nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2022‒04‒04
fifty-six papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Labor Market Impacts of Exposure to Affordable Housing Supply: Evidence from the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit Program By Deepak Saraswat
  2. Discretization of urban areas using POI-based tesselation By Hagen, Tobias; Hamann, Jonas; Saki, Siavash
  3. Cooling the Mortgage Loan Market: The Effect of Recommended Borrower-Based Limits on New Mortgage Lending By Martin Hodula; Milan Szabo; Lukas Pfeifer; Martin Melecky
  4. When Do Informational Interventions Work? Experimental Evidence from New York City High School Choice By Sarah Cohodes; Sean P. Corcoran; Jennifer Jennings; Carolyn Sattin-Bajaj
  5. Residential-based discrimination in the labor market By Štěpán Mikula; Tommaso Reggiani
  6. Expected Transport Accessibility Improvement and House Prices: Evidence from the Construction of the World’s Longest Undersea Road Tunnel By Štěpán Mikula; Peter Molnár
  7. No country for young kids? The effects of school starting age throughout childhood and beyond By Goncalo Lima; Luis Catela Nunes; Ana Balcao Reis; Maria do Carmo Seabra
  8. School Choice By Abdulkadiroglu, Atila; Andersson, Tommy
  9. Do Dock-based and Dockless Bikesharing Systems Provide Equitable Access for Disadvantaged Communities? By Qian, Xiaodong; Jaller, Miguel
  10. Active Travel Oriented Development: Assessing the suitability of sites for new homes By Talbot, Joseph; Lucas-Smith, Martin; Speakman, Andrew; Streb, Megan; Nuttall, Simon; Carlino, Dustin; Johansson, Patrick; Sheehan, Nathanael; Groot, Nikée; Lovelace, Robin
  11. Fiscal externalities in multilevel tax structures: Evidence from concurrent income taxation By Federico Revelli; Tsung-Sheng Tsai; Roberto Zotti
  12. Circular economy in Germany: A methodology to assess the circular economy performance of NUTS3 regions By Kruse, Mirko; Wedemeier, Jan
  13. Gender gaps in different assessment systems: The role of teacher gender By Catarina Angelo; Ana Balcao Reis
  14. The long-term effects of student absence: Evidence from Sweden By Cattan, Sarah; Kamhöfer, Daniel A.; Karlsson, Martin; Nilsson, Therese
  15. Consumer Bankruptcy, Mortgage Default and Labor Supply By Wenli Li; Costas Meghir; Florian Oswald
  16. Evaluating the Sustainability Impacts of Intelligent Carpooling Systems for SOV Commuters in the Atlanta Region By Liu, Diyi; Guin, Angshuman
  17. Residential segregation matters to racial income gaps: Evidence from South Africa By Florent Dubois; Christophe Muller
  18. The Impact of Exposure to Refugees on Prosocial Behavior By Hager, Anselm; Valasek, Justin
  19. Local authorities staff. The Southern regions compared with the North-Centre of Italy By Luciana Aimone Gigio; Massimiliano Bolis; Paolo Chiades; Antonio Lo Nardo; Massimiliano Paolicelli
  20. Nonparametric prediction with spatial data By Abhimanyu Gupta; Javier Hidalgo
  21. Climate Crisis/Housing Crisis: How can social landlords reconcile safety and energy saving? By Ellie Benton; LSE Housing and Communities; Anne Power
  22. Place-Based Consequences of Person-Based Transfer: Evidence from Recessions By Brad Hershbein; Bryan Stuart
  23. An empirical analysis of German casino locations By Haucap, Justus; Nedic, Radivoje; Şimşek, Talha
  24. Forward to the Past: Short-Term Effects of the Rent Freeze in Berlin By Anja M. Hahn; Konstantin A. Kholodilin; Sofie R. Waltl; Marco Fongoni
  25. The potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on learning By Luis Ángel Monroy-Gómez-Franco; Roberto Vélez Grajales; Luis Felipe López-Calva
  26. The Impact of Forced Migration on In-Group and Out-Group Social Capital By Hager, Anselm; Valasek, Justin
  27. Foreign graduates in Sweden. The role of high tech sectors, STEM disciplines and cultural distance. By Fassio, Claudio; Igna, Ioana
  28. The Evolution of U.S. Retail Concentration By Dominic A. Smith; Sergio Ocampo
  29. Place-based policies and agglomeration economies: Firm-level evidence from special economic zones in India By Görg, Holger; Mulyukova, Alina
  30. The Geography of Intergenerational Mobility in Latin America and the Caribbean By Ercio Muñoz
  31. Firm Heterogeneity and the Impact of Immigration: Evidence from German Establishments By Agostina Brinatti; Nicolas Morales
  32. Covid-19 impact on Bike-sharing systems: An analysis for Toulouse, Lyon, and Montreal By Ivaldi, Marc; Nunez, Walter
  33. Federal Financial Support for Public Transportation By Congressional Budget Office
  34. Does Over-education Raise Productivity and Wages Equally ?The Moderating Role of Workers’ Origin and Immigrants’ Background By Valentine Jacobs; François Rycx; Mélanie Volral
  35. Immigration Quotas and Anti-Immigration Attitudes: An Evaluation of Swiss Migration Policy By Qingyang Lin
  36. Long-range connections and mixed diffusion in fractional networks By Rui Vilela Mendes; Tanya Araújo
  37. Using stochastic hierarchical aggregation constraints to nowcast regional economic aggregates By Gary Koop; Stuart McIntyre; James Mitchell; Aubrey Poon
  38. Predicting refugee flows from Ukraine with an approach to Big (Crisis) Data: a new opportunity for refugee and humanitarian studies By Jurić, Tado
  39. Association of COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality Rates With School Reopening in Brazil During the COVID-19 Pandemic By Lichand, Guilherme; Belchior, Carlos Alberto; Leal Neto, Onicio Batista; Cossi, João
  40. Understanding how COVID-19 has Changed Teachers’ Chances of Remaining in the Classroom By Zamarro, Gema; Camp, Andrew; Fuchsman, Dillon; McGee, Josh B.
  41. Pilot study on the learning success of students in service-learning compared to other teaching and learning formats By Schlegler, Maren; Koch, Susanne
  42. Automated Vehicle Technology Has the Potential to Smooth Traffic Flow and Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions By Almatrudi, Sulaiman; Parvate, Kanaad; Rothchild, Daniel; Vijay, Upadhi; Jang, Kathy; Bayen, Alexandre
  43. Who benefits from firm success? Heterogeneous rent-sharing in New Zealand By Corey Allan; David C. Maré
  44. Solving the longitude puzzle: A story of cocks, ships and cities By Martina Miotto; Luigi Pascali
  45. Nightless City: Impacts of Policymakers’ Questions on Overtime Work of Government Officials By Natsuki Arai; Masashige Hamano; Munechika Katayama; Yuki Murakami; Katsunori Yamada
  46. Experimental research in public administration: a study of gender representation in the police By Federica Alberti; Karen Johnston; Foteini Kravari
  47. Import Shock and Local Labour Market Outcomes: A Sino-Indian Case Study By Feiyang Shi
  48. Equality Denied: Tech and African Americans By William Lazonick; Philip Moss; Joshua Weitz
  49. The Effect of a Universal Preschool Programme on Long-Term Health Outcomes: Evidence from Spain By Bosque-Mercader, L.;
  50. Transportation Infrastructure and Trade By Zheng, Han; Hongtao, Li
  51. Automated Vehicles Industry Survey of Transportation Infrastructure Needs By Wang, Pei; McKeever, Benjamin; Chan, Ching-Yao
  52. Educational and Skills Mismatches: Unravelling Their Effects on Wages Across Europe By Loredana Cultrera; Benoit Mahy; François Rycx; Guillaume Vermeylen
  53. In Search of Lost Trams: Comparing 1925 and 2020 Transit Isochrones in Sydney. By Bahman Lahoorpoor; David Levinson
  54. Structural change and firm dynamics in the south of Italy By Francesco Bripi; Raffaello Bronzini; Elena Gentili; Andrea Linarello; Elisa Scarinzi
  55. Occupational Regulation, Institutions, and Migrants' Labor Market Outcomes By Maria Koumenta; Mario Pagliero; Davud Rostam-Afschar
  56. The Living Wage in the Municipalities of Ensenada and San Quintín, Baja California, México By Marcelo Delajara; Rocío Espinosa Montiel; Claudia E. Fonseca; Martha Anker; Richard Anker

  1. By: Deepak Saraswat (University of Connecticut)
    Abstract: Affordable housing programs as place-based programs in the United States have an impact on the neighborhoods, but little is known about the impact of affordable housing construction on individuals living in the neighborhoods hosting these projects. This paper investigates the effects of affordable housing construction under the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program on individuals’ labor market outcomes and welfare dependence. We exploit the timing of changes in the LIHTC program leading to spatial changes in the affordable housing supply to compare labor market outcomes of individuals exposed to varying levels of housing construction. We overcome the empirical challenges posed by the selective sorting of individuals into neighborhoods by matching the timing of the change in housing supply to an individuals’ neighborhood of residence. We find an average improvement in the labor market outcomes of individuals as a result of higher exposure to the supply of affordable housing in their neighborhood. In addition, we document significant heterogeneities by race and ethnicity and find evidence that these heterogeneities are likely explained by the program-induced and migration-induced changes in neighborhood quality.
    Keywords: Low-income housing, Gentrification, Tax credits, Labor supply, Neighborhood changes
    JEL: I38 J15 J22 R23 R31 R38
    Date: 2022–03
  2. By: Hagen, Tobias; Hamann, Jonas; Saki, Siavash
    Abstract: Urban area tessellation is a crucial aspect in many spatial analyses. While regular tessellation methods, like square-grid or hexagon-grid, are suitable for addressing pure geometry problems, they cannot take the unique characteristics of different subareas into account. Irregular tessellation methods allow the border between the subareas to be defined more realistically based on the urban features like road network or POI data. This paper studies and compares five different tessellation methods: Squares, hexagons, adaptive squares, Voronoi diagrams, and city blocks. We explain how (open-source) POI data can be integrated into the tessellation process to build what we call 'Local Geographic Units' (POI-based tiles). These units are flexible and adaptable to the structure of the studied area and underlying data and could improve the performance of further analyses. The results of the various tessellation methods are demonstrated for the city of Frankfurt am Main in Germany. A simple clustering of Local Geographic Units for the studied city indicates that city blocks perform better than the other methods in the city segmentation in terms of reflecting the structure of this city.
    Keywords: urban analysis,tessellation,spatial tessellation,urban studies
    Date: 2022
  3. By: Martin Hodula; Milan Szabo; Lukas Pfeifer; Martin Melecky
    Abstract: This paper studies the effects of regulatory recommendations concerning maximum (i) loan-to-value (LTV), (ii) debt-to-income (DTI) and (iii) debt service-to-income ratios (DSTI) on new loans secured by residential property. It uses loan-level regulatory survey data on about 82,000 newly granted residential mortgage loans in the Czech Republic from 2016 to 2019 to estimate the average effects of the Czech National Bank's regulatory recommendations and their heterogeneous effects depending on borrower, loan, bank and regional characteristics. The studied response variables include the mortgage loan size and lending rate and the value of the property with which loans are secured. The machine learning method of causal forests is employed to estimate the effects of interest and to identify any heterogeneity and its likely drivers. We highlight two important facts: (i) value-based (LTV) and income-based (DTI and DSTI) limits have different impacts on the mortgage market and (ii) borrower, loan, bank and regional characteristics play an important role in the transmission of the recommended limits.
    Keywords: Borrower-based measures, causal forests, Czech Republic, macroprudential recommendations, residential mortgage loans
    JEL: E44 G21 G28 G51 R31
    Date: 2022–03
  4. By: Sarah Cohodes; Sean P. Corcoran; Jennifer Jennings; Carolyn Sattin-Bajaj
    Abstract: This paper reports the results of a large, school-level randomized controlled trial evaluating a set of three informational interventions for young people choosing high schools in 473 middle schools, serving over 115,000 8th graders. The interventions differed in their level of customization to the student and their mode of delivery (paper or online); all treated schools received identical materials to scaffold the decision-making process. Every intervention reduced likelihood of application to and enrollment in schools with graduation rates below the city median (75 percent). An important channel is their effect on reducing nonoptimal first choice application strategies. Providing a simplified, middle-school specific list of relatively high graduation rate schools had the largest impacts, causing students to enroll in high schools with 1.5-percentage point higher graduation rates. Providing the same information online, however, did not alter students’ choices or enrollment. This appears to be due to low utilization. Online interventions with individual customization, including a recommendation tool and search engine, induced students to enroll in high schools with 1-percentage point higher graduation rates, but with more variance in impact. Together, these results show that successful informational interventions must generate engagement with the material, and this is possible through multiple channels.
    Keywords: Informational interventions; Inequality; Decision-making; School choice
    JEL: I24 D83 I21
    Date: 2022–02–01
  5. By: Štěpán Mikula (Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic); Tommaso Reggiani (Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK; Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic; IZA, Bonn, Germany)
    Abstract: Through a correspondence study, this paper investigates whether employers discriminate job applicants based on their living conditions. Exploiting the natural setting provided by a Rapid Re-housing Program, we sent 1,347 job applications for low-qualified front-desk jobs in Brno, Czech Republic. The resumes exogenously differed in only one main aspect represented by the address of the applicants, signaling both the quality of the neighborhood and the quality of the housing conditions in which they were living. We found that while the higher quality of the district has a strong effect in increasing the hiring chances (+20\%) the actual improvement of the living conditions standards, per se, does not generate any significant positive effect.
    Keywords: correspondence study, labor discrimination, housing conditions, Rapid Re-housing
    JEL: C93 J08 J71
    Date: 2022–03
  6. By: Štěpán Mikula (Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic); Peter Molnár (University of Stavanger, Stavanger, Norway, Prague University of Economics and Business, Prague, Czech Republic, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Torun, Torun, Poland)
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of expected transport accessibility improvement on house prices. We identify the effect exploiting a quasi-natural experiment created by the approval and construction of the Ryfast tunnel system in Rogaland, Norway, which shortened the travelling time to the affected municipality from 62 to 24 minutes. Estimates of a repeated sales model in a difference-in-differences framework show that the expectation of improvement in transport accessibility connected with the construction of the tunnel system led to an increase in house prices by 10.1–12.8\% on average. That effect grew as the opening of the tunnel drew closer and was driven by less valuable houses.
    Keywords: transport accessibility; expectations; house prices; Ryfast tunnel system; construction; Norway
    JEL: R3 R4
    Date: 2022–03
  7. By: Goncalo Lima; Luis Catela Nunes; Ana Balcao Reis; Maria do Carmo Seabra
    Abstract: Being the youngest in a cohort entails many penalties. Using administrative data of every public-school student in Portugal, we show that although performance gains from being 1-year older fade quickly from primary education to high school, age-related penalties persist through a combination of grade retention, educational tracking and testing policies. Those that start school younger are more likely to repeat grades and ultimately drop out from school. Older entrants are more likely to enroll in scientific curricula in high school, are more successful at accessing public higher education and enroll in more selective undergraduate courses.
    Keywords: School starting age, education, student achievement
    JEL: H75 I21 J13
    Date: 2022
  8. By: Abdulkadiroglu, Atila (Department of Economics, Duke University); Andersson, Tommy (Department of Economics, Lund University)
    Abstract: School districts in the US and around the world are increasingly moving away from traditional neighborhood school assignment, in which pupils attend closest schools to their homes. Instead, they allow families to choose from schools within district boundaries. This creates a market with parental demand over publicly-supplied school seats. More frequently than ever, this market for school seats is cleared via market design solutions grounded in recent advances in matching and mechanism design theory. The literature on school choice is reviewed with emphasis placed on the trade-offs among policy objectives and best practices in the design of admissions processes. It is concluded with a brief discussion about how data generated by assignment algorithms can be used to answer contemporary empirical questions about school effectiveness and policy interventions.
    Keywords: school choice; market design; policy evaluation; survey article
    JEL: C78 D80 H75 I21 I28
    Date: 2022–02–28
  9. By: Qian, Xiaodong; Jaller, Miguel
    Abstract: Bikeshare is an increasingly prevalent transportation option that offers users access to a bicycle without owning it. Both dockbased (requiring users to return bicycles to a fixed station) and dockless (free-floating) services have grown significantly over the past decade. Previous research has found that a well-designed bikeshare system has great potential to improve accessibility for disadvantaged communities. However, systems currently underserve these communities. Moreover, there is a lack of research about the performance and impacts of dock-based versus dockless bikeshare systems in terms of providing equitable access to disadvantaged communities. Researchers at the University of California, Davis analyzed the difference in service levels among dock-based and dockless systems in the cities of San Francisco and Los Angeles. The researchers analyzed the spatial distribution of service areas, availability of bikes and bike idle times, trip statistics, rebalancing, and other metrics to understand how well or poorly these systems serve designated “communities of concern” (CoCs). Finally, using crowdsourced suggestions from online platforms, the researchers conducted a comparative assessment of actual station locations with the users’ suggestions of potential station locations. These analyses can help planning agencies and local governments to better understand and manage these systems. This policy brief summarizes the findings from that research and provides policy implications. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Bicycles, Equity (Justice), Spatial analysis, Transportation disadvantaged persons, Vehicle sharing
    Date: 2022–03–01
  10. By: Talbot, Joseph; Lucas-Smith, Martin; Speakman, Andrew; Streb, Megan; Nuttall, Simon; Carlino, Dustin; Johansson, Patrick; Sheehan, Nathanael; Groot, Nikée; Lovelace, Robin
    Abstract: The location of new housing developments, and the provision of safe space for walking and cycling to key destinations around them, have major and long lasting impacts on travel behaviour, health, and environmental outcomes. Transit Oriented Development (TOD) is a well-recognised concept in urban planning, but systemic evidence is often lacking on the likely ‘active travel performance’ of new developments, making it hard for the planning process to support sustainable transport objectives. This paper articulates the concept of ‘Active Travel Oriented Development’ (ATOD) and describes methods for operationalising it. We demonstrate the use of a set of simple metrics to assess the active travel performance of new and proposed development sites. ATOD has the benefits of building on the established concept of TOD and being easy to assess. We conclude that ATOD, and tools for measuring it, are needed to ensure that transport and development policies work in harmony.
    Date: 2021–09–28
  11. By: Federico Revelli (Department of Economics and Statistics "S. Cognetti de Martiis," University of Torino, Campus Luigi Einaudi); Tsung-Sheng Tsai (Department of Economics, National Taiwan University); Roberto Zotti (Department of Economics and Statistics "S. Cognetti de Martiis," University of Torino, Campus Luigi Einaudi)
    Abstract: This paper exploits the multi-tiered structure of personal income taxation in Italy to investigate within-tier (horizontal) and between-tiers (vertical and diagonal) fiscal externalities. Estimation of an unrestricted income tax reaction function on municipalities located at internal regional borders using off-border Wald-type grouping variables as well as the staggered schedule of mayoral elections as instruments for endogenous spatial lags reveals strong positive spatial dependence in municipal tax rates. On the other hand, there is no evidence of a response of municipal tax rates to regional tax policies, suggesting that border discontinuity estimators that rely on consolidated spatial specifications (lower-plus-upper-tier tax rates) impose restrictions on the parameters of the reaction function that are unwarranted in these circumstances.
    Keywords: fiscal externalities; income taxation; grouping instrumental variable; border discontinuity estimator
    Date: 2022–01
  12. By: Kruse, Mirko; Wedemeier, Jan
    Abstract: There is currently a massive methodological gap in the spatial analysis of the Circular Economy (CE) performance in general and in Germany particularly. The authors present a methodology to assess this performance in German regions. The methodology consists of 26 indicators in seven dimensions, namely Policy, Innovation, Circular Employment, Consumption and Production, Waste Management, Socio-economic Development, Municipal Sustainability. Data was obtained from different sources and focuses on the base year 2018. The analysis reveals that Germany does not show a clear core-periphery pattern when it comes to regional CE performance. Instead, the pattern is more differentiated with both urban and rural regions of different sizes being able to rank high in CE performance.
    Keywords: Circular Economy,Germany,Regional Assessment,Sustainability,NUTS3
    JEL: O18 P48 R1 R11
    Date: 2022
  13. By: Catarina Angelo; Ana Balcao Reis
    Abstract: Previous research has identified a gender gap in the difference between teacher grading and scores on national exams at the end of secondary school. We go a step further and look at how teacher characteristics may influence this gender gap. We find that exams are relatively more favorable for boys, regardless of the teacher gender or the gender matching. Results suggest that having a male teacher tends to increase the assessment gap for all students through a greater decrease from teacher grades to exam scores, the impact being less for boys.
    Keywords: Student achievement, gender gap, grading practices, teacher gender
    JEL: I21 I24 J16
    Date: 2022
  14. By: Cattan, Sarah; Kamhöfer, Daniel A.; Karlsson, Martin; Nilsson, Therese
    Abstract: Despite the relatively uncontested importance of promoting school attendance in the policy arena, little evidence exists on the causal effect of school absence on long-run socio-economic outcomes. We address this question by combining historical and administrative records for cohorts of Swedish individuals born in the 1930s. We find that primary school absence significantly reduces contemporaneous academic performance, final educational attainment and labor income throughout the life-cycle. The findings are consistent with a dynamic model of human capital formation, whereby absence causes small immediate learning losses, which cumulate to larger human capital losses over time and lead to worse labor market performance.
    Keywords: school absence,educational attainment,long-term effects,register data
    JEL: C23 I14 I21 I26
    Date: 2022
  15. By: Wenli Li (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Costas Meghir (Cowles Foundation, Yale University, NBER, IZA, CEPR and IFS); Florian Oswald (SciencesPo, Paris)
    Abstract: We specify and estimate a lifecycle model of consumption, housing demand and labor supply in an environment where individuals may file for bankruptcy or default on their mortgage. Uncertainty in the model is driven by house price shocks, education specific productivity shocks, and catastrophic consumption events, while bankruptcy is governed by the basic institutional framework in the US as implied by Chapter 7 and Chapter 13. The model is estimated using micro data on credit reports and mortgages combined with data from the American Community Survey. We use the model to understand the relative importance of the two chapters (7 and 13) for each of our two education groups that differ in both preferences and wage profiles. We also provide an evaluation of the BAPCPA reform. Our paper demonstrates importance of distributional effects of Bankruptcy policy.
    Keywords: Lifecycle, Bankruptcy, Housing, Mortgage Default, Labor Supply, Consumption, Education, Insurance, Moral hazard
    JEL: G33 K35 J22 J31 D14 D18 D52 D53 E21
    Date: 2022–03
  16. By: Liu, Diyi; Guin, Angshuman
    Abstract: Community-based carpooling has the potential to alleviate traffic congestion and reduce the transportation carbon footprint. Once technology, communication, demographic, and economic barriers are overcome, community-based carpooling can be fully exploited. One of the major barriers to implementation is the difficulty of optimizing carpool formation in large systems. This study utilizes two different methods to solve the carpooling optimization problem: 1) bipartite algorithm and 2) integer linear programming. The bipartite method determines the maximum number of carpooling pairs given acceptable reroute costs and travel delays. The linear programming method defines the most optimal performance that minimizes the most vehicular travel mileage. These two methods are carefully compared to evaluate the carpooling potentials among single-occupancy vehicles based on the output of activity-based model’s (ARC ABM) home-to-work single-occupancy vehicle (SOV) trips that can be paired together towards designated regional employment centers. The experiment showed that under strict assumptions, an upper bound of around 13.6% of such trips could carpool together. The results are promising in terms of higher-than-anticipated carpool match rates and the predicted decrease in total vehicle mileage. Moreover, the framework is flexible enough with the potential to act as a simulation testbed, to optimize vehicular operations, and to match potential carpool partners in real-time. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Carpooling, Demographics, Sustainability, Traffic, Modeling
    Date: 2022–03–01
  17. By: Florent Dubois (University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom and EconomiX, University Paris Nanterre, 92000 Nanterre, France); Christophe Muller (Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France.)
    Abstract: We contend that residential segregation should be an essential component of the analyses of socio-ethnic income gaps. Focusing on the contemporary White/African gap in South Africa, we complete Mincer wage equations with an Isolation index that reflects the level of segregation in the local area where individuals dwell. We decompose the income gap distribution into detailed composition and structure components. Segregation is found to be the main contributor of the structure effect, ahead of education and experience, and to make a sizable contribution to the composition effect. Moreover, segregation is found to be harmful at the bottom of the African income distribution, notably in relation to local informal job-search networks, while it is beneficial at the top of the White income distribution. Specific subpopulations are identified that suffer and benefit most from segregation, including for the former, little educated workers in agriculture and mining, often female, confined in their personal networks. Finally, minimum wage policies are found likely to attenuate most segregation’s noxious mechanisms, while a variety of policy lessons are drawn from the decomposition analysis by distinguishing not only compositional from structural effects, but also distinct group-specific social positions.
    Keywords: residential segregation, post-apartheid South Africa, distribution analysis, generalized decompositions
    JEL: J15 D31 R23
    Date: 2022–03
  18. By: Hager, Anselm (Humbodt-Universität); Valasek, Justin (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)
    Abstract: Does exposure to refugees affect natives' prosocial behavior? If so, do changes in prosocial behavior also extend to existing migrants? We administer a survey of a representative sample of Lebanese respondents and measure their prosocial behavior toward Syrian refugees, Palestinian migrants, and other Lebanese. Combining our survey data and data on refugee settlements, we find that individual proximity to refugees is positively correlated with trust towards refugees, and that there is a positive spillover toward Palestinian migrants. Taken together, the evidence highlights how inter-group contact can help mitigate the negative effects of mass migration.
    Keywords: Migrants; prosocial behavior
    JEL: J01
    Date: 2022–03–15
  19. By: Luciana Aimone Gigio (Bank of Italy); Massimiliano Bolis (Bank of Italy); Paolo Chiades (Bank of Italy); Antonio Lo Nardo (Bank of Italy); Massimiliano Paolicelli (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: The paper analyzes how the characteristics of the employees of the local governments in the Southern regions of Italy have changed compared to those of the North-Centre over the last decade. The implementation of rigorous legislation to contain personnel costs and limit turnover, which caused a sharp reduction in local governments’ staff between 2008 (the year of maximum expansion) and 2019, was more intense in the Southern regions. The analysis shows a convergence between the two macro areas in terms of workforce size and costs; however there are still strong regional differences in employees’ seniority, education, professional qualifications and contractual schemes. These differences are mostly due to a lower turnover and an intensive conversion of precarious work to permanent employment in the South, thus delaying the hiring of personnel with better qualifications and skills. The skill deficit of the employees of Southern local authorities render them less well equipped than those in the rest of the country to tackle the challenges posed by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan.
    Keywords: personnel, local authorities, Southern Italy, geographic divides
    JEL: J45 H70
    Date: 2022–03
  20. By: Abhimanyu Gupta; Javier Hidalgo
    Abstract: We describe a (nonparametric) prediction algorithm for spatial data, based on a canonical factorization of the spectral density function. We provide theoretical results showing that the predictor has desirable asymptotic properties. Finite sample performance is assessed in a Monte Carlo study that also compares our algorithm to a rival nonparametric method based on the infinite AR representation of the dynamics of the data. Finally, we apply our methodology to predict house prices in Los Angeles.
    Keywords: Lattice data, unilateral models, canonical factorization, spectral density, nonparametric prediction
    Date: 2022–01
  21. By: Ellie Benton; LSE Housing and Communities; Anne Power
    Keywords: energy saving. retrofit, social housing, fire safety, case studies, grenfell,
    Date: 2022–03
  22. By: Brad Hershbein; Bryan Stuart
    Abstract: This paper studies how government transfers respond to changes in local economic activity that emerge during recessions. Local labor markets that experience greater employment losses during recessions face persistent relative decreases in per capita earnings. However, these areas also experience persistent increases in per capita transfers, which offset 16 percent of the earnings loss on average. The increase in transfers is driven by unemployment insurance in the short run, and medical, retirement, and disability transfers in the long run. Our results show that nominally place-neutral transfer programs redistribute considerable sums of money to places with depressed economic conditions.
    Keywords: recessions; safety net; government transfers
    JEL: E32 H50 R12 R28
    Date: 2022–03–22
  23. By: Haucap, Justus; Nedic, Radivoje; Şimşek, Talha
    Abstract: In this paper we provide an empirical analysis of German casino locations. Due to the "mercantilistic background" of casinos, we assume that casinos are more likely to be found at borders and tourist areas. Although the location decision has been made in the past, we use cross-sectional data at county level to analyze whether the current locations of casinos are consistent with current policy objectives. We discuss whether fiscal incentives and/or regulatory objectives to prevent harmful gambling are relevant for the locations of German casinos. For our empirical analysis we use location and tourism indicators which are both significant factors for the location of German casinos. We find that the likelihood of a casino location increases if a county is located on a state border. We conjecture this is due to the following reasons: On the one hand there is increased out-of state demand on borders and on the other hand negative externalities of a casino can be shared with neighbor states. This is inconsistent, however, with the objectives of the State Treaty, which is to provide legal gambling opportunities for the population within the state. For better implementation of the objectives, a more balanced distribution of casinos throughout the urbanized regions in Germany is recommended.
    Keywords: casinos locations,negative externalities,gambling regulation,stateborder effect,logit model,urbanization
    JEL: D72 L83 L88 H7
    Date: 2022
  24. By: Anja M. Hahn; Konstantin A. Kholodilin; Sofie R. Waltl; Marco Fongoni
    Abstract: In 2020, Berlin introduced a rigorous rent-control policy responding to soaring rents by setting a cap on rental prices: the Mietendeckel (rent freeze). The policy was revoked one year later by the German Constitutional Court. Although successful in reducing rents during its duration, the consequences for Berlin’s rental market and adjacent municipalities are not clear. In this paper we evaluate the short-term causal effect of the rent freeze on the supply-side of the market, both in terms of prices and quantities. We develop a theoretical framework capturing the key features of the rent freeze, and test its predictions using a rich pool of detailed rent adverts. In addition, we estimate hedonic-style Difference-in-Differences and Spatial Regression Discontinuity models comparing price trajectories of dwellings inside and outside the policy’s scope. Advertised rents drop significantly upon the policy’s enactment. A substantial rent gap across the administrative border emerges, with rapidly growing rents for Berlin’s (unregulated) adjacent municipalities. Moreover, we document a significant drop in the number of advertised properties for rent, a share of which appears to be permanently lost for the rental sector.
    Keywords: First-Generation Rent Control; Rent Freeze; Urban Policy; Local Political Economy; Supply Disruptions; Legal Uncertainty; Berlin
    JEL: C14 C43 O18 D04
    Date: 2022
  25. By: Luis Ángel Monroy-Gómez-Franco; Roberto Vélez Grajales; Luis Felipe López-Calva (Centro de Estudios Espinosa Yglesias)
    Abstract: This paper use a new database for Mexico to model the possible long-run effects of the pandemic on learning. First, based on the framework of Neidhöfer et al. (2021), the authors estimate the loss of schooling due to the transition from in-person to remote learning using data from the ESRU Survey on Social Mobility in Mexico 2017 (ESRU-EMOVI-2017), census data and national statistics of COVID-19 incidence. Secondly, the authors estimate the potential long-run consequences of this shock through a calibrated learning profile for five Mexican regions following Kaffenberger and Pritchett (2021). Assuming the distance learning policy adopted by the Mexican government is entirely effective, the results indicate that a learning loss equivalent to the learning during a third of a school year in the short run translates into a learning loss equivalent to an entire school year further up the educational career of students. On the other hand, if the policy was ineffective, the short-run loss increases to an entire school year and becomes a loss of two years of learning in the long run.
    Date: 2021
  26. By: Hager, Anselm (Humbodt-Universität); Valasek, Justin (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)
    Abstract: In this paper, we study how forced migration impacts the in-group and out-group social capital of Syrian refugees and the host population in Northern Lebanon by administering a novel survey experiment in which we manipulate the salience of the migration experience (for refugees) and the refugee crisis (for the host population). Additionally, we study the social spillovers to Palestinians, an established refugee population in Lebanon. We find that the impact of forced migration is largely restricted to the Syrian refugee-Lebanese host population channel, and that it increases the relative disparity between in-group and out-group social capital. This may cause refugees to favor in-group interactions and therefore forgo more economically advantageous interactions with out-group members.
    Keywords: Refugees; Migration; Social Capital; Experiment; Ethnicity
    JEL: C90 D91 J15
    Date: 2022–03–15
  27. By: Fassio, Claudio (CIRCLE, Lund University); Igna, Ioana (CIRCLE, Lund University)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the career paths of foreign students in Sweden, after graduation. Matching individual data on foreign graduates in Sweden with information about their employers, we analyze the sectors in which they start their career after graduation in Sweden, during the period 2000-2014. We propose that foreign graduates are attracted by firms operating in sectors employing a higher level of knowledge codification and in expanding sectors with a higher growth of demand for skilled workers. Our findings indicate that foreign graduates are more likely than Swedish ones to work in high-tech sectors, both in manufacturing and services, and in expanding industries, such as the services with low knowledge intensity. Foreign students from more culturally distant locations are more likely to work in high-tech or in expanding sectors. Finally, STEM foreign graduates are the main driver of the propensity to work in high tech manufacturing sectors, but not in high tech services.
    Keywords: foreign graduates; STEM; cultural distance; high tech; occupations
    JEL: J20 O39
    Date: 2021–03–02
  28. By: Dominic A. Smith; Sergio Ocampo
    Abstract: Increases in national concentration have been a salient feature of industry dynamics in the U.S. and have contributed to concerns about increasing market power. Yet, local trends may be more informative about market power, particularly in the retail sector where consumers have traditionally shopped at nearby stores. We find that local concentration has increased almost in parallel with national concentration using novel Census data on product-level revenue for all U.S. retail stores. The increases in concentration are broad based, affecting most markets, products, and retail industries. We implement a new decomposition of the national Herfindahl Hirschman Index and show that despite similar trends, national and local concentration reflect different changes in the retail sector. The increase in national concentration comes from consumers in different markets increasingly buying from the same firms and does not reflect changes in local market power. We estimate a model of retail competition which links local concentration to markups. The model implies that the increase in local concentration explains one-third of the observed increase in markups.
    Keywords: Retail, Local Markets, Concentration, Herfindahl-Hirschman Index
    JEL: L8
    Date: 2022–03
  29. By: Görg, Holger; Mulyukova, Alina
    Abstract: This paper exploits time and geographic variation in the adoption of Special Economic Zones in India to assess the direct and spillover effects of the program. We combine geocoded firm-level data and geocoded SEZs using a concentric ring approach, thus creating a novel dataset of firms with their assigned SEZ status. To overcome the selection bias we employ inverse probability weighting with time-varying covariates in a difference-in-differences framework. Our analysis yields that conditional on controlling for initial selection, the establishment of SEZs induced no further productivity gains for within SEZ firms, on average. This effect is predominantly driven by relatively less productive firms, whereas more productive firms experienced significant productivity gains. However, SEZs created negative externalities for firms in the vicinity which attenuate with distance. Neighbouring domestic firms, large firms, manufacturing firms and non-importer firms are the main losers of the program. Evidence points at the diversion of inputs from non-SEZ to SEZ-firms as a potential mechanism.
    Keywords: Special Economic Zones,India,TFP growth,firm performance,spillovers,time-varyingtreatment
    JEL: O18 O25 P25 R10 R58 R23 F21 F60
    Date: 2022
  30. By: Ercio Muñoz (Centro de Estudios Espinosa Yglesias)
    Abstract: In this paper, the author estimate intergenerational mobility (IGM) in education using crosssectional data from 91 censuses that span 24 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) over half a century. The author measure upward mobility as the likelihood of obtaining at least a primary education for individuals whose parents did not finish primary school, whereas downward mobility as the likelihood of failing to complete primary education for individuals whose parents completed at least primary school. In addition, the author explore the geography of educational IGM using nearly 400 “provinces” and more than 6,000 “dis-tricts” and document wide cross-country and within-country heterogeneity.
    Date: 2021
  31. By: Agostina Brinatti; Nicolas Morales
    Abstract: We use a detailed establishment-level dataset from Germany to document a new dimension of firm heterogeneity: large firms spend a higher share of their wage bill on immigrants than small firms. We show analytically that ignoring this heterogeneity in the immigrant share leads to biased estimates of the welfare gains from immigration. To do so, we set up and estimate a model where heterogeneous firms choose their immigrant share and then use it to quantify the welfare effects of an increase in the number of immigrants in Germany. Two new adjustment mechanisms arise under firm heterogeneity. First, native workers reallocate across firms, which mitigates the competition effect between immigrants and natives in the labor market. Second, the gains are largely concentrated among the largest and most productive employers, which induces an additional aggregate productivity gain. If we ignore the heterogeneity in the immigrant share across firms, we would underestimate the welfare gains of native workers by 11%.
    Keywords: Heterogeneous Firms; Migration; International Trade
    JEL: F16 F22 J24 J61
    Date: 2021–12
  32. By: Ivaldi, Marc; Nunez, Walter
    Abstract: Based on Bike-sharing system (BSS) data for Toulouse, Lyon, and Montreal, we study the Covid19 impact on relevant variables of BSS use. Our results show significant changes related to longer travel distance, which would be explained by those users who use the BSS at peak hour. Also, after Covid-19 outbreak there is evidence about higher willingness to use the BSS in adverse weather conditions (such as rain and wind), lower substitution with the public transport system in Lyon, and a recovery and even a slight increase of BSS trips for Toulouse and Lyon respectively. In our opinion, these results most likely represent permanent changes in user’ habits, being an excellent opportunity to make specific investments in this system and thus strongly promote the bicycle use and its permanence.
    Keywords: Bike-sharing system;Covid-19 effects; long-term changes.
    JEL: R40 L91
    Date: 2022–03
  33. By: Congressional Budget Office
    Abstract: The federal government has long provided significant financial support for public transportation. Federal spending accounted for about one-sixth of the $79 billion in public spending on transit in 2019. During the coronavirus pandemic, lawmakers allocated nearly $70 billion in onetime supplemental funding. Lawmakers also passed the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which increased the federal government’s annual funding for public transit from $14 billion to $18 billion per year through 2026 and provided funding for new surface transportation programs.
    JEL: H54 R42 R48
    Date: 2022–03–22
  34. By: Valentine Jacobs; François Rycx; Mélanie Volral
    Abstract: We provide first evidence of the impact of over-education, among natives and immigrants, on firm-level productivity and wages. We use Belgian linked panel data and rely on the methodology from Hellerstein et al. (1999) to estimate ORU (over-, required, and under-education) equations aggregated at the firm level. Our results show that the over-education wage premium is higher for natives than for immigrants. However, since the differential in productivity gains associated with over-education between natives and immigrants outweighs the corresponding wage premium differential, we conclude – based on OLS and dynamic GMM-SYS estimates – that over-educated native workers are in fact underpaid to a greater extent than their over-educated immigrant counterparts. This conclusion is refined by sensitivity analyses, when testing the role of immigrants’ background (e.g. region of birth, immigrant generation, age at arrival in the host country, tenure).
    Keywords: Immigrants; Over-Education; Productivity; Wages; Linked Panel Data; Belgium
    JEL: J24 J71
    Date: 2022–02–24
  35. By: Qingyang Lin (IHEID, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva)
    Abstract: Switzerland implemented an immigration quota system to manage the inflow of immigration between 1970 and 2002. This paper adopts a difference-in-difference strategy taking advantage of subnational variations in the implementation of the quota system to evaluate this migration policy. An instrument variable of antiimmigration attitudes is used to address the potential endogeneity issue. The author finds that the immigration quota system slowed down the growth of foreign population in Switzerland, but had no impact on unemployment. Moreover, such immigration restriction lowered the average skill level of the Swiss population which in turn hurt the productivity of the Swiss economy.
    Keywords: Migration; Anti-Immigration Attitudes; Unemployment; Labor Skills
    JEL: F22 J21 J24 J61 K37
    Date: 2022–03–28
  36. By: Rui Vilela Mendes; Tanya Araújo
    Abstract: Networks with long-range connections obeying a distance-dependent power law of sufficiently small exponent display superdiffusion, Lévy flights and robustness properties very different from the scale-free networks. It has been proposed that these networks, found both in society and biology, be classified as a new structure, the fractional networks. Particular important examples are the social networks and the modular hierarchical brain networks where both short and long-range connections are present. The anomalous superdiffusive and the mixed diffusion behavior of these networks is studied here as well as its relation to the nature and density of the long-range connections.
    Date: 2022–01
  37. By: Gary Koop; Stuart McIntyre; James Mitchell; Aubrey Poon
    Abstract: Recent decades have seen advances in using econometric methods to produce more timely and higher-frequency estimates of economic activity at the national level, enabling better tracking of the economy in real time. These advances have not generally been replicated at the sub–national level, likely because of the empirical challenges that nowcasting at a regional level presents, notably, the short time series of available data, changes in data frequency over time, and the hierarchical structure of the data. This paper develops a mixed– frequency Bayesian VAR model to address common features of the regional nowcasting context, using an application to regional productivity in the UK. We evaluate the contribution that different features of our model provide to the accuracy of point and density nowcasts, in particular the role of hierarchical aggregation constraints. We show that these aggregation constraints, imposed in stochastic form, play a key role in delivering improved regional nowcasts; they prove to be more important than adding region-specific predictors when the equivalent national data are known, but not when this aggregate is unknown.
    Keywords: Regional data; Mixed frequency; Nowcasting; Bayesian methods; Real-time data; Vector autoregressions
    JEL: C32 C53 E37
    Date: 2022–03–03
  38. By: Jurić, Tado
    Abstract: Background: This paper shows that Big Data and the so-called tools of digital demography, such as Google Trends (GT) and insights from social networks such as Instagram, Twitter and Facebook, can be useful for determining, estimating, and predicting the forced migration flows to the EU caused by the war in Ukraine. Objective: The objective of this study was to test the usefulness of Google Trends indexes to predict further forced migration from Ukraine to the EU (mainly to Germany) and gain demographic insights from social networks into the age and gender structure of refugees. Methods: The primary methodological concept of our approach is to monitor the digital trace of Internet searches in Ukrainian, Russian and English with the Google Trends analytical tool ( Initially, keywords were chosen that are most predictive, specific, and common enough to predict the forced migration from Ukraine. We requested the data before and during the war outbreak and divided the keyword frequency for each migration-related query to standardise the data. We compared this search frequency index with official statistics from UNHCR to prove the significations of results and correlations and test the models predictive potential. Since UNHCR does not yet have complete data on the demographic structure of refugees, to fill this gap, we used three other alternative Big Data sources: Facebook, Twitter and Instagram. Results: All tested migration-related search queries about emigration planning from Ukraine show the positive linear association between Google index and data from official UNHCR statistics; R2 = 0.1211 for searches in Russian and R2 = 0.1831 for searches in Ukrainian. It is noticed that Ukrainians use the Russian language more often to search for terms than Ukrainian. Increase in migration-related search activities in Ukraine such as граница (Rus. border), кордону (Ukr. border); Польща (Poland); Германия (Rus. Germany), Німеччина (Ukr. Germany) and Угорщина and Венгрия (Hungary) correlate strongly with officially UNHCR data for externally displaced persons from Ukraine. All three languages show that the interest in Poland is the highest. When refugees arrive in nearby countries, the search for terms related to Germany, such as crossing the border + Germany, etc., is proliferating. This result confirms our hypothesis that one-third of all refugees will cross into Germany. According to Big Data insights, the estimate of the total number of expected refugees is to expect 5,4 Million refugees. The age group most represented is between 24 and 45 years (data for children are unavailable), and over 65% are women. Conclusion: The increase in migration-related search queries is correlated with the rise in the number of refugees from Ukraine in the EU. Thus this method allows reliable forecasts. Understanding the consequences of forced migration from Ukraine is crucial to enabling UNHCR and governments to develop optimal humanitarian strategies and prepare for refugee reception and possible integration. The benefit of this method is reliable estimates and forecasting that can allow governments and UNHCR to prepare and better respond to the recent humanitarian crisis.
    Keywords: refugee,Ukraine,Big Data,forced migration,Google Trends,UNHCR
    Date: 2022
  39. By: Lichand, Guilherme; Belchior, Carlos Alberto; Leal Neto, Onicio Batista (University of Zurich); Cossi, João
    Abstract: School closures because of COVID-19 have left 1.6 billion students around the world without in-person classes for a prolonged period. To our knowledge, no study has documented whether reopening schools in low- and middle-income countries during the pandemic was associated with increased aggregate COVID-19 incidence and mortality with appropriate counterfactuals. This observational study of municipalities in São Paulo State, Brazil, uses a difference-in-differences analysis to examine the association between municipal decisions to reopen schools during the COVID-19 pandemic and municipal-level COVID-19 case and death rates between October and December 2020. The study compared 129 municipalities that reopened schools in 2020 with 514 that did not. The findings indicated that there were no statistically significant differences between municipalities that authorized schools to reopen and those that did not for (1) weekly new cases (difference-in-differences, –0.03; 95% CI, –0.09 to 0.03) and (2) weekly new deaths (difference-in-differences, –0.003; 95% CI, –0.011 to 0.004) before and after October 2020. Reopening schools was not associated with higher disease activity, even in relatively vulnerable municipalities, nor aggregate mobility. The findings from this study suggest that keeping schools open during the COVID-19 pandemic did not contribute to the aggregate disease activity.
    Date: 2022–02–14
  40. By: Zamarro, Gema (University of Arkansas); Camp, Andrew (University of Arkansas); Fuchsman, Dillon (Sinquefield Center for Applied Economic Research, Saint Louis University); McGee, Josh B. (University of Arkansas)
    Abstract: The 2020-2021 academic year was a trying year for teachers. We use a nationally representative sample of teachers from the RAND American Teacher Panel to document that teachers’ stated consideration of leaving the profession increased during the pandemic. We also study factors associated with teachers’ consideration of leaving the profession and high levels of job burnout during the pandemic. Approaching retirement age (being 55 or older), having to change instruction modes, health concerns, and high levels of job burnout all appear to be important predictors of the probability of considering leaving or retiring from teaching. Hybrid teaching increased consideration of leaving the profession because of COVID. Health concerns and switching instruction modes are all associated with higher levels of concern about job burnout. Interestingly, those approaching retirement ages do not present higher levels of concern about job burnout than younger teachers. Although increased consideration of leaving and concern about burnout do not yet appear to have materialized into higher attrition rates so far, higher levels of job dissatisfaction could affect teacher effectiveness and could harm student academic progress.
    Keywords: Teacher turnover; teacher retention; job burnout; COVID-19
    JEL: I20 J18 J28
    Date: 2022–02–28
  41. By: Schlegler, Maren; Koch, Susanne
    Abstract: The world is increasingly characterized by global and national disasters and crises. To cope with these, social cohesion is indispensable - and this in turn requires that young people are taught how to become responsible citizens. Strengthening students' personal development and social commitment are therefore key responsibilities of universities. Service-learning is one possibility to integrate these into teaching and learning, however studies on the effectiveness of service-learning in Europe - and especially in Germany - are rare. This paper examines the effects of service-learning, whereby three different study groups are compared. The study includes n=132 bachelor and master students, and shows that the groups' outcomes hardly differ from one another. It can tentatively be said that there are only minor differences between the formats and that service-learning is equal to more traditional teaching-learning formats, but again is not superior with regard to the variables investigated.
    Date: 2022
  42. By: Almatrudi, Sulaiman; Parvate, Kanaad; Rothchild, Daniel; Vijay, Upadhi; Jang, Kathy; Bayen, Alexandre
    Abstract: In an ideal world, all cars along a congested roadway would travel at the same constant average speed; however, this is hardly the case. As soon as one driver brakes, trailing cars must also brake to compensate, leading to “stop and go” traffic waves. This unnecessary braking and accelerating increases fuel consumption (and greenhouse gas emissions) by as much as 67 percent.1 Fortunately, automated vehicles (AVs) — even Level 2 AVs2 which are commercially available today — have the potential to mitigate this problem. By accelerating less than a human would, an AV with flow smoothing technology is able to smooth out a traffic wave, eventually leading to free-flowing traffic (See Figure 1). To demonstrate the potential of flow smoothing on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, researchers at UC Berkeley used a calibrated model of the I-210 freeway in Los Angeles to simulate and measure the effect of deploying different percentages (10%, 20%, 30%) of flow-smoothing AVs on the average miles per gallon (MPG) of non-AVs in the traffic system.
    Keywords: Engineering
    Date: 2022–02–01
  43. By: Corey Allan (Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment); David C. Maré (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)
    Abstract: We continue our examination of inclusive growth at the firm level by examining heterogeneity in rent sharing in New Zealand using linked employer-employee data. We test for heterogeneity in rent sharing across a range of worker and firm characteristics including gender, ethnicity, age, qualifications, tenure, firm size, firm age, and industry. We also refine our measure of quasi-rents and estimate the level of excess quasi-rents per worker, or the amount of rents above the threshold beyond which rent sharing occurs. We find that between 20% and 30% of workers are in firms that earn zero excess rents. These workers are concentrated in the hospitality, administrative services, and retail industries and are more likely to be women, to be M?ori or Pacific peoples, and have lower-level qualifications. We find an overall rent-sharing elasticity of 0.03, which is equivalent to a $38 increase in annual wages in response to a $1,000 increase in excess rents per worker. We find differences in rent sharing by levels of highest qualification, tenure, and ethnicity. We find no differences in rent sharing by firm size or firm age. Rent sharing is similar across industries, with workers in most industries receiving between $1,500 and $2,000 of rents per year. The auxiliary finance and professional, scientific, and technical services sectors share the most, while grocery retailing, food and beverage manufacturing and utilities share the least. Insurance type behaviour by firms is consistent with the variation in rent sharing across industries, although differences in bargaining power are also likely to play a role in explaining differences in rent sharing across groups.
    Keywords: Wage determination; Rent-sharing; imperfect competition.
    JEL: J3 J71 J10 D22
    Date: 2022–03
  44. By: Martina Miotto; Luigi Pascali
    Abstract: In the 19th century, the process of European expansion led to unprecedented changes in the urban landscape outside of Europe, with the urban population moving towards the coast and tripling in size. We argue that the majority of these changes can be explained by a single innovation, the chronometer, which allowed European explorers and merchants to measure longitude at sea. We use high-resolution global data on climate, ship routes, and demography from 1750 to 1900 to investigate empirically (i) the role of the adoption of the marine chronometer in re-routing trans-oceanic navigation, and (ii) the impact of these changes on the distribution of cities and population across the globe. Our identification relies on the differential impact of the chronometer across trans-oceanic sailing routes.
    Keywords: longitude, chronometer, gravity, globalization, trade, development
    JEL: F1 F15 F43 R12 R4
    Date: 2022–02
  45. By: Natsuki Arai (National Chengchi University); Masashige Hamano (Waseda University); Munechika Katayama (Waseda University); Yuki Murakami (Waseda University); Katsunori Yamada (Kindai University)
    Abstract: We quantify the impact of questions submitted by policymakers on the overtime work of Japanese government officials. We use mobile phone location data to measure the nighttime population in the government-office district at hourly frequency. Our measure is much less vulnerable to measurement errors than reported overtime working hours. Exploiting the institutional constraints, we estimate responses of the nighttime population to an exogenous increase in the number of questions submitted by using the method of local projection. We find that, on average, overtime work significantly increases and persists by midnight one week after the submission of the question. Based on our results, government officials, who are male in their 20s and female in their 40s, are the most heavily affected by the question. Furthermore, the effect on overtime work is estimated to be more pronounced when everything is paperbased, suggesting that improved efficiency using information technology can mitigate overtime work.
    Keywords: mobility data, overtime work, local projection; government officials
    JEL: C22 H11
    Date: 2022–03
  46. By: Federica Alberti (University of Portsmouth); Karen Johnston (University of Portsmouth); Foteini Kravari (University of Portsmouth)
    Abstract: We draw on the theory of representative bureaucracy to examine as to whether there is symbolic effects of a passively representative public organization. In this study we experimentally examine whether the gender representation of a police department affects the extent to which citizens find the department as an attractive place of employment. The results of the study show that there are no significant effects overall.
    Date: 2022–03–10
  47. By: Feiyang Shi (IHEID, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva)
    Abstract: Focusing on Sino-Indian trade, this paper uses detailed district-level data, exploits India's drastic increase in imports from China since 2001, and uses the instrumental variables approach to examine the impact of trade shock on the local labour market outcomes. Through a matching procedure, the geographical coverage of the paper is significantly improved comparing with prior studies. The range of labour market outcome variables examined is also much wider, including wage, residual wage fluctuation, and employment and underemployment as shares of working-age population. By exploiting spatial variations in industrial activities and labour participation in the industries, the paper finds that, unlike in some other cases, the import competition from China did not have a significant impact on the Indian district average wages. However, it did result in an increase in employment share. In further contribution, the paper also allows heterogeneous effects across consumption, age, gender, occupation and industrial groups. The results confirm that the effect of import shock is not uniformly distributed within the districts. Rather, it varies with respect to certain socio-economic characteristics.
    Keywords: International Trade; Wages; Income Inequality; Import shock; Underemployment
    JEL: F14 F16 J16
    Date: 2022–03–28
  48. By: William Lazonick (The Academic-Industry Research Network); Philip Moss (The Academic-Industry Research Network); Joshua Weitz (The Academic-Industry Research Network)
    Abstract: Thus far in reporting the findings of our project "Fifty Years After: Black Employment in the United States Under the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission," our analysis of what has happened to African American employment over the past half century has documented the importance of manufacturing employment to the upward socioeconomic mobility of Blacks in the 1960s and 1970s and the devastating impact of rationalization - the permanent elimination of blue-collar employment - on their socioeconomic mobility in the 1980s and beyond. The upward mobility of Blacks in the earlier decades was based on the Old Economy business model (OEBM) with its characteristic "career-with-one-company" (CWOC) employment relations. At its launching in 1965, the policy approach of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission assumed the existence of CWOC, providing corporate employees, Blacks included, with a potential path for upward socioeconomic mobility over the course of their working lives by gaining access to productive opportunities and higher pay through stable employment within companies. It was through these internal employment structures that Blacks could potentially overcome barriers to the long legacy of job and pay discrimination.
    Keywords: African American, Black. Asian, higher education, employment relations, equal employment opportunity, professionals, technology companies, Silicon Valley, Equal Employment Opportunity (EEO-1) data, social networks, employment discrimination.
    JEL: D2 D3 D8 D91 E23 F22 F23 F66 G35 H11 H52 I2 J15 J21 J24 J31 J44 J53 J71 J82 L2 L63 M14 M5 N82 O15 O32 O36 P12
    Date: 2022–02–18
  49. By: Bosque-Mercader, L.;
    Abstract: Early childhood education programmes are expected to improve child conditions including educational attainment, labour, and health outcomes. This study evaluates the effect of a Spanish universal preschool programme, which implied a large-scale expansion of full-time high-quality public preschool for three-year-olds in 1991, on long-term health. Using a difference-in-differences approach, I exploit the timing of the policy and the differential initial speed of implementation of public preschool expansion across regions. I compare long-term health of cohorts aged three before to those aged three after the start of the policy residing in regions with varying initial implementation intensity of the programme. The results show that the policy does not affect long-term health outcomes and use of healthcare services, except for two outcomes. A greater initial intensity in public preschool expansion by 10 percentage points decreases the likelihood of being diagnosed with asthma by 2.1 percentage points, but hospitalisation rates increase by 2.7%. The findings indicate that the effect on asthma is larger for men, hospitalisation rates are higher for pregnant women, and disadvantaged children benefit the most in terms of a lower probability of taking medicines and being diagnosed with asthma and mental health disorders.
    Keywords: universal preschool programme; long-term effects; health outcomes; difference-in-differences; Spain;
    JEL: I10 I28 J13
    Date: 2022–03
  50. By: Zheng, Han; Hongtao, Li
    Abstract: This paper offers a variant of Ricardian model able to structurally interpret the estimate of country-specific variable—transportation infrastructure in a commonly used fixed effect gravity estimation. Guided by this new theoretical framework, this paper shows that transportation infrastructure enhances international trade more than internal trade and this result is robust to various estimation methods and different versions of transportation infrastructure measures. Moreover, it shows that the transportation infrastructure has a non-negative effect on internal trade. Further quantitative analysis suggests 10% increase in transportation infrastructure induce 3.9% increase in real income and more than 95% of the gains concentrate on the infrastructure improving country. All the above results suggest that better infrastructure leads to sizable gains providing additional empirical support to policies aiming to improve transportation infrastructure. This paper also suggests, contrary to what ACR formula claims, domestic goods expenditure share change is no longer sufficient to predict how real income changes.
    Keywords: Gravity model, Transportation infrastructure, Internal trade cost
    JEL: F10 F14
    Date: 2022–03
  51. By: Wang, Pei; McKeever, Benjamin; Chan, Ching-Yao
    Abstract: Automated vehicle (AV) deployment can bring about transformational changes to transportation and society as a whole. The infrastructure owner-operators (IOOs), who own, maintain, and operate the infrastructure, have the opportunity to work jointly with the AV industry to provide safe and efficient operations. A key question for the IOOs is, “What transportation infrastructure improvements do AV manufacturers believe will facilitate and improve AV performance?” This study was designed to address this question through a comprehensive survey approach, including an online survey and follow-up interviews. A list of ten questions was discussed, covering the physical and digital infrastructure, infrastructure maintenance, standards and specifications, policy support, data sharing, and so forth. The researchers reached out to more than 60 entities who hold the AV testing permit in California. In total, 20 companies responded. They were from different sectors and well represented the AV industry. From the results of this study, it is concluded that the most important roadway characteristics that have the potential to benefit the automated driving system (ADS) are: (1) digital mapping and signage; (2) lane markings; (3) work zone and incident information; (4) vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communications; (5) actual traffic signals; (6) general signage; and (7) lighting. The digital features considered most critical to help accelerate ADS deployment include work zone and road closure information, traffic signal phase and timing, and traffic congestion. This study provides diverse voices and in-depth insights into topics that the AV industry and IOOs should engage in to advance AVs’ deployment.
    Keywords: Engineering
    Date: 2022–03–09
  52. By: Loredana Cultrera; Benoit Mahy; François Rycx; Guillaume Vermeylen
    Abstract: This paper is among the firsts to investigate the impact of overeducation and overskilling on workers’ wages using a unique pan-European database covering twenty-eight countries for the year 2014, namely the CEDEFOP’s European Skills and Jobs (ESJ) survey. Overall, the results suggest a wage penalty associated with overeducation. When interacting educational mismatch with skills mismatch into apparent overeducation and genuine overeducation, the results suggest that the highest wage penalty is reached for workers that are both overeducated and overskilled.
    Keywords: Educational Mismatch; Skills Mismatch; Wages; European Survey
    JEL: J21 J24
    Date: 2022–02–24
  53. By: Bahman Lahoorpoor; David Levinson (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney)
    Abstract: Has Sydney lost access by removing its extensive tram network? We compare the 1925 tram network with today’s bus network, and conclude that the access provided today exceeds what would have been provided by just trams. The Sydney CBD would have had better access if 1925’s central tram lines were still in operation.
    Keywords: Access, Public transit, Trams, Isochrones
    JEL: R41 N17
    Date: 2022
  54. By: Francesco Bripi (Bank of Italy); Raffaello Bronzini (Bank of Italy); Elena Gentili (Bank of Italy); Andrea Linarello (Bank of Italy); Elisa Scarinzi (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: In this paper, we study the structural change in the Centre-North and the South of Italy, focusing on its implications for productivity dynamics and its microeconomic determinants. We document three main results. First, between 2001 and 2018 the deindustrialization process involved both parts of Italy, but in the South it started after the financial crisis and was more pronounced. In the southern regions, the employment shares in low knowledge-intensive services increased more than in the Centre-North, whereas those in the high knowledge-intensive services increased less. Second, structural changes slowed down productivity growth in the Centre-North, but had no role in the fall of productivity registered in the South. Finally, in the Centre-North employment growth has been driven by the net creation of jobs among incumbents and larger firms. In contrast, employment dynamics in the southern regions largely reflected the process of firms entering and exiting the market, in particular in less knowledge-intensive service sectors, and in young and smaller enterprises.
    Keywords: structural change, firm dynamics, North-South gap, productivity growth, shift-share analysis
    JEL: R00 R11 L16 O41 O47
    Date: 2022–03
  55. By: Maria Koumenta (Queen Mary, University of London); Mario Pagliero (University of Turin, Collegio Carlo Alberto, CEPR); Davud Rostam-Afschar (University of Mannheim, University of Hohenheim)
    Abstract: We study how licensing, certification and unionisation affect the wages of natives and migrants and their representation among licensed, certified, and unionized workers. We provide evidence of a dual role of labor market institutions, which both screen workers based on unobservable characteristics and also provide them with wage setting power. Labor market institutions confer significant wage premia to native workers (3.9, 1.6, and 2.7 log points for licensing, certification, and unionization respectively), due to screening and wage setting power. Wage premia are significantly larger for licensed and certified migrants (10.2 and 6.6 log points), reflecting a more intense screening of migrant than native workers. The representation of migrants among licensed (but not certified or unionized) workers is 14% lower than that of natives. This implies a more intense screening of migrants by licensing institutions than by certification and unionization.
    Keywords: Occupational regulation, Licensing, Certification, Unionization, Migration, Wages
    JEL: J61 J31 J44 J71 J16
    Date: 2022–03
  56. By: Marcelo Delajara; Rocío Espinosa Montiel; Claudia E. Fonseca; Martha Anker; Richard Anker (Centro de Estudios Espinosa Yglesias)
    Abstract: We present estimates of the living wage in the municipalities of Ensenada and San Quintín, Baja California, México. Economic activity in these municipalities is concentrated in agriculture and fishing, and to a much lesser extent in industry. In the calculation, we used the Anker and Anker (2017) methodology and data from both primary and secondary sources. We show that the living wage in the municipality of Ensenada is MXN 15,929 (US$ 800) per month, which consists of take-home pay of MNX 13,539 (US$ 680) and MNX 2,389 (US$ 120) in income tax and social security. For San Quintín, the living wage is MXN 15,009 (US$ 754) per month consisting of take-home pay of MXN 12,835 (US$ 645) with MXN 2,174 (US$ 109) in social security contribution and income tax. These results highlight the need to continue promoting dialogue between companies, workers and the government to improve wage conditions in Baja California.
    Date: 2021

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