nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2021‒05‒17
57 papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Do City Borders Constrain Ethnic Diversity? By Scott W. Hegerty
  2. Quality of life in a dynamic spatial model By Ahlfeldt, Gabriel; Bald, Fabrian; Roth, Duncan; Seidel, Tobias
  3. The Long-Run Spillover Effects of Pollution : How Exposure to Lead Affects Everyone in the Classroom By Gazze, Ludovica; Persico, Claudia; Spirovska, Sandra
  4. Social Finance By Kuchler, Theresa; Ströbel, Johannes
  5. The Long-Run Spillover Effects of Pollution: How Exposure to Lead Affects Everyone in the Classroom By Ludovica Gazze; Claudia Persico; Sandra Spirovska
  6. Access to transportation, residential segregation, and economic opportunity By Kuzey Yilmaz; Muharrem Yesilirmak
  7. Investigating Socio-spatial Differences between Solo Ridehailing and Pooled Rides in Diverse Communities By Jason Soria; Amanda Stathopoulos
  8. A theoretical general equilibrium analysis of local teacher labor markets under different compensation regimes By Muharrem Yesilirmak
  9. Racial and Ethnic Differences in the Financial Returns to Home Purchases from 2007 to 2020 By Matthew E. Kahn
  10. The Long-Term Effects of Universal Preschool in Boston By Guthrie Gray-Lobe; Parag A. Pathak; Christopher R. Walters
  11. High Cost Lenders and the Geographic Concentration of Foreclosures By Stephen L. Ross; Yuan Wang
  12. The role of COVID-19 in spatial reorganization: Some evidence from Germany By Ehlert, Andree; Wedemeier, Jan; Zahlmann, Tabea
  13. Accounting for the Decline in Homeownership among the Young By Yuxi Yao
  14. The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Housing Returns and Volatility: Evidence from US State-Level Data By Renee van Eyden; Rangan Gupta; Christophe Andre; Xin Sheng
  15. School Closures During the 1918 Flu Pandemic By Ager, Philipp; Eriksson, Katherine; Karger, Ezra; Nencka, Peter; Thomasson, Melissa A.
  16. Effects of Scaling Up Private School Choice Programs on Public School Students By David N. Figlio; Cassandra M.D. Hart; Krzysztof Karbownik
  17. Deeply decarbonizing residential and urban central districts through photovoltaics plus electric vehicle applications By Takuro Kobashi; Younghun Choi; Yujiro Hirano; Yoshiki Yamagata; Kelvin Say
  18. Population displacement and urban conflict: Global evidence from more than 3300 flood events By Maria del Pilar López-Uribe; David Castells-Quintana; Thomas K.J. McDermott
  19. Credit Constraints, Labor Productivity and the Role of Regional Institutions: Evidence from Manufacturing Firms in Europe By Brezzi, Monica; Ganau, Roberto; Maslauskaite, Kristina; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés
  20. Safety in Smart, Livable Cities: Acknowledging the Human Factor By Steve J. Bickley; Alison Macintyre; Benno Torgler
  21. Urban Analytics: History, Trajectory, and Critique By Boeing, Geoff; Batty, Michael; Jiang, Shan; Schweitzer, Lisa
  22. Quality of government and regional trade: Evidence from European Union regions By Barbero Jiménez, Javier; Madras, Giovanni; Rodríguez-Crespo, Ernesto; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés
  23. The Tale of the Two Italies: Regional Price Parities Accounting for Differences in the Quality of Services By Martina Menon; Federico Perali; Ranjan Ray; Nicola Tommasi
  24. Duisburg and its port, endpoint of China's silk road: Opportunities and risks By Pascha, Werner
  25. School Reopenings, Mobility, and COVID-19 Spread: Evidence from Texas By Charles J. Courtemanche; Anh H. Le; Aaron Yelowitz; Ron Zimmer
  26. Personnel Management and School Productivity: Evidence from India By Lemos, Renata; Muralidharan, Karthik; Scur, Daniela
  27. The Local Approach to Causal Inference under Network Interference By Eric Auerbach; Max Tabord-Meehan
  28. Immigration, crime, and crime (Mis)perceptions By Nicolás Ajzenman; Patricio Domínguez; Raimundo Undurraga
  29. How Unique is Milwaukee's 53206? An Examination of Disaggregated Socioeconomic Characteristics Across the City and Beyond By Scott W. Hegerty
  30. Housing “Affordability” and Responses During Times of Stress: A Brief Global Review By Stephen Malpezzi
  31. Innovation Diffusion and Physician Networks: Keyhole Surgery for Cancer in the English NHS By Barrenho, Eliana; Gautier, Eric; Miraldo, Marisa; Propper, Carol; Rose, Christiern
  32. Altruism or money? Reducing teacher sorting using behavioral strategies in Peru By Nicolás Ajzenman; Eleonora Bertoni; Gregory Elacqua; Luana Marotta; Carolina Méndez Vargas
  33. The Globalization of Refugee Flows By Devictor, Xavier; Do, Quy-Toan; Levchenko, Andrei A.
  34. When the Great Equalizer Shuts Down: Schools, Peers, and Parents in Pandemic Times By Agostinelli, Francesco; Doepke, Matthias; Sorrenti, Giuseppe; Zilibotti, Fabrizio
  35. Benchmarking “Smart City” Technology Adoption in California: Developing and Piloting a Data Collection Approach By Frick, Karen Trappenburg PhD; Kumar, Tanu PhD; Mendonça Abreu, Giselle Kristina; Post, Alison PhD
  36. The Refugee's Dilemma: Evidence from Jewish Migration out of Nazi Germany By Buggle, Johannes; Mayer, Thierry; Sakalli, Seyhun; Thoenig, Mathias
  37. Interregional Contact and National Identity By Bagues, Manuel; Roth, Christopher
  38. Combinatorial knowledge bases, proximity and agency across space: the case of the high-end medical device industry in Shanghai By Shuaijun Xue; Robert Hassink
  39. The Rate of Return on Real Estate: Long-Run Micro-Level Evidence By Chambers, David; Spaenjers, Christophe; Steiner, Eva
  40. Innovation in Malmö after the Öresund Bridge By Ejermo, Olof; Hussinger, Katrin; Kalash, Basheer; Schubert, Torben
  41. Productivity, Place, and Plants By Benjamin Schoefer; Oren Ziv
  42. All aboard: The effects of port development By Ducruet, Cesar; Juhász, Réka; Nagy, Dávid Krisztián; Steinwender, Claudia
  43. Neighborhood Change and Residential Instability in Oakland By Vineet Gupta; Jackelyn Hwang; Bina Shrimali
  44. Tourism and economic growth: an application to coastal regions in the Mediterranean area By Nicola Camatti; Luca Salmasi; Jan van der Borg
  45. Household Debt Overhang Did Hardly Cause a Larger Spending Fall during the Financial Crisis in Australia By Lars E.O. Svensson
  46. Quarterly Youth Unemployment Rates in Large Metro Areas, 2020–2021 By Hande Inanc; Megan McIntyre
  47. Wars, Taxation and Representation: Evidence from Five Centuries of German History By Becker, Sascha O.; Ferrara, Andreas; Melander, Eric; Pascali, Luigi
  48. Climate policy and transition risk in the housing market By Ferentinos, Konstantinos; Gibberd, Alex; Guin, Benjamin
  49. Sustainable community development: Integrating social and environmental sustainability for sustainable housing and communities By Nessa Winston
  50. Markups Across Space and Time By Anderson, Eric; Rebelo, Sérgio; Wong, Arlene
  51. Salience and accountability: School infrastructure and last-minute electoral punishment By Nicolás Ajzenman; Ruben Durante
  52. Assessing the tourism sustainability of EU regions at the NUTS-2 level with a composite and regionalised indicator By Dario Bertocchi; Nicola Camatti; Luca Salmasi; Jan van der Borg
  53. Social emotional learning in the classroom: One-year follow-up results from PERSPEKT 2.0 By Anna Folke Larsen; Marianne Simonsen
  54. Social Distancing During a Pandemic - The Role of Friends By Bailey, Michael; Johnston, Drew; Koenen, Martin; Kuchler, Theresa; Russel, Dominic; Ströbel, Johannes
  55. The urban wage premium in imperfect labor markets By Boris, Hirsch; Jahn, Elke J.; Manning, Alan; Oberfichtner, Michael
  56. Labor Market Assimilation of South-South Forced Migrants: Evidence from a Small Open Latin American Economy By Javier Torres; Francisco Galarza
  57. Spillover Effects in Empirical Corporate Finance By Berg, Tobias; Reisinger, Markus; Streitz, Daniel

  1. By: Scott W. Hegerty
    Abstract: U.S. metropolitan areas, particularly in the industrial Midwest and Northeast, are well-known for high levels of racial segregation. This is especially true where core cities end and suburbs begin; often crossing the street can lead to physically similar, but much less ethnically diverse, suburban neighborhood. While these differences are often visually or "intuitively" apparent, this study seeks to quantify them using Geographic Information Systems and a variety of statistical methods. 2016 Census block group data are used to calculate an ethnic Herfindahl index for a set of two dozen large U.S. cities and their contiguous suburbs. Then, a mathematical method is developed to calculate a block-group-level "Border Disparity Index" (BDI), which is shown to vary by MSA and by specific suburbs. Its values can be compared across the sample to examine which cities are more likely to have borders that separate more-diverse block groups from less-diverse ones. The index can also be used to see which core cities are relatively more or less diverse than their suburbs, and which individual suburbs have the largest disparities vis-\`a-vis their core city. Atlanta and Detroit have particularly diverse suburbs, while Milwaukee's are not. Regression analysis shows that income differences and suburban shares of Black residents play significant roles in explaining variation across suburbs.
    Date: 2021–05
  2. By: Ahlfeldt, Gabriel; Bald, Fabrian; Roth, Duncan; Seidel, Tobias
    Abstract: We develop a dynamic spatial model in which heterogeneous workers are imperfectly mobile and forward-looking and yet all structural fundamentals can be inverted without assuming that the economy is in a stationary spatial equilibrium. Exploiting this novel feature of the model, we show that the canonical spatial equilibrium framework understates spatial quality-of-life differentials, the urban quality-of-life premium and the value of local non-marketed goods. Unlike the canonical spatial equilibrium framework, the model quantitatively accounts for local welfare effects that motivate many place-based policies seeking to improve quality of life.
    Keywords: COVID; Dynamic; Housing; migration; pollution; productivity; Quality of life; rents; spatial equilibrium; wages
    JEL: J2 J3 R2 R3 R5
    Date: 2020–12
  3. By: Gazze, Ludovica (Department of Economics, University of Warwick); Persico, Claudia (Department of Public Administration and Policy, School of Public Affairs, American University and IZA); Spirovska, Sandra (Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison)
    Abstract: Children exposed to pollutants like lead are more disruptive and have lower achievement. However, little is known about whether lead-exposed children affect the long-run outcomes of their peers. We estimate these spillover effects using new data on preschool blood lead levels (BLLs) matched to education data for all students in North Carolina public schools. We compare siblings whose school-grade cohorts differ in the proportion of children with elevated BLLs, holding constant school and peers’ demographics. Having more lead-exposed peers is associated with lower high-school graduation and SAT-taking rates and increased suspensions and absences. Peer effects are larger for same-gendered students.
    Keywords: Lead Poisoning ; Spillovers ; Peer Effects ; Human Capital JEL Classification: Q52 ; I14 ; I24
    Date: 2021
  4. By: Kuchler, Theresa; Ströbel, Johannes
    Abstract: We review an empirical literature that studies the role of social interactions in driving economic and financial decision making. We first summarize recent work that documents an important role of social interactions in explaining household decisions in housing and mortgage markets. This evidence shows, for example, that there are large peer effects in mortgage refinancing decisions and that individuals' beliefs about the attractiveness of housing market investments are affected by the recent house price experiences of their friends. We also summarize the evidence that social interactions affect the stock market investments of both retail and professional investors as well as household financial decisions such as retirement savings, borrowing, and default. Along the way, we describe a number of easily accessible recent data sets for the study of social interactions in finance, including the "Social Connectedness Index,'' which measures the frequency of Facebook friendship links across geographic regions. We conclude by outlining several promising directions for further research in the field of "social finance.''
    Date: 2020–12
  5. By: Ludovica Gazze; Claudia Persico; Sandra Spirovska
    Abstract: Children exposed to pollutants like lead are more disruptive and have lower achievement. However, little is known about whether lead-exposed children affect the long-run outcomes of their peers. We estimate these spillover effects using new data on preschool blood lead levels (BLLs) matched to education data for all students in North Carolina public schools. We compare siblings whose school-grade cohorts differ in the proportion of children with elevated BLLs, holding constant school and peers’ demographics. Having more lead-exposed peers is associated with lower high-school graduation and SAT-taking rates and increased suspensions and absences. Peer effects are larger for same-gendered students.
    JEL: I14 I24 Q52
    Date: 2021–05
  6. By: Kuzey Yilmaz (Cleveland State University); Muharrem Yesilirmak (ADA University & CERGE-EI)
    Abstract: The Housing Choice Voucher Program assists low-income families to afford decent housing and provide them with better economic opportunities. There is growing evidence that public transportation plays an important role in shaping the residential location choices of low-income households. However, transportation has not been a major focus of the research related to housing voucher programs. We develop a general equilibrium model of a city with multiple districts, decentralized employment, multiple commuting modes, and locally financed education. We compare housing vouchers with transportation vouchers with respect to poverty deconcentration, educational quality in each district, unskilled employment in the suburbs, and welfare.
    Keywords: Affordable Housing, Transportation Access, Residential Segregation, Hybrid Tiebout Model
    JEL: R28 H40 D60 H50
    Date: 2021–05–01
  7. By: Jason Soria; Amanda Stathopoulos
    Abstract: Transformative mobility services present both considerable opportunities and challenges for urban mobility systems. Increasing attention is being paid to ridehailing platforms and connections between demand and continuous innovation in service features; one of these features is dynamic ride-pooling. To disentangle how ridehailing impacts existing transportation networks and its ability to support economic vitality and community livability it is essential to consider the distribution of demand across diverse communities. In this paper we expand the literature on ridehailing demand by exploring community variation and spatial dependence in ridehailing use. Specifically, we investigate the diffusion and role of solo requests versus ride-pooling to shed light on how different mobility services, with different environmental and accessibility implications, are used by diverse communities. This paper employs a Social Disadvantage Index, Transit Access Analysis, and a Spatial Durbin Model to investigate the influence of both local and spatial spillover effects on the demand for shared and solo ridehailing. The analysis of 127 million ridehailing rides, of which 15% are pooled, confirms the presence of spatial effects. Results indicate that density and vibrancy variables have analogue effects, both direct and indirect, on demand for solo vs pooled rides. Instead, our analysis reveals significant contrasting effects for socio-economic disadvantage, which is positively correlated with ride-pooling and negatively with solo rides. Additionally, we find that higher rail transit access is associated with higher demand for both solo and pooled ridehailing along with substantial spatial spillovers. We discuss implications for policy, operations and research related to the novel insight on how pooled ridesourcing relate to geography, living conditions, and transit interactions.
    Date: 2021–05
  8. By: Muharrem Yesilirmak (ADA University & CERGE-EI)
    Abstract: Bargaining power of teacher unions over teacher wages has been either reduced or eliminated by several states in U.S. since 2011. This caused public school districts to move away from single salary schedules (fixed compensation regime) and adapt a flexible compensation regime at which teacher wage rises with quality (value added). In this paper, using a fully tractable general equilibrium model of local teacher labor markets, we theoretically analyze the eect of dierent compensation regimes on teacher eorts and average teacher quality in a district. In our model, teachers, heterogeneous in exogenously set quality, endogenously sort across two districts and also choose teaching eorts. Districts dier by endogenous teacher wages and exogenous revenues. The marginal disutility of eort for a teacher is dierent across the districts. Teacher labor markets clear in each district and teacher wages are determined. We solve for the unique equilibrium under each compensation regime and theoretically show that low(high) quality teachers exert the highest eort under fixed(flexible) compensation regime and exert the lowest eort under flexible(fixed) compensation regime. Also, we show that average teacher quality is highest in each district under flexible compensation regime and lowest in each district under fixed compensation regime. Our findings are consistent with several empirical studies.
    Keywords: teacher labor markets, teacher compensation regimes, teacher spatial sorting, teacher effort
    JEL: I21 I28 J20
    Date: 2021–05–01
  9. By: Matthew E. Kahn
    Abstract: The racial and ethnic composition of home buyers varies across geographic locations. For example, Asians and Hispanics are much more likely to buy homes in California than Blacks and Blacks are more likely to buy homes in Georgia than other demographic groups. Home prices grow at different rates across geographic units such as counties or zip codes. Hedonic bundling inhibits buyers from purchasing shares of different homes and forming a spatially diversified housing portfolio. Spatial variation in purchases suggests that the average rate of return to housing varies across racial and ethnic groups. To test this claim, I construct a geographic shift-share index by combining Zillow geographic specific home price index data with HMDA micro data. The shift share calculations yield the average rate of return to home ownership by purchase year, and sale year for different demographic groups. Over the years 2007 to 2020, Blacks earned a lower rate of return on home purchases than Asians and Hispanics and the sample average. Within geographic areas, average loan differences across racial and ethnic groups are very small.
    JEL: R21 R3 R31
    Date: 2021–05
  10. By: Guthrie Gray-Lobe; Parag A. Pathak; Christopher R. Walters
    Abstract: We use admissions lotteries to estimate the effects of large-scale public preschool in Boston on college-going, college preparation, standardized test scores, and behavioral outcomes. Preschool enrollment boosts college attendance, as well as SAT test-taking and high school graduation. Preschool also decreases several disciplinary measures including juvenile incarceration, but has no detectable impact on state achievement test scores. An analysis of subgroups shows that effects on college enrollment, SAT-taking, and disciplinary outcomes are larger for boys than for girls. Our findings illustrate possibilities for large-scale modern, public preschool and highlight the importance of measuring long-term and non-test score outcomes in evaluating the effectiveness of education programs.
    JEL: I20 I21 I24 I28
    Date: 2021–05
  11. By: Stephen L. Ross; Yuan Wang
    Abstract: We define high cost lenders as lenders that issue a disproportionate number of high cost loans. We develop a shift-share measure to capture the market representation of these high cost lenders in housing submarkets. After conditioning on housing submarket fixed effects, origination year fixed effects and trends over origination years based on housing submarket attributes, the magnitude of the estimated relationship is very stable as detailed controls for borrower attributes, credit score and loan terms are added. The relationship between the representation of high cost lenders and foreclosure is broad based across borrowers and types of loans, but is strongest for loans originated by high cost lenders whether or not the loans themselves are high cost. We investigate three potential mechanisms: reverse causality where high cost lenders respond to an increase in demand from higher risk borrowers, the types of mortgages issued when high cost lenders increase their market presence, and the behavior of loan servicers when a cohort of loans contains a large number of loans issued by high cost lenders. While we do not have direct information on loan servicers, our evidence points towards foreclosure decisions during the crisis as the primary mechanism behind our findings.
    JEL: D14 G01 G21 R21 R23
    Date: 2021–05
  12. By: Ehlert, Andree; Wedemeier, Jan; Zahlmann, Tabea
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the role of regional demographic, socioeconomic and political factors on changes in mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic. It provides new empirical evidence for the regional differentiation of lockdown measures and indicates a possible reorganization of spatial economic and social activities beyond the course of the pandemic. Spatial econometric models are analyzed using data from the 401 counties in Germany. Our results show that, for example, current high caseloads are negatively related to changes in mobility, whereas a region's socioeconomic composition and rural location have a positive effect. The political and economic implications of the findings are discussed.
    Keywords: economic geography,COVID-19 pandemic,lockdown,regional interaction,mobility,spatial econometrics
    JEL: R10 R11 R12
    Date: 2021
  13. By: Yuxi Yao (University of Western Ontario)
    Abstract: This paper documents that the drop in young homeownership is more persistent among non-college graduates compared to college graduates: while some college graduates postpone home purchasing, non-college graduates are more likely to remain longterm renters. I develop a model showing that the combination of a higher share of college graduates and a widening education-driven income gap accounts for the delayed home purchasing of college graduates and the lack of purchasing among non-college graduates. Exploiting cross-city variation, I find that the mechanism can quantitatively account for the diverging ownership decisions between the two education groups from 1980 to 2019.
    Keywords: Housing Tenure Choice, College Share, Household Income, Housing Prices, General Equilibrium Effects
    JEL: E21 E60 R21
    Date: 2021–04–29
  14. By: Renee van Eyden (University of Pretoria); Rangan Gupta (University of Pretoria); Christophe Andre (OECD); Xin Sheng (Anglia Ruskin University)
    Abstract: In this chapter, we first estimate a dynamic factor model with time-varying loadings and stochastic volatility (DFM-TV-SV) using Bayesian methods to disentangle the national and local factors affecting real housing returns and volatility in the 50 US states and the District of Columbia. We then use panel data regressions with heterogeneous coefficients to relate the first and second-moment of the local factors to corresponding state-level uncertainty. The latter is estimated using the average forecast error variance of a range of regional variables and 248 national-level data series in a factor augmented forecasting regression with stochastic volatility in the regression residuals and the error term for the factor dynamics. We estimate uncertainty at a forecasting horizon of one to four quarters over the periods 1977Q2 to 2015Q3 and 1991Q1 to 2015Q3, depending on model specifications. We find that all but three states register a positive and significant spillover effect from macroeconomic uncertainty to house price stochastic volatility, with Hawaii and Michigan ranking highest in terms of spillover effects. The majority of the most severely impacted states are from the Midwest region, as well as a number of states in the Southern region, known to be lower income states. A negative impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on house price returns is recorded in some states, notably from the Midwest region. Our results have important implications for homeowners, mortgage lenders and investors.
    Keywords: Uncertainty, Housing Returns and Volatility, Dynamic Factor Model, Panel Data Estimation, US State-Level Data
    JEL: C32 C33 D8 R31
    Date: 2021–04–20
  15. By: Ager, Philipp; Eriksson, Katherine; Karger, Ezra; Nencka, Peter; Thomasson, Melissa A.
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has reignited interest in responses to the 1918-19 influenza pandemic, the last comparable U.S. public health emergency. During both pandemics, many state and local governments made the controversial decision to close schools. We study the short- and long-run effects of 1918-19 pandemic-related school closures on children. We find precise null effects of school closures in 1918 on school attendance in 1919-20 using newly collected data on the exact timing of school closures for 168 cities in 1918-19. Linking affected children to their adult outcomes in the 1940 census, we also find precise null effects of school closures on adult educational attainment, wage income, non-wage income, and hours worked in 1940. Our results are not inconsistent with an emerging literature that finds negative short-run effects of COVID-19-related school closures on learning. The situation in 1918 was starkly different from today: (1) schools closed in 1918 for many fewer days on average, (2) the 1918 virus was much deadlier to young adults and children, boosting absenteeism even in schools that stayed open, and (3) the lack of effective remote learning platforms in 1918 may have reduced the scope for school closures to increase socioeconomic inequality.
    Keywords: 1918-19 Influenza Pandemic; Educational Attainment; School Closures
    JEL: I18 I26 N32
    Date: 2020–12
  16. By: David N. Figlio; Cassandra M.D. Hart; Krzysztof Karbownik
    Abstract: Using a rich dataset that merges student-level school records with birth records, and leveraging a student fixed effects design, we explore how the massive scale-up of a Florida private school choice program affected public school students’ outcomes. Program expansion modestly benefited students (through higher standardized test scores and lower absenteeism and suspension rates) attending public schools closer to more pre-program private school options. Effects are particularly pronounced for lower-income students, but results are positive for more affluent students as well. Local and district-wide private school competition are both independently related to student outcomes.
    Keywords: school choice, school competition, externalities, student achievement, behavioural outcomes
    JEL: H75 I21 I22 I28
    Date: 2021
  17. By: Takuro Kobashi; Younghun Choi; Yujiro Hirano; Yoshiki Yamagata; Kelvin Say
    Abstract: With the costs of renewable energy technologies declining, new forms of urban energy systems are emerging that can be established in a cost-effective way. The SolarEV City concept has been proposed that uses rooftop Photovoltaics (PV) to its maximum extent, combined with Electric Vehicle (EV) with bi-directional charging for energy storage. Urban environments consist of various areas, such as residential and commercial districts, with different energy consumption patterns, building structures, and car parks. The cost effectiveness and decarbonization potentials of PV + EV and PV (+ battery) systems vary across these different urban environments and change over time as cost structures gradually shift. To evaluate these characteristics, we performed techno-economic analyses of PV, battery, and EV technologies for a residential area in Shinchi, Fukushima and the central commercial district of Kyoto, Japan between 2020 and 2040. We found that PV + EV and PV only systems in 2020 are already cost competitive relative to existing energy systems (grid electricity and gasoline car). In particular, the PV + EV system rapidly increases its economic advantage over time, particularly in the residential district which has larger PV capacity and EV battery storage relative to the size of energy demand. Electricity exchanges between neighbors (e.g., peer-to-peer or microgrid) further enhanced the economic value (net present value) and decarbonization potential of PV + EV systems up to 23 percent and 7 percent in 2030, respectively. These outcomes have important strategic implications for urban decarbonization over the coming decades.
    Date: 2021–05
  18. By: Maria del Pilar López-Uribe; David Castells-Quintana; Thomas K.J. McDermott
    Abstract: In this paper, we study the effect of displacement of population into cities on urban conflict in developing countries. To do so, we construct a novel measure of exposure to floods, using data on more than 3,300 flood events worldwide, as an exogenous source of population displacement. We combine this with city level observations of more than 9,000 urban social disorder events. Exposure to floods is found to be associated with higher likelihood and frequency of urban social disorder. Our evidence suggests that the effects of floods on urban disorder occur mainly through the displacement of population into large cities. Exploring the information on urban disorder events in more detail, we find that the association between city growth and urban disorder is strongest for events related to public service provision, wages and food prices.
    Keywords: climate change; floods; displacement; urbanization; conflict; social disorder
    JEL: O18 Q34 Q54 Q56 R23
    Date: 2021–05–03
  19. By: Brezzi, Monica; Ganau, Roberto; Maslauskaite, Kristina; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between credit constraints â?? proxied by the investment-to-cash flow sensitivity â?? and firm-level economic performance â?? defined in terms of labor productivity â?? during the period 2009-2016, using a sample of 22,380 manufacturing firms from 11 European countries. It also assesses how regional institutional quality affects productivity at the level of the firm both directly and indirectly. The empirical results highlight that credit rationing is rife and represents a serious barrier for improvements in firm-level productivity and that this effect is far greater for micro and small than for larger firms. Moreover, high-quality regional institutions foster productivity and help mitigate the negative credit constraints-labor productivity relationship that limits the economic performance of European firms. Dealing with the European productivity conundrum thus requires greater attention to existing credit constraints for micro and small firms, although in many areas of Europe access to credit will become more effective if institutional quality is improved.
    Keywords: credit constraints; Cross-Country Analysis; Europe; labor productivity; Manufacturing firms; Regional Institutions
    JEL: C23 D24 G32 H41 R12
    Date: 2020–11
  20. By: Steve J. Bickley; Alison Macintyre; Benno Torgler
    Abstract: AI and Big Data provide opportunities and challenges with respect to how we achieve safety in livable smart cities. In this contribution, we look at set of aspects that are important at the city level; namely, how urban analytics and digital technologies can be used; how crime safety is influenced by predictive policing; how city planning and urban development can use real- time data; how complexity is connected to traffic safety; how AI offers opportunities for public health; and what are the societal implications of using, applying, or implementing new technologies. A core argument of the paper is the significance of acknowledging the ‘human factor’ when using smart technologies to design a safe and livable smart city.
    Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Big Data; Smart City; Sustainability; Human Factors
    Date: 2021–05
  21. By: Boeing, Geoff (Northeastern University); Batty, Michael; Jiang, Shan; Schweitzer, Lisa
    Abstract: Urban analytics combines spatial analysis, statistics, computer science, and urban planning to understand and shape city futures. While it promises better policymaking insights, concerns exist around its epistemological scope and impacts on privacy, ethics, and social control. This chapter reflects on the history and trajectory of urban analytics as a scholarly and professional discipline. In particular, it considers the direction in which this field is going and whether it improves our collective and individual welfare. It first introduces early theories, models, and deductive methods from which the field originated before shifting toward induction. It then explores urban network analytics that enrich traditional representations of spatial interaction and structure. Next it discusses urban applications of spatiotemporal big data and machine learning. Finally, it argues that privacy and ethical concerns are too often ignored as ubiquitous monitoring and analytics can empower social repression. It concludes with a call for a more critical urban analytics that recognizes its epistemological limits, emphasizes human dignity, and learns from and supports marginalized communities.
    Date: 2021–05–14
  22. By: Barbero Jiménez, Javier; Madras, Giovanni; Rodríguez-Crespo, Ernesto; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés
    Abstract: This paper examines â?? using a novel database of regional trade flows between 267 European regions for 2013 â?? how government quality affects trade between European Union (EU) regions. The results of a structural gravity cross-sectional analysis of trade show that trade across EU regions is highly influenced by differences in regional government quality. This influence varies by sector of economic activity and by the level of economic development of the region. The results indicate that, if the less developed regions of the EU want to engage in greater interregional trade, improving their institutional quality is a must.
    Keywords: gravity model of trade; institutions; quality of government; regional policy; structural estimation; Trade
    JEL: E02 F15 R10
    Date: 2021–01
  23. By: Martina Menon; Federico Perali; Ranjan Ray; Nicola Tommasi
    Abstract: This study estimates regional price parities (RPP) in Italy based on household budget data and estimated pseudo unit values to compare living standards between Italian regions. The simultaneous consideration of spatial variation in prices and in quality of services between regions is a distinctive feature of this study. The study makes a methodological contribution by proposing a quality adjustment procedure to spatial price calculations whose appeal extends beyond Italy to the international context of cross-country PPP calculations. The average difference in the true cost of living between North and South is about 30-40 percent depending on the regions selected for comparison. Such a divide in cost of living and in market efficiency, probably one of the highest differentials in the world, is the traditional incipit of the tale of the two Italies. The estimations of RPP allows us to investigate the policy conundrum of why Italians, and dependent workers in particular, do not migrate towards the South given the much lower cost of living there. The answer, which takes us closer to the end of the tale, lies partly in the superior quality of services in the North and partly in the severe restriction on job opportunities in the South, especially for female earners.
    Keywords: price parities, cost of living, quality of public services, unit values.
    Date: 2021
  24. By: Pascha, Werner
    Abstract: The question to what extent the EU, Germany, its regional states or individual localities can and should cooperate with China has gained considerable importance recently. This paper discusses the city of Duisburg, an important logistics hub in western Germany, next to the rivers Rhine and Ruhr, as a particularly interesting case study. Its location is ideal as the "western terminus" for the rail services of the "new silk road", but the precarious economic situation as a former city of steel and coal make Duisburg particularly vulnerable to economic and political risks. The paper identifies relevant pro and con factors and evaluates the available evidence. The economic heritage and current situation of Duisburg are indeed challenging. Duisburg has noticeably profited from the Chinese interest in its logistics network, but the impetus is not significant enough for the city to fully recover from the decline of coal and steel industries. A large share of the potential benefits has probably already been realized, while current plans to increase the container capacity of the port further should be duly acknowledged. Positive linkage effects with other industries, beyond rail and logistics, still seem rather limited. With respect to the political dimension, the typical risks for local communities often associated with the Belt and Road Initiative were somewhat limited in Duisburg's case, because Duisburg, as a part of Germany, is not in a particularly dire situation and as Duisburg's port activities are profitable even without the China business, so the potential leverage of Chinese actors is limited, and because Duisburg is not the home of many high-tech companies that might be attractive targets. In the case of the Duisburg-Huawei cooperation, which does indeed hold some political risks, the momentum has declined recently, due to the various checks and balances that are in place, while the win-win projects of the agenda will hopefully still be realized. Both the idea of an economic bonanza beckoning on the horizon and the concern about looming political risks seem to have been exaggerated. Currently, the city seems to be in a phase of reconsidering its future options and possible trajectories with respect to China.
    Keywords: Duisburg,China,New silk road,Belt and Road Initiative,regional economic development
    Date: 2021
  25. By: Charles J. Courtemanche; Anh H. Le; Aaron Yelowitz; Ron Zimmer
    Abstract: This paper examines the effect of fall 2020 school reopenings in Texas on county-level COVID-19 cases and fatalities. Previous evidence suggests that schools can be reopened safely if community spread is low and public health guidelines are followed. However, in Texas, reopenings often occurred alongside high community spread and at near capacity, making it difficult to meet social distancing recommendations. Using event-study models and hand-collected instruction modality and start dates for all school districts, we find robust evidence that reopening Texas schools gradually but substantially accelerated the community spread of COVID-19. Results from our preferred specification imply that school reopenings led to at least 43,000 additional COVID-19 cases and 800 additional fatalities within the first two months. We then use SafeGraph mobility data to provide evidence that spillovers to adults’ behaviors contributed to these large effects. Median time spent outside the home on a typical weekday increased substantially in neighborhoods with large numbers of school-age children, suggesting a return to in-person work or increased outside-of-home leisure activities among parents.
    JEL: I18 I28
    Date: 2021–05
  26. By: Lemos, Renata; Muralidharan, Karthik; Scur, Daniela
    Abstract: This paper uses new data to study school management and productivity in India. We report four main results. First, management quality in public schools is low, and ~2 s.d. below high-income countries with comparable data. Second, private schools have higher management quality, driven by much stronger people management. Third, people management quality is correlated with both independent measures of teaching practice, as well as school productivity measured by student value added. Fourth, private school teacher pay is positively correlated with teacher effectiveness, and better-managed private schools are more likely to retain more effective teachers. Neither pattern is seen in public schools.
    Keywords: Management Practices; school performance; student value added
    JEL: I25 M5 O1
    Date: 2021–01
  27. By: Eric Auerbach; Max Tabord-Meehan
    Abstract: We propose a new unified framework for causal inference when outcomes depend on how agents are linked in a social or economic network. Such network interference describes a large literature on treatment spillovers, social interactions, social learning, information diffusion, social capital formation, and more. Our approach works by first characterizing how an agent is linked in the network using the configuration of other agents and connections nearby as measured by path distance. The impact of a policy or treatment assignment is then learned by pooling outcome data across similarly configured agents. In the paper, we propose a new nonparametric modeling approach and consider two applications to causal inference. The first application is to testing policy irrelevance/no treatment effects. The second application is to estimating policy effects/treatment response. We conclude by evaluating the finite-sample properties of our estimation and inference procedures via simulation.
    Date: 2021–05
  28. By: Nicolás Ajzenman (Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV); Patricio Domínguez (Inter-American Development Bank); Raimundo Undurraga (University of Chile)
    Abstract: This paper studies the effects of immigration on crime and crime perceptions in Chile, where the foreign-born population more than doubled in the last decade. By using individual-level victimization data, we document null effects of immigration on crime but positive and significant effects on crime-related concerns, which in turn triggered preventive behavioral responses, such as investing in home-security. Our results are robust across a two-way fixed effects model and an IV strategy based on a shift-share instrument that exploits immigration inflows towards destination countries other than Chile. On mechanisms, we examine data on crime-related news on TV and in newspapers, and find a disproportionate coverage of immigrant-perpetrated homicides as well as a larger effect of immigration on crime perceptions in municipalities with a stronger media presence. These effects might explain the widening gap between actual crime trends and public perceptions of crime.
    Keywords: crime immigration crime perception media crime beliefs
    JEL: O15 F22 K1
    Date: 2021–04
  29. By: Scott W. Hegerty
    Abstract: Milwaukee's 53206 ZIP code, located on the city's near North Side, has drawn considerable attention for its poverty and incarceration rates, as well as for its large proportion of vacant properties. As a result, it has benefited from targeted policies at the city level. Keeping in mind that ZIP codes are often not the most effective unit of geographic analysis, this study investigates Milwaukee's socioeconomic conditions at the block group level. These smaller areas' statistics are then compared with those of their corresponding ZIP codes. The 53206 ZIP code is compared against others in Milwaukee for eight socioeconomic variables and is found to be near the extreme end of most rankings. This ZIP code would also be among Chicago's most extreme areas, but would lie near the middle of the rankings if located in Detroit. Parts of other ZIP codes, which are often adjacent, are statistically similar to 53206, however--suggesting that a focus solely on ZIP codes, while a convenient shorthand, might overlook neighborhoods that have similar need for investment. A multivariate index created for this study performs similarly to a standard multivariate index of economic deprivation if spatial correlation is taken into account, confirming that poverty and other socioeconomic stresses are clustered, both in the 53206 ZIP code and across Milwaukee.
    Date: 2021–05
  30. By: Stephen Malpezzi (University of Wisconsin-Madison)
    Abstract: This paper is based on a presentation to the City University of Hong Kong Workshop on “Postcrisis Housing Market and Financial Stability: Recovery Without Affordability?” held virtually on July 9, 2020, with revisions. That presentation and this paper are in turn based partly on several larger reviews of housing affordability, the coronavirus and its effects on housing and urban development, and potential shocks. Many colleagues have commented on and otherwise contributed to those efforts, including Brent Ambrose, Shlomo Angel, David Barker, Alain Bertaud, Julia Coronado, Morris Davis, Mike Eriksen, Eugene Flynn, Allen Goodman, Jacques Gordon, Richard Green, Marja Hoek, Harvey Jacobs, Kyung-Hwan Kim, Charles Ka Yui Leung, David Ling, Jaime Luque, Duncan Maclennan, Antonio Mello, Stani Milcheva, Norm Miller, Bertrand Renaud, Andy Reschovsky, Jenny Schuetz, Dale Whittington and Jiro Yoshido. Seminar participants at USC and Penn State as well as the participants in the City University of Hong Kong Workshop also provided useful suggestions. Naturally, none of these colleagues are responsible for the results.
    Date: 2021–05–01
  31. By: Barrenho, Eliana; Gautier, Eric; Miraldo, Marisa; Propper, Carol; Rose, Christiern
    Abstract: We examine the effect of a physician network on medical innovation using novel matched patient-physician-hospital panel data. The data include every relevant physician and all patients in the English NHS for 15 years and physicians' workplace histories for more than 20. The dynamic network arising from physician mobility between hospitals over time allows us to separate unobserved physician and hospital heterogeneity from the effect of the network. We build on standard peer-effects models by adding cumulative peer behaviour and allow for particularly influential physicians ('key players'), whose identities we estimate. We find positive effects of peer innovation take-up, number of peers, and proximity in the network to both pioneers of the innovation and key players. Counterfactual estimates suggest that early intervention targeting young, connected physicians with early take-up can significantly increase aggregate take-up."
    Keywords: Innovation; medical practice; networks; peer-effects
    Date: 2020–12
  32. By: Nicolás Ajzenman (Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV); Eleonora Bertoni (Inter-American Development Bank); Gregory Elacqua (Inter-American Development Bank); Luana Marotta (Inter-American Development Bank); Carolina Méndez Vargas (Inter-American Development Bank)
    Abstract: Inequality in access to high-quality teachers is an important driver of student socioeconomic achievement gaps. We experimentally evaluate a novel nation-wide low-cost government program aimed at reducing teacher sorting. Specifically, we tested two behavioral strategies designed to motivate teachers to apply to job vacancies in disadvantaged schools. These strategies consisted of an "Altruistic Identity" treatment arm, which primed teachers’ altruistic identity by making it more salient, and an “Extrinsic Incentives” arm, which simplified the information and increased the salience of an existing government monetary- incentive scheme rewarding teachers who work in underprivileged institutions. We show that both strategies are successful in triggering teacher candidates to apply to such vacancies, as well as make them more likely to be assigned to a final in-person evaluation in a disadvantaged school. The effect among high-performing teachers is larger, especially in the "Altruistic" arm. Our results imply that low-cost behavioral strategies can enhance the supply and quality of professionals willing to teach in high-need areas.
    Keywords: identity monetary incentives priming altruism prosocial behavior teacher sorting
    JEL: I24 D91 I25
    Date: 2021–03
  33. By: Devictor, Xavier; Do, Quy-Toan; Levchenko, Andrei A.
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the spatial distribution of refugees over 1987-2017 and establishes several stylized facts about refugees today compared with past decades. Refugees still predominantly reside in developing countries neighboring their country of origin. However, compared to past decades, refugees today (i) travel longer distances, (ii) are less likely to seek protection in a neighboring country, (iii) are less geographically concentrated, and (iv) are more likely to reside in a high-income OECD country. The findings bring new evidence to the debate on refugee responsibility-sharing.
    Keywords: forced displacement; Refugees; responsibility-sharing; UNHCR
    JEL: F22 F55 J15
    Date: 2021–01
  34. By: Agostinelli, Francesco; Doepke, Matthias; Sorrenti, Giuseppe; Zilibotti, Fabrizio
    Abstract: What are the effects of school closures during the Covid-19 pandemic on children's education? Online education is an imperfect substitute for in-person learning, particularly for children from low-income families. Peer effects also change: schools allow children from different socio-economic backgrounds to mix together, and this effect is lost when schools are closed. Another factor is the response of parents, some of whom compensate for the changed environment through their own efforts, while others are unable to do so. We examine the interaction of these factors with the aid of a structural model of skill formation. We find that school closures have a large and persistent effect on educational outcomes that is highly unequal. High school students from poor neighborhoods suffer a learning loss of 0.4 standard deviations, whereas children from rich neighborhoods remain unscathed. The channels operating through schools, peers, and parents all contribute to growing educational inequality during the pandemic.
    Keywords: COVID-19; neighborhood effects; Pandemics; Parenting; parenting style; peer effects; skill acquisition
    JEL: I24 J13 J24 R20
    Date: 2020–12
  35. By: Frick, Karen Trappenburg PhD; Kumar, Tanu PhD; Mendonça Abreu, Giselle Kristina; Post, Alison PhD
    Abstract: In recent years, “smart city” technologies have emerged that allow cities, counties, and other agencies to manage their infrastructure assets more effectively, make their services more accessible to the public, and allow citizens to interface with new web- and mobile-based operators of alternative service providers. This project reviews the academic literature and other sources on potential strengths, weaknesses, and risks associated with smart city technologies. No dataset was found that measures the adoption of such technologies by government agencies. To address this gap, a methodology was developed to guide data collection on the adoption of smart city technologies by urban transportation agencies and other service providers in California. The strategy used involved webscraping; interviews with experts, public agency, and senior level staff; and consultations with technology vendors. The approach was tested by assembling data on the adoption of smart city technologies in California by municipalities and other local public agencies.
    Keywords: Engineering, Smart cities, intelligent transportation systems, benchmarks, data collection, local government agencies, standards, California
    Date: 2021–04–01
  36. By: Buggle, Johannes; Mayer, Thierry; Sakalli, Seyhun; Thoenig, Mathias
    Abstract: We estimate the push and pull factors involved in the outmigration of Jews facing persecution in Nazi Germany from 1933 to 1941. Our empirical investigation makes use of a unique individual-level dataset that records the migration history of almost the entire Jewish community living in Germany over the period. Our analysis highlights new channels, specific to violent contexts, through which social networks affect the decision to flee. We first estimate a structural model of migration where individuals base their own migration decision on the observation of persecution and migration among their peers. Identification rests on exogenous variations in local push and pull factors across peers who live in different cities of residence. Then we perform various experiments of counterfactual history in order to quantify how migration restrictions in destination countries affected the fate of Jews. For example, removing work restrictions for refugees in the recipient countries after the Nuremberg Laws (in 1935) would have led to a 28% increase in Jewish migration out of Germany.
    Keywords: antisemitism; Counterfactual History; migration policy; Nazi Germany; Refugees
    JEL: D74 F22 F50 N40
    Date: 2020–12
  37. By: Bagues, Manuel; Roth, Christopher
    Abstract: We study the long-run effects of contact with individuals from other regions on beliefs, preferences and national identity. We combine a natural experiment, the random assignment of male conscripts to different locations throughout Spain, with tailored survey data. Being randomly assigned to complete military service outside of one's region of residence fosters contact with conscripts from other regions, and increases sympathy towards people from the region of service, measured several decades later. We also observe an increase in identification with Spain for individuals originating from regions with peripheral nationalism. Our evidence suggests that intergroup exposure in early adulthood can have long-lasting effects on individual preferences and national identity.
    Keywords: beliefs; identity; Intergroup Exposure; Interregional Contact; preference formation
    JEL: D91 R23 Z1
    Date: 2020–12
  38. By: Shuaijun Xue; Robert Hassink
    Abstract: Recently the knowledge base (KB) concept has been extended with combinational knowledge bases (CKB) in order to overcome the dichotomy between analytical, synthetic and symbolic KB. So far, however, empirical studies on these CKB have insufficiently focused on multi-scalar mechanisms, which is a gap we would like to fill with the help of this paper. Therefore, it aims at analyzing CKB from a proximity, agency and multi-scalar perspective. Through interviews with high-end medical device companies from Shanghai, findings show that, first, in this local industry a combination of analytical and synthetic knowledge prevail. Secondly, knowledge interactions differ at different spatial scales, which is strongly related to the characteristics of the local KB and the position of local knowledge in the global industrial knowledge value chain. Thirdly, in this industry cognitive proximity is the key factor facilitating combinatorial knowledge interactions at all spatial scales. Institutional and geographical proximity are obviously more important at the local scale. Fourthly, concerning the effect of agencies on proximities, place leadership and institutional entrepreneurship work respectively at the local and national level, while the role of innovative entrepreneurship is observed at all levels.
    Keywords: Combinational knowledge bases, proximity, agency, multi-scalar perspective
    Date: 2021
  39. By: Chambers, David; Spaenjers, Christophe; Steiner, Eva
    Abstract: Real estate-housing in particular-is a less profitable investment in the long run than previously thought. We hand-collect property-level financial data for the institutional real estate portfolios of four large Oxbridge colleges over the period 1901â??1983. Gross income yields initially fluctuate around 5%, but then trend downward (upward) for agricultural and residential (commercial) real estate. Long-term real income growth rates are close to zero for all property types. Our findings imply annualized real total returns, net of costs, ranging from approximately 2.3% for residential to 4.5% for agricultural real estate.
    Keywords: income growth; income yields; long-run returns; property prices; real estate
    JEL: G11 G23 N20 R30
    Date: 2021–01
  40. By: Ejermo, Olof; Hussinger, Katrin; Kalash, Basheer; Schubert, Torben
    Abstract: We analyze the effect of the Öresund Bridge, a combined railway and motorway bridge between Swedish Malmö and the Danish capital Copenhagen, on inventive activity in the region of Malmö. Applying difference-in-difference estimation on individual-level data, our findings suggest that the Öresund Bridge led to a significant increase in the number of patents per individual in the Malmö region as compared to the two other major regions in Sweden, Gothenburg and Stockholm. We show that a key mechanism is the attraction of highly qualified workers to the Malmö region following the construction of the bridge.
    Keywords: transportation infrastructure,innovation,Öresund Bridge,cross-border regions,patents,inventors,agglomeration effects
    JEL: O31 O33 R11 L91
    Date: 2021
  41. By: Benjamin Schoefer; Oren Ziv
    Abstract: Why do cities differ so much in productivity? Using a split-sample IV strategy, we document that up to three quarters of the large measured dispersion in productivity across US cities is spurious and reflects the "luck of the draw" of idiosyncratically heterogeneous plants. Due to this granularity bias, economies with randomly reallocated plants exhibit nearly as high a variance as the empirical economy. For new plants, four fifths of the raw dispersion reflects granularity bias, and their productivity is only imperfectly correlated with that of older plants, which dominate measured productivity levels. These US-based patterns broadly extend to European countries.
    JEL: D22 D24 E23 R0 R12
    Date: 2021–05
  42. By: Ducruet, Cesar; Juhász, Réka; Nagy, Dávid Krisztián; Steinwender, Claudia
    Abstract: This paper examines the effects of port development on the economy. By using scarce local land intensively, ports put pressure on local land prices and crowd out other forms of economic activity. We use the introduction of containerized shipping - a technology that substantially increased land requirements at the port - to estimate the effects of port development. We find an important role for the crowding-out effect both at the local and at the aggregate level. First, we show that the causal effect of the shipping boom caused by containerization on local population is zero - port development increases city population by making a location more attractive for firms and consumers, but this well-known market access effect is fully offset by the crowding-out mechanism. Second, to measure the aggregate implications, we add endogenous port development to a standard quantitative model of cross-city trade. Through the lens of this model, we estimate that containerization increased aggregate world welfare by 3.95%. However, relative to the positive welfare effects of a trade-cost reduction in standard models, our model implies a sizeable welfare cost associated with the increased land-usage of ports, partly offset by welfare gains from endogenous specialization based on comparative advantage across port- and non-port activities. In terms of the distributional effects, we find that initially poorer countries gained more from containerization as they had a comparative advantage in port development.
    Keywords: Containerization; Port Development; Quantitative Economic Geography
    JEL: F6 O33 R40
    Date: 2020–11
  43. By: Vineet Gupta; Jackelyn Hwang; Bina Shrimali
    Abstract: Affordable housing is critical to ensuring healthy and resilient communities and broad access to economic opportunity. In this report, we examine neighborhood change and residential instability in the City of Oakland over the past two decades. We employ multiple data sources, including individual-level data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax data. We analyze historical and contemporary data to understand patterns of residential instability, and we identify which residents and areas are most likely to experience heightened challenges in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results show that lower-SES residents experience residential instability in different ways in different parts of Oakland, suggesting the need for more geographically targeted strategies that focus on stabilizing lower-SES residents and address the multiple ways in which lower-SES residents navigate limited affordable housing.
    Keywords: housing; neighborhood change; residential instability; financial instability; diversity; Great Recession
    Date: 2021–05–11
  44. By: Nicola Camatti (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari); Luca Salmasi (Catholic University, Department of Economics and Finance, Roma, Italy); Jan van der Borg (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari)
    Abstract: This paper describes regional touristic supply under the framework of territorial capital to understand which territorial assets are the most important for stimulating economic growth. We used spatial regression models to consider spatial dependencies among regions, and Bayesian Model Averaging to specify our models using only the most relevant territorial assets. We have focused on the Mediterranean coast. The results show that many of the variables considered in our models play an important role in predicting GDP, recognizing them as strategic in economic growth, as well as a variety of strictly tourist assets, such as cultural heritage and landscape.
    Keywords: tourism growth, territorial capital, tourism competitiveness, spillover effects, spatial regression models, Mediterranean area
    JEL: C11 L83 Z32 R11 R58
  45. By: Lars E.O. Svensson
    Abstract: The “debt-overhang hypothesis” – that households cut back more on their spending in a crisis when they have higher levels of outstanding mortgage debt (Dynan, 2012) – seems to be taken for granted by macroprudential authorities in several countries in their policy decisions, as well as by the international organizations that evaluate and comment on countries’ macroprudential policy. New results for Australian microdata are presented that reject the debt-overhang hypothesis. The results instead support the “spending-normalization hypothesis” of Andersen, Duus, and Jensen (2016), what can also be called the “debt-financed overspending” hypothesis – that the correlation between high pre-crisis household indebtedness and subsequent spending falls during the crisis reflects high debt-financed spending pre-crisis and a return to normal spending during the crisis. As discussed in Svensson (2019, 2020), this is consistent with the above correlation reflecting debt-financed overspending through what Muellbauer (2012) calls the “housing-collateral household demand” channel and Mian and Sufi (2018) the “debt-driven household demand” channel.
    JEL: E21 G01 G18 G21 R21
    Date: 2021–05
  46. By: Hande Inanc; Megan McIntyre
    Abstract: Quarterly youth unemployment data from six large metro areas—Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Los Angeles, New York, and Washington, DC—show that youth unemployment increased rapidly in the second quarter of 2020.
    Keywords: Youth Unemployment, unemployment rates
  47. By: Becker, Sascha O.; Ferrara, Andreas; Melander, Eric; Pascali, Luigi
    Abstract: We provide causal evidence for the role of conflicts in the development of representative institutions in Europe. Using novel data on the universe of German cities between 1250 and 1710, we show that involvement in wars resulted in city councils that were larger, had a higher probability of being elected by citizens, and a higher probability of guild representation. Additionally, conflicts led to a substantial long-term increase in local fiscal and spending capacity. This effect persisted well after the end of the conflicts: temporary war taxes were transformed into permanent sophisticated systems of taxation, while public spending was re-directed from military to civilian spending. We use the gender of the firstborn child of the best-connected local noble to instrument for conflict: a firstborn daughter increases the likelihood of conflict relative to a firstborn son.
    Keywords: fiscal capacity; institutions; medieval constitutionalism; wars
    JEL: N13 P48 R11
    Date: 2020–12
  48. By: Ferentinos, Konstantinos (Lancaster University); Gibberd, Alex (Lancaster University); Guin, Benjamin (Bank of England)
    Abstract: Public policies aimed at mitigating climate change can come with the transition risk of sudden adjustments of asset prices. We study the consequences of a policy intervention addressing greenhouse gas emissions in the housing market. Leveraging a unique data set of the population of all house transactions in England and Wales, we document novel evidence of transition risk. Prices of carbon-intensive properties affected by this policy decreased by about £5,000 to £9,000 relative to unaffected ones. We interpret this result as evidence in favour of semi-strong market efficiency in the housing market. We infer moderate implications for financial stability and for the wealth distribution among homeowners.
    Keywords: Climate policy; transition risk; house prices; financial stability; wealth inequality
    JEL: C54 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2021–04–30
  49. By: Nessa Winston (University College Dublin)
    Abstract: The concepts of sustainable development (SD) and sustainable communities (SC) are firmly on policy agendas. Conceptual clarity is essential for the selection of high quality indicators to monitor progress in these important areas. However, there are mixed views about the nature of social sustainability (SS) and definitions of SC are limited. This paper addresses these deficiencies by presenting a new conceptualization of SS central to which is addressing basic human needs so that the criterion of sufficiency is met. Ensuring 'sufficiency' is crucial to ensure the provision of welfare within planetary boundaries, thereby firmly integrating the social and environmental in conceptualising and operationalising SS. The paper also presents a new definition and conceptualisation of SC in which social and environmental integration is critical. The paper proceeds with an illustration of how regeneration programmes targeting housing deprivation could simultaneously address many social and environmental problems and progress the implementation of the 'UNSDGs.
    Keywords: sustainable development, social sustainability, sustainable communities, housing regeneration, UNSDGs
    Date: 2021–03–11
  50. By: Anderson, Eric; Rebelo, Sérgio; Wong, Arlene
    Abstract: In this paper, we provide direct evidence on the behavior of markups in the retail sector across space and time. Markups are measured using gross margins. We consider three levels of aggregation: the retail sector as a whole, the firm level, and the product level. We find that: (1) markups are relatively stable over time and mildly procyclical; (2) there is large regional dispersion in markups; (3) there is positive cross-sectional correlation between local income and local markups; and (4) differences in markups across regions are explained by differences in assortment within each goods category, not by deviations from uniform pricing. We propose an endogenous assortment model consistent with these facts.
    Keywords: business cycles; Gross margins; Marginal costs; prices
    JEL: E30
    Date: 2020–12
  51. By: Nicolás Ajzenman (Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV); Ruben Durante (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
    Abstract: Can seemingly unimportant factors influence voting decisions by making certain issues salient? We study this question in the context of Argentina 2015 presidential elections by examining how the quality of the infrastructure of the school where citizens were assigned to vote influenced their voting choice. Exploiting the quasi-random assignment of voters to ballot stations located in different public schools in the city of Buenos Aires, we find that individuals assigned to schools with poorer infrastructure were significantly less likely to vote for Mauricio Macri, the incumbent mayor then running for president. The effect is larger in low-income areas - where fewer people can afford private substitutes to public education - and in places where more households have children in school age. The effect is unlikely to be driven by information scarcity, since information on public school infrastructure was readily available to parents before elections. Rather, direct exposure to poor school infrastructure at the time of voting is likely to make public education - and the poor performance of the incumbent - more salient.
    Keywords: Elections Salience Electoral Punishment Public Infrastructure Education
    JEL: D72 D83 I25 D90
    Date: 2021–04
  52. By: Dario Bertocchi (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari); Nicola Camatti (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari); Luca Salmasi (Catholic University, Department of Economics and Finance, Roma, Italy); Jan van der Borg (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari)
    Abstract: Sustainability in the tourism sector has become a principal goal for destination management and for the strengthening of the competitiveness and attractiveness of destinations (Bell & Morse, 2012). There is, however, no absolute scale of spatial analysis for sustainability. In this paper, we propose regions as a unit of analysis. Our empirical approach aims to assign regional variability to an already existing and commonly used national indicator, making it possible to achieve a good compromise between data availability and the need to have access to universally comparable data while embracing the value of scaling down the monitoring process to consider detail at a more local level. The advantage of such an approach is that it combines the rich set of information from existing indicators with the wide availability of quantitative regional indicators freely obtainable from official statistical sources, such as Eurostat or ESPON (European Spatial Planning European Network). Our paper develops an application using the Tourism & Travel Competitiveness Index framework as a starting point, creating regional sustainability indicators for the 281 NUTS-2 regions (territorial units for statistics) in Europe. The first contribution of this approach is the regionalisation of a national indicator that allows monitoring of not only the individual level of sustainability of a destination, but also its standing among every other European region. The second is the creation of a practical tool that is able to continuously monitor and benchmark the sustainable development of EU regions, thereby supporting stakeholders in their decision-making processes
    Keywords: Tourism Sustainability Indicators, Regional Sustainability, Environmental Indicators, Regionalisation, NUTS-2
    JEL: L83 Q01 Q56 R11 R58 Z32
    Date: 2021
  53. By: Anna Folke Larsen (The Rockwool Foundation Interventions Unit); Marianne Simonsen (Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University)
    Abstract: This note presents one-year follow-up results from a large-scale cluster randomized trial in Danish public schools (Larsen and Simonsen, 2020). We combine the trial with survey and register-based data to investigate effects of a universal social emotional learning intervention, PERSPEKT 2.0, which was delivered to 4th and 5th graders in Danish elementary schools. Our findings corroborate the short-term results: PERSPEKT 2.0 did not affect school social well-being or academic performance. The null-findings hold for the population as a whole as well as across pre-defined subgroups.
    Keywords: Social emotional learning, randomized trial, school social well-being, problem behavior
    JEL: I21 I31
    Date: 2021–05–07
  54. By: Bailey, Michael; Johnston, Drew; Koenen, Martin; Kuchler, Theresa; Russel, Dominic; Ströbel, Johannes
    Abstract: We explore how social network exposure to COVID-19 cases shapes individuals' social distancing behavior during the early months of the ongoing pandemic. We work with de-identified data from Facebook to show that U.S. users whose friends live in areas with worse coronavirus outbreaks reduce their mobility more than otherwise similar users whose friends live in areas with smaller outbreaks. The effects are quantitatively large: a one standard deviation increase in friend-exposure to COVID-19 cases early in the pandemic results in a 1.2 percentage point increase in the probability that an individual stays home on a given day. As the pandemic progresses, changes in friend-exposure drive changes in social distancing behavior. Given the evolving nature and geography of the pandemic --- and hence friend-exposure --- these results rule out many alternative explanations for the observed relationships. We also analyze data on public posts and membership in groups advocating to "reopen" the economy to show that our findings can be explained by friend-exposure raising awareness about the risks of the disease and inducing individuals to participate in mitigating public health behavior.
    Keywords: COVID-19; peer effects; Social distancing; Social Networks
    JEL: I0
    Date: 2020–12
  55. By: Boris, Hirsch; Jahn, Elke J.; Manning, Alan; Oberfichtner, Michael
    Abstract: Using administrative data for West Germany, this paper investigates whether part of the urban wage premium stems from greater competition in denser labor markets. We show that employers possess less wage-setting power in denser markets. We further document that an important part of the observed urban wage premia can be explained by greater competition in denser labor markets.
    JEL: R23 J42 J31
    Date: 2020–11–10
  56. By: Javier Torres (Universidad del Pacífico); Francisco Galarza (Universidad del Pacífico)
    Abstract: We study the negative wage premium Venezuelan immigrants face in the Peruvian labor market in 2018, by merging two national household surveys. Consistent with an imperfect transfer of skills, we find that Venezuelans face, on average, a 40% discount on their hourly wage compared to Peruvians. Interestingly, there is heterogeneity in wage premiums across education levels and broad groups of fields of study. The higher the education level, the larger the negative wage premium. Venezuelans with low levels of education could earn a higher hourly wage than Peruvian. Further, Immigrants with careers related to Economics, Administration and Commerce face the least wage discount. Finally, we find that foreign work experience has negligible value in the host country.
    Keywords: Immigration, Economic Assimilation, Wage Gap.
    JEL: J15 J24 J31 J70
    Date: 2021–04
  57. By: Berg, Tobias; Reisinger, Markus; Streitz, Daniel
    Abstract: Despite their importance, the discussion of spillover effects in empirical research often misses the rigor dedicated to endogeneity concerns. We analyze a broad set of workhorse models of firm interactions and show that spillovers naturally arise in many corporate finance settings. This has important implications for the estimation of treatment effects: i) even with random treatment, spillovers lead to a complicated bias, ii) fixed effects can exacerbate the spillover-induced bias. We propose simple diagnostic tools for empirical researchers and illustrate our guidance in an application.
    Keywords: credit supply; Direct vs. Indirect Effects; Spillovers
    JEL: C13 C21 G21 G32 M41 M42 R11 R23
    Date: 2020–12

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