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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Francesco Agostinelli (University of Pennsylvania); Margaux Luflade (University of Pennsylvania); Paolo Martellini (University of Wisconsin--Madison) |
| Abstract: | We study the role of local institutions--that is, school boundaries, school transportation provision, and zoning restrictions--in determining inequalities of educational opportunities for children. Motivated by our empirical findings on how the demand for both neighborhoods and schools responds to quasi-experimental variation in school quality and transportation, we build and estimate a spatial equilibrium model of residential sorting and school choice. We use the estimated model to analyze three policies that aim to improve educational access to economically disadvantaged children: expanding school choice, providing housing vouchers, and upzoning residential neighborhoods. We find that the success of school choice expansion is contingent on integrating transportation services, and that the common assumption in the school choice literature of policy-invariant residential location would lead to opposite implications for the equilibrium change in school composition. The voucher program benefits eligible families, but the benefits fade in equilibrium as the policy is implemented on a large scale. Finally, upzoning is an effective policy in lowering inequality in school composition via a reduction in neighborhood income segregation. |
| Keywords: | school zoning, quasi-experimental variation, voucher programs |
| JEL: | I24 R23 R31 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2021-042&r= |
| By: | Michael White; Kevin Cutsforth |
| Abstract: | Periods of high volatility in house prices increasingly occur synchronously in the housing markets of different countries and also at a disaggregated level within countries. Such contagion, or volatility spillovers are often captured by ARCH type. While many studies have examined international patterns in house price movements or considered regional housing market relationships, relatively few have researched how house prices diffuse over local housing markets. In this paper we employ data at local authority level in the UK for major cities and their surrounding areas to examine not only potential connectedness between cities but particularly focusing on price diffusion and spillovers between cities and their neighbouring local authority areas as well as considering price leadership and the ripple effect, or contagion. Specifically, we examine volatility spillovers between housing markets in different local authority areas following Diebold and Yilmaz (2014). Our analysis will permit a dynamic analysis as over time, any local authority can be both a net transmitter and a net receiver of shocks. Furthermore, Attanasio et al., (2009) noted that there may be some form of common causality that links regions therefore leading to significant correlations. This may be prevalent at a more disaggregated level and linking to previous studies on ripple effects (Meen, 1990, 1999), may imply contagion spreading from leading housing market areas to followers. In this paper we test for contagion between housing markets using house price data from the local authorities. We consider different approaches such as extreme value theory and ARCH based models. |
| Keywords: | Contagion; Housing Economics; Interconnectedness; Spillovers |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_178&r= |
| By: | Gizem Hayrullahoglu; Yeim Aliefendio Tanrvermi |
| Abstract: | In Ankara, capital of Turkey, the neoliberalism in the 1980’s has differentiated the manner of housing supply. The period of housing for all segments of society have begun besides affordable housing. Such an economic development has caused urban sprawl with the impacts of land speculation, increase in transportation facilities and some incorrect public policies. All these drivers of urban sprawl are most closely associated with the housing market, so housing demand dynamics in particular are become the main determinants of uncontrolled urban growth. The leapfrog development of Ankara’s western corridor in the last four decades remains a challenge for central-local governments. Land consumption, insufficient public transport for the expanding urban area, socio-spatial segregation, and urban infrastructure imposing additional financial burden threaten both environmental and economic sustainability. Today, although there are enough vacant lots in the city center, the city is growing outward and there is great pressure on the rural-urban fridge where farming still occurs. Furthermore, spatial development in this region and upper scale plan decisions are in conflict with each other. It is obvious that the driving forces of urban sprawl will be better understood by determining the housing demand dynamics. In this study, a hedonic model is established to analyze the dynamics of housing demand, which is the hidden driving force of urban sprawl in Ankara. The in-situ study including 303 face-to-face surveys is conducted in Alacaatli and Yasamkent Neighborhoods -approximately the size of 2,420 hectares- on June 2018 and data obtained as a result of the survey are used as variables in the hedonic model. The findings reveal that factors such as security and crime that reduce welfare in the city center and low-quality or traditional housing types in the city center stimulate the urban expansion towards large open spaces. The results show that socioeconomic status and lifestyles are related with the preference to live in urban sprawl areas, and the city center is not preferred for residential purposes since it is seen as unsafe and chaotic. It is proposed that the domain-specific housing demand dynamics in urban sprawl areas must be considered in spatial planning assumptions for the sustainable development of Ankara. |
| Keywords: | Hedonic Pricing; Housing demand; Urban Sprawl |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_174&r= |
| By: | Kwong Wing Chau; Ervi Liusman |
| Abstract: | Previous studies suggest that there are many psychological, social and cultural motives for owning private cars in addition to using it as a means of transportation. In Hong Kong, the cost of car parking space is a very significant cost of car ownership. When a car owner buys a housing unit, he would also need a car parking space. If the motive to own a car is independent of the choice of location of the housing unit, car parking spaces and housing units are complementary goods. However, if car ownership is simply for the purpose of transportation, the decision to own a car and the choice of the location of the housing unit are joint decisions. A home purchaser will consider the cost of car ownership (including the cost of car parking spaces) an integral part of housing expenditure. An increase in the expenditure on the housing unit will mean less is available for car parking spaces and vice versa. Therefore car parking spaces and housing units are substitute goods. In Hong Kong car parking spaces inside in a residential development can be purchased in the secondary market. These car parking spaces are actively transacted so that we can construct car parking price indices for the urban and sub-urban areas. The complementary (substitute) goods argument implies that price trend of residential properties in the urban areas relative to those in the sub-urban areas is positively (negatively) correlated with the price trend of car parking spaces in the urban areas relative to those in the sub-urban areas relative. The empirical results suggest that car parking spaces and housing units are substitute goods. |
| Keywords: | Car parking spaces; Complementary goods; housing; Substitute goods |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_33&r= |
| By: | Harun Tanrivermis; Parla Gunes |
| Abstract: | Urban development, growth, sprawl, expansion and fringe issues have gained special importance both in spatial planning and infrastructure investments and in the analysis of real estate markets. Approaches based on Geographic Information Systems and fractal analysis are often used in the analysis of urban growth and spatial change, and the states of compact (concentrated) or fringed (spread) are measured as an indicator of urban space use efficiency. Fractal analysis, based on fractal geometry, contributes to the quantitative study of the morphology of objects. In this sense, by determining fractal dimension and lacunarity index the change in space over time and especially by analysing the change in land use and land cover, the structure of spatial organization, urban growth and development of the built environment can be analysed. Although many research has been conducted on the analysis of urban development processes and analysis of urban morphology, it has been found that there are no studies on spatial pattern in Ankara by using fractal analysis. This paper will contribute to the questioning of urban spatial dynamics and to the assessment of its possible effects on real estate market and location choice of landowners. In addition, in the process of historical development in the city, it is necessary to determine the orientation of urban sprawl, real estate investments and, in particular, the land ownership change or the evaluation of speculative trends depending on the mobility of zoning in the immediate vicinity of the city. The determination of the time between the acquisition of land in the city and the date of sale and the determination of the main factors that affect the relocation of people in the city between places were evaluated according to the results of the survey applied to owners, real estate market intermediaries and other stakeholders. When the observations and research results conducted in the studied settlements are put together, it was determined that there were similarities between the fractal dimension values and the physical structure specificities of the space. The values obtained as a result of computation through software show that urban spaces containing elements that contribute to urban life have fractal dimensions at different scales. In addition to the distribution analysis depending on the spatial planning process in the districts and neighbourhoods selected from the city of Ankara, the transfer of hands of land and the time of possession were also examined during the planning process. By analysing Land Registry records, zoning plans and survey data together, the existence of speculation in land markets in selected settlements was examined on the basis of mobility in land markets during planning periods. In the study, urban sprawl, change in land use and mobility analysis of landowners (mobility) were discussed according to the results of the general situation analysis and fieldwork conducted in selected neighbourhoods. It has been observed that there is a strong relationships between spatial planning studies and infrastructure investments and urban sprawl in the selected neighbourhoods of the city, and the characteristics of areas that landowners prefer to the results of planning studies. Based on the outcomes related to the development of spaces in cities it has been shown that planning carried out with future predictions can significantly contribute to the sustainability. |
| Keywords: | Landowners; Mobility and Fractal analysis; Sprawl and fringe; Urban Growth |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_169&r= |
| By: | Sara Özogul |
| Abstract: | Investments into built environments have become a major economic driver, and throughout Europe, regions compete to attract (international) investment capital. Over decades, regional economic analysts have explored and theorized processes of change to adequately plan for regional development. Changes connected to financialized property markets, however, challenge some of the most fundamental assumptions and principles of regional economic analysis: when the built environment is considered as a tradable investment asset, and liquid capital only temporarily fixes in land and property as a by-product, prominent spatial models and theories that centre for example around the role of industry clusters and the locational choices of firms for regional economies, become largely uninstructive. This paper calls for new avenues in regional economic analysis that incorporate financialized property markets and the spatial cognition of investment actors. I argue for a combination of territorial evidence, commercial property investment transaction data, and in-depth insights into the spatial cognition of property market actors in regional investment decisions. The paper begins by reviewing dominant approaches in regional economic analysis. I evaluate the extent to which commonly used indicators capture and reflect financialised property market dynamics and subsequently develop an adapted framework for regional economic analysis. The framework particularly emphasises the need to move beyond widespread assumptions on the rational economic behaviour of property investors by including their perceptions, emotions and intersubjectivities influencing investment locations. The twofold analysis follows a mixed-method approach. First, I conduct a fine-grained analysis of regional economic indicators and their link to residential property investment patterns in continental Western Europe on the basis of detailed territorial evidence from the European Spatial Planning Observation Network. Then, I cross-analyse the territorial evidence with commercial property investment data. By mapping datasets conjointly, I can identify major (mis)matches in regional trends between territorial indicators, transactions volumes and investor profiles. Lastly, I zoom into the Amsterdam Metropolitan Region to unravel context-dependent cognitive structures of investment actors through in-depth interviews with residential property investors to explain these (mis)matches. I end the paper by reviewing the framework and stressing the importance of including territorial data in real estate studies, conducting novel regional analysis valuable for real estate and regional studies scholars and practitioners alike. |
| Keywords: | Cognition; Investment; Property; territorial data |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_59&r= |
| By: | Jianfei Li; Ioulia Ossokina; Theo Arentze |
| Abstract: | With the increasing need for urban green space in urban area to improve the climate adaptation of cities, the spatial planning of residential land-use faces new challenges. Therefore, land-use allocation models offer a useful tool to shed light on the trade-offs and generate suitable solutions for housing allocation problems. A critical prerequisite for housing allocation models is, however, that the value-function is specified such that it accurately represents buyers’ willingness-to-pay for dwelling and location characteristics in the housing market. Hedonic price analysis is the predominant method to estimate willingness-to-pay values based on housing transaction data. Due to high correlations between spatial factors, however, the ability to identify the parameters of spatial factors involved in such value functions is limited. The objective of this study is to apply an alternative method to accurately measure households’ preferences of housing location and its neighborhood characteristics that is based on a stated choice experiment. In this paper, we present the results of a stated choice experiment that we developed for this purpose. The population consists of homeowners (households) in middle-sized to large-sized cities in the Netherlands. The experiment consists of two parts to measure preferences for neighborhood characteristics and for accessibility of urban amenities respectively. The price of the dwelling is an attribute in both experiments so that a single discrete choice model can be estimated based on the pooled data from the two experiments. The experiments are implemented in an on-line survey and data is collected for a large national sample of homeowners in the Netherlands. This study will provide quantitative insight into homeowners’ preferences (willingness to pay) regarding spatial characteristics of a dwelling. By doing this, we obtain an empirically estimated housing land-use allocation model. This model offers a tool to municipalities and housing developers to optimize urban housing development taking into account financial, climate, and social objectives (match demand and supply of housing). In the paper, we describe the design of the experiments, the data collection, the results of a loglikelihood estimation and we show how the estimation results can be used to specify a state-of-the-art housing allocation model. |
| Keywords: | housing preferences; neighborhood environment; Stated Choice Experiment |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_78&r= |
| By: | Selim Banabak |
| Abstract: | Although there exists some scientific literature concerned with pricing on the Austrian real estate market (Helbich, W. Brunauer, et al., 2014; Kuntz and Helbich, 2014; W. Brunauer, Lang, and Umlauf, 2013), there is surprisingly little quantitative research on housing rents, their spatial structure and drivers. Expanding the existing literature beyond house price prediction is especially important in the Viennese case, where according to the Austrian Mikrozensus, 77.5% of the population live in a rented flat (Statistik Austria, 2020). Thus, quantitative research on the Austrian housing market cannot primarily focus on price formation regarding private real estate property but needs to also consider rental markets. W. A. Brunauer et al. (2010) provide a notable exception from the lack of quantitative research on the Viennese rental case as well as an interesting approach using a Generalized Additive Model with spatial scaling. Fortunately, there is also a growing body of econometric literature on housing rents and their drivers onthe international stage where one could draw ideas from. Recent examples can be found in Tomal (2020); McCord et al. (2014) or Efthymiou and Antoniou (2013.) Usually in the spirit of hedonic house price models, housing rents are regressed onto certain characteristics of the respective flat as well as some indicators measuring the quality of location. However, the Viennese housing market has several special features which have not been properly addressed in housing rent modeling up till now. An important feature of the Viennese accommodation market is the fact that roughly 43% of households live in a flat provided by the social sector, which consists of municipal as well as cooperative (non-profit) housing. The private rental sector on the other hand accommodates about a third of the households (Tockner, 2017). Thus, dynamics in the comparatively small free market segment cannot be adequately understood if considered independent from the larger social sector (Kemeny,Kersloot, and Thalmann, 2005). A further important aspect is the strong regulation of rent prices through the Mietrechtsgesetz (MRG) that basically constitutes two regulatory regimes within the private market segment. On the one hand flats located in buildings erected before 1945 or built with state subsidies experience strong price controls. On the other hand, flats that do not fulfill the previously mentioned criteria as well as single family houses do not experience any such price controls. However, the introduction of location bonuses to the price-controlled segment led to spatially very uneven price increases over the last years (Kadi, 2015). We propose a hierarchical generalized additive model (HGAM) to model squaremeter prices by smooth functions of flat characteristics such as size, age, and time within the sample. Additionally, various dummy variables enter the model as linear predictors and random effects are used to model subdistrict specific location bonuses in the baseline model. Going beyond the existing hedonic housing rent literature this study also proposes several extensions to model, addressing the aforementioned special features of the Viennese rental market. Thus, the baseline HGAM is modified to incorporate regulatory-regime heterogeneity in its parameters as well as spatial heterogeneity with respect to time trends in order to properly address the differences in the development of location bonuses. Varying degree of competition from the social sector in each subdistrict is also tested as a potential impacting factor onto rents. As spatial autocorrelation might be an issue given the spatial nature of the data, we do not only use random effects for the location bonuses but also add a spatially structured predictor using markov-random-fields. The Data available for this study was kindly provided by the DataScience Service GmbH and consists of over 84,000 observations of flats offered on the Viennese rental market between 2012 and 2020 with a very high coverage rate during the more recent years. Asking prices, GIS data, very detailed real estate characteristics including size, age, furnishing and many more, as well as a multitude of socio-economic variables on the respective area such as share of academics, proximity to medical infrastructure or accessibility of public transport are available for the given dataset. Due to the constant excess demand on the accommodation market in Vienna for the given period, asking prices are assumed to hardly deviate from market prices and can be seen, as a legitimate approximation. First results suggest that all proposed extensions to the baseline model add significant predictive power. |
| Keywords: | HGAM; Housing Rents; Rent Regulation; Vienna |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_167&r= |
| By: | Juan Wang; Gamze Dane; Harry Timmermans |
| Abstract: | Car commuters contribute significantly to carbon emissions and seem largely insensitive to dedicated modal shift transportation policy initiatives. Therefore, integrated policies that target multiple life domains may be more effective. In this study, we investigate commuters’ preferences for carsharing facilitating neighborhoods as well as their potential travel behaviors shift if they move to such neighborhoods. This policy, combining real estate, sustainable planning and transportation, aims to reduce neighborhoods parking needs and therefore parking facilities. In compensation, residents are provided convenient access to shared vehicles against lower costs and a better living environment, reflected in more green space or safer children playing areas or larger flats. To examine the potential interest in moving to such neighborhoods, a stated choice experiment is designed that systematically varies attributes of carsharing facilitating neighborhoods to elicit the utility of a carsharing facilitating neighborhood for commuters with a particular socio-demographic profile and commuting behavior. In total, 369 valid responses from commuters who currently live in urban areas in The Netherlands were gathered for the analysis. To derive the utility of carsharing facilitating neighborhoods of a particular profile, a mixed logit model is estimated. Results indicate that the utility of a carsharing facilitating neighborhood primarily depends on carsharing cost, housing costs and housing size. The utility varies with socio-demographic characteristics, such as living city, educational level, monthly income, work status and commuting behavior, measured in terms of private car ownership, carsharing subscription, commuting mode and commuting time. Regarding shifts in travel mode, 25.5% of the respondents stated that they would reduce private car ownership if they would live in a carsharing facilitating neighborhood. 32.8% of the respondents stated that they would use shared vehicles in such neighborhoods for travelling to the office, and 18.7% stated they would use them to access transit. These results can help real estate developers and policy makers understanding how to develop appealing carsharing facilitating neighbourhoods for targeted commuters groups. |
| Keywords: | Carsharing facilitating neighborhoods; Commuting; mixed logit model; Stated Choice Experiment |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_10&r= |
| By: | Lion Lukas Naumann; Holger Lischke |
| Abstract: | Social preservation areas, so-called 'milieu protection areas', are currently a popular instrument in urban policy of major German cities such as Berlin, Hamburg, or Munich, which promises to protect residents from displacement. Ownership rights are restricted here, e.g., through modernisation regulations and controls on conversions from rented to owner-occupied flats. In the popular Berlin district of Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, for example, 40 % of the area has now been designated as a milieu protection area, with corresponding effects on the property markets. The federal government is currently planning an amendment to the Building Act with similar regulations. Therefore, we take a closer look at the effects of these restrictions on the property market for Berlin and address the central question How have purchase prices for condominium in Berlin's milieu protection areas developed and how does milieu protection affect them? We look at housing transactions from 2015 to 2019 provided by the Expert Committees for Property Values, relate these to further neighbourhood data and regress the transaction price using hedonic modelling in the various spatial submarkets inside and outside the milieu protection areas. We conclude that milieu protection areas are placed in areas where higher prices are paid beforehand and milieu protection itself does not reduce the attractiveness on the markets. In addition, modernisations are made more difficult, which in turn is associated with larger price increases for features (e.g., balconies) in the areas. The much-criticised converted flats cannot be associated with luxury refurbishment in the study. Our paper contributes to the discussion on urban development laws that focus on property restriction activities. |
| Keywords: | Gentrification; Housing Policy; policy evaluation; Residential Market |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_134&r= |
| By: | Bratu, Cristina; Harjunen, Oskari; Saarimaa, Tuukka |
| Abstract: | We study the city-wide e ects of new, centrally-located market-rate housing supply using geo-coded total population register data from the Helsinki Metropolitan Area. The supply of new market rate units triggers moving chains that quickly reach middle- and low-income neighborhoods and individuals. Thus, new market-rate construction loosens the housing market in middle- and low-income areas even in the short run. Market-rate supply is likely to improve affordability outside the sub-markets where new construction occurs and to benefit low-income people. |
| Keywords: | Housing supply, Housing affordability, Filtering, Local public finance and provision of public services, R31, R21, R23, |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fer:wpaper:146&r= |
| By: | Vincent Tronet; Peter Parlasca |
| Abstract: | Among the statistics published by Eurostat are housing price statistics but also many other housing related statistics. These statistics are key for policy makers but also for households due to their economic, social and environmental importance. European statistics on house prices are part of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP), which is a surveillance mechanism that aims to identify potential macroeconomic risks early on, prevent the emergence of harmful macroeconomic imbalances and correct the imbalances that are already in place. In the surveillance of the COVID 19 impact on economic activities housing prices play a role as well. Every quarter, Eurostat publishes indices on: house prices with a breakdown for new and existing dwellings, owner occupiers housing price indices, numbers and volumes of house sales. Beyond these indices, Eurostat also publishes many economic, social and environmental statistics related to housing allowing analysis of trends and correlations as well as comparisons between countries and European averages. In particular, they aim at providing answers to questions on: How do we live? With indicators on (a) tenure status (owner or tenant), dwelling type (house, flat) by degree of urbanisation, (b) the size of housing, (c) the quality of housing and (d) the environmental impact of housing. What does housing cost? With indicators on (a) the evolution of house prices and rents and (b) housing affordability. What is the importance of the construction sector in the economy and land use? An overview of these statistics can be found in the following online publication released for the first time in December 2020: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/digpub/housing The presentation will guide to find the relevant information on the Eurostat website which is free of charge and can be consulted on https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/. |
| Keywords: | Housing Markets; housing statistics; price developments; social dimension of housing |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_34&r= |
| By: | Tea Lönnroth; Pauliina Krigsholm; Tuulia Puustinen; Heidi Falkenbach; Elias Oikarinen |
| Abstract: | Increasing amount of empirical evidence has shown that the local land use regulatory environment has substantial effects on the housing market. It is widely acknowledged, however, that measuring the degree of land use restrictiveness is challenging. The heterogeneity of regulations, as well as the unavoidable difficulty of assessing the relative importance of different types of regulations, are the primary reasons for that. Another often brought up shortage of the existing land use regulation measures is the lack of temporal dimension, which makes it difficult to separate the effects of regulation from other local characteristics that might correlate with land use regulation. This study is set to reassess how to measure the local land use regulatory environment, and possibly, to address some of the shortcomings previous studies have reported. Empirically, the focus of this study is on the Finnish planning system, where land policy and planning decisions made at the municipal level most strongly control land use. Within a set of legal boundaries, each municipality independently decides which land policy instruments to employ, and further, by utilizing the so-called planning monopoly, lays planning restrictions that guide the (residential) development of land. To construct a measure of the restrictiveness of local land use, this study combines data on municipal land use planning and policy decisions for some 30 largest cities in Finland derived from multiple sources. Interviews with key municipal representatives responsible for local land policy actions are used as a primary data source. The interviews covered several themes with the aim to capture differences in the land use policy and planning actions across cities. The study also utilizes official statistics and municipal documents, such as strategies of land use and development, land use agreements and financial documents for measuring and modeling the degree of local land use restrictiveness. Measuring the impact of land use regulation and planning on housing markets has been a significantly growing topic and the local land use regulatory environment is understood as an important contributor to the elasticity of housing supply. Yet, the formulation of a quantified measure for the restrictiveness of local regulation has received less attention, especially in the context of statutory planning systems. This study addresses this gap and outlines a new kind of approach to measure local land use environments that builds on data from multiple sources. |
| Keywords: | Housing Markets; Land use regulation; Restrictiveness measure |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_52&r= |
| By: | Alyson Burnett; Moira McCullough; Breyon Williams |
| Abstract: | This report describes findings from a study examining the effects on student achievement of the implementation of the Uncommon school model as a turnaround strategy for low-performing schools. |
| Keywords: | charter school, school choice, Investing in Innovation Fund, school turnaround |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:8fbff84be1044dceaf7870f2a4d23311&r= |
| By: | Matthew Pollock; Masaki Mori |
| Abstract: | Introduction: This study examines the determinants of herding in the U.S. housing market with the focus on the effect of psychological biases on herding. People are motivated to copy others due to a psychological need for social behaviour. If homebuyers see large local inequalities in homeownership, they will have a stronger desire to overconsume relative to areas with more equal housing distribution. This mimetic behaviour will therefore lead to higher levels of herding, with resultant poor economic outcomes. Therefore, we test if areas with more extreme distributions of housing, income and consumption (i.e. areas where people have greater degree of positional concern) will exhibit more extreme herding, while controlling for fundamental economic and housing market variables. The development of behavioural finance in the 1970s (Kahneman and Tversky 1979) and then its crossover into asset markets shortly after (Shiller 1982) has allowed behavioural factors in real estate to enjoy a growing research interest. It has been shown that an appreciation of sociological and psychological factors provides an understanding of market dynamics beyond the conventional efficient markets approach (West 1988, Lux 1995). Herding is defined when behaviour is correlated across individuals (Devenow and Welch 1996), especially where it leads to sub-optimal investment decisions and bubble formation. Herding can be rational if informational inefficiency and agency issues lead investors to copy others (Bikhchandani, Hirshleifer et al. 1998), or irrational when they are susceptible to psychological biases (Devenow and Welch 1996). One motivator for the presence of these psychological biases is the established economic presence of positional goods, whose value is derived from their social status and where the value is based on relative, rather than absolute, distribution. The overconsumption of positional goods creates negative externalities which have wider economic repercussions (Frank 2005). It has been shown that excessive social positional concerns lead to poor outcomes in physical and mental health (Frank 2008), and also sub-optimal investment decisions, such that people over-consume and over-leverage. Evidence for the presence of herding in institutional investors is mixed (Barber, Odean et al. 2009), and the research in direct residential markets is limited, however the latter has found some significant results (Hott 2012, Ngene, Sohn et al. 2017). The existing evidence suggests that higher levels of herding can lead to bubble formation, and the resulting welfare loss can be extensive (Deng, Hung et al. 2018), as most clearly seen in the fallout from the Global Financial Crisis. Considering the scale of residential property as an asset class (over $33 trillion in the USA alone), and the dual nature of housing as an investment asset and consumption good, then there is an obvious requirement for further research. Data and Methodology: Urban areas are based on the US Census Bureau definitions of metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) which are the 384 urban centres with a population greater than 50,000. In total they represent over 281 million inhabitants or 85% of the population. The actual house price data is taken from Zillow Research, and the data for social, economic, demographic and property variables is taken from the American Community Survey, administered by the Census Bureau. The time period tested is from 2005 until 2018, and so a panel approach has been used. We test the main hypothesis using the following model: CSAD=f(fundamental factors)+f(positional factors) + Where CSAD is the cross-sectional absolute deviation, a herding measure. The CSAD can be derived from the relationship between price changes in the overarching MSA and the underlying ZIP code locations. It is expected that areas with more extreme distributions of housing, income and consumption will also exhibit more extreme herding as a result, with these positional determinants being highly significant. Results and implications: The initial empirical results have highlighted the importance of MSA size in determining the drivers of herding behaviour, with smaller urban areas being more impacted by new housing supply and availability of housing finance, whilst larger cities are much more strongly impacted by the relative distribution of house prices. Areas with older housing stock on average exhibit lower levels of herding, which motivates an interest in the causal connection between development and herding behaviour. These results have motivated deeper investigation into the role of MSA size in determining herding behaviour, as well as local regulatory conditions and supply elasticities which, along with ownership structures, show evidence of interesting results. The inclusion of various market efficiency-based interaction variables as mechanisms for the propagation of herding behaviour will also add to the literature on this topic, which is of particular interest in property due to its unique market structure. The research has several important implications, firstly in aiding the identification of market signals which can assist with better informed market forecasting through a deeper understanding of market dynamics. In terms of portfolio construction and risk management, a better incorporation of social and economic drivers could result in superior risk-adjusted returns. |
| Keywords: | Behaviour; Herding; housing |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_67&r= |
| By: | Martin Berchtold; Detlef Kurth; Andreas Beulich; Lutz Eichholz; Marie Turgetto |
| Abstract: | The Corona Pandemic made it very clear that the city in which we live today, unexpectedly can no longer be used as we were used to. The “traditional” and long-accepted zoning and design of public spaces, such as squares, street spaces, parks or green spaces, has to be rethought, and adapted almost overnight. Distancing rules, quantity restrictions or behavior codes determine the new space usage and movement behavior in public spaces. It turns out that many places and situations are not designed for this new situation: Sidewalks are too narrow for the necessary distance, footprints in front of shops are too small, there is hardly any space between the parking spaces for the outdoor dining tables, which now must be further apart. Meanwhile, the wide lanes of car traffic are orphaned. Parks and green areas offer attractive employment opportunities in the fresh air with less risk of infection, but hardly manage to adequately distance groups of the permitted number of people from each other. The objective of the BMI-funded 'Nationale Stadtentwicklungspolitik'-project 'Open public space' is to analyze which potentials from current movement patterns and space usage in times of the pandemic can be used to create new open public spaces, streets and green spaces for resilient, liveable and walkable neighborhoods. Based on case studies and detailed image and movement data analysis, we analyze and create guidelines for urban design and public space design. The guidelines will be implemented in city centers, in a combination of digital and real-life designed tools, to create well-designed public spaces, which can be used by intuition and orientation, not by barriers and prohibition signs – and far beyond the pandemic. In the project, (geo) data and image specialists work together with scientists from the fields of urban planning and architecture, thereby creating an innovative and direct link and interaction between pattern analyzes of different data sources and practical scientific knowledge of urban planning and design. Various institutions are currently working on spatial science and planning issues relating to the corona epidemic . A broad-based derivation and development of design guidelines for public space from the systematic examination of image, video and tracking data with the aim of finding permanent solutions for cities worth living in, beyond the pandemic to research, however, is pending. The approach implements the question of what idea of a city we pursue - regarding the requirements for usage and movement behavior in public spaces upcoming now. Urban quality is based in particular on complexity, a high density of encounter and communication, as well as functional, social and cultural diversity – aspects that are being pushed back by the changing requirements, and which could be innovatively supported by “crisis-proof” design, with new approaches, concepts and instruments. Developing urban spaces that can synchronize “distant behavior” with the rich, complex, integrative idea of the city. |
| Keywords: | Design Guidelines; Public spaces; Resilient City; Space usage pattern analysis |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_160&r= |
| By: | Kwame Addae-Dapaah; Kristian Scrase |
| Abstract: | Foreign buyers of residential properties in London have been rightly or wrongly blamed for rising residential property prices in the city. Similarly the perceived social impact of the presence of foreign buyers in the London Housing market, such as gentrification and ghost neighbourhoods, has been a “celebrated” news in the media and one of the topical discourses in previous research on foreign buyers in the London market. Notwithstanding, there has been no rigorous study to establish that the presence of foreign buyers in the market indeed causes housing price inflation. This paper is therefore aimed at ascertaining the prevalence of foreign buyers housing price premium, if any, attributable to asymmetry of information between informed and uninformed residential property sellers, and whether any such premium is sustainable over time. The study leverages on the concepts and theories of information asymmetry and uses econometric models to analyse housing transaction data from the Land Registry and the Private Eye over the period of 2000 to 2014 inclusive. The analyses are based on the Broad Rental Market Areas and Post Code Sectors of London to ensure comparability of the houses under investigation. The preliminary results show that the presence of foreign buyers in the London housing market creates information asymmetry between informed and uninformed sellers to lead to statistically significant foreign buyers house price premium for virtually all the Broad Rental Market Areas of London. However the premium reduces over time as information gradually trickles through the market mechanism to the uninformed sellers group at the entry point of foreign buyers in the market. The results of the study would be of interest to developers, investors, fund providers and policy makers related to the London housing market as well as practitioners and researchers. |
| Keywords: | foreign buyersâ premium; Information Asymmetry; informed and uninformed sellers; London housing market |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_209&r= |
| By: | Margaret Bock; Alexander Cardazzi; Brad R. Humphreys |
| Abstract: | Road maintenance constitutes a significant component of public transportation spending at all levels of government. Formulation of efficient transportation infrastructure policy requires information about factors affecting road and traffic conditions. We generate the first causal evidence that decreasing pavement quality impacts vehicle crash rates and decreases average speed. Results from Instrumental Variable models using spatially and temporally disaggregated data from Federal-Aid Highway System (FAHS) roads in California show statistically and economically significant increases in vehicle crash rates and decreases in average vehicle speed caused by road damage. These impacts imply significant increases in social costs attributable to road damage. |
| JEL: | R41 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29176&r= |
| By: | Allison Orr; Cath Jackson; Joanna Stewart |
| Abstract: | Retailers, like many businesses, operate in a fast-moving competitive environment and need to rapidly change to keep pace with their competitors. There is nothing new in this but the nature, scale and pace of change has intensified in recent years with many retailers reported to be struggling to manage the rise in operational costs and the disruptive effects of technology, greater competition from online retailers who appear to operate more efficiently, changes in consumers’ spending habits and, more recently, the unsettling disturbance of business operations by the Covid pandemic restrictions. As a consequence of this prolonged period of change, many well-known high street retailers have entered administration or been forced to use firefighting measures to avoid bankruptcy. There is also the general recognition that many ‘bricks and mortar’ retailers are being forced to downsize their property portfolios as a way of reducing their overheads. Such store closures have a visible impact on the high street and one which is increasing as the number of vacant units continues to grow. The concern of policy-makers has also been well documented and debated. The sheer scale of the contraction in the retailing sector, an industry which dominated most urban economies, has resulted in obsolete building stock and the physical decline of these urban centres. The challenge is for them to find new ways to encourage and support the adaptation of urban centres into multi-functional places that are less dependent on a single land use and more resilient to future change. Yet, the effects of these urban changes and the implications for landlords have largely been ignored within the high street debate. This is surprising as many of the tactics being employed to make urban centres more attractive and competitive – such as the re-development of obsolete stock, experimentation with land use innovations, creation of mixed-use developments and the re-imaging of the public realm– rely heavily on private-sector investment. If policy-makers are going to succeed in encouraging future investment in the continued renewal and adaptive of urban centres they need a better understanding of the market changes experienced by property investors, and the impacts on the investment quality of retail investments and property ownership. This paper seeks to address this knowledge gap. It reports the findings from a larger ongoing project that is exploring the adaptation of the retailing sector using the five case study cites of Edinburgh, Glasgow, Hull, Liverpool and Nottingham. This stage of the study, using linked data from a number of secondary sources, examines the spatial changes that have occurred over time in the principal retailing areas of these cities. It does so by monitoring shifts in land use and heterogeneity of occupiers, and mapping the spatial patterns that have occurred in these land use changes as new developments have occurred before investigating the resultant changes in property investment behaviour. The paper ends by examining and discussing the consequence of these outcomes for the retail investment market, investors and the High Street. |
| Keywords: | Diversity; Land Use; Retail; Urban Change |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_60&r= |
| By: | Nicolas Mellinger; Lutz Eichholz; Wilko Manz |
| Abstract: | Autonomous vehicles are going to transform the peaceful coexistence of means of transport in urban areas. This development hat multiple effects on participants of the urban transport and the city itself. Overall, four trends can be observed: an increasing autonomous traffic in cities, a growing bicycle traffic due to adapted planning and social development, a revival of the living city and a technical upgrade of the vehicle fleet. These trends necessitate new concepts of planning and technic. This is where the research projects comes in. Project goals and contents: The goal of the project is to investigate and develop solutions for the coming challenges of bicycle traffic in cities in interaction with autonomous vehicles. In doing so, concerns of transport, urbanistic and technic are taken into account. Essential components are transport-related methods as surveys and test drives to recognize and avoid conflicts between bicycles and autonomous vehicles, urbanistic concepts to design cycle paths in urban areas with autonomous vehicles, technical systems in autonomous vehicles based machine learning to detect and predict movements of bicycles and algorithm development to track and predict trajectories of bicycles in urban infrastructure. Aspired project outcomes: Within the scope of the research project, the following outcomes are aspired. Based on the survey outcomes, recommendations to recognize and avoid conflicts are given. The survey outcomes themselves are also essential results of the project. Furthermore, a guideline for traffic an urban planning will be developed. The algorithm to track and predict trajectories of bicycle movements as well as the technical systems in autonomous to detect and track bicycles vehicles will be other important project outcomes. Target groups are planning and engineering offices as well as road construction and urban planning offices, vehicle constructors and startups. Present state of affairs: At the current state, different scenarios for interactions of bicycles with autonomous vehicles are developed and discussed in a project related advisory board. Based on the conclusions, the online survey was designed and completed. The survey is currently in an evaluation process. The outcomes of the survey evaluation will be presented on the ERES conference. Also different scenarios for urban design of bicycle paths are investigated and can be presented and discussed. The suitability of different road types for traffic with cyclists and autonomous vehicles is another important result. Furthermore, the algorithm to detect and track bicycles and other participants in traffic is created. First results of tests with the developed algorithm can be presented as well. |
| Keywords: | autonomous vehicles; bicycle traffic; road design; traffic safety |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_176&r= |
| By: | Mariam Hussain |
| Abstract: | Large-scale urban development projects in the post Global Financial Crisis (GFC) era are often assessed with a substantial focus on financially driven decision making by property market actors, above other considerations. In this contemporary period of constant renovation of cities anchored in deindustrialization, this focus is quickly interpreted as commodification a result of financial globalization and common associates, without thorough consideration of post crisis development from the market actor perspective, and their relative relationship to urban planning actors. The following research study assess the transition of the identity of the South Axis (Zuidas) financial business district in Amsterdam to a mixed-use neighbourhood that accelerated after the GFC, and examines what catalysts were in place for a more ‘flexible’, yet large scale, mixed-use development project to emerge. This location is distinct for two key reasons: the first, that Amsterdam has concentrated a record share and volume of foreign commercial real estate investment in the post-GFC era, and secondly that plans for high density Class A office space have been quickly replaced by residential complexes of a similar variety, maintaining a degree of standardization. This can be used to highlight that during this same period the commercial real estate sector has shifted from mono-functional nodes and single asset classes, to mixed-use and multi-asset portfolios, demonstrating that property market actors are actually moving closer to urban planning paradigms. Further trends such as walk-ability and human-scale design are also attributes that are appearing in the world of commercial real estate, principles that have been long advocated by the world of urban planning. The following research paper sets a qualitative analysis using actor interviews and planning documents along an evolving backdrop to dissuade the archetypal pure financial motivations of actors involved in the business of city building. |
| Keywords: | Mixed-use; Property Market; Real Estate Investment; Urban Planning |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_103&r= |
| By: | Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; von Berlepsch, Viola |
| Abstract: | Does past migration beget future migration? Do migrants from different backgrounds, origins and ethnicities, and separated by several generations always settle – in a path dependent way – in the same places? Is there a permanent separation between migration-prone and migration-averse areas? This paper examines whether that is the case by looking at the settlement patterns of two very different migration waves, that of Europeans at the end of the 19th and early 20th centuries and that of Latin Americans between the 1960s and the early 21st century. Using Census data aggregated at county level, we track the settlement pattern of migrants and assess the extent to which the first mass migration wave has determined the later settlement pattern of Latin American migrants to the US. The analysis, conducted using ordinary least squares, instrumental variable and panel data estimation techniques, shows that past US migration patterns create a path dependence that has consistently affected the geography of future migration waves. Recent Latin American migrants have flocked, once other factors are controlled for, to the same migration prone US counties where their European predecessors settled, in spite of the very different nature of both migration waves and a time gap of three to five generations. |
| Keywords: | counties; Europe; Latin America; long-term; migration; migration waves; US |
| JEL: | F22 J15 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2020–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:103973&r= |
| By: | Paolo Delle Site; André de Palma; Samarth Ghoslya (CY Cergy Paris Université, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | Peer-to-peer ridesharing, where drivers are also travellers, can alleviate congestion and emissions that plague cities by increasing vehicle occupancy. We propose a socially optimal ridesharing scheme, where a social planner matches passengers and drivers in a way that minimizes travel costs (travel time and fuel) plus environmental costs. The contribution helps in computing the socially optimal ridesharing schemes for networks of any topology within a static framework of route choice with exogenously fixed travel times. A linear programming problem is formulated to compute the optimal matchings. Existence, integrality and uniqueness properties are investigated. The social planner receives a payment from passengers and rewards drivers for the higher costs they bear. Passengers and drivers never incur a loss because travelling alone remains always an option, but matchings may need to be subsidised. The socially optimal matching solution without environmental costs is proved to satisfy the stability property according to which no pair of passenger and driver prefers each other to any of the current partners. In the Sioux Falls network, when 20% of individuals are willing to rideshare, with 80% of passengers travelling by car and 20% by public transport, 17.37% optimally do so, resulting in a 7.05% decrease in CO2 emissions on the all-travel-alone scenario. |
| Keywords: | environment, matching stability, optimization, ridesharing, socially optimal matching |
| JEL: | C78 R40 R48 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2021-17&r= |
| By: | Yujia He (Assistant Professor, Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce , University of Kentucky Technology.Author-Email: yujia.he@uky.edu); Angela Tritto (Adjunct Professor, Division of Public Policy, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Technology.Author-Email: tritto@ust.hk) |
| Abstract: | The pandemic has compounded urban megaprojects' exposure to political risk The pandemic also exposed the dire shortage of hard and soft infrastructure in modern cities Governments should therefore weigh building smart city from scratch vis-a-vis improving existing urban dwellings The case of Forest City shows that built-from-scratch smart city projects targeting wealthy foreigners need to adjust and cater to the needs of the local communities to contribute to a sustainable post-pandemic future. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hku:briefs:202156&r= |
| By: | Boeing, Geoff (Northeastern University); Besbris, Max; Wachsmuth, David; Wegmann, Jake |
| Abstract: | This article interprets emerging scholarship on rental housing platforms—particularly the most well-known and used short- and long-term rental housing platforms—and considers how the technological processes connecting both short-term and long-term rentals to the platform economy are transforming cities. It discusses potential policy approaches to more equitably distribute benefits and mitigate harms. We argue that information technology is not value-neutral. While rental housing platforms may empower data analysts and certain market participants, the same cannot be said for all users or society at large. First, user-generated online data frequently reproduce the systematic biases found in traditional sources of housing information. Evidence is growing that the information broadcasting potential of rental housing platforms may increase rather than mitigate sociospatial inequality. Second, technology platforms curate and shape information according to their creators' own financial and political interests. The question of which data—and people—are hidden or marginalized on these platforms is just as important as the question of which data are available. Finally, important differences in benefits and drawbacks exist between short-term and long-term rental housing platforms, but are underexplored in the literature: this article unpacks these differences and proposes policy recommendations. |
| Date: | 2021–08–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8jrfe&r= |
| By: | Ng, Matthew Kok Ming (University of New South Wales); Roper, Josephine; Pettit, Christopher; Lee, Chyi Lin |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the relationships between accessibility, income segregation, and house prices in the Greater Sydney Area. Sydney is found to have reasonably even employment accessibility, reflecting the increasingly polycentric nature of the modern city; however, it also shows considerable income segregation and variance in property prices between different parts of the city. Entropy is used to examine the diversity and mixing of different income groups. Finally, hedonic price models using ordinary least square and geographically-weighted regression techniques to show the differing effects of employment accessibility on house prices in different parts of the city. The results show that accessibility has small to negative effects on prices in the most valuable areas, suggesting that other effects such as recreational access and employment type/quality may be important to investigate further in this context. |
| Date: | 2021–08–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:2psk5&r= |
| By: | Jaller, Miguel |
| Abstract: | The curbside is valuable real estate in cities, providing private vehicle parking, pick-up/drop-off areas, public transit stops, freight loading/unloading zones, and space for pedestrians and bicyclists. Shortages and poor management of curb space can cause congestion and increased emissions due to vehicles searching for parking and can create unsafe conditions from vehicles double parking. Traditional curbside planning strategies have relied on land use–based demand estimates to allocate access priority to the curb, such as pedestrian and transit in residential areas and commercial vehicles in commercial and industrial zones. Recently, pilots in San Francisco, Washington, D.C., and elsewhere have used new technologies to provide information to users about space availability or dynamically price the curb. Researchers at the University of California, Davis conducted a review of practices in curbside management, and they conducted simulations to evaluate the impact of different management and design strategies on travel time, congestion, vehicle travel, and emissions in residential, commercial, and mixed-use neighborhoods in San Francisco. This policy brief summarizes the findings from that research and provides policy implications. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Case studies, Complete streets, Curb side parking, Delivery service, Land use, Literature reviews, Parking demand, Ridesourcing, Simulation, Urban areas |
| Date: | 2021–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt7q69b37f&r= |
| By: | Lawrence Souza; Tayln Mitchell; Alicia Becker; Hannah Macstata |
| Abstract: | Housing is an essential factor in determining the quality of lives, the stability of communities, and the health of national economies. Its importance to society is underscored by the fact that housing accounts for a significant portion of personal-public consumption expenditures and gross private domestic investment in most North American and European countries. The housing sector is a leading indicator of economic activity, and a lagging indicator of social welfare. The public and private housing sectors are extremely sensitive to changes in monetary and fiscal conditions, and social, political and welfare policies. In most industrialized countries housing quality is high; however, affordability and access have become a major issue. In developing countries, longstanding problems of low quality and high relative cost have been exacerbated by high rates of population growth and country-to-city migration, and by urban infrastructures that are ill equipped to accommodate residential growth. Direct government assistance for housing in both industrialized and developing countries generally has been more extensive than in the United States. With the adoption of housing acts (Housing Act of 1949), the United States and other North American and European countries have formally pledged itself to the goal of providing 'a decent home and a suitable living environment for every family.' Nevertheless, the definition of what is 'decent' has varied according to economic conditions, political climate, and prevailing tastes. Furthermore, in most European countries the responsibility for producing housing and delivering housing services relies on both the public and private sectors; while in the United States, the responsibility for producing housing and delivering housing services remains almost exclusively in the private sector. This first section of this paper will discuss housing policy and institutions under various theories: functionalism and stratification, modernization, neo Marxian, and institutionalism. The second section of this paper will categorize and explore similarities and differences between housing policy and performance under various welfare regimes: social democratic (Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, and Norway), liberal (United States, Canada, and United Kingdom), conservative-corporatist (Germany and France), and Latin-conservative-corporatist (Italy and Greece) regimes. The last section of this report analyzes economic, demographic and housing statistics for each regime. The goal is to identify structural and fundamental differences between housing policies in various welfare state regimes. Discussion of results, conclusions and recommendations, and anticipated usefulness of results also follow. |
| Keywords: | Comparative Housing Economics; Comparative Housing Policy; Comparative Housing Politics; Urban Housing Policy and Economics |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_202&r= |
| By: | Carmen Cantuarias; Jeffrey Blain; Radmila Pineau |
| Abstract: | Our research project aims at raising awareness about the value of biodiversity and urban ecosystem services (UES) for the French real estate market, in the private residential housing. Public perception of the environmental risks rose sharply over the last decade. What is the perception of biodiversity and UES in the real estate market? The French Observatory of Sustainable Real Estate analyzed the priorities of employees and companies. The issue of biodiversity was considered as important as water and human rights, but well below energy, business ethics, corporate social responsibility, risk management policy, territorial development, mobility, or comfort. Using GIS data and economic evaluation, by hedonic price methods, we assess the isolated contribution of the explanatory variables of biodiversity and UES on the price of real estate. We analyze the variation of the value for three urban ecosystem services (IDEFESE Project, 2019)—flood control, proximity to green spaces and refreshment—on the price of real estate when a property changes ownership. Our modeling and mapping focus on the price of transaction (€/m2) at the communal scale from 2014 to 2019. The main variables are internal characteristics of housing (area, kind of housing, heating), external characteristics (accessibility and infrastructure, economic, social, and physical environment such as air pollution, noise), and biodiversity indicators and urban ecosystem services for the Ile-de-France region. Moreover, we compare environmental values on the enhancement of green spaces, and their impact on residential choices. These studies are very useful for real estate developers, because they enable them to promote green spaces, and municipalities to become more attractive. |
| Keywords: | environmental values; hedonic price; urban biodiversity perception; Urban ecosystem services |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_185&r= |
| By: | Barajas, Jesus |
| Abstract: | Transportation inequities, particularly in the United States, result in part from historical and contemporary racism in planning, policy, urban development, decision making, and societal institutions. They have limited the mobility and access to opportunity for Black, Indigenous, and people of color, and shaped the ways that they travel. This chapter reviews the literature on racial and ethnic identity in travel behavior, examining the history and claims of transportation injustice. The chapter explores the barriers that historically marginalized communities experience as a result of disproportionate policing, safety and security issues, and neighborhood othering and belonging—that is, inviting suspicion because a person appears to be “out of place” in a neighborhood. It concludes by making the case for why transportation planners must consider race and racism explanatory factors in travel and why race-neutral planning processes exacerbate disparities. |
| Date: | 2021–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:unmkx&r= |
| By: | Esra Keskin; Yeim Tanrvermi; Harun Tanrivermis |
| Abstract: | The need for housing has continued to increase rapidly due to migration and population growth. The excess demand for urban centres in particular has led to an increase in land prices and therefore the transition to tall buildings has accelerated. The housing ownership rate for households in the urban areas is observed to be 60%, and investment in housing acquisition has been rapidly increased over the last 10 years. In addition, households with more than one residence in cities or second housing investments had increased continually. With the increase in high-rise buildings over time, management problems also began to arise. In order to meet the social needs of the owners sitting in high-rise buildings, special arrangements were needed to address the problems arising from the existence of areas subject to common area use of real estate. In order to solve the existing problems, the Law No. 634 dated 23.06.1965 were enacted and come into force and then the amendment of the Law No. 5711 with the title of “Special Provisions Concerning Condominium Buildings” together with the Law No. 634 article 66 and other clauses have been added. Management of detached housing, multi-storey housing and sheltered sites and co-operative sites is carried out by the management chosen by the floor owners board according to the Law No. 634.Nevertheless, there are significant problems in the management of common areas by floor owners in terms of service delivery, quality of service and compliance with legislation. It is not possible for floor owners to be experts in real estate law, facility, and real estate management in general and to provide management services in accordance with the legislation. In the last two decades, it is observed that different models are applied together in the management of housing structures due to the increasing management problems and the changing of nature of housing investments. These are such as sites managed by floor owners, real estate in which management services are partially or completely outsourced, and facilities managed by cooperatives. In according to building regulations such as; parking, elevator, waste water discharge, energy performance, thermal insulation, shelter, central heating, fire protection, annual management fee payment, notification law and work times regulations, professional practices in building management is missing and need to be implemented to fil the gap. In the field study, the results of in-depth interviews, surveys and observations made with the buildings and site managers in the northern part of Ankara Urban Transformation Project and Dikmen Valley Urban Transformation Project were evaluated. In the buildings and site managers’ survey; questions were asked regarding the demographic characteristics of the interviewees, the formation of the management bodies, the management model of the site, management problems and development opportunities. In this way, attention was paid into analyzing the management of condominium buildings in the transformation areas, identifying the problems that restrict development opportunities, and conducting interviews within the framework of questions prepared to analyze the approaches of managers and users to management of condominium buildings. In the case of Turkey, it is observed that managers were chosen by the floor owners in many housing projects. The chosen manager is usually coming from one of the floor owners, but in some cases he or she may come from outside and usually a non-professional. However, the management of condominium buildings is also an area that requires some expertise to deal with. Leaving the management of many floor owners and structures with common and joint ownership areas to persons with no legal expertise raises many problems in practice. As a result of poor management practices, there are losses in collection management fees and value losses due to the increase in vacancy rates. In the projects where management is carried out by a facility management firm and expertise, it is seen that existing problems are resolved easily and the demand for the projects increases. Particularly in the complex buildings or super structure with social facilities, different security gates and personnel, it has encountered that there is a problem of high dues and costs which must be reduced from execution of management by a facility management company makes an effective difference in solving existing problems. The fact that the management of the mass housing by a facility management company brings a higher burden in terms of cost, it is seen that the management of these real estate by facility managers provides higher profit gains in the long run. However, in small housing projects, the difference in the tax rate is a deterrent to the transfer of management to a professional facility management company. Lack of adequate knowledge and experience of managers chosen among floor owners or from outside; personnel and heating costs, leasing of common areas, etc., causes wrong decisions in many aspects and causes cost increases in the long run. When the selected two large mass housing settlements in Ankara province were examined, it is concluded that the success of the facility management has an important role in the formation of brand value. In recent years, the demand for brand housing has increased. It is observed that the success in facility management was influential in the increase in demand of housing investment. In addition, the management of facilities by professional companies is important to ensure the sustainability of residential buildings. It has been found that facility management, which is seen as an interdisciplinary field of study, has become a requirement in residences and additional social and commercial buildings within the framework of the examples studied, has a direct effect on raising the satisfaction ratings of residents and in particular increasing the value of investment. |
| Keywords: | economics of housing investments; facility management and urban transformation area; housing; Housing management |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_173&r= |
| By: | Yassien Bachtal; Felix Gauger; Andreas Pfnür; Benjamin Wagner |
| Abstract: | The way work is physically organized in a society is subject to constant change. While life and work took place in one place before industrialization (First Place), work shifted to the office with a growing proportion of knowledge-intensive activities (Second Place). Due to the Corona-Pandemic, work for many knowledge workers shifted back home quickly. Before COVID-19 work from home was limited to individual cases or to a few days. While some studies have looked at the office real estate factors influencing work success, there are hardly any studies analyzing real estate factors and their effects on work success when working from home. The contact restrictions since March 2020 now allow large-scale examinations of how knowledge workers work from home. The aim of the paper is to identify dependency structures between real estate factors and success factors in working from home. Specifically, the direction and size of the effects of the individual real estate factors on satisfaction and productivity in working from home are quantified. Based on a literature research, important real estate related factors are identified that influence the success of work in general. This is followed by a quantitative survey of knowledge workers in Germany who have already gained experience in working from home. Multivariate analyzes are carried out, focusing on satisfaction and productivity as success factors for work from home. First results, by using mean value comparisons and correlation analyzes, suggest that property-related factors of the home in particular are closely related to the success in working from home. While the office workplace is explicitly developed for the purpose of efficient work, work from home takes place in a location that is not designed for this purpose. The study provides important implications on how future housing should be planned and designed to make working from home sustainable. |
| Keywords: | Real Estate Factors; Satisfaction; Work from Home; Work Success |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_36&r= |
| By: | Lukas Althoff; Fabian Eckert; Sharat Ganapati; Conor Walsh |
| Abstract: | We show that cities with higher population density specialize in high-skill service jobs that can be done remotely. The urban and industry bias of remote work potential shaped the COVID-19 pandemic’s economic impact. Many high-skill service workers started to work remotely, withdrawing spending from big-city consumer service industries dependent on their demand. As a result, low-skill service workers in big cities bore most of the recent pandemic’s economic impact. Our findings have broader implications for the distributional consequences of the U.S. economy’s transition to more remote work. |
| JEL: | O33 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29181&r= |
| By: | Barajas, Jesus |
| Abstract: | This study asks whether deficiencies in transportation are associated with disproportionate policing in Chicago using the case of cycling. I examine how the number of bicycle citations issued per street segment are influenced by the availability of bicycle facilities and street characteristics, controlling for crash incidence, police presence, and neighborhood characteristics. Tickets were issued 8 times more often per capita in majority Black tracts and 3 times more often in majority Latino tracts compared to majority white tracts. More tickets were issued on major streets, but up to 85% fewer were issued when those streets had bike facilities, which were less prevalent in Black and Latino neighborhoods. Tickets were not associated with bicycle injury-crashes and inversely associated with vehicle injury-crashes. Infrastructure inequities compound the effects of racially-biased policing in the context of transportation safety strategies. Remedies include the removal of traffic enforcement from safe systems strategies and equitable investment in cycling. |
| Date: | 2021–08–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:wszgv&r= |
| By: | Barbero, Javier; Mandras, Giovanni; Rodríguez-Crespo, Ernesto; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés |
| Abstract: | Using a novel database of regional trade flows between 267 European regions for 2013, this paper examines how government quality affects trade between European Union (EU) regions. The results of a structural gravity cross-sectional analysis of trade show that trade across EU regions is highly influenced by differences in regional government quality. This influence varies by both sector of economic activity and the level of economic development of the region. The results indicate that if the less developed regions of the EU want to engage in greater interregional trade, improving their institutional quality is a must. |
| Keywords: | quality of government; institutions; regional policy; gravity model of trade; structural estimation |
| JEL: | L81 |
| Date: | 2021–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:108211&r= |
| By: | Kalra, Aarushi |
| Abstract: | How does ethnic violence and subsequent segregation shape children's lives? Using exogenous variation in communal violence due to a Hindu nationalist campaign tour across India, I show that violence displaces Muslims to segregated neighbourhoods. Surprisingly, I find that post-event, Muslim primary education levels are higher in cities that were more susceptible to violence. For cohorts enrolling after the riots, the probability of attaining primary education decreases by 2.3% every 100 kilometres away from the campaign route. I exploit differences in the planned and actual route to show that this is due to greater spatial cohesion within communities threatened by violence. |
| Date: | 2021–08–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:rzjct&r= |
| By: | Marcelo Cajias; Willwersch Jonas; Lorenz Felix; Franz Fuerst |
| Abstract: | Machine Learning (ML) can detect complex relationships to solve problems in various research areas. To estimate real estate prices and rents, ML represents a promising extension to the hedonic literature since it is able to increase predictive accuracy and is more flexible than the standard regression-based hedonic approach in handling a variety of quantitative and qualitative inputs. Nevertheless, its inferential capacity is limited due to its complex non-parametric structure and the ‘black box’ nature of its operations. In recent years, research on Interpretable Machine Learning (IML) has emerged that improves the interpretability of ML applications. This paper aims to elucidate the analytical behaviour of ML methods and their predictions of residential rents applying a set of model-agnostic methods. Using a dataset of 58k apartment listings in Frankfurt am Main (Germany), we estimate rent levels with the eXtreme Gradient Boosting Algorithm (XGB). We then apply Permutation Feature Importance (PFI), Partial Dependence Plots (PDP), Individual Conditional Expectation Curve (ICE) and Accumulated Local Effects (ALE). Our results suggest that IML methods can provide valuable insights and yield higher interpretability of ‘black box’ models. According to the results of PFI, most relevant locational variables for apartments are the proximity to bars, convenience stores and bus station hubs. Feature effects show that ML identifies non-linear relationships between rent and proximity variables. Rental prices increase up to a distance of approx. 3 kilometer to a central bus hub, followed by steep decline. We therefore assume tenants to face a trade-off between good infrastructural accessibility and locational separation from the disamenities associated with traffic hubs such as noise and air pollution. The same holds true for proximity to bar with rents peaking at 1 km distance. While tenants appear to appreciate nearby nightlife facilities, immediate proximity is subject to rental discounts. In summary, IML methods can increase transparency of ML models and therefore identify important patterns in rental markets. This may lead to a better understanding of residential real estate and offer new insights for researchers as well as practitioners. |
| Keywords: | Explainable Artifical Intelligence; housing; Machine Learning; Non parametric hedonic models |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_104&r= |
| By: | Vsevolod Nikolaiev; Andrii Shcherbyna |
| Abstract: | The report reflects the authors' viewpoint in discussions concerning New Housing Policy Concept in Ukraine. The housing sector in Ukraine has the following specific features: residents of apartment buildings have received their flats mainly through free privatization: 99,2% of households owns a housing; 89% of households live in buildings constructed before 1990-th which are in need of expensive major repair; the financial sources of major financing are not identified; professional home management is only emerging and focused on current needs; joint shared ownership on building and unidentified land property rights are not effective. Such housing management system shows a conflict of interests between residents as consumers of services as well as homeowners. The vast majority of Ukrainian households are insolvent in paying for utilities. Government subsidies have increased from UAH 19 billion in 2015 to UAH 74 billion in 2018 and must be reduced to UAH 39 billion in 2021. The population housing utilities debt remains still UAH 66 billion at the end of 2020 (73% of the national monthly wages fund). The provision of massive housing subsidies to almost half of the households contradicts with their real property value and leaves the problem of financing the renovation of the housing stock unresolved. The Government of Ukraine should develop and approve a New Housing Policy Concept. We have proposed to take into account the following recommendations for improving housing management in the document. The state, as well as the local government bodies must participate in the financing of the first major repair of houses constructed before 1990, in a proportion to be determined according to the age and technical condition of the house. To retain ownership of the home, another share must be funded by the home co-owners. This provides for the right to determine the ownership or use of land and to include in the management of the homes of a reasonable component for further repairs. Alternatively, the possibility of denying homeowners the rights to own a house that will pass to the community or other efficient private owners is offered. In order to carry out the functions of building management and facilities management, it is proposed to consolidate the co-owners' organizations in the associations, to create a fund for capital repairs and to use it for the gradual financing of buildings renovation. To manage the real estate assets of co-owners, it is proposed to introduce and support by the managers the services of insurance, loans and other asset operations. In addition, it is necessary to establish requirements for the capitalization of housing companies as assets managers, enhancing their role in providing payment for housing and communal services using financial instruments of asset management. As a large number of apartment buildings do not have the necessary documentation, it is suggested that inventory and periodic inspection of the buildings to be carried out digitally by managers. At the same time, it is planned to develop information models of typical houses, reuse projects of their repair. For developers and house managers the implementation of life cycle costing and revenue accounting are planned and their reporting to data bases. In order to withdraw the rental housing market from the shadows, it is suggested to introduce accounting and reporting of owners for renting apartments (premises) and monitoring by the managers of the use of the premises of the house. In addition, to keep the control of uninhabited housing and determine the rules for its maintenance. In the implementation of these proposals, management companies, in the case of investing their own funds in major repairs, modernization and reconstruction of buildings can acquire, in the long term, into the ownership of the houses under their management. |
| Keywords: | Financing; Ownership; Policy; repair |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_50&r= |
| By: | Maria Laura Di Tommaso; Dalit Contini; Dalila De Rosa; Francesca Ferrara; Daniela Piazzalunga; Ornella Robutti |
| Abstract: | We implement a teaching methodology aimed at improving primary school children’s mathematical skills. The methodology, grounded in active and cooperative learning, focuses on peer interaction, sharing of ideas, learning from mistakes, and problem solving. We evaluate the causal effect of the intervention on the gender gap in mathematics in Italy with a randomized controlled trial. The treatment significantly improves girls’ math performance (0.14 s.d.), with no impact on boys, and reduces the math gender gap by more than 40%. The effect is stronger for girls with high pre-test scores. |
| Keywords: | Gender gap, Mathematics, School achievement, Primary school, Active learning, Teaching methodologies, Randomized controlled trial |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J16 C93 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trn:utwprg:2021/11&r= |
| By: | Duncan Chaplin |
| Abstract: | On Wednesday, August 18, 2021, Mathematica provided the DC State Board of Education Board with testimony that highlighted how the DC School reforms of 2007 impacted student achievement. |
| Keywords: | DC school reforms, math, reading, student achievement |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:385592168f984573b46d6a4a667d0836&r= |
| By: | Cath Jackson; Victoria Lawson; Allison Orr |
| Abstract: | There is a large and diverse range of stakeholders with interests in the city centre. Yet, despite this diversity, they are seen to share a common desire, or aspiration, for resilience. There is diversity in how aspirations for resilience are envisioned, including, variously, the city centre as a hub for economic growth; a capital investment opportunity providing returns to meet obligations; commercial accommodation to enable sustainable business opportunities; a community hub for socialising; an attractive environment for visiting and spending time; a focus for local identity; and so on. Despite this diversity in interests, and the increasing challenges faced by all stakeholders, the common aspiration for resilience serves to bind the components into an assemblage. This research, therefore, sees the city centre through assemblage thinking and seeks to apply this theory to explore the ways that city centre assemblages may function to foster economic growth, or to hinder adaptive capacity. An assemblage approach has not been utilised in the commercial real estate discipline previously. It is adopted here to best reflect the complexities of the real estate market and wider environment, and to explore relationships between components of the assemblage (both human and non-human), to identify characteristics and capacities of elements and relationships that can hinder, and those that can enable, the adaptive capacity of city centres. Here we present insights into how the city centre can be explored using assemblage thinking, what insights are enabled by adopting this approach and some preliminary results of empirical analyses. Utilising examples of change across five UK case study cities (Edinburgh, Glasgow, Hull, Liverpool and Nottingham) the involvement of land and property owners and developers are explored to reveal the ways that social structures may work to create unique retailing destinations, or to hinder adaptive capacity. |
| Keywords: | assemblage theory; case studies; retail sector |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_68&r= |
| By: | Goodness C. Aye (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa); Christina Christou (School of Economics and Management, Open University of Cyprus, 2252, Latsia, Cyprus); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa); Christis Hassapis (School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Cyprus, P.O. Box 20537, CY-1678 Nicosia, Cyprus) |
| Abstract: | This study examined contagion involving the aggregate and regional housing markets of the United States (US) with other asset markets using multichannel tests during the 2007-2008 global financial crisis based on a unique high-frequency, i.e., daily data set. To arrive at bias free results several contagion tests: the Forbes and Rigobon (FR) correlation test for contagion, the Fry, Martin and Tang coskewness (CS) test for contagion, the Hsiao cokurtosis (CK) test for contagion and the Hsiao covolatility (CV) test for contagion were employed. At the country level, the linear (correlation) channel indicates that contagion is present from (to) average housing returns to (from) the S&P500, with the correlation contagion also running from average housing returns to REITs. Moreover, the coskewness, cokurtosis and covolatility channels are strongly active with contagion running only from average housing returns to the S&P500, bond returns and REITs. At the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) level, our results indicate that the linear (correlation) channel of contagion is relatively inactive, but the coskewness, cokurtosis and covolatility channels are strongly active with contagion running mostly from housing returns to the S&P500. Our results have important implications for investor and policymakers, given the possibility of differential results based on tests and whether we rely on regional or aggregate data. |
| Keywords: | Contagion, real estate, multichannel tests, United States |
| JEL: | C12 C58 E44 G01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202159&r= |
| By: | Ann-Christin Sreball |
| Abstract: | Stereotypes of the „dull municipality“ vs. the „cash-hungry developer“ persist and hamper the collaboration – especially if municipal administrations tend to focus on problems rather than solutions or if developers disregard local specifics and focus solely on their return expectations. Yet, it seems municipalities and developers repositioning themselves in Germany: While municipal administrations digitize and keep design processes in-house again, developers shift their focus from specific asset classes to development of entire neighbourhoods. Moreover, planning tasks to design sustainable projects are becoming increasingly complex requiring more coordination between both parties. Therefore, understanding the perspectives and needs of both stakeholders will promote a more constructive collaboration. A qualitative study with more than 30 experts from planning agencies, councillors, project development companies, services providers and organisations, revealed 3 types of factors shaping the project collaboration: Unique soft, unique hard and generalising factors, with unique referring to factors applicable to one specific person or project context only. Some examples for “unique hard factors” are urban planning framework conditions or local real estate market structures, and “unique soft factors” such as local decision-making structures, the professional background or past experiences of the persons involved as well as the matter of mutual trust. Generalising factors can be grouped into promoting and impeding, such as frequent and transparent communication or vague objectives of urban planning. One of the areas of tension lies, e.g., in the detail level of information. If the developer approaches the administration with already made concepts and the final floor plan, the necessary room to jointly develop the project is lacking from the very beginning. Municipalities admit that they need to articulate their urban development objectives more clearly to provide developers with the appropriate framework conditions for the project. The conference contribution will highlight more findings of the interviews in detail. Drawn conclusions and recommended actions will be put up for discussion. |
| Keywords: | Collaboration; Communication; Sustainable Urban Development |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_152&r= |
| By: | Nathan Delacrétaz; Bruno Lanz; Amir Delju; Etienne Piguet |
| Abstract: | Rural regions are more exposed to rainfall shocks, notably through agriculture, and understanding how local population adapt to changes in the climate is an important policy challenge. In this paper we exploit longitudinal data for Turkish provinces from 2008 to 2018 together with precipitation records over more than 30 years to study how shocks to 12-month standard precipitation index (SPI) affect out-migration across rural, transitional and urban regions, and we document how these impacts are channeled through local income, agricultural GDP, and conflicts. Based on fixed effect regressions controlling for unobserved heterogeneity across provinces and over time, we find evidence that negative SPI shocks are associated with higher out-migration in rural provinces. We also show that the relationship is fully mediated by per capita GDP, whereas agricultural GDP and conflicts do not play a role. |
| Keywords: | out-migration; climate change; rainfall; urbanization; per capita income; agriculture; conflicts |
| JEL: | F22 O15 R23 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irn:wpaper:21-06&r= |
| By: | Martin, Elliot; Stocker, Adam; Cohen, Adam; Shaheen, Susan |
| Abstract: | The Mobility on Demand (MOD) Sandbox Demonstration Program provides a venue through which integrated MOD concepts and strategies, supported through local partnerships, are demonstrated in real-world settings. For the 11 MOD Sandbox Demonstration projects, an independent evaluation was conducted that includes an analysis of project impacts from performance measures provided by the project partners and an assessment of the business models used. This document presents the results from the independent evaluation of the Dallas Area Rapid Transit (DART) First and Last Mile Solution MOD Sandbox Demonstration project. Evaluated were hypotheses that explored project impacts on travel behavior, user experiences, first and last mile to public transit accessibility, service quality for passengers with disabilities, and costs. The project improved first and last mile connectivity to DART transit, increased satisfaction among DART transit users, enhanced service for passengers with disabilities, and increased the geographic scope of DART transit service in the Plano area. In addition, wait and travel times for passengers with and without disabilities reflected similar distributions. The subsidy per rider of GoLink services was lower than the low-ridership fixed-route transit services that it replaced in Plano, but it was not lower than the subsidy for DART fixed-route transit in the overall Dallas region. DART project team members were interviewed to better understand challenges, barriers, successes, and broader lessons learned from the project, representing agency personnel from the offices of Innovation, Service Planning, Scheduling, Paratransit Operations, and Marketing. Lessons learned revealed the importance of having pre-planned, ready-to-go projects with committed partners, flexible contracting terms, metrics for adjusting spatial and temporal service coverage (including terminating service if appropriate), vehicle right-sizing, and understanding customer needs. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Mobility on Demand, MOD, sandbox, shared mobility, mobility as a service, independent evaluation, public transit, first and last mile, microtransit, transportation network companies, TNC |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt7hz5r5zr&r= |
| By: | Julian Granna; Wolfgang Brunauer; Stefan Lang |
| Abstract: | We a) compute a Time Dummy Method index based on a Generalized Additive Model allowing for smooth effects of the metric covariates on the price utilizing the pooled data set. We b) construct an Imputation Approach model, where we fit a regression model separately for each year. Our work aims at constructing a global model that captures relevant interactions of the covariates with time, where time intervals are selected on a model basis. We therefore c) fit a model-based recursive partitioning tree to partition the time span and to account for parameter instability. We d) fit a global model, in which we interact the covariates with the time periods obtained from the recursive partitioning tree. We analyze the respective performance and choose the optimal model with respect to out-of-sample prediction accuracy. We find that parameter instability over time plays a role as the Imputation Approach outperforms the Time Dummy Model. However by choosing model-based interactions with time, we are able to reduce both model complexity and out-of-sample prediction error. We find the interaction between location and time appears to be the most important. Our work provides a model-based approach to account for parameter instability over time in the context of hedonic price models and index construction. We are able to reduce bias compared with standard Time Dummy Method indices, and receive less volatile results compared with the typical Imputation Approach. Further, our assessment no longer naively selects time periods that are interacted with the other explaining variables. We expect these improvements to be useful especially for smaller, e. g. regional data sets. |
| Keywords: | Hedonic regression; house price measurement; parameter instability; semiparametric models |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_175&r= |
| By: | Nils Neukranz |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of municipal land use planning on land values in Hamburg, Germany during the time period 2010-2018. While the study of zoning has been well documented in the United States (McDonald & McMillen, 1993 & 1998; Asbere & Huffmann, 1991; Glaeser & Ward, 2009; Kok et al., 2014), this is the first study that directly examines zoning in Germany. Since the principles of municipal zoning vary considerably between traditional American and German applications (Hirt, 2007), this study aims to bridge the prevailing literature gap and extend the research to Europe. Unlike most previous studies, this research also examines the impact of rezoning as opposed to initial zoning (Munneke, 2005). The German land use plan (Flächennutzungsplan) discloses the long-term land use and forms the basis of the legally binding development plans (Bebauungspläne) of the city. Over the 2010-2018 time frame, the city of Hamburg has issued 53 changes to its land use plan that have resulted in adaptations to the development plans of the city. These changes can be broken down to 115 individual changes by type, which are grouped to determine the overall impact of different types of land use changes. They range from new green spaces to residential, commercial and mixed zones. Since the zoning classification is provided by one source, a comparable definition of zoning is applied throughout. Fixed-effects panel estimation is used to identify the impact of 4 different types of land-use changes on adjacent land values. The impact analysis is done for land values of different property types, including single and multiple family homes, stores and office buildings, and for different distance buffers. Using time lags the responses at different periods in time after the announcement are explored. |
| Keywords: | Land use regulation; Land Values; Urban Economics; Urban Land Zoning |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_63&r= |
| By: | Benjamin Wagner; Andreas Pfnür |
| Abstract: | In the current real estate transformation, both the real estate value creation system and its business models are changing. For real estate developers in particular, the need to adapt their own business models is becoming apparent. Therefore, this research project examines where the strongest influences occur in the environment of real estate developers and the effects of these structural changes on real estate project developments. The purpose is to highlight the strategic influence of the changes taking place as well as the resulting need for strategic action for business model innovations.For this purpose, we use a mixed method approach. First, we use graph theory and social network analysis to determine which stakeholders have the strongest influence on real estate developers. The data basis is a quantitative survey of 249 decision-makers in the real estate industry. Based on this, we conduct 28 semi-structured interviews with relevant stakeholders in real estate development in order to describe and contextualize the changes and actions that have an impact and to derive the concrete need for action.The results show that real estate developers, as central actors in the real estate transformation, are strongly affected, while at the same time they are also the source of significant influences. Changing occupant requirements increase the demand for holistic services provided by developers. Cooperation between developers and occupiers helps to adapt existing space to the current requirements of new working environments and at the same time provides potential for developing innovative forms of space provision in the sense of space-as-a-service. In order to be able to offer holistic solutions for space provision, an integration of real estate value-added stages is emerging. For developers, digital technologies provide potentials to bundle services as a central real estate player, although uncertainties and a lack of standardization still pose hurdles.The findings help to understand the change processes of the real estate industry transformation more profoundly. For real estate developers, the results provide strategic options for adapting their business models due to changing business conditions. |
| Keywords: | real estate business model innovation; real estate transformation; Real-Estate-as-a-Service; Social Network Analysis |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_35&r= |
| By: | Juergen Deppner; Marcelo Cajias; Wolfgang Schäfers |
| Abstract: | Aim of research: Real estate markets are featured with a spatial dimension that is pivotal for the economic value of housing. The inherent spatial dependence in the underlying price determination process cannot be simply overlooked in linear hedonic model specifications, as this would render spurious results (see Anselin, 1988; Can and Megbolugbe, 1997; Basu and Thibodeau, 1998). Guidance on how to account for spatial dependence in linear regression models is vast and remains subject of many contributions to the hedonic and spatial econometric literature (see LeSage and Pace, 2009; Anselin, 2010; Elhorst, 2014). Moving from the parametric paradigm of hedonic regression methods to the universe of non-parametric statistical learning methods such as decision trees, random forests, or boosting techniques, literature has brought forth an increasing body of evidence that such algorithms are capable of providing a superior predictive performance for complex non-linear and multi-dimensional regression problems, including various applications to house price estimation (e.g. Mayer et al., 2019; Pace and Hayunga, 2020; Bogin and Shui, 2020). However, in contrast to linear models, little attention has been paid to the implications of spatial dependence in house prices for the statistical validity of error estimates of machine learning algorithms although independence of the data is implicitly assumed (see Roberts et al., 2017; Schratz et al., 2019). Our study aims at investigating the role of spatial autocorrelation (SAC) on the accuracy assessment of algorithmic hedonic methods, thereby benchmarking spatially conscious machine learning approaches to linear and spatial hedonic methods. Study design and methodology: Machine learning algorithms learn the relationship between the response and the regressors autonomously without requiring any a-priori specifications about their functional form. As their high flexibility makes such approaches prone to overfitting, resampling strategies such as k-fold cross validation are applied to approximate a models out-of-sample predictive performance. During resampling, the observations are randomly partitioned into mutually exclusive training and test subsets, whereby the predictor is fitted on the training data and evaluated on the test data. SAC can be accounted for using spatial resampling strategies which attempt to reduce SAC between training and test data through a modification in the splitting process. Instead of randomly partitioning the data which implicitly assumes their independence, spatially clustered partitions are created using the observations coordinates (see Brenning, 2012). We train and evaluate tree-based algorithms on a pooled cross-section of asking rents in Germany using both, random as well as spatial partitioning and subsequently forecast out-of-sample data to assess the bias in the in-sample error estimates associated with SAC. The results are benchmarked to well-specified ordinary least squares and spatial autoregressive frameworks to compare the models generalizability. Originalty and implications: Applying machine learning to spatial data without accounting for SAC provides the predictor with information that is assumed to be unavailable during training, which may lead to biased accuracy assessment (see Lovelace et al., 2021). This study sheds light on the accuracy bias of random resampling induced by SAC in a hedonic context. The results prove useful for increasing the robustness and generalizability of algorithmic approaches to hedonic regression problems, thereby containing valuable implications for appraisal practices. To the best of our knowledge, no research in the existing literature has thus far accounted for SAC in an algorithm-driven hedonic context by applying spatial cross-validation. We conclude that random resampling yields over-optimistic prediction accuracies whereas spatial resampling increases generalizability, and thus robustness to unseen data. We also find the bias to be lower for algorithms which apply column-subsampling to counteract overfitting. |
| Keywords: | Hedonic Models; Machine Learning; Spatial Autocorrelation; Spatial Cross Validation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_51&r= |
| By: | Manfred Klaus; Alexandra Weitkamp |
| Abstract: | Many different factors influence the market value of real estate. These include the general location as well as the areas of the land and the living space, the type of building and the year of construction, etc. In Germany, publicly derived standard land values, property interest rates or marked adjustment factor (in the cost approach) describe the structural differences in location. Investigations on the relationship to socio-economic indicators and facilities of social services of general interests (e.g. family doctors, primary school, supermarkets), especially regarding their accessibility, do not exist. But an indirect relationship does exist. The standard land values and other required data also reflects the supply situation close to the place of residence. This research gap will be closed by examining corresponding data for their value relevance. In Germany, a major problem is the availability and associated with this the investigability of relevant data. The Atlas of Services of General Interest of the Federal State of Lower Saxony (DVAN) will address this problem in the future. The DVAN is under development in a research project of the authors. For the first time, various map layers on infrastructure facilities in the areas of education (kindergartens, schools, libraries), health care (family doctors, ophthalmologists, psychotherapists, hospitals, etc.) and retail will be available in an internal administrative web application, which can be combined with population and accessibility data for the means of transport pedestrians, bicycles, pedelecs, cars and public transport. Further topics and different analysis methods for describing the supply situation will be integrated in the future. For the valuation, it is important that the neighbourhood of a residential real estate ensures at least basic services. The following applies: A high quality of life implies good accessibility to public social services. The better the supply situation, the higher the quality. Also, the demand on the location is higher. Therefore, a value relevance for the access to social services of general interest can be assumed. For the presented investigation, the processed data and other generated variables of the DVAN, as well as the purchase cases of the last few years from the purchase price collection, were analysed in regard of their market value relevance. After the theoretical consideration of possible value relevance, the modelling is carried out in factor analysis and then using structural equation models. We would like to present the interim results and discuss the research question: Does a parameter 'social service of general interest close to home' improve the understanding of the composition of the market value of residential real estate? In the future, the results are compared with the established hedonic models and validated through expert interviews. |
| Keywords: | Accessibility; social economic indicators; social services of general interests; Valuation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_40&r= |
| By: | Lionel Vedrine (CESAER - Centre d'Economie et de Sociologie Rurales Appliquées à l'Agriculture et aux Espaces Ruraux - AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Julie Le Gallo (CESAER - Centre d'Economie et de Sociologie Rurales Appliquées à l'Agriculture et aux Espaces Ruraux - AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | We extend the literature on Cohesion Policy effectiveness by considering how the cohesion policy affects both within regional disparities and economic growth. For that purpose, a panel database of 205 NUTS2 regions of the UE-25 for 2000-2014 is used. We estimate panel data regressions with fixed effects and a spatial autoregressive term in order to control for unobservable characteristics and spatial dependence. Our results emphasize a trade-off between within and between regional disparities for EU-25 regions over the 2000-2014 period. |
| Keywords: | Cohesion Policy,Regional Development,Within regional disparities,Spatial Panel Econometrics |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03327693&r= |
| By: | Herman Vande Putte; Tuuli Jylha; Hilde Remoy; Cynthia Hou |
| Abstract: | This research aims at developing a real estate management theory that overarches the different classes of real estate management like e.g. corporate real estate (CRE) management and housing management, who all operate within a specific narrative, apply a particular range of concepts and terminology, and refer in their own way to general theories like asset and portfolio management. These specificities create barriers for communication between the different classes of real estate management and hamper the exchange and development of knowledge in the field, what we consider undesirable. The challenge of developing a broad real estate management theory is to avoid that little more is done than to repeat general management, economic or sociological theories. The aimed broad real estate management theory should approximate the concreteness of the specific theories and cover their core, while still being relevant for practice, research and education. For this research, real estate management is considered the ongoing process of aligning the built environment and the needs of users, which happens at all scales of the built environment, for all types of users, and for all real estate aspects such as location, cost, function, time and quality. Based on this definition, the research will addresses three components: demand side, supply side and the delivery models that coordinate both sides. The research on the side of the real estate demander searches for similarities and differences between e.g. the way the demander is organised internally, the real estate procurement is executed, what is outsourced and why, what performance criteria are used, how financial markets are accessed. The research on the side of the supplier of the built environment may address topics like e.g. what is the relation of the supplier with the user, what drives production, what are context constraints, what is the status of the sustainability discourse. The search for similarities and differences in the delivery may address e.g. what models are in place, what types of institutions operate in this delivery, who intervenes in this alignment and why, what is the nature of the markets, what is the role of state intervention, what type of alignment is searched for, what performance criteria are used. The comparison of different classes of real estate management may reveal e.g.: that theories on CRE management subsequently position the CRE management department inside the user’s organisation boundary, whereas theories on housing management position this group most often outside the households’ boundary; that current practices in CRE and housing management both strive after a portfolio of conventional assets and keep away from the representative objects like monuments; that there is a trend that households want to be more involved and co-producing their house than before and thereto want to bypass the current institutional setting (sort of insourcing, self-production), whereas within organisations the trend has been for decades to less involve in the management of their accommodation and to rely on the possibilities offered by the CRE and related services market, although since a few years in-sourcing and self-provision seem to be revalued; that there is recent trend that private companies engage in the delivery of housing for their employees to deal with failing housing markets like they did in the beginning of the 20th century, and that households are re-initiating work at home, for which they need a different type of dwelling; both types of users seem to breach the institutionalised division of actors by real estate function installed for almost a century. This type of observations – and many more and of very different natures – trigger an explanation of causes and mechanisms, and together with the main theories used in the different classes of real estate management (Pestoff, 1993; Brandsen et al., 2005; Henderson & Venkatraman, 1993;…) they are the basis for building the aimed broad real estate management theory. In concreto the research method consists of theory design, academic literature study and interviews with academics. |
| Keywords: | Delivery models; Housing management; real estate management; Theory formation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_215&r= |
| By: | Takao Maruyama |
| Abstract: | While recent debates on educational development focus on the learning crisis in primary education, the crisis in lower secondary education level is equally profound. Around 58 percent of school-age children worldwide enrolled in lower secondary education are not reaching the minimum proficiency level in mathematics. One of the approaches to improve student learning is a structured pedagogy program that provides schools with teaching and learning materials and other related interventions. The impact of teaching and learning materials on student learning depends upon the support of teachers for students. This study investigates the impact of additional components in a structured pedagogy program that tried to strengthen support of teachers to improve student math learning at the lower secondary level in El Salvador through a randomized controlled trial. The study tracked the same students for two years. While the average one-year impact of the additional component is estimated at around 0.18 standard deviations of test scores, the impact did not persist when the difference of interventions between the treatment and control groups disappeared in the second year of this research. Furthermore, a causal mediation analysis is conducted to investigate the possible causal path of the additional interventions on student math learning. |
| Keywords: | Educational Development, Math learning, Lower secondary education, Latin America and Impact evaluation |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jic:wpaper:222&r= |
| By: | Erwin Heurkens; Tom Daamen; Wouter Jan Verheul; Fred Hobma |
| Abstract: | In current European practices, actors in real estate and urban transformation are highly dependent on one another. Contemporary inner-city transformation projects are particularly challenging in terms of collaboration and financing, as they need to address the need for housing as well as new demands in mobility, health, energy, climate adaptation and other sectors. Among other things, such cross-sectoral projects need to allocate funding from multiple public and private sources in a timely fashion, which is a challenge in its own right. Moreover, long-term urban transformation projects require large sums of up-front financing due to high land assembly, site preparation and real estate construction costs. Such financing is usually difficult to obtain. Project proposals face strict conditions from private lenders and investors, and limited availability of government funding, value capturing, and legal co-financing possibilities (Daamen et al., 2020). In many countries, these and other trends have spurred a quest for innovative financing instruments for real estate development (e.g. Squires et al., 2015). The Netherlands is a case in point. Here, innovative financing arrangements that combine the realization of public values and private return are believed to offer great potential for inner-city transformation projects. As part of a study funded by a Dutch government-industry coalition, we identified and assessed two of such innovative financing arrangements: Revolving Funds and Area Improvement Districts (Heurkens et al., 2020). The essence of the Revolving Fund is that public bodies – once private finance due to estimated risks in unavailable – pre-finance the realization of local public amenities and/or private real estate investments with sustainability objectives such as energy transition or shared mobility solutions. Such pre-financing has the precondition that the loan is repaid (with interest) to the fund, thus making it available for reinvestment—hence its revolving nature. The idea of an Area Improvement Districts is based on the financing mechanism behind Business Improvement Districts practiced in the US. These are aimed at obtaining a proportional financial contribution from property owners, investors and (potentially) developers for collective amenities or infrastructures in the area. These contributions are based on the expected increase in real estate value and the social impact of investments, which are pre-financed from a privately managed fund. Both innovative financing arrangements provide possible answers to, and might reinforce, increasing interdependencies between the public and private sector in urban planning and development (Heurkens et al., 2015). In addition, they aim to arrange and designate finance collectively in order to synthesize public and private values in the built environment. Potentially, they could prove to be beneficial for financing specific urban transformation projects with innovative sustainability solutions that have not yet proven to generate satisfactory returns. Nonetheless, both arrangements might also involve institutional changes – ranging from adapting government legislation, rethinking real estate financing structures, or changing actor behaviors and cultures – that prohibit a widespread adoption in practice. Moreover, one might ask whether such hybrid financing arrangements, and associated interdependencies such as shared risks, are desirable from a political and financial risk management point of view. Therefore, further research necessitates a closer examination of the features of, conditions for and effects of applications of innovative financing arrangements in urban transformation practices. |
| Keywords: | area improvement district; innovative financing; revolving fund; Urban Transformation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_56&r= |
| By: | Felix Gauger; Benjamin Wagner; Andreas Pfnür |
| Abstract: | Economic changes, increasing competitive pressure, and growing dynamics in organizations require flexible and efficient provision of space. These altered occupier requirements lead to changes within the office sector. In today's knowledge work, the purpose of office space is extending from a place of pure space provision and productivity to a social place that allows social interaction, creativity, and more space for informal meetings. To address these new requirements, corporate real estate no longer measures the provision of space in terms of pure costs, but increasingly includes factors such as employee satisfaction, quality and service, collaboration, and social interaction. Flexible Office Spaces, or so-called “Coworking Spaces,” are characterized by the provision of temporally and spatially flexible space with a high service orientation. This operator model has the potential to change the real estate value chain. The operator leases larger areas on a long-term basis, (sub)leases individual managed workplaces to the user and thus provides a risk and maturity transformation. With an operator as an intermediary, the way in which commercial space is provided is changing. This process within the real estate industry is driven by the occupiers. This research project investigates to what extent Flexible Office Space meets the (new) requirements of the occupiers for provision of space. We apply a model of requirements and value contribution of space provision on the provision of flexible office space. For an empirical analysis, 59 corporate real estate managers from large German companies were surveyed. Correlation and bivariate regression analyses were used to show which of these requirements are related to the use of Flexible Office Space. The results indicate that Flexible Office Space is an alternative form of space provision for large companies. We find that requirements for flexibility, innovation, collaboration, and creativity as well as employee well-being and satisfaction correspond with Flexible Office Space. However, they do not associate Flexible Office Space with an increase in work productivity, corporate identity, corporate social responsibility, or a strengthening of employer branding. The results enable CRE managers to assess which requirements for space provision are addressed by Flexible Office Space. This helps in deciding whether it is appropriate to use Flexible Office Space within the real estate strategy. |
| Keywords: | Coworking; CREM; flexible office space; space provision |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_47&r= |
| By: | Marko Kryvobokov; Sébastien Pradella |
| Abstract: | The energy performance of rented dwellings is a crucial aspect of energy policy in the Walloon region in Belgium, where one quarter of households are tenants on the private market. The paper deals with the imperfect information problem that concerns the energy performance certificates (EPCs) and its impact on rental market. Four aspects of the problem reported in the literature are discussed, namely: 1) different energy evaluations of the same dwelling; 2) performance gap between theoretically estimated and real energy consumption; 3) insufficient coverage of the rental market by EPCs; 4) often weak appreciation of official EPCs on the rental market. The originality of the paper is that it compares the official EPC labels with the labels reported by tenants in a recent survey (N=2.892). While an existing EPC is often unknown for tenants, their awareness depends on the households’ socio-economic characteristics. Four groups of tenants are distinguished: those with correct answers, “dreamers” overestimating their energy performance, “complainers” underestimating their energy performance, and “indifferent” tenants who don’t know the existing label. The differences between groups are analyzed with descriptive statistics and a discrete choice model. According to the hedonic regression, the impact of an official EPC on housing rents varies for households with different perceptions of energy performance. In particular, the “dreamers” more severely penalize the worst energy classes, while the “indifferent” tenants a bit undervalue good EPCs and a bit overvalue bad EPCs. The indifference concerning the EPC slows down a progressive introduction of the impact of the energy performance on a residential rental market. In a policy context, the availability of a clear information on EPC for all tenants is an important condition of the functioning of the residential rental market in a manner that stimulates the renovation of old housing stock and the maintenance of high energy standards. |
| Keywords: | Energy Performance Certificate; Energy policy; Hedonic Model; residential rental market |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_144&r= |
| By: | Martin, Elliot; Cohen, Adam; Yassine, Ziad; Brown, Les; Shaheen, Susan |
| Abstract: | The Mobility on Demand (MOD) Sandbox Demonstration Program provides a venue through which integrated MOD concepts and solutions, supported through local partnerships, are demonstrated in real-world settings. For each of the 11 MOD Sandbox Demonstration projects, a MOD Sandbox Independent Evaluation was conducted that includes an analysis of project impacts from performance measures provided by the project partners and an assessment of the business models used. This document presents the Evaluation Report for the BART Integrated Carpool to Transit Access Program project. The project tested a number of hypotheses that explored the project impacts on carpooling, costs, enforcement, ridership, parking, and vehicle miles of travel (VMT). The evaluation generally found that the project increased overall carpooling to BART, commensurately increased the utilization of parking spaces by carpooling vehicles, and increased the number of people per vehicle parking at BART stations. The evaluation determined that the overall cost of enforcement per carpool space declined, primarily because spaces used for carpools increased without significantly increased enforcement burden. The evaluation did not have data available to determine whether illegal use of carpool spaces had changed significantly as a result of the project. On the related matter of enforcement, the evaluation did not have data to quantify changes in fraudulent use of carpool spaces and, instead, relied on discussions with enforcement staff, which suggested that fraudulent use had dropped as a result of the project. The evaluation did find that the project produced a wider distribution of arrival times to carpool spaces, which was an objective of BART, to permit greater flexibility of travel times in the morning for carpooling riders. The evaluation found that the project likely increased BART ridership, although not by margins large enough to be statistically noticeable within normal fluctuations of station ridership. Data were not available to determine whether this increase in ridership raised revenue that exceeded the costs of the project. However, users reported reduced personal transportation costs a result of the project. The project found that overall VMT very likely declined as result of the project due to the reduced driving alone to stations. Finally, expert interviews with project personnel produced lessons learned on implementation and policy that may inform similar projects in the future. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Mobility on Demand, MOD, sandbox, shared mobility, mobility as a service, independent evaluation, transit, carpooling |
| Date: | 2020–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt20k5m10d&r= |
| By: | Harun Tanrivermis; Ilhan Yildirim; Erol Demír |
| Abstract: | Financial leasing, which is widely used in medium-term financing of investments in many countries, provides great advantages in meeting the increasing demands of the working capital of organizations. Financial leasing, which is a unique transaction that consists of the combination of three different transactions such as medium-term investment loan, lease, instalment sales, and which have a different quality, is a financing method that is very close to medium-term loan adopted in Turkey. Financial leasing, whose legal infrastructure was first established and backed by the Financial Leasing Law No. 3226 of 1985, was put into its application within the scope of the financial leasing, factoring, and financing companies under Law No. 6361 in 2012. To meet the housing demands, within the scope of Law No. 5582 on the Housing Finance System, consumers are provided with the opportunity to provide long-term funds through financial leasing. In addition, apart from being a means of financing in real estate projects by participation banks and financial leasing companies, it is also used as a sales method in housing finance as a real estate acquisition method. The real estate sector in Turkey greatly contributes to the economy as a hub of employment and stimulates the growth of several sectors, so the consideration of financing of real estate is essential. In the period of 2010-2020 in Turkey, the share of financial leasing transactions in total building investments were decreased by 1% at the end of 2020. The share of financial leasing transaction volume in total fixed investments was around 2% at the end of 2020. In the period examined, the share of construction, real estate brokerage, leasing and operating activities and consumer housing finance in the gross transaction volume of financial leasing was around 20-30% in the period before 2018 but fell below 20% in 2019 and 2020. In the field of financial leasing, especially the sell and lease method, it attracts attention as an Islamic financing model in the financing of commercial real estate investments and housing acquisition. In this study, analysis of the applications of the financial leasing in the real estate sector in Turkey was analysed in aspects of legal, economic, and technical, and the identification of problems, the solution was put forward. Through various data published by financial leasing companies and participation banks and application examples, the conditions of success in the real estate sector were examined by taking into account the development process according to the periods, although it provides various advantages, the main reasons for the lack of widespread and weak development of financial leasing transactions in Turkey were determined. Literature review and regulatory analysis were conducted in the study and the current implementation of the financial leasing method in the real estate sector and its impact on the development of the real estate sector were examined. Based upon the results of the interviews and surveys conducted with the managers and experts of financial leasing companies and the beneficiaries of this vehicle, economic analysis of the use of financial leasing in real estate development and real estate investments, basic application problems and opportunities for the development of financing of financial leasing and real estate investments were evaluated. It is noteworthy that financial leasing companies and participation banks have an important role in the current practice and the employment of real estate development and real estate investments and financing experts in both enterprises is mandatory to increase the success of the implementation of the model. |
| Keywords: | commercial real estate; Financial leasing; residential investment; sell and leaseback |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_172&r= |
| By: | Marissa Plouin; Willem Adema; Pauline Fron; Paul-Marie Roth |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses housing challenges facing people with disabilities in OECD and EU countries, and policy supports to make housing more affordable, accessible and adapted to their needs. It focuses on the adult population with disabilities living outside institutions, drawing on data from the European Union Survey of Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC), household surveys, national population census and disability surveys, and country responses to the 2021 OECD Questionnaire on Affordable and Social Housing. The paper summarises housing outcomes; discusses policy supports to ensure that people with disabilities can be safely, affordably and independently housed; and outlines actions for policy makers. |
| Keywords: | Accessibility, Disability, Housing Affordability, Public investment |
| JEL: | I38 H53 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2021–09–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:261-en&r= |
| By: | Francisca M. Antman; Kalena Cortes |
| Abstract: | We present the first quantitative analysis of the impact of ending de jure segregation of Mexican-American school children in the United States by examining the effects of the 1947 Mendez v. Westminster court decision on long-run educational attainment for Hispanics and non-Hispanic whites in California. Our identification strategy relies on comparing individuals across California counties that vary in their likelihood of segregating and across birth cohorts that vary in their exposure to the Mendez court ruling based on school start age. Results point to a significant increase in educational attainment for Hispanics who were fully exposed to school desegregation. |
| JEL: | I24 I26 J15 J18 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29200&r= |
| By: | Forth, John; Theodoropoulos, Nikolaos; Bryson, Alex |
| Abstract: | Using matched employer-employee data for Britain, we examine ethnic wage differentials among full-time employees. We find substantial ethnic segregation across workplaces: around three-fifths of workplaces in Britain employ no ethnic minority workers. However, this workplace segregation does not contribute to the aggregate wage gap between ethnic minorities and white employees. Instead, most of the ethnic wage gap exists between observationally equivalent co-workers. Lower pay satisfaction and higher levels of skill mismatch among ethnic minority workers are consistent with discrimination in wage-setting on the part of employers. The use of job evaluation schemes within the workplace is shown to be associated with a smaller ethnic wage gap. |
| Keywords: | ethnic wage gap,workplace segregation,skill mismatch,pay satisfaction,job evaluation |
| JEL: | J16 J31 M52 M54 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:920&r= |
| By: | Jacob Hartog; Lily Fesler; Brittany Tabora |
| Abstract: | Since 2014 the New Jersey Department of Education has offered three high school equivalency (HSE) exams for nongraduates seeking credentials: the GED, the High School Equivalency Test (HiSET), and the Test Assessing Secondary Completion (TASC). |
| Keywords: | access to education, achievement tests, adult education, credentials, data analysis, equivalency tests, high school equivalency programs, high stakes tests, mathematics tests, reading tests, science tests, standardized tests, statistical analysis, writing tests |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:61d8b65d7f894509a489a6f939194085&r= |
| By: | Benedict von Ahlefeldt-Dehn; Marcelo Cajias; Wolfgang Schäfers |
| Abstract: | The commercial real estate market is opaque and build upon complex relationships of countless property market and macroeconomic factors. Yet, office markets are due to its sheer volume and importance for numerous market players such as investors, developers, mortgage underwriters and valuation firms broadly researched. Especially, the prediction of property market indicators found strong interest among researchers and practitioners in the field of commercial real estate. Thus, the literature proposes three main frameworks for predicting office rents, among other. The estimation via multiple equation models such as error correction mechanism models (e.g. Hendershott et al., 2002; Ke and White, 2009; McCartnery, 2012) or interlinked demand and supply models (e.g. Rosen, 1984; Hendershott et al., 1999; Kim, 2012), reduced form single equation models (e.g. Matysiak and Tsolacos, 2003; Voigtländer, 2010; Kiehelä and Falkenbach, 2014) or autoregressive models (e.g. McGough and Tsolacos, 1995; Brooks and Tsolacos, 2000; Stevenson and McGarth, 2003). However, the limitations of the applied methods lay within the econometric methods itself. “Traditional” statistical modeling as an approximation of causality will only understand trends and relationships in the underlying market to the degree the employed econometric methods themselves can mirror. In contrast, more recent methodological attempts such as machine learning can be seen as a process of selecting the relevant features leading to a trade-off between precision and stability of a predictive model (Conway, 2018). This however, creates opportunities to expand and enhance existing efforts – in a way that complex and non-linear relationships within the data are captured. Many studies (e.g Dabrowski and Adamczyk, 2010; Rafatirad, 2017, Cajias and Ertl, 2018; Mayer et al., 2019) apply advanced machine learning methods to residential markets and demonstrate that “traditional” linear hedonic models can be outperformed. While linear models are found to produce less volatile predictions advanced machine learning methods yield more accurate results. Promising results can also be shown in commercial real estate markets. In particular, the aim of research is the performance assessment of the forecasting of office rents in European markets with advanced machine learning methods. A dataset of European markets with office prime rents and market as well as macroeconomic indicators is analysed and advanced machine learning models are estimated. A “traditional” linear regression model (ordinary least squares) functions as a benchmark for the evaluation of the employed methods: random forest and extreme gradient boosting. In particular, the prediction power and forecasting ability is assessed in- and out-of-sample, respectively. The tree-based advanced machine learning methods yield promising estimations in the observed markets. It becomes clear that in commercial real estate markets complex and non-linear relationships are present and can effectively be estimated by non-parametric econometric models. By the application of these methods the estimation error (out-of-sample) can be reduced by up to 60 percent. To the best of the authors knowledge such applications of machine learning methods in commercial real estate markets has not been considered in prior research. However, in the area of textual analysis results show that commercial real estate markets can be forecasted on the basis of market sentiment (e.g. Beracha et al., 2019). The capability of improving the forecasting power with advanced machine learning methods creates value and transparency for numerous market players and authorities. |
| Keywords: | commercial real estate; Forecast; Machine Learning; Office Rent |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_49&r= |
| By: | Harun Tanrivermis; Md Moynul Ahsan; Sinan Güne; Aylin Blengabs; Orhan Matarac |
| Abstract: | Integrated strategic urban planning in many cities and countries, as well as analysis of current situation in local development, urban transformation and urban conservation together with the participation of all stakeholders in various activities, poses an impact on the success of a project. It is possible to create a useful model with the participation of local people and other stakeholders in the use of urban space, conservation of areas and monuments of natural and historical value and in this way, the success of sustainable urban revitalization at the local level can be improved. In order to develop sustainable approaches to the conservation and revitalization of archaeological, historical and urban areas, it is necessary to increase compliance with local community values, contemporary needs, public participation and stakeholder satisfaction levels. Because, in the analysis of urban development, conservation and real estate projects through a strategic planning approach with the participation of local people and the private sector is considered among the main conditions for ensuring the sustainability of projects. In recent years, importance and priority have been given to the analysis of open and green areas, parks, conservation areas and urban transformation implementation projects in cities, and integrating strategic planning model has adding value in the process. In the city centre of Ankara province, which is the capital of Turkey, there are several large areas among which the most important is Ataturk Cultural Center (AKM) area, which is an historical centre of the city in the Zubeyde Hanm neighborhood of Altindag District. In this study, physical, economic, legal, social and environmental indicators of Atatürk Cultural Center area were determined. In addition to ensuring the preservation and development of historic urban spaces, opportunities for the development of an adequate and effective strategic model and practice-based management tools were evaluated. In the analysis of AKM case study, the relationship between the historical development and the environment of the area was revealed by using the current situation analysis and region data. Based on historical and cultural characteristics and stakeholder views of the area, current use of status and problem analysis of region called the green belt and historical city centre of Ankara Province was conducted. With the data obtained, the difference/gap analysis related to the region was performed and the possible risks were examined in various aspects. In addition to the survey work, project alternatives were determined by taking into account the property and zoning data related to the region, the historical, cultural and symbolic characteristics of the region, and the most appropriate alternative was selected using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). According to the most appropriate alternative, market and competitiveness conditions were examined, and strategic goals were determined at the real estate level by taking into account the compatibility of the project alternative with the relevant existing corporate-macro strategic plans. According to the income-generating approaches included in the selected project, the path of cost and income estimation was taken and the outline of the strategic action plan was presented by designing the process for the strategic spatial plan. According to the research results, it has emphasized that in real estate development project model with the strategic planning approach, competitive real estate markets and the functioning logic of the current region for sustainable (economic, environmental and social) impacts, the potentials and benefits should be taken into account. According to the results of the field study, it has revealed that the AKM area should be a cultural centre by function; and if integrated with its surroundings, especially the historical city centre it will have a modern appearance that preserves its historical and cultural nature. In addition, according to the results of the competitor analysis and gap analysis, it was determined that the project alternative envisaged to be carried out in the region has a competitive advantage and is compatible with the strategic plans already in practice. The fact that the strategic action plan is compatible with the results of fieldwork shows that the strategic planning approach is consistent in itself. Finally, monitoring and evaluation of the strategic plan with the perspective of 10P model for providing corporate level action. In addition, considering that corporate real estate needs to be increasingly integrated into business strategy, it should be emphasized that corporate real estate strategy and corporate strategy should be harmonized in specialized areas such as AKM. |
| Keywords: | Historic city centre; Strategic alignment and project development; Strategic Planning; sustainability |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_179&r= |
| By: | Welter, Caroline; Cypriano, Luiz; Centurião, Daniel |
| Abstract: | This study sought to identify and analyze the evolution of Local Productive Arrangements (LPAs) in the sectors of extractive and manufacturing industry in the state of Paran´a, from 2006 to 2016. In the methodology, the normalized Concentration Index (nCI) and the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA), which consisted of the application of two statistical tests, the Global Moran’s I and the Local Moran’s I. With this methodological procedure it was possible to identify 57 industrial LPAs in the state of Paran´a in 23 economic sectors, with its greatest incidence in the Metropolitan Region of Curitiba and North Central. We conclude that there is a consolidation process with positive evolution of LPAs in the analyzed period, where the regions of Londrina and Curitiba and its surroundings stand out, as well as the activities of food and beverage production; textiles and clothing; wood and furniture; and the production of machinery, equipment, rubber, and plastics. |
| Keywords: | Productive Agglomerations, Exploratory Analysis of Spatial Data, Productive Specialization. |
| JEL: | R12 |
| Date: | 2021–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109222&r= |
| By: | Karl-Friedrich Keunecke; Hunter Kuhlwein; Cay Oertel |
| Abstract: | Autoregressive heteroscedastic effects in financial time series have been subject to a broad field of applied econometrics. Both academic research as well as the industry apply GARCH processes to real estate data with previous investigation mostly focused on securitized real estate positions. So far, the common approach in the literature has been to assume normal distribution of the innovation term for the GARCH modelling of direct real estate markets (Miles, 2008). The specified assumption of normality however falls short of the data characteristics exhibited by direct real estate markets, such as returns of real estate prices explicitly not normally distributed and better characterized by a more leptokurtic, skewed distribution (Schindler, 2009). Ghahramani and Thavaneswaran (2007) point out that typically the innovation distribution is selected without further justification. Consequently, the omission of a priori assumptions about the innovation term distributions being fit to direct real estate leading to misspecification and -parameterization of GARCH models is the research aim of this study. The employed analysis will utilize monthly transaction-based data for ten US property market subsets, whilst observing a window of time to encompass different market conditions and volatility regimes (Perlin et al., 2021). Determining how ARCH effects might differ across different US real estate submarkets as well as major and non-major markets builds on and extends previous research focused on geographical disaggregation (see Crawford and Fratantoni, 2003; Dolde and Tirtioglu, 1997; Miles, 2008; Schindler, 2009). Subsequently fitting and estimating each data subset with a conditionally normally distributed GARCH model will be juxtaposed by employing a variety of innovation distributions to the data. It follows the central hypothesis of this paper, that the goodness of fit for GARCH models can be improved by allowing for the conditional distribution to be modeled as a flexible a priori assumption. Investigating the differing goodness of fit for the models and employing the most appropriate models to re-estimate the GARCH parameters will allow an analysis of the differences in volatility clustering effects to the model employing normally distributed innovations. The aim is to show empirically, that non-normal innovation term distribution leads to a potentially better goodness of fit of the GARCH model. The utilization of a priori assumptions of GARCH model specification is of high importance not only for portfolio management of investors, but also risk management for economic institutions such as central banks and mortgage banks (Schindler, 2009). To the best of the authors’ knowledge, there is no study which scientifically examines the innovation term distribution of GARCH models of direct real estate investments. This paper aims to provide a better understanding of the influence a priori assumptions of the innovation term can take to increase the validity of volatility models for direct real estate investments. |
| Keywords: | Capital Values; GARCH; Innovation term distribution; Volatility modeling |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_75&r= |
| By: | Olayiwola Oladiran; Anupam Nanda |
| Abstract: | In the last decade, IT and digital systems have silently become pervasive in traditional real estate markets, creating a contemporary branch of real estate typically referred to as “PropTech” (property technology). Despite the advancement of property technology and innovations over the last few decades, there has been a disproportionate growth in related scholarly work, particularly in the area of PropTech education. Furthermore, there is no evidence-based approach to developing a Property Technology and innovation educational framework for higher institutions. This research, therefore, develops a practical and pedagogical framework to enhance and sustain the integration and delivery of technology and innovation in real estate higher education. Using a stakeholder and analytical approach, we conduct several interviews and focus group sessions with senior managers and CEOs of leading real estate and PropTech firms in the UK. In addition to these, we conduct further interviews with heads of real estate departments, senior real estate educators and professional bodies (RICS and UK PropTech Association). We thereafter design a practical and pedagogical framework for PropTech and real estate innovation in real estate higher education (referred to as PEIF). The PEIF proposes a blended approach of integration, involving the development of a module to introduce property technology and innovation in the real estate higher education curriculum, while simultaneously incorporating technology and innovation in the already existing real estate modules. This framework, to the best of our knowledge, is the first PropTech education integration framework that has been developed using extensive empirical evidence; it is thus valuable to real estate educators and higher education institutions. |
| Keywords: | Higher Education; proptech; real estate innovation; Technology |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_218&r= |
| By: | Martin, Elliot; Nichols, Aqshems; Cohen, Adam; Shaheen, Susan |
| Abstract: | This report documents the results of an independent evaluation of the Vermont Agency of Transportation’s (VTrans) OpenTripPlanner (OTP), called Go! Vermont, part of the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) Mobility on Demand (MOD) Sandbox Demonstration program. The project intended to serve as an alternative to other trip planners by including flexible transit options such as route deviation, dial-a-ride, and other demand-responsive alternatives and to analyze web traffic data to determine the level of user activity attracted by Go! Vermont since its launch. The evaluation compared the trip itineraries of Google Maps and the OTP and explored the inclusion of flexible transit options. Eight hypotheses were evaluated, and expert (stakeholder/project partner) interviews highlighted VTrans partnerships with employment services and vocational rehabilitation to leverage the trip planner for improving access to jobs, training, and healthcare for carless and carlite house-holds. Interviewees noted how the trip planner improved how telephone dispatchers and case workers provided transportation information. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Mobility on Demand, MOD, sandbox, shared mobility, independent evaluation, transit trip planner, Open Trip Planner, VTrans, demand-responsive transit |
| Date: | 2021–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt34w88314&r= |
| By: | Farley Ishaak; Ron van Schie; Jan De Haan |
| Abstract: | In official real estate price statistics it is common to consider only actual asset deals as real estate transactions. These are, for instance, transfers of real estate ownership as recorded by Land Registry Offices or real estate sales documented in purchase agreements by real estate agents. In these cases the transfer refers to the reallocation of legal ownership of a real estate object. In the real estate trading market however, there is another way to transfer property. Real estate can be accommodated into a separate company, referred to as a Single Purpose Entity (SPE), that is specifically established to legally own the real estate. If using an SPE and if company A intends to transfer real estate to company B it may transfer shares of the SPE instead. In this scenario there is no shift of legal ownership of the property, but merely a shift of economic ownership as the SPE gets a new shareholder. These sales are not registered as real estate transactions and are therefore omitted from ‘traditional’ commercial property price indicators (CPPIs). Statistics based on either share or asset deals could therefore be distorted if the aim is to reflect market developments. In this research the size of real estate share deals in the Netherlands is studied to evaluate to what extent share deals should be included in CPPIs. Various official key registers in the Netherlands were linked to estimate sales numbers, total sales values and price developments of share deals. The results were compared to similar figures of asset deals. The outcomes will show the contribution of share deals to the volume and value of real estate transactions, and indicate possible price differences between share and asset deals. |
| Keywords: | asset deal; Commercial Property Price Indicator (CPPI); share deal; Single Purpose Entity (SPE) |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_148&r= |
| By: | Nan Maxwell; Erin Dillon |
| Abstract: | This brief summarizes the Youth CareerConnect (YCC) program and the impact it had on students while they were still in high school. |
| Keywords: | Youth CareerConnect, college and career pathway, high school, career and technical education |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:d5b35fe93b494e3c928324103b629ad9&r= |
| By: | Sumit Agarwal; Yi Fan; Wenlan Qian; Tien Foo Sing |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how a public housing policy with pro-marriage design impacts the rise and fall of marriage and explores a consumption channel interacted with parents’ housing status. In 2001, Singapore launched a Build-to-Order (BTO) scheme to build and allocate new public housing, with a pre-requisite of forming family nucleus. Using administrative data and government records from 1996 to 2019, we first show stylized facts on the rising number of marriage and divorce, which coincide with the launching and expanding of the BTO scheme. Couples living in the BTO flats are significantly younger and more likely to have short marriages compared to those under non-BTO schemes. Using supervised machine learning, we find that BTO and private consumption have the strongest impacts on marriage decisions. To explore possible channels, using high-quality consumption data between 2010 and 2012 and a propensity score matching method, we find that married BTO residents under 35 years old consume 7% less monthly—especially on necessity goods—compared to singles in non-BTO public housing. Evidence on mortgage reveals a possible trade-off between personal expenditure and housing mortgage. The consumption drop is more severe for married BTO residents born to parents in public housing. However, no evidence is shown among singles above 35 living in BTO flats, who are no longer bound by the purchase pre-requisite of forming family nucleus. It is likely that the BTO scheme spurs early marriage; though the consumption friction due to budget constraint induces dissolution of marriage in short span, especially for those born in humble families. Our paper sheds light on the spill-over effects of public policy between housing and marriage market. |
| Keywords: | Consumption; intergenerational impact; marriage friction; Public Housing |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_222&r= |
| By: | Simon Thaler; David Koch; Miroslav Despotovic |
| Abstract: | Real estate images contain a lot of valuable information and are broadly used for marketing purposes in property sales. However, until now, photos of the exterior of a house have not been processed systematically to use the information contained in hedonic pricing models. In this paper we examine to what extent the present information in images can be utilised to derive the influence of the building condition on the value of a house. Thereby, we analyse (i) if we can extract the condition of the building directly from the picture and shows the corresponding expected influence and (ii) to which extend we can improve a hedonic pricing model with the additional information. We classified 949 single-family houses into four classes according to a uniform condition variable. A regression analysis shows that the created variable together with the year of construction are the key influencing variables. This is in accordance with the theory and the valuation using the cost approach where these variables are also the decisive variables. It can be shown that if the condition variable is added to a baseline model consisting of the square meter of the plot and the building, as well as the price of the land per square meter the new model improves (R-squared: from 0.649 to 0.741, n = 949). This is result is comparable to a model incorporating all variables considered in our examination excluding the condition variable (R-squared: 0.741, n = 360) and yields a better prediction than the baseline model including construction year (R-squared: 0.729, n = 686). |
| Keywords: | Hedonic Property Pricing; Real Estate Valuation; Visual Assessment |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_45&r= |
| By: | Max Gross; Menbere Shiferaw; Jonah Deutsch; Brian Gill |
| Abstract: | This study estimated the promotion power of public high schools in the District of Columbia. |
| Keywords: | school effectiveness, growth models, accountability, graduation rate, college attendance |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:1c010e51ed7e478aa1f3f8304ab976bf&r= |
| By: | Akhundjanov, Sherzod B.; Jakus, Paul M. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312804&r= |
| By: | Annette Kaempf-Dern |
| Abstract: | In Germany only 45,5% of all residential units were inhabited by their owners in 2014 while more than 80% of households would prefer to live in their own home. One of the stated reasons for the latter is that property is perceived as a good investment opportunity, especially with regard to pensions and old-age provision. While it can strongly be doubted – especially in today’s market conditions in Germany – that residential investments of non-professional individuals will ever reach the risk-adjusted profitability of diversified investment funds, the decision to invest in real estate has strong positive effects on the discipline regarding payments for private pension provision. Another reason speaking for home ownership is the perceived freedom, while the lack of flexibility in relation to changing life circumstances, including mobility requirements for work, speak against it. Last, but not least, the majority of Germans has only below-average net assets and thus simply lacks the equity for a solid real estate acquisition. The question arises whether there are alternative models that keep the advantages of residential ownership for non-professional individuals while minimizing the disadvantages of the ‘traditional’ model? To answer this question, the ‘traditional’ model of residential acquisition and operation over the life cycle is depicted, as are upcoming alternatives, including a new ownership concept that creatively combines established legal, financial and operational constructs with new considerations. Based on empirical research and financial models for typical family constellations, the advantages and disadvantages of traditional and new residential ownership models are compared and discussed. The predominantly conceptual paper indicates that the traditional model of residential ownership for non-professional individuals is not well suited for the current and expectable conditions, including individual flexibility and mobility requirements of people living in multi-storey housing in cities. New models are needed that require some major changes, maybe even legal adaptations, but offer very promising results, not only for the affected individuals but also for the society. |
| Keywords: | home ownership in Germany; housing profitability; private pensions; tenement syndicate |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_106&r= |
| By: | Braesemann, Fabian; Stephany, Fabian; Teutloff, Ole; Kässi, Otto; Graham, Mark; Lehdonvirta, Vili |
| Abstract: | The Covid-19 pandemic has led to the rise of remote work with consequences for the global division of work. Remote work could connect labour markets, but it could also increase spatial polarisation. However, our understanding of the geographies of remote work is limited. Specifically, does remote work bring jobs to rural areas or is it concentrating in large cities, and how do skill requirements affect competition for jobs and wages? We use data from a fully remote labour market - an online labour platform - to show that remote work is polarised along three dimensions. First, countries are globally divided: North American, European, and South Asian remote workers attract most jobs, while many Global South countries participate only marginally. Secondly, remote jobs are pulled to urban regions; rural areas fall behind. Thirdly, remote work is polarised along the skill axis: workers with in-demand skills attract profitable jobs, while others face intense competition and obtain low wages. The findings suggest that remote work is shaped by agglomerative forces, which are deepening the gap between urban and rural areas. To make remote work an effective tool for rural development, it needs to be embedded in local skill-building and labour market programmes. |
| Keywords: | Remote work,Online labour,Platform economy,Geography,Polarisation |
| JEL: | F6 F16 J24 J31 L14 O15 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:238189&r= |
| By: | Cristian Luise (Dept. of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venice); Peter J. Buckley (Centre for International Business, Leeds University Business School); Hinrich Voss (Department of International Business, HEC Montreal); Emmanuella Plakoyiannaki (Faculty of Business, Economics and Statistics, University of Vienna); Elisa Barbieri (Dept. of Economics, Università Ca' Foscari Venice) |
| Abstract: | Infrastructural assets are vital for a country’s economic and social development. Governments typically provide the regulation and administration of these assets, while multinational enterprises (MNEs) develop, construct, finance, and operate them. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) promises infrastructure projects that deliver economic and social benefit for both the host country and the MNE. We argue that BRI objectives and project scope are kept in check in the host country through an existing nexus of property rights. Chinese investors need to understand the bargaining position and property rights actors across multiple levels, across space, and be mindful of changes over time when negotiating for an infrastructure investment. We interrogate four case studies of Chinese investment negotiations in Italian ports to explore the conceptual framework and to examine how the negotiation process evolved following BRI. |
| Keywords: | Belt and Road Initiative, infrastructure, FDI policy, emerging market multinationals, contract theory, Italy, ports, case study. |
| JEL: | F23 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vnm:wpdman:184&r= |
| By: | Acuff, Christopher |
| Abstract: | Research on the impacts of city-county consolidation often focus on issues relating to efficiency, effectiveness, and economic development; yet, relatively few studies have addressed the issue of racial and ethnic minority representation. While existing research is limited, findings indicate that consolidating city and county governments dilutes minority voting strength and has a disparate impact on minority representation. However, it is not clear if this is a nationwide trend, particularly in preclearance states previously covered by the Voting Rights Act. Thus, the question becomes, does consolidation negatively affect minority representation, and to what extent? This study employs a quasi-experimental interrupted time-series analysis in order to ascertain the overall impact of consolidation on the descriptive representation of African Americans since 1965. Results indicate that while representation has increased in recent decades, there are discernible declines in following consolidation, and noticeable representational disparities in counties previously covered by the Voting Rights Act. |
| Date: | 2021–08–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:bupfs&r= |
| By: | Katafuchi, Yuya |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes how the behavioral changes associated with novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have affected residential land prices. Under previous pandemics (e.g., Spanish flu and SARS), avoidance of real estate transactions accompanied by going-out behavior and contraction of the real economy have caused a decrease in residential land prices. On the other hand, under the COVID-19 pandemic, it has been reported that residential land prices were stable or increasing due to behavioral changes such as the promotion of work-from-home (WFH). In order to confirm this phenomenon, this study first constructs a yearly panel dataset of Japan with the average published land price at the prefectural level as the dependent variable and treatment variables based on policy interventions for COVID-19, or WFH implementation. Second, this study uses the dataset to examine the relationship between land prices and changes in these conditions before and after the pandemic using the difference-in-difference method. The results of the above empirical analysis suggest that residential land prices were higher in prefectures where policy interventions related to COVID-19 were more robust than in other prefectures and where WFH was promoted more. This result supports the upward trend in residential land prices during the COVID-19 pandemic in the prefectures where policy interventions on COVID-19, including requests for WFH, are more implemented and where WFH is more prevalent. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Land price, Work-from-home, Telework |
| JEL: | I12 I15 I18 R21 R30 |
| Date: | 2021–08–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109310&r= |
| By: | Acharya, Tri Dev PhD; Jenn, Alan T. PhD; Miller, Marshall R. PhD; Fulton, Lewis M. PhD |
| Abstract: | A spatial optimization model was developed for deploying, over the next two decades, hydrogen refueling stations for heavy-duty zero-emission hydrogen vehicles. The model assigns trips to vehicles by applying a routing algorithm to travel demand data derived from another model—the California Statewide Travel Demand Model (developed by the California Department of Transportation). Across a range of adoption levels of hydrogen fuel-cell truck technology, from 2020 through 2030, the results suggest that heterogeneity of travel demand may necessitate an extensive distribution of refueling stations, which may lead to low utilization of stations in the short term. To efficiently employ the capacity of stations, a certain volume of vehicle adoption must be met, and/or truck routes must be planned and committed to specific roadways. Once the number of stations reaches a threshold to meet the principal demand in affected transportation area zones, a small set of smaller “top-off” stations can be built to meet marginal excess demand. The best location of a hydrogen refueling station within a transportation area zone also depends on the criteria such as land cover, slope, and distance from gas stations, truck hubs, and the truck network. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Heavy duty trucks, fuel cell vehicles, hydrogen fuels, service stations, travel demand, spatial analysis, routing, optimization |
| Date: | 2021–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1mf9r7g1&r= |
| By: | Adam, Cohen; Susan, Shaheen |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt3mg6z1wf&r= |
| By: | James Bishop (Reserve Bank of Australia); Emma Greenland (Reserve Bank of Australia) |
| Abstract: | The way in which wages respond to very low rates of unemployment remains a key source of uncertainty in Australia, partly due to the lack of historical evidence to draw upon. To help fill this gap, we study data on unemployment rates and wages growth across local labour markets over the past 20 years. The considerable variation in economic conditions across local labour markets allows us to infer the strength of the relationship between unemployment and wages growth (i.e. the wage Phillips curve) at very low unemployment rates that are rarely seen at the national level. We find strong evidence that the wage Phillips curve is indeed a curve, rather than a straight line. When the unemployment rate exceeds 7½ per cent, the Phillips curve is flat and wages growth is unresponsive to changes in unemployment. Wages growth then becomes increasingly responsive to changes in the unemployment rate as the unemployment rate falls to lower and lower levels, most notably below 4 per cent. These findings have implications for monetary policy, particularly at the current juncture given the Reserve Bank of Australia's central forecast for the unemployment rate to fall to multi-decade lows in the next few years. |
| Keywords: | Phillips curve; unemployment; inflation; wages growth |
| JEL: | E24 E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2021-09&r= |
| By: | Etienne Capron (MSH Ange-Guépin - Maison des Sciences de l'Homme Ange-Guépin - UN - Université de Nantes - UM - Le Mans Université - UA - Université d'Angers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, GRANEM - Groupe de Recherche Angevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - Institut National de l'Horticulture et du Paysage); Dominique Sagot-Duvauroux; Raphaël Suire |
| Abstract: | This article aims to study the role of brokers, places, and events in the structuring of a community of innovation whose practice is at the intersection of art and technology-projection mapping. Using an exploratory case study, we observe the relationships between the different actors who form a community, sharing a common interest in a techno-creative practice-but whose collective innovation dynamic is only in its beginnings and remains unstable. We document the critical role of places and events as intermediary platforms for these actors. This reveals preferential circulations-patterns of moves among a set of focal locations in the city for a community-and the crucial role of these locations in communities' emergence. |
| Keywords: | techno-creative innovation,community,network analysis,places,events,brokers |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03323847&r= |
| By: | Gordon Stobart (University College London) |
| Abstract: | Scotland’s Curriculum for Excellence (CfE) is a pioneering example of curriculum reform, but the qualifications for upper-secondary school students have seen far less reform. Exam cancellations in 2020-21, and the debates generated provide an opportunity to radically reconsider the assessment system. This paper compares the Scottish system to four other British legacy systems and five other legacy traditions, to offer insight for how Scotland could improve the alignment between CfE and upper-secondary assessments. Theoretical considerations further guide the analysis on what constitutes a dependable and trustworthy assessment system, to refine the reflection around options for the Scottish system. Three major themes emerge from this comparative review: external assessments could be more innovative to capture a wider range of student capabilities; the role of teacher assessment could be reconsidered; and the academic and vocational strands could be better integrated with the assessment system to offer a broader range of curriculum options. |
| Date: | 2021–08–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaab:253-en&r= |
| By: | Wei Cheng; Bruce A. Weinberg |
| Abstract: | The rapid diffusion and use of new ideas are critical for advancing and realizing the value of innovation. This paper explores the impact of demographic characteristics of innovators and potential adopters on the adoption of important new scientific ideas through networks. Using rich, population-level data on the biomedical researchers and their networks, natural language processing, and a novel two-way fixed effects strategy, we find that new ideas introduced by female scientists are under-utilized, which can be explain by two factors. First, female innovators are not as well-connected in networks; second, even at a short network distances, researchers (especially men) are less likely to adopt women’s ideas. Ideas from underrepresented racial and ethnic minorities are also less widely used. |
| JEL: | D85 J71 O31 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29179&r= |
| By: | Yeim Tanrvermi; Esra Ural Keskin; Harun Tanrivermis |
| Abstract: | The investments for the development of thermal timeshare facilities have started to grow rapidly. Timeshare property can be defined as a guaranteed, transferable and alternative right that allows its owner(s) to have a limited-term vacation, guarantees to spend at the same time and place every year, provides comfort and legally registered in the land registry. Timeshare properties are used only during a certain period of the year, leasing the remaining times to prevent the facilities from being idle, and this investment model allows a significant contribution to the local economy through the right holders. In this study, the development of timeshare investments in the field of thermal tourism has been examined in general, and in the second stage, interviews were conducted with the right holders and investors of timeshare investments in selected districts of Ankara Province. According to the Turkish Legal System ,the development and management of timeshare investment projects, the buildings and independent sections in the timeshare system must be residential properties, the beneficiary period of each property right holders should be not less than 15 days, the timeshare right can be transferred and left as a heritage to heirs, the facilities must be furnished with the annual maintenance-repair and other operating expenses equally shared, the facilities can be rented in case it cannot be used by the right holders, and the management of the facilities must be realized in accordance with the legal regulations regarding the condominium properties. The research results represent that in timeshare projects based on a condominium-principled ownership system; the total present value of the property price paid by the right owners for a certain use in the selected period of the year and the annual operating expenses are much higher than the present value of the annual rental prices, there is an option to have a holiday in comfortable conditions with the sum of the current value of the annual operating expenses and the cost of the timeshare acquisition, and consequently, timeshare investments are not rational. In the districts where field studies were conducted, although the rental prices/fees and sales values of the real estate subject to timeshare properties are 2-3 times higher than the equivalent properties in the district centre, it has been determined that the attraction of timeshare investments is low for the right holders. It should be emphasized that timeshare facilities need to be analyzed together with both timeshare investor and project developer, and that project development, appraisals, financing, construction, facility and property management services are carried out under the responsibility of real estate development and management experts to increase the project and investment success. |
| Keywords: | condominium and timeshare investments; facility and asset management.; Geothermal resources and thermal facility projects; Project Appraisal |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_225&r= |
| By: | Chiara Künzle; Sven Bienert; Cay Oertel; Werner Gleißner |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to show that the value of a real estate portfolio can be increased through systematic diversification. This value contribution can, on the one hand, be proven within a portfolio and, on the other hand, by including the owner's remaining assets. A quantification would be a comprehensible proof that a portfolio can generate an investor-specific value contribution through diversification beyond the sum of the individual market values. The basic research approach is proven using an alternative valuation method. In particular a DCF valuation is used, which is extended by a Monte Carlo Simulation. This method addresses all risks that can arise from real estate investments. This approach can help portfolio managers with transaction decisions. Moreover, it is an instrument that demonstrates the competence of the initiator and helps to achieve better financing conditions by showing professional investors the efficiency of the planned fund or portfolio. The paper presents an alternative approach to the prevailing Modern Portfolio Theory, which focuses only on the expected return on the one hand and the corresponding risk on the other. With the method applied in this paper, the value contribution of such a diversification strategy is demonstrated for the first time using market data. |
| Keywords: | Direct Property Investment; Discounted Cash Flow; Diversification; Risk Management |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_82&r= |
| By: | Jan Schaaf |
| Abstract: | The debate about urban production has been fanned by various drivers. Thanks to the new technologies of the fourth industrial revolution, the merger of the production and service sectors, and advances in environmental engineering leading to reduced harmful emissions, it is now feasible for certain areas of production to return to towns and cities. Apart from technological innovations, this departure from the usual ‘greenfield’ sites is also favoured by economic, ecological and social trends. They include reurbanization and demographic change, not to mention a growing awareness of sustainability. Above all, however, what makes urban production so appealing, possibly even imperative, is the growing trends towards individualization coupled with the desire for a better balance between family, private life and work, which is part of the vision for the European city. Urban production currently lacks a conclusive definition. Generally speaking, urban production combines modern production techniques with modern urban locations where smart production is enabled by product diversity. Urban production can mean quite a lot, namely: urban manufacturing, urban industries, and also urban agriculture or urban farming. The paper is concentrated on urban industry. This is partly because central Germany has an industrial background, and partly because there are already a number of research projects on urban manufacturing by artisan businesses. Furthermore, it is important to distinguish between whether a production site has become urban by chance or by design. Urban production poses very different challenges depending on which situation applies. The Paper is focused primarily on urban production locations that were consciously developed as such and on the following questions: What industrial sectors are suitable for (conscious) urban settlement? How can existing areas like industrial and commercial estates be suitably upgraded? How can business networks be established for the smart, sustainable use of commercial sites? How relevant are these findings for real estate management, for example for the revitalization and redevelopment of existing real estate and in particular of derelict industrial buildings? Furthermore aims are the initiation of ‘Industry and Sustainability’ transformation laboratories, the reorientation of technology and business incubators and Professionalization in the management of corporate real estate. For all these approaches, it is essential to be aware of the processes behind urban production. Only then can the right concepts and measures be applied in real estate management to create attractive urban locations. |
| Keywords: | Corporate real estate; redevelopment; urban industries; Urban production |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_189&r= |
| By: | Lawrence Souza; Olga Koroleva; Alicia Becker; China Martin; Nate Derrick |
| Abstract: | Goal of this paper is to present a roadmap for real estate operating companies to transform themselves into tech-centric enterprises. The research focuses on the impact of technology on physical real estate assets and organizational structures. The revolution in real estate technologicalization will come from new ideological thought and management paradigms. Over the last 20 years, the real estate industry has been affected by the introduction of new technologies; however, over the last 5 years, and the last 5 months due to COVID-19, has seen a massive transformation in the use and utilization of space. New technologies are rapidly changing how investors, tenants and managers use, invest, and finance property. The introduction of Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning, blockchain, virtual reality, tablets, cell phones, apps, 5G, etc. is putting pressure on real estate organizations to change. These changes are long overdue and the future, modern real estate company, will take a hybrid proptech form. A company focused on delivering high quality products and services to its clients in real time. The revolutionary change for the industry will be in its organizational and industry structure, away from the traditional hierarchical-mechanistic form, to a virtual-open-agile-innovative organizational form. Due to the current state of the economy, effects of the pandemic, and rapid adoption of new technologies will radically change the way real estate companies are organized, how they add value and innovate, and how they are led by management. The revolution in real estate technologization will not come from the application of these technologies, but from the rapid change of ideological thought and management-leadership style and culture. |
| Keywords: | Applications of Technology to Real Estate; Real Estate Technology; Real Estate Technology Case Studies; Real Estate Technology Company Organizational Structure |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_200&r= |
| By: | Moleka, Pitshou |
| Abstract: | Ubuntu as an African philosophy and culture is very important for the transformation of many cities. In this paper, I will show how the notion of Ubuntu can lead to sustainability in African cities especially in Kinshasa, characterized by poverty, marginality, exclusion, and the degradation of the environment.I will begin with an introduction to give an essay of the comprehension of the notion of Ubuntu and sustain cities. My second point will be the explanation of the methodology used in this paper, the third point will be a brief diagnosis of Kinshasa city, the next point underlines how Ubuntu has many implications in the transformation of Kinshasa, and the fifth point will be the conclusion. |
| Date: | 2021–08–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:j63ye&r= |
| By: | Franz Fuerst; Pat McAllister |
| Abstract: | The increasing policy emphasis on reducing carbon emissions has yielded a number of policies in various countries. In the UK, the Minimum Energy Efficiency Standard (MEES) made it illegal from April 2018 for landlords to let properties that did not meet a minimum energy performance standard - an Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) rating of E or higher. Although this policy has a relatively low cap on costs that landlords are expected to spend to upgrade their buildings, a dilemma for policy makers has been the trade-off between the compliance costs for owners and occupiers and potential improvements in energy consumption. An expected effect of introducing MEES is that improvements will be capitalised into the prices of properties. Implicitly, it is also expected that removing properties rated EPC F and G from the market will lead to changes to the relative demand and supply of policy compliant and non-compliant properties. The result is then increased demand for compliant properties and higher price differentials between compliant and non-compliant properties. Using a large dataset of residential sales transactions from 2009-2020, we study the price impact of MEES with a difference-in-difference approach and a regression discontinuity design. Our dataset allows us to compare the price trajectories of rental properties to the general housing market both before and after the introduction of the policy for the entire spectrum of energy efficient buildings. Although properties can hypothetically be switched between the owner-occupier and the private rental segments, we expect a stronger effect on the latter. Our research design also controls for a number of minor and major fiscal and regulatory changes since 2015 that have been introduced independently of MEES that could potentially distort the findings. |
| Keywords: | Energy Efficiency; Minimum Standards; Pricing of Residential Real Estate; Private Rental Market |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_123&r= |
| By: | Krzysztof Kowalke; Bernhard Funk |
| Abstract: | Polish government has contemplated introducing the REIT format into Polish legislation, allowing for formation of REITs in Poland for investment purposes. However, by the start auf 2021, Polish REIT (PL-REIT) legislation has not been enacted. Other countries have specific but not necessarily consistent growth trajectories with the introduction of REIT vehicles. United States of America saw a strong growth in market capitalization especially with the begin of the 1990s, transforming US REITs into a very important attractor for capital in the real estate investment market and offering investment opportunity into REIT shares both for private and institutional clients, Germany on the contrary has seen less dynamic growth with unsatisfactory market momentum of its G-REIT market. It is therefore assumed important to identify the drivers that cause success or failure of an investment vehicle and its regulatory framework in the light of country specific market preconditions. The research focus of the paper is cross-country comparison between the US and German REIT markets aimed to deduct the success factors that help formulate the preconditions and framework required to establish a feasible PL-REIT structure and outline the factors that improve chances for a viable PL-REIT market introduction and market growth. The paper´s focus is looking at the framework of PL-REIT introduction by looking at the Polish real estate investment market´s market size, types of investment vehicles and market potential, including regulatory factors. |
| Keywords: | Indirect investment vehicles; legal framework; Polish real estate market; Real Estate Investment Trusts |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_120&r= |
| By: | Purvi Sevak; Kathleen Feeney; Todd Honeycutt; Emily Peterson |
| Abstract: | The Linking Learning to Careers (LLC) program offered high school students with disabilities an individualized and targeted approach to strategically plan for their futures. This report presents evidence on LLC’s impacts up to two years after students enrolled in the program. |
| Keywords: | Linking Learning to Careers, transition-age youth, program evaluation, impact evaluation |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:3766157791234eccb0f22c173b709d38&r= |
| By: | Kensuke Ohtake |
| Abstract: | We consider the extension of the mathematical models presented by Pfl\"{u}ger (2004) and Gasper et al. (2018) in new economic geography to continuous space, and investigate the behavior of its solution mathematically. The model is a system of nonlinear integral and differential equations describing the market equilibrium and the time evolution of the spatial distribution of population density. The stability of homogeneous stationary solution with evenly distributed population is shown to be unstable. Furthermore, it is shown numerically that the destabilized homogeneous stationary solution eventually forms spiky spatial distributions. The number of the spikes decreases as the preference for variety increases or the transport cost decreases. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2108.12217&r= |
| By: | Vincent Roberdel; Ioulia Ossokina; Theo Arentze |
| Abstract: | In the coming decades, many countries need to improve the energy efficiency of their building stock, to realize the climate and renewable energy goals. In the Netherlands, this involves more than 5 million dwellings and many billions euros in costs. Around half of these costs will be carried by public housing providers who are required by regulation to radically improve the insulation and heating in their extensive dwelling stock. Existing research suggests that the energy savings from energy retrofitting in homes strongly depend on residents’ behavioural responses. Savings predicted by engineering models are often not realized due to the rebound effect – consumers tend to increase their energy consumption after retrofitting (e.g. Fowlie et al., 2018, Davis et al., 2014, Alcott and Greenstone, 2017, Aydin et al., 2017). Much less is known however about the determinants of the rebound on a household level: how does it differ by type of technology, type of household and dwelling. Our study aims to fill this knowledge gap, specifically for the public housing sector. We exploit unique dwelling-level data on some 2 thousand energy retrofitting investments performed by Dutch public housing providers between 2015 and 2018. Detailed longitudinal information on the energy efficiency measures per dwelling is merged to the restricted access data about the socio-economic characteristics, dwelling characteristics and energy consumption of the resident households. We identify econometrically the effect of retrofitting on energy savings with a propensity score matching methodology, by comparing the changes in the energy use in retrofitted dwellings and in similar non-retrofitted houses. Then, the rebound effect is derived and its determinants are examined. We extend the literature by providing new microdata-based evidence for a European country, comparing the behavioural effects of various energy-saving home technologies and looking specifically at the public housing sector. This paper has practical implications. Detailed insight in the size and determinants of household behavioural responses to retrofitting measures is crucial to optimally shape energy transition (e.g. Ossokina et al., 2020). Our paper will give public housing providers tools to anticipate on behavioural responses of tenants by customizing energy retrofitting measures and selecting tailored investments for specic household and dwelling groups. |
| Keywords: | behavioural responses; energy-efficient investments in homes; microeconometrics; Public Housing |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_117&r= |
| By: | Mattea Stein (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF) |
| Abstract: | Micro-enterprise owners in developing country industrial clusters interact through networks of horizontal business collaboration, information-sharing, and friendship links, despite the potential for close competition inherent in this setting. This paper explores how such business links change, and specifically whether they can be endogenous to a public policy intervention that provides training to some network members but not others. Using a randomized training for micro-entrepreneurs in Kampala, Uganda, together with novel panel network data, I find a positive effect on linking likelihoods, driven by untreated entrepreneurs to whom links with treated entrepreneurs become more desirable. As predicted by a bilateral network formation framework, it is the relatively lower-status treated who attract new connections with relatively higher-status untreated. Furthermore, links within clusters of treated enterprises are strengthened, which is not due to a strategic replacement of untreated with treated partners out of a competition motive but seems to be an effect of jointly attending the training. Together, my findings show that public policy interventions can cause networks to re-wire, with important implications both for research and policy. |
| Keywords: | network formation, network change, social networks, firms, micro-enterprises |
| Date: | 2021–09–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:622&r= |
| By: | Nagwa Kady |
| Abstract: | Social value is gaining unexpected attention in the property industry, triggered by Sustainable Development Goals, social awareness, ethical consumption, and the demand for business transparency and accountability. As such, businesses have transformed their corporate social responsibility (CSR) strategies from philanthropic to creating shared value- i.e., coupling financial performance to social benefit. Interest in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) has accelerated since 2019 due to the global pandemic. Investors have been keen on integrating ESG standards to measure the sustainability and impact of their investments; however, majority of the focus has been on environmental aspects. Only recently have property market actors paid attention to the social aspect, as the current global health crises exasperated social issues in urban areas thus, instigating awareness on the implications of social conditions on investments’ value. Using empirical data, this study looks into the various formal and informal institutions that aid the production of social value in property development in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. More specifically, it studies the structures and mechanisms (i.e. values, norms, rules) that guide property market actors and their practices, which in turn influence development outcomes, and shape urban areas and its wider communities. I argue that harnessing social value requires a better understanding of the complex institutions that guide social outcomes in property developments and urban areas at large. Data will be collected from policy documents, municipal websites, property market publications, and semi-structured in-depth interviews with actors, thus providing a thorough interpretation of social value and assessment of strategies and interests that shape development outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Corporate Social Responsibility; Property Development; social value; Urban Planning |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_108&r= |
| By: | Nicola Livingstone; Danielle Sanderson |
| Abstract: | The development of purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) in the UK has been significant and substantial since the global financial crisis of 2008. As we will demonstrate, such growth has been supported by increasing institutional investment flows into this contemporary real estate sector. PBSA is underexamined in academic research and is an ‘emerging niche market that deserves more attention’ (French et al, 2018: 578). Recognising the growth of non-traditional real estate, IPF (2015) commissioned a report which determined that PBSA was perceived as being the most ‘mainstream’ of the ‘alternative’ real estate investment opportunities. Through this paper we take the opportunity to question how the terms ‘mainstream’ and ‘alternative’, ‘mature’ and ‘emerging’, are defined, considering how they are understood from the variegated perspective of market actors. We unpack nuanced perspectives on risk and opportunities within the PBSA market, considering perceptions of resilience, diversification and investment strategies more broadly. Findings are drawn from an ongoing European project into residential investment flows (https://whatisgovernedincities.eu/), and we triangulate perspectives drawn from literature, data and primary research on the development and transition of PBSA as a ‘maturing’ asset class. Quantitative analyses of investment trends in the UK between 2005 – 2020 using data provided by Real Capital Analytics (RCA) will be presented, combined with findings from semi-structured interviews. Provisional findings will be presented, reflecting on the perceived level of maturity and resilience in the UK’s PBSA market. |
| Keywords: | Investment; maturing asset classes; purpose-built student accommodation; Residential |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_55&r= |
| By: | Nordström, Jonas (AgriFood economics centre); Hammarlund, Cecilia (AgriFood economics centre) |
| Abstract: | The increased urbanization and human population growth of recent decades have resulted in the loss of urban green spaces. One policy used to prevent the loss of urban green space is ecological compensation. Ecological compensation is the final step in the mitigation hierarchy; compensation measures should thus be a last resort, after all opportunities to implement the earlier steps of the hierarchy have been exhausted. The compensation should balance the ecological damage, aiming for a “no net loss” of biodiversity and ecosystem services. In this study, we develop a simple model that can be used as tool to study the welfare effects of applying ecological compensation when green space is at risk of being exploited, both at an aggregate level for society and for different groups of individuals. Our focus is on urban green space and the value of the ecosystem service – recreation – that urban green space provides. In a case study we show how the model can be used in the planning process to evaluate the welfare effects of compensation measures at various sites within the city. The results from the case study indicate that factors such as population density and proximity to green space have a large impact on aggregate welfare from green space and on net welfare when different compensation sites are compared against each other. |
| Keywords: | Urban green space; Ecological compensation; Recreational value; Wellbeing; Utility; Welfare effects; Distributional effects |
| JEL: | D60 Q26 Q50 Q57 R52 R58 |
| Date: | 2021–08–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:luagri:2021_003&r= |
| By: | Julian Seger; Eduard Gaar; Benjamin Wagner; Andreas Pfnür |
| Abstract: | Structural and dynamic changes, intensified by the current pandemic situation, con-front companies with high levels of uncertainty. This becomes a challenge especially when deci-sions have to be made about resources that are critical to success and difficult to revise, such as ownership of corporate real estate. This article examines how uncertainty affects the holding of specific property and whether corporate real estate ownership has a positive or negative impact on firm performance under consideration of business uncertainty. Two studies have been conducted. In the first study, multivariate cross-sectional regression analysis is used to test the link between specificity and corporate real estate (CRE) ownership under business uncertainty. Balance sheet data of non-property companies of the six biggest European economies is used. For the second study, the sample was expanded to all companies listed in Europe and their capital market data to investigate the influence of the corporate real estate ownership on firm performance under uncertainty. The empirical results show a positive link between specificity and CRE ownership. Additionally, companies seem to adjust their investment behaviour in specific properties under uncertainty by avoiding or postponing investments or even writing-off specific real estate assets due to their transfer to a new use. Furthermore, the results show that the excess returns decrease in the medium term as CRE ownership under uncertainty increases. Our findings also indicate that regardless of the uncertainty situation, CRE ownership reduces the systematic risk. Thus, ownership seems to have a diversifying effect. This paper expands the scientific discourse by explicitly linking real estate specificity with the choice between ownership, leasing or rental solutions and firm performance. The article clarifies that in order to avoid inefficiencies, the irreversibility of specific real estates should be considered in the CRE ownership decision especially by firms operating in a structurally chang-ing business environment. |
| Keywords: | business uncertainty; Corporate real estate ownership; Firm Performance; real estate specificity |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_87&r= |
| By: | Iheanyi Nnodirim Alaka; Chika Clara Sam-Otuonye |
| Abstract: | Introduction: In the South-East of Nigeria, investors/ managers in real estate investing face diverse challenges which ought to be considered at the feasibility studies of the development project through to its completion, letting and management phases. The core target of these development and maintenance management activities is to minimize the development/maintenance costs to sustain the real estate in a manner as to generate reasonable returns. Labour costs variations is an inevitable item in real estate investing that defines the possible trend in rental value decisions, as well as determination of returns therefrom. Its supply and options therefore needs more insight to guide the direction of decision making/giving depending on the nature of labour involvement.Aim: This paper aims to demonstrate the application of labour constant model in weighing and selecting most satisfactory labour cost options during development stage and investment management stage in typical real estate investments within the South-East region of Nigeria.Methodology: This study takes experimentally exploratory approach to demonstrate the applicability of the Labour Constant model for purposes of labour cost minimization in real estate investments at development and operational stages. The operational conditions considered in the study are constrained to experiences obtainable within the study area (i.e. South-East States of Nigeria). Some raw data were sourced through interviews granted by sampled contractors within the study area.Findings: Sustainable real estate investment demands prompt but wise decisions especially in selecting between options on labour costs which can is better handled using labour costs model experimented in this study for better decision-making.Implications: This study has economic implications pertaining to cost minimization during development or operational stages on a real estate investment. The outcome of this study has strong implications to cost handling in relation to investment returns from commercial real estates. However the need for further exploration and expansion of this study is essential.Originality: The study is a nascent development which tends to explain how analysts and property/facility managers could more confidently guide real estate investors in making decisions regarding labour costs in managing real estate development projects or management. |
| Keywords: | Decision-making; Financing; Labour costs; Real Estate Investment |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_17&r= |
| By: | Matthias Soot; Sabine Horvath; Hans-Berndt Neuner; Alexandra Weitkamp |
| Abstract: | In this work, we compare the results of multiple linear regression analysis (MLR) with spatial analysis method (geographically weighted regressions (GWR)) and an artificial neural network (ANN) approach deriving a state-wide model for property yields. The database consists of approx. 3000 purchase prices in the market of multi-family houses collected in the purchase price database of Lower Saxony (Germany). The purchases occurred between 2014 and 2018. The locational quality as well as the theoretical age (deprecation) of the real estates are the influencing variables in the analysis. In the GWR, different fixed and variable kernels are used. The approaches are evaluated using cross-validation procedure with quality parameters like the root mean square error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE) and the error below 5% (eb5). The first analysis shows that GWR leads to better results in comparison to classical approaches (MLR) because local phenomena can be modelled. Also, the approach of ANN is superior in comparison to the classical regression analysis because of its ability of nonlinear modelling. In this dataset, the ANN cannot reach the accuracy of GWR which leads to the conclusion, that the spatial inhomogeneity has a bigger influence than a data non-linearity. Further investigation shows that the complexity of the data and the amount of available data plays a key role in the performance of ANN. |
| Keywords: | ANN; GWR; Multi family houses; property yields |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_44&r= |
| By: | da Cruz, Nuno F.; Oh, Do Young; Badaoui Choumar, Nathalie |
| Abstract: | The growth of metropolitan areas is reshaping the urban landscape and governance around the world, producing new challenges but also opportunities for sustainable development and the management of territories. The ‘metropolitan scale’ is now internationally recognised as a key concept and perspective through which we should consider various socio-economic, spatial and political dimensions. However, our understanding of metropolitan dynamics is curtailed by a substantial lack of information at this scale. Global databases on metropolitan areas are very limited. To tackle the void, this paper employs simple definitions and heuristics to collect and present comparable data for 58 metropolises from five continents. There is a clear trade-off between the accuracy of the data and the comprehensiveness of datasets. We reflect on the experience to emphasise the obstacles that lie ahead of both scholars and policy-makers at all levels of government. A strong system of cities and metropolitan areas and the appropriate governance of these scales may provide the basis for a balanced socio-economic development – but first we will need to know more about these territories and communities. |
| Keywords: | data; functional area; governance; metropolis |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2020–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:103316&r= |
| By: | Shazmin Shareena Zis; Muhammad Najib Razali; Hishamuddin Mohd. Ali; Ibrahim Sipan; Nurul Hana Adi Maimun |
| Abstract: | An impervious surface generates high storm water runoff volumes which overwhelm drainage systems caused frequent urban flash flood episodes. Green roof is a highly efficient green infrastructure in reducing urban storm water runoff. Studies have agreed on most important green roof characteristics that contributed in reducing storm water runoff are substrates depth, type of vegetation, and roof slope. However, to date, no study has drawn a connection between these performances and cost that contributes to the performance. This is important as cost is the utmost barrier for green roof implementation. Therefore, this study motivates to assess cost and benefit of substrates depth, type of vegetation, and roof slope for intensive and extensive green roof. Roof slope is the utmost cost-efficient green roof characteristics for storm water runoff reduction at 1: 1.5 and 1: 2.2 for extensive and intensive green roof. Type of vegetation contributes to the highest cost for both green roofs. Substrate depth is only cost-efficient for intensive green roof at ratio 1: 1.4. This study is significant in encouraging building owner and investor to implement green roof by providing substantial evidence on it efficiencies and cost that contributes to the effectiveness. This will eventually promote the growth of green building within building sectors. |
| Keywords: | Cost; Flash flood; Green Roof; Runoff |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_4&r= |
| By: | Cohen, Adam; Shaheen, Susan; Broader, Jacquelyn; Martin, Elliot |
| Abstract: | The Federal Transit Administration’s (FTA) Mobility on Demand (MOD) Sandbox Program provides a venue through which integrated MOD concepts and strategies, supported through local partnerships, are demonstrated in real-world settings. This case study documents lessons learned from the Chicago Transit Authority (CTA) MOD Sandbox Demonstration, called Ventra–Divvy Integration. The case study is a part of an independent evaluation of the MOD Sandbox Demonstrations sponsored by the USDOT Intelligent Transportation Systems Joint Program Office (ITS JPO) and FTA. The case study includes background on CTA’s MOD Sandbox Demonstration, technical and institutional challenges encountered in the demonstration’s first phase, payment integration and unbanked access as part of the second phase of the demonstration, and discussion of lessons learned and recommended practices identified from this demonstration. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Mobility on Demand, MOD, sandbox, shared mobility, mobility as a service, independent evaluation, bikesharing, micromobility, payment, integration |
| Date: | 2021–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt2679828b&r= |
| By: | Palma Filep-Mosberger (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)); Attila Lindner (University College London, MTA KTI); Judit Rariga (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study firm-bank relationship formation. Combining domestic inter-firm network data from value-added tax declarations and credit registry for Hungary, we estimate the spillover effects in bank choice, identifying from variation on the bank level. Having at least one peer in the network who has an existing loan with a bank increases the probability that the firm will borrow a new loan from the same bank. We provide suggestive evidence that the estimated spillover effect is due to firm-to-firm information transmission about banks. According to our results, firms can learn about banking practices from their peers but they also point to financial stability concerns in the event of shocks to domestic supply chains. |
| Keywords: | bank choice, firm network, spillover effects. |
| JEL: | G30 L14 D22 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2021/1&r= |
| By: | Thomas Vogl |
| Abstract: | Time and again, after crises in the course of history, stricter building regulations occurred and not only had a sustained impact on the occupants but also the operator and the builders. For example, after the fire of 1942 in the Coconut Grove nightclub in Boston, outward-swinging doors and emergency exit signs were implemented and became the international standard. Unbreakable glass and concrete core constructions resulted from the experience of 9/11. The corona pandemic, which has been spreading since the end of 2019, presented unforeseen challenges and uncertainties, not least for institutional investors of office properties or Corporate Real Estate Managers. The home office, which was previously often negative, had to be implemented rapidly on an unprecedented scale and led to very low occupancy rates in office buildings. Companies ran into cash flow problems and government assistance was necessary to cover the rental costs for unused workspaces. Despite positive developments for a vaccine, experts predict a permanent upheaval in the design and planning of workplace demands. This analysis of the latest literature is focusing on the physical and organizational provisions being debated in terms of infection-resistant work environments and the associated impacts on the real estate office market are deducted. As it's now well-established that COVID-19 transmission commonly occurs in closed spaces by particles containing the virus, the demands for stricter hygiene measures and effective heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system could pave the way for a new type of office with a hospital-like character. The predicted increase of remote working concepts ensures (social) distancing, but increases the need for digitalization and leads to low occupancy rates and therefore reduced demand for office spaces. Alongside these aspects, physical implementations in existing office buildings like high-walled booths, wide corridors, one-way traffic, and air inlet systems could influence construction costs and office fit-outs. The line of discussion will focus on the predicted solutions for infection-resistant offices and the impact on the real estate office market which are associated with their implementations. |
| Keywords: | Costs; Office; Pandemic; Workplace |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_116&r= |
| By: | María Isabel Ayuda; Pablo Gómez; Vicente Pinilla |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to investigate to how the characteristics of the different types of human settlements explain their demographic dynamics and therefore which of these have been affected to a greater extent by depopulation processes. For this purpose, we analyze the evolution of the population of Aragon (northeastern Spain) in the period 1900-2001, according to the different types of existing population settlements. Our results show that access to public services has played an essential role, especially when the construction of the welfare state made the rural population feel that there was a penalty for residing in settlements with problems of accessibility to them. The provincial capitals benefited the most from their greater provision of services. The main settlements, headquarters of the municipal administration, also had advantages over the secondary settlements. Finally, the scattered population was the most affected and, therefore, the one that emigrated to a greater extent, until this form of residence practically disappeared. The advantages of a better geographic location also were important, as well as the greater proximity to railway networks. The initial size was also relevant, favoring a greater growth or a lesser decrease (when there was) of the larger settlements. |
| Keywords: | Rural human settlements, depopulation, demographic dynamics |
| JEL: | J11 N14 N34 N94 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:seh:wpaper:2104&r= |
| By: | Nan Maxwell; Jeanne Bellotti; Peter Schochet; Paul Burkander; Emilyn Whitesell; Erin Dillon; Hande Inanc; Christian Geckeler; Raquel González |
| Abstract: | This impact report summarizes findings from Mathematica’s evaluation of the Youth CareerConnect program, a high school–based program that blends academic and career-focused learning and aims to prepare students for both college and careers. |
| Keywords: | Youth CareerConnect, college and career pathway, high school, career and technical education |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:8b75d63f2a684f4d99689de186e59f07&r= |
| By: | Alejandro Bayas; Nicolas Grau |
| Abstract: | To what extent should young people be normatively held responsible for committing a crime? To contribute to this debate, we study the role of inequality of opportunity in juvenile crime behavior. Drawing on Roemer’s theoretical framework and using administrative data from Chile, we empirically evaluate how much of the responsibility for the crime was determined by structural factors (i.e., circumstances) and how much was determined by decisions taken by the perpetrator (i.e., agency). Overall, we find evidence of substantial inequality of opportunity in this context. Specifically, we find that the contribution of circumstances varies between 46.44% and 32.10%, when explaining crime among males. As a benchmark analysis, we find that the role of circumstances in high school completion is less relevant than in criminal behavior, with levels between 34.80% and 18.54%. Finally, our study contradicts previous literature— suggesting that a different conception of equality of opportunity does change the conclusion regarding the relative contribution of agency versus circumstances. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udc:wpaper:wp524&r= |
| By: | Philipp Maximilian Mueller; Björn-Martin Kurzrock |
| Abstract: | Due to numerous documents and the lack of widely acknowledged standards, the capture and provision of information in transaction processes frequently remains challenging. Since construction and maintenance come with substantial costs, the evaluation of the structural condition and maintenance requirements as well as the assessment of contracts and legal structures are important in real estate transactions. The quality and completeness of digital building documentation is increasingly becoming a factor as deal maker and deal breaker. Artificial intelligence can well assist in the classification of documents and extraction of information This research provides fundamentals for generating a (semi-)automated standardized technical and legal assessment of buildings. Based on a large building documentation set from (institutional) investors, the potential for digital processing, automated classification and information extraction through machine learning algorithms is demonstrated. For this purpose, more than 400 document classes are derived, reviewed, prioritized and principally checked for machine readability. In addition, key information is structured and prioritized for technical and legal due diligence. The paper highlights recommendations for improving the machine readability of documents and indicates the potential for partially automating technical and legal due diligence processes. The practical recommendations are relevant for investors, owners, users and service providers who depend on specific real estate information as well as for companies that develop or use software tools. For policymaking, the research offers some guidance for standardizing documents to support digital information processing in real estate. The recommendations are helpful for improving information processing and in general, promoting the use of automated information extraction based on machine learning in real estate. |
| Keywords: | digital building documentation; Due diligence; Machine Learning; property research trust |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_65&r= |
| By: | Lawrence Souza; Regina Cuevas; Kayla Moniz; China Martin; Alicia Becker |
| Abstract: | With the development and advances in life science over the past 10 years, this real estate market has seen rising demand for space due to the development of new drugs and diagnostics on a worldwide basis, particularly in the San Francisco Bay Area. The challenge for life science start-up companies are rising costs of tools to carry out experiments, need for proper security equipment, and limited availability of working spaces. Small companies are facing significant challenges to developing and delivering new products and drugs to market. As stated by Cushman and Wakefield (2019), people over 65 years old are forecast to double over the next 10 years, driving the urgency to create potential cures; this is projected to have a direct impact on profitability of life science businesses. Life science profit margins can be enhanced directly through the use of life science incubators. According to the Georgia Department of Public Health, COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), also known as the Coronavirus Disease (2019), is a disease that was identified in Wuhan, China. This disease has spread rapidly throughout the world, and at this point has encouraged individuals to take multiple precautions throughout their daily life. According to the Center for Disease Control (CDC), just in the United States as of August 2020, there are over 5.8 million infections and 180,000 deaths, with no vaccines or drug treatments anticipated until 2021. With this new and unpredictable pandemic, declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of March 11th of 2020, significantly impacting the role of life science as a target investment property sector for the real estate industry. The pandemic will drive significant demand for life science space from the funding of new and legacy biotechnology companies, as they fight the disease with the development of new testing, vaccinations, and potential treatments. The pandemic is projected to attract significant capital to the analytic and life science sectors, as investors (venture capitalists) understand the importance of life science investments. However, there will be certain real estate sectors that will suffer, particularly the office sector as reflected in low and falling occupancy rates, negative net absorption, falling rents and values. This is an opportunity to convert existing and fully functionally obsolete and physically deteriorated space to the highest-best-use of life science campuses and incubators. This paper explores and defines the life science incubator concept, as well as the market opportunities, comparative advantage, employment, venture capital flows, and commercialization. Based on this research we recommend investment in life science real estate. The following section discusses the impact of COVID-19 on the life science marketplace. |
| Keywords: | Agglomeration Economies and Clustering Effects; Life Science; Life Science Technology Impact on Real Estate |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_201&r= |
| By: | Grigsby-Calage, Chuck; Mullally, Conner C.; Volpe, Richard J. |
| Keywords: | Marketing, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Agribusiness |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea21:312902&r= |
| By: | André de Palma; Lucas Javaudin; Patrick Stokkink; Léandre Tarpin-Pitre (CY Cergy Paris Université, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | In ridesharing, commuters with similar itineraries share a vehicle for their trip. Despite its clear benefits in terms of reduced congestion, ridesharing is not yet widely accepted. We propose a specific ridesharing variant, where drivers are completely in exible. This variant can form a competitive alternative against private transportation, due to the limited e orts that need to be made by drivers. However, due to this in exibility, matching of drivers and riders can be substantially more complicated, compared to the situation where drivers can deviate. In this work, we identify the e ect of such a ridesharing scheme on the congestion in a real network of the ^Ile-de-France area for the morning commute. We use a dynamic mesoscopic trac simulator, Metropo- lis, which computes departure-time choices and route choices for each commuter. The matching is solved heuristically outside the simulation framework, before departures occur. We show that even with in exible drivers, ridesharing can alleviate congestion. By slightly increasing exibility, the performance of the ridesharing scheme can be further improved. Furthermore, we show that ridesharing can lead to fuel savings, CO2 emission reductions and travel time savings on a network level, even with a low participation rate. |
| Keywords: | Ridesharing, Carpooling, Matching, Dynamic Congestion |
| JEL: | R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2021-16&r= |
| By: | Keiro Hattori (Ryukoku University) |
| Abstract: | Japan's population peaked in 2008; the country has been losing inhabitants since then, with geographical disparities in terms of degree of demographic shrinking and territorial devitalisation. Metropolitan areas like Tokyo are still demographically growing whereas many small and mid-sized cities have been losing their population, but this is under-investigated in literature on shrinking cities and urban dynamics, especially in English. This paper attempts to clarify the types of indicators that correlate with social population change in "non-metropolitan urban Japan": we have tried to identify potential correlations between social migratory population change (measured by net migration) and some social and economic indicators in small and mid-sized cities (population under 50,000). From 2010 to 2019, we picked 30 municipalities that have regis-tered the biggest demographic gains thanks to social migratory increase (in-migration), and 30 others that have suffered the biggest population losses out of social migratory decrease (out-migration), so as to see if there is any statistical difference between these groups with regards to certain economic or social indicators |
| Abstract: | La population japonaise a atteint son maximum historique en 2008 et ne cesse de décroître depuis. Cependant, il existe des inégalités géographiques dans l'ampleur de cette décroissance. Les aires métropolitaines telles que Tokyo continuent de croître démographiquement, tandis que de nombreuses villes petites et moyennes ont perdu de la population ; mais cela fait l'objet de très peu de publications, notamment en langue anglaise. Cette communication propose de tester différents facteurs explicatifs grâce à un ensemble d'indicateurs économiques et sociaux. À cette fin, l'auteur a cherché à identifier des corrélations entre le changement démographique et des indicateurs économiques et sociaux dans l'ensemble de ces villes (moins de 50 000 habitants). Il a ensuite sélectionné, sur 2010-2018, les 30 municipalités qui ont gagné le plus d'habitants et les 30 qui en ont perdu le plus, afin de vérifier s'il existe une différence statistique significative entre ces groupes sur la base de plusieurs indicateurs socio-économiques |
| Keywords: | Shrinking small and mid-sized municipalities,Social migratory population increase,T-Test,Japanese shrinking and aging phenomena,municipalités petites et moyennes en décroissance,croissance démographique par soldes migratoires,T-test,phénomènes de décroissance et de vieillissement au Japon |
| Date: | 2020–11–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03115183&r= |
| By: | Pereira, Rafael H. M.; Boisjoly, Geneviève |
| Abstract: | Introduction chapter to the book Pereira & G. Boisjoly (Editors), Social Issues in Transport Planning (Advances in Transport Policy and Planning Vol. 8). Elsevier. 2021 |
| Date: | 2021–08–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:pn2qd&r= |
| By: | Abdulkader Mostafa; Colin Jones |
| Abstract: | Unlike many other countries Britain had a weak private rented sector (PRS) for most of the twentieth century. After long term decline for almost a century private landlordism in Britain began a revival from the turn of the millennium. This recovery has still not arguably established a mature sector and this paper examines the steps in its progress by reference to changing returns over time. The platform for this rebirth was the removal of regulation of the sector and the arrival of buy to let (BTL) mortgages that enabled private individuals to invest in property to let, without being penalised by high (previous) interest rates. The number of BTL landlords expanded dramatically in the property boom of the noughties, supported by high debt gearing and a favourable tax position. The downturn in the economy/housing market following the global finance crisis had important consequences for the still fragile BTL sector. The subsequent experience of the sector has seen its growth stabilise and it has seen increased taxation. The financial attractiveness of BTL appears severely diminished and raises questions about the viability of the sector. It also begs the question as to whether if these tax changes were in place from 1996 whether the BTL boom could have happened at all. The paper assesses these questions by a series of financial simulations that examines changing returns through the boom, bust, and recovery from the global financial crisis. In doing so this research technique offers insights into the changing economics of BTL. The research, in particular, considers the role of different levels of gearing through this cycle. It also explores to what extent outright acquisitions would have yielded significantly different returns. It considers the return differentials across eleven regions in Britain and examines the implications of recent tax changes on returns. |
| Keywords: | Britain; Buy-to-let; landlords; Returns |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_199&r= |
| By: | Sylla Maldini; Andrée De Serres; Ahlem Hajjem |
| Abstract: | The limitation of the global warming caused by the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions is one of the majors stake of the XXI century. Numerous international agreements have been released toward this topic as the Earth Summit of Stockolm in 1972, the one of Rio in 1992, the Kyoto’s protocol in 1997, the Climate energy package of the European Union in 2008, the Paris Agreement in 2015 or the 2030 agenda for sustainable development of the United Nations. 15% of these GHG emissions on a global level are caused by road transportation (International energy agency, 2016). However, when an individual mooves it is the most of the time to go from a building to another building in order to enjoy the services that it offers. Thus, what is the role of the real estate in the coconstruction of the sustainable mobility? The interest of this research is to answer this question by focusing on the perception the actors of the mobility and the real estate have of this role. In fact, even if the literature is rich concerning the “real estate” and the “sustainable mobility” concepts, it is very scarce once looking for the study of these two concepts combined. In order to proceed to this research, the study of different types of materials has been made. Firstly, there has been the creative material coming from the cocreative workshop which has taken place during the 2018 edition of the Movin’On Summit. Secondly, there has been the survey distributed during the 2018 ans 2019 editions of the Movin’On Summit and during the 2019 edition of the Journées de l’Innovation (Innvation days) of the University of Quebec in Montreal School of Management (ESG UQAM). The results show on one hand that the pair “real estate-mobility” has a potential that should be better exploited, on the other hand it found a subconcious knowledge that exists toward this domain. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change; Real estate manager; Sustainable mobility; Sustainable Real Estate |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_107&r= |
| By: | Matthias Kirsten; Florian Hackelberg |
| Abstract: | The classic department store properties (German: “Warenhaus”) have worked very well for decades, generated attractive returns and usually had a great magnetic effect in the central inner-city locations. The changing consumer behavior and the later emerging e-commerce trend led to a profound change in stationary retail. The death of numerous department stores was the result and let to the questions about possible re-use concepts. The presentation starts with a definition of the asset class and presents the conceptual, structural and architectural characteristics of department stores. The following points, which are currently being discussed in science and in practice, give the main part of the presentation its central theme: Based on the specific conceptual and structural characteristics of a department store property, which are the potential options for the property when the department store closes - demolition and redevelopment of the site or, perhaps better, conversion of the property? Analysis of successful redevelopment concepts of German department store properties - risks and opportunities for the real estate market. The findings are based on a quantitative analysis of re development concepts in over 50 closed department stores in Germany over the past ten years The real estate valuation of department stores before and after the department store closes Current practical valuator experiences and benchmarks on redeveloped department store properties Summary of the most important findings and an outlook on further research fields Prof. Dr. Florian Hackelberg MRICS, Professor for Real Estate Valuation at the HAWK University of Applied Sciences and Arts in Germany, will introduce the outlined topic from an academic perspective, while M.Sc. Dipl.-Ing. (FH) Matthias Kirsten MRICS, valuation expert of Value AG - the valuation group will share his view on the latest trends and developments in the market. |
| Keywords: | Appraisal; department store property; second use; Valuation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2021_53&r= |
| By: | Judit Temesvary; Andrew Wei |
| Abstract: | We study how U.S. banks' exposure to the economic fallout due to governments' response to Covid-19 in foreign countries has affected their credit provision to borrowers in the United States. We combine a rarely accessed dataset on U.S. banks' cross-border exposure to borrowers in foreign countries with the most detailed regulatory ("credit registry") data that is available on their U.S.-based lending. We compare the change in the U.S. lending of banks that are more vs. less exposed to the pandemic abroad, during and after the onset of Covid-19 in 2020. We document strong spillover effects: U.S. banks with higher foreign exposures in badly "Covid-19-hit" regions cut their lending in the United States substantially more. This effect is particularly strong for longer-maturity loans and term loans and is robust to controlling for firms’ pandemic exposure. |
| Keywords: | Cross-border exposure; Bank lending; Bank capital; Bank balance sheet liquidity |
| JEL: | F34 F65 G15 G21 |
| Date: | 2021–08–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2021-56&r= |
| By: | Małgorzata Walerych |
| Abstract: | The 2004 EU enlargement has triggered large and rapid migration movements from the new to the old member states. The scale of this outflow was unprecedented in the CEE history and its structure was also different from previous emigration waves as it was more heavily biased towards young and educated people. I exploit this post-accession emigration wave to study the aggregate and redistributive effects of emigration. Using a two-country general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents and endogenous migration choice calibrated to Polish data, I show that emigration lowers output per capita and improves the international investment position of the source country. Changes in population structure resulting from population outflows affect the wage distribution between high-skilled and low-skilled workers, thereby increasing economic inequalities. Moreover, I find that lifting labour mobility barriers is beneficial not only for people who move abroad, but also for skilled never-migrants. |
| Keywords: | migration, sending country, heterogenous agents, EU accession |
| JEL: | F22 J61 D31 D58 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2021066&r= |