nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2022‒11‒21
68 papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Second-Hand Gentrification: Theory and Evidence from High-Speed Rail Extensions By Gabriel Loumeau; Antonio Russo
  2. The Effect of Unemployment on Interregional Migration in the Netherlands By Cindy Biesenbeek
  3. Full-Time Schools and Educational Trajectories: Evidence from High-Stakes Exams By Cabrera-Hernández, Francisco; Padilla-Romo, María; Peluffo, Cecilia
  4. Migrants, Markets and Mayors Rising above the Employment Challenge in Africa’s Secondary Cities – Key Insights By Christiaensen, Luc; Lozano Gracia, Nancy
  5. Inefficient Markets for Energy Efficiency - Empirical Evidence from the German Rental Housing Market By Taruttis, Lisa; Weber, Christoph
  6. Local Labor Market Impacts of Advanced Manufacturing Technologies: Evidence from European Nuts-3 Regions. By Orsatti, Gianluca; Quatraro, Francesco
  7. Readiness of Philippine Cities to Smart City Development By Ballesteros, Marife M.; Ramos, Tatum; Ancheta, Jenica; Lorenzo, Pauline Joy M.
  8. Provision of urban environmental amenities: A policy toolkit for inclusiveness By Katherine Farrow; Ioannis Tikoudis; Grace Alexander; Apolline Saliou; Lea Stapper; Walid Oueslati
  9. Structural Change, Land Use and Urban Expansion By Nicolas Coeurdacier; Florian Oswald; Marc Teignier
  10. Does population sorting through internal migration increase healthcare costs and needs in peripheral regions? By Kulshreshtha, Shobhit; Salm, Martin; Wübker, Ansgar
  11. The Long Run Impact of Childhood Interracial Contact on Residential Segregation By Steinhardt, Max Friedrich; Wren-Lewis, Liam; Merlino, Luca
  12. Promoting Parental Involvement in Schools : Evidence from Two Randomized Experiments By Barrera-Osorio, Felipe; Gertler,Paul J.; Nakajima,Nozomi; Patrinos,Harry Anthony
  13. The Long and Winding Roads: Roads, Inequality, and Growth in Colombia By Quintero, Luis; Sinisterra, Guillermo
  14. Taxation with a Grain of Salt: The Long-Term Effect of Fiscal Policy on Local Development By Tommaso Giommoni; Gabriel Loumeau
  15. Green Technological Diversification and Local Recombinant Capabilities: The Role of Technological Novelty and Academic Inventors. By Author-Name: Orsatti, Gianluca; Quatraro,Francesco; Scandura, Alessandra
  16. VOG: Using Volcanic Eruptions to Estimate the Impact of Air Pollution on Student Learning Outcomes By Timothy J. Halliday; Lester Lusher; Rachel Inafuku; Aureo de Paula
  17. Credit Constraints and Fraud Victimization : Evidence from a Representative Chinese Household Survey By Gao,Nan; Ma,Yuanyuan; Xu,L. Colin
  18. An Arab, an Asian, and a Black guy walk into a job interview: ethnic stigma in hiring after controlling for social class By Hannah Van Borm; Louis Lippens; Stijn Baert
  19. The Rural-Urban Divide and Intergenerational Educational Mobility in a Developing Country : Theory and Evidence from Indonesia By Ahsan,Md Nazmul; Emran,M. Shahe; Shilpi,Forhad J.
  20. House Price Bubble Detection in Ukraine By Alona Shmygel; Martin Hoesli
  21. Quality of Communications Infrastructure, Local Structural Transformation, and Inequality By Camilo Andrés Acosta Mejía, Luis Baldomero-Quintana
  22. Housing Market Forecasts Via Stock Market Indicators By Mittal, Varun; Schaposnik, Laura
  23. Congestion Costs and Scheduling Preferences of Car Commuters in California: Estimates Using Big Data By Jinwon Kim; Jucheol Moon
  24. In Search of Better Opportunities : Sorting and Agglomeration Effects among Young College Graduates in Colombia By Bacolod,Marigee; De la Roca,Jorge; Ferreyra,Maria Marta
  25. Spillover effects of immigration policies on children's human capital By Arenas-Arroyo, Esther; Schmidpeter, Bernhard
  26. Fiscal Policy, public investment, and structural change:A P-SVAR analysis on Italian regions By Francesco Zezza; Dario Guarascio
  27. The Dynamic Consequences of State-Building: Evidence from the French Revolution By Cédric Chambru; Emeric Henry; Benjamin Marx
  28. Political Dividends of Digital Participatory Governance : Evidence from Moscow Pothole Management By Gorgulu,Nisan; Sharafutdinova,Gulnaz; Steinbuks,Jevgenijs
  29. A nation-wide experiment: fuel tax cuts and almost free public transport for three months in Germany -- Report 4 Third wave results By Allister Loder; Fabienne Cantner; Andrea Cadavid; Markus B. Siewert; Stefan Wurster; Sebastian Goerg; Klaus Bogenberger
  30. The Effects of Admitting Immigrants: A Look at Japan’s School and Pension Systems By Jinno, Masatoshi; Yasuoka, Masaya
  31. Rural Electric Vehicle Carsharing is Improving Household Mobility and Reducing Reliance on Personal Vehicles By Rodier, Caroline PhD; Harold, Brian
  32. Will We Ever Be Able to Track Offshore Wealth? Evidence from the Offshore Real Estate Market in the UK By Jeanne Bomare; Ségal Le Guern Herry
  33. Women's Legal Rights and Gender Gaps in Property Ownership in Developing Countries By Gaddis,Isis; Lahoti,Rahul Suresh; Swaminathan,Hema
  34. Building the Education Revolution: The Employment Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Australia By Timothy Watson; Juha Tervala
  35. The Effects of Introducing Withholding on Tax Compliance: Evidence from Pennsylvania’s Local Earned Income Tax By Sutirtha Bagchi
  36. How well do DSGE models with real estate and collateral constraints fit the data? By Alban Moura; Olivier Pierrard
  37. Firm subsidies, financial intermediation, and bank stability By Kazakov, Aleksandr; Koetter, Michael; Titze, Mirko; Tonzer, Lena
  38. Subnational democratization and the onset of the Mexican drug war By Luis Sanchez; Vassilis Sarantides
  39. Welcome back! The impact of 'return initiatives' on return migration to rural regions By Meister, Moritz; Peters, Jan Cornelius; Rossen, Anja
  40. Productivity Spillovers among Knowledge Workers in Agglomerations: Evidence from GitHub By Abou El-Komboz, Lena; Fackler, Thomas
  41. Regional Resilience through the Lenses of the Capability Approach. By Migheli, Matteo; D’ambrosio, Anna
  42. Affecting Public Support for Economic Policies: Evidence from a Survey Experiment about Rent Control in Germany By Dolls, Mathias; Schüle, Paul; Windsteiger, Lisa
  43. In Light of What They Know : How do Local Leaders Make Targeting Decisions? By Dervisevic,Ervin; Garz,Seth Aaron Levine; Mannava,Aneesh; Perova,Elizaveta
  44. The Direct and Spillover Effects of a Nationwide Socio-Emotional Learning Program for Disruptive Students By Clement De Chaisemartin; Nicolás Navarrete
  45. The impact of natural disasters on banks' impairment flow: Evidence from Germany By Shala, Iliriana; Schumacher, Benno
  46. Should I Train Or Should I Go? Estimating Treatment Effects of Retraining on Regional and Occupational Mobility By Kleifgen, Eva; Lang, Julia
  47. The myth of the misinformed migrant? Survey insights from Nigeria's irregular migration epicenter By Beber, Bernd; Scacco, Alexandra
  48. Racial disparities in deaths related to extreme temperatures in the United States between 1993 and 2005 By Risto Conte Keivabu; Ugofilippo Basellini; Emilio Zagheni
  49. EU Enlargement and (Temporary) Migration: Effects on Labour Market Outcomes in Germany By Hammer, Luisa; Hertweck, Matthias Sebastian
  50. Gender gap in politician performance and its determinants By Garcia-Hernandez, Ana; Grossman, Guy; Michelitch, Kristin
  51. Social Networks and Access and Utilization of Weather and Climate Information: The Case of Upland Farming Communities in the Philippines By Tabuga, Aubrey D.; Domingo, Sonny N.; Umlas, Anna Jennifer L.; Zuluaga, Katrina Mae C.
  52. Perspectives of Armenian: Iranian economic relations within Belt and Road Initiative By Grigoryan, Karen; Arpanahi, Ali
  53. Could spending time in an AV be similar to travelling on a train? Lessons from the literature By Florent Laroche; Stéphanie Souche
  54. Parenting Promotes Social Mobility Within and Across Generations By Jorge Luis García; James J. Heckman
  56. Effect of typhoons on economic activities in Vietnam: Evidence using satellite imagery By Etienne Espagne; Yen Boi Ha; Kenneth Houngbedji; Thanh Ngo-Duc
  57. Who Benefits from State Corporate Tax Cuts? A Local Labor Markets Approach with Heterogeneous Firms: Comment By Clément Malgouyres; Thierry Mayer; Clément Mazet-Sonilhac
  58. Trends in USDA Foods Ordered for Child Nutrition Programs Before and After Updated Nutrition Standards By Ollinger, Michael; Guthrie, Joanne
  59. Size Matters in Municipal Digital Transformation: Insights from local government survey in Japan By HAMAGUCHI Nobuaki
  60. Learning Poverty : Measures and Simulations By Azevedo,Joao Pedro Wagner De
  61. Cash Transfer and Voter Turnout By Alexander James; Nathaly M. Rivera; Brock Smith
  62. Home Care Allowance and Labor Market Participation of Immigrant and Native-Born Mothers By Jochimsen, Beate; Fendel, Tanja
  63. Renaming and Removal of Harmful Names and Monuments on State Transportation Right of Way By Deakin, Elizabeth PhD; Munoz, Jasmin; Son, Daisy
  64. Home Office is here to stay? Access to Home Office and Remote Work Potentials across Swiss Industries By Essbaumer, Elisabeth
  65. Before and after out-of-home placement: Child health, education and crime By Petra Gram Cavalca; Mette Ejrnæs; Mette Gørtz
  66. Tracing the Local Impacts of Exports on Poverty and Inequality in Mexico By Rodriguez Castelan,Carlos; Vazquez,Emmanuel Jose; Winkler-Seales,Hernan Jorge
  67. The Heterogenous Effects of Employers’ Concentration on Wages: Better Sorting or Uneven Rent Extracting? By Axelle Arquié; Julia Bertin
  68. Cultural Policies for Migrant Inclusion: A Survey By Venturini, Alessandra; Mosso, Cristina; Ricci, Andrea

  1. By: Gabriel Loumeau; Antonio Russo
    Abstract: This paper investigates whether and how gentrification spreads along intercity transport connections. We consider a model with heterogeneous individuals populating a primary and a secondary city, with commuting within and between cities. By reducing the cost of intercity commuting, the HSR connection induces migration by skilled individuals towards the secondary city. Therefore, house prices rise in the secondary city, and unskilled individuals are pushed to its periphery. We call this effect second-hand gentrification. We confirm these predictions using the 2017 expansion of the French HSR network from Paris to Bordeaux and Rennes. We find that the HSR connection made skilled Parisians more likely to move to Bordeaux and Rennes, that these individuals locate over-proportionally in central locations of such cities, and that housing prices there consequently increased by €400 per m2 (i.e., 7%). Remarkably, we also find a negative effect on prices in Paris.
    Keywords: gentrification, high speed rail, housing market, Intercity travel
    JEL: R23 R11 R41
    Date: 2022
  2. By: Cindy Biesenbeek
    Abstract: Using administrative data between 2006 and 2020, I analyze interregional migration in the Netherlands. In theory, individuals move out of regions with high unemployment rates, but most empirical research does not strongly support this prediction. Likewise, I only ï¬ nd a small effect of regional unemployment on interregional migration. Furthermore, I ï¬ nd that the unemployed are more mobile during the ï¬ rst three months of unemployment. In addition, my results suggest that renters in the private sector are much more mobile than homeowners or renters in the social housing sector. Finally, I ï¬ nd that commuters are much more likely to migrate, despite good infrastructure and relative short distances in The Netherlands.
    Keywords: Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Unemployment; Commuting; Duration; Cox; Nether-lands
    JEL: J61 R23
    Date: 2022–10
  3. By: Cabrera-Hernández, Francisco (CIDE, Mexico City); Padilla-Romo, María (University of Tennessee); Peluffo, Cecilia (University of Florida)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the effects of extending the school day during elementary school on students' education outcomes later in life. We do so in the context of Mexico City's metropolitan area, where a large-scale program introduced in 2007 extended the school day from 4.5 to 8 hours in schools that adopted the program. We exploit cohort-by-cohort variation in students' full-time school enrollment during elementary school to identify the longer-term effects on their performance in a high-school admission exam, subsequent placement, and preferences over high schools. The results indicate that full-time schools have positive and long-lasting effects on students' performance, increasing high-stakes test scores by 4.9 percent of a standard deviation. Exposure to full-time schooling also increases students' probability of choosing highly-selective high schools as their top choices, especially among students from low-SES schools.
    Keywords: full-time schools, high-stakes exams, education, Mexico
    JEL: I21 I25 J01
    Date: 2022–09
  4. By: Christiaensen, Luc; Lozano Gracia, Nancy
    Abstract: In our rapidly urbanizing world, mayors often see migrants as a burden to their city’s labor market and a threat to its development. Drawing on national household surveys and four secondary city case studies in Africa, this study finds that migrants, being younger, better educated and/or complementary to the resident labor force, usually strengthen the urban labor force. In secondary cities, labor market outcomes for migrants are at least as good as those for residents. Migrants also contribute increasingly less to urban population growth. Secondary cities thus appear well placed to leverage migration. This requires good urban management that develops land and labor markets, prepares for growth and benefits everyone, migrants as well as residents. Migrant specific interventions are warranted when divisions between natives and migrants are deep. Strengthening the financial, technical, and planning capacity of towns to better integrate migrants is part and parcel of the good job’s agenda.
    Keywords: migrant; labor market integration of migrants; secondary city; national household survey data; rural to urban migration; solid waste management facility; gender-based discrimination; sexual harassment of woman; access to urban service; disaster risk management; female labor force participation; Social and Economic Inclusion; access to basic service; labor market integration policy; urban labor market; urban population growth; urban labor force; labor market outcome; Gender-Based Violence; large urban centers; data collection effort; Housing and Land; duration of stay; place of origin; natural population growth; good urban management; land and housing; labor market policy; characteristics of migrant; availability of service; urban local government
    Date: 2022–01–14
  5. By: Taruttis, Lisa; Weber, Christoph
    JEL: C21 Q40 R21 R31
    Date: 2022
  6. By: Orsatti, Gianluca; Quatraro, Francesco (University of Turin)
    Abstract: Based on the established literature about substitution and compensation effects, this paper provides one of the first analyses of the relationship between digital technologies and employment at the regional level in Europe. We posit that idiosyncratic factors of local labor markets are likely to generate place- specific responses to the introduction of new technologies. Spatial spillovers are also likely to emerge. The geographical level of analysis is therefore the most appropriate. Our analysis confirms that there is a significant relationship between the local specialization in advanced manufacturing technologies and employment. Mainly driven by automation-related technologies, we indeed estimate negative effects of advanced manufacturing technologies on local employment creation. Conversely, digital technologies play a positive role in enhancing local labor productivity. Finally, technological performances of neighbour regions play a significant role in shaping local labor productivity, while not significantly affecting local employment creation.
    Date: 2020–11
  7. By: Ballesteros, Marife M.; Ramos, Tatum; Ancheta, Jenica; Lorenzo, Pauline Joy M.
    Abstract: Smart city development is recognized as a potential solution to urbanization issues, but a disconnect comes along with the vagueness in smart city elements and pathways. The use of the term smart city by some local government units in the Philippines evokes a utopia – a local sphere with numerous positive developments that will greatly benefit the constituents. The lack of studies providing evidence on the readiness of Philippine cities to smart city development, however, prevents the establishment of the cities capacities to address urban challenges with their initiatives. This study aims to examine whether Philippine cities are prepared for smart city development by answering three policy questions: (1) What drives Philippine LGUs towards the implementation of smart city initiatives?; (2) What is the extent of smart city development among Philippine cities?; and (3) How can the Philippine government facilitate the development of smart cities?. A desk review of smart city initiatives in some Philippine and international cities was carried out, and interviews were conducted with stakeholders from selected cities in Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. Based on the findings, the Philippines has started to tread the path towards building smart cities, and some Philippine cities already exhibit preparedness for smart city development. Smart city enablers are already in place, but the degree to which they are applied is not very extensive. Both at the national and local levels, there are significant challenges that need to be addressed. These include issues related to data interoperability, national standards on data repositories and application programming interfaces, risk mitigation strategies, monitoring and assessment, accountability, and others. If such issues are unaddressed, there will be a risk of not fully realizing the potential of smart city initiatives being implemented in the Philippines. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email
    Keywords: local government;smart city; digital city; intelligent city; Philippine cities; sustainable city
    Date: 2021
  8. By: Katherine Farrow; Ioannis Tikoudis; Grace Alexander; Apolline Saliou; Lea Stapper; Walid Oueslati
    Abstract: Environmental amenities provide a range of direct and indirect benefits in cities, and amenity provision often figures within policy portfolios to advance sustainability in urban areas. As environmental pressures and urban populations increase, it will be necessary to find ways to ensure that environmental policies do not contribute to existing inequalities in these areas. This report synthesises empirical research on the impact of environmental amenities on housing prices, examines implications on housing affordability, and offers perspectives on how negative impacts can be mitigated. The report finds that the provision of environmental amenities tends to raise housing prices, which reduces affordability, especially among renters and low-income households with reduced access to mortgages. The report concludes that there is scope to accompany amenity provision with complementary measures to mitigate distributional impacts and outlines policy avenues in that regard.
    Keywords: environmental amenities, green gentrification, housing affordability, open space, provision, public good
    JEL: D63 H41 O18 Q52 R38
    Date: 2022–11–04
  9. By: Nicolas Coeurdacier (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Florian Oswald (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Marc Teignier (University of Barcelona)
    Abstract: We develop a multi-sector spatial equilibrium model with endogenous land use: land is used either for agriculture or housing. Urban land, densely populated due to commuting frictions, expands out of agricultural land. With rising productivity, the reallocation of workers away from agriculture frees up land for cities to expand, limiting the increase in land values despite higher income and increasing urban population. Due to the reallocation of land use, the area of cities expands at a fast rate and urban density persistently declines, as in the data over a long period. As structural change slows down, cities sprawl less and land values start increasing at a faster rate, as in the last decades. Quantitative predictions of the joint evolution of density and land values across time and space are confronted with historical data assembled for France over 180 years.
    Keywords: Structural Change,Land Use,Productivity Growth,Urban Density
    Date: 2021–12–03
  10. By: Kulshreshtha, Shobhit; Salm, Martin; Wübker, Ansgar
    Abstract: Large regional disparities in health and healthcare costs prevail in many countries, but our understanding of the underlying causes is still limited. This study shows for the case of the Netherlands that population sorting through internal migration can explain a substantial share, around 28%, of regional variation in healthcare costs. Internal migration during the 1998-2018 period increases average healthcare costs in peripheral provinces by up to 3%. Most of this effect can be attributed to selective migration. We find similar results for risk scores, a measure of healthcare needs. The Dutch risk equalization scheme compensates only partially for these effects.
    Keywords: Regional variation in healthcare costs,internal migration,movers approach,regionaldisparities
    JEL: H51 I14 R23
    Date: 2022
  11. By: Steinhardt, Max Friedrich; Wren-Lewis, Liam; Merlino, Luca
    JEL: I29 J15 R23
    Date: 2022
  12. By: Barrera-Osorio, Felipe; Gertler,Paul J.; Nakajima,Nozomi; Patrinos,Harry Anthony
    Abstract: Parental involvement programs aim to increase school-and-parent communication and support children's overall learning environment. This paper examines the effects of low-cost, group-based parental involvement interventions in Mexico using data from two randomized controlled trials. The first experiment provided financial resources to parent associations. The second experiment provided information to parents about how to support their children's learning. Overall, the interventions induced different types of parental engagement in schools. The information intervention changed parenting behavior at home -- with large effects among indigenous parents who have historically been discriminated and socially excluded -- and improved student behavior in school. The grants did not impact parent or student behaviors. Notably, the paper does not find impacts of either intervention on educational achievement. To understand these 0 effects, the paper explores how social ties between parents and teachers evolved over the course of the two interventions. Parental involvement interventions led to significant changes in perceived trustworthiness between teachers and parents. The results suggest that parental involvement interventions can backfire if institutional rules are unclear about the expectations of parents and teachers as parents increase their involvement in schools.
    Keywords: Educational Sciences,Employment and Unemployment,Effective Schools and Teachers,Educational Institutions&Facilities
    Date: 2020–10–29
  13. By: Quintero, Luis; Sinisterra, Guillermo
    Abstract: We measure the impact on economic performance and land ownership inequality in municipalities of a large scale program of road network expansions and improvements that occurred in Colombia between 1993 to 2012. The treatment is measured as improvements in market access to incorporate network effects. We find that roads improve market access, and this increases both municipality GDP and land ownership inequality. We address endogeneity concerns by using two instruments. First, using detailed geographical information we create a least cost path counterfactual for the Colombian road networks linking important cities in 1938. We use this least cost path to calculate a counterfactual market access measure that is determined by exogenous topographic accidents. Next, we build an alternative market access measure which focuses on semi-random market access changes stemming from increased exposure to markets of smaller cities which were not determinant in defining the road network shape.
    Keywords: Desarrollo, Infraestructura, Investigación socioeconómica, Vialidad,
    Date: 2022
  14. By: Tommaso Giommoni; Gabriel Loumeau
    Abstract: This paper studies the long-term effect of taxation on economic geography and development. We rely on a unique natural experiment in place during France’s ancien régime: the salt tax. Introduced in the late 13th century and abrogated by the French Revolution in 1789, the salt tax was not uniformly levied across the French kingdom as its rate varied discontinuously in space. Using a series of rich and original historical data at regular time intervals and very fine spatial resolution since the fifteen century, we estimate a Spatial RDD model. We find that these exogenous tax rate differentials have had large effects on economic geography and development. These effects are, then, confirmed in a DiD analysis, that studies a very large time span (1400-1900 using regular intervals of 25 years) and documents the absence of pre-trends. Most of the effects can still be observed today in population density, firm density, and local average income.
    Keywords: taxation, long-term, economic georgraphy, development, spatial discontinuity, salt tax
    JEL: H20 N33 O23 J61
    Date: 2022
  15. By: Author-Name: Orsatti, Gianluca; Quatraro,Francesco; Scandura, Alessandra (University of Turin)
    Abstract: This paper studies the entry of regions in new green technological specializations, specifically investigating the role of local recombinant capabilities and the involvement of academic inventors in patenting activities, as well as the interplay between the two. We test our hypotheses on a dataset of Italian NUTS 3 regions over the period 1998-2009. The results show that both recombinant capabilities and the presence of academic inventors are positively associated to new entries in green technological specializations, and that their interaction provides a compensatory mechanism in regions lacking adequate novel combinatorial capabilities. The findings of this work are relevant for policy makers involved in the elaboration of successful regional specialization strategies in green technological domains.
    Date: 2021–10
  16. By: Timothy J. Halliday (UHERO, University of Hawai'i at Manoa); Lester Lusher (University of Hawai'i at Manoa); Rachel Inafuku (UHERO, University of Hawai'i at Manoa); Aureo de Paula (UHERO, University of Hawai'i at Manoa)
    Abstract: This study pairs variation stemming from volcanic eruptions from Kilauea with the census of Hawai‘i’s public schools student test scores to estimate the impact of particulates and sulfur dioxide on student performance. We leverage spatial correlations in pollution in conjunction with proximity to Kilauea and wind direction to construct predictions of pollution exposure at each school. We precisely estimate that increased particulate pollution leads to a small but statistically significant drop in average test scores. Then, utilizing Hawai‘i’s rich diversity across schools in baseline exposure, we estimate sharp nonlinearities ­ schools with higher baseline levels of pollution experience larger decreases in test scores than schools with less pollution exposure on average. At levels of particulate pollution higher than six micrograms per cubic meter (µg/m3 ), we estimate that a one standard deviation increase in PM2.5 leads to a decline in test scores of 1.1 percent of a standard deviation. Lastly, we find that within schools the drop in test scores is concentrated among economically disadvantaged students. The effects of PM2.5 on student test scores are larger by a factor of ten for the poorest pupils. Similarly, the effects of SO2 are larger by a factor of six. We demonstrate that poor air quality disproportionately impacts the human capital accumulation of economically disadvantaged children.
    Keywords: Vog, Particulates, Test Scores, Kringing, Environmental Justice
    JEL: R1
    Date: 2022–11
  17. By: Gao,Nan; Ma,Yuanyuan; Xu,L. Colin
    Abstract: Using a novel, nationally representative data set on fraud victimization, this paperexamines the impact of credit constraints on fraud victimization and potential underlying mechanisms in Chineseurban areas. After controlling for other household characteristics and regional fixed effects, householdsfacing credit constraints are associated with 2.3 percentage points higher probability of becoming fraud victims, andhave 20.4 percent higher subsequent economic losses from fraud when they are approached. The results are robust whendealing with the endogeneity of facing credit constraints and when addressing potential sample selection bias. Furtheranalyses show that the personal discount rate (impatience) and the need for social network expansion are criticalpathways via which credit constraints affect fraud victimization. The findings suggest that improving financialdevelopment is an effective way to reduce fraud victimization.
    Keywords: Municipal Management and Reform,Urban Housing and Land Settlements,Urban Governance and Management,Urban Housing,De Facto Governments,Public Sector Administrative & Civil Service Reform,State Owned Enterprise Reform,Public Sector Administrative and Civil Service Reform,Democratic Government,Energy Privatization,Economics and Finance of Public Institution Development,Privatization,Crime and Society,Financial Sector Policy
    Date: 2020–10–27
  18. By: Hannah Van Borm; Louis Lippens; Stijn Baert (-)
    Abstract: Over the last decades, researchers have found compelling evidence of hiring discrimination toward ethnic minorities based on field experiments using fictitious job applications. Despite increasing efforts to discover why ethnic minorities experience hiring penalties, the academic world has not yet found a satisfying answer. With this study, we aim to close this gap in the literature by conducting a state-of-the-art scenario experiment with genuine American recruiters. In the experiment, we ask recruiters to assess fictitious job applicants of variousrace-ethnicities but consistent social class. The applicants are rated on 22 statements related to the dominant explanations for ethnic discrimination in hiring that the models of taste-based and statistical discrimination have offered. We find that different race-ethnicity groups are evaluated rather similarly, except for Asian Americans, who are perceived to have better intellectual abilities and organizational skills and to be more ambitious, motivated, efficient, and open. These results suggest that the hiring discrimination found in previous experimental research might be overestimated because part of the reported hiring penalty may be attributed to aspects other than race-ethnicity.
    Keywords: hiring, ethnic discrimination, statistical discrimination, social class, stigma
    JEL: J71 J15 J24
    Date: 2022–11
  19. By: Ahsan,Md Nazmul; Emran,M. Shahe; Shilpi,Forhad J.
    Abstract: This paper provides an analysis of the rural-urban divide in intergenerational educational mobility in Indonesia with two distinguishing features. First, the estimating equations are derived from theory incorporating rural-urban differences in returns to education and school quality, and possible complementarity between parent’s education and financial investment. Second, the data are suitable for tackling the biases from sample truncation due to coresidency and omitted cognitive ability heterogeneity. The evidence rejects the workhorse linear intergenerational educational persistence equation in favor of a convex relation in rural and urban Indonesia. The rural-urban relative mobility curves cross, with the children of low educated fathers enjoying higher relative mobility in rural areas, while the pattern flips in favor of the urban children when the father has more than nine years of schooling. However, the rural children face lower absolute mobility across the whole distribution of father's schooling. Estimates from the investment equation suggest that, in urban areas, children~^!!^s peers are complementary to financial investment by parents, while the adult role models are substitutes. In contrast, separability holds in villages. Peers and role models are not responsible for the convexity in both rural and urban areas, suggesting more efficient investment by educated parents as a likely mechanism, as proposed by Becker et al. (2015, 2018). The theoretical relation between the intercepts of the mobility and investment equations helps in understand whether school quality is complementary to or a substitute for parental financial investment. This paper finds evidence of substitutability, implying that public investment to improve the quality of rural schools is desirable on both equity and efficiency grounds.
    Keywords: Educational Sciences,Education Finance,Economics of Education,Rural Labor Markets,Labor Markets,Macro-Fiscal Policy,Economic Adjustment and Lending,Public Finance Decentralization and Poverty Reduction,Public Sector Economics
    Date: 2020–11–03
  20. By: Alona Shmygel (National Bank of Ukraine); Martin Hoesli (University of Geneva - Geneva School of Economics and Management (GSEM); Swiss Finance Institute; University of Aberdeen - Business School)
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to build a framework for the assessment of the fundamental value of house prices in the largest Ukrainian cities, as well as to identify the thresholds, the breach of which would signal a bubble. House price bubbles are detected using two approaches: ratios and regression analysis. Two variants of each method are considered. We calculate the price-to-rent and price-to-income ratios that can identify a possible over- or undervaluation of house prices. Then, we perform regression analyses by considering individual multi-factor models for each city and by using a pooled OLS model with panel data. The only pronounced and prolonged period of a house price bubble is the one that coincides with the Global Financial Crisis. The bubble signals produced by these methods are, on average, simultaneous and are in accordance with economic sense.
    Keywords: house price bubbles, fundamental house prices, mortgage lending, systemic risk, regression analysis, Ukraine.
    JEL: R31 R38
    Date: 2022–10
  21. By: Camilo Andrés Acosta Mejía, Luis Baldomero-Quintana
    Abstract: We document that improvements in the quality of communication infrastructure have a causal impact in employment growth, wage inequality, and sectoral economic activity in US counties. Our treatment is the quality of communication infrastructure in a county measured by the av erage Internet speeds offered by telecommunication companies. For identification, we use as instrumental variable the structure of ARPANET (the precursor of Internet), a network funded by the Department of Defense, whose information we retrieved from historical government doc uments. We show that faster Internet increases the shares of employment in high skilled services sectors, while negatively affecting activity in services sectors like retail, accommodation and food services. Two mechanisms explain our results: input-output linkages and a rise in high-skilled workers in ICT-intensive occupations. Our results are consistent with the Rybczynski theorem. Lastly, our results suggest that reduction in communication costs induced by better Internet in U.S. counties increases local inequality.
    Keywords: Communication costs, Internet, infrastructure, local structural transformation, Hecksher-Ohlin-Vanek model, history of technology
    Date: 2022–10–18
  22. By: Mittal, Varun; Schaposnik, Laura
    Abstract: Reliable forecasting of the housing market can provide salient insights into housing investments. Through the reinterpretation of housing data as candlesticks, we are able to utilize some of the most prominent technical indicators from the stock market to estimate future changes in the housing market. By providing an analysis of MACD, RSI, and Candlestick indicators (Bullish Engulfing, Bearish Engulfing, Hanging Man, and Hammer), we exhibit their statistical significance in making predictions for USA data sets (using Zillow Housing data), as well as for a stable housing market, a volatile housing market, and a saturated market by considering the data-sets of Germany, Japan, and Canada. Moreover, we show that bearish indicators have a much higher statistical significance then bullish indicators, and we further illustrate how in less stable or more populated countries, bearish trends are only slightly more statistically present compared to bullish trends. Finally, we show how the insights gained from our trend study can help consumers save significant amounts of money.
    Keywords: Housing Market, Trend Study, Stock Market Indicators, Candlestick Analysis, Heikin-Ashi Candlestick Analysis, RSI, MACD, Bearish Engulfing, Bullish Engulfing, Hammer, Hanging Man, Dark Cloud Over
    JEL: C10 G0 G20
    Date: 2022–10–16
  23. By: Jinwon Kim (Department of Economics, Sogang University, Seoul, Korea); Jucheol Moon (Department of Computer Engineering & Computer Science, California State University, Long Beach)
    Abstract: This paper aims to quantify congestion costs and estimate the scheduling utility function for commuters. To do so, we construct California commuters' travel-time profiles, namely, the menu of travel times that each individual will likely face according to alternate trip timing choices. On average, California commuters waste about 5 minutes per morning commute due to congestion. Commuters facing a higher congestion level at the peak hour tend to avoid congestion delays by arriving at an inconvenient edge time. We also discover that for the majority of the commuters in our data, travel-time profiles are much atter than our estimated schedule utility. From this finding, we question the accuracy of the existing bottleneck models in quantifying the economic costs of congestion and the optimal toll to ameliorate congestion.
    Keywords: congestion costs; scheduling preference; commuting; Google Maps; big data; machinelearning
    JEL: R41 R48 C8 C25 H21
    Date: 2022
  24. By: Bacolod,Marigee; De la Roca,Jorge; Ferreyra,Maria Marta
    Abstract: This paper studies the dynamic sorting of workers prior to labor market entry that leads to skill differences across cities of different sizes, as well as its consequences on the estimation of agglomeration effects. Using rich administrative data for young, college-educated workers in Colombia, the paper shows that the most talented and best trained sort to big cities primarily because they attend college there and remain for work. The availability of colleges in an individual's high school city, parental resources, and high school city size are the most important determinants of the decision to move for college. The relatively less able remain in medium and small cities or move there for work after attending college in big cities. Pre-labor market sorting thus concentrates population and skill in big cities. As a result of this sorting, agglomeration effects are stronger for college than work city size, even after controlling for mediating factors such as individual ability or college selectivity.
    Keywords: Educational Sciences,Rural Labor Markets,Tertiary Education,Labor Markets
    Date: 2020–10–08
  25. By: Arenas-Arroyo, Esther; Schmidpeter, Bernhard
    Abstract: We study the spillover effects of immigration enforcement policies on children's human capital. Exploiting the temporal and geographic variation in the enactment of immigration enforcement policies, we find that English language skills of US-born children with at least one undocumented parent are negatively affected by the introduction of these policies. Changes in parental investment behavior cause this reduction in children's English skills. Parents are less likely to enroll their children in formal non-mandatory preschool, substituting formal non-mandatory preschool education with parental time at home. Parents also reduce time spent on leisure and socializing, providing children with fewer opportunities to interact and lean from others. Ultimately, these developments reduce children's long-term educational success. Exposure to immigration enforcement during early childhood lowersthe likelihood of high school completion. We also find negative, though imprecise, effects on college enrollment.
    Keywords: Immigration policies,children's human capital,children's language skills,parental investment
    JEL: K37 J13 J15
    Date: 2022
  26. By: Francesco Zezza; Dario Guarascio
    Abstract: This work analyses the regional impact of public investments focusing on three domains that are key for the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP): green, digital and education/knowledge. Relying on a unique database ('Conti Pubblici Territoriali'), we perform a P-SVAR model showing that fiscal policy shocks have positive and long-lasting effects on GDP and private investments. A relevant heterogeneity is detected, though. In particular, shocks to digital spending only timidly crowd-in private investment while a stronger effect is found concerning the green sector. Second, public investments have a significant impact on regions' ‘structural upgrading’, i.e., export competitiveness and share of high-tech manufacturing. Third, confirming previous findings, shocks to public spending are found to have larger effects in centre-north regions, in terms of both GDP and private investments. Nevertheless, public spending turns out to have a stronger structural effect in the south than in the centre-north, highlighting the relevant role that the NRRP may play in reducing the Italian north-south divide
    Keywords: Fiscal multipliers; Panel SVAR; Italian regions; North-South divide
    JEL: C33 E62 H70 R58
    Date: 2022–09
  27. By: Cédric Chambru (UZH - Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich); Emeric Henry (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Benjamin Marx (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR)
    Abstract: How do radical reforms of the state shape economic development over time? In 1790, France's first Constituent Assembly overhauled the kingdom's organization to set up new administrative entities and local capitals. In a subset of departments, new capitals were chosen quasi-randomly as the Assembly abandoned its initial plan to rotate administrative functions across multiple cities. We study how exogenous changes in local administrative presence affect the state's coercive and productive capacity, as well as economic development in the ensuing decades. In the short run, proximity to the state increases taxation, conscription, and investments in law enforcement capacity. In the long run, the new local capitals and their periphery obtain more public goods and experience faster economic development. One hundred years after the reform, capitals are 40% more populated than comparable cities in 1790. Our results shed new light on the intertemporal and redistributive impacts of state-building in the context of one of the most ambitious administrative reforms ever implemented.
    Keywords: State Capacity,State-Building,Administrative Reform,Economic Development
    Date: 2021–12
  28. By: Gorgulu,Nisan; Sharafutdinova,Gulnaz; Steinbuks,Jevgenijs
    Abstract: This study takes advantage of a publicly salient policy sphere -- road quality -- in the Russian Federation's capital city to explore the use of digital technologies as means of aggregating information and demonstrating government capacity and effectiveness. It focuses on the potential linkage between road quality based on citizens' complaints and electoral outcomes in two rounds of Moscow mayoral elections in 2013 and 2018. The data on more than 200,000 online potholes’ complaints were collected and combined with local election data. The causal relationship between these two processes is established, making use of an arguably exogenous variation in the differences across local weather conditions during the heating season that differentially affects pothole creation but is uncorrelated with electoral outcomes. The results indicate that greater use of digital technologies (measured by pothole complaints) results in an increased number of votes and a higher margin of victory for the incumbent. They highlight digital technologies' role as a tool to create participatory governance mechanisms and convey to the public an image of a transparent, responsive, and capable government.
    Keywords: Information Technology,Transport Services,Urban Housing and Land Settlements,Urban Governance and Management,Municipal Management and Reform,Urban Housing,De Facto Governments,E-Government,E-Government,Public Sector Administrative and CivilService Reform,Economics and Finance of Public Institution Development,Democratic Government,E-Government,Public Sector Administrative&Civil Service Reform
    Date: 2020–10–20
  29. By: Allister Loder; Fabienne Cantner; Andrea Cadavid; Markus B. Siewert; Stefan Wurster; Sebastian Goerg; Klaus Bogenberger
    Abstract: In spring 2022, the German federal government agreed on a set of measures that aimed at reducing households' financial burden resulting from a recent price increase, especially in energy and mobility. These measures included among others, a nation-wide public transport ticket for 9EUR per month and a fuel tax cut that reduced fuel prices by more than 15%. In transportation policy and travel behavior research this is an almost unprecedented behavioral experiment. It allows to study not only behavioral responses in mode choice and induced demand but also to assess the effectiveness of transport policy instruments. We observe this natural experiment with a three-wave survey and an app-based travel diary on a sample 2'263 individuals; for the Munich Study, 919 participants in the survey-and-app group and 425 in the survey-only group have been successfully recruited, while 919 participants have been recruited through a professional panel provider to obtain a representative nation-wide reference group for the three-wave survey. In this fourth report we present the results of the third wave. At the end of the study, all three surveys have been completed by 1'484 participants and 642 participants completed all three surveys and used the travel diary throughout the entire study. Based on our results we conclude that when offering a 49EUR-Ticket as a successor to the 9~EUR-Ticket and a local travel pass for 30EUR/month more than 60% of all 9~EUR-Ticket owners would buy one of the two new travel passes. In other words, a substantial increase in travel pass ownership in Germany can be expected, with our modest estimate being around 20%. With the announcement of the introduction of a successor ticket in 2023 as well as with the prevailing high inflation, this study will continue into the year 2023 to monitor the impact on mobility and daily activities.
    Date: 2022–10
  30. By: Jinno, Masatoshi; Yasuoka, Masaya
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of admitting immigrants to Japan on the welfare of native Japanese residents. The paper considers the imperfect substitutability between native and immigrant laborers in line with the pension and education systems. It is argued that immigration may have indirect negative effects, for example, imposing the additional burden of educating immigrant children who require additional support to master the Japanese culture, customs, and language. This research uses numerical data analysis of Japan. The findings indicate that admitting immigrants, even when they are not perfectly complementary, might increase the wage level and the utility of the natives. There are also direct implications on the type of pension system that is available for natives and immigrants. This study recommends that the defined replacement rate pension system is preferable for natives when there is a relatively substitutable relationship between natives and immigrants.
    Keywords: Immigrants, Burden of schooling, Pension, Substitutability, Complementarity.
    JEL: H52 H55 J61
    Date: 2022–10–27
  31. By: Rodier, Caroline PhD; Harold, Brian
    Abstract: Households in marginalized areas of rural California contend with difficult transportation challenges resulting from infrequent transit service, limited access to app-based rideshare services, and higher vehicle ownership costs associated with long travel distances. In 2014, researchers at the University of California, Davis partnered with the San Joaquin Valley Metropolitan Planning Organization to engage with stakeholders to understand the challenges facing rural residents and develop solutions for improving mobility while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. One outcome of this work was the creation of an electric vehicle (EV) carsharing service known as Míocar. Míocar launched in 2019 and now has 27 vehicles located in eight affordable housing complexes in Tulare and Kern counties. Míocar provides a transportation option that helps to improve the mobility of individuals and households in marginalized communities and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by decreasing reliance on conventional personal vehicles.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2022–10–01
  32. By: Jeanne Bomare (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Ségal Le Guern Herry (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper provides evidence of the growing importance of real estate assets in offshore portfolios. We study the implementation of the first multilateral automatic exchange of information norm, the Common Reporting Standard (CRS), which introduces cross-border reporting requirements for financial assets but not for real estate assets. Exploiting administrative data on property purchases made by foreign companies in the UK, we show that the implementation of the CRS led to a significant increase of real estate investments from companies incorporated in the tax havens that were the most exposed to the policy. We confirm that this increase comes from company owners of countries committing to the new standard by identifying the residence country of a sub-sample of buyers using the Panama Papers and other leaked datasets. We estimate that between £16 and £19 billion have been invested in the UK real estate market between 2013 and 2016 in reaction to the CRS, suggesting that at the global scale between 24% and 27% of the money that fled tax havens following this policy were ultimately invested in properties.
    Date: 2022–06–05
  33. By: Gaddis,Isis; Lahoti,Rahul Suresh; Swaminathan,Hema
    Abstract: Women's property ownership matters for their well-being and agency; it can also advance economic prosperity and promote the human development of future generations. Yet, until recently, lack of data has constrained researchers from gaining a comprehensive overview of gender differences in property ownership in the developing world. Using Demographic and Health Survey data from 41 developing countries, this paper seeks to fill this gap, by investigating the extent of gender gaps in the incidence of property ownership (land and housing) and the factors associated with these gaps, focusing on the role of legal systems. The study finds that there is substantial variation in gender gaps across countries, but in almost all countries men are more likely to own property than women. Within countries, gender gaps are most pronounced for groups that are already disadvantaged, that is, the rural population and the poorest quintile. The disadvantage in property ownership experienced by women reflects a variety of factors, including discriminatory norms and laws on inheritance, property ownership, marital regimes, and protection from workplace discrimination. Countries with more gender egalitarian legal regimes generally have higher levels of property ownership by women, especially housing. These results suggest that reforms to establish a more gender-equitable legislative framework could be an important mechanism to increase women's property ownership.
    Keywords: Gender and Development,Urban Housing,Urban Housing and Land Settlements,Municipal Management and Reform,Urban Governance and Management,Inequality,Educational Sciences,Human Rights
    Date: 2020–10–20
  34. By: Timothy Watson; Juha Tervala
    Abstract: This paper estimates the causal impact of the Great Recession-era Building the Education Revolution (BER) school infrastructure stimulus program on labour market outcomes in Australia. The evidence suggests that the program provided value for money, with costs per job-year saved most likely below $8,500 ($US 8,000) on average between 2009 and 2012. In 2009, the main year of program impact, roughly one third of employment benefits related to lowering unemployment, and two-thirds reduced labour force exit. Unemployment reductions were concentrated amongst men, while program effects on employment appear more equally distributed by gender than would be anticipated based on the gender composition of the construction industry. Employment benefits were highly concentrated amongst 25 to 34 year olds, were not greater in regions experiencing higher unemployment at the outset of the program, and geographic demand spillovers may have grown as the program progressed.
    Keywords: employment, fiscal policy, macroeconomic stimulus
    JEL: E24 E62 E65
    Date: 2022–09
  35. By: Sutirtha Bagchi (Department of Economics, Villanova School of Business, Villanova University)
    Abstract: This paper examines Act 32 of the Pennsylvania state legislature which mandated the introduction of withholding for the local earned income tax (EIT) for all employees and the consolidation of a fragmented collection system to one collector per county effective January 1, 2012. I find that the act resulted in increased compliance with the EIT of about 14 percent, with the increased compliance driven entirely by an increase in revenues as opposed to changes to the tax base or rates. I confirm this result using a differences-in-differences analysis that contrasts tax compliance for school districts in Pennsylvania with those in Iowa – the only other state where a majority of school districts levy a local income tax. Falsification exercises examining compliance with the property tax confirm that Act 32 did not impact the property tax in either the event study or the differences-in-differences analysis.
    Keywords: Earned income tax; Tax compliance; Withholding; Event Study
    JEL: H26 H71 R51
    Date: 2022–11
  36. By: Alban Moura; Olivier Pierrard
    Abstract: Not so well. We reach this conclusion by evaluating the empirical performance of a benchmark DSGE model with real estate and collateral constraints. We estimate the model from U.S. data using Bayesian methods and assess its fit along various dimensions. We find that the model is strongly rejected when tested against unrestricted Bayesian VARs and cannot replicate the persistence of real estate prices and various comovements between aggregate demand, real estate prices, and debt. Performance does not improve with alternative definitions of real estate prices, estimation samples, or detrending approaches. Our results raise doubts about the ability of current DSGE models with real estate and collateral constraints to deliver credible policy insights and identify the dimensions in need of improvement.
    Keywords: real estate; housing; DSGE models; collateral constraints; model evaluation
    JEL: C52 E32 E44
    Date: 2022–10
  37. By: Kazakov, Aleksandr; Koetter, Michael; Titze, Mirko; Tonzer, Lena
    Abstract: We use granular project-level information for the largest regional economic development program in German history to study whether government subsidies to firms affect the quantity and quality of bank lending. We combine the universe of recipient firms under the Improvement of Regional Economic Structures program (GRW) with their local banks during 1998-2019. The modalities of GRW subsidies to firms are determined at the EU level. Therefore, we use it to identify bank outcomes. Banks with relationships to more subsidized firms exhibit higher lending volumes without any significant differences in bank stability. Subsidized firms, in turn, borrow more indicating that banks facilitate regional economic development policies.
    Keywords: bank stability,financial intermediation,government subsidies
    JEL: G21 G28 H25
    Date: 2022
  38. By: Luis Sanchez (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, 9 Mappin Str, Sheffield S1 4DT, UK.); Vassilis Sarantides (Athens University of Economics and Business, Patission 76, Athens 10434, Greece)
    Abstract: The Mexican drug war escalated dramatically since 2007. However, its origin is in the 1990s turf wars involving the main drug trafficking organisations operating in the country. In this study we seek to examine the main cause of turf wars at the municipal level between 1995-2006. In particular, we highlight the significant role of a large-scale land titling reform (PROCEDE) that secured property rights for the electorate, previously controlled by the state party (PRI) for seven decades. Our results indicate that political change at the municipality level after the rollout of PROCEDE is a significant determinant of organised crime deaths (OCDs). We further provide evidence that the effect is exacerbated when municipal political change is combined with a change at the gubernational level. We also show that increased intercartel violence is inextricably linked to the geographic expansion of cartel operations. Overall, the fall of the PRI at the subnational level after the rollout of PROCEDE - to signify its strong local roots - broke the equilibrium between corrupted local officials and local drug cartels making the latter more vulnerable to expansion operations of rival cartels resulting in more OCDs.
    Keywords: land reform; PROCEDE; PRI; democratisation; organised crime deaths
    JEL: D72 K42 O54 Q15
    Date: 2022–10
  39. By: Meister, Moritz; Peters, Jan Cornelius; Rossen, Anja
    JEL: C31 R23 R58
    Date: 2022
  40. By: Abou El-Komboz, Lena; Fackler, Thomas
    JEL: D62 J24 O36 R32
    Date: 2022
  41. By: Migheli, Matteo; D’ambrosio, Anna (University of Turin)
    Abstract: Regional resilience has been widely studied in economics and economic geography. The extant literature proposes different measures and definitions, without achieving a unitary view of the concept. In this paper, an interpretation of regional resilience thorough Sen’s capability approach is proposed. In particular, resilience emerges as a collective capability, and “being resilient” as a collective functioning. Individual characteristics of the agents operating in a region and the interaction between them lead to this interpretation. The definitions and measures adopted by the extant literature appear to be parts of a whole, which is difficult to capture in a single analysis.
    Date: 2022–09
  42. By: Dolls, Mathias; Schüle, Paul; Windsteiger, Lisa
    JEL: R21 R31 R38
    Date: 2022
  43. By: Dervisevic,Ervin; Garz,Seth Aaron Levine; Mannava,Aneesh; Perova,Elizaveta
    Abstract: This paper analyzes how local leaders make targeting decisions in the context of a public workfare program in the Lao People~^!!^s Democratic Republic. The study finds that village heads are progressive in their targeting, prioritizing the poorer households in their villages. The study benchmarks this decentralized selection to the common alternative proxy means test method and finds that village heads are at least as progressive as a proxy means test method approach. To illuminate what poverty-related information village heads could plausibly be incorporating into their internal selection decisions, the study designs and administers a set of exercises for village heads to rank villagers on land ownership, access to nutrition, and experience with recent shocks -- indicators that are likely to differ in their observability to village heads and could plausibly be associated with need for public support. The study finds that village heads~^!!^ perceptions, as revealed through the ranking exercise, differ substantially from actual levels reported in surveys of the villagers themselves. The study then uses a data-driven machine learning approach to identify the predictors of village head selection. It concludes that village heads rely on a combination of easily observable household characteristics, forming a holistic impression of household welfare, rather than specific indicators like actual land ownership, nutrition, or economic shocks.
    Keywords: Inequality,Nutrition,Urban Governance and Management,Municipal Management and Reform,Urban Housing,Urban Housing and Land Settlements,Services&Transfers to Poor,Economic Assistance,Access of Poor to Social Services,Disability,Roads&Highways
    Date: 2020–11–03
  44. By: Clement De Chaisemartin (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, J-PAL Europe - Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab - Europe, NBER - National Bureau of Economic Research [New York] - NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research); Nicolás Navarrete (City University of London)
    Abstract: Social and emotional learning (SEL) programs that target disruptive students aim to improve their classroom behavior. Small-scale programs in high-income countries have demonstrated positive effects. Using a randomized experiment, we show that a nationwide SEL program in Chile has no effect. Very disruptive students seem to reduce the program's effectiveness. ADHD being more prevalent in middle-than high-income countries, very disruptive students may be more present there, which could diminish the effectiveness of SEL programs. Moreover, implementation fidelity seems lower in this program than in the small-scale ones considered earlier, which could also explain the program's null effect.
    Keywords: disruptive students,spillover effects,peer effects,social and emotional learning,implementation fidelity
    Date: 2022
  45. By: Shala, Iliriana; Schumacher, Benno
    Abstract: Climate change causes natural disasters to occur at higher frequency and increased severity. Using a unique dataset on German banks, this paper explores how regionally less diversified banks in Germany adjusted their loan loss provisioning following the severe summer flood of 2013, which affected widespread regions mostly in Eastern Germany. The analysis uses a difference-in-differences estimation with banks being allocated to the treatment and control group based on the region of their primary operational activities. This paper yields various results: German savings and cooperative banks located in the affected regions experienced a significantly higher, but ephemeral, impairment flow in the years following the flood. Impairments were mostly driven by corporate loans concentrated in specific sectors, such as agriculture and manufacturing, and to some extent by retail mortgage loans. While results suggest that the profitability of banks is impacted by additional factors, we do not find evidence that banks suffered from damages to their own property. The results are robust to various model specifications.
    Keywords: Natural disaster,climate change,credit risk,profitability,difference-in-differences
    JEL: C12 C21 C23 G21 Q54
    Date: 2022
  46. By: Kleifgen, Eva; Lang, Julia
    JEL: J62 J61 J08
    Date: 2022
  47. By: Beber, Bernd; Scacco, Alexandra
    Abstract: Policy projections and recent research suggest that large numbers of irregular migrants from sub-Saharan Africa will continue to attempt to make their way to Europe over the next few decades. In response, European countries have made and continue to make significant investments in information campaigns designed to discourage irregular African migration. Despite the ubiquity of these campaigns, we know relatively little about potential migrants' prior knowledge and beliefs. To what extent are potential migrants actually misinformed about the migration journey and destination countries? We bring representative survey data collected in Benin City, Nigeria - a center of irregular migration - to bear on this question. Three key insights emerge. First, potential migrants are better informed about destination contexts than is commonly assumed, and if anything appear to underestimate the economic benefits of life in Europe. Second, they are relatively less well informed about specific risks and other features of the irregular migration journey. Third, we find evidence of optimism bias. Respondents are generally hopeful when asked about Nigerian irregular migrants' prospects of being able to reach and stay in Europe, but they are especially optimistic when asked about their own chances. Taken together, these findings suggest that existing migration-related information campaigns, and with them a central component of migration policies in countries across the Global North, rest on shaky foundations. Most problematically, our study suggests that campaigns risk becoming misinformation campaigns, particularly when they suggest to potential migrants that they are overestimating the benefits of living in Europe.
    Keywords: Migration,information campaigns,beliefs,Nigeria
    JEL: F22 O15 D83 D91
    Date: 2022
  48. By: Risto Conte Keivabu (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Ugofilippo Basellini (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Emilio Zagheni (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2022
  49. By: Hammer, Luisa; Hertweck, Matthias Sebastian
    JEL: E24 F22 J31 J61
    Date: 2022
  50. By: Garcia-Hernandez, Ana; Grossman, Guy; Michelitch, Kristin
    Abstract: Women politicians face barriers that can undermine their performance relative to men. Using original micro-data from Uganda, we test for gender gaps in performance across different job duties in subnational legislatures. We hypothesize, and find, that performance gender gaps are greatest in job duties that require greater peer interaction (legislative duties), while no such gaps exist in more individually-performed duties (e.g., meeting with the electorate, facilitating constituency development). Fine-grained network data reveals women's informal exclusion in politician networks, and this exclusion holds explanatory power in explaining job duties requiring interaction with fellow politicians. Further, qualifications and previous experience also determine part of the gender performance gap in more intricate tasks. Moving forward, advocacy organizations may consider holding trainings and simulations with politicians on performing job duties in ways that encourage cross-gender professional network ties.
    Keywords: Politician performance,informal exclusion,networks,gender gap
    JEL: O10 H79 H83 H11
    Date: 2022
  51. By: Tabuga, Aubrey D.; Domingo, Sonny N.; Umlas, Anna Jennifer L.; Zuluaga, Katrina Mae C.
    Abstract: Social norms and structures are vital factors that shape people’s behavior and attitudes. It is, therefore, useful to analyze such underlying forces in the creation of strategies that are meant to influence behavior and activities. Agricultural extension services such as information dissemination and farmers’ training are some of the interventions that can benefit from such analyses especially within a context of limited human and financial resources. The idea is to use the lessons learned from the analysis of social networks and norms in identifying potential local knowledge and information disseminators, thereby aiding the extension services. It also helps in the formulation of more contextualized approaches for reaching the underserved and hard-to-reach areas. Applying this approach, this study used the case of a remote upland area in Atok, Benguet, a major vegetable producer. This study used social network analysis to develop insights for designing more effective extension strategies. The results show that interventions like information and education campaigns can be improved by acknowledging the nuances in social relation structures. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from date of posting. Email
    Keywords: agriculture; Philippines; upland farming;Social network analysis; information and education campaign; Benguet farming
    Date: 2021
  52. By: Grigoryan, Karen; Arpanahi, Ali
    Abstract: Armenia-Iran North South Transport corridor is vital for Iran and Armenia and also for all parties involved. Recently, India increased its interest in Armenia and would like to see the INSTC passing through the Armenian territories, keeping in mind that Armenia is also the only country in the EAEU that has a land border with Iran. Taking into account Iran's desire to become a full member of the EAEU in the future, as well as India's interest in the EAEU structure and possible future membership, Armenia's chances of joining regional trade projects would be high. North South Transport Corridor route via India, Iran, Armenia, Georgia and Russia. This route is 30% cheaper and 40% shorter than the current traditional route. A country with a small domestic market like Armenia, of course, needs to expand its economic and trade ties with other countries in the world. The "One Belt, One Road" initiative can provide such an opportunity. An opportunity will also be created for the development of the Armenian transport infrastructure. Armenia aimed to construct the "North-South" transport road, 550-km long, to facilitate communication with Iran and Georgia and beyond.
    Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative,Armenia,Iran,China,India,trade,transport infrastructure,Silk RoadRoute
    Date: 2022
  53. By: Florent Laroche (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Stéphanie Souche (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: In a fully Autonomous Vehicle (AV), what activities could be performed when travelling to replace driving activity? The ideal would be to do activities similar to those done in a train or at home. This paper reviews the existing literature to compare the activities expected in an AV with findings obtained for trains and cars. It focuses on a selection of 36 papers mainly on transport economics published between 2000 and 2021. The findings show that train users are more multitask than others. They do several activities of which reading and sleeping are the most popular. Car travellers perform fewer activities other than driving except for making phone calls and listening to music. For AVs, the first studies show that future users would be more in the position of a car driver than a train passenger, thereby reducing the benefit of AVs. Finally, the analysis reveals heterogeneity in the definition of activities and imperfect consistency with the characteristics of AVs. We suggest considering physical involvement (hands and eyes), whether deliberate or not, to define an activity. Sleeping becomes an active activity and talking a passive activity.
    Keywords: Autonomous vehicle,Activities,Time use,Multitasking,Working Papers du LAET
    Date: 2022
  54. By: Jorge Luis García; James J. Heckman
    Abstract: This paper compares early childhood enrichment programs that promote social mobility for disadvantaged children within and across generations. Instead of conducting a standard meta-analysis, we present a harmonized primary data analysis of programs that shape current policy. Our analysis is a template for rigorous syntheses and comparisons across programs. We analyze new long-run life-cycle data collected for iconic programs when participants are middle-aged and their children are in their twenties. The iconic programs are omnibus in nature and offer many services to children and their parents. We compare them with relatively low-cost more focused home-visiting programs. Successful interventions target both children and their caregivers. They engage caregivers and improve the home lives of children. They permanently boost cognitive and non-cognitive skills. Participants in programs that enrich home environments grow up with better skills, jobs, earnings, marital stability, and health, as well as reduced participation in crime. Long-run monetized gains are substantially greater than program costs for iconic programs. We investigate the mechanisms promoting successful family lives for participants and find intergenerational effects on their children. A study of focused home-visiting programs that target parents enables us to isolate a crucial component of successful programs: they activate and promote parenting skills of child caregivers. The home-visiting programs we analyze produce outcomes comparable to those of the iconic omnibus programs. National implementation of the programs with long-run follow up that we analyze would substantially shrink the overall US Black-White earnings gap.
    JEL: D13 J13 J18 J24 J31
    Date: 2022–10
  55. By: Daisuke Kurisu; Yasumasa Matsuda
    Abstract: In this study, we develop a general asymptotic theory of local polynomial (LP) regression for spatial data observed at irregularly spaced locations in a sampling region Rn ¼ Rd. We adopt a stochastic sampling design that can generate irregularly spaced sampling sites in a flexible manner and include both pure increasing and mixed increasing domain framework. We first introduce a nonparametric regression model for spatial data defined on Rd and then establish the asymptotic normality of LP estimators with general order p ? 1. We also propose methods for constructing confidence intervals and establish uniform convergence rates of LP estimators. Our dependence structure conditions on the underlying random field cover a wide class of random fields such as L Levy-driven continuous autoregressive moving average random fields. As an application of our main results, we also discuss a two-sample testing problem for mean functions and their partial derivatives.
    Date: 2022–11
  56. By: Etienne Espagne (World Bank); Yen Boi Ha (ETH Zurich); Kenneth Houngbedji (LEDa-DIAL (IRD, CNRS, Universite Paris-Dauphine, Universite PSL)); Thanh Ngo-Duc (University of Science and Technology of Hanoi)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of typhoons on economic activities in Vietnam. During the period covered by our analysis, 1992-2013, we observed 63 typhoons affecting different locations of the country in different years with varying intensity. Using measures of the intensity of nightlight from satellite imagery as a proxy for the level of economic activity, we study how the nighttime light brightness varies across locations that were variably affected by the tropical cyclones. The results suggest that typhoons have on average dimmed nighttime luminosity of the places hit by 5 ± 5.8 % or 8 ± 7.8 % depending on the specifications we made.
    Keywords: Natural disasters, economic growth, Vietnam
    JEL: Q54 Q52 C21 O53
    Date: 2022–07
  57. By: Clément Malgouyres (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics); Thierry Mayer (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique); Clément Mazet-Sonilhac (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)
    Abstract: Suárez Serrato and Zidar (2016) identify state corporate tax incidence in a spatial equilibrium model with imperfectly mobile firms. Their identification argument rests on comparative-statics omitting a channel implied by their model: the link between common determinants of a location's attractiveness and the average idiosyncratic productivity of firms choosing that location. This compositional margin causes the labor demand elasticity to be independent from the product demand elasticity, impeding the identification of incidence from the four estimated reduced-form effects. Assigning consensual values to the unidentified parameters, we find that the incidence share born by firm-owners is closer to 25% than 40%.
    Keywords: Incidence,Corporate income tax,Discrete/Continuous choice
    Date: 2022
  58. By: Ollinger, Michael; Guthrie, Joanne
    Abstract: Nutrition standards for the USDA’s National School Lunch program were updated in 2012, with changes requiring more fruit and vegetables. Most of the foods served in school meals come from commercial sources, but USDA also offers foods to schools in a program called USDA Foods. This report examines changes in food choices in the USDA Foods program during 2006–17 in response to revised nutrition standards. The report finds that the value of fresh fruits and vegetables ordered from USDA Foods and distributed by the U.S. Department of Defense DoD Fresh program rose from 5 to 15 percent of the value of all USDA Foods orders.
    Keywords: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety
    Date: 2022–09
  59. By: HAMAGUCHI Nobuaki
    Abstract: We analyze the current status and challenges of municipal digital transformation (DX) based on data from an original questionnaire survey, showing that progress in DX has so far remained at a low level, with small municipalities lagging behind. Many factors hinder DX; these include lack of expertise, difficulties in internal human resource development, and many written procedures. Smaller municipalities face hardware limitations, such as inadequate IT equipment and security systems. Our empirical results suggest that municipal DX at the introductory stage is expected to improve the quality and efficiency of public services through the digitization of administrative procedures and automation. DX in the later stage, in which municipalities adapt their workflow or organization to the digital environment, is conducive to teleworking, data-driven decision making, evidence-based policy making, and proliferation of DX in the local industry from the perspective of industrial policy.
    Date: 2022–10
  60. By: Azevedo,Joao Pedro Wagner De
    Abstract: COVID-19-related school closures are pushing countries off track from achieving their learning goals. This paper builds on the concept of learning poverty and draws on axiomatic properties from social choice literature to propose and motivate a distribution-sensitive measures of learning poverty. Numerical, empirical, and practical reasons for the relevance and usefulness of these complementary inequality sensitive aggregations for simulating the effects of COVID-19 are presented. In a post-COVID-19 scenario of no remediation and low mitigation effectiveness for the effects of school closures, the simulations show that learning poverty increases from 53 to 63 percent. Most of this increase seems to occur in lower-middle-income and upper-middle-income countries, especially in East Asia and the Pacific, Latin America, and South Asia. The countries that had the highest levels of learning poverty before COVID-19 (predominantly in Africa and the low-income country group) might have the smallest absolute and relative increases in learning poverty, reflecting how great the learning crisis was in those countries before the pandemic. Measures of learning poverty and learning deprivation sensitive to changes in distribution, such as gap and severity measures, show differences in learning loss regional rankings. Africa stands to lose the most. Countries with higher inequality among the learning poor, as captured by the proposed learning poverty severity measure, would need far greater adaptability to respond to broader differences in student needs.
    Keywords: null
    Date: 2020–10–21
  61. By: Alexander James; Nathaly M. Rivera; Brock Smith
    Abstract: We estimate the effect of cash transfers on voter turnout, leveraging a large-scale natural experiment, the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD) program, which provides residents with a check of varying size one month before election day. We find that larger transfers cause people to vote, especially in gubernatorial elections in which a 10% increase in cash ($182) causes a 1.4 percentage point increase in turnout. Effects are concentrated among racial minorities, the young, and poor. There is little evidence that transfers reduce logistical costs of voting, but rather operate by reducing voter apathy among the low-income electorate.
    Date: 2022–10
  62. By: Jochimsen, Beate; Fendel, Tanja
    JEL: J13 J22 H31
    Date: 2022
  63. By: Deakin, Elizabeth PhD; Munoz, Jasmin; Son, Daisy
    Abstract: The objectives of this study are to formulate policies and practices that can be used to identify place names that have derogatory or racist linkages and provide recommendations on how to rename or remove harmful names and monuments in the California transportation right of way (ROW). This study was requested by the California Department of Transportation and conducted through the University of California, Berkeley Institute of Transportation Studies Technology Transfer Program.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2022–09–01
  64. By: Essbaumer, Elisabeth
    Abstract: This paper documents the remote potential across Swiss industries, relying on data provided by the Swiss Statistical Office. Overall, the obtained results show that 47.1% of jobs in the current Swiss economy can at least partly be performed from home. In comparison, only 25.8% of employees indicate that they work remotely. Consequently, the implementation of remote work could almost be doubled to fully exploit the existing potential. Furthermore, there exists a substantial variation across Swiss industries and for employees’ socio-demographic characteristics. Overall, Swiss industries are able to adopt remote work when required, which is demonstrated by the exploitation of previously untapped potentials during the COVID-19 pandemic.
    Keywords: Remote work, Switzerland, digital transformation, teleworking
    JEL: D24 J24 J22 R12 O33 P18
    Date: 2022–10
  65. By: Petra Gram Cavalca (Danish Ministry of Finance); Mette Ejrnæs (University of Copenhagen and CEBI, Department of Economics); Mette Gørtz (University of Copenhagen and CEBI, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: We investigate the short-term impact of out-of-home care on child health, schooling and juvenile crime. Using an event study to examine the dynamics around the time of placement, we document a clear deterioration of mental health and increasing crime rates before placement. After placement, we find a decrease in hospitalizations and an improvement in schooling outcomes. For a sub-sample, we use caseworkers’ risk-assessment to form a control group of children who were at risk of a placement. For the marginal child, we find little evidence of a causal effect of placement, as we also see improvements for the control group.
    Keywords: Child protection, health, schooling, crime, event study
    JEL: H75 I14 I21 I38 J12 J13
    Date: 2022–11–04
  66. By: Rodriguez Castelan,Carlos; Vazquez,Emmanuel Jose; Winkler-Seales,Hernan Jorge
    Abstract: Evidence on the effect of exports on welfare at the local level is scarce. Using a unique dataset of international trade and poverty maps for almost 2,000 Mexican municipalities between 2004 and 2014, the studypresented in this paper provides new evidence on the impact of a significant rise in exports on poverty and inequalityat the local level. The analysis implements an instrumental variable approach that combines the initial structure ofexports across municipalities with global trends in exports from developing to developed countries by sector. Theresults show that a 10 percent increase in the ratio of exports to workers reduces income inequality measured by theGini coefficient by 0.17 point (using a 0 to 100 scale), but no significant effects on poverty reduction or averagehousehold incomes are identified. The lack of impacts on average incomes is driven by a rise in the supply of laborat the local level because municipalities with higher export growth experienced an increase in labor force participationand attracted more net migration, particularly of unskilled workers. Therefore, while total labor incomes grew inresponse to an increase in exports, average labor income per worker did not change. Declining remittances also bluntedthe effect of growing exports on household incomes.
    Date: 2020–10–27
  67. By: Axelle Arquié; Julia Bertin
    Abstract: Are workers equal in front of employers' concentration? We show, using instrumental variable estimations for France between 2000 and 2019, that employers' concentration has a negative heterogenous effect on wage, with the lowest earners being the most vulnerable. This increased wage inequality could reflect some efficiency gains if concentration allows employers to impose a more demanding selection process, improving sorting i.e. workers selection, thus generating both inequality and higher productivity. We find, exploring within-firm and between-firm inequality, that it is not the case. Employers' concentration instead generates wage inequality by undercutting relatively more the bargaining power of the lowest earners.
    Keywords: Labor Market Concentration;Inequality;Sorting
    JEL: J31 J42
    Date: 2022–10
  68. By: Venturini, Alessandra; Mosso, Cristina; Ricci, Andrea (University of Turin)
    Abstract: Integration of migrants is a priority in destination countries, but high unemployment and low wages and a strong segmentation still dominate the picture. The linguistic distance and the cultural distance are at the basis of the lack of soft skills which limit their inclusion. Cultural policies which have been considered redundant, are instead a priority for their positive effects on individuals and, in particular, on the foreigners. The present survey reviews the extensive research in the field using choir participation as pivotal activity. The results are measured with physiological and psychological indicators to understand the increase in self-esteem, self-efficacy and social inclusion which are needed for migrants to grasp the social capital of destination countries needed for integration. Even if the empirical studies are not scientifically convincing, i.e. small samples, no randomization, the numerosity and variety persuades about the positive effect.
    Date: 2022–09

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