nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2022‒08‒29
58 papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. The housing market in Russian cities and housing construction in 2021 By Malginov Georgiy; Sternik Sergey; Kulakov K.
  2. Mortgage-Rate-Adjusted Home Prices By Honggao Cao
  3. Heterogeneous effects and spillovers of macroprudential policy in an agent-based model of the UK housing market By Adrián Carro; Marc Hinterschweiger; Arzu Uluc; J. Doyne Farmer
  4. The gasoline price and the commuting behavior: Towards sustainable modes of transport By Belloc, Ignacio; Giménez-Nadal, José Ignacio; Molina, José Alberto
  5. The Effects of Teacher Quality on Adult Criminal Justice Contact By Evan K. Rose; Jonathan T. Schellenberg; Yotam Shem-Tov
  6. Ticket to Paradise? The Effect of a Public Transport Subsidy on Air Quality By Niklas Gohl; Philipp Schrauth
  7. Flow of Ideas: Economic Societies and the Rise of Useful Knowledge By Francesco Cinnirella; Erik Hornung; Julius Koschnick
  8. Eviction and Poverty in American Cities By Winnie van Dijk; Robert Collinson; John Eric Humphries; Nicholas Mader; Davin Reed; Daniel Tannenbaum
  9. Russia’s municipal and sub-federal debt market in 2020 By Shadrin Artem
  10. Genetic and Socioeconomic Achievement Gaps in Elementary School By Houmark, Mikkel Aagaard; Ronda, Victor; Agerbo, Esben; Mortensen, Preben Bo; Rosholm, Michael
  11. The Effect of Diesel Tax Rates on the Daily Commuting of US Workers: An Effective Instrument to Promote Sustainable Mobility? By Belloc, Ignacio; Gimenez-Nadal, J. Ignacio; Molina, José Alberto
  12. Home-made blues: Residential crowding and mental health in Beijing, China By Xize Wang; Tao Liu
  13. The Impact of Upzoning on Housing Construction in Auckland By Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy; Peter C. B. Phillips
  14. Adjustment costs and factor demand: new evidence from firms' real estate By Bergeaud, Antonin; Ray, Simon
  15. Gendered Teacher Feedback, Students' Math Performance and Enrollment Outcomes: A Text Mining Approach By Pauline Charousset; Marion Monnet
  16. Incentive Systems for New Mobility Services to Reduce Congestion By Ghafelebashi, Ali; Razaviyayn, Meisam; Dessouky, Maged
  17. Peer Effects and Endogenous Social Interactions By Jochmans, Koen
  18. Bootstrapping Science? The Impact of a “Return Human Capital” Programme on Chinese Research Productivity By Ash, Elliott; Cai, David; Draca, Mirko; Liu, Shaoyu
  19. Regional Structural Change and the Effects of Job Loss By Arntz, Melanie; Ivanov, Boris; Pohlan, Laura
  20. Expecting Floods: Firm Entry, Employment, and Aggregate Implications By Ruixue Jia; Xiao Ma; Victoria Wenxin Xie
  21. Information Design for Vehicle-to-Vehicle Communication By Brendan T. Gould; Philip N. Brown
  22. Spatial equity and high speed trains: the example of France By Dominique Bouf; Christian Desmaris
  23. The regional green potential of the European innovation system By SBARDELLA Angelica; BARBIERI Nicolò; CONSOLI Davide; NAPOLITANO Lorenzo; PERRUCHAS François; PUGLIESE Emanuele
  24. Can Rebates Foster Equity in Congestion Pricing Programs? By Sallee, James M.; Tarduno, Matthew A.
  25. Preferences of Minority Farmers for Urban Agriculture and Learning Resources: A Case of Maryland. By Karki, Lila B.; Bhandari, Prem B.
  26. Mortgage securitization and information frictions in general equilibrium By Salomón García
  27. Flood Risk Perception and its Impact on Land Prices in Japan By Yoshiyasu Koide; Kenji Nishizaki; Nao Sudo
  28. How does persecution affect who migrates? We analyze migrants’ self-selection out of the USSR and its satellite states before and after the collapse of Communism using census microdata from the three largest destination countries: Germany, Israel, and the United States. We find that migrants arriving before and around the time of the collapse (who were more likely to have moved because of persecution) were more educated and had better labor market outcomes in the destination than those arriving later. This change is not fully explained by the removal of emigration restrictions in the Communist Bloc. Instead, we show that this pattern is consistent with more positive self-selection of migrants who are motivated by persecution. When the highly educated disproportionately forgo migrating to enjoy the amenities of their home country, persecution can induce them to leave. By Ran Abramitzky; Travis Baseler; Isabelle Sin
  29. Home computer ownership and educational outcomes of adolescents in Greece By Djinovic, Vladana; Giannakopoulos, Nicholas
  30. PERSECUTION, POGROMS AND GENOCIDE: A Conceptual Framework and New Evidence By Sascha O. Becker; Sharun Mukand; Ivan Yotzov
  31. The Social Construction of Ignorance: Experimental Evidence By Ivan Soraperra; Joël van der Weele; Marie Claire Villeval; Shaul Shalvi
  32. Water Quality and Hedonic Models: A MetaAnalysis of Commodity, Market, and Methodological Characteristics By Matthew T. Heberling; Dennis Guignet; Michael Papenfus
  33. Extreme cold and local inequality: Evidence from Peruvian Highlands By Chakraborty, Judhajit; Lakdawala, Leah; Nakasone, Eduardo
  34. A Long-run Transition of Japan's Inter-regional Value Chains By OKUBO Toshihiro; SASAHARA Akira
  35. Migration in Russia in 2021 By Mkrtchian Nikita; Florinskaya Yulia
  36. Does Environmental Quality Affect Education? Evidence from air quality and school attendance in the United States By Aziz, Mustahsin; Elbakidze, Levan
  37. Effects of Extending Paid Parental Leave on Children’s Socio-Emotional Skills and Well-Being in Adolescence By Miriam Gensowski; Mikkel Aagaard Houmark; Cecilie Marie Løchte Jørgensen; Ida Lykke Kristiansen
  38. Political Identity and Foreign Aid Efficacy : Evidence from Pakistani Schools By Nasim, Sanval; Stegmann, Andreas
  39. The Potential of Wi-Fi Data to Estimate Bus Passenger Mobility By Léa Fabre; Caroline Bayart; Patrick Bonnel; Nicolas Mony
  40. Georgian railway's experiences with belt and road initiative: Advantages and disadvantages By Gondauri, Davit
  41. Contagion as a Dealmaker? The Effect of Financial Spillovers on Regional Lending Programs By Alexandra Fotiou; Alica Ida Bonk; Georgios Manalis
  42. Education system in Russia in 2021 By Klyachko Tatiana
  43. Turning the Tide: Demographic Developments in New Brunswick, 1951-2020 By Nettie Bonsall
  44. The Real State: Inside the Congo's Traffic Police Agency By Raúl Sanchez de la Sierra; Kristof Titeca; Haoyang (Stan) Xie; Albert Malukisa Nkuku; Aimable Amani Lameke
  45. Schooling and Labor Market Consequences of School Construction in Indonesia: Comment By David Roodman
  46. Confined to Stay: Natural Disasters and Indonesia's Migration Ban By Andrea Cinque; Lennart Reiners
  47. Homelessness Is Socially Created: Cluster Analysis of Social Determinants of Homelessness (SODH) in North West England in 2020 By Mzwandile Mabhala; Winifred Adaobi Esealuka; Amanda Nkolika Nwufo; Chinwe Enyinna; Chelsea Nonkosi Mabhala; Treasure Udechukwu; John Reid; Asmait Yohannes
  48. Spatial Econometrics for Misaligned Data By Guillaume Allaire Pouliot
  49. The value of travel time unreliability By Zhaoqi Zang; Richard Batley; Xiangdong Xu; Anthony Chen; David Z. W. Wang
  50. Strategic differences between regional investments into graphene technology and how corporations and universities manage patent portfolios By Ai Linh Nguyen; Wenyuan Liu; Khiam Aik Khor; Andrea Nanetti; Siew Ann Cheong
  51. Ownership Networks and Earnings Inequality By Federico Huneeus; Borja Larrain; Mauricio Larrain; Mounu Prem
  52. Female migrants and online market participation in rural Southeast Asia By Trung Thanh Nguyen; Manh Hung Do
  53. Rainfall shocks and adolescent school-work transition: Evidence from rural South Africa By Sen, Kritika; Villa, Kira M.
  54. Can Machine Learning Predict Defaults in Peer-to-Peer Small Loans? By Muriuki, James M.; Badruddoza, Syed; Fuad, Syed M.
  55. Forced migration and food crises By Federico Carril-Caccia; Jordi Paniagua; Marta Suárez-Varela
  56. News and Noise in Crime Politics: The Role of Announcements and Risk Attitudes By Wolfgang Maennig; Stefan Wilhelm
  57. Russia’s transportation industry in 2021 By Ponomarev Yuri; Borzykh Ksenia; Aliev S.
  58. Effects of internal migration on labour market behaviour of families left-behind in Vietnam By David Granada Donato

  1. By: Malginov Georgiy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sternik Sergey (Moscow State University of Civil Engineering); Kulakov K. (Financial University)
    Abstract: In 2021, the situation on the Russian real estate market was mainly affected by factors that emerged in the initial period of the COVID-19 pandemic (state- subsidized mortgages, increased state support for developers) and trends that commenced to form in previous years (the expansion of the individual housing construction (IHC) segment as an alternative to blocks of flats (BF)). The growth of real disposable household income by more than 3%, while the government supported the industry and offered preferential mortgages, contributed to high demand for housing, especially in H1 2021. The desire to preserve family capital amid the record inflation rate (8.4%) and rising prices for all types of real estate encouraged Russians to be active on the housing market. In H2 2021, there was a decline in interest in mortgages. Housing lending commenced to shrink on the back of the gradual increase of the Bank of Russia key rate 8.5% by the end of the year against 4.25% at the beginning of the year. In addition, trends in the primary housing market were shaped by an increase in the cost of building materials and land, labor shortages, as well as the tightening of the program of concessional mortgage lending.
    Keywords: Russian economy, residential property prices, housing market, housing construction
    JEL: K11 H82 L32 L33
    Date: 2022
  2. By: Honggao Cao
    Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the impact of mortgage rates on home prices, and how the impact may be used to help property purchase discussions at individual buyer level and to adjust home price indices across time. A mortgage-rate-adjusted "effective price" is derived to measure near term property price in the presence of (expected) mortgage rate changes. A price-mortgage rate neutrality line is then constructed based on the "effective price" to help differentiate various market scenarios in the near term, which can be used by prospective buyers in their "to-buy or not-to-buy" deliberations. At the market level, effective home prices allow for neutralization of mortgage rates on the movement of the housing market. An application of the neutralization strategy to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (HPI) indicates that the U.S. housing market has been considerably affected by the dynamics of mortgage rates in a long run. But mortgage rates do no appear a primary driver of the extraordinary home price increase during the COVID-19 pandemic.
    Date: 2022–07
  3. By: Adrián Carro (Banco de España and University of Oxford); Marc Hinterschweiger (Bank of England); Arzu Uluc (Bank of England); J. Doyne Farmer (University of Oxford and Santa Fe Institute (New Mexico))
    Abstract: We develop an agent-based model of the UK housing market to study the impact of macroprudential policy experiments on key housing market indicators. The heterogeneous nature of this model enables us to assess the effects of such experiments on the housing, rental and mortgage markets not only in the aggregate, but also at the level of individual households and sub-segments, such as first-time buyers, homeowners, buy-to-let investors, and renters. This approach can therefore offer a broad picture of the disaggregated effects of financial stability policies. The model is calibrated using a large selection of micro-data, including data from a leading UK real estate online search engine as well as loan-level regulatory data. With a series of comparative statics exercises, we investigate the impact of: i) a hard loan-to-value limit, and ii) a soft loan-to-income limit, allowing for a limited share of unconstrained new mortgages. We find that, first, these experiments tend to mitigate the house price cycle by reducing credit availability and therefore leverage. Second, an experiment targeting a specific risk measure may also affect other risk metrics, thus necessitating a careful calibration of the policy to achieve a given reduction in risk. Third, experiments targeting the owner-occupier housing market can spill over to the rental sector, as a compositional shift in home ownership from owner-occupiers to buy-to-let investors affects both the supply of and demand for rental properties.
    Keywords: agent-based modelling, housing market, rental market, macroprudential policy, borrower-based measures
    JEL: D1 D31 E58 G51 R21 R31
    Date: 2022–05
  4. By: Belloc, Ignacio; Giménez-Nadal, José Ignacio; Molina, José Alberto
    Abstract: This paper analyzes how gasoline price is related to the time workers in the US spend commuting by private vehicle, public transport, walking, or cycling. Using data from the American Time Use Survey for the years 2003-2019, and collecting data on gasoline price by state and year, we find that higher gasoline prices are related to less commuting by private car, and more commuting by public transport, walking, and cycling, the latter being transportation alternatives that are more eco-friendly. A 1% increase in gas prices is associated with an increase of 0.325%, 0.568% and 0.129% in the commuting time by public and physical modes (walking and cycling), respectively. By contrast, a decrease of 0.638% is found in the proportion of commuting done by private car. Furthermore, the elasticity differs by urban characteristics, showing relatively larger values in urban areas for private and public modes. By analyzing the relationship between commuting time, and gasoline prices in the US, our results may serve to inform future policies aiming to develop a low-carbon transport system, especially in urban areas where workers may be more affected by gasoline prices (and thus taxation).
    Keywords: commuting time,gasoline price,commuting mode,urban areas,American Time Use Survey
    JEL: R40 J1 J22 D1 Q4 R4
    Date: 2022
  5. By: Evan K. Rose; Jonathan T. Schellenberg; Yotam Shem-Tov
    Abstract: This paper estimates teachers' impacts on their students' future criminal justice contact (CJC). Using a unique data set linking the universe of North Carolina public school data to administrative arrest records, we find a standard deviation of teacher effects on students' future arrests of 2.7 percentage points (11% of the sample mean). Teachers' effects on CJC are orthogonal to their effects on academic achievement, implying assignment to a high test score value-added teacher does not reduce future CJC. However, teachers who reduce suspensions and improve attendance substantially reduce future arrests. Similar patterns emerge when allowing teacher impacts to vary by student sex, race, socio-economic status, and school. The results suggest that the development of non-cognitive skills is central to the returns to education for crime and highlight an important dimension of teachers' social value missed by test score-based quality metrics.
    JEL: I20 I26 J24
    Date: 2022–07
  6. By: Niklas Gohl (University of Potsdam, DIW Berlin, Berlin School of Economics); Philipp Schrauth (University of Potsdam)
    Abstract: This paper provides novel evidence on the impact of public transport subsidies on air pollution. We obtain causal estimates by leveraging a unique policy intervention in Germany that temporarily reduced nationwide prices for regional public transport to a monthly flat rate price of 9 Euros. Us-ing DiD estimation strategies on air pollutant data, we show that this intervention causally reduced a benchmark air pollution index by more than six percent. Our results illustrate that public transport subsidies – especially in the context of spatially constrained cities – offer a viable alterna-tive for policymakers and city planers to improve air quality, which has been shown to crucially affect health outcomes.
    Keywords: air pollution, public transport, transport subsidies
    JEL: Q53 Q58 R12 R48
    Date: 2022–08
  7. By: Francesco Cinnirella; Erik Hornung; Julius Koschnick
    Abstract: Economic societies emerged during the late eighteenth-century. We argue that these institutions reduced the costs of accessing useful knowledge by adopting, producing, and diffusing new ideas. Combining location information for the universe of 3,300 members across active economic societies in Germany with those of patent holders and World’s Fair exhibitors, we show that regions with more members were more innovative in the late nineteenth-century. This long-lasting effect of societies arguably arose through agglomeration economies and localized knowledge spillovers. To support this claim, we provide evidence suggesting an immediate increase in manufacturing, an earlier establishment of vocational schools, and a higher density of highly skilled mechanical workers by mid-nineteenth century in regions with more members. We also show that regions with members from the same society had higher similarity in patenting, suggesting that social networks facilitated spatial knowledge diffusion and, to some extent, shaped the geography of innovation.
    Keywords: economic societies, useful knowledge, knowledge diffusion, innovation, social networks
    JEL: N33 O33 O31 O43
    Date: 2022
  8. By: Winnie van Dijk (The University of Chicago); Robert Collinson (University of Notre Dame); John Eric Humphries (Yale University); Nicholas Mader; Davin Reed; Daniel Tannenbaum
    Abstract: More than two million U.S. households have an eviction case filed against them each year. Policymakers at the federal, state, and local levels are increasingly pursuing policies to reduce the number of evictions, citing harm to tenants and high public expenditures related to homelessness. We study the consequences of eviction for tenants using newly linked administrative data from two large cities. We document that prior to housing court, tenants experience declines in earnings and employment and increases in financial distress and hospital visits. These pre-trends are more pronounced for tenants who are evicted, which poses a challenge for disentangling correlation and causation. To address this problem, we use an instrumental variables approach based on cases randomly assigned to judges of varying leniency. We find that an eviction order increases homelessness, and reduces earnings, durable consumption, and access to credit. Effects on housing and labor market outcomes are driven by impacts for female and Black tenants.
    Keywords: eviction, homelessness, poverty, tenant protections, rental housing markets
    JEL: J01 H00 I30
  9. By: Shadrin Artem (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: In 2021, budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation were consolidated with a surplus to the tune of Rb604.7 bn, budgets of municipal districts and urban okrugs with a surplus of Rb29.2 bn, budgets of inner urban municipalities of federal cities with a surplus of Rb0.2 bn, budgets of municipal areas - a surplus of Rb21.4 bn, budgets of urban settlements — a surplus of Rb2.5 bn, budgets of rural settlements — a surplus of Rb2.8 bn, budgets of territorial government extrabudgetary funds — a surplus of Rb18.0 bn.
    Keywords: Russian economy, regional and municipal finances, loan market, debt market
    JEL: H71 H72 H74 H76
    Date: 2022
  10. By: Houmark, Mikkel Aagaard (Aarhus University); Ronda, Victor (Aarhus University); Agerbo, Esben (Aarhus University); Mortensen, Preben Bo (Aarhus University); Rosholm, Michael (Aarhus University)
    Abstract: Socioeconomic (SES) gaps in academic achievement are well documented. We show that a very similar gap exists with respect to genetic differences measured by a polygenic score (PGS) for educational attainment. The genetic gap increases during elementary school, but only among the low SES children. Consequently, the high PGS children experience the largest achievement growth over the school years, even if they are born in socioeconomic disadvantage. While the SES gaps are partly due to selection into different environments, the high PGS children are simply better at extracting resources from a given environment because of higher conscientiousness and other predispositions.
    Keywords: child development, academic achievement, genetics, ses gaps, elementary schools, public investments, iPSYCH
    JEL: D10 I24 I26 J24
    Date: 2022–07
  11. By: Belloc, Ignacio (University of Zaragoza); Gimenez-Nadal, J. Ignacio (University of Zaragoza); Molina, José Alberto (University of Zaragoza)
    Abstract: In this paper, we analyze whether diesel fuel taxes can be an effective tool to boost the daily commuting of US workers towards the use of green modes of transport. To that end, we use data from the American Time Use Survey 2003-2019 and explore the factors influencing commuting time and the proportion of commute using alternative modes of transport, including walking and cycling. Our results indicate that diesel fuel taxes are linked to a reduction in the total time devoted to commuting, and to the proportion of commuting by private car, and to an increase in the proportion of commuting done by green modes of transport such as public transport and walking. This relationship is not homogeneous in the urban dimension, as the effects on total commuting time and the percentage of commuting by public transport is present in urban areas only. In a context where many countries are implementing policies aimed at increasing the use of sustainable modes of personal mobility, our results indicate that taxing fuels used for personal mobility may be an efficient way to decrease the use of more polluting modes of transport and encourage more eco-friendly alternatives while commuting.
    Keywords: commuting time, green mobility, state diesel taxes, American Time Use Survey
    JEL: D1 Q4 R4
    Date: 2022–07
  12. By: Xize Wang (National University of Singapore); Tao Liu (Peking University)
    Abstract: Although residential crowding has many well-being implications, its connection to mental health is yet to be widely examined. Using survey data from 1613 residents in Beijing, China, we find that living in a crowded place - measured by both square metres per person and persons per bedroom - is significantly associated with a higher risk of depression. We test for the mechanisms of such associations and find that the residential crowding-depression link arises through increased living space-specific stress rather than increased life stress. We also identify the following subgroups that have relatively stronger residential crowding-depression associations: females, those living with children, those not living with parents, and those living in non-market housing units. Our findings show that inequality in living space among urban residents not only is an important social justice issue but also has health implications.
    Date: 2022–07
  13. By: Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy (University of Auckland); Peter C. B. Phillips (Cowles Foundation, Yale University, University of Auckland, Singapore Management University, University of Southampton)
    Abstract: There is a growing debate about whether upzoning is an effective policy response to housing shortages and unaffordable housing. This paper provides empirical evidence to further inform debate by examining the various impacts of recently implemented zoning reforms on housing construction in Auckland, the largest metropolitan area in New Zealand. In 2016, the city up zoned approximately three quarters of its inner suburban land to facilitate construction of more intensive housing. We use a quasi-experimental approach to analyze the short-run impacts of the reform on construction, allowing for potential shifts in construction from non-upzoned to upzoned areas (negative spillovers) that would, if unaccounted for, lead to an overestimation of treatment effects. We find strong evidence that upzoning stimulated construction. Treatment effects remain statistically significant even under implausibly large spillovers that would necessi tate a six-fold increase in the trend rate of construction in control areas under the counterfactual of no-upzoning. Our findings support the argument that upzoning can stimulate housing supply and suggest that further work to identify factors that mediate the efficacy of upzoning in achiev ing wider objectives of the policy would assist policymakers in the design of zoning reforms in the future.
    Keywords: Upzoning, Land Use Regulations, Redevelopment, Housing Construction, Housing Affordability
    JEL: R14 R31 R52
    Date: 2022–05
  14. By: Bergeaud, Antonin; Ray, Simon
    Abstract: We study corporate real estate frictions and their effect on firm dynamics and labour demand. We build and simulate a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms that predicts the response of firms to a productivity shock in the presence of fixed adjustment costs on real estate. Using a large firm-level database merged with local real estate prices, we then exploit variations in the tax on capital gains to document a causal effect of adjustment costs on firms' labour demand and derive new results on the causes and implications of firms' local relocation.
    JEL: D21 H25 J21 O52
    Date: 2021–01–01
  15. By: Pauline Charousset (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Marion Monnet (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques)
    Abstract: This paper studies how student gender influences the feedback given by teachers, and how this affects the student's performance in school. Using the written feedback provided to the universe of French high school students by their math teachers over a five-year period, we show that teachers use different words to assess the performance of equally able male and female students. Teachers highlight the positive behavior and encourage the efforts of their female students while, for similarly-performing males, they criticize the students for unruly behavior and praise them for their intellectual skills. To understand how this relates to the student's subsequent educational outcomes, we then match these data to records from French national examinations, as well as these students' higher education application behavior and ultimate institution of enrollment. Using the quasi-random allocation of teachers to classes, we estimate that being assigned to a teacher with feedback that is one standard deviation more gendered improves student math performance by 1.6 percent of a standard deviation on average, but does not affect students' enrollment in higher education in the following year.
    Keywords: teacher feedback,text mining,gender,student performance,higher education
    Date: 2022–07
  16. By: Ghafelebashi, Ali; Razaviyayn, Meisam; Dessouky, Maged
    Abstract: With rapid population growth and urban development, traffic congestion has become an inescapable issue. Future mobility services may offer a new and very effective opportunity to incentivize congestion-reducing behavior. Ridesourcing, food delivery, and package delivery companies make decisions that directly or indirectly affect routing for an increasing number of drivers. These organizations have more flexibility and more power to affect traffic, and targeting them with incentives may be more efficient than incentivizing individual drivers. Motivated by this idea, researchers at the University of Southern California developed a distributed algorithm for offering incentives to organizations to make socially optimal routing decisions. The algorithm is designed to lower the traffic flow of congested roads without creating new congestion in other parts of the road network. This policy brief summarizes the findings from that research and provides research implications. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Behavior, Drivers, Incentives, Optimization, Organizations, Ridesourcing, Travel demand management, Travel time
    Date: 2022–08–01
  17. By: Jochmans, Koen
    Abstract: This paper proposes a solution to the problem of the self-selection of peers in the linear-in-means model. We do not require to specify a model for how the selection of peers comes about. Rather, we exploit two restrictions that are inherent in many such specifications to construct conditional moment conditions. The restrictions in question are that link decisions that involve a given individual are not all independent of one another, but that they are independent of the link decisions made between other pairs of individuals that are located sufficiently far away in the network. These conditions imply that instrumental variables can be constructed from leave-own-out networks.
    Keywords: instrumental variable; linear-in-means model; network; self-selection
    JEL: C31 C36
    Date: 2022–07–25
  18. By: Ash, Elliott (ETH Zurich); Cai, David (ETH Zurich); Draca, Mirko (University of Warwick, CAGE); Liu, Shaoyu (Columbia University)
    Abstract: We study the impact of a large-scale scientist recruitment program – China’s Junior Thousand Talents Plan (青年千人计划) – on the productivity of recruited scholars and their local peers in Chinese host universities. Using a comprehensive dataset of published scientific articles, we estimate effects on quantity and quality in a matched difference-in-differences framework. We observe neutral direct productivity effects for participants over a 6-year post-period: an initial drop is followed by a fully offsetting recovery. However, the program participants collaborate at higher rates with more junior China-based co-authors at their host institutions. Looking to peers in the hosting department, we observe positive and rising productivity impacts for peer scholars, equivalent to approximately 0.6 of a publication per peer scholar in the long-run. Heterogeneity analysis and the absence of correlated resource effects point to the peer effect being rooted in a knowledge spillover mechanism.
    Date: 2022
  19. By: Arntz, Melanie (ZEW Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research ; University of Heidelberg); Ivanov, Boris (ZEW Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research ; University of Heidelberg); Pohlan, Laura (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; IZA ; LASER ; ZEW)
    Abstract: "Routine-intensive occupations have been declining in many countries, but how does this affect individual workers’ careers if this decline is particularly severe in their local labor market? This paper uses administrative data from Germany and a matched difference-in-differences approach to show that the individual costs of job loss strongly depend on the task-bias of regional structural change. Workers displaced from routine manual occupations have substantially higher and more persistent employment and wage losses in regions where such occupations decline the most. Regional and occupational mobility partly serve as an adjustment mechanism, but come at high cost as these switches also involve losses in firm wage premia. Non-displaced workers, by contrast, remain largely unaffected by structural change." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    Keywords: Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Westdeutschland ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Auswirkungen ; berufliche Mobilität ; Berufsgruppe ; Berufsverlauf ; Beschäftigungseffekte ; Betriebsstilllegung ; Einkommenseffekte ; IAB-Beschäftigtenhistorik ; IAB-Betriebs-Historik-Panel ; Massenentlassungen ; regionale Mobilität ; regionaler Arbeitsmarkt ; Routine ; technischer Wandel ; Arbeitslosigkeit ; Wirtschaftsstrukturwandel ; 1990-2010
    JEL: J24 J63 J64 J65 O33 R11
    Date: 2022–08–01
  20. By: Ruixue Jia; Xiao Ma; Victoria Wenxin Xie
    Abstract: Flood events and flood risk have been increasing in the past few decades and have important consequences for the economy. Using county-level and ZIP-code-level data from the United States during 1998–2018, we document that (1) increased flood risk has a large negative impact on firm entry, employment, and output in the long run; and (2) flood events reduce output in the short run while their impact on firm entry and employment is limited. Motivated by these findings, we construct a spatial equilibrium model to characterize how flood risk shapes firms’ location choices and workers’ employment, which we use to estimate the aggregate impact of increased flood risk on the economy. We find that flood risk reduced U.S. aggregate output by 0.52% in 2018, 80% of which stemmed from expectation effects and 20% from direct damages. We also apply our model to study the distributional consequences and forecast the impact of future changes in flood risk. Our results highlight the importance of considering the adjustment of firms and workers in response to risk in evaluating the consequences of natural disasters.
    JEL: F64 Q54 Q56 R11 R13
    Date: 2022–07
  21. By: Brendan T. Gould; Philip N. Brown
    Abstract: The emerging technology of Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) communication over vehicular ad hoc networks promises to improve road safety by allowing vehicles to autonomously warn each other of road hazards. However, research on other transportation information systems has shown that informing only a subset of drivers of road conditions may have a perverse effect of increasing congestion. In the context of a simple (yet novel) model of V2V hazard information sharing, we ask whether partial adoption of this technology can similarly lead to undesirable outcomes. In our model, drivers individually choose how recklessly to behave as a function of information received from other V2V-enabled cars, and the resulting aggregate behavior influences the likelihood of accidents (and thus the information propagated by the vehicular network). We fully characterize the game-theoretic equilibria of this model using our new equilibrium concept. Our model indicates that for a wide range of the parameter space, V2V information sharing surprisingly increases the equilibrium frequency of accidents relative to no V2V information sharing, and that it may increase equilibrium social cost as well.
    Date: 2022–07
  22. By: Dominique Bouf (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Christian Desmaris (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon - Université de Lyon)
    Abstract: This paper is aiming at qualifying the high speed trains in operation in France, with regards to spatial equity. To that end we begin by examining some of the various concepts enclosed in this polysemic word. Increased accessibility was one objective of the development of high speed rail. Thus we estimate a simple model to measure the possible effect of high speed rail on French regions. We did find a positive effect on GDP per capita and demographic growth. In a sense this is because they are growth-promoting that High speed lines are unfair. Beyond that, the pricing system set up by the train operator is based on yield management and intermodal competition. This results in a peculiar and singularly unfair pricing structure.
    Keywords: spatial equity,high speed trains,high speed rail,pricing system,French regions,France
    Date: 2020–07–20
  23. By: SBARDELLA Angelica; BARBIERI Nicolò; CONSOLI Davide; NAPOLITANO Lorenzo (European Commission - JRC); PERRUCHAS François; PUGLIESE Emanuele (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: The brief provides an overview of green technological development across European regions employing the Economic Fitness Complexity approach to establish a green technology space. The study explores the associations between comparative advantage in specific technological domains and a region’s capacity to develop green technologies, i.e. its Green Fitness. Furthermore, it addresses the interaction between the green and non-green knowledge bases, with a particular focus on whether regional know-how in the non-green technological realm can be exploited in the green domain and vice versa. To this aim, a metric of regional Green Potential is proposed. The analysis suggests that regions specialised in green domains, irrespective of their complexity, have a higher propensity to develop technologies connected with green technologies. Green technologies are linked mostly to technologies related to the production or transformation of materials; with engines and pumps; and with construction methods. The regions with the highest Green Potential are not necessarily those with the highest Green Fitness. The results suggest that there is a potential for green and non-green technological advances to generate positive spillovers in terms of capabilities to produce innovations across the spectrum of technological complexity.
    Keywords: Green Deal, Economic Complexity, Green Capabilities, Regional Green Potential
    Date: 2022–05
  24. By: Sallee, James M.; Tarduno, Matthew A.
    Abstract: Congestion pricing improves economic efficiency, but it may lead to inequitable outcomes. A key policy priority in California is identifying ways to avoid the hardship of congestion pricing on low income or other vulnerable populations. This study uses data from a congestion pricing experiment in the Seattle metro area to examine the feasibility of using revenue from congestion pricing to compensate those harmed by the policy. Results indicate that the initial burden of congestion pricing is highly inequitable, with the lowest income drivers paying an average of 7 percent of their weekly income in congestion charges. There are also considerable differences in burdens within income groups. We show that policymakers face a tradeoff in ameliorating these two types of unequal burdens. Returning an equal fraction of the toll revenue to all drivers can make a policy progressive on average, but doing so leaves many drivers either overcompensated or under-compensated. We then show that while compensation packages based on basic demographic information could improve targeting, many low-income drivers would be left with large proportional burdens because of the fundamental difficulty in predicting individual-level tax burdens. Survey data on travel behavior from Seattle and California metro areas show that the difficulty of designing equitable transfers would be similar in the California metro areas most likely to consider adopting some form of congestion pricing.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Congestion pricing, low income groups, social equity, vehicle miles of travel, travel behavior, incentives, traffic data
    Date: 2022–08–01
  25. By: Karki, Lila B.; Bhandari, Prem B.
    Keywords: Teaching, Communication, and Extension, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Marketing
    Date: 2022–08
  26. By: Salomón García (Banco de España)
    Abstract: I develop a macro model of the U.S. housing finance system that delivers an equilibrium connection between the securitization and mortgage credit markets. An endogenous securitization market efficiently reallocates illiquid assets, increases liquidity to fund mortgage lending, and lowers interest rates for borrowers. However, its benefits are hindered by originators’ private information about loan quality which leads to adverse selection in securitization. Fluctuations in household credit risk induce expansion and contractions of mortgage credit through the securitization liquidity channel. Adverse selection generates a multiplier effect of household shocks. Applying the theory to the Great Financial Crisis, I quantify that information frictions amplified the observed mortgage credit contraction by a factor of 1.5. The multiplier is an endogenous function of the severity of information frictions. A subsidy policy in the securitization market can stabilize liquidity and credit cycles. However, the policy generates inefficiently high liquidity and fails to realize meaningful welfare gains for households.
    Keywords: securitization, banking, DSGE, private information, liquidity frictions
    JEL: D5 D82 G21 G28
    Date: 2022–06
  27. By: Yoshiyasu Koide (Bank of Japan); Kenji Nishizaki (Bank of Japan); Nao Sudo (Bank of Japan)
    Abstract: This paper estimates how flood risk perception affects land prices by making use of the granular geographical information of land prices, flood events collected in the Flood Statistics, and of flood risk captured in hazard maps in Japan. The estimates are conducted through two approaches, the hedonic approach and local projection, for the sampled sites that are selected from the viewpoint of avoiding potential omitted variable bias. Our main findings are threefold: (a) hazard map information affects land prices in a statistically significant manner. The effect is accompanied by a lag and its size varies depending on land use. (b) In addition to hazard map information, past flooding experiences affect land prices, suggesting the importance of the role played by the subjective flood risk perception formed through past flooding experiences. Indeed, in areas where large-scale flooding has occurred frequently in the past, hazard map information is reflected in the level of land prices to a greater degree and land prices are less susceptible to changes in hazard map information. (c) The estimated impact of flood risk on land prices based on the two approaches does not deviate significantly from the alternative measure of the impact of flood risk on land prices computed using the actual flood damage. However, the differences between the estimated impact and the alternative measure may become large for a certain type of flood risk and land use. Our results suggest that, in addition to the objective flood risk contained in, for example, hazard map, subjective perceptions of flood risk, such as those reflected in past flooding experiences, may also be important in land price formation.
    Keywords: Flood; Hazard maps; Land price; Hedonic approach; Local projection
    JEL: Q54 R30
    Date: 2022–07–28
  28. By: Ran Abramitzky (Stanford University); Travis Baseler (University of Rochester); Isabelle Sin (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)
    Keywords: refugee migration, persecution, migrant selection, Communist Bloc
    JEL: F22 J6 N30 N32 N34
    Date: 2022–07
  29. By: Djinovic, Vladana; Giannakopoulos, Nicholas
    Abstract: In this paper we investigate whether human capital accumulation, during adolescence, depends on home investments in Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) equipment. Using micro-level data, for children aged 17-18 years old, drawn from the Greek part of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EUSILC) for the period 2003-2019 we measure school dropout for individuals residing in households with and without access to home computer. We found that adolescents with access to ICT have better educational outcomes compared to their peers without access to such equipment (almost 5 percentage points lower probability of school dropout). These estimates are robust to different model specifications and data restrictions. Our results support the hypothesis that technology diffusion promotes educational outcomes and provides additional evidence regarding the formation of human capital during adolescence.
    Keywords: Education,Technology Diffusion,Human Capital
    JEL: I24 O33 J24
    Date: 2022
  30. By: Sascha O. Becker (Monash U and U Warwick, CAGE, CEHANU, CEPR, CESifo, CReAM, ifo, IZA, ROA, and SoDaLabs); Sharun Mukand (U Warwick and CAGE); Ivan Yotzov (U Warwick and CAGE)
    Abstract: Persecution, pogroms, and genocide have plagued humanity for centuries, costing millions of lives and haunting survivors. Economists and economic historians have recently made new contributions to the understanding of these phenomena. We provide a novel conceptual framework which highlights the inter-relationship between the intensity of persecution and migration patterns across dozens of historical episodes. Using this framework as a lens, we survey the growing literature on the causes and consequences of persecution, pogroms, and genocide. Finally, we discuss gaps in the literature and take several tentative steps towards explaining the differences in survival rates of European Jews in the 20th century.
    Keywords: Genocide, Persecution, Migration, Immigration restrictions, Exit or Voice
    JEL: D74 F22 F51 N4 O15 R23
    Date: 2022–08
  31. By: Ivan Soraperra; Joël van der Weele; Marie Claire Villeval (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Shaul Shalvi
    Abstract: We experimentally study the social transmission of "inconvenient" information about the externalities generated by one's own decision. In the laboratory, we pair uninformed decision makers with informed senders. Compared to a setting where subjects can choose their information directly, we find that social interactions increase selfish decisions. On the supply side, senders suppress almost 30 percent of "inconvenient" information, driven by their own preferences for information and their beliefs about the decision maker's preferences. On the demand side, about one-third of decision makers avoids senders who transmit inconvenient information ("shooting the messenger"), which leads to assortative matching between information-suppressing senders and information-avoiding decision makers. Having more control over information generates opposing effects on behavior: selfish decision makers remain ignorant more often and donate less, while altruistic decision makers seek out informative senders and give more. We discuss applications to information sharing in social networks and to organizational design.
    Keywords: Social interactions,information avoidance,assortative matching,ethical behavior
    Date: 2022–07–17
  32. By: Matthew T. Heberling; Dennis Guignet; Michael Papenfus
    Abstract: This study quantitatively reviews the hedonic literature examining surface water quality to assess how attributes of the commodity, housing market, and methodological choices affect the significance and expected sign of the estimated property value effects. Using meta analysis, we provide evidence that many of the definitions and decisions, including type of waterbody, water quality categories, and the region of the United States, made in primary studies do affect the estimated relationship between water quality and home prices. Methodological choices appear to have a critical role in determining the estimated relationships. Our findings can inform future hedonic study designs, help identify potential concerns with data and modeling choices, and guide decision-makers when considering what studies to use to inform management and policy decisions. Key Words: Water quality, Meta-analysis, Property value, Water pollution
    Date: 2022
  33. By: Chakraborty, Judhajit; Lakdawala, Leah; Nakasone, Eduardo
    Keywords: International Development, Community/Rural/Urban Development
    Date: 2022–08
  34. By: OKUBO Toshihiro; SASAHARA Akira
    Abstract: This paper examines the evolution of Japan’s inter-regional value chains using input-output tables from 1960 to 2005. We measure the degree of inter-regional production linkages based on various statistics including (1) the outsourcing index, (2) upstreamness, (3) downstreamness, and (4) empirical comparative advantages. The results show that, in most sectors, the expansion of inter-regional value chains slowed down after the 1990s, when imports from overseas started to increase rapidly. We also find that the value chains in the transport equipment sector have expanded exceptionally. This sectoral heterogeneity is confirmed by all the measures used in this study.
    Date: 2022–07
  35. By: Mkrtchian Nikita (RANEPA); Florinskaya Yulia (RANEPA)
    Abstract: After a sharp fall in 2020, Russia’s net migration in 2021 was the highest in recent years. According to the estimates based on the Rosstat’s operative information on the population, which decreased by 692,900 people in 2021, and on the natural population decline (in 2021 — 1,042.7 thousand people), the migration gain was 349,800 people. At the same time, according to the last published data for January-November 2021 the positive migration balance for 11 months already made up 371,400 people, and there is no reason to believe that there was a migration loss in December. Monthly dynamic of the index allows us to assume that the net migration will exceed 400,000 people. The reason for the discrepancy in these data is not clear. But no matter how Rosstat estimates the final results of migration gain for the year, it is obvious that its magnitude was extremely high in 2021.
    Keywords: Russian economy, migration, internal migration, temporary migration, long-term migration
    JEL: J61 J62
    Date: 2022
  36. By: Aziz, Mustahsin; Elbakidze, Levan
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Teaching, Communication, and Extension
    Date: 2022–08
  37. By: Miriam Gensowski (Københavns Universitet); Mikkel Aagaard Houmark; Cecilie Marie Løchte Jørgensen; Ida Lykke Kristiansen
    Abstract: We study how children’s socio-emotional skills and well-being in adolescence are affected by an increase in the duration of parental care during infancy. Ex- ploiting a Danish reform that extended paid parental leave in 2002 and effectively delayed children’s entry into formal out-of-home care, we show that longer leave increases adolescent well-being, conscientiousness and emotional stability, and reduces school absenteeism. The effects are strongest for children of mothers who would have taken short leave in absence of the reform. This highlights how time spent with a parent is particularly productive during very early childhood.
    Keywords: parental leave, early childhood, skill formation, parental investments, Socio- Emotional Skills, personality, well-being, Adolescence.
    JEL: J13 J18 J24 I31
  38. By: Nasim, Sanval (LUMS); Stegmann, Andreas (University of Warwick)
    Abstract: We conduct a field experiment to study whether concerns to preserve an anti-liberal self-image affect low cost, private school owners' willingness to explore a collaboration with a liberal Pakistani NGO. While explicitly revealing the NGO's liberal motivation to school owners has a significant impact on beliefs about the NGO's objectives, on average, we find only limited evidence that treated school owners are less willing to explore a collaboration with our partner NGO. However, heterogeneous treatment effects suggest that differences in political identity cause negative reactions among the minority of school owners expressing conservative beliefs during a seemingly unrelated follow-up survey.
    Keywords: Aid efficacy ; political identity JEL Classification: O20 ; P16 ; D03
    Date: 2022
  39. By: Léa Fabre (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, SAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon, Explain); Caroline Bayart (SAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon); Patrick Bonnel (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Nicolas Mony (Explain)
    Abstract: Using technologies such as Wi-Fi and Bluetooth allows to gather passive mobility data, useful for ensuring the sustainable development of transport infrastructures. The challenge of passive data collection is to be able to identify relevant data. Our research presents interesting solutions for sorting the transmitted signals and reconstructing quality Origin-Destination matrices. Its originality consists not only in comparing the results with those of other data sources, but also in proposing a methodology that can be reproduced. Thanks to a partitioning algorithm, it is possible to automatically distinguish passengers from non-passengers to get transit ridership flow and O-D matrices. The findings show that this algorithm provides concrete and replicable solutions to transport operators for understanding travel demand.
    Keywords: Travel behavior,passive tracking,data clustering,Wi-Fi/Bluetooth sensors,trajectory reconstruction,mobile devices data,data quality,Working Papers du LAET
    Date: 2022
  40. By: Gondauri, Davit
    Abstract: Georgia's railway network is a key segment of the TRACECA, the shortest route from the Caspian Sea and Central Asia to the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Basin. Georgian Railway Corridor has a number of advantages over pipeline, alternative railways and auto transport. Changing the quality of crude oil does not occur during rail transportation, no pipelines for oil products. The Russian rail routes have a competitive disadvantage compared to Georgia as Novorossiysk Port is typically frozen in winter and operations are frequently delayed. The Russian and Iranian routes are significantly longer than the Georgian route, which increases costs, risks, and transportation time. The railway route running through Iran is less attractive than the Georgian route due to the tense political relations between Iran and the West. Railway transportation is considered safer and more environmentally friendly than road transportation. Expensive bulk transportation - in cases of bulk transportation, the railway is considered cheaper than the road.
    Keywords: Georgian railway,BRI,TRACECA,EVA,CAGR,GDP
    Date: 2022
  41. By: Alexandra Fotiou; Alica Ida Bonk; Georgios Manalis
    Abstract: The recent European sovereign debt crisis highlighted the critical role of regional lending arrangements. For the first time, European mechanisms were called to design financing programmes for member countries in trouble. This paper analyses how the risk of contagion, an essential characteristic of interlinked economies, shapes borrowing conditions. We focus on the role of spillovers as a channel of bargaining power that a country might have when asking for financial support from regional lending institutions. We build and present a new database that records both the dates on which official meetings took place, relevant statements were released and the timing of the announcements regarding loan disbursements. This database allows us to assess the defining role that announcements of future actions have in mitigating spillover costs. In addition, we study the design of lending arrangements within a recursive contract between a lender and a sovereign country. When accounting for spillover costs, arising from the borrower to the creditor, we find that it is in the lender's best interest to back-load consumption by giving more weight to future transfers in order to reduce contagion cost. Subsequently, we test and validate our theoretical predictions by assessing the effect of spillovers on loan disbursements to programme-countries and by juxtaposing lending conditions imposed by the IMF and the European mechanisms.
    Keywords: Regional lending mechanisms; currency-union; spillovers
    Date: 2022–07–08
  42. By: Klyachko Tatiana (RANEPA)
    Abstract: In 2020, most school teachers, secondary vocational education instructors, lecturers of higher educational establishments (HEE), as well as learners believed that the pandemic would not last for long and, consequently, the adopted measures, including a shift to distance learning would be over soon. Late in 2020 and early in 2021, it became clear that the pandemic would continue for quite a long time and the existing approaches both to instruction and learning had to be adjusted. On one side, new technologies started to be utilized, while on the other side there was more comprehension of the existing resources being at the disposal of educational establishments, teachers and learners. Accordingly, the process of assessing shortages of technical equipment, skilled teachers and managers, as well as financial resources began.
    Keywords: Education system, general education, vocational education, distance learning, higher education
    JEL: I21 I22 I23 I24
    Date: 2022
  43. By: Nettie Bonsall
    Abstract: New Brunswick experienced virtually no population growth in the 17-year period from 1991 to 2007 after enjoying a 0.92 per cent average annual growth rate from 1951 to 1991. Since 2007, the tide has turned, and the population of the province is once again growing, averaging 0.36 per cent per year. The main driver of this development is gross immigration. After averaging less than 1,000 per year in the1972-2007 period, gross immigration rose to around 2,000 per year between 2008 and 2013 and then jumped to an annual average of around 4,000 in the 2014-2020 period. Net interprovincial migration also contributed to the turnaround, rising from an average annual loss of around 600 in the 1972-2007 period to an average annual gain of about 900 in the 2017-2020 period. The report provides a detailed analysis of these demographic developments at the level of the province, the 15 census divisions (counties), and the three census metropolitan areas and four census agglomerations.
    Keywords: New Brunswick, demographic development
    Date: 2021–10
  44. By: Raúl Sanchez de la Sierra; Kristof Titeca; Haoyang (Stan) Xie; Albert Malukisa Nkuku; Aimable Amani Lameke
    Abstract: We analyze the organization of corruption in a state agency. The dual mandate of the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s traffic police agency is to manage traffic and to enforce the traffic code. We first document that, in the capital’s branch, Kinshasa, traffic violation fines account for only 22% of the revenue of the branch. The remaining 78%, unofficial, comes from bribes paid by drivers, of which 63% is generated through a “quota scheme:” managers at police stations ask agents posted at street intersections to escort drivers to the stations, where the managers extract a bribe from the drivers. Experimentally decreasing the quota, hence mitigating its effect, we find that the quota scheme worsens the agency’s ability to fulfill its first mandate, while not improving its ability to fulfill the second. First, the quota causes 65% of all traffic jams and almost all accidents at the branch’s intersections. Second, we find evidence suggesting that it fuels false allegations against drivers—extortion—at a higher rate than it fuels true ones, consistent with the scheme not creating incentives to comply with the code. The findings emphasize that the manager’s demand for unofficial revenue is significant and creates profits and distortions beyond those that would be made possible via corruption by individual state officials.
    JEL: D23 D73 O1
    Date: 2022–07
  45. By: David Roodman
    Abstract: Duflo (2001) exploits a 1970s primary schooling expansion to estimate the returns to schooling in Indonesia. Under the study's difference-in-differences (DID) design, two patterns in the data--negative selection in treatment and shallower wage-schooling gradients for younger workers--can together bias results upward. In response, I follow-up later; test for trend breaks timed to the intervention; and perform changes-in-changes, which relaxes the parallel trends assumption. I also correct data errors, cluster variance estimates, incorporate endogenous survey weights, and test for (and detect) instrument weakness. Weak identification-robust inference yields weakly positive estimates. CIC yields weakly negative results.
    Date: 2022–07
  46. By: Andrea Cinque; Lennart Reiners
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of international migration restrictions on communities’ capacity to absorb income shocks after natural catastrophes. We adopt the implementation of an emigration ban on female Indonesians as a natural experiment. After an array of violent assaults against female servants in Saudi Arabia, the Indonesian government issued a moratorium in 2011, preventing millions of female workers to migrate there as domestic workers. Exploiting the exogenous timing of the ban and that of natural disasters allows us to estimate the causal effect of the absence of international migration as an adaptive strategy. Relying on a panel of the universe of Indonesian villages, we use a triple difference strategy to compare poverty levels in the aftermath of natural disasters for villages whose main destination is Saudi Arabia against others, before and after the policy shock. We find that in villages with strong ex-ante propensity to migrate to Saudi Arabia, poverty increases by 13% in face of natural disasters after the ban, further aggravating the already severe consequences induced by those events.
    Keywords: migration, natural disasters, Indonesia, migration ban
    JEL: F22 J61 Q54
    Date: 2022
  47. By: Mzwandile Mabhala (University of Chester); Winifred Adaobi Esealuka (University of Chester); Amanda Nkolika Nwufo (University of Chester); Chinwe Enyinna (University of Chester); Chelsea Nonkosi Mabhala (UEA - University of East Anglia [Norwich]); Treasure Udechukwu (EHESP - École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP]); John Reid (University of Chester); Asmait Yohannes
    Abstract: Poverty creates social conditions that increase the likelihood of homelessness. These include exposure to traumatic life experiences; social disadvantages such as poor educational experiences; being raised in a broken family, care homes or foster care; physical, emotional, and sexual abuse; and neglect at an early age. These conditions reduce people's ability to negotiate through life challenges. This cross-sectional study documents the clustering and frequency of adverse social conditions among 152 homeless people from four cities in North West England between January and August 2020. Two-step cluster analysis showed that having parents with a criminal record, care history, and child neglect/abuse history was predictive of homelessness. The cluster of indicator variables among homeless people included sexual abuse (χ2 (N = 152) = 220.684, p
    Keywords: Homelessness,Inequalities,Poverty,Two-step cluster analysis
    Date: 2021
  48. By: Guillaume Allaire Pouliot
    Abstract: We produce methodology for regression analysis when the geographic locations of the independent and dependent variables do not coincide, in which case we speak of misaligned data. We develop and investigate two complementary methods for regression analysis with misaligned data that circumvent the need to estimate or specify the covariance of the regression errors. We carry out a detailed reanalysis of Maccini and Yang (2009) and find economically significant quantitative differences but sustain most qualitative conclusions.
    Date: 2022–07
  49. By: Zhaoqi Zang; Richard Batley; Xiangdong Xu; Anthony Chen; David Z. W. Wang
    Abstract: Extensive empirical studies show that the long distribution tail of travel time and the corresponding unexpected delay can have much more serious consequences than expected or moderate delay. However, the unexpected delay due to the unreliable aspect of travel time has received limited attention in recent studies of the valuation of travel time variability. As a complement to current valuation research, this paper proposes the concept of the value of travel time unreliability (VOU), which quantifies the value that travelers place on reducing the unreliable aspect of travel time. Methodologically, we define the summation of all unexpected delays as the unreliability area to quantify travel time unreliability and show that it is a key element of two well defined measures accounting for travel time unreliability. Then, we derive the formulations of VOU and the value of travel time reliability (VOR) in the scheduling of a trip under uncertainty. To fully capture the reliable and unreliable aspects of travel time, the VOR and VOU are aggregated into what we define as the value of travel time variability (VOV). We theoretically prove that the VOV has a diminishing marginal effect in terms of the punctuality requirement of a traveler under a valid condition. This implies that it may be uneconomic to blindly pursue a higher punctuality requirement. Then, the travel time variability ratio is developed based on this diminishing marginal effect to help travelers intuitively understand the implicit cost of the punctuality requirements they impose for their trips. Numerical examples demonstrate that it is necessary to consider the cost of travel time unreliability, as it can account for more than 10% of the total trip cost.
    Date: 2022–07
  50. By: Ai Linh Nguyen; Wenyuan Liu; Khiam Aik Khor; Andrea Nanetti; Siew Ann Cheong
    Abstract: Nowadays, patenting activities are essential in converting applied science to technology in the prevailing innovation model. To gain strategic advantages in the technological competitions between regions, nations need to leverage the investments of public and private funds to diversify over all technologies or specialize in a small number of technologies. In this paper, we investigated who the leaders are at the regional and assignee levels, how they attained their leadership positions, and whether they adopted diversification or specialization strategies, using a dataset of 176,193 patent records on graphene between 1986 and 2017 downloaded from Derwent Innovation. By applying a co-clustering method to the IPC subclasses in the patents and using a z-score method to extract keywords from their titles and abstracts, we identified seven graphene technology areas emerging in the sequence synthesis - composites - sensors - devices - catalyst - batteries - water treatment. We then examined the top regions in their investment preferences and their changes in rankings over time and found that they invested in all seven technology areas. In contrast, at the assignee level, some were diversified while others were specialized. We found that large entities diversified their portfolios across multiple technology areas, while small entities specialized around their core competencies. In addition, we found that universities had higher entropy values than corporations on average, leading us to the hypothesis that corporations file, buy, or sell patents to enable product development. In contrast, universities focus only on licensing their patents. We validated this hypothesis through an aggregate analysis of reassignment and licensing and a more detailed analysis of three case studies - SAMSUNG, RICE UNIVERSITY, and DYSON.
    Date: 2022–08
  51. By: Federico Huneeus; Borja Larrain; Mauricio Larrain; Mounu Prem
    Abstract: We use matched employer-employee data together with data on the ownership networks of Chilean firms to document a novel relationship between inequality in labor income and ownership structures. Exploiting transitions of firms in and out of networks, we show that network afiliation is associated with higher inequality along two dimensions. First, network firms pay higher average wages than stand-alone firms, increasing between-firm inequality. Second, the dispersion of wages within a network firm is higher than within a stand-alone firm, increasing within-firm inequality. The effects are driven by increases in the wages of top workers, and by the entry of new top workers. Our findings shed light on the relationship between ownership structures and the distribution of labor income in the economy.
    Date: 2022–03
  52. By: Trung Thanh Nguyen; Manh Hung Do
    Abstract: This research aimed to examine the factors affecting the participation of female rural-urban migrants in online marketplaces, the welfare gains and their distribution from the participation. Our analysis was based on the data of 373 female rural-urban migrants in Thailand and Vietnam. Online market participation is classified into three activities, financial transaction, trading, and business. We accounted for the endogeneity issue of online market participation in welfare impact assessment by using an instrumental variable approach. Our results show that the participation has a positive effect on the consumption of female migrants only when they participate in the complete bundle of online market activities. In addition, we also find that the poor benefit insignificantly from online marketplaces. This raises a concern of increasing welfare inequality and suggests that the poor should be supported in order not to be left behind.
    Keywords: Impact; Welfare, Poverty, Endogenous, Heterogeneity, Instrumental variable
    JEL: O18 R11 I30
    Date: 2022–08
  53. By: Sen, Kritika; Villa, Kira M.
    Keywords: Consumer/Household Economics, International Development, Community/Rural/Urban Development
    Date: 2022–08
  54. By: Muriuki, James M.; Badruddoza, Syed; Fuad, Syed M.
    Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Agribusiness
    Date: 2022–08
  55. By: Federico Carril-Caccia (University of Granada); Jordi Paniagua (University of Valencia and Kellogg Institute, University of Notre Dame); Marta Suárez-Varela (Banco de España)
    Abstract: There is growing concern about the increase in food insecurity across the world, but little is known of its economic implications. This paper quantifies the effect of food crises on forced international migration (FIM) flows using a structural gravity model. To this end, we use a database that measures the severity, intensity and causes of food crises. The results suggest that even less severe food crises tend to increase FIM flows. More severe food crises tend to skew FIM flows towards developing countries. The results obtained appear to indicate that food crises tighten liquidity constraints on migration and that these constraints worsen as the food crisis intensifies.
    Keywords: forced migration, food security, gravity equation
    JEL: F22 O15 Q18
    Date: 2022–07
  56. By: Wolfgang Maennig (Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg); Stefan Wilhelm (Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg)
    Abstract: We examine the short- and medium-term effects of announcements of changes in anti-crime policies in the distant future (news shocks) and provide a first extension of the analysis to cases where the announced policy changes may not be realized in the end (noise shocks). We further innovate by analyzing the effects of policy changes that increase the variance while holding the expected values of policy instruments constant. We confirm that news shocks can bring about immediate changes in delinquency. However, announcements of tighter anti-crime policies may even increase delinquent activities, at least temporarily. In the case of noise shocks, we observe persistent reactions of potential offenders, indicating that a credible communication strategy may generate an impact on crime politics. Finally, increasing the variance of policy instruments without changing the mean expected detection rate may have similar effects.
    Date: 2022–08–10
  57. By: Ponomarev Yuri (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Borzykh Ksenia (RANEPA); Aliev S. (RANEPA)
    Abstract: After a dramatic decline of the main performance indicators of the transportation industry on the back of acute implications of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, the year 2021 saw the signs of recovery of this sector, however, the indicators (the transportation volume) remained below the pre-pandemic level. The rates of recovery of the transportation industry correlate closely with the dynamics of related industries (intersectoral linkages), such as tourism, the building industry and retail trade. A pickup in transportation services was driven by the lifting of restrictions and a revival of global production, business activity and logistics chains.
    Keywords: Russian economy, transportation industry, freight tariffs, passenger traffic, railways
    JEL: L91 L92 L93 L99
    Date: 2022
  58. By: David Granada Donato
    Abstract: This document explores the implications of a migratory shock (in the form of household member(s) leaving) on the labour market behaviour of individuals left-behind in Vietnam. In addition, various coping mechanisms exhibited by each age group and their implications regarding sectoral labour allocation are further explored. Using panel data of 2,200 households in six waves and a DiD specification, the results suggest an increase in the likelihood of working for the elderly in agriculture that is most likely associated with higher labour invested in livestock activities. The results are robust to different specifications. Moreover, this coping mechanism of increased work is exhibited by those families that do not receive remittances and seems to last (even increase) for up to three periods after the migratory shock occurs. Interestingly, there is also evidence of diminishing returns on working probability when the share of migrants in the household increase.
    Keywords: Migration, Left-Behind, Labour Market, Agriculture
    JEL: J61 O15 P25 R23
    Date: 2022–01

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