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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Brausewetter, Lars (Leibniz University of Hannover); Thomsen, Stephan L. (Leibniz University of Hannover); Trunzer, Johannes (Leibniz University of Hannover) |
| Abstract: | Over the last decade, German housing prices have increased unprecedentedly. Drawing on quality-adjusted housing price data at the district level, we document large and increasing regional disparities: growth rates were higher in 1) the largest seven cities, 2) districts located in the south, and 3) districts with higher initial price levels. Indications of price bubbles are concentrated in the largest cities and in the purchasing market. Prices seem to be driven by the demand side: increasing population density, higher shares of academically educated employees and increasing purchasing power explain our findings, while supply remained relatively constrained in the short term. |
| Keywords: | rental prices, housing market, Germany, regional disparities |
| JEL: | R23 R31 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15199&r= |
| By: | Brausewetter, Lars; Thomsen, Stephan L.; Trunzer, Johannes |
| Abstract: | Over the last decade, German housing prices have increased unprecedentedly. Drawing on quality-adjusted housing price data at the district level, we document large and increasing regional disparities: Growth rates were higher in 1) the largest seven cities, 2) districts located in the south, and 3) districts with higher initial price levels. Indications of price bubbles are concentrated in the largest cities and in the purchasing market. Prices seem to be driven by the demand side: Increasing population density, higher shares of academically educated employees and increasing purchasing power explain our findings, while supply remained relatively constrained in the short term. |
| Keywords: | Germany,housing market,regional disparities,rental prices |
| JEL: | R23 R31 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:132022&r= |
| By: | Theresa Kuchler; Monika Piazzesi; Johannes Stroebel |
| Abstract: | We review the recent literature on the determinants and effects of housing market expectations. We begin by providing an overview of existing surveys that elicit housing market expectations, and discuss how those surveys may be expanded in the future. We then document a number of facts about time-series and cross-sectional patterns of housing market expectations in these survey data, before summarizing research that has studied how individuals form these expectations. Housing market expectations are strongly influenced by recently observed house price changes, by personally or locally observed house price changes, by house price changes observed in a person’s social network, and by current home ownership status. Similarly, experienced house price volatility affects expectations uncertainty. We also summarize recent work that documents how differences in housing market expectations translate into differences in individuals’ housing market behaviors, including their home purchasing and mortgage financing decisions. Finally, we highlight research on how expectations affect aggregate outcomes in the housing market. |
| Keywords: | expectation formation, housing markets, mortgage choice, extrapolative expectations, peer effects, social learning |
| JEL: | D83 G50 R30 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9665&r= |
| By: | Cun, W.; Pesaran, M. H. |
| Abstract: | This paper develops and solves a spatiotemporal equilibrium model in which regional wages and house prices are jointly determined with location-to-location migration flows. The agent’s optimal location choice and the resultant migration process are shown to be Markovian, with the transition probabilities across all location pairs given as non-linear functions of wage and housing cost differentials, endogenously responding to migration flows. The model can be used for the analysis of spatial distribution of population, income, and house prices, as well as for spatiotemporal impulse response analysis. The model is estimated on a panel of 48 mainland U.S. states and the District of Columbia using the training sample (1976-1999), and shown to fit the data well over the evaluation sample (2000-2014). The estimated model is then used to analyze the size and speed of spatial spill-over effects by computing spatiotemporal impulse responses of positive productivity and land-supply shocks to California, Texas, and Florida. Our simulation results show that states with a lower level of land-use regulation can benefit more from positive state-specific productivity shocks; and positive land-supply shocks are much more effective in states, such as California, that are subject to more stringent land-use regulations. |
| Keywords: | location choice, joint determination of migration fl‡ows and house prices, spatiotemporal impulse response analysis, land-use deregulation, population allocation, productivity and land supply shocks, California, Texas and Florida |
| JEL: | E00 R23 R31 |
| Date: | 2022–04–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2225&r= |
| By: | Jiafeng Chen; Edward Glaeser; David Wessel |
| Abstract: | Will the Opportunity Zones (OZ) program, America's largest new place-based policy in decades, generate neighborhood change? We compare single-family housing price growth in OZs with price growth in areas that were eligible but not included in the program. We also compare OZs to their nearest geographic neighbors. Our most credible estimates rule out price impacts greater than 0.5 percentage points with 95% confidence, suggesting that, so far, home buyers don't believe that this subsidy will generate major neighborhood change. OZ status reduces prices in areas with little employment, perhaps because buyers think that subsidizing new investment will increase housing supply. Mixed evidence suggests that OZs may have increased residential permitting. |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2204.06967&r= |
| By: | Jaunius Karmelavičius (Bank of Lithuania); Ieva Mikaliūnaitė-Jouvanceau (Vilnius University and Bank of Lithuania); Austėja Petrokaitė (Bank of Lithuania) |
| Abstract: | During the Covid-19 pandemic, house prices and mortgage credit are growing at a long-unseen pace. However, it is unclear, whether such growth is warranted by the underlying market and macroeconomic fundamentals. This paper offers a new structural two-market disequilibrium model that can be estimated using full-information methods, and applied to analyse housing and credit dynamics. Dealing with econometric specification uncertainty, we estimate a large ensemble of the two-market disequilibrium model specifications for Lithuanian monthly data. Using the model estimates, we identify the historical drivers of Lithuania’s housing and credit demand and supply, as well as price and market quantity variables. The paper provides a novel approach in the financial stability literature to jointly measure house price overvaluation and mortgage credit flow gaps. We find that by mid-2021 Lithuania was experiencing a heating in housing and mortgage credit markets, with home prices overvalued by around 16% and the volume of mortgage credit flow being 20% above its fundamentals. |
| Keywords: | disequilibrium, fundamentals, misalignments, house prices, mortgage credit, early warning indicators |
| JEL: | C34 D50 E44 E51 G21 |
| Date: | 2022–04–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lie:opaper:42&r= |
| By: | Michael Bailey; Drew Johnston; Martin Koenen; Theresa Kuchler; Dominic Russel; Johannes Stroebel |
| Abstract: | We use de-identified data from Facebook to study the social integration of Syrian migrants in Germany, a country that received a large influx of refugees during the Syrian Civil War. We construct measures of migrants’ social integration based on Syrians’ friendship links to Germans, their use of the German language, and their participation in local social groups. We find large variation in Syrians’ social integration across German counties, and use a movers’ research design to document that these differences are largely due to causal effects of place. Regional differences in the social integration of Syrians are shaped both by the rate at which German natives befriend other locals in general (general friendliness) and the relative rate at which they befriend local Syrian migrants versus German natives (relative friending). We follow the friending behavior of Germans that move across locations to show that both general friendliness and relative friending are more strongly affected by place-based effects such as local institutions than by persistent individual characteristics of natives (e.g., attitudes to-ward neighbors or migrants). Relative friending is higher in areas with lower unemployment and more completed government-sponsored integration courses. Using variation in teacher availability as an instrument, we find that integration courses had a substantial causal effect on the social integration of Syrian migrants. We also use fluctuations in the presence of Syrian migrants across high school cohorts to show that natives with quasi-random expo-sure to Syrians in school are more likely to befriend other Syrian migrants in other settings, suggesting that contact between groups can shape subsequent attitudes towards migrants. |
| Keywords: | integration, immigration, social networks, place effects |
| JEL: | F22 J15 K37 D85 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9680&r= |
| By: | Devin Bunten; Ellen Fu; Lyndsey Rolheiser; Christopher Severen |
| Abstract: | How have the longer journeys to work faced by Black commuters evolved in the United States over the last four decades? Black commuters spent 50.3 more minutes commuting per week in 1980 than White commuters; this difference declined to 22.4 minutes per week in 2019. Two factors account for the majority of the difference: Black workers are more likely to commute by transit, and Black workers make up a larger share of the population in cities with long average commutes. Increases in car commuting by Black workers account for nearly one-quarter of the decline in the racialized difference in commute times between 1980 and 2019. Today, commute times have mostly converged (conditional on observables) for car commuters in small- and midsized cities. In contrast, persistent differences in commute times today arise in large, segregated, congested, and — especially — expensive cities, revealing the limits of cars in overcoming entrenched racialization of other factors of commuting. |
| Date: | 2022–04–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:94008&r= |
| By: | David C Maré (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Jacques Poot (Te Ngira: Institute for Population Research, University of Waikato) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we introduce a measure of cultural diversity that takes ‘social difference’ between country of birth and ethnic groups into account. We measure social difference using exploratory factor analysis of subjective identity, attitude and value responses in Aotearoa New Zealand’s 2016 General Social Survey. We examine the level of, and change in, our social difference-based measure of cultural diversity in 31 urban areas between 1976 and 2018, using census data. We compare these patterns with those derived from a standard fractionalisation measure of diversity based on population composition by country of birth and ethnicity. We find that the two diversity measures are highly correlated across the urban areas. Diversity increased everywhere between 1976 and 2018, whether social difference is taken into account or not. However, the social difference-based measure increased much faster than the standard measure in all but one of the urban areas. This suggests that growth in the fractionalisation measure of diversity is likely to have underestimated the trend in experienced social difference. Both measures also show evidence of spatial convergence in diversity: urban areas with low diversity in 1976 – which tended to be in the South Island – exhibited faster increases. Population diversity increased strikingly in Queenstown, which was the 19th most diverse urban area in 1976, in terms of social difference, but second only to Auckland in 2018. |
| Keywords: | Cultural diversity; social difference; fractionalisation; New Zealand; urban |
| JEL: | J15 R23 Z13 |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtu:wpaper:22_04&r= |
| By: | Antonio Di Paolo (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona); Bernat Mallén (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate the effects of geographical exposure to local language training centres in a bilingual urban labour market, the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona, exploiting the implementation of a language policy that provided publicly subsidized language courses for adults. Our variable of interest consists in a measure of spatial availability of language schools that captures potential exposure and its expansion over time. First, we focus on the formation of local language skills, adopting a reduced-form approach. Our results indicate that exposure to language learning opportunities matters for language skills, since individuals residing in neighbourhoods with a higher supply of language centres are more likely to be able to speak and write in Catalan, the local language. The effect is quantitatively modest but very robust to falsification exercises and several sensitivity checks and is strongly heterogeneous in favour of younger individuals born in Catalonia with a low level of education. Second, we analyse whether accessibility to language centres also affects employment, working hours, employment sector, and occupation. The evidence regarding labour market outcomes is inconclusive, possibly due to the fact that the impact of geographical exposure on language skills is too small in size to improve performance in the local labour market. |
| Keywords: | Local language training, Language skills, Bilingualism, Labour market outcomes. JEL classification: I38, J24, R23, Z13 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:202203&r= |
| By: | Wilson, Riley (Brigham Young University) |
| Abstract: | I document a new empirical pattern of internal mobility in the United States. Namely, county-to-county migration and commuting drop off discretely at state borders. People are three times as likely to move to a county 15 miles away, but in the same state, than to move to an equally distant county in a different state. These gaps remain even among neighboring counties or counties in the same commuting zone. Standard economic explanations, which emphasize differences in utility or moving costs, have little explanatory power. Cross-border differences in observables, amenities, state occupational licensing, taxes, or transfer program generosity do not explain this border effect. However, county-to-county social connectedness (as measured by the number of Facebook linkages) follows a similar pattern, and there is suggestive evidence that this is driven by a so-called "home state bias," rather than alternative explanations such as information frictions or network ties. I show that this reluctance to cross state lines has real economic costs, resulting in local labor markets that are less dynamic after negative economic shocks. |
| Keywords: | internal migration, commuting, social networks, border discontinuities |
| JEL: | J6 R1 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15193&r= |
| By: | Emily Hannum; Fan Wang |
| Abstract: | Primary school consolidation--the closure of small community schools or their mergers into larger, better-resourced schools--is emerging as a significant policy response to changing demographics in middle income countries with large rural populations. In China, large-scale consolidation took place in the early 21st century. Because officially-recognized minority populations disproportionately reside in rural and remote areas, minority students were among those at elevated risk of experiencing school consolidation. We analyze heterogeneous effects of consolidation on educational attainment and reported national language ability in China by exploiting variations in closure timing across villages and cohorts captured in a 2011 survey of provinces and autonomous regions with substantial minority populations. We consider heterogeneous treatment effects across groups defined at the intersections of minority status, gender, and community ethnic composition and socioeconomic status. Compared to villages with schools, villages whose schools had closed reported that the schools students now attended were better resourced, less likely to offer minority language of instruction, more likely to have Han teachers, farther away, and more likely to require boarding. Much more than Han youth, ethnic minority youth were negatively affected by closure, in terms of its impact on both educational attainment and written Mandarin facility. However, significant penalties accruing to minority youth occurred only in the poorest villages. Penalties were generally heavier for girls, but in the most ethnically segregated minority villages, boys from minority families were highly vulnerable to closure effects on attainment and written Mandarin facility. Results show that intersections of minority status, gender, and community characteristics can delineate significant heterogeneities in policy impacts. |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2204.01196&r= |
| By: | Pauline Givord (Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE), LIEPP - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire d'évaluation des politiques publiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | This study provides new empirical evidence of birthday effects over a range of educational and socioemotional outcomes. It relies on data from the recent cycles of the Program for International School Assessment (PISA) for six European countries. Age at entry has a significant and sizeable impact on cognitive outcomes for 15-year-old students as measured in PISA. The magnitude of the birthday effects on socioemotional skills varies, but overall the results suggest that those students who enter school relatively younger have more negative relationships with their teachers and peers at school. These students also have lower intrinsic motivation and self-esteem and have less ambitious educational expectations than their peers who entered school older. |
| Keywords: | Birthday effects,PISA,Instrumental variables,socioemotional outcomes |
| Date: | 2021–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03386582&r= |
| By: | Xiaozhou Ding; Christopher Bollinger; Michael Clark; William H. Hoyt |
| Abstract: | In the past fifty years, a voluminous literature estimating the value of schools through capitalization in home prices has emerged. Prior research has identified capitalization using a variety of approaches including discontinuities caused by boundaries. Here, we use changes in school boundaries and the opening of a new school to identify this capitalization. Critical to properly estimating the effect of redistricting is to account for when information on the rezoning is available. We treat the information about the effects of zoning as occurring in three stages: announcement, approval of the zoning plan (map) and implementation. We find significant changes in values for homes redistricted to or from lower-performing schools and we find that this capitalization occurs well before implementation of the redistricting. As we show, failure to account for capitalization occurring before implementation will attenuate and even change the sign of capitalization. |
| Keywords: | property values, hedonics, school quality, school district, difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | D10 I20 R30 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9647&r= |
| By: | Amanda Geller (UC Irvine Department of Criminology, Law and Society); Kristin Turney (UC Irvine Department of Sociology); Sarah Remes (DC Action) |
| Abstract: | Youth with disabilities, especially disabilities with behavioral manifestations, are at high risk for intrusive police contact, as are youth of color. However, most current research cannot identify diagnosis or race/ethnicity as distinct risk factors from socioeconomic and behavioral characteristics. Using the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (N=3,128), we assessed disparities in three measures of youth-police contact by disability status, race/ethnicity, and intersections between the two. Regression models indicated disparities in in-school police contact. Youth diagnosed with Attention-Deficit or Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADD/ADHD) reported more contact than their non-disabled counterparts. The few youth in the sample diagnosed with autism reported relatively little police contact. Within-race/ethnicity disparities by ADD/ADHD diagnosis were largest and most robust among Hispanic girls. Black boys diagnosed with ADD/ADHD, compared to Black boys without diagnoses, were more likely to be stopped at school. They also reported more intrusive contact than White boys with ADD/ADHD diagnoses, suggesting they faced risks associated with both their disability and their race/ethnicity. Findings highlight inequalities in police contact among youth – especially youth of color – with disabilities. Given the repercussions of police contact for health, educational attainment, and further interactions with the justice system, policing may exacerbate inequalities between youth with and without disabilities. |
| Keywords: | Police, Law Enforcement, Youth, Disability |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:crcwel:wp22-01-ff&r= |
| By: | Beecham, Roger; Tait, Caroline; Lovelace, Robin; Yang, Yuanxuan |
| Abstract: | Bikeability, the extent to which a settlement, area or route network enables cycling for everyday travel, is a frequently-cited theme for increasing and diversifying cycling uptake and therefore one that attracts much research attention. Indexes designed to quantify bikeability typically generate a single bikeability value for a single locality. Important to transport planners making infrastructure decisions, however, is how well-connected by bike are pairs of localities. For this it is necessary to estimate the bikeability of plausible routes connecting different parts of a city. We approximate routes for all origin-destination journey pairs cycled in the London Cycle Hire Scheme for 2018 and estimate the bikeability of each route, linking to the newly-released London Cycle Infrastructure Database. We then divide the area of inner London covered by the bikeshare scheme into ‘villages’ and profile how bikeability varies for trips connecting those villages – we call this connected bikeability. Our bikeability scores vary geographically with certain localities in London better connected by bike than others. The highest levels of bikeability coincide with villages that are connected by dedicated cycling infrastructure, whilst lower levels of bikeability are between villages that require crossing the river Thames or navigating central parts of London with dense road networks and limited space for dedicated infrastructure. We demonstrate the usefulness of the index through a data analysis that relates inequalities in connected bikeability to London’s labour market geography. Focussing on potentially cyclable commutes to job-rich villages in London, we evaluate differences in connected bikeability against demand and identify key commutes made by lower-wage non- professional workers that have comparatively low levels of bikeability and that may warrant attention from transport planners. |
| Date: | 2022–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:gbfz8&r= |
| By: | Costas-Fernández, Julián (University College London); Morando, Greta (University College London) |
| Abstract: | This paper offers new evidence of the role of immigration in shaping the educational and labour market outcomes of natives. We use administrative data on the entire English higher education system and exploit the idiosyncratic variation of foreign students within university-degree across four cohorts of undergraduate students. Foreign peers have zero to mild effects on natives' educational outcomes, such as graduation probability and degree classification. Large effects are found on displacement across universities and degree types after enrolment, although these outcomes are rare occurrences. In line with the mild effects on education outcomes, we also find little effect of foreign peers affecting early labour market outcomes of native graduates. |
| Keywords: | peer effects, higher education, immigration |
| JEL: | F22 I21 I23 I24 I26 J15 J24 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15187&r= |
| By: | Desmond Ang; Panka Bencsik; Jesse Bruhn; Ellora Derenoncourt |
| Abstract: | How do high-profile acts of police brutality affect public trust and cooperation with law enforcement? To investigate this question, we develop a new measure of civilian crime reporting that isolates changes in community engagement with police from underlying changes in crime: the ratio of police-related 911 calls to gunshots detected by ShotSpotter technology. Examining detailed data from eight major American cities, we show a sharp drop in both the call-to-shot ratio and 911 call volume immediately after the police murder of George Floyd in May 2020. Notably, reporting rates decreased significantly in both non-white and white neighborhoods across the country. These effects persist for several months, and we find little evidence that they were reversed by the conviction of FloydÕs murderer. Together, the results illustrate how acts of police violence may destroy a key input into effective law enforcement and public safety: civilian engagement and reporting. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bro:econwp:2021-005&r= |
| By: | Ding, Lanlin (Xi’an Jiaotong University); Nie, Peng (Xi’an Jiaotong University); Sousa-Poza, Alfonso (University of Hohenheim) |
| Abstract: | Using longitudinal data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey, we investigate the causal relation between housing conditions (both internal and external) and health among urban adults aged 18+. We find that housing improvement reduces the probability of bad self-reported health by 3.7 percent, with more pronounced impacts among females, older adults, those with lower socioeconomic status (low education and income) and residents of the less developed central and western regions. This beneficial health effect is enhanced by longer treatment periods and consistent across several robustness checks. Housing conditions seemingly operate on health via poor macronutrient intake, physical inactivity, and sleep deprivation. |
| Keywords: | housing conditions, health, difference-in-differences, urban China |
| JEL: | D63 I10 I12 R21 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15168&r= |
| By: | António Afonso; Ana Venâncio |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effect on municipality spending efficiency of a local property tax reform, which reduced in 2008 the upper limit of the property tax. We compute municipality efficiency scores via data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) from 2005 to 2011, and then we rely in a panel data set to estimate how the tax reform affected the efficiency scores. Results of the analysis show that average input efficiency scores declined from 0.575 before the tax reform to 0.488 after the tax reform. This change was transversal to municipalities that reduced the municipal property tax (IMI) and to the ones that maintained the tax rate. In addition, the IMI reform is linked to higher efficiency scores. In other words, the reduction in efficiency ends up being smaller for the municipalities that decreased the IMI tax rate. |
| Keywords: | public spending efficiency, local government, data envelopment analysis (DEA), local property tax reform |
| JEL: | C14 C23 H11 H21 H50 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9538&r= |
| By: | You Suk Kim; Donghoon Lee; Tess C. Scharlemann; James Vickery |
| Abstract: | We study the role of mortgage servicers in implementing the CARES Act mortgage forbearance program during the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite universal eligibility,we document that a significant number of federally backed mortgage borrowers be-come delinquent during the pandemic without successfully entering into a forbearance program, and that the relative frequency of these "missing" forbearances varies significantly across mortgage servicers for otherwise identical loans. Forbearance out-comes are systematically related to servicer characteristics including size, liquidity and organizational form, consistent with the role of economic incentives in shaping servicer behavior. We also use servicer-level variation in forbearance outcomes to estimate the causal effect of forbearance on borrower outcomes. We find that assignment to a "high-forbearance" servicer translates to a significantly higher non-payment rate,and we find evidence that part of this additional household liquidity is used to pay down high-cost credit card debt. |
| Keywords: | Mortgage; Forbearance; Debt relief; CARES Act; COVID-19; Liquidity |
| JEL: | G21 G23 G28 |
| Date: | 2022–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2022-17&r= |
| By: | Benjamin Montmartin (SKEMA Business School, Université Côte-d'Azur); Marcos Herrera-Gómez (IEDLE-UNSa/CONICET) |
| Abstract: | During the last 30 years in France, concerns about healthcare access have grown as physician fees have increased threefold. In this paper, we developed an innovative structural framework to provide new insights into free-billing physician pricing behavior. We test our theoretical framework using a unique geolocalized database covering more than 4,000 private practitioners in three specializations (ophthalmology, gynecology and pediatrics). Our main findings highlight a low price competition environment driven by local imitative pricing between physicians, which increases with competition density. This evidence in the context ofgrowing spatial concentration and an increasing share of free-billing physicians calls for new policies to limitadditional fees. |
| Keywords: | Imitative pricing, Health care access, Local competition, Spatial eects. |
| JEL: | H51 C21 I11 I18 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:123&r= |
| By: | Jason Soria; Shelly Etzioni; Yoram Shiftan; Amanda Stathopoulos; Eran Ben-Elia |
| Abstract: | On-demand mobility platforms play an increasingly important role in urban mobility systems. Impacts are still debated, as these platforms supply personalized and optimized services, while also contributing to existing sustainability challenges. Recently, microtransit services have emerged, promising to combine advantages of pooled on-demand rides with more sustainable fixed-route public transit services. Understanding traveler behavior becomes a primary focus to analyze adoption likelihood and perceptions of different microtransit attributes. The COVID-19 pandemic context adds an additional layer of complexity to analyzing mobility innovation acceptance. This study investigates the potential demand for microtransit options against the background of the pandemic. We use a stated choice experiment to study the decision-making of Israeli public transit and car commuters when offered to use novel microtransit options (sedan vs. passenger van). We investigate the tradeoffs related to traditional fare and travel time attributes, along with microtransit features; namely walking time to pickup location, vehicle sharing, waiting time, minimum advanced reservation time, and shelter at designated boarding locations. Additionally, we analyze two latent constructs: attitudes towards sharing, as well as experiences and risk-perceptions related to the COVID-19 pandemic. We develop Integrated Choice and Latent Variable models to compare the two commuter groups in terms of the likelihood to switch to microtransit, attribute trade-offs, sharing preferences and pandemic impacts. The results reveal high elasticities of several time and COVID effects for car commuters compared to relative insensitivity of transit commuters to the risk of COVID contraction. Moreover, for car commuters, those with strong sharing identities were more likely to be comfortable in COVID risk situations, and to accept microtransit. |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2204.01974&r= |
| By: | Alex Hollingworth; Taylor Jaworski; Carl Kitchens; Ivan Rudik |
| Abstract: | We develop a spatial equilibrium model to evaluate the efficiency and distributional impacts of the leading air quality regulation in the United States: the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). We link our economic model to an integrated assessment model for air pollutants which allows us to capture endogenous changes in emissions, amenities, labor, and production. Our results show that the NAAQS generate over $23 billion of annual welfare gains. This is roughly 80 percent of welfare gains of the second-best NAAQS design, but only 25 percent of the first-best emission pricing policy. The NAAQS benefits are concentrated in a small set of cities, impose substantial costs on manufacturing workers, improve amenities in counties in compliance with the NAAQS, and reduce emissions in compliance counties through general equilibrium channels. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for geographic reallocation and equilibrium responses when quantifying the effects of environmental regulation. |
| Keywords: | Clean Air Act, environmental quality, economic geography |
| JEL: | F18 Q52 Q53 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9644&r= |
| By: | Harrison, Michael; Nakajima, Jouchi; Shabani, Mimoza |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the possible spillover effects of the global and regional crossborder claims of Japanese banks on domestic financial stability. We contribute to the existing literature by constructing a global banking network and applying the Spinglass methodology to detect communities formed within the network. Furthermore, we employ a novel spatial econometric approach, namely, a timevarying spatial autoregressive (SAR) model that captures the evolution of spillover effects over time. Our empirical results point to the dominant role of Japanese banks in the global banking network and the evolution of the East Asian regional banking network. Furthermore, our findings show considerable variation in the degree of influence of both the global and regional banking networks over time. |
| Keywords: | banking networks, spillover effect, spatial autoregression |
| JEL: | C23 G21 F34 R11 |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-120&r= |
| By: | Landaud, Fanny (Norwegian School of Economics); Maurin, Eric (Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of grouping students by prior achievement into different classes (or schools) in settings where students are competing for admission to programs offering only a limited number of places. We first develop a model that identifies the conditions under which the practice of tracking students by prior achievement increases inequalities between students that do not initially have the same academic background, such as may exist between students with different social backgrounds. We then test our model using new data on the competitive entrance exams to elite scientific higher education programs in France. We find that 70% of the inequality in success in these exams between students from different social backgrounds can be explained by the practice of tracking students by prior achievement that prevails during the years of preparation for these exams. |
| Keywords: | ability tracking, competition, higher education, inequalities |
| JEL: | C13 C51 I21 I23 I24 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15157&r= |
| By: | Circella, Giovanni; Sun, Ran; Le, Tho V.; Soza-Parra, Jaime; Qian, Xiaodong; Bunch, David; Jaller, Miguel |
| Abstract: | This project aims to provide recommendations on the methodology and design specifications for the travel demand model to be built for the Link21 program in the Northern California megaregion. The Link21 program is a major rail investment program that will considerably improve and upgrade the passenger rail services in the Northern California megaregion, centered around the Transbay Corridor between Oakland and San Francisco in the San Francisco Bay Area. To support this effort, we reviewed the current and potential travel markets for the Link21 program, assessed the available travel demand models that could be used to support the modeling efforts for the Link21 program, and conducted interviews with experts from academic institutions, metropolitan planning organizations, state and federal agencies, and US DOE national labs. Considering the goals and objectives of the Link21 program, a list of 20 critical, important, and optional modeling features were identified, which should be considered for the Link21 program. We reviewed 11 existing travel demand models based on the evaluation of their modeling features, and present four proposed modeling approaches which could be considered to support the Link21 program. For each modeling approach, we summarize pros and cons in terms of fulfilling the requirements of the Link21 program. The four modeling approaches include: 1) building on the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) TM 2.1 regional travel demand model without a dedicated long-distance travel model component; 2) building on the MTC TM 2.1 regional travel demand model with a dedicated long-distance travel model component; 3) building on the San Francisco County Transportation Authority (SFCTA) regional travel demand model with or without a dedicated long-distance travel model component; and 4) building on the California High Speed Rail (CHSR) or the new statewide rail model that is currently under development. The study also discusses some sources of uncertainties that might affect future travel demand and the modeling practice in the Link21 regions. These include the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on work patterns and activity/travel choices, the introduction of shared mobility services, micromobility, the potential deployment of Mobility as a Service (MaaS) solutions, and the forthcoming deployment of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). Given the complexity of the Link21 program and the requested 18-month timeline for developing a new travel demand model to support the program, we recommend that the model development for the Link21 program build on an existing modeling framework and adopt a modular system, which can be updated over time. An initial model release would become available in the proposed timeline of 18 months, while future updates and improvements in the model components could be added in future model updates. This process also would be well-suited to address eventual modeling issues that could arise with the initial model release, and it would benefit from the development and updates of other models in the Northern California megaregion that are being carried out in parallel. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Transportation Modeling |
| Date: | 2022–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt43t98653&r= |
| By: | Benjamin W. Arold; Ludger Woessmann; Larissa Zierow |
| Abstract: | We study whether compulsory religious education in schools affects students’ religiosity as adults. We exploit the staggered termination of compulsory religious education across German states in models with state and cohort fixed effects. Using three different datasets, we find that abolishing compulsory religious education significantly reduced religiosity of affected students in adulthood. It also reduced the religious actions of personal prayer, church-going, and church membership. Beyond religious attitudes, the reform led to more equalized gender roles, fewer marriages and children, and higher labor-market participation and earnings. The reform did not affect ethical and political values or non-religious school outcomes. |
| Keywords: | religious education, religiosity, school reforms |
| JEL: | Z12 I28 H75 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9504&r= |
| By: | Liu, Xingfei (University of Alberta, Department of Economics); Wang, Chuhong (Yango University); Yan, Zizhong (Jinan University); Zhao, Yi (Tsinghua University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we present causal evidence on the impact of higher education expansion on crime by exploiting a massive expansion of college enrollment in China since 1999, using data from multiple sources. Our identification strategy exploits regional variation in the intensity of the higher education expansion with partially identified difference-in-differences models. We explore various assumptions to account for the potential unparallel trends over years and find that college expansion causally reduces crime rates and the effect changes over time. Moreover, the crime reducing effect extends beyond the post-secondary educational level and into the senior high schools. Our findings document an important yet overlooked positive externality associated with higher education expansion. |
| Keywords: | Higher education expansion; Crime; China; Partial identification |
| JEL: | I20 K42 |
| Date: | 2022–03–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:albaec:2022_002&r= |
| By: | Deiana, Claudio (University of Essex); Giua, Ludovica (European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre); Nistico, Roberto (University of Naples Federico II) |
| Abstract: | This paper establishes a new fact about immigration policies: legalization has long-term effects on formal employment of undocumented immigrants and their assimilation. We exploit the broad amnesty enacted in Italy in 2002 together with rich survey data collected in 2011 on a representative sample of immigrant households to estimate the effect of regularization in the long run. Immigrants who were not eligible for the amnesty have a 14% lower probability of working in the formal sector a decade later, are subject to more severe ethnic segregation on the job and display less linguistic assimilation than their regularized counterparts. |
| Keywords: | undocumented immigrants, amnesty program, formal employment, discrimination, segregation |
| JEL: | J15 J61 K37 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15189&r= |
| By: | Di Feng; Bettina Klaus; Flip Klijn |
| Abstract: | We consider the generalization of the classical Shapley and Scarf housing market model of trading indivisible objects (houses) (Shapley and Scarf, 1974) to so-called multiple-type housing markets (Moulin, 1995). When preferences are separable, the prominent solution for these markets is the coordinate-wise top-trading-cycles (cTTC) mechanism. We first show that on the subdomain of lexicographic preferences, a mechanism is unanimous (or onto), individually rational, strategy-proof, and non-bossy if and only if it is the cTTC mechanism (Theorem 1). Second, using Theorem 1, we obtain a corresponding characterization on the domain of separable preferences (Theorem 2). Finally, we show that on the domain of strict preferences, there is no mechanism satisfying unanimity (or ontoness), individual rationality, strategy-proofness, and non-bossiness (Theorem 3).Our characterization of the cTTC mechanism constitutes the first characterization of an extension of the prominent top-trading-cycles (TTC) mechanism to multiple-type housing markets. |
| Keywords: | : multiple-type housing markets, strategy-proofness, non-bossiness, top-trading-cycles (TTC) mechanism, market design |
| JEL: | C78 D47 |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lau:crdeep:22.06&r= |
| By: | Kristian S. Blickle; João A. C. Santos |
| Abstract: | We document that the quasi-mandatory U.S. flood insurance program reduces mortgage lending along both the extensive and intensive margins. We measure flood insurance mandates using FEMA flood maps, focusing on the discreet updates to these maps that can be made exogenous to true underlying flood risk. Reductions in lending are most pronounced for low-income and low-FICO borrowers, implying that the effects are at least partially driven by the added financial burden of insurance. Our results are also stronger among non-local or more-distant banks, who have a diminished ability to monitor local borrower adherence to complicated insurance mandates. Overall, our findings speak to the unintended consequences of (well-intentioned) regulation. They also speak to the importance of factoring in affordability and enforcement feasibility when introducing mandatory standards. |
| Keywords: | insurance; unintended consequences; regulation; FEMA maps; flooding; mortgage lending; access to credit |
| JEL: | G21 G28 Q5 Q54 |
| Date: | 2022–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:94007&r= |
| By: | Petit, Gillian; Cameron, Anna; Khanal, Mukesh; Tedds, Lindsay M. |
| Abstract: | Once limited and relatively unknown, Alberta’s short-term rental (STR) market has, in the past five years, become a frequent discussion topic in news media and municipal council chambers alike. Facilitated by the arrival of online platforms, such as Airbnb, the now-thriving STR market is viewed as an economic boon by some, but has also stoked longstanding debates about housing access and resident liveability, provoking newer complaints of anti-competitive behaviour, as well as general calls for regulatory intervention. In the context of limited research on Alberta’s STR market (and its regulation), this paper presents a comprehensive overview and analysis of regulatory frameworks for STR activity in six Alberta municipalities, alongside an assessment of pertinent provincial measures. The aim of the review is two-fold: (1) to gain an understanding of the nature and extent of regulatory efforts across a range of local contexts that, together, constitute a representative picture of the overall market in the province; and (2) to ascertain the extent to which these approaches are both effective and appropriate, based on what can be discerned about local context, market dynamics, policy objectives, and current and emerging issues. We argue that while some jurisdictions appear to have fared better in implementing generally appropriate and effective measures, all local authorities, in addition to the province, have considerable room to improve their framework. We draw particular attention to ensuring regulations are developed in response to local issues, reflect the actual and projected state of the market, contain clear and measurable objectives aligned with broader community strategies, and invite ways for local authorities to leverage the power, insights, and resources of platforms. |
| Keywords: | short-term rentals; Airbnb; regulatory approaches; municipal policy |
| JEL: | H70 R00 R29 R38 Z00 |
| Date: | 2022–04–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:112671&r= |
| By: | Emily Hannum; Xiaoying Liu; Fan Wang |
| Abstract: | Global trends of fertility decline, population aging, and rural outmigration are creating pressures to consolidate school systems, with the rationale that economies of scale will enable higher quality education to be delivered in an efficient manner, despite longer travel distances for students. Yet, few studies have considered the implications of system consolidation for educational access and inequality, outside of the context of developed countries. We estimate the impact of educational infrastructure consolidation on educational attainment using the case of China's rural primary school closure policies in the early 2000s. We use data from a large household survey covering 728 villages in 7 provinces, and exploit variation in villages' year of school closure and children's ages at closure to identify the causal impact of school closure. For girls exposed to closure during their primary school ages, we find an average decrease of 0.60 years of schooling by 2011, when children's mean age was 17 years old. Negative effects strengthen with time since closure. For boys, there is no corresponding significant effect. Different effects by gender may be related to greater sensitivity of girls' enrollment to distance and greater responsiveness of boys' enrollment to quality. |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2203.17101&r= |
| By: | Jiang, Xuan (Ohio State University); Kennedy, Kendall (Mississippi State University); Zhong, Jiatong (University of Alberta, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In 1978, China opened its door to the outside world. This study investigates how the Open Door Policy affected the educational choices of workers born 1960-1970. Using measures of local labor markets' export exposure, we find the Open Door Policy decreased educational attainment; youths born from 1965-70 facing the mean export exposure were 5.6-13.3 p.p. less likely to complete high school than those born in 1960. Our findings suggest a complicated relationship between Chinese human capital accumulation and economic growth during the industrialization of the 1980s and 1990s, as the Open Door Policy reduced skilled labor in the most export-exposed regions. |
| Keywords: | Open Door Policy; educational attainment; high school completion |
| JEL: | F16 I20 J20 O15 |
| Date: | 2022–03–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:albaec:2022_007&r= |
| By: | Kaaresvirta, Juuso; Kerola, Eeva; Nuutilainen, Riikka |
| Abstract: | China's real estate and construction sector has served as a major engine of economic growth in recent decades and the sector now plays an oversized role in the economy. Much of that growth has been debt-fuelled, with the indebtedness of developers climbing to unprecedented levels. After officials turned off the money spigot last year, housing markets cooled and a wave of financial difficulties washed over builders during autumn 2021. The entire sector found itself under heavy stress, and in December two major developers, Evergrande and Kaisa, defaulted on their offshore debt. In this brief, we consider the current conditions in China's real estate and construction sector and how a possible sectoral crisis could spread to the national economy and the euro area. While the direct financial impacts on the euro area's financial sector is likely to be minor, China's real estate sector problems could spill over widely into the domestic real economy and thereby increase uncertainty internationally. In such case, the indirect impacts on the euro area could be severe. |
| Keywords: | China,risks,real estate sector,construction,economy,economic growth |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:132021&r= |
| By: | Jones, Calvin |
| Abstract: | Although three centuries of industrialisation and growth have led to unimaginably better lives for most people, economic and health outcomes differ widely across places, both between and within polities. We suggest that understanding these differences requires considering the role of ‘placeless’ agents in shaping places – here, subnational regions. Prior economic development and globalisation have rewarded and empowered placeless agents: firms, people and institutions which rely for wellbeing, identity and profits not on a specific place, but rather on a type or types of place. Their mobility and lack of embeddedness means interactions with specific places is functionally narrow, voluntary, self-interested, and hence potentially problematic for embedded actors, and for the health and viability of the places within which they operate. We look to operationalise this concept by developing notions of economic, socio-cultural and civic placelessness, and reflect on how the power of the placeless may shape local responses to critical challenges. |
| Date: | 2022–04–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:hzfk9&r= |
| By: | Josue Ortega; Thilo Klein |
| Abstract: | How should students be assigned to schools? Two mechanisms have been suggested and implemented around the world: deferred acceptance (DA) and top trading cycles (TTC). These two mechanisms are widely considered excellent choices owing to their outstanding stability and incentive properties. We show theoretically and empirically that both mechanisms perform poorly with regard to two key desiderata such as efficiency and equality, even in large markets. In contrast, the rank-minimizing mechanism is significantly more efficient and egalitarian. It is also Pareto optimal for the students, unlike DA, and generates less justified envy than TTC. |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2204.07255&r= |
| By: | Su-Min; Alexandru |
| Abstract: | Why has geographical political polarisation increased in recent times? We propose a theoretical social learning mechanism whereby policy preferences become more homogeneous within geographical units, yet increasingly heterogeneous between units over time as voters become better informed on the views of those in their vicinity. To study our model’s predictions, we exploit the delayed implementation of Brexit and its salience in the elections following the 2016 referendum. Analysing constituency-level longitudinal-data, we find that voters updated their Brexit views after observing the referendum’s local results, and acted upon their new beliefs in the following elections. We document a two percentage-point relative decrease in the (anti-Brexit) Liberal Democrat vote share in constituencies where Leave narrowly won, mirrored by an increase for the Conservatives. Our findings have implications for how group-based identities form more broadly. |
| Keywords: | Elections, Brexit, Local Contextual Effects, Information, Social Learning, Political Attitudes |
| JEL: | D71 D72 |
| Date: | 2022–04–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2227&r= |
| By: | Keagile Lesame (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Geoffrey Ngene (Stetson School of Business and Economics, Mercer University, Georgia 31207, USA); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Elie Bouri (School of Business, Lebanese American University, Lebanon) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether investors in international Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) markets engage in herding behaviour due to the economic uncertainty induced by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Using a comprehensive sample of 27 countries encompassing both developed and emerging markets, the results show consistent evidence of herding formation in international REITs markets based on both static and time-varying estimates. International herding is mainly driven by herding in developed market REITs. Further analysis provides a direct evidence showing that herding in REITs markets during the pandemic resulted from the economic uncertainty brought on by the global health crisis. A quantile-on-quantile regression reveals that higher uncertainty associated with COVID-19 pandemic intensifies herding. |
| Keywords: | International REITs, Herding, COVID-19, Quantile-on-Quantile Regression, Probit Model |
| JEL: | C22 R3 |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202218&r= |
| By: | Leishman, Chris; Aminpour, Fatemeh; Baker, Emma; Beer, Andrew; Crowe, Adam; Goodall, Zoë; Horton, Ella; Jacobs, Keith; Lester, Laurence; Maclennan, Duncan |
| Abstract: | This research reviewed Australia’s COVID-19 housing policy responses to better understand their intervention approach, underlying logic, short and long term goals, target groups and level of success. |
| Date: | 2022–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:yef47&r= |
| By: | Chen, Mingyu (Amazon); Howell, Jessica; Smith, Jonathan (Georgia State University) |
| Abstract: | Recent immigration policies have created massive uncertainty for international students to obtain F-1 visas. Yet, before the COVID-19 pandemic, student visa applicants already faced an approximately 27 percent refusal rate that varies by time and region. Using data on the universe of SAT takers between 2004 and 2015 matched with college enrollment records, we examine how the anticipated F-1 visa restrictiveness influences US undergraduate enrollment outcomes of international students. Using an instrumental variables approach, we find that a higher anticipated F-1 student visa refusal rate decreases the number of international SAT takers, decreases the probability of sending SAT scores to US colleges, and decreases international student enrollment in the US. The decreases are larger among international students with higher measured academic achievement. We also document academic achievement of international students and show that over 40 percent of high-scoring international SAT takers do not pursue US college education. |
| Keywords: | Immigration policy, migration, international student, F-1 visa, student visa, China |
| JEL: | I21 I23 F22 J15 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15184&r= |
| By: | Alejandro del Valle; Tess C. Scharlemann; Stephen H. Shore |
| Abstract: | Hurricane Harvey brought more than four feet of rainfall to the Houston area in August 2017, leading to substantial flooding in many areas. Using regulatory data with detailed information on borrowing terms, we compare the borrowing response to Hurricane Harvey in parts of Houston that were more and less affected by flooding. We find that hurricane-affected households borrowed in a price-sensitive and time-limited manner, relying almost exclusively on promotional-rate credit cards and mortgage forbearance for new credit and repaying balances quickly. We find that conditional on flooding, households in FEMA-designated floodplains borrowed less. Within the floodplain, building code changes that required homes to be elevated above the floodplain dramatically reduced households’ storm-related liquidity use. Flooded borrowers in homes subject to this type of physical hardening used forbearance at the same rate as borrowers who did not experience flooding, suggesting that for natural disasters, ex ante physical hardening is a substitute for ex post credit. |
| Keywords: | Forbearance; Household behavior; Mortgages and credit; Natural disaster |
| JEL: | Q54 D14 G22 H84 |
| Date: | 2022–03–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2022-15&r= |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Many education systems aim to provide learning opportunities to all students regardless of their backgrounds in order for them to realise their potential. Education systems are expected to break down barriers to social mobility. However, too often, children are not given enough opportunities to succeed, to pursue their interests, or to develop their skills. Individual circumstances over which students have no control often affect the quality of the schooling they receive and the educational path they choose. They also influence students’ development of attitudes and dispositions toward learning, and can shape students’ dreams for their future. Differences in opportunities for students often result in achievement gaps among students with different backgrounds. Over the last 20 years, PISA has shown that students’ socio-economic status, which includes parents’ occupations and educational levels and home possessions, are predictors of performance scores in reading, mathematics and science in all countries and economies participating in PISA. So far, this has been without a single exception. This policy brief points to key aspects to consider in providing students with needed opportunities to level the playing field for all students and achieve greater equity in education beyond the exigencies of the pandemic. |
| JEL: | I24 |
| Date: | 2022–04–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduddd:117-en&r= |
| By: | Mocan, Naci (Louisiana State University); Osborne-Christenson, Eric (Pace University) |
| Abstract: | We provide the first analysis of racial in-group bias in Type-I and Type-II errors. Using player-referee matched data from NBA games we show that there is no overall racial bias or in-group bias in foul calls made by referees. Similarly, there is no racial bias or in-group bias in Type-I errors (incorrect foul calls). On the other hand, there is significant in-group favoritism in Type-II errors. These are wrongful acquittals where the referee did not blow the whistle although a foul was committed. We also analyze peer effects and find that black referees' proclivity to make Type-II errors in favor of black players exists as long black referees have at least one black peer referee on the court, and that the bias disappears only if black referees have two white peers. In case of white referees, in-group favoritism in Type-II errors emerges if white referees have two black peers with them on the court. We provide evidence showing that the results are not attributable to skill differences between referees. We also show that a higher Type-I error rate during the season lowers referees' probability to be selected to officiate a game in the playoffs, whereas variations in the rate of Type-II errors have no impact on the likelihood of a playoff assignment. These results indicate that in-group favoritism takes place in a domain which is not costly (making Type-II errors), and that bias is eliminated when it is costly to the decisionmaker. |
| Keywords: | racial bias, judicial decisions, in-group bias, Type-I error, Type-II error, peers, incentives |
| JEL: | K J71 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15195&r= |
| By: | Ladislav Mura (Pan-European University); Zuzana Hajduová (University of Economics in Bratislava) |
| Abstract: | The problem of identifying and quantifying the efficiency of accommodation units is currently a discussed issue. Recognition and identification of the most important aspects that increase the financial efficiency of a rapidly changing business environment, especially in a difficult period of economic and tourism bounce back is a key issue. Only the companies that adequately address the issue of their measurement and evaluation and are able to choose the right approach in this regard will win the competition. Our work focuses on the identification of key factors influencing the management of business entities. We carried out a detailed analysis of accommodation units in selected accommodation facilities at the regional level. We wanted to point out the differences within the individual regions of Slovakia. By applying the DEA method, we used individual models focused on inputs and outputs in order to determine the inefficient units in our research, and revealed its shortcomings and pointed out the way to improve the economic results of these research subjects. |
| Keywords: | DEA,models,correlation,regions,small and medium enterprises |
| Date: | 2021–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03583940&r= |
| By: | Nathalie Fabry (DICEN-IDF - Dispositifs d'Information et de Communication à l'Ère du Numérique - Paris Île-de-France - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - HESAM - HESAM Université - Université Gustave Eiffel); Sylvain Zeghni (LVMT - Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Gustave Eiffel) |
| Date: | 2022–01–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03557722&r= |
| By: | El Mehdi Er Raqabi; Wenkai Li (IUJ Research Institutey, International University of Japan) |
| Abstract: | Electric vehicles (EVs), with lighter environmental footprint than traditional gasoline vehicles, are growing rapidly worldwide. Some countries such as Norway and Canada have successfully established EV networks and achieved a significant progress towards EV deployment. While the EV technology is becoming popular in developed countries, emerging countries are lacking behind mainly because of the huge investment hurdle to establishing EV networks. This paper developed an efficient Electric Vehicle Migration Framework (EVMF) aiming to minimize the total costs involved in establishing an EV network, using real world data from three major cities of Morocco: Rabat, Casablanca, and Fes. A given set of public institutions having a fleet of EVs are first grouped into zones based on clustering algorithms. MILP (Mixed Integer Linear Programming) models are developed to optimally select EV charging station locations within these organizations, with an objective to minimize the total cost. This paper can help to minimize the investment needed to establish EV networks. The transition towards EV networks can first take place in cities, especially at public institutions, followed by locations among cities. With the framework developed in this paper, policy makers can make better decisions on EV network migration. |
| Keywords: | Electric vehicle, range anxiety, public transport, optimization, MILP, data mining, remote sensing, clustering. |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iuj:wpaper:ems_2022_03&r= |
| By: | Jo Blanden; Matthias Doepke; Jan Stuhler |
| Abstract: | This chapter provides new evidence on educational inequality and reviews the literature on the causes and consequences of unequal education. We document large achievement gaps between children from different socio-economic backgrounds, show how patterns of educational inequality vary across countries, time, and generations, and establish a link between educational inequality and social mobility. We interpret this evidence from the perspective of economic models of skill acquisition and investment in human capital. The models account for different channels underlying unequal education and highlight how endogenous responses in parents' and children's educational investments generate a close link between economic inequality and educational inequality. Given concerns over the extended school closures during the Covid-19 pandemic, we also summarize early evidence on the impact of the pandemic on children's education and on possible long-run repercussions for educational inequality. |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2204.04701&r= |
| By: | James Malley; Apostolis Philippopoulos; Jim Malley |
| Abstract: | This paper quantitatively assesses the macroeconomic effects of the recently agreed U.S. bipartisan infrastructure spending bill in a neoclassical growth model. We add to the literature by considering a more detailed tax structure, different types of infrastructure spending and linkages between the final and intermediate goods sectors. We find that infrastructure spending cannot fully pay for itself despite public and private capital being underprovided. We further find long-run output multipliers above unity if infrastructure spending and rising public debt are financed by consumption, dividend and labour income taxes and below one for corporate taxes. We also show that except for the consumption tax, the size of the multipliers critically depends on the Frisch labour supply elasticity. Finally, when we compute differences in welfare across different public financing regimes, the net welfare gains and losses are relatively minor. |
| Keywords: | infrastructure investment, public capital, fiscal multipliers, taxation |
| JEL: | E62 H41 H54 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9530&r= |
| By: | Sutton, Katrina; Hardman, Scott; Tal, Gil |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates strategies to increase charging station utilization, reduce congestion, and increase access to chargers at workplaces. Interviews with plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) drivers across California revealed three styles of workplace charging management: authoritative (rules introduced by the employer), collective (rules introduced by employees), and unmanaged (no rules in place). Authoritative charging included digital queuing, time limits with pricing, pricing, and valet charging. Collective management included day restrictions, time restrictions, messaging groups, and spreadsheets with driver information. Charging management strategies can increase accessibility and utilization of stations by reducing congestion, increasing vehicle throughput and discouraging those that do not need to charge from doing so. Workplaces with charging management may need less charging infrastructure to support more PEVs. Interviewees reported positive experiences with the charging management strategies at their workplaces. Charging management strategies appear to be a user-friendly approach to reducing charge point congestion, vehicles overstaying, and increase utilization of workplace charging. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Traffic Congestion, Electric Vehicle Charging, Charging Behavior |
| Date: | 2022–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt2345r48k&r= |
| By: | Whitehouse, E. J. (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, UK); Harvey, D. I. (School of Economics, University of Nottingham); Leybourne, S. J. (School of Economics, University of Nottingham) |
| Abstract: | Given the financial and economic damage that can be caused by the collapse of an asset price bubble, it is of critical importance to rapidly detect the onset of a crash once a bubble has been identified. We develop a real-time monitoring procedure for detecting a crash episode in a time series. We adopt an autoregressive framework, with the bubble and crash regimes modelled by explosive and stationary dynamics respectively. The first stage of our approach is to monitor for the presence of a bubble; conditional on having detected a bubble, we monitor for a crash in real time as new data emerges. Our crash detection procedure employs a statistic based on the different signs of the means of the first differences associated with explosive and stationary regimes, and critical values are obtained using a training period, over which no bubble or crash is assumed to occur. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that our recommended procedure has a well-controlled false positive rate during a bubble regime, while also allowing very rapid detection of a crash when one occurs. Application to the US housing market demonstrates the efficacy of our procedure in rapidly detecting the house price crash of 2006. |
| Keywords: | Real-time monitoring; Bubble; Crash; Explosive autoregression; Stationary autoregression |
| JEL: | C12 C22 G01 |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2022007&r= |
| By: | Priyank Lathwal; Parth Vaishnav; M. Granger Morgan |
| Abstract: | PM2.5 produced by freight trucking has significant adverse impacts on human health. Here we explore the spatial distribution of freight trucking emissions and demonstrate that public health impacts due to freight trucking disproportionately affect certain racial and ethnic groups. Based on the US federal government data, we build an emissions inventory to quantify heterogeneity of trucking emissions and find that ~10% of NOx and ~12% of CO2 emissions from all sources in the US come from freight trucks. The costs to human health and the environment due to NOx, PM2.5, SO2, and CO2 from freight trucking in the US are estimated respectively to be $11B, $5.5B, $100M, and $30B (social cost of carbon of $51 per ton). We demonstrate that more freight pollution occurs in counties and census tracts with a higher proportion of Black and Hispanic residents. Counties with a higher proportion of Black and Hispanic residents are also more likely to be net importers of pollution damages from other counties. |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2204.06588&r= |
| By: | Nada Endrissat (Bern University of Applied Sciences, Business School); Aurélie Leclercq Vandelannoitte (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Mobile and network technologies enable new ways of working (NWW) that disrupt spatial relations and move work to spaces outside formal organizational boundaries. This article addresses this shift by examining how everyday practices of technology and space come together in the constitution of coworking spaces (CWS) as pronounced example of where NWW take place. Conceptually, the article links research on technology as sociomaterial practice with literature on the production of space. Empirically, it draws from a qualitative study of 25 CWS and offers a theorization of the co-constitutive processes with relevant insights for both technology and organization studies. First, the article adds to research on the relational and dialectic nature of technology by documenting its implication in the constitution of CWS as site, contestation, and atmosphere. Second, it contributes to existing knowledge on space by shifting the focus from physical sites to spatial atmospheres and vibes that are produced through technology use and the co-presence of bodies. It problematizes engagement with NWW by highlighting how the flexibility to work anytime, anywhere is tied to new responsibilities including spacing work (the creation of productive and social spaces of work) and spatial selfmanagement, which requires workers to aptly navigate different sites and vibes in their quest to achieve personal productivity and affective sociality. |
| Keywords: | selfmanagement,coworking space,atmosphere,space,technology,new ways of working |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03332209&r= |
| By: | Julián Martínez-Iriarte (UC Santa Cruz); Gabriel Montes-Rojas (UBA/CONICET); Yixiao Sun (UC San Diego) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes an extension of the unconditional quantile regression analysis to (i) location-scale shifts, and (ii) compensated shifts. The first case is intended to study a counterfactual policy analysis aimed at increasing not only the mean or location of a covariate but also its dispersion or scale. The compensated shift refers to a situation where a shift in a covariate is compensated at a certain rate by another covariate. Not accounting for these possible scale or compensated effects will result in an incorrect assessment of the potential policy effects on the quantiles of an outcome variable. More general interventions and compensated shifts are also considered. The unconditional policy parameters are estimated with simple semiparametric estimators, for which asymptotic properties are studied. Monte Carlo simulations are implemented to study their finite sample performances, and the proposed approach is applied to a Mincer equation to study the effects of a location-scale shift in education on the unconditional quantiles of wages. |
| Keywords: | Quantile regression, unconditional policy effect, unconditional regression |
| JEL: | J01 J31 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:127&r= |
| By: | Giulio Cornelli; Jon Frost; Leonardo Gambacorta; Julapa Jagtiani |
| Abstract: | Small business lending (SBL) plays an important role in funding productive investment and fostering local economic growth. Recently, nonbank lenders have gained market share in the SBL market in the United States, especially relative to community banks. Among nonbanks, fintech lenders have become particularly active, leveraging alternative data for their own internal credit scoring. We use proprietary loan-level data from two fintech SBL platforms (Funding Circle and LendingClub) to explore the characteristics of loans originated pre-pandemic (2016‒2019). Our results show that fintech SBL platforms lent more in zip codes with higher business bankruptcy filings and higher unemployment rates. Moreover, fintech platforms’ internal credit scores were able to predict future loan performance more accurately than the traditional approach to credit scoring. Using Y-14M loan-level bank data, we also compare fintech SBL with traditional bank business cards in terms of credit access and interest rates. Overall, fintech lenders have a potential to create a more inclusive financial system, allowing small businesses that were less likely to receive credit through traditional lenders to access credit and to do so at lower cost. |
| Keywords: | peer-to-peer (P2P) lending; marketplace lending; small business lending (SBL); Funding Circle; LendingClub; alternative data; credit access; credit scoring; fintech credit |
| JEL: | G18 G21 G28 L21 |
| Date: | 2022–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:94103&r= |
| By: | Arianna Martinelli; Julia Mazzei; Daniele Moschella |
| Abstract: | The recent surge of patent disputes plays an important role in discouraging firms from entering new technology domains (TDs). Using a large-scale dataset combining data from the EPO-PATSTAT database and ORBIS-IP and containing patents applied at EPO between 2000 and 2015, we construct a new measure of litigiousness using patent opposition data. We find that the degree of litigiousness and the density of patent thickets negatively affect the likelihood of firms entering new TDs. Across technologies, the frequency of oppositions discourages firms mostly in high-tech industries. Across firms, the risk of opposition falls disproportionately on small rather than large firms. Finally, for large firms, we observe a sort of learning-by-being-opposed effect. This evidence suggests that litigiousness and hold-up potential discourage firms from entering new TDs, shaping Schumpeterian patterns of innovation characterized by a stable number of large-established firms and a lower degree of turbulence. |
| Keywords: | Patent opposition; Technological entry; Innovation Strategies. |
| Date: | 2022–05–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2022/12&r= |
| By: | Tinna Laufey Ásgeirsdóttir; Gisli Gylfason; Gylfi Zoega |
| Abstract: | We use a change in Iceland’s education system as a natural experiment to measure the effect of years spent in upper secondary school on subsequent first year outcomes at university. The duration of Iceland´s upper-secondary education was shortened by one year through compression of the curriculum. The study benefits from a large variation in the age within both the treatment and the control groups, allowing us to separate the effects of shorter upper-secondary education from the effect of age when university studies are initiated. We find that shorter upper-secondary education, three years instead of the previous four, leads to first-year university students completing fewer credits, getting a lower average grade in completed courses, and being more likely to drop out. Results indicate that the effects are partly explained by the age at university enrollment. This applies particularly to women while men are adversely affected even when age is accounted for. |
| Keywords: | years of schooling, upper-secondary school, university grades |
| JEL: | I21 I26 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9613&r= |
| By: | Nirav Mehta (University of Western Ontario) |
| Abstract: | This paper views teacher quality through the human capital perspective. Teacher quality exhibits substantial growth over teachers’ careers, but why it improves is not well understood. I use a human capital production function nesting On-the-Job-Training (OJT) and Learning-by-Doing (LBD) and experimental variation from Glewwe et al. (2010), a teacher incentive pay experiment in Kenya, to discern the presence and relative importance of these forces. The identified set for the OJT and LBD components has a closed-form solution, which depends on experimentally estimated average treatment effects. The results provide evidence of an LBD component, as well as an informative upper bound on the OJT component. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwo:uwowop:20221&r= |
| By: | Faisal Mehmood (HUST - Huazhong University of Science and Technology [Wuhan]); Muhammad Atique (HUST - Huazhong University of Science and Technology [Wuhan]); Wang Bing (HUST - Huazhong University of Science and Technology [Wuhan]); Hameed Khan (KUST - Kohat University of Science and Technology); Henna Henna (KUST - Kohat University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, for the first time, we investigate the relationship between infrastructure and sectoral distribution of FDI inflow in China. We use the Estimating Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) procedures of estimation. To unmask the shortcomings in the previous literature, we use a composite index of infrastructure with more than 30 indicators. The results show that there is a long-run relationship between sectoral FDI and infrastructure. A bidirectional causal relationship is confirmed by using VECM. However, we find unidirectional causality between the primary sector's FDI and infrastructure, and it is running from infrastructure to primary sector FDI. The inclusion of control variables, e.g., institutional quality, trade openness, and domestic investment, is robust in our analysis. The positive role of infrastructure in the sectoral distribution of FDI inflows is of utmost importance for policymakers and Chinese-government. Several policy implications are given in our study. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure,foreign direct investment,Estimating Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) |
| Date: | 2021–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03583884&r= |
| By: | Lisa J. Dettling; Sarena F. Goodman; Sarah Reber |
| Abstract: | Borrowing for education has increased rapidly in the past several decades, such that the majority of non-housing debt on US households' balance sheets is now student loan debt. This chapter analyzes the implications of student loan borrowing for later-life economic well-being, with a focus on retirement preparation. We demonstrate that families holding student loan debt later in life have less savings than their similarly educated peers without such debt. However, these comparisons are misleading if the goal is to characterize the experience of the typical student borrower, as they fail to account for student borrowers who already paid off their debt. We develop strategies to locate families that ever financed their education with student loans in two large datasets which enables us to draw more meaningful comparisons. We find that student loan borrowers roughly follow the earnings, saving, and wealth trajectories of other college-educated families into late-career ages and are much better off financially than those that did not attend college. |
| Keywords: | College; Retirement; Saving; Student loan debt; Survey of consumer finances; Wealth |
| JEL: | G51 J26 J24 E21 I22 |
| Date: | 2022–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2022-19&r= |
| By: | Adetayo Adeniran (FUTA - Federal University of Technology of Akure); Samuel Olorunfemi (FUTA - Federal University of Technology of Akure); Feyisola Akinsehinwa (FUTA - Federal University of Technology of Akure); Taye Abdullahi (University of Ibadan) |
| Abstract: | The transportation of human beings from one location to the other could play a crucial role in the transmission of infectious diseases which could result in a major epidemic such as Tuberculosis, Ebola, Covid-19, and others that are currently invading the nations of the world. Concerning the high poverty level, much concentration on livestock farming, open grazing, rising urbanization, and globalization, the human being is exposed to more infectious diseases that can be transited and transmitted. The transmission of infectious diseases can be in the form of a chain; some are imported from high-risk countries and contacted by friends and families which will later spread into the larger society. It can also be contacted through imported livestock which will later spread among other animals and be contacted by a human. Importation of infectious diseases is not only applicable to humans but animals. Findings from the empirical studies reviewed show that a close nexus between urban mobility and the transmission of infectious diseases. To ensure adequate health safety, it is recommended that regional as well as international complementarity of trade should be checked such that high-risk countries should be banned from participating in trade with other low-risk countries; preventive measures should be enforced without any form of sentiment, human being should minimize or reduce traveling. |
| Keywords: | urban mobility,transportation,transmission,infectious diseases |
| Date: | 2021–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03583997&r= |
| By: | Pallavi Choudhuri (National Council of Applied Economic Research); Santanu Pramanik (National Council of Applied Economic Research); Sonalde Desai (National Council of Applied Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic, and the consequent nationwide lockdown in India that began on March 25, 2020, caused a major disruption in the labour market, leading to the widespread loss of livelihoods and food insecurity. The findings from a telephonic survey of a representative sample of more than 3,000 households in the National Capital Region (NCR) also reveal a dramatic loss in earning capacity. The place of residence and occupation mediated the impact of the lockdown, with greater vulnerabilities witnessed amongst those engaged in informal employment, especially in urban areas. The Government rolled out a series of welfare measures in response to the widespread economic distress, with the provision of free foodgrains and cash transfers aimed at rehabilitating those who were the most affected. While the use of prior social registries enabled quick disbursement, our analysis points to the presence of unmet need, with such exclusion being exacerbated in the urban areas. The findings also reveal that the likelihood of receiving benefits increases with improvements in targeting at the local level and is vital for building social registries. |
| Keywords: | Informal Employment, Income, Social Protection, COVID-19, India |
| JEL: | I38 J21 O17 |
| Date: | 2022–03–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:135&r= |
| By: | Patrick Bigler; Doina Maria Radulescu |
| Abstract: | We analyze welfare implications of policies promoting environmentally friendly vehicles employing rich Swiss micro-data on 23,000 newly purchased cars and their buyers. Our estimates reveal substantial income heterogeneity in price elasticity and electric vehicle (EV) adoption. While CO2 levies secure road financing revenue, emissions of the new car fleet only slightly decrease. In contrast, subsidies support EV uptake, and lead to a more pronounced emission reduction. Both instruments have redistributive implications. We compute optimal subsidy - fuel tax combinations subject to a pre-specified EV target and to securing road financing in the presence or absence of equity concerns. |
| Keywords: | electric vehicles, mixed logit, welfare, fuel tax, subsidies, CO2 emissions |
| JEL: | C25 D12 H23 L62 Q48 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9645&r= |
| By: | Nguyen, Ha Trong; Christian, Hayley; Le, Huong Thu; Connelly, Luke; Zubrick, Stephen R.; Mitrou, Francis |
| Abstract: | The relationship between physical activity and child health and development is well-documented, yet the extant literature provides limited causal insight into the amount of physical activity considered optimal for improving any given health or developmental outcome. This paper exploits exogenous variations in local weather conditions observed across random time use diary dates for the same individuals over time to investigate the causal impact of physical activity on a comprehensive set of health, non-cognitive development, and academic outcomes of children and adolescents. Applying an individual fixed-effects instrumental variables model to a nationally representative panel dataset from Australia, we find that physical activity leads to widespread benefits in child development. These include improved health, social and emotional development, and lower health expenditure. The results further indicate that physical activity offers greater developmental benefits for females. However, we find no evidence that physical activity improves academic performance. Our study highlights that the "optimal" amount of time that children and adolescents should spend physically active each day varies by the health or non-cognitive development outcome of interest. The results are robust to a series of specification and sensitivity tests, including an over-identification test and controlling for weather conditions recorded on the day when development outcomes were assessed. |
| Keywords: | Time Allocation,Physical Activity,Time Use Diary,Health,Child Development,Instrumental variable,Panel data |
| JEL: | C36 I10 I12 I14 J13 J22 J24 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1081&r= |
| By: | Naroa Coretti Sanchez; Luis Alonso Pastor; Kent Larson |
| Abstract: | Autonomous bicycles have recently been proposed as a new and more efficient approach to bicycle-sharing systems (BSS), but the corresponding environmental implications remain unresearched. Conducting environmental impact assessments at an early technological stage is critical to influencing the design and, ultimately, environmental impacts of a system. Consequently, this paper aims to assess the environmental impact of autonomous shared bikes compared with current station-based and dockless systems under different sets of modeling hypotheses and mode-shift scenarios. The results indicate that autonomy could reduce the environmental impact per passenger kilometer traveled of current station-based and dockless BSS by 33.1 % and 58.0 %. The sensitivity analysis shows that the environmental impact of autonomous shared bicycles will mainly depend on vehicle usage rates and the need for infrastructure. Finally, this study highlights the importance of targeting the mode replacement from more polluting modes, especially as traditional mobility modes decarbonize and become more efficient. |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2202.12405&r= |