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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Fouka, Vasiliki (Stanford University); Mazumder, Soumyajit (Harvard University); Tabellini, Marco (Harvard Business School) |
| Abstract: | How does the arrival of a new minority group affect the social acceptance and outcomes of existing minorities? We study this question in the context of the First Great Migration. Between 1915 and 1930, 1.5 million African Americans moved from the US South to Northern urban centers, which were home to millions of European immigrants arrived in previous decades. We formalize and empirically test the hypothesis that the inflows of Black Americans changed perceptions of outgroup distance among native-born whites, reducing the barriers to the social integration of European immigrants. Predicting Black in-migration with a version of the shift-share instrument, we find that immigrants living in areas that received more Black migrants experienced higher assimilation along a range of outcomes, such as naturalization rates and intermarriages with native-born spouses. Evidence from the historical press and patterns of heterogeneity across immigrant nationalities provide additional support to the role of shifting perceptions of the white majority. |
| Keywords: | immigration, assimilation, Great Migration, race, group identity |
| JEL: | J11 J15 N32 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14371&r= |
| By: | Montebruno, Piero; Silva, Olmo; Szumilo, Nikodem |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of borrower protection on mortgage and housing demand. We focus on variation in the likelihood that a house is repossessed – conditional on the mortgage being in arrears and taken to court – coming from heterogeneity in the severity of judges that adjudicate on repossession cases in England and Wales. We develop a simple theoretical framework that shows that too much borrower protection restricts supply, while not enough restricts demand. Market outcomes depend on which side dominates. To test the predictions of our model, we exploit exogenous spatial variation in repossession risk created by the boundaries of courts’ catchment areas. In our setting, housing market characteristics, borrower attributes and mortgage rates do not change discontinuously across these boundaries – allowing us to isolate the causal effects of severity. We find that the impact of severity is negative on both mortgage sizes and house prices. This pattern suggests that judges in our sample are too strict and that demand determines market outcomes. Furthermore, we find that our measure of borrower protection does not react to market conditions – causing frictions in credit and housing markets. |
| Keywords: | house repossessions; mortgages; house prices; housing demand; mortgage default |
| JEL: | G21 R21 |
| Date: | 2021–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110474&r= |
| By: | Elizabeth Ananat; Shihe Fu; Stephen Ross |
| Abstract: | Racial social isolation within and across workplaces may reduce firm productivity. We provide descriptive evidence that African-Americans feel socially isolated from Whites. To test whether isolation affects productivity, we estimate models of Total Factor Productivity for manufacturing firms allowing returns to local area concentrations of economic activity and human capital spillovers to vary with the racial and ethnic composition of both the establishment and the local area employment. Higher own-race exposure for establishment workers to workers at surrounding establishments strengthens the relationship between productivity and both employment density and concentrations of college educated workers. Effects for human capital spillovers are largest for firms with more patents and more research and development spending. Looming demographic changes suggest that this drag on productivity may increase over time. |
| JEL: | J15 J24 L11 R12 R23 R32 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28847&r= |
| By: | Anastasiou, Dimitrios; Kapopoulos, Panayotis |
| Abstract: | Constructing a financial stress index, we examine the relationship between financial stability and real estate price fluctuation in Greece, whose experience during the last two decades makes it an ideal laboratory. Employing a VAR and a Bayesian VAR model, we demonstrate the ability of this measure to explain the phases of the housing market (in terms of both residential prices and investment). We find that an adverse shock in financial stability has prolonged adverse effects in the Greek real estate market. Our findings also suggest that residential prices are more sensitive to changes in financial stress conditions than residential investment. |
| Keywords: | House prices; residential investment; financial stability; uncertainty |
| JEL: | C10 C22 E0 E44 E6 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:107833&r= |
| By: | Berliant, Marcus |
| Abstract: | We examine the fine microstructure of commuting in a game-theoretic setting with a continuum of commuters. Commuters' home and work locations can be heterogeneous. A commuter transport network is exogenous. Traffic speed is determined by link capacity and by local congestion at a time and place along a link, where local congestion at a time and place is endogenous. The model can be reinterpreted to apply to congestion on the internet. We find sufficient conditions for existence of equilibrium, that multiple equilibria are ubiquitous, and that the welfare properties of morning and evening commute equilibria differ on a generalization of a directed tree. |
| Keywords: | Commuting; Internet traffic; Congestion externality; Efficient Nash equilibrium |
| JEL: | L86 R41 |
| Date: | 2021–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:107937&r= |
| By: | Liu, Shiqin; Higgs, Carl; Arundel, Jonathan; Boeing, Geoff (Northeastern University); Cerdera, Nicholas; Moctezuma, David; Cerin, Ester; Adlakha, Deepti; Lowe, Melanie; Giles-Corti, Billie |
| Abstract: | Pedestrian accessibility is an important factor in urban transport and land use policy and critical for creating healthy, sustainable cities. Developing and evaluating indicators measuring inequalities in pedestrian accessibility can help planners and policymakers benchmark and monitor the progress of city planning interventions. However, measuring and assessing indicators of urban design and transport features at high resolution worldwide to enable city comparisons is challenging due to limited availability of official, high quality, and comparable spatial data, as well as spatial analysis tools offering customizable frameworks for indicator construction and analysis. To address these challenges, this study develops an open source software framework to construct pedestrian accessibility indicators for cities using open and consistent data. It presents a generalized method to consistently measure pedestrian accessibility at high resolution and spatially aggregated scale, to allow for both within- and between-city analyses. The open source and open data methods developed in this study can be extended to other cities worldwide to support local planning and policymaking. The software is made publicly available for reuse in an open repository. |
| Date: | 2021–05–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:cua35&r= |
| By: | Andrew E. Clark (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Luis Diaz-Serrano (Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Universidad Antonio de Nebrija) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides one of the first testsof adaptation tothe complete set ofresidential transitions. We use long-run SOEP panel data and consider the impact of all housing transitions, whether or not they involvea change in housing tenureor geographical movement, on both life satisfaction and housing satisfaction. Controlling for individual characteristics and housing quality, some residential transitionsaffect life satisfactiononly little, while all transitions have a significant effect on housing satisfaction. This latter is particularly large for renters who become homeowners and move geographically,and for renters who move without changing tenure status. Regarding housing satisfaction, we find very little evidence of adaptation even after five years. Losing homeowner status is the only transition that produces lower housing satisfaction, and here the effect seems to become even more negative over time. |
| Keywords: | Housing,Adaptation,well-being,SOEP |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-03230851&r= |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | School systems across the world are working to make the classroom more inclusive for all children, regardless of their origin and capacities, so that they have equal opportunities for quality learning. It has become essential to integrate students with special needs into mainstream formal education and they are, increasingly, enrolled in regular schools and classes in primary education. Inclusive classrooms exert more and particular demands on teachers, however. TALIS 2018 data alerts us to the pressing need to support teachers with students with special needs in primary schools. Support for students with special needs is a policy priority for principals and teachers in primary schools. Modifying lessons to support students with special needs is a particular cause of stress for teachers. And a significant proportion of teachers request further training in teaching children with special needs. |
| Keywords: | inclusive classrooms, special needs, teachers, teaching |
| Date: | 2021–05–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaah:40-en&r= |
| By: | Glaeser, Edward L; Gorback, Caitlin; Redding, Stephen J. |
| Abstract: | How effective are restrictions on geographic mobility in limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic? Using zip code data for Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, New York (NYC), and Philadelphia, we estimate that total COVID-19 cases per capita decrease on average by approximately 20 percent for every ten percentage point fall in mobility between February and May 2020. To address endogeneity concerns, we instrument for travel by the share of workers in remote work friendly occupations, and find a somewhat larger average decline of COVID-19 cases per capita of 27 percent. Using weekly data by zip code for NYC and a panel data specification including week and zip code fixed effects, we estimate a similar average decline of around 17 percent, which becomes larger when we measure mobility using NYC turnstile data rather than cellphone data. We find substantial heterogeneity across both space and over time, with stronger effects for NYC, Boston and Philadelphia than for Atlanta and Chicago, and the largest estimated coefficients for NYC in the early stages of the pandemic. |
| Keywords: | Cities; COVID-19; mobility |
| JEL: | H12 I12 J17 R41 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15050&r= |
| By: | Roxana Manea; Patrizio Piraino; Martina Viarengo |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between housing inequality and crime in South Africa. We create a novel panel dataset combining information on crimes at the police station level with census data. We find that housing inequality explains a significant share of the variation in both property and violent crimes, net of spillover effects, time and district fixed effects. An increase of onestandard deviation in housing inequality explains between 9 and 13 percent of crime increases. Additionally, we suggest that a prominent post-apartheid housing program for low-income South Africans helped to reduce inequality and violent crimes. Together, these findings suggest the important role that equality in housing conditions can play in the reduction of crime in an emerging economy context. |
| Keywords: | Inequality; Crime; Economic Development. |
| Date: | 2021–05–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:ciesrp:cies_rp_66&r= |
| By: | Cesar Martinelli (Interdisciplinary Center for Economic Science and Department of Economics, George Mason University); Cynthia Boruchowicz (University of Maryland); Susan W. Parker (University of Maryland, Center for Research and Teaching in Economics (CIDE)) |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of mass migration from Venezuela on Peruvian labor markets. In 4239–423:, about :92,222 Venezuelans migrated to Peru; about :6% settled in the Lima metropolitan area, where the percentage of Venezuelans in the working age population went from nil to over 32%. Migrants were more educated in average than the local labor force, and did nor face large cultural barriers. We propose a simple assignment model of the labor market, which suggests that migration will lead to a reallocation of local workers toward lower skill jobs. Using synthetic control methods, and comparing Lima with a group of other Peruvian cities, we find evidence of adjustment in occupational structure in the direction predicted by the model. Overall, market adjustment to a large shock in labor supply was strikingly smooth. |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gms:wpaper:1080&r= |
| By: | Andreas Fuster; Aurel Hizmo; Lauren Lambie-Hanson; James Vickery; Paul S. Willen |
| Abstract: | We study the evolution of US mortgage credit supply during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the mortgage market experienced a historic boom in 2020, we show there was also a large and sustained increase in intermediation markups that limited the pass-through of low rates to borrowers. Markups typically rise during periods of peak demand, but this historical relationship explains only part of the large increase during the pandemic. We present evidence that pandemic-related labor market frictions and operational bottlenecks contributed to unusually inelastic credit supply, and that technology-based lenders, likely less constrained by these frictions, gained market share. Rising forbearance and default risk did not significantly affect rates on “plain vanilla” conforming mortgages, but it did lead to higher spreads on mortgages without government guarantees and loans to the riskiest borrowers. Mortgage-backed securities purchases by the Federal Reserve also supported the flow of credit in the conforming segment. |
| JEL: | G21 G23 G28 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28843&r= |
| By: | Albrecht, Sabine; Cettolin, Elena; Ghidoni, Riccardo; Suetens, Sigrid |
| Abstract: | Does exposure to ethnic minorities change the majority's attitudes towards them? We investigate this question using novel panel data on attitudes from a general-population sample in the Netherlands matched to geographical data on refugees. We find that people who live in neighborhoods of refugees for a sufficiently long time acquire a more positive attitude. Instead, people living in municipalities hosting refugees, but not in their close neighborhood, develop a more negative attitude. The positive neighborhood effect is particularly strong for groups that are likely to have personal contact with refugees suggesting that contact with minorities can effectively reduce prejudice. |
| Keywords: | attitudes to immigrants; discrimination; ethnic diversity; individual-level fixed-effects regressions; intergroup contact; lab-in-the-field experiment; prejudice; refugee crisis |
| JEL: | C23 D91 J15 R23 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15237&r= |
| By: | Roxana Elena Manea; Pedro Naso |
| Abstract: | In this study, we investigate the impacts of the 2002 elimination of primary school fees in Mainland Tanzania. We explore how the magnitude of these effects depends on gender and the size of early investments in the educational infrastructure of Tanganyika. We use the 2002 and 2012 census waves as well as historical information on the location of schools in the late 1940s, and conduct a difference-in-differences analysis. We find that exposure to an average of 1.7 years of free primary education has reduced the proportion of people who have never attended primary education by 6.8 percentage points. The benefits of fee removal have been signi cantly larger for females compared to males, and females from districts where the size of investments in education was relatively larger during colonial rule have been the greatest beneficiaries. |
| Keywords: | School fee; Educational Inequality; Tanzania |
| Date: | 2021–05–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:ciesrp:cies_rp_64_v2&r= |
| By: | Shuhei Kaneko (Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishi-Waseda, Shinjuku, Tokyo 169-8050 Japan); Haruko Noguchi (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishi-Waseda, Shinjuku, Tokyo 169-8050 Japan.) |
| Abstract: | Sibling interaction is one of the most important and frequent communications for children. Using administrative data collected by a municipality in the Hokkaido prefecture, Japan, we find a positive and significant spillover effect in academic per- formance both from older to younger siblings and from younger to older siblings. Our heterogeneity analysis shows that sibling spillovers vary by family backgrounds. The spillovers from older to younger siblings are amplified among same-gender sib- lings, siblings 2-3 years apart, and lower-income families. On the other hand, the spillovers from younger to older siblings are significantly observed only among brother pairs; the wider the age differences, the stronger the effects; and spillover ef- fects among poorer families are negatively estimated. Finally, we show that younger siblings in lower-income households are more in uenced by their bottom-achieving older siblings, eliciting the importance of family-based interventions aimed at better quality sibling interaction at the family level. |
| Keywords: | Sibling Spillover; Social Interaction; Human Capital; Education; Japan |
| JEL: | I20 I24 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2104&r= |
| By: | Andrew F. Haughwout; Donghoon Lee; Joelle Scally; Wilbert Van der Klaauw |
| Abstract: | Federal government actions in response to the pandemic have taken many forms. One set of policies is intended to reduce the risk that the pandemic will result in a housing market crash and a wave of foreclosures like the one that accompanied the Great Financial Crisis. An important and novel tool employed as part of these policies is mortgage forbearance, which provides borrowers the option to pause or reduce debt service payments during periods of hardship, without marking the loan delinquent on the borrower’s credit report. Widespread take-up of forbearance over the past year has significantly changed the housing finance system in the United States, in different ways for different borrowers. This post is the first of four focusing attention on the effects of mortgage forbearance and the outlook for the mortgage market. Here we use data from the New York Fed’s Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) to examine the effects of these changes on households during the pandemic. |
| Keywords: | mortgage forbearance; inequality |
| JEL: | D14 |
| Date: | 2021–05–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:91818&r= |
| By: | Newbery, David M G |
| Abstract: | Transport policy needs reform. Future Government investment and fiscal policy needs re-orienting to stimulate the economy after the Covid-19 lock-down. Prices used in project appraisal must include all external effects, committing to proper social cost-benefit analysis. In consequence, fuel duty rates need to be more than doubled as a prelude to proper road pricing. Transport investment needs to be increased even with proper road pricing and more allocated to walking and cycling, guided by benefit-cost ratios, following Eddington's recommendations. The paper gives five reasons for raising fuel duty rates, more on diesel than petrol, and estimates the desired levels. |
| Keywords: | fuel taxes; infrastructure investment; Road pricing; transport policy |
| JEL: | D62 H23 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15153&r= |
| By: | Jiongyan Zhang |
| Abstract: | In order to study the phenomenon of regional economic development and urban expansion from the perspective of night-light remote sensing images, researchers use NOAA-provided night-light remote sensing image data (data from 1992 to 2013) along with ArcGIS software to process image information, obtain the basic pixel information data of specific areas of the image, and analyze these data from the space-time domain for presentation of the trend of regional economic development in China in recent years, and tries to explore the urbanization effect brought by the rapid development of China's economy. Through the analysis and study of the data, the results show that the urbanization development speed in China is still at its peak, and has great development potential and space. But at the same time, people also need to pay attention to the imbalance of regional development. |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2105.10459&r= |
| By: | Dave Berri; Alex Farnell; Vincent O'Sullivan; Robert Simmons |
| Abstract: | Despite its best efforts, the National Football League (NFL) has long been criticised for its lack of minority leadership amongst its teams. Recent hires (and non-hires) have only served to heighten this criticism. To assess this, we use a new, rich and unique dataset to examine the relationship between race and coaching hierarchy in the NFL. Our results indicate that young, experienced and well performing coordinators are likely to be promoted to Head Coach while older and poorly performing coaches are more likely to be fired. A coach’s race does not seem to play a role in either promotions or firings. In the post Rooney Rule era (post 2003) however, black coordinators are marginally more likely to be promoted than previously. Black Head Coaches on the other hand, are neither more nor less likely to find a job at the same level. The Rooney Rule has been successful to the extent that teams now consider (and ultimately appoint) equally skilled black coordinators to Head Coaching jobs, despite our evidence suggesting that equally skilled black coordinators had always been available. |
| Keywords: | Racial Discrimination, NFL, Coaches |
| JEL: | J71 Z21 Z22 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lan:wpaper:326919397&r= |
| By: | Stephen J. Redding |
| Abstract: | The second half of the twentieth century saw large-scale suburbanization in the United States, with the median share of residents who work in the same county where they live falling from 87 to 71 percent between 1970 and 2000. We introduce a new methodology for discriminating between the three leading explanations for this suburbanization (workplace attractiveness, residence attractiveness and bilateral commuting frictions). This methodology holds in the class of spatial models that are characterized by a structural gravity equation for commuting. We show that the increased openness of counties to commuting is mainly explained by reductions in bilateral commuting frictions, consistent with the expansion of the interstate highway network and the falling real cost of car ownership. We find that changes in workplace attractiveness and residence attractiveness are more important in explaining the observed shift in employment by workplace and employment by residence towards lower densities over time. |
| JEL: | R12 R30 R40 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28841&r= |
| By: | Borusyak, Kirill; Hull, Peter; Jaravel, Xavier |
| Abstract: | Many studies use shift-share (or "Bartik") instruments, which average a set of shocks with exposure share weights. We provide a new econometric framework for shift-share instrumental variable (SSIV) regressions in which identification follows from the quasi-random assignment of shocks, while exposure shares are allowed to be endogenous. The framework is motivated by an equivalence result: the orthogonality between a shift-share instrument and an unobserved residual can be represented as the orthogonality between the underlying shocks and a shock-level unobservable. SSIV regression coefficients can similarly be obtained from an equivalent shock-level regression, motivating shock-level conditions for their consistency. We discuss and illustrate several practical insights of this framework in the setting of Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2013), estimating the effect of Chinese import competition on manufacturing employment across U.S. commuting zones. |
| JEL: | C18 C21 C26 F16 J21 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15212&r= |
| By: | Valentina Tartari; Scott Stern |
| Abstract: | This paper provides systematic empirical evidence for the distinctive role of universities on local entrepreneurial ecosystems. Assessing the impact of research institutions on entrepreneurship is challenging, given that these institutions are often located in economic and innovation environments conducive to growth-oriented entrepreneurial activity, are themselves a source of local demand, and produce knowledge, which might serve as the foundation for new ventures. To overcome this inference challenge, we first combine comprehensive business registration records with a predictive analytics approach to measure both the quantity and quality-adjusted quantity of entrepreneurship at the zip-code level on an annual basis. We then link each location to the presence or absence of research-oriented universities or national laboratories. Finally, we exploit significant changes over time in Federal commitments to both universities and national laboratories. Our key finding is that changes in Federal research commitments to universities are uniquely linked to positively correlated changes in the quality-adjusted quantity of entrepreneurship. In contrast, increases in non-research funding to universities and funding to national laboratories is associated with either a neutral or negative impact on the quality-adjusted quantity of entrepreneurship. Research funding to universities seems to play a unique role in promoting the acceleration of local entrepreneurial ecosystems. |
| JEL: | L26 O3 R12 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28846&r= |
| By: | Borowiecki, Karol Jan (Department of Business and Economics) |
| Abstract: | Teachers and mentors in creative fields ranging from scientific research to the arts may shape their students' skills and views of the craft, and in turn the work they produce. How significant is this influence, how long does it last, and are there consequences for the variety and quality of students' inventive output? We study these questions in the context of Western music composition over five centuries, a historically important cultural institution, and in a setting where composers' musical lineage is well-documented, the content of their work can be directly compared, and its lasting value can be measured. We find strong evidence of influence, document when it arises and persists, and evaluate its consequences. The results provide insight into the production of creative or intellectual output, specifically around questions of where ideas come from, why certain ideas get produced as opposed to others, and what the ramifications might be. |
| Keywords: | Teacher influence; creativity; cultural transmission; transmission of ideas; music history |
| JEL: | I21 J24 N30 O31 Z11 |
| Date: | 2021–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sdueko:2021_005&r= |
| By: | Ager, Philipp; Cinnirella, Francesco |
| Abstract: | Public educators and philanthropists in the late 19th century United States promoted the establishment of kindergartens in cities as a remedy for the social problems associated with industrialization and immigration. Between 1880 and 1910, more than seven thousand kindergartens opened their doors in the United States, serving both a social and educational function. We use newly collected city-level data on the roll-out of the first kindergartens to evaluate their impact on household outcomes. We find that in cities with a larger kindergarten exposure, families significantly reduced fertility, with the strongest decline appearing in families that were economically disadvantaged and with an immigrant background. Households reduced fertility because kindergarten attendance increased returns to education, but it also led to higher opportunity costs for raising children. Indeed, we show that children exposed to kindergartens were less likely to work during childhood and, instead, stayed longer in school, had more prestigious jobs, and earned higher wages as adults. Finally, we find that exposure to kindergartens particularly helped immigrant children from non-English-speaking countries to gain English proficiency. Their attendance also generated positive language spillover effects on their mothers, illustrating the importance of early childhood education for the integration of immigrant families. |
| Keywords: | Family size; Fertility Transition; Kindergarten Education; Quantity-quality trade-off; Returns to Preschool Education |
| JEL: | I25 J13 N31 O15 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15146&r= |
| By: | Osvaldo Meloni (Universidad Nacional de Tucumán) |
| Abstract: | In a context of political competition incumbents trade-off the probability of losing office due to an increment in taxes to finance spending against the increase in the probability of remaining in office. However, this is not usual situation faced by subnational jurisdictions authorities that financed a large fraction of local expenditures with sizable discretionary transfers from the central government. It is expected that incumbents use that additional low-cost spending power given by federal transfers to feed clientelistic networks, increase public employment, direct subsidies to constituencies, thus enhancing their chances to remain in office. This paper presents evidence of the influence of political competition on the behavior of fiscal policy in argentine provinces from 1987 to 2015. Contrary to the predominant theory and empirical evidence from subnational districts my estimations of a dynamic panel data show that political competition is associated with increases in public outlays and changes in its composition. This finding is strongly related to the large vertical fiscal imbalances that characterize the argentine fiscal federalism. |
| Keywords: | political competition soft budget constraints vertical fiscal imbalance |
| JEL: | D72 P16 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:2&r= |
| By: | Konstantinos Vasilopoulos; William Tayler |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the property prices and investment dynamics over the business cycle when there is competition between households and firms for real estate. We introduce a construction sector into an RBC framework, which uses land, capital and labour to produce both commercial and residential real estate. This market structure activates a real estate substitution channel, where an increase in demand for residential real estate also increases the cost of producing commercial structures, which crowds out commercial real estate investment. In general, we find that the residential/commercial land allocation acts as an anchor for the allocation of its real estate investment counterpart; however, there are notable separations, particularly following the financial crisis where there was a simultaneous fall in residential and commercial investment. Our results indicate that whilst residential real estate prices were predominately driven by increases in its demand in the buildup to the financial crisis, the fall in demand for commercial real estate played a significant role in generating price falls for both types of real estate in the aftermath. Furthermore, falls in the overall supply of real estate played an important role in reducing real estate investment which put upward pressure on prices throughout the past two decades. |
| Keywords: | Commercial Real Estate, Residential Real Estate, Real Estate Substitution, Land Prices, DSGE Models |
| JEL: | E32 E44 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lan:wpaper:326919291&r= |
| By: | Sandip Datta (Delhi School of Economics, New Delhi.); Geeta Gandhi Kingdon (Institute of Education, University College London.) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the widespread perception in India that the country has an acute teacher shortage of about one million teachers in public elementary schools, a view repeated in India’s National Education Policy 2020. Using official DISE data, we show that there is hardly any net teacher deficit in the country since there is roughly the same number of surplus teachers as the number of teacher vacancies. Secondly, we show that measuring teacher requirements after removing the estimated fake students from enrolment data greatly reduces the required number of teachers and increases the number of surplus teachers, yielding an estimated net surplus of about 342,000 teachers. Thirdly, we show that if we both remove fake enrolment and also make a suggested hypothetical change to the teacher allocation rule to adjust for the phenomenon of emptying public schools (which has slashed the national median size of public schools to a mere 64 students, and rendered many schools ‘tiny’), the estimated net teacher surplus is about 764,000 teachers. Fourthly, we highlight that if government does fresh recruitment to fill the supposed nearly one-million vacancies as promised in the National Education Policy 2020, the already modest national mean pupil-teacher-ratio of 22.8 would fall to 15.9, at a permanent fiscal cost of nearly Rupees 480 billion (USD 6.6 billion) per year in 2017-18 prices, which is higher than the individual GDPs of 56 countries in that year. The paper highlights the major economic efficiencies that can result from an evidence-based approach to teacher recruitment and deployment policies. |
| Keywords: | Public elementary schools, pupil teacher ratio, teacher vacancies, teacher surplus, fake pupil enrolment, teacher absence, India |
| JEL: | I20 I21 |
| Date: | 2021–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qss:dqsswp:2118&r= |
| By: | Fetzer, Thiemo; Wang, Shizhuo |
| Abstract: | Following the UK's vote to Leave the European Union, the UK's recorded record levels of employment. This led many pundits to claim that the downbeat forecasts for the UK's economy following the Brexit vote was simply capturing that these forecasts were biased and part of "project fear.'' This paper studies the cost of the Brexit-vote to date across UK regions finding significant evidence that suggests that the economic costs of the Brexit-vote are sizable and far from evenly distributed across the UK. Among 382 districts, at least 168 districts appear to be Brexit-vote losers, having lost, on average 8.54 percentage points of output in 2018 compared to their respective synthetic controls. The results suggest that the economic losses in region- and district-level output due to the Brexit-vote are: a) increasing in a districts propensity to have supported Leave in 2016; b) concentrated in districts with notable employment or gross-value added activity in manufacturing; c) concentrated in districts with a resident population with relatively low levels of human capital. The Brexit-vote induced economic divergence across regions is already exacerbating regional economic inequalities that became so apparent in the 2016 EU referendum vote patterns. Further, there is some evidence suggesting that the regional economic impact of COVID19 may exacerbate the regional economic impact of the Brexit-vote to date. |
| Keywords: | Brexit; Economic impact; evaluation; Trade Barriers |
| JEL: | D7 F6 H2 H3 H5 P16 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15051&r= |
| By: | Berno Buechel; Selina Gangl; Martin Huber |
| Abstract: | We analyze the impact of obtaining a residence permit on foreign workers' labor market and residential attachment. To overcome the usually severe selection issues, we exploit a unique migration lottery that randomly assigns access to otherwise restricted residence permits in Liechtenstein (situated between Austria and Switzerland). Using an instrumental variable approach, our results show that lottery compliers (whose migration behavior complies with the assignment in their first lottery) raise their employment probability in Liechtenstein by on average 24 percentage points across outcome periods (2008 to 2018) as a result of receiving a permit. Relatedly, their activity level and employment duration in Liechtenstein increase by on average 20 percentage points and 1.15 years, respectively, over the outcome window. These substantial and statistically significant effects are mainly driven by individuals not (yet) working in Liechtenstein prior to the lottery rather than by previous cross-border commuters. Moreover, we find both the labor market and residential effects to be persistent even several years after the lottery with no sign of fading out. These results suggest that granting resident permits to foreign workers can be effective to foster labor supply even beyond the effect of cross-border commuting from adjacent regions. |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2105.11840&r= |
| By: | Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Koyama, Mark; Lin, Youhong; Sng, Tuan-Hwee |
| Abstract: | Patterns of political unification and fragmentation have crucial implications for comparative economic development. Diamond (1997) famously argued that ``fractured land'' was responsible for China's tendency toward political unification and Europe's protracted political fragmentation. We build a dynamic model with granular geographical information in terms of topographical features and the location of productive agricultural land to quantitatively gauge the effects of ``fractured land'' on state formation in Eurasia. We find that either topography or productive land alone is sufficient to account for China's recurring political unification and Europe's persistent political fragmentation. The existence of a core region of high land productivity in Northern China plays a central role in our simulations. We discuss how our results map into observed historical outcomes and assess how robust our findings are. |
| Keywords: | China; Europe; Great Divergence; Political Centralization; Political Fragmentation; state capacity |
| JEL: | H56 N40 P48 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15209&r= |
| By: | Edmond Berisha (Feliciano School of Business, Montclair State University, Montclair, NJ 07043); John Meszaros (U.S. Postal Service, USA); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield, 0028, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the secular increase in US income inequality and its relation to growing house prices over the past three decades. We explore income inequality's effect on house prices based on a high-frequency (quarterly) data-set for all US states, including the District of Columbia. The analysis show that higher income inequality decreases the growth rate of house prices. However, the relationship differs for the Northeast region. We find higher income inequality corresponds with higher house prices across the states within the Northeast region. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, House Prices, Regional Studies |
| JEL: | D60 O40 O50 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202135&r= |
| By: | Soga, Kenichi; Comfort, Louise; Zhao, Bingyu; Lorusso, Paola; Soysal, Sena |
| Abstract: | As demonstrated by the Camp Fire evacuation, communications (city-to-city, city-to-residents) play important roles in coordinating traffic operations and safeguarding region-wide evacuation processes in wildfire events. This collaborative report across multiple domains (fire, communication and traffic), documents a series of simulations and findings of the wildfire evacuation process for resource-strapped towns in Northern California. It consists of: (1) meteorological and vegetation-status dependent fire spread simulation (cellular automata model); (2) agency-level and agency-to-residents communication simulation (system dynamics model); and (3) dynamic traffic assignment (spatial-queue model). Two case studies are conducted: one for the town of Paradise (and the surrounding areas) and another for the community of Bolinas. The data and models are based on site visits and interviews with local agencies and residents. The integrated simulation framework is used to assess the interdependencies among the natural environment, the evacuation traffic and the communication networks from an interdisciplinary point of view, to determine the performance requirements to ensure viable evacuation strategies under urgent, dynamic wildfire conditions. The case study simulations identify both potential traffic and communication bottlenecks. This research supports integrating fire, communication and traffic simulation into evacuation performance assessments. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Wildfires, evacuation, communications, simulation, traffic simulation, mathematical models, hazards and emergency operations, case studies |
| Date: | 2021–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt1z913878&r= |
| By: | Bertocchi, Graziella; Dimico, Arcangelo |
| Abstract: | Discussion on the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on African Americans has been at center stage since the outbreak of the epidemic in the United States. To present day, however, lack of race-disaggregated individual data has prevented a rigorous assessment of the extent of this phenomenon and the reasons why blacks may be particularly vulnerable to the disease. Using individual and georeferenced death data collected daily by the Cook County Medical Examiner, we provide first evidence that race does affect COVID-19 outcomes. The data confirm that in Cook County blacks are overrepresented in terms of COVID-19 related deaths since---as of June 16, 2020---they constitute 35 percent of the dead, so that they are dying at a rate 1.3 times higher than their population share. Furthermore, by combining the spatial distribution of mortality with the 1930s redlining maps for the Chicago area, we obtain a block group level panel dataset of weekly deaths over the period January 1, 2020-June 16, 2020, over which we establish that, after the outbreak of the epidemic, historically lower-graded neighborhoods display a sharper increase in mortality, driven by blacks, while no pre-treatment differences are detected. Thus, we uncover a persistence influence of the racial segregation induced by the discriminatory lending practices of the 1930s, by way of a diminished resilience of the black population to the shock represented by the COVID-19 outbreak. A heterogeneity analysis reveals that the main channels of transmission are socioeconomic status and household composition, whose influence is magnified in combination with a higher black share. |
| Keywords: | blacks; Chicago; Cook County; COVID-19; deaths; redlining; Vulnerability |
| JEL: | I14 J15 N32 N92 R38 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15013&r= |
| By: | Felfe, Christina (University of Würzburg); Kocher, Martin G. (University of Munich); Rainer, Helmut (Ifo Institute for Economic Research); Saurer, Judith (University of Würzburg); Siedler, Thomas (University of Potsdam) |
| Abstract: | Inequality of opportunity, particularly when overlaid with socioeconomic, ethnic, or cultural differences, may limit the scope of cooperation between individuals. A central question, then, is how to overcome such obstacles to cooperation. We study this question in the context of Germany, by asking whether the propensity of immigrant youth to cooperate with native peers was affected by a major integration reform: the introduction of birthright citizenship. Our unique setup exploits data from a large-scale lab-in-the-field experiment in a quasi-experimental evaluation framework. We find that the policy caused male, but not female, immigrants to significantly increase their cooperativeness toward natives. We show that the increase in out-group cooperation among immigrant boys is an outcome of more trust rather than a reflection of stronger other-regarding preferences towards natives. In exploring factors that may explain these behavioral effects, we present evidence that the policy also led to a near-closure of the educational achievement gap between young immigrant men and their native peers. Our results highlight that, through integration interventions, governments can modify prosocial behavior in a way that generates higher levels of efficiency in the interaction between social groups. |
| Keywords: | cooperation, in-group/out-group behavior, lab-in-the-field experiment, birthright citizenship |
| JEL: | C93 D90 J15 K37 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14384&r= |
| By: | Soga, Kenichi PhD; Comfort, Louise PhD; Zhao, Bingyu PhD; Lorusso, Paola MSc; Soysal, Sena |
| Abstract: | As demonstrated by the Camp Fire evacuation, communications (city-to-city, city-to-residents) play important roles in coordinating traffic operations and safeguarding region-wide evacuation processes in wildfire events. This collaborative report across multiple domains (fire, communication and traffic), documents a series of simulations and findings of the wildfire evacuation process for resource-strapped towns in Northern California. It consists of: (1) meteorological and vegetation-status dependent fire spread simulation (cellular automata model); (2) agency-level and agency-to-residents communication simulation (system dynamics model); and (3) dynamic traffic assignment (spatial-queue model). Two case studies are conducted: one for the town of Paradise (and the surrounding areas) and another for the community of Bolinas. The data and models are based on site visits and interviews with local agencies and residents. The integrated simulation framework is used to assess the interdependencies among the natural environment, the evacuation traffic and the communication networks from an interdisciplinary point of view, to determine the performance requirements to ensure viable evacuation strategies under urgent, dynamic wildfire conditions. The case study simulations identify both potential traffic and communication bottlenecks. This research supports integrating fire, communication and traffic simulation into evacuation performance assessments. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Wildfires, evacuation, communications, simulation, traffic simulation, mathematical models, hazards and emergency operations, case studies |
| Date: | 2021–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt44c7b40d&r= |
| By: | Pierre-Alexandre Balland; Ron Boschma; |
| Abstract: | Do scientific capabilities in regions translate into technological leadership? This is one of the most pressing questions in academic and policy circles. This paper analyzes the matching of scientific and technological capabilities of 285 European regions. We build on patent and publication records to identify regions that lie both at the scientific and technological frontiers (strongholds), that are pure scientific leaders, pure technological leaders, or just followers in 18 domains. Our regional diversification model shows that local scientific capabilities in a domain are a strong predictor of the development of new technologies in that domain in regions. This finding is particularly relevant for the Smart Specialization policy because it implies that the analysis of domain-specific scientific knowledge can be a powerful tool to identify new diversification opportunities in regions. |
| Keywords: | science-technology link, regional diversification, relatedness, strongholds, scientific capabilities, technological capabilities, Smart Specialization policy |
| JEL: | B52 O33 R11 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2116&r= |
| By: | René Böheim (Johannes Kepler University Linz); Michael Christl (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | During the last decade, the Austrian labour market experienced a substantial outward shift of the Beveridge curve - the relationship between the unemployment and the job vacancy rate. Using detailed administrative data on vacancies and registered unemployed by region and skill level, we test which factors caused this shift. We find that the Beveridge curve shifted primarily because mismatch increased substantially. Looking on the regional and skill dimension of mismatch unemployment, we find a substantial increase of mismatch unemployment for manual routine tasks as well as for the region of Vienna. |
| Keywords: | Beveridge curve, unemployment, matching efficiency |
| JEL: | J21 J64 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:laedte:202108&r= |
| By: | Siegloch, Sebastian (University of Mannheim); Wehrhöfer, Nils (ZEW Mannheim); Etzel, Tobias (Deutsche Bundesbank) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effects of a large place-based policy, subsidizing up to 50% of investment costs of manufacturing firms in East Germany after reunification. We show that a 1-percentage-point decrease in the subsidy rate leads to a 1% decrease in manufacturing employment. We document important spillovers for untreated sectors in treated counties, untreated counties connected via trade and local taxes, whereas we do not find spillovers on counties in the same local labor market. We show that the policy is at least as efficient as cash transfers to the unemployed, but is more effective in curbing regional inequality. |
| Keywords: | place-based policies, employment, spillovers, administrative microdata |
| JEL: | H24 J21 J23 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14362&r= |
| By: | Helm, Ines (Stockholm University); Stuhler, Jan (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | We study the fiscal and tax response to intergovernmental grants, exploiting quasi-experimental variation within Germany's fiscal equalization scheme triggered by Census revisions of official population counts. Municipal budgets do not adjust instantly. Instead, spending and investments adapt within five years to revenue gains, while adjustment to revenue losses is more rapid. Yet, the long-run response is symmetric. The tax response is particularly slow, stretching over more than a decade. Well-known empirical "anomalies" in public finance such as the flypaper effect are thus primarily a short-run phenomenon, while long-run fiscal behavior appears more consistent with standard theories of fiscal federalism. |
| Keywords: | intergovernmental grants, fiscal transfers, government spending, local taxation, Census Shock, flypaper effect |
| JEL: | H71 H72 H77 E62 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14369&r= |
| By: | Scott W. Hegerty |
| Abstract: | Both within the United States and worldwide, the city of Detroit has become synonymous with economic decline, depopulation, and crime. Is Detroit's situation unique, or can similar neighborhoods be found elsewhere? This study examines Census block group data, as well as local crime statistics for 2014, for a set of five Midwestern cities. Roughly three percent of Chicago's and Milwaukee's block groups--all of which are in majority nonwhite areas--exceed Detroit's median values for certain crimes, vacancies, and a poverty measure. This figure rises to 11 percent for St. Louis, while Minneapolis has only a single "Detroit-like" block group. Detroit's selected areas are more likely to be similar to the entire city itself, both spatially and statistically, while these types of neighborhoods for highly concentrated "pockets" of poverty elsewhere. Development programs that are targeted in one city, therefore, must take these differences into account and should be targeted to appropriate neighborhoods. |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2105.10567&r= |
| By: | Oliver Vanden Eynde (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Liam Wren-Lewis (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Complementarities between infrastructure projects have been understudied. Our paper examines interactions in the impacts of large-scale road construction, electrification, and mobile phone coverage programs in rural India. We find strong evidence of complementary impacts between roads and electricity on agricultural production: dry season cropping increases significantly when villages receive both, but not when they receive one without the other. These complementarities are associated with a shift of cropping patterns towards market crops and with improved economic conditions. In contrast, we find no consistent evidence of complementarities for the mobile coverage program. |
| Keywords: | infrastructure,complementarities,agriculture |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03225063&r= |
| By: | Linsenmeier, Manuel |
| Abstract: | This study estimates causal effects of temperature variability on economic activity. For identification I use a novel research design based on spatial first-differences. Economic activity is proxied by nightlights. I distinguish between day-to-day, seasonal, and interannual variability and find that the type of variability matters. The results suggest an economically large and statistically significant negative effect of day-to-day variability on economic activity at most temperature levels. Regarding seasonal variability, I find a smaller but also negative effect. The estimated effect of interannual variability is positive at low and negative at high temperatures. These effects are robust, they can be identified in urban and rural areas, and they cannot be explained with the spatial distribution of agriculture. The results draw attention to the effect of climate variability, which is projected to change but has so far been mostly overlooked in assessments of the impacts and costs of climate change. |
| Keywords: | climate; temperature; nightlights; day-to-day variability; seasonal variability; interannual variability |
| JEL: | Q54 Q56 R11 R12 R14 O13 |
| Date: | 2021–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110499&r= |
| By: | Marion Leroutier (Paris School of Economics, Universite Paris I/Ecole des Ponts ParisTech (CIRED)); Philippe Quirion (CIRED, CNRS) |
| Abstract: | Urban road transport is an important source of local pollution and CO2 emissions. To tackle these externalities, it is crucial to understand who contributes to emissions today and what are the alternatives to high-emission trips. We estimate individual contributions to transport-induced emissions, by bringing together data from a travel demand survey in the Paris area and emission factor data for local pollutants and CO2. We document high inequalities in emissions, with the top 20% of emitters contributing 75-85% of emissions on a representative weekday, depending on the pollutant. Top emissions result from a combination of high distances travelled, a high reliance on car and, mainly for local pollutants, a higher emission intensity of cars. We estimate with counterfactual travel times that 53% of current car drives could be shifted to electric bikes or public transport with a limited time increase. This would reduce the emissions from daily mobility by 19-21%, with corresponding annual health and climate benefits of around €245m. |
| Keywords: | environmental inequalities, externalities, empirical analysis, |
| JEL: | R40 Q52 Q53 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fae:wpaper:2021.07&r= |
| By: | KUMO, Kazuhiro; SHADRINA, Elena |
| Abstract: | Hill and Gaddy (2004) argued that Zipf’s law or the rank-size rule was not observed for the urban systems in the Soviet Union. Having incorporated more comprehensive historical data for all cities in the former Soviet Union republics, the authors of this paper present the following findings. First, the Soviet hierarchical urban systems were evolving: in the late Imperial era and early Soviet period, they followed the Zipf’s law prediction, but they diverged from the rank-size rule possibly as a result of the World War II, and yet again they revealed converging to the traditional rank-size distribution trends in the late Soviet period; and second, this evolution was not necessarily the ultimate product of the policies developed by the command-administrative system. This paper confirms the former, although statistical verification of the effects of the Soviet urban policies on the urban hierarchical system in the USSR is the task ahead. |
| Keywords: | Zipf’s law, rank-size rule, urban hierarchical system, Soviet Union, Russia |
| JEL: | N93 N94 O18 P25 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:rrcwps:91&r= |
| By: | Kremer, Anna |
| Abstract: | Diversity of a country is often measured by the amount and spread of nationalities that live there. But also within a country, regions vary in their traditions and culture. Cultural homogeneity within communities is mixed up by (internal) migration, that, like international migration, increases diversity of a place. In a novel approach I therefore look at diversity in German municipality associations measured by different family names and investigate the effect it has on the number of generated patents. I show that cultural diversity and openness of a place affect its economic performance positively in terms of innovation also when referring to intra-country differences. |
| Keywords: | cultural diversity,innovation,openness,phonebook,patents,local level,Germany,kulturelle Diversität,Innovation,Offenheit,Telefonbuch,Patente,lokal,Deutschland |
| JEL: | O31 R12 Z10 J61 O1 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tudcep:0321&r= |
| By: | Moritz Breul; Carolin Hulke; Linus Kalvelage |
| Abstract: | The emergence of new regional paths is a key topic in economic geography. While new paths are largely associated with positive regional economic outcomes, little is known about how the formation of a new industry affects other parts of the regional economy. By linking recent conceptual advancements on early path formation and inter-path relationships, this article develops a framework for studying how path creation, as a result of diverse resource formation processes, causes the reformation processes of existing industries. The value of the framework is illustrated in a case study on the tourism path formation process in the Zambezi region (Namibia) and its impacts on the agricultural sector. The findings reveal how the path formation has caused new forms of intra-regional inequalities as well as novel opportunities for the existing agricultural sector depending on the inter-path relationship. Beyond these case-study- specific findings, the results emphasize the importance of a broader perspective that goes beyond a single new path and includes non-participating regional actors in the analysis. Only in this way can we understand how new path creation translates into regional economic development. |
| Keywords: | path creation, regional development, inter-path relationship, new industries, Namibia |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2115&r= |
| By: | Simeon Djankov; Edward L. Glaeser; Valeria Perotti; Andrei Shleifer |
| Abstract: | How do the different elements in the standard bundle of property rights, including those of possession and transfer, influence the shape of cities? This paper incorporates insecure property rights into a standard model of urban land prices and density, and makes predictions about investment in land and property, informality, and the efficiency of land use. Our empirical analysis links data on institutions for land titling and transfer with multiple urban outcomes, in 190 countries. The evidence is generally consistent with the model’s predictions, and more broadly with the Demsetz’s (1967) approach to property rights institutions. Indeed, we document world-wide improvements in the quality of institutions facilitating property transfer over time. |
| JEL: | K11 P14 R30 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28793&r= |
| By: | Tohari, Achmad (University of Western Australia); Parsons, Christopher (University of Western Australia); Rammohan, Anu (University of Western Australia) |
| Abstract: | Information campaigns aimed at empowering the poor often fall short of meeting their desired aims. We study literacy's role in determining their efficacy. First, exploiting an RD design, we show that receipt of information increased household rice receipts by 30 percentage points. Second, we show that approximately half of the effect is driven by household head literacy. Leveraging novel data on the locations and timings of school openings in the 1970s INPRES school building program, we document that household heads' literacy gained during childhood was pivotal for their households subsequently receiving their full entitlement of rice during adulthood. |
| Keywords: | poverty, targeting, information, literacy, dynamic complementarity |
| JEL: | D04 D73 I21 I28 I32 I38 J24 O12 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14358&r= |
| By: | Jan Marcus; Thomas Siedler; Nicolas R. Ziebarth |
| Abstract: | Starting in 2009, the German state of Saxony distributed sports club membership vouchers among all 33,000 third graders in the state. The policy’s objective was to encourage them to develop a long-term habit of exercising. In 2018, we carried out a large register-based survey among several cohorts in Saxony and two neighboring states. Our difference-indifferences estimations show that, even after a decade, awareness of the voucher program was significantly higher in the treatment group. We also find that youth received and redeemed the vouchers. However, we do not find significant short- or long-term effects on sports club membership, physical activity, overweightness, or motor skills. |
| JEL: | H71 I12 I14 I18 I28 I38 Z28 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28819&r= |
| By: | Connor, Dylan Shane; Storper, Michael |
| Abstract: | New evidence shows that intergenerational social mobility-the rate at which children born into poverty climb the income ladder-varies considerably across the United States. Is this current geography of opportunity something new or does it reflect a continuation of long-term trends? We answer this question by constructing data on the levels and determinants of social mobility across American regions over the 20th century. We find that the changing geography of opportunity-generating economic activity restructures the landscape of intergenerational mobility, but factors associated with specific regional structures of interpersonal and racial inequality that have "deep roots" generate persistence. This is evident in the sharp decline in social mobility in the Midwest as economic activity has shifted away from it and the consistently low levels of opportunity in the South even as economic activity has shifted toward it. We conclude that the long-term geography of social mobility can be understood through the deep roots and changing economic fortunes of places. |
| Keywords: | economic history; geography; inequality; intergenerational mobility; race |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2020–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:107934&r= |
| By: | Hakan Yilmazkuday (Department of Economics, Florida International University) |
| Abstract: | Using daily county-level travel data within the U.S., this paper investigates the welfare costs of travel reductions due to COVID-19 for the period between January 20th and September 5th, 2020. Welfare of individuals (related to their travel) is measured by their inter-county and intra-county travel, where travel costs are measured by the corresponding distance measures. Important transport policy implications follow regarding how policy makers can act to mitigate welfare costs of travel reductions without worsening the COVID-19 spread. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Travel Reductions, Welfare Costs, U.S. Counties |
| JEL: | J61 I10 I31 R11 R13 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fiu:wpaper:2114&r= |
| By: | Pauline Givord (Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques) |
| Abstract: | This study provides new empirical evidence of birthday effects over a range of educational and socioemotional outcomes. It relies on data from the recent cycles of the Program for International School Assessment (PISA) for six European countries. Age at entry has a significant and sizeable impact on cognitive outcomes for 15-year-old students as measured in PISA. The magnitude of the birthday effects on socioemotional skills varies, but overall the results suggest that those students who enter school relatively younger have more negative relationships with their teachers and peers at school. These students also have lower intrinsic motivation and self-esteem and have less ambitious educational expectations than their peers who entered school older. |
| Keywords: | Birthday effects; PISA; Instrumental variables; socioemotional outcomes |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6vfmfoopnt95qblsf6jj9f6ics&r= |
| By: | Andrew F. Haughwout; Donghoon Lee; Joelle Scally; Wilbert Van der Klaauw |
| Abstract: | In our first post in this series we showed that mortgage provisions under the CARES ACT and its subsequent extensions resulted in a rapid take-up of mortgage forbearances, under which borrowers had the option to pause or reduce debt service payments without inducing a delinquency notation on their credit reports. Here we examine the forbearance take-up rate of a group of mortgage borrowers we expect to have been particularly hard hit by the pandemic recession: small business owners. Relatively little is known about how small business owners have fared over the past year in terms of their personal finances. Were they able to continue making mortgage payments on their homes? Did they draw on home equity to help fund their business operations? |
| Keywords: | small business; household finance; CCP; Consumer Credit Panel |
| JEL: | D14 |
| Date: | 2021–05–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:91820&r= |
| By: | Stefan Leknes; Sturla A. Løkken (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | Reliable local demographic schedules are in high demand, but small area problems pose a challenge to estimation. The literature has directed little attention to the opportunities created by increased availability of high-quality geo-coded data. We propose the use of empirical Bayes methods based on a model with three hierarchical geographic levels to predict small area fertility schedules. The proposed model has a flexible specification with respect to age, which allows for detailed age heterogeneity in local fertility patterns. The model limits sampling variability in small areas, captures regional variations effectively, is robust to certain types of model misspecification, and outperforms alternative models in terms of prediction accuracy. The beneficial properties of the model are demonstrated through simulations and estimations on full-count Norwegian population data. |
| Keywords: | small area estimation; hierarchical linear models; empirical Bayes method; shrinkage; age-specific fertility |
| JEL: | J13 R58 C13 C18 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:953&r= |
| By: | Poutvaara, Panu (University of Munich) |
| Abstract: | International migration flows largely reflect demographic patterns and economic opportunities. Migration flows increase in expected income and other pull factors in potential destinations, and in push factors in the origin, like high unemployment, low wages, and high population growth. Migration flows decrease in the geographic and cultural distance between the potential origin and destination, and in other migration costs. To the extent that migrants are employed, immigration can alleviate challenges arising from population aging. For origin countries, the effects of migration may go either way, depending on whether increased incentives to invest in education are sufficient to compensate the loss of skilled workers. Throughout the 20th century, Northern America and Australia and New Zealand attracted highest immigration flows. Latin America was consistently a continent of emigration. Europe went through a major reversal from a continent of emigration until 1950s to a continent of immigration. In the 21st century, crucial questions for demographic and migration research are how fertility rate and emigration rate are going to develop in Africa. Even modest increases in emigration from Africa would generate major increases in immigration pressure in the rest of the world, mostly in Europe. Other major questions on the future research agenda are the effects of the climate change and rapid improvements in information technology. |
| Keywords: | international migration, population aging, demographic trends, fertility, immigrant workers |
| JEL: | F22 O15 J11 J13 J61 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14389&r= |
| By: | Hémet, Camille; Michel, Bastien |
| Abstract: | How do individuals convicted to incarceration fare in terms of later crime and labor market outcomes compared to those who receive a non-custodial sentence? We answer this question by taking advantage of a Danish reform whereby most offenders tried for a drunk-driving crime were placed on probation rather than sentenced to incarceration. Our first key finding is that stakeholders anticipated the consequences of the reform as significant selection is observed in the nature of the cases tried before and after the reform. To measure its impact, we resort to a novel instrumental variable approach exploiting quasi-exogenous variation in the probability of being tried after the reform and therefore incarcerated, based on the crime date. We find that incarcerated offenders commit more crimes and have weaker ties to the labor market than those placed on probation. The effects are particularly strong among young offenders. Our findings suggest that economic precariousness is an important mechanism explaining subsequent criminal behavior. |
| Keywords: | crime; employment; incarceration; Recidivism |
| JEL: | J24 K14 K42 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15047&r= |
| By: | Bonnefon, Jean-François; Shariff, Azim; Rahwan, Iyad |
| Abstract: | Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) promise of a multi-trillion-dollar industry that revolutionizes transportation safety and convenience depends as much on overcoming the psychological barriers to their widespread use as the technological and legal challenges. The first AV-related traffic fatalities have pushed manufacturers and regulators towards decisions about how mature AV technology should be before the cars are rolled out in large numbers. We discuss the psychological factors underlying the question of how safe AVs need to be to compel consumers away from relying on the abilities of human drivers. For consumers, how safe is safe enough? Three preregistered studies (N = 4,566) reveal that the established psychological biases of algorithm aversion and the better-than-average effect leave consumers averse to adopting AVs unless the cars meet extremely potentially unrealistically high safety standards. Moreover, these biases prove stubbornly hard to overcome, and risk substantially delaying the adoption of life-saving autonomous driving technology. We end by proposing that, from a psychological perspective, the emphasis AV advocates have put on safety may be misplaced. |
| Keywords: | autonomous vehicles; automation; algorithm aversion; safety; illusory superiority |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:125618&r= |
| By: | Eric Auerbach |
| Abstract: | This paper provides additional results relevant to the setting, model, and estimators of Auerbach (2019a). Section 1 contains results about the large sample properties of the estimators from Section 2 of Auerbach (2019a). Section 2 considers some extensions to the model. Section 3 provides an application to estimating network peer effects. Section 4 shows the results from some simulations. |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2105.10002&r= |
| By: | Orr, Meghan; Olson, Ben; Carballo, Angelina; Garcia, Alondra; O'Brien, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Geographic information systems (GIS) are an increasingly relevant tool being used in a variety of workforces. While education on GIS is well developed at the collegiate level and in workforce training programs, it is underutilized in K-12 settings. Research indicates that learning GIS can improve spatial and critical thinking skills in students, key elements for excelling in a variety of careers. Best practices indicate that teaching GIS through projects in a cross disciplinary setting (i.e., including math, science, and writing elements to projects), students may retain even more information about the subject matters and develop a greater interest in STEM and GIS related fields. Incorporating projects that are salient to student life such as themes of sustainability may increase student interest as well. Instructor fluency in GIS and mapping was found to be key to successful GIS education as well. When developing a GIS workshop, the authors recommend incorporating interdisciplinary projects that are salient to student interest, and pair it with a teacher educator workshop that highlights the benefits of using GIS in an educational setting. With the limited time of a single day workshop, focusing on gaining buy-in and explaining feasibility will be key to any successful workshop. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Education, GIS, Education, K-12, Project-based learning, Workshops |
| Date: | 2021–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt59b7v5cc&r= |
| By: | Balan, Pablo; Bergeron, Augustin; Tourek, Gabriel; Weigel, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | Historical states with low capacity often delegated tax collection to local elites, despite the risk of mismanagement. Could this strategy raise revenues without undermining government legitimacy in fragile states today? We provide evidence from a randomized policy experiment assigning neighborhoods of a Congolese city - spanning 45,162 properties - to tax collection by state agents or by city chiefs. Chief collection raised property tax compliance by 3.3 percentage points, increasing revenues by 43%. Although chiefs collected more bribes, we find no evidence of mismanagement or backlash on other margins. Results from a hybrid treatment arm in which state agents consulted with chiefs before collection suggest that chief collectors achieved higher compliance by using local information to more efficiently target households with high payment propensities, rather than by being more effective at persuading households to pay conditional on having visited them. |
| JEL: | D73 H20 P48 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15138&r= |
| By: | Andrew F. Haughwout; Donghoon Lee; Joelle Scally; Wilbert Van der Klaauw |
| Abstract: | As we discussed in our previous post, millions of mortgage borrowers have entered forbearance since the beginning of the pandemic, and more than 2 million remain in a program as of March 2021. In this post, we use our Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) data to examine borrower behavior while in forbearance. The credit bureau data are ideal for this purpose because they allow us to follow borrowers over time, and to connect developments on the mortgage with those on other credit products. We find that forbearance results in reduced mortgage delinquencies and is associated with increased paydown of other debts, suggesting that these programs have significantly improved the financial positions of the borrowers who received them. |
| Keywords: | mortgage forbearance; credit cards |
| JEL: | D14 |
| Date: | 2021–05–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:91819&r= |
| By: | Engel, Claudia (Stanford University); Rodden, Jonathan (Stanford University); Tabellini, Marco (Harvard Business School) |
| Abstract: | Choropleth disease maps have become the main tool for communicating information about the geography of health threats to the public. These maps have the potential to shape perceptions of threat, preferences about policy, and perhaps even behavior, but they are unfortunately often poorly designed and misleading. In a large survey of residents of the U.S. state of Georgia conducted in June 2020, we randomly assigned respondents to view one of two maps produced in the spring of 2020 by the Georgia Department of Public Health. The first is a map of county-level COVID case counts, which generated the false perception that the COVID threat was concentrated almost exclusively in the Atlanta metro area. The second is a map of the case rate per 100,000 people, which clarified that the virus was widespread in much of Georgia. Those who saw the second map were less likely to consider the virus as an urban problem, and more likely to perceive it as a concern for Georgia and its economy. Moreover, respondents from non-metro areas who saw the case rate map were more concerned that they, their friends, or community members might contract the virus. Respondents who saw the case rate map also expressed greater support for policies aimed at mitigating the virus – an effect driven by self-identified Republicans, who were far more skeptical about public health measures to mitigate the spread of the virus in general. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, policy, maps, public health |
| JEL: | I18 I38 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14365&r= |
| By: | Andrew F. Haughwout; Donghoon Lee; Joelle Scally; Wilbert Van der Klaauw |
| Abstract: | We’ve spent the first three posts of this series discussing who has entered mortgage forbearance, and how their personal finances have developed during the course of the pandemic. In this fourth and final post, we will use Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) data to examine the profiles of those who remain in forbearance and those who have exited, and how the performance of household credit may evolve as the force of the pandemic begins to ebb and the economy reopens and normalizes. |
| Keywords: | household finance; mortgages; COVID-19; CCP; Consumer Credit Panel |
| JEL: | D14 |
| Date: | 2021–05–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:91821&r= |
| By: | Murray, Cameron (The University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | Glaeser and Gyourko (2003) (G&G) famously argued that if the marginal cost of a square metre of housing lot land is less than the average cost, this is evidence of a price effect from “artificial” supply constraints. They call this price gap a “regulatory tax”, but it is also known as a “zoning effect” or “zoning tax”. Their logic has been relied upon by hundreds of other studies and in numerous replications of their approach, including by economists from the Reserve Bank of Australia, whose results were widely publicised (Kendall and Tulip, 2018). However, the economic assumptions behind G&G’s approach are implausible. Although popular, their method should not be relied upon to infer anything about the nature of housing supply. This note explains why. |
| Date: | 2021–05–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:4jmb8&r= |
| By: | Juan Nelson Mart\'inez Dahbura; Shota Komatsu; Takanori Nishida; Angelo Mele |
| Abstract: | Social and professional networks affect labor market dynamics, knowledge diffusion and new business creation. To understand the determinants of how these networks are formed in the first place, we analyze a unique dataset of business cards exchanges among a sample of over 240,000 users of the multi-platform contact management and professional social networking tool for individuals Eight. We develop a structural model of network formation with strategic interactions, and we estimate users' payoffs that depend on the composition of business relationships, as well as indirect business interactions. We allow heterogeneity of users in both observable and unobservable characteristics to affect how relationships form and are maintained. The model's stationary equilibrium delivers a likelihood that is a mixture of exponential random graph models that we can characterize in closed-form. We overcome several econometric and computational challenges in estimation, by exploiting a two-step estimation procedure, variational approximations and minorization-maximization methods. Our algorithm is scalable, highly parallelizable and makes efficient use of computer memory to allow estimation in massive networks. We show that users payoffs display homophily in several dimensions, e.g. location; furthermore, users unobservable characteristics also display homophily. |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2105.12704&r= |
| By: | Berg, Gerard van den; Siflinger, Bettina |
| Abstract: | Lockdowns with lack of access to day care may have severe detrimental long-run health and behavioral effects on the children involved. This paper studies the effects of day care exposure on behavioral problems and mental health as well as on various aspects of physical health, at various ages during childhood. We draw on a unique set of comprehensive individual-level outpatient and inpatient health care register data merged with other register data. By exploiting variation in day care exposure by age generated by a major day care policy reform, we estimate cumulative and instantaneous effects on child health at different ages. We find sizeable beneficial cumulative impacts of day care on behavioral and mental health at primary school ages, and substitution of the incidence of infections from primary school ages to low ages. The evidence suggests that the main beneficiaries of day care are in low socio-economic households. Day care usage affects health care utilization and leads to a moderate reduction in health care costs. |
| Keywords: | behavioral disorders; Child Care; day care fees; Education; health registers; illness; infections; Non-cognitive ability; pre-school |
| JEL: | C23 C25 C83 I12 J13 J14 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15036&r= |
| By: | Boucher, Vincent; Del Bello, Carlo; Panebianco, Fabrizio; Verdier, Thierry; Zenou, Yves |
| Abstract: | We propose a model of intergenerational transmission of education wherein children belong to either high-educated or low-educated families. Children choose the intensity of their social activities, while parents decide how much educational effort to exert. We characterize the equilibrium and show the conditions under which cultural substitution or complementarity emerges. Using data on adolescents in the United States, we structurally estimate our model and find that, on average, children's homophily acts as a complement to the educational effort of high-educated parents but as a substitute for the educational effort of low-educated parents. We also perform some policy simulations. We find that policies that subsidize social interactions can backfire for low-educated students because they tend to increase their interactions with other low-educated students, which reduce the education effort of their parents and, thus, their chance of becoming educated. |
| Keywords: | Education; Social Networks |
| JEL: | D85 I21 Z13 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14997&r= |
| By: | Chen, Chen; Dasgupta, Sudipto; Huynh, Thanh; Xia, Ying |
| Abstract: | We show that increasing competition changes the location of economic activity and, in turn, affects supply chain relationships. Using establishment-level data, we find that when upstream product markets become more competitive, suppliers are more likely to relocate their establishments closer to customers. Following the supplier's relocation, its sales to the customer increase, its relationship with the customer is less likely to be terminated, and its innovation is more aligned with the customer's innovation. However, the improved relationship, by causing the supplier to engage more in innovation dedicated to the customer, adversely affects creative innovation, which is known to drive growth. |
| Keywords: | establishment relocation; knowledge spillover; Product Market Competition; Supply Chain |
| JEL: | G30 L1 O3 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15056&r= |
| By: | Ehrenbergerova, Dominika; Bajzik, Josef; Havranek, Tomas |
| Abstract: | Several central banks have leaned against the wind in the housing market by increasing the policy rate preemptively to prevent a bubble. Yet the empirical literature provides mixed results on the impact of short-term interest rates on house prices: the estimated semi-elasticities range from -12 to positive values. To assign a pattern to these differences, we collect 1,447 estimates from 31 individual studies that cover 45 countries and 69 years. We then relate the estimates to 39 characteristics of the financial system, business cycle, and estimation approach. Our main results are threefold. First, the mean reported estimate is exaggerated by publication bias, because insignificant results are underreported. Second, omission of important variables (liquidity and long-term rates) likewise exaggerates the effects of short-term rates on house prices. Third, the effects are stronger in countries with more developed mortgage markets and generally later in the cycle when the yield curve is flat and house prices enter an upward spiral. |
| Keywords: | interest rates,house prices,monetary policy transmission,meta-analysis,publication bias,Bayesian model averaging |
| JEL: | C83 E52 R21 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:234126&r= |
| By: | Minae Niki (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University) |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koe:wpaper:2115&r= |
| By: | Catherine E. Fazio; Jorge Guzman; Yupeng Liu; Scott Stern |
| Abstract: | Leveraging data from eight U.S. states from the Startup Cartography Project, this paper provides new insight into the changing nature and geography of entrepreneurship in the wake of the COVID pandemic. Consistent with other data sources, following an initial decline, the overall level of state-level business registrations not only rebounds but increases across all eight states. We focus here on the significant heterogeneity in this dynamic pattern of new firm formation across and within states. Specifically, there are significant differences in the dynamics of new business registrants across neighborhoods in terms of race and socioeconomic status. Areas including a higher proportion of Black residents, and more specifically higher median income Black neighborhoods, are associated with higher growth in startup formation rates between 2019 and 2020. Moreover, these dynamics are reflected in the passage of the major Federal relief packages. Even though legislation such as the CARES Act did not directly support new business formation, the passage and implementation of relief packages was followed by a relative increase in start-up formation rates, particularly in neighborhoods with higher median incomes and a higher proportion of Black residents. |
| JEL: | L26 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28787&r= |
| By: | Hakan Yilmazkuday (Department of Economics, Florida International University) |
| Abstract: | Using daily U.S. county-level data on consumption, employment, mobility and the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, this paper investigates the welfare costs of COVID-19. The investigation is achieved by using implications of a model, where there is a trade-off between consumption and COVID-19 cases that are both determined by the optimal mobility decision of individuals. The empirical results show evidence for about 11% of an average (across days) reduction of welfare during the sample period between February and December, 2020 for the average county. There is also evidence for heterogeneous welfare costs across U.S. counties and days, where certain counties have experienced welfare reductions up to 46% on average across days and up to 97% in late March, 2020 that are further connected to the socioeconomic characteristics of the U.S. counties. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Coronavirus, Welfare, U.S. Counties |
| JEL: | I10 I31 R11 R13 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fiu:wpaper:2111&r= |
| By: | Freitas-Monteiro, Teresa; Ludolph, Lars |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we link the peril of asylum seekers’ migratory journey to economically quantifiable outcomes in the destination country using refugee survey data from Germany collected in the aftermath of the 2015 refugee crisis. We start by showing that, accounting for selection effects, physical victimisation during the journey to Germany is strongly associated with significantly lower mental well-being and general health upon arrival in the destination. The physical victimisation experience severely distorts the human capital investment decision by leading affected refugees to favour joining the labour force and engaging in part-time and marginal employment over pursuing host-country education. We place our findings into both the psychiatric and experimental economic literature, which suggest that experiencing physical trauma in vulnerable situations results in a "loss of future directedness" or "impatience" among the victimised, leading them to discount future payoffs more heavily. |
| Keywords: | refugees; victimisation; labour market integration; education |
| JEL: | F22 J15 J21 O15 |
| Date: | 2021–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110500&r= |
| By: | Kasir (Kaliner), Nitsa; Yashiv, Eran |
| Abstract: | The Arab population in Israel constitutes an ethnic minority, at around 20% of the population. The economy of this minority is characterized by inferior outcomes relative to the Jewish majority by all indicators, including employment, wages, occupational status, social welfare, education, and housing. This paper reviews key data facts and presents a model of barriers to integration facing Arabs in Israel, taking it to the data. The empirical analysis, based on a general equilibrium model of occupational choice with optimizing agents and barriers, points to an increase over time in barriers to the acquisition of human capital in highly skilled occupations, and, concurrently, a reduction in labor market barriers in all occupations. The analysis offers insights relevant to other developed economies with large ethnic minorities. |
| Keywords: | ethnic minority; human capital barriers; labor market barriers; occupational choice |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15151&r= |
| By: | Kunz, Johannes; Propper, Carol; Staub, Kevin; Winkelmann, Rainer |
| Abstract: | We examine variation in hospital quality across ownership, market concentration and membership of a hospital system. We use a measure of quality derived from the penalties imposed on hospitals under the flagship Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program. We employ a novel estimation approach that extracts latent hospital quality from panel data on penalties and addresses the problem of never- or always-penalized hospitals in short panels. Our quality measure correlates strongly across penalized conditions and with other non-incentivized quality metrics. We document a robust and sizable for-profit quality gap, which is largely crowded out by competition, particularly amongst high-quality and system-organized hospitals. |
| Keywords: | A ordable Care Act; Competition; Hospital quality |
| JEL: | H51 I1 I11 I18 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15045&r= |
| By: | Michael Landesmann (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | The South-North migration corridor, i.e. migration flows to the EU from Africa, the Middle East and EU neighbouring countries in the East, have overtaken the East-West migration corridor, i.e. migration flows from Central and East European countries to the EU15 and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). This is likely to dominate migration flows into the EU+EFTA over the coming decades. This paper applies a gravity modelling approach to analyse patterns and drivers of the South-North migration corridor over the period 1995-2020 and explores bilateral mobility patterns from 75 sending countries in Africa, the Middle East and other EU neighbours to the EU28 and EFTA countries. The study finds that income gaps, diverging demographic trends, institutional and governance features and persisting political instability, but also higher climate risks in the neighbouring regions of the EU, are fuelling migration flows along the South-North corridor and will most likely continue to do so. |
| Keywords: | Migration, Africa, Middle East, Eastern EU partnership countries, migration to EU, demographic developments, refugees, migration policies, gravity modelling, climate risks |
| JEL: | F22 J11 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:198&r= |
| By: | Aliu, Florin; Mulaj, Isa |
| Abstract: | In the digital and artificial intelligence intensification era where up to 2/3 of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is generated from the service sector, nearly ¾ of household budget is spent by the Kosovo families in food and accommodation. This is a larger and greater share than in the neighboring countries to which Kosovo approximately has the same level of income per capita. At the same time, for some years spending for education until the recent available data remains below 1%, showing another difference with the neighboring countries in volume as well as in total share of household budget expenditures. Using the secondary data from the Kosovo Agency of Statistics (KAS) on household survey, this paper finds that the ongoing high share of income spending in food and accommodation at the expense of other sectors becomes a source of inefficiency. Moreover, this issue might plunge the households into unaffordable debts and problems with their future payments. The population on a large scale consider much of their life mission only through available incomes for food and housing (construction of houses and buying furniture) as a wealth. In contrast to the previous studies, the recommendations from the findings of our work address recommendations to the population, because the government, state and public institutions are a product of this people whose primary life objective is in buildings and consumption on individual, family and clannish bases. |
| Keywords: | Kosovo, household budget survey, housing, consumption, education |
| JEL: | D13 |
| Date: | 2020–10–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:107850&r= |
| By: | Baciu, Dan Costa (Delft University of Technology); Pietra, Diana Della |
| Abstract: | Evolution goes through cycles of diversification and growth. Here, we report empir-ical evidence to support this thesis in urbanism. Our research broadens theoretical work on evolutionary theory and breaks new ground for an entire range of applica-tions in the precise planning and management of urban environments and their architecture. |
| Date: | 2021–05–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:f43xh&r= |
| By: | Spitzer, Yannay; Tortorici, Gaspare; Zimran, Ariell |
| Abstract: | The Messina-Reggio Calabria Earthquake (1908) was the deadliest earthquake and arguably the most devastating natural disaster in modern European history. It occurred when overseas mass emigration from southern Italy was at its peak and international borders were open, making emigration a widespread phenomenon and a readily available option for disaster relief. We use this singular event and its unique and important context to study the effects of natural disasters on international migration. Using commune-level data on damage and annual emigration, we find that, despite massive destruction, there is no evidence that the earthquake had, on average, a large impact on emigration or its composition. There were, however, heterogeneous and offsetting responses to the shock, with a more positive effect on emigration in districts where agricultural day laborers comprised a larger share of the labor force, suggesting that attachment to the land was an impediment to reacting to the disaster through migration. Nonetheless, relative to the effects of ordinary shocks, such as a recession in the destination, this momentous event had a small impact on emigration rates. These findings contribute to literatures on climate- and disaster-driven migration and on the Age of Mass Migration. |
| Keywords: | Age of Mass Migration; Italy; migration; Natural Disasters; Refugees; US Immigration |
| JEL: | F22 J61 N3 O15 Q54 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15008&r= |
| By: | Anne Hansen (Roskilde Universitet [Roskilde]); Lars Fuglsang (Roskilde Universitet [Roskilde]); Faïz Gallouj (CLERSE - Centre Lillois d’Études et de Recherches Sociologiques et Économiques - UMR 8019 - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Ada Scupola (Roskilde Universitet [Roskilde]) |
| Abstract: | Social innovation, in the context of public innovation, has gained increased attention in the literature, and is approached relative to the third sector, to social enterprises, or as practices initiated by the public sector. However, the interplay among these actors in enabling social innovation is still underexplored. Therefore, the article investigates the role of social entrepreneurs from outside the public sector in enabling public sector innovation networks. Since social innovation is inherently relational, four cases demonstrating how social entrepreneurs have pushed the boundaries of public sector services, and hence expanded public innovation networks, are analysed. |
| Keywords: | public service innovation,social innovation,social entrepreneurs,innovation networks |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03230554&r= |
| By: | Yasuo Goto (Faculty of Social Innovation, Seijo University) |
| Abstract: | The real estate industry is a typical industry that suffered the most damage from the bursting of the bubble economy in Japan and seems to have not yet completely recovered from the severe situation overall. In this article we analyse the industry using comprehensive database which incorporate huge number of small and medium-sized enterprises. We confirmed that the real estate industry as a whole is not in a bad situation, but that the smallest tiers are performing poorly. It can be interpreted as not because of the large number of inefficient firms, but because of the high degree of inefficiency, in terms of inefficiency of firms which is evaluated with the criteria for “zombie” firm in this article. The average profit margin of SMEs in the real estate industry is relatively low, however, the proportion of zombie firms is not necessarily high. The problem is not the ratio of the number of zombies but the performance of zombies in the smallest class. In the real estate industry, relatively large-scale class generally has become out of the post-bubble situation. Improving the profitability of the smallest tier seems to be an unavoidable challenge for improving the performance of the industry as a whole. |
| Keywords: | firm dynamics, zombie firm, profit margin, bubble economy, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), size-dependent policy |
| JEL: | P43 L25 M13 G32 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:1059&r= |
| By: | Jedwab, Remi; Johnson, Noel; Koyama, Mark |
| Abstract: | The Black Death was the largest demographic shock in European history. We review the evidence for the origins, spread, and mortality of the disease. We document that it was a plausibly exogenous shock to the European economy and trace out its aggregate and local impacts in both the short-run and the long-run. The initial effect of the plague was highly disruptive. Wages and per capita income rose. But, in the long-run, this rise was only sustained in some parts of Europe. The other indirect long-run effects of the Black Death are associated with the growth of Europe relative to the rest of the world, especially Asia and the Middle East (the Great Divergence), a shift in the economic geography of Europe towards the Northwest (the Little Divergence), the demise of serfdom in Western Europe, a decline in the authority of religious institutions, and the emergence of stronger states. Finally, avenues for future research are laid out |
| Keywords: | Black Death; Cities; Demography; institutions; Long-run Growth; Malthusian Theory; Pandemics; Urbanization |
| JEL: | I14 I15 J11 N00 N13 O0 O43 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15132&r= |
| By: | Susan Edwards (Australian Catholic University) |
| Abstract: | This paper reports the findings of an integrative review of the literature conducted to gain insight into the relationship between process quality, curriculum and pedagogy. Process quality attends to those aspect of early childhood education and care (ECEC) provision associated with children’s interactions and experiences in the ECEC setting, including with peers, adults, materials and other resources. Process quality is considered an important mechanism for moving quality ECEC provision beyond structural dimensions of quality alone (e.g. child-to-adult ratios, minimum space requirements). Curriculum and pedagogy in this paper examines the definitional relationship between teaching and learning, with this relationship having implications for the extent to which identified features of the ECEC curriculum may be used to leverage increased process quality. This paper finds that defining the relationship between curriculum and pedagogy is required to facilitate the use of curriculum as a lever for process quality according to the socio-cultural context in which ECEC is intended for young children |
| Date: | 2021–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaab:247-en&r= |
| By: | Wang, Haoluan |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc21:311091&r= |
| By: | Aksoy, Cevat Giray |
| Abstract: | We provide the first large-scale evidence on self-selection of refugees and irregular migrants who arrived in Europe in 2015 or 2016. Our analysis uses unique datasets from the International Organization for Migration and Gallup World Polls. We find that refugees are positively self-selected with respect to human capital, as are female irregular migrants. Male irregular migrants are negatively self-selected. These patterns hold whether analyzing individually stated main reason to emigrate, country-level conflict intensity, or sub-regional conflict intensity. Several additional analyses show that our results are unlikely to be driven by omitted variable bias or liquidity constraints. We offer a theoretical framework to explain these patterns, by extending the Roy-Borjas model to include risks related to staying in an unsafe country of origin, risks related to migration, and gender specific returns to human capital. |
| Date: | 2021–05–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:bf7sy&r= |
| By: | Sajad Rahimian |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to identify the robust determinants of corruption after integrating out the effects of spatial spillovers in corruption levels between countries. In other words, we want to specify which variables play the most critical role in determining the corruption levels after accounting for the effects that neighbouring countries have on each other. We collected the annual data of 115 countries over the 1985-2015 period and used the averaged values to conduct our empirical analysis. Among 39 predictors of corruption, our spatial BMA models identify Rule of Law as the most persistent determinant of corruption. |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2105.12878&r= |
| By: | Daniel Graeber (DIW Berlin, University of Potsdam, CEPA, BSE); Felicitas Schikora (DIW Berlin, FU Berlin) |
| Abstract: | Against a background of increasing violence against non-natives, we estimate the effect of hate crime on refugees’ mental health in Germany. For this purpose, we combine two datasets: administrative records on xenophobic crime against refugee shelters by the Federal Criminal Office and the IAB-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Refugees. We apply a regression discontinuity in time design to estimate the effect of interest. Our results indicate that hate crime has a substantial negative effect on several mental health indicators, including the Mental Component Summary score and the Patient Health Questionnaire-4 score. The effects are stronger for refugees with closer geographic proximity to the focal hate crime and refugees with low country-specific human capital. While the estimated effect is only transitory, we argue that negative mental health shocks during the critical period after arrival have important long-term consequences. Keywords: Mental health, hate crime, migration, refugees, human capital. |
| Keywords: | mental health, hate crime, migration, refugees, human capital |
| JEL: | I10 J15 J24 F22 O15 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pot:cepadp:31&r= |
| By: | Duleep, Harriet; Jaeger, David A.; McHenry, Peter |
| Abstract: | We present a novel theory that immigrants facilitate innovation and entrepreneurship by being willing and able to invest in new skills. Immigrants whose human capital is not immediately transferable to the host country face lower opportunity costs of investing in new skills or methods and will be more exible in their human capital investments than observationally equivalent natives. Areas with large numbers of immigrants may therefore lead to more entrepreneurship and innovation, even among natives. We provide empirical evidence from the United States that is consistent with the theory's predictions. |
| Keywords: | immigration,innovation,entrepreneurship,human capital |
| JEL: | J15 J24 J39 J61 L26 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:846&r= |
| By: | Hinnosaar, Marit; Liu, Elaine M. |
| Abstract: | How malleable is alcohol consumption? Specifically, how much is alcohol consumption driven by the current environment versus individual characteristics? To answer this question, we analyze changes in alcohol purchases when consumers move from one state to another in the United States. Right after moving, movers' alcohol purchases converge sharply toward the average level in their destination state, implying that the current environment explains about two-thirds of the differences in alcohol purchases. The adjustment takes place both on the extensive and intensive margin. |
| Keywords: | Alcohol; Geographic variation; migration; Regulation; taxes |
| JEL: | D12 I12 I18 L66 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15196&r= |
| By: | Foellmi, Reto; Jäggi, Adrian; Schnell, Fabian |
| Abstract: | How does the exchange rate affect the way that firms adjust their prices? We use quarterly firm and product price data, underlying the Swiss sectoral consumer price index. The data allows us to trace the pricing decisions of the identified firm over time and as a function of the distance to the border distance. The appreciation of the Swiss franc results in an increase in the probability of both positive and negative price changes. When a firm is more closely located to the border, the probability of a negative price change is higher. On the intensive margin, we document that an appreciation of the Swiss Franc leads to price reductions, and that this effect is stronger the closer a firm is located to the nearest border. However, for firms located far away from the border, an appreciation of the Swiss Franc leads to no price reductions or even increases. We rationalise this by the relative strengths of income and substitution effects. The substitution effect dominates for firms close to the border, while the income effect dominates for firms located further away from the border. |
| Keywords: | Distance to Border; Exchange rate; Price Setting Behavior of Firms |
| JEL: | E30 E31 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15019&r= |