nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2021‒07‒12
83 papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Local House Price Effects of Internal Migration in Queensland: Australia’s New Interstate Migration Capital By Isil Erol; Umut Unal
  2. Public Transport and Urban Structure By Leonardo J. Basso; Matías Navarro; Hugo Silva
  3. Do preferences for urban amenities really differ by skill? By Arntz, Melanie; Brüll, Eduard; Lipowski, Cäcilia
  4. Regularity in Urban Agglomeration Patterns and Its Macroscopic Implications for Regional Policies (Japanese) By MORI Tomoya
  5. Living on my own: the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on housing preferences By Elisa Guglielminetti; Michele Loberto; Giordano Zevi; Roberta Zizza
  6. Racial Differences in Mortgage Refinancing, Distress, and Housing Wealth Accumulation during COVID-19 By Kristopher S. Gerardi; Lauren Lambie-Hanson; Paul S. Willen
  7. Macroprudential Policy Analysis via an Agent Based Model of the Real Estate Sector By Gennaro Catapano; Francesco Franceschi; Valentina Michelangeli; Michele Loberto
  8. Only a Matter of Time? The Role of Time in School on Four-Day School Week Achievement Impacts By Thompson, Paul N.; Ward, Jason
  9. Evaluating Access to Riyadh’s Planned Public Transport System Using Geospatial Analysis By Nourah Al Hosain; Alma Alhussaini
  10. Do Universities Improve Local Economic Resilience? By Howard, Greg; Weinstein, Russell; Yang, Yuhao
  11. School Discipline and Racial Disparities in Early Adulthood By Miles Davison; Andrew Penner; Emily Penner; Nikolas Pharris-Ciurej; Sonya R. Porter; Evan Rose; Yotam Shem-Tov; Paul Yoo
  12. Housing Affordability in WA: A tale of two tenures By Adam Crowe; Alan S Duncan; Amity James; Steven Rowley
  13. Demand for rent-regulated apartments:The case of Sweden By Wilhelmsson, Mats
  14. Offices scarce but housing scarcer: estimating the premium for London office conversions By Cheshire, Paul; Kaimakamis, Katerina
  15. Migrants from High-Cost, Large Metro Areas during the COVID-19 Pandemic, Their Destinations, and How Many Could Follow By Stephan Whitaker
  16. Social Capital and Mobility: An Experimental Study By Rostislav Staněk; Ondřej Krčál; Štěpán Mikula
  17. Spatial-SIR with Network Structure and Behavior: Lockdown Rules and the Lucas Critique By Alberto Bisin; Andrea Moro
  18. The Impact of an Un(der)Funded Inclusive Education Policy: Evidence from the 2013 China Education Panel Survey By Tani, Massimiliano; Zhu, Yu; Xu, Lei
  19. Migration in Asia: What skills for the future? By Catherine Gagnon; Jason Gagnon
  20. Searching through the Haystack: The relatedness and complexity of priorities in smart specialisation strategies By Jason Deegan; Tom Broekel; Rune Dahl Fitjar
  21. Assessing the impact of megatrends on regional industrial transformations By Emanuela Sirtori; Louis Colnot
  22. Information or persuasion in the mortgage market: the role of brand names By Agnese Carella; Valentina Michelangeli
  23. Policy Significance of Regional Development SDGs from the Perspective of the History of their Adoption: Toward Regional Development SDGs Based on Roadside Stations in Japan By Ryusaku Matsuo
  24. Punishing Mayors Who Fail the Test: How do Voters Respond to Information on Educational Outcomes? By Loreto Cox; Sylvia Eyzaguirre; Francisco Gallego; Maximiliano García
  25. The socio-cultural dimension and neighbourhood effects of land use intensity strategies in Swiss grassland systems By Spoerri, Martina; El Benni, Nadja; Mack, Gabriele; Finger, Robert
  27. Congestion Reduction via Personalized Incentives By Ghafelebashi, Ali; Razaviyayn, Meisam; Dessouky, Maged
  28. The school year 2020-2021 in Hungary during the pandemic By MONOSTORI Judit
  29. Deeds or words? The local influence of anti-immigrant parties on foreigners’ flows in Italy By Cerqua, Augusto; Zampollo, Federico
  30. Developing intermediate cities By Rodríguez‐pose, Andrés; Griffiths, Jamie
  31. Criminal capital persistence: Evidence from 90,000 inmates’ releases By Santiago Tobón Zapata; Maria Antonia Escobar Bernal; Martin Vanegas Arias
  32. Hazardous Waste and Home Values: An Analysis of Treatment and Disposal Sites in the U.S. By Dennis Guignet; Christoph Nolte
  33. Regional collaboration to enhance recruitment to rural regions By Nyström, Kristina
  34. The drivers of SME innovation in the regions of the EU By Jose Luis Hervas-Oliver; Mario Davide Parrilli; Andres Rodriguez-Pose; Francisca Sempere-Ripoll
  35. Local inequalities of the COVID-19 crisis By Cerqua, Augusto; Letta, Marco
  36. Price discrimination and mortgage choice By Coen, Jamie; Kashyap, Anil; Rostom, May
  37. Generalized Spatial and Spatiotemporal ARCH Models By Philipp Otto; Wolfgang Schmid
  38. Large-scale school meal programs and student health: Evidence from rural China By Wang, Jingxi; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Deng, Guoying
  39. Prep School for Poor Kids: The Long-Run Impacts of Head Start on Human Capital and Economic Self-Sufficiency By Martha Bailey; Shuqiao Sun; Brenden Timpe
  40. The ties that bind and transform: knowledge remittances, relatedness and the direction of technical change By Valentina DI IASIO; Ernest MIGUELEZ
  41. The effect of higher-achieving peers on major choices and labor market outcomes By Jan Feld; Ulf Zölitz
  42. When a Strike Streikes Twice: Massive Student Mobilizations and Teenage By Pablo Celhay; Emilio Depetris-Chauvin; María Cristina Riquelme
  43. Keeping refugee children in school and out of work: Evidence from the world’s largest humanitarian cash transfer program By Aysun Hiziroglu Aygun; Murat Guray Kirdar; Murat Koyuncu; Quentin Stoeffler
  44. Identifying the transmission channels of credit supply shocks to household debt: price and non-price effects By Varadi, Alexandra
  45. Use-related and socio-demographic variations in urban green space preferences By Amy Phillips; Ahmed Z. Khan; Frank Canters
  46. What Is Driving Participation and Diversity Trends in Economics? A Survey of High School Students By Tanya Livermore; Mike Major
  47. Labor Migration in the European Union: The case of Central and Eastern Europe By Ondrej Schneider
  48. "Do Public Account Financial Statements Matter? Evidence from Japanese Municipalities" By Shun-ichiro Bessho; Haruaki Hirota
  49. Did the COVID-19 Pandemic Cause an Urban Exodus? By Stephan Whitaker
  50. The strength of weak and strong ties in bridging geographic and cognitive distances By Abbasiharofteh, Milad; Kinne, Jan; Krüger, Miriam
  51. The Economic Incentives of Cultural Transmission: Spatial Evidence from Naming Patterns across France By Algan, Yann; Malgouyres, Clément; Mayer, Thierry; Thoenig, Mathias
  52. Were Fourth District Local Governments Ready for a Recession? How the Great Recession Influenced How Much They Save By Cornelius Johnson; Stephan Whitaker
  53. The Problem of False Positives in Automated Census Linking: Evidence from Nineteenth-Century New York's Irish Immigrants By Tyler Anbinder; Dylan Connor; Cormac Ó Gráda; Simone Wegge
  54. How Much Help Do State and Local Governments Need? Updated Estimates of Revenue Losses from Pandemic Mitigation By Stephan Whitaker
  55. Investigating neighbourhood effects in welfare-to-work transitions By Vincent Dautel; Alessio Fusco
  56. The grocery trolley race in times of Covid-19. Evidence from Italy By Emanuela Ciapanna; Gabriele Rovigatti
  57. Consideration of Automated Vehicle Benefits and Research Needs for Rural America By Dowds, Jonathan; Sullivan, James; Rowangould, Gregory; Aultman-Hall, Lisa
  58. Cultural resilience, religion, and economic recovery: Evidence from the 2005 hurricane season By Hasan, Iftekhar; Manfredonia, Stefano; Noth, Felix
  59. When history does not matter? The rise of Quebec’s wine industry By Simon Baumgartinger-Seiringer; David Doloreux; Richard Shearmur; Michaela Trippl
  60. People-focused and Near-term Public Transit Performance Analysis By Karner, Alex
  61. Coronagraben in Switzerland: Culture and social distancing in times of COVID-19 By Deopa, Neha; Fortunato, Piergiuseppe
  62. Technologies for adapting to climate change: A case study of Korean cities and implications for Latin American cities By Kim, Hyejung
  63. Persistent political engagement: social interactions and the dynamics of protest movements By Bursztyn, Leonardo; Cantoni, Davide; Yang, David Y.; Yuchtman, Noam; Zhang, Y. Jane
  64. Police Repression and Protest Behavior: Evidence from Student Protests in Chile By Felipe González; Mounu Prem
  65. Gone with the pandemic: effects of COVID-19 on academic performance in Colombia By Luz Karime Abadía Alvarado, Silvia C. Gómez Soler, Juanita Cifuentes González; Silvia C. Gómez Soler; Juanita Cifuentes González
  66. Knowledge That's Social By Chatterjee, Sidharta; Samanta, Mousumi
  67. Using Predictive Analytics to Track Students: Evidence from a Seven-College Experiment By Bergman, Peter; Kopko, Elizabeth; Rodriguez, Julio
  68. Millennial Travelers Are More Multimodal than Older Travelers, but This Trend Might Change as They Age By Lee, Yongsung; Mokhtarian, Patricia L.; Guhathakurta, Subhrajit; Circella, Giovanni; Iogansen, Xiatian
  69. Workforce Development Needs of Transportation Sector Climate Adaptation Professionals By Dowds, Jonathan; McRae, Glenn
  70. The Bonacich Shapley centrality By Nizar Allouch; A. Meca; K. Polotskaya
  71. Conspicuous Consumption: Vehicle Purchases by Non-Prime Consumers By Wenhua Di; Yichen Su
  72. Politics of Harmony, Social Capital and Tolerant Cities By Elyta Elyta
  73. The Effect of Crises on Fiscal and Political Recentralization: Large-Panel Evidence By Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza; Pablo Evia Salas; Jorge Martinez-Vazquez
  74. Evaluating the Effects of the Home Affordable Modification Program By Richard Cóndor
  75. Horizon-K Farsightedness in Criminal Networks By Herings, Jean-Jacques; Mauleon, Ana; Vannetelbosch, Vincent
  76. The effect of COVID-19 stimulus payments on sales of local small businesses: Quasi-experimental evidence from Korea By Choi, Hoon
  77. An incremental approach to service co-production: unfolding the co-evolution of the built environment and water and sanitation infrastructures By Federica Natalia Rosati; Luisa Moretto; Jacques Teller
  78. Convergence of Economic Growth across Central Provinces and Cities in Vietnam By Ly Dai Hung
  79. The Dynastic Benefits of Early Childhood Education By Jorge Luis Garcia; Frederik Bennhoff; Duncan Ermini Leaf; James J. Heckman
  80. Extending alcohol retailers' opening hours: Evidence from Sweden By Daniel Avdic; Stephanie von Hinke
  81. Bye, bye, Hotel Mama, bye, bye good grades? Living in a student room and exam results in tertiary education By Simon Amez; Stijn Baert
  82. The school year 2020-2021 in Denmark during the pandemic By ENEMARK LUNDTOFTE Thomas
  83. Promotion ban and heterogeneity in retail prices during the Great Lockdown By Hindriks, Jean; Madio, Leonardo; Serse, Valerio

  1. By: Isil Erol (University of Reading); Umut Unal (University of Marburg)
    Abstract: This paper examines the causal impact of internal migration on house price changes in Queensland – Australia’s new capital of interstate migration. We study annual housing price growth across 82 Statistical Areas Level 3 (SA3) regions between 2014 and 2019 by employing a spatial correlation approach. We also estimate the impact of the increasing share of migrants from New South Wales on the local housing markets in Queensland. The main findings are summarised as follows: (1) an annual increase in the inflow of migrants equal to 1% of a region's initial population leads to a 0.6%–0.7% annual increase in Queensland’s house prices across different empirical specifications; (2) internal migration inflow increases house prices in Greater Brisbane metropolitan area, whereas internal migration has a negative impact on housing price changes in the Rest of State regions; (3) migrants tend to move towards SA3 regions where house prices grow more slowly conditional on the local area controls and the time fixed effects; (4) the increasing share of migration from New South Wales does not have a significant effect on house price growth in Queensland. Our findings have important policy implications related to sustainable local economic development since sustainable development is, for the most part, achieved by attracting newcomers to the cities/towns and completed through the involvement of migrants in local housing and labour markets.
    Keywords: Housing prices; Internal Migration; Shift-share instrument; Australia; Queensland
    JEL: R12 R23 R31
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Leonardo J. Basso; Matías Navarro; Hugo Silva
    Abstract: Public transport is central to commuting in most cities around the world. This paper studies the role of public transportation in shaping the urban structure. The main contribution of the paper is to propose a tractable model as a tool to study urban regulations and transport policies in the long-run. Using the classic monocentric city framework, we model public transport as a mode that can only be accessed by walking to a limited set of stops. By incorporating a discrete transport mode choice and income heterogeneity, the model remains simple yet can reproduce non-monotonous urban gradients observed in cities with public transport, and well-observed spatial patterns of sorting by income and use of public transport. For example, it can reproduce an inverted U-shape of transit usage along the city.
    Date: 2020
  3. By: Arntz, Melanie; Brüll, Eduard; Lipowski, Cäcilia
    Abstract: City-level policies often aim at attracting skilled workers by improving urban amenities. However, due to endogeneity problems, studies relying on revealed preferences have difficulties in providing evidence for the basic premise that skilled workers place a higher value on urban amenities than less skilled individuals. Therefore, we use a stated- preference experiment to directly examine preferences for urban amenities. In a custom survey, we elicit hypothetical job choices between two cities that differ in wages and a set of urban amenities. We find that amenities are important determinants of city choice, with respondents willing to forgo a significant fraction of their wage to live in a city with better amenities. Most strikingly, we do not find any preference heterogeneity between workers differing by education or creative class membership. Instead, we uncover large heterogeneities mainly along family-related mobility constraints and unobserved dimensions. Our results imply that there is not much scope for amenity-oriented policies to improve the local skill mix. Rather, the urban skill bias reflects the incapability of less skilled individuals to afford living in and moving to their preferred places, resulting in significant welfare losses.
    Keywords: Urban amenities,regional policy,internal migration,skill selective migration
    JEL: R12 R22 R58
    Date: 2021
  4. By: MORI Tomoya
    Abstract: This paper reviews the research outputs of my recent RIETI projects on the size and spatial patterns of cities and discusses their policy implications. It is a well-known fact that city size distribution follows a power law in many countries. We found that this regularity holds not only at the country level, but also in regions within a country. Specifically, the sizes and spatial patterns of cities exhibit the recursive "central place pattern" in which a large city has many surrounding small cities, from which a spatial fractal structure of cities results. Each part of the fractal consists of cities that exhibit the central place pattern with a city-size distribution following a common power law. Such regularity has important policy implications, as the size of a city is known to correlate with various socio-economic indices such as industrial diversity, household income, and education levels of workers. City growth is strictly subject to this regularity since the size and spatial distributions of cities remain essentially the same. The regional policies must take this persistent regularity as a de facto constraint.
    Date: 2021–06
  5. By: Elisa Guglielminetti (Bank of Italy); Michele Loberto (Bank of Italy); Giordano Zevi (Bank of Italy); Roberta Zizza (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: We quantify the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on housing demand of Italian households by exploiting new information on their search activity on the market. The data comes from two unique datasets: the Italian Housing Market Survey, conducted quarterly on a large sample of real estate agents, and the universe of weekly housing sales advertisements taken from, a popular online portal for real estate services in Italy. The latter includes high-frequency and house-specific measures of online interest of potential home buyers. The pandemic induced a large increase in demand for houses located in areas with lower population density, mainly driven by a significant shift in preferences towards larger, single-family housing units, endowed with outdoor spaces. Fear of contagion, lockdown measures and the rise of remote working arrangements all likely shaped the evolution of housing demand, with potential long-lasting consequences on the housing market.
    Keywords: Covid-19, housing market, real estate, online housing advertisements, survey data, working from home
    JEL: I18 O18 R21 R31
    Date: 2021–06
  6. By: Kristopher S. Gerardi; Lauren Lambie-Hanson; Paul S. Willen
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated racial disparities in U.S. mortgage markets. Black, Hispanic, and Asian borrowers were significantly more likely than white borrowers to miss payments due to financial distress, and significantly less likely to refinance to take advantage of the large decline in interest rates spurred by the Federal Reserve’s large-scale mortgage-backed security (MBS) purchase program. The wide-scale forbearance program, introduced by the 2020 Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, provided approximately equal payment relief to all distressed borrowers, as forbearance rates conditional on nonpayment status were roughly equal across racial/ethnic groups. However, Black and Hispanic borrowers were significantly less likely to exit forbearance and resume making payments relative to their Asian and white counterparts. Persistent differences in the ability to catch up on missed payments could worsen the already large disparity in home ownership rates across racial and ethnic groups. While the pandemic caused widespread distress in mortgage markets, strong house price appreciation in recent years, particularly in 2020, means that foreclosure risk is lower for past-due borrowers now as compared with the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis and Great Recession. Furthermore, borrowers who have missed payments have significantly higher credit scores now than those who were distressed in the 2007–2010 period, largely due to the widespread availability of forbearance for federally backed mortgages.
    Keywords: mortgage refinancing; mortgage repayment; home equity; racial inequality; COVID-19
    JEL: E52 G21 G51 J15
    Date: 2021–06–22
  7. By: Gennaro Catapano (Bank of Italy); Francesco Franceschi (Bank of Italy); Valentina Michelangeli (Bank of Italy); Michele Loberto (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: In this paper, we extend and calibrate with Italian data the Agent-based model of the real estate sector described in Baptista et al., 2016. We design a novel calibration methodology that is built on a multivariate moment-based measure and a set of three search algorithms: a low discrepancy series, a machine learning surrogate and a genetic algorithm. The calibrated and validated model is then used to evaluate the effects of three hypothetical borrower-based macroprudential policies: an 80 per cent loan-to-value cap, a 30 per cent cap on the loan-service-to-income ratio and a combination of both policies. We find that, within our framework, these policy interventions tend to slow down the credit cycle and reduce the probability of defaults on mortgages. However, with respect to the Italian housing market, we only find very small effects over a five-year horizon on both property prices and mortgage defaults. This latter result is consistent with the view that the Italian household sector is financially sound. Finally, we find that restrictive policies lead to a shift in demand toward lower quality dwellings.
    Keywords: agent based model, housing market, macroprudential policy
    JEL: D1 D31 E58 R2 R21 R31
    Date: 2021–06
  8. By: Thompson, Paul N. (Oregon State University); Ward, Jason (RAND Corporation)
    Abstract: Previous evidence has shown disparate achievement impacts of the four-day school week across state contexts. This paper examines the impacts of the four-day school week on achievement and achievement gaps across 12 states to contextualize these four-day school week impacts nationally. We estimate these effects using a difference-in-differences design with data from the Stanford Educational Data Archive and a proprietary longitudinal national four-day school week database of four-day school week use from 2009-2018. We find negative impacts for both math and ELA achievement when examining four-day school weeks nationally, but these aggregate effects appear to be masking important heterogeneity due to differences in overall time in school across states and districts. When stratifying the treatment sample into districts with low, middle, and high time in school, we find statistically significant negative impacts on math achievement for four-day school districts with low time in school, but no statistically significant impacts for four-day districts with middle or high time in school. Our findings suggest that maintaining time in school should be a key consideration for school districts contemplating fourday school week adoption.
    Keywords: four-day school week, time in school, achievement
    JEL: I21
    Date: 2021–06
  9. By: Nourah Al Hosain; Alma Alhussaini (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: The King Abdulaziz Project for Public Transport in Riyadh city is one of the world’s largest urban transit systems being developed. The project aims to meet the demands of the city’s growing urban population while reducing traffic congestion, heavy private car dependence and air pollution. The performance of any public transport system largely depends on its accessibility. Therefore, this study evaluates the populations’ access to Riyadh’s public transport stations using network analysis tools based on geographic information systems.
    Keywords: Transist oriented development
    Date: 2021–06–24
  10. By: Howard, Greg (University of Illinois); Weinstein, Russell (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); Yang, Yuhao (University of Illinois)
    Abstract: We use a novel identification strategy to investigate whether regional universities make their local economies more resilient to adverse economic shocks. Our strategy is based on state governments assigning normal schools (to train teachers) and insane asylums to counties between 1830 and 1930. Normal schools later became much larger regional universities while asylum properties mostly continue as small state-owned psychiatric health facilities. Because site selection criteria were similar for these two types of institutions, comparing counties assigned a normal school versus an insane asylum identifies the effect of a regional university. We find that having a regional university roughly offset the negative effects of exposure to manufacturing declines, and we attribute a significant share of this resilience to the resilience of regional public university spending.
    Keywords: manufacturing decline, universities and economic growth, resilience
    JEL: R10 I23 J20
    Date: 2021–05
  11. By: Miles Davison; Andrew Penner; Emily Penner; Nikolas Pharris-Ciurej; Sonya R. Porter; Evan Rose; Yotam Shem-Tov; Paul Yoo
    Abstract: Despite interest in the role of school discipline in the creation of racial inequality, previous research has been unable to identify how students who receive suspensions in school differ from unsuspended classmates on key young adult outcomes. We utilize novel data to document the links between high school discipline and important young adult outcomes related to criminal justice contact, social safety net program participation, post-secondary education, and the labor market. We show that the link between school discipline and young adult outcomes tends to be stronger for Black students than for White students, and that inequality in exposure to school discipline accounts for approximately 30 percent of the Black-White disparities in young adult criminal justice outcomes and SNAP receipt.
    Date: 2021–06
  12. By: Adam Crowe (School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Curtin Business School); Alan S Duncan (Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin University); Amity James (School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Curtin Business School); Steven Rowley (School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Curtin Business School)
    Abstract: Housing Affordability in WA: A tale of two tenures’ is the fourth Housing Affordability report from the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), and the fifteenth in the BCEC Focus on WA series. This latest report offers new insights into housing affordability in Western Australia, and on peoples’ housing experiences in Perth and across regional WA. The report includes a special analysis of housing market activity and housing affordability over the course of the pandemic The report presents new data to understand housing affordability in Western Australia, how it has changed over time and across our suburbs, how it impacts a household’s ability to meet every day expenditure and the impact COVID-19 has had on our housing preferences. This report includes important new findings from the fourth BCEC Housing Affordability Survey, collecting data from more than 4,000 households in April 2021 across Western Australia, New South Wales and Queensland. One of the strongest take-homes from the 2021 BCEC Housing Affordability Survey is that housing affordability has improved in Western Australia, but this improvement hasn’t been evenly spread. A housing affordability divide between tenures exists between those who own their home or are in the process of buying one, and those who are renting. In fact owner-occupiers are more comfortable now than they have been in some time, whereas those in the private rental market are struggling to make ends meet. This divide is likely to increase in the coming months as the full impacts of the lifting of the rental moratorium are realised and pressure continues on an already tight rental market. If rents were to increase by 10 per cent this would have a major impact on the financial wellbeing of over 100,000 renters in WA, disproportionately affecting renters in receipt of rent assistance. The report highlights key priorities for governments, including the need to increase investment in social housing to deliver 2,000 dwellings per annum; to provide greater financial assistance for low income private renters; and to progress a number of reforms around taxation and stamp duty.
    Keywords: Western Australia, WA economy, housing pathways, housing affordability, income and wealth, financial disadvantage, housing stress
    JEL: O18 R21 R31 R38
    Date: 2021–06
  13. By: Wilhelmsson, Mats (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: The Swedish rental housing market is characterised by, among other things, a form of rent control in which rents remain lower than market rate. This means that distribution of rental apartments is not based on the tenants' willingness to pay for a specific apartment. Instead, in most cases, distribution is based on a person's position in the housing agency queue. In Stockholm, many public and private housing rental contracts are set up via a common queue administered by the municipal housing agency. Individuals with much time in the queue can access a more extensive selection of rental apartments. The purpose of the following study is to estimate the demand for rent-regulated apartments. We do so by investigating the relationship between queue time and apartment attributes. A so-called hedonic waiting time equation will be estimated. The implicit prices of the rental apartment will be related to the tenant's income, and income elasticity will be estimated in a second step. The results indicate a significant willingness to pay for rent-regulated apartments, and that the demand for rental apartments can partly be explained by regulated rents, and partly by tenants' income.
    Keywords: Rental housing market; Queuing time; Waiting list; Excess demand; Controlled rents
    JEL: R21 R23 R31
    Date: 2021–07–01
  14. By: Cheshire, Paul; Kaimakamis, Katerina
    Abstract: British planning is among the most restrictive in the world and has been restrictive for longer than elsewhere. Restrictive regulation substantially increases the costs of office space and, especially in London, increases the house prices. Partly in response to the crisis in housing supply an automatic right to convert offices to residential use was introduced in 2013. Some major office locations in central London and Manchester were excluded from this relaxation. We exploit the resulting boundary discontinuities to estimate the impact on prices of the new right to convert offices to housing. Using a panel data set of some 2,000 office transactions between 2009 and 2016, we find a significant increase in the price of offices eligible for this automatic conversion: our central estimate is a premium of 50%. This result demonstrates that London's restrictions on the supply of housing were substantially more severe than those on offices–already estimated to have been tighter than anywhere else in Europe. This article contributes to the small literature analyzing the restrictive effect of regulation on offices and is, as far as we are aware, the first analyzing regulatory restriction on offices relative to housing.
    Keywords: housing supply; restrictive regulation; office markets; ES/J021342/1; Wiley deal
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2021
  15. By: Stephan Whitaker
    Abstract: This data brief presents estimates of the number of people who have already migrated from the high-cost, large population centers to lower-cost and less-populated regions during the pandemic. It also presents the potential impacts on lower-cost regions that might receive more remote workers.2 Migration away from high-cost, large metro areas did spike during the pandemic. Even if the percentage of remote workers following these recent migration patterns is small, the number of these workers may be large enough to provide other regions the opportunity to substantially grow their workforces.
    Keywords: remote work; urban migration
    Date: 2021–03–25
  16. By: Rostislav Staněk (Faculty of Economics and Administration, Masaryk University, Lipová 41a, 602 00 Brno, Czech Republic); Ondřej Krčál (Faculty of Economics and Administration, Masaryk University, Lipová 41a, 602 00 Brno, Czech Republic); Štěpán Mikula (Faculty of Economics and Administration, Masaryk University, Lipová 41a, 602 00 Brno, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: Theoretical models of social capital (David, Janiak, and Wasmer 2010; Bräuninger and Tolciu 2011) predict that communities may find themselves in one of two equilibria: one with a high level of local social capital and low migration or one with a low level of local social capital and high migration. There is empirical literature suggesting that immigrants who join communities high in social capital are more likely to invest in local social capital and that the whole community will then end up in the equilibrium with high local social capital and low migration. However, this literature suffers from the selection of immigrants, which makes the identification challenging. In order to test the causal influence of the initial level of local social capital, we take the setup used in the theoretical models into the laboratory. We treat some communities by increasing the initial level of social capital without affecting the equilibrium outcomes. We find that while most communities end up in one of the two equilibria predicted by the theoretical models, the treated communities are more likely to converge to the equilibrium with a high level of local social capital and low migration.
    Keywords: social capital, integration, equilibrium selection, laboratory experiment
    JEL: C92 J15
    Date: 2021–06
  17. By: Alberto Bisin; Andrea Moro
    Abstract: We introduce a model of the diffusion of an epidemic with demographically heterogeneous agents interacting socially on a spatially structured network. Contagion-risk averse agents respond behaviorally to the diffusion of the infections by limiting their social interactions. Firms also respond by allowing employees to work remotely, depending on their productivity. The spatial structure induces local herd immunities along sociodemographic dimensions, which significantly affect the dynamics of infections. We study several non-pharmaceutical interventions; e.g., i) lockdown rules, which set thresholds on the spread of the infection for the closing and reopening of economic activities; and ii) selective lockdowns, which restrict social interactions by location (in the network) and by the demographic characteristics of the agents. Substantiating a “Lucas critique” argument, we assess the cost of naive discretionary policies ignoring agents and firms’ behavioral responses.
    JEL: I18 R10
    Date: 2021–06
  18. By: Tani, Massimiliano (University of New South Wales); Zhu, Yu (University of Dundee); Xu, Lei (National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR))
    Abstract: Using the 2013 China Education Panel Survey (CEPS), we study the impact of a 2008 inclusive education policy, through which the central government mandated urban public schools to exempt migrant children from tuition and temporary schooling fees. Whereas the non-disclosure rule regarding geographical location of CEPS sampling units precludes the control of locational characteristics, we identify the causal effect of the policy through a novel identification strategy, which relies on the types of primary sampling units. Specifically, we only use non-migrant rural hukou children living in counties in the nationally representative sample as the control group (the never-takers), while, in the treatment group, we only include migrant children who are currently living in China's top 120 migrant-receiving counties or city districts, and Shanghai. We also distinguish migrant children who started urban schooling before and after 2008 as separate treatment groups of always-takers and compliers, respectively. Using the Inverse Probability Weighted Regression Adjustment (IPWRA) approach, we find that the average treatment effect of the policy on migrant children is around 0.18 SD, as measured by a standardised cognitive test score – a large effect. We also present complementary evidence that the average treatment effect tends to be larger for municipalities and provincial capitals, consistently with the notion that the (potential) value-added of attending urban schools is higher the larger the initial gap with rural schools.
    Keywords: school access reform, migrant children, discrimination, inclusive education
    JEL: I21 I24 I25 I28 J15
    Date: 2021–06
  19. By: Catherine Gagnon; Jason Gagnon
    Abstract: The world is increasingly facing a technologically changing employment landscape and such changes are directly affecting the future demand for skills. For regional economies built on labour migration, the impending changes will affect migrants and their families, their countries of origin and the recruitment systems they are attached to – and ultimately disrupt the development benefits of migration. This paper investigates how the future of the employment landscape will affect migration within the Abu Dhabi Dialogue, a regional consultative process for migration in Asia. It investigates the impending changes in the demand for skills in countries of destination, how such changes will affect migration processes and whether countries of origin are ready for the changes. It provides recommendations on how regional consultative processes can foster dialogue between key actors from both countries of origin and destination to better navigate future changes and ensure a smooth transition.
    Keywords: employment, future of work, international migration, labour migration, regional co-operation, skills
    JEL: F22 O15 J24 J61 F66
    Date: 2021–07–05
  20. By: Jason Deegan; Tom Broekel; Rune Dahl Fitjar
    Abstract: This paper examines which economic domains regional policy-makers aim to develop in regional innovation strategies, focusing in particular on the complexity of those economic domains and their relatedness to other economic domains in the region. We build on the economic geography literature that advises policy-makers to target related and complex economic domains (e.g. Balland et al. (2018a), and assess the extent to which regions actually do this. The paper draws on data from the smart specialisation strategies of 128 NUTS-2 regions across Europe. While regions are more likely to select complex economic domains related to their current economic domain portfolio, complexity and relatedness figure independently, rather than in combination, in choosing priorities. We also find that regions in the same country tend to select the same priorities, contrary to the idea of a division of labour across regions that smart specialisation implies. Overall, these findings suggest that smart specialisation may be considerably less place-based in practice than it is in theory. There is a need to develop better tools to inform regions’ priority choices, given the importance of priority selection in smart specialisation strategies and regional innovation policy more broadly.
    Keywords: Smart Specialisation, Regional Policy, Complexity, Relatedness, Innovation Policy, European Cohesion Policy
    JEL: O25 O38 R11
    Date: 2021–06
  21. By: Emanuela Sirtori (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies); Louis Colnot (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies)
    Abstract: Megatrends are long-term, ubiquitous, global and robust transformations influencing the developments of business, environment, economy, society, cultures and citizens' lives on a local and global scale. There is an important grey literature focusing on these megatrends and their impacts. However, this analysis is often not territorialized, despite the gradient of consequences that megatrends might have at the regional level. This working paper proposes a methodological approach combining qualitative insights (including foresight scenarios) and quantitative data to regionalize the impacts of a series of megatrends and types of impacts. This approach is then applied to a sample of megatrends and types of impacts at the EU level. Findings suggest that the megatrends' impacts are not place-neutral in the EU context and that patterns of the most/least affected regions depend on the individual megatrend. Indeed, different patterns can be observed (e.g., North/South, East/West, urban/non-urban, quasi-homogeneous impacts), often in opposite directions for different megatrends. Moreover, the regional level of development cannot be used as a reliable predictor of the impacts, as the correlation may be positive, negative or even inexistent depending on the megatrend.
    Keywords: megatrends, EU regions, foresight analysis, impact assessment, technological change, sustainable development, trans-portation, cities
    JEL: O18 R11 R58
    Date: 2020–01–01
  22. By: Agnese Carella (Bank of Italy); Valentina Michelangeli (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: The role, informative or persuasive, of brand names in driving purchasing decisions is very much under debate. We exploit the rebranding of a mortgage lender to analyse households’ choice behaviour in response to brand popularity. Loan-level data on new mortgages suggest that (1) brand awareness reduces the equilibrium price of residential mortgage contracts and (2) the reduction mainly reflects consumers’ selection of cheaper products due to better information. Our calibrated model implies an overall gain equal to 6 per cent of the initial loan amount and a roughly 10 percentage point increase in the share of households that shift to cheaper lenders.
    Keywords: brand, mortgages, household finance
    JEL: D12 D15 D83 G21 G51
    Date: 2021–06
  23. By: Ryusaku Matsuo (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University)
    Date: 2021–06
  24. By: Loreto Cox; Sylvia Eyzaguirre; Francisco Gallego; Maximiliano García
    Abstract: This paper explores the role of providing information on the educational outcomes of municipal schools to voters on their electoral behavior in elections in which the incumbent mayor is running for reelection in Chile. We designed and implemented a randomized experiment whereby we sent 128,033 letters to voters with: (i) information on past test scores for local public schools (levels and changes), and (ii) different yardsticks, specifically the average and maximum test scores for comparable municipalities. We find that providing information of the relative performance affects turnout, which translates almost one-to-one into votes for the incumbent mayor, and produces spillovers on the election of local councilors. Results are concentrated in polling stations where most voters had already participated in previous elections. They are especially strong when educational results are bad and in stations that had stronger support for the incumbent mayor in the previous election, reducing turnout and thus votes for the incumbent.
    Date: 2020
  25. By: Spoerri, Martina; El Benni, Nadja; Mack, Gabriele; Finger, Robert
    Abstract: The intensity of land use is of vital importance from an agricultural policy perspective, because it determines food production, income opportunities and environmental impacts arising from agriculture. And: space matters, as the provision of ecosystem services and disservices is highly spatially dependent. For example, regional clusters of intensive land use can be a threat to unique local landscapes and ecosystems. Farmers’ decision-making regarding land use intensity and resulting spatial patterns are not well understood. This paper aims to uncover driving forces behind land use intensity strategies, especially exploiting spatial clustering and difference across space and time. We use spatially explicit census data on 2018 for Swiss agriculture and focus on extensification decisions in grassland production. This dataset allows us to account for neighbourhood effects, i.e. spillovers across farms. We use a set of variables controlling for common, measurable conditions, as well as an instrument that controls for regional habits and cultural backgrounds. Within this setup, we identify a significant neighbourhood effect among farmers. Our findings highlight the need for a socio-cultural dimension in agricultural policymaking.
    Keywords: Land Economics/Use, Agricultural and Food Policy
    Date: 2021–03
  26. By: Aleksandra Mikhaylova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Roman Zvyagintsev (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Ìarina Pinskaya (MGIMO University); Lorin Anderson (University of South Carolina)
    Abstract: Our research is dedicated to identifying what allows schools operating in difficult social conditions to show good academic results. We answer this question through the conjugation of two theoretical frameworks: academic resilience and school effectiveness. We analyze several models of school effectiveness and compare resilient and struggling schools through them. The study uses a quantitative and qualitative mixed-methods design. Our main arguments are based on an analysis of interviews conducted with students, parents, teachers, and principals in different schools—3 resilient and 3 struggling. We conclude that the schools differ in the strategies they implement; the main problem facing struggling schools is not the lack of effective elements, but the presence of negative ones; in further studies of school effectiveness, it would be worth using an integrative model that combines both poles
    Keywords: school effectiveness, academic resilience, mixed-methods design, resilient school.
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2021
  27. By: Ghafelebashi, Ali; Razaviyayn, Meisam; Dessouky, Maged
    Abstract: Rapid population growth and development in cities across the globe have fueled an inescapable urban burden: traffic congestion. Congestion causes huge economic losses and increased vehicle emissions, which contribute to poor air quality. Over the past several decades traffic engineers have tried various strategies to reduce congestion, ranging from increasing roadway capacity to transportation demand management programs. An alternative travel demand management approach that has garnered less attention is the use of positive incentive programs— rewarding desirable behavior rather than penalizing undesirable behavior—to reduce congestion. Researchers at the University of Southern California developed a real-time, distributed algorithm for offering personalized incentives to individual drivers to make socially optimal routing decisions. The methodology relies on online and historical traffic data as well as individual preferences and routing options from drivers’ origins and destinations to estimate both the traffic condition and the drivers’ responses to the provided incentives. This policy brief summarizes the findings from that research and provides policy implications. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Algorithms, Congestion management systems, Incentives, Optimization, Pollutants, Routes and routing, Smartphones, Traffic congestio
    Date: 2021–07–01
  28. By: MONOSTORI Judit
    Abstract: This report describes the experiences of Hungarian public education in the 2020/21 academic year, during the COVID-19 epidemic. We focus primarily on describing the teaching practices, the teaching methods used that arose during the school closures period. In secondary schools, this meant two-thirds of the school year, while in primary schools it meant a much shorter period. The report is based on a qulitative study of teachers, school principals, students, parents and a representative of a trade union of teachers and a central organization dealing with education policy (n=22). The main finding of the study is that remote education has highlighted a number of problems that the Hungarian education system has been struggling with for a long time. At the same time, some schools and teachers experienced the situation as a challenge resulting in a number of good teacher practices. In schools, on the other hand, where the proportion of disadvantaged students was high, the problems worsened despite teacher effort. The study also deals with the question of what lessons this period provided for Hungarian public education.
    Keywords: Covid-19 education, primary education, secondary education, special education, inclusive education, digital education, hybrid education
    Date: 2021–06
  29. By: Cerqua, Augusto; Zampollo, Federico
    Abstract: We investigate the influence of anti-immigrant parties on foreigners' location choices in Italy. Considering municipal elections from 2000 to 2018, we create a database that includes a scientific-based classification on the anti-/pro-immigration axis of all Italian political parties based on experts' opinions. Via the adoption of a regression discontinuity design, we find that the election of a mayor supported by an anti-immigrant coalition significantly affect immigrants' location choices only when considering the most recent years. This finding does not appear to be driven by the enactment of policies against immigrants but by an 'inhospitality effect', which got stronger over time due to the exacerbation of political propaganda at the national and local level.
    Keywords: immigration,political parties,regression discontinuity design
    JEL: D72 J61 C13
    Date: 2021
  30. By: Rodríguez‐pose, Andrés; Griffiths, Jamie
    Abstract: Intermediate cities have experienced economic dynamism in recent years, but, with the focus firmly on large metropoles and sprawling megacities, the development potential of intermediate cities has stayed out of the limelight. This paper upholds the relevance and potential of intermediate cities, arguing that they can play as important a role – if not a more important one – than the large metropoles that, until now, have been the focus of attention. Intermediate cities hold considerable advantages, in particular for poverty reduction and as more efficient ecosystems to live and work. Untapping the potential of intermediate cities requires, however, more territorially balanced, place-sensitive strategies.
    Keywords: development strategies; economic development; intermediate cities; metropoles; Wiley deal
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2021–06–01
  31. By: Santiago Tobón Zapata; Maria Antonia Escobar Bernal; Martin Vanegas Arias
    JEL: D04 H41 J24 K14 K42
    Date: 2021–06–22
  32. By: Dennis Guignet; Christoph Nolte
    Abstract: The Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) is a cornerstone of environmental policy in the United States (US). It regulates the generation, use, transportation, and eventual disposal of hazardous chemicals. Focusing on the 2,389 treatment, storage, and disposal facilities (TSDFs) in the contiguous US, we frame a difference-in-differences and triple differences quasi-experiment that exploits the temporal and spatial variation in contamination and cleanup events. Hedonic property value regressions are estimated using a sample of over 9.6 million single-family home transactions from 2000-2018. The discovery of contamination and subsequent investigation is associated with up to a 5% depreciation in the value of homes within 750 meters of a TSDF, but the evidence is mixed. In contrast, we find robust, causal evidence that the completion of cleanup leads to an average 6-7% increase in the value of homes within 750 meters. This implies that a total increase in housing stock value of $323 million can be attributed to the 195 TSDFs that have been remediated since the inception of the RCRA cleanup program. The completion of cleanup at a TSDF is estimated to yield an average lower bound, ex post benefit of about $8,400 per household. Key Words:
    Date: 2021
  33. By: Nyström, Kristina (The Ratio Institute)
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to study how municipalities work at the regional level with issues concerning skills shortages and recruitment. What information channels are used to obtain information about these shortcomings? How and with whom do the municipalities collaborate? This study provides a mapping of how collaboration between employers, regional policymakers, and other institutions works with regional recruitment. As such, this study provides important information and possible inspiration. The empirical findings obtained based on a survey targeted to the business sections in Swedish municipalities suggest that companies in rural regions turn to municipalities to a greater extent than companies in non-rural municipalities in regard to skills shortages and recruitment. In addition, it is perceived that there is a higher degree of cooperation between businesses and local politicians in regard to recruitment in rural municipalities compared to other municipalities. Even cooperation to develop competence at the regional level is thought to take place to a greater extent in rural municipalities than in non-rural municipalities.
    Keywords: Recruitment; regional development; regional policy
    JEL: R23 R58
    Date: 2021–06–24
  34. By: Jose Luis Hervas-Oliver; Mario Davide Parrilli; Andres Rodriguez-Pose; Francisca Sempere-Ripoll
    Abstract: European Union (EU) innovation policies have for long remained mostly research driven. The fundamental goal has been to achieve a rate of R&D investment of 3% of GDP. Small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) innovation, however, relies on a variety of internal sources —both R&D and non-R&D based— and external drivers, such as collaboration with other firms and research centres, and is profoundly influence by location and context. Given this multiplicity of innovation activities, this study argues that innovation policies fundamentally based on a place-blind increase of R&D investment may not deliver the best outcomes in regions where the capacity of SMEs is to benefit from R&D is limited. We posit that collaboration and regional specificities can play a greater role in determining SME innovation, beyond just R&D activities. Using data from the Regional Innovation Scoreboard (RIS), covering 220 regions across 22 European countries, we find that regions in Europe differ significantly in terms of SME innovation depending on their location. SMEs in more innovative regions benefit to a far greater extent from a combination of internal R&D, external collaboration of all sorts, and non-R&D inputs. SMEs in less innovative regions rely fundamentally on external sources and, particularly, on collaboration with other firms. Greater investment in public R&D does not always lead to improvements in regional SME innovation, regardless of context. Collaboration is a central innovation activity that can complement R&D, showing an even stronger effect on SME innovation than R&D. Hence, a more collaboration-based and place-sensitive policy is required to maximise SME innovation across the variety of European regional contexts.
    Keywords: regional innovation; SMEs; R&D; place-based; collaboration; EU regions
    JEL: O31 O32 L11
    Date: 2021–06
  35. By: Cerqua, Augusto; Letta, Marco
    Abstract: This paper assesses the impact of the first wave of the pandemic on the local economies of one of the hardest-hit countries, Italy. We combine quarterly local labor market data with the new machine learning control method for counterfactual building. Our results document that the economic effects of the COVID-19 shock are dramatically unbalanced across the Italian territory and spatially uncorrelated with the epidemiological pattern of the first wave. The heterogeneity of employment losses is associated with exposure to social aggregation risks and pre-existing labor market fragilities. Finally, we quantify the protective role played by the labor market interventions implemented by the government and show that, while effective, they disproportionately benefitted the most developed Italian regions. Such diverging trajectories and unequal policy effects call for a place-based policy approach that promptly addresses the uneven economic geography of the current crisis.
    Keywords: impact evaluation,counterfactual approach,machine learning,local labor markets,COVID-19,Italy
    JEL: C53 D22 E24 R12
    Date: 2021
  36. By: Coen, Jamie (London School of Economics); Kashyap, Anil (University of Chicago); Rostom, May (Bank of England)
    Abstract: We characterise the large number of mortgage offers for which people qualify. Almost no one picks the cheapest option, nonetheless the one selected is not usually much more expensive. A few borrowers make very expensive choices. These big mistakes are most common when the menu they face has many expensive options, and are most likely for high loan to value and loan to income borrowers. Young people and first-time buyers are more mistake-prone. The dispersion in the mortgage menu is consistent with banks attempting to price discriminate for some borrowers who might pick poorly while competing for others who might shop more effectively.
    Keywords: Price discrimination; consumer choice; mortgages
    JEL: D12 G21 G51 G53
    Date: 2021–06–25
  37. By: Philipp Otto; Wolfgang Schmid
    Abstract: In time-series analyses, particularly for finance, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models are widely applied statistical tools for modelling volatility clusters (i.e., periods of increased or decreased risk). In contrast, it has not been considered to be of critical importance until now to model spatial dependence in the conditional second moments. Only a few models have been proposed for modelling local clusters of increased risks. In this paper, we introduce a novel spatial GARCH process in a unified spatial and spatiotemporal GARCH framework, which also covers all previously proposed spatial ARCH models, exponential spatial GARCH, and time-series GARCH models. In contrast to previous spatiotemporal and time series models, this spatial GARCH allows for instantaneous spill-overs across all spatial units. For this common modelling framework, estimators are derived based on a non-linear least-squares approach. Eventually, the use of the model is demonstrated by a Monte Carlo simulation study and by an empirical example that focuses on real estate prices from 1995 to 2014 across the ZIP-Code areas of Berlin. A spatial autoregressive model is applied to the data to illustrate how locally varying model uncertainties (e.g., due to latent regressors) can be captured by the spatial GARCH-type models.
    Date: 2021–06
  38. By: Wang, Jingxi; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Deng, Guoying
    Abstract: Reducing urban-rural gaps in child health and nutrition is one of the most difficult challenges faced by many countries. This paper evaluates the impact of the Nutrition Improvement Program (NIP), a large-scale school meal program in rural China, on the health and nutritional status of compulsory education students aged 6-16. We use data from multiple rounds of the China Health and Nutrition Survey between 2004-2015 and implement a quasi-experimental approach exploiting cross-county variations in program implementation. We find that NIP participation is, on average, associated with a higher height-for-age z-score in the order of 0.22-0.42 standard deviations. The impacts are larger among students in a better health condition but small or not significant among the most disadvantaged. We do not observe heterogeneous effects across several individual and household characteristics. We also do not find significant effects on Body Mass Index-for-age and weight-for-age z scores. The results suggest that NIP partially improved students’ health over the first years of implementation, but more support is needed to achieve broader impacts that effectively reach all vulnerable students. Several robustness checks support our findings.
    Keywords: CHINA; EAST ASIA; ASIA; health; school feeding; children; child nutrition; nutrition; rural areas; school meals; school meal program; student health; program evaluation
    Date: 2021
  39. By: Martha Bailey (University of Michigan, National Bureau of Economic Research); Shuqiao Sun; Brenden Timpe (University of Nebraska)
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the long-run effects of Head Start using large-scale, restricted 2000-2018 Census-ACS data linked to the SSA’s Numident file, which contains exact date and county of birth. Using the county rollout of Head Start between 1965 and 1980 and age-eligibility cutoffs for school entry, we find that Head Start generated large increases in adult human capital and economic self-sufficiency, including a 0.65-year increase in schooling, a 2.7-percent increase in high-school completion, an 8.5-percent increase in college enrollment, and a 39-percent increase in college completion. These estimates imply sizable, long-term returns to public investments in large-scale preschool programs.
    Keywords: Census, SSA, schooling completion, public investment
    JEL: I20 J24 J60
    Date: 2021–06
  40. By: Valentina DI IASIO; Ernest MIGUELEZ
    Abstract: This study investigates whether high-skilled immigration in a sample of OECD countries fosters technological diversification in the migrants' countries of origin. We focus on migrant inventors and study their role as vectors of knowledge remittances. Further, we particularly analyze whether migrants spark related or unrelated diversification back home. To account for the uneven distribution of knowledge and immigrants within the host countries, we break down the analysis at the metropolitan area level. Our results suggest that inventors' diasporas have a positive effect on the home countries' technological diversification, particularly for developing countries and technologies with less related activities around - thus fostering unrelated diversification.
    Keywords: high-skilled migrants, diversification, relatedness, unrelatedness, technological development
    JEL: O31 O33 F22
    Date: 2021
  41. By: Jan Feld; Ulf Zölitz
    Abstract: This paper investigates how exposure to higher-achieving male and female peers in university affects students’ major choices and labor market outcomes. For identification of causal effects, we exploit the random assignment of students to university sections in first-year compulsory courses. We present two main results. First, studying with higher-achieving peers has no statistically significant or economically meaningful effects on educational choices. Second, we find suggestive evidence that women who have been exposed to higher achieving male peers end up in jobs in which they are more satisfied.
    Keywords: Gender, major choice, peer effects
    JEL: I21 I24 J24
    Date: 2021–06
  42. By: Pablo Celhay; Emilio Depetris-Chauvin; María Cristina Riquelme
    Abstract: We empirically study the impact of massive and sudden school closures on teenage pregnancy, following the 2011 nationwide student strike in Chile. Temporary high schools’ shutdown increases teenage pregnancies in 1.5% on average, while places in the highest tercile of strike exposure experienced an increase of 5%. This effect vanishes three quarters after the strike’s onset and is entirely driven by first-time mothers. The sudden and unexpected closure of schools allows interpreting these findings as mirroring an incapacitation effect of schools rather than human capital accumulation as a mechanism for the causal relationship between students’ strikes and teenage pregnancies.
    Date: 2020
  43. By: Aysun Hiziroglu Aygun (Department of Economics, Istanbul Technical University); Murat Guray Kirdar (Department of Economics, Boğaziçi University); Murat Koyuncu (Department of Economics, Boğaziçi University); Quentin Stoeffler (Department of Economics, Istanbul Technical University)
    Abstract: This paper investigates whether unconditional cash transfers can keep refugee children in school and out of work. We raise this question in the unique context of Turkey, which hosts the world’s largest refugee population (including 3.6 million Syrians). Refugees in Turkey are supported by the world’s largest cash transfer program for refugees, the Emergency Social Safety Net (ESSN). We exploit a program eligibility criterion to identify the causal impacts of the ESSN program using a regression discontinuity design. The results show a large effect on child labor and school enrollment among both male and female refugee children. Being a beneficiary household reduces the fraction of children working from 14.0 percent to 1.6 percent (a decrease of 88 percent) and the fraction of children aged 6–17 not in school from 36.2 to 13.7 percent (a reduction of 62 percent). By unpacking the mechanisms at play, we show that ESSN cash transfers become a significant part of a household’s income, substantially alleviate extreme poverty, and reduce a family’s need to resort to harmful coping strategies. Investigating the reasons for children not attending school, we find that the beneficiary households become more likely to send children to school because the cash transfer addresses both the opportunity cost and direct cost of schooling— although the former is more important. The findings have important implications for the design of policies aimed at supporting refugee children at scale.
    Keywords: refugees; cash transfers; education; child labor; regression discontinuity design; program evaluation; Turkey.
    JEL: F22 I21 I28 I38 J21 O15 O22
    Date: 2021–06
  44. By: Varadi, Alexandra (Bank of England)
    Abstract: Using matched microdata for the UK, I estimate two distinct channels via which credit supply shocks affect mortgage debt: one that operates through price conditions in credit markets; and another that operates through non-price credit conditions and affects the quantity of credit supplied by lenders. I find substantial heterogeneity in the different channels by age, financial situation, borrower type and income. Young households and home-owners respond exclusively to non-price credit conditions, in particular to changes in the supply of riskier lending. First-time buyers, middle-income households and middle-aged borrowers increase debt following shocks to either type of credit conditions. Debt responses of financially constrained borrowers are amplified by a simultaneous loosening in mortgage spreads and in credit availability at high loan to value or high loan to income ratios. In aggregate, household leverage responds more strongly to supply shocks that change the quantity of credit, as they affect households across the distribution, both at the intensive and at the extensive margin. But a loosening in price and non-price credit conditions simultaneously or a contraction in multiple price indicators at a time can also fuel rapid credit growth.
    Keywords: Household finance; bank lending; credit conditions; mortgages
    JEL: D14 E44 G21 G51 O16
    Date: 2021–06–25
  45. By: Amy Phillips; Ahmed Z. Khan; Frank Canters
    Abstract: This paper explores use-related and socio-demographic variations in the valuation of urban green space (UGS) characteristics in the Brussels Capital Region (BCR), lending insights into the valuation of the cultural ecosystem services provided by UGS. Mismatches in the supply of and demand for UGS characteristics are also identified. Knowledge on the ways in which valuation of UGS characteristics vary and on an inadequate supply of UGS characteristics should guide and inspire planning and management of UGS to ensure that UGS provision meets the unique needs of communities. Online surveys were conducted in the BCR to determine how people use UGS, how they experience these spaces, and whether these spaces fulfil their needs for urban green Our findings indicate that socio-demographic characteristics (namely age and household composition) correspond with distinct patterns of use and valuation. Two subgroupings of users are identified: nature-oriented users and social users. Our accessibility analysis shows that, compared to social users, nature-oriented users tend to travel farther to reach their most frequently used UGS but are more often satisfied with the supply of UGS characteristics. Our findings point to an inadequate supply of nature and overcrowding of UGS in the city centre of Brussels. We recommend that planners not only consider size and distance in UGS standards but also consider the demand for UGS characteristics as well.
    Keywords: Cultural ecosystem services; Ecosystem service demand; Ecosystem service mismatch; Ecosystem service supply; Green space use; Urban green space
    Date: 2021–03
  46. By: Tanya Livermore (Reserve Bank of Australia); Mike Major (Reserve Bank of Australia)
    Abstract: There has been a stark decline in the size and diversity of the Year 12 Economics student population in Australia since the early 1990s. This paper addresses 3 key questions to uncover what is driving these trends at Australia's high schools. First, which school and individual characteristics are most strongly associated with choosing Economics? Second, what are students' perceptions of Economics? And third, what differences in perceptions of Economics exist by sex and socio-economic background? We utilise unit record data from a Reserve Bank of Australia commissioned survey of over 4,800 students in Years 10 to 12 (15 to 18 year olds) and administrative school-level data on high schools in New South Wales. The RBA-led survey provides a unique primary source of data on high school students' perceptions of Economics that is novel to the Australian and international literature. We find that high school students typically have positive perceptions of economics as a field; however, the perceptions of Economics as a subject tend to be negative. Males and students from a higher socio-economic background have more favourable perceptions of Economics than other students, which is reflected in a higher likelihood of them choosing to study Economics. Controlling for a greater perceived understanding of what Economics is about does appear to reduce some of the sex and socio-economic differences in perceptions, but a gap remains. In particular, it remains that females have less interest in Economics and a less clear idea of 'whether they would be good at it' or what the subsequent career opportunities may be. Furthermore, students from a lower socio-economic background are less likely to feel 'they could do well in Economics if they put their mind to it', and less likely to report that teachers at their school promote the study of Economics. And both females and students from a lower socio-economic background are more likely to believe that 'it is a risk to study Economics because I don't know what it's about', and have more favourable perceptions of Business Studies. The results shed light on the scope for interventions to promote participation and diversity in the study of Economics.
    Keywords: economics; education; student survey; diversity
    JEL: I24
    Date: 2021–06
  47. By: Ondrej Schneider (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: This paper examines migration trends in the European Union since the enlargements of 2004-2007, which brought 100 million citizens of eleven Central and Eastern European countries into the EU. We examine country- and regional-level data on migration trends and show how European integration depleted the labor force in new member countries. Several of them lost 10% of their population since 2006, most of it via negative net migration. In 2019, 18% of Romanians, 14% of Lithuanians, 13% Croats, and Bulgarians lived in another EU country. The quantitative analysis shows that migration contributed positively to regional convergence, as every percentage point of net migration increased GDP per capita by roughly 0.01% and reduced unemployment by 0.1-0.2 percentage points. Further analysis will be needed to disentangle aggregate migration effects to quantify its impact on regions that lose their population via migration.
    Keywords: migration, labor markets, convergence, European Union
    JEL: F22 F66 J61 O15 R11 R23
    Date: 2021–07
  48. By: Shun-ichiro Bessho (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo); Haruaki Hirota (Faculty of Economics, Musashi University)
    Abstract: Many governments are introducing business-like accounting systems. This paperexamines the fiscal effects of compiling business-like financial statements on theexpenditures of local governments, exploiting a quasi-experimental environment inJapan. Using the variation in deadlines for compiling new statements given by thecentral government, we found that business-like financial statements might triggerthe local government to reconstruct their expenditures. While the reconstructiondiffers among localities, the social assistance expenses that are not nationally stan-dardized and subsidized decreased in common.
    Date: 2021–07
  49. By: Stephan Whitaker
    Abstract: One constant through the upheavals of 2020 was the steady stream of media reports about residents’ fleeing dense urban areas. In this data brief, I use the Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) and find that migration flows were in fact very unfavorable for urban neighborhoods in 2020. However, people’s taking flight from urban areas is only part of the story.
    Keywords: COVID-19
    Date: 2021–02–05
  50. By: Abbasiharofteh, Milad; Kinne, Jan; Krüger, Miriam
    Abstract: The proximity framework has attracted considerable attention in a scholarly discourse on the driving forces of knowledge exchange tie formation. It has been discussed that too much proximity is negatively associated with the effectiveness of a knowledge exchange relation. However, little is known about the key factors that trigger the formation of the boundaryspanning knowledge ties. Going beyond the "dyadic" perspective on proximity dimensions, this paper argues that the key factor in bridging distances may reside at the "triadic" level. We build on the notion of "the strength of weak ties" and its recent development by investigating the innovative performance and relations of more than 600,000 German firms. We explored and extracted information from the textual and relational content of firms' websites by using machine learning techniques and hyperlink analysis. We thereby proxied the innovative performance of firms using a deep learning text analysis approach and showed that the triadic property of bridging dyadic relations is a reliable predictor of firms' innovativeness. Relations embedded in cliques (i.e., strong ties) that connect cognitively distant firms are more strongly associated with firms' innovation, whereas inter-regional relations connecting different parts of a network (i.e., weak ties) are positively associated with firms' innovative performance. Also, the results suggest that a combination of strong inter-community and weak inter-regional relations are more positively related with firms' innovativeness compared to the combination of other relation types.
    Keywords: weak and strong ties,proximity,knowledge exchange,innovation,web mining,natural language processing
    JEL: C81 D83 L14 O31
    Date: 2021
  51. By: Algan, Yann (Sciences Po, Paris); Malgouyres, Clément (Paris School of Economics); Mayer, Thierry (Sciences Po, Paris); Thoenig, Mathias (University of Lausanne)
    Abstract: This paper studies how economic incentives influence cultural transmission, using a crucial expression of cultural identity: Child naming decisions. Our focus is on Arabic versus Non-Arabic names given in France over the 2003-2007 period. Our model of cultural transmission features three determinants: (i) vertical (parental) cultural transmission culture; (ii) horizontal (neighborhood) influence; (iii) information on the economic penalty associated with Arabic names. We find that economic incentives largely influence naming choices: Would the parental expectation on the economic penalty be zero, the annual number of babies born with an Arabic name would be more than 50 percent larger.
    Keywords: cultural economics, cultural transmission, first names, social interactions
    JEL: Z1 J3
    Date: 2021–06
  52. By: Cornelius Johnson; Stephan Whitaker
    Abstract: While almost no one anticipated the pandemic-induced shutdown of economic activity experienced this year, local government officials know that the business cycle will sooner or later pull down tax revenues. During years of expansion, cities and counties should be setting aside resources that will enable them to lessen the cuts necessary to balance their budgets during a recession. How prepared were the local governments of the Cleveland Fed’s Fourth District for the COVID-19 crisis?1 Looking at the most recent data available for a sample of the District’s largest cities and counties, we find that major local governments in the Fourth District were holding fund balances that were similar to or greater than their reserves in 2007, the year the Great Recession began. Some of the cities that had to slash their spending in 2009 and 2010 appear to have learned from that experience and have built up a deeper financial cushion since then. Likewise, some of the cities and counties that have lower balances now are those that had sufficient reserves in 2007 and were not forced to make deep cuts during the Great Recession.
    Keywords: recession; local government
    Date: 2020–10–22
  53. By: Tyler Anbinder; Dylan Connor; Cormac Ó Gráda; Simone Wegge
    Abstract: Automated census linkage algorithms have become popular for generating longitudinal data on social mobility, especially for immigrants and their children. But what if these algorithms are particularly bad at tracking immigrants? Using nineteenth-century Irish immigrants as a test case, we examine the most popular of these algorithms—that created by Abramitzky, Boustan, Eriksson (ABE), and their collaborators. Our findings raise serious questions about the quality of automated census links. False positives range from about one-third to one-half of all links depending on the ABE variant used. These bad links lead to sizeable estimation errors when measuring Irish immigrant social mobility.
    Keywords: Immigration; Census record matching; Social mobility
    JEL: N21 J61 R23
    Date: 2021–06
  54. By: Stephan Whitaker
    Abstract: I estimate that state and local governments have lost $141 billion of revenue from all sources in fiscal year 2020 (FY20) due to the COVID-19 mitigation shutdowns. Under three scenarios of increasing severity, I estimate that state and local governments will need to cut expenditures by between $59 billion and $350 billion in fiscal year 2021 (FY21) to offset impending loses of revenue. Some of the revenue losses can be offset by the rainy day funds that state and local governments have set aside during the expansion, but jurisdictions that lack a fiscal buffer may face painfully deep service cuts. This data brief updates and improves upon the estimates in the District Data Brief published on May 13, 2020. In these new estimates, I include all revenue sources that are likely to decline; the original brief covered only income and sales taxes.
    Keywords: COVID-19
    Date: 2020–06–29
  55. By: Vincent Dautel; Alessio Fusco
    Abstract: We analyse the existence and underlying mechanisms of neighbourhood effects in welfare-to-work transitions. The analysis is based on Luxembourg social security longitudinal data, which covers the period 2001-2015 and provides precise information at the postcode level, corresponding mostly to streets. Our identification strategy exploits plausible exogenous variations among neighbours provided by the thinness of the housing market once controlling for residential sorting. We first examine interactions among all neighbours using an individual-level analysis, before focusing on interactions among only welfare recipients using a matched-pair analysis. This second step allows us to deal with the mediating effect of welfare recipients' citizenship. The main findings highlight the existence of neighbourhood effects in welfare-to-work transitions, which are also affected by the characteristics of the neighbours, including their citizenship. These characteristics suggest that social norms and/or stigma prevail in welfare-to-work transitions over the support for welfare recipients to find a job, but not over the in-group support for welfare recipients. The matched-pair analysis provides contrasting results across citizenship for individuals from large-sized citizenship groups (interactions within the own group) and individuals from medium-sized groups (interactions between groups).
    Keywords: welfare-to-work transitions; neighbourhood effects; diversity; block-level data
    JEL: H53 I32 J21 J60 R23
    Date: 2021–06
  56. By: Emanuela Ciapanna (Bank of Italy); Gabriele Rovigatti (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: We study sales dynamics of grocery chain stores during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemics in Italy. We document a sustained growth in revenues for storable products, such as food staples and household supplies, arising right before restrictions to mobility were introduced, and protracted throughout the whole lockdown period. We further look into the revenue surge, by disentangling the role of different types of stores. We find that the increase has been driven by the dynamics of smaller outlets, located in urban areas, closer to the city center, while hypermarkets faced a drop during the lockdown period, plausibly related to their more peripheral position. We also exploit both the remarkable granularity of scanner data, and the staggered implementation of restrictions across Italian regions to causally identify the short-term effects of mobility constraints on outlets' sales. According to our estimates, large grocery stores in areas subject to lockdown measures earned revenues around 10 percent lower than their control group's.
    Keywords: Covid-19, grocery retail trade, consumption hoarding, mobility restrictions, contagion risk
    JEL: D12 D18 I30
    Date: 2021–06
  57. By: Dowds, Jonathan; Sullivan, James; Rowangould, Gregory; Aultman-Hall, Lisa
    Abstract: Safety, mobility, accessibility challenges, and dependence on personal vehicles have long plagued rural transportation systems. Benefits in these areas are widely touted by autonomous vehicle (AV) advocates. Seven mechanisms for AV-induced increases in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) are reviewed here, and five of these mechanisms are expected to have a disproportionately larger impact on rural VMT. There is an almost uniform expectation that AV-related VMT increases must be managed through car-sharing and ride-sharing systems. The landscape of origins and destinations and the total population of rural areas preclude reasonable sharing, and there is a risk of unintended consequences from pro-sharing policies that will limit rural AV adoption or increase unit costs leading to a failure to attain safety and mobility benefits. Designing policies for optimal AV deployment in rural areas requires modeling. This paper outlines five methods that have been used to study VMT changes: travel demand equalization; travel demand elasticity; travel demand models; and stated and revealed preference surveys. The first three suffer from a lack of rural-specific data. Revealed preference surveys are very expensive but may be worthwhile given the scope of the potential benefits to a large portion of the country and nearly 20% of its residents. Alternatively, the more cost-effective, albeit biased, stated preference survey might fill the rural AV data gap. Rural data are essential to inform policy design because rural areas will experience different AV benefits and impacts than are seen in urban areas. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Autonomous vehicles, rural travel, vehicle miles travel, induced demand
    Date: 2021–07–01
  58. By: Hasan, Iftekhar; Manfredonia, Stefano; Noth, Felix
    Abstract: This paper investigates the critical role of religion in the economic recovery after high-impact natural disasters. Exploiting the 2005 hurricane season in the southeast United States, we document that establishments in counties with higher religious adherence rates saw a significantly stronger recovery in terms of productivity for 2005-2010. Our results further suggest that a particular religious denomination does not drive the effect. We observe that different aspects of religion, such as adherence, shared experiences from ancestors, and institutionalised features, all drive the effect on recovery. Our results matter since they underline the importance of cultural characteristics like religion during and after economic crises.
    Keywords: establishment-level productivity,natural disasters,recovery,religion
    JEL: E23 E32 Z12
    Date: 2021
  59. By: Simon Baumgartinger-Seiringer; David Doloreux; Richard Shearmur; Michaela Trippl
    Abstract: This article contributes to the debate on new regional path development, proposing an analytical framework that accounts for new industries arising almost ex nihilo in places with weakly developed preconditions. The paper explores how seemingly adverse initial conditions can be translated into a new development path over time and casts light on the interplay between structure and agency in such settings. We find that new path development processes are not necessarily conditioned by past trajectories or by prior regional and technological capabilities, but can be initiated by forward-looking, entrepreneurial pioneers and consolidated by actors who develop the wider institutional and organizational structures to facilitate further growth of the new industry. We study the case of the wine industry in Southern Quebec, which emerged despite weakly developed preconditions and developed into a fully established, legitimized and supported path over the past forty years.
    Keywords: path development, structure, agency, wine industry, Quebec
    Date: 2021
  60. By: Karner, Alex
    Abstract: Public transit ridership forecasts have long played a role in understanding the potential success of a policy or investment, but their limitations have led researchers and practitioners to identify other performance analysis approaches. Accessibility, or the ease of reaching opportunities, has become very popular and widely used for this purpose. But commonly used accessibility measures also embody weaknesses that are seldom acknowledged; these limit their utility for truly understanding the benefits of transit investments. In this paper, we identify the pros and cons of these competing approaches and offer a third strategy. Specifically, we describe how revealed travel behavior data, potentially combined with near-term forecasts, can provide information about how current public transit users will be affected by a new project. While acknowledging the limitations of this approach, we demonstrate how accessibility can be misleading when applied without an understanding of ridership patterns.
    Date: 2021–06–30
  61. By: Deopa, Neha; Fortunato, Piergiuseppe
    Abstract: Social distancing measures help contain the spread of COVID-19 but the actual compliance has varied substantially across space and time. We ask whether cultural differences underlie this heterogeneity using mobility data across Switzerland between February and December 2020. We find that German-speaking cantons decreased their mobility for non essential activities significantly less than the French-speaking cantons. However, we find no such significant differences for the bilingual cantons. Contrary to the evidence in the literature, we find that within the Swiss context, high trusting areas exhibited a lower decline in mobility. Additionally, cantons supporting a limited role of the state in matters of welfare also displayed a lower mobility reduction.
    Keywords: COVID-19,culture,social distancing,trust,redistribution,mobility
    JEL: H12 Z1 D91
    Date: 2021
  62. By: Kim, Hyejung
    Abstract: This document presents the climate adaptation technologies applied in cities in the Republic of Korea and their implications for Latin American cities. This case study sets forth the implications to be considered when Latin American cities use technologies as part of efforts to adapt to climate change. Firstly, national and local institutional environments need to be reformed by aligning them with national and regional climate-related policies as well as international initiatives. Secondly, since cities are where adaptation challenges must be faced, support for local governments needs to be enhanced by encouraging them to experiment with new adaptation technologies and transfer them to other cities. Finally, digitalization is one of the essential conditions for enabling adaptation technologies to work effectively.
    Date: 2021–06–29
  63. By: Bursztyn, Leonardo; Cantoni, Davide; Yang, David Y.; Yuchtman, Noam; Zhang, Y. Jane
    Abstract: We study the causes of sustained participation in political movements. To identify the persistent effect of protest participation, we randomly indirectly incentivize Hong Kong university students into participation in an antiauthoritarian protest. To identify the role of social networks, we randomize this treatment’s intensity across major-cohort cells. We find that incentives to attend one protest within a political movement increase subsequent protest attendance but only when a sufficient fraction of an individual’s social network is also incentivized to attend the initial protest. One-time mobilization shocks have dynamic consequences, with mobilization at the social network level important for sustained political engagement.
    Keywords: political movements; social interactions; grant agreement 716837
    JEL: D72 D74 I23 Z13
    Date: 2021–06–01
  64. By: Felipe González; Mounu Prem
    Abstract: Police repression is a common feature of street protests around the world but evidence about its impact on dissident behavior is limited. We provide an empirical analysis of people linked to a student killed by a stray bullet coming from a policeman during a large protest. Using administrative data on daily school attendance, we follow his schoolmates and those living nearby the shooting in hundreds of protest and non-protest days to estimate whether police repression affected their protest behavior. We find that repression causes a temporary deterrence effect but only on students with social (rather than geographic) links to the victim. Moreover, we show that police violence increased adherence to a student-led boycott two years after the shooting and had negative educational consequences for students. These findings cast doubt on the effectiveness of police repression in quieting dissent and ensuring public safety.
    Date: 2020
  65. By: Luz Karime Abadía Alvarado, Silvia C. Gómez Soler, Juanita Cifuentes González; Silvia C. Gómez Soler; Juanita Cifuentes González
    Abstract: The Covid-19 pandemic is an unprecedented exogenous shock that has tested the responsiveness of education systems around the world. The international literature that has quantified the effect of school closings due to Covid-19 on school performance is still limited. This literature suggests that the closure of schools reduced the academic performance of the 2020 cohort compared to the previous ones. To date there is only one study by Lichand et al. 2021 that quantifies this effect for a Latin American country even though the countries of this region have been the most affected by the pandemic. This research seeks to fill this gap in the literature by studying the Colombian case using the information available in the databases of the Saber11 examination for the years 2017 to 2020. Using a pool of cross-sections and a school and time fixed effects model, we estimate the effect of the pandemic on the performance of graduating high school students, finding a negative effect that is in line with the existing literature. The significant reduction in the number of students taking the Saber11 exam in 2020, could raise suspicions about a possible selection bias in these results. We also used inverse probability weighting regressions and trimming by specific quantiles of the test score distribution to control for this possible source of bias. The results show that the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on Saber11 exam overall scores remains negative and statistically significant.
    Keywords: Covid-19, learning losses, standardized tests, sample selection
    JEL: I21 I29
    Date: 2021–07–02
  66. By: Chatterjee, Sidharta; Samanta, Mousumi
    Abstract: In this research paper, we discuss the nature of social knowledge and how it can influence consumer sentiments by affecting their economic decisions to some extent. In fact, this is a brief study of social knowledge summarizing its evolutionary origin and phylogenesis in the modern context. We have designed a simplistic mathematical model for a theoretical understanding of our assumption that has practical implications regarding its utility in the society. We find social networks generate enough social information that can influence user choice and preferences. Our study has implications for both the users and the developers of social networking sites.
    Keywords: Social knowledge, social information, consumer choice, social networking, knowledge society.
    JEL: Z1 Z13
    Date: 2021–06–18
  67. By: Bergman, Peter (Columbia University); Kopko, Elizabeth (Columbia University); Rodriguez, Julio (Columbia University)
    Abstract: Tracking is widespread in U.S. education. In post-secondary education alone, at least 71% of colleges use a test to track students. However, there are concerns that the most frequently used college placement exams lack validity and reliability, and unnecessarily place students from under-represented groups into remedial courses. While recent research has shown that tracking can have positive effects on student learning, inaccurate placement has consequences: students face misaligned curricula and must pay tuition for remedial courses that do not bear credits toward graduation. We develop an alternative system to place students that uses predictive analytics to combine multiple measures into a placement instrument. Compared to colleges'; existing placement tests, the algorithm is more predictive of future performance. We then conduct an experiment across seven colleges to evaluate the algorithm's effects on students. Placement rates into college-level courses increased substantially without reducing pass rates. Adjusting for multiple testing, algorithmic placement generally, though not always, narrowed gaps in college placement rates and remedial course taking across demographic groups. A detailed cost analysis shows that the algorithmic placement system is socially efficient: it saves costs for students while increasing college credits earned, which more than offsets increased costs for colleges. Costs could be reduced with improved data digitization as opposed to entering data by hand.
    Keywords: tracking, education, experiment
    JEL: I20 I24
    Date: 2021–06
  68. By: Lee, Yongsung; Mokhtarian, Patricia L.; Guhathakurta, Subhrajit; Circella, Giovanni; Iogansen, Xiatian
    Abstract: Millennials, those who were born between the early 1980s and the late 1990s, tend to have different travel patterns than the members of the preceding generations when they were at the same age. Among various dimensions of millennial travel, multimodality—the use of multiple travel modes— has important implications for transportation sustainability. Prior research has found that members of this generation travel more by walking, bicycling, and riding public transit. Further, multimodal travelers are usually better informed about and more sensitive to level-of-service attributes of various modes than are habitual users of single modes (especially cars). Therefore, exploring trends in multimodality among millennials could inform policymakers’ efforts to encourage more sustainable travel modes for millennials and shed light on how they might respond to policy interventions. Researchers at the University of California, Davis, compared millennials’ travel behavior to that of members of the preceding Generation X by analyzing data collected from 1,069 California commuters. The researchers analyzed the effects of individual attributes on the likelihood of different components of travel behavior, including multimodal travel. This policy brief summarizes the findings of that research and provides policy implications. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Automobile ownership, Mode choice, Residential location, Statistical analysis, Surveys, Travel behavior, Travel patterns, Vehicle miles of travel, Young adult
    Date: 2021–07–01
  69. By: Dowds, Jonathan; McRae, Glenn
    Abstract: Climate adaptation is now a well-documented need in the transportation sector, and there are strong conceptual frameworks for the adaptation process. Since climate adaptation is an emerging field, the pathways for developing the skills and competencies for adaptation careers are not well established. This white paper assesses the workforce development needs and current training opportunities related to transportation-sector climate adaptation. To do so, training needs were examined and opportunities identified by state and regional transportation agencies; training needs of aspiring and early-career climate adaptation professionals were cataloged; and a scan was completed of the educational opportunities in climate adaptation currently offered by universities in the United States. There is evidence of convergence on the areas of content knowledge, technical expertise, and soft skills that form the core competencies necessary to support climate adaptation within the transportation sector. These core competencies are in climate science, adaptation strategies, communication, and selection of adaptation measures/decision making under uncertainty. While these competencies need to be broadly distributed throughout transportation agencies, the relative emphasis placed on each competency will vary across agency functions and job responsibilities. The increased value placed on adaptation-related expertise by state departments of transportation and regional transportation agencies, as well as the emergence of new educational and training opportunities in climate adaptation available in higher education and professional organizations, is indicative of the potential for rapid growth in this area. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Business, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Climate adaptation, workforce development, training, extreme weather
    Date: 2021–07–01
  70. By: Nizar Allouch; A. Meca; K. Polotskaya
    Abstract: In this paper, we develop a new game theoretic network centrality measure based on the Shapley value. To do so, we consider a coalitional game, where the worth of each coalition is the total play in the game introduced in Ballester et al. (2006). We first establish that the game is convex. As a consequence, the Shapley value belongs to the core, which enhances the attractive features of our new centrality measure. Then, we compute the Shapley value for various examples and illustrate some of its properties.
    Keywords: Social networks; network games; peer effects; centrality measures; Bonacich centrality; Shapley value
    JEL: C71 C72 C78 D85
    Date: 2021–06
  71. By: Wenhua Di; Yichen Su
    Abstract: Consumers with higher income often spend more on luxury goods. As a result, lower-income consumers who seek to increase their perceived income and social status may be motivated to purchase conspicuous luxury goods. Lower-income consumers may also desire to emulate the visible consumption displayed by their wealthier peers. Using a unique vehicle financing dataset, we find that consumers with lower credit scores value vehicle brand prestige more than average consumers. The stronger preferences for prestige lead non-prime consumers to purchase more expensive vehicles than they otherwise would have. We find evidence that the preferences for prestige are driven both by status signaling and peer emulation motives. Furthermore, we show that larger vehicle purchases financed by auto loans lead to worse loan performance and credit standing for non-prime consumers.
    Keywords: Conspicuous Consumption; Status; Emulation; Automobile; Show Off; Vehicles; Auto Loan; Creditworthiness; Non-Prime
    JEL: D12 G51 L62
    Date: 2021–06–04
  72. By: Elyta Elyta (Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, Tanjungpura University, Indonesia Author-2-Name: Herlan Herlan Author-2-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, Tanjungpura University, Indonesia Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:)
    Abstract: " Objective - Singkawang City, which is located in the Province of West Kalimantan-Indonesia, is a city with a significant level of ethnic heterogeneity, making it very vulnerable to various conflicts. However, in 2018, Singkawang City was named the most tolerant city in Indonesia through an assessment from the Setara Institute. For this reason, this study was conducted to analyze the political form of harmony and social capital, E-government as a Tolerant City in Singkawang City. Methodology – The method used in this research is descriptive qualitative with literature study as a data collection method. Data analysis was carried out in stages, namely collecting data, summarizing data, and making conclusions. This study finds that the form of political harmony is the intense collaboration be-tween state actors, the Religious Harmony Forum, and the community. Findings – Interaction and commu-nicative relationships complement and strengthen each other. As the main actor, the people of Singkawang City have also seen and understood that they have diverse perspectives to avoid discrimination and intolerance. In addition, there are also forms of social capital created from the relationship between ethnic communities in Singkawang City, namely in the form of general norms and group characteristics.Therefore, it is concluded that the success of the Singkawang City government in making its area the most tolerant city in Indonesia from the Setara Institute in 2018 cannot be separated from the social capital owned by each tribe to live side by side in harmony with high values. spirit of tolerance. Novelty – In addition, e-government and knowledge management are also important points in the formation of a tolerant society in Singkawang City which has people from various backgrounds. Type of Paper - Review"
    Keywords: political harmony; social capital; tolerant city; e-government
    JEL: G32 H79
    Date: 2021–06–30
  73. By: Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza (Universidad Privada Boliviana, La Paz, Bolivia and The World Bank, Washington D.C., USA); Pablo Evia Salas (trAndeS, Berlin, Germany); Jorge Martinez-Vazquez (International Center for Public Policy, Georgia State University, USA)
    Abstract: Economic stability plays a key role in any fiscal and political decentralization process. In the face of financial and economic shocks, when revenues and expenditures are reduced, countries may decide to gather resources at the central level—creating a recentralization scenario—or may take away devolved powers and centralize political institutions. Using data for 75 countries, we examine the effects of economic crisis on fiscal and political decentralization. We find that several types of crises lead to fiscal recentralization; only in the case of domestic borrowing crises is the effect further revenue decentralization, probably reflecting the central government’s willingness to empower subnational governments to avoid similar crises in the future. In addition, we explore the effects of economic crisis on political decentralization and find that they are concordant to the fiscal decentralization effects, suggesting an alignment of effects along political and fiscal dimensions of subnational autonomy. We also examine whether economic crises trigger more permanent, rather than just transitory, changes in the level of decentralization. We generally find more long-lasting effects in the case of fiscal decentralization measured from the expenditure side. This pattern is very apparent in the cases of inflation and banking crises and less clear but still present in the cases of currency and external debt crisis. The main results are robust to different specifications, estimation methods, and measurements of decentralization.
    Date: 2021–06–30
  74. By: Richard Cóndor
    Abstract: The Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) was a loan modification program introduced in 2009, in the U.S., to assist highly indebted homeowners with avoiding foreclosure. This program also encouraged private lenders to offer more sustainable modifications. This paper studies the role of HAMP in preventing higher foreclosures rates during and after the Great Recession, in the context of a general-equilibrium heterogeneous-agents model with two types of households (Borrowers and Savers), uninsurable idiosyncratic risk, and both private and HAMP modifications. The main result is that, without HAMP, the peak in the foreclosure rate could have been 50% larger (3.2 percent vs 2.2 percent in data).
    JEL: G51 E44 C61
    Date: 2021–06
  75. By: Herings, Jean-Jacques; Mauleon, Ana (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium); Vannetelbosch, Vincent (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium)
    Abstract: We study the criminal networks that will emerge in the long run when criminals are neither myopic nor completely farsighted but have some limited degree of farsightedness. We adopt the horizon-K farsighted set of Herings, Mauleon and Vannetelbosch (2019) to answer this question. We Önd that in criminal networks with n criminals, the set consisting of the complete network is a horizon-K farsighted set whenever the degree of farsightedness of the criminals is larger than or equal to (n 1). Moreover, the complete network is the unique horizon-(n 1) farsighted set. Hence, the predictions obtained in case of completely farsighted criminals still hold when criminals are much less farsighted.
    Keywords: Limited farsightedness, Stability, Criminal Networks
    JEL: A14 C70 D20
    Date: 2021–04–26
  76. By: Choi, Hoon
    Abstract: This paper examines how sales of local small businesses can be promoted through COVID-19 stimulus payments. In the beginning of April, 2020, Gyeonggi provincial government in Korea implemented a stimulus payment program worth up to 500 thousand Korean Won (416 US dollars) per person to encourage local consumption. By exploiting unique features of the stimulus payments that restricted the use of the payments in the municipality of residence at establishments accepting local currency, the paper identifies the treatment effect of the stimulus payments, taking a difference-in-difference-in-differences approach. The results suggest that the stimulus payments led to significant increases in card spending in establishments accepting local currency, relative to other establishments. The estimated overall spending effect of 4.1% persisted over three weeks, and the effect is heterogeneous across sectors. While the estimated spending effect of the stimulus payments is larger among sectors such as groceries, furniture, and beauty, sectors such as restaurants, leisure, and travel that experienced substantial sales losses did not gain much from the stimulus payments. This suggests that targeting sectors the most severely affected can be a more effective policy measure in terms of alleviating the gaps in COVID-19 induced economic losses across sectors.
    Keywords: COVID19 stimulus payments; Card transaction data; Local small businesses; Korea; Difference-in-difference-in-differences.
    JEL: D12 E21 H24
    Date: 2021–06–30
  77. By: Federica Natalia Rosati; Luisa Moretto; Jacques Teller
    Abstract: The literature is increasingly approaching the participation of households in the delivery of urban services through the lens of co-production. However, there has been no in-depth exploration of the relationship between incremental changes in the urban fabric (urban typologies and morphologies) and the forms of adaptations of co-produced water and sanitation services (WSS). The paper draws on three planned neighbourhoods in Hanoi to examine these incremental changes by considering the transformation of the neighbourhood at different scales and the consequent evolution of the sociotechnical arrangements for the delivery of water and sanitation services. By exploring forms of reconfiguration of the built environment and embedded water infrastructures, the paper outlines the possibility of an alternate reading of service co-production initiatives as incremental spatial practices, with an emphasis on the role of technology in allowing transformation processes.
    Keywords: co-production; Hanoi; incremental infrastructures; urban transformation; Water and sanitation services
    Date: 2020–06–01
  78. By: Ly Dai Hung (Vietnam Institute of Economics, Hanoi, Vietnam)
    Abstract: The paper examines the determinants of convergence in economic growth (relative convergence) across provinces in Vietnam. The methodology combines the endogenous growth theory, analyzed in Aghion, Howitt và Mayer-Foulkes (2005), with empirical evidence on a data sample of 63 provinces over 2010-2019. The result shows that only with high-quality human capital, the economic growth rate raises for a higher proximity to world technology frontier, or the convergence of economic growth happens. Among the central cities, Hai Phong has an outstanding growth rate by exploring the backwardness advantage, based on the combination of high proximity to world technology frontier with improvement of institutional quality. The result suggests that the human capital should receive highest investment on the policy architecture in the future.
    Abstract: Bài viết đánh giá các yếu tố chi phối sự hội tụ về tốc độ tăng trưởng thu nhập (hội tụ tương đối) của các tỉnh, thành phố trực thuộc Trung ương. Phương pháp nghiên cứu kết hợp lý thuyết tăng trưởng nội sinh dựa vào bài báo của nhóm tác giả Aghion, Howitt và Mayer-Foulkes (2005) với bằng chứng thực nghiệm dựa vào bộ số liệu của 63 địa phương giai đoạn 2010-2019. Kết quả cho thấy chỉ với các địa phương có chất lượng cao về nguồn nhân lực, tốc độ tăng trưởng thu nhập gia tăng khi khoảng cách thu nhập càng xa, tức là hội tụ về tốc độ tăng trưởng. Còn các địa phương còn lại đang tồn tại sự phân cực về tốc độ tăng trưởng. Trong các thành phố trực thuộc Trung ương , Hải Phòng có tốc độ tăng trưởng vượt trội nhờ tận dụng lợi thế của địa phương đi sau, dựa vào sự kết hợp của khoảng cách công nghệ ban đầu xa và cải thiện liên tục về chất lượng thể chế. Các kết quả gợi ý rằng chất lượng nguồn nhân lực cần được chú trọng trong các thiết kế chính sách ở cấp địa phương trong thời gian tới.
    Keywords: Cross-Section Regression,Economic of Region and Provinces,Convergence of Economic Growth
    Date: 2021–01
  79. By: Jorge Luis Garcia (Clemson University); Frederik Bennhoff (The University of Chicago); Duncan Ermini Leaf (University of Southern California); James J. Heckman (The University of Chicago)
    Abstract: This paper monetizes the life-cycle intragenerational and intergenerational benefits of the Perry Preschool Project, a pioneering high-quality early childhood education program implemented before Head Start that targeted disadvantaged African-Americans and was evaluated by a randomized trial. It has the longest follow-up of any experimentally evaluated early childhood education program. We follow participants into late midlife as well as their children into adulthood. Impacts on the original participants and their children generate substantial benefits. Access to life-cycle data enables us to evaluate the accuracy of widely used schemes to forecast life-cycle benefits from early-life test scores, which we find wanting.
    Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, dynastic benefits, early childhood education, intergenerational program evaluation, life-cycle benefits
    JEL: J13 I28 C93 H43
    Date: 2021–06
  80. By: Daniel Avdic; Stephanie von Hinke
    Abstract: Excessive alcohol use is associated with a wide range of adverse outcomes that inflict large societal costs. This paper investigates the impacts of increases in regulated opening hours of Swedish alcohol retailers on alcohol purchases, health and crime outcomes by relating changes in these outcomes in municipalities that increased their retail opening hours to those in municipalities whose opening hours remained unchanged. We show that extended opening hours led to statistically and economically significant increases in alcohol purchases by around two percent per weekly opening hour, but find no corresponding increases in adverse outcomes related to the consumption of alcohol. We study potential mechanisms, such as consumption spillovers and on and off-premise substitution, and we discuss policy implications of our findings.
    Date: 2021–06–24
  81. By: Simon Amez; Stijn Baert (-)
    Abstract: We study whether living in a student room as a tertiary education student (instead of commuting between one’s parental residence and college or university) affects exam results. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to study this relationship beyond cross-sectional analysis. That is, we exploit rich longitudinal data on 1,653 Belgian freshmen students’ residential status and exam scores to control for observed heterogeneity as well as for individual fixed (or random) effects. We find that after correcting for unobserved heterogeneity, the association found in earlier contributions disappears. This finding of no significant impact of living in a student room on exam results is robust for other methods used for causal inference including instrumental variable techniques.
    Keywords: residential status, exam scores, longitudinal data, causality.
    JEL: I23 J24
    Date: 2021–07
    Abstract: This report presents results from a Danish qualitative interview-based study with teachers, students parents, school leaders and representatives from interest groups (n=22). The focus is on the academic year 2020-21 in Danish compulsory education, which can be described as the first full year with Covid-19. The study reveals how practices from the first school closures in the academic year 2019-20 were brought into 2020-21, the report focuses on the second phase of school closures, starting December 2020. Key findings relate to topics of wellbeing and vulnerability, structure and digital technologies used for remote schooling, and feedback and assessment. Finally, perspectives on how experiences from the situation with the Covid-19 pandemic should inform the near and not-so-near future in Danish compulsory education are offered
    Keywords: Covid-19 education, primary education, secondary education, special education, inclusive education, digital education, hybrid education
    Date: 2021–06
  83. By: Hindriks, Jean (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium); Madio, Leonardo; Serse, Valerio (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium)
    Abstract: We study the impact of the Belgium lockdown on retail prices using a unique dataset tracking daily prices and promotions for various products in different stores and retail chains.Two distinctive features of our analysis are the ban on promotions during the first two weeks of the lockdown, and the presence of local pricing retail chains (LP) competing with uniform (national) pricing retail chains (UP). We decompose the price changes into the regular price, the frequency, and the size of promotions. The sale price (i.e., the price paid by consumer purchasing on “sale”) increased by 7% within two weeks and by 2.5% within three months. We then provide an heterogeneity analysis of the regular price variation across stores, retailers, products, and over time. We show that LP chains reacted the most to the lockdown with spatial heterogeneity. The heterogeneity in price response also suggests that the price increase was not driven by cost inflation.
    Keywords: COVID-19, pricing, lockdown, retailers
    JEL: D22 E30 E31 L11
    Date: 2021–05–01

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