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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Nicholas Bloom; Arjun Ramani |
| Abstract: | Using data from the US Postal Service and Zillow, we quantify the effect of Covid-19 on migration patterns and real estate markets within and across US cities. We find two key results. First, within large US cities, households, businesses, and real estate demand have moved from dense central business districts (CBDs) towards lower density suburban zip-codes. We label this the 'Donut Effect' reflecting the movement of activity out of city centers to the suburban ring. Second, while this observed reallocation occurs within cities, we do not see major reallocation across cities. That is, there is less evidence for large-scale movement of activity from large US cities to smaller regional cities or towns. We rationalize these findings by noting that working patterns post pandemic will frequently be hybrid, with workers commuting to their business premises typically three days per week. This level of commuting is less than pre-pandemic, making suburbs relatively more popular, but too frequent to allow employees to leave the cities containing their employer. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, US, ‘Donut Effect’, migration patterns, firm-specific shocks, earnings |
| Date: | 2021–09–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1793&r= |
| By: | Ismail, Mohammad (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology); Warsame, Abukar (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology); Wilhelmsson, Mats (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | The issue of schools and their capitalization in property values has been analyzed extensively. Our contribution is to analyze this effect in an alternative institutional context. This case study will analyze the housing market in Stockholm, Sweden. What distinguishes the Swedish school system is that we have a free choice of schools, which means that a family does not necessarily have to live in a school district to access the schools in that area. This means that families do not have to move to the district to which they intend to send their children but can apply to send them there regardless of whether they live there or not. Nevertheless, families might be interested in living close to good schools to be within walking distance of these schools. This is especially true at the primary school level. Therefore, we have analyzed schools' capitalization in property values in the context of free school choice. We use data on transaction prices for condominiums in Stockholm's inner city. The results indicate a capitalization of living close to good schools, but this capitalization is limited. We can show that schools' capitalization depends partly on the quality of the schools and partly on whether or not they are co-located with other externalities, such as green areas. The results also indicate that capitalization is affected by income differences within the city. |
| Keywords: | schools; housing values; capitalization |
| JEL: | I29 R21 R23 R30 |
| Date: | 2022–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:kthrec:2022_004&r= |
| By: | Fernando Borraz; Felipe Carozzi; Nicolás González-Pampillón; Leandro Zipitria |
| Abstract: | We study how local grocery prices within a city are affected by changes in housing markets. Our empirical strategy is based on an exogenous shift in the spatial distribution of construction activity induced by a large-scale, place-based tax exemption in the city of Montevideo. We provide instrumental variable estimates showing that the relative price of grocery goods decreases in areas within the city that experience more residential development: the estimated elasticity of grocery prices to newly-built residential space lies between -3 and -4%. Using a multi-product model of imperfect competition, we show that this negative effect can result from either an expansion in product varieties or firm entry. We report evidence supporting the varieties channel, with new residential development causing an increase in varieties of groceries available locally, and evidence of changes in the composition of stores. |
| Keywords: | retail prices, housing stock, neighborhood change |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1822&r= |
| By: | Pereira, Rafael H. M.; Andrade, Pedro R.; Bazzo Vieira, João Pedro |
| Abstract: | The creation of the General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) in the mid-2000s provided a new data format for cities to organize and share digital information on their public transport systems. GTFS feeds store geolocated data on public transport networks, including information on routes, stops, timetables, and service levels. The GTFS standard is now widely adopted by thousands of transport authorities and a wide variety of software applications for different purposes, including trip planning, timetable creation and accessibility analysis. Yet, there is still a lack of tools to parse GTFS data in a way that allows one to analyze the complex spatial and temporal patterns of public transport systems. This paper presents gtfs2gps, a new computational tool to easily process GTFS data that allows one to analyze the space-time trajectories of public transport vehicles at fine spatial and temporal resolutions. gtfs2gps is an open-source R package that employs parallel computing to convert GTFS feeds from relational text files into a data table format similar to GPS records with the timestamps of vehicles in every single trip. This paper explains the package functionalities and demonstrates how gtfs2gps can be used to articulate key concepts in time geography to explore and visualize the spatial and temporal patterns of public transport networks. The paper is accompanied by a computational notebook in R Markdown that allows one to easily reproduce the results in this paper or even replicate the analysis and data visualizations for other contexts where GTFS data is available. Given the widespread use of GTFS by transport agencies, gtfs2gps opens new possibilities for researchers to examine the time geography of public transport systems in urban areas across the globe. |
| Date: | 2022–04–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qydr6&r= |
| By: | Parag A. Pathak; Kevin Ren; Camille Terrier |
| Abstract: | Countries and cities around the world increasingly rely on centralized systems to assign students to schools. Two algorithms, deferred acceptance (DA) and immediate acceptance (IA), are widespread. The latter is often criticized for harming disadvantaged families who fail to get access to popular schools. This paper investigates the effect of the national ban of the IA mechanism in England in 2008. Before the ban, 49 English local authorities used DA and 16 used IA. All IA local authorities switched to DA afterwards, giving rise to a cross-market difference-in-differences research design. Our results show that the elimination of IA reduces measures of school quality for low-SES students more than high-SES students. After the ban, low-SES students attend schools with lower value-added and more disadvantaged and low-achieving peers. This effect is primarily driven by a decrease in low-SES admissions at selective schools. Our findings point to an unintended consequence of the IA to DA transition: by encouraging high-SES parents to report their preferences truthfully, DA increases competition for top schools, which crowds out low-SES students. |
| Keywords: | Schools, school admissions, immediate acceptance, deferred acceptance |
| Date: | 2021–11–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1815&r= |
| By: | Carro, Adrian (Banco de España); Hinterschweiger, Marc (Bank of England); Uluc, Arzu (Bank of England); Farmer, J. Doyne (Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET) at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | We develop an agent-based model of the UK housing market to study the impact of macroprudential policy experiments on key housing market indicators. The heterogeneous nature of this model enables us to assess the effects of such experiments on the housing, rental and mortgage markets not only in the aggregate, but also at the level of individual households and sub-segments, such as first-time buyers, homeowners, buy-to-let investors, and renters. This approach can therefore offer a broad picture of the disaggregated effects of financial stability policies. The model is calibrated using a large selection of micro-data, including data from a leading UK real estate online search engine as well as loan-level regulatory data. With a series of comparative statics exercises, we investigate the impact of (i) a hard loan-to-value limit, and (ii) a soft loan-to-income limit, allowing for a limited share of unconstrained new mortgages. We find that, first, these experiments tend to mitigate the house price cycle by reducing credit availability and therefore leverage. Second, an experiment targeting a specific risk measure may also affect other risk metrics, thus necessitating a careful calibration of the policy to achieve a given reduction in risk. Third, experiments targeting the owner-occupier housing market can spill over to the rental sector, as a compositional shift in home ownership from owner-occupiers to buy-to-let investors affects both the supply of and demand for rental properties. |
| Keywords: | Agent-based model; housing market; macroprudential policy; borrower-based measures; buy-to-let sector |
| JEL: | D10 D31 E58 R20 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2022–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0976&r= |
| By: | Liu, Sitian; Su, Yichen |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effect of working from home on the agglomeration economies of large cities and the aggregate productivity implications of such effect. Using advertised wages from job ads, we show that occupations with the highest work-from-home adoption during the COVID-19 pandemic saw a strong decrease in the urban wage premium. The decline in the urban wage premium is accompanied by an exodus of employment (based on firms' locations) from large cities to small cities. In contrast, occupations with low or moderate levels of work-from-home adoption saw little overall reduction in the urban wage premium. The empirical evidence in our paper points to weakened agglomeration economies in large cities among professions with the highest prevalence of working from home. A decomposition exercise reveals that a sizable portion of the decline in the urban wage premium is driven by the decline in the urban wage premium of relationship-building skills, suggesting the decreased agglomeration effect in large cities is at least partially a result of reduced occurrence of interactive activities. |
| Keywords: | Agglomeration; Productivity; Spillover; Urban Wage Premium; Working from Home; Remote; Virtual; WFH; Wages; Job Posting; COVID-19; Pandemic |
| JEL: | J24 J31 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2022–05–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:113108&r= |
| By: | John Mondragon; Johannes F. Wieland |
| Abstract: | What explains record U.S. house price growth since late 2019? We show that the shift to remote work explains over one half of the 23.8 percent national house price increase over this period. Using variation in remote work exposure across U.S. metropolitan areas we estimate that an additional percentage point of remote work causes a 0.93 percent increase in house prices after controlling for negative spillovers from migration. This cross-sectional estimate combined with the aggregate shift to remote work implies that remote work raised aggregate U.S. house prices by 15.1 percent. Using a model of remote work and location choice we argue that this estimate is a lower bound on the aggregate effect. Our results imply a fundamentals-based explanation for the recent increases in housing costs over speculation or financial factors, and that the evolution of remote work is likely to have large effects on the future path of house prices and inflation. |
| Keywords: | housing; house price growth; remote work; location choice; inflation; covid19 |
| Date: | 2022–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:94276&r= |
| By: | Clark, Andrew E. (Paris School of Economics); Diaz-Serrano, Luis (Universitat Rovira i Virgili) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides one of the first tests of adaptation to the complete set of residential transitions. We use long-run SOEP panel data and consider the impact of all housing transitions, whether or not they involve a change in housing tenure or geographical movement, on both life satisfaction and housing satisfaction. Controlling for individual characteristics, some residential transitions affect life satisfaction only little, while all transitions have a significant effect on housing satisfaction. This latter is particularly large for renters who become homeowners and move geographically, and for renters who move without changing tenure status. Regarding housing satisfaction, we only uncover evidence of some adaptation for renter-renter moves. Losing homeowner status is the only transition that produces lower housing satisfaction, and here the effect seems to become even more negative over time. |
| Keywords: | housing, adaptation, well-being, SOEP |
| JEL: | D19 R21 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15268&r= |
| By: | Geoff Boeing; Carl Higgs; Shiqin Liu; Billie Giles-Corti; James F Sallis; Ester Cerin; Melanie Lowe; Deepti Adlakha; Erica Hinckson; Anne Vernez Moudon; Deborah Salvo; Marc A Adams; Ligia Vizeu Barrozo; Tamara Bozovic; Xavier Delcl\`os-Ali\'o; Jan Dygr\'yn; Sara Ferguson; Klaus Gebel; Thanh Phuong Ho; Poh-Chin Lai; Joan Carles Martori; Kornsupha Nitvimol; Ana Queralt; Jennifer D Roberts; Garba H Sambo; Jasper Schipperijn; David Vale; Nico Van de Weghe; Guillem Vich; Jonathan Arundel |
| Abstract: | Benchmarking and monitoring urban design and transport features is critical to achieving local and international health and sustainability goals. However, most urban indicator frameworks use coarse spatial scales that only allow between-city comparisons or require expensive, technical, local spatial analyses for within-city comparisons. This study developed a reusable open-source urban indicator computational framework using open data to enable consistent local and global comparative analyses. We demonstrate this framework by calculating spatial indicators - for 25 diverse cities in 19 countries - of urban design and transport features that support health and sustainability. We link these indicators to cities' policy contexts and identify populations living above and below critical thresholds for physical activity through walking. Efforts to broaden participation in crowdsourcing data and to calculate globally consistent indicators are essential for planning evidence-informed urban interventions, monitoring policy impacts, and learning lessons from peer cities to achieve health, equity, and sustainability goals. |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2205.05240&r= |
| By: | Julio Cáceres-Delpiano; Eugenio P. Giolito |
| Abstract: | Using several data sources from Chile, we study the impact of the size of the school choice set at the time of starting primary school. With that purpose, we exploit multiple cutoffs defining the minimum age at entry, which not only define when a student can start elementary school, but also the set of schools from which she/he can choose. Moreover, differences across municipalities in the composition of the schools according to these cutoffs, allow us not only to account for munic- ipality fixed factors (educational markets) but also for differences in the characteristics between schools choosing different deadlines. That is, we compare the difference in outcomes for children living in the same municipality around the different cutoffs with those for children in other mu- nicipalities that experience a different change in the available set of schools across cutoffs (double difference in RD). We show that a larger set of schools increases the probability of starting in a better school, measured by a non-high-stakes examination. Moreover, this quasi-experimental variation reveals an important reduction in the likelihood of dropping out and a reduction in the probability that a child would switch schools during her/his school life. Secondly, for a subsam- ple of students who have completed high school, we observe that a larger school choice set at the start of primary school increases students’ chances of taking the national examination required for higher education and the likelihood of being enrolled in college. |
| Keywords: | LatinAmerica; Chile; School choice set; School achievements |
| JEL: | A21 I24 I25 I28 |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cem:doctra:830&r= |
| By: | Hafeez Ur Rehman Hadi (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics) |
| Abstract: | Cities are the people, their activities, and the mobility people exercise. These cities, in themselves, provide the engines of growth for countries. Cities need to allow freedom and facilitate mobility; and not restrict. Equitable service delivery and access to city services ensure a robust economic activity and city growth; and, contrary, clique access to these facilities hinders growth. Mobility in Pakistan is one such exercise that has been usurped by the car-owners in the garb of gentrification, road infrastructure development, and converting public spaces into parking spaces. |
| Keywords: | Pakistan, Car Policy |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:kbrief:2021:22&r= |
| By: | Paul Cheshire; Christian A. L. Hilber; Olivier Schöni |
| Abstract: | The pandemic lead to increased demand for bigger homes and gardens. With housing supply limited by strict UK planning regulations and the market propped up by a stamp duty waiver and the furlough scheme, prices of detached house have risen. Paul Cheshire, Christian Hilber and Olivier Schoni find that they rose most in areas close to the centre of London. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, housing, house prices, policy, Economic geography |
| Date: | 2021–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:606&r= |
| By: | Andre Groeger; Gianmarco León-Ciliotta; Steven Stillman |
| Abstract: | Venezuela is currently experiencing the biggest crisis in its recent history. This has led more than 5.6 million Venezuelans to emigrate, one million of those to Peru, which amounted to an increase of over 2 percent in the Peruvian population. Venezuelan immigrants in Peru are relatively similar in cultural terms, but, on average, more skilled than Peruvians. In this paper, we first examine Venezuelans'perceptions about being discriminated against in Peru. Using an instrumental variable strategy, we document a causal relationship between the level of employment in the informal sector - where most immigrants are employed - and reports of discrimination. We then study the impact of Venezuelan migration on local's labor market outcomes, reported crime rates and attitudes using a variety of data sources. We find that inflows of Venezuelans to particular locations led to increased employment and income among locals, decreased reported crime, and improved reported community quality. We conduct a heterogeneity analysis to identify the mechanisms behind these labor market effects and discuss the implications for Peruvian immigration policy. |
| Keywords: | immigration, forced migration, discrimination, labor markets, Peru, Venezuela |
| JEL: | F22 J15 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1840&r= |
| By: | PERPIÑA CASTILLO Carolina (European Commission - JRC); VANDECASTEELE Ine (European Commission - JRC); AURAMBOUT Jean Philippe (European Commission - JRC); VAN HEERDEN Sjoerdje (European Commission - JRC); RIBEIRO BARRANCO Ricardo (European Commission - JRC); BOSCO Claudio; JACOBS Christiaan (European Commission - JRC); MARTÍNEZ-RUIZ Irune; ESPARCIA Javier; PERTOLDI Martina (European Commission - JRC); KOMPIL Mert (European Commission - JRC); FIORETTI Carlotta (European Commission - JRC); GHIO Daniela; NATALE Fabrizio; LOESCHNER Jan; BATISTA E SILVA Filipe (European Commission - JRC); LAVALLE Carlo (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Urban areas are usually considered the main centres of economic activity with a high population concentration, good infrastructure, service provision offering employment, social services, innovation and recreational opportunities that attract people to live there . However, cities are also heavily dependent on peri-urban and rural areas, especially for food production and basic products, management of natural resources, protection of natural landscape, as well as recreation and tourism. Mutual inter-dependencies exist over the continuum between urban, peri-urban and rural areas, conceptually described as ‘linkages’ or ‘flows’. These can be associated to people, goods and public services or environmental flows. Under the lens of the degree of urbanisation, this policy brief analyses territorial discrepancies and flows between types of settlements across several dimensions such accessibility of essential services and internet connection, housing market, tourism capacity, as well as natural resources and population dynamics. Incorporating this territorial perspective, strategic development policies have gained momentum with a tendency of creating large and strong functional regions with a focus on the enhancement and the intensification of urban-rural interactions that can help to reduce inequalities, ensure the well-being of citizens and the development of balanced and sustainable territories. |
| Keywords: | urban, rural, peri-urban, population, migration, housing, tourism, LUISA, land flows, policy strategies, functional areas |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc129206&r= |
| By: | Huthaifa Alqaralleh; Gazi Salah Uddin; Canepa, Alessandra (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | In this study the time-frequency uncertainty and connectedness across housing markets, stock market are investigated through wavelet coherence analysis based on a continuous wavelet transform. Moreover, another interesting question about whether the risk in housing market would be spilled-over from one region to another is answered using a novel model whose strength lies in combining wavelet analysis with Time Varying Parameter Vector Auto-regression (W-TVP-VAR). Our analysis reveals evidence of long-run interdependence that intensified during the crisis period across short, medium, and long investment horizons. Moreover, the findings suggest a role for volatility spillover in the housing market from one region to another. The results of the latter connectedness in the network indicate that the housing market in one region is dominated by housing prices in another region. |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uto:dipeco:202204&r= |
| By: | Andrew F. Haughwout; Donghoon Lee; Daniel Mangrum; Joelle Scally; Wilbert Van der Klaauw |
| Abstract: | Total household debt balances continued their upward climb in the first quarter of 2022 with an increase of $266 billion; this rise was primarily driven by a $250 billion increase in mortgage balances, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Creditfrom the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data. Mortgages, historically the largest form of household debt, now comprise 71 percent of outstanding household debt balances, up from 69 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019. Driving the increase in mortgage balances has been a high volume of new mortgage originations, which we define as mortgages that newly appear on credit reports and includes both purchase and refinance mortgages. There has been $8.4 trillion in new mortgage debt originated in the last two years, as a steady upward climb in purchase mortgages was accompanied by an historically large boom in mortgage refinances. Here, we take a close look at these refinances, and how they compare to recent purchase mortgages, using our Consumer Credit Panel, which is based on anonymized credit reports from Equifax. |
| Keywords: | mortgages; housing; Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) |
| JEL: | D14 |
| Date: | 2022–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:94168&r= |
| By: | Dan Goldhaber; Thomas J. Kane; Andrew McEachin; Emily Morton; Tyler Patterson; Douglas O. Staiger |
| Abstract: | Using testing data from 2.1 million students in 10,000 schools in 49 states (plus D.C.), we investigate the role of remote and hybrid instruction in widening gaps in achievement by race and school poverty. We find that remote instruction was a primary driver of widening achievement gaps. Math gaps did not widen in areas that remained in-person (although there was some widening in reading gaps in those areas). We estimate that high-poverty districts that went remote in 2020-21 will need to spend nearly all of their federal aid on academic recovery to help students recover from pandemic-related achievement losses. |
| JEL: | I22 I24 I25 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30010&r= |
| By: | Juan Herreno; Mathieu Pedemonte |
| Abstract: | We study the differential regional effects of monetary policy exploiting geographical heterogeneity in income across cities in the United States. We find that prices and employment in poorer cities react more to monetary policy shocks. The results for prices hold for a wide range of narrow consumer expenditure categories. The results are consistent with New Keynesian models that allow for a differential share of hand-to-mouth consumers across regions, but not with models in which regions have different slopes of the Phillips curve. We show that an increase in heterogeneity across cities amplifies the effect of monetary policy on prices and employment. |
| Keywords: | Heterogeneous Effects of Monetary Policy; Monetary Union; TANK |
| JEL: | E31 E24 E52 E58 F45 |
| Date: | 2022–05–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:94203&r= |
| By: | Bratanova, Alexandra; Pham, Hien; Mason, Claire; Hajkowicz, Stefan; Naughtin, Claire; Schleiger, Emma; Sanderson, Conrad; Chen, Caron; Karimi, Sarvnaz |
| Abstract: | We demonstrate how cluster analysis underpinned by analysis of revealed technology advantage can be used to differentiate geographic regions with comparative advantage in artificial intelligence (AI). Our analysis uses novel datasets on Australian AI businesses, intellectual property patents and labour markets to explore location, concentration and intensity of AI activities across 333 geographical regions. We find that Australia's AI business and innovation activity is clustered in geographic locations with higher investment in research and development. Through cluster analysis we identify three tiers of AI capability regions that are developing across the economy: ‘AI hotspots’ (10 regions), ‘Emerging AI regions’ (85 regions) and ‘Nascent AI regions’ (238 regions). While the AI hotspots are mainly concentrated in central business district locations, there are examples when they also appear outside CBD in areas where there has been significant investment in innovation and technology hubs. Policy makers can use the results of this study to facilitate and monitor the growth of AI capability to boost economic recovery. Investors may find these results helpful to learn about the current landscape of AI business and innovation activities in Australia. |
| Keywords: | Artificial intelligence, cluster, revealed technology advantage, regional innovation, Australia |
| JEL: | O31 O33 O38 R12 |
| Date: | 2022–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:113237&r= |
| By: | Jiang, Yi (Asian Development Bank); Laranjo, Jade (Asian Development Bank); Thomas, Milan (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Throughout 2020, national and subnational governments worldwide implemented nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to contain the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19). These included community quarantines, also known as lockdowns, of varying length, scope, and stringency that restricted mobility. To assess the effect of community quarantines on urban mobility in the Philippines, we analyze a new source of data: cellphone-based origin–destination flows made available by a major telecommunication company. First, we demonstrate the impulse responses of mobility to lockdowns of varying stringency levels over six months starting in March 2020. Then we assess the heterogeneous effects of lockdowns by city characteristics, focusing on employment composition. This analysis reveals that the effect of lockdowns was strongest in cities where a high share of workforce was employed in work-from-home-friendly sectors or medium to large enterprises. We compare our f indings with cross-country evidence on lockdowns and mobility, discuss the economic implications for containment policies in the Philippines, and suggest additional research that can be based on this novel dataset. |
| Keywords: | mobility; employment; lockdowns; nonpharmaceutical interventions; remote work |
| JEL: | I18 J61 K32 O18 |
| Date: | 2022–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0659&r= |
| By: | John R. Logan; Brian J. Stults |
| Abstract: | The 2020 Census offers new information on changes in residential segregation in metropolitan regions across the country as they continue to become more diverse. We take a long view, assessing trends since 1980 and extrapolating to the future. These new data mostly reinforce patterns that were observed a decade ago: high but slowly declining black-white segregation, and less intense but hardly changing segregation of Hispanics and Asians from whites. Enough time has passed since the civil rights era of the 1960s and 1970s to draw this conclusion: segregation will continue to divide Americans well into the 21st Century. |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:22-14&r= |
| By: | Michael W. L. Elsby; Jennifer C. Smith; Jonathan Wadsworth |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of population flows on labour market dynamics across immigrant and native-born populations in the United Kingdom. Population flows are large, and cyclical, driven first by the maturation of baby boom cohorts in the 1980s, and latterly by immigration in the 2000s. New measures of labour market flows by migrant status uncover both the flow origins of disparities in the levels and cyclicalities of immigrant and native labour market outcomes, as well as their more recent convergence. A novel dynamic accounting framework reveals that population flows have played a nontrivial role in the volatility of labour markets among both the UK-born and, especially, immigrants. |
| Keywords: | immigration, worker flows, labour market dynamics |
| Date: | 2021–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1814&r= |
| By: | Antonin Bergeaud; Jean Benoit Eymeoud; Thomas Garcia; Dorian Henricot |
| Abstract: | We examine how corporate real estate market participants adjust to the take-off of teleworking. We develop an indicator of the exposure of counties to teleworking in France by combining teleworking capacity with incentives and frictions to its deployment. We study how this indicator relates to prices and quantities in the corporate real estate market. We find that for offices in counties more exposed, the Covid-19 crisis has led to (1) higher vacancy rates, (2) less construction, (3) lower prices. Our findings reveal that teleworking has already an impact on the office market. Furthermore, forward-looking indicators suggest that market participants are anticipating the shift to teleworking to be durable. |
| Keywords: | corporate real estate, commercial real estate, teleworking |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1831&r= |
| By: | Niklas Gohl; Peter Haan; Claus Michelsen; Felix Weinhardt |
| Abstract: | This study examines short-, medium-, and long-run price expectations in housing markets. We derive and test six hypothesis about the incidence, formation, and relevance of price expectations. To do so, we use data from a tailored household survey, past sale offerings, satellites, and from an information RCT. As novel findings, we show that price expectations exhibit mean reversion in the long-run. Moreover, we do not find evidence for biases related to individual housing tenure decisions or regret aversion. Confirming existing findings, we show that local market characteristics matter for expectations throughout, as well as aggregate price information. Lastly, we corroborate existing evidence that expectations are relevant for portfolio choice. |
| Keywords: | housing, house price expectations |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1829&r= |
| By: | Marcelo Arbex (Department of Economics, University of Windsor); Jessica Faciroli (Department of Economics, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Brazil); Ricardo da Silva Freguglia (Department of Economics, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Brazil); Marcel de Toledo Vieira (Department of Statistics, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Brazil) |
| Abstract: | Are families that live in the same neighborhood and share similar characteristics more likely to participate in welfare programs? Using a unique administrative data set, we study beneficiaries of the Bolsa Familia - the Brazilian cash transfer program - from 2013 to 2015. We analyze data containing information on the living conditions of the most vulnerable families, such as income, household characteristics, schooling, and disability. An eight-digit zip code defines a neighborhood. Families form a network if they live in the same neighborhood and belong to the same racial group. We provide evidence that place of residence and racial group networks are important determinants of the family participation in the program. Individuals in a neighborhood-racial group network are 6.5% more likely to participate in the Bolsa Familia. We conduct several robustness checks - controlling for family unobserved characteristics, network density and coverage (percentiles) distributions - to further qualify our results. |
| Keywords: | Social Program Participation, Social Network, Neighborhood, Race Composition, Bolsa Familia Program, Brazil. |
| JEL: | I38 H53 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wis:wpaper:2201&r= |
| By: | Arntz, Melanie (ZEW Mannheim); Ivanov, Boris (ZEW); Pohlan, Laura (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | Routine-intensive occupations have been declining in many countries, but how does this affect individual workers’ careers if this decline is particularly severe in their local labor market? This paper uses administrative data from Germany and a matched difference-in-differences approach to show that the individual costs of job loss strongly depend on the task-bias of regional structural change. Workers displaced from routine manual occupations have substantially higher and more persistent employment and wage losses in regions where such occupations decline the most. Regional and occupational mobility partly serve as an adjustment mechanism, but come at high cost as these switches also involve losses in firm wage premia. Non-displaced workers, by contrast, remain largely unaffected by structural change. |
| Keywords: | routine-biased structural change, local labor markets, displacement, mass-layoffs, plant closures, matching, difference-in-differences, event study |
| JEL: | J24 J63 J64 J65 O33 R11 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15313&r= |
| By: | Simon Briole; Marc Gurgand; Eric Maurin; Sandra McNally; Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela; Daniel Santin |
| Abstract: | With the rise of polarization and extremism, the question of how best to transmit civic virtues across generations is more acute than ever. In this paper, we test the hypothesis that schools can be the place for this transmission by empowering students and gathering them around concrete and democratically chosen objectives. We draw on an RCT implemented in a large sample of middle schools in three European countries. The evaluated program leads students to carry out collective citizenship projects in their immediate communities under the supervision of teachers trained in student-centered teaching methods. The program significantly increases student altruism, their political self-efficacy as well as the quality of their relationship with their classmates and their respect for the rules of school life (less sanctions and absenteeism). In all three countries, the benefits are greater for students with the highest level of altruism and interest in politics at baseline. Investments made at an early age appear to be complement to those made during adolescence for the production of civic virtues. |
| Keywords: | citizenship, education, teaching practices, project-based learning, RCT, youth |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1830&r= |
| By: | Alessa Möllers (Institute of Transport Economics, Muenster); Sebastian Specht (Institute of Transport Economics, Muenster); Jan Wessel (Institute of Transport Economics, Muenster) |
| Abstract: | With data from automated counting stations and controlling for weather and calendar effects, we estimate the isolated impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent government intervention (contact restrictions and business closures) on walking and cycling in 10 German cities. Pedestrian traffic in pedestrian zones decreases with higher local incidence values, and with stricter government intervention. There are ambiguous effects for cycling, which decreases in cities with a higher modal share of cycling, and increases in others. Moreover, we find impact heterogeneity with respect to different weekdays and hours of the day, both for cycling and walking. Additionally, we use data on overall mobility changes, which were derived from mobile phone data, in order to estimate the modal share changes of cycling. In almost all cities, the modal share of cycling increases during the pandemic, with higher increases in non-bicycle cities and during stronger lockdown interventions. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19 pandemic, before and during Covid-19 pandemic, active mobility, pedestrian, cycling, modal share |
| JEL: | R40 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mut:wpaper:34&r= |
| By: | Matti Viren (University of Turku, Finland.) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we examine how Finnish municipalitiesâ expenditures depend on the share of citizens with foreign background out of the total population. Empirical analyses make use of Finnish panel data from 295 municipalities and 202 migrant nationalities for the period 1987-2018. It turns out that the share of foreign population tends to increase per capita expenditures up to the point where the respective semi-elasticity is about one. The result seems robust in terms of different control variables, subsamples of the data and estimation techniques. Sizeable differences between different nationalities could, however, be detected. Thus, we cannot assume that the use of public services is neutral in terms of demographic changes and that should be considered when making assessments on overall fiscal effects of migration. |
| Keywords: | government expenditures, migration, local government |
| JEL: | H24 H31 H42 H71 J15 J61 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp151&r= |
| By: | Fizza Khalid Butt (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics); Fahd Zulfiqar (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics) |
| Abstract: | The process of development leads to large scale rural-urban migration as the poor seek opportunities in cities. We have seen Pakistan has now become the most urbanised society in South Asia.[1] Yet, Pakistani city planning remained clueless about this important fact about development. |
| Keywords: | Developing, Policy, Khokhas |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:kbrief:2021:23&r= |
| By: | Priyaranjan Jha; David Neumark; Antonio Rodriguez-Lopez |
| Abstract: | Dube, Lester, and Reich (2010) argue that state-level minimum wage variation can be correlated with economic shocks, generating spurious evidence that higher minimum wages reduce employment. Using minimum wage variation within contiguous county pairs that share a state border, they find no relationship between minimum wages and employment in the U.S. restaurant industry. We show that this finding hinges critically on using cross-border counties to define local economic areas with which to control for economic shocks that are potentially correlated with minimum wage changes. We use, instead, multi-state commuting zones, which provide superior definitions of local economic areas. Using the same within-local area research design−but within cross-border commuting zones−we find a robust negative relationship between minimum wages and employment. |
| Keywords: | minimum wage, employment, commuting zones |
| JEL: | J23 J38 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9746&r= |
| By: | Smith, Lindsey Gail; Yifei, Maggie Ma; Widener, Michael; Farber, Steven |
| Abstract: | Socioeconomic and place-based factors contribute to grocery shopping patterns which may be important for diet and health. Big data provide the opportunity to explore behaviours at the population level. We used data collected from Flipp, a free all-in-one savings and deals content app, to identify visitation to grocery stores and estimate home-to-store distances, monthly frequencies, and number of unique stores visited in eight Canadian cities during 2020. Grocery shopping outcomes and associations with income, population density, and percentage of car commuters were explored using data aggregated at the Aggregate Dissemination Area (ADA) level in which app users lived. Changes in patterns of grocery shopping following restrictions implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic were also investigated. The median of average home-to-store distances ranged from 4-5 km across all cities throughout 2020. Shorter distances for grocery shopping were shown consistently for shoppers living in lower income, densely populated, and low-car commuting ADAs. A maximum of three unique supermarkets were visited on average each month. Decreases in the frequency and variability of grocery store visits were shown across all cities in April 2020 following the implementation of restrictions in response to COVID-19, and pre-pandemic levels of shopping were rarely achieved by the end of the year. Ultimately, these results provide much needed information regarding the characteristics of grocery shopping trips in a high-income country, as well as how food shopping was impacted by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This information will be useful for a range of future studies seeking to characterise access to food retail. |
| Date: | 2022–04–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:kjsdz&r= |
| By: | Luke Milsom; Isabelle Roland |
| Abstract: | Exposure to Chinese import competition led to significant manufacturing job losses in the United States. Local labor markets, however, differ significantly in how they fared with respect to manufacturing employment. An important question is whether labor market institutions have an impact on the dynamic response of manufacturing employment to rising import penetration. We contribute to this debate by showing that minimum wages amplified the negative effect of Chinese import penetration on manufacturing employment in US local labor markets between 2000 and 2007. We develop a rigorous double-edged identification strategy. First, we construct shift-share instrumental variables to address the endogeneity of import penetration. Second, we use a border identification strategy to distinguish the effects of minimum wage policies from the effects of other local labor market characteristics that are unrelated to policy. Specifically, we rely on comparing commuting zones that are contiguous to each other but located in different states with different minimum wage policies. The approach essentially considers what happens to the response of manufacturing employment to import penetration when one crosses a policy border. |
| Keywords: | import penetration, labor market institutions, minimum wages, manufacturing employment |
| Date: | 2021–10–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1807&r= |
| By: | Luis Bosshart; Jeremiah Dittmar |
| Abstract: | We document how the Black Death activated politics and led to economic divergence within Europe. Before the pandemic, economic development was similar in Eastern and Western German cities despite greater political fragmentation in the West. The pandemic precipitated a divergence that coincided with prior differences in politics. After the pandemic, construction and manufacturing fell by 1/3 in the East relative to underlying trends and the Western path. Politics institutionalizing local self-government advanced in the West, but not in the East. This divergence is observed across otherwise similar cities along historic borders and foreshadows a subsequent divergence in agriculture. |
| Keywords: | institutions, political economy, structural change, cities, growth |
| Date: | 2021–10–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1805&r= |
| By: | Boeing, Geoff (Northeastern University); Riggs, William (University of San Francisco) |
| Abstract: | Planning scholars have identified economic, safety, and social benefits of converting one-way streets to two-way. Less is known about how conversions could impact vehicular distances traveled—of growing relevance in an era of fleet automation, electrification, and ride-hailing. We simulate such a conversion in San Francisco, California. We find that its current street network’s average intra-city trip is about 1.7% longer than it would be with all two-way streets, corresponding to 27 million kilometers of annual surplus travel. As transportation technologies evolve, planners must consider different facets of network efficiency to align local policy and street design with sustainability and other societal goals. |
| Date: | 2022–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:fyhbc&r= |
| By: | Marco Francesconi; Jonathan James |
| Abstract: | In May 2018, Scotland introduced a minimum unit price on alcohol. We examine the impact of this policy on traffic fatalities and drunk driving accidents. Using administrative data on the universe of vehicle collisions in Britain and a range of quasi-experimental modeling approaches, we do not find that the policy had an effect on road crash deaths and drunk driving collisions. The results are robust to several sensitivity exercises. There is no evidence of effect heterogeneity by income and other predictors of alcohol consumption or cross-border effects. A brief discussion of the policy implications of our findings is provided. |
| Keywords: | externality, alcohol, minimum unit pricing, motor vehicle collisions, driving under the influence |
| JEL: | D12 D62 H23 K42 R41 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9745&r= |
| By: | Francesca Crucitti (European Commission - JRC); Nicholas-Joseph Lazarou (European Commission - JRC); Philippe Monfort (European Commission - DG REGIO); Simone Salotti (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | We present an analysis on cohesion policy investments in the regions of Romania using the spatial dynamic general equilibrium model RHOMOLO in order to provide useful insights on the 2021-2027 programmes and their implications for growth and development. The analysis is based on a hypothetical distribution of the funding across the following fields of intervention: aid to the private sector, research and development, transport infrastructure, other infrastructure, and human capital. These interventions are modelled using a mix of demand and supply side shocks. We find that a projected €31.3 billion of cohesion policy funding would increase Romanian GDP by 3.8% at the end of the 10-years implementation period with respect to the no policy scenario. Our results suggest that there seems to be an equity-efficiency trade-off in Romania: in most cases, the returns of the policy in terms of GDP are maximised by investing in the capital city region, at the expense of worsening regional disparities. For some fields of intervention, though, the spillovers generated in the less developed regions are so large that the national GDP impact is similar when investing there rather than in the capital city region. |
| Keywords: | RHOMOLO, Cohesion Policy, regional growth, regional development, Romania |
| JEL: | C68 R13 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:termod:202206&r= |
| By: | Laura Outhwaite (UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, University College London); Jo van Herwegen (UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, University College London) |
| Abstract: | Estimates suggest that children's maths attainment has been significantly impacted by the disruptions caused by Covid-19, much more so than reading (DfE, 2022). This reflects trends seen in data prior to the pandemic, where a maths- reading attainment gap emerges in the first years of school, with reading skills significantly exceeding those of mathematics (Outhwaite et al., 2022). As part of the recently released Schools White Paper "Opportunity for All", the UK government are aiming for "90% of primary school children to achieve the expected standard in reading, writing, and maths for Key Stage 2 by 2030" (DfE, 2022). To achieve this goal, the UK government have proposed increased continued professional development for teachers and increased parental involvement. In response, this briefing note summarises the empirical evidence specific to these proposals and some of the challenges relating to raising standards in maths attainment at primary school. This includes understanding and supporting, 1) dyscalculia and mathematical learning difficulties, and 2) the home mathe- matics environment. |
| Keywords: | mathematics; pupil attainment; intervention; dyscalculia |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucl:cepeob:15&r= |
| By: | Angenendt, Steffen; Biehler, Nadine; Kipp, David |
| Abstract: | The international debate on migration policy increasingly views cities as game changers since cities have to find rapid, efficient, and lasting solutions to problems relating to forced displacement and migration. However, this assessment also has its critics. From a European perspective, cooperating with African cities is important because migration from Africa is expected to rise in the short and medium term. From an African perspective, there is a wish to extend the potential for legal migration and for intercontinental mobility. Existing cooperation between African and European cities shows that the actors involved pursue very different objectives. Their potential for participation is limited but simultaneously highly dependent on political will and context. In order to make use of cities' potential for cooperation, particularly in shaping legal migration, cooperation instruments must be designed in such a way as to give cities adequate funding and sufficient powers. Divisions between urban and rural areas should not be deepened, and social conflicts should not be exacerbated. Public funds should be used preferentially to support existing networks, especially those of small and medium-sized cities; such cities should be involved above all in the shaping of labour mobility and migration and in the reception of refugees. Philanthropic funding of cities and city networks can also be helpful in harnessing the potential of municipal actors. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swprps:82021&r= |
| By: | Jo Blanden; Matthias Doepke; Jan Stuhler |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new evidence on educational inequality and reviews the literature on the causes and consequences of unequal education. We document large achievement gaps between children from different socio-economic backgrounds, show how patterns of educational inequality vary across countries, time, and generations, and establish a link between educational inequality and social mobility. We interpret this evidence from the perspective of economic models of skill acquisition and investment in human capital. The models account for different channels underlying unequal education and highlight how endogenous responses in parents' and children's educational investments generate a close link between economic inequality and educational inequality. Given concerns over the extended school closures during the Covid-19 pandemic, we also summarize early evidence on the impact of the pandemic on children's education and on possible long-run repercussions for educational inequality. |
| Keywords: | educational inequality, education finance, children |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1849&r= |
| By: | Andrea Cerrato (University of California [Berkeley] - University of California); Francesco Filippucci (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Fiscal consolidation is often a necessity for local governments, but the cost of austerity for local economic activity is an open empirical question. Quasi-experimental estimates of local fiscal multipliers range between 1.5 and 1.8, but most of them are obtained from expansionary shocks. We study the extension of tighter budget rules in 2013 to Italian municipalities below 5,000 inhabitants, which generates a persistent increase of about 100 Euros per capita (0.5% of local income) in municipal net budget surplus, mostly driven by a cut in capital expenditures. We find no decrease in local income over a eight-year horizon. The estimated multiplier is always not significantly different from zero, and we can exclude it is above 1.5 with 95% confidence within 4 years from the shock. We find no evidence of spillovers to neighboring municipalities. These results suggest that the cost of fiscal consolidation can be lower than what currently prevailing estimates of local multipliers imply. |
| Keywords: | Local economy multiplier,Budget deficit,Fiscal policy,Fiscal consolidation |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-03665241&r= |
| By: | Barbero, Javier; Christensen, Martin; Conte, Andrea; Lecca, Patrizio; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Salotti, Simone |
| Abstract: | We quantify the general equilibrium effects on economic growth of improving the quality of institutions at the regional level in the context of the implementation of the European Cohesion Policy for the European Union and the UK. The direct impact of changes in the quality of government is integrated in a general equilibrium model to analyse the system-wide economic effects resulting from additional endogenous mechanisms and feedback effects. The results reveal a significant direct effect as well as considerable system-wide benefits from improved government quality on economic growth. A small 5 per cent increase in government quality across European Union regions increases the impact of Cohesion investment by up to 7 per cent in the short run and 3 per cent in the long run. The exact magnitude of the gains depends on various local factors, including the initial endowments of public capital, the level of government quality, and the degree of persistence over time. |
| Keywords: | cohesion; economic growth; EU; government quality; public investment; regions |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2022–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:115033&r= |
| By: | Yuxian Chen; Yannis M. Ioannides; Ferdinand Rauch |
| Abstract: | Asymmetric transport costs arise when shipping times from point i to point j differ from shipping from point j to i. We show that such asymmetric transport costs predict distinct patterns of location in a class of models using Dixit-Stiglitz preferences. We then study factors affecting the location of cities in ancient Hellas. Prevailing winds create an environment of asymmetric trade costs in ancient Greece. We show that predictions of these models are consistent with the location of ancient cities. |
| Date: | 2022–04–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:969&r= |
| By: | Florent Dubois (UOR - University of Reading, EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Christophe Muller (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | We contend that residential segregation should be an essential component of the analyses of socio-ethnic income gaps. Focusing on the contemporary White/African gap in South Africa, we complete Mincer wage equations with an Isolation index that reflects the level of segregation in the local area where individuals dwell. We decompose the income gap distribution into detailed composition and structure components. Segregation is found to be the main contributor of the structure effect, ahead of education and experience, and to make a sizable contribution to the composition effect. Moreover, segregation is found to be harmful at the bottom of the African income distribution, notably in relation to local informal job-search networks, while it is beneficial at the top of the White income distribution. Specific subpopulations are identified that suffer and benefit most from segregation, including for the former, little educated workers in agriculture and mining, often female, confined in their personal networks. Finally, minimum wage policies are found likely to attenuate most segregation's noxious mechanisms, while a variety of policy lessons are drawn from the decomposition analysis by distinguishing not only compositional from structural effects, but also distinct group-specific social positions. |
| Keywords: | Residential segregation,Post-Apartheid South Africa,Distribution analysis,Generalized decompositions |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03622711&r= |
| By: | Carla Morvan (GATE UMR 5824, 93 Chemin des mouilles, F-69130 Ecully (France)) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this study is to analyze the causal impact of natural disasters on municipal budget choices, using a original database that allows us to study a sample of several thousand municipalities, 22,972 of which were affected by a natural disaster between 2000 and 2019. This quasi-experimental setting allows us to use panel regression models to estimate municipalities' responses to a shock and with respect to their prevention strategies. We find evidence of increased spending for about 10 years after the disaster, together with increased in revenues and debt. Furthermore, it appears that prevention allows municipalities to effectively mitigate the effect of the disaster in terms of public spending, as municipalities with a natural hazard prevention plan in place did not increase their spending and their debt in the long run. |
| Keywords: | Local public finance, Local expenditure, Natural disasters, Risks prevention |
| JEL: | H72 Q54 R50 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:2206&r= |
| By: | Yuan, Tianchen; Ioannou, Petros |
| Abstract: | Highway bottlenecks caused by traffic incidents, lane drop, ramp merging or slow vehicles negatively impact traffic mobility and safety. Traffic regulation techniques, such as adjusting speed limits, providing lane-change recommendations, and restricting on-ramp vehicle inputs with traffic signals in response to an incident, have been found to mitigate congestion from these types of bottlenecks. However, most existing research assumes that traffic models and measured traffic data are accurate and that vehicle drivers always comply with recommendations from the infrastructure. These assumptions are rarely true in the real world and can lead to inconsistencies between the theoretical benefits and the actual benefits obtained in field tests. Researchers at the University of Southern California developed, analyzed, and evaluated an innovative approach to alleviate highway bottleneck congestion. The approach includes issuing variable-speed advisories and lane-change recommendations when needed to the upstream vehicles, as well as ramp control to manage incoming traffic, while accounting for inaccuracies in traffic data and road information and the complex behavior of human driving. This policy brief summarizes the key findings from that research. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Connected vehicles, Ramp metering, Speed control, Traffic simulation, Uncertainty, Variable speed limits |
| Date: | 2022–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt2sz308jc&r= |
| By: | Cochran, Abigail L. (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill); Wang, Jueyu; Wolfe, Mary; Iacobucci, Evan; Vinella-Brusher, Emma; McDonald, Noreen |
| Abstract: | Introduction: Understanding spatial and temporal trends in travel for COVID-19 vaccinations by key demographic characteristics (i.e., gender, race, age) is important for ensuring equitable access to and increasing distribution efficiency of vaccines and other health services. The aim of this study is to examine trends in travel distance for COVID-19 vaccinations over the course of the vaccination rollout in North Carolina. Methods: Data were collected using electronic medical records of individuals who had first- or single-dose COVID-19 vaccination appointments through UNC Health between December 15, 2020, and August 31, 2021 (N = 204,718). Travel distances to appointments were calculated using the Euclidean distance from individuals’ home ZIP code centroids to clinic addresses. Descriptive statistics and multivariate regression models with individuals’ home ZIP codes incorporated as fixed effects were used to examine differences in travel distances by gender, race, and age. Results: Males and White individuals traveled significantly farther for vaccination appointments throughout the vaccination rollout. On average, females traveled 3.5% shorter distances than males; Black individuals traveled 10.0% shorter distances than White individuals; and people aged 65 and older traveled 2.6% longer distances than younger people living in the same ZIP code. Conclusions: Controlling for neighborhood socioeconomic status and spatial proximity to vaccination clinics, males and White individuals traveled longer distances for vaccination appointments, demonstrating more ability to travel for vaccinations. Results indicate a need to consider differential ability to travel to vaccinations by key demographic characteristics in COVID-19 vaccination programs and future mass health service delivery efforts. |
| Date: | 2022–04–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:bq74k&r= |
| By: | Nicholas Bloom; Tarek Alexander Hassan; Aakash Kalyani; Josh Lerner; Ahmed Tahoun |
| Abstract: | We identify novel technologies using textual analysis of patents, job postings, and earnings calls. Our approach enables us to identify and document the diffusion of 29 disruptive technologies across firms and labor markets in the U.S. Five stylized facts emerge from our data. First, the locations where technologies are developed that later disrupt businesses are geographically highly concentrated, even more so than overall patenting. Second, as the technologies mature and the number of new jobs related to them grows, they gradually spread across space. While initial hiring is concentrated in high-skilled jobs, over time the mean skill level in new positions associated with the technologies declines, broadening the types of jobs that adopt a given technology. At the same time, the geographic diffusion of low-skilled positions is significantly faster than higher-skilled ones, so that the locations where initial discoveries were made retain their leading positions among high-paying positions for decades. Finally, these technology hubs are more likely to arise in areas with universities and high skilled labor pools. |
| Keywords: | disruptive technologies, technological change, firms, labor markets , |
| Date: | 2021–09–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1798&r= |
| By: | Andreas Diemer; Simona Iammarino; Andres Rodriguez-Pose; Michael Storper |
| Abstract: | The concept of regional development trap refers to regions that face significant structural challenges in retrieving past dynamism or improving prosperity for their residents. This article introduces and measures the concept of the regional development trap for regions in Europe. The concept draws inspiration from the middle-income trap in international development theory but widens it to shed light on traps in higher-income countries and at the regional scale. We propose indicators—involving the economic, productivity, and employment performance of regions relative to themselves in the immediate past, and to other regions in their respective countries and elsewhere in Europe—to identify regions either in a development trap or at significant near-term risk of falling into it. Regions facing development traps generate economic, social, and political risks at the national scale but also for Europe as a whole. |
| Keywords: | development trap, middle-income, economic growth, employment, productivity, regions, Europe |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2209&r= |
| By: | Padilla-Romo, María (University of Tennessee); Peluffo, Cecilia (University of Florida); Viollaz, Mariana (CEDLAS-UNLP) |
| Abstract: | Policies that extend the school day in elementary school provide an implicit childcare subsidy for families. As such, they can affect parents' time allocation and family dynamics. This paper examines how extending the school day affects families by focusing on marriage dissolution. We exploit the staggered adoption of a policy that extended the availability of full-time elementary schools across different municipalities in Mexico. Using administrative data on divorces, we find that the extension in the school day by 3.5 hours leads to a significant increase in divorce rates. Moreover, the effect grows with every year of municipalities' exposure to full-time schooling. Increased female employment due to the availability of childcare is likely to be one of the mechanisms that relaxed restrictions to marriage dissolution. |
| Keywords: | divorce, childcare, full-time schools |
| JEL: | J12 J13 J18 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15304&r= |
| By: | Joshua Mask (Department of Economics, Temple University) |
| Abstract: | The literature has traditionally focused on the local unemployment rate one faces at the beginning of their career to measure how initial economic conditions affect long-run outcomes. However, the unemployment rate moves in response to changes in labor supply or labor demand. Using JOLTS State Estimates for job openings, hires, and separations along with Local Area Unemployment Statistics, I test how changes in more direct measures of demand at labor market entry affect long run outcomes. I find that for every one point increase in the local unemployed-to-job-opening ratio, annual earnings are reduced by 4.53% and remain depressed for 13 years. Conversely, I find that a one percentage point increase in the local job openings rate or the local quits rate, increases initial annual earnings by 8.15% and 14.23%, respectively. |
| Keywords: | wage scarring, labor discrimination, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey |
| JEL: | J11 J15 J16 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tem:wpaper:2201&r= |
| By: | HERRMANN Benedikt (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Revenues from taxes on local economic activities to local budgets can work as a reward for municipalities, which pursue local policies conducive for development of the local business. The variety of taxes generating revenues from local economy to local budgets is very large within Europe. This survey reviews the structure of taxes and their share in revenues of municipalities’ budgets in 2019 across Member States. There are substantial differences across EU Member States in the share of revenues from taxes on local economic activities to local budgets, which work as an award for efforts of municipalities to increase productivity of local business. Shares range from 0 % to 66 %. EU Member States with such shares equal or higher EU-average had stronger economic growth in the period 2015-2019 than EU Member States with shares below EU average, indicating that these shares could play an important role for sustainable economic development at national level. |
| Keywords: | Municipalities, tax revenues, economic growth |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc129095&r= |
| By: | Haddad, Eduardo (Departamento de Economia, Universidade de São Paulo); Araújo, Inácio (Departamento de Economia, Universidade de São Paulo) |
| Abstract: | The spurt of data and organized quantitative information from different archaeological sources has challenged established truths about the ancient economy in the last three decades. The range of tools and techniques for exploiting these archaeological sources has also grown dramatically. As a result, new questions are raised, which put our sources in a broader context that increasingly favors the long-term perspective. In this paper, we discuss, using a case study, how the use of numbers can shed light in the study of ancient Roman history, with a particular interest in its economy. Our illustrative exercises focus on the use of regional science approaches, a discipline at the crossroads of economics and geography. Departing from a general equilibrium conceptual framework, we are particularly interested in Sir Alan G. Wilson’s seminal contributions as conducive to our exploration of digital numismatic databases to unravel spatial processes in the ancient world. Deriving from universal laws of physics, we will explore principles of spatial interaction modeling applied to numismatic data for the late Roman Republic that will help understand spatial interaction processes in the ancient Roman economy in the last two centuries BCE. By measuring, mapping, and modeling archaeological observations (i.e., numismatic records), we expect to make sense of patterns in the data formally and to use these insights comparatively and longitudinally, as preconized by different authors. |
| Keywords: | spatial networks; Roman economy; numismatics; spatial interaction; regional science |
| JEL: | C21 F15 N90 R12 |
| Date: | 2022–05–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nereus:2022_002&r= |
| By: | Christos Genakos; Eleni Kyrkopoulou |
| Abstract: | Policy makers frequently use education as a welfare policy instrument. We examine one such case, where students from large and financially constrained families, were given the opportunity to be transferred to university departments in their hometown as part of the social policy of the Ministry of Education in Greece. Multiple law changes meant that there was a large and quasi-random variability in the number of transferred students over time, which was orthogonal to the quality of receiving students. We construct a novel dataset by linking students' characteristics and pre-university academic performance with their university academic record until graduation for the top economics department. We present consistent evidence showing how a social policy that is meant to help poor families and to alleviate inequalities has gone bad educationally, by lowering the academic performance of receiving students. |
| Keywords: | peer effects, externalities, university education, unintended consequences |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1851&r= |
| By: | Matti Sarvimäki (Aalto University School of Business, VATT and Helsinki GSE); Hanna Pesola (VATT Institute for Economic Research and Helsinki GSE) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that an integration policy aimed at unemployed adult immigrants generated positive spillovers for their children. Our research design builds on a discontinuity in the phase-in-rule of Finland’s 1999 reform that introduced integration plans—a new approach for allocating unemployed immigrants to active labor market policies. We find that parents’ integration plans substantially improved their children’s grades and educational attainment and reduced their time out of employment, education, or training. Our examination of potential mechanisms suggests that integration plans increased parents’ earnings, employment and exposure to native colleagues and pushed their children to better schools. |
| Keywords: | Immigrants, integration policy, intergenerational effects |
| JEL: | J61 J68 J13 H53 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2212&r= |
| By: | Koen van Ruijven (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Joep Tijm (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis) |
| Abstract: | We find strong associations between house prices and environmental factors that are directly noticeable. This mainly concerns noise pollution and the amount of greenery and water in close proximity to a house. The strong negative associations for noise are mainly found in low levels (below 40 dB) and at high levels (above 65 dB). We find positive effects up to 200 meters for the presence of greenery and water. After 200 meters we find no, or only a small negative association with house prices. Surprisingly, air pollution is only weakly related to housing prices. These results follow from research in which we relate house prices to this set of environmental factors. We find the strongest price effects for greenery and water within 50 meters of a house. In particular, the price relationship for greenery decreases the further away the greenery is from a house. For example, we see that a 10% increase in the percentage of grass and shrubs (trees) within 50 meters is associated with a 1% to 4% (1% to 3%) increase in house prices. For water, we find that a comparable 10% increase is associated with a 0.5% to 1.5% increase in house prices. Our results have important policy implications, as they suggest that households have a limited willingness to pay for environmental goods that they do not directly notice. This result is especially relevant for air pollution. Recent studies indicate that health costs are significantly higher than our estimates of what households seem willing to pay for better air quality. This suggests that households are not fully aware of the effects of local air pollution on their health when purchasing their home. |
| JEL: | Q51 Q53 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpb:discus:438&r= |
| By: | Hideo Akabayashi (Faculty of Economics, Keio University); Shimpei Taguchi (Graduate School of Economics, Keio University); Mirka Zvedelikova (Graduate School of Economics, Keio University) |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has forced schools around the world to close, and Japanese schools were no exception. While many previous studies have identified an inequality in the access to online school education based on family background, few studies have simultaneously examined the access to online education both at school and outside school, and no study has examined parents' views about online school education, an important demand side factor. Using a panel dataset collected in May and December 2020, we examine the determinants of at-school and outside-school online experience. We observe that children in private schools and those from high-income households received more online education at school, and children from high-income households and those with a highly educated parent experienced more online education outside school. Further, we find that a greater increase of COVID-19 between May and December was associated with increased access to online education outside the school, especially for children in private schools and those with a highly educated parent, while we do not observe this trend in at-school online education. We also find that household income and parent's high educational level are also associated with higher demand for at-school online education, while mothers being employed in regular contracts and fathers in non-regular contracts decreased this demand in the short term. |
| Keywords: | Online education, COVID-19, Family background, Parental work, Japan |
| JEL: | I24 I28 J81 |
| Date: | 2022–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:2022-006&r= |
| By: | Murray, Cameron (The University of Sydney); Phibbs, Peter |
| Abstract: | Economists have taken a strong interest in identifying the costs of land use regulation. But how good is their evidence? We examine three economic approaches to this question—regulatory intensity, zoning tax, and housing as opportunity—and summarise the type of evidence used and its weaknesses. Despite strong claims about enormous economic costs from planning and zoning, the evidence used in these approaches often relies on questionable assumptions to interpret the data. In most cases, there are realistic alternative economic theories that fit the data but generate quite different conclusions. Planners are cautioned against taking these results at face value and adopting these methods without considering the hidden assumptions. |
| Date: | 2022–04–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:69m23&r= |
| By: | Timothy Ludlow; Jonas Fooken; Christiern Rose; Kam Tang |
| Abstract: | Housing expenditure tends to be sticky and costly to adjust, and makes up a large proportion of household expenditure. Additionally, the loss of housing can have catastrophic consequences. These specific features of housing expenditure imply that housing stress could cause negative mental health impacts. This research investigates the effects of housing stress on mental health, contributing to the literature by nesting housing stress within a measure of financial hardship, thus improving robustness to omitted variables and creating a natural comparison group for matching. Fixed effects (FE) regressions and a difference-in-differences (DID) methodology are estimated utilising data from the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey. The results show that renters who are in housing stress have a significant decline in self-reported mental health, with those in prior financial hardship being more severely affected. In contrast, there is little to no evidence of housing stress impacting on owners with a mortgage. The results also suggest that the mental health impact of housing stress is more important than some, but not all, aspects of financial hardship. |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2205.01255&r= |
| By: | Charlotte Guillard; Ralf Martin; Pierre Mohnen; Catherine Thomas; Dennis Verhoeven |
| Abstract: | Research and development is underprovided whenever it creates knowledge spillovers that drive a wedge between its total and private economic returns. Heterogeneity in the intensity of this market failure across technological areas provides an argument to vertically target public support for R&D. This paper examines potential welfare gains of such vertical industrial policy for innovation. It develops measures of private and spillover value of patented innovations using global data on patents and their citations. Our new method identifies a large number 'Hidden Giants' - i.e. innovations scoring higher on our new spillover measure than on the traditional forward citation count measure - which are shown to be particularly prevalent among patents applied for by universities. The estimated distributions of private values by technology area are then used to parameterize a structural model of innovation. The model permits estimation of the marginal returns to technology-area-specific subsidies that reduce innovators' R&D costs. Marginal returns are high when knowledge spillovers in the technology area are valuable, when private innovation costs are low, and when private values in a technology sector are densely distributed around the private cost. The results show large variation in the marginal returns to subsidy and suggest that targeted industrial policy would have helped mitigate underprovision of R&D over the time period studied. Variation in the extent to which knowledge spillovers are internalized within countries also makes a compelling case for supranational policy coordination, especially among smaller countries. |
| Keywords: | research and development, patented innovations, decoupling, targeted industrial policy |
| Date: | 2021–11–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1813&r= |
| By: | Singh, Tejendra Pratap |
| Abstract: | Air pollution remains one of the most challenging environmental phenomena. Despite its importance in impacting various facets of everyday life, there is a paucity of well-identified air pollution estimates on short-term outcomes for developing countries. Using novel data, I provide detailed empirical evidence on the direct effect of air pollution on student absenteeism in India by linking local exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) to school attendance. I find a large negative effect of increased air pollution on school attendance. My results are robust to a host of specifications and a battery of robustness checks. Consistent with other works, I find that the effect is more pronounced for younger students and find evidence for differential impacts of air pollution on absenteeism by gender. Exploring the mechanisms behind increased absenteeism, I show that reduced school attendance might be resulting from increased incidence of respiratory ailments in the students exposed to air pollution. |
| Date: | 2022–05–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:pcva2&r= |
| By: | Akkoyunlu Åžule (Åžule Akkoyunlu); Gil Epstein (Gil S. Epstein); Ira Gang (Ira N. Gang) |
| Abstract: | Distinguishing between short-run and long-run outcomes we provide new insight into the relationship between education and migration. We examine the specific link between the acquisition of high levels of human capital in the form of university education in Turkey and migration to Germany. We implement bounds testing procedures to ascertain the long-run relationships with the variables of interest in a migration model. Although the bounds testing procedure has advantages compared to other methods, it has not been widely implemented in the migration literature. We find a negative and decreasing non-linear long-run and short-run relationship between home country university education and Turkish migration to Germany over 1970-2015. Over the long run, increased higher education reduces emigration flows. |
| Keywords: | Education; Migration; Turkey; Germany |
| JEL: | C22 F22 F63 I25 I26 O15 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2211&r= |
| By: | Clemens, Michael A. (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | International migrants who seek protection also participate in the economy. Thus the policy of the United States to drastically reduce refugee and asylum-seeker arrivals from 2017 to 2020 might have substantial and ongoing economic consequences. This paper places conservative bounds on those effects by critically reviewing the research literature. It goes beyond prior estimates by including ripple effects beyond the wages earned or taxes paid directly by migrants. The sharp reduction in U.S. refugee admissions starting in 2017 costs the overall U.S. economy today over $9.1 billion per year ($30,962 per missing refugee per year, on average) and costs public coffers at all levels of government over $2.0 billion per year ($6,844 per missing refugee per year, on average) net of public expenses. Large reductions in the presence of asylum seekers during the same period likewise carry ongoing costs in the billions of dollars per year. These estimates imply that barriers to migrants seeking protection, beyond humanitarian policy concerns, carry substantial economic costs. |
| Keywords: | immigration, immigrant, migrant, refugee, asylum, asylee, costs, wages, employment, labor, market, fiscal, public, coffers, welfare, benefits, GDP, growth |
| JEL: | F62 H60 J61 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15317&r= |