | I1 I3 I25 I28 J1 O2 |
| Date: | 2022–10–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:alr:wpaper:2022-05&r=ure |
| By: | Jonathon Hazell; Christina Patterson; Heather Sarsons; Bledi Taska |
| Abstract: | How do firms set wages across space? Using job-level vacancy data and a survey of HR managers, we show that 40-50% of a job’s posted wages are identical across locations within a firm. Moreover, nominal posted wages within the firm vary relatively little with local prices, a pattern we verify with other measures of job level wages. Using the co-movement of wage growth across establishments, we argue these patterns reflect national wage setting---a significant minority of firms choose to set the same nominal wage for a job across all their establishments, despite varying local labor market conditions. |
| JEL: | J3 J31 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30623&r=ure |
| By: | Gitanjali Sen (Department Of Economics, Shiv Nadar University); Dhanushka Thamarapani (California State University) |
| Abstract: | In response to curtailing girls from prematurely dropping out of schools, we show that inducing economic empowerment of the girl child is possible with targeted policies that promote her reproductive empowerment. Using a conditional cash transfer program (Kanyashree Prakalpa) implemented in West Bengal, India that directly incentivized school attendance to delay child marriage, we find a strong association between the program participation and successfully lowering the historically higher dropout rates post-Middle School. The program eligible girls are 12 percent (7 percent) more likely to be enrolled in or complete Secondary (Higher Secondary) School. Program participation is associated with approximately 5 more months of education. In fact, the efficacy of the program is highly correlated with the length of exposure and the most benefits are reaped by children in the poorest households. We discuss three policy interventions, including directly targeting girls, as they embark on transitioning from childhood to young adulthood. |
| Keywords: | Education, Enrollment, India, Cash Transfers, Kanyashree |
| JEL: | I25 I28 O53 |
| Date: | 2022–10–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:alr:wpaper:2022-04&r=ure |
| By: | Anna Matysiak (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Daniela Bellani (Scuola Normale Superiore, Florence); Honorata Bogusz (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences) |
| Abstract: | In this study we examine whether the long-term structural changes in the labour market, driven by automation, affect fertility. Adoption of industrial robots in the EU has tripled since the mid-1990s, tremendously changing the conditions of participating in the labour market. On the one hand, new jobs are created, benefitting largely the highly skilled workers. On the other hand, the growing turnover in the labour market and changing content of jobs induce fears of job displacement and make workers continuously adjust to new requirements (reskill, upskill, increase work efforts). The consequences of these changes are particularly strong for the employment and earning prospects of the low and middle educated workers. Our focus is on six European countries: Czechia, France, Germany, Italy, Poland and the United Kingdom. We link regional data on fertility and employment structures by industry from Eurostat (NUTS-2) with data on robot adoption from the International Federation of Robotics. We estimate fixed effects linear models with instrumental variables in order to account for the external shocks which may affect fertility and robot adoption in parallel. Our findings suggest robots tend to exert a negative impact on fertility in highly industrialised regions, regions with relatively low educated populations and those which are technologically less advanced. At the same time, better educated and prospering regions may even experience fertility improvements as a result of the technological change. The family and labour market institutions of the country may further moderate these effects. |
| Keywords: | fertility, employment, industrial robots, technological change, Europe |
| JEL: | J11 J13 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2022-26&r=ure |
| By: | Alperovych, Yan; Divakaruni, Anantha; Le Grand, François |
| Abstract: | We document public welfare spending as an important growth driver of FinTech lending. Examining the massive austerity-led cuts to local welfare spending initiated by the UK government in 2010, we show that the gradual uneven rollback of the local welfare state since then is strongly associated with a rise in demand for peer-to-peer (P2P) consumer loans among affected areas, primarily in areas facing more banking and digital exclusion. P2P loans issued in austerity-affected areas are more expensive compared to those issued in unaffected areas, consistent with the P2P platform’s risk pricing sensitivity to higher default rates in affected areas. Overall, our findings show that P2P lending, as an alternative means to household finance, can help smooth cuts in welfare transfers particularly among households in economically deprived areas. |
| Date: | 2022–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:atsk9&r=ure |
| By: | Rowley, Steven; Leishman, Chris; Olatunji, Oluwole; Zuo, Jian; Crowe, Adam |
| Abstract: | This research examined how policy settings and new construction technologies and processes affect developer decisions to provide private sector housing supply and might improve affordability. The complexity of the development process, the structure of development organisations, the variety of products delivered, and land ownership issues mean the development decision-making process varies by organisation and site by site. Therefore, it is too simplistic to assume policy settings will have exactly the same impact on each and every developer and on each and every site. Development projects can take many years and generally developers estimate what their products would sell for in the current market using comparable evidence to determine potential sales prices and then apply a revenue escalation figure to try and forecast the actual sales price on project completion. This is fraught with difficulty due to price fluctuations even in the short term, let alone on development projects which may span 10 years. Developers usually adopt a conservative approach to price escalation to avoid overestimating revenues and delivering inflated return projections. The second biggest risk factor identified by interviewees was the planning process. Planning policy settings determine what a developer can do on a site. This means that the political stance of the local planning authority can actually deter a developer from operating across the whole of an LGA. The potential for timelines to blow out or last-minute changes forced upon developers increases risks and can reduce return, leading to developers avoiding certain areas. Modelling shows a more efficient development approval process, including planning, infrastructure and environmental approvals, which reduces timeframes has the potential to provide a major boost to project profitability. |
| Date: | 2022–08–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8e659&r=ure |
| By: | Joshua Bosshardt (Federal Housing Finance Agency); William M. Doerner (Federal Housing Finance Agency); Fan Xu (Federal Housing Finance Agency) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines factors affecting the use of appraisal waivers for mortgages guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the effect of appraisal waivers on prepayment speeds. We find that the alignment of Freddie Mac’s eligibility criteria with those of Fannie Mae around the start of the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with an increase in the use of appraisal waivers. Conditional on satisfying the basic eligibility criteria, appraisal waivers are more common for refinance loans, loans serviced by nonbanks, and less risky borrowers. We also find that appraisal waivers were associated with higher conditional prepayment rates during 2020, but to a lesser extent in 2021 as refinancing activity slowed down. Much of this association can be explained by correlations between appraisal waivers and other observable determinants of prepayment speeds. |
| Keywords: | appraisal waiver, prepayment, nonbanks |
| JEL: | G21 G23 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hfa:wpaper:22-01&r=ure |
| By: | Björn Brey |
| Abstract: | Did recent technological change shape immigration policy in the United States? I argue that as automation shifted employment from routine to manual occupations, it increased competition between natives and immigrants. In turn, this lead to a more restrictive US immigration policy. I provide empirical evidence for this by analyzing voting on low-skill immigration bills in the House of Representatives. Policy makers representing congressional districts with a higher share of manual employment and those exposed to manual-biased technological change are more likely to support restricting low-skill immigration. Additional results on the effect of (i) immigration on wages, (ii) voter’s attitudes on low-skill immigration, and (iii) political polarization complete the analysis. I do not find a corresponding effect of technological change on trade policy consistent with the highlighted mechanism. |
| Keywords: | Political Economy, Voting, Immigration Policy, Technological Change |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/351267&r=ure |
| By: | Wang, Xize (National University of Singapore) |
| Abstract: | By 2030, one in every five Americans will be 65 or older. To better serve the mobility needs of a rapidly aging population, a better understanding of older adults' driving behavior is needed. This study explores the impact of health on driving reduction for America's older adults, using a nationwide, longitudinal dataset from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). I propose two outcome variables: having driven in the past month, and having driven beyond nearby places; and measure health using overall self-rated health status and specific sensory, mobility and physical conditions. Controlling for socio-demographics, residential patterns, personal fixed effects, time fixed effects, and regional fixed effects, I find that older adults with lower self-rated health were less likely to drive or drive beyond nearby places. The magnitudes of such effects vary by race but not by gender. I also identify specific health conditions that could predict driving reduction. The findings imply that in the near future, there will be a large number of older adults suffering from unmet travel demands due to declining health conditions. Hence, planners and policy makers should be proactive in seeking for solutions, including using my findings to identify at-risk older drivers and provide various types of mobility assistance. |
| Date: | 2022–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:h5scf&r=ure |
| By: | Klein, Nicholas J. (Conrell University); Basu, Rounaq; Smart, Michael J. |
| Abstract: | We examine how lower-income households in the United States acquire automobiles. Although car ownership plays an important role in social and economic mobility in the U.S., transportation scholars know little about how households acquire cars. We use an online opt-in survey of adults from lower-income households to examine how and why they acquire cars, and the effects of these different pathways to car ownership on finances and quality of life. We identify five pathways to car ownership: buying a new car, buying a used car at a dealer, buying a used car from informal markets, receiving a car as a gift, and obtaining a car through a life-event (e.g., moving in with a car owner). The most common path is to acquire a used car from a dealer (38% of our sample), followed by acquiring a used car informally (24%), purchasing new (17%), receiving a car as a gift (15%), and via a move-in (5%). Respondents most often acquired a car for financial reasons and to increase accessibility. In contrast, the COVID-19 pandemic, life-events, and built environment factors played a smaller role. Respondents reported that acquiring a car had a positive effect on their lives. The overwhelming majority said the effect on their quality of life was positive and getting a car was worth it. However, almost half experienced some type of financial hardship related to owning and operating their car. |
| Date: | 2022–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:7ex6z&r=ure |
| By: | Benoît Lécureux (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Adrien Bonnet (VeDeCom - VEhicule DEcarboné et COmmuniquant et sa Mobilité); Ouassim Manout (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jaâfar Berrada (VeDeCom - VEhicule DEcarboné et COmmuniquant et sa Mobilité); Louafi Bouzouina (Open University of the Netherlands [Heerlen], LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Automated mobility has always conveyed fantasies about its ability to meet future mobility needs and challenges. If research is still debating the when, where and how of this mobility disruption, there seems to be a consensus on its advent. Meanwhile, the investigation of the demand for this mobility is of critical importance. Stated preference surveys are a common and powerful tool to foresee this demand. This paper tackles the question of the acceptance of shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs) by reviewing most significant published papers on travel demand and travel surveys for SAVs. Given the recent developments in the last three years, the paper updates and complements previous literature reviews. In contrast with previous research, this paper shows that the impact of various factors on the intention to use SAVs is still controversial. This includes age, gender, income or car ownership. We identify most consensual and controversial effects and correspondingly suggest future research tracks to address some the identified gaps. |
| Keywords: | Shared Autonomous vehicles,Acceptance,Discrete choice,Mode choice,Stated preferences,Attitudes,Literature review Declarations: |
| Date: | 2022–10–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03814947&r=ure |
| By: | Pendola, Andrew (Auburn University) |
| Abstract: | Utilizing a dataset that includes more than 17,000 principals over 17 years, we employ discrete time hazard modeling and heckit regressions to identify characteristics that simultaneously explain principal turnover and selection. We then construct a framework comparing the two dimensions of stability and mobility to identify how features such as race and student achievement can help explain sites of frequent principal turnover risk. We find certain characteristics—such as experience with low performing schools—combine to increase the likelihood of both turnover and selection, while other characteristics—such as salary—increase stability but reduce mobility. Results demonstrate which combinations of features may explain higher likelihood of frequent turnover, and further help to identify systematic trends in principal hiring to better understand where policy interventions may be leveraged. |
| Date: | 2022–06–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:7jzak&r=ure |
| By: | Oussama Ben Atta (EPEE - Centre d'Etudes des Politiques Economiques - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - Université Paris-Saclay, TREE - Transitions Energétiques et Environnementales - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Isabelle Chort (TREE - Transitions Energétiques et Environnementales - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IUF - Institut Universitaire de France - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics); Jean-Noël Senne (RITM - Réseaux Innovation Territoires et Mondialisation - Université Paris-Saclay) |
| Abstract: | This article assesses the impact of immigrant and asylum seeker inflows on the size of the informal sector in host countries from a macroeconomic perspective. We use two indicators of informality provided by Medina and Schneider (2019) and Elgin and Oztunali (2012) combined with migration data from the OECD International Migration Database and data on asylum seeker flows from the UNHCR for the period 1997-2017. We estimate a first-difference model, instrumenting immigrant and asylum seeker flows by their predicted values derived from the estimation of a pseudo-gravity model. Results suggest that both immigrant and asylum seeker inflows increase the size of the informal sector at destination, but the size of the effect is very small: a one percentage point increase in the stock of immigrants as a share of population leads to an increase of the informal sector as a share of GDP of 0.05-0.06 percentage points. Unsurprisingly, the effect is about four times larger for asylum seeker flows, but remains economically insignificant. We investigate several potential channels, and find that integration policies do matter. We find no impact of imported norms or institutions, but rather that the effect is larger in destination countries with a large informal sector. A larger diversity in incoming flows is associated with a smaller impact on the informal sector. Finally, we document the dynamics with a VAR model. |
| Keywords: | migration,informal economy,asylum seekers,integration policies,shadow economy |
| Date: | 2022–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03822494&r=ure |
| By: | - |
| Abstract: | The Caribbean faces multidimensional vulnerabilities driven by climate change and aggravated by Small Island Developing States’ natural and economic characteristics (SIDS). A critical natural feature of SIDS is the extreme vulnerability to climate-change-induced events. Economically, the Caribbean has followed the global trend of seeing its urban areas swell during the last decades. Moreover, the region’s coastal areas expose human settlements, infrastructure, and businesses to external shocks, such as climate change-induced extreme weather events. In addition, the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) introduced a new dimension to these vulnerabilities, widening inequalities and demanding new and more localized approaches to how Caribbean countries respond to the pandemic’s economic and social fallouts. |
| Keywords: | VIVIENDA PUBLICA, POLITICA DE VIVIENDA, VIVIENDA BARATA, FINANCIACION DE LA VIVIENDA, URBANIZACION, ECONOMIA VERDE, RECUPERACIÓN, COVID-19, EPIDEMIAS, PROGRAMAS DE VIVIENDA, SUBSIDIOS DE VIVIENDA, VIVIENDA EN ARRIENDO, CONTROL DE ALQUILERES, CAMBIO CLIMATICO, PREVENCION DE DESASTRES, PLANIFICACION DEL DESARROLLO, ESTRATEGIAS DEL DESARROLLO, ALIANZAS PUBLICO-PRIVADAS, ELABORACION DE POLITICAS, DESARROLLO SOCIAL, DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE, OBJETIVOS DE DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE, RECOMENDACIONES, CEPAL, CDCC, ESTADOS PEQUEÑOS, PEQUEÑOS ESTADOS INSULARES EN DESARROLLO, PUBLIC HOUSING, HOUSING POLICY, LOW COST HOUSING, HOUSING FINANCE, URBANIZATION, GREEN ECONOMY, RECOVERY, COVID-19, EPIDEMICS, HOUSING PROGRAMMES, HOUSING SUBSIDIES, RENTAL HOUSING, RENT CONTROL, CLIMATE CHANGE, DISASTER PREVENTION, DEVELOPMENT PLANNING, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES, PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS, POLICY-MAKING, SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS, RECOMMENDATIONS, ECLAC, CDCC, SMALL STATES, SMALL ISLAND DEVELOPING STATES |
| Date: | 2022–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col095:48144&r=ure |
| By: | Ferwerda, Jeremy; Finseraas, Henning |
| Abstract: | Many European countries have implemented mandatory integration courses for refugees and asylum seekers. While evaluations suggest that these programs can improve short-term economic outcomes, little is known about their effectiveness in promoting social and political integration over the long run. In this paper, we focus on the Norwegian Introductory Program, an intensive policy intervention which requires two years of full-time coursework. To identify the causal effect of the program, we leverage quasi-random variation in refugees' arrival dates during the roll-out period. Although we find positive effects on economic integration, we find that the program did not meaningfully influence social or political integration over the long run, as measured via annual administrative data on residential patterns, union membership, intermarriage, citizenship, and validated turnout in local and national elections. This conclusion is further supported by an analysis of the effect of the program on political and social attitudes. Our findings suggest that while introductory programs may improve refugees' economic situation, mandatory coursework is nevertheless ineffective at promoting integration across other domains. |
| Date: | 2022–10–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:87w6e&r=ure |
| By: | Wheeler, Andrew Palmer (Gainwell Technologies) |
| Abstract: | This report analyses the effects of LED streetlight conversions on nighttime firearm crimes in Dallas, Texas. Using data from 2020 through May of 2022 on reported firearm crimes and LED conversions, using a differences-in-differences strategy (comparing trends in daytime firearm crimes compared to those at night), I find no evidence that LED conversions result in decreased nighttime firearm crimes in this sample. Supplementary analysis estimating whether conversions were more or less effective in different areas of the city also failed to find any evidence of effectiveness. While LED conversions may be beneficial for other reasons, in Dallas there is no strong evidence they also reduce firearm crimes at night. Code and Data to replicate the report findings can be obtained from https://www.dropbox.com/sh/l5khtwss97rel p8/AACx2TYMYCt7ICTOnKUHHtuWa?dl=0 |
| Date: | 2022–11–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:dr7us&r=ure |
| By: | Dewenter, Ralf (Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg); Löw, Franziska (Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg) |
| Abstract: | In contrast to traditional business models, two-sided platforms internalize indirect network effects that exist between different groups of platform participants. The strength of the network effects has a decisive influence on the success of the platform and its market position. Markets with particularly strong network effects are also often characterized by a high degree of concentration. However, the strength of the network effects is not exogenously given but can be influenced by targeted investment. This paper analyses how platforms can affect network effects by investing in appropriate infrastructure, data, or artificial intelligence. We derive optimal quantities, prices, profits, and investments depending on different types of investments. |
| Keywords: | two-sided markets; indirect network effects; endogenous network effects; optimal investment strategy |
| JEL: | D21 D42 L10 |
| Date: | 2022–08–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:vhsuwp:2022_194&r=ure |