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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Stefano Colonnello (Department of Economics, University Of Venice CÃ Foscari; Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)); Roberto Marfè (Collegio Carlo Alberto, Turin); Qizhou Xiong (Saïd Business School, University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates heterogeneity in residential property yields using rental and sale listings from the largest German internet real estate platform. Equipped with property-level rent-to-price ratios obtained via matching properties for sale and for rent, we show that they strongly co-move with local factors, such as population age structure, industry structure, housing supply rigidities, and the liquidity and size of the housing market. Regional differences are particularly pronounced between globally relevant cities and other areas. However, a large fraction of the variation of rent-to-price ratios can be explained neither by local factors nor by an extensive array of property-specific observable features, pointing to the crucial role of idiosyncratic factors and within-city aggregation economies. We then create a pseudo-panel to examine the time-series dimension of house prices and show that the ability of expectations about discount and rent growth rates impounded in rent-to-price ratios to predict return and rent growth is statistically significant but of limited economic magnitude. |
| Keywords: | Housing, Rent-to-Price Ratio, Asset Pricing, Agglomeration Economies |
| JEL: | G12 G51 R31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2021:21&r= |
| By: | Alexander Daminger |
| Abstract: | This paper documents effects of a homeownership subsidy’s full repeal on the urban-rural residential location choice. First, I document the distribution of population across space for German labor market regions, using official NUTS-3 level population statistics. These labor market regions usually consist of a city (the urban core) and adjacent counties (the urban hinterlands) connected by commuter flows. Second, using IV-estimations in Difference-in-Differences and Triple-Differences frameworks, I exploit the 2005 repeal of Germany’s lump-sum direct homeownership subsidy “Eigenheimzulage” on changes in this distribution across space. The results indicate that repealing subsidies to homeownership reverses subsidy-induced population flows to the periphery and thus makes regions re-urbanize. Cities’ population gains derive in large parts from families with children and young residents of “building age”, that are no longer able to become homeowners outside the city gates without the subsidy’s support. |
| Keywords: | homeownership, housing subsidies, residential location choice, suburbanization |
| JEL: | H24 H30 H71 R23 R28 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bav:wpaper:211_daminger&r= |
| By: | Nuno Paixao |
| Abstract: | This note describes the procedure implemented in Giannone et al. (2020) to estimate housing supply elasticities for a large set of cities in Canada (Census Agglomerations) following a novel approach developed by Guren et al. (2021). In contrast with the popular elasticities estimated by Saiz (2010), which explores geographical and regulation heterogeneity across cities, the approach employed in this note exploits the systematic differential sensitivity of different cities to regional house-price cycles. |
| Keywords: | Housing |
| JEL: | R14 R31 R52 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocsan:21-21&r= |
| By: | Miles M. Finney |
| Abstract: | The immigrant population has grown dramatically in the US in the last fifty years. This study estimates housing demand among immigrants and discusses how immigration may be altering the structure of US urban areas. Immigrants are found to consume less housing per capita than native born US residents. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:21-23&r= |
| By: | Malginov Georgiy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sternik Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The past year in the Russian real estate market was unique. Some of the trends that emerged earlier have noticeably intensified (the decline in the developers’ profitability, the digitalization of technical and business processes, increase in size and consolidation of the industry as a response to the pre-bankruptcy state of a significant part of market participants, the expansion of state support for developers and its participation in the completion of many uncompleted projects). Other trends impact the spread of remote work format, migration from megacities, the systemic revival of the individual housing construction (IHC) segment as an alternative to apartment buildings, the easing of requirements for the level of income of borrowers and their reliability, the unprecedented expansion of state- subsidized mortgages - have only just begun to take shape. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, residential property prices, housing market, housing construction |
| JEL: | K11 H82 L32 L33 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2021-1133&r= |
| By: | Murray, Cameron (The University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | • There are more, bigger, better, dwellings per capita in Australia in 2021 compared to any point in history. • Multiple government inquiries at all levels over the past two decades have ostensibly sought to find the cause of house prices hidden in the pages of local zoning laws. • Dwellings are assets and are priced based on financial market conditions. • Density (dwellings per unit of land) and the rate of supply (new dwellings per period of time) are conceptually different but often confused in housing supply discussions. • This submission argues that market housing supply has exceeded household demand. State planning systems have flexibly accommodated new supply while regulating the location of different types of dwellings. • Compared to household incomes and rents, the cost of buying a home (measured by mortgage payments) in 2021 is historically cheap. This is due to lower interest rates and is why intercensal homeownership is expected to rise in 2021. However, asset price adjustments will mean that this situation will not persist. • Taxes on property are efficient and fair and do not add to housing costs but rather subtract from property values. • Affordable housing is cheap housing. Cheaper housing means lower rents and prices. Any “affordability” policy that reduces market prices will remove billions in landlord revenues each year, transferring that value to tenants, and trillions in housing asset values, with that value transferred to future buyers. • Fostering parallel non-market housing systems, just as public healthcare provides a non-market medical system, can be an effective way to improve housing affordability. • There are no local, international, or historical examples of planning reforms leading to cheaper housing. Indeed, a Productivity Commission review concluded “given the small size of net additions to housing in any year relative to the size of the stock, improvements to land release or planning approval procedures, while desirable, could not have greatly alleviated the price pressures of the past few years.” (p154) |
| Date: | 2021–09–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:prsy4&r= |
| By: | Bryan, Kevin; Guzman, Jorge |
| Abstract: | We use cross-state business registrations to track the geographic movement of startups with high growth potential. In their first five years, 6.6% percent of these startups move across state borders. Though startup births are concentrated geographically, hubs like Silicon Valley and Boston on net lose startups to entrepreneurial migration. A revealed preference approach nonparametrically identifies the average utility of cities to migrant founders. University towns and startup hubs have low relative utility. This pattern is due neither to vertical sorting nor industrial specialization. The higher-quality startups move to lower-tax, business-friendly cities, while less growth-oriented startups move to low-tax, high-amenity cities. |
| Date: | 2021–09–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:yd3v2&r= |
| By: | Colin Wessendorf; Alexander Kopka; Dirk Fornahl |
| Abstract: | The European Commission summarized six young General Purpose Technologies (GPTs) under the label of European Key Enabling Technologies (KETs) in 2009. GPTs are broad, pervasive and widely diffused technologies that enable knowledge creation and economic growth. This study analyzes to what extent the KETs’ structural relevance within their regional knowledge bases leads to regional knowledge creation. Additionally, we analyze whether the structural relevance and the regional knowledge presence in KETs interact with regards to regional knowledge creation. The ‘structure’ of a regional knowledge base describes the relation of all knowledge being present within a given region, while ‘structural relevance’ describes a technology’s impact on the structure. Our analysis focuses on the time period from 1986-2015 and includes Germany’s 141 Labor Market Regions (LMRs) as regional spatial units. Our database consists of patent data from which we map the structure of the regional knowledge bases, by constructing technological spaces based on technology co-occurrences on patents. The structural relevance is operationalized with the help of Social Network Analysis (SNA), by measuring the changes that the removal of KETs causes in the structure of technological spaces. Our findings indicate that KETs enable knowledge creation in different ways. They show that the effects of KETs on regional knowledge creation activities are KET-specific. Furthermore, it proves essential to distinguish between ‘knowledge presence’ and ‘structural knowledge relevance’ when addressing the innovation-spawning function of KETs. Thus, for both further research and for policy-making, it is a fundamental requirement to address KET-driven knowledge creation in particular KET-specific ways. |
| Keywords: | General purpose technologies, GPT, key enabling technologies, KET, regional innovation, regional knowledge base, knowledge space, technological space, technological integration, German regions |
| JEL: | O31 O33 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2127&r= |
| By: | Seltzer, Andrew J.; Wadsworth, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the consequences of the commuter transport revolution on working class labour markets in 1930s London. The ability to commute alleviated urban crowding and increased workers’ choice of potential employers. Using GIS-based data constructed from the New Survey of London Life and Labour, we examine the extent of commuting and estimate the earnings returns to commuting. We obtain a lowerbound estimate of two percent increase in earnings per kilometre travelled. We also show that commuting was an important contributor to improving quality of life in the early-twentieth century. |
| Keywords: | Commuting; public transport; labour markets; New Survey of London Life and Labour |
| JEL: | N34 N94 J31 |
| Date: | 2021–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111900&r= |
| By: | Christoph Albert; Albrecht Glitz; Joan Llull |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we show that the wage assimilation of immigrants is the result of the intricate interplay between individual skill accumulation and dynamic equilibrium effects in the labor market. When immigrants and natives are imperfect substitutes, increasing immigrant inflows widen the wage gap between them. Using a simple production function framework, we show that this labor market competition channel can explain about one quarter of the large increase in the average immigrant-native wage gap in the United States between the 1960s and 1990s arrival cohorts. Once competition effects and compositional changes in education and region of origin are accounted for, we find that the unobservable skills of newly arriving immigrants increased over time rather than decreased as traditionally argued in the literature. We corroborate this finding by documenting closely matching patterns for immigrants' English language proficiency. |
| Keywords: | Immigrant assimilation, labor market competition, cohort sizes, imperfect substitution, general and specific skills |
| JEL: | J21 J22 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1799&r= |
| By: | Konstantin A. Kholodilin; Sebastian Kohl; Artem Korzhenevych; Linus Pfeiffer |
| Abstract: | Welfare is traditionally understood through social security decommodifying labor markets or social investment policies. In the domain of housing, however, welfare for homeowners is largely hidden in the tax codes’ fiscal exemptions. Based on a content analysis of legislation, this paper introduces a novel yearly database of 37 countries between 1910 and 2020 to uncover the “hidden welfare state” of taxes on imputed rent, deductibility of mortgage payments, housing capital gains tax and VAT on newly built dwellings. Summary indices of homeownership attractiveness and neutrality of the tax code show that fiscal homeownership policies have been in decline until the 1980s and risen ever since. They are in place where finance is liberally and labor restrictively regulated. Contrary to the classical welfare state, they are not associated with an economic logic of industrialism or left-wing governments, but a rent-regulation alternative of Common-Law jurisdictions and smaller countries. As welfare for property owners, the logic of fiscal homeownership welfare diverges from the classical welfare for the laboring classes. |
| Keywords: | Homeownership taxation attractiveness, tenure neutrality, leximetrics, international longitudinal data |
| JEL: | C43 H24 K25 R38 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1972&r= |
| By: | Acharya, Tri D.; Jenn, Alan T.; Miller, Marshall R.; Fulton, Lew M. |
| Abstract: | Researchers at UC Davis developed “Spatial Transportation Infrastructure, Energy, Vehicles, and Emissions (STIEVE),” an optimization model for hydrogen refueling stations in California. The model uses inputs from the California Statewide Travel Demand Model (CSTDM) and other sources to determine heavy-duty vehicle travel demand across the state, and the corresponding, localized energy demand. The model then determines which of the transportation analysis zones (areas based on census geography used to replicate areas of trip origins and destinations) delineated by the CSTDM are optimal areas for refueling stations and the number of stations needed in each zone to meet demand while minimizing costs. The final step is a suitability analysis that identifies each station’s specific location within a designated transportation analysis zone, based on a determined footprint for the refueling station. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2021–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt2qw8464c&r= |
| By: | Tim Kovalenko |
| Abstract: | Uncertainty shocks are found to adversely affect labor market outcomes. Most studies attribute labor adjustments costs for the propagation of macroeconomic uncertainty to the labor market. Given that large establishments in Germany face higher labor adjustments cost, they should be affected more strongly by these shocks. Therefore, this paper studies the effects of uncertainty shocks on employment adjustments in large and small establishments employing four structural vector auto-regressive models with quarterly data for Germany in the period 1991-2014. These four models estimate effects of uncertainty shocks on employment, worker flows, job flows as well as worker churn, both for establishments with less than 100 and with at least 100 employees. The results suggest that uncertainty shocks induce considerable employment fluctuations in large establishments, while they have barely an effect on small establishments. Furthermore, large establishments adjust their labor input in response to an uncertainty shock by delaying the replacement of workers who leave these establishments. |
| Keywords: | homeownership, housing subsidies, residential location choice, suburbanization |
| JEL: | H24 H30 H71 R23 R28 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bav:wpaper:212_kovalenko&r= |
| By: | Otero Gomez, Daniel; MANRIQUE, MIGUEL ANGEL CORREA; Sierra, Omar Becerra; Laniado, Henry; Mateus C, Rafael; Millan, David Andres Romero |
| Abstract: | It is a common practice to price a house without proper evaluation studies being performed for assurance. That is why the purpose of this study provide an explanatory model by establishing parameters for accuracy in interpretation and projection of housing prices. In addition, it is intentioned to establish proper data preprocessing practices in order to increase the accuracy of machine learning algorithms. Indeed, according to our literature review, there are few articles and reports on the use of Machine Learning tools for the prediction of property prices in Colombia. The dataset in which the research is built upon was provided by an existing real estate company. It contains near 940,000 items (housing advertisements) posted on the platform from the year 2018 to 2020. The database was enriched using statistical imputation techniques. Housing prices prediction was performed using Decision Tree Regressors and LightGBM methods, thus deriving in better alternatives for house price prediction in Colombia. Moreover, to measure the accuracy of the proposed models, the Root Mean Squared Logarithmic Error (RMSLE) statistical indicator was used. The best cross validation results obtained were 0.25354±0.00699 for the LightGBM, 0.25296 ±0.00511 for the Bagging Regressor, and 0.25312±0.00559 for the ExtraTree Regressor with Bagging Regressor, and it was not found a statistical difference between their performances. |
| Date: | 2020–09–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:w85z2&r= |
| By: | Nybok, Martin (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Stuhler, Jan (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | We use complete-count register data to describe various features of intergenerational mobility in Sweden. First, we document the extent of regional variation in educational and income mobility across Swedish municipalities, and describe its spatial pattern. Second, we study the stability of such regional rankings to the choice of mobility statistic. Third, we show that income inequality and mobility are negatively related, across all mobility measures. Fourth, we exploit variation in local exposure to show that the 1990s economic crisis and the 2007-2008 fi nancial crisis had a negative eff ect on income mobility. |
| Keywords: | The geography of intergenerational mobility; multigenerational mobility; income inequality; recession |
| JEL: | J62 R00 |
| Date: | 2021–09–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2021_011&r= |
| By: | Bekaert, Els; Constant, Amelie F.; Foubert, Killian; Ruyssen, Ilse |
| Abstract: | Aspirations provide the underlying dynamics of the behavior of individuals whether they are realized or not. Knowledge about the characteristics and motives of those who aspire to leave the host country is key for both host and home countries to formulate appropriate and effective policies in order to keep their valued immigrants or citizens and foster their (re-)integration. Based on unique individual-level Gallup World Polls data, a random utility model, and a multinomial logit we model the aspirations or stated preferences of immigrants across 138 countries worldwide. Our analysis reveals selection in characteristics, a strong role for soft factors like social ties and sociocultural integration, and a faint role for economic factors. Changes in circumstances in the home and host countries are also important determinants of aspirations. Results differ by the host countries' level of economic development. |
| Keywords: | Economics of Immigrants,Geographic Labor Mobility,Public Policy,Micro-economic Behavior,Underlying Principles,International Migration,Large Data Sets,Modeling and Analysis |
| JEL: | J15 J61 J68 D01 F22 C55 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:930&r= |
| By: | Sobyra, Robert; Sigler, Thomas; Charles-Edwards, Elin |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of human capital in explaining divergent employment growth within advanced economies. It adds a spatial dimension to William J. Baumol’s theory of ‘unbalanced growth’ by linking it with the concept of ‘job polarization’. We develop a theory of ‘geographical unbalanced growth’ that explains divergent employment trajectories in terms of skill restructuring. The theory is operationalized via a novel shift–share extension, which is applied to Australian data. We find evidence of ongoing regional divergence and for our proposed mechanism. The findings reinforce the importance of active policies to attract high-skilled jobs to non-metropolitan regions. |
| Date: | 2021–09–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:2ywd8&r= |
| By: | Buscha, Franz; Gorman, Emma; Sturgis, Patrick |
| Abstract: | Recent studies of social mobility have documented that not only who your parents are, but also where you grow up, substantially influences subsequent life chances. We bring these two concepts together to study social mobility in England and Wales, in three post-war generations, using linked Decennial Census data. Our findings show considerable spatial variation in rates of absolute and relative mobility, as well as how these have changed over time. While upward mobility increased in every region between the mid-1950s and the early 1980s, this shift varied across different regions and tailed off for more recent cohorts. We also explore how domestic migration is related to social mobility, finding that those who moved out of their region of origin had higher rates of upward mobility compared to those who stayed, although this difference narrowed over time. |
| Keywords: | ES/R00627X/1; ES/V003488/1 |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2021–08–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111605&r= |
| By: | Christopher Esposito; ; |
| Abstract: | Over the 20th century, the geography of breakthrough innovation in the United States – defined as the spatial distribution of the production of patents that are both novel and impactful – underwent three broad changes. At the start of the 20th century, breakthrough innovation was concentrated in populous and knowledge-diverse metropolitan areas. By the 1930s, breakthroughs were created less frequently across the entire country and so their invention had a less distinct geography. The substantial creation of breakthroughs resumed in the 1960s and was once their invention was concentrated in large and knowledge metropolitan areas. However, during the latter part of the century the invention of breakthroughs also frequently involved long-distance collaborations between inventors. In this paper, I document these historical changes to the geography of breakthrough innovation and propose a model to explain why they occurred. The model suggests that the geography of breakthroughs is established by four factors: (1) the prevailing knowledge intensity of breakthrough inventions, (2) the distance- based frictions incurred by technologies used for collaboration, (3) the distance-based frictions incurred by the technologies used for knowledge-sourcing, and (4) the disruptiveness of the regime of technological change. I generate support for the model, and conclude the paper by discussing lessons that the 20th century’s geography of breakthrough innovation provide for anticipating possible futures for the geography of innovation in the 21st century, including in the years beyond COVID-19. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2126&r= |
| By: | Gauger, Felix; Strych, Jan-Oliver; Pfnür, Andreas |
| Abstract: | This data article describes a panel dataset that combines flexible office space market data with entrepreneurial data, such as founding and funding of ventures in 47 European cities. One adaption of new ways of working are coworking spaces. They are shared working environments that offer office space and intangible resources, such as knowledge sharing, collaboration and networking. Access to flexible office space for self-employed, start-ups, and corporates is a key resource for businesses. Covid-19 has shown that space provision is becoming more flexible and ventures increasingly use scalable space instead of long-term lease agreements for office space or than owning it. Deskmag counts 18,700 coworking spaces worldwide in the year of 2018 with 1.65 million coworkers and high future growth expectations after COVID-19 [1]. Data were collected through two sources. Data about coworking spaces were collected through a web scraper crawling for coworking spaces within a city as of December 31, 2018. Those data were manually enriched by real estate and economic variables, such as the office high prime rent and office market size. Data about the funding and founding of ventures were obtained through using the database Crunchbase, including all start-ups in a city with their type of funding (including: seed, venture capital, private equity, debt convertibles and others) and their financing rounds. The Crunchbase database lists mostly young firms, commonly called start-ups and small medium enterprises (SME), and their financing with external funding. It includes firms that have needed or might need funding in the near future, or have already got funding. Hence, it is possible to relate spatial clusters with entrepreneurial activity and analyze for example the influence of (flexible) office markets on founding activity. This dataset enables researchers and practitioners to further explore important questions regarding the nexus between the real estate industry, entrepreneurship behavior, start-ups and regional clusters. Due to the scarcity of publicly available quality flexible office space market data, the dataset detailed in this article may play a relevant role to be ready to be used by researchers and practitioners. Funding data can be used for regional analysis, growth development, or any other economic issues. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:128331&r= |
| By: | Forth, John (Cass Business School); Theodoropoulos, Nikolaos (University of Cyprus); Bryson, Alex (University College London) |
| Abstract: | Using matched employer-employee data for Britain, we examine ethnic wage differentials among full-time employees. We find substantial ethnic segregation across workplaces: around three-fifths of workplaces in Britain employ no ethnic minority workers. However, this workplace segregation does not contribute to the aggregate wage gap between ethnic minorities and white employees. Instead, most of the ethnic wage gap exists between observationally equivalent co-workers. Lower pay satisfaction and higher levels of skill mismatch among ethnic minority workers are consistent with discrimination in wage-setting on the part of employers. The use of job evaluation schemes within the workplace is shown to be associated with a smaller ethnic wage gap. |
| Keywords: | ethnic wage gap, workplace segregation, skill mismatch, pay satisfaction, job evaluation |
| JEL: | J16 J31 M52 M54 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14697&r= |
| By: | Itani, Ibrahim MS; Cassidy, Michael J. PhD; Daganzo, Carlos F. PhD |
| Abstract: | An agent-based, multichannel simulation of a downtown area reveals the impacts of both redistributing traffic demand with time-dependent congestion pricing, and supplying extra capacity by banning left turns. The downtown street network was idealized, and loosely resembles central Los Angeles. On the demand-side, prices were set based on time-ofday and distance traveled. On the supply side, left-turn maneuvers were prohibited at all intersections on the network. Although both traffic management measures reduced travel costs when used alone, the left-turn ban was much less effective than pricing. When combined with pricing under congested conditions, however, the left-turn ban’s effectiveness increased considerably—it more than doubled in some cases. Furthermore, the two measures combined reduced travel costs in synergistic fashion. In some cases, this synergistic effect was responsible for 30% of the cost reduction. This strong synergy suggests that turning bans should be considered as an added option when contemplating congestion pricing. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Traffic congestion, congestion pricing, demand, left turns, travel costs, traffic management, traffic simulation |
| Date: | 2021–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt71j7z3wv&r= |
| By: | Anthony Bald (Harvard University and RIPL); Eric Chyn (Dartmouth College, RIPL and NBER); Justine Hastings (Brown University, RIPL and NBER); Margarita Machelett (Banco de España and RIPL) |
| Abstract: | This paper measures impacts of removing children from families investigated for abuse or neglect. We use removal tendencies of child protection investigators as an instrument. We focus on young children investigated before age six and find that removal significantly increases test scores and reduces grade repetition for girls. There are no detectable impacts for boys. This pattern of results does not appear to be driven by heterogeneity in pre-removal characteristics, foster placements, or the type of schools attended after removal. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that development of abused and neglected girls is more responsive to home removal. |
| Keywords: | foster care, educational attainment, early intervention |
| JEL: | H75 I21 I24 I28 I38 J12 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2126&r= |
| By: | Daisy Assmann Lima (Universidade Católica de Brasília); Philipp Ehrl (Universidade Católica de Brasília) |
| Abstract: | This paper conducts empirical research about the role of culture on internal migration in Brazil. To do so, we deploy data from the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) and the 2010 Brazilian Census. Against the background of the gravitational model, we adopt the method Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood with Fixed Effects (PPMLFE) to account for econometric issues. The results obtained provide new evidence on the influence of the migrant’s perceptions about the push-pull factors of Brazilian municipalities. Traditionally, gravitational models apply features such as Gross Domestic Product per capita, unemployment rate, and population density to measure the attractiveness of cities. All in all, these insights on the migrant’s traits and perceptions about culture pave the way to design appropriate migration policies at the municipal level once migration supports, among others, renewal of the socioeconomic tissue. |
| Date: | 2021–09–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:usug21:7&r= |
| By: | Christopher F Baum (Boston College; DIW Berlin; CESIS); Miguel Henry (Greylock McKinnon Associates) |
| Abstract: | In an extension of the standard spatial autoregressive (SAR) model, Aquaro, Bailey and Pesaran (ABP, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2021) introduced a SAR panel model that allows to produce heterogeneous point estimates for each spatial unit. Their methodology has been implemented as the Stata routine hetsar (Belotti, 2021). As the COVID-19 pandemic has evolved in the U.S. since its first outbreak in February 2020 with following resurgences of multiple widespread and severe waves of the pandemic, the level of interactions between geographic units (e.g., states and counties) have differed greatly over time in terms of the prevalence of the disease. Applying ABP’s HETSAR model to 2020 and 2021 COVID-19 data outcomes (confirmed case and death rates) at the state level, we extend our previous spatial econometric analysis (Baum and Henry, 2021) on socioeconomic and demographic factors influencing the spatial spread of COVID-19 confirmed case and death rates in the U.S.A. |
| Date: | 2021–09–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:usug21:18&r= |
| By: | David, Lucinda (CIRCLE, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | In order to unpack the context that enable place leaders to enact transformative policies in their local economies, this paper conducts a meta-analysis using qualitative comparative analysis (QCA). This paper finds that there are three solution paths, which makes manifestations of place leadership possible. Path 1 combines networks, assets, and leadership skills. Path 2 combines agenda, assets, autonomy, and networks. Path 3 combines agenda, autonomy, network, and leadership skills. Having three paths suggests that different regions can share similar conditions that can enable place leadership but that, importantly; there is no one single condition or ‘recipe’ for doing so |
| Keywords: | place leadership; context; QCA |
| JEL: | D02 R58 |
| Date: | 2021–09–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2021_011&r= |
| By: | L. DeBenedictis; V. Licio; AM. Pinna |
| Abstract: | An integrated and widespread road system, like the one built during the Roman Empire in Italy, plays an important role today in facilitating the construction of new infrastructure. It first influenced the growth of cities, regardless of the variety of historical paths after the fall of the Roman Empire and before the unification of the country. Through this channel Roman roads have been the main determinant of both motorways and railways in the country. Even the Italian North-South divide can be ascribed, among other factors, to the way the ancient infrastructure had an influence on the modern one. |
| Keywords: | Roman roads;Railways;Provinces;Motorways;Long-term effects of history;italy |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:202102&r= |
| By: | Congressional Budget Office |
| Abstract: | This report describes VA’s mortgage guarantee program, including eligibility and underwriting criteria, the structure of the guarantees, and the volume and characteristics of borrowers who obtain such guarantees. The report also describes CBO’s estimates of the budgetary costs of the program and compares those costs with expenditures for other federal guarantees. |
| JEL: | D14 D31 G21 G51 H56 |
| Date: | 2021–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:report:57024&r= |
| By: | Daniel H. Cooper; Vaishali Garga; Maria Jose Luengo-Prado |
| Abstract: | We study the mortgage cash flow channel of monetary policy transmission under fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) versus adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) regimes by comparing the United States with primarily long-term FRMs and Spain with primarily ARMs that automatically reset annually. We find a robust transmission of mortgage rate changes to spending in both countries but surprisingly a larger effect in the United States—and provide two explanations for this finding. First, there are channels of transmission other than the mortgage cash flow effect since other interest rates co-move with the mortgage rate. Second, while mortgage resets in Spain are automatic and typically small, mortgagors in the United States must actively refinance to lock in lower rates. As a result, the mortgage cash flow effect in Spain is homogeneous across mortgagors and symmetric for rate increases and decreases, whereas in the United States the effect is largest when rates decline, especially for households identified as likely refinancers. |
| Keywords: | consumption; intertemporal household choice; monetary policy transmission; adjustable-rate mortgages; fixed-rate mortgages |
| JEL: | D15 E21 E52 |
| Date: | 2021–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:93056&r= |
| By: | Miyako Ikeda; Alfonso Echazarra |
| Abstract: | Most students have the beliefs and dispositions to help them cope and learn in challenging situations. The current pandemic has been ongoing since early 2020. This has affected ways in which teaching and learning are organised. Schools have had to provide education in different ways from the past. A special survey conducted as a collaborative effort between the OECD, UNESCO, UNICEF and the World Bank showed that upper-secondary schools were fully closed for over 65 days in 2020 on average across OECD countries with available data. The special survey also showed that where school closures were needed many countries made major efforts to mitigate their impact on students, focusing especially on vulnerable students by providing remedial measures to reduce students’ learning gaps. Despite these efforts, recently released studies have shown that learning loss during the pandemic was most pronounced among socio-economically disadvantaged students and schools. |
| Date: | 2021–09–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduddd:114-en&r= |
| By: | Catia Batista; David McKenzie |
| Abstract: | We test the predictions of different classic migration theories by using incentivized laboratory experiments to investigate how potential migrants decide between working in different destinations. We test theories of income maximization, migrant skill-selection, and multidestination choice as we vary migration costs, liquidity constraints, risk, social benefits, and incomplete information. We show the standard income maximization model of migration with selection on observed and unobserved skills leads to a much higher migration rate and more negative skill-selection than is obtained when migration decisions take place under more realistic assumptions. Second, we investigate whether the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) assumption holds. We find it holds for most people when decisions just involve wages, costs, and liquidity constraints. However, once we add a risk of unemployment and incomplete information, IIA no longer holds for about 20 percent of our sample. |
| Keywords: | Migrant selection, destination choice, lab experiment, IIA |
| JEL: | D12 C39 I15 I18 O18 Q53 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unl:novafr:wp2111&r= |
| By: | Jun Yoshida; Shinsuke Uchida; Katsuhito Nohara; Akira Hibiki |
| Abstract: | Recently, natural disasters and extreme weather events have been occurring more frequently. This study examines how large floods affect the value of manufacturing product shipments and the number of facilities in the long run using municipality-level data in Japan. We considered the impacts of flooding depending on the size of the facilities and past flood experiences (leading to flood preparedness in advance). We found "build back better" dynamics, in which the value of manufacturing product shipments grew in cities affected by floods. We also found that large facilities increased, while small and mid-sized facilities decreased following floods. These results suggest two important mechanisms characterizing the damage and recovery processes of floods. First, large facilities were more resilient to flooding, while small and mid-sized facilities were more vulnerable to flooding. Economies of scale resulting from small facilities exit, and an increase in large facilities may increase the number of shipments of manufactured goods per facility. Experience with past floods did not affect the activities of large facilities. In frequently flooded cities, the activity levels of small and mid-sized facilities recovered to predisaster trends. In rarely flooded cities, a long-term decline was observed in the business activities of small and mid-sized facilities because they likely needed to revise their supply chains due to unexpected events. In addition, unexpected flooding had devastating effects on employment. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:toh:tupdaa:7&r= |
| By: | Subodh Dubey; Ishant Sharma; Sabyasachee Mishra; Oded Cats; Prateek Bansal |
| Abstract: | Due to the unavailability of prototypes, the early adopters of novel products actively seek information from multiple sources (e.g., media and social networks) to minimize the potential risk. The existing behavior models not only fail to capture the information propagation within the individual's social network, but also they do not incorporate the impact of such word-of-mouth (WOM) dissemination on the consumer's risk preferences. Moreover, even cutting-edge forecasting models rely on crude/synthetic consumer behavior models. We propose a general framework to forecast the adoption of novel products by developing a new consumer behavior model and integrating it into a population-level agent-based model. Specifically, we extend the hybrid choice model to estimate consumer behavior, which incorporates social network effects and interplay between WOM and risk aversion. The calibrated consumer behavior model and synthetic population are passed through the agent-based model for forecasting the product market share. We apply the proposed framework to forecast the adoption of autonomous vehicles (AVs) in Nashville, USA. The consumer behavior model is calibrated with a stated preference survey data of 1,495 Nashville residents. The output of the agent-based model provides the effect of the purchase price, post-purchase satisfaction, and safety measures/regulations on the forecasted AV market share. With an annual AV price reduction of 5% at the initial purchase price of $40,000 and 90% of satisfied adopters, AVs are forecasted to attain around 85% market share in thirty years. These findings are crucial for policymakers to develop infrastructure plans and manufacturers to conduct an after-sales cost-benefit analysis. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.06169&r= |
| By: | Ron Boschma; ; |
| Abstract: | A key objective of Smart Specialization Strategies (S3) is to stimulate related diversification in European regions, rather than unrelated diversification. This chapter will outline the pros and cons of S3 with a prime focus on either related or unrelated diversification. We argue it depends on the specific regional situation which type of S3 to pursue. While there are good reasons to promote related diversification in general, regions may become over-specialized or trapped in a low-complex economy that might warrant a S3 focus on unrelated diversification. |
| Keywords: | Smart specialization, related diversification, unrelated diversification, regional diversification, complexity |
| JEL: | O25 O38 R11 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2128&r= |
| By: | Catherine Buffington; Daniel Chapman; Emin Dinlersoz; Lucia Foster; James Hunt; Shawn Klimek |
| Abstract: | In response to requests from policymakers for additional context for Small Business Pulse Survey (SBPS) measures of the impact of COVID-19 on small businesses, we researched developing estimates by owner characteristics and rural/urban locations. Leveraging geographic coding on the Business Register, we create estimates of the effect of the pandemic on small businesses by urban and rural designations. A more challenging exercise entails linking micro-level data from the SBPS with ownership data from the Annual Business Survey (ABS) to create estimates of the effect of the pandemic on small businesses by owner race, sex, ethnicity, and veteran status. Given important differences in survey design and concerns about nonresponse bias, we face significant challenges in producing estimates for owner demographics. We discuss our attempts to meet these challenges and provide discussion about caution that must be used in interpreting the results. The estimates produced for this paper are available for download. Reflecting the Census Bureau’s commitment to scientific inquiry and transparency, the micro data from the SBPS will be available to qualified researchers on approved projects in the Federal Statistical Research Data Center network. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:21-24&r= |
| By: | Catron, Peter; Loria, Maria Vignau |
| Abstract: | Research on immigrant economic integration generally focuses on the influence of human capital on later occupational success. This research, however, often ignores other individual-level and contextual-level influences on later attainment and when in settlement they are likely to matter. We therefore create a unique panel dataset that follows a Mexican refugee population from arrival and through settlement in the early twentieth century. This novel data source allows us to examine both individual and contextual characteristics on occupational attainment at different points in time. Our analyses show that individual characteristics beyond human capital measures are likely to matter at first arrival, but their effects attenuate over time. This is especially true for perceived skin complexion, persons travelled with, and age which hold large effects on occupational outcomes at first arrival, but smaller effects after longer settlement. Furthermore, we are able to explore the role context of settlement plays on economic attainment. Consistent with previous research, we find that more favorable contexts are associated with better outcomes than less favorable contexts. This research has implications for the understanding of the adaptation and integration of refugee and immigrant populations by shedding light on what and when different variables influence later attainment. |
| Date: | 2021–09–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qgj3p&r= |
| By: | Morando, Greta (University of Westminster) |
| Abstract: | It has been found that migrants and natives are affected differently by fluctuations in the business cycle. This paper analyses whether this is the case when considering the most recent economic downturn triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic. By using UK data, it finds that unemployment has increased for both natives and migrants as has, consequently, the benefits which are aimed to support non-employed households. The rise in these outcomes is particularly important for EU migrants. EU migrants have also been more likely to experience a decrease in pay during the pandemic. Natives, EU workers, and non-EU workers have all suffered similar decreases in hours worked. Since migrants are likely to adjust to negative shocks by return or re-migration, these findings suggest that the recent increase in emigration from the UK can be partly explained by the negative effects of the pandemic on migrants labour market outcomes. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, migration, UK labour market |
| JEL: | F22 J01 J20 J61 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14699&r= |
| By: | Adam Levai (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Riccardo Turati (Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | Even though the existing literature investigating the labor market impact of immigration assumes, implicitly or explicitly, that labor market regulation is exogenous to immigration (in terms of both size and composition), this is not necessarily the case. This paper shows that labor market regulation responds to the composition of the immigrant population. We build a novel workers’ protection index based on 36 labor law variables over a sample of 70 developed and developing countries from 1970 to 2010. Exploiting a dynamic panel setting using both internal and external instruments, we find that workers’ protection in destination countries is influenced by the degree of workers’ protection that immigrants experience in their origin countries and is not affected by immigrant population size. The effects are particularly strong across two dimensions of workers’ protection: worker representation laws and employment forms laws. This paper provides suggestive evidence that immigrants’ participation in unions and its implications for political actors is one of the potential mechanisms. Finally, calculations based on the estimated coefficients suggest that immigration, on average, contributes to a reduction in workers’ protection, particularly in OECD high-income countries. |
| Keywords: | Migration, Labor Market Institutions, Labor Regulation, Workers’ Protection |
| JEL: | J61 K31 F22 |
| Date: | 2021–09–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2021021&r= |
| By: | Otero Gomez, Daniel; MANRIQUE, MIGUEL ANGEL CORREA; Sierra, Omar Becerra; Toro, Mauricio; Millan, David Andres Romero; Mateus C, Rafael |
| Abstract: | When it comes to choosing a career path, senior high-school students struggle to make a decision. The purpose of this research is to help such students select a career track by providing a match-based scored recommendation of academic and professional routes, promoting the development of the government-aided quality educational system by reducing the student dropout. Recommendations are based on the results of the Colombian standardized Saber 11 examination (which is similar to SAT [Scholastic Assessment Test] scores in the U.S.), and how other students with similar characteristics (demographic, socio-economic, family information) performed in their undergraduate tests and the Colombian standardized Saber Pro exam (which is similar to GRE -Graduate Record Examination- scores in the U.S.). Collected information was bundled with their career choice and the recommendation system was developed using Machine Learning and Deep Learning techniques, ROC (Receiver operating characteristic) curve was computed for each career and found on average the AUC (Area under the ROC Curve) score was 0.86 despite the high variability between them. In addition, a business metric was built and evaluated. |
| Date: | 2020–09–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:5xwf6&r= |
| By: | Céline Merlin-Brogniart (CLERSÉ - Centre Lillois d’Études et de Recherches Sociologiques et Économiques - UMR 8019 - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Christine Liefooghe (TVES - Territoires, Villes, Environnement & Société - ULR 4477 - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille); Miklós Rosta (Corvinus University of Budapest); Márton Katona (Corvinus University of Budapest) |
| Abstract: | In the context of social innovation, collaborative governance and in particular innovation networks has gained importance. This paper focuses on the potential for scaling up according to the institutional arrangements and context of different countries. A grid for analyzing the degree of state control of citizens' and local initiatives is proposed in order to study the different forms and intensity of scaling up. |
| Date: | 2021–01–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03333566&r= |
| By: | Camilo A. Cepeda-Francese (El Colegio de México); Aurora A. Ramírez-Álvarez (El Colegio de México) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses how the adoption of a common-law style model affects crime rates, pre-trial detention, and judicial efficiency measures. We do this in the context of Mexico, where a judicial reform was fully implemented by 2016, both on the state and federal levels. Using a generalized synthetic control group approach (Xu, 2017) and municipality-level administrative data for the years 1997-2012, we find that the reform increased the homicide rate and was accompanied by a reduction in the use of pretrial detention for property crimes and rape, and a more rapid process for some types of crimes. The increase in the homicide rate was, nonetheless, specific to municipalities with established organized crime presence, where we observed a reduction in the capacity to effectively prosecute homicides linked to the reform. Our results describe the difficulties in implementing this kind of reform in developing countries experiencing security crises, and they contribute to the literature linking procedural justice and criminal behavior. |
| Keywords: | Crime, Criminal Justice Reform, Generalized Synthetic Control Group, Latin America |
| JEL: | K14 K40 K41 K42 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emx:ceedoc:2021-06&r= |
| By: | Sandsør, Astrid Marie Jorde (University of Oslo); Zachrisson, Henrik Daae; Karoly, Lynn A. |
| Abstract: | Socioeconomic achievement gaps measure the disparity in test scores between students from high and low socioeconomic backgrounds, commonly measured as a combination of parental income, education and occupation. However, educational data often limits the ability to create such measures of family background and link them to student test scores, leading researchers to arrive at different conclusions about levels and trends depending on the SES measure and estimation method. In this paper we disentangle the importance of each by using register data from Norway with precise measures of parental income and education. We show that results crucially depend on the SES measure, as parental income and education are not interchangeable measures of socioeconomic background. Achievement gaps by parental income in Norway are large, 0.55-0.93 standard deviations, and have increased by about 10% of a standard deviation over the 11-year time period we study, whereas achievement gaps by parental education are even larger, 0.86-1.15 standard deviations, but remain stable over the same period. Accounting for compositional changes in immigration decreases the magnitude of the gaps, whether measured by parental income or education, while trends remain the same. |
| Date: | 2021–09–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:edarxi:unvcy&r= |
| By: | Susan, Shaheen |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt2zp0z4cn&r= |
| By: | Cörvers, Frank (RS: GSBE Theme Learning and Work, RS: FdR Research Group ITEM, RS: SBE - MACIMIDE, ROA / Human capital in the region); Reinold, Julia (RS: GSBE MGSoG, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, RS: FdR Research Group ITEM); Chakkar, Saena (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Human capital in the region); Bolzonella, Francesco; Ronda, Vera |
| Abstract: | Attracting and retaining migrants can have many benefits for the host country and its economy, for example to mitigate skills shortages. Regulating immigration may prevent several negative consequences of a shrinking and ageing population. However, research and policy often focus on the highly skilled or so-called knowledge migrants (kennismigranten) as a source of human capital, which can increase innovation and a country’s competitiveness. A group of labour migrants that receives significantly less attention from research and policy, are the medium-skilled migrant workers. Although it makes up a significant share of the migrant population, this group is rarely supported by specific migration policies. |
| Date: | 2021–08–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umarot:2021005&r= |
| By: | Oliver Hümbelin; Lukas Hobi; Robert Fluder |
| Abstract: | In many countries, it is difficult to study subnational poverty patterns, as official statistics often rely on surveys with limited ability to disaggregate regionally. This is a drawback because the social and economic structure varies within countries, which has a significant impact on who lives below the poverty line. To address poverty, it is therefore important to further understand urban/rural differences. In this context, administrative data-based approaches offer new opportunities. This paper contributes to the field of territorial poverty studies by using linked tax data to examine poverty in a large political district in Switzerland with 1 million inhabitants and large rural and urban parts. We measure poverty using income and financial reserves (asset-based poverty) and examine poverty in urban and rural areas. By doing so we can compare the social structure of the poor in detail. We then use random forest based variable importance analysis to see whether the importance of poverty risks factors differs in urban and rural parts. We can show that poor people in rural areas are more likely to be of retirement age compared to the urban parts. Among the workforce, the share of poor is higher for those who work in agriculture compared to those working in industry or the service sector. In urban areas, the poor are more often freelancers and people of foreign origin. Despite on where they live, people with no or little education, single parents, and people working in gastronomy/tourism are disproportionately often poor. With respect to risk factors, we find that the general opportunity structure like density of workplaces or aggravated access in mountain areas seem to be of minor importance compared to risk factors that relate to the immediate social situation. Low attachment to the labor market is by far the most important characteristic predicting poverty on the household level. However, the sector of occupation is of big importance too. Since the possibilities to engage in a specific occupation is linked to the regional opportunity structure, this result fosters the argument that territorial opportunities matter. The importance of the sector of occupation is especially dominant predicting poor households in rural parts. |
| Keywords: | poverty, poverty risk factors, regional difference, admin-data, random forest |
| JEL: | I32 |
| Date: | 2021–09–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bss:wpaper:40&r= |
| By: | Laurent, Thibault; Margaretic, Paula; Thomas-Agnan, Christine |
| Abstract: | The rapidly increasing dimensionality and throughput of flow data require new tools for analysis and interpretation. This paper provides open source tools for the exploration and analysis of origin-destination spatial flow data. We integrate in a single open source R software tool existing visualization techniques for complex OD flow data, as well as new graphical representations. We discuss implementation of these tools from a practitioner point of view. These tools should help scholars to extract meaningful relations between entities accounting at the same time for the intensity of the movements (or relations) and the geography linking the spatial units |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:125949&r= |
| By: | Jiamin Yu |
| Abstract: | It has been for a long time to use big data of autonomous vehicles for perception, prediction, planning, and control of driving. Naturally, it is increasingly questioned why not using this big data for risk management and actuarial modeling. This article examines the emerging technical difficulties, new ideas, and methods of risk modeling under autonomous driving scenarios. Compared with the traditional risk model, the novel model is more consistent with the real road traffic and driving safety performance. More importantly, it provides technical feasibility for realizing risk assessment and car insurance pricing under a computer simulation environment. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.07211&r= |
| By: | Joshua Ballance; Melanie Qing; J. Christina Wang |
| Abstract: | This policy brief uses Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) data to assess whether the Main Street Lending Program (MSLP) borrowers were in worse financial health than their peers before COVID-19 hit the economy hard in March 2020 or suffered worse deterioration afterward. The findings can help us better understand why these firms sought to obtain MSLP loans. We find that MSLP borrowers tend to be larger than their peer firms (that is, firms in the same industry and state). Within the same size group, MSLP borrowers are on average younger than their peers. Borrowers tended to have a slightly higher predicted risk of failure than their peers in March 2020. Their failure risk grew somewhat more than their peers' risk from March to the month when their MSLP loan request was submitted. These firms' relative performance in 2020 appears to be little correlated with their relative performance over the corresponding months in 2019. MSLP borrowers had worse actual delinquency records in March 2020, as well as more deterioration than their peers from March to the month of the MSLP loan submission. For the subset of borrowers with business spending data available from D&B, spending was on average higher in March 2020 than their peer companies' spending, and it fell somewhat less from March to the MSLP loan submission month. Taken together, our findings suggest that these firms borrowed from the MSLP because 1) their greater growth or survival potential, and hence relationship value, made lenders willing to lend to them, and 2) their higher credit risk made the MSLP attractive, as it enabled the borrowers to pay a lower price or obtain more credit than they would have otherwise. |
| Keywords: | Main Street Lending Program; Federal Reserve; COVID-19; Dun & Bradstreet firm-level data |
| JEL: | D22 E58 E63 E65 |
| Date: | 2021–09–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbcq:93055&r= |
| By: | Kendal Lowrey; Jennifer Van Hook; James D. Bachmeier; Thomas B. Foster |
| Abstract: | During the early twentieth century, industrial-era European immigrants entered the United States with lower levels of education than the U.S. average. However, empirical research has yielded unclear and inconsistent evidence about the extent and pace of their integration, leaving openings for arguments that contest the narrative that these groups experienced rapid integration and instead assert that educational deficits among lower-status groups persisted across multiple generations. Here, we advance another argument, that European immigrants may have “leapfrogged” or exceeded U.S.-born non-Hispanic white attainment by the third generation. To assess these ideas, we reconstituted three-generation families by linking individuals across the 1940 Census, years 1973, 1979, 1981-90 of the Current Population Survey, the 2000 Census, and years 2001-2017 of the American Community Survey. Results show that most European immigrant groups not only caught up with U.S.-born whites by the second generation, but surpassed them, and this advantage further increased in the third generation. This research provides a new understanding of the time to integration for 20th century European immigrant groups by showing that they integrated at a faster pace than previously thought, indicative of a process of accelerated upward mobility. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational mobility, European immigrants, education, integration |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:21-20&r= |
| By: | Céline Merlin-Brogniart (CLERSÉ - Centre Lillois d’Études et de Recherches Sociologiques et Économiques - UMR 8019 - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Lars Fuglsang (Roskilde University); Ada Scupola (Roskilde University); Anne Hansen (Roskilde University); Rolf Rønning (The Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences); Siv Magnussen (The Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences); Alberto Peralta (UAH - Universidad de Alcalá - University of Alcalá); Miklós Rosta (Corvinus University of Budapest); Márton Katona (Corvinus University of Budapest); Éva Révész (Corvinus University of Budapest) |
| Abstract: | In the context of the modernization of public management in Europe, the attention paid to social entrepreneurs for innovation is increasingly important. This paper reveals that these actors significantly contribute to the development of collaborative governance aimed at improving social innovation related to public service through their role as initiator, boundary spanner or network leader. However, the public sector actors involved in the governance also have a significant role to play in enabling these innovations to emerge. This paper analyzes the forms and processes of innovation taken by this multi-actors collaborative governance. It is based on the study of 25 case studies associated with five countries of the European Union. |
| Date: | 2021–01–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03333560&r= |
| By: | Antoine Deeb |
| Abstract: | Estimated value-added (VA) measures have become popular metrics of worker and institutional quality among economists and policy makers, and recent studies increasingly use these measures either as dependent or explanatory variables in regressions. For example, VA is used as an explanatory variable when examining the relationship between teacher VA and students' long-run outcomes. Due to the multi-step nature of VA estimation and the correlations between the observable characteristics of the students and true teacher quality, the standard errors researchers routinely use when including VA measures in OLS regressions are incorrect. In this paper, I construct correct standard errors for regressions that use VA as an explanatory variable and for regressions where VA is the outcome. I do so by showing how the assumptions underpinning VA models naturally lead to a generalized method of moments (GMM) framework. I propose corrected standard error estimators derived using GMM, and discuss the need to adjust standard errors under different sets of assumptions. Finally, I show that models using VA as an explanatory variable can be written as overidentified systems resembling instrumental variable systems, and propose a more efficient estimator. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.01741&r= |
| By: | Christiane Baumeister (University of Notre Dame, University of Pretoria, NBER and CEPR); Danilo Leiva-León (Banco de España); Eric Sims (University of Notre Dame and NBER) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we develop a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We show that there is considerable heterogeneity in the length, depth, and timing of business cycles across individual states. We assess the role of states in national recessions and propose an aggregate indicator that allows us to gauge the overall weakness of the U.S. economy. We also illustrate the usefulness of these state-level indices for quantifying the main forces contributing to the economic collapse caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and for evaluating the effectiveness of federal economic policies like the Paycheck Protection Program. |
| Keywords: | local economic conditions, government policies, weekly indicators, state economies, cross-state heterogeneity, mixed-frequency dynamic factor model, economic weakness index, Markov-switching, recession probabilities |
| JEL: | C32 C55 E32 E66 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2134&r= |
| By: | Mohammadjavad Javadinasr (Yalda); Tassio B. Magassy (Yalda); Ehsan Rahimi (Yalda); Motahare (Yalda); Mohammadi (Kouros); Amir Davatgari (Kouros); Abolfazl (Kouros); Mohammadian; Deborah Salon; Matthew Wigginton Bhagat-Conway; Rishabh Singh Chauhan; Ram M. Pendyala; Sybil Derrible; Sara Khoeini |
| Abstract: | The explosive nature of Covid-19 transmission drastically altered the rhythm of daily life by forcing billions of people to stay at their homes. A critical challenge facing transportation planners is to identify the type and the extent of changes in people's activity-travel behavior in the post-pandemic world. In this study, we investigated the travel behavior evolution by analyzing a longitudinal two-wave panel survey data conducted in the United States from April 2020 to October 2020 (wave 1) and from November 2020 to May 2021(wave 2). Encompassing nearly 3,000 respondents across different states, we explored pandemic-induced changes and underlying reasons in four major categories of telecommute/telemedicine, commute mode choice, online shopping, and air travel. Upon concrete evidence, our findings substantiate significantly observed and expected changes in habits and preferences. According to results, nearly half of employees anticipate having the alternative to telecommute and among which 71% expect to work from home at least twice a week after the pandemic. In the post-pandemic period, auto and transit commuters are expected to be 9% and 31% less than pre-pandemic, respectively. A considerable rise in hybrid work and grocery/non-grocery online shopping is expected. Moreover, 41% of pre-covid business travelers expect to have fewer flights (after the pandemic) while only 8% anticipate more, compared to the pre-pandemic. Upon our analyses, we discuss a spectrum of policy implications in all mentioned areas. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.07988&r= |
| By: | Hongzhen Ni; Jing Zhao; Xiujian Peng; Glyn Wittwer; Genfa Chena |
| Abstract: | This paper uses SinoTERM, a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium model (CGE) of the Chinese economy, to analyze the economic impact of large hydropower development projects. The model features regional labor market dynamics and an electricity subdivision module with substitutability between various types of electricity generation. The results suggest that hydropower development will boost economic growth in the project region. Most sectors in the project region will benefit from the hydropower development while some sectors will suffer a loss in output because of the substantial increase in real wages. Neighboring regions also benefit as a result of increased electricity supply in the operational phase of the proposed hydropower station. The impact of the hydropower development project on the national GDP as a whole is relatively small although positive. However, because of the long lag between the construction and operational phases, the hydropower development project will result in a national welfare loss measured by real household consumption and net foreign liability. Therefore, the project could only be justified if net environmental benefits outweigh this loss. |
| Keywords: | dynamic CGE model, hydropower development, multiple regions, economic impacts, electricity subdivision module, China |
| JEL: | C68 O13 R58 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-320&r= |
| By: | Cindy Cunningham; Lucia Foster; Cheryl Grim; John Haltiwanger; Sabrina Wulff Pabilonia; Jay Stewart; Zoltan Wolf |
| Abstract: | Within-industry productivity dispersion is pervasive and exhibits substantial variation across countries, industries, and time. We build on prior research that explores the hypothesis that periods of innovation are initially associated with a surge in business start-ups, followed by increased experimentation that leads to rising dispersion potentially with declining aggregate productivity growth, and then a shakeout process that results in higher productivity growth and declining productivity dispersion. Using novel detailed industry-level data on total factor productivity and labor productivity dispersion from the Dispersion Statistics on Productivity along with novel measures of entry rates from the Business Dynamics Statistics and productivity growth data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for U.S. manufacturing industries, we find support for this hypothesis, especially for the high-tech industries. |
| Keywords: | dispersion; entry; innovation; productivity; manufacturing; high-tech industries |
| JEL: | O3 O4 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:21-21&r= |
| By: | Oriane Lafuente-Sampietro (TRIANGLE - Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This article will investigate the links between convertible local currencies (CLCs) and economic localisation. Following on the qualitative study by Marshall and O'Neil (2018), we will answer the following question: to what extent do convertible local currencies foster the localisation of procurement and production by creating new commercial relationships between businesses that use them? We will use data from a quantitative survey conducted by the Mouvement SOL, a French net- work of CLCs, for individual (n=1597) and provider (n=542) users of French CLCs. We will also address how new providers are found through the currency and analyse the change in con- sumption and production practices. This first analysis will be supported by a case study on the Eusko, the largest convertible local currency in France. The Eusko case makes it possible to cross-reference the survey data from Eusko users with the transaction data from digital Eusko users in order to evaluate whether the results of forming commercial relationships between companies are consistent across both sources. We will also use digital Eusko transaction data to run a network analysis, enabling us to observe the development of commercial relationships inside the community over time. We found that between one fourth to one third of businesses in a CLC network find new business partners in their CLC community, connecting with 3.5 new partners on average. These results are more encouraging than the absence of localisation found by Marshall and O'Neil (2018). Transaction data also allows us to determine which sectors benefit the most from the circulation of CLC and thus draw a conclusion on the capacity of the currency to move from the localisation of procurement to the localisation of production. Our results on this point are more balanced. The retail sector benefits the most from the circulation of Eusko and actors in this sector ex- change 40% of the CLC received into national currency, limiting the flow of income exchanged within the CLC. |
| Keywords: | Economic localisation,Convertible local currency,Monnaie locale complémentaire,Monnaie alternative |
| Date: | 2021–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03324630&r= |
| By: | HASHIMOTO Yuki; KOMAE Kazutomo |
| Abstract: | This study examines the negative externalities resulting from limited opportunities for negotiations between government institutions. We show that the externalities caused by subsidized wheelchair-accessible vehicles (SWAV) under policies for elderly care have eroded the demand for taxis regulated by transportation policies in Japan. An increase of 10 percent of SWAV is associated with a roughly 1 percent decrease in the number of passengers and operating revenue for taxis. The increase in SWAV accounts for as much as one third of the drop in taxi usage between 2010 and 2015. Our analysis also finds that taxi drivers' wage elasticity is greater than 1, meaning that wages were reduced more than the decrease in taxi usage. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:21074&r= |