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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Xiaoqing Zhou |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the transmission of the major shocks in the U.S. housing market in the 2000s to consumption and residential investment. Using geographically disaggregated data, I show that residential investment is more responsive to these shocks than consumption, as measured by elasticities and the implied contributions to GDP growth. I develop a structural life-cycle model featuring multiple types of housing investment to understand the large responses of residential investment. Consistent with the microdata, the model generates lumpy debt accumulation, lumpy housing investment and a strong correlation between mortgage borrowing and housing investment at the early stage of the life cycle. In the model, households move up the property ladder by increasing their mortgage debt after they have accumulated enough home equity. Since liquidity constraints and fixed costs prevent especially young homeowners from acquiring their desired home, shocks to their borrowing capacity have a large impact on residential investment. |
| Keywords: | Mortgage borrowing; Consumption; Residential investment; House price; Mortgage rate; Credit supply; Business cycle |
| JEL: | D1 E2 E3 |
| Date: | 2021–03–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:90498&r=all |
| By: | Tavassoli, Sam (RMIT University); Obchonka, Martin (Australian Center for Entrepreneurship Research); Audretsch, David B. (Indiana University) |
| Abstract: | Impactful, growth-oriented entrepreneurship is a major research and policy focus. Building on arguments put forward by Jane Jacobs more than 50 years ago, we propose that local knowledge spillovers in a city are enhanced by human agency in that city (e.g. local psychological openness). This effect is critically amplified by the catalyst function of a favorable structural city environment that not only connects these agentic people (via urban density), but also facilitates the production and flow of new knowledge for these connected agentic people (via a diverse industry mix). This three-way interaction effect was confirmed in our empirical investigation of quality entrepreneurship across the MSAs (cities) in the US, using a large-scale dataset of the psychological profiles of millions of people. Local openness shows a robust positive effect on the level of quality entrepreneurship. This effect is further strengthened by a favorable structural city environment (i.e. high density and diversity) by up to 35%. Reviving Jacobs’ people focus, the results indicate that the best performing cities in terms of knowledge spillovers and economic performance are those that are not only home to, and attract, agentic people, but also empower these people by means of a physical and industrial city landscape that enables them to act in more innovative and entrepreneurial ways, as envisioned by Jacobs. We discuss the policy implications of our findings and an agenda for future research. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship; Cities; Jacobs externalities; Knowledge Spillovers; Diversity; Density; Personality traits; Openness; Geographical psychology |
| JEL: | D83 D91 L26 O18 |
| Date: | 2021–03–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2021_002&r=all |
| By: | Ning Ma (Hainan College of Economics and Business); Yanrui Wu (Business School, the University of Western Australia; Research Centre in Business, Economics and Resources, Ho Chi Minh City Open University; Faculty of Finance, Banking and Business Administration, Quy Nhon University); Jianxin Wu (Jinan University) |
| Abstract: | Using a spatial equilibrium model and data of 286 Chinese cities at the prefecture and above- prefecture level from 2002 to 2013, this study estimates the contribution of each of the selected Chinese cities to national GDP growth. The results in this study reveal several interesting patterns. First, what an individual city contributes to aggregate growth is not represented clearly by the city’s GDP based on standard accounting calculation. Despite some of the strongest growth occurring in cities such as Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Chongqing, these cities were only responsible for a small fraction of China’s growth over the period covered. In fact, the analysis shows that it is growth in the cities in the west that has made the greatest contribution to the overall growth of China. Furthermore, the analysis of the results shows that the dispersion of the real wage across Chinese cities increased. This increased wage dispersion lowered aggregate Chinese GDP by 25.41 percent. This represents a loss, which is an effect of the tightening of regulatory constraints to housing supply in high productivity cities like Beijing, Tianjin, Harbin, Shanghai, Wuhan, Changsha, Chongqing, Chengdu, and Xian. Finally, a counterfactual scenario whereby these cities under regulatory constraints are reduced to the same level as the national mean level suggests that Chinese GDP would increase by 20.62 percent. |
| Keywords: | Spatial Equilibrium; Urban Growth; Welfare; China |
| JEL: | C6 O18 O53 R11 R31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwa:wpaper:21-03&r=all |
| By: | Yamasaki, Junichi; Nakajima, Kentaro; Teshima, Kensuke |
| Abstract: | Can transaction costs in the urban land market generate lot size persistence and persistently hinder efficient land use? Using historical data in Tokyo, we study how initial lot fragmentation has affected urban development by exploiting the plausibly exogenous supply shock of large lots in 1868, the release of local lords’ estates (daimyo yashiki) scattered throughout old Tokyo, now the central business district. We construct a 100 m*100 m-cell-level dataset spanning 150 years. Using ordinary least squares and a regression discontinuity design, we find that cells previously used as local lords’ estates have larger lots today, implying that lot size persistence exists. We also find positive effects on land use and activities, that is, taller buildings, higher land prices, and higher firm productivity, implying lot size premia due to assembly frictions. We provide two pieces of evidence that these positive effects are explained by the growth of skyscrapers requiring large footprints. First, tall buildings explain the effect of local lords’ estates on firm productivity today. Second, we find no positive impact on land prices before the skyscraper age. Instead, it was negative, suggesting that split frictions were dominant at that time and assembly frictions became more relevant with the emergence of skyscrapers. |
| Keywords: | Transaction costs, Historical persistence, Skyscrapers, Lot fragmentation, Agglomeration economy |
| JEL: | R14 R30 O18 N95 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:tdbcdp:e-2020-02&r=all |
| By: | Keim-Klärner, Sylvia; Bernard, Josef; Bischof, Susann; Dülmen, Christoph van; Klärner, Andreas; Steinführer, Annett |
| Abstract: | The aim of this Working Paper is to introduce a conceptual model and study design for researching social disadvantage in rural peripheries, focusing on the interplay of social disadvantage and spatial disadvantage. The paper presents the theoretical concepts,understandings, and definitions, as well as the research design we draw on in the international research project ‘Social disadvantage in rural peripheries in Czechia and eastern Germany: opportunity structures and individual agency in a comparative perspective.’ The project investigates the multifaceted relationships between social disadvantage, local and regional opportunity structures,and individual agency in rural peripheries in Czechia and eastern Germany from a comparative perspective. It focuses on two sets of research questions. The first set concerns the quantitative patterns of social disadvantage and spatial disadvantage in rural areas. The second set asks about the impact of opportunity structures as part of the residential context on particularly disadvantaged groups in four case study regions. The project applies theories of peripheralization and rural restructuring, and considers social networks and individual agency. Area-level secondary data and accessibility analyses and qualitative case studies,including ego-centered network analyses and GPS mapping of time-space activity patterns,are used. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2021–04–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:jhimwp:310407&r=all |
| By: | Garcia-Brazales, Javier |
| Abstract: | Identity norms are an important cause of inequalities and talent misallocation. I lever- age a unique opportunity to observe students exogenously allocated to classes across a close-to-nationally-representative set of Vietnamese schools to show that more exposure to female peers during childhood causally decreases the extent of agreement with tradi- tional gender roles in the long-run. This shift in attitudes is accompanied by changes in actual behavior: employing friendship nominations I find that male children have more female friends and spend more time with them outside school. Moreover, both their intensive and extensive margin contributions to home production increase in the short- and the long-run. These results are novel in the attitudes formation and in the long- term effects of peers literature and are important in informing optimal class allocation. Academic spillovers from female classmates are much weaker. |
| Keywords: | Long-term Peer Effects,Gender Roles,Attitudes Formation |
| JEL: | I24 I25 J16 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:232502&r=all |
| By: | Morgan Raux (Department of Economics and Management, Université du Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I investigate how cultural differences affect the labor-market performance of immigrant workers in Germany. I document a negative relationship between hourly wages and the cultural distance between immigrants' countries of origin and Germany. This result is robust across the three main indicators used in the gravity literature: linguistic, religious, and genetic distances. This cultural wage penalty disappears after five to ten years spent in Germany. Controlling for language proficiency as well as for selective in- and out-migration, these results highlight the cultural integration of immigrant workers. I finally provide evidence suggesting that lower wage progression may be explained by fewer job-to-job transitions. |
| Keywords: | Cultural distance, Immigrant Workers. |
| JEL: | J61 Z10 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:luc:wpaper:21-02&r=all |
| By: | Dawid Siwicki (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | The principal aim of this paper is to investigate the potential of machine learning algorithms in context of predicting housing prices. The most important issue in modelling spatial data is to consider spatial heterogeneity that can bias obtained results when is not taken into consideration. The purpose of this research is to compare prediction power of such methods: linear regression, artificial neural network, random forest, extreme gradient boosting and spatial error model. The evaluation was conducted using train, validation, test and k-Fold Cross-Validation methods. We also examined the ability of the above models to identify spatial dependencies, by calculating Moran’s I for residuals obtained on in-sample and out-of-sample data. |
| Keywords: | spatial analysis, machine learning, housing market, random forest, gradient boosting |
| JEL: | C31 C45 C52 C53 C55 R31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2021-05&r=all |
| By: | Koster, Hans R.A. (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Ozgen, Ceren (University of Birmingham) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the relationship between routine-biased technological change and agglomeration economies. Using administrative data from the Netherlands, we first show that in dense areas, jobs are less routine-task intensive (i.e. less repetitive and automatable), meaning that jobs cover a larger spectrum of tasks. We then explore how the routine intensity of jobs affects the urban wage premium. We find that the urban wage premium is higher for workers performing non-routine tasks, particularly analytic tasks, while it is absent for workers in routine task intensive jobs. These findings also hold within skill groups and suggest that routinisation increases spatial wage and skill inequality within urban areas. We further provide suggestive evidence that a better matching of skills to jobs and increased learning opportunities in cities can explain these findings. |
| Keywords: | routinisation, tasks, agglomeration economies, employment density, skills mismatch |
| JEL: | R30 R33 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14231&r=all |
| By: | Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0; Zhaoying Lu (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the effects of a place-based program in China?Special Economic Zone (SEZ) program. It adds to the existing literature by introducing spatial proximity to understand the effects of SEZs on the local economy. Using a panel data set over the period from 2004 to 2007, the empirical results find that SEZs have positive spillover effects on regional productivity, most of which are from the neighborhood. Meanwhile, there exists a positive interdependence between local firms onregional productivity. The magnitude of spillover effects of SEZs is robust to changes in sample data, weight matrices selection, and alternative explanatory variables. |
| Keywords: | Special Economic Zone, Place-based Policy, Spatial Analysis,Productivity, Spillovers |
| JEL: | C21 C23 R10 O21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osk:wpaper:2101&r=all |
| By: | Jorge M. Agüero (University of Connecticut); Marta Favara (University of Oxford); Catherine Porter (Lancaster University); Alan Sánchez (Group for the Analysis of Development) |
| Abstract: | Whether allocating more resources improves learning outcomes for students in low-performing public schools remains an open debate. We focus on the effect of increased instructional time, which is theoretically ambiguous due to possible compensating changes in effort by students, teachers or parents. Using a regression discontinuity approach, we find that a reform extending the school day increases math test scores, with a large effect size relative to other interventions. It also improved reading, technical skills and socio-emotional competencies. Our results are partly explained by reductions in home production by students, specialization by teachers and investments in pedagogical assistance to teachers. |
| Keywords: | Extended school-day reform, Jornada Escolar Completa, JEC, Peru, Young Lives |
| JEL: | I2 I22 I26 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2021-06&r=all |
| By: | Eliana Barrenho (Paris and Imperial College Business School.); Eric Gautier (Toulouse School of Economics); Marisa Miraldo (Imperial College Business School,); Carol Propper (Imperial College Business School); Christiern Rose (School of Economics, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia) |
| Abstract: | We examine the effect of a physician network on medical innovation using novel matched patient-physician-hospital panel data. The data include every relevant physician and all patients in the English NHS for 15 years and physicians’ workplace histories for more than 20. The dynamic network arising from physician mobility between hospitals over time allows us to separate unobserved physician and hospital heterogeneity from the effect of the network. We build on standard peer-effects models by adding cumulative peer behaviour and allow for particularly influential physicians (‘key players’), whose identities we estimate. We find positive effects of peer innovation take-up, number of peers, and proximity in the network to both pioneers of the innovation and key players. Counterfactual estimates suggest that early intervention targeting young, connected physicians with early take-up can significantly increase aggregate take-up. |
| Keywords: | Innovation, medical practice, networks, peer-effects |
| Date: | 2020–12–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qld:uq2004:638&r=all |
| By: | Paul E. Carrillo (George Washington University); Anthony Yezer (George Washington University) |
| Abstract: | This paper demonstrates theoretically and empirically that estimated implicit prices from hedonic equations using house value do not reflect implicit willingness to pay for housing attributes unless very strong conditions are present. The argument is sim- ple. Implicit prices obtained from rental hedonics, consistent with theory, reveal the willingness to pay for current housing services. Therefore hedonic equations relating asset prices to current characteristics only reveal willingness to pay for structure and neighborhood services if CAP rates (rent to value ratios) are constant. In some cases, the sign of the bias inherent in using asset rather than rental prices can be anticipated. Some rules and tests for situations where CAP rates are constant are developed here. |
| Keywords: | Hedonic models, implicit markets, environmental valuation |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2021-03&r=all |
| By: | Agan, Amanda (Rutgers University); Doleac, Jennifer (Texas A&M University); Harvey, Anna (New York University) |
| Abstract: | Communities across the United States are reconsidering the public safety benefits of prosecuting nonviolent misdemeanor offenses. So far there has been little empirical evidence to inform policy in this area. In this paper we report the first estimates of the causal effects of misdemeanor prosecution on defendants' subsequent criminal justice involvement. We leverage the as-if random assignment of nonviolent misdemeanor cases to Assistant District Attorneys (ADAs) who decide whether a case should move forward with prosecution in the Suffolk County District Attorney's Office in Massachusetts. These ADAs vary in the average leniency of their prosecution decisions. We find that, for the marginal defendant, nonprosecution of a nonviolent misdemeanor offense leads to large reductions in the likelihood of a new criminal complaint over the next two years. These local average treatment effects are largest for first-time defendants, suggesting that averting initial entry into the criminal justice system has the greatest benefits. We also present evidence that a recent policy change in Suffolk County imposing a presumption of nonprosecution for a set of nonviolent misdemeanor offenses had similar beneficial effects: the likelihood of future criminal justice involvement fell, with no apparent increase in local crime rates. |
| Keywords: | crime, prosecution, courts, recidivism |
| JEL: | K4 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14234&r=all |
| By: | Rajat Verma; Takahiro Yabe; Satish V. Ukkusuri |
| Abstract: | The rapid early spread of COVID-19 in the U.S. was experienced very differently by different socioeconomic groups and business industries. In this study, we study aggregate mobility patterns of New York City and Chicago to identify the relationship between the amount of interpersonal contact between people in urban neighborhoods and the disparity in the growth of positive cases among these groups. We introduce an aggregate Contact Exposure Index (CEI) to measure exposure due to this interpersonal contact and combine it with social distancing metrics to show its effect on positive case growth. With the help of structural equations modeling, we find that the effect of exposure on case growth was consistently positive and that it remained consistently higher in lower-income neighborhoods, suggesting a causal path of income on case growth via contact exposure. Using the CEI, schools and restaurants are identified as high-exposure industries, and the estimation suggests that implementing specific mobility restrictions on these point-of-interest categories are most effective. This analysis can be useful in providing insights for government officials targeting specific population groups and businesses to reduce infection spread as reopening efforts continue to expand across the nation. |
| Date: | 2021–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2102.03698&r=all |
| By: | Tavassoli, Sam (RMIT University); Karlsson, Charlie (Jönköping International Business School) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we analyze how the location of firms influences their innovation outcomes, particularly the complexity of the outcomes. Using three waves of the Community Innovation Survey in Sweden for a balanced panel of firms from 2006 to 2012, we identified a range of innovation outcome categories, i.e. simple and complex (low-, medium-, highly-complex) innovation outcomes. The backbone of such categorization is based on how firms introduce a combination of Schumpeterian types of innovations (i.e. process, product, marketing, and organizational). Then we consider three regional characteristics that may affect the innovation outcomes of firms, i.e. (i) qualified labor market thickness, (ii) knowledge-intensive services thickness, and (iii) knowledge spillovers extent. We find that regional characteristics do not affect firms’ innovation outcomes in terms of their degree of complexity ubiquitously. They are only positively associated with those firms that introduce the most complex innovation outcomes. For firms with less complex innovation outcomes, regional factors seem not to play a pivotal role. For these innovators, internal resources as well as formal collaboration with external partners have a significant role. |
| Keywords: | innovation outcome; location; agglomeration economies; knowledge spillovers; Community Innovation Survey |
| JEL: | D22 L20 O31 O32 |
| Date: | 2021–03–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2021_001&r=all |
| By: | Chao Li (University of Auckland); John Gibson (University of Waikato); Geua Boe-Gibson (University of Waikato) |
| Abstract: | In the last two decades the foreign-born share of New Zealand’s population has risen far faster than in other rich countries, raising questions about impacts on the native-born population. We apply spatial econometric models to a three-wave panel of 1851 census area units to examine impacts of higher foreign-born population shares on home ownership rates for the native-born. A standard deviation higher foreign-born share is associated with a one-sixth of a standard deviation lower ownership rate for the native-born. Much of the impact is indirect, with higher foreign-born shares in one area spilling over into lower native-born ownership rates elsewhere. |
| Keywords: | immigration; home ownership; spatial spillovers; New Zealand |
| JEL: | J61 R31 |
| Date: | 2021–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:21/03&r=all |
| By: | Sant'Anna, Marcelo Castello Branco; Iachan, Felipe Saraiva; Guedes, Ricardo Brito |
| Abstract: | We study housing supply in markets where informal housing is common. Using a combination of census and satellite data, we estimate housing supply for more than 90 metropolitan areas in Brazil. We find that widespread informal housing increases the housing supply elasticity, partially offsetting the downward pressure of geographical constraints. Our empirical approach is guided by a monocentric city model that includes informal housing. Our identification strategy relies on the use of two novel instruments, combining demographic data and public land ownership. As an illustration of the approach, we use the supply elasticity estimates to forecast the response of future housing prices to natural population growth |
| Date: | 2021–03–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:epgewp:823&r=all |
| By: | Dolores Gutierrez-Mora (Universidad de Sevilla); Daniel Oto-Peralías. (Universidad Pablo de Olavide) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses text analysis to measure gender bias in cities through the use of street names. Focusing on the case of Spain, we collect data on 15 million street names to analyze gender inequality in urban toponyms. We calculate for each Spanish municipality and each year from 2001 to 2020 a variable measuring the percentage of streets with female names over the total number of streets with male and female names. Our results reveal a strong gender imbalance in Spanish cities: the percentage of streets named after women is only 12% in 2020. We also observe substantial differences across Spanish regions, and concerning new streets, gender bias is lower but still far from parity. The second part of the paper analyzes the correlation of our indicator of gender bias in street names with the cultural factor it is supposed to capture, with the results suggesting that it constitutes a useful cultural measure of gender equality at the city level. This research has policy implications since it helps to measure a relevant phenomenon, given the strong symbolic power attributed to street names, which has been elusive to quantify so far. |
| Keywords: | Street names, toponyms, cities, quantitative analysis, gender inequality, women. |
| JEL: | J16 R19 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pab:wpaper:21.03&r=all |
| By: | Lazarus, Jessica; Bauer, Gordon PhD; Greenblatt, Jeffery PhD; Shaheen, Susan PhD |
| Abstract: | This research investigates strategies to improve the mobility of low-income travelers by incentivizing the use of electric SAVs (SAEVs) and public transit. We employ two agent-based simulation engines, an activity-based travel demand model of the San Francisco Bay Area, and vehicle movement data from the San Francisco Bay Area and the Los Angeles Basin to model emergent travel behavior of commute trips in response to subsidies for TNCs and public transit. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the impacts of different subsidy scenarios on mode choices, TNC pooling and match rates, vehicle occupancies, vehicle miles traveled (VMT), and TNC revenues. The scenarios varied in the determination of which travel modes and income levels were eligible to receive a subsidy of $1.25, $2.50, or $5.00 per ride. Four different mode-specific subsidies were investigated, including subsidies for 1) all TNC rides, 2) pooled TNC rides only, 3) all public transit rides, and 4) TNC rides to/from public transit only. Each of the four modespecific subsidies were applied in scenarios which subsidized travelers of all income levels, as well as scenarios that only subsidized low-income travelers (earning less than $50,000 annual household income). Simulations estimating wait times for TNC trips in both the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles regions also revealed that wait times are distributed approximately equally across low- and high-income trip requests. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2021–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt5f1359rd&r=all |
| By: | Schubert, Torben (CIRCLE, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | The effects of establishing foreign-based subsidiaries on firm performance have long been debated, where empirical evidence hints at gains in terms of costs reductions, productivity or growth. Yet, little is known about the effects on innovative capabilities at the home base. Using a matched-employer-employee panel dataset of the Swedish Community Innovation Surveys (CIS) between 2008 and 2014, we estimate whether the employee share at subsidiaries abroad affects product innovation performance at home. Our results show the effects are positive on average. However, there is also evidence of detrimental effects of having employees abroad on innovation. In particular, for excessive shares of employees at foreign location, we provide evidence of an inverted u-shape between the probability to introduce product innovations and the share of foreign employment. Moreover, we show that the benefits of foreign employment are larger for firms with a more nationally diverse workforce at the home base. Our results are robust to a wide variety of robustness checks. |
| Keywords: | Internationalization; Innovation; Diversity |
| JEL: | M14 M16 O32 |
| Date: | 2021–03–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2021_003&r=all |
| By: | Tushar Bharati (Business School, The University of Western Australia); Wina Yoman (Bain & Company) |
| Abstract: | We study the labor market effects of domestic migration in Indonesia on the employment outcomes of the natives and the migrants. To address the endogeneity of migrants’ settlement decisions, we use the information on the historical migration patterns from the Indonesian censuses to construct an internal migration version of the Bartik shift-share instrument. The instrument, used widely in the study of international migration, is based on the observation that even within countries, migrants tend to move to regions with a large migrant population from their region of origin. However, if the migration patterns are unchanged over time, past migration may affect current labor market outcomes directly, violating the exclusion restriction. To overcome this, we use a multi-instrument approach that lets us account for the long-term effects of migration separately. We find that internal migration is associated with an increase in migrant employment and a decrease in native employment. Less-educated natives in loweducation regencies are most-affected. The findings suggest that policies aiming to minimize the adverse effects of internal migration should aim at improving the human capital of natives. |
| Keywords: | shift-share instrument, internal migration, employment, natives |
| JEL: | C36 E24 J61 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwa:wpaper:21-05&r=all |
| By: | Casey B. Mulligan |
| Abstract: | The health costs of in-person schooling during the pandemic, if any, fall primarily on the families of students, largely due to the fact that students significantly outnumber teachers. Data from North Carolina, Wisconsin, Australia, England, and Israel covering almost 80 million person-days in school help assess the magnitude of the fatality risks of in-person schooling (with mitigation protocols), accounting for the age and living arrangements of students and teachers. The risks of in-person schooling to teachers are comparable to the risks of commuting by automobile. Valued at a VSL of $10 million, the average daily fatality cost ranges from $0.01 for an unvaccinated young teacher living alone to as much as $29 for an elderly and unvaccinated teacher living with an elderly and unvaccinated spouse. COVID-19 risk avoidance may also be more amenable to Bayesian updating and selective protection than automobile fatalities are. The results suggest that economic behaviors can sometimes invert epidemiological patterns when it comes to the spread of infectious diseases in human populations. |
| JEL: | I18 I21 J45 J51 L33 L51 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28619&r=all |
| By: | Gimenez-Nadal, J. Ignacio (University of Zaragoza); Molina, José Alberto (University of Zaragoza); Velilla, Jorge (University of La Rioja) |
| Abstract: | Daily commuting of workers is a complex phenomenon that has attracted research attention for many years and, despite the significant literature acknowledging differences between morning and evening commuting, commuting to and from work are considered symmetric trips in much of the prior research. We explore the asymmetries in time spent commuting to and from work, in seven countries, using detailed time use records from the Multinational Time Use Study (MTUS). We focus on the duration, mode of transport, and timing of commuting trips, and we provide evidence on what socio-demographic characteristics are related to such asymmetries. We find that commutes to work (usually in the morning) last longer than commutes from work (usually in the afternoon or evening), although there are quantitative differences among countries. The timing of commuting also differs across countries, although commutes to work are more concentrated at certain hours in the morning than commutes from work. Our results may serve for a better design of public policies that take this heterogeneity into account in the commuting behavior of different population groups. |
| Keywords: | two-way commuting, commuting symmetries, time use survey, Multinational Time Use Study |
| JEL: | R40 O57 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14235&r=all |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | One of the goals of education systems is to equip all students, irrespective of their individual characteristics, with market-relevant skills. Poor or inadequate skills limit access to better-paying and more rewarding jobs and, ultimately, to better living and health conditions, and higher social and political participation. Yet, inequalities in education abound. Family background, disabilities and gender all influence students’ trajectory toward fulfilling their potential. Boys, for instance, tend to lack the basic reading proficiency needed for today’s knowledge societies. The latest TALIS-PISA link report, Positive, High-achieving Students? What Schools and Teachers Can Do, explores some of the teacher and school factors that could play a role in bridging the gap in reading performances at school between girls and boys. |
| Keywords: | education, gender, reading, skills, students, teachers, teaching |
| Date: | 2021–04–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaah:39-en&r=all |
| By: | Taiwo, Kayode |
| Abstract: | Decentralisation promises efficiency gain and improved access to public goods and services, especially at the local level. Under decentralised governance arrangement, regional and environmental peculiarities are given prominent consideration in delivering public goods and services. Given the impact of the environment in influencing sanitation and water services, particularly water provision, this study examines the effect of decentralisation, as measured by revenue share and expenditure share, on improved access to sanitation and water services. Exploiting the variation in improved access to sanitation facilities and water sources using a static panel data estimator, this study’s empirical results suggest a positive impact of decentralisation on the improved access to sanitation and water services. The positive effect is larger in rural areas vis-à-vis the country level and urban areas. The study reveals that wealth and institutional factors are also important to improve access to sanitation and water services. |
| Keywords: | Decentralisation, Subnational government, Sanitation, Water, Panel data |
| JEL: | H77 O18 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:105426&r=all |
| By: | Michel Beine (Department of Economics and Management, Université du Luxembourg); Ana Cecilia Montes Vinas (Department of Economics and Management, Université du Luxembourg); Skerdikajda Zanaj (Department of Economics and Management, Université du Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we push forward the hypothesis that misalignment between expectations and aspira- tions crucially affects the educational outcomes of young adults. Using AddHealth, a dataset of 20,774 adolescents between the grades 7-12, we show that the difference in school performance between mi- grant children and natives lies within the aspirations and expectations that migrant children form. More specifically, we find that positive misalignment between aspirations and expectations is a driving force for higher effort and better education outcomes of immigrant teenagers in the USA. This force resolves the well-known immigrant paradox. Furthermore, this result is specific to migrant children and does not hold for second-generation migrant pupils. |
| Keywords: | Add-health database, aspirations, expectations, immigrant paradox, education achievements. |
| JEL: | I20 I21 I26 J15 F22 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:luc:wpaper:20-26&r=all |
| By: | Batabyal, Amitrajeet; Nijkamp, Peter |
| Abstract: | A lacuna in the extant literature and our desire to contribute to the theoretical literature on how tax/subsidy policies can be used by regions to attract the creative class together provide the motivation for this paper. The paper’s basic contribution is that it is the first to theoretically analyze competition between two regions (1 and 2) for mobile creative capital, the key attribute possessed by the creative class. Both regions produce a final good using creative and physical capital. In the first case, physical capital is immobile and only region 2 uses tax policy to attract the mobile creative capital. We compute the equilibrium returns to creative and physical capital, we specify a key condition for creative capital in the aggregate economy, and we show which of three tax policies gives region 2 the highest income. In the second case, creative and physical capital are mobile and both regions pursue tax policies to attract mobile creative capital. Once again, we compute the equilibrium returns to creative and physical capital and then describe the optimal taxes for the two regions given that they wish to maximize regional income. |
| Keywords: | Competition, Creative Capital, Physical Capital, Regional Income, Tax |
| JEL: | H20 R11 R50 |
| Date: | 2020–12–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:105589&r=all |
| By: | Xiaoqing Zhou (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) |
| Abstract: | Online appendix for the Review of Economic Dynamics article |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:append:19-339&r=all |
| By: | Prashant Bharadwaj; Manudeep Bhuller; Katrine V. Løken; Mirjam Wentzel |
| Abstract: | We use data on all middle and high school-aged children who survived a mass shooting incident on July 22, 2011 in Utøya, Norway, to understand how such events affect survivors, their families, and their peers. Using a difference-in-differences design to compare survivors to a matched control group, we find that in the short run children who survive have substantially lower GPA (nearly 0.5 SD), increased health visits, and more mental health diagnoses (nearly 400% increase). In the medium run, survivors have fewer years of schooling completed and lower labor force participation. Parents and siblings of survivors are also impacted, experiencing substantial increases in doctor visits and mental health diagnoses. However, there appear to be limited impacts on school-aged peers of survivors. While this event affected the entire country, we show that survivors and their families bear significant costs despite robust social safety nets and universal access to healthcare. |
| JEL: | I0 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28642&r=all |
| By: | Ray, Korok; Skorup, Brent (Mercury Publication) |
| Abstract: | Abstract not available. |
| Date: | 2019–10–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajw:wpaper:09496&r=all |
| By: | Dena Bravata; Jonathan H. Cantor; Neeraj Sood; Christopher M. Whaley |
| Abstract: | Schools across the United States and the world have been closed in an effort to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. However, the effect of school closure on COVID-19 transmission remains unclear. We estimate the causal effect of changes in the number of weekly visits to schools on COVID-19 transmission using a triple difference approach. In particular, we measure the effect of changes in county-level visits to schools on changes in COVID-19 diagnoses for households with school-age children relative to changes in COVID-19 diagnoses for households without school-age children. We use a data set from the first 46 weeks of 2020 with 130 million household-week level observations that includes COVID-19 diagnoses merged to school visit tracking data from millions of mobile phones. We find that increases in county-level in-person visits to schools lead to an increase in COVID-19 diagnoses among households with children relative to households without school-age children. However, the effects are small in magnitude. A move from the 25th to the 75th percentile of county-level school visits translates to a 0.3 per 10,000 household increase in COVID-19 diagnoses. This change translates to a 3.2 percent relative increase. We find larger differences in low-income counties, in counties with higher COVID-19 prevalence, and at later stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. |
| JEL: | I1 I12 I24 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28645&r=all |
| By: | Partha Deb; Anjelica Gangaram |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine the impact of school shootings on the human health and capital outcomes of middle and high school student survivors as adults in their twenties and early thirties. Our data on school shooting events is from a recent, comprehensive database of school shootings compiled by the Center for Homeland Defense and Security. The analytic dataset contains incidents from 1994-2005 in conjunction with Behavioral Risk Factors Surveillance System survey data from 2003-2012 on respondents 23 to 32 years of age. We find substantial evidence that, relative to their unexposed peers, school shooting survivors experience declines in health and well-being, engage in more risky behaviors, and have worse education and labor market outcomes. The effects among those exposed in the more recent past, 6-12 years prior to the survey, are consistent with those of the full sample. The significance of effects dissipates among those exposed earlier, 13-18 years prior to the survey. |
| JEL: | I12 I18 I21 J21 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28634&r=all |
| By: | Qida Su |
| Abstract: | Managing morning commute traffic through parking provision management has been well studied in the literature. However, most previous studies made the assumption that all road users require parking spaces at CBD area. However, in recent years, due to technological advancements and low market entry barrier, more and more e-dispatch FHVs (eFHVs) are provided in service. The rapidly growing eFHVs, on one hand, supply substantial trip services and complete the trips requiring no parking demand; on the other hand, imposes congestion effects to all road users. In this study, we investigate the multi-modal morning commute problem with bottleneck congestion and parking space constraints in the presence of ride-sourcing and transit service. Meanwhile, we derive the optimal number of parking spaces to best manage the commute traffic. One interesting finding is that, in the presence of ride-sourcing, excessive supply of parking spaces could incur higher system commute costs in the multi-modal case. |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2104.01761&r=all |
| By: | Marisa Miraldo (Imperial College Business School,); Carol Propper (Imperial College Business School); Christiern Rose (School of Economics, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new identification results for panel data models with contextual and endogenous peer effects. Contextual effects operate through individuals’ time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity. Identification hinges on a conditional mean restriction requiring exogenous mobility of individuals between groups over time. Some networks governing peer interactions preclude identification. For these cases we propose additional conditional variance restrictions. We conduct a Monte-Carlo experiment to evaluate the performance of our method and apply it to surgeon-hospital-year data to study take-up of minimally invasive surgery. A standard deviation increase in the average time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity of other surgeons in the same hospital leads to a 0.12 standard deviation increase in take-up. The effect is equally due to endogenous and contextual effects. |
| Keywords: | Peer effects, panel data, networks, identification, innovation, healthcare |
| Date: | 2020–12–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qld:uq2004:639&r=all |
| By: | Mohammad Akbarpour; Yeganeh Alimohammadi; Shengwu Li; Amin Saberi |
| Abstract: | We study dynamic matching in a spatial setting. Drivers are distributed at random on some interval. Riders arrive in some (possibly adversarial) order at randomly drawn points. The platform observes the location of the drivers, and can match newly arrived riders immediately, or can wait for more riders to arrive. Unmatched riders incur a waiting cost $c$ per period. The platform can match riders and drivers, irrevocably. The cost of matching a driver to a rider is equal to the distance between them. We quantify the value of slightly increasing supply. We prove that when there are $(1+\epsilon)$ drivers per rider (for any $\epsilon > 0$), the cost of matching returned by a simple greedy algorithm which pairs each arriving rider to the closest available driver is $O(\log^3(n))$, where $n$ is the number of riders. On the other hand, with equal number of drivers and riders, even the \emph{ex post} optimal matching does not have a cost less than $\Theta(\sqrt{n})$. Our results shed light on the important role of (small) excess supply in spatial matching markets. |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2104.03219&r=all |
| By: | Jeanne Lafortune; Ethan G. Lewis; José Pablo Martínez; José Tessada |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates returns to scale for manufacturing industries around the turn of the twentieth century in the United States by exploiting an industry-city panel data for the years 1880-1930. We estimate decreasing returns to scale on average over the period, contrary to most of the existing literature, because our empirical methodology allows us to separate returns to scale from "agglomeration" effects. We also find that returns to scale grew substantially after 1910, mostly because the return to labor grew. We find that this was more marked in industries that were more intensive in human capital and energy at the beginning of the period and in cells that were less competitive. Overall, results suggest that technological change and lack of initial competition played relevant roles in the rise of larger establishments in manufacturing. |
| JEL: | J23 N61 N62 R12 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28633&r=all |
| By: | Qiao Wang (School of Economics and Management, Southeast University); Xiuyan Liu (School of Economics and Management, Southeast University); Sam Hak Kan Tang (Business School, The University of Western Australia) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causal effect of land use policy on employment growth in Chinese cities. We find that a stricter Floor Area Ratio Regulation (FARR) leads to a reduction in employment growth in Chinese cities- a one standard deviation reduction in FARR leads to a concurrent reduction of employment growth by 1.1-1.6 percentage points. More populated cities and labour-intensive manufacturing industries are found to be more severely affected by stricter FARR. Moreover, the effect of a stricter FARR is found to be less pronounced on state-owned firms compared to foreign-owned and privately-owned firms. Our main conclusions are robust to a variety of sensitivity tests, different instruments and alternative estimators. They suggest that imposing a stricter legal FARR incurs considerable employment costs for Chinese cities. |
| Keywords: | Land Use Policy; Floor Area Ratio Regulation; Employment Growth; Latitude; Earthquake Protection |
| JEL: | R52 R14 R11 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwa:wpaper:21-08&r=all |
| By: | Qida Su; David Z. W. Wang |
| Abstract: | Flextime is one of the efficient approaches in travel demand management to reduce peak hour congestion and encourage social distancing in epidemic prevention. Previous literature has developed bi-level models of the work starting time choice considering both labor output and urban mobility. Yet, most analytical studies assume the single trip purpose in peak hours (to work) only and do not consider the household travels (daycare drop-off/pick-up). In fact, as one of the main reasons to adopt flextime, household travel plays an influential role in travelers' decision making on work schedule selection. On this account, we incorporate household travels into the work starting time choice model in this study. Both short-run travel behaviours and long-run work start time selection of heterogenous commuters are examined under agglomeration economies. If flextime is not flexible enough, commuters tend to agglomerate in work schedule choice at long-run equilibrium. Further, we analyze optimal schedule choices with two system performance indicators. For total commuting cost, it is found that the rigid school schedule for households may impede the benefits of flextime in commuting cost saving. In terms of total net benefit, while work schedule agglomeration of all commuters leads to the maximum in some cases, the polarized agglomeration of the two heterogenous groups can never achieve the optimum. |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2104.00938&r=all |
| By: | S. Chandrasekhar (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Karthikeya Naraparaju (Indian Institute of Management, Indore); Ajay Sharma (Indian Institute of Management, Indore) |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on spatial disparities in household earnings in rural and urban India. A point of departure from the existing literature on inequality in India is that we focus on household earnings rather than consumption expenditure. We analyse data from the nationally representative Periodic Labour Force Survey 2018-19. We provide a rich description of distribution of rural and urban monthly per capita household earning at the national and sub-national level and estimates of earnings inequality. While there are a multitude of factors that affect the evolution of income inequality, we focus on the salience of urbanization in explaining differences in inequality at the sub-national level vis a vis India. The results of the decomposition exercise help identify the proximate factors behind inequality differentials across various states. We situate our findings within the Kuznets framework and the stylized facts in the extant literature |
| Keywords: | Households Earnings, Inequality, Urbanization, India, Decomposition |
| JEL: | D31 D63 R1 |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2021-009&r=all |
| By: | Hamilton, Emily (Mercury Publication) |
| Abstract: | Abstract not available. |
| Date: | 2019–09–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajw:wpaper:09893&r=all |
| By: | Julian Ramajo; Miguel A. Marquez; Geoffrey J. D. Hewings |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a new specification for the nonparametric production-frontier based on Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) when dealing with decision-making units whose economic performances are correlated with those of the neighbors (spatial dependence). To illustrate the bias reduction that the SpDEA provides with respect to standard DEA methods, an analysis of the regional production frontiers for the NUTS-2 European regions during the period 2000-2014 was carried out. The estimated SpDEA scores show a bimodal distribution do not detected by the standard DEA estimates. The results confirm the crucial role of space, offering important new insights on both the causes of regional disparities in labour productivity and the observed polarization of the European distribution of per capita income. |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2103.14063&r=all |
| By: | Ikeda, Kiyohiro; Osawa, Minoru; Takayama, Yuki |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to capture characteristic agglomeration patterns in population data in Germany from 1987 to 2011, encompassing pre- and post-unification periods. We utilize a group-theoretic double Fourier spectrum analysis procedure (Ikeda et al., 2018) as a systematic means to capture characteristic agglomeration patterns in population data. Among a plethora of patterns to be self-organized from a uniform state, we focus on a megalopolis pattern, a rhombic pattern, and a core--satellite pattern (a downtown surrounded by hexagonal satellite cities). As the technical contribution of this paper, we newly introduce a principal vector as a superposition of these patterns in order to grasp the multi-scale nature of agglomerations. Benchmark spectra for these patterns are advanced and are found in the population data of Germany in 2011. An incremental population is investigated using this principal vector to successfully detect a shift of predominant population increase/decrease patterns in the pre- and post-unification periods. |
| Keywords: | Central place theory City distribution Core--satellite pattern German reunification Hexagons Megalopolis Spectrum analysis |
| JEL: | R0 |
| Date: | 2021–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:106938&r=all |
| By: | ; Andrew F. Haughwout; Haoyang Liu; Xiaohan Zhang |
| Abstract: | Housing represents the largest asset owned by most households and is a major means of wealth accumulation, particularly for the middle class. Yet there is limited understanding of how households view housing as an investment relative to financial assets, in part because of their differences beyond the usual risk and return trade-off. Housing offers households an accessible source of leverage and a commitment device for saving through an amortization schedule. For an owner-occupied residence, it also provides stability and hedges for rising housing costs. On the other hand, housing is much less liquid than financial assets and it also requires more time to manage. In this post, we use data from our just released SCE Housing Survey to answer several questions about how households view this choice: Do households view housing as a good investment choice in comparison to financial assets, such as stocks? Are there cross-sectional differences in preferences for housing as an investment? What are the factors households consider when making an investment choice between housing and financial assets? |
| Keywords: | housing; homeownership; financial assets |
| JEL: | D14 G11 G21 |
| Date: | 2021–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:90654&r=all |
| By: | Pan, Alexandra; Shaheen, Susan PhD |
| Abstract: | Shared mobility is gaining traction in the transportation community as a potentially more environmentally friendly alternative to automobile travel and complement to public transit. However, adoption and use of shared mobility by low-income individuals lags behind other demographic groups. Additional research is needed to better understand the transportation needs of low-income travelers and how public agencies, community-based organizations, and shared mobility operators can work together to best serve those needs. This research fills gaps in understanding the potential policy strategies that could be effective at increasing the access, awareness, and use of shared mobility by low-income individuals. We employ Oakland, California as our primary study site (see Figure 1 and Table 1 for more detail). In this report, we present our findings on barriers to shared mobility from a review of existing shared mobility social equity initiatives, expert interviews (n=13) and focus groups with rent burdened residents of East Oakland (n=24). We further investigate barriers and implications for transportation use in an online survey (n=177), as well as longitudinal panel of phone and video interviews (n=31) with rent burdened Oakland residents. Rent burden refers to the percentage of income spent on rent and can more widely capture the population of Oakland residents who are struggling to keep up with rising housing costs. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2021–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt327773q9&r=all |