nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2022‒05‒02
71 papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Migration, Agglomeration and Attractiveness of Cities in China By Xubei Luo; Nong Zhu
  2. The donut effect of Covid-19 on cities By Bloom, Nicholas; Ramani, Arjun
  3. Social Networks and Spatial Mobility: Evidence from Facebook in India By Harshil Sahai; Mike Bailey
  4. A SALT on Real Estate? Housing Market and Migration Responses to the Limit on the State and Local Tax Deduction By Donald Bruce; Lawrence M. Kessler
  5. On not being Dubai: infrastructures of urban cultural policy in Istanbul & Beirut By Centner, Ryan
  6. Making Norway’s housing more affordable and sustainable By Ben Conigrave; Philip Hemmings
  7. Neighborhoods, Perceived Inequality, and Preferences for Redistribution :Evidence from Barcelona By Gerard Domenech Arumi
  8. Why have house prices risen so much more than rents in superstar cities By Hilber, Christian A. L.; Mense, Andreas
  9. Micro-geographic property price and rent indices By Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M.; Heblich, Stephan; Seidel, Tobias
  10. Mapping evolving population geography in China By Lei Dong; Rui Du; Yu Liu
  11. Measuring the Impact of Taxes and Public Services on Property Values: A Double Machine Learning Approach By Isaiah Hull; Anna Grodecka-Messi
  12. The role of demand in land re-development By Carozzi, Felipe
  13. Migration and wage inequality: A detailed analysis for German regions over time By Schmid, Ramona
  14. Dynamic spatial general equilibrium By Kleinman, Benny; Liu, Ernest; Redding, Stephen J.
  15. Amending the Heston Stochastic Volatility Model to Forecast Local Motor Vehicle Crash Rates: A Case Study of Washington, D.C By Darren Shannon; Grigorios Fountas
  16. Improving Elementary After-school Program for Child Development By Kim, Inkyung
  17. Breaking Down: Teacher Attrition from Publicly Available Resources By Esbenshade, Lief
  18. Geographies of Socio-Economic Inequality By van Ham, Maarten; Manley, David; Tammaru, Tiit
  19. Becoming neighbors with refugees and voting for the far-right? The impact of refugee inflows at the small-scale level By Fremerey, Melinda; Hörnig, Lukas; Schaffner, Sandra
  20. The Long-Run Effects of Immigration: Evidence across a Barrier to Refugee Settlement By Ciccone, Antonio; Nimczik, Jan Sebastian
  21. Corridor Developments for Transforming Central Asia By Kumagai, Satoru; Gokan, Toshitaka; Tsubota, Kenmei
  22. Loan Modifications and the Commercial Real Estate Market By David P. Glancy; Robert J. Kurtzman; Lara Loewenstein
  23. A Matching Mechanism for Provision of Housing to the Marginalized By J Ceasar Aguma
  24. How much choice is enough? Parental satisfaction with secondary school choice in England and Scotland By Bhattacharya, Aveek
  25. Walking while Black :Racial Gaps in Hit-and-Run Cases By Madina Kurmangaliyeva; Matteo Sostero
  26. The making of the modern metropolis: evidence from London By Heblich, Stephan; Redding, Stephen; Sturm, Daniel
  27. Racial Sentencing Disparities and Differential Progression Through the Criminal Justice System: Evidence From Linked Federal and State Court Data By Brendon McConnell
  28. New Open-Source Analyses of Transit Job Access and Transit Ridership By Boarnet, Marlon G.; Flores Moctezuma, David; Gross, James
  29. Banking Deserts," City Size, and Socioeconomic Characteristics in Medium and Large U.S. Cities By Scott W. Hegerty
  30. Assessing Smoke-Free Housing Implementation Approaches to Inform Best Practices: A National Survey of Early-Adopting Public Housing Authorities By Ellen Childs; Alan C. Geller; Daniel R. Brooks; Jessica Davine; John Kane; Robyn Keske; Jodi Anthony; Vaughan W. Rees
  31. The Election Day that Lasted 84 Days: Mapping the Electoral Geography of the 2019 Istanbul Metropolitan Mayoral Race By Gülhan, Sinan Tankut
  32. Estimating the effect of crime (maps) on house prices using a (un)natural experiment By Zhang, Meng Le; Adepeju, Monsuru; Thomas, Rhiannon
  33. Citizen participation in urban policy: Lessons based on Berlin and São Paulo experiences By Morais, Mariana
  34. Job protection and mortgage conditions: Evidence from Italian administrative data By Paolo Emilio Mistrulli; Tommaso Oliviero; Zeno Rotondi; Alberto Zazzaro
  35. Regional Economic Impacts of Trans-Caspian Infrastructure Improvement: Implications for the Post-COVID-19 Era By Li, Xinmeng; Wang, Kailai; Chen, Zhenhua
  36. Multidimensional Poverty in Morocco: An Exploratory Spatial Approach By Eduardo A Haddad; Inacio F Araujo, Zineb Sijelmassi Idrissi, Chanelle Ihezagire, Youness El Bouazzaoui
  37. When Coal Leaves Town: Can Local Governments Help? By Winkler, Hernan
  38. Population growth, immigration and labour market dynamics By Elsby, Michael W. L.; Smith, Jennifer; Wadsworth, Jonathan
  39. Logistics Policy Analysis and Network Model Simulation for Cross-Border Transport in the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor: Global Intermodal Logistics Network Simulation (GLINS) Model By Watanabe, Daisuke; Shibasaki, Ryuichi; Arai, Hirofumi
  40. Convergence and determinants of young people not in employment, education or training: an European regional analysis By Maynou, Laia; Ordóñez, Javier; Silva, José Ignacio
  41. Minimum wages and the China syndrome: causal evidence from US local labor markets By Heath Milsom, Luke; Roland, Isabelle
  42. The Role of Face-to-face Contact on Innovation: Evidence from the Spanish Flu Pandemic in Japan By Hiroyasu Inoue; Kentaro Nakajima; Tetsuji Okazaki; Yukiko U. Saito
  43. Expected Home Price Increases Accelerate over the Short Term but Remain Stable over the Medium Term By Fatima-Ezzahra Boumahdi; Leo Goldman; Andrew F. Haughwout; Benjamin Hyman; Haoyang Liu; Jason Somerville
  44. Long-range connections and mixed diffusion in fractional networks By R. Vilela Mendes; Tanya Araújo
  45. Getting Lucky: The Long-Term Consequences of Exam Luck By Fanny Landaud; Éric Maurin; Barton Willage; Alexander L.P. Willén
  46. Why working from home will stick By Maria Barrero, Jose; Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven J.
  47. Pandemic shock and economic divergence: political economy before and after the black death By Bosshart, Luis; Dittmar, Jeremiah
  48. Results of Rancho Cordova “Free $5 to Ride” Ridehailing Discount Coupon Program By Harold, Brian MBA; Rodier, Caroline PhD; Zhang, Yunwan MS; Harrison, Makenna; Yang, Grace; Phan, Christine
  49. The diffusion of disruptive technologies By Bloom, Nicholas; Hassan, Tarek Alexander; Kalyani, Aakash; Lerner, Josh; Tahoun, Ahmed
  50. Voting under threat: evidence from the 2020 French local elections By Leromain, Elsa; Vannoorenberghe, Gonzague
  51. Do intensive guidance programs reduce social inequality in the transition to higher education in Germany? Experimental evidence from the ZuBAb study 0.5 years after high school graduation By Erdmann, Melinda; Pietrzyk, Irena Magdalena; Helbig, Marcel; Jacob, Marita; Stuth, Stefan
  52. Does cohesion policy reduce EU discontent and Euroscepticism? By Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Dijkstra, Lewis
  53. Innovation Diffusion among Case-based Decision-makers By Benson Tsz Kin Leung
  54. Cities fit for the digital age By SULIS Patrizia; VANDECASTEELE Ine; HALMOS Andrea; NI EARCAIN Noirin; MAISTRALI Antigoni; AURAMBOUT Jean-Philippe; LAVALLE Carlo
  55. Intermediate activities while commuting By Giménez-Nadal; José Ignacio, Molina, José Alberto, Velilla; Jorge
  56. The Impact of the SBA Funding Programs on the Distance and Pricing of Loans to Small Businesses By Manish Gupta; Steven Ongena
  57. Satisfaction with the Environmental Condition in the Italian Regions between 2004 and 2020 By Laureti, Lucio; Costantiello, Alberto; Leogrande, Angelo
  58. Payroll Tax, Employment and Labor Market Concentration By Erick Baumgartner; Raphael Corbi, Renata Narita
  59. Developmental Losses in Young Children from Pre-primary Program Closures during the COVID-19 Pandemic By Abufhele, Alejandra; Bravo, David; López Bóo, Florencia; Soto-Ramirez, Pamela
  60. Discovering Opportunities in New York City's Discovery Program: an Analysis of Affirmative Action Mechanisms By Yuri Faenza; Swati Gupta; Xuan Zhang
  61. How to Reduce Discrimination? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Amateur Soccer By Dur, Robert; Gomez-Gonzalez, Carlos; Nesseler, Cornel
  62. Sometimes It Works! The Effect of a Reform of the Short Vocational Track on School-to-Work Transition By Comi, Simona Lorena; Grasseni, Mara; Origo, Federica
  63. Labour Market Concentration, Wages and Job Security in Europe By Andrea Bassanini; Giulia Bovini; Eve Caroli; Jorge Casanova Ferrando; Federico Cingano; Paolo Falco; Florentino Felgueroso; Marcel Jansen; Pedro S. Martins; António Melo; Michael Oberfichtner; Martin Popp
  64. Efficient industrial policy for innovation: standing on the shoulders of hidden giants By Guillard, Charlotte; Martin, Ralf; Thomas, Catherine; Verhoeven, Dennis
  65. The Emerging Quantum Technology Industry: capital cities, entrepreneurship, and policy By Saverio Romeo; Helen Lawton Smith; Erran Carmel; John Slater
  66. Ethnicity and cultural dynamics By Bunce, John A; McElreath, Richard
  67. Optimal times to buy and sell a home By Matthew Lorig; Natchanon Suaysom
  68. Income and the desire to migrate By Langella, Monica; Manning, Alan
  69. Walking the line: Does crossing a high stakes exam threshold matter for labour market outcomes? By Oliver Anderson
  70. Estimation of a Factor-Augmented Linear Model with Applications Using Student Achievement Data By Matthew Harding; Carlos Lamarche; Chris Muris
  71. When bulldozers loom: informal property rights and marketing practice innovation among emerging market micro-entrepreneurs By Hassan, Magda; Prabhu, Jaideep; Chandy, Rajesh; Narasimhan, Om

  1. By: Xubei Luo (The World Bank - The World Bank - The World Bank); Nong Zhu (INRS - Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique [Québec])
    Abstract: This study aims to identify drivers of spatial migration in the context of regional structural transformation towards clean and connected cities. Using two surveys of floating population covering all cities, conducted by China Family Planning Commission in 2010 and 2014, we examine the effect of city characteristics and local policies on the mobility of migrants. Our analyses show that city size, wage level, sectoral composition, ownership structure of enterprises, and healthcare service provision are important factors that condition migratory inflow; their effect varies across migrants with different characteristics. While most of migrants moved to the regional hubs, migration to cities other than hubs has increased in the 2010s and many medium and small cities have become more attractive.
    Keywords: Migration,Agglomeration,City,Structural Transformation,China
    Date: 2022–03–11
  2. By: Bloom, Nicholas; Ramani, Arjun
    Abstract: Using data from the US Postal Service and Zillow, we quantify the effect of Covid-19 on migration patterns and real estate markets within and across US cities. We find two key results. First, within large US cities, households, businesses, and real estate demand have moved from dense central business districts (CBDs) towards lower density suburban zip-codes. We label this the 'Donut Effect' reflecting the movement of activity out of city centers to the suburban ring. Second, while this observed reallocation occurs within cities, we do not see major reallocation across cities. That is, there is less evidence for large-scale movement of activity from large US cities to smaller regional cities or towns. We rationalize these findings by noting that working patterns post pandemic will frequently be hybrid, with workers commuting to their business premises typically three days per week. This level of commuting is less than pre-pandemic, making suburbs relatively more popular, but too frequent to allow employees to leave the cities containing their employer.
    Keywords: Covid-19; US 'donut effect'; migration patterns; firm-specific shocks; earnings; coronavirus
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2021–09–02
  3. By: Harshil Sahai; Mike Bailey
    Abstract: This paper studies the role of social networks in spatial mobility across India. Using aggregated and de-identified data from the world's largest online social network, we (i) document new descriptive findings on the structure of social networks and spatial mobility in India; (ii) quantify the effects of social networks on annual migration choice; and (iii) embed these estimates in a spatial equilibrium model to study the wage implications of increasing social connectedness. Across millions of individuals, we find that multiple measures of social capital are concentrated among the rich and educated and among migrants. Across destinations, both mobility patterns and social networks are concentrated toward richer areas. A model of migration suggests individuals are indifferent between a 10% increase in destination wages and a 12-16% increase in destination social networks. Accounting for networks reduces the migration-distance relationship by 19%. In equilibrium, equalizing social networks across locations improves average wages by 3% (24% for the bottom wage-quartile), a larger impact than removing the marginal cost of distance. We find evidence of an economic support mechanism, with destination economic improvements reducing the migration-network elasticity. We also find suggestive evidence for an emotional support mechanism from qualitative surveys among Facebook users. Difference-in-difference estimates suggest college attendance delivers a 20% increase in network size and diversity. Taken together, our data suggest that - by reducing effective moving costs - increasing social connectedness across space may have considerable economic gains.
    Date: 2022–03
  4. By: Donald Bruce (Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research And Department of Economics, Haslam College of Business, University of Tennessee); Lawrence M. Kessler (Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research And Department of Economics, Haslam College of Business, University of Tennessee)
    Abstract: The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 placed a $10,000 annual limit on the deductibility of state and local taxes (SALT) for federal individual income tax purposes. This policy change likely increased the cost of home ownership for some proportion of households living in high tax areas, and we examine whether these costs were capitalized into the local housing market through slower growth in housing prices. Motivated by the possibility that the SALT deduction cap caused some taxpayers to relocate to lower-tax environments or discouraged some taxpayers from moving to higher-tax environments, we also explore the extent to which the federal deductibility of state and local taxes influences migration patterns. We make use of a variety of housing market, tax policy, and migration information to explore this possibility with event studies and differences-in-difference estimation methods. We find that the SALT deduction cap led to a sizeable and statistically significant reduction in housing price growth for affected counties but had no discernable impact on state-level migration patterns. The extent to which these impacts represent a reduction in fairness depends critically upon one’s view of the degree of fairness in the pre-TCJA policy landscape.
    Keywords: State and Local Taxation, Housing, Real Estate, Migration
    JEL: H2 H3 H7 R2 R3
    Date: 2022–01
  5. By: Centner, Ryan
    Abstract: This paper compares how Istanbul and Beirut both attempt to underline their cultural and developmental uniqueness today in contrast to a metonymic menace — Dubai, standing in for spectacular yet supposedly culture-less Gulf cities. Even amid their own speculative construction frenzies that threaten local heritage, Turkish and Lebanese city-shapers assert theirs are “real” cities because they have “civilization” and “history.” By addressing their own efforts to build, defend, or oppose physical infrastructures related to local urban culture, Istanbullus and Beirutis rely on and reassert strategic, phatic discourses that frequently reference Gulf cities as counterpoint. Analysis focuses on how each city crafts a distinctive urban profile via civilizational appeals to historic senses of culture, inflecting infrastructural developments related to bridging (Istanbul) and bordering (Beirut). Historical truisms are deployed with marked flexibility to showcase these cities as “not Dubai.” This study offers lessons on the particular worlding of Middle Eastern cities and the role of discourses in the material-symbolic infrastructure of implicit urban cultural policy.
    Keywords: Istanbul; Beirut; Dubai; infrastructure; discourse; heritage; development
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2020–10–05
  6. By: Ben Conigrave; Philip Hemmings
    Abstract: Norway, like a number of other countries, saw steep growth in house prices during the pandemic. This added to past years of strong price increases and has brought renewed concern for housing affordability. Tax advantages to buying homes inflate house prices, contribute to wealth inequality and divert resources from more productive investments. An underdeveloped rental market is an additional consequence of Norway’s pro-homeownership policies. Beyond tax reform and targeted support for low-income households, including renters, lasting improvements in affordability will require measures to enhance the responsiveness of residential construction to increased demand. However, creating room for new housing supply can involve difficult trade‑offs with environmental and other policy objectives.
    Keywords: house prices, housing affordability, housing market, land-use regulations, Norway, personal income tax, social housing, sustainable housing
    JEL: R21 R31 R38 H20 H24 Q58
    Date: 2022–04–19
  7. By: Gerard Domenech Arumi
    Abstract: study the effects of neighborhoods on perceived inequality and preferences for redistribution. Using administrative data on the universe of dwellings and real estate transactions in Barcelona (Spain), I construct a novel measure of local inequality — the Local Neighborhood Gini (LNG). The LNG is based on the spatial distribution of housing within a city, independent of administrative boundaries, and building-specific. I elicit inequality perceptions and preferences for redistribution from an original large-scale survey conducted in Barcelona. I link those to respondents’ specific local environments using exact addresses. I find that a one standard deviation increase inLNGis associated with 4% higher perceived inequality, but with (if anything) lower demand for redistribution. Residential sorting explains the counter-intuitive pattern. To causally identify the effects of local environments, I exploit within-neighborhood variation from the rise of new apartment buildings as a quasi-experiment. Exposure to new buildingsincreases perceived inequality by 7% and demand for redistribution by 1%. Effects come from higher perceived income at the top. Local environments shape inequality perceptions and (to a lesser extent) demand for redistribution.
    Keywords: Inequality, Gini, Redistribution, Housing
    Date: 2022–04
  8. By: Hilber, Christian A. L.; Mense, Andreas
    Abstract: In most countries – particularly in supply constrained superstar cities – house prices have risen much more strongly than rents over the last two decades. We provide an explanation that does not rely on falling interest rates, changing credit conditions, unrealistic expectations, rising inequality, or global investor demand. Our model distinguishes between short- and long-run supply constraints and assumes housing demand shocks exhibit serial correlation. Employing panel data for England, our instrumental variable-fixed effect estimates suggest that in Greater London labor demand shocks in conjunction with supply constraints explain two-thirds of the 153% increase in the priceto-rent ratio between 1997 and 2018.
    Keywords: house prices; housing rents; price-to-rent ratio; price and rent dynamics; housing supply; land use regulation
    JEL: G12 R11 R21 R31 R52
    Date: 2021–01–15
  9. By: Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M.; Heblich, Stephan; Seidel, Tobias
    Abstract: We develop a programming algorithm that predicts a balanced-panel mix-adjusted house price index for arbitrary spatial units from repeated cross-sections of geocoded micro data. The algorithm combines parametric and non-parametric estimation techniques to provide a tight local fit where the underlying micro data are abundant and reliable extrapolations where data are sparse. To illustrate the functionality, we generate a panel of German property prices and rents that is unprecedented in its spatial coverage and detail. This novel data set uncovers a battery of stylized facts that motivate further research, e.g. on the density bias of price-to-rent ratios in levels and trends, within and between cities. Our method lends itself to the creation of comparable neighborhood-level qualified price and rent indices for residential and commercial property.
    Keywords: index; real estate; price; property; rent
    JEL: R10
    Date: 2021–07–20
  10. By: Lei Dong; Rui Du; Yu Liu
    Abstract: China's demographic changes have important global economic and geopolitical implications. Yet, our understanding of such transitions at the micro-spatial scale remains limited due to spatial inconsistency of the census data caused by administrative boundary adjustments. To fill this gap, we manually collected and built a population census panel from 2010 to 2020 at both the county and prefectural-city levels. We show that the massive internal migration drives China's increasing population concentration and regional disparity, resulting in severe population aging in shrinking cities and increasing gender imbalance in growing cities.
    Date: 2022–03
  11. By: Isaiah Hull; Anna Grodecka-Messi
    Abstract: How do property prices respond to changes in local taxes and local public services? Attempts to measure this, starting with Oates (1969), have suffered from a lack of local public service controls. Recent work attempts to overcome such data limitations through the use of quasi-experimental methods. We revisit this fundamental problem, but adopt a different empirical strategy that pairs the double machine learning estimator of Chernozhukov et al. (2018) with a novel dataset of 947 time-varying local characteristic and public service controls for all municipalities in Sweden over the 2010-2016 period. We find that properly controlling for local public service and characteristic controls more than doubles the estimated impact of local income taxes on house prices. We also exploit the unique features of our dataset to demonstrate that tax capitalization is stronger in areas with greater municipal competition, providing support for a core implication of the Tiebout hypothesis. Finally, we measure the impact of public services, education, and crime on house prices and the effect of local taxes on migration.
    Date: 2022–03
  12. By: Carozzi, Felipe
    Abstract: Vacant, previously-developed land in cities can generate negative externalities on surrounding areas, and is often the target of policies to promote re-development. This paper provides estimates of the price sensitivity of land re-development, a crucial parameter for the success of these policies. My estimates measure how prices affect long-run conversion of unused or underused previously developed land in England. The empirical strategy uses school test scores and admission district boundaries in a boundary discontinuity design to generate variation in housing demand that is orthogonal to re-development costs. Results show that the probability of re-development is effectively sensitive to housing prices. Estimates indicate that a 1% increase in prices leads to a 0.07 percentage point reduction in the fraction of hectares containing brownfield land. Price differences or substantial subsidies could lead to a significant amount of re-development in the long run. This is confirmed by observed land use changes between 2007 and 2011 being disproportionately concentrated in high price areas.
    Keywords: land re-development; Brownfields; land supply
    JEL: R14 R31
    Date: 2020–05–01
  13. By: Schmid, Ramona
    Abstract: This study presents new evidence on immigrant-native wage differentials estimated in consideration of regional differences regarding the presence of Non-German population in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas between 2000 and 2019 in Germany. Using linked employer-employee-data, unconditional quantile regression models are estimated in order to assess the degree of labor market integration of foreign workers. Applying an extended version of the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method, the results provide evidence on driving factors behind wage gaps along the entire wage distribution. There are not only changes in the relative importance of explanatory factors over time, but also possible sources of wage differentials shift between different points of the wage distribution. Differentiating between various areas in Germany, on average, larger wage gaps are revealed in metropolitan areas with at the same time a higher presence of the foreign population. Regarding the size of overall estimated wage gaps, after 2012 a reversal in trend and particular increasing tendencies around median wages are identified.
    Keywords: Immigrant-native wage gap,Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition,unconditional quantile regression,ethnic clustering,Germany
    JEL: J15 J31 J61 R23 R58
    Date: 2022
  14. By: Kleinman, Benny; Liu, Ernest; Redding, Stephen J.
    Abstract: We develop a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model with forward-looking investment and migration decisions. We characterize analytically the transition path of the spatial distribution of economic activity in response to shocks. We apply our framework to the re-allocation of US economic activity from the Rust Belt to the Sun Belt from 1965-2015. We find slow convergence to steady-state, with US states closer to steady-state at the end of our sample period than at its beginning. We find substantial heterogeneity in the effects of local shocks, which depend on capital and labor dynamics, and the spatial and sectoral incidence of these shocks.
    Keywords: spatial dynamics; economic geography; trade; migration
    JEL: F14 F15 F50
    Date: 2021–07–28
  15. By: Darren Shannon; Grigorios Fountas
    Abstract: Modelling crash rates in an urban area requires a swathe of data regarding historical and prevailing traffic volumes and crash events and characteristics. Provided that the traffic volume of urban networks is largely defined by typical work and school commute patterns, crash rates can be determined with a reasonable degree of accuracy. However, this process becomes more complicated for an area that is frequently subject to peaks and troughs in traffic volume and crash events owing to exogenous events (for example, extreme weather) rather than typical commute patterns. One such area that is particularly exposed to exogenous events is Washington, DC, which has seen a large rise in crash events between 2009 and 2020. In this study, we adopt a forecasting model that embeds heterogeneity and temporal instability in its estimates in order to improve upon forecasting models currently used in transportation and road safety research. Specifically, we introduce a stochastic volatility model that aims to capture the nuances associated with crash rates in Washington, DC. We determine that this model can outperform conventional forecasting models, but it does not perform well in light of the unique travel patterns exhibited throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, its adaptability to the idiosyncrasies of Washington, DC crash rates demonstrates its ability to accurately simulate localised crash rates processes, which can be further adapted in public policy contexts to form road safety targets.
    Date: 2022–03
  16. By: Kim, Inkyung
    Abstract: As the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need to further strengthen education and childcare, this study looks at the correlation between the participation of elementary school students in after-school programs and their child development and then offers recommendations for developmental outcomes among elementary school children through after-school activities. After-school programs are educational and caring activities that schools offer for a certain period apart from the regular school curriculum, tailored to the needs of students and parents. Students choose a course from a list of diverse program options, encompassing school subjects and special talent and aptitude programs. The analysis finds no consistent correlation between participation in after-school activities and the development of elementary school students. As for the after-school program, less than one hour of participation led to better health status assessments, and for two to three hours, there were improvements in academic vigor, grit, and body mass index (BMI) but decreased aggressiveness, depression, and peer relationship. In contrast, physical symptoms worsened when participating for two or more hours. Such results may be attributed to the differences between the programs, such as varying content composition depending on operating hours, teaching methods, and instructor characteristics. For after-school programs to shore up student competencies, they should share student guidance information with regular classes, form a close link with the regular curriculum, and provide sufficient care backed by positive interactions. Provided that student information such as interests, experiences, developmental characteristics, learning history, etc., is exchanged between elementary school courses and after-school programs, the extracurricular activities may provide in-depth stimulation for learning based on the data. Affectionate and nurturing care is a prerequisite to bringing out students' potential. It is necessary to expand the instructor pool competent in achieving the well-rounded development of children, widen the scope of after-school program providers to local communities, and have local governments take a managing role over the programs for efficient and effective management. In addition to providing compulsory training courses for prospective after-school instructors, the instructor selection process should adopt multi-faceted personality interviews to find out candidates' responses about a given classroom situation for a comprehensive assessment. Local governments should play a managing role in planning, promoting, and overseeing after-school activities in the region, including after-school programs at schools. Meanwhile, schools should actively engage and cooperate within this framework by informing after-school program registration details and providing a venue.
    Date: 2021
  17. By: Esbenshade, Lief
    Abstract: Research into teacher turnover in America dates back at least 100 years, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the teacher labor market highlights the need for better understanding of this issue. How- ever, there is no comprehensive national data system for tracking the teacher labor market in the United States. In this paper I present ef- forts to compile public payroll records from 13 states with over 11 million teacher by year employment records. I demonstrate how these records can be compiled and used to analyze teacher turnover across and between school districts. I find that across states between 10 and 15 percent of teachers stop teaching in their district in a given year, and the interquar- tile range across districts is approximately 5 percentage points. I conclude by discussing how this data can form the starting point for a new standard in understanding teacher retention.
    Date: 2022–04–13
  18. By: van Ham, Maarten (Delft University of Technology); Manley, David (University of Bristol); Tammaru, Tiit (University of Tartu)
    Abstract: Over many decades, academics, policymakers and governments have been concerned with both the presence of inequalities and the impacts these can have on people when concentrated spatially in urban areas. This concern is especially related to the influence of spatial inequalities on individual outcomes in terms of health, education, work and income, and general well-being amongst other outcomes. In this commentary, we provide an overview of the literature on spatial inequalities and on contextual and neighbourhood effects. We address some of the main challenges in modelling contextual effects and provide evidence that no single study can definitively provide the answer to the question whether – and how much – spatial context effects are relevant for understanding individual outcomes. It is only when taken together that the rich body of research on spatial context effects shows convincingly that spatial context effects are relevant. The commentary ends with the presentation of the vicious circle of the segregation model and suggest some ways in which this vicious circle of spatial inequality and segregation can be broken.
    Keywords: spatial inequality, segregation, neighbourhood effects, spatial context effects
    JEL: I30 J60 P46 R23
    Date: 2022–03
  19. By: Fremerey, Melinda; Hörnig, Lukas; Schaffner, Sandra
    Abstract: We investigate the effect of the refugee inflow between 2014 and 2017 on voting for the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the national parliamentary election in 2017 in Germany. Drawing on unique small-scale data enables us to distinguish between the contact theory, captured by the inflow of refugees into the immediate neighborhood (1km x 1km), and county-level (NUTS 3) effects, which might pick-up other, broader factors such as media coverage or specific county-level policies. We alleviate concerns of an endogenous refugee allocation by a shift-share instrument. Our results indicate that the contact theory is valid in urban West Germany, i. e., higher refugee inflows in West German urban neighborhoods decrease the shares of far-right voting, while there is no robust evidence of a relationship between refugee inflow and far-right vote shares in East Germany and rural West Germany.
    Keywords: voting behavior,neighborhood characteristics,refugees,immigration
    JEL: D72 J15 R23
    Date: 2022
  20. By: Ciccone, Antonio (University of Mannheim); Nimczik, Jan Sebastian (European School of Management and Technology (ESMT))
    Abstract: After the end of World War II in 1945, millions of refugees arrived in what in 1949 became the Federal Republic of Germany. We examine their effect on today's productivity, wages, income, rents, education, and population density at the municipality level. Our identification strategy is based on a spatial discontinuity in refugee settlement at the border between the French and US occupation zones in the South-West of post-war Germany. These occupation zones were established in 1945 and dissolved in 1949. The spatial discontinuity arose because the US zone admitted refugees during the 1945-1949 occupation period whereas the French zone restricted access. By 1950, refugee settlement had raised population density on the former US side of the 1945-1949 border significantly above density on the former French side. Before the war, there never had been significant differences in population density. The higher density on the former US side persists entirely in 2020 and coincides with higher rents as well as higher productivity, wages, and education levels. We examine whether today's economic differences across the former border are the result of the difference in refugee admission; the legacy of other policy differences between the 1945-1949 occupation zones; or the consequence of socio-economic differences predating WWII. Taken together, our results indicate that today's economic differences are the result of agglomeration effects triggered by the arrival of refugees in the former US zone. We estimate that exposure to the arrival of refugees raised income per capita by around 13% and hourly wages by around 10%.
    Keywords: immigration, productivity, wages, refugees, long-run effects
    JEL: O4 O11 R11
    Date: 2022–03
  21. By: Kumagai, Satoru (Asian Development Bank Institute); Gokan, Toshitaka (Asian Development Bank Institute); Tsubota, Kenmei (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: We offer a spatial computable general equilibrium model (SCGE) to evaluate the potential regional economic impacts of the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Program (CAREC) corridors and the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR). We base our model on spatial economics and incorporate sub-national data over the regions. We also equip the model with multimodal choices among trucks, trains, airplanes, and ships, which are crucial for the analysis of landlocked regions like Central Asia. Through scenario-based simulations, we find that economic impacts are not spatially limited to the regions with the projects. It is probable that population and industries may shift to regions with better connectivity by virtue of corridor developments. There would also be synergy effects from the implementation of both the CAREC and the TITR corridor, meaning that the two projects have a complementary relationship. Furthermore, the analysis reveals that the economic impacts of the projects may derive largely from the growth in the service sector, suggesting the need for additional public investments, such as special economic zones, to boost industries other than services.
    Keywords: impacts of infrastructures; economic development; spatial computable general equilibrium
    JEL: C68 O18 R30
    Date: 2021–06
  22. By: David P. Glancy; Robert J. Kurtzman; Lara Loewenstein
    Abstract: Banks modify more CRE loans than CMBS, contributing to better loan performance when property incomes decline. However, banks have higher delinquency rates for less-stressed loans, consistent with modification policies encouraging strategic default. Motivated by these facts, we develop a tradeoff theory model in which lenders vary in their modification technologies. Modification frictions discourage strategic renegotiation, enabling CMBS to offer higher LTV loans and attract borrowers seeking higher leverage. The model produces cross-lender differences in LTVs and spreads consistent with the data. Reducing modification frictions at CMBS decreases welfare by restricting debt capacity for the borrowers that value it most.
    Keywords: commercial real estate; modifications; LTV
    JEL: G21 G22 G23 R33
    Date: 2022–04–12
  23. By: J Ceasar Aguma
    Abstract: During this pandemic, there have been unprecedented community and local government efforts to slow down the spread of the coronavirus, and also to protect our local economies. One such effort is California's project Roomkey that provided emergency housing to over 2000 vulnerable persons but fell short of the set goal of 15,000. It is projected that the homelessness problem will only get worse after the pandemic. With that in mind, we borrow from efforts like project Roomkey and suggest a solution that looks to improve upon these efforts to efficiently assign housing to the unhoused in our communities. The pandemic, together with the project Roomkey, shed light on the underlying supply demand mismatch that presents an opportunity for a matching mechanism solution to assigning housing options to the unhoused in a way that maximizes social welfare and minimizes susceptibility to strategic manipulation. Additionally, we argue that this automated solution would cut down on the amount of funding and personnel required for the assignment of housing to unhoused persons. Our solution is not intended to replace current solutions to homeless housing assignments but rather improve upon them. We can not postpone a proper solution to homelessness anymore, the time is now as the need for an efficient solution is most dire.
    Date: 2022–03
  24. By: Bhattacharya, Aveek
    Abstract: Governments around the world have sought to promote school choice, not just in order to improve educational outcomes, but also because such choice is believed to be intrinsically valuable: parents are believed to want to choice and to feel empowered by it. This article empirically evaluates the intrinsic value of school choice, comparing the attitudes and experiences of parents in England (where expanding choice is an explicit policy goal) and Scotland (where policymakers tend to play down choice), combining an online survey with in-depth interviews. While the overwhelming majority of parents in both countries express a desire for some school choice, only a minority want choice primarily for intrinsic reasons. Rather, most believe it is necessary to avoid negative outcomes for their children. Moreover, while parents in England tend to say they have more choice than their Scottish counterparts, they are no more satisfied with the level of choice that they have. Indeed, they tend to be more cynical, fatalistic and disempowered. Based on the British experience, school choice policies have not been successful in promoting intrinsic value.
    Keywords: autonomy; intrinsic value; quasi-markets; school choice; studentship
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2021–12–06
  25. By: Madina Kurmangaliyeva; Matteo Sostero
    Abstract: We provide a causal test for racial gaps in victimization and clearance rates, using unintentional vehicle-pedestrian crashes. The victim’s raceshould not depend on the driver’s characteristics, conditional on location and time. We find that American drivers flee 13% more often if they hitBlack pedestrians, and their clearance rates are 11% lower. This provides rare evidence of racial discrimination by the public in a high-stakes environment.These gaps correlate, suggesting statistical discrimination as a mechanism and underlining the importance of closing the racial gapin clearance rates, especially in poorer non-Black neighborhoods. Tastebased discrimination is arguably also at play.
    Keywords: racial gap, victimization, hit-and-run crimes, statistical discrimination, out-group bias, law enforcement
    Date: 2022–04
  26. By: Heblich, Stephan; Redding, Stephen; Sturm, Daniel
    Abstract: Using newly constructed spatially disaggregated data for London from 1801 to 1921, we show that the invention of the steam railway led to the first large-scale separation of workplace and residence. We show that a class of quantitative urban models is remarkably successful in explaining this reorganization of economic activity. We structurally estimate one of the models in this class and find substantial agglomeration forces in both production and residence. In counterfactuals, we find that removing the whole railway network reduces the population and the value of land and buildings in London by up to 51.5% and 53.3% respectively, and decreases net commuting into the historical center of London by more than 300,000 workers.
    JEL: O18 R12 R40
    Date: 2020–11–01
  27. By: Brendon McConnell
    Abstract: Several key actors -- police, prosecutors, judges -- can alter the course of individuals passing through the multi-staged criminal justice system. I use linked arrest-sentencing data for federal courts from 1994-2010 to examine the role that earlier stages play when estimating Black-white sentencing gaps. I find no evidence of sample selection at play, suggesting federal judges are largely responsible for racial sentencing disparities. In contrast, I document substantial sample selection bias in two different state courts systems. Estimates of race and ethnic sentencing gaps that ignore selection underestimate the true disparities by 18% and 13% respectively.
    Date: 2022–03
  28. By: Boarnet, Marlon G.; Flores Moctezuma, David; Gross, James
    Abstract: This research project examines the link between job access and stop/station level transit ridership. Job access, following recent literature, is measured as the number of jobs that can be reached within a 30-minute transit travel time, including transfers and walk time to access jobs once exiting a transit station. Cumulative opportunity job access measures of this sort—i.e., the number of jobs that can be reached within 30 minutes—have become common in the recent access literature, and those measures have often focused on access via transit. Yet there have been few studies that examine the link between transit job access and transit ridership, and of those none that examine the link at a station or stop level. This study uses station and stop level ridership data for the Los Angeles Metro bus and rail system and the BART rail system in the San Francisco Bay Area. The research team calculated transit job access as jobs that can be reached within 30 minutes, using the Remix software tool. Regression analysis of 1,000 randomly selected Los Angeles bus stops reveals a robust relationship between stop-level ridership and job access. The association between transit job access and bus stop ridership (embarkations and disembarkations at the stop) is statistically significant. Converting that association into an elasticity, if the number of jobs accessible within 30-minutes were to increase by 1 percent, on average stop-level ridership would increase between 0.6 to 0.8 percent. The same association, with similar magnitudes, exists for Metro rail stations and BART rail stations, but due the smaller sample sizes, those relationships are not statistically significant when control variables are added to the regression. The findings show that job access is closely related to ridership at the bus stop level, suggesting transit agencies can increase job access by increasing bus frequency, reducing transfers, siting lines that connect job concentrations to residents, and by improving bus stop/rail station access/egress times. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Accessibility, Job Access, Employment, Transit Ridership, Boarding & Alighting, Travel Time, Public Transit Networks
    Date: 2022–04–01
  29. By: Scott W. Hegerty
    Abstract: A lack of financial access, which is often an issue in many central-city U.S. neighborhoods, can be linked to higher interest rates as well as negative health and psychological outcomes. A number of analyses of "banking deserts" have also found these areas to be poorer and less White than other parts of the city. While previous research has examined specific cities, or has classified areas by population densities, no study to date has examined a large set of individual cities. This study looks at 319 U.S. cities with populations greater than 100,000 and isolates areas with fewer than 0.318 banks per square mile based on distances from block-group centroids. The relative shares of these "deserts" appears to be independent of city population across the sample, and there is little relationship between these shares and socioeconomic variables such as the poverty rate or the percentage of Black residents. One plausible explanation is that only a subset of many cities' poorest, least White block groups can be classified as banking deserts; nearby block groups with similar socioeconomic characteristics are therefore non-deserts. Outside of the Northeast, non-desert areas tend to be poorer than deserts, suggesting that income- and bank-poor neighborhoods might not be as prevalent as is commonly assumed.
    Date: 2022–03
  30. By: Ellen Childs; Alan C. Geller; Daniel R. Brooks; Jessica Davine; John Kane; Robyn Keske; Jodi Anthony; Vaughan W. Rees
    Abstract: Secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure causes chronic illness and occurs at a higher prevalence in low-income communities than the general public.
    Keywords: secondhand smoke, smoke-free housing, tobacco control, policy implementation, socioeconomic disadvantage, health disparities
  31. By: Gülhan, Sinan Tankut (Gaziantep University)
    Abstract: The Istanbul metropolitan mayoral election in 2019 provided a suitable way to study the subtle and apparent shifts in the Turkish political landscape. For the first time in recent history, opposition gained ground in this main commercial and population hub. So far, Istanbul local politics were treated from an aspatial perspective. Here, we employ spatial econometrics to understand the subtle groundswell in Istanbul’s political geography. This paper maps the electoral change that took place in the 84 days between two elections using 31 thousand ballot data based on 782 districts in Istanbul. In addition to the change in voting patterns we also employ two different datasets to better situate the change of public opinion. The first database is the socioeconomic status indexing of Istanbul’s districts. The second database comes from the author’s own work employing python-based datamining the online database of for sale properties in Istanbul on the verge of the 2019 election. An OLS regression analysis and a spatial-lag regression is applied on the datasets. The results are contrary to the political punditry and points to a newly emerging middle-class coalition.
    Date: 2022–04–02
  32. By: Zhang, Meng Le (University of Sheffield); Adepeju, Monsuru; Thomas, Rhiannon
    Abstract: Crime may affect house prices through mediating causal pathways--such as the destruction of property or victimisation of locals. One mediating pathway is the 'signalling' effect of crime which may decrease house prices in high crime areas due to a perception of increased victimisation or other factors like undesirable neighbours. The public may form their opinions about crime from several sources, from word of mouth to official statistics. Since 2011, online public crime maps have published monthly crime figures at almost street-level resolution (Sampson and Kinnear 2010; see At its launch in February 2011, the crime map website (henceforth referred to by its domain name received over 18 million visits an hour which caused the website to crash repeatedly (Travis and Mulholland 2011). This project will estimate the signalling effects of crime maps on house prices using a natural experiment that leverages intentional errors in public information -- caused by data anonymisation techniques -- as a source of variation. The aim of this pre-registration is to specify the research plan in ahead of data collection/ access.
    Date: 2022–04–02
  33. By: Morais, Mariana
    Abstract: This paper explores how different means of citizen participation influence urban policies at the city level. The study considers four case studies in two cities, Berlin, Germany and Sao Paulo, Brazil, covering different stages of the policy cycle. Informed by the assessment of qualitative research conducted during a year-long study, the experiences illustrate that the ability to navigate between streets and institutions in participatory procedures is key to ensuring political embeddedness of citizen contributions while remaining context sensitive. By expanding the concept of participation to incorporate different fields of action, the study provides a lens to inform procedural designs while questioning frameworks that hinder the democratic urban transformation.
    Keywords: Citizen participation,participatory planning,participatory design,democraticcities
    Date: 2022
  34. By: Paolo Emilio Mistrulli (Banca d'Italia); Tommaso Oliviero (University of Naples Federico II and CSEF); Zeno Rotondi (UniCredit, CERBE and MoFiR); Alberto Zazzaro (Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Naples Federico II)
    Abstract: In this paper we combine administrative data from the Italian National Institute for Social Security and proprietary data from a major Italian commercial bank to analyse the impact of job protection legislation on mortgage conditions. An exogenous change in the degree of job protection against individual dismissals of workers with open-ended contracts is identified by exploiting the 2015 Labor market reform, the so-called Jobs Act, which reduced employment protection of newly hired employees in medium and large private firms. We find that the weaker job security induced by the 2015 legislation change leads to a lower mortgage amount and a lower leveraging capacity, as measured by the loan-to-value ratio. Furthermore, the effect of job insecurity is mitigated by the presence of co-mortgagors while it is amplified for young and low-income mortgagors.
    Keywords: Employment protection law; job stability; mortgage market
    JEL: C21 G21 G51 J41
    Date: 2022–04
  35. By: Li, Xinmeng (Asian Development Bank Institute); Wang, Kailai (Asian Development Bank Institute); Chen, Zhenhua (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: With the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR) has received increasing attention. The corridor connects the PRC and Europe via Central Asian countries. Hence, it plays an important role in facilitating international trade through its transportation infrastructure network systems. As the corridor is opening up substantial economic opportunities for transit countries, it is becoming essential to have a proper understanding of the economic impact of potential transportation infrastructure investment on these countries along the TITR corridor. We conduct a regional economic impact assessment of transportation infrastructure investment to fill this research gap, using a computable general equilibrium analysis. To capture the uncertainty of infrastructure investment given the influence of COVID-19, we evaluated different impacts of the shocks, such as different modes of freight transportation (including rail, road, sea, and air), types of trade (exporting and importing), and levels of investor confidence. The results show that infrastructure investment has heterogeneous multiplier effects on the regional economy (due to the differences in infrastructure quality and country endowment). The impacts of infrastructure investment primarily result from the promotion of exports, and the impacts vary substantially by mode. Overall, we suggest that, although TITR countries are facing investment uncertainty due to the influence of COVID-19, strengthening infrastructure investment can be a useful tool to stimulate the economy while reducing the negative impact of the epidemic.
    Keywords: Trans-Caspian International Transport Route; transportation infrastructure; trade cost; computable general equilibrium
    JEL: F16 H54 J60
    Date: 2021–07
  36. By: Eduardo A Haddad; Inacio F Araujo, Zineb Sijelmassi Idrissi, Chanelle Ihezagire, Youness El Bouazzaoui
    Abstract: In spite of the overall decrease in poverty in Morocco in the recent past, the pace of change did not affect regions equally. Poorer provinces faced slower reductions, increasing the relative gap in poverty indicators. In this paper, we explore the results of a multidimensional poverty indicator produced by the High Commission for Planning (HCP), the Moroccan official statistical agency, for the period 2004-2014. The Multidimensional Poverty Index (IPM) allows investigating the spatial aspects of different dimensions of poverty in the country. We find a clear spatial process underlying the distribution of the IPM. Moreover, the analysis undertaken at the province level suggests a persistent poverty hot spot in the northeast part of the country associated with poor infrastructure. Other poverty areas are more heavily associated with low quality of public services, particularly education and health. We provide a typology of geographically targeted sectoral policies, showing that there is no single recipe for all regions, since structural features matter.
    Keywords: Spatial analysis; Multidimensional poverty; Policy targeting; Morocco
    JEL: I30 R11
    Date: 2022–03–24
  37. By: Winkler, Hernan
    Abstract: This article provides new evidence on the impacts of coal mine closures on local labor markets and the role of mitigation policies. Using data on 285 Polish municipalities from 1995 to 2016, the results show that the employment rates of men falls by 3 and 8 percentage points in the short- and long-term, respectively, in municipalities that experience a mine closure. Mining communes –having greater privileges over revenue collection– receive more intergovernmental transfers and increase their expenditures on family benefits during a coal mine closure. These policies are associated with smaller job losses in the short-term but with a sluggish recovery in the long-term. Given the low levels of labor mobility and wage flexibility that characterize the Polish labor market, the findings are consistent with local fiscal policies cushioning the negative impacts of coal mine closures on the demand for local goods and services in the short-term. In contrast, they may contribute to raise the reservation wage and thereby to slow down employment growth in the long-term.
    Keywords: coal, local government, employment
    JEL: H72 J23 Q52 Q58
    Date: 2021–07–21
  38. By: Elsby, Michael W. L.; Smith, Jennifer; Wadsworth, Jonathan
    Abstract: This paper examines the role of population flows on labour market dynamics across immigrant and native-born populations in the United Kingdom. Population flows are large, and cyclical, driven first by the maturation of baby boom cohorts in the 1980s, and latterly by immigration in the 2000s. New measures of labour market flows by migrant status uncover both the flow origins of disparities in the levels and cyclicalities of immigrant and native labour market outcomes, as well as their more recent convergence. A novel dynamic accounting framework reveals that population flows have played a nontrivial role in the volatility of labour markets among both the UK-born and, especially, immigrants.
    Keywords: immigration; worker flows; labour market dynamics
    JEL: E24 J60
    Date: 2021–11–10
  39. By: Watanabe, Daisuke (Asian Development Bank Institute); Shibasaki, Ryuichi (Asian Development Bank Institute); Arai, Hirofumi (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: The countries in Central Asia are landlocked and without coastlines. Therefore, the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor (TCTC) will play an important role in facilitating cross-border logistics in Central Asia, particularly with land transport. To promote interregional collaborations between Central Asian countries for managing these handicaps, the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Program was established through the leadership of the Asian Development Bank. We study the effectiveness of logistics policy and infrastructure development for cross-border transport along the TCTC using a simulation analysis based on a network equilibrium assignment model. The global logistics intermodal network simulation model, which we developed to cover intermodal freight transport networks (including roads, railways, ferries, and maritime shipping across the Eurasian continent) is used for policy simulation in Central Asia. In particular, the simulation incorporates the impact of the logistics policies related to cross-border transport in the TCTC, including the improvement of ferry services and rail networks along the corridor. The simulation results support the Kazakhstani approach, which emphasizes transit time reduction and transport tariffs while simultaneously enhancing cooperation within the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route Association.
    Keywords: logistics; network equilibrium model; Eurasian landbridge; Central Asia
    JEL: C63 R42
    Date: 2021–06
  40. By: Maynou, Laia; Ordóñez, Javier; Silva, José Ignacio
    Abstract: In this paper, we study the convergence in the rates of young people Not in Employment, Education or Training (NEET) across the 274 European regions from 2000 to 2019. First, we apply the club convergence methodology and identify the presence of four important clusters with different trends in NEET rates. The estimated clusters consist of sub-national regions in quite distinct parts of Europe. Then, a spatio-temporal econometric model is used to confirm the presence of a reduction in the disparities (β–convergence) of these rates across the European regions. We identify the main drivers in each cluster and calculate the long-run NEET rates. The unemployment rate and the percentage of early leavers from education and training are the main drivers of NEET rates in all clusters.
    Keywords: convergence; European Union; NEET rates; youth unemployment
    JEL: J1 R14 J01
    Date: 2022–05–01
  41. By: Heath Milsom, Luke; Roland, Isabelle
    Abstract: Exposure to Chinese import competition led to significant manufacturing job losses in the United States. Local labor markets, however, differ significantly in how they fared with respect to manufacturing employment. An important question is whether labor market institutions have an impact on the dynamic response of manufacturing employment to rising import penetration. We contribute to this debate by showing that minimum wages amplified the negative effect of Chinese import penetration on manufacturing employment in US local labor markets between 2000 and 2007. We develop a rigorous double-edged identification strategy. First, we construct shift-share instrumental variables to address the endogeneity of import penetration. Second, we use a border identification strategy to distinguish the effects of minimum wage policies from the effects of other local labor market characteristics that are unrelated to policy. Specifically, we rely on comparing commuting zones that are contiguous to each other but located in different states with different minimum wage policies. The approach essentially considers what happens to the response of manufacturing employment to import penetration when one crosses a policy border.
    Keywords: import penetration; labor market institutions; minimum wages; manufacturing employment
    JEL: E24 F14 F16 J23 L60 R12
    Date: 2021–10–28
  42. By: Hiroyasu Inoue; Kentaro Nakajima; Tetsuji Okazaki; Yukiko U. Saito
    Abstract: This study empirically investigates the role of face-to-face contact in innovation, by exploiting the Spanish flu pandemic in Japan from 1918 to 1921, which prohibitively increased the cost of face-to-face contact between inventors. By using unique patent bibliographic data for this period, we estimate the pandemics impact on innovation for technologies which requires intensive face-to-face communication for invention. Specifically, we define the patent technology classes with the large fraction of collaborative patents before the pandemic as collaboration intensive technology that is considered to require intensive face-to-face communication for invention. Then, we estimate the impact of pandemic on the invention of collaboration intensive technology by Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach. The estimation results show that during the pandemic, patent applications for collaboration intensive technology significantly decreased, and did not fully recover even after the pandemic ended. We also find that the negative impact is driven by a decrease in new entries into patent applications, that is, patent applications by the inventors who applied for patents for the firrst time. We further find that productive inventors were experienced co-inventions during their early careers. These results suggest that the decrease in face-to-face contacts with colleagues and seniors in the preliminary stages of inventors careers reduced the opportunity to nurture new inventors.
    Keywords: Innovation; Face-to-face communication; Idea exchange JEL Codes: R11
    Date: 2022–04
  43. By: Fatima-Ezzahra Boumahdi; Leo Goldman; Andrew F. Haughwout; Benjamin Hyman; Haoyang Liu; Jason Somerville
    Abstract: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s 2022 SCE Housing Survey shows that expected changes in home prices in the year ahead increased relative to the corresponding timeframe in the February 2021 survey, while five-year expectations remained unchanged. Households reported that they would be less likely to buy if they were to move compared to the year-ago survey, marking the first annual decline since the series began in 2014. This drop was driven by current renters, who were much less likely to buy compared to renters in the 2021 survey. Renters also reported that they expect rents to be sharply higher twelve months from now, with the expected rate of increase more than twice that reported a year ago. The expected price of rent five years ahead also rose compared to expectations a year ago, but at a more moderate pace.
    Keywords: home price expectations; rent expectations; housing outlook
    JEL: R31
    Date: 2022–04–18
  44. By: R. Vilela Mendes; Tanya Araújo
    Abstract: Networks with long-range connections, obeying a distance-dependent power law of sufficiently small exponent, display superdiffusion, L´evy flights and robustness properties very different from the scale-free networks. It has been proposed that these networks, found both in society and in biology, be classified as a new structure, the fractional networks. Particular important examples are the social networks and the modular hierarchical brain networks where both short- and long-range connections are present. The anomalous superdiffusive and the mixed diffusion behavior of these networks is studied here as well as its relation to the nature and density of the long-range connections.
    Date: 2022–03
  45. By: Fanny Landaud; Éric Maurin; Barton Willage; Alexander L.P. Willén
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of exam luck on individuals’ education and labor market success. We leverage unique features of the Norwegian education system that produce random variation in the content of the exams taken by students at the end of high school. Lucky students take exams in subjects they are better at, and we show that this generates significant improvements in both their high school GPA and diploma probability. Subsequently, exam luck generates substantial and persistent wage differentials across otherwise identical individuals. These luck-induced wage effects are of a similar magnitude as those generated by well-known education inputs, such as parental education and teacher quality.
    Keywords: luck, fairness, wage differentials, returns to education, high-stakes exams
    JEL: D63 H52 I21 I23 I24 I26 J24 J31
    Date: 2022
  46. By: Maria Barrero, Jose; Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven J.
    Abstract: COVID-19 drove a mass social experiment in working from home (WFH). We survey more than 30,000 Americans over multiple waves to investigate whether WFH will stick, and why. Our data say that 20 percent of full workdays will be supplied from home after the pandemic ends, compared with just 5 percent before. We develop evidence on five reasons for this large shift: better-than-expected WFH experiences, new investments in physical and human capital that enable WFH, greatly diminished stigma associated with WFH, lingering concerns about crowds and contagion risks, and a pandemic-driven surge in technological innovations that support WFH. We also use our survey data to project three consequences: First, employees will enjoy large benefits from greater remote work, especially those with higher earnings. Second, the shift to WFH will directly reduce spending in major city centers by at least 5-10 percent relative to the pre-pandemic situation. Third, our data on employer plans and the relative productivity of WFH imply a 5 percent productivity boost in the post-pandemic economy due to re-optimized working arrangements. Only one-fifth of this productivity gain will show up in conventional productivity measures, because they do not capture the time savings from less commuting.
    Keywords: Covid-19; USA; productivity; technological innovations; coronavirus
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2021–08–13
  47. By: Bosshart, Luis; Dittmar, Jeremiah
    Abstract: We document how the Black Death activated politics and led to economic divergence within Europe. Before the pandemic, economic development was similar in Eastern and Western German cities despite greater political fragmentation in the West. The pandemic precipitated a divergence that coincided with prior differences in politics. After the pandemic, construction and manufacturing fell by 1/3 in the East relative to underlying trends and the Western path. Politics institutionalizing local self-government advanced in the West, but not in the East. This divergence is observed across otherwise similar cities along historic borders and foreshadows a subsequent divergence in agriculture.
    Keywords: institutions; political economy; structural change; cities; growth
    JEL: N13 N14 N60 N93 O10 O18 O40 P48
    Date: 2021–10–22
  48. By: Harold, Brian MBA; Rodier, Caroline PhD; Zhang, Yunwan MS; Harrison, Makenna; Yang, Grace; Phan, Christine
    Abstract: Pilot programs have been implemented in cities across the U.S. to address the first- and last- mile problem with door-to-door shared microtransit, ridehailing companies, and shared-ride operators with dynamic pick-up locations. The City of Rancho Cordova and Lyft partnered to launch one such pilot in the form of a discount-based door-to-door (D2D) coupon program named “Free $5 to Ride”. The program offers $5 credits to Lyft riders who start or end their trips at one of four Sacramento Regional Transit District (SacRT) light rail stations. The program was designed to reduce rider dependence on personal vehicles and increase the overall convenience of transit use in the region. UC Davis researchers conducted an evaluation of the “Free $5 to Ride” program during its operational period of May 2019 through June 2021. Researchers developed a participant survey and used survey data along with participant trip data, ridership data for the SacRT light rail, and ridership data for the Rancho CordoVan shuttle service to characterize the outcomes of the pilot program. The evaluation shows that the coupon program was generally well-received. Participation levels increased dramatically by early 2020, and while trip activity dropped at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, program activity remained fairly constant through the end of the program. Researchers encountered survey sampling limitations due to ridehailing customer engagement policies, suggesting that future evaluations of similar programs would benefit from increased data access, or modified policies allowing operators to conduct more extensive outreach in support of these studies.
    Keywords: Engineering, Ridesourcing, public transit, first mile/last mile, shared mobility, Sincentives, surveys, travel behavior, outreach, pilot studies
    Date: 2022–03–01
  49. By: Bloom, Nicholas; Hassan, Tarek Alexander; Kalyani, Aakash; Lerner, Josh; Tahoun, Ahmed
    Abstract: We identify novel technologies using textual analysis of patents, job postings, and earnings calls. Our approach enables us to identify and document the diffusion of 29 disruptive technologies across firms and labor markets in the U.S. Five stylized facts emerge from our data. First, the locations where technologies are developed that later disrupt businesses are geographically highly concentrated, even more so than overall patenting. Second, as the technologies mature and the number of new jobs related to them grows, they gradually spread across space. While initial hiring is concentrated in high-skilled jobs, over time the mean skill level in new positions associated with the technologies declines, broadening the types of jobs that adopt a given technology. At the same time, the geographic diffusion of low-skilled positions is significantly faster than higher-skilled ones, so that the locations where initial discoveries were made retain their leading positions among high-paying positions for decades. Finally, these technology hubs are more likely to arise in areas with universities and high skilled labor pools.
    Keywords: disruptive technologies; firms; labor markets
    JEL: R14 J01 J1
    Date: 2021–09–10
  50. By: Leromain, Elsa; Vannoorenberghe, Gonzague
    Abstract: We study how Covid-related risk affected participation across the French territory in the March 2020 local elections. We document that participation went down disproportionately in towns exposed to higher Covid-19 risk. Towns that lean towards the far-right saw a stronger drop in turnout, in particular in the vicinity of clusters. We argue that these patterns are partly a result of risk perceptions, and not only of political considerations. We use data on the drop in cinema admissions in early March 2020 and show that these went down more around infection clusters, especially in areas with substantial vote for the far-right. Taken together, our findings suggest that the fear of Covid-19 may have been on average more prevalent among far-right voters, contributing to a drop in their electoral participation.
    Keywords: electoral turnout; local elections; Covid-19; far-right; coronavirus
    JEL: D72
    Date: 2021–07–30
  51. By: Erdmann, Melinda; Pietrzyk, Irena Magdalena; Helbig, Marcel; Jacob, Marita; Stuth, Stefan
    Abstract: This paper examines the effect of an intensive counseling program to promote university access among students who are eligible for university. Using data from the experimental panel study ZuBAb, we examine the average effect on university enrollment directly after high school graduation and the effect heterogeneity by educational background. No positive effect of participation is found. We discuss these results in relation to the potential of reducing inequalities through individual counseling in Germany.
    Keywords: university access,educational intervention,experiment,social origin,Studienaufnahme,Bildungsintervention,Experiment,soziale Herkunft
    Date: 2022
  52. By: Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Dijkstra, Lewis
    Abstract: Some regions in Europe that have been heavily supported by the European Union’s Cohesion Policy have recently opted for parties with a strong Eurosceptic orientation. The results at the ballot box have been put forward as evidence that Cohesion Policy is ineffective for tackling the rising, European-wide wave of discontent. However, the evidence to support this view is scarce and often contradictory. This paper analyses the link between Cohesion Policy and the vote for Eurosceptic parties. It uses the share of votes cast for Eurosceptic parties in more than 63,000 electoral districts in national legislative elections in the EU-28 to assess whether Cohesion Policy investment since the year 2000 has made a difference for the electoral support for parties opposed to European integration. The results indicate that Cohesion Policy investment is linked to a lower anti-EU vote. This result is robust to employing different econometric approaches, to considering the variety of European development funds, to different periods of investment, to different policy domains, to shifts in the unit of analysis and to different levels of opposition by parties to the European project.
    Keywords: anti-system voting; cohesion policy; elections; Europe; Euroscepticism; populism; regions
    JEL: D72 R11 R58
    Date: 2021–02–01
  53. By: Benson Tsz Kin Leung
    Abstract: This paper analyzes a model of innovation diffusion with case-based individuals a la Gilboa and Schmeidler (1995, 1996, 1997), who decide whether to consume an incumbent's or an entrant's product based on their and their social neighbors' previous consumption experience. I analyze how diffusion pattern changes with individuals characteristics, innovation characteristics and social network. In particular, radical innovation leads to higher initial speed but lower acceleration compared to increment innovation. Social network with lower degree of homophily or higher exposure of reviews from early adopters speed up diffusion of innovation.
    Date: 2022–03
  54. By: SULIS Patrizia (European Commission - JRC); VANDECASTEELE Ine (European Commission - JRC); HALMOS Andrea; NI EARCAIN Noirin; MAISTRALI Antigoni (European Commission - JRC); AURAMBOUT Jean-Philippe (European Commission - JRC); LAVALLE Carlo (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: Digital technologies and innovative solutions can act as critical enablers in enhancing services and contribute to improving the urban environment and the overall quality of life of its citizens. Cities and communities should implement interoperable solutions, based on existing open standards and technical specifications, to avoid vendor-lock in, benefit from cross-domain, integrated services and infrastructures, reduce costs, and scale up successful projects. Efforts should be made to increase resources and improve capacity and skills around data management as well as in the use of innovation procurement. The introduction of new services and technology applications can create or increase disparities in terms of the digital and social divide in relation to age, gender, economic status, etc. Public bodies at local, national and EU level need to introduce appropriate measures to prepare for the possible consequences of digital innovation in cities.
    Keywords: smart cities, digital age, human-centric AI, data strategy
    Date: 2022–03
  55. By: Giménez-Nadal; José Ignacio, Molina, José Alberto, Velilla; Jorge
    Abstract: Recent analyses have shown that commutes to and from work are not symmetric, suggesting that intermediate activities are at the root of these asymmetries. However, how intermediate activities interact with trips to and from work is an unexplored issue. Using data from the American Time Use Survey 2003-2019, we analyze what activities workers do while commuting, and compare measures of commuting when intermediate activities are included or excluded as part of the commuting trip. We show that commuting is underestimated if measured with the Time Use Survey lexicon. Such differences are especially significant in commuting from work. Furthermore, gender comparisons of commuting are affected by the inclusion of intermediate while commuting, with gender differences narrowing when intermediate activities are considered. Our results contribute to the analysis of commuting behavior, by proposing new identification strategies based on intermediate non-trip episodes, and by showing how commuting interacts with other non-commuting activities.
    Keywords: Commuting time,Trip behavior,Intermediate activity,Time use data,American Time Use Survey
    JEL: J22 R41
    Date: 2022
  56. By: Manish Gupta (Nottingham University Business School); Steven Ongena (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute; KU Leuven; NTNU Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR))
    Abstract: What is the impact of Small Business Administration Preferred Lenders Program (PLP) on the distance between banks and small businesses and the pricing of the loans granted? We test predictions from a stylized transportation cost model on 7(a) loan data from 2008 to 2019. We find that non-PLP banks (the SBA) grant loans to borrowers closer-by and at a loan rate higher than PLP banks. A drop in SBA fees (in 2014) increases the distance to borrowers of both, but more so for PLP banks, and it reduces the loan rate charged by both, but less so for PLP banks.
    Keywords: banking sector, competition, SBA, distance, loan rate
    JEL: G21 L11 L14
    Date: 2022–04
  57. By: Laureti, Lucio; Costantiello, Alberto; Leogrande, Angelo
    Abstract: In the following article, the “Satisfaction with the Environmental Condition” in the 20 Italian regions between 2004 and 2020 was estimated using ISTAT-BES data. The data were analyzed using the following econometric techniques, namely: Panel Data with Random Effects, Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Dynamic Panel, Pooled OLS, WLS. The results show that satisfaction with the environmental situation is positively associated with the following variables "People with at least high school diploma", "Satisfaction with leisure time", "Concern for the deterioration of the landscape" and negatively associated with "Gross disposable income per capita", "Dissatisfaction with the landscape of the place of life", "Perception of the risk of crime". A cluster analysis was then carried out using the unsupervised k-Means algorithm optimized through the Silhouette coefficient and 3 clusters were found. A comparative analysis was then carried out between eight different machine learning algorithms to predict the trend of satisfaction by environmental situation. The analysis showed that the Tree Ensemble Regression algorithm is the best predictor and estimates a reduction of the variable of 0.05%. Subsequently, using augmented data, a further prediction was made with an estimated result equal to -1.93%.
    Keywords: Environmental Economics, Valuation of Environmental Effects, Sustainability, Government Policy, Ecological Economics.
    JEL: Q5 Q51 Q56 Q57 Q58
    Date: 2022–03–19
  58. By: Erick Baumgartner; Raphael Corbi, Renata Narita
    Abstract: How much employment can be generated by decreasing payroll taxes? We examine this question by exploring the staggered rollout of a large payroll tax reform in Brazil. Using administrative matched employer-employee data, we find an increase of 5 percent on employment due to both firm growth and firm entry, no impact on wages and an increase of 59 percent in profits. Moreover, employment effects are driven by less concentrated labor markets, consistent with predictions from an oligopsony model.
    Keywords: Payroll Tax; Employment; Wages; Profits; Oligopsony
    JEL: H25 H32 J31 J6 J42
    Date: 2022–03–24
  59. By: Abufhele, Alejandra (Universidad Adolfo Ibañez); Bravo, David (Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile); López Bóo, Florencia (Inter-American Development Bank); Soto-Ramirez, Pamela (Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile)
    Abstract: The learning and developmental losses from pre-primary program closures due to COVID-19 may be unprecedented. These disruptions early in life can be long-lasting. Although there is evidence about the effects of school closures on older children, there is currently no evidence on such losses for children in their early years. This paper is among the first to quantify the actual impact of pandemic-related closures on child development, in this case for a sample of young children in Chile, where school and childcare closures lasted for about a year. We use a unique dataset collected face-to-face in December 2020, which includes child development indicators for general development, language development, social-emotional development, and executive function. We find adverse impacts on children in 2020 compared to children interviewed in 2017 in most development areas. In particular, nine months after the start of the pandemic, we find a loss in language development of 0.25 SDs.
    Keywords: COVID-19, child development, Chile, childcare closures
    JEL: I25 J13 O15 Z13
    Date: 2022–03
  60. By: Yuri Faenza; Swati Gupta; Xuan Zhang
    Abstract: Discovery program (DISC) is an affirmative action policy used by the New York City Department of Education (NYC DOE). It has been instrumental in increasing the number of admissions for disadvantaged students at specialized high schools. However, our empirical analysis of the student-school matches shows that about 950 in-group blocking pairs were created each year amongst the disadvantaged group of students, impacting about 650 disadvantaged students. Moreover, we find that this program usually benefits lower-performing disadvantaged students more than the top-performing ones, thus unintentionally creating an incentive to under-perform. In this work, we explore two affirmative action policies that can be used to minimally modify and improve the discovery program: minority reserve (MR) and joint-seat allocation (JSA). We show that (i) both MR and JSA result in no in-group blocking pairs, and (ii) JSA is weakly group strategy-proof, ensures that at least one disadvantaged is not worse off, and when reservation quotas are carefully chosen then no disadvantaged student is worse-off. In the general setting, we show that there is no clear winner in terms of the matchings provided by DISC, JSA and MR, from the perspective of disadvantaged students. We however characterize a condition for markets, that we term high competitiveness, where JSA dominates MR for disadvantaged students. This condition is verified in markets when there is a higher demand for seats than supply, and the performances of disadvantaged students are significantly lower than that of advantaged students. Data from NYC DOE satisfy the high competitiveness condition, and for this dataset our empirical results corroborate our theoretical predictions, showing the superiority of JSA. We believe that the discovery program, and more generally affirmative action mechanisms, can be changed for the better by implementing JSA.
    Date: 2022–03
  61. By: Dur, Robert (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Gomez-Gonzalez, Carlos (University of Zurich); Nesseler, Cornel (Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU))
    Abstract: A rich literature shows that ethnic discrimination is an omnipresent and highly persistent phenomenon. Little is known, however, about how to reduce discrimination. This study reports the results of a large-scale field experiment we ran together with the Norwegian Football Federation. The federation sent an email to a random selection of about 500 amateur soccer coaches, pointing towards the important role that soccer can play in promoting inclusivity and reducing racism in society and calling on the coaches to be open to all interested applicants. Two weeks later, we sent fictitious applications to join an amateur club, using either a native-sounding or a foreign-sounding name, to the same coaches and to a random selection of about 500 coaches who form the control group. In line with earlier research, we find that applications from people with a native-sounding name receive significantly more positive responses than applications from people with a foreign-sounding name. Surprisingly and unintentionally, the email from the federation substantially increased rather than decreased this gap. Our study underlines the importance of running field experiments to check whether well-intended initiatives are effective in reducing discrimination.
    Keywords: ethnic discrimination, intervention, field experiment, correspondence test, amateur soccer
    JEL: C93 J15 Z29
    Date: 2022–03
  62. By: Comi, Simona Lorena (University of Milan Bicocca); Grasseni, Mara (University of Bergamo); Origo, Federica (University of Bergamo)
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact on the length of school-to-work transition of a reform that extended from two to three years the short vocational track in Italy in the early 2000s. In the empirical analysis we use the Two Way Fixed Effect methodology to estimate the impact of the reform, exploiting its staggered implementation across regions. The analysis is restricted to graduates from the short vocational track before and after the reform. The results show that the reform had a positive impact and reduced school-to-work transition by around 5 months (a 24% reduction). Moreover, the new short vocational track proved to be extremely effective for migrants and females, whose school-to-work transition was reduced by 1.4 years and 0.9 years, respectively. In implementing the new short vocational track, some regions adopted a quasi-market organization in which private training institutions competed with public schools. This model proved to be more effective in shortening school-to-work transitions, in particular for migrants. This study makes an important contribution to the literature on the labor-market effect of vocational education by showing that lengthening the short vocational track, and changing the overall content of curricula, can speed up school-to-work transition.
    Keywords: school-to-work transition, vocational education, policy evaluation
    JEL: I26 I28 J24
    Date: 2022–03
  63. By: Andrea Bassanini; Giulia Bovini; Eve Caroli; Jorge Casanova Ferrando; Federico Cingano; Paolo Falco; Florentino Felgueroso; Marcel Jansen; Pedro S. Martins; António Melo; Michael Oberfichtner; Martin Popp
    Abstract: We investigate the impact of labour market concentration on two dimensions of job quality, namely wages and job security. We leverage rich administrative linked employer-employee data from Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain in the 2010s to provide the first comparable cross-country evidence in the literature. Controlling for productivity and local product market concentration, we show that the elasticities of wages with respect to labour market concentration are strikingly similar across countries: increasing labour market concentration by 10% reduces wages by 0.19% in Germany, 0.22% in France, 0.25% in Portugal and 0.29% in Denmark. Regarding job security, we find that an increase in labour market concentration by 10% reduces the probability of being hired on a permanent contract by 0.46% in France, 0.51% in Germany and 2.34% in Portugal. While not affecting this probability in Italy and Spain, labour market concentration significantly reduces the probability of being converted to a permanent contract once hired on a temporary one. Our results suggest that considering only the effect of labour market concentration on wages underestimates its overall impact on job quality and hence the resulting welfare loss for workers.
    Date: 2022–04
  64. By: Guillard, Charlotte; Martin, Ralf; Thomas, Catherine; Verhoeven, Dennis
    Abstract: Research and development is underprovided whenever it creates knowledge spillovers that drive a wedge between its total and private economic returns. Heterogeneity in the intensity of this market failure across technological areas provides an argument to vertically target public support for R&D. This paper examines potential welfare gains of such vertical industrial policy for innovation. It develops measures of private and spillover value of patented innovations using global data on patents and their citations. Our new method identifies a large number 'Hidden Giants' - i.e. innovations scoring higher on our new spillover measure than on the traditional forward citation count measure - which are shown to be particularly prevalent among patents applied for by universities. The estimated distributions of private values by technology area are then used to parameterize a structural model of innovation. The model permits estimation of the marginal returns to technology-area-specific subsidies that reduce innovators' R&D costs. Marginal returns are high when knowledge spillovers in the technology area are valuable, when private innovation costs are low, and when private values in a technology sector are densely distributed around the private cost. The results show large variation in the marginal returns to subsidy and suggest that targeted industrial policy would have helped mitigate underprovision of R&D over the time period studied. Variation in the extent to which knowledge spillovers are internalized within countries also makes a compelling case for supranational policy coordination, especially among smaller countries.
    Keywords: research and development; patented innovations; decoupling; targeted industrial policy
    JEL: R14 J01 J1
    Date: 2021–11–04
  65. By: Saverio Romeo (Center for Innovation Management, Birkbeck University of London, UK); Helen Lawton Smith (Department of Management, Birkbeck University of London, UK); Erran Carmel (ogod School of Business, American University, Washington DC); John Slater
    Date: 2021–04
  66. By: Bunce, John A; McElreath, Richard
    Abstract: Much cultural variation in humans is structured by ethnic identity, which entails perceptions of covariance between easily observable markers, difficult-to-observe norms, and, often, (potentially mythical) ancestry. The dynamics of ethnic identity entail changes in the distributions of these perceptions in a population over time. Here, we review the scope of ethnicity, the adaptive nature of ethnic psychology, the dynamics of ethnic perceptions, the consequences of ethnicity for other cultural dynamics, and challenges for future research.
    Date: 2022–04–06
  67. By: Matthew Lorig; Natchanon Suaysom
    Abstract: We consider a financial market in which the risk-free rate of interest is modeled as a Markov diffusion. We suppose that home prices are set by a representative home-buyer, who can afford to pay only a fixed cash-flow per unit time for housing. The cash-flow is a fraction of the representative home-buyer's salary, which grows at a rate that is proportional to the risk-free rate of interest. As a result, in the long-run, higher interest rates lead to faster growth of home prices. The representative home-buyer finances the purchase of a home by taking out a mortgage. The mortgage rate paid by the home-buyer is fixed at the time of purchase and equal to the risk-free rate of interest plus a positive constant. As the home-buyer can only afford to pay a fixed cash-flow per unit time, a higher mortgage rate limits the size of the loan the home-buyer can take out. As a result, the short-term effect of higher interest rates is to lower the value of homes. In this setting, we consider an investor who wishes to buy and then sell a home in order to maximize his discounted expected profit. This leads to a nested optimal stopping problem. We use a nonnegative concave majorant approach to derive the investor's optimal buying and selling strategies. Additionally, we provide a detailed analytic and numerical study of the case in which the risk-free rate of interest is modeled by a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) process. We also examine, in the case of CIR interest rates, the expected time that the investor waits before buying and then selling a home when following the optimal strategies.
    Date: 2022–03
  68. By: Langella, Monica; Manning, Alan
    Abstract: We analyse the role of household and country-level personal income in explaining both the desire to emigrate and the desired destination country. We use data from the Gallup World Poll and applications to the US Diversity Visa Program. We find that higher GDP per capita at destination is strongly associated with a higher desire to move to that country. We do not find strong support for the selection hypothesis that people want to move to countries with a higher return to their level of education. On emigration, we find that both personal income and aggregate income matter. In poorer countries richer people are more likely to want to emigrate, while the opposite is true in richer countries. In looking at the impact of origin country income on the desire to emigrate, we find little evidence for the upward part of Zelinsky's 'hump-shape' migration transition hypothesis.
    Keywords: international migration; migration intentions; development; 834455 “LPIGMANN”
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2021–09–06
  69. By: Oliver Anderson (UCL Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities)
    Abstract: This paper offers new insight into the link between success in high stakes exams and subsequent education and labour market outcomes. It is the first study to look holistically at the impact of crossing an important high stakes threshold on both academic and vocational education choices and ultimately labour market outcomes. It does so by comparing those either side of a formerly important threshold in the English education system at the end of compulsory schooling (achieving five general certificate of secondary education A* to C passes) which was commonly regarded as the minimum benchmark for continuing into post-compulsory education. I find that crossing this threshold led to an 6.3-6.7 percentage point increase in the proportion of men and women (respectively) going on to take academic qualifications, with little change in the proportion taking vocational qualifications, leading to a net increase in those staying on after compulsory schooling. Women's daily earnings in 2017-18 (11-13 years after leaving compulsory schooling) were 3.1 percentage points higher for those just crossing the threshold, but men's early labour market outcomes were unchanged. The results for men can be explained by low returns to academic qualifications for marginal learners. The findings for women do not disappear after accounting for subsequent education choices, suggesting that crossing the threshold may play a signalling role for employers as well as education institutions.
    JEL: I20 I24
    Date: 2022–04
  70. By: Matthew Harding; Carlos Lamarche; Chris Muris
    Abstract: In many longitudinal settings, economic theory does not guide practitioners on the type of restrictions that must be imposed to solve the rotational indeterminacy of factor-augmented linear models. We study this problem and offer several novel results on identification using internally generated instruments. We propose a new class of estimators and establish large sample results using recent developments on clustered samples and high-dimensional models. We carry out simulation studies which show that the proposed approaches improve the performance of existing methods on the estimation of unknown factors. Lastly, we consider three empirical applications using administrative data of students clustered in different subjects in elementary school, high school and college.
    Date: 2022–03
  71. By: Hassan, Magda; Prabhu, Jaideep; Chandy, Rajesh; Narasimhan, Om
    Abstract: Micro-entrepreneurs represent the most common type of business in the world, and marketing is a primary means by which they earn their livelihoods. They are especially numerous in emerging markets, and many live precarious lives characterized by poverty and potentially devastating exogenous shocks. This paper examines the marketing practices of microentrepreneurs by studying grocery retailers in a large slum in Cairo, Egypt. Employing detailed data on the marketing practices of these retailers, the paper examines why some micro-entrepreneurs engage in innovation in their marketing practices (and perform better), while others fail to do so. We highlight the causal effect of an important but rarely studied factor – informal property rights – on innovation in marketing practices among microentrepreneurs. Because few micro-entrepreneurs in the context we study have access to formal property rights, the threat of expropriation looms large in their lives. We show that those micro-entrepreneurs who possess their stores (without actually owning them) are substantially less likely to innovate in their marketing practices than those who lease their stores. We make use of an exogenous shock to property rights laws to assess the causal impact of informal property rights on innovation in marketing practices.
    Keywords: micro-entrepreneurs; lease; possession; informal property rights; innovation in marketing practice; performance
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2022–01–06

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