nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2022‒03‒07
fifty-six papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Agglomeration effects and housing market dynamics By Nygaard, Christian; Parkinson, Sharon; reynolds, margaret
  2. Race and the Mismeasure of School Quality By Joshua Angrist; Peter Hull; Parag A. Pathak; Christopher R. Walters
  3. Entangled footprints: Understanding urban neighbourhoods by measuring distance, diversity, and direction of flows in Singapore By Chen, Qingqing; Chuang, I-Ting; Poorthuis, Ate
  4. Spatial Variability of the ‘Airbnb Effect’: A Spatially Explicit Analysis of Airbnb's impact on Housing Prices in Sydney By Thackway, William; Ng, Matthew Kok Ming; Lee, Chyi Lin; Shi, Vivien; Pettit, Christopher
  5. Tabulated HOLC Area Description Sheet Data By Markley, Scott
  6. Urban Mobility and the Experienced Isolation of Students and Adults By Cody Cook; Lindsey Currier; Edward L. Glaeser
  7. Population growth and mobility in Australia: implications for housing and urban development policies By James, Amity; Rowley, Steven; Davies, Amanda; ViforJ, Rachel Ong; Singh, Ranjodh
  8. Teacher Labor Market Equilibrium and Student Achievement By Michael D. Bates; Michael Dinerstein; Andrew C. Johnston; Isaac Sorkin
  9. Socioeconomic Differences in the Long-Term Effects of Teacher Absence on Student Outcomes By Borgen, Nicolai T.; Markussen, Simen; Raaum, Oddbjørn
  10. Developing urban biking typologies: quantifying the complex interactions of bicycle ridership, bicycle network and built environment characteristics By Beck, Ben; Winters, Meghan; Nelson, Trisalyn; Pettit, Christopher; Saberi, Meead; Thompson, Jason; Seneviratne, Sachith; Nice, Kerry A; Zarpelon-Leao, Simone; Stevenson, Mark
  11. The equity implications of TOD in Curitiba By Turbay, André L. B.; Pereira, Rafael H. M.; Firmino, Rodrigo
  12. Co-living (as a way of life): The Urbanism of the New Urban Crisis in Los Angeles and Beyond By Sternberg, Jeff
  13. A Bridge to Graduation: Post-secondary Effects of an Alternative Pathway for Students Who Fail High School Exit Exams By Lincove, Jane Arnold; Mata, Catherine; Cortes, Kalena E.
  14. Sharing Behavior in Ride-hailing Trips: A Machine Learning Inference Approach By Morteza Taiebat; Elham Amini; Ming Xu
  15. Digital Transformations in Planning: An Australian Context By Ng, Matthew Kok Ming; Pettit, Christopher
  16. Change or stability in educational inequalities? Educational mobility and school effects in the context of a major urban policy By Custers, Gijs; Das, Marjolijn; Engbersen, Godfried
  17. HouseMate: A proposed national institution to build new homes and sell them cheap to any citizen who does not own a home By Murray, Cameron
  18. Future-proofing adult learning systems in cities and regions: A policy manual for local governments By OECD
  19. Wheels of Change: Transforming Girls' Lives with Bicycles By Fiala, Nathan; Garcia-Hernandez, Ana; Narula, Kritika; Prakash, Nishith
  20. Origins and consequences of long ties in social networks By Jahani, Eaman; Fraiberger, Samuel P.; Bailey, Michael; Eckles, Dean
  21. Revisiting the Urban Question in the Age of the New Urban Crisis: The (Re)Production of the Regime of Flexible Accumulation By Sternberg, Jeff
  22. Improved Analysis Methodologies and Strategies for Complete Street By Fournier, Nicholas; Huang, Amy; Skabardonis, Alexander
  23. Inter-municipal Cooperation and the provision of local public goods: Economies of scale, fiscal competition or "zoo" effect? By Sonia Paty; Morgan Ubeda
  24. Is the grass really greener? Migrants' improvements in local labor market conditions and financial health By Stephan Whitaker
  25. Is Marriage for White People? Incarceration, Unemployment, and the Racial Marriage Divide By Caucutt, E. M.; Guner, N.; Rauh, C.
  26. Towards an Australian social housing best practice asset management framework By Sharam, Andrea; McNelis, Sean; Cho, Hyunbum; Logan, Callum; Burke, Terry; Rossini, Peter
  27. Human-Network Regions as Effective Geographic Units for Disease Mitigation By Andris, Clio; Koylu, Caglar; Porter, Mason A.
  28. A 'Ghetto' of One's Own: Communal Violence, Residential Segregation and Group Education Outcomes in India By Kalra, Aarushi
  29. Cultural and public services as factors of city resilience ? Evidence from big plant closures and downsizing By Kristian Behrens; Manassé Drabo; Florian Mayneris
  30. Building a predictive machine learning model of gentrification in Sydney By Thackway, William; Ng, Matthew Kok Ming; Lee, Chyi Lin; Pettit, Christopher
  31. School Closures and Effective In-Person Learning during COVID-19: When, Where, and for Whom By André Kurmann; Ãtienne Lalé
  32. Road to Division: Ethnic Favouritism in the Provision of Road Infrastructure in Ethiopia By Elena Perra
  33. Impacts of new and emerging assistive technologies for ageing and disabled housing By Bridge, Catherine; Zmudzki, Fredrick; Huang, Tracy; Owen, Ceridwen; Faulkner, Debbie
  34. No evidence for positive effects of strict tracking and cognitive homogenization on student performance: A critical reanalysis of Esser and Seuring (2020) By Heisig, Jan Paul; Matthewes, Sönke Hendrik
  35. Dynamic Spatial General Equilibrium By Benny Kleinman; Ernest Liu; Stephen J. Redding
  36. Schools, Job Flexibility, and Married Women's Labor Supply: Evidence From the COVID-19 Pandemic By Benjamin Hansen; Joseph J. Sabia; Jessamyn Schaller
  37. The Road of Federal Infrastructure Spending Passes Through the States By Sylvain Leduc; Daniel J. Wilson
  38. Conditional Cash Transfers and the Learning Crisis : Evidence from Tayssir Scale-up in Morocco By Jules Gazeaud; Claire Ricard
  39. Who Gives a Dam? Capitalization of Flood Protection in Fukuoka, Japan By David Wolf; Kenji Takeuchi
  40. State-building on the Margin: An Urban Experiment in Medellín By Blattman, Christopher; Duncan, Gustavo; Lessing, Benjamin; Tobon, Santiago
  41. A Scoping Review on the Multiplicity of Scale in Spatial Analysis By Oshan, Taylor M.; Wolf, Levi John; Sachdeva, Mehak; Bardin, Sarah; Fotheringham, Alexander Stewart
  42. The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Ridesourcing Services Differed Between Small Towns and Large Cities By Nael Alsaleh; Bilal Farooq
  43. Familiar Faces, Worn Out Places: The Effect of Personal and Place Prosperity On Well-Being By Sandher, Jeevun
  44. Immigration, Wages and Employment under Informal Labor Markets By Delgado-Prieto, Lukas
  45. Modelling the learning impacts of educational disruptions in the short and long run By Monroy-Gómez-Franco, Luis Angel
  46. A Place to Go: How Neighborhood Organizations Structure the Lives of the Urban Poor and Negotiate Social Policy By Custers, Gijs; Engbersen, Godfried
  47. Portfolio Choice with Indivisible and Illiquid Housing Assets: The Case of Spain By Sergio Mayordomo; Mar\'ia Rodriguez-Moreno; Juan Ignacio Pe\~na
  48. Splitting up Dhaka city: rationales, challenges and prospects as a sustainable city By Md Murad; Md. Mahmudul Alam; Shawon Shahriar
  49. Estimating the population at-risk of homelessness in small areas By Batterham, Deb; Nygaard, Christian; reynolds, margaret; De Vries, Jacqueline
  50. A framework for inserting visually-supported inferences into geographical analysis workflow: application to road safety research By Beecham, Roger; Lovelace, Robin
  51. The Early Origins of Judicial Stringency in Bail Decisions: Evidence from Early-Childhood Exposure to Hindu-Muslim Riots in India By Nitin Kumar Bharti; Sutanuka Roy
  52. The Impact of Connectivity on the Production and Diffusion of Knowledge By Gustavo Manso; Farzad Pourbabaee
  53. Methodology Framework to Assess Regional Development Plans: A European Perspective Approach By Dimitriou, Dimitrios J.; Sartzetaki, Maria F.; Dadinidou, Smaro
  54. Labor market conditions and college graduation By Lucas Finamor
  55. Parental Religiosity and Missing School-Girls in Turkey By Melike Kökkizil
  56. The fiscal and welfare effects of policy responses to the Covid-19 school closures By Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln; Dirk Krueger; André Kurmann; Ãtienne Lalé; Irina Popova; Alexander Ludwig

  1. By: Nygaard, Christian; Parkinson, Sharon; reynolds, margaret
    Abstract: This research quantifies productivity-related agglomeration benefits arising from the concentration of employment in Australia. While agglomeration provides a policy rationale for densifying cities and concentrating employment, it also leads to higher house prices, which reduce entry and ongoing affordability, greater pollution and other wellbeing detriments such as crime, crowding and noise.
    Date: 2021–10–06
  2. By: Joshua Angrist; Peter Hull; Parag A. Pathak; Christopher R. Walters
    Abstract: In large urban districts, schools enrolling more white students tend to have higher school performance ratings. We use an instrumental variables strategy leveraging centralized school assignment to identify the drivers of the correlation between racial make-up and ratings. Estimates from Denver and New York City suggest the relationship between widely-reported school performance ratings and white enrollment shares reflects selection bias rather than causal school value-added. In fact, value-added in these two cities is essentially unrelated to white enrollment shares. A simple regression adjustment is shown to yield school ratings that are uncorrelated with race, while predicting causal value-added as well or better than the corresponding unadjusted measures.
    JEL: I21 I24 I26 I28
    Date: 2021–12
  3. By: Chen, Qingqing; Chuang, I-Ting; Poorthuis, Ate
    Abstract: Traditional approaches to human mobility analysis in Geography often rely on census or survey data that is resource-intensive to collect and often has a limited spatio-temporal scope. The advent of new technologies (e.g. geosocial media platforms) provides opportunities to overcome these limitations and, if properly leveraged, can yield more granular insights about human mobility. In this paper, we use an anonymized Twitter dataset collected in Singapore from 2012 to 2016 to investigate this potential to help understand the footprints of urban neighbourhoods from both a spatial and a relational perspective. We construct home-to-destination networks of individual users based on their inferred home locations. In aggregated form, these networks allow us to analyze three specific mobility indicators at the neighbourhood level, namely the distance, diversity, and direction of urban interactions. By mapping these three indicators of the spatial footprint of each neighbourhood, we can capture the nuances in the position of individual neighbourhoods within the larger urban network. An exploratory spatial regression reveals that socio-economic characteristics (e.g. share of rental housing) and the built environment (i.e. land use) only partially explain these three indicators and a residual analysis points to the need to explicitly include each neighbourhood's position within the transportation network in future work.
    Date: 2021–08–25
  4. By: Thackway, William; Ng, Matthew Kok Ming (University of New South Wales); Lee, Chyi Lin; Shi, Vivien; Pettit, Christopher
    Abstract: Over the last decade, the emergence and significant growth of home sharing platforms such as Airbnb has coincided with rising housing unaffordability in many global cities. It is in this context that we look to empirically assess the impact of Airbnb on housing prices in Sydney - one of the least affordable cities in the world. Employing a hedonic property valuation model, our results indicate that Airbnb’s overall effect is positive. A 1% increase in Airbnb density is associated with approximately a 2% increase in property sales price. However, recognising that Airbnb’s effect is geographically uneven and given the fragmented nature of Sydney’s housing market, we also employ a GWR to account for the spatial variation in Airbnb activity. The findings confirm that Airbnb’s influence on housing prices is varied across the city. Sydney’s northern beaches and parts of western Sydney experience a statistically significant value uplift attributable to Airbnb activity. However, traditional tourist locations focused around Sydney’s CBD and the eastern suburbs experience insignificant or negative property price impacts. The results highlight the need for policymakers to consider local Airbnb and housing market contexts when deciding the appropriate level and design of Airbnb regulation.
    Date: 2021–12–13
  5. By: Markley, Scott (University of Georgia)
    Abstract: In the late 1930s, an agency of the United States government called the “Home Owners’ Loan Corporation” (HOLC) graded thousands of urban neighborhoods on the perceived risk they posed to mortgage lenders and property investors. To make these determinations, HOLC field agents collected vast amounts of socioeconomic, demographic, and housing data about these places and presented their findings in an impressive set of maps. While these “redlining” maps have received considerable academic and media attention, the data used to assign risk grades—available for most cities in their “area description” sheets—remain virtually unusable. Correcting this issue, I convert eight of the most consequential variables from 129 cities into an accessible and analyzable tabular format. These include the Black population percentage, “foreign-born” population percentage and group, family income, occupation class, average building age, home repair status, and mortgage availability. This data product will allow researchers to gain a more complete picture of the HOLC’s City Survey program, and it will provide a valuable new source of historical socio-demographic data at the neighborhood level.
    Date: 2021–09–24
  6. By: Cody Cook; Lindsey Currier; Edward L. Glaeser
    Abstract: Do urban children live more segregated lives than urban adults? Using cellphone location data and following the ‘experienced isolation’ methodology of Athey et al. (2021), we compare the isolation of students over the age of 16—who we identify based on their time spent at a high school—and adults. We find that students in cities experience significantly less integration in their day-to-day lives than adults. The average student experiences 27% more isolation outside of the home than the average adult. Even when comparing students and adults living in the same neighborhood, exposure to devices associated with a different race is 20% lower for students. Looking at more broad measures of urban mobility, we find that students spend more time at home, more time closer to home when they do leave the house, and less time at school than adults spend at work. Finally, we find correlational evidence that neighborhoods with more geographic mobility today also had more intergenerational income mobility in the past. We hope future work will more rigorously test the hypothesis that different geographic mobility patterns for children and adults can explain why urban density appears to boost adult wages but reduce intergenerational income mobility.
    JEL: C55 I30 J13 R30
    Date: 2022–01
  7. By: James, Amity; Rowley, Steven; Davies, Amanda; ViforJ, Rachel Ong; Singh, Ranjodh
    Abstract: This research tracks Australia’s population growth over the period 2006–16 to examine how actual growth differed from projected growth. It also examined key drivers of population mobility in Australia to inform future urban development policy responses to demands on infrastructure and housing.
    Date: 2021–10–06
  8. By: Michael D. Bates; Michael Dinerstein; Andrew C. Johnston; Isaac Sorkin
    Abstract: We study whether reallocating existing teachers across schools within a district can increase student achievement, and what policies would help achieve these gains. Using a model of multi-dimensional value-added, we find meaningful achievement gains from reallocating teachers within a district. Using an estimated equilibrium model of the teacher labor market, we find that achieving most of these gains requires directly affecting teachers' preferences over schools. In contrast, directly affecting principals' selection of teachers can lower student achievement. Our analysis highlights the importance of equilibrium and second-best reasoning in analyzing teacher labor market policies.
    JEL: I28 J08 J45
    Date: 2022–02
  9. By: Borgen, Nicolai T.; Markussen, Simen; Raaum, Oddbjørn
    Abstract: While the scarce evidence on teacher absence identifies effects on student short-term test scores, this article studies potential effects on long-term educational attainment. We use population-wide Norwegian register data to study the effects of certified teacher absence during lower secondary school (grades 8-10) on non-completion of upper secondary education by age 21 as well as academic achievement in 10th grade. In a school fixed effects model, we find that an increase in teacher absence of 5 percentage points reduces students' examination grades by 2.3% of a standard deviation and increases the risk of dropout by 0.6 percentage points. While exposure to teacher absence is unrelated to family background, particularly large effects for low SES students drive the overall impact of teacher absence. Teacher absence does not affect the dropout of high SES students. The long-term effects on dropout are partly mediated by relatively large effects of teacher absence on the short-term academic achievements of low SES students at the bottom of the grade distribution. Overall, our findings indicate that reductions in instructional quality increase social inequality in long-term educational outcomes.
    Date: 2021–10–29
  10. By: Beck, Ben; Winters, Meghan; Nelson, Trisalyn; Pettit, Christopher; Saberi, Meead; Thompson, Jason; Seneviratne, Sachith; Nice, Kerry A; Zarpelon-Leao, Simone; Stevenson, Mark
    Abstract: Background: Extensive research has been conducted exploring associations of built environment characteristics and biking. However, these approaches have often lacked the ability to understanding the interactions of built environment, population and bicycle ridership. To overcome these limitations, this study aimed to develop novel urban biking typologies using unsupervised machine learning methods. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of travel surveys, bicycle infrastructure and population and land use characteristics in the Greater Melbourne region, Australia. To develop the urban biking typology, we used a k-medoids clustering method. Results: Analyses revealed 5 clusters. We highlight areas with high bicycle network density and a high proportion of trips made by bike (Cluster 1; reflecting 12% of the population of Greater Melbourne, but 57% of all bike trips) and areas with high off-road and on-road bicycle network length, but a low proportion of trips made by bike (Cluster 4, reflecting 23% of the population of Greater Melbourne and 13% of all bike trips). Conclusion: Our novel approach to developing an urban biking typology enabled the exploration of the interaction of bicycle ridership, bicycle network, population and land use characteristics. Such approaches are important in advancing our understanding of bicycling behaviour, but further research is required to understand the generalisability of these findings to other settings.
    Date: 2021–11–25
  11. By: Turbay, André L. B.; Pereira, Rafael H. M.; Firmino, Rodrigo
    Abstract: In this paper we analyze how socio-spatial inequalities have been shaped by transport and land-use planning in Curitiba (Brazil), a city internationally recognized for its Transit Oriented Development (TOD) planning based on Bus Rapid Transit (BRT). We examine how the spatial organization of the BRT system is associated with the distribution of population densities, socioeconomic groups, and real-estate values and its implications in terms of inequalities of access to employment and health services. The results show that Curitiba's TOD has had limited influence on population densities, but has shaped the concentration of high-income classes and premium real-estate along its main BRT corridors. These effects contribute to the peripheralization of low-income communities with limited accessibility benefits from the transit system. Our findings suggest that Curitiba’s success story should be seen as a cautionary tale about the consequences of TOD planning, which perpetuate the spatial concentration of resources and reinforce inequalities of access to opportunities.
    Date: 2022–01–04
  12. By: Sternberg, Jeff (University of Texas at Austin)
    Abstract: The 21st century global city is in the midst of a new urban crisis: while it holds an increasing monopoly on employment opportunities, it has become harder to access. In this article, I argue that young urban aspirants are still accessing the global city in crisis through the practice of co-living. Co-living can be understood as an emergent collection of residential commoning practices employed by in-bound urbanites to access in-demand parts of the city and attain employment, housing and community. Through a relational ethnographic case study of the PodShare co-living space in the global city of Los Angeles, I argue that co-living is as an urbanism arising to stabilize the new urban crisis on both the level of the individual and the city, guiding individuals to grin at their condition and be increasingly mobile between multiple global cities in an attempt to maximize their chances of securing longer-term residency.
    Date: 2021–12–16
  13. By: Lincove, Jane Arnold (University of Maryland, Baltimore County); Mata, Catherine (University of Maryland); Cortes, Kalena E. (Texas A&M University)
    Abstract: High school exit exams are meant to standardize the quality of public high schools and to ensure that students graduate with a set of basic skills and knowledge. Evidence suggests that a common perverse effect of exit exams is an increase in dropout for students who have difficulty passing tests, with a larger effect on minority students. To mitigate this, some states offer alternative, non-tested pathways to graduation for students who have failed their exit exams. This study investigates the post-secondary effects of an alternative high school graduation program. Among students who initially fail an exit exam, those who eventually graduate through an alternative project-based pathway have lower college enrollment, but similar employment outcomes to students who graduate by retaking and passing their exit exams. Compared to similar students who fail to complete high school, those students who take the alternative pathway have better post-secondary outcomes in both education and employment.
    Keywords: high school exit exams, high school graduation, post-secondary education, labor market outcomes, employment, earnings
    JEL: I21 I24 J18
    Date: 2022–02
  14. By: Morteza Taiebat; Elham Amini; Ming Xu
    Abstract: Ride-hailing is rapidly changing urban and personal transportation. Ride sharing or pooling is important to mitigate negative externalities of ride-hailing such as increased congestion and environmental impacts. However, there lacks empirical evidence on what affect trip-level sharing behavior in ride-hailing. Using a novel dataset from all ride-hailing trips in Chicago in 2019, we show that the willingness of riders to request a shared ride has monotonically decreased from 27.0% to 12.8% throughout the year, while the trip volume and mileage have remained statistically unchanged. We find that the decline in sharing preference is due to an increased per-mile costs of shared trips and shifting shorter trips to solo. Using ensemble machine learning models, we find that the travel impedance variables (trip cost, distance, and duration) collectively contribute to 95% and 91% of the predictive power in determining whether a trip is requested to share and whether it is successfully shared, respectively. Spatial and temporal attributes, sociodemographic, built environment, and transit supply variables do not entail predictive power at the trip level in presence of these travel impedance variables. This implies that pricing signals are most effective to encourage riders to share their rides. Our findings shed light on sharing behavior in ride-hailing trips and can help devise strategies that increase shared ride-hailing, especially as the demand recovers from pandemic.
    Date: 2022–01
  15. By: Ng, Matthew Kok Ming (University of New South Wales); Pettit, Christopher
    Abstract: Australia is currently undergoing sweeping changes in transforming and digitizing its planning and development sectors. However, numerous challenges still exist in consolidating and making accessible essential data in the country to effect evidence-based development policy-making. This has been argued to have tangible consequences in formulating solutions to urban problems, such as housing delivery, and driving new urban innovations that are data-focused. In this chapter, we discuss a new urban data governance model in the context of the development of a novel single housing data and analytics platform, which has been formulated based on Australia’s current issues on data disparity, ownership, and interoperability. This platform, the Australian Housing Data Analytics Platform, seeks provide researchers with an integrated data repository and transparent analytical capabilities that hopes to drive collaboration, public participation, and data democratization across the country. In line with PlanTech principles developed through the Australian Planning Institute, this chapter describes how data in Australia can be made as a public good and integral commodity for policy-makers for the better planning for our cities.
    Date: 2021–11–27
  16. By: Custers, Gijs; Das, Marjolijn; Engbersen, Godfried
    Abstract: The National Program Rotterdam South is a large-scale ambitious Dutch urban policy that aims to increase educational attainment amongst disadvantaged children in one of the poorest areas in the Netherlands. This study investigates to what extent inequality in educational attainment based on parental education has changed during the first period of this program. We further examine to what extent area and school characteristics affect educational attainment. Register data on the individual, school and area level were employed to study these issues. We find that the effect of parental education on secondary school attainment has been stable since the start of the program, indicating inequality has not decreased in the context of the program. Furthermore, several school characteristics, including socioeconomic status and retention rate, were relevant in explaining differences in educational attainment. We discuss how our findings relate to the allocation of policy means.
    Date: 2021–11–26
  17. By: Murray, Cameron (The University of Sydney)
    Abstract: • In a world of unequal wealth and incomes, market provision of housing usually fails to provide quality housing options to young and low-income households. Like other necessary goods characterised by monopoly, like healthcare and pharmaceuticals, access to them via pricing creates inherent social challenges. • Historically, the social challenge of unequal access to housing was solved with public intervention to offer non-market housing at lower regulated price to first time buyers and renters. • The proposed HouseMate program is a 21st century housing supplier, copying the best features of Singapore’s successful housing system. • It will sell new homes to eligible Australian citizens at construction cost price, offering them a discounted mortgage, with purchasers able to pay deposit and repayments using their compulsory super contributions. • This new housing alternative will operate in parallel with the private purchase and rental markets. HouseMate owners will have all the rights and obligations of private homeowners, but with a mandatory occupancy period. • The design of HouseMate addresses all the key housing policy challenges in Australia, including o high deposit hurdles for first homebuyers, o uncertainty and high rents for low-income households, o younger households tying up income in super when homeownership is a higher priority for retirement, o price effects and inefficiencies of demand-only subsidy programs to homebuyers (like FHB grants) and renters (NRAS payments), and o limited innovation of design and construction in private housing markets. • If secure, low-cost housing via homeownership is a policy priority, there is no reason not to try the HouseMate program.
    Date: 2022–01–09
  18. By: OECD
    Abstract: In the coming years, labour markets will face significant challenges. In this context, re- and upskilling of adults is an urgent priority for all at national, regional and local levels. To turn challenges into opportunities and to ensure that the supply of local skills matches constantly changing skills demands, there is a need to create strong adult learning systems for a more resilient and empowered society and productive economy. To support local governments in their efforts to future-proof adult learning systems, this policy manual presents a range of policy options and concrete actions that can inspire and guide work at the local level. It is designed for both policy makers and practitioners at the local and regional level, but also for national policy makers to support their efforts in supporting the diversity of local needs.
    Keywords: adult education, adult learning, adult skills, adult training, Automation, Digitalisation, Job polarisation, local government, regional government, Vocational education and training
    JEL: O O15 O3 O1
    Date: 2022–02–16
  19. By: Fiala, Nathan (University of Connecticut); Garcia-Hernandez, Ana (Universidad del Rosario); Narula, Kritika (Analysis Group); Prakash, Nishith (University of Connecticut)
    Abstract: Reducing the gender gap in education is a primary goal for many countries. Two major challenges for many girls are the distance to school and their safety when commuting to school. In Zambia, we studied the impact of providing a bicycle to a school-going girl who lives more than 3 km from the school. We randomized whether a girl received a bicycle with a small cost to her family to cover replacement parts, a bicycle where these costs are covered by the program, and therefore is zero cost to the family, or a control group. One year after the intervention, we find that the bicycle reduced average commuting time to school by 35%, reduced late arrival by 66%, and decreased absenteeism by 27%. We find continued improvement in girls' attendance and reduction in dropouts two, three, and four years after the intervention. We also find evidence of improved math test scores, girls expressing higher feelings of control over their lives and, for those who received bicycles with a small cost to her family, higher levels of aspirations, self-image, and a desire to delay marriage and pregnancy. Heterogeneity analysis by distance to school shows an inverted U-shape for most of the schooling and empowerment results, suggesting greater impact for girls that live further away from school. These results suggest that empowerment outcomes worked through increased attendance in school.
    Keywords: girls' education, attendance, dropout, grade transition, test scores, bicycles, female aspiration, female empowerment, safety, Zambia
    JEL: H42 I21 I25 J16 O15
    Date: 2022–02
  20. By: Jahani, Eaman; Fraiberger, Samuel P.; Bailey, Michael; Eckles, Dean
    Abstract: Social networks play a predominant role in determining how information spreads between individuals. Previous works suggest that long ties, which connect people who do not share any mutual contact, provide access to valuable information on economic opportunities. However, no population-scale study has determined how long ties relate to economic outcomes and how such ties are formed. Using a novel dataset from Facebook, we reconstruct the network of interactions between users and we uncover a strong relationship between the share of long ties and economic outcomes at the local level in the United States and in Mexico. Administrative units with a higher proportion of long ties have higher incomes, higher economic mobility, lower unemployment rates and higher wealth, even after adjusting for potential confounders of these outcomes. In contrast to the weak tie theory, we find that having stronger long ties is associated with better economic outcomes. Furthermore, we discover that users with a higher proportion of long ties are more likely to have migrated between US states, to have transferred to a different high school, and to have attended college outside of their home state. Taken together, these results suggest that long ties contribute to economic prosperity and highlight the role played by disruptive life events in the formation of these ties.
    Date: 2022–01–08
  21. By: Sternberg, Jeff (University of Texas at Austin)
    Abstract: Scholars have recently remarked upon the emergence of what Richard Florida has termed The New Urban Crisis, a global phenomenon whereby cities are being lumped into winners and losers, with inequality rising in the winner cities where real estate prices are pushing out those who most need access to the opportunities hoarded within. In this article, I argue that the new urban crisis is not a crisis of the city per se but is itself a symptom of greater crises occurring at the level of global capitalism. By revisiting Castells’ The Urban Question, I read the new urban crisis as a product of how the urban social structure fits into the reproduction of capitalism on a global scale, arguing that, under the regime of flexible accumulation, the urban social structure is asked to reproduce two distinct circuits of capital accumulation set loose by the transition to post-industrialism: accumulation via production and accumulation via finance. These distinct circuits of accumulation utilize the elements of urban social structures differentially, often at cross purposes. This produces continued crises in the reproduction of capitalism, as well as continually shifting relations between elements of the urban social structure, producing a plurality of urban forms.
    Date: 2021–12–16
  22. By: Fournier, Nicholas; Huang, Amy; Skabardonis, Alexander
    Abstract: Complete streets movement is a national effort to return to traditional streets in our cities to enhance livability, safely, accommodate all modes of travel, provide travel choices, ease traffic congestion, and promote healthier communities. The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) and several local agencies in the State have developed implementation plans for complete streets. In this project, we developed and tested improved strategies and analysis methodologies for complete streets, taking into consideration the emerging advances in technology on control devices and data availability from multiple sources. The proposed improvements to the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) methodology for bicycle LOS, accounts for protected bicycle lanes, traffic exposure, bicycle delay and pavement quality index. A survey was also used to calibrate the proposed bikeway evaluation models. Signal control strategies for complete streets were developed and tested, including signal optimization for pedestrians, bicycles and Transit Signal Priority (TSP) along major travel corridors in San Francisco.
    Keywords: Engineering
    Date: 2021–12–01
  23. By: Sonia Paty (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENS LSH - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Morgan Ubeda (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Inter-municipal communities are supposed to provide local public services more efficiently by exploiting economies of scale and reducing spillover effects among cooperating municipalities. In a diff-in-diff setting that exploits the staggered adoption of cooperation in France, we explore the impact of inter-municipal cooperation on both local public spending and revenues. We first find a sizable increase in local public spending which was not driven by wage bill expansion. Second, by using the decomposition of spending by function, we show that this increase was driven by urbanism policies. Third, we show that a quarter of this effect can be explained by the transfer of two policies: public transit and garbage collection. Overall, we conclude that scale economies, if existent, were clearly dominated by a "zoo" effect, i.e. the provision of new public services in small and former isolated municipalities.
    Keywords: Inter-municipal cooperation,local public spending Inter-municipal cooperation,local public spending
    Date: 2022–01–24
  24. By: Stephan Whitaker
    Abstract: This paper documents several facts about internal migrants in the US that underlie substantial areas of economic research and policy making, but are rarely directly published. Using a large-sample, 23-year panel, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, I estimate the distribution of changes in local labor market conditions experienced by people who move to a different labor market. Net migration favors local labor markets with lower unemployment and faster job growth, but gross flows toward weaker labor markets are almost as large as the flows toward stronger labor markets. During recessions, net flows temporarily favor weaker labor markets. Migrants frequently choose destinations with similar labor market conditions rather than moving to the markets with the highest growth or lowest unemployment at the time of their move. A hypothesis that personal financial health improves for people moving to tight local labor markets (or deteriorates for migrants to slack labor markets) is only partially supported in the data. Migrants to low-unemployment and high-employment growth regions have higher homeownership rates after they move. However, there are not clear advantages or disadvantages for migrants to strong or weak labor market regions as measured by credit scores, consumption, bankruptcy, or foreclosure.
    Keywords: Internal migration; local labor market conditions; unemployment; employment growth; consumer credit; financial health
    JEL: J61 E24 R11 D14
    Date: 2022–02–22
  25. By: Caucutt, E. M.; Guner, N.; Rauh, C.
    Abstract: The difference in marriage rates between black and white Americans is striking. Wilson (1987) suggests that a skewed sex ratio and higher rates of incarceration and unemployment are responsible for lower marriage rates among the black population. In this paper, we take a dynamic look at the Wilson Hypothesis. Incarceration rates and labor market prospects of black men make them riskier spouses than white men. We develop an equilibrium search model of marriage, divorce, and labor supply in which transitions between employment, unemployment, and prison differ by race, education, and gender. The model also allows for racial differences in how individuals value marriage and divorce. We estimate the model and investigate how much of the racial divide in marriage is due to the Wilson Hypothesis and how much is due to differences in preferences for marriage. We find that the Wilson Hypothesis accounts for more than three quarters of the model's racial-marriage gap. This suggests policies that improve employment opportunities and/or reduce incarceration for black men could shrink the racial-marriage gap.
    Keywords: Marriage, Race, Incarceration, Inequality, Unemployment
    JEL: J12 J J64
    Date: 2021–09–06
  26. By: Sharam, Andrea; McNelis, Sean; Cho, Hyunbum; Logan, Callum; Burke, Terry; Rossini, Peter
    Abstract: This research examines social housing asset management (AM) in Australia and develops a best practice framework that outlines AM processes and criteria for making decisions; is suitable to the unique aspects of social housing; is flexible enough to be used by different types of social housing providers; provides metrics to drive organisational excellence; and provides the basis for national regulation and policymaking.
    Date: 2021–10–13
  27. By: Andris, Clio; Koylu, Caglar; Porter, Mason A.
    Abstract: Susceptibility to infectious diseases such as COVID-19 depends on how they spread, and many studies have captured the decrease in COVID-19 spread due to reduction in travel. However, less is known about practical geographic boundaries for that limit the spread of COVID-19 to adjacent places. To detect such boundaries, we apply community-detection algorithms to large networks of mobility and social-media connections to construct geographic regions that reflect natural human movement and relationships at the county level for the continental United States. We measure COVID-19 cases, case rates, and case-rate variations across adjacent counties and examine how often COVID-19 crosses the boundaries of these functional regions. We find that regions that we construct using GPS-trace networks and especially commuter networks have the smallest rates of COVID-19 case rates along the boundaries, so these regions may reflect natural partitions in COVID-19 transmission. Conversely, regions that we construct from geolocated Facebook friendships and Twitter connections yield the least effective partitions. Our analysis reveals that regions that are derived from movement flows are more appropriate geographic units than states for making policy decisions about opening areas for activity, assessing vulnerability of populations, and allocating resources. Our insights are also relevant for policy decisions and public messaging in future emergency situations.
    Date: 2021–10–16
  28. By: Kalra, Aarushi
    Abstract: How does ethnic violence and subsequent segregation shape children's lives? Using exogenous variation in communal violence due to a Hindu nationalist campaign tour across India, I show that violence displaces Muslims to segregated neighbourhoods. Surprisingly, I find that post-event, Muslim primary education levels are higher in cities that were more susceptible to violence. For cohorts enrolling after the riots, the probability of attaining primary education decreases by 2.3% every 100 kilometres away from the campaign route. I exploit differences in the planned and actual route to show that this is due to residential segregation of communities threatened by violence.
    Date: 2021–10–29
  29. By: Kristian Behrens; Manassé Drabo; Florian Mayneris
    Abstract: We combine census and establishment-level data for 2001–2017 to study the impact of mass layoffs of big manufacturing plants on city-level population and its composition in Canada. We find that manufacturing plant closures and downsizing lead to a decline in subsequent population growth, especially among the young, those of working age, migrants, and the less skilled. There are also sizable negative effects on the local employment in other industries, which can explain why such negative local labor demand shocks affect population dynamics. Public services (health and education) and cultural and recreational amenities are shown to make cities more resilient and help them retain population following negative local labor demand shocks. Nous combinons des données de recensement et des données au niveau des établissements pour la période 2001-2017 afin d'étudier l'impact des licenciements massifs dans les grandes entreprises manufacturières sur la taille et la composition des villes canadiennes. Nous constatons que les fermetures d'usines et les licenciements massifs affectent négativement la croissance démographique ultérieure, en particulier parmi les jeunes, les personnes en âge de travailler, les migrants et les personnes moins qualifiées. Il existe également des effets négatifs importants sur l'emploi local dans d'autres secteurs que l’industrie manufacturière, ce qui peut expliquer pourquoi de tels chocs négatifs de demande de main-d'oeuvre affectent la dynamique démographique. Les services publics (en santé et en éducation) et les aménités culturelles et récréatives rendent les villes plus résilientes et les aident à conserver leur population après des chocs négatifs de demande de main-d'oeuvre.
    Keywords: Socio-demographic change,plant closures,downsizing,manufacturing,city resilience, Changements sociodémographiques,fermetures d'usines,licenciements massifs,industrie manufacturière,résilience des villes
    JEL: J10 R11 R12 R23
    Date: 2021–11–12
  30. By: Thackway, William; Ng, Matthew Kok Ming (University of New South Wales); Lee, Chyi Lin; Pettit, Christopher
    Abstract: In an era of rapid urbanisation and increasing wealth, gentrification is an urban phenomenon impacting many cities around the world. The ability of policymakers and planners to better understand and address gentrification-induced displacement hinges upon proactive intervention strategies. It is in this context that we build a tree-based machine learning (ML) model to predict neighbourhood change in Sydney. Change, in this context, is proxied by the Socioeconomic Index for Advantage and Disadvantage, in addition to census and other ancillary predictors. Our models predict gentrification from 2011-2016 with a balanced accuracy of 74.7%. Additionally, the use of an additive explanation tool enables individual prediction explanations and advanced feature contribution analysis. Using the ML model, we predict future gentrification in Sydney up to 2021. The predictions confirm that gentrification is expanding outwards from the city centre. A spill-over effect is predicted to the south, west and north-west of former gentrifying hotspots. The findings are expected to provide policymakers with a tool to better forecast where likely areas of gentrification will occur. This future insight can then inform suitable policy interventions and responses in planning for more equitable cities outcomes, specifically for vulnerable communities impacted by gentrification and neighbourhood change.
    Date: 2021–12–16
  31. By: André Kurmann; Ãtienne Lalé
    Abstract: We combine cell phone data on foot-traffic to a highly representative sample of almost 70,000 schools in the U.S. with information on school learning modes to estimate a measure of effective in-person learning (EIPL) during the COVID-19 pandemic. We then match the data with various administrative records to document differences in EIPL over time, across regions, and by individual school characteristics. We find three main results. First, while EIPL dropped to below 20% of its pre-pandemic level across all regions of the U.S. during Spring 2020, EIPL varied widely during the 2020-21 school year, ranging from less than 20% in some cities on the West Coast to more than 80% in some cities in the South. Second, a substantial part of this variation is accounted for by observable school characteristics: (i) public schools provided on average less EIPL than private schools; (ii) schools in more affluent and educated localities and schools with a larger share of non-white students provided on average lower EIPL; and (iii) public schools with higher pre-pandemic spending per student, higher district-level Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief (ESSER) funding per student, and larger student enrollment provided on average lower EIPL. Third, the negative association of EIPL with affluence, education and pre-pandemic school spending is driven in large part by systematic regional differences that are correlated with political preferences. In contrast, the negative association of EIPL with a school’s share of non-white students and ESSER funding persists even within counties and controlling for local affluence and education. These patterns are important for our understanding of the factors that led to the large disparities in school closures and the impact of in-person learning loss during the pandemic on future educational attainment, income inequality, and economic growth. Nous apparions des données de mobilité obtenus à partir de téléphones portables à un échantillon représentatif de près de 70 000 écoles aux États-Unis, et combinons ces données avec des informations sur les modes d'apprentissage scolaire pour construire une mesure de l'apprentissage effectivement réalisé en présentiel (EIPL) pendant la pandémie de COVID-19. Nous augmentons ensuite ces données avec plusieurs bases de données administratives afin de documenter les différences d'EIPL dans le temps, selon les régions et en fonction des caractéristiques individuelles des écoles. Nous obtenons trois résultats principaux. Premièrement, alors que l'EIPL a chuté en deçà de 20 % par rapport à son niveau pré-pandémique au printemps 2020 dans toutes les régions des États-Unis, l'EIPL a ensuite fortement varié au cours de l'année scolaire 2020-2021, atteignant plus de 80 % dans certaines villes du sud alors qu’il se maintenait en deçà de 20 % dans certaines villes de la côte ouest. Deuxièmement, une part substantielle de cette variation est expliquée par les caractéristiques observables des écoles : (i) les écoles publiques ont fourni en moyenne moins d'EIPL que les écoles privées ; (ii) les écoles situées dans des localités plus riches et plus instruites et les écoles comptant une plus grande proportion d'élèves non blancs ont fourni en moyenne moins d'EIPL ; et (iii) les écoles publiques ayant des dépenses par élève plus élevées avant la pandémie, ayant reçu un montant d'aide d'urgence aux écoles élémentaires et secondaires (ESSER) par élève plus importante, et les écoles ayant un plus grand nombre d'élèves ont fourni en moyenne moins d'EIPL. Troisièmement, l'association négative de l'EIPL avec la richesse, l'éducation et les dépenses scolaires pré-pandémiques est due en grande partie à des différences régionales systématiques qui sont corrélées aux préférences politiques. En revanche, l'association négative de l'EIPL avec la part d'élèves non blancs d'une école et le financement ESSER persiste au sein même des comtés et en contrôlant la richesse et l'éducation locales. Ces tendances sont importantes pour comprendre les facteurs qui ont conduit aux disparités dans les fermetures d'écoles et pour évaluer l'impact de la perte d'apprentissage en présentiel pendant la pandémie sur le niveau d'éducation futur, les inégalités des revenus et la croissance économique.
    Keywords: COVID-19,School closures and reopenings,Effective in-person learning,Inequality, COVID-19,Fermetures et réouvertures d'écoles,Apprentissage efficace en présentiel,Inégalité
    JEL: E24 I24
    Date: 2021–11–18
  32. By: Elena Perra
    Abstract: Ethnic favouritism has long been considered by scholars as intrinsic in explaining sub-optimal economic growth in African countries. Our case study, Ethiopia, represents an unicum in the African political context, as ethnicity has been institutionalised as the key element of the post-authoritarian state order, yielding a system that has been labelled “ethnic federalism†. This paper aims to analyse whether this particular institutional setting has proven to be a deterrent to logics of ethnic favouritism in the allocation of public goods. In order to do so, the study exploits a national scale road investment project spanning almost twenty years, the Ethiopian Road Sector Development Programme. We seek to assess whether the politically dominant ethnicity, Tigrays, have benefitted disproportionately from the project with respect to other ethnically identified Ethiopian regions. By exploiting a novel dataset containing spatially explicit information on the location of new road constructions and road surface im- provements, we leverage quasi-experimental econometric methods in order to identify a causal effect of coethnicity with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, the dominant component of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, in the reception of new road construction and road improvements. The main contribution of this paper resides in the quantification of the disproportional allocation of road investments. We find that ethnic Tigrays obtain on average 5-7% more roads with respect to other ethnic groups, once pre-treatment characteristics are balanced across treatment and control units. Moreover, the result is consistent when ex- pressed in terms of road improvements, with road speed on Tigray territories increasing by an additional 10 km/h with respect to non-Tigray observations. These results may be considered as evidence of ethnically unbalanced economic growth inside the Ethiopian territory.
    Keywords: Infrastructure, Roads, Ethnic Favouritism, Ethiopia, GIS
    JEL: H54 H77 J15 R42 O15
    Date: 2022
  33. By: Bridge, Catherine; Zmudzki, Fredrick; Huang, Tracy; Owen, Ceridwen; Faulkner, Debbie
    Abstract: This research looks at how smart home assistive technologies (AT) may be best used in both the aged care and disability sectors to reduce the need for support services. It includes an assessment of ease of use, quality-of-life and cost benefit analysis, and contributes to the development of policy options that could facilitate effective adoption of smart home AT in Australia.
    Date: 2021–12–22
  34. By: Heisig, Jan Paul; Matthewes, Sönke Hendrik
    Abstract: In a recent contribution, Esser and Seuring (2020) draw on data from the National Educational Panel Study to attack the widespread view that tracking in lower secondary education exacerbates inequalities in student outcomes without improving average student performance. Exploiting variation in the strictness of tracking across 13 of the 16 German federal states (e.g., whether teacher recommendations are binding), Esser and Seuring claim to demonstrate that stricter tracking after grade 4 results in better performance in grade 7 and that this can be attributed to the greater homogeneity of classrooms under strict tracking. We show these conclusions to be untenable: Esser and Seuring’s measures of classroom composition are highly dubious because the number of observed students is very small for many classrooms. Even when we adopt their classroom composition measures, simple corrections and extensions of their analysis reveal that there is no meaningful evidence for a positive relationship between classroom homogeneity and student achievement—the channel supposed to mediate the alleged positive effect of strict tracking. We go on to show that students from more strictly tracking states perform better already at the start of tracking (grade 5), which casts further doubt on the alleged positive effect of strict tracking on learning progress and leaves selection or anticipation effects as more plausible explanations. On a conceptual level, we emphasize that Esser and Seuring’s analysis is limited to states that implement different forms of early tracking and cannot inform us about the relative performance of comprehensive and tracked system that is the focus of most of the previous literature.
    Date: 2021–10–19
  35. By: Benny Kleinman (Princeton University); Ernest Liu (Princeton University); Stephen J. Redding (Princeton University and CEPR and NBER)
    Abstract: We develop a dynamic spatial model with forward-looking investment and migration. We characterize the existence and uniqueness of the steady-state equilibrium; generalize existing dynamic exact-hat algebra techniques to incorporate investment; and linearize the model to provide an analytical characterization of the economy’s transition path using spectral analysis. We show that U.S. states are closer to steady-state at the end of our sample period in 2015 than during the prior five decades. We !nd that much of the observed decline in the rate of income convergence across US states is explained by gradual adjustment given initial conditions, rather than by shocks to fundamentals, and that both capital and labor dynamics contribute to this gradual adjustment. We show that capital and labor dynamics interact with one another to generate slow and heterogeneous rates of convergence to steady-state.
    Keywords: spatial dynamics, economic geography, trade, migration
    JEL: F14 F15 F50
    Date: 2021–10
  36. By: Benjamin Hansen; Joseph J. Sabia; Jessamyn Schaller
    Abstract: This study explores the effect of school reopenings during the COVID-19 pandemic on married women's labor supply. We proxy for in-person attendance at US K-12 schools using smartphone data from Safegraph and measure female employment, hours, and remote work using the Current Population Survey. Difference-in-differences estimates show that K-12 reopenings are associated with significant increases in employment and hours among married women with school-aged children, with no measurable effects on labor supply in comparison groups. Employment effects of school reopenings are concentrated among mothers of older school-aged children, while remote work may mitigate effects for mothers of younger children.
    JEL: I21 I38 J08 J11 J12 J21 J22 J48
    Date: 2022–01
  37. By: Sylvain Leduc; Daniel J. Wilson
    Abstract: Because federal infrastructure spending largely takes the form of grants to state governments, the macroeconomic impact of such packages depends on the share of federal grants that “passes through” to actual infrastructure spending done by states. A low degree of pass-through would tend to mute the economic impact from federal grants, reflecting a crowd-out effect on state spending. We first revisit Knight’s (2002) influential finding of near-zero pass-through (perfect crowd out) of federal highway grants. That result is found to be specification-sensitive and is reversed completely in a longer sample, with estimates implying dollar-for-dollar pass-through of grants to spending. We then extend the analysis to allow for dynamics. We find a contemporaneous pass-through effect of about 1 and a longer-run cumulative effect of around 1.3. In the parlance of public finance, the flypaper effect is strong.
    Keywords: infrastructure; spending; states; fiscal policy; federal grants
    JEL: H77 H54 E62
    Date: 2022–02–01
  38. By: Jules Gazeaud; Claire Ricard (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)
    Abstract: We use a regression discontinuity design in rural Morocco to study whether the enrollment gains from conditional cash transfer programs translate into learning benefits. Unlike most previous studies, we estimate the effects of a sustained exposure during whole primary school. We find small and seemingly negative effects on test scores at the end-of-primary school exam. Concomitant increases in class size suggest that the program constrained learning by putting additional pressure on existing resources in beneficiary areas. These results are particularly relevant for settings where transfers are geographically targeted with no measures to absorb the extra influx of students.
    Keywords: Learning outcomes,Conditional cash Transfers,Morocco
    Date: 2021–02
  39. By: David Wolf (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University); Kenji Takeuchi (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University)
    Abstract: Large-scale flooding is becoming increasingly common due to prolonged and intensive rainfall caused by climate change. Communities have mitigated this risk by building flood protection, though it is unclear whether residents are aware of these public works or the protection they confer. We provide insight on this matter by examining whether apartment rental prices (2015 – 2019) responded to the completion of the Gokayama Dam in Fukuoka Prefecture, Japan. We find apartments protected by the Gokayama Dam experienced a 1.8% price increase relative to apartments in other floodplains after Typhoon Prapiroon hit western Japan and tested the dam. Renters used the natural disaster as a learning experience to update their perceptions of flood risk as opposed to the completion of the dam, suggesting a possible disconnect between perceptions of flood risk and objective risk. In addition, we find the benefits from flood protection were unevenly distributed with higher premiums observed in first floor units, units closer to rivers, and in areas where floodwaters are expected to exceed two meters, while rental units designed as temporary housing received no premium. Homeowners and commercial renters also benefited from the added flood protection but to an even greater extent than apartment renters. In aggregate, the Gokayama Dam provides $11.3 million in benefits to downstream apartment renters each year which offsets more than one-third the annualized cost of the dam.
    Date: 2022–02
  40. By: Blattman, Christopher (University of Chicago); Duncan, Gustavo; Lessing, Benjamin; Tobon, Santiago
    Abstract: Medellin’s government wanted to raise its efficacy, legitimacy, and control. The city identified 80 neighborhoods with weak state presence and competing armed actors. In half, they increased non-police street presence tenfold for two years, offering social services and dispute resolution. In places where the state was initially weakest, the intervention did not work, mainly because the government struggled to deliver on its promises. Where the state began stronger, the government raised opinions of its services and legitimacy. If there are indeed low marginal returns to investing in capacity in the least-governed areas, this could produce increasing returns to state-building.
    Date: 2022–01–18
  41. By: Oshan, Taylor M.; Wolf, Levi John (University of Bristol); Sachdeva, Mehak; Bardin, Sarah; Fotheringham, Alexander Stewart
    Abstract: Scale is a central concept in the geographical sciences and is an intrinsic property of many spatial systems. It also serves as an essential thread in the fabric of many other physical and social sciences, which has contributed to the use of different terminology for similar manifestations of what we refer to as ‘scale’, leading to a surprising amount of diversity around this fundamental concept and its various ‘multiscale’ extensions. To address this, we review common abstractions about spatial scale and how they are employed in quantitative research. We also explore areas where the conceptualizations of multiple spatial scales can be differentiated. This is achieved by first bridging terminology and concepts, and then conducting a scoping review of the topic. A typology for spatial scale is discussed that can be used to categorize its multifarious meanings and measures. This typology is then used to distinguish what we term ‘process scale,’ from other types of spatial scale and to highlight current trends in uncovering aspects of process scale. We end with suggestions on how to further build knowledge regarding spatial processes through the lens of spatial scale.
    Date: 2022–02–01
  42. By: Nael Alsaleh; Bilal Farooq
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly influenced all modes of transportation. However, it is still unclear how the pandemic affected the demand for ridesourcing services and whether these effects varied between small towns and large cities. We analyzed over 220 million ride requests in the City of Chicago (population: 2.7 million), Illinois, and 52 thousand in the Town of Innisfil (population: 37 thousand), Ontario, to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the ridesourcing demand in the two locations. Overall, the pandemic resulted in fewer trips in areas with higher proportions of seniors and more trips to parks and green spaces. Ridesourcing demand was adversely affected by the stringency index and COVID-19-related variables, and positively affected by vaccination rates. However, compared to Innisfil, ridesourcing services in Chicago experienced higher reductions in demand, were more affected by the number of hospitalizations and deaths, were less impacted by vaccination rates, and had lower recovery rates.
    Date: 2022–01
  43. By: Sandher, Jeevun
    Abstract: Higher rates of income inequality are correlated with lower average well-being across different domains (such as health, financial security, friendship etc.) across nations. It is unclear, however, whether this pattern is driven by income differences between people or if places also play a role. In this paper, I test this by constructing a Se- nian Capability Index of well-being and then testing the relative role of personal and place-based prosperity on its domains using linked individual-area data. I find that while personal income has the strongest link to well-being domains, places also also have a significant, non-uniform, association as well. These effects differ between the labour market and neighbourhood level spatial scales. Local labour market prosperity gives its residents higher potential incomes and is associated with greater financial se- curity and more friends. Moving to a more prosperous labour market also indirectly improves well-being by increasing potential incomes. Neighbourhood prosperity is as- sociated with greater overall well-being, physical security, and a lower probability of death. These results suggest that policies aimed at improving personal and place-based characteristics are needed to create a “good life” for all citizens.
    Date: 2022–01–06
  44. By: Delgado-Prieto, Lukas
    Abstract: This paper studies the labor market impacts of a massive inflow of Venezuelans in Colombia. By comparing areas that received different shares of migrants, I find a negative effect on wages and on local employment for natives. The negative wage effect is driven by a large drop of wages in the informal sector, where migrants are mostly employed, while the negative employment effect is driven by a reduction of employment in the formal sector, where the minimum wage is binding. To explain these results, I develop a model in which firms hire formal and informal workers with different costs. If these workers have a high degree of substitutability, and wages for formal workers are rigid, firms reallocate formal to informal employment as a response to lower informal wages. In settings with informal labor markets migration can therefore lead to asymmetric employment and wage effects across the informal and formal sectors.
    Date: 2021–09–26
  45. By: Monroy-Gómez-Franco, Luis Angel (The City College of New York)
    Abstract: In this paper, I propose a new framework for analysing the short and long-run effects of temporary educational disruptions on the learning progression of children. The framework integrates into a coherent model recent advances in the literature on learning acquisition (Kaffenberger, 2021; Kaffenberger and Pritchett, 2020b, 2021) and the literature on estimating the immediate costs of instructional disruptions (Neidhöfer et al., 2021). The integrated framework includes explicit modelling of continuous parental investments, filling a gap in the literature related to the Potential Pedagogical Function and other explicit models of learning progression and acquisition. In the same way, the model considers the role of economic resources as part of the resources employed by parents to mitigate the effects of a temporary shock in instruction., expanding the notion of attenuation capacity developed by Neidhöfer et al. (2021). Finally, I take this framework to the data to estimate the potential effects of the instructional disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico. The estimates suggest that, for the Mexican cohort affected by the instructional disruption,the potential persistent loss in learning with respect to the counterfactual lies on average between 20% and 90% of the learning acquired during a usual school year, depending on the effectiveness of the remote learning policies implemented during 2020 and 2021.These results already consider the mitigating role of parental investments. Furthermore,my results suggest substantial variation between inhabitants from different regions of the country and inside inhabitants of the same region, being the South of the country the region where the losses are the largest.
    Date: 2021–12–31
  46. By: Custers, Gijs; Engbersen, Godfried
    Abstract: Neighborhood organizations are believed to be important in alleviating the plight of the urban poor. This study examines how different types of neighborhood organizations affect the lives of the urban poor in low-income neighborhoods. Qualitative field work was conducted in a faith-based organization, a professional welfare organization, and a volunteer-based organization. Our findings indicate the ways in which these organizations foster social relations between participants, provide daily structure to non-working individuals, and connect people to other organizations and systemic bodies such as the labor market or local government. In addition, the relation between the neighborhood organizations and social policy has been considered, paying close attention to policy processes of decentralization, responsibilization, and social innovation. A central aim of this study is thus to analyze how neighborhood organizations mediate between social processes at the micro-level and macro-level systemic forces. Finally, this study discusses how considering the socially productive role of local organizations may advance neighborhood effects studies.
    Date: 2021–10–24
  47. By: Sergio Mayordomo; Mar\'ia Rodriguez-Moreno; Juan Ignacio Pe\~na
    Abstract: This paper studies the investment decision of the Spanish households using a unique data set, the Spanish Survey of Household Finance (EFF). We propose a theoretical model in which households, given a fixed investment in housing, allocate their net wealth across bank time deposits, stocks, and mortgage. Besides considering housing as an indivisible and illiquid asset that restricts the portfolio choice decision, we take into account the financial constraints that households face when they apply for external funding. For every representative household in the EFF we solve this theoretical problem and obtain the theoretically optimal portfolio that is compared with households' actual choices. We find that households significantly underinvest in stocks and deposits while the optimal and actual mortgage investments are alike. Considering the three types of financial assets at once, we find that the households headed by highly financially sophisticated, older, retired, richer, and unconstrained persons are the ones investing more efficiently.
    Date: 2022–02
  48. By: Md Murad (University of South Australia [Adelaide]); Md. Mahmudul Alam (UUM - Universiti Utara Malaysia); Shawon Shahriar (UKM - Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia)
    Abstract: The objective of this study is to analyse the rationales, challenges and prospects of Dhaka City being split up, for the purposes of creating a sustainable city grounded in relevant theories and widely used and accepted standards. An assessment of Dhaka being divided in accordance with the concept of City Development Strategies reveals considerable deficiencies in most aspects of public goods and services provisions. Whilst splitting Dhaka into separate sections supports the "World City Hypothesis" it is not without criticisms, for instance those raised by urban planners, experts and politicians. The lack of resources and oversight to address those deficiencies and problems and the administrative, allocative, economic and social inefficiencies makes it very difficult for Dhaka's authorities to achieve sustainable urbanisation. Therefore, appropriate strategies must be implemented by government to resolve these problems, inefficiencies and mismanagement in order for the city to be liveable sustainable.
    Keywords: Dhaka city,Sustainable city,City split,City development strategies,Sustainable urbanization,World City Hypothesis
    Date: 2021
  49. By: Batterham, Deb; Nygaard, Christian; reynolds, margaret; De Vries, Jacqueline
    Abstract: This research produces Small Area Estimates (SAE) of the population at-risk of homelessness in Australia. The incidence of homelessness risk is measured as a rate per 10,000 residents aged 15 years and over, at the ABS defined spatial scales Statistical Area level 2 (SA2), with a population ranging from 3,000 to 25,000 persons, and Statistical Area level 3 (SA3), which are an aggregation of SA2s and have a population ranging from 30,000 to 130,000.
    Date: 2021–11–25
  50. By: Beecham, Roger; Lovelace, Robin
    Abstract: Road safety research is a data-rich field with large social impacts. Like in medical research, the ambition is to build knowledge around risk factors that can save lives. Unlike medical research, road safety research generates empirical findings from messy observational datasets. Records of road crashes contain numerous intersecting categorical variables, dominating patterns that are complicated by confounding and, when conditioning on data to make inferences net of this, observed effects that are subject to uncertainty due to diminishing sample sizes. We demonstrate how visual data analysis approaches can inject rigour into exploratory analysis of such datasets. A framework is presented whereby graphics are used to expose, model and evaluate spatial patterns in observational data, as well as protect against false discovery. The framework is supported through an applied data analysis of national crash patterns recorded in STATS19, the main source of road crash information in Great Britain. Our framework moves beyond typical depictions of exploratory data analysis and helps navigate complex data analysis decision spaces characteristic of modern geographical analysis settings, generating data-driven outputs that support policy interventions and public debate.
    Date: 2022–01–13
  51. By: Nitin Kumar Bharti (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Sutanuka Roy
    Abstract: We estimate the causal effects of judges' exposure to communal violence during early childhood on pretrial detention rates by exploiting novel administrative data on judgments and detailed resumes of judicial officers born during 1955-1991. Our baseline result is that judges exposed to communal violence between ages 0 and 6 years are 16% more prone to deny bail than the average judge, with the impact being stronger for the experience of riots between ages 3 and 6 years. The observed judicial stringency is driven by childhood exposure to riots with a higher duration of state-imposed lockdowns and low riot casualties.
    Keywords: Early-childhood,Pretrial Detention,Judicial Bias,Communal Violence Early-childhood,Communal Violence
    Date: 2022–01
  52. By: Gustavo Manso; Farzad Pourbabaee
    Abstract: We study a social bandit problem featuring production and diffusion of knowledge. While higher connectivity enhances knowledge diffusion, it may reduce knowledge production as agents shy away from experimentation with new ideas and free ride on the observation of other agents. As a result, under some conditions, greater connectivity can lead to homogeneity and lower social welfare.
    Date: 2022–02
  53. By: Dimitriou, Dimitrios J.; Sartzetaki, Maria F.; Dadinidou, Smaro
    Abstract: This paper reviews the European Funding Programs impact on regional and economic development. The case study focuses on “Eastern Macedonia & Thrace” (EMTH) Region, a region in the nation of Greece. EMTH Region boasts a number of comparative advantages related to its strategic location, bordering Bulgaria on the North and Turkey on the East. In addition, EMTH Region is one of the regions in Greece with the lowest GDP per capita. Moreover, is a region of great importance with great existing transport infrastructure, widespread network of industrial areas, academic-R&D infrastructure & dynamics and many opportunities in the renewable energy sources. The purpose of the paper is the evaluation of the European Union Funding programs, highlighting and supporting the main target of these funding programs to force and enable a sustainable social and economic growth to the poorest European neighborhoods in order to achieve the average European Union prosperity. The framework analysis of the paper is based on an ex-post evaluation framework of the Regional Operational Programs that Greece and the “EMTH Region, have participated since Greece's entry into the European Union. The case study focused on some large European Support Regional Programs as the Mediterranean Integrated Programs (IMPs, 1986-1993), the 1st Community Support Framework (CSF I) (1989-1993), the 2nd Community Support Framework (CSF II) (1994-1999), the 3rd Community Support Framework (CSF) (2000 -2006) as well as the National Strategic Reference Frameworks (NSRF) (2007-2013) and (2014-2020). Valuable conclusions were derived, mainly regarding the absorption of the programs in the EMTH Region and regional and economic development of the case study region features during this period.
    Date: 2022–01–16
  54. By: Lucas Finamor
    Abstract: College students graduating in a recession face large and persistent negative effects, including lower labor market earnings, worse health, higher crime rates, and adverse effects on family formation. This paper investigates whether college students delay graduation to avoid entering a depressed labor market. I explore variation in the labor market conditions across time, space, and chosen majors. Using data from the universe of students in higher education in Brazil, I find that students in public institutions expected to graduate in a recession are less likely to graduate on time. The delaying effect is larger for students in better programs, higher-earnings majors, and from more advantaged backgrounds. The results point to important inequality implications about who bears the costs of recessions: more privileged students are able to postpone graduation and avoid entering a depressed labor market.
    Date: 2022–01
  55. By: Melike Kökkizil (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Italy)
    Abstract: Does parents' religiosity affect their female offspring's education and other life-long outcomes? I address this question by focusing on Turkey and exploiting Ramadan as a quasi-natural experiment for increased active religiosity. I find that the occurrence of Ramadan at the enrollment time in primary schools reduces girls' chance to access primary education. This result arises from the salience of traditional gender norms that religiosity engenders. I further show that parental religiosity at the primary school enrollment has persistent effects on females' labor market outcomes. They become less likely to participate in the labor market, less likely to be income-earners, and less likely to work in professional jobs. Instead, increased religiosity at the critical age of schooling increases fertility and the probability of women being out of the labor force due to household responsibilities. These results are robust to di erent specifications and an alternative empirical strategy that uses average daylight hours during Ramadan in the year of primary school enrollment as a shock to religiosity.
    Keywords: Islam, Gender Equality, Ramadan, Social Norms, Illegal Behavior.
    JEL: Z12 J16 I24 I25 J12 J13 D91 J12 J13 K38 K42
    Date: 2022–02
  56. By: Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln; Dirk Krueger; André Kurmann; Ãtienne Lalé; Irina Popova; Alexander Ludwig
    Abstract: Using a structural life-cycle model and data on school visits from Safegraph and school closures from Burbio, we quantify the heterogeneous impact of school closures during the Corona crisis on children affected at different ages and coming from households with different parental characteristics. Our data suggests that secondary schools were closed for in-person learning for longer periods than elementary schools (implying that younger children experienced less school closures than older children), and that private schools experienced shorter closures than public schools, and schools in poorer U.S. counties experienced shorter school closures. We then extend the structural life cycle model of private and public schooling investments studied in Fuchs-Schündeln, Krueger, Ludwig, and Popova (2021) to include the choice of parents whether to send their children to private schools, empirically discipline it with data on parental investments from the PSID, and then feed into the model the school closure measures from our empirical analysis to quantify the long-run consequences of the Covid-19 school closures on the cohorts of children currently in school. Future earnings- and welfare losses are largest for children that started public secondary schools at the onset of the Covid-19 crisis. Comparing children from the topto children from the bottom quartile of the income distribution, welfare losses are ca. 0.8 percentage points larger for the poorer children if school closures were unrelated to income. Accounting for the longer school closures in richer counties reduces this gap by about 1/3. A policy intervention that extends schools by 3 months (6 weeks in the next two summers) generates signicant welfare gains for the children and raises future tax revenues approximately sufficient to pay for the cost of this schooling expansion. À l'aide d'un modèle structurel de cycle de vie et de données sur les visites d'écoles provenant de Safegraph et sur les fermetures d'écoles provenant de Burbio, nous quantifions l'impact hétérogène des fermetures d'écoles pendant la crise de la COVID-19 sur les enfants affectés à différents âges et provenant de ménages ayant des caractéristiques parentales différentes. Nos données suggèrent que les écoles secondaires ont été fermées pendant des périodes plus longues que les écoles élémentaires (ce qui implique que les enfants plus jeunes ont reçu davantage d’enseignement en présentiel que les enfants plus âgés), et que les écoles privées ont connu des fermetures plus courtes que les écoles publiques, et que les écoles des comtés américains plus pauvres ont connu des fermetures d'écoles plus courtes. Nous étendons ensuite le modèle structurel du cycle de vie des investissements dans l'enseignement privé et public étudié par Fuchs Schundeln, Krueger, Ludwig et Popova (2021) pour inclure le choix des parents d'envoyer ou non leurs enfants dans des écoles privées ; nous le disciplinons empiriquement avec des données sur les investissements parentaux provenant du PSID ; puis nous introduisons dans le modèle les mesures de fermeture d'écoles de notre analyse empirique afin de quantifier les conséquences à long terme des fermetures d'écoles sur les cohortes d'enfants scolarisés pendant la pandémie de la COVID-19. Les pertes futures de revenus et de bien-être sont les plus importantes pour les enfants qui ont commencé l'école secondaire publique au début de la crise de la COVID-19. Si l'on compare les enfants du quartile supérieur aux enfants du quartile inférieur de la distribution des revenus, les pertes de bien-être sont d'environ 0,8 point de pourcentage supérieures pour les enfants les plus pauvres. La prise en compte des fermetures d'écoles plus longues dans les comtés plus riches réduit cet écart d'environ 1/3. Une intervention politique qui prolongerait la scolarité de 3 mois (6 semaines au cours des deux étés à venir) génère des gains de bien-être significatifs pour les enfants et dégage des recettes fiscales futures qui permettraient approximativement de financer cette extension de la scolarité.
    Keywords: , Covid-19,fermetures d'écoles,inégalité,persistance intergénérationnelle
    JEL: D15 D31 E24 I24
    Date: 2021–11–12

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