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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Alex W. Bartik (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); Evan Mast (University of Notre Dame) |
| Abstract: | Since 1970, the share of Black individuals living in suburbs of larger cities has risen from 16 to 36 percent. We present three facts illustrating how this suburbanization has changed spatial inequality. First, suburbanization entirely accounts for Black households’ relative improvements in several key neighborhood characteristics, while Black city dwellers saw declines. Second, suburbanization accounts for over half of the increase in within-Black income segregation. Selective Black migration and muted suburban “White flight” both contribute to these patterns. Third, total Black population in central cities has plummeted since 2000, driven by young people and declines in high-poverty, majority-Black neighborhoods. |
| Keywords: | suburbanization, racial inequality |
| JEL: | R23 J15 J11 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upj:weupjo:21-355&r= |
| By: | Eduard Hromada (Czech Technical University in Prague, Faculty of Civil Engineering) |
| Abstract: | Currently, there is an increasing interest in the real estate market and many small and large investors regularly monitor real estate prices and price trends at the national and regional level. The covid-19 pandemic has caused a change in long-term trends in the real estate market. The paper deals with a regression analysis of selected technical and economic parameters that affect the real estate market in the Czech Republic. Specifically, these parameters are: the relationship between the average mortgage rate and the price of an apartment for sale, the relationship between the average mortgage rate and the number of properties offered for sale and the influence of the existence of a terrace, balcony or loggia on the unit price of the apartment. The results of the work are based on the EVAL software, which collects data on real estate advertising in the Czech Republic. |
| Keywords: | Real estate market, EVAL software, regression analysis |
| JEL: | C13 C35 R31 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:ibmpro:12713384&r= |
| By: | Nicola Mauri |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates incentive effects of fiscal equalization on local tax rates. I propose three refinements to current empirical estimations of these incentive effects. I show that local policy-makers may conceive changes in equalization transfers as stemming from discrete rather than marginal changes in the tax base, thus considering "supramarginal" equalization rates. Second, I study "effective" equalization rates which condition on the current tax rate. Third, I control for redistribution effects. I investigate the reform of an inter-municipal equalization scheme in Switzerland. My baseline estimate from supramarginal equalization rates is 2-3 times larger than found in previous studies. |
| Keywords: | fiscal equalization, tax competition, local public, finance, fiscal federalism, regional science |
| JEL: | H71 H77 R51 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lau:crdeep:21.13&r= |
| By: | Adam Found (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | With the release of More Homes, More Choice: Ontario’s Housing Supply Action Plan in 2019, the Province of Ontario embarked on a campaign to reduce barriers to housing supply in an effort to make housing in the province more affordable. Among the various barriers identified in the report are municipal development charges, which are one-time levies on property development. Over the past 30 years, Ontario’s municipalities have increasingly relied on development charges to recover growth-related capital costs as provincial grants for expansionary capital works have declined. At the same time, the development industry has strongly opposed development charges while academics and policymakers have focused considerable attention on these charges. Concern over development charges principally stems from their supposed negative impact on housing affordability. The literature, however, provides little in the way of sound theoretical foundations or robust empirical evidence for such an effect. The present study aims to address that gap by examining the connection between development charges and housing affordability in a municipal context. By considering the way in which municipal services are provided and financed, this paper shows that properly formulated development charges in fact improve housing affordability. |
| Keywords: | development charges, housing, municipal finance, affordable housing, growth, impact fees |
| JEL: | H21 H54 R11 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mfg:wpaper:56&r= |
| By: | IWATA Shinichiro; KONDO Keisuke |
| Abstract: | The compact city policy of Toyama City, Japan, aims to encourage density in both the city center and suburban hubs linked by public transport systems. The policy framework relates to the place-based policy, which targets geographic underperforming zones. Several town developments projected by this policy, including the development of housing, public and commercial facilities, and public transport systems, are conducted to increase the attractiveness of the target zones. Retail revitalization is then expected as a spillover effect through increasing market size. Using a difference-in-difference matching estimation with establishment-level panel data, this paper evaluates the policy impact on incumbent retailers located in the target zones, corresponding to the treatment group. The empirical results demonstrate that while the policy effects are not observed in the short run, the policy has a positive impact on both inputs and outputs for incumbent retailers in the long run. The existing policy framework, however, does not generate positive spillover effects on incumbent retailer productivity. |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:21085&r= |
| By: | Tom Broekel; Rune Dahl Fitjar; Silje Haus-Reve |
| Abstract: | Contemporary research highlights the importance of relatedness, diversity, and complexity for regional economic development. However, few empirical studies simultaneously test the relevance of all these dimensions or examine how their importance varies across distinct spatial contexts. The literature also concentrates on explaining regional diversification, whereas we know less about how they affect economic and employment growth. In addition, most studies have examined industrial relatedness at the expense of the at least similarly crucial occupational dimension when studying knowledge-based regional development. The chapter discusses these issues and presents a study on how occupational diversity, complexity and relatedness shape employment growth in Norway to illustrate how an occupational perspective on regional industries can add to the understanding of evolutionary economic development. |
| Keywords: | relatedness, diversity, complexity, occupation, region, Norway |
| JEL: | R11 O31 O33 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2135&r= |
| By: | Santosh Anagol; Fernando V. Ferreira; Jonah M. Rexer |
| Abstract: | We develop a framework to estimate the economic value of a recent zoning reform in the city of Sao Paulo, which altered maximum permitted construction at the city-block level. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design, we find that developers file for more multi-family construction permits in blocks with higher allowable densities. We incorporate these micro-estimates into an equilibrium model of housing supply and demand to estimate the long term impact of zoning changes. Supply responses from the reform produce a 2.2 percent increase in the total housing stock, leading to a 0.5% reduction in prices on average, with substantial heterogeneity across neighborhoods. Consumer welfare gains due to price reductions are small, but increase 4-fold once we account for changes in the built environment, with more gains accruing to college-educated and higher income households. However, nominal house price losses faced by existing homeowners and landlords overshadow all consumer welfare gains. |
| JEL: | H0 O18 R0 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29440&r= |
| By: | Ernawati Pasaribu (STIS Polytechnic of Statistics, Jakarta); Puguh B. Irawan (STIS Polytechnic of Statistics, Jakarta); Tiodora H. Siagian (STIS Polytechnic of Statistics, Jakarta); Ika Yuni Wulansari (STIS Polytechnic of Statistics, Jakarta); Robert Kurniawan (STIS Polytechnic of Statistics, Jakarta) |
| Abstract: | This research study focuses on measuring the possible spillover effects of socio-economic interactions on COVID-19 pandemic vulnerability across Indonesia’s regions by utilising a spatial simultaneous model. The COVID-19 pandemic vulnerability level here is used to indicate the extent to which a region is susceptible to the spreading COVID-19 pandemic, as determined by not only the region’s COVID-19 related epidemiological factors but also by its relevant socio-demographic and economic aspects, housing, environmental health, and availability of health facilities. High COVID-19 pandemic vulnerability levels were mostly found in districts in Java Island and southern Sumatera, suggesting high population density and mobility in both regions. It was revealed that 31 districts have low COVID-19 risk levels (from epidemiological indicators-related measurements), but they have high COVID-19 vulnerability levels (from epidemiological and socioeconomic indicators-based measurements). Labour productivity was found to have a reciprocal relationship with COVID-19 vulnerability, proving that the COVID-19 pandemic has a significant impact on labour productivity and vice versa. On the other hand, regional independence affects COVID-19 vulnerability, but this does not apply the other way around. Moreover, this study has also proven that COVID-19 pandemic vulnerability levels have socio-economic spillover effects on neighbouring areas in Indonesia. |
| Keywords: | Spillover Effects; Spatial Simultaneous Model; COVID-19 Vulnerability Levels |
| JEL: | C31 R23 R53 |
| Date: | 2021–11–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-42&r= |
| By: | Berno Buechel; Selina Gangl; Martin Huber |
| Abstract: | We analyze the impact of obtaining a residence permit on foreign workers' labor market and residential attachment. To overcome the usually severe selection issues, we exploit a unique migration lottery that randomly assigns access to residence permits for workers with an employment contract in Liechtenstein, which is situated centrally in Europe. Using an instrumental variable approach, our results show that lottery compliers raise their employment probability in Liechtenstein by on average 24 percentage points across outcome periods (2008 to 2018) as a result of receiving a permit. Relatedly, their activity level and employment duration in Liechtenstein increase by on average 20 percentage points and 1.15 years, respectively, over the outcome window. These substantial and statistically significant effects are predominantly driven by individuals not (yet) working in Liechtenstein prior to the lottery rather than by previous cross-border commuters, but even for the latter group, positive employment effects emerge in the longer run. Indeed, we find both the labor market and residential effects to be persistent even several years after the lottery with no sign of fading out. These results suggest that granting resident permits to foreign workers can be effective to foster labor supply, despite the alternative of commuting cross-border from adjacent regions. |
| Keywords: | international migration, cross-border commuting, natural experiment, lottery |
| JEL: | F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9390&r= |
| By: | Martin, Elliot PhD; Shaheen, Susan PhD; Stocker, Adam |
| Abstract: | Transportation Network Companies (TNCs) like Lyft, Uber, and their global counterparts have expanded around the world over the past decade and have changed the way that people travel around cities and regions. The individual mobility benefits provided by TNCs have been clear. Passengers can summon a vehicle quickly via smartphone from almost anywhere to take them almost anywhere, with advance communication on estimated wait time, travel time, and cost. TNCs may also provide users with added mobility benefits, especially for those living in areas where public transit service is infrequent or non-existent. However, the growing popularity of TNCs has forced important questions about their impacts on the overall transportation network. While past research has focused on many different aspects of TNC impacts, including their effects on travel behavior, modal shift, congestion, and other topics, there are still many important questions. This report advances the understanding of TNC effects on vehicle miles traveled (VMT), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and personal vehicle ownership. The research also explores key questions regarding the impact of pooled TNC services, Lyft Shared rides and uberPOOL, and further investigates how TNCs alter the use of other transportation modes, including public transit. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2021–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt90b6d7r3&r= |
| By: | ISOZUMI Koji; ITO Hirotake; NAKAMURO Makiko; YAMAGUCHI Shintaro |
| Abstract: | Using administrative data from one of the most selective secondary schools in Japan, this paper shows that students’ ordinal rank in their first exam at the school has a significant positive effect not only on their subsequent test scores but also on the quality of the college by which they are accepted after school. This may explain why students with a lower rank based on the exams in their early days of school life remain low achievers in later school years, which is referred to as the "deep-sea-fish" phenomenon. The results imply that attending a selective school should not be the ultimate goal because achieving a good grade in the first exam after enrollment is important for subsequent accomplishment. |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:21086&r= |
| By: | Eduard Hromada (Czech Technical University in Prague, Faculty of Civil Engineering) |
| Abstract: | The paper describes the changes in the residential market in individual city districts in Prague due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In Prague, there is a significant decrease in the use of short-term rental of apartments through Airbnb and Booking services. Due to the impossibility of renting an apartment to tourists, the owners offered their apartments on the market of long-term rentals. There is an increase in the supply side, which has an impact on falling rental prices. The biggest changes are taking place in the centre of Prague. On the other hand, there is a significant increase in the selling prices of flats, which is mainly related to the monetary policy of the central bank, low mortgage interest rates and citizens' fears of rising inflation. The paper compares the price development in individual city districts of Prague for the period 2018 to June 2021.To describe the development of the residential market in Prague, the EVAL software is used. The EVAL software collects, analyses and evaluates real estate advertising in the Czech Republic. |
| Keywords: | Real estate market, data mining, data analysis, Prague |
| JEL: | E10 C30 R30 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:ibmpro:12713394&r= |
| By: | Ivo Bischoff (University of Kassel); Reinhold Kosfeld (University of Kassel) |
| Keywords: | Inter-local industrial parks, inter-municipal cooperation, tax competition, gen-eralized synthetic control method, Germany |
| JEL: | H25 H77 H71 R58 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:202137&r= |
| By: | Courtney Coile |
| Abstract: | As Americans work longer in response to a changing retirement landscape, it is important to ask whether there are groups being left out of this trend. Geography is a natural lens through which to examine this question, given regional disparities in the employment of prime-age individuals. In this study, we explore the geography of retirement using data from the U.S. Census/American Community Survey and other sources. We find large differences across U.S. commuting zones in employment rates at older ages, with a gap of about 20 percentage points between areas at the 90th and 10th percentiles of employment. Low-employment areas are systematically different, with a less educated and more diverse population, more low-wage jobs and import competition from China, poorer health outcomes and health care access, lower government spending, and more income inequality. Although these correlations are not necessarily causal, these factors collectively can explain about four-fifths of the geographic variation in employment at older ages. |
| JEL: | J22 J26 R23 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29433&r= |
| By: | Samuel Nursamsu (Australia-Indonesia Partnership for Economic Development (PROSPERA)); Wisnu Harto Adiwijoyo (University of Göttingen); Anissa Rahmawati (Presisi Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to shed light on the impact of socio-economic disparity on learning engagement during the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia. Utilising search intensity data from Google Trends, school data from Dapodik (Education Core Database), and socio-economic data from the National Socioeconomic Survey, we conduct descriptive analysis, an event study, and difference-in-difference estimations. First, school quality differs in terms of the regions’ development level, especially between western and eastern Indonesia. However, densely populated and well-developed areas generally have lower offline classroom availability. In addition, the quality of public schools is generally lower than private schools. Second, our estimation results show that only online-classroom related search intensity that increased significantly after school closures on 16 March 2020, not in self-learning related search intensity. Further the analysis shows that socio-economic disparity within provinces widens the gap in online learning engagement, albeit with weak evidence from per capita expenditure. Interestingly, provinces with a higher inequality and rural population tend to have higher self-learning related search intensity due to students’ necessity to compensate for low learning quality from schools. In addition, technology adoption does not seem to give much of an increase to online-classroom related search intensity but contributes to lower self-learning related search intensity due to increased academic distraction. Our study provides evidence for the Indonesian government to make more precise policy in improving learning quality during the pandemic. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19 Impact, Education Inequality, Online learning |
| JEL: | I24 O15 |
| Date: | 2021–11–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2021-41&r= |
| By: | Batabyal, Amitrajeet; Beladi, Hamid |
| Abstract: | There are no theoretical studies in regional science that examine which region to locate in from the standpoint of a creative class member, given that the pertinent regional authorities (RAs) are competing among themselves to attract the creative class using subsidies. This gap provides the motivation for our paper. This paper’s contribution is that it is the first to theoretically study the regional location choice of creative class members when the RAs of the locations in which they might locate are using subsidies to attract them. Specifically, a knowledge good producing creative class member must decide which of two regions (A or B) to locate his plant in. This good is produced using a Cobb-Douglas function with creative and physical capital. We analyze plant location in four cases. In the benchmark case, we show that the representative creative class member ought to locate his plant in the less expensive region B. Next, we show that a small subsidy to creative capital by region A switches the plant location decision from region B to A. Finally, when both regions grant identical subsidies to creative capital, the representative creative class member is indifferent between locating in regions A and B. So, for identical subsidies to affect the plant location decision, they are better targeted to physical and not to creative capital. |
| Keywords: | Creative Capital, Interregional Competition, Physical Capital, Subsidy |
| JEL: | R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2021–02–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110446&r= |
| By: | Gianni La Cava (Reserve Bank of Australia); Lydia Wang (Reserve Bank of Australia) |
| Abstract: | It is well documented that household wealth has risen significantly in recent decades and that both sides of the household balance sheet – assets and liabilities – have expanded. We document a less well-known phenomenon: household liquid assets (such as cash, deposits and equities) have also risen strongly relative to income over the same period. This is true for Australia and for most advanced economies. We explore the determinants of liquidity across households and over time, using a range of household surveys for Australia. We find that household liquidity is strongly associated with life cycle factors, such as age and housing tenure. The increase in liquidity over recent decades has been broad based across households, though strongest amongst those with mortgage debt. Consistent with this, the share of liquidity-constrained households has declined significantly. The growth in liquidity is closely connected to developments in the housing market. First, higher housing prices have lifted the deposit requirement for potential home buyers, encouraging such households to save more in liquid assets. Second, higher mortgage debt has increased the repayment risks associated with future income declines, leading indebted home owners to save more for precautionary reasons, partly through paying down debt ahead of schedule. The process of building wealth and liquidity through debt amortisation has been supported by the trend decline in interest rates and unique financial innovations such as mortgage offset and redraw accounts that have made housing wealth more liquid. Overall, the rise in household liquidity appears to have increased the financial resilience of the household sector. |
| Keywords: | household liquidity; mortgage debt; housing prices; liquidity constraints; amortisation |
| JEL: | B22 E13 E20 E40 E50 E7 G51 R21 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2021-10&r= |
| By: | Seung Jin Cho; Jun Yeong Lee; John V. Winters (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University) |
| Abstract: | The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is causing massive economic disruptions in the United States. Unemployment has hit record levels as businesses nationwide grapple with both mandatory and voluntary closures and dwindling patronage. However, certain factors, such as population density, have led to some parts of the country seeing higher unemployment levels. Cho, Lee, and Winters examine recent IPUMS data to find differences in unemployment levels between urban and rural areas and across US Bureau of Economic Activity regions and find that rural areas are seeing lower unemployment rates than urban areas, and the Plains region is seeing lower unemployment levels than areas than other USBEA regions. |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ias:cpaper:apr-spring-2020-1&r= |
| By: | NAKAJIMA Kentaro; TAKANO Keisuke |
| Abstract: | Land use regulation is expected to decrease land values by restricting the possibility of developing to provide large floor space on the land. Particularly, the negative impact is expected to be large in the city center and the surrounding areas which have large demand for the floor space. However, in general, it is difficult to estimate the impact of land use regulation on land price due to the endogeneity problem since the unobserved characteristics of the land affect both land price and the extent of the regulations. This study estimates the impact of land use regulation on land price in city centers by exploiting the unique feature of building height restrictions imposed by aviation law in Fukuoka, Japan. The aviation law uniformly limits the height of buildings within 4000 meters (m) of an airport to 54.1 m, but when the distance exceeds 4000 m, the building height restrictions are relaxed linearly on a two percent slope based on distance from the airport. The closest airport to Fukuoka is located 3000 m from the city center, and the kink point of the building height limit (4000m from the airport) is located in the Central Business District (CBD) of the city. Exploiting this feature of the regulation, we estimate the impact of the building height restriction on the land price using the regression kink design (RKD). We find that building height restriction has a negative and significant impact on land price. The magnitude is substantial; relaxing the building height restriction by four meters, which is equivalent to one additional story, increases the land price by 12 percent. |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:21088&r= |
| By: | Fantazzini, Dean; Pushchelenko, Julia; Mironenkov, Alexey; Kurbatskii, Alexey |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the suitability of Google Trends data for the modeling and forecasting of interregional migration in Russia. Monthly migration data, search volume data, and macro variables are used with a set of univariate and multivariate models to study the migration data of the two Russian cities with the largest migration inflows: Moscow and Saint Petersburg. The empirical analysis does not provide evidence that the more people search online, the more likely they are to relocate to other regions. However, the inclusion of Google Trends data in a model improves the forecasting of the migration flows, because the forecasting errors are lower for models with internet search data than for models without them. These results also hold after a set of robustness checks that consider multivariate models able to deal with potential parameter instability and with a large number of regressors. |
| Keywords: | Migration; Forecasting; Google Trends; VAR; Cointegration; ARIMA; Russia; Time-varying VAR; Multivariate Ridge regression. |
| JEL: | C22 C32 C52 C53 C55 F22 J11 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110452&r= |
| By: | Francisco Cabrera-Herández (Universidad de Monterrey and Center for Institutional Studies); María Padilla-Romo (Department of Economics, University of Tennessee) |
| Abstract: | Caregiving responsibilities and the lack of family-friendly policies often prevent women from participating in the labor market. This study analyzes the effects of an implicit childcare subsidy—through longer school days—on the labor supply of grandmothers in the context of Mexico’s full-time schools program. Since 2007, this program has gradually increased the school day’s length by three-and-a-half hours in public elementary schools. We document how the availability of full-time schools in a municipality affects grandmothers’ decisions to participate in the labor market. These effects are estimated by using data collected through a rotating panel design and within-individual variation in full-time schools’ availability. Childcare subsidies through longer school days increase grandmothers’ labor force participation and employment, especially in the informal market. |
| Keywords: | Childcare; Full-time Schools; Childrearing; Grandmothers; Labor Supply |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ten:wpaper:2021-03&r= |
| By: | Sarah Brown; Alexandros Kontonikas; Alberto Montagnoli; Mirko Moro; Dafni Papoutsaki; Willem Sas |
| Abstract: | We present new evidence showing that fiscal austerity strengthens support for redistribution, especially for the relatively well-off. Our theoretical model proposes two mechanisms to explain this heterogeneity in support for redistribution: ‘altruism’ and ‘appreciation’. We test our theoretical model’s predictions by matching attitudes reported in the British Social Attitudes Survey with local area-level spending cuts in England over the period 2010 to 2015. We exploit the spatial and temporal variation in spending cuts at the Local Authority level to compute a plausibly exogenous measure of the austerity shock. We find evidence for these two channels. |
| Keywords: | austerity, fiscal consolidation, fiscal policy, redistribution, political attitudes, altruism, appreciation |
| JEL: | D30 D64 E62 H20 H30 H60 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9393&r= |
| By: | Tammy Campbell; Polina Obolenskaya |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the existing literature on what the Free School Meals ('FSM') measure in the National Pupil Database (NPD) can proxy, and on ways in which the measure is used and understood. Through new empirical analyses of data for Reception-aged children in the NPD, and of the DWP's Household Below Average Income (HBAI) data, it then highlights inconsistencies and change in the characteristics of Reception pupils recorded as 'FSM,' over time, place, and family background. It also suggests increased under-ascription of young children from low-income families / families living in poverty over the recent decade. Implications for research, interpretation, policy-making, and practice are critically discussed. |
| Keywords: | Free School Meals (FSM), National Pupil Database (NPD), Measurement, Education, Schools, Poverty |
| JEL: | I21 I24 I28 I32 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:sticas:/225&r= |
| By: | Barrero, Jose Maria (Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico); Bloom, Nicholas (Stanford University); Davis, Steven J. (University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | COVID-19 drove a mass social experiment in working from home. We survey more than 30,000 Americans over multiple waves to investigate whether WFH will stick, and why. Our data say that 20 percent of full workdays will be supplied from home after the pandemic ends, compared with just five percent before. We develop evidence on five reasons for this large shift: better-than-expected WFH experiences, new investments in physical and human capital that enable WFH, greatly diminished stigma associated with WFH, lingering concerns about crowds and contagion risks, and a pandemic-driven surge in technological innovations that support WFH. We also use our survey data to project three consequences: First, employees will enjoy large benefits from greater remote work, especially those with higher earnings. Second, the shift to WFH will directly reduce spending in major city centers by at least five to ten percent relative to the pre-pandemic situation. Third, our data on employer plans and the relative productivity of WFH imply a five percent productivity boost in the post-pandemic economy due to re-optimized working arrangements. Only one-fifth of this productivity gain will show up in conventional productivity measures, because they do not capture the time savings from less commuting. |
| JEL: | D13 D23 E24 G18 J22 M54 R3 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3965&r= |
| By: | Lara Abdel Fattah; Mounir Amdaoud |
| Abstract: | This article seeks to measure the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on local employment in metropolitan France. Based on an extensive literature on economic resilience and the first available local data on the number of job losses, we highlight, on the one hand, the differences in the resilience of employment areas in the face of the crisis and, on the other hand, the key explanatory factors behind these disparities. The first econometric results show a significant influence of the density, the level of employment in the industry, the productive structure and the entrepreneurial dynamics of the territory.However, no relationship was found between employment areas with high levels of excess mortality and those that exhibit large job losses. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, economic resilience, employment, employment areas |
| JEL: | R11 R12 E24 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2021-30&r= |
| By: | Lonsky, Jakub; Ruiz, Isabel; Vargas-Silva, Carlos |
| Abstract: | The role of ethnic immigrant networks in facilitating international trade is a well-established phenomenon in the literature. However, it is less clear whether this relationship extends to illegal trade and unauthorized immigrants. In this paper, we tackle this question by focusing on the case of the heroin trade and unauthorized Chinese immigrants in the early 1990s United States. Between mid-1980s and mid-1990s, Southeast Asia became the dominant source of heroin in the US. Heroin from this region was trafficked into the US by Chinese organized criminals, whose presence across the country can be approximated by the location of unauthorized Chinese immigrants. Instrumenting for the unauthorized Chinese immigrant enclaves in 1990 with their 1900 counterpart, we first show that Chinese presence in a community led to a sizeable increase in local opiates-related arrests, a proxy for local heroin markets. This effect is driven by arrests for sale/manufacturing of the drugs. Next, we examine the consequences of Chinese-trafficked heroin by looking at its impact on US Vietnam-era veterans - a group particularly vulnerable to heroin addiction in the early 1990s. Using a triple-difference estimation, we find mostly small but statistically significant detrimental effects on labor market outcomes of Vietnam veterans residing in unauthorized Chinese enclaves in 1990. |
| Keywords: | Trade networks,heroin markets,Vietnam veterans,labor market outcomes |
| JEL: | F16 F22 J15 K42 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:974&r= |
| By: | Amalia R. Miller; Carmit Segal; Melissa K. Spencer |
| Abstract: | We empirically investigate the impact of COVID-19 shutdowns on domestic violence using incident-level data on both domestic-related calls for service and crime reports of domestic violence assaults from the 18 major US police departments for which both types of records are available. Although we confirm prior reports of an increase in domestic calls for service at the start of the pandemic, we find that the increase preceded mandatory shutdowns, and there was an incremental decline following the government imposition of restrictions. We find no evidence that domestic violence crimes increased. Rather, domestic violence assaults declined significantly during the initial shutdown period and there was no significant change in intimate partner homicides in these months. Our results fail to support claims that shutdowns increased domestic violence and suggest caution before drawing inference or basing policy on calls data alone. |
| JEL: | I18 J12 J16 K14 K42 R28 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29429&r= |
| By: | Hu, Shichun; Dessouky, Maged M. |
| Abstract: | Traffic congestion causes significant economic costs, wasted time, and public health risks. Ride-sharing, defined as a joint trip of more than two participants who share a vehicle that requires coordination among itineraries, has the potential to help mitigate congestion. A good ride-sharing system should provide quick response to passenger requests while identifying routes with minimum travel time. This is not an easy task, especially with dynamic passenger requests, variable request times, and cancelations of existing requests. One way to mitigate the effect of these uncertainties is to allow passengers to walk to a designated pick-up spot while waiting for the drivers, which can improve the system’s efficiency. Taking advantage of ride-sharing incentives such as High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes can also reduce travel time and make ride-sharing more appealing. Researchers at the University of Southern California developed a two-stage algorithm to solve the routing problem in real-time within a context where ride-sharing drivers are traveling toward their own destinations while making detours to serve passengers with flexible pickup and drop-off locations. The researchers also simulated operation of a ride-sharing system with and without HOV lanes and passenger meeting points, to determine the impact of these two factors on the operation of the system. This research brief summarizes the findings from that research and provides research implications. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Algorithms, High occupancy toll lanes, High occupancy vehicle lanes, Optimization, Ridesharing, Routes and routing, Traffic congestion |
| Date: | 2021–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt7wh3c778&r= |
| By: | Hanushek, Eric A.; Jacobs, Babs (ROA / Education and transition to work, RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research); Schwerdt, Guido; van der Velden, Rolf (ROA / Education and transition to work, RS: GSBE Theme Learning and Work); Vermeulen, Stan (ROA / Education and transition to work, RS: GSBE Theme Learning and Work); Wiederhold, Simon |
| Abstract: | The extensive literature on intergenerational mobility highlights the importance of family linkages but fails to provide credible evidence about the underlying family factors that drive the pervasive correlations. We employ a unique combination of Dutch survey and registry data that links math and language skills across generations. We identify a causal connection between cognitive skills of parents and their children by exploiting within-family between-subject variation in these skills. The data also permit novel IV estimation that isolates variation in parental cognitive skills due to school and peer quality. The between-subject and IV estimates of the key intergenerational persistence parameter are strikingly similar and close at about 0.1. Finally, we show the strong influence of family skill transmission on children’s choices of STEM fields. |
| JEL: | I24 J12 J24 J62 |
| Date: | 2021–11–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umaror:2021007&r= |
| By: | Daniel Salinas |
| Abstract: | Teaching foreign languages has become a major goal for many education systems around the world. In today’s increasingly interconnected world, speaking multiple languages improves employability, fosters respect for people from other cultures, and gives young people direct access to content that would otherwise be inaccessible, including literature, music, theatre and cinema. For the first time in 2018, PISA asked students whether they studied foreign languages at school and how much class time they had on foreign languages per week. Results show that learning foreign languages is widely available to 15-year-olds in today’s education systems. However, these opportunities are not evenly distributed among students of different socio-economic status: students in advantaged schools have more opportunities to learn foreign languages than students in disadvantaged schools. |
| Date: | 2021–11–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduddd:116-en&r= |
| By: | Hanushek, Eric A.; Jacobs, Babs (ROA / Education and transition to work, RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research); Schwerdt, Guido; van der Velden, Rolf (ROA / Education and transition to work, RS: GSBE Theme Learning and Work); Vermeulen, Stan (ROA / Education and transition to work, RS: GSBE Theme Learning and Work); Wiederhold, Simon |
| Abstract: | The extensive literature on intergenerational mobility highlights the importance of family linkages but fails to provide credible evidence about the underlying family factors that drive the pervasive correlations. We employ a unique combination of Dutch survey and registry data that links math and language skills across generations. We identify a causal connection between cognitive skills of parents and their children by exploiting within-family between-subject variation in these skills. The data also permit novel IV estimation that isolates variation in parental cognitive skills due to school and peer quality. The between-subject and IV estimates of the key intergenerational persistence parameter are strikingly similar and close at about 0.1. Finally, we show the strong influence of family skill transmission on children’s choices of STEM fields. |
| JEL: | I24 J12 J24 J62 |
| Date: | 2021–11–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umagsb:2021017&r= |
| By: | Rebecca McKibbin; Bruce A. Weinberg |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the local impact of biomedical research on mortality in the USA. Causally estimating the marginal value of biomedical research is challenging due to a lack of micro data linking health outcomes to plausibly exogenous variation in research. We create a new linkage between a research database (PubMed) and administrative death records that enables research to be related to mortality at the geographic, disease and time level. We then estimate the marginal impact of biomedical research on mortality using hospital market (HRR) level shocks to research activity by disease. Our identification strategy builds on the literature on the dissemination of knowledge, specifically that of local knowledge spillovers. By utilizing variation across diseases, time and distance from research we control for additional trends relative to the current literature. Our results show that an additional research publication on average reduces local mortality from a disease by 0.35%. Our results also provide novel evidence that there are health benefits to the local communities (local spillovers) in which biomedical research is conducted. |
| JEL: | I1 O33 O38 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29420&r= |
| By: | Andrew F. Haughwout; Donghoon Lee; Daniel Mangrum; Joelle Scally; Wilbert Van der Klaauw |
| Abstract: | Today, the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the third quarter of 2021. Overall debt balances increased, bolstered primarily by a sizeable increase in mortgage balances, and for the second consecutive quarter, an increase in credit card balances. The changes in credit card balances in the second and third quarters of 2021 are remarkable since they appear to be a return to the normal seasonal patterns in balances. In a Liberty Street Economics post earlier this year we wrote about some demographic variation in these balance changes and the likely role of stimulus checks and forbearance programs in helping borrowers pay down expensive revolving debt balances. Here, we’ll take a fresh look at credit card balances and at the dynamics behind new and closing credit card accounts and limit changes, to examine how credit access and usage continue to evolve. The Quarterly Report and this analysis are based on our Consumer Credit Panel, which is itself based on Equifax credit data. |
| Keywords: | household finance; Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) |
| JEL: | D14 |
| Date: | 2021–11–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:93331&r= |
| By: | Lara Bohnet; Susana Peralta; Joao Pereira dos Santos |
| Abstract: | This paper uses detailed census data to investigate the labour market consequences of a large, exogenous, labour market shock, exploiting the unexpected inflow of repatriates to Portugal following the end of the Portuguese Colonial War in 1974. The labour supply shock entails a composition dimension, as the repatriates were more than twice as likely to have secondary or higher education. We take advantage of the fact that most of the repatriates were Portuguese born to build novel shift-share instrumental variables based on their region of birth. We explore the impact on regional labour force participation, unemployment, employment, and entrepreneurship, for both male and female natives. We find substantial gender differences in the effects, with females absorbing the bulk of the shock. Native workers are driven out of employment as employees, with a sizeable 15% decrease for males and 55% for females. Men compensate for this loss by moving to low quality self-employment, while women move to inactivity. Our results are robust to changing the instrumental variable, the geographical unit of analysis, and to various sample restrictions. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, labour market, labour supply, entrepreneurship, instrumental variable |
| JEL: | F22 J20 R23 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unl:novafr:wp2114&r= |
| By: | Neumayer, Eric; Plumper, Thomas |
| Abstract: | There is a large variation across countries of origin in the gender composition of migrants coming to Germany. We argue that women's economic rights in developing countries of origin have three effects on their migration prospects to a place like Germany that is far away and difficult to reach. First, the lower are women's economic rights the fewer women have access to and control over the resources needed to migrate to Germany. Second, the lower are the rights the lower is women's agency to make or otherwise influence migration decisions. These two constraining effects on the female share in migrant populations dominate the opposing third effect that stems from low levels of women's economic rights generating a potentially powerful push factor. We find corroborating evidence in our analysis of the gender composition of migration to Germany over the period 2009-2017. |
| Keywords: | migration; economic rights; gender; resources; agency; Internal OA fund |
| JEL: | F22 O15 |
| Date: | 2021–10–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:112557&r= |
| By: | Ventura, Luigi |
| Abstract: | A recent paper (Bove and Elia (2017)) argues that migrants' diversity, as captured by the indexes of both fractionalization and polarization, exerts a posive effect on GDP growth. In fact, by using the same dataset and method- ology, it can easily be shown that the impact of diversity cannot be distinguished from that of migration itself, due to the very high correlation among the corresponding variables. Also, if one disentangles migration from diversity, following Alesina et al. (2016), only migration maintains a positive impact on growth while diversity, as captured by fractionalization, turns out to be weakly and positively associated to growth, but limitedly to the 1980-2010 time span. Polarization, on the other hand, does not seem to exert any effect on growth. The question as to whether diversity is more or less beneficial in terms of economic growth remains therefore an intriguing one, and calls for more theoretical and empirical analyses, possibly based on less (geographically) aggregated data. |
| Keywords: | Diversity, economic growth, migration. |
| JEL: | C23 C51 E21 F36 |
| Date: | 2021–05–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110512&r= |
| By: | Lucie Cerna (OECD); Cecilia Mezzanotte (OECD); Alexandre Rutigliano; Ottavia Brussino (OECD); Paulo Santiago (OECD); Francesca Borgonovi (OECD); Caitlyn Guthrie (OECD) |
| Abstract: | In many countries, schools and classrooms are becoming increasingly diverse along a variety of dimensions, including migration; ethnic groups, national minorities and Indigenous peoples; gender; gender identity and sexual orientation; special education needs; and giftedness. To navigate this diversity, adopting a multidimensional and intersectional lens could help education systems promote equity and inclusion in education and foster the well-being and learning of all students. Such an approach could also support education systems in preparing all individuals so that they can engage with others in increasingly complex and diverse societies. To build equitable and inclusive education systems, analysing policy issues regarding governance arrangements, resourcing schemes, capacity building, school-level interventions, and monitoring and evaluation is key. The Strength through Diversity: Education for Inclusive Societies project seeks to help governments and education systems address diversity to achieve more equitable and inclusive education systems. This paper presents the project’s theoretical and analytical framework. |
| Date: | 2021–11–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaab:260-en&r= |
| By: | Le, Kien; Nguyen, My |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the extent to which in-utero exposure to temperature shocks affects birth weight outcomes in Vietnam. Exploiting the variations across districts and conception timing within districts, we show that a one standard deviation increase in temperature relative to the local norm (approximately 0.52 degree Celsius) during the first trimester of pregnancy reduces the child’s weight at birth by 67 grams or 2.2%. Our heterogeneity analysis suggests that infants living in rural areas, born to poor and low-educated mothers are especially vulnerable to temperature shocks. |
| Keywords: | Temperature, Birth Weight, Intergenerational Effects, Vietnam |
| JEL: | I15 J13 O15 Q54 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110325&r= |
| By: | Elsby, Michael W.L. (University of Edinburgh); Smith, Jennifer C. (University of Warwick, CAGE, Migration Advisory Committee); Wadsworth, Jonathan (Centre for Economic Performance at the LSE, CReAM at UCL and IZA Bonn) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of population flows on labour market dynamics across immigrant and native-born populations in the United Kingdom. Population flows are large, and cyclical, driven first by the maturation of baby boom cohorts in the 1980s, and latterly by immigration in the 2000s. New measures of labour market flows by migrant status uncover both the flow origins of disparities in the levels and cyclicalities of immigrant and native labour market outcomes, as well as their more recent convergence. A novel dynamic accounting framework reveals that population flows have played a non-trivial role in the volatility of labour markets among both the UK-born and, especially, immigrants. |
| Keywords: | Immigration ; worker flows ; labour market dynamics JEL Classification: E24 ; J6 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1383&r= |
| By: | Gianandrea Lanzara; Matteo Santacesaria |
| Abstract: | We consider a spatial model where a continuous set of sellers (e.g. farmers) must choose one trading location in a discrete set (e.g. cities) in a subset of the plane. Locations differ in terms of productivity, and shipping costs depend on the underlying geography via very general distance functions. Our analysis combines tools from general equilibrium theory and computational geometry. The key insight is that, under Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) preferences, the equilibrium trading choices of farmers can be represented as a Voronoi tessellation with additive weights, where the weights are determined at the market equilibrium. Using this insight, we prove that an equilibrium partition of space into market areas exists and is unique for general underlying geographies, and we characterize their comparative statics in terms of the model parameters. Moreover, we develop a set of tools that are useful in empirical applications. We show that the model can be solved with a simple, and economically-interpretable, gradient-descent algorithm, and we discuss two metrics to evaluate the distance between tessellations. Finally, we provide an illustrative application to the case of Swiss cantons. |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2110.15849&r= |
| By: | Chaudhary, Amit (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | Misallocation of resources in an economy makes firms less productive. I document the roles of heterogeneity, sorting, and complementarity in a framework where workers, managers, and firms interact to shape productivity. The approach I follow uses the movement of workers and managers across firms to identify the distribution of productivity. I webscraped novel microdata of crime reports from the Indian police department and combined them with the worker-level measurement of productivity. Using this data I show that the third source of heterogeneity in the form of manager ability is an important driver of differences in firm productivity. I empirically identify complementarities between workers, managers, and firms using my estimation methodology. Counterfactual results show that reallocating workers by applying a positive assortative sorting rule can increase police department productivity by 10%. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1377&r= |
| By: | van Lieshout, R.N.; van den Akker, J.M.; R. Mendes Borges; T. Druijf; Quaglietta, E. |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effectiveness of decentralized strategies for dispatching rolling stock and train drivers in a railway system. Such strategies give operators a robust alternative in case centralized control fails due to an abundance of infrastructure or rolling stock disruptions or information system malfunctions. We test the performance of four rolling stock and two driver dispatching strategies in a microscopic simulation. Our test case is a part of the Dutch railway network, containing eleven stations linked by four train lines. We find that with the decentralized dispatching strategies, target frequencies of the lines are approximately met and train services are highly regular without large delays. Especially strategies that allow rolling stock to switch between lines result in a high performance |
| Keywords: | decentralized control, local dispatching, microscopic simulation, rescheduling |
| Date: | 2021–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ems:eureir:136996&r= |
| By: | Seger, Julian |
| Abstract: | Companies are increasingly faced with a dynamic business environment. Fundamental structural changes overlap with economic cycles and force decision-makers to act under uncertainty. This situation challenges corporate real estate management to adapt the provision of space to the new corporate situation. In this context, one of the most critical decisions represents the choice between the provision forms of ownership, rental or leasing. In the past, European companies in particular have held ownership to a large extent. However, doubts have arisen as to whether this strategy should be continued. Owning property is considered to be highly inflexible as it can often only be sold with a time delay or at a discount in the event of a quantitative change in space demand. This represents a first possible contradiction to the progressively dynamic corporate environment. Accordingly, this paper addresses the question whether the role of ownership alters in an environment charac-terised by change. To answer this question, six studies were conducted and summarised in five articles. In order to understand adjustments in provision strategy, it is necessary to understand its impact on corporate success. Maximisation of the company’s success represents the guiding motive for adapting the provision of space to environmental changes. Here, the first article develops a holistic framework for the relationship between corporate real estate management and corporate success as well as empirically testing its validity. This understanding, in turn, forms the basis for the subsequent studies and allows initial conclusions to be drawn about the impact of holding property on corporate success. In the three subsequent articles (2-4), which focus on Germany, the UK and Europe as a whole, a first step is to use balance sheet ratios to illustrate the role that real estate ownership has played for non-property companies in recent decades. Against the background of an increasingly dynamic corporate environment, possible changes over time would support the theory regarding the changing role of real estate ownership. An empirical investigation of real estate ownership and its influence on capital market performance allows initial insights about the importance of ownership strategy for corporate success. Although up to this point the articles pursue a similar objective, they then attempt to map the importance of real estate ownership for corporate success with different foci of investigation depending on the corporate situation. Thus, Article 2 aims to show that the contribution of real estate ownership to success depends not only on the core business as previous studies have shown, but also on additional business segments in which companies operate. This is of high interest because companies are increasingly expanding their existing activities with services by offering integrated solutions, resulting in new requirements for the provision of space. In contrast, Article 3 addresses the question of whether holding real estate actually reduces flexibility and, therefore, has a negative impact on a company’s success in the event of economic fluctuations. For this purpose, the impact of real estate ownership during economic upswings and downturns is to be compared. Article 4 then ties in with this line of argument. Due to the previously described long-term nature and difficult revisability, the importance of property should change, especially for companies under uncertainty. Thus, it should be shown that companies anticipate uncertainty by restraining their investment behaviour. If firms were to continue to hold on to property under uncertainty, then this could have a negative impact on their performance. The concluding Article 5 extends the previous research by establishing a link between current structural change and ownership strategy. Through a comprehensive survey of CREM decision-makers, companies are grouped according to the extent of their affection by structural change and examined with regard to a possible reaction in their ownership strategy. A differentiated analysis according to types of use and a query of ownership-reducing measures provides a more detailed insight into the types of use for which an ownership reduction could be considered as well as for how this could be implemented. This dissertation thus expands previous discussions regarding the advantageousness of real estate ownership by explicitly including the increasingly dynamic and uncertain corporate environment. At the same time, the underlying work complements previous studies focusing on Anglo-American and Asian markets by adding a European perspective. This not only provides a valuable contribution to knowledge but, in parallel, these studies provide practice-relevant insights into the possible consequences of adhering to or adapting current ownership strategies. However, the knowledge gained is not only relevant for non-property companies. An adapted ownership strategy would also have overall real estate economic implications for investors as well as service providers. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:129132&r= |
| By: | Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti; Yiliang Li |
| Abstract: | Lagging labor reallocations outside agriculture amid sustained low agricultural productivity have been a key feature in the Philippines over the past 15 years. An analysis of the labor adjustments in and out of agriculture shows that a variety of factors have influenced this process. We find that the widening of wage differentials with non-agricultural sectors, improvements in labor market efficiency, and better transport infrastructure are largely associated with growing outflows of labor from agriculture, whilst the lack of post-primary education and the presence of agricultural clusters hinder such outflows. In contrast to the traditional view that agricultural employment outflows are largely driven by productivity differences and wage differentials, our results emphasize the roles of education as well as transport infrastructure in facilitating labor reallocations from agriculture to non-agriculture. |
| Keywords: | real wage wage differential; time series trend; efficiency index; job separation; agriculture performance; labor adjustment; Labor markets; Agricultural sector; Employment; Real wages; Global |
| Date: | 2021–08–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/220&r= |
| By: | Jones, Kelly M. (American University); Pineda-Torres, Mayra (Texas A&M University) |
| Abstract: | Targeted regulations of abortion providers (TRAP laws) are the fastest growing abortion restriction in the U.S. These often result in clinic closures, limiting abortion access. We study how women's exposure to these laws in adolescence affects their fertility and educational attainment. For this study, we codify the legal history of all TRAP laws ever implemented. We explore the impacts of TRAP laws on teen births using an event-study analysis and stacked differences-in-differences methodology to avoid issues of negative weighting inherent in two-way fixed effects approaches. Consistent with other evidence on abortion access, we find that impacts on births are large and robust for Black women. Black teen births in states that implemented TRAP laws increased by 3 percent relative to changes in states without these restrictions. We offer evidence that these impacts are driven by reductions in abortion access, abortion use, and contraception use among Black teens. We further document that adolescent exposure to TRAP laws has downstream impacts on education. We find that Black women first exposed to TRAP laws before age 18 are 1 to 3 percentage points less likely to initiate and complete college. This study documents the important role that abortion access plays in reducing the harmful economic impacts of unintended teen motherhood. The findings suggest that modern abortion restrictions are harming women's efforts at economic advancement and are perpetuating racial inequality. |
| Keywords: | fertility, education, abortion, adolescence, race |
| JEL: | J13 I24 I14 J15 J16 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14837&r= |
| By: | TSURUTA Daisuke |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate to what extent banks use public credit guaranteed loans for distant small business borrowers. Existing studies argue that when banks provide loans for these borrowers, the information asymmetry between them is severe. These studies then empirically show how banks can mitigate this problem. In this analysis, we focus instead on the role of Japan's public credit guarantee scheme in mitigating these same information problems. If banks provide credit guaranteed loans, they suffer few losses from borrower default because the public credit guarantee corporations (not the small business borrowers) make payments to the banks. Therefore, banks can provide loans to distant borrowers even if the information asymmetry is severe. To conduct our analysis, we use semiannual bank-region level data from Japan, which allows us to control for several unobserved fixed effects. The results show that the credit guarantee loan size is larger if banks provide loans to distant small business borrowers. In addition, the default rate is higher when banks provide credit guaranteed loans to distant borrowers. These results suggest that banks successfully mitigate the losses of distant lending using the public credit guarantee scheme. |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:21083&r= |
| By: | Graciela Schiliuk (ESM); Tullio Buccellato (ESM); Jens Lapointe-Rohde (ESM); Georgios Palaiodimos (ESM); Habib Attia (Arab Monetary Fund (AMF)); Marthe Memoracion Hinojales (ASEAN + 3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO)); Catharine Kho (ASEAN + 3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO)); Gennady Vasiliev (Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD)); Tigran Kostanyan (Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD)); Alexandra de Carvalho (European Commission); Benedetta Guerzoni (European Commission); Carlos Giraldo (Latin American Reserve Fund (FLAR)); Iader Giraldo (Latin American Reserve Fund (FLAR)) |
| Abstract: | This study compares responses to the Covid-19 crisis across six regions covered by Regional Financing Arrangements (RFAs), outlining the pandemic’s economic impact, policy measures implemented by authorities to limit its economic damage, and the institutional actions by the RFAs to support members through the initial stages of the crisis. It is the result of a joint effort by RFA staff and underscores the institutions’ continuous efforts to cooperate closely through the sharing of crisis experiences. |
| Date: | 2021–11–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stm:dpaper:18&r= |
| By: | Biewen, Martin (University of Tuebingen); Glaisner, Stefan (University of Tübingen); Kleimann, Rolf (IAW Tübingen) |
| Abstract: | This note proposes a convenient graphical representation of the wealth distribution and illustrates it with data from the Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS). We also present more evidence on the role of homeownership for wealth inequality in euro area countries. |
| Keywords: | wealth inequality, transformation, homeownership |
| JEL: | D31 C14 R3 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14842&r= |
| By: | Janet Currie; Esmée Zwiers |
| Abstract: | Using data on over 420,000 first time Dutch mothers, we examine the effects of postpartum antidepressant use on a wide range of maternal outcomes including further treatment for severe mental illness, labor market outcomes, and family formation. We exploit rules which state that Dutch general practitioners (GPs) must be available to make house calls to their patients. In practice many therefore use postal code boundaries to limit their practices. We instrument a postpartum woman’s receipt of antidepressants with the propensity to prescribe antidepressants to women aged 46 to 65 among GPs in her postal code. Ordinary Least Squares estimates suggest highly negative effects of postpartum treatment with antidepressants, but this is mainly due to selection into treatment. Instrumental variable estimates suggest that the marginal patient treated with postpartum antidepressants is much more likely to continue taking antidepressants long-term, with little evidence of effects on other outcomes. |
| JEL: | I1 J19 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29439&r= |
| By: | Moritz, Laura; Kuhn, Lena; Bobojonov, Ihtiyor; Glauben, Thomas |
| Keywords: | Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae21:315266&r= |
| By: | Blattner, Laura (Stanford University); Nelson, Scott (Chicago Booth) |
| Abstract: | We show that lenders face more uncertainty when assessing default risk of historically under-served groups in US credit markets and that this information disparity is a quantitatively important driver of inefficient and unequal credit market outcomes. We first document that widely used credit scores are statistically noisier indicators of default risk for historically under-served groups. This noise emerges primarily through the explanatory power of the underlying credit report data (e.g., thin credit files), not through issues with model fit (e.g., the inability to include protected class in the scoring model). Estimating a structural model of lending with heterogeneity in information, we quantify the gains from addressing these information disparities for the US mortgage market. We find that equalizing the precision of credit scores can reduce disparities in approval rates and in credit misallocation for disadvantaged groups by approximately half. |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3978&r= |
| By: | Galanakis, Yannis |
| Abstract: | This paper examines a problem of worker misallocation into jobs. A theoretical model, allowing for heterogeneous workers and firms, shows that job search frictions generate mismatch between employees and employers. In the empirical analysis, the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), the UK household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) and British Cohort Study 1970 (BCS70) data are used to measure the incidence of mismatch, how it changes over time and whether it can be explained by unobserved ability. Results show that (i) the incidence of mismatch increases after the Great Recession. (ii) Individual transitions to/from matching take place due to workers' occupational mobility and over-time skills development. (iii) Employees can find better jobs or their mobility occurs earlier than the aggregate change of skills. (iv) Controlling for individual heterogeneity, measured by cognitive and non-cognitive skill test scores throughout childhood, does not decrease the incidence of mismatch. This suggests that unobserved productivity does not generate mismatch in the labour market. |
| Keywords: | Human Capital Mismatch,frictions,individual heterogeneity |
| JEL: | I26 J24 J31 J64 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:976&r= |
| By: | Ellora Derenoncourt; Clemens Noelke; David Weil; Bledi Taska |
| Abstract: | Low unionization rates, a falling real federal minimum wage, and outsourcing have hampered wage growth in the low-wage sector in the US. In recent years, a number of private employers have opted to institute or raise company-wide minimum wages for their employees, sometimes in response to public pressure. To what extent do wage-setting changes at major employers spill over to other employers, and what are the broader labor market effects of these policies? In this paper, we study recent minimum wages by Amazon, Walmart, Target, CVS, and Costco using data from millions of online job ads and employee surveys. We document that these policies induced wage increases at low-wage jobs at other employers, where the modal response was to match the wage announced by the large retailer. In the case of Amazon’s $15 minimum wage in October 2018, our estimates imply that a 10% increase in Amazon’s advertised hourly wages led to an average increase of 2.3% among other employers in the same commuting zone. Using the CPS, we estimate wage increases in exposed jobs in line with our magnitudes from employee surveys and find that large employer minimum wage policies led to small but precisely estimated declines in employment, with employment elasticities ranging from -0.04 to -0.13. Large employer minimum wage announcements influenced wages more broadly. The magnitude of these wage spillovers cannot easily be explained by standard competitive pressures, suggesting a role for both market power and norms in wage determination. |
| JEL: | J31 J42 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29425&r= |
| By: | Oded Gurantz (University of Missouri); Ryan Sakoda (University of Iowa); Sahyak Sarkar (University of California, Davis) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how financial aid reform based on postsecondary institutional performance impacts student choice. Federal and state regulations often reflect concerns about the private, for-profit sector’s poor employment outcomes and high loan defaults, despite the sector’s possible theoretical advantages. We use student-level data to examine how eliminating public subsidies to attend low-performing for-profit institutions impacts students’ college enrollment and completion behavior. Beginning in 2011, California tightened eligibility standards for their state aid program, effectively eliminating most for-profit eligibility. Linking data on aid application to administrative payment and postsecondary enrollment records, this paper utilizes a difference-in differences strategy to investigate students’ enrollment and degree completion responses to changes in subsidies. We find that restricting the use of the Cal Grant at for-profit institutions resulted in significant state savings but led to relatively small changes in students’ postsecondary trajectories. For older, nontraditional students we find no impact on enrollment or degree completion outcomes. Similarly, for high school graduates, we find that for-profit enrollment remains strong. Unlike the older, nontraditional students, however, there is some evidence of declines in for-profit degree completion and increased enrollment at community colleges among the high school graduates, but these results are fairly small and sensitive to empirical specification. Overall, our results suggest that both traditional and nontraditional students have relatively inelastic preferences for for-profit colleges under aid-restricting policies. |
| Keywords: | financial aid reform, postsecondary education, gainful employment, consumer protection |
| JEL: | I22 I23 I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upj:weupjo:21-356&r= |
| By: | Bertin Martens; Geoffrey Parker; Georgios Petropoulos; Marshall Van Alstyne |
| Abstract: | Our paper has benefitted from inspiring discussions with Erik Brynjolfsson, Luis Cabral, Rebecca Christie, Maria Demertzis, Erika Douglas, Nestor Duch-Brown, Justus Haucap, Jan Krämer , Maciej Sobolewski, Sebastian Steffen, Tommaso Valletti, Reinhilde Veugelers, Guntram Wolff as well as participants at Ascola 2021, Yale University’s Big Tech and Antitrust Conference 2020, OECD Competition Committee Hearing Dec. 2020, Bruegel, Digital Markets Competition Forum at Copenhagen Business School 16 June 2021, and the... |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:wpaper:45784&r= |
| By: | Yulong Chen; Liyuan Ma; Peter F. Orazem (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University) |
| Abstract: | The federal government has invested $60 billion thus far in rural broadband deployment, and, recently, FCC chairman Ajit Pai launched the Rural Digital Opportunity Fund, which will add up to $20.4 billion to further expand broadband in underserved rural areas. However, broadband expansion may not reverse the decades-long population shift from rural to urban markets and it does not affect all economic sectors equally. Chen, Ma, and Orazem look at the overall effect of broadband on net rural firm entry and find that the construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, real estate, and arts and entertainment industries see the most positive benefits, but the broadband effect is too small to reverse the 70-year long rural to urban shift in population and economic activity. |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ias:cpaper:apr-spring-2020-4&r= |
| By: | Sibabrata Das; Mr. Saad N Quayyum; Mr. Tamim Bayoumi |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the impact of natural disasters on per-capita GDP growth. Using a quantile regressions and growth-at-risk approach, the paper examines the impact of disasters and policy choices on the distribution of growth rather than simply its average. We find that countries that have in place disaster preparedness mechanisms and lower public debt have lower probability of witnessing a significant drop in growth as a consequence of a natural disaster, but our innovative methodology in this paper finds that the two policies are complements since their effectiveness vary across different disaster scenarios. While both are helpful for small to mid-size disasters, lower debt—and hence more fiscal space—is more beneficial in the face of very large disasters. A balanced strategy would thus involve both policies. |
| Date: | 2021–09–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/234&r= |
| By: | Rossi, Martin; Munyo, Ignacio |
| Abstract: | We exploit a series of natural experiments that use real crime data to investigate the effect of a violation of expectancies on violent crime. We study two types of violation of expectancies that generate the emotions of frustration and euphoria. Our empirical designs exploit differential expectations (as measured by the odds of soccer games in the betting market) while maintaining the outcome unchanged (a loss in a soccer game for frustration, a win in a soccer game for euphoria). We find that frustration is followed by a spike in violent crime whereas euphoria is followed by a reduction in violent crime. The two effects are concentrated in a narrow time window after the end of the game: one hour. |
| Keywords: | violation of expectancies; soccer; natural experiment; robbery; theft; aggression |
| JEL: | K42 |
| Date: | 2021–11–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110533&r= |
| By: | Dino Rizzi (Department of Economics, University Of Venice CÃ Foscari); Michele Zanette (Department of Economics, University Of Venice CÃ Foscari) |
| Abstract: | The paper aims to analyse the extent to which the adoption of best practice policies could improve the efficiency of Italian Regional Healthcare Systems (RHSs) and reduce public healthcare expenditures. By means of a stochastic frontier model we estimate the RHSs’ technical inefficiency and its determinants using a panel data of 16 regions over the period 2010-2016. We use the Essential Levels of Care (LEA) scores computed by the Ministry of Health as a proxy for the RHSs’ output and public healthcare expenditure as the main input. The level of inefficiency is a function of a set of variables summarising the organisational arrangements implemented by RHS policymakers. The results allow us to identify the best-practice policy, defined as the set of observable organisational arrangements that maximises aggregate efficiency. Adoption of the best-practice policy by all RHSs leads to potential efficiency gains of 1.5 per cent on average (from 93.4 per cent to 94.9 per cent) and to potential healthcare expenditure savings of 1.8 billion euro in 2016 (1.77 per cent of current expenditures). |
| Keywords: | Healthcare expenditure, regional healthcare systems, efficiency, LEA scores |
| JEL: | H51 H75 I18 R50 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2021:27&r= |
| By: | Valentine Jacobs (Université de Mons (humanOrg) and Université libre de Bruxelles (CEBRIG and DULBEA)); François Rycx (Université libre de Bruxelles (CEBRIG and DULBEA), GLO, humanOrg, IRES and IZA); Mélanie Volral (Université de Mons (humanOrg) and DULBEA) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the influence of educational mismatch on wages according to workers’ region of birth, taking advantage of our access to rich matched employer-employee data for the Belgian private sector for the period 1999-2010. Using a fine-grained approach to measuring educational mismatch and controlling for a large set of covariates, we first find that workers born in developed countries benefit from positive wage returns to their years of attained-, required and over-education, and that these returns are significantly higher for them than for their peers born in developing countries. Second, our results show that the wage return to a year of over-education is positive but lower than that to a year of required education. This suggests that over-educated workers suffer a wage penalty compared to their well-matched former classmates (i.e. workers with the same level of education in jobs that match their education). However, the magnitude of this wage penalty is found to vary considerably depending on the origin of the workers. Indeed, all else being equal, our estimates show that it is much greater for workers from developing countries – especially for those born in Africa and the Middle and Near East – than for those from developed countries. Regardless of workers’ origin, our estimates further indicate that the wage penalty associated with over-education is higher for workers who: i) have attained tertiary education, ii) are male, iii) have more seniority in employment, iv) are employed in smaller firms, and v) are covered by a collective agreement at the firm level. Yet, whatever the moderating variable under consideration, the estimates also show that the wage penalty associated with over-education remains higher for workers born in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | Immigrants, educational mismatch, wage gap, linked employer-employee data |
| JEL: | I24 I26 J15 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2021–10–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2021025&r= |
| By: | Berta, P.; Bratti, M.; Fiorio, C.V.; Pisoni, E.; Verzillo, S. |
| Abstract: | Does the organisation of healthcare systems affect health outcomes? To answer this question, we analysed the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic by focusing on mortality rate outcomes and exploited the heterogeneity of the healthcare organisational models among Italian regions, which makes Italy an ideal "laboratory". Within a common national healthcare system, Italian regions are allowed large autonomy to organise themselves as mixed-markets based on choice and competition, network or centralised leadership models, each delivering different responses to the Covid-19 emergency. Exploiting the discontinuity of healthcare organisational models across the Italian regional borders around Lombardy - the region that most convincingly embraced the mixed-market model fostering competition among health service providers - we applied a difference in geographic regression discontinuity design (DiD-GRDD) to compare mortality rates in 2020 of Lombardy's municipalities with that of neighbouring municipalities in other regions and also exploited the pre-crisis period (2017-2019). Our analysis shows that mortality rates in Lombardy during the first wave were higher by 1-2 percentage points among the population of residents aged 80 years or more, compared to the past, as opposed to regions adopting different organisational models. The mortality rate differential disappeared during the second wave following the implementation of a national policy based on risk zones, limiting mobility and taking stock of the experience developed during the first wave. Finally, by investigating the channels causing higher mortality during the first wave, we show that the role of organisational model differences vanishes, as differential mortality is mostly explained by the decision of the Lombardy regional government to use care homes for hosting Covid-19 patients and reduce the excess demand on the hospital system. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19; mortality; administrative borders; regions; Italy; |
| JEL: | I10 H12 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:21/21&r= |
| By: | Li, Jiaqi (Department of Economics, The University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | This paper documents large racial differences in the child penalty. Following first childbirth, Black women experience a significantly smaller reduction in labour supply, compared to white women. Most of the racial differences cannot be explained by economic and demographic variables, except household non-labour income. Furthermore, such racial difference widens when controlling for maternal years of schooling, occupation and industries. Finally, it shows that racial difference in child penalty is not correlated with the racial difference in gender norms. |
| Keywords: | Race ; Child Penalty ; Gender Norm ; Non-labour Income JEL Classification: J13 ; J15 ; J16 ; J22 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1382&r= |
| By: | Nchofoung, Tii; Asongu, Simplice; Njamen Kengdo, Arsène; Achuo, Elvis |
| Abstract: | The objectives of this paper are to verify the linear and the non-linear effects of infrastructural development on inclusive human development in Africa. The results of the system GMM estimations show a positive effect of infrastructural development on inclusive development across all the infrastructural development indexes employed, except the ICT infrastructural composite index which presents an insignificant negative effect. Besides, a non-linear effect of infrastructures on inclusive development was established across all the infrastructure indicators except for the ICT indicator. Negative thresholds for complementary policies are established for the African Infrastructure Development Index (AIDI) and the transport index while positive thresholds are apparent for the electricity index and the water and sanitation infrastructure index (WSS). Accordingly, in order to sustain the positive incidence of the AIDI and transport index on human development, complementary policies should be engaged to avoid an overall negative effect on human development when the indexes are respectively, 31.12% and 25.56%. In the same vein, the electricity index and WSSI should exceed critical levels of respectively 49.79% and 41.92%, to engender an overall positive effect on inclusive human development. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure; Inclusive development: Africa |
| JEL: | C23 I0 N67 N77 O55 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110614&r= |
| By: | Che, Yuyuan; Feng, Hongli; Hennessy, David |
| Keywords: | Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Livestock Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae21:315123&r= |