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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Wukuang Cun; M. Hashem Pesaran |
| Abstract: | This paper develops and solves a spatiotemporal equilibrium model in which regional wages and house prices are determined jointly with location-to-location migration flows. The agent’s optimal location choice and the resultant migration process are shown to be Markovian, with the transition probabilities across all location pairs given as non-linear functions of wage and housing cost differentials, endogenously responding to migration flows. The model can be used for the analysis of spatial distribution of population, income, and house prices, as well as for the analysis of the entire dynamic process of shock spill-over effects in regional economies through location-to-location migration. The model is estimated on a panel of 48 mainland U.S. states and the District of Columbia over the training sample (1976-1999) and is shown to fit the data well over the evaluation sample (2000-2014). The estimated model is then used to analyse the size and speed of spatial spill-over effects by computing spatiotemporal impulse responses of positive productivity and land-supply shocks to California, Texas, and Florida. The sensitivity of the results to migration elasticity, housing depreciation rate and local land supply conditions is also investigated. |
| Keywords: | location choice, joint determination of migration and house prices, spatiotemporal impulse responses, land-use deregulation, counterfactual exercise, population allocation, productivity and land supply shocks, California, Texas and Florida |
| JEL: | E00 R23 R31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9343&r= |
| By: | NaYoung Hwang; Brian Kisida; Cory Koedel (Department of Economics, University of Missouri) |
| Abstract: | We use administrative data from Indiana to test whether student-teacher rematches in consecutive years affect student achievement. Using models that control for student and teacher fixed effects, we show that student-teacher rematches increase test scores in math and English Language Arts. The positive effects of rematching are constant over elementary and middle-school grades and more pronounced for historically underserved students. Our findings directly support strategies that aim to keep students and teachers together for longer periods of time during K-12 education. They are also consistent with the broader hypothesis that students benefit from increased student-teacher familiarity. |
| Keywords: | student-teacher rematching, student-teacher familiarity; teacher quality |
| JEL: | I20 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:umc:wpaper:2116&r= |
| By: | Waldemar Marz; Suphi Sen |
| Abstract: | The long-term trend toward more work from home due to digitization has found a strong new driver, the Covid-19 pandemic. The profound change in urban mobility patterns supports the often-held view that reducing the number of commuting trips can lower carbon emissions to a certain degree. We investigate this optimistic view from a long-run perspective in a monocentric urban model with household-level vehicle choice based on fuel efficiency. In the medium run, fewer trips lead to the choice of less fuel-efficient vehicles. In addition, with lower annual driving costs to the city center, households change their location in the long run toward longer commuting trips, but cheaper housing, implying an adjustment in the real-estate market. These changes in vehicle choice and the urban form largely eliminate the initial environmental benefits. Binding fuel economy standards completely prevent the medium-run drop in fuel efficiency, but slightly exacerbate the long-term increase in commuting trip length. |
| Keywords: | telecommuting, monocentric city, fuel economy, carbon emissions |
| JEL: | H23 L90 Q48 R40 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9357&r= |
| By: | Fuchsman, Dillon (Sinquefield Center for Applied Economic Research, Saint Louis University); Sass, Tim (Georgia State University); Zamarro, Gema (University of Arkansas) |
| Abstract: | Teacher turnover has adverse consequences for student achievement and imposes large financial costs for schools. Some have argued that high-stakes testing may lower teachers’ satisfaction with their jobs and could be a major contributor to teacher attrition. In this paper, we exploit changes in the tested grades and subjects in Georgia to study the effects of eliminating high-stakes testing on teacher turnover and the distribution of teachers across grades and schools. To measure the effect of testing pressures on teacher mobility choices we use a "difference-in-differences" approach, comparing changes in mobility over time in grades/subjects that discontinue testing vis-à-vis grades/subjects that are always tested. Our results show that eliminating testing did not have an impact on the likelihood of leaving teaching, changing schools within a district, or moving between districts. We only uncover small negative effects on the likelihood of grade switching. However, we do find relevant positive effects on retention of beginning teachers in the profession. In particular, the average probability of exit for teachers with 0-4 years of experience fell from 14 to 13 percentage points for teachers in grades 1 and 2 and from 14 to 11 percentage points in grades 6 and 7. |
| Keywords: | teacher turnover; high-stakes testing; accountability pressure difference-in-differences approach |
| JEL: | I20 J20 |
| Date: | 2020–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:sluecr:2020_001&r= |
| By: | Richard Bluhm (Leibniz University Hannover); Christian (Lessmann); Paul (Schaudt) |
| Abstract: | We study the link between subnational capital cities and urban development using a global data set of hundreds of first-order administrative and capital city reforms from 1987 until 2018. We show that gaining subnational capital status has a sizable effect on city growth in the medium run. We provide new evidence that the effect of these reforms depends on locational fundamentals, such as market access, and that the effect is greater in countries where urbanization and industrialization occurred later. Consistent with both an influx of public investments and a private response of individuals and firms, we document that urban built-up, population, foreign aid, infrastructure, and foreign direct investment in several sectors increase once cities become subnational capitals. |
| Keywords: | capital cities, administrative reforms, economic geography, urban primacy |
| JEL: | H10 R11 R12 O1 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajr:sodwps:2021-11&r= |
| By: | Sean Tanner; Jenna Terrell; Emily Vislosky; Jonathan Gellar; Brian Gill |
| Abstract: | Predicting incoming enrollment is an ongoing concern for the School District of Philadelphia (SDP) and similar districts with school choice systems, substantial student mobility, or both. |
| Keywords: | attendance patterns, prediction |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:63a18bf538bd41f98d72ff91dd390339&r= |
| By: | Katharina Werner; Ludger Woessmann |
| Abstract: | If school closures and social-distancing experiences during the Covid-19 pandemic impeded children’s skill development, they may leave a lasting legacy in human capital. To understand the pandemic’s effects on school children, this paper combines a review of the emerging international literature with new evidence from German longitudinal time-use surveys. Based on the conceptual framework of an education production function, we cover evidence on child, parent, and school inputs and students’ cognitive and socio-emotional development. The German panel evidence shows that children’s learning time decreased severely during the first school closures, particularly for low-achieving students, and increased only slightly one year later. In a value-added model, learning time increases with daily online class instruction, but not with other school activities. The review shows substantial losses in cognitive skills on achievement tests, particularly for students from disadvantaged backgrounds. Socio-emotional wellbeing also declined in the short run. Structural models and reduced-form projections suggest that unless remediated, the school closures will persistently reduce skill development, lifetime income, and economic growth and increase inequality. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, school closures, education, schools, students, educational inequality |
| JEL: | I20 H52 J24 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9358&r= |
| By: | Bluhm, Richard; Hodler, Roland; Schaudt, Paul |
| Abstract: | We study the role of subnational borders and the importance of local majorities for local economic development. We exploit that France imposed a particular administrative structure on its Sub-Saharan African possessions in the early 20th century. The French government had little interest in pre-colonial political units. As a result, their colonial districts cut across ethnic homelands in a way that led to plausibly exogenous variation in an ethnic group's population share across colonial districts. We find that ethnic groups who were a local majority in most colonial districts, in which they were present, are more economically developed today. Furthermore, we show that the parts of ethnic homelands with a higher district-level population share are more economically developed today than other parts of the same homeland. We also provide evidence that the effects are persistent for various reasons, including the stickiness of subnational borders and higher infrastructure investments during colonial times. |
| Keywords: | Ethnic politics, local majorities, administrative-territorial structures, colonization, regional development, persistence |
| JEL: | D72 F54 H54 H75 N97 O10 R12 R50 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usg:econwp:2021:10&r= |
| By: | Ludwig von Auer; Mark Trede |
| Abstract: | This study introduces the urbanicity index of employment. Unlike traditional measures of urbanization (e.g., urbanization rate), the urbanicity index is distance-based and accounts for the scale aspect as well as the concentration aspect of urbanization. The concentration aspect can be decomposed into the intersectoral mobility of employment and the spatial mobility of sectors. These two types of mobility can be further factorized into the contributions of the various sectors of the economy. To demonstrate the usefulness of the urbanicity index, the present paper applies it to German administrative employment data. The analysis reveals that, contrary to what Germany's rather stagnant urbanization rates seem to imply, strong urbanization trends have occurred. Employees switched from rural sectors to urban sectors that expanded their rural production sites. |
| Keywords: | index, measurement, migration, rural-to-urban, urbanicity |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trr:wpaper:202104&r= |
| By: | Mounir Amdaoud; César Ducruet; Marc-Antoine Faure |
| Abstract: | The objective of this research is to examine the similarities between port traffic structure and economic structure of French port cities. Such an exercise is challenged by the core-periphery pattern of the French economy favouring transhipment. Based on the combination of Automated Identification System (AIS) data and employment data, it performs complementary analyses of the mutual specialization between ports and cities. Main results show that while larger cities handle more diversified traffic, the cross-specialization is blurred by the complexity of trade networks and supply chains. We then propose a novel methodology whereby the spatial unit of analysis is enlarged according to the type and volume of port traffic, thus considerably improving the statistical significance and economic meaningfulness of the observed linkages. |
| Keywords: | AIS; hinterland; maritime transport; port city; specialization; supply chain |
| JEL: | O18 L90 R40 R12 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2021-29&r= |
| By: | Hervás-oliver, José-luis; Parrilli, Mario Davide; Rodríguez-pose, Andrés; Sempere-ripoll, Francisca |
| Abstract: | European Union (EU) innovation policies have for long remained mostly research driven. The fundamental goal has been to achieve a rate of R&D investment of 3% of GDP. Small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) innovation, however, relies on a variety of internal sources —both R&D and non-R&D based— and external drivers, such as collaboration with other firms and research centres, and is profoundly influence by location and context. Given this multiplicity of innovation activities, this study argues that innovation policies fundamentally based on a place-blind increase of R&D investment may not deliver the best outcomes in regions where the capacity of SMEs is to benefit from R&D is limited. We posit that collaboration and regional specificities can play a greater role in determining SME innovation, beyond just R&D activities. Using data from the Regional Innovation Scoreboard (RIS), covering 220 regions across 22 European countries, we find that regions in Europe differ significantly in terms of SME innovation depending on their location. SMEs in more innovative regions benefit to a far greater extent from a combination of internal R&D, external collaboration of all sorts, and non-R&D inputs. SMEs in less innovative regions rely fundamentally on external sources and, particularly, on collaboration with other firms. Greater investment in public R&D does not always lead to improvements in regional SME innovation, regardless of context. Collaboration is a central innovation activity that can complement R&D, showing an even stronger effect on SME innovation than R&D. Hence, a more collaboration-based and place-sensitive policy is required to maximise SME innovation across the variety of European regional contexts. |
| Keywords: | regional innovation; SMEs; R&D; place-based; collaboration; EU regions |
| JEL: | O31 O32 L11 |
| Date: | 2021–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:112486&r= |
| By: | Francesco Avvisati |
| Abstract: | In 2020 and 2021, schooling, like many other aspects of life, has been heavily affected by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. During periods of school closure, education systems and schools have often been quick to organise remote support for home-based learning. But several observers have questioned the effectiveness of these schooling surrogates, either in general or for particular types of students. Initial data from national assessments confirm that the results of many students who experienced school closures (particularly those from disadvantaged backgrounds) lag behind those of similar students in previous school years.Learning losses and gains are often compared to the typical learning progression observed in normal times over a year of schooling. This paper shows how international data can be used to investigate learning losses and gains over a school year. |
| Date: | 2021–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduddd:115-en&r= |
| By: | Anthony Frigon; David L. Rigby; |
| Abstract: | A growing body of research in economic geography, international business management and related fields focuses on geographies of knowledge sourcing. This work examines the organizational structure of innovation activities within the firm, the mechanisms by which knowledge is extracted from various external sources and the geography of these different activities. We augment this literature by exploring knowledge sourcing within multilocational firms operating in the US using a unique dataset matching patent records to firm-level ownership and geographical data. The results add value to existing research in three ways. First, the establishments of multilocational corporations are shown to produce different kinds of knowledge in different locations. Second, the patents generated within a firm’s establishments are linked to the knowledge stocks of the cities where they operate, supporting a vision of geographical knowledge sourcing. Third, the complexity of knowledge produced within the firm as a whole is positively related to the number of establishments in which multilocational firms undertake innovation activities. In sum these data suggest that multilocational firms distribute their innovation activities across locations in order to secure access to local pools of tacit knowledge. The complexity value of firms’ knowledge production is enhanced as a result of this spatial strategy. |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2132&r= |
| By: | Daunfeldt, Sven-Olov (Institute of Retail Economics (Handelns Forskningsinstitut)); Mihaescu, Oana (Institute of Retail Economics (Handelns Forskningsinstitut)); Rudholm, Niklas (Institute of Retail Economics (Handelns Forskningsinstitut)) |
| Abstract: | : Business improvement districts (BIDs) have emerged as possible solutions for the revitalization of urban areas characterized by economic decline. Using a difference-in differences model, we investigate the effects of a voluntary Swedish BID programme in five cities on firm performance, urban safety, and place attractiveness – both within and outside the BID. We find that the BID programme increased labour productivity for incumbent firms within the BID by 7.62%, mainly through an increase in revenues. However, the positive effect of the BID programme on firm performance is largely transitory, decreasing sharply during the third year and then becoming insignificant. We find no statistically significant impacts on firm performance outside the geographical boundaries of the BIDs. The results also suggest that fewer crimes were committed in the BIDs, as the estimates for all years are negative, though they are significant only for the fourth year after BID implementation. Finally, we detect no statistically significant effects of the BID programme on property values either within or outside the designated BIDs. |
| Keywords: | : Business improvement district; public–private partnerships; firm performance; labour productivity; property values; crime; difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | H44 L11 L25 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2021–10–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:hfiwps:0024&r= |
| By: | Moritz Kuhn (University of Bonn, Department of Economics); Iourii Manovskii (University of Pennsylvania, Department of Economics); Xincheng Qiu (University of Pennsylvania, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Spatial differences in labor market performance are large and highly persistent. Using data from the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom, we document striking similarities in spatial differences in unemployment, vacancies, job finding, and job filling within each country. This robust set of facts guides and disciplines the development of a theory of local labor market performance. We find that a spatial version of a Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model with endogenous separations and on-the-job search quantitatively accounts for all the documented empirical regularities. The model also quantitatively rationalizes why differences in job-separation rates have primary importance in inducing differences in unemployment across space while changes in the job-finding rate are the main driver in unemployment fluctuations over the business cycle. |
| Keywords: | Local Labor Markets, Unemployment, Vacancies, Search and Matching |
| JEL: | J63 J64 E24 E32 R13 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:122&r= |
| By: | Chen, Zhenshan; Towe, Charles A. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Research Methods/Statistical Methods, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:314031&r= |
| By: | Cáceres, Julio; Giolito, Eugenio P. |
| Abstract: | Using administrative data for Chile, we study the impact of School Starting Age (SSA) on the characteristics of the school of rst enrollment. After addressing the usual concerns of endogeneity using minimum age requirements and an RD-design, we uncover gains associated with a delay of school entry at the start of the student's school life. SSA is associated withan enrollment in a school with an approximately 0.1 standard deviations higher average in standardized test scores, an increase of approximately 0.17 years in the average education of the peers' parents, and an increase of 4 percentage points in the probability of being enrolled in a private school. The heterogeneity analysis by parents' education reveals the largest gain in the probability of enrollment in a voucher school among less-educated families. We also show that the impact on school's standardized test scores occurs among girls. This heterogeneity by parents' education and student's gender di ers from that reported in previous studies. |
| Keywords: | Latin America; Chile; Early Entry; Schools' Characteristics |
| JEL: | A21 I24 I25 I28 |
| Date: | 2021–10–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:werepe:33480&r= |
| By: | Zhu, Di; Liu, Yu; Yao, Xin; Fischer, Manfred M. |
| Abstract: | Geospatial artificial intelligence (GeoAI) has emerged as a subfield of GIScience that uses artificial intelligence approaches and machine learning techniques for geographic knowledge discovery. The non-regularity of data structures has recently led to different variants of graph neural networks in the field of computer science, with graph convolutional neural networks being one of the most prominent that operate on non- euclidean structured data where the numbers of nodes connections vary and the nodes are unordered. These networks use graph convolution - commonly known as filters or kernels - in place of general matrix multiplication in at least one of their layers. This paper suggests spatial regression graph convolutional neural networks (SRGCNNs) as a deep learning paradigm that is capable of handling a wide range of geographical tasks where multivariate spatial data needs modeling and prediction. The feasibility of SRGCNNs lies in the feature propagation mechanisms, the spatial locality nature, and a semi-supervised training strategy. In the experiments, this paper demonstrates the operation of SRGCNNs with social media check-in data in Beijing and house price data in San Diego. The results indicate that a well-trained SRGCNN model is capable of learning from samples and performing reasonable predictions for unobserved locations. The paper also presents the effectiveness of incorporating the idea of geographically weighted regression for handling heterogeneity between locations in the model approach. Compared to conventional spatial regression approaches, SRGCNN-based models tend to generate much more accurate and stable results, especially when the sampling ratio is low. This study offers to bridge the methodological gap between graph deep learning and spatial regression analytics. The proposed idea serves as an example to illustrate how spatial analytics can be combined with state-of-the-art deep learning models, and to enlighten future research at the front of GeoAI. |
| Date: | 2021–10–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wus046:8360&r= |
| By: | Jurva, Risto; Matinmikko-Blue, Marja; Outila, Tarja; Merisalo, Virve |
| Abstract: | Societies are experiencing large-scale transformation through digitalization programs covering all private and public sectors. Digitalization advances also the growing demands of sustainable development, in which nations and cities all over the world have set ambitious targets. Transportation is one the cornerstone verticals of cities and has attracted wide attention from various stakeholders developing services and solutions for digitalization. In general, ICT solutions are in the core of digitalization and trailblazing technologies have been developed to enable modern transportation services. 5G technology covering wireless connectivity, IoT sensor technology, distributed edge computing, artificial intelligence, high power computing and service platforms offers numerous opportunities to the development of sophisticated smart transportation services. However, to adopt a pervasive approach for the evolvement of digital transportation services, it is important to examine the system level point of view. Developing occasional services for various transport modes without targeted inter-operability of services, the result of digitalization of transportation can be extremely fragmented. This paper aims to highlight the top-down angle of research and development of the smart transportation system. The development requires seamless co-operation of researchers and specialists of transport systems, urban design and planning and wireless technologies to integrate transport infrastructure, 5G wireless communication infrastructure and traffic management systems to enable advanced digital services for all transport modes. Moreover, this article introduces the stakeholders recognized from transport systems, urban design and planning and wireless technologies. The role of each stakeholder is described a like. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb21:243151&r= |
| By: | Niccolò PIERI (Transport Policy, Impact Assessment and Economic Evaluation, European Commission); Millán DÃ AZ-FONCEA (Department of Management, University of Zaragoza (Spain)); Carmen MARCUELLO (Department of Management, University of Zaragoza (Spain)); Ermanno TORTIA (Department of Economy and Management, University of Trento (Italy)) |
| Abstract: | How do social incubators contribute to social innovation in cities? We wanted to understand what their role in the city and the neighborhoods is, how they position themselves in the process of providing answers to the local needs in the specific place they are located. The answers to these questions are built upon the identification of the processes, the organizations and the services provided by the social incubators. The relationships built and developed between social incubators and the social enterprises are identified to understand the role of these new typologies of organizations in urban neighborhoods. The analysis is performed by applying case study methodology involving four different social incubators in two cities: Brussels and Milan. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crc:wpaper:2017&r= |
| By: | Sam Trejo; Gloria Yeomans-Maldonado; Brian Jacob |
| Abstract: | Lead poisoning has well-known impacts for the developing brain of young children, with a large literature documenting the negative effects of elevated blood lead levels on academic and behavioral outcomes. In April of 2014, the municipal water source in Flint, Michigan was changed, causing lead from aging pipes to leach into the city’s drinking water. In this study, we use Michigan’s universe of longitudinal, student-level education records, combined with home water service line inspection data containing the location of lead pipes, to empirically examine the effect of the Flint Water Crisis on educational outcomes of Flint public school children. We leverage parallel causal identification strategies, a between-district synthetic control analysis and a within-Flint difference-in-differences analysis, to separate out the direct health effects of lead exposure from the broad effects of living in a community experiencing a crisis. Our results highlight a less well-appreciated consequence of the Flint Water Crisis – namely, the psychosocial effects of the crisis on the educational outcomes of school-age children. These findings suggest that cost estimates which rely only on the negative impact of direct lead exposure substantially underestimate the overall societal cost of the crisis. |
| JEL: | I10 I21 I28 I30 J01 J18 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29341&r= |
| By: | David Card; Jesse Rothstein; Moises Yi |
| Abstract: | We use longitudinal data from the LEHD to study the causal effect of location on earnings. We specify a model for log earnings that includes worker effects and fixed effects for different commuting zones (CZs) fully interacted with industry, allowing us to capture potential impacts of local specialization. Building on recent work on firm-specific wage setting, we show that a simple additive model provides a good approximation to observed changes in log earnings when people move across CZ’s and/or industries, though it takes a couple of quarters for migrants to fully realize the gains of a move. We also show that the earnings premiums for different CZ-industry pairs are nearly separable in industry and CZ, with statistically significant but very small interaction effects. Consistent with recent research from France, Spain and Germany, we find that two thirds of the variation in observed wage premiums for working in different CZs is attributable to skill-based sorting. Using separately estimated models for high and low education workers, we find that the locational premiums for the two groups are very similar. The degree of assortative matching across CZs is much larger for college-educated workers, however, leading to a positive correlation between measured returns to skill and CZ average wages or CZ size that is almost entirely due to sorting on unobserved skills within the college workforce. |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:21-32&r= |
| By: | Daria Denti; Alessandro Crociata; Alessandra Faggian |
| Abstract: | How local cultural activities influence development and human behaviour is gaining growing attention in economic geography. Small scale experimental evidence shows that cultural consumption is effective in countering hate. This is crucial, as hate, in turn, has a negative influence on the socioeconomic performance of places. Still, little is known on this, outside few more qualitative case studies. This paper provides a quantitative measure of the impact of cultural consumption on hate events in the Italian NUTS3 regions. IV estimation using a unique longitudinal database, with georeferenced hate manifestations and a population-based measure for cultural consumption, shows that cultural consumption determines a reduction in hate events. Our findings support the idea that cultural change acts a key enabling factor for people open-mindedness and inclusiveness of places. Moreover, our results hold even after various robustness checks, suggesting the need for policy interventions promoting cultural consumption. |
| Keywords: | hate, discontent, cultural economics, spillovers, social capital |
| JEL: | D31 H0 I J15 Z1 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2131&r= |
| By: | Erik Hornung; Guido Schwerdt; Maurizio Strazzeri |
| Abstract: | We investigate how the intensity of Ramadan affects educational outcomes by exploiting spatio-temporal variation in annual fasting hours. Longer fasting hours are related to increases in student performance in a panel of TIMMS test scores (1995–2019) across Muslim countries but not other countries. Results are confirmed in a panel of PISA test scores (2003–2018) allowing within country-wave comparisons of Muslim to non-Muslim students across Europe. We provide evidence consistent with the hypothesis that a demanding Ramadan during adolescence affects educational performance by facilitating formation of social capital and social identity via increased religious participation and shared experiences among students. |
| Keywords: | education, religion, religious participation, Ramadan, social identity, social capital, PISA, TIMMS |
| JEL: | I21 Z12 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9349&r= |
| By: | Andrew F. Haughwout; Benjamin Hyman; Or Shachar |
| Abstract: | We estimate the option value of municipal liquidity by studying bond market activity and public sector hiring decisions when government budgets are severely distressed. Using a regression discontinuity (RD) design, we exploit lending eligibility population cutoffs introduced by the federal sector’s Municipal Liquidity Facility (MLF) to study the effects of an emergency liquidity option on yields, primary debt issuance, and public sector employment. We find that while the announcement of the liquidity option improved overall municipal bond market functioning, lower-rated issuers additionally benefited from direct access to the facility—their bonds traded at higher prices and were issued more frequently, suggesting a potential credit-risk sharing channel on top of the Fed’s role as liquidity-provider of last resort. Local governments, by contrast, responded to emergency liquidity measures by recalling a greater share of service-providing government employees (mostly educational institution workers), but recalls were only sustained for higher-rated municipalities. This hiring responsiveness is consistent with the hypothesis that large government furloughs might have over-weighted the worst possible outcomes based on past experience. Together, the results suggest that municipalities would likely have been more distressed absent the emergency liquidity. |
| Keywords: | municipal debt; state and local governments; COVID-19; Federal Reserve lending facilities |
| JEL: | G14 G18 H74 |
| Date: | 2021–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:93156&r= |
| By: | Basco, Sergi; Domenech, Jordi; Roses, Joan R. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of a pandemic in a developing economy. Measured by excess deaths relative to the historical trend, the 1918 influenza in Spain was one of the most intense in Western Europe. However, aggregate output and consumption were only mildly affected. In this paper we assess the impact of the flu by exploiting within-country variation in “excess deaths” and we focus on the returns to factors of production. Our main result is that the effect of flu-related “excess deaths” on real wages is large, negative, and short-lived. The effects are heterogeneous across occupations, from null to a 15 per cent decline,concentrated in 1918. The negative effects are exacerbated in more urbanized provinces. In addition, we do not find effects of the flu on the returns to capital. Indeed, neither dividends nor real estate prices (houses and land) were negatively affected by flu-related increases in mortality. Our interpretation is that the Spanish Flu represented a negative demand shock that was mostly absorbed by workers, especially in more urbanized regions. |
| Keywords: | pandemics; Spanish flu; real wages; returns to capital |
| JEL: | E32 I00 N10 N30 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:104605&r= |
| By: | Ben-Gad, M.; Pearlman, J.; Sabuga, I. |
| Abstract: | We propose a general equilibrium framework that highlights the interaction of reserve requirements and a conventional monetary policy in a model that combines endogenous housing loan defaults and financial intermediation frictions due to the costs of enforcing contracts. We use the model to examine how the interaction of these policies affect (i) the credit and business cycle; (ii) the distribution of welfare between savers and borrowers; (iii) the overall welfare objectives when monetary and macroprudential policies are optimised together or separately. We find that models with an optimised reserve ratio rule are effective in reducing the sudden boom and bust of credit and the business cycle. We also find that there are a distributive implications of the introduction of reserve ratio where borrowers gain at the expense of savers. However, there is no difference in the overall welfare results whether monetary and macroprudential policies are optimised together or separately. |
| Keywords: | Reserve requirements; endogenous loan defaults; welfare |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cty:dpaper:21/04&r= |
| By: | Shacham, Enbal (Saint Louis University, College for Public Health and Social Justice); Scroggins, Steve (Sinquefield Center for Applied Economic Research, Saint Louis University); Ellis, Matthew (Saint Louis University, College for Public Health and Social Justice) |
| Abstract: | Objectives: Determine community characteristics, within the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, based on travel to the popular leisure destination, Lake of the Ozarks in Missouri, and racial-justice protest locations in St. Louis, Missouri during key dates in May 2020. Methods: Travel data was acquired from a U.S. marketing firm and consisted of anonymized and aggregated device GPS data. Sample inclusion was limited to residents of census-tracts within the City and County of St. Louis and St. Charles County, Missouri (n=384). Tract characteristics were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. Results: Tracts with higher proportion of residents traveling to protest locations were significantly more likely to have higher proportion of: non-white residents, residents with no health insurance, and residents working in healthcare support and food service. Conclusions: Based on characteristics, residents from tracts that had higher significant travel to protests are likely to be more adversely affected by the CoVID-19 pandemic. Further, significant differences in community characteristics highlight the racial inequities identified in CoVID-19 transmission. Policy Implications: Findings suggest it may be advantageous for local CoVID-19 mitigation efforts to adapt or collaborate with local racial-justice protesters. |
| Keywords: | Health Inequity; Socioeconomic Factors; Community-Acquired Infections; Spatio-Temporal Analysis |
| JEL: | I14 I18 |
| Date: | 2020–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:sluecr:2020_004&r= |
| By: | Julieta Bengochea Soria (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Emanuele Del Fava (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Victoria Prieto Rosas (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Emilio Zagheni (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Although the scarcity of accurate and accessible data on international migration flows typically prevents a full understanding of migratory patterns, this might not be the case for Latin America, where high-quality census data on migrant flows is publicly available through the project International Migration in Latina America (IMILA). However, such data has mostly been used for research at the regional level because of the fragmented nature of their availability and the lack of English documentation. To tackle this issue, we consolidated data from the IMILA collection to provide a harmonized dataset with five-year flows by country of birth, sex, and age group, for 19 countries of destination and five census waves. Moreover, comparing IMILA to other two available data sources on flows to Latin America, we showed that IMILA provides a more accurate assessment of migration flows from North America and Europe, enables a better quantification of minor migration flows, and enhances the visibility of female migration. |
| Keywords: | Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Paraguay, Uruguay, census data, data collection, data comparability, international migration, migration flow |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2021-019&r= |
| By: | Milsom, L.; Roland, I. |
| Abstract: | Exposure to Chinese import competition led to significant manufacturing job losses in the United States. Local labor markets, however, differ significantly in how they fared with respect to manufacturing employment. An important question is whether labor market institutions have an impact on the dynamic response of manufacturing employment to rising import penetration. We contribute to this debate by showing that minimum wages amplified the negative effect of Chinese import penetration on manufacturing employment in US local labor markets between 2000 and 2007. We develop a rigorous double-edged identification strategy. First, we construct shift-share instrumental variables to address the endogeneity of import penetration. Second, we use a border identification strategy to distinguish the effects of minimum wage policies from the effects of other local labor market characteristics that are unrelated to policy. Specifically, we rely on comparing commuting zones that are contiguous to each other but located in different states with different minimum wage policies. The approach essentially considers what happens to the response of manufacturing employment to import penetration when one crosses a policy border. |
| Keywords: | Import penetration, labor market institutions, minimum wages, manufacturing employment |
| JEL: | E24 F14 F16 J23 L60 R12 |
| Date: | 2021–10–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2170&r= |
| By: | Kyle Butts |
| Abstract: | This paper formalizes a common approach for estimating effects of treatment at a specific location using geocoded microdata. This estimator compares units immediately next to treatment (an inner-ring) to units just slightly further away (an outer-ring). I introduce intuitive assumptions needed to identify the average treatment effect among the affected units and illustrates pitfalls that occur when these assumptions fail. Since one of these assumptions requires knowledge of exactly how far treatment effects are experienced, I propose a new method that relaxes this assumption and allows for nonparametric estimation using partitioning-based least squares developed in Cattaneo et. al. (2019). Since treatment effects typically decay/change over distance, this estimator improves analysis by estimating a treatment effect curve as a function of distance from treatment. This is contrast to the traditional method which, at best, identifies the average effect of treatment. To illustrate the advantages of this method, I show that Linden and Rockoff (2008) under estimate the effects of increased crime risk on home values closest to the treatment and overestimate how far the effects extend by selecting a treatment ring that is too wide. |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2110.10192&r= |
| By: | Florian Bonnet; Aurélie Sotura |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes homogeneous annual series on the income distribution of French metropolitan départements for the period 1960-69 and 1986-2018. We rely on unpublished and newly digitised archives of the French Ministry of Finance. They consist of fiscal tabulations that are a summary of households’ income tax declarations. Based on these raw sources, we interpolate the whole income distribution of French metropolitan départements after 1986. Before 1986, we need more assumptions as only households liable to French income tax filed income tax declarations at that time. We propose a methodology to estimate the number and average income of non-taxable households before 1986 that also allows us to reconstruct the income distribution of French metropolitan départements for the period 1960-69. |
| Keywords: | Intraregional Inequalities, Income Distribution, Economic Geography, Economic History |
| JEL: | D30 N34 N94 R12 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:832&r= |
| By: | Valeria Pestean (Vasile Goldis Western University of Arad, Romania Author-2-Name: Author-2-Workplace-Name: Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | " Objective -This paper identifies and explains the types of interactions facilitated by teachers during online classes. Methodology/Technique - An important part of the paper is intended to classify the most successful techniques that stimulate synchronous and asynchronous interactions in teacher-student relationship in primary school. Finding - The research whose result is illustrated in this paper investigates the ways in which teachers overcome the temptation to limit the lesson only to content delivery and assessment. Novelty - The professional experience of the teachers included in this research is explored and capitalized on, in order to decide on the right ways for connection, as well as productive interaction in the online environment. Type of Paper - Empirical" |
| Date: | 2021–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:gjbssr601&r= |
| By: | Boucher, Michel |
| Keywords: | Public Economics |
| Date: | 2021–10–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ctrf31:314715&r= |
| By: | Christian Apenbrink (Bonn Graduate School of Economics, University of Bonn) |
| Abstract: | Do emotional responses to the spread of an infectious disease affect the quality of economic decision-making? In the context of an episode of heightened public concern about Ebola in the US in October 2014, I document that worrying about the possibility of an epidemic can impair cognitive function. My analysis relies on data from cognitive tests administered as part of a wave of survey interviews by a large US panel study, which I combine with measures of local concern about Ebola based on internet search volume. For identification, I exploit temporal and spatial variation in Ebola concern caused by the emergence of four cases of Ebola that were diagnosed in the US. Using proximity to the US cases as an instrumental variable, I show that the local level of Ebola concern individuals are exposed to at the time and place of the interview reduces their scores on the cognitive test. In additional analyses, I find no indication of fear-induced selection effects that could plausibly explain these results. Moreover, proximity to subsequent Ebola locations is unrelated to test scores for interviews conducted before the emergence of the first US case. My findings indicate that emotional responses to epidemics can entail a temporary cognitive cost even for individuals for whom the actual health risk never materializes. |
| Keywords: | Worry, Fear, Emotions, Ebola, Epidemics, Cognitive Function |
| JEL: | D91 D80 D01 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:120&r= |
| By: | Renato Soeiro; Alberto Pinto |
| Abstract: | The partition of society into groups, polarization, and social networks are part of most conversations today. How do they influence price competition? We discuss Bertrand duopoly equilibria with demand subject to network effects. Contrary to models where network effects depend on one aggregate variable (demand for each choice), partitioning the dependence into groups creates a wealth of pure price equilibria with profit for both price setters, even if positive network effects are the dominant element of the game. If there is some asymmetry in how groups interact, two groups are sufficient. If network effects are based on undirected and unweighted graphs, at least five groups are required but, without other differentiation, outcomes are symmetric. |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2110.05891&r= |
| By: | Tim Klausmann (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz) |
| Abstract: | Relative performance feedback often increases effort and performance on average. However, in the context of education, learners with low ability often do not profit from relative performance feedback. Less is known on how learners react to feedback when changing the feedback group composition. In a randomized field experiment we allocated 7352 learners into (i) homogeneous ability feedbackgroups, (ii) heterogeneous ability feedbackgroups, and (iii) a control group. All learners were observed in an online learning enviroment with anonymity between them. We find that on average relative performance feedback increases learning effort by 0.11 standard deviations. However, we do not observe any difference between learners in homogeneous and heterogeneous feedback groups on average. Further, we analyze the differential treatment effect for different ability levels between homogeneous and heterogenous feedback groups. |
| Keywords: | Feedback, Relative Performance, Heterogeneity, Education, Online Education, Peer Quality, Tracking, Learning Behavior, Gamification |
| JEL: | D31 F12 F16 H24 |
| Date: | 2021–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jgu:wpaper:2114&r= |
| By: | Loreth, Larry F. |
| Keywords: | Public Economics |
| Date: | 2021–10–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ctrf31:314714&r= |
| By: | Khanam, Bilkis R. |
| Keywords: | Public Economics |
| Date: | 2021–10–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ctrf31:314713&r= |
| By: | Sallin, Aurelién |
| Abstract: | While the number of students with identified special needs is increasing in developed countries, there is little evidence on academic outcomes and labor market integration returns to special education. I present results from the first ever study to examine short- and longterm returns to special education programs using recent methods in causal machine learning and computational text analysis. I find that special education programs in inclusive settings have positive returns on academic performance in math and language as well as on employment and wages. Moreover, I uncover a positive effect of inclusive special education programs in comparison to segregated programs. However, I find that segregation has benefits for some students: students with emotional or behavioral problems, and nonnative students. Finally, using shallow decision trees, I deliver optimal placement rules that increase overall returns for students with special needs and lower special education costs. These placement rules would reallocate most students with special needs from segregation to inclusion, which reinforces the conclusion that inclusion is beneficial to students with special needs. |
| Keywords: | returns to education, special education, inclusion, segregation, causal machine learning, computational text analysis |
| JEL: | H52 I21 I26 J14 C31 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usg:econwp:2021:09&r= |
| By: | Zhou, Xiaohe; Ye, Chunhui |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, International Development, Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:313956&r= |
| By: | Lisa D. Cook; Janet Gerson; Jennifer Kuan |
| Abstract: | Recent research shows the negative impact of discrimination not only on the targets of discrimination but also on the economy as a whole. Racial and gender inequality can limit the entire economy's productive capacity and innovation outcomes. Using new data from NSF's Survey of Earned Doctorates on the scientific workforce from 1980 to 2019, as well as patenting and commercialization data, we examine racial and gender disparities at each stage of the innovation process—education and training, the practice of invention, and commercialization. While improving along certain dimensions over time, we find persistent racial and gender disparities consistent with the current literature. To reverse the negative effects on productive capacity and long-run economic growth, we also discuss the literature on mitigating discriminatory practices at each juncture, which could have significant distributional effects as access to good jobs expands. |
| JEL: | O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29354&r= |
| By: | Česnuitytė, Vida; Dromantienė, Leta; Bernotas, Dainius; Banytė, Jūratė; Vitkauskaitė, Elena; Vaičiukynaitė, Eglė |
| Abstract: | The sharing economy is a new and underdeveloped phenomenon in Lithuania, starting from the definition of the concept in a state’s legal framework and scarce statistics. The aim of the paper is to describe the trends of the digitally supported sharing economy in Lithuania. Available national and international information and data were analysed. It was shown that the most popular services in Lithuania there is the transport sector, in the second place there is the accommodation sector, in the third—food-related services. The reasons why Lithuanians offer services via collaborative platforms mostly concern additional sources of income and flexible working hours. Over two-thirds of the habitants express their positive attitudes towards sharing economy and collaborative platforms, and over ninety per cent would recommend other services offered via collaborative platforms. Though 97% of the Lithuanians have never offered the services via sharing economy and collaborative platforms, and it is mostly because of no item or interest, and two-fifths do not know at all those collaborative platforms are. The development of the sharing economy in Lithuania as far is gaining speed, and in the future, the principles of these phenomena are going to be used in an even broader scope of the sectors. |
| Keywords: | Accommodation Sharing; B2C Sharing; Car-Sharing; Collaborative Economy; Lithuania; P2P Sharing Platform; Sharing Economy; Sharing of Things |
| JEL: | L86 L91 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110237&r= |
| By: | Conrad Miller (University of California-Berkeley and NBER); Ian Schmutte (University of Georgia) |
| Abstract: | We study how referral hiring contributes to racial inequality in firm-level labor demand over the firm’s life cycle using data from Brazil. We consider a search model where referral networks are segregated, firms are more informed about the match quality of referred candidates, and some referrals are made by nonreferred employees. Consistent with the model, we find that firms are more likely to hire candidates and less likely to dismiss employees of the same race as the founder, but these differences diminish as firms’ cumulative hires increase. Referral hiring helps to explain racial differences in dismissals, seniority, and employer size. |
| Keywords: | referral hiring, search model, match quality, racial differences, Brazil |
| JEL: | D83 J15 J23 J42 J63 L25 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upj:weupjo:21-352&r= |
| By: | Chika O. Okafor |
| Abstract: | I investigate how political incentives affect the behavior of district attorneys (DAs). I develop a theoretical model that predicts DAs will increase sentencing intensity in an election period compared to the period prior. To empirically test this prediction, I compile one of the most comprehensive datasets to date on the political careers of all district attorneys in office during the steepest rise in incarceration in U.S. history (roughly 1986-2006). Using quasi-experimental methods, I find causal evidence that being in a DA election year increases total admissions per capita and total months sentenced per capita. I estimate that the election year effects on admissions are akin to moving 0.85 standard deviations along the distribution of DA behavior within state (e.g., going from the 50th to 80th percentile in sentencing intensity). I find evidence that election effects are larger (1) when DA elections are contested, (2) in Republican counties, and (3) in the southern United States--all these factors are consistent with the perspective that election effects arise from political incentives influencing DAs. Further, I find that district attorney election effects decline over the period 1986-2006, in tandem with U.S. public opinion softening regarding criminal punishment. These findings suggest DA behavior may respond to voter preferences--in particular to public sentiment regarding the harshness of the court system. |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2110.09169&r= |
| By: | Saha, Bijeta Bijen |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:314084&r= |
| By: | Lukas Kiessling |
| Abstract: | This paper studies parental beliefs about the returns to two factors affecting the development and long-term outcomes of children: (i) parenting styles defined by warmth and control parents employ in raising children, and (ii) neighborhood quality. Based on a representative sample of 2,119 parents in the United States, I show that parents perceive large returns to the warmth dimension of parenting as well as neighborhood quality, and document that they perceive parenting to compensate for the lack of a good environment. I introduce a measurement error correction to show that perceived returns relate to parents’ actual parenting styles, but document that beliefs are unlikely to explain socioeconomic differences in parenting behavior and families’ neighborhood choices. |
| Keywords: | Subjective expectations, Parenting styles, Neighborhoods, Human capital |
| JEL: | I24 I26 J13 J24 D19 R23 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2021_270v1&r= |
| By: | Sabrina T. Howell; Theresa Kuchler; David Snitkof; Johannes Stroebel; Jun Wong |
| Abstract: | We explore the sources of racial disparities in small business lending by studying the $806 billion Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), which was designed to support small business jobs during the COVID-19 pandemic. PPP loans were administered by private lenders but federally guaranteed, largely eliminating unobservable credit risk as a factor in explaining differential lending by race. We document that even after controlling for a firm’s zip code, industry, loan size, PPP approval date, and other characteristics, Black-owned businesses were 12.1 percentage points (70% of the mean) more likely to obtain their PPP loan from a fintech lender than a traditional bank. Among conventional lenders, smaller banks were much less likely to lend to Black-owned firms, while the Top-4 banks exhibited little to no disparity after including controls. We use novel data to show that the disparity is not primarily explained by differences in pre-existing bank or credit relationships, firm financial positions, fintech affinity, or borrower application behavior. In contrast, we document that Black-owned businesses’ higher rate of borrowing from fintechs compared to smaller banks is particularly large in places with high racial animus, pointing to a potential role for discrimination in explaining some of the racial disparities in small business lending. We find evidence that when small banks automate their lending processes, and thus reduce human involvement in the loan origination process, their rate of PPP lending to Black-owned businesses increases, with larger effects in places with more racial animus. |
| JEL: | G21 G23 G28 G41 J15 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9345&r= |
| By: | Maria Caridad Araujo (Inter-American Development Bank - Inter-American Development Bank); Karen Macours (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | In 1997, the Mexican government designed the conditional cash transfer program Progresa, which became the worldwide model of a new approach to social programs, simultaneously targeting human capital accumulation and poverty reduction. A large literature has documented the short and medium-term impacts of the Mexican program and its successors in other countries. Using Progresa's experimental evaluation design originally rolled out in 1997-2000, and a tracking survey conducted 20 years later, this paper studies the differential long-term impacts of exposure to Progresa. We focus on two cohorts of children: i) those that during the period of differential exposure were in-utero or in the first years of life, and ii) those who during the period of differential exposure were transitioning from primary to secondary school. Results for the early childhood cohort, 18–20- year-old at endline, shows that differential exposure to Progresa during the early years led to positive impacts on educational attainment and labor income expectations. This constitutes unique long-term evidence on the returns of an at-scale intervention on investments in human capital during the first 1000 days of life. Results for the school cohort - in their early 30s at endline - show that the short-term impacts of differential exposure to Progresa on schooling were sustained in the long-run and manifested themselves in larger labor incomes, more geographical mobility including through international migration, and later family formation. |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-03364972&r= |