nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2022‒03‒14
thirty-two papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Property investment and housing affordability in Lisbon and Porto By Teresa Sá Marques; Miguel Saraiva; Fátima Loureiro de Matos; Catarina Maia; Diogo Ribeiro; Márcio Ferreira; Sjoerdje van Heerden
  2. Local Retail Prices, Product Varieties and Neighborhood Change By Fernando Borraz; Felipe Carozzi; Nicolás González-Pampillón; Leandro Zipitría
  3. Heterogeneous Peer Effects under Endogenous Selection: An Application to Local and Migrant Children in Elementary Schools in Shanghai By Chen, Yuanyuan; Feng, Shuaizhang; Yang, Chao
  4. Stuck at Home: Housing Demand During the COVID-19 Pandemic By Gamber, William; Graham, James; Yadav, Anirudh
  5. Can you move to opportunity? Evidence from the Great Migration By Ellora Derenoncourt
  6. Air pollution in an urban world: A global view on density, cities and emissions By David Castells-Quintana; Elisa Dienesch; Melanie Krause
  7. Police violence reduces civilian cooperation and engagement with law enforcement By Desmond Ang; Panka Bencsik; Jesse Bruhn; Ellora Derenoncourt
  8. The Covid-19 pandemic and school closure: learning loss in mathematics in primary education By Dalit Contini; Maria Laura Di Tommaso; Caterina Muratori; Daniela Piazzalunga; Lucia Schiavon
  9. Spatial Wage Curves for Formal and Informal Workers in Turkey By Baltagi, Badi H.; Baskaya, Yusuf Soner
  10. BikewaySim and Complete Paths Networks are Expected to Improve Modeling of Bicycle Activity and Route Choice By Passmore, Reid; Watkins, Kari E.; Guensler, Randall
  11. Targeted Vouchers, Competition Among Schools, and the Academic Achievement of Poor Students By Christopher A. Neilson
  12. Smart Matching Platforms and Heterogeneous Beliefs in Centralized School Choice By Felipe Arteaga; Adam J. Kapor; Christopher A. Neilson; Seth D. Zimmerman
  13. Immigrating into a Recession: Evidence from Family Migrants to the U.S. By Toman Barsbai; Andreas Steinmayr; Christoph Winter
  14. What Caused Racial Disparities in Particulate Exposure to Fall? New Evidence from the Clean Air Act and Satellite-Based Measures of Air Quality By Janet Currie; John Voorheis; Reed Walker
  15. The New Franco -Genevan Rail Passenger Service "Léman Express": The Challenge of Sustainable Mobility in the Cross-Border Metropolis of Greater Geneva? By Laurent Guihéry
  16. An Investigation on Intercohort Income Inequalities and Millennials Impoverishment in Great Britains Regions By Sarandrea, Marco
  17. The Effect of borrower-specific Loan-to-Value policies on household debt, wealth inequality and consumption volatility By Ruben Tarne; Dirk Bezemer; Thomas Theobald
  18. Consequences of a Massive Refugee Influx on Firm Performance and Market Structure By Yusuf Emre Akgündüz; Yusuf Kenan Bağır; Seyit Mümin Cılasun; Murat Güray Kırdar
  19. URBANIZATION AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE ENVIRONMENT By Thanh, Nguyen Duc; Thao, Nguyen Thi Phuong; Tâm, Ngô Mỹ; Quyen, Luu Thi Truc; Thao, Nguyen Thu; Thư, Nguyễn Phúc; Thu, Phạm Minh; Thương, Nguyễn Thị; Thúy, Trịnh Minh; Thuy, Hoang Bich
  20. Government Fragmentation and Economic Growth By Cassidy, Traviss; Velayudhan, Tejaswi
  21. Refinancing and The Transmission of Monetary Policy to Consumption By Arlene Wong
  22. School Choice with Consent: An Experiment By Cerrone, Claudia; Hermstrüwer, Yoan; Kesten, Onur
  23. School starting age and nutritional outcomes: Evidence from Brazil By Pierre Levasseur
  24. Environmental Factors and Internal Migration in India By Komeda, Kenji
  25. Does Over-Education Raise Productivity And Wages Equally ? The Moderating Role Of Workers’ Origin And Immigrants’ Background By Valentine Jacobs; François Rycx; Mélanie Volral
  26. Migration on the Rise, a Paradigm in Decline: The Last Half-Century of Global Mobility By Michael A. Clemens
  27. Gangs, Labor Mobility, and Development By Nikita Melnikov; Carlos Schmidt-Padilla; María Micaela Sviatschi
  28. Self-Confidence and Motivated Memory Loss: Evidence from Schools By Roy-Chowdhury, V.
  29. Do Good Carefully: The Long-Term Effects of DDT Exposure in Early Childhood on Education and Employment By Chang, Simon; Kan, Kamhon
  30. Limbo or Leverage? Asylum waiting and refugee integration By Olof Åslund; Olof Rosenqvist
  31. Selected online learning experiences in the Caribbean during COVID-19 By Bleeker, Amelia; Crowder, Ryan
  32. What Do We Know About Public Teacher Compensation? By Siyan Liu; Jean-Pierre Aubry

  1. By: Teresa Sá Marques (CEGOT – Centre of Studies in Geography and Spatial Planning, of the Faculty of Arts and Humanities of the University of Porto); Miguel Saraiva (CEGOT – Centre of Studies in Geography and Spatial Planning, of the Faculty of Arts and Humanities of the University of Porto); Fátima Loureiro de Matos (CEGOT – Centre of Studies in Geography and Spatial Planning, of the Faculty of Arts and Humanities of the University of Porto); Catarina Maia (CEGOT – Centre of Studies in Geography and Spatial Planning, of the Faculty of Arts and Humanities of the University of Porto); Diogo Ribeiro (CEGOT – Centre of Studies in Geography and Spatial Planning, of the Faculty of Arts and Humanities of the University of Porto); Márcio Ferreira (CEGOT – Centre of Studies in Geography and Spatial Planning, of the Faculty of Arts and Humanities of the University of Porto); Sjoerdje van Heerden (European Commission – JRC)
    Abstract: This study describes how the housing markets in Lisbon and Porto have developed over the past decade, in terms of property investment and housing affordability. Like many cities in Europe, Portugal’s two biggest cities have witnessed significant changes in their housing markets. Foremost, both cities have become increasingly attractive to tourists, as well as investors. Foreign direct investment in real estate and construction doubled in the last 10 years. These capital inflows strongly contributed to the regeneration and revitalization of inner city neighbourhoods. At the same time, these developments are associated with an increasing socio-spatial segmentation of the residential market. In 2019, the average number of months until a dwelling is sold or rented has decreased to record low values. In parallel, the years of income needed for families to acquire a home substantially increased. In central Lisbon and Porto, as well as adjoining municipalities in the metropolitan area, the percentage of average monthly income spent on rental costs for the lower classes, can increase above 69%. A number of policies have been implemented to attract (foreign) investment and to stimulate renovation, as well as to support and increase housing affordability. Moreover, in response to its impact on house prices and evictions of residents, short-term accommodation for tourists has been progressively regulated since 2014. Nonetheless, in general, housing affordability in both cities decreased for the middle classes and the younger generations, whereas locally driven incomes are not compatible with the more globally driven house and rental price developments.
    Keywords: housing affordability, housing market, Lisbon, Porto, rental market,house prices, tourism, Portugal.
    Date: 2022–02
  2. By: Fernando Borraz (Banco Central del Uruguay; Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República; Universidad de Montevideo); Felipe Carozzi (Department of Geography and the Environment. London School of Economics); Nicolás González-Pampillón (What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth - LSE; Institut d’Economia de Barcelona (IEB).); Leandro Zipitría (Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República)
    Abstract: We study how retail prices within a city are affected by changes in local housing markets. Our empirical strategy is based on an exogenous shift in the spatial distribution of the construction activity induced by a large-scale, place-based tax exemption in the city of Montevideo. We provide differences-in-differences and instrumental variable estimates showing that the price of retail goods decreases in areas within the city that experience more residential development. We use a multi-product model of imperfect competition to relate this change to an expansion in either product varieties or firm entry. We report evidence in support of the varieties channel, with new development causing an increase in the number of varieties available locally. Our results have implications for urban planning policy and the broader discussion about winners and losers from neighborhood change.
    Keywords: Retail Prices, Housing Stock, Neighborhood Change
    JEL: R23 R32
    Date: 2021
  3. By: Chen, Yuanyuan (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics); Feng, Shuaizhang (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics); Yang, Chao (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)
    Abstract: This paper develops a model that allows for heterogenous contemporaneous peer effects among different types of agents who are endogenously selected into different peer groups. Using our framework, we characterize the reduced-form coefficient in the peer effect literature and show that it is a priori ambiguous in sign. We apply our approach to migrant and local students in Shanghai, where local students all go to public schools, but migrant students are endogenously selected into either public schools or lower-quality private schools. The results suggest large contemporaneous peer effects among all student groups. We conduct policy experiments to examine the effect of transferring migrant students from private schools to public schools. We show that peer effect can be substantially more important than the school effect in accounting for the total treatment effect of moving to better schools.
    Keywords: peer effects, sample selection, education, migrant children
    JEL: C31 C34 I21
    Date: 2022–02
  4. By: Gamber, William; Graham, James; Yadav, Anirudh
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic induced an increase in both the amount of time that households spend at home and the share of expenditures allocated to at-home consumption. These changes coincided with a period of rapidly rising house prices. We interpret these facts as the result of stay-at-home shocks that increase demand for goods consumed at home as well as the homes that those goods are consumed in. We first test the hypothesis empirically using US cross-county panel data and instrumental variables regressions. We find that counties where households spent more time at home experienced faster increases in house prices. We then study various pandemic shocks using a heterogeneous agent model with general equilibrium in housing markets. Stay-at-home shocks explain around half of the increase in model house prices in 2020. Lower mortgage rates explain around one third of the price rise, while unemployment shocks and fiscal stimulus have relatively small effects on house prices. We find that young households and first-time home buyers account for much of the increase in housing demand during the pandemic, but they are largely crowded out of the housing market by the equilibrium rise in house prices.
    Keywords: COVID-19; Pandemic; Stay at Home; Housing; House Prices; Consumption; Mortgage Interest Rates; Unemployment; Fiscal Stimulus
    Date: 2021–11
  5. By: Ellora Derenoncourt (Princeton University)
    Abstract: This paper shows that racial composition shocks during the Great Migration (1940-1970) reduced the gains from growing up in the northern United States for Black families and can explain 27% of the region’s racial upward mobility gap today. I identify northern Black share increases by interacting pre-1940 Black migrants’ location choices with predicted southern county out-migration. Locational changes, not negative selection of families, explain lower upward mobility, with persistent segregation and increased crime and policing as plausible mechanisms. The case of the Great Migration provides a more nuanced view of moving to opportunity when destination reactions are taken into account.
    Keywords: migration
    JEL: R23
    Date: 2021–08
  6. By: David Castells-Quintana (Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona, University of Barcelona, AQR-IREA); Elisa Dienesch (IEP Aix-en-Provence - Sciences Po Aix - Institut d'études politiques d'Aix-en-Provence, AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Melanie Krause (University of Hamburg)
    Abstract: In this paper, we take a global view at air pollution looking at cities and countries worldwide. We pay special attention at the spatial distribution of population and its relationship with the evolution of emissions. To do so, we build i) a unique and large dataset for more than 1200 (big) cities around the world, combining data on emissions of CO2 and PM2.5 with satellite data on built-up areas, population and light intensity at night at the grid-cell level for the last two decades, and ii) a large dataset for more than 190 countries with data from 1960 to 2010. At the city level, we find that denser cities show lower emissions per capita. We also find evidence for the importance of the spatial structure of the city, with polycentricity being associated with lower emissions in the largest urban areas, while monocentricity being more beneficial for smaller cities. In sum, our results suggest that the size and structure of urban areas matters when studying the density-emissions relationship. This is reinforced by results using our country-level data where we find that higher density in urban areas is associated with lower emissions per capita. All our main findings are robust to several controls and different specifications and estimation techniques, as well as different identification strategies.
    Keywords: Density,Pollution,Cities,City structure,Development
    Date: 2021–11
  7. By: Desmond Ang (Harvard University); Panka Bencsik (University of Chicago); Jesse Bruhn (Brown University); Ellora Derenoncourt (Princeton University)
    Abstract: How do high-profile acts of police brutality affect public trust and cooperation with law enforcement? To investigate this question, we develop a new measure of civilian crime reporting that isolates changes in community engagement with police from underlying changes in crime: the ratio of police-related 911 calls to gunshots detected by ShotSpotter technology. Examining detailed data from eight major American cities, we show a sharp drop in both the call-to-shot ratio and 911 call volume immediately after the police murder of George Floyd in May 2020. Notably, reporting rates decreased significantly in both non-white and white neighborhoods across the country. These effects persist for several months, and we find little evidence that they were reversed by the conviction of Floyd’s murderer. Together, the results illustrate how acts of police violence may destroy a key input into effective law enforcement and public safety: civilian engagement and reporting.
    Keywords: police, crime reporting, use of force, race
    JEL: K4
    Date: 2021–09
  8. By: Dalit Contini; Maria Laura Di Tommaso; Caterina Muratori; Daniela Piazzalunga; Lucia Schiavon
    Abstract: Italy was the first Western country hit by Covid-19 in February 2020, responding with a tight lockdown and full school closure until the end of the school year. This paper estimates the effect of the pandemic and school closure on the math skills of primary school pupils in Italy. We compare the learning achievements of two cohorts of pupils, the pre-Covid and the Covid cohort. For both cohorts, we match scores on the national standardised assessment in grade 2 with scores on a standardised test delivered by the researchers at the end of grade 3. The pandemic had a large negative impact on the pupils' performance in mathematics (-0.19 standard deviations). Among children of low-educated parents, the learning loss was larger for the best-performing ones (up to -0.51 s.d.) and for girls (-0.29 s.d.).
    Keywords: COVID-19, school closure, learning loss, mathematics, standardised tests, inequality, primary school
    JEL: I21 I24
    Date: 2021
  9. By: Baltagi, Badi H. (Syracuse University); Baskaya, Yusuf Soner (University of Glasgow)
    Abstract: This paper estimates spatial wage curves for formal and informal workers in Turkey using individual level data from the Turkish Household Labor Force Survey (THLFS) provided by TURKSTAT for the period 2008-2014. Unlike previous studies on wage curves for formal and informal workers, we extend the analysis to allow for spatial effects. We also consider household characteristics that would affect the selection into formal employment, informal employment, and non-employment. We find that the spatial wage curve relation holds both for formal and informal workers in Turkey for a variety of specifications. In general, the wages of informal workers are more sensitive to the unemployment rates of the same region and other regions than formal workers. We find that accounting for the selection into formal and informal employment affects the magnitudes but not the significance of the spatial wage curves for the formal and informal workers with the latter always being larger in absolute value than that for formal workers.
    Keywords: spatial wage curve, spatial weights, regional labor markets, informal labor markets
    JEL: C21 J30 J60
    Date: 2022–02
  10. By: Passmore, Reid; Watkins, Kari E.; Guensler, Randall
    Abstract: Many cities are focused on increasing bicycle use through development of infrastructure such as bicycle lanes and multi-use paths. Traditionally, travel demand models (TDMs) are used to evaluate the demand for (and impact of) proposed transportation projects. However, the vast majority of TDMs cannot be used to evaluate the impact of bicycle projects. Improved TDMs are needed to help estimate the impacts of new bicycle projects on cycling activity and prioritize the construction of the most beneficial bicycle projects with limited transportation department resources. To more accurately model bicycle travel, preference-based route assignments are needed. Researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology created a semi-automated process for developing an all-streets network to be used in TDM applications. The researchers combined detailed roadway characteristic information from three different transportation networks in GIS shapefile format and used BikewaySim, Georgia Tech’s newly developed shortest-path calculator for cycling trips, to compare shortest-path routing on the newly created all-streets network versus the simplified TDM network for a 12-square-mile study area in Atlanta. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Bikeways, Routes and routing, Shortest path algorithms, Travel time
    Date: 2022–02–01
  11. By: Christopher A. Neilson (Princeton University)
    Abstract: I develop a model of supply and demand with imperfect competition to study the primary education market in Chile. I use this framework to empirically analyze how voucher policy affects competitive incentives for schools to supply quality. First, I show descriptive and causal evidence that the introduction of a voucher targeted at poorer students led private schools to improve quality, especially in the poorest neighborhoods. Then, I use my estimated demand model to quantify the mechanisms that incentivized for-profit schools to improve. My estimates indicate that schools mark down quality below the competitive benchmark, and this markdown is larger in poorer areas. The targeted voucher policy induced nuanced changes in the two mechanisms that drive the observed improvements in quality in my model market power and marginal revenue. The results indicate that the policy improved equity by providing more resources and increasing competition in neighborhoods where incentives to invest in quality are weakest.
    Keywords: School Choice, School Competition, Targeted Vouchers, Market Power, Chile
    JEL: I20
    Date: 2021–05
  12. By: Felipe Arteaga (University of California at Berkley); Adam J. Kapor (Princeton University); Christopher A. Neilson (Princeton University); Seth D. Zimmerman (Yale University)
    Abstract: Many school districts with centralized school choice adopt strategyproof assignment mechanisms to relieve applicants of the need to strategize on the basis of beliefs about their own admissions chances. This paper shows that beliefs about admissions chances shape choice outcomes even when the assignment mechanism is strategyproof by influencing the way applicants search for schools, and that "smart matching platforms" that provide live feedback on admissions chances help applicants search more effectively. Motivated by a model in which applicants engage in costly search for schools and over-optimism can lead to under-search, we use data from a largescale survey of choice participants in Chile to show that learning about schools is hard, that beliefs about admissions chances guide the decision to stop searching, and that applicants systematically underestimate non-placement risk. We then use RCT and RD research designs to evaluate live feedback policies in the Chilean and New Haven choice systems. 22% of applicants submitting applications where risks of non-placement are high respond to warnings by adding schools to their lists, reducing non-placement risk by 58%. These results replicate across settings and over time. Reducing the strategic burden of school choice requires not just strategyproofness inside the centralized system, but also choice supports for the strategic decisions that inevitably remain outside of it.
    Keywords: education, schools
    JEL: D83 H75 I2 J01
    Date: 2021–06
  13. By: Toman Barsbai (Toman Barsbai); Andreas Steinmayr (Andreas Steinmayr); Christoph Winter (Christoph Winter)
    Abstract: We analyze how economic conditions at the time of arrival affect the economic integration of family-sponsored migrants in the U.S. Our identification strategy exploits long waiting times for family-sponsored immigration visas that decouple the migration decision from economic conditions at the time of arrival. A one pp higher unemployment rate at arrival decreases annual wage income by four percent in the short run and two percent in the longer run. The loss in wage income is the result of substantial occupational downgrading, lower hourly wages, and a reduction in working hours. Family migrants who immigrate into a recession draw on migrant and family networks to mitigate the negative labor market effects. As a result, they take up occupations with higher concentrations of fellow countrypeople. They are also more likely to reside with family members, potentially reducing their geographical mobility.
    Keywords: Immigrant integration, family reunification, migrant networks, labor market, business cycle
    JEL: E32 F22 J31 J61
    Date: 2022–01
  14. By: Janet Currie (Princeton University); John Voorheis (U.S. Bureau of the Census); Reed Walker (University of California, Berkeley)
    Abstract: Racial differences in exposure to ambient air pollution have declined significantly in the United States over the past 20 years. This project links administrative Census microdata to newly available, spatially continuous high resolution measures of ambient particulate pollution (PM2.5) to examine the underlying causes and consequences of differences in Black-White pollution exposures. We begin by decomposing differences in pollution exposure into components explained by observable population characteristics (e.g., income) versus those that remain unexplained. We then use quantile regression methods to show that a significant portion of the "unexplained" convergence in Black-White pollution exposure can be attributed to differential impacts of the Clean Air Act (CAA) in African American and non-Hispanic White communities. Areas with larger Black populations saw greater CAA-related declines in PM2.5 exposure. We show that the CAA has been the single largest contributor to racial convergence in PM2.5 pollution exposure in the U.S. since 2000 accounting for over 60 percent of the reduction.
    Keywords: Pollution, Socioeconomic factors, Minority & ethnic groups
    JEL: H4 I14 J18 Q5 Q53
    Date: 2021–10
  15. By: Laurent Guihéry (CY - CY Cergy Paris Université)
    Abstract: The Léman Express is the achievement of an old project of connecting Geneva with the French hinterland of Annemasse and the North East part of the Region Auvergne Rhône-Alpes. 16 km of new tracks have been build (2 km in France and 14 km in Geneva with 5 new underground stations). This Swiss-French rail service is opened to cross-border commuters mainly since Mid-December 2019 on 230 km of tracks from Coppet to Annecy, Thonon, Bellegarde and Evian. 50 000 passengers are targeted for this service: now around 40 000 passengers are travelling every day in March 2021. 500 000 commuters cross the French-Swiss boundaries every day, which means a huge impact in terms of congestion and greenhouse effects and this new service will speed up modal transfer towards rail. Mid-2021, reliability of the system and quality passenger information have to be improved. The key issue is to improve the French-Swiss interoperability of rail system.
    Keywords: France,Switzerland,Geneva,Rail Passenger Transport,Léman Express
    Date: 2021–12–31
  16. By: Sarandrea, Marco (University of Warwick)
    Abstract: This paper investigates intercohort income inequalities and Millennials’ impoverishment in Great Britain between 1991 and 2018, focusing on the regional heterogeneity of the phenomena. Results show that Millennials’ cohorts (1980-1984 and 1985-1989) are the first ever to experience intercohort income regressions and that inequalities are extremely diverse among regions. Each cohort’s monthly incomes are compared to the previous cohort’s for Great Britain, England’s macro-areas and for Government offices for the regions (GORs). In Great Britain, the 1980-1984 cohort loses £144 each month compared to the 1975-1979 cohort. The cohort-on-cohort income reduction increases to £297 for the 1985-1989 cohort. In Northern England, Millennials experience intercohort income regressions only for the 1985-1989 cohort. In Southern England, the 1985-1989 cohort sees a higher intercohort income regression than the 1980-1984 cohort in absolute terms (- £368 for 1980-1984 versus - £425 for 1985-1989). The same happens in the North (+ £68 for 1980-1984 versus - £407 for 1985-1989), whereas in the Midlands regressions are constant for both cohorts (- £151 for 1980-1984 and - £148 for 1985-1989). The 1980-1984 cohort undergoes a substantial cohort-on-cohort income loss only in four GORs, even enjoying income increases in three GORs.
    Keywords: Economic Geography ; Regional Inequality ; Spatial ; Intergenerational Income Distribution ; Intergenerational Mobility JEL Classification: R12 ; E24 ; J62
    Date: 2021
  17. By: Ruben Tarne (Macroeconomic Policy Institute, University of Groningen); Dirk Bezemer (University of Groningen); Thomas Theobald (Macroeconomic Policy Institute)
    Abstract: This paper analyses the effects of borrower-specific credit constraints on macroeconomic outcomes in an agent-based housing market model, calibrated using U.K. household survey data. We apply different Loan-to-Value (LTV) caps for different types of agents: first-time-buyers, second and subsequent buyers, and buy-to-let investors. We then analyse the outcomes on household debt, wealth inequality and consumption volatility. The households' consumption function, in the model, incorporates a wealth term and income-dependent marginal propensities to consume. These characteristics cause the consumption-to-income ratios to move procyclically with the housing cycle. In line with the empirical literature, LTV caps in the model are overall effective while generating (distributional) side effects. Depending on the specification, we find that borrower-specific LTV caps affect household debt, wealth inequality and consumption volatility differently, mediated by changes in the housing market transaction patterns of the model. Restricting investors' access to credit leads to substantial reductions in debt, wealth inequality and consumption volatility. Limiting first-time and subsequent buyers produces only weak effects on household debt and consumption volatility, while limiting first-time buyers even increases wealth inequality. Hence, our findings emphasise the importance of applying borrower-specific macroprudential policies and, specifically, support a policy approach of primarily restraining buy-to-let investors' access to credit.
    Keywords: Agent-based modeling, Macroprudential regulation, Household indebtedness, Housing market, Wealth inequality
    JEL: G51 E58 C63
    Date: 2021
  18. By: Yusuf Emre Akgündüz (Yusuf Emre Akgündüz); Yusuf Kenan Bağır (Yusuf Kenan Bağır); Seyit Mümin Cılasun (Seyit Mümin Cılasun); Murat Güray Kırdar (Murat Güray Kırdar)
    Abstract: This study combines an administrative dataset of the full population of Turkish firms and the setting of the sudden mass migration of Syrian refugees to Turkey to identify the effect of migrants on firm performance and market structure. We find that economic activity increases in hosting regions, but negative implications exist for long-term productivity. As a result of the migrant shock, exiting firms expand and new firms are established; however, the resulting market structure shows less concentration. Quantitatively, a 10 percentage-point rise in the migrant-to-native ratio increases firm sales by 3.8% and the number of active firms by 5.8%, but reduces firms’ average market share by 4.1%. We further document an increase in the export volume and variety of exported products to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. In addition, a decline in export prices is observed, implying a rise in the competitiveness of exporting firms. We also uncover evidence for an effect of migrants’ skills and networks on exports, as the export value and variety of products to the MENA region increase more than those to the EU region while the prices of products exported to the two regions show similar changes.
    Keywords: refugees, firm performance, market structure, sales, informality, exports, migrant business networks.
    JEL: J15 J61 F16 L11
    Date: 2022–02
  19. By: Thanh, Nguyen Duc; Thao, Nguyen Thi Phuong; Tâm, Ngô Mỹ; Quyen, Luu Thi Truc; Thao, Nguyen Thu; Thư, Nguyễn Phúc; Thu, Phạm Minh; Thương, Nguyễn Thị; Thúy, Trịnh Minh; Thuy, Hoang Bich
    Abstract: Big cities have always been likened to "global leaders" and always have innovative policies that are increasingly transcending national boundaries and shaping domestic trends. and international. More than half of the world's population now lives in urban areas and by 2050, this number could increase to more than six billion people. From there, we can see that the process of urbanization is taking place more and more rapidly, and then leading to disorganized urbanization.
    Date: 2021–12–17
  20. By: Cassidy, Traviss; Velayudhan, Tejaswi
    Abstract: How does the fragmentation of local governments affect economic activity? We examine this question in the context of a major period of decentralization in Indonesia in which the number of local governments increased by 50 percent within a decade. Exploiting idiosyncratic variation in the timing of district splits, we find that fragmentation reduces district GDP in the short run---despite large increases in central transfers. The downsides of fragmentation due to economies of scale and the inexperience of new government personnel outweigh the potential upsides of increased accountability and competition. The GDP decline is larger in ``child'' districts that acquire a new capital and government. Furthermore, splitting districts spend more on administration and show no improvement in the areas of public good provision, red tape, and corruption.
    Keywords: Economic growth, local governments, economies of scale, rent-seeking
    JEL: D73 H77 O43 O47
    Date: 2022–02–18
  21. By: Arlene Wong (Princeton University)
    Abstract: This paper examines the role of the refinancing channel and the mortgage market structure for the transmission of monetary policy to consumption. First, I document heterogeneous consumption responses to monetary policy shocks. I find a large consumption response for homeowners who refinance or enter new loans, which is concentrated among younger people. Second, I develop a life-cycle model with fixed rate mortgages that explains these facts. Moving from a fixed to a variable rate mortgage structure reduces the heterogeneous effects of monetary policy on consumption by age. At the same time, the aggregate effects of monetary policy on consumption are increased substantially.
    Keywords: Consumption; monetary policy; refinancing; heterogeneous responses; age
    JEL: E52 E21
    Date: 2021–03
  22. By: Cerrone, Claudia; Hermstrüwer, Yoan; Kesten, Onur
    Abstract: Public school choice often yields student placements that are neither fair nor efficient. Kesten (2010) proposed an efficiency-adjusted deferred acceptance algorithm (EADAM) that allows students to consent to waive priorities that have no effect on their assignment. In this article, we provide first experimental evidence on the performance of EADAM. We compare EADAM with the deferred acceptance mechanism (DA) and with two variants of EADAM. In the first variant, we vary the default option: students can object – rather than consent – to the priority waiver. In the second variant, the priority waiver is enforced. We find that both efficiency and truth-telling rates are substantially higher under EADAM than under DA, even though EADAM is not strategy-proof. When the priority waiver is enforced, we observe that efficiency further increases, while truth-telling rates decrease relative to the EADAM variants where students can decide to eschew the waiver. Our results challenge the importance of strategy-proofness as a condition of truth-telling and point at a trade-off between efficiency and vulnerability to preference manipulation.
    Keywords: efficiency-adjusted deferred acceptance algorithm; school choice; consent; default rules; law
    Date: 2021–10
  23. By: Pierre Levasseur (SADAPT - Sciences pour l'Action et le Développement : Activités, Produits, Territoires - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: Recent studies reported that the age of primary school enrolment is a major driver of educational achievement and adult income, but its impacts on childhood health and nutrition remain largely unknown, particularly in developing countries where childhood stunting and overweight coexist. In Brazil, children are supposed to enrol in primary school the year they turn 6. Using a database of middle school students in Brazil based on a 2015 survey, I implemented an instrumental variables strategy using quasi-exogenous variations in the students' birthdates to isolate the impact of late primary school enrolment (i.e., older than 6 when enrolled) on height-forage and body mass-forage indicators. Overall, late enrolment has protective effects against hazardous weight gain (− 0.14 z-score unit) but significantly increases the risk of moderate stunting (by 1.5% points). Heterogeneity in family backgrounds may explain these results. Indeed, delayed school enrolment is particularly detrimental for the nutritional status of students from underprivileged settings. In terms of public policy, rather than changing school starting age, this study highlights the importance of focusing on pathways to fight both stunting and overweight conditions in Brazilian children.
    Date: 2022–01–01
  24. By: Komeda, Kenji (University of Warwick)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the effect of air pollution, water pollution and water scarcity on internal migration in India using gravity model with 2SLS estimation. It contributes to the literature by first incorporating nationwide migrants and those three environmental factors into the analysis. The migration data is drawn from the Indian Census 2001 and 2011 and provides us with state-district pair-wise migration flows for certain time periods. With a wide range of data sources including Indian government platforms and satellite data, this study compiles a rich and comprehensive dataset. We find that the increase in air pollutant (PM2.5) at origin pushes out migrants, with larger influence on male than female. This paper also discovers, with more robust evidence, that the increase in groundwater level, a proxy for water scarcity level, at origin leads to less out-migrants and increase in groundwater at destination pulls more in-migrants for both genders. However, consistent evidence on water pollutants was not found.
    Keywords: Internal Migration ; Pollution ; Water Scarcity ; Gender Inequality ; Gravity Model JEL Classification: J16 ; J61 ; O15 ; Q25 ; Q53
    Date: 2021
  25. By: Valentine Jacobs (Université de Mons (Soci&ter) and Université libre de Bruxelles (CEBRIG and DULBEA)); François Rycx (Université libre de Bruxelles (CEBRIG and DULBEA), GLO, IRES, IZA, Soci&ter); Mélanie Volral (Université de Mons (Soci&ter) and DULBEA)
    Abstract: We provide first evidence of the impact of over-education, among natives and immigrants, on firmlevel productivity and wages. We use Belgian linked panel data and rely on the methodology from Hellerstein et al. (1999) to estimate ORU (over-, required, and under-education) equations aggregated at the firm level. Our results show that the over-education wage premium is higher for natives than for immigrants. However, since the differential in productivity gains associated with over-education between natives and immigrants outweighs the corresponding wage premium differential, we conclude – based on OLS and dynamic GMM-SYS estimates – that over-educated native workers are in fact underpaid to a greater extent than their over-educated immigrant counterparts. This conclusion is refined by sensitivity analyses, when testing the role of immigrants’ background (e.g. region of birth, immigrant generation, age at arrival in the host country, tenure).
    Keywords: Immigrants, over-education, productivity, wages, linked panel data, Belgium
    JEL: J24 J71
    Date: 2022–02–07
  26. By: Michael A. Clemens (Michael A. Clemens)
    Abstract: The past several decades have witnessed a rebirth of global labor mobility. Workers have begun to move between countries at rates not seen since before World War One. During the same period, economists’ study of international migration has been framed by a particular textbook model of location choice. This paper reviews the evidence on the economic causes and effects of global migration during the past half century. That evidence falsifies most of the core predictions of the old model. The economics of migration will regain vitality and relevance by discarding and replacing its outworn paradigm.
    Keywords: immigration, emigration, globalization, labor, demographic, development, wages, employment, model, causes, effects, mobility, long run
    JEL: F22 J61 O15
    Date: 2022–01
  27. By: Nikita Melnikov (Princeton University); Carlos Schmidt-Padilla (University of California, Berkeley); María Micaela Sviatschi (Princeton University)
    Abstract: We study how two of the world’s largest gangs—MS-13 and 18th Street—affect economic development in El Salvador. We exploit the fact that the emergence of these gangs was the consequence of an exogenous shift in American immigration policy that led to the deportation of gang leaders from the United States to El Salvador. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design, we find that individuals living under gang control have significantly less education, material wellbeing, and income than individuals living only 50 meters away but outside of gang territory. None of these discontinuities existed before the emergence of the gangs. The results are confirmed by a difference-in-differences analysis: after the gangs’ arrival, locations with gang activity started experiencing lower growth in nighttime light density compared to areas without gang presence. A key mechanism behind the results is that to maintain territorial control, gangs restrict individuals’ freedom of movement, affecting their labor market options. Residents of gang territory are also more likely to drop out of school. The results are not determined by selective migration from gang locations, differential exposure to extortion and violence, or differences in public goods provision.
    Keywords: El Salvador, Gangs, Economic Development
    JEL: R11 O12
    Date: 2021–05
  28. By: Roy-Chowdhury, V.
    Abstract: Motivated beliefs theory suggests the absorption of information may be biased, especially when it bears consequences for the ego. This paper finds empirical support for that hypothesis in the field, using longitudinal data on teenagers’ memories of mathematics report card grades and administrative data on actual grades. Students: i) make more errors in recalling lower grades; ii) update their academic self-confidence in association with recalled grades rather than actual grades; and iii) have more flattering memories of grades when the survey was administered with a longer delay. The first two results bolster recent research in demonstrating that patterns of motivated recall are robust to within-individual estimation. The last result extends the field literature in showing that a large part of the mechanism for motivated information absorption is memory loss over time. A structural model is used to represent memories as the outcome of a subconscious choice problem, disentangling competing motives to enhance self-confidence and respect reality. The estimated model indicates that the costs of memory distortions decrease as time passes after information transmission, and students with low self-confidence had a greatly diminished preference for inflating self-confidence via memory distortions.
    Keywords: motivated beliefs, education, ability, recall, selective memory
    JEL: D91 I21 J83
    Date: 2022–02–21
  29. By: Chang, Simon (University of Western Australia); Kan, Kamhon (Academia Sinica)
    Abstract: For decades, the debate on using DDT to control malaria has focused on the balance between immediate public health gains and ecological costs, ignoring DDT's long-term harmful effects on humans. Using data from the large-scale indoor residual spraying of DDT that took place in Taiwan in the 1950s, we estimate the long-term effects of DDT exposure in early childhood on education and employment in adulthood. Our identification hinges on the unexpected extension of DDT spraying even after malaria had already been largely brought under control. Our finding shows that DDT exposure in early childhood is associated with less education and worse employment in adulthood. However, the dose-response curves are non-linear.
    Keywords: DDT, endocrine-disrupting chemicals, malaria, human capital, Taiwan
    JEL: I1 Q5
    Date: 2022–02
  30. By: Olof Åslund (Olof Åslund); Olof Rosenqvist (Olof Rosenqvist)
    Abstract: We study the impact of asylum waiting, exploiting a rapid increase in processing times for asylum seekers to Sweden. Longer waiting slows down integration. Accumulated earnings during the first four years after application are 2.3 percent lower per added month of waiting. The impact is due to delay rather than negative effects of waiting per se. There is no evidence of detrimental effects on psychiatric or other forms of health. From the date of asylum, those who have waited longer perform better in the labor market and are more likely to start advanced language training and labor market programs.
    Keywords: Asylum waiting, labor market, health
    JEL: F22 J15 J68
    Date: 2022–02
  31. By: Bleeker, Amelia; Crowder, Ryan
    Abstract: This study examines how ICTs have supported equitable development of online distance learning for students in primary, secondary, and tertiary education systems across the Caribbean. By presenting data obtained through interviews with government officials and other key stakeholders in five countries and territories - Barbados, the British Virgin Islands, Guyana, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago – the study highlights learning continuity challenges and successful adaptations specific to the subregion during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study identifies best practices and recommendations to integrate ICTs in education systems during the pandemic and to ‘build back better’ national education systems towards greater efficacy and inclusivity across student populations.
    Date: 2022–02–10
  32. By: Siyan Liu; Jean-Pierre Aubry
    Abstract: Whether public employees are over- or under-paid relative to their private sector counterparts is a source of lively debate. Much of the research on the relative compensation of public and private workers has focused on teachers – the largest segment of the public workforce. Moreover, the issue of teacher compensation has gained currency since the Great Recession, as states and school districts have frequently faced tough budget decisions to cut benefits or halt pay raises. Teacher compensation has important implications for hiring and retaining high-quality teachers and, consequently, for student academic performance. This brief highlights the range of conclusions by researchers who have assessed teacher compensation and attempts to inform the debate through a comprehensive analysis of compensation. The discussion proceeds as follows. The first section explains the difficulties associated with assessing public teacher compensation. The second section highlights the range of conclusions by researchers to date. The third section attempts to shed new light on this topic by more accurately measuring the cost of retirement benefits, carefully accounting for health and retirement plan coverage, and including all other benefits such as Social Security, supplemental pay, and paid leave. The fourth section briefly discusses the implications of teacher compensation on student outcomes. The final section concludes that public teachers earn roughly the same as similar private sector workers but this equality may turn to a deficit over time as new teachers receive lower retirement benefits.
    Date: 2021–10

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