nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2021‒06‒21
57 papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. The Anatomy of the Transmission of Macroprudential Policies By Acharya, Viral V.; Bergant, Katharina; Crosignani, Matteo; Eisert, Tim; McCann, Fergal
  2. The Effects of the Great Migration on Urban Renewal By Daniel Hartley; Bhashkar Mazumder; Aastha Rajan; Ying Shi
  3. Integrating Multifunctionality Framework for Planning Emergency Open Public Spaces in High-Density Urban Areas: Lessons from COVID-19 Pandemic By Kahya, Guzin Yeliz; Lotfata, Aynaz
  4. Identifying Taste-Based Discrimination: Effect of Black Electoral Victories on Racial Prejudice and Economic Gaps By Jung Sakong
  5. Learning about Housing Cost: Survey Evidence from the German House Price Boom By Fabian Kindermann; Julia Le Blanc; Monika Piazzesi; Martin Schneider
  6. One Money, Many Markets: Monetary Transmission and Housing Financing in the Euro Area By Corsetti, Giancarlo; Duarte, Joao; Mann, Samuel
  7. Does Peer Motivation Impact Educational Investments? Evidence From DACA By Briana Ballis
  8. The Returns to Public Library Investment By Gregory Gilpin; Ezra Karger; Peter Nencka
  9. The Size of U.S. Metropolitan Areas By McKenzie Humann; Jordan Rappaport
  10. The Geography of Mortgage Lending in Times of FinTech By Basten, Christoph; Ongena, Steven
  11. Effects of Preferential Tax Treatment on German Homeownership By Stefanie Braun
  12. Real Estate and Rental Markets during Covid Times By Bertrand Achou; Hippolyte d'Albis; Eleni Iliopulos
  13. Conformism, Social Segregation and Cultural Assimilation By Francesco Flaviano Russo
  14. Analysis of the Effect of Compact Cities on Travelling Distance and Time by Various Means of Transportation (Japanese) By KUTSUZAWA Ryuji; AKAI Nobuo; TAKEMOTO Toru
  15. Optimal kilometre tax for electric passenger cars By Börjesson, Maria; Asplund, Disa; Hamilton, Carl
  16. Yes, You Can! Effects of Transparent Admission Standards on High School Track Choice: A Randomized Field Experiment By Tamás Keller; Károly Takács; Felix Elwert
  17. Das House Kapital By Grossmann, Volker; Larin, Benjamin; Steger, Thomas M.
  18. Home truths: options for reforming residential property taxes in England By Cheshire, Paul; Hilber, Christian A. L.
  19. The Pathway to Enrolling in a High-Performance High School: Understanding Barriers to Access By Lisa Barrow; Lauren Sartain
  20. Learning about Homelessness Using Linked Survey and Administrative Data By Bruce D. Meyer; Angela Wyse; Alexa Grunwaldt; Carla Medalia; Derek Wu
  21. Fiscal decentralization and efficiency of public services delivery by local governments in Ghana By Isaac Otoo; Michael Danquah
  22. Hedging Against Inflation: Housing vs. Equity By Daniel Fehrle
  23. Refugees and the Educational Attainment of Natives By Colin Green; Jon Marius Vaag Iversen
  24. Unemployment and Crime Victimization: a Local Approach By Hémet, Camille
  25. High-Technology Zones, Misallocation of Resources among Cities and Aggregate Productivity: Evidence from China By Laiqun Jin; Xiuyan Liu; Sam Hak Kan Tang
  26. Does Immigration Grow the Pie? Asymmetric Evidence from Germany By Nicolo Maffei-Faccioli; Eugenia Vella
  27. Better Alone? Evidence on the Costs of Intermunicipal Cooperation By Clémence Tricaud
  28. A map of the fractal structure of high-tech dynamics across EU regions By Wirkierman, Ariel L.; Ciarli, Tommaso; Savonna, Maria
  29. Housing key workers: scoping challenges, aspirations, and policy responses for Australian cities By Gilbert, Catherine; Nasreen, Zahra; Gurran, Nicole
  30. The Causal Effect of Transport Infrastructure: Evidence from a New Historical Database By Lindgren Erik; Per Pettersson-Lidbom; Bjorn Tyrefors
  31. Evaluating Sustainable Development by Composite Index: Evidence from French Departments By Jean Bonnet; Eva Coll-Martínez; Patricia Renou-Maissant
  32. US banking deregulation and local economic growth: A spatial analysis By Laura Spierdijk; Pieter IJtsma; Sherrill Shaffer
  33. Social Media and Xenophobia: Evidence from Russia By Bursztyn, Leonardo; Egorov, Georgy; Enikolopov, Ruben; Petrova, Maria
  34. Audit Studies of Housing in the United States: Established, Emerging, and Future Research By Gaddis, S. Michael; DiRago, Nicholas V.
  35. Gathering round Big Tech: how the market for acquisitions reinforces regional inequalities in the US By Feldman, Maryann; Guy, Frederick; Iammarino, Simona; Ioramashvili, Carolin
  36. The elusive quest for the holy grail of an impact of EU funds on regional growth By Jan Fidrmuc; Martin Hulényi; Olga Zajkowska
  37. Pandemics and Local Economic Growth: Evidence from the Great Influenza in Italy By Carillo, Mario; Jappelli, Tullio
  38. Migration, Diversity and Regional Risk Sharing By Ventura, Luigi; Ventura, Maria
  39. Failing Malls: Optimizing Opportunities for Housing By Blanco, Hilda
  40. Optimal Lockdown in a Commuting Network By Fajgelbaum, Pablo; Khandelwal, Amit; Kim, Wookun; Mantovani, Cristiano; Schaal, Edouard
  41. Panic? Probing Angst over Immigration and Crime By Clotilde Mahé; Sergio Parra-Cely
  42. The effects of shortening potential benefit duration: Evidence from regional cut-offs and a policy reform By Gałecka-Burdziak, Ewa; Góra, Marek; Jessen, Jonas; Jessen, Robin; Kluve, Jochen
  43. The Effect of Principal Reduction on Household Distress: Evidence from Mortgage Cramdown By Jacelly C. Cespedes; Carlos R. Parra; Clemens Sialm
  44. Fighting for Curb Space: Parking, Ride-Hailing, Urban Freight Deliveries, and Other Users By Jaller, Miguel; Rodier, Caroline; Zhang, Michael; Lin, Huachao; Lewis, Kathryn
  45. Stay-at-home orders in a fiscal union By Mario J. Crucini; Oscar O'Flaherty
  46. The Food Retail Landscape Across Rural America By Steves, Alexander; Cho, Clare; Metin, Çakır; Kong, Xiangwen; Boland, Michael
  47. The U.S. Great Recession Experience. The Reasons why Losses in Jobs and in Home Equity Savings reinforced each other By De Koning, Kees
  48. Social Norms and Gender-Typical Occupational Choices By Patricia Palffy; Patrick Lehnert; Uschi Backes-Gellner
  49. The Franchise, Policing, and Race: Evidence from Arrests Data and the Voting Rights Act By Facchini, Giovanni; Knight, Brian; Testa, Cecilia
  50. The Geography of Pandemic Containment By Elisa Giannone; Nuno Paixao; Xinle Pang
  51. The Economic Impact of Critical National Infrastructure Failure Due to Space Weather By Edward J. Oughton
  52. Understanding Spatial Variation in COVID-19 across the United States By Desmet, Klaus; Wacziarg, Romain
  53. How safe is safe enough? Psychological mechanisms underlying extreme safety demands for self-driving cars By Azim Shariff; Jean-François Bonnefon; Iyad Rahwan
  54. How much lockdown policies contribute to local unemployment? Evidence from the first and second waves of COVID-19 By Marcus Dockerty; Antonis Kotidis; Ilknur Zer
  55. Capabilities, diversification & economic dynamics in European Regions By Jan Fagerberg; Martin Srholec
  56. Experiences of 'home' in the private rental sector: a qualitative research study of the experience of Irish tenants during the COVID-19 pandemic By Michael Byrne; Juliana Sassi
  57. It's About Time: Examining Inequality in the Time Cost of Waiting By Holt, Stephen B; Vinopal, Katie M.

  1. By: Acharya, Viral V.; Bergant, Katharina; Crosignani, Matteo; Eisert, Tim; McCann, Fergal
    Abstract: We analyze how regulatory constraints on household leverage-in the form of loan-to-income and loan-to-value limits-affect residential mortgage credit and house prices as well as other asset classes not directly targeted by the limits. Supervisory loan level data suggest that mortgage credit is reallocated from low-to high-income borrowers and from urban to rural counties. This reallocation weakens the feedback loop between credit and house prices and slows down house price growth in "hot" housing markets. Consistent with constrained lenders adjusting their portfolio choice, more-affected banks drive this reallocation and substitute their risk-taking into holdings of securities and corporate credit.
    Keywords: House Prices; household leverage; macroprudential regulation; Residential Mortgage Credit
    JEL: E21 E44 E58 G21 R21
    Date: 2020–06
  2. By: Daniel Hartley; Bhashkar Mazumder; Aastha Rajan; Ying Shi
    Abstract: The Great Migration significantly increased the number of African Americans moving to northern and western cities beginning in the first half of the twentieth century. We show that their arrival shaped “slum clearance” and urban redevelopment efforts in receiving cities. To estimate the effect of migrants, we instrument for Black population changes using a shift-share instrument that interacts historical migration patterns with local economic shocks that predict Black out-migration from the South. We find that local governments responded by undertaking more urban renewal projects that aimed to redevelop and rehabilitate “blighted” areas. More Black migrants also led to an increase in the estimated number of displaced families. This underscores the contribution of spatial policies such as urban renewal towards understanding the long-term consequences of the Great Migration on central cities and Black neighborhoods and individuals.
    Keywords: urban renewal; great migration
    JEL: J15 N92 R31 R58
    Date: 2021–02–25
  3. By: Kahya, Guzin Yeliz; Lotfata, Aynaz
    Abstract: Purpose This study aims to translate residents’ and local organizations’ responses to the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions into the emergency planning agenda of cities. The study underlines the multifunctionality of existing public facilities to raise urban flexibility, in particular, if there is a need to increase the open public space capacity of dense built-up urban areas in emergency conditions. Design/methodology/approach The preliminary accessibility analysis was conducted using the public schools of Bahcelievler in Istanbul Metropolitan to study whether there are ways to improve open public space deficits in high-densely urban environments. In addition, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) were mapped using Remote Sensing to identify the existence of greenery and vacant lands for future interventions. The literature review on multifunctionality was applied to propagate the formulation of the research problems and identify the potential research idea. Findings The preliminary analysis’ results have shown that by including open public space of schools into public use about 96,740 m2 of open space will be added to the Bahcelievler District. In addition, this study conceptualizes a new research idea by inviting policymakers and planners to reinvent traditionally defined multifunctionality concepts in emergency planning of public facilities. This study suggested a guideline that underlines three spatial, temporal, and regulative aspects for the resident-based emergency planning of public facilities. Social implications The multifunctionality of public facilities improves neighborhood walkability, supports mixed land uses as a critical component of achieving better places to live, and addresses the diversity of opportunities within the walking distance. Originality/value This study reinvents the multifunctionality concept and defines it in a way to boost urban flexibility in conditions of emergency.
    Date: 2021–06–02
  4. By: Jung Sakong
    Abstract: I test for the causal impact of Black electoral victories in local elections on White Americans’ attitude toward Black Americans. Using Race Implicit Attitude Test scores as a measure of racial prejudice and close-election regression-discontinuity design for causal inference, I find Black electoral victories cause measures of racial bias to rise, by 4% of the average Black-White difference in IAT scores. Simultaneously, they widen racial gaps in unemployment and mortgage denials. Interpreting these close electoral victories as instrumental variables, I find a large causal effect of prejudice-based racial discrimination on Black-White economic gaps.
    Keywords: Racial discrimination; Racial discrimination Regression discontinuity
    JEL: D91 G41 J15 J71
    Date: 2021–05–17
  5. By: Fabian Kindermann; Julia Le Blanc; Monika Piazzesi; Martin Schneider
    Abstract: This paper uses new household survey data to study expectation formation during the recent housing boom in Germany. The cross section of forecasts depends on only two household characteristics: location and tenure. The average household in a region responds to local conditions but underpredicts local price growth. Renters make on average higher and hence more accurate forecasts than owners, although their forecasts are more dispersed and their mean squared forecast errors are higher. A quantitative model of learning about housing cost can match these facts. It emphasizes the unique information structure of housing among asset markets: renters who do not own the asset are relatively well informed about its cash flow, since they pay for housing services that owners simply consume. Renters then make more accurate forecasts in a boom driven by an increase in rents and recovery from a financial crisis.
    JEL: E0 G0 R0
    Date: 2021–06
  6. By: Corsetti, Giancarlo; Duarte, Joao; Mann, Samuel
    Abstract: We study the transmission of monetary shocks across euro-area countries using a dynamic factor model and high-frequency identification. We develop a methodology to assess the degree of heterogeneity. We find this to be low in financial variables and output, but significant in consumption, consumer prices, and variables related to local housing and labor markets. We build a small open economy model featuring a housing sector and calibrate it to Spain. We show that varying the share of adjustable-rate mortgages and loan-to-value ratios explains up to one-third of the cross-country heterogeneity in the response of output and private consumption.
    Keywords: Adjustable Mortgage Rates; High-Frequency Identification; housing market; Loan-to-value Ratio; monetary policy; monetary union
    JEL: E21 E31 E44 E52 F44 F45
    Date: 2020–06
  7. By: Briana Ballis (University of California, Merced)
    Abstract: Despite the significant influence that peer motivation is likely to have on educational investments during high school, it is difficult to test empirically since exogenous changes in peer motivation are rarely observed. In this paper, I focus on the 2012 introduction of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) to study a setting in which peer motivation changed sharply for a subset of high school students. DACA significantly increased the returns to schooling for undocumented youth, while leaving the returns for their peers unchanged. I find that DACA induced undocumented youth to invest more in their education, which also had positive spillover effects on ineligible students (those born in the US) who attended high school with high concentrations of DACA-eligible youth.
    Keywords: high school, DACA, Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, undocumented youth, Spillover effects
    JEL: I26 H52 J15
    Date: 2021–06
  8. By: Gregory Gilpin; Ezra Karger; Peter Nencka
    Abstract: Local governments spend over 12 billion dollars annually funding the operation of 15,000 public libraries in the United States. This funding supports widespread library use: more than 50% of Americans visit public libraries each year. But despite extensive public investment in libraries, surprisingly little research quantities the effects of public libraries on communities and children. We use data on the near-universe of U.S. public libraries to study the effects of capital spending shocks on library resources, patron usage, student achievement, and local housing prices. We use a dynamic difference-in-difference approach to show that library capital investment increases children’s attendance at library events by 18%, children’s checkouts of items by 21%, and total library visits by 21%. Increases in library use translate into improved children’s test scores in nearby school districts: a $1,000 or greater per-student capital investment in local public libraries increases reading test scores by 0.02 standard deviations and has no effects on math test scores. Housing prices do not change after a sharp increase in public library capital investment, suggesting that residents internalize the increased cost and improved quality of their public libraries.
    Keywords: public libraries; capital spending; test scores
    JEL: H41 H75 I21 I28 R0
    Date: 2021–04–12
  9. By: McKenzie Humann; Jordan Rappaport
    Abstract: Metropolitan areas—unions of nearby built-up locations within which people travel on a day-to-day basis among places of residence, employment, and consumption—serve as a fundamental unit of economic analysis. But existing delineations of U.S. metro areas—including metropolitan Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs), Urbanized Areas, and Commuting Zones—stray far from this conception. We develop a flexible algorithm that uses commuting flows among U.S. census tracts in 2000 to match varied interpretations of our metropolitan conception. Under a baseline parameterization that balances encompassing commuting flows and excluding sparsely settled land, our Kernel-Based Metropolitan Areas (KBMAs) capture almost all of the population and employment of metropolitan CBSAs but only a small portion of their land area. The population of the baseline KBMAs is distributed more diffusely than the population of existing delineations, suggesting KBMAs better match the geographic scope of agglomeration. But as with existing delineations, population becomes more bunched across the largest KBMAs. Settled land area expands proportionately with population across small KBMAs but increasingly less than proportionately as population becomes larger, suggesting the existence of centripetal forces that temper the geographic expansion of metropolitan areas.
    Keywords: Metropolitan Areas; Metro Areas
    JEL: R12 R14 R2 R4
    Date: 2021–05–25
  10. By: Basten, Christoph; Ongena, Steven
    Abstract: How does banks' geographical footprint change when a FinTech platform allows offering mortgages to regions without branch presence? Unique data on responses from different banks to each household yield three salient findings: First, banks offer 4% more often and 6 basis points cheaper when markets have high versus low concentration, implying more profitable follow-on business. Second, they offer 2% more often and 2 bps cheaper when unemployment or house price growth in the applicant's state are one standard deviation less correlated with those at home, improving portfolio diversification. Third, these offers are increasingly automated, using available hard information more efficiently.
    Keywords: Banking Automation; Bartik instrument; Credit Risk Diversification; Fintech; Mortgage lending; Online Pricing; Pandemic; spatial competition
    JEL: G2 L1 R3
    Date: 2020–06
  11. By: Stefanie Braun
    Abstract: The paper analyzes the effects of mortgage interest deductibility and untaxed imputed rental income on the German homeownership. I use a general equilibrium life-cycle framework, where a minimum down-payment constraint on purchases of housing capital is the critical element of the model framework. I find that both tax policies would increase Germany's low homeownership rate. However, these tax policies would entail substantial welfare losses for individuals of all income quintiles in the long run. Finally, wealth e ects are relatively small and the welfare analysis shows that individuals would prefer to live in an economy without preferential tax treatment of housing.
    Keywords: German homeownership rate; Housing taxation; Imputed rents; Mortgage deductibility; Capital accumulation
    JEL: E62 H3
    Date: 2021–06
  12. By: Bertrand Achou (HEC Montréal - HEC Montréal); Hippolyte d'Albis (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Eleni Iliopulos (EPEE - Centre d'Etudes des Politiques Economiques - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - Université Paris-Saclay)
    Abstract: In this work we introduce a general equilibrium model with landlords, indebted owner-occupiers and renters to study housing markets' dynamics. We estimate it by using standard Bayesian methods and match the US data of the last decades. This framework is particularly suited to explain current trends on housing markets. We highlight the crucial relationship between interest rates, house prices and rents, and argue that it helps understanding the main driving forces. Our analysis suggests that current developments on housing markets can play a role for a recovery from the Covid pandemic as they have an expansionary effect on aggregate output. Moreover, we account for the heterogeneous impact of crisis-induced policies depending on agents' status on the housing market. We show how, despite an increase in housing prices, the welfare of landlords has been negatively hit. This is associated to the joint decrease in returns on housing and financial assets that reduces their financial incomes.
    Keywords: Housing,Rental Markets,Collateral Constraints,Financial Frictions,HANK Models
    Date: 2021–05
  13. By: Francesco Flaviano Russo (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF)
    Abstract: I develop and calibrate a model for the joint determination of cultural assimilation and social segregation of a minority. Culture evolves as a consequence of a disutility from non-conformism in social matchings, while social networks form endogenously as a result of exclusion of individuals with different beliefs and norms of behavior. The model delivers idiosyncratic assimilation patterns and the persistence of some cultural traits. I propose two measures of cultural assimilation, one for spatial comparisons and a second to assess assimilation over time. The model implies that cultural assimilation is weaker in pluralistic and denser societies, and it is not influenced by the minority share. Social segregation increases with social density and with the minority share, and it is higher for culturally more distant minorities. I compute both assimilation measures for a cross-section of European countries and show that the model is able to match the empirical evidence on assimilation.
    Keywords: Culture, Distance, Evolution.
    JEL: J15 Z10
    Date: 2021–06–08
  14. By: KUTSUZAWA Ryuji; AKAI Nobuo; TAKEMOTO Toru
    Abstract: This paper makes an attempt to estimate the effect of different levels of urban compactness on travelling distance and time for various means of transportation, such as on foot, public transportation, or by car, in the compact cities where population is concentrated in the center of the cities. The travelling distance is shorter in the cities with high compactness where the residents are concentrated in the center of cites, because the scale of the urban area of the cities is smaller, and, as a result, the travelling time is longer where the means of transportation is public transportation or on foot, while the travelling time by car is smaller, and it is expected that urban compactness eventually contributes to maintaining the health of residents, and reducing both energy consumption and the environmental burden. In this case, the level of urban compactness is an endogenous variable, which is influenced by the public transportation networks such as rail or bus, and the estimation by Ordinary Least Square (OLS) analysis might be biased by endogeneity. In addition, the effect of the level of urban compactness on the travelling time for various means of transportation may be different depending on age, sex, occupation and form of employment. Therefore, we estimate the effect of "Normalized Standard Distance" (NSD), the indicator of the effect of urban compactness on the travelling distance and travelling time for various means of transportation, including on foot, public transportation (railroad, bus) or car by using instrumental variables for extracting the endogeneity bias. We also estimate effects of NSD on the travelling distance and time, focusing on age, sex, occupation and form of employment.
    Date: 2021–05
  15. By: Börjesson, Maria (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)); Asplund, Disa (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)); Hamilton, Carl (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI))
    Abstract: We simulate the external costs from road transport in a 2040 scenario where all gasoline vehicles are replaced by EV’s, and we do this for the densest regions of Sweden with a similar degree of urbanization to many other European countries, including cities, suburbs, towns and rural areas. We analyse the optimal kilometre tax based on three motives for taxing use and ownership of EVs: internalizing external cost, cost recovery of the public spending on the road sector, and fiscal taxation for raising revenue over and above what is justified by the two previous principles. We conclude that the optimal Pigouvian tax will be too low to justify the cost of a nationwide GPS-based kilometre tax for many years ahead, for which enforcement would drive the cost. Taxes collected based on roadside equipment systems in the big cities and surrounding highways would be a substantially cheaper way of internalizing most of the congestion cost. A shift from fuel taxes to national congestion taxes would, however, imply a large transfer of resources from the biggest city or cities to the rest of the country, where most of the kilometres are driven
    Keywords: Kilometre tax; Milage tax; Congestion charges; Equity; Infrastructure investments; Electric cars; Fiscal taxes; Benefit principle
    JEL: R12 R41 R42
    Date: 2021–06–07
  16. By: Tamás Keller (Computational Social Science - Research Center for Educational and Network Studies, Centre for Social Sciences Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies TÁRKI Social Research Institute, Budapest); Károly Takács (The Institute for Analytical Sociology (IAS), Linköping University Computational Social Science - Research Center for Educational and Network Studies, Centre for Social Sciences); Felix Elwert (Department of Sociology & Department of Biostatistics and Medical Informatics, University of Wisconsin-Madison)
    Abstract: High school track choice determines college access in many countries. We hypothesize that some qualified students avoid the college-bound track simply because they overestimate admission requirements. To test this hypothesis, we designed a randomized field experiment that communicated the admission standards of local secondary schools on the academic track to students in Hungary before the application deadline. We targeted the subset of students (“seeds”) who occupied the most central position in the classroom-social networks, aiming to detect both direct effects on the track choice of targeted seeds and spillover effects on their untreated peers. We found neither a direct effect nor a spillover effect on students’ applications or admissions on average. Further analyses, however, revealed theoretically plausible heterogeneity in the direct causal effect of the intervention on the track choice of targeted seeds. Providing information about admission standards increased applications and admissions to secondary schools on the academic track among seeds who had a pre-existing interest in the academic track but were unsure of their chances of admission. This demonstrates that publicizing admissions standards can set students on a more ambitious educational trajectory. We discuss implications for theory and policy.
    Keywords: High school track choice; randomized field experiment; educational aspirations; spillover effect; Hungary.
    JEL: C93 I20 D91 J24
    Date: 2021–06
  17. By: Grossmann, Volker; Larin, Benjamin (University of St. Gallen); Steger, Thomas M.
    Abstract: The housing wealth-to-income ratio has been increasing in most developed economies since the 1950s. We provide a novel theory to explain this long-term pattern. We show analytically that house prices grow in the steady state if i) the housing sector is more land-intensive than the non-housing sector. Despite growing house prices and housing wealth, the housing wealth-to income ratio is constant in steady state. We hence study the dynamics in the housing wealth-to-income ratio by computing transitions. The model is calibrated separately to the US, UK, France, and Germany. On average, we replicate 89 percent of the observed increase in the housing wealth-to-income ratio. The key for replicating the data is the differentiation between residential land as a non-reproducible factor and residential structure as reproducible factor. The transition process from the calibrated model points to two driving forces of an increasing housing wealth-to-income ratio: i) A long-lasting construction boom that brought about a pronounced build-up in the stock of structures and ii) an increase in the demand for residential land that resulted in surging residential land prices.
    Keywords: Housing Wealth; Economie Growth; Wealth-to-Income Ratio; House Price; Land Price
    JEL: E10 E20 O40
    Date: 2021–06–11
  18. By: Cheshire, Paul; Hilber, Christian A. L.
    Abstract: England’s system of property taxes is in urgent need of reform. Council Tax, devised in a hurry to resolve political difficulties after the demise of the Poll Tax, hits those in low-value homes hardest, and bears at best only a tenuous relationship to today’s house prices. Stamp Duty acts as a tax on moving house, slowing the housing market and making it harder for people to find the right home for them. This report presents the various options to reform the England’s property taxes, assessing them against both economic and political criteria. It concludes by setting out a new approach to taxing English property to mitigate the regressiveness and distortions of the current system, and help achieve government aims of levelling up and delivering net zero.
    JEL: E6
    Date: 2021–05–01
  19. By: Lisa Barrow; Lauren Sartain
    Abstract: In 2017, Chicago Public Schools adopted an online universal application system for all high schools with the hope of providing more equitable access to high-performance schools. Despite the new system, Black students and students living in low-socioeconomic status (SES) neighborhoods remained less likely than their peers to enroll in a high-performance high school. In this paper, we characterize various constraints that students and families may face in enrolling in a high-performance high school including eligibility to programs based on prior academic achievement, distance from high-performance options, and neighborhood and elementary school resources. After adjusting for differences in these access factors, we find the gap between Black and Latinx students’ likelihood of enrolling in a high-performing high school is reduced by about 80 percent. We find a similarly large reduction in the enrollment gap between students from low- and middle-SES neighborhoods after adjusting for eligibility and distance factors. These findings have implications for policies that may help equalize access to high-performance schools through changes to eligibility requirements and improved transportation options.
    Keywords: school choice; secondary school; school access; inequality; equality of opportunity
    JEL: I21 I24
    Date: 2020–12–04
  20. By: Bruce D. Meyer; Angela Wyse; Alexa Grunwaldt; Carla Medalia; Derek Wu
    Abstract: Official poverty statistics and even the extreme poverty literature largely ignore people experiencing homelessness. In this paper, we examine the characteristics, labor market attachment, geographic mobility, earnings, and safety net utilization of this population in order to understand their economic well-being. This paper is the first to examine these outcomes at the national level using administrative data on income and government program receipt. It is part of the Comprehensive Income Dataset project, which combines household survey data with administrative records to improve estimates of income and related statistics. Specifically, we use restricted microdata from the 2010 Decennial Census, which enumerates both sheltered and unsheltered homeless people, the 2006-2016 American Community Survey (ACS), which surveys sheltered homeless people, and longitudinal shelter-use data from several major U.S. cities. We link these data to longitudinal administrative tax records as well as administrative data on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), veterans’ benefits, Medicare, Medicaid, housing assistance, and mortality. Our approach benefits from large samples that offer a guide to national homelessness patterns and allow us to compare estimates between data sources, including the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)’s point-in-time (PIT) counts. By shedding light on issues of data linkage and survey coverage among homeless people, this paper contributes to efforts to better incorporate this hard-to-survey population into income and poverty estimates.
    JEL: J0 R0
    Date: 2021–05
  21. By: Isaac Otoo; Michael Danquah
    Abstract: In this paper, we estimate the efficiency of Metropolitan, Municipal, and District Assemblies (MMDAs) in Ghana, and investigate the impact of fiscal decentralization on the efficiency of local public goods and services delivery by MMDAs. Using data from composite budgets of all 216 MMDAs, we employ both nonparametric and parametric frontier methods to carry out the study.
    Keywords: Fiscal decentralization, Efficiency, Local government, Frontier methods, Ghana
    Date: 2021
  22. By: Daniel Fehrle (University of Augsburg, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: To which extent do equity and housing hedge against inflation? Despite an extensive literature, there is only little consensus. This paper presents new evidence from the Jordà -Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database, which covers return rates on housing and equity as well as consumer price indices of 16 developed countries from 1870 - 2015. The results depend on the time horizon and period considered. Within one, five, and ten years housing hedges, at least partly, against inflation and the hedge has been better in the post-war period. In the long run housing provides an excessive hedge in the whole sample and a perfect hedge in the post-war period. Equity provides no hedge within one-year in the whole sample period and the returns tend to decrease with inflation in the post-war period. The hedge improves slightly with a longer time horizon and is perfect in the long run in the post-war period. Thus, housing is, at least weakly, superior in hedging against inflation. The results are robust to a non-housing consumption price index and an asset price appreciation approach.
    Keywords: hedge, inflation, stocks, real estate, panel cointegration
    JEL: C22 C23 E31 E44 G11 N10
    Date: 2021–06
  23. By: Colin Green (Deparmtent of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology); Jon Marius Vaag Iversen (NTNU Social Research, Centre for Economic Research)
    Abstract: Increases in immigration raise a range of challenges for schools. Existing research primarily investigates the impact of immigrants on native test scores and demonstrates mixed results. Using Norwegian register data and narrow within-school, within-family comparisons, we demonstrate negative effects of refugees on native math performance, and no effect on English or Norwegian performance. The negative effects on mathematics are not present for other, non-refugee economic immigrants, and are concentrated amongst refugee children who themselves face the greatest educational difficulties. Our results suggest a need for targeted policy aimed at helping immigrant children most likely to face educational difficulties, and generate negative spillover effects. They also suggest caution in generalising results generated by specific immigrant, or even refugee, groups.
    Keywords: Refugees, Educational Attainment.
    JEL: J15 I21
    Date: 2021–06
  24. By: Hémet, Camille
    Abstract: This paper explores the relationship between unemployment rate and crime victimization at the neighborhood level, using data from the French victimization survey. The very local nature of the data enables me to tackle the endogenous location selection issue: once I control for the characteristics of a larger area into which household select their location, the remaining variation of observables across neighborhoods within this larger area can be considered as exogenous. The contribution of this paper to the economics of crime literature is then twofold. First, I show that, at the very local neighborhood level, unemployment rate is an important factor explaining victimization. Second, I take advantage of the precise localization of the data to compare the effect of unemployment rate in the reference neighborhood and in adjacent neighborhoods. The results support the idea that criminals are mobile across neighborhoods for more serious economic crimes, but that petty crimes and vandalism do not involve any mobility.
    Keywords: crime victimization; neighborhood effects; unemployment
    JEL: J64 K42 R23
    Date: 2020–06
  25. By: Laiqun Jin (School of Business, Ningbo University); Xiuyan Liu (School of Economics and Management, Southeast University); Sam Hak Kan Tang (Business School, The University of Western Australia)
    Abstract: Recent literature has been debating the performance of high-technology zones (HTZs) in developing countries. This paper contributes to this debate by examining how national HTZs in China affect the allocative efficiency of resources among Chinese cities as well as China’s total factor productivity (TFP) growth. This paper has two key findings: Firstly, results show that resource misallocation among cities reduces China’s TFP growth by 4.5%. In the absence of national HTZs, China’s TFP loss would have been higher by about 1.5%. Secondly, we find that China’s national HTZs improve the allocative efficiency of capital among cities by channelling capital to where there is a shortage. Interestingly, we find little evidence of productivity growth driven by technical efficiency following the establishment of HTZs. The positive effect of national HTZs on allocative efficiency can be found in cities located in the Eastern and Central regions and cities without an administrative designation.
    Keywords: High-technology zones, Misallocation of resources, Total factor productivity, China
    JEL: O11 O53
    Date: 2021
  26. By: Nicolo Maffei-Faccioli; Eugenia Vella
    Abstract: We provide empirical evidence suggesting that net migration shocks can have substantial demand effects, potentially acting like positive Keynesian supply shocks. Using monthly administrative data (2006-2019) for Germany in a structural VAR, we show that the shocks stimulate vacancies, wages, house prices, consumption, investment, net exports, and output. Unemployment falls for natives (dominant jobcreation effect), driving a decline in total unemployment, while rising for foreigners (dominant job-competition effect). The geographic origin of migrants and the education level of residents matter crucially for the transmission. Overall, the evidence implies that the policy debate should focus on redistributive strategies between natives and foreigners.
    Keywords: Migration, job creation, job competition, Keynesian supply shocks
    JEL: C11 C32 E32 F22
    Date: 2021–05–10
  27. By: Clémence Tricaud (UCLA - University of California [Los Angeles] - University of California, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR, CESifo - CESifo - Munich)
    Abstract: While central governments encourage intermunicipal cooperation to achieve economies of scale, municipalities are often reluctant to integrate. This policy brief analyses the local consequences of integration and assesses whether they help explain municipalities' resistance. I focus on the 2010 reform in France that made intermunicipal cooperation mandatory, forcing around 1,800 municipalities to enter an intermunicipal community (IC). Results first show that municipalities forced to enter an IC experienced a large increase in construction following their integration. This impact is driven by urban municipalities where the demand for housing is high and where residents are likely to oppose new construction to preserve their quality of life. Second, the study finds that rural municipalities ended up with fewer local public services, increasing the distance to public services for their residents. Only municipalities forced to integrate faced such consequences of integration. In particular, I find no evidence that municipalities that had voluntarily joined a community before the 2010 law experienced the same adverse effects of integration. Yet, both types of municipality enjoyed similar benefits of integration, in terms of better access to public transport and higher fiscal revenues. These results suggest that resisting municipalities did not oppose integration due to lower benefits, but to avoid the costs associated with increased construction for urban municipalities and with the loss of public services for rural municipalities.
    Date: 2021–05
  28. By: Wirkierman, Ariel L. (Institute of Management Studies(IMS), Goldsmiths, University of London); Ciarli, Tommaso (UNU-MERIT, and Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU), University of Sussex); Savonna, Maria (Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU), University of Sussex, and Department of Economics and Finance, Luiss University)
    Abstract: The paper provides a novel, theoretically driven map of EU regional asymmetries, based on the shares and dynamics of high-tech employment and wages, as well as the structure of inter-regional Input-Output relations at the EU NUTS-1 regional level. We use data from EUROSTAT and the EU-REGIO database to perform a trade-aware shift-share analysis coupled with a hierarchical clustering. We show that EU regions present a fractal structure of asymmetries, i.e. the emergence of core-periphery relations at progressively smaller scales, in relation to both spatial and trade dimensions. We identify regional clusters labelled 'consolidated core', 'declining core', 'emerging cities', 'declining peripheries' and 'CEE factories', and we show that there is a polarising dynamics between driving and follower clusters, drawing implications for EU cohesion policy.
    Keywords: Regional high-tech employment, Regional wage rate differentials, Cluster Analysis, European cohesion policy
    JEL: R11 O30 C38
    Date: 2021–05–17
  29. By: Gilbert, Catherine; Nasreen, Zahra; Gurran, Nicole
    Abstract: This scoping study considers whether governments in Sydney and Melbourne and select international jurisdictions (the USA and UK) consider key worker housing needs and how they support key workers to access appropriate housing.
    Date: 2021–05–26
  30. By: Lindgren Erik; Per Pettersson-Lidbom; Bjorn Tyrefors
    Abstract: In this paper, we analyze the effect of transport infrastructure investments in railways on three measures of local economic activity: real nonagricultural income, agricultural land values and population size. As a testing ground, we use data from a new historical database that includes annual panel data on approximately 2,400 Swedish geographical units, i.e., local governments, during the period 1860-1917. We use a staggered event study design that is robust to treatment effect heterogeneity. Importantly, we find extremely large reduced-form effects of having access to railways. For real nonagricultural income, the cumulative treatment effect is approximately 120% after 30 years. Therefore, this effect is 20 times larger than most reduced-form effects found in previous works on the effect of transport infrastructure on economic activity. Equally important, we also show that our reduced-form effect reflects growth rather than a reorganization of existing economic activity.
    Date: 2021–06
  31. By: Jean Bonnet (UNICAEN UFR SEGGAT - Université de Caen Normandie - UFR de Sciences Économiques, Gestion, Géographie et Aménagement des Territoires - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université, CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Eva Coll-Martínez (LEREPS - Laboratoire d'Etude et de Recherche sur l'Economie, les Politiques et les Systèmes Sociaux - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - UT2J - Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Toulouse - ENSFEA - École Nationale Supérieure de Formation de l'Enseignement Agricole de Toulouse-Auzeville); Patricia Renou-Maissant (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Since the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals by the United Nations, sustainability has been a key priority for European governments. While previous studies have investigated the associations between indicators of sustainable development, few have directly considered a multidimensional approach to assess and compare the performance of regions in terms of sustainable development. As such, a comprehensive assessment of regional sustainable performance is thus still needed. In this paper, the concept of sustainability relies on the construction of six composite indices (environment and natural resources, energy transition, sustainable mobility, economic dynamism, social cohesion and solidarity, and governance and citizenship) with the aim to provide an evaluation framework for empirically comparing the performance of the 96 metropolitan French Departments. Each dimension is explored by spatial autocorrelation analysis and Hierarchical Ascending Classification (HAC) to classify French Departments providing five different regional profiles of sustainable development. The findings make it possible to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the departments in the implementation of sustainable development. This approach provides the bases for a systematic monitoring of sustainable development policies at the regional scale.
    Keywords: sustainable development,composite index,cluster analysis,spatial autocorrelation analysis,France
    Date: 2021–01
  32. By: Laura Spierdijk; Pieter IJtsma; Sherrill Shaffer
    Abstract: The economic literature has largely ignored the existence of global common factors and local spatial dependence in the assessment of the real effects of U.S. banking deregulation. Motivated by consistency concerns, this study uses spatial econometric models with common factors to analyze the impact of U.S. banking deregulation on county-level economic growth during the 1970–2000 period. We estimate the direct effects of banking deregulation, as well as the size, geographic scope and source of any spatial spillovers. Statistically and economically significant growth effects were experienced by counties in states that deregulated intrastate branching, but only after an initial period without any growth effects. We find no significant growth effects of interstate banking deregulation. During the later half of the sample, intrastate branching deregulation increased the average expected annual growth rates of counties in the deregulated state by about 0.5 p.p. in the long run. Local spatial dependence turns out to be a crucial feature of county-level economic growth, even after common factors are accounted for. As a result, significant spatial spillovers of intrastate branching deregulation were experienced by counties in states surrounding the deregulated state during the later half of the sample. Intrastate branching deregulation increased the average expected annual growth rates of counties adjacent to the deregulated state by about 0.2 p.p. in the long run, while the spillovers to hinterland counties in adjacent states were still about 0.05–0.1 p.p. A comparison to models that ignore common factors or local spatial dependence substantiates our consistency concerns.
    Keywords: U.S. banking deregulation, common factors, spatial autocorrelation, spatial spillovers, local economic growth
    Date: 2021–03
  33. By: Bursztyn, Leonardo; Egorov, Georgy; Enikolopov, Ruben; Petrova, Maria
    Abstract: We study the causal effect of social media on ethnic hate crimes and xenophobic attitudes in Rus- sia and the mechanisms underlying this effect, using quasi-exogenous variation in social media penetration across cities. Higher penetration of social media led to more hate crimes in cities with a high pre-existing level of nationalist sentiment. Consistent with a mechanism of coordination of crimes, the effects are stronger for crimes with multiple perpetrators. Using a national survey experiment, we also find evidence of a mechanism of persuasion: social media led individuals (especially young, male, and less-educated ones) to hold more xenophobic attitudes.
    Keywords: Hate crime; Russia; social media; Xenophobia
    JEL: D7 H0 J15
    Date: 2020–06
  34. By: Gaddis, S. Michael (UCLA); DiRago, Nicholas V.
    Abstract: Since the 1960s, social scientists, fair housing agencies, and the federal government have conducted hundreds of in-person and correspondence housing audits. Researchers use these covert experiments to make strong causal claims about difficult-to-detect behavior, such as racial, gender, and other types of discrimination. These studies have consistently uncovered discrimination in multiple stages and contexts of the housing exchange process. The housing audit literature is broad and robust, and a number of in-depth reviews already exist. In this chapter, we build on those reviews by focusing attention on emerging areas of inquiry and suggest new avenues of research pursuits. We begin by briefly reviewing the long history of housing audits including in-person HUD audits and correspondence audits of home sales and housing rentals. Next, we discuss three emerging areas of housing audit research – housing choice vouchers, short-term rentals, and roommate searches – and highlight important findings, new innovations, and areas of weakness. Finally, we conclude with a discussion about future directions of housing audits including using experiments to test for ways to reduce discrimination, using additional data to examine the mechanisms of housing discrimination, and designing modified audits to explore discrimination in other stages of housing exchange.
    Date: 2021–06–02
  35. By: Feldman, Maryann; Guy, Frederick; Iammarino, Simona; Ioramashvili, Carolin
    Abstract: Are the agglomeration economies of technology hubs augmented by a localized market for start-ups – acquisitions, and IPOs? How does this affect the ability of places outside of those hubs to foster digital startups as a tool of local economic development? We study this with a particular focus on acquisitions by the seven largest American digital platforms – Amazon, Alphabet [Google], Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Oracle and Adobe, which we call, collectively, Big Tech. We cover the years 2001-2020. We show that firms acquired by Big Tech are, disproportionately to the sectors in which they operate, concentrated in major tech clusters, and particularly in the Silicon Valley (San Francisco/San Jose). Foreign acquisitions by Big Tech also show a marked concentration in a few countries, and particular places in those countries. NASDAQ IPOs of firms in relevant sectors are similarly concentrated. Acquisition, or the less common alternative, IPO, is the second major phase of financing for a digital start up. The first phase is commonly associated with venture capital (VC), and location proximate to venture capital companies has often been seen as a motivation for locating in a tech cluster. We find, however, that neither VC funding, nor funding an investor located in the Silicon Valley, predicts either acquisition by Big Tech, or IPO. Funding by any of the VCs that helped launch the Big Tech firms, however, is strongly associated with Big Tech acquisition. This suggests an important role for social networks in both the first and second phases of financing, but not necessarily a geographical role in the first phase. We argue that the acquisition market – and its effects on both the major tech hubs and the left behind rest – depends crucially on the proprietary control of access to various digital network products. Regulation of these markets, particularly in the form of common carrier status and open standards, could achieve a considerable re-balancing.
    Keywords: tech giats; market power; start-ups; acquisitions; regional inequality
    JEL: R12
    Date: 2021–05–01
  36. By: Jan Fidrmuc (Brunel University); Martin Hulényi (Institute for Strategy and Analysis (ISA)); Olga Zajkowska (Narodowy Bank Polski)
    Abstract: We analyse the impact of EU structural and cohesion funds on economic growth of European regions using 2SLS to tackle their potential endogeneity and estimating a spatial model to account for inter-regional spillovers. We use the presence of environmentally protected areas as instruments for Cohesion Policy funds. We find that the European funds have a significant and positive effect on regional economic growth in the EU. However, there is considerable heterogeneity in the effect of Cohesion Policy across individual EU member states: the effect is stronger in the new member states, and weak or negative in the countries hit by the recent austerity measures. The inter-regional spillovers in the effect of Cohesion Policy on regional growth are found to be important: most of the effect takes place outside the recipient region rather than inside. Finally, our results also confirm the positive impact of institutional quality.
    Keywords: Regional aid; growth; environmental conservation; 2SLS; spatial.
    JEL: C21 C36 F36 E62 O11 P48
    Date: 2020
  37. By: Carillo, Mario; Jappelli, Tullio
    Abstract: We investigate the link between the 1918 Great Influenza and regional economic growth in Italy, a country in which the measures implemented by public authorities to contain the contagion were limited or ineffective. The pandemic caused about 600,000 deaths in Italy, a death rate of about 1.2%. We find evidence of a strong and significant adverse effect of the pandemic on regional growth. In particular, going from regions with the lowest mortality to those with the highest mortality is associated to a decline in per capita GDP growth of about 6.5%, which dissipated within three years. In line with this finding, we also estimate a small and transitory negative effect of the influenza on industrialization. Our estimates provide an upper bound of the adverse effect of pandemics on local economic growth in the absence of non-pharmaceutical public health interventions.
    Keywords: Great Influenza; mortality and growth; regional growth
    Date: 2020–06
  38. By: Ventura, Luigi; Ventura, Maria
    Abstract: The economic consequences of migration have become the topic of many recent contributions in theoretical and applied economics. However, only a handful of papers have dealt with the implications of migration for risk sharing. We intend to fill in this gap in the literature by exploring the effects of migration and the ensuing cultural diversity on risk sharing in receiving economies, by using data on US states in the period 2000-2015. Our empirical results strongly suggest that migration enhances risk sharing in host economies, but non monotonically so. Moreover, cultural diversity is key in this risk sharing-enhancing effect of migration.
    Keywords: Regional risk sharing, Consumption insurance, Migration, Diversity
    JEL: C23 C51 E21 F36
    Date: 2021–05
  39. By: Blanco, Hilda
    Abstract: California, like most of the country, was facing a transformation in retail before the COVID-19 epidemic. Increasing Internet shopping have ushered the closing of anchor stores, such as Macy's, Sears, as well as the closure of many regional shopping malls, which have sizable footprints, ranging from 40-100+ acres. The epidemic has accelerated these trends. This offers opportunities for the redevelopment of failing malls to address pressing needs in California, the need for housing, and for efficient transit provision for such redevelopments. This research is focused on how mall conversions can be planned and implemented in a sustainable way. The research uses a national commercial database, and available literature, to first identify a set of distressed shopping malls (10) in the four largest metropolitan areas in the state as potential sites for redevelopment, some with current plans for redevelopment and others without such plans. It then develops profiles of the 10 malls that include: size, land uses permitted, history; relevant characteristics of the city (e.g., percentage of owner-occupied housing; median income, affordable housing needs), as well as brief descriptions of the mall owner, transit access, and environmental vulnerabilities. From a review of the relevant literature on sustainable redevelopment, and taking into account the California context, the project developed sustainability criteria for assessing shopping mall redevelopment plans in the state, and applied the criteria to four cases with active redevelopment plans. A major finding is the potential that mall redevelopment plans have to meet the major social sustainability criterion—the construction of affordable housing. Comparing the affordable housing target for the city to the number of housing units planned, the study estimates the percentage of the city’s affordable housing target the city can reach with different mixes of affordable vs. market-rate housing units in the project. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Business, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Shopping mall redevelopment, mixed-use housing centers, transit-oriented development, sustainable redevelopment, affordable housing
    Date: 2021–06–01
  40. By: Fajgelbaum, Pablo; Khandelwal, Amit; Kim, Wookun; Mantovani, Cristiano; Schaal, Edouard
    Abstract: We study optimal dynamic lockdowns against Covid-19 within a commuting network. Our framework combines canonical spatial epidemiology and trade models, and is applied to cities with varying initial viral spread: Seoul, Daegu and NYC-Metro. Spatial lockdowns achieve substantially smaller income losses than uniform lockdowns, and are not easily approximated by simple centrality-based rules. In NYM and Daegu-with large initial shocks-the optimal lockdown restricts inflows to central districts before gradual relaxation, while in Seoul it imposes low temporal but large spatial variation. Actual commuting responses were too weak in central locations in Daegu and NYM, and too strong across Seoul.
    Keywords: commuting; COVID-19; General Equilibrium; lockdown; optimal policy
    JEL: C6 R38 R4
    Date: 2020–06
  41. By: Clotilde Mahé (Department of Economics and Management, Université du Luxembourg); Sergio Parra-Cely (Universidad San Francisco de Quito, Ecuador)
    Abstract: We examine empirically whether immigration affects crime in an emerging country, Ecuador. We exploit the fact that immigration flows of Venezuelans suddenly evolved from voluntary to forced, and occurred disproportionately along land borders. We use nationally representative administrative and survey data to precisely estimate an economically null effect of Venezuelan immigration on property and violent crime. We also show that natives are more likely to believe that immigration worsens the economy, despite clear evidence of negative labour market impact due to recent Venezuelan inflows. Results confirm that fears over immigration and crime are not necessarily supported by facts.
    Keywords: Immigration, Crime, Ecuador, Venezuela, Latin America.
    JEL: F22 K42
    Date: 2021
  42. By: Gałecka-Burdziak, Ewa; Góra, Marek; Jessen, Jonas; Jessen, Robin; Kluve, Jochen
    Abstract: We quantify labour market effects of changes in the potential benefit duration (PBD) in Poland. Individual workers' PBD depends on the county unemployment rate relative to the national average - 12 months of PBD above a cut-off of 125 per cent and 6 months below. This cut-off shifted from 125 to 150 per cent in a 2009 reform. We utilize i) the natural experiment of the reform and ii) the sharp discontinuity generated by the cut-offs to estimate effects of shortening the PBD. Our administrative data cover unemployment spells for prime age workers during the years 2006-2018. A one-month shorter PBD decreases average benefit duration by 0.5 months and average unemployment duration by 0.4 months. The PBD reduction by six months increased the job finding rate within the first 9 months by 6 percentage points. Using the stock of unemployed per county, we find evidence for positive aggregate employment effects.
    Keywords: Unemployment benefits,extended benefits,spell duration
    JEL: H55 J20 J65
    Date: 2021
  43. By: Jacelly C. Cespedes; Carlos R. Parra; Clemens Sialm
    Abstract: Mortgage cramdown enabled bankruptcy judges to discharge the underwater portion of a mortgage during Chapter 13 bankruptcy before the Supreme Court disallowed this practice in 1993. We exploit the random assignment of cases to judges to quantify the ex-post effects of Chapter 13 bankruptcy over the period from 1989 to 1993. We find that a successful Chapter 13 filing in a cramdown court substantially decreases the five-year foreclosure rate, the propensity to move, and the crime rate. Our results suggest that principal write-down considerably reduces homeowner’s distress.
    JEL: G21 G28 G41 G51 H31 H73 K25 K35
    Date: 2021–06
  44. By: Jaller, Miguel; Rodier, Caroline; Zhang, Michael; Lin, Huachao; Lewis, Kathryn
    Abstract: There is a need to optimally allocate curb space-one of the scarcest resources in urban areas-to the different and growing needs of passenger and freight transport. Although there are plenty of linear miles of curbside space in every city, the growing adoption of ride-hailing services and the rise of e-commerce with its residential deliveries, and the increased number of micro-mobility services, have increased pressure on the already saturated transportation system. Traditional curbside planning strategies have relied on land-use based demand estimates to allocate access priority to the curb (e.g., pedestrian and transit for residential areas, commercial vehicles for commercial and industrial zones). In some locales, new guidelines provide ideas on flexible curbside management, but lack the systems to gather and analyze the data, and optimally and dynamically allocate the space to the different users and needs. This study conducted a comprehensive literature review on several topics related to curb space management, discussing various users (e.g., pedestrians, bicycles, transit, taxis, and commercial freight vehicles), summarizing different experiences, and focusing the discussion on Complete Street strategies. Moreover, the authors reviewed the academic literature on curbside and parking data collection, and simulation and optimization techniques. Considering a case study around the downtown area in San Francisco, the authors evaluated the performance of the system with respect to a number of parking behavior scenarios. In doing so, the authors developed a parking simulation in SUMO following a set of parking behaviors (e.g., parking search, parking with off-street parking information availability, double-parking). These scenarios were tested in three different (land use-based) sub-study areas representing residential, commercial and mixed-use. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Parking, curbside management, simulation, congestion, emissions, travel distances
    Date: 2021–06–01
  45. By: Mario J. Crucini; Oscar O'Flaherty
    Abstract: State and local governments throughout the United States attempted to mitigate the spread of Covid-19 using stay-at-home orders to limit social interactions and mobility. We study the economic impact of these orders and their optimal implementation in a fiscal union. Using an event study framework, we find that stay-at-home orders caused a 4 percentage point decrease in consumer spending and hours worked. These estimates suggest a $10 billion decrease in spending and $15 billion in lost earnings. We then develop an economic SIR model with multiple locations to study the optimal implementation of stay-at-home orders. From a national welfare perspective, the model suggests that it is optimal for locations with higher infection rates to set stricter mitigation policies. This occurs as a common, national policy is too restrictive for the economies of mildly infected areas and causes greater declines in consumption and hours worked than are optimal.
    Keywords: COVID-19, infection rates, state orders, treatment effect
    Date: 2021–04
  46. By: Steves, Alexander; Cho, Clare; Metin, Çakır; Kong, Xiangwen; Boland, Michael
    Abstract: In this report, we examine the landscape of food retailers across the contiguous United States, with a focus on rural America and grocery stores. Changes in food retailers have raised concerns about food access and have led Federal policymakers to introduce several pieces of legislation to improve access to healthy foods, such as the Healthy Food Financing Initiative. We use the National Establishment Time Series (NETS) dataset to create a more complete picture of food retailers, while using store-level information to examine sales and employment, and to distinguish between national, regional, and local chains and single location stores. We find that in rural and urban nonmetro counties, grocery stores outnumbered other forms of food retailers, but that grocery stores declined from 1990 to 2015 while dollar stores and supercenters increased steadily. We also found that although single location grocery stores outnumbered chains in 2015, they have been decreasing throughout this period, resulting in single location grocery stores as a share of food retailers decreasing from 87 to 82 percent.
    Keywords: Community/Rural/Urban Development, Industrial Organization, Marketing, Public Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2021–06–02
  47. By: De Koning, Kees
    Abstract: In a previous paper: “Quantitative Easing Home Equity: an Alternative Economic Management Tool” (MPRA Paper 106528), the writer did analyze some of the Great Recession’s experiences for different groups of U.S. households. In Q4 2005, the home equity level stood at $14.4 trillion for all households. As a result of the Great Recession this level dropped to $8.2 trillion by Q1 2012. This loss in wealth level lasted the longest for the bottom 50% of households. For this group it took over 10 years which was nearly 5 years longer than for the two household groups making up the top 50% of households. The latter groups took five years to get back to the income and wealth levels as assessed in 2007. Why was losing $6.2 trillion in home equity savings over the period Q4 2005 to Q1 2012 such a disaster? The first aspect is the value of savings made and the recovery period to earn back such savings losses. A savings loss of 43% on home values was an extreme percentage of losses, mainly due to two factors. The first was the reinforcement factor. When doubts crept into the mortgage backed securities markets in 2007, the snowball started rolling. Banks and other financial companies as well as some households were over extended. Defaults started to go up and the mood in the markets turned from overly optimistic to severely negative. Foreclosure levels were racing up and unemployment levels increased rapidly. The second aspect was the relationship between house prices and the home equity savings levels embedded in such home values. A home is for nearly all households a necessity rather than a luxury. If a household cannot afford to buy outright, a mortgage is often needed as the household will still need a place to live in. The downward housing prices –from a U.S. average of $257,400 in Q1 2007 to the bottom of $208,400 in Q1 2009 and back to $258,400 by Q1 2013 brought on a misery for many U.S. households. This paper will attempt to show that there can be a different solution to such market upheaval: a reversal method that helps households to spend more of their home equity level when needed. The household’s macro economic motto could be: “Save in good times and spend from your home equity in economic downturns”. To make it a success, a system needs to be developed to make such spending possible.
    Keywords: U.S.Great Recession period; home equity in U.S.; home mortgage levels, home wealth levels; a household help to buy scheme based on home equity
    JEL: E2 E21 E24 E4 E42 E44 E5 E6
    Date: 2021–06–09
  48. By: Patricia Palffy; Patrick Lehnert; Uschi Backes-Gellner
    Abstract: The authors analyze the relationship between social gender norms and the occupational choices of adolescents by combining information about regional votes on a constitutional amendment on gender equality with job application data from a large job board for vocational education and training apprenticeships. Results show that adolescent males in regions with stronger traditional social gender norms are significantly more likely to apply for gender-typical occupations. This finding does not hold for adolescent females, suggesting that males align their occupational choices more strongly with social gender norms than females. Additional analyses reveal that the social gender norms in a region are related to the costs that adolescents living in this region are willing to bear for commuting to a firm where they receive apprenticeship training in either a gender-typical or gender-atypical occupation. The results underscore the importance of policies that factor in social gender norms and encourage not only adolescent females, but also adolescent males to make non-traditional occupational choices.
    Keywords: social norms, occupational choice, gender typicality, occupational gender segregation
    JEL: J24 J16 I24 M59
    Date: 2021–06
  49. By: Facchini, Giovanni; Knight, Brian; Testa, Cecilia
    Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between the franchise and law enforcement practices using evidence from the Voting Rights Act (VRA) of 1965. We find that, following the VRA, black arrest rates fell in counties that were both covered by the legislation and had a large number of newly enfranchised black voters. We uncover no corresponding patterns for white arrest rates. The reduction in black arrest rates is driven by less serious offenses, for which police might have more enforcement discretion. Importantly, our results are driven by arrests carried out by sheriffs - who are always elected. While there are no corresponding changes for municipal police chiefs in aggregate, we do find similar patterns in covered counties with elected rather than appointed chiefs. We also show that our findings cannot be rationalized by alternative explanations, such as differences in collective bargaining, changes in the underlying propensity to commit crimes, responses to changes in policing practices, and changes in the suppression of civil right protests. Taken together, these results document that voting rights, when combined with elected, rather than appointed, chief law enforcement officers, can lead to improved treatment of minority groups by police.
    Date: 2020–06
  50. By: Elisa Giannone; Nuno Paixao; Xinle Pang
    Abstract: How does interconnectedness affect the course of a pandemic? What are the optimal within- and between-state containment policies? We embed a spatial SIR model into a multi-sector quantitative trade model. We calibrate it to US states and the COVID-19 pandemic and find that interconnectedness increases the death toll by 146,200 lives. A local within-state containment policy minimizes welfare losses relative to a national policy or to one that reduces mobility between states. The optimal policy combines local within- and between-state restrictions and saves 289,300 lives. This optimal policy induces a peak reduction in mobility of 25.97% that saves approximately 23% more lives. Different timing of policies across states is key to minimize losses. States like South Carolina might have imposed internal lockdowns too early but travel restrictions too late.
    Keywords: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19); Economic models; Regional economic developments
    JEL: F1 H0 I1 R1
    Date: 2021–06
  51. By: Edward J. Oughton
    Abstract: Space weather is a collective term for different solar or space phenomena that can detrimentally affect technology. However, current understanding of space weather hazards is still relatively embryonic in comparison to terrestrial natural hazards such as hurricanes or earthquakes. Indeed, certain types of space weather such as large Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are an archetypal example of a low probability, high severity hazard. Few major events, short time-series data and a lack of consensus regarding the potential impacts on critical infrastructure have hampered the economic impact assessment of space weather. Yet, space weather has the potential to disrupt a wide range of Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) systems including electricity transmission, satellite communications and positioning, aviation and rail transportation. Recently there has been growing interest in these potential economic and societal impacts. Estimates range from millions of dollars of equipment damage from the Quebec 1989 event, to some analysts reporting billions of lost dollars in the wider economy from potential future disaster scenarios. Hence, this provides motivation for this article which tracks the origin and development of the socio-economic evaluation of space weather, from 1989 to 2017, and articulates future research directions for the field.
    Date: 2021–06
  52. By: Desmet, Klaus; Wacziarg, Romain
    Abstract: We analyze the correlates of COVID-19 cases and deaths across US counties. We consider a wide range of correlates - population density, public transportation, age structure, nursing home residents, connectedness to source countries, etc. - finding that these variables are important predictors of variation in disease severity. Many of the effects are persistent - even increasing - through time. We also show that there are fewer deaths and cases in counties where Donald Trump received a high share of the vote in 2016, partly explaining the emerging political divide over lockdown and reopening policies, but that this correlation is reversed when controlling for shares of minority groups. The patterns we identify are meant to improve our understanding of the drivers of the spread of COVID-19, with an eye toward helping policymakers design responses that are sensitive to the specificities of different locations.
    Keywords: COVID-19; Determinants; spatial variation; US counties
    JEL: I18 R1
    Date: 2020–06
  53. By: Azim Shariff (Unknown); Jean-François Bonnefon (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Iyad Rahwan (Unknown)
    Abstract: Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) promise of a multi-trillion-dollar industry that revolutionizes transportation safety and convenience depends as much on overcoming the psychological barriers to their widespread use as the technological and legal challenges. The first AV-related traffic fatalities have pushed manufacturers and regulators towards decisions about how mature AV technology should be before the cars are rolled out in large numbers. We discuss the psychological factors underlying the question of how safe AVs need to be to compel consumers away from relying on the abilities of human drivers. For consumers, how safe is safe enough? Three preregistered studies (N = 4,566) reveal that the established psychological biases of algorithm aversion and the better-than-average effect leave consumers averse to adopting AVs unless the cars meet extremely potentially unrealistically high safety standards. Moreover, these biases prove stubbornly hard to overcome, and risk substantially delaying the adoption of life-saving autonomous driving technology. We end by proposing that, from a psychological perspective, the emphasis AV advocates have put on safety may be misplaced.
    Keywords: autonomous vehicles,automation,algorithm aversion,safety,illusory superiority
    Date: 2021–05
  54. By: Marcus Dockerty; Antonis Kotidis; Ilknur Zer
    Abstract: Did people reduce their social interactions as a result of the pandemic, restrictive lockdown policies, or both? What was the impact of reduced social interactions on local employment? Importantly, why did unemployment spike during the first wave of the pandemic, but gradually decline thereafter, even though the outbreak was much more severe during the second wave? In this note, we attempt to answer these questions by exploiting newly available data on hours worked among small firms at the industry-county-state-week level.
    Date: 2021–05–24
  55. By: Jan Fagerberg (TIK, University of Oslo); Martin Srholec (CERGE-EI, a joint workplace of Charles University and the Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences)
    Abstract: What determines the differences in economic performance across European regions? In addressing this question, this paper takes inspiration from two different approaches. One approach highlights the role of capability-building, of a technological or social nature, while another perspective emphasizes the potential advantages of proximity and, hence, a relatively diversified economic structure, for regional economic performance. The paper argues that the impacts of capability-building and diversification on regional economic development need to be assessed jointly. Using information for 261 regions at NUTS2 level in 27 European countries in the 2000s, novel data sources are exploited to construct measures of technological and social capabilities, which are combined with indicators of related and unrelated variety in the analysis of regional economic dynamics. The results suggest that capability-building play a key role in regional economic development while the results for diversification are more mixed.
    Date: 2021–06
  56. By: Michael Byrne (School of Social Policy, Social Work and Social Justice, University College Dublin); Juliana Sassi (Department of Geography, Maynooth University)
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has had impacts across housing systems; indeed there is scarcely any aspect of housing which has remained untouched. Housing has been central to public health responses since March 2020 and the events of the past year have given a new urgency to 'home' as a refuge, shelter and place of safety. This research examines the experiences of tenants in the Irish private rental sector during the pandemic. In particular, it asks to what extent tenants experienced their dwellings as 'homes' and identifies the factors which undermine the experience of home. It also looks at the moratorium on evictions in terms of how it impacted tenants' experience of 'secure occupancy'. The research draws on 35 qualitative interviews carried out in Spring 2021. The research finds that many tenants did not enjoy access to a secure home during the COVID-19 pandemic. The main reasons for this are the absence of secure occupancy, poor quality dwellings, and the inability to control or personalise dwellings. The research also finds that the blanket eviction ban, while successful in terms of its immediate objectives, had a limited impact on tenants' experience of security. This is due to three factors: the temporary nature of the ban; the belief among some tenants that landlords may not comply with the legislation; and the way in which the relationship between landlord and tenant impacts tenants' experiences. The research raises important questions about tenure inequality (i.e. the ways in which access to and experience of home is particularly problematic for PRS tenants) during, and beyond, the COVID-19 pandemic.
    Keywords: Private rental sector, COVID-19, housing, tenure inequality
    Date: 2021–03–11
  57. By: Holt, Stephen B (University at Albany, SUNY); Vinopal, Katie M.
    Abstract: Time spent waiting for services represents unproductive time imposed on individuals trying to fulfill basic needs. While qualitative and ethnographic work has found that income disparities also translate into disparities in time kept waiting for services, little evidence exists to confirm the scale and extent of socioeconomic differences in waiting time. We use time diary data from the nationally representative American Time Use Survey (ATUS) to estimate the difference between high- and low-income people in time spent waiting for basic services. We find that, relative to high-income people, low-income people are 3 percentage-points more likely to spend time waiting on an average day and their waiting spells are 12 minutes longer on average. The income gap in waiting time cannot be explained by differences in family obligations, demographics, education, work time, or travel time. Further, we find that high-income Black people experience the same higher average wait times as low-income people regardless of race. Our results suggest socioeconomic and racial inequalities in neighborhood quality, work schedule flexibility, and access to services exacerbate inequality in daily quality of life and the availability of productive time.
    Date: 2021–06–02

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