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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Gianluca Mattarocci; Gibilaro Lucia |
| Abstract: | Local railway service is a key instrument to support the survival and the growth of small towns increasing the demand by individuals that are not interested to live in the main cities and that could accept the cost of commuting day-by-day for working. The existence of a local railway station connected with the main surrounding cities reduces the transportation cost for people leaving in small towns that cannot work in the town and reduces the risk of migration of citizens to the main cities. The paper analyses a representative sample of Italian towns in the Lazio area for the time period 1996-2017 in order to measure the contribution of the local railway service on the land value for housing investment. Results show that the existence of local railway service matters for both the rental and ownership market but the effect may be different on the basis of the type of service provided by the railway company. The main features that affect the house value are the number of train lines servicing the station, the distance from the main cities and the number of towns served by each train line. |
| Keywords: | housing; Local railway; Ownership; Rent |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_129&r= |
| By: | Jung Sakong |
| Abstract: | A capital influx into local housing markets would be expected to increase house prices, but the spillover effect onto rental prices is theoretically ambiguous. I estimate both price impacts in U.S. residential housing markets using data from a boom in real estate purchases by buyers from China, which amounted to $200 billion of purchases made between 2010 and 2019. Using a novel method to measure these purchases and an instrumental variable for where purchases are made, I find a large positive house price impact. Consistent with investment q-theory, rents fall as constructions rise, especially in areas with elastic housing supply. |
| Keywords: | Chinese investors; investment q-theory; house prices and rents |
| JEL: | R21 R31 F21 |
| Date: | 2021–08–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:93017&r= |
| By: | Michael Scholz |
| Abstract: | The price-rent ratio is one of the most important measures for monitoring the housing market. This paper outlines and adopts a hedonic Spatio-temporal methodology for estimating quality-adjusted price-rent ratios for apartments in 21 major cities in Germany. With the user-cost equilibrium condition, it is subsequently possible to derive estimates of the cross-section of expected real capital gains. In addition, quality-adjusted property price and rental indices are computed at the city-level. Using this new hedonic method applied to prices and rents over the period 2014Q2 – 2018Q1, we nd a large degree of heterogeneity across cities and time. These ndings deliver deep insights into the dynamics of the German housing market and have important implications for housing investment and urban planning. |
| Keywords: | housing market; Price-rent ratios; Spatio-temporal hedonic model; User cost |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_159&r= |
| By: | Mense, Andreas |
| Abstract: | I estimate the impact of new housing supply on the local rent distribution, exploiting weather shocks during the construction phase as an instrument. New supply decreases rents at all quality levels. Building on a quantitative dynamic model of housing quality and tenure choice, I explain this pattern by secondary housing supply: New supply to the owner-occupier market triggers a cascade of moves in the rental market, freeing up units across the housing quality spectrum. This mechanism has implications for housing policy, the integration of the housing market, and the integration of new- and used-product markets in general. |
| Keywords: | secondary markets,market integration,housing markets,rent distribution,dynamic housing choice |
| JEL: | D15 D40 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwqwdp:052021&r= |
| By: | Alexander von Kulessa |
| Abstract: | The public and academic discourses have prominently pointed to local oppositions, often qualified as “Not in My Back Yard-attitudes” (NIMBYism), to explain why housing is increasingly difficult to build and unaffordable to many, especially dense urban areas. This claim relies on the assumption that “Not in My Back Yard” does translate to “Not in My Constituency” on the political level. Yet research on the politics of planning policies and decisions is rather scant. The paper replaces residents’ preferences in the political and institutional context, relying on the example of Greater London. Using detailed data from the London Development Database (2007-2017), the paper finds solid evidence that the number of housing approvals per ward as well as the share of affordable units are strongly linked to median voter preferences in the constituency, which are estimated using micro-data from the British Social Attitudes Survey (2010, 2014, 2016). While these results support the “NIMBY-Hypothesis”, they are only one part of the story. Regression analysis indicates that party politics and regional planning targets matter as well and may counterbalance local oppositions to new housing constructions. |
| Keywords: | housing; Housing Affordability; New Residential Construction; Urban Planning |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_165&r= |
| By: | Radoslaw Trojanek; Micha Guszak; Pawel Kufel; Justyna Tanas; Maria Trojanek |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the convergence of 18 regional housing markets in Poland using quarterly data from 2000 to 2019. The objective of the paper is twofold. First, we test whether the house prices in Poland are converging over time and identify convergence clubs. Second, we compare the housing market convergence before and after the 2008 financial crisis. The test results suggest that there is little evidence of overall convergence. We identified two major convergence clubs in Poland formed during the study period (2000–2019). The results differed when we considered subperiods (2000–2007 and 2007–2019). In both subperiods, we identified four clubs and some divergent housing markets. The paper fills the gap in knowledge on the convergence of regional housing markets within an emerging economy setting. Little is known about this phenomenon in Eastern European Countries with their unique institutional framework. Additionally, we address differences in house price convergence before, and after the financial crisis, a topic often overlooked in other empirical studies. |
| Keywords: | club convergence; housing market; Housing Prices |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_186&r= |
| By: | Sebastian Will |
| Abstract: | For more than a decade, we have seen a rise in real estate prices simultaneously with a decrease in interest rates. In this article, we demonstrate how and to what extent interest rate changes influence prices in real estate markets. We apply a vector autoregressive model with cointegrating variables to examine this relationship during the years between 2007 and 2020. Using times series of different segments of the real estate market, we find significant negative responses of investment property prices and rents to a positive interest rate shock while apartment and house prices positively react. Considering mortgage interest rate shocks, we again find a divided picture, which fosters the perception of different behaviour of real estate segments responding to interest rate shocks. The results suggest that these differences can be explained by the different composition of investors and planned utilisation in the considered segments. |
| Keywords: | Cointegration; House Prices; Interest Rate; Var |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_223&r= |
| By: | Annamari Kiviaho; Saija Toivonen |
| Abstract: | Urban shrinkage is a significant challenge in many countries across the globe. However, it is a serious challenge, especially in European countries. For instance, it has been estimated that one-fifth of European cities have experienced population loss between 1990 and 2010. Urban shrinkage will cause significant problems for the local real estate market, such as decreasing real estate prices and values, the decay of buildings, segregation, increasing vacant and abandoned properties. Uncertain value development of the local estates can drive the total economic base of the city at risk. In addition, the current unsustainable real estate market development causes many negative consequences that can have far-reaching implications for the future development of the real estate market. Our research focuses on future real estate market development in shrinking cities, aiming to identify and explain the future consequences of the forces of change affecting the local real estate market. First, the forces of change such as megatrends, trends, wild cards, driving forces, and weak signals were identified by utilizing the Environmental scanning method. Second, the future consequences of the forces for change were analysed by utilizing the future wheel method. This method is mainly used in future research to reveal primary, secondary, and tertiary consequences of trends, events, or emerging issues. The results of our research are useful for several parties operating in the real estate market, such as urban planners, real estate investors and owners. |
| Keywords: | Futures research; Real Estate Market; Urban Shrinkage; Value development |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_192&r= |
| By: | Andrew F. Haughwout; Belicia Rodriguez |
| Abstract: | In our previous post, we illustrated the recent extraordinarily strong growth in home prices and explored some of its key spatial patterns. Such price increases remind many of the first decade of the 2000s when home prices reversed, contributing to a broad housing market collapse that led to a wave of foreclosures, a financial crisis, and a prolonged recession. This post explores the risk that such an event could recur if home prices go into reverse now. We find that although the situation looks superficially similar to the brink of the last crisis, there are important differences that are likely to mitigate the risks emanating from the housing sector. |
| Keywords: | mortgages; foreclosures; prices |
| JEL: | D14 R31 |
| Date: | 2021–09–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:93032&r= |
| By: | Koen van Ruijven (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Joep Tijm (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis) |
| Abstract: | The railroad tunnelling in Delft (the Netherlands) has led to substantial, additional, increases in residential property prices. Our results show that the price elasticity with respect to the distance to the (tunnelled) railroad would have been about 5 percentage points lower in case Delft would not have tunneled its railroad. In a Dutch document ‘De leefbaarheidseffecten van Spoorzone Delft’ we explain that the increased liveability can be valued at 400 million euros. Read the Dutch document ‘De leefbaarheidseffecten van Spoorzone Delft’. Inhabitants of Delft have experienced significant nuisance from railroad traffic. Since 1965, trains entered the city via an elevated track that ran right through the city. In our analyses we show that noise and other forms of nuisance made living close to the train tracks less attractive, which was reflected in residential property prices. For this research we have used a dataset provided by the NVM (the largest association of real estate agents and appraisers in the Netherlands) containing residential property characteristics and transaction prices starting in 1995. Besides the effect on residential property prices, we show that the railroad tunneling has led to sorting effects. Our results indicate that the socioeconomic status of inhabitants of neighbourhoods around the tunnel has changed substantially due to the railroad tunnelling. |
| JEL: | R38 R58 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpb:discus:423&r= |
| By: | Andrew F. Haughwout; Belicia Rodriguez |
| Abstract: | House prices have risen rapidly during the pandemic, increasing even faster than the pace set before the 2007 financial crisis and subsequent recession. Is there a risk that another dangerous housing bubble is developing? This is a complicated question, and the answer has many components. This post, the first of two, provides a more detailed look at the recent rise in home prices by breaking it down geographically, with a comparison to the pre-2007 bubble. The second post looks at the potential risks to financial stability by comparing the currently outstanding stock of mortgage debt to the period before the financial crisis and projecting defaults should prices decline. |
| Keywords: | housing; cities; prices |
| JEL: | R31 R10 |
| Date: | 2021–09–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:93031&r= |
| By: | Klaus Zahn |
| Abstract: | "Modern Architecture" and "Modern Urbanism" are increasingly proving to be old, outdated and obsolete. The European city of short distances, which is still popular, beautiful and attractive today, has all too often been transformed with brutal radicalism into a functionally divided, car-oriented city of long distances, which not only harms our environment, but also our health. The mere "re-framing" of this non-sustainable planning ideology cannot solve the very damage and problems it has caused, certainly not in a sustainable and human way. The most important question is: Why and for what purpose do we develop and build cities? What is the goal and purpose of our projects? What is the meaning of urban planning and real estate development? This paper identifies the need for change in the school and practice of urban planning and real estate development. It is intended to promote discussion and lead to a “new” paradigm that considers timeless and ubiquitous principles of beautiful cities that sustain life on earth. |
| Keywords: | Meaning; Modern Architecture and City Planning; Sense; Sustainable Urban Development |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_207&r= |
| By: | Haoyang Liu; David O. Lucca; Dean Parker; Gabriela Rays-Wahba |
| Abstract: | During the pandemic, national home values and housing activity soared as mortgage rates declined to historic lows. Under the canonical “user cost” house price model, home values are held to be very sensitive to interest rates, especially at low interest rate levels. A calibration of this model can account for the house price boom with the observed decline in interest rates. But empirically, we find that home values are nowhere near as sensitive to interest rates as the user cost model predicts. This lower sensitivity is also found in prior economic research. Thus, the historical experience suggests that lower interest rates can only account for a tiny fraction of the pandemic house price boom. Instead, we find more scope for lower interest rates to explain the rise in housing activity, both sales and construction. |
| Keywords: | home price; housing activity; interest rate |
| JEL: | D14 E52 R31 |
| Date: | 2021–09–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:93027&r= |
| By: | Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Lee, Neil |
| Abstract: | Innovation in cities is increasingly regarded as an outcome of two potential inputs: scientific activity and creativity. Recent firm level research has suggested that what really matters for innovation is the combination of these two inputs, rather than the mere presence of workers representing each group. Yet there is little evidence on whether this relationship holds at the city level. This paper investigates this gap in our knowledge by examining how the simultaneous presence of STEM (geeks) and creative workers (hipsters) in 290 US Metropolitan Statistical Areas during the period between 2005 and 2015 has contributed to determine city level innovation. The results indicate that, although at first sight the presence of STEM workers is a more important driver of innovation than that of creative ones, it is the combination of both factors that maximizes innovation in US cities. The most innovative cities are precisely those that are more successful at combining the two. Hence, current policies which tend to focus mainly on either STEM or creativity may be better targeted at ensuring both are present. |
| Keywords: | cities; creative class; creativity; innovation; STEM; United States; AH/S001298/1 |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2020–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:103974&r= |
| By: | Aydemir, Abdurrahman (Sabanci University); Duman, Erkan (Sabanci University) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates effects of birth place migration networks and other location attributes on destination choices of internal migrants conditional on migration. We also study heterogeneity in the role of these factors for migrant types who differ by skill group, age at migration, and reason of migration. We use data on male migrants from three rounds of Turkish censuses 1985, 1990 and 2000 who choose among 67 provinces. We find that migrants are drawn to provinces with larger networks, relatively better economic conditions, and distance is a significant deterrent for migration. There are, however, significant heterogeneities across migrant types. More educated move longer distances and rely less on networks for destination choice. Importance of labor market conditions increases and the effect of distance decreases with age. Among migrants with different reason of migration, labor market conditions play a significant role only for migrants moving for employment reasons and networks matter less for this group. |
| Keywords: | migration, networks, destination choice, education, reason of migration, heterogeneous effects |
| JEL: | J61 O15 R23 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14677&r= |
| By: | Belgin Akcay; Mert Akyuz; Çan Karul |
| Abstract: | Since housing is one of the most expensive commodities in Turkey as in many countries, credit and housing markets are closely linked. However, based on the literature review in this study there is no research on the relationship of credit with house price for Turkey. Thus, the study aims at examining whether there is a causal relationship between mortgage credit and house price in Turkey. For achieving this aim, we apply four causality tests for the period between 2010 and 2020 at monthly frequency: Granger causality tests, Toda-Yamamoto causality tests, Granger causality tests with Fourier approach, and Toda-Yamamoto causality tests with Fourier approach. The findings of the empirical analysis show that there is a strong one-way causality between house prices and mortgage credit and that the direction of the causality is from credit to house prices. The results of all the different causality tests reach to the identical results. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19 pandemic; House Prices; Mortgage Loan |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_28&r= |
| By: | Ricarda Haffki |
| Abstract: | This research empirically examines cross-sectional property- and credit-risk determinants of credit spreads for commercial real estate senior loans. In contrast to previous studies, we exploit a new large data set of commercial real estate mortgages of German real estate banks concentrating on senior lending activities from 2015 to 2019. These mortgages have not been securitized into CMBS loans and thus, belong to the on-balance activities of the lenders. Our results are largely consistent with theoretical predictions. In particular, credit spreads are positively related to the cap rate, reflecting the property risk, and the loan-to-value ratio, reflecting the credit risk. In focusing on senior loans, we are able to place the results in a precise context of property- and mortgage-related impacts. |
| Keywords: | Commercial Real Estate Loans; Credit Spreads; Determinants of Loan Pricing; Relationship Lending |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_31&r= |
| By: | Peter Parlasca; Vincent Tronet |
| Abstract: | Among the housing statistics published by Eurostat, housing price statistics are available for more than a decade. However, house sales statistics in number and value of transactions are publicly available only since summer 2020 capturing quarterly information for many European countries at least since 2015. Housing statistics are key for policy makers but also for households due to their economic and social importance. In the surveillance of the COVID 19 impact on economic activities, housing prices did not yet show a huge impact of the economic downturn in many countries. In contrast, house sales indicated a slowdown of housing market activities. Consequently, these indicators are essential for analyzing crisis developments. During the ERES conference begin June 2021 the data for all the quarters in 2020 will be available in the Eurostat database encompassing house sales indicators for 24 European countries. Every quarter, Eurostat publishes the following indicators: house prices with a breakdown for new and existing dwellings, owner occupiers housing price indices, numbers and volumes of house sales. These indicators support not only medium and long-term analyses of this key sector of the economy but in addition allow monitoring crisis effects. The presentation provides a preliminary analysis for European countries and will guide to find the requested information on the Eurostat website which is free of charge and can be consulted on https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/. |
| Keywords: | crisis monitoring; Housing Markets; housing statistics; new housing data |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_38&r= |
| By: | Karina Pallagst; Jakob Schackmar; René Fleschurz |
| Abstract: | In the past decades many cities and regions underwent structural transformations – e.g. in old industrialized ‘rust belts’ or in peripheral rural areas. Many of these shrinking cities have to face the challenges of long-term demographic and economic changes. While in the USA, shrinkage is often related to postindustrial transformations in other countries like Germany for example, the causes are related to changing demographics with declining birth rates and the effects of the German reunification. Many cities have tried to combat shrinkage and have thus developed a variety of policies and strategies like establishing substitute industries. To assess the sustainability of this approach this presentation shows the results of investigations regarding the cities Cleveland/USA and Bochum/Germany in a comparative analysis following the most similar/most different research design. The research shows new development paths for shrinking cities. |
| Keywords: | comparative urban development; Land Use Change; Shrinking Cities; Sustainable Urban Development |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_161&r= |
| By: | Zhenyu Su; Paloma Taltavull de La Paz; Raúl Pérez; Francisco Juárez Tárraga |
| Abstract: | The paper builds the cycles of transactions and prices in the short-term rental market since almost the beginning of that this rental activity becomes relevant for cities during the second decade of the XXI century. The paper shows the data elaborated building a micro database with Airbnb information for 46 cities around the world. The analysis reaches the cycles by extracting millions of observations and shows the periods where the rental was more relevant for the cities. A model relating short rental visits with macroaggregates allows for learning the main drivers to explain the explosion of short-term visits using housing rental sharing as the means for hospitality. |
| Keywords: | Airbnb; Comovements; rental prices; Short-term rental market |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_216&r= |
| By: | Andre Legarza |
| Abstract: | Property investors generally rely on rent payments to meet their property-level debt service requirements. However, due to the Covid-19 pandemic, a majority of European countries have adopted rent moratoriums or passed legislation to protect non-paying property occupants from eviction. Following, this paper investigates the relationship between public policy on rent payments and real property asset pricing in three major European housing markets (Amsterdam, London, and Paris). Through a mixed-methods methodology, the paper aims to determine if there is a clear relationship between contemporary policies surrounding rent collection and investors interest in properties within Amsterdam, London, and Paris, as reflected by asset pricing. The paper will rely on quantitative data from the Real Capital Analytics property transaction database to determine changes to housing property prices following the Covid-19 pandemic and identify investors active within each city to interview for the qualitative portion of the project. The qualitative portion of the project will showcase in-depth interviews with investors active within each property market, focused on their perceptions of rent and tolerances for non-payment of rent when it comes to purchasing real property assets. Ultimately, the paper aims to contribute to real estate and urban scholars understanding the role of rent payments within investment decision-making – and more specifically, how investors see rent payments (or non-payment of rent) within their property-level investment decisions. |
| Keywords: | COVID19; housing; Rent; Tenants |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_41&r= |
| By: | Yang Yang; Michael Rehm |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this research is to examine housing price volatility and its determinants in Auckland, a housing market that has experienced an upward trend in real estate prices with fluctuations. This study is different from existing literature by differentiating two types of transactions: leveraged investment and leveraged owner-occupancy. The housing price volatility of these two groups is estimated using GARCH-M models. This study then builds two VAR models as frameworks to conduct Granger causality tests, impulse response analyses and variance decomposition analyses. It is found that the volatility of those two types of sales responds differently to shocks in variables. In addition, a shock in the growth rate of housing prices, especially a negative shock, is the most significant determinant of the housing price volatility for both leveraged investment and leveraged owner-occupancy. The findings of this research bear implications for policy-makers. |
| Keywords: | GARCH-M model; Granger causality test; housing price volatility; VAR model |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_163&r= |
| By: | Marcelo Cajias; Joseph-Alexander Zeitler |
| Abstract: | In the light of the rise of the World Wide Web, there is an intense debate about the potential impact of online user-generated data on classical economics. This paper is one of the first to analyze housing demand on that account by employing a large internet search dataset from a housing market platform. Focusing on the German rental housing market, we employ the variable ‘contacts per listing’ as a measure of demand intensity. Apart from traditional economic methods, we apply state-of-the-art artificial intelligence, the XGBoost, to quantify the factors that lead an apartment to be demanded. As using machine learning algorithms cannot solve the causal relationship between the independent and dependent variable, we make use of eXplainable AI (XAI) techniques to further show economic meanings and inferences of our results. Those suggest that both hedonic, socioeconomic and spatial aspects influence search intensity. We further find differences in temporal dynamics and geographical variations. Additionally, we compare our results to alternative parametric models and find evidence of the superiority of our nonparametric model. Overall, our findings entail some potentially very important implications for both researchers and practitioners. |
| Keywords: | eXtreme Gradient Boosting; Machine Learning; online usergenerated search data; Residential Real Estate |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_70&r= |
| By: | Gabi Troeger-Weiss; Sebastian Winter |
| Abstract: | In the course of the pandemic triggered by the corona virus SARS-CoV-2 (hereinafter referred to as the corona pandemic), new and changed behaviors are appearing in citizen groups. These behaviors are particularly evident in the areas of consumer, mobility and travel behavior. The new behavioral patterns have a significant impact on (contact-intensive) companies, especially in the areas of retail, mobility companies (e.g. airlines, train companies, bus companies, rental car companies, etc.) as well as hotels and restaurants. In the medium and long-term view, permanent and irreversible effects on currently existing offerings and infrastructures could result from low utilization and thus have a lasting impact on and weaken the regional and local economic structure and crucial pillars of adding value at regional and local level. Relevant from a spatial and regional scientific point of view and of great research interest is the question of whether the economic and infrastructures, particularly in rural areas, may be at greater risk than in metropolitan regions and thus structural weaknesses in regions may tighten by the corona pandemic. |
| Keywords: | and travel; citizen groups; consumer spending; Corona pandemic; Mobility; spatial relevance |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_156&r= |
| By: | Chao Ma; Hongbiao Zhao; Hao Zhang |
| Abstract: | We study a new type of securitization, mortgage-receivable-backed securities (MRBSs) issued by real estate developers. Unlike traditional mortgage-backed securities (MBSs), the major risk of underlying assets of MRBSs is payment delay instead of default and prepayment. Using unique loan-level data, we estimate proportional hazard models and detect factors that affect the risk of underlying assets of MRBSs, including bank characteristics, property-loan-household characteristics, local market conditions, and macroeconomic conditions. Especially, we find that the effects of house prices and LTVs on MRBS risk are the opposite of those on traditional MBS risk. Based on the estimates, we simulate cash flows of an underlying-asset pool and analyze the shortfall risk of the corresponding security tranches. We find that the securitization process imposes a natural adverse selection on the underlying assets. Our analyses provide a benchmark for conducting appropriate security designs based on the composition of the underlying asset pool, increase the transparency for investors on the risk pattern of MRBSs, and provide implications for pricing and regulation. |
| Keywords: | Adverse selection; Financial innovation; Mortgage receivable; securitization |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_131&r= |
| By: | Adejimi Adebayo |
| Abstract: | The commercial property market has been hit by e-commerce and COVID-19. These have led to increasing void periods, vacancies and business closures among other market occurrences. These occurrences require market actors to make strategic decisions on the future use of these spaces. One response to understanding the future of commercial property spaces is through analysing the rental value performance and the links (streets) connecting the properties within a defined city boundary. This study analyse street network to compute accessibility index via spatial configuration technique. The computed street data (accessibility integration) and observed changes in rental values for 14,570 commercial property units of a medium-sized UK city were analysed, digitalised and visualised using GIS choropleth maps. The variables (that is, accessibility and changes in rental value) were adopted in ranking property locations into future suitability for commercial purposes. Results show that almost 40% of the investigated properties require change of use for optimum utilisation the property spaces. The study contributes to the application of spatial configuration technique in analysing real property markets for efficient planning and management of urban spaces. |
| Keywords: | Accessibility; Changes in rental value; Commercial property market; GIS |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_114&r= |
| By: | Shotaro Watanabe; Gianluca Marcato; Bing Zhu |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between strategic default in the US residential mortgage market and household portfolio composition after the Great Recession in 2007. Following the definition of strategic default proposed by Gerardi et al. (2018), we find that in addition to the well-known ‘Double Triggers’ – negative equity and payment ability – households’ portfolio composition can also affect their strategic default decision. Holding a larger amount of non-housing durable assets increases the probability of strategic default, while owning more liquid assets can reduce it through two channels: portfolio rebalancing and relative cost of default. |
| Keywords: | Household Finance; Mortgage; Negative Equity; Strategic Default |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_203&r= |
| By: | Radoslaw Trojanek; Micha Guszak; Michal Hebdzynski; Justyna Tanas |
| Abstract: | In this study, we analyzed the impact of COVID-19 on house rents and prices in Warsaw, the capital of Poland. Hedonic indexes indicated a slight increase in prices (ca. 1.2%) and a substantial drop in long-term rents (ca. -7.7%) between March 2020 and December 2020. The largest decline in rents occurred in centrally located neighborhoods, influenced mainly by the inflow of new housing supply from the short-term rental market (the Airbnb Warsaw market shrunk by almost 30% in December 2020 y/y). Using hedonic methods, we highlighted the influence of the shrinking Airbnb market on the drop in long-term rents. The study indicates the elasticity of rents with respect to Airbnb supply, with a 1% change in Airbnb listings leading to a 0.031% change in rents. |
| Keywords: | Airbnb; COVID-19; housing market |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_187&r= |
| By: | Burmaa Jamiyansuren; Paloma Taltavull de La Paz |
| Abstract: | Based on the analysis of the Ger district’s housing market in Ulaanbaatar, the capital city of Mongolia, a study was conducted to determine whether it meets the purchasing power of the population and is based on market demand. The following factors were studied. The first, current housing needs for households in the Ger area, where more than 60 percent of the city's population lives, have been identified. Secondly, their affordability was assessed based on their current living conditions and opportunities. According to the survey, half of the households in the Ger area of Songinokhaikhan district have an average income of MNT 450,000, so there is an urgent need for an Affordable Housing Program to pay the rent and deduct the price from the newly built apartment. 20 percent of all the surveyed households can be connected to the infrastructure, and the remaining thirty percent are willing to take out low-interest loans to live in apartments. However, 20 percent of the surveyed households are interested in connecting to the infrastructure in their yard, and the remaining 30 percent want to live in a low-interest loan. In order to provide housing in Ger areas, there is a lack of low-cost technology to solve infrastructure problems (drinking water and restroom with water supply) and a “Complex Housing Policy” with 3-5 percent loans for low- and middle-income people. |
| Keywords: | Affordable Housing; ger areas; housing market; low and middle income households |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_184&r= |
| By: | Ajzenman, Nicolas (São Paulo School of Economics-FGV); Elacqua, Gregory (Inter-American Development Bank); Marotta, Luana (Inter-American Development Bank); Olsen, Anne Sofie (Novo Nordisk) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we show that order effects operate in the context of high-stakes, real-world decisions: employment choices. We experimentally evaluate a nationwide program in Ecuador that changed the order of teaching vacancies on a job application platform in order to reduce teacher sorting (that is, lower-income students are more likely to attend schools with less qualified teachers). In the treatment arm, the platformshowed hard-tostaff schools (institutions typically located in more vulnerable areas that normally have greater difficulty attracting teachers) first, while in the control group teaching vacancies were displayed in alphabetical order. In both arms, hard-to-staff schools were labeled with an icon and identical information was given to teachers. We find that a teacher in the treatment arm was more likely to apply to hard-to-staff schools, to rank them as their highest priority, and to be assigned to a job vacancy in one of these schools. The effects were not driven by inattentive, altruistic, or less-qualified teachers. Instead, choice overload and fatigue seem to have played a role. The program has thus helped to reduce the unequal distribution of qualified teachers across schools of different socioeconomic backgrounds. |
| Keywords: | order effects, teacher sorting, satisficing |
| JEL: | I24 D91 I25 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14690&r= |
| By: | Borbely, Daniel (University of Dundee); Gehrsitz, Markus (University of Strathclyde); McIntyre, Stuart (University of Strathclyde); Rossi, Gennaro (University of Strathclyde); Roy, Graeme (University of Glasgow) |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of exposure to older, more experienced classroom peers resulting from the widespread use of multi-grade classes in Scottish primary schools. For identification, we exploit that a class-planning algorithm quasi-randomly assigns groups of pupils to multi-grade classes. We find that school-starters benefit from exposure to second-graders in measures of numeracy and literacy. We find no evidence that these gains are driven by smaller class sizes or more parental input. While short-lived, these benefits accrue independent of socioeconomic background, to boys and girls alike, and do not come at the expense of older peers from the preceding cohort. |
| Keywords: | multi-grade classes, peer effects, class-size, cognitive skills |
| JEL: | C36 H52 I21 I26 I28 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14678&r= |
| By: | Benedikt Vogt (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Wolter Hassink (UU); Matteo Millone (DNB); Remco Mocking (Ministry of Finance) |
| Abstract: | Banks often demand collateral for business loans. Apart from business assets, for many small entrepreneurs their own home is the most important security they can offer. The interaction between the housing market and entrepreneurial credit can therefore amplify the consequences of an economic crisis. Because of declining collateral values, the probability of obtaining credit could be lower, making it more difficult to finance entrepreneurial activities. Between 2008 and 2013, real house prices declined by nearly 25 percent in the Netherlands. Such a decline in house prices can amplify the effect of an economic crisis via the credit channel for small entrepreneurs. In the economic literature this effect is known as collateral lending channel. In this study we answer three questions: to what extent did the decrease in house prices impact the incidence of bank credit of small companies? what is the relationship between the housing market status of an entrepreneur and the costs of credit? Is there, as a consequence, an association between the housing market status and entrepreneurial exits? |
| JEL: | G23 L26 R2 R31 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpb:discus:420&r= |
| By: | Evensen, Charlotte B. (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Steen, Frode (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Ulsaker, Simen A. (Telenor research) |
| Abstract: | We analyze 69 entries and relocations by the Norwegian discount variety chain Europris during the period 2016 to 2019. We measure how its location choices affect local grocery stores’ performance, using a diff-in-diff strategy and data from a large Norwegian grocery chain. We combine detailed data on local grocery stores’ sales, traffic and travelling distance to new or relocated Europris stores. We find that entries and relocations have significant effects, suggesting an S-shaped relationship; sufficiently close entries increase local demand since more customers are attracted to the market, but, as the distance increases, the competitive effect of a new discount variety store dominates, and local grocery sales and traffic are reduced. As we move further away, the entry effect is gradually reduced to zero. We show that this empirical finding can be squared with a simple theoretical model. Our results confirm theoretical conjectures on agglomeration forces and competitive effects from local competition. |
| Keywords: | Retail economics; local competition effects; positive agglomeration forces; grocery markets |
| JEL: | L00 |
| Date: | 2021–09–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2021_017&r= |
| By: | Steven C. Bourassa (Florida Atlantic University); Martijn Dröes (University of Amsterdam); Martin Hoesli (University of Geneva - Geneva School of Economics and Management (GSEM); Swiss Finance Institute; University of Aberdeen - Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the pricing of heterogeneous goods in the presence of market segmentation. We use housing as an example. We extend the theoretical hedonic model of Rosen (1974) and show that, in the presence of market segmentation, the hedonic price line is no longer continuous or unique. Using American Housing Survey data for the Miami and Louisville metropolitan areas and a finite mixture estimation approach, we find distinct market segments based on ethnicity, race, and income. |
| Keywords: | market segmentation, product differentiation, hedonic model, finite mixture model. |
| JEL: | E02 R31 O18 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2162&r= |
| By: | Dodin, Majed; Findeisen, Sebastian; Henkel, Lukas; Sachs, Dominik; Schüle, Paul |
| Abstract: | We characterize intergenerational social mobility in Germany using census data on the educational attainment of 526,000 children and their parents' earnings. Our measure of educational attainment is the A-Level degree, a requirement for access to university and the most important qualification in the German education system. On average, a 10 percentile increase in the parental income rank is associated with a 5.2 percentage point increase in the probability to obtain an A-Level. This parental income gradient has not changed for the birth cohorts from 1980 to 1996, despite a large-scale policy of expanding upper secondary education in Germany. At the regional level, there exists substantial variation in mobility estimates. Place effects, rather than sorting of households into different regions, seem to account for most of these geographical differences. Mobile regions are, among other aspects, characterized by high school quality and enhanced possibilities to obtain an A-Level degree in vocational schools. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational Mobility,Educational Attainment,Local Labor Markets |
| JEL: | I24 J62 R23 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cexwps:04&r= |
| By: | Elmar Lang |
| Abstract: | Given the well-developed state of European office property markets, these markets remain still highly under-researched in literature. This paper bridges this gap in literature by presenting the first holistic view on European office price formation with regard to the macroeconomy, monetary policy and real estate idiosyncratic factors. For this purpose, we employ a panel data analysis of 29 European cities covering a time period from 1995q1 to 2020q1 and measure the effects on office capital values. By means of dummy variables we are able to split the time frame into before, during and after the financial crisis and examine whether and how the effects on capital values change. The results reveal that real estate fundamentals such as rental growth or vacancy are found to be most important price drivers. The findings of our regional cluster regression indicate that Germany and Switzerland perform most stable amongst other European markets during and after the GFC. Thus, the perception of Germany being a safe haven market holds true. Finally, we find evidence that office markets react very heterogeneous to different market conditions such as the GFC. Our results are robust to some changes in parameters. This study could help investors in improving their risk assessment as well as their portfolio diversification in European office markets. |
| Keywords: | Capital Values; macroeconomic drivers; Office Properties; Panel Data Analysis |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_30&r= |
| By: | MELIS, Lissa; QUEIROZ, Michell; SÖRENSEN, kenneth |
| Abstract: | In this work we analyse the performance of integrating a large-scale on-demand bus system with a fixed line public transport network in an urban context. Given are a high-speed metro network, a set of real-time requests, a set of bus station locations and a fleet of fixed capacity minibuses. Requests have a set of possible departure/arrival1 bus stations within walking distance of the actual departure/arrival location and have to be served within a certain time window. The aim is to simultaneously (1) decide on the trip type for each passenger (only bus, metro or mixed), (2) route the on-demand buses, (3) assign each passenger to a departure and arrival bus station (bus station assignment), and (4) in the case of a metro-leg in the trip, decide the assigned transfer station(s) and used metro lines (transfer station assignment). We call this problem the integrated on-demand bus routing problem. After presenting a mathematical model, we propose a quick and scalable insertion-based heuristic to solve the problem. The results found by the heuristic are further used to compare the performance of an integrated system, to a system that only uses on-demand buses. It is concluded that the integrated system always performs better regarding the service rate or number of served requests. Depending on the speed and layout of the metro network, also the average user ride time per passenger improves by the integration. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ant:wpaper:2021004&r= |
| By: | Tijl Hendrich (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Jennifer Olsen (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Steven Brakman (RUG); Charles van Marrewijk (UU) |
| Abstract: | The trade literature often treats countries as dimensionless points, which is a strong assumption. Agglomeration or lumpiness of production factors within countries can affect the national pattern of trade. In this paper we analyze comparative advantage patterns for 22 cities and 4 regions for (a selection of) 83 sectors within The Netherlands. Our findings are as follows. First, analysis of the lens condition indicates that the regional concentration of production factors (lumpiness) does not affect the Dutch national trade pattern. Second, despite the fact that the lens condition is verified, comparative advantage patterns across locations differ significantly from each other. Third, the differences across locations of comparative advantage patterns is explained by the interaction of local skill-abundance and sector skill-intensity, in line with the predictions of the factor abundance model. |
| JEL: | F11 F15 R12 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpb:discus:418&r= |
| By: | Martin, Chris; Reeve, Rebecca; McCausland, Ruth; Baldry, Eileen; Burton, Pat; White, Rob; Thomas, Stuart |
| Abstract: | This research examined policies and programs relevant to the housing pathways of ex-prisoners with complex support needs in NSW, Victoria and Tasmania, including what criminal justice costs and benefits result from current housing assistance settings. |
| Date: | 2021–08–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:rnk2c&r= |
| By: | Paloma Taltavull de La Paz; Magdalena Teska; Francisco Juárez Tárraga; Raúl Pérez |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the differences on housing poverty across EU countries. By using EU-Silc data base, the metrics of housing poverty are estimated by country during 2005-2019. The paper analyses different aspects of housing poverty as the incidence, the relationship with poverty, the tenure effect on this type of poverty and the relationship with the household type. By using panel data methodology, the paper explores the housing-related reasons to explain the poverty likelihood in the 27 EU countries. |
| Keywords: | Housing Poverty; Panel Method |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_71&r= |
| By: | Mateusz Omal |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to test for overall and cluster convergence of housing rents across Polish provincial capitals and to identify drivers of convergence club formation. In order to achieve the goal of the study, several novel convergence tests were used, including the Kong et al. (2019) and Phillips and Sul (2007) approaches. Moreover, convergence club analysis was carried out in four different configurations, varying in the technique of trend component extraction from the data. In particular, three well-known methods of time series decomposition were used, i.e. the Hodrick-Prescott, Butterworth and Christiano-Fitzgerald filters, as well as the most recent boosted Hodrick-Prescott filter. The results indicated that rental prices across the studied cities do not share a common path in the long run. It is possible, however, to identify convergence clubs where rents are moving towards a club-specific steady state. Detailed analysis of the structure of estimated clusters showed that data filtering using the boosted Hodrick-Prescott method leads to the most reliable allocation of cities to convergence clubs. Moreover, the logit models estimation results revealed that the likelihood of any two cities belonging to the same convergence club depends mainly on similar levels of unemployment rate and tourist traffic. |
| Keywords: | convergence club; housing market; rental prices; stochastic convergence |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_7&r= |
| By: | Ernest Miguelez; Andrea Morrison; |
| Abstract: | How do regions enter new and distant technological fields? Who is triggering this process? This work addresses these compelling research questions by investigating the role of migrant inventors in the process of technological diversification. Immigrant inventors can indeed act as carriers of knowledge across borders and influence the direction of technological change. We test these latter propositions by using an original dataset of immigrant inventors in the context of European regions during the period 2003-2011. Our findings show that: immigrant inventors generate positive local knowledge spillovers; they help their host regions to develop new technological specialisations; they trigger a process of unrelated diversification. Their contribution comes via two main mechanisms: immigrant inventors use their own personal knowledge (knowledge creation); they import knowledge from their home country to the host region (knowledge transfer). Their impact is maximised when their knowledge is not recombined with the local one (in mixed teams of inventors), but it is reused (in teams made by only migrant inventors). Our work contributes to the existing literature of regional diversification by providing fresh evidence of unrelated diversification for European regions and by identifying important agents of structural change. It also contributes to the literature of migration and innovation by adding fresh evidence on European regions and by unveiling some of the mechanisms of immigrants’ knowledge transmission. |
| Keywords: | patents, migration, technological diversification, relatedness, Europe |
| JEL: | O30 F20 F60 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2125&r= |
| By: | Niels Kuiper; Mark Van Duijn; Arno Van der Vlist |
| Abstract: | Shopping malls have revolutionized the retail landscape by their ability to efficiently internalize retail externalities. Based on anecdotal evidence and studies on consumer behavior, we expect that the location of a tenant within a mall can be an important determinant for the extent to which this tenant benefits from the presence of retail externalities in the mall. In this paper we examine this empirically. We make use of a unique dataset that contains 1,170 shopping mall tenants and their monthly sales numbers. These tenants were present in 9 Turkish shopping malls over a 4-year period. We specifically focus on the retail externalities generated by the presence of anchor tenants and the presence of competitors. Preliminary results suggest that anchor presence is an important determinant of non-anchor sales. The size of this externality seems to be dependent on the type of products the non-anchor tenant sells. We also find that the positive externality generated by anchors quickly decreases when distance to the anchor store increases. This seems to confirm our hypotheses that retail externalities have a spatial pattern within malls. Our results for the externalities generated by competitors show large heterogeneity dependent on the product category of the tenant for both the sign and size of the externality and its spatial pattern. |
| Keywords: | Retail Externalities; Sales; Shopping malls; Spatial Variation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_205&r= |
| By: | Federico Revelli; Tsung-Sheng Tsai; Roberto Zotti |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits the multi-tiered structure of personal income taxation in Italy to investigate within-tier (horizontal) and between-tiers (vertical and diagonal) fiscal externalities. Estimation of an unrestricted income tax reaction function on municipalities located at internal regional borders using o¤-border Wald-type grouping variables as well as the staggered schedule of mayoral elections as instruments for endogenous spatial lags reveals strong positive spatial dependence in municipal tax rates. On the other hand, there is no evidence of a response of municipal tax rates to regional tax policies, suggesting that border discontinuity estimators that rely on consolidated spatial specifications (lower-plus-upper-tier tax rates) impose restrictions on the parameters of the reaction function that are unwarranted in these circumstances. |
| Keywords: | fiscal externalities; income taxation; grouping instrumental variable; border discontinuity estimator |
| JEL: | H24 H71 H73 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9276&r= |
| By: | Qiulin Ke; Shijun Jia |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether and the extent to which buyer’s characteristics affect housing transaction prices. Using the transaction data of existing apartments from 2014 to 2017 in Guangzhou, China, our results show that buyer’s locality, motivation and financial ability affect the transaction prices. Non-local buyers pay a premium. First-time buyers gain a discount. Experienced repeat buyers for upgrading pay a premium. We also find that buyer’s financial ability affects purchasing power and transaction prices. The buyers paying the acquisition through mortgage gain a higher discount or pay a lower premium than their counterparts paying in cash. Internet using itself won’t affect transaction price. When it is combined with buyer’s other characteristics, the buyers using internet to obtain the property information have information advantage over the ones using tradition method and gain a higher discount or pay a lower premium than their counterparts using traditional method. This finding is important for market participates and regulators to improve information efficiency and transparency through technology. |
| Keywords: | Buyer's characteristics; China; Housing transaction price; Information Asymmetry |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_198&r= |
| By: | Jan Eeckhout; Christoph Hedtrich; Roberto Pinheiro |
| Abstract: | We show that differential IT investment across cities has been a key driver of job and wage polarization since the 1980s. Using a novel data set, we establish two stylized facts: IT investment is highest in firms in large and expensive cities, and the decline in routine cognitive occupations is most prevalent in large and expensive cities. To explain these facts, we propose a model mechanism where the substitution of routine workers by IT leads to higher IT adoption in large cities due to a higher cost of living and higher wages. We estimate the spatial equilibrium model to trace out the effects of IT on the labor market between 1990 and 2015. We find that the fall in IT prices explains 50 percent of the rising wage gap between routine and non-routine cognitive jobs. The decline in IT prices also accounts for 28 percent of the shift in employment away from routine cognitive towards non-routine cognitive jobs. Moreover, our estimates show that the impact of IT is uneven across space. Expensive locations have seen a stronger displacement of routine cognitive jobs and a larger widening of the wage gap between routine and non-routine cognitive jobs. |
| Keywords: | IT investment; Job Polarization; Spatial Sorting; Urban Wage Premium |
| JEL: | D21 J24 J31 R23 |
| Date: | 2021–09–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:93021&r= |
| By: | Yao Pan (George Washington University); Jessica Leight (International Food Policy Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effects of positive shocks to export-oriented industries following China's accession to the World Trade Organization on human capital investment in urban and rural areas. Exploiting cross-county variations in the reduction in export tariff uncertainty both locally and at plausible migration destinations, we find that youth reaching matriculation age post-accession in counties experiencing a larger export shock show a lower probability of enrolling in high school. In urban areas, this effect is driven by local shocks, while in rural areas, it is primarily driven by shocks at migration destinations. Urban youth show evidence of a deterioration in labor market outcomes linked to declining matriculation rates, while there is no evidence of significant labor market effects for rural youth. |
| Keywords: | Export Shock, Human Capital Attainment, Urban-rural Inequality, China |
| JEL: | F14 F16 J24 O15 O18 O19 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2021-14&r= |
| By: | Kulenkampff, Gabriele; Ockenfels, Martin; Plückebaum, Thomas; Zoz, Konrad; Zuloaga, Gonzalo |
| Abstract: | According to the EU policy, a future-proof broadband supply for all European households is to be achieved by 2025. There is already a wide range of fibre deployment in Europe. However, the expansion of fibre-based access networks in Europe to date has taken place mainly in large cities. In other areas, the expansion is sluggish or non-existent. As a result, a digital divide between urban and rural areas in Europe is arising. The spatial disparity in fibre roll-out is often justified by market stake holders with significant regional cost differences. In the absence of private-sector investment, government subsidy programmes are often used to improve broadband coverage. Thus, politicians have to deal with the question about the level of investment required and the spatial distribution of subsidy needs. In this paper, we will therefore investigate the question of how significant the heterogeneity in the costs of Very High Capacity (VHC) networks in Germany actually is and whether and how the costs for Very High Capacity (VHC) networks differ between urban and rural regions. In the first part of the paper, we will analyse the regional cost differences of access network areas on the basis of bottom-up calculated investment figures. In the second part of the paper, we establish statistical estimation models that explain these regional cost differences. For this purpose, we use publicly available data. As a reference value for regionally differentiated costs of Very High Capacity (VHC) access networks, we use the results of a detailed bottom-up modelling of an FTTH network carried out for the whole of Germany. The model uses georeferenced household and business location data and optimizes the access network routes along the street network in a bottom-up manner. This model allows us to determine regionally differentiated FTTH investment at the level of access areas. By matching this data with the EU-wide standardized EUROSTAT urban/rural typology classification (predominantly urban, intermediate and predominantly rural), we determine whether and to which extent significant regional cost differences can be found in Germany applying these classifications. One focus is on determining the spread of investment requirements, especially among rural areas. Based on our experience, these areas exhibit the lowest economic viability of a network roll-out and, thus, the highest need for funding. By using statistical indicators, we analyse the suitability of the EUROSTAT classification as a differentiation criterion for regional cost differences. Here, we are particularly interested in whether the areas defined as rural form a sufficiently homogeneous group, and whether they show comparable levels of required investment. Our findings confirm that the differentiation criterion used, namely EUROSTAT urban/rural typology classification, is not satisfactory in measuring regional cost differences. It cannot sufficiently account for a large share of observable differences in fibre-based access network costs. Since it is desirable to answer questions regarding the required funding for selected regions based on publicly available data, we apply regression models to identify alternative influencing factors on the basis of publicly available data, in order to better explain observable regional cost differences. Here, we find that a handful of geographical factors are capable of explaining 95% of the geographical differences in fibre investment requirements, the most relevant being the number of connection lines, the number of households per kilometre of road in built-up areas, the main road length per built-up area and the share of built-up area in relation to overall area. In the last part of the analysis, we examine whether the derived results are also meaningful in a political and regulatory context. Discussions about the necessity of promoting high-speed networks usually take place at the level of local authorities. Therefore, in a final step, we address the question whether the statistical relationships derived from the regression model at the level of access areas also apply at a higher aggregated, i.e. NUTS3, level. In summary, we show that for Germany, classifications based on subscriber density exhibit a significant spread in the investment costs of Very High Capacity (VHC) access networks, which is most pronounced in rural clusters. Statistical analyses using regression models can improve the result if geographical elements of the settlement structure are considered in the analysis. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb21:238033&r= |
| By: | Daniel Auer (University of Mannheim); Johannes S. Kunz (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the intergenerational effect of communication barriers on child health at birth using a natural experiment in Switzerland. We leverage the fact that refugees arriving in Switzerland originate from places that have large shares of French (or Italian) speakers for historical reasons and upon arrival are by law randomly allocated across states that are dominated by different languages but subject to the same jurisdiction. Our findings based on administrative records of all refugee arrivals and birth events between 2010 and 2017 show that children born to mothers who were exogenously allocated to an environment that matched their linguistic heritage are on average 72 gram heavier (or 2.2%) than those that were allocated to an unfamiliar language environment. The differences are driven by growth rather than gestation and manifest in a 2.9 percentage point difference in low birth weight incidence. We find substantial dose-response relationships in terms of language exposure in both, the origin country and the destination region. Moreover, French (Italian) exposed refugees only benefit from French-(Italian-) speaking destinations, but not vice versa. Contrasting the language match with co-ethnic networks, we find that high quality networks are acting as a substitute rather than a complement. |
| Keywords: | Infant health, language proficiency, refugee allocation , networks |
| JEL: | F22 I12 J13 J24 J61 J62 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mhe:chemon:2021-05&r= |
| By: | Jufri Marzuki; Graeme Newell |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 crisis in 2020 has had a major global impact on business and society; this includes commercial real estate. This has seen the global real estate markets significantly impacted at every level in 2020; this includes capital flows to real estate in the global markets. This has resulted in only $759 B invested in income-producing real estate in 2020. Using the Real Capital Analytics database, this paper examines the real estate capital flows to 32 global markets in 2020, compared against previous years (2019 and 2015-2019). Analyses are also presented at a regional level, major city level and by property type, with specific real estate capital flow pathways, investor levels and major deals examined. The ongoing strategic real estate investor implications are also highlighted. |
| Keywords: | Capital flows; COVID-19; Global markets; real estate |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_130&r= |
| By: | Pinchbeck, Edward W.; Roth, Sefi; Szumilo, Nikodem; Vanino, Enrico |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the housing market to examine the costs of indoor air pollution. We focus on radon, a common indoor air pollutant which is the leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. For identification, we exploit a natural experiment whereby a risk map update in England induces exogenous variation in published pollution risk levels. We find a significant negative relationship between changes in published pollution risk levels and residential property prices. Interestingly, we do not find a symmetric effect for decreasing risk. We also show that the update of the risk map led higher socio-economic groups (SEGs) to move away from affected areas, attracting lower SEG residents via lower prices. Finally, we develop a new theoretical framework to account for preference based sorting, which allows us to calculate that the average willingness to pay to avoid the risk of indoor air pollution is 1.6% of a property price. |
| Keywords: | indoor air pollution; neighbourhood sorting; house prices; risk information; radon |
| JEL: | R21 Q53 H23 |
| Date: | 2021–09–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111853&r= |
| By: | Kerem Yavuz Arslanli |
| Abstract: | In the first section, we investigate the outlook of the Turkish real estate market in the Pre-COVID era. The fundamentals were found to be not changing dramatically from previous studies. Cyclical credit growth patterns are detected as a matter of Government intervention to the markets. n the second part, we focus on credit expansion that led to the residential market boom. 1-year non-payment option made the mortgage market appealing. Other non-residential markets are in trouble which has ties to foreign consumption, especially the EU. In the third part of the paper, we tried to forecast how the market will perform under covid. The fast learning curve was expected to be on the side of tackle covid, but the 3rd wave becomes more severe and hits the casualties to a new high level. Office and retail are most affected and may not recover sooner than residential. Industry and logistics look very promising, but the consumption declines, and the new normal set the expenditures even low. |
| Keywords: | COVID19; Credit Driven Growth; Real Estate Markets; Residential |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_226&r= |
| By: | Kwame Addae-Dapaah |
| Abstract: | The world’s housing affordability “epidemic” has vindicated Charles Abrams that as far as housing is concerned, “the whole world is underdeveloped”. Notwithstanding all the advances in knowledge and technology, a solution has thus far proved elusive. The paper takes a holistic view to discuss the multifaceted nature of the housing affordability problem to conclude that the insuperability of the problem is buttressed by the vested interests of the advantaged power brokers. The root-cause of the problem is poverty. The problem can be solved if we have the will to make economics serve mankind (humanomics) instead of mankind serving economics. |
| Keywords: | Housing Affordability; Market economy; Political will; Vested interest |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_208&r= |
| By: | Lopez, Rigoberto A.; Khanal, Binod |
| Keywords: | Marketing, Agribusiness, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:313346&r= |
| By: | Lopez, Rigoberto A.; Khanal, Binod |
| Keywords: | Marketing, Agribusiness, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312700&r= |
| By: | Lu Zhang; Lennart Stangenberg (RUG); Sjors van Wickeren (EUR) |
| Abstract: | Do energy labels contain extra information that buyers cannot observe themselves? Which labeling scheme is more effective: a voluntary or a mandatory one? In this paper we examine the information value of voluntary and mandatory energy labels using administrative data on all transactions in the Dutch residential housing market. Employing a combination of hedonic price models, matching and a sharp Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD), we show that voluntary labels introduced in the period 2008-2014 contain limited information value. The information value of mandatory labels that are adopted since 2015 is less clear-cut. We observe that better-labeled dwellings were transacted with significant price premiums before obtaining labels. This implies that at least part of the premiums cannot be attributed to mandatory labels. |
| JEL: | R38 R58 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpb:discus:413&r= |
| By: | Navarrete-hernandez, Pablo; Mace, Alan; Karlsson, Jacob; Holman, Nancy; Zorloni, Davide Alberto |
| Abstract: | The urgent need for housing in London will be met almost exclusively through building on brownfield sites. While Inner and suburban Outer London are both home to a range of brownfield sites, the politics of delivering new housing varies between the two. First, Outer London is built at significantly lower density and therefore densification has a more noticeable impact. Second, many residents in Outer London value living at lower density and will see densification as undermining that which they value. Third, homeownership is more common in Outer London and as housing is the most significant asset for most homeowners any threat to its value is likely to be strongly resisted. Our research tests whether design can positively impact both the perception and acceptability of densification. For this, we run a randomised control trial presenting 939 Outer London residents with simulated images representing different design features. We find that the effects of building design are limited and relate almost exclusively to low and medium density options. Our research shows that vernacular design can make some increase in density acceptable but for significantly higher density the influence of design declines. As density increases, the perception and acceptability of density are more influenced by people’s views on, for example, the extent of London’s housing crisis. This indicates that planners and politicians must reach beyond design and seek to better inform and persuade residents about housing need if the impasse on densification is to be overcome. |
| Keywords: | density; housing crisis; housing design; London; suburbs |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–08–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111820&r= |
| By: | Raoul van Maarseveen |
| Abstract: | Despite the existence of a large urban-rural education gap in many countries, little attention has been paid whether cities enjoy a comparative advantage in the production of human capital. Using Dutch administrative data, this paper finds that conditional on family characteristics and cognitive ability, children who grow up in urban regions consistently attain higher levels of human capital compared to children in rural regions. The elasticity of university attendance with respect to population density is 0.07, which is robust across a wide variety of specifications. Hence, the paper highlights an alternative channel to explain the rise of the city. . |
| JEL: | I20 J24 R10 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpb:discus:412&r= |
| By: | Santiago Tobón Zapata; Daniel Mejía; Ervyn Norza; Martín Vanegas-Arias |
| JEL: | K42 O17 E26 J48 C93 |
| Date: | 2021–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000122:019514&r= |
| By: | Saf Ahim; Alan Saucier |
| Abstract: | This treatise is a by product of long research inteding to study the urban form in the United States in the broad context of sustainability. Articulating its urban and suburban communities, history and type, the outcome of the anaylsis lead to reaching a model that cohesively conciles both in a harmoniose overall. The analysis takes a genealogical approach establishing the past and present context of urban and suburban communities. As syentsis, it reaches a group of principals that lead to a new paradigm, one that can serve as foundation for a cohesive and sustainable regional and national strategy. The design and planning of the proposed new paradigm, a semi-urban model tightly connected to a major population center, take into consideration data and elements such as densities, architectural types, urban types, transportation models, sustainability thresholds and state of art components such as electronic applications (apps), and explores their potential use in an urban and semi-urban context. While we are perfectly aware of the recently observed health risks associated with urban living, we envision nonetheless that such risks to be dissoluble through the proposed strategy, by reincrating existing urban building types through new health conscious building regulations and the insertion of highly desirable open space urbansitically and architecturally. |
| Keywords: | Electronic Urban Applications (apps); Modern Transportation in a Sustainable Metropolis.; Rebirth of Cities and Suburban Communities; Sustainable Urbanism in the United States |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_5&r= |
| By: | Nico Ravanilla; Allen Hicken |
| Abstract: | Why are the poor susceptible to clientelism, and what factors shield them from the influence of vote buying? We explore the role of both formal and informal social networks in shaping the likelihood of being targeted with private inducements. We argue that when the poor lack access to formal social networks, they become increasingly reliant on vote buying channelled through informal networks. To test our theory, we build the informal, family-based network linkages between voters and local politicians spanning a city in the Philippines. |
| Keywords: | Social networks, Poor, vote-buying, Clientelism, Voting behaviour, Philippines |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2021-144&r= |
| By: | Hadziomerspahic, Amila |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Research Methods/Statistical Methods, Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312835&r= |
| By: | Carlos Madeira |
| Abstract: | Families’ human capital investments depend on beliefs about their children’s performance. I build a dynamic model of expectation formation to show how agents use both observable and unobservable information to predict their school scores. The model shows parents and students have substantial knowledge of unobservable factors affecting their performance, especially in middle and high school. Families are overconfident towards expecting higher grades and expectation formation differs by race. Families’ ability to predict future scores improved substantially during middle school due to several factors: lower bias and variance of the prediction errors, and a better use of past scores as predictors. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:919&r= |
| By: | Kar, Armita; Carrel, Andre L.; Miller, Harvey J.; Le, Huyen T. K. (The Ohio State University) |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted public transit services through a combination of plummeting ridership during the lockdown and subsequent budget cuts. This study investigates the equity impacts of reductions in accessibility due to public transit service cuts during COVID-19 and their association with urban sprawl. We evaluated accessibility to essential services such as grocery stores and both urgent and non-urgent health care across 22 cities across the United States in three phases during 2020: pre-lockdown, lockdown, and post-lockdown. We estimated the spatio-temporal coverage of transit service during the peak and off-peak periods in each phase. We found stark disparities in food and health care access for various socio-economic groups. Economically disadvantaged and suburban neighborhoods were more likely to lose food and health care access by public transit during COVID-19. In particular, transit service cuts worsened accessibility for population groups with multiple social vulnerabilities, such as low-income workers with zero vehicle ownership, poor households living in urban neighborhoods, and non-white populations residing in suburban neighborhoods. Moreover, our study suggests that sprawled cities experienced greater losses in access to food and health care during COVID-19 than compact cities, highlighting the influence of urban form on the functionality of transit services during crises. |
| Date: | 2021–09–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:5xerm&r= |
| By: | Tuna Tasan-Kok; Sara Özogul; Andre Legarza |
| Abstract: | Property markets are social constructs. However, understanding the complex behavioral patterns of property market actors is equally complex. Moreover, the analytical frameworks and fine-grained empirical applications that center around the characteristics and diversities of property market actors are rare. To fill this gap, in this presentation we put forward a multidimensional framework we developed to read the changing landscape of property investors. Our framework combines investor’s scale of operation, the utilized type of capital, the ownership composition of the investment body or company through their locational and strategic behavior. Establishing a methodology and a frame of analysis to understand what we call 'actor landscapes', we aim to provide an alternative and actor-centered framework to systematically unpack the effects of property investment market shifts on urban built environments. We argue that changing actor landscapes have tangible effects for cities as they channel investments into the urban built environment. Quantitative data analysis of investment transactions and investor profiles, and qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews with a wide range of property investors are utilized to examine property markets between three distinct periods defined by market shifts in Amsterdam before and after the 2008 financial crisis. |
| Keywords: | actor landscapes; Amsterdam; multidimensional analysis; Property Market |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_58&r= |
| By: | Olayiwola Oladiran; Ajayi Saheed; Sunmoni Adesola |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the relationship between the potential demand for purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) properties and their online displayed attributes. Using data from 12 major UK cities, we analyse the effect of the online displayed property information on the popularity score of a PBSA. The results suggest that PBSAs’ tangible and non-tangible attributes are important to students in their online accommodation search, although, these attributes vary in impact. The study also reveals that failure to display key information of a PBSA may make the property less attractive. These insights are valuable in developing student accommodation investment, development and management strategies. |
| Keywords: | online search; Operational real estate; proptech; student accommodation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_196&r= |
| By: | Cristelli, Gabriele; Lissoni, Francesco |
| Abstract: | We study the innovation effects of the Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons (AFMP), signed by Switzerland and the EU in 1999. Using geocoded patent data, complemented by matched inventor-immigrant-census records, we identify a large number of cross-border inventors (CBIs), commuters from neighbouring countries working in Swiss R&D labs. We show that, during the AFMP implementation phase, the influx of CBIs increased differentially across regions at different driving distances from the border, causing a 24% increase in patents, mostly due to large and medium patent holders (as opposed to very large ones) and to inventor teams mixing CBIs and natives. We do not detect any adverse effect on native inventors and show that Swiss incumbent inventors collaborating with CBIs increased their productivity. Our evidence suggests complementarity between CBIs’ and Swiss incumbents’ knowledge assets. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Innovation, Patents, Inventors, Free Movement of Persons |
| JEL: | F22 J61 O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:107433&r= |
| By: | Nong, Huifu (Guangdong University of Finance); Zhang, Qing (Hunan University); Zhu, Hongjia (Jinan University); Zhu, Rong (Flinders University) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the causal impact of China's targeted poverty alleviation program on the academic achievement of students from poor households. We use the longitudinal academic records of a cohort of students from all middle schools in a nationally designated poor county in China. Using the difference-in-differences approach, we show that targeted poverty alleviation improves the scholastic performance of girls and their achievement rank among peer students. However, we find no such empirical evidence for boys. Our findings suggest that the new anti-poverty program in China has the potential to ameliorate the intergenerational transmission of low socioeconomic status to girls by promoting their human capital accumulation. |
| Keywords: | targeted poverty alleviation, academic outcomes, middle school, China |
| JEL: | I21 I32 I38 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14674&r= |
| By: | Fernanda Antunes |
| Abstract: | Flexible workspace providers have disrupted the traditional office market by offering space with different levels of curated services available to hire on a membership basis. Initially considered a solution for freelancers and start-ups, the current market of flexible workspace has grown in the number of operators, size of take-ups and clientele, which now also includes large corporations. Despite the growth, the flexible workspace business model raises concern, along with the covenant strength of its operators. The great initial expenses flexible workspace providers incur to fit out space, associated with a volatile revenue stream obtained from subletting the space in short-term and flexible memberships might trigger landlords to put a risk premium on top of the rent. On the other hand, it can be argued that housing flexible workspaces is a way to add an amenity to the building and capture end-users that would not be reached by a conventional lease. Furthermore, flexible workspace providers usually make more substantial lease commitments, both in terms of size and length, which might lead landlords to apply a discount to such tenants. This study investigates whether flexible workspace providers pay a higher, equivalent, or lower rents than other tenants within the same building by comparing their effective rent using data from the London market between 2011 and 2021. The results of the analysis suggest that there is a negative statistically and economically significant difference in the effective rents paid by flexible workspace providers in comparison to their peers. |
| Keywords: | commercial real estate; Coworking; Flexible workspace; rental prices |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_154&r= |
| By: | Löwe, Monique (University of Hagen); Rinne, Ulf (IZA); Sonnabend, Hendrik (Fern Universität Hagen) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the link between the subject choices of German students in upper secondary school and teacher gender when these choices are taken. Our results corroborate the hypothesis that teacher gender matters in this regard, and they indicate that girls respond more strongly than boys to same-sex role models. While the probability to choose German as an advanced course in upper secondary school increases to a rather similar (i.e., symmetric) extent for both girls and boys when having a same-sex teacher in this subject in grade 10, teacher gender matters only for girls with respect to choosing math on the advanced level. |
| Keywords: | gender, education, STEM, subject choices |
| JEL: | I21 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14666&r= |
| By: | Florian Schoner; Lukas Mergele; Larissa Zierow |
| Abstract: | Numerous countries require teachers to assign comportment grades rating students’ social and work behavior in the classroom. However, the impact of such policies on student outcomes remains unknown. We exploit the staggered introduction of comportment grading across German federal states to estimate its causal effect on students’ school-to-work transitions as well as cognitive and non-cognitive abilities. Analyzing census data, household surveys, and nationwide student assessments, we show that comportment grading does not meaningfully affect these outcomes and rule out large effect sizes. Our results are consistent with these grades being insufficiently salient for students to alter actual student behaviors. |
| Keywords: | school reforms, report cards, labor market transition, student achievement |
| JEL: | D91 I21 I28 J24 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9275&r= |
| By: | Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. (University of Sydney); Ho, Tiffany (ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR)); Salamanca, Nicolás (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research) |
| Abstract: | We use quasi-experimental variation in the timing of national standardized test-score reports to estimate the causal impact of giving parents objective information about children's academic achievement. Releasing test scores leads to more modest perceptions of academic achievement and reduced school satisfaction. The use of private tutoring is increased, while extracurricular activities are reduced. Examining the underlying mechanisms, we show that is it public-school parents and parents of children receiving unexpectedly "bad" test scores who alter their perceptions. Learning that a child scores above the national average raises perceived academic achievement and time devoted to education, while reducing leisure time. |
| Keywords: | parental investments, test-score information, parental perceptions, overconfidence |
| JEL: | I21 J13 D10 D90 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14663&r= |
| By: | Signe Abrahamsen (University of Bergen); Rita Ginja (University of Bergen); Julie Riise (University of Bergen) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new evidence that preventive health care services delivered at schools and provided at a relatively low cost have positive and lasting impacts. We use variation from a 1999-reform in Norway that induced substantial differences in the availability of health professionals across municipalities and cohorts. In municipalities with one fewer school nurse per 1,000 school-age children before the reform there was an increase in the availability of nurses of 35% from the pre- to the post-reform period, attributed to the policy change. The reform reduced teenage pregnancies and increased college attendance for girls. It also reduced the take-up of welfare benefits by ages 26 and 30 and increased the planned use of primary and specialist health care services at ages 25-35, without impacts on emergency room admissions. The reform also improved the health of newborns of affected new mothers and reduced the likelihood of miscarriages. |
| Keywords: | school health services, teenage pregnancy, welfare dependence, utilization of health services, health status |
| JEL: | H75 I10 I12 I28 I30 I38 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2021-044&r= |
| By: | Maalsen, Sophia; Wolifson, Peta; Rogers, Dallas; Nelson, Jacqueline; Buckle, Caitlin |
| Abstract: | This research examines discrimination and existing policy, law and practice in Australia’s private rental sector including the impact of informal tenancies and the increasing role of digital technologies. |
| Date: | 2021–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:jdycg&r= |
| By: | Hübler, Olaf (Leibniz University of Hannover) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the regional differences in the spread of COVID-19 infections in Germany. A machine learning selection procedure is used to reduce variables from a pool of potential influencing variables. The empirical analysis shows that both regional structural variables and regionally aggregated personality traits are significant for the different corona spread. The latter characteristics express differences in mentality between the federal states. The north-east of the country shows a lower degree of affectedness. Regions with a high proportion of migrants show a higher incidence than others. If personality traits are neglected, the migrants' influence is overestimated. With school education and the risk of poverty, two further important regional characteristics are identified. Federal states that have a disproportionately high share of the population with low school education tend to have fewer COVID-19 cases. With regard to poverty, no clear statement can be made. The more the population tends to be responsible towards fellow human beings, the higher is the risk of a more pronounced spread. Where there is a tendency towards altruism, which consists of helping other people, a higher level of COVID-19 infections is revealed. A significant positive correlation between infections and testing is shown by the estimates. The link between vaccinations and the number of infections is less clear. Across the three corona waves,significant changes emerge. This relates in particular to the proportion of migrants and the proportion of families at risk of poverty. The effects decrease over the course of the pandemic. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, states, regional characteristics, personality traits, vaccinations, testing, machine learning, cluster-robust estimation, unobserved characteristics, heterogeneity, corona waves, structural break |
| JEL: | C21 C23 I12 R12 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14669&r= |
| By: | Batinti, Alberto; Andriani, Luca; Filippetti, Andrea |
| Abstract: | Citizens’ attitudes and reactions to policymakers’ decisions depend on several factors, including informal institutions. The novelty of this paper is to use social capital as a moderator factor to shed light on the relationship between fiscal policies and electoral outcomes. We investigate this relationship using a sample of 6,000 Italian municipalities over the period 2003-2012 and use a Conditional Logit Matching model comparing incumbents to challengers’ characteristics within each election. We find that social capital increases the odds of the re-election of incumbent mayors who adopted a local fiscal policy more oriented towards capital investment (versus current expenditure) and towards property tax (versus income surcharge). This suggests that social capital encourages governmental functions and public policies improving long-term economic commitments, institutional transparency, and accountability. It also shows that decentralization works relatively better with social capital. |
| Keywords: | social capital; municipal elections; local government fiscal policies |
| JEL: | E6 |
| Date: | 2019–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:100438&r= |
| By: | Hakan Yilmazkuday (Department of Economics, Florida International University) |
| Abstract: | Using daily census block group level data from the U.S., this paper investigates the welfare costs of staying at home due to COVID-19 across socioeconomic and demographic groups. The investigation is based on an economic model of which implications suggest that the welfare costs of staying at home increase with the stay-at-home probabilities of individuals. The empirical results provide evidence for significant heterogeneity across census block groups regarding the welfare effects of staying at home. This heterogeneity is further used to obtain measures of welfare changes for different socioeconomic and demographic groups at the national level. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Coronavirus, Staying at Home, Welfare, Demographics |
| JEL: | I14 I31 R11 R13 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fiu:wpaper:2116&r= |
| By: | Francesca Crucitti (European Commission - JRC); Nicholas-Joseph Lazarou (European Commission - JRC); Philippe Monfort (European Commission - DG REGIO); Simone Salotti (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | We employ the spatial dynamic general equilibrium model RHOMOLO to estimate the economic impact of the 2021-2027 Cohesion Policy in Bulgarian NUTS-2 regions and analyse the implications for growth and development in Bulgaria. The main investment areas covered by the policy fall into the following five fields of intervention: aid to the private sector, research and development, transport infrastructure, other infrastructure, and human capital. They are characterised by a varying degree of positive demand and supply side effects on regional and aggregate development, which, together with the level of the shocks, determine the impact on GDP. We find that a projected €10.9 billion of Cohesion Policy funding would increase Bulgarian GDP by 3.4% at the end of the implementation period and by 2.4% ten years later. Our results suggest that there is no systematic equity-efficiency trade-off in Bulgaria which mainly arises as the consequence of low spillovers in the capital city region versus the strictly higher spillovers observed in the rest of the country’s regions. We conclude that a balanced Cohesion Policy portfolio would foster a high impact on national GDP, maintain a high intensity of spillovers and reduce regional disparities in Bulgaria. |
| Keywords: | RHOMOLO, Cohesion Policy, regional growth, regional development, Bulgaria |
| JEL: | C68 R13 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:termod:202106&r= |
| By: | Carina Kaiser; Julia Freybote |
| Abstract: | The emergence of e-commerce over the last two decades has substantially disrupted the business of retailers operating physical stores. As a result, the question arises as to how e commerce in turn affects pricing of retail real estate assets and thus investors should be concerned with e-commerce. Using return series data of shopping centers from the NCREIF property index for the period of 2000 Q1 to 2018 Q4, we find that e commerce sales can predict changes in retail real estate market returns. In particular, an increase in the share of e commerce sales to total sales results in lower capital and total returns for retail real estate. In contrast, no impact on income returns was found. Alongside revealing that e commerce has informative value for investors, this study contributes to the broader literature on asset pricing in commercial real estate markets while bridges this gap in the retail real estate literature. |
| Keywords: | Asset Pricing; E-commerce; Institutional Investors; Retail real estate |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_150&r= |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Social innovations have proven to be valuable in identifying, designing and implementing new solutions to social and environmental problems. The recent COVID-19 outbreak has put a spotlight on the potential of social innovation as a resilience mechanism, including for local development. This paper presents a preliminary framework for analysing social innovation ecosystems at the local level. It can help policy makers to better understand the different concepts around social innovation, and to develop policies to support social innovation and its implementation. The first section considers the features of social innovation and the benefits it can bring. The second section provides an analytical framework for social innovation at the local level. The final section sets a number of guidelines that support the implementation of social innovation ecosystems at local level, including examples of specific policy instruments. |
| Keywords: | local ecosystem, measurement of social innovation, social economy, social entrepreneurship, social innovation |
| JEL: | O35 L30 L31 D04 I3 |
| Date: | 2021–09–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:cfeaaa:2021/06-en&r= |
| By: | Pierre Azoulay (MIT Sloan School of Management, and NBER); Benjamin Jones (Northwestern University, and NBER); J. Daniel Kim (University of Pennsylvania); Javier Miranda (Friedrich-Schiller University Jena and Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)) |
| Abstract: | Immigrants can expand labor supply and compete for jobs with native-born workers. But immigrants may also start new firms, expanding labor demand. This paper uses U.S. administrative data and other data sources to study the role of immigrants in entrepreneurship. We ask how often immigrants start companies, how many jobs these firms create, and how firms founded by native-born individuals compare. A simple model provides a measurement framework for addressing the dual roles of immigrants as founders and workers. The findings suggest that immigrants act more as "job creators" than "job takers" and play outsized roles in U.S. high-growth entrepreneurship. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, immigration, innovation, administrative data, Survey of Business Owners, Fortune 500, job creation, earnings, growth |
| JEL: | J15 L26 M13 O3 |
| Date: | 2021–09–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2021-014&r= |
| By: | Stephen Lee |
| Abstract: | The theoretical model of Merton (1987) predicts a positive relation between idiosyncratic risk and returns, for investors who are not fully diversified. Investors in the private real estate market hold particularly undiversified portfolios due to lack of information, transaction costs, liquidity requirements, taxes, etc.. Therefore, it is especially important to see whether private real estate returns are significantly related to idiosyncratic risk. The lack of research in the private real estate market due to the lack of high frequency data needed to construct measures of idiosyncratic risk. To overcome this problem we use the cross sectional variance (CSV) as our measure of idiosyncratic risk, as it is calculably at any frequency and is model free. Using monthly data for 35 real estate market segments over the period 1987:1 to 2019:12 the results indicate that CSV is highly correlated with idiosyncratic risk measured by the average variance of errors from the market model. Therefore, we consider CSV a good proxy for idiosyncratic risk in the private real estate market. Then using quantile regression methodology we find that there is a positive relationship in the higher quantiles but an insignificant negative effect in the low quantiles for average market returns 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months ahead. Lastly, we find high idiosyncratic risk portfolios produce significantly higher returns than low idiosyncratic risk portfolios. The results indicate that idiosyncratic risk significantly affects private real estate returns. The study therefore provides important implications for investors and fund managers, as well as researchers. |
| Keywords: | cross section variance; Idiosyncratic risk; monthly data; quantile regressions |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_219&r= |
| By: | Eduardo Gutiérrez (Banco de España); Enrique Moral-Benito (Banco de España); Daniel Oto-Peralías (Department of Economics, Universidad Pablo de Olavide); Roberto Ramos (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | We exploit the GEOSTAT 2011 population grid with a very high 1-km2 resolution to document that Spain presents the lowest density of settlements among European countries. Only a small fraction of the Spanish territory is inhabited, particularly in its southern half, which goes hand in hand with a high degree of population concentration. We uncover through standard regression analysis and spatial regression discontinuity that this anomaly cannot be accounted for by adverse geographic and climatic conditions. The second part of the paper takes a historical perspective on Spain’s settlement patterns by showing that the spatial distribution of the population has been very persistent in the last two centuries, and that the abnormally low density of settlements with respect to European neighbors was already visible in the 19th century, which indicates that this phenomenon has not emerged recently as a consequence of the transformations associated with industrialization and tertiarization. Using data on ancient sites, we find that Spain did not feature scarcity of settlements in comparison to other countries in pre-medieval times, suggesting that its current anomalous settlement pattern has not always existed and is therefore not intrinsic to its geography. |
| Keywords: | Economic Geography, Spain |
| JEL: | R10 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pab:wpaper:21.13&r= |
| By: | Graeme Newell; Jufri Marzuki; Alastair Adair; Elaine Worzala |
| Abstract: | University endowment funds have a key role in providing opportunities for universities beyond their normal budgets (eg: student scholarships etc). In many cases, these university endowment funds are significant pools of assets; eg: Harvard ($39B), Yale ($30B), Stanford ($28B) and Princeton ($26B) in the US and Oxford (£7B) and Cambridge (£6B) in the UK; often seeing separate investment management organizations established to manage these assets. The significance of these university endowment funds to university operations highlights the importance of the portfolio asset mix of these endowment fund portfolios. This sees real estate as a key asset in many university endowment fund portfolios. This paper examines the role of real estate in the portfolios of university endowment funds in the US, UK and Asia. A range of critical issues are assessed for these university endowment fund portfolios, including the level of real estate, real estate strategies used, real estate vehicles used, dynamics and risk management procedures used to achieve this real estate exposure. The ongoing strategic issues for real estate in university endowment fund portfolios are also highlighted. |
| Keywords: | Alternate assets; Portfolios; real estate; University endowment funds |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_128&r= |
| By: | Louis Johner; Martin Hoesli |
| Abstract: | We assess the benefits of diversifying a portfolio of commercial real estate assets across gateway and non-gateway markets, a topic of significant relevance to institutional investors. Using simulation analysis and property-level data for the U.S., we compare various performance metrics for portfolios containing buildings in gateway markets only, both in gateway and non-gateway markets, and in non-gateway markets only, respectively. Our results suggest that the risk-adjusted performance is similar across types of markets. Gateway markets have higher appreciation and total returns, while non-gateway markets exhibit higher income returns even after accounting for capital expenditures. Downside risk appears to be slightly greater for gateway markets than for non-gateway markets; however, full drawdown and recovery lengths tend to be shorter for gateway markets. Our results further show evidence of momentum in appreciation returns, although no differences exist across types of markets. Income returns also appear to affect real estate pricing significantly, this effect being stronger for non-gateway than for gateway markets. By considering a large spectrum of performance metrics in a realistic investment setting, the results of the paper should provide investors with valuable information when allocating funds across gateway and non-gateway markets. The paper also provides important insights regarding how best to define gateway markets. |
| Keywords: | commercial real estate; Downside risk; Gateway Markets; Risk-Adjusted Performance |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_214&r= |
| By: | Marco Felici; Franz Fuerst |
| Abstract: | The special, dual nature of property as both a consumption and an investment good makes it salient for portfolio choice. In fact, the theoretical literature predicts a constraint imposed by property on investment and the empirical literature has brought evidence that this constraint, in some form, exists, but neglecting to investigate its heterogeneity and to differentiate between owner-occupied and investment property. With reference to the predictions from a stochastic control model, we turn to the Wealth and Assets Survey panel for the UK, which allows to break down in detail households' portfolios, to show empirically how the relationship between property and stockholdings depends on the value of property relative to the size of the entire portfolio. While on average, an increase in the share of property in the total portfolio is estimated to correspond to a slight decrease or to no change in the share of stocks in liquid assets, this nexus potentially goes from positive to negative depending on the weight of property in the portfolio. Consistent with the prediction that only consumption-relevant property places a constraint on portfolio choice, the relationship can be identified robustly for owner-occupied property only. |
| Keywords: | Household Finance; Portfolio choice; Property |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_193&r= |
| By: | Felix Brandt; Carsten Lausberg |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the stock returns of German real estate companies from 1991 to 2019. In contrast to previous studies we use a forward-looking approach and alternative risk measures to better reflect investor behavior. At first the paper constructs a traditional five-factor Arbitrage Pricing Theory model to measure the sensitivity of real estate stock returns to the stock, bond and real estate markets as well as to inflation and the overall economic development. The analysis shows that German real estate stocks are more impacted by changes in the economy and the stock market than by changes in the real estate market. We then apply a pseudo ge-ometric Brownian motion concept combined with a Monte Carlo simulation to model future asset prices. Value at risk and conditional value at risk are used to quantify the downside risk for an investor in listed real estate. The paper finds that listed real estate is less risky than the general stock market, which is in line with our expectations. |
| Keywords: | Asset Pricing; Germany; Monte Carlo Simulation; real estate |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_86&r= |
| By: | Caucutt, E. M.; Guner, N.; Rauh, C. |
| Abstract: | The difference in marriage rates between black and white Americans is striking. Wilson (1987) suggests that a skewed sex ratio and higher rates of incarceration and unemployment are responsible for lower marriage rates among the black population. In this paper, we take a dynamic look at the Wilson Hypothesis. Incarceration rates and labor market prospects of black men make them riskier spouses than white men. We develop an equilibrium search model of marriage, divorce, and labor supply in which transitions between employment, unemployment, and prison differ by race, education, and gender. The model also allows for racial differences in how individuals value marriage and divorce. We estimate the model and investigate how much of the racial divide in marriage is due to the Wilson Hypothesis and how much is due to differences in preferences for marriage. We find that the Wilson Hypothesis accounts for more than three quarters of the model's racial-marriage gap. This suggests policies that improve employment opportunities and/or reduce incarceration for black men could shrink the racial-marriage gap. |
| Keywords: | Marriage, Race, Incarceration, Inequality, Unemployment |
| JEL: | J12 J J64 |
| Date: | 2021–09–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2160&r= |
| By: | Carsten Lausberg; Tobias Schultheiß |
| Abstract: | GIF, the Society of Property Researchers in Germany, recently published a catalog of key measures for managing real estate risk. It contains a comprehensive list with standardized descriptions along with sample applications. While some of the figures are well-known to everybody working in this field, several others are uncommon either for academic researchers or for practitioners. The prime goal of the catalog is to contribute to the professionalization of real estate risk management. The goal of our paper is different: We want to present the catalog to the scientific community and to suggest paths for further research on risk measures. One direction could be the systematic investigation of heuristic risk measures such as the Herfindahl-Hirschmann-Index (for concentration risk) or the weighted average remaining lease term (for vacancy risk). Another course could be the standardization of risk measures in such a way that benchmarking becomes possible for real estate investors. |
| Keywords: | benchmarking; real estate; risk measure |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_113&r= |
| By: | Sebastian Will; Timon Renz |
| Abstract: | The present study analyses the relationship between home tenure status and life satisfaction applying fixed-effects regressions. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel from 1984 to 2018, we first find that compared to renting a home, owning one has an overall significant positive effect on life satisfaction. Hereby, we confirm results of already existing studies. Secondly, by examining homeowners and their different financing conditions more closely, we show that having a real estate loan impacts homeowners’ life satisfaction negatively by 0,048 points on a 10-point Likert scale. Taken together, these two antagonistic effects sum up to a null effect, which opposes most of the conclusions of related literature. By choosing to compare indebted homeowner, and not homeowners in general, to renters, we intend to contribute to a more thorough understanding of the effects of tenure status on life satisfaction. Additionally, we examine the temporal effects five years before and after the change in tenure status. As we obtain mixed results, the effects of anticipation and adaptation of life satisfaction remain to be further investigated. |
| Keywords: | financing conditions; Homeownership; Life Satisfaction |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_89&r= |
| By: | Guido Neidhöfer (ZEW Mannheim); Matías Ciaschi (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET); Leonardo Gasparini (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET); Joaquín Serrano (UCLA & CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP) |
| Abstract: | We explore the role of social mobility as a driver of economic development by constructing a panel data set that includes measures of intergenerational mobility of education at the sub-national level in Latin America. First, we map the geography of educational mobility for 52 Latin American regions, as well as its evolution over time. Then, through a novel weighting procedure that considers the participation of cohorts to the economy in each year, we estimate the effect of changes in mobility on economic indicators, such as income per capita, poverty, child mortality, and luminosity. Hereby, we control for several covariates, including migration, educational expansions, initial conditions, and unobserved cross-regional heterogeneity. Our findings show that increasing social mobility had a significant and robust impact on the development of Latin American regions. |
| JEL: | D63 I24 J62 O15 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0286&r= |
| By: | Martin Schnauss; Emanuelle Giannotta |
| Abstract: | The real estate market is undergoing a “major evolution and transformation” (Karamitsos et al. 2018, p.177). In only a few studies, however, the application of a complexity theoretical perspective has been investigated. Here we view the real estate market as a complex adaptive system. Complexity theory provides a framework that has the potential to bridge the gap between traditional “pure” science, which makes clear assumptions that are not necessarily based on reality, and the “applied” sciences, which focus on practical value (Thurner at al 2018). The blockchain reflects the core attributes of complex adaptive systems and thus appears to be a “natural fit” for complex adaptive systems applications (Zavolokina et al. 2018). Furthermore, given its size, the real estate market is relevant to everyday human life. These are all indicators that the interconnections among of complexity theory, blockchain, and the real estate market is worth investigating. Blockchain technology is expected, for example, to create opportunities to outsource services currently provided by incumbent middlemen in the market thereby increasing market efficiency. |
| Keywords: | blockchain; Complex adaptive systems; New Technology; Real Estate Market |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_121&r= |
| By: | MELIS, Lissa; SÖRENSEN, Kenneth |
| Abstract: | The real-time on-demand bus routing problem (ODBRP) supports the online routing of buses in a large-scale ride-sharing system. Given are a set of buses with fixed capacity, a set of bus stations and a set of transportation requests, only part of which are known before the planning horizon. A request consists of a set of possible departure and arrival stations, as well as an earliest departure and latest arrival time. The aim is to (1) assign each passenger to a departure and arrival bus station and (2) develop a set of bus routes to fulfill each request within its time window while minimizing the total user ride time. Including the possibility for requests to be issued after the start of the planning horizon, i.e., when buses have already started servicing other requests, requires a dynamic re-optimization of a partially executed solution. Compared to the case in which all requests are known beforehand, the solution quality, expressed as the total user ride time, is expected to decline. This decline in objective function value can be seen as the ”cost” of the dynamic requests. In this paper, we introduce the real-time ODBRP as a new optimization problem and present a heuristic to deal with dynamic requests. In addition, an extensive set of experiments allows us to conclude that dynamic requests indeed lead to higher user ride times, especially for passengers who submit their request at the last minute. Passengers are therefore encouraged to send their request well in advance, as this results in lower and more stable user ride times, higher customer satisfaction, and higher revenues for the operating on-demand bus company. |
| Keywords: | Public transport, Transportation, Metaheuristic, Mobility on demand |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ant:wpaper:2021003&r= |
| By: | Akwasi Ampofo (University of Adelaide College); Terence C Cheng (School of Public Health, Harvard University); Firmin Doko Tchatoka (School of Economics & Public Policy, The University of Adelaide) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effects of oil extraction on local labour market outcomes. Using household-level data from the Ghana Living Standard Survey, we employ a difference-in-differences approach to show that oil extraction has negative spillover effects on employment but no significant effect on average income. However, the effects vary by migration status, gender and employment sector. Specifically, we observe that migrants, men and agricultural workers experienced significant income spillovers from the oil boom than locals, women and workers in other sectors. In addition, the oil boom resulted in a negative welfare impact as it widened inequality for individuals close to the extraction areas. |
| Keywords: | Oil extraction; Spillover effects; Employment; Resource booms; Migration; DID estimation |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adl:wpaper:2021-03&r= |
| By: | Tjaden, Jasper Dag; Heidland, Tobias |
| Abstract: | In 2015, German Chancellor Angela Merkel decided to allow over a million asylum seekers to cross the border into Germany. One key concern at the time was that her decision would signal an open-door policy to aspiring migrants worldwide - thus, increasing migration to Germany in the long-term. With the continued global rise in forced displacement, Merkel's decision in 2015 provides a unique case study for the fundamental question of whether welcoming migration policies have sustained effects on migration towards destination countries. We analyze an extensive range of data on migration inflows, intentions, and interest between 2000 and 2020. The results reject the 'pull effect' hypothesis while reaffirming states' capacity to adapt to changing contexts and regulate migration. |
| Keywords: | migration,migration policy,asylum and refugee policy,policy signaling,pull effects |
| JEL: | F22 F68 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2194&r= |
| By: | Apanasevic, Tatjana; Rudmark, Daniel |
| Abstract: | In the last decade, private companies have successfully used crowdsourcing to revolutionise mobility, while public transport companies are still mostly failing to utilise the benefits of crowdsourcing. The application of crowdsourcing in public transport is a new area of academic research, and research on crowdsourcing en route in real-time is missing. This research aims to address this gap, explore opportunities and challenges of this type of crowdsourcing, and conceptualise this phenomenon. The research is based on empirical data collected in five Northern European countries. Our research findings help identify areas where crowdsourcing en route can add value to public transport: new forms of communication, opportunities to communicate with third parties, and improved transit planning and optimisation. Identified challenges are related to behavioural change for users, a need to develop infrastructure to enable crowdsourcing en route, and financial rationalities. |
| Keywords: | Future of transportation,public transportation,emerging technologies,automated vehicles,crowdsourcing |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb21:238005&r= |
| By: | Daniel Avdic (Monash University); Stephanie von Hinke (University of Bristol) |
| Abstract: | Excessive alcohol use is associated with a wide range of adverse outcomes that inflict large societal costs. This paper investigates the impacts of increases in regulated opening hours of Swedish alcohol retailers on alcohol purchases, health and crime outcomes by relating changes in these outcomes in municipalities that increased their retail opening hours to those in municipalities whose opening hours remained unchanged. We show that extended opening hours led to statistically and economically significant increases in alcohol purchases by around two percent per weekly opening hour, but find no corresponding increases in adverse outcomes related to the consumption of alcohol. We study potential mechanisms, such as consumption spillovers and on and off-premise substitution, and we discuss policy implications of our findings. |
| Keywords: | alcohol policy, alcohol availability, health effects , crime |
| JEL: | I12 I15 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mhe:chemon:2021-03&r= |
| By: | Yiduo Huang; Zuojun Max Shen |
| Abstract: | The recovery of the public transportation system is critical for both social re-engagement and economic rebooting after the shutdown during pandemic like COVID-19. In this study, we focus on the integrated optimization of service line reopening plan and timetable design. We model the transit system as a space-time network. In this network, the number of passengers on each vehicle at the same time can be represented by arc flow. We then apply a simplified spatial compartmental model of epidemic (SCME) to each vehicle and platform to model the spread of pandemic in the system as our objective, and calculate the optimal open plan and timetable. We demonstrate that this optimization problem can be decomposed into a simple integer programming and a linear multi-commodity network flow problem using Lagrangian relaxation techniques. Finally, we test the proposed model using real-world data from the Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) and give some useful suggestions to system managers. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.03940&r= |
| By: | Momi Dahan |
| Abstract: | This paper reveals a noticeable difference between a high degree of progressivity of incomerelated local property tax relief versus the proportional or regressive incidence of recognition tax relief. Recognition tax relief is tax relief given to specified social sectors which recognizes either their contributions to society or their identity-related suffering. Social groups that are characterized by political power and positive image following social construction process are expected to receive more favorable tax treatment regardless of their material needs. This study advances our understanding by showing that the degree of progressiveness of a tax system is shaped by social construction which implies a more complex trade-off between equality, efficiency and social construction in designing the tax system. |
| Keywords: | tax relief, property tax, tax progressivity, social construction |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9277&r= |
| By: | Hasbi, Maude; Bohlin, Erik |
| Abstract: | Based on a unique and exhaustive database, including micro-level cross-sectional data on 23 million observations over nine years, from 2009 to 2017, we assess whether broadband quality has an impact on income and unemployment reduction. Overall, the results do not show any significant effect of download speed on either income or the unemployment rate. However, after distinguishing between educational attainment and the city size, we obtained heterogeneous results. While we highlight a substitution effect between low-skilled workers and broadband in smaller cities, we also show that broadband quality has a positive impact on unemployment reduction for low-skilled workers in bigger cities. However, the model predicts a negative effect of broadband quality on both the median income and the unemployment rate in areas having a higher proportion of college graduates. This result tends to support the analyses showing that, with the progress made in machine learning, artificial intelligence and the increasing availability of big data, job computerization is expanding to the sphere of high-income cognitive jobs. |
| Keywords: | Broadband Quality,Fibre,Income,Unemployment,Artificial Intelligence |
| JEL: | L13 L50 L96 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb21:238026&r= |
| By: | Bertram Steininger |
| Abstract: | After solving the double-spending problem of digital tokens with blockchain technology, the market for digital tokens has increased enormously over the last few years. Mostly real assets, which are not easy to divide, costly, and involve regulation effort, are identified as the most suitable assets for digital tokenization – properties and land are obviously among them. Even if the key element of solving the double-spending of digital tokens – the blockchain – is widely known, the specific regulations and procedures of this young and its infancy being technology are still not been researched and analyzed exactly. This paper analyzes the theoretical benefits and challenges of real estate securitization via blockchain and how different these “new” assets are from traditional securitizations based on empirical data (return, risk, holding ratios, fee, pricing) of the first token transactions. |
| Keywords: | blockchain; emprical; real estate tokenization; securitization |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_109&r= |
| By: | Degrande, Thibault; Vannieuwenborg, Frederic; Colle, Didier; Verbrugge, Sofie |
| Abstract: | To date, traffic remains a major source of societal costs in terms of safety and environment. In Flanders, as in other regions and Member States in the European Union, the government counts on current developments in cooperative, connected and autonomous mobility (CCAM) to achieve European societal objectives. However, the first set of Cooperative Intelligent Transport Systems (C-ITS) services has overlapping objectives with the functionalities of present ITS infrastructure. Therefore, this paper provides a methodology for road authorities to determine, bottom-up, the incremental benefits C-ITS can bring for the highway segments they operate, given the presence of ITS gantries on those segments. This allows to prioritize segments for C-ITS roadside unit (RSU) deployments, taking into account legacy ITS infrastructure. Results show that segments with dense ITS deployments, though having high traffic volumes, should not be prioritized in RSU deployment selection. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb21:238016&r= |
| By: | Menglong Nan |
| Abstract: | In this paper we provide an extended analytic framework beyond the conventional mean-variance optimization to evaluate the diversification effects of the listed infrastructure equity as an asset class in the context of portfolio optimization. The robust optimization methodology overcomes many disadvantages in the mean-variance optimization by allowing optimization amid uncertainties in parameters. Along with the new measurements effective number of bets in diversification and risks and return, we make the case of investment in the listed infrastructure index. In the multi-period context, the asset under examination performs relatively better with robust optimization and the contributions to the portfolio are stable. The comprehensive reevaluation of the listed infrastructure as an asset class is relevant for institutional investors and the framework is instrumental to similar analysis in the broader area of real estate assets. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure; Investment; portfolio optimization; robust optimization |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_77&r= |
| By: | Robert Bernhardt; Stefania D'Amico; Santiago I. Sordo Palacios |
| Abstract: | Municipal (muni) bonds are an important source of funding for state and local governments. During the Covid-19 pandemic, muni debt markets became severely distressed. In response, the Federal Reserve established the Municipal Liquidity Facility (MLF). Meanwhile, Congress enacted extensive fiscal measures that included direct aid to cities and states. To understand whether and how these policies worked, we employ a state-level regression model to estimate the relative efficacy of monetary and fiscal policy interventions for the term structure of muni-Treasury yield spreads. We find that fiscal and monetary policy together reduced those spreads by as much as 245 basis points. Fiscal policy contributed twice as much as monetary policy to the notable decline in shorter-term muni-Treasury spreads. At longer maturities, the contribution of fiscal policy was at least three times as large as that of monetary policy, suggesting that it addressed fundamental credit concerns. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy; Policy Effects; Stabilization; Bond Market; Security Markets; Government Bonds; Local Government Bonds |
| JEL: | E50 G51 H74 |
| Date: | 2021–09–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:93028&r= |
| By: | Molina, Teresa (University of Hawaii at Manoa); Vidiella-Martin, Joaquim (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | Do local labor markets influence the effectiveness of educational policies? To answer this question, we focus on Mexico's conditional cash transfer program, PROGRESA, documented to have increased educational attainment. We show that PROGRESA's impact on schooling was smaller in areas with more export-oriented manufacturing jobs and argue this is because these jobs generate more convex opportunity costs of schooling. Consistent with this, the heterogeneity we document is strongest among those old enough to be working in factory jobs. In addition, this heterogeneity is primarily driven by jobs that directly influence schooling opportunity costs: low-wage jobs and jobs for school-aged workers. |
| Keywords: | conditional cash transfers, export manufacturing, Mexico, opportunity costs |
| JEL: | I28 F16 I38 O14 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14667&r= |
| By: | Éamonn D'Arcy |
| Abstract: | The advent of COVID-19 has brought significant challenges to the delivery of real estate modules which attempt to integrate a number real world elements as part of the learning process. Such elements are essential to enhancing the commercial awareness and employability of real estate graduates and at a wider level act as a means of embedding opportunities for personal and professional development. This paper presents a case study of taking an industry facing MSc level capstone module online while still retaining it core learning outcomes. The module requires students to work as part of team over a six week period addressing three assignments related to an international field trip, an industry challenge and a real estate strategy game. In a normal year the module involves inputs from over 100 real estate professionals. The case study outlines the approach taken to replicating this module online, including the creation of appropriate supports to facilitate students working effectively as part of a remote team. It examines a range of challenges from putting in places the learning resources necessary to support the creation of a virtual field trip experience to the hiring of industry coaches to critically appraise students outputs from a real world perspective. The paper concludes with a critical assessment of the experience and from this attempts to identify any pedagogic innovations which would be retained going forward. |
| Keywords: | Capstone; COVID-19; Education |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_227&r= |
| By: | Lehmann, Paul; Reutter, Felix; Tafarte, Philip |
| Abstract: | The deployment of onshore wind power is an important means to mitigate climate change. However, wind turbines also produce local disamenities to residents living next to them, mainly due to noise emissions and visual effects. Our paper analyzes how the presence of local disamenities affects the socially optimal siting of onshore wind power. The analysis builds on a spatial optimization model using geographical information system (GIS) data for Germany. Our results indicate a major spatial trade-off between the goals of minimizing electricity generation and disamenity costs. Considering disamenity costs substantially alters - and in fact dominates - the socially optimal spatial allocation of wind power deployment. This is because in Germany a) the spatial correlation between generation costs and disamenity costs is only moderately positive, and b) disamenity costs exhibit a larger spatial heterogeneity than the generation costs. These results are robust to variations in the level and slope of the disamenity cost function that we assume for the modeling. Our findings emphasize the importance of supplementing support schemes for wind power deployment with approaches that address local disamenties, e.g., compensation payments to local residents or minimum settlement distances. |
| Keywords: | Externality,Germany,renewable energy,spatial optimization,wind power |
| JEL: | D62 Q42 Q51 Q53 R14 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ufzdps:42021&r= |
| By: | Beam, Emily A. (University of Vermont); Quimbo, Stella (University of the Philippines, Quezon City) |
| Abstract: | We use a randomized field experiment to test the causal impact of short-term work experience on employment and school enrollment among disadvantaged, in-school youth in the Philippines. This experience leads to a 4.4 percentage point (79-percent) increase in employment 8 to 12 months later. While we find no aggregate increase in enrollment, we also do not find that the employment gains push youth out of school. Our results are most consistent with work experience serving as a signal of unobservable applicant quality, and these findings highlight the role of temporary work as a stepping- stone to employment for low-income youth. |
| Keywords: | short-term employment, work experience, ALMP, experiment |
| JEL: | J24 J08 O15 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14661&r= |
| By: | Grazyna Wiejak-Roy |
| Abstract: | In the light of ever growing complexity of real estate transactions, the need for vendors and buyers to better understand the role of vendor due diligence (VDD) is imperative. The purpose of this paper is twofold: firstly, it provides a detailed literature review regarding the role of the conventional buyer’s due diligence (CBDD) and VDD from both the sellers’ and buyers’ perspectives. Secondly, it analyses the value of VDD over and above CBDD in real estate transactions by proposing a theoretical model involving two-stage auctions. The model suggested is able to accommodate the feature that even though the VDD is broadly increasing informational efficiency in the market, its value is limited when the vendors already have sound understanding of their assets and the buyers’ pre-transaction information about the asset is already high. Though the real estate market is considered here, the theoretical model we propose is applicable to any other complex asset transaction decision that support endogenous information disclosure considerations using VDD. |
| Keywords: | Complex assets; Due diligence; Private information; Two-stage auctions |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_20&r= |
| By: | Binkert, Eva; Flaig, Merlin; Frucht, Lukas; Grävingholt, Jörn; König, Jannis; Kuhnt, Jana; Lendle, Philipp; Muhumad, Abdirahman A.; Potinius, Katharina |
| Abstract: | Ethiopia is the second largest refugee-hosting country in Africa; it accommodates around 700,000 refugees, mostly from neighbouring countries. Humanitarian and development actors are increasingly highlighting the local integration of refugees as a durable solution to protracted refugee situations. Hosting states are called upon to include refugees in their national public services, rather than to sustain a parallel (humanitarian) system, and to empower refugees to secure their own livelihoods as part of the local community. The international community has endorsed this idea by adopting the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework (CRRF) and vowing financial support. Ethiopia is one of the pilot countries implementing this framework. However, the execution of the ambitious approach faces many challenges. This paper focusses on the role of local governments within the CRRF implementation process; they have not yet been the focus of attention even though sustainable solutions largely depend on them. Results show that the CRRF implementation process has slowed down considerably in the past years, mostly remaining on a project base. Shifting political priorities, a lack of leadership and coordination at the national level as well as the unclear role and low capacities of local governments are major barriers to the local integration of refugees. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:212021&r= |
| By: | Platt, Lucinda; Polavieja, Javier; Radl, Jonas |
| Abstract: | Can specific policies support the economic integration of immigrants? Despite the crucial importance of this question, existing evidence is inconclusive. Using data from the European Social Survey, we estimate the effects of integration and anti-discrimination policies, alongside social expenditure and labor market regulation, on the labor market performance of 6,176 non-European immigrants across 23 European countries. We make three contributions: 1) we investigate the distinct role of discrete policy areas for labor market integration outcomes, 2) we allow for heterogeneous effects of policies on immigrants with different characteristics, and 3) we examine immigrants’ occupational attainment while accounting for their selection into employment. We find that immigrants’ employment chances are negatively associated with national levels of expenditure on welfare benefits but positively associated with policies facilitating immigrant access to social security. We also find that labor market rigidity is negatively associated with immigrants’ occupational attainment, but we find little evidence that policies aimed at supporting the transferability of immigrants’ qualifications promote their occupational success. Our results strongly suggest that anti-discrimination policies are important for immigrant economic integration. Yet while these policies are associated with greater occupational success for all female immigrants, they seem to be only positively associated with the occupational attainment of higher-skilled and non-Muslim immigrant men. As this article suggests, anti-discrimination policies can foster immigrants’ labor market success, yet these policies currently fail to reach those who face the strongest anti-immigrant sentiments — that is, unskilled male immigrants and Muslim immigrant men. |
| Keywords: | immigrants; occupational attainment; employment; Europe; integration policies; social expenditure; labor market regulations; Sage deal |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2021–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110955&r= |
| By: | Kerstin Mitterbacher (Institute of Banking and Finance, University of Graz); Stefan Palan (Institute of Banking and Finance, University of Graz); Jürgen Fleiß (Business Analytics and Data Science-Center (BANDAS-Center), University of Graz) |
| Abstract: | We experimentally study economic migrants' willingness to take up work and integrate into society, and, in turn, destination country citizens' willingness to allow economic migrants to pursue formal work and integrate into society and its social security and welfare system. We find clear evidence for a reciprocal relationship between the individuals in these roles. The labor market participation of economic migrants co-moves with destination countries' openness to welcoming them. We conclude that supporting economic migrants in early labor market attachment is crucial to support a mutually beneficial co-existence in a society. |
| Date: | 2021–07–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grz:wpsses:2021-02&r= |
| By: | Fullard, Joshua |
| Abstract: | While it is widely established that higher wages attract more productive individuals into teaching, it is unclear if salaries can be used to motivate existing teachers to work harder, or more productively, in any way that affects pupil outcomes. Using teachers’ predicted relative wages, calculated using a novel method of estimating teachers’ outside option, we provide evidence that teachers do respond to higher wages and this improves pupil outcomes. Consistent with the predictions of the efficiency wage model a 10% increase in teachers’ relative wages improves pupil performance in Science by 0.03sd, Math by 0.024sd as well as their enjoyment of learning by 0.05sd. The magnitude of these effects are similar to a 1 student reduction in class size or an additional hours of weekly tuition. |
| Date: | 2021–09–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:iserwp:2021-07&r= |
| By: | Philipp Maximilian Mueller; Björn-Martin Kurzrock |
| Abstract: | In real estate transactions, the parties generally have limited time to provide and process information. Using building documentation and digital building data may help to obtain an unbiased view of the asset. In practice, it is still particularly difficult to assess the physical structure of a building due to shortcomings in data structure and quality. Machine learning may improve speed and accuracy of information processing and results. This requires structured documents and applying a taxonomy of unambiguous document classes. In this paper, prioritized document classes from previous research (Müller, Päuser, Kurzrock 2020) are supplemented with key information for technical due diligence reports. The key information is derived from the analysis of n=35 due diligence reports. Based on the analyzed reports and identified key information, a checklist for technical due diligence is derived. The checklist will serve as a basis for a standardized reporting structure. The paper provides fundamentals for generating a (semi-)automated standardized due diligence report with a focus on the technical assessment of the asset. The paper includes recommendations for improving the machine readability of documents and indicates the potential for (partially) automated due diligence processes. The paper concludes with challenges towards an automated information extraction in due diligence processes and the potential for digital real estate management. |
| Keywords: | digital building documentation; Document Classification; Due diligence; Machine Learning |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_64&r= |
| By: | Emanuel Stocker; David Koch |
| Abstract: | Most studies for the economic evaluation of refurbishment measures lean on energy efficiency or energy savings. From the owner's point of view, the question arises whether and in what form improvement measures that increase the quality or the value of the property are economically profitable. This means in this case already used units, which have a potential of rent increases due to improvements. In practice, such investigations are carried out in a detailed level. The owner incurs expenses as a result before he can make the decision to carry out in-depth investigations into possible renovations. The aim of this paper is an investigation of possible refurbishment measurements on a general level. Based on three quality levels and four defined conditions, 24 possible maintenance scenarios can arise for an existing building or component. The developed approach needs only a few input parameters, especially the quality as well as the condition and statistical key values to calculate the economic efficiency. The methodology of this technical-economic approach has been carried out on 30 vacant building units. They are all located in city centres. The empirical study determines the typical cost drivers for the refurbishment measurements and their economic viability. |
| Keywords: | Cost efficiency; Refurbishment; vacant building units |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_181&r= |
| By: | Johannes M. Bos (American Institutes for Research, USA); Akib Khan (Uppsala University, Sweden); Saravana Ravindran (Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore); Abu S. Shonchoy (Department of Economics, Florida International University) |
| Abstract: | Can governments leverage existing service-delivery platforms to scale early childhood development (ECD) programs? We experimentally study a large-scale home-visiting intervention providing materials and counseling -integrated into Bangladesh's national nutrition program without extra financial incentives for the service providers (SPs). We find SPs partially substituted away from nutritional to ECD counseling. Intent-to-treat estimates show the program improved child's cognitive (0.17 SD), language (0.23 SD), and socio-emotional developments (0.12-0.14 SD). Wasting and underweight rates also declined. Improved maternal agency, complementary parental investments, and higher take-up of the pre-existing nutrition program were important mechanisms. We estimate a sizeable internal rate-of-return of 19.6%. |
| Keywords: | Early childhood development, Human capital formation, Bangladesh |
| JEL: | J13 J24 I25 H11 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fiu:wpaper:2115&r= |
| By: | Fullard, Joshua |
| Abstract: | Using data from the Destination of Leavers from Higher Education (DLHE), we take advantage of the plausibly exogenous variation in the unemployment rate, by field of study, at time of graduation to investigate the impact of labour market condition on teacher supply, measured by enrolment onto an Initial Teacher Training Programme (TTP). We find that labour market conditions have no effect on the probability that a graduate will go into a TTP. However, heterogeneity analysis suggests that periods of high unemployment impact the composition of graduates who enrol with effects on diversity (more male graduates and more ethnic minority graduates), subject specific shortages (more Physics graduates) and quality (more graduates from Russell Group Universities). |
| Date: | 2021–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:iserwp:2021-06&r= |
| By: | Islam, Mohammed Syedul |
| Keywords: | Health Economics and Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:313380&r= |
| By: | HARA Hiromi; Núria RODRÃ GUEZ-PLANAS |
| Abstract: | We explore whether a 1990 Japanese educational reform that eliminated gender-segregated and gender-stereotyped industrial arts and home economics classes in junior high schools led to behavioral changes among these students some two decades later when they were married and in their early forties. Using a Regression Discontinuity (RD) design and Japanese time-use data from 2016, we find that the reform had a direct impact on Japanese women's attachment to the labor force, which seems to have changed the distribution of gender roles within the household, as we observe both a direct effect of the reform on women spending more time in traditionally male tasks during the weekend and an indirect effect on their husbands, who spend more time in traditionally female tasks. We present suggestive evidence that women's stronger attachment to the labor force may have been driven by changes in beliefs regarding men's and women's gender roles. As for men, the reform only had a direct impact on their weekend time spent on household production if they were younger than their wives and had small children. In such relationships, the reform also had the indirect effect of reducing the time their wives spent on weekend household production without increasing the wives' labor-market attachment. Interestingly, the reform increased fertility only when it decreased wives' time spent on childcare. Otherwise, the reform delayed fertility. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:21072&r= |
| By: | Jason Bram; Joelle Scally |
| Abstract: | As we mourn the tragic losses of the 9/11 attacks twenty years on, we thought it would be appropriate to re-examine the remarkable resilience New York City’s economy has shown over the years—a resilience that is once again being tested by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In this Liberty Street Economics post, we look at how Lower Manhattan, in particular, has changed since that tragedy on a number of dimensions, and use that as a framework to think about how the city might change as a result of the COVID pandemic. |
| Keywords: | New York City |
| JEL: | R10 |
| Date: | 2021–09–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:93045&r= |
| By: | Janak Parmar; Gulnazbanu Saiyed; Sanjaykumar Dave |
| Abstract: | The concept of transportation demand management (TDM) upholds the development of sustainable mobility through the triumph of optimally balanced transport modal share in cities. The modal split management directly reflects on TDM of each transport subsystem, including parking. In developing countries, the policy-makers have largely focused on supply-side measures, yet demand-side measures have remained unaddressed in policy implications. Ample literature is available presenting responses of TDM strategies, but most studies account mode choice and parking choice behaviour separately rather than considering trade-offs between them. Failing to do so may lead to biased model estimates and impropriety in policy implications. This paper seeks to fill this gap by admitting parking choice as an endogenous decision within the model of mode choice behaviour. This study integrates attitudinal factors and built-environment variables in addition to parking and travel attributes for developing comprehensive estimation results. A mixed logit model with random coefficients is estimated using hierarchical Bayes approach based on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation method. The results reveal significant influence of mode/parking specific attitudes on commuters choice behaviour in addition to the built-environment factors and mode/parking related attributes. It is identified that considerable shift is occurring between parking-types in preference to switching travel mode with hypothetical changes in parking attributes. Besides, study investigates the heterogeneity in the willingness-to-pay through a follow-up regression model, which provides important insights for identifying possible sources of this heterogeneity among respondents. The study provides remarkable results which may be beneficial to planning authorities for improving TDM strategies especially in developing countries. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.01045&r= |
| By: | Gundacker, Lidwina; Kosyakova, Yuliya; Schneider, Gerald |
| Abstract: | Asylum policy-making in advanced democracies frequently faces the accusation that prejudice and stereotyping lead to erroneous decisions. The model of taste-based discrimination suggests that the biases of decision-makers or their peers against certain groups of applicants influence the evaluation of an asylum claim. Conversely, the concept of statistical discrimination implies that a dearth of information forces impartial decision-makers to resort to stereotypes. We examine both forms of discrimination, evaluating whether they shape asylum-seekers' chances to receive protection in Germany, currently a key recipient country. Our empirical examination of a representative refugee survey in Germany confirms that asylum decisions are subject to tastebased discrimination: males, Muslims, and applicants assigned to regions with a conservative population or government are less likely to obtain asylum or other forms of protection. Conforming to the theory of statistical discrimination, stereotyping against male or Muslim applicants' manifests most pronouncedly if decision-makers suffer under high workload or possess little information. However, high information costs do not alter stereotyping in more conservative regions. Altogether, our study reveals that extra-legal reasons in the form of prejudice and stereotypes considerably undermine what should be the key criterion in assessing an asylum claim: the credibility of an individual's need for protection. |
| Keywords: | Asylum recognition,principal-agent models,federalism,immigration attitudes,Germany,discrimination |
| JEL: | F22 H83 J16 K37 K38 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cexwps:05&r= |
| By: | Gyódi, Kristóf |
| Abstract: | Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the traditional hotel industry and Airbnb in nine major European cities. The author examines differences between the two business models and analyses various strategies of Airbnb hosts to cope with the crisis. Design/methodology/approach: A detailed empirical analysis is presented based on data from STR and Inside Airbnb for the period January 2018–September 2020. To assess the impact of the pandemic on the hotel industry, year-to-year changes in various performance metrics are presented. The author also investigates the impact of the pandemic on Airbnb prices with panel data regression analysis. Using text-mining methods, signs for new use-cases are explored, including renting flats for home-office or quarantine. Findings: The results support that Airbnb supply is more flexible. While hotel supply quickly returned to a level close to 2019, the average number of Airbnb listings was lower by more than 15%. Furthermore, the price analysis showed that Airbnb rates decreased more moderately than hotel prices. These findings suggest that a significant share of hosts pivoted from short-term accommodation provision and used their property differently, e.g. rented on a long-term basis. The analysis of listing characteristics revealed that the role of longer stays increased; however, the results do not support a shift towards advertising listings for home-office or quarantine purposes. Originality/value: This paper presents the impact of the pandemic on the hospitality sector in a wide sample of European cities, explores the adjustment of hotels and Airbnb and provides new evidence on the differences between the business models. |
| Keywords: | Tourism, Airbnb, Text-mining, COVID |
| JEL: | L8 |
| Date: | 2021–08–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109333&r= |
| By: | Kovalenko, Tim |
| Abstract: | Uncertainty shocks are found to adversely affect labor market outcomes. Most studies attribute labor adjustments costs for the propagation of macroeconomic uncertainty to the labor market. Given that large establishments in Germany face higher labor adjustments cost, they should be affected more strongly by these shocks. Therefore, this paper studies the effects of uncertainty shocks on employment adjustments in large and small establishments employing four structural vector auto-regressive models with quarterly data for Germany in the period 1991-2014. These four models estimate effects of uncertainty shocks on employment, worker flows, job flows as well as worker churn, both for establishments with less than 100 and with at least 100 employees. The results suggest that uncertainty shocks induce considerable employment fluctuations in large establishments, while they have barely an effect on small establishments. Furthermore, large establishments adjust their labor input in response to an uncertainty shock by delaying the replacement of workers who leave these establishments. |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty Shocks,Employment,Worker Flows,Job Flows,Worker Churn,Establishment Size,Structural Vector Auto-Regression,Germany |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J63 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:faulre:119&r= |
| By: | Walter, Timo |
| Abstract: | From the early 1990s until 2005 the unemployment rate rose in Germany from 7.3% to 11.7%. While the unemployment rate reached its peak in 2005, it decreased steadily in the following years. On the one hand, the fourth stage of the German labor market reform (Hartz IV) was implemented in 2005 with the intent to cut the unemployment rate. On the other hand, the productivities in Germany and Eastern Europe grew strongly during the same period, enhancing the joint trade. The "rise of the East", in terms of rising trade, is likely to have had an ambiguous effect on the German labor market. This paper investigates the employment effects of the "Hartz IV-Reform". Further, it concentrates on the labor market effects of the German and Eastern European productivity shock. The focus lies on the national and county level (including 402 counties). As the effects on regional labor markets differ and take time, the paper builds on the dynamic and spatial trade model of Caliendo et al. (2019). I find that the "Hartz IV-Reform" and the German productivity contributes positively to the decline of unemployment, whereas the increase in Eastern European productivity is only responsible for a minor increase in unemployment. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic Trade Model,Labor Market Reform,Trade Liberalization,Productivity Shocks,Germany,Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | F14 F16 F17 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hohdps:052021&r= |
| By: | Massimo Mariani; Alessandra Caragnano; Francesco d'Ercole; Marianna Zito; Paola Amoruso |
| Abstract: | Across the years, environmental consequences deriving from climate change and disruptive natural catastrophes are taking the lead in the governments’ agenda in order to mitigate the effect of environmental degradation. In this framework, the so called “climate risk” and its implication on financial markets are, basically, the object of a huge analysis and increasing interest of financial market players and in particular academics and practitioners has paid deep attention to the climate change implication on real estate market, conceived as one of the most affected from climate risk. In this scenario, this work aims at exploring the relationship between the volatility in weather-related patterns across the time and its implication in real estate returns, taking into account the existing gap between national real estate markets. The ambitious goals of this research are to provide a contribution to the existing literature on the hot debate towards the aforementioned relation and its implication on an investor perspective and to evaluate practices which allow to consider differences in that impact across different time horizons. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change; Climate Risk; natural disaster; real estate |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_100&r= |
| By: | Herbst, Chris M. (Arizona State University); Kose, Esra (Bucknell University) |
| Abstract: | Our paper provides some of the first evidence on the effect of the Head Start funding expansions on program inputs. We take advantage of the county-year variation in funding increases that were implemented due to a number of legislated policy changes in the late 1980s and throughout the 1990s. By focusing on the period between 1988 and 2007, we show that the funding increases were directed at increasing program enrollment and full-time enrollment. We also show that the funding expansions were used to make a number of quality-related in- vestments, including increasing the number of teachers and staff, and upgrading the skill-level of teachers. |
| Keywords: | national government expenditures and education, head start, early childhood education |
| JEL: | H52 I28 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14670&r= |
| By: | Ken Onishi |
| Abstract: | This note analyzes competition and concentration in the small business lending market using data obtained from Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) disclosures and data on local branches from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's (FDIC) Summary of Deposits (SOD). In 1963, the Supreme Court defined the product market for commercial banking. |
| Date: | 2021–08–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2021-08-24&r= |
| By: | Shelton Weeks; Vivek Bharagava |
| Abstract: | The Corona virus pandemic and the subsequent economic slowdown provide an opportunity to examine the relative performance of US REITs during a period of extreme market disruption. In this study, we investigate the short-term response of US REITs to this global event employing four market models and three distinct pandemic related event dates. In order to examine the performance across market sectors the returns on REIT indexes are considered instead of individual REITs. The empirical results provide additional evidence with respect to the performance of REITs relative to the overall market and the benefits derived from including REITs in a portfolio during adverse market conditions. |
| Keywords: | Black Swan; Event Study; Pandemic; REIT |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_19&r= |