nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2022‒11‒07
94 papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Housing policy and affordable housing By Christian A. L. Hilber; Olivier Schoni
  2. Exploring the Urban Model : Employment, Housing, and Infrastructure By Sturm,Daniel Marbod; Takeda,Kohei; Venables,Anthony J.
  3. The Effect of Immigration on the German Housing Market By Umut Unal; Bernd Hayo; Isil Erol
  4. How the Rise of Teleworking Will Reshape Labor Markets and Cities By Toshitaka Gokan; Sergei Kichko; Jesse A. Matheson; Jacques-Francois Thisse
  5. Spatial Misallocation,Informality, and Transit Improvements : Evidence from Mexico City By Zarate Vasquez,Roman David
  6. Private Cities : Implications for Urban Policy in Developing Countries By Rama,Martin G.; Li,Yue
  7. Road Capacity, Domestic Trade and Regional Outcomes By Cosar,Kerem,Demir,Banu,Ghose,Devaki,Young,Nathaniel Virgil C
  8. The Impact of Ethiopia’s Road Investment Program on Economic Development and Land Use :Evidence from Satellite Data By Alder,Simon; Croke,Kevin; Duhaut,Alice; Marty,Robert Andrew; Vaisey,Ariana Brynn
  9. Heat, Crime, and Punishment By Behrer,Arnold Patrick; Bolotnyy,Valentin
  10. Where Are All the Jobs ? A Machine Learning Approach for High Resolution Urban Employment Prediction inDeveloping Countries By Barzin,Samira; Avner,Paolo; Maruyama Rentschler,Jun Erik; O’Clery,Neave
  11. Does Population Sorting through Internal Migration Increase Healthcare Costs and Needs in Peripheral Regions? By Kulshreshtha, Shobhit; Salm, Martin; Wübker, Ansgar
  12. "Workhorses of Opportunity": Regional Universities Increase Local Social Mobility By Howard, Greg; Weinstein, Russell
  13. Profiling Living Conditions of the DRC Urban Population : Access to Housing and Services inKinshasa Province By Batana,Yele Maweki; Jarotschkin,Alexandra; Konou,Akakpo Domefa; Masaki,Takaaki; Nakamura,Shohei; Viboudoulou Vilpoux,Mervy Ever
  14. Leveling Up : Impacts of Performance-Based Grants on Municipal Revenue Collection in Mozambique By Erman,Alvina Elisabeth; Solis Uehara,Carla Cristina; Beaudet,Chloé
  15. Mobilizing Parents at Home and at School : An Experiment on Primary Education in Angola By Di Maro,Vincenzo; Leeffers,Stefan; Serra,Danila; Vicente,Pedro C.
  16. Spatial Heterogeneity of COVID-19 Impacts on Urban Household Incomes : Between- and Within-City Evidence from Two African Countries By Batana,Yele Maweki,Nakamura,Shohei,Rajashekar,Anirudh Venkatanarayan,Viboudoulou Vilpoux,Mervy Ever,Wieser,Christina
  17. Flood Protection and Land Value Creation - Not All Resilience Investments Are Created Equal By Avner,Paolo; Viguié,Vincent; Jafino,Bramka Arga; Hallegatte,Stephane
  18. The Effect of School Diversity on Academic Performance By Ciarán Murphy
  19. Bikeability and the induced demand for cycling By Mogens Fosgerau; Miroslawa Lukawska; Mads Paulsen; Thomas Kj{\ae}r Rasmussen
  20. Demographic and Spatial Disparities in Labor Market Outcomes within the Kinshasa Urban Landscape By Batana,Yele Maweki; Jarotschkin,Alexandra; Konou,Akakpo Domefa; Masaki,Takaaki; Nakamura,Shohei; Viboudoulou Vilpoux,Mervy Ever
  21. Lowering Barriers to Remote Education: Experimental Impacts on Parental Responses and Learning By Beam, Emily A.; Mukherjee, Priya; Navarro-Sola, Laia
  22. A New Agenda for Local Democracy: Building Just, Inclusive, and Participatory Cities By Brittany Andrew-Amofah; Alexandra Flynn; Patricia Wood
  23. Backward-bending Labor Supply and Urban Location By Tabuchi, Takatoshi
  24. Charter School Practices and Student Selection: An Equilibrium Analysis By Dennis Epple; Francisco Martinez-Mora; Richard Romano
  25. Preparation, Practice, and Beliefs : A Machine Learning Approach to Understanding Teacher Effectiveness By Filmer,Deon P.; Nahata,Vatsal; Sabarwal,Shwetlena
  26. Proximity, Similarity, and Friendship Formation: Theory and Evidence By A. Arda Gitmez; Rom\'an Andr\'es Z\'arate
  27. Introducing the Adequate Housing Index (AHI) : A New Approach to Estimate the Adequate HousingDeficit within and across Emerging Economies By Behr,Daniela Monika; Chen,Lixue; Goel,Ankita; Haider,Khondoker Tanveer; Singh,Sandeep - CSEFI; Zaman,Asad
  28. Urban Agglomeration and Firm Innovation: Evidence from Developing Asia By Chen,Liming; Hasan,Rana; Jiang,Yi
  29. A Back-of-the-Envelope Analysis of House Prices: Czech Republic, 2013-2021 By Roman Sustek
  30. Equity Scores for Public Transit Lines from Open-Data and Accessibility Measures By Amirhesam Badeanlou; Andrea Araldo; Marco Diana; Vincent Gauthier
  31. What Explains Boys’ Educational Underachievement in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia ? By Elsayed,Mahmoud Abduh Ali; Clerkin,Aidan; Pitsia,Vasiliki; Aljabri,Nayyaf; Al-Harbi,Khaleel
  32. Cities in a Pandemic: Evidence from China By Badi H. Baltagi; Ying Deng; Jing Li; Zhenlin Yang
  33. The impact of public transportation and commuting on urban labour markets: evidence from the new survey of London life and labour, 1929-32 By Andrew Seltzer; Jonathan Wadsworth
  34. Empowering Migrants : Impacts of a Migrant’s Amnesty on Crime Reports By Ibáñez,Ana María; Rozo Villarraga,Sandra Viviana; Bahar,Dany
  35. Comparing the Effects of Policies for the Labor Market Integration of Refugees By Mette Foged; Linea Hasager; Giovanni Peri
  36. Using Registry Data to Assess Gender-Differentiated Land and Credit Market Effects of Urban Land Policy Reform : Evidence from Lesotho By Ali,Daniel Ayalew; Deininger,Klaus W.
  37. Can grit be taught? Lessons from a nationwide field experiment with middle-school students By Omar Arias; Pedro Carneiro; Angela Duckworth; Lauren Eskreis-Winkler; Christian Krekel; Ana Maria Munoz Boudet; Violeta Petroska-Beska; Indhira Santos
  38. Bureaucrats, Tournament Competition, and Performance Manipulation : Evidence from Chinese Cities By Xu,Gang; Xu,L. Colin; Si,Ruichao
  39. Tax Incentives for High Skilled Migrants: Evidence from a Preferential Tax Scheme in the Netherlands By Timm, Lisa Marie; Giuliodori, Massimo; Muller, Paul
  40. Active Commuting and the Health of Workers By Echeverría, Lucía; Gimenez-Nadal, J. Ignacio; Molina, José Alberto
  41. Peer networks and malleability of educational aspirations By González Amador, Michelle; Cowan, Robin; Nillesen, Eleonora
  42. Context Diversity Effects Can Generalize Across Social Domains: Relating Racial Diversity to Implicit Associations of Sexual Orientation By Mehrgol Tiv; Cody Spence
  43. Estimating the Demand for Informal Public Transport : Evidence from Antananarivo, Madagascar By Iimi,Atsushi
  44. Can Grit Be Taught ? Lessons from a Nationwide Field Experiment with Middle-School Students By Santos,Indhira Vanessa; Petroska-Beska,Violeta; Amaro Da Costa Luz Carneiro,Pedro Manuel; Eskreis-Winkler,Lauren; Munoz Boudet,Ana Maria; Berniell,Ines; Krekel,Christian; Arias,Omar; Duckworth,Angela Lee
  45. Health Shocks and Housing Downsizing: How Persistent Is 'Ageing in Place'? By Costa-Font, Joan; Vilaplana-Prieto, Cristina
  46. Socioemotional Skills Development in Highly Violent Contexts : Measurements and Impacts By Dinarte Diaz,Lelys Ileana; Egana-delSol,Pablo; Martinez A.,Claudia
  47. Scalable Early Warning Systems for School Dropout Prevention : Evidence from a 4.000-School Randomized Controlled Trial By Haimovich Paz,Francisco; Vazquez,Emmanuel Jose; Adelman,Melissa Ann
  48. Trade Networks in Latin America : Spatial Inefficiencies and Optimal Expansions By Gorton,Nicole Emily; Ianchovichina,Elena
  49. Immigration, Labor Markets and Discrimination : Evidence from the Venezuelan Exodus in Peru By Groeger,Andre; León-Ciliotta,Gianmarco; Stillman,Steven Eric
  50. Proximity without Productivity : Agglomeration Effects with Plant-Level Output and Price Data By Grover,Arti Goswami; Maloney,William F.
  51. Rural-Urban Migration in Developing Countries : Lessons from the Literature By Selod,Harris; Shilpi,Forhad J.
  52. School closures and educational path: how the Covid-19 pandemic affected transitions to college By Fernanda Estevan; Lucas Finamor
  53. Long-Term Effects of the 1923 Mass Refugee Inflow on Social Cohesion in Greece By Murard,Elie
  54. Heterogenous Rates of Return on Homes and Other Real Estate: Do the Rich Do Better? Do Black Households Do Worse? By Edward N. Wolff
  55. Corridors without Borders in West Africa By Lebrand,Mathilde Sylvie Maria
  56. Extortion and Civic Engagement among Guatemalan Deportees By Denny,Elaine Kathryn; Dow,David; Levy,Gabriella; Villamizar-Chaparro,Mateo
  57. The Effect of Preferential Admissions on the College Participation of Disadvantaged Students: The Role of Pre-College Choices By Michela Tincani; Fabian Kosse; Enrico Miglino
  58. Heterogeneous Agglomeration Economies in the Developing Countries : The Roles of FirmCharacteristics, Sector Tradability, and Urban Mobility By Burger,Martijn; Ianchovichina,Elena; Akbar,Prottoy Aman
  59. The Kids Aren't Alright: Parental Job Loss and Children's Outcomes within and beyond Schools By Britto, Diogo; Melo, Caíque; Sampaio, Breno
  60. Inclusive Refugee-Hosting in Uganda Improves LocalDevelopment and Prevents Public Backlash By Zhou,Yang-Yang; Grossman,Guy; Ge,Shuning
  61. Natural disasters, epidemics and intergovernmental relations: More or less decentralisation? By Luiz de Mello; João Tovar Jalles
  62. Long-Term Effects of Hiring Subsidies for Unemployed Youths-Beware of Spillovers By Andrea Albanese; Bart Cockx; Muriel Dejemeppe
  63. When Promising Interventions Fail : Personalized Coaching for Teachers in a Middle-Income Country By Amaro Da Costa Luz Carneiro,Pedro Manuel; Cruz-Aguayo,Yyannu; Intriago,Ruthy; Ponce,Juan; Schady,Norbert Rudiger; Schodt,Sarah
  64. Revisiting excess commuting and self-employment: The case of Latin America By Giménez-Nadal, José Ignacio; Velilla, Jorge; Ortega, Raquel
  65. Agglomeration Economies in Developing Countries : A Meta-Analysis By Grover,Arti Goswami; Lall,Somik V.; Timmis,Jonathan David
  66. Evidence-based Local Planning and Budgeting Using the CBMS By Reyes, Celia M.; Arboneda, Arkin; Vargas, Anna Rita P.
  67. Opening the Labor Market to Qualified Immigrants in Absence of Linguistic Barriers By Gatti, Nicolò; Mazzonna, Fabrizio; Parchet, Raphaël; Pica, Giovanni
  68. The Impacts of COVID-19 on Informal Labor Markets : Evidence from Peru By Cueva,Ronald; Del Carpio,Ximena Vanessa; Winkler,Hernan Jorge
  69. Social Cohesion and Refugee-Host Interactions : Evidence from East Africa By Betts,Alexander Milton Stedman; Stierna,Maria Flinder; Omata,Naohiko; Sterck,Olivier Christian Brigitte
  70. Spillover Effects of Immigration Policies on Children's Human Capital By Esther Arenas-Arroyo; Bernhard Schmidpeter
  71. Testing Classic Theories of Migration in the Lab By Batista,Catia; Mckenzie,David J.
  72. Labor Market Integration, Local Conditions and Inequalities : Evidence from Refugees in Switzerland By Müller,Tobias; Pannatier,Pia; Viarengo,Martina Giorgia
  73. What Are the Benefits of Government Assistance with Household Energy Bills ? Evidence from Ukraine By Alberini,Anna; Umapathi,Nithin
  74. Impacts of Temporary Migration on Development in Origin Countries By Bossavie,Laurent Loic Yves; Ozden,Caglar
  75. Regional Analysis of the Philippine Services Sector By Serafica, Ramonette B.; Vergara, Jean Colleen M.; Oren, Queen Cel A.
  76. Trade, Internal Migration, and Human Capital : Who Gains from India’s IT Boom? By Ghose,Devaki
  77. Spillover Effects of Immigration Policies on Children's Human Capital By Arenas-Arroyo, Esther; Schmidpeter, Bernhard
  78. Long-Run Effects of Trade Liberalization on Local Labor Markets : Evidence from South Africa By Bastos,Paulo S. R.; Santos Villagran,Nicolas Eduardo
  79. Rapid Urban Growth in Flood Zones : Global Evidence since 1985 By Maruyama Rentschler,Jun Erik; Avner,Paolo; Marconcini,Mattia; Su,Rui; Strano,Emanuele; Bernard,Louise Alice Karine; Riom,Capucine Anne Veronique; Hallegatte,Stephane
  80. The Value of Time: Evidence from Auctioned Cab Rides By Nicholas Buchholz; Laura Doval; Jakub Kastl; Filip Matejka; Tobias Salz
  81. How Has COVID-19 Affected the Intention to Migrate via the Backway to Europe By Bah,Tijan L; Batista,Catia; Gubert,Flore; Mckenzie,David J.
  82. Immigrants and Trade Union Membership: Does Integration into Society and Workplace Play a Moderating Role? By Bedaso, Fenet Jima; Jirjahn, Uwe; Goerke, Laszlo
  83. Firm Productivity and Locational Choice : Evidence from Mozambique By Iimi,Atsushi
  84. Effect of the Jamaica Early Childhood Stimulation Intervention on Labor Market Outcomes at Age 31 By Gertler,Paul J.,Heckman,James J.,Pinto,Rodrigo Ribeiro Antunes,Chang-Lopez,Susan M.,Grantham-Mcgregor,Sally,Vermeersch,Christel M. J.,Walker,Susan,Wright,Amika S.
  85. Forced Migration, Social Cohesion and Conflict: The 2015 Refugee Inflow in Germany By Albarosa,Emanuele; Elsner,Benjamin
  86. The effect of monitoring and crowds on crime and law enforcement: A natural experiment from European football By Brad R. Humphreys; Alexander Marsella; Levi Perez
  87. Immigration and Support for Redistribution: Lessons from Europe By Charlotte Cavaillé; Karine van der Straeten
  88. The impact of fintech lending on credit access for U.S. small businesses By Giulio Cornelli; Jon Frost; Leonardo Gambacorta; Julapa Jagtiani
  89. Belt and Road Initiative as an innovative platform for technology transfer: Opportunities for Armenia By Margaryan, Atom S.; Terzyan, Haroutyun T.; Grigoryan, Emil A.
  90. The research university, invention and industry: evidence from German history By Jeremiah Dittmar; Ralph R. Meisenzahl
  91. The Geography of Displacement, Refugees’ Camps and Social Conflicts By Coniglio,Nicola Daniele; Peragine,Vitorocco; Vurchio,Davide
  92. Scores, Camera, Action : Social Accountability and Teacher Incentives in Remote Areas By Gaduh,Arya Budhiastra; Pradhan,Menno Prasad; Priebe,Jan; Susanti,Dewi
  93. A Dynamic Model of Fiscal Decentralization and Public Debt Accumulation By Guo,Si; Pei,Yun; Xie,Leiyu
  94. Social push and the direction of innovation By Elias Einio; Josh Feng; Xavier Jaravel

  1. By: Christian A. L. Hilber; Olivier Schoni
    Abstract: Lack of affordable housing is a growing and often primary policy concern in cities around the world. The main underlying cause for the 'affordability crisis', which has been mounting for decades, is a combination of strong and growing demand for housing in desirable areas in conjunction with tight long-run supply constraints, both physical and man-made regulatory ones. Key policies to tackle affordability issues include rent control, social or public housing, housing vouchers, low-income tax credits, inclusionary zoning, mortgage subsidies, or government equity loans. Existing evidence reveals that the effectiveness and the social welfare and distributional effects of these policies depend not only on policy design, but also on local market conditions, and general equilibrium adjustments. While many housing policies are ineffective, cost-inefficient, or have undesirable distributional effects, they tend to be politically popular. This is partly because targeted households poorly understand adverse indirect effects. Partly, it is because the true beneficiaries are often politically powerful existing property owners, who are not targeted but nevertheless benefit via house price and rent capitalization effects. Designing policies that tackle the root causes of the affordability crisis and help those in need, yet are palatable to a voter majority, is a major challenge for benevolent policy makers.
    Keywords: housing policy, affordable housing, supply constraints, land use controls, housing subsidies, public housing, social housing, rent control, inequality
    Date: 2022–05–11
  2. By: Sturm,Daniel Marbod; Takeda,Kohei; Venables,Anthony J.
    Abstract: The paper explores the properties of a modern urban model in which households’ and firms’locations in the city are endogenously determined as functions of technology, preferences, and geography. Thisclass of model provides insights into the factors that determine the shape and growth of cities. The paperincreases understanding by studying the comparative static properties of the model, the effects of various policyinterventions, and the circumstances under which different possible city types (mono- versus poly-centric) arise. It isa step to tailoring model structure to adequately describe real world cities of different sizes and types.
    Keywords: Transport Services,Labor Markets,Green Issues,Urban Governance and Management,Urban Housing and Land Settlements,Municipal Management and Reform,Urban Housing,Hazard Risk Management,Social Risk Management,Disaster Management
    Date: 2022–01–24
  3. By: Umut Unal (Research Institute for Labour and Social Affairs (RILSA)); Bernd Hayo (Marburg University); Isil Erol (Oezyegin University)
    Abstract: This study provides evidence of the causal impact of immigration on German house prices, flat prices, and flat rents using an extensive dataset covering 382 administrative districts over the period 2004−2020. Employing a panel-data approach and a manually constructed shift-share instrument, we show that international migration has a significantly positive short-term effect on German flat prices and rents. House prices are not significantly affected. We estimate that an increase in international migration of 1% of the initial district population causes a hike in flat prices of up to 3% as well as a hike in flat rents of about 1%. The increase in flat prices is more than twice as high as this at the lower end of the market, whereas the flat rental market demonstrates a more linear response. We also discover that immigration’s impact on flat prices and rents does not significantly differ across rural and urban areas within the country.
    Keywords: Immigration; Housing prices; Rents; Instrumental variable; IV quantile regression; German housing market
    JEL: J61 R23 R31
    Date: 2022
  4. By: Toshitaka Gokan; Sergei Kichko; Jesse A. Matheson; Jacques-Francois Thisse
    Abstract: In recent years the land-rent gradient for the city of London has flattened by 17 percentage points. Further, teleworking has increased 24 percentage point for skilled workers, but much less for unskilled workers. To rationalize these stylized facts, we propose a model of the monocentric city with heterogeneous workers and teleworking. Skilled workers, working in final goods production, can telework while unskilled workers, working in either final goods or local services production, cannot. We show that increased teleworking flattens the land-rent gradient, and eventually skilled workers move from the city center to the city’s periphery, fundamentally changing the city structure. The increased teleworking has implications for unskilled workers who move from the local services sector into final goods, leading to greater wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers. The model is extended to two cities which differ in productivity. Teleworking allows skilled workers of the more productive city to reside in the less productive city where housing is cheaper. This increases housing prices in the less productive city, relative to the more productive city, and has implications for unskilled workers in both cities. We provide empirical evidence from housing prices in England which is consistent with this result.
    Keywords: telecommuting, working from home, gentrified cities, doughnut cities, inter-city commuting
    JEL: J60 R00
    Date: 2022
  5. By: Zarate Vasquez,Roman David
    Abstract: This paper proposes a new mechanism to explain resource misallocation in developing countries:the high commuting costs within cities that prevent workers from accessing formal employment. To test this mechanism,the paper combines a rich collection of microdata and exploits the opening of new subway lines in Mexico City. Thefindings show that transit improvements reduce informality by 7 percent in areas near the new stations. The paperdevelops a spatial model that accounts for the direct effects of infrastructure in perfectly economies andallocative efficiency. Changes in allocative efficiency driven by workers’ reallocation to the formal sector amplifythe gains by 20–25 percent.
    Date: 2022–03–30
  6. By: Rama,Martin G.; Li,Yue
    Abstract: Institutional weaknesses limit the capacity of local governments to support efficienturbanization in developing countries. They also lead to the emergence of large developers with the clout to build entirecities. This paper analyzes the urbanization process when local governments are weak and large developers arepowerful. Results from a non-cooperative game setting with minimal assumptions show that multiple equilibria can emergedepending on key institutional parameters of the model and the nature of the game, but all of them are inefficient. Inthis simple setting, increasing the capacity of the local government may not lead to better outcomes, because it maycrowd out urban land development by the more effective private investor. Subsidizing the large investor can ensureefficiency, but it makes the rest of society worse off. Selling the rights to the city can be Pareto efficient, butonly provided that the price at which the rights are sold are sufficiently high. However, more analytical andempirical work is needed before these analyses can be deemed relevant in practice. Competition among jurisdictions, timeconsistency challenges, and the social implications of private cities deserve special attention.
    Keywords: Regional Urban Development,National Urban Development Policies & Strategies,Urban Communities,City to City Alliances,Urban Economic Development,Urban Economics,Private Sector Economics,Legal Products,Regulatory Regimes,Legislation,Legal Reform,Judicial System Reform,Social Policy,Common Property Resource Development,Transport Services
    Date: 2022–02–10
  7. By: Cosar,Kerem,Demir,Banu,Ghose,Devaki,Young,Nathaniel Virgil C
    Abstract: What is the impact on intranational trade and regional economic outcomes when the quality and lane capacity of an existing paved road network is expanded significantly? This paper investigates this question for the case of Turkey, which undertook a large-scale public investment in roads during the 2000s. Using spatially disaggregated data on road upgrades and domestic transactions, the paper estimates a large positive impact of reduced travel times on trade as well as local manufacturing employment and wages. A quantitative exercise using a workhorse model of spatial equilibrium implies heterogeneous effects across locations, with aggregate real income gains reaching 2–3 percent in the long run. Reductions in travel times increased the local employment-to-population ratio but had no effect on local population. The model is extended by endogenizing the labor supply decision to capture this finding. The model-implied elasticity of employment rates to travel time reductions captures about one-third of the empirical elasticity.
    Keywords: International Trade and Trade Rules,Transport Services,Labor Markets,Roads&Highways,Inter-Urban Roads and Passenger Transport,Roads and Highways Performance
    Date: 2021–09–13
  8. By: Alder,Simon; Croke,Kevin; Duhaut,Alice; Marty,Robert Andrew; Vaisey,Ariana Brynn
    Abstract: This paper studies the impacts of the large-scale Road Sector Development Program in Ethiopiabetween 1997 and 2016 on local economic activity and land cover (urbanization and cropland). It exploits spatial andtemporal variation in road upgrades across Ethiopia, together with high-resolution panel data derived fromsatellite imagery. The findings show that road upgrades contributed to increases in local economic activity, asproxied by nighttime lights and urban land area. However, there is significant heterogeneity in the results acrossbaseline levels of economic activity. Specifically, gains from road upgrades are concentrated in areas withmoderate-to-high initial levels of economic activity. By contrast, there was little, or even negative, growth inareas with low levels of initial economic activity. Finally, the findings show that road upgrades contributed to areduction in cropland in areas with medium-to-high baseline nighttime lights. The results suggest that Ethiopia'sambitious road infrastructure development program overall increased local economic activity and urbanization, but thatit also had important distributional implications that need to be taken into account when planning such infrastructure programs.
    Date: 2022–04–06
  9. By: Behrer,Arnold Patrick; Bolotnyy,Valentin
    Abstract: Using administrative criminal records from Texas, this paper shows how heat affects criminaldefendants, police officers, prosecutors, and judges. It finds that arrests increase by up to 15 percent on hot days,driven by increases in violent crime. There is no evidence that charging-day heat impacts prosecutorial decisions.However, working alone, judges dismiss fewer cases, issue longer prison sentences, and levy higher fines when rulingon hot days. Higher incomes, newer housing, more teamwork, and less accessible weapons may decrease these adverseeffects of heat. Even with adaptation, the paper forecasts that climate change will increase crime and have substantialdistributional consequences.
    Keywords: Crime and Society,Adaptation to Climate Change,Climate Change and Health,Science of Climate Change,Climate Change and Environment,Urban Housing,Urban Governance and Management,Municipal Management and Reform,Urban Housing and Land Settlements
    Date: 2022–01–24
  10. By: Barzin,Samira; Avner,Paolo; Maruyama Rentschler,Jun Erik; O’Clery,Neave
    Abstract: Globally, both people and economic activity are increasingly concentrated in urban areas. Yet,for the vast majority of developing country cities, little is known about the granular spatial organization of such activity despite its key importance to policy and urbanplanning. This paper adapts a machine learning based algorithm to predict the spatial distribution of employmentusing input data from open access sources such as Open Street Map and Google Earth Engine. The algorithm is trainedon 14 test cities, ranging from Buenos Aires in Argentina to Dakar in Senegal. A spatial adaptation of the random forestalgorithm is used to predict within-city cells in the 14 test cities with extremely high accuracy (R- squared greaterthan 95 percent), and cells in out-of-sample ”unseen” cities with high accuracy (mean R-squared of 63 percent). Thisapproach uses open data to produce high resolution estimates of the distribution of urban employment for cities wheresuch information does not exist, making evidence-based planning more accessible than ever before.
    Date: 2022–03–22
  11. By: Kulshreshtha, Shobhit (Tilburg University); Salm, Martin (Tilburg University); Wübker, Ansgar (RWI)
    Abstract: Large regional disparities in health and healthcare costs prevail in many countries, but our understanding of the underlying causes is still limited. This study shows for the case of the Netherlands that population sorting through internal migration can explain a substantial share, around 28%, of regional variation in healthcare costs. Internal migration during the 1998-2018 period increases average healthcare costs in peripheral provinces by up to 3%. Most of this effect can be attributed to selective migration. We find similar results for risk scores, a measure of healthcare needs. The Dutch risk equalization scheme compensates only partially for these effects.
    Keywords: regional variation in healthcare costs, internal migration, movers approach, regional disparities
    JEL: H51 I14 R23
    Date: 2022–09
  12. By: Howard, Greg (University of Illinois); Weinstein, Russell (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)
    Abstract: Regional public universities educate approximately 70 percent of college students at four-year public universities and an even larger share of students from disadvantaged backgrounds. They aim to provide opportunity for education and social mobility, in part by locating near potential students. In this paper, we use the historical assignment of normal schools and insane asylums (normal schools grew into regional universities while asylums remain small) and data from Opportunity Insights to identify the effects of regional universities on the social mobility of nearby children. Children in counties given a normal school get more education and have better economic and social outcomes, especially lower-income children. For several key outcomes, we show this effect is a causal effect on children, and not only selection on which children live near universities.
    Keywords: economic mobility, regional universities, college attendance
    JEL: J62 I23 I26 R53
    Date: 2022–10
  13. By: Batana,Yele Maweki; Jarotschkin,Alexandra; Konou,Akakpo Domefa; Masaki,Takaaki; Nakamura,Shohei; Viboudoulou Vilpoux,Mervy Ever
    Abstract: This paper examines living conditions—mainly access to infrastructure and basicservices—in Kinshasa, by focusing on how they vary within the city and how they are related to householdcharacteristics. First, drawing on a household survey conducted in the capital province in 2018, the paper showsthat many Kinshasa residents live with substandard housing and inadequate levels of access to infrastructure and basicservices. Second, the level and quality of access to basic services are highly correlated with residents’ consumptionand education levels, as well as their neighborhood characteristics. Third, despite the presence of negativeexternalities from the high population density, poor households benefit from living in dense neighborhoods bygaining a minimum level of access. The paper argues that it is imperative to increase the supply of affordable housingto lessen the inequality of access to services in Kinshasa.
    Keywords: Hydrology,Urban Housing and Land Settlements,Urban Governance and Management,Municipal Management and Reform,Urban Housing,Health and Sanitation,Small Private Water Supply Providers,Sanitary Environmental Engineering,Environmental Engineering,Sanitation and Sewerage,Engineering,Water Supply and Sanitation Economics,Water and Human Health,Town Water Supply and Sanitation,Educational Sciences,Natural Disasters
    Date: 2021–11–19
  14. By: Erman,Alvina Elisabeth; Solis Uehara,Carla Cristina; Beaudet,Chloé
    Abstract: Due to recent decentralization reforms, municipalities now have important responsibilitiesin the sustainable urban development of Mozambique. Thispaper assesses the efficiency of World Bank funded municipal performance grants and technical assistance provided tomunicipalities, to enable municipalities to increase revenue collection. The municipal performance grants transferredresources to municipalities directed by performance-based indicators. The technical assistance program providedclassroom and on-the-job training for municipal staff. The effect of a municipal performance grant on revenuecollection is found to be positive and the effect is primarily lagged. Receiving a municipal performance grant inyears t−1 and t−2 is associated with an increase in revenue collection in year t. Contemporary effects are negative butnot significant. However, the positive impact of a lagged municipal performance grant on revenue collection is onlysignificant after 2015, which coincides with implementation of technical assistance. And when municipal performancegrants are combined with technical assistance, the contemporary effect of the transfer is also positive andsignificant. Overall, the impact of the municipal performance grants is larger for towns than cities. Forevery 10 meticais per capita received in municipal performance grants when combined with technical assistance,revenue collection increases by 10–11 meticais per capita in cities and 24 and 60 meticais per capita in towns. Thefindings of this study suggest that performance-based grants incentivize local governments with low capacity to collectmore revenue. However, the transfers should be accompanied by a technical assistance program that can support capacitybuilding in financial and fiscal management, as well as urban development and investment planning.
    Keywords: Public Sector Economics,Economic Adjustment and Lending,Public Finance Decentralization and Poverty Reduction,Urban Governance and Management,Macro-Fiscal Policy,Municipal Management and Reform,Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations and Local Finance Management,Public & Municipal Finance,Financial Sector Policy,Taxation & Subsidies,Regional Urban Development,National Urban Development Policies & Strategies,Urban Economic Development,Urban Communities,Urban Economics,City to City Alliances,Disaster Management,Social Risk Management,Hazard Risk Management
    Date: 2021–10–01
  15. By: Di Maro,Vincenzo; Leeffers,Stefan; Serra,Danila; Vicente,Pedro C.
    Abstract: How should parents be mobilized for education in Africa This study implemented a large-scalefield experiment in Angolan primary schools, including three treatments: an information campaign at home, simple parents’meetings at school, and the combination of both. The measures of parental mobilization include beneficialpractices at home, contacts with teachers, and participation in school institutions. The findings show that theinformation increased parents’ involvement at home but had no impact on engagement at school, while the meetings hadthe opposite effects. After mobilizing parents, only the combined treatment improved management practices andfacilities in schools, teachers’ attitudes, and parents’ satisfaction.
    Keywords: Educational Sciences,Educational Institutions & Facilities,Effective Schools and Teachers
    Date: 2021–12–08
  16. By: Batana,Yele Maweki,Nakamura,Shohei,Rajashekar,Anirudh Venkatanarayan,Viboudoulou Vilpoux,Mervy Ever,Wieser,Christina
    Abstract: This paper examines spatial heterogeneity in the impacts of the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic on urban household incomes in Ethiopia and Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo. Combining new panel household surveys with spatial data, the fixed-effects regression analysis for Ethiopia finds that households in large and densely populated towns were more likely to lose their labor incomes in the early phase of the pandemic, and their recovery was slower than other households. Disadvantaged groups, such as female, low-skilled, self-employed, and poor, particularly suffered in those towns. In Kinshasa, labor income-mobility elasticities are higher among workers—particularly female and/or low-skilled workers—who live in areas that are located farther from the city core area or highly dense and precarious neighborhoods. The between- and within-city evidence from two Sub-Saharan African countries points to the spatial heterogeneity of COVID-19 impacts, implying the critical role of mobility and accessibility in urban agglomerations.
    Keywords: Labor Markets,Employment and Unemployment,Transport Services
    Date: 2021–08–30
  17. By: Avner,Paolo; Viguié,Vincent; Jafino,Bramka Arga; Hallegatte,Stephane
    Abstract: This paper investigates the land value creation potential from flood mitigation investmentsin a theoretical and applied setting, using the urban area of Buenos Aires as a case study. It contributes to theliterature on the wider economic benefits of government interventions and the dividends of resilience investments.Using a simple urban economics framework that represents land and housing markets, it finds that not all floodmitigation interventions display the same potential for land value creation: where land ismore valuable (city centers for example), the benefits of resilience are higher. Thepaper also provides ranges for land value creation potential from the flood mitigation works in Buenos Aires undervarious model specifications. Although the estimates vary largely depending on model parameters and specifications, inmany cases the land value creation would be sufficient to justify the investments. This result is robust even in theclosed city configuration with conservative flood damage estimates, providing that the parameters remain reasonablyclose to the values obtained from the calibration. Finally, acknowledging that fully calibrating and running an urbansimulation model is data greedy and time intensive—even a simple model as proposed here—this research also proposesreduced form expressions that can provide approximations for land value creation from flood mitigation investments andcan be used in operational contexts.
    Keywords: Natural Disasters,Urban Housing and Land Settlements,Urban Governance and Management,Municipal Management and Reform,Urban Housing,Social Risk Management,Hazard Risk Management,Disaster Management,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Transport Services
    Date: 2021–07–01
  18. By: Ciarán Murphy (Name:Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, Maynooth University.)
    Abstract: Using the rich Growing Up in Ireland dataset, the effect of school diversity on academic performance is examined in the context of Irish secondary schools. Previous studies on the subject in Europe and the USA have had mixed findings. Initial estimates using OLS find a significant negative effect of immigrant concentration on academic performance, even when controlling for prior ability and various school- and individual-level factors. An instrumental variables approach is used to eliminate an anticipated negative selection bias, but the estimated negative effects using this method are stronger, albeit imprecise.
    Date: 2022
  19. By: Mogens Fosgerau; Miroslawa Lukawska; Mads Paulsen; Thomas Kj{\ae}r Rasmussen
    Abstract: How much is the volume of urban bicycle traffic affected by the provision of bicycle infrastructure? We exploit a large dataset of observed bicycle trajectories in combination with a fine-grained representation of the Copenhagen bicycle-relevant network. We apply a novel model for the bicyclist choice of route from origin to destination that takes the complete network into account. This enables us to back out the bicyclist preferences for a range of infrastructure and land-use types. We use the estimated preferences to compute a subjective cost of bicycle travel, which we correlate with the number of bicycle trips across a large number of origin-destination pairs. Simulations suggest that the extensive Copenhagen bicycle lane network has increased the number of bicycle trips by 40 percent and the volume of bicycle km by 60 percent, compared to a counterfactual without the bicycle lane network. This translates into an annual benefit worth 0.4 M EUR per km of bicycle lane due to changes in subjective travel cost, health, and accidents. Our results thus strongly support the provision of bicycle infrastructure.
    Date: 2022–10
  20. By: Batana,Yele Maweki; Jarotschkin,Alexandra; Konou,Akakpo Domefa; Masaki,Takaaki; Nakamura,Shohei; Viboudoulou Vilpoux,Mervy Ever
    Abstract: This paper examines the labor market and jobs in urban Kinshasa, by drawing on a recentlycollected household survey and other data sets. It particularly focuses on labor supply and employmentpatterns, job characteristics, and their spatial nexus. The analysis first shows that female and young workers are morelikely to experience unemployment and underemployment than other workers in Kinshasa. Second, the availability of goodquality jobs is still limited in Kinshasa. Third, in addition to the scarcity of good jobs, which areconcentrated in the city core, poor accessibility due to the limited connective infrastructure and transport systemfurther reduces job opportunities for people living in the outskirts.
    Keywords: Labor Markets,Educational Sciences,Employment and Unemployment,Transport Services
    Date: 2021–11–19
  21. By: Beam, Emily A. (University of Vermont); Mukherjee, Priya (University of Wisconsin-Madison); Navarro-Sola, Laia (IIES, Stockholm University)
    Abstract: We conduct a randomized controlled trial with households of secondary school students in Bangladesh to investigate how parents adjust their investments in response to three educational interventions: an informational campaign about an educational phone application, an internet data subsidy, and one-on-one phone learning support. We find that offering an educational service in a context where other barriers to take-up exist can still trigger parental educational investments by acting as a signal or nudge. These behavioral changes result in lasting learning gains concentrated among richer households, reflecting that the relevant behavior change—increased tutoring investment—is easier for them to implement. In contrast, when interventions do increase take-up, they have the potential to narrow the socioeconomic achievement gap. We observe that increased usage of the targeted educational service limits parental behavioral responses. This implies that learning gains in these cases are directly caused by the potential effectiveness of the services adopted. In our setting, remote one-to-one teacher support improves learning among students from poorer households, whereas receiving the free data package jointly with the app information has no impact on learning.
    Keywords: human capital, parental investments, educational technology, educational inequality
    JEL: C93 I21 I24 J13 O15
    Date: 2022–09
  22. By: Brittany Andrew-Amofah; Alexandra Flynn; Patricia Wood (University of Toronto)
    Abstract: There is a crisis of growing inequality in Canadian cities. As COVID-19 spread through Canadian cities beginning in spring 2020, racial inequities became apparent, including biased enforcement of bylaws and higher coronavirus rates amongst racialized and vulnerable communities. These health care injustices exposed municipal decisions that have led to negative outcomes for marginalized groups, especially in policing, community safety, housing, homelessness, and bylaw enforcement. In response, cities have been called upon – again – to change their governance models to allow for greater participation and better include the voices and lived realities of racialized and marginalized people in decision-making processes. In a post-pandemic period of city building, where socio-economic and racial inequalities have been exposed, municipalities must incorporate social equity and explicit race-based lenses in their decision-making and reimagine their governance practices. This paper sets out the ways in which municipal governance frameworks have worked to exacerbate inequality, with suggestions on how cities can design more democratic and responsible models. These include greater engagement with equity-deserving communities and community bodies, modifications to existing governance models, and legislative changes.
    Keywords: municipal governance, inequality, justice, inclusion, public consultation, local democracy, public participation, citizen engagement
    JEL: D63 D73 Z18
    Date: 2022–10
  23. By: Tabuchi, Takatoshi
    Abstract: This paper is an attempt to combine a labor supply model with a housing location model. We focus on the trade-off between the hours of work, commute times and leisure time as well as the trade-off between the consumption of a good, housing space, and leisure time. We show that both labor supply and urban location choice are inverted U-shaped in relation to the wage rate. These results are empirically shown by using Japanese data on the hours of work and commute times by household income class and on the number of households by income class.
    Keywords: labor supply; leisure time; residential location; U-shaped relationship
    JEL: J22 R21 R31
    Date: 2022–09–29
  24. By: Dennis Epple (Carnegie Mellon University); Francisco Martinez-Mora (University of Leicester); Richard Romano (University of Florida)
    Abstract: We provide a model to analyze charter school educational practices. Students differ in cognitive ability, motivation, and household income. Student achievement depends on ability, match of their school's curriculum to their ability, and effort. Charter schools choose curriculum to maximize achievement gains, optimally setting curriculum to attract lower ability students. Achievement gains are modest, consistent with empirical evidence. We also investigate "no excuses" charter schools. These charters enforce an effort minimum that attracts highly motivated students. We find, consistent with the evidence, that these charters are highly effective in increasing achievement, with the largest gains accruing to lower ability students.
    Keywords: education, cognitive ability, non-cognitive skills, household finance
    JEL: H75 J24 D19
  25. By: Filmer,Deon P.; Nahata,Vatsal; Sabarwal,Shwetlena
    Abstract: This paper uses machine learning methods to identify key predictors of teacher effectiveness,proxied by student learning gains linked to a teacher over an academic year. Conditional inference forests and theleast absolute shrinkage and selection operator are applied to matched student-teacher data for math and Kiswahili fromgrades 2 and 3 in 392 schools across Tanzania. These two machine learning methods produce consistent results andoutperform standard ordinary least squares in out-of-sample prediction by 14–24 percent. As in previous research,commonly used teacher covariates like teacher gender, education, experience, and so forth are not good predictorsof teacher effectiveness. Instead, teacher practice (what teachers do, measured through classroom observations andstudent surveys) and teacher beliefs (measured through teacher surveys) emerge as much more important. Overall,teacher covariates are stronger predictors of teacher effectiveness in math than in Kiswahili. Teacher beliefsthat they can help disadvantaged and struggling studentslearn (for math) and they have good relationships within schools (for Kiswahili), teacher practice of providingwritten feedback and reviewing key concepts at the end of class (for math), and spending extra time with strugglingstudents (for Kiswahili) are highly predictive of teacher effectiveness. As is teacher preparation on how to teachfoundational topics (for both Math and Kiswahili). These results demonstrate the need to pay more systematicattention to teacher preparation, practice, and beliefs in teacher research and policy.
    Date: 2021–11–15
  26. By: A. Arda Gitmez; Rom\'an Andr\'es Z\'arate
    Abstract: Can proximity make friendships more diverse? To address this question, we propose a learning-driven friendship formation model to study how proximity and similarity influence the likelihood of forming social connections. The model predicts that proximity affects more friendships between dissimilar than similar individuals, in opposition to a preference-driven version of the model. We use an experiment at selective boarding schools in Peru that generates random variation in the physical proximity between students to test these predictions. The empirical evidence is consistent with the learning model: while social networks exhibit homophily by academic achievement and poverty, proximity generates more diverse social connections.
    Date: 2022–10
  27. By: Behr,Daniela Monika; Chen,Lixue; Goel,Ankita; Haider,Khondoker Tanveer; Singh,Sandeep - CSEFI; Zaman,Asad
    Abstract: This paper introduces a micro-founded methodological framework to estimate the housing deficitacross and within emerging economies. It introduces the Adequate Housing Index, which provides a comparableassessment of adequate housing based on seven adequacy dimensions that are held constant across all countries. Theadequacy dimensions were obtained and harmonized from countries’ most recent household expenditure and consumptionsurveys. The paper documents large differences in housing adequacy across a sample of 64 emerging economies, as wellas wide within-country disparities such as across income groups, locations, and occupations. Estimates of theAdequate Housing Index show that across the sample of 64 emerging economies, there is a current housing deficit of268 million housing units affecting 1.26 billion people. About 26 percent of the current housing stock in theseeconomies is inadequate. The paper further estimates that at least 40 million additional housing units will have to beadded by 2030 to provide adequate housing to all and accommodate the growing population and urbanization patterns.
    Keywords: Urban Housing and Land Settlements,Urban Governance and Management,Municipal Management and Reform,Urban Housing,Hydrology,Health Care Services Industry,Sanitary Environmental Engineering,Environmental Engineering,Health and Sanitation,Small Private Water Supply Providers,Engineering,Water Supply and Sanitation Economics,Water and Human Health,Town Water Supply and Sanitation,Sanitation and Sewerage,Energy Policies & Economics
    Date: 2021–11–01
  28. By: Chen,Liming; Hasan,Rana; Jiang,Yi
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between urban agglomeration and firm innovation using a recently developed dataset that consistently measures city boundaries across Asia together with geo-referenced firm-level data. It finds that the spatial distribution of innovation by firms is highly concentrated within countries. Further, firms in larger cities have substantially higher propensities to introduce product and process innovations and undertake R&D activities, a result that holds for subgroups of countries and even when the largest cities are excluded from the analysis. Finally, the presence of high quality universities and highly ranked engineering departments in cities is positively associated with firm innovation, lending support to the idea that the accumulation of human capital locally is a key channel through which urban agglomeration affects innovation.
    Keywords: Innovation,Urban Governance and Management,Municipal Management and Reform,Common Carriers Industry,Food & Beverage Industry,General Manufacturing,Textiles, Apparel & Leather Industry,Pulp & Paper Industry,Construction Industry,Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies,Plastics & Rubber Industry,Skills Development and Labor Force Training,Railways Transport
    Date: 2021–11–24
  29. By: Roman Sustek
    Abstract: A simple practical method for quantitative analysis of house prices is proposed. Similar to consumer theory, housing demand is decomposed into changes in income and a relative price. The latter includes implicit costs of mortgage finance, determined by monetary policy and future disposable income growth and inflation expectations. The method is applied to the 63% increase in real house prices in Czechia, 2013-2021. The income effect accounts for 32% of the increase, implicit mortgage costs for another 20%. Most of the latter hinges on income growth expectations, reflecting the robust 2013-2020 economic recovery. Going forward, the paper explores hypothetical scenarios in light of the recent increase in mortgage rates to 5.33%. As an example, at long-term inflation expectations of 6%, a dire scenario of zero expected future growth in real disposable income leads to a decline in real house prices of 13%. However, if real income growth expectations remained unchanged from the boom period of 2013-2020, the increase in mortgage rates, at inflation expectations of 6%, would lead to only a modest drop in house prices. Across the various scenarios, the risks for house prices are nonetheless skewed downwards.
    Keywords: House prices; decomposition; affordability; mortgage costs; monetary policy;
    JEL: E52 G21 G59 R21
    Date: 2022–10
  30. By: Amirhesam Badeanlou; Andrea Araldo; Marco Diana; Vincent Gauthier
    Abstract: Current transit suffers from an evident inequity: the level of service of transit in suburbs is much less satisfying than in city centers. As a consequence, private cars are still the dominant transportation mode for suburban people, which results in congestion and pollution. To achieve sustainability goals and reduce car-dependency, transit should be (re)designed around equity. To this aim, it is necessary to (i) quantify the "level of equity" of the transit system and (ii) provide an indicator that scores the transit lines that contribute the most to keep transit equitable. This indicator could suggest on which lines the transit operator must invest to increase the service level (frequency or coverage) in order to reduce inequity in the system. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to tackle (ii). To this aim, we propose efficient scoring methods that rely solely on open data, which allows us to perform the analysis on multiple cities (7 in this paper). Our method can be used to guide large-scale iterative optimization algorithms to improve accessibility equity.
    Date: 2022–09
  31. By: Elsayed,Mahmoud Abduh Ali; Clerkin,Aidan; Pitsia,Vasiliki; Aljabri,Nayyaf; Al-Harbi,Khaleel
    Abstract: This paper examines the factors that are associated with boys’ underachievement in mathematicsand science in Saudi Arabia, where students attend gender-segregated schools from grade 1 onward, as well asstudent achievement in these two subjects in grades 4 and 8 more generally. The paper employs data from two recentlarge-scale assessments of education: Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study 2019 and SaudiArabia’s National Assessment of Learning Outcomes 2018. The results suggest that in grade 4, school climate was morestrongly associated with boys' compared with girls' achievement in both mathematics and science,with boys attending schools of poorer school climate having a considerably lower performance compared with girlsattending such schools. The findings also indicate that although greater literacy and numeracy readiness was linkedwith higher science achievement among boys and girls, grade 4 boys tended to benefit more from this readiness thangirls. In addition, the results show that student absenteeism in grade 4 is particularly strongly associatedwith decreases in mathematics achievement among boys. In grade 8, interactions between student gender and students’confidence in science, the degree of schools’ emphasis on academic success, and teachers’ age are observed. The paperconcludes by discussing some of the implications of these findings for educators and policy makers in Saudi Arabia.
    Keywords: Educational Sciences,Gender and Development,Educational Institutions & Facilities,Effective Schools and Teachers,Inequality
    Date: 2022–01–10
  32. By: Badi H. Baltagi (Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University, 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244); Ying Deng (School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, No. 10 Huixin East Street, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100029, China); Jing Li (School of Economics, Singapore Management University, 90 Stamford Road, Singapore 178903); Zhenlin Yang (School of Economics, Singapore Management University, 90 Stamford Road, Singapore 178903)
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of urban density, city government efficiency, and medical resources on COVID-19 infection and death outcomes in China. We adopt a simultaneous spatial dynamic panel data model to account for (i) the simultaneity of infection and death outcomes, (ii) the spatial pattern of the transmission, (iii) the inter-temporal dynamics of the disease, and (iv) the unobserved city- and time-specific effects. We find that, while population density increases the level of infections, government efficiency significantly mitigates the negative impact of urban density. We also find that the availability of medical resources improves public health outcomes conditional on lagged infections. Moreover, there exists significant heterogeneity at different phases of the epidemiological cycle.
    Keywords: COVID-19, Urban Density, Government Efficiency Cities
    JEL: R1 R5 I18
    Date: 2022–10
  33. By: Andrew Seltzer; Jonathan Wadsworth
    Abstract: This paper examines the consequences of the commuter transport revolution on working-class labour markets in London, circa 1930. Using GIS-based data constructed from the New Survey of London Life and Labour, we examine the extent of commuting and estimate the earnings returns to commuting. We show that commuting was an important feature for most working-class Londoners in the early-twentieth century. Using a variety of identifying procedures to address the endogeneity of distance commuted, we estimate a likely causal return of between 1.5 to 3.5 percent of earnings for each additional kilometre travelled. We also show that commuting was an important contributor to improvements in quality of life in the early-twentieth century.
    Keywords: commuting, public transport, earnings, London
    Date: 2022–09–05
  34. By: Ibáñez,Ana María; Rozo Villarraga,Sandra Viviana; Bahar,Dany
    Abstract: This paper studies whether undocumented immigrants change their crime-reportingbehavior after receiving a regular migratory status. It exploits a natural experiment of a massive amnesty programthat gave a regular migratory status to over 281,000 undocumented Venezuelan immigrants in Colombia. The findingssuggest that following the amnesty there is an increase in reporting of crimes by Venezuelan immigrants, not explainedby an increase in crime overall. The results are particularly strong for reports of domestic violence and sexcrimes. Results are almost entirely driven by reports by female Venezuelan immigrants, a vulnerable population,suggesting that empowerment is an important mechanism driving the behavior change.
    Keywords: Crime and Society,Social Cohesion,International Migration,Migration and Development,Human Migrations & Resettlements,Gender and Development
    Date: 2021–11–03
  35. By: Mette Foged; Linea Hasager; Giovanni Peri
    Abstract: This paper estimates, within a common framework, the effects of four types of integration polices on the employment probability and earnings of refugees in Denmark during the last three decades. We first review the studies that use a credible identification strategy to evaluate the causal effects of these types of policies on the assimilation of refugees in developed countries. We then describe the dynamics of labor market outcomes of several cohorts of refugees in Denmark. To our knowledge, Denmark is the only country where the number and design of policy changes and the longitudinal individual data availability make such an analysis possible. Our analysis suggests that improved language training, combined with initial placement of refugees in strong labor markets, significantly improved their long-run labor market outcomes. On the contrary, cutting initial welfare payments and housing them near other refugees does not seem to improve their long-run outcomes. Active labor market policies focused on matching refugees with simple jobs in high demand occupations may have positive short-run effects, but we cannot yet assess their long-run effects.
    JEL: J15 J61 J62
    Date: 2022–10
  36. By: Ali,Daniel Ayalew; Deininger,Klaus W.
    Abstract: Since 2010, Lesotho has implemented legal and institutional changes to allow female land ownership, established a new land agency, reduced the cost of registering land, and carried out systematic urban land titling. Analysis using administrative data shows that these reforms triggered discontinuous and sustained changes in quality of service delivery, female land ownership, and registered land sales and mortgage volume. Land and credit market activation is, however, exclusively due to policy reforms. While (subsidized) systematic land registration allows women to access documented land rights, these effects may not be sustained without further regulatory change, highlighting the importance of reducing fees and streamlining processes to improve urban land and financial market functioning as a key precondition for Africa’s expected wave of urbanization translating into productive cities and jobs.
    Keywords: Gender and Development,Capital Flows,Capital Markets and Capital Flows,Non Bank Financial Institutions,Housing Finance,Agricultural Economics,Gender and Economics,Gender and Poverty,Gender and Economic Policy,Economics and Gender
    Date: 2021–06–01
  37. By: Omar Arias; Pedro Carneiro; Angela Duckworth; Lauren Eskreis-Winkler; Christian Krekel; Ana Maria Munoz Boudet; Violeta Petroska-Beska; Indhira Santos
    Abstract: We study whether a particular socio-emotional skill - grit (the ability to sustain effort and interest towards long-term goals) - can be cultivated through a large-scale program, and how this affects student learning. Using a randomized control trial, we evaluate the first nationwide implementation of a low-cost intervention designed to foster grit and self-regulation among sixth and seventh-grade students in primary schools in North Macedonia (about 33,000 students across 350 schools). The results of this interventions are mixed. Exposed students report improvements in self-regulation, in particular the perseverance-of-effort facet of grit, relative to students in a control condition. Impacts on students are larger when both students and teachers are exposed to the curriculum than when only students are treated. For disadvantaged students, we also find positive impacts on grade point averages, with gains of up to 28 percent of a standard deviation one-year post-treatment. However, while this intervention made students more perseverant and industrious, it reduced the consistency-of-interest facet of grit. This means that exposed students are less able to maintain consistent interests for long periods.
    Keywords: socio-emotional skills, grit, GPAs, middle-school students, field experiment, RCT
    Date: 2022–10–17
  38. By: Xu,Gang; Xu,L. Colin; Si,Ruichao
    Abstract: Tournament competition is viewed as motivating bureaucrats in promoting growth. This paperexamines how this incentive leads to economic performance manipulation. Using data from Chinese cities, the analysisshows that performance exaggeration increases over the course of the first term of the top bureaucrat, peaking inthe last year of his or her term. Winning a tournament competition is behind this performance manipulation:political rivals reinforce each other in exaggerating performance, and political competition intensifies thetendency for manipulation. Performance exaggeration leads to higher chances of promotion, but the ratchet effect (thatis, better performance today leading to a higher target tomorrow) and the potential to blame predecessors inducerestraint. A good local institutional environment also restrains performance manipulation.
    Keywords: Labor Markets,Economic Growth,Industrial Economics,Economic Theory & Research,Regional Economic Development,Economic Development,Spatial and Local Economic Development,Subnational Economic Development,Gender and Development,Energy Policies & Economics
    Date: 2022–02–15
  39. By: Timm, Lisa Marie (University of Amsterdam); Giuliodori, Massimo (University of Amsterdam); Muller, Paul (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
    Abstract: This paper examines to what extent an income tax exemption affects international mobility and wages of skilled immigrants. We study a preferential tax scheme for foreigners in the Netherlands, which introduced an income threshold for eligibility in 2012 and covers a large share of the migrant income distribution. By using detailed administrative data in a difference-in-differences setup, we find that the number of migrants in the income range closely above the threshold more than doubles, whereas there is little empirical support for a decrease of migration below the threshold. Our results indicate that these effects are driven mainly by additional migration, while wage bargaining responses are fairly limited. We conclude that the preferential tax scheme is highly effective in attracting more skilled migrants.
    Keywords: international migration, income tax benefits, wage bargaining, bunching
    JEL: F22 J61 H24 H31
    Date: 2022–09
  40. By: Echeverría, Lucía (University of Zaragoza); Gimenez-Nadal, J. Ignacio (University of Zaragoza); Molina, José Alberto (University of Zaragoza)
    Abstract: Research has shown that commuting is related to the health of workers, and that mode choice may have differential effects on this relationship. We analyze the relationship between commuting by different modes of transport and the health status reported by US workers, using the 2014-2016 Eating and Health (EH) Module of the American Time Use Survey (ATUS). We estimate Ordinary Least Squares models on a measure of subjective health, that is the self-reported assessment of individual general health status, and on the body mass index. We find that longer commutes by bicycle are significantly related to higher levels of subjective health and to lower body mass index, while commuting by walking is weakly related to both health measures. We test the robustness of our results to possible measurement errors in commuting times, to the exclusion of compensating factors, and to the estimation method. We additionally instrument individual use of bicycles with an indicator of individual green attitudes, based on the General Social Survey (GSS), and the results consistently show that individuals who commute longer by bicycle report better subjective health and lower body mass index. Our results may help policy makers in evaluating the importance of having infrastructures that facilitate the use of bicycles as a means of transport, boosting investment in these infrastructures, especially in large cities.
    Keywords: commuting, health, walking, cycling, American Time Use Survey
    JEL: R40 I10 J22
    Date: 2022–09
  41. By: González Amador, Michelle (Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, RS: GSBE MGSoG); Cowan, Robin (RS: GSBE Theme Creativity, Innovation & Entrepreneurship , Mt Economic Research Inst on Innov/Techn); Nillesen, Eleonora (Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, RS: GSBE MGSoG, RS: GSBE UM-BIC)
    Abstract: Continuing education beyond the compulsory years of schooling is one of the most important choices an adolescent has to make; higher education is associated with a host of social and economic benefits both for the person and its community. Today, there is ample evidence that educational aspirations are an important determinant of said choice. We implement a multilevel, networked experiment in 45 Mexican high schools, and provide evidence of the malleability of educational aspirations, and the interdependence of students' choices and the effect of our intervention with peer networks. Moreover, we find that a video- intervention, which combines role-models and information about returns to education, is successful in updating students' beliefs and consequently educational aspirations.
    JEL: A21 C21 C22 C93 D83 D91 I29
    Date: 2022–09–19
  42. By: Mehrgol Tiv; Cody Spence
    Abstract: We examined whether contextual exposure to ethnoracial diversity relates to mental associations in other social domains. County-level metrics of racial diversity and segregation computed from restricted-use U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey data were linked to a geolocated measure of sexual orientation implicit bias from over 825,000 respondents across the United States (2015-2021). Multilevel models detected a negative relationship between context racial diversity and stereotypic implicit associations to sexual orientation, with the greatest transfer observed at high segregation. Given the non-representative nature of the sample, we computed survey weights to account for state and national demographic distributions. Weighted models revealed a robust association with context racial diversity but did not detect an interaction with segregation. These results support the hypothesis that exposure to social diversity in one domain can generalize to less stereotypic mental associations in another, and they bolster the need for socially contextualized research on human cognition.
    Keywords: context diversity; implicit bias; Census Bureau; secondary transfer; race
    Date: 2022–09
  43. By: Iimi,Atsushi
    Abstract: Informal public transport has been growing rapidly in many developing countries. Because urbaninfrastructure development tends to lag rapid population growth, informal public transport often meets the growinggap between demand and supply in urban mobility. Despite the rich literature primarily focused on formal transport modes,the informal transport sector is relatively unknown. This paper analyzes the demand behavior in the “informal” minibussector in Antananarivo, Madagascar, taking advantage of a recent user survey of thousands of people. It finds that thedemand for informal public transport is generally inelastic. Essentially, people have no other choice. While the timeelasticity is estimated at −0.02 to −0.05, the price elasticity is −0.05 to −0.06 for short-distance travelers,who may have alternative choices, such as motorcycle taxi or walking. Unlike formal public transportation, the demandalso increases with income. Regardless of income level, everyone uses minibuses. The estimated demand functionsindicate that people prefer safety and more flexibility in transit. The paper shows that combining these improvementsand fare adjustments, the informal transport sector can contribute to increasing people’s mobility and reducingtraffic congestion in the city.
    Date: 2022–04–18
  44. By: Santos,Indhira Vanessa; Petroska-Beska,Violeta; Amaro Da Costa Luz Carneiro,Pedro Manuel; Eskreis-Winkler,Lauren; Munoz Boudet,Ana Maria; Berniell,Ines; Krekel,Christian; Arias,Omar; Duckworth,Angela Lee
    Abstract: This paper studies whether a particular socio-emotional skill —grit (the ability tosustain effort and interest toward long-term goals)—can be cultivated and how this affects student learning. The paperimplements, as a randomized controlled trial, a nationwide low-cost intervention designed to foster grit andself-regulation among sixth and seventh grade students in primary schools in North Macedonia (about 33,000 studentsacross 350 schools). Students exposed to the intervention report improvements in self-regulation, in particular theperseverance-of-effort facet of grit, relative to students in a control condition. The impacts on students are largerwhen both students and teachers are exposed to the curriculum than when only students are treated. Amongdisadvantaged students, the study also finds positive impacts on grade point averages, with gains of up to 28percent of a standard deviation one year post-treatment. However, the findings also point toward a potentialdownside: although the intervention made students more perseverant and industrious, there is some evidence that itmay have reduced consistency in their interests over time.
    Keywords: Educational Sciences,Gender and Development,Educational Institutions & Facilities,Effective Schools and Teachers
    Date: 2021–11–02
  45. By: Costa-Font, Joan (London School of Economics); Vilaplana-Prieto, Cristina (Universidad de Murcia)
    Abstract: Individual preferences for 'ageing in place' (AIP) in old age are not well understood. One way to test the strength of AIP preference is to investigate the effect of health shocks on residential mobility to smaller size or value dwellings, which we refer to as 'housing downsizing'. This paper exploits more than a decade worth of longitudinal data to study older people's housing decisions across a wide range of European countries. We estimate the effect of health shocks on the probability of different proxies for housing downsizing (residential mobility, differences in home value, home value to wealth ratio), considering the potential endogeneity of the health shock to examine the persistence of AIP preferences. Our findings suggest that consistently with the AIP hypothesis, every decade of life, the likelihood of downsizing decreases by two percentage points (pp). However, the experience of a health shock partially reverts such culturally embedded preference for AIP by a non- negligible magnitude on residential mobility (9pp increase after the onset of a degenerative illness, 9.3pp for other mental disorders and 6.5pp for ADL), home value to wealth ratio and the new dwelling's size (0.6 and 1.2 fewer rooms after the onset of a degenerative illness or a mental disorder). Such estimates are larger in northern and central European countries.
    Keywords: ageing in place, housing downsizing, health shocks at old age, Europe, residential mobility, mental degenerative mental illness, mental disorder
    JEL: I18 G51 J61 R31
    Date: 2022–10
  46. By: Dinarte Diaz,Lelys Ileana; Egana-delSol,Pablo; Martinez A.,Claudia
    Abstract: Non-cognitive skills can determine socioeconomic success and the transmission of economicstatus across generations. Yet, evidence of cost-effective interventions that aim to develop these skills for at-riskyouth living in highly violent contexts is still scarce. This paper experimentally studies the social-emotionallearning and protection components of an After School Program (ASP) for teenagers in the most violentneighborhoods of El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala. By combining administrative records and data gathered on-sitevia computer from task-based games and AI-powered emotion detection algorithms, this paper measures the ASP'simpacts on behavior, academic performance, and non-cognitive skills. To measure the learning component, 21 public schoolswere randomly assigned to extracurricular activities (Clubs), a psychology-based curriculum that aims tostrengthen participants' character (Mindful), or a mindfulness and relaxation technique program (Mindful). Toestimate the protection component, 8 schools were selected as pure controls with a propensity score approach. Resultsshow that the net learning component improved behavior at school by 0.46 standard deviations and reduced a proxy forstress by 0.45 standard deviations relative to the Clubs only ASP. These results were driven by the Virtuecurriculum. Although the protection component negatively impacts social-emotional skills, it is, on average, moreeffective for students with worse behavior at baseline, indicating that the ASP curriculum and the characteristicsof the population served are key in designing policies aimed at improving students' behavior.
    Keywords: Effective Schools and Teachers,Educational Institutions & Facilities,Education for Development (superceded),Education For All,Educational Populations,Crime and Society
    Date: 2022–03–07
  47. By: Haimovich Paz,Francisco; Vazquez,Emmanuel Jose; Adelman,Melissa Ann
    Abstract: Across many low- and middle-income countries, a sizable share of young people drop out of school before completing a full course of basic education. Early warning systems that accurately identify students at risk of dropout and support them with targeted interventions have shown results and are in widespread use in high-income contexts. This paper presents impact evaluation results from an early warning system pilot program in Guatemala, a middle-income country where nearly 40 percent of sixth graders drop out before completing ninth grade. The pilot program, which was implemented in 17 percent of Guatemala’s primary schools and largely leveraging existing government resources, reduced the dropout rate in the transition from primary to lower secondary school by 4 percent (1.3 percentage points) among schools assigned to the program, and by 9 percent (3 percentage points) among program compliers. Although the effect size is relatively modest, the low cost of the program (estimated at less than US$3 per student) and successful implementation at scale make this a promising and cost-effective approach for reducing dropout in resource-constrained contexts like Guatemala.
    Keywords: Educational Sciences,Educational Institutions&Facilities,Effective Schools and Teachers,Gender and Development,Hazard Risk Management,Disaster Management,Social Risk Management,Inequality
    Date: 2021–06–01
  48. By: Gorton,Nicole Emily; Ianchovichina,Elena
    Abstract: How do trade connectivity issues affect the efficient spatial distribution of economicactivity within and across countries in Latin America This paper uses a spatial general equilibrium framework toconstruct optimal transport networks and optimal expansions to existing networks in most Latin American countries, aswell as within MERCOSUR and the Andean Community. The paper assesses the average annual welfare losses due toinefficient domestic road networks in Latin America at 1.7 percent, ranging from 2.5 percent in Brazil to 0.2 percentin El Salvador. Spatial misallocation of transnational road networks is associated with annual welfare losses of 1.8percent in MERCOSUR and 1.6 percent in the Andean Community. Optimal investments in improvements and expansions ofexisting networks can correct these inefficiencies and reduce spatial inequality within countries. Theseinvestments correlate relatively well with World Bank road projects because both the model and the World Bankprioritize investments in high population areas. Transnational road improvements benefit the most the leastdeveloped country in each trade bloc. The results are robust to changes in data sources and model assumptions.
    Keywords: International Trade and Trade Rules,Transport Services,Green Issues,Roads & Highways,Inter-Urban Roads and Passenger Transport,Roads and Highways Performance,Inequality
    Date: 2021–11–05
  49. By: Groeger,Andre; León-Ciliotta,Gianmarco; Stillman,Steven Eric
    Abstract: Venezuela is currently experiencing the biggest crisis in its recent history. This has led to alarge increase in emigration. According to recent estimates, there are a total of 5.6 million Venezuelan immigrantsworldwide with over one million now living in Peru, which has led to an over 2 percent increase in the country’spopulation. Unlike in many other episodes of refugee migration, Venezuelan immigrants are not only very similarin cultural terms, but are, on average, also more skilled than Peruvians. This study first examines Venezuelans’perceptions about being discriminated against in Peru. Using an instrumental variable strategy, the results document acausal relationship between the level of employment in the informal sector – where most immigrants are employed – andreports of discrimination. The second part is focused on studying the impact of Venezuelan migration on local’s labormarket outcomes, reported crime rates and attitudes using a variety of data sources. The results provide evidence thatinflows of Venezuelans to particular locations in Peru lead to better labor market outcomes for locals, decreasedreported crime, as well as improved reported quality of local services, greater trust in neighbors and highercommunity quality.
    Keywords: Rural Labor Markets,Human Rights,Crime and Society,Human Migrations & Resettlements,International Migration,Migration and Development,Labor Markets
    Date: 2022–03–23
  50. By: Grover,Arti Goswami; Maloney,William F.
    Abstract: Recent literature suggests that the positive impact of population density on wages, thecanonical measure of agglomeration effects, is multiples higher in developing countries than in advanced economies.This poses an urban productivity puzzle because on-the-ground observations do not suggest that cities indeveloping countries function especially well or are conducive to enhanced productivity. This paper usesmanufacturing censuses from four countries at differing levels of income that allow separating plant output quantityfrom prices. It shows that higher wage elasticities with respect to density are due to higher marginal costs, andagglomeration elasticities of efficiency, physical total factor productivity, are in fact far lower in developingcountries. Further, congestion costs decrease with country income. Both are consistent with often low rates ofstructural transformation that make cities in developing countries so-called “sterile agglomerations,” which arepopulous but not efficient.
    Date: 2022–03–21
  51. By: Selod,Harris; Shilpi,Forhad J.
    Abstract: This paper reviews the recent literature on rural-urban migration in developing countries, focusing on three key questions: What motivates or forces people to migrate? What costs do migrants face? What are the impacts of migration on migrants and the economy? The literature paints a complex picture whereby rural-urban migration is driven by many factors and the returns to migration as well as the costs are very high. The evidence supports the notion that migration barriers hinder labor market adjustment and are likely to be welfare reducing. The review concludes by identifying gaps in current research and data needs.
    Keywords: Rural Urban Linkages,Labor Markets,Rural Labor Markets,Trade and Services,Common Property Resource Development,Social Policy,Judicial System Reform,Legal Reform,Legislation,Regulatory Regimes,Legal Products,Social Cohesion
    Date: 2021–05–13
  52. By: Fernanda Estevan; Lucas Finamor
    Abstract: We investigate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the transition between high school and college in Brazil. Using microdata from the universe of students that applied to a selective university, we document how the Covid-19 shock increased enrollment for students in the top 10% high-quality public and private high schools. This increase comes at the expense of graduates from relatively lower-quality schools. Furthermore, this effect is entirely driven by applicants who were at high school during the Covid pandemic. The effect is large and completely offsets the gains in student background diversity achieved by a bold quota policy implemented years before Covid. These results suggest that not only students from underprivileged backgrounds endured larger negative effects on learning during the pandemic, but they also experienced a stall in their educational paths.
    Date: 2022–09
  53. By: Murard,Elie
    Abstract: After the 1919–1922 Greco-Turkish conflict, 1.2 million Greek Orthodox were forcibly displacedfrom Turkey to Greece, increasing the host population by 20 percent within a few months. Refugees were pro-vided withfarmland, new houses and schools, and were granted the Greek citizenship. This paper analyses the long-term socialintegration of refugees and the effect of their resettlement on social cohesion. Combining historical and modernpopulation censuses and surveys, this paper finds that, by the 2000s, refugees display a high rate of intermarriagewith Greek natives, report levels of trust in others and in institutions similar to natives, and exhibit higherpolitical and civic participation. At the community level, places with a higher share of refugees in 1928 are morelikely to have at least one sport association 80 years later. There is no impact on political fragmentation nor oncrime. The historical refugees’ integration starkly contrasts with the social marginalization of recent Albanianimmigrants who, unlike the former, neither spoke Greek nor had the same religion as locals upon arrival. These resultssuggest that early investments in inclusion policies can be effective at fostering refugees’ assimilation, at least whennewcomers and locals have similar cultural profiles.
    Keywords: Indigenous Peoples,Indigenous Communities,Indigenous Peoples Law,Educational Sciences,Armed Conflict,Social Cohesion
    Date: 2022–01–26
  54. By: Edward N. Wolff
    Abstract: Recent work on wealth inequality based on the capitalization method wherein aggregate wealth totals are distributed in proportion to various forms of income like dividends has motivated a concern about whether rates of return on assets vary across the wealth distribution. In this study, I use a new data source, accrued capital gains on homes and other real estate as reported in the Survey of Consumer Finances. I find strong econometric evidence that returns on homes vary directly with wealth level and are considerably higher for the very wealthy compared to the middle class and lower wealth households. However, there is no evidence from the preferred specification that Black or Hispanic families receive lower returns on their property once controlling for factors such as years of occupancy and overall house price movements in the market. The number of years of occupancy is also a highly significant determinant of returns on homes. The effect is strongly negative because communities of residence become less desirable and real properties deteriorate physically over time, both factors reducing property values. Returns on individual homes are also strongly related to overall house price movements in the market, suggesting that timing the market is a key determinant.
    JEL: D31 H31 J15
    Date: 2022–10
  55. By: Lebrand,Mathilde Sylvie Maria
    Abstract: This paper estimates the welfare gains from upgrading several major regional corridors inWest Africa. It uses a quantitative economic geography framework with trade within and across countries andmobility of people within countries to assess the economic impacts of the reduction in trade costs from road and borderinfrastructure investments. The findings show that the upgrade of Dakar-Lagos regional road corridor brings sizableeconomic benefits relative to investment costs, with a benefit-cost ratio estimated around 3. The economic benefitsof road corridor upgrades are doubled and more widely spread when combined with measures to reduce current massive borderdelays. The benefits are negligible for Nigeria, but large for small fragile states (Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, and SierraLeone). The gains are highest for corridors connecting large economies, and smaller and more fragile countries gainproportionally more from accessing larger markets. Finally, regional investments, including border time reductionpolicies, will reduce spatial inequality in the whole region but might increase inequality in some countries.
    Keywords: International Trade and Trade Rules,Transport Services,Inequality,Ports & Waterways
    Date: 2021–11–19
  56. By: Denny,Elaine Kathryn; Dow,David; Levy,Gabriella; Villamizar-Chaparro,Mateo
    Abstract: How does extortion experienced during the migration journey affect the civic engagement ofdeported migrants returned to their home country More broadly, how does extortion affect political participationLittle is known about either the political behavior of returnees or about how coercive economic shocks experiencedduring migration affect subsequent levels of political participation. More broadly, existing literature on howvictimization affects political participation is inconclusive, particularly when combined with existing workon economic insecurity. Studying deported migrants and the quasi-random experience of extortion helps address theendogeneity that often confounds these analyses. This approach isolates the impact of extortion on politicalaction from potentially confounding factors related to local security or corruption. Using a novel dataset concerningGuatemalan migrants returned to Guatemala by the U.S. government, this paper finds that extortion has a direct,positive relationship with multiple forms of civic action, and that, at least in this context, the mobilizing effectsof economic hardship outweigh the potentially demobilizing effects of fear of crime.
    Date: 2022–04–26
  57. By: Michela Tincani (University College London); Fabian Kosse (LMU Munich); Enrico Miglino (University College London)
    Abstract: Exploiting the randomized expansion of preferential college admissions in Chile, we show they increased admission and enrollment of disadvantaged students by 32%. But the intended beneficiaries were nearly three times as many, and of higher average ability, than those induced to be admitted. The evidence points to students making pre-college choices that caused this divergence. Using linked survey-administrative data, we present evidence consistent with students being averse to preferential enrollment, misperceiving their abilities, and having social preferences towards their friends (although social preferences did not mediate the admission impacts). Simulations from an estimated structural model suggest that aversion to the preferential channel more than halved the enrollment impacts, by inducing some to forgo preferential admission eligibility, and that students' misperceptions worsened the ability-composition of college entrants, by distorting pre-college investments into admission qualifications. The results demonstrate the importance of understanding high school students' preferences and beliefs when designing preferential admissions.
    Keywords: Chile, student choice, social preferences, subjective beliefs
    JEL: I23 I24 D91 J24
  58. By: Burger,Martijn; Ianchovichina,Elena; Akbar,Prottoy Aman
    Abstract: Using geo-coded, firm-level data on more than 51,000 establishments in 649 metropolitan areas in98 developing economies, from the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys and a new global database on city-level mobility andcongestion, this paper estimates the “pure” firm productivity gains of urban density, net of negativeexternalities associated with limited mobility, crime, and pollution. The results suggest that the average size ofagglomeration economies in the developing world is comparable to the one observed in advanced countries, butthe magnitude of the benefits of density on firm productivity substantially varies across firms. Returns tourban density are higher for firms operating in the tradables sector, exporters, foreign-owned firms, largerfirms, and more experienced firms. Agglomeration economies are lost through both limited uncongested mobility andcongestion, but the latter has a stronger negative effect on agglomeration economies and reduces relatively more theagglomeration benefits of firms in the non-tradables sector than those producing tradables.
    Keywords: Labor Markets,Common Carriers Industry,Food & Beverage Industry,Construction Industry,Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies,General Manufacturing,Plastics & Rubber Industry,Textiles, Apparel & Leather Industry,Pulp & Paper Industry,Intelligent Transport Systems,Transport Services,Crime and Society
    Date: 2022–03–07
  59. By: Britto, Diogo (Bocconi University); Melo, Caíque (Bocconi University); Sampaio, Breno (Universidade Federal de Pernambuco)
    Abstract: We study the effects of parental job loss on children and how access to unemployment benefits can mitigate these impacts. We leverage unique nationwide data from Brazil linking multiple administrative datasets, and take a comprehensive approach studying impacts on education as well as other key dimensions of children's lives. First, leveraging mass layoffs for identification, we show that parental job loss increases school dropouts and age-grade distortion by up to 1.5 percentage points. These effects are pervasive, last for at least six years and significantly reduce high-school completion rates. Second, we document that other important dimensions of children's lives are affected. Following the layoff, children are more likely to work informally, commit crime, and experience early pregnancy. In turn, parents reduce educational investments by moving children from private to lower-quality public schools. Using a clean regression discontinuity design, we show that access to unemployment benefits effectively mitigates some of the intergenerational impacts of job loss, notably on teenage school dropouts and crime, and on parental investments in school quality. Our findings indicate that the income losses following parental displacement are an important mechanism of the effects on children, highlighting the importance of policies that provide income support for displaced workers.
    Keywords: parental job loss, children's outcomes, unemployment insurance, Brazil
    JEL: K42 J63 J65
    Date: 2022–09
  60. By: Zhou,Yang-Yang; Grossman,Guy; Ge,Shuning
    Abstract: Large arrivals of refugees raise concerns about potential tensions with host communities,particularly if refugees are viewed as an out-group competing for limited material resources and crowding outpublic services. To address this concern, calls have increased to allocate humanitarian aid in ways that (also)benefit host communities. This study empirically tests whether the presence of refugees in Uganda (one of thelargest refugee-hosting countries) has improved public service delivery, and consequently, dampened potentialsocial conflict. The data com- bines geospatial information on refugee settlements with unique longitudinal data onprimary and secondary schools, road density, health clinics, and health utilization. This study reports two key findings.First, particularly after the 2014 arrival of over 1 million South Sudanese refugees, host communities with greaterlevels of refugee presence experienced substantial improvements in local development. Second, using publicopinion data, we find no evidence that refugee presence is associated with more negative (or positive) attitudestowards migrants or migration policy.
    Keywords: Health Care Services Industry,Educational Sciences,Health Service Management and Delivery,Crime and Society
    Date: 2022–03–23
  61. By: Luiz de Mello; João Tovar Jalles
    Abstract: The subnational governments, at the regional and local levels, play an important role in the prevention, management and recovery from natural disasters and pandemics/epidemics. These jurisdictions are responsible for issuing and monitoring compliance with several aspects of regulation that are essential for risk prevention, including land use and construction codes; for providing frontline services that are crucial for effective crisis management, including health care, civil protection, and public order and safety; and for rebuilding lost or damaged physical infrastructure in the recovery phase. This paper provides empirical evidence based on impulse response functions that the occurrence of natural disasters and the outbreak of pandemics/epidemics are associated with an increase in the subnational shares of government spending and revenue in the years following these shocks. These decentralisation effects vary according to specific shocks and are conditional on the business cycle: they tend to be stronger when the shocks materialise during cyclical expansions.
    Keywords: decentralisation; natural disasters; pandemics; epidemics; public finances; regional autonomy; impulse response functions; panel data.
    JEL: H11 H23 H77 Q58
    Date: 2022–10
  62. By: Andrea Albanese (Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER), Luxembourg, Department of Economics, Ghent University, Belgium, IRES/LIDAM, UCLouvain, Belgium, IZA, Bonn, Germany, e GLO, Essen, Germany); Bart Cockx (Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER), Luxembourg, Department of Economics, Ghent University, Belgium, IRES/LIDAM, UCLouvain, Belgium, CESIfo, Munich, Germany, g ROA, Maastricht University); Muriel Dejemeppe (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))
    Abstract: We use (donut) regression discontinuity design and difference-in-differences estimators to estimate the impact of a one-shot hiring subsidy targeted at low-educated unemployed youths during the Great Recession recovery in Belgium. The subsidy increases job-finding in the private sector by 10 percentage points within one year of unemployment. Six years later, high school graduates accumulated 2.8 quarters more private employment. However, because they substitute private for public and self-employment, overall employment does not increase but is still better paid. For high school dropouts, no persistent gains emerge. Moreover, the neighboring attraction pole of Luxembourg induces a complete deadweight near the border.
    Keywords: Hiring subsidies, youth unemployment, cross-border employment, regression discontinuity design, difference-in-differences, spillover effects, displacement
    JEL: C21 J08 J23 J24 J64 J68 J61
    Date: 2022–09–16
  63. By: Amaro Da Costa Luz Carneiro,Pedro Manuel; Cruz-Aguayo,Yyannu; Intriago,Ruthy; Ponce,Juan; Schady,Norbert Rudiger; Schodt,Sarah
    Abstract: Children in developing countries have deep deficits in math and language. Personalized coachingfor teachers has been proposed as a way of raising teacher quality and child achievement. The authors designed acoaching program that focused on one aspect of teacher quality—teacher-child interactions—that researchers ineducation and psychology have argued is critical for child development and learning. The coaching program wasimplemented in Ecuador, with 100 1st grade teachers randomly assigned to treatment and 100 to control. Coaching improvedthe quality of teacher-child interactions but reduced child achievement. These results underline the importance ofevaluating new forms of professional development for teachers, even those that follow best practice, before theseinterventions are taken to scale.
    Keywords: Educational Institutions & Facilities,Effective Schools and Teachers,Educational Sciences,Early Childhood Development,Nutrition,Reproductive Health,Early Child and Children's Health,Children and Youth,Gender and Development
    Date: 2022–02–07
  64. By: Giménez-Nadal, José Ignacio; Velilla, Jorge; Ortega, Raquel
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the commuting behavior of employee and self-employed workers in urban areas of eleven Latin American countries, within a theoretical framework that identifies employees' excess commuting as different from self-employed workers' commuting. Using data from the ECAF data, results show that employees spend about 8.2 more minutes commuting to work than their self-employed counterparts, net of observable characteristics, a difference of around 18.5% of the employees' commuting time. This difference is qualitatively robust across the eleven countries and is concentrated in commutes by public transit, but it is not explained by differences in access to public transit services between the two groups. This analysis is a first exploration of self-employed and employee workers' commuting time in Latin American countries. By analyzing differences in commuting time between these two groups of Latin American workers, our analysis may serve to guide future planning programs.
    Keywords: commuting time,self-employment,Latin America,ECAF data
    JEL: R40 O57
    Date: 2022
  65. By: Grover,Arti Goswami; Lall,Somik V.; Timmis,Jonathan David
    Abstract: Recent empirical work suggests that there are large agglomeration gains from working and living in developing country cities. These estimates find that doubling city size is associated with an increase in productivity by 19 percent in China, 12 percent in India, and 17 percent in Africa. These agglomeration benefits are considerably higher relative to developed country cities, which are in the range of 4 to 6 percent. However, many developing country cities are costly, crowded, and disconnected, and face slow structural transformation. To understand the true productivity advantages of cities in developing countries, this paper systematically evaluates more than 1,200 elasticity estimates from 70 studies in 33 countries. Using a frontier methodology for conducting meta-analysis, it finds that the elasticity estimates in developing countries are at most 1 percentage point higher than in advanced economies, but not significantly so. The paper provides novel estimates of the elasticity of pollution, homicide, and congestion, using a large sample of developing and developed country cities. No evidence is found for productivity gains in light of the high and increasing costs of working in developing country cities.
    Keywords: Crime and Society,Food&Beverage Industry,General Manufacturing,Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies,Textiles, Apparel&Leather Industry,Pulp&Paper Industry,Common Carriers Industry,Construction Industry,Plastics&Rubber Industry,Labor Markets
    Date: 2021–07–19
  66. By: Reyes, Celia M.; Arboneda, Arkin; Vargas, Anna Rita P.
    Abstract: The Community-Based Monitoring System (CBMS) is an organized technology-based system of collecting, processing, and validating local-level data based on a census of households in the locality. It was institutionalized by virtue of Republic Act 11315 in April 2019. This paper aims to illustrate how local government units (LGUs) can use the CBMS in their planning process. The study finds that since the CBMS provides disaggregated local-level data, local planners can use it to identify and target vulnerable members of society better. Regular updating of the CBMS would also allow LGUs to generate panel data, which could help monitor the long-term impact of policies and programs on vulnerable households. Moreover, geotagging of households through the CBMS allows local officials to locate those at risk from natural hazards.
    Keywords: Community-Based Monitoring System;CBMS;local government units;local planning process;local budgeting;Republic Act 11315;CBMS law;devolution;Local Government Code
    Date: 2022
  67. By: Gatti, Nicolò (USI Università della Svizzera Italiana); Mazzonna, Fabrizio (USI Università della Svizzera Italiana); Parchet, Raphaël (USI Università della Svizzera Italiana); Pica, Giovanni (USI Università della Svizzera Italiana)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of opening the labor market to qualified immigrants who hold fully equivalent diplomas with respect to natives and speak the same mother tongue. Leveraging the 2002 opening of the Swiss labor market to qualified workers from the European Union, we show that the policy change led to a large inflow of young immigrants with the same linguistic background as natives. This, in turn, produced heterogeneous effects on natives wages and employment. While incumbent workers experienced a wage gain and a decrease in the likelihood of becoming inactive, the opposite happened for young natives entering the labor market after the policy change. This is likely the result of different patterns of complementarity/substitutability between same-language immigrants and natives with different levels of labor market experience.
    Keywords: worker substitutability, wage effects, qualified immigration, experience
    JEL: F22 J08 J31 J61
    Date: 2022–10
  68. By: Cueva,Ronald; Del Carpio,Ximena Vanessa; Winkler,Hernan Jorge
    Abstract: This paper provides new evidence on the impacts of the COVID-19 economic crisis on a labor market with a high prevalence of informality. The analysis uses a rich longitudinal household survey for Peru that contains a host of individual and job outcomes before and during the first months of the lockdown in 2020. The findings show that workers who had jobs in non-essential and informal sectors were significantly more likely to become unemployed. In contrast to developed countries, having a job amenable to working from home is not correlated with job loss when controlling for informal status. This is consistent with the high level of labor market segmentation observed in Peru, where high-skilled occupations are disproportionately concentrated in the formal sector, which was also better targeted by policies aimed at supporting firms and job protection during the crisis. In addition, the findings show that women were more likely to lose their jobs because female-dominated sectors are more intensive in face-to-face interactions and thereby more affected by social distancing measures. Increased childcare responsibilities also help explain the worse impacts on women in rural areas. Finally, workers who depended on public transportation before the crisis were more likely to lose their jobs during the early months of the pandemic.
    Keywords: Labor Markets,Transport Services,Rural Labor Markets,Urban Transport,Transport in Urban Areas
    Date: 2021–05–25
  69. By: Betts,Alexander Milton Stedman; Stierna,Maria Flinder; Omata,Naohiko; Sterck,Olivier Christian Brigitte
    Abstract: Building upon the literature on contact theory, this paper explores the role of inter-groupinteraction in shaping social cohesion between refugees and host communities in East Africa. It draws upon first-handquantitative (n=16,608) and qualitative data collected from refugees and nearby host communities in urban and camp-likecontexts in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda. Focusing on the Uganda data, OLS regressions reveal a positive andsignificant correlation between refugee-host interaction and the perception of hosts towards refugees. This associationdisappears when an instrumental variable (IV) approach is used to address endogeneity issues, except when only datafrom the urban context is used. The analysis of cross-country data highlights further differences in thetypes of interaction and perception that matter between urban and camp-like contexts. It also suggests thatethno-linguistic proximity between refugee and host populations is associated with more positive attitudes. Inall contexts, an important part of attitude formation appears to take place at the intra-group level, withinhouseholds and immediate neighbourhoods, independently of individual interaction with the out-group. The paperproposes a series of policy recommendations to improve refugee-host social cohesion, with different approachesrequired in urban and camp-like contexts.
    Keywords: Human Migrations & Resettlements,International Migration,Migration and Development,Social Cohesion,Post Conflict Reconstruction
    Date: 2022–01–27
  70. By: Esther Arenas-Arroyo; Bernhard Schmidpeter (Johannes Kepler Universtiy Linz)
    Abstract: We study the spillover effects of immigration enforcement policies on children’s human capital. Exploiting the temporal and geographic variation in the enactment of immigration enforcement policies, we find that English language skills of US-born children with at least one undocumented parent are negatively affected by the introduction of these policies. Changes in parental investment behavior cause this reduction in children’s English skills. Parents are less likely to enroll their children in formal non-mandatory preschool, substituting formal non-mandatory preschool education with parental time at home. Parents also reduce time spent on leisure and socializing, providing children with fewer opportunities to interact and lean from others. Ultimately, these developments reduce children’s long-term educational success. Exposure to immigration enforcement during early childhood lowers the likelihood of high school completion. We also find negative, though imprecise, effects on college enrollment.
    Keywords: Immigration policies, children’s human capital, children’s language skills, parental investment
    JEL: K37 J13 J15
    Date: 2022–10
  71. By: Batista,Catia; Mckenzie,David J.
    Abstract: The predictions of different classic migration theories are tested by using incentivized laboratory experiments to investigate how potential migrants decide between working in different destinations. First, the authors test theories of income maximization, migrant skill-selection, and multi-destination choice as they vary migration costs, liquidity constraints, risk, social benefits, and incomplete information. The standard income maximization model of migration with selection on observed and unobserved skills leads to a much higher migration rate and more negative skill-selection than is obtained when migration decisions take place under more realistic assumptions. Second, these lab experiments are used to investigate whether the independence of irrelevant alternatives assumption holds. The results show that it holds for most people when decisions just involve wages, costs, and liquidity constraints. However, once the risk of unemployment and incomplete information is added, independence of irrelevant alternatives no longer holds for about 20 percent of the sample.
    Keywords: Employment and Unemployment,Educational Sciences,Social Cohesion,International Trade and Trade Rules
    Date: 2021–08–17
  72. By: Müller,Tobias; Pannatier,Pia; Viarengo,Martina Giorgia
    Abstract: The paper examines the patterns of economic integration of refugees in Switzerland, a countrywith a long tradition of hosting refugees, a top-receiving host in Europe, and a prominent example of a multiculturalsociety. It relies on a unique longitudinal dataset consisting of administrative records and social securitydata for the universe of refugees in Switzerland over 1998–2018. This data is used to reconstruct theindividual-level trajectories of refugees and to follow them since arrival over the life-cycle. The study documents thepatterns of labor-market integration, and highlights the heterogeneity by gender and age at arrival. Refugees’labor-market performance is compared to natives’ and other groups of migrants’ labor-market performance. The empiricalanalysis exploits the government dispersal policy in place since 1998, which consists of the random allocation ofrefugees across cantons, to identify the causal effects of the local initial conditions. The study finds that higherunemployment rates at arrival slow down the integration process, whereas the existence of a co-ethnic network doesnot consistently lead to a faster integration. It is shown that in locations where refugees face relatively morehostile attitudes by natives upon arrival, they integrate at a faster pace, probably due to a greater effort undertakenin environments that are more hostile. Together these results, highlight the importance of an early entry in thelabor market of the host country, and the need to take a longer run perspective when examining the effectiveness ofpolicies, as the effects may vary over time and different complementary interventions may be needed in the short vs. long-run.
    Keywords: Rural Labor Markets,Labor Markets,Indigenous Peoples Law,Indigenous Communities,Indigenous Peoples,Armed Conflict,Employment and Unemployment,Educational Sciences
    Date: 2022–01–26
  73. By: Alberini,Anna; Umapathi,Nithin
    Abstract: In April 2015, the Government of Ukraine abruptly raised the tariffs of natural gas to residential customers, which were previously well below the cost of acquiring gas and delivering it to households. The tariff increase—700 percent—caused considerable distress to the population and led the government to scale up its existing energy assistance program, the housing and utilities subsidy program. This paper examines the welfare effect of the program and potential redesigns of the program. Using several waves of Ukraine’s Household Budget Survey, the analysis finds that electricity, gas, and fuels account for a considerable share of household income. After the tariff hike, the average household that did not receive the housing and utilities subsidy spends 11 percent of its income on electricity, gas, and fuels, implying that it meets the definition of “fuel poor.” The average share for households that do receive the subsidy is 6–8 percent. The housing and utilities subsidy cuts the rate of fuel poverty in half. It also brings considerable consumer surplus gains of 6–7 percent of income. This comes at a high price tag for the government, as the budget for the housing and utilities subsidy is 1–2.5 percent of gross domestic product. Considerable savings would be achieved with only a small loss of consumer surplus if the housing and utilities subsidy was cut in half. Linking the subsidy solely to income would also attain considerable savings, but at a high loss of welfare. The housing and utilities subsidy could also be paired with social tariffs, or an energy efficiency subsidy, with major savings for the government.
    Keywords: Oil Refining&Gas Industry,Energy Demand,Energy and Mining,Energy and Environment,Inequality,Energy Policies&Economics,Municipal Management and Reform,Urban Governance and Management,Urban Housing,Urban Housing and Land Settlements
    Date: 2021–05–21
  74. By: Bossavie,Laurent Loic Yves; Ozden,Caglar
    Abstract: Temporary migration is widespread globally. While the literature has traditionally focused onthe impacts of permanent migration on destination countries, evidence on the effects of temporary migration on origincountries has grown over the past decade. This paper highlights that the economic development impacts, especiallyon low- and middle-income origin countries are complex, dynamic, context-specific and multi-channeled. The paperidentifies five main pathways: (i) labor supply, (ii) human capital, (iii) financial capital and entrepreneurship, (iv)aggregate welfare and poverty, and (v) institutions and social norms. Several factors shape these pathways and theireventual impacts. These include initial economic conditions at home, the scale and double selectivity of emigration andreturn migration, and employment and human capital accumulation opportunities experienced by migrants whilethey are overseas, among others. Meaningful policy interventions to increase the development impacts oftemporary migration require proper analysis, which, in turn, depends on high quality data on workers’ employmenttrajectories. This is currently the biggest research challenge to overcome to study the development impacts oftemporary migration.
    Date: 2022–04–05
  75. By: Serafica, Ramonette B.; Vergara, Jean Colleen M.; Oren, Queen Cel A.
    Abstract: In the Philippines, the services sector accounts for 60 percent of gross domestic product and almost 57 percent of employment. Across regions and subsectors, however, the contribution of services varies. Using a simple shift-share technique, this study examines the patterns at the regional and subsector level and decomposes the changes into three factors: national share (growth effect), industry mix (sectoral effect), and regional shift (competitive effect). Focusing on changes in employment, the shift-share decomposition reveals that the overall growth of the economy from 2012 to 2018 had a positive impact in all sectors and regions. However, some industries showed negative sectoral effects, namely, accommodation and food service activities; arts, entertainment, and recreation; and education. Industry-specific factors in education services were quite strong that the economy's dynamism failed to offset the industry mix effect. It was the only sector that registered lower total employment during the period. In terms of the regional shift effects, 109 out of the total 204 regional service industries (53%) displayed locational disadvantages.
    Keywords: services; human capital development; Philippines; employment; regional distribution; shift-share analysis
    Date: 2021
  76. By: Ghose,Devaki
    Abstract: How do trade shocks affect welfare and inequality when human capital is endogenous? Using an external information technology demand shock and detailed internal migration data from India, this paper first documents that both information technology employment and engineering enrollment responded to the rise in information technology exports. Information technology employment responded more when nearby regions had a higher share of college-age population. The paper then develops a quantitative spatial equilibrium model featuring two new channels: higher education choice and differential costs of migrating for college and work. The framework is used to quantify the aggregate and distributional effects of the information technology boom and perform counterfactuals. Without endogenous education, the estimated aggregate welfare gain from the export shock would have been about a third as large and regional inequality twice as large. Reducing barriers to mobility for education, such as reducing in-state quotas for students at higher education institutes, would substantially reduce inequality in the gains from the information technology boom across districts.
    Keywords: Educational Sciences,International Trade and Trade Rules,Labor Markets,Employment and Unemployment
    Date: 2021–07–27
  77. By: Arenas-Arroyo, Esther (Vienna University of Economics and Business); Schmidpeter, Bernhard (University of Linz)
    Abstract: We study the spillover effects of immigration enforcement policies on children's human capital. Exploiting the temporal and geographic variation in the enactment of immigration enforcement policies, we find that the English language skills of US-born children with at least one undocumented parent are negatively affected by the introduction of these policies. Changes in parental investment behavior cause this reduction in children's English skills. Parents are less likely to enroll their children in formal non-mandatory preschool, substituting formal non-mandatory preschool education with parental time at home. Parents also reduce time spent on leisure and socializing, providing children with fewer opportunities to interact and learn from others. Ultimately, these developments reduce children's long-term educational success. Exposure to immigration enforcement during early childhood lowers the likelihood of high school completion. We also find negative, though imprecise, effects on college enrollment.
    Keywords: parental investment, children's language skills, children's human capital, Immigration policies
    JEL: K37 J13 J15
    Date: 2022–10
  78. By: Bastos,Paulo S. R.; Santos Villagran,Nicolas Eduardo
    Abstract: This paper uses municipal-level data from South Africa for the period 1996–2011 to estimate the medium to long-run effects of trade liberalization on local labor markets. It finds that local labor markets that were more exposed to tariff cuts tended to experience slower growth in employment and income per capita than less exposed regions. The longer-term effects of trade liberalization on regional earnings are stronger than the medium-term effects, and tend to be more pronounced among municipalities that included the former homelands.
    Keywords: International Trade and Trade Rules,Rural Labor Markets,Labor Markets,Educational Sciences,Trade and Multilateral Issues,Mining&Extractive Industry (Non-Energy)
    Date: 2021–06–02
  79. By: Maruyama Rentschler,Jun Erik; Avner,Paolo; Marconcini,Mattia; Su,Rui; Strano,Emanuele; Bernard,Louise Alice Karine; Riom,Capucine Anne Veronique; Hallegatte,Stephane
    Abstract: As countries rapidly urbanize, settlements are expanding into hazardous flood zones. Thisstudy provides a global analysis of spatial urbanization patterns and the evolution of flood exposure between 1985and 2015. Using high-resolution annual data, it shows that settlements across the world grew by 85 percent to over 1.28million square kilometers. In the same period, settlements exposed to the highest flood hazard level increased by 122percent. In many regions, risky growth is outpacing safe growth, particularly in East Asia, where high-risksettlements have expanded 60 percent faster than safe ones. Developing countries are driving the recent growth of floodexposure: 36,500 square kilometers of settlements were built in the world’s highest-risk zones since 1985–82 percent ofwhich are in low- and middle-income countries. In comparison, recent growth in high-income countries has beenrelatively slow and safe. These results document a divergence in countries’ exposure to flood hazards. Ratherthan adapting their exposure to climatic hazards, many countries are actively increasing their exposure.
    Date: 2022–04–21
  80. By: Nicholas Buchholz (Princeton University); Laura Doval (Columbia University); Jakub Kastl (Princeton University); Filip Matejka (CERGE-EI); Tobias Salz (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: We recover valuations of time using detailed data from a large ride-hail platform, where drivers bid on trips and consumers choose between a set of rides with different prices and waiting times. Leveraging a consumer panel, we estimate demand as a function of both prices and waiting times and use the resulting estimates to recover heterogeneity in the value of time at the individual level. We study the welfare implications of platform pricing policies that take advantage of this heterogeneity. In particular, we compare the consumers’, drivers’, and platform’s welfare under different forms of price discrimination. Taking into account drivers’ optimal reaction to the platform’s pricing policy, total surplus falls by 6% under personalized pricing relative to the current mechanism. However, total surplus grows by 33% compared to the case in which the platform does not incorporate consumer information into its pricing.
    Keywords: Value of time, demand in transportation markets, ride hail
    JEL: C73 D83 L90 R12
    Date: 2022–06
  81. By: Bah,Tijan L; Batista,Catia; Gubert,Flore; Mckenzie,David J.
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in border closures in many countries and a sharp reduction in overall international mobility. However, this disruption of legal pathways to migration has raised concerns that potential migrants may turn to irregular migration routes as a substitute. This paper examines how the pandemic has changed intentions to migrate from The Gambia, the country with the highest pre-pandemic per-capita irregular migration rates in Africa. A large-scale panel survey conducted in 2019 and 2020 is used to compare changes in intentions to migrate to Europe and to neighboring Senegal. The data show that the pandemic has reduced the intention to migrate to both destinations, with approximately one-third of young males expressing less intention to migrate. The largest reductions in migration intentions are for individuals who were unsure of their intent pre-pandemic, and for poorer individuals who are no longer able to afford the costs of migrating at a time when these costs have increased and their remittance income has fallen. This paper also introduces the methodology of priming experiments to the study of migration intentions, by randomly varying the salience of the COVID-19 pandemic before eliciting intentions to migrate. There is no impact of this added salience, which appears to be because knowledge of the virus, while imperfect, was already enough to inform migration decisions. Nevertheless, despite these decreases in intentions, the overall desire to migrate the backway to Europe remains high, highlighting the need for legal migration pathways to support migrants and divert them from the risks of backway migration.
    Keywords: Health Care Services Industry,Social Cohesion,Labor Markets,Financial Sector Policy
    Date: 2021–05–12
  82. By: Bedaso, Fenet Jima (University of Trier); Jirjahn, Uwe (University of Trier); Goerke, Laszlo (IAAEU, University of Trier)
    Abstract: We hypothesize that incomplete integration into the workplace and society implies that immigrants are less likely to be union members than natives. Incomplete integration makes the usual mechanism for overcoming the collective action problem less effective. Using data from the Socio-Economic Panel, our empirical analysis confirms a unionization gap for first-generation immigrants in Germany. Importantly, the analysis shows that the immigrant-native gap in union membership indeed depends on immigrants' integration into the workplace and society. The gap is smaller for immigrants working in firms with a works council and having social contacts with Germans. Our analysis also confirms that the gap is decreasing in the years since arrival in Germany.
    Keywords: union membership, migration, works council, social contacts with natives, years since arrival
    JEL: J15 J52 J61
    Date: 2022–09
  83. By: Iimi,Atsushi
    Abstract: Transport infrastructure is an important driving force for economic growth. Africa has been lagging behind in the global manufacturing market. Among others, infrastructure is often an important constraint. The paper reexamines the impacts of transport infrastructure on firm productivity in Mozambique. A conventional cost function is estimated with two rounds of firm data collected in 2007 and 2018. It is found that improved transport connectivity, particularly access to a port, has a positive impact on firm production. Firm inventory is also an important determinant of firm productivity. Over the long term, agglomeration economies are also found to be significant and associated with port accessibility. These findings are consistent with the fact that the Government of Mozambique heavily invested in the primary road network during the first half of the 2010s. The improved transport network is considered to have contributed to the country’s robust economic growth in the industrial and service sectors until the mid-2010s.
    Keywords: Transport Services,Food&Beverage Industry,Common Carriers Industry,Construction Industry,Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies,General Manufacturing,Plastics&Rubber Industry,Pulp&Paper Industry,Textiles, Apparel&Leather Industry,Energy Policies&Economics,Energy and Mining,Energy and Environment,Energy Demand
    Date: 2021–07–02
  84. By: Gertler,Paul J.,Heckman,James J.,Pinto,Rodrigo Ribeiro Antunes,Chang-Lopez,Susan M.,Grantham-Mcgregor,Sally,Vermeersch,Christel M. J.,Walker,Susan,Wright,Amika S.
    Abstract: This paper reports the labor market effects of the Jamaica Early Childhood Stimulation intervention at age 31. The study is a small-sample randomized early childhood education stimulation intervention targeting stunted children living in the poor neighborhoods of Kingston, Jamaica. Implemented in 1987–89, treatment consisted of a two-year, home-based intervention designed to improve nutrition and the quality of mother-child interactions to foster cognitive, language, and psycho-social skills. The original sample was 127 stunted children between ages 9 and 24 months. The study was able to track and interview 75 percent of the original sample 30 years after the intervention, both still living in Jamaica and migrated abroad. The findings reveal large and statistically significant effects on income and schooling; the treatment group had 43 percent higher hourly wages and 37 percent higher earnings than the control group. This is a substantial increase over the treatment effect estimated for age 22, when a 25 percent increase in earnings was observed.
    Keywords: Social Protections&Assistance,Health Care Services Industry,Nutrition,Educational Sciences,Rural Labor Markets,Labor Markets
    Date: 2021–09–30
  85. By: Albarosa,Emanuele; Elsner,Benjamin
    Abstract: In 2015, Germany welcomed close to one million asylum seekers and refugees from Syria,Afghanistan, the Western Balkans and elsewhere. Although the country was often praised for its welcome culture, theinflow has spurred a debate about identity, social cohesion and the limits of multiculturalism. This paper analyzes theeffect of this inflow on various dimensions of social cohesion. To separate causation from correlation, itexploits the fact that asylum seekers in Germany are allocated to local areas based on an area’s tax revenues andpopulation several years prior. Therefore, the allocation is unrelated to current economic, political or socialconditions. Based on survey data as well as data scraped from newspapers, the paper documents two sets of results.First, it finds no effect on self-reported indicators of trust and perceived fairness, and a small negative effect onand attitudes towards immigrants. In contrast, it finds that the refugee inflow led to an increased incidence ofanti-immigrant violence that lasted for about two years. This increase is larger in areas with higher unemploymentand greater support for right-wing parties.
    Keywords: Social Cohesion,International Migration,Migration and Development,Human Migrations & Resettlements,Crime and Society,Indigenous Peoples Law,Indigenous Peoples,Indigenous Communities,Rural Labor Markets,Labor Markets
    Date: 2022–01–26
  86. By: Brad R. Humphreys (West Virginia University, Department of Economics); Alexander Marsella (West Virginia University, Department of Economics); Levi Perez (University of Oviedo)
    Abstract: Technological advancements like the presence of smart phones and body cameras have led to increased monitoring of police, but little evidence exists on their impact. We address these problems using data on fouls from football matches in five European football leagues over six seasons. This period contains exogenous changes in monitoring rule enforcers through introduction of Video Assistant Referee review and limited "bystanders" from Covid-19 restrictions. Results from difference-in-differences models estimated separately for each league indicate that both events influenced the number of fouls called with substantial heterogeneity across leagues and home/away teams.
    Keywords: crime, police monitoring, football fouls
    JEL: H41 K42 Z20
    Date: 2022–10
  87. By: Charlotte Cavaillé (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Karine van der Straeten (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: Research shows that opposition to policies that redistribute across racial divides has affected the development of the American welfare state. Are similar dynamics at play in Western Europe? For many scholars, the answer is yes. In contrast, we argue that researchers' understanding of the political economy of redistribution in diversifying European countries is too incomplete to reach a conclusion on this issue. First, existing evidence is inconsistent with the assumption —ubiquitous in this line of research— of a universal distaste for sharing resources with people who are culturally, ethnically and racially different. Second, important historical and institutional differences between the U.S. and Europe preclude any straightforward transposition of the American experience to the European case. We discuss what we see as the most promising lines of inquiry going forward.
    Keywords: Immigration,Parochial altruism,Redistribution,Welfare state,Europe,United State
    Date: 2022–09–20
  88. By: Giulio Cornelli; Jon Frost; Leonardo Gambacorta; Julapa Jagtiani
    Abstract: Small business lending (SBL) plays an important role in funding productive investment and fostering local economic growth. Recently, nonbank lenders have gained market share in the SBL market in the United States, especially relative to community banks. Among nonbanks, fintech lenders have become particularly active, leveraging alternative data for their own internal credit scoring. We use proprietary loan-level data from two fintech SBL platforms (Funding Circle and LendingClub) to explore the characteristics of loans originated pre-pandemic (2016-2019). Our results show that fintech SBL platforms lent more in zip codes with higher unemployment rates and higher business bankruptcy filings. Moreover, fintech platforms' internal credit scores were able to predict future loan performance more accurately than the traditional approach to credit scoring, particularly in areas with high unemployment. Using Y-14M loan-level bank data, we also compare fintech SBL with traditional bank business cards in terms of credit access and interest rates. Overall, fintech lenders have a potential to create a more inclusive financial system, allowing small businesses that were less likely to receive credit through traditional lenders to access credit and to do so at lower cost.
    Keywords: fintech credit, peer-to-peer (P2P) lending, marketplace lending, small business lending (SBL), Funding Circle, LendingClub, alternative data, credit access, credit scoring.
    JEL: G18 G21 G28 L21
    Date: 2022–09
  89. By: Margaryan, Atom S.; Terzyan, Haroutyun T.; Grigoryan, Emil A.
    Abstract: One of the pillars of the Belt and Road Initiative is the deepening of cooperation between member countries, especially in the field of science and innovation. But, is there any historical evidence of the concept of the Great Silk Road as a region of technology transfer, first? Secondly, what are the priorities and development directions of the initiative in the mentioned context? Third, what development guidelines should be set for the participating countries (Washington, Beijing, etc.). And finally, is there really a connection between infrastructure development and innovation activity? To answer the last question, a correlation and econometric analysis has been performed, the results of which indicate positive effects.
    Keywords: The Great Silk Road,Belt and Road Initiative,Innovation,Patent Activity,TechnologyTransfer
    Date: 2022
  90. By: Jeremiah Dittmar; Ralph R. Meisenzahl
    Abstract: We examine the role of universities in knowledge production and industrial change using historical evidence. Political shocks led to a profound pro-science shift in German universities around 1800. To study the consequences, we construct novel microdata. We find that invention and manufacturing developed similarly in cities closer to and farther from universities in the 1700s and shifted towards universities and accelerated in the early 1800s. The shift in manufacturing was strongest in new and high knowledge industries. After 1800, the adoption of mechanized technology and the number and share of firms winning international awards for innovation were higher near universities.
    Keywords: industrialization, invention, universities, cities
    Date: 2022–06–30
  91. By: Coniglio,Nicola Daniele; Peragine,Vitorocco; Vurchio,Davide
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is twofold. Firstly, the authors analyze the geographical dimension ofrefugee camps in Africa by shedding light on the heterogeneous location patterns of hosting camps acrosscountries as well as the economic settings in which refugee camps are situated, which allows us to identify the maindeterminants of such patterns. Second, the authors investigate the effects of hosting refugees in camps on theoccurrence of protests and social conflicts, by using geo-referenced panel data from a large sample of Africancountries between 2000 and 2014. The main analysis is performed by using 50x50 km cells as units of analysis,GDELT and GED data on the frequency of protests, armed conflicts and other organized violence events and data fromUNHCR Camp Mapping Database. By using a counterfactual empirical strategy, the authors find that refugee campssignificantly increase the occurrence of protests only in the first two years while no significant effect is detectedin the subsequent years. The authors do not find evidence of any effect of camps location on the frequency of violenceevents resulting in casualties. Moreover, by performing ahighly detailed analysis with GHSL data the authors find that the presence of camps on average positively affectseconomic growth.
    Keywords: Post Conflict Reconstruction,Social Cohesion
    Date: 2022–03–23
  92. By: Gaduh,Arya Budhiastra; Pradhan,Menno Prasad; Priebe,Jan; Susanti,Dewi
    Abstract: Remote schools in developing countries are costly to supervise, resulting in low teacher accountability and poor education outcomes. This paper reports the results of a randomized evaluation of three treatments that introduced teacher incentives based on community monitoring of teacher effort against locally agreed standards. The Social Accountability Mechanism (SAM) treatment facilitated a joint commitment between schools and community members to improve learning. Teacher performance was rated against it, discussed in monthly public meetings and passed on to authorities. The second and third treatments combined SAM with a performance pay mechanism that would penalize eligible teachers’ remote area allowance for poor performance. In the SAM+Camera (SAM+Cam) treatment, the cut was based on absence as recorded by a tamper-proof camera; while in the SAM+Score treatment, it was based on the overall rating. After one year, the findings indicate improvements in learning outcomes across all treatments; however, the strongest impact of 0.20 standard deviation is observed for SAM+Cam. The evaluation also finds a small positive impact on the effort of affected teachers for SAM+Cam and SAM, and significant positive improvements on parental educational investments in all treatments. For SAM and SAM+Cam, additional data were collected in the second year (one year after project facilitators left). The findings show that SAM+Cam’s impacts on learning outcomes and parental investments—but not teacher effort —persisted into the second year.
    Keywords: Educational Sciences,Social Accountability,Democratic Government,De Facto Governments,Public Sector Administrative and Civil Service Reform,Public Sector Administrative&Civil Service Reform,Administrative&Civil Service Reform,Effective Schools and Teachers,Educational Institutions&Facilities
    Date: 2021–08–10
  93. By: Guo,Si; Pei,Yun; Xie,Leiyu
    Abstract: This paper develops a dynamic infinite-horizon model with two layers of governments tostudy theoretically and quantitatively how fiscal decentralization affects local and central government debtaccumulation and spending. In the model, the central government makes transfers to local governments to offsetvertical and horizontal fiscal imbalances. But the anticipation of transfers lowers local governments’ expectedcost of borrowing and leads to overborrowing ex ante. Absent commitment, the central government over-transfers to reducelocal governments’ future need to borrow, and in the equilibrium both local and central debts are inefficientlyhigh. Consistent with empirical evidence, when fiscal decentralization widens vertical fiscal imbalances, localgovernments become more reliant on transfers, and both local and central debts rise. Applied to Spain, the model explains39 percent of the rise in total government debt when the vertical fiscal imbalances widened during 1988–1996, and 18percent of the fall in debt when the imbalances narrowed during 1996–2006.
    Keywords: Democratic Government,Public Sector Administrative and Civil Service Reform,Public Sector Administrative & Civil Service Reform,De Facto Governments,Economic Adjustment and Lending,Public Finance Decentralization and Poverty Reduction,Public Sector Economics,Macro-Fiscal Policy,Financial Sector Policy,Public Financial Management
    Date: 2022–02–07
  94. By: Elias Einio; Josh Feng; Xavier Jaravel
    Abstract: Innovators are intrinsically-motivated individuals who use ideas to create new goods and services. This raises the possibility that their social backgrounds may affect the direction of their innovative activity. Consistent with this "social push" channel, we document that innovators create products that are more likely to be purchased by customers similar to them along observable dimensions including gender, age, and socioeconomic status, both across and within detailed industries. Next, we provide causal evidence that social experience affects the direction of a person's innovative activity. Specifically, being exposed to peers from a lower-income group increases an entrepreneur's propensity to create necessity products, without affecting her rates of entrepreneurship and entrepreneurial income. We incorporate this channel into a general equilibrium model to assess its implications for cost-of-living inequality and long-run growth when there is unequal access to the innovation system.
    Keywords: innovators social background, social push
    Date: 2022–07–13

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