|
on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Louis Morel |
| Abstract: | We assess how location affects house prices in Canada. The gap in prices between suburbs and downtown was closing gradually before the pandemic. The gap has been closing faster since spring 2020. This finding reflects a shift in preferences toward more living space. |
| Keywords: | Asset pricing; Coronavirus disease (COVID-19); Financial stability; Housing |
| JEL: | R21 R23 R32 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocsan:22-7&r= |
| By: | Kristopher S. Gerardi; Lauren Lambie-Hanson; Paul S. Willen |
| Abstract: | This article reviews the aid offered to the roughly 50 million homeowners with mortgages included in a forbearance program, and the Federal Reserve’s actions that pushed down mortgage rates, allowing many mortgage holders to reduce their monthly payments by refinancing. We deem these policies to be quite effective in relieving financial distress and allowing homeowners to stay in their homes, especially in contrast with the policies pursued during the Great Recession. We emphasize that these policies in part worked because of rising housing prices and home equity, before and during the pandemic, and note that such conditions might not hold in future downturns. We observe that minority mortgage borrowers were much more likely to miss mortgage payments, so forbearance was particularly important to them. Black and Hispanic borrowers, however, were less likely than white or Asian borrowers to refinance. |
| Keywords: | mortgage refinancing; mortgage repayment; home equity; racial inequality |
| JEL: | G21 G51 E52 J15 |
| Date: | 2022–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbcq:94444&r= |
| By: | Hilber, Christian A. L.; Schöni, Olivier |
| Abstract: | We investigate how political backlash against wealthy second home investors in high natural amenity places affects local residents. We exploit a quasi-natural experiment: the ‘Swiss Second Home Initiative’, which banned the construction of new second homes in desirable seasonal tourist locations. Consistent with our model, we find that the ban substantially lowered (increased) the price growth of primary (second) homes and increased the unemployment growth rate in the affected areas. Our findings suggest that the negative effect on local economies dominated the positive amenity-preservation effect. We conclude that constraining second home construction in seasonal tourist locations where primary and second homes are not close substitutes may reinforce wealth inequality. |
| Keywords: | second homes; wealth inequality; land use regulation; housing policy; house prices; unemployment; P2FRP1_155187 |
| JEL: | D63 G12 R11 R21 R31 R52 |
| Date: | 2020–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:104697&r= |
| By: | Borooah, Vani |
| Abstract: | This paper probes racial disparities in the police practice of stop and search in England and Wales. Specifically, it examines the hypothesis that “ethnic minorities” suffer two possible disadvantages vis-à-vis the ethnic majority of British Whites: (i) persons belonging to ethnic minorities, and in particular the non-white ethnic minorities, may be victims of racial bias by the police who, in selecting persons for stops, might disproportionately target non-white ethnic minorities; (ii) persons from ethnic minorities — and, again, in particular the non-white ethnic minorities — live disproportionately in Police Areas (hereafter, Areas) in which a large number of stops are conducted relative to the Area population. Consequently, the stop rate for ethnic minorities — defined as the number of stops per 1,000 of ethnic population — could be high because, relative to British Whites, persons from ethnic minorities live in Areas in which the overall stop rate — defined as the number of stops per 1,000 of the Area’s population — is high. The chapter proposes a methodology for distinguishing between the bias and location effects. The chapter also examines the pattern of arrests following stops and casts doubt on another hypothesis, namely, that persons from ethnic minorities are stopped more often than their White counterparts because they were more likely to offend. |
| Keywords: | Police, Stop and Search, Ethnic Minoriries, England and Wales |
| JEL: | K42 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:113064&r= |
| By: | Melissa Clark; Jeffrey Max; Susanne James-Burdumy; Silvia Robles; Moira McCullough; Paul Burkander; Steven Malick |
| Abstract: | This study examined one promising strategy for individualized coaching: professional coaches—rather than district or school staff—providing feedback to teachers based on videos of their instruction. |
| Keywords: | Education, Teacher training, Teacher coaching, Professional Development, Video recording, Student achievement, Teacher practices, Instructional practices, Evaluation, Random assignment, Classroom observations, Feedback cycles, Classroom Assessment Scoring System, CLASS |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:5b522b849ff54506a7fdd69a9ee835a2&r= |
| By: | Hansmeier, Hendrik; Koschatzky, Knut; Zenker, Andrea; Stahlecker, Thomas |
| Abstract: | While societal challenges are global in nature, solving and addressing them usually tends to take place at smaller spatial scales. As place-specific technological, institutional and actor settings have a decisive influence on the direction, scope and speed of transformative dynamics, regions vary greatly in the generation and application of innovations required for socio-technical transitions. With a broader understanding of regional innovation systems (RIS), on the one hand, and spatial considerations in transition studies, on the other, geographic research has recently contributed to a better understanding of innovation-based structural and systemic change. At the same time, the research findings are still insufficiently linked with one another. We argue that recent theorizing on expanded regional innovation systems provides additional explanatory power in the context of sys-temic transitions by considering similar aspects, e.g. the role of experimentation and different modes of innovation, yet incorporating a more spatial perspective. Against this background, we show that innovation policies at the regional level seem to be particularly effective when they sup-port innovation dynamics aimed at sustainability through the inclusion of various actor groups and the attention to both the production and application side. Given the increasing spatial disparities in innovation dynamics, however, further research is needed on the opportunities and barriers of different regional settings for sustainability transitions. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisifr:r22022&r= |
| By: | Melinda Fremerey; Andreas Lichter; Max Löffler |
| Abstract: | We study the consequences of a large-scale austerity program targeting financially-constrained municipalities in Germany. For identification, we exploit the quasi-random assignment of treatment among equally-distressed municipalities using a difference-in-differences design. The policy helped targeted municipalities to consolidate budgets. Whereas the amount of fiscal consolidation was homogeneous among treated municipalities, strategies of consolidation differed between smaller and larger municipalities. The former primarily cut spending on local public services, whereas the latter predominantly relied on tax increases. We detect no adverse economic effects but sizable negative effects on population levels and house prices in municipalities reducing local amenities. |
| Keywords: | austerity, fiscal consolidation, local amenities, taxes, spatial equilibrium |
| JEL: | H74 H73 H11 H30 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9800&r= |
| By: | Pauline Givord (Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE), LIEPP - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire d'évaluation des politiques publiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Milena Suarez (INSEE) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a new method that goes beyond the measurement of average value-added of schools by measuring whether schools mitigate or intensify grades dispersion among initially similar students. In practice, school value-added is estimated at different levels of final achieve- ments' distribution by quantile regressions with school specific fixed effects. This method is applied using exhaustive data of the 2015 French high-school diploma and controlling for initial achievements and socio-economic background. Results suggest that almost one-sixth of the high schools significantly reduce, or on the contrary increase, the dispersion in final grades which were expected given the initial characteristics of their intake. |
| Keywords: | school value-added,quantile regression,Student Growth Percentiles |
| Date: | 2020–10–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03389176&r= |
| By: | Laura Schmitz |
| Abstract: | It is often argued that institutionalized after-school care (ASC) can benefit children lacking adequate homework support at home and, hence, foster equality of opportunity. However, despite considerable policy interest, it is unclear whether these afternoon programs are beneficial for child development and if selection into them is efficient, i.e., whether students benefiting most from the programs choose to attend. In this paper, I examine the effects of ASC on elementary school children’s schooling outcomes and non-cognitive skill development. Using a marginal treatment effect framework and regional and temporal variation caused by an extensive reform in Germany, I instrument after-school care attendance with the change in the distance to the next school offering ASC within one district. My findings suggest that children from lower socioeconomic backgrounds, who more often select into treatment, have higher ASC premiums. Concerning schooling outcomes, I find minor positive local average treatment effects but no effect heterogeneity concerning unobserved characteristics. ASC effects on the treated’s non-cognitive skills are more sizable than those on the untreated, suggesting that selection into ASC is positive and efficient. Overall, a universal voluntary offer of ASC will likely help reduce educational inequalities. |
| Keywords: | After-school care, marginal treatment effects, inequality |
| JEL: | I21 I24 I26 J08 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2006&r= |
| By: | Muñoz, Ercio |
| Abstract: | I study whether the observed differences in intergenerational educational mobility across regions in Latin America and the Caribbean are due to the sorting of families or the effect of grow ing up in these different places. I exploit differences in the age of children at the time their families move across locations to isolate regional childhood exposure effects from sorting. I find a convergence rate of 3.5% per year of exposure between age 1 to 11, implying that children who move at the age of 1 would pick up 35% of the observed differences in mobility between origin and destination. These results are robust to using a speci fication that identifies the effect of place within households, the use of only anomalously high migration outflows, instrument ing the choice of destination with historical migration, and a combination of both approaches. |
| Keywords: | Docentes, Educación, Familia, Investigación socioeconómica, Niñez, Políticas públicas, |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbl:dblwop:1843&r= |
| By: | Capuno, Joseph (University of the Philippines Diliman); Corpuz, Jose (University of Warwick); Lordemus, Samuel (University of Lucerne) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how natural disasters affect low public nances and their interplay with intergovernmental transfers and external resources. We document the causal effect of a natural disaster on the allocation of local public resources the local government fiscal dynamics by exploiting the random nature of the 2013 Typhoon Haiyan, one of the most devastating natural disasters in recent history. Combining data on local government nance with reports on the level of damages caused by the typhoon, we employ several estimation strategies: we first rely on difference-in-differences and event study designs, and we further address a potential endogeneity concern by instrumenting the intensity exposure to the typhoon with distance to the storm path. We show that local revenue and public expenditures remain largely unaffected, except debt service, which are on average 15% lower in affected cities or municipalities. However, we document important heterogeneity in local revenue responses. We find no support for the moral hazard problem : our results indicate that external aid leads to higher local expenditures, particularly general public services, socioeconomic expenditures, including education and social services, and debt payments. These results highlight the crucial role of central government transfers in supporting local governments and mitigating the geographical economic disparities in the aftermath of exogenous shocks such as natural disasters. |
| Keywords: | Natural disasters ; local government finance ; Haiyan/Yolanda |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1411&r= |
| By: | W. Scott Frame; Ruidi Huang; Erik J. Mayer; Adi Sunderam |
| Abstract: | We study links between the labor market for loan officers and access to mortgage credit. Using novel data matching the (near) universe of mortgage applications to loan officers, we find that minorities are significantly underrepresented among loan officers. Minority borrowers are less likely to complete mortgage applications, have completed applications approved, and to ultimately take-up a loan. These disparities are significantly reduced when minority borrowers work with minority loan officers. Minority borrowers working with minority loan officers also have lower default rates. Our results suggest that minority underrepresentation among loan officers has adverse effects on minority borrowers’ access to credit. |
| Keywords: | mortgages; race; loan officers; approval; default |
| JEL: | G21 G51 J15 |
| Date: | 2022–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:94369&r= |
| By: | Raco, Mike; Ward, Callum; Brill, Frances; Sanderson, Danielle; Freire-Trigo, Sonia; Ferm, Jess; Hamiduddin, Iqbal; Livingstone, Nicola |
| Abstract: | In this paper we draw on the findings of a mixed methods research project that has examined the production, regulation, and delivery of housing in London. Our aim is to develop fresh insights into the growing mobilisation of numbers and targets in contemporary planning systems. More specifically, we bring two fields of literature into conversation. First, drawing on recent contributions from Pike et al. (2019) we develop their notion of ‘city statecraft or the art of city government and management of state affairs and relations (p.79). We discuss how and why their framing of contemporary urban governance captures current trends in contemporary cities, including: the financialisation of housing and infrastructure; the rolling-out of delivery-focused public private partnerships; and the broader political projects that underpin planning priorities. The paper combines these insights with wider writings in urban studies on virtualism or the analysis of theories and governmental practices that seek to make the world conform to pre-existing ideas, rather than describing and explaining its formation. We argue that target-based forms of governance represent the implementation of a virtual statecraft in which the material realities of actual places become simulated worlds, ripe for calculation and re-making. We show, through in-depth research on housing regulation and investment/development trends in London, the ways in which virtual forms of statecraft are developed and implemented and with what effects on the material outcomes of urban development processes. The findings are of comparative significance as planning systems across Europe and beyond are becoming increasingly focused on market-oriented oriented forms of planning in an effort to boost the production of housing and to deliver social policy outcomes. |
| Keywords: | housing; London; statecraft; targets; virtualism; ES/S015078/1 |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2022–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:114315&r= |
| By: | Hubbard, Wayne |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession |
| Date: | 2021–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usao21:321043&r= |
| By: | Lise Clain-Chamosset-yvrard (UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2); Xavier Raurich (University of Barcelona, Department of Economics); Thomas Seegmuller (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | We provide a unified framework with demand for housing over the life cycle and financial frictions to analyze the existence and macroeconomic effects of rational housing bubbles. We distinguish a housing price bubble, defined as the difference between the housing market price and its fundamental value, from a housing demand bubble, which corresponds to a situation where a pure speculative housing demand exists. In an overlapping generation exchange economy, we show that no housing price bubble occurs. However, a housing demand bubble may occur, generating a boom in housing prices and a drop in the interest rate, when households face a binding borrowing constraint. Multiplicity of steady states and endogenous fluctuations can occur when credit market imperfections are moderate. These fluctuations involve transitions between equilibria with and without a housing demand bubble that generate large fluctuations in housing prices consistent with observed patterns. We finally extend the basic framework to a production economy and we show that a housing demand bubble increases the housing price, housing price to income ratio and economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Bubble,Housing,Self-fulfilling fluctuations |
| Date: | 2022–06–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03703219&r= |
| By: | Jan K. Brueckner; S. Sayantani |
| Abstract: | This paper summarizes the results from generalizing the simple two-city WFH model of Brueck-ner, Kahn and Lin (2021) through the addition of a group of non-remote workers, who must live in the city where they work. The results show that the main qualitative conclusions of BKL regarding the intercity effects of WFH are unaffected by this modification, with WFH yielding the same aggregate population and employment changes in the two cities and the same house-price and wage effects as in the simpler model. This conclusion is useful because it establishes the robustness of BKL’s highly parsimonious model. |
| Keywords: | work-from-home, remote work, amenities, productivity |
| JEL: | R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9793&r= |
| By: | Raja Rafi Ullah (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics); M. Shaaf Najib (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics) |
| Abstract: | Despite attracting significant levels of domestic investment, the Real Estate Market is chronically under-researched in Pakistan. A further sub-section of this market, i.e. the Real Estate Brokerage Market, is this paper's main topic of analysis. |
| Keywords: | Real Estate, Brokerage Market, Pakistan, |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2022:5&r= |
| By: | Charlotte Bez; Maria Enrica Virgillito |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at the nexus between toxic industrial pollution and the spillovers from the plant's production activities, leading to regional lock-ins. Geolocalised facility-level data from the European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register (E-PRTR) are used to calculate annual chemical-specific pollution, weighted by its toxicity. We combine the latter with regional data on employment, wages and demographics sourced from Cambridge Econometrics, covering more than 1.200 NUTS-3 regions in 15 countries, over the period 2007-2018. We employ quantile regressions to detect the heterogeneity across regions and understand the specificities of the 10th and 25th percentiles, the so-called left-behind places. Our first contribution consists in giving a novel and comprehensive account of the geography of toxic pollution in Europe, both at facility and regional level, disaggregated by sectors. Second, we regress toxic pollution (intensity effect) and pollutant concentration (composition effect) on labour market dimensions of left-behind places. Our results point to the existence of economic dependence on noxious industrialization in left-behind places. In addition, whenever environmental efficiency-enhancing production technologies are adopted this leads to labour-saving effects in industrial employment, but positive spatial spillovers at the regional level. Through the lens of evolutionary economic geography our results call for a new political economy of left-behind places. |
| Keywords: | Environmental inequality; Left-behind places; Toxic pollution; Labour markets. |
| Date: | 2022–07–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2022/19&r= |
| By: | Felipe González (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile); Mounu Prem (Universidad del Rosario) |
| Abstract: | Police repression is a common feature of street protests around the world but evidence about its impact on dissident behavior is limited. We provide an empirical analysis of people linked to a student killed by a stray bullet coming from a policeman during a large protest. Using administrative data on daily school attendance, we follow his schoolmates and those living nearby the shooting in hundreds of protest and non-protest days to estimate whether police repression affected their protest behavior. We find that repression causes a temporary deterrence effect but only on students with social (rather than geographic) links to the victim. Moreover, we show that police violence increased adherence to a student-led boycott two years after the shooting and had negative educational consequences for students. These findings cast doubt on the effectiveness of police repression in quieting dissent and ensuring public safety. |
| Keywords: | police repression, state repression, protest, students |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:343&r= |
| By: | Erin Behrmann; Olivia Turner; Maggie Magee |
| Abstract: | School-located vaccinations clinics (SLVs) are part of the community-based response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Although there is variability in the scope and reach of SLVs, consistent themes persist such as the importance of SLVs in promoting equitable access to vaccinations. |
| Keywords: | school-located vaccination, equity, COVID-19, influenza, community health |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:dfe15cb0b2d748f6acbeb15d7adf90c8&r= |
| By: | José María Rentería (UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the mid-term effects of the de facto privatization that has taken place in the Peruvian educational system. It exploits exogenous policy shocks as well as two sources of variation, namely the geographical location of the new private schools and the year of birth of individuals. Both variables determine the degree of exposure to the private school expansion process. The results suggest that this phenomenon has contributed neither to increasing access to formal education nor to improving wages in the labor market. This evidence raises concerns about the impact of privatization on the quality of the education system as a whole as well the regulatory role of the State |
| Keywords: | Private education,school choice |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-03704338&r= |
| By: | Konstantin A. Kholodilin; Fernando A. López; David Rey Blanco; Pelayo González Arbués |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the effects of short-lived rent control regulations introduced in Catalonia in September 2020 and revoked in March 2022. Using the microdata of the largest Spanish housing advertisement portal idealista between January 2017 and May 2022, we analyze the dynamics of prices and supply for dwellings offered for rent and for sale. We also examine separately the rental and sales markets. We find that the introduction of rent control led to a reduction in rents in both controlled and uncontrolled Catalan municipalities, while quantities virtually did not react to it. The selling prices of dwellings remained unchanged, whereas their supply increased substantially. The revocation of rent control caused a strong increase in the rental and selling prices in all municipalities, no increase in the supply, with the exception of the supply of regulated dwellings for sale. In addition, using the macrodata on housing construction we find that during the rent-control period the average number of monthly dwelling starts in Catalonia declined by 6% compared to January 2019 – September 2020, while nationwide it increased by almost 12%. Thus, the effects are broadly consistent with the predictions of the economic literature on rent controls. |
| Keywords: | Rent control, Catalonia, asking rents, asking selling prices |
| JEL: | C43 O18 R38 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2008&r= |
| By: | Colner, Jonathan P.; D’Agostino, Mollie |
| Abstract: | Congestion pricing (CP) is widely considered to have significant potential for effectively reducing vehicle miles traveled, reducing emissions, and providing a reliable revenue source for transportation investments. This study evaluated cities interested in CP—five in the U.S. (Boston, Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco, Seattle) and two in other countries (Vancouver, Canada, and Auckland, New Zealand). This study examines the following features of a CP system for each of these cities: 1) duration of CP investigations, 2) equity mitigations, 3) range of alternatives considered, 4) public engagement, and 5) importance of emissions reductions. Timelines are impossible to predict with certainty, but New York and Auckland appear closest to implementation. Vancouver, San Francisco, and Seattle are well into the process; and Boston and Los Angeles are early in the process. Other key findings include that most of the cities start considering a range of options before narrowing down to comparing more detailed CP systems. Vancouver and San Francisco have made public engagement a cornerstone of their plan development, using polls and workshops to finetune the details of their CP proposals. In contrast, Auckland, while still engaging with stakeholders and experts for guidance, has mainly focused on how to ensure public support and understanding of the proposals they recommend. In terms of equity, discounts are a common and primary strategy proposed among the cities, but some also develop a more comprehensive set of equity policies to accompany a CP system. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Congestion pricing, vehicle miles of travel, exhaust emissions, social equity, policy analysis, case studies |
| Date: | 2022–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1pd4x9wr&r= |
| By: | Carla Morvan (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this study is to analyze the causal impact of natural disasters on municipal budget choices, using a original database that allows us to study a sample of several thousand municipalities, 22,972 of which were affected by a natural disaster between 2000 and 2019. This quasi-experimental setting allows us to use panel regression models to estimate municipalities' responses to a shock and with respect to their prevention strategies. We find evidence of increased spending for about 10 years after the disaster, together with increased in revenues and debt. Furthermore, it appears that prevention allows municipalities to effectively mitigate the effect of the disaster in terms of public spending, as municipalities with a natural hazard prevention plan in place did not increase their spending and their debt in the long run. |
| Keywords: | Local public finance,Local expenditure,Natural disasters,Risks prevention |
| Date: | 2022–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03684732&r= |
| By: | Jan Bietenbeck; Natalie Irmert; Mohammad H. Sepahvand |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of two dimensions of teacher quality, subject knowledge and didactic skills, on student learning in francophone Sub-Saharan Africa. We use data from an international large-scale assessment in 14 countries that include individual-level information on student achievement and country-level measures of teacher subject knowledge and didactic skills in reading and math. Exploiting variation between subjects in a student fixed-effects model, we find that teacher subject knowledge has a large positive effect on student achievement, whereas the effect of didactic skills is comparatively small and not statistically significant at conventional levels. Together, the two dimensions of teacher quality account for 36 percent of the variation in average student achievement across countries. |
| Keywords: | international learning gaps, teacher quality, Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | I21 I25 O15 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9781&r= |
| By: | Butzin, Anna; Flögel, Franz |
| Abstract: | The attention to "left behind" places triggered a debate about alternative development approaches. Unlike prosperous regions and their prioritisation on high-tech sectors, strategies for left behind places should shift to the foundational economy, community-based social innovation and well-being. While supporting this emphasis, we see a tendency to neglect importance of research and teaching in high-tech areas for developing left behind places. Our case study in the old industrial region Ruhr shows, how unrelated initial funding for cutting-edge research sparked the development of today's cybersecurity ecosystem. The ecosystem contributes to a positive identification within the region and a dynamic start-up landscape. |
| Keywords: | left behind places,entrepreneurial ecosystem,cybersecurity,hightech sectors,regional development |
| JEL: | O31 O32 O18 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iatdps:2204&r= |
| By: | Hornok, Cecília; Raeskyesa, Dewa Gede Sidan |
| Abstract: | Economic zones can be powerful drivers of economic growth in developing countries. However, less is known about their distributional impact on the local society. This paper provides empirical evidence from Indonesian provinces on the relationship between economic zones and within-province income inequality. Estimates from panel regressions and synthetic control case studies suggest that this relationship is positive overall. The estimated rise in income inequality after a zone opens is relatively small on average and may be short-lived. However, the average estimate masks large regional differences, which suggests that the inequality implications of economic zone policies depend on local conditions. One explanation for the rise in inequality is that the unskilled population benefits disproportionately less from the policy. As a remedy, we propose education and training programs that target the poor and unskilled and in which companies also actively participate. |
| Keywords: | economic zones,place-based policy,income distribution,synthetic control method,Indonesia |
| JEL: | D31 F63 O15 O25 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2225&r= |
| By: | Agrawal, David R.; Stark, Kirk J. |
| Abstract: | The remote work revolution raises the possibility that a much larger segment of the population will be able to sever the geographic linkage between home and work. This new development implicates several foundational questions in the law and economics of U.S. fiscal federalism. What are the taxing rights of states as to nonresident remote workers employed by firms within the state? May a state impose income taxes on nonresident employees only to the extent they are physically working within the state? Does state taxing power extend to all income derived from in-state firms, including wages paid to those who never set foot in the state? How these legal questions are resolved has important implications for the future of state income taxes. Standard sourcing rules attribute wage income to the employee's physical location. In the presence of remote work, however, rigid ad-herence to this physical presence rule could intensify the progressivity-limiting dynamics of federalism by re-ducing the costs to households of exploiting labor income tax differentials across jurisdictions. In this article, we document the rise of remote work, the status of state-level income tax progressivity as well as its evolution over time, and the correlation between work from home trends and progressivity. We consider how alternative legal rules for the sourcing of income can affect telework-induced mobility, but conclude that, regardless of which sourcing regime prevails in coming legal battles, the rise of remote work is likely to limit redistribution via state income taxes. While some sourcing rules may better preserve progressivity in the short term than others, the more fundamental threat to progressive state tax regimes derives from remote work's long-term erosion of the benefits of urban spatial clustering. To the extent that the nation's productive cities lose their allure as centers of agglomeration and the wages of high-skilled workers in these cities fall, the ability of their host states to pursue redistributive tax policies will likely be constrained. Significantly, these deglomeration effects will arise regard-less of how state taxing rights are adapted for the remote work era, and therefore may carry with them implica-tions for income tax progressivity at the federal level as well. |
| Keywords: | income tax,remote work,sourcing rules,progressivity |
| JEL: | H2 H7 J6 K3 R5 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1119&r= |
| By: | Eduard Hromada (Faculty of Civil Engineering, Czech Technical University in Prague) |
| Abstract: | The paper deals with the analysis of the current situation on the real estate market in the Czech Republic in connection with the COVID-19 pandemic. Selected pricing and technical parameters such as prices of apartments for sale, prices of apartments for rent, technical condition of the apartments and energy performance of the building are analysed. To obtain input data for the analysis was used software EVAL, which the author of the paper has been developing since 2007. The software EVAL collects, analyses and evaluates real estate advertising in the Czech Republic in a monthly period. All real estate advertising is continuously recorded in the software database and is carefully analysed for its credibility. EVAL software provides comprehensive and objective information on the actual development of the real estate market in the Czech Republic. The paper uses basic statistical methods of processing a large data set. |
| Keywords: | Real estate market, EVAL software, Real estate prices, Statistical methods, Data mining |
| JEL: | C10 R20 R30 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:12713389&r= |
| By: | Bruce D. Meyer; Angela Wyse; Kevin Corinth |
| Abstract: | Despite widespread concern about homelessness, fundamental questions about the size and characteristics of this hard to study population are unresolved, in large part because it is unclear whether existing data are sufficiently complete and reliable. We examine these questions as well as the coverage of new microdata sources that are designed to be nationally representative and will allow pathbreaking new analyses. We compare three restricted use data sources that have been largely unused to study homelessness to less detailed public data. In doing this triangulation of sources, we examine the completeness and accuracy of available data and improve our understanding of the size of the homeless population and its inclusion in household surveys. Specifically, we compare restricted data from the 2010 Census, American Community Survey (ACS), and Homeless Management Information System (HMIS) to HUD's public-use point-in-time (PIT) estimates and the Housing Inventory Count (HIC) at the national, city and county, and person level. We explore the extent to which definitions, weighting, frame completeness, and seasonality explain discrepancies between sources. We also link HMIS shelter-use data to the Census to evaluate the usefulness of these microdata to study this population. Our analyses suggest that on a given night there are 500,000-600,000 people experiencing homelessness in the U.S., about one-third of whom are sleeping on the streets and two-thirds in shelters. About 80-95 percent of those in shelters were counted in the Census. Despite employing substantially different methods, the Census, ACS, and PIT arrive at similar estimates after accounting for definitional differences, ambiguity in the classification of certain facilities, and differences arising from the timeframe of Census response. The coverage of these sources is surprisingly good given the difficulties of surveying this population. By establishing the broad coverage and reliability of the new data sources, this paper lays the foundation for pathbreaking future work on the characteristics, income, safety net participation, mortality, migration, geographic distribution, and housing status transitions of the U.S. homeless population. |
| JEL: | J0 R0 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30163&r= |
| By: | Kevin Connolly; Mairi Spowage |
| Abstract: | Building on previous work this paper provides updated prices and inflation estimates for the twelve NUTS-1 regions of the UK. One key issue previously noted when moving to regional prices estimates is the reduction in LCFS sample size leading to unstable weights. In this paper, we investigate the data sources to produce regional expenditure estimates, attempting to increase the accuracy of CPIH estimates. The primary focus is on the Regional Household Final Consumption Expenditure measure (HFCE) publication for use as estimates for regional expenditure weights. While we were able to update the UK regional CPIH estimates to 2020 using other data sources we still encounter similar problems to Dawber and Smith (2017), with the small sample size of the price databases being problematic for the calculation of CPIH indices. |
| Keywords: | cpih and inflation, regional prices |
| JEL: | C60 O11 R11 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsr:escoed:escoe-dp-2021-13&r= |
| By: | Sylvain Chareyron; Yannick L'Horty; Souleymane Mbaye; Pascale Petit |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tep:teppwp:wp22-03&r= |
| By: | Amore, Mario Daniele (Bocconi University); Bennedsen, Morten (University of Copenhagen); Larsen, Birthe (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School) |
| Abstract: | The working environment is a key driver of firms’ success. Using unique survey and register data from Denmark, we show that firms led by neighborhood CEOs –defined by physical distance and personal values - exhibit better workplace condi-tions as perceived both by a regulatory authority and firms’ own employees. The e˙ect is stronger when the CEO’s and employees’ children attend the same school, pointing to social interactions as a channel for the result. Finally, we show that CEOs who emphasize neighborhood engagement adopt a management style tilted toward employees’ welfare. |
| Keywords: | CEO; geographic proximity; neighborhood values; working environment; management styles; |
| JEL: | G34 |
| Date: | 2022–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2022_010&r= |
| By: | Anna Gerke (Audencia Recherche - Audencia Business School); Yan Dalla Pria (IDHES - Institutions et Dynamiques Historiques de l'Économie et de la Société - ENS Paris Saclay - Ecole Normale Supérieure Paris-Saclay - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Date: | 2022–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03678380&r= |
| By: | Yikai Zhao; Jun Nagayasu |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of state-owned enterprises'(SOE) privatization on how firm productivity responds to agglomeration and selection effects, and investigate whether and how policymakers can utilize agglomeration and selection to benefit from privatization. As SOEs enjoy privileged treatment because of their government ties, we argue that the agglomeration advantages of SOEs are rooted in their connection with local governments who regulate them, who share local information with surrounding SOEs, such as labor markets, resources, and tacit knowledge. Overall, we attempt to answer the following questions: 1) Will the SOEs f reform negatively (positively) influence enterprises' agglomeration (selection) effects? 2) To what extent is this influence affected by the local government? 3) Is this adverse or favorable impact heterogeneous? |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:toh:dssraa:126&r= |
| By: | Boero, Gianna (University of Warwick); Karanja, Brian (University of Warwick); Naylor, Robin (University of Warwick); Thiele, Tammy (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | Previous research has established that undergraduate students in the UK who had attended private schools perform less well at university, on average, than equivalent students who had been educated at a state school prior to university (Smith and Naylor, 2001 and 2005; Crawford, 2014a). This well-known result has provided an evidence base for the use of contextualised offers in admissions across the sector (Schwartz Report, 2004; Hubble and Bolton, 2020) as an instrument for enhancing social mobility. In the current paper, we use a rich dataset for a particular university to examine whether the negative association between private schooling and class of degree awarded holds across all students, independent of ethnicity : we find that it does not. For White students, we obtain the standard result that private schooling is associated negatively with class of degree. However, in stark contrast, among students whose ethnicity is self-reported as either Black, Asian or Mixed Ethnicity, attendance at a private school prior to university is, on average, associated positively with the class of degree awarded. On further exploration, we find this is driven by a strong positive association among Black students and students of Mixed Ethnicity ; the overarching category of Black, Asian and Minority Ethnicity conceals substantive differences within the category. Among Asian students, the absence of any association between private schooling and degree class, on average, masks a very strong negative association for those from lower socioeconomic status backgrounds. We discuss and interpret our results in the context of hypotheses within the literatures on schooling effects and on the ethnicity awarding gap in higher education. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1410&r= |
| By: | Carlo V. Fiorio (University of Milan, Irvapp-FBK and Dondena Centre); Tommaso Frattini (University of Milan, Centro Studi Luca D'Agliano, CEPR, CReAM and IZA); Andrea Riganti (University of Milan); Michael Christl (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | We provide novel and comprehensive evidence on the net fiscal contributions of natives and migrants to the governmental budgets of EU countries. We account for income taxes and cash benefits, along with indirect taxes and in-kind benefits, which are often missing in standard datasets. We find that on average, migrants were net contributors to public finances over the period of 2014-2018 in the EU and, moreover, that they contribute approximately EUR 1.5 thousand more per capita each year than natives. We also show that this difference is partly due to selection on characteristics that make migrants net fiscal contributors, such as demographic factors and employment probability. |
| Keywords: | Migration; EU; individual taxation; public benefits; individual fiscal contribution |
| JEL: | F22 H24 H50 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:taxref:202205&r= |
| By: | Jiwon Choi (Princeton University); Ilyana Kuziemko (Princeton University); Ebonya L. Washington (Yale University); Gavin Wright (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | Why have white, less educated voters left the Democratic Party over the past few decades? Scholars have proposed ethnocentrism, social issues and deindustrialization as potential answers. We highlight the role played by the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). In event-study analysis, we demonstrate that counties whose 1990 employment depended on industries vulnerable to NAFTA suffered large and persistent employment losses relative to other counties. These losses begin in the mid-1990s and are only modestly offset by transfer programs. While exposed counties historically voted Democratic, in the mid-1990s they turn away from the party of the president (Bill Clinton) who ushered in the agreement and by 2000 vote majority Republican in House elections. Employing a variety of micro-data sources, including 1992-1994 respondent-level panel data, we show that protectionist views predict movement toward the GOP in the years that NAFTA is debated and implemented. This shift among protectionist respondents is larger for whites (especially men and those without a college degree) and those with conservative social views, suggesting an interactive effect whereby racial identity and social issue positions mediate reactions to economic policies. |
| Keywords: | NAFTA, trade, politics |
| JEL: | D72 F16 H5 J2 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:303&r= |
| By: | Rebekka Rühle |
| Abstract: | This paper studies gender differences in mathematics and science achievement using the most recent Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) data from 2019. Moreover, since grade repetition and dropouts are very common in South Africa and affect the magnitude of gender gaps, the first part of the analysis studies current gender differences in grade repetition and dropout. The descriptive analysis shows that South African boys are more likely to repeat a grade and to drop out of school compared to South African girls. Furthermore, girls outperform boys on average in mathematics and science, both in Grade 5 and 9, but the pro-girl gap is smaller in Grade 9. This suggests that the pro-girl advantage declines at higher grades. Another focus of the paper is to identify potential sources of the gender gaps besides the South African specific factors. This section finds that part of the pro-girl gap in Grades 5 and 9 can be attributed to the female advantage in school progression. Thus, without controlling for gender differences in over-age and dropouts by creating more comparable groups one would bias gender gaps in achievement. Furthermore, this paper shows that there are significant gender differences in attitudes towards mathematics and school in general and some are correlated with the gender differences in achievement. The multivariate analysis employing an ordinary least squares regression with interaction effects and school fixed effects shows that most considered interaction effects are not statistically significant in Grade 5, but several ones are significant in Grade 9. For example, ninth-grade girls are less affected by weekly bullying than their male peers, but value mathematics less. Although the results are an important step towards understanding the female advantage in mathematics and science, we need more studies that explain why girls are less likely to enrol in STEM degrees and why the pro-girl advantage in education does not result in a female advantage in the labour market. Moreover, the results show clearly that South African girls and boys face different challenges during their school careers, which both need equal attention. |
| Keywords: | gender inequality, STEM, mathematics performance, science performance, school dropout, repetition, attitudes, South Africa |
| JEL: | C21 I20 I21 I24 J16 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers374&r= |
| By: | Ellora Derenoncourt (Princeton University); Chi Hyun Kim (University of Bonn); Moritz Kuhn (University of Bonn); Moritz Schularick (University of Bonn, Sciences Po Paris) |
| Abstract: | The racial wealth gap is the largest of the economic disparities between Black and white Americans, with a white-to-Black per capita wealth ratio of 6 to 1. It is also among the most persistent. In this paper, we construct the first continuous series on white-to-Black per capita wealth ratios from 1860 to 2020, drawing on historical census data, early state tax records, and historical waves of the Survey of Consumer Finances, among other sources. Incorporating these data into a parsimonious model of wealth accumulation for each racial group, we document the role played by initial conditions, income growth, savings behavior, and capital returns in the evolution of the gap. Given vastly different starting conditions under slavery, racial wealth convergence would remain a distant scenario, even if wealth-accumulating conditions had been equal across the two groups since Emancipation. Relative to this equal-conditions benchmark, we find that observed convergence has followed an even slower path over the last 150 years, with convergence stalling after 1950. Since the 1980s, the wealth gap has widened again as capital gains have predominantly benefited white households, and income convergence has stopped. |
| Keywords: | Wealth gap, Racial wealth gap, inequality, historical data |
| JEL: | D63 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:296&r= |
| By: | Florin L. Cucu (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This thesis studies the determinants of spatial variation and persistence of economic activity. The first chapter assesses the impact of the construction of the Interstate Highway System on the skill composition of metropolitan areas in the USA. Reduced-form estimates indicate that each additional highway caused an increase in the share of college-educated residents of 0.6 percentage points. Using a quantitative spatial model, the chapter also measures the welfare effects associated with a hypothetical removal of the interstate network. The effects are large for all skill groups. Graduates would nonetheless experience bigger losses in terms of welfare as they are more likely to relocate and incur the higher migration costs.The second chapter documents high persistence of regional development in England and Wales over the last 800 years. Using data on the establishment of medieval markets, the study highlights a strong correlation between commercial activity and agricultural productivity in the late Middle Ages. Places with successful medieval markets remain better developed nowadays. The evidence suggests that path dependence is the most likely explanation for the persistence of development over many centuries. The third chapter studies the relationship between asylum policies and international tensions. The main hypothesis is that European Union member states are more likely to admit refugees from states perceived as rivals rather than partners. Data on asylum applications from 1999 to 2017 bear this out. This result can rationalize a negative and robust correlation between asylum recognition rates and EU imports from the rest of the world. |
| Abstract: | Cette thèse étudie les déterminants de la variation spatiale et de la persistance de l'activité économique. Le premier chapitre évalue l'impact du Système d'Autoroutes Inter-États sur la composition des zones métropolitaines aux États-Unis. Les estimations indiquent que chaque autoroute a entraîné une augmentation de 0,6 point de pourcentage de la part des résidents hautement qualifiés d'une ville. En utilisant un modèle spatial quantitatif, le chapitre mesure également les effets sur le bien-être associés à une suppression hypothétique des autoroutes. Les effets sont significatifs pour toutes les catégories de travailleurs. Les pertes sont néanmoins plus importantes pour les travailleurs qualifiés, vu qu'ils sont plus mobiles et paient les coûts de migration plus souvent.Le deuxième chapitre montre une forte persistance du développement en Angleterre et au Pays de Galles au cours des 800 dernières années. En utilisant des données sur l'établissement des marchés médiévaux, l'étude met en évidence une forte corrélation entre l'activité commerciale et la productivité agricole au Moyen Âge. Les régions avec des marchés prospères sont mieux développées aujourd'hui. Les résultats suggèrent que la dépendance au sentier en est l'explication la plus probable. Le troisième chapitre étudie la relation entre les politiques d'asile et les tensions internationales. L'hypothèse est que les pays de l'Union européenne acceptent davantage de réfugiés provenant d'États perçus comme des rivaux. Des données sur les demandes d'asile de 1999 à 2017 le confirment. Cela pourrait expliquer une corrélation négative entre les politiques d'asile et les importations de l'UE. |
| Keywords: | Transport infrastructure,Migration,Persistence,Refugees,Infrastructure routière,Persistance,Réfugiés |
| Date: | 2020–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpspec:tel-03408590&r= |
| By: | Rodrigo Gandia; Fabio Antonialli; Julia Oliveira; Joel Sugano; Isabelle Nicolaï (LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - CentraleSupélec - Université Paris-Saclay); Izabela Cardoso Oliveira |
| Abstract: | Mobility as a Service (MaaS) presents a shift from existing ownership-based transports and towards access-based ones and it has been recently gaining ground in urban mobility. MaaS is still surrounded by uncertainties and, its development and applicability are mainly centered in developed countries. However, MaaS is modular, adaptable and applicable to several realities. In this sense, this study aims to examine the perception of different transport models among students and to find the profile that can predict respondents' willingness to use MaaS in a developing country. This survey was applied to over 300 university students in a Brazilian city (Lavras). Using the CART algorithm, it was obtained classification trees to predict favorable responses related to MaaS use, based on several predictor variables (socio-economic characteristics, means of transport used, distance and other). It was observed that, car users are a little less sensitive to cost than non-car users. For car users, commute alternatives that take longer, with less flexibility and availabilityeven when offered at lower costsare not appealing, while non-car users accept and spend more time whether lower costs are available. Also, in general, the tree-based classification model predicted a positive adherence possibility for a MaaS scheme for both car users and non-car users (69%). As conclusions, this study suggests a willingness to MaaS model for creating value for commuters in a developing country. It was found that many MaaS' characteristics (e.g. app payment, transport integration, monthly plan, customization, son on.) presented a positive predicted possibility of substitution, especially for millennials. Also, it was found that bicycle may be a modal that can be explored for MaaS schemes worldwide, and casual carpooling could be used as strategy to apply MaaS in places where the public transport lacks efficiency. |
| Keywords: | Mobility as a Service,Consumer behavior,Travel behavior,Urban mobility,Treebased classification model |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03687590&r= |
| By: | Marit Hinnosaar (University of Nottingham); Elaine Liu (University of Houston) |
| Abstract: | How malleable is alcohol consumption? Specifically, how much is alcohol consumption driven by the current environment versus individual characteristics? To answer this question, we analyze changes in alcohol purchases when consumers move from one state to another in the United States. We find that if a household moves to a state with a higher (lower) average alcohol purchases than the origin state, the household is likely to increase (decrease) its alcohol purchases right after the move. The current environment explains about two-thirds of the differences in alcohol purchases. The adjustment takes place both on the extensive and intensive margins. |
| Keywords: | alcohol, geographic variation, migration, taxes, regulation |
| JEL: | I12 L66 D12 |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2022-020&r= |
| By: | Andrea Albanese; Adrián Nieto; Konstantinos Tatsiramos |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of childbirth on local and non-local employment dynamics for both men and women using Belgian social security and geo-location data. Applying an event-study design that accounts for treatment effect heterogeneity, we show that 75 percent of the effect of the birth of a first child on the overall gender gap in employment is accounted for by gender disparities in non-local employment, with mothers being more likely to give up non-local employment compared to fathers. This gender specialisation is mostly driven by opposing job location responses of men and women to individual, household and regional factors. On the one hand, men do not give up non-local employment after childbirth when they are employed in a high-paid job, have a partner who is not participating in the labour market or experience adverse local labour market conditions, suggesting that fathers trade off better employment opportunities with longer commutes. On the other hand, women give up non-local jobs regardless of their earnings level, their partner’s labour market status and local economic conditions, which is consistent with mothers specialising in childcare provision compared to fathers. |
| Keywords: | gender gap, childbirth, job location, cross-border employment, specialisation |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J61 C21 C23 J22 R23 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9792&r= |
| By: | Sara B. Heller; Benjamin Jakubowski; Zubin Jelveh; Max Kapustin |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that shootings are predictable enough to be preventable. Using arrest and victimization records for almost 644,000 people from the Chicago Police Department, we train a machine learning model to predict the risk of being shot in the next 18 months. We address central concerns about police data and algorithmic bias by predicting shooting victimization rather than arrest, which we show accurately captures risk differences across demographic groups despite bias in the predictors. Out-of-sample accuracy is strikingly high: of the 500 people with the highest predicted risk, 13 percent are shot within 18 months, a rate 130 times higher than the average Chicagoan. Although Black male victims more often have enough police contact to generate predictions, those predictions are not, on average, inflated; the demographic composition of predicted and actual shooting victims is almost identical. There are legal, ethical, and practical barriers to using these predictions to target law enforcement. But using them to target social services could have enormous preventive benefits: predictive accuracy among the top 500 people justifies spending up to $123,500 per person for an intervention that could cut their risk of being shot in half. |
| JEL: | C53 H75 I14 K42 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30170&r= |
| By: | Luis Guillermo Woo-Mora (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses skin tone and income information for over a hundred thousand individuals across 31 Latin American countries to study racial inequalities during the last decade. First, I estimate the welfare consequences of racial inequality. Subnational regions with higher income inequality between racial groups have worse economic development. Next, I provide evidence of a skin tone income premium. In an eleven-color palette, each darker shade in skin tone on average leads to a 3% decrease in income, with heterogeneity across countries. My analysis suggests racial discrimination is the main mechanism behind this income premium. |
| Keywords: | Race,Inequality,Economic Development,Discrimination |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wilwps:halshs-03693205&r= |
| By: | Martin Mwale (Department of Economics and Research on Socioeconomic Policy (ReSEP), Stellenbosch University); Dieter von Fintel (Department of Economics and Research on Socioeconomic Policy (ReSEP), Stellenbosch University); Anja Smith (Department of Economics and Research on Socioeconomic Policy (ReSEP), Stellenbosch University) |
| Abstract: | An emerging interdisciplinary literature explores how kinship practices affect household resource allocation through efficiency of production and consumption. This paper focuses on a key gender norm - how a resource transfer to households affects school drop out of girls relative to boys, under different kinship practices. Specifically, we investigate how Malawi's farm input subsidy programme affects gendered school drop out across matrilineal and patrilineal communities. Because of matrilineal practices, girls facilitate the inter-generational transfer of wealth in these communities. They inherit property and often \emph{co-reside} with their parents after marriage, taking care of the parents in their old age. Boys undertake a similar duty in patrilineal communities. Our results indicate that school drop out decreases among girls who live in matrilineal households that participate in the subsidy programme. However, the impact is limited to matrilineal communities where couples reside in women's birth home-matrilocal home. School drop out is not affected by FISP receipt in patrilocal communities, where couples settle in the natal home of men. Furthermore, expenditure on schooling increases among matrilocal girls whose household receive FISP, and girls residing in the matrilocal communities experience a reduction in time spent on domestic chores once their household receives the subsidy. Our results suggest that a resource transfer to households reduces gender gaps in school drop out only in communities where investment in women is more valued by traditional practices than the investment in men. |
| Keywords: | School drop out, Gender, Subsidy, Malawi, Sub-Sahara |
| JEL: | A13 D13 D33 I24 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers371&r= |
| By: | YOO Sunbin; KUMAGAI Junya; KAWASAKI Kohei; HONG Sungwan; ZHANG Bingqi; SHIMAMURA Takuya; MANAGI Shunsuke |
| Abstract: | We illuminate the causal relationship between high-speed railway (HSR) expansions and economic development, focusing on HSR in Japan–the Shinkansen–from 1983 to 2020. To address endogeneity concerns about HSR station construction, we employ a market access approach that captures both the direct and indirect impacts of HSR expansion. The results show that a 1% increase in HSR market access increases the land price by 0.176%, income by 0.425%, and income per capita by 0.023% of Japan. However, most of the benefits are focused in Tokyo and other developed areas, while the economic growth due to HSR expansion of cities outside these areas is negative or statistically insignificant. We confirm the robustness of the results through the instrumental variable (IV) approach and a series of robustness checks. Next, we conduct counterfactual analyses using regression results to evaluate future Japanese HSR plans: the Linear Shinkansen, regional expansion, and a policy that would implement both. Simulation results reconfirm that future HSR plans will induce economic growth but, at the same time, aggravate regional disparity; thus, the expected economic outcomes may be double-edged. |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:22060&r= |
| By: | Jeffrey Clemens; Philip G. Hoxie; Stan Veuger |
| Abstract: | We use an instrumental-variables estimator reliant on variation in congressional representation to analyze the effects of federal aid to state and local governments across all four major pieces of COVID-19 response legislation. Through September 2021, we estimate that the federal government allocated $855,000 for each state or local government job-year preserved. Our baseline confidence interval allows us to rule out estimates of less than $433,000. Our estimates of effects on aggregate income and output are centered on zero and imply modest if any spillover effects onto the broader economy. We discuss aspects of the pandemic context, which include the surprising resilience of state and local tax revenues as well as of broader macroeconomic conditions, that may underlie the small employment and stimulative impacts we estimate in comparison with previous research. |
| JEL: | E6 H1 H7 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30168&r= |
| By: | Marian Moszoro; Mauricio Soto |
| Abstract: | We introduce a novel measure of cross-country road quality based on the travel mean speed between large cities from Google Maps. This measure is useful to assess road infrastructure and access gaps. Our Mean Speed (MS) score is easier to estimate and update than traditional gauges of road network quality which rely on official reports, surveys (i.e., World Economic Forum’s Quality of Roads Perception survey), or satellite imaging (i.e., World Bank’s Rural Access Index). In a sample of over 160 countries, we find that MS scores range between 38 km/h (23.6 mph) and 107 km/h (66.5 mph). We show that the MS score is a strong proxy for road quality and access. |
| Keywords: | Road Quality; Sustainable Development Goals; Access to Infrastructure; MS score; road infrastructure; road network characteristic; B. geometric mean speed Score; Infrastructure; Income; Africa; Global |
| Date: | 2022–05–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/095&r= |
| By: | Jakovich, Scott; Reeb, Tyler |
| Abstract: | This white paper provides educational and policy-driven approaches to sustainable transportation workforce development in the transit sector with a focus on knowledge transfer and training strategies for zero-emission bus technologies. The authors draw from a comprehensive survey of national research, interviews with transit leaders, and case studies to identify the most critical technology transfer gaps in the adoption of zero-emission bus technologies. The paper concludes with strategic transit workforce priorities and related recommendations for transit leaders, educational partners, and policy makers. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Business, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Zero-emission, transit, battery-electric, fuel-cell, workforce development, buses, sustainable transportation |
| Date: | 2022–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3jb4b73d&r= |
| By: | Rodrigo Gandia; Fabio Antonialli; Julia Oliveira; Lucas Patrício; Joel Sugano; Isabelle Nicolaï (LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - CentraleSupélec - Université Paris-Saclay); Izabela Cardoso Oliveira |
| Abstract: | Mobility as a Service (MaaS) goal is to offer tailored-made on-demand mobility solutions by integrating on a single service, public and private transport modes. However, the concept is still uncertain, and its current development and applicability is centered on developed countries. On the other hand, we advocate that MaaS is modular, adaptable and applicable to several realities. In developing countries where public transport is mostly inefficient and insufficient, MaaS schemes could help to "balance the scale" with private transportation offerings, such as: rides (casual carpooling). Thereby, our general objective was to identify the motivating factors of the practice of casual carpooling and propose a strategy to implement it in a MaaS scheme. The survey was applied to 307 university students in the city Lavras-Brazil. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistical techniques and Web Scraping. We assumed that the casual carpooling is sustained by solidarity; simplicity and agility; no costs to passengers; and pickup points. As strategy to implement it, 4 pillars were identified: unified drop-off points; modal customization; remuneration for credit; and no costs for passengers. We concluded that casual carpooling may be a supplement mode on MaaS schemes in lastmiles commutes or in places with inefficient public transport. |
| Keywords: | Mobility as a Service,Casual carpooling,Consumer behavior |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03687581&r= |
| By: | Kensuke Ohtake |
| Abstract: | We extend the core-periphery model with differentiated agriculture with transport cost to those on discrete and continuous multi-regional space and investigate the stability of homogeneous stationary solution, especially for the model on a continuous periodic space. Unstable eigenfunctions can be stable when manufacturing transport cost is sufficiently high, but become unstable when the cost is lower than a certain critical point. As the transport cost decreases further below another critical point, the eigenfunction becomes stable again. It can be observed numerically that the unstable area, which is the range of the transport cost between those two critical points, generally tends to expand with the frequency increases limited to even or odd numbers only. |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2206.01040&r= |
| By: | Stef Garasto; Jyldyz Djumalieva; Karlis Kanders; Rachel Wilcock; Cath Sleeman |
| Abstract: | This paper shows how novel data, in the form of online job adverts, can be used to enrich social labour market statistics. We use millions of job adverts to provide granular estimates of the vacancy stock broken down by location, occupation and skill category. To derive these estimates, we build on previous work and deploy methodologies for a) converting the flow of job adverts into a stock and b) adjusting this stock to ensure it is representative of the underlying economy. Our results benefit from the use of duration data at the level of individual vacancies. We also introduce a new iteration of Nesta’s skills taxonomy. This is the first iteration to blend an expert-derived collection of skills with the skills extracted from job adverts. These methodological advances allow us to analyse which skill sets are sought by employers, how these vary across Travel To Work Areas in the UK and how skill demand evolves over time. For example, we find that there is considerable geographical variability in skill demand, with the stock varying more than five-fold across locations. At the same time, most of the demand is concentrated among three categories: "Business, law and finance", "Science, manufacturing and engineering" and "Digital". Together, these account for more than 60 per cent of all skills demanded. The type of intelligence presented in this report could be used to support both local and national decision makers in responding to recent labour market disruptions. |
| Keywords: | big data, labour demand, machine learning, online job adverts, skills, word embeddings |
| JEL: | C18 J23 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsr:escoed:escoe-dp-2021-02&r= |
| By: | Shania Bhalotia; Swati Dhingra; Fjolla Kondirolli |
| Abstract: | Many developing economies have large informal sectors and growing urban youth populations, who lack basic social protections at work. The CEP surveyed 8,500 workers aged 18 to 40 in urban India to understand their experiences at work during Covid-19. The survey was conducted between May and July 2020. As in many countries, unemployment increased dramatically. 15.5 percent of workers lost their jobs and 21.7 percent worked zero hours during the survey months. Unlike many developed and some developing economies, 52 percent of urban workers went without work or pay and received no financial assistance to tide over the crisis. |
| Keywords: | India, urban workers, cities, growth, Covid-19 |
| Date: | 2020–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcvd:cepcovid-19-008&r= |