nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2021‒09‒27
sixty-six papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. House prices and misallocation: The impact of the collateral channel on productivity By Sergi Basco; David López-Rodríguez; Enrique Moral-Benito
  2. Regionally Heterogeneous Housing Cycles and Stabilization Policies By Hyunduk Suh
  3. New Evidence on Redlining by Federal Housing Programs in the 1930s By Price V. Fishback; Jonathan Rose; Kenneth A. Snowden; Thomas Storrs
  4. House prices and rents: a reappraisal By Bertrand Achou; Hippolyte d'Albis; Eleni Iliopulo
  5. The Geography of Unemployment By Adrien Bilal
  6. Road Capacity, Domestic Trade and Regional Outcomes By A. Kerem Cosar; Banu Demir Pakel; Devaki Ghose; Nathaniel Young
  7. Urban Resilience By Edward L. Glaeser
  8. The Pitfalls of Using Location Quotients to Identify Clusters and Represent Industry Specialization in Small Regions By Andrew Crawley; Todd M. Gabe; Mariya Pominova
  9. Web Scraping Housing Prices in Real-time: the Covid-19 Crisis in the UK By Jean-Charles Bricongne; Baptiste Meunier; Sylvain Pouget
  10. Modeling the economic effects of increased drop-out rates from high school By Peter B. Dixon; Maureen T. Rimmer; Scott Farrow
  11. Police Officer Assignment and Neighborhood Crime By Bocar Ba; Patrick Bayer; Nayoung Rim; Roman Rivera; Modibo Sidibé
  12. The Pandemic’s Effect on Demand for Public Schools, Homeschooling, and Private Schools By Tareena Musaddiq; Kevin M. Stange; Andrew Bacher-Hicks; Joshua Goodman
  13. On the Positive Slope of the Beveridge Curve in the Housing Market By Miroslav Gabrovski; Victor Ortego-Marti
  14. Longing for Which Home: Evidence from Global Aspirations to Stay, Return or Migrate Onwards By Els Bekaert; Amelie F. Constant; Killian Foubert; Ilse Ruyssen
  15. Perceptions of Racial Gaps, their Causes, and Ways to Reduce Them By Alberto Alesina; Matteo F. Ferroni; Stefanie Stantcheva
  16. Smart cities and flagship stores: kitchen furniture By Aurelio Volpe; Donatella Cheri; Sara Banfi
  17. Forward Guidance Effectiveness in a New Keynesian Model with Housing Frictions By Cole, Stephen J.; Huh, Sungjun
  18. The Accessibility Shift: Conceptual Obstacles and How to Overcome (One of) Them By Jonathan Levine
  19. The Impact of Natives' Attitudes Towards Immigrants on Their Integration in the Host Country By Pia Schilling; Steven Stillman
  20. The Covid-19 containment effects of public health measures: A spatial difference-in-differences approach By Kosfeld, Reinhold; Mitze, Timo; Rode, Johannes; Wälde, Klaus
  21. Circular City Index: An Open Data analysis to assess the urban circularity preparedness of cities to address the green transition -- A study on the Italian municipalities By Alessio Muscillo; Simona Re; Sergio Gambacorta; Giuseppe Ferrara; Nicola Tagliafierro; Emiliano Borello; Alessandro Rubino; Angelo Facchini
  22. Zoom in, zoom out: A shift-share analysis of productivity in Switzerland based on micro data By Jean-Marie Grether; Benjamin Tissot-Daguette
  23. Life Course Effects Of The Lanham Preschools: What The First Government Preschool Effort Can Tell Us About Universal Early Care And Education Today By Taletha M. Derrington; Alison Huang; Joseph P. Ferrie
  24. School Integration of Refugee Children: Evidence from the Largest Refugee Group in any Country By Murat Guray Kirdar; Ismet Koc; Meltem Dayıoglu
  25. The micro-politics of Traveller accommodation and housing provision: sites of conflict, ambiguous implementation and symbolic policy making By Michelle Norris; Eoin O'Sullivan; Anna Visser
  26. Can the characteristics of new mortgages predict borrowers’ financial stress? Insights from the 2014 oil price decline By Olga Bilyk; Ken Chow; Yang Xu
  27. Brussels: a productive and residential city By Hugo d'Assenza-David
  28. A spatial AMH copula-based dissimilarity measure to cluster variables in panel data By F. Marta L. Di Lascio; Andrea Menapace; Roberta Pappadà
  29. Birthplace favoritism and quality of education By Vu, Tien Manh; Yamada, Hiroyuki
  30. Geographical-Proximity Bias in P2B Crowdlending Strategies By Carole Gresse; Hugo Marin
  31. The Role of Social Connectedness: Evidence from Mergers and Acquisitions By Giang Nguyen; Hannah Nguyen; Hung Pham
  32. Case Study of a Job Training, Housing, and Family Support Program for Young Mothers: New Moms By Marisa Putnam; Liza Rodler
  33. Accessibility and Transport Appraisal: Approaches and Limitations By Karst Guers
  34. Credit demand versus supply channels: Experimental- and administrative-based evidence By Michelangeli, Valentina; Peydró, José-Luis; Sette, Enrico
  35. The Returns to College(s): Relative Value-Added and Match Effects in Higher Education By Jack Mountjoy; Brent R. Hickman
  36. The Faster the Better? The Effect of Ultra-Fast Broadband on Students’ Performance By Carlo Cambini; Lorien Sabatino; Sarah Zaccagni
  37. Consumption, personal income, financial wealth, housing wealth, and long-term interest rates: A panel cointegration approach for 50 US states By Dimitra Kontana; Stilianos Fountas
  38. Measuring Accessibility: Methods and Issues By Eric Miller
  39. Multinationals, innovation and institutional context: IPR protection and distance effects By Bruno, Randolph L.; Crescenzi, Riccardo; Estrin, Saul; Petralia, Sergio
  40. Municipal and sub-federal debt market in 2020 By Shadrin Artem
  41. Russia’s Transportation Industry By Borzykh Ksenia; Ponomarev Yuri
  42. Is Social Capital Valuable? Evidence from Mergers and Acquisitions By Jo-Ann Suchard; Giang Nguyen; Yuelin Wang
  43. Network Games, Peer Effect and Neutral Transfers By Dike Chukwudi Henry
  44. A policy proposal to deal with excessive cultural tourism By Bruno S. Frey; Andre Briviba
  45. A People-Centred Approach to Accessibility By Karel Martens
  46. The impact of COVID-19 on mobility choices in Switzerland By Hintermann, Beat; Schoeman, Beaumont; Molloy, Joseph; Schatzmann, Thomas; Tchervenkov, Christopher; Axhausen, Kay W.
  47. Development of an Innovation Corridor Testbed for Shared Electric Connected and Automated Transportation By Oswald, David; Hao, Peng; Williams, Nigel; Barth, Matthew
  48. How Do Immigrants Promote Exports? Networks, Knowledge, Diversity By Gianluca Orefice; Hillel Rapoport; Gianluca Santoni
  49. An AI-assisted Economic Model of Endogenous Mobility and Infectious Diseases: The Case of COVID-19 in the United States By Lin William Cong; Ke Tang; Bing Wang; Jingyuan Wang
  50. Case Study of an Employment Program for Youth and Services for Families: Community Action Organization (CAO) of Scioto County By Lindsay Ochoa; Pamela Holcomb
  51. Monetary policy, agent heterogeneity and inequality: insights from a three-agent New Keynesian model By Eskelinen, Maria
  52. The Plant-Level View of an Industrial Policy: The Korean Heavy Industry Drive of 1973 By Minho Kim; Munseob Lee; Yongseok Shin
  53. Intangibles and industry concentration: Supersize me By Matej Bajgar; Chiara Criscuolo; Jonathan Timmis
  54. Reconciling Accessibility Benefits with User Benefits By Jonas Eliasson
  55. Constrained School Choice with Incomplete Information By Hugo Gimbert; Claire Mathieu; Simon Mauras
  56. Furlough and Household Financial Distress during the Covid-19 Pandemic By Christoph Görtz; Danny McGowan; Mallory Yeromonahos
  57. Case Study of a Collaborative Approach to Improving Community-Based Services for People with Low Income: Community Caring Collaborative By Katie Eddins; Kristen Joyce
  58. Case Study of an Employment Program Serving People with Low Income: Business Link By Riley Webster; Mary Farrell
  59. Using Satellite Imagery and Machine Learning to Estimate the Livelihood Impact of Electricity Access By Nathan Ratledge; Gabriel Cadamuro; Brandon De la Cuesta; Matthieu Stigler; Marshall Burke
  60. Economic consequences of follow-up disasters: lessons from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake By Anastasios Evgenidis; Masashige Hamano; Wessel N. Vermeulen
  61. Cargo Routing and Disadvantaged Communities By Jaller, Miguel; Pahwa, Anmol; Zhang, Michael
  62. “Whom you know” and labour market outcomes: An empirical investigation in Ghana. By Baah-Boateng, William; Twum, Eric; Twumasi Baffour, Priscilla
  63. Does Education Prevent Job Loss During Downturns? Evidence from Exogenous School Assignments and COVID-19 in Barbados By Diether W. Beuermann; Nicolas L. Bottan; Bridget Hoffmann; C. Kirabo Jackson; Diego A. Vera Cossio
  64. Economic linkages, technology transfers, and firm heterogeneity: The case of manufacturing firms in the Southern Key Economic Zone of Vietnam By Nguyen, Chi-Hai; Ngo, Quang-Thanh; Pham, My-Duyen; Nguyen, Anh-Tuan; Huynh, Ngoc-Chuong
  65. Relationship between urbanization and health outcomes in Indian states By TRIPATHI, SABYASACHI
  66. Community Colleges and Upward Mobility By Jack Mountjoy

  1. By: Sergi Basco (Universitat de Barcelona); David López-Rodríguez (Banco de España); Enrique Moral-Benito (Banco de España)
    Abstract: This paper empirically investigates the impact of local house price booms on capital misallocation within manufacturing industries. Using the geographic variation provided by the salient Spanish housing boom (2003-2007), we show that manufacturing firms exposed to positive local house price shocks received more credit from banks and their investment grew more intensively when they had a larger proportion of collateralizable real estate assets. We exploit the geographical variation in both house prices and pre-boom urban land supply at municipality level to document that this collateral channel was exacerbated for firms located in urban land-constrained geographical areas where real estate appreciation was larger. The interaction of geographical conditions, that led to heterogeneous housing booms, with the collateral channel on investment resulted in an increasing dispersion of the capital-labor ratio within industries. A simple counterfactual calculation suggests that the misallocation generated by the collateral channel on investment could account for between one-quarter and half of the fall in TFP experienced in the Spanish manufacturing sector over the housing boom.
    Keywords: housing boom, misallocation, collateral channel, productivity
    JEL: E22 E44 O16
    Date: 2021–09
  2. By: Hyunduk Suh (Inha University)
    Abstract: Housing cycles can vary significantly across regions. This study investigates the macroeconomic implications of regionally heterogeneous housing cycles and stabilization policies. The general equilibrium model includes two separate regions, idiosyncratic shocks in regional housing markets, and inter-regional housing investments by households. Counterfactual simulations suggest that regional housing cycles can be a source of economic inequality between regions and the level of financial status by affecting consumption, housing service, debt and welfare asymmetrically across agents. Region-specific stabilization policies such as property tax, countercyclical loan-to-value, and housing supply policies can mitigate regional housing cycles, but it takes large policy responses if the cycle is caused by housing exuberance (demand) shocks. Those policies also have asymmetric welfare effects, while housing supply policy is the most beneficial to agents in the region that experiences the cycle. Leaning against the wind monetary policy is relatively ineffective in stabilizing regional housing prices and higher interest rates during housing price appreciations lower the welfare of borrowers in all regions.
    Keywords: Regionally heterogeneous housing cycles, monetary policy, macroprudential policy, housing
    JEL: E32 R31
    Date: 2021–09
  3. By: Price V. Fishback; Jonathan Rose; Kenneth A. Snowden; Thomas Storrs
    Abstract: We show that the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), from its inception in the 1930s, did not insure mortgages in low income urban neighborhoods where the vast majority of urban Black Americans lived. The agency evaluated neighborhoods using block-level information collected by New Deal relief programs and the Census in many cities. The FHA’s exclusionary pattern predates the advent of the infamous maps later made by the Home Owners’ Loan Corporation (HOLC) and shows little change after the drafting of those maps. In contrast, the HOLC itself broadly loaned to such neighborhoods and to Black homeowners. We conclude that the HOLC’s redlining maps had little effect on the geographic distribution of either program’s mortgage market activity, and that the FHA crafted and implemented its own redlining methodology prior to the HOLC.
    JEL: G21 G22 G28 G5 N22 N42 N92 R31
    Date: 2021–09
  4. By: Bertrand Achou; Hippolyte d'Albis; Eleni Iliopulo
    Abstract: In this work we introduce rental markets in a general equilibrium model with borrowing constraints and infinitely lived agents. We estimate our model using standard Bayesian methods and match US data on recent decades. We highlight a crucial relationship that strongly links interest rates, house prices, and rents. It represents agents’ arbitrage when choosing their degree of participation in the housing market (i.e., their real estate holdings). This framework is particularly well suited for explaining recent trends in housing markets. It also allows us to parsimoniously track the unequal impact of shocks on agents’ decisions and welfare, depending on their housing status.
    Keywords: Housing, Rental Markets, Collateral Constraints, Financial Frictions
    JEL: E3 G1 C1 I3
    Date: 2021
  5. By: Adrien Bilal
    Abstract: Unemployment rates differ widely across local labor markets. I offer new empirical evidence that high local unemployment emerges because of elevated local job losing rates. Local employers, rather than local workers, account for most of spatial gaps in job stability. I then propose a theory in which spatial differences in job loss arise endogenously, due to the spatial sorting of heterogeneous employers across local labor markets. Labor market frictions induce productive employers to over-value locating close to each other. The optimal policy incentivizes them to relocate to areas with high job losing rates, providing a rationale for commonly used place-based policies. I estimate the model using French administrative data. The estimated model accounts for over three fourths of the cross-sectional dispersion in unemployment rates, as well as for the respective contributions of job losing and job finding rates. Employers' inefficient location choices amplify spatial unemployment differentials five-fold. Both real-world and optimal place-based policies can yield sizable local and aggregate welfare gains.
    JEL: E20 E24 E60 F16 H21 J42 J61 J63 J64 R13 R23
    Date: 2021–09
  6. By: A. Kerem Cosar; Banu Demir Pakel; Devaki Ghose; Nathaniel Young
    Abstract: What is the impact on intra-national trade and regional economic outcomes when the quality and lane-capacity of an existing paved road network is expanded significantly? We investigate this question for the case of Turkey, which undertook a large-scale public investment in roads during the 2000s. Using spatially disaggregated data on road upgrades and domestic transactions, we estimate a large positive impact of reduced travel times on trade as well as local manufacturing employment and wages. A quantitative exercise using a workhorse model of spatial equilibrium implies heterogeneous effects across locations, with aggregate real income gains reaching 2-3 percent in the long-run. Reductions in travel times increased local employment-to-population ratio but had no effect on local population. We extend the model by endogenizing the labor supply decision to capture this finding. The model-implied elasticity of employment rates to travel time reductions captures about one-third of the empirical elasticity.
    Keywords: trade, market access, transportation infrastructure
    JEL: F14 R11 R41
    Date: 2021
  7. By: Edward L. Glaeser
    Abstract: Will COVID-19 end the urban renaissance that many cities have experienced since the 1980s? This essay selectively reviews the copious literature that now exists on the long-term impact of natural disasters. At this point, the long-run resilience of cities to many forms of physical destruction, including bombing, earthquakes and fires, has been well-documented. The destruction of human capital may leave a longer imprint, but cities have persisted through many plagues over the past millennia. By contrast, economic and political shocks, including deindustrialization or the loss of capital city status, can enormously harm an urban area. These facts suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic will only significantly alter urban fortunes, if it is accompanied by a major economic shift, such as widespread adoption of remote work, or political shifts that could lead businesses and the wealthy to leave urban areas. The combination of an increased ability to relocate with increased local redistribution or deterioration of local amenity levels or both could recreate some of the key attributes of the urban crisis of the 1970s.
    JEL: R11 R23 R28 R5 R53 R58
    Date: 2021–09
  8. By: Andrew Crawley; Todd M. Gabe; Mariya Pominova
    Abstract: This paper examines the use of location quotients, a measure of regional business activity relative to the national benchmark, as an indicator of sectoral agglomeration in small cities and towns, and as a measure of industry specialization that might impact the number of new business startups in these places. Using establishment-level data on businesses located in Maine, our findings suggest that the addition of one "hypothetical" establishment in very small towns leads to a dramatic change in the magnitude of the region-industry location quotient. At population sizes of about 4,100 or more people, however, location quotients are reasonably stable. Regression results from an analysis of the relationship between new business activity and regional industry specialization show that the effect of location quotients on business startups switches from "inelastic" to "elastic" at a population size cutoff of about 2,600 residents. Overall, our findings suggest that researchers and practitioners should exercise caution when using location quotients to study small regions.
    Keywords: Agglomeration; Industrial Cluster; Location Quotient; Regional Economics; Rural
    JEL: R10 R11 R12
    Date: 2021–09–10
  9. By: Jean-Charles Bricongne; Baptiste Meunier; Sylvain Pouget
    Abstract: While official statistics provide lagged and aggregate information on the housing market, extensive information is available publicly on real-estate websites. By web scraping them for the UK on a daily basis, this paper extracts a large database from which we build timelier and highly granular indicators. One originality of the dataset is to provide the sellers’ perspective, allowing to compute innovative indicators of the housing market such as the number of new posted offers or how prices fluctuate over time for existing offers. Matching selling prices in our dataset with transacted prices from the notarial database using machine learning techniques allows us to measure the negotiation margin of buyers – an innovation to the literature. During the Covid-19 crisis, these indicators demonstrate the freezing of the market and the “wait-and-see” behaviour of sellers. They also show that prices have been increasing in rural regions after the lockdown but experienced a continued decline in London.
    Keywords: Housing, Real-time, Big Data, Web Scraping, High Frequency, United Kingdom
    JEL: E01 R30
    Date: 2021
  10. By: Peter B. Dixon; Maureen T. Rimmer; Scott Farrow
    Abstract: With Covid, high-school students are having difficulty staying in school. We present a dynamic model of the effects of increased drop-out rates. The model accounts for labor productivity, crime costs and high-school savings. We simulate a 25 per cent increase in drop-out rates occurring in the two years starting September 2019, with a gradual return to pre-Covid rates in 2025. Our results show a loss of 597,000 high-school graduations from cohorts entering high-school in 2016-2024. The present-value cost is between $42 and $137 billion, depending on discount rates. These results support investment in high-school retention policies through the Covid crisis.
    Keywords: Covid and high-school drop-out rates, dynamic model of student numbers, educational attainment of workforce, cost of reduced high-school graduation rates
    JEL: I26 J08 J24
    Date: 2021–09
  11. By: Bocar Ba; Patrick Bayer; Nayoung Rim; Roman Rivera; Modibo Sidibé
    Abstract: We develop an empirical model of the mechanism used to assign police officers to Chicago districts and examine the efficiency and equity of alternative allocations. We document that the current bidding process, which grants priority based on seniority, results in the assignment of more experienced officers to less violent and high-income neighborhoods. Our empirical model combines estimates of heterogeneous officer preferences underlying the bidding process with causal estimates of the effects of officer experience on neighborhood crime. Equalizing officer seniority across districts would reduce violent crime rate by 4.6 percent and significantly decrease inequality in crime, discretionary arrests, and officer use of force across neighborhoods. Moreover, this assignment can be achieved in a revenue-neutral way while resulting in small welfare gains for police officers, implying that it is more equitable and efficient.
    JEL: H4 H72 J3 K4 K42
    Date: 2021–09
  12. By: Tareena Musaddiq; Kevin M. Stange; Andrew Bacher-Hicks; Joshua Goodman
    Abstract: The Covid-19 pandemic drastically disrupted the functioning of U.S. public schools, potentially changing the relative appeal of alternatives such as homeschooling and private schools. Using longitudinal student-level administrative data from Michigan and nationally representative data from the Census Household Pulse Survey, we show how the pandemic affected families’ choices of school sector. We document four central facts. First, public school enrollment declined noticeably in fall 2020, with about 3 percent of Michigan students and 10 percent of kindergartners using other options. Second, most of this was driven by homeschooling rates jumping substantially, driven largely by families with children in elementary school. Third, homeschooling increased more where schools provided in-person instruction while private schooling increased more where instruction was remote, suggesting heterogeneity in parental concerns about children’s physical health and instructional quality. Fourth, kindergarten declines were highest among low income and Black families while declines in other grades were highest among higher income and White families, highlighting important heterogeneity by students’ existing attachment to public schools. Our results shed light on how families make schooling decisions and imply potential longer-run disruptions to public schools in the form of decreased enrollment and funding, changed composition of the student body, and increased size of the next kindergarten cohort.
    JEL: I20 I24
    Date: 2021–09
  13. By: Miroslav Gabrovski; Victor Ortego-Marti (Department of Economics, University of California Riverside)
    Abstract: The co-movement of buyers and vacancies, i.e. the Beveridge Curve, is a key determinant of the cyclical properties of the housing market, as it determines the sign of the correlation between prices and key measures of liquidity such as vacancies (i.e.\ houses for sale), sales, and time-to-sell. As recent work has shown, to account for the core stylized facts of the housing market, search and matching models must be consistent with a positively correlated co-movement of buyers and vacancies, i.e.\ with an upward-sloping Beveridge Curve. This paper provides evidence that buyers and vacancies are positively correlated along the housing cycle, i.e. the Beveridge Curve on the housing market is upward sloping. Using data on vacancies and time-to-sell, we construct a series for buyers and estimate the slope of the Beveridge Curve. This approach requires only one minimal structural assumption: the existence of a matching function. Our findings confirm the positive relationship between buyers and vacancies over the business cycle, i.e. an upward sloping Beveridge Curve. In addition, we provide an estimate of the elasticity of vacancies with respect to buyers. We find that a one percent increase in vacancies is associated with around a two percent increase in buyers, confirming recent findings that buyers are more volatile than houses for sale. We hope that this estimate will help future researchers in this area.
    Keywords: Housing market; Search and matching; Beveridge Curve; Housing liquidity
    JEL: E2 E32 R21 R31
    Date: 2021–09
  14. By: Els Bekaert; Amelie F. Constant; Killian Foubert; Ilse Ruyssen
    Abstract: Aspirations provide the underlying dynamics of the behavior of individuals whether they are realized or not. Knowledge about the characteristics and motives of those who aspire to leave the host country is key for both host and home countries to formulate appropriate and effective policies in order to keep their valued immigrants or citizens and foster their (re-)integration. Based on unique individual-level Gallup World Polls data, a random utility model, and a multinomial logit we model the aspirations or stated preferences of immigrants across 138 countries worldwide. Our analysis reveals selection in characteristics, a strong role for soft factors like social ties and sociocultural integration, and a faint role for economic factors. Changes in circumstances in the home and host countries are also important determinants of aspirations. Results differ by the host countries’ level of economic development.
    Keywords: economics of immigrants, geographic labor mobility, public policy, microeconomic behaviour, underlying principles, international migration, large data sets, modelling and analysis
    JEL: J15 J61 J68 D01 F22 C55
    Date: 2021
  15. By: Alberto Alesina; Matteo F. Ferroni; Stefanie Stantcheva
    Abstract: Using new large-scale survey and experimental data, we investigate how respondents perceive racial inequities between Black and white Americans, what they believe causes them, and what interventions, if any, they think should be implemented to reduce them. We intentionally oversample Black respondents, cover many cities in the US, and survey both adults and very young people aged 13 to 17. In the experimental parts, we consider the causal impact of information on racial inequities (such as the evolution of the Black-white earnings gap or the differences in mobility for Black and white children) and explanations for these inequities (i.e., the deep-seated roots and long-lasting consequences of systemic racism) on respondents' views. Although there is heterogeneity in how respondents perceive the magnitude of current racial gaps in economic conditions and opportunities, the biggest discrepancies are in how they explain them. There is a stark partisan gap among white respondents, particularly in the perceived causes of racial inequities and what should be done about them. White Democrats and Black respondents are much more likely to attribute racial inequities to adverse past and present circumstances and want to act on them with race-targeted and general redistribution policies. At the same time, white Republicans are more likely to attribute racial gaps to individual actions. These views are already deeply entrenched in teenagers based on their race and their parents' political affiliation. A policy decomposition shows that the perceived causes of racial inequities correlate most strongly with support for race-targeted or general redistribution policies, a finding confirmed by the experimental results.
    JEL: D31 D72 H23 H24 H41 J15 P16
    Date: 2021–09
  16. By: Aurelio Volpe (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies); Donatella Cheri (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies); Sara Banfi (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies)
    Abstract: The GOAL of the Report 'Smart cities and flagship stores: kitchen furniture" is to provide: Kitchen companies with a tool to identify potential locations where to set their mono-brand stores, keeping into account potential synergies (for instance the presence of complementary brands) as well as an indicator of the cost of the area; The industry, in general, with an analysis on the medium-term trends affecting the main cities worldwide; The Report provides profiles of 85 cities worldwide with a selection of economic and demographic indicators (2013 and 2018), estimates of the potential market for kitchen furniture, in each city and the forecasts for the market development to the year 2023 (*). The study also offers an analysis of the geographical presence of a selected sample of 65 brands, each of which operates as a trend-setter in its own category. Each identified location is characterized by its type (store, multibrand store, shopping centre) and the cost of the area in which they are located. The aim is, thus, to provide a comprehensive view of the cities that a selection of international retailers entered. Finally, each profile presents a selection of kitchen furniture stores, in 82 out of the 85 selected cities. For each CITY PROFILE, the following data, indicators and forecasts are provided: Population and its rank within the sample, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Households and its rank within the sample, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Gross domestic product per capita and its rank within the sample, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Household’s consumption per capita and its rank within the sample, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Gross domestic product and its rank within the sample, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Household’s consumption and its rank within the sample, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Breakdown of households by the level of income, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Kitchen furniture demand and its growth rate, 2013, 2018 and 2023; Spatial analysis of the distribution of 50 brands within the city map; Spatial distribution of a selection of kitchen furniture stores. SELECTED CITIES group by geographic areas: Asia and Pacific: Melbourne, AU; Sydney, AU; Beijing, CN; Chengdu, CN; Chongqing, CN; Guangzhou, CN; Hangzhou, CN; Hong Kong, CN; Jinan, CN; Shanghai, CN; Tianjin, CN; Bangalore, IN; Mumbai, IN; Delhi, IN; Osaka, JP; Tokyo, JP; Seoul, KR; Kuala Lumpur-Klang Valley, MY; Auckland, NZ; Singapore, SG; Bangkok, TH; Ho Chi Minh City, VT. Eastern Europe outside the EU and Russia: Moscow, RU; Saint Petersburg, RU; Ankara, TR; Istanbul, TR; Kiev, UA. Europe: Vienna, AT; Brussels, BE; Prague, CZ; Copenhagen, DK; Helsinki, FI; Lyon, FR; Paris, FR; Berlin, DE; Frankfurt, DE; Munich, DE; Athens, GR; Budapest, HU; Dublin, IE; Milan, IT; Rome, IT; Amsterdam, NL; Oslo, NO; Warsaw, PO; Lisbon, PT; Bucharest, RO; Barcelona, ES; Madrid, ES; Stockholm, SE; Zurich, CH; London, UK; Manchester, UK. Middle East and Africa: Tel Aviv-Jaffa, IL; Doha, QA; Jedda, SA; Riyadh, SA; Cape Town, ZA; Abu Dhabi, AE; Dubai, AE. North America: Montreal, CA; Toronto, CA; Vancouver, CA; Mexico City, MX; Atlanta, US; Boston, US; Chicago, US; Dallas-Fort Worth, US; Detroit, US; Houston, US; Los Angeles, US; Miami, US; Minneapolis-Saint Paul, US; New York, US; Philadelphia, US; Phoenix, US; San Diego, US; San Francisco, US; Seattle, US; Washington, US. South America: Buenos Aires, AR; Rio de Janeiro, BR; Sao Paulo, BR; Santiago de Chile, CL; Bogota, CO; Lima, PE. Among the selected kitchen stores mentioned: 1000 Kuchnie, Al Meera Abu Dhabi, Architecs and Designers Bulding NY, Arredo 3 Mutfak, Binacci, Boffi Berlin, Bulthaup Berlin, Bulthaup Toronto, Bunnings, Cabinets and Beyond, Cabinets To Go, Casa Shopping, Chanintr Living, Da Vinci, Diacocina Madrid, Easy Home Beijing, Eggo, Eurokitchens, German Kitchen Center, Godrej Interio, Gruppo Cucine, HTH, International Market Center, Kaza Planejados, KIC ChongQing, Kitchen&Bath Shop, Kitchen Design Centre, Kitchen Innovation World Shanghai, Kitchen Works LA, Kuchnie Nolte, Kvik, La Cornue, Laura Ashley, Leicht Lisboa,Poggenpohl St Albans, Majestic Kitchens, Marquardt, Miacucina San Diego, Miami Design District, Modular Kitchen Delhi, Oppein Living, Panasonic Living Center, Poggenpohl Boston, Poliform Lyon, Porcelanosa Kitchen, Puustelli,ViA Hong Kong, Scavolini Detroit, Semel Kitchens, Shine Kitchen, Signature Interior, Stopino, theMart Chicago, TKI Amsterdam, Tulp Kitchens, Wuerfel Kuche Bangalore, Zahrani Kitchens. Among the kitchen brands mentioned: Al Meera Kitchens Arc Linea, Bertch, Bilotta, Boffi, Bulthaup, Crystal, Dada, De Wils, Dellanno, Dura Supreme, Elmwood, Eggersmann, Golden Home, Haecker, Hans Krug, Hanssem, Leicht, Lube, Marya, Mobalpa, Nobilia, Nolte, Oppein, Plain&Fancy, Poggenpohl, Poliform, Rutt, Scavolini, Siematic, Signature, Snaidero, Todeschini, Valcucine, Veneta Cucine, Wood Mode, WW Wood Products. Major Local markets monitored: Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas-Fort Worth, Detroit, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis-Saint Paul, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Washington. (*) Our economic and demographic indicator database is dated January 2020, therefore macroeconomic and sectorial estimations and forecasts were made before that date. The world has changed dramatically in the three months as the world has been put in a Great Lockdown. According to the IMF, 'the magnitude and speed of collapse in activity that has followed is unlike anything experienced in our lifetimes'. Up to the publication date of this report updates on forecasts up to 2023 havent be released.
    JEL: L11 L22 L68 L81
    Date: 2021–07
  17. By: Cole, Stephen J. (Department of Economics Marquette University); Huh, Sungjun (Department of Economics Marquette University)
    Abstract: Housing markets are closely related to monetary policy. This paper studies the link between housing frictions and the effectiveness of forward guidance. A housing collateral constraint and forward guidance shocks are incorporated into a standard medium-scale New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. Our main results produce a number of important implications. First, financial frictions emanating from the housing market dampen the effectiveness of forward guidance on the economy. Second, forward guidance has asymmetric effects on the welfare of lenders and borrowers when housing frictions increase. Housing frictions also attenuate the effect of forward guidance at the zero lower bound. Finally, this article provides a solution to "forward guidance puzzle" of Del Negro et al. (2012). Thus, policymakers should consider housing frictions when examining the effects of forward guidance on the economy.
    Keywords: forward guidance, financial frictions, housing collateral, zero lower ground
    JEL: E32 E44 E52 R21
    Date: 2021–09
  18. By: Jonathan Levine (University of Michigan)
    Abstract: This paper explores conceptual barriers to shifting the foundation of transport planning from mobility to accessibility. These barriers include an implicit belief that accessibility must bring other benefits to be of value, the idea that individuals’ failure to minimise costs in their transport choices somehow challenges the derived nature of transport demand; and a lack of techniques for project-level accessibility analysis. The paper also presents a technique for overcoming the latter barrier.
    Date: 2020–11–19
  19. By: Pia Schilling; Steven Stillman
    Abstract: Exploiting the random allocation of asylum seekers to different locations in Germany, we study the impact of right-wing voting on refugees’ integration. We find that in municipalities with more voting for the right-wing AfD, refugees have worse economic and social integration. These impacts are largest for groups targeted by AfD campaigns and refugees are also more likely to suffer from harassment and right-wing attacks in areas with greater AfD support. Positive interactions with locals are also less likely in these areas.
    Keywords: immigrants’ integration, refugees, hostile attitudes, voting behaviour
    JEL: J15 J61 Z13
    Date: 2021
  20. By: Kosfeld, Reinhold; Mitze, Timo; Rode, Johannes; Wälde, Klaus
    Abstract: The paper studies the containment effects of public health measures to curb the spread of Covid-19 during the first wave of the pandemic in spring 2020 in Germany. To identify the effects of six compound sets of public health measures, we employ a spatial difference-in-differences approach. We find that contact restrictions, mandatory wearing of face masks and closure of schools substantially contributed to flattening the infection curve. The significance of the impact of restaurant closure does not prove to be robust. No incremental effect is evidenced for closure of establishments and the shutdown of non-essential retail stores.
    Date: 2021–04–13
  21. By: Alessio Muscillo; Simona Re; Sergio Gambacorta; Giuseppe Ferrara; Nicola Tagliafierro; Emiliano Borello; Alessandro Rubino; Angelo Facchini
    Abstract: We present a circularity transition index based on open data principles and circularity of energy, material, and information. The aim of the Circular City Index is to provide data and a succinct measurement of the attributes related to municipalities performances that can support the definition of green policies at national and local level. We have identified a set of key performance indicators, defined at municipality level, measuring factors that, directly and indirectly, could influence circularity and green transition, with a focus on the green new deal vision embraced by the European Union. The CCI is tested on a open dataset that collects data covering 100% of the Italian municipalities (7,904). Our results show that the computation of the CCI on a large sample leads to a normal distribution of the index, suggesting disparities both under the territorial point of view and under the point of view of city size. Results provide useful information to practitioner, policy maker and experts from academia alike, to define effective tools able to underpin a careful planning of investments supported by the national recovery and resilience plan recently issued by the Italian government. This may be particularly useful to enhance enabling factors of the green transition that may differ across territories, helping policymakers to promote a smooth and fair transition by fostering the preparedness of municipalities in addressing the challenge.
    Date: 2021–09
  22. By: Jean-Marie Grether; Benjamin Tissot-Daguette
    Abstract: Using novel data on value added in Switzerland we propose to use a growth rate decomposition technique, in the spirit of shift-share analysis, to analyze the patterns of regional competitiveness over the 2011-2015 period. The growth differential of a region (or canton) depends on four terms, three structural effects and one competitive effect. The competitive effect turns out to be the dominant force at a high level of aggregation. An interesting pattern of structural effects unveils when working at a lower level of aggregation, allowing for identification of the leaders and laggers across regions and sectors.
    Keywords: firm-level, productivity, shift-share, structural and competitive effects, Switzerland.
    JEL: R11 R32
    Date: 2021–09
  23. By: Taletha M. Derrington; Alison Huang; Joseph P. Ferrie
    Abstract: We examine the effects WWII Lanham Act Nursery Schools (LNS) on high school and young adult educational and labor outcomes of participants in the landmark Project Talent (PT) study. All PT places that received funding for LNS schools and all PT places that did not were identified by examining program records and contemporaneous newspaper accounts. Focusing on students who in 1960 attended high school in the same city or town where they were born, we estimate intent to treat effects of access to LNS preschool on high school academic and social emotional outcomes and on educational attainment and labor outcomes at five and eleven years following high school graduation. Preschool boosts high school academic outcomes for men and (in at least one specification) income 11 years after high school graduation. For women, preschool exposure had a negative effect on some social emotional outcomes in high school. We found no or inconsistent effects for other outcomes. The Lanham experience demonstrates that even with the less sophisticated understanding of child development of the early 1940s, the first universal, government-funded preschool program had positive impacts on boys’ outcomes at least through high school. Given today’s expanded understanding of child development and focus on the quality of early care and education programming, these findings provide some optimism as communities, states, and the federal government contemplate expanding funding for today’s early learning environments.
    JEL: I21 I26 J13 N32
    Date: 2021–09
  24. By: Murat Guray Kirdar (Department of Economics, Boğaziçi University); Ismet Koc (Institute of Population Studies, Hacettepe University); Meltem Dayıoglu (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University)
    Abstract: Although school integration of the children of economic migrants in developed countries is well-studied in the literature, little evidence based on large scale representative data exists on the school integration of refugee children—many of whom live in low- or middle-income countries. This study focuses on Syrian refugee children in Turkey and examines the underlying causes of the native-refugee differences in school enrollment. We also analyze employment and marriage outcomes, as they are potentially jointly determined with schooling. For this purpose, we use the 2018 Turkish Demographic and Health Survey, which includes a representative sample of Syrian refugee households. We find that once a rich set of socioeconomic variables are accounted for, the native-refugee gap in school enrollment drops by half for boys and two-thirds for girls, but the gap persists for both genders. However, once we restrict the sample to refugees who arrive in Turkey at or before age 8 and account for the socioeconomic differences, the native-refugee gap completely vanishes both for boys and girls. In one outcome—in never attending school—the native-refugee gap persists even for children who arrive before age 8. Data for Syrians from the pre-war period suggest that this might be an “ethnic capital” that they bring with them from Syria. Finally, we find that the timing of boys’ school drop-out coincides with their entry into the labor market, whereas girls’ drop-out mostly takes place earlier than their marriage.
    Keywords: refugees; education; school enrollment; integration; child labor; marriage; Turkey.
    JEL: I21 I28 O15
    Date: 2021–09
  25. By: Michelle Norris (Geary Institute for Public Policy, University College Dublin); Eoin O'Sullivan (Department of Social Work and Social Policy, Trinity College Dublin); Anna Visser (Department of Children, Equality, Disability, Integration and Youth)
    Abstract: The provision of social housing and other accommodation for Travellers, such as caravan halting sites, is one of the most intractable, policy challenges in Ireland. Accommodation needs amongst this disadvantaged, nomadic community have remained high for decades. This reflects a persistent but complex 'implementation deficit' as evidenced by local government's failure to meet the accommodation provision targets set by central government and contradictions between the type of accommodation delivered and policy-makers' plans. To illuminate the factors which have shaped these outcomes, this article draws on Matland's (1995) ideas on the influence of conflict and ambiguity on policy implementation. It reveals that, despite unambiguous national policy objectives, policy implementation mechanisms have remained ambiguous. This isn't surprising because Traveller accommodation proposals are often vociferously and successfully opposed by neighbouring residents. This opposition has shaped the scale and nature of the Traveller accommodation policy implementation deficit. This deficit also means that the relatively progressive objectives of Traveller accommodation policy remain largely symbolic.
    Keywords: Traveller accommodation, nomadism, policy implementation, policy conflict.
    Date: 2021–03–11
  26. By: Olga Bilyk; Ken Chow; Yang Xu
    Abstract: We study the relationship between characteristics of new mortgages and borrowers’ financial stress in Canada’s energy-intensive regions following the 2014 collapse in oil prices. We find that borrowers with limited home equity were more likely to have difficulty repaying debt.
    Keywords: Credit and credit aggregates; Econometric and statistical methods; Financial stability; Housing
    JEL: C25 D14 G51 R21
    Date: 2021–09
  27. By: Hugo d'Assenza-David (Sciences Po - Sciences Po)
    Date: 2021–09–06
  28. By: F. Marta L. Di Lascio (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Italy); Andrea Menapace (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Italy); Roberta Pappadà (University of Trieste, Italy)
    Abstract: In this paper, we explore the usefulness of the Ali-Mikhail-Haq copula in defining a new dissimilarity measure to cluster variables in a hierarchical framework. We show that our proposal is particularly sensitive to small dissimilarities based on tiny differences in the dependence level. Therefore, the proposed measure is able to better distinguish between objects with low dissimilarity than classic rank-based dissimilarity measures. Moreover, our proposal is defined in a spatial version that is able to take into account the spatial location of the compared objects. We investigate the proposed measure through Monte Carlo studies and compare it with the corresponding spatial Kendall's correlation-based dissimilarity measure. Furthermore, we develop a clustering methodology to analyze panel data for district heating demand with the aim of finding clusters of buildings homogeneous with respect to their main characteristics, such as energy efficiency and heating surface.
    Keywords: Ali-Mikhail-Haq copula, Cluster analysis, District heating demand, Panel data, Spatial dissimilarity.
    JEL: C10 C33 C38
    Date: 2021–09
  29. By: Vu, Tien Manh; Yamada, Hiroyuki
    Abstract: We investigated the long-term effects of birthplace favoritism by top-ranking politicians on the quality of education in Vietnam. We used over 1 million test scores from the 2009 and 2014 Vietnamese national university entrance examinations. We examined both the different timing of political terms and the total years of birthplace favoritism. Using the school fixed effects, we found that birthplace favoritism did not have any significant impacts, regardless of the timing and duration of such favoritism. The results also suggest that national entrance examinations were unaffected by birthplace favoritism up to 2014.
    Keywords: Favoritism; Test scores; Education; Regional favoritism; Vietnam
    JEL: H75 I21 I28
    Date: 2021–09
  30. By: Carole Gresse (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres); Hugo Marin (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres)
    Abstract: Using data from a peer-to-business crowdlending platform that exploits an auction-driven system to fund corporate loans, we show that non-professional investors are subject to a geographical-proximity bias. They are more likely to win the auctions of borrowers located close to their place of residence notwithstanding that they are not better informed about their creditworthiness. Unexpectedly, this behavioral bias distorts the loan rate discovery processby increasing the cost of funding for borrowers. This adverse effect results from the greaterability of local investors to submit winning bids at an early stage. This ability is gained from their experience in previous auctions of geographically close borrowers. This suggests that the familiarity feeling stemming from geographical closeness strengthens investor attention,and thereby improves lenders' knowledge about the dynamics of the order flow in local borrowers' auctions.
    Keywords: peer-to-business crowdlending,crowdfunding,behavioral finance,loan performance,price discovery process
    Date: 2021–09–08
  31. By: Giang Nguyen (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University 1-6-1 Nishi-Waseda, Shinjuku, Tokyo 169-8050, Japan); Hannah Nguyen (Department of Banking and Finance, Monash University Caulfield East, Victoria 3145, Australia); Hung Pham (Department of Banking and Finance, Monash University Caulfield East, Victoria 3145, Australia)
    Abstract: Using a comprehensive dataset of social network ties between U.S. counties, we document higher announcement returns for acquirers that are more socially proximate to their targets. Our findings are robust to the inclusion of geographical proximity and withstand endogeneity concerns. Consistent with the information asymmetry hypothesis, we show that the effect of social connectedness is more pronounced when targets have high information opacity, as proxied by target status, analyst coverage, bid–ask spreads, R&D, and high-tech classifications. In addition, social connectedness lowers advisory fees, reduces deal premiums, and yields better acquirer long-term performance.
    Keywords: Social connectedness; merger and acquisition; information asymmetry
    Date: 2021–09
  32. By: Marisa Putnam; Liza Rodler
    Abstract: This case study describes New Moms, a nonprofit organization serving the west side of Chicago and its suburbs that provides job training, housing, and family support programs to pregnant and parenting young women and their children. This case study is a part of the State TANF Case Studies project.
    Keywords: Employment and training, wraparound supports, TANF, case studies, temporary assistance to needy families, New Moms
  33. By: Karst Guers (University of Twente)
    Abstract: This paper describes the different approaches to measuring accessibility benefits and the limitations of their application in practice. It argues that a broader perspective on accessibility measurement and valuation beyond the current focus on time savings will improve transport appraisal. Notably the better utilisation of land use and transport interaction models will benefit transport investment appraisal.
    Date: 2020–11–19
  34. By: Michelangeli, Valentina; Peydró, José-Luis; Sette, Enrico
    Abstract: We identify the relative importance for lending of borrower (demand) versus bank (supply) factors. We submit thousands of fictitious mortgage applications, changing one borrower-level factor at time, to the major Italian online mortgage platform. Each application goes to all banks. We find that borrower and bank factors are equally strong in causing and explaining loan acceptance. For pricing, borrower factors are instead stronger. Moreover, banks supplying less credit accept riskier borrowers. Exploiting the administrative credit register, we show borrower-lender assortative matching, and that the bank-level strength measure, estimated on the experimental data, determines credit supply and risk-taking to real firms.
    Keywords: credit,banks,mortgages,SMEs,risk-taking
    JEL: G21 G51 E51
    Date: 2021
  35. By: Jack Mountjoy; Brent R. Hickman
    Abstract: Students who attend different colleges in the U.S. end up with vastly different economic outcomes. We study the role of relative value-added across colleges within student choice sets in producing these outcome disparities. Linking high school, college, and earnings registries spanning the state of Texas, we identify relative college value-added by comparing the outcomes of students who apply to and are admitted by the same set of institutions, as this approach strikingly balances observable student potential across college treatments and renders our extensive set of covariates irrelevant as controls. Methodologically, we develop a framework for identifying and interpreting value-added under varying assumptions about match effects and sorting gains. Empirically, we estimate a relatively tight, though non-degenerate, distribution of relative value-added across the wide diversity of Texas public universities. Selectivity poorly predicts value-added within student choice sets, with only a fleeting selectivity earnings premium fading to zero after a few years in the labor market. Non-peer college inputs like instructional spending more strongly predict value-added, especially conditional on selectivity. Colleges that boost BA completion, especially in STEM majors, also tend to boost earnings. Finally, we probe the potential for (mis)match effects by allowing value-added schedules to vary by student characteristics.
    JEL: C21 H75 I23 I24 I26 J24 J31 J62
    Date: 2021–09
  36. By: Carlo Cambini (Department of Production and Management Engineering, Politecnico di Torino, Italy); Lorien Sabatino (Department of Production and Management Engineering, Politecnico di Torino, Italy); Sarah Zaccagni (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Denmark)
    Abstract: In this paper, we study the impact of ultra-fast broadband (UBB) access on student performance. These networks are based on optical fiber, allowing significantly higher speed compared to traditional copper-line connections. Our empirical analysis leverages on a unique dataset that combines information on broadband diffusion with data on student performance in 2nd, 5th, and 8th grade for the period 2012-2017. We exploit the staggered roll-out of UBB, starting from 2015. Through an event study approach, we find evidence of endogeneity between student performance and broadband diffusion. We deal with this issue through an instrumental variable approach that exploits plausibly exogenous variation in the diffusion of the essential UBB input. Our results suggest that ultra-fast connections significantly decrease students’ performance in Mathematics and Italian language in 8th grade. Instead, we do not find any significant effect in 2nd and 5th grade. Male students from low-educated parental backgrounds are those more adversely affected, especially if they attend schools with a low IT usage.
    Keywords: ultra-fast broadband, internet, student performance, instrumental variables
    JEL: C23 C26 I21 I28 J24
    Date: 2021–09–16
  37. By: Dimitra Kontana (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia); Stilianos Fountas (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia)
    Abstract: This study investigates the long-run and short-run relationship between consumption, income, financial and housing wealth, and a long-term interest rate for the 50 US states. Using an updated set of quarterly data from 1975 to 2018, we perform panel cointegration analysis allowing for cross-sectional dependence. We obtain the following results. First, there is strong evidence for cointegration among consumption and its determinants. Second, estimates of the housing wealth and financial wealth elasticity of consumption range from 0.072 to 0.115 and 0.044 to 0.080, respectively. Finally, Granger causality tests show that there is a bidirectional short-term causality between per capita consumpti on, income, and financial wealth in the short run and between all the variables in the long run.
    Keywords: Consumption; Financial Wealth; Housing Wealth; Wealth effects; 10-year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate; Panel Cointegration; Granger Causality.
    JEL: E21 E44 R31
    Date: 2021–09
  38. By: Eric Miller (University of Toronto)
    Abstract: This paper discusses the current state of transport accessibility measurement. It demonstrates that all commonly used measures are special cases of a generic accessibility model that conforms to a few fundamental axioms. The paper also shows that accessibility measures are fundamentally tied to travel behaviour. These ties should be explicitly recognised and exploited to construct theoretically defensible and practically useful measures.
    Date: 2020–11–23
  39. By: Bruno, Randolph L.; Crescenzi, Riccardo; Estrin, Saul; Petralia, Sergio
    Abstract: We characterise the knowledge production process whereby the inventive capabilities of the firm generate innovation output in highly inventive multinational enterprises (MNEs). We explore the sensitivity of this relationship to the strength of intellectual property rights (IPR) protection across the MNEs R&D subsidiaries. We argue that MNE innovative performance will be enhanced when the firm’s R&D activities are based in locations where IPR protection is stronger. Moreover, when considering the internal geography of the MNEs R&D activities, innovation performance depends on the distance between the home and host country IPR regime. Thus, innovation performance is worse as the difference between home and host IPR regimes increases. Finally, we explore asymmetries in this relationship, in particular that the deterioration is more marked when MNEs locate their R&D activities in host economies with IPR protection significantly less strict than in their home country. We test these ideas using a unique new dataset about the most innovative MNEs in the world, an unbalanced panel of around 900 MNEs observed for the period 2004 to 2013 and find strong support for all our hypotheses.
    Keywords: multinationals; innovation; IPR protection; institutional distance; patents; inventive capabilities; 639633-MASSIVE-ERC-2014-STG; 822781-GROWINPRO; Internal OA fund
    JEL: R14 J01 L81
    Date: 2021–07–19
  40. By: Shadrin Artem (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The crisis phenomena in the global and Russian economy directly related to the introduction of quarantine measures in 2020, led to the deficit of the consolidated regional budget. At end-2020, the consolidated regional budget and the budgets of territorial state extra-budgetary funds ran a deficit of Rb667.4 bn, or 0.63% of GDP. To compare, in 2019 the consolidated regional budget and the budgets of territorial state extra-budgetary funds ran a surplus of Rb17.4 bn, or 0.02% of GDP.
    Keywords: Russian economy, regional and municipal finances, loan market, debt market
    JEL: H71 H72 H74 H76
    Date: 2021
  41. By: Borzykh Ksenia (RANEPA); Ponomarev Yuri (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The transportation industry is not only a key sector of the economy, but also its indispensable glue. The development of transport infrastructure is a major factor of economic growth and a key driver of exit from the economic crisis. In the past few years, the transportation industry demonstrated upturn dynamic both in terms of the development of infrastructure and the volumes of transportation. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic and the relevant restrictions aimed at fighting the spread thereof led to substantial changes in the supply and demand situation on numerous markets, not only affecting directly freight and passenger traffic, but also making a sizable portion of the population revise their views on the need and required parameters of the infrastructure (not only transport infrastructure, but also social-information and communication ones).
    Keywords: Russian economy, transportation industry, foreign trade, customs regulation
    JEL: L91 L92 L93 L99
    Date: 2021
  42. By: Jo-Ann Suchard (UNSW Business School, University of New South Wales Sydney.); Giang Nguyen (School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University.); Yuelin Wang (School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University.)
    Abstract: Using comprehensive social capital data of U.S. counties from the Social Capital Project, we show evidence that the county-level social capital where the acquirer is located is positively related to the acquirer’s announcement returns. This finding withstands alternative model specifications and remains robust to endogeneity concerns. We also document that social capital has a more pronounced effect on the acquirer’s announcement returns when the supermajority to approve a merger, acquirer size, the deal size, and the ratio of stock payment are larger and the percentage of blockholder ownership is smaller. Additionally, we find that social capital creates more synergies, enhances acquirers’ long-term performance, and shortens deal completion duration. Overall, our results support the shareholder value maximization view that social capital constrains managerial opportunistic and selfserving behaviors, which leads to better acquisition outcomes.
    Keywords: Social Social Capital, Merger and Acquisition, Shareholder Value Maximization.
    JEL: G34 Z13
    Date: 2021–09
  43. By: Dike Chukwudi Henry
    Abstract: We study properties of collective action problems bounded by minimal contributions as well as endowment and variable contributions are neighbourhood dependent. We relate nearness to non-interior agents and its implication for interior contribution. Here, we see the aspects of node distance to non-interior agents which have implications for interior agents. Endowments may be redistributed among agents. We highlight strict conditions for budget balanced transfers for which neighbourhood contributions and individual residual consumption’s are invariant. Agents may or may not be concerned about neighbourhood outcomes. We find that welfare is self correcting and neither cases are relevant to the overall welfare impact of neutral transfers.
    Keywords: Centrality; Contagion; Neutrality; Peer Effect
    JEL: C72 D85 H41
    Date: 2021–06
  44. By: Bruno S. Frey; Andre Briviba
    Abstract: This paper presents a proposal to deal with cultural overtourism causing substantial negative effects. They burden the local population, tourists, and the natural environment by overcrowding, vandalism, and pollution. While at present tourism is suppressed by governments due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it will likely become a major issue again in the future. Our proposal allows us to think about the way cultural tourism should be organized in the future and how to mitigate the negative externalities affecting cultural heritage as well as the local population and the natural environment. As an innovation to overcome these problems, the heavily visited historical sites are to be replicated in a suitable nearby location. Advanced digital technology such as augmented and virtual reality, holograms, and digital twins are to be used to make the cultural sites attractive to all sorts of tourists.
    Keywords: Overtourism; innovation; Revived Original; copy; digital technology
    JEL: P48 Z10 Z18 Z38 Z30
    Date: 2021–09
  45. By: Karel Martens (Technion, Israel Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: This paper discusses two variants of the accessibility paradigm for transport planning. The extensive paradigm aims to radically overhaul transport planning to incorporate issues of environmental quality, urban sprawl, safety and health. Its adoption is unlikely in the medium term and raises questions about the role of the transport planner. The limited paradigm calls for transport planning to adopt accessibility indicators in place of mobility indicators. However this will not meet the underlying goals of the accessibility critique. A change in the focus of transport planning is needed from the functioning of transport networks to the service that differently placed people receive from the transport system.
    Date: 2020–11–19
  46. By: Hintermann, Beat (University of Basel); Schoeman, Beaumont (University of Basel); Molloy, Joseph; Schatzmann, Thomas; Tchervenkov, Christopher; Axhausen, Kay W.
    Abstract: We study the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated government measures on individual mobility choices in Switzerland. Our data is based on over 1,000 people for which we observe all trips during eight weeks before the pandemic and again for up to 6 months after its onset. We find an overall reduction of travel distances by 60 percent, followed by a gradual recovery during the subsequent reopening of the economy. Whereas driving distances have almost completely recovered, public transport remains under-used. The introduction of a requirement to wear a mask in public transport had no measurable impact on ridership. We study the heterogeneity of the individual travel response to the pandemic and find that it varies along socio-economic dimensions such as education and household size, with mobility tool ownership, and with personal values and lifestyles.
    Keywords: COVID-19; mobility; tracking; causal forest; PPML
    JEL: H12 H40 I18 R41 R48
    Date: 2021–09–15
  47. By: Oswald, David; Hao, Peng; Williams, Nigel; Barth, Matthew
    Abstract: As part of the City of Riverside’s Smart-City initiative, UC Riverside researchers have developed an Innovation Corridor testbed for enabling shared electric connected and automated transportation research. This Innovation Corridor testbed is located in Riverside California, and consists of a six-mile section of University Avenue between the UC Riverside campus and downtown Riverside. The testbed supports various transportation modes including passenger vehicles, trucks, transit (e.g., RTA buses), bicycles, and various forms of micro-mobility. This corridor is continuously being instrumented with various infrastructure equipment to support research in shared electric connected and automated transportation. Specifically for this project, the corridor has been equipped with roadside communications equipment and advanced traffic signal controllers at several key intersections, to help improve safety, mobility and environmental sustainability. With this initial instrumentation, we have then conducted connected vehicle experimentation that utilize the signal phase and timing (SPaT) data from these intersections to smooth traffic flow and reduce emissions. For this Innovation Corridor, a high-fidelity simulation environment was also developed to evaluate potential connected vehicle strategies. A variety of Eco-Approach and Departure (EAD) connected vehicle experiments have been conducted and evaluated, both in simulation and in the real-world. As part of the simulation ecosystem, we have compared the energy and emissions modeling results to see which best matches the real-world measurements. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Connected and automated vehicles, traffic modeling, eco-approach and departure
    Date: 2021–09–01
  48. By: Gianluca Orefice; Hillel Rapoport; Gianluca Santoni
    Abstract: How does immigration affect export performance? To answer this question we propose a unified empirical framework allowing to disentangle various mechanisms such as the role of networks in reducing bilateral transaction costs as well as productivity shifts arising from migration-induced knowledge diffusion and increased workforce diversity. While we find evidence supporting all three channels (at both the intensive and the extensive margins of trade), our framework allows to gauge their relative importance. We then focus on diversity and find stronger results in sectors characterized by more complex production processes and more intense teamwork cooperation. This is consistent with theories linking the distribution of skills to the comparative advantage of nations. The results are robust to using a theoretically-grounded IV approach combining three variations on the shift share methodology.
    Keywords: international trade, birthplace diversity, migration, productivity
    JEL: F14 F16 F22 O47
    Date: 2021
  49. By: Lin William Cong; Ke Tang; Bing Wang; Jingyuan Wang
    Abstract: We build a deep-learning-based SEIR-AIM model integrating the classical Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed epidemiology model with forecast modules of infection, community mobility, and unemployment. Through linking Google's multi-dimensional mobility index to economic activities, public health status, and mitigation policies, our AI-assisted model captures the populace's endogenous response to economic incentives and health risks. In addition to being an effective predictive tool, our analyses reveal that the long-term effective reproduction number of COVID-19 equilibrates around one before mass vaccination using data from the United States. We identify a "policy frontier" and identify reopening schools and workplaces to be the most effective. We also quantify protestors' employment-value-equivalence of the Black Lives Matter movement and find that its public health impact to be negligible.
    Date: 2021–09
  50. By: Lindsay Ochoa; Pamela Holcomb
    Abstract: This case study describes the Community Action Organization of Scioto County, a community hub for numerous services designed for people from low-income households, and focuses particularly on CAO’s employment and workforce services. This case study is a part of the State TANF Case Studies project.
    Keywords: Employment and training, wraparound supports, Community Action Organization of Scioto County, case studies, temporary assistance to needy families, CAO
  51. By: Eskelinen, Maria
    Abstract: In this paper I develop a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which features three different types of representative agents (THRANK): the poor hand-to-mouth, the wealthy hand-to-mouth and the non-hand-to mouth households. Compared to a full-scale HANK model, this model is easier to compute while reproducing many of the same monetary policy shock transmission channels. I show that monetary policy transmission takes place through a redistribution channel, as emphasised by Auclert (2019). In particular, the effects of a monetary policy shock are amplified as resources are redistributed from high-MPC households to low-MPC households. Monetary policy therefore becomes more effective compared to models with homogeneous MPC rates. Consumption inequality is countercyclical in this setting and a high degree of leverage amplifies the redistribution channel. These findings have important implications for understanding the effects of both monetary and macroprudential policy. JEL Classification: D31, E12, E21, E43, E52
    Keywords: household heterogeneity, housing market, inequality, monetary policy
    Date: 2021–09
  52. By: Minho Kim; Munseob Lee; Yongseok Shin
    Abstract: Does industrial policy work? This is a subject of long-standing debates among economists and policymakers. Using newly digitized microdata, we evaluate the Korean government's policy that promoted heavy and chemical industries between 1973 and 1979 by cutting taxes and building new industrial complexes for them. We show that output, input use, and labor productivity of the targeted industries and regions grew significantly faster than those of non-targeted ones. While the plant-level total factor productivity also grew faster in targeted industries and regions, the misallocation of resources within them got significantly worse, especially among the entrants, so that the total factor productivity at the industry-region level did not increase relative to the non-targeted industries and regions. In addition, we provide new evidence on how industrial policy reshapes the economy: (i) The establishment size distribution of targeted industries and regions shifted to the right with thicker tails due to the entry of large establishments and (ii) the targeted industries became more important in the economy's input-output structure in the sense that their output multipliers increased significantly more.
    JEL: E24 O14 O25 O53
    Date: 2021–09
  53. By: Matej Bajgar (Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute); Chiara Criscuolo (OECD); Jonathan Timmis (The World Bank)
    Abstract: This paper presents new evidence on the growing scale of big businesses in the United States, Japan, and Europe. It finds broad evidence of rising industry concentration across the majority of countries and sectors over the period 2002 to 2014. Rising concentration is strongly associated with intensive investment in intangibles, particularly innovative assets, software, and data. This relationship appears to be stronger in more globalised and digital-intensive industries. The results are consistent with intangibles disproportionately benefiting large firms and enabling them to scale up and increase market shares. We find nuanced implications of these new business models for competition – rising markups and reduced churning amongst the top firms, but falling industry prices.
    Keywords: Competition, Industry and entrepreneurship, Innovation
    JEL: E22 L1 L25
    Date: 2021–09–22
  54. By: Jonas Eliasson (University of Linköping)
    Abstract: This paper asks whether transport policy assessments should use accessibility benefits as a key measure instead of user benefits. It argues that both measures are equivalent if accessibility measures are based on transport users’ own preferences and if the same principle is used to aggregate benefits. The paper also addresses how distributional questions can be addressed within this approach.
    Date: 2020–11–12
  55. By: Hugo Gimbert; Claire Mathieu; Simon Mauras
    Abstract: School choice is the two-sided matching market where students (on one side) are to be matched with schools (on the other side) based on their mutual preferences. The classical algorithm to solve this problem is the celebrated deferred acceptance procedure, proposed by Gale and Shapley. After both sides have revealed their mutual preferences, the algorithm computes an optimal stable matching. Most often in practice, notably when the process is implemented by a national clearinghouse and thousands of schools enter the market, there is a quota on the number of applications that a student can submit: students have to perform a partial revelation of their preferences, based on partial information on the market. We model this situation by drawing each student type from a publicly known distribution and study Nash equilibria of the corresponding Bayesian game. We focus on symmetric equilibria, in which all students play the same strategy. We show existence of these equilibria in the general case, and provide two algorithms to compute such equilibria under additional assumptions, including the case where schools have identical preferences over students.
    Date: 2021–09
  56. By: Christoph Görtz; Danny McGowan; Mallory Yeromonahos
    Abstract: We study how furlough affects household financial distress during the COVID-19 pandemic. Furlough increases the probability of late housing and bill payments by 30% and 9%, respectively. The effects exist for individuals who rent their home, but not mortgagees who can mitigate financial distress by reducing expenditure during furlough by deferring mortgage payments though the Mortgage Holiday Scheme. Furloughed individuals significantly reduce expenditure and spend their savings to offset furlough-induced income reductions. This creates wealth inequality but lowers the probability a furloughed worker experiences financial distress after returning to work. Estimates show an 80% government contribution to furloughed workers’ wages minimizes the incidence of financial distress at the lowest cost to taxpayers.
    Keywords: furlough, short-time work, Coronavirus job retention scheme, Covid-19 pandemic, financial distress, automatic stabilizers, inequality
    JEL: D14 D31 E24 G51 H24
    Date: 2021
  57. By: Katie Eddins; Kristen Joyce
    Abstract: This case study describes the Community Caring Collaborative, a network of community organizations and individuals focused on improving the lives of people and families with low incomes in Washington County, Maine. This case study is a part of the State TANF Case Studies project.
    Keywords: Employment and training, wraparound supports, TANF, case studies, temporary assistance to needy families, Community Caring Collaborative
  58. By: Riley Webster; Mary Farrell
    Abstract: This case study describes Business Link, a program providing job placement and subsidized employment opportunities to recipients of cash assistance and other people with low incomes who live in New York City, as part of the State TANF Case Studies project.
    Keywords: Employment and training, wraparound supports, TANF, case studies, temporary assistance to needy families, Business Link
  59. By: Nathan Ratledge; Gabriel Cadamuro; Brandon De la Cuesta; Matthieu Stigler; Marshall Burke
    Abstract: In many regions of the world, sparse data on key economic outcomes inhibits the development, targeting, and evaluation of public policy. We demonstrate how advancements in satellite imagery and machine learning can help ameliorate these data and inference challenges. In the context of an expansion of the electrical grid across Uganda, we show how a combination of satellite imagery and computer vision can be used to develop local-level livelihood measurements appropriate for inferring the causal impact of electricity access on livelihoods. We then show how ML-based inference techniques deliver more reliable estimates of the causal impact of electrification than traditional alternatives when applied to these data. We estimate that grid access improves village-level asset wealth in rural Uganda by 0.17 standard deviations, more than doubling the growth rate over our study period relative to untreated areas. Our results provide country-scale evidence on the impact of a key infrastructure investment, and provide a low-cost, generalizable approach to future policy evaluation in data sparse environments.
    JEL: O11 O18 Q01 Q4
    Date: 2021–09
  60. By: Anastasios Evgenidis (Newcastle University); Masashige Hamano (Waseda University); Wessel N. Vermeulen (Newcastle University)
    Abstract: We apply a Bayesian Panel VAR (BPVAR) and DSGE approach to study the regional effects of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. We disentangle the persistent fall in electricity supply following the Fukushima accident, from the immediate but more temporary production shock attributable to the natural disaster. Specifically, we estimate the contribution of the electricity fall on the regions economic recovery. First, we estimate a BPVAR with regional-level data on industrial production, prices, and trade, to obtain impulse responses of the natural disaster shock. We find that all regions experienced a strong and persistent decline in trade, and long-lasting disruptions on production. Inflationary pressures were strong but short-lived. Second, we present a DSGE model that can capture key observations from this empirical model, and provide theoretical impulse response functions that distinguish the immediate production shock, from the persistent electricity supply shock. Thirdly, in line with the predictions from the theoretical model, counterfactual analysis via conditional forecasts based on our BPVAR reveals that the Japanese regional economies, particularly the hit regions, did experience a loss in production and trade due to the persistent fall in electricity supply.
    Keywords: Social Choice natural disasters; Bayesian Panel VAR; DSGE; regional spill-overs; counterfactual analysis
    JEL: E3 E6 Q54 R1
    Date: 2021–06
  61. By: Jaller, Miguel; Pahwa, Anmol; Zhang, Michael
    Abstract: Freight is fundamental to economic growth, however, the trucks that haul this freight are pollution intensive, emitting criteria pollutants and greenhouse gases at high rates. The increasing volume and time-sensitivity of freight demand over the past decade has encouraged carriers to take the fastest route, which is often not an eco-friendly route. The increase in urban freight movement has thus brought along negative externalities such as congestion, emissions, and noise into cities. Alternative fuel technologies, such as electric trucks and hydrogen-fuel trucks can significantly reduce freight-related emissions. However, despite their lower operational costs, the high purchase cost and consequent longer payback periods compared to traditional vehicles, have resulted in slow adoption rates. Since the need to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and local criteria pollutants is immediate, accounting for externalities in carriers’ tactical and operational decision-making in the form of eco-routing can bring about desired reductions in emissions. The objectives of this work are to explore the possibilities and potential of eco-routing from the perspective of the carrier, in terms of cost-benefits and trade-offs, and from the perspective of the regulator, in terms of network-wide effects and policy initiatives that could encourage carriers to eco-route. This study evaluates reduction in global greenhouse emissions and local criteria pollutants, with a particular focus on direct impacts on disadvantaged communities in the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) region.
    Keywords: Engineering, Eco-routing, multi-criteria traffic assignment, origin-based traffic assignment, TAPAS, geofencing
    Date: 2021–09–01
  62. By: Baah-Boateng, William; Twum, Eric; Twumasi Baffour, Priscilla
    Abstract: The relevance of social networks sometimes referred to in Ghana as “whom you know” in the job acquisition process and its effect on labour market outcomes (wages, job satisfaction and job tenure) have been highlighted by a number of studies. Most of these studies have concentrated largely on monetary post-hire outcomes with limited research on non-pecuniary aspects. Using a cox proportional hazard model to analyse a survey of 150 formal sector workers in the services sector in Accra, the study observes that first, jobs acquired through the help of workers’ friends and relatives did not last long. The first jobs could be a stepping-stone for better jobs. This effect is however not statistically significant after controlling for individual and firm-level covariates. Conclusions are however made with caution due to the small sample size and the nature of respondents’ majority of whom are highly educated and relatively younger. Future research can explore further social networks and labour markets particularly in Africa where familiarity and identical ethnic bonds are visible and stronger.
    Keywords: Social networks, Job tenure, Cox proportional hazard model.
    JEL: J63
    Date: 2019–12
  63. By: Diether W. Beuermann; Nicolas L. Bottan; Bridget Hoffmann; C. Kirabo Jackson; Diego A. Vera Cossio
    Abstract: Canonical human capital theories posit that education, by enhancing worker skills, reduces the likelihood that a worker will be laid-off during times of economic change. Yet, this has not been demonstrated causally. We link administrative education records from 1987 through 2002 to nationally representative surveys conducted before and after COVID-19 onset in Barbados to explore the causal impact of improved education on job loss during this period. Using a regression discontinuity (RD) design, Beuermann and Jackson (2020) show that females (but not males) who score just above the admission threshold for more selective schools in Barbados attain more years of education than those that scored just below (essentially holding initial ability fixed). Here, in follow-up data, we show that these same females (but not males) are much less likely to have lost a job after the onset of COVID-19. We show that these effects are not driven by sectoral changes, or changes in labor supply. Because employers observe incumbent worker productivity, these patterns are inconsistent with pure education signalling, and suggest that education enhances worker skill.
    JEL: H0 I2 J0
    Date: 2021–09
  64. By: Nguyen, Chi-Hai; Ngo, Quang-Thanh; Pham, My-Duyen; Nguyen, Anh-Tuan; Huynh, Ngoc-Chuong
    Abstract: The current article examines the factors affecting economic linkages in the Southern Key Economic Zone of Vietnam, using a unique 5-year firm-level dataset with 5050 observations, using a unique 5-year firm-level dataset with 5050 observations, which is collected and merged from two data sources namely the Vietnam Technology and Competitiveness Survey and the Vietnam Annual Enterprise Survey in 2015-2019. Empirical results from estimating panel logit models based on different types of economic linkages such as (1) backward economic linkage with the domestic supplier, (2) backward economic linkage with a foreign supplier, (3) forward economic linkage with the domestic customer, and (4) forward economic linkage with a foreign customer reveal the importance of firm characteristics, technology transfer, and economic constraints that cause firms to conduct economic linkages across firm sizes and types of ownership. There is clear evidence for the determinants of economic linkages in manufacturing sectors by firm sizes, and by ownership in this analysis are concerned. To be specific, based on a regression analysis, employment, firm’s experience, technology transfer, and economic constraints stand out as the major drivers of economic linkage of various forms. In addition, results reveal several patterns of economic linkages such as domestic technology embodied economic linkage, local supply-chain technology embodied economic linkage, international/global supply-chain technology embodied economic linkage, local market-explored economic linkage, local market privilege, and foreign market privilege. Moreover, it is evidence that investments in basic infrastructure, transport infrastructure, communication infrastructure, removal of financing constraints, increase the labor supply, improvement of working skills of laborers have favored the growth of economic linkages. Our results initiate policy implications in the context that, apart from the firm’s and the industry sector’s characteristics, economic obstacles and the nature of technology transfer significantly influence the firm’s behaviors of conducting economic linkages in various firm sizes and types of ownership.
    Keywords: Economic linkages; vertical (or backward) linkages, horizontal (or forward) linkages, key economic zone; manufacturing firms; Vietnam
    JEL: M14 N14
    Date: 2021–03–01
    Abstract: The present study assesses the impact of urbanization on health outcomes in Indian states from the period 1971 to 2011. Urbanization is measured by the total urban population, percentage of urban population, and urban population growth rate. Health outcomes are measured by total fertility rates (TFR), crude birth rates (CBR), infant mortality rates (IMR), and life expectancy at birth (LEB). The fixed effect panel data models suggest that urbanization has a strong positive effect on health outcomes by reducing TFR, CBR, IMR, and by increasing LEB. Therefore, we suggest that the increasing urbanization in India is not only beneficial for higher economic growth and development but also for a higher level of health outcomes. The positive urban health outcomes may also be able to control the population growth in India. Therefore, urbanization is essential for holistic development in India.
    Keywords: Urbanization, total fertility rate, crude birth rate, infant mortality rate, India
    JEL: I1 I15 O1
    Date: 2021–01–10
  66. By: Jack Mountjoy
    Abstract: Two-year community colleges enroll nearly half of all first-time undergraduates in the United States, but to ambiguous effect: low persistence rates and the potential for diverting students from 4-year institutions cast ambiguity over 2-year colleges' contributions to upward mobility. This paper develops a new instrumental variables approach to identifying causal effects along multiple treatment margins, and applies it to linked education and earnings registries to disentangle the net impacts of 2-year college access into two competing causal margins: significant value-added for 2-year entrants who otherwise would not have attended college, but negative impacts on students diverted from immediate 4-year entry.
    JEL: C31 C36 I23 I24 I26 J24 J31
    Date: 2021–09

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