nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2022‒04‒25
sixty-five papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Immigrant settlement patterns, transit accessibility, and transit use By Jeff Allen; Steven Farber; Stephen Greaves; Geoffrey Clifton; Hao Wu; Somwrita Sarkar; David Levinson
  2. Housing Market Expectations By Theresa Kuchler; Monika Piazzesi; Johannes Stroebel
  3. Consumption access and agglomeration: evidence from smartphone data By Redding, Stephen; Nakajima, Kentaro; Miyauchi, Yuhei
  4. Commute Mode Share and Access to Jobs across US Metropolitan Areas. By Hao Wu; Andrew Owen; David Levinson
  5. Urban access across the globe: an international comparison of different transport modes By Hao Wu; Paolo Avner; Genevieve Boisjoly; Carlos K. V. Braga; Ahmed El-Geneidy; Jie Huang; Tamara Kerzhner; Brendan Murphy; Michał A. Niedzielski; Rafael H. M. Pereira; John P. Pritchard; Anson Stewart; Jiaoe Wang; David Levinson
  6. The Railway Gauge Muddle in Australia By Nicholas Sheard
  7. Commuting for crime By Kirchmaier, Thomas; Langella, Monica; Manning, Alan
  8. Self-Interest in Public Service: Evidence from School Board Elections By Stephen B. Billings; Hugh Macartney; Geunyong Park; John D. Singleton
  9. Two-dimensional Geographical Position as a Factor in Determining the Growth and Decline of Retail Agglomeration By Aizawa, Hiroki; Kono, Tatsuhito
  10. Do Teachers' College Majors Affect Students' Academic Achievement in the Sciences? A Cross-Subfields Analysis with Student-Teacher Fixed Effects By Inoue, Atsushi; Tanaka, Ryuichi
  11. Commuting to Work in Cities: Bus, Car, or Train? By Batabyal, Amitrajeet; Beladi, Hamid
  12. Working from self-driving cars By Hirte, Georg; Laes, Renée
  13. Job and Worker Density and Transit Network Dynamics. By Manman Li; Mengying Cui; David Levinson
  14. ‘When a Stranger Shall Sojourn with Thee': The Impact of the Venezuelan Exodus on Colombian Labor Markets By Santamaria, J.
  15. Female representation in school management and school quality By Bharti Nandwani;
  16. FinTech Lending, Social Networks and the Transmission of Monetary Policy By Xiaoqing Zhou
  17. Non-trivial relationship between scaling behavior and the GDP microstructure in Indonesian cities By Kuno, Genta; , Pradipto
  18. Commercial real estate prices and COVID-19 By Martin Hoesli; Richard Malle
  19. Optimum Stop Spacing for Accessibility. By David Levinson
  20. The effect of financial incentives on the retention of shortage-subject teachers: evidence from England By Sam Sims; Asma Benhenda
  21. School Choice By Atila Abdulkadiroglu; Tommy Andersson
  22. Technology network structure conditions the economic resilience of regions By Gergõ Tóth; Zoltán Elekes; Adam Whittle; Changjun Lee; Dieter F. Kogler
  23. The Coming Rise in Residential Inflation By Marijn A. Bolhuis; Judd N. L. Cramer; Lawrence H. Summers
  24. The Hidden Cost of Smoking: Rent Premia in the Housing Market By Cigdem Gedikli; Robert Hill; Oleksandr Talavera; Okan Yilmaz
  25. Smart and Edible: How Edible Cities Create Smart Public Spaces By Exner, Andreas; Weinzierl, Carla; Cepoiu, Livia; Arzberger, Stephanie; Spash, Clive L.
  26. COVID-19, Travel Time Reliability, and the Emergence of a Double-Humped Peak Period By Yang Gao; David Levinson
  27. Getting Teachers Back to School: Teacher Incentives and Student Outcomes By Patricio Araya-Córdova; Dante Contreras; Jorge Rodriguez; Paulina Sepulveda
  28. A home for all within planetary boundaries: pathways for meeting England’s housing needs without transgressing national climate and biodiversity goals By zu Ermgassen, Sophus; Drewniok, Michal; Bull, Joseph; Walker, Christine Corlet; Mancini, Mattia; Ryan-Collins, Josh; Serrenho, André Cabrera
  29. Administrative Reforms and Urban Development: Lessons from Italian Unification By Giulio Cainelli; Carlo Ciccarelli; Roberto Ganau
  30. Shortest paths, travel costs, and traffic. By Mengying Cui; David Levinson
  31. Fueling Alternatives: Gas Station Choice and the Implications for Electric Charging By Jackson Dorsey; Ashley Langer; Shaun McRae
  32. The Long-Run Effects of Immigration: Evidence Across a Barrier to Refugee Settlement By Antonio Ciccone; Jan Nimczik
  33. Is the European Union More Unequal Than the Habsburg Empire? Examining Regional Inequalities in Habsburg Regions From 1870 to 2018 By Erfurth, Philipp Emanuel
  34. Super-linear Scaling Behavior for Electric Vehicle Chargers and Road Map to Addressing the Infrastructure Gap By Alexius Wadell; Matthew Guttenberg; Christopher P. Kempes; Venkatasubramanian Viswanathan
  35. Labour market fluctuations and the housing net worth channel in the EU By Cronin, David; McQuinn, Kieran
  36. The impact of spatial clustering of occupation on commuting time and employment status By Tamás Bakó; Judit Kálmán
  37. Urban transformations and complex values: insights from Beirut By Pietrostefani, Elisabetta
  38. An Empirical Analysis of the Socioeconomic Status of Blacks on Police Treatment and Arrests: A Granger Causality Approach By Van, Germinal
  39. The Effects of Legal Representation on Tenant Outcomes in Housing Court: Evidence from New York City's Universal Access Program By Michael T. Cassidy; Janet Currie
  40. Rank Effects in Education: What Do We Know So Far? By Delaney, Judith; Devereux, Paul J.
  41. Unemployment Gap between Long-term Immigrants and Natives in Japan: Considering Heterogeneity Among Immigrants from Asia, the U.S. and UK, and South America By LIU Yang
  42. The Role of Face-to-face Contact in Innovation: The Evidence from the Spanish Flu Pandemic in Japan By INOUE Hiroyasu; NAKAJIMA Kentaro; OKAZAKI Tetsuji; SAITO Yukiko
  43. Measuring Concentration in the Japanese Loan and Deposit Markets By UESUGI, Iichiro; HIRAGA, Kazuki; MANABE, Masashi; YOSHINO, Naoyuki
  44. Return to skills and urban size: Evidence from the skill requirements of Hungarian firms By László Czaller; Zoltán Hermann
  45. Updating Geographical Indices of Multiple Deprivations- Pakistan, 2020 By Jamal, Haroon
  46. Bus Operations of Three San Francisco Bay Area Transit Agencies during the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic By Kurzhanskiy, Alex PhD; Lapardhaja, Servet
  47. Intra-EU Migration, Public Transfers, and Assimilation: Evidence for the Netherlands By Suari-Andreu, Eduard; van Vliet, Olaf
  48. Making accessibility work in practice By Ahmed El-Geneidy; David Levinson
  49. Estimations of local spatial price indices using scanner data, to be used for the comparisons of economic poverty measures By Monica Pratesi; Stefano Marchetti; Caterina Giusti; Gaia Bertarelli; Francesco Schirripa Spagnolo; Luigi Biggeri
  50. Economic Geography and the Efficiency of Environmental Regulation By Alex Hollingsworth; Taylor Jaworski; Carl Kitchens; Ivan J. Rudik
  51. Reducing Racial Inequality in Access to the Ballot Reduces Racial Inequality in Children's Later-Life Outcomes By Jones, Daniel; Shi, Ying
  52. School-age Vaccination, School Openings and Covid-19 diffusion By Emanuele Amodio; Michele Battisti; Antonio Francesco Gravina; Andrea Mario Lavezzi; Giuseppe Maggio
  53. Place-Based Policies and Agglomeration Economies: Firm-Level Evidence from Special Economic Zones in India By Görg, Holger; Mulyukova, Alina
  54. The Brazilian intergovernmental fiscal transfer for conservation: a successful but self-limiting incentive program By Patricia G C Ruggiero; Alexander Pfaff, Paula C Pereda, Elizabeth Nichols, Jean Paul Metzger
  55. The unemployment effects of closing the non-essential activities during the COVID-19 lockdown: The case of 8,108 Spanish municipalities By Serra, Laura; Silva, José I.; Vall·llosera, Laura
  56. Submission to the Commission on Taxation and Welfare on introducing a site value tax By E\'oin Flaherty; Constantin Gurdgiev; Ronan Lyons; Emer \'O Siochr\'u; James Pike
  57. Income-Achievement Gaps in Canada By Ryan Bacic; Angela Zheng
  58. Longing to Travel: Commute Appreciation during COVID-19 By Louise Aoustin; David Levinson
  59. Pre-Recorded Lectures, Live Online Lectures, and Student Academic Achievement By Le, Kien
  60. Solving the longitude puzzle: A story of clocks, ships and cities By Miotto, M; Pascali, L
  61. A Model for Pricing Federal Housing Finance Obligations: Working Paper 2022-06 By Congressional Budget Office
  62. Which is the best for Tunisian Economic Growth: Urbanization or Ruralization? By Bakari, Sayef; El Weriemmi, Malek
  63. Age variations and population over-coverage: is low mortality among migrants merely a data artefact? By Wallace, Matthew; Wilson, Ben
  64. Child labor bans, employment, and school attendance: Evidence from changes in the minimum working age By Kozhaya, Mireille; Martinez Flores, Fernanda
  65. Conflict as a Cause of Migration By Crippa, Andrea; d'Agostino, Giorgio; Dunne, Paul; Pieroni, Luca

  1. By: Jeff Allen; Steven Farber; Stephen Greaves; Geoffrey Clifton; Hao Wu; Somwrita Sarkar; David Levinson (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney)
    Abstract: Public transit is immensely important among recent immigrants for enabling daily travel and activity participation. The objectives of this study are to examine whether immigrants settle in areas of high or low transit accessibility and how this affects transit mode share. This is analyzed via a novel comparison of two gateway cities: Sydney, Australia and Toronto, Canada. We find that in both cities, recent immigrants have greater levels of public transit accessibility to jobs, on average, than the overall population, but the geography of immigrant settlement is more suburbanized and less clustered around commuter rail in Toronto than in Sydney. Using logistic regression models with spatial filters, we find significant positive relationships between immigrant settlement patterns and transit mode share for commuting trips, after controlling for transit accessibility and other socio-economic factors, indicating an increased reliance on public transit by recent immigrants. Importantly, via a sensitivity analysis, we find that these effects are greatest in peripheral suburbs and rural areas, indicating that recent immigrants in these areas have more risks of transport-related social exclusion due to reliance on insufficient transit service.
    Keywords: Immigrants, Public transit, Accessibility, Mode share
    JEL: R41 R14
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Theresa Kuchler; Monika Piazzesi; Johannes Stroebel
    Abstract: We review the recent literature on the determinants and effects of housing market expectations. We begin by providing an overview of existing surveys that elicit housing market expectations, and discuss how those surveys may be expanded in the future. We then document a number of facts about time-series and cross-sectional patterns of housing market expectations in these survey data, before summarizing research that has studied how individuals form these expectations. Housing market expectations are strongly influenced by recently observed house price changes, by personally or locally observed house price changes, by house price changes observed in a person's social network, and by current home ownership status. Similarly, experienced house price volatility affects expectations uncertainty. We also summarize recent work that documents how differences in housing market expectations translate into differences in individuals’ housing market behaviors, including their home purchasing and mortgage financing decisions. Finally, we highlight research on how expectations affect aggregate outcomes in the housing market.
    JEL: D83 G50 R30
    Date: 2022–04
  3. By: Redding, Stephen; Nakajima, Kentaro; Miyauchi, Yuhei
    Abstract: We provide new theory and evidence on the role of consumption access in understanding the agglomeration of economic activity. We combine smartphone data that records user location every 5 minutes of the day with economic census data on the location of service-sector establishments to measure commuting and noncommuting trips within the Greater Tokyo metropolitan area. We show that non-commuting trips are frequent, more localized than commuting trips, strongly related to the availability of nontraded services, and occur along trip chains. Guided by these empirical findings, we develop a quantitative urban model that incorporates travel to work and travel to consume non-traded services. Using the structure of the model, we estimate theoretically-consistent measures of travel access, and show that consumption access makes a sizable contribution relative to workplace access in explaining the observed variation in residents and land prices across locations. Undertaking counterfactuals for changes in travel costs, we show that abstracting from consumption trips leads to a substantial underestimate of the welfare gains from a transport improvement (because of the undercounting of trips) and leads to a distorted picture of changes in travel patterns within the city (because of the different geography of commuting and non-commuting trips).
    Keywords: agglomeration; urbanization; transportation
    JEL: O18 R12 R40
    Date: 2021–02–18
  4. By: Hao Wu; Andrew Owen; David Levinson (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney)
    Abstract: How much of the variation in transit mode share is attributable to accessibility is not well understood, despite its significant policy implications. It is hypothesized that better transit accessibility leads to higher transit mode share. This paper explains block group level transit mode share using transit accessibility in a logistic model for 48 major US metropolitan areas. Transit accessibility alone explains much of the variation in transit mode share for all 48 regions despite their geographical differences (adjusted R2 0.61, potential accessibility); models for individual cities have stable and interpretable parameters for transit accessibility. The models better explain mode share in cities with higher person weighted transit accessibility and larger populations; an adjusted R2 of 0.76 is achieved for New York City with transit accessibility as the only explanatory variable. Additional automobile accessibility and income variables modestly improve model fit. Time–decay functions fitted to accessibility measures better explain mode choice than the isochrone accessibility, and suggest the catchment area affecting transit mode choice to be within 35 minutes. This work contributes to the understanding of transit mode share by solidifying its link with accessibility, which is determined by the structure of the transport network and land development.
    Keywords: Access, transit mode share, continuous accessibility
    JEL: R41 C93
    Date: 2021
  5. By: Hao Wu; Paolo Avner; Genevieve Boisjoly; Carlos K. V. Braga; Ahmed El-Geneidy; Jie Huang; Tamara Kerzhner; Brendan Murphy; Michał A. Niedzielski; Rafael H. M. Pereira; John P. Pritchard; Anson Stewart; Jiaoe Wang; David Levinson (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney)
    Abstract: Access (the ease of reaching valued destinations) is underpinned by land use and transport infrastructure. The importance of access in transport, sustainability, and urban economics is increasingly recognized. In particular, access provides a universal unit of measurement to examine cities for the efficiency of transport and land-use systems. This paper examines the relationship between population-weighted access and metropolitan population in global metropolitan areas (cities) using 30-min cumulative access to jobs for 4 different modes of transport; 117 cities from 16 countries and 6 continents are included. Sprawling development with the intensive road network in American cities produces modest automobile access relative to their sizes, but American cities lag behind globally in transit and walking access; Australian and Canadian cities have lower automobile access, but better transit access than American cities; combining compact development with an intensive network produces the highest access in Chinese and European cities for their sizes. Hence density and mobility co-produce better access. This paper finds access to jobs increases with populations sublinearly, so doubling the metropolitan population results in less than double access to jobs. The relationship between population and access characterizes regions, countries, and cities, and significant similarities exist between cities from the same country.
    JEL: R41 R14
    Date: 2022
  6. By: Nicholas Sheard
    Abstract: The mainline railways in Australia were initially built in three different gauges, with 'breaks-of-gauge' where passengers and goods transferred between them. This paper studies how the gauge situation affected regional development and the railway network in the 20th century. Regional breaks-of-gauge caused substantial local growth, with population and employment levels increasing by around 50% within a decade relative to otherwise similar places. However, these effects were unwound within two decades of the break-of-gauge being closed. There is little evidence for the gauge-segmented railway network causing different paces of regional development. The gauge muddle also appears to have led to a more limited railway network than if a uniform gauge had been used from the beginning.
    Keywords: Agglomeration, Rail transport, Railway gauge, Trade frictions, Transport infrastructure
    JEL: H54 L92 N77 N97 R42
    Date: 2022–04
  7. By: Kirchmaier, Thomas; Langella, Monica; Manning, Alan
    Abstract: People care about crime, with the spatial distribution of both actual and perceived crime affecting the amenities from living in different areas and residential decisions. The literature finds that crime tends to happen close to the offender’s residence but does not clearly establish whether this is because the location of likely offenders and crime opportunities are close to each other or whether there is a high commuting cost for criminals. We use a rich administrative dataset from one of the biggest UK police forces to disentangle these two hypotheses, providing an estimate of the cost of distance and how local socio-economic characteristics affect both crimes that are committed and the offenders’ location. We find that the cost of distance is very high and has a great deterrence effect. We also propose a procedure for controlling for the selection bias induced by the fact that offenders’ location is only known when they are caught.
    Keywords: crime; commuting
    JEL: K42
    Date: 2021–02–19
  8. By: Stephen B. Billings; Hugh Macartney; Geunyong Park; John D. Singleton
    Abstract: In this paper, we show that the election of a new school board member causes home values in their neighborhood to rise. This increase is identified using narrowly-decided contests and is driven by non-Democratic members, whose neighborhoods appreciate about 4% on average relative to those of losing candidates. We find that student test scores in the neighborhood public schools of non-Democratic winners also relatively increase, but this effect is driven by changing student composition, including via the manipulation of attendance zones, rather than improvements in school quality (as measured by test score value-added). Notably, we detect no differential changes when comparing neighborhood or scholastic outcomes between winning and losing Democratic school board candidates. These results suggest that partisan affiliation is correlated with private motivations for seeking public office.
    JEL: D72 H75 I24
    Date: 2022–02
  9. By: Aizawa, Hiroki; Kono, Tatsuhito
    Abstract: We investigate where retail stores agglomerate in a road network with radial roads and a ring road in a two-dimensional space. Per-distance travel cost on the radial roads can be different from that on the ring road. The transition of the two-dimensional agglomeration patterns of retail stores is investigated with decreases in the travel costs. Results show 1) a difference in improvement sequences in the radial and ring roads generates a difference in the agglomeration patterns with different welfare levels and 2) how the two-dimensional geographical position of shopping agglomerations ensuring the highest welfare level differs from that in equilibrium.
    Keywords: Agglomeration, Bifurcation, Monopolistic competition, Two-dimensional road network
    JEL: L1 R1 R4
    Date: 2022–03–07
  10. By: Inoue, Atsushi (Nippon Institute for Research Advancement); Tanaka, Ryuichi (University of Tokyo)
    Abstract: We examine whether and how teachers' major fields of study affect students' achievement, exploiting within-student variation across subfields in natural science (i.e., physics, chemistry, biology, and Earth science). Using middle-school students' data from the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study and controlling student-teacher fixed effects, we find that teachers with college majors in natural sciences improve students' achievement of subfields in natural sciences corresponding to their subfields of college majors. Teaching practices explain about half of the effect of teachers' major fields. Most of the effects of teaching practices are accounted for by teachers' preparation for teaching science topics. The results are robust to potential endogenous matching between students and teachers.
    Keywords: education, teacher, natural science, college major, middle school, TIMSS
    JEL: H75 I21 J24
    Date: 2022–02
  11. By: Batabyal, Amitrajeet; Beladi, Hamid
    Abstract: In this paper, we study the commuting behavior of citizens living in or near a city who must decide how to get to work. Such citizens can always use their own car and drive to work. However, they can also take public transport to work. The two public transport options we consider involve taking either a bus or a train to work. In this setting, we perform two broad tasks. First, we analyze the car versus train choice. We compute the deadweight loss from the negative externality generated by car travel, i.e., the traffic congestion, and then discuss how a toll can achieve the efficient allocation of commuters between the car and the train modes of transport. Second, we analyze the car versus bus choice. Once again, we calculate the deadweight loss from the traffic congestion resulting from car travel and then discuss how a toll can achieve the efficient allocation of commuters between the car and the bus modes of transport that would be beneficial for all commuters.
    Keywords: Bus, Car, Toll, Traffic Congestion, Train, Travel Time
    JEL: D62 R41
    Date: 2021–11–17
  12. By: Hirte, Georg; Laes, Renée
    Abstract: Once automatic vehicles are available, working from self-driving car (WFC) in the AV's mobile office will be a real option. It allows firms to socialize land costs for office space from the office lot to road infrastructure used by AV. Employees, in turn, can switch wasted commuting time into working hours and reduce daily time tied to working. We develop a microeconomic model of employer's offer and employees choice of WFC contracts and hours. Using data for Germany and the U.S., we perform Monte Carlo studies to assess whether WFC may become reality. Eventually, we study the impact of transport pricing on these choices. Our findings is, that WFC contracts are likely to be a standard feature of large cities given current wages, office, and current and expected travel costs. There is a clear decline of hours spent working in office. On average, WFC hours and distance traveled slightly exceed commuting figures.
    Keywords: autonomous driving,telecommuting,working from car,working from home,transport economics
    JEL: R40 R41 R48
    Date: 2022
  13. By: Manman Li; Mengying Cui; David Levinson (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney)
    Abstract: This paper proposes a general framework to explore the interaction between land use and transport systems. Hypotheses about those relationships are generated. A series of statistical tests are conducted to explain the co-development of land use and transit networks for metropolitan areas at a micro-geographic scale and to disentangle causes and effects. The specific case of Minneapolis - Saint Paul (Twin Cities) metropolitan is examined using a panel of block-level land use and stop-level transit data. The results show that the development of land use, specifically, resident workers, can lead to the increase in bus demand, and thus further induce the increase in bus supply; the co-development of bus demand and supply is simultaneous on a yearly basis.
    Keywords: : accessibility, density, Granger Causality, land use, public transport, Twin Cities
    JEL: R41 R14
    Date: 2022
  14. By: Santamaria, J.
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the effect of open-door immigration policies on local labor markets. Using the sharp and unprecedented surge of Venezuelan refugees into Colombia, I study the impact on wages and employment in a context where work permits were granted at scale. To identify which labor markets immigrants are entering, I overcome limitations in offcial records and generate novel evidence of refugee settlement patterns by tracking the geographical distribution of Internet search terms that Venezuelans but not Colombians use. While offcial records suggest migrants are concentrated in a few cities, the Internet search index shows migrants are located across the country. Using this index, high-frequency labor market data, and a difference-in-differences design, I find precise null effects on employment and wages in the formal and informal sectors. A machine learning approach that compares counterfactual cities with locations most impacted by immigration yields similar results. All in all, the results suggest that open-door policies do not harm labor markets in the host community.
    Keywords: Migration; Employment; Wages; Google searches
    JEL: J61 J68 C81
    Date: 2022–02–07
  15. By: Bharti Nandwani (; (International Initiative for Impact Evaluation)
    Abstract: Using administrative data (2012-18) of schools in India, in this paper we construct a large panel comprising of more than 6 million observations to examine the extent to which female representation in school management is associated with improvement in school quality. We exploit the variation in number of female members in committees that govern government funded school activity to study our research question. Using a fixed effects methodology, we show that increased female representation in school management committees is associated with improvement in school quality, measured in terms of number of teachers hired, qualification of teachers, academic resources and student enrollment. The results are robust to including initial school characteristics interacted with year. Besides, using individual level data on learning outcomes for rural India, we provide suggestive evidence of positive association between female representation in schools management committees and learning outcomes of children, particularly for girls.
    Keywords: school management, school quality, female, public schools, local community
    JEL: I2 O1 Z18
    Date: 2022–02
  16. By: Xiaoqing Zhou
    Abstract: One of the main channels through which monetary policy stimulus affects the real economy is mortgage borrowing. This channel, however, is weakened by frictions in the mortgage market. The rapid growth of financial technology-based (FinTech) lending tends to ease these frictions, given the higher quality services provided under this new lending model. This paper establishes that the role of FinTech lending in the monetary policy transmission is further amplified by consumers’ social networks. I provide empirical evidence for this network effect using county-level data and novel identification strategies. A 1 pp increase in the FinTech market share in a county’s socially connected markets raises the county’s FinTech market share by 0.23-0.26 pps. Moreover, I find that in counties where FinTech market penetration is high, the pass-through of market interest rates to borrowers is more complete. To quantify the role of FinTech lending and its network propagation in the transmission of monetary policy shocks, I build a multi-region heterogeneous-agent model with social learning that embodies key features of FinTech lending. The model shows that the responses of consumption and refinancing to a monetary stimulus are 13% higher in the presence of FinTech lending. Almost half of this improvement is accounted for by FinTech propagation through social networks.
    Keywords: FinTech; social networks; mortgage; monetary policy; regional transmission
    JEL: E21 E44 E52 G21 G23
    Date: 2022–03–25
  17. By: Kuno, Genta; , Pradipto
    Abstract: Urban scaling analysis has shown that various aggregated urban quantities obey power-law relationships with the population size. Despite the rapid progress, direct empirical evidence that shows how the power-law exponents $\beta$ depend on the cities microstructure has been lacking. Moreover, urban scaling studies are hardly reproduced in developing countries due to inadequate official statistics. We tackle these issues by performing urban scaling analysis on Indonesian cities using globally harmonized functional cities delineations and global-scale gridded Gross Domestic Product (GDP) datasets. First, we observe that the GDP and area of Indonesian cities scale linearly with the population size. For GDP in particular, the deviations from the scaling law follow a geographical pattern. Second, we determine the economic hotspots in each city and observe that the area of the hotspots scales mildly sublinear with the population size. Interestingly, the GDP of hotspots scales sublinearly with the population size, indicating a physical growth of hotspots that is not followed by the increasing returns due to scaling. Third, by classifying the cities based on the GDP microstructure in two dimensions (heterogeneity and spatial dispersion) and examining the scaling exponents of each class, we discover a non-trivial relation between scaling behavior and the GDP microstructure. Spatial dispersion strongly affects the scaling behavior in heterogeneous cities, while such effect is weakened for homogeneous cities. Finally, we find that the scaling effect in terms of economies of scale (sublinearity of area) and increasing returns (superlinearity of GDP) is stronger for cities with spatially compact GDP distribution.
    Date: 2022–03–03
  18. By: Martin Hoesli (GSEM - Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Aberdeen); Richard Malle (LIRSA - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire de recherche en sciences de l'action - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - HESAM - HESAM Université, BNP-Paribas)
    Abstract: Purpose The article analyzes the effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on commercial real estate prices, with a particular focus on European markets. Design/methodology/approach The authors start by highlighting caveats to bear in mind when referring to direct real estate indices. The authors then analyze the behavior of commercial real estate prices during the pandemic, emphasizing differences across property types. For that purpose, the authors use data for both direct and listed real estate and further discuss changes in the main factors affecting commercial real estate pricing. The article then turns to discussing the likely trajectory of commercial real estate prices in the future. Findings The authors report that retail and hospitality properties and to a lesser extent office buildings have been affected the most by COVID-19, while the residential and industrial sectors have been less affected by the crisis. The authors maintain that the future trajectory of prices will vary across sectors and that the type and location of assets will become increasingly important in their valuation. Originality/value This paper provides for a better understanding of the behavior of commercial real estate prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.
    Keywords: Pandemic,COVID-19,Commercial real estate prices,Office,Retail,Hospitality,G12,G23,R33
    Date: 2022
  19. By: David Levinson (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney)
    Abstract: The cumulative opportunities measure accessibility is defined as the number of opportunities reachable under a given time threshold. The spacing between transit stations is fundamental for accessibility by transit, yet the stations cannot be easily relocated in built-up areas. This paper examines the relation between transit stop spacing and person-weighted accessibility for an urban train route through an analytical model, and identifies that for each type of transit (e.g., given some combination of vehicle acceleration, deceleration, top speed, dwell time, platform type), an optimal stop spacing exists that maximizes accessibility; neither short nor excessive stop spacing are efficient in providing accessibility. Rail is used as example, though the model and findings are applicable to bus services as well. This paper brings attention to the importance of stop spacing in accessibility, and provides guidelines for transit planning for the operational improvement of transit accessibility.
    JEL: R41 R14
    Date: 2022
  20. By: Sam Sims (UCL Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities); Asma Benhenda (UCL Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities)
    Abstract: School systems often experience shortages of maths and science teachers, reflecting difficulties in both recruiting and retaining people qualified to teach these subjects. In England, teachers with maths and science degrees face a higher outside pay ratio than other teachers and also tend to leave the profession at higher rates. We evaluate a policy aimed at improving retention by providing targeted uplifts in pay worth 8% of gross salary for early-career maths and physics teachers. Leveraging variation in eligibility across time, regions and school subjects, we find that eligible teachers are 23% less likely to leave teaching in state funded schools in years they were eligible for payments. This implies a pay-elasticity-of-exit of -3, which is similar to results from evaluations of similar policies in the United States. Our analysis suggests that the cost per additional teacher retained through the policy is 32% lower than training an equivalent replacement teacher. Taken together, these results suggest that persistent shortages of maths and science teachers can be reduced through targeted pay supplement policies.
    Keywords: teachers; teacher retention; financial incentives.
    JEL: I20
    Date: 2022–04
  21. By: Atila Abdulkadiroglu; Tommy Andersson
    Abstract: School districts in the US and around the world are increasingly moving away from traditional neighborhood school assignment, in which pupils attend closest schools to their homes. Instead, they allow families to choose from schools within district boundaries. This creates a market with parental demand over publicly-supplied school seats. More frequently than ever, this market for school seats is cleared via market design solutions grounded in recent advances in matching and mechanism design theory. The literature on school choice is reviewed with emphasis placed on the trade-offs among policy objectives and best practices in the design of admissions processes. It is concluded with a brief discussion about how data generated by assignment algorithms can be used to answer contemporary empirical questions about school effectiveness and policy interventions.
    JEL: D02 D47 I26
    Date: 2022–03
  22. By: Gergõ Tóth (Agglomeration and Social Networks Lendület Research Group, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Tóth Kálmán u. 4, 1097 Budapest, Hungary and Spatial Dynamics Lab, University College Dublin, D04 V1W8, Dublin, Ireland); Zoltán Elekes (Agglomeration and Social Networks Lendület Research Group, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Tóth Kálmán u. 4, 1097 Budapest, Hungary and Centre for Regional Science at Umea University, Umea University, 901 87 Umea, Sweden); Adam Whittle (Spatial Dynamics Lab, University College Dublin, D04 V1W8, Dublin, Ireland); Changjun Lee (Spatial Dynamics Lab, University College Dublin, D04 V1W8, Dublin, Ireland andDepartment of Media and Social Informatics, Hanyang University, Ansan-si, South Korea); Dieter F. Kogler (Spatial Dynamics Lab, University College Dublin, D04 V1W8, Dublin, Ireland Insight Centre for Data Analytics, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland)
    Abstract: This paper assesses the network robustness of the technological capability base of 269 European metropolitan areas against the potential elimination of some of their capabilities. By doing so it provides systematic evidence on how network robustness conditioned the economic resilience of these regions in the context of the 2008 economic crisis. The analysis concerns calls in the relevant literature for more in-depth analysis on the link between regional economic network structures and the resilience of regions to economic shocks. By adopting a network science approach that is novel to economic geographic inquiry, the objective is to stress-test the technological resilience of regions by utilizing information on the co-classification of CPC classes listed on European Patent Office patent documents. We find that European metropolitan areas show heterogeneous levels of technology network robustness. Further findings from regression analysis indicate that metropolitan regions with a more robust technological knowledge network structure exhibit higher levels of resilience with respect to changes in employment rates. This finding is robust to various random and targeted elimination strategies concerning the most frequently combined technological capabilities. Regions with high levels of employment in industry but with vulnerable technological capability base are particularly challenged by this aspect of regional economic resilience.
    Keywords: regional economic resilience, network robustness, metropolitan regions, technology space
    JEL: C53 O30 R11
    Date: 2022–01
  23. By: Marijn A. Bolhuis; Judd N. L. Cramer; Lawrence H. Summers
    Abstract: We study how the recent run-up in housing and rental prices affects the outlook for inflation in the United States. Housing held down overall inflation in 2021. Despite record growth in private market-based measures of home prices and rents, government measured residential services inflation was only four percent for the twelve months ending in January 2022. After explaining the mechanical cause for this divergence, we estimate that, if past relationships hold, the residential inflation components of the CPI and PCE are likely to move close to seven percent during 2022. These findings imply that housing will make a significant contribution to overall inflation in 2022, ranging from one percentage point for headline PCE to 2.6 percentage points for core CPI. We expect residential inflation to remain elevated in 2023.
    JEL: E01 E31 E37 R21 R31
    Date: 2022–02
  24. By: Cigdem Gedikli (Swansea University); Robert Hill (University of Graz); Oleksandr Talavera (University of Birmingham); Okan Yilmaz (Swansea University)
    Abstract: In this paper, we provide novel evidence on the additional costs associated with smoking. While it may not be surprising that smokers pay a rent premium, we are the first to quantify the size of this premium. Our approach is innovative in that we use text mining methods that extract implicit information on landlords' attitudes to smoking directly from Zoopla UK rental listings. Applying hedonic, matching and machine-learning methods to the text-mined data, we find a positive smoking rent premium of around 6 percent. This translates into 14.40GBP of indirect costs, in addition to 40GBP of weekly spending on cigarettes estimated for an average smoker in the UK.
    Keywords: Smoking; Rental market; Hedonic regression; Matching; Text mining; Random forest; Smoking rent premium; Contracting frictions
    JEL: I30 R21 R31
    Date: 2022–03
  25. By: Exner, Andreas; Weinzierl, Carla; Cepoiu, Livia; Arzberger, Stephanie; Spash, Clive L.
    Abstract: Edible cities enable the public to harvest produce on public land, supported by public governance arrangements between city administrations and civil society. The main goal of such initiatives is to transform food systems. The project investigated edible cities by comparing cases in Austria, Germany and France. Impacts of edible city initiatives were assessed by expert interviews. The project aimed to generate policy knowledge on the process, outcomes, and good practices of edible city initiatives, which are potentially relevant for the Vienna Smart City strategy and its possible further development towards smart food and public spaces. Edible city initiatives that are jointly driven by the municipality and civil society actors are most promising with regard to citizen engagement, collective empowerment, and the transformation of urban food systems. To this end, all actors involved have to develop a shared vision of edible city, and implement it cautiously, though consistently and in a committed, participatory, and transparent way. This report outlines concrete policy recommendations for successfully transforming Vienna into an edible city.
    Keywords: governance arrangement, gardening, civil society, urban development
    Date: 2021
  26. By: Yang Gao; David Levinson (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney)
    Abstract: This paper explores the travel time variance, occupancy heterogeneity level, and average network traffic flow of Minneapolis-St. Paul freeway network and determines the time-lag relationship between travel time variance and the spatio-temporal distribution of congestion (occupancy). It finds COVID-19 reduced the travel time variability of the urban freeway network and notably makes visible a double-humped peak period in the diurnal traffic flow curve.
    Keywords: covid-19, travel time reliability, macroscopic fundamental diagram, hysteresis, diurnal curve
    JEL: R41
    Date: 2021
  27. By: Patricio Araya-Córdova; Dante Contreras; Jorge Rodriguez; Paulina Sepulveda
    Abstract: Rewarding teachers on the basis of student performance is a growing trend in educational policy. This paper estimates the effects of a policy that ties payments with teachers’ pedagogical skills instead. We study a large-scale reform in Chile that introduced financial incentives tied to a teacher evaluation system. Using a unique administrative data set of over 500,000 student-teacher-year matches, we estimate the effect of the policy on student performance exploiting the program’s gradual roll-out through a differences-in-differences analysis. We document precise, null effects of the policy on student math and language standardized test scores. Estimating a structural model of teacher skills and student performance, we show that by making incentives more homogeneous across the distribution of teacher characteristics policymakers can improve the policy’s effects on student performance and overall welfare.
    Date: 2021–04
  28. By: zu Ermgassen, Sophus; Drewniok, Michal; Bull, Joseph; Walker, Christine Corlet; Mancini, Mattia; Ryan-Collins, Josh; Serrenho, André Cabrera
    Abstract: Secure housing is a fundamental human right. However, potential conflicts between housing and sustainability objectives remain under-researched. We explore the impact of current English government housing policy, and alternative housing strategies, on national carbon and biodiversity goals. Using material flow and land use change/biodiversity models, we estimate under current policy housing alone would consume 113% of England’s cumulative carbon budget for 2050 (2.9/2.5Gt [50% chance of <1.5°C]); 12% from the construction and operation of newbuilds and 101% from the existing stock. Housing expansion also potentially conflicts with England’s biodiversity targets. However, meeting greater housing need without rapid housing expansion is theoretically possible. We review solutions including improving affordability by reducing demand for homes as financial assets, expanding social housing, and reducing underutilisation of floor-space. Transitioning to housing strategies which slow housing expansion and accelerate low-carbon retrofits would achieve lower emissions, but face an unfavourable political economy and structural economic barriers.
    Date: 2022–03–08
  29. By: Giulio Cainelli (University of Padua); Carlo Ciccarelli (DEF, University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Roberto Ganau (University of Padua and LSE)
    Abstract: We study how changes in the political-administrative hierarchy of a country affect urban development. We exploit the 1865 administrative reform occurred in the aftermath of Italian unification as a quasi-natural experiment to assess whether district’s capital cities endowed with supra-municipal administrative functions by law gained a population growth premium compared to similar non-capital cities in the period 1871-1921. We rely on difference-in-differences and event study estimation strategies, and find that district’s capital cities recorded a time-persistent population growth premium. Three main mechanisms explain our results: increases in public employment; increases in manufacturing employment; and development of the infrastructure endowment.
    Keywords: Administrative reforms; political-administrative hierarchy; urban development; Italian unification.
    JEL: H11 N13 O11 R11
    Date: 2022–04–02
  30. By: Mengying Cui; David Levinson (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney)
    Abstract: This study examines path flows for road networks. Path flows sum individual route choices from individual travelers, associated with specific path objective. We estimate these flows for each cost factor of auto travel: time, safety, emission, and monetary costs, as well as their composite, internal and full cost of travel. For each factor we find the route with the minimum cumulative cost. We further explore the extent to which each cost factor contributes to explaining the observed link traffic flows given an estimated home-to-work demand pattern. The results of the Minneapolis - St. Paul metropolitan area indicate that flows from multiple path types, associated with different internal cost components, along with distance, provide the best fit.
    Keywords: traffic assignment, route choice, full cost pricing
    JEL: R41
    Date: 2021
  31. By: Jackson Dorsey; Ashley Langer; Shaun McRae
    Abstract: This paper estimates an imperfect information discrete choice model of drivers’ refueling preferences and analyzes the implications of these preferences for electric vehicle (EV) adoption. Drivers respond four times more to stations’ long-run average prices than to current prices and value travel time at $27.54/hour. EV adopters with home charging receive $829 per vehicle in benefits from avoiding travel to gas stations, whereas refueling travel and waiting time costs increase by $9,169 for drivers without home charging. Increasing the charging speed of the existing network yields 4.7 times greater time savings than a proportional increase in the number of stations.
    JEL: L9 Q42 Q55
    Date: 2022–03
  32. By: Antonio Ciccone; Jan Nimczik
    Abstract: After the end of World War II in 1945, millions of refugees arrived in what in 1949 became the Federal Republic of Germany. We examine their e ect on today's productivity, wages, income, rents, education, and population density at the municipality level. Our identification strategy is based on a spatial discontinuity in refugee settlement at the border between the French and US occupation zones in the South-West of post-war Germany. These occupation zones were established in 1945 and dissolved in 1949. The spatial discontinuity arose because the US zone admitted refugees during the 1945-1949 occupation period whereas the French zone restricted access. By 1950, refugee settlement had raised population density on the former US side of the 1945-1949 border significantly above density on the former French side. Before the war, there never had been significant di erences in population density. The higher density on the former US side persists entirely in 2020 and coincides with higher rents as well as higher productivity, wages, and education levels. We examine whether today's economic di erences across the former border are the result of the di erence in refugee admission; the legacy of other policy di erences between the 1945-1949 occupation zones; or the consequence of socio-economic di erences predating WWII. Taken together, our results indicate that today's economic di erences are the result of agglomeration e ects triggered by the arrival of refugees in the former US zone. We estimate that exposure to the arrival of refugees raised income per capita by around 13% and hourly wages by around 10%.
    Keywords: immigration, productivity wages, refugess, long-run effects
    JEL: O4 O11 R11
    Date: 2022–04
  33. By: Erfurth, Philipp Emanuel
    Abstract: This study examines regional inequality among Habsburg regions from the 19th century to today's EU by using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software to recreate historical regions in present-day projections. The findings suggests that regional disparities are markedly higher today than in the 19th century, despite rapid convergence in the past two decades. The study thus provides evidence of retrospective determinism in the study of the Habsburg economy and suggests that, although regional EU policy has been successful over the past two decades, further policy measures are needed to make up lost ground. For the 1867–1913 timeframe, the study finds two regional convergence clubs. Over the entire 1870–2018 period under review, the study finds no evidence of convergence. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper)
    Date: 2022–03–31
  34. By: Alexius Wadell; Matthew Guttenberg; Christopher P. Kempes; Venkatasubramanian Viswanathan
    Abstract: Enabling widespread electric vehicle (EV) adoption requires substantial build-out of charging infrastructure in the coming decade. We formulate the charging infrastructure needs as a scaling analysis problem and use it to estimate the EV infrastructure needs of the US at a county-level resolution. Surprisingly, we find that the current EV infrastructure deployment scales super-linearly with population, deviating from the sub-linear scaling of gasoline stations and other infrastructure. We discuss how this demonstrates the infancy of EV station abundance compared to other mature transportation infrastructures. By considering the power delivery of existing gasoline stations, and appropriate EV efficiencies, we estimate the EV infrastructure gap at the county level, providing a road map for future EV infrastructure expansion. Our reliance on scaling analysis allows us to make a unique forecast in this domain.
    Date: 2022–04
  35. By: Cronin, David; McQuinn, Kieran
    Date: 2021
  36. By: Tamás Bakó (Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies,Budapest, Hungary andBudapest Metropolitan University, Hungary); Judit Kálmán (Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies,Budapest, Hungary andCorvinus University Budapest, Hungary)
    Abstract: In this study we reveal the impact of spatial clustering of occupations on the probability of employment and commuting time, with particular emphasis on differences between genders and household types. Based on Hungarian 2011 census data our research confirmed previous results of some USA studies according to which women work in less spatially clustered occupations compared to men. Our most important result is that more clustered the occupation, the longer the commuting time, and the lower the probability of employment. The effect of occupational clustering on commuting time is larger for women regardless of household type and for those living in a relationship compared to singles. Our further result is that the greater the occupational diversity of the place of residence, the shorter the commuting time and higher the probability of employment, and the occupational diversity of the place of residence modifies the effect of occupational clustering on commuting time.
    Keywords: Commuting time, occupations, employment probabilities
    JEL: R12 J22
    Date: 2022–03
  37. By: Pietrostefani, Elisabetta
    Abstract: Through an urban renewal process driven by a well‐resourced Lebanese diaspora and foreign investment, Beirut has undergone conspicuous morphological densification, characterised by parcel aggregation and exploitation of building height. Planning agencies have contributed to these transformations, deliberately involved in the production of illegality, and contributing to unplanned urban development. Although recent literature has substantially furthered our understanding of deregulated planning in Beirut, little is known of the preferences of residents with regards to the urban development process. This article sheds light on how morphological densification affects the complex values attached by residents to their urban environments using a novel data set and mixed‐methods approach. It explores how dramatic urban restructuring affects resident values of architectural amenities and neighbourhood belonging. Findings show that although living in areas with different rates of building change does not affect preferences for architectural amenities, it affects resident socio‐political activism towards the preservation of their built environment. Residents living in areas with high buildingchange rates had almost 50% lower odds of being willing to stop new construction near their location of residence because of their lack of confidence in the planning system. Neighbourhood belonging is not significantly affected by construction rates, but substantially increases both with the number of years lived in a neighbourhood and in locations with better building conditions, confirming a role for the built environment.
    Keywords: Beirut; deregulated planning; Lebanon; neighbourhood belonging; urban form; willingness to pay
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2022–02–23
  38. By: Van, Germinal
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the fundamental causes that help us understand why the Black community is the racial and ethnic group that is the least well-treated among all minority groups by the police. Many studies have argued that the racial bias of the police towards Blacks is the reason why Blacks are condescendingly treated by the police, which implies that the police in America are racist. This paper argues, however, that the condescending treatment that Blacks receive from the police is not fundamentally based on race but rather on their socioeconomic status. The empirical results of our analysis suggest that the relationship between the socioeconomic status of Blacks and police arrests of Blacks is statistically significant. We, therefore, concluded that the socioeconomic status of Blacks Granger-caused their number of police arrests. Therefore, the primary motivation of the police to treat Blacks and arrest them is based on the assumption of their low-income status rather than the mere fact that they are Black.
    Keywords: Econometrics, Time-series, Granger Causality, Autoregressive model, Economic Theory, Empirical Analysis
    JEL: C10 C12 C32 C4 C5 Z13
    Date: 2022–03–04
  39. By: Michael T. Cassidy; Janet Currie
    Abstract: Housing is one of the areas where it may be most critical for poor people to have access to legal representation in civil cases. We study the roll-out of New York City’s Universal Access to Counsel program (UA), using detailed address-level housing court data from 2016 to 2019. The program, which became law in August 2017, offers free legal representation in housing court to tenants with income at or below 200 percent of the federal poverty guideline. We find that tenants who gain access to lawyers are less likely to be subject to possessory judgments, face smaller monetary judgments, and are less likely to have eviction warrants issued against them. Lawyers have larger effects in poorer places and in those with larger shares of non-citizens. UA also reduces executed evictions in these locations. Our results support the idea that legal representation in civil procedures can have an important positive impact on the lives of poor people.
    JEL: I3 I38 K15 K4
    Date: 2022–03
  40. By: Delaney, Judith (University of Bath); Devereux, Paul J. (University College Dublin)
    Abstract: In recent years there has been a plethora of empirical papers by economists concerning the effects of academic rank in school or college on subsequent outcomes of students. We review this recent literature, describing the difficult identification and measurement issues, the assumptions and methodologies used in the literature, and the main findings. Accounting for ability or achievement and across a range of countries, ages, and types of educational institutions, students that are more highly ranked in their class or their grade have been found to have better long-term outcomes. The effect sizes are generally large when compared to magnitudes found for other factors and interventions. Rank effects can provide useful insight into other educational phenomena such as the extent to which students benefit from high ability peers and the presence of a gender gap in STEM. However, the state of knowledge has probably not reached the point where the empirical findings from this literature have practical implications for policy intervention to improve outcomes of students.
    Keywords: academic rank, education, human capital, social comparisons, peer effects, STEM
    JEL: I21 J16 J24
    Date: 2022–03
  41. By: LIU Yang
    Abstract: This study provides some of the first evidence for unemployment of long-term immigrants in Japan, considering heterogeneity among three immigrant groups from Asia, U.S. and UK, and South America. This study uses large-scale population census data from Japan, conducted in 2010, which is the most updated census data including education and other detailed individual information in the country. First, compared to the natives, the unemployment rate is generally lower for U.S. and UK immigrants, while it is higher for immigrants from Asian and South American countries. However, controlling for human capital, individual and household characteristics, and residential regions, the study finds that immigrants from all the sample countries have higher unemployment probabilities compared to natives. Further, the gaps of permanent employment still exist after controlling for observed factors including industries and occupations, except for women from the U.S. and UK. Moreover, the non-liner decomposition analysis result indicates the different contributions of observed factors among immigrant groups. The results suggest that immigration policies that consider the differences among immigration groups may achieve better outcomes, and that ethnic penalties should be tackled for both high-performing and low-performing immigrant groups.
    Date: 2022–03
  42. By: INOUE Hiroyasu; NAKAJIMA Kentaro; OKAZAKI Tetsuji; SAITO Yukiko
    Abstract: This study empirically investigates the role of face-to-face contact in innovation, by exploiting the Spanish flu pandemic in Japan from 1918 to 1921, which prohibitively increased the cost of face-to-face contact between inventors. By using unique patent bibliographic data for this period, we estimate the pandemic's impact on innovation for face-to-face contact-intensive technologies using the Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach. The estimation results show that during the pandemic, patent applications for face-to-face contact-intensive technologies significantly decreased, and did not fully recover even after the pandemic ended. We also find that the negative impact is driven by a decrease in new entries into patent applications, that is, patent applications by the inventors who applied for patents for the first time. We further find that productive inventors had experienced incidences of co-invention during their early careers. These results suggest that the decrease in face-to-face contacts with colleagues and seniors in the preliminary stages of inventors' careers reduced the opportunity to nurture new inventors.
    Date: 2022–03
  43. By: UESUGI, Iichiro; HIRAGA, Kazuki; MANABE, Masashi; YOSHINO, Naoyuki
    Abstract: This study is the first to exhaustively calculate the degree of concentration in regional banking markets using the outstanding amount of loans and deposits at branches and headquarters of financial institutions located in Japan. Calculating the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for loans and deposits for each prefecture and for each urban employment area for the period 2005–2019, we show differences in the HHI across regions and its development over time. Furthermore, we decompose HHI into two factors, namely one related to the number of financial institutions and the other to deviation from the mean market share.We also examine the extent of the increase in the HHI caused by mergers of financial institutions and its persistence. The main results obtained are as follows. First, loan and deposit HHI show an upward trend; however, the HHI of loans in large metropolitan areas, which were already low, show a trend of further decline. Competition among financial institutions becomes tougher in large metropolitan regions. Second, increases in HHI are not only due to reductions in the number of financial institutions but also to increasing variations in financial institutions’ market share. And third, while the increase in loan HHI due to financial institution mergers is sustained for a certain period, its duration tends to be shorter in regions with a low market concentration.
    Keywords: Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, Market concentration, Competition, Financial institution mergers
    Date: 2022–03
  44. By: László Czaller (Agglomeration and Social Networks Lendület Research Group, Budapest, H-1097, Hungary and Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, H-1097, Hungary); Zoltán Hermann (Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Budapest, H-1097, Hungary andInstitute of Economics, Corvinus University, Budapest, HU-1093, Hungary)
    Abstract: While most empirical studies document that cognitive and social skills are strong predictors of individual earnings, their impact is not homogenous in space. We argue that dense urban settings utilize cognitive and social skills more intensively than rural areas, therefore the labour market return to these skills is higher in cities. Using data from a representative survey recording the skills requirements of Hungarian firms, we show that social skills are rewarded more in dense urban areas. Surprisingly, this pattern is not observed for cognitive skills. We use instrumental variables strategy to correct for measurement errors in skills, and to deal with the endogeneity of agglomeration. Our results are robust to alternative agglomeration measures and a large set of controls, however, returns to skills vary considerably across worker groups and industries.
    Keywords: agglomeration, cognitive and social skills, wages, urban labour markets
    JEL: J24 J31 R12
    Date: 2022–02
  45. By: Jamal, Haroon
    Abstract: Policy makers, NGOs, researchers as well as students of economics and public administration require up-to-date information or database that can facilitate in making development policy decisions, in providing criteria for allocation of financial resources and in selecting specific areas for safety-net programs and geographical targeted intervention. This study quantifies household multiple deprivations with the help of 18 socioeconomic indicators, arranged into five dimensions: education, health, housing quality, housing services and asset poverty. At the first stage of aggregation, composite indices for these dimensions or sectors are developed, while overall indices of multiple deprivations for provinces, region and districts of Pakistan are assembled at the second stage. Besides furnishing the estimates of current level of deprivation based on the latest available data, the report also highlights inter-temporal changes during the period 2011 and 2020. District representative nationwide Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey data for both years are used for this research. The findings reveal declining trends in the level of deprivation; however, the rates of decay across provinces, region and districts are significantly diverse.
    Keywords: Pakistan, Multiple Deprivations, District Indices
    JEL: I31 I32
    Date: 2022–03–07
  46. By: Kurzhanskiy, Alex PhD; Lapardhaja, Servet
    Abstract: From March 2020 through March 2021, researchers monitored three San Francisco Bay Area transit agencies: two large – Alameda-Contra Costa Transit District (AC Transit), Valley Transportation Authority (VTA); and one small – Tri Delta Transit. As the lockdown was imposed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, white-collar commuters, students, and the elderly stopped using public transit. Initially, ridership fell 90 percent, and then over the year slowly climbed to less than 50 percent for AC Transit and VTA, and to around 60 percent for Tri Delta Transit. The pace of recovery was not steady as ridership declined during protests in June 2020, during fare reinstatements in autumn 2020 and during the second COVID-19 wave in winter 2020-21. Agencies’ responses to the pandemic consisted of three parts: 1) maintaining health and safety of their employees; 2) minimizing COVID risk for their riders by keeping buses clean and enabling social distancing through capping the number of passengers on buses; and 3) changing their service. There was a direct relationship between the socioeconomic status of the population and transit ridership during the year studied. Higher ridership was observed in low-income areas with a high percentage of Latino, Black and Asian populations. These are generally renters, who do not have a car, but have to go to work either because they are essential workers and/ or are undocumented immigrants who cannot afford staying jobless. On the other hand, in wealthy areas of the Bay Area transit activity all but disappeared.
    Keywords: Engineering, COVID-19, public transit, bus transit operations, ridership, public health, demographics, social equity
    Date: 2021–11–01
  47. By: Suari-Andreu, Eduard; van Vliet, Olaf
    Abstract: In this study we investigate public transfer receipt and assimilation of EU migrants in the Netherlands. To do so, we use high quality administrative panel data containing comprehensive information on all public transfers individuals can receive. Results show that, after controlling for composition effects, EU migrants are less likely to receive public transfers compared to Dutch natives and they receive significantly lower amounts conditional on transfer receipt. These differences are particularly large during the �first years after arrival in the Netherlands. Three to five years after arrival, the differences become indistinguishable from zero, indicating that EU migrants gradually assimilate into public transfer receipt. The size and the sign of the differences depend on whether we consider contributory or non-contributory transfers. Further exploration by means of an Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition shows that the composition effects are mostly due to differences in age and variables related to family structure.
    Keywords: Migration, Mobility, European Union, Public Transfers, Migrant Assimilation
    JEL: D1 D14 H2 H53 H55 J6 J61
    Date: 2022–03–21
  48. By: Ahmed El-Geneidy; David Levinson (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney)
    Abstract: Accessibility, the ease of reaching destination, is the most comprehensive land use and transport systems performance measure (Levinson & Wu, 2020; Wachs & Kumagai, 1973; Wu & Levinson, 2020). Accessibility has been applied in planning research since the 1950s (Hansen, 1959), and still today, we find major barriers to adopting it in practice (Handy, 2020). Advances in computing and software have enabled researchers to generate complex measures of accessibility with higher spatial and temporal resolutions moving accessibility research at a fast pace, while the implementation of accessibility, in practice, lags (Boisjoly & El-Geneidy, 2017). Even simple measures, such as the cumulative opportunities measures of accessibility, confront challenges in adoption.
    JEL: R41 R14 R52
    Date: 2022
  49. By: Monica Pratesi; Stefano Marchetti; Caterina Giusti; Gaia Bertarelli; Francesco Schirripa Spagnolo; Luigi Biggeri
    Abstract: In the last decades, the fight against poverty is assuming a more and more central role in Europe. Indeed, among the goals of Agenda 2030, one of the priorities is to end poverty, in all its forms and dimensions. Moreover, the demand for poverty and living conditions data referred to local areas and/or sub-populations, has become urgent because policymakers need to know the spatial distribution for implementing policies and distributing resources. At the same time is essential to measure within-country differences in the cost of living, assessing and comparing poverty levels in real terms. Scanner data on retail price represent an interesting data source to renew the computation of sub national Spatial Consumer Price Indexes. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a new approach to construct sub national Spatial Consumer Price Indexes for Italian provinces by using scanner data with a particular focus on the poorest part of the Italian population.
    Keywords: Local poverty indicators, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Inequality, Official Statistics
    JEL: C18 C80 C83
    Date: 2021–12–01
  50. By: Alex Hollingsworth; Taylor Jaworski; Carl Kitchens; Ivan J. Rudik
    Abstract: We develop a spatial equilibrium model to evaluate the efficiency and distributional impacts of the leading air quality regulation in the United States: the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). We link our economic model to an integrated assessment model for air pollutants which allows us to capture endogenous changes in emissions, amenities, labor, and production. Our results show that the NAAQS generate over $23 billion of annual welfare gains. This is roughly 80 percent of welfare gains of the second-best NAAQS design, but only 25 percent of the first-best emission pricing policy. The NAAQS benefits are concentrated in a small set of cities, impose substantial costs on manufacturing workers, improve amenities in counties in compliance with the NAAQS, and reduce emissions in compliance counties through general equilibrium channels. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for geographic reallocation and equilibrium responses when quantifying the effects of environmental regulation.
    JEL: F18 Q52 Q53
    Date: 2022–03
  51. By: Jones, Daniel (University of Pittsburgh); Shi, Ying (Syracuse University)
    Abstract: The Voting Rights Act (VRA) of 1965 removed barriers to voting for Black Americans in the South; existing work documents that this in turn led to shifts in the distribution of public funding towards areas with a higher share of Black residents and also reduced Black-White earnings disparities. We consider how expanded access to the ballot improved the well-being of children, and in doing so document that the immediate effects of expanded voting access last well into the next generation. Specifically, within a cohort-based differences-in-differences design, we test how early-life exposure to the VRA differentially impacted later-life outcomes of Black Americans. We find that increased exposure to the VRA before the age 18 leads to higher educational attainment and earnings in adulthood for Black Americans, with little or no impact on whites.
    Keywords: Voting Rights Act, racial inequality, voting, childhood exposure
    JEL: J15 N12 D72
    Date: 2022–02
  52. By: Emanuele Amodio; Michele Battisti; Antonio Francesco Gravina; Andrea Mario Lavezzi; Giuseppe Maggio
    Abstract: Do school openings trigger Covid-19 diffusion when school-age vaccination is available? We investigate this question using a unique geo-referenced high frequency database on school openings, vaccinations, and Covid-19 cases from the Italian region of Sicily. The analysis focuses on the change of Covid-19 diffusion after school opening in a homogeneous geographical territory. The identification of causal effects derives from a comparison of the change in cases before and after school opening in 2020/21, when vaccination was not available, and in 2021/22, when the vaccination campaign targeted individuals of age 12-19 and above 19. The results indicate that, while school opening determined an increase in the growth rate of Covid-19 cases in 2020/2021, this effect has been substantially reduced by school-age vaccination in 2021/2022. In particular, we find that an increase of approximately 10% in the vaccination rate of school-age population reduces the growth rate of Covid-19 cases after school opening by approximately 1.4%. In addition, a counterfactual simulation suggests that a permanent no vaccination scenario would have implied an increase of 19% in ICU beds occupancy.
    Date: 2022–03
  53. By: Görg, Holger (Kiel Institute for the World Economy); Mulyukova, Alina (Kiel Institute for the World Economy)
    Abstract: This paper exploits time and geographic variation in the adoption of Special Economic Zones in India to assess the direct and spillover effects of the program. We combine geocoded firm-level data and geocoded SEZs using a concentric ring approach, thus creating a novel dataset of firms with their assigned SEZ status. To overcome the selection bias we employ inverse probability weighting with time-varying covariates in a difference-in-differences frame-work. Our analysis yields that conditional on controlling for initial selection, SEZs induced no further productivity gains for within SEZ firms, on average. This is predominantly driven by relatively less productive firms, whereas more productive firms experienced significant productivity gains. However, SEZs created negative externalities for firms in the vicinity which attenuate with distance. Neighbouring domestic firms, large firms, manufacturing firms and non-importer firms are the main losers of the program. Evidence points at the diversion of inputs from non-SEZ to SEZ-firms as a potential mechanism.
    Keywords: firm performance, agglomerations, Special Economic Zones, India
    JEL: O18 O25 P25 R10 R58 R23 F21 F60
    Date: 2022–03
  54. By: Patricia G C Ruggiero; Alexander Pfaff, Paula C Pereda, Elizabeth Nichols, Jean Paul Metzger
    Abstract: Brazil's ecological intergovernmental fiscal transfer (ICMS-E) is a conservation incentive for protected areas (PAs). It redistributes tax revenues to reward municipalities for hosting PAs. To quantify its impact on the creation of state and municipal PAs, we used panel regressions on a longitudinal municipality dataset that combined information on PA creation and ICMS-E implementation for 2060 municipalities in 6 Brazilian states in the Atlantic Forest region, from 1987 to 2016. We found that the percent of the municipal area covered with state or municipal PAs increased as a consequence of ICMS-E implementation. However, the magnitude of this effect declined as the ICMS-E revenue is shared more widely with the expansion of PAs, reducing the gain from new PAs. We also found that ICMS-E policy primarily spurred the creation of PAs with less restrictive rules - similar to IUCN category V reserves − both by municipalities and states. For more restrictive PAs with higher local costs for municipalities, ICMS-E promoted state-proposed PAs but not municipal. Our results suggest that state institutions use ICMS-E to incentivize local implementation of their conservation preferences, including strict conservation, while municipal governments respond mostly with low-cost actions to increase their revenues.
    Keywords: Ecological ICMS; protected areas, environmental policy
    JEL: Q50 Q57 Q58
    Date: 2022–03–24
  55. By: Serra, Laura; Silva, José I.; Vall·llosera, Laura
    Abstract: We study the labour market impact of the confinement measures implemented in Spain to halt the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2020. We use data from 8,108 municipalities to quantify the short-term impact of the temporary shutdown of non-essential activity on local unemployment rates. Ordinary least squares regressions show that an increment of 10 percentage points in the share of firms with non-essential activities increases the unemployment rate between 0.08 and 0.22 percentage points, depending on the population size of the municipalities. We only find this positive effect in municipalities above 2,395 inhabitants. The lockdown explains around 50% of the observed increase in the unemployment rates of these municipalities. We also look at the impact by gender and age and find that the lockdown of these activities affects males and workers between 25 and 45 years old by relatively more.
    Keywords: COVID-19, lockdown, unemployment, non-essential activities, municipalities
    JEL: J18 J64 R23
    Date: 2022–02–24
  56. By: E\'oin Flaherty; Constantin Gurdgiev; Ronan Lyons; Emer \'O Siochr\'u; James Pike
    Abstract: This submission to the Irish Commission on Taxation and Welfare advocates the introduction of a site value tax in Ireland. Ireland has high and volatile property prices, constraining social and economic development. Site values are the main driver of these phenomena. Taxing site values would reduce both the level and volatility of property prices, and thus help to alleviate these problems. Site value tax has many other beneficial features. For example, it captures price gains due to the community and government rather than owners' efforts and thus diminishes the incentive to buy land for speculative reasons. Site value tax can be used to finance infrastructural investments, help facilitate site assembly for development and as a support for the maintenance of protected structures. Site value tax is also a tax on wealth.
    Date: 2022–03
  57. By: Ryan Bacic; Angela Zheng
    Abstract: This paper presents new evidence on the relationship between family income and child education outcomes in Canada. We use administrative education data linked to tax records to determine the test score differentials between children from families in the top and bottom income deciles (P90-P10 gap). Across students in Grade 4 and 7, we find a P90-P10 gap of around 0.65 standard deviations from 2012 to 2015. This gap is markedly lower than documented gaps for other countries. However, there is important heterogeneity: among Indigenous children the P90-P10 gap is 0.8 standard deviations and among students with special needs it is 0.7 standard deviations. In contrast, for students who are not in either of those groups, the P90-P10 gap is only 0.4. While our findings suggest low inequities in education achievement by income overall, there are large gaps between high and low-income students for certain subpopulations that need further attention from policymakers.
    Keywords: income inequality; education attainment gradients
    JEL: I20 J15 J13
    Date: 2022–04
  58. By: Louise Aoustin; David Levinson (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney)
    Abstract: Based on a survey of 197 Sydneysiders undertaken during the COVID-19 Lockdown, this study shows time spent in transport was missed the most by public transport users, followed by push bike users, e-bike users, pedestrians, and finally drivers. Men missed time spent in transport more than women. It also finds that for public transport users, the more transfers, the less they miss time spent commuting.
    Keywords: commuter satisfaction, lockdown, covid-19, travel time, perception
    JEL: R41 R14
    Date: 2021
  59. By: Le, Kien
    Abstract: In the midst of the COVID-19 Pandemic, universities throughout the world are embracing online learning, often depending on synchronous and asynchronous digital communications. In this paper, we compare the impacts of live online (synchronous) and pre-recorded (asynchronous) lectures on student achievement using a randomized experiment. We discovered that the pre-recorded lectures reduce lower ability students' academic achievement but have no effect on higher ability students' academic achievement. In particular, being taught via the pre-recorded lectures, as opposed to the live online lectures, decreases the likelihood of answering exam questions correctly by 1.6 percentage points for students in the bottom 50th percentile of the ability distribution (measured by GPA at the beginning of the semester). Furthermore, being taught via the pre-recorded lectures in the starting weeks of the semester tend to be more harmful to students’ academic achievement, compared to the later ones. These findings have important implications for the effective design of education policies.
    Keywords: Online education; Academic achievement; Pre-recorded lectures; Live online lectures
    JEL: I2 I21 I23
    Date: 2022
  60. By: Miotto, M (CERGE-EI and CAGE); Pascali, L (Pompeu Fabra Univerity, Barcelona GSE, CAGE and CEPR)
    Abstract: In the 19th century, the process of European expansion led to unprecedented changes in the urban landscape outside of Europe, with the urban population moving towards the coast and tripling in size. We argue that the majority of these changes can be explained by a single innovation, the chronometer, which allowed European explorers and merchants to measure longitude at sea. We use high-resolution global data on climate, ship routes, and demography from 1750 to 1900 to investigate empirically (i) the role of the adoption of the marine chronometer in re-routing trans-oceanic navigation, and (ii) the impact of these changes on the distribution of cities and population across the globe. Our identification relies on the differential impact of the chronometer across trans-oceanic sailing routes.
    Keywords: Longitude, Chronometer, Gravity, Globalization, Trade, Development JEL Classification: F1, F15, F43, R12, R4
    Date: 2022
  61. By: Congressional Budget Office
    Abstract: This paper presents a risk-neutral approach used by the Congressional Budget Office to inform its estimates of the fair-value cost of mortgage obligations. The fair-value cost is the amount that a private entity would charge in a competitive market for taking the risks associated with a government activity. CBO’s approach adjusts the probability distribution of macroeconomic variables to obtain a risk-neutral distribution of default, recovery, and prepayment rates. The macroeconomic variables are calibrated by determining the adjustment that leads the estimates of the fair-
    JEL: G21 G28 H81
    Date: 2022–04–19
  62. By: Bakari, Sayef; El Weriemmi, Malek
    Abstract: A country's economic growth determines its degree of national economic integration and into global value chains. This study aims at examining the effect of urbanization and ruralization for the Tunisian case using annual data expanded from 1965 to 2019. The results of the estimation of an autoregressive distributed lag model and an error correction model show that urbanization has a negative effect on Tunisian economic growth. However, ruralization boosts it. Thus, Tunisia would not be at the stage of urban saturation. Urbanization without industrialization would therefore have reached its limits. Accordingly, Tunisia was built without development and therefore no longer appears as a privileged place but sometimes even excluded. Sometimes the only response to the urban crisis is “the urban exodus”.
    Keywords: Tunisian economic growth, Urbanization, Ruralization, ARDL, ECM.
    JEL: O44 O47 O55 R0 R1
    Date: 2022
  63. By: Wallace, Matthew; Wilson, Ben
    Abstract: The migrant mortality advantage has been observed extensively, but its authenticity is debated. In particular, concerns persist that the advantage is an artefact of the data, generated by the problems of recording mobility among foreign-born populations. Here, we build on the intersection of two recent developments: the first showing substantial age variation in the advantage-a deep U-shaped advantage at peak migration ages-and the second showing high levels of population over-coverage, the principal source of data artefact, at the same ages. We use event history analysis of Sweden's population registers (2010-15) to test whether this over-coverage can explain age variation in the migrant mortality advantage. We document its U-shape in Sweden and, crucially, demonstrate that large mortality differentials persist after adjusting for estimated over-coverage. Our findings contribute to ongoing debate by demonstrating that the migrant mortality advantage is real and by ruling out one of its primary mechanisms.
    Keywords: censoring bias; data artefact/artifact; emigration; event history analysis; health; international migration; mortality; over-coverage; population registers; Sweden; 2019-00603]; 2016-07105; 2016–07115; 340- 2013-5164]
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2022–03–01
  64. By: Kozhaya, Mireille; Martinez Flores, Fernanda
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of a unique child labor ban regulation on employment and school enrollment. The ban implemented in Mexico in 2015, increased the minimum working age from 14 to 15, introduced restrictions to employ underage individuals, and imposed penalties for the violation of the law. Our identification strategy relies on a DiD approach that exploits the date of birth as a natural cutoff to assign individuals into treatment and control groups. The ban led to a decrease in the probability to work by 1.2 percentage points and an increase in the probability of being enrolled in school by 2.2 percentage points for the treatment group. These results are driven by a reduction in employment in paid activities, and in the secondary and tertiary sectors. The effects are persistent several years after the ban.
    Keywords: Child labor,ban,minimum working age,schooling
    JEL: I38 J22 J23 J82 O12
    Date: 2022
  65. By: Crippa, Andrea; d'Agostino, Giorgio; Dunne, Paul; Pieroni, Luca
    Abstract: Much of the literature on the determinants of migration considers push and pull and while conflict is considered a push factor it has received surprisingly little empirical scrutiny. When it has the focus is on the most visible result, refugee flows. While political oppression, economic adversities and environmental degradation are important determinants of migration, conflict and wars account for the bulk of low income country refugees and migrants. This paper considers the role that conflict plays in migration, beyond refugee flows, across a range of countries for which data is available. It estimates the impact of conflict on migration allowing for other important factors and different measures of conflict. A large effect of conflict on net migration is found for low income countries.
    Keywords: Migration, internal conflict, income, panel data
    JEL: C33 D74 F22 O5
    Date: 2022

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