nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2022‒05‒16
57 papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Changes in the geography housing demand after the onset of COVID-19: First results from large metropolitan areas in 13 OECD countries By Rudiger Ahrend; Manuel Bétin; Maria Paula Caldas; Boris Cournède; Marcos Diaz Ramirez; Pierre-Alain Pionnier; Daniel Sanchez-Serra; Paolo Veneri; Volker Ziemann
  2. About the importance of planning the location of recycling stations in the urban context By Wilhelmsson, Mats
  3. Local inequality and crime: New evidence from South Africa By Büttner, Nicolas
  4. An Equilibrium Analysis of the Effects of Neighborhood-based Interventions on Children By Eric Chyn; Diego Daruich
  5. Teacher Labor Market Equilibrium and Student Achievement By Michael Bates; Michael Dinerstein; Andrew C. Johnston; Isaac Sorkin
  6. Agglomeration Economies and Rural to Urban Migration: A District Level Study Based on 2011 Census Data By Arup Mitra; Rajesh Raushan
  7. School Indiscipline and Crime By Tony Beatton; Michael P. Kidd; Matteo Sandi
  8. The Social Integration of International Migrants: Evidence from the Networks of Syrians in Germany By Michael Bailey; Drew M. Johnston; Martin Koenen; Theresa Kuchler; Dominic Russel; Johannes Stroebel
  9. Urbanization in Industrialized Countries: Appearances Are Deceptive By Ludwig von Auer; Mark Trede
  10. Environmental Gentrification By Wen Wang
  11. Shedding light on unnoticed gems in India: Small towns’ development perspective By Arup Mitra; Sabyasachi Tripathi
  12. Becoming neighbors with refugees and voting for the far-right? The impact of refugee inflows at the small-scale level By Fremerey, Melinda; Hörnig, Lukas; Schaffner, Sandra
  13. The monthly rhythms of aviation: A global analysis of passenger air service seasonality By Frédéric Dobruszkes; Jean-Michel Decroly; Pere Suau-Sanchez
  14. From The Uneven De-Diversification Of Local Financial Resources To Planning Policies: The Residentialization Hypothesis By Antoine Grandclement; Guilhem Boulay
  15. Mountains of Evidence: The Effects of Abnormal Air Pollution on Crime By Birzhan Batkeyev; David R. DeRemer
  16. Urban Resilience and its Impact on Electricity Provision in Karachi, Islamabad and Peshawar By Afia Malik; Idrees Khawaja
  17. Do Second Chances Pay Off? Evidence from a Natural Experiment with Low-Achieving Students By Aspasia Bizopoulou; Rigissa Megalokonomou; Stefania Simion
  18. The Impact of Forced Migration on In-Group and Out-Group Social Capital By Anselm Hager; Justin Mattias Valasek; Justin Mattias Valasek
  19. The Long Run Impacts of Court-Ordered Desegregation By Garrett Anstreicher; Jason Fletcher; Owen Thompson
  20. Consumer Bankruptcy, Mortgage Default and Labor Supply By Wenli Li; Costas Meghir; Florian Oswald
  21. Abundance from Abroad: Migrant Income and Long-Run Economic Development By Gaurav Khanna; Emir Murathanoglu; Caroline B. Theoharides; Dean Yang
  22. Moving past sustainable transport studies: Towards a critical perspective on urban transport By Wojciech Keblowski; Frédéric Dobruszkes; Kobe Boussauw
  23. The Anatomy of U.S. Sick Leave Schemes: Evidence from Public School Teachers By Christopher J. Cronin; Matthew C. Harris; Nicolas R. Ziebarth
  24. The Education-Innovation Gap By Barbara Biasi; Song Ma
  25. Dismantling the 'Jungle' : Relocation and Extreme Voting in France By Paul Vertier; Max Viskanic; Matteo Gamalerio
  26. Social justice and sustainable regional development: reflections on discourse and practice in public policies and public budget By Vitor Vieira Vasconcelos
  27. Human-Algorithm Interactions: Evidence from By Runshan Fu; Ginger Zhe Jin; Meng Liu
  28. How to Evaluate and Minimize the Risk of COVID-19 Transmission within Public Transportation Systems By Huang, Yiduo MSc; Shen, Zuo-Jun PhD
  29. Economic crisis accelerates urban structural change via inter-sectoral labour mobility By STRAULINO Daniel; DIODATO Dario; O'CLERY Neave
  30. Assessing the Effects of Borrower-Based Macroprudential Policy on Credit in the EU Using Intensity-Based Indices By Lara Coulier; Selien De Schryder
  31. Technology and Local State Capacity: Evidence from Ghana By James Dzansi; Anders Jensen; David Lagakos; Henry Telli
  32. Mobility at the Lower Echelons? Evidence Based on Slum Household Panel Data from a Dynamic Indian City By Arup Mitra; Yuko Tsujita
  33. The medium-term impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions. The case of the 1918 influenza in US cities By Guillaume Chapelle
  34. Integration of Technological and Social Components in a Smart Urban Development Model: A Case Study of China By Heshmati, Almas; Koohborfardhaghighi, Somayeh; Summers, Christopher R.
  35. Subnational Regional Growth, Debt Thresholds and Sustainability By Alfonso Mendoza-Velazquez; Heidi J. Smith; Diego Mendoza-Martinez
  36. State Capacity, National Economic Policies and Local Development: The Russian State in the Southern Urals By Gerda Asmus; Raphaël Franck
  37. Educational Inequality By Jo Blanden; Matthias Doepke; Jan Stuhler
  38. “Earthquake exposure and schooling: impacts and mechanisms” By Khalifany-Ash Shidiqi; Antonio Di Paolo; Álvaro Choi
  39. Heterogeneity in Place Effects on Health: The Case of Time Preferences and Adolescent Obesity By Ashlesha Datar; Nancy Nicosia; Anya Samek
  40. The Power of Certainty: Experimental Evidence on the Effective Design of Free Tuition Programs By Elizabeth Burland; Susan Dynarski; Katherine Michelmore; Stephanie Owen; Shwetha Raghuraman
  41. How Might Adjustments to Public Transit Operations Affect COVID-19 Transmission? By Huan, Yiduo MSc; Shen, Zuojun Max PhD
  42. Human capital and labour market resilience over time: a regional perspective of the Portuguese case By Marta Cristina Nunes Simões; João Alberto Sousa Andrade; Maria Adelaide Pedrosa Silva Duarte
  43. The spillover effect of neighboring port on regional industrial diversification and regional economic resilience By Jung-In Yeon; Sojung Hwang; Bogang Jun
  44. Is There a Foster Care-To-Prison Pipeline? Evidence from Quasi-Randomly Assigned Investigators By E. Jason Baron; Max Gross
  45. Ethnic Enclaves and Cultural Assimilation By Achard, Pascal
  46. Family Finances and Debt Overhang: Evolving Consumption Patterns of Spanish Households By Sala, Hector; Trivín, Pedro
  47. Natural Disasters and Economic Dynamics: Evidence from the Kerala Floods. By Beyer, Robert C. M.; Narayanan, Abhinav; Thakur, Gogol Mitra
  48. What Drives Mortgage Default Risk in Europe and the U.S.? By Mr. Thierry Tressel; Eugen Tereanu; Mr. Marco Gross; Xiaodan Ding
  49. The 2020 Census Disclosure Avoidance System TopDown Algorithm By John M. Abowd; Robert Ashmead; Ryan Cumings-Menon; Simson Garfinkel; Micah Heineck; Christine Heiss; Robert Johns; Daniel Kifer; Philip Leclerc; Ashwin Machanavajjhala; Brett Moran; William Sexton; Matthew Spence; Pavel Zhuravlev
  50. Comparative analysis of the views and attitudes of elementary and secondary school pupils from the Czech Republic and Slovak Republic on the division of the Czech and Slovak Federative Republic (ČSFR) By Marcel Lincényi; Matej Mindár
  51. Labour Market Concentration, Wages and Job Security in Europe By Bassanini, Andrea; Bovini, Giulia; Caroli, Eve; Ferrando, Jorge Casanova; Cingano, Federico; Falco, Paolo; Felgueroso, Florentino; Jansen, Marcel; Martins, Pedro S.; Melo, António; Oberfichtner, Michael; Popp, Martin
  52. In the Grip of Whitehall? The Effects of Party Control on Local Fiscal Policy in the UK By Lockwood, Ben; Francesco Porcelli; James Rockey
  53. Public School Access or Stay-at-Home Partner: Factors Mitigating the Adverse Effects of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Academic Parents By Tatyana Deryugina; Olga Shurchkov; Jenna Stearns
  54. Financial Access and Gender Gap in Entrepreneurship and Employment: Evidence from Rural India By Sandhya Garg; Samarth Gupta
  55. Guns, Privacy, and Crime By Alessandro Acquisti; Catherine Tucker
  56. Increasing the Demand for Workers with a Criminal Record By Zoe B. Cullen; Will S. Dobbie; Mitchell Hoffman
  57. Air Pollution and the Labor Market: Evidence from Wildfire Smoke By Mark Borgschulte; David Molitor; Eric Zou

  1. By: Rudiger Ahrend; Manuel Bétin; Maria Paula Caldas; Boris Cournède; Marcos Diaz Ramirez; Pierre-Alain Pionnier; Daniel Sanchez-Serra; Paolo Veneri; Volker Ziemann
    Abstract: The paper introduces a novel, granular house-price dataset sourced from a network of public and private data providers. It offers the first results of investigations into changes in the urban geography of housing markets following the COVID-19 pandemic. The rapid rise of working from home practices is likely to incentivise many people to seek more space and accept living further away from city centres as commuting requirements are reduced. The paper's results indicate that housing demand might have indeed shifted away from the centres to the peripheries of many large urban areas. These early results also show that such a shift has been neither universal nor uniform. It is typically stronger in cities where pre-COVID-19 house price disparities were larger and where moving to the periphery provides significantly better access to green space while still allowing easy access to high-speed internet and/or where COVID-19 restrictions were more stringent. The paper concludes by discussing implications for policy, including the benefits of flexible settings that allow supply to adjust smoothly to new demand patterns and outlining avenues for future work planned to improve and capitalise on the new dataset.
    Keywords: COVID-19, digitisation, geospatial economics, housing, teleworking, working from home
    JEL: R31 O18
    Date: 2022–05–03
  2. By: Wilhelmsson, Mats (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: Recycling is essential to the circular economy and reduces our consumption's impact on the environment. Creating conditions for recycling in new residential areas is relatively easy, but finding good recycling opportunities in existing residential areas is more complicated. The recycling of newspapers, plastic and glass must be relatively close to where people live; at the same time, the locations must be relatively discreet and not disturb the residents in the area. The purpose of the article is to analyse the effect of small and local recycling stations (RCS) on the attractiveness of residential areas. This has been made possible by analysing housing values for almost 200,000 housing units near 250 RCS in Stockholm, Sweden. Using an identification strategy that relies on postal code fixed effects, we find evidence that the proximity to RCS affect housing prices on average in both owner-occupied single-family houses and cooperative owner-occupied apartments (condominiums). The results indicate that proximity to the RCS is negatively capitalised in housing values, which indicates that the city should consider this in its planning.
    Keywords: recycling; housing values; capitalisation
    JEL: C21 Q51 R30
    Date: 2022–04–24
  3. By: Büttner, Nicolas
    Abstract: The relationship between inequality and crime has been of long-standing interest to social scientists of various disciplines. While theorical work from both economics and sociology postulates a positive link between the two, the empirical evidence is rather inconclusive and typically focuses on higher-income countries. In this study, I investigate the relationship between socio-economic inequalities of various dimensions and both violent and property crime at the local level in South Africa. For this, I created a novel panel dataset of police precincts that combines official crime records from the South African Police Service with socio-economic data from two population censuses and household surveys. For identification, I exploit the variation of inequality and crime across time and space, while controlling for socio-economic and demographic characteristics of police precincts, provincespecific time trends, police cluster-fixed effects, and the spatial correlation of crime. I find strong and robust evidence for a significant, positive and linear relationship between income inequality within police precincts and local rates of violent crime and an inverted u-shaped relationship with property crime. Education inequality is more strongly related to violent crime, while housing inequality is only associated with property crime. In turn, cultural heterogeneity is positively correlated with all analyzed crimes. I also find suggestive evidence that inter-racial inequality contributes more to property crime, while intra-racial inequality contributes more to violent crime. Lastly, the results indicate that precincts which are relatively rich as compared to their neighbors suffer from higher rates of vehicle theft and aggravated robbery.
    Keywords: Crime,Local inequality,Small Area Estimation,South Africa
    JEL: D31 D74 O12
    Date: 2022
  4. By: Eric Chyn; Diego Daruich
    Abstract: To study the effects of neighborhood and place-based interventions, this paper incorporates neighborhood effects into a general equilibrium (GE) heterogeneous-agent overlapping-generations model with endogenous location choice and child skill development. Importantly, housing costs as well as neighborhood effects are endogenously determined in equilibrium. Having calibrated the model based on U.S. data, we use simulations to show that predictions from the model match reduced form evidence from experimental and quasi-experimental studies of housing mobility and urban development programs. After this validation exercise, we study the long-run and large-scale impacts of vouchers and place-based subsidies. Both policies result in welfare gains by reducing inequality and generating improvements in average skills and productivity, all of which offset higher levels of taxes and other GE effects. We find that a voucher program generates larger long-run welfare gains relative to place-based policies. Our analysis of transition dynamics, however, suggests there may be more political support for place-based policies.
    JEL: H53 I31 J13 R13 R23
    Date: 2022–04
  5. By: Michael Bates; Michael Dinerstein; Andrew C. Johnston; Isaac Sorkin
    Abstract: We study whether reallocating existing teachers across schools within a district can increase student achievement, and what policies would help achieve these gains. Using a model of multidimensional value-added, we find meaningful achievement gains from reallocating teachers within a district. Using an estimated equilibrium model of the teacher labor market, we find that achieving most of these gains requires directly affecting teachers’ preferences over schools. In contrast, directly affecting principals’ selection of teachers can lower student achievement. Our analysis highlights the importance of equilibrium and second-best reasoning in analysing teacher labor market policies.
    Keywords: teachers, public sector labor markets, student achievement
    JEL: I28 J08 J45
    Date: 2022
  6. By: Arup Mitra; Rajesh Raushan (Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi)
    Abstract: Keeping in view the concept of agglomeration economies and the New Economic Geography (NEG) angle, this paper makes an attempt to examine the rural to urban population movement at the district level in India. The findings tend to confirm that higher levels of urbanisation and higher migration rates are not strongly associated. Nevertheless, there exists a cluster of districts which are able to attract migrants on a large scale in spite of being already urbanised. The work participation rate, share of services and construction work, and literacy rate all form parts of this positive nexus, indicating that opportunities exist with increased levels of urbanisation which prompt people to migrate. The positive spill-over effects of higher levels of urbanisation are not limited to the urban spaces only as the adjoining rural areas are also indicative of a significant transformation process. The land use pattern and activities seem to be changing and some of the developmental impact is evident. However, having concluded with a positive note it is important to mention that the regional variations in this respect bring out sharp differences in the relationship between urbanisation level and migration rates, determinants of the nature of urbanisation and also, the outcome variables of urbanisation and migration. There are many districts with higher levels of urbanisation; yet, they are not able to attract migrants at a rapid pace. New investment opportunities are to be created in these space to reduce the cost of growth and make employment creation more effective, facilitating the rural population to take the benefits of agglomeration economies.
    Keywords: migration, agglomeration, urbanisation, rural, mobility
    Date: 2021–05
  7. By: Tony Beatton; Michael P. Kidd; Matteo Sandi
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of compulsory schooling on in-school violence using individual-level administrative data matching education and criminal records from Queensland. Exploiting a dropout age reform in 2006, it defines a series of regression-discontinuity specifications. While police records show that property and drug offences decrease, education records indicate that in-school violence increases. Effects concentrate among students with prior criminal records and their classmates, with greater exposure to in-school violence leading to increased criminality at older ages. Dropout age reforms may alter the school environment and prior studies that fail to consider in-school behaviour may over-estimate their short-run crime-reducing impact.
    Keywords: youth crime, minimum dropout age, school attendance
    JEL: I20 K42
    Date: 2022
  8. By: Michael Bailey; Drew M. Johnston; Martin Koenen; Theresa Kuchler; Dominic Russel; Johannes Stroebel
    Abstract: We use de-identified data from Facebook to study the social integration of Syrian migrants in Germany, a country that received a large influx of refugees during the Syrian Civil War. We construct measures of migrants' social integration based on Syrians' friendship links to Germans, their use of the German language, and their participation in local social groups. We find large variation in Syrians' social integration across German counties, and use a movers' research design to document that these differences are largely due to causal effects of place. Regional differences in the social integration of Syrians are shaped both by the rate at which German natives befriend other locals in general (general friendliness) and the relative rate at which they befriend local Syrian migrants versus German natives (relative friending). We follow the friending behavior of Germans that move across locations to show that both general friendliness and relative friending are more strongly affected by place-based effects such as local institutions than by persistent individual characteristics of natives (e.g., attitudes toward neighbors or migrants). Relative friending is higher in areas with lower unemployment and more completed government-sponsored integration courses. Using variation in teacher availability as an instrument, we find that integration courses had a substantial causal effect on the social integration of Syrian migrants. We also use fluctuations in the presence of Syrian migrants across high school cohorts to show that natives with quasi-random exposure to Syrians in school are more likely to befriend other Syrian migrants in other settings, suggesting that contact between groups can shape subsequent attitudes towards migrants.
    JEL: D85 F22 J15 K37
    Date: 2022–04
  9. By: Ludwig von Auer; Mark Trede
    Abstract: This study introduces the urbanicity index of employment. This density-based measure is derived from spatial point pattern analysis and, therefore, makes use of the complete spatial information contained in geo-coded sectoral employment data. The index accounts for both the scale and the concentration aspect of urbanization. Changes in concentration can be decomposed into intersectoral mobility of employment and spatial mobility of sectors and further into the contributions of each sector of the economy. The index is applied to a large industrialized country and reveals that strong urbanization trends have occurred that simpler measures would overlook.
    Keywords: agglomeration, concentration, index, measurement, migration
    JEL: R12 J21 C43
    Date: 2022–04
  10. By: Wen Wang (Division of Social Science, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)
    Abstract: Policies that are designed to reduce environmental damages have the goal of protecting the environment while promoting efficiency and pursuing equity in their distribution of benefits and costs. This paper measures the differential welfare impacts of environmental policies across household groups. To account for property market responses and re-optimization of residential housing decisions, a dynamic model of housing decisions with endogenous tenure status (renting vs. owning) and forward-looking residents is used. The model extends the distributional analysis in four previously overlooked dimensions: differential impacts of property market appreciation on renters and owners, preference heterogeneity over public amenities, wealth accumulation corresponding to property market changes, and expectations in dynamic housing decisions. The model is estimated taking advantage of an exogenous and unexpected environmental shock and employing a unique data set (L.A.FANS Data) tracking residents locations and tenure choices in Los Angeles County from 2000 to 2007. The results show that environmental improvements have regressive welfare impacts and favor owners more than renters. Welfare impacts can be reduced for renters and can be changed from positive to negative for low-income renters incorporating housing market responses and residential sorting. In contrast, owners of all incomes benefit more due to the capitalization of environmental improvements incorporating housing market responses. Provided that renters are more likely to be low-income earners and people of color, the differential welfare results in this paper raise the concern of environmental justice in policy design and evaluations.
    Keywords: Gentrification, Residential Sorting, Tenure, Welfare Analysis
    Date: 2021–02
  11. By: Arup Mitra; Sabyasachi Tripathi (Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi)
    Abstract: Though a large portion of India’s urban population is living in large cities, the latest Census period (2001-2011) showed that small towns (population less than 0.1 million) such as Census towns have contributed 30% of the country’s urban growth. This phenomenon calls for bringing small towns into the limelight of the current urban development policies of India. In this context, the present paper investigates the determinants of the growth of small towns and their locations. The empirical exercise is performed by considering cluster analysis. Descriptive analysis suggests that in terms of coverage of cities and towns under different important urban policies the small towns are highly neglected. Cluster analysis suggests that different groups among the small towns are noticeable. The availability of infrastructure and amenities is very important for the growth of small towns in India and they are emerging in the vicinity of large cities with low variation in distance and population size. The results reveal that their emergence is the second-best solution after the scope for expansion gets exhausted within the city proper. Finally, policy options are recommended to make small towns more productive in the future so that they contribute to sustainable and higher economic growth in India.
    Keywords: small towns, population size, infrastructure, distance, cluster analysis, India
    JEL: R10 R12 O18
    Date: 2021–08
  12. By: Fremerey, Melinda; Hörnig, Lukas; Schaffner, Sandra
    Abstract: We investigate the effect of the refugee inflow between 2014 and 2017 on voting for the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the national parliamentary election in 2017 in Germany. Drawing on unique small-scale data enables us to distinguish between the contact theory, captured by the inflow of refugees into the immediate neighborhood (1km x 1km), and county-level (NUTS 3) effects, which might pick-up other, broader factors such as media coverage or specific county-level policies. We alleviate concerns of an endogenous refugee allocation by a shift-share instrument. Our results indicate that the contact theory is valid in urban West Germany, i. e., higher refugee inflows in West German urban neighborhoods decrease the shares of far-right voting, while there is no robust evidence of a relationship between refugee inflow and far-right vote shares in East Germany and rural West Germany.
    Keywords: voting behavior,neighborhood characteristics,refugees,immigration
    JEL: D72 J15 R23
    Date: 2022
  13. By: Frédéric Dobruszkes; Jean-Michel Decroly; Pere Suau-Sanchez
    Abstract: Aviation seasonality has been acknowledged for a long time, but no global picture is available. Our paper fills this gap by conducting a worldwide analysis of monthly passenger air services at the airport level, and discussing factors that shape this temporality. Our study found that 36% of airports worldwide (accounting for less than 12% of seats) experience a significant degree of seasonality, and that larger airports are less affected. On the one hand, diverse travel purposes related to larger cities, hubbing, physical geography, remoteness and appropriate weather throughout the year induce stable seat capacity. On the other hand, climate profiles and institutional factors are key factors of peaks. Aviation seasonality has impacts for airport funders and managers, regional development and scholars.
    Date: 2022–03–01
  14. By: Antoine Grandclement (TELEMME - Temps, espaces, langages Europe méridionale-Méditerranée - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Guilhem Boulay (ESPACE - Études des Structures, des Processus d’Adaptation et des Changements de l’Espace - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - AU - Avignon Université - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur)
    Abstract: This paper builds a theoretical framework to question the ramifications of the rise of consumption-based economy also known as residential economy in the context of a growing circulation of populations and income. We propose the term residentialization to describe the self-reinforcing and spatially uneven expansion of the residential economy, and its intertwined impacts on land use and tax revenues that are likely to influence future local planning policies. In local areas with a developing residential economy, demographic attractiveness and urbanization strongly affect the fiscal bases of property taxes and of household-related taxes in general as opposed to business taxes. This process provides local governments with new fiscal revenues but also induces a growing dependence on these incomes, especially in an austerity era. This de-diversification of local financial resources results in inequalities that weigh on local governments' financial leeway and hence on planning policies. Using a comprehensive database of the fiscal and financial resources of France's 35 000 municipalities over the last fifteen years, we provide cartographic and statistical evidence of this uneven fiscal de-diversification. We build a multivariate classification of France's municipalities and show strong links between the structure and evolutions of local financial resources and the pace and forms of urbanization. These results draw attention on the economic, social and environmental sustainability of consumption-oriented planning strategies in an austerity era.
    Keywords: Local tax revenues,austerity,regional development,planning policies,France
    Date: 2021
  15. By: Birzhan Batkeyev (International School of Economics, Kazakh-British Technical University); David R. DeRemer (Nazarbayev University, Graduate School of Business)
    Abstract: This is the first study to assess that air pollution increases criminal activity in a city with air pollution regularly exceeding international safety standards. For winter in Almaty, Kazakhstan, we collect data on crime and PM2.5 pollution across city districts over 8-hour intervals. Our identification strategy employs distinctive features of Almaty's geography: the proximity of some districts to mountain winds and the high frequency of temperature inversions. Using a PPML control function approach, we estimate a PM2.5 elasticity of the expected crime rate equal to 0.38, more than four times as large as elasticity estimates from studies of cleaner cities. Our data and empirical setting also facilitate our identification of air pollution effects on particular crime types. We find that air pollution increases robbery and high-stakes property crime more than low-stakes property crime. These new results support the theory that air pollution induces disregard for criminal consequences and bring further evidence that air pollution induces aggression.
    Keywords: Abnormal Air Pollution, PM2.5, Criminal Activity
    JEL: K42 Q50 Q53
    Date: 2022–04
  16. By: Afia Malik (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Islamabad); Idrees Khawaja (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Islamabad)
    Abstract: Rapid urbanisation places pressure on existing infrastructure facilities and the carrying capacity of cities. Pakistan has one of the highest population and urbanisation growth rates in the world.
    Keywords: Urban Resilience, Impact, Electricity
    Date: 2021
  17. By: Aspasia Bizopoulou; Rigissa Megalokonomou; Stefania Simion
    Abstract: In several countries, students who fail end-of-high-school high-stakes exams are faced with the choice of retaking them or forgoing postsecondary education. We explore exogenous variation generated by a 2006 policy that imposed a performance threshold for admission into postsecondary education in Greece to estimate the effect of retaking exams on a range of outcomes. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design and novel administrative data, we find that low-achieving students who retake national exams improve their performance by half a standard deviation, but do not receive offers from higher quality postsecondary placements. The driving mechanism for these results stems from increased competition.
    Keywords: postsecondary education admission, low-achieving students, exogenous policy, fuzzy regression discontinuity design
    JEL: J16 I21 I23
    Date: 2022
  18. By: Anselm Hager; Justin Mattias Valasek; Justin Mattias Valasek
    Abstract: In this paper, we study how forced migration impacts the in-group and out-group social capital of Syrian refugees and the host population in Northern Lebanon by administering a novel survey experiment in which we manipulate the salience of the migration experience (for refugees) and the refugee crisis (for the host population). Additionally, we study the social spillovers to Palestinians, an established refugee population in Lebanon. We find that the impact of forced migration is largely restricted to the Syrian refugee-Lebanese host population channel, and that it increases the relative disparity between in-group and out-group social capital. This may cause refugees to favor in-group interactions and therefore forgo more economically advantageous interactions with out-group members.
    Keywords: refugees, migration, social capital, experiment, ethnicity
    JEL: C90 J15 D91
    Date: 2022
  19. By: Garrett Anstreicher; Jason Fletcher; Owen Thompson
    Abstract: Court ordered desegregation plans were implemented in hundreds of US school districts nationwide from the 1960s through the 1980s, and were arguably the most substantive national attempt to improve educational access for African American children in modern American history. Using large Census samples that are linked to Social Security records containing county of birth, we implement event studies that estimate the long run effects of exposure to desegregation orders on human capital and labor market outcomes. We find that African Americans who were relatively young when a desegregation order was implemented in their county of birth, and therefore had more exposure to integrated schools, experienced large improvements in adult human capital and labor market outcomes relative to Blacks who were older when a court order was locally implemented. There are no comparable changes in outcomes among whites in counties undergoing an order, or among Blacks who were beyond school ages when a local order was implemented. These effects are strongly concentrated in the South, with largely null findings in other regions. Our data and methodology provide the most comprehensive national assessment to date on the impacts of court ordered desegregation, and strongly indicate that these policies were in fact highly effective at improving the long run socioeconomic outcomes of many Black students.
    JEL: I24 J71 J78
    Date: 2022–04
  20. By: Wenli Li; Costas Meghir; Florian Oswald
    Abstract: We specify and estimate a lifecycle model of consumption, housing demand and labor supply in an environment where individuals may file for bankruptcy or default on their mortgage. Uncertainty in the model is driven by house price shocks, {education specific} productivity shocks, and catastrophic consumption events, while bankruptcy is governed by the basic institutional framework in the US as implied by Chapter 7 and Chapter 13. The model is estimated using micro data on credit reports and mortgages combined with data from the American Community Survey. We use the model to understand the relative importance of the two chapters (7 and 13) for each of our two education groups that differ in both preferences and wage profiles. We also provide an evaluation of the BACPCA reform. Our paper demonstrates importance of distributional effects of Bankruptcy policy.
    JEL: D14 D18 D52 D53 E21 G33 J22 J31 K35
    Date: 2022–03
  21. By: Gaurav Khanna; Emir Murathanoglu; Caroline B. Theoharides; Dean Yang
    Abstract: How does income from international migrant labor affect the long-run development of migrant-origin areas? We leverage the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis to identify exogenous changes in international migrant income across regions of the Philippines, derived from spatial variation in exposure to exchange rate shocks. The initial shock to migrant income is magnified in the long run, leading to substantial increases in income in the domestic economy in migrant-origin areas; increases in population education; better-educated migrants; and increased migration in high-skilled jobs. Four-fifths of long-run income gains are actually from domestic (rather than international migrant) income. A simple structural model yields insights on mechanisms and magnitudes, in particular that one-fifth of long-run income gains are due to increased educational investments in origin areas. Increased income from international labor migration not only benefits migrants themselves, but also fosters long-run economic development in migrant-origin areas.
    JEL: F22 J24 O15 O16
    Date: 2022–03
  22. By: Wojciech Keblowski; Frédéric Dobruszkes; Kobe Boussauw
    Abstract: This article introduces a virtual special issue that carries the same title. We open our editorial by observing that the contemporary transport debate continues to find strong inspiration in the notion of “sustainable” development, which strongly resonates among academics and practitioners alike. While placing important environmental issues on the agenda, sustainable approaches to urban transport exhibit a number of serious limitations, as, as it has insufficiently engaged with diverse social, political and economic dynamics that shape how transport is planned, regulated, organised, practiced and contested in urban contexts.To respond to this gap, we propose to develop an emerging “critical” perspective on urban transport, which considers it to be socially constructed and contested, underpinned by structural power dynamics, class relations, gender and patriarchy, ethnicity and race. Building on critical urban theory, we argue that being critical about urban transport involves approaching it as a phenomenon that reproduces complex social and spatial processes, and acts as a crucial component of capitalism. On the one hand, this means analysing transport policy, practice and infrastructure through the lens of capitalist dynamics observed in particular urban contexts. On the other, it entails exploring the complexity of processes, institutions and interests that make up a city through its transport.While critical research on transport and mobility may be on the rise, it still constitutes a rather marginal research area. Therefore, the objective of the virtual special issue is to advance the critical agenda of transport research. The diverse contributions to this virtual special issue offer a number of avenues for thinking critically with and through urban transport as part and parcel of capitalism. Our authors discuss theoretical and methodological frameworks for studying transport, and offer empirical analyses of specific policies and practices, inquiring into their sociospatial impact, political-economic embeddedness and the power relations and regulatory frameworks by which they are shaped.What emerges from this anthology is that there is no singular or universal way of being critical about urban transport. Unravelling and analysing power and ideology underpinned and reproduced by transport in urban settings is by no means an exercise that hinges on a particular theoretical lens or focuses on a specific social group or factor. As this endavour is far from complete, we outline several directions for further critical research. Notably, we suggest to diversify spaces and scales of analysis by exploring long-distance travel, to diversify research objects by analysing freight and logistics. We also note that future research could consider diversifying social theories and epistemologies through which transport is perceived, to contribute to a decolonial turn in transport studies.
    Date: 2022–03–01
  23. By: Christopher J. Cronin; Matthew C. Harris; Nicolas R. Ziebarth
    Abstract: This paper studies how U.S. employees use paid sick leave. The most common U.S. sick-leave schemes operate as individualized credit accounts---paid leave is earned over time and unused leave accumulates, producing an employee-specific "leave balance." We construct a unique administrative dataset containing the daily balance information and leave behavior of 982 public school teachers from 2010 to 2018. We have three main findings: First, we provide evidence of judicious sick-leave use---namely, teachers use more sick leave during higher flu activity---but no evidence of inappropriate use for the purposes of leisure. Second, we find that leave use is increasing in the leave balance with an average balance-use elasticity of 0.45. This relationship is strongest at the very bottom of the balance distribution. Third, we find that a higher leave balance reduces the likelihood that a teacher works sick ("presenteeism"), especially during flu season. Taken together, these results suggest that a simple alteration to the current sick-leave scheme could reduce the likelihood of presenteeism, thereby lowering infection risk in schools, with few adverse consequences.
    JEL: I12 I13 I18 J22 J28 J32 J38
    Date: 2022–04
  24. By: Barbara Biasi; Song Ma
    Abstract: This paper documents differences across higher-education courses in the coverage of frontier knowledge. Comparing the text of 1.7M syllabi and 20M academic articles, we construct the “education-innovation gap,” a syllabus’s relative proximity to old and new knowledge. We show that courses differ greatly in the extent to which they cover frontier knowledge. More selective and better funded schools, and those enrolling socio-economically advantaged students, teach more frontier knowledge. Instructors play a big role in shaping course content; research-active instructors teach more frontier knowledge. Students from schools teaching more frontier knowledge are more likely to complete a PhD, produce more patents, and earn more after graduation.
    Keywords: education, innovation, syllabi, instructors, text analysis, inequality
    JEL: I23 I24 I26 J24 O33
    Date: 2022
  25. By: Paul Vertier (Sciences Po - Sciences Po, LIEPP - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire d'évaluation des politiques publiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Max Viskanic (Sciences Po - Sciences Po, LIEPP - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire d'évaluation des politiques publiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Matteo Gamalerio
    Abstract: Large migrant inflows have in the past spurred anti-immigrant sentiment, but is there a way small inflows can have a different impact? In this paper, we exploit the redistribution of migrants in the aftermath of the dismantling of the "Calais Jungle" in France to study the impact of the exposure to few migrants. Using an instrumental variables approach, we find that in the presence of a migrant center (CAO), the percentage growth rate of vote shares for the main far-right party (Front National, our proxy for anti-immigrant sentiment) between 2012 and 2017 is reduced by about 12.3 percentage points. Given that the Front National vote share increased by 20% on average between 2012 and 2017 in French municipalities, this estimation suggests that the growth rate of Front National votes in municipalities with a CAO was only 40% compared to the increase in municipalities without a CAO (which corresponds to a 3.9 percentage points lower increase). These effects, which dissipate spatially and depend on city characteristics, and crucially on the inflow's size, point towards the contact hypothesis (Allport (1954)).
    Keywords: migrant inflows,voting
    Date: 2020–09–01
  26. By: Vitor Vieira Vasconcelos (UFABC - Universidade Federal do ABC)
    Abstract: Considerations are presented on discourses and practices of public policies and public budget, regarding territorial development. The considerations are based on the author's experience in government institutions, at state and national level, in the executive and legislative powers in Brazil. This experience is compared to theoretical and applied studies on sustainable regional development, including agrarian reform, small-scale farming, ecological-economic zoning, transport infrastructure, city network hierarchies, and budgetary policies. The discussion shows how, behind discourses of regional development, there may be strategies for maintaining political power which may not always be the most appropriate for improving people's quality of life.
    Keywords: regional development,public policies,public budget,sustainable development,politics
    Date: 2021–03–30
  27. By: Runshan Fu; Ginger Zhe Jin; Meng Liu
    Abstract: Using bi-weekly snapshots of Zillow in three US cities, we document how home sellers and buyers interact with Zillow's Zestimate algorithm during the sales cycle of residential properties. We find that listing and selling outcomes respond significantly to Zestimate, and Zestimate is quickly updated for the focal and comparable houses after a listing or a transaction is completed. The user-Zestimate interactions have mixed implications: on the one hand, listing price depends more on Zestimate if the city does not mandate disclosure of sales information or if the neighborhood is more heterogeneous, suggesting that Zestimate provides valuable information when alternative information is more difficult to obtain; on the other hand, the post-listing update of Zestimate tracks listing price more closely in non-disclosure and heterogeneous neighborhoods, raising the concern that the feedback loop may propagate disturbances in the sales process. However, by leveraging COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment, we find no evidence that Zestimate propagates the initial shock from the March-2020 declaration of national emergency, probably because Zestimate has built-in guard rails and users tend to adjust their confidence in Zestimate according to observed market outcomes.
    JEL: D83 L11 L85 L86
    Date: 2022–03
  28. By: Huang, Yiduo MSc; Shen, Zuo-Jun PhD
    Abstract: During the COVID-19 outbreak, serious concerns were raised over the risk of spreading the infection on public transportation systems. As the pandemic recedes it will be important to determine optimal timetable design to minimize the risk of new infections as systems resume full service. In this study, we developed an integrated optimization model for service line reopening plans and timetable design. Our model combines a space-time passenger network flow problem and compartmental epidemiological models for each vehicle and platform in the transit system. The algorithm can help policy makers to design schedules under COVID-19 more efficiently. The report develops an optimized timetable for the Bay Area Rapid Transit system. We found that if passengers choose other mode of transportation when closing part of the system or decreasing the frequency of service can prevent the spread of infections, otherwise, if passengers choose to use the closest open station, closings will lead to longer waiting times, higher passenger density and greater infection risk. We found that the goal of stopping the spread of infection could be achieved by minimizing the total delay when infections were similar in different districts across the service area. Where infection rates are different in different districts, minimizing the risk of exposure can be achieved by minimizing weighted travel time where higher weights are applied to areas where the infection rate is highest.
    Keywords: Engineering, COVID-19, public transit, risk management, transit vehicle operations, ridership, schedules and scheduling, travel demand, epidemiology, algorithms
    Date: 2022–04–01
  29. By: STRAULINO Daniel; DIODATO Dario (European Commission - JRC); O'CLERY Neave
    Abstract: Are recessions drivers of structural change? Here we investigate the resilience of cities, and argue that a re-allocation of labour between industrial sectors in times of crisis induces an acceleration in structural change. Using UK data, we find that cities experienced a sharp increase in inter-sectoral job transitions, and that local employment in skill-related sectors is most strongly associated with employment growth, during the recession, which we identify with the period of employment contraction between 2008 and 2011. This coincides with a massive but short-lived increase in the rate of structural change (i.e. the total change in employment shares of different industries) around 2009. These findings suggest that cities with skill-related sectors re-allocate workers in a crisis, thus inducing structural change.
    Keywords: Cities, resilience, financial crisis, labour markets, structural change, labour mobility
    Date: 2022–04
  30. By: Lara Coulier; Selien De Schryder (-)
    Abstract: We construct new data-driven intensity-adjusted indices for a broad set of macroprudential policy announcements in the European Union (EU) that are able to capture the restrictiveness and bindingness of the macroprudential policy actions. The indices are used to assess the effectiveness of borrower-based macroprudential policy in reducing credit in the EU from 1995 to 2019. Our results indicate that these instruments have successfully reduced household, housing, and to a smaller extent consumption credit, especially in the long run. Moreover, we find that standard dummy approaches used to measure macroprudential policy signal different effects of borrower-based policies in our sample and are more sensitive to outliers, resulting in deceptive and incomplete results.
    Keywords: Macroprudential policy, intensity-adjustment, household credit, panel data analysis
    JEL: E58 C23 G18 G28
    Date: 2022–04
  31. By: James Dzansi; Anders Jensen; David Lagakos; Henry Telli
    Abstract: This paper studies the role of technology in local-government tax collection capacity in the developing world. We first conduct a new census of all local governments in Ghana to document a strong association between technology use and property tax billing, collection and enforcement. We then randomize the use of a new revenue collection technology within one large municipal government. Revenue collectors using the new technology delivered 27 percent more bills and collected 103 percent more tax revenues than control collectors. Collectors using the new technology learned faster about which households in their assigned areas were willing and able to make payments. We reconcile these experimental findings in a simple Beckerian time-use model in which technology allows revenue collectors to better allocate their time towards households that are the most likely to comply with taxpaying duties. The model's predictions are consistent with experimental evidence showing that treatment collectors are more likely to target households with greater liquidity, income, awareness of taxpaying duties, and satisfaction with local public goods provision.
    JEL: H2 H71 O12 O33
    Date: 2022–04
  32. By: Arup Mitra; Yuko Tsujita (Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi)
    Abstract: This paper based on the household panel data collected from the slum surveys in the national capital of India notes that the extent of mobility is not uniform across slum households, which in the literature is interpreted as time independent mobility. It tries to identify the determinants of mobility through various econometric models, keeping in view the appropriateness to reflect on the mobility aspect. Given the city environment, the individual specific factors such as educational attainments are important in determining mobility. Even within the city, activities and labour market vary widely across regions, and the outcomes in terms of mobility are different, reflecting on physical segmentation, the mobility constraints and the variations in individual motivational drive. Access to information also differs depending on the migration status of the population. In the labour market gender discriminatory factors are at place for which the wages diverge between females and males, resulting in variations in mobility. The policy implications may be envisaged in terms of educational and skill imparting programmes, effective dissemination of job market information, provision of inexpensive commuting facilities within the city and reduction in gender differentials in the labour market
    Date: 2021–07
  33. By: Guillaume Chapelle (LIEPP - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire d'évaluation des politiques publiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, CY - CY Cergy Paris Université)
    Abstract: This paper uses a difference-in-differences (DID) framework to estimate the impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) used to fight the 1918 influenza pandemic and control the resultant mortality in 43 U.S. cities. The results suggest that NPIs such as school closures and social distancing, as implemented in 1918, and when applied for a relatively long and sustained time, might have reduced individual and herd immunity and the population general health condition, thereby leading to a significantly higher number of deaths in subsequent years.
    Keywords: non-pharmaceutical interventions,1918 influenza,difference-in-differences,health policies
    Date: 2020–10–01
  34. By: Heshmati, Almas (Jönköping University, Sogang University); Koohborfardhaghighi, Somayeh (University of Amsterdam); Summers, Christopher R. (University of Missouri-St. Louis)
    Abstract: The path of urbanization around the world and in particular in China has been rapid. This study addresses measurement of a composite index of networking among key components of societal infrastructure and how it affects the process of urbanization. This study has a number of objectives. First we identify key determinants of public infrastructure components in China at the province level. Second a multidimensional index of the networking among the components is computed. The index belongs to parametric family of composite indices. It is composed of a number of components: Economic, Hospitality, Public Facilities, Human Development, and Communication Facility. Each component of the index is composed of a number of indicators. The index is used to rank provinces in China by development of level of the networking among public infrastructure components. In another step we estimate the effects of the composite index and its underlying components on urbanization. Finally, the findings is used to achieve smooth urbanization strategy for Chinese provinces. The empirical results are based on China's province level data covering the period 2005-2014. Our investigations provide evidence that integration of technological and social components are necessary to promote the development of an optimal and a smart urban development model. The necessity of an optimal and targeted urban infrastructure investment strategy emerges from our analysis. We briefly discuss the possible lessons learned from some of the successful provincial urbanization strategies.
    Keywords: multidimensional index, composite index, principal component, urban infrastructure, China’s provinces
    JEL: D31 I10 I20 I30 J13
    Date: 2022–04
  35. By: Alfonso Mendoza-Velazquez (Centro de Investigacion e Inteligencia Economica-Universidad Popular Autonoma del Estado de Puebla); Heidi J. Smith (Department of Economics, Universidad Iberoamericana Ciudad de Mexico); Diego Mendoza-Martinez (Department of Economics-Universidad de las Americas Puebla)
    Abstract: This research employs Mexico’s state level data from 2001-2016 to examine the nexus between debt sustainability and regional economic growth. Following the ideas of Reinhart and Rogoff 2010 and Ilzetzki, et al 2019, the research seeks to establish the threshold between debt and regional growth. There is a need to understand whether increasing debt exerts benign effects on regional GDP growth in centralized fiscal systems prevalent in emerging countries and whether these effects differ by type of financing. The study employs the dynamic panel approach by Arellano and Bond (1991) to control for different types of endogeneity and the Seo and Shin (2016) kink model to estimate debt thresholds. The results point to a weak but positive association between debt and GDP growth, which differs by type of debt. Subnational debt thresholds of local governments locate at 67% as a share of guaranteed resources–lower than those reported at the national level. Employing debt as a share of GDP we find a much lower debt threshold (3.25%) which is explained by the fiscal interrelations architecture of federal systems with high local government dependence on federal transfers and subject to soft budget problems. The study finds economic growth is more sensitive to commercial bank debt and capital market debt than other types of debt.
    JEL: H6 H63 H7
    Date: 2022–03–29
  36. By: Gerda Asmus; Raphaël Franck
    Abstract: This study analyzes how state capacity shapes the local impact of national policies by exploiting a quasi-natural experiment in the regional expansion of the state. It uses the local discontinuity created by the boundary of the largest peasant rebellion in 18th century Russia where the state increased security forces and levied taxes more efficiently after the uprising ended. The results show that increased state capacity had limited effects on economic growth until the central government targeted specific development objectives. Namely, when rulers chose to build schools or foster industrialization, their national policies benefited areas which already had strong state capacity.
    Keywords: economic growth, public policies, Russia, state capacity
    JEL: O11 O43 N13 N14
    Date: 2022
  37. By: Jo Blanden (University of Surrey); Matthias Doepke (Northwestern University); Jan Stuhler (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)
    Abstract: This chapter provides new evidence on educational inequality and reviews the literature on the causes and consequences of unequal education. We document large achievement gaps between children from different socioeconomic backgrounds, show how patterns of educational inequality vary across countries, time, and generations, and establish a link between educational inequality and social mobility. We interpret this evidence from the perspective of economic models of skill acquisition and investment in human capital. The models account for different channels underlying unequal education and highlight how endogenous responses in parents’ and children's educational investments generate a close link between economic inequality and educational inequality. Given concerns over the extended school closures during the Covid-19 pandemic, we also summarize early evidence on the impact of the pandemic on children’s education and on possible long-run repercussions for educational inequality.
    Keywords: COVID-19, skill acquisition, educational inequality
    JEL: I24 J16 I24 I00
    Date: 2022–04
  38. By: Khalifany-Ash Shidiqi (Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta and University of Barcelona); Antonio Di Paolo (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona); Álvaro Choi (University of Barcelona)
    Abstract: Natural disasters are a significant threat to human development. In this paper, we analyze the effects of being exposed to a strong earthquake during school age on schooling outcomes. We merge geolocated data about the intensity of the shock at the district level with individual information from the Indonesia Family Life Survey. The identification strategy exploits variation in exposure to the natural shock by birth cohort and district of residence, considering as the treated group individuals who were residing in affected districts while they were in school age. Earthquake exposure reduces years of schooling by somewhat less than one year and negatively affects the probability of completing compulsory education but does not alter the chances of enrolling into postcompulsory education. Falsification analysis and several robustness checks corroborate the causal interpretation of our findings. The analysis of the potential mechanisms indicates that induced migration and casualties occurring at the family level as a consequence of the earthquake do not seem to play a relevant role. However, damages in educational infrastructures do represent a relevant channel through which natural disasters harm human capital formation. Part of the overall impact of the earthquake represents a delay in schooling progression, but a substantial share of its effect consists in a permanent loss of human capital among affected individuals..
    Keywords: Natural disasters, Earthquake, Schooling, Educational infrastructures. JEL classification: I25, I24, O15, Q54
    Date: 2022–05
  39. By: Ashlesha Datar; Nancy Nicosia; Anya Samek
    Abstract: We leverage a natural experiment in combination with data on adolescents’ time preferences to assess whether there is heterogeneity in place effects on adolescent obesity. We exploit the plausibly exogenous assignment of military servicemembers, and consequently their children, to different installations to identify place effects. Adolescents’ time preferences are measured by a validated survey scale. Using the obesity rate in the assigned installation county as a summary measure of its obesity-related environments, we show that exposure to counties with higher obesity rates increases the likelihood of obesity among less patient adolescents but not among their more patient counterparts.
    JEL: I10 J13 R23
    Date: 2022–04
  40. By: Elizabeth Burland; Susan Dynarski; Katherine Michelmore; Stephanie Owen; Shwetha Raghuraman
    Abstract: Proposed "free college" policies vary widely in design. The simplest approach sets tuition to zero for everyone. More targeted approaches limit free tuition to those who successfully demonstrate need through an application process. We experimentally test the effects of these two models on the schooling decisions of low-income students. An unconditional free tuition offer from a large public university substantially increases application and enrollment rates. A free tuition offer contingent on proof of need has a much smaller effect on application and none on enrollment. The results suggest students place a high value on financial certainty when making schooling decisions.
    JEL: I0 I21 I22 I24 I28
    Date: 2022–03
  41. By: Huan, Yiduo MSc; Shen, Zuojun Max PhD
    Abstract: During the COVID-19 pandemic, public transportation systems worldwide faced many challenges, including significant loss of ridership. Public agencies implemented various COVID-19-related policies to reduce transmission, such as reducing service frequency and network coverage of public transportation. Recent studies have examined the effectiveness of these policies but reach different conclusions due to varying assumptions about how passengers may react to service changes.
    Keywords: Engineering
    Date: 2022–04–01
  42. By: Marta Cristina Nunes Simões (University of Coimbra, Centre for Business and Economics Research, CeBER and Faculty of Economics); João Alberto Sousa Andrade (University of Coimbra, Centre for Business and Economics Research, CeBER and Faculty of Economics); Maria Adelaide Pedrosa Silva Duarte (University of Coimbra, Centre for Business and Economics Research, CeBER and Faculty of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper examines the influence of human capital on labour market resilience in the seven Portuguese NUTS-2 over the period 1995-2018. We define resilience as the ability of regional employment to recover from a shock to output over the business cycle. We use the Local Projection (LP) methodology applied to a SVAR model with three variables - employment, human capital, real GDP - and the output gap as the switching variable for the identification of recession and expansion regimes. We explore SVAR specifications that condition the response of the labour market to two scenarios: (a) the shock to GDP occurs during recessions; and (b) the shock to GDP occurs during expansions. The comparison of the employment responses to GDP shocks between the two regimes is informative about the degree of resilience of the labour market. We find evidence of: (i) distinct effects in terms of the sign and amplitude of GDP shocks on regional employment according to the level of educational attainment of the employees; (ii) labour market resilience and jobless recoveries in several regions; and (iii) different regional reactions of human capital to GDP shocks depending on the regime.
    Keywords: Employment resilience, GDP shocks, local projections, structural VARs, NUTS2, Portugal
    JEL: I25 J21 J24 R10 R15
    Date: 2022–01
  43. By: Jung-In Yeon; Sojung Hwang; Bogang Jun
    Abstract: We examine the spillover effect of neighboring ports on regional industrial diversification and their economic resilience using the export data of South Korea from 2006 to 2020. First, we build two distinct product spaces of ports and port regions, and provide direct estimates of the role of neighboring ports as spillover channels spatially linked. This is in contrast to the previous literature that mainly regarded ports as transport infrastructure per se. Second, we confirm that the knowledge spillover effect from neighboring ports had a non-negligible role in sustaining regional economies during the recovery after the economic crisis but its power has weakened recently due to a loosened global value chain.
    Date: 2022–03
  44. By: E. Jason Baron; Max Gross
    Abstract: Foster care placement is strongly associated with crime—for example, close to one fifth of the prison population in the United States is comprised of former foster children—yet there is little evidence on whether this relationship is causal. Leveraging the quasi-random assignment of child welfare investigators and administrative data from Michigan, we show that foster care placement substantially reduced the chances of adult arrests, convictions, and incarceration for children at the margin. Exploring mechanisms, we find that foster care also improved a range of children's safety, academic, and behavioral intermediate outcomes. A likely reason for children's improvements is that their birth parents made positive changes, as most children in our setting reunified with their parents after a short stay in foster care. In light of recent historic federal policy which prioritizes keeping children with their families, our analysis indicates that safely reducing foster care caseloads will require improving efforts to ensure child wellbeing in the home.
    JEL: H75 I38 J13 K42
    Date: 2022–04
  45. By: Achard, Pascal (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)
    Date: 2022
  46. By: Sala, Hector (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona); Trivín, Pedro (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)
    Abstract: This paper studies the direct impact of households' debt on consumption over the business cycle. We use household-level panel data for Spain, and focus on a interesting period of analysis, 2002-2017, characterized by large variations in leverage, consumption, and asset prices. We find that debt levels exert a negative impact on consumption, which is particularly strong in periods of high leverage and falling asset prices. This negative effect is persistent in time and significant along the post-Great Recession deleveraging process of Spanish households. We further observe that: (i) changes in households' debt in past periods are not relevant in determining consumption; (ii) households adjust faster their consumption to debt that is non-related to real estate assets; (iii) results are not driven by the characteristics of real estate loans; and (iv) credit constraints do not play a major role in shaping the debt-consumption nexus. We conclude that, in contrast to the spending normalization hypothesis, it is debt overhang what is likely to prevail in a situation of high leverage and financial stress such as the one brought by the Great Recession. Consequently, policies preventing households to embark in excessive leverage in good times and debt relief policies in bad times have a role to play to avoid larger consumption decreases in recessive periods.
    Keywords: consumption, household debt, financial stress, debt overhang, survey
    JEL: D12 D14 E21 G01 G51
    Date: 2022–04
  47. By: Beyer, Robert C. M. (World Bank); Narayanan, Abhinav (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank); Thakur, Gogol Mitra (Centre for Development Studies)
    Abstract: Exceptionally high rainfall in the Indian state of Kerala caused major flooding in 2018. This paper estimates the short-run causal impact of the disaster on the economy, using a difference-in-difference approach. Monthly nighttime light intensity, a proxy for aggregate economic activity, suggests that activity declined for three months during the disaster but boomed subsequently. Automated teller machine transactions, a proxy for consumer demand, declined and credit disbursal increased, with households borrowing more for housing and less for consumption. In line with other results, both household income and expenditure declined during the floods. Despite a strong wage recovery after the floods, spending remained lower relative to the unaffected districts. The paper argues that increased labor demand due to reconstruction efforts increased wages after the floods and provides corroborating evidence: (i) rural labor markets tightened, (ii) poorer households benefited more, and (iii) wages increased most where government relief was strongest. The findings confirm the presence of interesting economic dynamics during and right after natural disasters that remain in the shadow when analyzed with annual data.
    Keywords: natural disasters ; aggregate activity ; household behavior ; spatial analysis
    JEL: Q54 R22 D12 O44
    Date: 2022–04
  48. By: Mr. Thierry Tressel; Eugen Tereanu; Mr. Marco Gross; Xiaodan Ding
    Abstract: We present an analysis of the sensitivity of household mortgage probabilities of default (PDs) and loss given default (LGDs) on unemployment rates, house price growth, interest rates, and other drivers. A structural micro-macro simulation model is used to that end. It is anchored in the balance sheets and income-expense flow data from about 95,000 households and 230,000 household members from 21 EU countries and the U.S. We present country-specific nonlinear regressions based on the structural model simulation-implied relation between PDs and LGDs and their drivers. These can be used for macro scenario-conditional forecasting, without requiring the conduct of the micro simulation. We also present a policy counterfactual analysis of the responsiveness of mortgage PDs, LGDs, and bank capitalization conditional on adverse scenarios related to the COVID-19 pandemic across all countries. The economics of debt moratoria and guarantees are discussed against the background of the model-based analysis.
    Keywords: Credit risk, household sector, micro-macro simulation modeling, financial policies
    Date: 2022–04–01
  49. By: John M. Abowd; Robert Ashmead; Ryan Cumings-Menon; Simson Garfinkel; Micah Heineck; Christine Heiss; Robert Johns; Daniel Kifer; Philip Leclerc; Ashwin Machanavajjhala; Brett Moran; William Sexton; Matthew Spence; Pavel Zhuravlev
    Abstract: The Census TopDown Algorithm (TDA) is a disclosure avoidance system using differential privacy for privacy-loss accounting. The algorithm ingests the final, edited version of the 2020 Census data and the final tabulation geographic definitions. The algorithm then creates noisy versions of key queries on the data, referred to as measurements, using zero-Concentrated Differential Privacy. Another key aspect of the TDA are invariants, statistics that the Census Bureau has determined, as matter of policy, to exclude from the privacy-loss accounting. The TDA post-processes the measurements together with the invariants to produce a Microdata Detail File (MDF) that contains one record for each person and one record for each housing unit enumerated in the 2020 Census. The MDF is passed to the 2020 Census tabulation system to produce the 2020 Census Redistricting Data (P.L. 94-171) Summary File. This paper describes the mathematics and testing of the TDA for this purpose.
    Date: 2022–04
  50. By: Marcel Lincényi (Alexander Dubček University of Trenčín); Matej Mindár (Alexander Dubček University of Trenčín)
    Abstract: This paper addresses current views and attitudes of pupils on the division of the Czech and Slovak Federative Republic (CSFR). The current young generation has not experienced the division of the former common state of Czechs and Slovaks. They thus gain their opinions and knowledge on this issue not only from the school environment, but also from their parents or grandparents. The main research objective was a comparative analysis of the current views and knowledge of selected elementary and secondary school pupils in the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic on the division of ČSFR into two separate States. Through their research method, the authors identified how selected respondents perceived post-November political processes leading to the constitutional and peaceful division of the Czech and Slovak Federative Republic. One of the positive benefits of their study was the fact that most Slovak and Czech respondents perceived positively the emergence of the independant Slovak and Czech Republics as of 1 January 1993.
    Keywords: Czech and Slovak Federative Republic,Slovak Republic,Czech Republic,research,elementary schools,secondary schools,citizenship,education
    Date: 2021–03–30
  51. By: Bassanini, Andrea (OECD); Bovini, Giulia (Bank of Italy); Caroli, Eve (Université Paris-Dauphine); Ferrando, Jorge Casanova (Compass Lexecon); Cingano, Federico (Bank of Italy); Falco, Paolo (University of Copenhagen); Felgueroso, Florentino (FEDEA, Madrid); Jansen, Marcel (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid); Martins, Pedro S. (Nova School of Business and Economics); Melo, António (Université Paris-Dauphine); Oberfichtner, Michael (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Popp, Martin (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg)
    Abstract: We investigate the impact of labour market concentration on two dimensions of job quality, namely wages and job security. We leverage rich administrative linked employer-employee data from Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain in the 2010s to provide the first comparable cross-country evidence in the literature. Controlling for productivity and local product market concentration, we show that the elasticities of wages with respect to labour market concentration are strikingly similar across countries: increasing labour market concentration by 10% reduces wages by 0.19% in Germany, 0.22% in France, 0.25% in Portugal and 0.29% in Denmark. Regarding job security, we find that an increase in labour market concentration by 10% reduces the probability of being hired on a permanent contract by 0.46% in France, 0.51% in Germany and 2.34% in Portugal. While not affecting this probability in Italy and Spain, labour market concentration significantly reduces the probability of being converted to a permanent contract once hired on a temporary one. Our results suggest that considering only the effect of labour market concentration on wages underestimates its overall impact on job quality and hence the resulting welfare loss for workers.
    Keywords: labour market concentration, monopsony, wages, job security
    JEL: J31 J42 L41
    Date: 2022–04
  52. By: Lockwood, Ben (University of Warwick); Francesco Porcelli (University of Bari); James Rockey (University of Birmingham)
    Abstract: This paper uses an instrumental variable approach based on close elections to evaluate the effect of political parties on local fiscal policy in England and Wales over the period 1998-2016. Our main finding is that political control of the council (by Labour, Conservative or Liberal Democrat parties) has no effect on total expenditure, the composition of expenditure, the property tax rate (council tax per band D property) or total council tax revenue. Thus, our results confirm the widely expressed belief that centrally imposed constraints on local government fiscal policy (rate-capping, and more recently, compulsory referenda) hold local government fiscal policy in a tight grip.
    Keywords: Party Control ; Grants ; Government Spending ; Taxation JEL Classification: H70 ; H71 ; D72
    Date: 2022
  53. By: Tatyana Deryugina; Olga Shurchkov; Jenna Stearns
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic created unexpected and prolonged disruptions to childcare access. Using survey evidence on time use by academic researchers before and after the pandemic, we analyze the extent to which greater access to either school-based or partner-provided childcare mitigated the severe disruptions to research observed among parents during COVID-19. We find that access to public schools offset the research time loss to a greater extent among mothers of young children relative to fathers, narrowing the emerging post-pandemic gender gap. Having a stay-at-home partner reduced the disruptions to research time equally for both genders.
    Keywords: gender differences, Covid-19, academia
    JEL: D10 J16 J44
    Date: 2022
  54. By: Sandhya Garg; Samarth Gupta (Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi)
    Abstract: Can expansion of bank branch network reduce gender-gap in economic activity at the village level? To explore this issue, we construct a novel village-level panel data where we observe the financial access of each unbanked village in India defined as its distance to the nearest village/town with bank branch from 1951-2019; and village-level enterprise data of four economic census rounds of 1990, 1998, 2005 and 2013. To account for endogeneity in placement of bank branches, we use a difference-indifference methodology. We find that the presence of a bank branch within 5km of an un-banked village between 2005 and 2013 (Treatment Group) mitigated the gender gap in entrepreneurship, and employment. The increase in number of female enterprises and in the size of female employment occurs fully driven by non-agricultural sector, whereas a shift is observed in male entrepreneurship from agricultural to nonagricultural sector. We also find evidence that this transition may be a consequence of credit uptake by enterprises from non-institutional sources as proximity to a bankedcenter improves. Our results are robust to unobservable village and year effects, and presence of alternative village-level infrastructure.
    Keywords: Credit, Banking, Branch Expansion, Gender Gap, Entrepreneurship, Enterprise and Development
    JEL: G21 G28 O12
    Date: 2021–09
  55. By: Alessandro Acquisti; Catherine Tucker
    Abstract: Open government holds promise of both a more efficient but more accountable and transparent government. It is not clear, however, how transparent information about citizens and their interaction with government, however, affects the welfare of those citizens, and if so in what direction. We investigate this by using as a natural experiment the effect of the online publication of the names and addresses of holders of handgun carry permits on criminals' propensity to commit burglaries. In December 2008, a Memphis, TN newspaper published a searchable online database of names, zip codes, and ages of Tennessee handgun carry permit holders. We use detailed crime and handgun carry permit data for the city of Memphis to estimate the impact of publicity about the database on burglaries. We find that burglaries increased in zip codes with fewer gun permits, and decreased in those with more gun permits, after the database was publicized.
    JEL: K2 K24 M48
    Date: 2022–04
  56. By: Zoe B. Cullen; Will S. Dobbie; Mitchell Hoffman
    Abstract: State and local policies increasingly restrict employers’ access to criminal records, but without addressing the underlying reasons that employers may conduct criminal background checks. Employers may thus still want to ask about a job applicant’s criminal record later in the hiring process or make inaccurate judgments based on an applicant’s demographic characteristics. In this paper, we use a field experiment conducted in partnership with a nationwide staffing platform to test policies that more directly address the reasons that employers may conduct criminal background checks. The experiment asked hiring managers at nearly a thousand U.S. businesses to make incentive-compatible decisions under different randomized conditions. We find that 39% of businesses in our sample are willing to work with individuals with a criminal record at baseline, which rises to over 50% when businesses are offered crime and safety insurance, a single performance review, or a limited background check covering just the past year. Wage subsidies can achieve similar increases but at substantially higher cost. Based on our findings, the staffing platform relaxed the criminal background check requirement and offered crime and safety insurance to interested businesses.
    JEL: C93 J23 J24 M51
    Date: 2022–04
  57. By: Mark Borgschulte; David Molitor; Eric Zou
    Abstract: We study how air pollution impacts the U.S. labor market by analyzing effects of drifting wildfire smoke that can affect populations far from the fires themselves. We link satellite smoke plumes with labor market outcomes to estimate that an additional day of smoke exposure reduces quarterly earnings by about 0.1 percent. Extensive margin responses, including employment reductions and labor force exits, can explain 13 percent of the overall earnings losses. The implied welfare cost of lost earnings due to air pollution exposure is on par with standard valuations of the mortality burden. The findings suggest that labor market channels warrant greater consideration in policy responses to air pollution.
    JEL: J21 Q51 Q52 Q53 Q54
    Date: 2022–04

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