nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2021‒10‒11
68 papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Residential segregation, daytime segregation and spatial frictions : an analysis from mobile phone data By L. GALIANA; B. SAKAROVITCH; F. SÉMÉCURBE; Z. SMOREDA
  2. Racial Disparities in Housing Returns By Amir Kermani; Francis Wong
  3. What Causes House Prices to Fluctuate? Evidence from South Korea By Jinwoong Lee; Jihee Ann; Cheolbeom Park
  4. School value-added and long-term student outcomes By Kirkebøen, Lars
  5. Congestion pricing, air pollution, and individual-level behavioral responses By Isaksen, Elisabeth T.; Johansen, Bjørn G.
  6. Impact of Temporary School Closure Due to COVID-19 on the Academic Achievement of Elementary School Students By Shinsuke Asakawa; Fumio Ohtake
  7. Credit Supply Driven Boom-Bust Cycles By Yavuz Arslan; Bulent Guler; Burhan Kuruscu
  8. Evictions in Toronto: Governance Challenges and the Need for Intergovernmental Cooperation By Julie Mah
  9. Local institutions and pandemics: City autonomy and the Black Death By Han Wang; Andres Rodriguez-Pose;
  10. Uber versus Trains? Worldwide Evidence from Transit Expansions By Marco Gonzalez-Navarro; Jonathan D. Hall; Harrison Wheeler; Rik Williams
  11. Household Debt and the Effects of Fiscal Policy By Sami Alpanda; Hyunji Song; Sarah Zubairy
  12. The Canadian Pacific -- Kansas City Southern Railway Merger and the Optimal Railroad Network By Yanyou Chen
  13. The Causal Effects of Place on Health and Longevity By Tatyana Deryugina; David Molitor
  14. The Impact of Extractive Industries on Regional Diversification: Evidence from Vietnam By Moritz Breul; Thi Xuan Thu Nguyen;
  15. More Schools, Less Trouble? Competition and Schools’ Work Environment, Sweden 1999–2011 By Sebhatu, Abiel; Wennberg, Karl; Lakomaa, Erik; Brandén, Maria
  16. Impatience and crime. Evidence from the NLSY97 By Basiglio Stefania; Foresta Alessandra; Turati Gilberto
  17. Market Size and Spatial Growth - Evidence from Germany’s Post-War Population Expulsions By Michael Peters
  18. The potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on learning By Monroy-Gómez-Franco, Luis; Vélez-Grajales, Roberto; Lopez-Calva, Luis Felipe
  19. Recourse as Shadow Equity: Evidence from Commercial Real Estate Loans By David P. Glancy; Robert J. Kurtzman; Lara Loewenstein; Joseph B. Nichols
  20. Public Charging Infrastructure and Electric Vehicles in Norway By Schulz, Felix; Rode, Johannes
  21. Is Marriage for White People? Incarceration, Unemployment, and the Racial Marriage Divide By Elisabeth M. Caucutt; Nezih Guner; Christopher Rauh
  22. The urban-rural height gap: Evidence from late nineteenth-century Catalonia By Ramon Ramon-Muñoz; Josep-Maria Ramon-Muñoz
  23. Charitable Giving Responses to Education Budgets By Jonathan Meer; Hedieh Tajali
  24. Using Multidisciplinary Partnerships to Advance Juvenile Justice Reform: Experiences in 10 Communities By Todd Honeycutt; Leah Sakala; Janine Zweig; Megan Hague Angus; Sino Esthappan
  25. Is high-speed rail green? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China By Liang Nie; ZhongXiang Zhang
  26. Earnings Inequality and Immobility for Hispanics and Asians: An Examination of Variation Across Subgroups By Randall Akee; Sonya R. Porter; Emilia Simeonova
  27. Identifying Students At Risk Using Prior Performance Versus a Machine Learning Algorithm By Lindsay Cattell; Julie Bruch
  28. How Large Are the American Rescue Plan Fund Distributions to State and Local Governments? By Grant Rosenberger; Stephan Whitaker
  29. Ethnofederalism and Ethnic Voting By Richard Bluhm; Roland Hodler; Paul Schaudt
  30. Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Youth Unemployment Rates, by Race and Ethnicity By Hande Inanc; Megan Caruso
  31. Efficiency, Fairness, and Stability in Non-Commercial Peer-to-Peer Ridesharing By Hoon Oh; Yanhan Tang; Zong Zhang; Alexandre Jacquillat; Fei Fang
  32. Beschränkungen der Wohnortwahl für anerkannte Geflüchtete: Wohnsitzauflagen reduzieren die Chancen auf Arbeitsmarktintegration (Restrictions on the choice of residence for recognized refugees: Residence obligations reduce the chances of labor market integration) By Brücker, Herbert; Hauptmann, Andreas; Jaschke, Philipp
  33. Local Economic Growth and Infant Mortality By Andreas Kammerlander; Günther G. Schulze
  34. Geography of Science: Competitiveness and Inequality By Aurelio Patelli; Lorenzo Napolitano; Giulio Cimini; Andrea Gabrielli
  35. Decentralization and economic growth: Evidence across states of some relevant macroeconomic variables By Henry Aray; Luis Pedagua
  36. Consumer motives for buying regional products: The REGIOSCALE By Nadine Waehning; Raffaele Filieri
  37. Circles of Trust: Rival Information in Social Networks By Petra Persson ⓡ; Nikita Roketskiy ⓡ; Samuel Lee
  38. Race and Environmental Worries By Ranie Lin; Lala Ma; Toan Phan
  39. The Local Fiscal Multiplier of Intergovernmental Grants: Evidence from Federal Medicaid Assistance to States By Seth Giertz; Anil Kumar
  40. Can there be too much information? Heterogeneous responses to information on benefits from language proficiency By Fabian Koenings
  41. The struggle of small firms to retain high-skill workers: Job duration and importance of knowledge intensity By Hugo Castro-Silva; Francisco Lima
  42. Regional Income Dynamics in Bangladesh: The Road to a Balanced Development is in the Middle By Syed Basher; Francesca Di Iorio; Stefano Fachin
  43. The Impacts of Mobility on Covid-19 Dynamics: Using Soft and Hard Data By Leonardo Martins; Marcelo C. Medeiros
  44. Healthy Marriage and Relationship Education for High School Students: By Julia Alamillo; Brian Goesling
  45. Intensified Online Opinion Clashes with Salient Group Identity By Xintong Han; Mantian Mandy Hu
  46. Do Refugees with Better Mental Health Better Integrate? Evidence from the Building a New Life in Australia Longitudinal Survey By Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Trinh, Trong-Anh; Verme, Paolo
  47. Reward Crowdfunding Campaigns: Time-To-Success Analysis By Israel Santos Felipe; Wesley Mendes-da-Silva; Cristiana Cerqueira Leal; Danilo Braun Santos
  48. The COVID-19 Pandemic’s Impact on Public Transportation Ridership and Revenues across New England By Riley Sullivan
  49. Make Your Own Luck: The Wage Gains from Starting College in a Bad Economy By Alena Bicakova; Guido Matias Cortes; Jacopo Mazza
  50. Deepening and Widening Social Identity Analysis in Economics By Davis, John B.
  51. An In-Depth Investigation into the Relationship Between Municipal Solid Waste Generation and Economic Growth in the City of Cape Town By Carmen van der Merwe; Martin de Wit
  52. Who Profits from Windfalls in Oil Tax Revenue? Inequality, Protests, and the Role of Corruption By Michael Alexeev; Nikita Zakharov
  53. The Impact of Place-Based Policy: Evidence from a Multiple Synthetic Control Analysis of the Northeastern Revitalization Program in China By Justin T Callais; Linan Peng
  54. Minimum Wages and Teenage Childbearing: New Estimates Using a Dynamic Difference-in-Differences Approach By Daniel I. Rees; Joseph J. Sabia; Rebecca Margolit
  55. The capitalisation of CAP subsidies into land rents and land values in the EU By BALDONI Edoardo; CIAIAN Pavel
  56. Supporting Disconnected Youth During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Experiences from the Field By Tosin Shenbanjo; Melissa Mack
  57. The Impacts of Weather Shocks on Employment Outcomes: Evidence from South Africa By Harriet Brookes Gray; Vis Taraz; Simon D. Halliday
  58. Einwanderung nach Deutschland: Viele Hochqualifizierte, aber auch viele Ungelernte (Immigration to Germany: Many high-skilled, but also many unskilled) By Seibert, Holger; Wapler, Rüdiger
  59. Import Competition and Firms’ Internal Networks By Jay Hyun; Ziho Park; Vladimir Smirnyagin
  60. The Forest Behind the Tree: Heterogeneity in How US Governor's Party Affects Black Workers By Tchuente, Guy; Kakeu, Johnson; Francois, John Nana
  61. The Heterogeneous Impact of Referrals on Labor Market Outcomes By Benjamin Lester; David A. Rivers; Giorgio Topa
  62. Grenzpendler aus dem Ausland: Immer mehr Beschäftigte in Deutschland mit ausländischem Wohnort (Cross-Border commuters from abroad: More and more employees in Germany have a foreign residency) By Buch, Tanja; Carstensen, Jeanette; Hamann, Silke; Otto, Anne; Seibert, Holger; Sieglen, Georg
  63. Strong Demand, Limited Supply, and Rising Prices: The Economics of Pandemic-Era Housing By Isabel Brizuela; Julianne Dunn
  64. Landmines: the local effects of demining By Prem, M; Purroy, M. E.; Vargas, J. F.
  65. COVID-19 and pro-sociality: How do donors respond to local pandemic severity, increased salience, and media coverage? By Adena, Maja; Harke, Julian
  66. Incidence and Performance of Spinouts and Incumbent New Ventures: Role of Selection and Redeployability within Parent Firms By Natarajan Balasubramanian; Mariko Sakakibara
  67. Pro-environmental Attitudes, Local Environmental Conditions and Recycling Behavior By Luisa Corrado; Andrea Fazio; Alessandra Pelloni
  68. California’s Freeway Service Patrol Program: Management Information System Annual Report Fiscal Year 2019-20 By Mauch, Michael; Skabardonis, Alex

  1. By: L. GALIANA (Insee); B. SAKAROVITCH (Insee); F. SÉMÉCURBE (Insee); Z. SMOREDA (Orange Labs, SENSE)
    Abstract: We bring together mobile phone and geocoded tax data on the three biggest French cities to shed a new light on segregation that accounts for population flows. Mobility being a key factor to reduce spatial segregation, we build a gravity model on an unprecedent scale to estimate the heterogeneity in travel costs. Residential segregation represents the acme of segregation. Low-income people spread more than high-income people during the day. Distance plays a key role to limit population flows. Low-income people live in neighbourhoods where the spatial frictions are strongest.
    Keywords: Segregation, big data, phone data, gravity model, urban economics
    JEL: R23 R41 C55
    Date: 2020
  2. By: Amir Kermani; Francis Wong
    Abstract: We document the existence of a racial gap in realized housing returns that is an order of magnitude larger than disparities arising from housing costs alone, and is driven almost entirely by differences in distressed home sales (i.e. foreclosures and short sales). Black and Hispanic homeowners are both more likely to experience a distressed sale and to live in neighborhoods where distressed sales erase more house value. Importantly, absent financial distress, houses owned by minorities do not appreciate at slower rates than houses owned by non-minorities. Racial differences in income stability and liquid wealth explain a large share of the differences in distress. We use quasi-experimental variation in loan modifications to show that policies that restructure mortgages for distressed minorities can increase housing returns and reduce the racial wealth gap.
    JEL: G5 G51 J15
    Date: 2021–09
  3. By: Jinwoong Lee (: Department of Economics, Korea University, 145 Anamro, Seongbukgu, Seoul, Korea 02841); Jihee Ann (Associate Research Fellow, Research Division, Korea Real Estate Research Institute, 52 Bangbaero, Seochogu, Seoul, Korea 06705); Cheolbeom Park (Department of Economics, Korea University, 145 Anamro, Seongbukgu, Seoul, Korea 02841)
    Abstract: In this study, we build a structural vector autoregressive model of the housing market with supply and demand shocks to determine the main causes of house price movements in South Korea. We include housing permits, basic housing demand which is constructed in a similar manner to Mankiw and Weil (1989) and the growth rates of real housing prices in the model, and decompose changes in house prices into three structural components: housing supply shocks, shocks to basic housing demand, and shocks to housing-market-specific demand. We find that the main driver of the movements in house prices is housing-marketspecific demand shocks, and these are associated with beliefs regarding future house prices and the real estate market, as measured by the Consumer Sentiment Indices for the housing market, rather than credit conditions or financial variables such as interest rates or stock returns.
    Keywords: House prices, Shocks to housing-market-specific demand, Beliefs, Credit conditions, Interest rate
    JEL: R30 R21 R31 E30 G10
  4. By: Kirkebøen, Lars (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: This paper studies school quality in the context of Norwegian compulsory schooling. I demonstrate that even when lagged achievement is not observed, it is possible to construct informative value-added (VA) indicators of persistent school quality by adjusting exam scores for students’ background characteristics. These VA indicators show little bias forecasting average exam performance out of sample, and are also predicative of long-term student outcomes, including earnings. Three quasi-experiments using variation from student mobility and changes in neighborhood school assignments indicate that the differences captured by the VA indicators do indeed reflect differences in school quality, rather than unobserved student characteristics. The finding help connect learning outcomes with later labor market outcomes, e.g. for cost-benefit analysis of interventions in schools.
    Keywords: school quality; value-added; VAM; earnings
    JEL: J24
    Date: 2021–09–20
  5. By: Isaksen, Elisabeth T. (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research); Johansen, Bjørn G. (The Institute of Transport Economics)
    Abstract: This paper shows that differentiating driving costs by time of day and vehicle type help improve urban air quality, lower driving, and induce adoption of electric vehicles. By taking advantage of a congestion charge that imposed spatial and temporal variation in the cost of driving a conventional vehicle, we find that economic incentives lower traffic and concentrations of NO2. Exploiting a novel dataset on car ownership, we find that households exposed to congestion charging on their way to work were more likely to adopt an electric vehicle. Heterogeneity analyses show strong socioeconomic gradients in the transition towards low-emission cars.
    Keywords: air pollution; electric vehicles; transportation policies; congestion charging
    JEL: C33 H23 Q53 Q55 Q58 R41 R48
    Date: 2021–05–04
  6. By: Shinsuke Asakawa (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University); Fumio Ohtake (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University,Center for Infectious Disease Education and Research (CiDER), Osaka University)
    Abstract: This study examines the effects of COVID-19 related temporary school closures on the academic performance of fifth- and sixth-grade primary school students in Japan. Difference-in-differences and event studies were conducted using "Manabi Nara" data, a math achievement test administered to fourth-sixth graders at each term-end in Nara City. Children who experienced temporary school closure made the treatment group while inexperienced one-year older children were the control group. The results showed lowered math scores in the short term, but scores significantly increased six months after school closure. Further, the lower the students' academic achievement was, the greater was their improvement in their math scores. We found that increased motivation and attitude shifts toward math during this period contributed to improved scores. Finally, students with disadvantaged living conditions around school vacations saw their math scores and motivation and attitude toward math fall, particularly in the bottom 25% of their fourth-grade academic performance.
    Keywords: COVID-19, School Closure, Learning Loss, Elementary School Students, Math Scores, DID and Event Study, Living conditions, Learning Disparity
    JEL: I21 I24 I28
    Date: 2021–09
  7. By: Yavuz Arslan (University of Liverpool Management School); Bulent Guler (Indiana University, Department of Economics); Burhan Kuruscu (University of Toronto, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: Can shifts in the credit supply generate a boom-bust cycle similar to the one observed in the US around 2008? To answer this question, we develop a general equilibrium model that combines a rich heterogeneous agent overlapping-generations structure of households who make housing tenure decisions and borrow through long-term mortgages, firms that finance their working capital through short-term loans from banks, and banks whose ability to intermediate funds depends on their capital. Using a calibrated version of this framework, we find that shocks to banks’ leverage can generate sizable boom-bust cycles in the housing market, the banking sector, and the rest of the macroeconomy, which provides strong support for the credit supply channel. The deterioration of bank balance sheets during the bust, the existence of highly leveraged households, and the general equilibrium feedback from the credit supply to household labor income significantly amplify the bust. Moreover, mortgage credit growth across the income distribution is consistent with recent findings that were otherwise argued to be against the credit supply channel. A comparison of the model outcomes across credit supply, house price expectation, and productivity shocks suggests that housing busts accompanied by severe banking crises are more likely to be generated by credit supply shocks.
    Keywords: Credit Supply, House Prices, Financial Crises, Household and Bank Balance Sheets, Leverage, Foreclosures, Mortgage Valuations, Consumption, and Output
    Date: 2021–09
  8. By: Julie Mah (The University of Toronto)
    Abstract: The COVID-19 crisis has highlighted the importance of increased cooperation among different levels of government and of governance structures that enhance intergovernmental coordination so that residents’ needs are effectively addressed. This paper uses residential evictions in Toronto as an example to show why municipalities need to have a seat at the provincial table. The paper explains how provincial policy helps shape the rental housing landscape. Municipalities, in turn, feel the impacts of tenancy laws and provincial policy decisions on evictions and bear the costs in the form of added demand for social services. In particular, although the residential eviction process is controlled by the Province, the City of Toronto experiences the effect of this governance arrangement in the form of a growing homeless population, an increased burden on the shelter system, rising housing instability, and disproportionate eviction impacts on low-income and racialized communities that have also been hardest hit by the pandemic. Municipalities can use their jurisdiction over the development approvals and permitting system to address specific local housing challenges and mitigate some of the effects of the evictions problem, but Canadian cities lack the authority to address the underlying structural issues. While municipalities have the power to develop and implement eviction prevention programs, they are relatively powerless to solve systemic drivers of evictions. That power lies at the provincial level. This gap impedes a municipality’s ability to meet eviction prevention goals. Since municipalities deal with the financial and social impacts of provincial policy decisions, they should be meaningfully included and engaged in the decision-making process. Formalizing bilateral provincial-municipal relations to enable regular meetings and collaborative governance would help address this gap.
    Keywords: evictions, Toronto, Ontario, municipalities, intergovernmental cooperation, Vancouver
    Date: 2021–10
  9. By: Han Wang; Andres Rodriguez-Pose;
    Abstract: Local institutions have long been regarded as key drivers of economic development. However, little is known about the role of institutions in preparing places to cope with public health crises and pandemics. This paper sheds light on how the nature of a local institution, city autonomy, influenced variations in the incidence of the Black Death —possibly the worst pandemic ever recorded— across cities in Western Europe between 1347 and 1352. We examine urban autonomy not only because it represented a major political shift in medieval times, but because, more importantly, it also represents a key prototype of modern political institutions. By exploiting data on the spatial variation of Black Death’s mortality rates and duration using OLS and 2SLS methods, we uncover that city autonomy reduced mortality rates by, on average, almost 10 percent. Autonomous cities were in a better position to adopt swift and efficient measures against the pandemic than those governed by remote kings and emperors. This relationship has been confirmed by a series of placebo tests and robustness checks. In contrast, there is no evidence to suggest that city autonomy was a factor in reducing the duration of the pandemic in European cities.
    Keywords: Local institutions, pandemics, city autonomy, Black Death, Europe
    JEL: N43 N93 O17
    Date: 2021–09
  10. By: Marco Gonzalez-Navarro (Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, University of California Berkeley, 216 Giannini Hall, Berkeley, California, 94720, USA); Jonathan D. Hall (Department of Economics and Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, University of Toronto, 150 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario M5S 3G7, Canada); Harrison Wheeler (Department of Economics, University of California Berkeley, 530 Evans Hall #3880, Berkeley, California, 94720, USA); Rik Williams (Uber Technologies, Inc., 1515 3rd St., San Francisco, California 94158, USA)
    Abstract: There is a contentious debate on whether ride-hailing complements or substitutes public transportation. We address this question using novel data and an innovative identification strategy. Our identification strategy relies on exogenous variation in local transit availability caused by rail expansions. Using proprietary trip data from Uber for 35 countries, we use a dynamic difference-in-differences strategy to estimate how transit expansions affect local Uber ridership in 100 m distance bands centered on the new train station. Our estimates compare Uber ridership within a distance band before and after a train station opens relative to the next further out distance band. Total effects are obtained by aggregating relative effects at all further distance bands. We find that a new rail station opening increases Uber ridership within 100 m of the station by 60\%, and that this effect decays to zero for distances beyond 300 m. This sharp test implies Uber and rail transit are complements.
    Keywords: Public transit, ride-hailing
    JEL: R40 O33 L91
    Date: 2021–10
  11. By: Sami Alpanda (University of Central Florida, Department of Economics); Hyunji Song (Texas A&M University, Department of Economics); Sarah Zubairy (Texas A&M University, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper examines how the effects of government spending shocks depend on the balance-sheet position of households. Employing U.S. household survey data, we find that in response to a positive government spending shock, households with mortgage debt have a large, positive consumption response, while renters have a smaller rise in consumption. Homeowners without mortgage debt, in contrast, have an insignificant expenditure response. We consider a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with three types of households: savers who own their housing, borrowers with mortgage debt, and rule-of-thumb consumers who rent housing, and show that it can successfully account for these findings. The model suggests that liquidity constraints and wealth effects, tied to the persistence of public spending, play a crucial role in the propagation of government spending shocks. Our findings provide both empirical and theoretical support for the notion that household mortgage debt position plays an important role in the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy.
    Keywords: Fiscal shocks, Government spending, Household balance sheets, Household debt.
    JEL: E21 E32 E62
    Date: 2021–09–28
  12. By: Yanyou Chen (University of Toronto, Department of Economics, Max Gluskin House, 150 St. George Street, 310, Toronto, ON, Canada, M5S 2E9)
    Abstract: This project evaluates the optimal transport network in North America by first analyzing the proposed $25 billion merger between the Canadian Pacific Railway and the Kansas City Southern Railway. Then this project studies different sequences of mergers and find the optimal path of mergers to form the transport network in North America. Current simulation results suggest that average over all origin-destination markets, the proposed merger between Canadian Pacific Railway and the Kansas City Southern Railway will decrease the average shipment cost by 6.27%. Among different local markets, regions near or utilize the route from Des Moines, IA -- Kansas City, MO -- Joplin, MO will have the largest efficiency gain from the proposed merger.
    Keywords: Merger; Transport Network; Railroad
    JEL: L13 L43 L92
    Date: 2021–09
  13. By: Tatyana Deryugina; David Molitor
    Abstract: Life expectancy varies substantially across local regions within a country, raising conjectures that place of residence affects health. However, population sorting and other confounders make it difficult to disentangle the effects of place on health from other geographic differences in life expectancy. Recent studies have overcome such challenges to demonstrate that place of residence substantially influences health and mortality. Whether policies that encourage people to move to places that are better for their health or that improve areas that are detrimental to health are desirable depends on the mechanisms behind place effects, yet these mechanisms remain poorly understood.
    JEL: H75 I1 R1
    Date: 2021–10
  14. By: Moritz Breul; Thi Xuan Thu Nguyen;
    Abstract: Economic diversification is perceived as imperative to reduce resource-dependent economies’ vulnerability to a broader resource curse. Despite its importance, we know surprisingly little about the relationship between natural resource-dependence and economic diversification. The few insights that exist, remain on a country-level. But, since the importance of natural resource extraction differs across regions in the same country, it would be odd to assume that the effects of extractive industries on the diversification performance would be felt evenly countrywide. Also, extractive regions in the same country can manage to develop new non-extractive industries with varying success. Understanding this relationship on a regional level is important in order to identify conditions under which diversification of extractive regions is likely to materialize. This paper therefore aims to bring the study of the relationship between extractive industries and diversification to a regional level. To this end, we analyze how the regional importance of extractive industries has affected the entrance of non-extractive industries to Vietnamese provinces between 2006 and 2010. Furthermore, the study investigates to what extent region-specific conditions – that is the regional industrial profile and institutions - moderate the effect of the regional presence of extractive industries on regional diversification. Our findings reveal that extractive industries tend to constrain non-extractive industry entries on a regional level. However, the results also show that adequate regional institutions can moderate this negative effect on the regional diversification performance. Thereby the study underlines the need and value of studying the relationship between extractive industries and diversification also on a regional level.
    Keywords: Regional diversification, extractive industries, resource curse, relatedness, regional institutions, Vietnam
    Date: 2021–09
  15. By: Sebhatu, Abiel (Institute for Analytical Sociology (IAS), Linköping University & Center for Education and Leadership Excellence); Wennberg, Karl (Center for Education and Leadership Excellence); Lakomaa, Erik (Institute for Economic and Business History Research (EHFF)); Brandén, Maria (Dep. of Sociology, Stockholm University & Institute for Analytical Sociology (IAS), Linköping University)
    Abstract: We bridge research on work environment and competition among schools using detailed data on complaints and incidents of disorder and violence in all Swedish schools 1999-2011. Findings suggest that competition is associated with lower levels of complaints across educational levels. For lower secondary schools, municipalities with high levels of school competition experience higher levels of violence in schools. To assess the causal effects of competition on work environment, we compare municipalities that have introduced competition with those that have not in a difference–in–difference framework, finding that only school complaints in upper secondary schools decrease after competition is introduced.
    Keywords: School; competition; Work; environment
    JEL: D49 H40 I21 J28
    Date: 2021–09–21
  16. By: Basiglio Stefania (University of Torino and Collegio Carlo Alberto, Italy); Foresta Alessandra (University of York, UK); Turati Gilberto (Department of Economics and Finance (Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza), Catholic University (Rome), Italy)
    Abstract: TWe empirically test the relationship between crime and impatience at the individual level exploiting data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97). Besides providing information on both violent and property crimes, NLSY97 allows to observe different behaviors sharing impatience as a common latent factor. We use factor analysis to extract this common factor as a measure for impatience. Estimates from a Logit model suggest a positive association between impatience and crime. This relationship differs across genders: impatience matters for both violent and property crimes for women, while it affects only violent crimes for men. The result is robust to different specications of the factor analysis and to controls for risk preferences. Our results bring support to policies aimed at influencing individual time preferences as an indirect way to combat crime.
    Keywords: Time preferences, Impatience, Property crime, Violent crime, NLSY97, Factor analysis
    JEL: D99 K42 Z13
    Date: 2021–09
  17. By: Michael Peters
    Abstract: Virtually all theories of economic growth predict a positive relationship between population size and productivity. In this paper I study a particular historical episode to provide direct evidence for the empirical relevance of such scale effects. In the aftermath of the Second World War about 8m ethnic Germans were expelled from their domiciles in Eastern Europe and transferred to West Germany. This inflow increased the German population by almost 20%. Using variation across counties I show that the settlement of refugees had a large and persistent effect on the size of the local population, manufacturing employment and income per capita. I show that these findings are quantitatively consistent with an idea-based model of spatial growth if population mobility is subject to frictions and productivity spillovers occur locally. The model implies that the refugee settlement increased aggregate income per capita by about 12% after 25 years and that the historical settlement rule triggered persistent industrialization of rural areas.
    JEL: O11 O4 R11
    Date: 2021–10
  18. By: Monroy-Gómez-Franco, Luis; Vélez-Grajales, Roberto; Lopez-Calva, Luis Felipe
    Abstract: In this paper, we use a new database for Mexico to model the possible long-run effects of the pandemic on learning. First, based on the framework of Neidhöffer, Lustig, and Tommasi (2021), we estimate the loss of schooling due to the transition from in-person to remote learning using data from the National Survey on Social Mobility (ESRU-EMOVI-2017), census data, and national statistics of COVID-19 incidence. In this estimation, we account for the attenuation capacity of households by considering the parental educational attainment and the economic resources available to the household in the calculation of the short-run cost. Secondly, we estimate the potential long-run consequences of this shock through a calibrated learning profile for five Mexican regions following Kaffenberger and Pritchett (2020). Assuming the distance learning policy adopted by the Mexican government is entirely effective, our results indicate that a learning loss equivalent to the learning during a third of a school year in the short run translates into a learning loss equivalent to an entire school year further up the educational career of students. On the other hand, if the policy was ineffective, the short-run loss increases to an entire school year and becomes a loss of two years of learning in the long run. Our results suggest substantial variation at the regional level, with the most affected region, the South experiencing a loss thrice as large as that of the least affected region, the Centre region.
    Keywords: COVID-19, Mexico, Education, Regional Analysis
    JEL: I24 I25 J62 O15
    Date: 2021–10
  19. By: David P. Glancy; Robert J. Kurtzman; Lara Loewenstein; Joseph B. Nichols
    Abstract: We study the role that recourse plays the in commercial real estate loan contracts in the portfolios of the largest US banks. We find that recourse is valued by lenders and is treated as a substitute for conventional equity. At origination, recourse loans receive loan rate spreads that are at least 20 basis points lower and loan-to-value ratios that are at least 3 percentage points higher. Dynamically, recourse affects loan modification negotiations by providing additional bargaining power to the lender. Loans with recourse were half as likely to receive accommodation during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the modifications that did occur entailed a relatively smaller reduction in payments.
    Keywords: commercial real estate; recourse; LTV
    JEL: G21 G22 G23 R33
    Date: 2021–09–27
  20. By: Schulz, Felix; Rode, Johannes
    Abstract: We study whether public charging infrastructure drives battery electric vehicle adoption. Our analysis is based on granular, annual information on the location of public charging infrastructure and the battery electric vehicle ownership rate across 356 Norwegian LAU-2 municipalities between 2009 and 2019. We focus on areas in which the first public charging infrastructure was installed in this time period. In these mostly rural areas, the establishment of a first public charging station initiated adoption. We find, on average, an increase of the local electric vehicle ownership rate by 1.5 percentage points or 200% over 5 years. Our results are robust to anticipatory effects. They also remain unaffected from different treatment thresholds: the median number of public chargers in a municipality between 2009 and 2019 or the median density of public charging points per 1,000 inhabitants in the same time frame. While we cannot fully rule out reverse effects, we identify public charging infrastructure to serve as a stimulus to the diffusion of battery electric vehicles.
    Date: 2021
  21. By: Elisabeth M. Caucutt (University of Western Ontario); Nezih Guner (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros); Christopher Rauh (University of Cambridge)
    Abstract: The difference in marriage rates between black and white Americans is striking. Wilson (1987) suggests that a skewed sex ratio and higher rates of incarceration and unemployment are responsible for lower marriage rates among the black population. In this paper, we take a dynamic look at the Wilson Hypothesis. Incarceration rates and labor market prospects of black men make them riskier spouses than white men. We develop an equilibrium search model of marriage, divorce, and labor supply in which transitions between employment, unemployment, and prison differ by race, education, and gender. The model also allows for racial differences in how individuals value marriage and divorce. We estimate the model and investigate how much of the racial divide in marriage is due to the Wilson Hypothesis and how much is due to differences in preferences for marriage. We find that the Wilson Hypothesis accounts for more than three quarters of the model´s racial-marriage gap. This suggests policies that improve employment opportunities and/or reduce incarceration for black men could shrink the racial-marriage gap.
    Keywords: Marriage, race, incarceration, inequality, unemployment.
    JEL: J12 J J64
    Date: 2021–07
  22. By: Ramon Ramon-Muñoz; Josep-Maria Ramon-Muñoz
    Abstract: This paper aims to establish whether there was a gap in biological living standards between rural and urban areas in late nineteenth-century Catalonia, and if so, to determine its extent. The study makes use of a large new dataset based on military records for the cohort of males born in the year 1890 and enlisted in the year 1911. By combining individual heights with information at municipal level, we conclude that the 1890 cohort of conscripts living in rural areas were shorter than those that resided in towns and cities with populations of more than 20,000 people. We also hypothesize about the reasons why urban dwellers in late nineteenth-century Catalonia were taller than their rural counterparts.
    Keywords: biological living standards, well-being, urban penalty, urban premium
    JEL: N33 N93 I14 I31
    Date: 2021–09
  23. By: Jonathan Meer; Hedieh Tajali
    Abstract: Do changes in government spending affect voluntary contributions to those recipients? We examine how changes in K-12 education budgets impact donations to teachers using data from, an online crowdfunding platform for public school teachers to raise money for their classrooms. Using a district-year panel and instruments to address the endogeneity of budgets, we find evidence for crowd-out of private giving, though the magnitudes are fairly small in this setting and do not offset a large proportion of a budget change. These results are driven by entirely teachers' posting of requests, illustrating the importance of considering the demand side of the charitable giving market.
    JEL: D64 H41 H42 I22
    Date: 2021–10
  24. By: Todd Honeycutt; Leah Sakala; Janine Zweig; Megan Hague Angus; Sino Esthappan
    Abstract: This article presents findings about the role that partnerships played across 10 communities participating in the deep-end initiative, which supported local jurisdictions to develop and implement practices, policies, and programs that prevent youth involved in the juvenile justice system from being sent to out-of-home placements.
  25. By: Liang Nie (Ma Yinchu School of Economics, China Academy of Energy); ZhongXiang Zhang (Ma Yinchu School of Economics, China Academy of Energy)
    Abstract: Existing studies have investigated the environmental dividends of substituting high-speed rail for other energy-intensive vehicles from an engineering standpoint, but they have yet to explore the economic effects of high-speed rail and the associated carbon emission reduction benefits. To fill the research gap, we use panel data from 285 Chinese cities between 2004 and 2014, and employ a difference-in-difference model to empirically examine the impact of high-speed rail opening on CO2 emissions. Our results show that the opening of high-speed rail reduces local carbon emissions significantly. This finding is robust and is unaffected by outliers, control group selection, time trends, geography and expectation factors, or endogeneity. The mechanism test reveals that the structure, innovation, and FDI effects are three intermediate influence channels. Further research finds that the emission reduction benefit rises as the intensity of high-speed rail opening climbs the ladder, and high-speed rail service has a spillover effect within an 80-kilometer radius. Moreover, the carbon benefit of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail line far surpasses its carbon footprint, indicating that the line is green. Based on these findings, we recommend that China should support the expansion of high-speed rail in order to reduce carbon emissions in a scientific and responsible manner.
    Keywords: High-speed rail, CO2 emissions, Impact mechanism, Difference-in-difference, China
    JEL: Q54 Q56 O13 R11 P28
    Date: 2021–10
  26. By: Randall Akee; Sonya R. Porter; Emilia Simeonova
    Abstract: Our analysis provides the rst disaggregated examination of earnings inequality and immobility within the Hispanic ethnic group and the Asian race group in the U.S. over the period of 2005-2015. Our analysis differentiates between long-term immigrant and native-born Hispanics and Asians relative to recent immigrants to the U.S. (post 2005) and new labor market entrants. Our results show that for the Asian and Hispanic population aged 18-45, earnings inequality is constant or slightly decreasing for the long-term immigrant and native-born populations. However, including new labor market entrants and recent immigrants to the U.S. contributes significantly to the earnings inequality for these groups at both the aggregate and disaggregated race or ethnic group levels. These findings have important implications for the measurement of inequality for racial and ethnic groups that have higher proportions of new immigrants and new labor market entrants in the U.S.
    Keywords: Earnings immobility, earnings inequality, race, ethnicity, data disaggregation
    JEL: J1 J61
    Date: 2021–09
  27. By: Lindsay Cattell; Julie Bruch
    Abstract: This report provides information for administrators in local education agencies who are considering early warning systems to identify at-risk students.
    Keywords: Schools, At-risk Students, Machine Learning, Early Warning System
  28. By: Grant Rosenberger; Stephan Whitaker
    Abstract: In March of this year, the American Rescue Plan (ARP) authorized the US Department of the Treasury to distribute $350 billion to state and local governments through the legislation’s Coronavirus State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds (SLFRF) to help speed the nation’s economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, candidates and advocates have stepped forward to say what community challenges they will solve with the funds. When we hear that a county is receiving $500 million and a state is receiving $5 billion, both figures sound very large, but what we don’t know is how much change those allocations can create. To ground this conversation, we are providing a list of all of the planned allocations scaled by the receiving jurisdiction’s annual tax revenue. Most of us are familiar with the taxes we pay to state and local governments each year and the programs that those taxes are able to support. Scaling by our state or local government’s annual tax revenue enables us to consider whether our SLFRF allocation could be transformational or merely helpful.
    Keywords: COVID-19; State and Local Governments; American Rescue Plan
    Date: 2021–09–30
  29. By: Richard Bluhm; Roland Hodler; Paul Schaudt
    Abstract: We investigate how changes in the administrative-territorial structure affect ethnic voting. We present an event study design that exploits the 2010 constitutional reform in Kenya, which substantially increased the number of primary administrative regions. We find (i) strong evidence for a reduction in ethnic voting when administrative regions become less ethnically diverse and (ii) weak evidence for such a reduction when ethnic groups become less fragmented across regions. These results suggest that ‘ethnofederal’ reforms (leading to administrative borders that more closely follow ethnic boundaries) can mitigate ethnic politics in diverse countries.
    Keywords: ethnofederalism, decentralization, territorial structure, ethnic divisions, ethnic voting, ethnic politics, Kenya
    JEL: D02 D72 H77 J15 O55
    Date: 2021
  30. By: Hande Inanc; Megan Caruso
    Abstract: As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, a comparison of data from April–August 2021 and data from the same period a year earlier show that youth unemployment rates continue to decrease from the peak experienced in April 2020. However, the speed of economic recovery varies across youth from different racial and ethnic groups.
    Keywords: youth, unemployment
  31. By: Hoon Oh; Yanhan Tang; Zong Zhang; Alexandre Jacquillat; Fei Fang
    Abstract: Unlike commercial ridesharing, non-commercial peer-to-peer (P2P) ridesharing has been subject to limited research -- although it can promote viable solutions in non-urban communities. This paper focuses on the core problem in P2P ridesharing: the matching of riders and drivers. We elevate users' preferences as a first-order concern and introduce novel notions of fairness and stability in P2P ridesharing. We propose algorithms for efficient matching while considering user-centric factors, including users' preferred departure time, fairness, and stability. Results suggest that fair and stable solutions can be obtained in reasonable computational times and can improve baseline outcomes based on system-wide efficiency exclusively.
    Date: 2021–10
  32. By: Brücker, Herbert (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Hauptmann, Andreas (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Jaschke, Philipp (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)
    Abstract: "The effects of residence obligations are controversial: Some expect better chances of integration into the labor market and society from an even distribution of refugees and a reduction in spatial concentration. Others suspect that information and search costs will increase and in particular people who have been distributed to structurally weak regions will have poorer integration opportunities. In the following, based on the IAB-BAMF-SOEP survey of refugees, we examine how regional residence obligations affect the employment of those affected, the acquisition of German language skills and accommodation in private apartments. Our estimation results are based on a comparison of refugees with recognized protection status who are either subject to regional residence obligations or not. They show that refugees with regional residence obligations are less likely to be in employment. This is true even when individual and regional differences are taken into account. The probability of living in private accommodation is also lower than for refugees without regional residence obligations. In contrast, the estimates do not produce any clear findings with regard to participation in integration courses and the acquisition of German language skills." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    Keywords: Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Auswirkungen ; berufliche Integration ; Geflüchtete ; Mobilitätsbarriere ; regionale Mobilität ; regionale Verteilung ; Spracherwerb ; IAB-BAMF-SOEP-Befragung von Geflüchteten ; Arbeitsmarktchancen ; Verteilungspolitik ; Wohnort ; Wohnsituation ; 2013-2018
    Date: 2020–01–21
  33. By: Andreas Kammerlander; Günther G. Schulze
    Abstract: We show, for the first time, a causal effect of local economic growth on infant mortality. We use geo-referenced data for non-migrating mothers from 46 developing countries and 128 DHS survey rounds and combine it with nighttime luminosity data at a granular level. Using mother fixed effects we show that an increase in local economic activity significantly reduces the probability that the same mother loses a further child before its first birthday.
    Keywords: local economic growth, child mortality, nighttime lights
    JEL: I15 O18
    Date: 2021
  34. By: Aurelio Patelli; Lorenzo Napolitano; Giulio Cimini; Andrea Gabrielli
    Abstract: Using ideas and tools of complexity science we design a holistic measure of \textit{Scientific Fitness}, encompassing the scientific knowledge, capabilities and competitiveness of a research system. We characterize the temporal dynamics of Scientific Fitness and R\&D expenditures at the geographical scale of nations, highlighting patterns of similar research systems, and showing how developing nations (China in particular) are quickly catching up the developed ones. Down-scaling the aggregation level of the analysis, we find that even developed nations show a considerable level of inequality in the Scientific Fitness of their internal regions. Further, we assess comparatively how the competitiveness of each geographic region is distributed over the spectrum of research sectors. Overall, the Scientific Fitness represents the first high quality estimation of the scientific strength of nations and regions, opening new policy-making applications for better allocating resources, filling inequality gaps and ultimately promoting innovation.
    Date: 2021–10
  35. By: Henry Aray (Department of Economic Theory and Economic History, University of Granada.); Luis Pedagua (University of Leon)
    Abstract: The objective of this paper is to test the relationship between de- centralization and economic growth across states. A novel methodol- ogy is applied that allows obtaining thresholds in certain variables to classify the regions into regimes (high or low). Data for the regions of Spain over the period 1986-2010 are used. In general, the results point to a positive relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth in regions with low public infrastructure stock per efficient worker, high human capital per worker and low total factor produc- tivity (TFP). In addition, in regions with low public infrastructure stock per efficient worker and high human capital, a negative relation- ship between administrative decentralization and economic growth is found.
    Keywords: TFP; Spain; Panel Data.
    Date: 2021–09–28
  36. By: Nadine Waehning (University of York [York, UK]); Raffaele Filieri (Audencia Recherche - Audencia Business School)
    Date: 2021
  37. By: Petra Persson ⓡ; Nikita Roketskiy ⓡ; Samuel Lee
    Abstract: We analyze the diffusion of rival information in a social network. In our model, rational agents can share information sequentially, unconstrained by an exogenous protocol or timing. We show how to compute the set of eventually informed agents for any network, and show that it is essentially unique under altruistic preferences. The relationship between network structure and information diffusion is complex because the former shapes both the charity and confidentiality of potential senders and receivers.
    JEL: D83 D85
    Date: 2021–10
  38. By: Ranie Lin; Lala Ma; Toan Phan
    Keywords: Residential sorting; Pollution; Race
    Date: 2021–09–08
  39. By: Seth Giertz; Anil Kumar
    Abstract: Advocates of Medicaid expansion argue that federal Medicaid assistance to states fosters economic activity, generating positive local multiplier effects. Furthermore, during economic downturns, Congress regularly tweaks federal match rates for state Medicaid spending – including during the COVID-19 public health emergency – in order to assist states. Despite heavy reliance on Medicaid funding formulas, identifying the economic effect of these federal transfers has proved challenging. This is because federal Medicaid assistance (to states) is endogenous, since funding levels are correlated with unobserved factors driving state economic activity. To address this concern, we construct an instrument based on a slope discontinuity in the federal matching rate for state Medicaid spending. Using state-level panel data from 1990 to 2013, we find that federal Medicaid assistance does stimulate economic activity, but the implied cost per job created is quite high and the multiplier is well below 1. Despite modest economic effects over the entire sample period, we find that federal Medicaid assistance provided powerful fiscal stimulus to states after the Great Recession when the implied multiplier shot up to 1.5.
    Keywords: Fiscal Multiplier; Fiscal Stimulus; Medicaid Matching Grants
    JEL: C31 E62 I38 H31
    Date: 2021–09–24
  40. By: Fabian Koenings (Friedrich Schiller University Jena)
    Abstract: Immigrants who have a better command of the host country’s language are more likely to be employed and earn higher wages. Using a survey experiment among international students in Germany, I investigate whether information on the monetary benefits of mastering the language of the host country influences the intention to learn that language. The results show heterogeneous responses conditional on the current level of German language proficiency. The intended participation of international students with high German language skills is not affected, students with medium German language skills are positively affected and those with low or no German language skills are negatively affected. For policy makers, seeking to increase the level of language proficiency, this surprising negative effect suggests that there can be too much information.
    Keywords: language learning, information experiment, migration, international students
    JEL: D01 F22 J24 O15
    Date: 2021–10–05
  41. By: Hugo Castro-Silva (Universidade de Lisboa); Francisco Lima (Universidade de Lisboa)
    Abstract: In the knowledge economy, skilled workers play an important role in innovation and economic growth. However, small firms may not be able to keep these workers. We study how the knowledge-skill complementarity relates to job duration in small and large firms, using a Portuguese linked employer-employee data set. We select workers displaced by firm closure and estimate a discrete-time hazard model with unobserved heterogeneity on the subsequent job relationship. To account for the initial sorting of displaced workers to firms, we introduce weights in the model according to the individual propensity of employment in a small firm. Our results show a lower premium on skills in terms of job duration for small firms. Furthermore, we find evidence of a strong knowledge-skill complementarity in large firms, where the accumulation of firm-specific human capital also plays a more important role in determining the hazard of job separation. For small firms, the complementarity does not translate into longer job duration, even for those with pay policies above the market. Overall, small knowledge-intensive firms struggle to retain high skill workers and find it harder to leverage the knowledge-skill complementarity.
    Keywords: knowledge intensity, technology, firm size, small firms, job duration, skills
    JEL: A1
    Date: 2021
  42. By: Syed Basher; Francesca Di Iorio (University of Naples Federico II); Stefano Fachin ("Sapienza" University of Rome)
    Abstract: Bangladesh's remarkable achievements in economic and social progress put itself in a position that would have been unthinkable until a few decades ago. But did the improvement in development outcomes accrue equally to all areas in the country? We tackle this question by analyzing district-level income per capita constructed from the 2000 and 2016 rounds of the Household Income and Expenditure Survey. Estimating models based on the standard neoclassical theory of economic convergence built to take into account the impact of natural disasters, we find essentially no evidence of convergence. This implies the persistence of income diff erentials among Bangladesh's 64 districts. To check for the possibility of multiple steady states, we estimated models with a three-club structure based on the year 2000 income percentiles. The results now support the hypothesis of convergence within the group of middle-income districts, with a speed of 1.6% per annum (half-life 43 years), close to Barro's "2% iron law". A remarkable finding is the positive and significant effect of education on this club's steady state income level. Overall, these results are consistent with the notion of a rising middle class in Bangladesh in recent years. We also explore latent club structures using automatic algorithms, but we do not find any further evidence of convergence. The key policy implication of our study is that, to ensure a balanced regional development, it would be, at a minimum, necessary to enact policies extending the convergence process to the club of the poorer districts as well.
    Keywords: Bangladesh, Convergence, Regional income disparity, Middle class.
    JEL: O47 R11
    Date: 2020–11
  43. By: Leonardo Martins; Marcelo C. Medeiros
    Abstract: This paper has the goal of evaluating how changes in mobility has affected the infection spread of Covid-19 throughout the 2020-2021 years. However, identifying a "clean" causal relation is not an easy task due to a high number of non-observable (behavioral) effects. We suggest the usage of Google Trends and News-based indexes as controls for some of these behavioral effects and we find that a 1\% increase in residential mobility (i.e. a reduction in overall mobility) have significant impacts for reducing both Covid-19 cases (at least 3.02\% on a one-month horizon) and deaths (at least 2.43\% at the two-weeks horizon) over the 2020-2021 sample. We also evaluate the effects of mobility on Covid-19 spread on the restricted sample (only 2020) where vaccines were not available. The results of diminishing mobility over cases and deaths on the restricted sample are still observable (with similar magnitudes in terms of residential mobility) and cumulative higher, as the effects of restricting workplace mobility turns to be also significant: a 1\% decrease in workplace mobility diminishes cases around 1\% and deaths around 2\%.
    Date: 2021–10
  44. By: Julia Alamillo; Brian Goesling
    Abstract: This report shares findings on the impacts of an HMRE program delivered to students in two Atlanta-area high schools. The study compared groups of students who were offered two different versions of the curriculum against a control group of students who were not offered any HMRE programming.
    Keywords: healthy marriage, relationship education, youth, impact study
  45. By: Xintong Han (Concordia University and CIREQ, Department of Economics, 1455 Boulevard de Maisonneuve Ouest, Concordia University, Montreal, H3G 1M8, Canada); Mantian Mandy Hu (Chinese University of Hong Kong, School of Business, Shatin, NT, Hong Kong, SAR)
    Abstract: We collect data from Hong Kong’s foremost news media outlets’ Facebook pages from 2019 to 2020 to examine clashes of opinion on the social media platform. We find that specific writing habits signify users’ backgrounds and elicit group segregation cues from readers. An increase in pro-police comments written in Simplified Chinese induces a more polarized reaction from the opposite side compared with comments written in Traditional Chinese. The opposite side produces more anti-police comments and demands for regional independence in response. However, content generated by suspected internet water armies alleviates the clashes. The results reveal the factors that affect opinion polarization on social media platforms. They demonstrate the need for debiasing intervention and regulation.
    Keywords: social media, ideological clashes, protest, writing habits
    JEL: D71 L82 P48 P51
    Date: 2021–04
  46. By: Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Trinh, Trong-Anh; Verme, Paolo
    Abstract: Hardly any evidence currently exists on the causal effects of mental illness on refugee labor market outcomes. We offer the first study on this topic in the context of Australia, one of the host countries with the largest number of refugees per capita in the world. Analyzing the Building a New Life in Australia longitudinal survey, we exploit the variations in traumatic experiences of refugees interacted with time as an instrument for refugee mental health. We find that worse mental health, as measured by a one standard deviation increase in the Kessler mental health score, reduces the probability of employment by 14.1% and labor income by 26.8%. We also find some evidence of adverse impacts of refugees' mental illness on their children's mental health and education performance. These effects appear more pronounced for refugees that newly arrive or are without social networks, but they may be ameliorated with government support. Our findings suggest that policies that target refugees' mental health may offer a new channel to improve their labor market outcomes.
    Keywords: refugees,mental health,labor outcomes,instrumental variable,BNLA longitudinal survey,Australia
    JEL: I15 J15 J21 J61 O15
    Date: 2021
  47. By: Israel Santos Felipe (Federal University of Ouro Preto/Brazil and NIPE/Portugal); Wesley Mendes-da-Silva (Sao Paulo School of Business Administration of The Fundação Getulio Vargas); Cristiana Cerqueira Leal (School of Economics and Management & NIPE - Center for Research in Economics and Finance, University of Minho); Danilo Braun Santos (Federal University of Sao Paulo/Brazil)
    Abstract: The time-to-success of reward crowdfunding campaigns constitutes a relevant topic that has been neglected in business literature. In this study, we employ parametric and semi-parametric models of survival analysis to identify the determining factors of the duration of success of these campaigns. Based on more than 4,200 reward crowdfunding campaigns, our results are robust for controls and reveal that the campaigns that attain success most rapidly are located predominantly in cities with greater income inequality. These are cities that are characterized by lower fundraising targets and receive a larger number of pledges. In addition, our covariates indicate a non-constant influence on time-to-success during the fundraising period.
    Keywords: crowdfunding; entrepreneurial finance; fintech; survival analysis; financial innovation
    JEL: L26 G32 G41 O31 C41 I31
    Date: 2021
  48. By: Riley Sullivan
    Abstract: In New England and elsewhere, public transportation was among the many sectors immediately impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Essential workers and members of the labor force with no teleworking options and no alternate means of transportation continued to rely on public transit following the onset of the pandemic. However, with business closures, event cancellations, and social distancing regulations in effect, ridership dropped sharply, hampering transit systems’ ability to generate revenue. As of June 2021, ridership remained depressed despite the relaxation of restrictions and a general resumption of economic activity, though it is anticipated to grow slowly as workers return to offices in larger numbers. Systems with a greater reliance on fares for revenue saw large budget gaps emerge, and many responded by reducing services. In Massachusetts, MBTA service cuts garnered substantial news coverage, but the ridership declines and their implications extend beyond the large transit systems. This brief explores the trends in ridership and financing of all public transit systems in New England. The continued financial health of public transit systems has been on policy agendas, as evidenced by the substantial sums appropriated in the three COVID-19–related federal stimulus packages and the pending bipartisan infrastructure bill. The appropriations in the three stimulus packages were sufficiently large to fully offset the immediate revenue losses, and—when combined with the funding in the infrastructure bill—they could enable transit systems to make changes that might be necessary to maintain long-term financial viability and entice riders to return to public transit in a post–COVID-19 world. This brief examines information on how each transit agency in New England was funded before the pandemic. It uses long-term trends in ridership, the impact of the pandemic on ridership, and the share of operating expenses covered by revenue generated through ridership to identify areas that may require significant reforms, potentially including funding changes or service modifications, in order to maintain financial viability after the stimulus funds have been exhausted.
    Keywords: New England; NEPPC; COVID-19; public transit
    Date: 2021–09–27
  49. By: Alena Bicakova; Guido Matias Cortes; Jacopo Mazza
    Abstract: Using data for nearly 40 cohorts of American college graduates and exploiting regional variation in economic conditions, we show robust evidence of a positive relationship between the unemployment rate at the time of college enrollment and subsequent annual earnings, particularly for women. This positive relationship cannot be explained by selection into employment or by economic conditions at the time of graduation. Changes in major field of study account for only about 10% of the observed earnings gains. The results are consistent with intensified effort exerted by students who experience bad economic times at the beginning of their studies.
    Keywords: business cycle; higher education; cohort effects;
    JEL: I23 J24 J31 E32
    Date: 2021–08
  50. By: Davis, John B. (Department of Economics Marquette University)
    Abstract: Abstract: This paper is a contribution to the Erasmus Journal of Economics and Philosophy symposium on Dasgupta and Goyal’s “Narrow Identities†(2019) that models how individuals develop social identities. They do not distinguish categorical and relational social identities, model only social group social identities, minimize intersectionality (having multiple social group identities), and ignore inter-relational, social role social identities. In a club theory-like analysis, they portray the world as locked into polarized social group rivalries, where democracy matters little compared to social group loyalty. A problem with explaining social identity only in terms of social group identity is that the ‘identify with’ basis of social group loyalty undermines saying people are distinct individuals. Dasgupta and Goyal use the standard circular preferences conception of what makes people distinct individuals, so they cannot say individuals do not disappear into social groups. However, a relational social roles-based social identity analysis offers a way of explaining how people can be distinct individuals and have social identities, particularly where social group identities are connected to social role identities. This analysis is outlined using a distinction between relatively closed and relatively open behavioral domains.
    Keywords: social identity, social groups, social roles
    JEL: B41 B50
    Date: 2021–09
  51. By: Carmen van der Merwe (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University); Martin de Wit (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University)
    Abstract: Issues of landfill scarcity are propelling cities and countries to direct policy instruments towards waste management. An objective of achieving a green economy, of which there is decoupling of waste, has become the forefront of policy design in many cities around the globe. The City of Cape Town (CCT), facing similar landfill scarcity issues, has begun taking steps towards waste minimisation. To determine whether it is possible for the City to rely on economic growth to achieve absolute decoupling of waste, this study investigates the long- and short-run relationship between economic growth and municipal solid waste generation. This is done using both time series regression analysis and decoupling calculations. Furthermore, the Waste Kuznets Curve is investigated. Socio-economic and policy drivers of waste generation are included in the investigation to inform policy design. This study finds that the CCT has been experiencing long-run relative decoupling of waste, with short-run fluctuations of absolute decoupling during economic recessions. No strong long-run relationships between socio-economic variables and Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) generation for the CCT are found, however, in the short run it is deduced that population density is positively related to per capita MSW generation. The Think Twice waste minimisation programme, as a potential policy driver of MSW generation, is evaluated using a segmented linear regression. It is found that the Think Twice programme only has had temporal effects of reducing MSW generation, and that much of the reduction in MSW generation is rather explained by exogenous economic shocks, such as the 2008/2009 economic crash.
    Keywords: Waste Kuznets Curve, Environmental Kuznets Curve, Decoupling, Waste Economics, Regression Analysis, Environmental Economics
    JEL: C01 C13 C32 F63 F64 G18 O44 Q51 Q56
    Date: 2021
  52. By: Michael Alexeev (Indiana University); Nikita Zakharov (University of Freiburg - Department of Economics)
    Abstract: We investigate the relationship between oil windfalls and income inequality using the subnational data of one of the resource-richest and most unequal countries in the world – Russia. While previous literature has produced contradictory findings due to the use of an aggregate measure of oil rents in mainly cross-national settings, we focus exclusively on the oil rents that accrue to the subnational governments across one country. Our estimation strategy takes advantage of the two unique features of Russian oil taxation: 1) the change in oil-tax policy when sharing oil-extraction taxes with local budgets was discontinued; 2) the oil-tax formula tied directly to the international oil prices allowing to use the oil price shocks as an exogenous change in oil rents. When we look at the period with oil-tax revenues shared with the regional governments, we find that oil windfalls had increased income inequality and benefited the wealthiest quintile of the population in regions with more intense rent-seeking. Further, the positive oil price shocks combined with increased rent-seeking reduced the share of labor income but increased the income share from unidentified sources traditionally attributed to corruption. These effects of oil windfalls disappear after the Russian government discontinued oil-tax revenue sharing with regional governments. Finally, we examine the potential political implications of the rising inequality due to the appropriation of the oil windfalls. We find its positive effect on the frequency of protests associated with grievances among the poor and disadvantaged social groups; this effect, however, exists only in relatively democratic regions.
    Keywords: Oil, Decentralized Revenues, Income Inequality, Corruption, Protest, Russia
    Date: 2021–09
  53. By: Justin T Callais (Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Texas Tech University); Linan Peng (Department of Economics and Management, DePauw University)
    Abstract: We examine the effect of a well-known place-based policy in China, the Northeastern Revitalization Program. In 2003, the State Council of the People’s Republic of China initiated the program in northeastern China by removing an agricultural tax, enhancing the urban social security system, facilitating foreign investments, and restructuring state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the region. Using a budding case-study approach (the synthetic control method), we find that the program had no significant effect on GDP per capita in all three regions. Liaoning had slightly worse GDP per capita post-treatment, as well as Heilongjiang (albeit to a less extent). While the multiple synthetic control analysis shows that economic outcomes were worse post-treatment, the impact of this program was heterogeneous across the three regions. We argue the lackluster performance likely comes from the continuing dominance of inefficient SOEs in the provinces.
    Date: 2021–09–29
  54. By: Daniel I. Rees; Joseph J. Sabia; Rebecca Margolit
    Abstract: The minimum wage is increasingly viewed as an important tool for improving public health outcomes, including reducing childbearing among teenagers. Taken at face value, recently reported estimates suggest that raising the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour could reduce the number of teenage births by 35,000 per year. Using an event study framework that accounts for dynamic and heterogeneous treatment effects, we find little evidence that minimum wages are causally related to teenage childbearing. Moreover, the estimated effects of minimum wages on teenage sexual behaviors, including contraception use, abstinence, and number of partners are consistently small and statistically insignificant.
    JEL: J13 J18
    Date: 2021–10
  55. By: BALDONI Edoardo (European Commission - JRC); CIAIAN Pavel (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: The objective of this report is to estimate the capitalization of different Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) subsidies into rental prices and value of land in the EU. We use FADN data at regional level for the period 1989–2016 and apply a dynamic panel approach (GMM estimator) to estimate the capitalization effect of coupled direct payments (CDP), decoupled direct payments (DDP) and rural development measures at EU level. The estimated results suggest the short-run (long-run) capitalization rate of DDP to be between 9.1% and 46.2% (11% and 55%). The heterogeneous DDP models appear to have a lower capitalization rate by between 34% and 37% in the short-run and between 41% and 45% in the long-run as compared to the flat-rate models. The capitalization rate of CDPs is estimated to be around 6% in the short-run and 7% in the long-run. Rural development measures are generally found not to affect land rental prices. Regarding the capitalization estimates for land values, they are not robust and consistent across estimated models. The estimates suggest that only DDPs may cause statistically significant capitalization effects into land values: a capitalization rate between 28.8% and 32.1% in the short-run and between 154% and 164% in the long-run.
    Keywords: CAP, subsidies
    Date: 2021–09
  56. By: Tosin Shenbanjo; Melissa Mack
    Abstract: This report details how service providers in three communities continued supporting youth during the COVID-19 pandemic.
    Keywords: Performance Partnership Pilots for Disconnected Youth, P3, DOL P3/ Mathematica, COVID-19/ Covid, Coronavirus, pandemic, disconnected youth, opportunity youth/ homeless youth, foster care, justice involved youth, juvenile justice system, unemployed youth, out of school, case management, virtual
  57. By: Harriet Brookes Gray; Vis Taraz; Simon D. Halliday
    Abstract: As climate change accelerates, the frequency of extreme weather conditions will increase. We assess the impact of rising temperatures and drought on the employment outcomes of working–age individuals in South Africa between 2008 and 2017. We merge high-resolution weather data with panel survey data that contains individual labor market outcomes and estimate causal impacts using a fixed effects framework. We find that drought conditions decrease the likelihood that an individual is employed by approximately 3.2 percentage points. These effects are concentrated in the service sector and in provinces that are more reliant on tourism. The employment outcomes of women, part-time workers, and workers without a high school diploma appear to especially sensitive to drought. Taken together, our results suggest that the impacts of climate change will be felt unequally by South Africa’s workers
    Date: 2021–09–07
  58. By: Seibert, Holger (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Wapler, Rüdiger (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)
    Abstract: "Immigrants to Germany today are significantly better qualified than in the past. At present, roughly a third have a university degree. At the same time, two fifths of them have no professional qualification. This report analyses the qualification structure, the national composition, and the employment prospects of new immigrants in Germany." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    Keywords: Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; berufliche Integration ; EU-Bürger ; Drittstaatsangehörige ; Einwanderer ; Einwanderung ; Entwicklung ; Geflüchtete ; Herkunftsland ; Qualifikationsstruktur ; 2000-2018
    Date: 2020–04–02
  59. By: Jay Hyun; Ziho Park; Vladimir Smirnyagin
    Abstract: Using administrative data on U.S. multisector firms, we document a cross-sectoral propagation of the import competition from China (“China shock”) through firms’ internal networks: Employment of an establishment in a given industry is negatively affected by China shock that hits establishments in other industries within the same firm. This indirect propagation channel impacts both manufacturing and non-manufacturing establishments, and it operates primarily through the establishment exit. We explore a range of explanations for our findings, highlighting the role of within-firm trade across sectors, scope of production, and establishment size. At the sectoral aggregate level, China shock that propagates through firms’ internal networks has a sizable impact on industry-level employment dynamics.
    Keywords: China shock, import competition, multisector firms, multiproduct firms, network propagation, trade
    JEL: D22 F14 F40
    Date: 2021–09
  60. By: Tchuente, Guy; Kakeu, Johnson; Francois, John Nana
    Abstract: Income inequality is a distributional phenomenon. This paper examines the impact of U.S governor's party allegiance (Republican vs Democrat) on ethnic wage gap. A descriptive analysis of the distribution of yearly earnings of Whites and Blacks reveals a divergence in their respective shapes over time suggesting that aggregate analysis may mask important heterogeneous effects. This motivates a granular estimation of the comparative causal effect of governors' party affiliation on labor market outcomes. We use a regression discontinuity design (RDD) based on marginal electoral victories and samples of quantiles groups by wage and hours worked. Overall, the distributional causal estimations show that the vast majority of subgroups of black workers earnings are not affected by democrat governors' policies, suggesting the possible existence of structural factors in the labor markets that contribute to create and keep a wage trap and/or hour worked trap for most of the subgroups of black workers. Democrat governors increase the number of hours worked of black workers at the highest quartiles of earnings. A bivariate quantiles groups analysis shows that democrats decrease the total hours worked for black workers who have the largest number of hours worked and earn the least. Black workers earning more and working fewer hours than half of the sample see their number of hours worked increase under a democrat governor.
    Keywords: U.S. State Policy,Black Workers,US Labor Market,RDD,Governors' Effects Heterogeneity,Bivariate Quantile Causality
    JEL: D72 J15 J22 J31 R23
    Date: 2021
  61. By: Benjamin Lester; David A. Rivers; Giorgio Topa
    Abstract: We document a new set of facts regarding the impact of referrals on labor market outcomes. Our results highlight the importance of distinguishing between different types of referrals—those from family and friends and those from business contacts—and different occupations. Then we develop an on-the-job search model that incorporates referrals and calibrate the model to key moments in the data. The calibrated model yields new insights into the roles played by different types of referrals in the match formation process, and provides quantitative estimates of the effects of referrals on employment, earnings, output, and inequality.
    Keywords: labor markets; referrals; networks; search theory; asymmetric information
    JEL: E42 E43 E44 E52 E58
    Date: 2021–10–01
  62. By: Buch, Tanja (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Carstensen, Jeanette (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Hamann, Silke (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Otto, Anne (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Seibert, Holger (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Sieglen, Georg (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)
    Abstract: "Cross-Border commuters are people with a foreign nationality who live abroad but are employed in Germany. This report documents the development of cross-border commuting in Germany between 1999 and 2019, the importance of the various countries of origin and the professions and activities that cross-border commuters pursue." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    Keywords: Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; ausländische Arbeitnehmer ; Beschäftigungsentwicklung ; Bundesländer ; Entwicklung ; Grenzgebiet ; Grenzpendler ; Herkunftsland ; Osteuropäer ; Pendelwanderung ; Qualifikationsstruktur ; regionaler Vergleich ; Tätigkeitsfelder ; 1999-2019
    Date: 2020–04–07
  63. By: Isabel Brizuela; Julianne Dunn
    Abstract: The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland regularly surveys a broad cross-section of businesses in the region it serves and convenes business advisory councils in eight of the region’s major metropolitan areas. The information collected through these surveys and conversations points to trends that are not yet apparent in the data and fills gaps in researchers’ understanding of our region’s economy. The information is helpful to Federal Reserve policymakers during their discussions about the nation’s monetary policy. Anecdotes herein have been edited for length and clarity.
    Keywords: COVID-19; Housing
    Date: 2029–09–29
  64. By: Prem, M; Purroy, M. E.; Vargas, J. F.
    Abstract: Demining campaigns are key to remove anti-personnel landmines, one of the main causes of civilian victimization in conflict-affected areas and a significant obstacle for post-war reconstruction and long-term development. We argue that the documented positive economic effects of mines' clearance campaigns is likely not the case if demining operations take place while conflicts are ongoing or if they are only partial. Using highly disaggregated data on demining operations in Colombia from 2004 to 2019 and exploiting the staggered fashion of demining, we find that only post-conflict humanitarian demining generates economic growth (measured with nighttime light density) and increases students' performance in test scores. In contrast, economic activity does not react to post-conflict demining events carried out during military operations, and it decreases if demining takes place while the conflict is ongoing. Rather, those types of demining are more likely to exacerbate extractive activities that do not manifest in higher economic growth but increase deforestation instead
    Keywords: Landmines, demining, conflict, peace, local development
    JEL: D74 P48 Q56 I25
    Date: 2021–09–16
  65. By: Adena, Maja; Harke, Julian
    Abstract: Has the COVID-19 pandemic affected pro-sociality among individuals? After the onset of the pandemic, many charitable appeals were updated to include a reference to COVID-19. Did donors increase their giving in response to such changes? In order to answer these questions, we conducted a real-donation online experiment with more than 4,200 participants from 149 local areas in England and over 21 weeks. First, we varied the fundraising appeal to either include or exclude a reference to COVID-19. We found that including the reference to COVID-19 in the appeal increased donations. Second, in a natural experiment-like approach, we studied how the relative local severity of the pandemic and media coverage about local COVID-19 severity affected giving in our experiment. We found that both higher local severity and more related articles increased giving of participants in the respective areas. This holds for different specifications, including specifications with location fixed effects, time fixed effects, a broad set of individual characteristics to account for a potentially changing composition of the sample over time and to account for health- and work-related experiences with and expectations regarding the pandemic. While negative experiences with COVID-19 correlate negatively with giving, both approaches led us to conclude that the pure effect of increased salience of the pandemic on pro-sociality is positive. Despite the shift in public attention toward the domestic fight against the pandemic and away from developing countries' challenges, we found that preferences did not shift toward giving more to a national project and less to developing countries.
    Keywords: COVID-19,charitable giving,online experiments,natural experiments
    JEL: C93 D64 D12
    Date: 2021
  66. By: Natarajan Balasubramanian; Mariko Sakakibara
    Abstract: Using matched employer-employee data from 30 U.S. states, we compare spinouts with new ventures formed by incumbents (INCs). We propose a selection-based framework comprising idea selection by parents to internally implement ideas as INCs, entrepreneurial selection by founders to form spinouts, and managerial selection to close ventures. Consistent with parents choosing better ideas in the idea selection stage, we find that INCs perform relatively better than spinouts, and more so with larger parents. Regarding the entrepreneurial selection stage, we find evidence consistent with resource requirements being a greater entry barrier to spinouts and greater information asymmetry promoting spinout formation. Parents’ resource redeployment opportunities are associated with lower relative survival of INCs, consistent with their being subject to greater selection pressures in the managerial selection stage.
    Keywords: spinouts, new venture formation process, new venture performance, selection, resource redeployability
    Date: 2021–09
  67. By: Luisa Corrado (DEF and CEIS, Università di Roma "Tor Vergata"); Andrea Fazio (Università di Roma La Sapienza); Alessandra Pelloni (DEF, Università di Roma "Tor Vergata")
    Abstract: We investigate some motivations of recycling, using Italian survey data. We find that people declaring an interest in environmental issues or belonging to an environmental association are more likely to recycle. This suggests that the motivations for behaving pro-environmentally have an expressive and noninstrumental motivation. However, we also find that if people perceive to live in a deteriorated environment, they are less likely to recycle. We discuss possible explanations for this finding.
    Keywords: Pro-Environmental Behavior, Intrinsic Motivation, Recycling, Environmental Degradation
    JEL: Q57 Q53 R11 D91
    Date: 2021–09–02
  68. By: Mauch, Michael; Skabardonis, Alex
    Abstract: The Freeway Service Patrol (FSP) is an incident management program implemented by Caltrans, the California Highway Patrol and local partner agencies to quickly detect and assist disabled vehicles and reduce non-recurring congestion along the freeway during peak commute hours. The first FSP program was piloted in Los Angeles, and was later expanded to other regions by state legislation in 1991. As of June 2019, there were fourteen participating FSP Programs operating in California, deploying 338 tow trucks and covering over 1,806 (centerline) miles of congested California freeways. The purpose of this research project was to evaluate the effectiveness of the Caltrans FSP program in reducing incident durations and removal of other obstructions that directly contribute to freeway congestion for Caltrans fiscal year 2019-2020. The project provides valuable information to agencies managing the FSP program so that resources are distributed within the various statewide FSP operations in the most efficient and cost-effective manner possible. The tools used and the operational performance measures provided by this research effort will significantly contribute on the ongoing agencies’ efforts to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the FSP program.
    Keywords: Engineering
    Date: 2021–09–01

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