nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2021‒04‒26
fifty-four papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Flattening the Curve: Pandemic-Induced Revaluation of Urban Real Estate By Arpit Gupta; Vrinda Mittal; Jonas Peeters; Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
  2. Charter Schools and the Segregation of Students by Income By Dalane, Kari; Marcotte, Dave E.
  3. Revisiting metropolitan house price-income relationships By Elias Oikarinen; Steven C. Bourassa; Martin Hoesli; Janne Engblom
  4. Can the Mafia’s Tentacles Be Severed? The Economic Effects of Removing Corrupt City Councils By Alessandra Fenizia; Raffaele Saggio
  5. Counterfactual Dissimilarity: Can Changes in Demographics and Income Explain Increased Racial Integration in U.S. Cities? By Paul Carrillo; Jonathan Rothbaum
  6. Better Alone? Evidence on the Costs of Intermunicipal Cooperation By Clémence Tricaud
  7. How Important are Land Values in House Price Growth? Evidence from Canadian Cities By Kenneth G. Stewart
  8. Refugee influx and economic activity: evidence from Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh By José Joaquín Endara
  9. Innovation in Malmö after the Öresund Bridge By Ejermo, Olof; Hussinger, Katrin; Kalash, Basheer; Schubert, Torben
  10. Identifying urban features for vulnerable road user safety in Europe By Klanjčić, Marina; Gauvin, Laetitia; Tizzoni, Michele; Szell, Michael
  11. Modeling Inter-Regional Patient Mobility: Does Distance Go Far Enough? By Michael Irlacher; Dieter Pennerstorfer; Anna-Theresa Renner; Florian Unger
  12. Rental Affordability and COVID-19 in Rural New England By Nicholas Chiumenti
  13. Income inequality, tourism and resources endowment in Uruguay: a spatial and distributional approach By Natalia Porto; Natalia Espinola; Laura Carella
  14. When Distance Drives Destination, Towns can Stimulate Development By De Weerdt, Joachim; Christiansen, Lue; Kanbur, Ravi
  15. Migration Costs, Sorting, and the Agricultural Productivity Gap By Qingen Gai; Naijia Guo; Bingjing Li; Qinghua Shi; Xiaodong Zhu
  16. The International Transmission of Local Economic Shocks Through Migrant Networks By María Esther Caballero; Brian Cadena; Brian K. Kovak
  17. Do Parents Expect Too Much or Is It All about Grades? The Discrepancy between Parents' Aspirations and Child's Academic Performance, and Parental Satisfaction with the School By Milovanska-Farrington, Stefani
  18. Exploratory Data Analysis of Electric Tricycle as Sustainable Public Transport Mode in General Santos City Using Logistic Regression By Geoffrey L. Cueto; Francis Aldrine A. Uy; Keith Anshilo Diaz
  19. Cities and the Sea Level By Lin, Yatang; McDermott, Thomas K. J.; Michaels, Guy
  20. Immigration and Regional Specialization in AI By Gordon H. Hanson
  21. Prediction in Educational Research: An Application to the Study of Teacher Bias By Verhagen, Mark D.
  22. Innovation and human capital policy By John Van Reenen
  23. The spatial dissemination of COVID-19 and associated socio-economic consequences By Yafei Zhang; Lin Wang; Jonathan J. H. Zhu; Xiaofan Wang
  24. Immigration and electoral outcomes: Evidence from the 2015 refugee inflow to Germany By Bredtmann, Julia
  25. The Effect of a Health and Economic Shock on the Gender, Ethnic and Racial Gap in Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from COVID-19 By Milovanska-Farrington, Stefani
  26. A review and evaluation of secondary school accountability in England: Statistical strengths, weaknesses, and challenges for 'Progress 8' raised by COVID-19 By Lucy Prior; John Jerrim; Dave Thomson; George Leckie
  27. Crime and Gender Segregation: Evidence from the Bogota "Pico y Genero" Lockdown By Brian G. Knight; Maria Mercedes Ponce de Leon; Ana Tribin
  28. Pathways to regional housing recovery from COVID-19 By Verdouw, Julia; Yanotti, Maria B.; De Vries, Jacqueline; Flanagan, Kathleen; Haman, Omar Ben
  29. Land reform and rural conflict: evidence from 1930s Spain By Maravall Buckwalter, Laura; Domènech Feliu, Jordi; Basco Mascaro, Sergi
  30. Effects of Measures of Teachers' Quality on Tertiary Education Attendance: Evaluation Tests versus Value Added By Díaz, Juan; Sánchez, Rafael; Villarroel, Gabriel; Villena, Mauricio G.
  31. Understanding changes in the geography of opportunity over time: the case of Santiago, Chile By Brain, Isabel; Prieto, Joaquin
  32. Why Subsidize Independent Schools? Estimating the Effect of a Unique Canadian Schooling Model on Educational Attainment By Pierre Lefebvre; Philip Merrigan
  33. Identification of Peer Effects with Miss-specified Peer Groups: Missing Data and Group Uncertainty By Christiern Rose
  34. The Bright and Dark Side of Financial Support from Local and Central Banks after a Natural Disaster: Evidence from the Great Kanto Earthquake, 1923 Japan By Tetsuji Okazaki; Toshihiro Okubo; Eric Strobl
  35. The Dynamics of the House Price-to-Income Ratio: Theory and Evidence By Charles Ka Yui Leung; Edward Chi Ho Tang
  36. Credit constraints and the composition of housing sales. Farewell to first-time buyers? By Carozzi, Felipe
  37. Homophily, Peer Effects, and Dishonesty By Liza Charroin; Bernard Fortin; Marie Villeval
  38. Migration and terrorism By Krieger, Tim
  39. The Changing Spatial Inequality of Opportunity in West Africa By Luke Milsom
  40. Do temperature shocks affect non-agriculture wages in Brazil? Evidence from individual-level panel data By Jaqueline Oliveira; Bruno Palialol, Paula Pereda
  41. Labour mobility in transnational Europe: between depletion, mitigation and citizenship entitlements harm By Plomien, Ania; Schwartz, G
  42. The Covid-19 containment effects of public health measures - A spatial difference-in-differences approach By Kosfeld, Reinhold; Mitze, Timo; Rode, Johannes; Wälde, Klaus
  43. Inventing ‘infrastructure’: tracing the etymological blueprint of an omnipresent sociotechnical metaphor By Tribillon, Justinien
  44. The global network of embodied R&D flows By Fabrizio Fusillo; Sandro Montresor; Giuseppe Vittucci Marzetti
  45. Efficiency of Courts in China – Does Location Matter? By Dong, Xiaoge
  46. Financial Conditions, Local Competition, and Local Market Leaders: The Case of Real Estate Developers By Fan, Ying; Leung, Charles Ka Yui; Yang, Zan
  47. Social origins and social mobility: the educational and labour market outcomes of the children of immigrants in the UK By Carolina Zuccotti; Lucinda Platt
  48. Local Fiscal Multipliers and Fiscal Spillovers in the USA By Auerbach, A; Gorodnichenko, Y; Murphy, D
  49. The Incidence of Land Use Regulations By Camilo Andrés Acosta Mejía
  50. Avoiding the Crowd: Traveller Behaviour in Public Transport in the Age of COVID-19 By Sanmay Shelat; Oded Cats; Sander van Cranenburgh
  51. Pandemic-induced de-urbanisation in Indonesia By Peter Warr; Arief Anshory Yusuf
  52. Gender, Crime and Punishment: Evidence from Women Police Stations in India By Sofia Amaral; Sonia Bhalotra; Nishith Prakash
  53. How the Earnings Growth of U.S. Immigrants Was Underestimated By Duleep, Harriet; Liu, Xingfei; Regets, Mark
  54. Gibrat's Law for Cities: Evidence From World War I Casualties By Antonio Ciccone

  1. By: Arpit Gupta; Vrinda Mittal; Jonas Peeters; Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
    Abstract: We show that the COVID-19 pandemic brought house price and rent declines in city centers, and price and rent increases away from the center, thereby flattening the bid-rent curve in most U.S. metropolitan areas. Across MSAs, the flattening of the bid-rent curve is larger when working from home is more prevalent, housing markets are more regulated, and supply is less elastic. Housing markets predict that urban rent growth will exceed suburban rent growth for the foreseeable future.
    JEL: G12 R12 R23 R51
    Date: 2021–04
  2. By: Dalane, Kari (American University); Marcotte, Dave E. (American University)
    Abstract: The segregation of students by socioeconomic status has been on the rise in American public education between schools during the past several decades. Recent work has demonstrated that segregation is also increasing within schools at the classroom level. In this paper, we contribute to our understanding of the determinants of this increase in socioeconomic segregation within schools. We assess whether growth in the presence and number of nearby charter schools have affected the segregation of socioeconomically disadvantaged students by classroom in traditional public schools (TPS). Using data from North Carolina, we estimate a series of models exploit variation in the number and location of charter schools over time between 2007 and 2014 to estimate the impact of charter school penetration and proximity on levels of within school segregation in TPS classrooms serving grades 3-8. We find that socioeconomic segregation in math and English language arts increase in grades 3-6 when additional charter schools open within large urban districts. We find the largest impacts on schools that are closest to the new charter schools. We estimate that the impact of charter schools can account for almost half of the overall growth in socioeconomic segregation we see over the course of the panel within grades 3-6 in large urban districts.
    Keywords: education, charter schools, inequity
    JEL: I24 I28 I21
    Date: 2021–04
  3. By: Elias Oikarinen (University of Turku, Department of Economics); Steven C. Bourassa (Florida Atlantic University); Martin Hoesli (University of Geneva - Geneva School of Economics and Management (GSEM); Swiss Finance Institute; University of Aberdeen - Business School); Janne Engblom (University of Turku - Turku School of Economics)
    Abstract: We explore long-term patterns of the house price-income relationship across the 70 largest U.S. metropolitan areas. In line with a standard spatial equilibrium model, our empirical findings indicate that house price-income ratios are typically not stable even over the long run. In contrast, panel regression models that relate house prices to aggregate personal income and allow for regional heterogeneity yield stationary long-term relationships in most areas. The relationship between house prices and income varies significantly across locations, underscoring the importance of using estimation techniques that allow for spatial heterogeneity. The substantial differences across metropolitan areas are closely related to the price elasticity of housing supply.
    Keywords: House prices; Personal income; Spatial equilibrium; Regional heterogeneity; Supply elasticity
    JEL: C33 R10 R31
    Date: 2021–04
  4. By: Alessandra Fenizia (George Washington University); Raffaele Saggio (University of British Columbia)
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the long-run economic impact of the fight against organized crime. It uses rich administrative data from Italy and studies one of the most aggressive policies aimed at combating criminal organizations: the city council dismissal. Under this policy, local administrations believed to be infiltrated by the Mafia are dismissed by the central government and the municipality is then administrated by a team of public servants appointed by the central government for approximately two years. Using a matched difference-in-differences design, we find that this policy fosters economic growth. Specifically, the city council dismissal increases formal employment by 16.9% nine years after the dismissal and this effect appears to be partially driven by the entry of new workers in the formal sector. Treated municipalities also display higher economic dynamism and a surge in industrial real estate prices in the aftermath of the intervention. These effects appear to be mediated by an increase in the quality of local politicians elected after the city council dismissal. We show that these newly elected politicians raise local tax compliance and were able to increase expenditures on roads and infrastructures. Overall, our results imply that there are significant long-run economic benefits associated with targeted law enforcement actions against criminal organizations.
    JEL: D73 G38 K42
    Date: 2020
  5. By: Paul Carrillo (George Washington University); Jonathan Rothbaum (U.S. Census Bureau)
    Abstract: Urban areas in the U.S. have experienced important changes in racial/ethnic distributions over the last two decades. In the average urban area today black-white racial integration has increased by 10.6 percent between 1990 and 2010. Changes in racial and ethnic distributions and gentrification are often associated with changes in residents’ demographic characteristics, such as income, education and age. This paper applies a non-parametric spatial decomposition technique using complete (restricted-use) microdata files from the 1990 Decennial Long Form Census and 2008-2012 American Community Surveys to assess what portion of the changes in racial distributions can be attributed to changes in individual characteristics. We find that that, on average, a little over a third of the observed increase in integration can be accounted for by changes in observed individual characteristics.
    Keywords: Counterfactual Distribution; Decomposition; Spatial Econometrics
    JEL: C14 R23 R30
    Date: 2021–10
  6. By: Clémence Tricaud
    Abstract: While central governments encourage intermunicipal cooperation to achieve economies of scale, municipalities are often reluctant to integrate. This paper provides new evidence on the factors explaining their resistance by exploiting a 2010 reform in France that forced non-integrated municipalities to enter an intermunicipal community. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, I assess the causal impact of integration on resisting municipalities. Comparing their experience to that of municipalities that had chosen to integrate before the law, I can identify the local consequences explaining why resisting municipalities opposed integration in the first place. I first find that municipalities forced to integrate experienced a 12.5-percent increase in the number of building permits delivered per year. This impact is driven by high-demand urban municipalities, consistent with NIMBYism explaining their resistance to integration. Second, I find that rural municipalities ended up with fewer local public services. I do not find the same effects for municipalities that voluntarily integrated, while I show that both types of municipality enjoyed similar benefits of integration, in terms of better access to public transport and higher fiscal revenues. These findings support the fact that municipalities resisted to avoid the local costs of integration.
    Keywords: local governments, intermunicipal cooperation, difference-in-differences, housing regulations, local public services
    JEL: H70 R52 R53
    Date: 2021
  7. By: Kenneth G. Stewart (Department of Economics, University of Victoria)
    Abstract: A Cobb-Douglas growth accounting framework is used to study the contributions of structures and land to newly-constructed home prices across major Canadian cities. The data set is unusual in that land prices are directly observed rather than having to be imputed, and quality change is carefully controlled for in the measurement of structures. These data permit testing of constant returns to scale, which in conventional applications must be adopted as a maintained hypothesis, as well as the introduction of dynamic effects. Whereas standard analyses and land costs to be the dominant contributor to the growth in housing costs, I find that this varies greatly by city. Yet, despite this novel empirical result, the evidence supports other recent work that endorses the constant-returns Cobb Douglas methodological framework.
    Keywords: Land, Land value, Land prices, Residential construction costs
    Date: 2021–04–19
  8. By: José Joaquín Endara
    Abstract: Using nighttime lights data and the location of historically important markets for host populations in Southern Bangladesh, we assess the impact of the sudden refugee influx in August 2017 in the economic activity for the local community. Using a difference in difference estimation, we find that a sudden refugee influx produced an increase of 24% in economic activity in host markets within 5 kilometers of refugee camps. The results are robust to different specifications, and we include as controls the population around markets from the High-Resolution Settlement Layer by CIENSIN and Facebook and travel times through the local road networks. We argue that the refugee influx plus the humanitarian response are responsible for this effect. This paper contributes to the literature documenting the impacts of refugees on host communities.
    Keywords: Refugee impacts, Forced migration impacts, Nighttime lights, Difference in Difference, Rohingyas, Travel times, High Resolution Settlement Layer
    JEL: O15 O12 R23 D62
    Date: 2020–11
  9. By: Ejermo, Olof (Lund University); Hussinger, Katrin (University of Luxembourg); Kalash, Basheer (SciencesPo OFCE); Schubert, Torben (CIRCLE, Lund University)
    Abstract: We analyse the effect of the Öresund Bridge, a combined railway and motorway bridge between Swedish Malmö and the Danish capital Copenhagen, on inventive activity in the region of Malmö. Applying difference-in-difference estimation on individual level data, our findings suggest that the Öresund Bridge has led to a significant increase in the number of patents per individual with a background prone to patenting in the Malmö region as compared to the Gothenburg and Stockholm regions. Further, we show that the dominating mechanism is the attraction of highly qualified workers to the Malmö region following the construction of the bridge.
    Keywords: transport infrastructure; innovation; Öresund Bridge; cross-border regions; patents; inventors; agglomeration effects
    JEL: L91 O31 O33 R11
    Date: 2021–04–22
  10. By: Klanjčić, Marina; Gauvin, Laetitia; Tizzoni, Michele (ISI Foundation); Szell, Michael (IT University of Copenhagen)
    Abstract: One of the targets of the UN Sustainable Development Goals is to substantially reduce the number of global deaths and injuries from road traffic collisions. To this aim, European cities adopted various urban mobility policies, which has led to a heterogeneous number of injuries across Europe. Monitoring the discrepancies in injuries and understanding the most efficient policies are keys to achieve the objectives of Vision Zero, a multi-national road traffic safety project that aims at zero fatalities or serious injuries linked to road traffic. Here, we identify urban features that are determinants of vulnerable road user safety through the analysis of inter-mode collision data across European cities. We first build up a data set of urban road crashes and their participants from 24 cities in 5 European countries, using the widely recommended KSI indicator (killed or seriously injured individuals) as a safety performance metric. Modelling the casualty matrices including road infrastructure characteristics and modal share distribution of the different cities, we observe that cities with the highest rates of walking and cycling modal shares are the safest for the most vulnerable users. Instead, a higher presence of low-speed limited roads seems to only significantly reduce the number of injuries of car occupants. Our results suggest that policies aimed at increasing the modal share of walking and cycling are key to improve road safety for all road users.
    Date: 2021–04–14
  11. By: Michael Irlacher; Dieter Pennerstorfer; Anna-Theresa Renner; Florian Unger
    Abstract: This paper estimates a theory-guided gravity equation of regional patient flows. In our model, a patient’s choice to consult a physician in a particular region depends on a measure of spatial accessibility that accounts for the exact locations of both patients and physicians. Introducing this concept in a spatial economics model, we derive an augmented gravity-type equation and show that our measure of accessibility performs better in explaining patient flows than bilateral distance. We conduct a rich set of counterfactual simulations, illustrating that the effects of physicians’ market exits on patient mobility crucially depend on their exact locations.
    Keywords: gravity model, patient mobility, spatial accessibility, two-step floating catchment areas (2SFCA)
    JEL: R10 R12 R23 I11 I18
    Date: 2021
  12. By: Nicholas Chiumenti
    Abstract: Although a shortage of affordable rental housing is often framed as an urban-area issue, rural communities also suffer from this problem. On average, rural and urban renters spend similar shares of their income on rent and have comparable rates of housing-cost burden. Years of slow income growth and skyrocketing rents, particularly during the 2000–2010 period, have eroded slack in household budgets that may have gone toward other expenses or toward savings. The coronavirus pandemic likely has exacerbated affordability problems by putting many rural residents out of work. The share of jobs lost in rural New England communities has been large, even though these areas have seen far fewer cases of COVID-19 (relative to their population size and overall) compared with the region’s urban areas. This is in contrast with the experience in much of the rest of the country, where, as of January, rural areas nationally had seen far more COVID-19 cases but had lost a smaller share of jobs. Due to the economic conditions in the region’s rural areas, many renters could find it increasingly difficult to afford their housing costs. Even after the pandemic ends and the negative economic impact subsides, rural New England households likely will still face considerable affordability challenges.
    Keywords: New England; NEPPC; affordable housing; COVID-19; coronavirus; rural areas; housing-cost burden
    Date: 2021–04–21
  13. By: Natalia Porto; Natalia Espinola; Laura Carella
    Abstract: It has been widely recognized that tourism plays a crucial role both as an income generator and as a source of employment in many countries. While its impact at local, regional and national level of employment is undoubted, there is a line of research that has pointed out that jobs in tourism sector have less favorable working conditions than other sectors and they could have negative effects on income distribution. Another feature that could be also related to income distribution is the regional endowment of touristic amenities, which could affect tourism activities. Considering these facts, it is possible that the allocation and distribution of amenities in a country could generate regional disparities in income distribution due to tourism. The aim of this study is to explore regional inequalities in wages and its relationship with the development of tourism in Uruguay. We estimate a spatial error model using a balanced panel data set from 2006 to 2019 on 19 Uruguayan departments. We built four indices of touristic amenities and then interact them with tourism employment, as a proxy for tourism development. The evidence suggests that there are some regional disparities in income distribution in tourism sector. Some specifications of the models show a positive relationship between tourism employment and inequality in labor income, and that the departments with cultural-historical amenities tend to have a more equalitarian distribution of labor income.
    Keywords: amenity-led development, income distribution, regional development, spatial econometrics, tourism-related employment, tourism development
    JEL: R1 L8 J4
    Date: 2020–11
  14. By: De Weerdt, Joachim; Christiansen, Lue; Kanbur, Ravi
    Abstract: While city migrants see their welfare increase much more than those moving to towns, many more rural-urban migrants end up in towns. This phenomenon, documented in detail in Kagera, Tanzania, begs the question why migrants move to seemingly suboptimal destinations. Using an 18-year panel of individuals from this region and information on the possible destinations from the census, this study documents, through dyadic regressions and controlling for individual heterogeneity, how the deterrence of further distance to cities (compared to towns) largely trumps the attraction from their promise of greater wealth, making towns more appealing destinations. Education mitigates these effects (lesser deterrence from distance; greater attraction from wealth), while poverty reduces the attraction of wealth, consistent with the notion of urban sorting. With about two thirds of the rural population in low-income countries living within two hours from a town, these findings underscore the importance of vibrant towns for inclusive development.
    Keywords: International Development
    Date: 2021–03–01
  15. By: Qingen Gai; Naijia Guo; Bingjing Li; Qinghua Shi; Xiaodong Zhu
    Abstract: We use a unique panel dataset and a policy experiment as an instrument to estimate the impact of policy-induced migration cost reductions on rural-to-urban migration and the associated increase in labor earnings for migrant workers in China. Our estimation shows that there exist both large migration costs and a large underlying productivity difference between rural agricultural and urban non-agricultural sectors in China. More than half of the observed labor earnings gap between the two sectors can be attributed to the underlying productivity difference, and less than half of the gap can be attributed to sorting of workers. We also structurally estimate a general equilibrium Roy model and use it to quantify the effects of reducing migration costs on the observed sectoral productivity difference, migration, and aggregate productivity. If we implement a hukou policy reform by setting the hukou liberalization index in all regions of China to the level of the most liberal region, the observed agricultural productivity gap would decrease by more than 30%, the migrant share would increase by about 9%, and the aggregate productivity would increase by 1.1%. In contrast, in a partial equilibrium in which the underlying productivity difference does not change with migration cost, the hukou policy reform would reduce the observed agricultural productivity gap by only 9%, the migrant share would increase by more than 50%, and the aggregate productivity would increase by 6.8%.
    Keywords: Migration cost; sorting; agricultural productivity gap; panel data; general equilibrium Roy model; China
    JEL: E24 J24 J61 O11 O15
    Date: 2021–04–17
  16. By: María Esther Caballero; Brian Cadena; Brian K. Kovak
    Abstract: Using newly validated data on geographic migration networks, we study how labor demand shocks in the United States propagate across the border with Mexico. We show that the large exogenous decline in US employment brought about by the Great Recession affected demographic and economic outcomes in Mexican communities that were highly connected to the most affected markets in the US. In the Mexican locations with strong initial ties to the hardest hit US migrant destinations, return migration increased, emigration decreased, and remittance receipt declined. These changes significantly increased local employment and hours worked, but wages were unaffected. Investment in durable goods and children's education also slowed in these communities. These findings document the effects in Mexico when potential migrants lose access to a strong US labor market, providing insight regarding the potential impacts of stricter US migration restrictions.
    JEL: F22 J21 J23 J61 R23
    Date: 2021–04
  17. By: Milovanska-Farrington, Stefani (University of Tampa)
    Abstract: Schooling is related to health and future labor market outcomes. The school parents choose for their children often depends on feedback received from other parents. Therefore it is important to understand whether parental satisfaction with the school depends only on objective measures of the quality of the school. We examine the association between children's academic performance, parents' aspirations, the mismatch between the two, and parents' satisfaction with different aspects of children's schooling. The findings suggest that excellent academic performance of the child is associated with higher parental satisfaction, regardless of parents' aspirations. High expectations accompanied by low performance are negatively related to parental satisfaction with all aspects of children's schooling. The results have implications related to school rankings and the significance of parental school reviews.
    Keywords: academic performance, educational aspirations, parent satisfaction, schooling
    JEL: J01 J13 I21 I31 D10
    Date: 2021–04
  18. By: Geoffrey L. Cueto; Francis Aldrine A. Uy; Keith Anshilo Diaz
    Abstract: General Santos City, as the tuna capital of the Philippines, relies with the presence of tricycles in moving people and goods. Considered as a highly-urbanized city, General Santos City serves as vital link of the entire SOCKSARGEN region's economic activities. With the current thrust of the city in providing a sustainable transport service, several options were identified to adopt in the entire city, that includes cleaner and better transport mode. Electric tricycle is an after sought alternative that offers better choice in terms of identified factors of sustainable transport: reliability, safety, comfort, environment, affordability, and facility. A literature review was conducted to provide a comparison of cost and emission between a motorized tricycle and an e-tricycle. The study identified the existing tricycle industry of the city and reviewed the modal share with the city's travel pattern. The survey revealed a number of hazards were with the current motorized tricycle that needs to address for the welfare of the passengers and drivers. The study favors the shift to adopting E-tricycle. The model derived from binary logistics regression provided a 72.72% model accuracy. Based from the results and findings, electric tricycle can be an alternative mode of public transport in the city that highly support sustainable option that provides local populace to improve their quality of life through mobility and economic activity. Further recommendation to local policy makers in the transport sector of the city include the clustering of barangays for better traffic management and franchise regulation, the inclusion of transport-related infrastructure related to tricycle service with their investment planning and programming, the roll out and implementation of tricycle code of the city, and the piloting activity of introducing e-tricycle in the city.
    Date: 2021–04
  19. By: Lin, Yatang (Hong Kong University of Science & Technology); McDermott, Thomas K. J. (London School of Economics); Michaels, Guy (London School of Economics)
    Abstract: Construction on low elevation coastal zones is risky for both residents and taxpayers who bail them out, especially when sea levels are rising. We study this construction using spatially disaggregated data on the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts. We document nine stylized facts, including a sizeable rise in the share of coastal housing built on flood-prone land from 1990-2010, which concentrated particularly in densely populated areas. To explain our findings, we develop a model of a monocentric coastal city, which we then use to explore the consequences of sea level rise and government policies.
    Keywords: cities, climate change, sea level rise
    JEL: R11 Q54 R14
    Date: 2021–04
  20. By: Gordon H. Hanson
    Abstract: I examine the specialization of US commuting zones in AI-related occupations over the 2000 to 2018 period. I define AI-related jobs based on keywords in Census occupational titles. Using the approach in Lin (2011) to identify new work, I measure job growth related to AI by weighting employment growth in AI-related occupations by the share of job titles in these occupations that were added after 1990. Overall, regional specialization in AI-related activities mirrors that of regional specialization in IT. However, foreign-born and native-born workers within the sector tend to cluster in different locations. Whereas specialization of the foreign-born in AI-related jobs is strongest in high-tech hubs with a preponderance of private-sector employment, native-born specialization in AI-related jobs is strongest in centers for military and space-related research. Nationally, foreign-born workers account for 55% of job growth in AI-related occupations since 2000. In regression analysis, I find that US commuting zones exposed to a larger increases in the supply of college-educated immigrants became more specialized in AI-related occupations and that this increased specialization was due entirely to the employment of the foreign born. My results suggest that access to highly skilled workers constrains AI-related job growth and that immigration of the college-educated helps relax this constraint.
    JEL: J61 R12
    Date: 2021–04
  21. By: Verhagen, Mark D.
    Abstract: Out-of-sample prediction is not often applied within educational research, although it can complement existing methods in important ways. Prediction gives an intuitive measure of a model's (in)ability to structure an outcome of interest, and complements the aggregate statistics usually obtained from typical in-sample methods. In this paper, I illustrate the potential of prediction through the study of teacher bias in tracking in the Netherlands. I show how the use of prediction identifies misspecification in the simple interval-model often estimated in the field, and can be used to obtain insights when estimating less interpretable, albeit more appropriate models. Substantively, I find that girls are positively biased in tracking net of observed ability, while students of low parental education are negatively biased. Importantly, the latter effect may have been structurally under-estimated in prior work. I also identify the school level to be a more substantial source of bias than student-level demographics, lending further support to calls to study school-level heterogeneity in tracking. My findings further accentuate the risks involved in tracking and fall broadly in line with increasing calls to re-evaluate the Dutch tracking system.
    Date: 2021–04–19
  22. By: John Van Reenen
    Abstract: If innovation is to be subsidized, a natural place to start is to increase the quantity and quality of human capital. Innovation, after all, begins with people. Simply stimulating the "demand side" through R&D subsidies and tax breaks may only drive up the price, rather than the volume of research activity. By contrast, increasing the supply of potential inventors can both directly increase innovation and reduce its cost. This paper examines the evidence on human capital policies for stimulating innovation such as expanding the home-grown workforce, fostering immigration, boosting universities and reducing barriers to entry into inventor careers, especially for under-represented groups. The evidence suggests targeting high ability but disadvantaged potential inventors at an early age is likely to have the largest long-run effects on growth.
    Keywords: innovation, R&D, intellectual property, tax, competition
    JEL: O31 O32
    Date: 2021–04
  23. By: Yafei Zhang; Lin Wang; Jonathan J. H. Zhu; Xiaofan Wang
    Abstract: The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has wreaked havoc worldwide with millions of lives claimed, human travel restricted, and economic development halted. Leveraging city-level mobility and case data across mainland China, our analysis shows that the spatial dissemination of COVID-19 in mainland China can be well explained by the human migration from Wuhan and there will be very different outcomes if the COVID-19 outbreak occurred in other cities. For example, the outbreak in Beijing or Guangzhou would result in a $\sim$90% increase of COVID-19 cases at the end of the Chinese New Year holiday. After the implementation of a series of control measures, human mobility had experienced substantial changes toward containing the spread of COVID-19. Our results also suggest an inequality of economic deprivation as less developed areas generally suffered more severe economic recession during the COVID-19. Intuitively, it's anticipated that cities with more confirmed cases would suffer more economic losses. However, for cities outside of Hubei province, we don't observe such a phenomenon. Our work has important implications for the mitigation of disease and the reevaluation of the social and economic consequences of COVID-19 on our society.
    Date: 2021–04
  24. By: Bredtmann, Julia
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of the 2015 mass inflow of refugees to Germany on electoral outcomes. Specifically, using unique data on refugee populations and their type of accommodation, I analyze how local exposure to refugees affects the outcomes of the March 2016 state election - an election that was characterized by a strong surge in the electoral success of right-wing parties. For identification, I exploit quasi-random variation in the allocation of refugees across municipalities. The results show that an increase in the population share of refugees increases the vote share of right-wing parties and decreases the vote share of the incumbent federal government parties. The electoral effects, however, are solely driven by refugees living in centralized accommodation, and particularly by municipalities that host reception centers for refugees. These findings have important implications for the design of public policies in handling future receptions of refugees, as they reveal that an earlier transfer of refugees from centralized to decentralized accommodation could attenuate a growing support for right-wing parties.
    Keywords: Immigration,refugees,political economy,voting
    JEL: D72 F22 J15 R23
    Date: 2020
  25. By: Milovanska-Farrington, Stefani (University of Tampa)
    Abstract: With more than 29 million confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the U.S. and 119 million cases worldwide, the pandemic has affected companies, households and the global economy. We explore the effect of this health and economic shock on labor market outcomes, and the changes in labor market disparities between ethnic groups and genders. The results provide evidence of an adverse effect of Covid-19 on labor market outcomes of all demographic groups, a widening gap between the employment prospects of minorities and whites, but no change in the earnings gaps between racial and ethnic groups. We also do not find a deterioration of the differentials between genders. The findings have implications related to the priorities of policy decision makers when implementing policies to combat race and ethnic, and gender gaps in the labor market.
    Keywords: labor market, ethnic disparities, gender disparities, inequality, health and economic shock, COVID-19
    JEL: J70 J71 J01 J15 J23
    Date: 2021–04
  26. By: Lucy Prior (Centre for Multilevel Modelling, School of Education, University of Bristol); John Jerrim (UCL Social Research Institute, University College London); Dave Thomson (FFT Education Datalab); George Leckie (Centre for Multilevel Modelling, School of Education, University of Bristol)
    Abstract: School performance measures are published annually in England to hold schools to account and to support parental school choice. This article reviews and evaluates the 'Progress 8' secondary school accountability system for state-funded schools. We assess the statistical strengths and weaknesses of Progress 8 relating to: choice of pupil outcome attainment measure; potential adjustments for pupil input attainment and background characteristics; decisions around which schools and pupils are excluded from the measure; presentation of Progress 8 to users, choice of statistical model, and calculation of statistical uncertainty; and issues related to the volatility of school performance over time, including scope for reporting multi-year averages. We then discuss challenges for Progress 8 raised by the COVID-19 pandemic. Six simple recommendations follow to improve Progress 8 and school accountability in England.
    Keywords: Progress 8, school performance measures, school accountability, school choice, school league tables, value-added model, COVID-19
    JEL: I2
    Date: 2021–04
  27. By: Brian G. Knight; Maria Mercedes Ponce de Leon; Ana Tribin
    Abstract: This paper investigates the link between gender and crime using information from a gender-based lockdown policy in Bogota Colombia during the pandemic. Under the policy, men were allowed out on odd days and women on even days, and we investigate whether overall crime rates differed and whether crime was lower on women-only days. We compare crime in Bogota to other cities and, within Bogota, the gender-based lockdown period to weeks with other lockdown policies. Our key findings are that crime rates are higher during the gender-based lockdown policy and that this is driven by more crime involving male victims and on men-only days. There is no evidence that higher crime on men-only days is offset by less crime on women-only days. The higher crimes on men-only days is driven by robbery, stolen cars and motorcycles, and homicides. We find higher sexual crimes on women-only days and an increase in domestic violence on both types of days. Taken together, our results suggest that gender segregation, if anything, tends to increase crime.
    JEL: J1 K4 O1
    Date: 2021–04
  28. By: Verdouw, Julia; Yanotti, Maria B.; De Vries, Jacqueline; Flanagan, Kathleen; Haman, Omar Ben
    Abstract: This research examines the consequences of COVID-19 for households in regional Australia, and considers that post-pandemic recovery models designed for large cities such as Sydney or Melbourne may not work in regional areas or less-urbanised states like South Australia or Tasmania.
    Date: 2021–04–21
  29. By: Maravall Buckwalter, Laura; Domènech Feliu, Jordi; Basco Mascaro, Sergi
    Abstract: We use a novel high-frequency, municipality-level dataset to examine the impact of land reform on rural conflict in 1930s Spain, a classical example of property rights reform in a developing economy. We distinguish between types of implementation and consider five types of conflicts: land invasions, peasant strikes, clashes, petty theft and attacks on land owner assets. By performing a differences-indifferences regression analysis, we document three main results. First, overall, land reform only increased the number of reported petty thefts, lasting around two years, followed by a reversion to pre-reform levels. Second, the effects of land reform depend on its implementation. A technical implementation was conducive, if anything, to fewer conflicts (clashes and attacks). In contrast, a more political implementation (which gave, on average, less land per peasant) increased reported petty theft sand, to a lower extent, attacks on owners'assets. Third, we provide suggestive evidence that the fall in income of settlers (the, a priori, benefficiaries) explains the increase in social conflict. Our results highlight the importance of the design and implementation of social policies, especially in the context of an agrarian economy.
    Keywords: Spain; Interwar Europe; Conflict; Land Reform; Property Rights
    JEL: Q28 Q24 Q10 P14 O13 N54
    Date: 2021–04–15
  30. By: Díaz, Juan (Universidad de Chile); Sánchez, Rafael (Centro de Estudios Públicos); Villarroel, Gabriel (Ministry of Finance, Chile); Villena, Mauricio G. (Universidad Diego Portales)
    Abstract: Using Chilean administrative datasets for the period 2011-2017, we study which of the most used tools to evaluate teacher quality, namely teachers' evaluation tests (TET) and teacher's value added (TVA), predicts more accurately not only short run (as most of the literature focus on) but also middle run students' outcomes. For this evaluation we follow the same cohorts of students and teachers. Our results suggest that the correlation between (TET) and (TVA) appears to be null in school outcomes. However, our analysis also reveals that both measures, TET and TVA, positively affect the probability of tertiary education attendance, indicating that both measures are complementary in measuring teacher quality in the middle run. These results have relevance from the public policy point of view as unlike countries (e.g. USA) where TVA is used for teacher's promotions and personnel decisions, in countries where TVA is not used for teacher's personnel decisions (e.g. Chile), TVA seems to be useful to measure teacher quality. Furthermore, our findings are consistent with the argument of the multidimensionality of teaching quality, because even though in the short run TVA and TET seem to be orthogonal, in the medium run they seem to be complementary tools to measure teacher effectiveness.
    Keywords: teacher quality, value added, teacher evaluation test, Chile
    JEL: I20 I23 I26 I28
    Date: 2021–04
  31. By: Brain, Isabel; Prieto, Joaquin
    Abstract: The geography of opportunity research has made significant progress in recent years. The use of composite indexes aimed at capturing the attributes of different urban areas has been particularly useful to deepen the understanding of the role that the urban context plays in people’s life chances. However, little attention has been paid to the dynamic component of the geography of opportunity, that is, what explains its changes over time and whether or not those changes (positive or negative) are substantial. The contribution of this work is that it offers a methodology (a conceptual framework, a composite geography of opportunity index and relative and absolute measures) that provides a holistic and in-depth approach to analyse not only the set of opportunities available in the different urban areas but also their change over time (how they change, the depth of those changes and the forces explaining it). The information generated through this approach has the advantage of better informing place-based policy interventions since it offers not only a clear classification of areas but also a useful method for comparing and monitoring the changes in the geography of opportunity over time.
    Keywords: geography of opportunity; drives of urban change; multidimensional indices; municipal fiscal capacity; urban attributes; urban land market activity
    JEL: R14 J01 N0
    Date: 2021–04–01
  32. By: Pierre Lefebvre (Department of Economics, University of Quebec in Montreal); Philip Merrigan (Department of Economics, University of Quebec in Montreal)
    Abstract: Canada is recognized as one of the top 10 countries in secondary education according to PISA results. A particularly intriguing case in this country is the large system of highly subsidized independent schools in the province of Québec where students also perform extremely well in PISA testing. This paper uses the year Canadian 2000 PISA cohort of 15-year-olds to estimate the ATT effect of independent schooling on educational attainment. We find large, positive, robust, and statistically significant effects of independent schooling on attainment. The robustness of the results to omitted variable bias is addressed through a sensitivity analysis for matching estimators.
    Keywords: YITS, high school graduation, postsecondary education and professional programs enrollment and graduation, longitudinal data, treatment effect, entropy balancing
    JEL: I20 I21 I28
    Date: 2021–04
  33. By: Christiern Rose
    Abstract: We consider identification of peer effects under peer group miss-specification. Our model of group miss-specification allows for missing data and peer group uncertainty. Missing data can take the form of some individuals being completely absent from the data, and the researcher need not have any information on these individuals and may not even know that they are missing. We show that peer effects are nevertheless identifiable if these individuals are missing completely at random, and propose a GMM estimator which jointly estimates the sampling probability and peer effects. In practice this means that the researcher need only have access to an individual/household level sample with group identifiers. The researcher may also be uncertain as to what is the relevant peer group for the outcome under study. We show that peer effects are nevertheless identifiable provided that the candidate peer groups are nested within one another (e.g. classroom, grade, school) and propose a non-linear least squares estimator. We conduct a Monte-Carlo experiment to demonstrate our identification results and the performance of the proposed estimators in a setting tailored to real data (the Dartmouth room-mate data).
    Date: 2021–04
  34. By: Tetsuji Okazaki (Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo, Japan); Toshihiro Okubo (Faculty of Economics, Keio University, Japan); Eric Strobl (Department of Economics, Bern University, Switzerland)
    Abstract: Natural disasters can seriously damage firms as well as the banks that they use independent of their size. However, it is small- and medium-sized firms in particular that will be affected by this because they tend to be financially constrained and thus greatly depend on these potentially damaged local banks for financing. In this paper, we focus on the Great Kanto Earthquake of 1923, which resulted in serious damage to small- and medium-sized firms and banks in Yokohama City, to investigate how effective the provision of loans by local banks, as well as the Earthquake Bills policy implemented by the Bank of Japan, was in helping firms recover. Using linked firm- and bank-level datasets, we find that larger local banks allowed damaged firms to survive and grow. The Earthquake Bills policy mitigated the negative impact of bank damage on firms and prevented credit crunch, although this deteriorated the balance sheet of local banks and resulted in financial instability and a banking crisis as a side effect.
    Date: 2021–04
  35. By: Charles Ka Yui Leung (City University of Hong Kong); Edward Chi Ho Tang (Hong Kong Shue Yan University)
    Abstract: The house price-to-income ratio (PIR) is widely used as an affordability indicator. This paper complements the cross-sectionally focused literature by proposing a tractable model for the PIR dynamics. Our model predicts that the PIR is very persistent and is correlated to the lagged aggregate output. Cross-country analysis confirms this prediction and provides evidence for a long-term, positive and significant relationship between PIR and aggregate production. Our results hint at the construction of an early warning system for housing market mispricing. Our tractable formulation of a stochastic money growth rule may carry independent research interest
    Keywords: housing affordability, output dynamics, endogenous house price, wage rigidity, monetary policy rule
    JEL: E30 O40 R30
    Date: 2021–03–07
  36. By: Carozzi, Felipe
    Abstract: During the housing bust of 2008-2009, housing prices and transaction volumes fell across the United Kingdom. Although the drop in prices was similar across housing types, transaction volumes fell more for units at the lower end of the market. I document this fact and provide panel and instrumental variable estimates showing its link with tightening credit conditions in England and Wales during 2008. I then use an overlapping-generation framework to relate the change in the composition of sales with the reduction in loan-to-value ratios by British banks and to derive additional predictions. As down-payment requirements increase, young households with scarce financial resources are priced out by older owners who retain their previous houses as rental properties when trading up. Recent changes in aggregate housing tenure, disaggregated changes in renting, and sales in areas with different age compositions, are consistent with these predictions. The results presented here show how the composition of sales changes over the housing cycle and may inform ongoing policy discussions about reduced access to home-ownership by the young.
    Keywords: housing markets; housing transactions; credit constraints; 269868
    JEL: G21 R31
    Date: 2020–06–01
  37. By: Liza Charroin (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne); Bernard Fortin (Département d'Economique, Université Laval - ULaval - Université Laval [Québec], CIRPEE - Centre interuniversitaire sur le risque, les politiques économiques et l'emploi [Montréal] - UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal, CIRANO - Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations - UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics); Marie Villeval (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics)
    Abstract: If individuals tend to behave like their peers, is it because of conformity, that is, the preference of people to align behavior with the behavior of their peers; homophily, that is, the tendency of people to bond with similar others; or both? We address this question in the context of an ethical dilemma. Using a peer effect model allowing for homophily, we designed a real-effort laboratory experiment in which individuals could misreport their performance to earn more. Our results reveal a preference for conformity and for homophily in the selection of peers, but only among participants who were cheating in isolation. The size of peer effects is similar when identical peers were randomly assigned and when they were selected by individuals. We thus jointly reject the presence of a self-selection bias in the peer effect estimates and of a link strength effect.
    Keywords: Peer Effects,Homophily,Dishonesty,Self-Selection Bias,Experiment
    Date: 2021–04
  38. By: Krieger, Tim
    Abstract: This chapter explores the complex interaction between migration and terrorism. It proposes a 'terrorism-migration cycle' to investigate systematically this interaction at every stage of the migration process. Importantly, no stage of the migration process is independent of what happened on the previous stage, affecting how terrorism and migration interact. It is shown that terrorism may be a trigger of migration in the origin country, that only particular selections of migrants choose to leave a country, and that these migrants then sort into different destinations. The role of migration governance as a means to avoid the influx of potential terrorists is explored as well as the responses of destination-country populations and governments to the threat of imported terrorism. As yet other challenges, homegrown terrorism within immigrant communities and political violence directed against immigrants are discussed. Finally, it is argued that there are feedback effects of diasporas on the origin countries of immigrant communities.
    Date: 2020
  39. By: Luke Milsom
    Abstract: This paper maps the changing landscape of opportunity in Benin, Cameroon, and Mali, using a movers design to isolate the causal effect of place on primary education completion. On average, I find that 70% of the observed spatial variation in primary education completion can be attributed to causal place effects. I then estimate and map locality-year specific causal place effects, providing the first step in developing place-based policies to improve child opportunities. I find that the impact of place is: stronger for females, unequal across space, persistent over time, and correlated with locality level observables.
    Date: 2021–03–23
  40. By: Jaqueline Oliveira; Bruno Palialol, Paula Pereda
    Abstract: The relationship between temperature and agriculture outcomes in Brazil has been widely explored, overlooking that most of the country's labor force is employed in nonagriculture sectors. We use monthly individual-level panel data spanning January 2015 to December 2016 to ask whether temperature shocks impact non-agriculture wages in formal labor markets. Our results show that a 1oC shock increases wages where climate are colder, but reduces wages where climate are hotter. We calculate that wages fall 0.42% on average, an income loss equivalent to 0.06% of GDP annually. Assuming future temperatures rise uniformly by 2oC, and that no adaptation occurs, we expect annual income losses five times larger. The heterogeneous effects we find also suggest that weather vulnerability may deepen existing income inequalities.
    Keywords: temperature shocks; labor productivity; nominal wage exibility; non-agriculture sector; formal labor markets
    JEL: C23 J24 Q54
    Date: 2021–04–14
  41. By: Plomien, Ania; Schwartz, G
    Abstract: This article examines how transnational labour mobility in uneven and combined Europe has emerged as a critical response to the problems of capitalist production and social reproduction. Analysing the interconnected mobilities of labour between Ukraine, Poland and the UK in the food production, care provision and housing construction sectors, the article examines how states benefit from lower unemployment and reduced labour shortages, employers profit from qualified and reliable workers, and households gain access to jobs and incomes. It argues that transnational labour mobility is constitutive of the inherently interdependent production–reproduction processes. In this constellation, transnational labour mobility becomes a form of mitigation of depletion through social reproduction. However, it further argues that such a mitigation strategy is unbalanced and unsustainable as its costs and benefits are unequally distributed, forestalling resource inflows that could attenuate outflows. Therefore, harms – in particular, the harm to citizenship entitlements – emerge despite labour mobility mitigating depletion.
    Keywords: citizenship entitlements; depletion; gendered harms; labour mobility; social reproduction
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2020–06–01
  42. By: Kosfeld, Reinhold; Mitze, Timo; Rode, Johannes; Wälde, Klaus
    Abstract: The paper studies the containment effects of public health measures to curb the spread of Covid-19 during the first wave of the pandemic in spring 2020 in Germany. To identify the effects of six compound sets of public health measures, we employ a spatial difference-in-differences approach. We find that contact restrictions, mandatory wearing of face masks and closure of schools substantially contributed to flattening the infection curve. The significance of the impact of restaurant closure does not prove to be robust. No incremental effect is evidenced for closure of establishments and the shutdown of non-essential retail stores.
    Date: 2021–04–13
  43. By: Tribillon, Justinien
    Abstract: This article proposes an archaeology of the concept of ‘infrastructure’, focusing specifically on a period ranging from 1842 until 1951, before the term entered the English language from French. In doing so, it contributes to an ongoing discussion on ‘What does infrastructure really mean?’ by deconstructing the omnipresent concept of ‘infrastructure’ as an expression of modernity that has crystallised a sociotechnical imaginary: a relation between technology, space and power. Indeed, our understanding of its etymological, epistemological and intellectual origins is patchy, based on repeated chronological mistakes and conceptual misunderstandings. To put it bluntly: we do not know how the word came to be. By unearthing the origins of ‘infrastructure’, this article aims to contribute to scholarly debates on the definition(s) of infrastructure in social sciences, urban studies, science and technology studies and infrastructure studies. It also wishes to contribute to ongoing debates taking place in the public sphere regarding what should count as ‘infrastructure’. This paper’s findings demonstrate a clear relation to Karl Marx’s ‘historical materialism’; the paper also analyses how the word evolved over a short period of time to become sociotechnical metaphor; finally, the paper demonstrates the emergence of a concept that linked engineering to larger socioeconomic concerns in the 1890s, well before the emergence of ‘infrastructure’ as a key concept of development economics in the 1950s.
    Date: 2021–04–18
  44. By: Fabrizio Fusillo (Università di Torino); Sandro Montresor (Gran Sasso Science Institute); Giuseppe Vittucci Marzetti (Università di Milano-Bicocca)
    Abstract: We combine the World Input-Output Dataset (WIOD) with OECD data on Analytical Business Enterprise R&D (ANBERD) and build up the network that emerges by mapping the sectoral R&D expenditure that flows in an embodied way among 690 industry-country nodes (23 industries of 30 countries), from 2009 to 2013. Drawing on frontier network analysis techniques, we examine the distribution of the relational properties of the country-industry nodes, identify the most central of them, and detect the clusters that they form. Our analysis reveals that, while the diffusion of embodied R&D is highly pervasive on a global scale, the linkages it creates across sectors tend to be highly asymmetric and polarised. Furthermore, except for transportation and ICT related industries, embodied R&D flows determine communities largely confined within national borders. Despite being based on structural inputoutput relationships, the position and role of country-industry nodes in the global network of embodied R&D knowledge show a certain variability both over time and across network dimensions.
    Keywords: R&D flows, input-output, global innovation network, network analysis
    JEL: O33 R15 O57
    Date: 2021–04
  45. By: Dong, Xiaoge
    Abstract: In this paper, we focus on determinants of judicial efficiency in China, with efficiency estimates of district courts obtained from data envelopment analysis (DEA). Our dataset comprises 1584 local courts pooled from the year 2014 - 2017. Controlling for local economic development level as well as the financial status and staff quality of local courts, we find a significant and robust impact of the location of local courts. More specifically, the performance of a court will be better when it is located in/closer to a higher city tier, the city center, the city government, or the provincial government even if the economic development of such areas is no better than others. Such courts probably receive (in)-direct political support and favorable local policy. Our result thus also has implications for judicial independence in China. Although the Chinese Central Government has been trying to separate the local legal system from local politics, local courts are still being affected by geopolitical factors in reality.
    Keywords: Chinese Court system,Court efficiency,data envelopment analysis,geopolitics
    JEL: K1 K40 K30 N45 P21 P37
    Date: 2021
  46. By: Fan, Ying (Hong Kong Polytechnic University); Leung, Charles Ka Yui (City University of Hong Kong); Yang, Zan (Tsinghua University)
    Abstract: This paper studies whether (and how) corporate decisions are affected by internal factors (such as the financial conditions of own company) and external factors (such as the actions of local competitors) in an imperfectly competitive environment. We study the listed real estate developers in Beijing as a case study. Our hand-collected dataset includes transaction-level information booked indicators (such as profitability, liability, and liquidity) and un-booked financial indicators (political connections). Our multi-step empirical model shows that both the firm's financial conditions and her competitors' counterparts are essential but play different roles in the output design, pricing, and the time-on-the-market (TOM). Internal versus external factors' relative importance relates to the degrees of market concentration in a nonlinear manner. Local market leaders' existence alters the small firms' strategy and leads to higher selling prices and slower selling pace in the local market. Our findings survive various robust checks.
    Keywords: corporate financial status, output market decision, internal and external driven, real estate developers, housing supply
    JEL: G11 R30 L10
    Date: 2021–04–15
  47. By: Carolina Zuccotti (CONICET-UdeSA); Lucinda Platt (London School of Economics)
    Abstract: Despite lower social class origins, children of immigrants in the UK are now attaining high levels of education. However, they experience poorer labour market outcomes, often attributed in part to disadvantaged origins. This paper engages with this paradox. We posit two potential mechanisms for second-generation educational success—social class misallocation and immigrant advantage—and discuss how far these sources of advantage might be replicated in labour market outcomes. We substantiate our discussion with empirical analyses. Drawing on a unique longitudinal study of England and Wales spanning 40 years and encompassing one percent of the population, we present new evidence on the educational and occupational social mobility of men and women from four immigrant-origin groups and the white British majority. We demonstrate that ethnic minorities’ educational advantage is only partially reflected in the labour market. We reflect on the implications of our findings for research on ‘ethnic penalties’ and social mobility.
    Date: 2021–04
  48. By: Auerbach, A; Gorodnichenko, Y; Murphy, D
    Abstract: We estimate local fiscal multipliers and spillovers for the USA using a rich dataset based on the US Department of Defense contracts and a variety of outcome variables relating to income and employment. We find strong positive spillovers across locations and industries. Both backward linkages and general equilibrium effects (e.g., income multipliers) contribute to the positive spillovers. Geographical spillovers appear to dissipate fairly quickly with distance. Our evidence points to the relevance of Keynesian-type models that feature excess capacity.
    Keywords: E62, H5, Applied Economics, Banking, Finance and Investment, Economics, Banking, Finance and Investment
    Date: 2020–03–01
  49. By: Camilo Andrés Acosta Mejía
    JEL: O18 R14 R23 R31
    Date: 2021–04–14
  50. By: Sanmay Shelat; Oded Cats; Sander van Cranenburgh
    Abstract: Public transport ridership around the world has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. Travellers are likely to adapt their behaviour to avoid the risk of transmission and these changes may even be sustained after the pandemic. To evaluate travellers' behaviour in public transport networks during these times and assess how they will respond to future changes in the pandemic, we conduct a stated choice experiment with train travellers in the Netherlands. We specifically assess behaviour related to three criteria affecting the risk of COVID-19 transmission: (i) crowding, (ii) exposure duration, and (iii) prevalent infection rate. Observed choices are analysed using a latent class choice model which reveals two, nearly equally sized traveller segments: 'COVID Conscious' and 'Infection Indifferent'. The former has a significantly higher valuation of crowding, accepting, on average 8.75 minutes extra waiting time to reduce one person on-board. Moreover, they demonstrate a strong desire to sit without anybody in their neighbouring seat and are quite sensitive to changes in the prevalent infection rate. By contrast, Infection Indifferent travellers' value of crowding (1.04 waiting time minutes/person) is only slightly higher than pre-pandemic estimates and they are relatively unaffected by infection rates. We find that older and female travellers are more likely to be COVD Conscious while those reporting to use the trains more frequently during the pandemic tend to be Infection Indifferent. Further analysis also reveals differences between the two segments in attitudes towards the pandemic and self-reported rule-following behaviour. The behavioural insights from this study will not only contribute to better demand forecasting for service planning but will also inform public transport policy decisions aimed at curbing the shift to private modes.
    Date: 2021–04
  51. By: Peter Warr; Arief Anshory Yusuf
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected Indonesia severely. It was initially an urban event, but the loss of urban jobs has induced a large urban to rural migration, which we call de-urbanisation. This phenomenon temporarily reversed the long-term process of rural to urban reallocation of labour. In early 2021 the approximate size of this de-urbanisation was known, but not its effects. This paper analyses the general equilibrium consequences of this overlooked feature of the pandemic. The analysis shows that taking deurbanisation into account, the negative economic impact of the pandemic is largest among rural, not urban households, especially the poorest.
    Keywords: De-industrialisation; Indonesia; COVID-19; structural change; rural poverty; urban poverty; inequality.
    JEL: I15 O12 O53
    Date: 2021
  52. By: Sofia Amaral; Sonia Bhalotra; Nishith Prakash
    Abstract: We examine the impact of establishing women police stations (WPS) on reporting of gender-based violence. Using administrative crime data and exploiting staggered implementation across Indian cities, we find that the opening of WPS is associated with an increase in police reports of crimes against women of 29 percent, a result driven by domestic violence. This appears to reflect reporting rather than incidence as we find no changes in femicide or in survey-reported domestic violence. We also find some evidence of an increase in women’s labor supply following WPS opening, consistent with women feeling safer once the costs of reporting violence fall.
    Keywords: women police stations, gender-based violence, women in policing, India
    JEL: J12 J16 J78 K14 K31 K42 N92 I12
    Date: 2021
  53. By: Duleep, Harriet; Liu, Xingfei; Regets, Mark
    Abstract: Two radically different descriptions of immigrant earnings trajectories in the U.S. have emerged. One asserts that immigrant men following the 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act have low initial earnings and high earnings growth. Another asserts that post-1965 immigrants have low initial earnings and low earnings growth. We describe the methodological issues that create this divide and show that low earnings growth becomes high earnings growth when immigrants are followed from their initial years in the U.S., earnings growth is allowed to vary with entry earnings, and-when following cohorts instead of individuals-sample restrictions commonly used by labor economists are avoided.
    Keywords: Sample restrictions,immigrant earning growth,human capital investment,the U.S. census
    JEL: J1 J2 J3 C1
    Date: 2021
  54. By: Antonio Ciccone
    Abstract: According to Gibrat's law for cities, population shocks have permanent effects on city size. I examine this implication by analyzing the persistence of observed population shocks: German military casualties in WWI by municipality of birth. I find a strong negative effect of military casualties on the male population of municipalities just after WWI. This effect persists to 1933 and, outside of the most agricultural municipalities, beyond. The effect on female population and the number of households is similar to the effect on male population by 1950, when women in the generation that fought in WWI started reaching their life expectancy.
    Date: 2021–04

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