|
on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Lei Dong; Paolo Santi; Yu Liu; Siqi Zheng; Carlo Ratti |
| Abstract: | Commuting is a key mechanism that governs the dynamics of cities. Despite its importance, very little is known of the properties and mechanisms underlying this crucial urban process. Here, we capitalize on $\sim$ 50 million individuals' smartphone data from 234 Chinese cities to show that urban commuting obeys remarkable regularities. These regularities can be generalized as two laws: (i) the scale-invariance of the average commuting distance across cities, which is a long-awaited validation of Marchetti's constant conjecture, and (ii) a universal inverted U-shape of the commuting distance as a function of the distance from the city centre within cities, indicating that the city centre's attraction is bounded. Motivated by such empirical findings, we develop a simple urban growth model that connects individual-level mobility choices with macroscopic urban spatial structure and faithfully explains both commuting laws. Our results further show that the scale-invariants of human mobility will ultimately lead to the polycentric transition in cities, which could be used to better inform urban development strategies. |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2204.12865&r= |
| By: | Song, Zisheng (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology); Wilhelmsson, Mats (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology); Zalejska-Jonsson, Agnieszka (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | The relationship between housing prices or rents with other economic factors has been widely analysed. However, few studies use cross-sectional data to analyse the relationship between owner-occupied and rental housing sectors. This paper aims to develop a cross-sectional rent-price model and estimate the interconnected relationship between different market segments. Based on the transactional data of owner-occupied and rental housing in 2015–2018 in Beijing, China, we empirically conduct analyses of cross-sectional rent-price interconnectivity in total housing markets and segments such as housing size and school district. As expected, we find a bi-directional relationship between prices and rents in Beijing that goes in both directions, indicating that housing of different tenures substitute each other, and substitutional effects are significantly different across submarkets. Condominium prices have a more significant impact on rents than vice versa. |
| Keywords: | rents; owner-occupied housing prices; housing subsectors’ relationship |
| JEL: | C21 C51 C52 R32 |
| Date: | 2022–05–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:kthrec:2022_003&r= |
| By: | Henry G. Overman |
| Abstract: | Economic prosperity is very unevenly distributed across space. What causes some places to be richer and some poorer? Why do these spatial disparities matter - and what can policy do to reduce them? Economists studying urban and spatial economics consider these questions across different countries, developed and developing, and at different spatial scales - cities and regions. The Insights series is an introduction to the work of the Centre for Economic Performance. While the centre's roots are in labour economics, it has been an interdisciplinary research centre, since it was set up in 1990. Each Insight explains how economists go about investigating the big questions in each topic, the contribution CEP researchers have made to both academic understanding and policy-making - and the questions that are still to be answered. |
| Keywords: | Economic geography, cities, regions, spatial disparities |
| Date: | 2021–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepins:04&r= |
| By: | Maria Zumbuehl (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Nihal Chehber (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Rik Dillingh (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis) |
| Abstract: | Tracking early in the school career can influence a student's further educational path significantly. We study the track advice at the end of primary school in the Netherlands, where teachers give a track advice based on a student's previous performance and their impression of the student's ability. If the student outperforms the initial advice in the subsequent nationwide test, the school reevaluates the student and can – but does not have to – update the final advice. We use cognitive and non-cognitive skills measurements that are collected three years before the tracking decision is made, linked with the teachers initial and revised advice, as well as background information from register data. We find that with equal skills, students from lower socio-economic backgrounds receive on average lower advice, while students with a migration background receive on average higher advice. A decomposition of the total difference in initial advice between students from high versus low educated parents shows that around 55% of the difference in advice can be explained by differences in cognitive and non-cognitive skills. Adding additional information about the family, school and place of residence, we can explain about 71% of the difference between students with low and high educated parents. We do not find a significant change in the gap in advice between children from different socio-economic backgrounds after the nationwide test and reevaluation procedure. |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J24 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpb:discus:439&r= |
| By: | Fil Kristensen, Iryna (HEC Montreal); Pugh, Rhiannon (CIRCLE, Lund University); Grillitsch, Markus (CIRCLE, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | t.b.d. |
| Keywords: | smart specialisation; change agency; regional development |
| JEL: | R58 |
| Date: | 2022–05–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2022_006&r= |
| By: | Fukushige, Tatsuya MS; Fitch, Dillon T. PhD; Mohiuddin, Hossain MS; Andersen, Hayden BS; Jenn, Alan PhD |
| Abstract: | While micromobility services (e.g., bikeshare, e-bike share, e-scooter share) hold great potential for providing clean travel, estimating the effects of those services on vehicle miles traveled and reducing greenhouse gases is challenging. To address some of the challenges, this study examined survey, micromobility, and transit data collected from 2017 to 2021 in approximately 20 U.S. cities. Micromobility fleet utilization ranged widely from 0.7 to 12 trips per vehicle per day, and the average trip distance was 0.8 to 3.6 miles. The median (range) rates at which micromobility trips substituted for other modes were 41% (16–71%) for car trips, 36% (5–48%) for walking, and 8% (2–35%) for transit, 5% (2–42%) for no trip. In most cities, the mean actual trip distance was approximately 1.5 to 2 times longer than the mean distance of a line connecting origin to destination. There was a weak and unclear connection between micromobility use and transit use that requires further study to more clearly delineate, but micromobility use had a stronger positive relationship to nearby rail use than to nearby bus use in cities with rail and bus service. The COVID-19 pandemic led to more moderate declines in docked than in dockless bike-share systems. Metrics that would enable better assessment of the impacts of micromobility are vehicle miles traveled and emissions of micromobility fleets and their service vehicles, and miles and percentage of micromobility trips that connect to transit or substitute for car trips. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Micromobility, sustainable transportation, public transit, travel behavior, mode choice, performance metrics, COVID-19 |
| Date: | 2022–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt2pk6t2cz&r= |
| By: | Antonio Ciccone; Jan Nimczik |
| Abstract: | After the end of World War II in 1945, millions of refugees arrived in what in 1949 became the Federal Republic of Germany. We examine their effect on today’s productivity, wages, income, rents, education, and population density at the municipality level. Our identification strategy is based on a spatial discontinuity in refugee settlement at the border between the French and US occupation zones in the South-West of post-war Germany. These occupation zones were established in 1945 and dissolved in 1949. The spatial discontinuity arose because the US zone admitted refugees during the 1945-1949 occupation period whereas the French zone restricted access. By 1950, refugee settlement had raised population density on the former US side of the 1945-1949 border significantly above density on the former French side. Before the war, there never had been significant differences in population density. The higher density on the former US side persists entirely in 2020 and coincides with higher rents as well as higher productivity, wages, and education levels. We examine whether today’s economic differences across the former border are the result of the difference in refugee admission; the legacy of other policy differences between the 1945-1949 occupation zones; or the consequence of socio-economic differences predating WWII. Taken together, our results indicate that today’s economic differences are the result of agglomeration effects triggered by the arrival of refugees in the former US zone. We estimate that exposure to the arrival of refugees raised income per capita by around 13% and hourly wages by around 10%. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9679&r= |
| By: | Myśliwski, Mateusz (Norwegian School of Economics); Rostom, May (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | We formulate a structural model of search with lender and borrower heterogeneity to estimate the value of information provided to UK households by mortgage brokers. Using administrative data on loans originating in 2016 and 2017, we document the existence of a substantial degree of unexplained price dispersion, and observe that while mortgages obtained from brokers are cheaper, borrowers who use intermediaries pay more once commissions are factored in. Assuming that borrowers with high search costs are more likely to use brokers, we nonparametrically estimate the distributions of search, and the banks’ costs of providing these loans. Our results show that search costs vary by demographic groups, and that broker presence exerts negative pressure on lenders’ market power. Compared to a world where broker advice is unavailable, we estimate their presence reduces average monthly mortgage costs by 21%, and welfare losses arising from search frictions by 70% – although the results differ by borrower and loan charateristics. We also find that regulation in support of market centralization halves lenders’ markups and lowers monthly costs of an average mortgage by 4.4%. |
| Keywords: | Mortgage markets; consumer search; intermediation; auction estimation |
| JEL: | C57 D83 G21 L85 |
| Date: | 2022–03–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0967&r= |
| By: | Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
| Abstract: | Almost all countries worldwide closed schools at the outbreak of the Covid-19 crisis. I document that schooling time dropped on average by -55% in the US and -45% in Germany from the onset of the crisis to the summer of 2021. In the US, schools were closed longer in richer than in poorer areas, while in Germany the regional variation is much smaller. However, Germany exhibited substantial variation by grade level, with a strong U-shaped patterns that implies that children attending middle school faced the longest closures. A structural model of human capital accumulation predicts that the US school closures on average lead to a reduction of life-time earnings of –1.7% for the affected children. While the overall losses are likely somewhat smaller in Germany, the socio-economic gradient in the losses could be larger than in the US, leading to increased inequality and decreased intergenerational mobility. |
| Keywords: | Covid school closures, long-term effects |
| JEL: | E24 H75 I21 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9698&r= |
| By: | Philipp Otto |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a multivariate spatiotemporal autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model based on a vec-representation. The model includes instantaneous spatial autoregressive spill-over effects in the conditional variance, as they are usually present in spatial econometric applications. Furthermore, spatial and temporal cross-variable effects are explicitly modelled. We transform the model to a multivariate spatiotemporal autoregressive model using a log-squared transformation and derive a consistent quasi-maximum-likelihood estimator (QMLE). For finite samples and different error distributions, the performance of the QMLE is analysed in a series of Monte-Carlo simulations. In addition, we illustrate the practical usage of the new model with a real-world example. We analyse the monthly real-estate price returns for three different property types in Berlin from 2002 to 2014. We find weak (instantaneous) spatial interactions, while the temporal autoregressive structure in the market risks is of higher importance. Interactions between the different property types only occur in the temporally lagged variables. Thus, we see mainly temporal volatility clusters and weak spatial volatility spill-overs. |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2204.12472&r= |
| By: | Nicolás González-Pampillón; Henry G. Overman |
| Abstract: | The UK government uses a Value for Money (VfM) framework to help allocate infrastructure expenditure. At the core of this framework is a benefit to cost ratio (BCR) that is calculated using a set of established monetised impacts and costs, according to Green Book guidance. As part of the debate around transport spending in the UK, it has been argued that these BCRs are biased towards London and the South East. We use a set of BCRs, compiled for the Eddington study, to consider the determinants of variation in BCRs and whether these differ systematically across UK regions. Our descriptive analysis controls for basic scheme characteristics and finds no strong evidence of significant regional differences. While the BCRs in Eddington form the basis for claims made in existing studies a larger set of schemes, evaluated according to current guidelines and including BCRs for unfunded schemes, would be needed to perform a more definitive analysis. |
| Keywords: | Transport appraisal, Value for Money, benefit to cost ratio, spatial disparities |
| JEL: | R40 R42 |
| Date: | 2020–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepops:53&r= |
| By: | Geoff Boeing; William Riggs |
| Abstract: | Planning scholars have identified economic, safety, and social benefits of converting one-way streets to two-way. Less is known about how conversions could impact vehicular distances traveled - of growing relevance in an era of fleet automation, electrification, and ride-hailing. We simulate such a conversion in San Francisco, California. We find that its current street network's average intra-city trip is about 1.7% longer than it would be with all two-way streets, corresponding to 27 million kilometers of annual surplus travel. As transportation technologies evolve, planners must consider different facets of network efficiency to align local policy and street design with sustainability and other societal goals. |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2204.10944&r= |
| By: | Diana Farrell; Lindsay E. Relihan; Marvin W. Ward Jr.; Chris W. Wheat |
| Abstract: | We document a number of striking features about the initial impact of the pandemic on local commerce across 16 US cities. There are two novel contributions from this analysis: exploration of neighborhood-level effects and shifts between offline and online purchasing channels. In our analysis we use approximately 450 million credit card transactions per month from a rolling sample of 11 million anonymized customers between October 2019 and March 2020. Across the16 cities we profile, consumers decreased spend on the set of goods and services we define as "local commerce" by 12.8% between March 2019 and March 2020. Growth in all 16 cities was negative. Consumers shifted a substantial share of local commerce spend online, such that year-over-year growth in online spend was small, but positive, at 1.5%. With respect to grocery and pharmacy purchases, online spend grew at least three times as fast as offline spend. Overall spend declines were uniform across neighborhoods of differing median household income, though lower-income neighborhoods experienced the highest proportion of extreme negative declines. We also find evidence that many low-income neighborhoods are increasing spend on online grocery slower than others, but increasing their use of online restaurants the fastest. Consumers in low-income neighborhoods also tend to live farther from the grocery stores at which they shop. Compared to their counterparts in higher-income neighborhoods, consumers in low-income neighborhoods have not been more likely to shop at grocery stores closer to where they live since the onset of the pandemic. |
| Date: | 2020–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepops:50&r= |
| By: | Laura Outhwaite (UCL Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities); Jake Anders (UCL Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities); Jo Van Herwegen (UCL Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities) |
| Abstract: | Early mathematics and reading are foundational skills for later academic and life outcomes. Despite their equal value to society, previous research finds reading skills exceeded those of mathematics in the first two years of primary school in the UK. The current study conducted a conceptual replication and extension of this finding using large-scale, longitudinal data from the Millennium Cohort Study. Within the same group of nearly 12,000 children, results showed at age 2-4 years, symbolic knowledge, which underpins mathematical development was stronger than alphabetic knowledge, a key component of reading development. However, following the introduction of formal schooling, reading attainment exceeded that of mathematics at 6-8 years. These findings have important implications for educational policy and practice, which currently places a greater focus on reading development, compared to mathematics. Directions for future research to enhance the scientific understanding of mathematical development that translates to effective mathematical interventions are discussed. |
| Keywords: | mathematics attainment; reading attainment; early primary; millennium cohort study |
| JEL: | I20 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucl:cepeow:22-06&r= |
| By: | Mhamed Ben Salah; Cédric Chambru; Maleke Fourati |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of exposure to colonial public primary education on contemporary education outcomes in Tunisia. We assemble a new data set on the location of schools with the number of pupils by origin, along with population data during the French protectorate (1881–1956). We match those with contemporary data on education at both district and individual level. We find that the exposure of local population to colonial public primary education has a long-lasting effect on educational outcomes, even when controlling for colonial investments in education. A one per cent increase in Tunisian enrolment rate in 1931 is associated with a 1.69 percentage points increase in literacy rate in 2014. Our results are driven by older generations, namely individuals who attended primary schools before the 1989/91 education reform. We suggest that the efforts undertaken by the Tunisian government after independence to promote schooling finally paid off after 40 years and overturned the effects of history. |
| Keywords: | Colonial investment, primary education, Tunisia |
| JEL: | D10 N37 N47 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:econwp:411&r= |
| By: | Ryan Defina (International Association of Deposit Insurers) |
| Abstract: | Geography plays a fundamental role in today’s interconnected world. Financial flows operate within a multitude of regulatory and supervisory parameters often heavily influenced by regional factors. While deposit insurance is one factor affecting these flows, it too has been influenced by regional factors, particularly in the past 20 years with the rapid growth and development of deposit insurance systems, and has undergone substantial changes as a result. Understanding geographic dynamics in deposit insurance design enables policy makers to better understand the impact of regional factors on the features of deposit insurance systems and vice versa. Correlation between deposit insurer features in neighbouring jurisdictions offers the potential to facilitate collaboration under the grounds of common history and institutional development, but also introduces many challenges to multiple and bilateral coordination. We explore these issues further and highlight considerations for deposit insurance research, training and more targeted technical assistance initiatives. This paper investigates the associations between the features of deposit insurance systems and geography using a relatively simple statistical approach, and quantified through analysis of data collected by IADI. The results focus on a cross-sectional analysis of 2019 Annual Survey results. An implicit assumption is made that relationships observed in 2019 data are broadly representative of the true underlying dynamics between variables of interest and geography, although further analysis incorporating a time dimension would provide clarity on this assumption. Results suggest that geography is an important factor to consider when exploring a range of deposit insurance data items. However, this effect does not play a role for all aspects of deposit insurance systems, and is subject to a number of caveats. In some instances, the age of deposit insurers (a proxy for maturity in system design and implementation) can influence more than the region as a whole. Moreover, sample sizes used are relatively small so this needs to be taken into account when reviewing the results. Future research directions in this area could seek to broaden the suite of data items considered; conduct a targeted follow-up to further unpack the economic, financial, legal and cultural dynamics driving both inter- and intra-regional variation; or explicitly consider temporal dynamics through appraising longitudinal panels of deposit insurance metrics. |
| Keywords: | deposit insurance, bank resolution |
| JEL: | G21 G33 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:awl:polbri:2&r= |
| By: | Damiano Pregaldini; Uschi Backes-Gellner |
| Abstract: | We investigate how the adjustment of middle-skilled workers to immigration depends on the specificity of their occupational skill bundles. We combine the 2002 opening of the Swiss labor market to EU workers with register data on the location and occupation of these workers. In comparison to previous studies, we find counterintuitive results: the sudden inflow of EU workers increased the employment of native middle-skilled workers with specific occupational skills and, at the same time, reduced their occupational mobility. These results can be explained by the inflow of EU workers reducing existing skill gaps and alleviating firms' capacity restrictions, thereby improving job-worker matches and reducing the need for occupational changes of native workers. |
| Keywords: | migration, cross-border workers, occupational skill specificity |
| JEL: | J15 J24 J62 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iso:educat:0193&r= |
| By: | Lambert, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Tax Increment Financing Districts (TIFs) have become important local government tools in the USA over the last several decades as ways to help bring public and/or private investment dollars into inner city areas and/or older neighborhoods which are deemed to need revitalization. Within the last 10 years, the concept has become popular in Canada, and it has been used as a component piece of enterprise zone programs in other nations. This paper evaluates one of the first Kentucky USA TIFs started around 20 years ago with a preeminent Kentucky horse racing track, Churchill Downs, as the target for investment spending. Some of the desired spinoff effects of such investment are to help bring jobs, investment, and general economic growth to an older and low-income neighborhood which surrounds the track. This paper finds mixed results regarding these outcomes for the area surrounding Churchill Downs. |
| Keywords: | Churchill Downs, Economic Development, Horse Racing, Sports, Tax Increment Financing Districts (TIFs) |
| JEL: | R11 R38 R58 |
| Date: | 2022–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:112950&r= |
| By: | Bhaskar Choudhuri (EM - emlyon business school); Praveen Ranjan Srivastava; Shivam Gupta (EM - emlyon business school); Ajay Kumar (EM - emlyon business school); Surajit Bag |
| Abstract: | Government of India's ‘Digital India' initiative intends to build robust digital ecosystem that fosters innovation & entrepreneurship enabling better citizen service & citizen empowerment. Digitization in India involves geo-demographic & socio-economic dependency, choice of smart technologies undergoing rapid innovation, strategic roll-out planning & flawless implementation as prerequisite of technology diffusion & benefit realization. This study identifies technical & non-technical determinants of smart digital framework roll out that can accelerate digital diffusion in urban public services in India. This study follows inductive exploratory method, combining grounded theory & text mining for primary data analysis. Study reveals digitization is an ecosystem of private & public enterprises and citizen participation, identifies integrated use analytics & IoT can enable connected smart city, whereas technology cost, digital literacy & sustainable innovation as non-technological determinant towards resilient urban digital infrastructure in India. |
| Date: | 2021–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03628404&r= |
| By: | Daniel I. García; Andrew D. Paciorek |
| Abstract: | This note updates our previous work on household formation and living arrangements from the summer of 2020. At that early stage in the pandemic, the data showed a dramatic decline in headship rates as millions of Americans changed their living arrangements, many by remaining with or moving back in with parents and older relatives. |
| Date: | 2022–05–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2022-05-06-1&r= |
| By: | Schmidt, James |
| Abstract: | Analysis: Loss rates for single family homes threatened by wildfires in nine Northern California fires in the 2015-2021 time period are analyzed. 26,915 homes are included in the study. 21,504 of those homes were destroyed (79.8%). Vegetation cover is estimated for the area within 25 meters and within 500 meters of each structure point by reclassifying a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) image derived from high resolution infrared aerial imagery. Weather parameters for the maximum loss day on each fire are taken from the nearest Remote Automatic Weather Station (RAWS). Logistic regression is used to estimate the probability of structure loss, considering weather variables, vegetation cover, and structure patterns. Results: Structure density, vegetation cover within 25 meters and within 500 meters of a structure point, maximum wind levels and maximum temperature levels are all positively related to structure loss. Homes in high structure density areas (i.e., more than 400 structures per km2 within a 200-meter distance) have a predicted loss rate 20% higher than homes in low structure density areas, most likely due to increases in structure-to-structure spread. 33% of the losses in high structure density areas can be attributed to structure density compared to 13% of losses in the low structure density areas. Conclusions: Although reductions in vegetation cover do decrease structure loss rates, even very large changes in vegetation cover would not be sufficient to reduce loss rates to low levels. With a reduction of 50% in the average vegetation cover levels in both the 25-meter and 500-meter zones, predicted loss rates for these fires would still be over 50% for low structure density areas and nearly 80% for high structure density areas. |
| Keywords: | Defensible space, structure loss, wildfire, WUI, fuel reduction, radiant heat, structure density, embers, flames, fire prevention, NDVI, Sierra Nevada, Bay Area, wind, Northern California, Camp Fire, Tubbs Fire, Butte Fire, Dixie Fire, Caldor Fire, LNU Complex Fire, Claremont-Bear Fire, Carr Fire |
| JEL: | Q20 Q23 Q5 Q54 |
| Date: | 2022–03–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:112191&r= |
| By: | Marchal, Léa; Ourens, Guzmán (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Sabbadini, Giulia |
| Keywords: | export; firm; Heterogeneity; immigrant workers; wage inequality |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:121ba291-7dcb-42bc-b9fb-2e8f7e7c6e2f&r= |
| By: | Merkel, Axel (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)); Lindgren, Samuel (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to provide empirical insights into how shipowners’ fleet deployment decisions are affected by changes in vessel-specific voyage costs. Voyage cost components which are fixed with respect to sailed distance, e.g., port charges or other infrastructure fees, may significantly influence the competitiveness of a maritime transport service, for instance if the level of such costs necessitate a very high degree of capacity utilization. We investigate empirically the effect of charges on the deployment and utilization of vessels in short-sea shipping by using the most recent reform of the Swedish fairway dues system as a natural experiment. Exploiting a stepwise differentiation of fees with respect to size, we utilize a regression discontinuity approach to elicit plausibly causal effects of increased fees on the deployment and utilization of vessels. The results show that increased voyage costs in the form of raised charges lead to affected vessels being deployed on fewer calls but with a slightly higher degree of capacity utilization. Heterogeneity analyses reveal estimates for port calls are larger for small shipowners and for vessels in high-frequency traffic. Overall, the results of the study highlight that charges levied on ships affect the supply structure of short-sea shipping by inducing shipowners to mitigate increased costs through adjusted deployment strategies. |
| Keywords: | Short-sea shipping; Capacity utilization; Fleet deployment; Regression discontinuity; Infrastructure pricing |
| JEL: | C36 R40 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2022–05–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vtiwps:2022_003&r= |
| By: | RADICS Miklos (European Commission - JRC); CHRISTIDIS Panayotis (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | This report presents the results of an analysis on mobility related consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and the applied restricting measures in Spain covering the period of March 1, 2020 – October 1, 2021. The analysis focuses on how the number of trips changed on national, autonomous community and provincial levels as well as on the potential causes behind the changes. Multiple open mobility data sources were used that describe the evolution of the number of trips published by the Spanish Ministry of Transport and tech companies. Results show that due to the unpredictable consequences of the coronavirus disease and strict governmental responses, the number of trips dropped drastically in all Spanish autonomous communities to 40-50 % compared pre-pandemic levels after the first state of alarm was introduced in March 2020. After hard lockdown was lifted, mobility levels gradually returned to 70-80% compared to the baseline level regardless of the number of coronavirus infections and deaths of the subsequent waves of infection that exceeded the first wave. The pandemic brought significant changes in the individual behaviour that also has an impact on trip demand and distribution. Although the second state of alarm ended in May 2021, and since then only minor restrictions influence mobility, after 1.5 years of pandemic public transport is still underperforming and teleworking levels are higher compared to the pre-pandemic situation in major Spanish cities. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19 |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc128451&r= |
| By: | Bruno Decreuse (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université); Steeve Mongrain (Simon Fraser University - Department of Computer Science - SFU.ca - Simon Fraser University); Tanguy Ypersele (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | Canada exhibits no correlation between income and victimization, rich neighborhoods are less exposed to property crime, rich households are more victimized than their neighbors, and rich households and neighborhoods invest more in protection. We provide a theory consistent with these facts. Criminals within city choose a neighborhood and pay a search cost to compare potential victims, whereas households invest in self‐protection. As criminals' return to search increases with neighborhood income, households in rich neighborhoods are likelier to enter a race to greater protection driving crim-inals toward poorer areas. A calibration reproduces the Canadian victimiza-tion and protection pattern by household/neighborhood income. |
| Keywords: | alarms,economics of crime,private protection,property crime,search frictions |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03620382&r= |
| By: | Jonathan Wadsworth |
| Abstract: | People move to a new country for many reasons. How do these individual stories of seeking fresh opportunities play out over time both for those arriving and for the communities they move into? Economists are particularly interested in how immigration affects wages, employment, housing and public services. The Insights series is an introduction to the work of the Centre for Economic Performance. While the centre's roots are in labour economics, it has been an interdisciplinary research centre, since it was set up in 1990. Each Insight explains how economists go about investigating the big questions in each topic, the contribution CEP researchers have made to both academic understanding and policy-making - and the questions that are still to be answered. |
| Keywords: | Immigration |
| Date: | 2021–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepins:03&r= |
| By: | Sameh Hallaq; Ayman Khalifah |
| Abstract: | The current study aims to investigate the impact of academic achievement on child labor. The study utilizes survey data collected from Palestinian children in West Bank schools who are in the primary grades (5th-9th). The results show that increasing a child's academic achievement is significantly associated with decreasing the probability that a child works for money in the following period. Our findings varied among children according to their gender, age, and parental academic background. Our analyses are subject to different specifications, including two-stage least squares (2SLS) to account for potential endogeneity. The results provide robust evidence about the linkage between school performance and child labor in the West Bank. Further, the study proposes an assessment of the child’s mental health problems by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) as a potential mechanism through which the child's achievement at school affects child labor. |
| Keywords: | Academic Achievement; Child Labor; West Bank |
| JEL: | D15 I21 J13 I12 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1007&r= |
| By: | Guido Friebel (Goethe University of Frankfurt, CEPR and IZA); Matthias Heinz (University of Cologne and CEPR); Mitchell Hoffman (University of Toronto Rotman School of Management and NBER); Nick Zubanov (University of Konstanz and IZA) |
| Abstract: | Employee referral programs (ERPs) are randomly introduced in a grocery chain. On direct effects, larger referral bonuses increase referral quantity but decrease quality, though the increase in referrals from ERPs is modest. However, the overall effect of having an ERP is substantial, reducing attrition by 15% and significantly decreasing labor costs. This occurs, partly, because referrals stay longer than non-referrals, but, mainly, from indirect effects: non-referrals stay longer in treated than in control stores. The most-supported mechanism for these indirect effects is workers value being involved in hiring. Attrition impacts are larger in higher-performing stores and better local labor markets. |
| Keywords: | Management practices; organizational economics; hiring; respect |
| JEL: | M51 M52 D23 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:164&r= |
| By: | Sandra McNally; Luis Schmidt; Anna Valero |
| Abstract: | Further Education colleges are a key way in which 16-19 year olds acquire skills in the UK (much like US Community Colleges), especially those from low income backgrounds. Yet, little is known about what could improve performance in these institutions. We design and conduct the world’s first management practices survey in these colleges (based on the World Management Survey) and match this to administrative longitudinal data on over 40,000 students. Value added regressions with rich controls suggest that structured management matters for educational outcomes (e.g. upper secondary qualifications), especially for students from low-income backgrounds. In a hypothetical scenario where a learner is moved from a college at the 10th percentile of management practices to the 90th, this would be associated with 8% higher probability of achieving a good high school qualification, which is nearly half of the educational gap between those from poor and non-poor backgrounds. Hence, improving management practices may be an important channel for reducing inequalities. |
| Keywords: | management practices, further education |
| JEL: | I20 J24 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9694&r= |
| By: | Ferrero, Andrea (University of Oxford); Harrison, Richard (Bank of England); Nelson, Benjamin (RCM) |
| Abstract: | The global financial crisis prompted the rapid development of macro-prudential frameworks and an increased reliance on borrower-based policy tools, which influence the demand for credit. This paper studies the optimal design of one such tool, a loan-to-value (LTV) limit, and its implications for monetary policy in a model with nominal rigidities and financial frictions. The welfare-based loss function features a role for macro-prudential policy to enhance risk-sharing. Optimal LTV limits are strongly countercyclical. In a house price boom-bust episode, the active use of LTV limits alleviates debt-deleveraging dynamics and prevents the economy from falling into a liquidity trap. |
| Keywords: | Monetary and macro-prudential policy; financial crisis; zero lower bound |
| JEL: | E52 E58 G01 G28 |
| Date: | 2022–03–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0969&r= |
| By: | Giorgio Tripodi; Francesco Lamperti; Roberto Mavilia; Andrea Mina; Francesca Chiaromonte; Fabrizio Lillo |
| Abstract: | Negative emissions technologies (NETs) feature prominently in most scenarios that halt climate change and deliver on the Paris Agreement's temperature goal. As of today, however, their maturity and desirability are highly debated. Since the social value of new technologies depends on how novel knowledge fuels practical solutions, we take an innovation network perspective to quantify the multidimensional nature of knowledge spillovers generated by twenty years of research in NETs. In particular, we evaluate the likelihood that scientific advances across eight NET domains stimulate (i) further production of knowledge, (ii) technological innovation, and (iii) policy discussion. Taking as counterfactual scientific advances not related to NETs, we show that NETs-related research generates overall significant, positive knowledge spillovers within science and from science to technology and policy. At the same time, stark differences exist across carbon removal solutions. For example, the ability to turn scientific advances in NETs into technological developments is a nearly exclusively feature of Direct Air Capture (DAC), while Bio-energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) lags behind. Conversely, BECCS and Blue Carbon (BC) have gained relative momentum in the policy and public debate, vis-Ã -vis limited spillovers from advances in DAC to policy. Moreover, both scientific advances and collaborations cluster geographically by type of NET, which might affect large-scale diffusion. Finally, our results suggest the existence of coordination gaps between NET-related science, technology, and policy. |
| Keywords: | Climate change mitigation; Negative emissions technologies; Carbon dioxide removal; Innovation; Knowledge spillovers; Data mining; Networks. |
| Date: | 2022–05–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2022/17&r= |
| By: | Simon Porcher (IAE Paris - Sorbonne Business School); Thomas Renault (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | We construct a novel database containing hundreds of thousands geotagged messages related to the COVID-19 pandemic sent on Twitter. We create a daily index of social distancing—at the state level—to capture social distancing beliefs by analyzing the number of tweets containing keywords such as "stay home", "stay safe", "wear mask", "wash hands" and "social distancing". We find that an increase in the Twitter index of social distancing on day t-1 is associated with a decrease in mobility on day t. We also find that state orders, an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases, precipitation and temperature contribute to reducing human mobility. Republican states are also less likely to enforce social distancing. Beliefs shared on social networks could both reveal the behavior of individuals and influence the behavior of others. Our findings suggest that policy makers can use geotagged Twitter data—in conjunction with mobility data—to better understand individual voluntary social distancing actions. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-03205158&r= |
| By: | Guldi, Melanie (University of Central Florida); Rahman, Ahmed S. (Lehigh University) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the causal impact of greater market access on demographic transition during the latter half of the 19th century in the United States. We construct new measures of fertility changes and measures of railroad access at the county level from 1850 – 1890. We are able to document market-access-induced changes in fertility due to both extensive margins (shifts in occupations with different average fertility rates) and intensive margins (changes in fertility within each occupation class). Both our theoretical model and empirical results suggest that declining fertility in counties mainly occurred through extensive margins. We further discover that fertility changes occurred mainly through strengthening patterns of specialization, rather than through greater industrialization or urbanization, suggesting that demographics diverged within the United States during this period. |
| Keywords: | demographic transition, market access, railroads, fertility, agricultural production, manufacturing production |
| JEL: | J11 J13 N11 N31 |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15215&r= |
| By: | Van Phan; Carl Singleton; Alex Bryson; John Forth; Felix Ritchie; Lucy Stokes; Damian Whittard |
| Abstract: | Ethnicity wage gaps in Great Britain are large and have persisted over time. Previous studies of these gaps have been almost exclusively confined to analyses of household data, so they could not account for the role played by individual employers, despite growing evidence of their wage-setting power. We study ethnicity wage gaps using high quality employer-employee payroll data on jobs, hours, and earnings, linked with the personal and family characteristics of workers from the national census for England and Wales. We show that firm-specific wage effects account for sizeable parts of the estimated differences between the wages of white and ethnic minority workers at the mean and other points in the wage distribution, which would otherwise mostly have been attributed to differences in individual worker attributes, such as education levels, occupations, and locations. Nevertheless, there are substantial gaps between the wage structures of white and ethnic minority employees which cannot be accounted for by who people work for or other attributes, especially among higher earners. |
| Keywords: | Employer-Employee Data, Unconditional Quantile Regression, Decomposition Methods, UK Labour Market |
| JEL: | J31 J7 J71 |
| Date: | 2022–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qss:dqsswp:2203&r= |
| By: | Orea, Luis; José A. Pérez-Méndez; Álvarez, Inmaculada C. |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the impact of the land consolidation (LC) processes that have taken place in Asturias over recent decades. These processes received European funding given that their purpose is to improve the economic activity in rural areas. As many parishes have been involved in two or more LC processes, we use a Difference-in-Difference (DiD) approach with heterogeneous treatment timings to examine the temporal evolution of parishes’ livestock production and farms. To our best knowledge, a similar DiD model has not been estimated as yet in the literature. We examine whether LC helps to reverse rural depopulation in Asturias. We find that parishes’ livestock production increases about 3% on average once one or more LC processes have been implemented, and that the LC processes have especially attenuated the decline in the number of farms in (coastal) parishes where dairy farms predominate. We do not find strong evidence regarding the effectiveness of the LC processes in securing the level of rural population, except in some of the parishes located in western Asturias. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oeg:wpaper:2021/05&r= |
| By: | G.K., Chetan Kumar; K.B., Rangappa |
| Abstract: | Indigenization is a very broad concept. It can have various permutations and manifestations. In our present descriptive analysis, we are going to analyze indigenization through the prism of education and inculcation of values. It is to be noted that, the structure of education system in India is based on the foundations laid in colonial times. Since no radical reform has taken place in the same, it is pertinent for academia to look at the efficacy of the present educational system in meeting the needs and aspirations of present generations in particular and society at large. In addition to that, in the backdrop of leveraging demographic dividend, provides another important reason for academia to probe how relevant the western mode of education is to multilayered, multi-cultural, multilingual Indian society which has no dearth of indigenous Education system to dwell upon. Our paper, in no way criticizes western mode of education, on the other hand we try to analyze out, how relevant archaic colonial structure of education is to meet the needs and demands of Indian Society and how revamping the same can build the strategic capability of our nation. |
| Keywords: | Indigenization, Colonial structure of Education, Demographic Dividend, Value System, Society, Strategic capability |
| JEL: | I2 I21 I25 I28 |
| Date: | 2022–02–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:112892&r= |
| By: | Cristiana Fiorelli; Nicola Pontarollo; Carolina Serpieri |
| Abstract: | From 1989 until 2018, almost 600 Italian municipalities experienced financial distress. The aim of the present study is i) to investigate the historical and geographical evolution of this bankruptcy procedure over thirty years; ii) to test if the exogenous Italian legislation on local administration defaults was influencing the dynamics of the local financial distress phenomenon by identifying three different regulatory regimes; iii) to understand whether those legislative interventions were more likely to be designed as a rectification procedure with immediate effects rather than a structural reform tool with delayed but potentially more foresight-informed policy consequences. Our results show that the regulatory regime until 2001 which had foreseen the government bail-out of the local defaults encouraged municipalities to use the bankruptcy procedures, unlike from 2002 when the legislative interventions have been updated there is no longer any incentive. Moreover, the distribution of local financial distresses has a strong geographical dimension and confirms the North-South divide. Finally, they had mainly a rectification effect on the short term which determined that the phenomenon of local defaults still requires to be fully addressed and regulated with several bureaucracy and opportunity costs. |
| Keywords: | financial distress; local authorities; Italy |
| JEL: | H63 H77 H81 R11 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp219&r= |
| By: | Balazs Egert; Christine de la Maisonneuve; David Turner |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a new measure of human capital using PISA and PIAAC surveys, and mean years of schooling. The new measure is a cohort-weighted average of past PISA scores (representing the quality of education) of the working age population and the corresponding mean years of schooling (representing the quantity of education). In contrast to the existing literature, the relative weights of each component are not imposed or calibrated but directly estimated. The paper finds that the elasticity of the stock of human capital with respect to the quality of education is three to four times larger than for the quantity of education. The new measure has a strong link to productivity with the potential for productivity gains being much greater from improvements in the quality than quantity component of human capital. The magnitude of these potential gains in MFP is considerable but the effects materialise with long lags. The paper simulates the impact of a particular reform to education policy (pre-primary education) on human capital and productivity to demonstrate the usefulness of the new measure for policy analysis. |
| Keywords: | human capital, PISA, PIAAC, mean years of schooling, education policies, productivity, OECD countries |
| JEL: | E24 I20 I25 I26 I28 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9728&r= |
| By: | Bulaon, June Patrick; Shoji, Masahiro |
| Abstract: | The relevance of non-cognitive skill to individuals’ socio-economic outcomes has become a crucial point of interest. The literature suggests that those who possess growth mindsets—the belief that intelligence and ability can be developed—are more likely to succeed academically and respond better to adversity and social exclusion. However, how these beliefs or mindsets are formed are scarcely explored. Exploiting exogenous variations in the timing and path of tropical cyclones in the Philippines, this study examines the persistent effects of experiencing natural disasters in childhood on adult growth mindset. Results reveal that exposure to more tropical cyclones during in utero and infancy leads adults to believe that intelligence and ability are fixed and cannot be developed. We also provide evidence that this effect is mediated by poor childhood nutrition and health. Such findings point to the significance of prioritizing infant and maternal care in disaster and climate policy. |
| Keywords: | implicit theories of intelligence; growth mindset; fetal origins hypothesis; tropical cyclones; climate change |
| JEL: | I25 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:112913&r= |
| By: | Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Edeh, Hyacinth; Andam, Kwaw S. |
| Abstract: | Knowledge gaps remain as to how longer-term public investments (PI) such as agricultural research and development (R&D), and short-term interventions through other public expenditures in agriculture (PEA) complement each other in enhancing productivity and efficiency in the agrifood sector. This study attempts to partly fill this gap by using nationally representative panel household survey data, subnational PEA data, locations of national agricultural R&D, and various spatial agroclimatic data in Nigeria. The analyses generally indicate that marginal returns to agricultural inputs/services (fertilizer, agricultural mechanization, irrigation, extension, agricultural equipment, and family labor) often increase by PI that raise overall agroclimatic similarity (AS) (through R&D locations), as well as increase PEA-share by subnational governments. There is often complementarity between these PI and PEA, particularly for extension services, investment in agricultural equipment, irrigation, and in the northern part of the country. Promoting further adoptions of modern inputs/services, increasing PEA-share, and selecting PI for agricultural R&D given in-country variations in agroclimatic conditions can help raise agricultural profitability and incomes in Nigeria. |
| Keywords: | NIGERIA; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; public expenditure; public investment; farm inputs; services; productivity; mechanization; fertilizers; agricultural productivity; research; agricultural services; stratified difference-in-difference propensity-score matching |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2114&r= |
| By: | Mika Akesaka; Nobuyoshi Kikuchi |
| Abstract: | We examine the effects of local labor market conditions during early pregnancy on birth and later outcomes. Using a longitudinal survey of newborns in Japan, we find that improvements in employment opportunities increase the probability of low birth weight, attributable to shortened gestation. This negative effect is mainly driven by the impact of economic shocks on the female labor market. However, we do not find a lasting effect of economic shocks during early pregnancy on severe health conditions or developmental delays in early childhood. Using prefecture-level panel data, we confirm that improvements in female employment opportunities are significantly negatively associated with infant birth weight, but not with the fertility and infant mortality rate. |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1153r&r= |
| By: | Hongyi Chen (Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research); Peter Tillmann (University of Giessen) |
| Abstract: | Lockdowns imposed to fight the Covid-19 pandemic have cross-border effects. In this paper, we estimate the empirical magnitude of lockdown spillovers in a set of panel local projections. We use daily indicators of economic activity such as stock returns, effective exchange rates, NO2 emissions, mobility and maritime container trade. Lockdown shocks originating in the most important trading partners have a strong and significant adverse effect on economic activity in the home economy. For stock prices and exports, the spillovers can even be larger than the effect of domestic lockdown shocks. The results are robust with respect to alternative country weights used to construct foreign shocks, i.e. weights based on foreign direct investment or the connectedness through value chains. We find that lockdown spillovers have been particularly strong during the first wave of the pandemic. Countries with a higher export share are particularly exposed to lockdown spillovers. |
| Keywords: | panel local projections, lockdown shocks, spillovers, Covid-19, pandemic |
| JEL: | E32 F14 F20 F36 F42 F44 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:202215&r= |
| By: | Luca Braghieri; Ro'ee Levy; Alexey Makarin |
| Abstract: | The diffusion of social media coincided with a worsening of mental health conditions among adolescents and young adults in the United States, giving rise to speculation that social media might be detrimental to mental health. In this paper, we provide quasi-experimental estimates of the impact of social media on mental health by leveraging a unique natural experiment: the staggered introduction of Facebook across U.S. colleges. Our analysis couples data on student mental health around the years of Facebook’s expansion with a generalized difference-in-differences empirical strategy. We find that the roll-out of Facebook at a college increased symptoms of poor mental health, especially depression. We also find that, among students predicted to be most susceptible to mental illness, the introduction of Facebook led to increased utilization of mental healthcare services. Lastly, we find that, after the introduction of Facebook, students were more likely to report experiencing impairments to academic performance resulting from poor mental health. Additional evidence on mechanisms suggests that the results are due to Facebook fostering unfavorable social comparisons. |
| JEL: | D12 D72 D90 I10 L82 L86 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9723&r= |
| By: | Feld, Lars P.; Köhler, Ekkehard A.; Palhuca, Leonardo; Schaltegger, Christoph A. |
| Abstract: | Previous empirical studies suggest that decentralization, measured by the number of government layers, is associated with less foreign direct investment (FDI). With an improved dataset on tax autonomy of sub-federal government tiers, we present evidence that fiscal decentralization (de facto) does not reduce FDI. If local governments can set their tax rates and bases independently, they attract more FDI. Analyzing 83,458 corporate cross-border acquisitions (CBA), between 148 source and 187 host countries from 1997 to 2014, we also find that takeovers between two countries increase with size, cultural similarities and common borders of two economies. Shared institutions such as membership in a customs union facilitate CBA. These results apply for high-income hosts but not for middle-income countries. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Decentralization,Cross-Border Acquisition (CBA),Foreign Direct Investment (FDI),Tax Autonomy |
| JEL: | G34 H25 H71 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:aluord:2204&r= |
| By: | Mathias Hoffmann; Iryna Stewen; Michael Stiefel |
| Abstract: | Using a firm-bank panel of more than 1m German firms over 2010-2016, we document that local public bank lending to municipalities crowds out private investment. Our results show how crowding out can happen in a developed economy characterized by low interest rates and fiscal austerity. Our mechanism relies on two structural features of Germany’s banking landscape: First, the geographical segmentation of credit markets for small and medium firms (SME) which are dominated by local banks. Second, a special statutory mandate requiring local public banks to lend to municipalities. With yields on local government debt declining to all-time lows, local public banks tried to alleviate stress on their balance sheets by using their local market power to charge higher rates on their SME customers. This crowded out firm investment. Perversely, fiscal consolidation at the state and federal levels contributed to this effect by putting pressure on the budgets of municipal governments which increasingly borrowed from local public banks. Crowding out lowered aggregate private investment by around 30-40 bio euros per year (or 1 percent of GDP). Thus, we identify a novel channel through which low interest rates can adversely affect bank lending and firm performance. Our results also illustrate how segmented credit markets can amplify negative multiplier effects from fiscal austerity. |
| Keywords: | local public finance, firm-level investment, crowding-out, fiscal austerity, global and intra-European imbalances |
| JEL: | E22 E40 E62 G21 G28 F21 F32 H32 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9496&r= |
| By: | Arup Mitra; Puneet Kumar Shrivastav; Guru Prakash Singh (Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi) |
| Abstract: | This study aims at capturing the labour market volatility which is conceptualized in terms of the lack of sustainable sources of livelihood round the year. Though we are not able to identify the number of times workers change their jobs, the change in the job status which cannot occur unless the job changes, unravel important findings as retrieved from the quarterly repeated surveys of the same households. Two sets of multinomial logit model, representing labour market outcomes and the number of times of change in the type of employment (job status), and the wage function estimated after overcoming the endogeneity bias, bring out the susceptibility of the lower castes, illiterates and those belonging to the large households. The urban informal economy is subjected to income volatility which is connected to employment instability. In fact, the anomalies of the informal economy are not confined to meagre earnings only; the fluctuations reflect greater vulnerability. |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:awe:wpaper:416&r= |
| By: | Christopher Blattman (Department of Political Science, University of Chicago); Sebastian Chaskel (Instiglio); Julian C. Jamison (Department of Economics, University of Exeter); Margaret Sheridan (Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, University of North Carolina) |
| Abstract: | In most societies, a small number of people commit most of the serious crimes and violence. Short-term studies have shown that cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) can reduce such antisocial behaviors. There are some signs that these behavior changes may be temporary, however, especially from therapy on its own. This is unsettled, however, for there has been little randomized and long-term research on the question. We follow 999 high-risk men in Liberia 10 years after randomization into one of four arms: 8 weeks of a low-cost therapy; a $200 cash grant; both therapy and cash; or a control group. Together, the two interventions cost just $530 to deliver. We find that, a decade later, both therapy alone and therapy with economic assistance produce dramatic reductions in antisocial behaviors. Reported drug-selling and participation in thefts and robberies, for example, fall by about half. These impacts are greatest among the very highest-risk men. The effects of therapy alone, however, are somewhat smaller and more fragile. The effects of therapy plus economic assistance are more sustained and precise. Since the cash did not increase earnings for more than a few months after the grants, we hypothesize that the grant, and those few months of legitimate business activity, reinforced the learning-by-doing and habit formation embodied in CBT. Overall, the results suggest that highly-targeted CBT plus economic assistance could be an inexpensive and effective way to prevent violence, especially when policymakers are searching for alternatives to aggressive policing and incarceration. |
| Keywords: | cognitive behavior therapy, cash transfers, crime, violence, mental health, Africa, field experiments |
| JEL: | K42 O15 O17 D83 |
| Date: | 2022–05–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exe:wpaper:2203&r= |