nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2022‒07‒11
forty-nine papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. New Schools and New Classmates: The Disruption and Peer Group Effects of School Reassignment By Darryl V. Hill; Rodney P. Hughes; Matthew A. Lenard; David D. Liebowitz; Lindsay C. Page
  2. Heterogeneous Effects and Spillovers of Macroprudential Policy in an Agent-Based Model of the UK Housing Market By Farmer, J. Doyne; Carro, Adrian; Hinterschweiger, Marc; Uluc, Arzu
  3. Broken windows policing and crime: Evidence from 80 Colombian cities By Daniel Mejía; Ervyn Norza; Santiago Tobón; Martín Vanegas-Arias
  4. Housing Demand and Remote Work By John A. Mondragon; Johannes Wieland
  5. Do Class Closures Affect Students' Achievements? Heterogeneous effects of students' socioeconomic backgrounds By OIKAWA Masato; TANAKA Ryuichi; BESSHO Shun-ichiro; KAWAMURA Akira; NOGUCHI Haruko
  6. Do Funds for More Teachers Improve Student Outcomes? By Nicolai T. Borgen; Lars J. Kirkebøen; Andreas Kotsadam; Oddbjørn Raaum
  7. What a difference a full day makes: Evidence from new schools in Fortaleza By Estrada, Ricardo; Hatrick, Agustina; Llambi, Cecilia
  8. Does teacher subjective well-being influence students' learning achievement? Evidence from public basic education in Peru By José María Renteíra; Dante Solano
  9. Measuring the Value of Rent Stabilization and Understanding its Implications for Racial Inequality: Evidence from New York City By Chen, Ruoyu; Jiang, Hanchen; Quintero, Luis E.
  10. Workplace Skills as Regional Capabilities: Relatedness, Complexity and Industrial Diversification of Regions By Duygu Buyukyazici; Leonardo Mazzoni; Massimo Riccaboni; Francesco Serti
  11. The Effects of College Capital Projects on Student Outcome By Stephen Gibbons; Claudia Hupkau; Sandra McNally; Henry G. Overman
  12. Local Shocks and Internal Migration: The Disparate Effects of Robots and Chinese Imports in the US By Marius Faber; Andrés P. Sarto; Marco Tabellini
  13. Learning Loss and Students’ Social Origins During the Covid-19 Pandemic in Italy By Nicola Bazoli; Sonia Marzadro; Antonio Schizzerotto; Loris Vergolini
  14. Robotization, Internal Migration and Rural Depopulation in Austria By Bekhtiar, Karim
  15. Classifying Smart City Startups: The Smart City Index By M. Hermse; I. Nijland; M. Picari; Mark Sanders
  16. Rational housing demand bubble By Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard; Xavier Raurich; Thomas Seegmuller
  17. Can We Grow with our Children? The Effects of a Comprehensive Early Childhood Development Program By Britta Rude
  18. What’s the rush? New housing market absorption rate metrics and the incentive to slow housing supply By Murray, Cameron
  19. The Effects of Capital Controls on Housing Prices By Yang Zhou
  20. Peers Affect Personality Development By Shan, Xiaoyue; Zölitz, Ulf
  21. Population Adjustment to Asymmetric Labour Market Shocks in India: A Comparison to Europe and the United States at Two Different Regional Levels By Braschke, Franziska; Puhani, Patrick A.
  22. Industrial Robots, and Information and Communication Technology: The Employment Effects in EU Labour Markets By Stefan Jestl
  23. Tackling air pollution in dense urban areas: The case of Santiago, Chile By Ioannis Tikoudis; Walid Oueslati; Tobias Udsholt
  24. Socioeconomic Gradients in Test Scores across Latin American and the Caribbean By Carneiro, Pedro; Toppeta, Alessandro
  25. A new dataset to study a century of innovation in Europe and in the US By Antonin Bergeaud; Cyril Verluise
  26. Teacher bias or measurement error bias? Evidence from track recommendations By Thomas van Huizen
  27. Spatial inequalities in educational opportunities: The role of public policies By Katzkowicz, Noemí; Querejeta, Martina; Rosá, Tatiana
  28. Wealth of Two Nations: The U.S. Racial Wealth Gap, 1860-2020 By Ellora Derenoncourt; Chi Hyun Kim; Moritz Kuhn; Moritz Schularick
  29. Robbing Peter to Pay Paul? The Redistribution of Wealth Caused by Rent Control By Kenneth R. Ahern; Marco Giacoletti
  30. No Surprises, Please: Voting Costs and Electoral Turnout By Jean-Victor Alipour; Valentin Lindlacher
  31. Uncovering Heterogeneous Regional Impacts of Chinese Monetary Policy By Tsang, Andrew
  32. Wealth of Two Nations: The U.S. Racial Wealth Gap, 1860-2020 By Ellora Derenoncourt; Chi Hyun Kim; Moritz Kuhn; Moritz Schularick
  33. Is Hospital Quality Predictive of Pandemic Deaths? Evidence from US Counties By Johannes S. Kunz; Carol Propper
  34. Job Location Decisions and the Effect of Children on the Employment Gender Gap By Albanese, Andrea; Nieto, Adrián; Tatsiramos, Konstantinos
  35. Off to a bad start: youth nonemployment and labor market outcomes later in life By Filomena, Mattia; Giorgetti, Isabella; Picchio, Matteo
  36. Regional policy brief on building urban economic resilience during and after COVID-19 in Latin America and the Caribbean By Hernández Rosario, Anna Cristina
  37. Are Grandparents a Good Substitute for Parents as the Primary Caregiver? The Impact of Grandparents on Children's Academic Performance By Wang, Sophie Xuefei; Bansak, Cynthia
  38. Incentive-compatible public transportation fares with random inspection By In\'acio B\'o; Chiu Yu Ko
  39. How Sustainable Is Swiss Real Estate? Evidence from Institutional Property Portfolios By Fabio Alessandrini; Eric Jondeau; Ghislaine Lang; Evert Reins
  40. The effect of COVID-19 on long-distance transport services in France By Florent Laroche
  41. Nonparametric Measure-transportation-based Methods for Directional Data By Marc Hallin; H Lui; Thomas Verdebout
  42. Grads on the Go: Measuring College-Specific Labor Markets for Graduates By Johnathan G. Conzelmann; Steven W. Hemelt; Brad Hershbein; Shawn M. Martin; Andrew Simon; Kevin M. Stange
  43. Covid-19 and market power in local credit markets: the role of digitalization By Thiago Christiano Silva; Sergio Rubens Stancato de Souza; Solange Maria Guerra
  44. Can the evolution of joint savings agreements counter the effect of higher costs of migration on its intensity? By Stark, Oded; Jakubek, Marcin
  45. Preferences predict who commits crime among young men By Thomas Epper; Ernst Fehr; Kristoffer Balle Hvidberg; Claus Thustrup Kreiner; Soren Leth-Petersen; Gregers Nytoft Rasmussen
  46. On the Effect of Triadic Closure on Network Segregation By Rediet Abebe; Nicole Immorlica; Jon Kleinberg; Brendan Lucier; Ali Shirali
  47. The Spatial Distribution of Public Support for AI Research By Chowdhury, Farhat; Link, Albert; van Hasselt, Martijn
  48. Parcel locker stations: A solution for the last mile? By Niederprüm, Antonia; van Lienden, Willem
  49. Do Management Practices Matter in Further Education? By Sandra McNally; Luis Schmidt; Anna Valero

  1. By: Darryl V. Hill; Rodney P. Hughes; Matthew A. Lenard; David D. Liebowitz; Lindsay C. Page
    Abstract: Policy makers periodically consider using student assignment policies to improve educational outcomes by altering the socio-economic and academic skill composition of schools. We exploit the quasi-random reassignment of students across schools in the Wake County Public School System to estimate the academic and behavioral effects of being reassigned to a different school and, separately, of shifts in peer characteristics. We rule out all but substantively small effects of transitioning to a different school as a result of reassignment on test scores, course grades and chronic absenteeism. In contrast, increasing the achievement levels of students' peers improves students' math and ELA test scores but harms their ELA course grades. Test score benefits accrue primarily to students from higher-income families, though students with lower family income or lower prior performance still benefit. Our results suggest that student assignment policies that relocate students to avoid the over-concentration of lower-achieving students or those from lower-income families can accomplish equity goals (despite important caveats), although these reassignments may reduce achievement for students from higher- income backgrounds.
    JEL: H75 I21 I24 I28 J24
    Date: 2022–05
  2. By: Farmer, J. Doyne; Carro, Adrian; Hinterschweiger, Marc; Uluc, Arzu
    Abstract: We develop an agent-based model of the UK housing market to study the impact of macroprudential policy experiments on key housing market indicators. The heterogeneous nature of this model enables us to assess the effects of such experiments on the housing, rental and mortgage markets not only in the aggregate, but also at the level of individual households and sub-segments, such as first-time buyers, homeowners, buy-to-let investors, and renters. This approach can therefore offer a broad picture of the disaggregated effects of financial stability policies. The model is calibrated using a large selection of micro-data, including data from a leading UK real estate online search engine as well as loan-level regulatory data. With a series of comparative statics exercises, we investigate the impact of (i) a hard loan-to-value limit, and (ii) a soft loan-to-income limit, allowing for a limited share of unconstrained new mortgages. We find that, first, these experiments tend to mitigate the house price cycle by reducing credit availability and therefore leverage. Second, an experiment targeting a specific risk measure may also affect other risk metrics, thus necessitating a careful calibration of the policy to achieve a given reduction in risk. Third, experiments targeting the owner-occupier housing market can spill over to the rental sector, as a compositional shift in home ownership from owner-occupiers to buy-to-let investors affects both the supply of and demand for rental properties.
    Keywords: Agent-based model, housing market, macroprudential policy, borrower-based measures, buy-to-let sector
    JEL: D1 D31 E58 G51 R21 R31
    Date: 2022–04
  3. By: Daniel Mejía; Ervyn Norza; Santiago Tobón; Martín Vanegas-Arias
    Abstract: We study the effects of broken windows policing on crime using geo-located crime and arrest reports for 80 Colombian cities. Broadly defined, broken windows policing consists of intensifying arrests -sometimes for minor offenses- to deter potential criminals. To estimate causal effects, we build grids of 200 × 200 meters over the urban perimeter of all cities and produce event studies to look at the effects of shocks in police activity in the periods to follow. We use spikes in the number of arrests with no warrant -which are more likely associated with unplanned police presence- as a proxy for shocks in broken windows policing. As expected, we observe an increase in crimes during the shock period, as each arrest implies at least one crime report. In the following periods, crimes decrease both in the place of the arrests and the surroundings. With many treated grids and many places exposed to spillovers, these effects add up. On aggregate, the crime reduction offsets the observed increase during the shock period. Direct effects are more immediate and precise at low crime grids, but beneficial spillovers seem more relevant at crime hot spots. The effects of broken windows policing circumscribe to cities with low or moderate organized crime, consistent with criminal organizations planning their activities more systematically than disorganized criminals.
    Keywords: crime, violence, police, arrests, spillovers
    JEL: K42 O17 E26 J48 C93
    Date: 2022–06–16
  4. By: John A. Mondragon; Johannes Wieland
    Abstract: What explains record U.S. house price growth since late 2019? We show that the shift to remote work explains over one half of the 23.8 percent national house price increase over this period. Using variation in remote work exposure across U.S. metropolitan areas we estimate that an additional percentage point of remote work causes a 0.93 percent increase in house prices after controlling for negative spillovers from migration. This cross-sectional estimate combined with the aggregate shift to remote work implies that remote work raised aggregate U.S. house prices by 15.1 percent. Using a model of remote work and location choice we argue that this estimate is a lower bound on the aggregate effect. Our results imply a fundamentals-based explanation for the recent increases in housing costs over speculation or financial factors, and that the evolution of remote work is likely to have large effects on the future path of house prices and inflation.
    JEL: E31 E66 M11 R21 R31
    Date: 2022–05
  5. By: OIKAWA Masato; TANAKA Ryuichi; BESSHO Shun-ichiro; KAWAMURA Akira; NOGUCHI Haruko
    Abstract: This paper examines how class closures affect the academic achievements of Japanese students in primary and middle schools, with a special focus on the heterogeneous effects of the socioeconomic backgrounds of students’ households. Utilizing the administrative data of students from a city in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area, we estimated the effects of class closures due to flu epidemics, on the students’ language and math test scores. We find that class closures adversely affect math test scores of economically disadvantaged students. The magnitudes of the negative effects on disadvantaged students are heterogeneous by subject, grade in school, gender, timing of class closures, and students’ pre-class-closure achievements. Male students from economically disadvantaged households are more susceptible to class closures, and those with relatively low achievements before class closures suffer more seriously from them. The deleterious effects among economically disadvantaged male students are driven not only by reductions in class hours in school, but also by increases in time spent watching TV and playing video games. We also find that school resources can mitigate the negative impact of class closure among economically disadvantaged students. These results indicate the importance of public programs in preventing a negative temporal shock to student learning environments.
    Date: 2022–05
  6. By: Nicolai T. Borgen; Lars J. Kirkebøen; Andreas Kotsadam; Oddbjørn Raaum
    Abstract: We investigate the effects of a large-scale Norwegian reform that provided extra teachers to 166 lower secondary schools with relatively high student-teacher ratios and low average grades. We exploit these two margins using a regression discontinuity setup and find that the reform reduced the student-teacher ratio by around 10% (from a base level of 22 students per teacher), with no crowding out of other school resources or parental support. However, the reform did not improve test scores and longer-term academic outcomes, and we can reject even small positive effects. We do find that the reform improved the school environment from the students’ perspective, but with the largest impact on aspects most weakly associated with better academic outcomes.
    Keywords: student-teacher-ratio, class size, test scores, non-cognitive skills, RDD
    JEL: J24 I20
    Date: 2022
  7. By: Estrada, Ricardo; Hatrick, Agustina; Llambi, Cecilia
    Abstract: Although longer school days are in increasing supply, a lack of consensus about their effectiveness persists. Motivated by this gap, this paper studies the effect of enrolling in a new set of full-time secondary schools in the city of Fortaleza, Brazil. For identification, enrollment is instrumented with the distance from the student’s graduating primary school to the closest fulltime school in operation at that time. The results show that enrollment in a full-time school increases lower-secondary-school graduation by 11 percentage points and math test scores by 0.22 standard deviations. These findings highlight the potential of full-time schools to significantly improve student outcomes.
    Keywords: Desarrollo, Docentes, Educación, Estudiantes, Investigación socioeconómica, Políticas públicas, Sector académico,
    Date: 2022
  8. By: José María Renteíra (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne); Dante Solano (University of Leeds)
    Abstract: We estimate the influence of teacher subjective well-being (TSWB) on the mathematics learning achievement of public-school students in Peru. Using the National Teacher Survey and the Census Strudent Assessment, after exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis we identify three dimensions of TSWB: i)workplace relationships, ii) working conditions, and iii) living conditions. We estimate instrumental variables and perform quantile regressions to disentangle the relationship between TSWB and students' learning out-comes. Our results show that TSWB has an inverted U-shaped influence on test scores, suggesting the presence of the "too-much-of-a-good-thing effect", and therefore the existence of an optimal threshold after which its effect becomes detrimental. Workplace relationships appear to be the most influential TSWB factor on students' academic achievement
    Keywords: Teacher subjective well-being; learning achievement
    JEL: A12 C36 I21 I31
    Date: 2022–05
  9. By: Chen, Ruoyu; Jiang, Hanchen; Quintero, Luis E.
    Abstract: Assessing rent discounts implied by rent regulation is challenging because the counterfac- tual rents of regulated units in the unregulated market are not observed. We estimate these counterfactual rents and predict the quality-adjusted rent discount for each rent-stabilized unit in New York City (NYC) using novel data from 2002 to 2017. We find robust average rent discounts of $410 per month (34% of contract rents of stabilized units). The aggregate size of these discounts in NYC is between 4 to 5.4 billion USD per year, roughly 10-14% of the federal budget on means-tested housing programs. We document that discounts: (1) increase linearly with housing tenure; (2) are not progressively distributed; (3) are larger in Manhattan and increasing in gentrifying neighborhoods; and (4) are three times larger for households correctly aware of being beneficiaries. We find that rent stabilization has disproportionately benefited White tenants. Not only are they more likely to occupy rent-stabilized units conditional on observables, but they also receive higher discounts. On average, Black stabilized tenants get $150, Hispanics $135, and AAPI $43 less on monthly rent discounts than White stabilized ten- ants. This racial gap, which has shrunk over time, is mainly explained by the uneven sorting of households of different races across locations.
    Keywords: Rent Stabilization,Rent Regulation,Hedonic Pricing,Policy Incidence,Racial Inequality
    JEL: R28 J15 H75 L51
    Date: 2022
  10. By: Duygu Buyukyazici; Leonardo Mazzoni; Massimo Riccaboni; Francesco Serti
    Abstract: The literature reaches a unanimous agreement that industrial diversification is path-dependent because new industries build on preexisting capabilities of regions that are partly embodied and reflected in the skills of regions’ workforce. This paper explicitly accounts for regional capabilities as workforce skills to build skill relatedness and complexity measures, skill-spaces, for 107 Italian regions for the period 2013-2019. Data-driven techniques we use reveal that skill-spaces form two highly polarised clusters into social-cognitive and technical-physical skills. We show that industries have a higher (lower) probability of developing comparative advantage if their required skill set is (not) similar to those available in the region regardless of the skill type. We find evidence that similarity to technical-physical skills and higher complexity in social cognitive skills yields the highest probabilities of regional competitive advantage.
    Keywords: Skill relatedness; Economic complexity; Industrial specialisation; Regional capabilities; Regional diversification.
    JEL: J24 O18 R10 R23
    Date: 2022–06
  11. By: Stephen Gibbons; Claudia Hupkau; Sandra McNally; Henry G. Overman
    Abstract: The general debate on the relationship between school resources and student outcomes is an old and controversial one (for reviews see, for example, Hanushek, 1989, 1997 and Gibbons and McNally, 2013), although there is less evidence on the effect of capital expenditure. This paper provides new evidence by studying the effect of capital expenditure in Further Education (FE) Colleges in England. These colleges provide post-compulsory schooling education, similar to US Community Colleges. About half of school leavers in England attend FE colleges, though they are generally considered the poor relation of schools and universities, enrolling lower achieving students and with less resources per student (Britton et al. 2019).1 Capital investment projects in these colleges have the potential to improve educational outcomes for large numbers of disadvantaged students and thus to facilitate social mobility. These colleges also have an important role to play in providing the intermediate and higher technical skills which are widely regarded as being in short supply in Britain.
    Keywords: Schools, Education, , Social mobility, FE, Further Education
    Date: 2021–11–23
  12. By: Marius Faber; Andrés P. Sarto; Marco Tabellini
    Abstract: Migration is a key mechanism through which local labor markets adjust to economic shocks. In this paper, we analyze the migration response of American workers to two of the most important shocks that hit US manufacturing since the 1990s: Chinese import competition and the introduction of industrial robots. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in exposure across US local labor markets over time, we establish a new fact. Even though both shocks drastically reduced employment in the manufacturing sector, only robots led to a sizable decline in population size. We provide evidence that negative employment spillovers outside manufacturing, caused by robots but not by Chinese imports, can explain the different migration responses. We interpret our findings through the lens of a model that highlights two mechanisms: the cost savings that each shock provides and the degree of complementarity between directly and indirectly exposed industries.
    JEL: J21 J23 J61
    Date: 2022–05
  13. By: Nicola Bazoli; Sonia Marzadro; Antonio Schizzerotto; Loris Vergolini
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is twofold. First, it is intended to establish the intensity of learning loss in reading and mathematics experienced in Italy by fifth, eighth and thirteenth graders because of school closures owing to the Covid-19 pandemic. Second, it aims to demonstrate whether school closures have or have not affected the educational inequalities associated with the social position of the students’ families, their geographic area of residence, their migrant status and their high school track. To estimate these two possible effects, we exploit INVALSI data collected in school years 2018/2019 and 2020/2021 and rely on a counterfactual approach based on coarsened exact matching, where students belonging to the 2020/21 cohort represent the treated group and those of the 2018/19 cohort make up the control group. Our results indicate that the learning loss is definitely severe among students attending grade thirteen and eight, while it is less pronounced and involves only mathematics among fifth graders. Moreover, according to our hypotheses, the intensity of the learning loss turns out to be substantially the same across social strata of students’ origins and their remaining ascriptive traits.
    Keywords: Learning loss, Social inequalities, Covid-19, Italy
    JEL: I21 I24
    Date: 2022–06
  14. By: Bekhtiar, Karim (IHS, Vienna)
    Abstract: Internal migration flows from rural to urban areas have greatly contributed to population declines in many rural areas across both Europe and the US. At the same time there is mounting evidence for a tight connection between internal migration and shifts in labor demand, with the latter being heavily affected by the rise of automation technologies. Therefore this paper analyzes the effects industrial robotization has had on manufacturing employment and internal migration in Austria during the period 2003-2016, specifically focusing on rural-to-urban migration flows. The results show that robotization has caused significant declines in manufacturing employment to which populations reacted by increased out-migration. This migratory response takes the form of rural-to-urban migration, thereby contributing to population declines in many rural areas in Austria. These rural-to-urban movements are primarily driven by young and medium/low skilled individuals, i.e. those groups that bear the strongest shock incidence.
    Keywords: Employment, internal migration, robots, rural depopulation
    JEL: J21 J23 J61 R23
    Date: 2022–06
  15. By: M. Hermse; I. Nijland; M. Picari; Mark Sanders
    Abstract: In this paper we present an index for coding new ventures, projects and firms as “smart-city†or not. The index is based on a systematic assessment of some 70+ definitions of the concept from the literature. Based on this analysis, we propose a 7-item coding scheme based on venture descriptions that are commonly available from public data sources. We identified two necessary and 5 “intensity†items and propose an algorithm that translates these items into a single smartc-city index (SCI) that expresses the degree to which an activity is contributing to smart city development in a score between 1 and 5. We then show the results of coding 759 new ventures in different datasets to illustrate that our index gives sensible results. Some 90 (11%) of these ventures could be classified as “smart city†in our sample, scoring an average of about 3.3, with significant variation around these averages that make intuitive sense. Our index can be used in a broad range of applications.
    Keywords: Urban Development, Smart City, Entrepreneurship, Innovation, DataCollection
    Date: 2021
  16. By: Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard (Univ. Lyon, Université Lumière Lyon 2, GATE UMR 5824, F-69130 Ecully, France); Xavier Raurich (Departament d'Economia and CREB, Universitat de Barcelona); Thomas Seegmuller (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, AMSE, Marseille France. 5 Boulevard Maurice Bourdet CS 50498 F-13205 Marseille cedex 1, France)
    Abstract: We provide a unified framework with demand for housing over the life cycle and financial frictions to analyze the existence and macroeconomic effects of rational housing bubbles. We distinguish a housing price bubble, defined as the difference between the housing market price and its fundamental value, from a housing demand bubble, which corresponds to a situation where a pure speculative housing demand exists. In an overlapping generation exchange economy, we show that no housing price bubble occurs. However, a housing demand bubble may occur, generating a boom in housing prices and a drop in the interest rate, when households face a binding borrowing constraint. Multiplicity of steady states and endogenous fluctuations can occur when credit market imperfections are moderate. These fluctuations involve transitions between equilibria with and without a housing demand bubble that generate large fluctuations in housing prices consistent with observed patterns. We finally extend the basic framework to a production economy and we show that a housing demand bubble increases the housing price, housing price to income ratio and economic growth.
    Keywords: Bubble; Housing; Self-fulfilling fluctuations
    JEL: E32 E44 R21
    Date: 2022
  17. By: Britta Rude
    Abstract: I exploit the staggered roll-out of a universal early childhood development program in Chile to assess the impact of a comprehensive approach to early childhood development on outcomes in middle childhood. Using variation across time and municipalities, I study outcomes such as school performance, cognitive development, parental stress, household relationships, and health. I use administrative data on students as well as newborns in Chile, standardized test scores of all 4th graders, and an extensive early childhood development survey. I find positive and significant effects on school performance. The effect is less pronounced for girls and the socioeconomically vulnerable population. The improvements in learning outcomes are driven by improvements in intra-household relations. Comprehensive programs are powerful tools but have several flaws.
    Keywords: Education and inequality, government policy, children, human capital
    JEL: I24 I28 I38 J13 J24 O15
    Date: 2022
  18. By: Murray, Cameron (The University of Sydney)
    Abstract: Why do housing developers voluntarily slow their rate of new housing production when they make money from selling new homes? This question lies at the heart of current aca- demic and political debates about the effect of planning and zoning on housing markets. Any answer must consider the market absorption rate—the rate of new sales that max- imises economic gains to property ownership over time. How this rate varies with market conditions, outside of any potential planning constraints, is hard to observe. We propose four new absorption rate metrics; 1) the development rate ratio (DRR), 2) development rate variability (DRV), 3) the delay premium ratio (DPR) and 4) delay premium variability (DPV). We calculate these metrics for a sample of nine approved major Australian housing subdivisions (>3,000 dwellings), showing the enormous variation in the pace of new housing lot supply and gains from delay. The average rate of new housing production is 34% of the maximum rate (DRR) and the minimum rate is just 7% of the maximum (DRV). Total revenue in these sample projects was 82% higher than the counterfactual of setting the price at the start and selling all new lots at that minimum price (the DPR metric). A 204% difference in total revenue was available if all new dwellings were sold at the highest observed price rather than the lowest price over the project life (the DPV metric).
    Date: 2022–05–22
  19. By: Yang Zhou (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University and Junir Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, JAPAN)
    Abstract: Policymakers increasingly use capital control policies (i.e., capital flow management) to manage capital flows. However, whether the implementation of such policies can effectively affect housing prices and to what extent is less discussed. In this paper, we study the effects of four types of granular capital control polices on housing prices using a large cross-country panel of 53 economies from 1995 to 2017. We find that the estimated effects of capital controls are distinct for different capital flow types and flow directions, but most capital control indices appear to reduce housing prices. Specifically, we find that capital controls have asymmetric effects on housing prices for advanced and emerging economies. The negative effects of capital controls on housing prices are mainly driven by pre-crisis subsample. This means that capital controls have been in effect several times before Global Financial Crisis. We also estimate the effects for boom and slump periods respectively and find that capital control policies are implemented in an acyclical way. Since there exists endogeneity for capital control on real estate transactions, we further use inverse probability weights to rebalance capital control actions and find that this method can weaken the negative effects on housing prices, and the attenuation effects can be attributed to endogenous factors.
    Keywords: Capital control policy; Housing price; Local projections; Inverse probability; Weighted regression adjusted estimator
    JEL: F21 F32 F38 F41 G28
    Date: 2022–06
  20. By: Shan, Xiaoyue (University of Pennsylvania); Zölitz, Ulf (University of Zurich)
    Abstract: Do the people around us influence our personality? To answer this question, we conduct an experiment with 543 university students who we randomly assign to study groups. Our results show that students become more similar to their peers along several dimensions. Students with more competitive peers become more competitive, students with more open-minded peers become more open-minded, and students with more conscientious peers become more conscientious. We see no significant effects of peers’ extraversion, agreeableness, or neuroticism. To explain these results, we propose a simple model of personality development under the influence of peers. Consistent with the model’s prediction, personality spillovers are concentrated in traits predictive of performance. Students adopt personality traits that are productive in the university context from their peers. Our findings highlight that socialization with peers can influence personality development.
    Keywords: peer effects, malleability, personality, experiment
    JEL: I21 I24 J24
    Date: 2022–04
  21. By: Braschke, Franziska; Puhani, Patrick A.
    Abstract: This paper uses Indian EUS-NSSO data on 32 states/union territories and 570 districts for a bi-annual panel with 5 waves to estimate how regional population reacts to asymmetric shocks. These shocks are measured by non-employment rates, unemployment rates, and wages in fixed-effects regressions which effectively use changes in these indicators over time within regions as identifying information. Because we include region and time effects, we interpret regression-adjusted population changes as proxies for regional migration. Comparing the results with those for the United States and the European Union, the most striking difference is that, in India, we do not find any significant reactions to asymmetric non-employment shocks at the state level, only at the district level, whereas the estimates are statistically significant and of similar size for the state/NUTS-1 and district level in both the United States and Europe. We find that Indian workers react to asymmetric regional shocks by adjusting up to a third of a regional non-employment shock through migration within two years. This is somewhat higher than the response to non-employment shocks in the United States and the European Union but somewhat lower than the response to unemployment shocks in these economies. In India, the unemployment rate does not seem to be a reliable measure of regional shocks, at least we find no signi ficant effects for it. However, we find a significant population response to regional wage differentials in India at both the state and district level.
    Keywords: Migration,Population,Regional Convergence,Non-Employment, Unemployment,Wages
    JEL: J61
    Date: 2022
  22. By: Stefan Jestl (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: This paper explores the effects of industrial robots and information and communication technology (ICT) on regional employment in EU countries. The empirical analysis relies on a harmonised comprehensive regional dataset, which combines business statistics and national and regional accounts data. This rich dataset enables us to provide detailed insights into the employment effects of automation and computerisation in EU regions for the period 2001-2016. The results suggest relatively weak effects on regional total employment dynamics. However, employment effects differ between manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries. Industrial robots show negative employment effects in local manufacturing industries, but positive employment effects in local non-manufacturing industries. While the negative effect is concentrated in particular local manufacturing industries, the positive effect operates in local service industries. IT investments show positive employment effects only in local manufacturing industries, while CT investments are shown to be irrelevant for employment dynamics. In contrast, software and database investments have had a predominantly negative impact on local employment in both local manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries.
    Keywords: Industrial robots, ICT, EU labour markets, employment effects
    JEL: J23 L60 O33 R11
    Date: 2022–06
  23. By: Ioannis Tikoudis; Walid Oueslati; Tobias Udsholt
    Abstract: Reducing air pollution is a major policy challenge, especially in densely populated urban areas where human exposure to emissions is considerable. This paper develops and examines a series of scenarios for the evolution of transport-related emissions in the area of Santiago, Chile. The analysis suggests that ramping up efforts to electrify the bus fleet may eliminate 25% of the CO2 and at least 10% of the remaining air pollutant emissions in 2050. These figures increase to 45% and 30%, respectively, if rapid electrification is accompanied by tax schemes. The paper highlights the potential synergies of policies curbing climate change and tacking air pollution from the viewpoint of urban transport.
    Keywords: air pollution, bus electrification, carbon tax, road pricing, urban transport
    JEL: Q52 Q53 Q55 R13 R41 R48 H23
    Date: 2022–06–16
  24. By: Carneiro, Pedro; Toppeta, Alessandro
    Abstract: In this paper we document gaps in math and reading achievement between children whose mothers have completed at least upper secondary education and those who have not, using test scores from third and sixth graders across multiple countries in LAC, in 2006 and 2013. There are substantial differences across countries in these gaps, and there are also differences in how they change over time. Interestingly, differences in these gaps are not correlated with differences in income inequality across countries. They are however strongly correlated with the levels of socio-economic segregation across schools in different countries.
    Keywords: Educación, Estudiantes, Niñez, Políticas públicas, Sector académico,
    Date: 2022
  25. By: Antonin Bergeaud; Cyril Verluise
    Abstract: Innovation is an important driver of potential growth but quantitative evidence on the dynamics of innovative activities in the long-run are hardly documented due to the lack of data, especially in Europe. In this paper, we introduce PatentCity, a novel dataset on the location and nature of patentees from the 19th century using information derived from an automated extraction of relevant information from patent documents published by the German, French, British and US Intellectual Property offices. This dataset has been constructed with the view of facilitating the exploration of the geography of innovation and includes additional information on citizenship and occupation of inventors.
    Keywords: history of innovation, patent, text as data
    Date: 2022–12
  26. By: Thomas van Huizen
    Abstract: This study examines to what extent measurement error in test scores explains track recommendation bias in the Netherlands. Track recommendations play an important role in allocating children to secondary school tracks. However, track recommendations are subjective evaluations of a child's skills and have been criticized for being biased. Previous studies have shown that children from low socio-economic status (SES) families receive lower track recommendations than their peers from high SES families, conditional on standardized test scores. While it is often argued that this is evidence of teacher bias, such a claim is invalid in the presence of (random) measurement error in test scores. Standardized tests measure the child’s true skills with error and the resulting measurement error bias spills over to the estimates of SES differences. This study corrects for measurement error bias in test scores by applying an instrumental variable strategy. The findings show that models that do not address measurement error in test scores substantially overestimate low-high SES differences in track recommendations. Overall, the presumed teacher bias can to a large extent be explained by measurement error in test scores.
    Keywords: teacher bias, discrimination, socio-economic inequality, measurement error
    Date: 2021
  27. By: Katzkowicz, Noemí; Querejeta, Martina; Rosá, Tatiana
    Abstract: This paper documents spatial patterns in intergenerational mobility at the top of the educational distribution and assess the role of public policies in increasing educational opportunities. Our analysis relies on novel administrative data of public university students in Uruguay’s, a small high income developing country. We first document that the percentage of university students whose parents did not attain university increased 7 p.p between 2002 and 2020. Tough this imply a significant increase in intergenerational mobility spatial inequality still prevails. As a way to reduce this inequality of opportunities, the main public University started a campus expansion policy in 2008. We exploit the time and location variation in the implementation to provide causal evidence of its impact on total enrollment and the share of first-generation university students (mobility at the top). Results from the difference in differences analysis show that the policy was successful in increasing the number of students from localities and the share of students with parents that do not hold a university degree (3% increase) in those localities where campuses opened but also in those 50 kms around. Our results suggest the important role of public policies in the reduction of inequality of opportunities and in increasing mobility at the top.
    Keywords: Desarrollo, Educación, Investigación socioeconómica, Jóvenes, Políticas públicas, Sector académico,
    Date: 2021
  28. By: Ellora Derenoncourt (Princeton University); Chi Hyun Kim (University of Bonn); Moritz Kuhn (University of Bonn); Moritz Schularick (University of Bonn, Sciences Po Paris)
    Abstract: The racial wealth gap is the largest of the economic disparities between Black and white Americans, with a white-to-Black per capita wealth ratio of 6 to 1. It is also among the most persistent. In this paper, we construct the first continuous series on white-to-Black per capita wealth ratios from 1860 to 2020, drawing on historical census data, early state tax records, and historical waves of the Survey of Consumer Finances, among other sources. Incorporating these data into a parsimonious model of wealth accumulation for each racial group, we document the role played by initial conditions, income growth, savings behavior, and capital returns in the evolution of the gap. Given vastly different starting conditions under slavery, racial wealth convergence would remain a distant scenario, even if wealth-accumulating conditions had been equal across the two groups since Emancipation. Relative to this equal-conditions benchmark, we find that observed convergence has followed an even slower path over the last 150 years, with convergence stalling after 1950. Since the 1980s, the wealth gap has widened again as capital gains have predominantly benefited white households, and income convergence has stopped.
    Keywords: Racial inequality, income and wealth inequality
    JEL: J15 N31 N32
    Date: 2022–05
  29. By: Kenneth R. Ahern; Marco Giacoletti
    Abstract: We use the price effects caused by the passage of rent control in St. Paul, Minnesota in 2021, to study the transfer of wealth across income groups. First, we find that rent control caused property values to fall by 6-7%, for an aggregate loss of $1.6 billion. A calibrated model of house prices under rent control attributes a third of these losses to indirect, negative externalities. Second, leveraging administrative parcel-level data, we find that the tenants who gained the most from rent control had higher incomes and were more likely to be white, while the owners who lost the most had lower incomes and were more likely to be minorities. For properties with high-income owners and low-income tenants, the transfer of wealth was close to zero. Thus, to the extent that rent control is intended to transfer wealth from high-income to low-income households, the realized impact of the law was the opposite of its intention.
    JEL: D61 D62 G51 H23 R23 R31 R32 R38
    Date: 2022–05
  30. By: Jean-Victor Alipour; Valentin Lindlacher
    Abstract: We study how shocks to voting costs affect electoral turnout. Individuals whose polling place is relocated face changes to their cost of voting in person due to altered distance and unfamiliarity with the new polling place. Using address-level and precinct-level data, we find that polling place relocations depress turnout by 0.5–0.6 percentage points (p.p.): in-person turnout declines by 0.8–1.1 p.p. and is only partly compensated by a 0.3–0.5 p.p. increase in mail-in voting. However, the drop in turnout is only transitory as mail-in votes balance the decline in in-person votes in subsequent elections. This finding is consistent with inattentiveness to relocations, causing individuals to miss the deadline for requesting mail-in ballots. Some inattentive voters forgo voting today but turn to mail-in voting in ensuing elections. Our results are in line with rational choice models of voting and incompatible with the hypothesis that voting is habit forming.
    Keywords: voter turnout, habit formation, elections, election administration, precincts, polling places
    JEL: D72 D73 D83 R41
    Date: 2022
  31. By: Tsang, Andrew
    Abstract: This paper applies causal machine learning methods to analyze the heterogeneous regional impacts of monetary policy in China. The method uncovers the heterogeneous regional impacts of different monetary policy stances on the provincial figures for real GDP growth, CPI inflation and loan growth compared to the national averages. The varying effects of expansionary and contractionary monetary policy phases on Chinese provinces are highlighted and explained. Subsequently, applying interpretable machine learning, the empirical results show that the credit channel is the main channel affecting the regional impacts of monetary policy. An imminent conclusion of the uneven provincial responses to the "one size fits all" monetary policy is that different policymakers should coordinate their efforts to search for the optimal fiscal and monetary policy mix.
    Keywords: China,monetary policy,regional heterogeneity,machine learning,shadow banking
    JEL: E52 C54 R11 E61
    Date: 2021
  32. By: Ellora Derenoncourt (Princeton University); Chi Hyun Kim (University of Bonn); Moritz Kuhn (University of Bonn); Moritz Schularick (University of Bonn, Sciences Po Paris)
    Abstract: The racial wealth gap is the largest of the economic disparities between Black and white Americans, with a white-to-Black per capita wealth ratio of 6 to 1. It is also among the most persistent. In this paper, we construct the first continuous series on white-to-Black per capita wealth ratios from 1860 to 2020, drawing on historical census data, early state tax records, and historical waves of the Survey of Consumer Finances, among other sources. Incorporating these data into a parsimonious model of wealth accumulation for each racial group, we document the role played by initial conditions, income growth, savings behavior, and capital returns in the evolution of the gap. Given vastly different starting conditions under slavery, racial wealth convergence would remain a distant scenario, even if wealth-accumulating conditions had been equal across the two groups since Emancipation. Relative to this equal-conditions benchmark, we find that observed convergence has followed an even slower path over the last 150 years, with convergence stalling after 1950. Since the 1980s, the wealth gap has widened again as capital gains have predominantly benefited white households, and income convergence has stopped.
    Keywords: Wealth gap, Racial wealth gap, inequality, historical data
    JEL: D63
    Date: 2022–05
  33. By: Johannes S. Kunz (Monash Business School); Carol Propper (Imperial College London)
    Abstract: In the large literature on the spatial-level correlates of COVID-19, the association between quality of hospital care and outcomes has received little attention to date. To examine whether county-level mortality is correlated with measures of hospital performance, we assess daily cumulative deaths and pre-crisis measures of hospital quality, accounting for state fixed-effects and potential confounders. As a measure of quality, we use the pre-pandemic adjusted five-year penalty rates for excess 30-day readmissions following pneumonia admissions for the hospitals accessible to county residents based on ambulance travel patterns. Our adjustment corrects for socio-economic status and down-weighs observations based on small samples. We find that a one-standard-deviation increase in the quality of local hospitals is associated with a 2% lower death rate (relative to the mean of 20 deaths per 10,000 people) one and a half years after the first recorded death.
    Keywords: COVID-19, County-level Deaths, Hospital Quality, Health Care Systems
    JEL: H51 I11 I18
    Date: 2022–06
  34. By: Albanese, Andrea; Nieto, Adrián; Tatsiramos, Konstantinos
    Abstract: We study the effect of childbirth on local and non-local employment dynamics for both men and women using Belgian social security and geo-location data. Applying an eventstudy design that accounts for treatment effect heterogeneity, we show that 75 percent of the effect of the birth of a first child on the overall gender gap in employment is accounted for by gender disparities in non-local employment, with mothers being more likely to give up non-local employment compared to fathers. This gender specialisation is mostly driven by opposing job location responses of men and women to individual, household and regional factors. On the one hand, men do not give up non-local employment after childbirth when they are employed in a high-paid job, have a partner who is not participating in the labour market or experience adverse local labour market conditions, suggesting that fathers trade off better employment opportunities with longer commutes. On the other hand, women give up non-local jobs regardless of their earnings level, their partner's labour market status and local economic conditions, which is consistent with mothers specialising in childcare provision compared to fathers.
    Keywords: gender gap,childbirth,job location,cross-border employment,specialisation
    JEL: J13 J16 J61 C21 C23 J22 R23
    Date: 2022
  35. By: Filomena, Mattia; Giorgetti, Isabella; Picchio, Matteo
    Abstract: We estimate the effect of nonemployment experienced by Italian youth after leaving secondary school on subsequent labor market outcomes. We focus on the impact on earnings and labor market participation both in the short- and in the long-term, up to 25 years since school completion. By estimating a factor analytic model which controls for time-varying unobserved heterogeneity, we find that the negative effect of nonemployment on earnings is especially persistent, being sizeable and statistically significant up to 25 years after school completion, for both men and women. Penalties in terms of participation last instead shorter; they disappear by the 10th year after school completion. Hence, early nonemployment operates by persistently locking the youth who get off to a bad start into low-wage jobs.
    Keywords: youth nonemployment,scarring effects,earnings,labor market participation,factor analytic model
    JEL: J01 J08 J31 J64
    Date: 2022
  36. By: Hernández Rosario, Anna Cristina
    Abstract: This document, prepared in the framework of the United Nations Development Account twelfth tranche residual balance (DAT12A) project “Building Urban Economic Resilience during and after COVID-19”, aims to provide a critical analysis of the challenges faced by Latin American and Caribbean countries amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, and of the main elements that build economic and financial resilience. First, a detailed description of the project is given and the importance of economic and financial resilience is explained. The background and challenges in the region and the specific impact of the pandemic in Latin America and the Caribbean are then described, along with the pre-existing vulnerabilities exposed by the pandemic, particularly in the economic and social spheres. The document also presents a general overview of the regional situation in the different areas that make up resilience, providing relevant information for the countries in this regard. The conclusions and policy recommendations set forth the main challenges and priorities to be addressed by the region on the road to urban economic and financial resilience.
    Date: 2022–05–06
  37. By: Wang, Sophie Xuefei; Bansak, Cynthia
    Abstract: This study examines the impacts of caregiving by grandparents on children's academic performance in China, using data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS 2010 and 2014). Applying pooled OLS, instrumental variables and fixed-effects models with panel data estimation techniques, we find evidence that grandparents appear to have an adverse effect on the test scores of their school-age grandchildren. We further examine the mechanisms of this negative effect. Our results suggest that the education of grandparents plays an important role on the success of grandchildren and that increased schooling of grandparents can mitigate the negative effects of non-parental caregivers; thus, there are potential positive intergenerational impacts as grandparents become more educated themselves. When examining additional channels depressing test scores, we find evidence of grandparents' tendency to overindulge single-child grandchildren and grandsons. Lastly, it also appears that the common parenting practices of grandparents are detrimental to childhood development.
    Keywords: children,grandparents,instrument variable,academic performance,China
    JEL: I25 J13 O53
    Date: 2022
  38. By: In\'acio B\'o; Chiu Yu Ko
    Abstract: We consider the problem of designing prices for public transport where payment enforcing is done through random inspection of passengers' tickets as opposed to physically blocking their access. Passengers are fully strategic such that they may choose different routes or buy partial tickets in their optimizing decision. We derive expressions for the prices that make every passenger choose to buy the full ticket. Using travel and pricing data from the Washington DC metro, we show that a switch to a random inspection method for ticketing while keeping current prices could lead to more than 59% of revenue loss due to fare evasion, while adjusting prices to take incentives into consideration would reduce that loss to less than 20%, without any increase in prices.
    Date: 2022–05
  39. By: Fabio Alessandrini (University of Lausanne; Banque Cantonale Vaudoise); Eric Jondeau (University of Lausanne - Faculty of Business and Economics (HEC Lausanne); Swiss Finance Institute; Swiss Finance Institute); Ghislaine Lang (University of Lausanne); Evert Reins (University of Lausanne)
    Abstract: We evaluate the sustainability of real estate investment vehicles in Switzerland according to the three Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) pillars. For this purpose, we conducted a survey of direct investors (real estate investment companies, funds, and foundations) inquiring about their sustainability practices. Based on the data of this survey, we assess the ESG profile of their real estate investment portfolios. A methodology is proposed to build an ESG score and subscores on the three pillars of sustainability. We find that, in the aggregate, the performance of real estate investment vehicles is relatively good on energy issues, whereas it is less developed on environmental issues outside of energy. Social policies seem to be less of a priority for investment vehicles than environmental and governance policies. Large entities tend to perform better than small ones. Regarding the various categories of investment vehicles, foundations tend to have more advanced ESG practices than funds and companies. We do not find any significant impact of ESG scores on the financial performance of the portfolios. This research also highlights the need for the industry to establish reporting and technical standards on sustainability matters.
    Keywords: Sustainable investment, ESG ratings, Real estate
    JEL: C83 Q01 Q56 R3
    Date: 2022–05
  40. By: Florent Laroche (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: In this paper we explore the effect of COVID 19 on the long-distance transport services in France. These services have been strongly impacted by the different lockdowns imposed. The research question has for objective to characterize the market before COVID 19 to understand its adaptation and the strategies of the stakeholders faced with sanitary regulations. The empirical research is based on a large panel of data collected on four routes in France from 2019 to 2021 for four modes. The first finding is the severe crisis in terms of supply during the first lockdown in March 2020. During the rest of the year 2020 and 2021, services increased slowly until recovering a similar level to that of 2019 for rail and carpooling. This is not yet the case for coach and air services. The second finding is the market concentration to the advantage of the dominant mode, train, especially in comparison to air, still subject to difficulty because of the reduction of the business market. The last finding highlights the persistence of conventional services during the different lockdowns and the high variability of low cost services. Finally, low-cost services were recovering services faster in autumn 2021 than conventional services, thereby increasing their market share.
    Keywords: COVID-19,Public Transport,Interurban Mobility,Market organization,Working Paper du LAET
    Date: 2022
  41. By: Marc Hallin; H Lui; Thomas Verdebout
    Abstract: This paper proposes various nonparametric tools for directional data based on measure transportation. We use optimal transports todefine new notions of distribution and quantile functions on the hypersphere, with meaningful quantile contours and regions and closedformformulas under the classical assumption of rotational symmetry. The empirical versions of our distribution functions enjoy the expected Glivenko-Cantelli property of traditional distribution functions. They yield fully distribution-free concepts of ranks and signs and define data-driven systems of (curvilinear) parallels and (hyper) meridians. Based on this, we also propose a test of uniformity and establish its universal consistency; simulations indicate that this test outperforms the “projected” Cram´er-von Mises, Anderson-Darling, and Rothman procedures recently proposed in the literature. Two real-data examples involving the analysis of Venus craters and proteins structures conclude the paper.
    Keywords: directional statistics, quantile, ranks, optimal transport
    Date: 2022–06
  42. By: Johnathan G. Conzelmann; Steven W. Hemelt; Brad Hershbein; Shawn M. Martin; Andrew Simon; Kevin M. Stange
    Abstract: This paper introduces a new measure of the labor markets served by colleges and universities across the United States. About 50 percent of recent college graduates are living and working in the metro area nearest the institution they attended, with this figure climbing to 67 percent in-state. The geographic dispersion of alumni is more than twice as great for highly selective 4-year institutions as for 2-year institutions. However, more than one-quarter of 2-year institutions disperse alumni more diversely than the average public 4-year institution. In one application of these data, we find that the average strength of the labor market to which a college sends its graduates predicts college-specific intergenerational economic mobility. In a second application, we quantify the extent of “brain drain” across areas and illustrate the importance of considering migration patterns of college graduates when estimating the social return on public investment in higher education.
    JEL: H41 I23 J24 J61
    Date: 2022–05
  43. By: Thiago Christiano Silva; Sergio Rubens Stancato de Souza; Solange Maria Guerra
    Abstract: This paper investigates how COVID-19 and digitalization affected the market power in local Brazilian credit markets. We first propose a novel methodology to estimate bank market power at the local level. We design a data-intensive local version of the Lerner index by developing heuristics to allocate national-level banks' inputs, products, and costs across their branches using large-scale datasets from many sources. We then exploit the exogenous variation in COVID-19 intensity across Brazilian localities to analyze how the pandemic influenced local market power through the effective price and marginal cost channels. Despite reducing the economic activity, COVID-19 did not impact the effective price channel: bank branches offset the decrease in credit income by reducing credit concessions. However, bank branches more affected by COVID-19 experienced increased marginal costs as they could not rapidly adjust their cost factors in response to the decrease in credit concessions. Consequently, COVID-19 reduced banks' local market power via the marginal cost channel. More digitalized bank branches enjoy cost and lending flexibility: they experience less stickiness in their cost structure and complement the reduced credit concessions in localities more affected by COVID-19 by extending credit to borrowers in remote localities less affected. Consequently, more digitalized banks improve their market power compared to traditional banks. This paper provides new insights into how crises can affect local market power in non-trivial ways.
    Keywords: COVID-19, market power, digitalization, information technology, Lerner index
    JEL: C58 D22 D40 G21 I19 O31
    Date: 2022–05
  44. By: Stark, Oded; Jakubek, Marcin
    Abstract: In this paper we consider a population of would-be migrants in a developing country. To begin with, this population is divided into two sets: those who save by themselves to pay for the cost of their migration, and those who pool their savings with the savings of another would-be migrant to pay for the cost. Saving jointly brings forward the timing of migration: funds needed to pay for the migration of one of the co-savers can be accumulated more quickly, enabling him, using his higher income at destination than at origin, to speed up the migration of his co-saver. However, people may hesitate to save jointly for fear that a co-saver who is the first to migrate might fail to keep his part of the agreement. We show that an increase in the cost of migration stimulates the formation of co-financing, joint-saving arrangements that enable would-be migrants to cushion the impact of the increase. The evolution of joint-saving arrangements can create a time window during which the intensity of migration need not decrease: no fewer people (and conceivably even more of them) will migrate during a time interval that follows the increase in the cost. This prediction is at variance with the canonical economic model of migration according to which if migration is costlier, then there will be less of it.
    Keywords: Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Development, Labor and Human Capital, Public Economics, Risk and Uncertainty
    Date: 2022–06–14
  45. By: Thomas Epper (IÉSEG School Of Management [Puteaux], LEM - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Management - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur, KU - University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet); Ernst Fehr (KU - University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet); Kristoffer Balle Hvidberg (KU - University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet); Claus Thustrup Kreiner (KU - University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet); Soren Leth-Petersen (KU - University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet); Gregers Nytoft Rasmussen (KU - University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet)
    Abstract: Understanding who commits crime and why is a key topic in social science and important for the design of crime prevention policy. In theory, people who commit crime face different social and economic incentives for criminal activity than other people, or they evaluate the costs and benefits of crime differently because they have different preferences. Empirical evidence on the role of preferences is scarce. Theoretically, risk-tolerant, impatient, and self-interested people are more prone to commit crime than risk-averse, patient, and altruistic people. We test these predictions with a unique combination of data where we use incentivized experiments to elicit the preferences of young men and link these experimental data to their criminal records. In addition, our data allow us to control extensively for other characteristics such as cognitive skills, socioeconomic background, and self-control problems. We find that preferences are strongly associated with actual criminal behavior. Impatience and, in particular, risk tolerance are still strong predictors when we include the full battery of controls. Crime propensities are 8 to 10 percentage points higher for the most risk-tolerant individuals compared to the most risk averse. This effect is half the size of the effect of cognitive skills, which is known to be a very strong predictor of criminal behavior. Looking into different types of crime, we find that preferences significantly predict property offenses, while self-control problems significantly predict violent, drug, and sexual offenses.
    Keywords: crime,risk preference,time preference,self-control,altruism
    Date: 2022
  46. By: Rediet Abebe; Nicole Immorlica; Jon Kleinberg; Brendan Lucier; Ali Shirali
    Abstract: The tendency for individuals to form social ties with others who are similar to themselves, known as homophily, is one of the most robust sociological principles. Since this phenomenon can lead to patterns of interactions that segregate people along different demographic dimensions, it can also lead to inequalities in access to information, resources, and opportunities. As we consider potential interventions that might alleviate the effects of segregation, we face the challenge that homophily constitutes a pervasive and organic force that is difficult to push back against. Designing effective interventions can therefore benefit from identifying counterbalancing social processes that might be harnessed to work in opposition to segregation. In this work, we show that triadic closure -- another common phenomenon that posits that individuals with a mutual connection are more likely to be connected to one another -- can be one such process. In doing so, we challenge a long-held belief that triadic closure and homophily work in tandem. By analyzing several fundamental network models using popular integration measures, we demonstrate the desegregating potential of triadic closure. We further empirically investigate this effect on real-world dynamic networks, surfacing observations that mirror our theoretical findings. We leverage these insights to discuss simple interventions that can help reduce segregation in settings that exhibit an interplay between triadic closure and homophily. We conclude with a discussion on qualitative implications for the design of interventions in settings where individuals arrive in an online fashion, and the designer can influence the initial set of connections.
    Date: 2022–05
  47. By: Chowdhury, Farhat (University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Department of Economics); Link, Albert (University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Department of Economics); van Hasselt, Martijn (University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: A spatial distributional analysis of the population of Phase II research projects funded by the U.S. SBIR program in FY 2020 shows differences across states in projects focused on Artificial Intelligence (AI). AI is a relatively new research field, and this paper contributes to a better understanding of government support for such research. We find that AI projects are concentrated in states with complementary AI research resources available from universities nationally ranked in terms of their own AI research. To achieve a more diverse spatial distribution of AI-related technology development, the availability of complementary AI research resources must be expanded. We suggest that the National Science Foundation’s National AI Research Institutes represents an important step in this direction.
    Keywords: Artificial intelligence (AI); Public sector program management; Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR); Agglomeration; University research;
    JEL: H54 O31 O38 R11
    Date: 2022–06–07
  48. By: Niederprüm, Antonia; van Lienden, Willem
    Abstract: Postal outlets and parcel shops are increasingly complemented by parcel locker stations. This paper explores the potential reasons for varying trends in the use of parcel locker stations in Europe and discusses the role of parcel locker stations in e-commerce delivery. The paper aims to identify challenges and key drivers for the development of networks of parcel locker stations based on case studies for a selection of countries. It analyses typical business models and discusses the economic reasons for the dominance of exclusively operated networks. The country studies show that establishing a parcel locker network requires significant investments and a dedicated digital strategy by the respective operators. We expect that the increased use of parcel locker stations in Germany will require significant incentives to motivate users (senders and recipients) in choosing this delivery method above home delivery.
    Keywords: Parcel locker stations,e-commerce delivery,delivery option
    JEL: L20 L81 L87
    Date: 2021
  49. By: Sandra McNally; Luis Schmidt; Anna Valero
    Abstract: Further Education colleges are a key way in which 16-19 year olds acquire skills in the UK (much like US Community Colleges), especially those from low income backgrounds. Yet, little is known about what could improve performance in these institutions. We design and conduct the world's first management practices survey in these colleges (based on the World Management Survey) and match this to administrative longitudinal data on over 40,000 students. Value added regressions with rich controls suggest that structured management matters for educational outcomes (e.g. upper secondary qualifications), especially for students from low-income backgrounds. In a hypothetical scenario where a learner is moved from a college at the 10th percentile of management practices to the 90th, this would be associated with 8% higher probability of achieving a good high school qualification, which is nearly half of the educational gap between those from poor and non-poor backgrounds. Hence, improving management practices may be an important channel for reducing inequalities.
    Keywords: management practices, further education
    Date: 2022–03–08

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