nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2022‒06‒13
fifty papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Real Estate Agent Earnings and Local Housing Prices By Hirsch, Barry; Macpherson, David A.; Qu, Zichong (Tom)
  2. "Airbnb in the City" : assessing short-term rental regulation in Bordeaux By Calum Robertson; Sylvain Dejean; Raphaël Suire
  3. Rising sea levels and the future of coastal cities By Guy Michaels
  4. The Impacts on College Enrollment of a Charter Network Serving Disadvantaged Students: Evidence from KIPP Middle School Lotteries By Ira Nichols-Barrer; Maria Bartlett; Thomas Coen; Philip Gleason
  5. First-Time Buyers Were Undeterred by Rapid Home Price Appreciation in 2021 By Donghoon Lee; Joseph Tracy
  6. Housing Unaffordability and Adolescent Subjective Well-Being in China By Nie, Peng; Li, Qiaoge; Sousa-Poza, Alfonso
  7. Faith and Assimilation: Italian Immigrants in the US By Stefano Gagliarducci; Marco Tabellini
  8. The effect of second generation rent controls: New evidence from Catalonia By Joan Monràs; José Garcia Montalvo
  9. Incentivizing flexible workers in the gig economy: The case of ride-hailing By Selcuk, Cemil; Gokpinar, Bilal
  10. Fiscal decentralization and income (re)distribution in OECD countries' regions By Pietrovito, Filomena; Pozzolo, Alberto Franco; Resce, Giuliano; Scialà , Antonio
  11. Relatedness in regional development: in search of the right specification By Yang Li; Frank Neffke
  12. Peers Affect Personality Development By Xiaoque Shan; Ulf Zölitz
  13. Constructive extraction? Encomienda, the colonial state, and development in Colombia By Jean-Paul Faguet; Camilo Matajira; Fabio Sánchez-Torres
  14. Educational Inequality* By Jo Blanden; Matthias Doepke; Jan Stuhler
  15. What's across the Border? Re-Evaluating the Cross-Border Evidence on Minimum Wage Effects By Jha, Priyaranjan; Neumark, David; Rodriguez-Lopez, Antonio
  16. Weather to Protest: The Effect of Black Lives Matter Protests on the 2020 Presidential Election By Bouke Klein Teeselink; Georgios Melios
  17. A Rising Tide? The Local Incidence of the Second Wave of Globalization By Rowena Gray; Greg C. Wright
  18. Exploring the Associations of the Pre-K CLASS with Children’s School Readiness in FACES 2014: Associations for Subgroups and Thresholds of Quality By Tutrang Nguyen; Jessica Harding; Nikki Aikens; Jeffrey Harrington; Judy Cannon
  19. To What Extent Are CILs Serving Out-Of-School Youth from Minority Backgrounds? By Stacie Feldman; Purvi Sevak; Mira Wang; Sharonlyn Harrison
  20. Gender stereotypes in education: Policies and practices to address gender stereotyping across OECD education systems By Ottavia Brussino; Jody McBrien
  21. Television Market Size and Political Accountability in the US House of Representatives By Balles, Patrick; Matter, Ulrich; Stutzer, Alois
  22. Working with Out-of-School Youth from Minority Backgrounds: What CILs Offer and What They Value By Stacie Feldman; Purvi Sevak; Mira Wang
  23. Investing in Early Childhood Development in Preschool and at Home By Greg Duncan; Ariel Kalil; Magne Mogstad; Mari Rege
  24. Crime and weather. Evidence from the Czech Republic. By Vojtech Misak
  25. Regional Consumption Responses and the Aggregate Fiscal Multiplier By Dupor, Bill; Karabarbounis, Marios; Kudlyak, Marianna; Mehkari, M. Saif
  26. The Collateral Channel and Bank Credit By Arun Gupta; Horacio Sapriza; Vladimir Yankov
  27. Level best? The levelling up agenda and UK regional inequality By Bandeira Morais, Margarida; Lee, Neil; Fransham, Mark; Pop, Mihaela; Fransham, Mark
  28. Demographics of Youth and Young Adults with Disabilities Who are Not Working and Not in School: Descriptive Findings from National Survey Data By Anna Hill; Purvi Sevak
  29. Learning loss since lockdown By Lee Elliot Major; Andrew Eyles; Stephen Machin
  30. Modeling equilibrium responses to climate-induced migration By Jared C. Carbone; Sul-Ki Lee; Yuzhou Shen
  31. Measuring Knowledge By James J. Heckman; Jin Zhou
  32. Multi-population analysis reveals spatial consistency in drivers of population dynamics of a declining migratory bird By Nater, Chloé Rebecca; Burgess, Malcolm D.; Coffey, Peter; Harris, Bob; Lander, Frank; Price, David; Reed, Mike; Robinson, Rob
  33. Migration and University Education: An Empirical (Macro) Link By Akkoyunlu, Sule; Epstein, Gil S.; Gang, Ira N.
  34. Parole, Recidivism, and the Role of Supervised Transition By William Arbour; Steeve Marchand
  35. An Integrated Investment Appraisal of a Public Private Partnership (PPP) Ghana Road Project By Majid Hashemi; Mikhail Miklyaev
  36. A Dynamic Analysis of Criminal Networks By Luca Colombo; Paola Labrecciosa; Agnieszka Rusinowska
  37. Performative vs. Authentic Equity Work: How the California Transportation Sector Can Continue to Do Better By McCullough, Sarah R.; Erasmus, C. Sequoia
  38. The Long-Term Effects of Early-Life Exposure to Weather Shocks: Evidence from Tanzania By Ermias Gebru Weldesenbet
  39. Primary School Literacy: A Case Study of the Educate a Child Initiative By Abbas Moosvi
  40. The usefulness and perverse effects of distance learning in a pandemic world By Natalia Bourova; Veronika Choubaeva; Jacques Fontanel
  41. An Integrated Investment Appraisal of a Road Project in Zimbabwe By Precious P. Adeshina; Mikhail Miklyaev
  42. The effects of college capital projects on student outcomes By Stephen Gibbons; Claudia Hupkau; Sandra McNally; Henry G. Overman
  43. A Smart Shift from Private Cars to Public Transport Can Help to Reduce Smog/Air Pollution in Pakistan By Abedullah
  44. Dual Circulation and Population Mobility during the Pandemic in China By Lee, Wang-Sheng; Tran, Trang My; Yu, Lamont Bo
  45. When Immigrants Meet Exporters : A Reassessment of the Immigrant Wage Gap By Marchal, Léa; Ourens, Guzmán; Sabbadini, Giulia
  46. The Benefits of Early Work Experience for School Dropouts: Evidence from a Field Experiment By Jérémy Hervelin; Pierre Villedieu
  47. Did COVID-19 induce a reallocation wave? By Agostino Consolo; Filippos Petroulakis
  48. Social Information and Educational Investment - Nudging Remedial Math Course Participation By Brade, Raphael
  49. How long do voluntary lockdowns keep people at home? The role of social capital during the COVID-19 pandemic By Yuta Kuroda; Takaki Sato; Yasumasa Matsuda
  50. Italy: No country for highly educated immigrant workers By d'Agostino, Giorgio; Pieroni, Luca; Scarlato, Margherita

  1. By: Hirsch, Barry (Georgia State University); Macpherson, David A. (Trinity University); Qu, Zichong (Tom)
    Abstract: Real estate agents typically receive commissions based on a fixed percentage of home price purchases. Because housing prices vary across markets, one might expect that realtors have higher earnings in high-priced markets. Prior work by Hsieh and Moretti (2003) suggests that entry among realtors leads to roughly equivalent earnings across markets. We examine evidence from U.S. metro areas during 1996-2021 using Zillow housing price indices, coupled with realtor microdata (the CPS and ACS) including realtors' location, earnings, and work hours. Realtors' earnings elasticity with respect to local home prices is roughly 0.30, so that 10 percent higher home prices lead to 3 percent higher earnings. The positive wage-price relationship is not unique to realtors. The overall workforce has wage-price elasticities (conditioned on covariates) of about 0.20, two-thirds the size of realtors' elasticity. Realtors receive slightly higher earnings in higher-priced cities, about 1 percent for each 10 percent difference in housing prices. Weekly work hours across markets vary little with respect to metro housing prices, both for realtors and non-realtors. Evidence supports Hsieh and Moretti's conclusion that "over-entry" in high-priced markets is due to the inefficiency of fixed percentage commissions. Realtors have higher hourly earnings (and variance) than do "similar" non-realtor workers within the same labor markets, on the order of 10 percent. Evidence supports the view that real estate agents (on average) realize wage premiums. We suspect that higher earnings reflects both unmeasured personal attributes and compensating differentials for risk (e.g., variable earnings).
    Keywords: wages, housing prices, real estate agents, wage differentials
    JEL: J31 J44 R3
    Date: 2022–05
  2. By: Calum Robertson (CEREGE - CEntre de REcherche en GEstion - EA 1722 - IAE Poitiers - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Poitiers - Université de Poitiers - Université de Poitiers - ULR - La Rochelle Université); Sylvain Dejean (CEREGE - CEntre de REcherche en GEstion - EA 1722 - IAE Poitiers - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Poitiers - Université de Poitiers - Université de Poitiers - ULR - La Rochelle Université); Raphaël Suire (Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université)
    Abstract: Short-term rental platforms, led by Airbnb, have disrupted the tourism accommodation industry over the last decade. This disruption has sometimes come along with unwanted long lasting effects on the urban dynamics of cities, and it has encouraged policy-makers to intervene. However, little is known about how effective such interventions are. This paper empirically evaluates the impact Bordeaux's regulation has had on STR activity through both a Differences-indifferences and a spatial discontinuity design. We find that regulation has had a reductive effect of over 316 rented days per month per district on average. This equates to over half of a preregulation standard deviation and 27 thousand nights spent per month in STRs across the city. However, the city's attempts to limit activity stemming from commercial listings yields mixed results as compliant homesharing listings also seem to have modified their behaviour. Additionally, analysis at the city border points towards the existence of potential spillover effects on the suburbs, further paving the way for discussion about the effectiveness of one-size-fits-all STR policy design.
    Keywords: Housing,Spatial Discontinuity,Tourism,Short-term rental,Airbnb,Regulation,Differences-indifferences
    Date: 2022–03–28
  3. By: Guy Michaels
    Abstract: Despite the higher susceptibility to floods and a growing climate crisis, more than 10% of the world's population lives in low-elevation coastal zones - and that share is increasing. Guy Michaels and colleagues present a detailed picture of housing in these areas - and how rising sea levels may reshape cities.
    Keywords: Economic geography, climate, climate change, housing, inequality, equality, cities, sea level rise
    Date: 2021–10–15
  4. By: Ira Nichols-Barrer; Maria Bartlett; Thomas Coen; Philip Gleason
    Abstract: KIPP middle schools have a long-term positive impact on students, boosting enrollment in four-year college programs.
    Keywords: charter schools, school choice, college entry, experimental design
  5. By: Donghoon Lee; Joseph Tracy
    Abstract: Tight inventories of homes for sale combined with strong demand pushed up national house prices by an eye-popping 19 percent, year over year, in January 2022. This surge in house prices created concerns that first-time buyers would increasingly be priced out of owning a home. However, using our Consumer Credit Panel, which is based on anonymized Equifax credit report data, we find that the share of purchase mortgages going to first-time buyers actually increased slightly from 2020 to 2021.
    Keywords: first time home buyer; home price
    JEL: D14 R31
    Date: 2022–05–12
  6. By: Nie, Peng (Xi’an Jiaotong University); Li, Qiaoge (Xi’an Jiaotong University); Sousa-Poza, Alfonso (University of Hohenheim)
    Abstract: Using the 2010-2018 waves of the China Family Panel Studies, we investigate the impact of housing unaffordability on subjective well-being (SWB) among Chinese adolescents aged 10-15. Using a combined methodology of propensity score matching and fixed effects and instrumental variable estimations, we show that housing unaffordability leads to higher levels of depression, with more pronounced impacts among older adolescents (aged 13-15), those from migrant and urban families, and those living in regions with high housing prices and expensive living costs. These results are robust not only to alternative housing unaffordability and SWB measures but to a series of estimation approaches that control for endogeneity. An additional structural equation modelling analysis of underlying pathways further reveals that this housing unaffordability-SWB relation is mediated by paternal depression and (lower) adolescent trust in parents.
    Keywords: housing unaffordability, depression, adolescents, China
    JEL: D10 I10 I31 J13 R21
    Date: 2022–05
  7. By: Stefano Gagliarducci; Marco Tabellini
    Abstract: How do ethnic religious organizations influence immigrants’ assimilation in host societies? This paper offers the first systematic answer to this question by focusing on Italian Catholic churches in the US between 1890 and 1920, when four million Italians moved to America, and anti-Catholic sentiments were widespread. Relying on newly collected data on the presence of Italian Catholic churches across counties over time, we implement a difference-in-differences design. We find that Italian churches reduced the social assimilation of Italian immigrants, lowering intermarriage, residential integration, and naturalization rates. We provide evidence that stronger coordination within the Italian community and natives' backlash and negative stereotyping can explain these effects. Despite the negative effects on Italians' social assimilation, Italian churches had ambiguous effects on immigrants' economic outcomes, and increased children's literacy and ability to speak English.
    JEL: J15 N31 Z12
    Date: 2022–04
  8. By: Joan Monràs; José Garcia Montalvo
    Abstract: Catalonia enacted a second-generation rental cap policy in late September 2020. The policy affected some municipalities but not others, and within those, only the units above a certain reference price. Using micro-data on rental units, we analyze the effect of the policy on both rental prices and rental supply. We find that the policy led to a reduction in rental prices of around 5 percent. Half of this price decline is due to changes in the composition of units available in the market, particularly in larger municipalities. The policy also led to a decline in the amount of rental units available in the market. Using variation from the policy change, we compute a rental housing supply elasticity of around 4.
    Keywords: Rent control, reference price, housing supply, event study
    JEL: D4 R21 R28 R31
    Date: 2021–12
  9. By: Selcuk, Cemil (Cardiff Business School); Gokpinar, Bilal (UCL School of Management)
    Abstract: Creating the right incentives for a flexible workforce lies at the heart of the gig economy. For most companies, a key question is how to best connect a limited number of independent workers in their platforms with service-seeking consumers through the right pricing and matching mechanisms. We focus on ride-hailing where drivers have significant discretion over where and when to work across different locations. Building a spatial model, we study how a platform can create incentives for independent drivers via prices and commissions, and how such policies affect driversísearch behavior across a network of locations. Contrary to common perception, we find that the áexibility of the commissions, and not the flexibility of prices, plays a dominant role in resolving local demand and supply mismatch. This is because location based price hikes at the bottlenecks negatively distort the local demand and generally do a poor job in incentivizing drivers towards such locations. Adjusting the commissions, on the other hand, does not interfere with the local demand; creates better incentives for the drivers, and therefore is more suitable to mitigate the effects of bottlenecks. Simulations based on actual ride patterns from New York City and Los Angeles confirm our insights.
    Keywords: Ride-sharing, Gig workersícompensation, Flexible commission, Sharing economy
    Date: 2022–06
  10. By: Pietrovito, Filomena; Pozzolo, Alberto Franco; Resce, Giuliano; Scialà , Antonio
    Abstract: Cross-country income inequality has declined in the last decades, but this trend has been paralleled by an increase in within-countries inequality. At the same time, many governments have implemented fiscal decentralization policies, devolving increasing decision-making powers on fiscal matters to sub-national levels of government. In this paper, we provide empirical evidence on the relationship between fiscal decentralization and intra-regional income redistribution, based on regional level data on inequality and government revenues for 187 regions of 15 OECD countries. Our results show that within region income redistribution is negatively associated with fiscal decentralization, especially when it takes the form of revenue decentralization.
    Keywords: Fiscal Decentralization, Inequality, OECD Regions
    JEL: H2 H7 R5
    Date: 2022–05–30
  11. By: Yang Li; Frank Neffke
    Abstract: A large body of research has documented that the size and growth of an industry in a city or region depends on the local size of related industries. However, there is no consensus on how to best measure, either the relatedness between industries, or how well a particular industry fits a local economy as a whole. In this paper, we perform a structured search over tens of thousands of specifications to identify optimal – in terms of out-of-sample predictions – ways to construct these quantities, using a dataset that allows us to derive relatedness from co-occurrence patterns of industries in establishments, firms, regions and countries. We find that these di
    Date: 2022–04
  12. By: Xiaoque Shan; Ulf Zölitz
    Abstract: Do the people around us influence our personality? To answer this question, we conduct an experiment with 543 university students who we randomly assign to study groups. Our results show that students become more similar to their peers along several dimensions. Students with more competitive peers become more competitive, students with more open-minded peers become more open-minded, and students with more conscientious peers become more conscientious. We see no significant effects of peers’ extraversion, agreeableness, or neuroticism. To explain these results, we propose a simple model of personality development under the influence of peers. Consistent with the model’s prediction, personality spillovers are concentrated in traits predictive of performance. Students adopt personality traits that are productive in the university context from their peers. Our findings highlight that socialization with peers can influence personality development.
    Keywords: personality, malleability, peer effects, experiment
    JEL: I21 I24 J24
    Date: 2022
  13. By: Jean-Paul Faguet; Camilo Matajira; Fabio Sánchez-Torres
    Abstract: The Spanish encomienda, a colonial forced-labor institution that lasted three centuries, killed many indigenous people and caused others to flee into nomadism. And yet we show that Colombian municipalities with encomiendas in 1560 enjoy better outcomes today across multiple dimensions of development compared to those without: higher municipal GDP per capita, tax receipts, and secondary school enrolments; lower infant mortality and unsatisfied basic needs; larger populations; and superior fiscal performance and tax collection efficiency. Why? A mediation exercise using data on local institutions in 1794 shows that encomiendas affected development overwhelmingly by helping build the local state. Detailed historical evidence shows when and how encomenderos founded local institutions early on in places where they settled. Places lacking encomiendas also lacked local states for up to 300 years. These institutions mobilized public investment in ways that doubtless suited encomenderos, but over time spurred greater economic and human development.
    Keywords: EncomiendaForced laborState capacityExtractionColonialismDevelopmentColombia
    JEL: H7 N36 N96 O1 O43
    Date: 2022–05–12
  14. By: Jo Blanden; Matthias Doepke; Jan Stuhler
    Abstract: This chapter provides new evidence on educational inequality and reviews the literature on the causes and consequences of unequal education. We document large achievement gaps between children from different socio-economic backgrounds, show how patterns of educational inequality vary across countries, time, and generations, and establish a link between educational inequality and social mobility. We interpret this evidence from the perspective of economic models of skill acquisition and investment in human capital. The models account for different channels underlying unequal education and highlight how endogenous responses in parents' and children's educational investments generate a close link between economic inequality and educational inequality. Given concerns over the extended school closures during the Covid-19 pandemic, we also summarize early evidence on the impact of the pandemic on children's education and on possible long-run repercussions for educational inequality.
    JEL: I21 I24 J62
    Date: 2022–04
  15. By: Jha, Priyaranjan (CESifo); Neumark, David (University of California, Irvine); Rodriguez-Lopez, Antonio (CESifo)
    Abstract: Dube, Lester, and Reich (2010) argue that state-level minimum wage variation can be correlated with economic shocks, generating spurious evidence that higher minimum wages reduce employment. Using minimum wage variation within contiguous county pairs that share a state border, they find no relationship between minimum wages and employment in the U.S. restaurant industry. We show that this finding hinges critically on using cross-border counties to define local economic areas with which to control for economic shocks that are potentially correlated with minimum wage changes. We use, instead, multi-state commuting zones, which provide superior definitions of local economic areas. Using the same within-local area research design—but within cross-border commuting zones—we find a robust negative relationship between minimum wages and employment.
    Keywords: minimum wage, employment, commuting zones
    JEL: J23 J38
    Date: 2022–05
  16. By: Bouke Klein Teeselink; Georgios Melios
    Abstract: Do mass mobilizations bring about social change? This paper investigates the impact of the Black Lives Matter protests that erupted after George Floyd’s death on the 2020 presidential election. Using local precipitation as an exogenous source of protest variation, we document a marked shift in support for the Democratic candidate in counties that experienced more protesting activity. We use a spatial two-stage least squares estimator, and show that conventional TSLS estimators overestimate the effect size by a factor three. Ancillary analyses show that the effect cannot be explained by changes in turnout. Instead, protests shifted people’s attitudes about racial disparities.
    Keywords: Collective Action; Black Lives Matter; Presidential Elections; Protests; IV
    JEL: D72 J15
    Date: 2022–05–22
  17. By: Rowena Gray; Greg C. Wright
    Abstract: We estimate the short- and long-run local labor market impacts of the large increase in U.S. imports and exports that occurred over the 1970s. We exploit the sequential opening of overseas shipping container ports over the period, which generated discontinuous changes in U.S. trade ows. We find that the impacts of the export shock on employment, income, and home and rental prices were large, but short-lived, suggesting that U.S. local labor markets equilibrated quickly. The import effects were also large and mostly short-lived, but we find strong persistence in the impact on home and rental prices. We exploit differences in housing supply elasticities across markets to show that this is due to the fact that the housing stock is durable and so does not easily contract, a result with important welfare implications. Overall, we estimate that the net impact of the shock was to raise manufacturing sector employment by 250,000 workers over the decade of the 1970s.
    Keywords: containerization, international trade, globalization, housing durability
    JEL: F14 F16 F66 J21 R31
    Date: 2022
  18. By: Tutrang Nguyen; Jessica Harding; Nikki Aikens; Jeffrey Harrington; Judy Cannon
    Abstract: This study examines associations between scores on the Pre-K Classroom Assessment Scoring System and children’s school readiness outcomes, whether these associations vary by children’s background characteristics, and whether there are thresholds at which these associations are stronger.
    Keywords: Early childhood, Head Start, Preschool, Classroom quality
  19. By: Stacie Feldman; Purvi Sevak; Mira Wang; Sharonlyn Harrison
    Abstract: This brief shares information on the prevalence of out-of-school youth with disabilities among centers for independent living consumers, and the racial, ethnic, and gender composition of these youth consumers.
    Keywords: Minority youth, transition aged youth, disability, centers for independent living, intersectionality, youth transitions, employment
  20. By: Ottavia Brussino (OECD); Jody McBrien (OECD)
    Abstract: In spite of advances in recognising that girls and boys, and women and men, do not have to be bounded by traditional roles, gender stereotypes persist in education and beyond. Children and youth are affected by gender stereotypes from the early ages, with parental, school, teacher and peer factors influencing the way students internalise their gender identities. As such, not only is intervening in pre-primary education necessary, but also measures at the primary and secondary levels are key to eradicate gender stereotypes and promote gender equality. Based on the analytical framework developed by the OECD Strength through Diversity project, this paper provides an overview of gender stereotyping in education, with some illustrations of policies and practices in place across OECD countries, with a focus on curriculum arrangements, capacity-building strategies and school-level interventions in primary and secondary education.
    Date: 2022–05–19
  21. By: Balles, Patrick (University of Basel); Matter, Ulrich (University of Basel); Stutzer, Alois (University of Basel)
    Abstract: This paper examines the role of local TV market structure in US congressional politics, exploiting variation in the overlaps of political markets and TV markets. Local TV stations are hypothesized to report relatively more per US House representative in less populous markets (where the number of House districts covered is smaller), leading to better informed voters and more accountable representatives. We find that smaller markets are indeed associated with (i) higher coverage of representatives, and (ii) a higher level of voters' knowledge about their representatives. However, (iii) representatives of smaller and more congruent markets are only more likely to decide aligned with their constituents' policy preferences in highly competitive districts. This evidence suggests that local political news coverage on TV serves as a complement rather than a substitute in holding members of the US Congress accountable.
    Keywords: political accountability, market congruence, media coverage, TV markets, legislative voting, US Congress, voter knowledge, campaign finance
    JEL: D72 L82
    Date: 2022–05
  22. By: Stacie Feldman; Purvi Sevak; Mira Wang
    Abstract: This brief describes services that centers for independent living (CILs) have provided to out-of-school youth with disabilities from minority backgrounds, and the extent to which CILs believe specific services are critical to successful independent living.
    Keywords: Minority youth, transition aged youth, disability, centers for independent living, intersectionality, youth transitions, employment
  23. By: Greg Duncan; Ariel Kalil; Magne Mogstad; Mari Rege
    Abstract: The foundations for successful child development are established in early childhood. Two main policy approaches for strengthening these foundations have been subsidized preschool programs and programs targeting the home environment. Our chapter reviews a large body of empirical work investigating whether these programs make a difference for children’s development, and if so, how and under what conditions do they help, how cost-effective are they, and which programs are scalable. We start by reviewing studies that estimate how much of the variation in child outcomes can be explained by genetics versus environmental factors. These studies demonstrate that variation in environmental factors plays a key role in explaining individual life outcomes. This suggests that early childhood programs might play a significant role in helping children realize their potential in life. Nevertheless, our review of early childhood programs demonstrates that the evidence is mixed – some programs are successful in fostering lasting skill development, but many are not. We conclude that existing research on early childhood education falls short of sufficiently answering fundamental questions about what works for whom and why. A tighter link between theory, econometric methods and data is essential to compare and reconcile the mixed and sometimes conflicting empirical results across studies, and to understand when and why the impacts of home environment and pre-school interventions fade out.
    JEL: J13
    Date: 2022–04
  24. By: Vojtech Misak (Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: This article estimates the impact of weather on crime in the Czech Republic. Using detailed crime data during the years 2005-2015, I show that temperature has a significant positive effect on the total number of assaults, thefts, robberies and sexual crimes recorded. Furthermore, precipitation is found to have a negative significant effect on the number of assaults and sexual crimes committed. Finally, based on my results, temperature seems to cause an overall increase in assaults´˜ and thefts´˜ rates. Heat effect on sexual crimes is more a substitution effect between cold and hot days.
    Keywords: crime, temperature, precipitation
    JEL: K14 K42 K49
    Date: 2022–05
  25. By: Dupor, Bill (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Karabarbounis, Marios (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond); Kudlyak, Marianna (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco); Mehkari, M. Saif (University of Richmond)
    Abstract: We use regional variation in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (2009-2012) to analyze the effect of government spending on consumer spending. Our consumption data come from household-level retail purchases in the Nielsen scanner data and auto purchases from Equifax credit balances. We estimate that a $1 increase in county-level government spending increases local non-durable consumer spending by $0.29 and local auto spending by $0.09. We translate the regional consumption responses to an aggregate fiscal multiplier using a multi-region, New Keynesian model with heterogeneous agents, incomplete markets, and trade linkages. Our model is consistent with the estimated positive local multiplier, a result that distinguishes our incomplete markets model from models with complete markets. At the zero lower bound, the aggregate consumption multiplier is twice as large as the local multiplier because trade linkages propagate the effect of government spending across regions.
    Keywords: consumer spending, fiscal multiplier, regional variation, heterogeneous agents
    JEL: E21 E62 H31 H71
    Date: 2022–04
  26. By: Arun Gupta; Horacio Sapriza; Vladimir Yankov
    Abstract: Our paper studies the role of the collateral channel for bank credit using confidential bank-firm-loan data. We estimate that for a 1 percent increase in collateral values, firms pledging real estate collateral experience a 12 basis point higher growth in bank lending with higher sensitivities for more credit constrained firms. Higher real estate values boost firm capital expenditures and lead to lower unemployment and higher employment growth and business creation. Our estimates imply that as much as 37 percent of employment growth over the period from 2013 to 2019 can be attributed to the relaxation of borrowing constraints.
    Keywords: Collateral channel; Firm borrowing constraints; Bank credit allocation; Corporate investment; Macro-finance; Transmission mechanism
    JEL: E44 G21
    Date: 2022–05–10
  27. By: Bandeira Morais, Margarida; Lee, Neil; Fransham, Mark; Pop, Mihaela; Fransham, Mark
    Abstract: ‘Levelling up’ - a policy agenda focused on reducing regional inequalities - has become the new mantra in British politics. This paper reviews and critiques the agenda from its beginnings in 2019 to the publication of the 2022 Levelling Up White Paper. The agenda is an overdue recognition of gross regional inequality, and the new ‘missions’ which are set out to drive change are welcome. Yet local institutions lack capacity to deliver, there has been little genuine devolution, and the mechanisms through which the ‘missions’ will actually be delivered are unclear. Our analysis of spending commitments shows little new money has been committed, and what has been committed has tended to be through top-down competitive bids. There is a danger that levelling up becomes the latest in a list of politically useful but empty slogans which are used as a substitute for resources and devolution.
    Keywords: levelling up; inequality; regions; cities; funding; policy; ES/V013548/1
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2022–04
  28. By: Anna Hill; Purvi Sevak
    Abstract: This brief presents characteristics of nonworking out-of-school youth with a disability nationally and at the county level and focuses on both demographic as well as socioeconomic characteristics.
    Keywords: Minority youth, transition aged youth, disability, centers for independent living, intersectionality, youth transitions, employment
  29. By: Lee Elliot Major; Andrew Eyles; Stephen Machin
    Abstract: Young people in education have lost significant amounts of time in school during the pandemic - and this carries risks of lifetime scars. Lee Elliot Major, Andrew Eyles and Stephen Machin reveal the scale of learning loss across the UK nations and assess what it means for future life opportunities.
    Keywords: Wellbeing, Schools, Social mobility, equality, Covid-19
    Date: 2021–10–15
  30. By: Jared C. Carbone (Department of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines); Sul-Ki Lee (Korean Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Yuzhou Shen (Department of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines)
    Abstract: We construct a quantitative model to simulate the impacts of climate change on U.S. domestic migration patterns. The model consists of an equilibrium framework for modeling counterfactual migration responses and their implications for regional welfare, prices and populations. The model's parameters are estimated using an econometric, locational sorting model, the structural equations of which are a key component of the equilibrium framework. The econometric model is estimated from demographically rich data from the U.S. Census. The parismonious structure of the equilibrium model allows us to incorporate much of this demographic richness in the simulation of the predicted migration flows.
    Keywords: climate change, domestic migration, regional economics
    JEL: D58 Q54 R13
    Date: 2022–05
  31. By: James J. Heckman; Jin Zhou
    Abstract: Empirical studies in the economics of education, the measurement of skill gaps across demographic groups, and the impacts of interventions on skill formation rely on psychometrically validated test scores that record the proportion of items correctly answered. Test scores are sometimes taken as measures of an invariant scale of human capital that can be compared over time and people. We show that for a prototypical test, invariance is violated. We use an unusually rich data set from an early childhood intervention program that measures knowledge of narrowly defined skills on essentially equivalent subsets of tasks. We examine if conventional, broadly-defined measures of skill are the same across people who are comparable on detailed knowledge measures. We reject the hypothesis of aggregate scale invariance and call into question the uncritical use of test scores in research on education and on skill formation. We compare different measures of skill and ability and reject the hypothesis of valid aggregate measures of skill.
    JEL: C81 I21 J71
    Date: 2022–04
  32. By: Nater, Chloé Rebecca; Burgess, Malcolm D.; Coffey, Peter; Harris, Bob; Lander, Frank; Price, David; Reed, Mike; Robinson, Rob
    Abstract: Many migratory species are in decline across their geographical ranges. Single-population studies can provide important insights into drivers at a local scale, but effective conservation requires multi-population perspectives. This is challenging because relevant data are often hard to consolidate, and state-of-the-art analytical tools are typically tailored to specific datasets. We capitalized on a recent data harmonization initiative (SPI-Birds) and linked it to a generalized modeling framework to identify the demographic and environmental drivers of large-scale population decline in migratory pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) breeding across Britain. We implemented a generalized integrated population model (IPM) to estimate age-specific vital rates, including their dependency on environmental conditions, and total and breeding population size of pied flycatchers using long-term (34-64 years) monitoring data from seven locations representative of the British breeding range. We then quantified the relative contributions of different vital rates and population structure to changes in short- and long-term population growth rate using transient life table response experiments (LTREs). Substantial covariation in population sizes across breeding locations suggested that change was the result of large-scale drivers. This was supported by LTRE analyses, which attributed past changes in short-term population growth rates and long-term population trends primarily to variation in annual survival and dispersal dynamics, which largely act during migration and/or non-breeding season. Contributions of variation in local reproductive parameters were small in comparison, despite sensitivity to local temperature and rainfall within the breeding period. We show that both short- and longer-term population changes of British-breeding pied flycatchers are likely linked to factors acting during migration and in non-breeding areas, where future research should be prioritized. We illustrate the potential of multi-population analyses for informing management at (inter)national scales and highlight the importance of data standardization, generalized and accessible analytical tools, and reproducible workflows to achieve them.
    Date: 2022–04–21
  33. By: Akkoyunlu, Sule (University of Bern); Epstein, Gil S. (Bar-Ilan University); Gang, Ira N. (Rutgers University)
    Abstract: Distinguishing between short-run and long-run outcomes we provide new insight into the relationship between education and migration. We examine the specific link between the acquisition of high levels of human capital in the form of university education in Turkey and migration to Germany. We implement bounds testing procedures to ascertain the long-run relationships with the variables of interest in a migration model. Although the bounds testing procedure has advantages compared to other methods, it has not been widely implemented in the migration literature. We find a negative and decreasing non-linear long-run and short-run relationship between home country university education and Turkish migration to Germany over 1970-2015. Over the long run, increased higher education reduces emigration flows.
    Keywords: education, migration, Turkey, Germany
    JEL: C22 F22 F63 I25 I26 O15
    Date: 2022–05
  34. By: William Arbour; Steeve Marchand
    Abstract: We estimate the causal effect of parole on recidivism by exploiting the random assignment of parole board members to hearings in Quebec prisons. Board members vary in their propensity to grant parole and to place parolees to supervised halfway houses. We find that parole decreases the likelihood of recidivism by 8 percentage points within 5 years. Parolees at the margin of remaining incarcerated spend on average 4 fewer months incarcerated during the course of the next 5 years. This effect is largely driven by the direct release of parolees, but also by reduced incarceration time in future sentences. We further investigate the role of halfway houses in the reintegration process by estimating their effect on different groups of compliers. Our analysis shows that a stay in a halfway house is especially effective for convicts at the margin of remaining incarcerated.
    Keywords: Parole, Recidivism, Halfway Houses, Reentry
    JEL: K42
    Date: 2022–05–23
  35. By: Majid Hashemi (Department of Economics, Queens University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada, K7L3N6 and Cambridge Resources International Inc.); Mikhail Miklyaev (Department of Economics, Queens University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada, K7L3N6 and Cambridge Resources International Inc.)
    Abstract: A feasibility studies was carried out on the main highway one of Ghana’s largest city which is a 19.5 km dual carriageway constructed as a freeway fifty years ago with an intended design life of 20 years. After several years of use and inadequate maintenance, the pavement has outlived its terminal level of serviceability with visible fatigue-cracking, joint failures, and pumping under wheel load and requires reconstruction. To address these issues and ensure the sustainability of Ghana’s socio-economic development trajectory, the Government of Ghana has identified the Main Highway Project as one of the transport infrastructure projects needed to support the country’s accelerated growth strategy.
    Keywords: Public-Private Partnership, Cost Benefit Analysis, Ghana
    JEL: D61 I38 H54 L92 R42
    Date: 2022–04–18
  36. By: Luca Colombo (Deakin Business School - Department of Economics, Australia); Paola Labrecciosa (Monash Business School - Department of Economics, Australia); Agnieszka Rusinowska (CNRS, Paris School of Economics, Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne)
    Abstract: The paper presents a novel approach based on differential games to the study of criminal networks. We extend the static crime network game (Ballester et al., 2004, 2006) to a dynamic setting. First, we determine the relationship between the Markov Perfect Equilibrium (MPE) and the vector of Bonacich centralities. The established proportionality between the Nash equilibrium and the Bonacich centrality in the static game does not hold in general in the dynamic setting. Next, focusing on regular networks, we provide an explicit characterization of equilibrium strategies, and conduct comparative dynamic analysis with respect to the network size, network density, and implicit growth rate of total wealth in the economy. Contrary to the static game, where aggregate equilibrium increases with network size and density, in the dynamic setting, more criminals or more connected criminals can lead to a decrease in total crime, both in the short run and at the steady state. We also examine another novel issue in the network theory literature, i.e., the existence of a voracity effect, occuring when an increase in the implicit growth rate of total wealth in the economy lowers economic growth. We do identify the presence of such a voracity effect in our setting
    Keywords: differential games; Markov Perfect Equilibrium; social networks; criminal networks; Bonacich centrality
    JEL: C73 D85 K42
    Date: 2022–02
  37. By: McCullough, Sarah R.; Erasmus, C. Sequoia
    Abstract: Transportation equity is a priority for agencies across the state. This research brief summarizes the study, "Assessing the Impact of Equity Work in Active and Sustainable Transportation," that highlighted the importance of distinguishing between performative and authentic equity work. Performative equity refers to actions, words, or gestures that claim to do equity work, but in practice do not improve matters for those historically oppressed, and in turn, reinforces root systems of dominance and status quo. Authentic equity work results in meaningful change to those most impacted by historical racism and oppression.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Case studies, Equity (Justice), Minorities, Mobility, Police, Transportation planning
    Date: 2022–05–01
  38. By: Ermias Gebru Weldesenbet
    Abstract: We examine whether early-life exposure to rainfall shocks has a long-term impact on health, education, and the socioeconomic statuses of individuals in rural Tanzania, where livelihoods heavily depend on rain-fed agriculture. We use a unique panel of data from a Kagera Health and Development Survey(KHDS) in which children were followed from childhood (1991) to adulthood (2010) together with historical rainfall data. We apply a sibling fixed-effect estimator to overcome potential endogeneity issues. We find that rainfall in birth year affects the education and socioeconomic statuses of children in adulthood. A 15 percent increase in rainfall in one’s birth year and birth village (relative to average village rainfall) leads children to have more years of schooling and live in a household in 2010 that scores 0.19 higher on an asset index. We then explore the relationship between early-life rainfall and childhood nutritional status to identify early-life rainfall’s initial effect. We find that higher birth-year rainfall leads to significant decreases in height and weight deficits in children. A 15 percent increase in rainfall in one’s birth year and birth village (relative to average village rainfall) improves height-for-age z score by 0.20 and weight-for-age z score by 0.26. When taken together, our results point to the importance of early childhood nutrition intervention. Sensitivity checks show that the results are robust to sample selection.
    Keywords: rainfall shocks; malnutrition; long-term outcomes; children; Tanzania
    Date: 2022–04
  39. By: Abbas Moosvi (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics)
    Abstract: According to the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement survey of 2018-19, approximately 51 percent of the population of Pakistan has successfully completed their primary level education – a figure that rose 2 percent from 2013-14. Balochistan was the worst performing province in this regard, with figures actually declining from 33 percent in 2013-14 to 31 percent in 2018-19—and the COVID-19 pandemic has likely caused further damage. Punjab, on the other hand, was the best performing, with a completion rate of just 57 percent—approximately 3 out of 5. Assuming that education and literacy are public goods, these statistics indicate a looming crisis for Pakistan: which has not managed to formulate a comprehensive strategy or framework around which children may become literate and empower themselves economically.
    Keywords: Primary School, Literacy, Child Initiative
    Date: 2022
  40. By: Natalia Bourova; Veronika Choubaeva; Jacques Fontanel (CESICE - Centre d'études sur la sécurité internationale et les coopérations européennes - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble)
    Abstract: In 2021, distance learning has become an essential instrument in the training of young pupils and students in a semi-confined pandemic world. At the end of the 20th century, Peter Drucker foresaw the end of professors, to make way for distance learning. This analysis did not have the expected results. In 2019, Jeremy Rifkin had himself considered that distance learning would abolish or profoundly transform the teaching profession, because the economies of scale it offered drastically reduced costs, while providing everyone with a common culture and knowledge. However, this conception had "perverse effects", both in terms of equal opportunities for citizens, the dangers of a conventional pedagogy and the progressive isolation of those being taught.
    Keywords: Economics of education,distance education,learning
    Date: 2021–10–10
  41. By: Precious P. Adeshina (Cambridge Resources International Inc.); Mikhail Miklyaev (Department of Economics, Queens University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada, K7L3N6 and Cambridge Resources International Inc.)
    Abstract: Public resources are finite and as such should be employed efficiently. There is an opportunity cost in the use of resources in one project over another. Hence, there is a need to ensure that resources are put to their best use given that the same resources can be allocated to alternative uses. Hence, this Road Projects Appraisal serves the purpose of scrutinizing proposed road projects to ensure that public expenditure in the development of road infrastructure in Zimbabwe leads to the achievement of development objectives and socio-economic growth. The road project appraisal manual (RPAM) provides step by step guidance on how to formulate, prepare and appraise proposed road projects.
    Keywords: Cost Benefit Analysis, Road, Public Investment, Zimbabwe
    JEL: D61 H54 O55 L92 R42
    Date: 2022–04–18
  42. By: Stephen Gibbons; Claudia Hupkau; Sandra McNally; Henry G. Overman
    Abstract: What can the UK government expect to get for its £1.5 billion investment in further education colleges? Claudia Hupkau and Sandra McNally investigate the benefits of capital projects in the sector and find that they help more students get a good qualification than previously thought.
    Keywords: schools, social mobility, education, further edcuation, uk, policy
    Date: 2022–02–22
  43. By: Abedullah (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics)
    Abstract: The term “smog” was used first time in 1950 and described it as combination of smoke and fog in London. Now it refers to a mixture of smoke (pollutants made up mostly of ground level ozone) and mist. Exhaust cloud is the dirty air contaminated with chemical emitting from different anthropogenic activities and it is characterised as the blend of the gasses with residue and water vapors. Air pollution has emerged as a serious environmental threat in the South Asia. According to WHO (2016), world’s top most 20 polluted cities are located in Asia, among them three are located in Pakistan. Since 2016, dense smog blankets the city of Lahore, the capital of Punjab during months of October to December is becoming a serious problem.
    Keywords: Private Cars, Public Transport, Smog, Air Pollution, Pakistan
    Date: 2022
  44. By: Lee, Wang-Sheng (Monash University); Tran, Trang My (Monash University); Yu, Lamont Bo (University of Macau)
    Abstract: We use high-frequency data from location-based mobile phone records to measure domestic air travel patterns of the Chinese population during the Covid-19 pandemic. The travel and tourism industry is a key driver of China's domestic economy and data from this industry helps serve as an objective proxy for domestic economic activity during the pandemic. Our results show that except for some periods of intense mobility restrictions, relative to travel patterns in 2019, mobility in fact increased in China from mid-2020 onwards. This increase in domestic air travel is likely due to a combination of factors: China's control and management of the Delta variant, China's new "dual circulation" development paradigm, and a pent-up demand for international travel that is not permitted.
    Keywords: China, COVID-19, dual circulation, mobile phone data, mobility
    JEL: C31 I12 I18 R11 R41
    Date: 2022–05
  45. By: Marchal, Léa; Ourens, Guzmán (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Sabbadini, Giulia
    Date: 2022
  46. By: Jérémy Hervelin (CY - CY Cergy Paris Université, THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CY - CY Cergy Paris Université); Pierre Villedieu (Sciences Po - Sciences Po, LIEPP - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire d'évaluation des politiques publiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)
    Abstract: This paper investigates whether work experience gained through a subsidized job program can improve the employment prospects of young school dropouts. Relying on a correspondence study field experiment conducted in France, we find that the chances to be invited for a job interview are more than doubled (from 7.6 percent to 19.3 percent) when youths signal a one-year job-related experience in their résumé - either in the private or public sector; either certified or not - compared to youths who remained mainly inactive after dropping out from high school. We show that this effect is fairly stable across firm, contract or labor market characteristics, and also when testing another channel of application where resumes were sent spontaneously to firms.
    Keywords: School dropouts,Work experience,Subsidized employment,Job Interview,Field experiment
    Date: 2022–03–24
  47. By: Agostino Consolo (European Central Bank); Filippos Petroulakis (Bank of Greece)
    Abstract: Recent research has argued that the COVID-19 shock has also brought about a real- location shock. We examine the evidence for such an occurrence in the United States, taking a broad perspective. We first consider micro data from CPS and JOLTS; there is no noticeable uptick in occupation or sector switches, nor churn, either at the aggregate level or the cross-section, or when broken down by firms’ size. We then examine whether mismatch unemployment has risen as a result of the pandemic; using an off-the-shelf multisector search and matching model, there is little evidence for an important role for mismatch in driving the elevated unemployment rate. Finally, we employ a novel Bayesian SVAR framework with sign restrictions to identify a reallocation shock; we find that it has played a relatively minor role in explaining labor market patterns in the pandemic, at least relative to its importance in earlier episodes.
    Keywords: Reallocation; COVID-19; mismatch
    JEL: E24 J63
    Date: 2022–03
  48. By: Brade, Raphael
    Abstract: Using randomized field experiments, I investigate the effectiveness of two social information interventions at increasing participation in a voluntary remedial math course for university students. In Intervention 1, incoming students receive invitation letters with information about the course sign-up rate in a previous semester. In Intervention 2, the students who signed up for the course receive reminder letters that include information on how helpful the course has been evaluated by previous students. On average, neither intervention increases participation in the course, but further analyses reveal that the effects of Intervention 1 are heterogeneous along two dimensions: First, by increasing the salience of the course, it raises attendance among students who enroll late in their study program, which in turn increases their first-year performance and closes the achievement gap to early enrollees. Second, the effect of the information about the past sign-up rate depends on the predicted ex-ante sign-up probability. Students for whom the prediction falls just short of the past sign-up rate increase sign-up and participation, while the opposite is true for students whose sign-up probability exceeds the social information. Along this dimension, however, the changes in attendance do not carry over to academic achievements.
    Keywords: Social Information; Higher Education; Randomized Field Experiment; Remedial Courses
    JEL: C93 D83 I21 I23
    Date: 2022–05–13
  49. By: Yuta Kuroda; Takaki Sato; Yasumasa Matsuda
    Abstract: We create a city-by-day-level mobility index for the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic from data on over 80 million mobile devices to analyze how social distancing compliance varies with social capital levels. We find that in the second year of the pandemic, both voluntary preventative activities and policy compliance were substantially reduced in areas with low levels of social capital but not in areas with high levels of social capital. Additionally, in Japan, mobility was clearly reduced among those supporting a majority party, and there is little heterogeneity by political preference as related to ideology or position. This suggests that valuing conformity with others is an important driver of behavior that is beneficial to the community.
    Date: 2022–05
  50. By: d'Agostino, Giorgio; Pieroni, Luca; Scarlato, Margherita
    Abstract: This paper estimates the returns of education on the first generation of immigrants in Italy and measures the education pay gap between immigrants and natives. The analysis, drawn on two comparable cross-sectional surveys conducted by the Italian Institute of Statistics in 2009, shows that an immigrant with a tertiary education degree has a 20% increase in hourly wage compared to immigrant workers with a postsecondary education degree. The absence of a legal recognition of the education degree does not produce any return to education for the immigrants. Relevant differences in educational returns are found between immigrants and natives, with an education wage gap of approximately 61%. These results shed new light on the two channels that may contribute to the wage gap between highly educated immigrants and natives in Italy. The first channel moves behind the heterogeneity of highly educated immigrants with respect to their education quality and comparability and on relevant differences in the formal process of recognition of the education degree. The second channel is linked to the job mismatch of the immigrant workforce.
    Keywords: Immigrant pay gap, High education, Overeducation
    JEL: J15 J24 J31
    Date: 2022

This nep-ure issue is ©2022 by Steve Ross. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.