nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2022‒01‒24
71 papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. What Makes a Classmate a Peer? Examining which peers matter in NYC elementary schools By Horrace, William; Jung, Hyunseok; Presler, Jonathan; Schwartz, Amy Ellen
  2. Heir's Property in an Urban Context By Stein, Sarah; Carpenter, Ann
  3. The Dark Side of the Geography of Innovation. Relatedness, Complexity, and Regional Inequality in Europe By Flavio L. Pinheiro; Pierre-Alexandre Balland; Ron Boschma; Dominik Hartmann
  4. A financial stability perspective on the First Home shared equity scheme By De Burca, Orla; Kelly, Robert; O'Brien, Eoin
  5. The cost of housing and indebtedness across European and OECD households By Kelly, Jane; Kennedy, Gerard; Lambert, Derek
  6. Ginnie Mae and the Securitization of Federally Guaranteed Mortgages By Congressional Budget Office
  7. Spatial and Time Spillovers of Driving Restrictions: Causal Evidence from Lima's Pico Y Placa Policy By Salgado, Edgar; Mitnik, Oscar A.
  8. The Effects of Leverage on Investments in Maintenance: Evidence from Apartments By Lee Seltzer
  9. COVID-19 and entrepreneurial processes in U.S. equity crowdfunding By Cumming, Douglas J.; Reardon, Robert S.
  10. Regional Knowledge Spaces: The Interplay of Entry-Relatedness and Entry-Potential for Technological Change and Growth By Dieter F. Kogler; Ronald B. Davies; Changjun Lee; Keungoui Kim
  11. Rent Control Effects through the Lens of Empirical Research By Konstantin A. Kholodilin
  12. Shadow economy and regional development - an argument in favor of fiscal decentralization By Petranov, Stefan
  13. «Skin Tone Differences in Social Mobility in Mexico: Are We Forgetting Regional Variance?» By Luis Angel Monroy; Gómez Franco; Roberto Vélez Grajales
  14. Mortgage lending in Ireland during the 2010s By Gaffney, Edward; Kinghan, Christina
  15. Innovation Policy Within the Greater Bay Area: Hong Kong and Shenzhen's Cross-Border Regional Innovation System By Naubahar Sharif
  16. Better out than in? Regional disparity and heterogeneous income effects of the euro By Sang-Wook (Stanley) Cho; Sally Wong
  17. Housing Price Prediction Model Selection Based on Lorenz and Concentration Curves: Empirical Evidence from Tehran Housing Market By Mohammad Mirbagherijam
  18. Social Transfers and Spatial Distortions By Mark Colas; Robert McDonough
  20. Dreaming of Leaving the Nest? Immigration Status and the Living Arrangements of DACAmented By Gihleb, Rania; Giuntella, Osea; Lonsky, Jakub
  21. The macroeconomic channels of macroprudential mortgage policies By Aikman, David; Kelly, Robert; McCann, Fergal; Yao, Fang
  22. Does relative age affect speed and quality of transition from school to work? By Luca Fumarco; Alessandro Vandromme; Levi Halewyck; Eline Moens; Stijn Baert
  23. Inattention and Inequity in School Matching By Stefan F. Bucher; Andrew Caplin
  24. Social mobility and economic development By Neidhöfer, Guido; Ciaschi, Matías; Gasparini, Leonardo; Serrano, Joaquín
  25. The Role Of Spatial Trajectory In Leisure Participation By Sergey A. Korotaev; Elena N. Gasiukova; Ovsey I. Shkaratan; Elena N. Danilova
  26. A dynamic theory of spatial externalities By Raouf Boucekkine; Giorgio Fabbri; Salvatore Federico; Fausto Gozzi
  27. Long-term mortgage arrears: Analytical evidence for policy considerations By Kelly, Jane; Lyons, Paul; McCann, Fergal; O'Brien, Eoghan
  28. The household effects of mortgage regulation By Knut Are Aastveit; Ragnar Enger Juelsrud; Ella Getz Wold
  29. Discontinuities in the Age-Victimization Profile and the Determinants of Victimization By Bindler, Anna; Hjalmarsson, Randi; Ketel, Nadine; Mitrut, Andreea
  30. Prosperity or pollution? Mineral mining and regional growth in industrializing Japan By Kota Ogasawara
  31. Report on the analysis of an innovative housing project promoting refugees' integration in France: the case of the Cinq Toits (Paris) By Dafne Accoroni; Eunice Cascant; Lauren Dixon; Noémie Dominguez; Emily Mugel; Catherine Mercier-Suissa; Maité Pinchon; Nancy Ottaviano
  32. The effect of property taxes on house prices: Evidence from the 1993 and the 2012 reforms in Italy By Melisso Boschi; Valeria Bevilacqua; Carla Di Falco
  33. Math Corps Successfully Replicated By Barbara Harris; Lindsay Fox
  34. Air Pollution and Migration: Exploiting a Natural Experiment from the Czech Republic By Mikula, Stepan; Pytlikova, Mariola
  35. Fiscal Multipliers in the COVID-19 Recession By Auerbach, Alan; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; McCrory, Peter B.; Murphy, Daniel
  36. FinTech Development in Greater Manchester: An Overview By Miglo, Anton
  37. Neighborhood Income and Material Hardship in the United States By John Iceland; Claire Kovach
  38. The Effects of Letters of Recommendation in the Youth Labor Market By Sara B. Heller; Judd B. Kessler
  39. COVID-19 Vaccines: A Shot in Arm for the Economy By Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen; Rui C. Mano
  40. Overview of Refugees’ access to housing in France: the metropoles of Lyon and Rennes By Noémie Dominguez; Patricia Loncle; Emanuelle Maunaye; Eunice Cascant; Catherine Mercier-Suissa; Emily Mugel; Maité Pinchon; Nancy Ottaviano
  41. Information, Intermediaries, and International Migration By Samuel Bazzi; Lisa Cameron; Simone G. Schaner; Firman Witoelar
  42. Youth At-Risk of Homelessness: Design for an Impact Study of "Pathways to Success" By Russell Cole; Menbere Shiferaw; Cay Bradley
  43. Using Neural Networks to Predict Micro-Spatial Economic Growth By Arman Khachiyan; Anthony Thomas; Huye Zhou; Gordon H. Hanson; Alex Cloninger; Tajana Rosing; Amit Khandelwal
  44. Forced Displacement and Human Capital: Evidence from Separated Siblings By Giorgio Chiovelli; Stelios Michalopoulos; Elias Papaioannou; Sandra Sequeira
  45. External knowledge diversity, competition intensity and innovation performance in logistics: Implications for less versus more innovative industries By Haji Ali Beigi, Maryam
  46. Organizational innovation: Interactive role of external knowledge strategies and market dynamisms By Haji Ali Beigi, Maryam
  47. The economics of mortgage debt relief during a pandemic By Gaffney, Edward; McCann, Fergal; Stroebel, Johannes
  48. When is the electric vehicle market self-sustaining? Evidence from Norway By Nicolas Koch; Nolan Ritter; Alexander Rohlf; Francesco Scarazzato
  49. Regional medical practice variation in high-cost healthcare services: evidence from diagnostic imaging in Austria By Berger, Michael; Czypionka, Thomas
  50. The Effect of Age Diversity in Groups on Peer Evaluations and Individual Performance By Görlitz, Katja; Sels, Tim
  51. Administrative Border Effects in COVID-19 Related Mortality By Berta, Paolo; Bratti, Massimiliano; Fiorio, Carlo V.; Pisoni, Enrico; Verzillo, Stefano
  52. Conforming with Peers in Honesty and Cooperation By Ozan Isler; Simon Gaechter
  53. Irish Mortgage Payment Breaks – Extensions and Expirations By Kelly, Jane; Lyons, Paul; O'Brien, Eoghan; Rice, Jonathan
  54. Land Speculation and Wobbly Dynamics with Endogenous Phase Transitions By Tomohiro HIRANO; Joseph E. Stiglitz
  55. Does economic self-interest determine public attitudes toward immigrants? An econometric case study in Japan By Shingo Takahashi; Ana Maria Takahashi
  56. Is more diverse always the better? External knowledge source clusters and innovation performance in Germany By Haji Ali Beigi, Maryam
  57. Youth At-Risk of Homelessness: Design for an Implementation Study of "Pathways to Success" By Rosalind Keith; Rebekah Selekman; Andrew Burwick
  58. Trade and Inequality in Europe and the US By Dorn, David; Levell, Peter
  59. Nonparametric Treatment Effect Identification in School Choice By Jiafeng Chen
  60. Dynamic Impacts of Lockdown on Domestic Violence : Evidence from Multiple Policy Shifts in Chile By Bhalotra, Sonia; Brito, Emilia; Clarke, Damian; Larroulet, Pilar; Pino, Francisco
  61. The impact of police violence: Evidence from student protests By Gonzalez, Felipe; Prem, Mounu
  62. Endogenous Spatial Production Networks: Quantitative Implications for Trade and Productivity By Piyush Panigrahi
  63. Rethinking Border Enforcement, Permanent and Circular Migration By Basu, Arnab K.; Chau, Nancy H.; Park, Brian
  64. The Employment in Innovative Enterprises in Europe By Laureti, Lucio; Costantiello, Alberto; Matarrese, Marco Maria; Leogrande, Angelo
  65. Do Chinese Infrastructure Loans Promote Entrepreneurship in African Countries? By Munemo, Jonathan
  66. Victims of electoral violence and their children experience irreversible stunting: The long-term welfare effects of electoral violence By Roxana Guti\'errez-Romero
  67. Mobile Internet Access and the Desire to Emigrate By Joop Age Harm Adema; Cevat Giray Aksoy; Panu Poutvaara
  68. Learning in Repeated Interactions on Networks By Wanying Huang; Philipp Strack; Omer Tamuz
  69. Finding the instrumental variables of household registration: A discussion of the impact of China's household registration system on the citizenship of the migrant population By Jingwen Tan; Shixi Kang
  70. Did the Minimum Wage Reduce the Gender Wage Gap in Germany? By Caliendo, Marco; Wittbrodt, Linda
  71. Using maps to predict economic activity By Imryoung Jeong; Hyunjoo Yang

  1. By: Horrace, William (Syracuse University); Jung, Hyunseok (University of Arkansas); Presler, Jonathan (Sinquefield Center for Applied Economic Research, Saint Louis University); Schwartz, Amy Ellen (Syracuse University)
    Abstract: We identify and estimate the effects of student-level social spillovers on standardized test performance in New York City (NYC) elementary schools. We leverage student demographic data to construct within-classroom social networks based on shared student characteristics, such as a gender or ethnicity. Rather than aggregate shared characteristics into a single network matrix, we specify additively separate network matrices for each shared characteristic and estimate city-wide peer effects for each one. Conditional on sharing a classroom, we find that the most important student peer effects are shared ethnicity, gender, and primary language spoken at home. Identification of the model is discussed.
    Keywords: Peer effect; Network; Homophily; Education
    JEL: C31 I21
    Date: 2021–10–01
  2. By: Stein, Sarah; Carpenter, Ann
    Abstract: Heirs’ property owners are susceptible to family land loss due to the precarity of their shared ownership structure. They are also often limited in their access to the economic value of their land since they do not have clear, marketable title. Although often discussed as a rural issue, heirs’ property manifests in urban areas, as well, where these properties have spillover effects, particularly in historically disinvested communities that experience deeper susceptibility to shocks and stresses. Using the Jacksonville, FL area as a case study, we first estimate the extent of residential heirs’ property in this area. We do this using property records data. Based on these figures, we address the cumulative impacts these properties have on individual families, neighborhoods, and the broader urban region. We make efforts to account for the economic impact of these properties, on an individual family level as well as a community level. We also consider the intersection of heirs’ property with system shocks, such as recent hurricanes, as well as historic practices of racial exclusion. Our research finds that urban heirs’ property in this setting share many characteristics prior research has associated with rural heirs’ properties. Heirs’ properties tend to be found within lower-income, low-wealth (in terms of housing equity), low educational attainment, and racial and ethnic minority communities. Our regression results also indicated that neighborhoods with a higher share of the population that is Black had a significant and positive impact on heirs’ property concentration. Our spatial analysis of historic redlining practices indicated significant overlap between the concentration of heirs’ property and those areas explicitly excluded from mainstream financial investment on the basis of a neighborhood’s racial composition. We estimate that $5 billion in housing value may be locked or vulnerable to land loss in Duval County due to heirs’ property status. These properties tend to be older, have elevated vulnerability to flooding based on claims filed after Hurricane Irma, and are less likely to be insured, meaning that they are ill-prepared and at high risk for events that could further depreciate or destroy homes owned by heirs as tenants in common.
    Keywords: Land Economics/Use
    Date: 2022
  3. By: Flavio L. Pinheiro; Pierre-Alexandre Balland; Ron Boschma; Dominik Hartmann
    Abstract: As regions evolve, their economies become more complex, and they tend to diversify into related activities. Although there is a bright side to this diversification process in terms of economic development, there may also be a dark side to it, as it possibly contributes to regional inequalities. The paper uses data on industries and patents to analyze the diversification patterns of 283 regions in 32 European countries over the past 15 years. We find that only the most economically advanced regions have the opportunity to diversify into highly complex activities. These regions tend to focus on related high-complex activities, while lagging regions focus on related low-complex activities, creating a spatial inequality feedback loop. This pattern creates a wicked problem for innovation policy: the strategy needed to improve the innovativeness of the European knowledge system might disproportionately benefit regions that are already developed and foster disparities.
    Keywords: dark side of innovation, geography of innovation, regional diversification, complexity, regional inequality, Smart Specialisation Policy
    JEL: O25 O33 R11 O31
    Date: 2022–01
  4. By: De Burca, Orla (Central Bank of Ireland); Kelly, Robert (Central Bank of Ireland); O'Brien, Eoin (Central Bank of Ireland)
    Abstract: This Note outlines the interaction between the First Home scheme and the Central Bank’s macroprudential mortgage measures. Taking a financial stability perspective, it analyses the considerations, covering the implications for borrower resilience, bank resilience as well as credit and house price dynamics, that underpin the change in the mortgage measures regulations to clarify the ability of regulated mortgage providers to take part in the scheme. The implications for borrower and bank resilience are considered to be limited or (better) mitigated by other elements of the prudential framework. Nonetheless, as a measure which will boost the finance available to households to purchase a home the potential for creating upward pressure on house prices is present. The extent of this impact will depend on broader housing market conditions and given the anticipated size of the scheme the Central Bank judged that it would not be proportionate for the mortgage measures framework to altogether restrict lenders from participating in its introduction. Central to this judgement is the characteristics of this form of financing, other safeguards provided by prudential bank capital regulations and the Scheme’s initial scale and scope.
    Date: 2021–11
  5. By: Kelly, Jane (Central Bank of Ireland); Kennedy, Gerard (Central Bank of Ireland); Lambert, Derek (Central Bank of Ireland)
    Abstract: Challenges around housing affordability have been growing internationally in recent years. In that context, we compare how Ireland’s experience has related to that of other European and OECD countries. Housing represents one of the largest single outlays for households as well as one of the largest sources of wealth for most owner occupiers. We show household debt burdens in Ireland are now closer to other European countries having been above average in the past. We highlight that mortgage and rental burdens in Ireland – although uneven across the household income distribution – are broadly comparable to those of other OECD countries. We find that house price valuations relative to incomes and to a lesser extent rents remain elevated relative to history, but nowhere near the levels preceding the housing crash and are slightly lower than two to three years ago. We also examine the relative affordability of acquiring home-ownership in a cross-country context, by constructing a series of national house price to income ratios and find that, on average, the current Irish level is in-line with many other developed economies. This is not to say that housing in Ireland is inexpensiveon an absolute basis but in placing the Irish data in a broader international context we show that the housing affordability pressures appear to be part of a wider set of global challenging trends in housing markets. This note mainly focuses on averages and does not examine the issue of housing affordability of individuals where experiences are likely to vary widely depending on income and within country regional dynamics.
    Date: 2021–10
  6. By: Congressional Budget Office
    Abstract: The Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae), part of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, works to attract capital to the market for federally insured mortgages. To do that, it guarantees timely payment to investors on mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) that private financial institutions create from mortgages insured or guaranteed by other federal programs.
    JEL: G21 G28 H81
    Date: 2022–01–12
  7. By: Salgado, Edgar (Inter-American Development Bank); Mitnik, Oscar A. (Inter-American Development Bank)
    Abstract: Driving restrictions are popular interventions in rapidly urbanizing developing countries. Their relatively inexpensive implementation appeals to the pressing need to reduce traffic congestion and pollution. Their effectiveness however, remains contested. Using high frequency data from the community-based driving directions app Waze, we evaluate the causal effect on traffic congestion of Lima's Pico y Placa driving restriction policy introduced in 2019. We find small improvements in traffic congestion for the policy's directly targeted areas. However, those improvements are offset by time and spatial spillovers in the opposite direction in the aggregate. Speed improved by 2 percent during the early weeks of the intervention, but this effect disappeared 16 weeks after the start of the policy. Moreover, traffic conditions worsened in adjacent areas and in hours outside the time schedule of the policy. In the aggregate, accounting for time and spatial spillovers, a simulation exercise suggests that overall welfare declined by 2 percent, mostly driven by the extensive margin (more roads becoming congested) outside the direct areas and hours targeted by the policy. The policy seems not only to have failed to achieve its intended benefits in terms of congestion, but also probably caused increases in traffic-related pollution. These results highlight the need for policy makers to take into account the overall impacts of driving restrictions policies before implementing them.
    Keywords: driving restrictions, congestion spillovers, welfare impacts
    JEL: H41 Q58 R41 R48
    Date: 2021–12
  8. By: Lee Seltzer
    Abstract: This paper studies the sensitivity of investment in apartment building maintenance to building debt levels. I use a novel data set combining housing code violations from forty-five U.S. cities with apartment financing information to show that highly leveraged buildings tend to be less well maintained. I then exploit a natural experiment that effectively increases building leverage for some New York City rent-stabilized buildings, but not others. Following the shock, violations increase for affected buildings relative to unaffected buildings. This change in violations is concentrated among more highly leveraged buildings. The results are consistent with debt-reducing investments in maintenance, with consequences for renter quality of life.
    Keywords: corporate finance; commercial real estate; housing code violations
    JEL: G3 G31 R30
    Date: 2021–12–01
  9. By: Cumming, Douglas J.; Reardon, Robert S.
    Abstract: COVID-19 brought about a shift in entrepreneurial opportunities and in the United States. In this paper, we proxy entrepreneurial processes by examining housing prices in different regions of the United States. Housing prices capture the movement in people, tax dynamics, and behavioral preferences for equity ownership in different regions and over time, all of which were drastically impacted by COVID-19. We examine all U.S. equity crowdfunding offerings starting with the very first offerings in 2016 Q2 until 2021 Q1 based on data from the Securities and Exchange Commission. The data indicate that regional housing prices post-COVID-19 are a strong predictor of the number of equity crowdfunding campaigns and the amount of capital raised. The impact of housing price changes on crowdfunding is more pronounced among more prosperous regions. The housing price effect is robust to numerous controls and consideration of outliers.
    Keywords: Equity Crowdfunding,COVID-19,Regional Entrepreneurship
    JEL: G21 G28 G51
    Date: 2021
  10. By: Dieter F. Kogler; Ronald B. Davies; Changjun Lee; Keungoui Kim
    Abstract: This paper aims to uncover the mechanism of how the network properties of regional knowledge spaces contribute to technological change from the perspective of regional knowledge entry-relatedness and regional knowledge entry-potential. Entry-relatedness, which has been previously employed to investigate the technology evolution of regional economies, is advanced by introducing a knowledge gravity model. The entry-potential of a newly acquired regional specialisation has been largely ignored in the relevant literature; surprisingly given the high relevance that is attributed to the recombination potential of new capabilities. In other words, just adding new knowledge domains to a system is not sufficient alone, it really depends on how these fit into the existing system and thus can generate wider economic benefits. Based on an empirical analysis of EU Metro and non-Metro regions from 1981 to 2015, we find that entry-relatedness has a significant negative association with novel inventive activities, while entry-potential has a significant positive association with the development of novel products and processes of economic value. This highlights that regions’ capacity to venture into high-potential areas of technological specialization in the knowledge space outperforms purely relatedness driven diversification that is frequently promoted in the relevant literature.
    Keywords: Regional knowledge space; Entry-relatedness; Entry-potential; Technological change; Economic growth; Patent analysis
    JEL: O33 O31 R11
    Date: 2021–09
  11. By: Konstantin A. Kholodilin
    Abstract: Rent control is a highly debated social policy that has been omnipresent since World War I. Since 2010s, it has been experiencing a true renaissance, for many cities and countries facing housing shortage are desperately looking for solutions of the chronic housing shortage and direct their attention to controlling housing rents and to other restrictive policies. Is rent control useful or does it create more damage than utility? In order to answer this question, we need to know what are the effects of rent control. This study overviews a large empirical literature looking at various aspects of rent controls. We come to conclusion that rent controls are quite effective in terms of lowering housing rents or slowing down their growth, but they also lead to a wide range of adverse effects impacting both landlords and tenants
    Date: 2022
  12. By: Petranov, Stefan
    Abstract: The article discusses the regional aspects of the shadow economy in Bulgaria. The main factors that generate motivation for shadow practices are considered and it is concluded that they operate mainly at the national level. It follows that measures to limit and prevent this phenomenon should be primarily national. However, the article argues that regional policies can also be used in this regard. A moderate fiscal decentralization can help to increase the tax morality which is one of the most slowly changing and most intractable factors generating motivation for the implementation of shadow practices. It is also argued that fiscal decentralization in Bulgaria has the potential to improve other aspects of the economic system.
    Keywords: shadow economy, regional development, regional policies, fiscal decentralization, Bulgaria
    JEL: E26 H7 H71 R1
    Date: 2021–06–01
  13. By: Luis Angel Monroy; Gómez Franco; Roberto Vélez Grajales (Centro de Estudios Espinosa Yglesias)
    Abstract: Recent analyses at the national scale have concluded that there is a strong relationship between skin tones and social mobility in Mexico, where darker skin tones are associated with lower rates of relative upward intergenerational mobility compared to the rest of the population. The present paper shows that these previous estimates are biased downwards as they fail to take into account the effects of regional differences in the distribution of skin tones. We correct for this factor by analyzing a new data set with information representative at the regional level. Our results suggest that the mobility gap between light and dark skin tone individuals persists after including the regional dimension in the analysis. Throughout the country, light skin individuals have an advantage at moving upwards the socioeconomic scale and remaining at the top compared with the rest of the population. However, the magnitude of the gap varies across regions, being smallest in Mexico City and largest in the North West and South regions of the country.
    Date: 2020
  14. By: Gaffney, Edward (Central Bank of Ireland); Kinghan, Christina (Central Bank of Ireland)
    Abstract: This note assesses residential mortgage market developments in Ireland during the 2010s and in 2020, with a focus on the period since the introduction of the Central Bank of Ireland’s mortgage measures in 2015. Lending increased continuously between 2014 and 2019 to almost €10 billion per year, before declining in 2020 amid COVID-19. During the 2010s, income growth among first-time buyers exceeded growth in average incomes, and the average homebuyer was older than previously, reflecting challenges to affordability and pent-up demand after low home purchase volumes during the early 2010s. The mortgage measures reduced lending at high LTI and LTV ratios, assisted by more cautious risk appetites among lenders and borrowers. Around 20 per cent of lending is above the LTI and LTV limits in the mortgage measures, typically offered to relatively young borrowers in Dublin. A growing share of lending is at or close to the LTI and LTV limits. In 2020, 20 per cent of lending was at the LTI limit and 40 per cent was at the LTV limit. This indicates that in the absence of the mortgage measures, new lending would have involved higher levels of indebtedness, especially among first-time buyers and borrowers earning average or low incomes.
    Date: 2021–10
  15. By: Naubahar Sharif (Acting Head and Professor, Division of Public Policy; The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)
    Abstract: The innovation policy landscapes in Hong and Shenzhen differ considerably, with Hong Kong's largely fragmented and duplicative and Shenzhen's concentrated but less extensive. Together Hong Kong and Shenzhen constitute at best a weakly integrated cross-border regional innovation system. The two cities should pursue opportunities for policy coordination regarding overseas talent recruitment, collaborative R&D, strengthening regional competitiveness, and supporting start-ups.
    Date: 2021–10
  16. By: Sang-Wook (Stanley) Cho; Sally Wong
    Abstract: This paper conducts a counterfactual analysis on the effect of adopting the euro on regional income and disparity within Denmark and Sweden. Using the synthetic control method, we find that Danish regions would have experienced small heterogeneous effects from adopting the euro in terms of GDP per capita, while all Swedish regions are better off without the euro with varying magnitudes. Adopting the euro would have decreased regional income disparity in Denmark, while the effect is ambiguous in Sweden due to greater convergence among noncapital regions but further divergence with Stockholm. The lower disparity observed across Danish regions and non-capital Swedish regions as a result of eurozone membership is primarily driven by losses suffered by high-income regions rather than from gains to low-income regions. These results highlight the cost of foregoing stabilisation tools such as an independent monetary policy and a floating exchange rate regime. For Sweden in particular, macroeconomic stability outweighs the potential efficiency gains from a common currency.
    Keywords: currency union, euro, synthetic control method, regional income disparity
    JEL: C21 E65 F45 O52 R1
    Date: 2021–10
  17. By: Mohammad Mirbagherijam
    Abstract: This study contributes a house price prediction model selection in Tehran City based on the area between Lorenz curve (LC) and concentration curve (CC) of the predicted price by using 206,556 observed transaction data over the period from March 21, 2018, to February 19, 2021. Several different methods such as generalized linear models (GLM) and recursive partitioning and regression trees (RPART), random forests (RF) regression models, and neural network (NN) models were examined house price prediction. We used 90% of all data samples which were chosen randomly to estimate the parameters of pricing models and 10% of remaining datasets to test the accuracy of prediction. Results showed that the area between the LC and CC curves (which are known as ABC criterion) of real and predicted prices in the test data sample of the random forest regression model was less than by other models under study. The comparison of the calculated ABC criteria leads us to conclude that the nonlinear regression models such as RF regression models give an accurate prediction of house prices in Tehran City.
    Date: 2021–12
  18. By: Mark Colas; Robert McDonough
    Abstract: US social transfer programs vary substantially across states, incentivizing households to locate in states with more generous transfer programs. Further, transfer formulas often decrease in income, therefore rewarding low-income households for living in low-paying cities. We quantify these distortions by combining a spatial equilibrium model with a detailed model of transfer programs in the US. The current system leads to locational inefficiency of 4.38% of total transfer spending. A reform that both harmonizes transfer policies across states and indexes household income to local average earnings reduces this inefficiency by over 85 percent while still preserving the programs' means-tested nature.
    Keywords: Social transfers; Local labor markets; Spatial equilibrium
    JEL: R13 I38 H21
    Date: 2021–11–17
  19. By: Denis Zubalov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Margarita Burdygina (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Arina Afanasieva (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Pavel Ali-zade (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The present study looks at the micro-level language policy and how it is implemented in the state Moscow school with a high degree of ethnically diverse students. More specifically, we analyze the measures that the school administration takes as well as teachers’ educational practices when it comes to immigrant children’s linguistic and cultural integration into the Russian education system. On the one hand, the school has to stick to the official curriculum where the language of instruction is exclusively Russian, and on the other hand, it has to linguistically and culturally socialize and adapt students whose proficiency in Russian is either low or non-existent. Taking into account the fact that the vast majority of teachers of the Russian language and literature have not had any training on how to teach in culturally and linguistically diverse educational settings, the present research aims to identify the major challenges that teachers face working such conditions
    Keywords: language policy, education, identity
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2021
  20. By: Gihleb, Rania (University of Pittsburgh); Giuntella, Osea (University of Pittsburgh); Lonsky, Jakub (University of Liverpool)
    Abstract: This study investigates the effects of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) on the living arrangements and housing behavior of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. Using an event-study approach and difference-in-differences (DID) estimates, we compare immigrants above and below eligibility cutoffs and demonstrate that after the adoption of the policy in June 2012, DACA-eligible immigrants were less likely to live with their parents or in multigenerational households (-11%) and more likely to live independently (+15.5%). We also reveal that DACA-eligible immigrants were less likely to live in the same house (+2%) and more likely to move out of ethnic enclaves (-3%). Lower rental costs (-4.5%) may have facilitated this transition into adulthood and the observed trends in living arrangements. DACA also led to a decline in marriage rates among DACA-eligible individuals, while we found no evidence of significant effects on cohabitation, divorce, and intermarriage. We also found no evidence of a clear impact on fertility.
    Keywords: immigration status, DACA, living arrangements, rental markets
    JEL: J1 J23 J24 R2
    Date: 2021–11
  21. By: Aikman, David (Central Bank of Ireland); Kelly, Robert (Central Bank of Ireland); McCann, Fergal (Central Bank of Ireland); Yao, Fang (Central Bank of Ireland)
    Abstract: Borrower-based macroprudential policies, such as limits to loan-to-value and loan-to-income ratios, have grown in popularity in the last decade globally. An understanding of their effects, both intended and unintended, is continuously evolving. In this Note, we discuss the macroeconomic channels though which such measures, like all economic policies, can both benefit and impose costs on the economy. System-wide benefits of such measures arise predominantly through the taming of housing-credit cycles, which lower both the probability and the severity of financial recessions, as well as avoiding resource misallocation. Such crises have been shown to have particularly harmful effects, are followed by slow recoveries and can have persistent adverse macroeconomic effects. The macroeconomic costs of such measures operate through liquidity constraints on renters, and reductions in consumption and construction activity that may arise through dampened house prices and expectations. These macroeconomic costs are more likely to be short-term, and less likely to affect the productive capacity of the economy in the long-run.
    Date: 2021–10
  22. By: Luca Fumarco; Alessandro Vandromme; Levi Halewyck; Eline Moens; Stijn Baert (-)
    Abstract: We are the first to estimate the impact of relative age (i.e., the difference in classmates’ ages) on both speed and quality of individuals’ transition from education to the labour market. Moreover, we are the first to explore whether and how this impact passes through characteristics of students’ educational career. We use rich data pertaining to schooling and to labour market outcomes one year after graduation to conduct instrumental variables analyses. We find that a one-year increase in relative age increases the likelihood of (i) being employed then by 3.5 percentage points, (ii) having a permanent contract by 5.1 percentage points, and (iii) having full-time employment by 6.5 percentage points. These relative age effects are partly mediated by intermediate outcomes such as having had a schooling delay at the age of sixteen or taking on student jobs. The final mediator is particularly notable as no earlier studies examined relative age effects on student employment.
    Keywords: relative age, school starting age, labour market transition
    JEL: I21 J23 J24 J6
    Date: 2022–01
  23. By: Stefan F. Bucher; Andrew Caplin
    Abstract: The attractive properties of the Deferred Acceptance (DA) algorithm rest on the assumption of perfect information. Yet field studies of school matching show that information is imperfect, particularly for disadvantaged students. We model costly strategic learning when schools are ex ante symmetric, agree on their ranking of students, and learning is rationally inattentive. Our analytic solution quantifies how each student’s rank, learning costs and prior beliefs interact to determine their gross and net welfare as well as the extent and form of mistakes they make. In line with the evidence, we find that lower-ranked students are affected disproportionately more by information costs, generally suffering a larger welfare loss than higher-ranked students. Interactions between mechanism design, inattention and inequity are thus of first order importance.
    JEL: C78 D47 D82 D83
    Date: 2021–12
  24. By: Neidhöfer, Guido; Ciaschi, Matías; Gasparini, Leonardo; Serrano, Joaquín
    Abstract: We explore the role of social mobility as a driver of economic development. First, we map the geography of intergenerational mobility of education for 52 Latin American regions, as well as its evolution over time. Then, through a new weighting procedure that considers the participation of cohorts to the economy in each year, we estimate the impact of changes in mobility on regional economic indicators, such as income per capita, poverty, child mortality, and luminosity. Our findings show that increasing social mobility had a significant and robust effect on the development of Latin American regions.
    Keywords: Intergenerational Mobility,Equality of Opportunity,Development,Growth,Latin America
    JEL: D63 I24 J62 O15
    Date: 2021
  25. By: Sergey A. Korotaev (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Elena N. Gasiukova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Ovsey I. Shkaratan (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Elena N. Danilova (Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences)
    Abstract: There are a number of studies in the literature investigating the relationship between leisure participation and place of residence. However, scant attention has been given to the impact of the spatial trajectory – or relocating – on individuals’ leisure activities. The authors of this paper attempt to close this gap by examining spatial mobility as an instance of social mobility. The empirical analysis draws upon data from the 2016 Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, the sample includes 9251 respondents. The leisure participation variable was obtained through the cluster analysis. Sobel’s Diagonal Reference Model was utilized to evaluate the relative impact of the locality of destination and the locality of origin on the likelihood of belonging to a certain cluster. A crucial result of the study is the empirical confirmation that the spatial trajectory – the place of residence of the parental family, the location where higher education is obtained, the current place of residence – has a significant effect on individuals’ current leisure participation. Thus, the spatial trajectory may be viewed as another source of social distinction that researchers studying leisure activities have not yet focused on.
    Keywords: spatial mobility, leisure practices, diagonal reference model, distinction, place of residence
    JEL: Z19
    Date: 2021
  26. By: Raouf Boucekkine; Giorgio Fabbri; Salvatore Federico; Fausto Gozzi
    Abstract: We characterize the shape of spatial externalities in a continuous time and space differential game with transboundary pollution. We posit a realistic spatiotemporal law of motion for pollution (diffusion and advection), and tackle spatiotemporal non-cooperative (and cooperative) differential games. Precisely, we consider a circle partitioned into several states where a local authority decides autonomously about its investment, production and depollution strategies over time knowing that investment/production generates pollution, and pollution is transboundary. The time horizon is infinite. We allow for a rich set of geographic heterogeneities across states. We solve analytically the induced non-cooperative differential game and characterize its long-term spatial distributions. In particular, we prove that there exist a Perfect Markov Equilibrium, unique among the class of the affine feedbacks. We further provide with a full exploration of the free riding problem and the associated border effect.
    Date: 2021–12
  27. By: Kelly, Jane (Central Bank of Ireland); Lyons, Paul (Central Bank of Ireland); McCann, Fergal (Central Bank of Ireland); O'Brien, Eoghan (Central Bank of Ireland)
    Abstract: There are currently an estimated twenty nine and a halfthousand primary dwelling mortgage loans in arrears of more than one year in Ireland. These unresolved cases are a legacy of the pre-COVID era, with most arrears beginning during the previous crisis. It remains a priority for the affected borrowers, lending institutions, and the wider Irish financial system that policy solutions are found for these cases. The appropriate solutions will vary depending on the financial circumstances and level of engagement of borrowers. In this Note we use granular information on a sample of long term mortgage arrears borrowers to highlight the financial vulnerability and repayment capacity among borrowers who have previously engaged with a retail bank. We link these findings to the suite of potentially available solutions for distressed debt resolution that might be required. A cohort-based approach will be required, with no “one-size-fits-all” solution likely, given the variation in financial situation across the sample.
    Date: 2021–07
  28. By: Knut Are Aastveit; Ragnar Enger Juelsrud; Ella Getz Wold
    Abstract: We evaluate the impact of mortgage regulation on child and parent household balance sheets, highlighting important trade-offs in terms of financial vulnerability. Using Norwegian tax data, we show that loan-to-value caps reduce house purchase probabilities, debt and interest expenses – thereby improving household solvency. Moreover, parents of first-time buyers also reduce their debt uptake, suggesting that concerns about regulatory arbitrage are unwarranted. However, the higher downpayment requirement also leads to a persistent deterioration of household liquidity. We show that this reduction in liquid buffers coincides with larger house sale propensities given unemployment, as households become more vulnerable to adverse income shocks.
    Keywords: Household leverage, Financial regulation, Macroprudential policy, Mortgage markets
    Date: 2021–12
  29. By: Bindler, Anna (University of Gothenburg); Hjalmarsson, Randi (University of Gothenburg); Ketel, Nadine (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Mitrut, Andreea (University of Gothenburg)
    Abstract: Many rights are conferred on Dutch youth at ages 16 and 18. Using national register data for all reported victimizations, we find sharp and discontinuous increases in victimization rates at these ages: about 13% for both genders at 16 and 9% (15%) for males (females) at 18. These results are comparable across subsamples (based on socio-economic and neighborhood characteristics) with different baseline victimization risks. We assess potential mechanisms using data on offense location, cross-cohort variation in the minimum legal drinking age driven by a 2014 reform, and survey data of alcohol/drug consumption and mobility behaviors. We conclude that the bundle of access to weak alcohol, bars/clubs and smoking increases victimization at 16 and that age 18 rights (hard alcohol, marijuana coffee shops) exacerbate this risk; vehicle access does not play an important role. Finally, we do not find systematic spillover effects onto individuals who have not yet received these rights.
    Keywords: victimization, crime, youth, youth protection laws, alcohol, inequality, RDD
    JEL: K42 K36 J13 I12 I14
    Date: 2021–12
  30. By: Kota Ogasawara
    Abstract: This study investigates the impact of polymetallic metal and coal mining on the regional economy in industrializing Japan. By linking the location information of mines with registration- and census-based statistics, I found that mines increased the local population via internal migration. This led to a local, structural shift from the agricultural sector to the mining, manufacturing, and service sectors, depending on sex. Furthermore, it decreased female labor force participation. These effects are heterogeneous with respect to the type of mines; coal mines are more likely to have stronger effects than polymetallic mines. Although coal mines increase the risk of fetal and infant deaths, gold and silver mines improve the health status of infants.
    Date: 2021–12
  31. By: Dafne Accoroni; Eunice Cascant; Lauren Dixon; Noémie Dominguez (iaelyon School of Management, Université Jean Moulin Lyon 3, Magellan); Emily Mugel; Catherine Mercier-Suissa (iaelyon School of Management, Université Jean Moulin Lyon 3, Magellan); Maité Pinchon; Nancy Ottaviano
    Date: 2021–11–09
  32. By: Melisso Boschi; Valeria Bevilacqua; Carla Di Falco
    Abstract: We quantify the effect of property tax reforms implemented in Italy in 1993 and 2012 on property prices. We focus on the Italian house prices index using the Interrupted Time Series Analysis (ITSA), a statistical approach that proves to be useful when a counterfactual scenario for policy evaluation is difficult to create due to the universality of intervention. The hypothesis under test is that the two reforms caused a statistically significant discontinuity in the house prices index dynamics. We estimate two alternative versions of the ITSA model ─ one including only Italy, and another one including also similar European countries as control terms (France, Germany, Spain, and the UK). Property tax changes effects are reform-specific. As for the 1993 reform effect on real house prices, we estimate a 13-14 percent decrease of the mean level and a 1 percentage points (p.p.) increase of the rate of growth. As for the 2012 reform, depending on the model chosen, we estimate a 3-5 percent decrease, or a 4 percent increase, in level, as well as a 3-4 p.p. decrease, or a 2 p.p. increase, of the rate of growth.
    Keywords: Policy effect evaluation, Property tax, House prices, Property tax capitalization, Tax reforms, Interrupted Time Series Analysis
    JEL: C32 H20 R21 R31
    Date: 2021–09
  33. By: Barbara Harris; Lindsay Fox
    Abstract: This brief presents the results of a prospective descriptive analysis of the student characteristics and mathematics achievement at the three sites that replicated Wayne State University’s Math Corps, a summer camp for middle school students.
    Keywords: Math, Education, National Science Foundation, Summer Camp
  34. By: Mikula, Stepan (Masaryk University); Pytlikova, Mariola (CERGE-EI)
    Abstract: This paper examines the causal effects of air pollution on migration by exploiting a natural experiment in which desulfurization technologies were rapidly implemented in coal-burning power plants in the Czech Republic in the 1990s. These technologies substantially decreased air pollution levels without per se affecting economic activity. The results based on a difference-in-differences estimator imply that improvements in air quality reduced emigration from previously heavily polluted municipalities by 24%. We find that the effect of air pollution on emigration tended to be larger in municipalities with weaker social capital and fewer man-made amenities. Thus, our results imply that strengthening social capital and investing in better facilities and public services could partially mitigate depopulation responses to air pollution. Finally, we look at heterogeneous migratory responses to air pollution by education and age and find some evidence that the more educated tend to be more sensitive to air pollution in their settlement behavior.
    Keywords: natural experiment, migration, air pollution
    JEL: Q53 J61 O15
    Date: 2021–11
  35. By: Auerbach, Alan (University of California, Berkeley); Gorodnichenko, Yuriy (University of California, Berkeley); McCrory, Peter B. (J.P. Morgan Chase); Murphy, Daniel (University of Virginia)
    Abstract: In response to the record-breaking COVID19 recession, many governments have adopted unprecedented fiscal stimuli. While countercyclical fiscal policy is effective in fighting conventional recessions, little is known about the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the current environment with widespread shelter-in-place ("lockdown") policies and the associated considerable limits on economic activity. Using detailed regional variation in economic conditions, lockdown policies, and U.S. government spending, we document that the effects of government spending were stronger during the peak of the pandemic recession, but only in cities that were not subject to strong stay-at-home orders. We examine mechanisms that can account for our evidence and place our findings in the context of other recent evidence from microdata.
    Keywords: COVID-19, fiscal multiplier, stimulus
    JEL: E62 E32 H3
    Date: 2021–11
  36. By: Miglo, Anton
    Abstract: This article analyzes the patterns of Fintech development in Greater Manchester, UK. Manchester is often called a northern capital of Fintech. We analyze different subsectors of FinTech and find that such sectors as payments, fintech loans, debt-based, reward-based and real-estate-based crowdfunding, big data analytics, data security, insurtech and regtech are the most growing areas. We also compare the Fintech structure in Manchester with that in London and other major cities in the UK and identify similarities and differences.
    Keywords: FinTech, cryptocurrencies, digital finance, crowdfunding, Fintech in Manchester, data security
    JEL: G00 G10 G32 O33
    Date: 2022–01–02
  37. By: John Iceland; Claire Kovach
    Abstract: U.S. households face a number of economic challenges that affect their well-being. In this analysis we focus on the extent to which neighborhood economic conditions contribute to hardship. Specifically, using data from the 2008 and 2014 Survey of Income and Program Participation panel surveys and logistic regression, we analyze the extent to which neighborhoods income levels affect the likelihood of experiencing seven types of hardships, including trouble paying bills, medical need, food insecurity, housing hardship, ownership of basic consumer durables, neighborhood problems, and fear of crime. We find strong bivariate relationships between neighborhood income and all hardships, but for most hardships these are explained by other household characteristics, such as household income and education. However, neighborhood income retains a strong association with two hardships in particular even when controlling for a variety of other household characteristics: neighborhood conditions (such as the presence of trash and litter) and fear of crime. Our study highlights the importance of examining multiple measures when assessing well-being, and our findings are consistent with the notion that collective socialization and community-level structural features affect the likelihood that households experience deleterious neighborhood conditions and a fear of crime.
    Keywords: material hardship, poverty, neighborhood income
    Date: 2022–01
  38. By: Sara B. Heller; Judd B. Kessler
    Abstract: Youth employment has been near historic lows in recent years, and racial gaps persist. This paper tests whether information frictions limit young people's labor market success with a field experiment involving over 43,000 youth in New York City. We build software that allows employers to quickly and easily produce letters of recommendation for randomly selected youth who worked under their supervision during a summer youth employment program. We then send these letters to nearly 9,000 youth over two years. Being sent a letter generates a 3 percentage point (4.5 percent) increase in employment the following year, with both employment and earnings increases persisting over the two-year follow-up period. By posting our own job advertisement, we document that while treatment youth do use the letters in applications, there is no evidence of other supply-side responses (i.e., no increased job search, motivation, or confidence); effects appear to be driven by the demand side. Labor market benefits accrue primarily to racial and ethnic minorities, suggesting frictions may contribute to racial employment gaps. But improved employment may also hamper on-time high school graduation. Additional evidence indicates that letters help improve job match quality. Results suggest that expanding the availability of credible signals about young workers—particularly for those not on the margin of graduating high school—could improve the efficiency of the youth labor market.
    JEL: C93 I21 J2 J48
    Date: 2021–12
  39. By: Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen; Rui C. Mano
    Abstract: We quantify the effect of vaccinations on economic activity in the United States using weekly county level data covering the period end-2020 to mid-2021. Causal effects are identified through instrumenting vaccination rates with county-level pharmacy density interacted with state-level vaccine allocations, and by including county and state-time fixed effects to control for unobserved factors. We find that vaccinations are a significant and substantial shot in the arm of the economy. Specifically, an increase of initiated vaccination rates of 1 percentage point increases weekly consumer spending by 0.6 percent and reduces weekly initial unemployment claims by 0.004 percentage points of the 2019 labor force. Vaccinations also increase workrelated mobility. Importantly, we find that the effects vary with county characteristics. Specifically, urban counties and counties with initially worse socioeconomic conditions and lower education levels exhibit larger effects of vaccinations. This way, vaccinations are also a fair shot in the arm for the economy, which highlights that equitable distribution of vaccines is important to reduce inequality. Our results are specific to the United States, but hold important lessons for the expected economic impact of vaccinations in other countries.
    Keywords: COVID-19; pandemics; vaccinations.
    Date: 2021–12–03
  40. By: Noémie Dominguez (Université de Lyon, UJML3, IAE Lyon, Magellan ou University of Lyon, UJML3, iaelyon School of Management, Magellan); Patricia Loncle (EHESP - École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP]); Emanuelle Maunaye (EHESP - École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP]); Eunice Cascant (Université de Lyon, UJML3, IAE Lyon, Magellan ou University of Lyon, UJML3, iaelyon School of Management, Magellan); Catherine Mercier-Suissa (Université de Lyon, UJML3, IAE Lyon, Magellan ou University of Lyon, UJML3, iaelyon School of Management, Magellan); Emily Mugel (Quatorze); Maité Pinchon (Quatorze); Nancy Ottaviano (Quatorze)
    Date: 2021–09–23
  41. By: Samuel Bazzi; Lisa Cameron; Simone G. Schaner; Firman Witoelar
    Abstract: Job seekers often face substantial information frictions related to potential job quality. This is especially true in international labor markets, where intermediaries match prospective migrants with employers abroad. We conducted a randomized trial in Indonesia to explore how information about intermediary quality shapes migration choices and outcomes. Information reduces the migration rate, lowering use of low-quality intermediaries. However, workers who migrate receive better pre-departure preparation and have higher-quality job experiences abroad, despite no change in occupation or destination. Information does not change intentions to migrate or beliefs about the return to migration or intermediary quality. Nor does selection explain the improved outcomes for workers who choose to migrate with the information. Together, our findings are consistent with an increase in the option value of search: with better ability to differentiate offer quality, workers become choosier and ultimately have better migration experiences. This offers a new perspective on the importance of information and matching frictions in global labor markets.
    JEL: D83 F22 L15 O15
    Date: 2021–12
  42. By: Russell Cole; Menbere Shiferaw; Cay Bradley
    Abstract: This study will be the first rigorous impact evaluation of Colorado’s Pathways comprehensive service model.
    Keywords: abuse, neglect, adoption and foster care, youth services, child welfare, foster care, housing, runaway and homeless youth
  43. By: Arman Khachiyan; Anthony Thomas; Huye Zhou; Gordon H. Hanson; Alex Cloninger; Tajana Rosing; Amit Khandelwal
    Abstract: We apply deep learning to daytime satellite imagery to predict changes in income and population at high spatial resolution in US data. For grid cells with lateral dimensions of 1.2km and 2.4km (where the average US county has dimension of 55.6km), our model predictions achieve R2 values of 0.85 to 0.91 in levels, which far exceed the accuracy of existing models, and 0.32 to 0.46 in decadal changes, which have no counterpart in the literature and are 3-4 times larger than for commonly used nighttime lights. Our network has wide application for analyzing localized shocks.
    JEL: R0
    Date: 2021–12
  44. By: Giorgio Chiovelli; Stelios Michalopoulos; Elias Papaioannou; Sandra Sequeira
    Abstract: We examine the impact of conflict-driven displacement on human capital. We focus on the Mozambican civil war (1977–1992), during which more than four million civilians fled to the countryside, cities, and refugee camps and settlements in neighboring countries. We leverage the full post-war census to compare siblings separated during the war, using those who stayed behind as a counterfactual to one’s displacement path. Uprooted children register higher investments in education. Second, we quantify the relative importance of place-based and displacement effects. The latter increases education and decreases attachment to agriculture by the same rate as being exposed to an environment approximately one standard deviation more developed than one’s birthplace. Third, we conduct a survey in Nampula, whose population doubled during the civil war. Those who fled to the city have significantly higher education than their siblings who remained in the countryside and they converged to the levels of schooling of non-mover urban-born individuals. However, those displaced exhibit significantly lower social/civic capital and have worse mental health, even three decades after the war. These findings reveal that displacement shocks can trigger human capital investments, breaking links with subsistence agriculture, but at the cost of long-lasting, social, and psychological traumas.
    JEL: J10 J15 J20 O1 O15 O18
    Date: 2021–12
  45. By: Haji Ali Beigi, Maryam
    Abstract: Purpose: This paper analyzes the association of searching diversely as a strategy to capture external knowledge and that of competition intensity with innovation in logistics. Secondly it studies how these associations interact by examining whether they intensify or mitigate one another when jointly occur. Thirdly, it is explored whether correlations of search diversity, competition intensity and their interaction effect with logistics innovation demonstrate differences in their strength depending on logistics innovativeness of target industries. Design/methodology/approach: By discriminating between diversifying and expanding search scope, a new search mode is identified which is more precise in examining diversity of acquired external knowledge in comparison to search breadth. External search diversity is formulated based on a classification of external sources according to similarities in their knowledge supply. Quantile regression is applied for the purpose of this study due to its ability in estimating different models in different quantiles of the response variable.
    Keywords: logistics innovation,search diversity,competition intensity,knowledge management
    Date: 2021
  46. By: Haji Ali Beigi, Maryam
    Abstract: There are different determinants for organizational innovation. By taking an encompassing look into dynamics of organizational innovation, this paper examines how organizational innovation is an outcome to interaction of knowledge search strategies and underlying market conditions. Although the role of knowledge management capabilities on organizational innovation have been studied in literature but the effects of external knowledge strategies as an external KM enabler on different parts of organizational innovation has not been covered. To fill that gap and to capture deep dynamics of organizational innovation this paper analyzes the relationship between external knowledge diversity and organizational innovation under the influence of competition intensity and uncertain demand trends which is the second contribution of this study. It is demonstrated that the effects of competition intensity or uncertain demand trends on organizational innovation are diminished through their interactive manifestation with knowledge search diversity. By applying quantile regression in different levels, we additionally indicate that such diminishing effect varies among different industries depending on their organizational innovation intensity as the third novel analytics of this paper.
    Keywords: Organizational innovation,External Search diversity,Competition intensity,Uncertaindemand
    Date: 2021
  47. By: Gaffney, Edward (Central Bank of Ireland); McCann, Fergal (Central Bank of Ireland); Stroebel, Johannes (Stern School of Business, New York University)
    Abstract: We discuss several features of the economic and institutional environment that are important for determining the design of household debt relief programs in response to aggregate economic shocks. For example, we describe how such program features should depend on the distribution of home equity in the population, the costs of participation to borrowers and lenders, as well as on whether the shocks are temporary or permanent in nature. We analyse the Irish response to the initial COVID-19 shock—which focussed on a broad extension of temporary payment breaks to mortgage borrowers—in light of these factors. Finally, we discuss potential features of adjusted mortgage contracts that may embed some of the benefits of the COVID-19 response in future events without the need for policymaker coordination.
    Date: 2021–07
  48. By: Nicolas Koch (Mercator Research Center for Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), EUREF Campus 19, 10829 Berlin, Germany; Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Schaumburg-Lippe-Straße 5–9, 53113 Bonn, Germany); Nolan Ritter (Mercator Research Center for Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), EUREF Campus 19, 10829 Berlin, Germany); Alexander Rohlf (Mercator Research Center for Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), EUREF Campus 19, 10829 Berlin, Germany); Francesco Scarazzato (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)
    Abstract: This paper investigates whether the world’s most mature electric vehicle (EV) market in Norway has overcome critical mass constraints and can achieve sustainable long-term equilibria without subsidies. We estimate a structural model that allows for multiple equilibria emerging from the interdependence between EV demand and charging station supply. We first estimate the resulting indirect network effects using an instrumental variable approach. Then, we simulate long-term market outcomes for each of the 422 Norwegian municipalities. We find that almost 20% of all municipalities faced critical mass constraints in the earliest stage of the market. Half of them are effectively trapped in a zero-adoption equilibrium. However, in the maturing market, all municipalities have passed critical mass. Overall, about 60% of the Norwegian population now lives in municipalities with a high-adoption equilibrium, even if subsidies were removed. This suggests that critical mass constraints do no longer justify the provision of subsidies.
    Keywords: electric vehicles, network externalities, critical mass, subsidies
    JEL: H23 L62 Q48 Q58 R48
    Date: 2021–12
  49. By: Berger, Michael; Czypionka, Thomas
    Abstract: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is a popular yet cost-intensive diagnostic measure whose strengths compared to other medical imaging technologies have led to increased application. But the benefits of aggressive testing are doubtful. The comparatively high MRI usage in Austria in combination with substantial regional variation has hence become a concern for its policy makers. We use a set of routine healthcare data on outpatient MRI service consumption of Austrian patients between Q3-2015 and Q2-2016 on the district level to investigate the extent of medical practice variation in a two-step statistical analysis combining multivariate regression models and Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition. District-level MRI exam rates per 1.000 inhabitants range from 52.38 to 128.69. Controlling for a set of regional characteristics in a multivariate regression model, we identify payer autonomy in regulating access to MRI scans as the biggest contributor to regional variation. Nevertheless, the statistical decomposition highlights that more than 70% of the regional variation remains unexplained by differences between the observable district characteristics. In the absence of epidemiological explanations, the substantial regional medical practice variation calls the efficiency of resource deployment into question.
    Keywords: blinder–Oaxaca decomposition; health policy; healthcare service utilization; magnetic resonance imaging; medical practice variation; Open access funding
    JEL: C33 H51 I18
    Date: 2021–08–01
  50. By: Görlitz, Katja (Hochschule der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (HdBA)); Sels, Tim (Freie Universität Berlin)
    Abstract: This study analyzes how individuals evaluate their peers' performance in a high stakes tournament in response to being randomly assigned to an age homogenous or heterogeneous group using data from two TV shows. The data also allows us to explore superior evaluations because it contains objective ratings from an independent expert. Additionally, this study investigates how age diverse groups affect individual performance in professional golf tournaments. The results show that peer and superior evaluations as well as individual performance are lower in age diverse groups. Further evidence suggests that these effects occur in the short run, but fade away once group members have gotten to know each other.
    Keywords: age diversity, peer evaluation, superior evaluation, performance
    JEL: J14 M12 M54
    Date: 2021–12
  51. By: Berta, Paolo (Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca); Bratti, Massimiliano (University of Milan); Fiorio, Carlo V. (University of Milan); Pisoni, Enrico (European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC)); Verzillo, Stefano (European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC))
    Abstract: Does the organisation of healthcare systems affect health outcomes in a pandemic situation? To answer this question, we analysed the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic by focusing on mortality rate outcomes and exploited the heterogeneity of the healthcare organisational models among Italian regions, which makes Italy an ideal "laboratory". Within a common national healthcare system, Italian regions are allowed large autonomy to organise themselves as mixed-markets based on choice and competition, network or centralised leadership models, each delivering different responses to the Covid-19 emergency. Exploiting the discontinuity of healthcare organisational models across the Italian regional borders around Lombardy — the region that most convincingly embraced the mixed-market model fostering competition among health service providers — we applied a difference in geographic regression discontinuity design (DiD-GRDD) to compare mortality rates in 2020 of Lombardy's municipalities with that of neighbouring municipalities in other regions and also exploited the pre-crisis period (2017-2019). Our analysis shows that mortality rates in Lombardy during the first wave were higher by 1-2 percentage points among the population of residents aged 80 years or more, compared to the past, as opposed to regions adopting different organisational models. The mortality rate differential disappeared during the second wave following the implementation of a national policy based on risk zones, limiting mobility and taking stock of the experience developed during the first wave. Finally, by investigating the channels causing higher mortality during the first wave, we show that the role of organisational model differences vanishes, as differential mortality is mostly explained by the decision of the Lombardy regional government to use care homes for hosting Covid-19 patients and reduce the excess demand on the hospital system.
    Keywords: COVID-19, mortality, administrative borders, regions, Italy
    JEL: I10 H12
    Date: 2021–12
  52. By: Ozan Isler; Simon Gaechter
    Abstract: Peer observation can influence social norm perceptions as well as behavior in various moral domains, but is the tendency to be influenced by and conform with peers domain-general? In an online experiment (N = 815), we studied peer effects in honesty and cooperation and tested the individual-level links between these two moral domains. Participants completed both honesty and cooperation tasks after observing their peers. Consistent with the literature, separate analysis of the two domains indicated both negative and positive peer influences in honesty and in cooperation, with negative influences tending to be stronger. Behavioral tests linking the two domains at the individual-level revealed that cooperative participants were also more honest—a link that was associated with low Machiavellianism scores. While standard personality trait measures showed no links between the two domains in the tendency to conform, individual-level tests suggested that conformism is a domain-general behavioral trait observed across honesty and cooperation. Based on these findings, we discuss the potential of and difficulties in using peer observation to influence social norm compliance as an avenue for further research and as a tool to promote social welfare.
    Keywords: honesty, cooperation, peer influence, conformism, social norms
    JEL: C91
    Date: 2021
  53. By: Kelly, Jane (Central Bank of Ireland); Lyons, Paul (Central Bank of Ireland); O'Brien, Eoghan (Central Bank of Ireland); Rice, Jonathan (Central Bank of Ireland)
    Abstract: In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, credit institutions in Ireland provided payment breaks to alleviate borrower’s short-term liquidity constraints. Some borrowers received just one payment break, while others received an extension to their original payment break. The differentiating characteristics of these borrower groups, along with the financial position of those who required further support upon expiration of their payment break, is the focus of this Note. Borrowers with a payment break extension were more likely to have existing or historic forbearance measures in place, were less likely to be in long-term arrears (>1 year) and were more likely to have had their employment prospects negatively affected by the pandemic. The Note further identifies the cohort of borrowers that required a restructuring solution following the expiration of their payment break. Reduced monthly repayments or deferred payment options were the preferred restructuring types offered to the cohort of borrowers upon expiry of their payment break.
    Date: 2021–07
  54. By: Tomohiro HIRANO; Joseph E. Stiglitz
    Abstract: This paper examines the global macro-dynamics of a dynamic model with capital and land with rational expectations. Through the interactions between capital accumulation and land prices, the economy experiences phase transitions, endogenously moving from back and forth from situations with unique and multiple momentary equilibria. Consequently, there can be a plethora of rational expectation equilibria trajectories, without any smooth convergence properties, neither converging to a steady state or even to a limit cycle—what we call wobbly macro-dynamics. The price of land and other key macro variables (wages, interest rates, output, consumption, wealth, capital stock) endogenously fluctuate within a well-identified range with boom-bust cycles repeatedly. The key disturbance to the economy is endogenous; even with rational expectations, there can be real estate booms, with resource allocation deteriorating as land prices increase, crowding out productive investments; but such unsustainable land price booms inevitably are followed by a crash. We analyze the set of parameter values for which wobbly fluctuations occur, show that with some parameter values, the only r.e. trajectories involve such wobbly dynamics, demonstrate how changes in parameters affect global macro-dynamics, and show how policy interventions can affect stability and social welfare.
    Date: 2021–12
  55. By: Shingo Takahashi (Graduate School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Hiroshima University); Ana Maria Takahashi (Kyoto University of Foreign Studies, Department of Global Studies, Faculty of Global Engagement / Research Fellow, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University)
    Abstract: We examine two economic self-interest hypotheses of the determinants of public attitudes towards immigrants: (1) labor market hypothesis, which states that the employment and wage impacts of immigration determine public attitudes and (2) the welfare state hypoth- esis, which states that natives negatively perceive immigrants for fear of straining the country’s welfare budget. The first hypothesis predicts that natives’ education will af- fect pro-immigrant attitudes more positively when the immigrants are from lower-income countries. The second hypothesis predicts that natives’ income will affect the pro-immigrant attitudes more negatively when the immigrants are from lower-income countries. We use the Japanese General Social Survey, which asks respondents’ tolerance toward immigrants from different countries, allowing us to remove the unobserved individual characteristics in a fixed effect estimation. Our results show no difference in education and income effects on pro-immigrant attitudes regardless of whether immigrants are from high- or low-income countries. We conclude that economic self-interests do not explain Japanese public attitudes towards immigrants. We discuss policy implications on how to improve public attitudes to- wards immigrants.
    Date: 2022–01
  56. By: Haji Ali Beigi, Maryam
    Abstract: This study gives a new identity to a knowledge search mode named search diversity and investigates how it is more rigorous in capturing knowledge heterogeneity in comparison to general assessment of search breadth. By distinguishing between diversifying and expanding search domain as building blocks of broadening search scope, this study proposes a hybrid search strategy when it comes to analysis of the link between external search and innovation performance. While a positive trend is found for search breadth and innovation in this review, search diversity indicates a curvilinear pattern but with a steeper positivity than search breadth's. A prerequisite extension of this paper is to utilize a clustering method among different external sources acting as a reference to codify a diversity index for measuring the new search scheme. Also, the effect of usage of each cluster on innovation is empirically illustrated. This paper suggests that the optimal hybrid search outlook in respect to innovation is built up by initially increasing diversity in search up to the downturn point and then shifting into usage of same source clusters without helping diversity. This analysis provides practitioners with additional insights for managing external sourcing strategies and leveraging innovativeness.
    Keywords: Search breadth,External search diversity,Search scope,Knowledge heterogeneity,Source clustering,Innovation performance
    Date: 2021
  57. By: Rosalind Keith; Rebekah Selekman; Andrew Burwick
    Abstract: The Pathways implementation study will address two broad objectives.
    Keywords: abuse, neglect, adoption and foster care, youth services, child welfare, foster care, housing, runaway and homeless youth
  58. By: Dorn, David (University of Zurich); Levell, Peter (Institute for Fiscal Studies, London)
    Abstract: The share of low-income countries in global exports nearly tripled between 1990 and 2015, driven largely by the rapid emergence of China as an exporting powerhouse. While research in economics had long acknowledged that trade with lower-income countries could raise income inequality in Europe and the US, empirical estimates indicated only a modest contribution of trade to growing national skill premia. However, if workers are not highly mobile across firms, industries and locations, then the unequal impacts of trade can manifest along different margins. Recent evidence from countries across Europe and the US shows that growing import competition from China differentially reduced earnings and employment rates for workers in more trade-exposed industries, and for the residents of more trade-exposed geographic regions. These adverse impacts were often largest for lower-skilled individuals. We show that domestic manufacturing employment declined much more in countries that saw a large growth of net imports from China (such as the UK and the US), than in countries that maintained relatively balanced trade with China (such as Germany and Switzerland). Drawing on a new analysis for the UK, we further show that trade with China contributed to job loss in manufacturing, but also to substantial declines in consumer prices. However, while the adverse labour market impacts were concentrated on specific groups of workers and regions, the consumer benefits from trade were widely dispersed in the population, and appear similarly large for high-income and low-income households. Globalisation has thus created pockets of losers, and recent evidence indicates that in addition to financial losses, residents of regions with greater exposure to import competition also suffer from higher crime rates, a deterioration of health outcomes, and a dissolution of traditional family structures. We argue that new import tariffs such as those imposed by the US in 2018 and 2019 are unlikely to help the losers from globalisation. Instead, displaced workers may be better supported by a combination of transfers to avert financial hardship, skills training that facilitate reintegration into the labour market, and place-based policies that stimulate job creation in depressed locations.
    Keywords: trade, globalisation, inequality, employment, wages, consumer prices, public policy
    JEL: E31 F13 F14 F16 F23 I14 I38 J21 J23 J31 J61 J62 R11
    Date: 2021–12
  59. By: Jiafeng Chen
    Abstract: We study identification and estimation of treatment effects in common school choice settings, under unrestricted heterogeneity in individual potential outcomes. We propose two notions of identification, corresponding to design- and sampling-based uncertainty, respectively. We characterize the set of causal estimands that are identified for a large variety of school choice mechanisms, including ones that feature both random and non-random tie-breaking; we discuss their policy implications. We also study the asymptotic behavior of nonparametric estimators for these causal estimands. Lastly, we connect our approach to the propensity score approach proposed in Abdulkadiroglu, Angrist, Narita, and Pathak (2017a, forthcoming), and derive the implicit estimands of the latter approach, under fully heterogeneous treatment effects.
    Date: 2021–12
  60. By: Bhalotra, Sonia (University of Warwick, CEPR, IEA, CAGE and IZA); Brito, Emilia (Brown University, Department of Economics); Clarke, Damian (University of Chile, Department of Economics, MIPP and IZA); Larroulet, Pilar (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Instituto de Sociología); Pino, Francisco (University of Chile, Department of Economics and IZA)
    Abstract: We leverage staggered implementation of lockdown across Chile’s 346 municipalities, identifying dynamic impacts on domestic violence (DV). Using administrative data, we find lockdown imposition increases indicators of DV-related distress, while decreasing DV reports to the police. We identify male job loss as a mechanism driving distress, and female job loss as driving decreased reporting. Stimulus payments to poor households act on both margins, their impacts partially differentiated by lockdown status. Once lockdown is lifted, police reports surge but we see a ratchet effect in distress. Our findings accentuate the controversy around welfare impacts of lockdown mandates.
    Keywords: domestic violence ; social safety net ; public health ; COVID-19 JEL Classification: J12 ; I38 ; H53
    Date: 2021
  61. By: Gonzalez, Felipe; Prem, Mounu
    Abstract: We study the protest behavior of teenagers linked to a student killed by a stray bullet coming from a policeman in Chile. We use administrative data to follow the schoolmates of the victim and those living nearby the shooting in hundreds of protest and non-protest days. We find that police violence causes lower protest participation in street rallies but more adherence to test boycotts. These effects appear among schoolmates of the victim and not among students living nearby the killing. Negative educational consequences suffered by the schoolmates combined with previous results suggest that psychological mechanisms are a plausible explanation.
    Date: 2022–01–14
  62. By: Piyush Panigrahi
    Abstract: Larger Indian firms selling inputs to other firms tend to have more customers, tend to be used more intensively by their customers, and tend to have larger customers. Motivated by these regularities, I propose a novel empirical model of trade featuring endogenous formation of input-output linkages between spatially distant firms. The empirical model consists of (a) a theoretical framework that accommodates first order features of firm-to-firm network data, (b) a maximum likelihood framework for structural estimation that is uninhibited by the scale of data, and (c) a procedure for counterfactual analysis that speaks to the effects of micro- and macroshocks to the spatial network economy. In the model, firms with low production costs end up larger because they find more customers, are used more intensively by their customers and in turn their customers lower production costs and end up larger themselves. The model is estimated using novel micro-data on firm-to-firm sales between Indian firms. The estimated model implies that a 10% decline in inter-state border frictions in India leads to welfare gains ranging between 1% and 8% across districts. Moreover, over half of the variation in changes in firms’ sales to other firms can be explained by endogenous changes in the network structure.
    Keywords: production networks, international trade, economic geography
    JEL: F11 F12 D24 C67 C68 L11 O11 O12 R12 R15 D85
    Date: 2021
  63. By: Basu, Arnab K. (Cornell University); Chau, Nancy H. (Cornell University); Park, Brian (Cornell University)
    Abstract: Canonical models of migration feature border enforcement as a strategy to contain undocumented immigration by effectively exacting a mobility cost. This paper revisits the role of border enforcement policy in a task-based model of the labor market where employers simultaneously hire circular migrants to take temporary tasks at low wages, in addition to permanent and native workers who perform complementary tasks at the efficiency wage. We show that stricter border enforcement is effectively a tax on temporary employment, and as such it incentivizes the reallocation of work along the task spectrum. Employers’ dependence on low-wage transient work force diminishes, while more migrants prefer permanent migration, with labor market tightness consequences that favor both native and migrant workers. We explore the empirical implication of this finding, by investigating the pattern of spousal reunion among Mexican agricultural workers in the United States subsequent to major border enforcement reforms in the 1990’s.
    Keywords: labor shortages, family migration, circular migration, border enforcement
    JEL: F22 J61 J68
    Date: 2021–11
  64. By: Laureti, Lucio; Costantiello, Alberto; Matarrese, Marco Maria; Leogrande, Angelo
    Abstract: In this article we evaluate the determinants of the Employment in Innovative Enterprises in Europe. We use data from the European Innovation Scoreboard of the European Commission for 36 countries in the period 2000-2019 with Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Panel Data with Random Effects, Dynamic Panel, WLS and Pooled OLS. We found that the “Employment in Innovative Enterprises in Europe” is positively associated with “Broadband Penetration in Europe”, “Foreign Controlled Enterprises Share of Value Added”, “Innovation Index”, “Medium and High-Tech Product Exports” and negatively associated to “Basic School Entrepreneurial Education and Training”, “International Co-Publications”, and “Marketing or Organizational Innovators”. Secondly, we perform a cluster analysis with the k-Means algorithm optimized with the Silhouette Coefficient and we found the presence of four different clusters. Finally, we perform a comparison among eight different machine learning algorithms to predict the level of “Employment in Innovative Enterprises” in Europe and we found that the Linear Regression is the best predictor.
    Keywords: Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives; Management of Technological Innovation and R&D; Technological Change: Choices and Consequences • Diffusion Processes; Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital.
    JEL: O30 O31 O32 O33 O34
    Date: 2022–01–01
  65. By: Munemo, Jonathan
    Abstract: As Chinese loans to Africa have been on an upward trajectory for more than a decade, there are questions about the economic consequences that large scale borrowing from China has on African economies. Jonathan Munemo investigates the impact these rising loans have on entrepreneurship and finds that African countries with a higher percentage of economic infrastructure loans have greater entrepreneurship in the form of new business startups.
    Date: 2021
  66. By: Roxana Guti\'errez-Romero
    Abstract: Despite the extensive literature on civil conflict, little is known about the medium- and long-term effects of electoral violence on young children and adolescents. This paper shows that electoral violence of low scale yet recursive nature has a detrimental effect on the height of children and adolescents of affected households. Our identification strategy uses the variation of electoral violence across time and space in Kenya during 1992-2013. We find that infants and adolescents exposed to electoral violence are shorter as adults if compared to similar people not exposed to violence during their growing age. We also find inter-generation effects as the children of the victims of electoral violence, particularly boys, also have reduced height-for-age. Higher food prices and changes in diet experienced during outbreaks of violence are important mechanisms. No impact is found on the educational attainment of school-aged pupils as electoral violence has been concentrated during the school holidays.
    Date: 2021–12
  67. By: Joop Age Harm Adema; Cevat Giray Aksoy; Panu Poutvaara
    Abstract: How does mobile internet access affect the desire to emigrate and migration plans? To answer this question, we combine survey data on more than 600,000 individuals from 110 countries with data on worldwide 3G mobile internet rollout. We show that an increase in mobile internet access increases desire to emigrate. This effect is particularly strong for higher-income individuals in low-income countries. We identify three potential mechanisms. Access to the mobile internet lowers the cost of acquiring information and leads to a drop in perceived material well-being and trust in government. Using municipal-level data from Spain, we also document that 3G rollout increased actual migration flows.
    Keywords: Gender pay gap, university student employment, job types
    JEL: F22
    Date: 2021
  68. By: Wanying Huang; Philipp Strack; Omer Tamuz
    Abstract: We study how long-lived, rational, exponentially discounting agents learn in a social network. In every period, each agent observes the past actions of his neighbors, receives a private signal, and chooses an action with the objective of matching the state. Since agents behave strategically, and since their actions depend on higher order beliefs, it is difficult to characterize equilibrium behavior. Nevertheless, we show that regardless of the size and shape of the network, and the patience of the agents, the equilibrium speed of learning is bounded by a constant that only depends on the private signal distribution.
    Date: 2021–12
  69. By: Jingwen Tan; Shixi Kang
    Abstract: Due to the specificity of China's dualistic household registration system and the differences in the rights and interests attached to it, household registration is prevalent as a control variable in the empirical evidence. In the context of family planning policies, this paper proposes to use family size and number of children as instrumental variables for household registration, and discusses qualitatively and statistically verifies their relevance and exogeneity, while empirically analyzing the impact of the household registration system on citizenship of the mobile population. After controlling for city, individual control variables and fixed effects, the following conclusions are drawn: family size and number of children pass the over-identification test when used as instrumental variables for household registration; non-agricultural households have about 20.2\% lower settlement intentions and 7.28\% lower employment levels in inflow cities than agricultural households; the mechanism of the effect of the nature of household registration on employment still holds for the non-mobile population group.
    Date: 2021–12
  70. By: Caliendo, Marco (University of Potsdam); Wittbrodt, Linda (University of Potsdam)
    Abstract: In many countries, women are over-represented among low-wage employees, which is why a wage floor could benefit them particularly. Following this notion, we analyse the impact of the German minimum wage introduction in 2015 on the gender wage gap. Germany poses an interesting case study in this context, since it has a rather high gender wage gap and set the minimum wage at a relatively high level, affecting more than four million employees. Based on individual data from the Structure of Earnings Survey, containing information for over one million employees working in 60,000 firms, we use a difference-in-difference framework that exploits regional differences in the bite of the minimum wage. We find a significant negative effect of the minimum wage on the regional gender wage gap. Between 2014 and 2018, the gap at the 10th percentile of the wage distribution was reduced by 4.6 percentage points (or 32%) in regions that were strongly affected by the minimum wage compared to less affected regions. For the gap at the 25th percentile, the effect still amounted to -18%, while for the mean it was smaller (-11%) and not particularly robust. We thus find that the minimum wage can indeed reduce gender wage disparities. While the effect is highest for the low-paid, it also reaches up into higher parts of the wage distribution.
    Keywords: minimum wage, gender wage gap, regional bite
    JEL: J16 J31 J38 J71
    Date: 2021–12
  71. By: Imryoung Jeong; Hyunjoo Yang
    Abstract: We introduce a novel machine learning approach to leverage historical and contemporary maps to systematically predict economic statistics. Remote sensing data have been used as reliable proxies for local economic activity. However, they have only become available in recent years, thus limiting their applicability for long-term analysis. Historical maps, on the other hand, date back several decades. Our simple algorithm extracts meaningful features from the maps based on their color compositions. The grid-level population predictions by our approach outperform the conventional CNN-based predictions using raw map images. It also predicts population better than other approaches using night light satellite images or land cover classifications as the input for predictions.
    Date: 2021–12

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